Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Fighter Notes:
Jessin Ayari
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off back to back losses and four straight decisions, Ayari hasn’t fought in 23 months after moving down from 170 lb to 155 lb for the first time. He wasn’t exactly active before the long layoff, only fighting once in both 2017 and 2018. He did have a seven fight winning streak prior to the pair of losses, but only one of those wins came in the UFC, and that was in his unimposing UFC debut.
He spent the majority of that fight evading contact as he circled away from his opponent, just looking to counterpunch for the most part. Late in the fight he got wobbled and knocked down, however he was able to survive and still won a split decision. In his timid victory speach he defended his performance from the booing crowd saying things like "I'm not a stupid fighter" and "I'm still young, I can learn" clearly aware that he did not put on a good show for his home German crowd.
In his second fight, he was offered up for Darren Till—although this was also only Till's 3rd UFC fight. Till showed up to the fight 5 lb over the limit, but it didn’t appear to have a negative effect on his performance. Ayari did less retreating in this fight but that could easily be attributed to Till’s methodical counterpunching Muay Thai style. Till was able to wobble and knock down Ayari in this fight marking the second time in two UFC outings that Ayari looked relatively close to being finished. Ayari did attempt an armbar submission in the fight and notably has eight submission wins on his record. But also worth noting is that four of those submission wins came in his first four fights against opponents who had never been in a pro fight before and combined for only one pro fight after.
In Ayari’s third UFC fight he dropped down from Welterweight to Lightweight, presumably because he realized he couldn’t hang with the Welts. Now realizing his size advantage, he started to push forward early, but was still tentative with his striking. He threw more faints than strikes and was still content with counter striking for the most part.
With all three of Ayari's UFC fights ending in decisions, he’s posted putrid DraftKings scores of 32, 14 and 65 points respectively. You might think that because 14 of his 21 pro fights have ended early that Ayari is a solid threat to finish future opponents. However, nine of those early victories came in his first nine fights against a much lower level of competition. And while he has eight submission wins, he only has three career KO's. Two of those came in 2011 in his 6th and 7th pro fights. The first of those came against a 1-1 opponent (retired 1-3 in 2013) who had his hand broken a minute into the fight. The second was against a Seth Rogen stunt double who came into the fight on a five fight skid, quit after the first round and later retired with a 10-14 record.
Luigi Vendramini
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Similar to Ayari, Luigi “The Italian Stallion” Vendramini hasn't fought in 2 years. The 24-year-old Sly impersonator is coming off his UFC debut and the first loss in his short career. He looked overmatched and undersized, attempting to move up from 155 lb to 170 lb for the first, and most likely only time. Following low volume first round, where he did attempt a standing Rear-Naked Choke but landed less strikes than you can count on one hand, he was abruptly welcomed to the big show with a flying knee followed by several sleep inducing punches in an early R2 KO loss against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
All nine of Vendramini’s fights have ended early, including six in R1, two in R2 and one in R3. Four of those wins came by submission and four were by KO. However, those wins were against highly suspect opponents who came in with records of 0-0, 0-2, 0-0, 0-2, 0-1, 0-2, 6-3, 7-5 and have combined for three wins after their matches against Vendramini. Six of the eight never even fought again.
Ironically, as Vendramini retreats back to the 155 lb weight class he gets matched up against former 170 lb Ayari who will have a noticeable size advantage in this fight. Apparently the Welterweights weren’t quite done with him yet.
Despite a 4" height advantage in this match for Ayari, both fighters have the same reach. However, Ayari should have a decent leg reach advantage, which should aid in keeping his opponent at bay if he opts for a more defensive approach. With that said, Ayari should have the striking advantage in this fight if he decides to get more aggressive. Vendramini is most likely more of a submission threat and with that in mind we’ll note that Ayari’s lone submission loss came in 2010 by Rear-Naked Choke. His two KO losses were back in 2012 and 2013, so it’s been a while since he was finished early.
This sort of feels like last week’s garbage first fight with two guys who we’d prefer to bet against than on. With both fighters coming off extended layoffs following a loss, there’s certainly an element of the unknown that we’re forced to deal with. It will be interesting to see how both guys look at weigh-ins and face offs but as of now we’re not excited about playing either guy in DFS. We think Ayari most likely wins in a low scoring decision, but considering the track records of these two, a finish isn’t out of the question. What we don’t see happening is this turning into any sort of high-volume brawl so the only way it scores well in DFS is with a R1 finish.
