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Fighter Notes:
Joel Alvarez
4th UFC Fight (2-1)After losing his 2019 UFC debut in a decision against Damir Ismagulov (19-1), Alvarez bounced back nicely with a R2 KO in his second UFC fight. He followed that up with a R1 Guillotine Choke over Joe Duffy—the guy who once beat Connor McGregor.
An expert at submitting opponents off his back, 15 of Alvarez’s 17 wins have come by submission and he choked his opponents out in 14 of those. He has four wins by Guillotine Choke, seven by Triangle Choke, one by Brabo Choke, two by Anaconda Choke and one by Armbar. Because he’s so comfortable working off of his back, he seems to welcome takedowns from his opponents. There have only been three attempted takedowns against him so far in the UFC, but all three have been successful.
Now 17-2 as a pro, Alvarez has only been finished early once, which came in a 2015 R1 KO in his 6th pro fight. The only decision he’s ever been part of came in his UFC debut loss and his two wins that weren’t by submission came by KO. Of his 17 wins, 11 came in R1 and he’s only been to the third round twice in his 19 fights.
At 6’3” Alvarez is a towering Lightweight who’s accustomed to being the taller fighter. His past UFC opponents have stood 5’9”, 6’0”, and 5’10”. This will be his first time facing someone his own height in the UFC. He will still have a 3” reach advantage however.
Alexander Yakovlev
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Coming off a decision loss to Roosevelt Roberts, Yakovlev has now lost 3 of his last 4 and 5 of his total 8 UFC fights. Four of those losses have ended in decisions with the other coming by a 2016 R2 Armbar against Zak Cummings. His last two wins were a 2019 R2 Guillotine submission and a 2016 R1 KO. His only other UFC win ended in a decision. He survived for 15 minutes in a decision against Kamara Usman in 2016, but got manhandled along the way, only landing eight significant strikes in a smothering defeat. In his career, 18 of his 25 wins have come early, as have 5 of his 10 losses.
He averages 1.56 takedowns landed/15 min., and in his last three fights he went 3 for 8, 1 for 2, and 1 for 2 in takedowns. His only UFC fight where he didn’t attempt at least two takedowns was against Usman, and we’ve seen him attempt as many as nine in the past. He hasn’t shied away from taking submission specialists to the ground in his previous fights, so we have no reason to think he’ll change that now.
Yakovlev has fought as heavy as 205 lb in the past, but had been at 170 lb since 2010, until he briefly dropped to 155 lb after losing his first two UFC fights. After one win at 155 lb he moved back up to 170 lb for three more fights where he went 1-2 before dropping back to 155 lb in 2019. He’s actually done his best work at 155 lb as he went 1-4 at 170 lb but is 2-1 at 155 lb. He’s incredibly lean at 155 lb even drawing comparisons to The Machinist in his last fight from the commentators.
Alvarez has shown he only needs you to take him down once to end a fight from his back and Yakovlev should afford him a couple of opportunities. We like Alvarez to land a submission in the first two rounds in this one, and hopefully going from the cheapest fighter on the slate in his last match to one of the most expensive in this one will keep his ownership under control. We have seen the odds move in Yakovlev’s favor during the week so that will be something to monitor up until lock.
UPDATE: Alvarez missed weight by 3.5 lb and will forfeit 30% of his fight purse. Interestingly he weighed in pretty early, so most likely once he realized he wasn’t going to meet weight he stopped trying. This fight was booked not too far out so he does have that excuse to use.
Miranda Maverick
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Now making her UFC debut, after withdrawing from her originally scheduled debut against Mara Borella on June 27th, Maverick comes in on a three fight winning streak. A submission specialist, Maverick is unlikely to land a KO with her pitter patter punches, but she has ended five of her seven wins early with submissions.
Both of her losses have come in decisions, but she only has a total of nine fights and we’ve yet to see anyone test her chin. That trend should continue in this fight.
Maverick opened the week as a -360 favorite and it’s only gotten wider as the week went on. That’s a little surprising for a young fighter making her UFC debut, going against an opponent with at least some UFC experience and coming off a R1 submission.
Liana Jojua
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)After looking completely lost in a wretched UFC debut at 135 lb, armbar specialist Jojua dropped down to 125 lb and one-trick-ponied her way into a R1 Armbar submission over solid striker and terrible game planner Diana Belbita.
Five of Jojua’s six submission wins have now come by Armbar, with the other coming by Heel Hook. Jojua does have one KO on her record but it came in her second pro fight against an opponent who’d never fought before. She’s not a real threat on her feet. Only two of her 11 career fights have made it to the judges, with her winning one of them, in her fight just prior to joining the UFC. Seven of her last eight fights have ended early.
Jojua knows nothing of the UFC outside of Abu Dhabi, as both of her previous two bouts have been there as well. Speaking of feeling right at home, both of these women prefer to fight on the ground. Even when you combine their average strikes landed, it’s still below the average of the vast majority of the individual fighters on the slate.
With similar skill sets, it will be interesting to see the game plans for these two women. Sometimes when you match up two grapplers you end with a standup brawl, but we don’t see that happening here. In a fight that will likely have one of the lowest number of significant strikes landed per minute, this looks like a R1 submission or bust for both ladies.
