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The Maverick/Robertson Fight is OFF!
Fighter Notes:
Miranda Maverick
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off her first career “knockout” win in her UFC debut, Maverick was credited with a R1 TKO due to a doctor stoppage following the first round. The win came against Armbar specialist Liana Jojua and most people weren’t expecting five minutes of unadulterated striking between the two grapplers.
Maverick appeared to bust open Jojua's nose from a heavy left elbow with just 30 seconds remaining in the round. Ironically, Maverick said before the fight that she was looking forward to going against another grappler after she had been paired with so many strikers in the past. Although looking back, maybe she meant she finally had someone she could beat on the feet. With an insane pace, Maverick landed 49 significant strikes in five minutes of action and looked more powerful than she had in past fights.
Maverick has now won four straight, with three finishes, including two in the first round. Six of her eight career wins have come early, with five submissions and now the one KO. Both of her two pro losses ended in decision.
She’ll get another grappler come Saturday, but we expect it to make it to the mat this time. This should be a solid measuring stick for where Maverick's grappling game stands on the UFC level.
Gillian Robertson
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Robertson will be looking to right the ship after getting dominated by Taila Santos for essentially the entirety of a smothering three round decision. Robertson looked to pull guard into an Armbar submission soon after the fight started, but that just resulted with her spending the entire first round on her back. Then Santos took Robertson down 20 seconds into the second round and Robertson was right back where she finished the first. Robertson continued to hunt for submissions, but Santos simply looked too strong for her. She started the third round off with a Guillotine attempt, but frustratingly ended up on her back yet again.
After her first seven UFC fights all ended early, her last two have now both gone the full 15 minutes. This will be her third fight in four months and second in the past eight weeks. Seven of her nine pro wins have come early, with six submissions and one KO. Of her five losses, she’s been finished twice—a 2019 R1 KO against Maycee Barber and a 2018 R1 Armbar against Mayra Bueno Silva.
Robertson has been successful in the UFC by being a technician with her grappling, but that appeared no match for brute strength in her last fight. That’s somewhat concerning coming into this next match, as Maverick has looked pretty powerful from what we’ve seen out of her.
Fight Prediction:
Robertson will have a 2” height advantage, but Maverick will have a 2” reach advantage.
Maverick will have the advantage on the feet in this one, which isn’t saying much as Robertson looks to take all her fights to the mat. We haven’t seen Maverick’s grappling game on the UFC level, so it’s hard to know where it will stack up against a solid test like Robertson. There are a wide range of potential outcomes here and we’d by lying if we said we knew what was going to happen. We could see Maverick outpower Robertson in all aspects of the fight or we could see Robertson utilize her technical skills and experience and put Maverick in precarious positions and potentially land a submission. Robertson is coming off a real learning experience in her last match, but with just eight weeks in between fights, it will be interesting to see if or how much she has grown.
DFS Implications:
Maverick surprised us with her striking volume and power in her first match, but she couldn’t have asked for a more favorable opponent and outcome. Getting a post round stoppage allowed Maverick the full five minutes to rack up 49 significant strikes, while still being credited with the full R1 win bonus. Her inflated score is sure to drive up her ownership, so it makes sense to be under the field in tournaments from a leverage perspective. Robertson does have two R1 losses in the UFC, for what it’s worth, and Maverick clearly has the ability to score well both on the feet or the mat. While Santos dominated Robertson for the entire fight in her last match, she still scored just 78 DraftKings points. If we see similar results from Maverick then fade’s the play.
Robertson has scored at least 92 DraftKings points in all six of her UFC wins, with scores of 94, 92, 110, 106, 97, and 98. After getting dominated for three rounds in her last match, we expect her ownership to be a little bit lower than the 24% number we last saw. And after her opponent Maverick exploded onto the scene with a 110 point R1 KO, we expect her to be a far more popular play. Therefore, Robertson sets up as an interesting leverage play in a buy-low, sell-high matchup. Despite getting controlled for essentially the entire match her last time out, Robertson opened the week as just a +125 underdog and the line has since moved slightly in her favor to +115. This implies she has roughly a 44% chance to win this fight, which is more than twice her projected ownership. That makes Robertson a great tournament play.
Philip Rowe
1st UFC Fight (0-0)A year and a half removed from his third round knockout win on DWCS, Rowe will be making his UFC debut after he had three fights booked and canceled in 2020. Rowe got knocked down early in his 2019 DWCS match and looked to be in trouble. However, he was able to recover and really turned it on in the second round, before finishing things just as the third round started. None of Rowe’s previous seven wins had come past the second round.
Rowe was scheduled to make his UFC debut against Matthew Semelsberger back on August 22nd last year, but was forced to withdraw due to a broken toe. That came after his April 11th debut with Cole Williams was scratched when the entire event was cancelled due to COVID. And his original UFC debut was set to take place on March 28th against Laureano Staropoli, but Rowe also withdrew from that fight.
After losing his first two pro fights in 2014 and 2015 (one by KO and one by decision), Rowe has won seven straight with three KOs and four submissions. Rowe has a background in basketball, not martial arts, and was a self-described terrible fighter when he first started MMA. However, after training with Jacare Souza, Mike Perry and Rodolfo Vieira, Rowe thinks he’s now ready to compete at the UFC level.
At 6’3” with an 80” reach, Rowe generally has the height and reach advantage over any opponent he squares off against in the 170 lb division, and will have the largest height advantage on the slate Saturday. At least against a lower level of competition, Rowe has shown the consistent ability to finish fights. However, he’ll have to prove that carries over to the UFC level.
One important thing to keep in mind is that Rowe’s wins have come against a much lower level of competition. Here are the records of his first nine pro opponents beginning with his two early career losses: 1-0 (L), 0-0 (L), 0-1, 1-1, 0-1, 0-3, 1-2, 4-5, 7-1 (Leon Shahbazyan on DWCS). So outside of his DWCS fight, Rowe has never beaten an opponent who has a winning record. Kind of remarkable.
Gabe Green
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)After going three hard rounds on his way to losing a unanimous 30-27 decision in his short notice UFC debut against Daniel Rodriguez last May, Green will now be making his second appearance inside the UFC Octagon. Despite taking his debut on just four days notice and coming off nearly a two year layoff, Green kept up a furious pace, but was outlanded by Rodriguez 175-127 in significant strikes.
Green debuted in the 170 lb division, where this next fight is as well, but has fought the majority of his pro career below that. He’s fought at 170 lb just three times total in his career, where he’s gone 1-2—including a R1 KO in one of the losses. Here is Green’s pro record broken down by weight class:
155 lb Lightweight (5-1) Only loss came by 2017 R1 KO against Jalin Turner.
160 lb Catchweight (1-0) Fought at this weight once in 2018.
165 lb Catchweight (2-0) Both times in 2017—R1 Rear-Naked Choke win & R1 KO win over Leon Shahbazyan.
170 lb Welterweight (1-2) Only win came in his second pro fight against Hakob Ter-Petrosyan who had never fought professionally before. His second fight at 170 lb was in 2016 and Green was knocked out in R1. His third fight at 170 lb came in his UFC debut, where he lost to Daniel Rodriguez in a unanimous 30-27 decision and absorbed 175 significant strikes.
Green seems a little undersized for the 170 lb division. Generally you see guys move down a weight class when they join the UFC, not up. Prior to his May 2020 debut, Green hadn’t fought at 170 lb since November 2016, but he also hadn’t fought at all since August 2018. You may have noticed in the weight class breakdown above, Green also knocked out the common opponent in this fight, Leon Shahbazyan, in R1 when they fought in 2017.
