The Sheet

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #10

Stephanie Luciano

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Luciano was originally scheduled to make her UFC debut in March, but she dropped out after catching Dengue Fever. It’s now been 11 months since she last competed, when she went on DWCS and fought Talita Alencar to a draw, which was apparently compelling enough for the UFC to offer her an immediate rematch. Alencar won the first two rounds on the mat, but then gassed out and lost a 10-8 third round to force the draw. Alencar shot for one desperation takedown after the next late in the fight and finished with a ridiculous 24 takedown attempts, but only landed four of those. Luciano finished ahead 87-35 in significant strikes and 136-66 in total strikes, while also landing her only takedown attempt. Prior to that, Luciano won the vacant Jungle Fight Strawweight belt in a five-round decision where it was Luciano forcing the grappling and clinch exchanges, as she squared off against a fellow rangy striker. That followed a high-volume second round TKO win that Luciano capped off with about a 25-punch combo along the fence to force the stoppage. That’s the only one of Luciano’s last six fights to end early.

Now 5-1-1 as a pro, Luciano has two R2 KO/TKO wins and three decision wins. She’s never been finished, with her only pro loss going the distance.

Overall, Luciano is an aggressive Brazilian striker with a Muay Thai background. At 5’6”, she has good size for the Strawweight division, and also has the ability to push a high pace. That was evident as she outlasted Alencar on DWCS, after going five rounds just before that. She also has decent grappling from what we’ve seen, although her last two fights on the regional scene were against strikers and she did get controlled on the mat for much of the first two rounds in her DWCS fight. She’s still only 24 years old and should be improving all the time, so it will be interesting to see what improvements she’s made stepping into an immediate rematch against an opponent she just fought 11 months ago.

Talita Alencar

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Alencar is coming off a very questionable split decision win in her UFC debut, where she was outlanded 57-36 in significant strikes and 80-48 in total strikes, while also eating the more damaging shots and only landing one of her nine takedown attempts. Two of the three judges scored round three for her, where she failed to land any of her five takedown attempts and was outlanded 13-9 in significant strikes and 14-10 in total strikes. In fairness, her opponent, Rayanne dos Santos, did everything within her power to keep the fight unnecessarily close and ultimately paid for it. That win followed Alencar’s draw against Stephanie Luciano on DWCS and in each of her last two fights we saw Alencar slow down late. After completely collapsing in the third round on DWCS it’s surprising that the UFC even gave her a contract. Prior to that draw, Alencar won a grappling-heavy decision in the LFA against a terrible 2-2 Kelsey Arnesen, who has a loss against an equally bad Marnic Mann on her record. Before Alencar joined the LFA, she submitted her first three pro opponents.

Now 5-0-1 as a pro, Alencar has three submission wins and one decision victory. Two of her submissions ended in round one, with the other coming in round three against a very short notice replacement. Just keep in mind those were all very inexperienced fighters who entered with records of 0-1, 1-1, and 1-1, with one of them stepping on on very short notice. So we’ve yet to see Alencar finish anybody decent.

Overall, Alencar is a BJJ black belt who comes from a grappling background and is a former six-time jiu-jitsu world champion. However, she’s very one-dimensional and doesn't offer much outside of grappling. She’s a bad striker with terrible striking defense, has bad cardio, and isn’t a very good wrestler. Between her DWCS fight and recent UFC debut, she only landed 5 of her 33 takedown attempts (15.2% accuracy), while her opponents got her down once on two attempts (50% defense). She only turned pro in MMA in July 2021 and she’s alarmingly cocky for how flawed she is. While she is a somewhat dangerous grappler on the mat, it seems like she could have used a few more years to improve her striking and wrestling before being brought into the UFC. However, she’s almost 34 years old so time is not on her side. She should be able to find some success against one-dimensional strikers with poor takedown defense, but she’ll be in for a rude awakening whenever she faces any decently well-rounded fighters.

Fight Prediction:

Luciano will have a 5” height advantage and 7” reach advantage, while also being nine years younger than the 33-year-old Alencar.

While Alencar has the grappling advantage in this matchup, Luciano holds advantages in striking, cardio, height, reach, age, and strength. Alencar’s dubious cardio makes it tougher for her to win the third round in fights, leaving her more reliant on strong starts. We haven’t been all that impressed by her grappling, which is concerning for a specialist, and we’d be surprised to see her find a finish here. She claims to have made improvements to her striking, but she’s so small that she’ll always have some inherent limitations—especially in a matchup like this against a tall and rangy opponent. For Alencar to pull off the upset, she’ll likely need to again win each of the first two rounds on the mat, while also avoiding gassing out. While that’s certainly possible, we imagine that Luciano has been working on her defensive wrestling in preparation for this matchup and Alencar may look to wrestle a little less frantically in an effort to preserve her gas tank. Luciano will be landing the more damaging strikes and will have a shot at getting Alencar out of there late if Alencar’s cardio once again abandons her. However, we expect Alencar to manage her gas tank a little better here than she did in their last fight and we like Luciano to outland her way to a decision win.

Our favorite bet here is “Stephanie Luciano KO” at +500.

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DFS Implications:

Luciano is a high-paced striker who will also mix in takedowns and cage control. At 5’6”, she has a good frame for the Strawweight division and she’s still only 24 years old and should be improving all the time. While five of her last six fights went the distance, she does a good enough job of filling up the stat sheet to still score well even without a finish—at least when given the right matchup. She’s facing a grappler here, which creates the potential for her to get controlled on the mat for periods of time, which isn’t ideal. However, if the decision on DWCS against Alencar had gone her way instead of being a draw, Luciano still would have scored 91 DraftKings points, despite being taken down four times and controlled for six and a half minutes. In fairness, the majority of that work came in round three after Luciano Alencar gassed out, but there’s nothing that says Alencar won’t gas out once again here. And if Luciano can keep the fight standing, she’ll have a massive advantage in the striking exchanges and could potentially even find a finish. While we’ll be more interested in playing Luciano heavily against strikers in the future, there are still ways for her to return a decent score here. The odds imply Luciano has a 57% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Alencar is a former six-time jiu jitsu world champion, but is still relatively new to MMA. She’s not a great striker, she has terrible cardio, and she’s like five feet tall. Her takedown accuracy has been bad at 15% and even when she’s landed takedowns she hasn’t looked especially dangerous on the mat. She completely gassed out in the back half of the DWCS fight the first time she faced Luciano and then once again slowed down tremendously late in her recent UFC debut. Despite landing four takedowns with six and a half minutes of control time, even if the draw on DWCS had gone her way, she still only would have scored 78 DraftKings points. Then she scored just 57 points in a suspect split decision win in her recent debut, so despite her wrestling-heavy style, she’s still shown no ability to score well without a finish. She also hasn’t looked like much of a finisher, which leaves her with no likely paths to scoring well. Until she shows improved cardio or any sort of finishing upside, we won’t have much interest in playing Alencar. The odds imply Alencar has a 43% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Youssef Zalal

9th UFC Fight (4-3-1)

Zalal recently made his return to the UFC in triumphant fashion as he stepped in on short notice and became the first fighter to ever submit Billy Quarantillo. Zalal did a good job of landing leg kicks, knees, and trips, as he outlanded Quarantillo 33-10 in significant strikes and took him down twice. Zalal nearly locked up a submission at the end of round one, before finishing the fight with a rear-naked choke two minutes into round two. Zalal opened as a +135 underdog in that matchup, but was bet up to a -125 favorite, which does make you wonder if Quarantillo came in with some sort of undisclosed injury or something that resulted in the line flip, as Quarantillo never looked good in the fight. Not to take anything away from Zalal though, as he looked great in the fight. Zalal was originally signed to the UFC in early 2020 and won decisions in each of his first three fights against a series of low-level opponents in Austin Lingo, Jordan Griffin, Peter Barrett. However, he then faced a huge step up in competition and lost three straight decisions to Ilia Topuria, Seung Woo Choi, and Sean Woodson. He followed that up with a draw in August 2022 against a short notice debuting opponent in Da'Mon Blackshear and was then released. Zalal seemed to take the setback in stride, as he proceeded to rattle off three straight first round finishes on the Colorado regional scene. The first two of those ended in TKOs, while the last was a submission that came at the in the finals of the King of Sparta tournaments, where fighters have to compete in boxing, kickboxing, and MMA all in the same night. The boxing and kickboxing matches obviously don’t show up on Zalal’s MMA record, but for anyone that cares Zalal won a four round decision in his boxing match and then landed a second round TKO in his kickboxing match, with both of those fights being three minute rounds. For what it’s worth, the guy that Zalal beat in the finals was a kickboxer with zero pro MMA fight. Regardless, the UFC saw the success Zalal was having and called him in to try out for The Ultimate Fighter, but he was only selected to be an alternate on the show in case someone dropped out. However, shortly after getting that news, they called him back and said they needed someone to fight Billy Quarantillo on short notice and Zalal immediately accepted to regain his spot on the roster.

Now 15-5-1 as a pro, Zalal has four wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and three decision victories. He’s never been finished, with all five of his losses going the distance. All but one of his finishes came on the regional scene, while seven of his eight UFC fights went the distance. Zalal has spent almost his entire career at 145 lb, but did drop down to 135 lb for one fight in his draw against Blackshear and also had a fight up at 155 lb back in 2017.

Overall, Zalal’s elusive fighting style allows him to evade opponents at will, which has made it tough for anyone to land many strikes on him and he averages just 2.88 SSL/min and 1.73 SSA/min. He’s also been very durable and has great cardio, so good luck if you’re trying to finish him. In his eight UFC fights, he landed 17 takedowns on 50 attempts (34%), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 28 attempts (60.7% defense). The only opponent to get him down more than twice was Ilia Topuria, who landed 5 of his 9 attempts but gassed out in the third round for his efforts. Zalal also has 10 official submission attempts in eight UFC fights, but only completed one of those. He trains at elevation with the Factory X team and his main training partner is Isaac Dulgarian, while he also gets a lot of work in with David Onama. It seems like being released from the UFC in 2022 lit a fire under Zalal and it seems like he leveled up since then. He’s also still only 27 years old and continuing to grow into his frame and add on muscle.