There is a chance that they rack up takedowns and advances/submission attempts to prop up their scores, but that would likely only go as far as keeping a R2 finish in play—especially for the much cheaper Jojua. It will be very difficult for Maverick to return value priced at $9,300 on DraftKings and $20 on FanDuel. She would legitimately have to be a top 2 or 3 scorer on the slate which would likely require not only a R1 submission, but also multiple takedowns and advances/submission attempts (depending on which site you’re on). A single takedown and R1 submission isn’t going to cut it.
We think these fighters are actually pretty similar, with Maverick just having a slight strength advantage. If either lady slips up they could quickly find themselves getting submitted, but that’s the only way either of them score decently. We saw last week how stingy the score keepers are on Fight Island with classifying strikes as significant (R.I.P. Park). On the premise that the odds are too wide, it makes sense to have some limited exposure to the value presented in Jojua and hope Maverick gets overly aggressive with her ground position and leaves herself open to Armbar. It’s more probable that Maverick wins in either the later rounds or by decision, but as we mentioned that’s unlikely to truly benefit anyone that plays her.
Da-Un Jung
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Riding a 12 fight win streak with 11 of those coming early, Jung is 2-0 in the UFC and coming off a R1 KO of Mike Rodriguez. Jung’s only two career losses came in his first 3 pro fights, both in 2015—one by submission and the other in a decision. He has five R1 career wins, 10 career KO wins and 2 submission victories. However, his five wins prior to the most recent one all made it into R2 and two of his last three saw a third round.
He demonstrated a solid chin in his UFC debut, taking everything Khadis Ibragimov could throw at him, before eventually submitting Ibragimov in the third round.
Jung will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage and is 8 years younger than journeyman Sam Alvey.
Sam Alvey
20th UFC Fight (10-9)On a less impressive streak of his own, Alvey has dropped four straight fights and now hasn’t won in over two years. While his last two losses both came in decisions, he was KO’d in the two prior—both times in the first six minutes of action. One of those two KO’s came against 500-year-old Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Five of Alvey’s last seven losses have now ended in decisions. The only person to ever submit Alvey was Gerald Meerschaert in a 2010 R5 Guillotine Choke. And limiting his upside, four of his last five wins came by decision.
Alvey’s last KO victory came in 2018 against Marcin Prachnio who’s 3 for 3 on getting KO’d in R1 in his three UFC fights. Hopefully people chase the 123 DraftKings points Alvey put up in that fight. That’s the only time Alvey has scored over 67 points on DraftKings in his last 12 fights.
It is worth pointing out that despite getting beaten up by Ryan Spann for 14 minutes in his last match, Alvey landed a hard right hand with a minute left in the third round that definitely wobbled Spann. Alvey then went for a hail mary submission with no luck before the clock ran out and Spann won the decision. So while we’re not giving Alvey a serious chance of winning, obviously anything can happen in a fight.
With a brain rattling 48 pro fights under his belt, Alvey seems to be pretty washed at this point in his career, yet simply refuses to admit it. If he’s looking for one last win to go out on, this aint it. Neither of these two fighters really goes for takedowns (Alvey has 1 in his last 10 fights, Jung has 0 in 2 UFC fights) so this will likely be a standup brawl. We like Jung to knock Alvey out early, but Alvey’s history of taking losses to decisions gives at least some reason for pause. Either way, we don’t see Alvey winning this fight.
Alex Oliveira
19th UFC Fight (11-6, NC)In a rare reversal of roles, it will be the veteran Oliveira who is stepping in on short notice, after Rakhmonov's original opponent, Zaleski dos Santos, dropped out. Oliveira is coming off back to back wins, but lost the three prior to that. His last four fights have now ended in low-volume decisions. He scored 61 and 63 DraftKings points in his last two wins and only 23, 24, and 27 points in his last three losses.
Oliveira uses his long reach and leg strikes to keep his opponents at bay. He’s only landed above 50 significant strikes in a fight twice in his career—once in 2016 and again in 2017. His opponents have also only landed above 50 significant strikes in a fight against him twice—once in the same 2017 match and then again in 2019. No one has ever landed above 75 significant strikes on him and 14 of his 18 opponents have landed less than 30. In his six decisions, the strike counts for Oliveira/Opponent were 45-29, 40-23, 18-31, 48-65, 58-12, 11-23. This lack of volume makes it hard for anyone to score well in his fights barring a R1 or possibly late R2 finish.
Only 4 of his 18 UFC fights have ended in R1 and one of those was ruled a No Contest for an illegal knee. The other three were a 2015 submission win, a 2016 submission loss, and a 2018 KO win. His only R1 win in his last 16 fights came in the 2018 KO against Carlo Pedersoli Jr., who went 1-2 in the UFC before getting dropped and has now lost his last three fights beginning with the Oliveira KO.
Oliveira has also had four fights end in R2 and four end in R3. His other six UFC fights ended in decisions. Oliveira has scored over 100 DraftKings points just twice in his last 10 fights. Most recently a 102 point performance in a R2 submission over Carlos Condit in 2018. The only other time was a 2017 R2 submission over Tim Means where he scored 109 points.
He’s only been knocked out once in his career and that was against Yancy Medeiros in R3 of their 2017 fight. He’s been submitted four times officially, but the most recent time against Gunnar Nelson in 2018 seemed to really be caused by a gushing head wound to Oliveira caused by an elbow to the forehead. The other three times came in a 2016 Triangle Choke against Donald Cerrone, a 2015 Armbar against Gilbert Burns and then a 2012 Triangle Choke in Oliveira’s second pro fight.
