Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Enjoying The Sheet?
Buy Us a Beer!
Fighter Notes:
Christos Giagos
7th UFC Fight (3-4)Stepping into this fight on just two days' notice following a 16 month layoff, Giagos seems to have his work cut out for him just to make it to the fight. He originally joined the UFC in 2014 and went 1-2 before getting released. His first UFC fight was an easy one, coming against Gilbert Burns, who submitted Giagos in R1 via Armbar (we said easy, we didn’t say for which guy). Giagos bounced back in his second UFC fight with a R1 submission of his own by way of Rear-Naked Choke. He followed that up with a decision loss before being let go by the organization.
He went on to fight six fights outside of the UFC from 2016-2018, going 4-2. He got knocked out by power puncher Josh Emmett in his first fight outside of the UFC, but then got a KO of his own in his next match. His next four fights all ended in decisions, with him winning three of the,, before the UFC brought him back to fight Charles Oliveira in 2018. Oliveira submitted Giagos in R2 of that 2018 match. Since that 2018 loss, Giagos has fought to three straight decisions—he won the first two before losing most recently in August 2019.
Giagos had been scheduled to fight Alan Patrick this past April, but was forced to withdraw from the fight due to an injury.
Giagos has been a low volume striker for his entire career, but did land a career best 87 significant strikes in his last fight—his previous high was a pathetic 47. He’s done a good job of landing takedowns in his last three fights, with a total 13 over that period. In his last two fights alone, he’s attempted a massive 18 takedowns.
Giagos notably looked pretty tired by the third round of his last fight. Now taking a fight on extremely short notice, following an extended layoff, his cardio will definitely be a concern.
Giagos has seven career wins by KO and three by submission, however his only early win in the UFC was a 2015 R1 Submission. His last early win of any kind was a 2016 R1 KO after leaving the UFC. His other eight early victories all came in 2014 or before and seven of his last eight fights have now ended in decisions.
Giagos has notably fought his entire career at 155 lb, whereas Minus is coming down from 170 lb. This fight was moved to 160 lb catchweight given the short notice. It had previously been scheduled for 155 lb before Glenn dropped out.
Carlton Minus
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Originally scheduled to fight Rick Glenn, who then tested positive for COVID mid fight week, Minus draws a new opponent in Christos Giagos who stepped in on Thursday.
Minus is a self described boxer with decently high striking volume, coming out of the Alaskan circuit. Four of Minus’ last five fights have ended in decisions, but 8 of his 12 pro fights have ended early. The only time Minus has been finished early himself came via a 2018 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission against former UFC fighter Rick Story.
In his UFC debut against Matthew Semelsberger, Minus was outlanded 118-77 in significant strikes and taken down twice on two attempts, while also failing on his only takedown attempt. He was also knocked down once and had one submission attempted on him in the losing decision effort, that scored biggly for Semelsberger.
Fight Prediction:
Minus will have a 3.5” reach advantage in this fight but both fighters are the same height. Minus has given us no reason to believe that he can win a fight at the UFC level, but he’s also only been finished once in his albeit limited career. There’s a lot going on here with a late replacement fighter stepping in on two days notice following a 16 month layoff, so it will be important to monitor weigh-ins. We think Giagos’ cardio could be a concern if this fight gets into the later rounds. It also seems likely to get sloppy, but even with all that accounted for, we think it most likely ends in a decision win for Giagos.
DFS Implications:
Giagos has shown the potential to rack up takedowns in his last few fights. One concern is the amount of energy it takes to repeatedly take down an opponent. With his cardio already in question, it seems fair to question how many takedowns he can land before he gasses out. We don’t see him putting up a ton of volume, although he does have the right opponent to do so. With two low level fighters, matches like these often come with a higher level of variance. To be real, this could end in a disgusting low scoring mess or a high volume brawl with both guys struggling to defend themselves. Minus looks like the type of fighter we want to attack in DFS, it’s just unclear how capable Giagos is of doing so. We recommend having enough exposure here that if Giagos goes off you won’t feel like you completely missed out, but not so much that you hate yourself when he fails miserably.
The cheapest fighter on both DFS sites (and for good reason), Minus has given us no reason to think he can compete at this level. While he does have 7 finishes in his 12 pro fights, those came on the questionable Alaskian circuit against suspect opponents—and even on that level he hasn’t finished anyone since 2017. And just to give you an idea of what we mean by the questionable Alaskian circuit, the dude was ordering lunch from the concession stand in one of his victory speeches.
Jimmy Flick
1st UFC Fight (0-0)This fight had been scheduled for December 5th before it was pulled the day of the event, when it was revealed Durden had pink eye.
Coming off a win on DWCS, Flick landed a R3 Arm-Triangle Submission back in September to get his shot in the UFC. He tallied a ridiculous seven official submission attempts in the dominating performance.
A grappling specialist, 13 of Flick’s 15 career wins have come by submission, while he’s never knocked anyone out. On the other side of things, he’s been knocked out in four of his five losses, but has never been submitted. To this point in his career, he’s made a living primarily off of submitting opponents with Arm-Triangle Chokes, but he has a full bag of tricks and can seamlessly transition from one submission to the next. For what it’s worth, Durden has only been submitted once in his career and it came by Rear-Naked Choke.
Flick actually lost a fight against Durden’s first UFC opponent, Chris Gutierrez, by R3 KO due to leg kicks back in 2018. His most recent loss came against UFC newcomer Ray Rodriguez who was recently submitted in his short notice debut against Brian Kelleher.
Flick fought primarily at 135 lb until 2020 when he dropped down to 125 lb.
"This fight looks like it is going to be absolute madness!"
-Dana White on Flick vs. Durden
Cody Durden
2nd UFC Fight (0-0-1)Coming off a draw in his August UFC debut against Chris Gutierrez, Durden had finished his seven previous opponents early, including five in R1. Only one of his 11 career wins made it to the judges, while five ended with KO’s and five in submissions. He only has two career losses—one by submission and another by decision.
A former two time wrestling state champ, Durden also fought at 135 lb until his UFC debut when he dropped down to 125 lb.
Durden dominated the first round in his debut, but after taking the fight on short notice and absorbing a heavy low blow, he seemed to fade later in the fight. Considering he had previously only been to the third round three times in 13 fights, it’s fair to question his cardio.
Partially based on his late fatigue, Durden ended up going just 2 for 13 on takedowns in the fight.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Flick will have a slight 1“ reach advantage. This sets up as an intriguing matchup between two skilled grapplers. We think Flick is the slicker of the two with his submission attempts, but Durden has shown to be more of the KO threat. We like Flick to win by submission later in the fight, but wouldn’t be shocked if Durden pulls the upset.
DFS Implications:
When this fight was previously booked two weeks ago, Flick opened as -185 favorite and was priced at $8,500/$18, while Durden opened as a +130 dog and was priced at $7,700/$12. The line had been bet down to -147 for Flick and +137 for Durden by the day of the event. Now just two weeks later, Flick opened the week as a -150 favorite and is priced at $8,700/$17, while Durden opened at +130 and is priced at $7,500/$12. So Durden is now $200 cheaper on DraftKings and the same price on FanDuel, While Flick is $200 more on DraftKings and $1 cheaper on FanDuel. We already thought Flick was a better play on FanDuel due to his submission attempts and takedowns defended, so getting him at a slight discount now is just an added benefit. And if you liked Durden before, now you can play him even cheaper on DraftKings.
Both guys make for interesting DFS plays in their own right. Based on his last fight, we think Flick is more likely to be credited with a high number of submission attempts, which would increase his value on FanDuel—where he could also benefit from Durden’s poor takedown accuracy, if that trend continues. Aside from that, we think both guys have the ability to score well on either DFS site, but we could see a ton of points scored through advances and reversals on DraftKings especially.
Tafon Nchukwi
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Although Nchukwi has just four pro fights on his record, he won all four by KO and has never seen a third round. He also has a background in Muay Thai, where he went 13-1, and won a kickboxing world championship.
He’s coming off a September R2 KO win on DWCS over a much smaller opponent. Nchukwi stands 6’0” with a 77” reach and weighed in at 204 lb for that fight. His opponent was 5’8” with a 67.5” reach and weighed only 200 lb. Nchukwi fought his first two pro fights at Heavyweight, before competing in a 225 lb catchweight match in his third pro fight. He then dropped another 21 lb for the DWCS fight and will continue to drop weight as goes all the way down to Middleweight (185 lb) for his UFC debut. He’s a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Nchukwi was outlanded by his opponent 55-47 in significant strikes on DWCS, but was clearly landing the more powerful strikes and then brutally knocked out the smaller Matavao in R2 with a violent left kick that left Matavao out cold on the mat for several minutes.
Prior to his appearance on DWCS, Nchukwi knocked out William Knight in R1 of their 2019 match. Knight is now 9-1 as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC after a win in his recent debut.
Jamie Pickett
1st UFC Fight (0-0)If Pickett had not gotten a shot in the UFC it would not have been for a lack of effort. He attempted to earn a UFC contract on DWCS not once, not twice, but thrice. And as is often the case, the third time was the charm.
In his first DWCS appearance back in 2017, he was submitted by Charles Byrd in R1. In his second time on the show, he lost a three round decision to Punahele Soriano in 2019. But on his third try this past August, he landed a R2 KO and finally made it into the UFC. He showed an explosive flurry of punches to finish that last fight, something that we didn’t see in his earlier fights.
All but two of Pickett’s career fights have been at Middleweight (185 lb), but he has fought up a weight class twice. He’s 11-4 as a pro, with 9 of his 11 wins coming early—eight by KO and one by submission. Two of his four losses were by submission, which is unlikely to come into play in this fight. Pickett’s other two losses ended in decisions. He has never been knocked out. While two of his last three fights have ended in decisions, three of his last four wins have been by KO.
Pickett is a very long fighter with a massive 80” reach. His long arms allow him to jab from what would be most fighter’s kicking range.
Fight Prediction:
Despite Nchukwi dropping down a weight class, Pickett will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage in this fight. Pickett is six years older and has 15 pro fights worth of experience under his belt, while Nchukwi has just 19 minutes and 12 seconds of total pro MMA cage time. However, Nchukwi looks like the more powerful fighter and Pickett appeared pretty hittable on tape. While all four of Nchukwi’s wins have come by KO, and 8 of Pickett’s 11 wins have as well, neither of these two have ever been knocked out themselves. It will be interesting to see if that changes come Saturday—we’re betting that it will. We think the odds are wider than they should be and both guys have a shot at winning this fight. Forced to choose between the two, we think Nchukwi is more likely to end it early. With that said, these favorites coming off DWCS and making their UFC debuts have been tough to trust lately. Maybe the fact that we have two DWCS fighters going up against one another will change that, or maybe we see another massive upset here.
UPDATE: We thought Pickett looked more impressive at weigh-ins. Nchukwi is cutting a ton of weight to get down to 185 lb for the first time and looked kind of drained.
DFS Implications:
Both of these fighters have shown the ability to end fights early, but Nchukwi appears the much more powerful fighter on tape. He also showed solid striking volume, but keep in mind that’s based on just a 7 minute sample size in his last match. He also absorbed a large number of strikes in that fight, which could boost Pickett's ceiling if he’s somehow able to pull off the upset. Nchukwi is the second most expensive fighter on DraftKings and the most expensive on FanDuel. So to crack the optimal lineup he’ll likely need to not only get the finish but also outscore all (or all but one) of the other high priced fighters. He’s certainly capable of doing that, but without a grappling game to boost his score, he seems reliant on a R1 KO to do so. He does have the best odds of anyone on the slate for a R1 finish, but it’s far from a sure thing.
As the second cheapest fighter on both sites, Pickett has a much wider range of outcomes that could allow him to sneak into optimal lines. While his striking volume doesn’t look great on paper, he did start to pick it up some in his last fight. He’s also landed 3 takedowns on 6 attempts over his three DWCS fights, so he has the potential to tack on points in the grappling game as well. He also looks like an interesting GPP leverage play going against likely one of the highest owned fighters on the slate.
Taila Santos
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Santos had been scheduled to fight Montana De La Rosa on December 5th before De La Rosa tested positive for COVID the day of the event. Now making the weight cut down to 125 lb for the second time in two weeks, it will be important to monitor Santos during weigh-ins.
UPDATE: Santos made weight, but she was the second to last person to weigh in, which could be nothing or it could signify she was having a tougher time getting down to weight.
Coming off a July decision win over a tough Molly McCann, Santos came into the UFC in 2019 with a perfect 14-0 record that included 11 R1 finishes as well as one in R2. Ten of those finishes came by KO while two were by submission.
However, in her UFC debut she lost a split decision to a highly suspect fighter in Mara Romero Borella, who’s now lost five of her last six fights. Borella was able to control Santos on the ground and against the fence for extended periods of time in the first two rounds, which is obviously concerning. Santos looked better in the third round but it was too little, too late as she ended up losing the decision.
Santos has now seen her last three fights all end in decisions, beginning with her 2018 DWCS match. Following her February 2019 UFC debut, Santos had three fights canceled—one due to an opponent injury, another from a Santos injury, and most recently because of COVID—so she was forced to take a longer layoff than she would have liked. She didn’t fight again until July 2020 when she beat McCann.
Santos was previously fighting at 134 lb right before joining the UFC, but she then dropped down to 125 lb. She’s only fought three times since 2016, after she took some time off following a 2016 fight to have a baby. It’s possible after the extended layoff and major life event that she’s simply not the same finisher she used to be. It’s also possible that her domination on the lower levels just didn’t translate well into the UFC—as is often the case with fighters making the step up.
Gillian Robertson
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Robertson had been scheduled to fight Andrea Lee on December 12th, before Lee pulled out for a broken nose a week in advance of the fight. Robertson never had to go through the final days of a weight cut like Santos did and instead just essentially extended her camp one week.
Robertson has now won her last two fights and four of her last five. Her last three career losses have all come against very tough competition in Maycee Barber, Mayra Bueno SIlva, and Cynthia Calvillo. Seven of her last eight wins have come early and she routinely tops the century mark on DraftKings.
On the other side of things, her last two losses have both come in R1, so she also presents some upside for her opponents if you’re so inclined to bet against her.
Fight Prediction:
Santos will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage in this fight. Robertson will be looking to take this fight to the ground, where she’ll look to submit Santos. She definitely has her work cut out for her, given Santos’ 83% takedown defense, but we think she’ll find a way to get it to the mat. However, if she can’t, she could be in trouble on the feet, as Santos should have the striking advantage in this fight. Santos has now had to go through two back to back weight cuts to get down to 125 lb. Keep in mind, Santos used to fight up at 135 lb, so getting down to 125 lb likely isn’t the easiest cut for her. We like Robertson to get the submission win here, most likely in the second half of the fight.
DFS Implications:
After her first seven UFC fights all ended early (5-2), Robertson expressed her displeasure with going to the judges in her last fight—despite winning the decision. She clearly wants to finish every fight early, which is exactly what we’re looking for in DFS. Since her last two wins were lower scoring than what we’re used to with Robertson, this looks like a great time to buy low and go over the field on her. Robertson is a better play on DraftKings, where she’s priced as the underdog and can score off advances, but we like her on both sites.
While Santos is priced as the favorite on DraftKings, she’s actually $2 cheaper than Robertson on FanDuel. Given that Robertson will be constantly looking to take this fight to the ground and Santos has an 83% takedown defense, there are several reasons to like Santos more on FanDuel than on DraftKings. We still prefer Robertson on both sites, but Santos is definitely a far better play on FanDuel than on DraftKings.
Antonio Arroyo
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Thirteen months removed from a decision loss in his UFC debut against a tough submission specialist in Andre Muniz, Arroyo had won his previous five fights—including back-to-back wins (a year apart) on DWCS with a R3 decision followed by a R2 Arm-Triangle Choke.
Arroyo had recently been scheduled to fight Eryk Anders on November 14th before Anders dropped out the day of the event. In fact, five of Arroyo’s last six scheduled fights have now been canceled: 11/16/19 Holland withdrew due to injury, 11/16/19 Di Chirico withdrew, 2/8/20 Arroyo "Fell Ill after Weigh Ins", 11/14/20 Michailidis Withdrew, 11/14/20 Anders dropped out due to weight cutting issues.
Arroyo has never been KO'd, but has been submitted twice, including a 2015 R1 Guillotine Choke and a 2017 R1 Rear-Naked Choke. He was, however, able to survive the submission attempts of the dangerous grappler Andre Muniz in his UFC debut. On the other side of things, Arroyo has four career wins by submission, three by Arm-Triangle Choke and one by Rear-Naked Choke.
Arroyo’s first nine pro fights all ended in R1, with him winning seven of those (4 KO’s & 3 Submissions). His two losses over that period both were by R1 submission. Keep in mind, those seven wins did come against an overall lower level of competition, with records of 0-1, 0-0, 4-5, 0-0, 11-2, 2-4, and 1-1. Two of Arroyo’s last three fights have now ended in decisions, but two of his last three wins have come by submission.
Deron Winn
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Fresh off a nine-month suspension after he tested positive for amphetamines following his March 2020 submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert, Winn had originally been scheduled to fight Antônio Braga Neto, before Neto withdrew and Arroyo stepped in with a month to prepare.
While Winn officially has a 0% takedown defense in the UFC, that’s only based on two attempts over his first three UFC fights. Spicely didn’t attempt a takedown in Winn’s UFC debut, while Stewart and Meerschaert both went 1 for 1 on takedowns. In Winn’s first three UFC fights he’s gone 0 for 3, 6 for 15, and 1 for 2 on his own takedown attempts. Arroyo has just a 44% takedown defense.
While his UFC debut turned into an all out firefight, with Winn outlanding Spicely 169-108 in significant strikes, his last two fights haven’t come close to matching those numbers. Stewart outlanded Winn 57-29 in significant strikes en route to a split decision win, while Meerschaert outlanded Winn 86-53 before submitting him in the third round.
An All-American college wrestler, Winn went on to compete internationally in freestyle wrestling before turning pro in MMA in 2017. A pure wrestler, Winn has no submission wins on his record, and no submission attempts in the UFC.
While Winn does have four KO wins to his name, impressively all in R1, those came in his first four pro fights against a lower level of competition. Those opponents entered with records of: 7-5-1, 4-7, 3-7, and 0-0. Two of those opponents never fought again, one has gone 0-3 since losing to Winn, and the other has gone 2-4 since the loss. At the UFC level, Winn seems less likely to finish anyone, and at just 5’7” he’s at a huge height disadvantage in every fight he’s part of.
Interestingly, this fight is at 195 lb catchweight despite it being booked a month out. Arroyo normally fights at 185 lb, but did fight up at Light Heavyweight once back in 2017. Winn has fought anywhere between 185 lb to 205 lb in his career, but has missed weight in the past trying to get to 185 lb. He’s only successfully made the 186 lb Middleweight limit twice in three attempts. In his previous five pro fights, he fought at 205 lb three times, and also at 190 lb catchweight and 192 lb catchweight. Therefore, the extra weight seems like it may be more of a benefit to Winn than Arroyo.
Fight Prediction:
Arroyo will have a massive 9” height advantage and 3” reach advantage in this fight. Neither of these two fighters have even been knocked out, but Meerschaert did knock down Winn in his last fight before jumping on top and finishing him with a submission. We don’t see Winn finishing Arroyo here, which means Arroyo will have 15 minutes of time to finish Winn or rack up points trying. We like Arroyo to win with either a late finish or by decision.
DFS Implications:
Arroyo’s low striking volume and patient fighting style make it hard for him to score well outside of an early finish. It’s possible this turns into a pace up fight and we see Arroyo hit a ceiling performance in striking volume, but that’s tough to rely on. This could also turn into a wrestling match, leaving both guys exhausted by the third round. Interestingly, DraftKings priced Arroyo at $8,900 whereas he’s just $16 on FanDuel. While that clearly makes Arroyo a better value on FanDuel, where he can also score off takedowns defended, it should also keep his DraftKings ownership pretty low—especially when people look at his lone 25 point loss in his debut. So Arroyo looks like a solid value play on FanDuel and a low-owned leverage play on DraftKings.
Winn is cheap on both sites, but we don’t think this is a great spot for him to succeed. Some people may chase his 115 DraftKings points performance in his debut, but we’re not convinced lighting strikes twice after he set the Middleweight record for the most significant strikes landed in a three round fight in that one. The more likely route for Winn to score well would be by piling up takedowns, while adding on a moderate amount of volume.
Sijara Eubanks
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Three months removed from her first loss this year, Eubanks bounced back from going 0-2 in 2019 to win her first two fights in 2020. She showcased her ground game when she pulled off an impressive upset against Julia Avila in September, but then lost a decision two weeks later to a massive Ketlen Vieira.
A BJJ black belt, Eubanks spent much of her earlier career fighting at 125 lb before moving up to 135 lb for good in 2019. She lost her first two fights after moving up, but rode out the switch nonetheless. Her last eight fights have all ended in decisions. Eubanks has only two career early finishes, both by KO. However, they came in two of her first three pro fights against 1-3 Gina Begley and 1-2 Amberlynn Orr.
Eubanks throws a moderate amount of volume at times, but has never been a sustained high volume striker. The most significant strikes she has ever landed in a fight is 85, which for a high priced fighter typically isn’t enough to be useful in a decision, even when you add on a couple takedowns.
UPDATE: Eubanks initially weighed in a half pound over the limit, but made weight once they brought out the towel.
Pannie Kianzad
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Coming off a decision win over Bethe Correia back in July, Kianzad has now won two in a row and three of her last four. Her last four fights have all ended in decisions, as have 7 of her last 8.
Only 3 of her 13 wins have been inside the distance—all by KO. Those came on her 2nd (2012), 3rd (2012) and 6th (2014) career fights. Those fights were against 0-1 Cheryl Flynn (only career fight), 10-5 Lina Lansberg, and 1-2 Megan Van Houtum (never fought again). Kianzad hasn't won a fight early since 2014 and now gets an opponent in Eubanks who’s never been finished in her career.
Kianzad has been finished early herself in three of her five career losses. Those losses came in a 2015 R2 KO, a 2017 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission and a 2018 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission in her UFC debut.
Owning a 92% takedown defense, Kianzad has only been taken down once in 14 attempts over her four UFC fights. That takedown came in her UFC debut, and she has since successfully defended all nine attempts against her in her last three fights.
After landing just 19 and 33 significant strikes in her first two losing efforts in the UFC, she has outlanded her opponents 98-65 and 103-56 in his last two fights. Kianzad's last loss came in a 2019 decision against Julia Avila.
Fight Prediction:
Kianzad will have a 3” height advantage, but Eubanks will have a 1” reach advantage. This will be Eubanks’ second straight fight going against an opponent with a 92% takedown defense. That didn’t work out great for her in her last outing, as she failed to land her only takedown attempt against Vieira. It’s not crazy to think that Kianzad could outstrike her way to a decision here. Eubanks seems to rely on her ground game when things aren’t going well on the feet, and if Kianzad’s solid takedown defense can hold up, that safety net might not be there for Eubanks. If Kianzad can keep the fight standing up, then we think this one becomes more or less of a coin flip. Since it feels destined to end in a decision, we think the Kianzad Wins by Decision line is sort of interesting at +190. If Eubanks can get the fight to the ground, however, there’s a chance she can submit Kianzad and exceed expectations.
DFS Implications:
Eubanks has only scored above 98 DraftKings points in one of her seven UFC fights. She has shown a solid floor of 84 points in wins, but now that she’s priced back near the top, on DraftKings at least, she really needs a ceiling performance here to be useful. She has at least two takedowns in all of her wins, which could be tougher to achieve against Kianzad and her 92% takedown defense. FanDuel made things a little more interesting by pricing Eubanks down at $14, but given how loose their pricing is for this slate, we’re still not sure you need to go there. Assuming she doesn’t get her first early win in the UFC, Eubanks would likely need to land multiple takedowns and set a career high in significant strikes on Saturday to be relevant in DFS.
Kianzad is almost entirely reliant on striking to score well in DFS, as she has landed just one takedown on five attempts across her four UFC fights. And she’s also only attempted one takedown in her last two fights combined, which she didn’t land. It seems unlikely that she finishes Eubanks, so really the only scenario we see where Kianzad can sneak into optimal lineups would be for her to pull off a high volume upset win AND have all the other cheap fighters on the slate fail to outscore her. It seems like a very unlikely proposition, but weirder things have happened.
Anthony Pettis
20th UFC Fight (10-9)Pettis snapped a two fight skid with a decision win over Donald Cerrone in his last fight this past May. He had been submitted in R2 of his previous fight via Rear-Naked Choke by Diego Ferreira after losing a decision to Nate Diaz the fight before that. Pettis did knock out Stephen Thompson at the end of the second round in their 2019 match, but only landed 32 significant strikes and added nothing in the ground game, so the seemingly well timed victory still scored just 96 DraftKings points. That was Pettis’ only early win in his last five fights and first KO win since 2013.
Pettis fought at 155 lb until fighting Wonderboy in 2019, when he moved up to 170 lb. He fought two fights at 170 lb (1-1) before dropping back down to 155 lb in a R2 submission loss to Diego Ferreira. He then moved back up to 170 lb in his win over Donald Cerrone most recently. This fight is at 170 lb also.
Pettis has fought exactly as many pro MMA fights as he’s lived years on this earth. Now stepping into his 34th pro MMA match, the 33-year-old seems unlikely to show us anything we haven’t already seen out of him. He’s certainly capable of ending a fight early, but hasn’t had a R1 win since 2013. He’s lost 8 of his last 13 fights and seems to be in constant danger of getting cut by the UFC. A loss here would likely seal his fate.
Alex Morono
12th UFC Fight (7-3, NC)On a quick turnaround after winning an insanely high volume three round decision on November 14th against Rhys McKee, Morono now gets a big step up in competition. After dominating Mckee, who was fighting for just the second time in the UFC, Morono now gets an opponent with 20 UFC fights worth of experience.
Prior to his recent once-in-a-career performance, Morono had been quickly knocked out by Khaos Williams just 27 seconds into their February match.
Morono had won his three fights prior to the KO loss, including a 2019 decision win over Max Griffin and a R1 KO before that. Morono knocked Griffin down late in the second round of that fight and looked incredibly close to getting the finish. He’s now won four of his last five fights, but three of those wins have come in decisions. Outside of his recent anomaly performance, he’s struggled to really score well in decision wins, and 7 of his 10 UFC fights have ended in decisions.
His 2017 “No Contest” was originally a R2 KO loss against Niko Price, but it was later overturned to a “No Contest” when Price tested positive for marijuana. So Morono’s record doesn’t really tell the full story, as he’s really been KO’d three times and not twice. Morono did drop Price in the first round and looked decent before getting knocked out in the second.
Morono has two early wins in the UFC—a 2018 R1 Guillotine Choke and a 2019 R1 KO. In his entire pro career, he has five KO wins and six by submission. However, three of those submissions were R1 Armbars very early in his career. Prior to joining the UFC, Morono had eight R1 wins, three by KO and five submissions (three Armbars, one Guillotine Choke and one Triangle Choke). He also had a R3 KO win. He has never been submitted but has been knocked out twice—or three times if you count the “No Contest”.
Fight Prediction:
Morono will have a 1” height advantage in this fight but both fighters share a 72” reach. After seeing Morono work at an unsustainable pace in his last fight, we think Pettis will slow this one down and force a lower volume decision. The line seems a little wide, but we’ll defer to the oddsmakers on this one, who think Pettis wins a decision.
DFS Implications:
Pettis has failed to score above 96 DraftKings points in his last nine fights and none of his last 14 fights have ended in the first round. He doesn’t throw much volume and hasn’t landed a takedown in his last six matches. That makes him mostly reliant on a R1 finish to score well in DFS, something he hasn’t done in seven years. He did score over 100 DraftKings points in a 2016 R3 Submission win, but that was on the back of a bizarrely high five reversals (and two advances), which you don’t see very often. Weird things can always happen, but Pettis will have a hard time paying off at his price tag.
This feels like a classic let down spot for Morono following a career performance. While Morono’s last fight was the perfect spot to play him, Pettis may not be quite so accommodating with the number of strikes he’s prepared to absorb. It’s not the worst matchup ever, and Morono is very cheap on both sites, but he’ll likely be pretty popular based on his recent results, and this very likely ends in a lower scoring decision win for Pettis. You’ll probably want some exposure based on his price, but we don’t think he’s a great play—and that’s after we picked him to get the finish in his last match.
Greg Hardy
8th UFC Fight (4-2, NC)Hardy made the switch from the NFL to MMA in 2016 and had his first pro fight in 2018 on the Contender Series. He won that fight with a 57 second R1 KO, which he followed up with a 17 second R1 KO, again on the Contender Series just seven weeks later. Still not deemed ready for the UFC, he took a fight on Xtreme Fight Night a month and a half after that and landed his third straight R1 KO—this time in 53 seconds. Following that KO victory, the UFC decided to give him a shot four months later.
In his UFC debut, Hardy made it to the second round for the first time in his career. He was promptly disqualified in R2 after landing a brutally blatant illegal knee to a grounded opponent. Referee Dan Miragliotta was visibility disgusted and you could hear him immediately react with “Are you fucking kidding me?!” on the broadcast. Whether it was a lack of self control or just complete unawareness of the rules, this should at least give you some reason for pause before clicking Hardy’s name in DFS.
To his credit, Hardy bounced back with another quick R1 KO against a fighter who looked like he didn’t want to be there. Hardy actually looked a little more composed in his second UFC fight. He followed that win up with his 5th R1 KO in six fights, and second in the UFC. Another fight that could be counted with just the second hand on the clock, this one lasted only 45 ticks.
Hardy’s next fight brought him back under the microscope as he was caught using an inhaler in between rounds 2 and 3—which is a clear violation of the rules. Hardy said he asked if that was allowed and given permission, but apparently there was some confusion during that process. Hardy won the fight in a decision but that was later overturned to a NC. He claimed he wanted to go the full 15 minutes in this fight to showcase his skills as a fighter. Not really what you want to hear if you played him in DFS. His score is listed at just 27 points on DraftKings, as they don’t give him credit for the win. But even with the decision bonus he would have scored a useless 57 points—one point less then he scored in his most recent decision win.
Following the NC, Hardy stepped in on short notice just 22 days later to replace Junior Dos Santos, against Alexander Volkov. Hardy appeared to injure his right hand in R1 limiting his striking for the remainder of the fight. This was Hardy’s first true test in competition, and while he didn’t win, he at least didn’t embarrass himself. The fight ended in his second straight decision after his first six pro fights all ended early. He seemed content with the pace he set in the two decisions, opposed to the more aggressive style he demonstrated in his earlier KO victories. Hardy went on to win another decision after that, making it three straight low volume decisions.
He finally broke his recent decision streak in his last fight against Maurice Greene, with a R2 KO. Amazingly, Hardy was credited with both his first knockdown and his first takedown in that fight. He also got his first advance. He seemed far more aggressive in the match and looked like he actually wanted to finish the fight early. He put up a career best 111 DraftKings points. In typical Hardy fashion, he’s now already talking about a potential switch to a career in boxing.
Marcin Tybura
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Coming off the highest striking volume three round fight of his career, Tybura outlanded Rothwell 94-89 in significant strikes, but landed just 1 of 3 takedowns after he landed 5 across his previous two fights. Tybura has now won three straight decisions in 2020, after getting knocked out twice in his two 2019 fights. His last five wins have now all been by decision, while his last three losses have all come by KO.
Now 35 years old, Tybura’s only early wins in the UFC came in his second and third UFC fights—a 2016 R2 KO and a 2017 R3 KO. None of his UFC fights have ended with submissions, but he does have six submission wins as a pro before he joined the UFC. Three of those came in his first four pro fights from 2011-2012.
Fight Prediction:
Hardy will have a 2” height and reach advantage in this fight. While it’s always tough to predict what Hardy will do, we think this sets up as a good spot for him to get a KO. Tybura showed more willingness to stand and throw in his last fight, and Hardy has an 83% takedown defense if Tybura does look to take the fight to the ground. Hardy has spoken about his ambitions to be a world champion, maybe now he’s starting to realize that it’s not just about winning fights, but also about putting on an impressive performance and landing KO’s. We’ll say Hardy gets the KO in the first half of this fight.
DFS Implications:
Hardy has never landed above 55 significant strikes in a fight and he has just one takedown to his name. He’s entirely reliant on landing an early KO to score well in fights and three of his last four matches have ended in decisions. Hardy feels like an ADHD child inside of a 265 lb body and it’s so hard to know what he’ll do next. Maybe he’ll go for a knockout, or maybe he’ll get distracted and wander off chasing a butterfly. He clearly has the power to finish opponents in the first round, but he doesn’t always seem to be chasing bonuses like some of these guys. He has a high ceiling and a low floor in DFS, but his ownership is generally reflective of the expectation that he’ll get an early KO. Play him. Or don’t. Honestly, who knows with this guy. But this does set up as a good spot for a ceiling performance. His price on FanDuel does appear to be almost too good to pass up at just $15, after he was $20 in his last fight. The change is less noticeable on DraftKings where he dropped from $8,800 to $8,500. One thing to keep in mind is that because he’s so cheap on FanDuel now, don’t be surprised when he’s massively owned.
Despite the increased volume in his last fight, Tybura still scored just 85 DraftKings points in his third straight decision win. That score matched his high over his last 10 fights and he’s yet to show a usable ceiling. Given that his last three losses have all come by KO, he seems to present a decent ceiling for Hardy. So while we don’t see any reason to play Tybura in DFS lineups, this could be a good spot for Hardy. We could point out that with Tybura being the same price as Hardy on FanDuel, his ownership will be exponentially less, but since we think Tybura’s a bad play we’re not going to do that to you.
Marlon Moraes
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Coming off an October R2 KO loss against Cory Sandhagen, Moraes has now lost two of his last three fights and appears to be at a pivotal crossroads in his career.
After losing his 2017 UFC debut by split decision against Raphael Assuncao, Moraes fought to another close split decision against John Dodoson, but that time had it swing his way. He then really made a name for himself in the UFC with three straight first round finishes, including a 63 second KO of Aljamain Sterling, a 33 second KO of Jimmie Rivera, and a 197 second Guillotine Submission win over Raphael Assuncao to avenge his earlier loss. The flashy four fight winning streak was enough to get Moraes a title shot against Henry Cejudo, but Cejudo ended up knocking Moraes out in the third round.
Moraes bounced back from the loss with another close split decision in December 2019, this time against Jose Aldo. He followed up that win with the recent KO loss to Sandhagen as the headliner of the October 10th card. Having now lost two of his last three fights, after winning 17 of his previous 18, this seems like an important fight for Moraes to win if he wants to remain in the contender conversation. Still just 32 years old, Moraes should theoretically still be in his prime, but does have 30 pro fights of wear and tear on his body.
With five of his last six fights ending early, Moraes’ fights generally score well for the winner. Of his 23 career wins, 16 have come early. And six of his seven career losses have also ended early.
Rob Font
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Font hasn’t fought in just over a year after he tore his ACL in his last fight against Ricky Simon. And he’s now only fought once in the last two years. It would have been twice, but he had two opponents back out on him for the June 22nd 2019 card. He did make the most of that one fight, beating a tough Ricky Simon in a December 2019 decision, but unfortunately was left with only the injury to remember it by. Interestingly, that win marked the only time Font failed to score over 100 DraftKings points in his seven wins since joining the UFC.
In his 10 UFC fights, Font has four wins by KO, split across the first two rounds, and one win by submission—a 2017 R2 Guillotine Choke. While his last two wins both came in decisions, he landed 111 and 90 significant strikes, while tacking on 2 and 1 takedowns respectively. He was still able to score 107 DraftKings points in one of those decisions. Of note, his last three fights have now all ended in decisions after 6 of his first 7 UFC fights ended early.
Two of Font’s three UFC losses have been by decision. The only time he’s been finished early in 21 pro fights was a 2017 R1 Guillotine Choke at the hands of Pedro Munhoz, who specializes in such things.
Font is an impressive striker with quick hands and solid combinations. He’s landed at least one takedown in 6 of his 10 UFC fights, but has never landed more than two in a fight. In his seven UFC wins he has DraftKings scores of 106, 111, 121, 121, 116, 107 and 80. For as much upside as he has in wins, Font has been effectively neutered in his three losses, scoring just 20, 15 and 10 DraftKings points.
In a recent interview Font said he wants to be aggressive in this fight and is looking for the R2 KO. He also said he’s hunting for bonus checks and to expect a fun fight.
UPDATE: Font was EXTREMELY slow to weigh in, but when he finally did (over 35 minutes after the second slowest person) he did make weight and didn’t look completely terrible. For us, this is a red flag, but we’ll allow you to jump to your own conclusion.
Fight Prediction:
The #11 ranked Bantamweight Font will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage over the #3 ranked Moraes in this fight. This sets up as a solid striking battle between two dangerous fighters. Moraes throws a variety of violent leg strikes, which could help to make up for the 4” of reach he is giving up to Font. We think Moraes is the more desperate fighter in this spot, with his back against the wall. Moraes has proven to be the more vulnerable to getting knocked out of these two, so it will be interesting to see how his chin holds up. Font is actually a year older than Moraes, but has nine less pro fights of experience. Honestly, this should be a great fight and it’s a tough one to predict. We think both guys are entirely capable of winning, but we give the slight edge to Moraes.
DFS Implications:
In general, Font has been a DFS scoring cornucopia. So getting him at just $7,200/$11 seems too good to be true—which means A) he will be massively owned and B) he will most likely fail. Now with all that out of the way, we really like Rob Font—at least from a pure points per dollar upside perspective. Call us cynical, but he actually looks like such a great play that this feels like a trap. From a factual perspective, the biggest concerns with Font are that he’s coming off a long layoff due to serious knee injury and going against a dangerous fighter who seems to have his back against the wall. Regardless, we think Font has a huge ceiling and based on his price, even a decent scoring victory could be enough to vault him into optimal lineups. We think there are enough concerns that you shouldn’t just blindly jam him into all your lineups, but he does look like a great value play—which is why we have him projected as the highest owned underdog on the slate.
The only UFC fighter to ever score decently against Font was Pedro Munhoz in a R1 submission win. Font has never been knocked out in his career, which is how Moraes has finished the majority of his wins. At the same time, Moraes looks to be in a solid leverage spot, at likely the lowest ownership he’s been in a while, and going against what’s likely to be the highest owned underdog on the slate. While this is a tough fight to navigate for DFS, we think there’s a good chance the winner ends up in optimal lineups, and Moraes is the favorite at lower ownership.
Michel Pereira
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Crazy man Michael Pereira is coming off a September R3 Submission win following back-to-back losses. His last loss resulted from an unfortunate R3 DQ for an illegal knee, in a fight he was clearly winning by a wide margin. Eleven of his last 12 fights have ended early—including six in the first round.
Pereira has only officially been finished early twice in his career by his opponents—a 2018 R1 KO and a 2014 R2 Armbar. However, he’s also had two “No Contests”, including the time he was “Injured by the Cage”.
Despite his chaotic behavior and unusual bag of tricks, Pereira has impressive KO power and submission skills. This guy is huge at 170 lb, and he’s fought anywhere from 170 lb to 204 lb in the past. He has all the physical skills needed, with him, it’s just a question of where he’s at mentally in that moment. Just to give you a peek behind the curtain, here’s an actual quote from Periera on training for his last fight, “I trained with cows, working on taking them down, and running with horses. I had different experiences with different animals and tried to work on different strategies to bring something new to the Octagon.” Trying to prepare to fight this guy must be a nightmare with all of his unconventional attacks, but it seems likely that Khaos has only one plan in mind.
"This fight is fucking ridiculous ladies and gentlemen!"
-Dana White on Pereira vs. Williams
Khaos Williams
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Living up to his name, Khaos has ended both of his UFC fights in the first 30 seconds of action with violent KO's. Now 11-1 as a pro, his only career loss came in a 2018 decision. Four of his last five wins have come early—all in the first round.
Saturday will mark exactly 5 weeks since Khaos cadavored Abdul Razak Alhassan almost immediately after the fight began. Alhassan had previously never been finished early in 13 pro fights. In his UFC debut, Kahos put Alex Morono out in 27 seconds. Morono had previously only been finished once in 22 pro fights officially. The UFC now seems to be trolling Morono, by sticking Khaos on every card that Morno is part of.
Khaos has won eight fights in a row with five R1 finishes and three decisions. Four of those finishes were by KO, but he also has one Guillotine Submission. Seven of his total 11 career wins have come early, but he has won four fights in decisions.
Dana claimed he offered Khaos a top 15 opponent in February, but said Khaos turned it down so he could fight again this year.
Fight Prediction:
Pereira will have a 1” height advantage, but Khaos will have a 4” reach advantage. Both of these guys have solid finishing potential, but Pereira will need to tighten up and stop clowning around so much against a killer like Khaos. This might be the most exciting fight on the slate, but it’s a tough one to predict the outcome of. It seems like Pereira’s antics could get him into trouble, especially if he thinks he can mess around with Khaos the way he has with his previous opponents. We think Pereira lacks the discipline for a fight like this, where any momentary lapse in concentration can have you waking up staring at the ceiling. So while Pereira seemingly has the physical skill set to finish anyone in the Welterweight division, we think the clown gets clowned here and Khaos rules supreme.
DFS Implications:
Look for both of these guys to be heavily owned on both DFS sites, as they each have huge ceilings and incredible affordable price tags.
Interestingly, Khaos is priced as the favorite on FanDuel, despite opening the week as a slight dog and seeing the line get slightly worse from there. DraftKings, on the other hand, has the fighters priced more rationally with Khaos priced a little below Pereira. The prices are close enough that we don’t think they should play a major role in your decision making, but FanDuel does seem to be pushing people towards the favorite in Pereira—which should actually help to keep Khaos’ ownership a little lower over there. Both guys have legit scoring ceilings and non existent floors. While there’s always a slim chance this one ends in a disappointing decision, we think it’s far more likely the winner here will be locked into optimal lineups. You’ll definitely want exposure to both sides and we expect this will likely be the second most highly owned fight on the card after the main event.
Jose Aldo
17th UFC Fight (10-6)Aldo is coming off three straight losses and has now dropped 6 of his last 9 fights. He’s coming off a brutal fifth round KO loss, where the ref cold-heartedly allowed the fight to go on much longer than he needed to. Aldo laid face down on the mat, curled up in a defensive position while Petr Yan pummeled his face into the mat for what felt like minutes. The excruciatingly slow stoppage drew the ire of Dana White, while allowing Yan to rack up a ridiculous number of significant strikes.
Still just 34 years old, Aldo feels much older than he is, which can likely be attributed to the fact that he’s been fighting professionally since 2004—a month after his 18th birthday. With 35 pro fights under his belt, age may take a back seat to the wear and tear he’s put on his body over the years. Aldo seems about done at this point.
This will only be his 3rd fight at 135 lb, after dropping down from 145 lb for the Moraes fight in 2019. While he’s been knocked out in 4 of his last 6 losses, only one of those came before the third round and that was against Conor McGregor. Prior to that 2015 R1 KO loss, Aldo had won 25 of his first 26 pro fights. However, he’s now lost 6 of his last 9 fights now, beginning with the McGregor KO. The losses came against stiff competition in McGregor, Holloway (twice), Volkanovski, Moraes, and Yan. Four of those six losses were in title fights, while Volkanovski went on to win the title in his next fight.
Aldo’s last two wins have come by KO, but those were against opponents going through their own recent struggles in Jeremy Stephen (0-4 in his last four fights) and Renato Carneiro (1-3 in his last four fights). Before those two KO’s, Aldo’s three prior wins were all in five round decisions. As an aging fighter on a three fighter losing streak, Aldo is likely fighting to stay in the UFC here.
Marlon Vera
16th UFC Fight (10-5)Vera is coming off a weird win against Sean O’Malley, where O’Malley injured his right leg early in the fight. Late in the first round O’Malley stumbled and Vera jumped on top. He landed several heavy shots and Herb Dean very quickly stopped the fight just before the round ended. It appeared the leg injury had as much to do with the quick stoppage as the strikes being landed, but it’s hard to say for sure. For what it’s worth, it was the same leg that O’Malley had injured two years prior and there are now legitimate concerns about his future.
A BJJ black belt, Vera has won 6 of his last 7 fights, with the one loss over that span coming in a close decision against Yadong Song up at 145 lb—Vera normally fights at 135 lb. All six of Vera’s career losses have come in decisions, while his last eight wins have all come early. Three of his last four wins have been by KO and only two of his career 16 wins ended in decisions.
Vera has fought the majority of his UFC fights at Bantamweight (135 lb), but has fought twice up at Featherweight (145 lb), where he went 1-1. He also has one win at 140 lb catchweight, leaving him 8-4 at Bantamweight in the UFC. Vera has five wins by KO in the UFC, four by submission and just one by decision.
Fight Prediction:
While Aldo is slightly younger than your typical aging fighter on his way out, it seems unlikely that he revives his career at this point. While we understand that this will be a step down in competition, compared to the level he has been going up against, it’s unclear if that will be enough to get him back in the winning column. We think there’s a decent chance Vera wins this fight, most likely with either a late finish or by decision. However, Aldo winning a close decision is the more likely outcome.
DFS Implications:
Neither of these two average a ton of significant strikes or takedowns, so they’ll likely need a finish to really score well. Aldo’s last five losses have all made it to the third round (2-R3 KO’s, 2-R3 decisions, 1-R5 KO). On the other side of things, Vera has never been finished early as a pro.
Despite also holding a BJJ black belt, Aldo hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 10 fights, leaving him entirely dependent on striking and finishes to score well in DFS. On the defensive side of things, Aldo holds a stellar 90% takedown defense and has only allowed 9 takedowns in his 16 UFC fights. So his opponents are also generally reliant on striking and finishes to score well. Aldo has only been submitted once in his entire pro career, which came in a 2005 R2 Rear-Naked Choke prior to joining the UFC. He’s only landed above 100 significant strikes once (102) and that was in a five round decision. In fights that lasted three rounds or less, he’s only landed above 58 significant strikes once in his UFC career, which came in a brawling R3 KO loss against Max Holloway where Aldo was outlanded. 174-87. Overall, Aldo sets up as a R1 KO or bust play who’s unlikely to get the job done. An average scoring decision win for Aldo is the most likely outcome here, which won’t be enough for him to be useful in DFS.
As a cheaper dog, Vera has a wider range of usable outcomes, but would still likely need the early finish to score decently. After beating O’Malley and winning 6 of his last 7 fights, Vera is likely to be a popular underdog. We think you’ll want a little exposure to him in case he does finish things early, but he most likely busts if this fight goes to a decision, which is the most likely outcome.
Geoff Neal
6th UFC Fight (5-0)This fight got promoted to the main event after the Chimaev fight fell through, so it had originally been scheduled for just three rounds.
Now 371 days removed from a 90 second R1 KO of Mike Perry, Neal had been scheduled to fight Magny on August 29th before suffering a life threatening health scare a few weeks before the fight. Neal spent a week in the ICU hooked up to a dialysis machine after suffering severe septic shock and being told his heart almost failed. It’s unclear what caused the condition, but as far as we can tell he is now recovered.
The 30-year-old Neal has won his last seven fights, with six early finishes—including four in R1. He only has two losses in his career and the only one since 2013 came when he fought up a weight class against Kevin Holland in 2017 and got knocked out in the third round. That fight occurred prior to the two joining the UFC. Ten of Neal’s 13 career wins have come early, including eight KO’s and two submissions. Both of his career losses also came early, with the R3 KO to Holland and a R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss in Neal’s third pro flight back in 2013.
Neal got his shot in the UFC with a R1 KO on DWCS against Chase Waldon, who never fought again following the loss. Neal followed that up with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win his UFC debut against Brian Camozzi who is 0-3 in the UFC after that loss and also hasn’t fought again since. Neal’s third UFC win came against Frank Camacho, who’s lost 4 of his last 5 UFC fights, with his last two ending in R1 losses. In his first real test in the UFC, Neal went up against Belal Muhammad and ended up winning an average scoring decision. He then went up against a couple brawlers in Niko Price and Mike Perry, who he finished in the second and first rounds respectively. While Neal has looked great knocking out trash cans and brawlers, we haven’t seen him put away a patient, technical striker like Thompson. This fight will be different than anything Neal has ever experienced in the past.
He typically fights at 170 lb (where this fight is at), but has fought three pro fights at 185 lb where he went 2-1. Only 5 of his 15 fights have even made it to the third round, and he’s only been to three decisions. So we have no idea how his cardio will hold up in the championship rounds, if this fight gets there. Nine of his last 10 fights have ended early, including five in R1, three in R2 and one in R3.
Stephen Thompson
16th UFC Fight (10-4-1)Thirteen months removed from a decision win over Vincente Luque, Thompson is now 37 years old and is staring at a 2-3-1 record over his last six fights. The two wins over that period did impressively come against Vincente Luque and Jorge Masvidal. However, both wins came in three round decisions and Thompson hasn’t finished anyone early since 2016.
Prior to the 2019 decision win over Luque, Thompson was knocked out in the second round by Anthony Pettis earlier in 2019 and beaten in an ultra low volume five round 2018 decision against Darren Till. Thompson beat Jorge Masvidal in a three round decision before the loss to Till, but failed to beat Tyron Woodley in two title fights before that (one loss and one draw). Six of Thompson’s last 7 fights have now ended in decisions. Amazingly, in the five round decision versus Till we only saw 68 combined significant strikes between the two fighters.
Not looking to get in many brawls, Thompsons is generally a low volume striker but exploded for 138 significant strikes landed in his last fight. If this fight makes it to the later rounds we think Thompson is likely to have the advantage.
A concern from watching him in the Till fight, he appeared down 4 rounds to 1, yet didn’t even try to throw a punch at the end. It seems like when you pair Thompson with another counter puncher they’ll sit there and throw faints and stare at each other the whole fight, but when you pair him with someone who’s constantly pushing forward it forces Thompson to stand and trade more.
Outside of his MMA career, Thompson was impressively 57-0 as a kickboxer with 40 KO’s and has a karate background. Despite getting up there in years, we think Thompson actually looked the best he has in a while in his last fight, which is weird for a guy in his later 30’s. For what it’s worth, Thompson did show somewhat of a suspect chin getting knocked out by Anothony Pettis in 2019, who hasn’t knocked anyone else out in the last 7 years. But that’s literally the only time Thompson has even been finished.
Fight Prediction:
Thompson will have a 1” height advantage in this fight, but both fighters share a 75” reach. Thompson should have the reach advantage in his legs, which will help him to keep Neal at bay with his karate style side kicks. This sets up as sort of a strange fight between guys with conflicting styles. Neal will likely be looking to push the pace while Thompson backs up and looks to land counter strikes. Neal will need to be careful he doesn’t walk into something, so it will be interesting to see if he comes in with a more patient approach. We’re guessing we’ll see more of a feeling out process early on, with Neal trying to find a way to close the distance.
This is likely to be a pace down fight for Neal and a pace up fight for Thompson. Both guys are strikers who have solid takedown defenses, so we expect the fight to remain on the feet. Prior to Thompson’s last fight, where Luque landed 77 significant strikes, no one had ever landed more than 61 significant strikes on him in a fight—and that includes four 5 round decisions. Thompson has also only been finished once in 20 pro fights. So if Neal is unable to change that, this could very well end in a lower volume decision. Thompson also hasn’t finished an opponent in his last seven fights going back to 2016, and Neal hasn’t been finished since his 2017 KO loss against Kevin Holland.
Thompson’s last fight really muddies the water in terms of trying to predict the amount of striking volume we see here. In his five fights before that, he landed 43, 53, 70, 30 and 47 significant strikes. Keep in mind, three of those came in five round decisions. Then, in his last fight he exploded for 138 significant strikes in just a three round decision. So which Thompson are we going to see here? If we had the answer, we would tell you, but he appears to be a tale of two fighters.
Regardless of the amount of strikes we see landed, we think this is a tough spot for Neal to succeed. In what even surprised us as we reached the conclusion, we think Thompson wins this fight—most likely by decision, but a late KO is also possible. We think Thompson Wins by Decision, which we’ve seen as high as +360, seems like a likely outcome. A R3, R4 or R5 KO win for Thompson would also not be surprising. We’ve seen those at +1700, +2200 and +2400 respectively.
DFS Implications:
Like most people we’ve talked to, our first reaction was to pick Neal to win this fight over the aging Thompson. So despite the odds being very close, we think Neal will be the much more popular fighter. Neal comes in undefeated in the UFC, with finishes in four of his five fights. He has at least 97 DraftKings points in all of those four finishes, and at least 107 points in three of them. Coming into the first five round fight of his career, this feels like a let down spot for him. We think he’ll have a hard time landing volume on Thompson and will likely be reliant on an early finish to score well, which also seems unlikely.
Thompson has only scored above 85 DraftKings points in one of his last seven fights—and four of those fights lasted five full rounds. He also only came out victorious in one of those main events, which was his 2016 decision win over Rory MacDonald. Thompson outlanded MacDonald 110-61 in significant strikes in that fight. No knockdowns or takedowns occurred, and Thompson scored a meager 85 points in the 25 minute win. A similar result is possible here, although Neal and MacDonald have very different fighting styles. We think Thompson will either do what he’s typically done in the past, and force a low volume fight where everyone loses in DFS—regardless of the actual outcome—or he’ll show us something similar to what we saw in his last fight against Luque, where he really opened up and landed a massive amount of strikes. Of course it’s possible Thompson makes a miscalculation, and attempts to open up only to let Neal in and knock him out, but it seems more likely Thompson’s style will really limit Neal’s ability to score well in this fight.
It’s not the most confident prediction we’ve ever had, but we kind of think a gross play like Thompson could actually end up winning this slate in DFS. There’s also still a good chance that fading this fight entirely is the play here. And of course a powerful guy like Neal always has a puncher's chance to win if he can land something clean, but we think that’s less likely than what most people are expecting. Being under the field on Neal will allow you to be over on both Thompson and fading the fight completely, which we think both have higher chances of success than betting on Neal to put up a big score. Because Neal is actually priced as the underdog on FanDuel, we think Thompson will go especially low owned over there. Although that also means Thompson will have to put up a huge performance to meet value, so it’s kind of a double edged sword.
With this being the final UFC slate of the year, we hope everyone has enjoyed our 2020 UFC content and look forward to your continued support in 2021. Happy Holidays to everyone and stay safe out there!
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma