The Sheet

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #12

Alexandr Romanov

8th UFC Fight (5-2)

Continuing his downward spiral, Romanov has now dropped two straight and is coming off the first early loss of his career, which came at the hands of Alexander Volkov in a R1 TKO. Romanov shot for an immediate takedown in the match, but with the help of a blatant fence grab Volkov was able to remain standing. Romanov appeared to then instantly gas out and after another failed takedown attempt just shelled up on the mat as Volkov rained down ground and pound until the fight was stopped. The performance was so terrible you almost have to wonder if Romanov was hurt coming into the fight, especially when you consider he weighed in 25 lb heavier than in his previous match and looked fat as fuck after trimming down in his previous two matches. Prior to that, Romanov suffered his first career loss in a decision against Marcin Tybura. Romanov dominated the first round in that fight, but after landing multiple big energy body slams in the opening five minutes, he gassed out later in the fight and ended up losing a split decision. That loss snapped a 16 fight winning streak and was the first time he had gone the full 15 minutes.

Now 16-2 as a pro, Romanov has six wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and one technical decision win. He has one R1 TKO loss and one decision defeat. Only four of his 18 pro fights have made it to the third round, while 12 ended in round one, and two ended in round two. However, four of his seven UFC fights have made it past the nine minute mark, with two of those making it to the third round and ending in decision/technical decisions. So as his competition level has risen, so has his fight time. Romanov weighed in at 260 lb or above in his first four UFC fights, but then trimmed all the way down to 236.5 lb against Sherman, before checking in at 239.5 lb for his second most recent fight. Despite losing all that weight, he still gassed out in that match, before ballooning all the way back up to 264.5 lb for his last fight and quitting/gassing a minute in.

Overall, Romanov has a freestyle wrestling background and has landed 18 takedowns on 34 attempts (52.9% accuracy) in his seven UFC fights, with at least two takedowns landed in the first six of those. Meanwhile, the only fighter to try and take him down was Juan Espino, who landed four of his five attempts, so Romanov has shown just a 20% takedown defense, albeit in a limited sample size. Romanov has shown a disturbing pattern of quitting in fights once he starts to get tired and has also struggled when going against other wrestlers. All of his dominant wins have come against low-level opponents with poor grappling and he’s faded in the back halves of fights when faced with tougher competition that he can’t put away.

Blagoy Ivanov

8th UFC Fight (3-4)

Coming off his 500th straight low-volume decision, Ivanov recently lost to Marcin Tybura and is now just 1-3 in his last four fights, with his one win coming in a close/questionable decision win over Marcos Rogerio de Lima just before his loss to Tybura. Prior to the win over De lima, Ivanov lost a pair of split decisions to Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis, after winning decisions over Tai Tuivasa and Ben Rothwell. Just before that, Ivanov lost a five-round decision to Junior dos Santos in his 2018 UFC debut and none of his UFC fights have ended early.

Now 19-5 as a pro, Ivanov has six wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and seven decision victories. The only person to ever finish him is Alexander Volkov, who randomly submitted him with a second round rear-naked choke in 2014—one of Volkov’s few career submission wins. Ivanov’s other four losses came in decisions against Junior dos Santos, Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai, and Marcin Tybura. Two of those four decision losses were both split, as was one of his wins. The last time Ivanov finished anybody was in a 2017 R1 TKO and the last time he landed a submission came in a 2015 third round guillotine choke.

Overall, Ivanov is an absolute tank who has shown he can’t be stopped by fists, kicks, or knives. Ivanov was infamously stabbed in the heart in a Bulgarian bar in 2012 and spent three months in a coma if you need any further proof of his toughness. However, he’s now 36 years old and being known for your durability doesn’t translate to exciting fights. He only averages 3.29 SSL/min and 0.8 TDL/15 min. He will look for submissions, but has only come close enough to landing one to be awarded with a single official submission attempt in the UFC. He’s a Judo black belt and a former Combat Sambo World Champion (2008), although you probably wouldn’t guess that if you watched him fight recently. In his seven UFC fights, Ivanov has landed six takedowns on 15 attempts (40% accuracy), while he’s been taken down three times on 10 opponent attempts (70% defense). No one has ever gotten him down more than once in a fight. Ivanov said he’s training with a new team for this fight, so it will be interesting to see if he looks any different.

Fight Prediction:

Romanov will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, in addition to being four years younger than the 36-year-old Ivanov.

It’s always hard to know how fighters will respond to their first early loss, especially when it’s as embarrassingly terrible as Romanov’s recent R1 meltdown against Alexander Volkov. After that collapse, it would make sense for Romanov to come out less aggressively here to try and pace himself. When you combine that with Ivanov’s insane durability, this is the perfect recipe for a longer fight than we’re accustomed to seeing from Romanov. The last time one of Ivanov’s fights ended early was in 2017, before he joined the UFC. While Ivanov has proven to be almost impossible to finish, his offense has been terrible and we’ve also seen him slow down later on in fights at times. So even if Romanov begins to gas once again, Ivanov may still have a tougher time getting him out of there, unless Romanov decides to just completely quit again. Based on Ivanov’s lower output but crazy durability, we wouldn’t be surprised if Romanov goes on to win a decision here, despite previously never winning a 15 minute decision in his career. While that will be our official pick, this is a somewhat volatile fight that will hinge on how Romanov’s cardio and Ivanov’s durability both hold up.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split DEC” at +600.

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DFS Implications:

Romanov has averaged 121 DraftKings points in his four early wins in the UFC, but has yet to show he can go three hard rounds without tiring out or score well in a decision. Now he’s facing an opponent with a grappling background who’s never been finished in the UFC and typically makes for slow paced, terrible fights. It’s hard to know how Romanov will react to his recent disaster of a performance where he basically gassed out and/or quit a minute into the fight and just shelled up on the mat until the ref stopped the action. We could see a more tentative version of him here, especially against an insanely durable opponent like Ivanov, but it’s hard to predict that confidently. He could also stick with his normal ultra aggressive game plan and try to become the first UFC fighter to finish Ivanov, or gas out trying. Ultimately, this is a volatile spot for both of these two, but Ivanov has never seen a fight he couldn’t ruin, but that will be tested here. It will be interesting to see how popular Romanov is after his recent collapse, but historically he’s been a field favorite and in his last four fights, beginning with the most recent, his DraftKings ownership came in at 41%, 40%, 68%, and 54%. We’d be shocked if that number doesn’t drop here, but to what extent is the question. The odds imply Romanov has a 56% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Ivanov has never been one to score well and has fought to eight straight decisions going back to before he joined the UFC. He has averaged just 70 DraftKings points in his three UFC decision wins and only scored 64 points in the most recent of those. While we just saw Romanov gas/quit a minute into his last fight and get finished for the first time in his career, the last time Ivanov finished an opponent was in 2017, prior to joining the UFC. Maybe Romanov will quit mid fight once again and Ivanov will get a finish by default, but it’s hard to rely on that. We’ve also seen Ivanov slow down late in fights, so there’s the potential for both guys to gas out and just hug each other against the cage down the stretch in a low-volume decision where no one scores well. With that said, Romanov’s inability to handle adversity well gives us some reason to play Ivanov in DFS, with the hope that Romanov quits mid fight once again. The odds imply Ivanov has a 44% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Ivana Petrovic

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making her UFC debut with a brief but perfect pro record, Petrovic has been competing under the Ares FC banner in France, where she won the vacant Flyweight belt and then defended it in her last two fights with a pair of late round submissions in the third and fourth rounds. Her last three fights have all made it to round three, after her first three pro fights all ended in under 10 minutes.

Now 6-0 as a pro, Petrovic has three KO/TKO wins, two submissions, and one split decision victory. Her three knockout victories all occurred in her first three pro fights, with two of those opponents fighting for the first and only time.

Overall, Petrovic is a BJJ purple belt and primarily a grappler, but claims she’s been working on her striking. Her striking defense is probably her biggest weakness and she’s been dropped multiple times in her last few fights. She will let her hands go at times, but doesn't appear to throw with a ton of power and is typically just looking to work her way into the clinch. She turned pro just under two years ago and is still pretty green, but should be continuing to improve at this stage in her career. It’s hard to know just how well her skills will translate to the UFC as the level of competition she’s been facing has been so limited up to this point, but it seems far more likely that she’ll underwhelm early in her UFC career, opposed to exceeding expectations.

Luana Carolina

7th UFC Fight (3-3)

Fresh off her second straight loss, Carolina lost a split decision to Joanne Wood where Carolina trailed in significant strikes 100-131 and got taken down twice. Prior to that, Carolina suffered her first career KO loss, which came in the third round against Molly McCann with a violent spinning back elbow. Leading up to those two losses, Carolina won a pair of really close, low-volume decisions, where she entered as a +185 and +200 dog respectively.

Now 8-4 as a pro, Carolina has two wins by TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. However, all three of the finishes occurred in her first four pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0, and 2-1. She’s also been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. Her last five wins have all gone the distance, while two of her three UFC losses ended early. Both of her decision losses were split, as was one of her wins. While Carolina has competed at 125 lb for her entire UFC career, her three fights prior to joining the organization were up at 135 lb and she’s big for the 125 lb division.

Overall, Carolina is a Brazilian Muay Thai striker who hasn’t even attempted a takedown in any of her six UFC fights. While she’s only been taken down by her opponents on 7 of their 32 attempts (78.1% defense), her last four opponents were all able to get her down at least once, with her last three all landing two of their attempts. She’s landed 100 or more significant strikes in two of her six UFC fights, and averages 4.98 SSL/min and 4.43 SSA/min.

Fight Prediction:

Petrovic is listed as having a 2” height and reach advantage.

This is your classic grappler versus striker matchup, but neither of these two have been especially impressive. Carolina’s 78% takedown defense looks pretty good on paper, but her last four opponents have all gotten her down, so it’s hard to rely on that holding up. Because Carolina offers nothing in terms of wrestling and hasn’t finished anybody since 2016, leaving her entirely dependent on outlanding her opponents to win close decisions. Whoever has finished ahead in significant strikes has won in five of her six UFC fights, with the one exception being a low-volume split decision victory for Carolina, where she slightly trailed in significant strikes but led in total strikes. She should hold the striking advantage here, so if she can keep the fight standing for at least two of the three rounds she should be able to win a close decision. Whether or not she’ll be able to keep it standing is a different story, but this seems like the odds should be a bit close based on how inexperienced Petrovic is. We’ll go out on a limb and say Carolina can do enough on the feet, while limiting the amount of time she spends on the mat, to win a close decision

Our favorite bet here is Carolina’s ML at +185.