"He is polished everywhere. He has faced real competition. He looks like he's ready to take on a vet like Oliveira right now out of the gate."
-Dana White on Shavkat Rakhmonov
Shavkat Rakhmonov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Rakhmonov is making his UFC debut with a perfect 12-0 record and an impressive 100% finish rate. He’s notably coming off a 16 month layoff, following a 2019 R1 KO victory. He has seven R1 wins, including two in his last three fights. His last four wins have all come by KO, but he has five submission wins on his record. Only one of his 12 fights have made it to R3. He also submitted current UFC fighter Jun Yong Park (just beat Phillips last weekend) in R2 of a 2016 fight.
Despite all of the early wins, we think Rakhmonov looked a little tentative on tape. Also, the majority of his fights have been in M-1 and fought in a ring instead of a cage. We’ve seen many fighters struggle to transition from a ring to a cage. In fairness, Rakhmonov has fought in a cage before so it’s not like he has no cage experience, but it could still be a factor.
This will be a big step up in competition for Rakhmonov and it will be interesting to see how quickly he adjusts. Oliveira has shown he’s been susceptible to Triangle Chokes in the past, albeit twice in 30 fights, and Rakhmonov has two wins by Triangle Choke. However, we’re expecting a slower start that ends up in a low volume decision, most likely in Oliveira’s favor.
UPDATE: Oliveira missed weight by 2 lb and will forfeit 20% of his fight purse.
Casey Kenney
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Fighting for the second time in three weeks, this is Kenney’s fourth match in 2020. He started the year off with a decision loss against Merab Dvalishvili, but bounced back with a R1 submission win over Louis Smolka and then the recent decision win over Heili Alateng. Kenney viciously attacked Heili with leg strikes throughout the fight, but was 0 for 1 on his takedown attempts.
This fight will be at 140 lb catchweight, instead of 135 lb where Kenney and Woods have been fighting—presumably because of the short notice booking. Kenney started his career fighting at 125 lb until he moved up to 135 lb in 2019 one fight before joining the UFC. He did fight Ray Borg at a 137 lb catchweight in his debut followed by Manny Bermudez at a 140 lb catchweight. He won a questionable decision against Borg and followed it up with another decision win over Bermudez.
Kenney has been very consistent with his DFS scoring in decisions, with DraftKings scores of 83, 88 and 85 points. He did put up a useful 106 points in his lone finish that came in R1. 10 of his last 12 fights have now ended in decisions, but the two that didn’t were both R1 victories. His only two career losses in his 17 pro fights have both come by decision. He also has one draw on his record.
We went into a little more depth on Kenney’s past fights for his October 3rd fight, which you can read here.
Nathaniel Wood
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Wood is coming off a win in his only UFC fight to make it to a decision. He won his first three UFC fights early with three submissions—a R2 Brabo Choke in his debut, a R3 Rear-Naked Choke, and then a R2 Rear-Naked Choke. He then got KO’d in R3 against a tough John Dodson in his fourth fight before his most recent victory. If he hadn’t made the mistake of pissing Dodson off by kicking him in the nuts twice the fight may have gone differently.
Prior to the loss to Dodson, Wood had won eight fights in a row, all early, including three R1 KO’s prior to joining the UFC. Only three of his 21 pro fights have made it to the judges and all four of his losses have come early. Three of those losses came in the third round, but he was submitted once in R1 by Armbar. He was submitted another time in R3 by a Rear-Naked Choke and KO’d twice in the third round.
Wood has scored 101 or more DraftKings points in his last three wins, despite one going to a decision and the other two ending in R2 and R3 respectively. On average, he lands the third most significant strikes per minute on the slate, trailing just Da-Un Jung and Justin Gaethje.
Wood is the better finisher, but Kenney is the tougher man to finish. This has the potential to turn into an exciting stand up brawl, but each guy also averages over one takedown/15 min., so it could very well end up on the mat at some point. We think this should be a great fight that honestly either guy could win. Wood seems like a solid value play at his price on both DFS sites. He’s relatively cheaper on FanDuel and his solid 83% takedown defense and 1.1 submission average make him an even better play over there.
Stefan Struve
24th UFC Fight (13-10)Struve is coming off a cringeworthy R2 KO loss where we saw him spend more time hunched over on the ground recovering from low blows than actually fighting. We wrote that fight up for our October 10th slate that Rothwell was on.
From the October 10th write up:
“Late in R1 of that fight, Rothwell landed a brutal nut shot that kept Struve down for an extended period of time, even bringing the doctor out and having some discussion of ending the fight. In fairness to Rothwell, Struve’s balls hang at the same height as a normal man’s chin. Nevertheless, the fight eventually continued only to see Rothwell land a near identical blow in R2 that left the entire crowd wincing and Rothwell cursing at himself. At that point, the ref deducted a mercy point and again Struve looked on the brink of not being able to continue. With some coaxing from Dan Miragliotta and several more minutes of rest, Struve finally agreed to continue the fight only to get blitzed by a desperate Rothwell and KO’d a minute later. You have to feel for Struve and it’s hard to think the low blows didn’t play a factor in the KO. That was Rothwell’s only time scoring above 93 DraftKings points since 2014 over his last 7 fights.”
Struve has now lost 4 of his last 5 fights and 7 of his last 11. He does notably have a R2 KO win over Stipe Miocic on his record but that was all the way back in 2012.
SInce that 2012 win over Stipe, he’s won four fights: a 2015 R3 Decision, 2015 R1 KO, 2016 R2 Brabo Choke Submission, and a 2019 R2 Art-Triangle Submission.
Over the same period of time he’s had seven losses: a 2013 R3 KO, 2014 R1 KO, 2015 R3 Decision, 2017 R3 KO, 2018 R3 Decision, another 2018 R3 Decision, and the 2019 R2 KO.
So to sum that up, that was 4 early losses (1 in R1) and 3 decision losses along with 3 early wins (1 in R1) and one decision win over the last 8 years. His last three wins did all come early, while 2 of his last three losses ended in decisions.
While five of his last seven fights have ended early, his last six fights have all made it out of R1. The last time he had a R1 win was in 2016 and the last person to finish him in R1 was Alistair Overeem in 2014. However, he’s been finished in R1 five times (4 KO’s & 1 Submission) prior to that in his lengthy 41 fight career.
Tai Tuivasa
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Tuivasa comes in on a rocky three fight skid after winning his first three UFC fights and all nine of his pre-UFC fights. Two of his three losses came early, both in R2, while the other went to a decision. He did win his first two UFC fights with R1 KO’s before going to a decision in his third win.
Eight of his nine career wins have been by KO. Impressively, he landed R1 KO’s in his first eight pro fights. However, his first four wins came against opponents who had never fought professionally before.
Tuivasa has no ground game and it showed in his last fight against Sergey Spivak. He was once asked what his favorite grappling move is and responded, “Get up.” To his credit, he is decent at getting back up to his feet. He has no interest in going to the ground after knocking an opponent down and would much prefer to let them also get up.
He allowed Spivac to go 6 for 8 on takedowns in a little over eight minutes of time in his last fight. Spivac has averaged 3.46 takedowns/15 min. In his four UFC fights, but six of his career nine takedowns all came in this one fight.
The tallest opponent Tuivasa has faced in the UFC was 6’4” Junior Dos Santos who knocked him out. Struve will be a ridiculous 9” taller and have a 9” reach advantage in this fight. Tuivasa’s two UFC KO wins came against 5’11” Rashad Coulter and 6’0’ Cyril Asker. Tuivasa doesn’t have an especially long reach and will have no chance to land a standing head kick in this fight, so it will be interesting to see how he deals with the size of Struve.
Tuivasa is an interesting character and you can find him doing shoeys after fights, as long as an audience member provides the shoe and the beer. However, he claimed he quit drinking for two and a half months in preparation for this fight and talked about how he’s trying to take a more professional approach with this one—novel idea.
With 18 submission wins to his name and coming off a KO loss, Struve would be wise to try and take this one to the ground early. Given his high number of submission victories, it’s a little surprising Struve averages a meager 0.58 takedowns/15 min. His last two wins did both end in R2 submissions, but he landed just three takedowns combined in those two fights. And, he didn’t land any other takedowns in his last seven fights.
Both of these fighters have been struggling for a while, so this could very well be a battle to stay in the UFC. If Struve can get the fight to the mat then he will have a huge advantage, but Tuivasa has a much higher KO rate on the feet. Both fighters actually have 8 KO wins on their record, but Tuivasa did that over just 12 fights, compared to Struve’s 41. The only person to knock Tuivasa out in the UFC was 2018 Junior dos Santos. Vegas has this as a pick’em as of now, and that feels about right. It’s hard to have a ton of confidence in either guy.
Struve has only scored over 100 DraftKings points in one of his last 10 fights and that was in his 2016 R1 KO. Tuivasa has similarly only topped the century mark with his R1 KO’s, but he has done that twice in six UFC fights. So logically you just want to play for the R1 KO without going crazy on either guy. We do expect Tuivasa to land a little more volume, so when you combine that with his discounted price, it’s possible a R2 KO can still get you there in DFS—but that will depend on what the fighters priced around him do.
Magomed Ankalaev
6th UFC Fight (4-1)This is a snake bitten rematch of their last fight where Ankalaev "KO'd" Cutelaba in 38 seconds. It was a very quick, strange (terrible) stoppage in that fight where Cutelaba looked a little wobbled but was still on his feet fighting. He protested the stoppage immediately and it was clear the fight should have continued.
The only blemish on Ankalaev's 13-1 pro record came on a loss in his UFC debut against Paul Craig on a desperation, literal last second Triangle Choke. Four of Ankalaev's five UFC fights have ended early, including two R1 KO victories. He has a total of 6 R1 KO’s as a pro in his 14 fights.
"Cutelaba may be the most intense athlete on the roster. Magomed is one of the hottest prospects in the UFC right now. If this is a continuation of the last fight, this fight is going to be ridiculous."
-Dana White on Ankalaev vs. Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba
9th UFC Fight (4-4)This rematch was originally scheduled to happen on April 18th but the event was canceled due to COVID. Then it was rescheduled for August 15th, but was canceled again after Cutelaba tested positive for COVID in the week leading up to the fight. Seemingly rescheduled too quickly for August 29th, it was then canceled for a third time, this time on the day of the fight, when Cutelaba tested positive AGAIN. If any fight were to get canceled in the next day, it would likely be this one.