Green notably took nearly two years off before his May 2020 UFC debut, with his previous fight all the way back in August 2018. He had both shoulder and hand surgery over that time.
While he’s never been submitted, his last two losses prior to joining the UFC both came by R1 KO, in consecutive fights in 2016 and 2017. The latter was at the hands of current UFC fighter Jalin Turner. Green rattled off six straight early wins (2 KOs & 4 Submissions) following the pair of KO losses before taking an extended time off and then losing his short notice UFC debut to Daniel Rodriguez.
All nine of his career wins have come early, with three KOs and six submissions. All six of the submissions came by Rear-Naked Choke. His last three fights have all made it out of the first round, but five of his previous wins came in the first five minutes.
Fight Prediction:
Rowe will have a 5” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.
This sets up as a high-paced striking battle between two guys trying to make a name for themselves in the UFC. Green looked aggressive in his UFC debut and showed he could endure the heavy hands of Daniel Rodriguez smashing him in the face, however Rowe will have a noticeable size advantage in this match. Green will need to successfully close down the distance and fight this one in a phone booth if he wants to neutralize Rowe’s length. The fact that this card is in the smaller cage at the Apex could benefit Green. Rowe was notably knocked down by submission specialist Leon Shahbazyan in his last match, so there’s reason to question his chin. However, if Rowe can control the distance he should be able to pick Green apart from distance. Green has seen the line move in his favor, but it’s still pretty close. Our biggest concern with Green is that he simply looks undersized in this division, but maybe his aggression can make up for that. This is another tough fight to pick a winner in and feels close to a coin flip. However, it should be a good one to watch—especially when you compare it to what else we have on this card. For what it’s worth, both the oddsmakers and the public think Green has the better chance to win this one.
DFS Implications:
Each fighter has only been to one decision in their respective careers—which they both lost. So with a 100% finish rate in their wins, high striking volume, and mid-tier DFS pricing, this sets up well for the winner to show up in winning lineups.
Priced as the slight favorite on DraftKings despite being a slight underdog according to the oddsmakers, Rowe should be the lower owned fighter over there—especially after Green landed 127 significant strikes in his debut, while going toe to toe with Daniel Rodriguez. Rowe will have a massive 5” height and 7” reach advantage, we just need to see if he can effectively use it. He hasn’t really been tested in the past, and all of his wins prior to his most recent came against fighters with losing records. That makes it hard to know how he’ll look at the UFC level, and greatly raises the potential for a fraud alert. However, he could also surprise us and look better than expected. The oddsmakers set his line at +105 early in the week, but it’s since ticked up to +110. That implies he has a 45% chance to win this fight. The oddsmakers are giving him roughly a 28% chance of getting the finish, however, based on the expected striking volume and his reasonable DFS price, it’s possible that even in a decision he scores well enough to crack the optimal.
Green is coming off a hardfought loss, where he landed 127 significant strikes across 15 minutes of action in his short notice UFC debut. That 8.47 SS/min average nearly tops the slate, and is the highest across a minimum 15 minute sample size. One concern with Green is that he didn’t attempt a single takedown in that fight, and even if the decision had gone his way he would have scored just 81 DraftKings points. It’s possible he could have landed even more strikes if he wasn’t so busy getting punched in the face 175 times, but who’s to say? Our second concern with Green is that he seems generally undersized for the 170 lb division. Despite going 9-3 in his pro MMA career, he’s gone just 1-2 at 170 lb with his only win coming in his second pro fight against Hakob Ter-Petrosyan—who had never fought professionally before. In his last two fights at 170 lb, Green got knocked out in the first round in 2016 before losing his recent debut. We could potentially see a move down to 155 lb in his future if he loses this fight. With all that said, Green is an aggressive, high-volume striker with all nine of his pro wins coming early (3 by KO & 6 by Submission). If he does win this fight, there’s a good chance it scores well in DFS. His moneyline opened the week at -125 and crept up to -135 as the week went on, implying he has a 55% chance to win this fight. His ITD line is set at +210, implying roughly a 27% chance he finishes things early. And despite being the favorite, he’s priced just below Rowe on DraftKings. That’s a double-edged sword, however, as it means you get him at a discount, but also that he’ll be even heavier owned. Green is $2 more expensive than Rowe on FanDuel, who released their pricing three days after DraftKings.
Chris Gutierrez
6th UFC Fight (3-1-1)Gutierrez fought UFC newcomer Cody Durden to a draw the last time we saw him inside the Octagon. Primarily a wrestler, Durden completely controlled Gutierrez on the ground in the first round but looked to tire out late in the fight after taking it on short notice. Gutierrez picked things up in the next two rounds resulting in the draw.
Gutierrez won his previous fight with a R2 TKO due to leg kicks, which is really what he’s known for. He completely destroyed the legs of Vince Morales, attacking him with a variety of kicks from both stances. Leg strikes are his primary threat for ending fights early and that’s how he finished his last two TKOs. He does have one submission win on his record, but he’s not much of a threat on the ground. He’s only landed two takedowns in his five UFC fights, and all five of those fights have made it to the second round—three ended in decisions. His only UFC loss came in his 2018 UFC debut via R2 Rear-Naked Choke against a really tough Raoni Barcelos. Three of his last four fights have ended in decisions.
Four of Gutierrez’s five UFC fights have been at 135 lb, but his one TKO came at 145 lb. This fight will be a 140 lb catchweight match.
Andre Ewell
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Coming off back-to-back split decision wins, Ewell has yet to finish an opponent early in the UFC. All four of his wins have come by decision (three split), while both of his losses have been by third round finish—a 2018 R3 Rear-Naked Choke against Nathaniel Wood and a 2019 R3 KO against Marlon Vera. He does have 11 finishes on his record, but eight of those came in the “Gladiator Challenge” whatever that is.
The only time he’s ever been knocked out came in his most recent loss when Marlon Vera finished him in the third round of their 2019 match, after slowing him down with leg strikes. He’s been submitted three times, with a 2018 R3 Rear-Naked Choke against Nathaniel Wood and then twice prior to joining the UFC. Ewell had been scheduled to fight Cody Stamann last week, but was forced to withdraw due to some COVID precautionary confusion.
A southpaw fighter, Ewell has a very wide stance and long skinny legs. We haven’t seen him check many (any?) kicks, and his opponents appear to be picking up on this.
Here are the leg strikes absorbed by Ewell from the beginning of his UFC career (landed of attempted), along with the normal stance of his opponent:
9 of 15 (60%) Barao/Orthadox
13 of 26 (50%) Wood/Orthadox
6 of 10 (60%) Dos Santos/Orthadox
20 of 24 (83%) Vera/Switch
21 of 27 (78%) Martinez/Southpaw
18 of 18 (100%) Rivera/Southpaw
While southpaws have had the most success with leg strikes against the fellow southpaw Ewell, Vera, who switches up his stance, seemed to have his best success attacking the inside of Ewell’s lead leg from an orthadox stance. It appears that fighters have picked up on the fact that Ewell is susceptible to leg strikes and are attacking his legs with more frequency and with greater success. After Vera really exposed Ewell’s vulnerability to leg strikes in their match, landing 20 of 24 attempts, Martinez was able to have similar results. By the third round of their fight, Ewell was switching stances to hide his right leg and forced to fight out of an orthadox stance.
Fight Prediction:
Ewell will have a 2” height advantage and a massive 8” reach advantage.
