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Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Impa Kasanganay
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)After being on the wrong side of the 2020 knockout of the year in his last fight, Kasanganay is looking for a new identity as he has fled the Middleweight division dropping down to 170 lb for the first time in his career and also switched camps to Sanford MMA, moving from North Carolina to Florida. He’s also grown a beard, changed his name to Charles Smith and no longer shows up in the phonebook. Okay, maybe not that last part. It’s unclear what his motivation for the weight class switch was—outside of Buckley night tremors—but for a guy that once fought at 205 lb (as an amateur) and looked fit at 185 lb, you would think this will be a tough weight cut for him unless he plans on cutting an arm off. It’s also a strange decision due to the fact that he’s always been more strong than fast, and now he’ll be facing even quicker opponents. Anyways…
Prior to his viral knockout loss, Kasanganay was 8-0 as pro with six of those wins going the distance. The other two were both by submission (against 0-0 and 1-1 opponents), although one was due to an opponent’s shoulder injury followed by a verbal tap. In his August UFC debut, Kasanganay defeated Maki Pitolo in a hard fought decision. He landed 85 significant strikes but was 0 for 1 on takedowns in that match.
Kasanganay has now only attempted a single failed takedown so far in his two UFC fights, but had gone 5 for 5 in his two fights prior on DWCS. After suffering a brain scrambling KO on the feet, it would be surprising if Kasanganay didn’t look to get back to his wrestling more.
Kasanganay made back to back appearances on DWCS in 2019 and 2020 and won both by decision. In his first appearance, Kasanganay landed 72 significant strikes and went 2 for 2 on takedowns. In his second trip on DWCS, he landed 94 significant strikes and went 3 for 3 on takedowns in that fight.
Kasanganay only started his MMA training in 2017 and just went pro in 2019, so he’s still a very raw fighter that’s trying to learn on the job. That also theoretically means he has more room to improve between fights.
Sasha Palatnikov
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a huge upset in his November 2020 UFC debut, Palatnikov narrowly survived the initial blitz of Louis Cosce, who came into the fight 7-0 with seven first round finishes, including six in 79 seconds or less. Cosce gassed himself out trying to finish the fight in his normal timeframe and looked exhausted by the end of the first round. Palatnikov was able to capitalize on his compromised opponent and eventually landed a third round KO by attrition against the exhausted Cosce. Palatnikov did show the ability to throw lots of volume as he outlanded Cosce 125-99 in significant strikes. He also landed his only takedown attempt and defended 8 of Cosce’s 9 attempts—just keep in mind most of those were exhausted desperation shots.
Just a month prior to making his UFC debut, Palatnikov won a fight with a R1 KO after having knee surgery earlier in the year to repair a torn meniscus. His last three fights have now all ended in KOs with him winning two of those, but getting knocked out in the first round by Mounir Lazzez in the other. In Palatnikov’s seven pro fights prior to joining the UFC he went 5-2, with just two of his five victories coming early. Those two KOs came against 1-0 Seok Hyun Ko and 3-4 Paulo Henrique. His other three wins all ended in decisions. Both of his losses also came by KO, one in the second round of a 2017 match and the other in the first round in 2019.
Palatnikov has fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb, citing his opponents asking for catchweight fights as the reason he moved up at times. This fight will be at 170 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Palatnikov will have a 2” height advantage, but Kasanganay will have a 3” reach advantage.
After suffering his first career loss in devastating fashion, it would make sense for Kasanganay to look to mix in more wrestling in this next fight. Palatnikov has been knocked out in each of his career losses, and was nearly finished again in the first round of his last match. We like Kasanganay to bounce back with a win in this spot, it’s just a matter of whether or not he gets a finish, and most likely he doesn’t. Kasanganay is essentially Pedro Cerrano from Major League II and Kasanganay landing a finish is equivalent to Cerrano trying to hit a fastball. Kasanganay is such a nice guy it doesn’t even look like he wants to finish opponents. Maybe the switch in camps will help to change that, but who knows.
There’s essentially no value in the Kasanganay’s lines unless you think he lands a submission, which we don’t. You can consider his KO line at +380 or decision line at -110, but this is a fight we’re looking to pass on.
DFS Implications:
After getting knocked out to a silent soundtrack (we’re going with PacMan), Kasanganay looks to be in a solid buy-low spot for DFS. He’s failed to come even remotely close to scoring well in his first two UFC fights, and checks in as the second most expensive fighter on the slate, which should keep his ownership low. However, he has a 72% implied chance to win the fight and the odds suggest he has a 23% chance for a finish and a 10% chance to get it done in R1. Despite Palatnikov’s anecdotal performance in his UFC debut, there’s no reason to believe that he’s legitimately a good fighter, and he actually looks like a great opponent to target. The stars have aligned for Kasanganay in this spot for DFS, the only question is whether or not he can capitalize. The most likely outcome is still probably a disappointing decision win for him, but you can easily leverage the field without mortgaging your bankroll.
Palatnikov’s stock is at an all time high after he landed a knockout as a +450 underdog in his recent debut. Keep in mind he was nearly finished in the first round and was then going up against an opponent who had nothing left in the tank. While Cosce had never been out of the first round, six of Kasanganay’s eight pro wins have ended in decisions, so don’t expect history to repeat itself here in terms of Palatnikov getting a teed up finish. Palatnikov looks reliant on striking volume and finishes to score well, as he doesn’t appear to have much of a grappling game. He has decent hands, but he also looks susceptible to getting hit. The odds suggest Palatnikov has a 28% chance to win this fight, a 14% chance to finish it early, and a 7% chance to get it done in R1. With him coming off a huge upset win and Kasanganay coming off the knockout of the year loss, this is the ultimate sell high, buy low, fade the recency bias spot as Palatnikov should go over owned, while Kasanganay is under owned.
Fight #12
Da Un Jung
4th UFC Fight (2-0-1)After turning pro at Heavyweight in 2015, Jung started his career in disappointing fashion, going 1-2 in his first three fights. Like many people might, Jung pondered what he was doing with his life after getting submitted in the first round by gelatinous journeyman Roque Martinez. Jung decided to make a major change, cut back on the Korean BBQ, and drop down to Light Heavyweight. Since the switch, Jung rattled off 12 straight wins, including nine KOs, two submissions and just one decision, before most recently fighting to a draw against the oldest 34-year-old in the world, Sam Alvey. For the record, Jung’s pre-UFC record is somewhat padded with wins over opponents that entered: 1-0, 1-3, 3-3, 16-10-2, 0-2, 5-7, 0-0, 8-6, 0-3, 4-0, and 6-1.
Despite the frustrating finish to his last match, Jung has proven that he’s a legit KO threat, with seven straight finishes going into that fight. He’s shown a solid chin and the ability to land heavy punches, but he doesn’t appear to have much of a grappling game. He did land a defensive submission in his 2019 UFC debut, when he choked Khadis Ibragimov out with a third round Guillotine to defend a takedown, but we haven't seen him work on the mat.
He followed up that win with a 64 second R1 KO of Mike Rodriguez, who proved to be too slow for the quick striking Korean. That was notably the only fight in Jung’s last seven to end in the first round, as his previous five finishes all came in the second round or later. He generally doesn’t seem to be in a rush to finish opponents and has a patient, methodical fighting style.
William Knight
11th UFC Fight (9-1)After playing COVID tag for months with Alonzo Menifield, the UFC finally gave up on that matchup when Knight tested positive for COVID leading up to their second scheduled, twice failed matchup. Menifield stayed on the March 27th card to show off his elite-level submission skills, while the UFC rebooked Knight two weeks later for this coming Saturday. The two had originally been scheduled to fight back in February, but Menifield tested positive for COVID going into that one. So fresh off a case of COVID, Knight now takes on another striker in Da Un Jung.
Knight made his UFC debut this past September against Aleksa Camur, who he defeated in a grappling heavy decision. Knight is now 9-1 as a pro and on a three fight winning streak. His only career loss came against another UFC newcomer, Tafon Nchukwi, in a 2019 225 lb Catchweight fight prior to them joining the UFC. His first nine pro fights all ended in knockouts, with Knight winning eight of those, including five in the first round. He doesn’t have any submission wins as a pro, but he did have three as an amateur and will look for Keylock submissions on the ground.
Despite already being 32 years old, Knight only started his pro MMA career three years ago and only started fighting as an amateur back in 2016. He did have a wrestling background to build on, as he was a state champion in high school.
He’s been on DWCS twice, first in 2019 and then most recently this past September. In his first appearance he scored a R3 KO that earned him a developmental contract. In that fight, he landed 4 of 7 takedown attempts while adding 97 significant strikes over the course of 14 minutes and 34 seconds.
In his second appearance on the show, he had a nightmare start as he was immediately taken down, then gave up his back and was taking heavy ground and pound while face down on the mat. The fight looked close to being stopped, however, Knight was able to stall long enough to get back to his feet and as his opponent shot for a second takedown, Knight landed several elbows to the side of his head which abruptly ended the match. It was a pretty flukey finish and he looked to be in real trouble prior to flipping the script.
Fight Prediction:
Jung will have a massive 6” height advantage and 5” reach advantage as he towers over the much stalkier Knight.
Knight is an incredibly powerful wrestler who relies on overpowering his opponents to exert his will, and then finishing them with strikes. On the other side of things, Jung is a stand up striker who has not landed a takedown in the UFC. If Knight can force this fight to the mat he will have a massive grappling advantage. Both of these guys have been extremely durable throughout their careers and we’re not expecting a quick KO before Knight has a chance to grapple, but both fighters have knockout power that could end the fight at any time. Because of that, we could see them each coming in a little more cautiously so don’t be surprised if we see a slightly longer feeling out process. We like the underdog Knight to pull the upset here, but he’ll be in trouble if he can’t get the fight to the mat.
We like Knight to pull off the upset here so his moneyline at +116 is the best option. It wouldn’t be shocking to see it go the distance, so “Knight Wins by Decision” at +500 also looks like good value. If you want to take a longer stab, check out “Knight Wins by R3 KO” at +1300 or even “Knight Wins by Submission” at +1800.