Cutelaba’s last five fights have all ended early (four in R1 & one in R2). He held an 11-1 pre UFC record with 11 of those 12 fights ending in R1.
Averaging 113 DraftKings points over his last three wins and priced at only $7300, he could be a popular dog regardless of his long moneyline odds. Despite Cutelaba’s DFS upside we think Ankalaev finishes what he started in their last bout. Look for a less ambiguous R1 KO victory for Ankalaev come Saturday.
It’s funny that despite these guys having their match continuously canceled and rescheduled, and with no other fights in between, their odds and DFS prices change every time this fight is scheduled.
When it was scheduled for August 15th, Ankalaev opened the week as a -300 favorite and had moved to -310 by the time the fight was canceled. He was priced at 9.1k on DraftKings and $19 on FanDuel. Cutelaba opened the week at +240 and moved to +255. He was priced at 7k on DraftKings and $11 on FanDuel.
Just two weeks later when the fight was rescheduled, Ankalaev opened the week higher at -335 and had moved to -350 by fight day. However DraftKings actually dropped his price $100 down to 9k while FanDuel kept him at $19. Cutelaba opened with worse odds at +275 and had moved to +290, yet DraftKings raised his price by $100 to 7.2k and FanDuel also raised his price up to $12.
This week Ankalaev opened at only a -270 favorite and therefore saw his price decrease by another $100 on DraftKings, down to 8.9k, while FanDuel left his price unchanged at $19. Cutelaba opened with better odds at +230 and DraftKings rationally raised his price another $100 up to 7.3k. However, the most notable change is FanDuel dropped his price all the way down to $9. So just to be clear, when Cutelaba’s odds got worse (+240 to +275) from 8/15 to 8/29 FanDuel raised his price by $1 (9%), but when Cutelaba’s odds got better (+275 to +230) from 8/29 to 10/24 they reduced his price by $3 (25%). Smart.
So while we like Ankalaev to win this fight, Cutelaba stands out as an exceptional value play on FanDuel. It stands to reason that he should be priced around $13, so you’re getting about a 31% discount on him.
UPDATE: One of Cutelaba’s corner men tested positive for COVID (this fucking guy...). While the fight is still scheduled to go on as of now, they did have a replacement fighter weigh in, Isi Fitikefu who came in at 203.5 lb. So if Cutelaba gets pulled again at the last minute, the fight should still go on—although it’s unclear if the replacement fighter would be added to the DFS slate (last time we got a replacement fighter the day of neither site added him to the player pool).
Lauren Murphy
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Murphy comes in on a three fight winning streak, after losing four of her first six UFC fights. Her last two, five of her last six and seven of her nine UFC fights have now ended in decisions. The only exceptions were a 2016 R3 KO win against Kelly Faszholz, who went 0-2 in the UFC before being dropped, and a 2019 R3 KO win against Mara Romero Borella, who’s 2-5 in the UFC and has lost her last four. The 2016 KO against Faszholz was good for 104 DraftKings points and was the only time Murphy has scored above 88 points.
Murphy has never been finished early in her 17 pro fights, with all four of her losses coming in decisions. Five of her eight KO wins came in her first five pro fights against opponents with records of 1-1, 0-1, 2-0, 1-2, and 2-2. Four of those five women never fought again.
More likely than not, we won’t see a finish in this fight and neither fighter is likely to land enough strikes to get there on volume alone. It would likely require a high number of takedowns (and advances on DraftKings or takedowns defended on FanDuel) for either fighter to put up a usable score in DFS. Murphy only averages 1.14 takedowns landed/15 min so it’s unlikely she all of a sudden shoots for 15. Her previous high in attempts is nine, but she’s never landed more than two in a fight.
Shakirova could potentially shoot for more takedowns, but Murphy has successfully defended 6 of the last 7 takedowns attempted on her, over her last 3 fights. Her career takedown defense sits at 67%.
Here’s Murphy’s UFC takedown breakdown:
Modafferi 0 for 1……..Murphy 2 for 3
Lee 0 for 3……………....Murphy 2 for 4
Borella 1 for 3………….Murphy 0 for 1
Eubanks 2 for 4………..Murphy 0 for 2
Honchak 0 for 0……….Murphy 2 for 2
Chookagian 0 for 1.....Murphy 1 for 4
Faszholz 0 for 2………..Murphy 1 for 3
Carmouche 2 for 8.....Murphy 2 for 9
McMann 5 for 9…......Murphy 0 for 0
Overall, we don’t think either fighter will land enough takedowns to make a huge difference, but Shakirova’s ceiling is somewhat of a mystery and she has shown she likes to go for big slams.
Liliya Shakirova
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Uzbekistan’s first female UFC fighter, Shakirova will be making her UFC debut on short notice after Calvillo dropped out of this fight when she recently tested positive for COVID. This fight was announced just nine days before the event.
Shakirova has won her last three fights, including two R2 KO's, however, five of her nine fights have ended in decisions. Her other two early finishes were a R1 KO in her first fight, against an 0-0 (now 1-2) opponent, and a R1 submission against a 1-4 (now 2-6) opponent.
Her striking looked pretty terrible in her 2018 fights but she looked like a different fighter in 2019, showing massive improvement on her feet. She has gone for lots of takedowns in the past—although as her striking has improved she began shooting for less takedowns.
For what it’s worth, she’s accustomed to fighting in leggings and a t-shirt, so skin on skin grappling will be a new thing for her when/if it happens.
Taking this fight on short notice and going against #5 ranked Murphy, Shakirova is seemingly set up to fail. However, the pressure should really be on Murphy here, as she’ll have no excuses if she loses and has little to gain from a win. Maybe that will drive her to make sure the fight isn’t close or possibly it will cause her to be a little nervous and come out tentative, we’ll let you do your own psych evals. Regardless, we see this find ending in an average scoring decision with the more experienced Murphy coming out victorious. She most likely ends up scoring in the low 80’s on DraftKings.
Phillip Hawes
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut fresh off a September R1 KO victory on the Contender Series, Hawes is on a four fight win streak with all four coming in R1 (three KO’s & one Rear-Naked Choke Submission). All 10 of his career fights have ended early, with Hawes winning eight of them—including six in R1. Both of his losses came in R2 and he has never seen a third round.
He was knocked out in R2 by a head kick in his first time on the Contender Series in 2017. After the loss, he didn’t fight again for almost 2 years before coming back in mid 2019. Apparently he spent some time traveling and then training in Thailand refining his skills.
He also didn't fight in 2015 after going pro and fighting 3 times in 2014. Hawes has a college wrestling background at Iowa state and then notably trained with Jon Jones in the past. He sometimes leaves his head open to elbows when shooting for takedowns and needs to work on his head position.
Jacob Malkoun
1st UFC Fight (0-0)After just going pro in 2017, Malkoun has only four fights on his record but has won them all. Three of those made it to a third round with two ending in decisions. He does have one R1 KO to go with his R3 KO. Malkoun doesn't appear as explosive as Hawes, but he looks like he wears on his opponents as fights go on. He shoots for a solid number of takedowns, which should bolster his DFS scoring if this fight makes it past the first round. Malkoun has also demonstrated better head position in the clinch than Hawes.
A training partner of Robert Whittaker, Malkoun was actually in Whittaker’s corner for his recent fight against Till. Malkoun had a short stint in pro boxing, winning all three of his matches. He also has wrestling experience if this fight ends up on the mat.
The UFC made this a top four fight on a PPV card, so they must have some confidence that it will be a good fight between two fighters both making their UFC debuts. Hawes is your typical R1 KO boom or bust fighter with his last six wins all coming in R1. Hawes opened the week as a -260 favorite which seems wider than it should be. So it appears the value is in Malkoun for DFS and betting purposes. If the fight makes it out of R1, we like Malkoun to win it, but if it ends in the first 5 minutes it will likely be Hawes who’s left standing.
Alexander Volkov
8th UFC Fight (5-2)After winning his first four UFC fights, Volkov has now lost two of his last three. He’s coming off a smothering five round decision loss at the hands of Curtis Blaydes and is surely excited about not having to deal with another wrestler.
While Volkov’s last two fights have now ended in decisions, 27 of his 39 career fights ended early. Living up to his “Drago” nickname, he has 20 career wins by KO, although he’s now had four of his seven UFC fights end in decisions. He did have three fights end in KO’s prior to the two recent decisions but all of those KO’s also came in R3 or later, which has kept his DFS scores subpar.
His only usable DFS performance came in his R3 KO of Stefan Struve, where he landed a massive 135 significant strikes and added on a knockdown, two takedowns and an advance. He put up a huge 136 DraftKings points in that fight, but hasn’t scored above 91 points in his other six fights. For what it’s worth, had he won a decision against Lewis, instead of getting KO’d in the final seconds, he would have scored 105 DraftKings points.
He’s only been KO'd twice in his career. The first time was in 2013 in R1 by then 12-0 now 22-1 Vitaly Minakov, and then most recently by Derrick Lewis in R3 with 11 seconds to go in the fight. Not that it should matter in this fight, but his last submission loss game against Maxim Grishin in 2010. His only other career submission loss came in 2009.
Walt Harris
15th UFC Fight (6-7, NC)Now 37 years old, Harris is five months removed from a R2 KO loss to Overeem in Harris’ first main event/5 round fight. Harris had landed R1 KO wins in his two prior fights. Impressively, all 13 of his career wins have come by KO, with 11 of those coming in R1. Although he would have had a decision win 2018 if it hadn’t been overturned to a NC.
Harris was originally signed by the UFC in 2013, but after losing his first two fights he was released for a brief period of time. After landing a R1 KO in Titan FC, he was resigned to the UFC the same year, but lost his first fight back. He finally got his first UFC win in his fourth attempt, but then lost a decision in his next fight. At that point he was on the rocks with the UFC going 1-4 in his first five fights, but he managed to tighten up and get back-to-back KO wins to bring his record to 3-4 before getting submitted in R1 by Fabricio Werdum and then unfortunately losing in R1 by DQ for an illegal kick in his next match.
At 3-6 in the UFC, Harris continued to try and dig himself out of a hole with his record. He did so with a R2 KO following the pair of losses. He followed that up with a decision win over Andrei Arlovski, but that was later overturned to a NC due to a failed drug test on Harris’ part. He tested positive for SARM, but it was later decided that he wasn’t intentionally doping and it was caused by a tainted supplement, so he only got a 4 month suspension. Following the suspension, Harris landed back to back R1 KO’s to bring his record to .500 for the first time in his UFC career. However, he couldn’t quite get over the hump as he lost his next fight in the recent R2 KO.
Eight of Harris’ last nine fights have ended early, with the only exception being the decision win that was later overturned to a NC. He does have three decision losses on his record, which came in 2011, 2013 and 2016. Typically his fights don’t last long, and 14 of his 22 career fights have ended in R1.
Harris was coming off the tragic kidnapping and murder of his stepdaughter going into his last fight, so he couldn’t have been in a much worse spot mentally. Obviously we’re not that far removed from that, so it’s still hard to say where he is at mentally at the moment.
This will likely be a stand up striking match that will rely on an early finish to score well in DFS. Although, Volkov did attempt two takedowns, landing one of them, against Lewis under similar circumstances. Volkov averages 0.72 takedowns/15 minutes and has never landed more than two in a UFC fight.
Volkov opened as the favorite and we’ve seen the line get wider as the week went on. We expect Volkov to land more strikes in this fight and he at least has the potential for a submission, unlike Harris, in the off chance this fight ends up on the mat. We’re not entirely sure what to expect out of Harris in this fight. At 37 years old, there’s a good chance he’s just washed and you’re chasing ghosts, but as a value play in DFS he does offer KO upside.
Harris has scored 102 or more DraftKings points three times in his last 10 fights—all from R1 KO’s. He scored 95 and 96 DraftKings points in his two R2 KO’s during that period, which at his price would likely still be enough to sneak into optimal lineups, unless at least two other underdogs outscore him. If the fight goes beyond R2 it’s very unlikely he’ll help you in your lineups.
We think Volkov is the better bet to win this fight, but it’s a tricky one to nail down the exact outcome of. Volkov hasn’t had a R1 win in the last four years, but he also hasn’t been finished in the first two rounds since 2013. We think you’ll want to sprinkle in both guys with an emphasis on Volkov but neither is a core play for us.
UPDATE: Volkov made weight but came in at 265 lb. He has never weighed in above 251 lb in the past and came in at 247 lb for his last fight. Harris on the other hand, weighed in lighter at 254 lb, after coming in at 264.5 lb for his last fight. Prior to that fight Harris had never weighed in above 258.5 lb for a UFC fight so he seems back in his comfort zone.
Jared Cannonier
11th UFC Fight (6-4)In one of the great transformative changes you’ll see in a professional athlete, Cannonier went from losing his UFC debut at Heavyweight to being a legit Middleweight contender in just five years. Talk about the road less traveled, Cannonier came into the UFC at 235 lb and got knocked out in R1 of his debut. Undeterred, he tried adding on 6 lb to be more competitive at Heavyweight. And it worked. He won his second UFC fight with a resounding R1 KO of his own. Nevertheless he decided that Light Heavyweight would be a better weight for him and cut down to 204 lb over the next several months.
Eight months after his first win in the UFC at Heavyweight he landed a decision win at Light Heavyweight over human COVID magnet, Ion Cutelaba. To this day, that remains Cutelaba’s only fight to make it to a decision.
Cannonier was then thrown into the Light Heavyweight gauntlet with fights against Teixeira, Blachowicz and Reyes in three of his next four fights. He survived to see decisions against Teixeira and Blachowicz but Reyes knocked him out in R1. In his fight in between his losses to Teixeira and Blachowicz, Cannonier did get a R3 KO against Roehrick (who took the fight on just 3 days notice).
Following consecutive losses to Blachowicz and Reyes, Cannonier dropped another 20 lb to move to Middleweight. Now 34 years old and debuting in his third UFC weight class, the late bloomer seemed to have finally found a home.
Cannonier seemed to hang on to much of his Heavyweight power, while gaining the speed and quickness of a Middleweight as he got leaner. Rattling off three straight KO wins, each in under 6 minutes, Cannonier shot up the Middleweight rankings and soon found himself one win away from a potential title shot.
He comes into this next fight seven years older than Whittaker and with little time left on the clock for regression. He appears to be the more focused and determined fighter, when compared to Whittaker, who has already climbed the mountain once and is simply looking for seconds if the opportunity present itself.
Notable in Cannonier’s career, he only began training full time going into the fight against Roehrick. He had previously been working a full time job and training on the side in Alaska. Shifting his focus to being all in on his UFC career, he went down to Phoenix, ARI and trained at MMA Lab for 2 months and then later relocated there permanently.
Cannonier has never been submitted and his only two KO losses came in his UFC debut and then in the fight against Reyes. His only other two career losses were decisions against Teixeira and Blachowicz. His last four wins have been by KO and 11 of his 13 career wins have come early—including 9 KO's and two submissions.
Robert Whittaker
16th UFC Fight (12-3)Whittaker is coming off a close decision win in a low volume fight against Darren Till back in July. That was his first fight since losing his belt to Adesanya in a 2019 R2 KO. The ho hum decision did little to reinforce the idea of Whittaker as a serious contender to take the belt back, and more so painted a picture of why fighters are flocking to the Middleweight division.
While Whittaker hasn’t been blowing people away as of late with his offense, he has shown consistent toughness winning 10 of his last 11 fights. And in fairness to Whittaker, while his last 3 wins have all come in decisions, two of those were against indestructible Yoel Romero—who no one has finished in the last 9 years.
