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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #14
Erin Blanchfield
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Blanchfield absolutely dominated her first two UFC opponents, as she landed 10 takedowns on 11 attempts with almost 22 minutes of total control time in those two matches. She made her debut against a terrible Sarah Alpar, so her impressive performance in that fight was not at all surprising, but then she obliterated a much tougher up and coming prospect in Miranda Maverick, which was far more impressive.
In that recent win, Maverick had no answer for anything that Blanchfield was doing, as Blanchfield landed 7 of her 8 takedown attempts with 12 minutes of control time and led in significant strikes 46-21 and in total strikes 96-42. That’s the first time we’ve seen anyone dominate Maverick like that, and Blanchfield looks like a real problem for the rest of the division.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Blanchfield has two wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. Her only career loss came in a 2019 split-decision to Tracy Cortez. All three of her early wins occurred in the first two rounds, including two in round one.
Overall, Blanchfield is a BJJ black belt and is primarily a grappler but appears to slowly be expanding her striking repertoire and she landed a second round KO by head kick in 2020. Her striking game is still relatively unimpressive compared to her grappling, but earlier in her career she would spend entire fights in the clinch whereas recently she’s been more willing to stand and trade at times when she needs to. She’s still just 23 years old and improving every time she steps inside the Octagon.
JJ Aldrich
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Entering this matchup on a three fight winning streak, Aldrich has gone the distance in five straight fights and 10 of her last 11. She defeated a pair of grapplers in Gillian Robertson and Vanessa Demopoulos her last two fights, and also has a decision win over armbar specialist Polyana Viana back in 2018.
In her last fight, Aldrich was able to stuff five of Gillian Robertson’s six takedown attempts, and finish ahead in significant strikes 60-52 and in total strikes 76-67. Aldrich came in with a very defensive approach, focussed mostly on preventing takedowns opposed to mounting much offense of her own. However, she methodically picked her spots with her boxing throughout the fight as she cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Aldrich has two wins by KO and nine decisions. She’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision defeats. The only time Aldrich has been finished in her last 13 fights was in a 2019 R2 TKO against Maycee Barber in Aldrich’s first UFC fight up at 125 lb after she started her career down at 115 lb. Since the loss to Barber, Aldrich has gone 4-1, with two of those ending in split-decisions (1-1). Her last 11 fights have all made it out of the first round.
Overall, Aldrich has decent boxing and has started mixing in more takedowns recently. She has a solid 72% career takedown defense, and four of the seven times she’s been taken down came in her 2016 UFC debut. Since then, she’s only been taken down three times on 19 attempts (84% defense) in her last nine fights. She trains at elevation in Colorado, which should help her cardio later in fights.
Fight Prediction:
Aldrich will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is six years older than the 23-year-old Blanchfield.
Aldrich has done a good job of neutralizing grapplers in the past, but this looks like her toughest test to date. She generally does a good job of remaining defensively sound and slowing fights down when she needs to. Her takedown defense has been solid, but it’s sure to get tested here and Blanchfield has landed all but one of her takedown attempts so far in the UFC. Aldrich is a training partner of Miranda Maverick, so it’s possible she can learn something from Maverick’s loss to Blanchfield, but we don’t see Aldrich being able to shut Blanchfield down the way she was able to with Robertson in her last fight. While Aldrich will likely slow the fight down to some extent and reduce the chances for a finish, we fully expect Blanchfield to get the win, most likely in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Blanchfield Decision” at -140.
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DFS Implications:
Blanchfield has looked sensational in her first two UFC fights, scoring 115 and 126 DraftKings points. She dominated both of her opponents on the mat, landing a combined 10 takedowns and nearly 22 minutes of control time. Now she’ll face a tougher test to score well against in a defensively sound JJ Aldrich, who everyone has struggled to take down since her debut. Aldrich appears to have no problem forgoing her own offense to negate her opponent’s, which is far from ideal when it comes to DFS scoring. While Blanchfield showed us she’s for real in her last fight when she dominated Miranda Maverick the same way she did Sarah Alpar previously, this is one of the tougher matchups she could ask for when it comes to once again hitting a ceiling performance. Aldrich has only been taken down three times on 19 attempts in her last nine fights and has only been finished once in her last 13 matches, which came in a 2019 TKO against Maycee Barber. While Blanchfield undoubtedly has the skill set to buck the trend, almost no one scores well against Aldrich. The odds imply Blanchfield has a 79% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Aldrich has never been one to score well in DFS, averaging 71 DraftKings points in her seven UFC wins, which all went the distance. She’s only topped 69 points twice and even at her ultra cheap price tag she’s unlikely to even serve as a value play without a finish or a career best performance. It’s really hard to see her achieving either of those in this matchup and it will take something crazy like a freak injury or a DQ for Aldrich to end up in tournament winning lineups. She’ll rightfully be the lowest owned fighter on the slate. The odds imply she has a 21% chance to win, a 9% chance to get a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #13
Rinat Fakhretdinov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a January 2021 violent 55 second R1 KO win over former UFC fighter Eric Spicely, Fakhretdinov generally does most of his damage on the mat, but was able to starch Spicely on the feet. That was Fakhretdinov’s first fight since August 2019, so he’s fought just once in nearly three years and is now coming off a 17 month layoff.
His last win ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, but he did show that he has the power to knock opponents out on the feet and not just land finishes on the mat. Prior to that quick knockout, Fakhretdinov put on a smothering grappling performance in the only decision he’s been to in his last nine fights.
Fakhretdinov’s record differs slightly depending on where you look (18-1 vs. 20-2), but either way he’s been on a roll and if we go with the 18-1 record, he’s won 17 straight fights since suffering his only career loss in a 2013 decision in his second pro fight. He has 11 wins by KO, five by submission, and two decisions. All 16 of his finishes have come in the first two rounds, including 12 in round one and 4 in round two. Six of his last eight finishes have come by KO/TKO, while his last four submission wins have all ended in guillotines.
Overall, Fakhretdinov is a relentless Russian wrestler who’s only real concern is his lack of activity, as he has just 55 seconds of cage time since August 2019. He’s primarily looking for control and ground and pound on the mat, but will lock up a guillotine when the opportunity presents itself. He looks like an interesting prospect, but we still haven’t seen him face much in terms of competition.
Andreas Michailidis
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Likely fighting for his job after starting 1-2 in the UFC, Michailidis is moving down to 170 lb for the first time in his career after debuting at 205 lb less than two years ago. His last two fights have both been at 185 lb, which is where he’s competed at for almost his entire career. He’s coming off an early R2 TKO loss to Alex Pereira, and also lost via TKO following the first round in his 2020 UFC debut against Modestas Bukauskas. His lone UFC win came in a decision against a terrible K.B. Bhullar.
In his last fight, Michailidis smartly looked to grapple against one-dimensional kickboxer Alex Pereira, and was able to land two takedowns on seven attempts with nearly four minutes of control time in the first round. However, once the two fighters returned to space to start the second round, Pereira quickly landed a flying knee to end the fight. Michailidis was never able to do anything with his takedowns except ware himself out and he looked tired by the end of round one.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Michailidis has seven wins by KO, four by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out in all five of his losses, with three of those ending in round two, one in round one and another in round three. His last eight early wins have occurred in the first round and it’s been 11 years since he finished an opponent beyond round one.
Overall, Michailidis is a sloppy fighter with a terrible gas tank. While he’s technically a BJJ black belt and does have four submission wins on his record, all four of those came in his first six pro fights and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2014. Michailidis does wildly shoot for a decent number of takedowns, but is generally just looking for ground and pound if he does get fights to the mat. He also notably tends to gas out much faster when he tries to wrestle.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” but Michailidis will have a 2” reach advantage.
The UFC is giving Michailidis his second straight tough prospect and this looks like a difficult spot for Michailidis to pull off the upset. With that said, with Michailidis dropping down to 170 lb for the first time in his career, and Fakhretdinov coming off a long layoff and making his debut, there are several variables in play that make this a higher variance spot. We also haven’t seen Michailidis have to wrestle defensively yet in the UFC, as none of his first three opponents attempted a takedown. What we do know is that Michailidis has terrible cardio, so it will be interesting to see how he looks following the additional weight cut. He’s already been knocked out in all five of his pro losses, and if the weight cut further diminishes his chin he could be looking at a short night in the office. Michailidis looks like he’ll need to land a hail mary finish in the first round to pull off the upset and we don’t see it happening. We like Fakhretdinov to control the fight and get a finish in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Fakhretdinov ITD” at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Fakhretdinov is a Russian wrestler who smothers opponents on the mat but only has a minute of cage time in the last three years. His fighting style is better suited to the DraftKings scoring system compared to FanDuel, however, his history of finishes keeps him in play on both sites. He’s the type of fighter that will typically rack up a ton of control time and ground strikes, but he’s also finished almost all of his opponents in the first two rounds. The only concerns with him are that he’s making his UFC debut and has only fought once in nearly three years, which was back in January 2021. He’ll also be going against an opponent who’s moving down to a new weight class, so overall this is somewhat of a higher variance spot. With that said, Fakhretdinov has looked so consistently dominant that it’s hard to see him failing here and he looks like a DFS scoring machine. The odds imply he has a 70% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Michailidis continues to underwhelm in the UFC and he’s likely fighting for his job here after starting 1-2 with the organization. He’s been finished in under six minutes in each of his two UFC losses, and couldn’t even finish a terrible K.B. Bhullar in his lone decision win. He also has serious cardio concerns and will now be moving down to 170 lb for the first time in his career. Considering all five of his career losses have come by KO, his chin will be an even bigger concern following the weight cut. The only reason to consider playing Michailidis in this spot is that he’s the one with UFC experience taking on the newcomer, and he should have maximum motivation to get the win if he is fighting for his job as we suspect. His last eight finishes have all come in the first round, so if he is able to pull off the upset it would likely score well and he would be a massive leverage play at low ownership. We don’t see it happening, but hey, anything can happen in a fight. The odds imply he has a 30% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Jeff Molina
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Molina has been impressive in both of his first two UFC fights, with a high-volume brawling decision win in his UFC debut, followed by an early R2 TKO win. After losing two of his first three pro fights, he’s now won nine straight, with seven of those wins coming early. He’s been training with the former champ in Brandon Moreno ever since Moreno moved to Glory MMA & Fitness, which is obviously helpful.
In Molina’s last fight, his opponent, Daniel Da Silva started strong, landing several solid kicks and then taking Molina’s back on the feet. Molina was able to shake Da Silva off the top and then avoid armbar and triangle choke attempts from Da Silva on the mat. Molina finished the round landing heavy ground and pound and Da Silva saw round two for just the second time in his career. Molina dropped Da Silva 20 seconds into round two as Da Silva appeared to be fading, and Molina was easily able to force a stoppage through ground and pound on the mat as Da Silva simply covered up.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Molina has four wins by KO, four by submission, and two decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted once, and has one decision loss. That lone submission loss came 63 seconds into his 2017 pro debut, which he notably fought up a weight class at 135 lb. His only other loss came in a split decision a few months later. While six of his 12 career fights have ended in the first round (5-1), his last four have all made it to round two. All seven of his early wins have occurred in the first two rounds.
