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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Omar Morales
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off a low-volume decision win against Shane Young in March 2021, Morales bounced back from his first career loss after he had previously been defeated by Giga Chikadze in an October 2020 decision. That loss was also Morales’ first fight down at Featherweight (145 lb). Prior to that, he had exclusively competed at Lightweight (155 lb), where he started his career off 10-0 and 2-0 in the UFC. However, the majority of those wins came against very inexperienced opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0 , 1-1 , 0-2 , 3-0, 12-2. So his first six opponents came in with one combined win. Considering he won his first 10 pro fights, it was somewhat curious that he decided to drop down a weight class for his 3rd fight in the UFC.
While Morales landed finishes in seven of his eight fights prior to joining the UFC, all four of his UFC matches have ended in decisions and he generally makes for slower paced fights. He’s failed to land more than 69 significant strikes since joining the organization and has never absorbed more than 65. He’s also only been taken down once on eight attempts in his last five fights going back to his DWCS fight and he owns a solid 87% takedown defense. Over that same five fight stretch he’s landed all three of his own takedown attempts, with two of those coming in his most recent fight.
Morales’ last early win came by R2 KO from leg kicks on DWCS and he throws violent kicks. He also split open the shin of Gabriel Benitez in his second UFC bout through leg strikes. However, in his second most recent fight it was Morales who got his leg chewed up by Giga Chikadze, who nearly finished Morales in the third round after knocking him down with an overhand right. Morales recovered, and hung on to lose a decision before bouncing back with a decision win most recently.
Jonathan Pearce
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Pearce had been scheduled to face Gabriel Benitez back in May, but after Benitez missed weight badly, Pearce refused to move forward with the fight even if it meant he got additional compensation.
Prior to that fight getting canceled, Pearce put on a dominating performance in his first UFC win, which came in his second fight with the organization. He bounced back from a demoralizing R1 KO loss in his 2019 UFC debut, where he was knocked out in 93 seconds by a washed up Joe Lauzon—who came in on a three fight skid and an 18 month layoff. Following the loss in his debut, Pearce didn’t fight for 13 months after having shoulder surgery and then dropped back down to 145 lb where he started his pro career. He’s fought as low as 135 lb and as high as 155 lb in the past, but his DWCS fight and UFC debut were both at 155 lb, while his last two fights have both taken place at 145 lb.
In his recent round two KO win, Pearce took on Kai Kamaka, who was coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut. Pearce entered the fight as a massive +260 underdog, but you wouldn’t have guessed it if you watched how the fight played out. Pearce had a commanding size advantage, as he’s 5” taller than Kamaka and was dropping down from 155 lb, while Kamaka used to fight at 135 lb. The fight started off on the feet for the majority of the first round, but Pearce started looking for takedowns and submissions starting late in R1 and smothered Kamaka for the next five minutes until he eventually finished him with ground and pound.
Pearce originally got his shot in the UFC with an ultra high-paced R3 KO on DWCS in 2019. He landed a massive 142 significant strikes, 176 total strikes and four takedowns, before knocking his opponent out in the third round.
Pearce’s last seven and 12 of his 14 pro fights have ended early—including 9 of his 10 wins and 3 of his 4 losses. Prior to losing in his debut, he had won five fights in a row with four KO’s and one submission. Three of those finishes came in R2 and the other two were in R3. Despite all of the early finishes, he only has one R1 win on his record, which came in his third pro fight back in 2015. He’s really better at wearing on opponents as fights go on. However, all three of his early losses occurred in the first round with two by submission and one by KO.
Fight Prediction:
Pearce will have a 1” height advantage, but Morales will own a 2” reach advantage.
Pearce (46% striking defense) has looked very hittable on tape as he’s more focused on churning out offense than mounting any sort of legitimate defense. Morales (63% striking defense) on the other hand, has been very methodical in his approach and we’ve yet to see him be involved in a really up tempo fight. So it will be interesting to see if Pearce is able to force Morales into more of a high-paced brawl or if Morales can continue to slow fights down as he has in the past. We expect it will be somewhere in the middle, especially considering this fight will take place in the larger cage. As long as Morales’ 87% takedown defense holds up, we like him to win the standup battle as he looks like a more powerful and well refined striker. We’ve yet to see Morales land a finish in the UFC, but this is as good a time as any as Pearce has been finished in the first round in three of his four pro losses. There’s still a better chance than not that Morales once again takes this one to the judges, but regardless, we like him to win this fight.
Our favorite bets are Morales’ ML at -158 and his decision line at +170. If you’re looking for longer shots you can consider his submission line at +1100, his ITD line at +240, or his R1 Win line at +600.
DFS Implications:
With low striking volume and few grappling stats, Morales is entirely reliant on landing a finish to score well in DFS. Further supporting that, his DraftKings scores in his four decisions have been 71, 16, 55 and 74. This fight has a 56% implied chance to end in a decision, which isn’t a great sign for Morales’ but does mean there’s a 44% chance it ends early. This is also a pace up spot against an opponent who’s been finished in the first round in three of his four pro losses, so there are several reasons to think we could see a ceiling performance out of Morales here. Morales should also have the opportunity to defend multiple takedowns, as Pearce (60% takedown accuracy) averages 10 attempts per 15 minutes (3rd highest on the slate). That should boost Morales’ FanDuel score, but he’ll still need to about double his normal output to score well there in a decision. The odds imply he has a 58% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in R1.
So first of all, we loved Pearce going into his last fight where he absolutely went off, however, this is a much tougher matchup for him to score well. He’ll also have the field chasing his recent 134 point performance, which will bump his ownership up some. Pearce does his best work when he can take his opponent down and beat them up on the mat or hunt for submissions, but Morales owns a legit 87% takedown defense and has only been taken down once in his last five fights. This definitely looks like a sell high spot on Pearce, but we’ll be circling back around to him in the future when he gets a more favorable matchup and isn’t coming off a massive win. The odds imply he has a 42% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #12
Matthew Semelsberger
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Dropping out of college a semester away from graduating at the end of 2015, former FCS/D1-AA strong safety Matthew Semelsberger chose to pursue MMA instead of finishing school. A year and a half later he went pro in early 2017 and started off his career with back-to-back finishes. Fast forward to 2021 and he's 8-3 as a pro with 8 of his 11 fights ending early.
Semelsberger came into the UFC on a three fight winning streak in 2020 and defeated a terrible Carlton Minus in a high-volume decision. He then knocked out Jason Witt in just 16 seconds in his second UFC match, before taking a step up in competition against Kalinn Williams and losing a hardfought decision in his most recent outing. Despite losing that fight, in some ways it was Semelsberger’s most impressive performance to date as he showed his durability and that he could compete at the next level. Williams led in significant strikes 91-64 and in total strikes 114-68, while neither guy attempted a takedown in the match. Semelsberger is the first person in the UFC to stand and trade with Williams and live to tell about it, as Williams finished his first two opponents in just 57 combined seconds before Michel Pereira used his footwork and takedowns to defeat Williams in a tactical decision without ever having to trade in a phone booth.
Six of Semelsberger’s eight pro wins have come early, with five KOs and one submission. His last three finishes have all been by KO in the first two rounds. Two of his three pro losses have also come early, with a 2017 R3 Brabo Choke Submission in his third pro fight and then a 2018 R3 KO in his 5th pro match. The only decision he’s ever lost came in his last fight.
Semelsberger started off as a 205 lb amateur before dropping down to 185 lb when he went pro. He then dropped down to 170 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since. Semelsberger has solid striking and the drive to push the pace in fights. He notably trains out of a small gym in Maryland with no other UFC fighters and very limited professional sparring partners, which will always be a concern when he faces tougher competition, but this looks like another layup for him.
Martin Sano
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Following the lead of his mentor, Nick Diaz, Sano hasn’t competed or even been booked for a fight in over four and half years since he fought Diego Herzog to a laughable draw in February 2017. In that fight, Sano got mauled on the ground in the first round and then spent the entire second round pushing his opponent up against the cage and occasionally throwing a light knee or two. Both guys looked like they were on quaaludes by the second half of the fight and struggled to do much of anything late. Sano was deducted a point in the third round for a cage grab as Herzog desperately tried to take him down by the ankles as he didn’t have the energy to reach any higher. That’s probably the most gassed we’ve ever seen two fighters in the same fight. It looked like the first round could have been a 10-8 and nothing else really happened for the rest of the fight, so Sano was lucky to get a draw considering the point deduction.
Prior to that, Sano lost in a R1 KO in 2016 and a grappling-heavy decision in 2014. The last time Sano won a fight was April 2014 so it’s been seven and half years since he last got his hand raised.
Sano is part of the Nick Diaz Academy, which is surely the only reason he’s on this card or getting a shot in the UFC. He won his first four pro fights, including a head-scratching R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win over Geoff Neal back in 2013 in what was Sano’s second pro fight and Neal’s third. Sano’s other three pro wins have consisted of a controversial R1 KO that got stopped very quickly along with two more submission victories (R1 and R2).
In no way does Sano look like a UFC talent and we expect his time with the organization to be brief. He’s got poor striking, no cardio and a non-existent takedown defense that would look worse if not for his gassed opponent slapping his ankles in his last fight. Sano has fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb in the past and his most recent fight was at 185 lb, but this next one will be down at 170 lb. Maybe he’ll ask to move it up to 185 lb as well after DIaz did, who knows with these guys.
Fight Prediction:
Semelsberger will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Clearly Nick Diaz finagled Sano onto this card as he did nothing to earn his spot in the UFC. Assuming Sano hasn’t completely changed his entire game in his four and a half years away, which you never know, Semelsberger should win this one by murder in the first half of the fight and we’d be surprised if it made it past the first round. There’s not much else to say here, so yea Semelsberger KO win incoming.
Our favorite bet here is “Semelsberger Wins by R1 KO” at +260, but you can also consider his R2 KO line at +440.
DFS Implications:
Semelsberger put up big DFS scores in his first two UFC fights, with DK/FD totals of 126/114 and 103/123, but then he came back down to earth in his recent decision loss against a much tougher opponent in Khaos Williams. The UFC is throwing him a bone here in Martin Sano and this looks like a prime explosion spot for another early KO win. Semelsberger checks in as the second largest favorite on the slate after only Valentina Shevchenko, and while he should be decently owned, the amount of high priced options on this slate will keep his ownership from getting out of control. We love this spot for Semelsberger and think he has a massive ceiling on both DFS sites. The odds imply he has an 79% chance to win, a 61% chance to get a finish and a 24% chance it comes in R1.
Sano doesn’t have much going for him here. He hasn’t fought in four and a half years and hasn’t won in seven and a half years. It appears the only reason he’s getting a shot in the UFC is because his buddy Nick Diaz got him on the card and Sano has gone 0-2-1 in his last three fights. Sano has shown us nothing to think he can win this fight, but in fairness, it remains a mystery what he's been doing since 2017, so that makes this a higher variance spot. Still, we’d be surprised if he came out and looked good, so we have almost no interest in playing him at all in DFS. The only reason to even consider him is his low ownership in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 21% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #11
Cody Brundage
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Karl Roberson had originally been scheduled to face UFC newcomer Nick Maximov in this spot, but Roberson dropped out midweek and Brundage immediately stepped in. Brundage had already been training for his second appearance on DWCS, which was coming up in just a couple of weeks.
On his first trip on DWCS in September 2020, Brundage suffered his first career loss at the hands of UFC fighter William Knight. Brundage got Knight face down on the mat very early in the fight and was hammering him with ground and pound, but Knight was able to survive and lock up Brundage’s hands to nearly force a stand up from the ref. As Brundage worked to free his hands Knight was able to return to his feet. Brundage immediately shot for another takedown, but had his head too low and Knight landed half a dozen heavy elbows that quickly stopped the fight.
Since then, Brundage won a February 2021 LFA match with a R3 Arm-Triangle Choke. He looked more willing to remain on his feet early in that fight before working in his takedowns late to get a submission finish.
A former college wrestler, Brundage is now 6-1 as a pro with three wins by KO, two by submission and one decision. His only career loss came against Knight. Four of his seven pro fights have ended in the first round (3-1), and his last three fights have all ended early. His last two wins were both by Arm-Triangle Choke. Brundage is married to former UFC fighter Amanda Bobby Brundage who went 2-4 in the UFC before being released.
Overall, Brundage seems like a powerful wrestler, who’s still pretty raw on the feet and sometimes gets caught admiring his own handiwork after he lands a shot. He doesn’t appear to have the highest fight IQ, but he’s still relatively early in his career with just seven pro fights to his name. He hasn’t faced the toughest competition, but he does have one match against a current UFC fighter at least—albeit one that lasted just a couple of minutes and ended in a loss. Here are the records of Brundage’s opponents coming into his fights: 1-1, 0-1, 2-0, 13-15, 13-16, 7-1 and 4-1. Brundage has competed anywhere from 185 lb to 205 lb in the past.
Nick Maximov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Another Nick Diaz protege, Maximov is at least coming off a win on DWCS last November in a bizarre decision fought up a weight class (or two) at Heavyweight against a massive man in Oscar Cota. Maximov normally competes at Light Heavyweight or even Middleweight, which was clear if you watched the matchup as he weighed in at just 209 lb, while his opponent tipped the scales at 263.5 lb. Maximov was immediately able to take down his larger foe as he caught the first kick Cota threw and the entire fight played out on the mat.
Maximov’s second most recent fight was a R2 Submission win in the LFA in September 2020, where Maximov relentlessly shot for takedowns from the start, landing five in the first round and seven overall before finishing the fight late in R2.
While Maximov enters the UFC with a 6-0 record, he’s exclusively fought questionable competition, who entered with records of 11-2 (DWCS HW), 1-1, 1-10, 0-0, 0-1, and 0-2. Maximov has also competed in 10 grappling bouts (5-5) since he turned pro in MMA in 2018 and he really doesn’t appear to offer much in terms of striking. He does have two wins by R1 KO, but those came against 0-2 and 0-0 opponents. He also has three wins by submission, with two ending in R2 and one in R1. The first time he saw the judges was in his recent DWCS fight.
Maximov is the second Nick Diaz Academy student on this card and while we have low expectations for that group, we don’t really know how they’ll fare in the UFC as we don’t have much to go off of. While Sano clearly cashed in a favor to be on this card, Maximov did win a fight on DWCS and has at least been competing—even if it has been against suspect talent. Maximov is a BJJ brown belt and wrestled in college and it’s clear grappling is his path to winning fights.
This will be Maximov’s first time competing down at 185 lb as a pro. His last fight was technically at Heavyweight, but he weighed in at 209 lb and all but one of his previous fights had been at Light Heavyweight, with the one exception coming in a 195 lb Catchweight in his first pro fight. He did have a couple of amateur fights down at Middleweight, so it’s not entirely new to him, but since 2018 he hasn’t had to make that 185 lb mark.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0”, but Maximov will have a 4” reach advantage.
This sets up as a wrestling match between two former college wrestlers who are both making their respective UFC debuts. While both guys rely heavily on their wrestling, Brundage looks more willing to stand and trade on the feet, while Maximov has exclusively looked to wrestle early and often. That could give Brundage the advantage if he can keep this fight standing, but it’s tougher to say how things will play out on the mat. When Brundage was first announced as the late replacement, Maximov opened as a massive favorite, but that line quickly came down a fair amount, so the early action appears to be on Brundage. Prior to going on DWCS, Maximov had never faced an opponent with a winning record, and both of these two fighters remain somewhat of a mystery in terms of their actual talent. We could see a close back and forth grappling battle or either of these two could completely dominate the other and end things quickly. We don’t have a great read on this one, and there appears to be a wide range of outcomes. While it’s really tough to say who wins this fight, we do like it to end early.
Our top bet here is FDGTD at -150.
DFS Implications:
Roberson dropped out of this fight on Wednesday after DraftKings had already released the pricing for Maximov when the odds were set as a pick ‘em, so Maximov is the glaring value play this week, similar to Rongzhu last week. And just as Rongzhu was 43% owned last week in tournaments, underpriced favorites facing late replacement opponents are always massively owned. We now have a pretty good sample size to look back at for this. Going back to May 2020, underpriced favorites facing late replacement opponents have gone 11-2 with an average DraftKings ownership of 54%. The two losses came when Justin Jaynes (11% owned) knocked out Frank Camacho (62% owned) on June 6th 2020 and when Kevin Croom (6% owned) submitted Roosevelt Roberts (56% owned) on September 12th 2020. In 2021, underpriced favorites (7) facing late replacement opponents have gone 7-0 with an average ownership of 46%. They averaged 120.31 DraftKings points and ended up in the optimal lineup 85.71% of the time. The only one of the seven not to crack the optimal lineup was David Dvorak, who still won the fight in the first round but only scored 94.29 DraftKings points (7th highest on the slate). One thing to keep in mind is that all seven of those winning underpriced favorites had at least one UFC fight under their belt, whereas Maximov will be making his UFC debut just like Brundage. Add in the fact that this is a PPV card in front of a rare crowd and there’s a lot of variables at play here. The line has also been moving in Brunage’s favor after he opened as a large dog, which will be something to keep a close eye on.
Maximov is a one dimensional grappler so he makes for a better play on DraftKings compared to FanDuel regardless of his price. His last two finishes were both by Rear-Naked Choke Submission In the first two rounds and he doesn’t appear to be much of a KO threat, despite the fact that he has a pair of R1 KOs on his record (in his 1st and 3rd pro fights against 0-2 and 0-0 opponents). He has the potential to rack up a ton of takedowns and control time, but that all depends on how his wrestling stacks up against Brundage’s, which is unclear going in. Both guys were college wrestlers and it’s possible that ends up as a wash. Sometimes we see matchups like this turn into striking battles as neither fighter is willing to test the grappling of the other. We don’t really expect that out of Maximov unless Brundage can stuff all of his early takedown attempts. This is a high variance fight that you’ll want to have exposure to on both sides. The odds imply Maximov has a 57% chance to win, a 32% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance it comes in R1.
Brundage is a similar style fighter to Maximov, except that he looks a little more willing to trade on the feet at times. He showed his strength when he was able to quickly take UFC fighter William Knight to the mat on DWCS in 2020, but Knight was able to return to his feet and land a R1 KO shortly after. Brundage should benefit from the fact that he was already training for an upcoming October 5th fight, so we expect his conditioning to be fine, especially considering he trains at altitude out of Factory X in Colorado. If Brundage can keep this fight standing, he has a good chance to win the striking battle, but it’s more or less a coin flip if the fight hits the mat. We don’t fully know what to expect from either of these two guys making their UFC debuts on a PPV card in front of a rare crowd. There’s a massively wide range of outcomes, and you’ll want to position yourself to benefit from variance. Historically these have been explosion spots when we get short notice replacements, but there’s always a chance both of these two fall on their face for their debuts. Brundage does notably have finishes in five of his six career wins, so he has plenty of theoretical upside. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #10
Uros Medic
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Extending his professional record to 7-0 in his recent UFC debut, Medic got another TKO stoppage, this time against a terrible Aalon Cruz in under two minutes. Medic has still never been in a fight that lasted longer than six minutes and only one of his seven pro fights has even made it out of the first round. He’s finished four straight opponents in 3:38 or less and has five wins by KO and two by submission on his record. Despite the submission wins earlier in his career, Medic appears to be a one dimensional striker and will likely run into trouble in the grappling department in the not too distant future.
Prior to his R1 KO win in his debut, Medic punched his ticket to the UFC with another R1 KO on DWCS in August 2020, and has now knocked out three straight opponents in three minutes or less. Despite his perfect finishing record, it’s important to keep in mind that Medic is coming off the Alaskan regional scene and has been facing a much lower level of competition. Here are the records of his seven opponents entering his fights: 2-0, 4-4, 1-4, 0-1, and 5-0, 7-1 (DWCS) and 8-3 (UFC Debut).
Medic notably started his pro career at 185 lb in 2016, but dropped down to 170 lb for his second pro fight. After fighting his next four matches at 170 lb, he then dropped another weight class down to 155 lb when he went on DWCS and that’s where he’s stayed. So he’s got good size for the 155 lb division, but now he’ll face an even taller and longer Lightweight in Jalin Turner.
Jalin Turner
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Coming off a pair of R2 wins in 2020 against short notice replacements, Turner had first been scheduled to face Jamie Mullarkey in February 2020, but Mullarkey dropped out and Josh Culibao stepped in. Then Turner was set to take on Thiago Moises in September 2020, but Moises tested positive for COVID and Brok Weaver stepped in. Turner finished Culibao with ground and pound before choking Weaver out, both in the second round. Culibao was notably fighting up a weight class and moved back down to 145 lb following the loss and Brok Weaver went 1-2 in the UFC with his only win coming by DQ before being released following the loss to Turner. The fight against Weaver took place at a 165 lb Catchweight, but now Turner will be moving back down to 155 lb.
Prior to that pair of wins, Turner went 1-2 in his first three UFC fights with a R1 KO loss to stud Vicente Luque in his 2018 UFC debut, a R1 KO win against Callan Potter in 2019 and a decision loss to Matt Frevola in 2019. The loss to Luque notably came up at 170 lb, whereas Turner has fought the vast majority of his career at 155 lb.
All 10 of Turner’s pro wins have come early, and while he’s a BJJ brown belt, eight of his victories have come by KO, with just two ending in submissions. He’s been knocked out three times in his career, including twice in the first round, and he’s also lost both of the decisions he’s been to. Ten of his 15 fights have ended in R1 (8-2), but his last three have all made it to round two.
Fight Prediction:
Turner will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
Medic has never been in an MMA fight that lasted longer than six minutes, so it will be interesting to see how his cardio looks in the back half of this fight if it actually gets there. Frankly, we’d be somewhat surprised if Medic didn’t gas out midway through the second round. Both of these two have seen the majority of their fights end in R1, with 67% of Turner’s career fights lasting no more than five minutes and 86% of Medic’s. They also both have good striking, but Turner should have a significant grappling advantage. Whether or not he actually looks to take the fight to the ground is a different story, as he’s only landed two takedowns on three attempts in his last six fights. So he could look to test Medic on the feet and keep his grappling in his back pocket in case he gets in trouble. Medic is the more aggressive striker, while Turner will have a significant reach advantage and we wouldn’t be surprised to see either guy finish the other. With that said, with a much more diverse and refined skill set, we like Turner’s chances to pull off the upset.
The safest bet here is “Fight Does Not Go the Distance” at -175. We also like “Medic R1 Win” at +430, “Turner R2 Win” at +1000, “Turner ITD” at +270, “Fight Ends in R1” at +200 and “Fight Doesn’t Start R3” at -108.
DFS Implications:
Medic is coming off a scoring explosion in his UFC debut, which will surely drive up his ownership some, but this slate has so many big names and high scorers that it shouldn’t get too out of control. In just 100 seconds of action, Medic landed 45 significant strikes and 55 total strikes while absorbing exactly ZERO on his way to a near flawless first round finish. That was good for 122 points on DraftKings and 145 points on FanDuel. Now he checks in as the third cheapest favorite on DraftKings and the cheapest on FanDuel, so look for him to be an especially popular FanDuel play. His ceiling is undeniable and so far he has put up one big performance after the next with seven straight finishes in six minutes or less in his seven pro fights. Just keep in mind he’s been fighting exclusively poor competition and he’s coming off the questionable Alaskan fighting scene. This will be the first legitimate opponent Medic has faced in his career and we should learn a lot about him from this fight. This looks like a fight that should produce a big scorer for whoever wins, so you’ll want solid exposure to both sides. The odds imply Medic has a 53% chance to win, a 36% chance to get a finish and a 15% chance it comes in R1.