Whittaker’s last two losses were both by KO, one against Adesanya and the second all the way back in 2014 against Stephen Thompson. The only other time he’s been finished early was a Triangle Choke submission in 2001, prior to joining the UFC.
Eight of his UFC fights have ended in decisions with him winning seven of those. His other seven have ended in KO's, with him winning five. However, his last KO win came in 2017.
Unshockingly, he hasn't scored well in DFS in his last four fights—despite them all being five round fights and winning three of them. He’s scored 88, 16, 94, and 70 DraftKings points in those fights. Going further back, he has scored well in his older KO wins, tallying 108, 117, 105 and 126 DraftKings points in his last 4 KO's.
While Cannonier showed he was at times susceptible to getting finished in the heavier weight classes, we haven’t seen a Middleweight come close to ending him. Whittaker seems less driven at getting another immediate title shot against Adesanya, while Cannonier appears laser focused. We think Cannonier wins this one with a KO, but given Whittaker’s history it’s entirely possible it ends in a decision.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
13th UFC Fight (12-0)Khabib comes in with a perfect 28-0 record in his 12 years as a pro, with his most recent two wins coming by way of a R3 Rear-Naked Choke submission against Dustin Poirier in 2019 and a R4 Neck Crank submission against Connor McGregor in 2018.
His two fights prior to those both ended in decisions, but that generally doesn’t stop him from scoring well in DFS. He did have two sub-100 DraftKings point finishes, both in three round decisions back in 2013 and 2014. However in his only five round fight to go to a decision he scored 148 points on DraftKings and 144 points on FanDuel. He also put up a ridiculous 156 DraftKings points in a three round decision back in 2013, where he landed a preposterous 21 of 27 takedown attempts against Trujillo.
Khabib’s Last 10 DraftKings Scores:
106 pts (2019 R3 SUB)*
105 pts (2018 R4 SUB)*
148 pts (2018 R5 DEC)*
107 pts (2017 R3 DEC)
120 pts (2016 R3 SUB)
139 pts (2016 R2 KO)
96 pts (2014 R3 DEC)
94 pts (2013 R3 DEC)
156 pts (2013 R3 DEC)
114 pts (2013 R1 KO)
* = 5 Round Fight
In his three five round fights he scored 115, 100 and 144 points on FanDuel.
In his 12 UFC fights, he’s had six decisions, four submissions and two KO’s. Only one of those ended in R1, which was his 2013 KO. As he battled injuries, Khabib went 2 years without fighting from April 2014 until April of 2016. Since returning, he has put up at least 105 DraftKings points in every fight. He depends heavily on takedowns and advances to score well, so if you think Gaethje is able to limit those, then it could be a bump down for Khabib’s upside. Khabib has improved as a striker over the years for what it’s worth.
Justin Gaethje
8th UFC Fight (5-2)On a four fight win streak, Gaethje’s last 11 fights, and 21 of his 24 career fights, have ended with someone getting knocked out. He’s 22-2 as a pro, with his only two career losses coming in his second and third UFC fights. His first career loss came in a R3 KO against Eddy Alvarez. His second loss came in his next fight in a R4 KO against Dustin Poirier. Both fights were absolute wars and Gaethje later said that he learned from the experiences he couldn’t absorb that much consistent damage moving forward. It shows in his stats if you look at his average significant strikes absorbed. In his first three UFC fights he absorbed an average of 10.52 SS/min. However, in his last four fights he’s practically cut that number in half, down to 5.45 SS/min.
He bounced back from the pair of losses with three straight R1 KO victories over Vick, Barboza and Cerrone and then secured a shot at the title with a R5 KO victory against Tony Ferguson back in May.
Gaethje is a great leg striker who looks to chop his opponents down early before attacking up top with heavy punches. He has a wrestling background and was a two-time state champion high school wrestler and an NCAA D1 All-American at University of Northern Colorado. However, he’s only attempted one takedown in the UFC and that came in his second fight.
So far in the UFC, his wrestling ability has served more as a deterrent for opponents looking to take him down opposed to as an offensive weapon. After successfully defending 8 of 10 takedowns attempted against him in his first three fights, no one has attempted a takedown on him in his last four fights. During an interview, Gaethje said he’s confident he can stay off his back, which is obviously a bold statement going against Khabib. He did seem to acknowledge that he doesn’t have much experience fighting off his back and he’d be screwed if he found himself there, but he seemed to write it off as an unlikely hypothetical.
Six of Gaethje’s seven UFC fights, including his debut, have been five round fights. However, only three of Khabib’s 12 UFC fights have been five rounders. Although, both guys have only seen the championship rounds twice, and the fifth round once. Khabib is just two months older than Gaethje and has fought only four more professional fights. Khabib did join the UFC five years before Gaethje though.
We could see this fight playing out similar to Khabib’s last fight against Poirier. Although Gaethje’s wrestling background certainly presents a wildcard. However, thinking that high school and college wrestling experience can hold up against the world champion Khabib may be asking a lot. Until we see someone beat Khabib, it’s hard to bet against him, but if Gaethje can do what no one else has been able to against Khabib and stay on his feet, then he’s as live as it gets. We just have a hard time seeing that happen, so we’ll say Khabib adds another notch to the belt here.
UPDATE: They had to bring out the towel for Khabib but he made weight. Interestingly he went first.