Jarno Errens

4th UFC Fight (1-2)

Coming off his first UFC win, Errens recently won a unanimous 30-27 decision over a debuting Steven Nguyen. Errens outlanded Nguyen 105-63 in significant strikes and also knocked him down in the second round, as he easily cruised to victory. Prior to that, Errens lost a low-volume decision loss to SeungWoo Choi. Errens was able to drop Choi in the second round, but lost the first and third rounds. Errens went down from leg kicks late in the fight, but Choi foolishly went to the mat with him instead of making him try to stand up, or else we likely would have seen a TKO loss for Errens. Choi finished ahead 56-30 in significant strikes and landed his only takedown attempt, while Errens failed to land any of his four attempts. Eleven months prior to that, Errens lost a split/majority decision in his short notice UFC debut against William Gomis, who was also making his debut. Gomis took Errens down three times and controlled him for eight minutes. Errens wasn’t able to do much in the fight and finished behind in significant strikes 20-32 and in total strikes 31-69. The only reason the decision wasn’t unanimous for Gomis is that some rogue French judge gave out an ultra rare 10-10 third round, while also somehow scoring round two for Errens, despite him clearly losing the round. Just four weeks prior to that loss, Errens won a decision with Brave FC, after losing a five-round decision for the NFC vacant Featherweight belt. Errens’ last five and seven of his last eight fights went the distance (3-3-1), with two of those decisions being split (0-1-1). His only fight in his last eight to end early was a 2021 67 second first round knockout, with his second most recent finish ending in a 13 second knockout win back in 2021. So his recent results have been very polarized between decisions and quick finishes. While he’s coming off a higher volume striking battle, his previous four fights all included large amounts of control time, with very little striking. He came very close to going 0-4 in those fights, but narrowly squeaked out a decision win just before making his UFC debut.

Now 14-5-1 as a pro, Errens has three wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and six decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once, and has four decision losses. Four of his eight early wins ended in the first round, three ended in round two, and one was stopped in round three.

Overall, Errens is a Dutch kickboxer with solid power, but has bad wrestling and has been very prone to being controlled on the mat. He’ll often try to defend takedowns by going for guillotines, and will look for various chokes on the mat in addition to armbars, and he nearly locked up a submission off his back late in the third round of his UFC debut. In his three UFC fights, he failed to complete any of his seven takedown attempts, while his opponents got him down on five of their seven attempts (28.6% defense). He only averages 3.44 SSL/min and 3.36 SSA/min, but he did land 105 significant strikes in his last fight, after only totalling 50 combined significant strikes in his first two UFC appearances. He’s still very green and only 29 years old, so he should be continuing to learn and grow as a fighter, but we question his decision making and fight IQ. Sitting on a 1-2 UFC record, he’s likely fighting for his job here.

Fight Prediction:

Errens will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while also being two years older than the 27-year-old Zalal.

Errens has looked vulnerable to leg kicks and being taken down, which are two weaknesses that Zalal should be able to capitalize on. While Errens is the more powerful fighter in this matchup, Zalal is incredibly elusive and owns a 65% striking defense, while also being very durable. Zalal is also the smarter fighter and should come in with a good game plan that prevents him from taking any unnecessary risks. Neither of these two have ever been knocked out, but Errens does have one submission loss on his record and Zalal is coming off back-to-back submission wins. We’ve also seen Errens nearly get finished from leg kicks, so even if Zalal isn’t a big power puncher, he still has a couple of ways to end this fight early. However, we still think this goes the distance more often than not and we’ll take Zalal to win by decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Youssef Zalal DEC” at -115.

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DFS Implications:

Zalal recently made his return to the UFC, a year and a half after being cut from the promotion. While he started his UFC career off strong with three straight decision wins, he then lost three straight decisions followed by a draw just before his release. He averaged 84 DraftKings points in those three decision victories, with scores of 95, 69, and 88. He then landed three straight first round finishes on the Colorado regional scene, before recently being brought back into the UFC to fight Billy Quarantillo on short notice. Zalal looked reinvigorated by the second opportunity and proceeded to land his first UFC finish in a second round submission that was good for a career-best 99 DraftKings points. He still hasn’t shown much of a ceiling and only averages 2.88 SSL/min and 1.73 SSA/min, which will make it tougher for him to return value as the most expensive fighter on the card. On a larger card, that would make him an easy fade, but with only 10 fights here he’ll have a higher chance of ending up in the optimal lineup even without a massive score. Errens has just a 28% takedown defense and has been prone to being controlled on the mat, which is encouraging for Zalal’s scoring potential. And with only three fighters priced at 9K or above on DraftKings, Zalal doesn’t have a ton of competition at the top of the salary range. The chances of him getting priced out of the optimal lineup go down if Mariscal or Williams lose, creating a positive correlation in tournaments between Zalal and Diniz/Jackson. And as a massive favorite who’s never been finished and who scored 88 or more DraftKings points in three of his four UFC wins, Zalal looks like a good play in low-risk contests. The odds imply Zalal has a 79% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Errens is a Dutch kickboxer with solid power and some submission skills. All three of his UFC fights went the distance and after losing a pair of low-volume decisions in his first two Octagon appearances, he won a high-volume decision in his last outing, although still only scored 83 DraftKings points even with a knockdown and 105 significant strikes landed. He’s gone 0 for 7 on his takedown attempts in the UFC, while he’s been prone to getting taken down and controlled and owns just a 28% takedown defense. Now he’s facing an opponent in Zalal who’s never been finished and who only averages 1.73 SSA/min. That makes it tougher to see many ways for Errens to score well, although at his dirt-cheap price tag he would still be in the value play discussion even without a big score. And if we get another slate where favorites smash, Errens could still potentially be in play even in a loss, although that’s always an unlikely scenario. The odds imply Errens has a 21% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Karl Williams

4th UFC Fight (3-0)

Williams has won three straight decisions against a series of strikers since joining the UFC. The most recent of those wins came against Justin Tafa, who Williams took down seven times on 12 attempts and controlled for 10 and a half minutes. Williams also outlanded Tafa 40-21 in significant strikes and 123-27 in total strikes as he cruised to a decision win. Prior to that, Williams defeated Chase Sherman, who was then immediately cut for the THIRD time. Williams was only able to get Sherman down once on 10 takedown attempts, despite Sherman coming into that fight with a 66% takedown defense. Before that, Williams dominated Lukasz Brzeski on the mat in his UFC debut as he landed eight takedowns on 13 attempts, while also tacking on a knockdown. Before making his debut, Williams won another wrestling-heavy decision, that time on DWCS, where Williams impressively moved up to Heavyweight on less than a week’s notice. In that fight, he easily defeated a former Penn State D-1 All-American Heavyweight wrestler on the mat for three rounds, landing all three of his takedown attempts with almost 11 minutes of control time. Williams was 30 lb lighter than his opponent in that match as he checked in at 233 lb. After the fight, they asked Williams if he wanted to stay at Heavyweight or drop back down, and he said he could do either but would rather move back down. Despite what he said at the time, he made his debut at Heavyweight and it appears he’ll stay there for the foreseeable future, at least as long as he keeps on winning.

Now 10-1 as a pro, Williams has three wins by KO/TKO and seven decision victories. His only career loss came in a 2021 R1 submission in his fourth pro fight. All three of his KO/TKO wins also occurred in round one, with two of those occurring in his first three pro matches. Six of his last seven fights ended in decision wins, with the one exception being a 2022 R1 TKO against a 9-8 opponent who came in on a five fight losing streak, with two of those losses occurring at 185 lb, and then never fought again after suffering his 6th straight loss. Williams made his pro debut at Heavyweight before dropping down to Light Heavyweight for his second fight. He remained at Light Heavyweight until his short notice DWCS appearance. He did miss weight trying to make Light Heavyweight in June 2022, so perhaps it wasn’t the easiest cut to make and he seems content staying at Heavyweight.

Overall, Williams is a solid wrestler but is still pretty new to MMA, and only turned pro in February 2021. He fought four times in 2021 and four more in 2022, so he’s no stranger to staying active. However, after fighting twice in the first half of 2023, he then had to undergo neck surgery following his win over Sherman. That forced him to the sidelines for the rest of the year, and during his time off he moved his camp to Las Vegas and is now training at Xtreme Couture and utilizing the UFC Performance Institute on a daily basis. He did say that after the surgery he’s now more confident with both his wrestling and striking, and he looked good in his return against Tafa. Williams largely relies on his wrestling to win fights, but he does have some power in his strikes and throws a dangerous lead left hook. However, it’s rare to see him put up big striking totals and he only averages 2.87 SSL/min and 1.70 SSA/min. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 19 of his 38 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while also successfully defending the only attempt against him. We’ve seen his high wrestling pace exhaust both him and his opponents at times, which is no surprise at Heavyweight. Considering he spent most of his career at Light Heavyweight, it should come as no surprise that he’s a little undersized at Heavyweight, but he has slowly been bulking up and weighed in at 246 lb for his last fight, after tipping the scale at 240 lb for his previous two and just 233 lb for his DWCS match.

Jhonata Diniz

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Diniz is coming off a second round knockout win in his UFC debut against a terrible Austen Lane, who was able to take Diniz down in the first round and control him for over four minutes. However, that only delayed the inevitable and Lane’s true colors came out in round two, where he failed to land his final three takedown attempts and was then knocked out. That was the first time that Diniz had been out of the first round, after he started his career off with six straight first round knockout wins after turning pro in May 2022. Just before making his UFC debut, he punched his ticket to the UFC with a knockout win on DWCS over Eduardo Neves, who was making his second appearance on DWCS, after getting submitted in the first round by Mick Parkin a year earlier. Prior to going on DWCS, Diniz took on an old, fat, balding bum who quit in the fight and now has three straight first round losses. Diniz’s third and fifth most recent wins were against opponents fighting for the first and only time as a pro and in between those he took on an undersized 1-0 opponent who dropped down to Light Heavyweight after getting knocked out by Diniz. In his May 2022 pro debut, Diniz took on a 22-23 opponent who came in on a five fight losing streak and then never fought again after getting knocked out by Diniz.

Now 7-0 as a pro, Diniz has six first round knockout wins and another in round two. However, take his finishes with a grain of salt as he’s exclusively been facing a very low level of competition.

Overall, Diniz is the latest kickboxer to come over to MMA and still has very limited experience outside of striking. He’s just a BJJ blue belt and offers nothing in terms of grappling. And considering he’s never been past the midway point of the second round in an MMA fight, his cardio remains a question mark. While he doesn’t look like a world class striker, he’s a Muay Thai black belt and seems pretty dangerous on the feet. However, his striking defense looks kind of suspect and we expect to see some serious growing pains from Diniz once he begins facing legitimate competition. He’ll get the toughest test of his career here.

Fight Prediction:

Diniz will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 79” reach.

This is a nightmare matchup for Diniz, who is a dangerous but one-dimensional striker. We just saw him get taken down and controlled by a terrible Austen Lane, so just imagine what an actual wrestler like Williams will do to him. Diniz will always have a puncher’s chance whenever the fight is standing, but Williams has never been knocked out and should be able to take Diniz down at will. However, Williams hasn’t looked like much of a finisher and it’s far more likely he grinds out another wrestling-heavy decision win opposed to getting Diniz out of there early.

Our favorite bet here is “Karl Williams KO or DEC” at -155.

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DFS Implications:

Williams is a relentless wrestler who has shown the ability to put up outlandish takedown numbers when given the right matchup. He notched eight takedowns and a knockdown in his UFC debut, and seven takedowns in his last fight, although only landed 1 of his 10 takedown attempts in his other match. Despite all three of his UFC fights going the distance, he still averaged 106 DraftKings points and 87 points on FanDuel in those wins. His style of fighting is a much better fit for the DraftKings scoring system compared to FanDuel’s. His last win was good for 117 DraftKings points but only 91 points on FanDuel, while he scored 130 DraftKings points and 103 points on FanDuel in his UFC debut. So he’s still shown some scoring potential on FanDuel through sheer takedown volume, but his ceiling has been far more impressive on DraftKings. Now he’s facing a one-dimensional kickboxer and we expect Williams to find a good amount of wrestling success. However, if he just lays on Diniz for three rounds, there’s no guarantee that he’ll return value at his expensive price tag and Diniz is a dangerous enough striker that Williams will be at risk of getting knocked out anytime this fight is standing. So we definitely can’t call Williams a lock to end up in the DraftKings optimal lineup, but on a slate this bad he looks like the closest thing to it. The odds imply Williams has a 64% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Diniz is a one-dimensional kickboxer who will be reliant on landing well timed knockouts to score well in DFS. In his recent UFC debut, he saw the second round for the first time in his career and only scored 91 DraftKings points in a R2 KO after getting controlled on the mat for all of round one. All six of his other MMA fights ended in first round knockout wins, leaving questions surrounding his cardio. He’s shown no sort of wrestling ability and this looks like a nightmare matchup for him against a dominant wrestler. That should limit the number of opportunities that Diniz has to land the knockout that he needs to pull off the upset and Williams has never been finished by strikes. However, if Diniz can get him out of there, even with a poorly timed finish he would still likely end up in winning lineups at this cheap price tag. Therefore, this looks like a good fight to target and whoever wins will likely end up in the winning DraftKings lineup. The odds imply Diniz has a 36% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Karol Rosa

10th UFC Fight (6-3)

Continuing to trade wins and losses over her last six fights, Rosa is coming off a super high-volume three-round decision loss to Irene Aldana, where Rosa finished ahead 204-145 in significant strikes. Rosa battered Aldana’s lead leg from start to finish, landing a ridiculous 95 leg kicks in the fight. However, after losing the first round on all three scorecards, Aldana bounced back to win each of the later rounds to take a unanimous 29-28 decision and Rosa walked away from the fight battered and bloodied in one of the wildest WMMA fights we’ve ever seen. That fight took place at 135 lb, after Rosa’s previous two fights were both at 145 lb. Rosa stepped into the most recent of those 145 lb fights on short notice and won a split decision over Yana Santos, despite finishing behind in significant strikes 95-66, in total strikes 151-117, and in control time 3:53-0:41. It was not an impressive performance at all. Prior to that, Rosa lost a low-volume decision to Norma Dumont, where Rosa was moving up to 145 lb for the first time in the UFC. In a painfully slow paced match, Rosa only landed single digit significant striking totals in each the first two rounds, before picking up the pace some in round three and knocking Dumont down late in the fight. However, it was too little, too late and Dumont had already won the first two rounds to get her hand raised by the judges. Dumont finished ahead just 35-33 in significant strikes. It was surprising to see Rosa move up a weight class, considering she was coming off a win and had only lost once in six Octagon appearances at 135 lb. Just before losing to Dumont, Rosa won a majority decision win over an aging Lina Lansberg, although did notably get dropped by Lansberg in the fight. That came just after Rosa suffered her first UFC loss in a smothering decision defeat against another aging fighter in Sara McMann. Leading up to that loss, Rosa had won six straight fights after getting submitted by Melissa Gatto before they joined the UFC. All nine of Rosa’s UFC fights have gone the distance (6-3) and the last time she finished an opponent was in a 2019 R3 TKO just before joining the organization. Three of Rosa’s nine UFC decisions were split, with her winning all of those.

Now 17-6 as a pro, Rosa has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and 11 decision victories. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, and has four decision losses. Both of her submission losses came in 2018, one of those was against Melissa Gatto, who’s now in the UFC, and the other was against Larissa Pacheco, who had just been released by the UFC and is now preparing to fight Cris Cyborg in the PFL. While all nine of Rosa’s UFC fights have gone the distance, her seven fights just before joining the UFC all ended early (5-2). However, only two of her 23 pro fights ended in the first round and only one of her last 20.

Overall, Rosa has been kind of a tale of two fighters. She started off her UFC career as a super high-volume striker, landing 120 or more significant strikes in three of her first four UFC fights. However, she was then involved in four straight low-volume affairs, where she finished with significant striking totals of just 26, 54, 33, and 66. We were about ready to write her off for dead at that point, before she exploded for 204 significant strikes landed in her last fight in a vintage Rosa performance—albeit one she lost. Despite having several lower volume fights, she still averages 6.34 SSL/min (most on the slate) and 4.78 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate). She’s also shown the ability to wrestle offensively, although she’s struggled with her defensive wrestling and with being controlled along the fence at times. In her nine UFC fights, Rosa landed 11 of her 24 takedown attempts (45.8% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 6 of their 19 attempts (68.4% defense). The only fighter to get her down more than once was former Olympic wrestler Sara McMann, who landed four takedowns on six attempts in a decision win over Rosa. It will be interesting to see if we can get a second straight inspired performance from Rosa here.

Pannie Kianzad

11h UFC Fight (5-5)

Fresh off a first round submission loss to Macy Chiasson, Kianzad has dropped two straight and three of her last four fights. Interestingly, her UFC career has been bookended by a pair of submission losses, both against Macy Chiasson. The first was in 2018 in the The Ultimate Fighter finale. Kianzad then won a decision on the regional scene, before the UFC brought her back in 2019. Kianzad then fought to eight more decisions (5-3), leading up to her recent early loss. Her only win in her last four fights came against a 40-year-old Lina Lansberg in April 2022. Kianzad then lost a wrestling-heavy decision to Ketlen Vieira in her second most recent fight. Vieira was able to take Kianzad down on all three of her attempts and control her for nearly 11 minutes in a very slow paced fight. Six of Kianzad’s last seven opponents were able to get her down, with the one exception being Lansberg, who did land a knockdown but no takedowns.

Now 16-8 as a pro, Kianzad has three wins by TKO and 13 decision victories. Her three finishes all occurred in her first six pro fights from 2012 to 2014 against two debuting opponents and another that was just 1-1. Kianzad also has one TKO loss on her record (R2 2015), to go along with three submission defeats (R1 2017, R2 2018 & R1 2024), and four decision losses. While she’s been to 17 decisions in her career, not one of those was split on the scorecards.

Overall, Kianzad is a decision grinder who hasn’t finished anybody in any of her last 18 fights, but does occasionally get submitted herself. She lands a decent amount of striking volume (4.74 SSL/min), but only landed 4 of her 12 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy) in her 10 UFC fights. On the other side of things, her opponents got her down on 10 of their 30 attempts (66.7% defense), but six of her last seven opponents got her down at least once. Leading up to this fight, Kianzad moved from Denmark to Las Vegas and is now training at Xtreme Couture. Despite turning pro all the way back in 2012, she’s still only 32 years old, so it will be interesting to see what if any improvements she’s made with a new team around her.

Fight Prediction:

Kianzad will have a 2” height advantage, but Rosa will have a 1” reach advantage and is three years younger than the 32-year-old Kianzad.

This has the potential to be a fun striking battle, but both of these two have also struggled with being controlled at times, so either one of them could look to capitalize on that. Rosa looks like the better wrestler and is also the higher volume striker, which gives her multiple ways to win this fight. While Kianzad has the ability to keep it close, it’s tougher to see many clear paths to victory for her. Sure it’s possible that she lands a takedown and does enough to squeak out a close decision, but we like Rosa to get her hand raised far more often than not in this matchup and Rosa by decision will be the pick.

Our favorite bet here is “Karol Rosa DEC” at -115.