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DFS Implications:

Petrovic is still very early in her career, as she turned pro just under two years ago and only has six fights under belt. That leaves a lot of uncertainty surrounding her UFC debut and how she’ll handle the pressure of the biggest stage. Her grappling-heavy style will generally score better on DraftKings than on FanDuel, but she’ll likely need a finish to return value on either site at her expensive price tag. While she has finished five of her six opponents, she hasn’t been overly impressive and has looked pretty hittable on the feet. With that said, she’s a decent grappler and if she can get this fight to the ground she’ll have a shot at locking up a submission. However, we’d be surprised to see her really score well with a submission. The odds imply she has a 66% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Carolina came nowhere close to scoring well in her last two decision wins, returning DraftKings scores of just 59 and 65 points. While she was able to put up 102 DraftKings points in her UFC debut decision victory, that came in a dream matchup against Priscila Cachoeira who wants nothing more than to brawl for three rounds. Now Carolina will be going against a grappler who should be looking to tie her up in the clinch and take her to the mat, which will limit Carolina’s ability to land enough striking volume to score well in a decision, and Carolina has never even attempted a takedown in the UFC to boost her scoring. That will leave her reliant on either landing a finish or winning a surprisingly high-volume decision, both of which are unlikely. The one other way Carolina could sneak into winning lineups even with a lower score is if we only see a couple of underdogs on the entire card win, which is always possible on a card like this. With that said, we’re still not especially excited about playing Carolina, even at her lower projected ownership. The odds imply Carolina has a 34% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

Guram Kutateladze

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Kutateladze was announced as the replacement with 15 days to prepare after Jordan Leavitt dropped out. However, Kutateladze had been preparing for a fight back on June 3rd against Jamie Mullarkey, but withdrew early in fight week. That was the second straight time and fourth in his last five booked fights that Kutateladze pulled out and inactivity has been one of his biggest obstacles. It’s been 13 months since he last fought, when he dropped a close split decision to Damir Ismagulov, after winning a close split decision over Mateusz Gamrot in his UFC debut, which most people (including him) thought he lost. That fight against Gamrot was all the way back in October 2020 and to put things in perspective, Gamrot has fought six times since then and climbed into the top 10 of the rankings, while Kutateladze has competed just once. Kutateladze did a great job of stuffing all six of Ismagulov’s takedown attempts in his last fight, while landing one of his own seven attempts. Striking was basically dead even and a bad call by Herb Dean late in the fight stole a position from Kutateladze that could have swung the fight in his favor, as two of the three judges scored the final round for Ismagulov in the split decision. Prior to that loss, Kutateladze had won nine straight fights, with five of those ending in knockouts and four by decision. His last three knockout wins all occurred in the first round.

Now 12-3 as a pro, Kutateladze has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 2015 first round kneebar in his 5th pro fight. His other two losses both ended in decisions. Four of his eight finishes have come in round one, two ended in round two, and the other two occurred in round three. Kutateladze made his pro debut at 170 lb, before moving down to 155 lb.

Overall, Kutateladze is a dangerous Muay Thai striker with cast iron shins and solid defensive wrestling and is a training partner of Khamzat Chimaev. He’s a patient striker, who doesn’t throw a ton of volume (3.83 SSL/min), but makes it count when he does land. In his two UFC fights, he’s landed one of his eight takedown attempts (12.5% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 5 of their 22 attempts (77.3% defense). Both of his past UFC opponents are currently ranked in the top 12 and have never been finished in their careers, but now he’ll finally get a step down in competition.

Elves Brener Oliveira

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Fresh off a close/controversial split decision win over Zubaira Tukhugov in his UFC debut, Brener (or Oliveira depending on where you look), appeared fortunate to walk away with the victory as most people scored the fight for Tukhugov, who was fighting up a weight class, still missed weight, and was cut following the match. Neither fighter landed any of their takedown attempts in the fight, Brener on three attempts and Tukhugov on four. The striking numbers were also basically dead even, so it was a close fight to call. Brener was then scheduled to face a grappler in Jordan Leavitt here, but Leavitt dropped out and Brener was given a much more difficult matchup in Kutateladze. Brener’s last four wins all ended in first round submissions, while his three pro losses all went the distance. One of those losses came against UFC fighter Gabriel Santos.

Now 14-3 as a pro, Brener has one knockout win (R3 2017), 11 submissions, and two decision victories. Eight of those submissions ended in round one, one came in round two, and two occurred in round three. All three of his losses have gone the distance. Brener has spent a lot of his career at 145 lb, but his last few fights have all been at 155 lb.

Overall, Brener is generally looking to take opponents down and beat them up on the mat while looking for submissions. He’s certainly not helpless on the feet, but he has looked pretty hittable in striking exchanges. He trains Charles Oliveira and a bunch of other killers at Chute Boxe, so he should come in prepared to fight, but we still need to see more from him at the UFC level to gauge how far he can go. He definitely hasn’t blown us away with anything he’s done up to this point and failed to land any of his three takedown attempts in his only UFC fight.

Fight Prediction:

Kutateladze will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 72” reach.

Kutateladze couldn’t have asked for tougher opponents in his first two UFC fights, but will now get a massive step down in competition. Some people seem to have forgotten just how violent this man is, while potentially overestimating Brener’s durability based on the fact he’s never been finished. Keep in mind, Brener spent the majority of his career at 145 lb, while Kutateladze is a big 155er who actually made his pro debut at 170 lb. We like Kutateladze to change that with a knockout win here and there’s a good chance it will come in the first round.

Our favorite bet here is “Kutateladze KO” at +125.

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DFS Implications:

Kutateladze is a very dangerous striker with a history of knockouts who also has solid defensive wrestling. He couldn’t have asked for two tougher opponents in his first two UFC fights, as he took on a pair of now ranked opponents in Mateusz Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov, both of whom came in on massive win streaks and having never been finished. Kutateladze will now get a much easier matchup against a lower level opponent who has looked very hittable. Because Kutateladze is priced just behind Brito on this slate, he’ll go largely overlooked and is a great tournament pivot off of the much more popular Brito. Boxscore watchers won’t grasp the true scoring potential that Kutateladze possesses here, as he only notched 56 DraftKings points in the decision win in his debut and just 38 points in his last decision loss. And while Kutateladze likely won’t return value without a finish, he’s got a really good shot at landing a knockout. Kutateladze exudes violence and we’re not sold on Brener being able to survive three rounds with him. Rarely do we get a -700 favorite with a +100 ITD line at sub 30% ownership on DraftKings, and this is an opportunity you won’t want to pass up. The odds imply Kutateladze has an 83% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.

Brener, or Oliveira depending on where you look, has been a submission or bust guy throughout his career, with 11 of his 13 pro wins ending in submissions. He was fortunate to win a split decision in his recent UFC debut, but still only scored 60 DraftKings points in the victory. Even at his dirt cheap price tag, that’s not enough to be useful unless every other dog on the slate loses. Now he’ll be facing a much tougher and more dangerous opponent and Brener will need some sort of hail mary submission to score well. We don’t have any interest in playing him, despite his low ownership. The odds imply Brener has a 17% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Karol Rosa

8th UFC Fight (5-2)

Stepping in on short notice after Macy Chiasson dropped out, Rosa is coming off a low-volume decision loss to Norma Dumont, where Rosa moved up to 145 lb for the first time in the UFC. In a painfully slow paced match, Rosa only landed single digit significant striking totals in the first two rounds, before picking up the pace some in round three and knocking Dumont down late in the fight. However, it was too little, too late and Dumont had already won the first two rounds to get her hand raised by the judges. It was surprising to see Rosa move up a weight class, considering she was coming off a win and had only lost once in six Octagon appearances at 135 lb. Her last win ended in a majority decision win over an aging Lina Lansberg, after Rosa suffered her only other UFC loss in a smothering decision defeat against Sara McMann. Prior to that loss, Rosa had won six straight fights after getting submitted by Melissa Gatto before they joined the UFC. All seven of Rosa’s UFC fights have gone the distance and the last time she finished an opponent was in a 2019 R3 TKO just before joining the organization.

Now 16-5 as a pro, Rosa has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and 10 decision victories. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, and has three decision losses. Both of her submission losses came in 2018, one of those was against Melissa Gatto, who’s now in the UFC, and the other was against Larissa Pacheco, who had just been released by the UFC. While all seven of Rosa’s UFC fights have gone the distance, her seven fights just before joining the UFC all ended early (5-2). However, only two of her 21 pro fights ended in the first round and only one of her last 18.

Overall, Rosa has historically been a high-volume striker (5.58 SSL/min), although you wouldn’t guess it by watching her last match. She generally relies on wearing down her opponents with her pace, opposed to overwhelming them with power. Her last three early finishes all came in the third round (2018, 2019 & 2019), and the one prior to that was a corner stoppage following the second round. While Rosa has shown the ability to wrestle offensively, she really struggled with her defensive wrestling against a powerful McMann in her second most recent loss and then struggled with being controlled along the fence in her last defeat. In her seven UFC fights, Rosa has landed 10 of her 22 takedown attempts (45.5% accuracy), while her opponents have gotten her down on 6 of their 19 attempts (68.4% defense). The only fighter to get her down more than once was former Olympic wrestler Sara McMann, who landed four takedowns on six attempts in a decision win over Rosa.

Yana Santos

9th UFC Fight (4-4)

Santos had been scheduled to face Macy Chiasson here, but Chiasson dropped out and Rosa was announced as the replacement two weeks out. Santos is coming off a smothering decision loss to Holly Holm, where Holm took Santos down four times and controlled her for nearly 10 minutes. Now Santos is moving up to 145 lb, where she last competed in her 2018 UFC debut and got finished by Cris Cyborg in the first round. Santos had a baby just before her recent loss to Holm, after she got knocked out by Irene Aldana in the first round of her previous fight. Prior to the pair of losses, Santos had won a pair of clinch/grappling-heavy decisions, after getting finished with ground and pound in the third round of a 2019 match against Aspen Ladd. She also got finished with ground and pound in the first round of her 2018 UFC debut against Cris Cyborg, so it’s been an ongoing weakness for her. Her last win came in a close/controversial February 2021 decision against Ketlen Vieira, who took Santos down three times and controlled her for eight and a half minutes, but didn’t land many strikes on the mat and the judges gave the fight to Santos, who never stopped landing rabbit punches while being controlled.

Now 14-7 as a pro, Santos has seven wins by TKO, one by submission, and six decision victories. All eight of her early wins came in her first 11 pro fights from 2009 to 2016 and she doesn’t have any finishes in the UFC or even in her Invicta days just before that—although her last finish did come against a UFC fighter in Wu Yanan, back in 2016. Her first seven early wins ended in round one, while she finished Yanan 32 seconds into round two. Her last five wins have all ended in decisions. However, five of her last six losses ended early, with three knockouts and two submissions. Three of those ended in round one, one came in round two, and the other was in round three. Her other two losses went the distance, but she’s won six of the last seven decisions she’s been to. Kunitskaya started her pro career at 145 lb and even once fought as high as 154 lb. However, she had been competing at 135 lb since 2016, but will now be moving back up to 145 lb.