DFS Implications:
Jung’s listed 83% takedown defense is entirely based on Ibragimov’s six attempts (1 landed), as neither of Jung’s last two opponents have shot for any. Ibragimov notably has just a 30% career takedown accuracy. We haven’t seen Jung face a powerful wrestler like Knight, but it doesn’t appear to be a good stylistic matchup for him whatsoever. He wants to be in boxing matches, and hasn’t shown any sort of grappling game. That leaves him reliant on stuffing takedowns and trying to land a knockout blow as he has no chance at outgrappling Knight. Jung does have a considerable height and reach advantage, which could allow him to fight at distance and avoid the clinch, but that will also require a cautious approach that could lower his striking volume. That will leave him entirely reliant on a finish to score well in DFS, with reduced striking volume and non-existent grappling. He does notably check in with the fourth best odds on the slate to get the finish at +135, implying a 38% chance. He also has a 15% chance for first round finish according to the odds. Those numbers seem slightly on the generous side, but take them as you will. Jung looks like a slightly better play on FanDuel, where he can score from takedowns defended, compared to DraftKings, but is reasonably priced on both.
Knight was a popular underdog in his UFC debut, coming in at 34% owned, while interestingly the favorite Camur was just 27% owned. While Knight didn’t put up a huge score under the new DraftKings scoring system (86) which everyone can easily see, he did score 101 points under the old rules and ended up in the optimal DraftKings, thus getting many people excited about playing him at the time. However, he only scored 81 points on FanDuel in the win and he looks like a better DraftKings play where he can accrue control time if this does play out with large amounts of time spent in the clinch. With that said, Knight’s first eight career wins all came by KO, and if can get a finish here he’ll most likely end up in the optimal lineup on each site. He looks like a solid play here in a fight where he’ll have a major advantage on the mat. He just needs to avoid getting knocked out before he can get it there. Considering that both guys are both durable and dangerous it’s also possible we see a slower paced, disappointing decision here with each guy coming in cautiously, so we couldn’t recommend going all in on the matchup despite the juicy upside each fighter possesses.
Fight #11
Luis Saldana
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a November 2020 R3 KO win on DWCS, Saldana enters the UFC on a four fight winning streak and with a 14-6 pro record. Impressively, all 14 of his wins have come early with seven KOs and seven submissions. Three of his six losses have also come early, with one KO and two submissions. The KO loss came against Mike Santiago, who later went on to fight in the UFC, but went 0-3 before being released—in fairness two of the losses were to Dan Ige and Zabit. Both of Saldana’s submission losses were by Rear-Naked Choke, one in the third round of a 2015 match and the other in the first round of a 2012 fight. Saldana hasn’t been the quickest starter, with five of his last seven finishes coming in the later two rounds.
Saldana landed 77 significant strikes in his DWCS match over the course of just under 11 minutes. That pace would have been good for 108 strikes had the fight gone the full 15 minutes, so he throws decent volume. Prior to that win, Saldana took off 21 ones after suffering a jaw injury, meaning he’s only fought once in the last 26 months.
A large portion of his wins have come against fighters with very limited experience. Here are the records of his opponents coming into his fights: 1-3, 0-0, 0-2, 2-1, 0-2, 1-0, 4-4, 0-1, 4-3, 30-19-2, 23-25-1, 20-10, 10-4, and 12-3. So you can see half of his wins came against opponents who combined for a 4-9 record, but he did start fighting somewhat more experienced opponents recently in his last five wins.
Saldana lost his right index finger in a freak accident at work, which may have some effect on the impact of his punches from that hand, but he seems to have made it work for him. That is notably his power hand as he dominantly fights out of the orthadox stance. On the bright side, he’s 10% less likely to land an eye poke.
Jordan Griffin
5th UFC Fight (1-3)Griffin got his shot in the UFC with a 2018 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission on DWCS, but has since lost three of his four UFC fights, with all three losses ending in decisions. All of those were close unanimous 29-28 scores for what it’s worth. His lone UFC win was a 2020 R2 Guillotine Choke Submission against T.J. Brown, and notably his last five wins have all ended in submissions.
He’s now 18-8 as a pro, with 14 of his wins coming early, including five KOs and nine submissions. Three of his eight losses have also come early, with one KO and two submissions. However, he hasn’t been finished since 2014, and his lone KO loss came in the second round of a 2012 match via doctor stoppage. His two submission losses came in R1 of a 2011 fight via Guillotine Choke and R1 of a 2014 match by Rear-Naked Choke. His four most recent losses have all gone the distance.
Griffin is primarily a grappler and showed off his scooter sized gas tank in his last match against Youssef Zalal, as he looked gassed for the entire second half of the fight. His cardio clearly affected his output, as he only landed 28 significant strikes in the fight and went 2 for 8 on takedown attempts on his way to losing a decision.
Prior to that loss, Griffin was somehow able to choke T.J. Brown out with a Guillotine despite the fact that Brown was in side control, which is very rare to see. Griffin's skinny arms do appear to allow him to get deep under the chins of his opponents, but prior to the finish, Brown was dominating the match with seven takedowns and over seven minutes of control time just halfway through the fight. That finish remains Griffin’s only win in the UFC, in a fight he was getting dominated in up until that point.
Griffin is a low-volume striker who’s only landed 28, 15, 37 and 56 significant strikes in his last four fights. He’s also only landed three takedowns on 12 attempts in those fights and has been controlled by his opponents 51% of the time, while controlling the opposition just 23% of the time. Those two numbers combined show you that nearly three quarters of his time in the UFC has been spent either in the clinch or on the mat.
Fight Prediction:
Saldana will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 73” reach.
Griffin is a Southpaw which will leave his body (and Saldana’s) open to body kicks. Saldana is the better striker, and is more likely to take advantage of that as he throws a decent number of kicks. Griffin could be fighting for his job here, as he currently sits 1-3 in the UFC, and should come in desperately hunting for a submission, which is his best path to victory. If he fails to submit Saldana in the first half of the fight, we think Saldana has a good chance to land a late KO of his own. Both guys have struggled with the judges, as Saldana has lost all three of his career decisions and Griffin has lost his last four, so it’s anyone’s guess who comes out ahead if this one goes the distance. It still remains a mystery how Saldana will look on the UFC level as he hasn’t faced very tough competition to this point in his career, so there are potentially a wide range of outcomes here. As the superior striker, we think Saldana has the better chance to win this fight, but as a desperate veteran fighting for his job against a UFC newcomer, we kind of like Griffin’s chances to get a submission win here.
If this ends early, we think it either ends with a Griffin submission in the R1 (+1300) or R2 (+2000) or a Saldana R2 KO (+1700) or R3 KO (+2100). Saldana’s ITD line at +340 also looks like a good bet.
DFS Implications:
With 14 finishes in his 14 career wins, Saldana clearly has DFS upside. However, Griffin has been a tough guy to score well against so it doesn’t set up as a good spot for a striking volume explosion that would allow Saldana to hit his ceiling. His R3 KO on DWCS would have been good for 87 DraftKings points and 108 points on FanDuel, so a similar performance would really only keep him in the FanDuel discussion. It’s hard to see him returning value without a finish, and the odds suggest he has just a 19% chance to land one, with just an 8% chance that it comes in R1. The three fighters to defeat Griffin have put up DraftKings scores of just 86, 71 and 64 and none of them landed more than 59 significant strikes. There will be better matchups for Saldana in the future, this looks like a spot to tread lightly.
Griffin has had a tough schedule so far in the UFC and this will be his first time fighting anyone making their UFC debut. Desperate for a win to keep his job, this is a do or die spot for Griffin to show he belongs in the organization, which could be a driving factor for a potential ceiling performance. He’s overall an unexceptional fighter, but it would be surprising/disappointing if he didn’t leave it all out there Saturday. The odds imply he has a 20% chance to land a finish, but just an 8% chance that it comes in the first round. His lone UFC win did come by R2 submission, but it scored just 77 DraftKings points because Griffin was losing so badly before the finish. This looks like a good buy-low spot on Griffin, and we like his chances to land a submission win.
Fight #10
Jack Shore
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming in with a perfect 13-0 record that includes 12 finishes, Shore has submitted his last three opponents after knocking out the two prior to that. He has four total career wins by KO and eight by submission, including seven Rear-Naked Chokes and one Armbar.
In his September 2019 UFC debut, Shore took on an 0-1 (now 0-2) Nohelin Hernandez, who hasn’t fought since. Shore dominated the fight in all aspects, leading in significant strikes 46-6, total strikes 81-9, takedowns 4-0, and control time 6:31-0:40, and eventually finished the fight in the third round with a Rear-Naked Choke.
Shore’s second and most recent UFC fight was against late replacement Aaron Phillips, who was making his return to the UFC after being released after he lost a pair of decisions in his first two matches with the organization back in 2014. Similar to the performance Shore put on in his UFC debut, he dominated this fight, leading in significant strikes 29-6, total strikes 42-7, takedowns 3-0 and control time 5:25-0:05, before eventually submitting Phillips in the second round with another Rear-Naked Choke. Shore had then been scheduled to fight Khalid Taha last November, but was forced to withdraw and now hasn’t competed since last July.
After turning pro in 2016, Shore fought at 145 lb until 2017 when he moved down to the 135 lb division where he’s stayed since. A sparring partner of Brett Johns, Shore is clearly a strong grappler, but we’ve yet to see anyone even attempt a takedown on him so far in the UFC, so we’ve really only seen his offensive grappling at the UFC level. Now he’ll take on a wrestler in Hunter Azure, so it’ll be interesting to see how his defensive grappling holds up. It’s also possible we see more of a stand up battle with both guys respecting the other’s wrestling ability, as is often the case when two grapplers square off.
Hunter Azure
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Azure was a state champion wrestler in high school and then went on to wrestle for Montana State University, but dealt with multiple knee injuries/surgeries that derailed his wrestling career. He went pro in 2017 and after starting his career 6-0 with four finishes (three in R1), Azure made his way into the UFC with a 2019 decision win on DWCS. Azure led that fight in significant strikes 79-26, while landing 4 of 11 takedown attempts and notching five official submission attempts.
In his September 2019 UFC debut, Azure took on Brad Katona, who came into the match 2-1 in the UFC after losing to Merab Dvalishvili. Azure won a close low-volume decision, where he led on significant strikes 41-21, but spent the majority of the fight defending takedowns as he was pressed up against the cage. While Azure went 0 for 1 on his only attempted takedown, he successfully stopped 9 of Katona’s 12 attempts. Katona did accrue over six minutes of control time as he hunted for takedowns, but it wasn’t enough to earn him the win as Azure got the nod.
Similar to Shore, Azure also started his pro career at 145 lb, but moved down to 135 lb following his third pro fight in 2018. Since that move down to Bantamweight, Azure has only fought once back up at 145 lb, which came in his second UFC bout against Brian Kelleher in May 2020. The fight started well for Azure as he landed twice as many significant strikes as Kelleher, while defending all four of Kelleher’s takedown attempts. However, as the fight went on Kelleher seemed to be timing the striking of Azure better and caught him with a clean left hook to the chin that dropped Azure and ended the match with a second round KO. That remains the only loss for Azure in his career and he’s still undefeated in the 135 lb division.
Most recently, Azure dropped back down to 135 lb to take on Cole Smith, who came into the fight 1-1 in the UFC. Azure finally incorporated some offensive wrestling into his game plan, going 5 for 8 on takedowns along with eight minutes of control time, after going 0 for 1 on takedowns in his first two UFC fights. Azure also outlanded Smith 42-31 in significant strikes and landed a knockdown, on his way to a unanimous 29-28 decision win. Smith was able to pick things up late in the fight, winning the third round, and looked close to submitting Azure at times.
While four of Azure’s nine career wins have come early, four of his last five fights have ended in decisions—with the once expectation being a R2 KO loss. His biggest strength is his wrestling, but at times he seems to fall in love with the standup game, so it can be hard to predict his approach going into any given fight. He has decent striking, but not exceptional, and hasn’t landed above 62 significant strikes in any of his three UFC fights—although he did that in less than nine minutes of action against Kelleher, which would have been good for a pace of 107 strikes over the course of a 15 minute fight.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are listed at 5’8” but Shore will have a 2” reach advantage and actually looks taller.
This will be the toughest test to date for each of these guys. Azure has shown solid defensive wrestling so far in the UFC, as he’s successfully defended 16 of the 21 takedown attempts against him. He’s also never been submitted, with his only career loss coming by KO (when he fought up a weight class). Shore is the more dangerous grappler, but we’ve yet to see him face any real adversity in the UFC. Azure seems better at grinding out decisions than finishing opponents, but he does have three KOs and a submission win on his record, although all in his first five pro fights against less experienced opponents. We don’t expect Azure to put on an offensive expo here, so his path to victory is really just to prevent Shore from succeeding—similar to what he did to Brad Katona. The problem is that Shore is a much more talented fighter than Katona. Shore seems to wear on his opponents and his last four finishes have all come in the later rounds, including three in the third. Further increasing the odds of a late finish, Azure has looked the most vulnerable in the later rounds as he was knocked out in R2 against Brian Kelleher and then controlled and nearly submitted by Cole Smith in the third round of his last match after Azure won the first two rounds. We like Shore to get a finish in the second half of this fight, most likely by third round Rear-Naked Choke, but it’s possible Azure can survive to see a low-volume decision.
Shore has shown he can finish opponents with either ground and pound or submissions on the mat, so given the odds it makes sense to go with his round odds opposed to round and method. His ITD at +175 is the “safest” option, but we prefer betting his R2 Win line at +750 and R3 Win line at +1000.
DFS Implications:
Shore has put up solid numbers in each of his two UFC wins with DraftKings scores of 102 and 109 and FanDuel totals of 107 and 115. Both of those scores were on the backs of finishes and this will be a tougher match to dominate in the wrestling department. Therefore, Shore likely needs another finish to return value at his price tag. His ITD line implies he has a 29% chance to get it done with a 13% chance he ends it in the first round. He’s scored well with late finishes in the past, but just keep in mind that this will be a much tougher matchup to dominate on the ground, so it’s possible we see more of a striking battle with fewer grappling stats to prop up his score. He still has a high DFS ceiling, but that lowers his potential floor some. We still think he’s a solid play, just keep in mind he’ll be popular and has a higher chance to bust than in his previous two fights.
After failing to top 55 DraftKings points in his first two UFC fights, Azure was finally able to put up a decent DFS score in his third UFC match, where he notched 103 DraftKings points and 96 points on FanDuel, despite the fight ending in a decision. This will be Azure’s toughest fight to date and he’ll need a near perfect performance or a flukey finish to remain in the DFS conversation. While he was able to score well in a decision in his last match, Shore will be a much tougher opponent to fill up a score sheet on, so Azure likely needs a finish to end up in winning lineups. His ITD line implies he has a 15% chance to accomplish that feat. Shore averages the second most missed takedowns on the slate (6), so Azure makes more sense on FanDuel where he can score on takedowns defended and is also relatively cheaper.
Fight #9
Yorgan de Castro
4th UFC Fight (1-2)After winning the first six fights of his pro career, including five by KO with four ending in the first round, De Castro has now lost back-to-back decisions against Greg Hardy and Carlos Felipe.
De Castro made his way into the UFC through DWCS in 2019 when he landed a first round KO to secure a contract. He followed that up with another R1 KO in his 2019 UFC debut against a debuting Justin Tafa, who’s now 1-2 in the UFC. De Castro then took on a much larger Greg Hardy in his second UFC match, but suffered a toe injury in the second round that looked to compromise him for the remainder of the fight. After starting the fight decently, he eventually lost a decision. Five months later, he fought Carlos Felipe and lost another decision. De Castro looked exhausted by the end as he continuously pushed Felipe up against the cage to milk the clock.
Following the pair of disappointing decision losses, you have to think that De Castro will come into this fight extra motivated to get a win. Considering his terrible cardio, his only reliable method of winning is by knocking out his opponent early, so look for him to come in hungry to get the first round finish against an inferior opponent.
Jarjis Danho
3rd UFC Fight (0-1-1)Danho joined the UFC at 32 years old in 2016 with a perfect 5-0 record, that included four KOs and one submission to strikes. Three of those finishes came in the first round, one in the second and one in the third.
In his debut, Danho took on Daniel Omielanczuk, who came into the fight 2-2 in the UFC, but finished his UFC career 4-5. Danho looked exhausted by the second round, and milked a groin shot in the third round to the extent that he told the doctor that he couldn’t continue. The fight ended 91 seconds into the period due to an illegal strike resulting in a rare technical decision. It really didn’t look like a bad shot, so it was a bizarre finish to the match, where Danho essentially quit. He also took an illegal knee to the head earlier in the match, but it also didn’t look to do much damage. It was later disclosed that he had just undergone knee surgery recently before the fight, so that may have also played a factor.
Danho’s only other UFC fight was a September 2016 draw against Christian Colombo, who was making his UFC debut at age 36 and went 0-2-1 with the organization before getting released in 2017. Danho notably attempted five takedowns in this match, but landed just one of them. Danho again took an illegal knee in this match (he seems sneaky at throwing his hand to the mat when he thinks he might get kneed), and this one cut open the top of his head leaving him bleeding all over the place. The fight continued but Colombo was deducted a point for the foul, which eventually led to the fight being scored a draw. Otherwise Danho would be 0-2 in the UFC.
He did have three fights scheduled since the pair of 2016 fights, including one in 2017, another in 2019 and then most recently in 2020. Danho withdrew from the first two and the third was canceled due to COVID. Now 37 years old and nearly five years removed since he last fought, Danho is still looking for his first UFC win. He looked terrible in his first two UFC fights, with no power, no cardio, and no heart. Who knows what he’s been doing for the last half decade, but fighters in their late 30’s generally aren’t on their way up. The last thing we’ll point out is that despite how terrible Danho looked, he’s never actually been finished, but he’s faced highly questionable competition.
Fight Prediction:
Danho will have a 3” height advantage, but both fighters share a 74” reach.
Normally when we’re talking about fighters struggling after long layoffs it’s been 1 to 2 years since they last fought. Occasionally we see someone looking to come back after 2 to 3 years away, but it’s extremely rare that we have a fighter looking to get back inside the Octagon after nearly five years away. Like, the last time this guy fought Obama was still president. Also, he looked terrible even before the layoff and we’re pretty sure he didn’t take off his entire mid 30’s to do extensive martial arts training like he’s fucking Bruce Wayne or something. If you hadn’t noticed, the UFC is so desperate for Heavyweights they’ll pretty much roll out anyone with a pulse and a punch card. While Danho has never been finished as a pro, he’s faced questionable at best competition, and hasn’t really been tested. While De Castro is far from great, he at least knows how to throw his hands—at least in the first five minutes. This looks like a prime bounce back spot for De Castro and we think he gets a first round KO.
The oddsmakers are giving De Castro a lot of respect for a guy coming off two decision losses, so there’s not a ton of value to be had here, but we still like “De Castro Wins by R1 KO” at +220 as the best option.
DFS Implications:
De Castro has shown the ability to finish lower level fighters and Danho certainly fits the bill. De Castro is your typical R1 KO or bust Heavyweight, so if the fight does make it out of the first round he’s unlikely to return value without multiple knockdowns being involved. However, he leads the slate with an implied 56% chance to land a finish and a 24% chance it comes in the first round. Also, his ownership should be somewhat lower than your typical Heavyweight with those odds, based on the fact that he’s coming off a pair of decision losses and looks more like a mall cop than a professional fighter. Nevertheless, this looks like a good buy-low spot for him.
Danho is bad. Danho is really, really bad. If you thought Hunsucker sucked, wait ‘till you see what Dahno does. Also, De Castro has never been finished and survived three rounds with Greg Hardy, so it’s hard to see Danho getting it done here. Now he is a Heavyweight, and crazy things can happen when you get a couple of big boys swinging hams at each other, but Danho looks like a terrible play in all formats. On a slate this large, we don’t think you need to be playing this guy, but the odds do imply he has a 17% chance for a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1. If you asked us, both those numbers seem high. His best weapon appears to be his penchant for absorbing illegal blows as he plays red light green light with his hands on the mat. So maybe he can fool De Castro into a DQ, which may be his best chance to secure a win.
Fight #8
Ignacio Bahamondes
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut at 155 lb, Bahamondes’ last two fights have both been up at 170 lb. Seemingly a tweener, Bahamondes is too tall for the 155 lb division, but too skinny for the 170 lb weight class. He’s missed weight in the past cutting down to 155 lb, and weighed in at just 169.4 lb and 168.5 lb for his last two 170 lb fights. He’s bounced back and forth between the two weight classes throughout his career, starting at 170 lb when he originally went pro at just 18 years old in 2015, but then dropping down to 155 lb in 2017 and then back up to 170 lb in 2020. He’s gone 6-2 at 170 lb, with five wins by KO (four in R1) and one by decision. Both of the early losses in his career were by R1 submission at 170 lb. He’s gone 5-1 at 155 lb, with three KOs, two in R1 and one in R2, and two wins by decision. The three KOs as 155 lb notably came against opponents who entered with records of 0-3, 3-1, and 0-1, so he wasn’t exactly facing the toughest competition.
Born into fighting, Bahamondes’s father owns a martial arts school in Chile. He’s coming off a R2 KO win on DWCS back in November, against a portly Edson Gomez who missed weight for the fight, and not in an “oh maybe that’s an advantage” type of way. Dude was plump. Already way ahead on strikes, Bahamondes kicked Gomez in the chin with a straight shot up the middle that crumpled Gomez over like a wet paper bag. The highlight reel finish was enough to punch Bahamondes’ ticket to the UFC, where he’ll now face longtime UFC veteran John Makdessi.
Bahamondes comes into the UFC with an 11-3 record and has won seven of his last eight fights, with the one loss coming via decision. However, he’s fought a lot of questionable competition, and his opponents entered with records of: 0-4, 0-0, 3-1 (L), 0-3, 2-0, 3-3 (L), 0-1, 3-0, 3-1, 0-3, 7-1, 7-2 (L), 5-2, and 6-1. He’s a pure striker, and doesn’t appear to have any sort of grappling skills, although that likely won’t matter in his first UFC fight, as Makdessi doesn’t have any submission wins in his career either and it sets up purely as a kickboxing match.
At 6’3” Bahamondes’ is extremely tall for the division and his most dangerous weapons are his 9 ft long go go gadget legs. He likes to throw lots of spinning kicks, but he’s so tall they often sail over the heads of his opponents. Either way, that’s notable because both of John Makdessi’s career KO losses have come by head kick.
UPDATE: Bahamondes missed weight, originally coming in a pound over the limit at 157 lb, but then cutting it down to 156.75 lb with the towel. He took forever to weigh in and seemed sort of drained. His opponent notably weighed in at just 153.5 lb.
John Makdessi
18th UFC Fight (10-7)Making his 18th appearance inside the UFC Octagon, Makdessi hasn’t finished an opponent since 2015 when he knocked out Shane Campbell in the first round. Campbell notably went 1-4 in the UFC and was released in 2016 following his third early loss. Makdessi’s only other early wins in the UFC were a 2013 R1 KO of Renee Forte, who was released one fight later after he went 1-3 with the organization, and a 2011 R3 KO of Kyle Watson, who went 1-1 in the UFC and was released following the loss. While Makdessi has three finishes in the UFC, he’s also been finished three times, including a 2011 R1 Rear-Naked Choke, a 2015 R2 KO by Head Kick and a 2016 R1 KO via Spinning Wheel Kick. His other 11 UFC bouts all ended in decisions, including six of his last seven matches.
Makdessi is a truly uninspiring kickboxer who’s towards the end of his career. He’s won just frequently enough to hang around in the UFC, but not enough to impress anybody. Fittingly, he’s gone 4-4 in his last eight fights. For anyone that hasn’t watched the Cerrone finish of Makdessi, we implore you to do so. Makdessi got kicked in the jaw, took a step back and tried to call timeout as he called an end to the fight in a nah, fuck this sort of way. It looked like something a little kid would do when they’re play fighting with their older brother.
Fight Prediction:
Bahamondes will have a massive 7” height and reach advantage over the fun-sized Makdessi.
This will play out entirely on the feet as a kickboxing battle between two fighters on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of height and age. Makdessi looks vulnerable to head kicks, which Bahamondes specializes in, but outside of landing the perfect chin checker, we think this likely ends in a decision. Bahamondes’ finishes have come against pretty terrible opponents, so take his record with a grain of salt. A Bahamondes knockout victory is certainly possible, but we think he more likely wins a moderate volume decision.
We don’t love any of the lines in this spot, but the two least terrible options are that the “Fight Goes the Distance” at -135 and “Bahamondes Wins by R2 KO” at +850.
DFS Implications:
Bahamondes is overpriced relative to his chances of scoring well and needs a finish to return value. His striking volume should keep a R2 finish in play, but his complete lack of grappling makes it tougher for a R3 finish to still get there, especially on DraftKings. The odds imply Bahamondes has a 29% chance for a finish, which seems high, and a 12% chance to get it done in the first round. Makdessi has been vulnerable to face kicks in the past, so you could argue that increases the chances we see a finish, but that’s tough to rely on. Fading this fight looks like the play here, but you’ll want to sprinkle in some exposure to Bahamondes in case Makdessi calls timeout and quits again or Don Quixote’s his way into a windmill.
Makdessi’s only usable DFS score in his last 10 fights came in his 2015 R1 KO of Campbell. He doesn’t have a takedown in any of his 17 UFC fights and needs a finish to score well in DFS. He’s topped 86 significant strikes just twice in his career, when he landed 131 significant strikes in a 2018 decision win that still scored just 83 DraftKings points, and a 2015 decision loss where he landed 114 significant strikes.
Fight #7
Mateusz Gamrot
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off a close split decision loss in his October 2020 UFC debut, Gamrot was previously undefeated as he entered the UFC with a perfect 17-0 pro record. He attempted a massive 16 takedowns in his UFC debut, but only landed five of them in a low-volume affair where he came out ahead on significant strikes 52-37.
Three of his last four fights have now ended in decisions, including two five rounders. The one early stoppage over that time came from a third round doctor stoppage. He does have nine finishes among his 17 career wins, including five KOs and four submissions, but his last 12 fights have all made it out of the first round, and nine of those made it to the third. He’s more of a technical fighter than a finisher and three of his five KOs/TKOs came from doctor/corner stoppages, opposed to actual knockouts.
Even before joining the UFC we saw him shoot for a high number of takedowns, with a subpar accuracy, so expect that trend to continue here.
Scott Holtzman
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Looking to bounce back after suffering the first early loss of his career, Holtzman was knocked out by Beneil Dariush in the first round of their August 2020 fight with a highlight reel spinning back fist. Holtzman came into that fight with a 14-3 pro record with all three of his losses ending in decisions. Half of Holtzman’s 14 career wins have come early, with five KOs and two submissions, including knockouts in two of his last three wins. Prior to the recent loss, none of his previous 14 fights had ended in the first round and 12 had made it to round three. Seven of his 11 UFC matches have gone the full 15 minutes, but he does have three finishes with the organization, including a 2015 R3 Rear-Naked Choke in his debut, a 2018 R3 KO and a 2019 R2 KO.
Holtzman has just an average 66% career takedown defense, but that number has actually improved in his last five fights where he’s stopped 24 of the 30 (80%) attempts against him. His last five opponents have gone 0 for 2, 0 for 2, 1 for 3, 5 for 19, and 0 for 4 on takedowns. That sets up well for Holtzman now going against Gamrot who went 5 for 16 on takedowns in his UFC debut.
Fight Prediction:
Gamrot will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is seven years younger than Holtzman.
These two fighters have combined for just one early loss in 36 combined pro fights. That loss did notably come in Holtzman’s last outing when Dariush knocked him out in the first round. Holtzman looks to have more power behind his strikes in this matchup, but Gamrot is the more technical fighter. We expect Gamrot to fight for a decision here as he looks to control the fight with grappling and technical striking. Holtzman will look to land heavy uppercuts while defending Gamrot’s takedown attempts, and potentially mix in a takedown or two of his own. It’s hard to see this fight ending early, but if it does it will likely be from a Gamrot submission or a Holtzman KO. We think Gamrot wins a decision here, but Holtzman has a chance to steal it if he can stay upright.
The best bet here is that the “Fight Goes the Distance” at -182, but you can also consider “Gamrot Wins by Decision” at +100, “Holtzman Wins by Decision” at +440, or the “Fight Ends in R3” at +800.
DFS Implications:
While this is theoretically a good buy-low spot for Gamrot after he lost a split decision in his debut while attempting an eyebrow-raising 16 takedown attempts, it will be tough for him to return value at his high price tag without a finish. The most likely outcome is a decision win that scores 85-90 DraftKings points, which won’t be enough for him to be useful on the slate. It is possible that he puts up a huge takedown performance purely based on his volume, but Holtzman’s takedown defense has been solid lately and he’s only been taken down six times on his opponents’ last 30 attempts. Gamrot is unlikely to land a knockout or put up a ton of striking volume, so he’s reliant on a dominating grappling performance and/or a submission win to score well. His ITD and R1 win lines imply he has a 20% chance to finish this fight early and just a 9% chance for a first round finish.
Holtzman has put up big DFS numbers when he wins even in decisions, with DraftKings totals of 86, 114, 104, 127, 115 and 106 in his last six victories (85, 125, 124, 91, 115, and 106 on FanDuel). Four of those six wins notably went the distance. He typically fills up the scoresheet with striking, knockdowns, takedowns landed/defended, and control time. With that said, he’s only landed two takedowns in his last four fights, and now going up against a strong grappler makes a takedown resurgence somewhat less likely. We could, however, see periods of time spent in the clinch as Gamrot hunts for takedowns, potentially bolstering control time and takedowns defended. After seeing Gamrot go 5 for 16 on takedowns in his recent debut, Holtzman has the potential to defend a double digit number of takedown attempts in this spot. If he can pair that with decent striking volume and a knockdown, he has the potential to still put up a usable score as a value play on FanDuel even in a decision. He still has the potential to score well on DraftKings as well, but he’ll likely need to either out wrestle Gamrot or land a finish to do so, so his path to scoring well is a bit narrower in our eyes. The odds imply Holtzman has a 32% chance to win this fight and 16% chance to get it done early.
Fight #6
Joe Solecki
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming in on a five fight winning streak, Solecki has won seven of his last eight fights, with five first round finishes over that time. He got his shot in the UFC with a first round submission win on DWCS in 2019, and then absolutely smothered veteran Matt Wiman for 15 minutes in his 2019 UFC debut. Solecki led in significant strikes 56-10, total strikes 177-20, takedowns 4-0, and control time 12:29-0:06 and you’d be hard pressed to know he was making his debut simply by watching the fight.
He followed up the lopsided decision win with a first round finish in his recent match against Austin Hubbard. After starting off the fight with some striking, Soelcki backpacked Hubbard two minutes into the first round, slowly working his way around Hubbard’s neck and forcing him to tap while still standing up.
All eight of Solecki’s career finishes have notably come in the first round, with all but one of those coming by submission. The only time he’s been finished himself was a 2018 R3 KO, with his only other career loss coming in a 2017 decision. Solecki also has two decision wins of his own to go with his eight finishes.
As a fellow Jersey wrestler, Solecki grew up admiring Miller, so it will be interesting to see if he gets caught stargazing at all early on in the fight. He claims that won’t be the case, but you never really know until the fight starts.
Jim Miller
37th UFC Fight (21-14, NC)Now 37 years old, Miller hasn’t landed a finish outside of the first round in the last decade, going all the way back to a R3 KO win in March 2011. With that said, he has four first round submission wins in his last seven fights, although those are his only four wins in his last 11 matches. After losing four fights in a row from 2017-2018, Miller has at least gone 4-3 in his last seven bouts.
Miller was taken down three times on five attempts by Vinc Pichel in his last fight, which matched the total number of times he had been taken down in his previous eight fights combined. Pichel won a low-volume, grappling heavy decision where he outlanded Miller 41-14 in significant strikes and came out ahead on control time 6:34-5:10. Miller landed two takedowns of his own, but Pichel clearly won the fight.
Six of Miller’s last eight fights have ended in R1, with the two losses occurring when Dan Hooker knocked him out and Charles Oliveira submitted him, both in 2018. The only other people to finish Miller in his career are Michael Chiesa (2015 R2 Rear-Naked Choke), Donald Cerrone (2014 R2 KO) and Nate Diaz (2012 R2 Guillotine Choke), so it’s not like he’s been losing to bums.
Fight Prediction:
Solecki will have a 1” height advantage but Miller will have a 1” reach advantage.
Miller is always live to land a R1 submission—oftentimes off his back—but Solecki is such a good wrestler that we think that is less likely than usual here. Solecki has won five straight fights alternating between R1 submission wins and decisions. Coming off another first round submission victory, we think that trend most likely continues with another decision win here as he’s forced to respect Miller’s dangerous submission game. If the fight makes it past the first round, look for Solecki to win a grappling heavy decision and stretch his winning streak to six.
We expect this fight to either “End with a R1 Submission” at +600 or “Solecki Wins by Decision” at +115. You can also look at the individual fighters’ R1 Submission lines, which are both set at +1200 (Solecki is the preferred option).
DFS Implications:
Solecki has shown the ability to score well on DraftKings whether he wins early or smothers his opponent for the full 15 minutes. The same cannot be said on FanDuel, as Solecki scored a thundering 119 DraftKings points in his decision win in his UFC debut, but just 78 points on FanDuel. Therefore Solecki will be reliant on a finish to return value on FanDuel, making him a much better DraftKings play. When you pair two wrestlers up against each other, there’s also always the chance that they respect one another’s grappling skills to the extent that it turns into a stand up battle. That should at least give some reason for pause when considering Solecki’s floor on either site, but we still think this plays out as a wrestling match. The odds suggest he has a 26% chance to get a finish and just an 11% chance that it comes in the first round. Keep in mind, all of Solecki’s career finishes have come in R1.
Miller hasn’t landed more than two takedowns in any of his last 11 fights and hasn’t topped 58 significant strikes in his last 10. He sets up as a R1 or bust DFS play, who’s only realistic shot at winning is landing a hail mary R1 submission. The odds suggest he has just an 8% chance of getting the R1 finish, while his ITD line implies a 19% chance he gets a finish. His R1 line seems low for a guy that has submitted four of his last seven opponents in the first round, but Solecki is a really solid grappler and has never been submitted. Miller offers a slate-breaking ceiling, but a nonexistent floor. His last two wins were so hyper-efficient that they barely showed up in the statsheet, with just two significant strikes in each and no knockdowns or takedowns in either. Miller’s defensive finishing ability lowers his chances for being the highest scorer on the slate when considering FanDuel MVPs. He notably doesn’t have a single knockdown in the last 10 years and hasn’t landed more than two takedowns in his last 11 fights. He’ll still end up in the optimal with a R1 submission win, but he’s unlikely to be the highest scoring fighter on FanDuel.
Fight #5
Daniel Rodriguez
6th UFC Fight (4-1)After three straight bangers, D-Rod sat on a duck in his last outing. His opponent, Nicolas Dalby, used a karate-style stance that left Rodriguez unsure of how to find openings as he’s used to just brawling with guys. Despite Rodriguez finishing ahead 83-50 in significant strikes and neither fighter landing a takedown—Rodriguez on two attempts and Dalby on seven—Dalby won a unanimous decision. It was a strange and disappointing fight that ended D-Rod’s nine fight winning streak.
After winning his February 2020 UFC debut against Tim Means with a R2 Standing Guillotine Choke Submission, Rodriguez was scheduled to fight Kevin Holland on May 30th. However, Holland withdrew shortly before the fight, and Gabe Green was thrown into the fire on short notice.
After easily defeating Green in an ultra high-volume decision, Rodriguez was next scheduled to fight Takashi Sato on August 22nd. However, Sato wasn’t medically cleared the day before the fight and was forced to withdraw. Dwight Grant had also lost his opponent that week, after both Gooden and then late replacement Born both withdrew. That left the two Welterweights in Grant and Rodriguez opponent-less so it made sense to pair them up against each other. Surely Grant wasn’t thrilled going from an easy opponent in newcomer Gooden, to an easier opponent in smaller newcomer Born, only to end up against Rodriguez on one day’s notice, but he grudgingly accepted.
Grant came dangerously close to finishing Rodriguez early in R1 with a knockdown followed by some extensive ground and pound in the first minute. It looked like the ref was an eye blink away from stopping the fight, but he let it go on. Rodriguez was able to recover and quickly turn the tables, dropping Grant a couple of times in the next 90 seconds. The ref was much quicker to stop the fight as Grant took a beating, but Grant was clearly compromised by Rodriguez’s punches. With the win, Rodriguez stretched his winning streak to nine and started 3-0 in the UFC.
Most recently, Rodriguez had been scheduled to fight Bryan Barberena on November 11th, before Barberena withdrew for medical reasons. Rodriguez was unable to find a replacement on short notice, so he had to wait for a new opportunity. It only took a week for a slot to open up, as Dalby’s opponent withdrew, allowing Rodriguez to step in as a late replacement, but it didn’t go his way. Following the decision loss to Dalby, D-Rod will now look to bounce back against a fellow brawler, which is far more D-Rod’s style.
Mike Perry
15th UFC Fight (7-7)The UFC treats Mike Perry like he has a learning disability and they’re trying to teach him how to read. In fairness he probably does, and maybe they are, but that’s not the point. Oh Mike Perry missed weight by 5 lb? Maybe he just needs to move up a weight class, he really doesn’t enjoy cutting weight [Perry posts pictures of himself0 devouring burgers and pizza during fight week]. Did you see Mike Perry land a takedown and ALMOST get his first career submission against Tim Means, isn’t that amazing, he’s trying so hard [loses a unanimous decision]. Mike Perry’s grappling looked so good against Mickey Gall, we were all so impressed [landed one takedown]. It only takes ONE shot from Mike Perry to win a fight he has such a dangerous right hand [zero knockouts in his last 9 fights]. Oh Mike Perry got arrested for assault? Well that’s just Mike Perry being Mike Perry [you mean a POS?]. Oh look, Mike Perry has his girlfriend in his corner, isn’t that fun [he’s burned every bridge he’s ever had and no one wants to be associated with him].
Everyone needs to come to terms with who Mike Perry really is. Mike Perry is 1-3 in his last four fights and 3-6 in his last nine. All three of his wins over that period have come by decision and his last KO was nearly four years ago against a fighter that went 0-1 in the UFC before retiring. His second most recent KO came against a fighter who was in the midst of a four fight losing streak and lost 6 of his last 7 fights before also retiring. Perry’s only other two UFC KOs came against Danny Roberts, who’s gone 4-4 in his last eight fights, and Hyun Gyu Lim, who’s lost 3 of his last 4 matches. Mike Perry is a sideshow trainwreck that the UFC keeps around because his name apparently still sells tickets despite the fact that 4 of his last 5 fights ended in decisions.
After posting pictures of him binge eating leading up to his last fight, Perry shockingly missed weight by 4.5 lb, so it will be interesting to see where he ends up this time. UPDATE: Perry actually made weight this time Oh good for him, he did his job.
To Perry’s credit, he has been a tough guy to finish with just two early losses in his career. However, both of those came in the first round over his last six fights—2019 R1 KO vs. Geoff Neal and 2018 R1 Armbar vs. Donald Cerrone. Perry could be on the verge of being cut by the UFC with a loss here, but who knows as he seems to have an infinitely long leash.
Fight Prediction:
Rodriguez will have a 3” height and reach advantage.
Sure, Mike Perry still theoretically has a dangerous right hand—or maybe he doesn’t. Who knows, because it’s been so long since he finished anyone with it. Maybe he ran out of ammo a long time ago and now he’s just pointing an empty gun at people, bluffing his way to another pizza pay day, while he screams about how the whole world’s out to get him. Regardless, if Perry lands one more KO in his career, we’ll still sleep easy knowing we were right 90% of the time betting against him. In case it wasn’t obvious, we’re picking D-Rod to win this one.
