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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #15
Saimon Oliveira
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)A year removed from a decision loss to Tony Gravely in his UFC debut, Oliveira’s last win came in a 2021 split decision on DWCS and the last time he finished anybody was in 2019. In his DWCS fight, Oliveira was aggressive to the point of being wild with his striking at times as he threw a lot of spinning back fists and flying knees. Prior to his recent loss, Oliveira won five straight fights, with four of those ending in first round submissions. He loves looking for guillotines, which is how he’s finished 7 of his 11 career submission victories.
In his last fight, Oliveira gave up 11 takedowns to Tony Gravely, but there were several moments where it looked like Oliveira was moments away from locking up a guillotine and he finished with four official submission attempts. The first of those came in the opening minute, but Gravely was narrowly able to escape. Oliveira continued to look for guillotine opportunities throughout the match, but Gravely did a good job of defending them. He finished with 11:28 in control time while landing 11 of his 15 takedown attempts. He also finished ahead in significant strikes 46-35 and in total strikes 66-50.
Now 18-4 as a pro, Oliveira has five wins by KO/TKO, 11 by submission, and two decision victories. Nine of those 11 career submissions occurred in the first round as his go-to move appears to be locking up guillotines along the fence to end fights in the opening five minutes. His last six early wins all ended in first round submissions and only two of his 16 finishes came after the second round. All four of his losses have gone the distance and he’s never been finished. While his last two fights have been at 135 lb, his third most recent fight was up at 148 lb and he competed all the way up at 165 lb in 2018.
Overall, Oliveira is an aggressive fighter who combines Muay Thai style striking with aggressive grappling. He doesn’t offer much off his back however, and is primarily a guillotine specialist. While he does look to push the pace, we weren’t overly impressed by anything Oliveira showed on tape as he telegraphs takedowns and throws wild strikes. He’s only fought twice in the last three years, so he hasn’t been very active, but now he’ll get to fight in front of his home crowd.
Daniel Marcos
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a decision win on DWCS, Marcos has only fought once in the last three years, with his second most recent fight coming all the way back in December 2019. That matchup looked like it took place in a prison cafeteria as Marcos has spent his entire career fighting on the Peruvian regional scene.
In his last fight, Marcos took on Brandon Lewis, who has now lost two decisions on DWCS. Marcos landed a big kick up the middle that wobbled Lewis a minute into the fight, although Lewis was quickly able to recover. Late in the first round, Marcos landed a leg kick that appeared to hit Lewis’ peroneal nerve as it immediately shut off Lewis’ lower leg. However, Lewis was still able to survive the final 30 seconds of the round. Marcos continued to destroy the leg of Lewis and looked close to landing a leg kick TKO at multiple points, but Lewis again was narrowly able to survive. Lewis tried to mix in some grappling to mask his leg injury, but was only able to land 2 of his 13 attempts. Marcos looked to be tiring late in the match and never attempted a takedown in the fight, but finished ahead 81-45 in significant strikes and 86-50 in total strikes as he cruised to a unanimous 20-27 decision win.
Now 13-0 as a pro, Marcos has seven wins by KO/TKO and six decision victories. All seven of his finishes occurred in the first two rounds, with three ending in round one and four in round two. His last six fights have all made it out of the first round, with three of those going the distance.
Overall, Marcos looks like a decent striker but has still never faced any real competition in his career. That leaves a lot of uncertainty surrounding him. However, he did leave Peru to begin training in the US prior to his last fight. With so little recent tape on him, Marcos largely remains a mystery, but hasn’t shown much in terms of offensive grappling and appears to be a pure striker.
Fight Prediction:
Marcos will have a 3” height advantage, but Oliveira will have a 3” reach advantage.
It’s hard to have much confidence in either one of these two fighters and neither has been very active over the last three years. Oliveira is a wild striker who loves looking for guillotines, but we haven’t seen Marcos shoot for any takedowns lately, so there may be less opportunities for Oliveira to try and lock up a guillotine. Neither guy has been especially impressive, but their two styles could make for a somewhat entertaining fight. Oliveira will have the grappling advantage, but we expect things to be close on the feet. If this plays out as a striking battle, we could see either guy get their hand raised in a decision. Neither one of them has ever been finished, making it more likely that this goes the distance unless Oliveira can lock up a guillotine, which is always possible. We’ll give the slight edge to Oliveira based on his grappling and the fact that he already has one UFC fight under his belt, but he’s certainly not a guy we trust. Nevertheless, we’ll take Oliveira either by submission in the first two rounds or more likely in a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
Oliveira looks like a submission or bust DFS play, but 16 of his 18 pro wins have notably come early. He only scored 17 DraftKings points in his recent decision loss in his debut, and his decision win on DWCS only would have been good for 79 DraftKings points and 66 points on FanDuel. That’s not very encouraging for his chances of scoring well in a decision win here, but just before those two decisions he landed four straight first round submissions. That shows some scoring potential, but keep in mind he loves looking for guillotine chokes, which aren’t ideal from a DFS scoring perspective as they often don’t come with a takedown. Even if he does find an early finish, we could see him being left out of tournament winning lineups. Working in his favor, he’s facing a UFC newcomer who has only competed once in the last three years and has never faced any real competition. That’s enough to keep Oliveira in the tournament discussion, especially when you factor in his low ownership. However, we’re not overly excited about clicking his name. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Marcos is somewhat of a wildcard as he’s only fought once since 2019 and has spent his entire career fighting on the smaller Peru regional scene. He showed decent striking in his DWCS decision win, and throws good leg strikes and kicks up the middle. However, he did appear to be tiring late in the fight and didn’t show any grappling. That decision win would have been good for just 79 DraftKings points and 81 points on FanDuel as Marcos appears reliant on landing a knockout to score well. Working against him, Oliveira has never been finished, which has us lower on Marcos. The odds imply Marcos has a 43% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #14
Josiane Nunes
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)This fight had originally been scheduled back in April 2021 for Nunes’ UFC debut, but Fairn missed weight by 11 lb and the fight was canceled. Nunes was then forced to wait four months before taking on Bea Malecki at 135 lb. Nunes knocked out the much taller Malecki late in the first round of that fight and Malecki was never able to capitalize on her 7” height advantage. Nunes then had two more opponents withdraw before she took on Ramona Pascual in her last match and nearly landed another knockout, but ultimately won a decision instead. Nunes has won eight straight fights and had landed six straight knockouts in the first two rounds prior to her recent decision victory.
In her last fight, Nunes dropped Pascual in the first round but Pascual quickly recovered and landed a takedown late in the round, although she wasn’t able to get much done on the mat. Nunes was able to knock her down again early in round two and looked close to getting a finish. However, Pascual was able to recover once again and landed another takedown with two minutes left in the round—although she once again did absolutely nothing with the position as she just laid on top of Nunes. Round three stayed largely on the feet until Pascual was once again able to land a late takedown with 14 seconds remaining in the fight, and once again did nothing with it. Nunes finished ahead in significant strikes 98-52 and in total strikes 119-71 with two knockdowns landed. Pascual was only able to land 3 of her 10 takedown attempts with a little under four minutes of control time. Nunes easily won a unanimous decision, winning every round on all three judges’ score cards, including a 10-8 round on one score card.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Nunes has seven wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories.Three of her finishes ended in round one, with four coming in round two. Her only career loss came in her second pro fight, in a 2013 decision against the incredibly durable Taila Santos, who recently competed for the belt. However, outside of facing Santos early in her career, Nunes went up against a lot of suspect competition prior to joining the UFC, so we should take some of her earlier results with a grain of salt. Despite being just 5’2”, Nunes has fought as high as 154 lb in the past. She made her debut at 135 lb, but then moved up to 145 lb for her last fight, where this next one will also be.
Overall, Nunes is a pure striker who doesn't offer much of anything when it comes to grappling. Her best submission defense is the fact that she doesn’t have a neck to choke. Her takedown defense looked unimpressive on the regional scene, but no takedowns were attempted in her UFC debut. She was then taken down three times on 10 Ramona Pascual attempts. She puts up huge striking numbers, leading the slate at 7.54 SSL/min.
Zarah Fairn
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Fairn has dropped out of three straight fights due to botched weight cuts and is always someone to be concerned about on the scale. Prior to her string of withdrawals, Fairn was finished in the first round in each of her two UFC fights. The first of those came against Megan Anderson in 2019, who submitted Fairn with just over a minute to go in round one. Next, Felicia Spencer finished Fairn with ground and pound, also late in round one.
In her last fight, Fairn started off okay on the feet, before getting tied up on the cage. Spencer was able to get the fight to the mat shortly thereafter, once again showing Fairn’s weakness in her takedown defense and grappling. Spencer laid it on thick with ground and pound, forcing the ref to stop the fight. The match ended Spencer ahead 40-13 in significant strikes and 68-14 in total strikes, while she landed one of her two takedown attempts with 2:21 in control time.
Now 6-4 as a pro, Fairn has four wins by TKO, with all of those ending in the first round. Her other two wins both ended in decisions. She’s been submitted once and has one TKO loss, with both of those also ending in round one, and has also lost two decisions. She’s fought anywhere from 135 lb to 152 lb in her career, but both of her UFC fights were at 145 lb.
Overall, Fairn is a tall one-dimensional striker who has looked helpless on the mat. It’s been almost two years since she last competed and she’s now 39 years old and barely hanging onto her job. She really struggles to make weight, which has the potential to impact her chin. Considering both of her UFC fights ended with her being finished on the mat in the first round, it’s hard to even evaluate how she stacks up on the feet from those matches. You can look at her earlier career tape, but keep in mind she was facing a lower level of competition back then and also spent time down at 135 lb. That leaves her current striking game as somewhat of a mystery, but outside of her pure size, she’s never been very impressive.
Fight Prediction:
Fairn will have a huge 6” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, but Nunes is 10 years younger than the 39-year-old Fairn.
Fairn’s terrible ground game was exposed in each of her first two UFC fights, but similar to Fairn, Nunes is a pure striker who’s less likely to capitalize on Fairn’s biggest weakness. However, it would be hard to watch Fairn’s tape and not build in some takedown attempts into your game plan, even if she does her best work on her feet. While the size difference in this matchup is comedic, Nunes has been the much more impressive fighter and we expect she’ll find ways to overcome Fairn’s reach, likely by lunging in with superman punches and then going to work once she finds her range. Nunes is built like a fire hydrant and we like her chances of knocking Fairn out in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Nunes KO” at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Nunes’ high-volume brawling fighting style lends itself well towards DFS production, but she doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling. That leaves her reliant on landing a finish at her expensive price tag, as even a high-volume decision win likely wouldn’t score quite enough to return value. All seven of Nunes’ finishes have come in the first two rounds and she has only required the judges once in her last seven fights. She put up a slate-breaking 121 point DraftKings score in a R1 KO win in her UFC debut and then followed it up with a 95 point score in her recent decision win. So she has shown a solid floor even when she’s unable to land a knockout, although keep in mind that decision score was propped up by a pair of knockdowns. Nunes will have to overcome her massive size disadvantage in this matchup, which adds some uncertainty to the mix, but her low projected ownership has us excited to play her in tournaments as she squares off against a 39-year-old opponent who’s been finished in the first round in both her UFC fights and hasn’t competed in nearly two years. The odds imply Nunes has an 81% chance to win, a 56% chance to land a finish, and a 28% chance it comes in round one.
Fairn has yet to show she belongs in the UFC as she was finished in the first round on the mat in both of her UFC fights and has now dropped out of her last three scheduled matches due to weight cutting issues. In fairness to her, she hasn’t actually had a chance to show off her striking abilities much because she was quickly taken down in both of her UFC fights. That does add some uncertainty and potential upside for her and Nunes loves to throw down in a brawl. So if Fairn can exceed expectations and hold her own against her much smaller opponent, she has the potential to either land a knockout or at her cheap price tag serve as a value play in a high-volume decision win. Her ultra-low ownership adds to her tournament appeal, and while we’re expecting her to get knocked out, it makes sense to have some exposure here. The odds imply she has a 19% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #13
Warlley Alves
14th UFC Fight (8-5)Looking to bounce back from a R2 KO loss against a debuting Jeremiah Wells, Alves continues to trade wins and losses over his last six fights. It’s been 19 months since he last competed after he withdrew from a scheduled fight against Jack Della Maddalena in January 2022. Prior to his loss against Wells, Alves finished Mounir Lazzez with a first round TKO in January 2021.
In Alves last fight, Wells shot out of the gates like a bat out of hell, looking dangerous from the start as he capitalized on an early slip from Alves and immediately took top position. While Alves was able to slow down the pace to close the first round while attempting a late guillotine choke, Wells started fast again in the second round as he clipped Alves on the feet and quickly turned the lights out with ground and pound. Wells finished ahead 21-15 in significant strikes and 29-15 in total strikes, but failed to land any of his three takedown attempts, while Alves also failed on his only attempt.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Alves has four wins by KO/TKO, six by submission, and four decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has two decision losses. While Alves’ last six fights have all ended early, only one of those was stopped in round one, with four ending in round two, and one in round three. His last three losses have all come in the second round.
