The Sheet

Late Scratches: None

Fighter Notes:

Fight #13

Ariane Carnelossi

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

After losing her UFC debut against Angela Hill in September 2019, Carnelossi now hasn’t fought in 19 months. Following that loss, she had been scheduled to take on Mackenzie Dern in April 2020, but the event was canceled due to COVID.

Hill defeated Carnelossi in the third round of her debut via TKO due to a doctor stoppage, after Hill split open Carnelossi’s eyebrow with a sharp elbow. Hill outlanded Carnelossi 92-72 in significant strikes and stuffed her only takedown attempt. Carnelossi interestingly only weighed in at 112 lb for her Strawweight UFC debut, which is a little surprising when you look at how muscular she is up top. It will be interesting to see where she weighs in for this fight. UPDATE: She weighed in at 115 lb for this fight and looked freakishly strong.

Prior to losing her UFC debut, Carnelossi had won 12 fights in a row, ever since losing her 2014 pro debut by R1 Kneebar Submission against Amanda Ribas. Eight of those 12 wins came by KO—including seven in the first two rounds—while one win was by submission and three went to decisions. All three of those decisions came in her last six wins as she began facing somewhat tougher competition. In a 2017 decision, Carnelossi notably defeated Gloria de Paula, who’s a solid striker and recently made her UFC debut. Most of Carnelossi’s wins have come against opponents with little experience, who entered her fights with records of 0-0, 0-2, 0-0, 0-4, 2-4, 5-2, 1-0, 4-7, 7-9, 2-1, 6-3, and 8-1. So only three of her wins came against opponents with more than three fights of experience and a winning record.

Carnelossi looks to primarily be a striker, but will look for takedowns with average success. She doesn’t appear to be much of a submission threat, however, with her lone career submission win coming in by way of 2016 R1 Keylock. She mostly throws big looping hooks and not many jabs, and looks powerful but not super quick. Opposed to peppering her opponents with strikes consistently over the course of her fights, Carnelossi stocks her prey and then releases flurries of strikes in an attempt to overwhelm and finish her opponents.

Na Liang

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making her UFC debut in what will be her 18th pro fight, Liang has only seen the third round once—which came in a 2017 losing decision effort against recent UFC acquisition, Liliya Shakirova. Liang is 13-3 in fights that have ended early. One of those early losses came against recently disgraced UFC fighter, Mariya Agapova, in a 2018 R1 KO. The other two early losses were both by R2 Armbar Submissions, one in 2017 and the other 2018. One of those was notably against an undefeated opponent, who came in 5-0 and is now 11-0, including 6-0 in Bellator. Looking at her 13 wins, four have come by KO and seven have been by submission—she also has two R1 DQ wins. Four of the submissions have been by R1 Armbar—including her last two wins/fights—and the other three were Rear-Naked Chokes earlier in her career. She’s won her last four fights—all in the first round—and only 1 of her 13 career wins has taken longer than five minutes, which was a 2016 R2 Rear-Naked Choke against UFC fighter Liana Jojua.

Liang is a frantic fighter who loves to shoot for immediate takedowns to start every match—typically without even setting them up with any striking. Oftentimes they’re reversed and she ends up on her back, but she has such an active guard that she seems okay with that.

She’s fought the majority of her career at Flyweight (125 lb) and just moved down to Strawweight (115 lb) in 2020 for her last two fights. She actually even started her pro career at Bantamweight (135 lb).

Fight Prediction:

Liang will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, but Carnelossi’s biceps are as thick as Liang’s head.

Thanks to Liang’s kinetic fighting style we shouldn’t have to wait long to see what direction this fight is going to go. Look for Liang to immediately test the takedown defense of Carnelossi, which hasn’t been tested a ton, but has held up in the past. Carnelossi is supremely jacked up top, but it looks like she’s skipped a few leg days, so it will be interesting to see how powerful her base is. She has shown a decent sprawl, and doesn’t look easy to take down, but we’ve yet to see her defend a takedown at the UFC level. Long story short, if Carnelossi can stop Liang from taking this fight to the mat, we think she easily wins it on the feet. However, if Liang can turn this into a grappling match, then she has a good chance of landing an early submission.

We expect this to end in the first two rounds with either a Liang submission or a Carnelossi KO. So naturally our favorite lines are “Liang Wins by R1 Submission” at +1200, “Liang Wins by R2 Submission” at +1700, “Carnelossi Wins by R1 KO” at +500 and “Carnelossi Wins by R2 KO” at +900.

DFS Implications:

Carnelossi definitely has the ability to score well in DFS, but likely needs a finish to return value. She lands a good amount of striking volume—checking in as the third highest average on the slate—but she’s unlikely to want to take this fight to the ground against a submission specialist. So she’ll be reliant on striking and finishes to score well on DraftKings, while she’ll get an added boost from takedowns defended on FanDuel. With that said, she has the second highest chance on the slate to land a finish at 45% and is also tied for the second highest chance to land a R1 win at 19%.

Believe it or not, Na Liang loosely translates to “Not Long” in English. Win or lose, Liang will push the pace, which is exactly what we want for DFS. Her reckless abandonment makes this fight another slate-starter to target heavily, as whoever wins should put up a big score with an early finish. Liang has a 34% chance to win, a 21% chance to finish things early and 9% chance to end this in R1. However, that R1 line seems suspiciously low considering 12 of her 13 pro wins have come in the first round. We don’t see this fight lasting beyond the second round.

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Fight #12

Aori Qileng

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut, Qileng comes in on a six fight winning streak, with four of those ending in the first two rounds, including two in the first five minutes. He comes in 18-6 as a pro, with five KOs, two submissions and 11 decision wins. While he’s never been knocked out, he has been submitted three times to go along with his three decision losses. However, two of those submission losses came in his first four pro fights, back in 2016, and he’s only been finished once in his last 20 matches (R3 Rear-Naked Choke in 2017). One of his three decision losses notably came against UFC fighter Kai Kara France, which looks like the toughest match he’s had to date.

He’s essentially fought his entire career on the Chinese regional scene, with the only exceptions being a pair of 2016 fights in France. Therefore, he hasn’t fought the most experienced competition, as his opponents entered with records of: 1-1, 0-1, 8-2 (L), 4-1 (L), 0-0, 1-2, 1-0, 3-1 (L), 2-1, 2-4, 1-0, 14-7 (L), 5-3 (L), 3-3, 15-17, 4-0, 2-3, 3-3 (L), 3-3, 18-16-2, 10-3, 4-4, 5-3, and 5-1.

He’s spent most of his career fighting between 128-134 lb, but actually made his pro debut all the way up at 160 lb. So it will be interesting to see how he looks down at 125 lb. His last five fights have all been at 135 lb.

Jeff Molina

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

After losing two of his first three pro fights, Jeff “El Jefe” Molina has won seven straight, with six of those coming early. A member of Glory MMA, Molina gets the James Krause bump here in his UFC debut. Molina is 8-2 as a pro, with three KOs and four submission wins. Five of those finishes came in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. The only time he’s ever been finished was in his 2017 pro debut, which he fought up a weight class at 135 lb and was submitted via Rear-Naked Choke 63 seconds in. He’s more dangerous with his legs than his hands, as he throws solid knees and head kicks.

He definitely hasn’t faced the toughest competition, as his opponents entered his fights with records of: 3-0 (L), 0-0, 0-0 (L), 0-0, 0-1, 3-7, 9-17, 2-1, 11-5 and 6-2. So only his last two wins were against opponents with winning records and more than three pro fights.

Molina made his way into the UFC with a decision win on DWCS this past August. Simply getting a contract without landing a finish on the show tells you it was a good fight. After the match ended he could be heard saying that he broke his foot in the first round, although it’s unclear if that was ever verified. Molina was actually outlanded 83-76 in significant strikes, 90-86 in total strikes and 2-0 in takedowns, but definitely appeared to do more damage, and the judges agreed.

Fight Prediction:

Qileng will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 69” reach.

Neither one of these two have faced the toughest competition leading up to what will be the UFC debut for each of them, so it will be interesting to see how they look inside the Octagon. Both guys look decent on tape, but neither blew us away. They both appear to be patient counter strikers, which generally means there’s a good chance this ends in a lower-volume decision assuming neither can land a finish. With that said, both have shown decent finishing ability on their respective regional scenes, but those numbers generally go down, not up, once fighters join the UFC. Qileng is on a six fight winning streak, with finishes in four of those, while Molina is on a seven fight winning streak with six of those ending early. Qileng has so far been more of a KO threat, while Molina is more likely to win by submission. We could see Molina submitting Qileng, but think it more likely ends in a close coin flip decision.

There does appear to be solid value in Molina’s submission lines and Qileng’s KO lines. We like “Molina Wins by Submission” at +600, “Molina Wins by R1 Submission” at +1400, “Molina Wins by R2 Submission” at +2100, “Qileng Wins by KO” at +750 and “Qileng Wins by R2 KO” at +2400.

DFS Implications:

Qileng comes in a six fight winning streak with four finishes, and appears to be more of a threat to end fights on the feet than on the mat. However, 11 of his 18 career wins have come by decision, so it’s not like he’s some prolific knockout artist. He has just five KO wins in 24 pro fights. He’s never been knocked out himself, but has been submitted three times. As a patient counter striker, he generally doesn’t land a ton of volume but does mix in a few takedowns. Still, it looks like he’ll need a finish to return value in DFS. Interestingly, these two fighters have identical odds both to win and land a finish/R1 finish. So this is legitimately a coin flip and each guy has a 17% to land a finish and a 7% chance to do it in R1. It’s notably the most likely fight on the slate to go the distance with a 65% likelihood of that happening.

Molina is also a patient striker, which doesn’t generally translate to huge striking totals, but he has won his last seven fights, and landed finishes in six of those. He’ll likely need another finish here to end up in winning DFS lineups. Despite Molina’s recent DWCS fight being a fun one to watch, it would have scored just 67 DraftKings points and 66 points on FanDuel, which appears to indicate he’ll need a finish here to return value. The odds indicate that he has a 50% chance to win the fight, but just a 17% chance to land a finish and a 7% likelihood of ending it in R1.

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Fight #11

Rong Zhu

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut on a 10 fight winning streak, Zhu comes in 17-3 as a pro, with 15 of his 17 wins coming early. He has 11 wins by KO and four by submission, with nine first round finishes, including three of his last four fights. All three of his career losses have notably come by first round submission. Despite fighting at 140 lb early in his career, Zhu doesn’t look to be undersized for the 155 lb weight class. Amazingly, Rhu went pro less than three weeks after his 16th birthday (assuming the numbers are to be believed), which actually explains why he literally grew into the 155 lb division. He’s still just 21 years old, despite having more pro fights than Kamaru Usman.

It’s hard to say how Zhu’s finishing ability will translate to the UFC, as many of his wins have come against very inexperienced opponents. Here are the records of his opponents coming into his fights: 0-0, 1-1, 1-1, 2-7, 1-1 (L), 9-4 (L), 6-1, 1-1, 3-2-1, 13-10 (L), 7-2, 2-1, 3-0, 19-4, 0-1, 18-5, 10-9, 0-4, 17-5, and 9-7. Why he would be fighting an 0-4 fighter just three fights before joining the UFC is sort of a mystery and things like that have to make you wonder. He looked decent on tape, but not like he’s a world beater or anything, so it’s interesting to see him come in with the highest finishing chances on the slate as he goes up against an opponent who’s never been knocked out and at least has some UFC experience—even if it did come in losses.

Kazula Vargas

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

After getting disqualified for landing a blatantly illegal knee to the head of a seated Brok Weaver in his most recent UFC fight, Varags is now 0-2 with the organization and still looking for his first win. Prior to the momentary lapse of sanity, Vargas had been controlling Weaver on the ground and was dominating in total striking 50-6 and 15-5 in significant striking.

Prior to that mayhem, Vargas’ 2019 UFC debut was a disappointing one, as he was controlled by Alex Da Silva for 12 minutes of action on his way to a smothering, low-volume decision defeat. Vargas actually came out ahead 20-17 in significant strikes, but Da Silva led 88-59 in total strikes and dominated in control time.

Impressively, 10 of Vargas’ 11 career wins have come early, including seven in R1, with seven KOs and three submissions. He came into the UFC with an 11-2 record, with one 2013 R1 submission loss and one decision loss. He’s an aggressive fighter who’s generally looking to force the action.

Vargas notably started his pro career at 170 lb, but has stayed at 155 lb since 2017. He had been scheduled to fight Alan Patrick on 9/12/20 but withdrew due to injury and now hasn’t fought in 14 months.

Fight Prediction:

Rong will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is notably 14 years younger than the 35-year-old Vargas.

Zhu looks most vulnerable to being submitted, but the only two submissions Vargas has landed since his 2011 Armbar win have been a pair of Guillotine Chokes in 2015 and 2016 and he doesn’t appear to be much of a grappler. This is more likely to play out as a striking match and neither fighter has ever been knocked out. You would have to think that at 35 years old and 0-2 in the UFC, Vargas will come in with maximum motivation to get a win here, at least if he wants to have any shot at staying in the UFC. And at just 21 years old, it’s entirely possible the stage is too big for Rong, who’s fighting outside of China for the first time in his career. We don’t have a super strong take on who wins, but it feels a little closer than the odds suggest, and think Vargas definitely has a shot.

“Vargas ITD” at +500 and Vargas’ moneyline at +220 seem like the value plays, but we’re not in love with either.

DFS Implications:

Zhu’s 88% finishing rate and 10 fight winning streak certainly present a high theoretical scoring ceiling, but we have no clue how that will translate to the UFC. He could look great or he could look terrible. His $9,100/$21 price tags are somewhat cost prohibitive, so we don’t expect his ownership to get out of control, and he does have a slate-leading 46% chance to land a finish according to the odds. That should automatically put him in consideration as a tournament play, but the uncertainty surrounding him makes it tough to feel good about playing him over a five round favorite in low-risk contests. His R1 finishing chances also lead the slate at 21%, so you’ll definitely want some amount of exposure to him. We don’t see him putting up a big score in a decision, so he will need the finish to pay off and Vargas has notably never been knocked out and only submitted once—which was all the way back in 2013. While the odds indicate that this is the third most likely fight to end early, it wouldn’t be shocking to see it bust.

Vargas’ UFC career has failed to really launch yet, and he’s quickly approaching the end of the runway. This looks like a do or die spot for him after he was smothered in his debut and then disqualified for an illegal knee in his last fight, which he was in total control of up until that point. The desperate UFC fighter looking to keep his job taking on a 21-year-old kid making his UFC debut narrative is in full swing here, which makes Vargas somewhat interesting on a slate lacking many quality underdogs. WIth a 91% finishing rate in his 11 pro wins there are several reasons for optimism with his ceiling if he can pull off the upset. While the odds imply he only has a 32% chance to win, they also indicate he has an 18% chance to land a finish with a 7% chance it comes in R1. You’ll want to have some exposure here.

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Fight #10

Danaa Batgerel

3th UFC Fight (1-1)

Coming off his first UFC win in two attempts, Batgerel landed an impressive first round KO, demonstrating just how dangerous of a striker he is. His last five wins have now all come in the first two rounds, with the last three ending in R1. He lost his 2019 UFC debut in a decision, despite outlanding his opponent 85-36 in significant strikes and 119-63 in total strikes. He was taken down three times on seven attempts and controlled for nearly three minutes.

He notably has a decision win over UFC fighter Kai Kara France on his pre-UFC record, and he’s never been finished in his 10 pro fights, with both of his losses going the distance. Four of his eight wins have come by KO and two have ended with submissions. Four of those six finishes came in the first round. He primarily looks like a striker and doesn’t seem to have much interest in grappling. Batgerel throws a solid amount of volume, checking in with the four highest average of significant strikes landed on the slate.

Kevin Natividad

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back after getting knocked out in the third round of his October 2020 UFC debut by Miles Johns, Natividad had previously been on a five fight winning streak coming into the UFC. Three of those five wins had come by KO, as have five of his nine career victories, including two in the first round. He also has one submission win, which came in the first round of his 2016 pro debut. Two of his three first round finishes notably came against opponents who had never fought professionally before. Both of his career losses have ended in knockouts—a nine second R1 KO in 2017 and then the recent R3 KO in his debut. Natividad is known for getting his lead leg attacked due to his wide stance.

Before he tested positive for COVID back in September, Natividad had been scheduled to make his UFC debut as a late replacement on September 5th against Brian Kelleher. He was forced to wait a month before getting a second chance. In his October 2020 debut, Natividad was outlanded 48-33 in significant strikes, but did a good job of stuffing all seven of Johns’ takedown attempts. Meanwhile, Natividad went 0 for 1 on his only attempt. Knowing he was behind in the fight, Natividad was pushing harder in the third round as he looked for a finish, but as is often the case, that resulted in him getting finished instead.

Fight Prediction:

Batgerel will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 70” reach.

This sets up as a pure stand up striking battle that should be a fun one to watch. However, Batgerel looks like the superior striker and we like his chances to land another knockout. All six of his career finishes have come in the first two rounds, with four occurring in R1. Look for that trend to likely continue here as Batgerel ends this fight with a KO in the first 10 minutes.

We like “Batgerel Wins by KO” at +280, “Batgerel Wins by R1 KO” at +700, “Batgerel Wins by R2 KO” at +1000. He does have two submission wins on his record, so you can consider going with the round win lines opposed to specifically KO, but we think the finish is far more likely to come by KO.

DFS Implications:

Batgerel looks like a solid DFS play with a good chance to land an early KO. He’s gotten a finish in 75% of his wins and now gets an opponent who’s been knocked out in both of his career losses. However, Batgerel lacks the grappling to prop up his score if he fails to get the finish, so we don’t see him scoring well in a decision. With that in mind, the odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 27% chance it comes early and an 11% chance it comes in R1. He looks like a good play on both sites and is reasonably priced on each.

Natividad should go pretty low-owned after getting knocked out in his UFC debut, and does have a 67% finishing rate in his wins. While we don’t expect Natividad to win this fight and Batgerel has never been finished, if Natividad gets a finish here he’ll almost certainly end up in the optimal lineup. Just like Batgerel, he lacks the grappling to put up a big score in a decision, and even at his reduced price we think he needs to end this early to be useful. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 16% chance to get the finish and a 7% chance to end it in R1.

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Fight #9

Patrick Sabatini

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Sabatini had been scheduled to make his UFC debut back in February, but his opponent missed weight by the equivalent of a small child and the fight was canceled.

A submission specialist, BJJ black belt, and former D1 wrestler, 11 of Sabatini’s 13 wins have come early, with nine submissions and two KOs. Six of those submissions have been by Rear-Naked Choke, along with a pair of Heel Hooks and an Armbar. The only time he's ever been finished himself came in a 2020 TKO due to a gnarley dislocated elbow He’s also lost two decisions and now holds a 13-3 pro record coming into his UFC debut.

In his last fight, Sabatini got his opponent to the mat early and spent nearly the entire first round hunting for submissions in control on the ground. Ten seconds into the second round he had his opponent right back down on the mat. Sabatini submitted him soon after with an Armbar.

In his fight prior to that, Sabatini was returning from the dislocated elbow suffered in a February 2020 match. Sabatini looked no worse for the wear and finished his opponent on the feet this time, showing that he also has some striking ability. Sabatini also notably submitted current UFC fighter Tony Gravely back in 2015 in the first round with a Rear-Naked Choke.

Tristan Connelly

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

After making his short notice 2019 UFC debut at 170 lb, Connelly now hasn’t fought in 19 months after having an April 2020 fight/event canceled due to COVID and then having intensive neck surgery to resolve an ongoing injury that had been getting dramatically worse. He’ll now be dropping all the way down to 145 lb. The change isn’t quite as drastic as it may sound, as he fought anywhere from 145 lb to 185 lb earlier in his career, but the majority of his fights have been at 155 lb and he’s said he has no intention of fighting at 170 lb again.

Breaking down his 14-6 pro record, he’s 1-0 at 185 lb, 1-0 at 170 lb, 1-0 at 160 lb, 10-3 at 155 lb, 1-0 at 150 lb and 0-3 at 145 lb. So it’s interesting to see him drop down to 145 lb where he’s 0-3, opposed to moving back to 155 lb where he’s 10-3 and has fought 13 of his 20 pro fights. He said in a January interview that he used to walk around at around 185 lb, but has recently improved his diet and that’s down to 175 lb. He sounded like he was expecting to fight at 155 lb, so maybe the 145 lb cut was purely based on the opportunity that was available. It’s definitely worth paying extra attention to him at weigh-ins as this could be a tough weight cut. UPDATED: Both guys in this fight looked absolutely shredded at weigh-ins.