Added to the card late, this matchup pairs two fighters who have both gone to the judges in three of their last four bouts. This sets up for a striking battle that’s unlikely to end up on the mat. Look for Ewell to use his length to jab Gutierrez from the outside, while Gutierrez looks to land heavy leg strikes. It would be surprising if Gutierrez didn’t have a decent level of success attacking Ewell’s lead leg, and the possibility for another finish due to leg strikes is certainly in play. However, if Ewell is able to get out of range and nullify the leg strikes of Gutierrez we think he can point his way to a decision. That just seems less likely based on what we’ve seen out of him. Gutierrez has never been knocked out and Ewell has only been knocked out once. Neither fighter is much of a submission threat, so if Gutierrez can’t end it with leg strikes we think it goes to a decision.
With this being relatively close to a coin flip according to the oddsmakers, and more likely than not to end in a decision, we see some value in Ewell’s decision line at +260. However, if Gutierrez can chew up the lead leg of Ewell, there’s a chance he gets a late round KO or ends up winning a decision himself, so it’s also worth considering his R3 KO line at +1800 or generic R3 Win line at +1400 (in case he finishes with a surprise submission). If you really want to get crazy, check out Gutierrez’s R3 submission line at +4700, and just hope he puts Ewell down with leg strikes and then jumps on his back for a Rear-Naked Choke finish.
DFS Implications:
Gutierrez has never landed above 69 significant strikes or more than one takedown in a UFC fight. He’s essentially a binary novelty prop bet for DFS purproses: Will he land a TKO by leg strikes? His last two KOs came by leg strikes, both against orthodox stance fighters. He’s now going against a southpaw in Ewell, who notably has a very wide stance with his long skinny legs, and almost never checks kicks. Gutierrez has shown the ability to switch stances and throw leg kicks with either leg, but he prefers to kick with his right leg given the choice. He landed three times as many kicks with his right leg opposed to his left leg in his last win. Taking this fight on short notice, Ewell would not have had much time to prepare for the leg strikes of Gutierrez. The oddsmakers have set Gutierrez’s ITD line at +310, implying he has roughly a 21% chance to close the show early. The last time Gutierrez notched a KO by leg strikes he scored 114 DraftKings points.
Ewell has yet to show any sort of DFS ceiling so far in the UFC. In his four wins he’s scored 81, 63, 59, and 68 DraftKings points. With the serious potential that his legs become compromised in this fight, we think this is another tough spot for him to score well. He’s also going against an opponent who has never been knocked out, further lowering the potential for a ceiling performance. While he does have 11 early wins on his record, those all came prior to joining the UFC against lower level competition on the regional scene. Really the only argument for playing him in DFS is that he’s cheap and low owned, just keep in mind there’s a reason for that. He looks like an easy fade for us.
Mallory Martin
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Martin made her short notice UFC debut in December 2019 in a tough spot against submission machine Vinra Jandiroba. She went on to only land nine significant strikes before getting choked out in the second round.
To balance the scales, the UFC threw Martin a softball (Hannah Cifers) in her second appearance, and Martin let it hit her in the face as she got dropped by Cifers midway through the first round. Cifers emptied her clip, and very nearly got the finish as she unloaded on Martin. However, Martin was able to survive the first round after she pulled guard and hung on for dear life. Then to start the second round she immediately shot for a takedown and was able to take Cifer’s back and submit her shortly after. Martin’s primal scream following the stoppage showed just how much getting her first UFC win meant to her.
Prior to joining the UFC, Martin was on a five fight winning streak, with two of those wins coming by KO (R2 & R3) and one by a R2 Rear-Naked Choke submission. With 10 pro fights under her belt, Martin has never been in a fight that ended in the first round. Six of her 10 pro fights have made it to R3 with five ending in decisions.
The only time Martin has been finished was the submission loss in her UFC debut. Both of her other two career losses were by decision in her first three pro fights. And one of those decisions was against Maycee Barber, which is one of only two times someone has gone the distance with Barber.
Martin currently holds an awful 25% takedown defense, but she’s only been taken down three times on four attempts so far in the UFC. And all four attempts were by Vinra Jandiroba. Neither Cifers, in her last fight, or Micol DiSegni, in her 2019 DWCS match attempted a takedown, so we don’t have a ton to go off of.
Polyana Viana
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Coming off her 10th first round finish in 11 pro wins and second in the UFC, Viana had previously lost three straight matches and was desperate for a win. Just minutes after Martin finished Cifers in the previous fight, Viana submitted Emily Whitmire less than two minutes into the first round. For context, all four of Whitmire’s pro losses have come by submission. Following the submission, VIana let out a similar primal roar, as if she and Martin were communicating kills to one another between the Octagon and backstage.
Polyana came into the UFC 9-1 as a pro and a former Jiu-Jitsu World Champion with eight R1 wins (5 submissions with four by armbar & 3 KO’s). She notably knocked out Amanda Ribas in 2015, long before either joined the UFC. It appeared that might translate seamlessly into the UFC after she won her debut with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke submission. But that’s when things went sideways for her as she stacked up losses.
Viana lost two straight decisions after the win in her debut, including a head-scratching loss to previously mentioned softball Hannah Cifers. Following the loss to Cifers, Viana moved up to the 125 lb weight class for one fight, but continued her downward spiral and was submitted in 69 seconds [nice] by Veronica Macedo via Armbar. She dropped back down to 115 lb for her next fight, where she finally broke her losing streak.
Viana has a very active guard off her back and five of her seven submission wins have come by Armbar (the other two were by Rear-Naked Choke).
Fight Prediction:
Viana will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
This is the rare matchup between two women who were both dropped by Hannah Cifers. Interestingly, both of these ladies competed in the first two fights on the August 29th card and landed submission victories just minutes apart. They’re also both BJJ brown belts and prefer to fight on the mat (did they just become best friends?). Viana, however, has proven to be the more dangerous fighter in terms of landing submissions. Neither fighter has ever been knocked out, but both have a submission loss in their second most recent fight. We think the two most likely outcomes here are that either Vianna lands another R1 submission or Martin wins a decision.
Vianna’s R1 Submission line at +1100 seems far too wide considering 6 of her 11 pro wins have come by R1 submission.
DFS Implications:
Showing promise in the grappling department, Martin landed five takedowns in her 2018 DWCS fight, however she’s only landed one in her first two UFC fights. There does appear to be the potential for her to score decently from grappling, but now she gets an opponent who’s very dangerous off her back. It’s entirely possible that her game plan coming into this one will be to keep the fight standing up early, to avoid the potential submission threats of Viana. However, as we saw in her last match, when things get hairy on the feet, the first thing Martin does is to look for takedowns—whether that’s pulling guard or shooting for a double leg. Four of Martin’s seven pro wins have come early—just not that early. Three were in the second round and one was in the third. Her R2 submission win in her last match was fringe useful in DFS, scoring 95 DraftKings points. If this slate plays out the way we think it might (lower scoring), there’s a decent chance a similar result would squeak into the optimal here. If this turns into a full-on grappling match and somehow Martin is able to spend the majority of the fight on top, it’s also possible the new DraftKings scoring system could keep her in play, even if the fight goes into the third round or beyond. She’s far less appealing on FanDuel.
