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Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Karine Silva
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming off her seventh straight finish and second first round submission in the UFC, Silva continues to make short work of the opposition as she kept her 100% finishing rate intact. She made her UFC debut in June 2022 and locked up a Brabo choke in the closing seconds of round one against Poliana Botelho, before most recently taking on a debuting Ketlen Souza, who she finished with a kneebar in less than two minutes. Prior to that, she secured her spot on the UFC roster with a second round submission win on DWCS and five of her last six wins have come by submission. The one exception was a 2020 R1 TKO where she snapped her opponents arm in an armbar attempt but there was never a tap so it went down as a TKO when the ref eventually stopped the fight due to the injury. Her only other KO/TKO win since 2015 was in 2019. Six of her last seven finishes have ended in the first round and her DWCS victory is the only time she’s seen the second round since 2019, when she lost a decision in her only career fight to require the judges. That’s especially impressive when you consider she turned pro all the way back in 2013 and has 20 fights under her belt.
Now 16-4 as a pro, all 16 of her career wins have come in the first two rounds, including 11 in R1 and four in R2. She has nine wins by KO/TKO and seven submissions. Five of her nine KO/TKO wins came in her first six pro fights and the majority of her recent wins have ended in submissions. She’s been finished in three of her four career losses, with one KO and two submissions, and she lost the only decision she’s ever been to. She’s 0-2 in fights that have made it to the third round, although 18 of her last 19 fights haven’t lasted that long. She was knocked out in the third round of her 2013 pro debut and then a year later was submitted in the first round by Maryna Moroz—a loss that Silva will be looking to avenge here. The only time she’s been finished since 2014 was in a 2017 R1 kneebar, which she followed up with a decision loss. Silva turned pro in 2013 when she was just 19 years old and fought anywhere from 115 lb to 135 lb early on. She hasn’t fought at 115 lb since 2015, but she has been going back and forth between 135 lb and 125 lb more recently. However, her last three fights have been at 125 lb and it appears that’s where she’ll stay.
Overall, Silva is an aggressive fighter who’s constantly looking for finishes and will throw up a variety of submission attempts. She’s a BJJ brown belt and a dangerous submission threat from all types of positions, with very flexible hips that allow her to be dangerous off her back. Between her DWCS match and her two UFC fights, she landed two of her four takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while she got taken down by her opponents twice on just two attempts. She’s also a pretty dangerous striker, with solid power and likes to throw a lot of kicks up the middle. One area of concern with her is her cardio, and she looked to be slowing down some on DWCS before she finished the fight with a guillotine submission. She’s also never won a fight that lasted longer than two rounds, and has competed at both 125 lb and 135 lb, so it could be a tougher cut for her to make 125 lb, although she did compete at 115 lb early in her career.
Maryna Moroz
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Jennifer Maia, Moroz got outstruck by the former title challenger 109-80 in significant strikes, while no takedowns were attempted in the match. That loss snapped a three-fight winning streak for Moroz, who submitted Mariya Agapova in the second round of her last win, after winning a pair of decisions against Mayra Bueno Silva and Sabina Mazo. Landing two takedowns in the fight, Moroz showed a willingness to go to the ground with a dangerous grappler in Bueno Silva, who’s known for landing armbars off her back. Moroz’s second most recent loss was all the way back in 2018, in a decision defeat against Angela Hill, which came just after Moroz lost a decision to Carla Esparza. Eight of Moroz’s last nine fights have gone the distance (4-4), with her other two UFC fights ending in submission wins.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Moroz has one win by TKO, six submissions, and four decision victories. Six of her seven finishes occurred in her first six pro fights, with five of her six submission wins ending in armbars. Moroz has never been finished herself, with all four of her losses going the distance. Her first six UFC bouts were all down at 115 lb, before she moved up to 125 lb for her last four matches. After going 3-3 at 115 lb in the UFC, she’s 3-1 at 125 lb.
Overall, Moroz is a Master of Sports in boxing and kickboxing and a former member of the Ukrainian National Boxing Team, so her background is all striking based. However, she’s often been looking to get fights to the ground in the UFC. After she only landed one takedown on five attempts in her six UFC fights at 115 lb, she landed five takedowns on 22 attempts in her four fights up at 125 lb, although failed to attempt a takedown in her last match. So overall, she’s landed 6 of her 27 takedown attempts in the UFC (22.2% accuracy). She’s 4-0 in UFC fights where she’s landed at least one takedown, but just 2-4 when she hasn’t landed any. The only time she’s won a decision without landing a takedown was a 2016 split decision over Danielle Taylor. On the other side of things, her opponents have gotten her down on 10 of their 19 attempts (47.4% defense). While none of her 125 lb opponents even attempted a takedown against her, all five of the 115 lb opponents who tried to take her down were successful. That’s concerning as she faces a dangerous submission threat here.
Fight Prediction:
Moroz will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 67” reach.
This will be a rematch of a 2014 fight that Moroz won in a first round armbar, but that was very early in both of their careers, when Silva was just 20 years old and still competing all the way down at 115 lb so we don’t put a lot of weight on those results. The fact that Moroz has been taken down by everyone that’s tried is very concerning for her outlook and Silva has looked really dangerous on the ground. Moroz hasn't faced many real submission threats outside of Mayra Bueno Silva, so we’re not going to get too hung up on the fact that she’s never been finished before. Moros’s best path to pulling off the upset will be to keep the fight standing and try to outlast Silva, who’s shown cardio issues in the past. However, with Moroz’s poor takedown defense, we don’t really see that happening so we’ll take Silva by submission in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Silva R1 or R2 Win” at +220.
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DFS Implications:
Silva has won seven straight fights and 100% of her 16 career wins have come early, all in the first two rounds. She scored 99 DraftKings points in her most recent first round submission win, after totaling 104 points in her UFC debut, which also ended in a first round submission. Now she gets a rematch against an opponent who submitted her in the first round all the way back in 2014, when Silva was just 20 years old. While Moroz has never been finished in her career, she has been very prone to getting taken down, and also hasn’t faced many dangerous grapplers. Silva should be able to get this fight to the mat, and once there, we like her chances of becoming the first fighter to ever finish Moroz. At Silva’s reasonable price tag, she doesn’t need to put up a huge score to end up in tournament winning lineups, so we’re not overly concerned that she’s yet to top 104 points in either of her two UFC finishes. More concerning will be if she’s unable to find a finish in the first two rounds, as she has shown questionable cardio in the past and has never won a fight that made it to round three (0-2). However, she does have grappling upside and if she’s improved her cardio then it’s not impossible she could score well on DraftKings in a decision win. The odds imply Silva has a 56% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Moroz is coming off a decision loss, but scored well in her previous two wins, where she returned DraftKings totals of 108 and 111 in a pair of grappling-heavy wins. The most recent of those came in a second round submission win, which is Moroz’s only fight to end early in her last nine outings. Prior to that, she won a high-volume decision over Mayra Bueno Silva, while also tacking on two takedowns and scored 111 points. However, Moroz has shown a wide range of scoring outcomes in fights that go the distance and somehow scored just 37 DraftKings points in a 2016 decision victory. She also scored just 74 and 61 points in her other two decision wins, so the 111 point performance appears to be an outlier. While Moroz did notably submit Silva back in 2014 when these two initially fought, Silva was just 20 years old at the time and that fight took place nearly a decade ago. We don’t put much weight on those results, and Moroz will be at risk of getting submitted herself if this fight hits the mat. That’s concerning for Moroz’s scoring potential, as we’ve yet to see her put up a usable total without landing any takedowns. Working in her favor, Silva has shown cardio issues in the past and has never won a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes, so it’s possible Moroz can simply outlast Silva and take over in the later rounds. Whether or not that would score well remains to be seen, but if Silva completely gasses out then it’s definitely possible. The odds imply Moroz has a 44% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Natalia Silva
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Fresh off a first round TKO win over a terrible Victoria Leonardo, Silva has won all three of her UFC fights and has now landed back-to-bouch TKO wins. She’s won nine straight fights, with eight of those wins coming early, and the only time she’s required the judges since 2017 was in her 2022 UFC debut where she cruised to a decision win over Jasmine Jasudavicius. Silva followed that up with an impressive third-round spinning back kick knockout against a debuting Tereza Bleda. All three of Silva’s UFC fights have come against one-dimensional wrestlers, and we’ve yet to see her matched up against a striker. Prior to making her UFC debut, Silva took two and a half years off as she battled injuries, after landing six straight submission wins on the regional scene. SIlva’s only loss in her last 13 fights came in a 2017 decision against UFC Strawweight Marina Rodriguez, when Silva was just 20 years old.
Now 15-5-1 as a pro, Silva has five wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, two decision victories, and 1 DQ win. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. All three of her early losses occurred in her first four pro fights when she was just 18 years old. She got knocked out in the second round of her pro debut, and was then submitted in the first round in her third and fourth pro fights. Her only two losses since 2015 both ended in decisions and she showed her toughness going the distance against a 30-year-old Marina Rodriguez, when Silva was just 20 years old. Silva fought some at 115 lb early in her career when she was really young, but has been at 125 lb since 2018. Silva turned pro in 2015 just two months after her 18th birthday and had a rocky start to her career as she lost three of her first four fights. However, since then she’s gone 14-2-1 as she’s grown up inside of the cage.
Overall, Silva is a promising young prospect, who’s done a good job of rounding out her game in recent years. She has a background in Taekwondo and she used to rely mostly on kicks and grappling to get by in fights, but she’s made serious improvements to her boxing. She still throws a high number of kicks as well, which can help her to find her range when she faces taller opposition, but has dangerous hands and great footwork. On the mat, she’s primarily looking to lock up armbars, something she’s had a lot of success with. In her three UFC fights, she’s landed two of her six takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while her opponents have only gotten her down once on 14 attempts (92.8% defense). She’s impressively averaged 5.47 SSL/min and just 1.90 SSA/min.
Andrea Lee
11th UFC Fight (5-5)Lee comes in on a two fight skid after she lost a controversial split-decision to Mayceee Barber in her last fight, where Lee landed all five of her takedown attempts with over five minutes of control time, although didn’t do a ton with them. Barber finished slightly ahead in striking, while landing two takedowns of her own, and two of the three judges thought that was enough. Ten months prior to that, Lee lost a decision to Viviane Araujo. Lee started strong in that fight by landing an early knockdown, but then got smothered on the mat for the rest of that fight. Lee is now just 2-5 in her last seven fights and has lost the last five decisions she’s been to. Prior to her recent pair of decision defeats, she landed back-to-back second round finishes with a submission win over Antonina Shevchenko and a post R2 TKO over Cynthia Calvillo, who quit on the stool. Leading up to those finishes, Lee had gone the distance in her first six UFC fights, winning the first three of those before losing the next three. Eight of her 10 UFC fights have gone the distance, with three of her last five decisions being split, with her losing all of those.
Now 13-7 as a pro, Lee has three wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. The only time she's been finished was in a 2016 R3 rear-naked choke in her 6th pro fight, prior to joining the UFC. Her other six career losses all went the distance. Only one of her last 19 fights has ended in the first round, and her last 13 have all made it to round two, with 10 of those seeing the third round, and nine going the distance.
Overall, Lee is a karate black belt and a high-volume striker (5.13 SSL/min), who also holds brown belts in both judo and BJJ. In her 10 UFC fights, she’s landed 19 of her 33 takedown attempts (57.6% accuracy), while she’s been taken down 22 times on 48 opponent attempts (54.2% defense). All nine of the opponents who have tried to take her down have landed at least one of their attempts, with seven of those nine landing multiple takedowns against her. Defensive wrestling continues to be one of her weaknesses and she’s lost the last five fights where she’s been taken down more than once.
Fight Prediction:
Lee will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while Silva is eight years younger than the 34-year-old Lee.
This is a big step up in competition and a new challenge for Silva, who has faced three straight one-dimensional wrestlers so far in the UFC. While Lee will look for takedowns, she’s primarily a striker, with a background in karate. So while Silva has relied on hers striking so far in the UFC, it would make sense if she mixed in some more grappling here, as she’s a dangerous submission threat on the mat who loves looking for armbars. And while Lee has never been knocked out, she has been submitted once. However, it’s also possible that Silva will be content with duking it out on the feet and she’s no slouch in the striking exchanges, with a solid combination of boxing and Taekwondo kicks. We’d be surprised to see her knock Lee out, but if it stays standing we like Silva to outland her way to a decision, as she’s the quicker fighter with better movement and is lighter on her feet. If it does hit the mat, Silva will have a decent shot at locking up a submission, but a decision win is still probably the most likely scenario.
Our favorite bet here is “Natalia Silva Sub or DEC” at -175.
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DFS Implications:
Silva is 3-0 in the UFC and has won nine straight fights dating back to 2017, with eight of those wins coming early. She cruised to a decision win in her UFC debut, scoring 85 DraftKings points in the victory, and then landed a third round knockout that was also good for “just” 85 points in her next match. She finally put up a bigger score more recently when she landed a first round TKO that scored 109 DraftKings points, showing a more legitimate ceiling. It’s important to keep in mind that all three of those fights were against wrestlers, whereas now she’ll be going up against a striker. So we could see her look to change up her game plan and grapple a bit more, and she had a long history of landing submissions prior to joining the UFC. She loves looking for armbars on the mat, and while Lee has never been knocked out, she has been submitted once before. As the third most expensive fighter on the slate, Silva could easily get priced out of winning tournament lineups even if she does find a finish, but the potential for her to implement a more well-rounded gameplan does leave her with decent upside. The odds imply Silva has a 74% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Lee landed late/post second round finishes in each of her last two wins, so naturally she scored well in both of those with DraftKings totals of 104 and 116. However, she’s just 2-5 in her last seven fights and has lost the last five decisions she’s been to. She did win the first three decisions she went to in the UFC, but only averaged 79 DraftKings points in those wins and would likely need to implement a decent amount of wrestling to really score well without a finish. That would be a dangerous strategy for her, as Silva has a long history of landing armbars on the mat. While Silva has been finished three times as a pro, all of those early losses came in her first four pro fights when she was just 18 years old and no one has put her away since 2015. At her cheap price tag, it’s certainly possible that Lee could serve as a value play in a decision win even without putting up a big score, but it would require most of the other underdogs to lose. The odds imply Lee has a 26% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Andre Petroski
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Petroski had been scheduled to fight Armen Petrosyan back in May but ended up dropping out due to a partially torn rotator cuff. He said he was able to rehab the injury with stem cells without having to undergo surgery and it took about eight weeks to recover. Coming off his first career trip to the judges, Petroski outwrestled a BJJ black belt in Wellington Turman and finished with eight takedowns landed on 11 attempts with eight minutes of control time and two official submission attempts. Turman was only able to take Petroski down once on three attempts. That was Petroski’s fourth straight win in the UFC after he got knocked out of The Ultimate Fighter in 2021 when Bryan Battle submitted him in the second round. The UFC still clearly liked Petroski, as they brought him on anyways and matched him up with the worst opponent they could find in Micheal Gillmore, who also lost on TUF. Petroski landed a third round TKO against Gillmore in a one-sided beatdown and then took on another nobody in Hu Yaozong, who was 0-2 in the UFC and coming off a three year layoff. Petroski landed a third round submission against Yaozong and then followed it up with a first round submission win over his first actual test in Nick Maximov, leading up to his recent win over Turman.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Petroski has four wins by KO/TKO, four more by submission, and one decision victory. Four of his finishes occurred in round one, two ended in round two, and two came in round three. His only official career loss came in a 2020 R2 TKO, but he was also submitted in the second round on The Ultimate Fighter, although those fights are technically counted as exhibition matches so it doesn’t show up on his official record. Petroski made his 2018 pro debut at 170 lb, before moving up to 185 lb for his second fight.
Overall, Petroski is a BJJ brown belt and former college wrestler. He trains at Renzo Gracie Philly with a bunch of other solid grapplers like Pat Sabatini, Sean Brady, Jeremiah Wells, Joe Pyfer, and Kyle Daukaus. Pyfer notably just knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, and this will be the second straight time Petroski’s team has prepared to face Meerschaert. Petroski showed dubious cardio prior to joining the UFC, but that seems to be improving and he talked about how he started swimming and biking to work on it. You could definitely see a difference in his recent decision win and six of his last seven fights have made it out of the first round, with three of his last four making it to round three. Petroski said the UFC gave him a six fight deal right off the bat, which is very unusual as almost everybody only gets four fight deals. This will be the fifth fight on his contract and he said he hopes to renegotiate after this one, opposed to waiting until his contract runs out. So putting on an impressive performance will be important for him if he wants to really get paid. In his four UFC fights, Petroski landed 16 of his 28 takedown attempts (57.1% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down once on four attempts (75% defense).
Gerald Meerschaert
19th UFC Fight (10-8)Coming off a R1 KO loss to Joe Pyfer, Meerschaert flawlessly executed the stupidest gameplan in UFC history as he never even considered trying to grapple and instead just waited for Pyfer to knock him out on the feet. It was a real head scratcher to watch and it almost looked like Meerschaert came in with the goal of getting knocked out in round one. Prior to that, Meerschaert landed a third round submission against a one-dimensional striker in Bruno Silva, in another fight where Meerschaert spent more time on the feet than expected. That came just after he lost a decision to Krzysztof Jotko, who did a good job of stuffing Meerschaert’s takedown attempts. Meerschaert landed three straight submission wins leading up to that loss, after getting knocked out in the first round in back-to-back 2020 matches. Meerschaert is 5-4 in his last 9 fights, with all five wins coming by submission and three of the four losses ending in first round knockouts. Three of those five submission wins came in round three, with the other two split between the first two rounds.
Now 35-16 as a pro, Meerschaert has six wins by KO/TKO, 27 submissions, and amazingly just two decision victories in his 51 pro fights. His last seven wins have all come by submission, with six of those ending in the later rounds, including four in round three. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted eight more, and has four decision losses. He’s lost his last four fights that have gone the distance and hasn’t won a decision since 2013. However, he’s only been to three decisions since 2014 and two of those were split. The first seven losses of his career all ended in first round submissions, including one to the notorious Jay Ellis, who’s currently sporting an impressive 16-108 record. However, Meerschaert has only been submitted once since 2013, which came in the first round of a 2018 fight against Jack Hermansson. Three of Meerschaert’s four knockout losses also ended in round one, with the other occurring early in round two. So 11 of his 12 early losses ended in the first round. Meerschaert fought at 170 lb early in his pro career, but transitioned to 185 lb in 2013-2014, where he’s essentially stayed since, although he did venture up to 205 lb once in 2016.
While Meerschaert is a BJJ black belt and a solid grappler, he has a suspect chin and three of his last four losses ended in quick knockouts. Seven of his UFC fights ended in the first round (3-4), four ended in round two (3-1), four more ended in round three (4-0) and three went the distance (0-3). So we’ve consistently seen him struggle early on in fights and with the judges, but he finds ways to land late finishes and has only once been finished in the later rounds himself. He’s landed 20 takedowns on 53 attempts in his 18 UFC fights (37.7% accuracy), averaging 2.1 takedowns per 15 minutes. Only once in his last 10 fights has he taken an opponent down more than once, but he’ll gladly go to the ground by any means necessary, even if it means working off his back, as he has just a 29% takedown defense. After his last fight, Meerschaert moved his family down to Florida and he’s training full time at Kill Cliff FC now, opposed to just going down there for his camps. Meerschaert said he had some issues going into his last fight but is having a better camp for this one, so we’ll see if that changes anything or if it’s just an excuse for his wretched performance in his last outing.
Fight Prediction:
Meerschaert will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while Petroski is three years younger than the 35-year-old Meerschaert.
Petroski has been asking for this matchup for a while so clearly he likes his chances in it, and this will be the second straight time that his team prepared one of their fighters to face Meerschaert. Petroski has said he wants to come in and submit Meerschaert to prove how good of a grappler he is and Meerschaert’s last seven wins have all come by submission, as well 8 of his 16 career losses, so there’s a good chance someone gets submitted here. Meerschaert has a long history of either getting finished in the first round or coming back to land a finish of his own in the later rounds, and we have no reason to think that changes here. So the two most likely outcomes are either a Petroski first round finish or a Meerschaert late submission win. After seeing the shenanigans that Meerschaert pulled in his last match, we have absolutely no reason to trust him to fight smart and his lack of chin also leaves open the possibility for him to get knocked out quickly once again. With multiple ways of landing a quick finish, we’re taking Petroski to end this in the first round, but Meerschaert is such a wildcard that it’s not the most confident pick, as sometimes Meerschaert will looks great and other times he’ll look like the worst fighter on the roster.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Submission” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Petroski has been a consistent DFS producer, averaging 105 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins. He’s shown the ability to rack up takedowns and control time, and eight of his nine career wins have come early. He was still able to score 104 DraftKings points in his recent decision victory, showing solid potential even in fights that go the distance. Now he’s facing an opponent in Meerschaert who’s been prone to getting finished in the first round and who hasn’t won a decision since 2013. So as long as Petroski can avoid getting submitted himself, he should be in a good position to win this fight and score well. Just keep in mind, Meerschaert has a knack for landing late round finishes and has far more experience than Petroski. So it’s far from a sure thing that Petroski can remain out of danger, but he’s got solid scoring potential if he can. The odds imply Petroski has a 66% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Meerschaert has 10 wins in the UFC, with all of those ending early, including nine by submission. However, seven of his last eight finishes have come in the later rounds, with his last two ending in round three. And because he has only landed more than one takedown once in his last 11 fights and averages just 3.11 SSL/min, he often struggles to put up really big scores. His last two submission wins only returned DraftKings scores of 85 and 62 and he also scored just 77 points in a 2019 third round submission victory, leaving him more reliant on landing a finish in the first two rounds to really score well. While his cheaper price tag does widen the range of acceptable scoring outcomes for him, he failed to crack the winning lineup on either DraftKings or FanDuel in either of his last two finishes. He’s also been very prone to getting finished in the first round, leaving him with a non-existent floor and an uncertain ceiling. We did see Petroski get submitted in the second round on TUF in 2021, so it’s definitely possible Meerschaert can lock something up as well. The odds imply Meerschaert has a 34% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Brad Katona
5th UFC Fight (2-2)This is the Bantamweight finals for The Ultimate Fighter.
Katona won a pair of decisions on TUF to secure his spot in the finals for the second time, after he won the 2018 edition of TUF. His first two wins in that 2018 season aged pretty well, as he won a decision over Kyler Phillips and then submitted Bryce Mitchell, before winning a decision in the finals over Jay Cucciniello. He then won another decision in his second UFC fight, before dropping a pair of decisions against Merab Dvalishvili and Hunter Azure. After going 2-2 in four straight decisions, he was released from the UFC in 2019. He then took all of 2020 off before joining Brave CF in 2021, where he won four straight fights, beginning with a third round submission followed by three straight decisions. Katona’s most recent win came in a dubious split decision on TUF against Timur Valiev that definitely could have gone the other way.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Katona has one knockout win, three submissions, and eight decision victories. His lone knockout came in the first round of his 2014 pro debut and two of his three submission wins occurred in his first five pro fights. He only has one official finish since 2017, although did submit Bryce Mitchell in a 2018 fight that went down as an exhibition match on DWCS. Katona has fought anywhere from 135 lb to 155 lb in the past, but most of his career has been spent at 135 lb. He did compete at 145 lb in his first time on TUF, but dropped down to 135 lb in his second UFC fight in 2018, and that’s where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Katona is a cringey decision grinder with a background in karate, who will also mix in wrestling and is good at slowing fights down and controlling opponents at times. He holds black belts in both karate and BJJ, but isn’t much of a finishing threat, outside of occasionally fishing for a submission. He’s decently well rounded, but doesn’t really stand out anywhere and makes for boring fights. While he was born in Canada, he trains at SBG Ireland with Conor McGregor, which created a lot of friction on TUF after he was selected to be on Chandler’s team. He later switched teams to reunite with his SBG coaches after McGregor’s first six fighters all lost. That just created even more bad blood between Katona and the members of Team Chandler, especially with his roommate on the show…Cody Gibson. In his previous four UFC fights, Katona landed 5 of his 22 takedown attempts (22.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 9 of their 17 attempts (47.1% defense).
Cody Gibson
5th UFC Fight (1-3)Gibson landed back-to-back first round finishes on TUF, with the first of those ending in a TKO and the second a submission. He suffered a partial MCL tear in that first fight, but toughed through it and still won his second match despite the injury. Gibson originally joined the UFC all the way back in 2014 and coincidentally made his short notice debut against Aljamain Sterling, who was also debuting. Gibson gave Sterling a run for his money and took Sterling down four times in the match, but Sterling took over in the third round to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. Gibson followed that up with a 38 second R1 TKO win that had somewhat of a quick/controversial stoppage. Gibson then got submitted himself in the second round of his next fight, before losing a decision to a really tough Douglas Silva de Andrade. Gibson was then released in 2015 and has since gone 7-2, not counting his two exhibition wins on TUF. He notably has a decision win over John Dodson in 2021, but followed that up with a decision loss to Ray Borg. So Gibson has fought plenty of legitimate competition, although has had mixed results in those fights.
Now 19-8 as a pro, Gibson has seven wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and eight decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted four times and has four decision losses. All four of his submission losses occurred in the later rounds, with the last three of those coming via guillotine.
Overall, Gibson is a well-rounded fighter with a wrestling background and a BJJ brown belt, who has really good size for the 135 lb division at 5’10” tall. He’s dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but has been prone to getting guillotined.In his four UFC fights, Gibson has landed 5 of his 13 takedown attempts (38.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 5 of their 12 attempts (58.3% defense). While Gibson hurt his knee on TUF, he said he’s all the way back to full health now and the knee is of no concern.
Fight Prediction:
Gibson will have a 4” height advantage and 7” reach advantage. Katona is four years younger than the 35-year-old Gibson.
This is an interesting matchup between two guys that come in with some animosity towards one another, as they battle to see who will make it back to the UFC. Gibson is the taller, longer, and more aggressive fighter, while Katona is far more patient and tactical. Gibson is far more of a crowd pleaser and the UFC would much rather bring him back on than Katona, but both guys appear capable of winning this one. Katona has never been finished, while Gibson has been prone to getting guillotined. Katona will look for occasional submissions, but rarely completes anything and only has one finish since 2017, although it was notably by guillotine. If Katona were to find a finish here, that would be the most likely method. However, Katona has been largely content with grinding out decisions and that’s his most likely path to victory. However, Gibson’s size and wrestling could give him trouble and we expect Gibson to be the one pushing forward and forcing the action. That could help to sway the judges in his favor if this goes the distance, although Katona has shown a knack for winning close decisions lately. Whoever can control the grappling exchanges will likely win the fight and historically Katona has done a better job of controlling opponents than Gibson. So we’ll give the slight edge to Katona to win a decision from a pure pick’em standpoint, with a slight chance he can lock up a submission in the later rounds. However we won’t be at all shocked if Gibson pulls off the upset and we’re not especially confident in either one of these two.
Our favorite bet here is “Katona/Gibson Fight Ends in SUB” at +420.
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DFS Implications:
Katona is a decision grinder who’s gone the distance in eight of his last nine fights (6-2), not even counting his two decision wins on TUF. All four of his previous UFC fights ended with the judges (2-2), with Katona scoring 63 and 93 DraftKings points in those two wins. While Katona is a BJJ black belt, he only has one finish since 2017, which was a 2021 R3 guillotine. Gibson has been prone to getting submitted, specifically by guillotine, so there’s a chance Katona could wrap up his neck and find a finish. However, it’s more likely that if Katona wins it will come by decision. Katona doesn’t land a ton of strikes so he would need to dominate this fight on the mat to score well on DraftKings without a finish. While that’s not impossible, Gibson does have a wrestling background and it’s not a great matchup for Katona to dominate him on the ground. Gibson is also really tall and long, which could give Katona trouble closing the distance and finding his range, so we’re not terribly excited about playing Katona as the favorite, but he looks like a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel. The odds imply Katona has a 58% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Gibson finished both of his TUF opponents in the first round, but neither of those guys was any good and Katona will be a much tougher opponent to get out of there and nobody’s ever been able to do it. Gibson failed to win either of the two decisions he went to in his first stint with the UFC, and only scored 12 and 36 points respectively in those two losses, albeit against really tough opponents. However, those fights did take place all the way back in 2014 and 2015 so a lot could have changed in the last decade. Not counting his TUF fights, three of his last five pro matches went the distance and Gibson only has two official finishes since 2017. So it’s hard to know if his recent two finishes on TUF were just a product of the level of competition he was facing or if he can be a real finishing threat at the UFC level. However, the upside is at least there, even if this doesn’t look like a great matchup for him to find a finish. Gibson’s wrestling background also provides him a way to score well in a decision if he can land takedowns and control Katona on the mat. So there are multiple ways for Gibson to score well and at his cheap price tag he doesn't need to put up a huge score to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply Gibson has a 42% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Austin Hubbard
8th UFC Fight (3-4)This is the Lightweight finals for The Ultimate Fighter.
Hubbard previously went 3-4 in the UFC, as he traded wins and losses from 2019 to 2021 before being released following a decision defeat against Vinc Pichel. Hubbard’s three UFC wins were against two fighters making their UFC debuts and another that came in 0-1 with the organization and then got cut. None of those three fighters are still in the UFC. Five of Hubbard’s seven UFC fights went the distance, with the two exceptions being a R2 “TKO” win when Max Rohskopf quit on the stool before the third round started, and a R1 submission loss to Joe Solecki. Hubbard’s only other finish in his last 13 fights was a 2018 R5 TKO just before he joined the UFC. And the only other time he’s been finished in his career was in a 2016 submission. Following the 2020 submission loss to Solecki, Hubbard fought to four decisions (3-1), before going on TUF and winning two more decisions. There were six Lightweight fights leading up to the finals on TUF. Four of those fights ended early. The other two involved Austin Hubbard.
Now 15-6 as a pro, Hubbard has five wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and eight decision victories. Four of his seven finishes came in his first four pro fights in 2015 and 2016, with his other three finishes occurring in 2017, 2018, and 2020. He’s never been knocked out himself, but he’s been submitted twice and has four decision losses. Hubbard started his career at 170 lb, but has been at 155 lb since 2017.
Overall, Hubbard’s best attribute is his durability and he lacks any sort of explosive offense, but he does a decent job of landing leg kicks. In his previous seven UFC fights, he only averaged 3.67 SSL/min and 2.97/min. He landed 8 of his 13 takedown attempts (61.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 14 of their 38 attempts (63.2% defense). His takedown attempts have been sporadic, and he went 7 for 12 in two of his fights and 1 for 1 in his other five. But in fairness, the times he wasn’t looking for takedowns was when he was facing grapplers/wrestlers. In the end, Hubbard is a boring decision grinder who Dana White would probably prefer didn’t win his spot back on the roster.
Kurt Holobaugh
5th UFC Fight (0-4)Getting a rare third opportunity in the UFC, Holobaugh originally made his UFC debut in 2013 at 145 lb after Strikeforce merged with the UFC, but lost a decision and was immediately released. After going 8-2 in his next 10 fights on the regional scene, Holobaugh took part in the inaugural episode of DWCS in 2017, where he landed a first round knockout in a 145 lb fight against Matt Bessette. However, the results were overturned to a No Contest and Holobaugh was suspended for nine months when it was discovered that Holobaugh used an unauthorized IV to rehydrate after weigh-ins. After serving his suspension, the UFC brought Holobaugh back on to face a debuting Raoni Barcelos, who knocked Holobaugh out in the third round of an action-packed fight. Holobaugh compounded the loss when he got submitted by Shane Burgos in the first round of his next fight, although Holobaugh dropped Burgos before getting armbarred as he went in for the kill on the mat. Holobaugh then moved up to 155 lb in 2019 in a decision loss to Thiago Moises that resulted in Holobaugh getting released for the second time. He bounced back with a pair of knockout wins on the regional scene in 2020 and 2021, both at 155 lb, but then took a year and a half off before going on TUF (also at 155 lb) in early 2023. He was losing his first fight on the show before landing a submission in the second round to steal victory from the jaws of defeat. He then took part in a wild brawl against Jason Knight, controlling the center of the Octagon and pushing Knight back until he eventually knocked him out in the second round to secure a spot in the finals.
Now 19-7 as a pro (not counting his two “exhibition” matches on TUF), Holobaugh has seven wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has five decision victories. Eight of his last nine official pro fights ended early, as did both of his TUF fights, which go down as exhibition matches and don’t show up on his pro record. Holobaugh has only been to one decision since 2016, which was his 2019 loss to Moises in Holobaugh’s UFC Lightweight debut. Holobaugh has gone back and forth between 145 lb and 155 lb throughout his career, with three of his four UFC losses coming at 145 lb, but he’s stayed at 155 lb since 2019.
Overall, Holobaugh is a 36-year-old aggressive striker who’s trying to make one last UFC run before hanging it up. While he’s a BJJ black belt, he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2016. With his second most recent submission win coming all the way back in 2013. He’s also not a very good wrestler and he’s been controlled on the mat for extended periods of time at multiple points in his career. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS match, Holobaugh landed 4 of his 11 takedown attempts (36.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 8 of their 14 attempts (42.9% defense). He also got taken down three times on six attempts and controlled for nearly 12 minutes in his lone Strikeforce match, which the UFC includes in his official stats. While his career striking numbers don’t jump off the page at 4.51 SSL/min and 4.28 SSA/min, when he gets an opponent who’s willing to stand and trade with him, we get unadulterated violence, as we saw in his DWCS match (15.75 SSL/min and 9.05 SSA/min) and to some degree against Raoni Barcelos (8.88 SSL/min and 7.14 SSA/min), even with Barcelos taking Holobaugh down three times and controlling him for two and a half minutes. We also saw a crazy high pace in his recent R2 KO win over Jason Knight on DWCS.
Fight Prediction:
Holobaugh will have a 1” height advantage, but Hubbard will have a 1” reach advantage.
These two should be very familiar with one another, as they lived and trained together for three months on The Ultimate Fighter, where they were both part of Team Chandler. The most recent memory of Holobaugh is of him knocking out another teammate in Jason Knight in the semifinals, and it would be very surprising if Hubbard didn’t come in looking to wrestle to avoid a similar fate. Hubbard has made a career out of grinding out decision wins and that will be his path to victory once again here. No one has ever landed more than 71 significant strikes against Hubbard, which greatly lowers the chances that we see a wild brawl like Holobaugh’s last TUF match. However, Holobaugh should be able to put a pace on Hubbard for as long as he can remain upright and off the fence, which gives him a shot at either landing a knockout or doing enough with his striking to outweigh the takedowns and control time of Hubbard to win a close decision. Holobaugh also has some submission skills in his back pocket, and Hubbard has been submitted twice in the past, so that just creates one more possible path to victory for Holobaugh. While our expectation is that Hubbard will find some success in landing takedowns and controlling Holobaugh, we still see more ways for Holobaugh to win this fight and at plus money it’s hard not to like him. If anyone lands a finish it will be Holobaugh, but we like this to end in a close decision that could go either way depending on how the judges value striking versus grappling. Holobaugh by split decision will be our pick,
Our favorite bet here is “Holobaugh’s ML” at +145.
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DFS Implications:
Hubbard has been extremely consistent in his DraftKings scoring with totals of 96, 93 and 93 across his three UFC wins. Two of those wins went the distance, while the other ended in a post R2 “TKO” after Max Rohskopf abruptly quit. That’s the only “finish” Hubbard has landed since 2018, just before he originally joined the UFC in 2019. So while he’s shown a solid floor when he wins, we’ve yet to see any sort of ceiling out of him. However, now he’ll face an aggressive brawler who struggles with being taken down and controlled, so this is as favorable a matchup for Hubbard to score well as he’s gonna get. It sets up well for Hubbard to land more strikes than normal on the feet and also rack up grappling stats, which adds to his DraftKings appeal. We’d still be surprised to see Hubbard land a finish, but if he can win he’ll have a solid floor and a chance of finally reaching 100 points if he can find wrestling success and stay active on the mat. The odds imply Hubbard has a 61% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Holobaugh is coming into the UFC for an unheard of third time, but has yet to win a fight with the organization in his four attempts. He’s also now 36 years old and hasn’t had an official pro fight since 2021, as fights on The Ultimate Fighter technically go down as exhibition matches. However, he finished both of his opponents on the show and really showcased his striking in his last fight after landing a comeback submission win in his first bout. His high striking volume gives him a huge scoring ceiling on all DFS platforms, and he’s also a BJJ black belt with some submission abilities. However, his glaring weakness is his defensive wrestling and he’s consistently struggled with being taken down and controlled. That makes him a risky play anytime he faces an opponent who can wrestle. While Hubbard is far from a world class grappler, he will look to wrestle given the right matchup, and this is definitely the right matchup. That leaves Holobaugh with a wide range of potential scoring outcomes and he’ll need to avoid getting controlled for extended periods of time. These two were teammates on the show and know each other well by now, so they should both be fully aware of what they need to do to win the fight, and it’s hard to see a world where Hubbard doesn’t look to lean on his wrestling. That takes some of the shine off of Holobaugh, but he still has the potential to finish Hubbard on the feet or the mat, or win a close decision where the judges value striking over grappling. And at his cheap price tag, Holobaugh likely won’t need to put up a huge score to crack winning lineups, but there are still ways he wins a low-volume decision after getting controlled for periods of time and doesn’t score quite enough to be useful. The odds imply Holobaugh has a 39% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Gregory Rodrigues
7th UFC Fight (4-2)This matchup had originally been booked back in June but Tiuliulin pulled out and it got pushed back two months.
Rodrigues will be looking to bounce back from a violent first round knockout loss against a short notice debuting opponent in Brunno Ferreira, who has since been knocked out himself in the first round of his next fight. That snapped a two fight winning streak for Rodrigues, whose last three fights have all ended in knockouts in under six and a half minutes. Rodrigues almost got finished in the first round of his second most recent fight also, when Chidi Njokuani split Rodrigues open so badly it looked like his face was peeling off. The cut was so bad that Rodrigues actually looked for takedowns for once, but was unable to complete either of his two attempts in the first round. The tides began to turn late in the round as Njokuani slowed down and Rodrigues began to put it on him. That momentum carried into round two where Rodrigues landed a takedown and finished Njokuani with ground and pound. Just before that, Rodrigues became the first fighter to ever finish Julian Marquez, and did so in an impressive first round knockout, where Rodrigues landed a ridiculous three knockdowns in less than three and a half minutes of action. That came just after Rodrigues suffered his first UFC loss in a questionable split decision against Armen Petrosyan, where Rodrigues showed a non-existent fight IQ by refusing to grapple in the first half of the fight against a one-dimensional kickboxer who’s helpless on the mat. Rodrigues is also the only fighter to ever knock out a very durable Jun Yong Park and Rodrigues’ last three wins all ended in knockouts in the first two rounds, after he won a decision over Dusko Todorovic in his 2021 short notice UFC debut.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Rodrigues has eight wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decision victories. His knockout wins have been split evenly across the first two rounds, while he has two first round submission wins and one early in round two. He’s only landed one finish beyond the midway point of round two which came at the 8:13 point against Jun Yong Park. He’s been knocked out in the first round three times, with his other two losses ending in split decisions. One of his three KO losses came in his 2014 pro debut against an opponent who also had zero professional fights, another was on DWCS in 2020 against Jordan Williams, who is now 0-3, and his third came in his most recent match against a short notice debuting opponent. So his early losses have all come in surprising spots against not the toughest level of competition. Rodrigues hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and hasn’t looked especially sharp on the mat, despite his celebrated jiu-jitsu background. He also hasn't shown much of an interest in going to the mat as he appears to have fallen in love with his striking and his last six finishes have all ended in knockouts. Rodrigues has only seen the third round twice in his last 10, with both of those matches going the distance (1-1). His other eight most recent matches all ended in knockouts in the first two rounds (6-2), with five of those ending in round one (3-2) and three ending in round two (3-0). Rodrigues has won 6 of his last 8 and 12 of his last 15 fights.
Overall, Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt and 8-time National BJJ Champion, but prefers to bang it out on the feet. He has solid power, and is an overall good striker, but he’s also looked pretty hittable, averaging 6.09 SSL/min and 5.82 SSA/min. He hasn’t lived up to his grappling resume so far in the UFC and at this point we’ve fully given up on him to utilize his ground game even in favorable matchups. With that said, he will mix in occasional takedowns and he’s landed at least one takedown in four of his six UFC fights, although just one in his last three matches. When he has landed takedowns, he hasn’t done a great job of controlling opponents on the mat. He consistently finds himself getting sucked into brawls, which makes for exciting but dicey fights. Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Rodrigues has landed 8 of his 16 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while successfully defending all six of the attempts against him. Now that he’s coming off his first early loss in the UFC, it will be interesting to see if Rodrigues considers grappling a little bit more as he faces a one-dimensional power puncher with no ground game.
Denis Tiuliulin
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Continuing to trade knockout wins and submission losses over his last six fights, Tiuliulin just got choked out in the first round by Jun Yong Park and will now likely be fighting for his job as he sits on a 1-2 UFC record. Tiuliulin’s only UFC win came in a second round TKO victory over Jamie Pickett in his second most recent fight, after he got submitted in the second round of his March 2022 UFC short notice debut. Tiuliulin’s last eight fights all ended early (5-3), and only two of his last 16 matches made it to the judges (0-2).
Now 10-7 as a pro, Tiuliulin has nine wins by KO/TKO and one decision victory. His last nine wins all ended in knockouts, after he won a two-round decision in his 2013 pro debut. All nine of his knockouts came in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one and three in round two. He’s been knocked out once himself, submitted four times, and has two decision losses. His lone knockout loss came in the first round of his third pro fight back in 2013 and his last four early losses all ended in submissions, with one in round one, two in round two, and the other in round three. He’s 0-3 in fights that have seen the third round with two split-decision losses on top of a submission defeat. Amazingly, Tiuliulin has competed anywhere from 155 to 205 lb in the past, but his last 11 fights have all been at 185 lb.
Overall, Tiuliulin has a background in Thai boxing and doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling. While he’s got solid power, he’s very one-dimensional, has bad cardio, and he gets taken down and controlled far too easily. Only 3 of 10 career wins have come against opponents with winning records, so most of his victories have come against very questionable competition. He’s really struggled against anyone with decent grappling, which will continue to be an issue for him in the UFC, if he makes it past this next fight. In his three UFC matches, he’s been taken down by his opponents on 3 of 11 attempts (72.7% defense), and submitted in both of the fights where he gave up a takedown. He’s attempted two takedowns of his own, but failed to land either of them.
Fight Prediction:
Rodrigues will have a 2” height advantage, but Tiuliulin will have a 2” reach advantage. Rodrigues is allegedly four years younger than the 35-year-old Tiuliulin.
Tiuliulin continues to show a non-existent ground game every time fights hit the mat, but Rodrigues has proven time and time again that he would rather get knocked out cold than rely on his grappling to win fights. However, if there was ever a time for that to change it would be here. Rodrigues just got knocked out for the first time in the UFC and Tiuliulin is so unbelievably bad on that mat that Rodrigues could trip and fall into a submission win. However, we still can’t trust Rodrigues to do the smart thing here, and until Rodrigues proves differently we have to work under the assumption that he would prefer to keep fights standing, as he’s shown that time and time again. To be clear, he will mix in occasional takedown attempts, that’s just not the focal point of his game plans and he hasn’t submitted anybody in any of his last 11 fights dating back to 2018. Could he finally land a submission here? Absolutely. Will he? Probably only if he can’t knock Tiuliulin out first. That lowers the chances of a quick submission, and if he does look to finish the fight on the mat it will likely come either late in round one or in round two. Tiuliulin has decent power and Rodrigues is stupid enough to stand in front of him and eat punches, but we still like Rodrigues to finish Tiuliulin in the opening two rounds and we’ll say Rodrigues lands a finish in the first half of round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Rodrigues R2” at +480.
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DFS Implications:
Rodrigues has continued to put up slate-breaking scores in his last three wins, averaging 123 DraftKings points in those three knockouts, but then just got knocked out himself in his last match. Eleven of his 13 pro wins have come early, with all of those ending in the first two rounds. Despite being a decent grappler, he prefers to brawl it out on the feet, and has a near non-existent fight IQ. However, his kill or get killed mentality is great for DFS and raises the scoring potential in all of his fights. He’s facing a one-dimensional striker here, so if Rodrigues wants to he could have a ton of grappling success, but unless you’re into asphyxiation you probably don’t want to hold your breath on that one. Rodrigues has been knocked out in the first round in three of his five career losses, leaving him with a shaky floor, but his scoring ceiling is immense and he’s already knocked out two durable guys in the UFC that had never been knocked out before. Whoever wins this fight should put up a big score and the FDGTD line is set at -650. The odds imply Rodrigues has a 75% chance to win, a 62% chance to land a finish, and a 40% chance it comes in round one.
Tiuliulin is a KO or bust boxer who offers nothing in terms of grappling but has landed knockouts in his last nine career wins, with six of those ending in round one and three in round two. Any grappler with a brain would immediately take Tiuliulin down and submit him. However, while Rodrigues has a celebrated jiu jitsu background, he fights like he just had a lobotomy. That should give Tiuliulin the opportunity to land the knockout he needs to win, and as the second cheapest fighter on the card it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups if he pulls that off. Tiuliulin scored a ridiculous 124 DraftKings points in his lone UFC win, which came late in the second round against a terrible Jamie Pickett. While we expect Rodrigues to be the one who finds a finish here, you always want to target both sides of his fights and Tiuliulin offers tournament winning upside if he can find a finish. The odds imply Tiuliulin has a 25% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Brad Tavares
23rd UFC Fight (14-8)Looking to bounce back from a R1 TKO loss to Bruno Silva, Tavares has lost two straight and four of his last six fights. His only two wins since 2018 were a pair of 2021 decisions against Omari Akhmedov and Antonio Carlos Jr. Two of Tavares’ last three losses ended in first round knockouts, but he did show the ability to go the distance against Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya in his last two decision losses. The last time Tavares finished anybody was in 2018, when he knocked out Krzysztof Jotko in the third round. His second most recent finish was all the way back in 2011, and amazingly, Tavares has just one early win in his last 20 fights. Sixteen of his 22 UFC fights have gone the distance (12-4), with his other six matches ending in knockouts (2-4). Tavares took all of 2020 off after undergoing ACL surgery, before returning to win decisions over Antonio Carlos Jr. and Omari Akhmedov, both of whom have since been cut by the UFC.
Now 19-8 as a pro, Tavares has five wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and 12 decision victories. He’s been knocked out four times and has four decision losses. Six of his seven finishes occurred in his first seven pro fights from 2007 to 2011. Eleven of his last 16 fights have gone the distance, but he’s also been knocked out four times in the first two rounds over that stretch as well.
Overall, Tavares is a low-volume striker who has decent power but rarely finishes anybody. He only averages 3.32 SSL/min and has only landed more than 84 significant strikes once in 22 UFC appearances. He’s also only landed one takedowns in his last eight fights and doesn't add much in terms of offensive grappling, but does have a solid 80% takedown defense.
Chris Weidman
18th UFC Fight (11-6)Now 39 years old and coming off a 28 month layoff, Weidman suffered a horrific leg injury in his last fight that looked like it would be the end of his career, but he refused to hang it up. After healing up and learning how to walk again, who knows how much of anything Weidman has left in the tank. He wasn’t exactly crushing it before the injury, and he’s just 2-6 in his last eight fights, with just one win since 2017, which was a 2020 wrestling-heavy decision over Omari Akhmedov. Weidman’s only fight in the last three years lasted just 17 seconds against Uriah Hall before Weidman snapped his own leg as he threw a kick, which was the only strike landed in the fight. Weidman was made famous by dethroning a 38-year-old Anderson Silva back in 2013 and then sort of solidifying the win with a follow up R2 TKO by freak leg injury as Silva’s leg snapped in their rematch, eerily similar to Weidman’s injury in his last fight. Weidman made a career out of defeating aging opponents, but things have been going sideways for him since 2015.
Now 15-6 as a pro, Weidman has six wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and five decision wins. He’s been knocked out in all six of his losses. He’s only landed one finish since 2015, which was a 2017 third round submission against an undersized Kelvin Gastelum.
Overall, Weidman is a washed up wrestler who should have retired years ago. He only averages 3.03 SSL/min and 3.14 SSA/min, but lands 3.9 TD/min and does a decent job of controlling opponents. Durability has been a concern for him, with all of his losses ending in KO/TKOs, and now 39 years old and coming off a two and a half year layoff it’s hard to imagine that will have improved any. However, the UFC matched him up with an opponent who only has one finish in the last 12 years, so maybe they don’t want to see Weidman die in the Octagon. If he gets knocked out by Tavares they may just need to take him out back behind the shed, because Weidman clearly doesn’t know when to quit.
Fight Prediction:
Weidman will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while Tavares is four years younger than the 39-year-old Weidman.
We see this fight going one of two ways—either Weidman has literally nothing left in the tank and will become just the second fighter to get knocked out by Tavares in the last 12 years, or Weidman will make this fight really ugly and grind out a decision win by controlling Tavares along the fence and on the mat. Concerning for that scenario is that Tavares has a really solid 80% takedown defense, but we could see Weidman just hold Tavares up against the cage if he’s unable to get him down. We really don’t know where Weidman is at right now physically after so long away, which leaves this as a more volatile fight, but with so many red flags surrounding him it’s hard to have any confidence in him. So we’ll lean slightly towards Tavares knocking him out, but we won’t be surprised if this one gets real ugly and Weidman squeaks out a decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Weidman DEC” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Tavares has failed to top 81 DraftKings points in 17 straight fights going back to 2012. He’s a low-volume striker with just two takedowns landed in his last 11 fights, and even in a 2018 third round KO, he still scored just 81 points. So overall he looks like a KO or bust play who needs a finish in the first two rounds to score well, and he only has one early win since 2011. Working in his favor, he’s going against a washed up opponent who’s been knocked out in all six of his losses and is coming off a terrible leg break followed by a two and a half year layoff. So if Tavares was ever going to land another knockout, this would definitely be the time. However, Weidman will also likely be looking to take Tavares down and control him, which if successful, could limit Tavares’ opportunities of landing the knockout he needs to score well. Ultimately, it’s a volatile spot between two aging veterans and we could see a wide range of potential scoring outcomes. Tavares’ expensive price tag could easily result in him getting priced out of winning lineups even if he does land a knockout, but it will also help to keep his ownership down. This is one of those stupid fights where Tavares could randomly land four knockdowns or an immediate finish in the opening 30 seconds and score a million points, or he could finish with 12 points in a decision loss. Embrace the volatility or complain about it later, the choice is yours. The odds imply Tavares has a 69% chance to win, a 38% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Weidman has averaged a respectable 101 DraftKings points in his 11 UFC wins, but is now 39 years old, coming off a devastating leg injury and hasn’t fought in two and half years. He’s also just 2-6 in his last eight fights and his last three wins occurred in 2020, 2017, and 2015. His wrestling background makes him a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but Tavares notably has an 80% takedown defense and isn’t an easy guy to get down. It’s possible Weidman can just control him along the fence and rack up clinch strikes and control time, but that may be Weidman’s only realistic path to victory. Both guys have been prone to getting knocked out, so neither of them has a safe floor and this is a gross/volatile matchup that could go a lot of ways. There’s a decent chance Weidman gets knocked out, leaving him with literally a zero point floor, but if he can pull off the upset he’ll have a really good shot at ending up in winning DraftKings lineups at his cheap price tag. The odds imply Weidman has a 31% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Marlon Vera
22nd UFC Fight (14-7)Vera was originally booked against Henry Cejudo here, but Cejudo pulled out and Munhoz was announced as the replacement seven weeks out.
Coming off his first defeat in his last five fights, Vera lost a five-round split-decision to Cory Sandhagen this past March. Sandhagen was able to lean on his wrestling early to secure the first two rounds and landed three takedowns with seven minutes of control time in the fight, while also leading 128-58 in significant strikes and 187-73 in total strikes. Amazingly one judge still scored the fight for Vera. Prior to that loss, Vera knocked out Dominick Cruz in the fourth round, after winning a five round decision over Rob Font, and Vera’s last three fights were all scheduled to go three rounds. Leading up to his string of main events, Vera knocked out a washed up Frankie Edgar in the third round, after winning a three-round decision over Davey Grant and losing a three-round decision to Jose Aldo. Vera’s last six fights all made it to the third round, with four of those going the distance. The last time one of his fights ended in the opening 10 minutes was in his 2020 R1 TKO win over Sean O’Malley. Vera has gone 10-4 in his last 13 fights, with those three losses coming in decisions against Cory Sandhagen, Jose Aldo, and Song Yadong. While two of Vera’s last four wins went the distance, his other eight most recent victories all ended early.
Now 20-8-1 as a pro, Vera has eight wins by KO/TKO, eight more by submission, and four decision victories. He’s never been finished, with all eight of his career losses going the distance. He’s gone just 3-7 with the judges in the UFC, but won two of the last three decisions he’s been, after going 1-6 in his first seven decisions with the organization. Eleven of his 14 UFC wins have come early, with four of those 11 finishes ending in submissions. Only one of those submission wins ended in round one, while three occurred in round two. His other seven UFC finishes came by KO/TKO, with two ending in round one, one in round two, three in round three, and one in round four. Only one of his last nine fights ended in the first round (O’Malley leg injury). While Vera’s 16 career finishes have been split evenly between knockouts and submissions, his last four early wins all came by KO/TKO, with three of those ending in round three or four.
Overall, Vera is a BJJ black belt and a well rounded fighter who’s been extremely durable. Despite having 21 UFC fights under his belt, he’s still only 30 years old. He absorbs more significant strikes than he lands, as he’s averaged 4.09 SSL/min and 5.02 SSA/min in his career. That leaves him reliant on landing damage opposed to volume, and he’s been a slow starter at times. That helps to explain why he’s landed so many late round finishes, as he’s often having to come back to win fights after losing early rounds. In his last 10 UFC fights, Vera only landed five takedowns on 11 attempts (45.6% accuracy), while his opponents took him down 11 times on 38 attempts (71.1% defense). He didn’t land any takedowns in his last four matches, and hasn’t been looking to wrestle much. One annoying thing with Vera is that he doesn’t always go in for the kill after hurting his opponents and likes to showboat at times, which is how Rob Font was able to survive to see the scorecards. Vera has only lost two fights in a row once in his career, and generally does a good job bouncing back from adversity, so we expect to see a better performance from him here compared to his last outing.
Pedro Munhoz
20th UFC Fight (10-7, 2 NC)Munhoz is coming off his first win since early 2021 and is just 2-4 plus a NC in his last seven outings. That recent victory came in a low-volume unanimous 30-27 decision over a tough Chris Gutierrez, who actually outlanded Munhoz in every round, but got dropped by Munhoz in round one. Prior to that win, Munhoz had a No Contest against Sean O'Malley after he complained of an eye poke that ironically no one but him really saw. That had largely been a lackluster fight up to that point, but it was very close and Munhoz won the first round on two of the three scorecards as he landed nothing but leg kicks. Just before that, Munhoz fought to five straight decisions, losing back-to-back decisions against Dominick Cruz and Jose Aldo, after winning a 2021 decision over Jimmy Rivera, and losing a dubious five-round split decision to Frankie Edgar in 2020, after losing a 2019 decision to Aljamain Sterling. The last time Munhoz finished anybody was in 2019 when he knocked out a fragile Cody Garbrandt in the first round.
Now 20-7 as a pro, Munhoz has five wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and seven decision victories. He’s never been finished and all seven of his career losses went the distance. All but one of Munhoz’s 19 UFC fights (not counting his No Contest against O’Malley) either ended in the first round (5-0) or went the distance (4-7), with the one exception being a 2016 R2 guillotine submission win.
Overall, Munhoz is a durable but aging vet who throws a ton of leg kicks and has a mean guillotine choke. He relies on his striking to win fights and hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 10 matches, but he is a BJJ black belt and a judo brown belt. He’s shown the ability to put up striking volume in the past, as he averages 5.30 SSL/min, however he hasn’t topped 75 significant strikes landed in any of his last four fights. He also averages 5.90 SSA/min, and he’s been outlanded in his last three decisions. Munhoz turns 37 in a few weeks, but showed in his last fight he’s not quite ready to hang it up just yet.
Fight Prediction:
Vera will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while he’s also six years younger than the 36-year-old Munhoz.
Both of these guys have 29 pro fights under their belt, but neither has ever been finished, as they’ve both been very durable. That seemingly sets up for this to end in a close decision and they’ve both lost more than they’ve won in UFC decisions. Munhoz is just 4-7 in his 11 UFC decisions, while Vera is just 3-7. Vera is known to be a slow starter and has been in three straight five-round fights, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to going back to a three-round match. Meanwhile, Munhoz is sort of the opposite, as he’s a fast starter with all five of his UFC finishes coming in the first round. That could set up a live betting opportunity with Vera, but it’s so obvious that we expect many people to be taking that approach and the lines will move quickly. While both fighters are dangerous grapplers and BJJ black belts, neither of them looks to wrestle a ton and we’re expecting this one to play out on the feet and end in a close decision that could go either way. Vera generally relies on damage to win his fights, but Munhoz has notably never been knocked down in the UFC and it’s tough to find big moments against him. Vera has lost all four of the UFC decisions he’s been to when he didn’t land either a knockdown or a takedown and Munhoz has a solid 81% takedown defense in addition to having never been knocked down. So we could definitely see Munhoz squeaking out a close decision, although that appears to be his only path to victory. We wouldn’t be that surprised to see Vera hand Munhoz the first early loss of his career, as Munhoz has been facing a string of decision grinders lately, outside of O’Malley. That could be giving people a false sense of confidence in the current status of his chin as he approaches his 37th birthday. We expect Vera to come in with maximum motivation as he tries to climb towards a title shot, and we’ll say Vera loses round one, wins round two, and knocks Munhoz out in round three.
Our favorite bet here is “Vera R2 or R3 KO” at +900.
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DFS Implications:
Vera impressively landed three knockdowns in each of his last two wins, although both of those were five-round fights. His last three matches were all scheduled to go five-rounds, with two of those ending in decisions (1-1) and the other in a R4 knockout win. That inflates his scoring in those fights as he averaged 112 DraftKings points in those two wins, after only averaging 91 DraftKings points in his first 12 UFC victories, despite 10 of those ending early. Vera has never scored more than 108 DraftKings points in a three-round fight and failed to top 98 points in his last five wins in three-round matches. He’s only landed five takedowns on 11 attempts in his last 10 UFC fights, while he averages just 4.09 SSL/min. Most of his finishes have occurred in the later round, but even in his three UFC first round finishes he scored “just” 98, 105, and 92 points. While he’s shown a solid scoring floor, the ceiling hasn’t really been there and he relies heavily on knockdowns and finishes to score well. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s never been knocked down in 19 UFC fights or finished in 29 pro matches. So this looks like a tough spot for Vera to find a finish, and even if he does finish Munhoz there’s a good chance he won’t put up a really big score. That makes it tougher to get excited about playing Vera here, and he’ll likely need this to be a lower scoring card to remain relevant. The odds imply Vera has a 64% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Munhoz has been a R1 finish or bust play in DFS for almost his entire career and failed to top 77 DraftKings points in three of his four decision wins. He’s only won two of his last seven fights, with both of those wins going the distance, where he scored just 72 and 68 points. Now he’s facing an opponent in Vera who’s never been finished in 29 pro fights or knocked down in 21 UFC appearances. Munhoz hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 10 fights and hasn’t topped 75 significant strikes landed in his last four matches, so it’s hard to see him scoring well without a finish and even at his cheap price tag he’ll likely need almost all of the other dogs on the card to fail to serve as a value play in a decision win. Therefore, we don’t have much interest in playing him. The odds imply Munhoz has a 36% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Mario Bautista
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Bautista had been scheduled to fight Cody Garbrandt here, but Garbrandt dropped out and Blackshear was announced as the replacement on Monday, just two days after he fought on last week’s card.
Coming in on a four fight winning streak, Bautista has landed three straight first round submissions against a series of low-level opponents, after winning a decision over another scrub in Jay Perrin. The last time Bautista lost a fight was in March 2021 when Trevin Jones knocked him out early in the second round. Bautista’s only other UFC loss also came in the first round, in a submission against Cory Sandhagen back in 2019. Bautista bounced back from the loss in a high-volume decision win, before handing Miles Johns the only KO loss of his career, and then losing to Jones.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Bautista has three wins by TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. All nine of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with five in round one and four in round two. Both of his losses also come early, with a 2021 R2 TKO against Trevin Jones and a 2019 R1 submission loss to Cory Sandhagen in Bautista’s UFC debut. While his last three fights all ended in round one, seven of his previous eight made it to round two. Six of his eight UFC fights ended in under seven minutes (4-2), with the other two going the distance.
Overall, Bautista has grown into a really well rounded fighter, after looking primarily like a striker earlier in his UFC career. It’s clear he’s made a ton of improvements over the last couple of years, but he’s been facing such a low level of competition that it’s hard to truly gauge just how far he’s come.
He didn’t look to wrestle much in his first four UFC fights, as he had only landed one takedown on three attempts, but he’s landed 10 takedowns on 13 attempts in his last four matches and has now landed 11 takedowns on 16 attempts (68.8% accuracy) in his eight UFC fights. He’s also been taken down 6 times on 16 attempts by his opponents (62.5% defense). He lands a good amount of striking volume, as he averages 5.33 SSL/min and he does a good job of using all his weapons as he mixes in punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. Bautista’s last three fights were all dream spots for him to land submissions, but now he’ll finally face someone that can grapple, albeit on very short notice.
Da'Mon Blackshear
5th UFC Fight (4-1-1)Blackshear is only a week removed from locking up just the third Twister submission in UFC history and he’s victory lapping that win hard as he jumps right back inside the Octagon against a much, much tougher opponent. For context, his recent win came against a debuting opponent, who stepped in on short notice, and has zero grappling abilities. Prior to that, Blackshear notched his first UFC win in a second round TKO against Luan Lacerda, who foolishly committed to looking for a leg lock while Blackshear punched him in the face until the fight was stopped. Looking back one fight further, Blackshear lost a decision to a debuting Farid Basharat, who took Blackshear down three times and controlled him for five and a half minutes. That came after Blackshear fought to a draw in his short notice UFC debut against Youssef Zalal. Blackshear won four straight fights leading up to his UFC debut, with three of those ending in submissions.
Now 14-5-1 as a pro, Blackshear has two wins by TKO, nine submissions, and three decision victories. All five of his losses went the distance, with one of those notably coming against UFC fighter Pat Sabatini and another against former UFC fighter Kris Moutinho. Despite 11 of Blackshear’s 14 pro wins coming early, all but two of his 20 pro fights have made it out of the first round, with 12 making it to round three, and nine going the distance. He has two first round submission wins, four in round two, two in round three, and one in round four. Both of his TKO wins also ended in round two. Blackshear has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb, with five of his earlier career matches up at 145 lb. However, he hasn’t competed at 145 lb since losing a 2018 decision to Pat Sabatini.
Overall, Blackshear is a BJJ black belt and a former high school wrestler who relies very heavily on his grappling. He scrambles well on the mat and does a good job of transitioning and looking for submissions from a variety of positions. Most of his fights end up playing out as grappling battles, with five of his last seven wins ending in submissions. We saw him get exposed on the feet in the third round of his debut against a not very dangerous opponent in Zalal, who fought to seven straight decisions in the UFC before being cut. That leaves us concerned with how Blackshear will do in striking exchanges moving forward at the UFC level. Blackshear had been training at Jackson Wink in New Mexico, but left the gym before his recent win and moved to Miami to look for a new home. In his four UFC fights, Blackshear landed 5 of his 17 takedown attempts (29.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 5 of their 11 attempts (54.5% defense). Blackshear will be cutting weight for the second time in as many weeks, so it will be important to monitor him closely on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Blackshear will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Stylistically, this looks like an interesting test for Bautista because he’s been submitting a bunch of low-level opponents lately and Blackshear is a pretty decent grappler. However, you have to imagine that fighting and cutting weight in back-to-back weeks will take its toll on Blackshear and leave him at least somewhat compromised. That could make the biggest impact on his durability and cardio, which would seemingly increase Bautista’s chances of landing a knockout or a late finish. While Blackshear has never been finished in his career, this will be a step up in competition for him and Bautista is a dangerous striker, in addition to being a threat on the mat. We suspect Blackshear’s grappling will allow him to avoid getting submitted, leaving Bautista’s most likely two paths to victory being a knockout or a decision. It’s not entirely impossible that Blackshear could lock up a hail mary submission, but it is unlikely, and that appears to be his only path to victory. We’re leaning that Bautista wins by decision, but a knockout win for him won’t be at all shocking either.
Our favorite bet here is “ Bautista KO or DEC” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Bautista has been absolutely dominating lately, albeit in one great matchup after the next. He’s scored 104 or more DraftKings points in four straight fights, with his last three wins all ending in first round submissions. Now he’ll face an opponent who just fought a week ago and stepped into this matchup on Monday, but who’s also a much better grappler than anyone Bautista has faced recently. That could result in Bautista looking to strike more, as Blackshear is far more dangerous on the mat than the feet. However, we definitely don’t know that for sure and it’s possible Bautista will want to test his grappling against a tougher test. Blackshear’s takedown defense hasn’t been great and if Bautista decides he wants to go to the ground he shouldn’t have any problem achieving that. Blackshear has never been finished in his career, but he’s also never fought twice in eight days, and we don’t know what toll that will take on his body. If he comes in somewhat compromised from the back-to-back weight cuts then Bautista should have an easier time knocking him out. Bautista has also shown the ability to score decently even without a finish, with DraftKings totals of 93 and 104 in his two UFC decision wins. So as long as Bautista can avoid getting submitted, he should have both a solid scoring floor and ceiling. The short notice nature of this matchup does add some inherent volatility, and Bautista didn’t have much time to prepare for the grappling of Blackshear, but we expect he’ll be able to handle it. The odds imply Bautista has a 66% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Blackshear is just a week removed from his second straight finish and scored 115 and 114 DraftKings points in his recent two wins, after his first two UFC fights both went the distance (0-1-1). He’s primarily a grappler and generally relies on finishes to win fights and score well. He’s facing one of the biggest step ups in competition you could ask for here, as he goes from a dream matchup to a complete nightmare opponent. It will be interesting to see how the field handles that, as he was 40% owned on last week’s card where he was priced at $8,600 and now can be had for just $7,100. While we expect most people to understand the night and day context surrounding that matchup compared to this one, surely his recent success will drive up his ownership to some extent. Ultimately, it’s pretty simple. Blackshear is a hail mary submission or bust play in a really tough matchup under challenging circumstances, who will have his ownership propped up by recent bias. The odds imply Blackshear has a 34% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Ian Garry
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Garry had been scheduled to fight Geoff Neal here, but Neal pulled out and Magny was announced as the replacement nine days out.
Keeping his undefeated record intact, Garry has won all five of his UFC fights and knocked out each of his last two opponents. He recently became the first fighter to ever knock Daniel Rodriguez out, which came midway through the first round following a well timed head kick. Garry notably called out Neil Magny in his post fight interview. Just two months prior to that May win, Garry landed a late third round TKO against Song Kenan. However, Garry nearly suffered the first loss of his career when he got dropped in the first round of that fight, but was able to recover in the clinch after Song failed to put him away. Garry then took over from the second round on before finishing Song with a combination of strikes in the final minute of the fight. Prior to his recent pair of finishes, Garry won back-to-back decisions over Gabe Green and Darian Weeks, after landing a first round knockout in his 2021 UFC debut against Jordan Williams. Garry nearly got Gabe Green out of there in the third round after knocking him down, but Green was able to survive to lose a unanimous 30-27 decision. Prior to joining the UFC, Garry went 7-0 with Cage Warriors and won the vacant Welterweight title in a 25 minute decision in June 2021 just before joining the UFC. Five of Garry’s last seven fights have made it out of the first round, with three of those going the distance.
Now 11-0 as a pro, Garry has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. After going the distance in his 2019 pro debut, Garry landed five straight finishes in the first two rounds before winning the Cage Warriors Welterweight title in a five-round decision. His last six finishes have all come by KO/TKO, and his only submission victory occurred in the first round of his third pro fight. He has three first round knockouts, three more in round two, and one in round three.
Overall, Garry is still just 25 years old and seems to be constantly improving. He joined Kill Cliff FC leading up to his UFC debut and trains with a bunch of high-level UFC fighters, which should help him with his development. At 6’3”, he has good size for the division and is a very accurate striker with good footwork, while also being a judo black belt. In his five UFC fights, he’s only attempted two takedowns, landing just one of them (50% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on four of their 11 attempts (63.6% defense). He averages 6.85 SSL/min and 4.09 SSA/min, and landed 127 and 116 significant strikes in his last two fights that made it out of the first round. Hailing from Ireland, Garry has been hyping himself up as the next Conor McGregor, saying he’ll be a world champion in the next couple of years. While he’s pretty cringe to listen to, the UFC seems on board with building him up, and his first four fights were all on PPV cards, with his other being on an ABC card. Now he’ll be on another PPV card, perhaps with his idol Conner McGregor in attendance considering this is the finals for TUF. This will be Garry’s third fight in just over five months, so it will be interesting to see if the series of quick turnarounds begins to affect him at any point.
Neil Magny
31st UFC Fight (21-9)Eight weeks removed from a low-volume split-decision win over Phil Rowe, Magny stepped into this matchup on short notice after Neal dropped out. Magny has traded wins and losses over his last five outings, with three of his last four fights ending in submissions (1-2), but 7 of his last 10 going the distance (6-1). His only finish in his last 11 matches was a 2022 R3 submission over Daniel Rodriguez, with his second most recent finish coming all the way back in 2018. He got submitted in each of his last two losses, with one of those coming in the first round against Gilbert Burns and the other ending in the second round against Shavkat Rakhmonov. The only other fighter to defeat Magny in his last 10 outings was Michael Chiesa, who won a wrestling-heavy 2021 five-round decision over Magny. Magny’s last two decision wins were both split.
Now 28-10 as a pro, Magny has seven wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and sixteen decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted six times, and has two decision losses. Four of his six submission defeats occurred in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. One of his two KO losses also ended in round one, with the other ending in round four. Despite all of those early losses, Magny has only been finished twice since 2018 and Magny has gone an impressive 16-2 in his 18 career decisions.
Overall, Magny wears on his opponents with a combination of striking and grappling as he weaponizes his cardio and often comes out ahead in the later rounds. While he generally doesn’t put up huge significant striking totals, averaging just 3.52 SSL/min, he tacks on 2.3 TDL/15 min to help grind on his opponents’ gas tanks. Magny typically doesn’t get hit a ton, averaging just 2.25 SSA/min in his career, but his biggest weakness has been his defensive grappling and his 56% takedown defense isn’t anything to write home about. Four of his last five losses came against really solid grapplers in Gilbert Burns, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Michael Chiesa, and Rafael Dos Anjos, with three of those ending in submissions. He also got knocked out by Santiago Ponzinibbio in the fourth round of a 2018 fight. This will be Magny’s 31st UFC fight and 10th year in the organization, so he’ll be a good test for the young up and comer in Ian Garry. Magny was already planning on being at this event to corner his teammate Austin Hubbard, which he says he still plans on doing before he fights.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3”, but Magny will have a 6” reach advantage, while Garry is 11 years younger than the 36-year-old Magny.
This is a good test for Garry, as Magny has only been knocked out twice in 38 pro fights, although has been far more prone to getting submitted. Magny stepping in on short notice does add some uncertainty on his side of things, but he’s known for his cardio and we wouldn’t expect that to be an issue for him where it would be more of a concern for your typical short notice replacement. We haven’t seen Garry face anyone like Magny, so it remains to be seen how he’ll handle an opponent who wants to grind on him in the clinch, but Garry is just as big as Magny and the larger Octagon could help him to control the distance and remain in space. The UFC has all the financial motivations in the world to build Garry up, while a Magny win would be terrible for them, so we’d be surprised if they would match Garry up with Magny if they didn’t think Garry would win. We just saw Garry hand Daniel Rodriguez the first knockout loss of his career and the betting lines indicate that we’re in store for another Garry knockout win here. The decision props seem too good to be true, meaning they’re likely a trap, and we’ll say Garry finishes Magny, most likely by knockout, but Magny has been far more prone to getting submitted. Unfortunately, from a betting perspective Garry’s lines are unplayable unless you want to go the submission route, and even that seems thin considering he only has one submission win on his record. Magny has gone 17-2 in decisions in his career, so if he wins, that’s likely how it will happen.
Our favorite bet here is “Magny Split Decision” at +1800.
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DFS Implications:
Garry has averaged 96 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with four scores of 95 or more and three of at least 106. He’s only put up one dude, which came in a decision in his second UFC fight where he only scored 62 points. Three of his five UFC wins ended in knockouts, with two of those coming in round one. He had a soft schedule early on, but he did just hand Daniel Rodriguez the first knockout loss of his career, so he’s shown his finishing ability is for real. While Garry rarely looks for takedowns, he averages 6.85 SSL/min and has landed a knockdown in four of his five UFC fights. He landed 116 and 127 significant strikes in his last two matches to make it out of the first round and has the ability to put up big striking totals. However, as the most expensive fighter on the card there are lots of ways for him to score well and still get priced out of tournament winning lineups, so he’ll need a real ceiling performance and/or a lower scoring card to be useful in tournaments. Magny is a seasoned vet with 30 pro fights under his belt and has only been knocked out twice in his career, although did take this fight on nine days’ notice after fighting just eight weeks ago and just turned 36 years old. That adds some volatility to the mix, but historically Magny has been a tough guy to knock out and loves to hold opponents up against the cage, which could limit Garry’s ability to put up a big striking total. The odds imply Garry has a 79% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Magny has only landed one finish since 2018, which was a 2022 third round submission win over Daniel Rodriguez that was good for 110 DraftKings points. His previous five victories all went the distance, with Magny averaging 82 DraftKings points over that stretch. Magny scored anywhere from 63 to 100 points in those decision wins, showing a wide range of scoring potential. He generally mixes in a combination of striking and grappling that leaves him with a decent floor and ceiling even in decisions, especially on DraftKings. However, his most recent decision win was only good for 66 DraftKings points, and he only scored 75 and 72 points in his two decision wins before that. Now 36 years old, it’s possible Magny is beginning to slow down and now he’s stepping into a short notice fight against an undefeated prospect. It seems like the UFC is using Magny as a stepping stone to advance Garry’s career, which isn’t encouraging for Magny’s DFS potential. However, as the cheapest fighter on the card, if Magny can pull off the upset there’s a very good chance he can serve as a value play even in a decision. The odds imply Magny has a 21% chance to win, a 7Y% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Zhang Weili
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Weili recently recaptured the Strawweight belt in a second round submission win over a 35-year-old Carla Esparza, who hasn’t looked good since 2021 and is now off having kids. Prior to that, Weili landed a second round knockout in a rematch over Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who immediately retired after the fight. Leading up to the pair of second round finishes, Weili lost back-to-back fights against Rose Namajunas in a 2021 R1 head kick knockout and then a split decision in the rematch later that year. Just before that, Weili fought Jedrzejczyk for the first time and won a 2020 five-round split decision in an all out war to maintain the Strawweight belt that she had just won over Jessica Andrade in a 2019 R1 TKO. Prior to losing to Namajunas, Weili had won 21 straight fights since losing her 2013 pro debut in a two round decision.
Now 23-3 as a pro, Weili has 11 wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and four decision victories. While her last two finishes both occurred in round two, her previous three all ended in round one. Weili has never landed a finish beyond round two and of her 19 career finishes, 11 ended in round one, with the other eight coming in round two. The only time she’s ever been finished herself was when she got knocked out in the first round by Namajunas in April 2021, with her other two losses both ending in decisions. Weili started off fighting at 132 lb before dropping down to 115 lb in her fourth pro fight. All but one of her early wins have come in China or other parts of East Asia, while three of her four UFC wins in the US have ended in decisions. Her recent second round submission win is the first time she’s ever finished an opponent on US soil. Her last two decisions were both split in five-round title fights (1-1).
This will be the 7th five-round fight of Weili’s career and 6th UFC title fight. She had one fight scheduled to go five rounds before she joined the UFC, but she knocked her opponent out in the second round. She landed another knockout in her first UFC title fight, which ended just 42 seconds into the first round against Jessica Andrade. Immediately after that, Weili won a split decision over Joanna Jedrzejczyk to defend the belt, before getting knocked out in the first round by Rose Namajunas and then losing a split-decision in the rematch. She then won the belt back in a second round submission win over Carla Esparza most recently. So Weili is 3-2 in UFC title fights, with two of them ending in first round knockouts (1-1), one ending in a second round submission win, and the other two ending in split decisions.
Overall, Weili is a powerful striker and a BJJ brown belt, who will also mix in grappling and has shown she can finish opponents both on the feet and the mat. In her nine UFC fights, she’s landed 13 takedowns on 38 attempts (34.2% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on three of their nine attempts (66.7% defense). After failing to land more than two takedowns in any of her first six UFC fights, Weili landed three or more in two of her last three matches and has shown more of a dedication to wrestling in favorable matchups since she started training at Fight Ready in Arizona with Henry Cejudo. Weili also averages a healthy 5.79 SSL/min and 4.06 SSA/min and will gladly throw down in high-volume brawls when given the opportunity.
Amanda Lemos
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Lemos is coming off a third round TKO win over Marina Rodriguez, who had previously never been finished in her career. That’s only the second time in Lemos’ career that she’s landed a finish beyond the seven minute mark in a fight and the first in the UFC. And after not landing a takedown in her previous five fights, Lemos was able to take Rodriguez down and control her for a few minutes on the mat. She also showed improved cardio in the match and despite already being 36 years old, it appears she’s still improving aspects of her game. Prior to that, Lemos locked up a second round guillotine win against Michelle Waterson-Gomez, after getting submitted herself by Jessica Andrade in the first round of her previous fight. That was Lemos’ only loss in her last eight fights, after she got finished in a second round TKO in her 2017 UFC debut. That earlier loss took place at 135 lb and a few months after it Lemos was hit with a lengthy suspension after she tested positive for steroids and ended up taking 29 months off before returning to the Octagon in 2019. During her time away, she dropped two weight classes and returned from her suspension at 115 lb, after clearly looking undersized at 135 lb. She won five straight at the new weight class, including three first round finishes, before suffering her first 115 lb loss against Andrade.
Now 13-2-1 as a pro, Lemos has eight wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decision victories. Eight of her 11 finishes have come in the first round, while she’s coming off her only second round finish and also has two in the opening minute of round three. Both of her losses have also come early, with a 2017 second round TKO in her UFC debut, which took place at 135 lb, and a 2022 R1 submission loss at 115 lb. Since moving down to 115 lb, four of her eight fights ended in the first round (3-1), one ended in a second round submission win, another ended in a third round TKO victory, and the other two went the distance (2-0).
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Lemos’ career. The first was in early 2022, and Lemos got submitted in the first round by Jessica Andrade. The second was in late 2022 and Lemos landed an early third round TKO against Marina Rodriguez. So Lemos has never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes and 13 of her 16 career matches ended in under 11 minutes.
Overall, Lemos is a violent finisher who throws every shot with violent intentions and when she locks up a guillotine, she’s looking to go home with a souvenir. She’s historically been the most dangerous in round one, but she showed improved cardio in her last match, where her finishing power held into the later rounds. She’s a powerful but patient striker who relies more on landing big shots than a ton of volume, but once she gets an opponent hurt she’ll unload to try and finish fights. She’s landed five knockdowns in the UFC, although failed to knockdown any of her last three opponents. She’ll also look to lock up submissions on the mat, and loves to defend takedowns with guillotines. Now 36 years old, Lemos got a late start in MMA as she didn’t turn pro until 2014 when she was already 27 years old. That should mean she has more tread left on the tires than your typical 36-year-old fighter. While Lemos has landed five takedowns on nine attempts (55.6% accuracy) in her eight UFC fights, four of those came in her first three UFC fights and she’s gone just 1 for 5 on her attempts in her last six matches, failing to even attempt a takedown in four of those matches. On the other side of things, she’s been taken down twice on 11 attempts by her opponents (81.8% defense), and no one has ever gotten her down more than once in a fight.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’4”, but Lemos will have a 2” reach advantage, while Weili is two years younger than the 36-year-old Lemos.
This is a great matchup between the two hardest hitting Strawweights in the world. Weili will have the wrestling advantage, so it will be interesting to see how long it takes before she shoots for her first takedown. Lemos hasn’t had to defend a ton of takedowns in the UFC, but does have a solid 81% takedown defense, as well as a dangerous guillotine. Whether or not that will be enough to stop Weili from getting her down remains to be seen, and Weili is incredibly strong. On the feet, they both have the clear ability to knock the other one out, but Weili lands more volume, which when combined with her wrestling advantage will make it hard for Lemos to win a decision if this somehow goes the distance. However, we’d be surprised if this fight required the judges and we like it to end in the opening two and a half rounds. Either a submission or a knockout from either fighter is possible, and the line seems wider than it should be. Lemos came into her recent main event fight as a +200 underdog and proceeded to pull off the upset and we could see her doing it again here at similar odds. She’ll have the reach advantage and we saw Weili get knocked out in her second most recent loss. However, it’s Weili’s wrestling advantage and experience in five-round fights that makes it tougher to pull the trigger on Lemos. So while we see more value on Lemos’ side of things when it comes to betting, from a pure prediction standpoint Weili is rightfully the favorite and is the more likely of the two to win, especially if it goes the distance. We could see this going a few different ways and it’s a tricky one to predict, but forced to choose we’ll say Weili locks up a submission in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in SUB” at +410.
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DFS Implications:
Weili is coming off a poorly timed second round submission win, where she failed to notch a knockdown or takedown and only scored 94 DraftKings points. However, that’s almost the worst case scenario for her in a win and she has shown a massive scoring ceiling in the past, as she averaged 130 DraftKings points in her previous three finishes, scoring 121 or more in all three of those. She also scored 104 points in a 2020 five round decision win and 81 points in a 2021 five-round split-decision loss, which would have been good for 111 points had it gone her way. Her combination of striking, grappling, and finishing is about all you could ask for in a fighter, however, she’s never finished an opponent beyond the second round and faces a tough opponent here. Lemos is a dangerous finishing threat herself and has an 81% takedown defense, so this is far from an easy matchup for Weili. However, she’ll have the wrestling advantage and we expect her to find some success in getting the fight to the ground. According to the odds, Weili has the highest chance of landing a finish of any of the four five-round fighters on this card, and we tend to agree. The odds imply Weili has a 72% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Lemos has been a R1 finish or bust fighter when it comes to DFS and she only scored 70 DraftKings points in her recent third round knockout win, after totally just 83 points in a second round submission just before that. She has three first round finishes in the UFC, where she averaged 119 DraftKings points, but she only averaged 78 points in her other four wins, despite two of those ending early. She’s only landed one takedown in her last five fights and is more focussed on power than volume with her striking. Now she’s facing an opponent who will likely be looking to take her down, which will further limit her ability to put up a big striking total. However, we don’t completely hate Lemos here and she has explosive finishing ability that’s extremely rare at 115 lb. She’s also an opportunistic submission threat and loves to look for guillotines. At her cheap price tag, Lemos may not need to put up a huge score to crack tournament winning lineups, and could still serve as value play even with a win beyond the first round, but that’s not a given and may require all of the other cheap dogs to fail. She’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than three rounds and doesn’t have the best cardio to begin with, so it’s hard to see her winning a decision. So you are relying on her landing a finish if you play her. The odds imply Lemos has a 28% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Aljamain Sterling
19th UFC Fight (15-3)Continuing to be involved in one close/controversial title fight after the next, Sterling is coming off a split decision win over Henry Cejudo, who was coming out of retirement after three years away. Prior to that, Sterling notched a second round TKO win over T.J. Dillashaw, who entered the matchup with a secretly wrecked shoulder that immediately popped out in the fight. That left Dillashaw fighting with one hand and helpless in the grappling exchanges. That came just after Sterling won a close split decision over Petr Yan in their rematch, after Sterling originally “won” the Bantamweight belt via disqualification when Yan landed the infamous curb stomp style illegal knee after having Sterling on the ropes. Following the DQ win, Sterling opted to undergo neck surgery to repair nerve damage that had been bothering him for years. The recovery process from the surgery forced a 13 month gap between the two title fights. Leading up to his dubious title run, Sterling landed the only first round finish of his 18-fight UFC career when he submitted Cory Sandhagen in just 88 seconds via rear-naked choke. The only other time one of Sterling’s UFC fights ended in the first round was in 2017 when Marlon Moraes knocked him out in just 67 seconds. Sterling’s other 16 UFC matches all saw the second round, with 13 making it to round three, and 10 going the distance. Four of those 10 decisions were split (2-2). Sterling has won nine straight fights since getting knocked out by Moraes in 2017.
Now 23-3 as a pro, Sterling has three wins by TKO (R2 2022, R1 2011 & R3 2014), eight submissions, and 11 decision victories. Six of his eight submission wins occurred in 2015 or earlier and he only has two submissions in his last 14 fights—R1 2020 against Cory Sandhagen and R2 2018 against Cody Stamann. Three of his career submission wins ended in round one, three came in round two, and the other two occurred in round three. The only time Sterling has been finished in 26 pro fights was when Marlon Moraes knocked him out cold with a perfect knee to his chin as Sterling shot in for a reckless takedown a minute into their 2017 match. His other two career losses were a pair of split decisions against Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
This will be the 9th five-round fight of Sterling’s career and fifth in the UFC. Just prior to joining the UFC in 2014, Sterling had four straight fights scheduled to go five rounds, however, only one of those made it past the third round, which was a 2011 decision win in his 5th fight the year he turned pro. He landed three straight submissions spread across the first three rounds in his next three five-round fights leading up to his UFC debut. His first two UFC five-round fights were against Petr Yan and Sterling slowed down late in both of those. In their first fight, Sterling lost round three and was losing round four prior to the illegal knee that resulted in him winning, and then he lost both rounds four and five in the rematch, but hung on to win a split-decision that hinged on a very close first round that could have gone either way. Sterling then faced an injured T.J. Dillashaw and basically won by default in a second round TKO against a defenseless opponent. In his most recent title fight, Sterling won another split decision where he lost rounds three and five to Henry Cejudo, but won round four on the scorecards. That fourth round against Cejudo is the only championship round Sterling has won in the UFC. Sterling has had one of the weakest championship runs in recent memory, with his four wins coming by DQ, split-decision, injury TKO, and split-decision.
Overall, Sterling is a former NCAA DIII college wrestler, a BJJ black belt, and overall a very dangerous grappler. In his 18 UFC fights, he’s only landed 33 of his 134 takedown attempts (24.6% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 23 of their 42 attempts (45.2% defense). While Sterling landed at least one takedown against each of his last four opponents we’ve really seen him struggle with his takedown accuracy lately. While Sterling was able to take an injured Dillashaw down five times on eight attempts, in his other six most recent fights he only landed 7 of his 69 attempts (10.1% accuracy), and four of those were against Cejudo who was actively trying to wrestle with Sterling. In his five fights prior to defeating Cejudo and Dillashaw, Sterling amazingly only landed 3 of his 54 takedown attempts (5.6% accuracy). Sterling’s striking numbers are actually more impressive than his takedown stats, as he’s averaged 4.78 SSL/min and just 2.37 SSA/min. He’s finished ahead in significant strikes in 16 of his 18 UFC fights, while he only trailed by one and four significant strikes respectively in his other two matches. He’s got good range and movement and will mix in kicks while also utilizing his lengthy reach. He’s also landed double digit leg strikes in 7 of his last 13 fights. Now he’ll face a striker, so obviously everyone will be expecting Sterling to rely heavily on his wrestling. Sterling said there’s a 99% chance he’ll move up from 135 lb to 145 lb following this fight.
Sean O'Malley
11th UFC Fight (8-1, NC)O'Malley is coming off a controversial split-decision win over Petr Yan that he arguably lost, but is being thrust into a title shot nonetheless. Yan was able to take O'Malley down six times on 13 attempts and control him for nearly six minutes, while O'Malley finished ahead in significant strikes 84-58. Yan notably only landed one total takedown in his other three most recent fights, which all ended in five-round decisions, so it’s rare to see him put up big takedown numbers. Prior to that, O'Malley had a fight against Pedro Munhoz end in a No Contest against Pedro Munhoz, for a phantom eye poke. O'Malley went up against a barrage of leg kicks from Munhoz, which put O'Malley’s previously twice injured leg to the test. Literally 100% of Munhoz’s 26 significant strikes landed were leg kicks and O'Malley was able to check and absorb them all without reinjuring his leg. O'Malley appeared primarily focussed on defending the kicks of Munhoz and never got a ton of his own offense going as he lost the first round on two of the three judges’ scorecards, before the fight was stopped midway through round two. Amazingly, the No Contest still propelled O'Malley from fighting unranked opponents just before facing Munhoz to the top Bantamweight contender in his next match, as he leapfrogged the rankings on his way to a title shot. Leading up to the Munhoz fight, O'Malley had six straight fights in KO/TKOs (5-1), with his only UFC loss resulting from the leg injury he suffered against Marlon Vera.
Now 16-1 as a pro, O'Malley has 11 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. His lone submission win came in the first round of his third pro fight back in 2015, while eight of his knockout wins occurred in round one, one ended in round two, and two came in round three. While five of O’Malley’s eight UFC wins have come by knockout, we’ve yet to see him knock out any top guys and he’s also never knocked anybody out that hadn’t previously been knocked out before. O'Malley’s only career loss was a 2020 R1 TKO against Marlon Vera, who shut down O'Malley’s foot with a leg kick that led to the stoppage.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of O'Malley’s career and he’s never been in a match that lasted longer than 15 minutes. That leaves his championship round cardio a mystery.
Overall, O'Malley is an exciting striker who averages the highest number of significant strikes landed on the slate at 7.43/min, while only absorbing 3.54/min. He hasn’t landed a takedown since his UFC debut, and only even attempted one in his last nine fights. Between his 10 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance he landed 3 of his 7 attempts (42.9% accuracy), with all but one of those attempts coming in his UFC debut. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 12 of their 30 attempts (60% defense). Only six of his 11 opponents attempted a takedown, with four of those fighters landing at least one. While it’s rare to see O'Malley grapple in the UFC, he is a BJJ brown belt and has competed in grappling tournaments in the past.
Fight Prediction:
O'Malley will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while also being six years younger than the 34-year-old Sterling.
It doesn’t appear that many people are giving O'Malley any chance of winning this one, which is somewhat fair considering he leapfrogged the entire rankings to fight Yan and arguably lost that fight. He’ll also be at a massive grappling disadvantage and if Sterling takes his back he’ll be in some real trouble. However, it’s important to keep in mind that this fight will be in the larger Octagon with more room for O'Malley to evade Sterling. O'Malley is also very tall, long, and fast, so it could be a challenge for Sterling to track him down and get a hold of him. Sterling has really struggled with his takedown accuracy, landing just 12 of his last 77 takedown attempts, with nine of those successful takedowns coming against a pair of half-retired aging veterans in his last two matches. Sterling didn’t get any of his previous five opponents down more than twice, and only three total takedowns on a ridiculous 54 attempts in those five matches. So much of Sterling’s win equity is dependent on him getting the fight to the mat, that it’s definitely concerning how much he’s struggled with his takedown accuracy.
Early in this fight, we expect O'Malley to be more focussed on not getting taken down than landing offense of his own, while Sterling will need to be careful not to walk onto anything. That very well may result in a slower start than many are expecting. And keep in mind, Sterling only has one first round finish in his 18-fight UFC career and only two submission wins in his last 14 fights. So while he is a very dangerous grappler, it’s not as if he’s been some prolific finisher. That makes it hard to just take it for granted that he’ll lock up a submission here, despite his massive advantage on the mat.
If Sterling doesn’t finish O'Malley, remember that all of Sterling’s recent fights (outside of the Dillashaw injury fiasco) have been incredibly close, with both of his recent two decisions being split. That makes it harder to trust Sterling than the odds suggest and this fight could go a lot of ways. We’ve seen Sterling slow down late in fights before, but we also don’t know what O'Malley’s cardio will look like beyond the third round. We expect the Boston crowd to be behind O'Malley, because everyone hates Sterling and even his home crowd booed him in his last fight. That could result in quicker standups from the ref if the fight does hit the mat, and could also help sway the judges in O'Malley’s favor in a close decision. And if you want to buy into any UFC conspiracy takes, who do you think Dana wants to win here? Sterling was also forced into turning around quicker than he wanted after his last fight, and one of his main training partners in Merab Dvalishvili has been recovering from injury. In addition to that, Sterling is already looking ahead to the future as he prepares to move up a weight class, so his attention may not be 100% focussed on the task in front of him. While Sterling seemingly has O'Malley outmatched skill for skill, and it’s not even close experience wise, all of the other little details and narratives seem to be going in O'Malley’s favor. Will that be enough for him to win his fight? Only time will tell, but this one could definitely get dicey if Sterling is unable to find a finish in the first few rounds. An early Sterling submission win is still squarely in play, and an O'Malley knockout isn’t impossible either, but we actually like this one to end in a close decision. Those types of decisions generally favor the current champ, but we wouldn’t want to be laying a bunch of chalk if this hits the scorecards. We’re tempted to pick O'Malley by split decision here, but the two most likely outcomes are still for Sterling to either land a submission or win a close decision. So we’ll tentatively say Sterling wins, but this has all the makings of a trap.
Our favorite bet here is “Sterling/O'Malley Fight Starts R4 - Yes” at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Sterling is coming off the highest two scoring wins of his career and is now facing what appears to be a step down in competition, so expect him to be even more popular than he’s been in the past. We’ve seen his DraftKings ownership steadily rise in his last three fights from 25% to 36% to 38%. His respective odds in those matches were +360, -165, and +100, whereas now he comes in as a sizable -250 favorite. While he scored 121 DraftKings points in his recent five-round decision win and 152 points in a R2 TKO victory just before that, he only scored 86 points in his second most recent five-round decision win and only once topped 104 DraftKings points in his first 16 UFC appearances, which was in a 2014 R3 TKO where he scored 112 points. He scored “just” 95 DraftKings points in his only UFC first round finish, which came in a 2020 submission win over Cory Sandhagen, showing that even if he does lock up an early submission here he could easily get left out of winning lineups at his expensive price tag. So there are multiple ways that Sterling comes out victorious and still gets left out of winning DFS lineups, but he also recently showed the ability to fill up the stat sheet and score well in a decision. That leaves him with a wide range of potential scoring outcomes, but the field will be playing him as if a ceiling outcome is more or less inevitable. That creates an interesting leverage opportunity by going under the field in tournaments, which will be especially valuable on this smaller slate where it will be more of a challenge to create unique lineups that include him. Just keep in mind, it’s a risky move fading the main event favorite and he still has the potential to be the highest scorer on the slate. The odds imply Sterling has a 68% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
O’Malley is stepping into his second straight really tough matchup and was very fortunate to walk away with a three-round decision win over Petr Yan in his last match, but still only scored 65 DraftKings points and 70 points on FanDuel. If we extend his stats in that fight over the course of 25 minutes he would have been looking at 88 DraftKings points and 104 points on FanDuel. Now he’s stepping into the first five-round fight of his career, so we don’t know what his cardio will look like in the championship rounds, if it makes it that far. We often see fighters pace themselves more in their first five-round fight, and O’Malley will also have to be extremely wary of Sterling’s grappling. That has the potential to slow things down early on, and O’Malley will be entirely dependent on striking volume and/or landing a finish to score well. At O’Malley’s cheap price tag he doesn’t need to put up a huge score to end up in winning lineups, but if this turns into a total staring contest or he gets controlled for extended periods of time it’s not impossible he could win and still not score enough to end up in winning lineups depending on how the rest of the slate goes. Based on his name, price, and past scoring upside, we expect him to be pretty popular despite the odds being stacked against him, which also lowers his tournament appeal some. The biggest tournament leverage play in this fight (and on the card) isn’t playing O’Malley instead of Sterling, it’s fading the fight altogether and hoping for a slower paced match where the winner doesn’t score especially well. That obviously carries a lot of risk, but if this fight busts it will take the vast majority of the field down with it and a winning lineup that doesn’t include a fighter from this match will likely be much more profitable than one that does. The odds imply O’Malley has a 32% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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