Connelly was clearly undersized in his debut, although he was also going against a massive Welterweight in Michel Pereira. Adding to the size discrepancy, Connelly came in slightly underweight, while Pereira checked in a pound over the limit. Despite the size difference, Connelly was able to outland Pereira 151-56 in total strikes and 64-32 in significant strikes in a grind it out sort of decision.

He started off his career with a mediocre 5-5 record, but said he really committed to MMA at that point, and has since impressively won 9 of his last 10 fights. Even more impressive, 8 of those 9 wins have come early. In fact, of his 14 career wins, only one has ended in a decision. He has four wins by KO and nine by submission. On the other side of things, he’s only been finished in two of his six career losses—once in a 2017 R3 submission and then earlier in his career by a 2011 R1 KO.

Fight Prediction:

Connelly will have a 2” height advantage, but Sabatini will have a 2” reach advantage.

This is an interesting matchup between a technical wrestler in Sabatini going against a scrappy fighter like Connelly—who demonstrated his toughness when he moved all the way up to 170 lb and defeated Michel Pereira in a decision in his short notice UFC debut. However, coming off a 19 month layoff and intensive neck surgery, there are reasons for concern. Sabatini is a serious submission threat, but Connelly is a tough guy to finish. This feels like it has the makings to end in a hard fought decision, as they’ve combined for just two early losses in the last decade, but both guys have proven themselves to be legit finishers with 93% of Connelly’s wins coming early and 85% of Sabatini’s. We expect this to end with either a Sabatini submission win or a close coin flip decision.

Sabatini’s last four submission wins came in the second round, so it’s worth considering “Sabatini Wins by R2 Submission” at +1200. You can also look at his anytime submission line at +340. “Connelly Wins by Decision” at +380 also appears to present some value.

DFS Implications:

Sabatini’s grappling heavy fighting style benefits greatly from the new DraftKings scoring system, so he’ll likely be a better play over there. The only time he’s ever been finished early in his career came on a freak injury where he dislocated his elbow early in the fight, so he also appears to have a reasonable floor, but we’ve yet to really gauge how well he can score in a decision. Priced up at $8,800/$19 it’s hard to see him fully returning value without a finish, and this doesn’t look like a great spot to get one. With that said, the odds indicate that he has a 69% chance to win, a 26% chance to get it done early and a 10% chance it comes in R1.

When you watch Connelly fight, he comes across as more of a grinder than a fine tuned finisher, but his history of early wins indicates that he may have some sneaky upside. Priced at just $7,400/$10, it’s also not impossible for him to be useful in a decision win, but it likely requires the other dogs priced around him to all fail—which is certainly possible. We don’t really see him getting a finish here, so that’s likely what he’ll need to succeed. The odds imply he has a 31% chance to win, 12% chance to land a finish and 6% chance to win in R1.

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Fight #8

Brendan Allen

5th UFC Fight (3-1)

Coming off his first loss in his last 8 fights and the only knockout of his career, Allen completely abandoned the wrestling that got him to the UFC and foolishly competed in a dick measuring contest...sorry, striking battle with Sean Strickland. The second round KO loss appears to have regrounded Allen as he’s discussed fighting “smarter” (i.e. wrestling) moving forward.

While Allen only has one loss in the UFC, all four of his pro losses have come against current UFC fighters. Prior to his recent KO loss to Sean Strickland, the only person to ever finish Allen was Trevin Giles, who submitted him in 2016 with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke in Allen’s third pro fight, when he was just 20 years old. His second career loss came in a 2017 LFA five round decision against Eryk Anders and his third career loss similarly was in a 2018 LFA five round decision against Anthony Hernandez. Following that loss Allen won seven straight fights, with three submissions, two R1 KOs and a pair of decisions—including one more five rounder in the LFA just before going on DWCS.

Allen then earned his spot in the UFC with a 2019 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win on DWCS. He impressively won his 2019 UFC debut, submitting Kevin Holland in R2. It took Allen all of 20 seconds to take Holland down for the first time in that fight—and he was taking Holland down before it was the fashionable thing to do.

He followed that up with R1 KO against Tom Breese, before getting taken to a decision by newcomer Kyle Daukaus in a gritty fight between two guys with very similar fighting styles. Maybe that hard fought grappling decision had something to do with why Allen came into his next fight with a 100% striking game plan, but that clearly was a mistake as Sean Strickland knocked him out early in the second round.

A BJJ black belt, only two of Allen’s 15 career wins have required the judges. He has five wins by KO and eight submission victories—six by Rear-Naked Choke, one Triangle Choke and one Keylock Submission. Eight of those finishes came in R1, four in R2 and just one in R3.

Apparently the loss to Giles stuck with Allen, as after his win over Breese he called out Giles in the post fight interview and asked the UFC to make it happen. Instead the UFC scheduled him to fight Ian Heinisch on June 27th, however Heinisch withdrew from the fight due to injury and Daukaus stepped in.

Allen is a decent striker, but that clearly gets him in trouble at times as he knows just enough to be dangerous (to himself). He’d be wise to get back to his wrestling roots against a one-dimensional kickboxer in Karl Roberson.

Karl Roberson

8th UFC Fight (4-3)

Coming off a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss to Marvin Vettori, Roberson has yet to lose two fights in a row in his 12 fight pro career—but at the same time, all three of his career losses have come in his last six fights. Prior to his recent loss, Roberson had won two in a row in 2019, with a R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission and a split decision victory. Eight of his 12 pro fights have ended in the first round, with him winning five of those. However, all three of his career losses have come in the UFC via R1 submission and he looks very vulnerable on the mat. In fairness to Roberson, the losses all came against really tough opponents in Cezar Ferreira, Glover Teixeira and Marvin Vettori.

Both of his early wins in the UFC have also interestingly come by submission, each by Rear-Naked Choke, while his other two UFC wins went the distance in volume decisions. It seems more like those were submissions of opportunity for what it’s worth. Roberson notably knocked out Ryan Spann in a 2017 205 lb fight on DWCS just 15 seconds into the first round. The finish came by a series of short elbows as Spann looked for a takedown (flashbacks to the Johnny Walker fight), in what some might consider a quick stoppage. His only other career KO win also came in R1 back in 2017, in Roberson’s third pro fight.

Roberson appears to be a fighter stuck between two weight classes. He’s fought at both 205 lb and 185 lb throughout his career, with most of his fights taking place at 185 lb. However, after landing a R1 Armbar submission win in 2017, he stayed at 205 lb when he went on DWCS and knocked out Ryan Spann in just 15 seconds. Then he dropped back down to 185 lb for his UFC debut, where he’s stayed for six of his seven UFC fights—with the one exception being a 2019 match against Glover Teixeira where Roberson was submitted in the first round [This was a bad idea]. Roberson notably missed weight by 4.5 lb in his recent 185 lb against Marvin Vettori, so it will be important to monitor him at weigh-ins. UPDATE: Roberson had no issues making weight, coming in at 185 lb and looked jacked.

Fight Prediction:

Allen will have a 1” height and reach advantage.

After failing to even attempt a takedown in his recent failure, it would be shocking if Allen didn’t get back to his wrestling in this one. It’s also no secret that he has a massive advantage on the ground against the kickboxer in Roberson, so you’d have to think Roberson’s gameplan will be to avoid getting taken down at all costs. That could theoretically leave him open to getting caught with a clean shot on the feet, but we still think Allen will be selling out for the takedown coming off a KO loss. With all three of Roberson’s career losses coming by R1 submission, it’s hard not to look at that as a very likely outcome, but there’s also a decent chance Allen will need to wear on Roberson some before his neck really opens up. Either way, we like Allen to get a submission win here.

Our favorite lines here are “Allen Win by Submission” at +195 and “Allen Win by R1 Submission” at +500. His R2 submission line at +750 and R3 submission line at +1200 are also in play as longer shots.

DFS Implications:

Allen has consistently scored well-but-unspectacular in his three UFC wins, with DraftKings scores of 102, 109 and 94. It doesn’t appear that he’s actually hit his ceiling yet, so a bigger score will eventually come, and it could be right around the corner. Even in his one UFC decision win, he still scored 94 points, which is promising for his DFS floor. Priced at $8,400/$15, he doesn’t need an explosion to return value, and a grappling heavy decision could still be in play. With that said, there’s a really good chance he wins this one with a submission and the odds agree. He has a 59% chance to win the fight, a 42% chance to finish it early and a 16% chance to win in R1. Allen is one of our favorite mid-priced fighters on the slate.

Roberson scored 105 DraftKings points in his 2017 UFC debut when he submitted Darren Stewart in R1, but has failed to score above 81 points since. He’s a low volume striker with good footwork, who generally avoids taking unnecessary damage. Roberson likely needs a R1 finish to score well in DFS. Because he’s coming off a loss and hasn’t scored well in his last six fights, the field should be pretty low on Roberson, which does keep him in play for tournaments as a low owned option. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 26% chance for a finish and a 10% chance to get it done in R1. He’s yet to show that he can score well in a decision on DraftKings, but he makes a little more sense on FanDuel where he’s relatively cheaper and can score from takedowns defended.

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Fight #7

Dwight Grant

5th UFC Fight (2-2)

Coming off a chaotic R1 KO loss to Daniel Rodriguez, Grant is now 2-2 in the UFC with two of those fights going the distance and the other two ending in R1 KOs. With a 10-3 pro record, all of Grant's fights have ended in either knockouts or decisions. Prior to his recent loss, all seven of the knockouts belonged to him, while he was 3-2 with the judges.

Grant got his shot in the UFC with a R2 KO on DWCS in June 2018. He then made his debut six months later against Zak Ottow, who entered the match 3-3 in the UFC and defeated Grant in a close, very low-volume split decision. Grant bounced back with a last second R1 KO of Carlo Pedersoli Jr., who finished his UFC career 1-2 with a pair of R1 KO losses. Grant then fought to another close, low-volume split decision, in a fight against Alan Jouban, but this time it went his way. Following the April 2019 decision win, we didn’t see Grant book another fight until August 2020, following a 16 month layoff. He was then originally scheduled to face Jared Gooden, but Gooden dropped out and Calen Born briefly stepped in. However, then Born also dropped out and Grant unluckily ended up being paired against Rodriguez, who had also lost an opponent the day before.

Fighting on just a day’s notice with essentially no time to prepare a new game plan, both guys came out ready to brawl. Grant dropped D-Rod just 40 seconds into the scrap, but Rodriguez was narrowly able to survive the barrage of ground and pound, with the help of a long leash from the ref. Rodriguez was able to get up and amazingly drop Grant three times in the next minute before the ref finally stopped the fight. In a dust up that lasted less than half of the first round, we ridiculously saw four knockdowns.

Outside of the D-Rod brawl, Grant has been a painfully patient counter striker who throws his left jab out like he’s holding a hot cup of coffee. In an overused but true statement, Grant throws strikes from odd angles, which makes it tougher for opponents to defend.

Stefan Sekulic

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Sekulic made his UFC debut in September 2018, but after losing a decision to Ramazan Emeev he now hasn’t fought in 31 months following a massive 2-year suspension for using “multiple banned substances.” He claimed he was trying to recover from surgery six months before his debut and inadvertently used the banned substances as part of his recovery process.

In Sekulic’s 2018 debut, Emeev nearly finished the fight at the end of the first round, but ran out of time. Instead, the fight played out to a low-volume decision where Sekulic looked for takedowns whenever he got in trouble, but only landed one on five attempts. Emeev easily won a unanimous decision, with judges scores ranging from 28-29 to 26-30. Maybe it was just Octagon jitters, but Sekulic looked very tentative in the fight and did nothing to impress us.

Prior to joining the UFC, Sekulic was 12-2 as a pro with 11 of his fights ending early. He had three wins by KO, six by submission, and three decisions. His last four submission wins all came via Guillotine Choke, including his most recent two wins just before joining the UFC. Both of his pre-UFC losses ended in TKOs, but one of those was due to a leg injury he suffered. The other came against current UFC fighter, David Zawada, in the second round of a 2015 fight. Sekulic fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb earlier in his career.

Fighting his entire pre-UFC career on the Serbian regional scene, it’s fair to question the level of competition he faced. His opponents entered with records of: 3-2, 0-0, 11-3-1, 3-6, 10-2 (L), 10-6, 1-0, 3-0, 0-1, 15-9, 3-1, 12-3 (L), 32-31, and 6-3. Outside of David Zawaba, who knocked him out in R2, it doesn’t seem like he faced anyone that good.

Sekulic appears to be a low-volume counter striker who generally relies on his opponents walking into a clean punch or falling into a Guillotine Choke. He shoots for a decent number of takedowns, but doesn’t appear to have great technique and doesn’t land very many. Now coming off the longest layoff of his career, it’s hard to see him starting fast here.

Fight Prediction:

Grant will have a 1” height and reach advantage.

Sekulic looks to be more or less a Guillotine or bust fighter and Grant has only shot for one takedown in the UFC, which he landed back in his debut. So it’s hard to see Grant presenting Sekulic with many, if any, options to attack his neck. Both fighters have looked tentative at times, and when Grant did recently open up his striking, he got knocked out pretty quickly. Therefore it wouldn’t be that surprising to see a low-volume disappointing decision here. With that said, we like Grant’s chances to land a KO, as we weren’t overly impressed with anything that we saw out of Sekulic.

The lines we’re considering here are “Grant WIns by KO” at +110 and “Grant Wins by R1 KO” at +270. You can also look at “Grant Wins by R3 KO” at +900 and “Grant Wins by Decision” at +330.

DFS Implications:

Grant is a low floor, average ceiling DFS play, but he has a good chance to land a KO in this fight, at relatively low ownership. His low striking volume is certainly of concern if this fight makes it past the first round, as he only landed 25 and 38 significant strikes respectively in his two UFC decisions. At $9,200/$20, he appears to be a R1 or bust fighter, but we like him a little more on FanDuel due to his potential to score from takedowns defended. The odds suggest he has a 66% chance to win the fight, a 44% chance to end it early, and a 19% chance for a R1 finish.

Sekulic put up a womping 20 DraftKings in his only UFC fight, but maybe he used his extended time off to improve some of his skills. He’s still just 29 years old for what it’s worth. Nothing we’ve seen from him has impressed us and this doesn’t look like a good matchup for him stylistically. In a matchup between two counter punchers, this could easily turn into a staring contest. Sekulic’s ideal matchup would involve a sloppy grappler who leaves their neck open on takedowns, which Grant not. He’s has only attempted one takedown in four UFC fights, and none in his last three. The only person to ever finish Grant was Daniel Rodriguez, who simply overwhelmed him with strikes. We don’t see Sekulic replicating that here. He looks like an easy fade, but for what it’s worth the odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1. Those chances all seem high to us.

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Fight #6

Randy Brown

11th UFC Fight (6-4)

This fight was originally scheduled for 2/27 but Brown withdrew and then his replacement also dropped out, leaving Oliveira forced to wait.

While seven of Brown’s 10 UFC fights have ended early (4-3), none of those ended in the first round. He won his 2016 debut via decision, but was then submitted in the second round of his next UFC fight. He bounced back with a submission win of his own in the third round, before following it up with a second round KO victory. He then lost a decision to Belal Muhammad, before winning a decision over Mickey Gall. Next, Niko Price knocked him out in round two, but Brown rebounded with a R3 KO over Warlley Alves. Most recently Brown was knocked out in the second round by Vicente Luque.

So looking at his entire UFC career with some context, Brown was submitted by a previously undefeated fighter who had just beaten Vicente Luque, and he bounced back with a R3 submission of his own. Then he lost a decision to a really tough decision grinder in Belal Muhammad, and Brown responded with a decision win of his own. Then Brown got knocked out in the second round by a tough brawler in Niko Price, and Brown rebounded with a R3 KO of his own. Most recently Brown was knocked out again in R2, by an even tougher brawler in Vicente Luque, so if this strange trend continues, we should expect a Brown R3 KO win on Saturday.

In his last fight, Luque did a great job of attacking the stilts of Brown early on in the fight. Because Brown is so tall, he looks especially vulnerable to leg strikes as he has a wider stance and skinny twig legs. Luque eventually finished the compromised Brown at the end of the second round.

Alex Oliveira

20th UFC Fight (11-7, NC)

Before having his last scheduled fight scrapped, Oliveira curiously accepted an October match against UFC newcomer Shavkat Rakhmonov on short notice and proceeded to miss weight by 2 lb and then get submitted in the first round. Chalk that up to a series of bad decisions. Weight hasn’t been an issue for him much in the past, but it’s something to keep an eye on. UPDATE: Alex Oliveira had no issues making weight.

Prior to the recent R1 submission loss, Oliveira had fought to four straight low volume decisions, winning the most recent two. However, now he’s lost four of his last six fights and really needs a win here to avoid pulling a Weidman.

Oliveira generally uses his long reach and leg strikes to keep his opponents at bay. He’s only landed above 50 significant strikes in a fight twice in his career—once in 2016 and again in 2017. His opponents have also only landed above 50 significant strikes in a fight against him twice—once in the same 2017 match and then again in 2019. No one has ever landed above 75 significant strikes on him and 15 of his 19 opponents have landed less than 30. In his six decisions, the strike counts for Oliveira/Opponent were 45-29, 40-23, 18-31, 48-65, 58-12, 11-23. This lack of volume makes it hard for anyone to score well in his fights barring a R1 or possibly late R2 finish.

Only 5 of his 19 UFC fights have ended in the first round and one of those was ruled a “No Contest” for an illegal knee. The other four were a 2015 submission win, a 2016 submission loss, a 2018 KO win, and then his recent R1 submission loss. His only R1 win in his last 16 fights came in the 2018 KO against Carlo Pedersoli Jr., who went 1-2 in the UFC before getting dropped and has now lost his last three fights beginning with the Oliveira KO.

Oliveira’s only been knocked out once in his career, which came in the third round against Yancy Medeiros of their 2017 fight. However, he’s been submitted five times and seems more vulnerable to being finished on the mat. Also keep in mind, four of Oliveira’s last five fights have ended in decisions.

Fight Prediction:

Brown will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

This sets up as a low-volume match between two rangey fighters. Both guys are capable of finishing opponents either on the feet or the mat, but all 10 of Brown’s UFC fights have made it out of the first round, as have eight of Oliveira’s last 10. We expect this fight to end with either a second half finish or in a disappointing decision. We like Brown’s chances to land a late submission, but it’s still more likely this ends in a decision.

There’s a decent chance for this fight to end in R2 or R3, but a variety of ways it could happen. Our favorite bet is “Brown Wins by R3 Submission” at +2500. His R2 submission line at +2000 is also in play. We also like Brown’s R2 Win line at +850 and his R3 Win line at +1000. The safer options are betting the fight ends in R2 at +460 or in R3 at +600, regardless of who wins. “Oliveira Wins by Decision” at +320 is the one other line worth considering.

DFS Implications:

Despite landing finishes in four of his six UFC wins, Brown has only topped 96 DraftKings points once, which came when he scored 110 in a 2016 R2 KO where he was able to fill up the score sheet against a struggling Brian Camozzi who went 0-3 in the UFC, with all three losses ending early. Brown’s other five UFC wins have scored 90, 96, 71, 60 and 63 DraftKings points. He looks like a better play on FanDuel, where he’s relatively cheaper and can score from takedowns defended. Oliveira notably averages the fifth most missed takedown attempts on the slate. The odds indicate that Brown has a 58% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish and an 11% chance to end it in R1.

Oliveira has been sort of similar to Brown in terms of DFS production, with just one score above 98 DraftKings points in his last 10 fights, despite having three finishes over that time and two decision wins. His one big score came in a 119 point DraftKings performance via 2018 R1 KO against Carlo Pedersoli Jr., who notably struggled in the UFC, going 1-2 before getting released in 2019 following back-to-back R1 KO losses. In his other four most recent wins, Oliveira has scored 59, 62, 98 and 83 DK points. It’s now been almost three years since his last early win, and he looks to be on the tailend of his career. Even at $7,500/$12, he looks to be no more than a dart throw on this slate, and would still need a finish to return value based on his low-volume fighting style. While the odds suggest he has a 42% chance to win the fight, his chances for a finish are 20%, with only a 9% likelihood it comes in R1.