Overall, Alves is a BJJ black belt and a pretty well rounded fighter who comes out hot but fades down the stretch. He notably has a first round guillotine win over Colby Covington on his record, which is one of the moves Alves is known for and how he finished three of his first four UFC opponents. He only averages 3.07 SSL/min and 3.63 SSA/min, while tacking on 1.4 TDL/15 min. The only time he’s ever landed more than two takedowns in a UFC fight was when he landed three in a 2019 submission loss to Randy Brown. Alves will be fighting in front of his home Rio crowd in this next fight, so it will be interesting to see how he handles that pressure.
Nicolas Dalby
10th UFC Fight (4-3-1, NC)Coming off a close decision win over Claudio Silva, Dalby has now gone the distance in three straight fights (2-1). Prior to his recent win, he lost a decision to Tim Means, after winning a close/questionable decision over Daniel Rodriguez. Dalby was finished in the first round of a 2020 match against Jesse Ronson, but the results were later overturned to a No Contest when Ronson failed a drug test. After starting 13-0 as a pro, Dalby originally joined the UFC back in 2015 and won a decision in his debut. However, after going 1-2-1 with four decisions in his first four UFC fights, Dalby was released by the organization. The UFC then re-signed him in late 2019 and Dalby won his first fight back in a low-volume decision over Alex Oliveira leading up to his fight against Ronson.
In his last fight, Dalby got taken down early in round one and controlled for the entire round. He then got taken down again in round two but was eventually able to reverse the position and take over the fight from that point on against an exhausted Claudio Silva. Even against a completely gassed opponent, Dalby was still unable to find a finish, but went on to win a close decision. The fight ended with Dalby ahead 45-11 in significant strikes and 61-46 in total strikes, while he also landed his lone takedown attempt with over four minutes of control time. Silva was able to take Dalby down four times on 12 attempts with over seven minutes of control time.
Now 20-4-1 as a pro, Dalby has six wins by KO, four by submission, and 10 decisions. He’s never technically been finished, with all four of his official losses going the distance, although in reality he was submitted in the first round by Jesse Ronson in 2020 before the results were overturned to a No Contest when Ronson failed a drug test. While 10 of Dalby’s 20 career wins have come early, all of those finishes occurred outside of the UFC. Of those 10 finishes, he has only three career R1 wins, with the last one occurring in 2013. In his last 16 fights, 15 have made it out of the first round, with the one exception being the Ronson No Contest—if that even counts. Fourteen of the 16 have made it to the third round, with 10 going the distance. Not counting the No Contest, all eight of his UFC fights have ended with the judges.
Overall, Dalby is a karate style fighter who has not shown the ability to finish opponents at the UFC level, with all four of his UFC wins ending in decisions. He’s a green belt in Ashihara karate and a BJJ brown belt. He only averages 3.22 SSL/min and 3.22 SSA/min and he’s only landed more than 57 significant strikes in a fight once (84) and has also only absorbed more than 57 once (83). After landing eight combined takedowns in his first two UFC matches, he’s only landed a total of two takedowns in his last seven fights with the organization. He has a 65% takedown defense, having been taken down 12 times on 35 attempts in his nine UFC fights. However, we’ve seen him struggle with being controlled on the mat, which will be a concern anytime he faces a grappler.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’11” but Dalby will have a 2” reach advantage. Alves is six years younger than the 38-year-old Dalby.
Dalby opened as the favorite, but the line has steadily moved in Alves’ favor. It certainly feels like Alves should win this fight based on his more well-rounded skill set and ability to finish opponents. However, Dalby has never been officially finished and has a knack for making fights ugly and squeaking out close decision victories. Alves only has one win in the last three and a half years and hasn’t competed since June 2021, and that lack of activity is concerning. Alves has also lost two of the last three decisions he’s been to, leaving him more reliant on finding finishes. Working in Alves’ favor, we’ve seen Dalby struggle with getting taken down and controlled, which makes it hard to have much confidence in him here. However, if he can avoid getting finished or taken down and controlled for multiple rounds, we could see him outlast Alves over the course of a 15 minute fight and squeak out another close decision win. We’ll take the dog money on Dalby to win by decision, but it’s not the most confident pick by any means.
Our favorite bet here is “Dalby DEC” at +300.
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DFS Implications:
Five of Alves’ last six wins have come early, so naturally he’s scored somewhat decently, but he’s actually only topped 96 DraftKings points in one of those wins and notably scored terribly in his lone decision victory over that stretch. He’s averaged 87 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins, but the only time he’s ever really scored well was in his first round TKO victory over Mounir Lazzez where he scored 116 DraftKings points. That’s also Alves’ only fight in his last nine to end in the first round, so while Alves typically doesn’t require the judges, most of his fights have made it out of the first round. At his relatively cheaper price tag, perhaps a late round finish would still be enough for him to crack winning lineups, but on a slate this large with so many potentially high scoring fighters, that could be tougher. Also working against Alves, Dalby has been a tough guy to put away, with just one early loss in his career, which was later overturned to a No Contest when his opponent tested positive for PEDs. It’s certainly not impossible that Alves comes out hot and finds a first round finish, but we’re not overly confident in him. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Dalby has yet to put up a usable DFS score in nine UFC appearances and the closest he came was when he scored 86 DraftKings points in a decision win in his 2015 UFC debut. His last three decision wins were good for just 69, 54, and 69 DraftKings points and even at his cheaper price tag we don’t have much interest in playing him. He’s never finished anybody at the UFC level and is now 38 years old. He also averages just 3.22 SSL/min and has only landed one takedown in his last four fights. He looks dependent on landing his first UFC finish here to score well, and he wasn’t even able to put away a gassed Claudi Silva in his last fight. So while Alves similarly has some cardio concerns, we’re still not convinced that Dalby will be able to finish him. The odds imply Dalby has a 47% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Terrance McKinney
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off yet another first round finish, McKinney submitted Erick Gonzalez in just 137 seconds the last time we saw him. Prior to that, McKinney took on Drew Dober and after nearly finding another quick finish McKinney gassed out midway through the first round and lost via R1 TKO. That came just two weeks after McKinney submitted Fares Ziam in late February 2022, so at least McKinney has the excuse that he took the fight on short notice. All of his fights have been electric. McKinney landed a seven second first round knockout against Matt Frevola in his June 2021 UFC debut. McKinney originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2019, nearly submitting Sean Woodson as he controlled his back for most of the fight until Woodson was able to escape and land a flying knee KO early in round two.
In his last fight, the two traded on the feet before McKinney effortlessly took Gonzalez 90 seconds into the fight. Gonzalez gave up his back in an effort to return to his feet and McKinney immediately locked up a rear-naked choke to secure the win. It felt more like a demonstration by Gonzalez on how to get submitted rather than an actual fight and it’s hard to take much away from it. The match ended with McKinney ahead 18-9 in significant strikes and 23-10 in total strikes.
Now 13-4 as a pro, McKinney has still never been to the judges. He has five wins by KO and eight by submission. He’s also been knocked out three times and has one submission loss. He’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 11 minutes and 15 of his 17 fights have ended in round one (12-3). Amazingly, seven of those first round finishes ended in the opening minute (5-2), and his last nine and 12 of his 13 career wins have come in under three minutes. One of his four career losses results from a leg injury, while the other three were all against fighters currently in the UFC, in Sean Woodson, Darrick Minner, and Drew Dober. McKinney turned pro in 2017 and started off at 145 lb before moving up to 155 lb. He went back and forth between the two weight classes early in his career and even fought as high as 170 lb once, but it appears he’s settled in at 155 lb. Notably, three of his four career losses came down at 145 lb.
Overall, McKinney is an explosive striker with dynamite in his hands. He’s also a former college wrestler. He can compete both on the feet and the mat and is dangerous anywhere fights go—as long as it’s not past the three minute mark. The glaring concern with him is his cardio, as he sells out for finishes early on in fights and we saw him gas out after three minutes in his match against Dober. In a recent interview, McKinney said he’s looking for a quick knockout in this next fight, but will take the submission if it’s there.
Ismael Bonfim
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut alongside his brother Gabriel following a decision win on DWCS, Bonfim has won 12 straight fights since getting submitted by UFC fighter Renato Moicano in the first round of a 2014 match. His last three wins have all gone the distance, after his three before that all ended in the first round.
In his last fight Bonfim started fast, outlanding his opponent, Nariman Abbasov, 40-14 in significant strikes in the first round, while also notching a knockdown. While Bonfim landed a ton of big shots in the round and looked like he might be able to find a finish, his pace slowed down as the fight went on and he only landed 25 significant strikes in round two and 20 in round three. Regardless, Bonfim controlled the fight and cruised to a unanimous decision win, additionally landing one of his three takedown attempts.
Now 18-3 as a pro, Bonfim has eight wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and six decision wins. He’s been submitted in the first round in all three of his losses, but two of those occurred in his first three pro fights back in 2011 when he was just 15 years old. The other was against Renato Moicano.
Overall, Bonfim is a solid striker and also a BJJ black belt. We have seen his output wane some later on in fights, and the majority of his finishes have come early in fights, with his last six fights all ending in either decision wins or first round finishes. He’ll occasionally mix in takedowns, but largely relies on his boxing. He’s not the tallest guy at just 5’8” which will be one obstacle he’ll need to overcome at the UFC level as he goes up against taller and longer opponents. Both he and his brother Gabriel look like interesting prospects, but Gabriel appears to be the more talented of the two.
Fight Prediction:
McKinney will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
Look for fireworks right out of the gate in this one. McKinney is allergic to the second round and Bonfim’s last eight finishes have all come in the first two rounds. The key to this fight will be how Bonfim handles the early assault from McKinney. Few fighters have shown the ability to survive three minutes of the Terrance McKinney experience, so it’s hard to trust a debuting fighter to do so. However, Bonfim is a dangerous striker who’s never been knocked out and also a BJJ black belt. So at least on paper, he appears equipped to have a chance to do so. If he can simply not die during the few opening minutes, he should be looking at a cardiovascularly compromised opponent across the cage from him, if history is any indicator. McKinney is also so recklessly aggressive that he could get clipped coming in earlier in the fight. Either way we’d be surprised if this fight makes it out of the first round and both guys are live for a finish. With that said, we’re taking McKinney to win in the first round, most likely by knockout in the opening three minutes.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in R1” at -150.
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DFS Implications:
McKinney has averaged 110 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, all of which came in the first round. He hasn’t seen round two in any of his last eight fights and looks for quick finishes every time he steps inside the Octagon. He’s the most likely fighter on the UFC roster to land the DraftKings Quick Win Bonus in any given fight and the field is fully aware. In his last three fights, beginning with the most recent, we’ve seen his DraftKings ownership come in at 49%, 42%, and 56%. He once again projects to be very popular on this slate, which makes it harder to create unique lineups that include him. The size of this slate will certainly help in that regard, but fading him is a clear leverage point. With that said, his combination of striking and wrestling make him a tough guy to prepare for and allows him to score well in multiple ways. However, neither of his submission wins in the UFC have put up slate-breaking scores (97 & 105), so there’s always the potential for him to land a first round submission and still get outscored when it comes to cracking the winning tournament lineup. That’s a thin line at his affordable price tag. We’ve also seen him fade out after his initial burst, as he’s a finish or get finished type of fighter. Getting this spot right will be critical in tournaments, making it tougher to take a hard stand. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Bonfim is being thrown right into the fire for his UFC debut and it will be interesting to see how he handles the early pressure of McKinney. There’s no doubt that Bonfim is significantly more talented than McKinney’s last opponent, but it remains to be seen if that will be enough to survive. Working in Bonfim’s favor, he’s a well rounded fighter with solid boxing and a BJJ black belt. He’s also never been knocked out. However, he’s also never faced Terrance McKinney. Predicting the outcome here is like trying to guess what direction candy will fly out of a pinata, so you’ll want exposure to both sides, as it would be surprising if this fight made it out of the first round and the winner should score well. The odds imply Bonfim has a 47% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Cody Stamann
12th UFC Fight (6-4-1)Stamann recently snapped a three fight losing streak with a 59 second round one TKO win over an already deceased Eddie Wineland. Prior to that, Stamann suffered just the second early loss of his career in a 47 second R1 submission defeat at the hands of Said Nurmagomedov. That came after Stamann lost a pair of decisions to Merab Dvalishvili and Jimmie Rivera. His only other UFC loss came against Aljamain Sterling and Stamann has faced a ton of tough competition. Eight of his 11 UFC fights have gone the distance, and he’s coming off his first early win with the organization.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it. Stamann sat Wineland down 30 seconds in and then teed off on him until the ref finally stopped the fight just 59 seconds in. The quick fight ended with Stamann ahead 27-3 in significant strikes and 32-3 in total strikes.
Now 20-5-1 as a pro, Stamann has seven wins by KO/TKO, two by submission, and 11 decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted twice and has three decision losses. He also fought Song Yadong to a draw, although Stamann arguably won the fight. Eight of Stamann’s nine early wins came prior to joining the UFC and the other was against a corpse. Stamann has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb and it’s no easy weight cut for him to get down to 135 lb. He’s gone 2-1 at 145 lb in the UFC and has actually looked better there, while he’s just 4-3-1 at 135 lb in the UFC.
Overall, Stamann is a former D-II college wrestler who’s only struggled against top level guys. He’s just a BJJ blue belt and hasn’t submitted anybody since 2016, but he is a solid wrestler. He’s stocky with short arms and outside of his recent TKO win over the corpse of Eddie Wineland hasn’t looked like any sort of knockout threat.
Luan Lacerda
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on a 10 fight winning streak with six straight submission wins, Lacerda will be fighting in front of his home Brazilian crowd as he takes on a really tough UFC veteran in Cody Stamann.
In his last fight, we saw a slow start before Lacerda finally dove for a leg late in the first round but was unable to hang on and the fight returned to the feet. After an uneventful first round, Lacerda was able to drag his opponent to the mat in the opening minute of round two. After a brief scramble, Lacerda was able to take his opponent’s back and effortlessly lock up a rear-naked choke to secure the win less than 90 seconds into round two.
Now 12-1 as a pro, Lacerda has 10 submission victories and two decision wins. Only one of those submissions ended in round one, while seven came in round two and two in round three. His only career loss was also by submission, in the first round of a 2014 match.
Overall, the 30-year-old BJJ black belt Lacerda is a jiu-jitsu specialist who has spent time training with Jose Aldo. He hasn’t shown great striking or wrestling, but he’ll relentlessly hunt for submissions from all positions and is very dangerous on the mat.
Fight Prediction:
Lacerda will have a 1” height advantage and 9” reach advantage.
Despite wrestling being his strong suit, in a recent interview, Stamann said he has no plans to look for takedowns in this match as he knows how dangerous Lacerda is on the mat. He made it clear he’s looking for another knockout on the feet, although hopefully someone told him he doesn’t get to face Eddie Wineland again. Stamann has been prone to getting submitted at times, but only against guys at the top of the division, so it would be surprising if he succumbed to that fate here. That’s not to say it’s impossible, as Lacerda looks really slick on the mat, but Stamann is a much better wrestler and has a solid 75% takedown defense. So unless Lacera is able to roll into a leg lock, we expect Stamann will be able to keep the fight standing. Despite Stamann’s claims that he’s going to knock Lacerda out in the first two rounds, it’s far more likely he wins a decision here, and that’s how we’re expecting this fight to end. However, Stamann’s decision prop is pretty terrible, so if you want to bet anything on this fight we’d rather take a flyer on Lacerda’s submission line.
Our favorite bet here is “Lacerda SUB” at +600.
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DFS Implications:
Stamann is coming off a career performance where he knocked out the corpse of Eddie Wineland in just 59 seconds. With the help of the quick win bonus, that was good for a massive 137 DraftKings points. Prior to that, Stamann failed to score more than 84 DraftKings points in any of his previous nine fights, and his only other usable DFS performance came in a wrestling-heavy decision win in his 2017 UFC debut against a terrible Terrion Ware. Stamann landed eight takedowns and nearly seven minutes of control time to go with 124 total strikes and 94 significant strikes as he put up 126 DraftKings points in the victory. Outside of his recent TKO win over Wineland, Stamann has never finished an opponent in the UFC and relies on his wrestling to score well. With that in mind, he said in a recent interview that he has no plans to wrestle in this matchup, as he knows how dangerous Lacerda is on the mat. If he lives up to his word, then he’ll be reliant on landing a knockout to score well in this fight, and Lacerda has never been knocked out. That makes it tough to have much confidence in Stamann here and his recent scoring explosion could bump his ownership up a tick from the low spot it would otherwise be. The odds imply he has a 76% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Lacerda will be making his UFC debut in front of his home crowd but appears to be a submission or bust play and checks in as a massive underdog against a longtime UFC veteran in Stamann. He doesn’t throw much striking volume and will be going against a far superior wrestler, which will make it tough for Lacerda to get the fight to the ground so that he can look for a submission. Perhaps he can roll into a leg lock or take Stamann’s back on the feet, but the odds of that happening are low and we’ll likely be more excited about playing Lacerda the next time he fights. The odds imply he has a 24% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Jailton Almeida
4th UFC Fight (3-0)This is the third time this matchup has been booked, only to see Abdurakhimov drop out each of the previous two, and we’ll believe it’s actually happening when they lock the cage.
Entering this match on a 12 fight winning streak with none of those victories even reaching the seven minute mark, Almeida has finished all three of his UFC opponents in the first round. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a second round submission win on DWCS in September 2021 against a 9-0 Sambo fighter. He then landed a R1 TKO win in his debut against a grappler in Danilo Marques, before moving up from Light Heavyweight to Heavyweight and landing a first round submission against Parker Porter. Almeida then planned on facing Abdurakhimov at Heavyweight, but Abdurakhimov dropped out and a 220 lb Catchweight match against UFC newcomer Anton Turkalj was put together instead on short notice. Almeida again made short work of his opponent as he cruised to another first round submission win.
In his last fight, Almeida did what he always does and quickly took Turkalj down and controlled him for the rest of the fight as he patiently worked to a rear-naked choke finish late in the first round. Turkalj briefly tried to stand back up but Almeida slammed him back to the mat twice and it was really just rinse and repeat for Almeida who has yet to face any sort of adversity in the UFC. The fight ended with Almeida ahead 17-1 in significant strikes and 23-19 in total strikes, while landing all three of his takedown attempts with 4:14 in control time.
Now 17-2 as a pro, Almeida has six wins by KO and 11 submission victories. His only early loss came in a 2017 16 second R1 KO, while he also lost the only decision he’s ever been to (2018). All 17 of Almeida’s wins have come in under seven minutes, with 13 ending in round one and the other four finishing in the opening two minutes of round two.
Overall, Almeida seems to come into every fight with the same game plan of quickly getting things to the mat as quickly and as violently as possible and then aggressively hunting for finishes. Five of his last six wins have come by submission and 10 of his last 12 victories have ended in round one. He’s a BJJ black belt and an absolute powerhouse, which definitely makes you wonder about his cardio, although it’s almost never tested. Almeida has competed anywhere from Middleweight to Heavyweight in the past, but most of his career has been spent at Light Heavyweight.
Shamil Abdurakhimov
11th UFC Fight (5-5)Skidding towards the end of his career, the 41-year-old Abdurakhimov has been knocked out in the first two rounds in three straight fights and it’s unclear why he hasn’t already retired. His most recent defeat came in the first round against Sergei Pavlovich, after he was knocked out in the second round by both Chris Daukaus and Curtis Blaydes. Abdurakhimov hasn’t won a match since 2019.
In Abdurakhimov’s last fight, we saw a slow start before Pavlovich finally found the mark with just over a minute remaining in the first round as he dropped Abdurakhimov with a big right hand and then finished the fight with ground and pound. The match ended with Pavlovich ahead 21-17 in striking.
Now 20-7 as a pro, Abdurakhimov has nine wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and seven decision victories. He’s been knocked out five times, submitted once, and has one decision loss.
Overall, Abdurakhimov is from Dagestan so you know he can at least wrestle a little, but he’s well past his prime. He actually started off as a freestyle wrestler and is a Master of Sport in Wysha Sana and an International Master of Sports in Kickboxing. Still, he’s only landed seven takedowns on 30 attempts (23.3% accuracy) in 10 UFC fights and none in his last four matches. Four of his seven takedowns came in a 2016 R4 KO loss to Derrick Lewis and he’s only landed two in his six fights since. We also saw him get dominated on the mat against Blaydes, so he doesn’t offer much off his back.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Almeida will have a 3” reach advantage and is 10 years younger than the 41-year-old Abdurakhimov.
This feels more like an execution than a fight and despite Abdurakhimov having some wrestling experience, he’s never faced anyone like Almeida. It’s not even fair for these lumbering Heavyweights that they have to face an explosive monster like Almeida, and until someone puts up even a tiny bit of resistance, we’re not going to waste too much time explaining how Almeida will do what he always does and land an immediate takedown before working his way to a submission win in the first round. There’s always a chance he’ll finish a fight by ground and pound opposed to submission, but he appears pretty focused on choking everyone out. Almeida by R1 submission is the play.
Our favorite bet here is “Almeida R1 SUB” at +115.
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DFS Implications:
Almeida has finished 12 straight opponents and all 17 of his career wins have come in under seven minutes. He’s been breaking one DFS slate after the next, with DraftKings scores of 121, 114, and 118 in his three UFC fights, finishing everyone he faces in the first round. He’s shown the explosiveness and power to compete at both Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight, and now he’ll take on a washed up 41-year-old fighter who’s been finished in three straight fights. DraftKings at least raised Almeida’s price for this fight, creating the potential for him to get priced out of the winning lineup if we either have a really high overall scoring slate or if Almeida scores less than we’re accustomed too. Nevertheless, he has both a massive scoring floor and ceiling and will be incredibly popular because of that. The odds imply he has an 87% chance to win, a 77% chance to land a finish, and a 52% chance it comes in round one.
Abdurakhimov is a low-volume striker who averages just 2.60 SSL/min and only occasionally mixes in grappling. He appears reliant on landing a finish to score well in DFS, and three of his five UFC wins have gone the distance, where he averaged just 61 points. He’s facing a ridiculously tough opponent and no one on the planet is picking Abdurakhimov to win. He’ll need to perfectly execute the Homer Simpson technique to pull off the stunning upset, as he waits for Almeida to gas himself out from beating on Abdurakhimov. Outside of a complete Almeida collapse, we don’t see any way that Abdurakhimov wins this fight. The odds imply he has a 13% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Gabriel Bonfim
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a first round submission win on DWCS, Bonfim has finished all 13 of his pro opponents. He’s only even been to the third round twice in his career, and one of those times was in the LFA Welterweight Grand Prix where rounds were only three minutes long. Only once in his career has he been in a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes. He’s been making his MMA journey alongside his older brother, Ismael Bonfim, who will be debuting on this UFC card as well. The two also both fought the same night on DWCS to secure their roster spots in the UFC. Just before going on DWCS, Bonfim won the LFA Welterweight belt in a 79 second submission victory.
In his last fight, Bonfim took on a massive 6’5” Welterweight in Trey Waters on DWCS. Despite being the shorter fighter, Bonfim did a good job of finding his striking range as the two traded for the first few minutes until Bonfim landed his first takedown attempt. Waters looked to defend it with a guillotine attempt, but Bonfim quickly maneuvered out of his guard to side control and calmly set up a Von Flue Choke that Waters quickly tapped to. The fight ended with Bonfim ahead 26-20 in striking, while he landed the only takedown attempted in the match.
Now 13-0 as a pro, Bonfim has three wins by KO/TKO and 10 by submission. He has six first round finishes, five in round two, and two in round three. While he currently fights at 170 lb, Bonfim turned pro in 2014 at 135 lb when he was just 17 years old before moving up to 155 lb later that year. He then moved up to 170 lb in 2019, where he’s since remained.
Overall, the Brazilian Bonfim is a well rounded fighter who started boxing when he was 14 before he started training in MMA a few years later. In addition to working with his brother, Bonfim is a training partner of Vicente Luque. Bonfim has very crisp striking and fast hands as he seamlessly stitches combinations together. Despite the majority of his wins coming by submission, he started out striking before adding jiu-jitsu to his game. That makes him a very dangerous fighter to deal with, making him a threat to finish fights both on the feet and the mat.
Mounir Lazzez
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Struggling to remain active, Lazzez has only fought once in the last two years after getting finished by Warlley Alves in the first round of a January 2021 match. The only time we’ve seen Lazzez inside the Octagon since then was when he won a decision over short notice newcomer Ange Loosa in April 2022. He did have a fight scheduled in July 2021, but Niklas Stolze dropped out and no replacement was found. Lazzez then had another opponent drop out the last time he fought, which was when Loosa stepped in. Prior to his loss against Alves, Lazzez showed a solid chin and crisp striking in his UFC debut. He absorbed everything Abdul Razak Alhassan could throw at him early on, and then went to work with his own striking. He showed a wide array of strikes and the ability to attack from multiple angles, mixing in elbows, knees and multi-level punches and kicks. He also tacked on four takedowns and nearly six minutes of control time. Lazzez’s last six fights have all ended in either decisions (2-1) or first round TKOs (2-1).
In his last fight, Lazzez took an early striking lead and never looked back. In addition to outlanding Ange Loosa on the feet, Lazzez was able to defend both of Loosa’s takedown attempts. Loosa struggled to find his range against the longer fighter in Lazzez and the fight ended with Lazzez ahead 141-88 in significant strikes and 141-91 in total strikes. Lazzez mixed it up with two takedown attempts of his own but failed to land either of them as he cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Lazzez has eight wins by KO/TKO and three decision victories. The only time he’s been finished was in a 2021 R1 TKO against Warlley Alves, with his only other loss coming in a 2019 five round decision.
Overall, Lazzez is a solid striker and the kickboxing coach at Team Nogueira Dubai. He lands a ton of striking volume, averaging 7.40 SSL/min (2nd most on the slate) and 5.28 SSA/min, and has landed 98 or more significant strikes in both of his UFC decisions. While he’s not an especially dangerous grappler and has never submitted anybody (or been submitted), he will mix in takedown attempts, and has landed four of his six attempts so far in the UFC (66.7% accuracy). He’s also been taken down by his three opponents twice on seven attempts (71.4% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’1” but Lazzez will have a 4” reach advantage and is 10 years older than the 25-year-old Bonfim. There is a lot of pressure being put on Bonfim as he makes his UFC debut in front of his home Brazil crowd and on the same card as his older brother. While he looks like a very talented young prospect, it’s hard to know how he’ll react to all of that. He’s also only ever been in one fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes so his late round cardio could be a concern, especially if we see an adrenaline dump. That’s not to say he can’t go three hard rounds, but it’s far from a certainty with a guy that’s never once required the judges. Both Bonfim and Lazzez are very talented strikers and we expect this to be a close fight on the feet. Lazzez tends to mix in more elbows, knees and kicks, which when combined with his reach advantage could make it tougher on Bonfim. Despite Bonfim finishing all 13 of his pro opponents, we like this to end in a close high-volume decision, with Lazzez taking over in the later stages. If Bonfim can mix in some grappling, that could be enough for him to get his hand raised, but we’re taking Lazzez to pull off the upset in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Bonfim/Lazzez FGTD” at +174.
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DFS Implications:
Bonfim looks like a very interesting prospect as he makes his UFC debut with a perfect 13-0 record and a 100% finishing rate. He’s a sharp boxer and also has 10 submission wins on his record, so he’s dangerous anywhere fights go. It will be interesting to see how his finishing abilities translate to the UFC level, specifically his grappling, but his boxing looks legit. There will be a ton of pressure on him in this fight as he makes his debut in front of his home Brazil crowd and on the same card as his older brother. This adds some uncertainty to the mix, but his upside is undeniable. He lands a ton of striking volume, mixes in grappling, and has finished every opponent he has ever faced. Really, what else could you ask for? However, we often see fighters struggle in their UFC debuts before bouncing back in their next fights, and we want to see how he fairs against the next level of competition before mortgaging the farm on this 25-year-old. He’s facing a very skilled striker in Lazzez who already has three fights worth of UFC experience and we should learn a lot about Bonfim in this matchup. We expect to see a ton of striking volume in this matchup, but at his high price tag Bonfim will likely either need a finish or to also mix in a good amount of grappling to return value. With that in mind, Lazzez has a solid 71% takedown defense and has only been finished once in his career. The odds imply Bonfim has a 61% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Lazzez is coming off a high-volume decision victory and both of his UFC wins have gone the distance. Despite failing to land a finish in those fights, Lazzez put up DraftKings scores of 88 and 101 as he put up big striking totals in each of those. He also mixed in four takedowns in his UFC debut and while he’s primarily a kickboxer, he will mix in some grappling to keep opponents guessing. With just one fight in the last two years, Lazzez’s inactivity is somewhat concerning, but it’s only been nine months since he last competed and he did look good in that fight. Now he’ll travel into enemy territory as he takes on a UFC newcomer who will have the crowd behind him. It will be interesting to see how Lazzez handles that pressure, but we like his chances. At his cheap price tag, Lazzez has a good shot at serving as a value play in a high-volume decision victory, keeping him in play even if he can’t find a finish. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Thiago Moises
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Moises had been set to face Guram Kutateladze here, but Kutateladze dropped out and Costa was announced as the replacement on January 8th.
After suffering the first two early losses of his career in a R4 submission against Islam Makhachev and a R1 TKO against Joel Alvarez, Moises bounced back with a first round submission win over a much less talented Christos Giagos. That was Moises’ first finish since 2020 and only his second in nine UFC appearances. Prior to the pair of early losses, Moises won three straight with a second round submission win over Michael Johnson, followed by a pair of decision victories over Bobby Green and Alexander Hernandez. All four of Moises’ UFC losses have come against really tough opponents, with his first two UFC defeats ending in decisions against Beneil Dariush and Damir Ismagulov.
In his last fight, Moises looked for an early takedown along the fence and eventually was able to complete it. Giagos was able to return to his feet, but as he did Moises took his back, secured a body lock and began fishing for his neck. It was just a matter of time before Moises completed the submission, as Giagos has been incredibly prone to getting submitted throughout his career. The fight ended with Moises ahead just 3-2 in significant strikes, while Giagos led 13-7 in total strikes. Moises landed one of his two takedown attempts with two and a half minutes of control time before locking in the submission victory midway through the first round.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Moises has three wins by KO, seven by submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted another time, and has four decision losses. After his first seven UFC fights all saw the second round, with six making it to round three and five going the distance, Moises’ last two matches have each ended in round one. Moises finished his first two pro opponents in the first round back in 2012, but 17 of his last 20 fights have made it past round one.
Overall, Moises is a dangerous BJJ black belt and an underrated striker. He’s constantly faced a really high level of competition, which helps to explain his 5-4 UFC record. He’s shown that despite his grappling background, he’s content with keeping fights standing. He’s also shown improved striking in his last few fights. Between his nine UFC fights and DWCS Brazil appearance, Moises has landed 8 of his 22 takedown attempts (36.4% accuracy). Conversely,, Moises has been taken down by his opponents 11 times on 28 attempts (60.7% defense).
Melquizael Costa
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut on just under two weeks’ notice, Costa has won his last two and seven of his most recent eight fights. He’s coming off a third round TKO win in the LFA and his last three wins have all come early. Prior to finishing his last two opponents, we saw a lackluster performance in a May 2022 LFA decision loss. Four of his last five fights have made it out of the first round, with three of those seeing round three, and two going the distance.
In his last fight, Costa dropped his opponent midway through the first round with a body kick that was followed by an awkward pause, as if nobody knew if the fight was being stopped, if it was a low blow, or if the ref was allowing it to continue. That pause gave his opponent just enough time to recover and the fight continued. Costa continued to patiently control the fight, although he did get taken down a couple of times in the match. His opponent, who had missed weight, slowed down late in the fight and Costa was able to find a TKO finish two minutes into the third round.
Now 19-5 as a pro, Costa has seven wins by KO/TKO, six by submission, and six decision victories. He has one TKO loss resulting from a 2017 post R1 doctor stoppage and has also been submitted once (R3 2018). His other three defeats all came via decision. He fought all the way down at 135 lb early in his career, and has gone back and forth between 145 lb and 155 lb since 2017. He had a fight at 145 lb as recently as early 2022.
Overall, Costa is a patient fighter who throws a lot of kicks. He trains out of Chute Boxe in Brazil and is a BJJ brown belt and Muay Thai black belt. Costa’s takedown defense has looked poor, which could get him into trouble in the UFC as he takes on tougher grapplers. While he hasn’t looked terrible on the regional scene, he also hasn’t been overly impressive. It seems like he’s only getting a shot in the UFC because they needed someone to fill in on short notice in Brazil and he was in the right place at the right time.
Fight Prediction:
Costa will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
This is a really tough spot for Costa to be making his UFC debut as he steps in on short notice against an established veteran. Moises is a high level grappler and Costa’s takedown defense has looked poor. Moises also looks like the superior striker in this matchup, so he should be able to control the fight wherever it goes. With that said, his path of least resistance will be to take Costa down and hunt for a submission. While Moises is coming off a first round submission win, four of his last five submission victories occurred in round two, and we’ll say that trend continues here with Moises landing another second round submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Moises SUB” at +180.
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DFS Implications:
Moises is coming off his best DFS performance since joining the UFC in a first round submission win that was good for 102 DraftKings points. His only other UFC finish was a second round submission that scored the bare minimum 70 DraftKings points as Moises amazingly landed just a single strike in the fight with no other stats on his scoresheet. He followed that up with a pair of low scoring decision wins that scored just 51 and 60 points, although earlier in his UFC career he scored 100 points in a grappling-heavy decision win. So he’s shown a wide range of scoring outcomes, but generally struggles to put up big scores. He averages just 2.48 SSL/min and has only landed four total takedowns in his last seven fights. At his expensive price tag, he’ll need a career performance here to return value and end up in tournament winning lineups. Even with another first round submission win, he’ll more likely than not be outscored by some of the other high priced fighters and still fail to crack tournament winning lineups. However, he does project to be significantly lower owned than most of the other expensive options, which makes him a very interesting tournament pivot. Considering he’s also in a good spot to excel as he faces a UFC newcomer who took the fight on short notice, Moises remains in play for tournaments. The odds imply he has a 76% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Costa couldn’t ask for a much tougher spot to be making his debut as he steps in on short notice and will be facing a UFC veteran who has him outclassed anywhere the fight goes. Costa has looked prone to getting taken down and Moises is a high level grappler, so it will be tougher for Costa to really get his offense going. Costa hasn’t looked especially dangerous anyways, and we don’t have much interest in playing him. He looks like nothing more than a low owned dart throw and we’re giving him less of a chance to win than the bookmakers are. The odds imply he has a 24% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Gregory Rodrigues
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Rodrigues had been set to face Brad Tavares here, but Tavares dropped out and Ferreira was announced as the replacement on January 11th.
Rodrigues is coming off a wild second round TKO win over Chidi Njokuani, who had previously been knocking out everyone the UFC put in front of him. In his second most recent fight, Rodrigues became the first fighter to ever finish a very durable Julian Marquez, and did so in an impressive first round knockout. Just before that, Rodrigues suffered his lone UFC loss in a questionable split decision against Armen Petrosyan, where Rodrigues showed a non-existent fight IQ by refusing to grapple in the first half of the fight against a one-dimensional kickboxer who’s helpless on the mat. Looking back one fight farther, Rodrigues handed Jun Yong Park the only KO loss of his career, although Rodrigues was close to getting finished himself. Other than the decision loss to Petrosyan, the only time Rodrigues has made it to the third round in his last nine fights was when he won a decision in his short notice UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic. Rodrigues has won 6 of his last 7 and 12 of his last 14 fights. Seven of his last nine fights have ended in knockouts (6-1), all in the first two rounds.
In his last fight, Rodrigues looked for an early single leg but ended up eating a massive knee for his troubles. He then nearly secured a pair of takedowns just moments later, but Njokuani was able to return to his feet immediately on both attempts. After a fast start, things briefly slowed down in the middle of the round, before Rodrigues dropped Njokuani in the final two minutes. However, Njokuani bounced right back to his feet and looked to engage in the clinch as Rodrigues continued teeing off on him. The final minute was spent in the clinch as the round came to a close. The two continued to trade in round two, but Njokuani appeared to be tiring, and Rodrigues took him down a minute into the round. Njokuani then put up no resistance off his back as Rodrigues went to town with ground and pound and the fight was stopped shortly thereafter. The match ended with Rodrigues ahead 48-44 in significant strikes and 60-47 in total strikes, while landing one of his three takedown attempts with 74 seconds of control time.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Rodrigues has eight wins by KO/TKO, three by submission, and two via decision. He’s been knocked out in the first round twice, with his other two losses ending in split decisions. One of his two KO losses came in his 2014 pro debut, while the other was on DWCS in 2020 against Jordan Williams, who is now 0-3. He hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and he hasn’t looked especially sharp on the mat, despite his celebrated jiu-jitsu background. He seems to have fallen in love with his striking and his last six finishes have all ended in knockouts.
Overall, Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt and 8-time National BJJ Champion. He has solid power, and is an overall good striker, but he’s also looked pretty hittable, averaging 5.87 SSA/min (3rd most on the slate). He hasn’t lived up to his grappling resume so far in the UFC and at this point we’ve fully given up on him to utilize his ground game even in favorable matchups. With that said, he’s landed at least one takedown in four of his five UFC fights and has never been submitted in his career. While he will occasionally mix in takedowns, he hasn’t done a great job of controlling opponents on the mat. He consistently finds himself getting sucked into brawls, which makes for exciting but dicey fights. Between his five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Rodrigues has only faced four takedown attempts, all of which he successfully defended in his UFC debut. None of his last four opponents had even tried to take him down.
Brunno Ferreira
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut following a first round TKO win on DWCS, Ferreira has finished all nine of his pro opponents in 6:08 or less. Only one of his last six fights made it out of the first round, with his last three victories all ending in the opening five minutes. He’s knocked out his last four opponents, while landing a pair of submission wins just before that.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take away much from it. Both guys came out looking to use fight-ending strikes, with Ferreira constantly switching stances. Ferreira looked to land big knees out of the Thai clinch before the two broke apart a minute in. Ferreira then landed a heavy right hook that left his opponent on wobbly legs, creating an opening to go in for the kill. While his opponent desperately tried to grab a leg to buy time to recover, Ferreira continued to land heavy punches and the fight was quickly stopped. The match ended with Ferreira ahead 16-10 in striking. He never attempted a takedown and defended the only takedown against him.
Now 9-0 as a pro, Ferreira has six wins by KO/TKO, and three by submission. Four of his six knockouts ended in round one, with the other two ending in the second round. All three of his submission wins ended in round one.
Overall, Ferreira is a stocky Brazilian powerhouse with a judo background. He’s generally looking to get fights to the ground, where he’ll go to work with heavy ground and pound while also looking for occasional submissions. We’ve yet to see him face much adversity in his career, and considering his longest MMA fight ended 78 seconds into round two, we have no idea what his cardio will look like in a longer fight. Considering he stepped into this fight on just 10 days’ notice, it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him fade if this fight makes it to the back half.
Fight Prediction:
Rodrigues will have a 5” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This should be an action packed banger between two Brazilian finishers. They both have backgrounds rooted in grappling, but throw strikes with a ton of power. Rodrigues will have a noticeable size advantage, which will make it tougher for Ferreira to close the distance and find his range. Ferreira is generally looking to take opponents down and finish them on the mat, but we have seen him land a few knockouts on the feet. However, Rodrigues has yet to be taken down in the UFC. Our expectation here is a wild brawl with Ferreira fading the longer the fight lasts. We’d be surprised if this fight lasted longer than 10 minutes and we’ll say Rodrigues lands another knockout in the opening two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Rodrigues/Ferreira Fight Ends in KO” at -165.
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DFS Implications:
Rodrigues has continued to put up slate-breaking scores in his last three wins, averaging 123 DraftKings points in those three knockouts. All three of those victories ended in the first two rounds, though Rodrigues split a pair of decisions in his other two UFC fights. After taking out a very dangerous Chidi Njokuani in his last match, Rodrigues will now face a UFC newcomer who stepped into this matchup on short notice after Rodrigues’ original opponent dropped out. That’s typically a spot we’re looking to target and is encouraging for Rodrigues’ chances of landing another finish and putting up another huge score. Keep in mind, Ferreira is undefeated as a pro and is built like a tank. Both fighters have grappling backgrounds and are from Brazil so perhaps those two factors will be a wash. While Rodrigues has a celebrated jiu-jitsu background, he hasn’t looked especially impressive on the mat in the UFC and has struggled to control opponents when he does look for takedowns. He also has a non-existent fight IQ and even in dream grappling spots will typically spend most of his time looking for knockouts. Therefore, we should never rely on him to put on a dominating grappling performance to score well. In his lone UFC decision win, he only scored 76 DraftKings points, while scoring just 37 in his decision loss. That’s nowhere close to enough for him to be useful, especially at his high price tag. He’s also never landed a finish beyond the second round, so we’re essentially relying on him finding a finish in under 10 minutes to return value (something he’s been very good at.) The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 59% chance to land a finish, and a 38% chance it comes in round one.
Ferreira has cruised through his competition on the regional scene, but will now face a major step up in competition as he makes his UFC debut on less than two weeks’ notice. In the majority of his fights, Ferreira looks to slam opponents to the mat and beat them up with ground and pound, while fishing for occasional submissions. However, Rodrigues has a celebrated jiu-jitsu background and has yet to be taken down in the UFC, albeit on just four attempts. That will make it tougher for Ferreira to execute his normal game plan and leaves him more reliant on landing an early knockout on the feet. Working in his favor, Rodrigues has been knocked out in the first round twice before, although only once in his last 16 matches. We have potential concerns with Ferreira’s cardio if this makes it past the midway point of round two, as Ferreira has never been past the 6:08 mark in a fight and has had little time to prepare for this matchup. That likely leaves him reliant on landing a knockout in the first round and a half if he wants to pull off the unlikely upset. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Ihor Potieria
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a one-sided second round TKO loss in his UFC debut, Potieria looked terrible as he began gassing out in the first round. Prior to the loss in his debut, Potieria had somehow won 15 straight fights, including a R1 KO on DWCS to punch his ticket to the UFC. Bear in mind, almost all of those wins were against a very low level of competition.
In Potieria’s last fight, Negumereanu looked to tie Potieria up early against the fence and patiently worked his way to a takedown. Negumereanu did a great job of negating the explosiveness of Potieria as he made the fight ugly and worked out of the clinch and on the mat. As Potieria slowed down in round two, Negumereanu was really able to turn it on and find a finish midway through the round as he landed a series of punches and knees along the fence. The fight ended with Negumereanu ahead 51-38 in significant strikes and 72-52 in total strikes, while tacking on two takedowns on three attempts with four minutes of control time.
Potieria’s sketchy record seems to change every time we check it. Prior to his UFC debut, he was listed at 19-2 or 20-2 depending on where you looked, but now he shows up as 18-3 everywhere. Apparently his debut performance was so terrible that they took away a win. Based on the information we currently have available, he has eight wins by KO/TKO, six by submission, and four via decision. All but one of his finishes occurred in the first round, with the other ending in round two. He has two TKO losses and one decision defeat. He’s competed at both 185 lb and 205 lb in his career, but his last two fights have been at 205 lb, where this next one will also be. We have some concerns regarding the inconsistencies in his record as he’s not the first Ukrainian fighter to come into the UFC with some creative record keeping.
Overall, Potieria is technically a Ukrainian international Master of Sport in combat sambo, but he looks like a total fraud with a three minute gas tank. While we haven’t been at all impressed by what we’ve seen out of him, he has shown decent power, but hasn’t really stood out anywhere else. He doesn’t land a ton of striking volume or takedowns, and has looked prone to getting controlled along the fence and taken down himself. We’d be shocked if this guy made it to a second UFC contract.
Mauricio Rua
23rd UFC Fight (11-11)Stepping into the final fight of his lengthy career, Rua has already announced he’ll be retiring after this match. He’s coming off a split-decision loss against Ovince St. Preux, following a fight where he got finished in the second round by Paul Craig. Rua hasn't won a fight since 2020 when he defeated fellow geriatric fighter Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in another split decision. Looking back one fight further, Rua fought to a split decision draw the first time he faced Paul Craig, and three of Rua’s last four fights have ended in split decisions.
In his last fight, we saw a low-volume kickboxing match with neither guy looking to push the pace. Striking was dead even in the first round and identical in round two. Then St. Preux outlanded Rua in round three to secure the split decision win. The fight ended with St. Preux ahead 62-54 in striking, while failing to land the only takedown attempt in the fight.
Now 27-13-1 as a pro, Rua has 21 wins by KO, one by submission via a kneebar in 2006, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out six times, submitted three more, and has four decision losses. Rua’s last 12 fights have all ended in either KO/TKOs (3-4) or decisions (3-1-1). His last five and eight of his last nine fights have seen the second round. Five of his last six losses came early and he’s only lost one decision since 2012. His last two finishes both came by third round TKO (2017 & 2018) and he hasn’t finished an opponent before the third round since 2013.
Overall, the 41-year-old Rua is a washed up knockout specialist turned pro all the way back in 2002. He’s only finished two opponents since 2013 and the most recent of those was due to a knee injury. He’s never landed a ton of striking volume and only averages 3.57 SSL/min. He’ll mix in sporadic takedown attempts, although he didn’t attempt any in his last two matches. He’s only fought once since his November 2020 loss to Craig and it’s surprising he hasn’t already retired.
Fight Prediction:
Potieria will have a 2” height advantage, while Rua will have 1” reach advantage. Potieria is 15 years younger than the 41-year-old Rua.
This is sort of an odd matchup for Rua’s swan song, but it sort of makes sense stylistically as Rua should either get finished in round one or take over in the later rounds after Potieria gasses out. Rua will either go out with a win or in a blaze of glory. Potieria looks like a total fraud, but we also hate betting on fighters who have already announced their retirement. That makes this a tricky spot to predict but an easy one to bet. While Potieria is capable of knocking Rua out early, we fully expect Potieria’s cardio to fail him once again if this makes it past the first round. Most opponents would be able to finish Potieria at that point, although we’re not sure if Rua still even has that in him, so we wouldn’t be surprised if this went the distance with both guys limping to the finish line. Another split decision is entirely possible, and fighting in front of his home crowd, we’ll say Rua gets his hand raised with the judges.
Our favorite bet here is “Rua R3 or DEC” at +360.
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DFS Implications:
Potieria looked abysmal in his recent UFC debut as he got controlled along the cage, gassed out late in round one, and was then easily finished in round two. He looks like a total fraud and we should probably completely ignore his pre-UFC results. However, while his cardio remains a liability, he does have decent power and now gets to face a 41-year-old who has already announced his retirement. That’s generally a spot we’re looking to target and is the only reason we have any interest in playing Potieria, other than his low ownership. He looks like a R1 KO or bust hold your nose option in a high-variance fight. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 28% chance it comes in round one.
Rua was a DFS gold mine in a past life, but those days are well behind him and his only finish since 2017 came in a 2018 third round TKO after Tyson Pedro suffered a knee injury. Rua has already announced he’s retiring after this fight, which almost never works out well for fighters. However, Potieria looks like a complete fake who turns into a pumpkin after the first round and if he completely gasses out then maybe Rua can tip him over. At his cheap price tag, Rua has the potential to serve as a value play with a late finish, but it’s tougher to see him doing that in a decision. His last decision victory scored just 72 DraftKings points, while his last third round finish was good for 98 points. His low ownership adds little to his appeal, and while both guys are super gross, they’re each in incredible spots to succeed. The odds imply Rua has a 34% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Johnny Walker
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Fresh off a rare submission win, Walker notched just his second win in his last six outings when he finished Ion Cutelaba in the first round of his last fight. Cutelaba has also been finished in three straight fights and eats Legos for breakfast, so take the win with a grain of salt. Walker’s only other win since 2019 was a 2020 R1 KO victory over Ryan Spann, in a fight where Walker nearly got finished himself. Prior to the win over Cutelaba, Walker was knocked out in the first round by Jamahal Hill after losing a painfully slow paced decision to Thiago Santos. Walker’s last 11 fights have all either ended in the first round (6-2) or gone the distance (1-2).
In his last fight, Walker got taken down by Cutelaba in the opening 30 seconds, but after two minutes in top control Cutelaba tried for an unsuccessful armbar and had his position reversed. Cutelaba was able to return to his feet, but Walker held onto his back and returned him to the mat. Walker then immediately looked for a rear-naked choke and eventually was able to complete it late in the round. The fight ended with both fighters landing three significant strikes, 17 total strikes, one takedown, and two minutes of control time, in a bizarrely symmetrical statsheet.
Now 19-7 as a pro, Walker has 15 wins by KO, three by submission, and one via decision. He’s been knocked out four times, has one submission loss (R2 2015), and two decision defeats. Walker is now 5-4 in the UFC with six of those fights ending in the first round (5-2), and the other two going the distance (0-2). Of his 23 pro fights to end early (18-5), only four have made it out of round one, with just one making it to round three, which occurred in a 2015 R3 KO win 28 seconds into the third round in Walker’s 5th pro fight.
Historically, Walker has been a wild power puncher with a 5-8 minute gas tank, although it appears his new team is trying to instill a more patient approach in him. After not attempting a takedown in his first eight UFC fights, Walker landed his only attempt in his last match and followed it up with his only submission win since 2017. While he is a BJJ brown belt, we rarely see much grappling from him. He generally relies on his power and athleticism to win fights and looks extremely hittable with his poor striking defense. He’s been taken down 7 times on 17 attempts (58.8% defense) between his nine UFC fights and his DWCS Brazil appearance. Four of his last five opponents to try and take him down have been successful, with the one exception being Thiago Santos who failed on his only attempt.
Paul Craig
15th UFC Fight (8-5-1)Looking to bounce back from his first loss since 2019, Craig lost a decision to Volkan Oezdemir after finishing his previous four opponents. His last five wins all came in under nine minutes, with four of those ending in round one. He's faced a lot of tough competition throughout his career, with fights against guys like Tyson Pedro (L), Magomed Ankalaev, Jimmy Crute (L), Jamahal Hill, and Nikita Krylov. While Craig is generally a one-dimensional submission threat, two of his last three wins have actually ended in TKOs. The most recent of those was due to the referee failing to stop the fight when he should have after Craig dislocated the elbow of Jamahal Hill with an armbar. Hill refused to tap, and the referee incompetently failed to recognize the injury resulting in a delayed stoppage that was eventually ruled a TKO instead of a submission. Just prior to that win, Craig landed his first KO/TKO win in the UFC which came via ground and pound against a 38-year-old Mauricio Rua in a rematch of their previous fight that ended in a draw. Craig was able to take the back of a facedown Rua and opted to finish the fight with ground and pound as opposed to attempting a rear-naked choke like he normally would.
In his last fight, Craig tried to execute his normal game plan of pulling guard and hunting for submissions off his back, but Oezdemir did a great job of evading Craig’s submission attempts and returning to his feet. Oezdemir never really pushed for a finish of his own and was content with landing strikes when they were available, while not loading up on anything. The official stats ended with Oezdemir ahead 72-33 in significant strikes and 108-41 in total strikes. Craig doesn’t look for traditional takedowns and is really just trying to suck opponents on top of him on the mat. However, they officially documented him with zero successful takedowns on 15 attempts and just seven seconds of control time. Meanwhile, Oezdemir was credited with one takedown landed on two attempts with five minutes of control time, despite never actually trying to get the fight to the ground.
Now 16-5-1 as a pro, Craig has 3 wins by TKO and 13 by submission. He’s been knocked out three times (all in R1) and submitted once himself. He’s only been to two decisions in 22 pro fights, one of which came in his recent loss to Oezdemir and the other being the 2019 draw against Rua. Craig has only seen the third round five times in 22 pro fights, with three of those ending in submission in the final 40 seconds (1-2), including a last second submission win over Magomed Ankalaev. Fourteen of his pro fights ended in the first round (11-3), three ended in round two (3-0), and three more ended in round three (2-1).
Overall, Craig fights like a Venus flytrap. He has no problem pulling guard and drawing opponents into his comfort zone off his back. He’s a BJJ black belt who excels at throwing up armbars and triangle chokes. He’s never landed more than 51 significant strikes in a fight, and has only topped 31 once. Similarly, he has only once absorbed more than 59 significant strikes in a match, which occurred in his recent decision loss when he absorbed 72. His unique style of offensive grappling off his back typically means he’s losing fights until he’s not, which leaves him reliant on landing finishes to come out victorious.
Fight Prediction:
Walker will have a 3” height advantage and 6” reach advantage. He’s also five years younger than the 35-year-old Craig.
We always know what to expect out of Craig as he looks to execute the same grappling-heavy gameplan off his back every time he steps inside the Octagon. However, Walker has been more all over the place lately as we’ve seen him in crazy brawls, boring decisions, and most recently a brief grappling match. Walker clearly has a ton of power but he’s also been prone to getting finished, with five of his seven career losses coming early. Craig has also been finished in four of his five career losses and it’s rare for either one of these two to require the judges. The most obvious two outcomes in this matchup are either a Walker KO win or a Craig submission victory, but we have seen terrible refereeing turn a submission into a TKO at multiple times in the past, one of which was notably when Craigh snapped Jamahal Hill’s arm in an armbar. Craig also has one legitimate TKO victory on his record, which he achieved through ground and pound. The last time Walker fought in Brazil, he got smothered on the mat for three rounds by Nikita Krylov and ended up losing a decision. However, Craig almost exclusively works off his back, which doesn’t put him in any sort of position to win a decision. If this fight somehow goes the distance, Walker is the more likely of the two to get his hand raised with the judges. With that said, we like it to end early and don’t see Walker as being savvy enough to avoid getting submitted by Craig unless Walker lands a first round knockout. We like Craig to get back on track here with a submission win, most likely in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “Craig SUB” at +340.
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DFS Implications:
All five of Walker’s UFC victories have ended in the first round, as have 16 of his 19 overall career wins. Historically, he’s been a R1 KO or bust fighter, although he did recently land a random submission and his team at SBG Ireland appears to be trying to slow down the pace at which he fights. He’s averaged 115 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, scoring at least 104 in each of those. When he does win, expect him to put up a big score, but he’s also been finished in the first round twice in the UFC. That leaves him as a boom or bust option, but we generally see the winner of his fights score well. Craig provides a unique challenge, similar to Charles Oliveira in the sense that after you hurt him he’ll just flop to his back and force opponents to either engage in grappling with him or allow him time to recover. That will leave Walker more reliant on landing a clean KO on the feet, unless he’s willing to go to the mat with Craig. We’re treating Walker as a R1 KO or bust option as he hasn’t finished anybody beyond the first round in his last 11 fights. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 52% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Craig is coming off the first decision loss of his career and has also never won a decision. All 16 of his career wins have come early and you always know what to expect out of him as he tries to pull guard and submit opponents off his back. That often creates some dicey situations where Craig is absorbing ground and pound before throwing up an armbar or triangle choke, but more often than not it results in him finishing his opponents. While Walker is a BJJ brown belt and has only been submitted once in his career, we’re not convinced that he can hang with Craig on the mat for very long before Craig eventually submits him. The one problem with Craig’s style of offensive grappling off his back is that he’s not actually accruing any control time on the mat and often not even officially landing takedowns to get there, as he pulls guard to get opponents to the mat. He’s landed just one takedown in his last three fights combined. While all eight of his UFC wins have come early, he only averaged 95 DraftKings points in those matches, scoring 98 or fewer in five of those. At his cheaper price tag, that’s less of a concern as he can still find his way into winning tournament lineups even without putting up a slate-breaking score, but it’s still something to consider. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Jessica Andrade
22nd UFC Fight (14-7)Continuing to float between weight classes, Andrade is moving back up to 125 lb for this fight after submitting Amanda Lemos down at 115 lb in her last match. Apparently the idea of working towards a rematch with Weili is not something Andrade has the stomach for at this point. That was Andrade’s second straight first round finish and third in her last four fights. Just before finishing Lemos, Andrade landed a late R1 TKO victory against Cynthia Calvillo at 125 lb. This happened after getting finished in the second round of a 2021 title fight against Valentina Shevchenko. Andrade catapulted her way into that title fight with a first round knockout of Katlyn Chookagian just before that, in what was Andrade’s first career fight at 125 lb. Prior to that she had competed at both 115 lb and 135 lb. Andrade previously held the 115 lb belt for a cup of coffee in 2019 when she knocked out Rose Namajunas by way of a slam the first time they fought. It also happened to be in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. However, Andrade immediately relinquished the title when she got knocked out by Zhang Weili 42 seconds into her first title defense. Andrade then lost a three-round split decision before making the move up to 125 lb.
In Andrade’s last fight, Lemos started well, methodically picking Andrade apart with kicks and evading the offerings coming back her way. However, midway through the round Andrade locked up a standing arm-triangle choke and Lemos was unable to escape. The fight ended with Lemos ahead 7-3 in striking, but the momentary slip up was all it took for Andrade to find her opening and secure the victory.
Now 23-9 as a pro, Andrade has nine wins by KO, eight by submission, and six decisions. Six of her nine career losses have also come early, with four KOs and two submissions. She also has three decision defeats. Her last four and seven of her last eight fights have ended early, with the one exception being a 2020 split-decision loss to Namajunas. Andrade’s last five wins have all been finishes, with three first round knockouts, a first round submission, and a second round knockout. While Andrade has gone just 3-3 in her last six fights, all of those losses came against current or former champions and she’s been dominating everyone else. Her only other loss since dropping down from 135 lb was against another champion in Jedrzejczyk, and three of her four UFC losses at 115/125 lb have come in title fights and the other was against former/future champion Rose Namajunas in a top contender fight. Six of Andrade’s UFC finishes came in round one, with the other two ending in round two.
Overall, Andrade is an aggressive striker who constantly pushes forward looking to land fight ending shots and slam her opponents unconscious. She’s willing to take one to land one, which has gotten her into trouble at times, but only when facing elite competition. She struggles the most with longer opponents who have good footwork and can counter her from distance, while avoiding the shots coming from Andrande. She averages 6.16 SSL/min, 5.16 SSA/min, and 2.9 TDL/min.
Lauren Murphy
14th UFC Fight (8-5)After getting dominated and finished in the fourth round by Valentina Shevchenko in 2021, Murphy bounced back with a decision win over Miesha Tate in her last fight. Prior to the loss against Shevchenko, Murphy had won five in a row, but two of those were in split decisions that easily could have gone the other way. Her other wins have come against a short notice replacement making her UFC debut and a series of low-level aging fighters, so we’ve yet to see any sort of signature win from Murphy.
In her last fight, Murphy was able to neutralize the wrestling of Tate, as Murphy stuffed all seven of Tate’s takedown attempts, while landing two of her own six attempts. The striking totals were pretty close in all three rounds, but Murphy finished ahead in each of those and the fight ended with Murphy leading 102-85 in significant strikes and 128-121 in total strikes.
Now 16-5 as a pro, Murphy has eight wins by KO, one by submission, and seven decision victories. The only person to ever finish her was Valentina Shevchenko, with her other four losses all coming by decision. Five of her eight KO wins came in her first five pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 1-1, 0-1, 2-0, 1-2, and 2-2. Four of those five women never fought again and the first four of those fights notably took place on the Alaskan scene. Her last 16 fights have all seen the second round, with 15 making it to round three, and 11 going the distance.
Overall, Murphy is an overrated aging fighter who’s lived up to her “Lucky” nickname throughout her career with every close call going her way. She typically relies on her strength to win fights and isn’t really exceptional at anything. She averages a pedestrian 3.84 SSL/min, while absorbing an average of 4.45/min. She adds 1.1 TDL/15 min, but has never landed more than two in a fight.
Fight Prediction:
Murphy will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, but Andrade is eight years younger than the 39-year-old Murphy.
Murphy has basically no shot at winning this fight barring a freak injury and we fully expect Andrade to put on a statement performance in front of her home crowd. Andrade is better in every facet of the game and should maul Murphy in this matchup. While Murphy has only been finished once in her career, she’s also only ever faced one opponent as dangerous as Andrade. While it’s not impossible that Andrade just beats on Murphy for 15 min and wins a decision, we really like her to find a finish in the first two rounds, most likely by R1 knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Andrade ITD” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
Andrade’s aggressive fighting style is perfectly tailored for DFS production and she’s averaged 114 DraftKings points in her 14 UFC wins, with 11 of those victories scoring 100 or more, eight scoring at least 115, and three topping 130. In addition to her high-volume striking (6.16 SSL/min), she’s frequently looking to slam opponents to the mat and averages 2.9 TDL/15 min. Her last five wins have all come in the first two rounds, with four of those ending in round one. While we’ve seen Andrade struggle at times when facing world champions, she’s dominated lesser competition like Murphy. The UFC knows what they’re doing here, feeding Murphy to Andrade in front of Andrade’s home crowd in Brazil. We expect Andrade to put on a dominant performance accompanied by a big DFS score. The only way we see her failing to really score well is with a poorly timed or hyper efficient finish, as we saw in her most recent victory. Those are impossible to plan for, but do happen. As the third most expensive fighter on the slate, she’ll need to outscore the other top priced options to end up in tournament winning lineups, but we love her chances of doing just that. The odds imply she has a 79% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Murphy is almost never someone we’re ever looking to play in DFS and this is one of the toughest matchups she could ask for. Even in good matchups, she struggles to score well and this will be the toughest opponent she’s ever faced outside of Shevchenko. There’s really no justifiable reason to play Murphy outside of the fact that she’ll be incredibly low owned and crazy things happen when you lock two adults inside of a cage. But barring a freak injury, Murphy is drawing dead here and we have absolutely no interest in playing her. The odds imply she has a 21% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Gilbert Burns
19th UFC Fight (13-5)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev, Burns has lost two of his last three fights. In fairness, the other loss was against Kamaru Usman. In between those two losses, Burns won a grappling-heavy decision over Stephen Thompson, which is his only victory since he defeated Tyron Woodley in a five-round decision back in May 2020. Since moving up from 155 lb to 170 lb in 2018, five of Burn’s last seven fights have gone the distance, with the two exceptions being a 2021 R3 TKO loss to Usman and a 2020 R1 TKO win over an aging Demian Maia, which took place on the last Brazil card. Prior to the loss to Usman, Burns had won six straight fights after getting knocked out by Dan Hooker in the first round of a 2018 match.
In his last fight, we saw a crazy back and forth brawl between Burns and Chimaev. While Chimaev was able to take Burns down less than a minute into the fight, Burns was able to quickly return to his feet and Chimaev only landed one more takedown attempt in the fight on three total attempts. Conversely, Burns failed to take Chimaev down on any of his five attempts. Chimaev dropped Burns with a right jab in the final minute of the round to secure the round on the scorecards. Burns responded well in round two as he pulled ahead in striking and looked to have Chimaev somewhat hurt midway through the round. Burns tried and failed to take Chimaev down early in round three, while Chimaev was content with keeping the fight standing. Chimaev took an early lead in strikes in the round, but Burns made things close as the round went on. In the end, the third round was given to Chimaev who landed the more impactful blows and rightfully won the round on all three scorecards to get his hand raised in a unanimous 29-28 decision. The fight ended with Burns actually ahead in significant strikes 119-108 and in total strikes 141-124, but Chimaev ahead on takedowns 2-0, in knockdowns 1-0, and in control time 2:23-0:06
Now 20-5 as a pro, Burns has six wins by KO/TKO, eight by submission, and six decision victories. While he’s never been submitted, he’s been knocked out twice and has three decision losses. Burns only has one submission win in his last 13 fights, which was back in 2019 just before he moved up to 170 lb. Burns fought his 2014 UFC debut at 170 lb, where he won a decision, but then dropped down to 155 lb for his next 10 fights. He moved back up to 170 lb in 2019, where he’s stayed since. He's now 6-2 at 170 lb in the UFC, with five decision wins and a R1 KO victory. At 155 lb in the UFC, Burns went 7-3 with four wins by submission, two by KO and one by decision. So while 86% of his wins at 155 lb came early, 83% of his victories at 170 lb have gone the distance.
Overall, Burns is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt and a very well rounded fighter. While he’s a dangerous grappler and a powerful puncher, there’s no denying that he’s been far less of a threat to finish fights early up at 170 lb. While we saw Burns throw down in a crazy brawl in his last fight, landing 119 significant strikes in 15 minutes (7.93/min), Burns has only averaged 3.46 SSL/min over the course of his UFC career. He also does a good job of mixing in takedowns, averaging 2.0 TDL/15 min. While he’s a dangerous grappler, he only has a 47% takedown defense, having been taken down four total times in his last 11 fights.
Neil Magny
29th UFC Fight (20-8)Coming off his first early win since 2018, Magny bounced back from a second round submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov with a third round submission win over Daniel Rodriguez just two months ago. Prior to the pair of submissions, Magny fought to six straight decisions (5-1). Magny’s only loss over that stretch came in a smothering five-round decision against Michael Chiesa, and we’ve seen Magny struggle against grapplers at multiple points.
In his last fight, Magny found some early grappling success to slow Daniel Rodriguez down in the first round, but round two remained entirely on the feet and Rodriguez even things on the scorecards going into round three. Rodriguez landed some good shots early in round three that left Magny looking for a takedown. Rodriguez was able to stuff the attempt and ended up in top position. However, he more or less relinquished the position and the two returned to their feet. Magny then took Rodriguez down and controlled him until he was eventually able to lock up a submission in the final two minutes of the fight. The match ended with Rodriguez ahead 66-57 in significant strikes, but Magny ahead 106-71 in total strikes. Magny landed five of his seven takedown attempts with just over four minutes of control time.
Now 27-9 as a pro, Magny has seven wins by KO, four by submission, and sixteen via decision. He’s only submitted one opponent since 2011, which came in the third round of a 2015 fight. He’s also only knocked out two opponents since 2015 (2016 & 2018). In contrast, he’s been finished in seven of his nine pro losses, including two KOs and five submissions. Three of his five submission defeats occurred in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. One of his two KO losses also ended in round one, with the other ending in round four. Despite all of those early losses, Magny has only been finished once since 2018. Magny has gone an impressive 16-2 in his 18 career decisions.
Overall, Magny wears on his opponents with a combination of striking and grappling as he weaponizes his cardio and often comes out ahead in the later rounds. While he generally doesn’t put up huge significant striking totals, averaging just 3.62 SSL/min, he tacks on 2.4 TDL/15 min to help grind on his opponents’ gas tanks. Magny typically doesn’t get hit a ton, averaging just 2.27 SSA/min in his career, but his biggest weakness has been his defensive grappling and his 57% takedown defense isn’t anything to write home about. Three of his last four losses came against solid grapplers in Shavkat Rakhmonov, Michael Chiesa, and Rafael Dos Anjos.
Fight Prediction:
Magny will have a 5” height advantage and 9” reach advantage.
Burns has gone the distance in five of his last seven fights, while Magny has required the judges in six of his last eight matches. In turn, it would make a lot of sense for this fight to also end in a decision. However, if anyone is going to feed off the Brazilian crowd it’s going to be Burns, and Magny has been finished in 7 of his 9 pro losses. That makes it tougher to predict how this fight will end, but it feels like Burns is more likely than normal to find a finish. Magny has been more prone to getting submitted than knocked out and Burns is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt, so a submission win for Burns would make a lot of sense. Keep in mind, he only has one submission victory in his last 13 fights, which was in 2019 when he was still fighting at 155 lb. That makes it tougher to get excited about his +230 submission line. A knockout is also possible, but Burns has only landed one of those in his last 10 fights, while the line is just +300. Installed as a prohibitive -500 favorite, it’s hard to really get excited about any of Burns’ betting lines, but we do like him to win this fight, it’s just a question of how. We’ll say he finds a finish in the first two rounds, with a submission being a little more likely than a knockout, but we won’t be surprised if this goes the distance and it looks like a crapshoot from a prop betting perspective. For what it’s worth, Burns has fought in Brazil five times since joining the UFC (3-2). All three of those wins came early, while he lost both of the decisions he went to in Brazil.
Our favorite bet here is “Burns SUB” at +230.
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DFS Implications:
Burns has averaged 94 DraftKings points in his 13 UFC wins and has only once scored above 84 points in a three-round decision, which was in 2018 when he was still fighting down at 155 lb. Therefore, he’s generally been reliant on finding finishes to score well. Working against him, he only has one finish in his last seven fights since moving up to 170 lb in 2019, which was when he knocked out a 42-year-old Demian Maia in 2020. However, Burns is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt and Magny has been prone to getting submitted, and now Burns will get to fight in front of his home Brazil crowd. We expect Burns to feed off the crowd, raising his potential for ending this fight early, but he’s still a hard guy to trust to end things early. Even if he does find a finish, at his expensive price tag he’ll also need to outscore the other high priced options, making it even tougher for him to crack tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 79% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Magny is coming off his first early win since 2018, but was able to score 110 DraftKings points in a third round submission. His previous five victories all went the distance, with Magny averaging 82 DraftKings points over that stretch. He scored anywhere from 63 to 100 points in those decision wins, showing a wide range of scoring potential. He generally mixes in a combination of striking and grappling that allows him to score well at times even without landing finishes, but grappling with Burns will be a risky endeavor. That could force Magny into trying to keep this fight standing, at which point it will be much tougher for him to score well without a finish. Working against him is the fact that Burns has never been submitted and Magny hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2018. The only realistic way we see Magny ending up in tournament winning lineups is with a decision win in a lower scoring slate with very few underdogs winning, allowing Magny to serve as a value play. That’s a pretty tight needle to thread, leaving us less excited about playing Magny here. The odds imply he has a 21% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Deiveson Figueiredo
14th UFC Fight (10-2-1)This groundhog day matchup continues as these two square off for the fourth time. The last time Figueiredo faced anyone besides Moreno was in November 2020, when he submitted Alex Perez in the first round. After fighting to a draw caused by a Figueiredo point deduction in the first fight, Moreno was able to submit Figueiredo in the third round of the rematch. Keep in mind that Figueiredo had a dreadful weight cut for that fight and barely made it on and off the scale. Figueiredo then evened the score most recently when he won a close decision to regain the belt. Figueiredo’s long layoff resulted from hand and finger injuries that didn’t allow him to hit pads for an extended period of time.
In their last fight, Figueiredo did a good job of landing leg kicks (27) and was landing the more impactful shots as he notched three knockdowns in the match, while Moreno was the busier fighter, landing more total strikes. That made it a tough fight to score and the judges were split on each of the last two rounds. However, all three judges scored the fight 48-47 in favor of Figueiredo. The fight ended with Moreno ahead 105-86 in significant strikes and 106-95 in total strikes. Moreno landed one of his two takedown attempts with 46 seconds of control time, while Figueiredo landed 2 of his 11 attempts with 2:18 in control time.
Now 21-2-1 as a pro, Figueiredo has nine wins by KO/TKO, eight by submission, and four decision victories. Seven of Figueiredo’s 10 UFC wins have come early with four by KO and three by submission. All four of the KOs came in round two, while all three submissions ended in round one. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a third round submission the second time he faced Moreno. The only other loss of Figueiredo’s career was a 2019 decision against Jussier Formiga, in a low-volume grappling match where Figueiredo was taken down three times and controlled for nearly half the fight.
This will be Figueiredo’s seventh straight five-round fight, although he didn’t make it out of the first two rounds in the first three. Since then, he’s fought to two five-round decisions against Moreno and has been submitted in the third round.
Overall, the BJJ black belt Figueiredo is dangerous anywhere the fights go. He has crazy power at 125 lb, along with his slick submission skills. He does a good job of mixing in takedowns, but has never landed more than two in a UFC fight. He has also landed more than 86 significant strikes only once in his career, which was in the first fight against Moreno. Figueiredo routinely struggles with the cut down to 125 lb, and has flirted with the idea of moving up to 135 lb. This makes him a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins. We saw him really struggle to make weight the second time these two fought and it showed inside the Octagon. For his last fight, Figueiredo completely changed up his preparation as he began training with Henry Cejudo in the US instead of Brazil where he had previously opened up his own gym. However, Figueiredo returned home to Para, Brazil for this camp.
Brandon Moreno
14th UFC Fight (8-3-2)While Figueiredo has been sitting on the sidelines for the last year nursing hand injuries, Moreno was busy winning the interim Flyweight belt last July when he finished Kai Kara-France late in the third round. Prior to that, Moreno suffered his only loss in his last nine fights in the 48-47 decision against Figueiredo. Leading up to the three fights against Figueiredo, Moreno defeated Brandon Royval in a R1 TKO after Roval’s shoulder dislocated. While Moreno’s last three wins have all come early, his three fights before that all went the distance (2-0-1). Amazingly, Moreno has had two draws in his last eight fights, with both of those being split/majority.
Moreno originally joined the UFC in 2016 on an 8 fight winning streak and submitted Louis Smolka in the first round of his debut. He then beat Ryan Benoit in a decision before getting another submission win in his third UFC fight, that time with a R2 rear-naked choke against Dustin Ortiz. The explosive start to his UFC career was enough to land him a main event spot against Sergio Pettis, which Moreno went on to lose in a decision. He followed that up with a three-round decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja. Following the pair of losses, Moreno fought a 2019 match in the LFA where he notched a R4 KO. He then returned to the UFC in 2019 and fought to a split-decision draw against Askar Askarov. After the draw, he won a pair of decisions before defeating Royval.
In his last fight, the first two rounds were close, with each fighter winning one of the opening two rounds, although both rounds were split on the scorecards. Kara-France split Moreno open below his right eye as the two tangled on the mat early in round three. However, Moreno responded late in the round with a body kick to Kara-France’s liver that immediately shut Kara-France down. Moreno then followed up with ground and pound to force the stoppage. The fight ended with Moreno ahead in significant strikes 58-53, while Kara-France led in total strikes 66-59. Moreno failed to land any of his three takedown attempts, while Kara-France landed one of his two attempts.
Now 20-6-2 as a pro, Moreno has four wins by TKO, 11 by submission, and five decisions. He’s never been finished in an official pro fight, with all six of his pro losses going the distance. With that said, he was submitted in the second round on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016 by Alexandre Pantoja, but those TUF fights are counted as exhibition matches so it doesn’t show up on his official pro record. While 7 of his last 10 UFC fights have gone the distance, his last three wins have all come early, with the last two of those ending in round three.
This will be the 7th five-round fight of Moreno’s career, and 6th in the UFC. His first was a 2017 decision loss to Sergio Pettis. Then he landed a 4th round TKO in a 2019 LFA fight after a brief cut by the UFC. He followed that up by going 1-1-1 in his three five-round matches against Figueiredo, with two going the distance—a loss and a draw—and one ending in a third round submission victory. Most recently, Moreno landed a third round TKO against Kai Kara-France. Moreno is 2-2-1 in UFC five-round matches, but has yet to win a UFC five-round decision in three trips to the judges.
Overall, Moreno is a BJJ black belt and also extremely durable. His striking has improved throughout his UFC career and he’s still just 29 years old and seemingly still improving. He’s never been a very high-volume fighter, averaging just 3.58 SSL/min in his career. He failed to land more than 91 significant strikes in any of his first nine UFC fights, before landing 132 and 105 in his two fights against Figueiredo that went the distance. In his 13 UFC fights, he’s landed 22 takedowns on 49 attempts (44.9%). He only failed to attempt a takedown in two of those 13 fights. Moreno switched camps to Glory MMA & Fitness leading up to his last fight and started this camp there as well, before Krause was suspended and Moreno was forced to relocate to Fortis MMA.
Fight Prediction:
Moreno will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is six years younger than the 35-year-old Figueiredo.
Moreno continues to be the toughest matchup for Figueiredo due to his insane durability. While Figueiredo was able to land three knockdowns in their last fight, he’s had 12 and a half rounds to try and finish him and has been unable to do so. We have no reason to think that changes here, despite Figueiredo being one of, if not the most dangerous Flyweights on the planet. Other than Moreno’s insane durability, Figueiredo’s biggest obstacle is the weight cut down to 125 lb, which has been a problem for him throughout his career and can’t be getting any easier the older he gets. We saw Figueiredo really struggle with the weight cut the second time he fought Moreno and that translated to a poor performance in the Octagon. The cut appeared to go much more smoothly in his last fight, and he performed much better. These two are so evenly matched that Figueiredo needs to show up as the best version of himself to win. Following a year away, multiple hand injuries, and a move in camps, we don’t know exactly how he’ll look in the cage, but if he looks bad on the scale that will be enough for us to side with Moreno in this one, with a good chance he finds a finish. However, if Figueiredo looks fine on the scale, we’re more inclined to say this ends in another close decision that will likely be decided by a single round or scorecard. We could see it going either way in that scenario so give us the plus money on Figueiredo if his weigh in goes smoothly. We don’t normally leave our prediction entirely dependent on weigh-ins, but history tells us that’s the right move in this particular matchup.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -134.
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DFS Implications:
Figueiredo scored 110 DraftKings points in his recent five-round decision win over Moreno, but keep in mind that score was bolstered by three knockdowns and a pair of takedowns. Figueiredo still only landed 86 significant strikes in the fight, which is still the second most he’s ever landed in a match. The most landed came when he fought Moreno the first time, where he landed 137 significant strikes, but failed to notch a knockdown. He only scored 68 DraftKings points in that five-round draw, so even if it had gone his way, he’d only be looking at 98 points. Figueiredo has previously shown the ability to put up big scores, but they always resulted from finishes, and Moreno has never been finished as a pro. That will make it tougher for Figueiredo to put up a slate-breaking score, although at his reasonable price tag he could still sneak into winning tournament lineups with just a good score. That makes it tougher to take a hard stand here, in what we expect to be a very close fight as long as the weight cut doesn’t do Figueiredo in before the fight even starts. One final note, the line has been moving in Moreno’s favor, so Figueiredo is slightly overpriced, which should slightly bump down his ownership from where it would otherwise be. Still, he does project to be popular. The odds imply he has a 48% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Moreno is coming off a third round TKO win but only scored 80 DraftKings points in the fight and was left out of winning lineups. The last time he fought Figueiredo, Moreno scored just 49 DraftKings points in a decision loss, which would have still only been good for 79 points had the decision gone his way. The second time he faced Figueiredo, Moreno landed a third round submission and scored a more respectable, but still not great, 97 points. However, the first time they fought, Moreno scored 80 points in a draw, which would have been good for 110 points. That gives us a good idea of his scoring range, which remains pretty wide. He only averages 3.58 SSL/min and 1.7 TDL/15 min. Moreno’s takedown numbers have dropped each time these two have fought (4 > 2 > 1) and now Moreno will have to face Figueiredo in front of Figueiredo’s home Brazil crowd. Figueiredo is 3-0 in the UFC when fighting in Brazil, but those were also his first three UFC fights (2017-2018), so it’s been a while. Moreno also defeated a Brazilian in Jussier Formiga the last time he fought in Brazil, so we’re not placing much importance on where the fight is taking place. We’ve seen Moreno’s DraftKings ownership rise each time these two have squared off (20% > 35% > 51%), and now Moreno is priced at just 8K despite being a slight favorite. That should result in him being one of the highest owned fighters on the slate, despite his often unimpressive ceiling. While he has shown the ability to score well, it may be harder to create unique lineups that include two five-round fighters on this slate, and the most likely fighter to fail to score well in a win is clearly Moreno. When you combine that with his high ownership, this looks like a good fade spot in tournaments, although if Figueiredo looks like death on the scale, we’ll be raising our Moreno exposure to some extent. The fact that Moreno had to move gyms mid-camp due to the Krause investigation is somewhat concerning for his potential as well, but it’s hard to know the exact impact that will have. The odds imply Moreno has a 52% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Jamahal Hill
8th UFC Fight (5-1, NC)Continuing to impress, Hill has landed three straight KO/TKO finishes against Jimmy Crute, Johnny Walker, and Thiago Santos, and hasn’t required the judges since a decision win in his 2020 UFC debut. Following that victory, Hill knocked out Klidson Abreu in the first round, but the results were overturned to a No Contest when Hill tested positive for THC. Following a brief suspension for the failed drug test, Hill returned and knocked out OSP in the second round of his next fight. Hill then suffered the only loss of his career when he had his elbow dislocated in an armbar attempt from Paul Craig early in the first round of a June 2021 match. Hill bounced back with an impressive 48 second R1 KO win over a really dangerous Jimmy Crute and then followed it up with another first round knockout, this time against Johnny Walker, leading up to his recent win over Santos.
In Hill’s last fight, we saw Thiago Santos look to grapple much more than normal. After failing to land a takedown on just two attempts in his previous five fights, Santos shot for 20 takedowns against Hill, landing six of them. Santos struggled to land takedowns early in the fight, going 0 for 4 on his attempts in round one and 1 for 4 in round two, before landing 5 of his 11 attempts in the third round. After a slower start in the first round, things heated up in the second, as the two fighters exchanged big shots on the feet, with Hill taking a striking lead. That prompted Santos’ corner to plead with him that it wasn’t a bar fight following the round, and Santos responded with his best round of grappling in the fight. However, Hill did a good job of returning to his feet every time he got taken down, and Santos was unable to do anything with any of his five takedowns landed in the round. Following the grueling wrestling pace in round three, Santos looked exhausted in round four. Hill smelled blood in the water and began to put it on Santos midway through the round, until Santos basically collapsed from exhaustion and Hill rained down ground and pound until the fight was stopped. The match ended with Hill ahead in significant strikes 89-53 and in total strikes 130-56.
Now 11-1 as a pro, Hill has seven wins by KO (not counting the R1 KO that was overturned to a No Contest) and four decision victories. All but one of those knockouts occurred in the first two rounds, with four ending in round one, two in round two, and his most recent in round four. His only loss went down as a TKO, but it was caused by an armbar submission against Paul Craig. If we include the knockout that was later overturned for pot, 9 of his 13 fights have ended early.
This will be the fourth five-round fight of Hill’s career and third straight in the UFC. The first five-round fight of his career came prior to joining the UFC in 2018 against Dequan Townsend where Hill won by decision. The second five rounder of his career came against Johnny Walker, who Hill knocked out in the first round. Hill then saw the championship rounds for the first time since joining the UFC in his last fight and landed a fourth round TKO.
Overall, Hill is a high-volume striker who averages 6.46 SSL/min while only absorbing 3.51/min. He relies entirely on his striking and has never even attempted a takedown in the UFC. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Hill has been taken down 12 times on 35 attempts (65.7% defense). After getting taken down six times in his UFC debut, Hill only faced two takedown attempts in his next five matches, stuffing both of those. However, he was then taken down six more times in his last match. While he has been taken down half a dozen times by two different opponents, Hill has been a tough guy to hold down and generally does a good job of returning to his feet. While he’s not the thickest guy, he has sneaky power and the ability to finish anyone with a single punch.
Glover Teixeira
23rd UFC Fight (16-6)After losing the Light Heavyweight belt to Jiri Prochazka in Fight of the Year for 2022, Teixeira had a rematch booked for December 10th. However, Prochazka was forced to withdraw due to an injury. The UFC then offered Teixeira Magomed Ankalaev on short notice for the belt but Glover said he would need more time to prepare for that matchup. Instead, he offered to run it back with Jan Blachowicz for the belt. The UFC declined and instead put the belt on the line for the already scheduled matchup between Blachowicz and Ankalaev, which ended in a controversial split decision draw, with no one winning the belt vacated by Prochazka. In an unexpected turn of events, Teixeira will now get another shot at the vacant belt, this time against Jamahal Hill, in Teixeira’s home country of Brazil. In the end, it couldn’t have worked out much better for him.
Prior to his loss to Prochazka, Teixeira won six straight fights, capping the winning streak with a second round submission win over Blachowicz for the Light Heavyweight belt. Five of those six wins came early, but his last four finishes all occurred in the later rounds. The last time Teixeira finished anybody in round one was in 2019 when he submitted Karl Roberson. The only time Teixeira has required the judges in his last seven fights was a 2019 split decision win over Nikita Krylov.
In his last fight, Teixeira was able to take Prochazka down twice in the first round and control him for over half the round, but was unable to find a finish. Prochazka escaped and found himself in top position landing heavy ground and pound as the round ended. That set the stage for the entire crazy back and forth fight, as the two fighters nearly finished each other at multiple points and consistently reversed one another on the mat at half a dozen different points. Teixeira rocked Prochazka early in round five, but in a fight changing sequence Teixeira opted to pull guard and go for a guillotine as opposed to trying to finish things on the feet. Prochazka easily slipped out before he even hit the mat and ended up in top position on the ground. However, Prochazka was content with allowing Teixeira back to his feet soon after. Teixeira landed one final takedown midway through the round and looked like he was on his way to riding out a decision win on the mat. However, Prochazka kicked off the cage to reverse the position and took Teixeira’s back. As Teixeira scrambled around in bottom position, Prochazka tried to put him in a crucifix, which forced Teixeira to roll over and give up his back to escape the position. At that point, Prochazka locked in a no-hooks rear-naked choke to force a tap with 30 seconds left in the round to pull off the stunning submission win. While the scorecards were extremely close in the first four rounds, with one judge having it dead even and the other two having Teixeira ahead (39-37 and 38-37), Teixeira was winning the final round before getting finished and appeared 30 seconds away from getting his hand raised had he not been finished. The fight ended with Prochazka ahead 120-111 in significant strikes, while Teixeira led 159-157 in total strikes. Teixeira landed 5 of his 17 takedown attempts with nearly 10 minutes of control time and two reversals. While Prochazka never attempted a takedown of his own, he had an impressive four reversals with four and a half minutes of control time.
Now 33-8 as a pro, Teixeira has 18 wins by KO, 10 by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has four decision losses. Sixteen of his 22 UFC fights have ended early (13-3), but he’s only been finished once since 2017, which came in his recent submission defeat. While 6 of Teixeira’s 13 UFC early wins occurred in the first round, his last four finishes all ended in the later rounds.
This will be the 10th five-round fight of Teixeira’s UFC career (6-3). Prior to joining the UFC, he also landed a first round submission win in a 2011 first five-round fight. Here are the results from Teixeira’s previous nine UFC five-round fights:
2022 R5 Submission Loss vs. Jiri Prochazka
2021 R2 Submission Win vs. Jan Blachowicz
2020 R3 Submission Win vs. Thiago Santos
2020 R5 TKO Win vs. Anthony Smith
2017 R5 KO Loss vs. Alexander Gustafsson
2016 R1 KO Win vs. Rashad Evans
2015 R3 Submission Win vs. Ovince St. Preux
2014 R5 Decision Loss vs. Jon Jones
2013 R1 TKO Win vs. Ryan Bader
All three of his losses in five-round fights made it to the 5th round with one going the distance, while all six of his five-round wins ended early, with five of those finishes coming in the first three rounds.
Overall, Teixeira has made a career out of surviving early adversity and upsetting the odds. He entered his last four fights as an underdog only to prove the bookmakers wrong in three of those and narrowly losing the other. A 2nd degree BJJ black belt, he’s most dangerous on the mat either landing ground and pound or fishing for submissions, but he’s still a threat on the feet and throws a nice left hook. He tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on and saps their will to fight. Teixeira has a 37% career takedown accuracy, and in his last five fights he’s landed 14 takedowns on 36 attempts, with at least one takedown landed in each of those matches.
Fight Prediction:
Hill will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also 12 years younger than the 43-year-old Teixeira.
This sets up as a striker versus grappler battle and we fully expect Teixeira to be looking to get this fight to the ground early and often. While Hill has done a good job of returning to his feet after getting taken down, we’ve seen him give up six takedowns to two different opponents in his seven UFC appearances. That’s not very encouraging for his chances of keeping this fight upright, but Hill did go on to win both of those previous fights despite giving up half a dozen takedowns in each of them. The real question will be whether or not Teixeira can control Hill on the mat. If he can, we like Teixeira’s chances of finding a mid-round finish on the ground. However, if Hill can return to his feet, he has a decent shot at knocking Teixeira out. It will be interesting to see if the 43-year-old Teixeira considers retiring following the match in front of his home crowd, which would make a lot of sense, especially if he loses. It’s hard to know if that has crept into his mind going into the fight or if it will play any sort of factor, but it’s at least worth considering. While we also generally don’t like siding with aging fighters nearing the end of their careers, we’re still leaning Teixeira in this one based on his grappling advantage. However, no one should be surprised if Hill knocks him out and we agree with the odds that this is close to a coinflip. With that said, we like Teixeira to find a finish on the mat in the middle rounds, most likely by submission in rounds two or three.
Our favorite bet here is “Over 1.5 Rounds” at -116.
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DFS Implications:
Hill’s last four wins have all come by knockout, where he averaged 104 DraftKings points but only topped 103 points once. He’s extremely dangerous on the feet and averages a healthy 6.46 SSL/min, but has never attempted a takedown in the UFC and doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling. That leaves him entirely reliant on striking volume and early knockouts to score well, and he only scored 86 DraftKings points in his recent four round TKO win over Thiago Santos. Keep in mind, Santos is notoriously difficult to score well against and only averages 2.57 SSA/min and also took Hill down six times to slow him down. The only time Hill has required the judges since joining the UFC was a win in his debut where he scored 71 DraftKings points and 81 points on FanDuel, despite also getting taken down six times in that fight. If we extend his numbers in that fight over five rounds, we’d be looking at 98 DraftKings points and 121 points on FanDuel. Overall, he has a solid scoring floor and ceiling but there is always the potential for him to get controlled early on and then land a mid round knockout that would have a tougher time scoring well. With that said, we just saw Teixeira in a wild back and forth brawl in his last fight against another striker in Jiri Prochazka, who scored 123 DraftKings points and 102 points on FanDuel after finishing Teixeira late in the fifth round. That’s encouraging for Hill’s overall scoring potential and at his reasonable DraftKings price tag it will be tougher for him to get priced out of winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Teixeira has been a DFS gold mine throughout his career, and he amazingly still scored 107 DraftKings points and 102 points on FanDuel in his last fight, despite getting submitted late in the fifth round. That was the fourth straight fight he scored 107 or more DraftKings points, averaging 118 over that stretch. He’s shown the ability to put up huge scores even with mid-round finishes, which many fighters struggle to do. The key to his scoring success is his grappling, and whether he’s landing ground and pound or hunting for submissions, he does his best work on the mat. But don’t sleep on the 43-year-old on the feet either, as he’s still dangerous in the striking exchanges. He’s known for getting rocked and recovering, although you would have to think at some point we’ll see a decline in his ability to do so. It’s certainly possible that time has caught up with him as he faces a dangerous striker in Hill who’s 12 years younger than Teixeira. However, if Teixeira’s chin holds up, he’ll have a massive grappling advantage and should be primed to put up another big score if he can pull off another upset. Hill has been taken down six times in two different UFC fights, but has been good about returning to his feet when he does get taken down. That should create the opportunity for Teixeira to chain takedowns together and put up a huge total, and we saw Teixeira attempt 17 takedowns in his last fight. At his cheaper price tag, it’s hard to see Teixeira winning this fight and not ending up in winning DFS lineups. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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