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Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Miranda Maverick
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Maverick is coming off a predictable third round submission win over Priscila “The Grappler’s Wet Dream” Cachoeira. Maverick was unsurprisingly able to take Cachoeira down in every round and control her before eventually finding a finish late in the fight. Prior to that, Maverick called out Jasmine Jasudavicius and got all she could handle in a unanimous decision loss to the fellow wrestler. Prior to that loss, Maverick won a decision win over a highly suspect one-dimensional striker in Shanna Young who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released. That came just after Maverick landed a second round submission against another striker in Sabina Mazo, who was also then released. Leading up to those wins, Maverick lost a pair of decisions to Maycee Barber and Erin Blanchfield, after winning a grappling-heavy decision over Gillian Robertson and landing a post R1 TKO in her UFC debut against a terrible Liana Jojua, who has also since been released. So three of Maverick’s five UFC wins were against opponents who are no longer on the roster, another was against Gillian Robertson, who has since dropped down from 125 lb to 115 lb, and the most recent was against the worst grappler in the division (world?) in Priscila Cachoeira.
Now 12-5 as a pro, Maverick has one TKO victory, seven submissions, and four decision wins. Her lone TKO win came from a doctor stoppage following the first round in her 2020 UFC debut. After the first four submission wins of her career all ended in the first round, her last three occurred in the later rounds. She’s never been finished, with all five of her losses going the distance. Five of her last seven fights ended with the judges (2-3), while she also has two late round submission wins over that stretch. Maverick started her pro career at 115 lb before moving up to 125 lb in her third pro fight.
Overall, Maverick comes from a wrestling background and is generally looking to rely on that to win fights. While her striking has improved somewhat over the years, she’s just 1-2 in UFC fights where she failed to land a takedown, with the one win coming against a one-dimensional armbar specialist in her 2020 UFC debut. Maverick has struggled when facing other wrestlers, showing that her grappling is far from elite, but she is a BJJ brown belt. We haven’t seen the improvements from her that you’d like to see in a serious prospect. She recently took a job with Hershey as a statistician, and also started a side business selling pickles, so she’s not even 100% focussed on fighting. She’s shown the ability to capitalize on favorable matchups, but almost every time the UFC tries to give Maverick a step up in competition she struggles. In her eight UFC fights, she landed 16 of her 33 takedowns attempts (48.5% accuracy), while getting taken down 11 times on 19 opponent attempts (42.1% defense). She’s never landed more than 71 significant strikes in a fight and only averages 3.71 SSL/min and 2.62 SSA/min. Maverick trains at Elevation fight team in Colorado, which should benefit her cardio.
Andrea Lee
12th UFC Fight (5-6)Somehow on her second three-fight losing streak in the UFC, Lee is just 2-6 in her last eight fights, with both of those wins ending in second round finishes and all six of those losses going the distance. The judges absolutely hate her and three of those six decisions were split. She got dominated on the feet in her last decision loss against Natalia Silva, who had a massive grappling advantage but never even attempted a takedown. Prior to that, Lee lost a controversial split-decision to Mayceee Barber, where Lee landed all five of her takedown attempts with over five minutes of control time, although didn’t do a ton with them. Barber finished slightly ahead in striking, while landing two takedowns of her own, and two of the three judges thought that was enough. Ten months prior to that, Lee lost a decision to Viviane Araujo. Lee started strong in that fight by landing an early knockdown, but then got smothered on the mat for the rest of that fight. The last time Lee came out victorious was in 2021 when Cynthia Calvillo straight up quit after the second round, telling her corner she didn’t want to fight anymore. Lee’s only other win in her last eight outings came just before that, when she locked up a second round submission against Antonina Shevchenko, who has consistently struggled on the mat. That came after Lee started her UFC career off in 2018 with three straight decision wins, followed by three straight decision losses. Nine of her 11 UFC fights went the distance.
Now 13-8 as a pro, Lee has three wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. The only time she's been finished was in a 2016 R3 rear-naked choke in her 6th pro fight, prior to joining the UFC. Her other seven career losses all went the distance. Only one of her last 20 fights has ended in the first round, and her last 14 have all made it to round two, with 11 of those seeing the third round, and 10 going the distance.
Overall, Lee is a karate black belt and a high-volume striker (5.13 SSL/min), who also holds brown belts in both judo and BJJ. In her 10 UFC fights, she’s landed 19 of her 33 takedown attempts (57.6% accuracy), while she’s been taken down 22 times on 48 opponent attempts (54.2% defense). All nine of the opponents who have tried to take her down have landed at least one of their attempts, with seven of those nine landing multiple takedowns against her. Defensive wrestling continues to be one of her weaknesses and she’s lost the last five fights where she’s been taken down more than once.
Fight Prediction:
Lee will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while Maverick is nine years younger than the 35-year-old Lee.
Lee is the superior striker in this matchup, while Maverick is the better wrestler, so this one’s pretty straight forward. The outcome will hinge on Maverick’s ability to win two rounds on the mat, assuming we don’t see a finish, which we don’t think we will. They only have one early loss between them, which was when Lee got submitted in the third round of a 2016 fight, and neither one of them is all that dangerous. We know the judges hate Lee and she’s lost the last six decisions she’s been to, so she’ll need a convincing win if she wants to get her hand raised. Lee has just a 54% takedown defense and all nine of her opponents who tried to take her down were successful. Lee went just 4-5 in those nine fights and lost six of the last seven fights where she surrendered even a single takedown. We expect Maverick to find some success in getting Lee down, it’s just a matter of how much. We lean towards her landing around two takedowns and this ending in a close split decision that comes down to how much the judges value control. Based on Lee’s track record with the judges, we lean towards Maverick here but this one feels closer to a coin flip than the odds indicate.
Our favorite bet here is “Miranda Maverick DEC” at +125.
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DFS Implications:
Maverick is averaging an impressive 108 DraftKings points in her five UFC wins, scoring at least 99 points in all of those. She’s shown the ability to score well with her wrestling even in decisions or late finishes, and she’s also never been finished in her career. That leaves her with a high floor and ceiling combination as faces an opponent in Lee who has just a 54% takedown defense and has been taken down by all nine of her UFC opponents who tried. Lee has lost three straight and is just 2-6 in her last eight outings, and Maverick actually personally reached out to Lee to set this matchup up. Just keep in mind, the last time Maverick personally setup a matchup was against Jasmine Jasudavicius, who torched her. Nevertheless, this looks like a good spot for Maverick to find success on the mat and Lee is 0-6 in her last six decisions. Our one concern is that Maverick’s wins have come in some extremely favorable matchup and Lee is tougher than most of the girls Maverick has beaten. The larger Octagon could also make it easier for Lee to evade Maverick’s takedown attempts and we won’t be at all surprised to see the lowest scoring win of Maverick’s career here. And at her high price tag, she could score 100 points and still get priced out of winning lineups so there are multiple ways she fails in tournaments. With that said, the upside is still there if she can dominate this fight on the mat and her high salary should keep her ownership under control. That’s enough to have some level of exposure to her on DraftKings, although she’s less appealing on FanDuel, despite being cheaper, as she’ll be more reliant on landing a finish over there. The odds imply Maverick has a 64% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Lee landed late/post second round finishes in each of her last two wins, so naturally she scored well in both of those with DraftKings totals of 104 and 116. However, she’s lost three straight decisions now and is just 2-6 in her last eights fights, losing the last six decisions she’s been to. She did win the first three decisions she went to in the UFC, but only averaged 79 DraftKings points in those wins and would likely need to implement a decent amount of wrestling to really score well without a finish. That could be tougher for her here as she faces a wrestler in Maverick, even if we have seen Maverick bested on the mat by superior grapplers in the past. Lee surprisingly landed five takedowns against Maycee Barber, but wasn’t able to do anything with them and still only would have scored 84 DraftKings points even if that split decision had gone her way. Maybe a similar score here would be enough for Lee to serve as a value play, but that would also require most of the other underdogs to fail. To really score well, Lee will likely need to become the first fighter to ever finish Maverick. The odds imply Lee has a 36% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Oban Elliott
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a majority decision win on DWCS, Elliott has gone the distance in four straight fights after his first seven pro fights all ended early. Elliott nearly got knocked out and submitted in the second round of his DWCS fight, and was fortunate that his opponent appeared to gas out going for the finish, allowing Elliott to recover and take over in the third round. One of the judges scored the fight a draw due to a 10-8 second round, while the other two scored it 29-28 for Elliott. Prior to going on DWCS, he spent his entire career with Cage Warriors, after turning pro in 2019.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Elliott has two R1 KO/TKO wins, three submissions, and four decision victories. Both of his knockouts came in his first five pro fights against low-level opponents who entered with records of 0-2 and 2-2. His last two submission wins also both ended in round one, after he landed a second round submission win in his 2019 pro debut. He was knocked out in the later rounds in each of his two losses, with one of those coming against UFC fighter Michal Figlak. Three of Elliott started his career at 155 lb
Overall, Elliott is a decently well rounded fighter but doesn’t stand out as being exceptional anywhere. He’s got okay striking but not a ton of power and generally doesn;t land a ton of volume. His wrestling is alright and he’ll mix in a decent number of takedowns, but often loses positions on the mat. His biggest issue has been his durability and he looks pretty chinny. He fights with a lot of heart, but he also has an over inflated ego. He trains at Jack Shore’s gym in Wales, so he has at least one UFC fighter to work with. He also said he’s still working his job laying railroad, so he’s not 100% committed to training full time at this point.
Val Woodburn
2nd UFC Fight (0-0)Woodburn will be dropping down to 170 lb for the first time in his career after getting knocked out just 38 seconds into his short notice UFC debut against Bo Nickal. Prior to that loss, Woodburn started his career 7-0 on the Florida regional scene with the ragtag Combat Night organization, after turning pro in 2020. His last two wins both went the distance, after he started his career off with five straight knockouts in the first two rounds. He hasn’t finished anybody since 2021 when he landed a first round knockout against a 3-1 opponent in a 195 lb Catchweight match.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Woodburn has five KO/TKO wins and two decision victories. After finishing his first five pro opponents in the first two rounds, his last two fights have both gone the distance. You definitely have to question the level of competition he’s been facing, and his first three finishes came against opponents with one combined pro win. His third most recent win came against an opponent who was born in the 70s, before he faced an opponent stepping in on short notice in his second most recent fight and then a 41 year old journeyman in his last match. Most of his career has been spent at 185 lb, but Woodburn did have one 195 lb Catchweight match and one 205 lb fight, which was when his opponent came in on short notice. Woodburn has spent most of his career at 185 lb, but had one fight all the way up at 205 lb and another 195 lb Catchweight match. Now he’ll be trying to cut down to 170 lb for the first time.
Overall, Woodburn is an incredibly stocky 5’8” fire hydrant of a fighter. He loves to work out of the clinch and he’ll occasionally look for takedowns, but most of his pro fight time has been spent jockeying for position along the cage and looking for knockouts when fights momentarily return to space. He was able to make that work against low level opponents on the Florida regional scene, but we expect him to have a tougher time finding success at the UFC level. To his credit, he seems to have decent power and is heavy from top position on the mat, but he’s going to have trouble finding his range against taller strikers and he’ll never be able to cut enough weight to fight guys his own height. His cardio has been pretty bad, so you have to wonder how it will look after cutting 15 additional pounds. It will be important to monitor him closely on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Elliott will have a 4” height advantage, but Woodburn will have a 2” reach advantage. Elliott is four years younger than the 30-year-old Woodburn.
There are a lot of moving parts in this one, making it a volatile spot to try and predict. Woodburn is attempting to cut down to 170 lb for the first time in his career, and that has the potential to negatively impact both his cardio and durability. That’s concerning since we’ve already seen him gas in the past and he just got knocked out in 38 seconds in his recent UFC debut. He’s notably competed as high as 205 lb in the past, and while he’s really short at just 5’8”, he’s built like a tank. And on the other side of things, we have a debuting fighter in Elliott, who’s looked pretty chinny in the past and has competed at both 155 lb and 170 lb in his career. So despite being much shorter, Woodburn has weighed in 50 lb heavier than Elliott in the past. Woodburn appears to possess the power to knock Elliott out and the takedown defense to keep the fight standing, but he doesn’t seem to have the cardio to keep up with him in a longer fight. It’s hard to know how the weight cut will affect Woodburn, but that uncertainty adds to Elliott’s finishing potential to some extent. However, after fighting to four straight decisions, Eliott hasn’t looked especially dangerous lately, so it’s hard to know how this fight will go. There’s a good chance Elliott can outland his way to a decision win, but we also wouldn’t be that surprised to see either guy knock the other out. Elliott by decision will be our tentative pick, but we’re not especially confident in that.
Our favorite bet here is “Oban Elliott DEC or KO” at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Elliott mixes in a combination of striking and wrestling, but despite landing four takedowns in his recent decision win on DWCS, he only would have scored 84 DraftKings points and 79 points on FanDuel. So despite being decently well rounded, he’s not quite active enough to score well without a finish, and his last four wins all went the distance. He’s also been kind of chinny, with both of his losses ending in knockouts. So it’s hard to trust either his floor or his ceiling and he checks in as the second most expensive fighter on the card. However, there is some inherent volatility in this matchup as Woodburn cuts down from 185 lb to 170 lb for the first time in his career. Woodburn is already a low-level fighter with cardio and durability concerns and cutting the additional weight has the potential to exacerbate both of those. That at least adds to Elliott’s theoretical ceiling, but we’re not very excited about him outside of the matchup. Elliott has competed as low as 155 lb in the past, while Woodburn has fought as heavy as 205 lb and we could see Woodburn overpower Elliott in the clinch at times, which would really put a damper on Elliott’s scoring potential in a decision. Elliott appears to need a well timed finish to return value and there are lots of ways he wins and still gets priced out of the optimal lineup. The odds imply Elliott has a 74% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Woodburn has yet to prove he belongs in the UFC and built up his record beating up bums on the Florida regional scene. He’s built like a fire hydrant and will now be trying to cut down to 170 lb for the first time in his career. We have legitimate concerns with his durability, cardio, and overall talent in general. The only time he ever faced a decent opponent he ended up being the biggest underdog in UFC history and got knocked out in 38 seconds by Bo Nickal. In Woodburn’s defense, he took that fight on just a few days’ notice. Woodburn looks powerful and Elliott has been chinny throughout his career, so at the very least Woodburn has a puncher’s chance to land a knockout. We’ve also seen him work out of the clinch in the past, so it’s not entirely impossible that he could bully his way to an uneventful decision win, although that’s far less likely. It’s probably best to treat him as a volatile KO or bust fighter in not the worst matchup. The odds imply Woodburn has a 26% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Danny Barlow
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Barlow had originally been scheduled to make his debut against Yusaku Kinoshita here, but Kinoshita dropped out and Quinlan was announced as the replacement in early January with six weeks to prepare. Coming off a quick first round knockout win on DWCS, Barlow comes into the UFC with a short but undefeated record. He’s landed three straight first round knockouts and only one of his last six fights made it out of the first round.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Barlow has four first round knockout wins, one first round submission victory, and two decisions. Only three of his opponents came in with winning records and two of those three fighters had three or fewer pro fights.
Overall, Barlow is a 28-year-old striker who only turned pro in October 2021. While he’s very athletic and has good size and length, he’s also still very green in MMA and doesn't offer much in the way of grappling. He’s just a BJJ blue belt and he almost got submitted in the first round of his last decision win against a 1-0 nobody. He does have a sharp left hand that he throws down the middle well from the southpaw stance, but it seems like the UFC is bringing him on too early for his own good and we expect him to struggle against good wrestlers. He stands pretty tall, which will make it tougher for him to defend takedowns. Barlow trains at an unknown gym called Law School MMA in Tennessee and doesn't have any high-level training partners to learn from.
Josh Quinlan
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career, Quinlan lost a decision to the 6’5” Trey Waters, who was making his short notice UFC debut. Quinlan understandably had trouble finding his range in the fight, but did have some moments in the match. He looked to wrestle more, but was only able to land one of his eight takedown attempts and Waters outastruck him 106-50. Prior to that loss, Quinlan landed a first round knockout in his own UFC debut against a glass-jawed Jason Witt. That came after Quinlan landed a 47 second R1 TKO on DWCS in September 2021 against an opponent who had accepted the fight on just three day’s notice. However, the result was overturned to a No Contest and Quinlan was suspended for 9 months after he tested positive for steroids.
Still just 6-1 as a pro plus a NC, Quinlan has four wins by KO/TKO and two submissions. Three of those finishes ended in round one, one came in round two, and two occurred in round three. He also had another R1 KO win that was overturned to a No Contest. He lost the only decision he’s ever been to but he’s never been finished. He hasn’t fought much in the way of competition and his first three wins came against opponents with one combined pro fight. Two of his last three opponents stepped in on short notice and the other was Jason Witt.
Overall, Quinlan throws a decent amount of kicks, which makes sense considering his background is in soccer and not martial arts. He’s looked fairly explosive at times in the past, but was less impressive in his last fight and perhaps his prior explosiveness was aided by his documented steroid use. After failing to attempt a takedown in his DWCS match or his UFC debut, neither of which lasted very long, h e looked to wrestle more in his last fight, but only landed one of his eight takedown attempts (12.5% accuracy). On the other side of things, his opponents got him down twice on five attempts (60% defense). He’s actually a BJJ black belt and has a couple of rear-naked chokes on his record, even if he’s been more reliant on his striking lately. He said he’ll have both his wrestling and BJJ coaches in his corner for this fight, an indicator that he may be looking to utilize his ground game more. Quinlan was born and raised in Kauai, Hawaii, but trains out of Las Vegas.
Fight Prediction:
Barlow will have a 2” height advantage and 7” reach advantage, while being three years younger than Quinlan.
Quinlan has a grappling advantage in this matchup and we expect him to try and exploit it. Barlow is taller, longer, and more athletic, and we just saw Quinlan struggle with the height, length, and athleticism of Trey Waters. So it wouldn’t make much sense for Quinlan to try and win a pure striking battle and if that is his approach he’ll likely get outlanded. While Quinlan hasn’t shown himself to be an amazing wrestler, he is a BJJ black belt and Barlow isa blue belt and has looked bad on the mat. Quinlan will have both his wrestling and his jiu jitsu coaches in his corner which is a good sign for him looking to wrestle. We expect him to find more grappling success here than he did in his last fight and like his chances of either locking up a submission, most likely by rear-naked choke, or outwrestling his way to a decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Josh Quinlan DEC or SUB” at +410.
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DFS Implications:
Barlow kind of reminds us of Jamie Pickett. He’s tall, long, and athletic, but doesn’t throw a ton of volume and is lacking in the wrestling department. Barlow is still very inexperienced and only turned pro in October 2021. He trains at a small, unknown gym in Tennessee and doesn’t have any high-level fighters there to learn from, which may stunt his development. While he does have a dangerous left hand, he needs to evolve the other aspects of his game and he’s looked bad on the mat. His lack of wrestling and striking volume leaves him reliant on landing a well timed knockout to score well in DFS and now he’s facing an opponent who’s never been knocked out. We also expect Quinlan to be looking to wrestle, which will just make it tougher for Barlow to score well. That likely leaves Barlow as a R1 KO or bust play in a less than ideal matchup. The odds imply Barlow has a 64% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Quinlan is coming off a poor performance where he suffered his first career loss in his first ever trip to the judges. He struggled with the size of Trey Waters, but did attempt eight takedowns. Even though he only landed one of those attempts, the simple fact that he was looking to wrestle that much is encouraging for him here as he faces an opponent who has looked bad on the mat. Quinlan is a BJJ black belt and Barlow is a BJJ blue belt who nearly got submitted by a 1-0 fighter in his last decision win back in November 2022. Maybe Barlow has made improvements to his wrestling and grappling over the last year, but if he hasn’t, this could be a prime spot for Quinlan to show off his ground game. That creates the potential for Quinlan to grind out a wrestling-heavy decision or lock up a submission. While he’ll need a finish to score well on FanDuel, a wrestling-heavy decision would be enough for him to be useful on DraftKings at his cheap price tag. Quinlan has also shown knockout power in the past, so he has multiple paths to winning this fight and scoring well. While he was 47% owned in his last fight, we expect that number to come way down after his recent dud and his ownership should remain under control here. The odds imply Quinlan has a 36% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Zhang Mingyang
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Finally making his UFC debut, Zhang had been scheduled to debut early in 2023 against Tyson Pedro but was forced to drop out. Then he was scheduled to face Brendson Ribeiro in December in Shanghai but was forced to drop out when the card got moved to Vegas due to travel complications. The last time Zhang competed was in June 2022 on a Road to UFC card. He wasn’t part of the actual tournament and entered that fight as a massive +450 underdog, but ended up landing a first round knockout against a dubious opponent. That was his ninth straight first round finish and none of his last 13 fights made it out of round one. The last time he saw the second round was in 2018 when he got knocked out in round two. The only other two times he made it out of round one were in a 2017 decision loss and a 2014 second round submission defeat in his pro debut.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Zhang has 10 KO/TKO wins and six submission victories, with all 16 of his wins ended in under five minutes. His last six finishes all ended in knockouts. He’s also been knocked out three times himself and submitted twice, while he lost the only decision he’s ever been to, which was back in 2017. Only four of his 16 victories came against opponents with winning records and he’s been facing an incredibly low level of competition. Prior to his Road to UFC win, he defeated opponents who came in with records of 1-3 and 6-9. He also notably has a R1 KO loss to an incredibly fraudulent Askar Mozharov, who was given a shot in the UFC and got dominated by Alonzo Menifield and finished in the first round. Zhang has spent time both at Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight, but was always undersized at Heavyweight, only tipping the scale at 219 lb and clearly he was just a Light Heavyweight who wasn’t cutting weight in those fights.
Overall, Zhang is a chinese brawler who’s made a career out of beating up low-level opponents on the Chinese regional scene. He’s an all offense type of fighter and doesn’t offer much in the way of striking defense. While he will look for takedowns and has a half dozen submission wins on his record, he’s just a BJJ blue belt and isn’t a great grappler. The fact that he’s 0-3 in fights that made it out of the first round is a big red flag for his cardio, but it’s been six years since he saw round two so all we can do is speculate on his gas tank. Zhang normally trains in Thailand, but has been traveling to different gyms lately and spent some time at Xtreme Couture, so he’s at least making an effort to learn from different coaches and grow as a fighter. We’re getting serious fraud vibes here and we expect Zhang to struggle immensely against legitimate competition at the UFC level.
Brendson Ribeiro
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Ribeiro is coming off a first round knockout win on DWCS where he pulled off the upset as a massive +380 underdog in a back and forth brawl. Just before that, Ribeiro won the Shooto Brazil Light Heavyweight belt with another ground and pound first round TKO finish. His last five fights all ended in first round knockouts, with him winning the last three of those. Prior to landing three straight first round KO/TKO finishes, he was the one getting knocked out in the first round in back-to-back 2022 fights. Just before that, he locked up a pair of second round submission wins and his last eight fights all ended in the first two rounds. Ribeiro has a first round submission win over former UFC fighter Antonio Arroyo on his record, although that was all the way back in 2015.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Ribeiron has nine knockouts and six submission wins. His last six and eight of his nine knockouts occurred in the first round, while his last two submission wins both ended in round two. He also has three first round submissions and one in round three. He’s been knocked out in the first round twice, with both of those coming in 2022 in his last five fights. He also has two submission losses, which occurred in consecutive 2016 fights in the first two rounds. He’s only been to one decision in his career, which he lost by split decision in 2018. That was a controversial fight where it looked like his opponent tapped in round one after Ribeiro locked up a triangle, so Ribeiro let go and stood up thinking he won. His opponent didn’t argue, but the ref did and told them to keep fighting. Ribeiro competed at 185 lb early in career, but has been at 205 lb since 2018. Both of his submission losses occurred while he was still fighting down at 185 lb.
Overall, Ribeiro is a Brazilian fighter who’s decently well rounded. He’s a BJJ brown belt and loves to try and sneak his wiry arms under the necks of his opponents to lock up chokes. He also has no problem throwing down on the feet and has a really long 81” reach. However, he doesn’t really maximize his length and throws a lot of wild looping punches. Ribeiro has a decent amount of experience and has competed in some big organizations like M-1, Future FC, and Shooto Brazil in the past, although he only had one fight with each of those. Ribeiro tends to be a submission over position type fighter and we’ve seen him get reversed far too easily on the mat, and he’s often content with looking for guillotines during grappling exchanges. While he is dangerous throwing up submissions of his back, that can also result in him eating unnecessary ground and pound. Ribeiro has shown dubious cardio in the past and completely gassed out in the one decision he’s been to.
Fight Prediction:
Ribeiro will have a 1” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
This should be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts, as both of these two have a 100% finishing rate and have only been to one decision apiece. They’re both kind of sloppy, but Ribeiro is the more skilled fighter, while Zhang typically relies on brute force and overpowering his opponents. Ribeiro has faced stiffer competition and Zhang has never fought against anyone decent before. If the fight hits the mat Ribeiro will have a sizable grappling advantage and will have a really good shot at submitting Zhang. Things could be a little dicier on the feet and they’re both capable of knocking out the other. While Zhang is big and strong, we see more advantages for Ribeiro in this matchup, as he’s got better grappling and length and has had the tougher schedule to get here. However, neither guy has been overly impressive and this is a low-level fight that carries some inherent volatility. Nevertheless, we’re taking the slight underdog in Ribeiro and he’s live for both a knockout or a submission. It’s also not impossible that both guys gas out in round two and they limp to a decision, but that’s by far the least likely outcome here.
Our favorite bet here is “Brendson Ribeiro ML” at +102.
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DFS Implications:
Zhang is a young Chinese fighter who’s yet to face any legitimate competition in his career, which makes it tough to truly evaluate how good he is. However, he has a 100% finishing rate with all 16 of his wins ending in round one, so the upside is clearly there if his skills can translate to the next level. He’s a big guy with solid power, but he still looks pretty green and his striking defense is to throw more offense. He’s also just a BJJ blue belt and we suspect he’ll get exposed on the mat in the UFC. It would be surprising if his cardio was good and he’s 0-3 in fights that made it to the second round, but the last of those occurred all the way back in 2018, so all we can do is speculate on his gas tank. He also hasn’t competed in 20 months, which adds some additional uncertainty as he makes his UFC debut. So Zhang is more or less of a wild card, but historically he’s relied on landing first round finishes to win fights. Working in his favor, Ribeiro was knocked out in the first round in two of his last five fights and also likes to brawl. So this sets up as an uptempo, high-upside matchup where the winner will likely be decided early and should score well. The books think this fight ends within one round around two thirds of the time. The odds imply Zhang has a 52% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Ribeiro also has a 100% finishing rate and has only made it to the judges once in 21 pro fights. He just landed a first round knockout on DWCS and his last five fights all ended in round one (3-2). He’s faced tougher competition than Zhang and is also the better grappler, while also having a 6” reach advantage. If the fight hits the ground, Ribeiro will have a good shot at locking up a submission and he loves fishing for guillotines. And while he’s not as stout as Zhang, he still has knockout power on the feet as well. Zhang looks super hittable and Ribeiro has tons of scoring potential in this high-upside matchup. We see more ways for Ribeiro to win, which makes him a really interesting underdog play on both sites. Ribeiro opened the week as a +120 underdog, but money has come in on him pushing this closer to a pick’em. That leaves Ribeiro underpriced on DraftKings, which will drive up his ownership some, which is just something to keep in mind when trying to build unique lineups on this smaller slate. The odds imply Ribeiro has a 48% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Rinya Nakamura
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Nakamura was originally scheduled to face Brady Hiestand here, but Hiestand dropped out and Vera was announced as the replacement four weeks out.
Keeping his undefeated record intact, Nakamura is coming off a decision win over a terrible Fernie Garcia, who is now 0-4 in the UFC. Nakamura took Garcie down on all four of his attempts and finished with nine and a half minutes of control time and three official submission attempts, but couldn’t get Garcia out of there. There wasn’t much striking in the match, with Nakamura finishing ahead 36-15 in significant strikes and 56-50 in total strikes. Prior to that, Nakamura landed a 33 second R1 KO win over Toshiomi Kazama in the Road to UFC finals, and finished all three of his opponents in that tournament in the first round, with two knockouts and one submission. Nakamura only turned pro in May 2021 and has only been in two fights that lasted longer than five and a half minutes, which both ended in decisions.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Nakamura has five wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. Five of those finishes came in the first round, with the other ending 20 seconds into round two.
Overall, Nakamura is a Japanese national wrestling champion who won gold at the under 23 world wrestling championships in 2017. He had been preparing for the 2020 Olympics, but after they were postponed he transitioned to MMA. In addition to his impressive wrestling, Nakamura has shown decent striking, solid power, and good quickness on the feet. With that said, he has pretty limited striking experience and at 28 years old he still has plenty of room to grow. He’s very athletic, but it will be interesting to see how he handles more experienced opponents as he works his way up in the UFC. While he comes out aggressively looking for finishes, when he’s unable to get opponents out of there early his striking pace slows down considerably. He was far more focussed on looking for submissions than ground and pound in his recent decision win, and it would serve him well to look to do more damage on the mat to potentially open up submission opportunities and ground and pound finishes.
Carlos Vera
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Vera will be making his UFC debut following a brief appearance on The Ultimate Fighter, where he lost a two-round decision to Brad Katona in the first round of the show. Katona landed all four of his takedown attempts in that fight and controlled Vera for seven of the 10 minutes. Prior to that, Vera won four straight fights with Fury FC, with the last two of those both ending in guillotines, after the first two went the distance. Not counting Vera’s recent decision loss on TUF, which technically counts as an exhibition match, his last 12 fights all either went the distance (5-1) or ended via submission (5-1). The only time anyone has been knocked out in one of his fights was when he landed a first round TKO against an 0-1 opponent back in 2015 in his second pro fight.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Vera has one TKO win, five submissions, and five decision victories. He has two first round submission wins, one in round two, and two more in round three. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted twice and has one decision, not counting another decision loss on TUF. Both of his submission losses occurred in round two, with one of those coming in his 2014 pro debut and the other in 2020.
Overall, Vera started training Taekwondo at a young age and is now a 4th degree black belt, so it makes sense he has a kick-heavy approach. He’s also a BJJ brown belt and has Capoeira experience. He trains at Ryan Hall's gym in Falls Church, where Vera serves as a striking coach. So it should come as no surprise that he’s comfortable looking for submission off his back and will hunt for leg locks. He really likes going for guillotines as well. While he can grapple a little, his wrestling is terrible and basically everyone takes him down with great success. That’s obviously concerning here as he faces a decorated wrestler in his UFC debut.
Fight Prediction:
Nakamura will have a 1” height advantage, but Vera will have a 1” reach advantage. Nakamura is eight years younger than the 36-year-old Vera.
The UFC continues to build Nakamura up with cupcake matchups and this is a great spot for him to find wrestling success and potentially a finish, as both of Vera’s early losses ended in submissions. As long as Nakamura can avoid tripping into a guillotine or a heel hook, or walking into a spinning roundhouse, he should be able to cruise to a win here, which isn’t exactly breaking news considering he’s a -1400 favorite. While five of Nakamura’s eight career wins ended in knockouts, we think that’s actually his least likely path to victory here and we prefer his chances of locking up a submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Nakamura/Vera Fight Ends in SUB” at +250.
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DFS Implications:
Nakamura landed a 33 second R1 KO win in his UFC debut that was good for 139 DraftKings points with the help of the Quick Win Bonus and two knockdowns, but then followed up that nuclear performance with just an 85 point decision win in his last fight. He still dominated that fight over the course of three rounds and landed all four of his takedown attempts with nine and a half minutes of control time, but his low striking output prevented him from really scoring well. Maybe that’s something he’ll work on improving or maybe it’s just who he is, but that will be a concern moving forward, especially when he comes in as the most expensive fighter on the card like he is here. Working in his favor, he gets another great matchup here against a debuting opponent who struggles to defend takedowns and has been submitted twice in the past. So Nakamura has a good shot at landing a finish, or at the very least grinding out another wrestling-heavy decision win, but there are clearly ways he comes out victorious and still gets priced out of winning lineups. Nevertheless, he’s a high-floor, high-upside play who should be popular once again, so it makes sense to lock him into low-risk lineups. The odds imply Nakamura has an 89% chance to win, a 57% chance to land a finish, and a 33% chance it comes in round one.
Vera is making his UFC debut on four weeks notice in a nightmare matchup, as we’ve seen Vera really struggle to defend takedowns in the past. That will likely leave Vera reliant on locking up some sort of hail mary defensive submission like a guillotine or heel hook, both of which he often looks for. He does train at Ryan Hall’s gym, who’s the king of leg locks, and Nakamura is still fairly inexperienced, so it’s not entirely impossible Vera could pull off a stunning upset here, but it is very unlikely. And while that sort of defensive submission would be unlikely to score especially well, as the cheapest fighter on the slate he doesn’t need a huge score to be useful. He’ll also be incredibly low owned, which is especially useful on this smaller slate. So while he’s not #good and likely gets completely dominated here on the mat, it makes sense to have a minor amount of exposure in large-field tournaments. The odds imply Vera has an 11% chance to win, a 6% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
18th UFC Fight (10-7)De Lima had been scheduled to face Justin Tafa here as a -140 favorite, but Tafa dropped out during weigh-ins and was immediately replaced by his brother Junior who’s filling in on the shortest possible notice. As of Friday late afternoon, De Lima is now a -210 favorite in the new matchup.
Coming off just his second knockout loss in 31 pro fights and his first since 2012, De Lima got caught by a Derrick Lewis flying knee right out of the gate and was then finished with ground and pound in a fight that lasted just 33 seconds. Prior to that loss, De Lima won a decision over Waldo Cortes-Acosta, where De Lima destroyed the lead leg of Cortes-Acosta with 28 landed leg strikes, while also taking him down three times and controlling him for five fights. That came after De Lima locked up his first submission win since 2016 when he finished Andrei Arlovski in the first round with a rear-naked choke after knocking him down with a flurry of punches. Just before that, De Lima lost a close decision to Blagoy Ivanov, after knocking out Ben Rothwell in the first round and winning another wrestling-heavy decision over Maurice Greene. De Lima’s last seven fights have alternated between first round finishes (2-2) and decisions (2-1). While De Lima’s last two losses ended in a first round knockout and a decision, his other five UFC defeats all ended in submissions in the first two rounds. The most recent of those submission losses was in early 2020, when Alexander Romanov choked him out in round one.
De Lima worked his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter Brazil in 2014, where despite getting submitted by Antonio Carlos Junior in his third fight on the show, he still got the chance to make his UFC debut just a couple of weeks later. He was competing as a somewhat undersized Heavyweight at the time, and tipped the scales at just 235 lb for his debut, which he won with a lightning fast 20 second R1 KO. He then dropped down to Light Heavyweight for his next six fights, where he went 3-3, before moving back up to Heavyweight in 2018 after he missed weight by four pounds in back-to-back fights trying to make Light Heavyweight. All six of his fights at Light Heavyweight ended early, including five in round one and one in round two. After fighting at 235 lb in his UFC debut at Heavyweight, De Lima shot up to 253 lb in his 2018 return to the weight class and has recently been as heavy as 264.5 lb. In his 10 fights since returning to Heavyweight (6-4), De Lima has fought to four decisions (3-1), has landed two first round knockouts and one first round submission win, has been knocked out once in round one himself, and has been submitted twice (both times in under 1.5 rounds).
Now 21-9-1 as a pro, De Lima has 14 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. Despite being a BJJ black belt De Lima has been submitted in five of his nine pro losses and looks helpless off his back. He’s also been knocked out twice (R2 2012 & R1 2023) and has two decision defeats. He’s won three of the last four decisions he’s been to and and only has one decision loss since 2011.
Overall, De Lima’s fight strategy appears to be to look for knockouts early in fights before settling into riding out top position on the mat. However, when he gets reversed or taken down himself it almost always ends up with him getting submitted and he’s terrible off his back. He’s a fast starter with bad cardio and tires out late in fights. He hasn’t finished anybody beyond the first round since 2010, but he’s also never been finished past the midway mark of round two and all 31 of his pro fights either ended in under a round and a half (17-7) or went the distance (4-2-1). He’s never won more than two fights in a row in the UFC, but has also never lost two in a row with the organization. The last time he suffered consecutive losses was in 2011-2012.
Junior Tafa
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Stepping into this matchup with no time to prepare, Tafa was announced as the replacement during weigh-ins after his brother dropped out. The last time we saw Tafa was in August when he notched his first UFC win in a quick 84 second knockout of a suspect Parker Porter who’s been finished eight times in his career. Prior to that, Tafa lost a wrestling-heavy decision in his UFC debut against a terrible Mohammed Usman. Tafa showed just how helpless he is on his back and against the fence in that fight, something every opponent should be looking to expose moving forward. Usman finished with 12 minutes of control time and landed 2 of his 12 takedown attempts. Tafa looked like he had never trained wrestling a day in his life in the fight, while he finished ahead just 22-7 in significant strikes in a complete snoozer. That was the first time Tafa has been to a third round, after he finished all four of his previous opponents in under 10 minutes.
Still just 5-1 as a pro, all five of Tafa’s wins ended in KO/TKOs, with four ending in round one and one in round two. He made his pro MMA debut at Light Heavyweight in July 2022, before moving up to Heavyweight, where he’s stayed since. He talked about dropping back down to Light Heavyweight after his debut, but clearly that didn’t happen, and he would have had a lot of weight to cut, as he tipped the scale at 255 lb in his last match.
Overall, Tafa is a one-dimensional kickboxer with decent power but terrible cardio and no grappling. While he has a lot of kickboxing and Muay Thai experience, he’s still very new to MMA after just turning pro in July 2022. However, he has been one of Mark Hunt’s sparring partners for a while and his brother Justin joined the UFC back in 2019, so he’s been around the game for some time. He looks to land early knockouts in all of his fights and doesn’t appear to have a plan B. He seemed completely disinterested in returning to his feet after getting taken down in his debut, and we expect him to struggle against anyone who can wrestle.
Fight Prediction:
Tafa will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 75” reach. Tafa is 11 years younger than the 38-year-old De Lima.
This matchup is super straightforward. Tafa is a one-dimensional power puncher with terrible wrestling and no cardio. De Lima is a well-rounded BJJ black belt with decent wrestling and powerful striking, but also bad cardio. There’s zero reason why De Lima should spend much time striking with Tafa and we expect him to get this fight to the ground and hang out in top position for 15 minutes. It’s not impossible that he could finish Tafa on the mat, but De Lima only has one submission win since 2012 and typically just rides out top position on the ground to secure decisions. This will likely get sloppy down the stretch, as both guys have bad cardio, but we still expect De Lima to have just enough energy to land takedowns and then lay on top of Tafa until the final horn. De Lima by decision is our pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Marcos Rogerio de Lima ML” at -200.
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DFS Implications:
De Lima is slightly underpriced following the late opponent change, as he opened the week as a -140 favorite against Justin Tafa, but is now a -210 favorite against Junior Tafa. De Lima has averaged 107 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins and has been finished in six of his seven UFC losses, so whoever wins his fights generally scores well. However, he only scored 81 DraftKings points in his last decision win, showing that big scores aren’t always automatic. However, he scored 106 points in his second most recent decision victory, and he can score well on DraftKings even without a finish. This sets up as a great matchup for him to find a ton of wrestling success as he takes on a one-dimensional kickboxer who stepped into this fight on Friday with zero time to prepare. However, Junior had been helping his brother Justin prepare for this matchup before he dropped out, so he was at least familiar with De Lima and knew what Justin’s game plan would be, making this a very unique situation. Nevertheless, we have no idea what kind of shape Tafa is in and he already had bad cardio to begin with. That increases De Lima’s chances of a dominant win and this looks like a great spot for him to score well as long as he can avoid getting knocked out. While De Lima is coming off a knockout loss to Derrick Lewis, that’s only the second time he’s been knocked out in 31 pro fights and has been far more prone to getting submitted throughout his career. He shouldn’t have to worry about any submissions here, leaving him with fewer ways to fail. Just keep in mind, De Lima does have poor cardio himself so it’s entirely possible that both guys gas out in this fight. But as long as De Lima isn’t any more tired than Tafa, he should be able to ride out a decision win down the stretch. The odds imply Tafa has a 65% chance to win.
Tafa is a one-dimensional kickboxer who offers absolutely nothing when it comes to grappling and has shown questionable cardio in the past. He relies on landing knockouts to win fights and only turned pro in July 2022, but does have a background in kickboxing and Muay Thai. His lack of experience was evident in his debut, and you have to imagine he’s working on improving his grappling, but it hasn’t even been a year since he joined the UFC and he has no time to prepare for this matchup. We’ve never seen anyone look more disinterested than Tafa in trying to work back to their feet, and if this fight hits the mat he’ll be in serious trouble. That leaves him with a non-existent floor, but he still has early knockout upside if he can catch De Lima with something clean before getting taken down. It will be interesting to see where Tafa’s ownership ends up. The fact that he’s cheap and landed a first round knockout in his last fight should garner some interest from the field, but he also accepted this fight on Friday and it’s a terrible stylistic matchup for him. So he’s got a really wide range of outcomes, but you have to like his upside, especially if he ends up being lower owned. The short notice nature of this matchup adds some inherent volatility, but ultimately Tafa is a KO or bust fighter every time he steps inside the Octagon, regardless of the circumstances. The odds imply Tafa has a 35% chance to win.
Fight #6
Amanda Lemos
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Lemos was originally scheduled to fight Tatiana Suarez here, but Suarez pulled out and Dern was announced as the replacement about a month out.
Lemos finally worked her way up to a title shot only to get dominated by Zhang Weili on the mat for five rounds. Zhang took her down six times on seven attempts and finished with 16 minutes of control time, while leading in strikes 296-29 in the extremely lopsided affair. Prior to that, Lemos had only been taken down twice in her first nine UFC fights combined, which just shows how far ahead Zhang is from the rest of the division. Leading up to that loss, Lemos landed a third round TKO win over Marina Rodriguez, who had previously never been finished in her career. That was only the second time in Lemos’ career and the first in the UFC that she landed a finish beyond the seven minute mark in a fight. And after not landing a takedown in her previous five fights, Lemos was able to take Rodriguez down and control her for a few minutes on the mat. She also showed improved cardio in the match and despite already being 36 years old, it appeared she was improving aspects of her game. Prior to that, Lemos locked up a second round guillotine win against Michelle Waterson-Gomez, after getting submitted herself by Jessica Andrade in the first round of her previous fight. That’s the only time Lemos has ever been submitted. The only other time she’s been finished was in a second round TKO in her 2017 UFC debut, which took place at 135 lb. A few months after that 2017 defeat Lemos was hit with a lengthy suspension when she tested positive for steroids and ended up taking 29 months off before returning to the Octagon in 2019. During her time away, she dropped two weight classes and returned at 115 lb, after clearly looking undersized at 135 lb. She won five straight at the new weight class, including three first round finishes, before suffering her first 115 lb loss against Andrade.
Now 13-3-1 as a pro, Lemos has eight wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decision victories. Eight of her 11 finishes occurred in the first round, while she also has one in round two and two in round three. Her last two early wins both came in the later rounds. Two of her three losses also ended early, with a second round TKO and a first round submission. She’s also coming off the first decision loss of her career. Only three of her 10 UFC fights required the judges.
Overall, Lemos is a violent finisher who throws every shot with violent intentions and when she locks up a guillotine, she’s looking to take home a souvenir. She’s historically been the most dangerous in round one, but she’s shown improved cardio in her last few fights and four of her last five fights made it to the second round, with three of those seeing round three and two going the distance. The last time she finished anybody in the first round was all the way back in July 2021. Lemos is a powerful but patient striker who relies more on landing big shots than a ton of volume, but once she gets an opponent hurt she’ll unload to try and finish fights. She’s landed five knockdowns in the UFC, although failed to knockdown any of her last four opponents. She’ll also look to lock up submissions on the mat, and loves to defend takedowns with guillotines. Now 36 years old, Lemos got a late start in MMA as she didn’t turn pro until 2014 when she was already 27 years old. That could mean she has more tread left on the tires than your typical 36-year-old fighter. While Lemos has landed five takedowns on nine attempts (55.6% accuracy) in her 10 UFC fights, four of those came in her first three UFC matches and she’s gone just 1 for 5 on her attempts in her last seven matches, failing to even attempt a takedown in five of those. On the other side of things, she’s been taken down by her opponents on 8 of their 18 attempts (55.5% defense), but only Zhang was able to take her down more than once in a fight. Lemos had a really solid 81% takedown defense before her fight against Zhang, so her number is now skewed from that one poor performance.
Mackenzie Dern
13th UFC Fight (8-4)Looking to bounce back from the first early loss of her career, Dern suffered a R2 TKO loss against Jessica Andrade in her last fight, amazingly getting knocked down four times in the affair. Dern failed to land any of her four takedown attempts in the fight and unsurprisingly got dominated in the striking exchanges. Prior to that, Dern won a dominant five-round decision over Angela Hill, where Dern landed a career best 126 significant strikes and three takedowns, while also tacking on a knockdown. Dern seemed to channel all of the personal drama she had going on with her divorce and unleashed it on Hill and she fought like a woman possessed for the entire 25 minutes. That came just after Dern lost a five-round majority decision loss to Yan Xiaonan. While Dern’s last fight ended early, her four before that all went the distance (2-2), with three of those being five-round main events. Just before losing to Yan, Dern won a close three-round split decision over Tecia Torres, which we thought Torres should have won. That came just after Dern lost a five-round decision to Marina Rodriguez and Dern has traded wins and losses for six straight fights. While Dern submitted four of her first seven opponents in the UFC, all in the first round, the last time she finished anybody was in early 2021 when she submitted Nina Nunes late in the first round.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Dern has seven wins by submission and six decision victories. Six of her seven submission wins came in the first round, with the one exception being a 2017 third round submission just before Dern made her UFC debut. The only other fight Dern has ever been part of that didn’t end in either a decision or a first round submission win was her recent second round TKO loss. That’s also the only early loss of her career, with her other three defeats all going the distance. Her first 11 UFC fights all ended in either first round submissions (4-0) or decisions (4-3), with three of those decisions being split (2-1).
Overall, Dern is a high level BJJ black belt and former ADCC world champion, but has also improved her striking over the course of her UFC career, although still struggles defensively. She looked more dangerous than ever on the feet in her second most recent fight against Hill, but then looked lost on the feet against Andrade most recently, so she’s still been inconsistent. In her 12 UFC fights, she landed just 8 of her 57 takedown attempts (14% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on three of their five attempts (40% defense). While she’s historically struggled with her takedown accuracy and relied on unorthodox approaches to engaging in grappling exchanges, she has made some improvement to her wrestling and seven of her eight takedowns landed occurred in her last six fights, after she only landed one takedown in her first six UFC appearances. She also has no problem pulling guard to get fights to the mat and is extremely dangerous off her back. Dern hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2020-2021, but has also never lost two in a row in her entire career. Dern will have the home crowd behind her as she lives and trains in California.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’4” but Lemos will have a 2” reach advantage, while Dern is six years younger than the 36-year-old Lemos.
This is a very similar stylistic matchup to Dern’s last one, as she faces another powerful Brazilian striker in Lemos, who has a solid takedown defense, but has struggled off her back when she has been taken down. We just saw Lemos get dominated on the mat for five rounds, but that came against arguably the best wrestler in the division, while Dern is one of the worst. And on the flipside, Dern was just dominated on the feet in a fight where she was unable to land any of her takedown attempts. We still believe that Lemos has a solid takedown defense, despite how her last fight went, and we know she has dynamite in her hands. So she should have a good shot at keeping this fight standing and if she can she should be able to torch Dern on the feet. And on the other side of things, Dern will need to pull out all her tricks to get this one to the mat, while being extremely careful to avoid eating any clean shots. Dern is craft enough that she has a decent shot of finding a way to engage in the grappling exchanges she needs to win, but it’s more likely that Lemos is able to force her into a striking battle and pick her apart on the feet until she eventually finds a TKO stoppage or outlands her way to a tactical decision. There are multiple ways this fight could go, but we’re taking Lemos to win and we think the larger cage will help her to stay upright. We slightly lean towards her fighting a smart, patient game plan and winning a low-volume decision, but if she lands anything clean then she’ll be very live for a finish.
Our favorite bet here is “Amanda Lemos ML” at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Lemos has been a R1 finish or bust fighter when it comes to DFS and she only scored 70 and 83 DraftKings points respectively in her last two finishes, which both occurred in the later rounds. Her third most recent win went the distance and she only scored 68 points there. Her one other UFC decision victory was good for 91 points, which is the most she’s ever scored in a fight that made it out of the first round. However, she has three first round finishes in the UFC, where she averaged 119 DraftKings points, scoring 124 and 128 points in the last two of those. So she does have massive upside and she hits like a truck. We just saw Dern get knocked down FOUR times and finished in her last fight and Lemos has landed five knockdowns in the UFC, which is encouraging for Lemos’ upside. However, Lemos will have to be extremely careful not to let this fight hit the mat, or else she’ll run the risk of being submitted, or at the very least controlled for extended periods of time. That could result in a more patient approach from Lemos and overswinging on her punches or throwing out blind kicks could both spell disaster. That’s concerning for her scoring and we would not be at all surprised to see this end in a low scoring decision, with both fighters looking to bounce back from a bad loss. That leaves Lemos with an extremely wide range of scoring outcomes and it’s risky to take much of a stand here, as Lemos could score one point or 130. The odds imply Lemos has a 56% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Dern has averaged 96 DraftKings points in her eight UFC wins, and scored a career-best 153 points in a five-round decision over Angela Hill in her last win. However, she followed that up with a dud in her last outing where she suffered the first early loss of her career in a second round TKO against an aggressive Brazilian finisher in Andrade. Dern will face a similar test here and only had four weeks to prepare, so who knows what adjustments she’ll have made. It’s clear that Dern holds an advantage on the mat, while Lemos is the far superior striker, so Dern’s success will hinge on her ability to get the fight to the ground. Her 14% career takedown accuracy isn’t very encouraging in that regard, but she will pull guard and entangle herself in grappling exchanges even without landing a takedown. We also saw Lemos get outwrestled for 25 straight minutes in her last fight, but no one should confuse the wrestling of Dern with that of Zhang Weili’s. They’re on opposite ends of the spectrum in that regard, but Dern still has to take some encouragement from that outcome. It looks more like fool’s gold to us though and we’re treating Dern as an over-owned submission or bust play in a tough matchup. The odds imply Dern has a 44% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Anthony Hernandez
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Hernandez was originally set to face Ikram Aliskerov here, but Aliskerov dropped out and Kopylov was announced as the replacement four weeks out. Hernandez and Kopylov had briefly been booked to face one another back in September, but Hernandez dropped out a week after that was put together.
Coming off a third round ground and pound TKO win over Edmen Shahbazyan, Hernandez has won four straight fights since getting knocked out by Kevin Holland in just 39 seconds back in 2020. He finished each of his last two opponents in the third round, after his first two UFC finishes ended in round two. Sandwiched in the middle of those four finishes was a 2022 dominant wrestling-heavy decision win over Josh Fremd. Hernandez had a little bit of a rocky start to his last win, as he absorbed some early strikes from Edmen Shahbazyan and struggled to land his first few takedown attempts. However, Shahbazyan predictably gassed late in the first round and Hernandez dominated him on the mat from that point on, before finishing him a minute into round three. Hernandez finished the fight with six takedowns landed on 15 attempts and over seven minutes of control time. Just before that fight, Hernandez signed a new six-fight UFC contract after becoming the first fighter to ever submit Marc-Andre Barriault. Hernandez smothered Barriault for the entire fight, taking him down eight times with over eight minutes in control time, before submitting him midway through round three. Both fighters suffered injuries in the fight, with Barriault dealing with a rib issue and Hernandez hurting his thumb. Hernandez also landed eight takedowns in his fight prior to that, when he dominated Josh Fremd on the mat for three rounds. That was only the second decision Hernandez has been to and he rarely requires the judges. The only other time he required the scorecards was in a 2018 five-round LFA title fight victory against Brendan Allen. Prior to beating Fremd, Hernandez took off 14 months after pulling off a massive upset in a second round submission win over Rodolfo Vieira in February 2021.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Hernandez has two wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and two decision victories. One of his knockout wins came 51 seconds into his 2014 pro debut and seven of his last eight finishes came via submission. All four of his submission victories prior to joining the UFC occurred in round one, while all three of his UFC submissions came in the later rounds, with two in round two and one in round three. His lone UFC TKO win also ended in round three. Just before joining the UFC, Hernandez also knocked Jordan Wright out in the first round on DWCS, but the results were overturned to a No Contest when Hernandez tested positive for THC. Both of Hernandez’s losses also ended early, with a second round submission in his 2019 UFC debut and a 39 second R1 KO loss to Kevin Holland two fights later in 2020. However, after starting just 1-2 in the UFC he’s now won four straight. While six of Hernandez’s seven UFC fights ended early, all but one of them made it out of the first round.
Overall, Hernandez is a relentless grappler who does an excellent job of weaponizing his cardio with non-stop takedown attempts in all of his fights. He’s a BJJ brown belt and is typically looking to lock up chokes on the mat, although he did just land his first UFC KO/TKO—after attempting four submissions. He’s not helpless on the feet, but that’s definitely not his strong suit and he’s just 1-2 in UFC fights where he failed to land a takedown. Meanwhile, he landed six or more takedowns in four of his five UFC wins. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS, Hernandez landed 28 of his 49 takedown attempts (57.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 19 attempts (63.2% defense). The only fighter to get him down more than once was Rodolfo Vieira, who took Hernandez down four times before getting submitted by Hernandez in round two. Hernandez landed six or more takedowns against every opponent he tried to take down.
Roman Kopylov
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Continuing to look better every time he steps inside the Octagon, Kopylov has really turned his career around after starting 0-2 in the UFC. He was embarrassingly submitted in the third round of his 2019 UFC debut against Karl Roberson and then nearly submitted in the second round of his next fight against Albert Duraev, where he survived to lose a decision. However, he bounced back with a third round knockout win over Alessio Di Chirico, followed by three straight second round knockout victories against Punahele Soriano, Claudio Ribeiro, and Josh Fremd. Kopylov has clearly benefited from favorable matching over his current run, as all of those opponents are primarily strikers, although they all did try and fail to take Kopylov down on 13 combined attempts. Kopylov struggled with inactivity early in his UFC career and there was nearly a two year gap between his debut and his second UFC appearance, and then almost another full year before his third UFC match. However, he’s been very active over the last year and a half and now has a lot of momentum going.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Kopylov has 11 wins by KO/TKO and one decision. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once and has one decision defeat. Only one of his 11 knockout wins occurred in the first round, while five came in round two, three ended in round three, and two occurred in round four. After winning a decision in his 2016 pro debut, he landed seven straight knockouts leading up to his 2019 UFC debut. His last eight fights all made it out of the first round, with five of those seeing round three, but only one going the distance. His last six wins all ended in late round knockouts.
Overall, Kopylov is a crisp and powerful one-dimensional striker who has shown consistent improvements throughout his UFC career. He throws lightning fast kicks and he’s incredibly dangerous on the feet. He doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling, with just two takedowns landed on four attempts (50% accuracy) in his six UFC fights, but his opponents only got him down on 2 of their 25 attempts (92% defense). However, when he has been taken down he’s looked absolutely terrible on the mat, which has been a glaring weakness. And while his takedown defense looks elite on paper, the closest thing to a good wrestler he’s faced was Albert Duraev, who has an incredibly low fight IQ and didn’t even attempt a takedown until round two. Maybe Kopylov’s takedown defense has actually improved, but we won’t know that until we see how it holds up in this next fight, which is unquestionably the toughest matchup he’s had to date in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” with a 75” reach, but Hernandez is two years younger than the 32-year-old Kopylov.
This is a nightmare matchup for Kopylov, who is an amazing striker but a terrible grappler. Kopylov lost both of his UFC fights where he was taken down even once, getting submitted in one of those matches by a kickboxer and nearly submitted in the other as well. Meanwhile, Hernandez is 4-0 in the UFC when he’s landed a takedown and consistently dominates opponents on the mat. Yes, Kopylov is the superior striker here and does come in with a 92% takedown defense, but context is key and Kopylov hasn’t faced any good grapplers in the UFC. So his defense is inflated by the fact that it’s mostly been strikers looking to take him down. We expect Hernandez to be able to get him down in this fight, even if he fails to land his initial attempts. Kopylov’s only hope will be to knock Hernandez out before ending up on his back, and Kopylov’s finishes have historically come from an accumulation of damage in the later rounds. That seemingly lowers the chances of him getting a quick finish here, although he has enough power that it’s not impossible. With that said, we like Hernandez to win this fight with his grappling and submit Kopylov, most likely in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Anthony Hernandez SUB” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Hernandez does an exceptional job of wearing out his opponents with his wrestling and will now face a one-dimensional striker who has looked terrible on the mat. Hernandez has averaged an insane 116 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, scoring 116 or more in four of those. The only time he failed to hit the century mark in a victory was in a 2021 second round submission win over Rodolfo Vieira, where Hernandez was defending takedowns instead of landing them and only scored 94 points. While he’s only been to the judges twice in his entire pro career, he scored 117 DraftKings points in his lone UFC decision win, showing that he can score well with or without a finish. Even on FanDuel, he scored 112 points in that decision victory, with the help of eight takedowns and three submission attempts. So he’s a rock solid play on both sites, which is rare for grapplers. The only downside for him in tournaments is his ownership, which has been steadily rising over his current four fight winning streak, reaching 43% in his last victory. He projects to be very popular once again, which is just something to be mindful of when building tournament lineups. The odds imply Hernandez has a 68% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Kopylov has landed four straight late-round knockouts and 10 of his 11 career wins ended early. He averaged 96 DraftKings points in those four UFC finishes, but was fortunate not to face any grapplers over that stretch. Prior to those wins, we saw him really struggle on the mat in his first two UFC fights, which both ended in losses. Maybe he’s improved his ground game—he has to be working on it—but we haven’t seen him put on his back since October 2021 so it’s impossible to know. Based on what we have seen, he’ll be in danger of getting submitted anytime this fight hits the ground and also has no idea how to escape bottom position. And while he does have a 92% takedown defense, that hasn’t been tested by any good grapplers and is potentially somewhat fraudulent. That leaves Kopylov as a boom or bust option who will need to keep the fight standing at all costs and will be reliant on landing a knockout to win and score well. Hernandez has been knocked out once in the UFC and Kopylov can definitely crack, but 10 of Kopylov’s 11 career knockouts occurred in the later rounds and he’s never excelled at quickly putting opponents away. That’s not encouraging for his chances of landing a knockout before he gets taken down. The odds imply Kopylov has a 32% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Merab Dvalishvili
12th UFC Fight (9-2)Coming off the biggest win of his career, Dvalishvili impressively won a unanimous 50-45 decision against the former Bantamweight champ in Petr Yan. Dvalishvili just melted Yan with his non-stop pressure for 25 straight minutes, as he attempted a UFC record-setting 49 takedown attempts, landing 11 of them. Yan came into that fight with an elite 90% takedown defense and to his credit, defended 38 of the 49 attempts from Dvalishvili. However, it didn’t even come down to how many takedowns Dvalishvili landed or how many Yan defended, it simply came down to the pace Dvalishvili was setting, which no other human could hope to keep up with. Dvalishvili blended his striking and wrestling so well that it was just a constant barrage of strestling that Yan had no answer for. We’ve never seen anyone make Yan look that lost in a fight. Prior to that, Dvalishvili won a decision against Jose Aldo, despite Aldo successfully defending all 16 of Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts. Aldo is known for his elite takedown defense and just like Yan entered with a 90% career defense.
Dvalishvili somehow started 0-2 in the UFC with a split decision loss to Frankie Saenz and a controversial post R3 technical submission stoppage against Ricky Simon. However, since then he’s won nine straight fights, with eight of those going the distance. His only finish in the UFC was against Marlon Moraes, who has been knocked out in seven straight fights. Ironically, Moraes is the only fighter to put Dvalishvili in much danger over his current winning streak and nearly had him out of there early in the first round before punching himself out looking for the finish. The UFC has tested Dvalishvili with numerous wrestlers and opponents with elite takedown defenses and even when Dvalishvili has struggled with his takedown efficiency in some of those tough matchups, he continues to come out victorious through sheer pace and tenacity. Four of his last five opponents entered his fights with an 80%+ career takedown defense, yet Aldo is the only fighter to ever stuff all of Dvalishvili’s attempts.
Now 16-4 as a pro, Dvalishvili has three wins by KO, one submission, and 12 decision victories. Three of his four finishes came earlier in his career before he joined the UFC and his second most recent early win was all the way back in 2017. He’s never been knocked out, and the only time he’s ever been finished came in a weird post round three technical submission loss to Ricky Simon in 2018. His other three losses all ended in decisions, with two of those occurring in his first three pro fights.
Overall, Dvalishvili is a relentless wrestler with an endless gas tank. He’s also improved his striking over the course of his UFC career, largely out of necessity as he’s faced tougher competition that he can’t ragdoll for entire fights. In his 11 UFC fights, Dvalishvili has landed 74 takedowns on an insane 204 attempts (36.2% accuracy). On the other side of things, he’s only been taken down by his opponents four times on 19 attempts, (78.9% defense), although only two of his last nine opponents even tried to take him down. Unsurprisingly, we have seen his takedown efficiency plummet as he’s begun facing tougher competition. In his first six UFC appearances, Dvalishvili landed 52 of his 104 attempts (50% accuracy). However, in his last five fights, Dvalishvili landed just 22 of his 100 attempts (22% accuracy). However, that’s where his improved striking and non-stop pressure come into play and he’s proven that even failed takedown attempts are an effective way of weaponizing his cardio. He’ll face another tough wrestling test here as he gets the former Olympic wrestler in Henry Cejudo who enters with a solid 83% takedown defense.
Henry Cejudo
14th UFC Fight (10-3)Cejudo came out of retirement last May after three years away and was immediately granted a title shot against Aljamain Sterling, which Cejudo lost by split decision. Sterling finished ahead in significant strikes 135-99, total strikes 186-143, and in takedowns 4-3, in what wasn’t the most eventful fight, but two of the three judges got it right. Immediately after the fight, Cejudo talked about maybe calling it a career and seemed very uncertain of his future. However, he then accepted a fight against Marlon Vera in August, only to drop out due to a shoulder injury. Cejudo’s second most recent fight was all the way back in May 2020 in the infamous Dominick Cruz fight that Cruz still bitches about to this day every time he gets a microphone in front of him, complaining of a quick stoppage. That was Cejudo’s first title defense at 135 lb, after he won the vacant belt against Marlon Moraes just before that. The 135 lb belt had previously been stripped from T.J. Dillashaw following a failed drug test, which ironically is who Cejudo defended the 125 lb belt against just before that. That came just after Cejudo originally won the 125 lb strap via split decision in a rematch against Demetrious Johnson, who had previously knocked Cejudo out in the first round back in 2016. Cejudo followed up that initial loss to Johnson with a 2016 split decision defeat against Joseph Benavidez, before winning six straight fights and two belts from 2017 to 2020. Cejudo’s last two losses both ended in split decisions and amazingly, four of his last five decisions were split (2-2).
Now 16-3 as a pro, Cejudo has eight wins by TKO and eight decision victories. Five of those finishes came in round one, two ended in round two, and one occurred in round three. However, four of those five first round TKOs came in his first four pro fights and three of his last four early wins came in rounds two and three, with the one exception coming against a compromised T.J. Dillashaw. The only time Cejudo has ever been finished was by Demetrious Johnson in the first round of a 2016 125 lb title fight via TKO. His other two losses both ended in split decisions. The majority of Cejudo’s career took place at 125 lb. However, the cut down to 125 lb appeared to be a tough one for him and if you look back to the start of his UFC career, he dropped out of four of his five scheduled fights and missed weight in the other before finally making his December 2014 UFC debut up at 135 lb. He had been scheduled to make his debut four months earlier at 125 lb, but dropped out due to weight cutting issues. However, after winning a decision in his debut at 135 lb, he was able to successfully get down to 125 for his next fight with the help of the resources provided by the UFC. His next nine fights were all at 125 lb (7-2) and he never once missed weight, before making the permanent move up to 135 lb in 2019 for his last three fights.
Overall, Cejudo’s name is rarely brought up without mentioning that he was a 2008 Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling. In his first 12 UFC appearances, his opponents were only able to take him down once on 15 attempts (93.3% defense), with Demetrious Johnson being the one fighter to complete a takedown against him. Over that same stretch, Cejudo landed 21 takedowns on 62 attempts (33.9% accuracy). Following his three year retirement, Cejudo got taken down by Aljamain Sterling four times on 15 attempts (73.3 defense), while landing 3 of his own 8 attempts (37.5% accuracy). So if we look at his career as a whole, Cejudo landed 24 takedowns on 70 attempts (34.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 5 of their 30 attempts (83.3% defense). The only time Cejudo ever landed more than three takedowns in a fight was in his second UFC match, when he landed six. He also doesn’t land much in the way of striking volume, as he only averages 3.93 SSL/min and 3.15 SSA/min. After adapting more of a karate stance midway through his UFC career, Cejudo began getting his lead leg chewed up more often, most notably by Demetrious Johnson. We then saw Cejudo tighten up his stance a little, but Marlon Moraes was still able to successfully attack his legs when they squared off. And in his last fight, Cejudo ate 34 of the 38 leg kicks that Sterling threw. So that continues to be an issue for Cejudo. At 37 years old and with retirement constantly on his mind, any fight could be Cejudo’s last.
Fight Prediction:
Dvalishvili will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while also being four years younger than the 37-year-old Cejudo.
It’s easy to look at Dvalishvili’s wrestling-heavy attack and think his success is dependent on his ability to land takedowns. That’s a mistake even we’ve made in the past. And from that angle, this certainly looks like a tough matchup as he faces a former Olympic wrestling gold medalist in Cejudo who has an 83% takedown defense. However, Dvalishvili doesn’t need to land takedowns to win minutes, he just needs to push a pace that only he can keep up with. Regardless of whether he’s successful or not with his takedown attempts, they are draining the cardio of his opponents far faster than his own. He could go 0 for 20 on his attempts in this fight and still easily win a decision. His output is absolutely insane and the chances of a 37-year-old half-retired opponent keeping up with him are practically non-existent. It doesn’t matter if it’s three rounds or five, Cejudo will not be able to match the pace and output of Dvalishvili. That leaves Cejudo with one path to victory, which will be to land a hail mary knockout against an opponent in Dvalishvili who’s never been knocked out. We didn’t think Cejudo looked good in his last fight and now he’s just older and less confident nine months after that loss. Dvalishvili by decision is the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Merab Dvalishvili DEC” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Dvalishvili continues to put up face-melting scores and has now scored 164 or more DraftKings points in two of his last three wins. Looking at the entirety of his nine UFC wins, he averaged 125 DraftKings points, with seven scores of 108 or more and six of at least 124. However, he did score just 78 points in a 2022 decision win over Jose Aldo and only 74 points in a 2020 decision victory over John Dodson, both of whom have elite takedown defenses and don’t absorb many strikes. Aldo finished his UFC career with a 91% takedown defense and averaged 3.74 SSA/min, while Dodson finished with an 82% takedown defense and averaged 3.58 SSA/min. Neither of them fought again in the UFC following their losses to Dvalishvili. Cejudo comes into this matchup with an 83% takedown defense and averaging 3.15 SSA/min. Cejudo is also a former Olympic wrestling gold medalist blah blah blah…although he did get taken down four times by Sterling in his last fight. Regardless, there are easy arguments to be made that Cejudo will be able to stuff a good percentage of Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts. And while Dvalishvili can still win the fight without landing many takedowns, it gets tougher for him to really score well in that situation. In his two UFC fights where he landed two or fewer takedowns, he only averaged 76 DraftKings points, while he landed four or more in all of his other seven UFC wins and averaged 139 points. Perhaps Cejudo is washed up at this point and we’ll see his takedown defense continue to decline, but if that’s not the case, Dvalishvili will be reliant on putting up a huge striking total to score well. He does a good job of racking up clinch strikes, which makes him a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but keep in mind he only has three rounds to work with here, opposed to the five he had in his last match. If his last fight had ended after the third round, Dvalishvili would have scored 96 DraftKings points and 93 points on FanDuel. While that’s not a bad score, it’s still borderline enough for him to be useful in tournaments. So there are at least ways he wins this fight and doesn’t end up in the optimal, but his upside is undeniable. And while we’ve been more focussed on looking for ways he fails in tournaments due to his perpetually high ownership, he’s still a great play in low-risk contests based on his high floor and ceiling combination. The odds imply Dvalishvili has a 66% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Cejudo is now 37 years old, has only fought once since May 2020, and is coming off a decision loss to Aljamain Sterling that left him pondering if he even wanted to continue fighting. Now he’s facing an opponent with a never ending gas tank who makes everyone want to quit. While Dvalishvili’s rabid pace may initially lead you to believe that everyone involved is putting up volume, that actually hasn’t been the case. Dvalishvili only averages 2.41 SSA/min and has only been taken down four times in 11 UFC fights. He forces his opponents onto the defensive and drains at their cardio until he breaks them. So sure, Cejudo may be tough to takedown, but he’ll still be on the defensive for all of this match as Dvalishvili bombards him with offense. So unless Cejudo lands a hail mary knockout against an opponent who’s never been knocked out, we don’t see many paths to victory for him. And even if Cejudo did somehow squeak out a decision win, he only averaged 83 DraftKings points in his five UFC three-round decisions, failing to top 86 points in all but one of those. It’s possible that could be enough to be useful at his cheap price tag, but it also may not be. We’re expecting Cejudo to carry some ownership based on his name alone, but we don’t see him as anything more than an overowned longshot KO play in a bad matchup. We’re expecting Cejudo to lose a decision here and then re-retire. The odds imply Cejudo has a 34% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Ian Garry
7th UFC Fight (6-0)Garry had been scheduled to face Vicente Luque in December, but ended up catching the flu and then developing pneumonia from it and had to pull out a few days before the event. Prior to that, Garry won an August decision over Neil Magny who stepped into that matchup on just a week and a half’s notice after Geoff Neal dropped out. Garry dominated the fight, finishing ahead 91-27 in significant strikes and 111-51 in total strikes, including landing all 43 of the leg kicks he threw, which left Magny seriously compromised. Garry also landed both of his takedown attempts and controlled Magny for two and a half minutes, although was unable to put Magny away, despite coming close towards the end of the fight. Just before that, Garry handed Daniel Rodriguez his first KO loss in the opening round of a May 2023 match, after landing a late knockout in the final minute of round three against Kenan Song. However, Garry nearly suffered the first loss of his career when he got dropped in the first round of that fight, but was able to recover in the clinch after Song failed to put him away. Prior to those two finishes, Garry won back-to-back decisions over Gabe Green and Darian Weeks, after landing a first round knockout in his 2021 UFC debut against Jordan Williams. Garry nearly got Gabe Green out of there in the third round after knocking him down, but Green was able to survive to lose a unanimous 30-27 decision. On the regional scene, Garry went 7-0 with Cage Warriors and won the vacant Welterweight title in a 25 minute decision in June 2021 just before joining the UFC. Four of Garry’s last five fights made it to the third round, with three of those going the distance.
Now 13-0 as a pro, Garry has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. After going the distance in his 2019 pro debut, Garry landed five straight finishes in the first two rounds before winning the Cage Warriors Welterweight title in a five-round decision. His last six finishes all ended in KO/TKOs, and his only submission victory occurred in the first round of his third pro fight. He has three first round knockouts, three more in round two, and one in round three.
Overall, Garry is still just 26 years old and seems to be constantly improving. He joined Kill Cliff FC leading up to his UFC debut, but was then set to face a teammate in Vicente Luque, so Garry went to England to train at Team Renegade, before they kicked him out mid camp. Garry then moved his camp to Chute Boxe in Brazil, where he also trained for this fight. At 6’3”, he has good size for the division and is a very accurate striker with good footwork, while also being a judo black belt. In his six UFC fights, he only attempted four takedowns, landing three of those (75% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on four of their 13 attempts (69.2% defense). He lands a ton of striking volume, while also being a tough guy to hit, as he averages 6.67 SSL/min and 3.58 SSA/min. Born in Ireland, Garry has been hyping himself up as the next Conor McGregor, saying he’ll be a world champion in the next couple of years. While it’s painful to listen to him talk, the UFC seems on board with building him up, and five of his six UFC fights have been on PPV cards, with his other being on an ABC card. Now he’ll be on another PPV card here as he faces the toughest test of his career. This will be Garry’s fourth fight in the last year, and he’s been staying very active as he tries to climb the rankings.
Geoff Neal
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Neal had been scheduled to fight Garry back in August, but ended up dropping out of the fight a week and a half out, which is when Magny stepped in on short notice. Prior to that, Neal put on a great fight against Shavkat Rakhmonov, but was still ultimately submitted in the third round, which is the only time Neal has been finished in the UFC. Neal notably missed weight by four pounds for that fight, and then afterwards posted, “The people closest to me know how much I had to overcome just to get to this fight. If you thought that was a good fight just wait until I'm 100%.” Neal had dropped out of that same matchup a month and a half earlier and has struggled with making it to fights healthy in recent years. His health struggles started back in August 2020 when he suffered a life threatening health scare and spent a week in the ICU hooked up to a dialysis machine after suffering severe septic shock and being told his heart almost failed. While the lasting impact of those medical issues are unclear, Neal didn’t look like the same fighter in his next two outings, as he lost a pair of decisions to Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny upon his return. He then won a split decision against a struggling Santiago Ponzinibbio and showed glimpses of his old self. We then finally saw Neal back to form when he impressively handed Vicente Luque the first KO loss of his career in the third round of an August 2022 match. And even though Neal lost to Rakhmonov in March 2023, he still looked good in the fight. However, it’s still concerning that Neal dropped out of two of his last three booked fights and missed weight by 4 lb for the other, while making a cryptic post about not being 100% after the fact.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Neal has nine wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. His lone KO loss came up a weight class at 185 lb in the third round of a 2017 fight against Kevin Holland before they joined the UFC. Both of his submission losses also ended in the third round, with one coming in his last match against Shavkat Rakhmonov and the other in his third pro fight back in 2013 against a highly suspect Martin Sano, which is a tough one to explain. While all three of his early losses occurred in the third round, 10 of Neal’s 11 early wins came in the first two rounds, with six in round one and four in round two. His finish over Luque is the only time Neal has ever put anyone away in the third round. Neal typically fights at 170 lb, but had three pro fights at 185 lb before joining the UFC (2-1), all of which ended in knockouts.
Overall, Neal is more or less a pure striker, averaging 5.22 SSL/min and 5.60 SSA/min, and only occasionally mixes in any wrestling, but has an elite takedown defense. Between his 10 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Neal landed four takedowns on nine attempts (44.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on just four of their 32 attempts (87.5% defense). It’s always hard to know which version of Neal is going to show up, but when he’s on his game and in good health he’s one of the best Welterweights on the roster. Other times he’ll look sluggish and disinterested. He’s put together two good performances so maybe he can keep that momentum going here, although it’s now been almost a year since he last competed. Hopefully Neal shows up to this fight and actually makes weight, but he’s always a guy to monitor on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Garry will have a 4” height advantage, but Neal will have a 1” reach advantage. Garry is seven years younger than the 33-year-old Neal.
This is an interesting matchup as it’s clearly the toughest test of Garry’s career, while Neal has already fought several of the top guys, with wins over Belal Muhammad and Vicente Luque, and losses against Shavkat Rakhmonov and Stephen Thompson. So Neal clearly has the experience advantage, while Garry has the momentum of an undefeated record behind him. We’ve seen Neal struggle against taller opponents in the past, with his three UFC losses coming against Shavkat Rakhmonov (6’1”), Neil Magny (6’3”), and Stephen Thompson (6’0”) who fights really long with his karate style. And Neal’s last loss before joining the UFC was against Kevin Holland (6’3”). The only time Neal has defeated an opponent above six feet tall in the UFC was in his 2018 UFC debut against the 6’2” Brian Camozzi, who went 0-3 with the organization. Neal’s last six wins were all against opponents who are between 5’10” and 6’0”. Garry is 6’3” and uses his kicks, quickness, and movement well to fight long. So while Neal is really dangerous with his boxing, that won’t mean much if he can’t find his range. And with that in mind, the larger cage will play into Garry’s favor, as he tries to control the distance and keep Neal at range. That may limit the number of opportunities that Neal has to land many clean shots, which will make it tougher for him to win a decision and also lowers his chances of landing a knockout. It’s fair to point to the fact that Song Kenan nearly knocked Garry out as a reason for optimism in Neal’s finishing chances, but this looks like a tough matchup for him and we know the UFC is actively trying to build Garry up. So despite Neal’s claims that he’s going to knock Garry out in the later rounds, and as much as we would all like to see that happen, it’s more likely that Garry outlands his way to a decision win, or even lands a late knockout of his own. Garry by decision will be our pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Ian Garry DEC” at +162.
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DFS Implications:
Garry has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, scoring 106 or more points in each of his three finishes. While he only scored 62 points in his first decision victory, he was able to put up 95 and 85 points respectively in his last two and his high striking volume leaves him with a decent scoring floor. However, he rarely looks to wrestle and will now be going against the elite takedown defense of Neal, making a surprise wrestling attack very unlikely. So at Garry’s expensive price tag he still needs a finish to return a useful score. That could be tough to achieve, as Neal has been pretty durable and has only been knocked out once in his career, which was all the way back in 2017 in a 185 lb fight against Kevin Holland. Working in Garry’s favor, Neal averages 5.60 SSA/min and his last three opponents all landed 91 or more significant strikes against him. That keeps Garry in play even with a late finish, but we don’t see him landing so many strikes that he tops 100 DraftKings points in a decision win. The odds imply Garry has a 67% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Neal has averaged 98 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins and scored a career-best 121 points in his last victory. However, he only scored 64 and 80 points respectively in his two UFC decision wins, so he has been reliant on landing finishes to score well. And with that in mind, he’s only finished one opponent since 2019 and has dealt with health concerns in recent years. We’ve also seen him struggle against opponents over six feet tall and now he’s facing the undefeated 6’3” Ian Garry. However, this will be a step up in competition for Garry and we saw him get dropped by a much lower level talent in Song Kenan, so Neal at least has a puncher’s chance of getting him out of there. And at Neal’s cheap price tag, if he does finish Garry he’ll for sure end up in winning lineups. While it’s not impossible for him to sneak into winning lineups as a value play in a decision win, he would likely need a slate where not very many other underdogs score well. One final note, the general public’s desire to see Ian Garry get knocked out combined with Neal’s past scoring success should prevent Neal from going overlooked in tournaments. The odds imply Neal has a 33% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Robert Whittaker
21st UFC Fight (15-5)Looking to bounce back from a second round TKO loss against Dricus Du Plessis, Whittaker has now dropped two of his last three fights and only has one win since 2021, which was a decision over Marvin Vettori in September 2022. Du Plessis was able to take Whittaker down late in round one and beat him up with ground and pound, before finishing him with strikes on the feet midway through round two. Both fighters landed their only takedown attempt, but Du Plessis doubled Whittaker up in significant strikes 62-31. Prior to his recent loss, Whittaker had fought to five straight decisions, with four of those occurring in five-round fights. While he easily beat Vettori in a three-round decision before losing to Du Plessis, Whittaker lost a five-round decision to Israel Adesanya just before that. Whittaker’s only other loss in his last 16 fights was also to Adesanya, in a 2019 second round TKO. The last time Whittaker finished anybody was in 2017, when he landed a second round knockout against Jacare Souza.
Now 24-7 as a pro, Whittaker has nine wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and 10 decision victories. Thirteen of his 14 early wins occurred in the first two rounds, with the one exception being a 2013 R3 TKO. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has three decision losses. His lone submission loss occurred all the way back in 2011, while his knockout losses were in 2014, 2019, and 2023. The last two of those ended in round two after the first occurred in round one. His submission loss also ended in round one. Whittaker fought at 170 lb to start his career, where he went 3-2 in his first five UFC fights before moving up to 185 lb in 2014. Since moving up to Middleweight, Whittaker has gone 12-3.
Overall, Whittaker is a very well-rounded fighter who is good everywhere. His only three losses at 185 lb came against the former champ in Adesanya (twice) and the new champ in Du Plessis. Whittaker has a really solid 82% takedown defense and has only been taken down 12 times on 70 attempts in his 20 UFC fights. He’s also tough to hold down when he does get taken down. He’s been incorporating more offensive wrestling of his own lately, and after landing just six combined takedowns in his first 16 UFC fights, Whittaker has landed 10 on 19 attempts in his last four matches. And while he hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2017, he throws dangerous head kicks that are hard to see coming. Whittaker bounced back from his last three losses with decision wins, so we’ll see what the 33-year-old can do here.
Paulo Costa
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Costa hasn't competed since August 2022 when he won a decision over a 37-year-old Luke Rockhold, who was fighting for the fight time in three years. That fight took place at elevation in Salt Lake City and both guys gassed out, but Costa still did enough to win a unanimous 30-27 decision and was close to finding a finish. Since then, Costa has been booked twice but both fights fell through. Prior to that win, Costa pulled a stunt against Marvin Vettori in October 2021 and decided they were going to compete at 205 lb instead of 185 lb during fight week. Undeterred, Vettori still went on to win a five-round decision at the higher weight class. A year before that, Costa got a shot at the belt but was knocked out by Israel Adesanya in the second round, after winning his first five UFC fights. Costa hasn’t been very active since 2017, fighting just once a year from 2018 to 2022 and then not at all in 2023. He hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2018 when he finished Uriah Hall in the second round. All six of Costa’s UFC wins have come against struggling and/or aging opponents, many of whom were at the tailend of their careers. He made his 2017 UFC debut against then 35-year-old Garreth McLellan who came in having lost three of his last four fights and has now lost five of his last six with three of those losses ending in KOs. Then Costa faced Oluwale Bamgbose, who was 1-2 in the UFC at the time and finished his UFC career 1-4 with three KO losses. Next Costa took on a 34-year-old Johny Hendricks in his final UFC fight. Hendricks had lost four of his previous five matches. Following the win over Hendricks, Costa defeated Uriah Hall, who had lost three of his last four fights with two R1 KOs coming into the fight and is now retired. Costa’s next win was in a close 2019 decision against a 42-year-old Yoel Romero, who came in having lost two of his last three and Costa’s last win was against a 37-year-old Rockhold, who’s lost three straight with his last win coming in 2017.
Now 14-2 as a pro, Costa has 11 wins by KO, one submission, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out once and has one decision loss. Costa finished nine straight opponents in the first round to start his MMA career, but his last seven UFC fights all made it to round two, with four ending in second round knockouts (3-1) and three going the distance (2-1). He’s only been past the second round three times in his career, but all of those were in his last four fights.
Overall, Costa is a high-volume power puncher with 12 of his 14 wins coming early. All of those finishes ended in the first two rounds. He averages 6.50 SSL/min and 6.38 SSA/min. He’s also a BJJ black belt, but only landed three takedowns on four attempts in the UFC (75% accuracy). He has a solid 79% takedown defense and has only been taken down 5 times on 24 attempts in his eight UFC fights. Obviously it will be important to monitor Costa closely on the scale after his past shenanigans.
Fight Prediction:
Costa will have a 1” height advantage, but Whittaker will have a ” reach advantage. Costa is a year younger than the 33-year-old Whittaker.
Whittaker holds advantages everywhere outside of power in this matchup and we expect him to come in with a smart game plan and pick Costa apart over the course of 15 minutes. The larger Octagon favors Whittaker, who will want to control the distance and avoid getting backed up against the cage. Whittaker says he wants to find a finish, but we’ll believe it when we see it and it’s been seven years since he put anyone away early. The only way we see him ending this early is if Costa completely gasses out and finishes himself, which isn’t impossible and he has shown suspect cardio in the past. Whittaker by decision is the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Robert Whittaker DEC” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Whittaker has only averaged 71 DraftKings points in his six UFC three-round decision wins, failing to top 78 points in any of those. While he has been mixing in a little more wrestling lately, he’s still reliant on landing a finish to score well, and the last time he got anyone out of there early was in 2017. Obviously he continues to face one really tough opponent after the next as he hangs out at the top of the 185 lb division, but we don’t see that changing anytime soon. Costa has only been finished once in his career and has a ton of power, so Whittaker will need to be careful, especially early on. Costa also has a solid 79% takedown defense, which will make it tougher for Whittaker to dominate on the ground. So despite Whittaker’s claims that he’s looking for a finish and wants to hurt Costa, we’re expecting to see the normal patient Whittaker who masterfully outlands his way to a decision win and fails to score well in DFS. However, Costa does average a slate-leading 6.38 SSA/min and has been there to be hit in the past. The one other reason to consider playing him is his low ownership, which is especially useful on this smaller slate. So you almost have to have some exposure in tournaments if you’re building more than a handful of lineups and then just hope that Costa looks bad after the long layoff and gasses out. The odds imply Whittaker has a 68% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Costa has averaged 97 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with four of those ending in knockouts. However, his last two wins both went the distance, scoring 86 and 87 DraftKings points respectively, and he hasn’t finished anybody since 2018. He hasn’t competed since August 2022 and his current form remains to be seen. He made a career out of beating opponents who were past their prime and lost two of his last three fights as he moved up the food chain. Now he’ll face the perennial top contender in Robert Whittaker and there aren’t many tougher matchups than this in the division. While Whittaker is coming off a knockout loss, that was against the current champ who has been beating everybody. While Costa could theoretically serve as a value play in a decision win, we’re not convinced he has the skills or cardio to beat Whittaker over three rounds and we’re treating Costa as a KO or bust option in a bad matchup. The odds imply Costa has a 32% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Alexander Volkanovski
16th UFC Fight (13-2)Last October, Volkanovski made the bold choice to step in on a week and a half’s notice up a weight class to get a rematch against Islam Makhachev. The gamble didn’t pay off and Volkanovski got knocked out in the first round with a head kick, which is the first time Volkanovski has been finished since 2013. The circumstances for him coming into that short notice fight couldn’t have been much worse, as he was coming off surgery, just had a baby, and said he was drinking every day, so he was not at all prepared when he got the call. And unlike the first time they fought, it was Volkanovski who had to travel into enemy territory for the rematch. So in hindsight, it isn’t shocking that we saw the worst performance to date from Volkanovski, because he also had his worst preparation. He originally faced Makhachev last February in Australia with a full camp to prepare and exceeded expectations as he took him to a close decision, but still ultimately lost. That snapped a 22-fight winning streak for Volkanovski that spanned all the way back to 2013, when he got knocked out in the third round of a 170 lb match in his fourth pro fight. Volkanovski has never lost a fight at 145 lb and the only opponent to beat him at 155 lb was Makhachev. In between his two losses to Makhachev at 155 lb, Volkanovski dropped back down to 145 lb to defend his belt against Yair Rodriguez. Volkanovski made that look easy, as he took Rodriguez down seven times and beat him on the mat before finishing him with ground and pound in round three. Volkanovski then had elbow surgery immediately after the win to fix an injury that he apparently had going into the fight. While Volkanovski’s last two fights both ended in KO/TKOs, six of his previous seven fights went the distance. His only two finishes since 2018 were a fourth round TKO against The Korean Zombie and his third round TKO against Rodriguez.
Now 26-3 as a pro, Volkanovski has 13 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and 10 decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice (R3 2013 & R1 2023) and has one decision loss. While his last fight ended in round one, Volkanovski’s previous 14 UFC fights all made it to round two, with 11 seeing the third round, and six of his last eight making it to the championship rounds. Nine of his 15 UFC fights went the distance (8-1), while he has three second round TKOs, one in round three, and another in round four. After starting his career at 170 lb, Volkanovski dropped down to 155 lb in 2014 and then all the way down to 145 lb later that same year. He bounced between 145 lb and 155 lb until settling in at 145 lb following his 2016 UFC debut at 155 lb. The only two times he competed at 155 lb since 2016 were in his losses to Makhachev, and Volkanovski has never lost a fight at 145 lb.
This will be Volkanovski’s 9th straight title fight, with five of his previous eight ending in decisions (4-1). His other three all ended in KO/TKOs, with a first round loss and wins in the third and fourth rounds. He also had six fights scheduled to go five rounds prior to joining the UFC, but finished all six of those opponents early, with four first round finishes and two in round four. So overall, he’s 12-2 in five-round fights in his career and 6-2 in the UFC.
Overall, Volkanovski is insanely well-rounded and has no weaknesses in his game. He can strike, he can wrestle, he’s insanely durable, and he has a never ending gas tank. He’s a BJJ black belt and started training in Greco-Roman Wrestling as a kid before switching to rugby for a while before fully committing to MMA. In his 15 UFC fights, Volkanovski landed 30 of his 79 takedown attempts (37.97% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on just 12 of their 40 attempts (70% defense). He’s a tough guy to control on the mat and even when he has been taken down he’s done a great job of returning to his feet or reversing positions. Only Makhachev was able to control him for more than 99 seconds in any of his UFC fights. Volkanovski averages a ridiculous 6.19 SSL/min and just 3.42 SSA/min, and outlanded his first 14 UFC opponents in significant strikes before finishing behind in his recent loss. Volkanovski has bounced between 145 lb and 155 lb for his last four fights and will now be moving back down to 145 lb here, so it will be important to see how he looks on the scale.
Ilia Topuria
7th UFC Fight (6-0)Topuria recently saw the judges for just the second time in his career, but it was arguably his most impressive performance to date, as he showed he had the ability to go five rounds and rely on his boxing to win a striking battle against a dangerous opponent like Josh Emmett. It did seem like Topuria was trying to pace himself in that match, as he didn’t even attempt a takedown until the fifth round and slowly increased his striking output in each of the first four rounds landing 21 significant strikes in round one, 30 in round two, 37 in round three, and 56 in round four. He set a very manageable pace that allowed him to preserve his cardio and Emmett obliged as he’s more of a counter power puncher who never looked to engage in any wrestling of his own. Prior to that, Topuria submitted Bryce Mitchell in the second round of a December 2022 fight, after moving up to 155 lb for the first and only time to knock out Jai Herbert in the second round. Herbert actually dropped Topuria in the first round and if Topuria hadn’t been able to take Herbert down to buy time to recover, he likely would have gotten finished on the feet. However, he was able to use his grappling to buy time, and then he violently sent Herbert into another dimension early in round two with a devastating combination of punches. That came just after Topuria landed a pair of first round knockouts against two grapplers in Ryan Hall and Damon Jackson, after winning a decision over Youssef Zalal in his 2020 UFC debut. While Topuria did take that fight on short notice, he was absolutely exhausted in the third round and could barely breath after the fight. That was notably the first time he had ever even seen the third round after finishing all eight of his pre-UFC fights in under eight minutes.
Now 14-0 as a pro, Topuria has four wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and two decision victories. Nine of his 12 finishes occurred in the first round, with the other three ending in round two. He’s never finished anybody beyond eight and a half minutes. While his last early win ended in a submission, his previous four finishes all came by knockout. Topuria has only seen the third round twice in his career. Topuria competed some at 135 lb early in his career, but has been at 145 lb since 2019, other than the one fight he took up at 155 lb in 2022.
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Topuria’s career and second in the UFC. His first fight scheduled to go five rounds was with Cage Warriors and he landed a first round submission in 99 seconds. He then won a five-round decision in his lone UFC five-round fight.
Overall, Topuria is a well rounded BJJ black belt with dangerous grappling and dynamite in his hands. He’s still just 27 years old, and appears to be constantly improving, showing improvements to both his boxing and his cardio in his last fight. It’s been eight months since we last saw him, so we could see the best version yet of him on Saturday. Despite only being 5’7”, it looks like he cuts a lot of weight to get down to 145 lb. That caused him to drop out of a 145 lb UFC fight during weigh-ins once in the past and the tougher cut could impact both his cardio and durability. It’s easy to write off cardio concerns by saying he went five-rounds in his last fight, but he was the one setting the pace in that matchup and we also didn’t see any wrestling until the fifth round, which had to have been by design. In his six UFC fights, he landed 9 of his 16 takedown attempts (56.3% accuracy), although five of those came in his UFC debut and he’s only landed four takedowns in his last five fights. He has an elite 92.9% takedown defense and has only been taken down once on 14 opponent attempts. Topuria is someone to watch closely at weigh-ins as he’s struggled with cutting weight in the past.
Fight Prediction:
Topuria will have a 1” height advantage, but Volkanovski will have a 2” reach advantage. Topuria is eight years younger than the 35-year-old Volkanovski.
This is an exciting matchup that will test Volkanovski’s ability to bounce back from a knockout loss, while also showing just how good Topuria really is. Volkanovski has been absolutely dominant at 145 lb, to the point that he got bored and moved up to 155 lb to find a challenge. Meanwhile, Topuria has only fought two guys in the top 15 and none that are currently ranked in the top six of the 145 lb division. He was only able to jump the line to get a title shot because Volkanovski had already wiped out the rest of the division. So it does seem like Topuria is getting slightly rushed into his first title shot, but he made a strong case for himself with how good he looked against Emmett. The biggest question we have is how Topuria’s cardio will hold up in a more uptempo fight and when he’s potentially forced to wrestle more. He’s never shown the ability to go more than two hard rounds of wrestling and Volkanovski is an absolute cardio machine who has also shown he can hang on the mats with dangerous grapplers. We like Volkanovski’s chances of wearing Topuria down with a combination of striking and wrestling and then finishing him in the third or fourth round via TKO.
Our favorite bet here is “Alexander Volkanovski ML” at -118.
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DFS Implications:
Volkanovski will be competing in his ninth straight title fight here (6-2), as he moves back down from 155 lb to 145 lb. In his six 145 lb title fight wins, he averaged a ridiculous 119 DraftKings points, scoring 114 or more points in the last four of those and 133 or more in three of them. While we’ve seen Volkanovski look human in his two losses to Makhachev at 155 lb, he’s been running through everybody with ease at 145 lb. His elite combination of striking, wrestling, cardio, and intelligence makes it incredibly difficult for anyone his size to be competitive against him. While Topuria is also very well rounded and incredibly dangerous on both the feet and the mat, he still needs to prove he has the cardio to compete in a five-round war where the pace is really being pushed. Volkanovski will surely recognize that and should be looking to weaponize his cardio here, which is exactly what we want for DFS. Recency bias drove the price all the way down to a pick’em on this fight around the time salaries were released on DraftKings, although we then saw it swing back in Volkanovski’s favor early in fight week. As the cheapest favorite on the card, it’s hard to see a world where Volkanovski comes out victorious and gets left out of winning lineups and his high ownership is completely warranted and still probably won’t even be as high as his actual chances of cracking the optimal. He’s the best fighter on the card—maybe in the world—and will likely be the highest scorer on the slate if he wins. If you fade him, you’re betting on him either to lose or for this to end in a No Contest. The odds imply Volkanovski has a 53% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Topuria has averaged 103 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, scoring 100 or more in each of his last five victories. He’s coming off a career-best 126 point performance in the first five-round decision win of his career, which was the first time he had been to the championship rounds and only the second time he had even seen round three. That does leave a lot of question marks surrounding his cardio and he was allowed to dictate a more manageable pace in his recent victory. It’s hard to imagine that Topuria will be able to match Volkanovski’s pace for five rounds, which seems to leave Topuria reliant on landing a finish in the first half of this match if he wants to pull off the upset against the greatest Featherweight fighter on the planet. Volkanovski is now 35 years old and just got knocked out by Makhachev, but he’s also never lost a fight at 145 lb and has been steamrolling the competition. So despite how dangerous Topuria is, it would be pretty stunning to see him finish Volkanovski. With Volkanovski coming off his worst performance and Topuria coming off his best, we expect recency bias to drive up Topuria’s ownership and the majority of the field will have heavy exposure to both sides of this fight. Being underweight on Topuria looks like the most profitable strategy, but if he does win, he almost surely ends up in the optimal lineup. The odds imply Topuria has a 47% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
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Here's our top play on the house! For the rest of our PrizePicks plays, check out the DFS Cheat Sheet in our premium DFS content on: patreon.com/mmadfs.
Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
Alexander Volkanovski OVER 95.5 Pts
