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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Joselyne Edwards
4th UFC Fight (1-2)After getting grappled to death in her last two fights, the UFC has now paired Edwards up against another wrestler in potentially a must win spot as she sits on a 1-2 UFC record. It wouldn’t be entirely shocking if she got one more shot even with a loss after she took her first two fights on short notice, but there’s still a much better chance she gets cut with another loss here—especially if she just gets controlled for the entire fight again. Edwards made her short notice UFC debut against Wu Yanan in January 2021 and won a unanimous decision, while nearly locking up an armbar in the first round. She then faced a much tougher opponent in Karol Rosa and got taken down four times on six attempts and controlled for over 11 minutes on her way to a unanimous 30-27 decision loss. We saw basically the same thing happen in her most recent fight against Jessica-Rose Clark. Neither Clark nor Rosa had relied on their wrestling much previously and both set career highs in takedowns landed and control time.
In that last fight, Clark immediately took Edwards down in the first round on her first attempt. While Clark was able to control Edwards on the mat, she wasn’t doing anything with the position and the fight got stood up after a few minutes of inactivity. Clark immediately looked for another takedown, but Edwards was able to avoid getting controlled as she hit the mat and reversed the position. Undeterred, Clark shot again and landed another takedown late in the round. Clark was able to get the fight back to the ground 90 seconds into round two and spent the rest of the round hanging out in top position. The third round was much of the same, with Clark once again landing an early takedown and holding Edwards on the mat for the entire round as she cruised to a unanimous decision. In the end, Clark landed 5 takedowns on 11 attempts with nearly 12 minutes of control time, but trailed in significant strikes 30-18 and in total strikes 72-54. Prior to that performance, Clark had previously landed 5 total takedowns on 9 attempts in her first five UFC fights combined and then got submitted in the first round of her last fight, so she’s not somebody that has generally shown much of a ground game but was still able to easily control Edwards on the ground.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Edwards has five wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once, and has three decision losses, including a five-round split-decision loss to a terrible Sarah Alpar in a 2018 LFA Bantamweight title fight. Edwards’ submission game appears limited to looking for armbars off her back, which is how she finished her last two submissions. All eight of her early wins have occurred in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one and two in round two. Three of her five knockouts occurred in under 60 seconds, but none of those were against opponents with winning records. After eight of her first nine pro fights ended early, four of her last five have gone the distance. After fighting almost her entire career down at 135 lb, with one fight even at 125 lb, Edwards will now be moving up to 145 lb for the first time after Pascual informed the UFC a couple of weeks ago that she wouldn’t be able to make 135 lb, where this fight was originally scheduled to take place.
Overall, Edwards is basically a one-dimensional striker with a background in boxing, but she will look for armbar attempts off her back, which is basically the extent of her grappling. Her 47% takedown defense has been abysmal, as her first three opponents have grounded her 10 times on 19 attempts. While she’ll aggressively throw combinations of heavy punches on the feet, she hasn’t been given the opportunity to showcase her striking in her last two fights and now goes up against another grappler.
Ramona Pascual
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Pascual will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Josiane Nunes in her recent short notice UFC debut, which she took on just eight days’ notice. She faced a series of low-level opponents prior to joining the UFC, with her most recent win coming in an Invicta 150 lb Catchweight match against a suspect short notice replacement with just two pro fights on her record. The fight lasted just 60 seconds and not very much happened. As soon as Pascual connected with anything, her opponent looked overwhelmed and quickly dropped to the mat and the fight was stopped. Nothing Pascual threw looked to have much force behind it and despite the speed of the finish it wasn’t overly impressive. Just prior to that win, Pascual took on an opponent who was making her pro debut and fighting up a weight class at 145 lb. The fight ended up on the mat in the opening seconds after Pascual started throwing knees, which is typically her go to move. From that point on, she worked her way towards a finish after escaping a heel hook. She initially tried to finish the fight with ground and pound from a crucifix position, but ultimately got it done with a keylock submission. Pascual’s earlier wins came against an opponent who has been finished in the first round in three of her last four fights and another making her pro debut. Overall, Pascual’s yet to defeat anyone with much experience and the only other two wins of her career came against opponents who are currently 0-3 and 0-4. Only one of her six wins came against a fighter with a winning record, and that was the 2-0 short notice opponent she defeated just before joining the UFC. Her two pre-UFC losses came against opponents who entered with records of 2-0 and 2-2.
In her recent debut, Pascual got dropped in the first round but quickly recovered and landed a takedown late in the round, although she wasn’t able to get much done on the mat. Her opponent, Josiane Nunes, was able to knock her down again early in round two and looked close to getting a finish. However, Pascual was able to recover once again and land another takedown with two minutes left in the round—although she once again did absolutely nothing with the position as she just laid on top of Nunes. Round three stayed largely on the feet until Pascual was once again able to land a late takedown with 14 seconds remaining in the fight, and once again did nothing with it. Nunes finished ahead in significant strikes 98-52 and in total strikes 119-71 with two knockdowns landed. Pascual was only able to land 3 of her 10 takedown attempts with a little under four minutes of control time. Nunes easily won a unanimous decision, winning every round on all three judges’ score cards, including a 10-8 round on one score card.
Now 6-3 as a pro, Pascual has four wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and one decision. She’s also been knocked out once, submitted once, and has one decision loss. Her lone submission loss notably came by armbar, and she has a habit of putting her arms flat on the mat in top position, leaving her vulnerable to getting armbarred. That’s notable in this next matchup as Edwards’ last two submission wins have both come by armbar and she nearly landed another one in the first round of her UFC debut. Pascual has fought anywhere from 134 lb to 150 lb in the past, and said going into her 145 lb UFC debut that she planned on dropping back down to 135 lb following that fight. This fight had actually originally been booked at 135 lb, but Pascual informed the UFC a couple of weeks out that she wouldn’t be able to make 135 lb and it was moved to 145 lb.
Overall, Pascual is a low-level fighter who relies mostly on her size and wrestling but didn’t appear at all dangerous on the mat in her recent debut. She’s looked slow and very hittable on the feet and has been prone to getting knocked down. Despite being 33 years old, she only has nine pro fights on her record, and she exclusively fought a very low level of competition prior to joining the UFC. She’s from Hong Kong and has a rugby and Muay Thai background, but she’s been training out of Syndicate MMA since March 2021 when she moved to Las Vegas.
Fight Prediction:
Edwards will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. She’s also seven years younger than the 33-year-old Pascual.
This card is littered with striker versus grappler matchups, so it’s only fitting that’s how it will kick off. Both of these two are fighting to show they belong in the UFC, but so far neither has looked very impressive. Edwards has been controlled for six straight rounds on the mat, while Pascual got mauled for most of her recent UFC debut. Stylistically, this appears to set up great for Pascual who wants to get fights to the ground, which is where Edwards struggles. However, Edward’s last two opponents were much tougher UFC veterans and now she’ll face a low-level talent who has yet to show she belongs with the organization, so this is clearly a big step down in competition. With that said, Edwards is moving up to 145 lb for the first time without much time to adjust to the additional weight, which isn’t ideal when you’re facing an opponent who’s looking to take you down. Despite moving up a weight class, Edwards will still be the taller and longer fighter, but going against a heavier opponent could make it even tougher for her to get off her back if/when she does get taken down. That makes this a higher variance spot and the result hinges entirely on where the fight takes place. On the feet, Edwards should have her way with Pascual and has a good chance of landing a knockout. However, Edwards will be reliant on landing an armbar submission if she finds herself on her back, which in fairness, she is entirely capable of completing and Pascual has looked vulnerable to being armbarred. Pascual is unlikely to get a finish, and she appears reliant on taking Edwards down multiple times and controlling her for periods of time to win a grappling-heavy decision, just as Edwards’ last two opponents have done. There’s a very real chance we see that happen, but Edwards has multiple ways to win this fight, whether it be through a knockout, a submission, or outlanding her way to victory on the feet, while Pascual is far more reliant on winning this fight on the ground. For that reason, we like Edwards to win and there’s a good chance she gets a finish in the first two rounds either by KO or armbar.
Our favorite bet here is “Edwards ITD” at +300.
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DFS Implications:
Edwards has been controlled on the mat for six straight rounds in a pair of demoralizing decision losses, so it’s not surprising that people are losing faith in her ability to remain upright and are looking at playing the underdog in Pascual in this spot. Just keep in mind, both of those recent losses were against much tougher UFC veterans and now Edwards will face the lowest level opponent she’s encountered since joining the UFC. In her lone UFC decision win, Edwards scored just 77 DraftKings points and appears reliant on landing a finish to score well—something she’s yet to achieve since joining the organization. Her high price tag and past results should keep her ownership in check, as the field will gravitate towards the bigger names priced around her like Zhang Weili and Jiri Prochazka. With Edwards projecting to go overlooked and stepping into the easiest matchup of her career in a potentially must win spot to save her job, she actually sets up as a great tournament play. Eight of her 10 career wins have come early, all in the first two rounds. Just keep in mind this looks like a boom or bust spot for her, and she scored just 23 and 32 DraftKings points in her recent two decision losses. The odds imply she has a 57% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
The path to victory appears pretty clear for Pascual in this spot. She’ll need to get the fight to the ground and grind out a decision, with a very slight chance she can find a finish on the mat. Pascual is highly unlikely to outland her way to victory in a striking battle, so if she does win it means she either landed a finish or won the fight on the ground, both of which will score well in DFS, with a decision win scoring much better on DraftKings than FanDuel. While we haven’t been overly impressed by anything we’ve seen out of Pascual, Edwards has shown terrible defensive wrestling so stylistically this is a good matchup for Pascual. The odds imply Pascual has a 39% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Silvana Gomez Juarez
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Still in search of her first UFC win, Gomez Juarez succumbed to the same fate in both of her UFC fights, with each ending in a first round armbar submission loss. However, while the fights resulted in the same outcome, they couldn’t have gone much differently for as long as they lasted. Juarez’s lack of grappling was on full display in her UFC debut, as Loopy Godinez put on a dominant wrestling performance, landing five takedowns on six attempts with three and half minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just over four minutes. Juarez put up little to no resistance to getting taken down and looked helpless on the mat, exposing a clear weakness for opponents to exploit moving forward. Of course the UFC saw that and said hey, let's give her a jiu-jitsu specialist next!
In her most recent fight, Gomez Juarez started off much better, as she was able to stay off the cage and looked to land bombs on Demopoulos from space. Gomez Juarez put everything she had in a looping right hand that connected cleanly to the face of Demopoulos 70 seconds into the first round, and it looked like she was moments away from notching a first round knockout. However, as Gomez Juarez went in to finish the job with ground and pound, Demopoulos was able to throw up her guard and hang on for dear life. She slowly worked her way to an armbar attempt and Gomez Juarez was unable to do anything to stop it. She instantly tapped as soon as Demopoulos rolled her over, before her arm ever even got straightened out.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Gomez Juarez has six wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. Her four career losses have all come against UFC fighters, with one ending in a KO, two in R1 armbar submissions, and one by decision. Prior to joining the UFC, she lost a 2018 five-round decision to Ariane Lipski and suffered a 2015 post R4 TKO loss to Poliana Botelho. She also has a decision win over former UFC fighter Vanessa Melo. Both of Gomez Juarez’s submission wins came by third round armbar in back-to-back 2014 fights. Impressively, five of her six KO wins have occurred in the first round, with the other coming in the second round of her last fight before joining the UFC. Juarez has fought as high as 135 lb in the past, but has spent most of her career at 125 lb. Both of her UFC fights have been down at 115 lb, but prior to joining the organization she had only competed at 115 lb once, which ended in a 2019 decision win. So we’ve yet to see her land a finish at 115 lb.
While Juarez has two submission wins on her record, she’s really a pure kickboxer and doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of grappling. She has solid striking, but has proven she’s a liability when fights hit the mat. Despite this being just her third UFC fight, she’s already 37 years old. Her last four matches have all ended in the first two rounds, with three ending in round one, and Gomez Juarez generally relies on early knockouts to win fights.
Liang Na
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from R2 TKO by exhaustion in her UFC debut, Na’s last 11 fights have all ended in the first two rounds, and she’s lost the last four that have made it past round one. In fact, she only has one career win to come beyond the first round. Prior to losing her UFC debut, Na had won five straight fights in the first round. While this will just be her second UFC fight, she’s faced a few UFC fighters in the past. She lost in a late R1 TKO to Mariya Agapova in 2018 after previously losing her only career decision to Liliya Shakirova in 2017. Her only win to come beyond the first round was in an early R2 2016 submission of former UFC fighter Liana Jojua.
In her last fight, Na landed a straight right hand that dropped Ariane Carnelossi to her knees literally three seconds into the first round and then chaos ensued. Na landed her first takedown 15 seconds in, but after 45 seconds on the mat Carnelossi was able to escape out the backdoor as Na got a little too aggressive. The too briefly traded on the feet before Na dragged Carnelossi back to the mat. Both ladies looked for armbars, but that just resulted in Carnelossi ending up on top. As Na continued to search for submissions off her back, Carnelossi was forced to stand up and after a brief scramble Na ended up back on top. It didn’t take long for Carnelossi to reverse the position as the two continued to trade positions like they were fighting in outer space. Carnelossi finished the round landing ground and pound against an absolutely exhausted Na who had to be carried back to her corner by Song Yadong after the round ended, with the ref nearly stopping the fight. Na recovered to some small extent between rounds and landed a takedown early in round two, but Carnelossi kicked her off and began to land more ground and pound against an absolutely exhausted Na. At that point Na was too tired to defend herself and the ref quickly stepped in and stopped the fight.
Now 19-5 as a pro despite being just 25 years old, Na has seven wins by KO, 10 by submission, and two by DQ. Only one of her 19 career wins occurred beyond the first round, which was the early R2 submission victory over Liana Jojua back in Na’s 4th pro fight. Her last 15 wins have all come in the first round. Four of her five losses have also come early, two by TKO and two more by armbar submissions. Three of those four early losses occurred in round two, while the other ended with two seconds remaining in round one. Only two of her 24 pro fights have made it past the midway mark of round two. She’s fought the majority of her career at 125 lb and just moved down to 115 lb in 2020 for her last three fights, where this next one will also be. She even started her pro career at 135 lb.
Overall, Na is a relentless grappler with a 4-5 minute gas tank. She fights like she has a bomb strapped to her back that will detonate after the first round if she doesn’t get a finish and has zero regard for pacing herself. Her last five and six of her 10 submission wins have come by R1 armbar, while she also had four rear-naked choke victories earlier in her career. She’s a somewhat capable striker as well and will mix in flurries of strikes with her takedowns attempts.
Fight Prediction:
Na will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is 12 years younger than the 37-year-old Juarez
This fight sets up as the most exciting round on the card and unless Na completely changes the game plan that she’s used for her previous 24 pro fights, we’d be shocked to see this match make it past the midway mark of round two. Na competes like she’s being attacked by a swarm of killer bees and Gomez Juarez has a glass howitzer for a right arm. Both fighters are entirely capable of finishing the other at any moment, but the insurance policy for a finish is Na’s one-round gas tank. She had to be carried back to her stool following the first round in her last fight and became a sitting duck in round two. However, for Na’s nonexistent cardio to become a factor, Gomez Juarez will first need to survive 4-5 minutes of non-stop attacks, specifically armbar attempts that Gomez Juarez has looked so vulnerable to. While we’re generally not in the business of backing R1 or bust fighters, this matchup is simply too perfect to pass up on Na, especially as the underdog. We like Na’s chances to get Gomez Juarez down and submit her in the first round, most likely via armbar. Just keep in mind, Gomez Juarez is entirely capable of knocking her out, and that becomes increasingly more likely the longer this fight goes.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
Gomez Juarez was moments away from landing a first round knockout in her last fight, but instead of finishing her dazed opponent on the mat after dropping her, she succumbed to her second straight R1 armbar loss. The UFC cruelly matched her up with a third straight grappler here, and an armbar specialist no less. Gomez Juarez is a solid striker, but has looked helpless on the mat and completely unable to defend takedowns. She’ll need to either land a knockout before she gets taken down, or somehow survive on the ground long enough for Na to gas out. Both of those are possible, but Na’s ridiculous pace won’t give Gomez Juarez much time to line up an early kill shot before she’s defending a takedown. That makes it tougher to feel confident in Gomez Juarez here, but she’s still fully capable of getting a finish. Working in her favor, she projects to be lower owned than the underdog in Na in this matchup, which makes Gomez Juarez a great leverage play with tournament winning upside. The odds imply she has a 54% chance to win, a 32% chance to get a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Na is one of the most chaotic fighters in the UFC and sets an unsustainable pace every time they lock her in the cage. Of her 19 career wins, 18 have ended in round one, with the other coming early in round two. She was so exhausted following the first round of her last fight that she had to be carried back to her corner and the fight was nearly stopped. She’s generally looking to take opponents down and fish for arm bars or rear-naked chokes, but she’s also a capable striker with seven of her wins coming by KO/TKO. This sets up as a prime opportunity for her to land another first round armbar, which is how Na has finished her last five submissions and how Gomez Juarez has lost both of her UFC fights. To some extent it almost sets up too well, and it’s no secret that Na sells out early for submissions and Gomez Juarez’s grappling and submission defense has been non-existent. That should drive Na’s ownership up well past Gomez Juarez’s, who despite her shortcomings is still the favorite in this matchup. Na has a ridiculously wide range of scoring outcomes, with an early win or loss being the two most likely outcomes. Whoever wins this fight should put up a big score barring some sort of freak occurrence. The odds imply Na has a 46% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Batgerel Danaa
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Looking to bounce back from the first early loss of his career, Danaa suffered a R2 TKO loss to Chris Gutierrez just three months ago. Prior to that loss, Danaa landed three straight first round knockouts against mid-to-low-level opponents after losing a decision in his 2019 UFC debut. Impressively, Danaa’s last eight wins have all come early, with his last five victories occurring in round one and the two before that ending in round two. While Danaa has lost the last two decisions he’s been to, he notably has a decision win over Kai Kara-France on his pre-UFC record, although that was all the way back in 2013 in his third pro fight.
In his last fight, Danaa struggled to find his range against Chris Gutierrez, who did a good job of evading and using his kicks to control the distance. Nevertheless, Danaa pushed forward looking for knockout shots throughout the fight and landed a late takedown in round one, the first of his UFC career, followed by heavy ground and pound to finish the round strong. Gutierrez continued to force Danaa to chase him and midway through round two Danaa walked into a spinning backfist that dropped him. Gutierrez immediately jumped on top and landed a few more shots on the ground and the fight was immediately stopped. Gutierrez finished ahead 41-30 in significant strikes, while Danaa led in total strikes 43-42 and in takedowns 1-0.
Danaa is now 12-3 as a pro, with eight KOs, two submissions, and two decisions. He has just the one early loss, which came in his recent R2 KO defeat, with his other two losses ending in decisions. His last four fights have all ended in the first two rounds and he’s never landed a finish beyond round two. Seven of his 10 finishes have come in round one, with three ending in round two. He’s fought anywhere from 125 lb to 155 lb, but the majority of his career has been spent at 135 lb, including all of his UFC fights.
Overall, Danaa has only landed one takedown in the UFC and he’s primarily a striker with a background in kickboxing. He hasn’t had to defend a single takedown attempt in his last four fights, but was taken down three times on seven attempts in his UFC debut. All seven of those attempts came in the third round of that fight, once he was already somewhat worn down. While he’s a very dangerous striker, we haven’t seen much from him in terms of grappling as he hasn’t been forced to grapple defensively in his last four matches. However, we definitely expect that to change in this next matchup.
Kyung Ho Kang
11th UFC Fight (6-3, NC)Looking to bounce back from a November 2021 decision loss to Rani Yahya, Kang has only fought the one time since December 2019. His last three fights have all gone the distance, and he won a pair of split decisions prior to his recent loss. All 10 of Kang’s UFC fights have either ended in submissions (3-0) or decisions (3-3, NC). All three of those submission wins came against pretty questionable opponents. Amazingly, five of his seven decisions have been split. He had a 2013 split decision loss to Alex Caceres overturned to a No Contest when Caceres tested positive for THC or else he would be just 3-4 in UFC decisions. With that said, he’s gone 6-2 in his last eight fights and has never been finished in the UFC.
In his recent loss, Kang got taken down early by the submission specialist in Rani Yahya, but was able to return to his feet and drop Yahya later in the round to win round one. Yahya was able to take Kang back down early in round two and control him on the mat for the entire round. Then, after a brief scramble to start the third round, Yahya was able to regain control of Kang on the mat and finish the round on top to win rounds two and three and win a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Now 17-9 as a pro, Kang has two wins by KO, 11 by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, has one DQ loss, and six decision losses. His lone KO loss came in the first round of his third pro fight back in 2008, while the only time he's ever been submitted came in the first round of a 2011 match. Kang has good size for the division and started his pro career at 154 lb in 2007, but has been at 135 lb since 2011.
Overall, Kang relies mostly on his grappling and has shown himself to be somewhat of a submission threat, but has mostly fought to close decisions since joining the UFC. He has decent striking, but has never landed more than 65 significant strikes in a fight and averages just 2.56 SSL/min. He also averages 2.2 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a 59% takedown accuracy to go along with a 68% defense.
Fight Prediction:
Kang will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
The theme of this card continues here as we have yet another grappler versus striker matchup, with the striker favored according to the odds. Both guys have found solid success in the UFC, so it will be interesting to see which style prevails. Danaa has been very dangerous with his hands, but struggled to stay upright late in his UFC debut, which eventually cost him the decision. He hasn’t had to defend a single takedown attempt in his last four fights, but we expect that to change here barring an early knockout. Kang has generally done a good job of controlling his opponents on the mat as he looks for submissions and banks close rounds, and he impressively hasn’t been knocked out in over 14 years. As long as that durability holds up, we like his chances to get this fight to the ground and grind out a wrestling-heavy decision victory, but he’ll need to be very careful not to get clipped by anything early on. If it does end early, look for the stoppage to come in round one, but we’re taking Kang by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Kang Decision” at +240.
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DFS Implications:
Danaa has been your quintessential R1 KO or bust DFS play with all three of his UFC wins ending in first round knockouts that have averaged 115 DraftKings points. He has yet to show that he can get the job done against high level opponents, but he has unquestionable power in his hands and is a threat to finish fights with a single punch early on. He hasn’t finished an opponent beyond the first round since 2018 and has only landed one takedown in five UFC fights, so his scoring success appears dependent on landing a first round knockout. He’ll now face a grappler who hasn’t been knocked out in over 14 years. We expect him to be defending takedowns for the first time since his UFC debut, and his last four opponents haven’t even looked to get the fight to the ground. That makes this a tough spot to feel confident in him and he’s sure to go over owned relative to his chances of landing the first round knockout that he’s relied on to score well and win fights. The odds imply he has a 54% chance to win, a 33% chance to get a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Kang has scored 100 or more DraftKings points in four of his six UFC wins, and has been a consistent DFS producer. He’s averaged 112 points in his three submission victories, while he’s returned totals of 93 and 100 in his last two decision wins. He did have one lower scoring decision back in 2014 where he only scored 57 points, but he’s scored at least 93 in his other five UFC victories. He relies on grappling and submissions to win fights and hasn’t landed a TKO victory since 2011. He’s a better play on DraftKings and needs a finish to score well on FanDuel. Danaa has never been submitted in his career, which has us less excited about playing Kang on FanDuel and we’re banking on a grappling-heavy decision win with lots of control time and ground strikes. Obviously Kang will need to be careful not to get caught by any of Danaa’s heavy punches early on, but he should have a massive grappling advantage once the fight hits the mat. The odds imply he has a 46% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Brendan Allen
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Allen will be dropping back down to his normal 185 lb weight class after landing a second round submission win in a short notice fight against Sam Alvey up at 205 lb this past February. Prior to that, Allen was knocked out in the second round by Chris Curtis who took that fight on short notice. Allen appeared to underestimate Curtis as he came in expecting that he’d be able to do whatever he wanted in the fight. He was lulled into a striking battle in the second round and paid dearly for it as Curtis connected with a clean right cross that severely wobbled Allen. At that point, Allen tried to use the clinch to buy time to recover, but Curtis finished the job along the fence. Allen was unable to secure any of his three takedown attempts in the fight. That’s the second time Allen has been knocked out in the second round in his last five fights after Sean Strickland also finished him back in 2020. Those are Allen’s only two UFC losses, and he’s won 10 of his last 12 fights.
Allen’s fights have fallen into a weird cycle where he’ll finish an opponent on the mat, then appear to get bored with his grappling and look to take part in a striking battle, win a decision, and then get overconfident in his striking the next time around and get knocked out. To illustrate what we’re talking about, Allen finished Tom Breese on the mat in the first round of a February 2020 fight. Then, he took on Kyle Daukaus and never attempted a single takedown, but won a decision. He then took on Sean Strickland, and again didn’t attempt a single takedown before getting KO’d in the second round. After getting knocked out for the first time in his career, he reverted back to his grappling and submitted Karl Roberson in the first round of his next fight. Regaining his confidence, he then won a decision over Punahele Soriano and only attempted one failed takedown in the match. After winning that decision, he was then again knocked out in the second round of his last fight as he again failed to land a takedown. After getting humbled once again, he most recently landed another submission, so he’s now at the point in the cycle where he should be looking to outland his way to a decision win on the feet if this trend continues.
In his last fight, Allen looked to grapple early, but Alvey was able to keep the fight standing. That ended up working out fine for Allen, as he was able to methodically pick Alvey apart from the outside, while Alvey looked to counter strike as he always does, and to his credit, he was able to land some clean shots. Allen appeared to hurt Alvey late in round one as he dropped Alvey to a knee with a stiff punch, but Alvey was able to hang on and survive. Allen then dropped Alvey again in round two and immediately hopped on his back as he rained down ground and pound and then quickly locked up a no-hooks rear-naked choke to force a tap. The fight ended with Allen ahead 36-24 in striking in the lower volume match.
Now 18-5 as a pro, Allen has five wins by KO, 10 by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, both times in the second round, and submitted once in his third pro fight by Trevin Giles. He also has two five-round LFA decision losses to Anthony Hernandez and Eryk Anders. So all five of his career losses have come against current UFC fighters, but three of those occurred before he joined the UFC. Six of his eight UFC fights have ended early, while he won both of the decisions he’s been to with the organization, with both of those wins coming against opponents with wrestling/grappling backgrounds.
Overall, Allen is a BJJ black belt and is most dangerous on the mat, but he has a low fight IQ and often fails to take the path of least resistance. He seems like the type of guy that probably used to stick knives in electrical outlets as a kid to see what would happen. He’s a fairly patient striker on the feet, averaging 4.39 SSL/min, and has failed to land a takedown in any of his last three fights. In fact, he’s only landed four takedowns in his eight UFC fights and those came against one-dimensional strikers in Karl Roberson and Kevin Holland. While Allen’s last four opponents haven’t tried to take him down, his first four UFC opponents took him down five times on eight attempts (62.5%). His official takedown defense is listed at 50%, which includes his DWCS fight where his opponent failed to land either of his two attempts.
Jacob Malkoun
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Fresh off his second straight wrestling-heavy decision win, Malkoun has shown us two things so far in three UFC fights—he has a pretty suspect chin and he really likes to wrestle. After getting knocked out 18 seconds into his UFC debut, he wrestled his last two opponents to death, landing 14 takedowns on an insane 40 attempts, with over 20 minutes of total control time. Both of those wins notably came against one-dimensional strikers, so we’ve yet to see how his wrestling stacks up against actual grapplers.
In his last fight, Malkoun absorbed some punches early, but was able to survive, showing a better chin than in his debut. Nevertheless, as soon as he started absorbing damage he looked to get the fight to the ground, but struggled to complete takedowns in the first round as he was only able to land one of his first eight attempts. However, he found more success as the fight went on as he appeared to wear on Dobson, and Malkoun landed two takedowns on four attempts in round two and three more on another four attempts in round three. Each time Malkoun got Dobson to the ground, he was able to control him for longer than the last. His control time in the three rounds grew from 1:01 in round one to 3:45 in round two to 4:31 in round three. Malkoun finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 80-52 and in total strikes 183-68 as he won a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Still just 6-1 as a pro, Malkoun has two wins by TKO and four by decision. His lone loss occurred in the quick knockout in his UFC debut. Both of his TKO wins occurred in his first three pro fights and his last three wins have all gone the distance.
Overall, Malkoun hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat at the UFC level and he’s content with grinding out decisions on the mat, which appears to be his only path to victory. He’s a one dimensional wrestler, with no striking and a suspect chin. He’s also never landed a submission in his career, but did have two official submission attempts in his second most recent fight. Despite his wrestling heavy approach, Malkoun had a short stint in pro boxing, winning all three of his matches, but you wouldn’t guess it by watching him fight. Malkoun’s first three UFC fights were all on the undercard of his training partner, Robert Whittaker, and this will be the first time he’s fought without his security blanket also on the card.
Fight Prediction:
Allen will have a 5” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
We’ve seen Allen try to keep fights standing when he faces grapplers/wrestlers in the past, and he never even attempted a takedown against Kyle Daukaus. We also only saw him go for one half-hearted attempt against former college wrestler Punahele Soriano, and Allen was still able to win both of those fights. He’ll use his submission skills when he needs to, but he seems to have fallen in love with striking, and it looks like he would prefer to keep things standing given the choice. Allen should have the advantage on the feet in this fight, so there’s a good chance he doesn’t look for many if any takedowns, while Malkoun will be the one looking to take Allen down. While Allen is a solid grappler, his takedown defense has been poor. Sean Strickland took Allen down on his only attempt and Kyle Daukaus took Allen down three times on five attempts and finished with nearly eight minutes of control time. Even Kevin Holland took Allen down on his only attempt when they fought back in Allen’s UFC debut. Malkoun has ridiculously averaged 20 takedown attempts in his last two fights, while Allen has been taken down on 62.5% of his opponents’ attempts since joining the UFC. If those numbers hold up, Malkoun could once again be looking at double digit takedown numbers as long as he can remain conscious. While that doesn’t feel super likely, we’ve seen Allen overlook opponents in the past. Considering how much more well rounded Allen is, he’s rightfully the favorite and has a good chance of landing a finish, but we won’t be at all shocked if Malkoun continues to find wrestling success here and makes this fight much closer than the odds suggest. Malkoun’s decision line is far too wide considering that’s basically the only way he wins this fight. Allen is still the more likely of the two to get a win here, and he can threaten a finish wherever this fight takes place. He should be able to dominate Malkoun on the feet, and will also threaten submissions on the mat. Malkoun will need to execute a flawless wrestling performance to win a decision in this spot, and if you take the odds out of the equation, then we’re still taking Allen to win this fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Malkoun Decision” at +700.
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DFS Implications:
Allen is coming off a second round submission win that scored “just” 96 DraftKings points despite the fact that he landed a knockdown in the match. The only times he’s landed takedowns in the UFC have been when he faced one-dimensional strikers in Karl Roberson and Kevin Holland, and now he’ll face just the opposite in a one-dimensional wrestler in Jacob Malkoun. Therefore, there’s a good chance that Allen won’t be looking for takedowns in this matchup, which limits his upside to some extent. It’s certainly still possible that he scrambles around on the mat enough to land reversals and end up in top position, scoring from control time, but we’d be surprised if he was the one initiating the grappling exchanges. He’s fallen in love with his striking, and will likely be looking to capitalize on the suspect chin of Malkoun, which is a fair approach and certainly has the potential to be successful. However, Allen doesn’t land enough volume to return value without either an early finish or a good amount of grappling stats, and he also has the potential to get controlled at times in this matchup. At his high price tag, he appears reliant on landing a finish to return value and he ended up winning decisions against the last two opponents he faced with grappling/wrestling backgrounds. He scored 68 and 94 points in those two fights, but the 94 points he scored against Daukaus is probably the better comp for this upcoming matchup. At his expensive price tag, that result still would not be good enough for him to be useful, further leading us to believe he needs a finish. And even if he does get a finish, he hasn’t been the type of fighter to put up slate-breaking scores, as he’s averaged 105 DraftKings points in his four UFC finishes. So in the end, the finish will likely need to come in the first round and will need some stats behind it (i.e. not a guillotine choke or triangle choke 90 seconds into the fight). The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 44% chance to get a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in the first round.
Malkoun is coming off two straight dominating wrestling performances, where he landed 14 combined takedowns on an insane 40 attempts with over 20 minutes of total control time. Those were good for 129 and 115 DraftKings points and 104 and 94 points on FanDuel. So he’s clearly a better DraftKings play, but can still score somewhat decently on FanDuel. Both of those wins notably came against one-dimensional strikers, so he’s yet to show he can achieve that sort of performance against an opponent with a grappling background such as Allen, but that simply makes this a higher variance spot. Allen has been taken down five times on eight attempts in the UFC, so he’s struggled to defend takedowns despite being a BJJ black belt and known for his grappling. Malkoun will have to be careful to avoid getting submitted if he is able to get this fight to the ground, and Allen is capable of knocking him out on the feet as well. However, if he can keep his chin and neck out of harm's way, there’s a chance we see him put up another big score in a third straight wrestling-heavy decision victory. That’s really the only way we see him winning this fight, and he hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat since joining the UFC. It’s a small needle to thread, but the potential is still there for him to put up a slate breaking score at low ownership and with a cheap price tag. The odds imply Malkoun has a 28% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Steve Garcia
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off his first UFC win, Garcia knocked out Charlie Ontiveros early in the second round of an October 2021 fight. He’s won four of his last five fights, with all four wins coming by KO in under a round and a half. After fighting most of his career at 135 lb, with just a couple fights at 145 lb, Garcia made his short notice UFC debut against Luis Pena in February 2020 up at Lightweight 155 lb, which was the first time Garcia had ever fought at the weight class. Pena smothered Garcia on the ground for the entire fight, finishing with over 14 minutes of control time on his way to winning a decision. Garcia then took 20 months off before returning to the Octagon in October 2021 for his most recent match, also at 155 lb. While Garcia only has two UFC fights under his belt, he also had a split-decision loss to 2021 TUF winner Ricky Turcios in a 2016 Bellator fight, followed by a decision win over Ronnie Lawrence later that year, also in Bellator.
Garcia originally tried to make his way into the UFC through DWCS in 2019, but despite landing a first round knockout victory he still wasn’t immediately rewarded with a UFC contract and instead fought his next fight in the LFA. That can be explained by the fact that Garcia missed weight by 3.5 lb for the 135 lb fight. That win came against Desmond Torres, who had spent a good portion of his career down at 125 lb, making the weight miss even more impactful. After not getting a contract, Garcia then took a fight in the LFA in January 2020 up at 145 lb. Despite moving up to 145 lb, Garcia again missed weight, checking in a pound and a half over the limit. In a high-paced brawl, Garcia won with a round two TKO, but it came in a really quick/terrible stoppage with both fighters on their feet and Garcia’s opponent, Jose Mariscal, still fighting back.
In his last fight, Garcia got clipped with an axe kick in the opening seconds of the fight that had him momentarily wobbled, but he appeared to quickly recover. However, not long after he got dropped for the second time in the opening 30 seconds of the fight, this time with a clean left hand. That left Garcia desperately looking to grab a leg of Ontiveros to look for a takedown and buy time to recover. He was able to land the takedown against the one-dimensional striker in Ontiveros, and while Ontiveros briefly returned to his feet, Garcia dumped him again and eventually started landing heavy elbows that split Ontiveros open. The two fighters traded shots to start round two, but Garcia again took him to the mat and assaulted him with ground and pound until the fight was eventually stopped, as Ontiveros looked helpless off his back.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Garcia has nine wins by KO and three by decision. Four of those knockouts occurred in the first round, four ended in the first half of round two and one came in round three. He’s never been knocked out himself, with his only early loss ending in a R1 submission against a super suspect Aalon Cruz in 2018. Garcia’s other three pro losses have all ended in decisions.
Overall, Garcia is appropriately nicknamed the “Mean Machine” as he’s a nasty brawler who throws punches with ill intentions as he looks to knockout every opponent he faces. His background is in kickboxing and after transitioning to MMA he spent a good chunk of time in Bellator before working his way into the UFC. He showed in his last fight he’s capable of taking fights to the mat and finishing opponents with ground and pound.
Maheshate
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a DWCS decision win, Maheshate became the first Chinese born fighter to win on the show. That was his sixth straight victory, with his previous five wins coming in the WLF Chinese organization. He hasn’t faced much in terms of competition in his career, and that recent win was actually the first time he had ever faced an opponent with a winning record.
In his decision win on DWCS, Maheshate’s opponent, Achilles Estremadura, came out of the gates firing as the two threw heavy shots from the opening bell. Maheshate got dropped to a knee early on with a big punch less than a minute into the fight, but immediately recovered and showed a solid chin. After starting so explosively, Estremadura unsurprisingly began to slow down some in round two, but the major turning point in the fight was when Maheshate landed a huge flying knee late in round two. Estremadura was able to survive but looked to be hurt as he tied up Maheshate in the clinch to buy time to recover. Maheshate controlled the fight from that point on and rolled to a low-volume unanimous 29-28 decision win. He narrowly finished ahead in significant strikes 49-48 and in total strikes 56-49. No takedowns were attempted in the fight.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Maheshate has three wins by KO, one by submission, and four decisions. His only loss came in his third pro fight, in a 2019 decision that occurred just a couple of months after he turned pro, when he was fighting every 3-4 weeks. All but one of his nine career fights have made it out of the first round, with five going the distance. Maheshate fought at 170 lb just before going on DWCS, which is the only time he’s ever landed a first round finish, but the rest of his career has been spent at 155 lb, where he’ll be making his debut.
Overall, Maheshate looks to be a pure striker who started out boxing as a young teenager. He claims to have briefly wrestled as well, before transitioning to MMA when he was 17. Still just 23 years old, he only turned pro three years ago in June 2019, when he was 20. He’s shown a solid chin and looks like a patient striker who will pick his spots while trying to remain defensively sound. We did see him absorb several heavy shots early in his last fight, but he was able to weather the storm and win the later rounds.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” but Garcia will have a 4” reach advantage and is seven years older than the 23-year-old Maheshate.
This sets up primarily as a striking battle, although we’ve seen Garcia shoot for takedowns when he needs to or when he’s in trouble on the feet. Both fighters have been durable throughout their careers and neither has ever been knocked out, but Maheshate has also yet to ever face a UFC level opponent. After seeing Maheshate get controlled on the mat for extended periods of time earlier in his career along with the success that Garcia had on the ground in his last fight, it would make sense for Garcia to get this fight to the ground and look for ground and pound. With that said, he’s primarily a striker so it’s tougher to know what his game plan will be coming in. If he can get the fight to the mat there’s a pretty good chance he can finish it through ground and pound and he’s also dangerous on the feet, but we actually like him to win a decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Garcia Decision” at +380.
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DFS Implications:
Garcia is coming off his first UFC win, which ended in a second round ground and pound TKO and scored 116 DraftKings points. His three wins prior to joining the UFC also all ended in TKOs in the opening two rounds and he’s only been to one decision in his last five fights, which came in his short notice 2020 UFC debut where he got controlled on the mat for three rounds. Now he’ll be the veteran taking on a UFC newcomer, which is generally the spot you want to be in. This is still just Garcia’s third pro fight up at 155 lb, and most of his career was spent down at 135 lb, so there’s still some uncertainty in terms of his sustained finishing ability at the higher weight class. However, if he can get this fight to the ground there’s a good chance he can get a finish as he throws nasty elbows on the mat. There’s also the slight potential for him to still score well in a decision if he comes in with a more grappling heavy approach and racks up takedowns, control time, and ground strikes, although it’s much tougher to rely on that. Overall, this fight has a wide range of scoring outcomes, as Garcia’s opponent, Maheshate, has looked durable and patient which isn’t ideal for DFS production from either guy. If it stays standing, neither guy will score well without a finish, but Garcia has landed KO/TKOs in 75% of his career wins and has a solid scoring ceiling here. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Maheshate is still really young and green at just 23 years old and three years into his pro career. He looked pretty solid and durable in his DWCS decision win, but that was notably the first time he had ever faced an opponent with a winning record. So it’s hard to put too much stock into his previous finishes, as they all came against low-level opponents. He’ll now be making his UFC debut against an opponent with far more experience in front of a live crowd on a big PPV card, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of being under the bright lights. With no grappling game and not a ton of striking volume, Maheshate’s fighting style doesn’t lend itself well to DFS production and he appears reliant on landing a knockout even at his cheaper price tag. Working against him, Garcia has never been knocked out and is a more well rounded fighter who can take the fight to the ground if he gets in trouble. This looks like a tough spot for Maheshate to succeed and he’s probably not quite ready for the UFC until he rounds out his grappling. He looks like a hail mary KO or bust play in DFS. The odds seem generous but imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 24% chance to win, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
SeungWoo Choi
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Looking to bounce back from a second round submission loss to Alex Caceres, Choi had won three straight prior to that loss, with a first round knockout of Julian Erosa in his most recent win. He’s faced several tough opponents in the UFC and this looks like one of his easier matchups.
In his last fight, Choi started off great, but Caceres was able to survive some early adversity as he quickly recovered after being dropped by a stiff right hand in the opening minutes. That fight was on the verge of being called off after Choi landed an illegal knee as Caceres returned to his feet just after getting rocked by the right hand. While that compounded the damage Caceres took, it also gave him some additional time to recover from both the legal and illegal strikes. Caceres was fortunately cleared by the doctor to continue as he refused to milk the effects of the illegal strike as we’ve seen many fighters do, especially just after getting rocked from a legal blow. Caceres looked to effectively recover from both blows following the break in the action. Choi continued to show an advantage on the feet, but three minutes into round two Caceres was able to take his back on the feet as he looked to wrap up a rear-naked choke. Choi collapsed to his knees and quickly tapped as Caceres secured his second rear-naked choke victory in his last three fights. The fight ended with Caceres ahead in significant strikes 46-33 and in total strikes 54-38.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Choi has six wins by KO and four decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. His last two losses have both come by submissions, while his lone decision loss came in his UFC debut against Movsar Evloev. The only time he’s been knocked out came in the first round of a 2017 fight, two years before he joined the UFC. While he’s only landed one knockout in six UFC fights, prior to joining the UFC, five of his seven wins were by KO, including three in the first round.
Overall, Choi is a solid but one-dimensional striker and has struggled in grappling exchanges. He was taken down 10 times on 29 attempts in his first two UFC fights, but has only been taken down 3 times on 10 attempts in his last four matches. He excels when he can keep fights standing and now he faces an opponent who’s not known for his grappling.
Josh Culibao
4th UFC Fight (1–1-1)Coming off his first UFC win in a close decision over a one-dimensional grappler making his UFC debut, Culibao was forced to defend takedowns for basically the entire fight. Prior to that, Culibao fought to a draw against Charles Jourdain, but you could easily make the case that Jourdain won the fight. Culibao made his UFC debut up a weight class in 2020 with a perfect 8-0 record and took on a massive Lightweight in Jalin Turner, who was able to knock Culibao out in the second round. Since that fight came up at 155 lb, Culibao has still never lost a fight at his normal 145 lb weight class.
In Culibao’s last fight, he did a good job of defending the takedown attempts from wrestler Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, who was only able to land 2 of his 14 attempts and struggled to do anything with the two he did land. Culibao finished ahead in significant strikes 53-17 and in total strikes 87-23 as he won a unanimous 29-28 decision. Nuerdanbieke looked the most dangerous with his grappling in the first round and may have tired himself out to some extent as he went 1 for 6 on takedowns in the first five minutes and then just 0 for 3 in the second round before closing 1 for 5 in the third.
Now 9-1-1 as a pro, Culibao has five wins by TKO and four decision victories. His only loss came in a second round TKO in his UFC debut. Three of his TKO wins occurred in the first round, although two of those came in his first three pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-2 and 2-2. His remaining two finishes came in the championship rounds of 2017 and 2018 matches. Interestingly, four of his five decisions have been split/majority.
Overall, Culibao hasn’t done much to impress us so far in his career. He’s relied on striking to win fights, and while he has attempted 11 takedowns in his three UFC fights, he’s yet to land one. He doesn’t really appear to be a UFC level talent, and he could be fighting for his job here.
Fight Prediction:
Choi will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Choi is the superior striker in this matchup, so it will be interesting to see if Culibao comes in looking to grapple more. He’s yet to land a takedown in the UFC, but does have 11 attempts in three fights. We could see him try to keep things standing but then shoot for a desperation takedown once Choi exerts his dominance in the striking exchanges. Culibao’s best hope will be to get the fight to the ground and multiple points. However, he’s never landed a submission in his career and has yet to land a takedown in the UFC, so it’s hard to say what his ground game actually looks like if he does get Choi down. He’d likely just be looking to control Choi and land ground and pound to ride to try and squeak out a decision win, but we don’t see it happening. We expect this fight to stay standing for all or the majority and for Choi to put on a striking clinic. There’s a good chance he can knock Culibao out, but it wouldn’t be that surprising to see it go the distance either. Regardless, we like Choi to win, most likely by KO, but potentially in a decision if Culibao’s chin holds up.
Our favorite bet here is “Choi KO” at +175.
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DFS Implications:
Choi is a great striker, but his one-dimensional fighting style generally leaves him reliant on landing a finish to return value in DFS—although he did have one somewhat flukey high scoring decision on DraftKings where he racked up a ton of control time despite not landing any takedowns and scored 103 points in a decision. His more recent decision scored just 69 DraftKings points, which seems more in line with what you can expect out of him. His patient striking and high price tag appear to leave him reliant on landing a first round knockout to return volume, but there are certainly ways he can surprise us and still score well with a later finish. He should go lower owned than most of the fighters priced around him, which makes him an interesting tournament play. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
While Culibao has yet to land a takedown in the UFC, he does have 11 attempts in three fights, so the potential is at least there. He hasn’t shown great technique, but has shown the willingness to keep trying. Culibao has yet to land more than 53 significant strikes in a UFC fight and scored just 58 DraftKings points in his recent decision win. So unless he’s able to get a finish or surprise us with a grappling-heavy performance, we don’t see him returning value with a decision win even at his cheaper price tag. He’s probably one of the least interesting underdogs on the slate, which should keep his ownership in check, which is really the best thing he has going for him, other than the slim chance he can find success on the mat. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance to end it in the first round.
Fight #5
Jack Della Maddalena
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Extending his winning streak to 11 with a first round knockout in his recent UFC debut, Della Maddalena defeated a debuting short notice replacement and one-dimensional striker in Pete Rodriguez after Warlley Alves dropped out. That turned what would have been a really tough matchup into a dream spot and we’ve yet to see Della Maddalena face anyone with any actual UFC experience. Nevertheless, Della Maddalena looked great in the fight and it was a near flawless performance. Prior to joining the UFC, Della Maddalena was the five-time Eternal MMA Welterweight Champion in Australia and then he punched his ticket to the UFC with a decision win on DWCS in 2021.
In his recent UFC debut win, Della Maddalena did a good job of controlling the distance as he effortlessly pieced Rodriguez up from the outside. Della Maddalena did a great job of controlling the distance while still landing a ton of good shots. He finished ahead 43-25 in striking in a fight that lasted just three minutes, landing a blistering 14.41 SS/min. No takedowns were attempted in the fight and it played out as a pure kickboxing match.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Della Maddalena has won 11 straight since losing the first two fights of his pro career. He has nine wins by KO, one by submissions and one decision. He got knocked out in the third round of his 2016 pro debut, and was then submitted in the first round of his next fight before rattling off 11 straight victories. He’s only been to one decision in 13 pro fights, which came against a really tough Ange Loosa when Della Maddalena went on DWCS in his second most recent fight. Loosa shot for four takedowns in that match, but was only able to land one of them. Della Maddalena showed the ability to get up off his back and defend submissions when he did get taken down, but his most impressive attribute was clearly his boxing. Five of Della Maddalena’s 10 finishes have come in round one, with the other five ending in round two, and he’s only seen the third round twice in his career.
Overall, Della Maddalena relies mostly on his crisp boxing to win fights, but he is a BJJ brown belt and also has some Judo experience. He’s also a former rugby player and all around tough and durable fighter. It’s still too early to tell how he’ll fare long term in the UFC, and we should learn a lot about how well rounded his grappling is in this next matchup, but he’s a fun fighter to watch and a solid striker.
Ramazan Emeev
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Looking to bounce back from a questionable decision loss, Emeev has now gone the distance in eight straight fights, with three of those being split, including his last two. He’s just 2-2 in his last four matches, after winning seven straight fights before that.
In his last fight, Emeev took on Danny Roberts, who was able to stuff five of Emeev’s seven takedown attempts, while also landing one of his own. In addition to narrowly leading in takedowns 2-1 and in control time 2:57-2:38, Emeev finished ahead in significant strikes 40-34 and in total strikes 67-42. While it was a pretty close fight, it seemed like Emeev had done enough to win, but two of the judges disagreed and Roberts won a split decision.
Now 20-5 as a pro, Emeev has three wins by KO, seven by submission, and 10 decisions. He’s been knocked out once in the fourth round of a 2014 fight, submitted once, in his second pro fight back in 2009, and has three decision losses. Emeev spent most of his pre-UFC career at 185 lb, but dropped down to 170 lb in his second UFC fight, where he’s stayed since. He did fight his first two pro fights at 170 lb, where he went 1-1 with both fights ending in first round submissions, but those are the only times he’s had a 170 lb fight end early. The last time he finished an opponent was in a 2016 R1 submission win when he was still fighting at 185 lb with the M-1 promotion.
Overall, Emeev is a Dagestani wrestler and former M-1 Middleweight Champion, who looks to grind out decisions on the mat. While Emeev has just a 29% career takedown accuracy, he still averages 2.3 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and is relentless with his attempts. He’s landed 10 takedowns on 28 attempts in his last three fights. His nonstop grappling results in all around lower striking volume and he’s never landed more than 53 or absorbed more than 44 significant strikes in any of his seven UFC fights, despite them all going the distance. He hasn’t faced the toughest competition in the UFC, so it will be interesting to see how his chin holds up against a more dangerous striker in this next one.
Fight Prediction:
Della Maddalena will have a 1” height advantage, but Emeev will have a 3” reach advantage. Della Maddalena is 10 years younger than the 35-year-old Emeev.
This is a weird matchup between one of the more exciting prospects and one of the most boring veterans. However, inline with the rest of this card, we see a grappling underdog take on a striking favorite. This will be a good test for both Emeev’s chin and Della Maddalena’s defensive wrestling. While we generally side with the grappler in these types of situations, we actually kind of like Della Maddalena’s chances of landing a knockout here. We still expect Emeev to find some grappling success, especially early, but we like Della Maddalena to wear on him with strikes as the fight goes on and to land a second round knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Della Maddalena ITD” at +240.
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DFS Implications:
Della Maddalena is coming off a near flawless performance in his UFC debut where he landed a first round knockout and scored 117 DraftKings points, but keep in mind that came against a short notice replacement making his UFC debut, and now Della Maddalena will get a major step up in competition. No one has ever put up a big score in any of Emeev’s UFC fights, so we should pump the brakes to some extent here, as all of Emeev’s UFC fights have ended in low-volume, grappling-heavy decisions. With that said, Della Maddalena’s fighting style is perfectly suited for DFS production as he’s an uptempo striker who has landed finishes in the first two rounds in 10 of his last 11 fights. This is a higher variance spot with a wide range of outcomes, where Emeev will be looking to slow the pace and Della Maddalena will be dependent on landing another finish to score well. The odds imply Della Maddalena has a 59% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Emeev has never been one to score well in DFS, and he’s averaged just 76 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, which have all gone the distance. He only topped 82 points in one of those, which was when he scored 94 points in his last victory. He’s now coming off a split-decision loss that looked like it should have gone his way, but he still would have scored just 67 points even if it had. While his fighting style is far better suited to the DraftKings scoring system opposed to FanDuel, you’re still relying on him hitting a ceiling performance to pay off. Considering Della Maddalena only has three minutes of Octagon time in the UFC and didn’t have to defend a takedown during that time, this is somewhat of a high variance spot and Della Maddalena should push the pace and potentially force Emeev to be a little more active. So at his cheaper price tag, this is somewhat of a favorable spot for Emeev to score well if he does get the win, but there’s also a decent chance he gets finished for the first time in the UFC. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Andre Fialho
4th UFC Fight (2-1)After just making his UFC debut in January of this year, Fialho has already fought three times with the organization and appears to want to fight every month if they’ll let him. After losing a decision to Michel Pereira in his debut, Fialho knocked out Miguel Baeza in the first round of an April fight and then followed it up with a first round KO of UFC newcomer Cameron VanCamp just three weeks later. Now he’ll fight for the fourth time this year and third time in the last two months. Two of his three UFC fights have been on short notice, while this next one was booked 29 days out
In his last fight, Fialho looked to be hurt a minute and a half into the fight by VanCamp, but VanCamp foolishly never attempted a takedown and his hands by his side approach to fighting eventually caught up to him as Fialho recovered and caught him with a clean left hook to the chin that immediately ended the fight. The match ended midway through round one with VanCamp ahead in striking 19-17 and no takedowns attempts.
Now 16-4 as a pro, Fialho has 13 wins by KO, one by submission, and just two decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has two decision losses, with all four of his career losses coming against fighters who are currently or were previously in the UFC (2016 R1 KO vs. Chidi Njokuani, 2019 R3 KO vs. Chris Curtis, 2020 R3 DEC vs. Antonio dos Santos Jr. and 2022 R3 DEC vs. Michel Pereira). Fialho’s last six wins have all come by KO in a round and a half or less, with the last five ending in round one. His only loss in his last seven fights came in a hardfought decision in his UFC debut against Michel Pereira. Overall, 12 of his 14 finishes have come in round one, with the other two ending in the first half of round two. He’s lost his last three fights that have lasted longer than a round and a half.
Overall, Fialho is essentially a one-dimensional boxer, but still just 28 years old, so he has time to round out his skillset. He’s got good hands, but he can be a little heavy on his lead leg and has looked prone to getting that lead leg chewed up. He’s most dangerous in the opening five minutes and has been prone to fading down the stretch at times. Ten of his 12 finishes have occurred in the first round, while the other two ended in the first half of round two. He has a background in boxing and trains out of Sanford MMA. He’s a BJJ purple belt, and he’s not much of a submission threat with just one win by submission on his record. He’s lost his last three fights that have made it past the midway mark of round two, and four if you count the loss that was later overturned to a No Contest.
Jake Matthews
16th UFC Fight (10-5)Matthews had been set to face Jeremiah Wells in December 2021, but one of Wells’ cornermen tested positive for COVID the day of the event and it was canceled the day of the event.
Looking to bounce back from a third round submission loss against Sean Brady, Matthews has now been submitted in the third round in each of his last two losses. Despite being just 27 years old, Matthews already has 15 UFC fights to his name after he joined the organization at just 19 years old. Prior to his recent loss, Matthews had won his last three fights and six of his previous seven. However, five of those six wins went the distance and he hasn’t looked like much of a finisher. No one has ever landed more than 50 significant strikes on Matthews in his UFC career. At the same time, Matthews has only landed above 63 significant strikes once, which was when he totaled 72 against a washed Diego Sanchez in his second most recent fight.
Despite Matthews being a BJJ black belt with seven submission wins on his record, Brady, who’s also a BJJ black belt, had a clear advantage on the mat. Matthews was able to catch a kick while simultaneously landing a right cross that put Brady on his back midway through the first round. However, Brady immediately recovered and reversed the position to end up on top, where he worked his way towards another one-armed Guillotine attempt and ultimately finished the round in dominant position. Brady returned the fight to the ground 90 seconds into the second round and again spent the remainder of the round in top position hunting for a Guillotine. Then Brady wobbled Matthews with a left hook early in R3 and a minute later had him biting him so hard on a takedown feint that Matthews actually fell forward and then Brady was able to grab his neck and work around to his back on the mat. Brady continued to dominate from top position as he worked his way to an Arm-Triangle Choke and quickly forced a tap. It was a one-sided dominating performance by Brady and he continued to showcase his well rounded game both on the feet and the mat.
Now 17-5 as a pro, Matthews has four wins by KO, seven by submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has one decision loss. His lone KO loss came in the first round of a 2016 fight against Kevin Lee when Matthews was still fighting down at 155 lb. He followed that up with a decision loss at Lightweight, before moving back up to 170 lb in 2017, where he started his career and has stayed since 2017. He went 4-3 in the UFC at 155 lb, with all four of those wins coming early. Since moving up to 170 lb, he’s gone 6-2 with five of his six wins going the distance. Both of his losses at 170 lb ended in third round submissions. Eight of his last nine fights have made it to the third round, with six ending in decisions. He’s won the last five decisions he’s been to.
Overall, Matthews is a decent striker but isn’t much of a threat to end things on the feet. His only UFC KO came in a 2015 doctor stoppage following the second round. He has good mobility, which helps him to avoid taking much damage, and he only absorbs an average of 3.03 significant strikes/minute. He’s also a pretty good wrestler with four UFC submission wins and seven in his career. He averages 1.9 takedowns/15 minutes, with a 41% takedown accuracy.
Fight Prediction:
Fialho will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
This is yet another fight on this card where we have a grappling underdog taking on a pure striker who’s favored to win. Fialho is an early KO or bust fighter who doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling. He’s looked great since joining the UFC, but his last two opponents have come in with the stupidest game plans possible, covering up any potential warts in Fialho’s game. He wasn’t forced to defend a takedown in either of those fights, despite both opponents having massive grappling advantages over him. Fialho was able to defend three of Pereira’s four takedown attempts in his debut, but overall struggles when you put him on his back. We’d be shocked if Matthews didn’t come in with a grappling heavy gameplan here, but we see fighters make head scratching decisions every week so you never know. With that said, we’re much more confident in a longtime UFC veteran making smart choices than we were in a brawling UFC newcomer who has “white belt gang” tattooed across his chest (VanCamp) in Fialho’s last fight. We like Matthews to patiently grind out a grappling-heavy decision win, but he has a slight chance of landing a submission. Obviously Fialho is always live to land a first round knockout, but that appears far less likely in this spot than his last one.
Our favorite bet here is “Matthews Decision” at +225.
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DFS Implications:
Fialho is a one-dimensional power puncher who has landed finishes in 14 of his 16 career wins and has knocked out two opponents in the last two months in the first round. Now priced at just $8,500/$17, we should see the field chase his recent results as he obviously put up big scores in both those spots. He’s an early KO or bust fighter with 12 of his 14 finishes occurring in round one, and the other two ending in the first half of round two. He’s lost his last three fights that have lasted longer than a round and a half and doesn’t land enough volume or have any sort of grappling to boost his scoring when fights run long. Even a second round knockout win doesn’t guarantee him a spot in winning tournament lineups and there’s a good chance he needs a R1 KO here. Matthews has only been knocked out once in his career, which came in 2016 against Kevin Lee when Matthews was fighting down at 155 lb. He’s since moved up to 170 lb, where he’s been prone to getting submitted, but we’ve yet to see him get finished on the feet. We expect Matthews to be looking to grapple, which should shrink Fialho’s window to land a knockout even further, and we’re not excited about playing Fialho in DFS at his high ownership. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Matthews is generally not one to put up big DFS scores as five of his last six wins have come by decision. He does offer a mix of striking and grappling that generally provides a decent DraftKings floor when he wins, but it’s rare for him to show much of a ceiling. He’ll likely need to land a submission to really score well, especially on FanDuel, but he has the potential to serve as a DraftKings value play even in a decision win. Whether or not that’s enough to end up in tournament winning lineups will likely depend on what the other underdogs do. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #3
Zhang Weili
8th UFC Fight (5-2)This will be a rematch of a March 2020 five-round brawl that Weili won by split-decision. Since that win, Weili lost two straight to Rose Namajunas, in a quick R1 KO followed by a five-round split decision. Weili has now alternated between fights that have ended in the first round (3-1) and ones that have gone the distance (3-1) in eight straight matches and is coming off a decision. Prior to her pair of losses to Namajunas, Weili had won 21 straight fights since losing her 2013 pro debut in a two round decision. She won her first five UFC fights, and won the Strawweight belt in her fourth fight with the organization in a 42 second R1 KO over Jessica Andrade.
In their first match, the two fighters traded strikes for five rounds with Weili landing the only takedown in the match in the second round. Jedrzejczyk headbutted Weili with a full on rhino charge late in round two, which appeared to leave Weili seriously compromised. However, Weili appeared to recover between rounds and the two landed an identical number of significant strikes in rounds three and four. Weili appeared to be the one landing the more powerful strikes in general, which you could probably guess just by looking at Jedrzejczyk’s head after the fight, but Jedrzejczyk landed more volumes, as the fight ended with Jedrzejczyk ahead 186-165 in significant strikes and 196-170 in total strikes. Weili was only able to land one of her eight takedown attempts and both fighters finished with about a minute of control time. The fight may go down as one of the best in Women’s MMA history and ended in a split-decision win for the champion in Weili. That was Weili’s first title defense after winning the belt against Andrade in her previous match. The fight was so close that the three judges only agreed on one of the five rounds.
Now 21-3 as a pro, Weili has 10 wins by KO, seven by submission, and four decisions. The only time she’s ever been finished came when she got knocked out and lost the belt to Namajunas in April 2021, with her other two losses both ending in decisions. It’s been nearly five years since Weili landed a finish beyond the four minute mark and despite having 17 early wins on her record, she’s never finished an opponent later than the second round. Weili started off fighting at 132 lb before dropping down to 115 lb in her fourth pro fight. Interestingly, all of her early wins have come in China or other parts of East Asia, while all three of her wins in the US have ended in decisions. Her KO loss to Namajunas took place in Jacksonville, Florida, which was the only time any of her US fights have ended early.
Overall, Weili is a powerful striker who will also mix in grappling and has shown she can finish opponents both on the mat and the feet. Two of her last three fights have ended in five-round split decisions (1-1) and she hasn’t landed a finish since 2019, which was the last time she fought outside of the US.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
15th UFC Fight (10-4)Finally returning to the Octagon following a 27 month layoff, Jedrzejczyk hasn’t competed since these two originally fought back in March 2020. Since getting knocked out by Rose Namajunas in the first round of a 2017 match, Jedrzejczyk has fought to five straight decisions, with four of those coming in five-round fights. In fact, nine of her last 10 fights have gone the distance, with eight of those going five rounds. Only three of her 14 UFC fights have failed to make it to the judges and those were a pair of late round KO/TKO wins in 2015 and the 2017 TKO loss to Namajunas.
Now 16-4 as a pro, Jedrzejczyk has four wins by KO, one by submission, and 11 decisions. Similar to Weili, the only early loss of her career came in a first round TKO against Rose Namajunas, while her other three losses have all gone the distance. All three of those decision losses have occurred in her last five fights against current or former champions in Rose Namajunas, Valentina Shevchenko, and Zhang Weili. Jedrzejczyk started her career at Flyweight, but dropped down to 115 lb when she joined the UFC in 2014. The only time she’s competed at 125 lb in the UFC was when she moved up for one fight in 2018 to take on Valentina Shevchenko for the Vacant Flyweight belt, as Shevchenko began her title run shortly after dropping down from 135 lb.
Overall, Jedrzejczyk is essentially a one-dimensional striker with a background in Muay Thai and kickboxing. She’s just a BJJ blue belt, but does hold a solid 81% takedown defense and consistently fends off a large number of takedown attempts from her opponents. The only opponent to get her down more than once in her last six fights was the larger Shevchenko, who went 5 for 14 on her attempts in Jedrzejczyk’s brief trip up to Flyweight. Jedrzejczyk’s last five Strawweight opponents have combined to go just 3 for 29 on their takedown attempts, landing at just a 10.3% clip. Jedrzejczyk’s stick and move approach to fighting has allowed her to land an impressive 6.30 SS/min, while absorbing an average of just 3.08/min. That’s the highest striking differential on the slate for anyone with more than one UFC fight and the 9th highest in UFC history for any fighter with at least five UFC fights (male or female).
Fight Prediction:
Jedrzejczyk will have a 2” height and reach advantage, while Weili is two years younger than the 34-year-old Jedrzejczyk.
Weili is the more powerful striker in this matchup, while Jedrzejczyk is more of a volume based striker who’s made a career out of fighting to five-round decisions. So logically, it seems like a shorter three-round fight would favor Weili. With that said, if their first fight had ended after three rounds, Jedrzejczyk would have won a split decision, as two of the three judges gave her two of the first three rounds. Their first fight was so close that there was only one unanimously scored round, which was the third round in favor of Jedrzejczyk on all scorecards. Historically, Jedrzejczyk has had the better striking accuracy (48% vs. 45%) and defense (64% vs. 52%), which has led to her averaging 6.30 SSL/min and 3.08 SSA/min, while Weili has averaged 5.47 SSL/min and 4.13 SS. If this fight ends early, we fully expect it to come from a Weili finish in the first two rounds, but if it goes the distance there’s a good chance we’re looking at a greasy decision that could go either way and very likely ends up split once again. The fact that Jedrzejczyk hasn’t fought in over two years is concerning and we’re picking the more active, powerful, and well rounded fighter in Weili to win this fight. However, if this goes to the score cards, as the odds suggest it will, it could be close to a coin flip as to who gets their hand raised.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +400.
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DFS Implications:
Weili’s last eight fights have alternated between going the distance and ending in the first round and we generally see very bipolar results whenever she steps inside the Octagon. Her combination of striking and volume gives her a decent floor even in decisions, but she’s still never topped 90 DraftKings points in a three-round fight without a finish. Her two scoring explosions have both come from first round finishes, where she put up DraftKings totals of 137 and 121. If the first fight between Weili and Jedrzejczyk had ended after three rounds, Jedrzejczyk would have won a split decision. However, even if the hypothetical three-round decision had gone Weili’s way she would have scored just 73 DraftKings points and 79 points on FanDuel. Much of the field will look at the final DraftKings score of 104 points for Weili in that match and overlook the fact that it came in a five-round fight, while this fight is only scheduled to go three rounds. That should result in inflated ownership here and this looks like a tough matchup for Weili to return value in a decision, as Jedrzejczyk only absorbs an average of 3.08 SS/min and has a legit 81% takedown defense that has ballooned up to 90% in her last five Strawweight fights. In the end, Weili looks like a popular R1 or bust fighter in a fight that has a 65% chance to go the distance according to the odds—what could go wrong? The odds imply she has a 60% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Jedrzejczyk has fought to decisions in nine of her last 10 fights, with the one exception being a 2017 R1 TKO loss to Rose Namajunas, which is the only time Jedrzejczyk has ever been finished. The last time she landed a finish was in 2015 against one-dimensional grappler Jessica Penne. Amazingly, eight of her last nine decisions have been in five-round fights, which obviously inflates her DFS scoring. In her three UFC three-round decision wins, she has averaged just 57 DraftKings points, with consistently low scores of 63, 59, and 50. As a one-dimensional striker who rarely finishes an opponent, she relies on pure striking volume to score well. That’s fine when you have five rounds to work, but now she’ll step into a three-round fight against a powerful and dangerous opponent and we’d be surprised to see these two stand and trade in a phone booth. Look for Jedrzejczyk to stick and move as she tries to land shots and move away before Weili can return fire. Historically, Jedrzejczyk has been very good at that approach as she has the 9th highest striking differential in UFC history at 3.22. It’s certainly concerning that she hasn’t fought in 27 months, and she’ll need to quickly shake off any ring rust if she wants to stay in this fight against a dangerous opponent like Weili. This sets up a better real life fight than it does for DFS and it’s hard to see Jedrzejczyk scoring well without some sort of flukey finish. The odds imply she has a 40% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Valentina Shevchenko
14th UFC Fight (11-2)Extending her winning streak to eight with a R4 TKO win over Lauren Murphy, Shevchenko has yet to face almost any adversity since dropping down to 125 lb in 2018. She’s finished five of her eight Flyweight opponents, with all five finishes coming in the later rounds, including three in round two, one in round three, and the other in round four. The last four of those finishes have all come by KO/TKO. In the three to go the distance, she won decisions with scores of 49-46, 50-45, and 49-46. At this stage in her career, Shevchenko is mentally defeating most of her opponents before they ever step inside the Octagon as her reputation precedes her and everyone is terrified to face her.
In Shevchenko’s last fight, Lauren Murphy looked like they had just locked her in the cage with a grizzly bear. Murphy landed significant striking totals of 3, 1, 5, and 2 in the four rounds the fight lasted before Shevchenko finished her late in round four with elbows and ground and pound on the mat. Shevchenko had somewhat of a patient gameplan herself, finishing ahead 98-11 in significant strikes and 132-19 in total strikes, with much of that coming in the finishing sequence in round four. She also landed three of her four takedown attempts with just over four minutes of control time as she completely controlled the fight from start to finish.
Now 22-3 as a pro, Shevchenko has eight wins by KO, seven by submission, and seven decisions. The only time she’s ever been finished came in a 2010 second round doctor stoppage after Liz Carmouche landed an upkick that split Shevchenko open above her eye. Shevchenko’s other two losses both came in decisions against Amanda Nunes when Shevchenko was still fighting up at 135 lb. The most recent of those was a five-round split-decision for the Bantamweight belt. After fighting almost her entire career at 135 lb, Shevchenko dropped down to 125 lb following the second loss to Nunes. All 13 of Shevchenko’s UFC fights have made it out of the first round, with nine seeing round three, and six going into the championship rounds. Seven of those 13 fights have gone the distance, two have ended in second round submission wins, and four have finished in KO/TKOs (R2x2, R3 & R4). Her first seven UFC fights all ended in decisions (3-2) or submissions (2-0), while four of her last six have ended in KO/TKOs. She appears primarily focused on finishing opponents with strikes at this point in her career, typically through ground and pound.
Overall, Shevchenko offers a dangerous combination of striking and grappling. She seamlessly stitches together combinations of punches and kicks and does a great job of controlling the distance and counter striking. She’s also landed at least one takedown in all of her UFC fights except her last match against Nunes. Since moving down to 125 lb, Shevchenko has landed 28 takedowns on 39 attempts (71.8%) and the only opponent to be able to stop more than one attempt against her was Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Outside of going 5 for 14 on takedowns against Jedrzejczyk, Shevchenko has amazingly landed 23 of her 25 attempts (92%) in her other seven Flyweight fights. Also notable since dropping down to Flyweight, the only opponent to land more than 36 significant strikes against Shevchenko was also Jedrzejczyk and Shevchenko has absorbed just 1.36 SS/min in her last eight fights since moving down a weight class.
Fighting in her 8th straight title fight and 9th of her UFC career (8-1), Shevchenko is on a historic run and is literally running out of warm bodies in the division to fight. That’s probably why she has entertained the idea of moving up to 135 lb to face Nunes for a third time. Because Shevchenko has already defeated the top three contenders in the Flyweight division, now she’ll face the #4 ranked Taila Santos.
Taila Santos
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Coming off her first finish since 2016, Santos has won four straight since suffering her only career loss in a split decision in her UFC debut to a suspect Mara Romero Borella, who went 1-5 in her last six fights with that being her only win. Santos bounced back with decision wins over Molly McCann, Gillian Robertson, and Roxanne Modafferi, followed by a first round submission win in her last fight.
In that recent finish over the highly submittable Joanne Wood, Santos dropped Wood late in the round, and while Wood was able to recover and return to her feet, Santos dropped her again just 30 seconds later. At that point she took her back and quickly worked her way to a rear-naked choke that she completed with 11 seconds left in the round. The striking ended up being pretty close, with Santos leading 30-27 in significant strikes and 36-30 in total strikes. Wood has now lost four of her last five fights with three of those ending in first round submissions.
Now 19-1 as a pro, Santos has 10 wins by KO, three by submission, and six decisions. She’s never been finished and just has the one split-decision loss. After winning a decision in her 2013 pro debut over Josiane Nunes, who’s now 2-0 in the UFC, Santos rattled off 10 straight first round finishes. She then won a decision, followed by two more early wins, before going on DWCS Brazil in 2018 and winning a decision to get her shot in the UFC. Twelve of Santos’ 13 early wins came in round one, with the lone exception ending in round two. Santos spent most of her early career at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb when she went on DWCS, where she has stayed since.
Overall, Santos’ background is in Muay Thai, but she hasn’t been shy about mixing in grappling as she’s landed 12 takedowns so far in the UFC. With that said, she’s still just a BJJ blue belt and only has three submission wins on her record. Santos’ strength of schedule makes this title shot feel rushed, as only one of her four UFC wins came against a fighter who’s currently ranked, which is Joanne Wood, who’s currently the #10 ranked Flyweight.
This will be the first five-round fight of Santos’ career so she’s yet to see a 4th round. That makes it tough to know what her cardio will look like in the championship rounds, but she did fight to five straight three-round decisions prior to her recent first round win.
Fight Prediction:
Santos will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. She’s also six years younger than the 34-year-old Shevchenko.
While Santos has looked impressive in her recent string of wins, she hasn’t been tested by any well rounded fighters to this point in her career and this title shot feels rushed. Two of her five UFC opponents are no longer with the organization, two more are essentially one-dimensional strikers, and the other was a one-dimensional grappler. Santos is well rounded enough to capitalize when she faces a one dimensional opponent, but now she’s being thrust into the hardest matchup on the planet at 125 lb and we don’t think she’s quite ready. She’s still just 28 years old and appears to be improving as a fighter, but Shevchenko is still simply better everywhere. Santos has been able to rely on overpowering her past opponents both on the feet and the mat, but we don’t see that working against Shevchenko. Santos has been able to fend off takedowns from Modafferi, Robertson, and McCann, but they notably have an average takedown accuracy of just 33%. When Santos was taken down in her UFC debut against a questionable Mara romero Borella, she didn’t appear to offer much of anything off her back and we expect Shevchenko to take Santos down without much trouble and win this fight on the mat. Shevchenko hasn’t submitted anybody in four and a half years and we like her to land another mid round ground and pound finish.
Our favorite bet here is “Shevchenko R2, R3, or R4 KO” at +600 (FanDuel).
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DFS Implications:
Shevchenko has scored at least 108 DraftKings points in three straight fights and 107 or more in six of her eight wins since dropping down to Flyweight. The only two times she’s struggled to score well during that stretch were in a poorly timed early third round finish of Katlyn Chookagian in 2020 and a bizarrely low-volume 2019 five-round decision against Liz Carmouche—who happens to be the only person to ever finish Shevchenko (back in 2010 when they first fought). In Shevchenko’s other two most recent five-round decision wins, she put up DraftKings scores of 134 and 111, so she clearly has a legit DraftKings ceiling even without landing a finish. Her last seven finishes have all come in rounds two through four, but her combination of grappling and striking allows her to still put up huge scores even with mid round finishes. With that said, we’ve seen her score anywhere from 86 to 160 DK points in her early wins, so depending on how fights go and when her finishes occur, we’ve seen a very wide range of potential scoring outcomes. Nevertheless, four of her last five finishes have scored 107 or more DraftKings points, so we wouldn’t worry about the one 86 point outlier too much, other than acknowledging that it is at least possible for her to get a finish and still fail to score well. As the most expensive fighter on the slate, it’s also possible that Shevchenko puts up a solid score and still gets left out of winning tournament lineups. That’s exactly what we saw the last time she fought, when she was priced at $9,500 and scored a solid 108 DK points but still didn’t end up in the winning lineup. Just keep in mind, she’s also shown the highest ceiling of any fighter on the slate. Overall, you don’t need us to tell you she’s a great play, but it is possible she either gets priced out of the winning lineup or lands an unfortunately timed finish that fails to put up a huge score. It’s still more likely we see her put up another big number here, and we especially like her on DraftKings where grappling scores better, as we expect her to be looking to get this fight to the ground. She’s been more reliant on landing finishes to score well on FanDuel, so if you do think this goes the distance then it’s a little bit easier to fade her on FanDuel than on DraftKings. We’ve seen Shevchenko’s DK ownership go from 36% to 45% to 49% in her last three outings, on cards similar to this one with 12, 13, and 13 fights respectively. She once again projects to be incredibly popular, which is just something to keep in mind when building tournament lineups. The odds imply she has an 82% chance to win, a 39% chance to get a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Santos is coming off back-to-back massive scoring performances where she put up DraftKings totals of 126 and 114. Her only problem now is she’s facing the best 125 lb fighter on the planet. This will also be the first five-round fight of Santos’ career, so we don’t know what her cardio will look like in the later rounds if this fight makes it that long. While Santos has done a good job of working her way up the rankings and continuing to improve as a fighter, she’s still just 28 years old and this title shot feels rushed. Shevchenko has ravaged the women’s Flyweight division, and it seems like Santos was thrust into this spot by process of elimination, which isn’t overly encouraging for her chances of actually winning. While Santos has looked strong and fairly well-rounded, Shevchenko is simply at a different level then everyone else in the division. It’s hard to see Santos outclassing Shevchenko over the course of five-rounds so if she were to miraculously pull off the upset, it would likely come in a finish. As the cheapest fighter on the slate, it’s really hard to see her getting left out of the winning lineup if that happens, but it’s not entirely impossible if we see a watered down, high scoring slate. The odds imply she has an 18% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Jiri Prochazka
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Getting a title shot in just his third UFC fight, Prochazka joined the UFC in September 2020 on a 10 fight winning streak and as the Rizin Light Heavyweight champ. After violently landing an early second round knockout in his July 2020 UFC debut against Volkan Oezdemir, who came in ranked #7 in the division, Prochazka was immediately propelled into the number five spot in the Light Heavyweight rankings. He was then booked in a May 2021 five-round main event against Dominick Reyes, who was coming off two straight title fight losses.
In that last fight, Prochazka got taken down two minutes into the first round by Reyes, who came into the fight with a 16.7% career takedown accuracy and had only landed one takedown on six attempts in his previous eight UFC fights. Reyes wasn’t able to do anything with the takedown as Jiri was able to explode out after 30 seconds, but it’s important to note how easily Reyes was able to take him down on his only attempt in the fight. However, once returning to his feet Prochazka continued to push the pace on the feet, backing Reyes up against the cage and landing dozens of heavy shots as he finished the first round ahead 45-39 in significant strikes. Prochazka continued to push the pace in round two, but Reyes caught him with a clean left head midway through round two that appeared to wobble Prochazka and forced him to shoot a takedown to buy time to recover. Instead of committing to keeping the fight standing, Reyes went for a guillotine, and while it looked tight initially, Prochazka was able to escape and end up on top in a great position. As Prochazka proceeded to rain down ground and pound, Reyes was able to return to his feet, but Prochazka continued to land heavy shots along the fence and then caught Reyes with a clean spinning elbow that immediately relieved Reyes from consciousness and face planted him to the mat, ending the fight in dramatic fashion.
Now 28-3-1 as a pro, Prochazka has only been to two decisions in 32 pro fights (1-0-1), and only one in his last 18 fights, which was a two round decision in the first stage of the 2016 Rizin Grand Prix. He’s won 12 straight fights dating back to 2015 and has knocked out his last 10 opponents. He has 25 career wins by KO, two by submission (2012 & 2014), and one decision win (2016). In his three losses, he’s been knocked out twice (2012 & 2015), and submitted once back in 2013. All three of his losses have occurred in the first round, while 23 of his 28 wins have also occurred in round one. He also has two third KO wins, while his two UFC victories have both come by round two KO. So he’s only been to the third round three times in his career and 91% of his fights have lasted 10 minutes or less.
Overall, Prochazka has a wild fighting style filled with unusual movements and strikes from odd angles. He keeps his hands, which makes it hard to see where his punches are coming from, but also makes him very hittable. He relies almost entirely on his striking, but we did see him land a takedown in his last fight on the only attempt we’ve seen from him in two UFC fights. He’s tall and long and uses his reach well to strike from distance, and he has to be one of the tougher guys to prepare for when it comes to pure striking. While we haven’t seen him have to defend many takedowns so far in the UFC, he’s been grounded once on the two attempts he has faced and his defensive grappling appears to be an area of weakness. When you combine that with his suspect striking defense, you can see he’s an offensively minded fighter with a kill or get killed mentality, and his record backs that up.
This will be the 2nd five-round fight of Prochazka’s career, with the first being his last fight that ended late in round two. So in addition to only seeing the third round in 3 of his 32 pro fights, he’s never been to the championship rounds. He has spent the last few weeks out in Thailand trying to acclimate to the high temperature and humidity that he will experience in Singapore. Even so, if this fight makes it past the second round, there’s a good chance we could see him begin to slow down.
Glover Teixeira
22nd UFC Fight (16-5)Preparing to make his first title defense at the ripe age of 42, Teixeira is coming off a second round submission win over Jan Blachowicz and has now won six straight going back to 2018. While five of those six wins ended early, he’s now seen the second round in five straight matches, with three of those making it to round three, and one finishing in the championship rounds.
In his recent win over Blachowicz, Teixeira landed a takedown 30 seconds into the first round and controlled Blachowicz on the canvas for the remainder of the round. Both guys landed a couple of decent strikes early in round two, but Teixeira was able to return the fight to the ground midway through the round. It didn’t take him long to work his way to full mount, at which point Blachowicz immediately rolled over and gave up his back. Glover quickly looked to lock up a choke and instead of even trying to fight the hands Blachowicz just immediately tapped. It was a bizarrely quick finish and looked like Blachowicz didn’t even want to be there.
Now 33-7 as a pro, Teixeira has 18 wins by KO, 10 by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out three times and has four decision losses. Fifteen of his 21 UFC fights have ended early (13-2), but he hasn’t been finished since 2017 when he was knocked out in the 5th round by Alexander Gustafsson. The only other time he’s been finished in the UFC came in a 2016 13 second R1 KO against Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. While 6 of Teixeira’s 13 UFC finishes have come in the first round, his last four early wins have all occurred in the later rounds and his more recent R1 finishes have all come against high submittable, fragile, or aging, or opponents in Karl Roberson (2019), Misha Cirkunov (2017), Rashad Evans (2016). Outside of those three first round wins, his other eight most recent victories have all seen round two. Teixeira tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on and saps their will to fight out of them.
Overall, Teixeira has made a career out of surviving early adversity and upsetting the odds. He’s entered his last three fights as an underdog only to prove the bookmakers wrong. A 2nd degree BJJ black belt, he’s most dangerous on the mat either landing ground and pound or fishing for submissions, but he’s still a threat on the feet and throws a nice left hook. He has just a 39% career takedown accuracy, although he’s managed to land 6 takedowns on 13 attempts in his last two fights (46.2%).
This will be the 9th five-round fight of Teixeira’s UFC career (6-2). Prior to joining the UFC, he also landed a first round submission win in a 2011 first five-round fight. Here are the results from Teixeira’s previous eight UFC five-round fights:
2021 R2 Submission Win vs. Jan Blachowicz
2020 R3 Submission Win vs. Thiago Santos
2020 R5 TKO Win vs. Anthony Smith
2017 R5 KO Loss vs. Alexander Gustafsson
2016 R1 KO Win vs. Rashad Evans
2015 R3 Submission Win vs. Ovince St. Preux
2014 R5 Decision Loss vs. Jon Jones
2013 R1 TKO Win vs. Ryan Bader
Both of his losses in five-round fights made it to the 5th round with one going the distance, while all six of his five-round wins have come early. His last three and four of his last five early wins in five-round fights came in the later rounds.
Fight Prediction:
Prochazka will have a 1” height advantage, 4” reach advantage and is 13 years younger than the 42-year-old Teixeira.
This is a classic grappler versus striker matchup and the outcome will likely hinge on where the fight takes place. If Prochazka can keep it standing, he’ll have a massive advantage on the feet and a very good chance to land a knockout in the first two rounds. However, Prochazka has been so hittable that we can’t say with absolute certainty that Teixeira has no chance in a pure striking battle, but it would be very surprising to see Teixeira pull off the upset in that scenario. Teixeira needs to get this fight to the ground and control Prochazka, draining Prochazka’s cardio as he tries to explode back to his feet. After a round or two of top control and calculated offense, we should see Prochazka begin to wilt and Teixeira will be set up to land a finish on the mat either through ground and pound or a submission. While neither of those scenarios would be surprising, we like Teixeira’s chances to get the fight to the ground and slowly wear Prochazka and find a mid-round finish, most likely in rounds two or three.
Our favorite bet here is Teixeira’s ML at +170.
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DFS Implications:
Prochazka is a high-volume striker who pushes the pace and rarely sees a third round, as just three of his 32 pro fights have lasted longer than 10 minutes. Prochazka’s early second round KO win in his UFC debut was unfortunate timing from a DFS scoring perspective, and scored just 93 points. We saw the other side of that coin in his last fight when he landed a late second round knockout and scored 119 DraftKings points. Those numbers do a pretty good job of bookending his potential range of scoring outcomes as his wins almost always end in early knockouts. We expect him to be defending takedowns for much of this match, which lowers his scoring floor and ceiling to some extent and creates the possibility that he could get controlled for all of round one and then land an early second round knockout that fails to really score well. Only two of his 28 career wins have come beyond the second round, both of which ended in third round knockouts, and he’s never seen the championship rounds. So if this fight does somehow last longer than 15 minutes, his late round cardio remains a question mark. At his higher price tag, barring a multi-knockdown performance, Prochazka likely needs a knockout in either the first round or the second half of round two to end up in tournament winning lineups. His fighting style will generally score better on FanDuel than on DraftKings in fights that last longer than 60 seconds. The odds imply Prochazka has a 64% chance to win, a 54% chance to get a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Teixeira has been a DFS gold mine throughout his career, but especially lately as he entered his last three fights as the underdog but still managed to not only come out victorious, but put up DraftKings scores of 108, 120, and 137. He consistently scores well when he wins, and his grappling-heavy style is ideally suited for DraftKings, but he’s a solid play on both sites. At his cheap price tag, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups with a victory here, although we don’t expect the field to completely overlook him here as they did in his last fight when he was just 24% owned on DraftKings against Jan Blachowicz when he won the belt. Teixeira will be in trouble if this fight stays standing, but he’ll have a massive advantage on the ground and has the potential to hit another huge scoring ceiling. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
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