Viana has been a R1 or bust fighter her entire career, which is just fine as a DFS underdog. She has just one win outside of the first round, which was a 2014 R2 Armbar in her second pro fight. All three of her fights to make it to the third round ended in decision losses. Viana recorded a near bare minimum R1 win score in her last match as she landed just nine significant strikes, and no knockdowns, takedowns, reversals, or control time before finishing things with an Armbar submission. Considering 10 of her 11 wins have come in the first round, it’s interesting to see such a wide gap between Viana’s moneyline at +130 (42% implied chance), compared to her R1 win line at +700 (9% implied chance). We think the true chances of a R1 win lie somewhere in between.
Belal Muhammad
12th UFC Fight (8-3)This fight had been scheduled for December 19th but Muhammad tested positive for COVID. He had actually originally been scheduled to face Sean Brady in December but Brady withdrew.
Since joining the UFC in 2016, 8 of Muhammad’s 11 fights have ended in decisions, including 7 of his last 8. Impressively, he’s only lost once in those last eight fights, which came in a 2019 decision against Geoff Neal. The one fight not to go the full 15 minutes over that period was a R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission victory over Takashi Sato, who’s last three losses have all come by submission. Even with that one finish, Muhammad’s last eight fights all made it to the third round.
In his 2016 UFC debut, Muhammad lost a decision to Alan Jouban, but bounced back with a 2016 R3 KO in his next fight just 41 seconds before the fight went to the judges. Following his only KO win in the UFC, Muhammad suffered his only KO loss, which came in R1 of his 2016 match against a violent Vicente Luque. Since that early loss, Muhammad has shown the ability to go the distance with several dangerous finishers. He’s coming off a decision win over power puncher Lyman Good. Muhammad showed great footwork and a solid chin in the decision win.
He’s now landed two takedowns in each of his last three fights and averages 2.13 takedowns/15 minutes across his UFC career.
Dhiego Lima
6th UFC Fight (4-5)Lima is a long 170 pounder who’s most comfortable fighting at distance and struggles with aggressive pressure. He booked two fights in 2020, but both of them were canceled. He was originally set to fight Alex Morono in February, but was forced to withdraw due to an injury. Then he was set to face Muhammad in December, before that fight was postponed to this card when Muhammad tested positive for COVID. Lima now has fought in 16 months since he won a decision in October 2019.
After originally joining the UFC in 2014, Lima was released in 2015 following a 1-3 start. All three losses came by R1 KO, while the lone win ended in a decision. He then fought two fights outside the UFC, where he went 2-1, with two decision wins and another R1 KO loss. Lima was able to work his way back inside the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter, where he once again took full advantage of the opportunity in front of him and lost his first two fights back in the UFC with a 2017 R2 Rear-Naked Choke submission and a 2018 decision. Allowed to stick around despite his struggles, Lima has since won three straight fights, including a 2018 R1 KO win followed by a pair of decisions in 2019. That 2018 R1 KO win is Lima’s only early win in his last 13 fights going back to 2013 and came against Chad Laprise, who’s been knocked out in the first round in three of his four UFC losses.
After four of Lima’s first five UFC fights ended early, three of his last four have gone the distance. In his last fight, Lima attacked the leg of his opponent with a painfully patient style. He won a low-volume snoozer, outlanding his opponent 32-24 in significant strikes.
Fight Prediction:
Lima will have a 3” height and reach advantage.
Muhammad is a solid fighter who’s better at grinding out decisions than finishing opponents. He did submit Takashi Sato in 2019, but get in line buddy. Based on the fact that four of Lima’s five UFC losses have come early, including three R1 knockouts earlier in his career, there’s some reason to think that Muhammad could get a finish here, but it seems like a stretch to to say it’s likely. We think Muhammad most likely wins a slower paced decision.
Our favorite line in this fight is Muhammad “Wins by Decision” at -130.
DFS Implications:
In his last eight wins, beginning with the most recent, Muhammad has DraftKings scores of 77, 85, 89, 80, 71, 95, 92 and 103. The only time he scored above 95 points came in his lone UFC KO win back in 2016. Even his recent R3 Submission win over Sato scored just 85 points. He’s never landed above 88 significant strikes in a fight, and while he averages 2.13 takedowns/15 minutes, it’s not enough to make up the necessary points in decisions. His R1 win line is +600, implying he has just a 10% chance to finish Lima in the first five minutes. This looks like a fight to fade in DFS for the most part, but Muhammad makes some sense as a low-owned contrarian tournament play going up against a bad opponent with a history of R1 losses.
Lima has just one early win in the UFC and he’s extremely unlikely to get his second in this spot. He did put up one solid score in a decision, all the way back in 2014 in his first UFC win. It came on the back of a dominating grappling performance with six takedowns, nearly 10 minutes of control time, and four submission attempts. We don’t see that happening again for him. The only way we see Lima scoring decently here is if he somehow finishes Muhammad with leg kicks or something flukey like that. As the biggest underdog on the slate at +360, Lima looks like a pretty easy fade. Hopefully the fact that he’s coming off three straight wins confuses some of the field into playing him, but we have him pegged as the lowest owned fighter on the slate.
Rodolfo Vieira
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)This fight had been scheduled for January 16th before Hernandez tested positive for COVID and it got pushed back a month.
A celebrated Jiu Jitsu world champion, the BJJ black belt Vieira had been scheduled to fight Markus Perez last October, but Vieira withdrew from the fight. Vieira is coming off a R1 Arm-Triangle Choke submission win last March in just his second UFC fight. He’s won all seven of his pro fights early with six submissions and one KO. Five of those came in the first round and the only time he’s been to a third round was in his second pro MMA fight.
He’s notably gone against terrible competition in his first two UFC fights, getting Oskar Piechota in his debut (who’s been finished early in his last four UFC fights) and then most recently Saparbek Safarov (who’s been finished early in three of his last four UFC fights).
Vieira is a beast on the mat and is an absolute physical specimen. However, when it comes to utilizing those muscles on the feet, the carpet doesn’t match the drapes with his striking. You would think by looking at him that you wouldn’t want to challenge him to a boxing match, but his standup game is actually pretty weak from what we’ve seen.
Vieira cuts a ton of weight to get down to 185 lb and previously fought at 205-220 lb before joining the UFC. We think if this fight doesn’t end early, Vieira’s gas tank will be a serious concern for the second half of the fight. Remember, he’s a Jiu Jitsu world champion, and those matches max out at 10 minutes, while three round UFC fights go 15.
Anthony Hernandez
4th UFC Fight (1-2)This is an essential fight for Hernandez to win if he wants his UFC career to last much longer. He’s coming off a 39 second R1 KO loss to Kevin Holland last May, which is the second time he’s been finished early in his first three UFC fights. Holland hit Hernandez with a heavy elbow 30 seconds in and followed it up with two sharp knees to the mid section that folded Hernandez up like a cheap lawn chair. The ref quickly stopped the fight as Holland pummeled the facedown Hernandez and the fight ended nearly immediately.
In his previous match, Hernandez took on Jun Yong Park, who came in on a seven fight winning streak and had only been finished once in his career. After starting slow in the first round, Hernandez was able to submit Park late in the second. He landed six takedowns on nine attempts in the match.
Hernandez made his 2019 UFC debut against Markus Perez and was submitted in the second round via Anaconda Choke. While Hernandez’s most recent two opponents didn’t attempt a takedown, he successfully defended 6 of Perez’s 7 attempts in that fight. He had a narrow 17-16 lead in significant strikes before getting submitted.
While Hernandez has just one official knockout on his record, which came in R1 of his first pro fight against a 2-0 opponent, he also knocked out Jordan Wright 40 seconds into his appearance on DWCS in 2018, which is what got him his shot in the UFC. The result was later overturned when Hernandez tested positive for THC, so it doesn’t show up as a knockout/win on his record, but Hernandez’s striking looked pretty sharp in the quick knockout.
While 9 of his 10 pro fights (if you include his No Contest) ended early, his lone decision came in a 2018 LFA five round win against a tough opponent in Brendan Allen. His other six wins included five submissions and one official KO (really two if you count the NC). Four of his five submission wins came consecutively by R1 Guillotine Choke from 2015 to 2017, in his second, third, fourth and fifth pro fights. He had never lost prior to joining the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” tall but Hernandez will have a 2” reach advantage.
Vieira comes in with the highest chances for a first round finish on the card, according to the oddsmakers, with a +110 R1 win line, which implies roughly a 35% chance, and the highest overall chances for landing a finish with a -225 inside the distance line, implying roughly a 59% chance. The books have made it clear they don’t expect this one to go to a decision, setting the odds for the fight to end early at -515 (79%). The next closest on the slate checks in all the way down at -170 for context.
If this fight makes it past the midway point, it will be very interesting to see how Vieira’s cardio holds up. We’d be surprised if the answer was “great.” Hernandez’s best chances to win this fight will be to try and keep it on the feet and expose Vieira’s weak striking game. Another wise move would be to try and wear Vieira out with a cautious early approach, geared towards preventing takedowns. We think Vieira’s game has holes that have yet to be exposed. Whether Anthony Hernandez is the man to capitalize on that is a different story, but he’s certainly in the right place at the right time. Hernandez notably has an 85% takedown defense, but keep in mind that’s entirely based on the seven attempts of Markus Perez, who only had a 25% takedown accuracy in his seven fight UFC career before he was recently released. It’s still far more likely than not that Vieira gets Hernandez to the ground and submits him with his far superior grappling skills, but spots like these fail all the time.
While he’ll most likely lose, we think the betting value lies on Hernandez’s side here. His +320 moneyline, +480 ITD line, +1000 decision line, +2600 submission line, R2 win +1500 line and R3 win +2400 line are all tempting (did we cover it all?). If he can survive the first round and half, we think he has a chance to turn the tables on a potentially exhausted Vieira.
DFS Implications:
Vieira comes in as the most expensive fighter on both DFS sites and sets up to be the highest owned fighter outside of Usman on this slate. While he put up identical 106 point DraftKings scores in his first two UFC fights, those also came against two of the more targetable opponents you could ask for—not that Hernandez is a world beater or anything. We think that given the state of the slate, you’ll want to be heavily exposed to this fight. With a +110 R1 win line (~35%) and a +450 R2 win line (~13%), the bookmakers are giving Vieira roughly a 48% chance to finish Hernandez in the first two rounds. That’s actually right around where we project his ownership to end up, but there’s also a chance he creeps even higher given the alternative expensive options outside of Usman. We’d normally be more inclined to fade a one-dimensional, high-owned fighter, who checks in as the most expensive fighter on the slate, but this slate’s pretty rough. We still think being under the field is the play, but if he goes off and you don’t have him in your lineup you might be drawing dead.
Hernandez is the cheapest fighter on the slate, going against the highest owned fighter not named Usman, in the fight with the highest chances to end early. Does this stand out as an exceptional leverage opportunity to anyone else? Hernandez should come into this fight desperate for a win. He should come in with a game plan to attack Vieira’s suspect striking game and questionable cardio. Whether or not that actually materializes is a different story. We project Hernandez to be owned less than his actual chances of winning this fight, and at his price, any form of victory could be enough for a useful DFS score. Regardless of the outcome here, being over the field on him is the right play in DFS as long as his ownership remains south of his implied win chances.
Julian Marquez
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to mount a comeback from a potentially career ending injury, Marquez hasn’t fought since July of 2018 when he completely tore his latissimus dorsi muscle in a questionable split decision loss against Alessio Di Chirico. Marquez notably missed weight badly on his last fight, coming in at 190 lb for the 185 lb fight.
Prior to the injury/loss, Marquez looked like an up and coming prospect who was drawing praise from self described fan, Dana White.
Marquez landed his shot in the UFC by knocking out highly touted prospect Phillip Hawes in R2 of their 2017 DWCS fight. Then in his UFC debut, Marquez submitted Darren Stewart in R2 with a Guillotine Choke, before ultimately losing to Alessio Di Chirico and getting injured. After 571 days of recovery Marquez was finally cleared to fight again in January of 2020, but was forced to wait a little bit longer due to the pandemic.
Finally, 28 months after suffering the injury Marquez had been scheduled to fight Saparbeg Safarov back on November 14th 2020, but Safarov dropped out shortly before the event due to a “Botched Weight Cut”. It’s now been 31 months since Marquez last stepped inside the Octagon, so it will be extra important to monitor him closely during weigh-ins.
Marquez has been taken down four times in each of his last two fights—both times on six attempts. On the other side of the takedown equation, he’s gone 0 for 3 and 0 for 1 on his own attempts, but has five submission attempts over those two fights. His Guillotine Choke looks solid, which is what he used to submit Darren Stewart. That was one of only two times Stewart has been finished early in his career.
All seven of Marquez’s career wins have come early—six by KO and one by submission, with four R1 finishes and three R2 wins. However, two of his R1 KOs came in his first two fights against opponents who had never fought professionally before and then went on to never fight again. His third win, a R2 KO, came against then 2-5 (now 3-17) Idrees Wasi. He’s never been finished early himself, and both of his career losses were by decision. He had a five fight win streak going before his split decision in his last fight.
Maki Pitolo
5th UFC Fight (1-3)Maki “Coconut Bombz” Pitolo looks to be in a desperate spot here, as the only thing bombing lately has been his career. After losing his last two fights, he’s not 1-3 in the UFC and desperate for a win.
Pitolo got his shot in the UFC with a R1 KO win on DWCS back in 2019. In his first fight up at Middleweight (185 lb), Pitolo crumpled his opponent Justin Sumter with body shots and the ref immediately stopped the fight. Sumter has now lost 3 of his last 4 fights, with all three losses coming in the first round.
Moving back down to where he normally fights at Welterweight (170 lb) for his 2019 UFC debut, Pitolo lost a decision to Callan Potter. Pitolo outlanded Potter 60-48 in significant strikes, but Potter was able to takedown Pitolo three times on four attempts and control him for eight and a half minutes of the fight. Pitolo went 0 for 2 on his own takedown attempts.
Following the loss in his UFC debut, Pitolo interestingly moved back up to 185 lb for just the second time in his career and bounced back with a R2 KO of 37-year-old Charles Byrd, who’s lost his last three fights and is also 1-3 in the UFC.
Since his lone UFC win, Pitola was submitted in the first round by Darren Stewart via Guillotine Choke and then beat in a decision by Impa Kasanganay just three weeks later. Pitola fought three times in two and a half months last Summer, so considering he lost the last two, he likely regrets the decision to fight as often as possible. It’s possible getting some time off will actually help his game.
While two of his three UFC losses have gone the distance, all four of Pitolo’s first four career losses ended early. Two of those came in his first three pro fights, with a 2013 R1 Armbar submission and a 2014 R1 KO. Following the pair of losses, Pitolo won eight straight before suffering another pair of losses with a 2016 R2 KO and a 2017 R2 Guillotine Choke. So in summary, Pitolo has been knocked out twice in his career (R1 & R2) and been submitted three times—R1 Armbar, R2 Guillotine Choke, R1 Guillotine Choke.
Pitolo’s brawling approach generally consists of him trading clean shots with opponents to see who’s chin will last longer. He does have three submission wins on his record, with a pair of Rear-Naked Chokes and a Guillotine Choke of his own, but he’s primarily a one-dimensional knockout puncher. He notably did look slightly more tentative in his last two fights as he spent a little more time circling the outside of the Octagon.
Fight Prediction:
Marquez will have a 4” height advantage, but Pitolo will have a 3” reach advantage.
Both of these fighters look pretty hittable on tape but Marquez has never been knocked out, while Pitolo has been put to bed twice, and submitted three times. This will be fought at 185 lb, but Marquez has also fought at 205 lb. Pitolo, on the other hand, used to fight at 170 lb and Marquez will be the noticeably larger fighter. According to the oddsmakers, this fight comes in a distant second on the slate in terms of the likelihood it ends early at -170 (60%). That gives you an idea as to what type of slate we’re looking at.
Pitollo has only been finished early once since July 2017 and Marquez has never been stopped inside the distance, so there’s definitely a chance this goes the full 15. With Pitolo fighting to stay in the UFC and Marquez coming off a 31 month layoff, it really wouldn’t be shocking to see both guys come out a bit tentative. However, given their historically brawling fighting styles, we still think there’s a better chance things heat up and it ends early. Pitolo has shown a vulnerability to Guillotine Submissions, while Marquez has a solid clamp. There’s also a strong possibility they go in there and simply try to chop down the other’s chin. We think there are a lot more ways for Marquez to win this fight, but if he comes back from the extended layoff a lesser fighter than we saw in the past, Pitolo has the ability to capitalize. We’ll take Marquez finishing things early, but it’s far from a sure thing.
We think Marquez ITD at +155 is interesting and if you want to get crazy check out Marquez R2 Submission win at +3000.
DFS Implications:
Marquez lacks the striking volume to score well outside of an early finish. He also doesn’t add anything in the takedown department, with zero takedowns in his three UFC fights, and carries a high DFS price tag. This likely leaves him as a R1 win or bust candidate in DFS. To further support that, we can also look at the fact that he scored just 85 DraftKings points in his UFC debut when he landed a R2 submission win. With that said, he would have scored 99 DraftKings points in his DWCS R2 KO win over Phil Hawes, with the primary difference being he landed a knockdown in that match. While his lower volume and lack of grappling stats make him reliant on an early finish to score well, his pace up matchup and the alternative options on this slate definitely keep him in play. The oddsmakers are implying he has roughly a 27% chance to land a finish in the first two rounds.
It’s possible this fight plays out similar to Pitolo’s last fight, where he squared off against Impa Kasanganay in a better real life fight than it was useful for DFS purposes, but we think it’s a little more likely to turn into a brawl than that one was. Pitolo occasionally lands a takedown, with four landed over his five UFC fights, so he has the ability to bolster his score a little in the grappling game. But in reality, he’s not much of a grappler. Pitolo was 35% owned in his last fight, where he was a +125/$7,700 underdog on a 10 fight card. He was 33% owned prior to that as a +145/$7,600 underdog on a 12 fight card. We expect him to be a little bit less owned after consecutive losses, but the field seems to enjoy playing him for his upside. The oddsmakers have set his ITD line at +275, implying roughly a 24% likelihood. At his price, even a third round finish could potentially be in play on this questionable card, but he’ll likely go slightly over owned.
Ricky Simon
8th UFC Fight (5-2)This is the third time this matchup has been scheduled. After originally getting booked for last September, Simon withdrew when one of his cornermen tested positive for COVID. Then it was rebooked for January, but Kelleher withdrew when he tested positive for COVID. This fight will notably be up at 145 lb after all six of Simon's previous UFC fights have been at 135 lb. Simon did have three pre-UFC fights at 145 lb and he won all three.
Simon is coming off a career performance just three and a half weeks ago, where he dominated late replacement Gaetano Pirrello, who was making his UFC debut. Simon landed seven takedowns, seven minutes of control time, and 17 significant strikes on his way to a second round submission win. That was just Simon’s second early win in the UFC after he allegedly submitted Merab Dvalishvili in his 2018 UFC debut. Other than the R1 KO loss to Urijah Faber, all five of Simon’s other previous UFC fights had made it to the third round.
Simon went off for 14 takedowns in his 2017 DWCS decision win, but it still wasn’t enough to immediately land him in the UFC. He went on to fight twice after that in the LFA, with a five round decision win followed by a R1 KO victory. It was at that point the UFC brought him on board and gave him a tough challenge in his debut against Merab Dvalishvili. Simon officially submitted Dvalishvili at the end of the third round, but there was never a tap, the horn sounded and Dvalishvili got up shortly after. It was a strange scene.
Simon followed that up with back to back decision wins, seemingly gaining confidence and scoring more points with each win (79 > 89 > 101). However, Simon got knocked out for the first time in his career against Urijah Faber just 46 seconds into the first round of their 2019 match. He then went on to lose a decision to Rob Font later that year.
Following the pair of tough losses, Simon bounced back with a decision win over Ray Borg in May 2020. The performance was good for 107 DraftKings points as he tallied 93 total strikes, 67 significant, 7 takedowns and over five minutes of control time.
The only time Simon has ever been submitted came in a 2016 R2 Rear-Naked Choke prior to joining the UFC.
UPDATE: Simon was slow to weigh in and looked pretty lethargic. Could be nothing, could be something.
Brian Kelleher
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Kelleher is coming off a 39 second R1 Guillotine Choke Submission win against last minute replacement Ray Rodriguez back in September. After Simon withdrew from that fight, Kevin Natividad stepped in on relatively short notice. However, then he too was forced to withdraw and Ray Rodriguez, who the UFC brought in as standby backup stepped in the day of the event. Apparently, amid the chaos Rodriguez didn’t get a chance to watch much tape on Kelleher, as he left his neck wide open on a takedown and Kelleher responded with his seventh career win by Guillotine Choke (6th in R1).
Kelleher also has three submission wins by Rear-Naked Choke and eight wins by knockout. Five of his last six and 10 of his last 12 fights have ended early, and three of his last five didn’t make it out of the first round. Only 8 of his 33 pro fights have made it to the judges, including just 2 of his 10 UFC fights. Kelleher fought his first seven UFC fights at 135 lb before moving up to 145 lb for his last three. He’s gone 2-1 at 145 lb after he went 4-3 at 135 lb. Interestingly, Kelleher has only outlanded 2 of his 10 UFC opponents in significant strikes, and one of those was a meaningless 8-5 over Marlon Vera who then submitted Kelleher 138 seconds into the first round.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’6” but Simon will have a 3” reach advantage.
We recently saw Jerome Rivera attempt to move up a weight class on a quick turnaround and it didn’t work out so well for him. Joselyne Edwards also lost last week on a quick turnaround. One obvious difference here is that they were both underdogs, while Simon is a big favorite, but the point remains. Preparing for and fighting in the UFC is very hard on your body and it’s generally a good idea to take some time off in between fights—just ask Deiveson Figueiredo who ended up in the hospital on a quick turnaround before his second fight even took place. Obviously there are plenty of success stories as well, but super quick turnarounds generally seem like a red flag. For what it’s worth, Simon didn’t appear to take any damage in his last fight, but that’s only part of the equation.
It’s possible this fight plays out somewhat similarly to Kelleher’s fight against another wrestler in Cody Stamann. That fight ended with Stamann winning the striking battle 89-57 and leading on takedowns 2-1. Stamann was clearly aware that Kelleher would be looking for the Guillotine on takedowns and was careful to protect his neck on the four takedowns he did shoot for. Stamann has averaged 7.5 takedown attempts/15 minutes in the UFC, so he may have also been more reluctant to shoot given the submission threat. Stamann ended up winning a decision and scoring just 84 DraftKings points.
Simon has only been finished twice in his career—once by KO and another time by submission. Ten of his 20 pro fights have ended in decisions and he’s won nine of those. He generally just grinds out decisions with constant pressure and takedowns.
Kelleher has been more of a finish or get finished type of fighter so it will be interesting to see which style prevails. We think the most likely outcome here is that Simon wins by decision, but Kelleher has been known to surprise people with highlight finishes.
While we don’t really think Simon is likely to be foolish enough to fall for the Guillotine, Kelleher’s “Win by R1 Submission” line at +2200 simply feels too wide for a guy that has half of his UFC wins by R1 submission. You could also consider Kelleher’s ITD line at +450 considering 5 of his 6 UFC wins and 18 of his 22 pro wins have come early.
DFS Implications:
Simon is coming off a dominating performance and a career best in DFS scoring. This feels like a classic let down spot in a tougher matchup. Kelleher has a solid 72% takedown defense and a dangerous Guillotine Choke Submission that also serves as a deterrent for takedowns. Kelleher does absorb an average of 5.97 significant strikes/minute and Simon has shown he has no problem standing and trading at times, so it’s entirely possible this fight plays out more on the feet than people would expect after watching Simon’s grappling domination in his last match. If that does happen, it will likely come at the expense of Simon’s grappling bolstered DFS goodness. He has far less of a chance to put up a big DFS score if he cuts back on his slate-leading 7.1 takedowns landed/15 minutes. You can’t ignore Simon’s consistent upside, but there are several reasons for concern here, between the quick turnaround, moving up a weight class, increased ownership, tougher matchup, and dubious weigh-in.
With so many potential red flags with Simon (quick turnaround, moving up a weight class, increased ownership, tougher matchup, and dubious weigh-in), Kelleher has more appeal in this spot than he normally would. It’s still a high-risk play, but Kelleher has scored 91 or more DraftKings points in all six of his UFC wins, with scores of 115, 93, 106, 91, 112, and 92. So if that scoring trend continues, it appears that at his low price tag a win of any type would be enough for Kelleher to be useful in DFS. His moneyline opened the week at +225, but has since been bet down to +200, implying he has roughly a 32% chance to win this fight.
Kelvin Gastelum
17th UFC Fight (10-6)Coming off three straight losses, Gastelum feels older than he is. The 29-year-old originally joined the UFC in 2013 and has 17 fights inside the organization. He’s only been finished twice in 21 pro fights, both times by submission. The first early loss came in a 2017 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke against Chris Weidman, while the second came in R1 of his last match via Heel Hook against Jack Hermansson. Heinisch has just two submission wins on his record—a pair of R1 Scarf Hold Armlocks in 2016 and 2017.
Prior to his recent first round loss, Gastelum had been to three straight decisions against Souza, Adesanya and Till. The Adesanya decision was a five rounder, while the other two were three rounds each.
Gastelum has only landed above 67 significant strikes twice in 17 UFC fights and has just three takedowns in his last nine matches. He’s also never been knocked out and really doesn’t bring much to the table these days in terms of making fights exciting.
Ian Heinisch
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Following a 74 second R1 KO of Gerald Meerschaert last June, Heinisch had two scheduled fights against Brendan Allen fall through, after Heinisch withdrew from each (one undisclosed & one due to COVID). Heinisch had lost his two previous fights in a pair of decisions, after winning a pair of decisions to start his UFC career. When you see his striking power it’s a little surprising that his first four UFC fights all ended in decisions.
With a 14-3 pro record, the only time he's ever been finished early came in R1 of a 2017 LFA match against Markus Perez by Arm-Triangle Submission. Half of his 14 career wins have been by decision, while he also has five knockouts to go with a pair of submissions. Six of his seven early wins have come in the first round, so you’ll likely know what you’ve got early with him.
Heinisch seems to have legit knockout power, but this sets up as a rough spot to truly demonstrate that. Maybe he’ll surprise us and be the first person to ever knock out Gastelum though.
Fight Prediction:
Heinisch will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Neither one of these fighters has ever been knocked out and this fight sets up for a lot of faints and posturing. We think it’s unlikely to be very satisfying and it likely ends in a close decision that could go either way. If it does end early, we actually prefer Heinisch to pull off the upset.
We don’t hate the Heinisch decision line at +360, but it’s pretty gross and there are better options elsewhere.
DFS Implications:
Gastelum has scored above 88 DraftKings points just once in his last 10 fights, which came in a 2017 R1 KO against Michael Bisping in his final pro fight. He lacks the striking volume or takedown numbers to score well without an early finish, leaving him as an unlikely option to put up a big score in DFS. The oddsmakers have set his R1 win line at +650, implying he has just a 10% chance to finish things in the first five minutes. Priced near the top of the slate, Gastelum looks like a solid fade on both DFS sites.
Heinisch is coming off his first UFC fight to end early and he finished it in spectacular fashion with a quick knockout. That will likely give him a slight bump up in ownership, making this spot even less appealing to play. We think this fight is destined to disappoint, but if either guy was going to surprise us with a finish, we give the edge to Heinisch. He hasn’t scored well in decisions, so you’re really relying on a finish here if you play him. His ITD line is set at +475, implying he has roughly a 15% chance of accomplishing it. His R1 win line is far worse at +900, implying just a 7% chance. This is not a fight we’re looking to have hardly any exposure to.
Alexa Grasso
8th UFC Fight (4-3)After fighting the first seven years and 14 fights of her pro career at 115 lb, Grasso moved up to the 125 lb division in her last match this past August. She said she felt healthier and overall better at the higher weight class. Grasso outlanded her opponent Ju Yeon Kim 88-68 in significant strikes, while adding a takedown on her way to winning a unanimous decision.
Mostly known as a striker, Grasso did fight grappler Carla Esparza to a close decision back in 2019, and nearly ended the fight both standing up and with an Armbar attempt in the third round. However, she went on to lose a decision.
Despite nearly finishing Esparza, Grasso’s last six wins have all come by decision. Her four career KOs (all in R1) came on her 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th pro fights from 2012-2014 against opponents who entered with records of 0-1, 0-0, 0-0, and 4-1 (now 4-3). In her last nine matches since her most recent KO win, her only fight to end early was a 2018 R1 Rear-Naked Choke submission loss to Tatiana Suarez. Her other six UFC fights all ended in decisions.
For what it’s worth, Grasso has alternated wins and losses over her entire seven-fight UFC career, and is coming off a win.
Maycee Barber
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Barber is 13 months removed from her first career loss (8-1), where she completely tore the ACL in her left knee early in the fight against Modafferi. Barber was somehow able to tough it out and go the full 15 minutes in spite of the injury. Still just 22 years old, there’s no reason to think Barber can’t bounce back from the injury after taking a year off to recover.
Prior to the loss, Barber was 8-0 as a pro and 3-0 in the UFC. Her last six wins had all come early, with her last five ending in KOs. All three of her UFC wins came in the first two rounds. Her lone decision win came in her second pro fight, in an LFA match against Mallory Martin, who coincidentally is also on this card.
In addition to her five knockout victories, Barber also has two R1 submission wins, but they came in two of her first three pro fights against less experienced opponents, who entered with records of 2-0 and 1-1.
Barber throws heavy shots and mixes in knees and elbows to maximize damage. While she’s not out there starching ladies, her heavy striking flurries force referees to step in to save her opponents. She’s good at really turning it on once she sees her opponents begin to shell up, and seems to have the intangible finishing instinct.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5” but Grasso will have a 1” reach advantage.
Grasso looks a little sharper with her striking, but Barber seems to have the power advantage. It’s more likely that Grasso would point her way to a decision win, while Barber will look to finish things early. The odds back that up, as Barber is a +120 underdog in the fight (now +100), but her odds for a finish are +260 (24%). Grasso on the other hand is a slight -120 favorite (52%) with just an ITD line of +700 (11%). Grasso has never been knocked out as a pro, but neither had any of Barber’s other first three UFC opponents and she still got the job done. We like Barber to pull the upset here and land another early KO.
We think the Barber “Wins by KO” line at +500 is far too wide.
DFS Implications:
Grasso landed a whopping 148 significant strikes in her 2019 bout against Karolina Kowalkiewicz (who absorbs 5.65 SS/min on average), but has only landed 88, 45, 6, 64, 80 and 65 significant strikes in her other six UFC fights. When you combine that with the fact that she only has two takedowns in seven UFC fights, and only one in her last six, she appears reliant on an unlikely finish to score well in DFS. For some reason she was 25% owned on DraftKings at $9,100 in her last fight, which didn’t make sense going in and still doesn’t make sense looking back. Obviously she didn’t come anywhere close to hitting value in the decision win, scoring just 81 DraftKings points. In her career, Grasso has never scored above 92 DraftKings points, which came in her one striking explosion. The oddsmakers have set her ITD line at just +700 (worst on the slate), implying she has roughly an 11% chance to finish Barber early. She’s not someone we’re looking to play in DFS.
Barber has scored consistently well in her three UFC wins, averaging 103 points on DraftKings and 119 points on FanDuel. The new DraftKings rules didn’t do her any favors as the majority of her strikes were already counted as significant and she’s generally not one to accrue a ton of control time. Because all of her UFC finishes have been by TKO when the refs stopped the fights, she has yet to land a knockdown. There are two ways to look at that. First you could argue that her DFS ceiling is lower than your typical high-volume finisher. Fair. However, you could also argue that we’ve yet to see her true DFS ceiling because she has yet to land a knockdown. If she can put it all together, she appears to be the type of fighter that has the potential to put up a massive score, the likes we’ve yet to see. It seems unlikely that she would continue to land finishes without eventually getting a knockdown.
Kamaru Usman
13th UFC Fight (12-0)This fight was originally scheduled for last July, but Burns tested positive for COVID and was replaced by Jorge Masvidal on just a week’s notice. Burns is a former training partner of Usman, as both were training out of Sanford MMA, but Usman opted to switch camps and train under Trevor Wittman for this match.
This will be Usman’s sixth straight five round fight and fourth consecutive title fight. Four of his last five 5-round fights ended in decisions. He comes in on a crazy 16 fight winning streak, with his only career loss coming in his second pro fight back in 2013 from a R1 Rear-Naked Choke. Eight of his 17 pro wins have come early, with seven KOs and one submission. However, 9 of his last 11 fights have ended in decisions, with the two exceptions being a 2017 R1 KO over Sergio Moraes and a 2019 R5 face-breaking KO of Colby Covington. Usman’s only other early win in the UFC came in his 2015 UFC debut by R2 Arm-Triangle Choke. Usman wrestling is unmatched and he’s also a BJJ black belt.
Gilbert Burns
16th UFC Fight (12-3)The former training partner of Usman, Burns is coming off a five round decision win over Tyron Woodley, which is looking slightly less impressive now, after seeing how bad Woodley looked in his next fight.
Burns is on a six fight winning streak since getting knocked out by Dan Hooker in R1 of their 2018 match. Four of those six wins have come in decisions, while he also knocked out Demian Maia in the first round of their 2020 match and submitted Mike Davis with a Rear-Naked Choke in the second round of their 2019 fight.
Burns fought his 2014 UFC debut at 170 lb, but then dropped down to 155 lb for his next 10 fights. He moved back up to 170 lb in 2019 against Alexey Kunchenko, where he’s been for his most recent four fights. He's now 5-0 at 170 lb in the UFC, with four wins by decision and one by R1 KO. At 155 lb Burns went 7-3 with four wins by submission, two by KO and one by decision. Two of his three UFC losses have come by decision, with just Hooker finishing him early.
A 2nd degree BJJ black belt, Burns impressively won all seven of his fights prior to joining the UFC in the first round, with three KOs and four submissions. However, since joining the UFC, he has just three R1 wins in 15 fights.
Fight Prediction:
Usman will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
For whatever reason, it seems like people love to daydream about the day Usman loses his belt more than your typical UFC champ. Maybe they just don’t like the way he fights and think he’s boring. I guess they missed the fight where he broke Colby Covington’s face and landed 175 very significant strikes while attempting zero takedowns and only notching 11 seconds of control time. Say what you want about the guy, but he’s an absolute beast and can win fights in multiple ways. Everyone loves to make bold predictions about who’s gonna beat the champ, but betting against a guy who never loses sounds like a great way to light money on fire. We like Usman to defend the belt once again here in another decision victory. We expect a good amount of grappling in this fight, opposed to the type of brawl you saw when Usman decided to teach Colby a lesson.
We like Usman “Wins by Decision” here at +135.
DFS Implications:
Usman may be the biggest beneficiary in the UFC of the new DraftKings scoring system. He lands a ton of strikes from the clinch that don’t register as significant and dominates on control time with a 51% average over his last six fights. He has also dominated in DraftKings scoring, with totals of 156, 130, 168, 195, 80, 126, 107, 106, 85 and 118 (5 round fights are in bold). He’s scored 130 or more points in his last four fights with three insane scores of 156 or more. Usman will absolutely be the most popular fighter on the slate, so if he goes off once again, you have no shot on DraftKings if you fade him. There are slightly more ways for him to fail on FanDuel where he scored “just” 106 points in his last fight, but he still put up huge scores of 154, 120, 173, and 117 prior to that. Surely some people will still have a bad taste in their mouth after McGregor burned everyone, but McGregor’s failure and Usman’s performance have exactly zero to do with one another. Usman easily looks like the front runner for highest scorer on this slate.
Hopefully for his sake Burns has better luck game planning for Usman than he did trying to figure out how to operate the tactical mask during weigh-ins. Burns has been an impressive fighter so far in the UFC, but he’s never been a massive scorer in DFS. In his five round win over Woodley, he still scored just a middle-of-the-road (for a main event) 102 DraftKings points. In his seven wins prior to that he totaled 106, 54, 79, 121, 106, 107, and 111 DraftKings points. However, at his price, it’s still hard to see him not cracking the optimal lineup in a win. The oddsmakers set Burns’ moneyline at +225 and we’ve since seen it bet down to +210, which implies a 31% chance he wins this fight. That feels eerily similar to Dustin Poirier’s line that felt too high, but ended up making many of us look foolish for scoffing at it. Maybe that’s just recency bias seeping into our analysis. Anyways, it makes sense to have some exposure to Burns to hedge your sanity, but being heavy on Usman looks like the play here. The only argument for not having 100% exposure to this main event is that the field will likely have close to 100% exposure to this main event.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma