MMA DFS Optimal Strategy:

Looking for slate specific strategies? Check out Occupy Fantasy where Jake writes a weekly strategy breakdown for every UFC slate. Occupy Fantasy also offers high level DFS strategies, top plays and specific lineup tips for all other major sports.

Low-Risk Contest Strategy:

In low-risk contests on DraftKings (50/50s, Double-Ups, Head-to-Heads), you typically should play both fighters from the main event and then add in the best value plays with the highest floors around them, while also maximizing the number of favorites in your lineup.

Stacking the main event does two things for you. First, it generally locks in at least 100 DraftKings points (typically more). Second, playing the lower priced underdog in the main event allows you to fit in better plays in the rest of your lineup.

Generally speaking, in DFS the “best” plays are also the highest owned plays. Playing high-owned fighters in low-risk contests also makes sense because it’s easier to recover when everyone takes a hit than it is to catch up if you miss the bus. To elaborate, if you and 65% of the field play a fighter in a double-up and that fighter loses, you’re still on an even playing field with 65% of the field. However, if you don’t play the 65% owned fighter and that fighter goes off, now 65% of the field has a sizable lead on you and it’s much more difficult to catch up. Remember, in low-risk contests with more than two people you’re not trying to come in first, you’re just trying to beat the first loser.

On FanDuel, you generally aren't looking to stack the main event due to the pricing structure where they price the underdog relatively more expensive compared to DraftKings. Instead, look to maximize the number of favorites in your lineup and take advantage of mispriced fighters.

The easiest way to identify mispriced fighters (on both sites) is to look at the line movement, which can be found on The Sheet. DFS pricing is based on where the odds were when pricing is released, but while the odds change as the week goes on, pricing does not. So if a fighter was priced at let’s say +200 when DFS pricing was released, but now the odds have moved to +110, that price now presents a ton of value. The most egregious mispricing happens when a line flips or a fighter drops out and gets replaced by someone new (generally worse). So if you see the odds on a fighter go from positive to negative after DFS pricing is released, A) assume that fighter will be very popular and B) that price presents a massive amount of value.

FanDuel’s pricing structure is less rigid than DraftKing’s and oftentimes they will price fighters down regardless of the opening odds. So just look at which favorites are priced at $15-$18 and try to fit in as many as possible.

So to recap, our general LOW-RISK contest strategy:

Stack the main event on DraftKings
Maximize the number of favorites in the rest of your lineup
Target high-owned fighters
Look for reliable scoring floors more than ceilings
Focus on mispricing, typically based on line movement

High-Risk Contest Strategy:

For high-risk contests (Tournaments), you really never want to play both sides from a single fight. Your goal in tournaments is to hit the perfect lineup with the highest possible point scoring combination of fighters. Obviously that's no easy task, but if you're not playing to get first place then you really shouldn't be playing in tournaments and should instead be playing in low-risk contests. So while you're looking for high floors in low-risk contests, your focus in high-risk contests should be almost entirely on the ceiling. For example, a player that loses 75% of their fights, but puts up huge scores in wins is a bad low-risk play, but a great high-risk play.

Another factor to consider when building high-risk lineups is uniqueness. Sure, the goal is to get first place, but you also don't want to be splitting that prize 100 ways. The more unique your lineup is, the more money you'll win when it hits. Luckily, there are very predictable ways to make your lineups more unique.

The best three ways to create unique lineups is to leave salary on the table, play low owned fighters or fading the main event. Roughly half of the DraftKings field uses $49,900-$50,000 of the salary, so simply leaving $200 or more left over is a good start to creating unique lineups. Then mix in 1-2 low-owned fighters (under 20% ownership) and you shouldn’t have to worry about very many splits. Main event (5-round) fighters also averaged 78.6% combined ownership in 2021, while 25% of winning lineups in 2021 didn’t include a main event fighter. So fading the main event not only helps you to create unique lineups, it also is being slightly over owned in general by the field.

While fading the main event can be highly profitable when it works (25% of the time), that still means main event fighters end up in winning lineups 75% of the time. And that’s why the conventional wisdom in MMA DFS is to always include one fighter from the main event in high-risk contests, since they potentially have five rounds to score points while everyone else on the slate only has three (unless it’s the rare slate with multiple 5-round fights). For a more thorough breakdown of trends and stats from 2021, subscribe to our premium Patreon content and check out our complete research in our 2021 UFC DFS Year in Review guide.

So to recap, our general HIGH-RISK contest strategy:

Never stack fights
Focus on scoring ceilings, not floors
Use $47,200-$49,800 of the DraftKings salary in large contests
Build lineups with 1-2 low-owned fighters

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