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Fight #5

Jimmy Crute

6th UFC Fight (4-1)

If your kids ever ask you where monsters come from, you tell them it’s Australia. Jimmy “The Brute” Crute is a bad man. Rumbling into this fight with an impressive 12-1 pro record, Crute is 4-1 in the UFC with his last four fights ending in the first round. Prior to those four, he submitted submission specialist Paul Craig in the third round of his 2018 debut.

Nine of Crute’s 12 pro wins have come early, including eight in R1. The BJJ blackbelt impressively has two Kimura wins in the UFC, to go along with a pair of R1 KOs.

Krute is coming off back-to-back near flawless R1 wins. In the first of the two he landed EIGHT takedowns in just three and a half minutes of action, before submitting Michal Oleksiejczuk with a Kimura. Crute followed that up with a R1 KO Modestas Bukauskas, where he landed two knockdowns in a fight that lasted just 121 seconds.

Prior to the pair of first round finishes, Crute suffered his only career loss, which resulted from a crazy R1 Peruvian Necktie against submission specialist Misha Cirkunov. Crute looked like he was on his way to landing another R1 victory in the loss, before getting swept and caught in a very awkward position. Honestly that seemed pretty flukey, but Cirkunov is as dangerous as they get on the mat.

Leading up to the loss, Crute made short work of Sam Alvey in his second UFC fight, landing a R1 KO in under three minutes of action—one of the few times Alvey has been finished in his lengthy career. The finish would have come sooner but Crute pulled an O’Malley and prematurely walked away from a dazed Alvey following a knockdown—before the ref actually stopped the fight. After a rare mistake for Crute, he did finish Alvey just moments later.

Crute punched his way to the UFC with a R1 KO on the Contender Series back in 2018. He landed an exhausting 65 significant strikes in less than four and a half minutes in that fight—a blistering 14.8 SS/min pace. That win would have been good for 116 points on DraftKings and 139 points on FanDuel.

Demonstrating a well-rounded overall game, Crute is dangerous anywhere the fight goes and has five career KO wins and four by submission. Two of his three decision wins notably went five rounds prior to joining the UFC, but generally that just means he was fighting top level competition.

Anthony Smith

15th UFC Fight (9-6)

Anthony Smith reminds us of a police dog training dummy that they use when it would be unfair to force an actual human to accept such punishment. And now that he’s coming off a win, we don’t feel nearly as bad making fun of him.

2020 started off rough for Anthony Smith. It began with him fighting off a home invader in the middle of the night. Despite being a professional fighter, Smith described the encounter with the intruder as, “He's a regular Joe and I had a hard time dealing with him. And he took everything that I gave him–every punch, every knee, every elbow. He took every single one of them and kept fighting me.”

Following what we’re ruling as a draw with the home invader, Smith went on to get his teeth knocked out in a soul crushing defeat against a bigger, stronger, older Glover Teixeira. The grueling beating did not appear to be something that one could easily shake off and most likely shaved a few years off Smith’s life.

Nevertheless, while we all cringed, Smith opted to get back on the horse just three months later against another dangerous opponent in Aleksandar Rakic, and was clearly outmatched again. What started with a barrage of violent leg kicks, quickly turned into a smothering ground performance. Despite being the main event, that fight was only three rounds—thankfully for Smith’s sake. Rakic cruised to a decision, but likely could have gotten the finish if he had been more determined to do so (or had any sort of clue).

Following the pair of grueling losses, Smith took on a less intimidating opponent in wrestler Devin Clark and showed why he had previously been facing monsters in the first place, as he submitted Clark with a Triangle Choke midway through the first round.

With 13 submission wins on his record and five Triangle Chokes off his back, Smith showed he can still be dangerous at times. Ignoring his recent struggles—which is really, really, REALLY hard to do—Smith’s last eight wins all came early. Prior to his recent R1 submission win, he submitted an aging Alexander Gustafsson (who retired afterwards) in R4 of their 2019 main event and also previously submitted Volkan Oezdemir in R3 of their 2018 five round fight. Prior to those three submissions, his five previous wins all came by KO, including two in R1.

Smith’s last four losses have all come against big names in Thiago Santos, Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic. Devin Clark definitely doesn’t belong in the same sentence as those guys but Jimmy Crute does.

Fight Prediction:

Smith will actually have a 2” height and reach advantage, despite Crute feeling like the bigger man.

Crute looks like a future contender in the 205 lb division, while Smith has already tried, failed, and failed some more at reaching the top of the division. Somehow Smith is still just 32 years old, but he feels so much older and has 50 pro fights worth of tread on the tires. Based on how well rounded he is, It will be interesting to see how Crute approaches this fight, but we would expect him to keep it standing early on after seeing how dangerous Smith is off his back. Despite all of his submission wins, Smith only has six takedowns in 15 UFC fights and hasn’t landed more than one in his last 13 fights. So with a 75% takedown defense, Crute will likely be able to dictate where this fight takes place. It’s hard to imagine a world where Anthony “My Teeth Are Falling Out” Smith knocks out Jimmy “The Brute” Crute on the feet, and we think Crute could tear his arms off if he really wanted to. We like Crute to get another early knockout win here. It is worth pointing out that despite all of Smith’s recent struggles, five of his last six fights have made it at least to the third round, with the one exception being his recent R1 submission win.

Crute’s diverse finishing abilities, paired with Smith’s durability make this a tougher one to pick props on. We liked Crute’s moneyline at -200 when it opened, but it’s since been bet up to -225, which is less appealing. “Crute Wins in R1” at +290 and “Crute ITD” at -105 are probably the best options now, but this is a tricky spot lacking much value. His R1 KO line at +450 and R1 submission line at +1100 are also interesting as longer shots.

DFS Implications:

Crute is a beast in real life and his DFS scores reflect that, as he’s scored 106 or more DraftKings points in his last three wins. He’s absolutely crushed in his last two finishes, as he totaled 138 and 118 DraftKings points and 154 and 134 points on FanDuel. His physical dominance allows him to put up unusually high numbers (like 8 takedowns in 3 minutes or two knockdowns in two minutes). Smith absorbs the six highest rate of significant strikes on the slate, and Crute lands the seventh most, so while we don’t expect this to be a volume driven score, he has the potential to put up a decent striking total in a short amount of time. Smith also only has a 51% takedown defense, if Crute does decide to take it to the mat. Whichever way Crute decides to attack this fight, look for him to exert his will on Smith and score well along the way. The odds imply Crute has a 64% chance to win, a 42% chance to end things early, and a 17% chance to get a R1 finish.

With no tooth fairy to reward Smith for his ability to outlast his smile inside the Octagon, he rarely scores well in DFS with totals of 63, 79 and 70 in his last three wins where he DID NOT land a R1 finish. All three of those sad scores were notably finishes (R4 Sub, R3 Sub & R3 KO), but you wouldn’t guess it by the totals. He does have three first round wins mixed into his last six victories, but his most recent one only scored 98 points. His only two big scores in his last 10 fights were a pair of R1 KOs in 2018 where he totaled 109 and 128 DraftKings points. He looks completely like a R1 KO or bust play based on those numbers, and the idea of Smith knocking out Crute is still too hard to imagine. The odds do imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 17% chance for a finish and a 9% chance to win in R1, but we’ll believe it when we see it.

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Fight #4

Uriah Hall

17th UFC Fight (9-7)

This is a rematch of a pre-UFC 2010 fight where Hall got knocked out in the first round. But a lot’s changed in the last 11 years, in case you hadn’t noticed.

Hall comes in on a three fight winning streak, after losing four of his five fights before that. His last three wins have come against a 75-year-old dementia-ridden Anderson Silva, a no-longer-in-the UFC Antonio Carlos Jr., and a debuting Bevon Lewis, who is now 1-3 in the UFC. Hall hasn’t been very impressive in his wins and the split decision victory over Carlos Jr. looked to surprise Hall when he heard he won.

His first four UFC losses all ended in decisions, but his last three were all by KO (two in R1 & one in R2). Seven of his nine UFC wins also ended in knockout, while the other two went the distance. Four of his six UFC decisions have been split, and he lost three of those, which may be part of why he was surprised when he actually won his most recent split decision against “Shoeface.” He was also controlled for nearly 11 minutes, which likely played a bigger factor.

Hall’s last three fights have all made it to the third round, and his last five have all made it out of round one. Nevertheless, 10 of his 16 UFC matches have ended in KOs, including six of his last seven and eight of his last ten. His patty-cake-patient fighting style makes a first round KO win unlikely unless his opponent comes charging into a right hand.

In his last fight, it looked like Hall thought he might be able to confuse Silva into believing he was knocked out simply by staring at him long enough, but when that didn’t work he tried an unconventional technique called “punch-ing.” He nearly finished Silva at the end of the third round with this wild new concept, but Silva survived just long enough to see the beginning of round four. Hall finished things shortly thereafter as he dropped Silva for a second time as Herb Dean stopped the fight. The sad parting memory of Anderson Silva in the UFC will forever be him trying to take Herb Dean down with a single-leg as he could no longer tell the difference between pants and skin. Rumor has it, Silva’s still wandering around the back of the Apex asking if anyone has seen his pet duck, Leonard. Someone give these people a retirement plan already so Anderson Silva can stop fighting and Jimmy Flick can start.

Chris Weidman

17th UFC Fight (11-5)

After fighting just once in 2018, 2019 and 2020, Weidman has just two wins in the last six years to go with five losses. He was made famous by dethroning a 38-year-old Anderson Silva back in 2013 and then sort of solidifying the win with a follow up R2 TKO by freak leg injury as Silva’s leg snapped in their rematch. He then defeated another old UFC name in 36-year-old Lyoto Machida. Finalizing his shift of pink slip duty at the UFC’s Elks Lodge, Weidman knocked out a 38-year-old Vitor Belfort.

After starting off his career 13-0, Weidman then faced his first opponent below the age of 34 since 2011 in Luke Rockhold and got knocked out in the fourth round. Realizing he preferred beating up on aging fighters in their late 30’s, he then took on a 39-year-old Yoel Romero. But alas, the magic was gone as Weidman’s days as the young executioner were behind him and now he was the washed up fighter being taken out to pasture. Romero knocked Weidman out early in the third round. Weidman then took on Gegard Mousasi, who was only 31 years old, but had 50 pro fights under his belt, so the tread qualified for Weidman’s geriatric opponent requirements. Once again Weidman was knocked out, this time in the second round as he took one step closer to realizing his own mortality. After getting knocked out three straight times in seemingly a countdown to his own UFC departure (R4...R3...R2…), Weidman let out one desperation gask for air as he submitted the significantly shorter Kelvin Gastelum in the third round. For the record, Gastelum nearly knocked Weidman out at the end of the first round, but Weidman was saved by the bell. Following the finish, the broadcast team immediately proclaimed, “THE ALL-AMERICAN IS BACK!!!” [Spoiler: Wrong].