Overall, Santos typically comes in with the game plan of controlling opponents along the fence and making fights ugly. In her four UFC wins, she finished with control time totals of 5:09, 13:16, 2:51, and 9:53, while in her four losses, she finished with control time totals of 1:19, 0:11, 3:52, 2:21. She’s been prone to getting knocked down, taken down, and finished with ground and pound on the mat. She’s been taken down 11 times on 20 opponent attempts (45% defense), and all but one of the opponents to try and take her down have been successful. On the other side of things, Santos has landed 8 of her 15 takedown attempts (53.3% accuracy), but has only landed one takedown in her last five fights, and failed to attempt a takedown in four of those matches. Santos only averages 3.82 SSL/min, and hasn’t landed more than 47 significant strikes in any of her last five matches.

Fight Prediction:

Santos will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while Rosa is five years younger than the 33-year-old Santos.

Both of these two are Bantamweights competing up at Featherweight, which should be more or less of a wash when you factor in size and weight class. Santos wins fights by holding opponents up against the cage and grinding out boring decision wins. We just saw Rosa struggle with getting controlled against the fence in her last fight, which gives Santos the potential to find some success in executing her game plan, but Dumont looks stronger in those clinch exchanges than Santos. We’ve seen Rosa execute wrestling heavy game plans in the right matchup in the past, and Santos has been taken down multiple times in three of her last five fights, while also being very prone to getting finished through ground and pound on the mat. While Rosa hasn’t finished anybody yet in the UFC, this is one of her more favorable matchups to get a stoppage. Rosa finally came to life in the third round of her last fight, and it would be disappointing to see her sleep walk through the first two rounds once again here. So perhaps she can carry the momentum from that third round into this fight and come out with a more inspiring start. We expect to see large amounts of control time in the fight, whether it be from Santos pushing Rosa up against the cage or Rosa taking Santos down and holding top position on the mat, and whoever wins the control time battle will likely win the fight. The most likely outcome is a Rosa decision win, but she also has a decent shot at finding a late round finish on the mat. Either way, we’re taking Rosa to win this one.

Our favorite bet here is “Karol Rosa R2 or R3 KO” at +1100.

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DFS Implications:

Rosa has impressively averaged 105 DraftKings points in her five UFC wins, with at least 89 points in all of those and 105 or more in four of them. However, she’s lost two of her last three fights and struggled with getting controlled in both of those losses. Now she’s squaring off against an opponent who wants nothing more than to hold her up against the cage for 15 minutes. That will make it tough for Rosa to put up a big striking total here, however, we could see Rosa rely more on her wrestling and Santos has just a 45% takedown defense. Santos has also been very prone to getting finished, specifically by ground and pound. While Rosa has never finished anybody in the UFC, if she was ever going to get anybody out of there early this would be as good a spot as any. We don’t see Rosa scoring well on FanDuel without a finish, but she could still be useful on DraftKings in a wrestling-heavy decision win and she scored 109 DraftKings points against Joselyne Edwards in a fight Rosa dominated on the ground. One potential concern for Rosa is that she took this fight on short notice, which could affect her cardio late in the fight depending on how hard she was training when she accepted the match. The odds imply she has a 61% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

Santos generally accrues large amounts of control time and clinch strikes in her wins, which has allowed her to score well on DraftKings in those victories, but not on FanDuel. She averaged 101 DraftKings points in her four UFC decision wins, scoring anywhere from 82 to 119 points and showing both a solid floor and ceiling. However, she’s never finished anybody in the UFC and just had a baby before getting dominated in her last fight. Now she’s moving up to 145 lb for the first time since her 2018 UFC debut where she got knocked out in the first round, and it remains to be seen how she’ll look at the new weight class. She easily could be 1-4 in her last five fights, had a close decision against Ketlen Vieira not gone her way. In the end, Santos is as straightforward as it gets. She wins when she can control her opponents along the fence for extended periods of time and loses when she can’t. If she wins, she’ll have a good shot at serving as a value play with upside on DraftKings, but we have no interest in playing her on FanDuel. It will be interesting to see if she looks better in her second fight back from giving birth or if her decline continues. The odds imply Santos has a 39% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Joanderson Brito

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Brito had been set to face Khusein Askhabov here, but Askhabov dropped out and Wilson was announced as the replacement 10 days out. Coming off his second straight first round finish, Brito’s only loss in his last 15 fights came in a decision in his 2022 UFC debut against Bill Algeo. He bounced back with a first round TKO win over a really tough Andre Fili and then submitted Lucas Alexander in the first round of his last fight. Brito punched his ticket to the UFC with a technical decision win over Diego Lopes on DWCS in 2021, after violently knocking out Jose Mariscal in just 44 seconds, and two of Brito’s last three finishes came in 44 seconds or less.

Now 14-3-1 as a pro, Brito has gone 13-1-1 in his last 15 fights after starting off his career at 1-2 back in 2013. He has six wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and two decision victories. Nine of his 12 finishes have occurred in 122 seconds or less, while he also has two second round finishes, and another in round three. He was finished by his opponents twice in the first round in his first three pro fights, once by TKO and another by submission, with his only other career loss coming by decision in his UFC debut. Brito has primarily competed at 145 lb and 155 lb in the past, but did fight down at 135 lb early in his career. He’s remained at 145 lb since 2019, which is where it appears he’ll stay.

Overall, Brito is a blitzing wild man who throws violent strikes with fight-ending intentions and constantly looks for takedowns. He’ll look for both guillotines and rear-naked chokes in addition to trying to finish opponents with haymakers. He’s dangerous in a variety of ways, but he lacks much finesse and simply tries to bull rush and overpower his opponents. Brito uses so much energy early on in fights that it’s tougher for him to remain competitive later on in matches. Between his DWCS appearance and his three UFC fights, Brito has landed 7 of his 10 takedown attempts (70% accuracy), while getting taken down on both of the attempts against him (0% defense).

Westin Wilson

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Stepping into his UFC debut on short notice, Wilson is one of the rare fighters to lose by Gogoplata on the regional scene and still get a shot in the big show. His last 11 fights all ended in the first round (9-2) and he’s only been to two decisions in 23 pro bouts. He’s coming off three straight first round submission wins, after getting folded like a cheap lawn chair in the first round of a July 2022 match.

Now 16-7 as a pro, Wilson has five wins by KO/TKO and 11 submission victories. He’s also been knocked out once, submitted four times, and lost both of the decisions he’s been to (2015 & 2019). Four of his five early losses ended in round one, with the other ending in round two. Eighteen of his last 19 fights have ended early and 18 of his 23 pro fights ended in the first round, with three more ending in round two. The last time he won a fight that made it out of the first round was in 2017 and he’s never won a match that made it past the 6:04 mark. Wilson has fought anywhere from 135 lb to 175 lb, but most of his fights have been around 145 lb. He’s exclusively been fighting low-level opponents and all of his wins should be taken with a grain of salt.

Overall, Wilson is a low level fighter, but is a BJJ brown belt and trains with Stephen Thompson so at least has some good fighters around him. Similar to Thompson, Wilson has a karate style stance, but still relies mostly on his grappling to win matches. His striking defense is near non-existent and he’s definitely the type of guy that protects his hands with his face. In a recent interview everytime Wilson opened his mouth a red flag flew out, as he talked about fighting as a hobby and how his full time job is in the software field. He said he would actually trade his services with fighting promotions to get himself on cards. He’s already 34 years old and likely is who he is at this stage in his career. While Twitter can be a ruthless arena, there’s a large contingent of people on there that appear genuinely concerned for this man’s safety as the UFC sends him to his slaughter in this kamikaze matchup.

Fight Prediction:

Wilson will have a 5” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while Brito is six years younger than the 34-year-old Wilson.

During the COVID era we would get more sacrificial matchups like this where a fighter with no business of being in the UFC would step in on short notice, despite having absolutely no chance to win. However, they’ve become a little more rare these days, at least up until now. Wilson’s record may be deceiving, and he has some grappling skills, but his striking defense and chin are lawsuits waiting to happen and we’d be surprised to see him survive more than a handful of punches from Brito. He’s also never faced a grappler like Brito, so a quick submission victory for Brito is very much in play as well. While Wilson will have a massive size advantage, we’re not convinced that will matter in the slightest and we like Brito to finish this fight in the first two minutes, with everyone left wondering why Wilson was even given this opportunity in the first place.

Our favorite bet here is “Under 0.5 Rounds” at +190.

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DFS Implications:

Brito is coming off back-to-back first round finishes, which were good for 105 and 131 DraftKings points. After facing three fairly tough opponents so far in the UFC, Brito is now getting one of the worst fighters to grace the roster this year. The odds tell you everything you need to know in this one and the only way this would be a close fight is if the UFC gave Wilson a bat. All of this is common knowledge, so the only question is whether or not Brito scores enough to end up in tournament winning lineups as the most expensive fighter on the card, and also the highest owned. His most recent win was good for 105 DraftKings points, but priced at $9,400 in that fight he still failed to crack winning lineups on an 11 fight card. Now he’s slightly more expensive and if the fight makes it out of the first minute there are definitely ways he lands a first round finish but still gets priced out of the optimal. When you factor in his skyhigh ownership, there’s certainly merit in looking for ways he doesn’t end up in winning lineups, but you’ll likely be dealing with a razor thin margin and it will be much harder to leave large amounts of salary on the table in lineups that don’t include him. He has the highest floor of any fighter on the card and also a massive ceiling, especially when you consider he has nine career finishes in 122 seconds or less and four in under a minute. The Quick Win Bonus is squarely in play for him, which is what allowed him to put up a slate-breaking 131 DraftKings points in his second most recent finish. The odds imply Brito has an 89% chance to win, a 76% chance to land a finish, and a 55% chance it comes in round one.

