The Sheet

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Fight Day Scratches: None

Fighter Notes:

Fight #14

Yazmin Jauregui

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Fresh off an impressive striking debut performance in a decision win over Iasmin Lucindo, Jauregui is still undefeated as a pro and has knocked out two-thirds of her opponents. A year to the day before making her UFC debut, Jauregui won three fights in a single night as part of the Last Latina Standing tournament with Combate Global. She won two of those matches by first round knockout after winning a one-round decision in the first leg of the tournament. So overall she still went less than three full rounds in the night, but it was impressive nonetheless. Jauregui had actually been scheduled to face Istela Nunes in her debut, but Nunes withdrew and Lucindo stepped in. So this will be the second time these two have prepared for one another.

In her last fight, Jauregui took on another tough debuting opponent in Iasmin Lucindo and the two put on a show as they duked it out on the feet for three rounds. Both fighters showed heavy hands and solid chins, while Jauregui was able to defend both of Lucindo’s takedown attempts and never attempted any of her own. Neither woman was ever close to finding a finish, despite landing numerous heavy shots. The fight ended with Jauregui ahead in significant strikes 86-66 and in total strikes 87-66 on her way to a decision victory.

Now 9-0 as a pro, Jauregui has six wins by KO/TKO and three decision victories. One of those decisions was just a single round as it was part of a single-day/multi-fight tournament the last time Jauregui competed before joining the UFC. She also landed a pair of first round knockouts that night. Five of her six career knockouts have come in round one with the other coming in a doctor stoppage following the second round. The first three knockouts of her career came against two opponents making their pro debut and a third who entered 0-1. So only three of her finishes have come against opponents with any amount of pro experience. Jauregui made her 2018 pro debut at 125 lb, but dropped down to 115 lb for her second pro fight, where she’s stayed since.

Overall, Jauregui is an uptempo striker, who’s still just 23 years old and turned pro when she was 19. She’s primarily a boxer, but will mix in takedowns at times, although she didn’t attempt any in her recent debut. She’s also shown a decent takedown defense and the ability to get back up when she does get taken down. She showed no problem going three hard rounds in her recent debut, despite only having one other fight in her career make it past the 10 minute mark.

Istela Nunes

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Still in search of her first UFC win, Nunes is coming off a decision loss to Sam Hughes, after getting submitted in the third round of her UFC debut against Ariane Carnelossi. Nunes has actually lost three of her last four fights and only has one win since 2016, which was a 2018 decision that took place at 125 lb opposed to 115 lb where she normally competes. Prior to her October 2021 UFC debut, Nunes had originally been scheduled to make her debut back in 2019 against Angela Hill, but failed a drug test and was removed from the card and handed a two year steroid suspension.

In her last fight, Nunes started strong, outlanding Hughes 40-15 in striking in round one. However, the tide began to shift in round two where the striking was closer, with Nunes ahead in significant strikes 37-31, but Hughes ahead in total strikes 60-37. After not attempting any takedowns in round one, Hughes shot for four attempts in round two, landing one of them. Nunes was already starting to slow down and a late takedown appeared to win Hughes the second round. Hughes then dominated round three as Nunes didn’t have a ton left in the tank. Hughes outlanded Nunes 30-12 in significant strikes in round three and 76-13 in total strikes, while also landing her only takedown attempt with nearly three minutes of control time. Nunes was also deducted a point for an eye poke in the round. The fight ended with Nunes ahead 89-76 in significant strikes, while Hughes led 151-90 in total strikes and landed two of her five takedown attempts with three and a half minutes of control time.

Now 6-3 as a pro, Nunes has two wins by KO (2015 and 2016) and four decision victories. While she’s never been knocked out, she’s been submitted twice and has one decision loss. Nunes has spent almost her entire career at 115 lb, but did move up to 125 lb for one fight in 2018. Her last win at 115 lb was all the way back in 2016.

Overall, Nunes is a two time Muay Thai world champion and clearly a dangerous striker, but lacks any sort of grappling skills and has bad cardio. In her two UFC fights, Nunes has been taken down 7 times on 12 attempts (41.7% defense). She’s been submitted twice in the later rounds and consistently fades later in fights.

Fight Prediction:

Nunes will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. Jauregui is seven years younger than the 30-year-old Nunes.

These two are both very solid strikers, but Jauregui has clear advantages when it comes to cardio and grappling, both of which are non-existent for Nunes. Jauregui looked solid in her recent debut, while Nunes has yet to win a fight in the UFC after getting suspended for two years for steroids just before joining the organization. So despite her crisp striking, Nunes is covered in red flags which contributes to why she’s such a large underdog here. Nunes hasn’t shown the cardio to go three solid rounds since she joined the UFC, which leaves her more reliant on finding an early knockout. That will be tough to find here, as Jauregui showed a solid chin in her recent debut, and has the ability to take Nunes down and nullify her striking. Jauregui is also a talented enough striker to win this fight without looking for takedowns, but she would be wise to expose the glaring grappling weakness in Nunes’ game. That will also wear on Nunes’ cardio so an early takedown with control time would essentially secure a win for Jauregui. While Nunes has been prone to getting submitted, Jauregui doesn’t have any submission wins on her record. That doesn’t mean she can’t lock something up, but we certainly can’t rely on it. The majority of Jauregui’s knockouts have come in the first round, but if Nunes gasses out once again, Jauregui will have the potential to find a late finish. If she’s unable to put her away we fully expect Jauregui to be the one getting her hand raised in a decision, but we like her chances of finding a finish.

Our favorite bet here is “Jauregui ITD” at +215.

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DFS Implications:

Jauregui scored just 65 DraftKings points in her recent decision win in her UFC debut and is now the fourth most expensive fighter on the slate. That should keep her ownership in check despite being a massive favorite here. While Jauregui didn’t attempt any takedowns in her last fight, it was also a bad matchup for her to try and get the fight to the ground, whereas the complete opposite is true in this next matchup. Jauregui is still primarily a boxer, but she has shown the ability to land takedowns earlier in her career and Nunes is helpless on the mat. While Nunes is a dangerous striker in her own right, she also tends to gas out after the first round, increasing Jauregui’s chances of finding a late finish. While we’re expecting a close fight in the first round, look for Nunes to fade down the stretch and for Jauregui to take over the longer this fight lasts. The odds imply Jauregui has a 74% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.

Nunes is a solid but one-dimensional striker who doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling and has terrible cardio. She’s winless in the UFC and since returning from a steroid suspension and hasn’t gotten her hand raised since 2018. While she looks good in the first round of fights, it’s hard to trust someone with bad cardio and no grappling, and now she’s facing a tough undefeated opponent. Nunes will likely need to land a knockout in the first half of this fight to win, unless she’s made major improvements to her cardio, which we somewhat doubt. She is a dangerous striker and projects to be low owned, but it’s hard to have much faith in her after her recent loss to Sam Hughes. The odds imply she has a 26% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #13

Francis Marshall

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Coming off a decision win on DWCS, Marshall is still undefeated in his young career, but hasn’t faced much in terms of competition. His third most recent opponent has lost 14 straight fights, yet Marshall was only able to win a decision. His last three fights have all made it to the third round, with two of those going the distance.

In his last fight, Marshall did a good job of both leading the striking exchanges and landing takedowns. He landed three takedowns in each of the first two rounds and finished with six landed on 10 attempts, with nearly six minutes of control time. He also led in significant strikes 110-74 and in total strikes 146-87 as he completely controlled the fight from start to finish. While Marshall was unable to find a finish in the match, he showed good cardio as he filled up the stat sheet.

Now 6-0 as a pro, Marshall has four wins by submission and two decision victories. All four of his finishes have come by rear-naked choke, with two ending in round one and two more in round three. His first two pro fights were at 155 lb before he dropped down to 145 lb in 2021 for his last four.

Overall, the 23-year-old Marshall is still very early in his career with just six pro fights to his name. He turned pro three years ago and is also a full-time firefighter. He’s a BJJ purple belt and a former high-school wrestler and football player, but he still looks pretty green when it comes to MMA. He’s pretty stationary and doesn’t have great footwork or head movement, but he appears to have all the physical tools required to be successful if he can keep improving his technique.

Marcelo Rojo

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Continuing to bounce between 135 lb and 145 lb, Rojo got knocked out in the third round of his short notice UFC debut to Charles Jourdain at 145 lb before dropping down to 135 lb for his last fight where he got submitted by Kyler Phillips, also in the third round. Rojo also got submitted in the third round by John Castaneda two fights before joining the UFC and submitted another time in the third round back in 2017. Amazingly, he’s 3-4 in his last seven fights, with all three losses ending in round three. He recently talked about how the tough cut down to 135 lb was a drain on his cardio, and all three of those third round submission losses did occur at 135 lb, while the KO loss was at 145 lb.

In his last fight, Rojo was outmatched in all facets of the game and he was systematically dismantled by Kyler Phillips throughout the fight. Phillips destroyed the lead leg of Rojo and was also able to take him down three times on eight attempts with two and a half minutes of control time before submitting him in the first half of round three. Phillips finished ahead 80-55 in significant strikes and 90-57 in total strikes

Now 16-8 as a pro, Rojo has eight wins by KO, six by submission, one decision, and one DQ victory. His lone decision win was all the way back in 2012 and his last 13 wins have come early. Eleven of his 14 early wins ended in the first round, two came in round two, and the other occurred in round three. He’s been knocked out once, submitted five times, and has two decision losses. He also had a decision loss to Claudio Puelles on The Ultimate Fighter Latin America, but that was technically an exhibition match. Rojo’s last six wins have all come in the first round and the last time he won a fight that made it past the five minute mark was in 2015.

Overall, Rojo is an aggressive fighter with a ton of heart but has settled into a weight class and tends to wear down late in fights. His last 19 fights have all ended early and he hasn’t required the judges since 2012. He said he had a tough weight cut leading up to his last fight, which could help to explain how bad he looked in the match. Following that loss, he changed up a ton of stuff, moved to Vegas and is now doing his fight camps at Glory MMA instead of Entram Gym. He said the change has helped him a ton, although it’s unclear who will be cornering him on Saturday as last we heard James Krause was suspended. Rojo is a longtime training partner of Brandon Moreno, which may be why the UFC brought him on in the first place. Rojo looked better in his short notice UFC debut at 145 lb than he did in his last fight at 135 lb, so it will be interesting to see how he looks here as he moves back up to 145 lb.

Fight Prediction:

Marshall will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is 11 years younger than the 34-year-old Rojo.

Marshall is a physical wrestler who has shown a solid gas tank and is generally looking to finish opponents with rear-naked chokes, while Rojo is more of a brawler who has struggled with being submitted and gassing out late in fights. He claims that was weight cut related and his last three third round submission losses all occurred down at 135 lb, so perhaps the move back up to 145 lb will help him, but it also means he’ll be dealing with larger opponents. The first two submission losses of Rojo’s career were both at 145 lb and those ended in the first and second rounds. It seems like Rojo can’t healthily cut down to 135 lb, but gets overpowered at 145 lb, leaving him stuck between the two weight classes. One of our issues with Marshall is he seems somewhat stationary during striking exchanges, so it’s possible Rojo can land something clean early on and knock him out. However, if that doesn’t happen then Marshall will likely end up controlling Rojo on the mat until he eventually works his way to a submission win, which seems like the most likely outcome. We don’t trust either one of these two, but we’ll go with Marshall by submission.

Our favorite bet here is “Marshall SUB” at +200.

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DFS Implications:

Marshall’s recent decision win on DWCS would have been good for exactly 122 points on both DraftKings and FanDuel, despite the fight going the distance. That’s encouraging for his chances here, especially as he faces an opponent who’s been submitted five times in his career and has been finished in three of his last four fights. Honestly, it almost seems like too good of a spot. We shouldn’t overlook the fact that Marshall is just 23 years old, has only six pro fights, and will be making his UFC debut here. We have no idea how he’ll fare under the bright lights and in front of a live crowd and this looks like the toughest matchup of his career. We expect the best version of Rojo to show up and if Marshall isn’t able to get this fight to the ground early, Rojo has a decent shot at finishing him. That leaves this as a highly volatile spot where the winner should score well. Marshall’s wrestling-heavy style allows him to score well even in a decision and he also showed the ability to land a good amount of striking volume in his last match. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Rojo’s last six wins have all come in the first round and 15 of his 16 career victories ended early. So his upside is undeniable, but he’s spent the last 4-5 rounds inside the Octagon getting his ass kicked and has yet to notch his first UFC win. He’s been flip flopping between 135 lb and 145 lb for the last few fights and will now be moving back up to 145 lb. Therefore he’s really not giving his body a fair chance to ever fully adjust to a weight class and he also just switched camps to Glory MMA & Fitness with the now infamous James Krause. So who knows who will be in Rojo’s corner on Saturday, making this an even more volatile spot. His last 19 fights have all ended early, so we generally see a high score for whoever wins in his fights, meaning you typically want exposure to both sides. It’s hard to know exactly what we can expect from him here with so many variables in play, but the fact that he’s taking on a much less experienced UFC newcomer is somewhat encouraging for his chances. He’s a low-floor, high-ceiling play who will likely either land an early finish or get dominated on the ground. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #12

Natan Levy

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Levy bounced back from a decision loss in his UFC debut against Rafa Garcia with a decision win over Mike Breeden in his last match. After landing a pair of first round submission wins in his first two pro fights back in 2018, he’s now gone the distance in five of his last six matches. The one exception was a third round submission win on DWCS in November 2020, so he’s seen the third round in six straight fights. In his DWCS win, he appeared content with resting from top position at times and while he finished with eight and half minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just under 11 minutes, he only landed 18 significant strikes and 40 total strikes to go along with two takedowns. So he wasn’t very active on the mat when it came to striking.

In his last fight, Levy came in with a grappling-heavy gameplan as he landed nine takedowns on 16 attempts against Mike Breeden. Levy wasn’t able to control Breeden on the ground for long though, and finished with only 3:39 in control time. Levy slowed late in the match as Breeden put it on him in the third round, but was able to hang on to win a decision. Breeden actually finished ahead in significant strikes 104-92 and in total strikes 115-99, while also landing three takedowns of his own on four attempts.

Now 7-1 as a pro, Levy has three wins by submission and four decisions. Two of those submissions came in the first round of his first two pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0 and 2-1 and overall he hasn’t faced much in terms of competition. Levy started his career at 145 lb, before competing in a 160 lb Catchweight match when he went on DWCS in 2020 and then settling in at 155 lb for his last two fights.

Overall, Levy is a Karate and Kung Fu black belt and he throws solid kicks, but he also likes to get fights to the ground and hunt for submissions. He’s got decent speed but has yet to show the ability to knock opponents out. He’s somewhat well rounded as he can be competitive on the feet and the mat, but he hasn’t really stood out anywhere. He was nearly knocked out on the feet in a 2020 LFA fight but was narrowly able to survive and use his grappling to buy time to recover, which allowed him to go on to win a decision.

Genaro Valdez

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Valdez got finished in the first round of his January 2022 UFC debut against Matt Frevola in a wild brawling three minutes of nonstop action. Valdez’s second most recent fight was also a wild brawl, which ended in a second round TKO win on DWCS in October 2021. We should probably take that win with a grain of salt as it came against an Alaskan fighter in Patrik White, who’s the cousin/training partner of Carlton Minus. Valdez looked like he was gassing out in round one, but dug deep and found the finish in the opening minute of round two.

In his last fight, both guys came out swinging in one of the crazier first rounds you’ll see. Frevola nearly had a finish inside of the opening minute, but Valdez was narrowly able to survive and return to his feet after getting dropped, only to get dropped again. Frevola continued to unload on him, and while Valdez was able to land some shots of his own, Frevola was underrated and continued to throw everything he had at Valdez, dropping him one time after the next. Frevola finally jumped on top of him on the mat and landed ground and pound until the fight was stopped. Frevola finished ahead in significant strikes 60-10 and in total strikes 71-10, while landing an insane four knockdowns in just over three minutes.

Now 10-1 as a pro, Valdez has never been to the judges and has only even seen the third round once. He has seven wins by KO and three by submission, with six of his finishes coming in the first round, three ending in round two and one occurring in the opening two minutes of round three. His only loss came via R1 TKO in his recent UFC debut. Valdez didn’t face much in the way of competition prior to joining the UFC, and it remains to be seen if his chaotic fighting style can be successful at the UFC level.

Overall, Valdez is a brawler who looks to finish all of his opponents early. He’s only been in one fight that lasted longer than seven minutes and considering he was already gassing out in the first round of his last fight, we have serious concerns with his cardio. He’s looked incredibly hittable and sloppy, but will push a crazy pace and often tries to get fights to the mat to look for submissions and ground and pound. He for sure makes for fun fights to watch, whether or not that will translate to wins in the UFC remains to be seen.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’9” but Valdez will have a 1” reach advantage.

These two have contrasting approaches as Levy as seen the third round in six straight fights, with five of those going the distance, while Valdez has only been to the third round once in his career, has never required the judges, and hasn’t been past the six minute mark in his last five bouts, with four of those ending in the first round. Both of these two will look for takedowns, but Valdez is looking to inflict more damage on the mat, while Levy is exclusively looking for submissions on the mat and doesn’t land much in terms of ground and pound. They’ve both shown cardio concerns and the pace Valdez sets would test anyone gastank. It will be interesting to see which fighter is able to dictate the pace, but the only way we see Levy slowing Valdez down is by taking him down and controlling him and Levy really struggled with control in his last match. Levy is the more technical of the two, while Valdez is a wild brawler who looks to overwhelm his opponents. Neither guy has been overly impressive, but we still give the advantage to Levy and expect him to find a finish in this one, most likely in a submission.

Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at -200.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Levy is coming off a massive scoring performance where he notched 120 DraftKings points in a wrestling-heavy decision win. That score was propped up by nine takedowns landed in addition to a solid striking total, but Levy only scored 37 points in a decision loss just before that. This is a great pace-up matchup for Levy against a brawling opponent in Valdez, so it sets up as another good spot for Levy to score well if he wins. We do have some concerns with the slower pace that Levy likes to fight at, but he’ll likely have a tough time dictating that pace against a crazy fighter like Valdez. We’ll be targeting every fight Valdez is in for as long as he remains in the UFC and this one is no different. The odds imply he has a 65% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.

Valdez is coming off the first loss of his career so it will be interesting to see how he responds, but it would be surprising to see him completely change his approach to fighting now. All 11 of his pro fights have ended early, with only one of those making it past the seven minutes mark. He’s a sloppy brawler with cardio concerns, who presents scoring upside for both himself and his opponents. Levy has never been finished in his short career, so this doesn’t look like a great spot for Valdez to pull off the upset, but neither guy has been overly impressive so we’re not completely ruling it out. Whoever wins here should score well so you’ll want exposure to both sides. The odds imply he has a 35% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 11% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Jonathan Pearce

6th UFC Fight (4-1)

Entering this fight on a four fight winning streak, Pearce landed second round finishes in three of those, while his second most recent fight went the distance against UFC newcomer Christian Rodriguez. Pearce got back to his finishing ways most recently, when he landed a second round TKO against Makwan Amirkhani in his last match. Nine of Pearce’s last 10 fights have ended early with him winning all but one of those, which was a 2019 R1 TKO against Joe Lauzon in Pearce’s UFC debut, which took place at 155 lb opposed to 145 lb where all of his other UFC fights have been.

In his last fight, Pearce had to fight through some early adversity against Makwan Amirkhani, who was able to take Pearce down three times in the first round. Amirkhani looked close to setting up his patented Anaconda Choke, but Pearce was able to escape danger. Amirkhani slowed down in round two and Pearce made him pay as he took him down and beat him up until the fight was stopped in the final minute of the round. The fight ended with Pearce ahead in significant strikes 90-11 and in total strikes 144-12. Amirkhani landed 3 of his 7 takedown attempts with 85 seconds of control time, while Pearce landed 4 of his 5 takedown attempts with 4:46 in control time.

Now 13-4 as a pro, Pearce has nine wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. Six of his last seven finishes have come in round two and only one of his 11 finishes ended in the first round, which was all the way back in 2015 in his third pro fights. He has seven second round finishes and three in round three. He has one TKO loss, two by submission, and one decision defeat. All three of his early losses came in the first round, with his two submission losses coming in back-to-back 2016 fights and his TKO loss occurring in his 2019 UFC debut against Joe Lauzon.

Overall, Pearce relies on getting opponents to the mat and beating them up with ground and pound while he threatens submissions. He tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on and finish them in the later rounds. He’s landed at least four takedowns in each of his four UFC wins, with a total of 21 landed on 33 attempts (63.6%). He’s also been taken down 7 times on 14 attempts by his opponents (50% defense).

Darren Elkins

27th UFC Fight (17-9)

Coming off a decision win over Tristan Connelly, Elkins has won three of his last four fights, after losing four straight prior to that. He’s still just 3-5 in his last eight, but the 38-year-old has shown he still has fight left in him. He’s still generally been a really tough guy to finish, and will keep fighting as long as the ref lets him, but he tends to get cracked a lot. Nevertheless, he’s only been finished twice since 2013. And on the other side of things, three of his last four wins ended early, while he’s coming off his first decision victory since 2017. Elkins did notably get knocked out in the first round by Cub Swanson in his second most recent fight.

In his last fight, Elkins was able to dominate the fight on the ground as he landed 5 of his 10 takedown attempts with nearly eight minutes of control time. Elkins finished ahead in significant strikes 75-66 and in total strikes 165-106 as Connelly had no answer for the wrestling of Elkins, who ground out a decision win on the mat.

Elkins is now 27-10 as a pro, with nine wins by KO, five by submission, and 13 decisions. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted once, and has lost five decisions. He had a couple of fights up at 155 lb earlier in his career, but has been exclusively at 145 lb since 2011.

Overall, Elkins is a BJJ brown belt and former college wrestler, who averages 2.8 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but has been somewhat sporadic with his takedown numbers. With that said, he’s landed five or more in five of his last nine wins. He averages 8.4 attempts per 15 minutes, but has just a 33% takedown accuracy. He’s most effective at simply outlasting his opponents, so he finds his most success against opponents with cardio concerns.

Fight Prediction:

Pearce will have a 2” height advantage and is eight years younger than the 38-year-old Elkins.

This sets up as a high-paced wrestling match, although sometimes when you match up a pair of wrestlers it turns into more of a striking battle than expected. Both of these two have been prone to getting taken down at times, as Pearce has a 58% takedown defense compared to the similar 56% defense of Elkins. They’re also somewhat similar in the sense that they tend to wear their opponents down and finish them in the later rounds. Four of Elkins’ five early losses occurred in the first round and he’s known for his cardio. All three of Pearce’s early losses also came in round one, so when these two do get finished it normally comes early. So it will be interesting to see if either guy can buck that trend and wear the other down and finish them late, and we’re expecting a grueling fight. While Elkins is a tough guy to put away later in fights, we’ll still say Pearce finishes him with ground and pound in the second round, but it’s not the most comfortable pick and seeing Elkins outlast Pearce and finish him in round three wouldn’t be entirely shocking.

Our favorite bet here is “Pearce Win & Over 1.5 Rounds” at -135.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Pearce has been a scoring machine in his four UFC wins, averaging 125 DraftKings points, with three scores of 123 or more. His three slate-breaking scores all came in second round finishes, while he scored “just” 96 points in his lone decision victory. He does a great job of racking up takedowns and ground strikes and he’s landed 21 takedowns in his four victories, with at least four in each of those. He tends to wear on his opponents and finish them on the mat late in fights, but Elkins is known for his ability to survive a beating and outlast his opponents, so it will be interesting to see whose gas tank lasts longer. While we’re expecting this fight to play out on the mat, there’s always a chance neither guy wants to test the strength of the other and it stays standing more than you would think. While that’s possible, neither guy has an exceptional takedown defense and we’re still expecting a grueling wrestling match that should fill up the stat sheet and score well for the winner. The odds imply Pearce has a 79% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.

While Elkins has gone just 3-5 in his last eight fights, he’s now won three of his last four and put up slate-breaking scores in each of those wins as he totalled 117, 122, and 124 DraftKings points. He’s shown the ability to score well even without a finish and at his dirt cheap price tag it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups if he pulls off the upset. With that said, this looks like a tough matchup for Elkins as he goes against a fellow wrestler who also tends to outlast the opposition and grind his way to wins on the mat. It’s always harder to predict how wrestler on wrestler matchups will play out as they can go a variety of ways, so you’ll want to have exposure to both sides here without going all in on the fight. The odds imply Elkins has a 21% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

Marc Diakiese

13th UFC Fight (7-5)

Diakiese is coming off a pair of smothering decision wins in two dream matchups against one-dimensional strikers, after going just 2-5 in his previous seven fights. After knocking out two of his first three UFC opponents, Diakiese has now gone the distance in 7 of his last 9 fights (4-3), with the other two ending in guillotine submission losses. The last time Diakiese finished anybody was in 2017 when he knocked out Teemu Packalen, who went 1-3 in the UFC. Both of Diakiese’s knockout wins in the UFC occurred in England, as did his most recent decision victory. The majority of Diakiese’s UFC career has been fought internationally (5-2) and he’s just 2-3 when fighting in the US, with both of those wins going the distance, but two of the three losses ending in submissions.

In his last fight, Diakiese got the fight to the ground 15 seconds into the first round, which was the theme of the fight. Everytime Hadzovic was able to return to his feet, Diakiese dragged him back to the mat. Hadzovic landed just five significant strikes in the fight and was never able to get anything going. Diakiese finished with eight takedowns landed on 11 attempts with 13:35 in control time. Diakiese didn’t inflict much damage on the ground though, and finished ahead in significant strikes 13-5 and in total strikes 78-20 with no submission attempts.

Now 16-5 as a pro, Diakiese has six wins by KO, one by submission, and nine decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, and has three decision losses. Six of his last seven fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2021 R1 submission loss to Rafael Alves. Diakiese’s only two finishes in the UFC came in 2016 and 2017 against low-level opponents who finished their respective UFC careers 0-3 and 1-3.

Overall, Diakiese made a name for himself with his flashy striking, but he’s consistently mixed in takedowns throughout his career and absolutely dominated his last two opponents on the mat as he landed 19 takedowns on 29 attempts in those two fights with over 25 minutes of total control time. Looking at his entire 12-fight UFC career, he’s landed 35 takedowns on 74 attempts (47.3% accuracy). He’s 6-1 in UFC fights where he’s landed at least one takedown, but just 1-4 when he’s failed to land a takedown.

Michael Johnson

27th UFC Fight (12-14)

Coming off a close split-decision loss to Jamie Mullarkey, Johnson is just 1-5 in his last six fights, with his only win since 2018 coming in his second most recent match against a washed up Alan Patrick, who also hadn’t won a fight since 2018. Prior to that, Johnson lost a decision to Clay Guida, who was able to take Johnson down three times on seven attempts. That’s especially impressive considering Johnson has only been taken down six other times in his other 17 most recent fights. Johnson took on another grappler just before that in Thiago Moises, and after dominating the first round, Johnson got submitted in the opening 30 seconds of round two.

In his last fight, we saw a somewhat slower start overall before Johnson dropped Mullarkey in the final two minutes of the first round. However, Mullarkey was able to recover and return to his feet and then hurt Johnson late in the round just before the round ended. The strong finish to the round was enough for two of the three judges to give the round to Mullarkey, despite getting knocked down earlier. The momentum at the end of round one carried over into round two for Mullarkey, as he began to pull away in striking and won the round on all three scorecards. However, Johnson finished the fight strong in a closer third round, which he won on all three scorecards. That left the decision dependent on the first round, which came down to a single swing judge and Mullarkey won a split decision. The fight ended with Mullarkey ahead 96-66 in significant strikes and 96-68 in total strikes, while both fighters failed to land a takedown on two attempts apiece.

Now 20-18 as a pro, Johnson has nine wins by KO, two by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted nine times, and has seven decision losses. His last 11 fights have all made it out of the first round, with seven seeing round three, and five going the distance. While 11 of his 20 career wins have come early, he only has two finishes since 2013 and only one in the last six years. Johnson has spent most of his career at 155 lb, but moved down to 145 lb in 2018, where he went 2-2 before moving back up to 155 lb in 2019. Since moving back up, he’s gone just 1-4, with two of those fights ending in the second round (1-1) and three going the distance (0-3). Two of his last three and four of his last seven decisions have been split/majority. All 11 of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with eight in round one and three in round two. However, three of his last four finishes came by R2 KO.

Overall, Johnson relies almost entirely on his striking despite the fact that he wrestled in college. He’s only landed 10 takedowns in 26 UFC fights and one in his last six. However, he does have a solid 79% takedown defense and he’s only been taken down a total of 7 times on 32 opponent attempts in his last 10 fights. He’s been vulnerable to having his rangy limbs attacked by submissions through leg locks and kimuras. Johnson has had such a bizarre career that it’s hard to know what to expect out of him. He finds ways to lose fights he’s supposed to win and win fights he’s supposed to lose.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’10” with a 73” reach, but Diakiese is seven years younger than the 36-year-old Johnson.

This sets up as a much tougher matchup for Diakiese compared to his last two, despite Johnson’s advancing age and recent struggles. Johnson has a wrestling background and a really solid 79% takedown defense, which will make it much tougher for Diakiese to find the same wrestling success that he had in his recent two dream matchups. With that said, Diakiese is also a solid striker and he certainly can hang with Johnson on the feet, but that will at least make for a competitive fight, opposed to the one-way traffic we saw in Diakiese’s last two fights. Both of these two fighters have been prone to getting submitted, but neither of them represents much of a submission threat, so it’s unlikely we see the fight end in that manner. Diakiese has never been knocked out, while Johnson has only been knocked out twice in 38 pro fights. While they both have the power to finish the other, it’s more likely that this fight goes the distance. Johnson has lost the last three decisions he’s been to, but two of those were split/majority, so at least he’s been able to keep things close. If he can keep this fight standing, we could see another close decision here, with a slight chance he could also land an early knockout. It’s still far more likely that Diakiese will get his hand raised in a decision through a combination of striking and grappling, and that’s our official prediction, but we like Johnson’s chances of keeping this fight closer than the odds suggest.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +450.

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DFS Implications:

Diakiese is coming off two massive wrestling performances where he scored 113 and 119 DraftKings points respectively. Prior to that pair of dream matchups, he had only topped 97 DraftKings points once in his first 10 UFC fights. He’ll face a tougher test here as Johnson has a solid 79% takedown defense and has only been taken down seven times in his last 10 fights combined. While Diakiese may still find some success getting this fight to the mat, he’s highly unlikely to put up the type of numbers we saw in his last two fights. The only fighter to get Johnson down more than twice in his last 18 fights was Clay Guida, who landed three takedowns against Johnson and scored 80 DraftKings points and 72 points on FanDuel in a decision win. Diakiese will likely score closer to that than his last two scores with a decision win here, but the field will likely be chasing recent results to some extent. That should drive up Diakiese’s ownership and makes him a less interesting tournament play. To return value at his high price tag, he’ll likely need a finish despite his massive decision scores in his last two outings. And with that in mind, the last time Diakiese finished anybody was in 2017, in his third UFC fight. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.

Johnson has lost five of his last six fights and is now 36 years old, but has been in several close matches and still has knockout power. He scored 103 DraftKings in his one win over that stretch, which ended in a second round knockout, showing some potential upside, although that came against a struggling opponent and Diakiese has never been knocked out in his career. In Johnson’s last four decision wins, he’s only averaged 63 DRaftKings points, failing to top 76 points in any of those. Considering he’ll also likely be defending takedowns for much of this much, it seems unlikely that he’ll score well without a finish. Supporting that theory, he only scored 38 DraftKings points in his recent split-decision loss. Even at his cheap price tag, Johnson likely needs a finish here to be useful, as it will be tougher follower scoring underdogs to serve as value plays on a slate this large. Johnson’s second most recent early win was all the way back in 2016, when he impressively knocked Dustin Poirier out in the first round. The odds imply Johnson has a 26% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Scott Holtzman

13th UFC Fight (7-5)

Stepping into the final fight of his career, Holtzman has already announced he’ll be retiring after this match and honestly, we kind of thought the 39-year-old already had ridden off into the sunset following a pair of knockouts in his last two matches. He hasn’t competed since April 2021 and only has one fight since August 2020. In fairness to him, he lost to guys at the top of the division in Mateusz Gamrot and Beneil Dariush.

In his last fight, Holtzman never got much going against a really tough Mateusz Gamrot, who was able to take Holtzman down twice on five attempts, but only finished with 50 seconds of control time. However, Gamrot was in control of the striking exchanges and finished ahead in significant strikes 39-10 and in total strikes 41-10 before knocking Holtzman out early in the second round.

Now 14-5 as a pro, Holtzman has five wins by KO, two by submission, and seven decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has three decision losses. He hasn’t submitted anybody since 2015, with his only other submission loss coming in his 2012 pro debut. Fifteen of his last 16 fights have made it to the second round, with the one exception being a R1 KO loss to Dariush in his second most recent fight. Seven of his 12 UFC matches have gone the full 15 minutes, but he does have three finishes with the organization, including a 2015 R3 rear-naked choke in his debut, a 2018 R3 KO, and a 2019 R2 KO.

Overall, Holtzman is a former hockey player but he is a BJJ black belt. He did a good job of landing takedowns earlier in his career, but hasn’t landed more than one in any of his last six fights and seems to be slowing down as he reaches the end of his career. Three of his last four fights have ended in KO/TKOs, but he’s still gone the distance in over half of his UFC fights. It’s never a good sign when fighters announce their retirement before their last fight, but at least Holtzman will get to face a fellow aging fighter in his last rodeo with the UFC.

Clay Guida

34th UFC Fight (17-16)

Continuing to struggle to string wins together, Guida has alternated wins and losses over his last five matches and is just 2-4 in his last six. The last time he won two fights in a row was 2017. He’s coming off a first round kneebar submission loss to Claudio Puelles, in a fight that Guida idiotically initiated the grappling in. Just prior to that, Guida was nearly finished in the first round by Leonardo Santos, but was able to survive and Santos gassed out, allowing Guida to finish him in round two. Looking back one fight further, Guida suffered a split-decision loss to Mark O. Madsen, after winning a decision over Michael Johnson and losing a decision to Bobby Green.

In his last fight, Guida idiotically shot for a takedown 40 seconds into the first round and put the fight exactly where Puelles wanted it. Puelles quickly began looking for submissions off his back. While Guida was able to defend the initial attempts, Puelles was slickly able to roll into a kneebar and immediately force a tap midway through the round. The fight ended with Guida ahead 3-1 in significant strikes and Puelles leading 11-4 in total strikes.

Now 37-32 as a pro, Guida has seven wins by KO, 14 submissions, 15 decision victories, and one Other/NA. He’s been knocked out twice, has 11 submission losses, eight decision defeats, and one Other/NA. Apparently Guida has been fighting so long they weren’t even properly documenting some of his early career fights, hence the Other/NA results. Guida has only finished two opponents in the last 11 years—a 2017 R1 TKO win over Joe Lauzon and a2021 R2 submission win over Leonardo Santos. Guida has gone 6-2 in his last eight decisions, although he’s lost two of the last three.

Overall, Guida’s kinetic fighting style relies on him outlasting his opponents to win decisions. He’s been prone to getting submitted, with 11 of his 22 career losses ending in submissions. He turned pro all the way back in 2003 but still has cardio for days at 40 years old. He has a wrestling background, but isn’t especially dangerous anywhere and generally relies on his opponents tiring out to win fights.

Fight Prediction:

Holtzman will have a 2” height advantage, but Guida will have a 1” reach advantage. Holtzman is one year younger than the 40-year-old Guida.

It rarely goes well for fighters when they announce their retirement leading up to their final match, which is exactly what Holtzman did here. He also hasn’t fought in 20 months or won a fight since February 2020. However, this will also be a major step down in competition for him so overall this is somewhat of a tricky spot to decipher. Guida is generally looking to wrestle, but is prone to getting submitted and Holtzman is a BJJ black belt, but rarely submits anybody. Holtzman has been prone to getting knocked out lately, but Guida isn’t much of a knockout threat, with his last KO win coming in 2017. This feels like a fight that should go the distance, but if Holtzman is already mentaly checked out it’s always possible he quits if Guida wears him out. That still doesn’t feel super likely, and we think this ends in a close decision. We’ll say Guida gets his hand raised, but this one feels like a coin flip.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -175.

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DFS Implications:

Holtzman has averaged a solid 106 DraftKings points in his seven UFC victories, but only scored 86 points in his last win, which was two and a half years ago. His second most recent victory was all the way back in 2019, which was the last time he finished anybody. Guida has only been knocked out twice in 59 pro fights, but has been prone to being submitted. While Holtzman is a BJJ black belt, he hasn’t submitted anybody since his 2015 UFC debut and hasn’t landed more than a single takedown in any of his last six fights. He’s already announced he’ll be retiring following this fight and hasn’t competed in 20 months following a pair of knockout losses. So overall is littered with red flags and is a tough guy to get behind. Working in his favor, he projects to go low owned, so if he can either finish Guida or put on a throwback dominant wrestling performance then he would have the chance to be a key piece in tournament winning lineups. However, both of those are unlikely and Guida has only been taken down twice in his last 13 fights. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.

Guida is generally looking to grind out grappling-heavy decisions, which keeps him in play on DraftKings more than FanDuel. He’s just 2-4 in his last six fights, so he’s not a guy you can depend on, but he will push the pace and try to tire out the opposition. Considering Holtzman hasn’t fought in so long and already announced his retirement, it’s hard to know where he’ll be both physically and mentality, but those are botha boost for Guida’s upside. Just keep in mind, Guida has never landed more than 80 significant strikes in any of his 33 UFC fights, and he’ll either need a finish, something he’s only done twice since 2011, or else a grappling heavy decision win to have any chance of scoring well. Holtzman has a 66% takedown defense and while he’s only been taken down three times in his last four fights, there have been three UFC matches where he was taken down five or more times. He went on to lose decisions in all three of those fights with his opponents putting up DK/FD scores of 97/98, 114/125, and 84/72. That leaves us with some optimism that Guida can grind out a wrestling-heavy decision win and put up a usable score. The odds imply Guida has a 39% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Emily Ducote

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Ducote is coming off a decision win in her UFC debut against Jessica Penne and just before that she had notched back-to-back Strawweight championship wins with Invicta. While she only has one UFC fight under her belt, she faced several current and former UFC fighters prior to joining the organization, with wins over Danielle Taylor and Juliana Lima, and a split-decision loss to Kanako Murata. She also fought another UFC fighter in Emily Whitmire back in her 2015 pro debut. Ducote has won her last four and six of her last seven fights.

In her last fight, Ducote was able to destroy the lead leg of Penne, landing 51 leg strikes in the match. She was also able to stuff all eight of Penne’s takedown attempts and finished ahead 116-63 in significant strikes and 117-68 in total strikes as she cruised to decision win. Ducote never attempted any takedowns of her own in the fight.

Now 12-6 as a pro, Ducote has three wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and five decisions. All three of her KO/TKO wins occurred in the first two rounds of her last five fights. Three of her four submission wins occurred in rounds two and three, with her only first round submission ending in a 2017 rear-naked choke. She’s never been knocked out, but was submitted once in the 5th round of a 2017 Bellator Flyweight title fight. Ducote followed that up with two more losses in Bellator at 125 lb, before leaving the organization and dropping back down to 115 lb in 2019, where she’s since gone 6-1. She started her career at 115 lb in 2015, but moved up to 125 lb in 2016 and four of her six career losses came at 125 lb, with both of her 115 lb losses coming against fighters who are currently in the UFC. Outside of her one early loss, Ducote also has five decision defeats and is just 5-5 with the judges in her career. Three of her last five wins have come by KO/TKO, after she failed to land any knockouts in her first 12 pro fights.

Overall, Ducote is a patient counter striker who also wrestled in both high-school and college, but didn’t even attempt a takedown in five of her last six fights. While she hasn’t mixed in much offensive wrestling lately, she’s a BJJ black belt and will look for armbars off her back. She’s also a black belt in Taekwondo.

Angela Hill

22nd UFC Fight (9-12)

Hill snapped a three fight losing streak with a decision win over Loopy Godinez in her last fight, but is still just 2-5 in her last seven matches. With that said, she’s habitually in close fights and almost always finds herself on the wrong side of split decisions. Prior to her recent win, Hill faced a gauntlet of tough opponents in Virna Jandiroba, Amanda Lemos, and Tecia Torres and lost decisions in all three. With that said, many people scored the fight against Amanda Lemos in Hill’s favor and even the judges were split.

In her last fight, Hill did a good job of remaining on her feet, as Godinez was only able to land one of her six takedown attempts. The striking was close, with Godinez finishing ahead 92-85 in significant strikes and 98-88 in total strikes, while both fighters landed a single takedown. The fight took place in Hill’s backyard of San Diego and all three judges scored it 29-28 in her favor.

Now 14-12 as a pro, Hill has five wins by KO/TKO and nine decision victories. Three of her five knockouts occurred in her first six pro fights, with two of those coming in Invicta. Her only two early wins in her last 19 fights came in a 2019 R3 TKO victory via doctor stoppage and a 2020 R2 TKO against a helpless Hannah Cifers. Since that January 2020 finish of Cifers, Hill has gone to eight straight decisions (3-5). She has never been knocked out, but she’s been submitted in the first round twice (2015 & 2019) and has 10 decision losses. She’s been to five split decisions in her career, losing the last four of those and has never won a split decision in the UFC. Seventeen of her 21 UFC fights have gone the distance.

Overall, Hill has always been a decent striker, although she’s not much of a finishing threat and relies more on volume. To her credit, she’s been improving her grappling in recent years. In her first 16 UFC fights, Hill landed just six takedowns, while in her last five fights she’s landed six. She has a 76% career takedown defense and just looking at her last 11 fights, she’s been taken down 11 times on 53 attempts (79.2% defense). No one has ever taken her down more than three times in any of her 21 UFC fights. When she’s not having to defend takedowns, Hill lands a good amount of striking volume, averaging 5.36 SSL/min in her career.

Fight Prediction:

Hill will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while Ducote is nine years younger than the 37-year-old Hill.

It seems like no matter who Hill faces we’re always expecting it to end in a close, likely split, decision. She’s fought to eight straight decisions and three of those were split, with none of those splits breaking her way. She’s a durable solid striker, who has shored up her grappling in recent years, so she always makes for a tough fight. This will be a much tougher test for Ducote than she faced in her recent debut and we expect Hill to be the busier fighter. That may leave Ducote reliant on landing the more impactful shots or mixing in more wrestling, which she hasn’t used much lately but does have in her back pocket. We expect this to end like most of Hill’s fights, in close decision that has a good chance of being split. With that said, we like Hill’s chance to get her hand raised, despite her dubious track record with the judges.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +350.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Ducote put up a big striking total in her recent UFC debut, but didn’t mix in any wrestling and still only scored 77 DraftKings points in a decision win. That came against a one-dimensional grappler in Jessica Penne, who’s extremely hittable. Ducote will face a much tougher test here, although Hill does average 4.98 SSA/min (5th most on the slate). If Ducote mixes in some wrestling she could potentially serve as a value play in a decision win, but we’re not counting on that because she hasn’t even attempted a takedown in five of her last six fights. That likely leaves her reliant on finding a finish to score well, and Hill has never been knocked out. It’s not impossible that Hill takes Ducote down and then Ducote locks up an armbar, but she only has one submission win on her record. The odds imply she has a 54% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

It’s always hard to get excited about playing Hill in DFS as she’s only scored above 86 DraftKings points once in her last 20 fights and has lost three of her last four matches. She’s averaged just 75 DraftKings points in her last five decision wins and has only landed two finishes in her last 20 fights (2019 & 2020). So while there’s a slight chance she could serve as a value play in a decision win, she’s unlikely to crack tournament winning lineups on a slate this large with so many other underdogs she’ll need to outscore. That likely leaves her reliant on landing a finish to score well, and Ducote has never been knocked out. So while Hill should have a decent floor, we don’t see much of a ceiling here. The odds imply she has a 46% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Niko Price

15th UFC Fight (7-5, 2 NC)

After his first 11 UFC fights all ended early, Price has now fought to three straight decisions and hasn’t finished anybody since 2019. He’s also coming off his first win since 2019 in a close decision over Alex Oliveira, who was in the midst of a five fight losing streak and has since been cut. Price was notably the only fighter not to finish Oliveira in those five losses. Prior to the win over Oliveira, Price lost a decision to Michel Pereira after fighting a washed up Donald Cerrone to a draw, which was later overturned to a No Contest when Price tested positive for THC.

In his last fight, we saw more time spent grappling than expected. Price led in control time 4:50-3:14, while both fighters landed a single takedown. Oliveira actually finished one significant strike ahead at 65-64, but Price led in total strikes 108-83 and did enough to win a unanimous 29-28 decision as he finished strong in the match by taking Oliveira down and closing out in top position with ground and pound. That very well may have been what won him the decision as the second half of the fight was very close.

Now 15-5 as a pro (plus two No Contests), Price has 10 wins by KO, three by submission, and just two decision victories. Eight of his knockouts came in round one, with the other two ending in round two. He also had a 2017 R2 KO win overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC. All three of his submission wins also occurred in the first two rounds. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has one decision loss. He also had a draw that was overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC (again). While he’s only been to four decisions in 22 pro fights, three of those came in his last three outings.

Overall, Price has historically been a high paced brawler who averages 5.16 SSL/min and 5.67 SSA/min, but he’s dialed things back some in his last few fights. In his last two fights, he’s only averaged 4.67 SSL/min and 5.23 SSA/min and he looked to grapple more in his last fight than he had in the past. He is a BJJ brown belt, but he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and is generally looking to knock opponents out.

Phil Rowe

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Rowe bounced back from a decision loss to Gabe Green in his 2021 UFC debut with a pair of second round knockout wins over low-level opponents in Orion Cosce and Jason Witt in his last two matches. Despite winning those two fights, Rowe was controlled for extended periods of time in both matches before he was able to return to space and land the pair of knockouts. A year and a half prior to his debut, Rowe punched his ticket to the UFC when he landed a third round KO win on DWCS. Rowe got knocked down early in that 2019 DWCS match and looked to be in trouble, however, he was able to recover and really turned it on in the second round before finishing things just as the third round started. His last five fights all made it out of the first round, but only one of those required the judges. So he’s consistently been a slow starter, but has found ways to finish opponents later in fights.

In his last fight, Rowe got taken down by Witt a minute into the fight. Rowe was able to return to his feet 30 seconds later, but Witt immediately returned him to the mat. Witt basically just layed on Rowe for the rest of the round before Rowe again returned to his feet towards the end. Witt immediately looked to return the fight to the mat in round two, landing two more takedowns, but Rowe was once again able to return to his feet and landed a combination of punches to put Witt away without much resistance. Each fighter only landed eight significant strikes in the fight, while Witt led in total strikes 25-8. Witt also landed 4 of his 7 takedown attempts with 5:11 of control time.

Now 9-3 as a pro, Rowe has five wins by KO and four by submission. He has three first round finishes, five in round two, and one in the opening seconds of round three. His last four finishes all occurred in the later rounds. The only time he’s ever been finished himself came in his 2014 pro debut when he was knocked out two minutes into the first round. He’s never been submitted, but he has lost both of the decisions he’s been to. After losing the first two fights of his pro career, Rowe has now won 9 of his last 10 matches. However, one important thing to keep in mind is that Rowe’s pre-UFC wins came against much lower level competition. Here are the records of his first nine pro opponents beginning with his two early career losses: 1-0 (L), 0-0 (L), 0-1, 1-1, 0-1, 0-3, 1-2, 4-5, and 7-1 (Leon Shahbazyan on DWCS). Rowe has also competed in four grappling matches since joining the UFC and lost all four, getting submitted in two of those.

Overall, Rowe has a massive 6’3” frame for the 170 lb weight class and can generate good power with a long striking range. However, the trade off is that he has skinnier legs and tends to get them badly chewed up, as we saw in his UFC debut. He’s also been very prone to getting taken down and controlled and between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he was taken down 9 times on 17 opponent attempts (47.1% defense). He was controlled for over five minutes in each of his last two fights, despite both of those fights ending in the second round. Rowe has a background in basketball, not martial arts, and was a self-described terrible fighter when he first started MMA. He does train with Jacare Souza and Rodolfo Vieira, so his grappling should theoretically be improving, but his defensive wrestling has still been poor. Rowe also notably missed weight by 2.5 lb for his second most recent fight, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.

UPDATE: Rowe missed weight by 2.5 lb!

Fight Prediction:

Rowe will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.

Rowe has been vulnerable to being taken down, controlled, and having his legs beaten up. While Price isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed and you never know if he’ll actually fight intelligently, he should be able to attack those weaknesses. He’s landed 125 leg strikes in his last four fights and attempted three takedowns in his last match, landing one with nearly five minutes of control time, showing that he’s trying to incorporate more wrestling opposed to just brawling with opponents. When you look at Price’s UFC losses, they’ve all come against tough opponents, (Michel Pereira, Vicente Luque twice, Geoff Neal, and Abdul Razak Alhassan back when he was good). Phil Rowe is not on the same level as those other guys and Price has been able to come out ahead against less talented opposition. With that said, Price has been finished in four of his five career losses and has been prone to getting sucked into brawls. And while Rowe has several holes in his game, he is a long, powerful striker, with clear finishing ability. So if Price just bites down on his mouthpiece and comes in looking to bang, it’s entirely possible he gets knocked out. However, that’s not really how he’s been fighting lately as we’ve seen a more composed version of Niko Price in his last few outings since he got knocked out by Vicente Luque in 2020 and then had his 37th child. The big question is whether Price will continue to fight more strategically or if fighting in front of his home Florida crowd will bring back the old brawling version of Price that makes for barnburner bangers. If he keeps his emotions in check, Price should have no problem grinding out a decision win through a combination of striking and grappling with a healthy amount of leg strikes mixed in. However, if this turns into a brawl then both guys are capable of finishing the other, but we would still give the advantage to Price. Regardless of how it plays out, we like Price to win.

Our favorite bet here is Price’s ML at -140.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Price has averaged 101 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, but is coming off his first decision victory with the organization, which scored just 78 points. After his first 11 UFC fights all ended early, he’s now fought to three straight decisions and has dialed back his brawling approach some. Perhaps fighting in front of his home Florida crowd will cause him to revert back to his past self, but his upside has been somewhat capped in his last couple of matches. This does look like a good matchup for Price to score well, as Rowe has been prone to getting taken down and controlled with just a 47% takedown defense. Rowe is a dangerous striker, so Price has the potential to get knocked out, but he also has a good chance of landing a finish of his own. Up until his last match, we’ve historically seen the winner in Price’s fights score well in DFS, so we’re generally looking to target any fight he’s in. While he didn’t score well in his lone UFC decision win, it’s still possible that Price could serve as a value play even without a finish if he fills up the stat sheet with a combination of grappling and striking and Gabe Green was notably able to score 105 DraftKings points in a decision win over Rowe with the help of two knockdowns. The odds imply Price has a 57% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Rowe is coming off a pair of second round knockout wins, but because he was controlled for the entire fight leading up to his most recent finish, he only scored 83 DraftKings points in his most recent finish. Prior to that, he totaled 100 points in a fight where he was able to land more striking volume. We expect this to be more of a higher paced brawl, creating a ton of scoring potential. Working in Rowe’s favor, Price has been finished in four of his five career losses and hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2018. This fight will take place in front of Price’s home Florida crowd, which could motivate him to try and put on a good show opposed to capitalizing on Rowe’s struggles with being taken down and controlled. Rowe is huge for the weight class and is a powerful striker. Landing a knockout will be his best path to victory, and 100% of his career wins have come early. At his cheap price tag, it’s tougher to see him getting left out of winning lineups if he finds a finish. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Kyle Daukaus

7th UFC Fight (2-3, NC)

Daukaus will be stepping back inside the Octagon sooner than originally expected after getting his face broken by Roman Dolidze this past June. After suffering two cheek fractures and an orbital fracture in that fight, Daukaus had a plate installed over his cheek and a mesh attached under his eye socket to repair the damage. He had said he was expecting to be out for a year, but the doctors told him it wouldn’t take nearly that long and he was cleared within a few months of the surgery. Prior to suffering the first early loss of his career in the R1 KO loss to Dolidze, Daukaus notched his first official early win in the UFC with a first round submission against Jamie Pickett, who took the fight on short notice. Daukaus had actually submitted Kevin Holland in the first round just before that, but an accidental clash of heads caused that fight to be ruled a No Contest. Leading up to the string of first round finishes, Daukaus had fought to three straight decisions (1-2) in his first three UFC fights.

In his last fight, Daukaus got dropped by Dolidze 30 seconds into the first round with a combination of punches. Still in the grasp of Dolidze, Daukaus was able to return to his feet, but Dolidze landed a well placed knee to the head of Daukaus that spilled him back to the mat and the fight was quickly stopped as Dolidze unloaded with ground and pound. The fight ended with Dolidze ahead 8-4 in significant strikes and 10-5 in total strikes.

Now 11-3 as a pro, Daukaus has nine wins by submission and two decisions. Four of those submissions ended in round one, four more ended in round two, and one came in round three. He’s been knocked out once and has two decision losses. Four of his submission wins came in the first round, four more ended in round two, and one ended in round three. Six of those finishes have come by Brabo/D’Arce Choke, which has been his go to move.

Overall, Daukaus is a BJJ black belt and a decent striker, but has struggled at times with his takedown accuracy, as he’s only been able to land 11 of his 35 takedown attempts (31.4% accuracy) between his six UFC fights and DWCS appearance. While he’s a capable striker, he’s never knocked anybody out and lost both of his UFC fights where he failed to land a takedown. This will be the final fight of his current contract and Daukaus said he thinks he needs a finish to get resigned and the UFC opted not to renegotiate his deal before this match.

Eryk Anders

15th UFC Fight (6-7, NC)

Looking to snap a two fight skid, Anders is coming off a close split-decision loss to Jun Yong Park, after getting submitted in the first round by Andre Muniz just before that. Anders’ only official win in his last five fights came in a 2021 decision over Darren Stewart up at 205 lb. Anders nearly finished Stewart in his previous fight, but idiotically threw an illegal knee after he had Stewart nearly out in the first round and the fight was ruled a No Contest. Anders is just 3-6 plus the No Contest in his last 10 fights and wins have been few and far between for the 35-year-old.

In his last fight, Anders relentlessly looked for takedowns against Park, but was only able to land 3 of his 24 attempts with 4:45 in control time. Park failed to land his only takedown attempt in the fight, but did finish ahead in significant strikes 105-65 and in total strikes 108-75. One judge gave the fight to Anders, but the other gave it to Park.

Now 14-7 as a pro, Anders has eight wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out once and submitted another time, with his other five losses going the distance. Four of the 10 decisions he’s been to have been split (1-3). Anders has bounced between 185 lb and 205 lb throughout his career, with four of his 14 UFC fights taking place at 205 lb (2-2), including his lone TKO loss, and his other 10 UFC fights occurring at 185 lb (4-5, NC). Anders has gone 0-3 plus a No Contest in his last four fights at 185 lb, with his last win at the weight class coming in a 2019 split-decision against Gerald Meerschaert. The last time Anders finished an opponent at 185 lb was late in the third round of a 2018 fight, with his only other early UFC win at 185 lb coming in a first round KO in his 2017 UFC debut. Ander’s only other finish in the UFC came up at 205 lb against an absolutely terrible opponent in Vinicius Moreira, who was finished in under six minutes in all four of his UFC fights before being cut.

Overall, Anders is a fairly well rounded UFC veteran who’s a BJJ brown belt, but not much of a submission threat. He trains out of Fight Ready with Henry Cejudo and claims to have been working more on his grappling lately. Supporting that claim, he did shoot for an absurd 24 takedowns in his last fight, but was only able to land three of those. We generally see Anders involved in slower paced affairs and he’s never landed more than 79 significant strikes in a UFC fight, averaging just 3.26 SSL/min in his UFC career. Anders has only been taken down nine times on 36 opponent attempts (75% defense) and generally isn’t an easy guy to get down. However, it’s worth pointing out that Anders just got submitted by Andre Petroski in the first round of a grappling match via Anaconda Choke. Anders is a former Alabama linebacker who had stints in the NFL, CFL and AFL and is massive at 185 lb, which generally makes for tough weight cuts. He had a November 2020 fight canceled due to weight cutting issues, so it will be important to monitor him closely on the scale Friday.

Fight Prediction:

Daukaus will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also six years younger than the 35-year-old Anders.

Both of these two could really use a win here and Daukaus is fighting for his job. Neither one of them has been overly impressive, but they’re both decent fighters and this could end up being a close fight. Daukaus is generally looking to get fights to the ground, but has just a 31% takedown accuracy and Anders has a solid 75% defense, so it will be interesting to see if Daukaus is able to land any takedowns. While Anders appears to be the more powerful of the two, he’s not a very explosive striker and it would be surprising to see him knock Daukaus out. Considering Daukaus is coming off the first early loss of his career, it’s hard to know how he’ll respond to getting his face broken less than six months ago, in addition to the added pressure of fighting for his job. That does add some uncertainty to his side of things, but he looks like the quicker fighter and is capable of remaining competitive on the feet if he can’t get Anders down. If Daukaus is able to get the fight to the ground, he’s definitely live to lock up a submission, but we’ll say he wins a close decision here.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +450.

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DFS Implications:

Daukaus is coming off the first KO loss of his career, followed by a lengthy recovery process after Roman Dolidze broke his face. He’s also fighting for his job here in the final fight of his contract. Both of those add some uncertainty to the mix, but they could also motivate him to try even harder to get the fight to the ground and lock up an early submission. In his lone early win in the UFC, Daukaus scored 118 DraftKings points in a first round submission win as the clock expired. In his one UFC decision victory Daukaus scored 91 DraftKings points, showing a somewhat decent floor, but not a high enough one to end up in tournament winning lineups without a finish. Daukaus has never knocked anybody out and Anders is a BJJ brown belt with a solid 75% takedown defense who has only been submitted once in his career. So on paper this doesn’t look like a great spot for Daukaus to secure the finish he needs to score well, but in recent interviews he has been talking about how he’s really gunning for a finish here to secure a new UFC contract. Take that for what it’s worth though and the only time Daukaus has finished anybody in the UFC was when he submitted short notice replacement Jamie Pickett. The odds imply Daukaus has a 66% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Anders has averaged a somewhat respectable 89 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, but scored just 81 and 56 points in his last two victories, which both went the distance. The last time he won a fight at 185 lb was all the way back in 2019 and he scored just 56 points in the split-decision victory over Gerald Meerschaert, in a similar matchup to this next one. That’s not very encouraging for his chances here and even at his cheap price tag he likely needs a finish to be useful. He only averages 3.26 SSL/min, and this is a risky matchup for Anders to look for takedowns as he goes against a superior grappler in Daukaus. That seemingly leaves Ander reliant on landing a knockout to crack tournament winning lineups. And even in his second most recent knockout, he still only scored 85 DraftKings points as it came in the third round. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Jack Hermansson

16th UFC Fight (10-5)

Hermansson had been scheduled to face Derek Brunson, but Brunson dropped out and Dolidze was announced as the replacement on November 22nd.

Coming off a decision win over Chris Curtis, Hermansson has alternated wins and losses for seven straight fights. Prior to that win, Hermansson lost a five-round decision to Sean Strickland, after winning a three-round decision over Edmen Shahbazyan. Hermansson lost another five-round decision to Marvin Vettori just before that, and his last four fights have all gone the distance. The last time he finished anybody was in July 2020 when he submitted Kelvin Gastelum in the first round with a heel hook.

In his last fight, Hermansson was unable to land any of his six takedown attempts, but had no problem picking Curtis apart from the outside. Hermansson finished ahead in striking 100-43 and had Curtis visibly frustrated as he refused to engage in a firefight.

Now 23-7 as a pro, Hermansson has 11 wins by KO, six by submission, and six decisions. Ten of those early wins occurred in the first round, one ended in round two, five were stopped in round three, and one came in round four. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted two more times, and has three decision losses in his career. The only fighters to knock him out are Jared Cannonier and Thiago Santos, who have both spent time up at 205 lb and are known for their power. His submission losses occurred earlier in his career, in 2013 and 2016.

Whether it’s through his submission game or via ground and pound, Hermansson generally finishes his opponents on the mat and is less of a threat on the feet. The only two wins he has in the UFC without landing a takedown were his recent decision victory over Curtis and his submission win over Kelvin Gastelum in 2020. Overall, he’s 2-3 in UFC fights where he’s failed to land at least one takedown, but 8-2 when he does land one or more.

Roman Dolidze

7th UFC Fight (5-1)

Fresh off his second straight R1 KO win, Dolidze knocked out Phil Hawes at the end of October and will now be jumping right back inside the Octagon on short notice. Prior to that finish, Dolidze became the first fighter to ever finish Kyle Daukaus and it only took 73 seconds. That finish came just over a year after Dolidze won a boring decision grappling-heavy over Laureano Staropoli. Dolidze had looked significantly worse after moving down from 205 lb to 185 lb for his two previous fights leading up to his recent finish. He made his UFC debut at 205 lb in July 2020 and landed a first round knockout against a terrible Khadis Ibragimov. Then he won a grappling-heavy split decision over John Allan, before curiously choosing to move down to 185 lb for the first time in his career despite owning a perfect 8-0 pro record. It couldn’t have helped that he took his next fight on short notice, but he looked dreadful in his first match at 185 lb and he was lucky to just lose a decision to Trevin Giles, who has since moved down to 170 lb, as Giles was close to finishing Dolidze. He then hung on to Laureano Staropoli, who was moving up from 170 lb, for three rounds to notch his first win at 185 lb.

In his last fight, Dolidze got taken down in the opening two minutes by Phil Hawes. Dolidze responded by throwing numerous heavy elbows off his back, which forced Hawes to retreat, at which point Dolidze looked for an armbar and then transitioned to a leg lock. In a bizarre scene, Dolidze mercifully released the leg lock after twisting on Hawes leg and apparently hearing something pop. Hawes was clearly severely compromised at that point and Dolidze looked like he expected the fight to be stopped, but the referee allowed it to continue and said to fight on. Hawes was basically a dead man walking at that point as he couldn’t push off on that leg and Dolidze patiently looked for a kill shot before knocking Hawes out cold. The fight ended with Dolidze ahead in significant strikes 18-11 and in total strikes 29-15, while Hawes landed the only takedown attempted in the fight.

Now 11-1 as a pro, Dolidze has six wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. His only career loss came in a 2021 decision in his first fight down at 185 lb, and he’s never been finished. All six of Dolidze’s UFC fights have ended in either first round knockout wins or decisions.

Overall, Dolidze is a powerful striker with a grappling background who can finish fights both on the feet and the mat. He loves looking for heel hooks, but he hasn’t landed one since 2017 in his second pro fight. After looking bad in his first two fights at 185 lb, he appeared to regain some of his past explosiveness in his last two matches. He still only averages 2.60 SSL/min and 1.54 SSA/min and has just a 33% takedown defense. All four of his opponents that have tried to take him down have been successful, and he’s been taken down six times on nine attempts. On the other side of things, he’s landed 9 takedowns of his own on 17 attempts (52.9% accuracy).

Fight Prediction:

Dolidze will have a 1” height advantage, but Hermansson will have a 1” reach advantage.

The only times we’ve seen Hermansson get knocked out have been when he faced fighters that have also competed at 205 lb, just like Dolidze has. Nevertheless, if Hermansson fights smart as he did in his last fight, he should be able to outland his way to a decision win if he can avoid the big shots of Dolidze coming back his way. Dolidze’s best chance to win will be to land another bomb in the opening minutes of the fight and after taking the match on short notice we could see him slow down as the fight progresses. While Dolidze is definitely live to get another first round win, give us Hermansson by decision here.

Our favorite bet here is “Hermansson DEC” at +140.

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DFS Implications:

Hermansson scored just 70 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, which is lower than we’re accustomed to seeing out of him. He had previously averaged 107 DraftKings points in his first nine UFC victories, with six of those wins coming early. He relies heavily on landing takedowns to both win fights and score well. Working against him, he’s now going against a grappler who has dangerous leg locks as we saw in Dolidze’s last fight. So it will be interesting to see if Hermansson looks to get this fight to the ground or if he’s content with keeping it standing. There’s no way he returns value in a decision unless he looks to grapple and Dolidze has never been finished in his career. That has us a little lower on Hermansson in this spot, but the fact that Dolidze took this fight on short notice is somewhat encouraging for Hermansson’s upside. If Hermansson can take Dolidze down and beat him up with ground and pound, he has the potential to find a finish or score well in a decision. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Dolidze has shown a solid floor and scoring ceiling, as he’s averaged 102 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins and still scored 86 and 92 points in his two decision victories. He’s coming off back to back first round knockouts and all six of his UFC fights have either gone the distance or ended in first round knockouts. Just keep in mind, this will be the toughest test of Dolidze’s career and he took this fight on short notice. So we should probably temper expectations to some extent, but his upside is undeniable. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Sergei Pavlovich

6th UFC Fight (4-1)

Pavlovich has knocked out four straight opponents in the first round after suffering a first round KO loss of his own in his 2018 UFC debut against Alistair Overeem. His last six fights have all ended in first round knockouts going back to before he joined the UFC, and the last time he made it to round two was in 2017. Pavlovich bounced back from the loss to Overeem by knocking out low-level Heavyweights Marcelo Golm and Maurice Greene in 2019, both of whom have since been cut by the UFC. Following the win over Greene, Pavlovich underwent knee surgery and didn’t fight in 2020 or 2021, before finally returning in 2022 to face a struggling 40-year-old Shamil Abdurakhimov. After three straight easy matchups, Pavlovich then faced a tougher test in his last fight when he took on Derrick Lewis, but the results were the same.

In his last fight, Pavlovich was able to back Lewis up early in the fight before landing a big combination of punches that spilled Lewis to the mat in the opening minute. As soon as Lewis went down the fight was stopped, despite Lewis trying to return to his feet immediately. It appeared to be a quick stoppage, although the way Lewis went down didn’t look good and he arguably would have just continued to take damage and lose the fight anyways. The fight lasted just 55 seconds and finished with Pavlovich ahead 15-4 in striking.

Now 16-1 as a pro, Pavlovich has 13 first round knockout wins and three decision victories. His only career loss came in his 2018 UFC debut against Alistair Overeem, who was able to take Pavlovich down and pound him out on the mat late in the first round.

Overall, Pavlovich is a traditional Heavyweight boxer and his most dangerous weapon is his right hand. He did wrestle growing up and then transitioned to combat sambo, but he hasn’t attempted a takedown in his last four fights, after going 0 for 2 in his debut. He also looked pretty helpless off his back against Overeem. We haven’t seen Pavlovich face any adversity since his UFC debut, as he’s been able to make short work of his last four opponents.

Tai Tuivasa

13th UFC Fight (8-4)

Looking to bounce back from a R3 KO loss to Ciryl Gane, Tuivasa had his five fight winning streak snapped by the fleet-footed Frenchmen. That was the longest fight Tuivasa has been in since 2019 and his last seven matches have all ended early, with the previous six finishing in the first two rounds. However, his last three have all made it to the second round. Just before losing to Gane, Tuivasa knocked out Derrick Lewis in the second round, after defeating a series of struggling opponents in Stefan Struve, Harry Hunsucker, Greg Hardy, and Augusto Sakai.

In his last fight, we saw a slower paced start as the two fighters got a feel for each other, but Tuivasa dropped Gane midway through the second round with a big right hand and that’s when things really got going Gane was able to recover and return to space on the feet and then began to mount offense of his own. Gane did a great job of landing heavy body shots that really appeared to be compromising Tuivasa. Then late in round three Gane finished Tuivasa with a combination of punches. The fight ended with Gane ahead in striking 110-29, with both fighters landing a knockdown.

Now 14-4 as a pro, Tuivasa has one decision win and 13 wins by KO (11 in R1 & two in the first half of R2). He’s been knocked out twice, has one submission loss, and one by decision. Two of his early losses ended in round two, with the other ending in round three. He’s just 1-4 in his career in fights that have made it past the seven minute mark.

Overall, Tuivasa is a one-dimensional striker with no ground game. He throws heavy leg kicks and has no problem taking part in a brawl. He averages 4.12 SSL/min and 4.24 SSA/min and has never landed a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts. Tuivasa is notably the only fighter to ever knock Ciryl Gane down, who after their fight said Tuivasa is the hardest hitter he’s ever faced. And keep in mind Gane was coming off a loss to Francis Ngannou. The only other time Tuivasa has been knocked out in his career it began a three fight skid, so it will be interesting to see how he responds here.

Fight Prediction:

Pavlovich will have a 1” height advantage and 9” reach advantage.

We expect Tuivasa to find success attacking the lead leg of Pavlovich early on in this fight and while Pavlovich has a massive upper body, it looks like he’s skipped a leg day or two. However, the one concern we have with that approach is that Pavlovich will have a massive reach advantage and Tuivasa will need to be careful not to get clipped throwing a leg kick without setting it up first. Both guys are dangerous finishers, but Pavlovich has never finished an opponent beyond the first round and Tuivasa has never landed a finish beyond the seven minute mark. So if the fight lasts longer than a round and a half, it will be interesting to see if both guys begin to slow down. While Pavlovich is physically impressive, we haven’t seen him fight through any adversity yet in the UFC or have to go beyond the first round. That leaves a lot of uncertainty on his side of things and we’re inclined to take the underdog here in Tuivasa and we’ll say he knocks Pavlovich out early in round two after compromising his base with leg kicks. Just keep in mind, both guys are capable of finishing the other with a single punch, making this a highly volatile spot.

Our favorite bet here is “Tai Tuivasa R1 or R2 KO” at +290.

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DFS Implications:

Pavlovich has averaged 114 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, scoring 107 or more in four straight fights. All 13 of his career finishes ended in first round knockouts, as did his one career loss. He’s never landed a takedown in the UFC and looks like a R1 KO or bust play, but since he’s never been past the first round in the UFC it’s tougher to even know what he would look like in the later rounds. While Tuivasa has been knocked out twice in his career, both of those occurred in the later rounds and he’s never been finished in round one. That gives us some reason to think he can survive the early attacks of Pavlovich, but both of these guys throw with a ton of power. Pavlovich was 39% owned on DraftKings the last time he fought and 41% owned just before that. He once again projects to be very popular, making it tougher to get excited about playing him in tournaments. However, his upside is undeniable making him a risky fade. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 38% chance it comes in round one.

Tuivasa is similar to Pavlovich in a lot of ways, as he relies on knocking opponents out early to win fights and has averaged 104 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins. He only scored 65 points in his lone decision win, but hasn’t required the judges in his last seven fights. Unlike Pavlovich, Tuivasa’s last three fights all made it past the first round, with Tuivasa landing knockouts in the opening minutes of the second round in two of those. Tuivasa has shown the ability to get rocked and respond with knockout blows of his own, and he’s faced a lot more adversity than Pavlovich in the UFC. That’s encouraging for his chances of surviving the early attacks of Pavlovich and then landing a finish, but this is definitely a highly volatile fight that could go either way. Both guys will be looking to nuke the other with kill shots and it would be surprising to see any takedowns in the match. At Tuivasa’s cheap price tag, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning tournament lineups if he lands a finish, but a decision win likely wouldn’t be enough for him to be useful. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Matheus Nicolau

8th UFC Fight (6-1)

Coming off a slow paced snoozer against David Dvorak, Nicolau continues to underwhelm when it comes to his output. He’s fought to four straight decisions and hasn’t finished anybody since 2015 in his first stint with the UFC. We’re apparently lower on him than most people, he just doesn't do much to get us excited. He originally made his UFC debut in 2015 and won his first fight with a third round submission. He then won a pair of decisions before getting knocked out by Dustin Ortiz in 2018 and was released following the loss. He landed two wins outside of the organization before being brought back on in 2021. Since his return, he’s squeaked out three straight close decisions against Manel Kape, Tim Elliott, and David Dvorak. While those wins all look great on paper, the performances weren’t overly impressive and he just barely won each of those fights. To his credit, Nicolau has won 11 of his last 12 fights, so despite consistently being involved in close fights, he knows how to do enough to get his hand raised.

In his last fight, we saw a painfully slow start with Nicolau circling away from contact for the first half of the fight before landing a knockdown late in the second round. The first round ended with Dvorak ahead in significant strikes 12-6 and then he also led in round two 19-17. No takedowns were attempted until round three, when both fighters failed to land two attempts. The only big moment in the fight was the knockdown, which seemed to be what won Nicolau the fight. Dvorak finished ahead in significant strikes 39-36 and in total strikes 60-46. He also led in control time 1:25-0:48.

Now 18-2-1 as a pro, Nicolau has four wins by KO, five by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out in the first round in both of his career losses (2012 & 2018), but he hasn’t knocked anybody out himself since 2014. His last five UFC wins have all gone the distance, with two of those being split. Nicolau has fought at both 125 lb and 135 lb in his career. He made his UFC debut at 135 lb where he landed his only UFC finish, before dropping down to 125 lb after that. He did move back up to 135 lb for his two fights outside of the UFC in 2019, but dropped back down to 125 lb when he returned and that’s where he’s stayed.

Overall, Nicolau is a BJJ black belt and a well rounded fighter, but his slow striking pace leaves something to be desired. He only averages 3.64 SSL/min and 3.09 SSA/min and has only landed one takedown in his last two fights. He’s shown that he’s content with circling away from contact and counter punching his way to close decision wins, but he’s a very capable grappler when he decides he wants to be.

Matt Schnell

12th UFC Fight (6-4, NC)

Fresh off a crazy comeback win over Sumudaerji, Schnell landed his first finish since 2019 with a second round submission win. Prior to that he got submitted himself by Brandon Royval in the first round. He lost a decision to Rogerio Bontorin looking back one fight further, although that result was overturned to a No Contest because Bontorin tested positive for a banned diuretic. Not counting that No Contest, Schnell’s last five losses have all ended early.

In his last fight, Schnell was the one pushing forward early on, which hasn’t always been the case in his fights. Schnell landed a takedown 90 seconds into the fight and was able to take Sumudaerji’s back, but Sumudaerji was able to reverse the position and end up on top. Schnell was able to look for submissions off his back and used that to reverse the position once again and closed out the round in top position. Round two is when things really got crazy, with Sumudaerji hurting Schnell badly on the feet, dropping him 90 seconds into the round. Schnell was quickly able to return to his feet, but Sumudaerji continued to inflict damage and had Schnell badly hurt. However, Schnell was able to survive and land a takedown. He mounted Sumudaerji on the mat and began landing heavy ground and pound, but somehow a compromised Sumudaerji was able to reverse the position. Schnell then locked up a triangle off his back and choked Sumudaerji unconscious to finish the fight in the second round. The match ended with Sumudaerji ahead 58-47 in significant strikes, while Schnell led 79-67 in total strikes and landed two of his three takedown attempts. Schnell had one reversal, while Sumudaerji had two in the wild back and forth affair.

Now 16-6 as a pro, Schnell has two wins by KO, nine by submission, four decisions, and one DQ win. He’s been knocked out three times (all in the first round) and submitted twice. He also has one decision defeat. Schnell has fought at both 125 lb and 135 lb in the UFC and has often struggled making the 125 lb limit, but that’s also where he’s found more success.

Overall, Schnell is a bipolar fighter who either comes into fights like a rabid dog or a shy cat depending on the mood he’s in. When he fights with emotion he puts on exciting performances that generally end early. When he fights smarter, he puts on boring snoozers, but more often than not gets his hand raised in close decisions, as he’s gone 3-1 with the judges in the UFC with two of those being split, and that loss was later overturned to a No Contest. While it’s tough to know what his approach will be in any given fight, you can generally expect either a fast paced banger that ends in the opening two rounds or a slow-paced snoozer that ends in a close decision. Schnell is a black belt in karate and a BJJ purple belt. While he has nine submission wins on his record, they’re all defensive submissions. He has three wins by armbar, two by guillotine, and four triangle chokes. He’s only landed four takedowns on nine attempts in his 11 UFC fights.

Fight Prediction:

Schnell will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.

You never know what version of Matt Schnell you’re going to get, which makes it tough to predict how fights will play out. However, we’ve seen the more aggressive version of him show up to his last two fights, after the passive version showed up for the two fights before that. If Schnell pushes forward to instigate a brawl this could be a fun fight, but Nicolau is pretty passive himself, content with counter punching, so there is also clear bust potential here. Nicolau is much more defensively sound than Schnell, so it’s unlikely that Schnell finds a finish, but he was able to pull off a crazy comeback win in his last fight. Nevertheless, we like Nicolau to win this fight, most likely in a decision, but with the potential to find either a knockout or a submission.

Our favorite bet here is “Nicolau SUB or DEC” at -160.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

While Nicolau had two big DraftKings scores earlier in his career, he totalled just 58, 77, and 71 points in his recent three decision victories and also scored just 50 points in a 2016 decision. In his one decision to score well back in 2017, he amazingly landed three knockdowns in the first round against Louis Smolka to go along with two takedowns and a decent number of strikes and control time to score 122 DraftKings points and 139 points on FanDuel. He similarly landed two knockdowns and three takedowns in his 2015 UFC debut to score 117 DraftKings points and 135 FanDuel points in a third round submission victory. However, it’s been five years since he put up a usable DFS score and he appears to have settled into fighting to slower paced decisions with occasional submission attempts mixed in. At his expensive price tag it’s hard to see him returning value without a finish, but working in his favor, Schnell has been finished in five of his six official losses (he had another decision loss overturned to a No Contest). Nicolau projects to be low owned due to his recent scoring struggles, which combined with the favorable matchup makes him somewhat interesting. It’s just hard to get excited about a guy that hasn’t landed a finish in a UFC fight since 2015 and appears content with grinding out close decisions. The odds imply he has a 76% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Schnell is coming off a career best performance where he notched 115 DraftKings points in a crazy second round submission win. Just keep in mind, that came against a one-dimensional striker in Sumudaerji and now he’ll face a BJJ black belt. Schnell has averaged just 57 DraftKings points in his three UFC decision wins, and even at his cheap price tag he likely needs a finish to be useful. Nicolau hasn’t been finished since 2018, but both of his career losses did end in first round knockouts. It will be interesting to see how much the field chases Schnell’s recent slate-breaking score, but he likely only sees a slight bump up in ownership. This is not a spot we’re looking to chase Schnell’s recent results in, but crazier things have happened then him landing another finish. The odds imply he has a 24% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Rafael Dos Anjos

33rd UFC Fight (20-12)

Looking to bounce back from a R5 KO loss to Rafael Fiziev, the 38-year-old Dos Anjos had dropped down to 155 lb for his last three fights to try and make one final title push, but now that those plans have been derailed he’s moving back up to 170 lb. That recent KO defeat is the only time Dos Anjos has been finished in his last 12 fights dating back to 2016. It’s rare to see Dos Anjos involved in a three-round match and eight of his last nine fights have been scheduled to go five rounds, with the one exception being a 2020 three-round decision loss to Michael Chiesa in Dos Anjos’ last 170 lb match. Seven of Dos Anjos’ last nine fights have gone the distance, including six five-round decisions. The last time Dos Anjos finished anybody was in 2019, when he submitted Kevin Lee in the fourth round, which is the earliest finish we’ve seen in one of his fights since 2017. Dos Anjos is just 3-5 in his last eight fights, but those losses have come against almost exclusively elite competition. With that said, his only two wins since 2019 came against opponents who stepped into five-round fights on less than a week’s notice.

In his last fight, Dos Anjos really struggled with getting Rafael Fiziev to the mat, as he landed just 2 of his 16 attempts. Fiziev notably entered that matchup with an elite 95% takedown defense, so everyone has struggled to get him to the mat in fairness to Dos Anjos. We saw a slower paced fight with Fiziev defending takedowns for most of the match, but Fiziev finished ahead in significant strikes 64-54 and in total strikes 92-90 before forcing what looked like a quick stoppage in the opening seconds of round five.

Now 31-14 as a pro, Dos Anjos has five wins by KO, 10 by submission, and 16 decisions. While he’s never been submitted, he’s been knocked out four times and has 10 decision losses. All four of his early losses occurred at 155 lb and he’s never been finished at 170 lb. Dos Anjos started his UFC career in 2008 at 155 lb, but moved up to 170 lb in 2017 following a five-round decision loss to Tony Ferguson. After winning his first three fights up at 170 lb, he went just 1-4 in his next five as he faced a gauntlet of elite opponents in Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, Kevin Lee, Leon Edwards, and Michael Chiesa. After going 4-4 at 170 lb, he moved back down to 155 lb in 2020 for one final title run, where he went 2-1. He’s gone 16-8 at 155 lb in the UFC, although his second most recent fight was technically at a 160 lb Catchweight due to the short notice nature.

Overall, Dos Anjos is a 4th degree BJJ black belt who relies on his grappling to win fights on the mat. He’s won his last three fights where he landed a takedown and lost his last three where he didn’t. In UFC fights that have lasted more than one round, he’s just 1-7 when he’s failed to land a takedown, with that lone win coming all the way back in 2013. He landed 11 takedowns on 37 attempts in his last two fights, with over 27 and a half minutes of combined control time. While Dos Anjos landed a pair of submission wins in his time up at 170 lb, his last 14 fights at 155 lb have all ended in either knockouts (3-1) or decisions (8-2). All of those knockouts occurred in the first two rounds, with three ending in round one. However, the most recent of those knockouts was still all the way back in 2015 against Donald Cerrone. The last time he submitted a 155 lb opponent was all the way back in 2012. While he’s a capable striker, we expect him to once again rely heavily on his grappling in this next match.

Bryan Barberena

16th UFC Fight (9-6)

Coming off his first early win since 2018, Barberena has won three in a row, with two close decisions followed by a second round TKO win over a 40-year-old Robbie Lawler in his last match. Just before drafting Lawler, Barberena narrowly defeated a 41-year-old Matt Brown in a split-decision, after winning another close decision against a short notice replacement making his UFC debut in Darian Weeks. Barberena’s last loss ended in a majority decision against Jason Witt, who’s since retired and was knocked out in all of his other three most recent fights. Barberena fought to four straight decisions prior to his recent R2 TKO win and six of his last seven fights have seen the third round.

In his last fight, following a brief feeling out process we saw Barberena and Lawler just stand in front of each other and throw non stop punches at an unsustainable pace. The 40-year-old Lawler ran out of gas first as he faded in the second round and Barberena was able to force a standing TKO stoppage late in the round as Lawler was no longer defending himself. The fight ended with Barberena ahead in significant strikes 147-81 and in total strikes 148-81. No takedowns were attempted in the fight, nor did we ever even see the two clinch up. Barberena averaged an insane 15.03 SSL/min in the match, while Lawler averaged 8.28 SSL/min.

Now 18-8 as a pro, Barberena has 11 wins by KO, two by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has five decision losses. While he’s won three of the last four decisions he’s been to, he’s consistently involved in close scorecards and two of his last three decisions have been split/majority rulings. Thirteen of his 15 UFC fights have seen the second round, with 11 making it to round three and eight going the distance. Barberena’s first three UFC knockouts came against opponents in their final professional fight, and it remains to be seen if Robbie Lawler will continue to fight. Barberena fought all the way up at 185 lb very early in his professional career, before dropping all the way down to 155 lb for his first two UFC fights. He then moved back up to 170 lb for his third UFC fight, where he’s stayed since.

Overall, Barberena is a brawer who hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 12 fights. He’s put up big striking totals at times, but has been inconsistent for most of his career when it comes to stringing together wins. His current three fight winning streak is the only time he’s won three fights in a row in his 15 fight UFC career. He averages a healthy 6.11 SSL/min and 5.01 SSA/min and generally makes for high paced fights. However, Barberena has really struggled with being taken down, and in his 15 UFC fights he has been taken down 41 times on 93 opponent attempts (55.9% defense). While no takedowns were attempted in his last fight, Barberena was taken down four or more times in each of his previous four matches. And keep in mind, he wasn’t fighting elite grapplers there, as he squared off against Anthony Ivy (Cut), Jason Witt (Retired), Darian Weeks (Cut), and Matt Brown (Retired) in those fights. Now he’ll face a world champion grappler and 4th degree BJJ black belt in Rafael Dos Anjos.

Fight Prediction:

Barberena will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also five years younger than the 38-year-old Dos Anjos.

This is a massive mismatch when it comes to grappling, and Dos Anjos should be able to dominate this fight on the ground should he choose to. Barberena is also more of a volume striker than a power puncher, so Dos Anjos won’t really be at too much risk of getting knocked out again even if the fight does remain standing more than expected. With that said, Barberena, a BJJ blue belt, has been taken down 22 times in his last five fights and that’s clearly the easiest path to victory for Dos Anjos, who’s a 4th degree black belt. Dos Anjos moving back up to 170 lb at 38 years old after fighting his last three matches at 155 lb does add a little bit of uncertainty to this matchup, but this is a major step down in competition for Dos Anjos and we expect him to get the job done. The bigger question is whether or not Dos Anjos is able to find a finish, as he has seemed largely content with grinding out decisions over the last five years. However, he’s also been facing the toughest competition on the planet and this will be an easier spot for him to find a finish. With that said, Barberena has only been submitted once in his career, which was back in 2010, and Dos Anjos hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2015. So it’s more likely that Dos Anjos wins a decision here, but we also wouldn’t be shocked if he was able to lock up a submission.

Our favorite bet here is “Dos Anjos SUB” at +320.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Dos Anjos rarely takes part in three-round fights, with eight of his last nine matches scheduled to go five rounds. That means his DFS scoring is inflated when you look at his stat sheet, which will inevitably drive up his ownership. The tricky thing about that is this is a great matchup for him to score well, as he takes on a one-dimensional striker who struggles with being taken down. Barberena also absorbs the 4th most significant strikes on the slate at 5.01/min. So while Dos Anjos has only averaged 83 DraftKings points in his eight UFC three-round decision wins and failed to top 98 points in any of those, this is still a good spot for him to score well. Dos Anjos is now 38 years old, coming off a KO loss, and moving back up to 170 lb after fighting at 155 lb for his last three matches. So he does have a few red flags surrounding him, however, he also gets a step down in competition here. As the most expensive fighter on the slate there are lots of ways for him to get priced out of tournament winning lineups, but his combination of grappling and striking keep him in play even in a decision win. The odds imply he has an 81% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Barberena has squeaked by recently against a series of washed up and low-level talents and will not face a massive step up in competition. He’s the biggest underdog on this card, and his chances of winning are slim. He’ll need to convince Dos Anjos to take part in a striking battle, as we don’t see Barberena’s suspect takedown defense holding up well if/when Dos Anjos looks to grapple. Barberena doesn't really have one punch knockout power, and more wears on his opponents as fights go on, which will make it tougher for him to land a hail mary knockout. It’s certainly not impossible that Dos Anjos comes in with an idiotic gameplan and keeps the fight standing the whole time, but it is very unlikely. Barberena does land a ton of striking volume (6.11 SSL/min), so if he somehow pulls off the upset it’s harder to see him getting left out of winning lineups, but it’s tough to see him winning here. He’s coming off a career best 129 point DraftKings performance, which could bump his ownership up a little, which makes it even tougher to have much interest in playing Barberena here. The odds imply he has a 19% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Kevin Holland

17th UFC Fight (10-5, NC)

Fresh off a first round submission loss to Khamzat Chimaev, Holland casually announced his retirement from MMA following the defeat, although few actually took him seriously. His ride into the sunset was brief, as he then accepted this matchup just a few weeks after his recent loss. He had originally been scheduled to face Daniel Rodriguez there in a three round match, but after Chimaev missed weight 7.5 lb, the main card was shuffled around at the last minute and Holland took a major pay raise to keep the card intact and take on Chimaev in a five-round match instead. Prior to that loss, Holland landed a pair of second round finishes, after dropping down to 170 lb for the first time in the UFC earlier this year. The move in weight was prompted by three straight defeats on the mat in 2021, although the last of those was overturned to a No Contest. Regardless of the official outcome, it had become clear that Holland didn’t stand much of a chance against high-level grapplers at 185 lb.

In his last fight, Holland went for a glove touch to start the match, but Chimaev used that as an opportunity to shoot for an immediate takedown. After a high-paced scramble on the mat, Chimaev was able to look up a D'arce choke and eventually force a tap. Neither fighter landed a single significant strike in the 133 second match, while Chimaev officially landed two takedowns on five attempts with just under two minutes of control time.

Now 23-8 as a pro, Holland has 13 wins by KO, six by submission, and four decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted three times and has five decision defeats. He would have four submission losses on his record, but a 2021 R1 submission loss to Kyle Daukaus was ruled a No Contest after an accidental clash of heads began the finishing sequence. Holland’s last four wins all ended in the first two rounds, while two of his last three losses came in five-round decisions.

Holland started at 170 lb when he turned pro in 2014, but would take fights anywhere from 170 lb to 195 lb. He began settling in at 185 lb in 2016, although did drop back down to 170 lb for a decision loss in 2017. However, after starting 8-4 with a No Contest in the UFC at 185 lb, Holland dropped back down 170 lb in early 2022, and proceeded to land a pair of second round finishes at the lighter weight class, leading up to his recent submission defeat.

This will be the 7th five-round fight of Holland’s career and fourth in the UFC. In his three fights scheduled to go five-rounds prior to joining the UFC, Holland landed a first round submission and a pair of third round knockouts, including a 2017 R3 KO against Geoff Neal, who in fairness was fighting up a weight class. However, Holland has lost all three of his UFC five-round fights, with a pair of smothering decision defeats against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori, followed by the first round submission loss to Chimaev most recently. All three of those losses notably came against high-level grapplers.

Overall, Holland is a second degree black belt in Kung Fu and primarily a striker but is technically also a BJJ black belt and does have some submission abilities. He is rangy, powerful and dangerous on the feet, in addition to being very durable, but his wrestling is where he really struggles and that’s been exposed at multiple points over the last couple of years. All of Holland’s UFC losses have come on the mat and we’ve yet to see him be bested in a striking battle. While he doesn’t look to take fights to the mat very often, Holland has landed 10 takedowns on 20 attempts (50% accuracy) in his 16 UFC matches. However, he hasn’t landed a takedown in his last five fights on just one attempt. Now he’ll face a pure striker in Stephen Thompson, so Holland shouldn’t have to worry about getting controlled on the mat.

Stephen Thompson

19th UFC Fight (11-6-1)

Two months shy of his 40th birthday and a year removed from his last fight, Thompson is looking to bounce back from a pair of smothering three-round decision losses. His last four fights and 9 of his last 10 have gone the distance, with the one exception over that stretch being a 2019 R2 KO loss to Anthony Pettis, which is the only time Thompson has been finished in his career. The last time Thompson finished an opponent was in a 2016 R1 TKO over Johny Hendricks.

In his last fight, Thompson was able to defend an early takedown attempt from Belal Muhammad, but ultimately got smothered on the mat for the better part of three rounds, as Muhammad landed seven of his nine takedown attempts and finished with nearly 12 minutes in control time. Muhammad finished ahead in significant strikes 58-19 and in total strikes 171-51.

Now 16-6-1 as a pro, Thompson has seven wins by KO, one by submission, and eight decision victories. His last KO win was in 2016, while his lone submission victory occurred in 2010 in his third pro fight. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2019 KO, with his other five losses all going the distance. Thompson is just 2-4 in his last six fights and only 3-5-1 in his last nine.

This will be the 9th five-round fight of Thompson’s career. He landed a pair of first round knockouts in 2015 and 2016 his first two five-round fights in the UFC, and followed that up with a decision victory. He then fought Tyron Woodley to a five-round draw, before losing a close decision to Woodley when they ran it back in another five-round match. He followed that up with another decision loss, before getting knocked out in the second round by Anthony Pettis. After losing three straight five-round fights, Thompson finally righted the ship with a five-round decision win over Geoff Neal in December 2020, which is both the last time Thompson won a fight and the last time he headlined. So overall, he’s just 1-3-1 in his last five fights that were scheduled to go five rounds, after winning the first three of his career.

Overall, Thompson is a high-level karate-style striker who’s very elusive and light on his feet. He averages 3.90 SSL/min and 2.81 SSA/min and is very elusive as he glides around the Octagon. His unique, word-class karate style is incredibly tough to prepare for, and we often see opponents bring in Raymond Daniels to try and mimic Thompson’s approach during training. Thompson offers almost nothing when it comes to grappling, and after landing five takedowns on nine attempts in his first seven UFC fights, Thompson has failed to land a takedown in his last 11 matches on just three attempts. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down 17 times on 47 opponent attempts (63.8% defense) in his 18 UFC fights. The majority of those takedowns occurred in his last two matches, where he was taken down a combined 10 times on 15 attempts. He had only been taken down twice in his previous 14 fights, and what had been widely regarded as one of the best takedown defenses in the game has begun to fail him lately. Thompson has still never won a UFC fight where he was taken down even once (0-4-1), but only five of his 18 UFC opponents have actually been able to get him to the mat. Before turning pro in MMA, Thompson was impressively 57-0 as a kickboxer with 40 KO’s.

Fight Prediction:

Holland will have a 3” height advantage and 6” reach advantage. He’s also nine years younger than the 39-year-old Thompson.

This sets up as a fun striking battle, although Holland will actually also have a rare grappling advantage, should he choose to use it. He’ll most likely only look for a takedown if things aren’t going his way on the feet, but there’s always a slight chance he’ll look to surprise Thompson with an early takedown attempt after seeing how much Thompson struggled on the mat in his last two matches. Holland is the more powerful striker and also looks more durable, while Thompson will have the experience advantage and is more elusive with his footwork. The larger Octagon in this matchup should benefit Thompson, who prefers to operate in space where he has his full arsenal of kicks available to him. We have some red flags on both sides, as Thompson is approaching his 40th birthday, hasn’t fought in a year, and hasn’t won a fight in two years. The one concern with Holland is that he briefly “retired” leading up to this matchup and doesn’t appear fully focussed on fighting at the moment. Nevertheless, we’d be surprised to see Thompson become the first fighter to ever knock Holland out, and there’s almost no chance Thompson lands a submission. Therefore the only way we see him winning this fight is by outpointing his way to victory in a decision. While Thompson has only been finished once in his career, Holland has a decent shot at landing a finish here if he can track Thompson down and land some clean shots, but we also won’t be surprised to see it end in a close decision. Thompson’s decision line is far too wide relative to his moneyline, but we still like Holland to win this one, most likely with a finish in the second or third round.

Our favorite bet here is Holland’s ML at -136.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Holland generally relies on his striking to win fights and he failed to land his only takedown attempt in his last five matches. He also doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, only averaging 3.85 SSL/min in his career, and hasn’t topped 79 significant strikes landed in any of his last 14 fights. That leaves him reliant on well timed finishes to score well in DFS, and to his credit, his last four wins all occurred in the opening two rounds. Working against him, Thompson has only been finished once in his career and averages just 2.81 SSA/min. Amazingly, no one has ever landed more than 85 significant strikes on Thompson, despite the fact that nine of his last 10 matches have gone the distance, with five of those going 25 minutes. Thompson absorbed 61 or fewer significant strikes in four of those five five-round fights. That makes it tougher for Holland to score well with a mid-to-late round finish or in a decision, unless he surprises everybody and comes in with a more grappling-heavy gameplan. Supporting that notion, in Thompson’s last two five-round decision losses, his opponents put up pathetic DK/FD scores of 56/55 and 73/70. The odds imply Holland has a 57% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Thompson is even more of a one-dimensional striker than Holland, as he hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 11 fights. However, unlike Holland, Thompson rarely finishes anybody, with zero early wins in his last 10 fights dating back to 2016. While Thompson only averages 3.90 SSL/min in his career, he set career best striking totals in each of his last two wins, at least showing the potential to score decently even without a finish. With that said, Holland only averages 2.38 SSA/min and no one has ever landed more than 69 significant strikes against him. Holland has also never been knocked out in his career, so overall this isn’t a great matchup for Thompson. However, Thompson has to be relieved to be facing a fellow striker after taking on a pair of grapplers in his last two fights and getting smothered on the mat for the majority of those matches. With 9 of his last 10 fights going the distance, Thompson’s most realistic path to victory will be outpointing his way to a decision. His two prior five-round decision wins were good for 102 and 80 DraftKings points, showing a decently wide range of outcomes depending on how many strikes he can land. His cheaper price tag makes it more likely for him to crack winning tournament lineups with a victory, but it’s far from a sure thing and Holland has yet to lose a pure striking battle in the UFC. Thompson’s style of fighting will generally score better on FanDuel than DraftKings, but he’s a decent play on both sites if you think he can pull off the victory here. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

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