Overall, Molina is an exciting fighter who’s shown the ability to land a ton of significant strikes and has sneaky power for a Flyweight. He showed that he can defend submission attempts in his last fight, when he went against a dangerous submission threat in Daniel Da Silva. His biggest concerns appear to be his striking and takedown defenses and he’s averaged 6.12 SSA/min with just a 37% takedown defense.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
5th UFC Fight (1-3)Looking to bounce back from his first early loss since 2015, it’s a little surprising that Zhumagulov is still on the roster after starting 1-3 with the UFC, but you have to imagine he’s fighting for his job here. After fighting to seven straight decisions from 2017 to 2021, including four five rounders, his last two fights have each ended in the first round. He submitted a terrible Jerome Rivera with a guillotine choke to notch his only UFC win and then got knocked out by Manel Kape most recently.
In his last fight, Zhumagulov came out ultra aggressive, looking to push the pace from the start. That forced the more patient Kape into an uptempo striking battle and it would have been interesting to see if they could have maintained that pace for three rounds. Zhumagulov landed some good shots, but Kape began to take over as the round progressed and dropped Zhumagulov in the final 90 seconds with a straight right hand. Zhumagulov was able to return to his feet, but Kape smelled blood in the water and backed him up against the cage before flipping on the nitro boosters and going full matrix mode on him to get the finish. The fight ended with Kape ahead 53-31 in significant strikes with no takedowns attempted. Kape was on pace to land 197 significant strikes over 15 minutes compared to 115 for Zhumagulov.
Now 14-6 as a pro, Zhumagulov has seven wins by KO, one by submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has four decision losses. Prior to his last two fights ending in the first round, he had seen the second round in 13 straight fights and had gone to seven straight decisions.
Overall, Zhumagulov is an experienced grinder who isn’t exceptional at anything but is decently well rounded. He’ll mix in takedown attempts, but also has no problem keeping fights standing. We shouldn’t have to worry about his cardio late in fights, as four of his last five fights before joining the UFC were five-round decisions. He showed a higher pace in his last fight than we’ve seen in the past, so it will be interesting to see if that carries over into this next match.
Fight Prediction:
Molina will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This sets up as a fun uptempo scrap, with both guys showing a willingness to throw down. While Zhumagulov was finished in his last fight, both guys have generally been very durable, so it would be somewhat surprising to see a finish. With that said, Molina has had a knack for getting opponents out of there, although two of his last three fights have gone the distance. Zhumagulov should have the wrestling advantage, and we could see him revert to a more grappling-heavy game plan coming off a knockout loss. Molina does have four submission wins on his record, although none off his back. We never know how judges will weigh takedowns compared to striking volume, but that could make this a close decision if it goes the distance as we expect it to. Molina should be able to land more volume on the feet, and we’ll give him the slight edge to get his hand raised, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see this end in a split decision with either guy getting the nod.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at -168.
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DFS Implications:
Molina has put up huge DFS scores in both of his UFC fights, totaling 131 DraftKings points in a decision win in his debut, followed by 117 points in an early second round knockout. Those scores were boosted by three knockdowns, which will eventually regress, but his high striking volume and history of finishes always keeps him in the DFS discussion. This sets up as another high-volume fight and Molina should have a solid scoring floor with a chance to hit another ceiling performance. Zhumagulov absorbed 53 significant strikes in just over four minutes of action in his last fight before getting finished late in round one, which if you extend over 15 minutes would have been on pace for 197. When you combine that with the fact that Molina landed 189 significant strikes in his debut, it’s not crazy to think Molina could drop another huge number here. He’s also landed finishes in 8 of his 10 career wins. The odds imply Molina has a 63% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Zhumagulov came out firing in his last fight, setting a higher striking pace than we’ve seen from him in the past. He’s also not shy about shooting for takedowns when he feels like he has the wrestling advantage, and while his accuracy has been poor (21%), he notably went for 11 attempts in his debut. Molina has just a 37% takedown defense and absorbs the second highest average number of significant strikes at 6.12/min, so this looks like a good spot for Zhumagulov to hit a ceiling performance if he can pull off the upset, in what looks like a must win spot for him if he wants to keep his job. Whoever wins this match has a good chance to score well and it’s an interesting fight to target. The odds imply Zhumagulov has a 37% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #11
Tony Gravely
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Coming off a wrestling-heavy decision win, Gravely defeated UFC newcomer Saimon Oliveira back in January. He’s now won three of his last four fights, with his lone loss coming in a R2 TKO against Nate Maness in a fight that Gravely was dominating early and appeared to be seconds away from winning as the first round ended. Gravely has won 10 of his last 12 fights, with his only other loss during that stretch coming in his 2020 pro debut against a really tough Brett Johns in a third round submission.
His recent win included a career best 11 takedowns landed, but there were several moments where it looked like Gravely was moments away from getting submitted and Oliveira finished with four official submission attempts. The first of those came in the opening minute of the fight when Oliveira locked up a guillotine choke, but Gravely was narrowly able to escape. Oliveira continued to look for guillotine opportunities throughout the match, but Gravely did a good job of defending them and finished with 11:28 in control time while landing 11 of his 15 takedown attempts. He also finished ahead in significant strikes 46-35 and in total strikes 66-50.
Now 22-7 as a pro, Gravely has nine wins by KO, three by submission, and 10 decisions. Eleven of his last 13 fights have ended early, although two of his last three wins have gone the distance. He’s been finished in six of his seven losses, with one TKO and five submissions. The only decision loss he’s ever suffered came against Merab Dvalishvili in 2016 before they each joined the UFC. Gravely’s last eight fights have all made it past the first round, with five seeing a third round, but only two of those going the distance.
Overall, Gravely has a celebrated wrestling background in both high school and college, and has trained with the Virginia Tech wrestling team. He’s more of a threat to land finishes through ground and pound than submissions. He’s landed 28 takedowns on 51 attempts in his five UFC fights and averages an impressive 6.8 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Johnny Munoz
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Munoz bounced back from a decision loss to Nate Maness in his August 2020 UFC debut with a second round submission of a non-UFC level talent in Jamey Simmons in August 2021. He’s now coming off another 10 month layoff and overall he hasn’t been a very active fighter lately.
His last fight started slow with only 17 combined significant strikes landed in the first round (11-6 in favor of Munhoz). He didn’t land his first takedown until the final 30 seconds of the round and it was too late to get anything done with it. However, he was able to get the fight back to the mat early in round two and that time he was able to work his way to Simmons’ back and lock up a rear-naked choke. The fight ended with Munoz ahead 14-7 in significant strikes and 24-10 in total strikes, while landing two of his three takedown attempts with two minutes of control time.
Now 11-1 as a pro, Munoz has two wins by KO, seven by submission, and two decisions. His only career loss came by decision in his UFC debut. While his first six finishes all occurred in the first round, his last three have all come in round two and his last five fights have all seen the second round.
Overall, Munoz is a one-dimensional grappler/BJJ black belt, and multi-time IBJJF world champion. He started training judo and jiu-jitsu at a very young age as his father was also a fighter. He doesn’t offer much on the feet, but is good at finding submissions on the mat.
Fight Prediction:
Munoz will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This is an interesting wrestler versus grappler matchup, where Gravely will have the choice of keeping the fight standing where he should have the striking advantage or going into Munoz’s world on the mat where he’ll need to defend constant submission attempts. Gravely has never been shy about going to the mat with grapplers in the past, so we don’t really expect him to start forgo his wrestling here, but it wouldn’t be the craziest idea for him to come in looking to strike on the feet more than normal. Munoz hasn’t had to grapple defensively yet in the UFC, and so far we’ve only seen his offensive grappling in the UFC. Gravely’s biggest weakness has been his submission defense throughout his career, which bodes well for Munoz’s chances of pulling off the upset with a submission. However, we like Gravely to fight smart, avoid getting submitted, and most likely grind out a decision win, with a chance he can land a late knockout.
Our favorite bet here is Gravely’s ML at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Gravely has been a DFS scoring machine, averaging 125 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins. He landed a combined 22 takedowns in those three victories, while also racking up a ton of control time. Both of his losses have come early, so overall he’s been involved in high scoring fights every time he steps inside the Octagon. He’s been prone to getting submitted in the past with five of his seven career losses coming by submission, and had some close calls in his last fight, but he’s still only been submitted once in his last 12 fights. As long as he doesn’t radically change up his game plan or get submitted in this fight, he should put up another big score, regardless of whether he gets a finish or wins a decision. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Munoz is a BJJ black belt and always dangerous looking for submissions on the mat, which has also been Gravely’s biggest weakness. So it makes sense that Munoz has been getting some love as an underdog in this matchup. However, this is a massive step up in competition for Munhoz, who fought one of the worst guys on the roster in his last win, and now will be going against one of the tougher wrestlers in the division. We haven’t seen enough from Munoz to be able to properly gauge how he stacks up against legitimate talents, but he was very tentative early on in his last fight and has fought just once in the last 22 months. He looks like a popular submission or bust play, but if he does get the finish he should score decently. With that said, if he gets controlled for the first round or two and then lands a submission without much behind it, there are still ways he finds a finish and gets left out of tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, a 30% chance to get a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #10
Benoit Saint Denis
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a life-shortening beating in his recent UFC debut, Saint Denis was somehow able to survive to see a decision against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, although almost every other ref on the planet would have stopped the fight in the second round. Prior to joining the UFC, Saint Denis had never lost a fight or even required the judges, and had only even been to the third round once.
In his recent loss, Saint Denis started okay and was able to land a takedown a minute into the match, but the black belt in Dos Santos was quickly able to return to his feet. Dos Santos really began to turn it on early in round two and had Saint Denis badly hurt to the point that he was almost out on the feet. Dos Santos punished Saint Denis throughout the round, outlanding him 94-28 in significant strikes over those five minutes and the beating got so bad that it had the broadcast team pleading that the fight be stopped. Both guys looked exhausted by the end of round two, and round three was much slower paced, with Dos Santos being deducted a point following an eye poke and a groin shot. Nevertheless he won a unanimous 29-26 decision and outlanded Saint Denis 149-67 in significant strikes and 167-80 in total strikes. Saint Denis landed 2 takedowns on 14 attempts, while Dos Santos failed to land any of his four attempts.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Saint Denis has one win by KO and seven submission victories to go along with his lone decision loss. His last six wins have all ended in the first two rounds and he looks to get opponents to the mat and aggressively hunt for submissions. After making his debut at 170 lb, Saint Denis will now drop down to 155 lb for the first time in his career. He interestingly made his pro debut all the way up at 185 lb in 2019, but then dropped down to 170 lb for his second fight, and all the way down to 145 lb somehow for his third match. He then moved back up to 170 lb for his next four fights, before competing at 165 lb twice just before making his pro debut back up at 170 lb. So he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on at weigh-ins.
Overall, Saint Denis is primarily a grappler and showed a non-existent striking defense in his recent debut. He started training in Judo as a kid and was also later in the French Special Forces. While he showed off his toughness in his debut, you always have to wonder what type of long term effects a beating like that will have on his chin.
Niklas Stolze
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Also moving down to 155 lb after spending almost his entire career at 170 lb, Stolze is still in search of his first UFC win after losing his first two fights with the organization. He made his debut against a tough wrestler in Ramazan Emeev and lost a decision after getting taken down four times on 12 attempts. He followed that up with a R1 KO loss against Jared Gooden, who stepped into the fight on short notice.
In that recent loss to Gooden, Stolze got taken down 30 seconds into the fight but was able to return to his feet fairly quickly after momentarily considering a guillotine choke. However, shortly thereafter Gooden was able to drop Stolze with a big right hand and the fight was immediately stopped as Gooden followed it up with ground and pound. Gooden finished ahead 14-7 in striking in a fight that lasted just 68 seconds.
Now 12-5 as a pro, Stolze has four wins by KO, five by submission, and three decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished came in his recent KO loss, with his previous four defeats all going the distance. Two of his last three wins have also gone the distance, and it’s been three and a half years since Stolze finished anybody.
Overall, the German Stolze is an average talent with a decently well rounded game but isn’t really great at anything. His patient striking generally doesn’t lend itself to high striking totals and he hasn’t looked overly aggressive at getting fights to the mat. He has decent submission skills, which is how he’s landed four of his last five finishes, and he’s only landed one knockout since 2015.
Fight Prediction:
Stolze will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This is a tricky one to dissect as neither guy has given us much reason to be confident in them. Saint Denis has been a one-dimensional submission specialist throughout his career, but Stolze has never been submitted. Stolze has faced 13 takedown attempts so far in the UFC, with five of those being landed, which bodes well for Saint Denis’ chances of getting this fight to the mat. However, he still needs to prove that he can control opponents on the ground and work towards submissions at the UFC level. Saint Denis’ striking defense is non-existent, and he hasn’t looked very dangerous on the feet, so if he can’t control Stolze on the mat then he could be in some trouble. On the other side of things, Stolze lost a wrestling-heavy decision in his debut and then got knocked out 68 seconds into his second UFC fight by an opponent that went 1-3 in the UFC. So it’s impossible to have much confidence in him either. The fact that both of these two fighters are moving down to 155 lb adds further uncertainty to the mix and increases the chances of a knockout, but both guys have been more of a threat to land submissions, so that could be less significant than normal. We expect Saint Denis to come in aggressively looking to get the fight to the mat, and we don’t see Stolze preventing him from getting it there. The bigger question will be whether or not Saint Denis can keep Stolze down and/or lock up a submission. If he can, he should be able to win this fight, but if he can’t then Stolze should be able to outland his way to victory on the feet—most likely in a decision, but with a slight chance he lands a knockout if Saint Denis’ chin is compromised following the beating he just took and the subsequent weight cut.
Our favorite bet here is “Stolze Decision” at +420.
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DFS Implications:
Saint Denis showed DFS scoring potential when he attempted 14 takedowns in his recent debut, but he was only able to land two of those and couldn’t do anything with either of them. His 100% finishing rate in his pre-UFC fights is encouraging, but we need to see it at the UFC level to actually have confidence in him. The amount of damage he took in his debut is concerning and it’s hard to know what kind of lasting impact that will have on his chin. In addition to that, both fighters in this matchup are moving down from 170 lb to 155 lb, which adds some additional uncertainty into the mix and increases the chances that we see someone get knocked out. With that said, neither fighter has looked like much of a KO threat and the majority of their finishes have come by submission. Saint Denis appears entirely reliant on his grappling and if he can’t get the fight to the ground then he’ll be in trouble. However, if he is able to find grappling success, then he has the potential to score well in either a submission win or a grappling-heavy decision. Just keep in mind, he lost the only decision he’s ever been to. The odds imply he has a 58% chance to win, a 36% chance to get a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Stolze has yet to show us anything at the UFC level, but also hasn’t had a ton of opportunities to do so. He was defending takedowns for the entire fight in his UFC debut against a smothering Russian wrestler in Ramazan Emeev and then suffered his first career early loss in a 68 second R1 KO against Jared Gooden in his last fight. While getting knocked out by a guy who went 1-3 in the UFC certainly isn’t a good look, Saint Denis isn’t really a KO threat so this will be a different type of matchup. We expect Stolze to be defending takedowns for most of this match, similar to his debut, which will make it tougher for him to score well in a decision and he probably needs a finish to put up a usable DFS score. With that said, Saint Denis absorbed 149 significant strikes in his last fight and looks incredibly hittable. So if Stolze can keep the fight standing and out of the clinch, he does have the potential to land a good number of strikes. The odds imply Stolze has a 42% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Damon Jackson
8th UFC Fight (3-2-1, NC)Jackson had been booked to face Darrick Minner here, but Minner was forced to withdraw due to a concussion and Argueta stepped in on 10 day’s notice. Jackson originally joined the UFC in 2014 and did everything but win, notching a 0-1-1, NC record before getting cut following a 2016 draw. After getting dropped by the organization, Jackson fought 10 times outside of the UFC from 2016 to 2020, going 8-2 before getting called back up. His two losses over that period both came by KO, while the majority of his wins were by submission, including five rear-naked chokes. Making his return to the organization in September 2020, nearly five years after being released, Jackson pulled off the short notice upset in a comeback win against Mirsad Bektic. In a fight he was losing badly, Jackson landed a R3 guillotine to steal the victory and notch his first UFC win. He then got knocked out by Ilia Topuria in the first round of a December 2020 fight, but bounced back with a pair of wins, including a decision over Charles Rosa followed by a second round submission of Kamuela Kirk.
In his recent win, Jackson aggressively came out firing and didn’t attempt his first takedown until the final minute of the round when he dragged Kirk to the mat. He closed out the round on top landing ground and pound and then immediately got the fight back to the mat in round two. Kirk was never able to return to his feet as Jackson spent the entire round landing ground and pound and looking for submissions until he was finally able to force a tap with 18 seconds left on the clock. Kirk was never really able to get anything going in the fight and Jackson finished ahead in significant strikes 32-22, in takedowns 2-0, and in control time 5:37 to zero. Kirk was able to finish ahead in total strikes 60-51, but overall he got dominated in the fight.
Now 20-4 as a pro, Jackson has three wins by KO, 15 by submission, and two decisions. He’s been finished in all four of his career losses, with three KOs and one submission. He would have two submission losses, but a 2015 R1 submission defeat was later overturned to a No Contest when his opponent tested positive for a banned diuretic. Twelve of his last 13 fights have ended early and he’s only been to three decisions in 26 pro fights. He’s won four of his last five and eight of his last 11 fights.
Overall, Jackson is primarily a submission threat but has shown some improvements to his striking. He’s known for his cardio and does a good job of wearing down his opponents. His biggest weakness has been his chin and his last three losses have all ended in knockouts, with the last two ending in round one. With that said, he’s looked better than ever in his last two fights and really seems to be hitting his stride at 33 years old.
Dan Argueta
1st UFC Fight (0-0)After losing a decision to Ricky Turcios on The Ultimate Fighter in May 2021, Argueta returned to the LFA and rattled off three straight victories with a pair of finishes followed by a five-round split decision to win the Vacant LFA Bantamweight Belt just a month ago.
In his recent split decision win, Argueta got taken down very early in round one and spent most of the round on his back before finally returning to his feet in the final minute. He then got outstruck in round two before turning the tables in the later rounds as he relentlessly attacked takedowns, although he was only actually able to land a handful on nearly 20 attempts. He also showed a good chin as he absorbed several clean shots.
Because the loss on TUF is officially counted as an exhibition match, Argueta is technically still undefeated as a pro and holds a perfect 8-0 record. He has two wins by TKO, four by submission, and two decisions. He won his first four fights in the first round and landed another first round submission just after going on TUF, but three of his last four fights have seen the third round, with two going the distance. That’s not counting his decision loss on TUF. Argueta turned pro in 2019 at 145 lb and then fought three straight fights at 150 lb Catchweight followed by another one at 145 lb. He then dropped down to 135 lb when he went on TUF, where he stayed for his last three fights. He notably missed weight by 2 lb in his first fight after TUF. He’ll now be making his short notice UFC debut up at 145 lb on just 10 day’s notice and just 29 days after he fought in a 25 minute fight.
Overall, Argueta relies heavily on his college wrestling background and shoots for a good number of takedowns. He has solid top pressure and ground and pound, but doesn’t offer a ton off his back. He’s not an especially dangerous striker and while 75% of his wins have come early, it’s on the mat where he gets his finishes. He’s looked very hittable in the past and needs to improve his striking defense if he wants his chin to hold up long term, but he has proven himself to be durable up until this point.
Fight Prediction:
Jackson will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
We rarely see fighters win their short notice debuts, and making matters tougher on Argueta, he’ll be fighting up a weight class. With that said, he previously competed at 145 lb prior to going on The Ultimate Fighter, so the division isn’t completely foreign to him. The bigger issue will be that he’s going against another wrestler who is also more of a submission threat and stylistically this doesn't look like a great matchup for Argueta, in addition to the short notice nature of the fight. Working in Argueta’s favor, Jackson has just a 35% takedown defense, but that’s partially due to the fact that he’s happy to try and defend takedowns with submission attempts. Argueta will need to be careful not to fall into a guillotine when looking for takedowns. While Argueta is a decent wrestler, he hasn’t looked good at all off his back and he’ll be in real trouble if he finds himself there. He was taken down twice in his last fight on just two attempts, which isn’t overly encouraging, and Jackson will have a noticeable size advantage. So overall, there are a lot of landmines for Argueta to navigate in this matchup if he wants to avoid getting finished for the first time in his career. With all that said, he’s been durable up until this point and his wrestling background should provide him with some of the tools he needs to stay in this fight if/when it does it the mat. While it’s unlikely he pulls off the upset, it wouldn’t be that shocking to see him survive to see a decision, despite Jackson’s history of finishes. It’s still more likely that Jackson finds his way to a finish, but perhaps not to the extent that the odds indicate. Either way, we like Jackson to get the win here.
Our favorite bet here is “Jackson Decision” at +230.
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DFS Implications:
Jackson failed to top 58 DraftKings points in his five UFC fights, but scored 113 and 107 in his last two matches. He couldn’t have asked for much more in his last fight after he controlled the first two rounds and then landed a late second round submission. Just prior to that he went up against the anemic 38% takedown defense of Charles Rosa and set a career high in takedowns landed and control time and was still able to score well in a decision with the help of three reversals. Now he gets a teed up spot against a short notice UFC newcomer who’s fighting up a weight class, so maybe he’ll hit another ceiling performance, but just keep in mind he’s been pretty fortunate with how the last two fights have played out in terms of his scoring. As the second most expensive fighter on the slate, he’ll likely need to outscore all of the other top priced options to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has an 82% chance to win, a 53% chance to get a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Argueta has a promising fighting style for DFS, with a wrestling-heavy approach that is perfectly suited to the DraftKings scoring system, however, this looks like a really tough spot for him to excel as he makes his debut on 10 day’s notice, up a weight class, and just a month after he won a five-round fight in the LFA. We rarely see short notice debuters pull off the win, and stylistically this looks like a tough matchup for Argueta to find success as he takes on another wrestler with far more experience and submission skills. Argueta relies on getting opponents down and beating them up with ground and pound as he looks for submissions from top position and he hasn’t looked good off his back. Jackson will throw up submissions from all positions, making any move Argueta makes on the mat a risky one. Argueta doesn’t have a great stand up game so his paths to victory here are pretty limited and simply surviving to see a decision would be considered an accomplishment. The only argument for having any exposure is that he’s dirt cheap and will be low owned, so if he somehow finds a way to pull off the upset, he would make for a great leverage play against the popular fighter in Jackson. The odds imply he has an 18% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Joe Solecki
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss, Solecki dropped a close split-decision to Jared Gordon in October 2021. Prior to that, he had won six straight, including a win over Jim Miller just before the loss. Solecki got his shot in the UFC with a first round submission win on DWCS in 2019, and then absolutely smothered veteran Matt Wiman for 15 minutes in his 2019 UFC debut. He followed up the lopsided decision win with a first round submission victory in his next match against Austin Hubbard, before winning the decision over Miller.
In his last fight, Solecki was able to take Gordon down just 15 seconds into the first round. Solecki worked his way to Gordon’s back and was able to control Gordon for four minutes while he hunted for a rear-naked choke. Gordon did a good job of defending the submission attempts and then finally returned to his feet in the final minute of the round with Solecki draped all over him. Solecki then attempted a guillotine choke, but Gordon defended that as well and then found himself in top position for the final 30 seconds of the round. Solecki immediately took Gordon back down in round two, but Gordon did a good job of bouncing back up to his feet. Solecki continued to push him up against the cage and look for a takedown, but Gordon defended well until Solecki finally got him down for more than a second midway through the round. However, in a turning point in the fight, Gordon was able to reverse the position and control Solecki on the mat for the remainder of the uneventful round. Round three remained mostly on the feet, and Solecki surprisingly only shot for one failed takedown in the final five minutes. Gordon was a little busier on the feet and also landed the only takedown in the round to steal a decision after getting controlled for the first round and a half of the fight. When the dust settled, Gordon finished ahead 51-38 in significant strikes and 83-70 in total strikes, while Solecki led in takedowns 4-1 and in control time 6:03-4:07. Gordon did just enough to win rounds two and three on the majority of the judges’ score cards to win a close split-decision.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Solecki has one KO, seven submissions, and three decision wins. His only early loss came in a 2018 R3 KO against Nikolas Motta, who has since joined the UFC. Solecki’s other two defeats both went the distance. All eight of Solecki’s early wins have come in the first round, and the only time one of his fights has ended in the second or third rounds was in his R3 KO loss.
Overall, Solecki is a BJJ black belt and a dominant grappler. He’s constantly looking to get fights to the ground and control opponents while he hunts for submissions.
Alex Da Silva
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Returning from a 21 month layoff, Da Silva had been scheduled to face Devonte Smith back in February 2021 but ended up withdrawing and hasn’t been rebooked until now. He’s sitting on a 1-2 UFC record following a decision loss to Brad Riddell and could be fighting for his job here. With just one fight in almost the last three years, he hasn’t been very active, but he’s still just 26 years old and somehow has 24 pro fights under his belt after he turned pro a few weeks before his 18th birthday back in 2014.
In his recent decision loss to Riddell, Da Silva started strong in the first round but faded as the fight went on. He went 3 for 9 on his takedown attempts, but all of those came in the first round. Riddell might have been able to get a R3 KO in this fight, but the ref paused the fight after Riddell landed a clear punch to the eye of Da Silva, which Da Silva protested as a poke and was awarded with a timeout. Riddell finished ahead 67-54 in significant strikes and 86-70 in total strikes.
Now 21-3 as a pro, Da Silva has 13 wins by KO, seven by submission, and one decision. He’s never been knocked out, but was submitted in the second round of his 2019 UFC debut in his only early loss. He’s also lost two of the three decisions he’s been to, with his only decision win coming in his second most recent fight. Seventeen of Da Silva’s 20 finishes have come in the first round, with the other three ending in round two, and he’s the most dangerous early on in fights.
Overall, Da Silva’s career has been based on landing early finishes and he tends to fade later in fights. He’s a purple belt in Luta Livre Esportiva, which is a form of Brazilian Submission Wrestling. He is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but has yet to show he can land finishes at the UFC level.
Fight Prediction:
Solecki will have a 1” height advantage but Da Silva will have a 3” reach advantage.
These two are somewhat similar in the sense that they’re both grapplers and generally all of their finishes come in the first round. Solecki has been the much more impressive of the two and Da Silva really hasn’t done anything special in the UFC so far. With that said, Da Silva is the better striker, so his best shot at pulling off the upset may be to keep the fight standing, but Solecki is unlikely to allow that to happen. That’s not to say Da Silva can’t be competitive on the mat and it could be close early on, but Da Silva tends to fade later in fights. We like Solecki to get the fight to the ground and wear Da Silva out with his grappling. There’s a chance he can land a submission, but it’s more likely Solecki grinds out a decision win.
Our favorite bet here is Solecki’s ML at -160.
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DFS Implications:
Solecki’s grappling-heavy approach to fighting allows him to score well on DraftKings whether he wins early or smothers his opponent for three rounds on his way to a decision win. The same cannot be said on FanDuel, as Solecki scored a massive 119 DraftKings points in his decision win in his UFC debut, but just 78 points on FanDuel. His most recent decision failed to score well on either site, but still performed twice as well on DraftKings where it scored 74 points, compared to just 37 points on FanDuel. So while it’s not a lock Solecki scores well in a decision on DraftKings, he definitely has the ability to put up a big score without a finish, while he clearly needs a finish on FanDuel. This isn’t the easiest matchup for him to put on a dominating grappling performance, but we still like his chances to outclass Da Silva on the mat. The odds imply he has a 60% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Da Silva has a history of being a finisher, with 20 of his 21 career wins coming early, including 17 in round one and three in round two. However, he’s coming off a long layoff, has cardio concerns, and has yet to finish anybody at the UFC level. He should have the striking advantage in this matchup, so there’s always a chance he can catch Solecki with something clean early in the fight and land a knockout, but we don’t love his chances. Da Silva is also a submission threat on the mat, but we still like Solecki’s chances to get the better of him in the grappling exchanges. However, if we’re wrong, then Da Silva also offers grappling upside at a cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Felice Herrig
10th UFC Fight (5-4)This will be a rematch of a 2018 fight that ended in a split-decision win for Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Since then, Kowalkiewicz has lost her last five fights and Herrig has lost two more, extending her losing streak to three.
In their first fight, Kowalkiewicz led the dance in striking, finishing ahead 126-86 in significant strikes and 140-97 in total strikes. Neither fighter was able to land a takedown, Kowalkiewicz on three attempts and Herrig on five. Despite Kowalkiewicz finishing ahead in significant strikes in all three rounds, the fight ended in a split decision, although Kowalkiewicz still got her hand raised. While we saw a decent amount of volume being thrown, it wasn’t the most exciting fight and neither fighter was ever close to landing a finish.
Following the loss to Kowalkiewicz in April 2018, Herrig lost once more that year in October, but then didn’t fight for almost two years until she made her return in August 2020 and got submitted 104 seconds into the first round by Virna Jandiroba. That’s Herrig’s only fight in nearly four years and it’s been 22 months since she competed.
Now 14-9 as a pro, Herrig has one win by KO, four by submission, and nine decisions. The only time she’s ever been finished came in her last fight when she was submitted early in the first round, and her other eight losses all went the distance. Two of her last three decisions have been split (1-1), as have six of her 17 career decisions (3-3). All but one of her 23 pro fights have either ended in submissions or decisions and five of her last six matches have gone the distance.
Herrig’s background was in kickboxing before she transitioned to MMA, but she hasn’t been all that impressive of a striker. She’s also barely fought in recent years as she had a fight canceled in 2019 after she tore her ACL and has struggled to be active since. At 37 years old and on a three fight skid, you have to wonder how many fights she has left or if she’ll hang it up with a loss here.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
13th UFC Fight (5-7)It’s unclear how many opportunities the UFC is prepared to give Kowalkiewicz as she enters this fight on a five fight losing streak and having lost seven of her last nine matches. That losing streak began with a first round KO against Jessican Andrade, before Kowalkiewicz dropped three straight decisions and was then submitted in the first round of her last fight.
In her last fight, Kowalkiewicz idiotically volunteered to join one-dimensional submission specialist Jessica Penne on the mat early in the first round, showing zero fight IQ. Not much happened prior to Kowalkiewicz diving head first into the woodchipper, and the fight ended with Penne ahead 12-8 in significant strikes with a little over three minutes of control time as she finished the armbar late in the round after Kowalkiewicz tried her best to defend it for a period of time. That’s Kowalkiewicz’s only fight since February 2020.
Now 12-7 as a pro, Kowalkiewicz has one win by KO, two by submission, and nine decisions. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has four decision losses. Eleven of her last 14 fights have gone the distance, with the three exceptions all ending in first round losses. Four of those eleven decisions have been split (4-0). All three of her early career wins came in her first five pro fights from 2012 to 2014, with two of those occurring while she was fighting up at Flyweight, before she dropped down to 115 lb in 2014. Since moving down to Strawweight, Kowalkiewicz has gone 8-7, but just 2-7 in her last nine fights. Her only early win in those 15 fights came in a 2014 first round armbar before she joined the UFC and she hasn’t finished anybody in the last eight years.
Overall, Kowalkiewicz is a Muay Thai striker who lands a good amount of striking volume at times as she averages 5.16 SSL/min (3rd highest on the slate) and absorbs 5.56 SS/min (also 3rd highest on the slate). She doesn’t offer much in terms of wrestling and she’s also only landed two takedowns in her 12 fight UFC career. She’s not really a threat to end fights early and she’s really just looking to outland her way to victory.
Fight Prediction:
Herrig will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
Both of these two appear on the verge of retiring or being cut as they’re each on multi fight losing streaks and in their late 30’s. Kowalkiewicz has already shown the ability to outland Herrig in a striking battle and she’s been the more active striker throughout her career. Herrig will likely need Kowalkiewicz to fall into a submission to win this fight, and it’s interesting that she even comes in as the favorite. With that said, we have zero confidence in either one of them, but Kowalkiewicz by decision is our official pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Kowalkiewicz Decision” at +170.
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DFS Implications:
Herrig has averaged 76 DraftKings points in her three decision wins, but did land two submission victories earlier in her career that were good for 102 and 105 DraftKings points. Considering Kowalkiewicz has the fight IQ of a doorknob, there’s always a chance Herrig finds her way to a submission win and puts up a big score. Herrig did score 93 DraftKings points in a grappling-heavy decision win over Justine Kish in 2017, but only scored 69 and 66 points in her other two decision victories. So there’s always a chance she could control Kowalkiewicz on the ground for most of this match and still score well in a decision, but more likely she’ll need a finish to be useful. Working in her favor, she should come in very low owned despite being the favorite, which is the most compelling reason to consider having any exposure to her. The odds imply she has a 52% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Kowalkiewicz hasn’t won a fight since she defeated Herrig in a split decision the first time these two fought back in 2018, but has shown the ability to put up big striking totals, landing 119 or more significant strikes in three of her five UFC wins. She doesn’t add much when it comes to grappling and has only landed two takedowns in 12 UFC appearances, and has also never finished an opponent in the UFC. So her ceiling is somewhat capped and she’s reliant on landing a ton of strikes in the hopes of serving as a value play. She scored a career best 90 DraftKings points the first time these two fought and has also put up scores of 88 and 89 in decision victories in the past. At her cheaper price tag there’s a chance that would be enough to sneak into winning lineups if we only see a few dogs on the slate win, but she would need multiple things to go right. She makes for a better play on FanDuel than DraftKings, where significant strikes are more heavily weighted. The odds imply she has a 48% chance to win, a 14% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Alonzo Menifield
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Menifield had been booked to face Nick Negumereanu originally, but Negumereanu withdrew and Mozharov was announced as the replacement a little over a month out. Looking to bounce back from a close decision loss to William Knight, Menifield has won two of his last three, but is just 2-3 in his last five fights. He’s gone the distance in his last two and three of his last five fights, with the two finishes during that stretch being a 2021 first round submission win over UFC newcomer Fabio Cherant and a 2020 R2 KO loss to Ovince St. Preux. The last time Menifield knocked anybody out was in 2019 when he finished submission specialist Paul Craig. His only other KO win in the UFC came in his 2019 debut against punching bag Vinicius Moreira.
In his last fight, Menifield was able to control Knight for extended periods of time, but failed to do much of anything with those positions and was made to pay for it in the end. After getting controlled for over three minutes in the first round, Knight landed a late knockdown to secure the round and nearly got a finish. Round two stayed entirely on the feet, with Menifield leading the dance in striking to even the fight at one round a piece. Instead of continuing to try and win the fight through striking, Menifield reverted back to pushing Knight against the cage for several minutes in round three and that choice appeared to cost him the fight. The fight ended with Knight ahead in significant strikes 55-44 and total strikes 82-66. He also landed the only knockdown and the only takedown in the fight, while Menifield dominated control time 6:25-0:43. The decision could have gone either way, and it was an underwhelming performance by both guys.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Menifield has eight KOs, two submissions, and one decision win. He’s been knocked out once and has two decision losses. Four of his last five fights have seen the second round, with three going the distance, after his first nine pro fights all ended in under six minutes, including seven in round one. Menifield has never finished an opponent beyond the 5:32 mark in a fight.
Overall, Menifield came into the UFC as a one-dimensional power puncher, but has been trying to mix in a little more grappling lately and fighting more methodically. He failed to land a takedown in his first four UFC fights, but has landed two on four attempts in his last three fights. Menifield is a former college, CFL and Arena League football player, and while he has solid power, his cardio fades later in fights. He said he’s been training with Pat Barry lately, who will be cornering him in this fight, so it will be interesting to see how that changes his approach. Menifield has only landed more than 44 significant strikes once in his career, which is when he landed 93 in a decision win over Ed Herman in his second most recent fight.
Askar Mozharov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a 19 month layoff, Mozharov’s last three fights have all been on the Ukrainian regional scene against complete trash cans. The last time he fought in a legitimate promotion was in a 2019 Titan FC fight and Mozharov quit three minutes into the first round as he got elbowed on the mat. Prior to landing three straight early KOs in 2020 on the Ukrainian regional scene, Mozharov was finished in three straight fights in 2019.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, but Mozharov dropped his opponent with leg kicks in the opening seconds and then immediately finished him with ground and pound. The only real takeaway is that Mozharov throws heavy leg kicks and has been facing bums.
We need to take Mozharov’s record with a massive grain of salt, as it’s shrouded in controversy and inconsistent depending on where you look. Apparently he legally changed his name at one point, potentially to try and erase past losses and has also been accused of actively trying to falsify his record. With that said, going off the information we have available, he’s either 19-12 or 21-11 depending on where you look. We’ll go with the first one for simplicity’s sake. He has 11 wins by R1 KO, six by R1 submission, and two decision wins (2014 & 2015). One of his two decision wins was only two rounds, so he’s only seen the third round once in his career. All 12 of his losses have come early, with four KOs and eight submissions. Twenty of his last 21 fights have ended in the first round, with the one exception ending in round two. He’s fought anywhere from 170 lb to Heavyweight, but has spent most of his career at 170-185 lb. He’ll now be making his debut at 205 lb.
Overall, Mozharov is a one-dimensional striker who relies on his power to win fights. He lacks technique, fight IQ, grappling, speed, movement, and heart. He’s dropped out of his last three fights and this will be the third straight time he’s been booked to make his UFC debut.
Fight Prediction:
Mozharov will have a 3” height advantage, but Menifield will have a 2” reach advantage.
Both of these two rely on their power to win fights and neither guy has ever landed a finish beyond the six minute mark. It seems like Menifield has been attempting to round out his skill sets in his past few fights, whereas Mozharov is still entirely reliant on overwhelming his opponents with power early in fights. Mozharov doesn’t appear to handle adversity well and quit in his last loss as soon as he started taking damage on the mat. If Menifield can put him on his back, he can likely force a stoppage pretty easily or he could just nuke him on the feet. If the fight somehow makes it to round two, we could see both guys gas out and it turn into a staring contest down the stretch, but it would be surprising to see it last that long. Look for Mozharov to try and land heavy kicks early on, while Menifield would be wise to try and take him down and neutralize his power. Considering how one-dimensional and green Mozharov is, it’s surprising that Menifield isn’t a much larger favorite, but Mozharov does have the finishing power to even the odds somewhat. Nevertheless, we like Menifield to use his experience to get the win and he likely gets a first round finish.
Our favorite bet here is Menifield’s ML at -165.
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DFS Implications:
Menefield is your prototypical R1 or bust fighter, who has never landed a finish beyond the six minute mark in a fight. While he hasn’t knocked anybody out since his second UFC fight in 2019, he did land a first round submission in 2021. However, that was only good for 98 DraftKings points and he followed it up with a decision win that scored just 74. The only time he’s topped the century mark on DK was when he scored 114 points in his 2019 UFC debut against Vinicius Moreira, who finished his UFC career 0-4 with four early losses in the first six minutes of fights. Menefield averages just 3.86 SSL/min and has only landed more than 44 significant strikes in one fight, which was when he landed 93 in a decision win over Ed Herman. He’s also never landed more than one takedown in a match, and has just two in his entire UFC career. Nevertheless, now he faces a UFC newcomer who hasn’t fought in almost two years and who has been finished in the first two rounds in all 11-12 of his career losses (depending on where you look), with all but one of those coming in round one. Mozharov has no cardio or heart and has simply quit in the past when facing adversity. As long as Menefield doesn’t just pin him against the fence, which is certainly possible, we should see this fight end in the opening round and a half. This sets up as a good spot for Menefield to put up a big score, but his lack of activity likely still leaves him reliant on an early finish. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in the first round.
Mozharov will be making his UFC following a 19 month layoff and while his last three fights all ended in quick KO wins, he was fighting complete trash cans on the Ukrainian regional scene. This will be a major step up in competition for him and he looks like nothing more than a R1 KO or bust hail mary play. He appears to be a one-dimensional striker, but did land some submissions earlier in his career and will go for guillotines to defend takedowns. He does have the power to land a knockout, but overall he looks like a terrible fighter who has no business in the UFC. The oddsmakers are giving him more of a chance to land a finish than we are, but he at least offers upside in DFS if he is able to land a fight-ending blow. He’s never finished an opponent beyond the first round and has serious cardio concerns if this fight lasts longer than five minutes and we could see him gas out sooner than that. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #5
Ode Osbourne
5th UFC Fight (2-2)After having eight straight fights end in the first round (5-3), Osbourne is coming off a rare decision win in his first trip to the judges, or even out of the first round, since 2016. Just prior to that, Osbourne suffered his first career KO loss in a R1 flying knee KO against Manel Kape, in what was Osbourne’s first fight down at 125 lb. His previous two UFC fights also ended in the first round, with a R1 submission loss to Brain Kelleher in his 2020 UFC debut followed by a 26 second R1 KO over Jerome RIvera.
In his recent decision win over C.J. Vergara, Osbourne took an early striking lead to win the first round, but things got close after that. Vergara actually finished slightly ahead in significant strikes in round two, but Osbourne was able to land a late takedown and finish the round on top in a pivotal moment in the match. Osbbourne unsurprisingly faded in the third round after not being in a fight that lasted longer than five minutes since 2016. That allowed Vergara to take the overall lead in striking in the fight as he led 41-19 in significant strikes and 70-24 in total strikes in the third round alone. Looking at the fight in its entirety, Vergara led in significant strikes 93-79 and in total strikes 122-89, while Osbourne was only able to land one of his seven takedown attempts. All three judges agreed that Osbourne had done enough to win the first two rounds and awarded him a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Osbourne has four wins by KO, four by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. Eight of his last nine and 10 of his last 13 fights have ended in the first round, with the others going the distance. His last three losses have all come in round one, while his lone decision loss occurred back in 2016 in his first trip to the judges. Seven of Osbourne’s eight finishes occurred prior to joining the UFC and the only person he’s finished since joining the organization is Jerome Rivera, who went 0-4 in the UFC with three early losses. Only two of Osbourne’s seven pre-UFC finishes came against opponents with winning records so he definitely hadn’t been facing much in terms of competition. Up until he moved down to 125 lb for his last two fights (1-1), Osbourne had competed at 135 lb (6-3) and 145 lb (3-0) for his entire career. He’s yet to finish an opponent at 125 lb and has gone just 1 for 7 on his takedown attempts.
Overall, Osbourne is an explosive striker with a background in wrestling. After failing to attempt a takedown in his first three UFC fights, he went 1 for 7 in his last match after switching camps to Syndicate MMA, so it will be interesting to see if he incorporates more wrestling moving forward. His cardio later in fights remains a concern and he hasn’t landed a finish beyond the first round since his 2015 pro debut when he submitted an opponent 70 seconds into round two.
Zarrukh Adashev
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off his first UFC win, Adashev defeated Ryan Benoit in a low-volume decision after losing a low-volume decision to Sumudaerji. Prior to splitting the pair of decisions, Adashev got knocked out 32 seconds into the first round of his short notice debut against Tyson Nam. In fairness, Adashev said he took that fight on two day’s notice and had to cut 26 lb, so it was far from an ideal scenario.
In his last fight, Adashev relentlessly attacked Ryan Benoit’s lead leg and had it seriously compromised early in the first round. Benoit was able to drop Adashev late in the first round, but Adashev quickly recovered and returned to his feet. After chopping away at Benoit’s base early, Adashev was able to use his movement to control the range and strike from the outside while Benoit plodded forward on a busted wheel. Adashev finished the fight ahead 78-37 in significant strikes and 81-55 in total strikes, and surprisingly shot for four takedown attempts, but was unable to complete any. Benoit also failed to land a takedown on just one attempt. Adashev seemed content coasting down the stretch, opposed to really pushing for a finish late in the fight.
Still just 4-3 as a pro, Adashev has two wins by KO and two by decision. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has one decision loss. The only time he’s been finished since his 2015 pro debut was in his short notice UFC debut. He made his pro debut at 135 lb. before dropping down to 125 lb for his second pro fight. He did move up to 135 lb for his short notice UFC debut, before moving back down to 125 lb for his last two fights. So his only two early losses both occurred up at 135 lb and he’s 4-1 at 125 lb.
Overall, Adashev has more professional kickboxing experience than professional MMA experience and we’ve yet to see any sort of grappling game from him, as he’s failed to land any of his five takedown attempts. He hasn’t shown a ton of power in his hands but was able to rely on leg kicks to win his last fight. Sitting on a 1-2 record, he could be fighting for his job here and has looked better every time he steps inside the Octagon. He showed a patient game plan in his last fight and will now be going against an explosive finisher who has only been out of the first round once in his last nine fights.
Fight Prediction:
Osbourne will have a 2” height advantage and 8” reach advantage.
Osbourne is pretty long for the Flyweight division, which could give Adashev trouble closing the distance, but also means he has long skinny legs for Adashev to attack. Osbourne is pretty heavy on his lead leg and utilizes a wide stance that should present his lead leg on a silver platter for Adashev to attack. However, if Adashev doesn’t set up those kicks, he could leave himself open to being countered and Osbourne is explosive with his hands. Osbourne slows down later in fights and if Adashev can survive the first round, he has a good chance to outland his way to another low-volume decision win, especially if he can compromise Osbourne’s base early in the fight. Osbourne’s best shot at winning will be to land another first round finish, but he will also have the wrestling advantage if he chooses to use it. We’re leaning that Adashev chops away at Osbourne’s lead leg early and then outlasts him in cardio to win a close decision, but betting that will require you to hold your breath for the first five minutes and it makes sense to hedge with Osbourne’s R1 line.
Our favorite bet here is “Adashev R3 or Decision” at +280.
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DFS Implications:
Osbourne hadn’t been out of the first round in eight straight fights leading up to his recent decision win, however he’s yet to land a finish since dropping down to 125 lb for his last two fights (1-1). While he has a wrestling background, he didn’t even attempt a takedown in his first three UFC fights, before going 1 for 7 on his attempts in his last match. He’s generally been content with looking for early knockouts and faded down the stretch of his last match. His only finish so far in the UFC came against a fragile Jerome Rivera, who went 0-4 with three early losses with the organization. Osbourne also had a really padded record prior to joining the UFC and only two of his seven pre-UFC finishes came against opponents with winning records. So while he has quick, explosive hands, he still needs to prove that he can finish UFC caliber fighters at his new weight class. Osbourne scored just 69 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, and unless he can be more effective with his wrestling, which he’s yet to show us, he remains a R1 or bust play in DFS, who will be over owned relative to his chances of getting the first round finish. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Adashev finally found his rhythm in his last fight as he methodically chipped away at the lead leg of Ryan Benoit. He looked far more patient than in his previous matchup, which is a bad sign for his future DFS production. He scored just 63 points in a low-volume decision win, after scoring a head scratching 11 points in his previous decision loss. He looked content with riding out a decision win the last time we saw him and appears far more focussed on winning than landing finishes. Working in his favor in this next matchup, Osbourne has been finished in the first round in his last three losses, however two of those ended in submissions and Adashev is a one-dimensional kickboxer. The only fighter to ever knock Osbourne out was Manel Kape, which Adashev is not. The best Adashev has going for him in tournaments is that he’ll be low owned, but it’s hard to see him ending up in tournament winning lineups without a finish. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Karine Silva
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut following a R2 submission win on DWCS, Silva has finished five straight opponents in under a round and a half. Three of her last four wins have come by submission, with the one exception being a 2020 R1 TKO where she snapped her opponents arm in an armbar but there was never a tap so it went down as a TKO when the ref eventually stopped the fight due to the injury. Her only other KO/TKO in the last seven years was in 2019.
In her recent DWCS win, Silva came out firing as she offered a front chin kick opposed to a glove touch to start the match. She continued to fire out kicks until one of them was caught a minute in and her opponent, Qihui Yan, used it to take her down. Silva spent the next four minutes on her back as she looked for defensive submissions opposed to working her way back to her feet. Silva looked for a takedown of her own early in round two but was unable to complete it and looked to be slowing down. However, as Yan picked Silva up and slammed her, Silva was able to wrap up a guillotine and quickly force a tap off her back.
Now 14-4 as a pro, all 14 of her career wins have come in the first two rounds and she enters the UFC with a 100% finishing rate in her victories, including nine KOs and five submissions. Five of her nine KO/TKO wins came in her first six pro fights and the majority of her recent wins have ended in submissions. She’s been finished in three of her four career losses, with one KO and two submissions, and lost the only decision she’s ever been to. She’s 0-2 in fights that have made it to the third round, although 16 of her last 17 fights haven’t required the third round. She was knocked out in the third round of her 2013 pro debut and then a year later was submitted in the first round by UFC fighter Maryna Moroz. The only time she’s been finished since 2014 was in a 2017 R1 kneebar, which she followed up with a decision loss in her lone trip to the judges. Silva turned pro in 2013 when she was just 19 years old and fought anywhere from 115 lb to 135 lb early on. However, she hasn’t fought down at 115 lb since 2015, but she has been going back and forth between 135 lb and 125 lb where she last competed and will be making her debut.
Overall, Silva is an aggressive fighter who’s constantly looking for finishes through a variety of submission attempts. She’s a dangerous submission threat from all positions, with very flexible hips that allow her to throw up a variety of submissions off her back. Her biggest concern is her cardio, and she looked to be slowing down in her last fight before she finished the fight with a guillotine submission. She’s also never won a fight that lasted longer than two rounds, and we often see these explosive finishers fade later in fights.
Poliana Botelho
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Looking to bounce back from a pair of decision losses, Botelho has dropped three of her last four fights and is now 13 months removed from a low-volume split-decision loss to Luana Carolina. Botelho’s only win since 2018 was a 2019 decision victory over Lauren Mueller, who was in the midst of a four fight skid.
In her last fight, Botelho was able to land a takedown midway through round one and spend the remainder of the round in top position to take an early lead. However, then the two fighters exchanged control along the fence for almost all of round two. Carolina was able to end up on top after a failed Botelho takedown attempt in round three, which allowed her to tack on another three and a half minutes of control time and win the fight. Botelho finished ahead 34-25 in significant strikes in the slow paced snoozer, while Carolina led 100-87 in total strikes and 5:28-4:39 in control time. Botelho went 1 for 4 on her takedown attempts, while Carolina never attempted a takedown.
Now 8-4 as a pro, Botelho has six wins by KO, and two decisions. She’s never submitted anybody or been knocked out, but she has been submitted once herself and has lost three of the five decisions she’s been to. Five of her six KO wins came in her first six pro fights before she joined the UFC and her only finish since 2015 came in a 2018 R1 TKO via body kick against Syuri Kondo, who went 1-3 in the UFC. Her other two UFC wins both went the distance against similarly suspect competition in Pearl Gonzalez, who went 0-2 in the UFC and was cut following the loss to Botelho, and Lauren Mueller, who went 1-3 in the UFC. So her three UFC wins have come against opponents who combined to go 2-8 in the UFC and have all since been cut. Botelho started her career at 125 lb, but dropped down to 115 lb when she joined the UFC in 2017. After going 2-1 at 115 lb, she moved back up to 125 lb in 2019 where she’s since gone 1-2.0
Overall, Botelho will occasionally mix in takedowns but isn’t much of a grappler and relies on her striking to win fights. While she has decent power, she averages just 2.83 SSL/min and has never landed more than 67 significant strikes in a match. While Botelho officially has an 80% career takedown defense, that number is largely skewed by Pearl Gonalez going 0 for 15 on her attempts against Botelho. In her five fights since, Botelho has been taken down five times on 10 attempts, with a far less impressive 50% defense over that stretch.
Fight Prediction:
Botelho will have a 3” height advantage, but both fighters share a 67” reach.
Botelho has consistently struggled when she’s faced grapplers and now gets another grappler in this matchup, which isn’t a great sign for chances. With that said, Botelho is a veteran with six UFC fights under her belt and Silva will have to deal with both the Octagon jitters and potential cardio concerns down the stretch. Botelho has only been submitted once in her career, and Gillian Robertson was unable to get her out of there with three rounds to work, so relying on a UFC newcomer to land an early submission is a crapshoot. If Botelho can survive the first round and a half, there’s a good chance Silva will slow down and Botelho can take over late, keeping the fight standing where she wants it, and either land a late knockout or more likely go on to win a close decision. While Silva has a decent shot at landing an early submission, we like Botelho’s chances to survive and win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Silva R1 or R2 Submission” at +750.
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DFS Implications:
Botelho is a decent striker but struggles against grapplers so this sets up as a tougher matchup for her on paper. Working in her favor, Silva is making her UFC debut and comes in with cardio concerns, making this a higher variance spot, with the potential for Botelho to take over late and either land a knockout or win a decision. Botelho doesn’t land enough striking volume to score well in a pure striking decision as she averages just 2.83 SSL/min, but there’s always a chance she tacks on a chunk of control time as we’ve seen her do at times in the past. More likely, she’ll need to land a knockout to put up a usable score, but at her mid range price tag it’s not impossible that she could serve as a value play even in a decision if we don’t see many underdogs win on the slate. The odds imply she has a 48% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Silva is an interesting prospect when it comes to DFS, as she has a grappling heavy style and a 100% finishing rate, all in the first two rounds. However, she does have some areas of concern. The biggest of those is her cardio as she was already starting to slow down early in the second round of her last fight, and she’s never won a fight that made it to the third round (0-2). She’s also so comfortable with her jiu-jitsu that she’ll work off her back for extended periods of time, which is far from ideal for DFS scoring if it doesn’t end in a finish. We often see fighters struggle in their debuts, but this does set up as a favorable stylistic matchup for Silva, as Botelho has struggled against grapplers in the past. Silva has a decent chance to land an early submission, and if her cardio has improved since we last saw her then she also theoretically has the potential to win a grappling heavy decision. As the cheapest favorite on the slate, that would likely score enough for her to be useful, just keep in mind she’s never won a decision in her career. The odds imply she has a 52% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Michael Trizano
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Hakeem Dawodu, Trizano has lost two of his last three fights and easily could be on a three fight skid if a close decision win over Ludovit Klein hadn’t gone his way. His first two UFC wins both ended in split-decision victories, so he’s fortunate to even have a winning record in the UFC as all three of his victories have been close. Trizano got his shot in the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter, which he ended up winning in a low-volume split-decision.
In his last fight, Dawodu put on a striking clinic against Trizano, lapping him in striking as he finished ahead 141-70 in significant strikes and 189-94 in total strikes, while also leading 3:46-0:33 in control time. Trizano was able to land the only takedown he attempted, but he wasn’t able to do anything with it. Also, it occurred in the third round and it was too little, too late.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Trizano has two wins by KO, two by submission, and five decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once and has one decision loss. Ten of his 11 career fights have made it out of the first round, with the one exception being a 2017 R1 KO in his third pro appearance. Four of his five UFC matches have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2019 R2 submission loss to Grant Dawson. Trizano took two years off following that loss as he dealt with a variety of injuries, including two knee injuries and an ankle injury. Trizano has gone back and forth between 145 lb and 155 lb throughout his career, but his last three fights have all been down at 145 lb.
Overall, Trizano isn’t a very impressive fighter and doesn’t really excel at anything. His background is in kickboxing and he trains out of Tiger Schulmann in New York, but he hasn’t been a very impressive striker. He only averages 3.54 SSL/min, and has only topped 56 significant strikes landed in one of his five UFC fights, which is when he landed 70 in his last match, but was still outstruck at a two to one rate. He’s only laned two takedowns on three attempts in the UFC, and has only attempted one in his last three fights.
Lucas Almeida
1st UFC Fight (0-0)After losing a decision on DWCS in September 2021, Almeida returned to Brazil and took another match less than three weeks later with the Jungle Fight promotion. He finished his opponent with a guillotine submission 127 seconds into the first round, which was enough for the UFC to give him a shot.
In his previous DWCS fight, Almeida came out of the gates firing, landing 52 significant strikes in the first round alone. However, he was unable to get his opponent out of there and slowed down in the later rounds, landing just 21 and 23 significant strikes in rounds two and three respectively. He got taken down early in round two and looked pretty helpless off his back, which appears to be his biggest area of weakness. In fairness to Almeida, he was coming off nearly a two year layoff for that September 2021 fight, after not competing since November 2019 before that, which likely didn’t help his cardio in the later rounds.
Now 13-1 as a pro, Almeida has eight wins by KO and five by submission. His lone career loss is also the only time he’s required the judges, which occurred on DWCS. He has nine first round wins, two in round two, one in round three, and another in round five. However, while 11 of his 14 pro fights have ended in the first two rounds, three of his last four have made it to round three. He’s fought anywhere from 145 lb to 170 lb in the past, but has mostly been fighting at 155 lb since 2017. He’ll now be dropping back down to 145 lb for his UFC debut, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Overall, Almeida relies almost entirely on his striking, but does have a handful of submission wins on his record, including a guillotine finish in his last fight. He holds black belts in kickboxing and Muay Thai and aggressively hunts for finishes, especially in the first round of fights. He has fight-ending intentions with every punch he throws, but he can be a bit wild at times and doesn’t vary up his strikes much, which hurts his accuracy and makes him somewhat predictable. His takedown defense looks pretty suspect and his aggressive style can result in him walking into double legs, and we expect opponents at the UFC level to capitalize on this and make him work off his back.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’11” with a 71” reach.
In addition to being the same size and previously fighting at 155 lb, these two fighters are similar stylistically as they both have kickboxing backgrounds and don’t offer much on the mat. Almeida is the more aggressive fighter who’s constantly pushing for finishes, while Trizano has appeared content with grinding out close decisions. Trizano is the more technical fighter, while Almeida is looking to turn fights into brawls, which is a much tougher pace to sustain and we’ve seen Almeida slow down later in fights. Neither guy has ever been knocked out, so they’ve both been durable up to this point in their careers, but Almeida’s best shot at winning will be to land an early knockout. We expect to see Almeida come out swinging as he looks to make his mark in the UFC, but as long as Trizano can weather the initial storm he should be able to outstrike Almeida in the later rounds to come back and win a close decision. While it would make all the sense in the world for Trizano to incorporate more wrestling, he’s not a fighter you can rely on to make smart decisions. That’s not to say he won’t look to get the fight to the ground at some point, we just can’t count on him making smart decisions. Nevertheless, we like Almeida to start strong, likely win the first round, but then fade in round two and for Trizano to win a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Trizano Decision” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
Trizano is as gross as it gets in DFS. He’s never topped 66 DraftKings points in five UFC appearances and has averaged just 63 points in his three wins, which all went the distance. Now he’s priced near the top of the heap on DraftKings at $9,100, so it’s hard to see many people clicking his name, and he should come in low owned. He’ll also be facing an uptempo striker who’s making his UFC debut and moving down a weight class, so overall this is a higher variance spot, which does keep Trizano in play despite his putrid scoring history. Unless Trizano completely changes up his approach and turns into a grappler, it’s still hard to see him returning value without a finish. Working against him, Almeida has never been finished before and only has one career loss. While there’s a good chance Trizano sets a new career high in DFS scoring with a win here, there’s still a long way to go between beating his previous career best and actually ending up in tournament winning lineups. It’s safe to treat him as a KO or bust play high variance leverage play. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Almeida is a one-dimensional brawler who doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling despite coming off a guillotine submission win. He comes out ultra aggressive in the first round and has a 100% finishing rate, but lacks variety in his attacks and mostly relies on overwhelming his opponents with haymakers. He’ll need to round out his game if he wants to last long in the UFC and looks vulnerable to being taken down and controlled on his back. With all that said, he has heavy hands and the clear ability to knock opponents out when he connects, he’s just pretty wild with his punches. He’ll now be moving down a weight class as he makes his UFC debut, which adds some uncertainty into the mix. That makes both sides of this matchup somewhat interesting in tournaments, but considering neither one of these two have ever been knocked out, it still most likely ends in a decision, and the oddsmakers agree. Almeida lost the only decision he’s ever been to when he went on DWCS, but he would have scored 74 DraftKings points and 78 points on FanDuel had it gone his way. Even at his cheap price tag, that’s generally still not enough to end up in tournament winning lineups, and with no grappling to boost his scoring he appears reliant on landing a finish to score well. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Movsar Evloev
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Evloev had been scheduled to face Ilia Topuria back in January, but was forced to withdraw after he tested positive for COVID. It’s now been almost exactly a year since he won a grappling-heavy decision over a really tough kickboxer in Hakeem Dawodu to maintain his undefeated record. Prior to that win, Evloev defeated a series of grapplers and has shown he can adjust his approach based on his opponent.
In his last fight, Evloev was able to take Dawodu down 9 times on 13 attempts and control him on the mat for the vast majority of the first two rounds. Dawodu was finally able to remain on his feet for the majority of the third round and appeared to have Evloev hurt at one point. However, Evloev was able to take him down to close out the final minute of the fight and secure the decision win. Dawodu came into that fight with a solid 85% takedown defense, which just made the performance all that more impressive. Evloev finished ahead in significant strikes 42-39 and in total strikes 193-60, with nearly nine minutes of control time.
Now 15-0 as a pro and 5-0 in the UFC, all five of Evloev’s UFC wins have gone the distance, and he’s still searching for his first finish in the UFC. Prior to joining the UFC, 7 of his 10 wins had come early, although he only has two career first round finishes and his other five early wins occurred in the later rounds. Evloev fought mostly at 135 lb before joining the UFC, but did have a few fights at 140 lb and 145 lb as well. Unlike many fighters who try to move down a weight class after joining the UFC, Evloev moved up to 145 lb and never looked back.
Overall, Evloev is a really solid Russian wrestler and a pretty good striker as well. He’s shown an uncanny ability to survive locked in chokes against multiple opponents and is a Master of Sport in Greco-Roman wrestling. The biggest knock on him is that he doesn’t really push for finishes and seems content with grinding out decisions. Now he’ll face an opponent who’s never been finished in his career.
Dan Ige
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Looking to bounce back from the first losing streak of his career, Ige has now dropped two straight and three of his last four. The first two of those losses came in five-round decisions against Calvin Kattar and The Korean Zombie, while the most recent was a three-round decision against Josh Emmett. So overall, Ige has been going up against really tough competition and has still never been finished in his career. Ige got taken down three times on five attempts against The Korean Zombie, who hadn’t landed a takedown in nine years going into that fight. However, just prior to that, Ige knocked out Gavin Tucker in just 22 seconds. After losing a decision to Julio Arce in his 2018 UFC debut, Ige rattled off six straight wins, with four of those going the distance. His two finishes over that stretch came against Mike Santiago, who was cut following the loss and has lost five of his last six fights, and Danny Henry, who has been finished in the first round in his only two fights since 2018. So the only time Ige has finished a decent opponent in the UFC was when he knocked out Tucker.
In his last fight, Ige got dropped by Josh Emmett less than a minute into the first round, but was able to quickly recover. All three rounds were close and the live odds had actually swelled to -295 in Ige’s favor early in the third round. Ige finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 70-60 and in total strikes 73-62, while also leading in takedowns 1-0, but all three judges ruled it in Emmett’s favor, including a 30-27 scorecard from Sal D'amato.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Ige has four wins by KO, five by submission, and six decisions. All five of his losses have gone the distance and he’s never been put away. Six of Ige’s nine early wins have come in the first round and all three of his UFC finishes have occurred in the opening 77 seconds of fights, with two ending in 50 seconds or less. His other eight UFC fights all went the distance (4-4), with two of those wins ending in split decisions. All four of his career KO wins have come in round one, while three of his five submission victories have ended in the later rounds.
Overall, Ige is a durable fighter who’s shown the ability to recover from early adversity. Despite being a BJJ black belt and Judo brown belt, as well as a college wrestler, he’s struggled with both his takedown accuracy (25%) and defense (55%). The only time Ige has won a UFC fight without landing at least one takedown was when he knocked out Tucker 22 seconds into the first round. Ige has been taken down eight times on 19 attempts (42.1%) in his 11 UFC fights, and was also grounded four times on eight attempts on DWCS in 2017. Six of Ige’s last 12 opponents have attempted at least one takedown against him, and the only fighter to fail to land one was Jordan Griffin, who finished his UFC career 1-4 with a 35% takedown accuracy. The other three opponents to attempt multiple takedowns against Ige all landed at least three takedowns.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Evloev will have a 1” reach advantage.
Evloev is a smart fighter and after seeing the wrestling success that The Korean Zombie had against Ige it would be shocking if Evloev didn’t come in with a very wrestling heavy game plan—especially after seeing Ige trade blows with Josh Emmett for three rounds. While Ige is entirely capable of winning the striking battle in this matchup, we don’t see him out wrestling Evloev. That will likely leave Ige reliant on landing a quick knockout before Evloev can get the fight to the mat. Obviously every round starts on the feet, but Ige has yet to ever knock anybody out beyond the first round. For Ige to win a decision, Evloev would need to abandon his wrestling for extended periods of time, which is unlikely but always possible. We fully expect Evloev to grind out a grappling-heavy decision, but Ige is the more explosive puncher and if anyone is going to surprise us with an early finish it would most likely be him.
Our favorite bet here is “Ige R1 KO” at +2500.
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DFS Implications:
Evloev is coming off a career performance where he landed nine takedowns, nearly doubling his previous career high of five that he set in his 2019 UFC debut. Even more impressive, that came against a tough opponent who entered with an 85% takedown defense. Now Evloev will go against the 55% takedown defense of Ige, and it would be surprising if he didn’t come in with another grappling heavy approach. That recent takedown explosion was good for 138 points on DraftKings and 109 points on FanDuel, showing that Evloev can score well on both sites, but is a better play on DraftKings. Prior to that, Evloev had failed to top 99 FanDuel points in his first four UFC wins and had only scored above 92 DraftKings points once. He’s yet to land a finish in five UFC outings, and has been entirely reliant on executing dominating grappling performances to score well. He’s now facing a UFC veteran in Dan Ige, who’s never been finished in his career, so this looks like another spot where Evloev will need to rely entirely on his wrestling to score well. While Ige is a BJJ black belt, he’s struggled on the mat and has only landed one submission in the UFC, which came via rear-naked choke. While we can’t rely on Evloev setting career marks every time he steps inside the Octagon, he did finally show us the scoring ceiling we’d been waiting on. Whether or not he can do that in consecutive fights is a different story. The odds imply he has a 77% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in the first round.
Ige has landed three finishes in the UFC in the opening 77 seconds of fights that have averaged 122 DraftKings points, but has seen his other eight UFC fights end in decisions (4-4), where he averaged 77 points in his four decision victories. He’s shown a decent scoring floor in decisions when he can land a knockdown or multiple takedowns, but lacks the striking volume to return value otherwise. Now he’ll face a really tough Russian wrestler who’s never been defeated or knocked down, and Ige is likely reliant on landing a first round knockout to win/score well. While facing stiff competition is nothing new for Ige, this is another really tough matchup and he looks like nothing more than a R1 KO or bust play. The odds imply he has a 23% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #1
Alexander Volkov
13th UFC Fight (8-4)Volkov is coming off a first round submission loss to Tom Aspinall and is now just 4-4 in his last eight fights. He split a pair of decisions prior to getting submitted by Aspinall, losing a five-round decision to Ciryl Gane and then defeating Marcin Tybura in a three-round fight.
In his last fight, Volkov got taken down 45 seconds into the first round by Tom Aspinall. After a minute and a half of taking damage on his back, Volkov was able to return to his feet, but Aspinall took him down again a minute later. It didn’t take long for Aspinall to lock up a straight armbar and force a tap at that point. Aspinall controlled all aspects of the fight and finished ahead in significant strikes 29-13 and in total strikes 35-13, while landing both of his takedown attempts with nearly two minutes of control time. That was Volkov’s first UFC fight to end in round one after his first 11 UFC fights all saw the second round.
Now 34-10 as a pro, Volkov has 22 wins by KO, three by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has five decision losses. Eleven of Volkov’s 12 UFC fights have made it to the second round, with nine seeing round three, and six going the distance. He’s seen the championship rounds three times since joining the organization, with two of those ending in five-round decision losses. Volkov has four knockouts in the UFC, and they all came in the middle rounds against aging fighters towards the end of their careers. He’s gone 4-2 in UFC decisions and has been finished twice since joining the organization, with a 2018 R3 KO loss to Derrick Lewis and then the recent first round submission loss to Aspinall. The only other time he’s been knocked out in 44 pro fights was in the first round of a 2013 fight against the former Bellator Heavyweight champ Vitaly Minakov.
Overall, Volkov is essentially a one-dimensional striker who has very little interest in going to the mat, despite being a BJJ brown belt and having three submission wins on his record (2010, 2014 & 2016). He hasn’t landed a takedown in his last five fights and has just seven in his 12 UFC matches, with five of those coming in his first four UFC fights. After getting taken down 14 times by Curtis Blaydes in 2020, Volkov bulked up from 247 lb to 265 lb to try to improve his wrestling base, which improved his takedown defense considerably as he stopped all 22 of the takedowns attempted against him in his next four fights, after getting taken down 14 times on 25 attempts by Curtis Blaydes and a total of 19 times on 54 attempts from his first seven UFC opponents combined. However, he then cut back down to 253 lb for his last fight and got taken down twice and submitted in less than a round. Fortunately for him, he shouldn’t have to worry about dealing with any takedown attempts in this next matchup.
This will be the 11th five-round fight of Volkov’s career and 7th in the UFC, and here’s how they’ve gone:
UFC:
2022 R1 SUB L vs. Tom Aspinall
2021 R5 DEC L vs. Ciryl Gane
2021 R2 KO W vs. Alistair Overeem
2020 R5 DEC L vs. Curtis Blaydes
2018 R4 KO W vs. Fabrício Werdum
2017 R3 KO W vs. Stefan Struve
Pre-UFC:
2016 R1 KO W vs. Attila Vegh
2016 R3 SUB W vs. Denis Smoldarev
2013 R1 KO L vs. Vitaly Minakov
2012 R5 DEC W vs. Richard Hale
He’s 6-4 in five-round fights in his career, and 3-3 in the UFC, however, he’s lost three of his last four. His last five wins in five-round fights all came early, while he’s gone just 1-2 in five-round decisions, with his lone win coming in 2012 in what was the first five-round fight of his career.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Curtis Blaydes, Rozenstruik has alternated losses and wins for six straight fights. He had been scheduled to face Marcin Tybura back in February, but the fight was rescheduled for April. However, then Tybura dropped out in the day leading up to the fight and Rozenstruik was put back on the shelf. While two of Rozenstruik’s last three fights have gone the distance, his previous seven fights all ended in knockouts (6-1), including four that ended in under 30 seconds (3-1). While that shows how dangerous Rozenstruik can be, we’ve also seen him involved in a painfully slow paced five-round decision loss to Ciryl Gane, where Rozenstruik averaged an anemic 1.68 significant strikes per minute as he was outlanded 102-42 by Gane, who easily won a unanimous 50-45 decision. Rozenstruik refused to take many risks in the match, even when it was clear that he needed a finish late in the agonizingly painful to watch snoozer.
In his last fight, Blaydes was able to take Rozenstruik down once in each of the three rounds and finished with three takedowns on six attempts with over six minutes of control time. He landed his first takedown 64 seconds into the match, but Rozenstruik was at least able to return to his feet for the final two minutes of the round. Despite spending three minutes in space, Rozenstruik still landed just six significant strikes in the round, while Blaydes landed 19 in addition to landing the takedown. The later rounds were even slower paced, with Rozenstruik leading 10-8 in significant strikes in round two and Blaydes leading 5-2 in round three. Overall, Blaydes finished ahead 32-18 in significant strikes and 113-46 in total strikes, while leading in takedowns 3-0 and in control time 6:19-0:00. Rozenstruik landed a big flying knee in round two that damaged Blaydes’ right eye, but Blaydes responded by immediately taking him down. Rozenstruik appeared rightfully worried about the wrestling of Blaydes, while Blaydes was weary of the power coming back his way from Rozenstruik. Both guys fought pretty tentatively because of that, which resulted in periods of inaction on the feet. Blaydes controlled Rozenstruik on the mat for over three minutes in the final round, as Blaydes’ eye continued to swell. Things would have gotten very interesting with the doctor if the fight had been scheduled to go five rounds as it was essentially swollen shut by the end of the third round.
Now 12-3 as a pro, 11 of Rozenstruik’s 12 career wins have come by KO, with the one exception being a 2018 split decision, a year before he joined the UFC. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 20 second R1 KO in a 2020 fight against Francis Ngannou. Both of his other two career losses ended in decisions, which both occurred in his last three matches. While two of his three UFC losses went the distance, all six of his UFC wins have ended in knockouts, including three in round one, two in round two, and one in round five. All five of his knockout victories prior to joining the UFC came in round one, so overall 73% (8) of his finishes have come in round one, 18% (2) have ended in round two and 9% (1) finished in round five.
Overall, Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional Surinamese kickboxer. He has zero desire to go to the mat and has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. He does have a solid 75% takedown defense, although only four opponents have actually tried to take him down and combined to land 9 takedowns on 36 attempts (25%), with each of those opponents getting him down at least twice on six or more attempts. He’s always a threat to finish opponents with a single blow, but doesn’t land much striking volume and only averages 2.80 SSL/min.
This will be Rozenstruik’s 4th five-round fight in the UFC and 5th of his career. The first time he was scheduled to go five rounds was in his last fight before joining the UFC and he knocked his opponent out in just 10 seconds. Then after knocking out his first three UFC opponents, he took on Alistair Overeem in a 2019 five-round match. Overeem won the first three rounds on all three judges’ scorecards and just needed to survive to win a decision, but Rozenstruik landed a lip-splitting last second KO with four seconds left in the 5th round to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Rozenstruik finished that fight ahead in significant strikes 89-74 and in total strikes 109-101, but was taken down twice and controlled for eight and a half minutes. Despite the control time, that’s still more than twice as many significant strikes than Rozenstruik has landed in any other UFC fight, and he’s landed a combined 151 significant strikes in his other eight UFC fights. Following that win, Rozenstruik split a pair of three-round fights before taking on Ciryl Gane in a five-round staring contest, where Rozenstruik only landed 42 significant strikes in 25 minutes (1.68 SSL/min) on his way to a unanimous 50-45 decision loss. Unphased, the UFC immediately put him right back in another five-round matchup, this time against an easier opponent in Augusto Sakai, and Rozenstruik landed a knockout with just a second left in the first round and finished ahead just 16-3 in significant strikes. So overall, Rozenstruik is 3-1 in five-round fights in his career and 2-1 in the UFC. All of those wins have come by KO, while his loss ended in a decision. He was seconds away from losing another five-round decision before he landed a late hail mary KO against Overeem.
Fight Prediction:
Volkov will have a 5” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Both of these fighters are one-dimensional strikers so it makes sense why the UFC decided to put this fight together. We’ve seen both of them lose decisions to Curtis Blaydes and Ciryl Gane fairly recently, and they’ve also each knocked out Alistair Overeem. They’ve each proven themselves to be fairly durable, with Rozenstruik only having one early loss on his record, which came against the champ in Francis Ngannou, and Volkov only getting finished twice in his last 21 pro fights and having only been knocked out twice in 44 pro fights. Rozenstruik is the more powerful of the two, but Volkov is the more active striker. In a fight we expect to remain entirely on the feet, Volkov should land more strikes and is far more likely to get his hand raised if this goes the distance. If it does end early, look for it to finish with a Rozenstruik KO, most likely in the first two rounds. While we wouldn’t be surprised to see Rozenstruik land a knockout with 25 minutes to work, we like Volkov to rely on his reach advantage to outland his way to a victory in a lower volume decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Volkov Decision” at +260.
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DFS Implications:
Despite landing knockouts in four of his eight UFC wins, Volkov has generally struggled to put up big scores in DFS. He’s only topped the century mark twice on DraftKings and has only scored more than 102 once, which was back in 2017. He’s won all four of the three-round decisions he’s been to in the UFC, but averaged just 70 DraftKings points and 71 points on FanDuel in those victories. If we extend the pace he sets in those three-round fights over the course of five rounds, he would have averaged 97 DraftKings points and 105 points on FanDuel, with really just one usable score on each site. He’s lost both of the five-round decisions he’s been to, scoring just 46 and 38 points in those two defeats, although in the latter of those scores he spent most of the fight on his back. Rozenstruik averages just 3.07 SSA/min and has only absorbed more than 32 significant strikes in a fight twice in his career, which unsurprisingly occurred in his two fights to make it to the 5th round—a 2021 R5 DEC loss to Curly Gane where he Rozenstruik absorbed a career most 102 significant strikes and a 2019 R5 KO win against Alistair Overeem who landed 74 significant strikes. For Volkov to score 100 DraftKings points in a five-round decision off striking alone, he would need to land 175 SS. That striking number drops down to 133 on FanDuel, where significant strikes are more heavily weighted. We don’t expect Volkov to be looking to grapple any, and even if he is looking to surprise us, Rozenstruik has a solid 75% takedown defense. While Ciryl Gane landed more significant strikes than anybody else ever has against Rozenstruik, while also tacking on two takedowns with four and a half minutes of control time, he still scored just 94 DraftKings points and 93 points on FanDuel in the five-round decision win. Without the takedowns, you’re looking at scores in the low 80’s. The only fighter that’s ever scored more than Gane against Rozenstruik is Francis Ngannou, who handed Rozenstruik the only early loss of his career in a 20 seconds first round knockout. Long story short, it’s really hard to get excited about Volkov’s scoring potential here, and he likely needs a first round knockout to return value. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
As your prototypical KO or bust fighter, all six of Rozenstruik’s UFC wins have come by knockout, with three ending in round one, two in round two, and one in round five. He has averaged 107 DraftKings points in those finishes, with his lowest score (90) coming in his fifth round KO. He’s scored at least 94 points in each of the other five knockouts and two of the three first round knockouts occurred in under a minute and each scored 127 points. However, he barely lands any striking volume (2.80 SSL/min) and doesn’t know how to spell takedown, so he’s entirely reliant on knockouts to score well. He scored “just” 97 and 94 DraftKings points in his two second round knockouts, although at his lower price tag this week that could still be enough for him to sneak into tournament winning lineups depending on what the other dogs do. Rozenstruik amazingly scored just 18 DraftKings points in a five-round decision loss to Ciryl Gane, and would have theoretically totaled just 70 points had he won a five-round decision over Alistair Overeem instead of knocking him out in the closing seconds of a fight he was losing on the scorecards. It’s hard to see Rozenstruik being active enough to win a decision, and it’s even harder to see him scoring well even if he does somehow get his hand raised. While Rozenstruik is always a threat to land a knockout, he’s habitually overowned in DFS relative to his chances of really scoring well. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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