Turner has shown a huge DFS ceiling with DK/FD totals of 125/165, 107/132, and 129/120 in his three UFC wins. He averages the fourth most significant strikes landed on the slate at 6.2/min as well as 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He also landed two knockdowns in his most recent win and has shown the ability to fill up a stat sheet. All 10 of his career wins have come early, with eight in R1 and then the most recent two in R2. It’s been a year since Turner last fought, which is of some slight concern, but he looked good in his last two outings, albeit against lower level competition. Considering Medic only has one UFC fight to his name and it lasted just 100 seconds, this is a high variance spot with Medic still remaining more or less of an unknown in terms of his overall skillset. It’s possible Turner can get him down and simply dominate him on the mat or that Medic will gas out midway through the second round. All of the things we don’t know about Medic (cardio, grappling, etc.) appear to potentially benefit Turner in this fight. The odds imply Turner has a 47% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #9
Taila Santos
4th UFC Fight (2-1)This fight had been scheduled for May 8th, but Modafferi pulled out in early April due to a Meniscus tear and is now stepping back inside the Octagon just five months after breaking that news, which seems rather fast. Santos then had two scheduled fights with Mandy Bohm canceled in August and September due to visa issues, but will now circle back around to the Modafferi matchup. Santos is a solid talent but struggles with fights getting canceled. She had three canceled or rescheduled leading up to this event, two prior to her last fight, three before that, two going into her DWCS fight and three leading up to her last fight before going on DWCS. So she’s had five fights actually happen compared to 13 canceled or moved from 2016 on. And really it’s just bad luck, as most of those are from her opponents withdrawing. Back in December 2020, Santos had been scheduled to fight Maryna Moroz, but Moroz withdrew and was replaced by Montana De La Rosa. However, then De La Rosa tested positive for COVID the day of the event and that fight was also scratched.
Now 17-1 as a pro, maybe people are just scared to fight her. She has 10 wins by KO, two by submission and five decision victories. Her only career loss came in a decision in her UFC debut. While all three of her UFC fights have gone the distance, as did her DWCS match before that, Santos came into the UFC in 2019 with a perfect 15-0 record that included 11 R1 finishes as well as one in R2. She won a decision on DWCS in 2018, which was still enough to get her a shot in UFC.
However, in her UFC debut she lost a split-decision to a highly suspect fighter in Mara Romero Borella, who’s now lost five of her last six fights. Borella was able to control Santos on the ground and against the fence for extended periods of time in the first two rounds, which is obviously concerning. Santos looked better in the third round but it was too little too late as she ended up losing the decision.
Santos was previously fighting at 134 lb right before joining the UFC, but she then dropped down to 125 lb where she’s stayed since. She’s only fought four times since 2016, after she took some time off following a 2016 fight to have a baby. It’s possible that after the extended layoff and major life event that she’s simply not the same finisher she used to be. Or it’s also possible that her domination on the lower levels just didn’t translate well into the UFC—as is often the case with fighters making the step up. Overall she has proven herself to be a powerful fighter who can compete on the mat or the feet, but it remains to be seen if she can be much of a finisher at this level. Now she gets an opponent who hasn’t been finished since 2011.
Roxanne Modafferi
11th UFC Fight (4-6)Coming off a recent knee injury and now 38 years old going against a 17-1 28-year-old opponent, Modafferi has more red flags than wacky wigs. We like to point out patterns as much as anybody, but the fact that Modafferi has alternated wins and losses over her last 10 fights and is coming off a loss should not be considered a major predictive indicator going into this next match. Modafferi would probably be 1-4 in her last five fights had it not been for a Maycee Barber knee injury early in their 2020 match. Modafferi’s only other win in her last five fights was against Andre Lee, who actually outlanded Modafferi 97-60 in significant strikes, but Modafferi led in total strikes 129-118 and landed four takedowns with nearly five minutes of control time compared to three takedowns with 97 seconds of control time for Lee. For what it’s worth, Modafferi has also lost two grappling matches since her last fight and one before that, so she’s really struggled to win anything lately.
Modafferi’s last seven fights have all ended in decisions and she hasn’t been finished in her last 19 fights going back to 2011 when she was submitted in the third round via Rear-Naked Choke. In her 43 pro fights, she has only been finished early in 4 of her 18 losses—once by KO (2010 R3 KO by Slam) and three times by submission (2006 R1 Kimura, 2009 R1 Armbar & 2011 Rear-Naked Choke). Of her 25 pro wins, four have come by KO, five by submission and 16 in decisions.
Fight Prediction:
Modafferi will have a 1” height and reach advantage, but Santos is 10 years younger than the 38-year-old Modafferi.
Modafferi relies on her grappling to win fights, and we just watched Taila Santos absolutely dominate grappler Gillian Robertson on the ground for three rounds, so this looks like a rough matchup for Modafferi. We expect Santos to similarly dominate Modafferi wherever this fight takes place, but will still likely struggle to get a finish barring a knee reinjury for Modafferi. At 38 years old, it is possible Modafferi has gone off a cliff after her recent injury, but we won’t know that until the fight starts. So while a Santos finish is possible, it’s way more likely she wins a decision here.
At -145, it’s hard to get excited about Santo’s decision line, but it’s certainly the safest bet. You can also consider her KO line at +420 or her ITD line at +290, or her R1 submission line at +2700 if you really want to get crazy, but we’re more looking to pass on this fight.
DFS Implications:
Santos appears to have an extremely safe floor, but the bigger question is whether or not she has a usable ceiling. In Modafferi’s last four decision losses, her opponents have put up DK/FD scores of 93/116, 74/78, 75/97 and 93/93. Modafferi went just 1 for 19 on takedowns across those four matches, so it’s not surprising that her opponents averaged 96 points on FanDuel, but just 84 points on DraftKings in those four fights. Modafferi averages six attempted takedowns per 15 minutes, but has just a 23% career takedown accuracy, while Santos owns a legit 85% takedown defense. So Santos has the strong potential to prop up her FanDuel score with multiple takedowns defended and she looks like a better play over there. She likely needs a finish to put up a big score on either site, but we could also see her rack up a ton of control time again on DraftKings to help her score there. While a ceiling performance is still relatively unlikely from Santos, her low ownership and -400 moneyline make her an intriguing contrarian tournament play. The odds imply she has a 77% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Despite her last three wins ending in decisions, Modafferi managed to score 96, 95, and 109 DraftKings points in those fights. She’s been a major beneficiary of the new DraftKings scoring system, as she typically racks up a decent amount of control time and a large number of strikes that don’t register as significant. We’re definitely not predicting her to win, but if she does somehow pull off the massive upset she’ll likely score decently even in a decision. The odds imply she has a 23% chance to win, a 9% chance it comes early and a 5% chance to get a round one finish.
Fight #8
Chris Daukaus
4th UFC Fight (3-0)This is the third time this matchup has been booked after COVID complications forced it off both the July 24th and July 31st cards.
Daukaus exploded onto the UFC scene in 2020 with three straight violent first round knockouts. After relieving Parker Porter from consciousness in August 2020 in what was the UFC debut for each fighter, Daukaus silenced doubters with another R1 knockout, this time against the previously undefeated Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira. The UFC then most recently paired him up with Alexey Oleynik, presumably in an effort to finally kill off Oleynik and lower the average age on their group health plan. Daukaus passed that test as well as he remained on his feet and worked Oleynik’s head like it was a speed bag on the fence to finish the fight less than two minutes into the first round.
Daukaus’ weight in each of those fights was a hotly debated topic, as he came in at 241 lb in his Heavyweight debut and then just 227 lb for his second UFC fight before tipping the scales at 234 lb most recently. He seems to know what he’s doing as his lighter weight appears to give him the speed advantage while he’s not lacking in power.
Impressively, Daukaus’ last nine fights have all ended in KOs in the first two rounds, with him winning eight of those. He’s currently 11-3 as a pro with 10 wins by KO and one by decision. All three of his losses have ended early, with two KOs and one submission.
Daukaus trains at a smaller gym with no big names, so it will be interesting to see what his grappling looks like if this fight actually makes it to the mat, but he is notably a BJJ black belt. We also don’t really know what his cardio looks like later in fights as he’s only been past the second round once in his career, which was in a 2016 decision. For those of you looking for additional reasons to like Daukaus, Saturday will be his birthday.
Shamil Abdurakhimov
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Abdurakhimov hasn’t fought in just over two years as his last five bookings have all fallen through. Now 40 years old, you have to wonder how he’ll look following the extended layoff. The last time we saw Abdurakhimov he was getting taken down and beaten up by Curtis Blaydes, who finished Abdurakhimov midway through the second round with ground and pound.
Just prior to that Abdurakhimov knocked out Marcin Tybura in April 2019 in a fight between two Heavyweights with grappling ability that played out entirely on the feet. Abdurakhimov is from Dagestan so you know he can at least wrestle a little. He actually started off as a freestyle wrestler and is a Master of Sport in Wysha Sana and an International Master of Sports in Kickboxing. Still, he’s only landed seven takedowns in eight UFC fights and none in his last two matches. Four of his seven takedowns came in a 2016 R4 KO loss to Derrick Lewis and he’s only landed two in his four fights since. We also saw him get dominated on the mat in his most recent fight against Blaydes.
Four of Abdurakhimov’s last five fights have ended in KOs, with the one exception coming in a 2018 decision against the ageless Andrei Arlovski, who basically always fights to decisions. All three of Abdurakhimov’s UFC losses have come by KO, while he’s also been submitted once prior to joining the UFC and lost a 2009 decision to Thiago Santos before either guy joined the UFC. Of Abdurakhimov’s 20 pro wins, nine have come by KO, four have ended in submissions and seven went the distance. So he’s won seven of the eight decisions he’s been to in his career. While two of Abdurakhimov’s last three wins have come by KO, three of his overall five UFC wins have ended in decisions.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” with a 76” reach, but Daukaus is nine years younger than the 40-year-old Abdurakhimov.
Abdurakhimov has dangerous striking and will sometimes mix in his grappling, but we have serious concerns about his age coming off a two year layoff and going against a speedy power puncher like Daukaus. It would make sense for Abdurakhimov to look to grapple against Daukaus, but Daukaus quietly holds a black belt in BJJ and has dispatched two straight grapplers who likely each came in with similar intentions. We expect Daukaus’ speed and power to be too much for Abdurakhimov and for Daukaus to notch his 5th straight early KO win (4th in the UFC). We’d be shocked if this fight made it out of the second round and expect Daukause to notch his 5th straight first round knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Daukaus Wins by R1 KO” at +370.
DFS Implications:
Daukaus leads the DraftKings slate in average points scored at 124.2, which should drive up his ownership, but less so than normal with three five round fights on this card and so many high priced options to choose from. Daukaus was 48% owned as a -200 favorite on a 14 fight card for his last fight and we don’t expect him to get very close to that number here. He was somewhat unfortunate in his last outing as he failed to land a knockdown as the fight was stopped on the feet. He still scored 104 DraftKings points and 123 points on FanDuel, but it failed to reach the 141/132 and 127/146 DK/FD totals that he put up in his first two UFC fights. In fairness, he ridiculously landed two knockdowns in each of his first two fights, so he was due for some regression. One thing to note with Abdurakhimov is that despite having three TKO losses in the UFC, he’s never been knocked down. There’s a good chance that changes come Saturday, but it is somewhat interesting. Overall, 10 of Daukaus’ 11 career wins have come by KO and he’s knocked out his last four opponents in the first round. When you combine that with the fact that he’s going against a 40-year-old opponent who’s coming off a two year layoff and has been knocked out in all three of his UFC losses, this looks like another smash spot for Daukaus. The odds imply Daukaus has 66% chance to win, a 42% chance to get a finish and an 18% chance it comes in R1.
Abdurakhimov is a low-volume striker who averages just 2.45 SSL/min and only occasionally mixes in his grappling. He’s therefore entirely reliant on landing a finish to score well in DFS, although he has managed to do that in two of his last three wins where he returned DraftKings scores of 94 and 102. He’s failed to top 66 DraftKings points in any of his three UFC decision wins and even at his cheaper price tag is unlikely to serve as a value play without a finish This looks like an incredibly tough spot for the 40-year-old coming off a two year layoff and getting thrown into a buzzsaw like Daukaus who has knocked out his last four opponents. You’re really just relying on the old saying of “anything can happen in a Heavyweight fight.” In fairness, that’s true, but sometimes overapplied. The best thing Abdurakhimov has going for him is that he’ll be incredibly low owned and makes for a solid leverage play in tournaments against a popular play in Daukaus. The odds imply Abdurakhimov has a 34% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #7
Dan Hooker
17th UFC Fight (10-6)This fight almost didn’t happen as both guys scrambled to get their visas in time to hop on last minute flights to arrive in Vegas just in time to weigh in. Hooker actually talked about how the City Kickboxing team is considering a permanent move to the US to avoid all of these travel and quarantine complications.
Coming off just the second KO loss of his career, Hooker welcomed Michael Chandler into the UFC and got knocked out midway through the first round. Chandler landed 17 significant strikes, while Hooker landed just 8 in a slow paced first round before the abrupt finish.
The only other time Hooker has been knocked out in 30 pro fights came at the hands of Edson Barboza in the third round of a 2018 fight from an accumulation of strikes more than anything else. While he has been submitted twice—both times by Rear-Naked Choke in the second round—those came in 2010 and 2012 prior to joining the UFC. The other six of his 10 pro losses all ended in decisions and despite his recent early loss, Hooker is incredibly tough.
Of his 20 career wins, 17 have come early, with 10 KOs and 7 submissions. However, his last two wins both went the distance, including a five round split-decision over Paul Felder. Hooker was notably the first person to ever finish Gilbert Burns early until Kamaru Usman recently became the second. Hooker knocked Burns out in 2018 with a R1 KO.
Hooker started a little slow in the UFC. After joining in 2014, he alternated wins and losses over his first six fights to grind out a 3-3 early UFC record. Since then he’s gone 7-3 but has now dropped two in a row following a violent five round decision loss to Dustin Poirier and then the recent R1 KO loss to Chandler. This will be an important fight for Hooker to win to avoid going on a three fight skid.
Nasrat Haqparast
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Haqparast is coming off a decision win over UFC newcomer Rafa Garcia and has now gone the distance in five of his seven UFC fights. He outlanded Garcia 99-52 in significant strikes while he missed on both of his takedown attempts, with Garcia missing on all three of his attempts. That was Haqparast’s second straight decision win after he defeated another UFC newcomer in Alex Munoz just prior to that.
Leading up to the pair of recent decisions, Haqparast was knocked out by Drew Dober just 70 seconds into the first round after Haqparast knocked out Joaquim Silva in the second round before that. Haqparast’s first three UFC fights all went the distance with him winning the most recent two after losing his 2017 debut.
All nine of Haqparast’s pre-UFC fights ended early (8-1 only losing his first pro fight). Nine of his 13 career wins have come by KO (6 in R1, 2 in R2 & 1 in R3), while the other four have ended in decisions. Other than getting knocked out by Dober, his only other early loss came by submission in his first pro fight all the way back in 2012. The one other loss of his career came by decision in his 2017 UFC debut.
Haqparast has spent the majority of his pro career in the 155 lb division, but he did move up to 170 lb for a three fight period in 2014 and 2015. He notably went 3-0 at 170 lb before moving back down to 155 lb.
A pure striker, Haqparast has only landed one takedown in seven UFC fights. However, he also has an impressive 84% takedown defense and has only been brought down once in his last six fights, on 15 total attempts. For context, three of those six opponents didn’t attempt a takedown, but Haqparast successfully defended 7 of 8 attempts in his second most recent fight against a strong wrestler in Alexander Munoz and then all three of Garcia’s attempts most recently. Marc Diakiese also notably went 0 for 4 in Haqparast’s second UFC fight and Marcin Held went 3 for 10 in his debut.
Fight Prediction:
Hooker will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This sets up as an exciting striking battle between two durable fighters—and yes we still think Hooker is durable despite getting knocked out in the first round of his last fight. Both guys throw a decent amount of volume, with Hooker averaging 4.95 SSL/min and Haqparast 5.81/min. Hooker also notably absorbs an average of 4.92 SS/min (6th highest on the slate), while Haqparast absorbs an average of 3.23/min. We expect this to play out entirely on the feet and while there’s a good chance it ends in a decision, both of them have solid knockout power and the ability to finish the other. We could see it going either way, but we give Hooker the slight edge to win by decision.
While we’re leaning that Hooker wins this one, it’s close, and we see more value in Haqparast’s decision line at +340 than Hooker’s at +210. We also like betting the fight goes the distance at -106.
DFS Implications:
Hooker’s last three round decision scored 85 DraftKings points and 100 points on FanDuel, indicating that he needs a finish on DraftKings to return value, but has a chance of getting there even in a decision on FanDuel. He lands a solid amount of volume, but only occasionally lands takedowns with zero landed in six of his last eight fights. Once you factor in Haqparast’s elite 84% takedown defense, it’s unlikely Hooker will boost his score with many if any takedowns here. Haqparast has notably only been knocked out once in his career, so it’s not an easy matchup to get a finish by any means, but also not an impossible one. We’re expecting an intense boxing match with plenty of opportunities to land a fight ending blow. Hooker will likely go somewhat lower owned after suffering two straight losses including a R1 KO loss most recently, so he makes for an interesting leverage play in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 28% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance it comes in R1.
Similar to Hooker, Haqparast is entirely reliant on striking and finishes to score well in DFS and his only takedown in seven UFC fights came back in his 2017 debut. He has landed above 100 significant strikes twice, but has only scored above 88 DraftKings points once. That interestingly came in a decision and not his one finish since joining the organization, which only scored 88 points in a low-volume R2 KO. His last two decisions were only good for 70 and 72 DraftKings points but scored 88 and 103 points on FanDuel. So he’s more likely to serve as a value play on FanDuel in a decision. With that said, Haqparast makes for an interesting underdog play on both sites in a close fight that could go a lot of ways. Both of these guys were also scrambling all week to get the visas and hop on last minute flights to Vegas, so there are some additional variables at play that make this a higher variance spot than normal. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #6
Merab Dvalishvili
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Fresh off a decision win against a tough opponent in Cody Stamann (75% takedown defense), Dvalishvili extended his winning streak to six, with all six of those wins going the distance. Dvalishvili landed five takedowns on 11 attempts in that fight and has now landed a total of 59 takedowns in his eight UFC fights. He also showed improved striking as he outlanded Stamann 71-48 in significant strikes and 178-73 in total strikes. Stamann was able to get Dvalishvili down once on four attempts, but Dvalishvili showed he can compete with anybody. That fight had been scheduled for December 5th 2020 instead of May 1st 2021, but Stamann withdrew back in December and then so did Raoni Barcelos, hence Dvalishvili only fighting once in the last 13 months.
While Dvalishvili looks unstoppable now as he’s cruised to six straight, he was actually close to getting cut early in his UFC career as he actually lost his first two UFC matches with a questionable split-decision against Frankie Saenz and a weird last second submission loss to Ricky Simon where it looked like he was never out.
A takedown tornado, Dvalishvili landed 11, 6, 5, 5, 12 and 13 takedowns in his first six UFC fights. However, he then faced the elite takedown defense of John Dodson in his second most recent match and was only able to ground him twice on a ridiculous 20 attempts. Despite struggling to get the fight to the ground, Dvalishvili came out ahead in significant strikes 50-27 in what ended in a disappointing decision.
Dvalishvili is now 13-4 as a pro, with two wins by KO, one by submission and 10 decisions. All of his finishes came prior to joining the UFC and he really isn’t much of a threat to end fights early, but he has shown some improved striking recently. Two of his three career losses came by decision, and the only time he’s ever been “finished” was in the weird post round/fight stoppage against Ricky Simon. He unsurprisingly leads the slate in takedowns at 7.4 per 15 minutes despite having just a 43% takedown accuracy rate. Now he’ll face an opponent who’s only been taken down three times in nine UFC fights.
Marlon Moraes
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Coming off back-to-back KO losses, Moraes has now lost three of his last four fights in progressively worse fashion (R3 KO > R2 KO > R1 KO). He’s actually currently on pace to get knocked out before the first round starts in his next fight. All of those losses came against tough opponents in Henry Cejudo, Cory Sandhagem and Rob Font, but the tread on Moraes’ tires appears to be running thin as he prepares for his 33rd pro fight. Moraes’ only win since February 2019 came in a split-decision against Jose Aldo.
Only three of Moraes’ nine UFC opponents have attempted a takedown on him—Henry Cejudo went 1 for 4, John Dodson went 2 for 4 and Raphael Assuncao went 0 for 1 (the first time they fought). None of Moraes’ last three opponents have attempted to take him down and he currently owns a 66% takedown defense.
After losing his 2017 UFC debut by split-decision against Raphael Assuncao, Moraes fought to another close split-decision against John Dodoson, but that time had it swing his way. He then really made a name for himself in the UFC with three straight first round finishes, including a 63 second KO of Aljamain Sterling, a 33 second KO of Jimmie Rivera, and a 197 second Guillotine Submission win over Raphael Assuncao to avenge his earlier loss. The flashy four fight winning streak was enough to get Moraes a title shot against Henry Cejudo, but Cejudo ended up knocking Moraes out in the third round. Moraes bounced back from the loss with another close split-decision in December 2019, that time against Jose Aldo. Since then he was knocked out twice in 2020.
Moraes notably holds black belts in both Muay Thai and BJJ. He’s now 23-8-1 as a pro, with 10 wins by KO, six by submission and seven decisions. Seven of his eight career losses have come early, with five KOs, two submissions and one just one decision loss. Moraes competed some up at 145 lb early in his career and seems to struggle with his cardio at times later in fights down at 135 lb. Obviously that could be concerning against a workhorse like Dvalishvili who never gets tired.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’6” but Dvalishvili will have a 1” reach advantage.
With six of his last seven fights ending early, Moraes has generally been a finish or get finished type of fighter, while Dvalishvili is the exact opposite. It will be interesting to see which of those holds true here, but it’s possible Dvalishvili can wear Moraes down and finish him late. With that said, it’s still more likely that Dvalishvili simply continues to wear him down all the way to the final bell. While we question how much Moraes has left in the tank, he’s still dangerous with both his striking and his submissions, so there’s always a chance he lands a hail mary to win this fight, but we like Dvalishvili to extend his winning streak to seven here.
There’s not much to bet here outside of “Dvalishvili Wins by Decision” at +125, but you can consider his R3 win line at +1400 as well as a dart throw and just hope Moraes gasses out late.
DFS Implications:
Dvalishvili has been a DFS wrecking machine with DK/FD scores of 108/107, 74/62, 148/152, 136/130, 124/83, and 129/87 in his six UFC decision wins. So he’s scored 108 or more DraftKings points in five of his six wins and 107 or more FanDuel points in three of his six wins. He “only” landed five takedowns in each of his first two UFC wins, while accruing massive amounts of control time and ground strikes, so it’s only natural that those two victories scored significantly better on DraftKings than FanDuel. Since then he’s increased both his takedown and significant striking numbers, so his scores have balanced out between the two DFS platforms. The only time Dvalishvili has ever really struggled in a win came against the elite takedown defense of John Dodson, who never gets taken down by anybody. While Moraes has only been taken down three times in his UFC career, there have only been nine attempts, so his 66% takedown defense is based on a pretty limited sample size. Therefore it’s hard to really know how it will hold up against Dvalishvili, making this a little bit more of a tougher spot for projecting takedowns numbers. We still expect Dvalishvili to have success, it’s just hard to know if that will translate to 5 takedowns or 15. So this is a decent matchup, but not necessarily a great one for Dvalishvili to go full nuclear. The odds imply he has a 69% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in R1.
Moraes has really struggled lately as he’s been knocked out in three of his last four fights and won a low-volume split-decision against Jose Aldo in the other one. While he put up big scores in his last three finishes, he looks like a hail mary R1 or bust play in an incredibly tough matchup. The best thing he has going for him is that he’ll be a low owned leverage play against the ever popular Dvalishvili. The odds imply Moraes has a 31% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish and a7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #5
Jessica Andrade
20th UFC Fight (12-7)Looking to bounce back from a failed title shot, Andrade got abused by champion Valentina Shevchenko, who took Andrade down a perfect seven times on seven attempts and outlanded her 32-10 in significant strikes before finishing her with ground and pound midway through the second round. That was just Andrade’s second pro fight at 125 lb, after she spent the rest of her career at 135 lb and 115 lb.
Andrade has now lost three of her last four fights, but those all came against current or former champions and she’s been dominating everyone else. In her first career Flyweight fight, Andrade took on Katlyn Chookagian. Andrade led in significant strikes 28-19 while landing two of three takedowns attempts in the first round, before finishing Chookagian with a body shot that sent her fleeing across the Octagon before collapsing with just seconds remaining in the round. Andrade’s last three wins have now all come by KO in the first two rounds, although two were somewhat flukey, with a bizarre body shot against Chookagian and a KO by slam against Rose Namajunas.
She relies on overpowering her opponents to win fights, and is a one-dimensional fighter in that sense. Her entire game is based around striking blitzes and big powerful slams, which is a big reason she moved down from 135 lb, where she had gone 4-3 in the UFC, to 115 lb in 2016. She had a tougher time exerting her will in the 135 lb division, with her only finish in her first seven UFC fights coming by Guillotine Choke, while all three losses during that period ended early (2013 R2 KO, 2015 R1 Sub & 2015 R2 Sub).
After dropping down two weight classes in 2016, she went 7-3 in the 115 lb division, with four finishes, including three KOs and one submission—all in the first two rounds. As a more imposing force at 115 lb, her only early loss during that stretch was a 2019 R1 KO against Zhang Weili. She also lost a 2017 five-round decision to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and then a three-round decision to Rose Namajunas in her last fight at 115 lb before she moved up to 125 lb.
Andrade is now 21-9 as a pro, with eight wins by KO, seven by submission and six decisions. Six of her nine career losses have also come early, with four KOs, two submissions and three decisions. Five of her last six fights have ended by KO in the first two rounds (3-2). At 6.15 SSL/min and 5.2 SSA/min she lands the 5th most significant strikes on the slate while absorbing the 4th most.
Prior to getting taken down seven times by Shevchenko, Andrade hadn’t been taken down in her previous five fights, although the only person who actually tried was Rose Namajunas, who went 0 for 1 and 0 for 2 in their two matches. While Andrade officially has a 66% takedown defense, that should be taken with a grain of salt. It’s largely based on a few terrible performances by opponents with horrendous career takedown accuracy numbers (21%, 10%, 42%, and 23%). While Andrade has been taken down 17 times on 50 total attempts in the UFC, four of her 18 opponents combined to go 1 for 29, while the rest went 16 for 21. Here are the takedowns attempted against Andrade throughout her career:
At 125 lb (2020):
Shevchenko (63% Career TD Accuracy) 7 for 7
Chookagian - No Takedowns Attempted
At 115 lb (2016-2020):
Namajunas 2 (53% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 1
Weili - No Takedowns Attempted
Namajunas (53% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 2
Kowalkiewicz - No Takedowns Attempted
Torres (15% Career TD Accuracy) 2 for 2
Gadelha (42% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 7
Jedrzejczyk - No Takedowns Attempted
Hill - No Takedowns Attempted
Calderwood - No Takedowns Attempted
Penne (23% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 6
At 135 lb (2013-2015):
Pennington 2 (28% Career TD Accuracy) 2 for 2
Moras (21% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 8
Reneau - No Takedowns Attempted
Pacheco (0% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 1
Pennington (28% Career TD Accuracy) 2 for 3
Sexton 2 (10% Career TD Accuracy) 1 for 8
Carmouche 2 (51% Career TD Accuracy) 3 for 3
So you can see that at 135 lb Pennington and Carmouche had no issue getting Andrade to the ground and Shevchenko took her down at will at 125 lb. Andrade does have a decent Guillotine Choke, which is how she finished six of her seven career submission wins, so that may also serve as a deterrent for opponents considering whether to attempt takedowns against her. Her only other submission win was a 2013 R2 Rear-Naked Choke.
Cynthia Calvillo
10th UFC Fight (6-2-1)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian, Calvillo has now gone 1-1-1 in her last three fights. Chookagian outlanded Calvillo 69-60 in strikes while missing on her only takedown attempt but defending three of Calvillo’s four attempts. Calvillo allowed Chookagian to control the distance throughout the fight and was never able to implement her gameplan.
That was just Calvillo’s second UFC fight up at 125 lb after she fought her first seven UFC matches at 115 lb. She moved up from 115 lb to 125 lb in 2020 following a draw against Marina Rodriguez where she missed weight by 4.5 lb. She did fight her first pro fight at 125 lb and her second at 120 lb Catchweight, but then dropped down to 115 lb one fight before she joined the UFC.
Prior to her recent three round decision loss, Calvillo won a five round decision against Jessica Eye. Calvillo landed a career high 113 significant strikes, which isn’t really surprising since that was her first 5-round right. That would equate to 68 significant strikes in a three round fight. She also tacked on four takedowns and nearly eight minutes of control time.
Calvillo’s last four and six of her last seven fights have gone the distance. She’s now 9-2-1 as a pro, with two wins by KO, three by submission and four decisions. While four of her five finishes came in her first five pro fights, three of those came against current or former UFC fighters in Montana De La Rosa, Amanda Bobby Brundage and Pearl Gonzalez. Both of Calvillo’s career losses ended in decisions against tough opponents in Carla Esparza and Katlyn Chookagian. Calvillo’s last three early wins have all come by Rear-Naked Choke, with two ending in R1 and one ending in R3.
In three round fights, Calvillo has never landed more than 78 significant strikes and has never absorbed more than 73. She’s only had to defend one takedown in her last five fights, which came against Katlyn Chookagian in her most recent match. The last time we saw anyone attempt more than one takedown on Calvillo was in 2017 when Carla Esparza went 2 for 9 on her attempts.
Fight Prediction:
Calvillo will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This is an essential fight for both ladies to win. If Andrade loses she’ll have lost four of her last five fights and if Calvillo loses she’ll have gone 1-2-1 in her last four. It looks like a good bounce back spot for Andrade, who’s been facing exclusively top shelf competition recently. Calvillo represents a major step down in skill level for her and if you want to point at common opponents, Andrade’s last win came in a R1 KO against Katlyn Chookagian, who just a month later went on to defeat Calvillo in a decision. Calvillo’s lone path to victory will be to outgrapple Andrade, as we just saw Shevchenko have her way with Andrade on the ground. With that said, we expect Andrade to simply overpower Calvillo and overwhelm her with strikes on the feet. While Calvillo has notably never been finished, this matchup will certainly test that as Andrade’s last three wins have all come by KO. There’s a slight chance Calvillo can land a submission, but the most likely outcome here is for Andrade to win by KO, with the next most likely result being an Andrade decision win.
There’s a decent chance this one goes the distance but we’re taking a few stabs on finishing props with “Andrade Wins by R1 KO” at +700, “Andrade Wins by R2 KO” at +950, “Calvillo Wins by Submission” at +750, “Fight Doesn’t Start R2” at +300 and “Fight Doesn’t Start R3” at +158.
DFS Implications:
Despite losing three of her last fours fights, Andrade is always extremely dangerous and now gets a step down in competition. Her last six wins have been good for DK/FD scores of 132/141 (R1 KO), 100/121 (R2 KO), 115/135 (R1 KO), 147/135 (R3 DEC), 142/150 (R3 DEC), and 99/111 (R3 DEC). So she’s proven she can break slates with both finishes and in decisions as she has the ability to put up both huge striking totals and takedown numbers. With so many other high-upside expensive fighters on the slate, this looks like a great buy-low opportunity on Andrade for DFS. While it should be noted that Calvillo has never been finished early in her career, Andrade can still score well even if this goes the distance, in addition to always having a good shot to finish fights early. We love Andrade for tournaments as a pivot off the higher owned alternative options at the top. The odds imply she has a 69% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish and a 15% chance it comes in R1.
This is a somewhat interesting pace up spot for Calvillo, but she’s shown herself to be a R1 or bust DFS play in the past with DraftKings scores of 115 and 104 in her two UFC R1 wins, but just 83 points in a R3 submission victory. She also scored just 65 points in both of her three-round decision wins. The only real reason for optimism in Calvillo is that Shevchenko was able to take Andrade down seven times on seven attempts in her last fight, and Calvillo is a decent grappler. So there’s a slight chance Calvillo can either rack up takedowns or land a submission, but it’s still far more likely that Andrade simply overpowers Calvillo. The odds imply she has a 31%% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #4
Curtis Blaydes
14th UFC Fight (9-3, NC)After getting planked by Derrick Lewis in the second round of his last fight, Blaydes will now face a similar test in Jairzinho Rozenstruik who actually offers a considerably better takedown defense of 80% compared to Lewis’ 55% defense. Blaydes notably went 0 for 3 on his takedown attempts against Lewis before getting involuntarily thrust into a sleep study as we all watched him snore for a few minutes after he shot into a violent Lewis uppercut. Blaydes was far ahead in strikes 28-7 before that closing shot, but Lewis seemed content waiting for his perfect opportunity. That marked the third loss of Blaydes’ career, with all three ending in knockouts (2 in R2 & 1 in R1). The first two both came at the hands of Heavyweight champ Francis Ngannou, so only the biggest and baddest men have been able to stop Blaydes.
Prior to that KO loss, Blaydes won four in a row, including two main events most recently. In his most recent win, Blaydes’ made it past the third round for the first time in his career and looked absolutely exhausted by the time the championship rounds rolled around. However, he was able to hang on to win a decision over Alexander Volkov, in a dominating wrestling performance where he set the Heavyweight record for takedowns landed at 14 on 25 attempts, easily surpassing the previous record of 11. So it’s no wonder why both of the fighters were gassed by the later rounds. Leading up to the five round decision win, Blaydes landed consecutive R2 KO wins against Junior dos Santos and Shamil Abdurakhimov.
Blaydes tends to wear on opponents, and has zero R1 finishes in his 10 UFC wins. Well technically nine official UFC wins, as one was later overturned to a “No Contest” when he tested positive for THC. Of those 10 wins (ignoring the fact that one was overturned to a NC later), he has six KO’s and four decision victories. Five of those KO’s came in R2 and one occurred in R3.
The first two losses of Blaydes’ career were both against Francis Ngannou, with the first coming by R2 “KO” in Blaydes’ 2016 UFC debut with a doctor’s stoppage in between the 2nd and 3rd rounds because Blaydes’ eye was swollen shut. The second loss came in a 2018 rematch against Ngannou, where he knocked out Blaydes 45 seconds into the first round. Ngannou stuffed Blaydes’ two takedown attempts in that fight before knocking him down and finishing him. That’s the obvious way you defeat Blaydes, but it’s easier said than done.
Blaydes only fought five times professionally before joining the UFC and won all five by KO. His only two career R1 KO’s came in his first two pro fights, both in 2014, against a lower level of competition in the Xtreme Fighting Organization. He’s now 14-3 as a pro with 10 wins by KO and four by decisions. As we mentioned all three of his losses ended in KOs.
Blaydes is a rare wrestling Heavyweight, which presents a mismatch for the majority of his opponents. With zero submission attempts, let alone wins, Blaydes is not a submission threat on the ground. His goal is to get opponents down and then smash them with punches and heavy elbows.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Fresh off a last second R1 KO win over Augusto Sakai, Rozenstruik bounced back from his second career loss following a 25 minute staring contest against Ciryl Gane that went the distance. In his recent R1 KO win, Rozenstruik led in significant strikes just 16-3 but turned up the aggression late in the first round as he dropped Sakai in the closing seconds of the round and got the stoppage with one second left on the clock. He was able to push forward a little more in that fight without the threat of being taken down as he methodically controlled the center of the Octagon and slowly inched forward.
In his previous fight, Rozenstruik averaged an anemic 1.68 significant strikes per minute as he was outlanded 102-42 Gane, who easily won a unanimous 50-45 decision. Rozenstruik refused to take many risks in the match, even when it was clear that he needed a finish late in the agonizingly painful to watch snoozer.
Prior to having his controller unplugged for 25 minutes, Rozenstruik’s previous seven fights all ended in knockouts, with him winning six of those. Only one of those seven fights made it past the second round and four ended in the first. Just before losing to Gane, Rozenstruik knocked out a washed up Junior dos Santos in the second round of an August 2020 match. Before that, he suffered his first career loss in a 20 second R1 KO at the hands of current Heavyweight champ Francis Ngannou in May 2020. Rozenstruik came into that fight with a perfect 10-0 record, but Ngannou quickly put an end to that, along with his consciousness, in a don’t blink KO victory.
Rozenstruik originally made his UFC debut in February 2019 with a perfect 6-0 record with five first round knockouts. In his debut, he took on Junior Albini, who was able to take Rozenstruik down twice on six attempts before Rozenstruik knocked him out less than a minute into the second round. Albini notably went 1-4 in the UFC before being released in 2019 following his fourth straight loss.
Next, Rozenstruik took on Allen Crowder, who technically went 1-2 in the UFC, but his one win came when Greg Hardy was disqualified for an illegal knee. Crowder notably hasn’t fought in two years since that loss. Rozenstruik knocked Crowder out in just nine seconds, before following that up with a 29 second KO of Andrei Arlovski, which was far more impressive. The trio of quick KOs to start off his UFC career was enough to get Rozenstruik a main event spot against Alistair Overeem in December 2019.
In that fight against Overeem, Rozenstruik was forced to go longer than six minutes for just the second time in his career and saw the championship rounds for the first time. Overeem was able to get Rozenstruik down in the first round and hold him there through the end of the round to take the early lead in the fight. Overeem immediately looked to re-engage the clinch in the second round as he pushed Rozenstruik up against the cage for the opening minutes of round two and the ref eventually broke them up. Rozenstruik was able to land a few shots late in the round but so was Overeem. Late in round three Overeem was able to get Rozenstruik down again, continuing his dominance in the control time department. Rozenstruik was able to successfully defend eight of Overeem’s 10 takedown attempts, but Overeem made the two he landed count. Rozenstruik was able to land some decent combinations in round four, but Overeem was able to absorb them all with his patented high guard defense. After Overeem appeared to win the first three rounds, Rozenstruik began to pick it up late as Overeem looked fatigued. However, still likely behind 48-47 if the fight went the distance, Rozenstruik landed a lip splitting last second KO with four seconds remaining in the final round to steal the fight. Rozenstruik did come out ahead 89-74 in significant strikes in the fight, but Overeem’s takedowns and control time appeared to win him the first three rounds.
Rozenstruik currently sits on a 12-2 pro record, with 11 wins by KO and just one decision. The only time he’s ever been finished was against Francis Ngannou, while his lone decision loss came against Gane.
Fight Prediction:
Blaydes will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
There are only three possible ways this fight ends—either Rozenstruik knocks Blaydes out on the feet, Blaydes wins a grappling-heavy decision or he knocks Rozenstruik out with ground and pound. If we had to rank those in terms of the likelihood they happen it would be Blaydes Decision as the most likely, then Rozenstruik KO followed by Blaydes KO, but all three are in play. Rozenstruik has a legit 80% takedown defense and lethal one-punch power that will make Blaydes’ life difficult. However, we’ve only seen three men attempt to take Rozenstruik down. Most recently, Cyril Gane (20% takedown accuracy) went 2 for 14. Prior to that, Alistair Overeem (55% takedown accuracy) went 2 for 10. And in Rozenstruik’s first UFC fight, Junior Albini (37% takedown accuracy) went 2 for 6. Rozenstruik still knocked out Overeem and Albini in the 5th and 2nd rounds respectively, while Gane defeated him in a decision. Blaydes owns a 54% takedown accuracy for the record. We could see Blaydes come in a little more cautiously following his recent vacation from consciousness or we could see him try to shoot immediately like ripping a bandaid off to avoid the tense period of deciding when to time a shot. Following his first two career KO losses he took 7 and 33 seconds respectively to shoot for his first takedown in his next fight. So at least in the past he hasn’t been gun shy about immediately shooting following a knockout, but we’ll see if the way Lewis knocked him out changes anything. We expect Rozenstruik’s takedown defense to hold up to some extent but not 100% unless this fight ends quickly. That will give Blaydes less time to wear him down with ground and pound and increases the chances of either a Rozenstruik KO or a Blaydes decision victory. We’ll say Blaydes gets a decision win, but it’s entirely possible Rozenstruik knocks him out.
If you want to grind out a 6-7% profit, just bet “Fight Ends in KO” at -170 and “Blaydes Wins by Decision” at +220 at a 2:1 ratio. Our favorite longer shot is “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +420. You can also consider “Rozenstruik Wins by KO” at +420.
DFS Implications:
In his 13 UFC fights Blaydes has 59 takedowns. That’s even more impressive when you look at the fact that in four of those fights he didn’t land a single one. He landed a whopping 14 takedowns in his five round decision win over Alexander Volkov, where he dominated Volkov on the ground for the entire fight and ended up scoring 173 DraftKings points and 148 points on FanDuel. This next matchup will be a far tougher task to rack up huge takedown numbers, as Rozenstruik has a solid 80% takedown defense and has only been taken down six times on 30 attempts since joining the UFC. He also offers the same dangerous one-punch power that has been Blaydes’ Kryptonite in the past. This is probably the closest thing to a rematch with Lewis that the UFC could have given Blaydes without actually giving him the rematch. So seeing it play out in a similar fashion wouldn’t be at all surprising, with a low-volume feeling out process and a few early missed takedowns. The question will be whether or not Blaydes can eventually get it to the ground or if Rozenstruik will be able to clip him coming in. It’s not a comfortable matchup for either fighter, so a disappointing result with most of the fight spent posturing would not be surprising in the slightest. When Blaydes has been able to rack up takedowns, he’s put up huge DraftKings scores of 173, 120, 105, 99, 134 and 121. However, in fights he’s failed to land a takedown he’s scored just 12, 82, 0 and 73 DK points. His grappling-heavy style generally scores better on DraftKings than FanDuel when fights go the distance as he scored 105 DraftKings points but just 75 points on FanDuel in his last three round decision win. Considering this looks like a tougher matchup to put up huge takedown numbers, he may need a finish to be useful on either site. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 43% chance to get a finish and a 17% chance it comes in R1.
Rozenstruik’s low-volume, one-dimensional striking leaves him dependent on a R1 or late R2 knockout to score well in DFS. In his fight against Overeem that lasted just under 25 minutes, Rozenstruik came out ahead in significant strikes just 89-74, which combined with the 5th round knockout was good for just 90 points on DraftKings. He was able to do a little better on FanDuel, where he scored 114 points propped up by eight takedowns defended, and this looks like another matchup where he should score much better on FanDuel through takedowns defended compared to DraftKings. With that said, with his cheap price tag a finish at any point will likely allow Rozenstruik to return value and he has the potential on FanDuel to put up a massive score with a well timed finish and a handful of takedowns defended. Just keep in mind there’s also a real chance that this fight busts as a low-volume stalemate and ends in a disappointing decision. The odds imply Rozenstruik has a 28% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #3
Robbie Lawler
23rd UFC Fight (13-9)This is a ridiculous rematch of a 2004 fight that Diaz won via R2 KO.
Coming off a low-volume, grappling-heavy decision loss to Neil Magny, Lawler was outlanded 62-26 in significant strikes and 116-41 in total strikes. He failed on his only takedown attempt, while Magny went 4 for 7 with over eight minutes of control time.
That marked Lawler’s fourth straight loss and he now only has one win in his last six fights, which came in a close 2017 decision over Donald Cerrone. Four of Lawler’s last five fights have ended in decisions, with the one exception being a R1 Bulldog Choke Submission loss against Ben Askren. Two of those recent four decisions occurred in five round fights and six of his eight UFC five-round fights have gone the distance, with the only two exceptions being a 2016 R1 KO loss to Tyron Woodley and a 2015 R5 KO win against Rory MacDonald. So seven of those eight fights notably made it to the 5th round. In the six decisions, Lawler has wins over Carlos Condit in 2016, Johny Hendricks in 2014 and Matt Brown in 2014. The three losses came against Colby Covington in 2019, Rafael dos Anjos in 2017 and Johny Hendricks in their first matchup in 2014.
Lawler turned pro in 2001 and originally joined the UFC in 2002, where he went 4-3 in 7 fights in his first stint. However, after losing 3 of his last 4 over that period he left the UFC in 2005, before rejoining it in 2013. He’s gone 9-6 in his second run with the organization, winning 8 of his first 9 fights back, but going just 1-5 in his last six.
After losing a five round decision to RDA in 2017, Lawler didn't fight in 2018 before coming back in early 2019 to take on Ben Askren. Lawler came out strong but Askren fought back and caught him in a Bulldog choke. Lawler’s arm flopped to the mat and he appeared to go out but as soon as the fight was stopped he popped up in protest so it may have been an unlucky early stoppage. Lawler was then dominated by Covington for five rounds before losing a three round decision to Magny in August 2020.
Lawler is 28-15 as a pro with 20 KOs, one submission and seven decision wins. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted five times and lost seven decisions. Three of his last four wins have gone the distance, as have three of his last four losses.
Nick Diaz
15th UFC Fight (7-6, NC)Stepping back inside the Octagon for the first time in nearly seven years, Diaz hasn’t competed since January 2015. He originally turned pro in 2001 and then joined the UFC in 2003. However, from 2007 to 2011 he fought outside of the UFC for organizations such as Pride and Strikeforce, where he won the Strikeforce Welterweight Belt and then successfully defended it three times before rejoining the UFC in 2011.
Diaz won a three round decision over B.J. Penn in his October 2011 return. Penn had gone just 1-2-1 in his previous four fights before facing Diaz and notably lost six straight before retiring after his loss to Diaz. So it’s hard to get too excited about the win. Nevertheless, in a lopsided striking battle Diaz finished ahead in significant strikes 178-88 and 257-107 in total strikes. Penn went 1 for 4 on his takedown attempts, while Diaz never attempted any but did lead in control time 3:23-1:27.
Next, Diaz took on Carlos Condit in February 2012 for the Interim Welterweight Belt. Condit outlanded Diaz 151-105 in significant strikes and 159-117 in total strikes on his way to winning a unanimous five round decision. Diaz went 1 for 3 on his takedowns with 1:44 of control time, while Condit never attempted a takedown. That was notably the only takedown Diaz has landed in his last six fights, although he’s only attempted six total takedowns in those six fights. While Condit came into that fight on a four fight winning streak, he lost eight of his next 10 matches. Diaz was suspended for a year following that fight after he tested positive for THC.
After Georges St. Pierre returned from injury and successfully defended the Welterweight Belt against newfound interim champ Carlos Condit in November 2012, Nick Diaz took his shot at the title in March 2013. In that fight, GSP outlanded Diaz 105-41 in significant strikes and 210-80 in total strikes, while racking up 9 takedowns 16 attempts with nearly 14 minutes of control time on his way to a lopsided 50-45 unanimous decision win.
Following back-to-back losses, Diaz took nearly two years off before deciding to try a move up to 185 lb for the first time in his career when he took on Anderson Silva in January 2015. That was Silva’s first fight back after suffering his infamous leg break against Chris Weidman 13 months earlier. Weidman had also knocked out Silva in the first before that, so Silva entered on a two fight losing streak. Silva easily won a unanimous decision (46-49, 45-50, 45-50) as he outlanded Diaz 108-77 in significant strikes and 108-80 in total strikes, while Diaz missed on the only takedown attempted in the match. However, the results of that fight were later overturned to a No Contest when Anderson Silva tested positive for several banned substances and Diaz once again tested positive for THC. Since then, Silva went 1-5 in his last six UFC fights before being released following his third straight loss.
The Nevada State Athletic Commission then surprisingly suspended Diaz for 5 years for the second failed drug test along with what they described as “disregard.” However, Diaz was able to appeal and have that reduced to 18 months. Ironically, he took over 5 years off anyways after winning the appeal. It’s now been 9 years and 11 months since Diaz last won a fight and nearly seven years since Diaz has competed or even had a fight booked. His last four fights all ended in decisions, with the last three going five full rounds.
Diaz started his career at 155 lb before quickly moving up to 170 lb. His last fight was at 185 lb, which was the only time he’s ever competed up at Middleweight, and this next one had originally been scheduled to take place at 170 lb, but was then moved to 185 lb mid fight week.
Diaz is now 26-9 as a pro, with 13 wins by KO, 8 by submission and 5 decision victories. Seven of his nine losses have ended with the judges, while he also has a pair of TKO losses on his record. However, one of those was a 2007 R1 TKO by Doctor Stoppage and the other was a 2002 49 second R1 KO in what is officially listed as Diaz’s fifth pro fight, but three of those came in one night in a single-night tournament. Diaz only had two pro fights under his belt before that night and finished his first two opponents in the tournament.
Fight Prediction:
Diaz will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is actually one year younger than Lawler.
A combined 77 years old (so 150 in normal human years), we get the dubious privilege of seeing a rematch 17 years in the making with the 39-year-old Lawler looking to even the score at one a piece against the 38-year-old Diaz, who knocked Lawler out in the second round of their first matchup. Lawler originally turned pro in April 2001, while DIaz followed shortly after in August 2001, so they’re both celebrating their 20 year anniversary this year of professional fighting. Diaz has voiced his disappointment with how some of his recent opponents have fought him as he wants to face guys that will push forward and take part in a flat-footed brawl. So after waiting nearly seven years to return to the Octagon he’s had plenty of time to carefully choose his opponent. This actually looks like a matchup where both guys will get what they want. Diaz is tired of guys evading action and Lawler has to be sick of getting taken down. The only way we see this one going to the ground is with a desperation takedown attempt, which definitely could happen at some point, but shouldn’t be a focal point for either guy. However, if it does go to the ground Diaz will have a massive advantage as he’s a third degree Gracie BJJ black belt, while Lawler is a one dimensional striker. There’s no way to know how Diaz will look back inside the Octagon after so long away, but we know Lawler has looked bad. Everything leading up to the fight has made Diaz look terrible and has caused the line to move massively in Lawler’s favor. This is a super high variance spot, but we’re still inclined to take the mystery door over Lawler. We don’t feel good at all about it, but give us Diaz by decision.
We considered Diaz’s +360 ITD, +600 KO, +210 Decision and +2300 R1 KO lines here, but in the end settled on just his +125 moneyline as this fight could end in a variety of ways and there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding it.
DFS Implications:
In a fight between Lawler, who’s lost four straight and hasn’t tasted victory in over four years, and Diaz, who’s coming off nearly a seven year layoff, has dropped three straight and hasn’t won a fight in nearly 10 years, the best thing we can say about either guy is, well look who they’re facing.
The winners in Lawler’s six UFC five round decisions have put up DK/FD totals of 172/187 (L), 132/135 (L), 78/87 (W), 88/126 (W), 81/98 (W), and 116/127 (L). So his opponents have ridiculously averaged 140 DraftKings points and 150 points on FanDuel in those three five-round decision wins. They notably all landed at least 158 significant strikes (6.32 SSL/min) and 186 total strikes. In Lawler’s three five-round decision wins, he averaged just 82 DraftKings points and 104 points on FanDuel. His FanDuel averages were helped by a combined 18 takedowns defended, but otherwise he struggles to score well as he’s only landed one takedown in his last nine fights and only averages 3.5 SSL/min over the course of his career. Lawler has been outlanded in seven of his last eight fights with the one exception coming against Ben Askren. Lawler really struggles to score well in DFS, and even in a 5th round KO in 2015 he still scored just 80 DraftKings points and 91 points on FanDuel. His other four most recent wins scored just 63, 78, 88 and 81 DraftKings points (all in decisions). That likely leaves Lawler dependent on an early KO in the first couple of rounds to return value. The biggest two things Lawler has going for him in DFS is that he gets an opponent coming off nearly a seven year layoff and has seen a huge line move in his favor. If Diaz comes out and looks terrible, Lawler could still knock him out early. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
While it’s been almost exactly 10 years since Diaz last won a fight, he consistently scored well when he did win with DK/FD totals of 123/136, 123/141, 115/142, 94/104, 102/116, 143/168, and 131/172 from 2009 to 2011. That’s good for an average of 119 DraftKings points and 140 points on FanDuel. Now whether or not that will carry over a full decade later is unlikely, and we’d be shocked if we didn’t see some sort of decline in him now that he’s 38 years old. The 50 million dollar question is to what extent? While it’s somewhat hard to see Diaz not returning value with a win of any kind, especially if you focus on his past scoring, Diaz was involved in a lower volume decision against Anderson Silva in his last outing, and we could easily see this fight play out entirely on the feet as that one did. So there is a slight chance that Diaz could win a decision and still fail to return a useful score. That’s certainly not the most likely outcome, but it is possible. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #2
Valentina Shevchenko
13th UFC Fight (10-2)Coming off a dominating second round TKO win over Jessica Andrade, Shevchenko simply overpowered Andrade for the entire fight as she took her down 7 times on 7 attempts and outlanded her 32-10 in significant strikes and 90-47 in total strikes with over five minutes of control time before getting her in a Crucifix position midway through the second round and finishing her with elbows. Shevchenko looked better than ever and once again proved she’s on another level from the rest of the division.
It was encouraging to see Shevchenko regain her past form as early in her previous fight against Jennifer Maia Shevchenko looked a little tentative on the feet despite being a ridiculous -1800 favorite. That can likely be attributed to the fact that she was just nine months removed from MCL surgery, and fighting for the first time since the injury. She looked to get a little more comfortable as the fight progressed, and said as much in her post fight interview.
Fighting in her 7th straight title fight and 8th of her career, Shevchenko is an elite striker who has only been beaten by Amanda Nunes in the UFC—who did so twice, both times by decision. Shevchenko fought at 135 until she dropped down to the 125 lb division following her second loss to Nunes in their 2017 rematch.
Following the switch, Shevchenko landed a massive 95 significant strikes in just under two rounds of action before submitting Priscila “Zombie Girl” Cachoeira at the end of the second round, in one of her few fights scheduled to go just three rounds. Cachoeira is known for her high volume brawls, so it’s not surprising that Shevchenko landed a career high number of significant strikes there, but the fact that she was able to do it in under 10 minutes of action is impressive.
Shevchenko then fought for the vacant Flyweight belt against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a lower-volume match that she won easily. She made her first title defense against Jessica Eye and finished the fight with a R2 KO, where we only saw 10 total significant strikes landed between the two women as Shevchenko amassed nearly a full round of control time before the stoppage just 26 seconds into round two.
Just two months after her first title defense, she put the belt on the line again. This time it was in a rematch against Liz Carmouche, who is the only person not named Amanda Nunes to ever defeat Shevchenko. Carmouche did so with an upkick in a pre-UFC 2010 fight that opened Shevchenko up and forced a doctor stoppage. Shevchenko defeated Carmouche in a low-volume five-round decision in their rematch. She followed that up with an early R3 KO of Katlyn Chookagian in her third most recent fight, before undergoing MCL surgery and then defeating Maia in a decision leading up to her R2 TKO win over Andrade.
Shevchenko’s last 14 fights have all made it out of the first round and the only thing she’s been unable to do since joining the UFC is notch a first round finish. Seven of her UFC fights have ended in decisions (58%), with her first two in the organization going three rounds and the last five going five full rounds. Three of her UFC fights have ended in KO/TKOs (25%), as she’s alternated decision and TKO wins over her last six fights, with two of those finishes coming in the second round and one ending in the third. Her remaining two UFC fights (17%) ended in submission victories, both ending in R2, in 2017 and 2018. Shevchenko has actually perfectly alternated between finishes and decisions for 10 straight fights now, with four of the finishes coming in R2 and one ending in R3.
Looking at her entire pro career, of her 21 wins, 14 have come early, with seven KOs and seven submissions. All of her career submission wins (7) have notably come in either R1 (3) or R2 (4). All but one of her KO wins have also come in the first two rounds, with four ending in R2, two in R1 and just one in R3.
Lauren Murphy
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Murphy has now won five in a row after losing four of her first six UFC fights. She’s coming off a close split-decision win over Joanne Calderwood, as she continues to live up to her nickname “Lucky.” Three of her last four decision wins have been split, and despite getting outlanded in significant strikes in all of them (123-80, 104-80 and 71-59) Murphy convinced two of the three judges that she had done enough in each. Junichiro Kamijo was notably involved in getting Murphy the nod in two of those three, so keep an eye out for her whenever Murphy fights.
In her most recent fight, Murphy clearly won the second round against Calderwood, as Murphy controlled her on the ground for almost the entire round. The third round was unmistakably won by Calderwood as she outlanded Murphy 59-35 in significant strikes and stuffed all three of her takedown attempts. All three judges agreed on both of those rounds. Where opinions differed came in the first round, where Calderwood outlanded Murphy 55-29 in significant strikes and 64-40 in total strikes, while stuffing Murphy’s only takedown attempt.
In her second most recent fight, Murphy had originally been scheduled to face Cynthia Calvillo, however, Murphy instead ended up fighting late replacement Liliya Shakirova, who was making her UFC debut after Calvillo withdrew. Shakirova actually slightly led in significant strikes, while Murphy finished ahead 32-27 in total strikes. However, Shakirova missed all three of her takedown attempts, while Murphy landed her one attempt and then finished the fight with her first career submission victory.
Prior to that win Murphy won a low-volume decision over an aging Roxanne Modafferi following a R3 KO win against a suspect Mara Romero Borella and a split-decision win over Andrea Lee. Murphy’s February 2020 split-decision win over Andrea Lee was another questionable result, as Lee outlanded Murphy in all three rounds and finished ahead 104-80 in significant strikes. Murphy was able to land a pair of takedowns, but she wasn’t able to control Lee for long on either.
Murphy’s only other two UFC wins were a 2017 decision win over a 38-year-old Barb Honchak, who went 0-2 in the UFC before retiring, and a R3 KO against Kelly Faszholz, who had just three pro fights at the time and also finished her UFC career 0-2. We’ve yet to see a convincing win from Murphy against top level talent, and she really tripped and fell into this title shot on a series of split-decisions.
Now 15-4 as a pro, Murphy has eight wins by KO, one by submission and six decision victories. She’s notably never been finished, as all four of her losses have ended in decisions. Five of her eight KO wins came in her first five pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 1-1, 0-1, 2-0, 1-2, and 2-2. Four of those five women never fought again and the first four of those fights notably took place on the Alaskan scene.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5” but Murphy will have a 1” reach advantage. Shevchenko is notably 5 years younger than the 38-year-old Murphy.
While Murphy has been squeaking out close split-decision wins to get her photo op with the champ, Shevchenko has been dominating the top of the division. The only way we see Murphy winning this fight is with a freak injury to Shevchenko, which is very unlikely. So the real question is whether or not Shevchenko can land another second round finish or if her 10 fight streak of alternating decisions and finishes continues. Murphy has never been finished as a pro, but has rarely faced any opponents with much finishing upside. So we shouldn’t put too much stock into that stat, but it does sync up with Shevchenko’s alternating pattern of finishes and decisions. So there’s the somewhat weak argument that this fight goes the distance, but we still think a second or third round win for Shevchenko is the more likely outcome. She’s just too good and can win this fight wherever it goes.
Our favorite bets here are “Shevchenko R2 Win” at +500 and “Shevchenko Wins by Decision” at +225, but you can also consider her R3 line at +750.
DFS Implications:
You don’t need us to tell you that Shevchenko is a great play with a huge ceiling—that’s obvious as she’s a -1600 favorite who has scored a combined 273 DraftKings points in her last two fights. What’s tougher to gauge is her chances of failing to return value.
Shevchenko has landed 15 takedowns in her last three fights, with seven of those coming in less than two rounds of action in her most recent match. Since dropping down to 125 lb, Shevchenko has put up DK/FD scores of 139/147 (R2 KO), 134/90 (R5 DEC), 86/92 (R3 KO), 74/63 (R5 DEC), 107/109 (R2 KO), 111/103 (R5 DEC) and 160/154 (R2 SUB). So we’ve seen a pretty wide range of outcomes as she’s averaged 116 DraftKings points and 108 points on FanDuel but has shown a DK range of 74-160 and a FD range of 63-154.
If we separate the finishes from the decisions, she has averaged 123/126 DK/FD points in finishes with her only underwhelming score coming in an unfortunately timed early R3 KO in February 202 where she put up DK/FD scores of just 86/92. In her last three decision wins she has averaged 106 DraftKings points, but just 85 points on FanDuel. Her super low-volume decision win over Liz Carmouche certainly drives down those averages as she only scored 74/63 DK/FD points in that match. She scored well on DraftKings in her other two recent decisions with totals of 134 and 111, but returned just 90 and 103 FanDuel points in those same two victories. So clearly she’s a better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel in fights that go the distance and is less likely to return value on FanDuel in a decision. She’s also shown she can score poorly with a finish beyond the second round, which gives us another way this fight fails to produce a big scorer. That’s not to say she can’t score well with a later finish or in a decision, as she was on pace to land 21 takedowns in her last fight, but if Murphy (70% takedown defense) can mostly keep this fight standing then we could be looking at a lower scoring Shevchenko decision. Keep in mind Shevchenko generally racks up a ton of ground strikes but has never landed more than 95 significant strikes in a fight and has only averaged 3.02 SSL/min in her career. Murphy has never been finished, and Shevchenko has alternated decisions and finishes for 10 straight fights and is coming off a finish.
We’ve seen Shevchenko’s ownership balloon up from 36% in her November 2020 matchup against Maia (12 fight card that included TWO five round fights) to 45% most recently (13 fight card with THREE five round fights). After absolutely smashing in those last two spots, she’s now projected to be the highest owned fighter on this slate, and for good reason as she probably offers the highest floor/ceiling combination. That makes her an exceptional low-risk play, but you can gain leverage on roughly half the field by fading this fight and hoping she fails to score well. While that may seem nearly impossible after watching her recent performance, she’s proven she doesn’t always score well. Either way, you’ll still want a healthy amount of exposure, but that’s the argument for going under the field in tournaments. The odds imply she has a 90% chance to win, a 63% chance to get a finish and a 20% chance it comes in R1 and a 14% chance it comes in R2.
Lauren Murphy is not someone we’re ever looking to play in DFS. Thirteen of her last 14 fights have made it to the third round, with 10 of those going the distance. The one exception was a R2 submission win against an opponent making her short notice UFC debut. Even in that R2 finish, Murphy still scored just 88 DraftKings points, and she generally lacks the volume to really score well without a first round finish. She does average 1.2 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but has notably never landed more than two in a fight. She’s only scored above 88 DraftKings points once, with scores of 84, 88, 74, 87, 71, 73 and 118 in her seven UFC wins. That 118 point performance came in a complete outlier performance against a non-UFC level talent, who was making her debut in just her fourth pro fight, and finished her UFC career with an 0-2 record. Murphy’s next finish scored just 71 DraftKings points. If you’re looking for a leverage play in this fight we much prefer fading the fight altogether in the hopes of a lower scoring Shevchenko win than playing Murphy. The odds imply Murphy has a slate-low 10% chance to win, a 5% chance to get a finish and a 2% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #1
Alexander Volkanovski
10th UFC Fight (9-0)This fight was originally scheduled for March, but Volkanovski was forced to withdraw due to a bad case of COVID. The two fighters then went on to coach TUF before rescheduling their title fight for Saturday.
Riding in on a 19 fight winning streak, Volkanovski is coming off a pair of decision wins over Max Holloway—although it’s easy to make the case that he lost the second of those. Volkanovski was notably able to tear up the legs of Holloway in their first matchup as he appeared to execute a perfect gameplan. Volkanovski led their first fight 157-134 in significant strikes but went 0 for 4 on his takedowns. In their second fight Volkanovski led 137-102 in significant strikes, while going 3 for 9 on takedowns. Holloway didn’t attempt a takedown in either fight.
Prior to the pair of championship fights, Volkanovski won his first seven UFC matches with four decisions and three second round KOs. Volkanovski never landed more than 100 significant strikes in any of those earlier fights and never absorbed more than 82. He has an impressive career striking differential, as he’s averaged 6.02 SSL/min, while absorbing just 3.31/min in his nine UFC fights. He’s also averaged 2.1 takedowns per 15 minutes, but has just a 34% takedown accuracy to go along with a more reliable 72% takedown defense.
Volkanovski is currently 22-1 as a pro, with 11 wins by KO, three by submission and eight decisions. His only career loss came in a 2013 R3 KO in his fourth pro fight. His last three and six of his nine UFC fights have ended in decisions. All three of his UFC knockouts have come in R2. Volkanovski is also notably a BJJ brown belt and started his MMA training in Greco-Roman Wrestling before switching to rugby for a while, before fully committing to MMA.
Brian Ortega
10th UFC Fight (7-1, NC)While Volkanovski is coming off a pair of wins over Holloway, Ortega lost to Holloway in his second most recent fight via R4 TKO due to a Doctor Stoppage. That fight took place all the way back in December 2018 and Ortega has only fought once since. Holloway outlanded Ortega 290-110 in significant strikes and landed his only takedown attempt while stuffing 9 of Ortega’s 11 attempts. That was notably Ortega’s first career loss.
Following that beating, Ortega switched camps but didn’t fight again for 22 months after suffering a partially torn ACL during training in November of 2019. He had to pull out of his original matchup against The Korean Zombie in December of 2019 because of the injury. He was, however, able to rehab the knee and avoid surgery, but it forced him into an extended layoff from fighting.
Ortega returned in October 2020 to face The Korean Zombie to decide who would get the next title shot. Ortega’s striking looked improved and he set a career high in significant strikes landed as he won the significant striking battle 127-62 while also landing 3 of 10 takedown attempts on his way to winning a decision. That was Ortega’s first trip to the judges since joining the UFC, as his previous eight fights all ended early. Prior to the Holloway fight, Ortega knocked out Frankie Edgar in R1, but his previous five wins all came in the later rounds, with four R3 finishes and one in R2.
Ortega is now 15-1 as a pro plus a No Contest. Ten of his 15 wins have come early, with three KOs and seven submissions to go along with five decision wins. His 2014 UFC debut also ended in a R1 submission win, but it was later overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for steroids.
Fight Prediction:
Ortega will have a 2” height advantage, but Volkanovski will have a 2” reach advantage.
Ortega is a solid fighter, but he doesn’t appear to have the championship mindset. While Volkanovski has a massive striking differential in his favor (6.02 SSL/min vs 3.31 SSA/min), Ortega has just the opposite as he’s averaged 4.29 SSL/min and 6.28 SSA/min. He also owns just a 21% career takedown accuracy, so despite his submission skills, he struggles to actually ground opponents. Volkanovski also notably has a 72% takedown defense that won’t help Ortega any. We like Volkanovski to win the striking battle and either point his way to a decision or wear Ortega down and finish him late. More likely than not this fight goes the distance though.
Our favorite three bets here are “Volkanovski Wins by Decision” at +135, “Volkanovski Wins by KO” at +340 and “Volkanovski Wins in R4, R5 or by Decision” at +100.
DFS Implications:
Volkanovski has been a consistent DFS producer, but rarely puts up massive scores with DK/FD totals of 103/120, 94/114, 83/80, 102/122, 107/146, 130/140, 99/91, 106/123 and 119/126 in his nine UFC fights. He has fared better on FanDuel where his solid takedown defense has helped his scores and the scoring system is better suited to his skill set. With that said, at his affordable DraftKings price tag it’s a little hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups with a victory, barring a weird outcome like an early R3 finish with no takedowns or knockdowns, which of course is always possible. He should land enough volume to score well in a decision and we expect him to defend multiple takedowns to prop up his FanDuel score. Overall, Volkanovski looks like a great play on both sites and is our preferred fighter in the main event. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Prior to setting a career high in significant strikes landed in his most recent fight, Ortega had generally struggled to score well on DraftKings with scores of 118, 110, 81, 71, 80, 60, and 81 in his seven UFC wins. The crazy part about that is that the last five of those scores all came in finishes. However, four of those finishes came in R3 and the other was in R2, so the round bonuses were minimal. He’s fared better on FanDuel, with scores of 138, 130, 99, 94, 117, 80 and 107, so you probably want to have a piece of this fight in every FanDuel lineup you make, but there are ways for it to fail on DraftKings. Just keep in mind that it’s still far more likely than not that the winner ends up in the winning lineup on both sites. The odds imply Ortega has a 39% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish and a 8% chance it comes in R1.
Overall, the most likely outcome for this fight is that Volkanovski wins a high volume decision and defends a decent number of takedowns. So it makes sense to stack the fight in low-risk contests on DraftKings and play a piece of it in most to all of your high-risk lineups on both sites.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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TOP PRIZE PICKS PLAYS FOR UFC THIS WEEK:
- Semelsberger Under 7.5 Min
- Maximov Under 12.5 Min
- Medic Under 8.5 Min
- Daukaus Under 9.5 Min
- Semelsberger Over 108.5 Fantasy Pts
- Daukaus Over 106.5 Fantasy Pts
- Volkanovski Over 105.5 Fantasy Pts