Proving that finish was the exception, opposed to the rule, Weidman then resorted back to his old ways, taking on a 39-year-old Ronaldo Souza, and getting knocked out in the third round. Then, Weidman had a failed attempt at moving up to Light Heavyweight in 2019, as he finally stepped into the cage with someone in their 20’s for the first time in a decade, as he went up against Dominick Reyes (two months before Reyes’ 30th birthday). Weidman’s Ephebiphobia came to fruition as he was knocked out in the first round by the younger Reyes. Weidman then dropped back down to 185 lb when he most recently took on 32 year old Omari Akhmedov—who he defeated in an uneventful decision. That was notably the first time Weidman had been to a decision since 2014. Both fighters looked absolutely gassed by the middle of the second round, and the third round was spent with Weidman simply laying on top of Akhmedov. Weidman went 5 for 16 on takedown attempts in the fight, while Akhmedov went 4 for 8. Weidman had absolutely nothing to offer on the feet and never looked like a serious threat to land a submission on the mat.

Life Hack: Apparently if you nickname yourself the “All-American” the UFC is legally bound to keep you around so they don’t appear unpatriotic, as Weidman has been coasting on his laurels since 2015. It’s almost unbelievable how many older fighters he’s gone up against, and he continues that theme against the 36-year-old Hall in this upcoming fight.

Fight Prediction:

Weidman will have a 2” height advantage, but Hall will have a 1” reach advantage. Both fighters are 36 years old.

In a sad battle between two delusional 36-year-olds who both still think they have a chance at a title shot, this fight entirely comes down to whether or not Weidman can get it to the ground. He’s entirely reliant on his wrestling to win fights and looks incredibly prone to being knocked out on the feet. Hall has a decent 69% takedown defense, but hasn’t had to defend many takedowns in his career, so it’s hard to definitively say if it’s legitimately good. His last 10 opponents have combined to go 7 for 18 on attempted takedowns, with only “Shoeface” landing more than one or attempting more than three. Shoeface did notably control Hall for nearly 11 minutes, which is definitely of some concern here. Also, three of Hall’s last four opponents didn’t even attempt a takedown, so the Shoeface fight is the only recent example of Hall attempting to defend takedowns. Regardless, look for Weidman to gas out again in the second round and for Hall to win with a R2/R3 KO.

The best lines here are “Hall Wins by R2 KO” at +850 and “Hall Wins by R3 KO” at +1200.

DFS Implications:

Despite landing KO wins in five of his last 10 UFC fights, Hall has amazingly only topped 91 DraftKings points in one of those 10 bouts, which came all the way back in 2015 when he scored 104 points with a R1 KO. In his five wins since (4 by KO), he’s scored 88, 91, 71, 56 and 85 DK points. This can largely be attributed to the fact that he doesn’t throw much volume, hasn’t landed a takedown in his last nine fights, and hasn’t finished an opponent in R1 since the 104 point performance. Basically, all the things you’re looking for in DFS—R1 wins, striking volume and takedowns—Hall is lacking. What he does have going for him is that he’s still shown finishing ability, is reasonably priced on both DFS sites, and should be a low-owned contrarian play after the line flipped making Weidman an underpriced favorite. Weidman has also been knocked out in all five of his career losses, which all occured in his last seven fights. Weidman’s a washed up wrestler, but many people seem unwilling to admit that, so it will be interesting to see where his ownership ends up. Hall looks like a better play on FanDuel where he can score from takedowns defended, as we expect Weidman to shoot for double digit attempts over the course of a longer fight. The odds imply Hall has a 47% chance to win, a 31% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance it comes in R1.

Weidman averages eight takedown attempts per 15 minutes with four misses, and we expect him to shoot for 10+ attempts against a pure striker like Hall. Weidman will want no part in the stand up game, but Hall has notably never been submitted. DFS prices were released when this fight was a pick ‘em, and both sites decided to make Weidman just slightly cheaper than Hall. Since then, the line has moved in Weidman’s favor, meaning that you now can play a slight favorite, priced as a slight underdog. That makes him an interesting/popular cash play, but we prefer to use this as a leverage spot in tournaments and play Hall, since we think Weidman is completely washed and likely loses this fight. If he does win, it will come through a wrestling heavy performance that will score better on DraftKings than FanDuel, as it should include a decent amount of control time. His last win scored a still-not-impressive 89 DK points, but just 79 points on FD. While the odds now imply he has a 53% chance to win the fight, he only has a 22% chance to land a finish and just a 9% chance it comes in R1. We think those numbers are still far too generous.

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Fight #3

Valentina Shevchenko

12th UFC Fight (9-2)

Despite being a ridiculous -1800 favorite in her recent fight against Jennifer Maia, Shevchenko looked a little tentative on the feet. This can likely be attributed to the fact that she was just nine months removed from MCL surgery, and fighting for the first time since the injury. She looked to get a little more comfortable as the fight progressed, and said as much in her post fight interview. Now that she’s gotten that first fight back out of the way and is 14 months removed from the February 2020 surgery, we expect her to look better on Saturday.

Fighting in her 6th straight title fight and 7th of her career, Shevchenko is a solid striker who has only been beaten by Amanda Nunes in the UFC—who did beat her twice, both times by decision. Shevchenko fought at 135 until she dropped down to the 125 lb division following her second loss to Nunes in their 2017 rematch.

Following the switch, Shevchenko landed a massive 95 significant strikes in just under two rounds of action before submitting Priscila “Zombie Girl” Cachoeira at the end of the second round, in one of her few fights scheduled to go just three rounds. Cachoeira is known for her high volume brawls, so it’s not surprising that Shevchenko landed a career high number of significant strikes there, but the fact that she was able to do it in under 10 minutes of action is impressive.

Shevchenko then fought for the vacant Flyweight belt against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a lower-volume match that she won easily. She made her first title defense against Jessica Eye and finished the fight with a R2 KO, where we only saw 10 total significant strikes landed between the two women as Shevchenko amassed nearly a full round of control time before the stoppage just 26 seconds into round two.

Just two months after her first title defense, she put the belt on the line again. This time it was in a rematch against Liz Carmouche, who is the only person not named Amanda Nunes to ever defeat Shevchenko. She did so with an upkick in a pre-UFC 2010 fight that opened Shevchenko up and forced a doctor stoppage. Shevchenko defeated Carmouche in a low-volume five-round decision in their rematch. She followed that up with an early R3 KO of Katlyn Chookagian in her second most recent fight, before undergoing MCL surgery and then defeating Maia in a recent decision.

Shevchenko’s last 13 fights have all made it out of the first round. Five of those she finished in rounds 2 and 3, while the other eight ended in decisions—including five that went five rounds. Of her 20 career wins, 13 have come early, with six KOs and seven submissions. All of her career submission wins (7) have notably come in R1 (3) and R2 (4). Both of Andrade’s submission losses have also come in the first two rounds. The only time Shevchenko’s ever finished an opponent after the second round was in her most recent finish—a R3 KO of Katlyn Chookagian.

Jessica Andrade

19th UFC Fight (12-6)

Now going into her 19th UFC bout, Andrade will be fighting at 125 lb for just the second time in her career, in what will be her fourth UFC title fight. Her previous three title fights were all at Strawweight (115 lb), where she went 1-2 when the belt was on the line. In the first of those three she was dominated by Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a lopsided 2017 five-round decision, where Jedrzejczyk ran laps around her in the striking department, outlanding her 225-83 in significant strikes and defending 8 of Andrade’s 10 takedown attempts.

In her second title fight, Andrade was behind in significant strikes 55-47 before she knocked Rose Namajunas out with a flukey slam. She barely hung onto the belt long enough to say Strawweight Champion, as she was knocked out in 42 seconds in her next fight by Zhang Weili. She then lost a three round rematch against Rose Namajunas before quitting on the Strawweight division and moving up to Flyweight.

In her first career Flyweight fight, Andrade took on Katlyn “Nicknamed by someone that doesn’t speak English” Chookagian [We’re guessing the nickname “Blonde Fighter” sounds way more badass in another language]. Andrade had one of the most fortunate outcomes you can ask for as she landed a Kill Bill style body shot at the end of the first round that left Chookagian fleeing across the Octagon before collapsing to the ground.

Andrade now has three finishes in her last night fights—one by slam, another by body shot, and a third from a clean right hook against an under-gunned Karolina Kowalkiewicz. She relies on overpowering her opponents to win fights, and is a one-dimensional fighter in that sense. Her entire game is based around striking blitzes and big powerful slams, which is a big reason she moved down from 135 lb, where she had gone 4-3 in the UFC, to 115 lb in 2016. She had a tougher time exerting her will in the 135 lb division, with her only finish in her first seven UFC fights coming by Guillotine Choke, while all three losses during that period came early (2013 R2 KO, 2015 R1 Sub & 2015 R2 Sub).

After dropping down two weight classes in 2016, she went 7-3 in the 115 lb division, with four finishes, including three KOs and one submission—all in the first two rounds. As a more imposing force at 115 lb, her only early loss was the 2019 R1 KO against Zhang Weili. However, after losing two in a row she decided to test the waters at 125 lb, which has so far paid off.

Andrade hasn’t been taken down in her last five fights, but the only person who actually tried was Rose Namajunas, who went 0 for 1 and 0 for 2 in their two matches. The last person to get Andrade down was Tecia Torres (15% Career TD Accuracy), who went 2 for 2 in 2018.

While Andrade officially has a 76% takedown defense, it looks potentially fraudulent. It’s largely based on a few terrible performances by opponents with horrendous career takedown accuracy numbers (21%, 10%, 42%, and 23%). While Andrade has only been taken down 10 times on 43 total attempts in the UFC, four of her 18 opponents combined to go 1 for 29, while the rest went 9 for 14. So while it is true that the only person to take Andrade down in her last 11 fights was Tecia Torres (15% Career Takedown Accuracy), only Namajunas, Gadelha and Penne have tried—and all of those were at 115 lb, not 125 lb. Here are the takedowns attempted against Andrade throughout her career:

At 125 lb (2020):
Chookagian - No Takedowns Attempted

At 115 lb (2016-2020):
Namajunas 2 (53% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 1
Weili - No Takedowns Attempted
Namajunas (53% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 2
Kowalkiewicz - No Takedowns Attempted
Torres (15% Career TD Accuracy) 2 for 2
Gadelha (42% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 7
Jedrzejczyk - No Takedowns Attempted
Hill - No Takedowns Attempted
Calderwood - No Takedowns Attempted
Penne (23% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 6

At 135 lb (2013-2015):
Pennington 2 (28% Career TD Accuracy) 2 for 2
Moras (21% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 8
Reneau - No Takedowns Attempted
Pacheco (0% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 1
Pennington (28% Career TD Accuracy) 2 for 3
Sexton 2 (10% Career TD Accuracy) 1 for 8
Carmouche 2 (51% Career TD Accuracy) 3 for 3

So you can see that at 135 lb Pennington and Carmouche had no issue getting Andrade to the ground. Andrade does have a decent Guillotine Choke, which is how she finished six of her seven career submission wins, so that may also serve as a deterrent for opponents considering whether to attempt takedowns against her. Her only other submission win was a 2013 R2 Rear-Naked Choke.

Don’t get us wrong, Andrade is a 5’1” powerhouse, but you can’t win every gunfight with a bazooka, and she lacks the arsenal to win a tactical battle.

Fight Prediction:

Shevchenko will have a 4” height and reach advantage.

It’s hard to imagine Andrade completely changing her approach to fighting now in her 19th UFC fight and 30th fight of her pro career, so expect her to come in looking for the early kill. Shevchenko is more prepared to defend that than possibly any fighter Andrade has ever faced, and she thrives against aggressive opponents [not named Amanda Nunes]. Shevchenko will have a well rounded game plan at her disposal, with the option of counter striking or taking the fight to the ground if things get hairy. She’ll have a considerable size advantage over Andrade that she should fully capitalize on with both punches and kicks as she tactfully dismantles the battering ram. We like Shevchenko to get the fight to the ground and control Andrade before finishing this one with a second round submission.

Our favorite bet here is “Shevchenko Wins by R2 Submission” at +2600, but you can also consider her decision line at +155. We also like her anytime submission line at +600, R2 Win line at +700 and R3 Win line at +1000.

DFS Implications:

When you pair Shevchenko with another counter striker, it’s a recipe for a disappointing low-volume matchup. However, Andrade is a blitzing, brawling hobgoblin who would rather gouge her own eyes out than participate in a staring contest. This has all the makings for a pace-up explosion spot for Shevchenko as Andrade will consistently force the action. Shevchenko has landed 18 takedowns in her last six fights and eight in her last two. Since dropping down to 125 lb, Shevchenko has DraftKings scores of 160, 111, 107, 74, 86 and 134. The 107 and 86 point scores came early in the second and third rounds or else they would have scored better, and the 74 point performance came in a flukey low volume five round decision against her former nemesis in Liz Carmouche. Her 160 point explosion was a little flukey in the other direction, while her 111 and 134 point scores seem to best represent her most likely range of outcomes here. Hopefully the field puts some weight on her terrible scores back when she was fighting at 135 lb, because in reality, those carry very little weight in terms of future expectations.

Shevchenko has alternated finishes and decisions over her last nine fights, and maybe this doesn’t actually mean anything from a predictive standpoint, but for the record, she is coming off a decision. The last two really aggressive strikers Shevchenko fought were Jedrzejczyk and Cachoeira, and Shevchenko scored 111 and 160 DraftKings points respectively. Those were good for 103 and 154 points on FanDuel. Shevchenko opened the week tied as the biggest favorite on the slate at -400 and has only seen the line get wider from there. She has a slate-leading 79% chance to win this fight, an eyebrow-raising 38% chance for a finish, and a fair 12% chance of getting it done in R1. Despite scoring 134 DraftKings points in her recent win and now being the biggest favorite on the slate, the sense we get is that the field will be lower on Shevchenko than the other five round favorites, largely based on her $9.5K DK price tag. The stars have aligned for Shevchenko here in DFS, and this looks like a prime explosion spot at pretty reasonable ownership, all things considered.

Despite losing two of her last three fights and only having one Flyweight match on her record, Andrade now gets a shot at the Flyweight belt simply by process of elimination. Her DK stat sheet lights up like a slot machine with four of the last five results above the fold coming in as KOs, and three 100+ point performances. Scroll down further and you’ll find two mammoth 142+ point three round decision wins. And all at $6,700?! Surely, this is too good to be true. And it is. Andrade ran roughshod through the 115 lb division before eventually getting figured out at the top. She then moved up to 125 lb and landed another finish in what appeared to be a seamless transition, which apparently justified a title shot. However, a flukey win over Chookagian is far from a valid argument that she can defeat the dominating Flyweight champion in Shevchenko. Andrade has consistently shown the ability to absolutely dominate non-elite talent, but routinely gets stopped by the women at the top. Her one-dimensional overpowering fighting style can be overwhelming, but is far from impervious, and she’s really struggled when her power is matched.

In Andrade’s previous two title fight losses, her opponents have scored 122 and 112 DraftKings points, while totaling 179 and 129 points on FanDuel. In her one title fight win she scored 100 DraftKings points and 121 points on FanDuel. Whether she’s been a dog or a favorite, Andrade has been consistently highly-owned at over 30% in her last two fights (31% & 36%). We expect Andrade to be just as highly owned as Namajunas, despite having a far worse chance of actually winning. People are enamoured with her DFS ceiling and simply can’t help themselves with knowing when to quit her. The odds indicate she has a 21% chance to win the fight, a 15% chance to end it early and a 6% chance to get it done in R1. All well below her projected ownership. This looks like a perfect sell-high spot on Andrade.

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Fight #2

Zhang Weili

6th UFC Fight (5-0)

Coming in on an insane 21 fight win streak, Zhang’s last fight may go down as one of the top Women’s MMA fights of all time. In a striking bonanza, Zhang defeated former champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a close five-round split decision. Despite losing, Jedrzejczyk actually finished ahead on significant strikes 186-165 and successfully defended seven of Zhang’s eight attempted takedowns. However, the numbers failed to tell the whole story, and Jedrzejczyk’s grotesquely ballooning forehead could not have gone unnoticed with the judges. Google it. Regardless of the outcome, it was a great fight that likely could have gone either way depending on scoring biases. That was Zhang’s first title defense after winning the belt against Andrade in her previous match.

In what was her first five round UFC fight and just the second of her career, Zhang showed why you don’t bring a knife to a gunfight (yes, we’re talking about her jacked arms). As she often does, Andrade decided she wanted to brawl and Zhang happily obliged, as she landed a barrage of elbows, knees and punches to the face of her shorter Brazilian opponent. The fight, which took place in Zhang’s home country of China, lasted just 42 seconds, marking one of the shortest title reigns in UFC history and the second fastest finish in UFC Women’s Strawweight history. For a fighter that relies on overpowering her opponents with blitzes of strikes, Andrade certainly got a taste of her medicine in that one.

Looking back at how Zhang ascended to Strawweight champion, she actually lost her first pro fight in a two-round decision, before deciding she wasn’t a fan of losing and wouldn’t be doing that anymore. She proceeded to win her next 16 fights BEFORE joining the UFC, with 15 of those ending early.

She started off fighting at 132 lb before dropping down to 115 lb in her fourth pro fight. She notably did face some dubious competition prior to joining the UFC, who entered with records of: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 3-4, 4-3-1, 18-9, 4-1, 13-10-1, 3-1, 4-4, 4-0, 12-9, 2-0, 8-1, and 7-8.

She made her 2018 UFC debut against Danielle Taylor, who came into the match 2-2 in the UFC and was released after Zhang defeated her in a unanimous 29-28 decision. Next Zhang faced Jessica Aguilar, who was 1-2 in the UFC at the time, but has now lost 5 of her last 6 fights, including losing to Danielle Taylor outside of the UFC in what amounted to a consultation match. Aguilar’s nickname is “JAG” which seems generous, and Zhang submitted her in the first round via Armbar. Following the pair of wins over inferior competition, Zhang was given her first real test in Tecia Torres, who was coming off a pair of losses against Andrade and Jedrzejczyk [wait, exactly how small IS the Women’s Strawweight division?]. Zhang defeated Torres in a low volume unanimous decision, but it was enough to get her a title shot.

Zhang looks to be the most dangerous in the opening 10 minutes of fights as all 17 of her career finishes (10 KOs & 7 Subs) have come in the first two rounds, including 11 in R1 and six in R2. She has alternated first round finishes and decision wins over her last six fights and is coming off a decision, but don’t read too much into that. Interestingly, all of her career finishes have come in China or other parts of East Asia, while all three of her fights in the US have ended in decisions. It’s hard to pinpoint the reason for that if there is one. Maybe it’s the fans, the lack of travel, the PEDs...who’s to say? Regardless of the cause, it is an interesting trend to monitor. Only four of her 21 pro wins have gone the distance, and she’s never been finished.

Rose Namajunas

11th UFC Fight (7-3)

Namajunas is coming off a bittersweet redemption win against Jessica Andrade, who had rudely slammed Rose on her head and stolen her belt while she was unconscious in their prior matchup. After then defeating Andrade in the rematch via split decision, Namajunas was given the unfortunate news that Andrade had already squandered the belt on booze and hookers and Namajunas would be forced to track it down for herself [Queue up Jimmy Stewart from It’s a Wonderful Life]. Luckily for Rose, she’s half Precog and immediately knew where to look, as she now takes on not just the Women’s Strawweight champ, but also apparently the whole Communist party. Did we love everyone yet? Perfect. Onto stats.

Namajunas was ahead on significant strikes 55-47 in the first matchup against Andrade before she got dropped on her neck/head in the second round, which ended the fight. She also came out ahead in the rematch, albeit at a slower pace, with the significant striking totals ending up 82-71. The striking in their first matchup was on pace for 104-88 by the end of the third round and 207-177 if they could have kept it up for the full five rounds.

Prior to the pair of fights against Andrade in 2019 and 2020, Namajunas initially won the Strawweight belt against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2017 and then defended it in a 2018 rematch (Namajunas loves rematches). In her first fight against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Namajunas landed her first and only career KO with a clean left hook to the chin of the champ in the first round to win the Women’s Strawweight belt. Namajunas appeared to knock Jedrzejczyk down twice in the three minute fight, but was only credited with one of those. Jedrzejczyk claimed the KO was at least in part due to a tough weight cut, for what it’s worth.

The rematch against Jedrzejczyk lasted much longer, as it went the full 25 minutes. Jedrzejczyk actually outlanded Namajunas 145-105 in significant strikes, but Namajunas did land one takedown at the end of the fight. Despite coming out behind in striking, the judges unanimously ruled in Namajunas’ favor 46-49. Obviously the round by round numbers mean more than the pure totals.

After fighting just once per year in 2018, 2019 and 2020, it’s now been four years since Namajunas faced anyone other than Jedrzejczyk and Andrade. That’s more bizarre than concerning for a top ranked fighter in the prime of her career. Anyways, Namajunas has a great striking coach in Trevor Whitman and the best sparring partner you could ask for in Valentina Shevcheko, so she should come into this fight as prepared as possible. She’s also a black belt in Taekwondo and Karate and a brown belt in BJJ. She’s a sharp, fluid and patient striker who does a good job of controlling distance with solid footwork. Larger cages would seem to benefit her style as she likes to float away from contact in open space.

This will be her sixth five round fight in the UFC. Her first came in her 2014 UFC debut, which was also the finale to the Ultimate Fighter. It didn’t go well, as Namajunas was submitted by Carla Esparza in the third round via Rear-Naked Choke. Two fights later Namajunas took on Paige VanZant in another five rounder, and this time came out victorious with a Rear-Naked Choke submission win of her own, this one occurring in the fifth round. Two years after that Namajunas got her first title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and won the belt with a first round KO. She then defended the belt in a rematch that went the full 25 minutes. After beating the former champ in back-to-back title fights, Namajunas was knocked out by Jessica Andrade via R2 slam in her most recent five rounder. So she’s 3-2 in five-round UFC fights with both losses coming early (R3 Submission & R2 KO). Two of the three wins made it to the fifth round, with just one of her five round fights going the distance.

Six of Namajunas’s nine career wins have come early, with five submissions and one KO. Half of her four losses have also come early, with the submission loss to Esparza in her debut and the flukey KO loss by slam against Andrade.

Fight Prediction:

Namajunas will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

Namajunas’ elite footwork and head movement combined with her reach advantage will frequently leave Zhang swinging at air. However, Zhang is clearly the more powerful fighter, and if she does land something clean she’s a serious threat to end fights early. With that said, both of these women have looked durable and there’s a good chance this fight goes the distance. We expect a close five round decision that could go either way. Of the five round underdogs on this slate, Namajunas is definitely our favorite to pull off the upset and the odds agree.

The safest bet is that the fight goes the distance at -122. The other four lines we like are Namajunas’ moneyline at +172, “Namajunas Wins by Decision” at +500 (our favorite bet), “Zhang Wins in R1” at +800 and “Zhang Wins in R2” at +1100. Those last two are long shots, but all 17 of Zhang’s finishes have come in the first two rounds, so the lines seem a little wide.

DFS Implications:

Unsurprisingly, Zhang has been a solid DFS producer in her first round finishes, with DraftKings scores of 137 and 121 and FanDuel totals of 129 and 146. In her two three round decisions she scored just 90 and 68 points on DraftKings, while she put up 104 points in her recent five round decision. She has landed at least one takedown in all four of her UFC fights that made it out of the first minute, but has never landed more than two—which she only did once. She seems like more of a striker in terms of preference, but definitely has the grappling skills to submit opponents. Especially on DraftKings, she’s not a lock to return value if this fight goes the distance, which the odds indicate has a 55% likelihood of happening. She looks like a better play on FanDuel where significant striking is more heavily emphasized. The odds also imply she has a 64% chance to win, a 28% chance to get it done early and a 10% chance it comes in R1.

In her five UFC five-round fights, Namajunas has put up DraftKings scores of 17 (L), 142, 107, 79, and 33 (L). Those equated to 29 (L), 133, 121, 89, and 56 (L) on FanDuel. Her one explosion spot came in a fifth round submission of a terrible Paige VanZant, where Namajunas put on a dominating grappling performance with eight takedowns, nearly 17 minutes of control time, four submission attempts and 104 total strikes. She also put up a solid score in her R1 KO win of Jedrzejczyk, but failed to score well in the rematch, which was also her only five round fight to go the distance. While her cheap DraftKings price tag could keep her in play even with a lower scoring decision win, it’s certainly of some concern, especially in a larger Octagon, and she’s far less likely to be useful at her higher FanDuel price. Therefore, we like her more on DraftKings for this slate. With that said, the one reason to like her on FanDuel is that Zhang averages the third most missed takedowns on the slate. Looking at the odds, Namajunas has a 36% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #1

Kamaru Usman

14th UFC Fight (13-0)

Usman has been flip-flopping between Burns and Usman since last Summer. First he was scheduled to fight Burns last July, but Burns tested positive for COVID shortly before the fight and Masvidal stepped in on short notice. After defeating Masvidal, Usman then rebooked the Burns fight for February and knocked him out in the third round. Now he’ll give Masvidal a rematch, in a fight where they’ll both have time to prepare for one another. Keep in mind, neither guy had much time to prepare for the other last time.

This will be Usman’s seventh straight five round fight and fifth consecutive title fight. Two of his last three wins have come by KO, but five of his last seven fights ended in decisions. He comes in on a crazy 17 fight winning streak, with his only career loss coming in his second pro fight back in 2013 from a R1 Rear-Naked Choke. Nine of his 18 career wins have come early, with eight KOs and one submission. However, 9 of his last 12 fights have ended in decisions, with the three exceptions being a 2017 R1 KO over Sergio Moraes, a 2019 R5 face-breaking KO of Colby Covington and the recent third round KO of Burns. Usman’s only other early win in the UFC came in his 2015 UFC debut by R2 Arm-Triangle Choke. Usman wrestling is unmatched and he’s also a BJJ black belt.

Masvidal has been talking a lot of shit for a long time, and like we saw when Usman smashed Covington, you won’t like him when he’s angry. Despite all of his success, Usman could come into this fight with something to prove.

Jorge Masvidal

20th UFC Fight (12-7)

Masvidal has milked his viral five second flying knee KO of Ben Askren so much he might as well be a dairy farmer. It’s really all just part of his Street Jesus self-marketing campaign, which he’s actually been more successful at than fighting. Keep in mind, this guy is 3-3 in his last six fights, yet somehow managed to finagle two straight title shots after beating a couple of fighters in the later stages of their careers in Ben Askren and Nate Diaz in 2019. Askren went on to lose one more fight in the UFC before moving on to becoming a novelty sideshow who gets knocked out by YouTube clowns and Diaz hasn’t fought since (he’ll finally be fighting next month after 18 months away).

To Masvidal’s credit, his last five wins have all come by KO, and despite his 12-7 UFC record, all seven of those losses have gone the distance. He hasn't been finished since 2009, when he was submitted in the third round, and his only career KO loss came in 2008. The only other time he’s been finished was a 2005 submission. Masvidal is a good striker with KO power, but he lacks the type of well-rounded game that Usman brings to the table. [Raise your hand if you’re tired of hearing about his “underrated” grappling? Just us?]

Despite his recent streak of finishes when he wins, nearly half (17) of his 35 career wins have gone the distance. He has 16 career KOs and two wins by submission. We mentioned he’s been finished early three times, his other 11 career losses went the distance.

Fight Prediction:

Usman will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

This will be a rematch of the July 2020 fight that Usman won easily (45-50, 45-50, 46-49), with nearly 17 minutes of control time in a clinch-heavy, foot-stomping good time. Masvidal notably took that fight on just a week’s notice. Early on in the fight Usman was able to get the fight to the mat as he caught a low quick of Masvidal and drove through it, however he had limited success on his takedowns as he ended up going 5 for 16 on his attempts. Masvidal has decent striking, but can’t compete with the grappling of Usman. Lots of people like trying to guess when Usman will eventually lose for the first time in the UFC. So far those people are 0 for 13 in the UFC. We prefer the ride it ‘till it bucks philosophy and will continue picking him to win until the day he loses or retires. Usman’s elite combination of wrestling, striking, and toughness are an unstoppable force and we don’t think Masvidal having a full camp to prepare will change anything here. If anything, Usman will come in even more motivated and with an even bigger chip on his shoulder. He was also apparently fighting through a previously broken nose in their last match. We like Usman to win a decision here.

We know Usman by decision didn’t work out last time, but it once again looks like the most likely outcome here. The only problem is at -120 it’s hard to get excited about it.

DFS Implications:

Usman has been a massive beneficiary in the UFC of the new DraftKings scoring system. He lands a ton of strikes from the clinch that don’t register as significant and dominates in control time with a 49% average over his last seven fights. He also generally dominates in DraftKings scoring, with totals of 104, 156, 130, 168, 195, and 80 in his last six five round fights. His Fanduel scores over that period have been 133, 106, 154, 120, 173, and 117. So you can see that when he faced Masvidal previously, he put up a monster DraftKings score (156), but his worst FanDuel score over those six fights (106). The reason for that is he landed 263 total strikes but just 94 significant. He also had nearly 17 minutes of control time. It’s hard to say if this fight will play out the same way, but if it does, he’ll once again make for a much better DraftKings play. If it turns into more of a Brawl, like when he fought Covington, then he’ll put up big numbers on both sites. So his ceiling is monstrous everywhere, but his floor is higher on DraftKings. We wouldn’t read too much into the fact that Usman didn’t attempt any takedowns against Burns, as Burns has a very dangerous submission game. Masvidal is not a threat to land submissions off his back. Usman has the highest ceiling AND the highest floor for DFS, and therefore will also be the highest owned fighter by a good margin. The odds imply he has a 77% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.

The best thing Masvidal has going for him is that he typically scores well when he wins and he’s also incredibly cheap on DraftKings. Working against him, he’s not going to win. The odds do imply he has a 23% chance to pull off the massive upset and a 15% chance to end it early, but those numbers seem generous if you ask us. Some people may point to the fact that Burns looked to have Usman hurt early in the first round, but Burns at least seems like the toughest stylistic matchup for anyone Usman has faced, and the same cannot be said about Masvidal. If we’re wrong, and somehow Masvidal does pull off the unlikely upset, he would make for an incredible leverage play against the highest owned fighter on the slate in Usman.

Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma

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