The Sheet

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #13

Esteban Ribovics

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career, Ribovics dropped a decision to Loik Radzhabov in his recent UFC debut. Radzhabov took Ribovics down 11 times on 21 attempts with over seven and a half minutes of control time. Prior to that, Ribovics finished his first 11 opponents with the last of those wins coming in a first round knockout on DWCS. His last three finishes all ended in quick knockouts in 90 seconds or less, with two of those coming in the opening 30 seconds of fights. Five of his last six wins ended in round one and after looking to grapple more early in his career, he seems content with relying on knockouts lately.

Now 11-1 as a pro, Ribovics has six wins by KO/TKO and five submissions. Six of his wins have come in round one, one ended in round two, and four occurred in round three. His last five victories all ended in knockouts, while he landed three straight kimura finishes from 2016 to 2019.

Overall, Ribovics is an aggressive brawler who’s all offense and no defense. He comes out swinging and the only defensive grappling technique he knows is to look for kimuras. His takedown defense has looked bad, but he’s done a decent job of using kimura attempts to reverse positions on the mat and quickly return to his feet. He has also been training at Kill Cliff FC and is still just 27 years old, so he should be making improvements between every fight.

Kamuela Kirk

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Moving up to 155 lb for the first time in the UFC, Kirk is 16 months removed from a second round submission loss to Damon Jackson. Prior to that loss, Kirk won a decision in his short notice UFC debut against Makwan Amirkhani. Kirk originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2019 where he went up against a really tough Billy Quarantillo. Kirk started off great in that fight, as he controlled Quarantillo on the ground for nearly the entire first round. However, he gassed out in round two and then got finished in a third round TKO. Kirk had been booked to fight Ribovics back in March, but pulled out saying that he “fractured his lower back.”

Now 12-5 as a pro, Kirk has five KO/TKO wins, six submissions, and one decision victory, which came in his short notice UFC debut against a fellow gasser in Makwan Amirkhani. Nine of his 11 finishes occurred in round one, with the other two ending in round two. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has three decision defeats. Both of his early losses came beyond the nine minute mark and he tends to fade as fights go on. It sounds like that’s part of the reason why he’s moving up to 155 lb now, after fighting the vast majority of his career at 145 lb. He’s has two 155 lb fights in the past, both of which he won early, but both were against low-level opponents.

Overall, Kirk is fairly well rounded and is a BJJ black belt, but has relied more on his striking as of late. He hasn’t attempted a takedown in either of his UFC fights, but did land two of his five attempts on DWCS back in 2019. Between those three fights, his opponents have gotten him down on 7 of their 15 attempts (53.3% defense). His cardio has been one of his main weaknesses to this point, but he won’t be cutting as much weight now that he’s moving up to 155 lb, which could help with that. It’s been 16 months since he last competed and he said he fractured his lower back just four months ago, both of which are concerning for his outlook. He hasn’t faced any legitimate 155 lb fighters in his career, so it will be interesting to see how his chin and takedown defense holds up against larger and more powerful opponents.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’10” but Kirk will have a 6” reach advantage.

These two had originally been scheduled to face each other back in March for Ribovics’ UFC debut, but Kirk dropped out, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for one another. Ribovics looks like the more dangerous finisher and Kirk has lots of red flags, as he moves up a weight class, hasn’t fought in 16 months, has been known to gas out, and is coming off a fracture lower back. So it’s interesting that the line has moved so heavily in favor of Kirk and Ribovics looks like the much more dangerous fighter. Perhaps Kirk’s cardio will hold up better now that he’s not cutting as much weight, but that’s not a given and he’ll also be carrying more weight now. We like Ribovics’ chances of finishing him, most likely by knockout, but with a slight chance he could lock up the kimura he loves to go for.

Our favorite bet here is “Ribovics KO” at +185.

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DFS Implications:

Ribovics is coming off a decision loss in his UFC debut and has also seen the line move heavily against him, both of which should help him to fly under the radar here in DFS. He came into the UFC with a 100% finishing rate, albeit against dubious competition on the Argentinian regional scene. Now he’s facing an opponent who got finished in his last fight, hasn’t competed in 16 months, dropped out of a March matchup due to a fractured back, has historically gassed out late in fights, and is moving up a weight class. All of those red flags on Kirk’s side of things translate to green lights for Ribovics, who is the second cheapest favorite on the card. The odds imply Ribovics has a 58% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.

Kirk is littered with red flags that the betting markets appear to be ignoring. While he won a decision in his UFC debut, he only scored 58 DraftKings points in that fight, before getting finished in the second round of his last match. Now he’s moving up a weight class and hasn’t fought in 16 months, in addition to just recovering from a fractured back. None of that is encouraging, and the line moving in his favor should drive his ownership way up on a slate with so few appealing underdogs. He’s been known to gas in the past, although perhaps cutting less weight will help with that—or maybe it won’t, who knows. He generally relies on landing finishes and has gone just 1-3 in the four decisions he’s been to, and now he’s facing an opponent who’s never been finished. So it’s hard to get excited about Kirk’s outlook here, although it’s tough to find any really appealing three-round dogs on this card. The odds imply Kirk has a 42% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #12

Jesus Aguilar

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from a first round submission loss in his UFC debut, Aguilar tried to go for his patented guillotine early in that fight against a really tough Tatsuro Taira, but was unable to complete it and then got armbarred late in the round. Prior to that, he was able to complete a guillotine in the third round on DWCS, and had won eight straight fights, with six of those wins ending in submissions and five by guillotine. The only time he’s required the judges in his last six matches came in a 2021 grappling-heavy decision win. His only other pro fight not to end in a submission was a 2018 split decision victory.

Now 8-2 as a pro, Aguilar has six wins by submission and two decision victories. Five of his six submission wins have come by guillotine and his last three finishes have all occurred in the later rounds. Both of his losses ended in first round submissions, one in his 2015 pro debut, and the other in his recent UFC debut.

Overall, Aguilar looks like a one-trick pony who tries to win every fight by guillotine. He likes to take opponents down and then look for guillotines during the scrambling exchanges as his opponents try to return to their feet. He has just a 62” reach, the shortest of any male fighter in the UFC. His wrestling doesn’t look that great, nor does his striking, and while being good at one thing may be enough on the regional scene to win fights, it’s hard to see Aguilar finding much success against legitimate competition at the UFC level.

Shannon Ross

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Coming off a quick 59 second TKO loss in his UFC debut against a really tough Kleydson Rodrigues, Ross has now been knocked down four times in his last 10 minutes and 21 seconds of action. The three previous knockdowns came on DWCS, where Ross got knocked out late in the second round against Vinicius Salvador. Following that loss, Ross discovered that he had competed with a ruptured appendix and blood poisoning, which the UFC thought was so cool they gave him a contract anyways. Ross has been finished in the first two rounds in three of his last four fights now, as he also got submitted by Steve Erceg in 2020 on the Australian regional scene. Ross’ only win since 2019 was a 2020 decision against a 6-3 opponent who has now lost four straight fights and appears to be retired.

Now 12-7 as a pro, Ross has six wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. He has three first round finishes, and two in each of rounds two and three. Four of his last five finishes have occurred in the later rounds. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has three decision losses. Three of his four early losses ended in round one, with the other coming in round two.

Overall, Ross is an aggressive brawler who also has the ability to mix in some wrestling and is a BJJ purple belt. He’s from Sydney, Australia and just got embarrassed in his UFC debut in front of his home Australian crowd, so we’ll see how he bounces back from the defeat. He said he finally quit his full time job as a mechanic after that fight, so this will be the first time he’s been fully dedicated to fighting in his career. He won both the Eternal MMA and Nitro MMA Flyweight belts on the Australian regional scene, but most/all of his wins have come against a lower level of competition.

Fight Prediction:

Ross will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.

This is just good matchmaking, as both of these two are low-level fighters who will struggle to find many wins in the UFC. You might as well face them off against each other to figure out who the crap de la crap is and at least let one of them enjoy a rare UFC win. Ross’ biggest weakness has been his chin, but Aguilar has never knocked anybody out and is focussed on looking for guillotines, so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to capitalize on Ross’ glaring weakness. Meanwhile Aguilar has also been prone to getting submitted himself, but Ross only has one career submission win. So the pieces don’t exactly line up perfectly, which has the potential to result in this going the distance, but both guys have been finished in the majority of their losses. If this ends early, it will probably be from an Aguilar guillotine, but if it goes the distance, Ross will have a good chance of outlanding his way to victory if he can keep the fight standing. Both of these two are so low level that it’s hard to have much confidence in either guy, but if Ross can simply avoid getting guillotined, we’ll say he wins a close decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Ross DEC” at +450.

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DFS Implications:

Aguilar is a one-dimensional guillotine specialist with unimpressive striking and wrestling. After shooting his shot but being unable to complete the guillotine attempt early in his recent UFC debut, he got submitted himself and scored just a single point in the match. Being a guillotine specialist isn’t ideal for DFS scoring, as it’s generally the lowest scoring way to land a finish. The guy also has t-rex arms that will make it tougher for him to hang on the feet, but does get a dream matchup here against an opponent who’s been knocked down four times in basically his last 10 minutes of action. Whether or not Aguilar can capitalize on that is a different story. However, that does at least present some additional scoring upside for him, and we’re generally looking to target any fight that Ross is in. The odds imply Aguilar has a 56% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Ross is an aggressive brawler who’s fighting style is perfectly suited for DFS production, for both him and his opponent. Four of his last five fights have ended early and he’s constantly looking to engage in high-volume striking exchanges. He’ll also mix in wrestling at times, but hasn’t looked great at holding opponents down, which is perfect when it comes to DFS as it keeps the action moving, while tacking on takedowns. Ross gets knocked down every few minutes in fights and his chin has looked terrible, making him a tough guy to trust. However, he’s facing an opponent who has the shortest arms on the UFC roster and who has never landed a knockout in his career. So Ross should be at less risk than normal of getting knocked out here, but Aguilar will constantly be looking for guillotine opportunities. On a slate void of many live three-round underdogs, Ross is one of the few with a realistic shot at winning. The line has moved in his favor throughout the week, which should bump up his ownership some as he’s now underpriced. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Cameron Saaiman

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Coming off a majority decision win over Mana Martinez, Saaiman dominated the fight but was deducted a point in the first round after he landed back-to-back low blows. He nearly lost another point in round three for an eye poke and fouls have been a real issue for him in his two UFC fights. He landed a really blatant illegal knee in his UFC debut that would have resulted in a DQ if his opponent hadn’t agreed to continue fighting after explaining to Chris Tognoni that he in fact was “not a bitch.” Saaiman ironically then went on to finish Steven Koslow with a series of legal knees in the third round of that fight. Saaiman landed another third round knockout just before that on DWCS, although that also came against a lower-level opponent who was quickly fading. Saaiman has only required the judges twice in his short career—a five-round title fight win just before he went on DWCS and in his last match.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Saaiman has five KO/TKO wins, one submission, and two decision victories. Four of his last five finishes occurred in the later rounds, with his last four matches all making it to the third round. His six early wins have been split evenly across the first three rounds, but his fights have been getting progressively longer as he’s faced tougher competition.