UPDATE: We thought Vendramini looked great at weigh-ins while Ayari was forced to drop trou to make weight. That was punctuated by Tiger-like fist pump when his weight was announced (real poker face on that guy). Remember, until his most recent fight he was up at Welterweight so a tough weight cut is entirely possible—especially after a two year layoff. If Ayari comes out rough early in the fight, look for the black belt Vendramini to potentially land an early submission.
Casey Kenney
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Now fighting for the third time in 2020, Kenney is riding the momentum of his first UFC early finish, which came on a R1 one-armed Guillotine submission over Louis Smolka back in May on just 10 days notice. That win came after an exhausting loss against Merab Dvalishvili who landed a ridiculous 12 takedowns on a preposterous 24 attempts.
In his UFC debut back in 2019, Kenney was gifted a highly questionable decision over Ray Borg. To his credit, Kenney took that fight on just 6 days notice and then Ray Borg missed weight. However, Borg controlled the entire fight and landed 7 of 10 takedowns while Kenney was 2 for 2. We didn’t see a lot of strikes landed, but Kenney did win in that department outlanding Borg 32-17.
Kenney’s second UFC fight came against a much larger Manny Bermudez in a catchweight fight. Kenney was able to edge out the striking advantage 43-37 in another wrestling style match that saw Bermudez land 3 of 4 takedowns while Kenney went 2 for 2.
Both of Kenney’s first two fights spent a lot of time on the mat which allowed him to bolster his DraftKings scores with advances and reversals. After the Bermudez fight he said he “wanted someone he could bang with” and he hasn’t landed a takedown, reversal or advance since. Ironically, in response to Kenney’s request for a banger they gave him takedown machine Dvalishvili. The matchmakers work in mysterious ways.
Unlike some fighters who specifically ask for striking opponents because they have no ground game to speak of, Kenney was a college wrestler who seems to have more of a desire than a necessity to be given striking opponents.
Kenney was finally given an opportunity to showcase his striking some in his fight against Smolka, landing 32 SS in just 4:27 (7.2 SSL/min). If he could sustain a pace like that over the course of a three round decision, while tacking on a few takedowns, then he theoretically would be able to put up a useful score even without an early finish. Smolka only attempted one takedown in that short fight and Kenney successfully defended it.
Here’s a summary of takedowns landed by Kenney and his opponents since joinging the UFC:
Borg 7/10 - Kenney 2/3
Bermudez 3/4 - Kenney 2/2
Dvalishvili 12/24 - Kenney 0/0
Smolka 0/1 - Kenney 0/0
Heili Alateng
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming off a R3 decision win over meh Ryan Benoit (10-7, 3-4 in the UFC), Heili has won his last four bouts including both of his UFC fights. His three fights prior to joining the UFC all ended with early KO's, but both of his matches since have ended in decisions. He’s been outstruck in both of his UFC wins but he’s been the one landing takedowns late. There were no submission attempts or knockdowns in either of those fights.
Most recently, Benoit outstruck Heili in significant strikes 68-47, but Heili went 4 of 13 on takedowns while successfully defending Benoit’s only attempt. Heili ended up winning a close split decision while scoring a modest 74 DraftKings points.
Previously, in his UFC debut Heili was outstruck by Batgerel 85-36, but landed 3 of 7 takedowns, all in the final round, while defending Batgerel’s only takedown attempt. Heili did appear to do more damage with his strikes and dominated in control time and despite the striking deficit, he won a unanimous 29-27 decision but only scored 69 DraftKings points.
Heili has been KO'd a total of three times, but two came early on in his career back in 2014—in his 4th and 6th fights. Both of those KO’s came in R2. His only other KO loss came in 2017, which was also his most recent loss, in a R1 29 second finish. His lone submission loss came by Armbar in 2015.
Impressively, Heili is 10-1-1 in his last 12 fights but seven of those have ended in decisions. He does have three submission wins—two by Rear-Naked Choke, both in 2014, and one Guillotine Choke in 2015. Since the 2015 submission win, all 11 of his fights have ended in KO's or decisions. The three KO wins were not against overly experienced opponents, entering the fights with records of: 8-12-2, 6-1 and 5-4. The one KO loss came against a tough 7-0 opponent.
Heili has a wrestling background but seems perfectly content with keeping things on the feet, especially early in fights. He’s not a high volume striker by any means and typically throws one, sometimes two punches at a time. He’s certainly not a guy that can get you there on volume, but he does throw quick, crisp strikes.
It’s worth noting that Heili’s 100% takedown defense is a bit misleading as he’s only had two attempts against him and those were by opponents with 25% and 0% takedown accuracy respectively. Kenney’s 50% takedown accuracy is dragged down by his 0 for 1 and 3 of 8 takedown performances on the Contender Series back in 2017. Since joining the UFC he’s successfully landed 4 of 5 takedowns.
Kenney has never been finished early in 16 pro fights and it doesn’t seem like Heili is too much of a risk to break that streak. This seems to set up for a three round decision with moderate striking volume paired with a handful of takedowns. It shouldn’t turn into a full-on wrestling match, like many of Kenney’s previous fights have, and as previously mentioned Kenney has expressed a desire to “bang” with guys. Look for Kenney to be the one pushing the pace while Heili is content with crisp counterstrikes. We think Kenney squeaks out another decision here.
Loma Lookboonmee
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Konklak Suphisara, or Loma Lookboonmee as she goes by professionally, is a Muay Thai champion and the first Thai fighter to join the UFC. While she has a lifetime of experience in Muay Thai, she’s still relatively new to MMA as she’s only had six pro fights and two of those have come in the UFC. Despite the limited number of fights, she was most recently matched up with Angela Hill following a victory in her UFC debut.
Prior to joining the UFC, 5’1” Loma fought at Atomweight (105 lb), which is not an option in the UFC, so she was forced to move up to Strawweight (115 lb). This may be less of a factor than normal in this fight, as Frey also recently made the same weight switch. But in general, Loma is a little undersized for the division. Loma did say that she added 9 lb of weight between her first and second UFC fights, and looked a little thicker, so she might be making the necessary adjustments. Obviously she will still be at a height disadvantage against most opponents.
In Loma’s UFC debut, she landed a respectable 99 significant strikes while only absorbing 53. She also tacked on 1 of 6 takedowns while defending 2 or 3, en route to a decision win that scored a not quite usable 85 points on DraftKings. However, she was unable to really build on the performance as she only landed 53 significant strikes against Hill, while absorbing 48. She did land her only takedown attempt and successfully defended 3 of 4 attempts by Hill.
Her clinch-heavy fighting style doesn't necessarily translate to high DFS scores and she hasn't really shown any sort of ground game outside of occasionally landing a takedown. Four of her six pro fights have ended in decisions. She does have one KO victory on her record but it came against then 2-4 computer simulation Hana Yamada (tell us we’re lying).
Because FanDuel launched their slate earlier than DraftKings, she’s only priced at $14 over there, despite being the slight favorite. The line has been moving in her favor as the week has progressed. By the time DraftKings put up their slate, Loma was more heavily favored and therefore priced accordingly. So while she seems a little expensive on DraftKings, she’s a great value on FanDuel, as the cheapest favorite in recent memory—not counting fights with opponent changes after pricing is released. She’s also defended a combined 5 takedowns in her first two fights so that will help her as well on FanDuel.
Jinh Yu Frey
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Frey is coming off her UFC debut and first fight moving up to Strawweight. She came out strong early in that fight against a tough opponent, but faded as the match went on and was ultimately submitted in R3. Frey has now alternated wins and losses over her last four bouts, but notably has never lost consecutive times in her 14 fight pro career.
Her last six wins have all ended in decisions, with all three of her early victories coming in her first four pro fights. All of those finishes were against very questionable competition, who came into their respective matches against Frey with records of: 1-4, 3-2, and 0-2. Two of those women never fought again and the third is now 2-11. So it seems fair to say, she’s never knocked out anyone decent.
Prior to her recent loss her last four fights had ended in decisions. She’s only been KO’d twice in her career. The first time was a 2016 R2 KO against then 17-2 (now 20-3) Ayaki Hamasaki, who later beat Frey again by decision in a 2019 rematch. 12 of Hamasaki's 20 wins have come early but 9 were by submission.
The most recent time Frey was KO’d came in R1 of her 2017 title fight against then 18-8 (now 23-8) Road FC Atomweight Champion Seo Hee Ham, who has now won her last 6 fights with four KO's. So while Frey has never KO’d anyone decent she also never been knocked out by a bum—so she’s got that going for her.
Both of these women are actually pretty solid strikers, but we still think this one goes to decision. We give the edge to Loma in a decent but not great scoring close decision. In terms of possible early finishes, we think it’s more likely Loma would knock Frey out than the other way around.
Jordan Williams
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut just three weeks after a R1 KO win on the Contender Series, Williams is a type 1 diabetic which essentially requires him to fight up a weight class as he can’t safely cut weight. His recent win was actually his third appearance on the Contender Series, so he has a decent amount of experience for someone making their UFC debut.
In his first time on the show he landed a R3 KO, but it was overturned to a NC when he tested positive for weed, which he uses medicinally. A year later he made his second appearance on the Contender Series against undefeated Ramazan Kuramagomedov. He ended up losing in a close decision that many (including Dana White) thought could have gone his way. All three of his CS performances made it seem like he was ready to move up to the UFC. Here are the stats from those three fights:
2018 1st Appearance on CS: (R3 KO W/NC) 94 SS Landed, 8 SS Absorbed, 3/3 TD’s, 2/2 TD’s defended, 0 KD's & Sub Attempts. (130 FD, 107 DK). Note: He took this fight on a week’s notice.
2019 2nd Appearance on CS: (R3 Dec Loss) 137 SS Landed, 175 SS Absorbed, 0/0 TD’s, 6/7 TD’s defended, 0 KD's & Sub Attempts. (100 FD, 69 DK).
2020 3rd Appearance on CS: (R1 KO W) 18 SS Landed, 14 SS Absorbed, 0/0 TD’s, 1/1 TD’s defended, 1 KD, 0 Sub Attempts. (126 FD, 109 DK).
His diabetic condition theoretically means he gets fatigued and bleeds easier, at least according to doctors. That’s not what we get out of watching his tape though. Williams was a college wrestler, but has a solid stand up game. His last seven wins and 10 of his last 11 fights have ended early (7-3, NC in those 11 fights). He has five R1 wins and two R1 losses meaning he offers high scoring upside for both himself and his opponents. Only 2 of his 13 fights have ended in decisions.
Other than the controversial 2019 decision loss in his second CS fight, his only other career losses came against Dwight Grant (10-3 now, 5-1 going into their fight. Currently in the UFC) and Rodrigo Vargas (11-4, 4-1 going into their fight. Currently in the UFC).
Williams has also made it his mission to fight for diabetics everywhere in hopes of inspiring people with what he’s been able to achieve. So if you’re looking for a feel good story on the card, this kid’s it.
"This should be an absolute barn burner" - DW
Nassourdine Imavov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Also making his UFC debut, Imavov comes in on a five fight win streak including four R1 finishes. Impressively, 7 of his 8 career wins came in R1 and only two of his 10 pro fights have made it to the judges. He has three KO victories and four submission wins—although three of those submissions came in his first three pro fights. He’s only been submitted once and has never been KO’d.
He normally has fought at 170 lb, although his last fight was at 176 lb (80 kg) and he did fight once at 185 lb in July of 2019. But all of his other fights have been at 170 lb.
With only two losses on his record, his only time being finished early came in his pro debut in 2016 by R1 Guillotine submission. His only other pro loss came in a 2017 decision.
His wins have come mostly against less experienced competition. Here are the previous records of the opponents he’s beaten going into their fights: 0-0, 5-3, 3-0, 0-0, 12-4-1, 1-2, 6-5, 9-1. We’ve seen far worse, but there are only a few guys with much experience in there.
Imavov will have both a slight height and weight advantage in this fight, but remains a slight underdog. We have seen the line move some in his favor and he should be one of, if not the most, popular underdog plays on the card. WIlliams is also making a very quick turnaround after his last fight and his medical condition will always loom over him. Despite all of that, we still like Williams to win this fight and put up a solid score in DFS. With that said, Imavov certainly has a decent chance of pulling off the upset, and if he does, it will likely come early. So you’ll want to have exposure to both fighters in your player pool. Overall this should be a great fight.
Charles Jourdain
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off a split decision loss against Andre Fili, Jourdain has never lost two fights in a row. After looking undersized in a UFC debut loss where he agreed to fight up a weight class at 155 lb, Jourdain moved back down to 145 lb in his second UFC fight and looked right at home. He landed an impressive R2 KO on Doo Jo Choi on his way to a 122 point DraftKings performance.
Jourdaine then went up against tough-to-KO Andre Fili in his most recent fight. Jourdaine came dangerously close to finishing Fili in the first round, but failed to capitalize on a knockdown. Fili bounced back in the second and third rounds taking advantage of Jourdain’s poor takedown defense.
All 10 of Jourdain’s wins have come early (three in R1 & four in R2) and all three of his losses have ended in decisions. This seems to indicate that he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate when he wins and as high a floor as you could hope for in losses from a DFS perspective.
Josh Culibao
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Similar to Jourdain, Culibao fought his UFC debut up a weight class at 155 lb against massive 6’3” Lightweight Jalin Turner. Turner handed Culibao his first loss in his relatively short pro career, in what ended with a R2 KO. Culibao took a misstep 80 seconds into R2 and appeared to injure his ankle. Turner immediately jumped on him and quickly finished him on the ground. Definitely a flukey way to end the fight, but Turner appeared to be in control for the entire fight before that. The fight lasted a tick over eight minutes, yet Culiabo only landed 12 significant strikes while absorbing 55. He was also 0 for 3 on takedowns so he really didn’t do much in the fight.
Five of Culibao’s eight pro wins have come by KO, including three in R1, with the other three fights ending in decisions. Those wins came against opponents who entered with records of: 0-2, 0-0, 2-2, 6-2, 5-0-1, 6-4, 25-10-1, and 8-8.
Jourdain is our favorite play on this slate. He offers elite upside, a DFS friendly fighting style, and is one of the biggest favorites according to Vegas. He also feels due for a win and hopefully coming off a loss will scare a few people away—although we still have him projected as one of the top owned fighters on the slate. Jourdain is the most expensive fighter on both DFS sites and we think it’s for good reason. We like Jourdain to get a late R1 or early R2 KO in this one.
Court McGee
17th UFC Fight (8-8)In Mcgee’s last trip into the octagon he welcomed tough up-and-comer Sean Brady to the UFC in October of 2019. Now 35 years old, McGee looked overmatched against the younger and undefeated Brady. McGee was, however, able to take it to yet another decision—as he has in his last six fights and 13 of his last 14. The lone early finish during that stretch came in a R1 KO loss against KO specialist 27-3 Santiago Ponzinibbio.
McGee comes into this fight having lost his last two fights and four of his last five. The last time he won a fight early came by a R3 Arm-Triangle submission all the way back in 2010.
Carlos Condit
17th UFC Fight (8-8)Coming off a 22 month layoff, Condit is in the midst of a five fight skid against a series of mid-to-top shelf competitors. He’s now 36 years old and has lost 6 of his last 7 and 8 of his last 10 fights. So he’s well past getting out while the getting was good. At this point he’s just looking to take someone down with him.
The best thing he has going for him is that his last two wins, albeit in 2015 & 2013, both came early with a R2 KO and a R4 KO. He scored a massive 143 DraftKings points in the 2015 R2 KO over Thiago Alves. For what it’s worth, Alves went on to lose 5 of his next 7 fights after that.
Conduit has a crazy 43 pro fights under his belt, winning 30 of those. He has 15 KO wins and 13 wins by submission. While five of his last six wins have come by KO, he hasn’t submitted anyone since 2008. Also working against him is that McGee has never been submitted in his 13 year pro career and has only been KO’d one time.
There doesn’t appear to be any upside playing McGee in this fight and you’re likely chasing a ghost with Condit. With that said, at least Conduit has demonstrated a DFS ceiling in [long ago] past wins, which is more than we can say about McGee—at least in the last decade. The only thing that makes you nervous about completely fading this fight is that 6 of Condit’s last 8 fights have ended early. But, he’s only been KO’d in one of those and that was against Tyron Woodley back when he was still good.
We think this fight plays out similar to Condit’s matchup against Magny and ends in a lower scoring decision win for McGee. However, if you want to throw a gross GPP dart at a low owned guy with theoretical upside, Condit fits the bill. We still think there are better options elsewhere.
Dusko Todorovic
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Undefeated Todorovic comes in having won all nine of his pro fights, with the first eight ending early. Five of those ended in KO’s while the other three were submissions. He had six R1 wins over that period. He’s coming off his first fight that made it to the judges, which happened on the Contender Series in August of 2019. It’s now been 14 months since his last fight.
Todorovic impressively is the only person to ever KO crazy man Michael Pereira (24-11). That happened in R1 of the 2018 Serbian Battle Championship middleweight title fight.
Todorovic’s hands down striking defense is dependent on elusive head movement to avoid getting hit in the face. He does have a solid chin, maybe that’s why he feels comfortable leaving it exposed. This tactic does seem to help draw opponents in and increase the pace of his fights. Todorovic throws a ton of volume and heavy strikes and is an exciting guy to watch.
Here are the stats from his 2019 Contender Series fight:
102 SS Landed, 109 SS Absorbed, 0/14 TD’s attempted, 0/0 TD’s defended, 0 KD’s and submission attempts for both guys, decision win. (Coincidentally that would have scored exactly 81 points on both DraftKings & FandDuel).
Dequan Townsend
4th UFC Fight (0-3)Having lost all three of his UFC fights to date, Townsend is likely fighting for any chance to remain in the UFC. Despite his 17 career early finishes among his 21 pro wins, he has not looked like a very aggressive fighter in what we’ve seen. His defensive fighting style does typically limit the ceiling of his opponents and he’s only been finished early twice in 32 pro fights with his other nine losses coming in decisions. His lone KO loss came in R3 of his UFC debut against jacked Dalcha Lungiambula.
At 6’3” with a 79” reach, Townsend uses his size more to defend than attack and will constantly look to use the clinch to avoid getting lit up. His only other early loss came via a R1 Heel Hook Submission in 2017.
Townsend did win his last fight prior to joining the UFC by R1 Guillotine Submission, but 4 of his last 6 fights have now ended in decisions.
He’s fought anywhere from 170 lb to 205 lb throughout his career. His UFC debut was on short notice at 205 lb, but then he dropped down to 185 lb for his next fight before going back up again to 205 for his last fight. Now he makes another change going back down to 185 lb. It would truly suck to be this guy’s dietitian, although they’re probably cleaning up.
Here’s his record broken down by weight (Note: We left out a couple of his early fights where no weight was listed):
205 lb (1-3), 195 lb (1-0), 185 lb (6-1), 180 lb (2-0), 175 lb (1-1), 170 lb (7-6).
For what it’s worth, this next fight is at 185 lb where he has been most successful.
We love what Todorovic brings to the table from both a fight and DFS perspective, but Townsend is a bit of a wet blanket. Maybe, he’ll have more of a sense of urgency now that he’s likely one foot off the UFC plank, but at 34 years old, he likely is what he is. His pathetic striking volume and tendency to slow down fights with the clinch will likely prevent this fight from turning into the exciting brawl that Todorovic would prefer. However, Todorovic is more than capable of ending this early if he can escape the clinch of Townsend. We like Todorovic to win regardless, we’re just hoping Townsend doesn’t suck the DFS goodness out of this scrap. We’ll say/hope Todorovic ends this one early but there is a good chance this is a decision let down spot.
Kyler Phillips
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a win in his UFC debut and now on a two fight win streak, Kyler “Matrix” Phillips has just the one decision loss on his 7-1 record (see what we did there?). He has five early wins, all coming in R1, and two decision wins. It’s worth noting that two of his R1 wins came in his first two pro fights against opponents who had never fought professionally before. He did have a R1 KO on the Contender Series back in 2017, but he followed that up with exhibition match loss on the Ultimate Fighter against now UFC fighter Brad Katona, which seemed to delay Phillips’ path to the UFC.
A Jiu Jitsu brat, Kyler started “training” at a ridiculous three years old when his dad got him involved with the Gracie academy. He now trains out of Phoenix, Arizona at the same gym as Sean O’Malley so expect some freakish nerve injury in this fight. Kyler’s high-volume fighting style lends itself well to DFS scoring especially as he mixes in takedowns and submission attempts.
Getting sort of a late opponent change, Phillips was originally scheduled to fight Danaa Batgerel before Danaa dropped out a week and a half before the fight and Else stepped in.
"They call this kid the Matrix, becasue he pulls off crazy shit, and does things that normal fighters can not do." - DW
Cameron Else
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on a flawless six fight win streak with all six ending in R1, Cameron Else has no desire to see fights end in decisions. 13 of his 14 pro fights have ended early including 12 in R1. He gets it done in a variety of ways with six career KO wins and four wins by submission. His lone decision came back in 2014 following a tough weight cut, and he looked like he had just run a marathon by R2, in what ended with one of his four career losses.
Like many of these fighters making his UFC debut, he has gone against some questionable competition. Here are the records of the opponents he's beaten going into his matches: 1-0, 4-0, 2-1, 3-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 4-0, 0-1 and 3-14.
As previously mentioned, Else took this fight on short notice and did have the one recorded weight cutting issue in the past.
UPDATE: Else made weight with no issues and while both fighters are listed at 5’8”, Else looked noticeably taller at face-offs.
Else talked about how he’s friends with Cowboy Cerrone and just like Cerrone, Else said he'll always accept fights regardless of the opponent and isn’t focussed on gaming his way up the rankings like some other fighters are.
We like the odds of this one turning into the fight of the night and for the winner to be a cornerstone in optimal DFS lineups. The only tricky part is figuring out which guy will win. The easy answer would be to say Kyler Phillips who’s currently a -460 favorite, and has seen a large line move in his favor. And while that’s certainly the most likely outcome, at least statistically, we love this spot for Cameron Else to pull the huge upset. You’ll want exposure to both sides of this one in DFS, but we’ll take Cameron Else in a slate-breaking R1 win over the biggest Vegas favorite on the night.
Also worth mentioning, Else’s R1 win line seems way too long at +1250.
Germaine de Randamie
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Coming off a December loss against non-human Amanda Nunes, GDR’s only two losses in the last eight years both came at the hands of the champ. If we’re tracking moral victories, she was able to survive five rounds against the Lioness in their last encounter, after getting mauled in R1 of their first bout. That was the only time GDR has been KO’d in her 13 pro MMA fights. She did get submitted once, but that was in her first pro fight all the way back in 2008. In between the two losses to Nunes GDR pieced together a five fight winning streak that included three KO’s with two in R1 and one in R2.
Her most recent “KO” came in a 16 second “did it start yet or what just happened” stunner over Aspen Ladd. GDR caught Ladd with a single right hand that dropped Ladd to all fours, but before GDR could jump on top to finish her, Herb Dean called the fight. It was no question a quick stoppage, but unfortunately we’ll never know if GDR would have actually put her out with a few more strikes.
With a flawless 46-0 Muay Thai record prior to joining the UFC, GDR is a pure striker who has no interest in taking the fight to the ground. Because of that she has been working on improving her takedown defense, which now appears quite solid against all fighter’s whose names don’t start with the letter Nunes. In fact, the only fighter to land a takedown on GDR in her last seven fights was Nunes—who did land 8 in their last match and 1 in their first fight, but who’s counting anyways.
Here’s a breakdown of takedowns landed/attempted in GDR’s last eight fights beginning with the most recent:
Nunes 8/11
Ladd 0/0
Pennington 0/8
Holm 0/9
Elmose 0/5
Pacheco 0/0
Nunes 1/3
Kedzie 2/9
If GDR’s takedown defense can hold up in this fight, then it will severely hurt Pena’s chances of pulling off the upset and make GDR a great play, especially on FanDuel where takedown defense is scored.
Julianna Pena
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Pena’s last three wins have all come in decisions, after she started her UFC career off with an authoritative R1 KO win as an encore to a R1 KO win on the Ultimate Fighter in the fight prior. Her only UFC loss came at the hands of current 125 lb champ, Valentina Shevchenko in a 2017 R2 Armbar submission.
After a brutal training injury where she tore her hamstring acl mcl lcl and meniscus, Pena didn't fight at all in 2014 following the Ultimate Fighter win and had to wait a year and a half for her UFC debut.
She had another lengthy layoff after losing to Shevchenko in January of 2017, and didn’t fight again until her most recent match in July of 2019. Now 14 months removed from that win, Pena has only fought once in what’s getting close to four years. Going against a professional striker like GDR, Pena will need to knock the rust off quickly if she wants to remain competitive (and conscious) in this fight. In her last few outings she looked to be somewhat of a slow starter so that is definitely a concern here.
All of Pena’s wins have come on the backs of her opponents—like literally, she takes them down, advances onto their backs and punches them repeatedly. It’s hard to see a path to victory for Pena that doesn’t include multiple takedowns and advances. This also means she’s theoretically a better play on DraftKings where advances score points, than on FanDuel. However, she is one of only five fighters priced at $12 or less on FanDuel so we understand wanting to play her there.
Pena’s only career KO loss came in R2 of 2012 against current UFC fighter Sarah Moras. If GDR’s takedown defense can hold up, we kind of like her to hand Pena her second KO loss in this one. However, another possible outcome is a wash where the takedown defense holds up but Pena pushes GDR against the cage for extended periods of time while we throw beer at our TVs. Either way, we like GDR to win this fight as long as she can remain on her feet.
Yorgan de Castro
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Yorgan “I don’t need no stinking nickname” De Castro is looking to bounce back from his first career loss, where he appeared to break a toe or injure his foot in the second round in a fight that ended in a disappointing decision against much larger Greg Hardy. Yorgan has six career wins in his short career, with five coming early—including four in R1.
He’s only had two fights in the UFC but he made a cannonball sized splash in his debut with a ring-rattling R1 KO in just 130 seconds. That followed up his R1 KO win on the Contender Series that landed him in the UFC in the first place. He landed 19 significant strikes and a knockdown in that Contender Series R1 win, which appears to be his recipe for scoring well in DFS. He’s your prototypical R1 KO or bust heavyweight.
Carlos Felipe
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Carlos “Boi” Felipe, son of Pedro “Man” Felipe, is hoping to bounce back from a disappointing R3 decision loss against Sergey Spivak back in July. The fight wasn’t going completely terrible for Felipe, until we saw his ground game. Fortunately for him in this fight, his opponent shouldn’t be looking to take the fight to the ground.
Felipe was 8-0 prior to the decision loss, but was coming off a two year suspension after testing positive for steroids in 2017. He has six round one KO wins but so far 100% of his post steroid fights have ended in decision losses. It’s a fact, don’t shoot the messenger.
Interestingly, neither of these heavyweights has ever been finished early and both are coming off their first career losses. They also both only have single digit pro fight experience, so we have less information to go off of than what’s typically the case—hence all the fluff in this writeup.
We like Yorgan to win this one, but wouldn’t be shocked if it goes the other way. Felipe seems like a live dog and we think he’ll be owned accordingly. Regardless of the winner, look for this one to end early as neither guy wants to be known as a decision fighter. Yorgan has openly discussed how he needs to make as much money as possible now, so he seems to be bonus hunting. Let’s see if he can bag a R1 KO.
Holly Holm
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Coming off a win in a three round snoozer against Raquel Pennington, 38-year-old Holly Holm had lost 5 of her 7 fights prior to that victory and since staking her claim to fame when she dethroned Ronda Rousey with a R2 KO in 2015. It’s worth noting that she twice attempted moving up to featherweight (145 lb) from 135 lb but lost both of those fights—not that this fight is at 145 lb, but it could help to explain some of the losses. The first time she fought at featherweight, it was to win the honor of being crowned the first women’s featherweight champion. This fight was against Germaine de Randamie in 2017. The second time was to try and win the same title against Cris Cyborg.
Seven of Holm’s 11 UFC fights have ended in decisions including 3 of her last 4 and 5 of her last 7. The only early stoppages in those last seven were a 2019 R1 KO loss to Amanda Nunes and a 2017 R3 KO win against Bethe Correia. With a world champion boxing and kickboxing background, she’s never submitted anyone and she’s only been submitted once.
Here are the results of Holm’s seven previous five round fights:
July 6th, 2019: R1 KO Loss vs. Amanda Nunes Holm SS Landed: 11, SS Absorbed 17. No takedowns, submission attempts or advances for either fighter. 1 knockdown for Nunes. DraftKings Points for Winner: 108.5
December 30th, 2017: R5 Decision Loss vs. Chris Cyborg Holm SS Landed: 44, SS Absorbed 118. No takedowns, submission attempts or advances for either fighter. DraftKings Points for Winner: 89
June 17th, 2017: R3 KO Win vs. Bethe Correia Holm SS Landed: 25, SS Absorbed 15. No takedowns, submission attempts or advances for either fighter. 1 knockdown for Holm. DraftKings Points for Winner: 67.5
February 11th, 2017: R5 Decision Loss vs. Germaine de Randamie Holm SS Landed: 77, SS Absorbed 80. No takedowns, submission attempts or advances for either fighter. DraftKings Points for Winner: 68.5
July 23rd, 2016: R5 Decision Loss vs. Shevchenko Holm SS Landed: 54, SS Absorbed 87. Shevchenko landed 3 takedowns and 1 advance. DraftKings Points for Winner: 91.5
March 5th, 2016: R5 Submission Loss vs. Tate Holm SS Landed: 59, SS Absorbed 40. Tate landed 2 takedowns, 2 submission attempts and 3 advances. DraftKings Points for Winner: 79
November 14th, 2015: R2 KO Win vs. Rounda Rousey Holm SS Landed: 38, SS Absorbed 17. 1 takedown landed for Holm. No submission attempts or advances for either fighter. 1 knockdown for Holm. DraftKings Points for Winner: 104
Irene Aldana
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Looking to continue her momentum after knocking out Ketlen Vieira in R1 of her last fight, Aldana has won five of her last six matches after losing her first two fights in the UFC. Six of her eight UFC fights have ended in decisions, however, all nine of her fights prior to joining the UFC ended early, with her winning seven of them.
All three of Aldana’s UFC losses have come via decisions—her only two career KO losses came in 2013 and 2015, prior to joining the UFC. While Holm was able to bore out a decision against Pennington, Aldana lost to Pennington in 2019 by split decision.
This will be Aldana’s first time headlining in the UFC whereas Holm has fought for five titles and headlined twice more—although she only won two of those seven fights. Aldana has solid power and volume and has landed over 100 significant strikes three times in her eight UFC fights. She’s also had three opponents land over 100 significant strikes on her, so she has no problem with throwing down. Unfortunately Holm’s slower pace is unlikely to allow this one to turn into a shootout.
It’s entirely possible that Holm uses her grown woman strength to pin Aldan against the cage for 25 minutes, similar to what she did against Pennington. However, if she can escape the clinch we like the younger Aldana to pull off the upset here. It will likely come via decision but it’s not entirely impossible she gets the knockout. However, we will note that since Amanada Nunes remains the only person to ever KO Holly Holm, a decision is definitely more likely. This seems like a good main event to fade in DFS for the most part, but it makes sense to have some exposure to Aldana.
UPDATE: Aldana was very slow to weigh in taking an extended period of time after the last fighter before her. She looked tired and to be moving slowly, typically a sign of a tough weight cut.