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DFS Implications:

Rosa has averaged 100 DraftKings points in her six UFC wins, but has been inconsistent in her last several outings. She’s just 2-3 in her last five fights and both of those wins came in split decisions against older opponents. However, we saw a vintage performance from her in her last fight, albeit in a loss, which is encouraging for her chances here. She landed an insane 204 significant strikes in that defeat and still scored 82 DraftKings points. While we certainly shouldn’t expect her to land nearly as much volume here, she has multiple ways to score well without a finish, whether it be through her striking or wrestling. Rosa averages 6.34 SSL/min (most on the slate) and can also mix in takedowns, while she’s reasonably priced on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Kianzad couldn’t finish a hot meal, so Rosa will also be at no risk of getting finished, making her a great play in all contest types and a core piece in low-risk lineups. The odds imply Rosa has a 65% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

Kianzad failed to top 81 DraftKings points in any of her five UFC wins, which all ended in decisions. She hasn’t finished an opponent since her sixth pro fight back in 2014, which ended in a third round TKO, and hasn’t shown any sort of finishing upside in the UFC. So her ceiling is automatically capped, but she should have a decent floor in this matchup, as Rosa has also never finished anybody in the UFC and averages 4.78 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate). We normally have almost no interest in playing Kianzad in DFS, but on this tiny slate there aren’t many dogs to choose from and Kianzad is also one of the few fighters that will be low owned. So if she can somehow pull off the upset and score 80 points or whatever in a decision, she could still be very useful. While we’re expecting her to lose a decision, she still has a shot at proving us wrong and you’ll definitely want to have exposure to both sides of this fight. The odds imply Kianzad has a 35% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Charalampos Grigoriou

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Grigoriou will be looking to bounce back from a rough decision loss in his recent UFC debut against Chad Anheliger. Grigoriou was able to land four takedowns in the first two rounds, but didn’t do much with them and instead just gassed himself out in the process. Anheliger did a good job of beating up Grigoriou’s lead leg and finished ahead 85-21 in significant strikes and 144-26 in total strikes. The only thing missing for Anheliger was a late finish and Grigoriou was running on fumes in the third round. Prior to that, Grigoriou landed a quick 60 second knockout win on DWCS and leading up to his recent decision loss Grigoriou’s had five straight fights end in KO/TKOs, with him winning the last four of those. Just before going on DWCS, he landed a fifth round leg kick TKO against an unimpressive 6-5 opponent on the Massachusetts regional scene. Before that, Grigoriou had been competing with the CCFC organization, where he landed two more knockouts in 2021 and 2022, after suffering a 2021 R3 standing TKO loss against UFC fighter Christian Rodriguez, who dominated the fight from start to finish. That was Grigoriou’s second straight loss at the time after he dropped a decision before that and he’s only 4-3 in his last seven fights.

Now 8-4 as a pro, Grigoriou has six KO/TKO wins, and two decision victories. Four of his finishes ended in round one, another came in round two, with the final one occurring in round five. He has one R3 TKO loss and three decision defeats. While Grigoriou did face Christian Rodriguez on the regional scene, most of his other opponents were pretty low level and only four of his eight career wins came against opponents with winning records (2-1, 3-0, 6-5, 8-3). Grigoriou started his career at 145 lb, before dropping down to 135 lb in his third pro fight.

Overall, Grigoriou is a striker from Cyprus who trains at Serra-Longo in New York. He’s a karate black belt and also has kickboxing experience, but is only a BJJ purple belt. He will mix in takedowns, but hasn't looked like any sort of submission threat on the mat. Grigoriou has decent power and mixes in leg kicks well, but often slows down late in fights and has dubious cardio. He’s also fairly hittable and Christian Rodriguez put on a striking clinic against him. He looked terrible in his recent UFC debut and Grigoriou still needs to prove he can hang at the UFC level. He’ll get a step down in competition here against a one-dimensional grappler.

Toshiomi Kazama

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Still in search of his first UFC win, Kazama is just under a year removed from his second straight first round KO/TKO loss. His most recent loss came against Garrett Armfield, who outlanded Kazama 45-15 in significant strikes and also stuffed both of Kazama’s takedown attempts. That came after Kazama was knocked out in just 33 seconds by Rinya Nakamura in the Road to UFC finals and Kazama has been knocked out in under six minutes in three of his last four fights with the one exception being a grappling-heavy decision win in the Road to UFC quarterfinals. He then had his opponent drop out in the semi-finals, allowing him to automatically advance to the finals against Nakamura. Kazama only turned pro in 2020, and after losing a decision in his debut he somehow rattled off nine straight wins, with eight of those wins ending early. That probably speaks more to the level of competition he had been facing than anything else.

Now 10-4 as a pro, Kazama has three wins by TKO, five submissions, and two decision victories. All three of his TKO wins occurred in his first five pro fights and his last four finishes all ended in first round submission. Of his eight total finishes, six ended in round one, one came in the first half of round two, and the other occurred in the opening minute of round three in his first pro win. His last seven finishes all occurred in a round and a half or less, with six of those ending in round one. On the other side of things, he’s been knocked out three times and has one decision loss. Two of his knockout losses ended in round one and the other came six seconds into round two. Kazama started his pro career at 145 lb and even had a fight at 155 lb, but has been at 135 lb since 2021.

Overall, Kazama is a one-dimensional Japanese grappler who made the business decision to transition from traditional grappling to MMA back in 2020. He started training in judo as a child and is also a BJJ brown belt, but he offers very little in terms of striking and he only landed 25 significant strikes in his last decision win. While he’s solid on the ground, his offensive wrestling leaves something to be desired and his striking defense is horrendous. In his last three fights, he landed just 2 of his 15 takedown attempts (13.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on one of their three attempts (66.7% defense). Anytime fights are standing he’s at imminent risk of being knocked out and he lacks any sort of head movement. In fairness to him, he’s still only 27 years old and maybe he’s made some improvements in his year away.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’7”, but Kazama will have a 2” reach advantage and is five years younger than the 32-year-old Grigoriou.

This is a low-level fight between a striker with cardio concerns and a grappler with no striking defense. Grigoriou throws with enough power that he’ll have a good shot at landing an early knockout and his takedown defense has held up pretty well in his last few fights, which is encouraging for his ability to keep the fight standing. However, he’s also not a guy you want to be laying heavy chalk on and he comes from a striking background. So even though he trains at a gym with several UFC grapplers, we still don’t trust him on the mat and there’s always a chance that Kazama could lock up a submission or even ride out a decision win if he can turn this into a grappling battle. However, it’s even harder to trust Kazama, who seems like he shows up to fights with the goal of being knocked out. The most likely outcome is that Grigoriou knocks Kazama out early, but we won’t be shocked if Grigoriou finds a way to lose in one of the easier matchups the UFC could give him.

Our favorite bet here is “Grigoriou/Kazama Under 1.5 Rounds” at +120.

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DFS Implications:

Grigoriou was exposed in his recent UFC debut where he gassed out after a half-hearted attempt at pretending to possess some semblance of a ground game. He also did nothing to impress us on the regional scene before that and the one time he faced a legitimate opponent he got absolutely smoked. While he will mix in takedown attempts, he hasn’t shown any sort of submission game, and is typically looking for control and ground and pound on the mat. And while Grigoriou landed four straight KO/TKO wins leading up to his debut, those were all against pretty suspect competition. However, he’s facing a pretty suspect opponent here in Kazama, who’s been knocked out in three of his last four fights. This is a good spot for Grigoriou to land a knockout if he can keep the fight standing and Kazama has an absolutely terrible striking defense. However, Kazama is a good grappler if he can get the fight to the mat, he just doesn't have very good wrestling. So it’s unlikely that Grigoriou will be looking for takedowns in this matchup. And considering that Grigoriou has gassed out at multiple times in the past, he looks reliant on landing an early knockout to score well. The odds imply Grigoriou has a 69% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.

Kazama is a one-dimensional grappler who’s lack of striking and durability is extremely concerning. However, he still has finishing upside when/if he can get fights to the mat, and also has the ability to win a wrestling-heavy decision. Between his two UFC fights, he only scored a combined eight DraftKings points, showing just how non-existent his scoring floor is. However, both of those were tougher matchups than this one and we’re not sold on Grigoriou. So while Kazama will be at risk of getting knocked out quickly once again, he does have decent scoring upside if he can somehow avoid that seemingly inevitable outcome. While Grigoriou has never been submitted, he’s been prone to gassing out and is just 2-3 with the judges. There’s definitely a world where Kazama survives early and then either finds a finish or grinds out a wrestling-heavy decision. And at his cheap price tag, even an average scoring victory could be enough for him to end up in winning lineups. The odds imply Kazama has a 31% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Yana Santos

10th UFC Fight (4-5)

Santos has lost three straight fights, with the last of those ending in a July 2023 questionable split decision against Karol Rosa. Santos outlasted Rosa 95-66 in significant strikes and 151-117 in total strikes, while also finishing ahead in control time 3:53-0:41. Rosa was able to take Santos down once, which was the only statistical category she finished ahead in. Santos had originally been scheduled to face Macy Chiasson there, but Chiasson dropped out and Rosa was announced as the replacement two weeks out, which is why the fight took place at 145 lb instead of 135 lb, where Santos normally competes. Just before that, Santos lost a smothering decision to Holly Holm, where Holm took Santos down four times and controlled her for nearly 10 minutes. Santos had a baby just before her March 2023 loss to Holm, after she got knocked out by Irene Aldana in the first round of July 2021 fight. Prior to the trio of losses, Santos had won a pair of clinch/grappling-heavy decisions, after getting finished with ground and pound in the third round of a 2019 match against Aspen Ladd. Santos also got finished with ground and pound in the first round of her 2018 UFC debut against Cris Cyborg, so it’s been an ongoing weakness for her. Her last win came in a close/controversial February 2021 decision against Ketlen Vieira, who took Santos down three times and controlled her for eight and a half minutes, but didn’t land many ground strikes and the judges gave the fight to Santos, who never stopped landing rabbit punches while being controlled.

Now 14-8 as a pro, Santos has seven wins by TKO, one submission, and six decision victories. All eight of her early wins came in her first 11 pro fights from 2009 to 2016 and she doesn’t have any finishes in the UFC or even in her Invicta days just before that—although her last finish did come against a UFC fighter in Wu Yanan, back in 2016. Her first seven early wins ended in round one, while she finished Yanan 32 seconds into round two. Her last five wins all ended in decisions. However, five of her last seven losses ended early, with three knockouts and two submissions. Three of those ended in round one, one came in round two, and the other was in round three. Her other three losses went the distance, but she won six of the last eight decisions she’s been to. Kunitskaya started her pro career at 145 lb and even once fought as high as 154 lb. However, she had been competing at 135 lb since 2016, before taking her last fight at 145 lb. Now she’ll be returning to 135 lb.

Overall, Santos typically comes in with the game plan of controlling opponents along the fence and making fights ugly. In her four UFC wins, she finished with control time totals of 5:09, 13:16, 2:51, and 9:53, while in her five losses, she finished with control time totals of 3:53, 1:19, 0:11, 3:52, 2:21. She’s been prone to getting knocked down, taken down, and finished with ground and pound on the mat. She’s been taken down 12 times on 21 opponent attempts (42.9% defense), and all but one of the opponents to try and take her down have been successful. On the other side of things, Santos landed 8 of her 15 takedown attempts (53.3% accuracy), but has only landed one takedown in her last six fights, and failed to attempt a takedown in five of those matches. Santos only averages 4.16 SSL/min, and failed to land more than 47 significant strikes in five of her last six matches. However, she’s also been facing a lot of really tough opponents and will get a step down in competition here.

Chelsea Chandler

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Chandler is coming off a unanimous 29-28 decision win over an undersized Josiane Nunes, who Chandler was able to take down twice on two attempts and control for seven minutes. Chandler also finished ahead 58-47 in significant strikes and 100-49 in total strikes, but Nunes was clipping her at times on the feet. That was Chandler's first UFC fight down at 135 lb, although she missed weight by a pound trying to cut down. Prior to that, Chandler had a five fight winning streak snapped in a decision loss to a really tough/big Norma Dumont, in a fight that took place at 145 lb. Dumont had Chandler hurt and literally sprinting away from her early in the fight, but Chandler was able to hang on and survive to see the scorecards. Prior to that loss at 145 lb, Chandler landed a first round ground and pound TKO in her UFC debut against Julija Stoliarenko in a 140 lb Catchweight match. Stoliarenko cut all the way down to 125 lb after that loss, while Chandler’s last two fights before joining the UFC were both at 145 lb, after her first three pro fights took place at 135 lb.

Now 6-2 as a pro, Chandler has two wins by TKO, one submission, and three decision victories. All three of her finishes ended in the first two rounds, with her last two finishes ending in round one. She’s never been finished herself but has two decision losses.

Overall, Chandler is a brawling bully who will throw down on the feet but also looks to take opponents down and finish them on the mat, typically with ground and pound. She’s still really green, but has spent time training at Tiger Muay Thai as well as the Nick Diaz Academy, and Cesar Gracie Jiu Jitsu, as she fights out of Stockton, California. She’s only a BJJ purple belt, but uses her strength well in the grappling exchanges. She’s a bit of a brute and kind of lumbering with her striking. She can get pretty reckless on the feet, but has decently heavy hands and can do damage when she lands, while also throwing a good amount of volume. She’ll also drop thudding elbows and punches on the mat and looks to inflict damage when she lands. However, her striking defense is terrible and she just runs away from opponents in a panic after being hurt. In her three UFC fights, she landed three of her five takedown attempts (60% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 4 of their six attempts (33.3% defense). Chandler said that she weighs around 165 lb on fight night, so she’s cutting a good amount of weight to get down to 135 lb and she’s always someone to monitor closely on the scale. UPDATE: Chandler missed weight by 5 lb!

Fight Prediction:

Chandler will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 68” reach.

This is an interesting one after Chandler missed weight by a ridiculous five pounds. Chandler is huge for the 135 lb division and has said she walks around at 165 lb, leaving the cut down to 135 lb as borderline impossible for her and the UFC got rid of the 145 lb division. She missed weight for her last fight as well and still went on to win, although she only missed by a pound last time. She didn’t look depleted or terrible on the scale, so maybe she didn’t even try to get close to 135 lb and only cut the bare minimum where the fight would still be allowed to continue. That’s a bold strategy, but she’s a bold gal and we certainly can’t rule it out. If that is what she did, then the extra size could help her in the wrestling exchanges and her cardio and durability shouldn’t be negatively impacted. However, if she did make more of an effort to cut weight and her body just wasn’t allowing her to, then we could see that negatively impact her in the fight. We lean towards her not even really trying to hit 135 lb, but all we can do is speculate. Anyways, looking beyond the weight miss, Santos generally likes to hold opponents up against the fence and we’ve seen Chandler struggle in that position at times in the past, which creates a clear path for Santos to grind out a decision win in the clinch. However, Santos has also struggled with being taken down and finished with ground and pound, an area that Chandler excels in. So each fighter has a clear path to victory and it will likely just come down to who wins the clinch and wrestling exchanges. While it’s hard to be confident in either of these two, we’ll say that Chandler is able to get the fight to the mat at some point and finish Santos with ground and pound.

Our favorite bet here is “Chelsea Chandler KO” at +800.

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DFS Implications:

Santos generally accrues large amounts of control time and clinch strikes in her wins, which has allowed her to score well on DraftKings in those victories, but not on FanDuel. She averaged 101 DraftKings points in her four UFC decision wins, scoring anywhere from 82 to 119 points and showing both a solid floor and ceiling. However, she’s never finished anybody in the UFC, is on a three fight skid, and has yet to win a fight since coming back in 2023 after having a baby. And she easily could be on a four-fight losing streak if a close 2021 decision against Ketlen Vieira had not gone her way. Nevertheless, she’s getting a step down in competition here against an opponent who has struggled with being controlled along the fence at times. So it’s not a terrible spot for Santos to grind out a decision win and Chandler has also looked very hittable if Santos decides to open things up a little. Santos was finished in five of her eight career losses, which leaves her with an uncertain scoring floor, but at her reasonable price tag she could easily sneak into the winning DraftKings lineup in a decision win. We’re far less excited about playing her on FanDuel though. The odds imply Santos has a 57% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

Chandler’s aggressive fighting style is great for DFS and she’s looking to brawl on the feet and take opponents down and finish them on the mat. We saw that play out in her UFC debut where she landed a first round ground and pound TKO and scored 111 points on DraftKings. However, she then lost her next fight in a tougher matchup, before scoring 84 DraftKings points in her recent decision win. A similar score here could still be enough for her to end up in winning lineups on this smaller slate and at her cheap price tag, but she’s definitely been inconsistent and is still very green in MMA. That leaves her with a wide range of scoring outcomes and when she’s able to overpower her opponents she can bully her way to wins, but when she can’t, she turns into a meme. There’s the potential for her to get controlled along the cage for extended periods of time in this matchup, but Santos has also been prone to getting taken down and finished, which is great for Chandler’s scoring upside. There’s a good chance that whoever wins this fight will find their way into the optimal DraftKings lineup and Chandler is also a good play on FanDuel due to her finishing upside. The odds imply Chandler has a 43% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Chris Gutierrez

13th UFC Fight (8-3-1)

Gutierrez had been scheduled to fight Javid Basharat here, but Basharat dropped out and Le was announced as the replacement on Tuesday.

Gutierrez will be looking to bounce back from a one-sided five-round decision loss to Song Yadong, who won every round of the fight. We saw a surprising amount of wrestling from Song, who took Gutierrez down twice and controlled him for 11 minutes. Gutierrez actually finished ahead 87-77 in significant strikes, but Song led in total strikes 160-105, in what was more of a tactical battle. Amazingly, of Gutierrez’s 87 significant strikes landed, 76 were leg kicks. Just eight weeks before that loss, Gutierrez won a dominant three-round decision over Alatengheili, where Gutierrez finished ahead in significant strikes 110-38 and won every round on every scorecard. That matchup got put together on short notice after both Gutierrez and Alatengheili had their original opponents drop out. Prior to that win, Gutierrez lost a decision to longtime UFC veteran and fellow calf kicker Pedro Munhoz, which snapped an eight-fight unbeaten streak for Gutierrez. You have to go all the way back to Gutierrez’s 2018 UFC debut to find his third most recent loss, when he was submitted in the second round by Raoni Barcelos. Gutierrez landed a pair of KO/TKOs just before losing to Munhoz, after four of his first five UFC wins went the distance, with the one exception being a 2020 leg kick TKO win against Vince Morales. Gutierrez also has a 2020 draw against Cody Durden on his record and 8 of his last 11 fights went the distance (5-2-1). His only UFC fight to end in the first round was when he knocked out a half retired Frankie Edgar.

Now 20-6-2 as a pro, Gutierrez has nine wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and 10 decision victories. Seven of his nine KO/TKO wins occurred in the later rounds, and he tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on, largely by chipping away at their legs. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once to go along with five decision losses and two draws.

Overall, Gutierrez is a one-dimensional striker who’s known for his violent leg kicks, but will also mix in knees and spinning elbows/backfists. Despite being a BJJ brown belt, he doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling and in his 12 UFC fights he only landed three takedowns on 10 attempts (30% accuracy). However, his takedown defense has been pretty decent and he’s only given up 13 takedowns on 42 opponent attempts (69% defense). He has really good footwork and movement that makes him a tough guy to hit and he averages 4.80 SSL/min and just 2.79 SSA/min. Larger cages will generally benefit him, but this next fight will take place in the smaller cage at the Apex. Gutierrez has good cardio and trains at elevation with Factory X, and will fight alongside his teammate Youssef Zalal on this card.

Quang Le

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Le will be making his UFC debut on just a few days’ notice, but he had at least been preparing to go on DWCS next month. Le is four months removed from a first round knockout win, but he was notably getting his lead leg chewed up before he found the finish. That was his second straight first round KO/TKO win with the LFA, after he stole a split decision in front of his home Minnesota crowd in a fight where he was taken down 10 times and controlled for almost the entire time. The broadcast was already talking about how Le’s undefeated record was coming to an end and Le was among the many that were shocked that the decision went his way. He also got controlled for extended periods of time in his fight just before that, where his opponent gassed out and Le was able to lock up a late third round submission.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Le has two wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and three decision victories. Four of his five finishes came in the first round, with the other ending in round three. Just keep in mind, he’s been fighting a pretty low-level of competition and should have lost the last decision he went to.

Overall, is a Vietnamese striker who trains in Minnesota with John Castaneda, who is typically in Le’s corner. While Le will look for submissions on the mat, he isn’t a great wrestler and has been prone to being controlled. He got dominated on the mat in his last decision and anyone who can wrestle will give him serious problems. He also looks vulnerable to getting his lead leg attacked, which is far from ideal for this next matchup against one of the best leg kickers in the Bantamweight division. Nothing we’ve seen from Le has been overly impressive, and while he’s an okay striker, even there he won’t blow anyone away. He’s already 32 years old, so he’s not especially young either, and we don’t expect to see drastic improvements from him. It looks like he was just a warm body who was available to step in on short notice to try and help salvage this dumpster fire of a card.

Fight Prediction:

Gutierrez will have a 3” height advantage, but Le will have a 3” reach advantage.

Le couldn’t have asked for a much tougher spot to be making his UFC debut, as he steps in on a few days’ notice to face a fringe top 15 opponent. And on the flipside, it’s a massive step down in competition for Gutierrez, who’s coming off a loss to the #8 ranked Song Yadong and will now face a short notice debuter. It would be utterly shocking to see Le pull off the upset and the only question we have is whether or not Gutierrez can find a finish. Eight of his last 11 fights went the distance, but he did land three KO/TKO wins over that stretch as well. Le has looked vulnerable to having his lead leg attacked, which is what Gutierrez is known for. While leg kick TKOs are rare and hard to predict, this is as good a spot as any to see one. Gutierrez will also mix in flying knees and spinning back fists, which are how he landed his other two UFC finishes, so all of his early UFC wins have been from low percentage attacks. That makes it hard to be confident in his ability to put anyone away early and the odds indicate that Gutierrez’s most likely path to victory is by decision. We don’t disagree with that, but he’ll have a decent shot at landing a round two or three TKO. Either way, Gutierrez should cruise here.

Our favorite bet here is “Gutierrez/Le Fight Ends in R2” at +500.

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DFS Implications:

Gutierrez was originally set to face Javid Basharat as a +195 underdog, but that fight was canceled a few hours before DraftKings released pricing and they lazily put out the slate ignoring the news. So then when Gutierrez found a new opponent, his price was already locked in at 7K, despite now being the biggest favorite on the card. Good job guys. FanDuel followed suit and Gutierrez is massively mispriced on both sites, taking a terrible slate and making it one of the worst of all time. Nevertheless, it’s still a slate, so we’ll still look for edges on how to beat it. The most obvious one is fading Gutierrez in tournaments. He only averaged 70 DraftKings points in his five UFC decision wins, failing to top 75 points in any of those. This fight is expected to go the distance more often than not according to the odds (-175), while Gutierrez’s ownership projects to be above 50%. Easy enough. The only concern is that this slate is so small and Gutierrez is so cheap that even with a 75 point decision win he could still sneak into the optimal lineup. And if he lands a finish, he’s basically a lock to be in the winner. The other strategy you can take is to play Gutierrez but leave a bunch of salary on the table to reduce dupes. The downside there is that Gutierrez and whatever other cheap fighters you play will need to outscore everyone else you could have played above them, and we just talked about how low Gutierrez’s ceiling has been in decision wins, so you would likely need a finish from him. You can also try to surround Gutierrez with low-owned fighters to reduce dupes, but ultimately there just aren’t enough fighters on the card for there to be many viable lower owned options. You obviously want to play Gutierrez in low-risk contests, that goes without saying. However, we can expect to see large splits in tournaments if he’s in the optimal lineup in this urinal of a slate—unless the winning lineup leaves a bunch of salary on the table or fades all of the other high-owned fighters. Because of that, it looks like a better week to play in smaller field contests than firing up 150 lineups in the big guy. The odds imply Gutierrez has an 83% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Le is coming off a pair of first round finishes, but overall has been largely unimpressive and is now making his UFC debut on a few days’ notice against an opponent who just headlined the last card he was on. You couldn’t ask for a much tougher spot and simply showing up on weight and making it to the fight would be an achievement. Asking him to win on top of that seems like a bit much and Gutierrez has never even been knocked out. So while Le would be an insanely amazing leverage play if he pulled off the miracle upset, we really don’t see it happening, and therefore don’t have much interest in playing him. He’s an average striker and a poor wrestler, who has never faced anyone close to as talented as Gutierrez. The odds imply Le has a 17% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Danny Barlow

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Barlow was originally scheduled to fight Uros Medic here, but Medic dropped out and Veretennikov was announced as the replacement just over two weeks out.

Coming off a third round TKO win in his recent UFC debut, Barlow handed Josh Quinlan the first early loss of his career. Barlow outlanded Quinlan 95-39 in significant strikes, despite breaking his arm late in round one. Barlow never looked to wrestle, while Quinlan failed to land his only takedown attempt. Prior to that, Barlow landed a quick first round TKO on DWCS, and he’s stopped his last four opponents with strikes.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Barlow has five KO/TKO wins, one submission, and two decision victories. The first six finishes of his career all ended in round one, while the most recent came in round three. He faced a lot of dubious competition on the regional scene, so take some of those early finishes with a grain of salt.

Overall, Barlow is a 29-year-old striker who only turned pro in October 2021. While he’s very athletic and has good size and length, he’s also still very green in MMA and doesn't offer much in the way of grappling. He’s just a BJJ blue belt and he almost got submitted in the first round of his last decision win against a 1-0 nobody. He does have a sharp left hand that he throws down the middle well from the southpaw stance, and has good speed and quickness. He’s been able to rely on his athleticism to keep his undefeated record intact to this point, but once he starts facing higher level opponents who know how to wrestle he’ll likely struggle. He stands pretty tall, which makes it harder to defend takedowns and is also pretty flatfooted. Barlow trains at an unknown gym called Law School MMA in Tennessee and doesn't have many if any UFC-level training partners to learn from, so we wonder about how he’ll develop in that environment.

Nikolay Veretennikov

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut on just over two weeks’ notice, Veretennikov has finished his last three opponents in the first two rounds, after losing a decision to Michael Morales on DWCS in 2021. His last two wins both ended in TKOs, but they were both arguably quick stoppages. The last of those was against a 35-year-old 5’10” former Lightweight who only weighed in at 167 lb. Leading up to those two TKOs, Veretennikov locked up the first submission win of his career, after suffering his loss to Morales on DWCS. Morales was able to take Veretennikov down four times in a lower volume decision, while Veretennikov failed to land any of his three takedown attempts. Just before that, Veretennikov landed a first round TKO against former UFC fighter Anthony Ivy.

Now 12-4 as a pro, Veretennikov has nine wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. However, both of his early losses came in his first four pro fights and he started his career off by going 1-3, but has now won 11 of his last 12 fights and hasn’t been finished since 2014.

Overall, Veretennikov is a decently well rounded fighter from Kazakhstan who trains at Kings MMA in California. He’s shown decent power in his striking and a willingness to look for takedowns, but he doesn’t stand out as being exceptional anywhere. He’s not the quickest and doesn’t push a high pace, while his wrestling hasn’t been anything to write home about. He’s already 34 years old, so he’s getting a late start in the UFC and he probably is who he is at this stage of his career.

Fight Prediction:

Barlow will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being five years younger than the 34-year-old Veretennikov.

Barlow is the quicker striker in this matchup, and also has a sizable reach advantage, which will make things tough for Veretennikov on the feet. And while Veretennikov would be wise to try and take the fight to the mat, his wrestling hasn’t been all that impressive. We expect Barlow to outland Veretennikov in the striking exchanges and he’ll have a good shot at knocking him out, although a decision win for Barlow wouldn’t be entirely shocking either. Either way, we’re taking Barlow here and we don’t believe that Veretennikov is the right fighter to fully expose Barlow’s poor ground game, although he could reveal a few cracks in the foundation.

Our favorite bet here is “Barlow/Veretennikov Fight Ends in KO” at -130.

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DFS Implications:

Barlow is coming off a third round TKO win in his UFC debut, here he scored 94 DraftKings points, but was arguably robbed of a second knockdown on the statsheet. He offers next to nothing when it comes to grappling and relies almost exclusively on his striking to win fights. That makes it hard for him to score well without a finish and he’ll need a well timed knockout here to return value at his high price tag. Working in his favor, he looks to be the faster and more athletic fighter in this matchup and Veretennikov stepped in on just over two weeks’ notice. Also encouraging for his chances of finding a finish, Barlow has landed four straight TKO finishes, with three of those ending in round one. However, we expect Barlow to be highly owned on this small slate, so if he does bust, there will be a lot of leverage to be gained in lineups that exclude him. The odds imply Barlow has a 75% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.

Veretennikov will be making his UFC debut on pretty short notice and had just over two weeks to prepare for this matchup. He’s somewhat well rounded, but hasn’t shown good enough wrestling to leave us confident in his ability to expose Barlow’s poor ground game. And while Veretennikov has decent power, he’ll be at a reach disadvantage and also looks to be the slower fighter in this matchup. That will make it hard for him to keep pace in a striking battle and we don’t see finding enough wrestling success to win a decision on the mat. Therefore, he looks reliant on landing an unlikely finish to pull off the upset against the undefeated Barlow. The odds imply Veretennikov has a 25% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Chepe Mariscal

4th UFC Fight (3-0)

Mariscal was originally scheduled to fight Dan Ige on July 20th, before Ige impulsively decided to fight Diego Lopes instead on just a couple of hours notice for UFC 303 after Brian Ortega dropped out the day of the event. Damon Jackson then filled the spot that Ige vacated in early July, but Mariscal asked that the fight be pushed back a few weeks, presumably so he could prepare for a completely different style of fighter in Jackson.

Mariscal is just four months removed from a close split-decision win over Morgan Charriere, who has made a career out of fighting to close split-decisions, with his last eight decisions somehow all being split (2-5-1). One judge scored all three rounds for Charriere, while the other two had Mariscal winning rounds one and three. It was definitely a close fight that was hard to score, but Mariscal finished ahead in significant strikes 71-49 and in total strikes 121-75, while Charriere led in takedowns 2-1. Both fighters secured a reversal and control time was almost dead even. That was Mariscal’s third straight upset win as a slight underdog in three UFC fights. Just before squeaking out the win over Charriere, Mariscal won in a R2 TKO via arm injury against Jack Jenkins. In fairness to Jenkines, he won the first round on all three scorecards before snapping his elbow backwards as he tried to post on his arm as Mariscal took him down in round two. Mariscal was winning the second round leading up to the injury, so the fight was essentially even before it was stopped. That came after Mariscal won a wild brawling decision in his short notice UFC debut against Trevor Peek, which Mariscal took up a weight class at 155 lb. Mariscal landed 4 of his 12 takedown attempts in that fight, controlled Peek for five and a half minutes, and outlanded him 71-51 in significant strikes and 145-65 in total strikes, while winning every round on the score cards. Even before joining the UFC, Mariscal had already competed against numerous UFC fighters on the regional scene. Some of those names include Sean Soriano, Steve Garcia, Joanderson Brito, Youssef Zalal, Pat Sabatini, Carl Deaton, Bryce Mitchell, and Gregor Gillespie. He went just 2-5 plus a No Contest in those fights and arguably could have lost both of those wins as they came in very close decisions against Sabatini and Zalal, but he nevertheless has a ton of experience facing UFC-level competition. Mariscal won a close, grappling-heavy split decision over Pat Sabatini back in 2018, showing that he could hang on the mat, but also somehow got held on his back for three rounds by an absolutely terrible grappler in Sean Soriano. The only explanation we can come up with is that Mariscal was not the same fighter after getting violently knocked out by Joanderson Brito in 2019, where the referee should have been sent to jail after allowing him to nearly get knocked out after an early low blow and then later get his lifeless body pounded into the mat before the fight was finally stopped. The aftermath was a scary scene as Mariscal tried to fight off his corner team for what felt like minutes after he finally woke up and literally had to be carried out of the cage as he continued to struggle. That loss likely took years off his life and began a stretch where he dropped three out of four fights. He then got back on track against some easier competition, and has now won six straight fights.

Now 16-6 as a pro, Mariscal has seven wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. His last four KO/TKO wins all occurred in round two, after two of his first three ended in round one, with the other coming in round four. All three of his submission wins occurred in the first round of fights earlier in his career (2014, 2016 & 2018). He has three KO/TKO losses on his record and three decision defeats. One of those TKOs came in a very questionable second round stoppage against Steve Garcia in 2020, with the other two coming in the first round against Gregor Gillespie in 2016 and Joanderson Brito in 2019. Two of his three decision losses were against Sean Soriano and Bryce Mitchell, so five of his six defeats were against fighters with UFC experience. Mariscal made his 2014 pro debut up at 170 lb, before dropping down to 155 lb for his next fight. He then moved down to 145 lb in 2016, where he’s spent most of his career. He did have a 155 lb fight in 2022 where he landed a second round TKO, before attempting to drop back down to 145 lb for his last fight before joining the UFC. However, he missed weight by 4 lb in that match, blaming the airlines for losing his weight cutting gear. He then took his UFC debut up at 155 lb, before moving back down to 145 for his second Octagon appearance, where he’s since successfully made weight in two straight fights.

Overall, Mariscal is an aggressive, well-rounded fighter with a ton of high-level experience. He’s a judo black belt and trains at Elevation Fight Team in Colorado with a lot of other UFC fighters, including Justin Gaethje, who’s one of his main training partners. He’s generally looking to mix in takedown attempts, and is a threat to finish fights on the mat, but doesn’t have the best top control and often loses positions. Between his three UFC fights, he landed 6 of his 21 takedown attempts (28.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down twice on six attempts (66.7% defense). He’s good at making fights ugly, pushing a pace, and beating opponents up out of the clinch. We’ve seen Mariscal look really good and really bad at times in the past, which adds some uncertainty with what version of him you’re going to get. However, he’s looked good since joining the UFC and is in the prime of his career, so maybe he finally has things figured out.

Damon Jackson

13th UFC Fight (6-4-1, NC)

Jackson recently snapped a two fight losing streak in a split decision win over Alexander Hernandez, who missed weight for the fight. Jackson leaned on his wrestling in the win, as he took Hernandez down three times on seven attempts and controlled him for over six minutes, landing a takedown in every round. Jackson also outlanded Hernandez 42-32 in significant strikes and 85-56 in total strikes. Prior to that, Jackson dropped a close decision to Billy Quarantillo. Jackson won the first round on all three scorecards, but then slowed down midway through round two and lost each of the later rounds. He was able to take Quarantillo once in each round, finishing with three takedowns on 13 attempts and over six minutes of control time, but Quarantillo finished ahead 100-67 in significant strikes. Just before that, Jackson had a four-fight winning streak snapped in a violent second round walk-off knockout at the hands of Dan Ige, who was coming off three straight losses. Jackson later revealed that he fought both that fight and the one before it with a torn pec, which helps to explain why he didn’t look to wrestle much against Ige. That injury was disguised in his previous win with a quick finish, as he landed a 69 second R1 TKO against Pat Sabatini, who was coming off six straight wins. That was Jackson’s first KO/TKO win since 2018 and only his second since 2013, as he’s primarily known for his submissions. Jackson has gone 7-3 in his last 10 fights, with his only other loss over that stretch ending in another violent knockout, that time against Ilia Topuria in the first round of a 2020 fight. Jackson originally joined the UFC in 2014 and did everything but win in his first three fights, notching a 0-1-1, NC record before getting cut following a 2016 draw. After getting dropped by the organization, Jackson fought 10 times outside of the UFC from 2016 to 2020, going 8-2 before getting called back up. In his September 2020 return to the organization, nearly five years after being released, Jackson pulled off the short notice upset in a comeback win against Mirsad Bektic. In a fight he was losing badly, Jackson landed a R3 guillotine to steal the victory and notch his first UFC win. He then got knocked out by Topuria, but bounced back with a decision win over Charles Rosa, a second round submission victory over Kamuela Kirk, and then a decision win over a debuting Dan Argueta, leading up to his first round TKO over Sabatini.

Now 23-6-1 as a pro, Jackson has four wins by KO/TKO, 15 submissions, and four decision victories. Three of his four knockout wins ended in round one, with the other occurring 33 seconds into round two. Of his 15 submissions, six ended in round one, eight came in round two, and one occurred in round three. Jackson has been finished in five of his six career losses, with four knockouts and one submission. He would have two submission losses, but a 2015 R1 submission defeat was later overturned to a No Contest when his opponent tested positive for a banned diuretic. Jackson’s only official submission loss came in his 2014 UFC debut against a striker in Yancy Medeiros. Fourteen of his last 18 fights ended early and he’s only been to six decisions in 31 pro fights (4-1-1). However, his last two and four of his last seven fights went the distance. Jackson started his career at 155 lb before dropping down to 145 lb in 2013.

Overall, Jackson is primarily a submission threat but has shown some improvements to his striking. He’s historically done a good job of wearing down his opponents, although we’ve seen him look tired in the third round of some of his recent fights and he just turned 36 years old on Thursday. His biggest weakness has been his chin and four of his last five losses ended in highlight knockouts. In his 12 UFC fights, Jackson landed 20 of his 56 takedown attempts (35.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 13 of their 22 attempts (40.9% defense). In his seven UFC fights where he landed a takedown, he went 5-1 plus a No Contest that was originally a loss, while he went just 1-3-1 in fights where he failed to land a takedown. Six of his opponents have tried to take him down, with five of them being successful, but Jackson still went 3-1-1 in fights where he gave up a takedown, showing that he really just wants to be on the mat, regardless of how it gets there. Jackson only averages 3.00 SSL/min and 3.29 SSA/min and it’s very rare to see big striking totals in his fights. Jackson opened up a satellite gym of Fortis MMA not too long ago, so he's been doing a lot of teaching and business owner type stuff lately, in addition to his own training.

Fight Prediction:

Jackson will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while Mariscal is five years younger than the 36-year-old Jackson.

Mariscal was somewhat fortunate to win each of his last two fights, but to his credit, his well-rounded uptempo style of fighting gives him every opportunity to win close fights. He can hang on both the feet and the mat and also has no problem using his cardio as a weapon. Jackson generally relies heavily on his grappling to win fights, but Mariscal will keep things competitive on the mat and will have the striking advantage whenever the fight is standing. And while Jackson has always prided himself on having a good gas tank, we give the cardio advantage to Mariscal. Jackson has been prone to getting finished throughout his career, and while Mariscal hasn’t looked like a huge finishing threat so far in the UFC, this is a pretty good spot for him to land a knockout and really make a name for himself after he was thrust into the co-main event slot during fight week. It certainly won’t be surprising if this simply ends in a wrestling-heavy decision, but we’ll say Mariscal knocks Jackson out in the second round.

Our favorite bet here is “Chepe Mariscal R2/3 KO” at +470.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.

DFS Implications:

Mariscal has had three UFC fights and pulled off upsets as a slight underdog in all three of those, averaging 99 DraftKings points in the process. Two of those fights went the distance, while the other ended in a freak injury TKO win. In the two decisions, Mariscal returned DraftKings scores of 85 and 108 points, while he put up 105 points in his lone finish. However, all three of those fights were against very durable opponents who had never been knocked out and now Mariscal will finally face someone who’s been more prone to being finished. Jackson has four knockout losses on his record and another by submission, while he’s been dropped in two of his last three fights. While Mariscal hasn’t looked like much of a knockout threat so far in the UFC, his last four wins before joining the organization all ended in TKOs. And if you combine Mariscal’s uptempo style with a well-timed finish, he could be looking at a huge score. He’s also shown a solid floor even in fights that go the distance, and while Jackson is a dangerous submission threat, Mariscal is a judo black belt who’s never been submitted. Jackson also has just a 40% takedown defense, providing yet another avenue for Mariscal to fill up the stat sheet. Despite the line moving in Jackson’s favor, Mariscal is still one of the better plays on the slate. The odds imply Mariscal has a 66% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.

Jackson has averaged 90 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, scoring 101 or more in three of those. However, he only returned totals of 82 and 80 points in his last two decision victories and it’s been almost two years since he finished anybody. While his last early win ended in a TKO, 15 of his 19 finishes have come by submission and he’s not much of a knockout threat. Now he’s facing a judo black belt who’s never been submitted, so this isn’t a great spot for Jacksin to find a finish. That likely leaves Jackson reliant on dominating Mariscal on the mat to pull off the upset, and Mariscal has shown pretty decent grappling, which makes that less likely. The line has been moving in Jackson’s favor, which should drive his ownership up some, thus lowering his tournament appeal. However, at his cheap price tag and in an uptempo matchup, if he does win, he’ll have a really good shot at ending up in tournament winning lineups on this small slate. The odds imply Jackson has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Serghei Spivac

12th UFC Fight (7-4)

Spivac is 11 months removed from a second round TKO loss to Ciryl Gane, who dominated the fight on the feet and finished ahead 109-11 in significant strikes, while Spivac failed to land his only official takedown attempt. Spivac did try to look for entries into the grappling at a couple of other points, but didn’t even get close enough for those to register as actual takedown attempts. And once he realized he couldn’t get the fight to the ground he just hung out on the outside eating shots and shelling up until the ref eventually stopped the fight in a standing TKO in the back half of round two. Just before that, Spivac headlined another card, where he submitted Derrick Lewis three minutes into the first round of a February 2023 matchup. Spivac relentlessly chain wrestled Lewis, taking him down six times in just over half a round before finishing things with an arm-triangle choke. That fight was originally supposed to take place in November 2022, but Lewis dropped out mid-card due to an illness. Prior to that, Spivac landed a pair of TKO wins in the first two rounds against two opponents who have both since been cut in Augusto Sakai and Greg Hardy. Spivac started out 1-2 in the UFC, before winning six of his next seven, but most of his wins haven’t aged well. Only two of his seven wins came against opponents who are still on the UFC roster and the only grappler he’s ever beaten in the UFC was geriatric Alexey Oleynik. He’s been knocked out in under nine minutes in three of his four UFC losses and dropped a 30-27 decision to Marcin Tybura in his one other defeat.

Now 16-4 as a pro, Spivac has seven wins by KO/TKO, seven more by submission, and two decision victories. While he’s never been submitted, he’s been knocked out three times and has one decision loss. Prior to joining the UFC, he landed nine straight finishes in the first two rounds, with eight ending in round one. Since joining the UFC, 8 of his 11 fights ended early (5-3), with four ending in round one (2-2), and four ending in round two (3-1). While his last finish ended in a submission, his previous three ended in knockouts.

This will be the 6th five-round fight of Spivac’s career, and his third in the UFC. His first four fights that were scheduled to go five-rounds ended in first round wins, while his most recent ended in a second round TKO loss, and he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes.

Overall, Spivac is a Heavyweight grappler who does his best work from top position on the mat. He’s not a great striker on the feet and relies almost entirely on getting fights to the ground to win. He’s just 1-4 in UFC fights where he’s failed to land a takedown, with the one win coming against an aging grappler in Alexey Oleynik who also relies entirely on his grappling to win fights. On the other side of things, Spivac is 6-0 in UFC fights where he landed at least one takedown. In his 11 UFC fights, Spivac landed 27 takedowns on 42 attempts (64.3% accuracy), with three or more takedowns landed in six of his seven wins, and six or more in three of those. Also, whoever has led in significant strikes has won all 11 of Spivac’s UFC fights. He doesn’t handle adversity well and is a much better hammer than a nail. Once things start going south for him, it’s rare to see him turn them back around.

Marcin Tybura

20th UFC Fight (12-7)

Tybura is coming off a late first round submission win over Tai Tuivasa in a March main event. Tuivasa drew first blood, but Tybura got the fight to the mat a minute and a half in and never relinquished the position. After securing the position on the ground, he battered Tuivasa with ground and pound before eventually locking up a rear-naked choke. Prior to that win, Tybura was knocked out in just 73 seconds when he went into enemy territory and headlined a card against Tom Aspinall. Leading up to that loss, Tybura had won two straight and seven of his previous eight fights, with the one loss coming in a 2021 three-round decision against Alexander Volkov. Tybura’s last three fights before losing to Aspinall all ended in three-round decisions, with him winning the last two of those against fellow wrestlers in Alexander Romanov and Blagoy Ivanov. Tybura has a trend of going the distance against other wrestlers, while his fights against strikers generally end with someone getting finished, most often in a KO/TKO. Leading up to his loss against Volkov, Tybura landed back-to-back ground and pound TKOs against two one-dimensional strikers in Walt Harris and Greg Hardy.

Now 25-8 as a pro, Tybura has nine wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and nine decision wins. While he’s coming off a submission win, most of his recent finishes have come by TKO and his other six submission wins all occurred earlier in his career from 2011 to 2014. He’s also been knocked out five times himself and has three decision losses. Ten of his 18 UFC fights went the distance (7-3), eight ended in KO/TKOs (4-4), while he’s coming off his first UFC fight to end via submission. Only four of his 19 UFC fights ended in the first round (2-2), while five were stopped in rounds two or three (3-2). However, his last three fights to end early were all first round stoppages (2-1).

This will be the ninth five-round fight of Tybura’s career, and fourth in the UFC. His five fights scheduled to go five-rounds before he joined the UFC all took place from 2013 to 2015, with Tybura notching three first round submissions and a first round knockout, while also getting knocked out once himself in the third round. His first UFC five-round fight ended in a 2017 decision loss to Fabricio Werdum, his next ended in a R1 TKO loss against Tom Aspinall, and his most recent resulted in a first round submission win over Tai Tuivasa. So seven of his previous eight five-round fights ended in round one, with the other going the distance.

Overall, Tybura is a Heavyweight grappler and BJJ black belt. In his 19 UFC fights, he landed 21 takedowns on 63 attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 7 of their 34 attempts (79.4% defense). Tybura lacks the striking ability and power to be competitive on the feet with anyone in the top of the Heavyweight division, but can hang against average strikers. With that said, he’s typically reliant on taking opponents down and beating them up with ground and pound to win fights. He landed at least one takedown in 10 of his last 11 UFC wins and lost four of the last five matches where he failed to land a takedown. Tybura went through a four fight stretch in 2018 to 2019 where he got knocked out three times and his durability was under scrutiny, but the only fighter to finish him in his last 10 fights is the current Heavyweight champion in Tom Aspinall. Tybura has been around the UFC for so long that now he’s circling back around to fight guys a second time.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 6’3” with a 78” reach, but Tybura is nine years older than the 29-year-old Spivac.

It’s always interesting when you have a rematch, as it’s easy to put too much stock in what happened the first time. It’s been four and a half years since these two fought and you would expect Spivac especially to have grown since then, since he’s still so young even now. However, we really didn’t like what we saw from him in the wrestling exchanges in the first fight and Tybura was able to get him down and control him pretty easily, while Spivac looked helpless off his back. In fairness to Spivac, he only weighed in at 234 lb for that match and has since bulked up to 255 lb. Maybe the extra mass will help him in the wrestling exchanges, although that is also additional weight he’ll have to carry, which could impact his cardio if this fight runs long. Tybura has at least shown the ability to go five rounds before, while Spivac has never been past round three. Neither of these two are great strikers and if we get a finish it will likely be from ground and pound on the mat. It would also not be surprising to see it go the distance, as they both have similar styles and we could see something of a stalemate. Regardless, we like Tybura to come out ahead and think he holds most to all of the advantages in this matchup. Spivac is a frontrunner and once he realizes he can’t dominate Tybura on the ground we expect him to slow down and start looking for a way out. Maybe he’ll do enough to survive to see the scorecards, but we believe Tybura should be the favorite here. We expect Tybura to wear Spivac down and either finish him with ground and pound in the middle rounds or win a decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Marcin Tybura ML” at +140.

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DFS Implications:

Spivac has averaged 116 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, with five of those ending in the first two rounds and two going the distance. All of his UFC finishes came on the mat and he’s just 1-4 in UFC fights where he failed to land a takedown, with the one win coming against a washed up grappler in Alexey Oleynik. All of his other UFC victories came against strikers, who he could easily take down and control on the mat. So while he is a dangerous wrestler who’s shown a ton of scoring upside, he’s also been the beneficiary of a lot of favorable matchups and he’s generally struggled in tougher matchups and against fellow grapplers. One of those grapplers was Marcin Tybura, who defeated Spivac in a 30-27 three-round decision back in 2020. Tybura looked like the better wrestler in their first fight, finishing ahead 2-0 in takedowns, while controlling Spivac for eight and a half minutes and out striking him. In fairness to Spivac, he was only 25 years old at the time and weighed 20 lb less than he has in recent fights. Heavyweight is a grown man’s division and rarely do we even see guys that young get signed to the UFC, let alone find immediate success. So physically, Spivac should be in a better position here than in his first fight against Tybura, but it’s still a terrible stylistic matchup for him. Tybura is a good wrestler with a 79% takedown defense and has already outwrestled Spivac once. We’ve also yet to see how Spivac’s cardio holds up in the championship rounds, while Tybura went the full 25 minutes in a loss to Fabricio Werdum back in 2017. And while Tybura has been a little chinny at times, Spivac hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat on the feet. When you then factor in that Spivac will be popular in DFS on this tiny card, this looks like an obvious fade spot. The odds imply Spivac has a 60% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.

Tybura is coming off a first round submission win over Tai Tuivasa in a March main event, which is the first time Tybura has submitted anybody since 2014, despite being a BJJ black belt. Tybura scored a career-best 120 DraftKings points in that win, after getting knocked out in the first round by Tom Aspinall in his previous fight. Leading up to that loss, Tybura won a pair of low-scoring, three-round decisions against fellow wrestlers in Blagoy Ivanov and Alexandr Romanov. Tybura has only topped 94 DraftKings points in 3 of his 21 UFC fights, but has shown upside when he’s able to get his wrestling going. In his three-round decision win over Spivac back in 2020, Tybura scored 87 DraftKings points and 58 points on FanDuel. And if we extend his numbers in that fight over the course of five-rounds, we’d be looking at 125 DraftKings points, but just 83 points on FanDuel. That just shows how much better of a fit his wrestling-heavy style is for the DraftKings scoring system. It’s always possible we get a wrestling stalemate and this turns into a low-volume striking battle, but we like Tybura’s chances of landing takedowns and potentially even finding a finish on the mat. And at his cheaper price tag, he doesn’t need a huge score to end up in winning lineups. The odds imply Tybura has a 40% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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