Overall, Saaiman is still really young at just 22 years old, but is a teammate of Dricus Du Plessis and started training with him as a young teenager. Saaiman only turned pro in December 2019 and is still developing both physically and as a fighter, but he throws good, snappy kicks and has decent hands. He doesn’t have a very imposing frame but seems to make the most of what he’s got, and will mix in takedowns and look for both ground and pound and submissions on the mat. He also loves looking for guillotine chokes and does a good job of using them to reverse positions and gain top position on the ground. He also has great cardio, which has allowed him to take over late in matches. Given his age, he should be making improvements between every fight and he’s definitely a kid to keep an eye on.

Terrence Mitchell

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Mitchell will be making his UFC debut on 16 days’ notice after Christian Rodriguez dropped out of this fight. He turned pro all the way back in 2009, but has basically spent his entire career on the highly suspect Alaskan regional scene. The one time he fought outside of Alaska was when he went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, but that was short lived as he got knocked out by Kai Kara-France 30 seconds into his first fight. After getting knocked out there, he took the rest of 2016 and all of 2017 off before returning to the Alaska Fighting Championship for one match in 2018, where he won by first round submission. However, he took the next 4+ years off, before returning in 2022 up a weight class at 135 lb. He won by DQ in his return, before notching a pair of first round submissions in early 2023.

Now 15-2 as a pro, Mitchell has seven wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and one DQ victory. All of his wins came in under six minutes. He’s officially only been knocked out once (R1 2010), but also got knocked out in the first round on TUF in 2016. He also lost the only decision he’s ever been to. Mitchell started his career at 125 lb, before moving up to 135 lb when he resumed his career in 2022.

Overall, Mitchell is a tall, skinny/chinny fighter who has only been past the second round once in his career and rarely makes it out of round one. He’s pretty well-rounded, with his main issue being his suspect durability. He uses his length decently well as he mixes in leg kicks, but has been looking to get fights to the mat and hunt for submissions lately. He’s been fighting such a low level of competition that it’s hard to truly evaluate his skills, but the one time he faced a legitimate opponent he got immediately knocked out. In fairness to him, that was seven years ago, but he hasn’t been fighting much since then and returned to the terrible Alaska regional scene afterwards. We have no reason to think he’s made any dramatic changes based on what we’ve seen. His uptempo pace and kill or get killed style should make for exciting fights.

Fight Prediction:

Mitchell will have a 2” height advantage and 7” reach advantage, while being 11 years older than the 22-year-old Saaiman.

This sets up as a fun fight between two guys who are always looking for finishes. Our expectations for Mitchell are low based on the level of competition he’s been facing in Alaska, but he has shown some finishing ability, at least against the bums he’s been facing. His biggest concern is his durability, and he seems to have a terrible chin. However, all of his knockout losses occurred at 125 lb, whereas he’s now at 135 lb. That could help him if he was cutting a ton of weight before, and at 5’10” you have to imagine he was. With that said, we still like Saaiman’s chances of knocking him out, it’s just a matter of when. Both of Mitchell’s knockout losses came in the first round, while four of Saaiman’s last five finishes occurred in the later rounds. It’s just a question of whether or not Mitchell can survive the opening five minutes, which remains to be seen. We’re generally more excited about Saaiman’s finishing ability in the later rounds, once his opponents begin to slow down while he’s still firing on all cylinders. However, if he was ever going to get an earlier finish this would probably be the time. With that said, Mitchell has been looking to grapple from the start lately, which could slow Saaiman down enough for this fight to make it to round two, and we’ll say he knocks Mitchell out in the later rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Cameron Saaiman R2 or R3 KO” at +460.

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DFS Implications:

Saaiman is the 22-year-old protege of Dricus Du Plessis and is decently well-rounded. He’ll mix in takedowns, and has solid striking volume at 5.39 SSL/min. He was able to score a really solid 118 DraftKings points in a late third round TKO in his UFC debut, although on closer examination you’ll see that score was propped up by a ridiculous six reversals. If you take those away he would have been looking at just 88 points, which coincidentally is exactly what he would have scored in his previous third round knockout win on DWCS. With that said, he was able to score 105 DraftKings points in his recent decision win and his ability to keep a solid 15 minute pace and dominate opponents in the third round is encouraging for his scoring potential. At his high price tag, he’ll need a real ceiling performance to end up in tournament winning lineups, but this looks like a perfect matchup to achieve that. He’ll also be lower owned than some of the other expensive options, adding to his tournament appeal. The odds imply Saaiman has an 81% chance to win, a 66% chance to land a finish, and a 44% chance it comes in round one.

Mitchell’s history of landing finishes is somewhat encouraging for his scoring upside, but it’s crucial to take his record with a grain of salt based on the extremely low level of competition he’s been facing on the Alaskan regional scene. The one time he faced a legitimate opponent was when he went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016 and he got immediately knocked out by Kai Kara-France. Mitchell has only fought four times since that 2016 loss, adding to his uncertainty. He’s never won a fight that lasted longer than six minutes, which also leaves question marks surrounding his cardio. He’s a massive underdog for a reason and he appears reliant on landing an early hail mary finish to pull off the upset. The odds imply he has a 19% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

Vitor Petrino

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Coming off a rare decision win in his UFC debut, Petrino made it to the judges for just the second time in his career, after landing a second round knockout on DWCS to punch his ticket to the big show. Just before going on DWCS, he knocked out former UFC fighter Gadzhimurad Antigulov, also in the second round. After not even attempting a takedown on DWCS, Petrino landed seven of his nine takedown attempts in his last fight with over six minutes of control time. He also got taken down five times himself, in a surprisingly wrestling-heavy fight. Prior to his recent decision win, Petrino had finished five straight opponents and had only been past the nine minute mark in a fight once in his career.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Petrino has six wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. The first four knockouts of his career came in round one, while the last two ended in round two. Four of his eight career wins came against opponents with a combined 1-23 pro record, and two more of his victories were against the same opponent, who he defeated for the second time on DWCS.

Overall, Petrino is a 25-year-old Brazilian kickboxer who has added a lot of muscle over the course of his career and has heavy hands. He’s the most dangerous early on in fights and tends to slow down some in the back half of matches. While he hasn’t looked like any sort of submission threat, he will look for takedowns followed by ground and pound. Between his recent UFC debut and his DWCS match, he landed 7 of his 9 takedown attempts (77.8% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 18 attempts (66.7% defense).

Marcin Prachnio

8th UFC Fight (3-4)

Prachnio has now impressively gone four fights without getting knocked out, after he started his UFC career with three straight round one KO losses. Three of his last four fights have gone the distance (2-1), with the one exception being a 2021 R2 KO win over a terrible Isaac Villanueva, which is the only time Prachnio has finished anybody in the UFC. Prachnio most recently won a bizarre decision over William Knight, where Knight just stood there for 15 minutes absorbing kicks, with Prachnio finishing ahead 79-8 in striking. It was one of the most uninspired performances of all time from Knight and he was immediately cut afterwards. Prior to that win, Prachnio lost a grappling-heavy decision to Philipe Lins, where he was taken down four times by Lins and controlled for nearly five and a half minutes.

Now 16-6 as a pro, Prachnio has 11 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. All but one of his finishes came prior to joining the UFC and we’ve yet to ever see him finish a UFC caliber opponent. Eleven of his 12 finishes came in round one, with the other ending in the opening minute of round two. He’s also been knocked out four times and has two decision defeats. Three of his KO losses also occurred in round one, with the other ending in round three against Aleksandar Rakic in 2014 before they both joined the UFC.

Overall, Prachnio is a pure striker and has never landed a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts. He doesn’t have crazy power, but likes to throw a high number of kicks, which was clearly evident in his last fight where 63 of the 79 strikes he landed were kicks. His durability is obviously one of his biggest issues and he’s very prone to getting knocked out, although in fairness to him it’s been almost three years since anyone put him away early. He’s been taken down six times on 16 opponent attempts (62.5% defense).

Fight Prediction:

Prachnio will have a 1” height advantage, but Petrino will have a 3” reach advantage and is nine years younger than the 34-year-old Prachnio.

Petrino seems ideally suited to get Prachnio’s KO losing streak back on track and we’re not convinced that Prachnio’s chin is suddenly amazing. Petrino throws violent punches and can also take Prachnio down if he chooses, the only concern is that Petrino could gas out late in the second round if he’s unable to find a finish before then. That would open the door for Prachnio to win a close decision, but we still like Petrino’s chances of knocking Prachnio out in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Petrino R1 or R2 KO” at -105.

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DFS Implications:

Petrino is a powerful striker who remains undefeated and has knocked out six of his eight opponents. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s been knocked out in four of his six career losses, including three times in the first round of UFC fights. There’s no reason to think Petrino can’t land another early knockout here, and he also showed some serious wrestling upside in his recent UFC debut, where he landed seven takedowns in a decision win. With the help of four reversals, he was able to score 116 DraftKings points even without a finish, but we generally don’t expect him to score that well without a finish. He’s another one of these second-tier expensive options on this slate that has the potential to crack tournament winning lineups with a real ceiling performance, but could easily get priced out of the optimal even with an early finish. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 36% chance it comes in round one.

Prachnio has put up one usable score in seven UFC appearances, which was when he scored 104 DraftKings points against human punching bag Ike Villanueva, so it should include an asterisk on his DraftKings scoresheet. His other two UFC wins both went the distance and only scored 62 and 72 points on DraftKings. He’s never landed a takedown in the UFC, so relies entirely on his striking to score points. He throws a ton of kicks, which allows him to put up decent striking numbers, but he hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat and now he’s going against a dangerous undefeated opponent who will likely knock him out. So it’s hard to get excited about playing him, although all the dogs on this slate are pretty terrible, which keeps him somewhat in play. The odds imply he has a 33% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Jimmy Crute

9th UFC Fight (4-3-1)

These two opted to run it back after they fought to a draw this past February. That fight would have been a split decision win for Menifield, but he was deducted a point for a fence grab in the third round, resulting in the draw. Both guys gassed out in the fight, and it’s amazing that it made it the full 15 minutes, as Crute was running on fumes and absorbing damage from the first round on, but still managed to fight through exhaustion with his home crowd behind him. Menifield took a little longer to gas, but once he did his knockout threat was essentially gone. After a 4-1 start to his UFC career, Crute is now 0-2-1 in his last three fights and hasn’t won a match since October 2020. He endured a 14 month layoff leading up to his last fight after undergoing ACL surgery following back-to-back first round KO/TKO losses. After suffering what looked like a peroneal nerve injury against Anthony Smith that forced a post R1 doctor stoppage, Crute got knocked out in just 48 seconds by Jamahal Hill leading up to his last fight.

Now 12-3-1 as a pro, Crute has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. All three of his career losses have ended in the first round, with two KO/TKOs and one submission. All of those losses occurred in his last six fights and prior to his recent draw he hadn’t been out of the first round in six straight matches. Looking at this entire career, 11 of his 16 career fights have ended in the first round (8-3).

Overall, Crute is a powerful striker, a solid wrestler, and a BJJ black belt. His biggest weakness is his striking defense and he also doesn't have the longest arms, nor is he the quickest fighter in the striking exchanges. However, he has massive power, throws heavy leg kicks, and can dominate opponents with his wrestling. In his eight UFC fights, Crute has landed 18 of his 28 takedown attempts (64.3% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents 4 times on 10 attempts (60% defense).

Alonzo Menifield

11th UFC Fight (6-3-1)

Menifield was nearly able to knock Crute out in that last match, but per usual slowed down after the first round and went into survival mode late in the fight. Prior to that, he notched a pair of first round knockouts against a washed up Misha Cirkunov and a fraudulent Askar Mozharov, after losing a close/questionable decision to William Knight.

Now 13-3-1 as a pro, Menifield has 10 KO/TKOs, two submissions, and one decision win. He’s been knocked out once, with his other two losses both going the distance. Ten of his 12 early wins occurred in round one, with the other two ending in the opening minute of round two. His one early loss also ended in round two. All four of the decisions he’s been to in his career have come in his last eight fights, after his first nine pro matches all ended early. Menifield is just 1-3-1 in fights that have lasted longer than six minutes.

Overall, Menifield came into the UFC as a one-dimensional power puncher with cardio concerns, but has been trying to mix in a little more wrestling lately and fighting more methodically. He failed to land a takedown on four attempts in his first four UFC fights, but has landed four on seven attempts in his last six matches. Looking at his entire nine fight UFC career along with his two DWCS appearances, he’s landed 4 of his 13 takedown attempts (30.8% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents 10 times on 39 attempts (74.4% defense). He generally has a really solid takedown defense, although Crute was able to take him down six times in their last fight. Menifield is a former college, CFL and Arena League football player, and while he has solid power, we’ve seen him slow down some later in fights. He only averages 3.88 SSL/min and and 3.04 SSA/min has only landed more than 56 significant strikes once in his career, which is when he landed 93 in a decision win over Ed Herman.

Fight Prediction:

Crute will have a 2” height advantage, but Menifield will have a 2” reach advantage. Crute is eight years younger than the 35-year-old Menifield.

Following their last fight, Crute said the hand speed of Menifield surprised him, which is what got Crute into trouble in the first round. That element of surprise is no longer there and both guys should know what to expect from the other as they run it back five months after their last fight. Both fighters gassed out in that match, and it would make sense for them each to put more of an effort on preserving their cardio in this one. That could force a much slower start to this one, which is kind of what we’re expecting. We also think Crute will be less willing to stand and trade, where he’ll try to keep his distance until he can set up takedowns. Conversely Menifield will be more concerned with defending takedowns, and we could see very few strikes thrown early on. Menifield has really struggled to win fights beyond the first round, and if Crute can avoid gassing out we like his chances of relying on his wrestling to win this one. A fresher Crute will have a higher chance of landing a finish on the mat, but we picked this fight to go the distance last time and we won’t be surprised to see it happen again. These two are just tough matchups for one another and we’re picking Crute to win by decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Crute DEC” at +600.

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DFS Implications:

Crute always has a massive scoring ceiling as he offers a dangerous combination of striking, wrestling, and finishes. Prior to his recent fight against Menifield, he had never been to the judges in his UFC career, but he did score 63 points in that draw, which would have been good for 93 points had the decision gone his way. While that’s not a huge score, at his cheaper price tag it at least shows the potential for him to sneak into winning lineups even without a finish. With that said, that was a crazy paced fight and after both guys gassed out there we’re expecting to see a slower start here. That could leave Crute more reliant on landing a finish, although you never know what their approach will be and maybe they just let it all hang out once again. That uncertainty leaves Crute with a wide range of potential scoring outcomes, making it trickier to know what to do with him. The odds imply Crute has a 54% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Menifield has been a R1 or bust DFS fighter throughout his career and he has never landed a finish beyond the six minute mark in a fight. He scored just 74 DraftKings points in his lone decision win, but five of his six UFC wins have ended in the opening five minutes. He scored 58 DraftKings points in the recent Draw against Crute, which would have been good for 88 points had the decision gone his way, but he needed to land two knockdowns to even score that well. So he still hasn’t shown much upside when he’s unable to find an early finish, and we’re expecting Crute to be looking to wrestle once again here. That will make it tougher for Menifield to land a ton of volume and leaves him reliant on landing a knockout. He came close to achieving that in their last fight, but we expect Crute to be a little more cautious here, after getting a feel for Menifield in that last one. The odds imply Menifield has a 46% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Yazmin Jauregui

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Jauregui is coming off a second round TKO win over Istela Nunes to keep her undefeated record intact. Nunes was able to drop Jauregui early in the first round, but Jauregui immediately recovered and then landed two knockdowns of her own in her second round, before finishing the fight with ground and pound. Prior to that, Jauregui put on an impressive striking performance in her UFC debut as she won a decision over a tough Iasmin Lucindo. A year to the day before making her UFC debut, Jauregui won three fights in a single night as part of the Last Latina Standing tournament with Combate Global. She won two of those matches by first round knockout after winning a one-round decision in the first leg of the tournament.

Now 10-0 as a pro, Jauregui has seven wins by KO/TKO and three decision victories. One of those decisions was just a single round as it was part of a single-day/multi-fight tournament and she’s only seen the third round twice in her career, with both of those fights going the distance. Five of her seven career knockouts have come in round one with the other two ending in round two. Jauregui made her 2018 pro debut at 125 lb, but dropped down to 115 lb for her second fight, where she’s stayed since.

Overall, Jauregui is an uptempo striker, who’s still just 24 years old and turned pro when she was 19. She’s primarily a boxer, but will mix in takedowns at times, although has yet to land any of her three attempts in the UFC so far. She was also able to defend both of the takedown attempts against her in those two UFC fights. She showed no problem going three hard rounds in her debut, and she looks like an all around solid young prospect who has plenty of time to grow in the division and could be a real problem.

Denise Gomes

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Gomes is fresh off a R2 TKO win over a debuting Bruna Brasil, after losing a decision in her UFC debut against Loma Lookboonmee. Gomes was able to take Brasil down three times and also knock her down as she bullied her way to a finish, after she was the one that got taken down four times in her UFC debut. To Gomes’ credit, she came close to locking up multiple submissions in that fight against Lookboonmee, despite being known as a striker coming in. That loss also came on short notice just three and a half weeks after she secured a UFC contract with a decision win on DWCS. Prior to the decision win on DWCS, Gomes landed a pair of third round TKO wins in her two previous matches. However, she was losing the most recent of those up until the third round and actually got knocked down twice in round two by former UFC fighter Milana Dudieva, who has lost six of her last seven fights and isn’t an exceptional striker.

Now 7-2 as a pro, Gomes has five wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. Her last four knockout wins all occurred in the later rounds and only one of her nine pro fights ended in the first round, which was a TKO in her first pro win against an opponent fighting for the first and only time as a pro. The only time she’s been finished was in a 2017 R2 TKO in her pro debut. She bounced back with six straight wins before suffering the only other loss of her career in a decision in her short notice UFC debut. Gomes made her pro debut at 135 lb in 2017, but after getting knocked out in round two she dropped down to 125 lb for her next two fights. She then moved down to 115 lb for a fight in 2021, before moving back up to 125 lb for her next two matches. She dropped back down to 115 lb when she went on DWCS, where she has stayed in the UFC. Three of her four 115 lb fights went the distance (2-1), while four of her five knockout wins came at 125 lb.

Overall, Gomes is an aggressive striker with a Muay Thai background, who has shown recent improvements to her grappling. She’s struggled some with being taken down, and between her DWCS appearance and her two UFC fights, she’s been taken five times on 10 attempts (50% defense). While she didn’t attempt any takedowns on DWCS and failed to land any of her six attempts in her UFC debut, she landed all three of her takedown attempts in her last match. She’s also happy to throw down in a brawl and definitely shows up to fight. She’s still just 23 years old and should be continuing to improve, although it’s been less than three months since we last saw her, so she hasn’t had a ton of time to add to her game.

Fight Prediction:

Jauregui will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is a year older than the 23-year-old Gomes.

This should be a fun fight to watch as these two throw down in an action-packed affair. They’re both aggressive strikers who will mix in takedown attempts, but Jauregui has been the more impressive of the two and is the more technical striker. They’re both coming off R2 TKO wins and have landed knockouts in the majority of their wins, but we kind of like this one to go the distance despite the expected violent nature of the match. Jauregui has never lost a fight, let alone been finished, while Gomes’ only early loss came in her pro debut, which was all the way up at 135 lb. Neither one of them will quit, nor has either of them ever submitted anybody. So someone may need to get put all the way out for this to end early and we don’t see a ton of knockouts in the 115 lb women’s division. We’ll say Jauregui wins a decision, but it will be an uncomfortable sweat as these two will both be looking to make a statement in what we expect to be 15 minutes of unabated violence.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -135.

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DFS Implications:

Jauregui is coming off a slate-breaking 129 point performance in a R2 TKO win that included multiple knockdowns, after she only scored 65 DraftKings points in a decision win in her UFC debut. That shows just how wide her range of scoring outcomes is and it appears she’ll need a finish to have a chance at cracking tournament winning lineups. Despite her recent scoring explosion, we expect her to be low owned as she’s priced just above Volkanovski and not far behind Nickal and Della Maddalena. We’re expecting this to be an uptempo brawl, so if Jauregui does land a well timed finish, she’s certainly capable of outsourcing the other expensive options and ending up in the optimal lineup on both sites. The odds imply Jauregui has a 75% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.

Gomes is also coming off a slate-breaking score in a second round TKO, where she put up 132 DraftKings points. And she also fought to a lower scoring decision in her debut just before that, although she lost that fight. Gomes has always been an aggressive brawler, but has also added more grappling to her game recently, which adds to her scoring potential. While this looks like a really tough matchup for Gomes, we did see Jauregui get dropped early in the first round of her last fight, although she did immediately recover. At Gomes’ cheap price tag, she could still be useful even in a decision win, although pulling off the upset will not be easy as she faces a really solid undefeated opponent in Jauregui. The odds imply Gomes has a 25% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Tatsuro Taira

4th UFC Fight (3-0)

Taira had originally been scheduled to fight Kleydson Rodrigues two weeks ago, but Rodrigues missed weight by three pounds and the fight was canceled. So Taira will now be cutting weight again just weeks later and he had already made weight when that last fight was scrapped.

Still undefeated as a pro, Taira has submitted his last two opponents in the first two rounds, after winning a grappling-heavy decision over Carlos Candelario in his UFC debut. Following that win, Taira locked up a second round submission against CJ Vergara, who was coming off a decision win over Kleydson Rodrigues. Most recently, Taira took on a debuting Jesus Santos Aguilar and after getting stuck in a guillotine for a while to start the fight, he patiently and efficiently secured a submission late in the first round. Before joining the UFC, Taira won all 10 of his career fights on the Japanese regional scene after turning pro when he was just 18 years old.

Now 13-0 as a pro, Taira has three TKO wins, seven submissions, and three decision victories. One of those decision victories came in a two-round fight that actually took place down at 115 lb, which is something you rarely see in men’s professional MMA. The only times Taira has been in fights that lasted longer than 10 minutes were in his UFC debut at 125 lb and a 2020 three-round decision that took place at 135 lb. In between those two decisions, he landed three straight first round submission victories and all seven of his career submission wins have come in under 10 minutes, with six ending in round one. Two of his three TKO wins also came in round one, with the other ending 19 seconds into round two.

Overall, Taira relies mostly on his grappling but isn’t helpless on the feet and throws crisp leg strikes. He’s still just 23 years old and we should see improvements every time he steps inside the Octagon. We’re especially interested to see how he grows as a striker, which is clearly his biggest weakness at the moment. Regardless, he’s a very solid grappler and until he faces an opponent with elite defensive wrestling, we should see Taira find success on the mat. In his three UFC fights, he’s landed 5 of his 14 takedown attempts (35.7% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 2 of their 5 attempts (60% defense).

Edgar Chairez

1st UFC Fight (1-0)

Making his short notice UFC debut following a pair of submission wins, Chairez originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2022, but lost a decision to Clayton Carpenter and was forced to return to the regional scene. Chairez looked decent on the feet in that match and won the first round on all three scorecards, but once he got taken down late in round two, he wasn’t able to do anything off his back. He then got taken down twice more in round three, as Carpenter came back to win a decision. Following that loss, Chairez returned to the Mexican regional scene and locked up a 63 second guillotine against a 37-year-old opponent. He then landed a fourth round submission in a fight he appeared to be losing in his last match. That ending was crazy as he choked his opponent unconscious with a triangle choke but the ref refused to stop the fight, so he then transitioned to an armbar and his opponent seemed to wake up as he was getting his arm bent backwards, and it still took the ref a while longer before finally stopping things when his opponent finally tapped.

Now 10-4 as a pro, Chairez has four wins by KO/TKO and six submission victories. Seven of his 10 finishes came in round one, two ended in round two, and the most recent occurred in round four. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted twice, and has lost both of the decisions he’s been to.

Overall, Chairez looks decent and at 5’7” has good size for the Flyweight division. He’s primarily a striker, but does have some submission skills, although he hasn’t looked great off his back and has struggled to escape that position at times in the past. Chairez trains at Entram Gym but came with Brandon Moreno to train at Glory MMA when Moreno moved there. Based on his connection with Moreno, it makes sense why the UFC brought Chairez in on this card when they needed a short notice replacement.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’7”, but Chairez will have a 2” reach advantage and is four years older than the 23-year-old Taira.

Chairez is stepping into a tough spot for his UFC debut as he comes in on short notice against a very dangerous grappler in Taira. With that said, if Chairez can somehow keep this fight standing, he’s fully capable of winning a striking battle. However, we fully expect Taira to get this fight to the ground, and we saw in Chairez’s DWCS fight he doesn’t have a great get up game off his back. Chairez has also been submitted twice in the past, with one of those coming against Jesus Santos Aguilar, who Taira just submitted in his last fight (for the MMA mathers). That’s not overly encouraging for Chairez’s chances of surviving on the mat and he’ll need to keep this fight standing at all costs if he wants to pull off the massive upset. While Chairez does have six submission wins of his own, we’d be shocked to see him submit Taira here, and Chairez’s best shot at winning will be to land a quick hail mary knockout before Taira can get this fight to the mat. While anything’s possible and short notice debuted have been on an absolute tear lately, we’ll take Taira to win by submission in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Tatsuro Taira R1 or R2 SUB” at -160.

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DFS Implications:

Taira has submitted his last two opponents and is averaging 102 DraftKings points in his three UFC fights. Even in the decision win in his UFC debut, he still scored 97 points, and he’s shown a really solid scoring floor. However, he’s yet to put up any truly slate-breaking scores and his methodical grappling-heavy approach may not lend itself towards putting up other-worldly numbers. That makes it a little tougher for him to crack tournament winning lineups as his expensive price tag, especially when you look at fighters priced around him that he’ll need to outscore. While he scored 103 DraftKings points in his recent first round submission win, he was identically priced at $9,600 on DraftKings and even on a 10 fight slate he failed to crack the winning lineup, while commanding a ton of ownership (38%). He’ll definitely be lower owned here, which creates some tournament appeal, but there’s a really good chance he locks up another early submission and still gets priced out of winning tournament lineups. The odds imply Taira has an 88% chance to win, a 66% chance to land a finish, and a 41% chance it comes in round one.

Chairez has pretty crisp striking and good size for the division, keeping him in play to land a random early knockout in this really tough matchup. However, he gets controlled a little too easily on his back, which is a terrible sign in this matchup as he takes on a high-level grappler. And considering Chairez took this fight on short notice, it’s harder to trust him to survive and have the cardio to find a finish in the later rounds. That could leave him with just one shot to land a knockout in round one before he gets taken down and controlled. It’s certainly not impossible that he pulls it off and he likes to throw flying knees and spinning back fists, which are low percentage attacks but if he connects on one he could put Taira out and would then offer tournament winning upside. On a slate lacking many appealing underdogs, it will take a few lucky breaks to find the tournament winning combination of cheap plays and there are worse lottery tickets out there than Chairez. The odds imply Chairez has a 12% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Niko Price

16th UFC Fight (7-6, 2 NC)

Looking to bounce back from a R3 TKO loss to Phil Rowe, Price nearly landed a finish of his own in the third round, but appeared to punch himself out going for it and then Rowe turned the tables on him and forced a standing TKO stoppage. Price was notably coming off knee surgery for that fight and hadn’t competed in 14 months. He didn’t look great in the match and lost the first two rounds on all three judges’ scorecards, despite finishing ahead 110-63 in significant strikes and 150-64 in total strikes. After Price’s first 11 UFC fights all ended early, three of his last four went the distance and his last five fights have all made it to the third round, with two of those ending in R3 TKO losses and the other three going the distance (1-1, NC). The last time he finished anybody was in a 2019 R1 knockout of James Vick, who was in the midst of a five fight skid (four by KO), got cut following the loss to Price, and retired after one more KO defeat outside of the organization. Price’s only win since that 2019 knockout was a close 2021 decision victory over Alex Oliveira, who was also in the midst of a five fight losing streak. Prior to that, he lost a decision to Michel Pereira, after fighting a washed up Donald Cerrone to a draw in 2020, where Price would have won but lost a point for multiple eye pokes. The result was then overturned to a No Contest when Price tested positive for THC. Just before that, Price got knocked out in the third round by Vicente Luque in a violent war, which Price seemingly never fully recovered from.

Now 15-6 as a pro (plus two No Contests), Price has 10 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and just two decision victories. Eight of his knockouts came in round one, with the other two ending in round two. He also had a 2017 R2 KO win overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC. All three of his submission wins also occurred in the first two rounds, with two ending in round one. He’s been knocked out four times himself, submitted once, and has one decision loss. He also had a draw that was overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC (again). His last three knockout losses all occurred in the later rounds, with his last two ending in round three. While he’s only been to four decisions in 23 pro fights, three of those came in his last four outings.

Overall, Price has historically been a high paced brawler who averages 5.48 SSL/min and 5.57 SSA/min. While he landed 110 or more significant strikes in three of his last five fights, the last two decisions he fought to weren’t as high-volume, with Price failing to top 76 significant strikes landed in either of those. Part of that can be explained by the fact that we saw a little more grappling in those fights, but Price may also already be starting to slow down, despite only being 33 years old. His fighting style isn’t exactly conducive to a long career and now he had knee surgery prior to his last match. In his last 10 fights, he’s only landed 3 of his 18 takedown attempts (16.7% accuracy), failing to land more than a single takedown in any of those fights. On the other side of things, his last 10 opponents got him down on 9 of their 22 attempts (59.1% defense), with his last three opponents all getting him down at least once. Looking at his entire UFC career, he has a 20% takedown accuracy and a 64% defense. While he is a BJJ brown belt, he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and is generally looking to knock opponents out. The UFC is giving Price basically the best matchup he could ask for here, and a loss here would be devastating for the future of Price’s UFC career.

Robbie Lawler

18th UFC Fight (10-7)

Stepping into the final fight of his lengthy career, Lawler is coming off a second round TKO against Bryan Barberena and has gone just 1-5 in his last six fights. The one win came in his second most recent fight against a fellow washed up aging veteran in Nick Diaz, who quit early in the third round of a crazy high-paced striking battle. We saw another ultra high-paced barn burner in Laweler’s last outing, where Lawler actually won the first round, but Barberena finished ahead 147-81 in significant strikes before finishing Lawler in a standing TKO late in the second round. Prior to winning the second round against Diaz, Lawler had lost 15 straight rounds of fighting dating back to 2017. He dropped the first round to Diaz, lost a unanimous 30-27 decision to Neil Magny, was defeated in a unanimous (50-44, 50-45, 50-45) decision to Colby Covington, got submitted in the first round by Ben Askren, and lost a unanimous 50-45 decision to Rafael Dos Anjos. Lawler’s second most recent win was all the way back in 2017, in a decision victory over Donald Cerrone, which came just after Lawler lost the Welterweight belt in a 2016 R1 KO loss to Tyron Woodley.

Now 29-16 as a pro, the 41-year-old Lawler has 21 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and seven decision victories. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted five more, and has seven decision losses. Fourteen of his last 16 fights have seen a second round, with 12 of those making it to round three, and seven going to round five. Nine of those 16 fights went the distance, but his last two both ended in TKOs in the second and third rounds. The two fights to end in the first round over that stretch were a 2019 submission loss to Ben Askren and a 2016 KO loss to Woodley. Prior to getting credit for finishing Nick Diaz, Lawler hadn’t landed a finish since 2015 in a 5th round TKO against Rory MacDonald.

Overall, Lawler is an aging veteran who turned pro all the way back in 2001 and has really struggled to find wins over the last half seven years. While he had historically been pretty durable, he’s now been finished in three of his last losses, and also struggles with his defensive wrestling and grappling. In his last 10 fights, he’s landed just one takedown on only three attempts (33.3% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents 18 times on 49 attempts (63.3% defense). Lawler is an aggressive striker who will constantly push forward and his career striker numbers don’t tell the full story. While he only averages 3.83 SSL/min and 4.67 SSA/min, in his last two fights, we’ve seen those numbers skyrocket to an astronomical 10.33 SSL/min and 14.48 SSA/min! Both of those were pure striking battles with no takedowns involved, and in that type of Lawler fight you can expect nonstop striking.

Fight Prediction:

Price will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, and is also eight years younger than the 41-year-old Lawler.

Rarely do we see fighters announce their retirement before their last match and find much success in their forthcoming swan song, especially when they come in as underdogs. So if history is any indicator, this will not go well for Lawler and will likely end with him getting finished. Price hasn’t looked great lately, but still has the ability to put up big striking totals and it doesn’t seem like Lawler can absorb damage the way he used it. That should result in Price finishing Lawler at some point in this fight, whether it be from a seminal blow or an accumulation of damage. Price may also look to mix in some wrestling, but rarely submits anybody and a knockout is far more likely than a submission. There’s not a ton of meat on the bone with Price’s finishing props, and it is somewhat concerning that three of his last four fights have gone the distance and his last finish was all the way back in 2019, but just as the books do, we still expect him to get Lawler out of there early, we’ll say by knockout in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Price KO” at +120.