Westin Wilson sounds like what you would name a line of toy guns, which is appropriate considering this guy is a fake UFC fighter. He’s done absolutely nothing to show us he can be competitive against legitimate competition, and his striking defense, or lack thereof, is deeply concerning for his outlook and safety moving forward. He looks like a broken jaw waiting to happen and the UFC is doing him no favors with this matchup. While Wilson has double digit submissions on his record, he’ll also be at risk of getting submitted in this fight and he holds no advantages outside of his height. We expect him to get finished quickly and despite his bottom-of-the-barrel ownership, we have no interest in playing him. The odds imply he has an 11% chance to win (generous), a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Rinat Fakhretdinov

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Coming off his second straight smothering decision win in two UFC appearances, Fakhretdinov has won 19 straight fights dating back to 2013. His most recent victory came against Bryan Battle, who was making his second UFC appearance at 170 lb, after dropping down from 185 lb and took the fight on just 15 days’ notice after Michael Morales dropped out. Fakhretdinov completely dominated the fight as he took Battle down seven times on nine attempts with over 14 minutes of control time, while finishing ahead in significant strikes 43-3 and in total strikes 102-25. Prior to that, Fakhretdinov won another wrestling-heavy decision in his UFC debut over Andreas Michailidis, where he landed 5 of his 10 takedown attempts with 13 minutes of control time. Similarly to Battle, Michailidis had also recently moved down from 185 lb. Looking back one fight further, Fakhretdinov secured his spot on the UFC roster with a violent 55 second R1 KO win over former UFC fighter Eric Spicely in January 2021.

Now 20-1 as a pro, Fakhretdinov has 11 wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and four decision victories. His lone loss came in a two-round decision in 2013 in his second pro fight. All 16 of his finishes have come in the first two rounds, including 12 in round one and 4 in round two. Six of his last eight finishes have come by KO/TKO, while his last four submission wins have all ended in guillotines. His early career record was really padded and he hasn’t faced much in terms of competition, so his impressive record should be taken with a grain of salt. Fakhretdinov started his career at 185 lb before dropping down to 170 lb when he joined the UFC. He also had one 170 lb fight in 2018 that he won by R1 TKO, but the vast majority of his career has been spent at 185 lb.

Overall, Fakhretdinov is a relentless Russian wrestler who has been dominating everyone on the mat, but has yet to face any high-level competition. He’s only been to the third round four times in 21 pro fights, but three of his last four fights have gone the distance. He’s primarily looking for control and ground and pound on the mat, but will lock up a guillotine when the opportunity presents itself, which is how he finished four of his five submission wins. In his two UFC fights, he’s landed 12 of his 19 takedown attempts (63.2% accuracy), while defending all three of the attempts against him (100% defense). We haven’t seen him have to face any adversity recently, so we still don’t know how he’ll respond when he does, but now he’ll face a big step up in competition as he goes against a fellow wrestler for the first time in the UFC.

Kevin Lee

19th UFC Fight (11-7)

Making his return to the UFC 23 months after he last competed with the organization, Lee has only fought once since the UFC cut him. Following his release, he signed with Eagle FC and took on a washed up Diego Sanchez in March 2022. Unfortunately for Lee, he suffered a knee injury just seconds into that fight that appeared to leave him compromised for the remainder of the match. While he fought through the injury and was still able to win a decision, it’s hard to take much away from the fight knowing he was basically competing on one leg. He’s had knee issues dating back to his fight against Charles Oliveira in March 2020, after which he had ACL surgery to both of his knees. Fortunately for Lee, he was able to forgo surgery this time around and was able to rehab the injury to get back to fighting shape. Nevertheless, it’s now been 16 months since he fought Sanchez and we’ve yet to see how he looks after injuring his knees in two of his last three fights. The last time we saw Lee in the UFC Octagon was in an August 2021 decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez, after he got submitted in the third round by Oliveira. The last time Lee won a UFC fight was in 2019 when he knocked out Gregor Gillespie in the first round, which is his only UFC win since 2018. Prior to knocking out Gillespie, Lee got submitted in the fourth round of a 2019 match against Rafael dos Anjos, after losing a five-round decision to Al Iaquinta. Following the loss to Rodriguez, Lee got suspended when he tested positive for Adderall, as he had not applied for a therapeutic-use exemption for the ADHD drug. That likely played a role in why the UFC opted to release Lee despite having multiple fights left on his contract.

Now 19-7 as a pro, Lee has three wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and eight decision victories. While his recent win outside of the UFC went the distance after Lee suffered the knee injury, his last six UFC wins all ended early, with five of those finishes coming in the first two rounds and another in round five. His last UFC decision win was all the way back in 2016. Lee has been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has three decision losses. The only knockout loss of his career came in the first round of a 2015 fight against Leonardo Santos, while his three submission losses came against Charles Oliveira (R3 2020), Rafael dos Anjos (R4 2019), and Tony Ferguson (R3 2017). He also has three decision losses on his record, with two of those coming against Al Iaquinta. Lee has spent almost his entire career at 155 lb and this will only be his third 170 lb fight, with him losing the previous two in a 2019 R4 submission to Rafael dos Anjos and a 2021 decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez. His lone fight in Eagle FC was at 165 lb, which appears perfectly suited for a tweener like Lee.

Overall, Lee has a wrestling background and does his best work on the mat, whether it’s hunting for submissions or laying down heavy ground and pound. In his 18 UFC fights, Lee has landed 46 of his 106 takedown attempts (43.4% accuracy), while his opponents have only gotten him down on 10 of their 40 attempts (75% defense). Lee has landed at least one takedown in 11 of his last 12 fights, with the one exception being his R1 KO win over Gregor Gillespie, where the fight ended before Lee ever needed to attempt a takedown. The only fighter to take Lee down in his last 11 matches was Rafael Dos Anjos, who took Lee down four times on seven attempts. That’s also notably the only 170 lb fighter to try and take Lee down, as Daniel Rodriguez unsurprisingly never attempted a takedown in Lee’s only other 170 lb fight. Lee looked to be tiring quickly in the third round of that fight against Dos Anjos, which is when Dos Anjos began finding the most grappling success, and Lee’s conditioning and cardio are one concern coming into this next fight. Lee joined the UFC in 2014 when he was just 21, and despite having 18 fights with the organization and now being away from the UFC for two years, he’s still somehow just 30 years old.

Fight Prediction:

Fakhretdinov will have a 3” height advantage, but Lee will have a 3” reach advantage.

This is a really interesting matchup between two wrestlers that could go a lot of ways. On one side of things, we have Lee, who has way more high-level experience than Fakhretdinov, but has also spent almost his entire career at 155 lb. Lee has also suffered knee injuries in two of his last three fights, is just 1-4 in his last five UFC fights, hasn’t won a UFC fight since 2019, has never won a match at 170 lb, and is coming off a 16 month layoff. On the other side of things, we have a larger but less proven fighter in Fakhretdinov, who has spent almost his entire career at 185 lb and has won 19 straight fights. It’s hard enough to predict outcomes when two solid wrestlers square off, even before we factor in all of the uncertainty on Lee’s side of things. What we do know is that Fakhretdinov is the larger fighter who’s accustomed to ragdolling 185 lb opponents, while Lee has only found success in his career at 155 lb and is 0-2 at 170 lb.. We also know that it’s been almost four years since Lee won a UFC fight and now he’s coming off his second knee injury in his last three fights. None of that is encouraging for Lee’s chances, but we also haven’t seen Fakhretdinov tested against anyone as talented as Lee, nor has Fakhretdinov been tested on the feet yet in the UFC. That leaves some uncertainty on both sides and we’re really interested in seeing how this one plays out, but we’ll side with the larger, more active fighter in Fakhretdinov, who has all the momentum on his side without the knee injury concerns of Lee. Lee has been somewhat chinny and also gets submitted a fair amount in the later rounds, while Fakhretdinov has won decisions in three of his last four fights. That all makes it tougher to predict the winning method in this one, but we’ll take Fakhretdinov by decision once again, as all of his finishes have come in the first two rounds, while Lee has looked the most vulnerable late in fights. With that said, it’s a tricky spot to bet props on Fakhretdinov’s side of things.

Our favorite bet here is “FDGTD” at +100.

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DFS Implications:

Fakhretdinov absolutely dominated his last two opponents on the mat, returning DraftKings scores of 130 and 109 in the pair of decision wins. He was also still able to score 100 points on FanDuel in the most recent of those wins, but only totaled 77 FanDuel points in the previous victory. His wrestling-heavy is definitely built more for DraftKings, whereas he needs to put up a huge takedown total or land a finish to be useful on FanDuel. Now he’s squaring off against a fellow wrestler in Kevin Lee who has a solid 75% takedown defense, and far more UFC experience, so it will be fascinating to see if Fakhretdinov can continue to find the same level of wrestling success. He’s been so dominant in his fights that we haven’t seen him have to deal with any adversity, which makes it harder to know how he’ll handle any when it eventually comes. The chances of Fakhretdinov completely dominating this fight on the ground are lower than in his last two fights, but it’s also possible that his size and power will simply be too much for Lee to handle. We’ve seen Lee wear down from wrestling exchanges in the past, and Fakhretdinov certainly puts a pace on his opponents. So even if the first half of the fight is close, Fakhretdinov could take over down the stretch, which could still be enough for him to score decently if he gets active enough on the mat. There’s also always the potential that Lee can keep the fight standing or land takedowns of his own, both of which would leave Fakhretdinov more reliant on landing a finish to score well. That makes this a more volatile matchup with a wider range of scoring outcomes, but both fighters project to be fairly popular. The odds imply Fakhretdinov has a 63% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Lee has averaged 107 DraftKings points in his 11 UFC wins, scoring 87 or more in 10 of those and 101+ points in seven of them. However, his last UFC win was all the way back in 2019 and he’s just 1-4 in his last five UFC matches. Also, all of his success has been at 155 lb, while he’s now fighting at 170 lb, where he’s gone 0-2. In addition to that, he’s coming off his second knee injury in his last three fights and is coming off a 16 month layoff. Despite all of that uncertainty, he projects to be one of the highest owned underdogs on the card. That will make it much tougher to create unique lineups that include him, but creates an obvious leverage opportunity by fading him in tournaments. It’s definitely not a comfortable fade based on his past scoring success, but on smaller slates you have to take some risks if you want to reduce splits. Ultimately, this is a very volatile matchup and both fighters have a really wide range of potential scoring outcomes, with the potential for either guy to dominate the other or for it to turn into more of a wrestling stalemate. The odds imply Lee has a 37% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Brunno Ferreira

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Ferreira had been scheduled to face Abdul Razak Alhassan here, but Alhassan dropped out and Ruziboev stepped in a week and a half before the fight. Ferreira just landed a first round knockout in his UFC debut against Gregory Rodrigues and has finished all 10 of his pro opponents in under seven minutes. His last four wins have all come in round one and he’s only seen the second round twice in his career, with those two finds ending early in round two. He’s knocked out his last five opponents, but landed a pair of submissions just before that.

Now 10-0 as a pro, Ferreira has seven wins by KO/TKO, and three submissions. Five of his seven knockouts ended in round one, with the other two ending in the opening 68 seconds of round two. All three of his submission wins ended in round one and only one of his last seven fights made it to the second round.

Overall, Ferreira is a stocky Brazilian powerhouse with a judo background. He’s often looking to get fights to the ground, where he’ll go to work with heavy ground and pound while also looking for occasional submissions. However, he failed to land a takedown on just two attempts between his recent UFC debut and his DWCS match, so his ground game may be getting overlooked somewhat. He also defended the only takedown attempted against him in those two matches, so his UFC stats don’t show any grappling. We’ve yet to see him face much adversity in his career, and considering his longest MMA fight ended 78 seconds into round two, we have no idea what his cardio will look like in a longer fight. He’s constantly switching stances, which makes it harder for his opponents to get a read on him, and after facing a tough opponent in his own short notice UFC debut, now he’ll be on the other side of that equation, as he faces a step down in competition.

Nursulton Ruziboev

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut on short notice, Ruziboev was announced as the replacement for Abdul Razak Alhassan just 10 days before this event. It’s also been 15 months since he last competed, but he finished his last eight opponents in the first round. The last time he was in a fight that even made it to the four minute mark was in a 2019 decision loss, where he spent extended periods of time on his back eating ground and pound. He’s been taken down by most of his opponents since then, but has been able to land multiple submissions off his back. Three of his last four wins have come by submission, with two of those ending in kimuras and one by armbar. He looks for kimuras as often as most fighters look to land jabs.

Now 34-8-2 as a pro, Ruziboev has a silly number of fights for a guy still in his 20s. He has 12 wins by KO/TKO, 20 submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has six decision losses. His lone KO loss came in the second round of a 2014 fight in what was just his third pro appearance, while his one submission defeat came in the second round of a 2016 fight. He has as many draws as decision wins on his record and has only won two of the 10 decisions he’s been to. Ruziboev has fought anywhere from 155 lb to 195 lb, but most of his career has been split between 170 lb and 185 lb. He’s fought a lot of suspect competition and his last win came against an opponent with a 12-12 pro record.

Overall, Ruziboev is a tall, rangy BJJ purple belt from Uzbekistan, who’s now training in Philadelphia at Renzo Gracie Philly with several other grappling-heavy UFC fighters. He loves looking for kimuras and can throw up quick armbars, and has also done a good job of reversing positions on the ground, however, his takedown defense is non-existent. He’s got long skinny legs that look prone to getting chewed up, although the majority of his fights are spent on the mat. While he’s been able to lock up kimuras against numerous low-level opponents, that’s rarely an effective finishing method at the UFC level. Considering he’s still just 29 years old and hasn’t fought in over a year, while training with several UFC grapplers in Philadelphia, perhaps Ruziboev can show some improvements to his game here and look better than he has in the past.

Fight Prediction:

Ruziboev will have a 6” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.

What Ferreira lacks in height, he makes up for in bullish strength, which he uses effectively both on the feet and the mat. While we haven’t seen any of his grappling in his last two fights, he was typically looking to get opponents down and finish them on the ground prior to that on the regional scene. Now he’s facing an opponent whose idea of defending a takedown is to go for a kimura. That should make it easy for Ferreira to get this fight to the ground if he so chooses, he’ll just need to stay mindful of his arm positioning. We like his chances of finding a ground and pound finish in the first round and a half of this fight.

Our favorite bet here is “Ferreira KO” at -110.

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DFS Implications:

Ferreira was put in a really tough spot in his recent UFC debut as he stepped up on short notice and faced a dangerous opponent in Gregory Rodrigues. Despite the unfavorable circumstances, Ferreira landed a first round knockout that was good for 109 DraftKings points, showing that his 100% finishing rate on the regional scene could translate to the UFC. All 10 of his career wins have come in under seven minutes, with eight of those ending in round one. That shows massive scoring potential, but also leaves some questions surrounding his cardio if he ever gets extended in a fight. He’s facing a debuting opponent who stepped up on short notice, so this looks like a favorable spot for Ferreira, although Ruziboev has 44 pro fights and has only been finished twice, with both of those finishes coming early in his career (2014 & 2016). With that said, most of those fights were against very dubious competition. Ferreira will be a sizeable height and reach disadvantage, although he should be used to that at this point. His recent scoring explosion combined with his reasonable price tag will drive his ownership up, which isn’t ideal for tournaments, but we still like his chances of finding another finish and ending up in winning lineups. The odds imply Ferreira has a 66% chance to win, a 55% chance to land a finish, and a 40% chance it comes in round one.

Ruziboev is making his short notice UFC debut against a dangerous finisher in Ferreira, but has landed eight straight first round finishes of his own. He’ll also have a massive height and reach advantage, as well as more pro experience and potentially better cardio. His biggest concern is his non-existent takedown defense and Ferreira has historically been looking to take opponents down and beat them up on the mat, although failed to take that approach in either of his last two matches as he knocked opponents out on the feet instead. Ruziboev has relied heavily on kimura attempts to defend takedowns, which may have been successful against lower level opponents on the regional scene, but is not a long term winning strategy at the UFC level. He has been training at Renzo Gracie Philly and hasn’t competed in 15 months so maybe he’s added some new wrinkles to his game. We also don’t know what Ferreira’s cardio will look like if Ruziboev can simply survive the opening round, as Ferreira has never been past the 6:08 mark in a match. So there’s enough uncertainty to want to have exposure to both sides of this one, even if we haven’t been overly impressed by what we’ve seen from Ruziboev in the past. The odds imply Ruziboev has a 34% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Ismael Bonfim

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Coming off a highlight reel second round knockout win in his UFC debut against Terrance McKinney, Bonfim has won 13 straight fights since getting submitted by Renato Carneiro in the first round of a 2014 match when Bonfim was just 18 years old compared to Carneiro being 25. Bonfim was able to stuff both of McKinney’s takedown attempts, while landing one takedown of his own and outlanding McKinney 34-14 in significant strikes before finishing him with a flying knee midway through round two. Prior to that, Bonfim had gone the distance in three straight fights after finishing seven straight opponents in the first two rounds just before that. The most recent of those three decision wins came on DWCS, where Bonfim got to fight alongside his brother, with the two also making their UFC debuts on the same card.

Now 19-3 as a pro, Bonfim has nine wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and six decision victories. Of his 13 finishes, six came in round one, five ended in round two, and two occurred in round three. He’s been submitted in the first round in all three of his losses, but two of those occurred in his first three pro fights back in 2011 when he was just 15 years old and the other was in 2014 when he was 18 and facing a really dangerous Renato Moicano.

Overall, Bonfim is a dangerous striker and also a BJJ black belt. Between his DWCS appearance and his UFC debut, he landed two of his seven takedown attempts (28.6% accuracy), while defending all four of the takedowns against him (100% defense). He’s a highly skilled and somewhat patient striker and will mix in occasional takedown attempts, but largely relies on his boxing to win fights. He’s not the tallest guy at just 5’8” which will be one obstacle he’ll need to overcome at the UFC level as he goes up against taller and longer opponents, but that wasn’t a problem for him in his debut when he was giving up 2” of size to Terrance McKinney. Bonfim is still just 27 years old and both he and his brother look like interesting prospects to keep an eye on moving forward.

Benoit Saint Denis

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Saint Denis has finished his last two opponents in the second round, after losing a decision to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in his UFC debut. That’s the only loss of Saint Denis’ career, and it took place at 170 lb. He then dropped down to 155 lb for his last two fights, where he submitted Niklas Stolze 92 seconds into the second round after nearly locking up a choke in the closing seconds of round one, and then knocked out a short notice debuter in Gabriel Miranda 16 seconds into round two after also nearly finishing him late in round one. His debut loss should have been stopped by all accounts in the second round as Saint Denis was getting mauled by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, but the referee had other ideas. It was such a horribly officiated fight that the commission actually pulled the ref from his remaining duties on the card. Prior to joining the UFC, Saint Denis had never lost a fight or required the judges, and had only once even been to the third round.

Now 10-1 as a pro, Saint Denis has two wins by TKO and eight submissions. Both of his TKO wins ended in round two, while he has five first round submissions, two in round two, and one in round three. Four of his last five early wins ended in round two. He’s never been finished himself, with his only loss coming in a decision in his 2021 UFC debut. Saint Denis has competed anywhere from 145 lb to 185 lb, but was primarily fighting at 165 lb and 170 lb before dropping down to 155 lb after his UFC debut at 170 lb.

Overall, Saint Denis is primarily a grappler and looks to get opponents to the mat early and often, where he’ll aggressively hunt for submissions. He started training in Judo as a kid, where he eventually earned his black belt, and was also in the French Special Forces. In addition to his Judo background, he’s a BJJ brown belt. He showed insane toughness and durability in his UFC debut, but his striking defense looks poor and relying on your toughness to survive is not the best long term solution. In his three UFC fights, Saint Denis has landed 6 takedowns on 20 attempts (30% accuracy), while his opponents have only gotten him down once on seven attempts (85.7% defense).

Fight Prediction:

Saint Denis will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

Saint Denis will be looking to get this fight to the ground, but that won’t be easy to do as Bonfim is a BJJ black belt with a solid takedown defense. On the feet, Bonfim is a much more technical striker, with a far superior striking defense and should be able to pick Saint Denis apart. And while Saint Denis showed insane toughness and heart to survive to see the judges in his UFC debut, most refs would have stopped that fight in the second round and he really should have one TKO loss on his record. So if Bonfim can keep the fight standing, he has a decent shot at finding a finish, although his patience combined with Saint Denis’ toughness could result in this going the distance. Saint Denis has a 100% finishing rate and lost the only decision he’s ever been to and is likely reliant on locking up a submission on the ground to pull off the upset. While Bonfim’s three submission defeats may make that seem very possible, keep in mind all of those losses occurred when Bonfim was a teenager and his grappling has improved a lot since then. It won’t be surprising if Saint Denis is able to land a takedown or two based on how aggressive he is with his grappling, but we’re betting that Bonfim will be able to survive the ground and do enough on the feet to get his hand raised. A knockout is definitely possible but we’re taking Bonfim by decision here.

Our favorite bet here is “Bonfim DEC” at +210.

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DFS Implications:

Bonfim just knocked out field-favorite Terrance McKinney in the second round, scoring 101 DraftKings points and likely walking away with some of the hype that had previously belonged to McKinney. Just keep in mind, McKinney has like three minutes of cardio, so it’s hard to know how much that played a factor into that finish. Bonfim had won three straight decisions leading up to that win, so it’s not like he had been ending every fight early. While he will look to mix in occasional takedown attempts and is a BJJ black belt, now he’s facing a one-dimensional grappler and it would make sense for Bonfim to try and keep this fight standing. He also doesn’t generally put up huge striking totals, although Saint Denis does lead the slate with 6.72 SSA/min. Nevertheless, at Bonfim’s high price tag, he appears reliant on landing a well timed finish to end up in winning tournament lineups and Saint Denis has never been finished in his career. The odds imply Bonfim has a 72% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.

Saint Denis is coming off back-to-back second round finishes that were good for 136 and 105 DraftKings points. Both of those came in great spots against lower level opponents, but now he’ll face a much tougher test in Bonfim. We saw Saint Denis really struggle in his UFC debut when faced against a tougher opponent, although in fairness that was up a weight class and against a longtime UFC veteran. Nevertheless, that showed some of Saint Denis’ limitations and defensively he has shown some major holes on the feet. That leaves him reliant on getting this fight to the ground and hunting for a submission, which will be tough as Bonfim is a BJJ black belt who has been really tough to get down. That seemingly leaves Saint Denis as a hail mary submission or bust play, and he’ll likely be overowned following back-to-back finishes and a slate-breaking performance. The odds imply Saint Denis has a 28% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Melissa Gatto

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Fourteen months removed from her first career loss, Gatto had been scheduled to face Gillian Robertson last September but ended up withdrawing. The last time we saw Gatto, she lost a close wrestling-heavy decision against a really tough Tracy Cortez, where Cortez landed two of her three takedown attempts with almost eight minutes of control time, while Gatto landed three of her six takedown attempts with three minutes of control time. Prior to that, Gatto finished three straight opponents, with a pair of late round TKO wins in her first two UFC fights. The most recent of those wins came in an early third round TKO against Sijara Eubanks, which is the only time Eubanks has ever been finished. Just before that, Gatto notched a post R2 TKO in her UFC debut where Victoria Leonardo suffered a broken arm. Gatto took nearly three years off prior to making her UFC debut, after submitting Karol Rosa in the first round of a 2018 match on the Brazilian regional scene.

Now 8-1-2 as a pro, Gatto has two wins by TKO, four submissions, and two decision victories. All four of her submissions came in the first round, two by armbar, one by kimura, and another by rear-naked choke. Both of her TKO wins occurred in the later rounds, with one ending in round three and the other ending just before round three started. Gatto started her career at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb when she made her UFC debut.

Overall, Gatto is a slick grappler and dangerous submission threat who has shown improvements to her striking since joining the UFC. Don’t get confused by her two TKO wins, she’s looking to submit opponents, and isn’t much of a knockout threat. One of those TKOs came from an ongoing arm injury and the other was a TKO by body shot. Gatto has looked good since dropping down to 125 lb, and physically she’s all muscle it seems like. The fight with Eubanks was extremely close before the flukey finish, and the outcome likely would have come down to who could control the other on the mat in the third round had it not been for the finish. In her three UFC fights, Gatto has landed 4 of her 12 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while her opponents have gotten her down on 3 of their 10 attempts (70% defense). Gatto’s biggest issue has been inactivity, as she’s only fought once since 2021 and only three times since 2018. After facing three straight wrestlers in her first three UFC fights, now she’ll take on a striker who has looked terrible on the mat.

Ariane Lipski

10th UFC Fight (4-5)

Coming off an upset win over JJ Aldrich, Lipski showed improvements to her defensive wrestling as she defended all 12 of Aldrich’s takedown attempts. We will say, that was one of the most uninspired performances we’ve ever seen from Aldrich and she never looked right in there. Lipski was also able to take Aldrich down twice, despite Aldrich normally being very hard to take down. Lipski’s striking also looked good in the match as she doubled Aldrich up and finished ahead in significant strikes 101-49. Prior to that win, Lipski suffered a 65 second R1 TKO loss to Priscila Cachoeira, after winning a decision over a terrible Mandy Bohm. The Lipski/Cachoeira fight was originally scheduled to take place at 125 lb, but Lipski missed weight by 2.5 lb and then wasn’t medically cleared. It was bumped back a week and moved up to 135 lb, but Lipski returned to 125 lb for her last fight. Just before the win over Bohm, Lipski got finished with ground and pound in the second round of consecutive fights against Antonina Shevchenko and Montana De La Rosa, after landing a first round submission against Luana Carolina. After Lipski’s first three UFC fights all went the distance, four of her last six fights have ended in the first two rounds.

Now 15-8 as a pro, Lipski has six wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. While 9 of her 15 career wins have come early, Lipski only has one finish since 2017 and four of her last five wins went the distance. She has four TKO losses and four decision defeats. All four of her early losses have ended in the first two rounds, with three of those coming in her last five matches.

Overall, Lipski is a decent striker with some level of submission skills, but has looked terrible off her back. She claims she’s been working on her wrestling since switching camps to American Top Team following her loss to Shevchenko, and did show some improvements in her last fight. She’s a BJJ purple belt and her last three early wins all ended in first round submissions, although she only has one finish since 2017. In her nine UFC fights, Lipski has landed three takedowns on seven attempts (42.9% accuracy), while she’s been taken down by her opponents on 8 of 30 opponent attempts (73.3% defense). Her last three opponents have notably failed to get her down on 16 attempts, after she got finished on the mat in each of her previous two fights.

Fight Prediction:

Lipski will have a 1” height advantage, but Gatto will have a 2” reach advantage.

Despite Lipski being able to keep her last few fights standing, this looks like a really tough matchup for her as she takes on a dangerous grappler in Melissa Gatto. While Lipski has never been submitted in her career, the closest thing to a submission threat she’s faced in the UFC was Montana De La Rosa, and Lipski has mostly been fighting strikers. We expect Gatto to be able to get this fight to the mat and work her way to a submission win within the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is Gatto’s ML at -190.

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DFS Implications:

Gatto was able to score 117 DraftKings in a post R2 TKO win in her UFC debut, but then only scored 82 points in a R3 TKO and just 42 points in a decision loss in her last fight. So she’s been reliant on landing a finish in the first two rounds to score well, but she’s also faced three straight grapplers and will now get a striker. That creates the potential for Gatto to be more dominant on the mat in this fight than in those last three, which creates the potential for her to score well on DraftKings even in a decision win. With that said, we like her chances of finding a finish, most likely by submission in the first two rounds. Lipski has shown recent improvements to her defensive wrestling, so there’s always a chance Gatto will struggle to get the fight to the mat, but that’s a risk we’re willing to take. The odds imply Gatto has a 67% chance to win, a 38% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Lipski has averaged a respectable 95 DraftKings points in her four UFC wins, despite three of those going the distance. Her recent 83 point performance is actually the lowest score she’s put up in a win, after returning totals of 99, 95, and 102 in her first three UFC victories. It’s hard to know if her recent win was her turning a corner in her career or if JJ Aldrich had a really off day, but it may have been a combination of the two. She’ll be tested here as she faces a dangerous grappler in Gatto who will have a massive advantage on the mat. Therefore, it will be essential that Lipski keeps this fight standing, as she’ll be at risk of getting finished anytime she’s forced to engage in a grappling exchange. That could make it tougher for Lipski to score well in a decision, as she won’t want to look for takedowns and will need to be wary of getting taken down herself. Gatto has never been finished in her career, and Lipski has just one early win since 2017, so it’s unlikely Lipski finds the finish she needs to really score well. That leaves Lipski needing to thread the needle of winning a decision and getting a lot of help from the other underdogs on the slate to serve as a value play and sneak into winning tournament lineups. The odds imply she has a 33% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Michael Morales

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Nearly a year removed since we last saw him, Morales kept his undefeated record intact with a third round TKO win over Adam Fugitt, who was making his UFC debut on just nine days’ notice. Morales had been scheduled to fight Rinat Fakhretdinov in December, but ended with withdrawing after fracturing one of his toes. The first two rounds of that last fight were fairly close, and two of the judges actually scored the first round for Fugitt, although it was Morales who was landing the bigger shots and that eventually caught up with Fugitt as Morales dropped him twice early in round three just before the fight was stopped. Prior to that win, Morales landed a first round knockout in his UFC debut against Trevin Giles, who was dropping down to 170 lb for the first time in his career. That came just after Morales won a decision on DWCS to get his shot in the UFC, which was just the second time Morales has required the judges in his career.

Now 14-0 as a pro, Morales has 11 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. Seven of his 12 finishes occurred in the first round, four ended in round two, and his most recent came in round three. His lone submission win was a 2019 R1 triangle choke, and his last six finishes have all ended in knockouts. Ten of his last 11 fights have ended early, with the one exception being his DWCS match.

Overall, Morales is a former Ecuadorian national wrestling champion and both of his parents are judo black belts, but he relies primarily on his striking to win MMA fights. He has good range and is a patient striker who likes to feel out his opponents early on before looking for finishes after he settles in. However, once he smells blood in the water he really lets his hands go and he’s an explosive striker, he’s just not a guy that typically throws much volume right out of the gate. He seems to keep his chin pretty high and his hands pretty low, which leaves him reliant on his reflexes to remain out of danger. That will eventually catch up with him if he doesn’t shore up his defensive striking technique, but also allows him to throw dangerous counters that opponents often don’t see coming. Morales definitely hasn’t faced the toughest competition in his career and is still just 24 years old, so we expect him to have some growing pains in his UFC career eventually, but he is an interesting prospect to keep an eye on moving forward.

Max Griffin

15th UFC Fight (7-7)

Griffin is coming off a split decision win over Tim Means, where afterwards Griffin said he thought he broke his hand early in the fight. Griffin’s fights are all remarkably similar. He comes out hot in round one, often landing a knockdown but rarely a knockout, then slows down in the later rounds and ends up relying on the judges to award him a close, and often split decision. Amazingly, 9 of his 16 career decisions have been split (4-5), including his last two (1-1), and five of his last seven (2-3). His last three and 10 of his last 12 fights have gone the distance, with the two exceptions being a 2020 R3 TKO when Ramiz Brahimaj’s ear fell off and a subsequent 2021 R1 KO over Song Kenan, who’s been knocked out in four of his seven career losses. Griffin lost a split decision to Neil Magny just before his recent win over Means, but had won three straight before that and has now quietly won four of his last five fights, after starting his UFC career off just 3-6.

Now 19-9 as a pro, Griffin has nine wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and eight decision victories. His two submission wins were all the way back in 2013 and 2014 and both came in the first two rounds. Six of his nine knockouts occurred in round one, while he also has one in round two, another in round three, and one in round four. His only UFC KO/TKO win to come beyond the first round was the zombie TKO against Ramiz Brahimaj, whose ear fell off midway through round three to halt the action. Griffin has only been finished once in his career, which came in a third round pitter patter ground and pound TKO in his UFC debut against Colby Covington, where Covington just wore Griffin down on the mat until Griffin stopped fighting back. His other eight losses all ended in decisions. Ten of Griffin’s 14 UFC fights have gone the distance (4-6), while four have ended in knockouts (3-1).

Overall, Griffin is a longtime UFC veteran who relies mostly on his striking, and specifically his power right hand, but will mix in takedowns and has landed at least one in seven of his last 10 fights. Looking at his entire 14-fight UFC career, he’s landed 19 of his 38 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents have only gotten him down on 13 of their 45 attempts (71.1% defense). He’s most dangerous in the first round of fights, and tends to slow down later in matchers, especially when he’s forced to wrestle. He’s landed eight knockdowns in the UFC, including one in each of his last four matches. Six of his eight knockdowns came in round one, with the other two occurring in round two earlier in his career. He hasn’t landed a knockdown beyond the first round since 2018. All but one of the fights where he landed a knockdown still ultimately went the distance and despite the big moments in those fights, he still only won half of those decisions (3-3). That’s still better than his 1-3 UFC record in fights that go the distance where he’s failed to land a knockdown.

Fight Prediction:

Morales will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also 13 years younger than the 37-year-old Griffin.

Both of these two are dangerous strikers who can also mix in wrestling, but rarely threaten submissions. Griffin tends to start a little faster and looks like the more technically sound striker, but Morales appears to have the cardio advantage, despite how infrequently he requires the judges and how often Griffin goes the full 15 minutes. While Griffin is a solid fighter, his Achilles heel has been his inability to keep his pace up for three hard rounds. This has consistently resulted in his decisions being split, as he typically wins the first round, makes the second round close, and loses round three. That creates an interesting live betting opportunity following the first round in his fights, although you may be better off just betting the split decision beforehand. Neither of these two have ever truly been knocked out, with Griffin’s lone early loss coming from unimposing ground and pound as he just stopped fighting back late in the fight against Covington. That lowers the chances that we see a finish here, although if we do, Griffin’s best shot will be in the first round when he’s still fresh, while Morales may have a better chance in the later rounds once Griffin starts slowing down. With that said, both guys have been durable up to this point and we like it to end in a close and very likely split decision, just like all of Griffin’s other fights. All of Griffin’s recent wins have come against aging and low-level options, and we like Morales to squeak out a close decision win, with a slight chance of landing a late knockout.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +500.

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DFS Implications:

Morales has knocked out both of his UFC opponents, returning DraftKings scores of 100 and 118 in those two finishes. Both of those were favorable spots for Morales to find a finish, but now he’ll face a much tougher test in Max Griffin, who’s one weakness has been his cardio, not his chin. Griffin has only been finished once in 28 pro fights and that came via ground and pound in his unfairly difficult UFC debut against Colby Covington. Griffin has also only been knocked down once in 14 UFC appearances and is a dangerous striker himself, so Morales will need to be careful not to get caught with anything clean. Griffin tends to slow down a little after the first round, so if Morales can simply survive the opening five minutes, he should be in a good position to take over down the stretch. While that presents a clear path for how he wins the fight, he’ll likely have a tougher time returning value with a later finish at his expensive price tag, and the only reason he was able to score 100 points in his recent third round TKO win was because he landed two knockdowns. We also don’t see him scoring especially well in a decision, unless he mixes in far more grappling than he has in his last two fights. That’s not impossible considering he has a wrestling background and landed four takedowns on DWCS, but it is unlikely, as Griffin has a solid 71% takedown defense and Morales only attempted two takedowns in his last two fights failing to land either of them. That leaves Morales reliant on landing a well timed knockout to score well. The odds imply Morales has a 68% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Griffin has averaged 92 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, but has been reliant on landing first round knockouts to really score well. He’s only landed two of those in 14 UFC appearances, which were good for 108 and 121 DraftKings points respectively. His only other UFC finish was a third round TKO, that scored just 77 DraftKings points. However, he has shown a solid scoring floor in his decision wins, where’s averaged 84 points on DraftKings and scored 84, 85, and 93 points in the last three of those. His striking numbers have been consistent but unspectacular, but he typically mixes in some wrestling to boost his scoring. However, that could be tougher here, as Morales is a former Ecuadorian national wrestling champion and has a solid 86% takedown defense, although has been taken down once in each of his two UFC fights. Wrestling is also sort of a Catch-22 for Griffin, as he needs to wrestle to score well in a decision, but gasses out faster when he wrestles, which makes it harder for him to win a decision. Griffin has also relied on landing knockdowns to boost his scoring, as he’s knocked down four straight opponents in the first round. That’s typically an unsustainable thing to rely on, although Morales does often leave his chip up and his hands low. Regardless, we’re definitely not comfortable relying on Griffin landing knockdowns, takedowns, or having his cardio hold up to score well here, which leaves him more reliant on landing a first round knockout to score well. His cheap price tag obviously creates the potential for him to serve as a value play in a decision win, but he’ll still need to outscore almost all of the other dogs on the slate to be useful in tournaments. The odds imply Griffin has a 32% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Damir Ismagulov

7th UFC Fight (5-1)

Not retiring after all, Ismagulov is stepping back inside the Octagon at least one more time to fulfill the final fight on his UFC contract. Claiming he was going to retire after his recent loss always seemed weird, and the guy is only 32 years old. It’s unclear if he meant he was just retiring from the UFC and planned on fighting elsewhere or what was going on. Anyways, he’s coming off his first loss in his last 20 fights after going on an insane 19 fight winning streak. That loss came against one of the best fighters in the world in Arman Tsarukyan, so it was nothing to be ashamed of. Ismagulov came into that matchup with an elite 90% takedown defense and it showed at multiple points in the match, but Tsarukyan was relentless with his attempts and ultimately got Ismagulov down on 7 of his 21 attempts, while controlling him for nine and a half minutes. Prior to that, Ismagulov won a close split-decision over Guram Kutateladze, and was 5-0 in the UFC with all five fights going the distance. He’s faced a series of really tough opponents in his last five fights, as he defeated Joel Alvarez, Thiago Moises, Rafael Alves, and Guram Kutateladze, before losing to Tsarukyan. And prior to joining the UFC, Ismagulov was notably fighting on the tough M-1 Russian circuit, so he’s accustomed to facing stiff competition.

Now 24-2 as a pro, Ismagulov has 12 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and 11 decision victories. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses going the distance. His only early win since 2017 was a 2018 R1 TKO due to an opponent suffering a hand injury, just before Ismagulov joined the UFC.

Overall, Ismagulov is a really tough, well rounded fighter, but has yet to finish anybody in the UFC. He has a good jab, stays defensively sound, and has a solid takedown defense. In his six UFC fights, he’s landed 7 takedowns on 25 attempts (28% accuracy), while he’s only been taken down by his opponents on 8 of their 32 attempts (75% defense). He’s outlanded all six of his UFC opponents in significant strikes, but only averages 3.78 SSL/min and 2.51 SSA/min. While he’s not the most exciting fighter, he’s a proven winner and has a high fight IQ. Ismagulov has notably finished some of his camps at American Top Team, where Dawson also trains, and these two have actually trained together some in the past. So they should know each other quite well, which could reduce the need for a feeling out process in the match.

Grant Dawson

9th UFC Fight (7-0-1)

Coming off a pair of third round submission wins, Dawson outgrappled a couple of guys known for their grappling in Mark O. Madsen and Jared Gordon. In his recent win over the former Greco-Roman Olympic Wrestling silver medalist, Dawson landed two of his six takedown attempts and finished with nine and a half minutes of control time before locking up a submission midway through round three. Just prior to that, Dawson landed a career best seven takedowns on 17 attempts against Jared Gordon, before landing a submission in the final minute of the fight. Dawson is undefeated in his last 11 fights, and the only time he didn’t come out victorious over that stretch was in a 2021 draw against Ricky Glenn. Following the disappointing result, Dawson made the switch to American Top Team after spending eight years at Glory MMA & Fitness, and Thiago Moises is now one of his main training partners. The move appeared successful, as Dawson became the first fighter to ever submit Jared Gordon in his next match and then handed Mark O. Madsen the first loss of his career. Five of Dawson’s seven UFC wins have ended early, but all eight of his UFC fights have made it out of the first round. His first two UFC finishes ended in round two, while his last three all ended in round three.

Now 19-1-1 as a pro, Dawson has four wins by KO/TKO, 13 submissions, and two decision victories. His only career loss was a 35 second R1 KO in 2016. Three of his four career knockout wins occurred in round two with the other ending in round three. Six of his last seven finishes have ended in submissions. Of his 13 submission wins, seven ended in round one, four came in round two, and his most recent two ended in round three. Dawson started his career fighting at 155 lb, but dropped down to 145 lb in 2016, where he stayed until 2021, when he moved up to 155 lb following a couple of tough weight misses.

Overall, Dawson relies heavily on his wrestling and tends to wear on his opponents opposed to finishing fights quickly. He’s a BJJ black belt and the majority of his career wins have come by submission. Between his eight UFC fights and his DWCS match, Dawson has landed 27 takedowns on 78 attempts (34.6% accuracy), while he’s only had five takedowns attempted against him, with three of those being landed (40% defense). No one has ever gotten him down more than once, and Dawson finished all three of the opponents to land a takedown against him. Dawson missed weight for his last 155 lb fight, so he’ll be a guy to monitor at weigh-ins.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’10”, but Ismagulov will have a 2” reach advantage, while Dawson is three years younger.

There are no secrets in this one. Dawson is a relentless wrestler and a solid grappler, but doesn’t offer a ton in terms of striking. Meanwhile, Ismagulov is solid everywhere, but has yet to show any finishing upside at the UFC level. The key to the fight will be how Ismagulov’s takedown defense holds up, as he should be able to piece Dawson up in the striking exchanges for as long as this fight remains standing. There is some uncertainty on Ismagulov’s side of things after he claimed he was retiring after his last match where he got taken down seven times. It’s never encouraging to hear fighters talk about retirement and that makes it tougher to gauge where his head is currently at. However the only reason to think his takedown defense is anything less than elite is because of his last fight, and that was against one of the best wrestlers in the UFC. Dawson is good, but he’s not Arman Tsarukyan good, so this will actually be a step down in competition for Ismagulov. We expect Ismagulov will do a better job than most defending Dawson’s takedowns, but we’re not convinced he’ll be able to completely shut down the attacks, and he’ll likely be forced to play defense for most of this match. It’s hard to win fights like that and we still give the slight edge to Dawson to get his hand raised in a decision, but this should be a fun one to watch and we’re expecting a close fight.

Our favorite bet here is “Dawson R3 or DEC” at +190.

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DFS Implications:

Ismagulov has fought to six straight decisions since joining the UFC and has yet to show any sort of finishing upside since joining the organization. He’s faced one incredibly tough opponent after the next and that won’t change here as he takes on yet another grappler. The only times he’s scored even remotely well in decisions is when he’s been the one controlling the grappling exchanges, and we don’t see that happening here. So even if he can fend off Dawson’s takedowns and keep the fight standing, we still don’t see him putting up a useful score unless he lands a finish. While anything’s possible, we’d be surprised to see that happen and Ismagulov looks like nothing more than a hail mary KO or bust play. The one thing working in his favor for tournaments is that he’ll be very low owned, while Dawson will be incredibly popular, so if he does somehow get a finish, he’ll be an incredible leverage play. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

Dawson has averaged 103 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins and has shown the ability to score well on DraftKings even without a finish. The line has moved in his favor this week, taking him from a slight underdog to a straight pick’em, leaving him underpriced on DraftKings. He’s already been very popular in the past, but that will just add to the field’s excitement of clicking his name. While his mispricing makes him a great low-risk play, it lowers his tournament appeal as it will be harder to create unique lineups that include him. He’s also facing an incredibly tough opponent who has a really solid takedown defense, so this is far from an easy matchup. While Dawson did just outgrapple a former Olympic wrestler, Mark O. Madsen is old and has shit cardio and Ismagulov will prove to be a tougher test. Ismagulov has never been finished and we’d be surprised to see that change here, leaving Dawson more reliant on filling up the stat sheet to score well. While Dawson’s cheaper price tag widens his range of useful scoring outcomes, there are still ways he wins a decision and gets left out of tournament winning lineups if Ismagulov can at least limit the number of takedowns he gives up, and we also won’t be that surprised to see Ismagulov win the fight. The odds imply Dawson has a 50% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Sean Strickland

19th UFC Fight (13-5)

Strickland recently snapped a two-fight skid when he stepped into a main event spot on short notice and won a five-round decision over Nassourdine Imavov. Strickland landed his only takedown attempt in the fight and stuffed Imavov’s only attempts, while finishing ahead in significant strikes 182-123. That’s the fourth time in his last five fights that Strickland has topped 150 significant strikes landed in a five-round decision, with the one exception being when he got knocked out by Alex Pereira in the first round of a 2022 match. Strickland’s only other loss in his last nine fights came in a close/questionable five-round split decision to Jared Cannonier in his second most recent match, just after the loss to Pereira. Leading up to the pair of losses, Strickland won back-to-back five-round decisions against Uriah Hall and Jack Hermansson. His last four wins have all gone the distance, with the last three of those coming in five-round fights, and the last time Strickland finished anybody was when he knocked out Brendan Allen in the second round of a 2020 match. Strickland’s only other finish since 2016 was a 2018 R2 KO win over Nordine Taleb, who got finished in three of his last four UFC fights before hanging it up in 2019.

Now 26-5 as a pro, Strickland has 10 wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and 12 decision victories. He has three decision losses, while both of his early losses ended in first round knockouts. The first of those knockout losses came in 2018 against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in a 170 lb fight, while the other was in 2022 against Alex Pereira at 185 lb. Those are the only two times in Strickland’s last 17 matches that we’ve seen his fights end in the first round. Twelve of his last 17 fights have gone the distance, while all three of his early wins over that stretch came in rounds two and three. He’s won six of the last seven decisions he’s been to, with the one loss being split. His only other decision loss since 2015 was against Kamaru Usman in 2017. Strickland joined the UFC in 2014 at 185 lb, but after starting out 2-0 he moved down to 170 lb for a three year stretch from 2015 to 2018 where he went 5-3. Following a 2018 R2 TKO win at 170 lb, Strickland was forced into a 2-year layoff following a motorcycle accident and a career-threatening knee injury. Upon his return, he moved back up to 185 lb where he has since gone 6-2, extending his UFC 185 lb record to 8-2.

This will be Strickland’s 5th five-round fight in the UFC. His previous four all ended in decisions (3-1), with his recent loss to Cannonier after he defeated Uriah Hall and Jack Hermansson. Strickland also had five fights scheduled to go five rounds before he joined the UFC, all of which he won, with three first round knockouts and two decisions. All of his UFC five-round fights have been similar, playing out as steady-paced striking battles with occasional takedowns from Strickland mixed in. He finished ahead in significant strikes in all four of those fights (182-123, 152-141, 153-137, and 186-107), while landing six of his eight takedown attempts and stuffing all nine of the attempts against him. In those four fights, he averaged a healthy 6.73 SSL/min and 5.08 SSA/min.

Overall, Strickland likes to constantly inch forward while pumping out his jab, as he outpoints his way to victory. He’s shown us at multiple points that he’s far more concerned with securing wins than looking for finishes, but he also demonstrated against Alex Pereira that he would rather lose a striking battle than win a wrestling match. In his eight fights since returning to 185 lb, Strickland has landed seven takedowns on nine attempts (77.8% accuracy), while defending all 10 of the attempts against him (100% defense). Four of those seven takedowns and six of those nine attempts were against Uriah Hall and he’s only landed/attempted three total takedowns in his other seven most recent fights, failing to land more than one in any of those matches. Strickland is 13-1 in the UFC when he’s led in striking and 0-4 when he’s trailed, and his success stems almost entirely from his ability to outland his opponents. His last fight was at a 205 lb Catchweight, but now he’ll be cutting back down to 185 lb.

Abus Magomedov

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Despite having just 19 seconds of UFC cage time, Magomedov is being rushed into a main event spot for his second Octagon appearance. His recent UFC debut ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from the performance, as he landed a toe-tasting front kick up the middle in the opening seconds and then swarmed Dustin Stoltzfus with punches and the fight was almost immediately stopped. Magomedov has really struggled with fight cancellations. Following his debut win, he had two fights booked and canceled and leading up to his debut he had three canceled. That has resulted in him only fighting once since December 2020 and that match lasted just 19 seconds. His last two fights before making his debut both ended in submission wins in the opening seven minutes of fights, after he was knocked out by a 39-year-old Louis Taylor in just 33 seconds in the 2018 PFL finals with a million dollars on the line.

Now 25-4-1 as a pro, Magomedov has 14 wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. Fifteen of his 20 finishes have come in round one, with the other five ending in round two. All three of his early losses also occurred in the first two rounds. He’s only been in one fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes since 2015, which was a 2018 decision win.

This will be the 6th five-round fight of Magomedov’s career and first in the UFC. All five of his previous fights scheduled to go five rounds ended in the first round (4-1), including a 2018 R1 KO loss, a 2017 R1 KO win, a 2013 R1 SUB loss, a 2013 R1 KO win, and a 2013 R1 KO win. So he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 min and it’s rare he even sees a third round.

Overall, Magomedov’s inactivity in recent years makes it impossible to fully evaluate where he’s currently at, but he looks like a well rounded fighter who’s dangerous both on the feet and the mat. He grew up wrestling in Dagestan, before moving to Germany when he was 15 years old, where he then began focussing more on striking. He’s shown both patience and explosiveness in the past, but we do wonder about his cardio in the championship rounds. He’s shown a solid takedown defense and has good size for the division and has only been finished once since 2013. The UFC clearly has high expectations for him as they fast-track him into a headlining spot, so it will be interesting to see how he responds.

Fight Prediction:

Magomedov will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

What a massive step up in competition for Magomedov this is, as he goes from facing a terrible Dustin Stoltzfus in his UFC debut to squaring off against the #7 ranked Middleweight in Sean Strickland. The last time we saw the UFC push a Middleweight this fast to the top was with Alex Pereira, and he even had to face two guys before taking on Strickland. Clearly the UFC believes in Magomedov, although with just 19 seconds of cage time over the last 31 months, there are several question marks surrounding him. The biggest of those will be his cardio and he’s never seen the championship rounds in his career. In a lot of ways, Strickland is the perfect test for a guy like Magomedov, as Strickland will test his cardio while not posing much of a finishing threat. So either Magomedov will become just the third fighter to ever finish Strickland or we get to see if Magomedov can remain competitive in the later rounds. Magomedov has looked dangerous enough that it’s possible he can put Strickland away in the first two rounds, but if he doesn’t, we like Strickland’s chances of outpacing him over the course of five rounds and winning a decision. If history is any indicator, that’s the most likely outcome here, although also what most people are expecting so it’s not exactly a hot take. We just haven’t seen enough from Magomedov in recent years to confidently predict him to finish a very durable Sean Strickland, so Strickland by decision is our pick. However, this will be Magomedov’s opportunity to catapult himself into the rankings and make a statement in the division if he can land a finish, or even more shockingly win a five-round decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Strickland DEC” at +180.

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DFS Implications:

Strickland has gone the full five rounds in four of his last five fights, winning three of those four decisions, and arguably should have won all four. He averaged 118 DraftKings points and 134 points on FanDuel in those three wins, with DK/FD totals of 118/135, 93/112, and 144/156. He also scored 68 DraftKings points and 97 points on FanDuel in the one split-decision loss, which would have been good for 98 and 117 points respectively had the close decision gone his way. So he’s consistently shown both a solid scoring floor and ceiling in five-round fights, while his striking-heavy style scores even better on FanDuel than on DraftKings. While he’s been knocked out in the first round in two of his last three losses, he’s still been durable overall in his career, but hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat lately. In his recent four five-round fights, he’s steadily averaged 6.73 SSL/min and 5.08 SSA/min, landing between 152 and 186 significant strikes in all four of those fights. So in fights where he doesn’t get knocked out in the opening five minutes, we generally know what we can expect from him and at his reasonable price tag he’s going to end up in tournament winning lineups far more often than not if he wins here. The odds imply Strickland has a 57% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

Magomedov remains somewhat of a wildcard, as his UFC debut only lasted 19 seconds and that’s his only fight in the last 31 months. That makes it hard to know how he’ll look if this fight makes it to the championship rounds, but he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes and rarely sees a third round. While he’s 5-1-1 in the seven decisions he’s been to, two of those wins and the draw were only two round fights, and only 4 of his 30 pro fights lasted longer than 10 minutes, with him winning three of those. He also got starched in just 33 seconds in his last loss, which was back in 2018, so it’s hard to fully trust his chin. However, offensively he’s a very dangerous and well-rounded fighter who grew up wrestling in Dagestan, before moving to Germany when he was 15 years old. While Magomedov’s wrestling adds some upside for him, Strickland has a really solid 85% career takedown defense and has also defended all 10 of the attempts against him in his last eight fights since moving back up to 185 lb. Therefore, it may be tougher for Magomedov to find much grappling success, leaving him reliant on his striking and finishing ability to score well. Considering Magomedov has never seen a fourth round and Strickland excels at outpacing opponents in 25 minute fights, Magomedov likely needs a finish here to pull off the upset. And if he’s successful in doing so, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups at his cheap price tag. He would also be a great leverage play against the always popular Sean Strickland. The odds imply Magomedov has a 43% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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