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Fight Day Scratches:
Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Mario Bautista
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Bautista had been scheduled to face a striker in Khalid Taha here, but Taha withdrew and Perrin was announced as the replacement just Monday night.
Bautista is nearly a year removed from his first career KO loss, when he was knocked out by Trevin Jones in the second round in March 2021. Now 2-2 in the UFC, Bautista has been finished in both of his losses, after getting submitted in the first round of his UFC debut by Cory Sandhagen. In his most recent fight, Bautista was able to successfully defend all three of Trevin Jones’ takedown attempts, but spent nearly a minute and a half pushed up against the cage. The striking was nearly even with Jones leading 23-21 in significant strikes and Bautista ahead 43-36 in total strikes. Jones dropped Bautista with a right hand early in round two and then finished the fight with ground and pound as he handed Bautista his first career KO/TKO loss.
Prior to getting knocked out in the second round, Bautista landed a second round KO of his own against Miles Johns, who had also never been finished by strikes. That came from a perfectly placed flying knee by Bautista in February 2020, just over two years ago.
Bautista is now 8-2 as a pro, with three wins by KO, three by submission, and two via decision. He’s been finished in both of his losses, one by TKO and the other by submission. While 8 of his 10 career fights have ended early, six of his last seven matches have made it to the second round, with four of those ending in round two stoppages (3-1).
With a 70% career takedown defense, Bautista has only been taken down three times on 10 opponent attempts in his four UFC fights. On the flip side, he’s gone just 1 for 3 on his own takedown attempts and has failed to land any in his last three fights or even attempted one in his last two matches. He’s purely a striker and doesn’t appear to offer much when it comes to wrestling, although we have seen him look for the occasional submission. He can be a tricky guy to deal with on the feet as he switches stances and mixes in punches, kicks and knees.
Jay Perrin
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Perrin had been preparing for a five round CES title fight in just two weeks, so despite him taking his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice, conditioning shouldn’t really be a concern. While this fight was only announced on Monday, Perrin said he knew he was on the short list for the past couple of weeks, so he had been preparing as if it were going to happen.
Perrin bounced back from a 2019 decision loss on DWCS with two straight wins since, including a second round submission victory in his most recent fight for the CES Bantamweight belt. Interestingly, especially for betting, Perrin’s last four finishes have all come by second round submission.
It appeared that he had done enough to get the win on DWCS, but the judges disagreed. He finished ahead in significant strikes 43-39 and in total strikes 62-43, while winning the takedown battle 4-1. He appeared shocked when he heard the decision and it’s sort of hard to blame him.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Perrin has two wins by KO, four by submission, and four by decision. The only time he’s ever been finished was via a 2017 R3 guillotine choke, but he also has three decision losses, with two of those being split in 2015 and 2016. Since the 2017 submission loss, he’s won 7 of his last 8 fights, with the only loss coming on DWCS. He had two five-round decision wins over that stretch for the Cage Titans’ FC Bantamweight belt.
Overall, Perrin is most dangerous on the mat and is constantly looking to get the fight there. His last nine fights have all ended in either submissions or decisions, and the last time one of his fights ended in the first round was a 2016 R1 KO win. While his last fight ended in a second round submission, his four before that all went the distance.
Fight Prediction:
Bautista will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 69” reach.
In 2021, we saw a higher debut win percentage for fighters who initially failed to get a contract on DWCS but eventually made their way into the UFC. This was higher than both debuting fighters in general and those who went straight from DWCS to the UFC. In addition, Perrin looks to be more well prepared than your typical short-notice replacement going into their UFC debut, as he had already been preparing for a five-round CES title fight in the coming weeks. While Bautista will have the striking advantage in this matchup, Perrin is the better grappler, so the fight’s outcome simply hinges on whether or not Perrin is able to get it to the mat. There’s also the possibility that Perrin can spend enough time pushing Bautista up against the cage that he grinds out a decision win even if he does struggle to get Bautista down. However, if Bautista can keep the fight in open space he should easily be able to outland his way to victory and potentially get a finish, although Perrin has never been knocked out. It’s never easy to win a short notice UFC debut, but we like Perrin’s chances here and think he has a decent shot at landing a second round submission or winning a close decision. It’s also entirely possible that Bautista just outclasses him on the feet, so this is a high-variance spot that could go many ways.
Our favorite bet here is “Perrin ML” at +270.
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DFS Implications:
Bautista was unable to put up a big DraftKings score in either his 2019 high-volume decision victory or his more recent second round finish and now checks in as the 2nd most expensive fighter on the DraftKings slate. That’s likely a driving factor for why he was just 11% owned at $9,100 in his last fight (on a 15 fight slate). Now coming off a loss he’ll likely remain relatively low owned, although going up against a UFC newcomer should drive it up some. As a pure striker it’s harder for him to put up big scores without a first round finish and the last time he landed one of those was back in 2017 in his third pro fight. Also working against him, Perrin has never been knocked out in his career and will be looking to grapple throughout this match. That will make it tougher for Bautista to land a high striking total and he looks like a R1 or bust play. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Perrin’s grappling-heavy fighting style lends itself well to the DraftKings scoring system as he generally does a good job racking up control time and takedowns. It will be interesting to see how his skills translate to the UFC and after taking this fight on short notice, he has his work cut out for him. Working in his favor, he had already been preparing for a five-round fight for the CES Bantamweight belt a couple of weeks from now, so his conditioning should be fine. We like his grappling upside at his cheap price tag and a win of any sort would likely be enough for him to return value. However, if he struggles to get this fight to the ground or at least control Bautista along the fence, he’ll be in real trouble in a pure striking battle, so this is still a high variance spot with a wide range of outcomes. The odds imply Perrin has a 26% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Jonathan Pearce
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Pearce had been scheduled to face Austin Lingo here, but Lingo withdrew and Christian Rodriguez was announced as the replacement on February 13th, just six days before the event.
Coming off a second round submission win, Pearce became the first fighter to ever finish Omar Morales, who entered that bout with an impressive 11-1 pro record. Pearce wore Morales down with relentless wrestling as he landed 6 takedowns on 11 attempts in a fight that lasted just eight and a half minutes. Each fighter only landed 12 significant strikes, but Pearce led in total strikes 55-27 and in control time 5:33-0:19. It was a highly impressive grappling performance from Pearce, especially when you consider Morales came into the fight 3-1 in the UFC and with a solid 87% takedown defense after only allowing one takedown on eight attempts between his first four UFC fights and his appearance on DWCS.
Before the win over Morales, Pearce had been scheduled to face Gabriel Benitez back in May 2020, but after Benitez missed weight badly, Pearce refused to move forward with the fight. Prior to that fight getting canceled, Pearce put on a dominating performance against Kai Kamaka in his first UFC win, his second fight with the organization. He bounced back from a demoralizing R1 KO loss in his 2019 UFC debut, where he was finished in 93 seconds by a washed up Joe Lauzon. Following the rough loss in his debut, Pearce didn’t fight for 13 months after having shoulder surgery and then dropped back down to 145 lb where he started his pro career. He’s fought as low as 135 lb and as high as 155 lb in the past, but his DWCS fight and UFC debut were both at 155 lb, while his last two fights have both taken place at 145 lb.
In his win over Kamaka, Pearce entered the fight as a massive +260 underdog, but you wouldn’t have guessed it if you watched how the fight played out. Pearce had a commanding size advantage, as he’s 5” taller than Kamaka and was dropping down from 155 lb, while Kamaka used to fight at 135 lb. The fight started off on the feet for the majority of the first round, but Pearce started looking for takedowns and submissions late in round one. Into the second round, he then smothered Kamaka for the next five minutes until he eventually finished him with ground and pound.
Pearce originally got his shot in the UFC with an ultra high-paced R3 KO on DWCS in 2019. He landed a massive 142 significant strikes, 176 total strikes, and four takedowns before knocking his opponent out in the third round.
Pearce’s last eight and 13 of his 15 pro fights have ended early—including 10 of his 11 wins and 3 of his 4 losses. Now 11-4 as a pro, he has eight wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision victory. He tends to wear out his opponents on the mat, with only one of his 10 career finishes occurring in the first round. Six of his fights have ended in round two and three in round three. His lone first round win was all the way back in 2015 in his third pro fight and his last eight finishes have come in the later rounds. The only KO/TKO loss of his career came in his UFC debut, but he’s also been submitted twice, along with one decision loss. All of those other losses occurred in consecutive fights from 2016 to 2017 as he’s won 8 of his last 9 matches.
Christian Rodriguez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut up a weight class on just a week’s notice, Rodriguez is still just 24 years old with only seven pro fights under his belt. He won a decision over Tracy Cortez’s older brother on DWCS last October, but it wasn’t enough to get Rodriguez a UFC contract. He returned to the regional scene where he notched a first round submission just five weeks ago to remain on the UFC’s radar and when they needed a late replacement for this slate he got the call.
Rodriguez missed weight by a pound for his DWCS fight, but that fight was at 135 lb. Now he’ll be making his debut at 145 lb. He’s bounced around between 135 lb and 150 lb in his career and his most recent fight was actually a 150 lb catchweight. Three of his fights have been at 135 lb (including the two before his most recent), two have been at a 140 lb catchweight, one has been at 145 lb, and one has been at a 150 lb catchweight. In the only Feathweight (145 lb) fight of his career, he landed a first round KO, although that came against an opponent who entered with a terrible 6-9 record and has gone 2-8 in his last 10. Speaking of the level of competition he has fought, his opponents entered his fights with records of 0-0, 1-1, 6-9, 2-0, 4-2, 5-1, and 19-36, so he’s yet to face an actual decent fighter in his career.
In his DWCS fight, he outlanded Cortez 78-47 in significant strikes, while stuffing 8 of his 10 takedown attempts. Neither fighter ever appeared close to landing a finish and overall, it was an unimpressive snoozer. It came as no surprise that neither fighter was awarded a contract immediately after the fight. That was the first time Rodriguez has ever been to a decision, but that likely just speaks to how low a level of competition he’s been facing.
Now 7-0, Rodriguez has three wins by KO, three by submission, and one by decision. He has four first round finishes, although three of those occurred in his first three pro fights. He also has a second round submission win and a third round KO. Rodriguez trains out of Roufusport in Milwaukee alongside guys like Jared Gordon, Paul Felder, the Pettis brothers, and Belal Muhammad. Rodriguez looked better in some of his earlier fights when he could operate out in space compared to his DWCS performance, so it will be interesting to see how he looks against a much larger grappler in this next match.
Fight Prediction:
Pearce will have a 5” height advantage and is five years older than the 24-year-old Rodriguez, but they both share a 71” reach.
This looks like a great spot for Pearce. He’ll have a massive size advantage against a far less experienced opponent, who’s making his UFC debut up a weight class on less than a week’s notice. We expect Pearce to quickly get this fight to the ground and either submit Rodriguez or beat him up until he’s lost the will to compete any longer. We see Pearce landing another second round finish, but it’s entirely possible he gets it done even quicker. He’s generally looking to finish fights through ground and pound, but he showed in his last match that he’ll happily lock up a choke if you give up your back.
Our favorite bet here is “Pearce ITD” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
This looks like another smash spot for Pearce in DFS as he takes on a much smaller opponent who’s making his UFC debut up a weight class on less than a week’s notice. Even at 135 lb, Rodriguez wasn’t very unimpressive in his DWCS fight, so moving up to 145 lb is unlikely to do him any favors. Pearce is coming off two slate-breaking performances as an underdog, where he scored 123 and 134 DraftKings points, so we expect him to be popular amongst the field here. Don’t let that deter you from playing him at his high price tag as this is easily his most favorable matchup to date. Hopefully the steep increase in his price tag scares a few people off in tournaments, but that’s probably just wishful thinking. The odds immply Pearce has a 74% chance to win, a 45% chance it comes early, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Rodriguez didn’t appear ready for the UFC in his DWCS fight, and even Dana White agreed last October when he didn’t award him a contract following that decision win. However, they needed a last minute replacement and he answered the call, so here we are. He doesn’t have much going for him here other than a 7-0 padded record and a history of finishes against low-level opponents. He also trains with several UFC fighters so it’s not like we’re looking at a Victor Rodriguez situation. He’ll be fighting up a weight class and giving up a ton of size to Pearce, who used to fight up at 155 lb. Rodriguez’s only hope will be to land a miracle punch or lock up a hail mary submission to get Pearce out of there. The only real reason to consider even sniffing around Rodriguez in tournaments is that he’ll be incredibly low-owned and if he can somehow full off the upset he’ll be a massive leverage play with a tournament winning upside. We’ll be more willing to consider Rodriguez in his second UFC fight once he drops back down to 135 lb. The odds imply he has a 26% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Chad Anheliger
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a split-decision upset win on DWCS in September 2021, Anheliger is now on a nine fight winning streak. In his second most recent fight, Anheliger became the first fight to finish TUF finalist Brady Hiestand, which he accomplished with an early round three TKO. Anheliger started off his pro career back in 2010 and went just 2-5 in his first seven fights, with all five losses ending in submissions. His last three and four of his last five fights have made it to the third round, but nine of his 11 career wins have come early. Now 11-5 as a pro, he has six wins by KO, three by submission, and two by decision. All three of his submission wins have come by guillotine and all five of his career losses ended in submissions. Following the string of submission losses, Anheliger switched camps and took nearly two years off to improve his grappling, before returning to competing and winning nine straight including titles as both Flyweight and Bantamweight with the Rise Fighting Championship organization.
Anheliger was the biggest underdog on the card in his recent DWCS split-decision win and he spent the entire fight defending takedowns so it’s hard to take too much away from the match. He finished ahead in significant strikes 47-31 and in total strikes 68-58. His opponent, Muin Gafurov, landed 5 of his 12 takedown attempts, while Anheliger went 0 for 2 on his attempts. He also trailed in control time with 7:37-2:49. It’s important to point out that Gafurov landed all five of his takedown attempts in the first two rounds, but then went 0 for 7 in round three as he looked to be gassing out. Anheliger’s takedown defense still left a lot to be desired, even if it was somewhat improved from earlier in his career. That was the only time Anheliger had fought since November 2019, which is a concerningly low amount of activity. Anheliger trains out of the same gym as Hakeem Dawodu up in Canada.
Jesse Strader
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a first round TKO loss in his March 2021 short notice UFC debut against a really tough Montel Jackson, Strader lasted just 118 seconds in his first trip inside the Octagon. Despite the fight ending in under two minutes, Jackson landed a pair of knockdowns before forcing the stoppage through ground and pound. The matchup couldn’t have been much tougher for Strader, as Jackson is a legit future contender in the Bantamweight division, while Strader looks like he cuts his own hair while riding a ferris wheel. Strader also missed weight by 1.5 lb for that short-notice fight.
Strader had been scheduled to face Mana Martinez in August 2021, but ended up withdrawing and now hasn’t fought in 11 months. He also went through an extended layoff leading up to his debut as he dealt with multiple fight cancellations. He’s now fought just once since August 2019.
Strader likes to throw heavy combinations of body shots, and doesn’t appear to be any sort of submission threat, but will mix in takedowns. Six of his seven pro fights have ended in knockouts (4-2), while he won the only decision he’s ever been to, which was also the only time he’s been past the second round. Both of his KO losses ended in round one, while he also has a pair of R1 KO wins with two more in round two.
Strader won his first three pro fights, with a pair of KOs in the first two rounds followed by a high-volume brawl that he won convincingly in a decision. Then, in 2018 he suffered his first career loss against Marcelo Rojo, who’s now 0-2 in the UFC. Strader knocked Rojo down in the first round of their match and was close to finishing the fight, but Rojo recovered and quickly turned the tables with a series of heavy knees from the Thai clinch. Rojo was able to finish Strader just moments later with a late R1 TKO stoppage.
Strader has competed at both 135 lb and 145 lb in his career. He went 4-0 at 145 lb, while he’s gone just 1-2 at 135 lb, where his last two fights have been and where this next one will also be.
Fight Prediction:
Strader will have a 1” height advantage and 6” reach advantage. He’s also five years younger than the 35-year-old Anheliger.
While you can justifiably argue that this fight has no business on a UFC card, it should be entertaining nonetheless and in the end, isn’t that what we’re all here for? Strader is a low-level brawler who loves to throw combinations of body punches and once he gets going he operates like one of those little drums with the beads that you spin between your hands. Anheliger is also a one-dimensional striker and questionable talent so it should be entertaining to watch these two duke it out on the feet. Strader will mix in takedowns occasionally but he’s nothing of a submission threat. We expect these two to bang it out until one of them drops and with that in mind, Strader has been knocked out twice in the first round. Anheliger has only ever been defeated by submissions. This is a high-variance fight with the potential for one of these two to overwhelm the other and we certainly don’t have as much confidence in Anheliger as the oddsmakers do, who installed him as a -275 favorite. Neither one of these guys has done anything to impress us and we would happily bet against them both given the opportunity, but you almost have to take the value on Strader’s side of things. The only prediction we feel confident about in this fight is that it ends in somebody getting knocked out.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Anheliger comes into his UFC debut on a nine fight winning streak, with seven of those wins coming early. His biggest issue has been his grappling defense, but if the UFC wanted to test that in this fight they wouldn’t have matched him up with another one-dimensional striker in Jesse Strader. We expect to see these two duke it out on the feet and we fully expect it to end with one of them getting knocked out. While Anheliger has never been knocked out in 16 pro fights, Strader has been knocked out in the first round twice in his last four matches. With that said, we don’t really know how Anheliger will transition to life in the UFC and Strader already has one fight under his belt. It wouldn’t be shocking to see either guy win and it looks like a fight to target since the winner likely lands a knockout and puts up a big DFS score. The odd simply Anheliger has a 70% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in the first round.
After falling on his face in his short-notice UFC debut in an unwinnable matchup, Strader now gets the opportunity to be on the other side of a fight involving a UFC newcomer. While Strader is clearly a low-level talent and the oddsmakers aren’t giving him much of a chance here, Anheliger hasn’t been overly impressive. It’s certainly possible that Strader can pull off the upset and land a knockout. It’s still more likely that he gets knocked out himself, but he should go low-owned in DFS after his last poor showing so he offers tournament winning upside and four of his five career wins have come by KO in the first two rounds. He throws a good amount of volume and will also mix in occasional takedowns, so it’s also not impossible that he could serve as a value play if this somehow goes the distance. The odds imply he has a 30% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Diana Belbita
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off her 1st UFC victory, Belbita won a unanimous 30-27 decision in a high-volume brawl where Belbita led in significant strikes 117-92 and in total strikes 126-107. Her opponent, Hannah Goldy, went 2 for 6 on her takedown attempts after not attempting one in her previous six rounds of action. That just shows that she wanted no part of a striking battle with the Romanian kickboxer. While Belbita has struggled mightily off her back in past fights, she was really able to let her striking go in that last fight and came close to landing a finish when she dropped Goldy in the first round.
That was Belbita’s first career fight down at 115 lb and she actually started her career all the way up at 132 lb. She had been fighting at 125 lb from 2016 to 2019, but looked really good after dropping down another weight class in 2020. She has good size and power for the division and doesn’t appear to be lacking in quickness.
Belbita made her UFC debut in October 2019 against Molly McCann and lost a high-volume decision where McCann led in significant strikes 113-98 and in total strikes 126-104. McCann also landed 5 takedowns on 14 attempts to go along with a submission attempt and nearly four minutes of control time. Belbita also landed a takedown on her only attempt. Late in the second round, Belbita was notably deducted a point for a blatant fence grab that prevented a takedown. Following the deduction the ref put the two women back in the position along the fence and at that point McCann was able to take Belbita down and nearly finish the fight with ground and pound. Belbita showed off her toughness simply surviving the beating, but looked helpless off her back. McCann went on to win a unanimous 30-25 decision.
In her next fight, Belbita took on a one-dimensional Armbar specialist in Liana Jojua and curiously decided to engage in the clinch just 15 seconds into the fight after landing 4-5 clean punches. After a minute spent along the cage, Belbita foolishly took Jojua down and ended up right where Jojua wanted the fight—on her back looking for an armbar. Jojua almost immediately snatched Belbita’s arm and worked to find the right angle to finish the fight, which she did shortly thereafter. Belbita’s fight IQ has to be in serious question after doing everything wrong in that fight and abandoning her massive advantage on the feet.
Belbita is now 14-6 as a pro with 10 of her career wins coming early, including six KOs and four submissions. Interestingly, all four of her submission wins came by R2 armbar. Four of her last five wins came early, with two submissions and two TKOs. Four of her six career losses have also ended early, all by submission, including three R1 armbars and a second round guillotine choke. So in total, 8 of her 20 fights have ended in submissions and seven of those came by armbar (4-3). Of her six wins by KO/TKO, five ended in round one and the other came in round three. So overall she’s been very consistent with her finishes, with 5 of her 6 KO wins coming in round one, all four of her submission wins ending in round two, and three of her four submission losses ending in the first round.
With a background in kickboxing, Belbita is very dangerous on her feet and throws a ton of volume, averaging 6.72 SSL/min. However, she’s also essentially helpless off her back. That may not be an issue in this match as she goes against an opponent with similar strengths and weaknesses, but it is something to keep in mind if she finds herself getting taken down.
Gloria de Paula
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)In desperate need of a win, De Paula is now 0-2 in the UFC and failed to show up for either fight. She’s coming off the first early loss of her career, which came against Cheyanne Vlismas, who is not at all known for her finishing abilities, as that was just the second early win of her career. Cheyanne was dangerously close to landing an illegal kick as she fired one off to the head of Gloria de Paula just as she was standing up and just as she picked her hand up off the mat. Cheyanne thought the fight was over and began to celebrate but it had not been stopped so she jumped on top of De Paula and finished her with ground and pound for a 60 second R1 TKO. The fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, but De Paula got taken down just 25 seconds into the fight after getting smothered on the mat in her previous UFC debut.
While De Paula is a decent striker, she’s essentially helpless off her back and showed that in her March 2021 UFC debut. Jinh Yu Frey, a former Atomweight, wasted no time taking the fight to the mat as she grounded De Paula just 15 seconds into the first round. De Paula was unable to do anything off her back and spent the rest of the round with Frey on top of her. The second round surprisingly played out entirely on the feet and De Paula won the round, but then Frey immediately returned the fight to the mat in the third round and again controlled De Paula for the entire round as she cruised to a unanimous 29-28 decision win. De Paula actually finished slightly ahead in significant strikes 31-24 and in total strikes 51-50, but Frey landed two of her three takedown attempts and amassed over nine and half minutes of control time with two official submission attempts. Prior to that win, Frey was 0-2 in the UFC and had lost 3 of her last 4 fights. De Paula showed a massive hole in her game as she was dominated on the ground by a fighter in Frey who has average at best grappling skills.
In her previous DWCS match, De Paula outlanded her opponent 69-12 in significant strikes and accrued nearly eight minutes of control time. She was going against a Judo specialist, so there was little chance it would turn into a brawl. Somewhat surprisingly after seeing her grappling struggles in the UFC, Gloria successfully defended 9 of 11 takedown attempts and looked great on the feet, but did not attempt a takedown of her own. She also went for an extended submission attempt in the first round, which limited the striking potential early on.
De Paula is the girlfriend and training partner of Mayra Bueno Silva and trains out of Chute Boxe in Brazil alongside fighters like Charles Oliveira and Thomas Almeida in addition to Bueno Silva. So it’s not surprising she has solid striking but her grappling needs a lot of work. She only turned pro back in 2017 and has just nine fights on her record (5-4) with three wins by KO and two by decision. Other than the one recent TKO loss, her other three defeats all went the distance. Both of her pre-UFC losses came against opponents who have since fought in the UFC for what it’s worth.
Looking more closely at De Paula’s three career knockout wins, her first career KO came at the end of the first round in her July 2017 pro debut against a fighter who entered 0-3, and who’s now 0-6. Her second career KO came late in the third round of a 2018 match against a fighter making her pro debut who’s now 3-2. Her third career KO was also at the end of R3, this time against a 3-0 fighter, who hasn’t fought since the 2019 loss to De Paula. Prior to her recent R1 TKO loss, De Paula had made it to the third round in seven straight fights.
Fight Prediction:
Belbita will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Instead of testing the weaknesses of these two one-dimensional strikers against grapplers as they often like to do, the UFC decided to throw both of them (and the fans) a bone by giving us a potential barn burner matchup as these two duke it out on the feet. At least that’s what we’re expecting to see. At the same time, they’ve both looked so helpless on their back that it would make sense for one or both of them to look to attack that glaring weakness of the other. That would especially make sense if one of them takes a commanding lead in striking. Belbita has been a much more impressive striker than De Paula and she’ll also have a size advantage after recently dropping down to 115 lb just before her last fight. So while things could get dicey for either of these two if they find themselves with their back on the mat, we really like Belbita to win and wouldn’t at all be surprised to see her get a finish.
Our favorite bet here is Belbita’s ML at -120.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Belbita put up a semi-decent DraftKings score of 89 in her last fight, which ended in a high-volume decision, but she still hasn’t shown her ceiling. Ten of her 14 career wins have come early, including four of her last five. She nearly got a R1 TKO in her last match after dropping her opponent early, and she has the striking ability to finish fights quickly, we just haven’t seen it yet in the UFC. While De Paula has only been finished once in her career, it came by R1 TKO in her most recent fight against less of a finisher than what Belbita is. So there’s no reason to think we couldn’t see a similar outcome here. Even if this does go the distance, Belbita should land a ton of volume and may look to exploit De Paula’s non-existent grappling to further boost her scoring. This looks like a great pace-up matchup and a prime spot to play Belbita in all contest types. Belbita’s biggest weakness is her defensive grappling and De Paula is unlikely to take advantage of that as she’s yet to show any sort of grappling skills. At 1-2 in the UFC, Belbita needs a win here to avoid the dreaded 1-3 record that typically triggers a fighter’s release. She looked great after moving down to 115 lb in her last fight, and will have a noticeable size advantage in this matchup. The odds imply Belbita has a 53% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
De Paula is also somewhat interesting in DFS for a lot of the same reasons that we like Belbita. De Paula is also a decent striker who can land a good amount of volume, and we’ve yet to see her ceiling. Her biggest weakness is also her grappling and Belbita is similarly unlikely to really take advantage of that. De Paula also appears to be fighting for her job after starting 0-2 in the UFC, so you would hope that she would leave it all out there, although sometimes we see the opposite in this situation and fighters come in overly tentative simply trying not to lose. With that said, we expect this to be a high-paced brawl, with the wild card being whether or not either lady looks to grapple since they are both helpless off their back. The winner of this fight should have a really solid floor and at their cheaper price tags even a decent scoring decision has some potential to end up in winning lineups, depending on how the rest of the slate goes. This is a fight we want to target both sides of, but Belbita is definitely the preferred play. The odds imply De Paula has a 47% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Chas Skelly
12th UFC Fight (7-3, NC)It’s now been 29 months since Skelly last competed after his last four scheduled fights all fell through. Two of those were due to Skelly withdrawing, while he also had to deal with two opponents dropping out. He got left standing alone at the altar in his last scheduled fight, as Jamall Emmers suffered back spasms just as he was set to make the walk out to the Octagon and the fight was canceled at the last second.
Skelly last fought in September 2019 when he defeated Jordan Griffin in a low-volume decision. After only competing once in 2018 and once in 2019, Skelly has now fought just twice in almost the last five years. In his win over Griffin, Skelly actually finished behind in significant strikes 37-21, but led in total strikes 80-66. Both fighters landed a single takedown, but Skelly led in control time 8:34-2:56 and we saw a combined five submission attempts and three reversals in the grappling heavy battle.
Seven of Skelly’s 11 UFC fights have ended early, although one of those was a 2018 R2 submission loss that was later overturned to a No Contest after it was decided that he never tapped or lost consciousness and the ref shouldn’t have stopped the fight. With that result overturned, Skelly still only has one official early loss in the UFC, which came in a 2017 R3 KO against Jason Knight. Four of his seven UFC wins have come by submission, two have been by decision, and one was by KO.
Looking at his entire career, Skelly is 18-3 as a pro, with three wins by KO, 10 by submission, and five decision victories. The only time he’s officially been finished was in a 2017 third round TKO, with his other two losses going the distance against wrestlers in Mirsad Bektic and Darren Elkins.
Now 36 years old, Skelly is primarily a wrestler and doesn’t offer much in terms of striking. In this next matchup he faces another grappler who’s looking to make a name for himself off of the UFC veteran.
Mark Striegl
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Sixteen months removed from a 51 second R1 KO loss in his UFC debut, Striegl had been scheduled to face Johnny Munoz Jr. in April 2021 but ended up withdrawing from the match. In his loss against Nurmagomedov, Striegl got clipped coming in and was then quickly finished with punches as he looked desperately to grab a leg.
Striegl took his debut down at 135 lb, but will now be moving back up to 145 lb, where he had been competing just before joining the UFC. He’s fought at both weight classes throughout his career and even competed as high as 160 lb at one point. Two of his three career losses occurred at 135 lb.
Striegl’s last fight before joining the UFC ended in a No Contest for a low blow, but he won four in a row prior to that. The No Contest occurred in Striegl’s first title defense of the URCC Featherweight Championship Belt. Ending the fight for the low blow seemed pretty extreme as it really didn't look that bad. Striegl was commanding the fight with leg strikes and it seemed like his opponent, who claimed he "couldn't feel his legs" after the low blow, may have just wanted out.
Now 18-3 as a pro, Striegl is a submission specialist with 14 of 18 wins ending in submissions, to go along with four decision victories. All three of his losses have come early, with one KO and two submissions. Both of his submission losses came in the third round, while 12 of his 14 submission wins occurred in round—including a 2014 rear-naked choke over Kai Kara-France.
Striegl seems like he approaches most fights the same way. He'll start with leg strikes and then attempt to get his opponent to the mat. If his opponent ends up on their back Striegl goes for side control followed by a headlock, looking to get a scarf hold armlock submission, which he’s ended numerous fights with. Or if his opponent gives up their back, Striegl will look for the rear-naked choke. He also showed a solid standing guillotine in his third most recent fight, that actually put his opponent to sleep on his feet.
Fight Prediction:
Skelly will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This sets up as a grappling battle between two guys coming off extended layoffs. Considering Striegl has just 51 seconds of Octagon time so far in the UFC, it’s hard to know how he’ll fare against a UFC veteran like Skelly. We’ve seen Skelly struggle against other wrestlers in the past, as his two UFC decision losses came against Mirsad Bektic and Darren Elkins. However, Striegl has yet to prove he belongs in the same category as guys like that. Skelly has never officially been submitted in his career, although he was unofficially submitted once, but this looks like a tougher spot for Striegl to get a submission finish, which is what he’s been known for. So if he does pull off the upset it would more likely come in a decision. On the other side of things, Skelly has shown the ability to submit strikers, but has struggled more against other grapplers. The two ways we see this fight ending are either by submission or in a decision and we expect to see a back and forth wrestling match. Considering just how long it’s been since Skelly last fought, we’re inclined to go with Striegl here, but he hasn’t done anything to earn our confidence and this one could go either way.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Submission” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
In his seven UFC fights, Skelly has scored 76, 98, 116, 89, 103, 93, and 98 DraftKings points and his grappling-heavy approach lends itself well towards the DraftKings scoring system. Five of those wins have come early, while he scored 76 and 93 points in his two decision victories. At his higher price tag, he’ll need a completely dominating grappling performance to really score well in a decision, but more likely he’ll need a finish to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply Skelly has a 64% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Striegl is a submission specialist looking for his first UFC win, going against a longtime UFC veteran who has never been submitted. So on paper at least this looks like a tough spot for Striegl to really go off. With that said, it’s been two and a half years since Skelly last competed and we rarely see fighters perform well following layoffs of that length. At the same time, Striegl hasn’t fought in 16 months either, so maybe both guys will be looking to shake off some ring rust early in this one. Striegl’s grappling-heavy fighting style does lend itself well to the DraftKings scoring system, but going against an experienced wrestler isn’t an ideal opportunity to put on a dominating grappling performance. It’s entirely possible that the grappling skills of these two fighters cancel either other out to some extent, but it’s tough to say that with much confidence. Oftentimes this type of grappler versus grappler matchup results in more of a striking battle than anticipated, while other times we see all out wrestling matches. That makes this a higher variance spot with a wide range of outcomes. The odds imply Striegl has a 36% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Jessica-Rose Clark
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Now on a two fight winning streak, Clark put on a smothering grappling performance against a dangerous striker in Joselyne Edwards. Clark landed 5 takedowns on 11 attempts with nearly 12 minutes of control time, but trailed in significant strikes 30-18 and in total strikes 72-54. Prior to that performance, Clark had landed 5 total takedowns on 9 attempts in her first five UFC fights combined, and it was surprising to see that type of grappling performance from here.
In her second most recent fight, Clark landed a R3 TKO win over a terrible Sarah Alpar. Clark actually tore her ACL in the match, which resulted in her taking 13 months off afterwards as she recovered from surgery. The fight ended bizarrely, where Alpar was actually finished not once but twice due to a referee error. As Clark laid it on Alpar in the third round, Alpar literally just sat down against the cage and unsurprisingly caught a knee to the face just before she hit the mat. The referee thought it was an illegal knee and paused the action but didn’t officially stop the fight as it had initially appeared. It seemed like the fight would end, either from an illegal knee or a TKO as Alpar sat bleeding out of her face, but the ref resumed the action rules be damned. Clark continued to pulverize Alpar who proceeded to paint the canvas red as she put up no real defense. After a few more minutes of abuse, the fight was then finally stopped for good with 39 seconds remaining in the third round. The fight ended with Clark ahead in significant strikes 76-12 and in total strikes 124-26. She also landed her only takedown attempt and amassed over eight minutes of control time while Alpar went 2 of 11 on takedowns with just under three and a half minutes of control time.
Prior to that finish, Clark had fought to 11 straight decisions and hadn’t finished an opponent since 2014 in her 5th pro fight. Clark made her UFC debut in 2017 and won a pair of decisions in her first two UFC fights before losing decisions in her next two matches. She bounced back from the pair of losses with wins in her most recent two fights. Clark started at 125 lb in the UFC, where she went 2-1 before moving back up to 135 lb where she had completed prior to joining the organization. She’s since gone 2-1 at 135 lb.
Looking at her entire career, Clark is now 11-6, with three wins by KO, two by submission and six decisions. All six of her pro losses have ended in decisions and she’s never been finished. Four of her five early wins occurred in her first five pro fights, and she’s generally not a threat to end fights early, with just one of her last 13 matches failing to make it to the judges and all 13 seeing the third round.
Stephanie Egger
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off an impressive R2 TKO win over a low-level opponent in Shanna Young, Egger dominated the fight on the mat, although she did have to navigate her way through a heel hook attempt by Young for an extended period in the first round. Nevertheless, she finished ahead in significant strikes 29-22 and in total strikes 62-26, while also landing 2 of her 4 takedown attempts with three and a half minutes of control time.
A year prior to notching her first UFC win, Egger lost a grappling-heavy decision in her short notice UFC debut against a tough Tracy Cortez. In that fight, Egger trailed in significant strikes 20-10 and in total strikes 66-27, while Cortez went 3 for 5 on takedowns with nearly 10 minutes of control time as Egger went just 1 for 6 on her attempts with two minutes of control time. Egger did land a solid upkick off her back at one point, but didn’t have many other moments in the fight as Cortez was able to control her for the majority of the slow paced match. Cortez was able to defend all of Egger’s Judo throws, but a weaker grappler likely would have struggled there.
Just prior to joining the UFC, Egger won three straight fights, including two in the first round. Impressively five of her six career wins have come early, including four in round one. She’s gone just 1-2 in decisions, but has never been finished and now owns a 6-2 record, with three wins by KO and two by submission. As a black belt in Judo, Egger is most comfortable getting opponents down and beating them up on the mat opposed to standing and trading on the feet.
Fight Prediction:
Egger will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
Clark showed in her last match that she’s been working on her grappling, but now she’ll be the one with the striking advantage so we expect her to be looking to keep this one on the feet. Egger is a dangerous judoka who would much prefer to compete on the mat, but we did see Tracy Cortez win the grappling exchanges in Egger’s UFC debut. We haven’t seen Clark spend much time on her back recently and she’s only been taken down three times in her last five fights. If Egger is able to take Clark down then things could get hairy for Clark, but with a 73% takedown defense there’s a good chance she can keep this one standing. Considering 12 of Clark’s last 13 fights have gone the distance, we never expect her matches to end early and this fight is no different, even though Egger has proven herself to be a dangerous finisher. We like Clark to win a decision here as long as she can avoid spending much time on her back.
Our favorite bet here is “Clark Wins by Decision” at +140.
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DFS Implications:
Clark has been a consistent but unspectacular DFS producer with DraftKings scores of 90, 105, 82 and 96 in her four UFC wins. We should take her one good score with a grain of salt as the referee was prepared to let Sarah Alpar die in the Octagon for the sake of DFS and the fight should have been stopped much sooner in the third round. So we should probably pay more attention to her other three scores where she totaled 90, 82, and 96 DraftKings points. That leaves her with a decent floor when she wins, but a lackluster ceiling. We don’t expect to see a ton of striking volume here as Egger will be looking to get the fight to the ground, and Clark will also likely be far less inclined to look for takedowns of her own, so this will be a tougher spot for her to score well and it will be hard for her to return value at her price tag without a finish. The odds imply she has a 61% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Egger is coming off an impressive performance where she notched her first UFC win in a round two TKO, but it’s important to keep in mind that win came against a low-level talent in Shanna Young. Chasing that result as she steps into a significantly tougher matchup would be a mistake, one that a decent portion of the field will likely make. Clark has never been finished in her career and has a solid 73% takedown defense. While it’s still very possible that Egger is able to get this fight to the mat at some point, it would be surprising to see her get a finish. With that said, it’s certainly not impossible and Egger at least has a clear path to scoring well. There’s also a chance she could win a grappling-heavy decision and return value at her cheaper price tag even without a finish, so it makes sense to have some level of exposure. The odds imply she has a 39% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
David Onama
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)This fight was announced just a few weeks ago on January 31st and David Onama will be dropping back down to 145 lb.
Having the deck stacked against him in his UFC debut, Obama will be looking to bounce back from a brawling decision loss in his last fight. He took the fight up a weight class on less than a week’s notice against an incredibly tough opponent in Mason Jones. Undeterred, Onama held his own in the fight and actually finished ahead in significant strikes 90-87 and in total strikes 121-116. However, Jones took Onama down 8 times on 14 attempts with nine minutes of control time to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. Onama looked dangerous out in space, but the fact that he was controlled for nearly two-thirds of the fight is somewhat concerning.
That was Onama’s first career loss, after he finished the first eight opponents he faced. Now 8-1 as a pro, he has five wins by KO and three by submission, to go with his lone decision loss. Five of those finishes came in the first round, two ended in round two, and one ended in round three. Two of his three submission wins came by guillotine as he’s primarily a striker with an opportunistic submission threat.
Onama trains out of Glory MMA & Fitness under James Krause, so you know he’s well coached. Generally, he’s a patient striker who seems to choose his spots carefully, but once he gets an opponent hurt he’ll unload with a flurry of strikes to close the show. Still just 27 years old, Onama is a young, raw talent who only turned pro in 2019. He’s still very offensively minded and though he needs to improve both his striking and takedown defenses, he has the athleticism to excel if he can continue to refine his technique.
Gabriel Benitez
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Continuing to struggle to keep fights intact, Benitez has had seven fights booked since 2020, but only three of them have actually happened. He was scheduled to face Lerone Murphy in March 2020, but the entire event was canceled due to COVID. Then, after suffering a decision loss against Omar Morales, Benitez was scheduled to face Justin Jaynes in November 2020, but Benitez tested positive for COVID and the fight was pushed back a few weeks to December 2020. After finishing Jaynes in the first round, Benitez attempted to move down to 145 lb, but ended up missing weight and his opponent Jonathan Pearce declined to proceed with the fight in May 2021. Benitez then got finished in the third round by Billy Quarantillo in July 2021, before being booked against TJ Brown in January 2022 only to withdraw again.
Benitez is desperate for a win here, as he’s lost three of his last four fights, with his only win over that stretch coming against undersized Justin Jaynes, who’s no longer in the UFC after going 1-4, with four straight losses. Four of Benitez’s last five fights have ended in KO/TKOs, with three of those finishes coming in the first round.
Benitez has competed at both 145 lb and 155 lb in his career, but has fought predominantly at 145 lb where this next fight will take place. He moved up to 155 lb for a two fight stretch in 2020 where he went 1-1 with a R1 KO win and a decision loss. He’s gone 4-4 in the UFC at 145 lb, with three losses by KO, one decision loss, one win by KO, two wins by submission, and two decision victories. However, he hasn’t won a fight down at 145 lb since 2018 and has lost by KO/TKO in his last two 145 lb matches.
In his most recent fight, Benitez was controlled by Billy Quarantillo for the majority of the fight on the mat, where Quarantillo was able to beat him up with ground strikes as he fished for chokes. Quarantillo outlanded Benitez 100-57 in significant strikes and 179-67 in total strikes, while landing three of his seven takedown attempts with nearly nine minutes of control time. Eventually, he got a R3 TKO stoppage as he continued to pound on Benitez by controlling his back.
In his last win, Benitez knocked out Justin Jaynes in the first round of a 155 lb fight with a violent knee to the body, which is Benitez’s only win since 2018. In his two losses leading up to that win, Benitez was knocked out in the first round by Sodiq Yusuff at 145 lb and then moved up to 155 lb and lost a decision to Omar Morales. Benitez initially stumbled Yusuff in the first round of their match, but Yusuff bounced back and finished things shortly after. Then, in a bloody leg striking battle with Morales, Benitez split his shin wide open but was able to survive the injury and still go 15 minutes, demonstrating his insane toughness. Prior to the pair of losses, Benitez had won five of his first seven UFC fights, after joining the organization back in 2014. Seven of his 11 UFC fights have ended early (4-3), while four have gone the distance (2-2).
Looking at his entire career, 18 of his 22 wins ended early, as did 5 of his 9 losses. He has 8 wins by KO, 10 by submission, and four via decision. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted twice, and has four decision losses. Fifteen of his 31 career fights have ended in the first round (11-4).
UPDATE: Benitez missed weight by 2 lb and looked rough on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Onama will have a 3” height and reach advantage and is six years younger than the 33-year-old Benitez.
This sets up as an exciting stand-up battle between two dangerous strikers and could easily end up being the fight of the night. We could see it playing out similarly to the Yusuff/Benitez match, with Onama controlling the center of the Octagon and Benitez using his footwork to try and control the distance and utilize his kicking. With that said, Benitez has no problem engaging in a firefight, but his advantage in this matchup will be his kicking. Onama is primarily a puncher and appears to have the power advantage in his hands, but Benitez has decent hands as well. That could actually get Benitez into trouble and if he gets lulled into trading in a phone booth we expect Onama to knock him out. Benitez would be wise to attack Onama’s legs to limit his mobility and then pick him apart with body kicks from the outside. Whether or not that happens is a different story as Benitez is addicted to violence and may just throw caution to the wind to see whose chin holds up better. Both of these guys have notched their last two wins with round one knockouts and that’s the most likely way this fight ends as well. Benitez is tough, but we like Onama to knock him out early in this fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at +125.
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DFS Implications:
Onama is a powerful striker who landed a respectable 90 significant strikes in a decision loss in his recent debut, but with no grappling to boost his DFS scoring he’s reliant on landing a finish to return value. With that said, we expect this fight to end in an early knockout and the winner should score well in what sets up as a high-paced brawl. All eight of Onama’s career wins have come early, but those were also all outside of the UFC so he still needs to prove he can put opponents away at the UFC level. He looked good with the deck stacked against him in his recent UFC debut, and now he’s moving back down to 145 lb. He also has more time to prepare after taking his debut on short notice. He faces another tough opponent here, but Benitez has also been struggling as he’s lost 3 of his last 4 fights, with two of those losses coming by TKO. You’ll want to have a healthy amount of exposure to both sides of this fight and the winner should score well as long as we see the finishing we’re expecting. The odds imply Onama has a 59% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Benitez is also a pure striker who relies on landing finishes to score well in DFS. He doesn’t throw enough volume to score well in a decision and even at his cheaper price tag it’s unlikely a decision win would score enough for him to end up in tournament winning lineups. He totaled just 68 and 63 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision victories and just 57 DraftKings points in his 2014 third round submission win. However, in his last two victories, which both came in round one, he scored 115 and 134 DraftKings points. He also returned 96 points in a 2016 round two submission win. While Onama has yet to be finished in his young career, Benitez is always dangerous and has a solid chance to pull off the upset with an early win. We still slightly prefer Onama’s side of things, but this should be a close fight and we like the upside of both guys. The odds imply Benitez has a 41% chance to win, a 21% chance to end it early, and a 10% chance to finish things in round one.
Fight #5
Joaquin Buckley
6th UFC Fight (3-2)This fight had been scheduled for the January 15th card, but Alhassan withdrew and it got pushed back a month.
Extending his streak of fights ending in knockouts to seven (5-2), Buckley is coming off of a third round KO win over Antonio Arroyo, who had previously never been knocked out in 13 pro fights. We didn’t see either guy land much volume in the match, as Buckley led just 41-21 in significant strikes, but it was interesting to see Buckley attempt six takedowns, although he landed only one. Those numbers match Buckley’s previous four UFC fights combined, where he also landed one takedown on six attempts. That could have been an opponent-specific gameplan after seeing Deron Winn take Arroyo down 12 times on 16 attempts in their previous fight, but it will be something to monitor to see if Buckley is actually trying to incorporate more wrestling. This seems unlikely but you never know.
In his second most recent fight, Buckley got knocked out in the first round from a head kick thrown by the boring decision grinder Alessio Di Chirico. For what it’s worth, it looked like a lucky shot as Buckley made an untimely duck and leaned into the kick. Di Chirico’s previous four fights had all gone the distance and he’s now lost four of his last five matches, making him an unlikely fighter to come in and knock you out.
Prior to that loss, Buckley landed a pair of R2 KO wins against Jordan Wright and Impa Kasanganay. Both came into those fights having never been officially finished, although Wright did get knocked out on DWCS before the results were later overturned to a No Contest. Buckley originally got his shot in the UFC following first and second round KO wins in the LFA in 2019 and 2020. He ended up fighting Kevin Holland in his UFC debut, just a week after his July 2020 R2 LFA KO victory.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Buckley has 10 wins by KO and three by decision. Four of his knockouts have come in round one, another four have ended in round two, and two have occurred in round three. However, his last four knockouts have all come in the later rounds with 3 ending in round two. Three of his four first-round knockouts were in his first five pro fights. He’s also been knocked out in three of his four pro losses, along with one decision loss. Two of his three KO losses occurred in the first round.
Buckley fought at 170 lb until 2019 when he moved up to 185 lb. He’s now 5-2 at Middleweight (185 lb), with all seven fights ending in KOs. At just 5’10”, the biggest challenge at Middleweight for Buckley appears to be his height, though he does have a legit 76” reach.
Abdul Razak Alhassan
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Coming off his first KO win since 2018, Alhassan ironically finished Alessio Di Chirico the exact same way that Di Chirico finished Buckley in his previous fight, via R1 KO by right head kick. Both Buckley and Di Chirico leaned into those head kicks and it’s uncanny how similar the two finishes were. The only real difference was Alhassan landed his just 17 seconds into the fight, while Di Chirico took 132 seconds to land his. One thing to consider is that Alessio Di Chirico stepped into that fight on just a week’s notice after Antonio Braga Neto withdrew.
Prior to that quick finish, Alhassan had dropped three straight fights since returning in 2020 from an extended layoff. Alhassan moved up from Welterweight (170 lb) to Middleweight (185 lb) in his second most recent fight, after missing weight for his previous two matches. The move up in weight didn’t initially appear to do Alhassan any favors as he looked like a far less explosive version of himself against Jacob Malkoun in his first fight up at Middleweight. In fairness, he fought against a constant barrage of takedowns throughout the fight and never really got started with his striking. He ended up losing a smothering low-volume decision with Malkoun ahead in significant strikes 27-21 and in total strikes 91-32. Malkoun landed 8 out of a ridiculous 24 takedown attempts along with nearly 12 minutes of control time and a pair of submission attempts.
Alhassan is now 3-1 at Middleweight in his career, and 1-1 in the UFC at the weight class. His first two fights at Middleweight were in 2015 and 2016 where he won both by R1 KO, just like his other nine career wins. All three of his career fights to make it out of the first round have ended in decision losses, while he’s 11-1 in fights that end in R1 KOs.
The only time Alhassan has ever been finished was when Khaos Williams hit him with a cattle prod of a punch early in R1 of a 2020 match, which ended the fight in just 30 seconds. Prior to that, Alhassan reassembled his former self in the first round against Mounir Lazzez, his first fight back from an extended layoff. However, he looked to run out of gas early in the fight and Lazzez dominated the fight from that point on, winning via decision.
After starting his career off 10-1, with 10 R1 KO wins, Alhassan is now 36 years old and 11-4. Now, he’s finally coming off a win for the first time in a while.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10” but Buckley will have a 3” reach advantage and is 9 years younger than the 36-year-old Alhassan.
With 76% of Buckley’s career fights ending in knockouts and 80% of Alhassan’s, the most likely outcome here is clearly for this to end in another knockout. The tougher question to answer is who lands it and when. Alhassan has yet to be involved in a fight that ends during the 2nd or 3rd rounds, while Buckley’s last four KO wins all came in the later rounds. Of the two, Buckley has been more prone to getting knocked out in his career, but he’s also significantly younger than Alhassan and appears to be the more explosive fighter. We agree with the oddsmakers that Buckley has a better shot to win this fight, but both guys are entirely capable of knocking the other out and it will likely just come down to who lands the first big shot. While all of Alhassan’s career wins have come by R1 KO, six of Buckley’s 10 career knockouts have occurred in the later rounds. We’ll say Buckley wins by R2 KO.
Our favorite bet here is “Buckley R2 or R3 KO” at +430.
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DFS Implications:
All five of Buckley’s UFC fights have ended in knockouts (3-2), although only one of those finishes came in the first round. Now, Buckley squares off against another knockout specialist, and it would be surprising to see this one end in any other way but a KO. Buckley has put up DraftKings totals of 80, 114, and 98 in his three UFC wins, while his opponents scored 115 and 98 in his two losses. His one disappointing score came in his most recent fight, which ended in a R3 KO win in a low-volume match. That shows that it is possible for him to fail to really score well even if he gets a late knockout, but that’s probably more of an exception than a rule. With that said, Buckley doesn't land a ton of striking volume as he’s looking for the kill shot with every punch. He’s also landed just 2 takedowns on 12 attempts in five UFC fights. That leaves him entirely reliant on knockouts to score well, and he likely needs a finish in the first two rounds to really put up a big score. This fight will be heavily targeted by the field, so if you’re looking for ways it fails, all three of Alhassan’s career fights to make it past the first round have gone the distance and neither of these two land enough volume to score well beyond the second round. If this turns into a more tentative stalemate staring contest with neither guy looking to get nuked, then it could easily disappoint. There’s also the possibility that we see a low-volume first round followed by an early second round finish that fails to score exceptionally well. Even in a fight that we fully expect to end in a knockout, there are ways the winner fails to crack tournament winning lineups. The odds imply Buckley has a 57% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Alhassan is as clear cut of a R1 KO or bust fighter as you’ll ever see, with all 11 of his career wins coming by R1 KO. Three of his five UFC knockouts have come in under 60 seconds and he’s always a prime candidate for a quick-win bonus. He’s put up DraftKings scores of 125, 131, 107, 121, and 150 in his wins, and his slate-breaking tendencies result in him always being a fantasy field favorite. Just keep in mind, he’s gone just 1-3 in his last four fights since returning from an extended layoff and the majority of his career was spent down at 170 lb before he moved up to 185 lb for his last two fights. He’s also 36 years old and his only knockout since 2018 came in his last fight against a short notice replacement who’s gone 1-4 in his last five fights. While this looks like a prime spot for either guy to land a knockout in this fight, just keep in mind Alhassan has plenty of potential red flags. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 28% chance to get a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Nikolas Motta
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his long-awaited UFC debut, Motta had been scheduled to face Damir Hadzovic back in May 2021, but was forced to withdraw due to an injury. He was then initially booked against Jim Miller in September 2021, but Miller tested positive for COVID and was replaced by Cameron VanCamp on about a week’s notice. Then, VanCamp wasn’t cleared the day before the fight so the matchup was scrapped. Now, five months removed from their original booking, Motta will now return to the Miller matchup. Interestingly, Motta checked in as a slight +100 underdog the first time these two were paired up, but now is installed as a -165 favorite.
Fifteen months removed from a decision win on DWCS in November 2020, Motta got a UFC contract despite failing to get a finish in a low-volume fight. Motta was actually outlanded by his opponent, Joe Lowry, 54-42 in significant strikes and 60-42 in total strikes, but still won a unanimous 30-27 decision as he was clearly the one doing more damage with the strikes he did land. This was evident based on looking at Lowry’s face and highlighted by his broken nose. Lowry missed on the only official takedown in the fight, and we’ve yet to see Motta attempt a takedown in any of his recent fights.
Motta has shown he has impressive power, but he’s a one-dimensional striker with no grappling to rely on. He’s generally very patient with his striking and relies on damage more than volume in his fights. However, he does have very heavy hands. While his last two fights have both gone the distance, 11 of his 15 career matches have ended early. He has eight wins by KO and has won all four of the decisions he’s been to. Six of his knockout victories have occurred in round one, one ended in round two, and the last came in round three. His three losses consist of a pair of R1 KOs (2016 & 2018) and a 2013 R2 guillotine choke in his third pro fight. Remarkable, he is the only person to ever finish tough UFC fighter Joe Solecki, who he knocked out in the third round of a 2018 match. He’s gone 10-2 since getting submitted in 2013, and the only times he’s lost during that stretch is when he’s been knocked out in the opening three minutes.
Motta went on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil back in 2015 when he was just 22 years old, but was submitted in the second round of his second fight and was relegated back to the regional scene. He’s since trained out of Toms River, NJ with guys like Frankie Edgar, so he’s been working with very experienced fighters.
After starting his pro career at 145 lb when he was just 18 years old, Motta moved up to 155 lb in 2015 when he went on TUF Brazil. He went 6-1 at 145 lb with five wins by KO and one by decision. His only career submission loss also occurred at Featherweight. Since moving up he’s gone 6-2 with three wins by KO and three by decision. Both of his losses ended in R1 KOs, however one of those actually occurred in a 150 lb catchweight bout in 2016 with the other taking place in 2018 at 155 lb. He’s also had a pair of 160 lb Catchweight fights which include his 2018 R3 KO of Joe Solecki and a 2019 R1 KO of Cesar Balmaceda. His only KO win to actually come officially at Lightweight was in the second round of a 2016 fight.
Jim Miller
39th UFC Fight (22-15, NC)Coming off his first KO win since 2016, Miller finished UFC newcomer Erick Gonzalez 14 seconds into the second round. This also marked the first time Miller had put anyone away beyond the first round since 2011. Gonzalez took Miller down early in the fight, an always risky move against a dangerous BJJ black belt like Miller, who’s great at landing armbars and guillotines off his back. However, Gonzalez returned to his feet before Miller could lock anything up. Then, Gonzalez appeared to wobble Miller on the feet. Miller then landed a desperation takedown to buy some recovery time, which served its purpose before Gonzalez was able to return to his feet with under two minutes left in the round. The two fighters then stood and traded for the remainder of the round and Miller was able to land multiple solid left hands out of his southpaw stance. Gonzalez was unable to make any adjustments between rounds and Miller knocked him out cold with another clean left hand in the opening seconds of round two.
Prior to that win, Miller suffered a pair of decision losses and had dropped three of his previous four fights. All three of those losses went the distance, while Miller’s last five wins have all come early, including four in the first round leading up to the recent victory that took just a few seconds longer, ending at the 5:14 mark. Miller has lost the last six decisions he’s been to, but it’s worth pointing out that most of those decision losses came against opponents with solid grappling/wrestling. It’s really quite rare to see Miller lose a decision to a pure striker.
The last fighter to finish Miller was Lightweight champion Charles Oliveira back in 2018, who submitted Miller in the first round. The only other times Miller has been finished in the UFC were a 2018 R1 KO against Dan Hooker, a 2015 R2 submission against Michael Chiesa, a 2014 R2 KO against Donald Cerrone, and a 2012 R2 submission against Nate Diaz. As you can see, he’s only been finished by top level opponents in the UFC. His other 10 UFC losses all went the distance, as he’s gone just 8-10 in UFC decisions. Impressively, 14 of his 22 UFC victories have come early, including 10 in the first round, two in round two, and two in round three. His eight previous early wins leading up to his recent R2 KO win all occurred in the first round, with seven of those ending in submissions. Looking at his entire pro career, Miller is 33-16 with five wins by KO, 18 by submission, and 10 via decision. He’s only been knocked out twice in 50 pro fights (49 fights if we’re not counting the No Contest), submitted three times, and has 11 decision losses.
Fight Prediction:
Motta will have a 1” height advantage, but Miller will have a 1” reach advantage. Motta is also 9 years younger than the 38-year-old Miller.
This is a really tough matchup for Motta to be making his UFC debut and the fact that he’s had to wait 15 months for it to happen doesn’t make things any easier. Jim Miller has nine more UFC fights than Nikolas Motta has years on this earth. While we’ve seen Miller struggle at times going against other experienced grapplers, he’s yet to lose a fight to any up-and-coming striker. With that said, Miller is now 38 years old and at some point you have to expect him to fall off a cliff, but he still looked good in his last fight, even if he did get clipped at one point. Motta is a solid striker with heavy hands and there’s always the potential that he connects with something clean to get Miller out of there. However, Miller has such a massive advantage when it comes to grappling that we expect him to find a way to get this fight to the mat and lock up a submission, most likely in the first round. In his last fight, Miller also looked crisp with his left hand, so if Motta sells out to prevent being taken down, there’s also a chance Miller lands another knockout, but it’s far less likely. Either way, we see Miller pulling off the upset and getting an early finish here.
Our favorite bet here is “Miller R1 Submission” at +800.
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DFS Implications:
These two were originally scheduled to fight last September and Miller was installed as a -120 favorite priced at $8,300 with Motta priced at $7,900. The odds have since changed after this fight was rebooked and now Motta is $8,500 on DraftKings, while Miller is just $7,700.
Motta is a one-dimensional striker who doesn’t land enough volume to score well in a decision but has punched his way to knockouts in 8 of his 12 pro wins, with six of those coming in the first round. He’s not the biggest guy and actually started his career down at 145 lb when he was just 18 years old, before moving up to 155 lb in 2015. However, he has heavy hands and the last time he knocked an opponent out the guy had to be carted off on a stretcher. Motta won’t add anything in the grappling department and appears reliant on an early knockout to put up a useful score. Working against him, Miller has only been knocked out twice in 50 pro fights with the most recent coming back in 2018 against Dan Hooker. Motta has also been sidelined for the last 15 months as he had his UFC debut booked and canceled against three different opponents over the last year. This looks like a really tough spot for Motta to be making his UFC debut and he’s likely a guy we’ll be more interested in playing in DFS in his second UFC fight. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 33% chance to get a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Miller doesn’t offer much when it comes to striking volume as he averages just 2.70 SSL/min, and hasn’t landed more than two takedowns in any of his last 13 fights. However, his last five wins have all come early, with four ending in round one. What he lacks in output he makes up for in finishing ability, but he rarely scores well in fights that go the distance, with DraftKings totals of just 76, 66, 65, 78, and 48 in his last five decision wins. Even at his cheaper price tag, we’re only playing Miller for his finishing ability here. Working in his favor, all three of Motta’s career losses have come early, one by submission and two by first round TKO. With Motta also coming off a 15 month layoff, it’s possible he shows up with a little ring rust, allowing Miller to get a jump on him early and end this fight before Motta ever really gets comfortable. With Miller entering his 39th UFC fight and Motta coming into his first, Miller should be able to rely on his experience and grappling advantage to work towards a finish here and he looks like a solid value play priced at just $7,700. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Parker Porter
4th UFC Fight (2-1)In his last two high-volume decision wins, Parker Porter outlanded his way to victory against a couple of low-level Heavyweights in Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman. In his most recent win, Porter outlanded Sherman 149-117 in significant strikes, but went just 1 of 8 on his takedown attempts. Both guys were exhausted late in the fight and Sherman has now lost three straight.
In his second most recent fight, Porter won another high-volume brawling decision against a terrible Josh Parisian in November 2020. Porter led in significant strikes 126-114 and in total strikes 164-123, while tacking on a pair of takedowns on four attempts with nearly four and half minutes of control time.
Three months prior to that win, Porter made his short notice UFC debut against Chris Daukaus and was knocked out late in the first round. That was the third time Porter had been knocked out in the first round in 17 pro fights. He’s also been submitted twice (R1 & R3) and lost once in the first round due to a DQ for punches to the back of the head. He’s 3-0 in fights that have gone the distance, while also winning five fights by KO and three by submission to round out his 11-6 pro record. Worth noting for betting, two of his three submission wins have come in round two, while three of his five knockout victories have occurred in round three. It’s been 11 years since he finished an opponent in the first round.
After only one of his first 15 pro fights went the distance, Porter has now been to the judges in back-to-back fights and has relied on sheer output to win fights. While he mixes in grappling, he’s not entirely impressive on the mat but he likes looking for kimura and keylock submissions. His striking output is more impressive than his power and his only two KO/TKO wins in the last 8+ years both came in the third round. It seems like his fighting style relies on waiting for his opponents to gas out, allowing him to look for a finish or to simply outland his way to decisions.
Alan Baudot
3rd UFC Fight (0-1, NC)Still searching for his first UFC win, Baudot is coming off a high-volume R2 TKO loss that was later overturned to a No Contest when Rodrigo Nascimento tested positive for PEDs. While Baudot’s official record shows that he’s 2-2 plus a No Contest in his last five fights, it’s actually far worse than it appears once you dig a little deeper. In addition to his recent TKO loss being overturned, his last win was by DQ in 2019. That was originally a third round submission loss, but his opponent tested positive for THC and instead of overturning it to a No Contest, the promotion gave Baudot a win by DQ instead for unknown reasons. Looking at the actual outcomes of his fights and ignoring the later overturnings, he’s gone just 1-4 in his last five fights dating back to 2017, with his lone win during that stretch coming against an opponent who’s now 0-5 with all five losses ending in under seven minutes.
In his most recent loss, Baudot actually started pretty strong, utilizing his speed and movement to outland Nascimento 50-18 in significant strikes in the first round, while also stuffing all three of Nascimento’s takedown attempts. Even more impressive was that Nascimento controlled Baudot for over half the round against the fence, as Baudot essentially landed 50 significant strikes in half of a round. The tides turned in round two as Nascimento outlanded Baudot 31-10 before finishing him along the fence with punches as Baudot shelled up early in the round. Had it not been later overturned, that would have been Nascimento’s third career win by TKO, and first since 2014, as he’s generally known as more of a submission threat. That was just the fourth time Baudot has been past the first round in his career and he appeared to be slowing down after starting off strong.
Baudot has still never been to a decision and has only seen the third round twice. He also made it all the way to the 5th round back in 2015 in what was just his third pro fight, which ended in an early R5 TKO win. The only other time he’s been past the second round was in 2019 where he was submitted late in the fight before the results were later overturned to a No Contest for his opponent testing positive for THC.
Now 8-2 with one No Contest,, seven of Baudot’s fights have ended in R1 KOs (6-1), two have ended in R2 KOs (1-1 including the No Contest), one finished in a R3 submission loss that was later overturned, and the last ended in a 2015 R5 TKO win. While Baudot is currently fighting at Heavyweight, much of his career has been spent down at Light Heavyweight and that’s probably where he belongs.
Baudot lost his UFC debut in a suicide mission against up-and-coming Heavyweight contender Tom Aspinall. The fight ended as everyone expected with Aspinall landing a first round TKO. Aspinall opted to take the fight to the ground and easily finished it with ground and pound as Baudot covered up. Baudot landed just three significant strikes in the fight, while Aspinall landed 16 on his way to a 95 second win.
In his last fight before joining the UFC, Baudot competed at Light Heavyweight. He was submitted in the third round with a rear-naked choke, but the results were overturned to a No Contest when his opponent tested positive for THC. Baudot didn’t fight for 18 months following the loss and leading up to his debut. Over that break, he put on some weight as he tipped the scales at 254 lb in his debut against Aspinall. He then dropped down to 246 lb for his most recent fight, which makes you wonder if he’s considering a return to Light Heavyweight or if he was just out of shape for his debut.
Prior to joining the UFC, Baudot had been fighting undersized and inexperienced fighters for years in East Asia. The one time he took on a UFC level talent (prior to joining the UFC) was when he faced Dalcha Lungiambula at Light Heavyweight in 2017 and Baudot was face-planted in just 26 seconds.
Following that loss, Baudot returned to Japan to rebuild his confidence against then 0-2 (now 0-5), 5'10", normally 170 lb Yuto Nakajima. This fight was a criminal mismatch and the only thing it was missing was carnival music or silent film captions. That was Baudot’s only win in the last five years, and it’s pretty remarkable he even got the call up to the UFC.
Overall, Baudot has good speed at Heavyweight but lacks power or durability. We’ve seen him shell up quickly at the first sign of adversity in back-to-back fights and it’s hard to see him lasting much longer with the organization.
Fight Prediction:
Baudot will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
We should see a massive amount of striking volume in this fight so it will be interesting to see how each fighter’s cardio holds up. Porter has shown the ability to grit out decision wins in sloppy Heavyweight brawls, while Baudot has yet to go to a decision in his career. We’ve seen Baudot essentially give up at the first sign of adversity in his last two fights, which makes it tougher to see this one going the distance, but Porter hasn’t looked like much of a finisher since joining the UFC. Porter should have the grappling advantage as he’s now gone 3 for 12 on takedowns in his last two fights. He likes to manipulate the arms of his opponents on the mat as he tries to hunt for submissions, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him look to end this fight with one. With that said, he’s not very impressive with his technique, making it tough to rely on him to force a tap. It’s also possible he can land enough strikes that Baudot will again simply cover up once he’s had enough, most likely in the second or third round. However, if Baudot shows a little more heart, we could see this end in a close high-volume decision as both guys have demonstrated the ability to rack up a large amount of strikes. Baudot is quicker and far more light on his feet, while Porter should have the power advantage, but neither guy throws the most devastating shots. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Baudot outland Porter, despite Porter putting up huge striking totals in each of his last two fights. The impossible thing to discern going in is whether or not Baudot will simply give up at some point. He has not handled getting hit well, and Porter will certainly land a good amount of volume, which will give Baudot plenty of opportunities to quit. Both of these two are low-level Heavyweights when it comes to talent, but Porter has shown a ton of heart, while Baudot looks like a quitter who’s used to being able to bully his opponents when he wins, but fades quickly under pressure. We expect this to end in either a mid to late round finish for Porter or a close, high-volume decision. Porter has shown an ability to dig deep late in fights, while Baudot has generally faded, and Porter’s grappling should give him an edge as well if this goes the distance. Porter is also 3-0 in decisions in his career, while Baudot has never been to one. While Baudot has shown the striking output to potentially match Porter, we still like Porter’s chances to get the nod if this does go the full 15 minutes. Just remember that this is a low-level Heavyweight brawl, which inherently carries a lot of variance.
Our favorite bet here is “Porter to Win And Over 1.5 Rounds” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Porter has won back-to-back high-volume decisions that were good for 101 and 106 points on DraftKings. He’s shown the ability to consistently land a ton of striking volume, while also mixing in some grappling to further boost his scoring. However, he’s yet to show any finishing ability inside of the UFC Octagon and also hasn’t landed a finish in the first round of any fight since 2011. That likely caps his ceiling to some extent, but his floor is massive when he wins. Unfortunately, his DFS price tag has finally caught up to that, after he was priced at just $7,000 against Chase Sherman in his last fight. Now, Porter will need to outscore the other highest priced fighters on the slate to end up in tournament winning lineups, which is a tougher task for a 262 lb Heavyweight who relies on sheer output to score well. With that said, this looks like a favorable matchup for a striking explosion as Baudot is just an overinflated Light Heavyweight who also throws a ton of volume without much power behind it. This sets up well for a high-paced brawl with an insane amount of volume being thrown for a Heavyweight fight. Baudot has also been finished in 4 of his last 5 fights, if you look past the two matches that were overturned for failed drug tests. He also tends to cover up when faced with adversity, giving his opponents a chance to score a TKO win. That gives Porter an increased chance to land a finish here and keeps him squarely in play even at his elevated price tag. The odds imply Porter has a 68% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Baudot is once again in a great leverage spot for DFS as he’s 0-2 in the UFC and has been finished in both of those losses, which will drive up Porter’s ownership, as it should. Baudot landed 50 significant strikes in just the first round of his last fight, and while we have serious concerns as to whether or not he actually possesses the power to knockout UFC Heavyweights, he undoubtedly throws enough volume to put up a big score if he ever actually makes it to a decision. There are serious concerns surrounding his durability and heart as he quickly covered up in his last two fights at the first signs of adversity, and relying on him to suddenly show a renewed sense of toughness to stand and bang for 15 minutes may be asking a lot. With that said, Baudot throws more than enough volume to return value in a decision win if he ever gets one. Working in Baudot’s favor, Porter has been finished in all five of his career losses, including three first round knockouts. This is a favorable matchup for Baudot to get a finish even if he has looked undergunned when it comes to power. Overall, this is a fight to target both sides of with your exposure in DFS, as we expect it to be a high-volume brawl with high finishing potential for the winner. The odds imply Baudot has a 32% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Kyle Daukaus
5th UFC Fight (1-2, NC)Daukaus’ last three scheduled opponents over two different cards have all dropped out of fights against him, as his latest struggle to keep an opponent continues. After an accidental headbutt resulted in his last fight against Kevin Holland being ruled a No Contest back in October 2021, Daukaus had been scheduled to run it back with Holland in November. However, Holland withdrew and Roman Dolidze stepped in. Then, Dolidze also withdrew due to COVID protocols and the fight was scrapped altogether. Daukaus was then matched up with Julian Marquez on this card, but Marquez withdrew and Pickett was announced as the late replacement on February 8th, 11 days before the event.
The last time we saw Daukaus he was choking out a woozy Kevin Holland, who was just waking up from being knocked out from an accidental clash of heads. The fight lasted less than four minutes, with Daukaus going just 1 for 5 on his takedowns. It only took 14 seconds for Daukaus to attempt his first takedown in the match and the entire fight was spent mostly in the clinch along the fence. Dan Miragliotta separated the two fighters midway through the round and just seconds later is when the clash of heads occurred. As soon as Holland fell face first to the mat, Daukaus jumped on top of him, which appeared to wake Holland up. As he tried to recover, Daukaus wrapped up a choke. While Holland escaped the initial submission attempt, as soon as he returned to his feet Daukaus took his back and wrapped up a standing rear-naked choke that forced Holland to tap. At that point there was much deliberation before it was finally ruled a No Contest as the clash of heads began the entire finishing sequence.
That would have been Daukaus’ first finish in the UFC after all three of his earlier UFC fights ended in decisions. He was known for his submissions prior to joining the organization, starting off his career with six straight submission wins,then landing two more in between a decision win on DWCS in 2019 and his UFC debut in 2020. Overall, he holds a 10-2 career record, with eight wins by submission and two by decision. His only two career losses both went the distance. Three of his submission wins occurred in round one, four occurred in round two, and one came in round three.
Alternating wins and losses over his first three UFC fights, Daukaus’ second most recent fight was a decision loss to Phil Hawes. Just prior to that, he won a decision against a debuting Dustin Stoltzfus, after losing a decision to Brendan Allen in his debut. The loss to Allen was Daukaus’ first career loss.
In his four UFC fights, Daukaus has only landed 6 of his 24 takedown attempts (25%), but he did go 2 for 5 on DWCS, which slightly boosts his official career average to 27%.
The majority of his fights have been spent either in the clinch or on the mat with an average of 47% control time for him and 29% control time against him. A ridiculous 76% of his UFC fight time has been spent with him either controlling his opponent or getting controlled. Unsurprisingly, that has driven down the significant striking totals in his fights as he’s averaged just 3.19 SSL/min and just 2.61 SSA/min.
Jamie Pickett
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Making a quick turnaround following his second straight low-volume decision win, Pickett is just five weeks removed from a victory over UFC newcomer Joseph Holmes. After Holmes won the first round, Pickett was able to take the later two rounds to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. The only thing that really separated the two fighters on the final statsheet was Pickett landing two 2 on 4 attempts, while Holmes went 0 for 2. Holmes narrowly led in significant strikes 51-50, in total strikes 59-54, and in control time 3:15-3:02. Large portions of the fight were spent with the two pushing each other up against the cage, similar to Pickett’s previous fight.
After losing his first two UFC fights, Pickett notched his first UFC win in a slow-paced decision over Laureano Staropoli. The two fighters spent most of the fight pushing each other up against the fence. When they were in open space, Pickett appeared reluctant to let his hands go despite holding a massive 8.5” reach advantage. With that said, both guys were unimpressive and Pickett finished ahead in significant strikes 47-25 and in total strikes 58-43. He also landed both of his takedown attempts while stuffing 8 of Staropoli’s 9 attempts, although Staropoli finished ahead in control time with 5:26 to 2:37.
Just prior to that win, Pickett suffered his first career KO loss, which came against a terrible, albeit occasionally dangerous, Jordan Wright. Pickett lasted just 64 seconds in that match and appeared to panic once Wright got him in a Thai clinch and started throwing knees. At that point, Pickett instinctually shot for a takedown but left his head exposed, absorbing a series of heavy elbows. While Pickett momentarily recovered, Wright regained the clinch and landed a knee that dropped Pickett, then finishing him on the ground as the fight was quickly stopped.
The only other two times Pickett has been finished in his career both ended in submissions. Now 13-6 as a pro, he also has three decision losses. Eight of his 13 wins have ended in knockouts, while he also has one submission win and three decision victories. He’s won three of the last four decisions he’s been to, with the one loss over that stretch coming in his UFC debut against Tafon Nchukwi.
If Pickett had not gotten a shot in the UFC it would not have been for a lack of effort. He attempted to earn a UFC contract on DWCS not once, not twice, but three times. As is often the case, the third time was the charm. In his first DWCS appearance back in 2017, he was submitted in the first round by former UFC fighter Charles Byrd. In his second time on the show, he lost a three-round decision to dangerous UFC finisher Punahele Soriano in 2019. But on his third try in August 2020, he landed a R2 KO against suspect talent Jhonoven Pati, leading him to finally make it into the UFC.
Pickett has yet to do anything to impress us since joining the UFC and while he’s got decent athleticism, he is habitually tentative with his striking. He’s not overly impressive with his grappling despite being a BJJ brown belt. Five of his last seven fights have gone the distance, but he failed to top 50 significant strikes in any of his four UFC fights or in his three appearances on DWCS. Overall, Pickett is decent everywhere but exceptional nowhere and it seems like at this point he just is what he is, despite his claims that he’s got a lot left to show people.
Fight Prediction:
Daukaus will have a 1” height advantage, but Pickett will have a 4” reach advantage.
Both of these two fighters have been in their fair share of boring clinch battles and it would surprise no one if this bout played out along those lines. Historically, Pickett has been a knockout threat, while Daukaus has been a submission specialist, but they’re both still searching for their first official finish inside of the Octagon. While Daukaus has never been finished as a pro, Pickett has been submitted twice, which gives some reason to favor Daukaus to land another submission here. With that said, Pickett is a BJJ brown belt and not helpless on the mat, so it’s more likely this fight ends in a low-volume decision with extended periods of time spent in the clinch pressed up against the cage. If it does end early though, look for it to be from a Daukaus submission. If it goes to a decision, as we expect it will, it could be close, but we like Daukaus to get his hand raised in what could be a near must-win spot to keep his UFC career going after starting 1-2.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at -130.
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DFS Implications:
Daukaus looked like a promising finisher outside of the UFC, with 100% of his non UFC/DWCS fights ending in submission wins, but he’s yet to officially notch a finish since joining the organization. The fact that he choked out a compromised Kevin Holland in his last fight could have the field slightly more excited about Daukaus’ chances, but in the end the fight was ruled a No Contest after an accidental clash of heads. Due to his grappling-heavy fighting style, Daukaus is a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, and has a decent floor based on control time. However, at his high price tag, it appears he’ll need a finish here to be useful, as he’s really struggled with his takedown accuracy (27%) and is unlikely to put up a huge score through grappling alone. The odds imply Daukaus has a 68% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
With three of his four UFC fights going the distance, Pickett has proven to us he needs a finish to put up a useful score. The decision loss in his UFC debut was good for just 22 DraftKings points and his recent two decision wins both scored exactly 66. Even at his cheaper price tag we don’t see Pickett ending up in tournament winning lineups unless he becomes the first fighter to ever finish Daukaus. Pickett has been extremely tentative with his striking since joining the UFC, but if he can ever let his hands go he could be dangerous as he has a massive 80” reach. With that said, we’ll believe it when we see it and that’s not something we’re willing to chase. The odds imply Pickett has a 32% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Jamahal Hill
6th UFC Fight (3-1, NC)This fight had been scheduled to go three rounds as the co-main event, but got elevated to a five-round main event on just over a week’s notice after Rafael Fiziev ran into visa issues and had his fight with RDA postponed.
Fresh off an impressive win over a dangerous Jimmy Crute, Hill made short work of the Australian as he dropped him twice on his way to knocking him out in just 48 seconds. Both knockdowns resulted from Hill landing his lead right hook. Somehow, Hill wasn’t credited with an official knockdown on the first of the two. The fight was so brief, it’s hard to take too much away from it other than Hill continues to impress with his boxing and is capable of finishing anyone out in the Octagon.
The only time Hill has ever lost a fight as a pro came in his second most recent match, when he had his elbow dislocated by Paul Craig early in the first round. Hill showed off his toughness as he refused to tap to the armbar, which resulted in it going down as a TKO instead of submission as the referee obliviously let the fight continue despite Hill’s arm flopping around. Craig pulled guard to get the fight to the mat and immediately looked to lock up Hill’s arm as he worked towards the armbar submission that eventually dislocated Hill’s elbow.
Prior to that loss, Hill had knocked out OSP in the second round of a December 2020 match after coming back from a suspension for testing positive for THC following a May 2020 R1 KO win. That failed test resulted in his first UFC knockout win to be overturned to a No Contest. He won a decision in his January 2020 UFC debut following a second-round KO win on DWCS in July 2019. That decision in Hill’s debut is the only time he’s been past the second round in his last seven fights, after three of his first four pro matches all went the distance, including a five-round decision win over future UFC fighter Dequan Townsend.
Hill is now 9-1, with five wins by KO (not counting the R1 KO that was overturned to a No Contest) and four wins by decision. All of those knockouts occurred in the first two rounds, with three in round one and two in round two. It would have been four in round one if one of those hadn’t later been overturned. His only loss went down as a TKO, but it was caused by an armbar submission. If we include the knockout that was later overturned, seven of his 11 fights have ended early, all in the first two rounds, with five ending in round one.
A high-volume striker, Hill lands an average of 7.45 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.68 per minute. He relies entirely on his striking and has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. While we saw him get taken down six times in his UFC debut, he hasn’t been taken down in his four fights since, nor was he grounded on his DWCS appearance.
Johnny Walker
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Now 1-3 in his last four fights, Walker is coming off a five-round decision loss to Thiago Santos in what played out as a 25 minute staring contest. Easily in contention for worst fight of the year in 2021, Walker’s corner didn’t seem to be saying any of the right things to get the most out of their fighter. Even going into the 5th round in a close fight where a big moment could win it, they’re advice was, “I think we’re up, but it doesn’t matter” and “keep doing what you’re doing…keep circling off the cage” and “feint all day long.” There was never any talk of needing to turn up the aggression or to try and do something to clearly win the fight. They appeared entirely content with cruising to a close decision and letting the chips fall where they may. Walker entered the 5th round narrowly ahead 40-34 in significant strikes, landing an abysmal 2.00 SS/min, so the idea that his corner would tell him to keep doing what he’s doing is certainly concerning. Adding to that concern, that was just Walker’s second training camp at SBG Ireland, a new camp he chose because it was near where his girlfriend was living in Ireland. Walker listened to the poor advice from his corner and in a fight that turned out to be dead even on all three judges’ scorecards after four rounds, Walker lost the last round largely due to lack of output and aggression. Santos led the final five minutes just 10-8 in significant strikes, which was enough to win the fight in a unanimous 48-47 decision. Walker slightly led in striking 48-44, but Santos had the more impactful moments in the match even if they were few and far between. That’s the second straight time we’ve seen Santos be involved in an ultra slow paced fight that left everyone scratching their head. While he’s undoubtedly a major contributor to the little action we saw in that last match, we still have concerns with the coaching Walker is receiving. The only thing that would make sense is Walker and his entire team bet on the fight to go the distance, as even in the loss Walker didn’t appear at all upset.
Walker has now lost 3 of his last 4 fights, with his only win over that stretch coming against Ryan Spann in September 2020. Both guys came out throwing, but after a brief initial exchange Spann was able to get Walker to the ground just 10 seconds into the fight. Walker immediately returned to his feet, where the next minute was spent by Spann pushing him up against the cage. The two finally broke midway through the round and Spann dropped Walker with a left hook. He then mounted him as he looked for the finish but Walker was able to reverse it and get back up. Amazingly, Spann briefly dropped him again, but Walker immediately returned to his feet. At that point Spann shot for a takedown, but as he did Walker landed a series of heavy elbows and hammer fists on Spann to get the fight stopped. After getting taken down and knocked down twice in just half of a round of action, Walker easily could be looking at a four fight losing streak had he not narrowly hung on to defeat Spann.
Walker started his pro career in 2013 and went 13-3 his first 16 fights with all of those ending early, including 12 in the first round (11-1). He then went on DWCS in 2018 and despite the fight going the distance, Walker still made it into the UFC. Both him and his opponent were completely gassed by the third round, in what was just Walker’s second career fight to make it to the third round up until that point and first to make it past the ten and a half minute mark.
Walker then made his UFC debut in 2018 against Khalil Rountree and won with a first round KO from a series of elbows in just under two minutes. He followed that up with a 15 second R1 KO of Justin Ledit with a spinning backfist, but came inches away from landing an illegal kick that could have cost him the fight had it landed. He kept the R1 KO streak alive with a 38 second knockout of Misha Cirkunov with a flying knee after defeating Ledet. He then finally faced some adversity for the first time since joining the UFC when he faced fellow Light Heavyweight, Cory Anderson.
Corey Anderson knocked Walker out just over two minutes into the first round of a November 2019 match. After a minute of feeling each other out, Anderson was able to drop Walker with a combination of punches. Walker was able to hang on for a little bit as he returned to his feet but he was clearly hurt. The referee ended up stopping the fight on the feet soon after as Anderson continued to tee off on Walker. Following his first early loss in the UFC, Walker lost a smothering decision against a really tough Nikita Krylov who quickly wore Walker down with wrestling. Walker looked exhausted by the second round in that fight, as he went the distance for what was just the second time in his career. He bounced back with the win over Spann, leading up to his most recent decision where he saw the 4th round for the first time.
Walker is now 4-3 in the UFC with five of those fights ending in first round KOs (4-1), all in under three minutes, and the other two going the distance (0-2). Looking at his entire pro career, he is now 18-6 as a pro, with 15 wins by KO, two by submission, and just one by decision. His two submission wins were a 2015 R1 rear-naked choke and a 2017 R1 guillotine. He nearly had another submission locked up on DWCS, but somehow wasn’t able to finish. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once and lost two of the three decisions he’s been to, which both occurred in his last three fights. Of his 21 pro fights to end early (17-4), only one has made it to the third round, which was a 2015 R3 KO win 28 seconds into round three in Walker’s 5th pro fight. He’s had three fights end in round two (1-2), with a 2014 KO loss, a 2015 submission loss, and a 2018 KO win. With that, 17 of his 24 pro fights have ended in the first round, with him winning 15 of those.
Historically, Walker has been a wild power puncher with a 5-8 minute gas tank, although it appears his new team is trying to instill a more patient approach in him, at least if his last fight is any indicator. It will be interesting to see how aggressive he looks in this next fight. He hasn’t attempted a takedown in any of his UFC fights, and only wants to go to the ground if it’s to do the worm as he celebrates a victory. He relies on his power and athleticism to win fights and looks extremely hittable with a poor striking defense.
Fight Prediction:
Walker will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
With Walker’s last four wins coming by first round knockout and six of Hill’s last seven fights also ending in KO/TKOs in the opening two rounds, it would be surprising to see another prolonged staring contest here. Even if Walker continues to dial back his intensity, potentially with the goal of trying to prolong his cardio, we expect Hill to be far more aggressive than Santos was in Walker’s last fight. That should force Walker into a firefight and we’d be surprised to see this fight make it past the second round. Walker has looked very hittable, which is a major problem going against someone with the speed and power that Hill has. While Walker is always live to land a knockout early in fights, we pick Hill to knock him out in the first 10 minutes.
Our favorite bet here is “Hill R1 or R2 KO” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Hill is coming off a career-best performance from a DFS perspective where he scored 127 DraftKings points despite arguably being robbed of a second knockdown on the statsheet. That 48 second round one KO win came against a really tough Jimmy Crute, and confirmed Hill is a serious threat in the Light Heavyweight division. While he doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling, Hill lands a high amount of striking volume as he averages 7.45 SSL/min. It would be surprising to see this upcoming fight make it past the 10 minute mark, but Hill’s striking volume could keep him in play even if this fight does run longer than expected. Walker has been knocked out in 3 of his 6 career losses, with all of those knockouts coming in the first two rounds, and his striking defense is poor. While Walker is always offensively dangerous, this still looks like a favorable matchup for Hill to land another early knockout and put up a big score. Just expect him to be popular coming off his recent slate-breaking performance and now checking in as a five-round favorite. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
All four of Walker’s UFC victories have ended in the first round, as have 15 of his 18 overall career wins. Historically, he’s been a R1 KO or bust fighter, although his new team at SBG Ireland appears to be trying to slow down the pace at which he fights, at least if his last fight is any indication. Walker’s four UFC wins have been good for 107, 127, 128, and 104 DraftKings points, which isn’t surprising considering they’ve all come in the opening three minutes of fights. Prior to his recent five-round decision loss, we had seen him gas out hard following the first round, which may be something his new team is working on, but is still something to keep in mind. The only time Hill has ever lost a fight is when his elbow dislocated against Paul Craig from an armbar, so it doesn’t appear to be an especially favorable matchup for Walker to potentially land a knockout. However, Hill does have a tendency to keep his chin up and his hands down, and there’s always a chance Walker could land something clean and be the first person to ever knock Hill out. Walker also has over twice as many pro fights as Hill despite being a year younger, and will have a height and reach advantage. It’s hard to see a scenario where Walker wins a decision as Hill has much better cardio and striking output, so Walker will need a finish to win this fight and it’s extremely rare for him to finish anybody beyond the first round. At his cheap price, it’s almost impossible to see him land a finish and not end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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