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DFS Implications:

Price has averaged 101 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, with the first six of those coming early. He notched his first UFC decision win in his second most recent fight, and only scored 78 DraftKings points in the process. He’s yet to show he can score well without a finish, but if there were ever a matchup to do so this would be it. Lawler has averaged a ridiculous 14.48 SSA/min in his last two fights, in addition to struggling on the mat in his previous four losses. In Lawler’s recent R2 TKO loss, Bryan Barberena landed a mind-numbing 147 significant strikes in just under two rounds of action, returning scores of 129 points on DraftKings and 163 points on FanDuel, despite not landing any knockdowns or takedowns. Just before that, Nick Diaz rolled off the couch after over six years away and landed 150 significant strikes against Lawler in less than 11 minutes. If that doesn’t get you excited about Price’s outlook here, we don’t know what will. Just keep in mind, Price is not a smart man and has been prone to poking opponents in the eye, so if anyone could find a way to blow this dream matchup it would probably be him. Nevertheless, from a ceiling perspective this is the best matchup Price could ever ask for, and as long as he doesn’t trip over himself looking for a finish we like his chances of putting up a career best score here. Because he hasn’t topped 78 DraftKings points in any of his last five fights and comes in with an expensive price tag, we should see his ownership remain under control, despite this once in a lifetime dream matchup. The odds imply Price has a 66% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.

Lawler is now 41 years old and just 1-5 in his last six matches and announced this will be his final fight beforehand, which has typically been the kiss of death for fighters. While Lawler has still shown the ability to put up big striking totals in his last two fights, his durability appears to be fading and he recently got finished by Bryan Barberena, who hasn’t been putting anyone else away lately. Price averages 5.57 SSA/min, and while this does set up well for Lawler to land a high number of strikes, he’ll also be absorbing a ton of damage and we’d be surprised to see him survive three rounds of face punching with Price. However, If Lawler does somehow win this fight, he should land enough volume to score decently even in a decision, despite the fact that he historically hasn’t scored very well in three-round decisions. With that said, we fully expect Price to win and likely finish Lawler early. The odds imply Lawler has a 34X% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Bo Nickal

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Nickal had been booked to fight Tresean Gore here, but Gore dropped out Monday night and Woodburn was announced as the replacement on Tuesday. Nickal had already been a -1400 favorite against Gore, but saw those odds soar to as high as -3500 in this new matchup, as Nickal will be the biggest betting favorite in UFC history. Nickal only turned pro 13 months ago, and has just four pro fights to his name. He finished all four of those opponents in under three minutes with a 33 second knockout in his pro debut, followed by three straight submissions wins. The first two of those submission wins came on DWCS, in fights that lasted just 62 and 52 seconds respectively. Then he faced Jamie Pickett in his recent UFC debut, and appeared to land a low blow that helped him get Pickett to the ground, but the ref missed it. Once on the mat, it was evident that Nickal was strong as he controlled Pickett, but his technique looked a bit sloppy, even though he did eventually lock up an arm-triangle choke.

Now 4-0 as a pro, Nickal has one win by knockout and three submissions. He also went 2-0 as an amateur, with another first round knockout and another first round submission win, so he’s never been in an MMA fight that lasted longer than three minutes.

Overall, Nickal started wrestling when he was just five years old and is a three time national NCAA wrestling champion, who also won the 2019 Under 23 Freestyle Wrestling World Championship. He won the 2019 Dan Hodge Trophy as the nation's best college wrestler. He was a finalist in the 2020 US Olympic trials, but came up just short and opted to shift his focus to MMA instead of continuing to chase his Olympic aspirations. He’s still just a BJJ blue belt and has yet to have his cardio tested in an MMA fight, and with so little fight time it’s hard to truly evaluate his complete game. Obviously he’s a very good wrestler, but his striking defense and cardio remain a mystery. He’s still just 27 years old and so early in his pro career that he should be improving all the time, but he wasn’t overly impressive in his UFC debut, despite getting the first round finish. It will be interesting to see what improvements Nickal has made over the last four months since his debut.

Val Woodburn

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Woodburn will be making his UFC debut on very short notice, as he was announced as the replacement on Tuesday after Gore dropped out. Woodburn had been scheduled to go on DWCS in late August, so he had been on the UFC’s radar, but now he’s getting fast tracked straight to the big show. Woodburn comes into the UFC undefeated, but only turned pro in 2020 and isn’t long in experience, despite already being 29 years old.

Now 7-0 as a pro, Woodburn has five KO/TKO wins and two decision victories. After finishing his first five pro opponents in the first two rounds, his last two fights have both gone the distance. You definitely have to question the level of competition he’s been facing, and his first three finishes came against opponents with one combined pro win. His third most recent win came against an opponent who was born in the 70s, before he faced an opponent stepping in on short notice in his second most recent fight and then a 41 year old journeyman in his last match. Most of his career has been spent at 185 lb, but Woodburn did have one 195 lb Catchweight match and one 205 lb fight, which was when his opponent came in on short notice.

Overall, Woodburn is an incredibly stocky 5’8” Middleweight who loves to work out of the clinch. He’ll occasionally land takedowns, but most of his pro fight time has been spent jockeying for position along the cage and looking for knockouts when fights momentarily return to space. He’s made that work against low level opponents on the Florida regional scene, but we expect him to have a tougher time finding success at the UFC level. To his credit, he seems to have decent power and is heavy from top position on the mat, but he’s going to have trouble finding his range against taller strikers. His cardio hasn’t looked great, which is concerning as he took this fight on such short notice, but he did go the full 15 minutes in each of his last two matches. The only time we saw Woodburn get taken down was when he slipped throwing a knee in one of his earlier fights, and while he was quickly able to get back up, he hasn’t spent much time on his back to this point. Woodburn has trained at Xtreme Couture some with Chris Curtis, who called the guy a fire hydrant, which seems very accurate.

Fight Prediction:

Nickal will have a 5” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

Both of these two are largely unproven, which leaves a little more uncertainty than the most lopsided odds in the history of the sport might suggest. With that said, Nickal is the much taller fighter and comes in with a prestigious wrestling pedigree, so it’s hard to have much confidence in Woodburn, who comes in as the largest underdog in UFC history. Nevertheless, Nickal has yet to have his chin tested and Woodburn is nothing if not powerful. There’s always a chance Woodburn clips him and pulls off the stunning upset in a first round knockout. While we have some questions surrounding Nickal’s cardio, simply because he’s never been in an MMA fight that made it past the three minute mark, it’s unlikely that Woodburn will be the guy to test it, considering he has his own cardio concerns and took this fight on such short notice. Woodburn looks like a tougher guy to takedown based on his stature, but we still expect Nickal to figure out how to get this fight to the mat. One thing to consider is that all three of Nickal’s submission wins have come by some form of choke, and as far as we can tell Woodburn doesn’t have a neck, so it will be interesting to see how that works out. Woodburn’s style of clinch fighting makes for slower-paced boring matches, but it remains to be seen how he’ll look in the clinch against Nickal. Maybe the two will get stuck hugging it out along the cage for extended periods of time, or maybe the size and wrestling ability of Nickal will allow him to overpower Woodburn and drag him to the mat. We’re not as confident as the books are in how this fight plays out, so we’d rather lean into that uncertainty than hop on the chalk train. The books are confidently predicting another first round submission win for Nickal, but we could see this fight going a lot of different ways. Considering Woodburn’s lack of a neck, we’re leaning more towards a knockout in this one, and we won’t be entirely shocked if the fight makes it to the second round. We’ll tentatively say Nickal wins by knockout in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at +180.

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DFS Implications:

Nickal got a late opponent change for this fight after DraftKings pricing had already been released, but fortunately he was already priced as the biggest favorite on that card and is now just an even bigger favorite. Nickal was a -2000 favorite who was priced at $9,600 on DraftKings in his recent UFC debut, and now he’s a -2400 to -3500 favorite depending on where you look, who’s priced at $9,800. He scored 100 DraftKings points in a first round submission win in that last fight, which was not enough for him to end up in tournament winning lineups. It will once again be tough for him to end up in the optimal lineup unless he puts up a slate-breaking score, so there are lots of ways he gets priced out here. Stylistically, it doesn’t look like the best matchup in the world for him to score well, as he takes on a bowling ball with no neck. All three of Nickal’s submission wins have come by some form of choke, and if you’ve ever tried to choke out a bowling ball you’ll see the problem here. Woodburn also likes to spend extended periods of time in the clinch, which has the potential to slow the fight down. With that said, it’s a major step up in competition for Woodburn who just found out about his short notice UFC debut on Tuesday, so there’s also a very real chance that Nickal can just run right through him, leaving him with a high scoring ceiling. Prior to making his debut, Nickal had finished three straight opponents in 62 seconds or less, so he’s shown he’s a potential candidate for the Quick Win Bonus, which could be what he needs to be useful. The odds imply he has a 92% chance to win, an 83% chance to land a finish, and a 59% chance it comes in round one.

Woodburn is a rare 5’8” Middleweight, meaning he’s as wide as he is tall. It will be interesting to see the impact that has on Nickal’s ability to take him down and we’re also curious to find out whether or not it’s possible to choke a man who has no neck. So Woodburn could have some natural defenses playing in his favor here, despite coming into his short notice debut as the biggest underdog in UFC history. No one has tested Nickel's chin yet in his 13 months as a pro, so it’s also possible Woodburn can catch him coming in and flip this entire slate upside down with a quick knockout. Outside of landing a hail mary KO, we don’t see many paths to victory for Woodburn, but keep in mind Nickal has never been past the three minute mark in an MMA match and we have no idea how he’ll look later on in a fight. That at least adds some level of uncertainty, but Woodburn is obviously a lottery ticket at best and his chances of winning are very slim. The odds imply Woodburn has an 8% chance to win, a 5% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Jalin Turner

10th UFC Fight (6-3)

This is the second time this matchup has been put together, but Dan Hooker dropped out of their original date on March 4th, with Mateusz Gamrot filling in on a few weeks’ notice. Gamrot won a split decision over Turner, which is Turner’s first loss since 2019. Prior to that, Turner finished five straight opponents, after starting off 1-2 in the UFC. The last two of those finishes came in a first round submission against Brad Riddell, who trains at City Kickboxing with Dan Hooker, and a second round TKO against a really tough Jamie Mullarkey, who has also spent some time at City Kickboxing. The only time Turner has been finished in the UFC was a R1 KO in his debut, which came in one of the tougher spots you could ask for, fighting up a weight class against a really tough Vicente Luque. Turner bounced back with a 53 second R1 KO against a questionable Callan Potter, before losing a wrestling-heavy decision to Matt Frevola in 2019.

Now 13-6 as a pro, Turner has only seen the third round four times in his career, losing all four of those fights. All 13 of his wins have come in the first two rounds, with nine KO/TKOs and four submissions. He’s been knocked out three times and has lost all three of the decisions he’s been to. Ten of his 13 finishes have occurred in the first round, with the other three ending in round two. While Turner has been knocked out three times in his career, two of those came very early in his career before he joined the UFC. The other was against Vicente Luque in Turner’s 2018 UFC debut, which he took up a weight class when he was just 23 years old. That’s the only time Turner has competed up at 170 lb in his career, and he moved back down to 155 lb immediately after.

Overall, Turner is 6’3” with a 77” reach and gigantic for the 155 lb division. He’s dangerous everywhere fights can go, and in addition to being a powerful striker, he’s a BJJ brown belt who’s locked up submissions in three of his last four wins. Still just 28 years old, he’s still learning and improving every time he steps inside the Octagon. His one potential weakness has been getting outwrestled, which is how he’s lost both of the decisions he’s been to in the UFC. Between his nine UFC fights and DWCS appearance, Turner has landed 4 takedowns on 6 attempts (66.7% accuracy), while getting taken down himself on just 10 of 39 opponent attempts (74.4% defense). He’s still never won a fight that’s made it past the second round, and is now facing an opponent who hasn’t been past round two in any of his last three fights.

UPDATE: Turner missed weight by 2 lb!

Dan Hooker

21st UFC Fight (12-8)

Hooker has had a rough go of it since losing an action packed five-round decision to Dustin Poirier in 2020. Prior to that loss, Hooker had won three in a row and seven of his previous eight fights. However, beginning with the loss to Poirier, Hooker is now just 2-4 in his last six fights, with his last three losses all ending in round one. In fairness to him, those losses came against incredibly tough opponents in Arnold Allen (down at 145 lb), Islam Makhachev, Michael Chandler, and Dustin Poirier. While Hooker landed a TKO via body kicks against a one-dimensional grappler in Claudio Puelles in the second round of his last fight, his previous three wins all went the distance, with his second most recent finish coming all the way back in 2019. After the failed attempt at dropping down to 145 lb in his match against Allen, Hooker smartly returned to 155 lb for this last fight.

Now 22-12 as a pro, Hooker has 11 wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and four decision victories. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has six decision defeats. While he’s been knocked out three times in his last 10 fights, the only person to submit him since 2012 is the current champion Islam Makhachev. Eight of Hooker’s last nine fights either ended in the first round (1-3) or went the distance (3-1), with the one exception being his recent second round finish. Hooker started his career at 155 lb, but dropped down to 145 lb when he joined the UFC. However, after going 3-3 in his first six UFC fights, he moved back up to 155 lb in 2017, where he’s stayed for the most part, outside of one failed trip back down to 145 lb in 2022 when he got finished by Arnold Allen in the first round.

Overall, Hooker is primarily a striker but will sporadically mix in takedowns in the right matchup. However, he’s just a BJJ purple belt and has only locked up two submissions since 2013, which were a pair of guillotines in 2016 and 2017. In his last 10 fights, he’s landed 8 of his 23 takedown attempts (34.8% accuracy), but failed to land a takedown in seven of those 10 matches and didn’t even attempt one in four of his last five fights. Over the same 10 fight stretch, his opponents have only gotten him down on 2 of their 22 attempts (90.9% defense), with one of those coming from Islam Makhachev and the other from Dustin Poirier. Looking at his entire 20 fight UFC career, Hooker has a 36% takedown accuracy and an 81% defense, but his defense has actually improved since he moved up to 155 lb.

Fight Prediction:

Turner will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while also being five years younger than the 33-year-old Turner.

Jalin Turner will be looking to pull off the hat trick against City Kickboxing here, as they continue to empty the clip with no success against him. While Hooker is used to being the taller fighter in his matches, Turner will tower over him. Hooker’s only two wins in his last six fights came when he used his well-roundedness to attack the weaknesses of one-dimensional opponents. He used his striking to defeat a one-dimensional grappler in Claudio Puelles and used his wrestling to defeat a one-dimensional striker in Nasrat Haqparast. While Turner’s one weakness has been his wrestling, he’s still a decent grappler and not an easy guy to take down as he owns a 74% takedown defense. No one’s confusing Hooker for Gamrot, and while Hooker could find some wrestling success here, he’s less likely to completely dominate the entire fight on the ground. Hooker has been finished in four of his last five losses and Turner is incredibly dangerous, and we like Turner’s chances of putting Hooker away in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Jalin Turner R1 or R2 Win” at +105.

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DFS Implications:

Turner has been a DFS gold mine when he wins, averaging 116 DraftKings points in his six UFC victories, with at least 106 points in all of those and topping 125 twice. All 13 of his career wins have come in the first two rounds and he’s 0-4 in fights that lasted longer than 10 minutes. In his two UFC decisions losses, he only scored 31 and 22 points on DraftKings, giving us no indication that he can score well in a decision if he ever wins one. Turner is habitually highly owned in DFS, with his DraftKings ownership coming in at 36%, 46%, and 34% in his last three fights. However, he is finally priced up here which could help to keep his ownership more under control in a slate where salary comes at a premium with so many high-upside expensive options and so few live underdogs. Turner is also coming off a loss, so this may be a rare buy-low spot on him to some extent, although he’ll just be lower owned and not low owned. He’s shown massive upside, which will be key on this slate when you look at who he’ll need to outscore to end up in winning lineups, and Hooker has been finished in the first round in each of his last three losses. The odds imply Turner has a 70% chance to win, a 55% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.

Hooker is just 2-4 in his last six fights, but his losses have all been against top guys in the division. He’ll face another tough test here, but if he can get his wrestling going we could see him grind out a decision on the mat, which is how Turner’s last two losses went. The last time Hooker landed a takedown was in 2021 when he won a surprisingly wrestling-heavy decision over Nasrat Haqparast and scored 108 DraftKings points in the process, but just 82 points on FanDuel. While it’s not impossible for Hooker to find a finish, it is less likely, so he looks like a better play on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. On a slate lacking many appealing underdogs, Hooker is definitely in play, however, it’s still a pretty narrow path to victory for him and the most likely outcome in this fight is for Turner to finish Hooker early. The odds imply Hooker has a 30% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Robert Whittaker

20th UFC Fight (15-4)

Coming off an easy decision win over Marvin Vettori, Whittaker won every round of the fight and finished ahead in significant strikes 74-33 and in takedowns 1-0. Prior to that, Whittaker suffered a disappointing second loss to Israel Adesanya in a five-round decision. Whittaker is 13-2 in his last 15 fights, with both of those losses coming against Adesanya. The last time Whittaker lost to anyone not named Adesanya was all the way back in 2014, when he got knocked out by Stephen Thompson in a 170 lb fight. Whittaker only competed at 170 lb once more after that loss before moving up to 185 lb later that year. Whittaker rattled off nine straight wins following the KO loss, which included an Interim Middleweight Championship win over Yoel Romero in 2017. Whittaker’s last five and seven of his last eight fights have ended with the judges, with the one exception being a 2019 R2 KO loss to Adesanya. The last time Whittaker finished anybody was in a 2017 R2 TKO win over Jacare Souza. Whittaker made his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in 2012.

Now 24-6 as a pro, Whittaker has nine wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and 10 decision victories. Thirteen of his 14 early wins have come in the first two rounds, with the one exception being a 2013 R3 TKO. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has three decision losses. His lone submission loss occurred all the way back in 2011, while his knockout losses were in 2014 and 2019. All three of his early losses came in the first two rounds, with two ending in round one. Whittaker fought at 170 lb to start his career, where he went 3-2 in his first five UFC fights before moving up to 185 lb in 2014. Since moving up to Middleweight, Whittaker has gone 12-2 with his only two losses coming against Adesanya.

Overall, Whittaker is a very well-rounded fighter who has been able to beat everyone they put in front of him lately outside of Adesanya. He has a really solid 84% takedown defense and has only been taken down 11 times on 69 attempts in his 19 UFC fights. He’s also tough to hold down when he does get taken down. Whittaker has also been incorporating more offensive wrestling of his own lately, and after landing just six combined takedowns in his first 16 UFC fights, Whittaker has landed 9 on 18 attempts in his last three matches. While he hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2017, he throws dangerous head kicks that are hard to see coming.

Dricus Du Plessis

6th UFC Fight (5-0)

Continuing to beat everyone the UFC puts in front of him, Du Plessis recently notched a R2 TKO win over Derek Brunson after Brunson’s corner threw in the towel right as the round ended as Brunson was eating ground shots off his back. Prior to that, Du Plessis landed a third round submission win over Darren Till, after seeing the judges for the first time in his career in a decision win over Brad Tavares. That decision came after Du Plessis knocked out Markus Perez and Revin Giles in his first two UFC fights. Du Plessis has won seven straight fights and 15 of his last 16 matches. While he’s only been to the judges once in 21 pro fights, his last four fights made it to the second round, with two of his last three seeing the third round and his most recent getting stopped in the final second of round two.

Now 19-2 as a pro, Du Plessis has eight wins by KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and won the only decision he’s ever been to. All eight of his knockouts have come in the first two rounds, split evenly between round one and round two. His submission wins have been more spread out, with four in round one, three in round two, and three more in round three. The only time he’s ever been knocked out was against Roberto Soldic in the third round of 2018 KSW Welterweight Championship fight. That was a rematch after Du Plessis knocked out Soldic just six months earlier in the second round when those two first fought for the KSW Welterweight belt. The only other loss of Du Plessis’ career was a 2014 third round submission. Du Plessis has moved between 170 lb and 185 lb throughout his career, but has exclusively fought at 185 lb since suffering the 2018 KO loss to Soldic at 170 lb.

Overall, Du Plessis is an explosive fighter with the ability to finish fights at any moment. He’s a powerful striker and a decent grappler, who trained judo as a kid and loves to look for guillotines. He made his title aspirations clear from the start of his UFC career and always looks for finishes, and 95% of his fights have ended early. While Du Plessis appears to tire later in fights, he’s shown the ability to go three hard rounds, despite his explosive fighting style. He also said that his nose has been jacked up for a while, making it hard to breathe out of it, but finally got it fixed leading up to this fight, so it will be interesting to see what difference that makes. He also operates at such a high pace that it wears on both his own cardio and that of his opponent and he averages 6.72 SSL/min and 3.73 SSA/min. He’s also landed 9 takedowns on 19 attempts (47.4% accuracy), while he’s only been taken down twice on four opponent attempts (50% defense).

Fight Prediction:

Du Plessis will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also three years younger than the 32-year-old Whittaker.

This will be a big step up in competition for Du Plessis, who’s only win over a currently ranked opponent was against a 39-year-old Derek Brunson. The only 185 lb fighter to ever beat Whittaker is Adesanya and Du Plessis will certainly have his work cut out for him. Whittaker is a more methodical, slower paced fighter, who’s fought to five straight decisions, while Du Plessis is far more aggressive and has only been to one decision in 21 pro fights. So something will have to give here. We’ll say Whittaker is able to slow the pace down and outland his way to another decision win, but it won’t be entirely shocking to see a late finish if Du Plessis marches forward for the entire fight and walks into a head kick. Either way we’re taking Whittaker here.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Starts R3 (Yes)” at +100

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DFS Implications:

Whittaker has only averaged 71 DraftKings points in his six UFC three-round decision wins, failing to top 78 points in any of those. While he has been mixing in a little more wrestling lately, he’s still reliant on landing a finish to score well, and the last time he got anyone out of there early was in 2017. However, he has been facing the top guys in the division, who are all very durable. While Du Plessis is undefeated in the UFC, he was finished in the third round in each of his pro losses before joining the organization. Whittaker throws that sneaky same-side head kick behind his punches and it’s not impossible that Whittaker knocks Du Plessis. Despite Whittaker going the distance in five straight fights, the odds actually suggest he’s more likely to land a finish than win a decision here, in what could be a higher paced fight than we’re used to seeing from Whittaker. When you combine that with historically low ownership, and Du Plessis’ consistently high ownership, Whittaker looks like a solid high-risk tournament option who should go largely overlooked by the field as he’s priced alongside all of the far more appealing expensive options. The odds imply Whittaker has a 76% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.

Du Plessis is undefeated in the UFC and has finished four of his five opponents, averaging 116 DraftKings points in those four early wins and scoring 80 points in his lone decision victory, which is the only time he’s been to the judges as a pro. He scored 108 or more DraftKings points in all of his finishes and is now priced at just $7,100 on DraftKings. We expect him to be popular once again, despite stepping into the toughest matchup of his career. That high ownership lowers his tournament appeal considerably in an already tough spot to score well, but if he does pull off the upset he’ll likely end up in winning lineups and 95% of his career fights have ended early. The odds imply he has a 24% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Brandon Moreno

15th UFC Fight (9-3-2)

Moreno recently closed out the Deiveson Figueiredo quadrilogy with a post R3 TKO win, after Figueiredo’s eye swelled shut. That’s the second time Moreno has put away the former champ with a third round finish. In between those two early wins over Figueiredo, Moreno lost a close five-round decision to Figueiredo and then finished Kai Kara-France in another third round TKO for the interim belt while Figueiredo recovered on the sidelines. That was also the second time Moreno has defeated Kara-France and amazingly, six of Moreno’s last eight fights have been against Deiveson Figueiredo and Kai Kara-France. Moreno’s only loss in his last 10 fights was against Figueiredo, although he does have two draws over that stretch. Moreno’s second most recent loss was a 2018 decision against Alexandre Pantoja. Moreno originally joined the UFC in 2016 and won his first three fights with the organization, but then lost a pair of decisions to Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja and was released. However, after landing a R4 TKO win with the LFA in 2019, the UFC brough Moreno back on.

Now 21-6-2 as a pro, Moreno has five wins by TKO, 11 submissions, and five decision victories. He’s never been finished in an official pro fight, with all six of his pro losses going the distance. With that said, he was submitted in the second round on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016 by Alexandre Pantoja, but those TUF fights are counted as exhibition matches so it doesn’t show up on his official pro record. Eight of his 14 UFC fights have gone the distance, his last four wins have all come early, with the last three of those ending in round three.

This will be the 8th five-round fight of Moreno’s career, and 7th in the UFC. His first was a 2017 decision loss to Sergio Pettis. Then he landed a 4th round TKO in a 2019 LFA fight after briefly being cut by the UFC. He went 2-1-1 in his four five-round matches against Figueiredo, with two going the distance—a loss and a draw—and two ending in third round finishes. Moreno also landed a third round TKO against Kai Kara-France. Moreno is 3-2-1 in UFC five-round matches, but has yet to win a UFC five-round decision in three trips to the judges (0-2-1).

Overall, Moreno is a well-rounded, durable fighter, with good cardio and tons of heart. He’s a BJJ black belt and his striking has improved throughout his UFC career. He’s still just 29 years old and seemingly still improving as he enters his prime. He’s never been a very high-volume fighter, averaging just 3.55 SSL/min in his career. In his 14 UFC fights, he’s landed 25 takedowns on 55 attempts (45.5% accuracy). Moreno has been bouncing around camps lately and after spending most of his career at Entram Gym, he moved to Glory just before they got shut down and then switched to Fortis.

Alexandre Pantoja

13th UFC Fight (9-3)

Finally getting his long awaited title shot after waiting for the neverending Moreno/Figueiredo saga to come to a close, Pantoja has won three straight and is coming off back-to-back submission wins. The most recent of those came in just 91 seconds against Alex Perez, after Pantoja submitted Brandon Royval early in the second round just before that. Just before that, Pantoja won a decision over a debuting Manel Kape, after losing a decision to Askar Askarov. Pantoja’s only other loss in his last nine fights came in a 2019 decision against Deiveson Figueiredo. Pantoja not only has a dominant decision win over Brandon Moreno in 2018, where two of the three judges scored it 30-26 for Pantoja, he also is the only fighter to ever finish Moreno. That occurred when the two of them squared off for the first time on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, although that technically counts as an exhibition match and doesn’t show up on their pro records. Five of Pantoja’s last six wins have come early, with all of those finishes coming in under seven minutes and four ending in round one. One thing Pantoja has struggled with recently is inactivity. Following his August 2021 win over Royval, Pantoja was sidelined for almost a year after having knee surgery, and now it’s been almost another year since his last fight.

Now 25-5 as a pro, Pantoja has eight wins by KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and seven decision victories. All five of his career losses have gone the distance and he’s never been finished in his 16 year pro career that began when he was just 17 years old back in 2007. In addition to his 25 official pro wins, he also defeated both Brandon Moreno (R2 SUB) and Kai Kara-France (DEC) on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, but those victories are counted as exhibition matches and don’t count towards his official pro record. He’s typically looking to lock up rear-naked chokes, which is how he finished the majority of his submissions. He has 10 first round finishes, five in round two, and three in round three. Nine of his last 10 finishes have occurred in the first two rounds, with six of those ending in under five minutes.

This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Pantoja’s career, but first in the UFC. His previous two fights scheduled to go five-rounds were in 2014 and 2015 and he finished both of those opponents in the second round, so we’ve never seen what his cardio looks like in the championship rounds.

Overall, Pantoja is an all action fighter who’s constantly hunting for finishes, despite having the demeanor that he’s waiting for a bus. He’s a high level BJJ black belt in addition to being a dangerous striker with rare one punch knockout power in the Flyweight division. He’s been training at American Top Team since 2019, after training at Nova Uniao before that, so you know he’s been well coached. Pantoja generally comes out very aggressively early on in fights, but his pace has slowed at times as fights go on. With that said, we’ve seen him still pushing for finishes in the third round of fights, even if his early pace is unsustainable for entire fights. In his 12 UFC fights, he’s landed 11 takedowns on 27 attempts (40.7%) in his 11 UFC fights, while getting taken down by his opponents 21 times on 65 attempts (67.7% takedown defense). After already defeating Moreno twice in the past, we expect Pantoja to come into this matchup with supreme confidence even if he is the challenger.

Fight Prediction:

Moreno will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also four years younger than the 33-year-old Pantoja.

This will be the third time these two have fought, with Pantoja winning each of the first two matches. When they originally fought on TUF in 2016, Moreno was 22 years old and Pantoja was 26 and Pantoja submitted Moreno in the second round. When they ran it back in the UFC in 2018, Moreno was 24 and Pantoja was 28. Pantoja dominated the fight, especially early on where he notched a 10-8 first round, and finished ahead 30-26 on two of the judges’ scorecards. While Pantoja was able to easily beat the younger Moreno up in both of those matches, there’s no question that Moreno has made the more noticeable improvements since then. Whether or not he’s improved enough to turn the tables remains to be seen. Both guys are dangerous BJJ black belts, but Pantoja is still the slicker grappler and should have the advantage on the mat. The striking is where we’ve seen the most improvements from Moreno, so it will be interesting to see how those exchanges go. Pantoja will get more aggressive and wild with his striking, while Moreno is more calculated and technical. While Pantoja is extremely dangerous early on in fights, he’s never been past the third round and Moreno should have the cardio advantage in a longer fight. Pantoja normally comes out very aggressive early on, but considering this is his first five-round fight in the UFC, it’s always possible he looks to pace himself a bit more. With that said, he’s already beaten Moreno twice, finishing him in one of those matches, so perhaps he’ll just stick to his normal game plan and aggressively push for another early finish. While Moreno is extremely durable, Pantoja has already shown he has the grappling skills to submit him, and we like Pantoja’s chances of landing another submission in the first two rounds, most likely by rear-naked choke. However, we do expect Moreno to look better here than the previous two times they fought, and if Pantoja is unable to get Moreno out of there early, there’s a good chance Moreno can come back and win the later rounds and make it a close fight, with a chance he finds a finish of his own.

Our favorite bet here is Pantoja’s ML at +170.

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DFS Implications:

Moreno’s lower striking volume, history of landing mid-round finishes, and 0-2-1 UFC record in five-round decisions has resulted in him failing to reach 100 DraftKings points in any of his six previous UFC five-round fights. He won three of those matches, with all three of those wins coming in third round finishes that were good for 99, 80, and 97 DraftKings points. In his two five-round decision losses he scored 49 and 57 points, which still wouldn’t have scored great had those decisions gone his way. The one time he would have scored well in a decision was in his draw against Figueiredo, where Moreno scored 80 DraftKings points as he set a career in significant strikes landed (132) and tacked on four takedowns. While Moreno does generally boost his scoring with takedowns, this will be a dangerous matchup for him to go to the ground, although he did take Pantoja down twice the last time they fought. Despite that, Moreno only scored 29 DraftKings points in that lopsided decision loss, which isn’t overly encouraging for his scoring potential here. At his somewhat expensive price tag, even if he wins this fight there are lots of ways for Moreno to get left out of winning lineups, whether it be in another mid-round finish or a lower volume decision. That leaves us less excited about playing him, and he’ll be reliant on landing a well-timed finish or winning a high-volume decision to score well. Both of which will be challenging as Pantoja has never been finished in his career and only averages 3.38 SSA/min. The odds imply Moreno has a 66% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

Pantoja has relied on landing finishes to score well throughout his UFC career, as he averaged just 64 DraftKings points in his three decision wins, but 108 points in his six finishes. His last five finishes all came in under seven minutes and he’s been the most dangerous early on in fights. He’s notably the only fighter to ever finish Moreno, although that 2016 second round submission win came in an “exhibition” match on TUF, so it doesn't show up on their pro records. He also has a lower scoring 2018 decision win over Moreno, where Pantoja had him really hurt in round one, but couldn’t quite get him out of there. This will be Pantoja’s first five-round fight in the UFC and he’s never seen the championship rounds, leaving his late-round cardio somewhat of a mystery. The most recent time these two fought, Pantoja dominated early on, notching a 10-8 first round, but slowed some as the fight progressed but still cruised to a lopsided decision win. That’s slightly concerning for his outlook in a longer fight here if he’s unable to put Moreno away early, but that was also five years ago. It won’t be entirely shocking to see Pantoja pace himself more than normal here as he steps into his first UFC five-round fight, but the fact that he already has two wins over Moreno could also give him the confidence to come out guns blazing and push for another early finish. And at his cheaper price tag, Pantoja doesn’t necessarily have to put up a huge score to crack winning lineups, so even in a less eventful decision win he could still potentially be useful. The odds imply Pantoja has a 34% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Alexander Volkanovski

14th UFC Fight (12-1)

Looking to bounce back from his first loss since 2013 after winning 22 straight fights, Volkanovski outperformed expectations but still came up just short in his attempt to move up to 155 lb and capture a second belt as he faced off against Islam Makhachev. Volkanovski got taken down four times and controlled for over seven and a half minutes by Makhachev, but did a good job of surviving on the mat and also finished ahead in striking. Volkanovski won rounds three and five, but Makhachev won rounds one, two, and four to secure the unanimous decision victory. Volkanovski will now be moving back down to 145 lb to defend his Featherweight belt. Six of his last seven fights have gone the distance, with the last five of those decisions coming in five-round fights. His only finish since 2018 was a R4 TKO win over The Korean Zombie in April 2022. Three of his four recent five-round decision wins came against Max Holloway, with the other one coming against Brian Ortega. The only recent time we’ve seen Volkanovski in any danger of getting finished was against Ortega, who had a locked in guillotine and a decent triangle attempt that Volkanovski somehow Houdini'd his way out of.

Now 25-2 as a pro, Volkanovski has 12 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and 10 decision victories. He’s coming off his first decision loss, with his only other career loss coming in a 2013 R3 TKO in his fourth pro fight, which took place up at 170 lb. Volkanovski then dropped down to 155 lb in 2014 and then all the way down to 145 lb later that same year. He bounced between 145 lb and 155 lb until settling in at 145 lb following his 2016 UFC debut at 155 lb. The only time he’s competed at 155 lb since 2016 was in his recent decision loss to Makhachev, and Volkanovski has never lost a fight at 145 lb. All 13 of his UFC fights have made it to the second round, with 10 seeing the third round, and his last six all making it to the championship rounds, with five of those going the distance. Nine of his 13 UFC wins have gone the distance (8-1), while he has three second round TKOs and one in round four.

This will be Volkanovski’s 7th straight title fight, with five of his previous six ending in decisions (4-1) and the other a fourth round TKO win. He also had six fights scheduled to go five rounds prior to joining the UFC, but he finished all six of those opponents early, with four first round finishes and two in round four. So overall, he’s 11-1 in five-round fights in his career and 5-1 in the UFC.

Overall, Volkanovski is insanely well-rounded and really has no weaknesses in his game. He can strike, he can wrestle, he’s insanely durable, and he has a never ending gas tank. He’s a BJJ black belt and started training in Greco-Roman Wrestling as a kid before switching to rugby for a while before fully committing to MMA. In his 13 UFC fights, Volkanovski has landed 23 of his 67 takedown attempts (34.3% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 12 of their 39 attempts (69.2% defense). He’s a tough guy to control on the mat and even when he has been taken down he’s done a great job of returning to his feet or reversing positions on the mat. Only Makhachev was able to control him for more than 99 seconds in any of his UFC fights. Volkanovski averages a ridiculous 6.35 SSL/min and just 3.40 SSA/min, and has outlanded all 13 of his UFC opponents in significant strikes. The only unknown here is if the weight cut down to 145 lb will be any harder after bulking up to fight at 155 lb in his last match. In fairness to him, he’s made the drop from 155 lb to 145 lb four times in the past, winning all four of those fights, with two first round knockouts and two decisions, although all four of those previous fights were earlier in his career, with three coming before he joined the UFC.

Yair Rodriguez

14th UFC Fight (10-2, NC)

Getting his first actual title shot in the UFC, Rodriguez recently won the meaningless interim title against Josh Emmett, while Volkanovski took a trip up to 155 lb to fight Makhachev. Rodriguez was able to submit Emmett late in the second round, after nearly tripling him up in striking. Prior to that, Rodriguez notched a R1 TKO against Brian Ortega after Ortega randomly dislocated his shoulder as Rodriguez tried to secure an armbar, but never actually had anything locked in. Just before that, Rodriguez suffered his only loss since 2017 in a high-volume five-round decision against Max Holloway, where Holloway finished ahead in significant strikes 230-159 and also took Rodriguez down three times and controlled him for nearly seven minutes. Due to a fractured ankle in 2020, Rodriguez took 25 months off leading up to that fight, after hanging on to win a three-round decision over Jeremy Stephens back in 2019. That matchup had originally been scheduled to go five rounds a month earlier, but got stopped 15 seconds in due to an accidental eye book and then rebooked. Rodriguez’s only other UFC defeat besides the loss to Holloway was a 2017 post round two doctor stoppage TKO against Frankie Edgar, although Rodriguez was a second away from losing a close five-round decision to The Korean Zombie in 2018, but landed a highlight reel knockout as the final second ticked off the clock to steal the win. Had he lost that fight, he would be just 3-3 plus a No Contest in his last six matches.

Now 15-3 as a pro, Rodriguez has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and six decision victories. He also has two KO/TKO losses and one decision defeat. Not counting his No Contest that was stopped 15 seconds in due to an eye poke, 11 of Rodriguez’s 12 UFC fights have seen the second round, with seven seeing round three, and six going the distance. While he has four submission wins on his record, he only has one since 2014 and four of his last five finishes have come by KO/TKO. Eleven of his 12 UFC fights (not counting the No Contest) have ended in either decisions (5-1) or KO/TKOs (4-1), while he’s coming off his first submission win with the organization. Not counting his No Contest, five of Rodriguez’s last seven fights ended early, with one ending in round one, three in round two, and one in round five.

This will be the 8th five-round fight of Rodriguez’s UFC career, although one of those ended in a No Contest 15 seconds into the fight. In his first UFC five-round fight, he won a 2016 split decision over Alex Caceres. In his next, he knocked out BJ Penn in the second round of a 2017 match. His third UFC five-round fight ended in a last second KO win over The Korean Zombie in 2018, just before his No Contest against Jeremy Stephens. His 5th UFC round-fight fight was his decision loss to Holloway, leading up to his recent R1 TKO win over Ortega and R2 submission win over Josh Emmett. Rodriguez is 5-1 plus a No Contest in UFC five-round fights, but has had a few breaks go his way to get there.

Overall, Rodriguez is a black belt in Taekwondo and likes to throw a ton of kicks and spinning attacks. He’s also shown how creative and dangerous he can be with his elbows or working off of his back. While he’s landed nine takedowns in the UFC, eight of those came in his first five fights with the organization and he’s only landed one takedown in his last eight matches. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down by his opponents 17 times on 47 attempts (63.8% defense). His last four opponents all got him down at least once, with Rodriguez giving up eight takedowns over that stretch. Rodriguez averages 4.78 SSL/min and 4.03 SSA/min and has been outlanded in three of his last five fights that made it out of the first round.

Fight Prediction:

Rodriguez will have a 5” height advantage, but both fighters share a 71” reach.

We’re not convinced any 145 lb fighter on the planet can beat Volkanovski, but Rodriguez will at least present a new challenge as he’s significantly taller than Volkanovski, which will only be accentuated by the amount of kicks he throws. So while Volkanovski was able to handle Max Holloway, who’s the same height as Rodriguez, this will be a different test. Rodriguez throws a lot of crazy techniques and stitches together unusual combos that will give Volkanovski something new to deal with, although also isn’t as defensively sound or as durable as Holloway. That increases the potential for Volkanovski to land a knockout, just remember that five of Volkanovski’s previous six five-rounds fights ended in decisions, with the other being stopped in round four. And while Rodriguez has been knocked out twice before, one of those times was all the way back in 2012 and the other was in 2017. So the most likely outcome is still for this to end in a Volkanovski decision win, but we won’t be shocked to see him find a TKO finish in the later rounds. Either way, we’re confident that Volkanovski gets it done,

Our favorite bet here is “Volkanovski R4, R5, or DEC” at -125.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.

DFS Implications:

Volkanovski is coming off his first UFC loss, but exceeded expectations as he moved up to 155 lb and lost a close decision to Islam Makhachev, showing that he could compete at the higher weight class. Prior to that, Volkanovski had won 22 straight fights, with the last five of those wins coming in five-round title fights, four of which went the distance. In those four decision wins, Volkanovski averaged 112 DraftKings points, while scoring 114 and 136 points in the last two of those, after “only” totalling 103 and 94 points in his first two fights against Holloway. While those slightly lower scores against Holloway in their first two meetings demonstrate that Volkanovski hasn’t always put up massive scores in his 25 minute decision wins, he’s also shown that he’s still improving since then, despite now being 34 years old. Each time he faced Holloway, he scored more points than the last (94 > 103 > 114) and in between the last two Holloway fights, Volkanovski scored 136 points in a decision win over Ortega and 133 points in an early R4 TKO against The Korean Zombie. So just looking at his last three wins, he’s averaged a ridiculous 128 DraftKings points. And in Yair Rodriguez’ last loss, Max Holloway scored an insane 153 DraftKings points in a five-round decision. So there’s no reason to think Volkanovski can’t come in and put up another huge score here, regardless of whether he finds a finish or wins a decision. He has the safest floor and the highest ceiling of any fighter on the slate and has a really good chance to be the highest scoring fighter on the card on both sites. Unfortunately, that’s no secret and he’ll also be the most popular fighter on the slate, which will make it tougher to create unique lineups that include him. That at least creates some merit in looking for ways he doesn’t end up in the optimal, just keep in mind, he’s found his way into the winning DraftKings lineup on the last five slates he’s been on—even in his recent loss. The odds imply Volkanovski has a 74% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Rodriguez relies on striking volume and finishes to score well, and he’s only completed one takedown in his last eight fights. He’s averaged 89 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins, but if we remove his four three-round decision wins that average jumps to 101 points. He landed a career best 159 significant strikes in a 2021 five-round decision loss to Max Holloway, and still scored 81 DraftKings points even in a loss, which would have been good for 111 points had the decision gone his way. While he scored 100 DraftKings points in a last second 5th round knockout against The Korean Zombie in a 2018 victory, Rodriguez wouldn’t have scored very well in a decision had he not connected on that last second elbow. Ignoring the fact that he was losing on the scorecards, he would have totaled just 80 DraftKings points and 91 points on FanDuel if he won a decision instead of landing a knockout. Rodriguez also scored just 85 DraftKings points in a five-round split-decision win over Alex Caceres back in 2016. So overall, Rodriguez has shown a decent ceiling but a lower floor than we’d like in five-round decisions. However, that all matters less here, as his cheap price tag would likely still allow him to serve as a value play even without putting up a huge score, and he’s unlikely to win a decision anyways. He’ll likely need to land a hail mary finish to pull off the upset, as Volkanovski is more active with his striking and takedowns than Rodriguez. And even if Rodriguez can somehow keep the fight competitive for five rounds, it’s hard to see a close decision not going in favor of the champ. So Rodriguez will need to convincingly win to get his hand raised. There’s always a very slight chance he could sneak into winning lineups in a high-volume decision loss, but it would require almost all of the other dogs on the card to lose. Ultimately, the best thing Rodriguez has going for him in tournaments is his low ownership, and he would be an insane leverage play if he does win, as he faces the most popular fighter on the card. The odds imply Rodriguez has a 26% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

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Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

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