Our favorite play here is simply D-Rod’s moneyline at -166. “Rodriguez Wins by KO” at +330 and “Rodriguez Wins by Decision” at +185 are fine, but there’s not quite enough value there to make them good plays. Keep in mind he also has four wins by submission, making this a tougher one to nail down the outcome. Four of D-Rod’s seven career KOs have come in the second round, so you can consider “Rodriguez Wins by R2 KO” at +1200. His last submission win also came in the second round, so you can also consider his R2 Win line at +850. Overall, there are too many potential outcomes here to feel good about any specific round/method bet, so we’d recommend sticking with D-Rod’s -166 moneyline.
DFS Implications:
If this fight ends in a decision we could see it playing out similarly to the Perry/Luque fight in terms of stats. Luque won a split decision there, with Perry slightly ahead on significant strikes 87-84 and no takedowns landed in the match. Luque scored just 64 DraftKings points in the win.
D-Rod has scored 100 or more DraftKings points in all three of his UFC wins (R1 KO, Decision & R2 Submission), but his decision win included insane volume that we don’t expect to see here. That leaves him reliant on a finish to return value at his price tag and Perry has only been finished twice in his career. The odds do imply D-Rod has a 29% chance to land a finish, with a 12% chance it comes in the first round. His disappointing decision loss in his last match should also provide somewhat of a heat check in terms of his ownership after he was 46% owned on DraftKings in that last fight.
Perry has landed two takedowns in his last five fights and has only topped 65 significant strikes twice (76 & 87) in his last 12 bouts. So he’s entirely reliant on a KO to score well, which is something he’s failed to accomplish in his last nine fights. He’s scored above 71 DraftKings points just once in those last nine matches, which is when he put up 91 against Mickey Gall. His previous decision totaled just 62 DraftKings points. There will undoubtedly be a portion of the field chasing the ghost of Mike Perry, so he’ll likely be overowned. The odds imply Perry has a 23% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1, but we’re not buying those numbers and think those odds are artificially inflated based on what people are willing to pay. Play Mike Perry at your own peril.
Fight #4
Nina Ansaroff/Nunes
8th UFC Fight (4-3)After winning four straight fights in 2017 and 2018, Ansaroff lost a decision in June 2019 to the #2 ranked Strawweight, Tatiana Suarez, and hasn’t fought since. The layoff was planned as Ansaroff wanted to start a family with her new wife Amanda Nunes, and Ansaroff gave birth in September 2020. Seven months removed from becoming a Mom, Ansaroff now looks to resume her UFC career 22 months after she last fought.
A 3rd degree black belt in Taekwondo, but just a purple belt in BJJ, Ansaroff much prefers to fight on her feet. While she doesn’t offer knockout power, she has landed 92 or more significant strikes in three of her seven UFC fights, including 143 landed on Angela Hill in a 2017 decision win. Ansaroff notably has landed just two takedowns in the UFC and none in her last four bouts. She’s also never landed a knockdown and all seven of her fights have made it to the third round, with six going the distance.
Her takedown defense has been solid, as she’s stopped 77% of her opponents’ attempts. Here are her opponents’ takedown results against her (Landed of Attempted) in Ansaroff’s seven UFC fights beginning with the most recent:
4 of 13 - 2019 Decision Loss
2 of 10 - 2018 Decision Win
1 of 11 - 2018 Decision Win
0 of 0 - 2017 Decision Win
0 of 1 - 2017 R3 Submission Win
3 of 10 - 2016 Decision Loss
1 of 4 - 2014 Decision Loss
So her opponents have combined to land only 11 of 49 attempts against her. Now she goes up against Mackenzie Dern and Dern’s that-can’t-be-right 5% takedown accuracy.
Six of Ansaroff’s 10 career wins have come early, with four KOs and two submissions, but five of those came in 2011-2013 against a lower level of competition before she joined the UFC. Her only finish in the UFC came in a 2017 R3 Rear-Naked Choke against Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger, who went 0-3 with the organization before retiring after the loss to Ansaroff. Five of Ansaroff’s six career losses have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2011 R1 Rear-Naked Choke in her fourth pro fight.
Ansaroff came into her last fight as the number three ranked Women’s Strawweight in the world, but after losing a decision and then taking nearly two years off, she’s since slid down to #5. She’ll look to stop her slide against the #11 ranked Strawweight Mackenzie Dern.
Mackenzie Dern
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Coming in on a three fight winning streak, Dern landed back-to-back R1 submissions to begin her 2020 campaign, before defeating fellow submission specialist Virna Jandiroba in a December decision. Dern has three first round submission wins in the UFC, with her other three fights ending in decisions.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Dern’s only career loss came in a October 2019 decision against Amanda Ribas in Dern’s first fight back after having a baby in June of 2019 and being away from the Octagon for 17 months.
Here are Dern’s takedowns (Landed of Attempted) beginning with the most recent:
0 of 5 - Decision W
0 of 0 - R1 Submission W
0 of 1 - R1 Submission W
0 of 6 - Decision L
0 of 0 - R1 Submission W
1 of 6 - Decision W
Amazingly, Dern hasn’t landed a takedown in any of her submission wins, as she continues to throw snot balls and ankle trips at her opponents to try and get things to the mat any way she can. Her takedown accuracy and defense may be a bit perplexing at first glance, but the context required to fully understand her pathetic 5% takedown accuracy and 0% defense is that she will do whatever’s possible to try and get the fight to the ground. Whether that’s pulling guard, pretending to slip on a missed kick/banana peel or just generally tangling herself up with her opponents. While the numbers look terrible, her unorthodox strategy has proven to be effective.
Three of her last four wins have come in the first round, after she won her 2018 UFC debut against Ashley Yoder in a decision. Five of Dern’s six career submission wins have notably come in R1. Dern has never landed more than 82 significant strikes in a UFC fight, which came in her last match. She’s also never absorbed more than 74, which was in her lone decision loss against Amanda Ribas.
Fight Prediction:
Ansaroff will have a 1” height and reach advantage, but Dern is seven years younger.
As long as this fight stays standing up, Ansaroff will have the advantage in striking accuracy and volume, leaving Dern reliant on landing wild power shots. If Ansaroff can survive the entanglement with the dangerous tentacles of Dern in the first round, then we like her to point her way to a decision in this spot. Ansaroff has shown a strong ability to defend takedowns and seems unlikely to engage Dern on the mat given a choice, leaving Dern reliant on tripping Ansaroff up and grabbing a limb to suck her into deep waters. Dern’s always a submission threat, but this looks like a tough matchup for her, and an Ansaroff decision victory is the most likely outcome here.
The best two bets here are “Ansaroff Wins by Decision” at +185 and “Dern Wins by R1 Submission” at +1000.
DFS Implications:
Ansaroff will bolster her FanDuel score with takedowns defended if she can survive the submission attempts by Dern and take this fight to a decision. In Dern’s three UFC decisions she’s gone 1 for 17 on takedowns, with consistently poor performances of 0 for 5, 0 for 6, and 1 for 6 on her attempts. Meanwhile, Ansaroff has successfully defended 38 of the 49 takedowns attempts against her in the UFC. Ansaroff has also averaged a respectable 96 significant strikes landed over her last three wins and will have the clear advantage on the feet in this fight. While Ansaroff lacks the grappling stats and finishing ability to score well on DraftKings in a decision, she could be a sneaky option on FanDuel as a value play. We don’t expect an eruption spot, but she could easily score in the 90’s with a decision win, and potentially top 100 if Dern approaches 10 takedown attempts. We don’t expect a finish from Ansaroff, but the odds do suggest she has a 21% chance to be the first person to ever finish Dern, with a 9% chance it comes in R1. Those numbers seem a little high to us, but they are encouraging.
Dern has been a R1 or bust fighter for DFS purposes, and has never had a professional fight end in the second round. She only has one finish outside of the first round and that was a R3 Armbar with 15 seconds left in a 2017 Invicta match. Ansaroff has only been finished once in her career, which came in a 2011 R1 Rear-Naked Choke in her fourth pro fight. Dern’s ITD line implies she has a 21% chance to finish this fight early and her R1 line suggests a 9% chance she finishes the fight in R1. We think those two numbers should be closer based on her history, but they’re notably identical to Ansaroff’s chances.
Fight #3
Julian Marquez
4th UFC Fight (2-1)A disciple of James Krause, Marquez recently made his first appearance inside the Octagon since July 2018. Going up against a desperate Maki Pitolo, Marquez looked to be two rounds behind going into the third, but landed a submission with 43 seconds left in the match to steal the victory. Marquez did come out ahead on significant strikes 41-32, but Pitolo landed five takedowns on 11 attempts and amassed over nine minutes of control time. Marquez would generally rather go for a Guillotine submission than actually defend a takedown and finished with four official submission attempts. Marquez now has 10 official submission attempts in his last four fights, with his last two wins both coming by submission.
The reason for Marquez’s extended layoff is that he suffered a potentially career ending injury when he completely tore his latissimus dorsi muscle in 2018. Prior to the injury/loss, Marquez looked like an up and coming prospect who was drawing praise from self described fan, Dana White.
Marquez got his shot in the UFC when he knocked out a highly touted prospect in Phillip Hawes in the second round of their 2017 DWCS match. Then in his UFC debut, Marquez submitted Darren Stewart in the second round with a Guillotine Choke, before losing a decision to Alessio Di Chirico right before his extended layoff. After 571 days of recovery, Marquez was finally cleared to fight again in January of 2020, but was forced to wait a bit longer due to the pandemic.
Then, 28 months after suffering the injury Marquez had been scheduled to fight Saparbeg Safarov back on November 14th 2020, but Safarov dropped out shortly before the event due to a “Botched Weight Cut”. Marquez ultimately had to wait 31 months before stepping back inside the Octagon to face Pitolo, which could help to explain his slow start in the match.
All eight of Marquez’s career wins have come early—six by KO and two by submission, with four R1 finishes, three R2 wins and then his recent third round finish. However, two of his R1 KOs came in his first two fights against opponents who had never fought professionally before and then went on to never fight again.
Marquez has never been finished early, and both of his career losses ended in decisions. He’s shown a solid chin and can definitely take a punch. He’s won six of his last seven fights, with the one loss during that time coming in a questionable split decision.
Sam Alvey
21sth UFC Fight (10-9-1)Alvey’s best result in his last five fights came in his last outing when he fought Da Un Jung to a draw. The last time Alvey actually had a reason to smile was back in 2018 when he defeated Gian Villante by decision after knocking out Marcin Prachnio in the first round of his prior match. Following the pair of 2018 wins, Alvey was knocked out twice, before losing a pair of decisions leading up to his recent draw. Going 0-4-1 in his last five fights and 3-6-1 in his last 10, Alvey’s beginning to look like a used car salesman trying to convince Dana White he still deserves a spot in the UFC.
Alvey does have six finishes in the UFC, but five of those came in his first eight UFC fights, and he only has one since. Five of his six early wins in the UFC came in the first round, with the other occuring in the second. Five of those finishes were by KO, while the sixth was by Guillotine Choke. After showing some finishing ability early in his UFC career, 9 of his last 12 fights have gone to the judges.
Despite his recent struggles, Alvey has historically been a tough guy to finish. He’s only been knocked out three times in his 48 pro fights: 2015 R1 by Derek Brunson, 2018 R2 by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and 2019 R1 by Jimmy Crute. Alvey notably went three rounds with Ryan Spann and Da Un Jung in his last two matches. The only person to ever submit Alvey was Gerald Meerschaert in a 2010 R5 Guillotine Choke.
Alvey started his pro career at 185 lb, but moved up to the 205 lb division in 2018, following a decision loss to Ramazeen Emeev. Since the move Alvey has gone 2-4-1, winning his first two up a weight class, but then dropping four in a row before his recent draw. Alvey is now moving back down to 185 lb for the first time in three and a half years so it will be interesting to see how he looks. Alvey’s last five fights at 185 lb all notably ended in decisions.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’2” but Alvey will have a 3” reach advantage.
Marquez has been taken down at least four times in all three of his UFC fights, but Alvey has only landed one takedown in 20 UFC matches. On the other side of things Marquez has gone 0 for 5 on his own takedowns attempts over the span of his three UFC fights. So this likely sets up as a standup striking battle. Receptive to being taken down as he attempts Guillotine Submissions and content with looking for knockout blows opposed to pointing his way to victory, Marquez’s fighting makes for a good show, but generally doesn’t lend itself to winning decisions and he’s 0-2 in fights that have gone the distance. Alvey has been a tough guy to finish for the most part and is coming off three straight decisions. He’s only been finished in four of his 48 professional fights, three by KO and one by submission. Marquez has a decent shot at getting a finish here, and we could see him ending the fight with a choke after knocking Alvey down, but Alvey could theoretically steal a decision if this goes the distance, although it’s not likely.
Considering that Marquez has nine submission attempts and two submission wins in his three UFC fights, we like his submission line at +800, his R2 submission line at +2600 and his R3 submission line at +4000. If Marquez doesn’t get a finish, it’s also slightly possible Alvey steals a decision at +380.
DFS Implications:
Despite landing a third round submission in his last match, Marquez scored just 69 DraftKings points as he failed to land any takedowns or many strikes. He did notably perform better on FanDuel, where his six takedowns defended and four submission attempts helped to bolster his score. However, Alvey rarely shoots for any takedowns so you can’t rely on that in this match. Marquez looks like he’ll need a finish in the first two rounds to be relevant on this slate. The odds suggest he has roughly a 30% chance to accomplish that and a 16% chance to end it in R1.
Alvey similarly needs a finish to score well and hasn’t topped 62 DraftKings points in his last six fights. In fairness, he doesn’t have a win in his last five. However, he hasn’t scored about 33 DraftKings points in any of those and the last three went the distance. So even if those decisions had gone his way he would have still scored horribly. Alvey hasn’t landed more than 63 significant strikes in any of his last 19 fights and only has one takedown over that time. He also hasn’t landed a knockdown in any of his last five matches and has averaged just 6.5% control time over the last three years. He’s entirely reliant on a finish to score well and he’s only finished 1 of his last 12 opponents, which came against a terrible Marcin Prachnio. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Alvey get cut following a loss in this match. For the sickies looking for a reason to play him, the odds suggest he has a 20% chance to finish Marquez early, which seems really high, and Alvey appears to be fighting for his UFC job, but this looks like a guy you want to fade.
Fight #2
Sodiq Yusuff
5th UFC Fight (4-0)After five of Yusuff’s first seven pro fights ended in KOs, three of his last five—beginning with his appearance on DWCS—have gone the distance. He’s alternated R1 KOs and decisions over his last six fights and for what it’s worth is coming off a decision. His last nine fights have all ended with either a first round KO or in a decision. The only loss of his 12 fight pro career was a 2017 R1 KO, but he’s won six straight since.
Yusuff had been scheduled to fight Edson Barboza back in October of last year, but ended up withdrawing. It’s now been 15 months since he defeated Andre Fili in a decision.
His first UFC knockout was against a debuting Suman Mokhtarian in 2018, who’s now 0-2 in the UFC and hasn’t fought since December 2019. His only other finish in the UFC was in 2019 against another brawler in Gabriel Benitez, who 3 of his last 4 fights have ended in R1. Following that win, Yusuff talked about bonus hunting for what it’s worth.
Yusuff has failed to land any takedowns in the UFC, but his only three attempts came in his 2019 match against Sheymon Moraes. The only opponent to attempt to take him down was Andre Fili, who did so three times on seven attempts.
Arnold Allen
8th UFC Fight (7-0)Coming in on a nine fight winning streak, Allen’s last three and five of his last six fights have ended with the judges. His only two UFC fights to end early were his 2015 UFC debut and a 2018 fight, both of which ended with third round Guillotine Chokes. Allen is now 16-1 as a pro with his only career loss coming in a 2014 decision. Nine of his last 10 fights have made it to the third round with the only exception being a win by TKO due to a doctor’s stoppage following the second round in a 2014 bout.
While 9 of Allen’s 16 career wins have come early, six of those came in his first seven pro fights against less experienced opponents. Allen is a crisp striker, with exceptional hand speed and good footwork, but he’s an unlikely candidate to land many finishes. He’s not bonus hunting or looking for highlight reel finishes, he’s purely focused on winning fights (according to him).
Allen landed eight takedowns in his first three UFC fights, but only one in his last four matches, on just three attempts. He seems content with keeping fights on the feet, but he’s also faced several submission specialists which would obviously contribute to him not looking to take fights to the ground. In his most recent fight against a pure striker (when he took on Gilbert Melendez), Allen did go one for two on takedowns. On the other side of things, his opponents were able to take him down 12 times in his first four UFC fights, but none in his last three. His last three opponents went 0 for 3, 0 for 2 and 0 for 9 on takedown attempts against him.
In his first five UFC fights, Allen never landed above 37 significant strikes and his opponents never landed more than 35. The significant striking volume in his last two fights increased, with totals of 102-23 and 63-49. Allen has never been knocked down in the UFC, but has also only landed 2 knockdowns of his own.
Fight Prediction:
Yusuff will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
Yusuff is the more powerful fighter who likes to hunt for early knockouts, while Allen relies on his speed and footwork to point his way to decision wins. Yusuff is far more willing to brawl, while Allen has only absorbed more than 35 significant strikes once in his seven UFC fights, which came in his last match when Nik Lentz landed 49. Both of these two are very talented fighters, and each is putting their undefeated UFC record on the line. Because of that, it wouldn’t be surprising if they both come in a little more tentative than they would in a fight they were expecting to easily dominate. We expect this fight to end in a lower-volume decision that could go either way.
We like betting the fight goes the distance at -160 and “Allen Wins by Decision” at +300. If you think it ends early, “Yussuff wins by R1 KO” at +850 is your best option.
DFS Implications:
Yusuff has been a R1 KO or bust fighter so far in the UFC for DFS. Priced at ($8,500) on DraftKings, it’s hard to see him putting up a usable score without a finish here. Based on the odds, his chances for a finish here are just 22%, with a 10% chance it comes in the first round. Based on his reasonable price tag, clear knockout ability, undefeated UFC record and high scoring totals, look for Yussuf to be a popular DFS play, who’s owned above his chances of actually scoring well. Keeping your exposure under the field is the move here.
Allen has yet to demonstrate a usable DFS ceiling and this looks like an unlikely spot for one to appear. With that said, Allen has the ability to win this fight, but it would most likely come via decision. If Yusuff can force him to throw more volume then he normally does, while adding in a couple of takedowns, it’s possible that Arnold could sneak into semi-usable DFS territory with some help from the fighters priced around him. The odds suggest he has a 19% chance to finish the fight early, with a slim 9% chance to get it done in the first five minutes. While those are both long shots, the more noteworthy number is 43%, which is his chance to win the fight. Just keep in mind that his past decisions have scored 59, 77, 57, 76, and 82 on DraftKings. And even his two finishes scored just 59 and 65 points. He’s a guy that maybe you sprinkle in a little, but the most likely outcome here is that this fight busts and fade’s the play.
Fight #1
Marvin Vettori
10th UFC Fight (6-2-1)Vettori was originally scheduled to face Darren Till, but Till suffered a collarbone injury and Kevin Holland stepped in on short notice after losing a five round decision to Derek Brunson just three weeks prior back on March 20th.
After averaging 4.33 significant strikes landed per minute over his first eight UFC fights, Vettori exploded for 164 significant strikes (6.56/min) in his first UFC five round fight, when he took on Jack Hermansson this past December. That fight amazingly set the record for the most significant strikes landed in a Middleweight fight in UFC history. Coincidentally, Hermansson had originally been scheduled to fight Kevin Holland, who was forced to withdraw when he tested positive for COVID. Vettori was already scheduled to fight a week later, so it wasn’t a big deal to fill in on short notice. Vettori had notably never seen a fourth round in his career prior to that fight, so there were question marks about how his cardio would hold up going in. However, he seemed to do fine and looked like he paced himself some in rounds two and three as to still have energy left later on.
Vettori pushed the pace to start the fight and dropped Hermansson with a stiff left cross in the first round. However, he was unable to put him away as he kept looking for the Guillotine Choke on the ground opposed to simply laying on heavy ground and pound. The second and third rounds were far less eventful, with neither fighter in danger of getting finished at any point, and Hermansson looked like he clearly won the third round. Vettori increased his output in the fourth and fifth rounds as the two fighters traded punches for the final 10 minutes. Vettori interestingly only attempted one takedown in the fight, which he didn’t land, potentially showing respect for Hermansson’s submission game or the fact that he’s now far more comfortable with his own stand up game. He said after the fight that he wanted to make it a boxing match, which is how it played out.
Prior to that match, Vettori took on Karl Roberson, who he was able to submit late in the first round. Vettori had been a decision machine going into the Roberson match with his previous six fights all going to the judges. You have to go all the way back to his 2016 UFC debut, which he won via R1 Guillotine Choke, to find his second most recent fight to end early.
After getting a first round finish in his UFC debut, Vettori went through a tough patch where he went 1-2-1 over his next four fights. He lost a decision to Antonio Carlos Jr., then defeated a struggling Vitor Miranda, followed by a draw against Omari Akhmedov, and then lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya, which clearly Adesanya won 29-28. Vettori showed his lack of awareness following the fight, storming out as soon as the decision was read, so apparently he thought he won, which makes sense as he’s a complete egomaniac. Since the loss to Adesanya, Vettori has won four straight, three by decision.
Vettori started his pro career in 2012 at 170 lb, but moved up to 185 lb in 2016. Despite his physically imposing stature and aggressive fighting style, Vettori has nine career submission wins, but just two wins by KO. His nine submissions have consisted of four Rear-Naked Chokes, three Guillotine Chokes, one Toe Hold and one Triangle Choke. Impressively, he’s never been finished in his 21 pro fights with all four of his career losses ending in decisions.
Kevin Holland
12th UFC Fight (8-3)Coming off the most Kevin Holland fight ever, Kevin Holland Kevin Hollanded his way to a disappointing five round decision loss. The pitchforkers are in full force as they light up their torches and try to drive Holland out of town, but not if Holland has anything to say about it [Spoiler: He does].
In a worst case scenario start to that last fight for Holland, he slipped throwing a kick 30 seconds into the first round and Bruson was able to take full advantage as he jumped on top and started what would be the theme of the night—heavy downward pressure. Holland spent the rest of the round on his back.
He started the second round better, landing a few heavy shots to Brunson that dropped him to a knee and definitely had him wobbled. However, Brunson was able to hang on and get Holland back to the mat moments later, where once again they spent the remainder of the round. Like a broken record, Brunson was able to get Holland back to the mat early in the third round and once again keep him there for the entire round. Holland landed a few shots to start the fourth round, but 90 seconds in he found himself returned to his back, as Brunson clearly had no desire to stand and trade with Holland.
Appearing to catch Brunson off guard in the fifth round, Holland was actually able to turn the tables and be the first person to ever take Brunson down. Emphatically celebrating the moral victory in live time, Holland was even able to finally coerce a smile out of Brunson on that one. However, Holland wasn’t able to do a ton with the takedown as Brunson was simply looking to hang on. Aware that he needed a finish, Holland essentially let Brunson back up to look for a KO shot, but Brunson was able to take Holland down immediately after. At no point in this fight was Brunson looking to trade punches with Holland and he had clearly been carefully planning to execute the wrestling heavy game plan that we saw. The striking numbers were actually similar between the two fighters as Brunson really didn’t do much with his takedowns and was simply looking for position.
Obviously the biggest flaw in Holland’s game is he’s not good at getting up off his back and doesn’t have a great takedown defense. But keep in mind that Brunson is a high level wrestler who had landed 10 takedowns in his previous three fights (one less than Vettori has landed in his entire UFC career). There was some discussion about Holland dropping down a weight class following the fight, as he’s somewhat undersized for the Middleweight division and generally weighs in around 183 lb. However, then this redemption opportunity presented itself.
Prior to the recent loss, Holland had won five in a row in 2020, including four wins by KO. Those came after he was submitted by Brendan Allen back in 2019.
Holland started 2020 off with a 39 second KO of Fluffy Hernandez with an early striking assault that closed the show nearly immediately. Then he was scheduled to take on Daniel Hernandez in May, but was forced to withdraw due to a shoulder injury. That appears to be a recurring injury for Holland, which also popped up during the Alessio Di Chirico fight in June of 2019, where he looked to dislocate it and he made it sound like that wasn’t the first time. Hernandez then took on Gabe Green in what remains one of the biggest DFS mispricings of all time.
Anyways, once Holland was cleared from the shoulder injury, he was scheduled to face Trevin Giles. In another infamous UFC DFS moment, Giles fainted backstage just before the walkout and the fight was canceled. Holland hung around the Apex, however, and was given a new opponent the following week in UFC newcomer Joaquin Buckley. [It really feels like all the big UFC DFS moments of 2020 somehow lead back to Kevin Holland].
After coaching Buckley through the first two rounds of the fight and dropping him with a sharp right hand in the first, Holland finished the much shorter Buckley early in the third round, giving him the motivation to come back and land the knockout of the year in his next match against Impa Kasanganay. Holland showed he can absorb violent strikes with a smile on his face against Buckley and proved that again in his next match.
Following his third round KO of Buckley, Holland took on Darren Stewart, who was the only person to go the distance with Holland in 2020. Stewart made the fight close in the third round, forcing a split decision, and got Holland to the ground three times on eight attempts. Stewart ended the fight on top of Holland for the final 90 seconds, laying heavy ground and pound, and seemingly laying out a blueprint for how Brunson could win this fight. Holland looked tired and at no point was close to getting back up. In post fight interviews Holland even said he thought the fight could have been a draw or even a Stewart victory. While Holland looks extremely durable standing up, he seems more vulnerable on his back at times—although “Jacare” Souza may not agree with that.
Next, Holland stepped into a Halloween fight on short notice after Krzysztof Jotko dropped out of a match against Makhmud Muradov. However, then Muradov also dropped out of the fight just three days before it was scheduled to happen. So in steps Charlie Ontiveros on just three days notice to take on 2-week late replacement Kevin Holland. Ontiveros landed an early axe kick, and Holland was having no part of it. He immediately slammed Ontiveros to the mat and forced the flashy kicker to fight off his back. The fight briefly made it back to the feet, but as Holland slammed Ontiveros a second time, the UFC newcomer said he felt something pop in his neck and the fight was immediately stopped, giving Holland a flukey R1 finish.
In Holland’s 5th fight of 2020 he took on a 41-year-old “Jacare” Souza and got another bizarre R1 finish as he knocked out Souza from his back. Holland was supposed to take on Jack Hermansson in the main event the week before he fought Souza, but Holland tested positive for COVID and was replaced by Marvin Vettori. Holland claims the test was a false positive and he repeatedly tested negative just a few days later, so who knows what exactly was going on. But he got cleared just a week later and notched his fifth win in 2020. Interestingly, three of Holland’s five wins in 2020 came in short notice fights, so both him and his opponents have rarely had time to prepare for one another.
This next fight will be Holland’s second five round fight in the UFC, but the 5th of his career. In his three prior to joining the UFC, he landed a 2018 R3 KO Win, a 2017 R3 KO Win over Geoff Neal—which is the only time Neal has ever been KO'd—and a 2016 R1 KO Win.
Holland is 21-6 as a pro, with 17 of his wins coming early. He has 11 wins by KO, including seven in R1, three in R3 and one in R2. He also has six submission victories, with four in the first round, one in the second and one in the third. His other four wins all came in decisions. While he’s never been knocked out, he has been submitted twice. Most recently by Brendan Allen via Rear-Naked Choke in R2, and prior to that in R1 of a 2015 LFA match in his sixth pro fight. Holland is a BJJ black belt and a second degree black belt in Kung Fu.
Fight Prediction:
Holland will have a 3” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.
Vettori failed to land a takedown in two of his last three fights, and has just 11 total takedowns across his nine fight UFC career, so the idea that he’s 100% going to come in and ragdoll Holland for the duration of this match seems like a flawed premise stemming from recency bias. Yes, Vettori is the better grappler and has the ability to choke Holland out if the fight hits the mat, but he’s also a juiced up jackass who wants to smash his way to the top. It would not be surprising at all to see Vettori be content with a striking battle, at least until things get hairy. With that said, obviously he has coaches that he pays to do the thinking (luckily for him), so it’s hard to say with much certainty how he’ll approach this one. If it does play out on the feet, Holland is definitely live in a striking battle. The whole world appears ready to crucify Kevin Holland for his light hearted antics in his last match, seemingly forgetting that he did the same thing throughout 2020 when he went 5-0 with four KOs. While Vettori will be the bigger fighter and has a clear grappling advantage, he lacks the discipline and intelligence to come into this fight with a Derek Brunson style game plan and he will be more willing to stand and trade with Holland. The line is too wide if you ask us. While we’re not suggesting it’s the most likely outcome, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Kevin Holland come in and shock the world here with a mid round KO win.
All 11 of Vettori’s career finishes have come in the first round as he’s most dangerous before the ram’s semen wears off, so we like his R1 submission line at +900. For Holland, his +260 moneyline is the best option, but we also like his R3 KO line at +3000 if you’re looking for a longer shot, or even his R4 and R5 KO lines at +3600 and +5000 respectively. His decision line at +950 is also sort of interesting. Betting the fight goes the distance at +144 isn’t terrible either.
DFS Implications:
After two slate-breaking performances, Vettori tops the pricing charts on both DFS sites. With so many cheap options on the slate, it’s still easy to fit him in lineups and we still expect him to be the most popular fighter on the slate by a wide margin. All 16 of Vettori’s career wins have ended with either a first round finish or a decision—both of which would score well in a scheduled five round fight. Vettori showed the ability to score well from volume alone in his last match, making him an overall safe option if he gets the win. We don’t expect Holland to control Vettori for extended periods of time, so really the way Vettori completely busts is with a loss—unless Holland Jedi mind fucks him into getting a DQ, which is also possible.
Priced at just $6,600, if Holland wins this fight, he will be in winning DraftKings lineups [end analysis]. The same likely applies on FanDuel, but he is significantly more expensive over there. Holland has been a solid DFS contributor, with his last five finishes all scoring at least 97 DraftKings points and two scores of 131 or more. None of his decision wins have scored amazingly, but those all came in three round fights so they’re far less relevant here. The odds suggest Holland has a 25% chance to win this fight, and if anything that seems low. This looks like a great time to buy low on Holland.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma