The Sheet

Fight Day Scratches: None

Fighter Notes:

Fight #14

Emily Whitmire

6th UFC Fight (2-3)

Whitmire had been scheduled to face Cory McKenna here, but then Goldy replaced her a few weeks ago after Mckenna dropped out. Both Goldy and Whitmire most recently fought at 115 lb but this next fight will take place at 125 lb. With that in mind, this will be Goldy’s 5th pro fight at 125 lb (3-1), while it will just be Whitmire’s 2nd (0-1). They each lost their respective UFC debuts at 125 lb, before dropping down to 115 lb immediately after.

Coming off back-to-back submission losses, Whitmire has now been submitted in all four of her career losses and she’s currently sitting on a 4-4 professional record with one submission win of her own to go along with three decision victories. It’s been 13 months since she last fought, partially due to the fact that she had two bookings fall through in February.

As we mentioned, Whitmire only has one official fight at 125 lb, which came in her UFC debut where she was submitted 132 seconds into the first round by Gillian Robertson. However, Whitmire also had two fights on The Ultimate Fighter back in 2017 at 125 lb that also each ended in the first round. She won the first of those with an Armbar Submission just 40 seconds into the fight against Christina Marks, but was then finished with elbows one second before the first round ended against Roxanne Modafferi in her next fight. So while we put far less emphasis on the results of exhibition matches, those are somewhat noteworthy considering we only have 132 seconds of official fight time to evaluate Whitmire at 125 lb.

After losing in her UFC debut, Whitmire dropped back down to 115 lb where her first three pro fights had also taken place. Despite her relatively low-volume, low-power striking, she was able to grind out a decision against an unthreatening Jamie Moyle, who’s now lost four of her last five fights.

Whitmire carried that momentum into her next match where she started off with an aggressive take down and submitted Aleksandra Albu just 61 seconds into the fight via Rear-Naked Choke. The quick finish landed Whitmire a supporting role in Amanda Ribas’ UFC debut. Clearly outgunned, Whitmire was submitted by Ribas early in the second round. Then most recently, Whitmire was submitted less than two minutes into the first round by Armbar specialist Polyana Viana in August 2020.

Originally scheduled to fight Viana back in March 2020, Whitmire was forced to wait 14 months in-between fights due to Covid cancelations after her June 2019 loss to Ribas. So she’s now fought just once in the last 27 months and that fight lasted just 113 seconds. Four of Whitmire’s five UFC fights have ended with quick submissions (1-3), with three of those occurring in the first half of R1 and the other coming early in R2. However, she’s faced three really tough grapplers in Gillian Robertson, Amanda Ribas and Polyana Viana and her next opponent is a one-dimensional striker who won’t be able to capitalize on Whitmire’s biggest weakness.

Hannah Goldy

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Also moving up to 125 lb after recently losing at 115 lb, Goldy lost a unanimous 30-27 decision to Diana Belbita just eight weeks ago. We saw a good amount of volume thrown in that fight, with Belbita leading in significant strikes 117-92 and in total strikes 126-107. Goldy curiously went 2 for 6 on takedowns after not attempting one in her previous six rounds of action. Those recent takedown attempts could have been more out of desperation as the one-dimensional striker in Belbita was piecing Goldy up on the feet. Goldy is by no means a grappler and six of her seven pro fights have ended in decisions (4-2). Her only fight to end early was a R2 KO victory in her second pro fight against Vanessa Grimes, who now holds a 1-6 pro record with six straight losses. Only one of Goldy’s five career victories came against an opponent who entered with more than two pro wins. Here are the records of her opponents going into her five pro wins: 0-0, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, and 6-2. Goldy does notably have a decision win over Gilliant Robertson, which occurred at 115 lb, but that came in what was the first pro fight for each of them.

Leading up to her recent loss, Goldy had withdrawn from her last three scheduled fights and hadn’t fought in almost two years since losing a decision in her August 2019 UFC debut against Miranda Granger, which took place at 125 lb. In that fight, Goldy was outlanded by Granger 61-55 in significant strikes and 77-58 in total strikes. Neither lady attempted a takedown and overall it was a slower paced fight with sporadic action. In a close/boring match, Granger won a unanimous 30-27 decision.

With only a 61” T-Rex reach, Goldy relies on her legs to strike from distance, but she does throw decent kicks. She went on DWCS in 2019 and landed a ton of volume as she outlanded her opponent 141-56 in significant strikes, but it mostly came as Goldy circled away and her opponent just helplessly walked into kicks as she followed Goldy around the cage like a lost puppy.

It will be important to monitor each of these ladies at weigh-ins as they are both moving up a weight class.

Fight Prediction:

Whitmire will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

Neither one of these two have done anything to impress us, but the fact that four of Whitmire’s five UFC fights have ended in a round and a half or less means that this isn’t a fight we can just simply ignore. Whitmire is by no means a good grappler, but Goldy isn’t any sort of grappler at all. So while Whitmire has looked incredibly susceptible to being submitted, that is unlikely to be something that Goldy can actually capitalize on. That will leave Goldy reliant on landing a knockout to get a finish. On the other side of things, Whitemire hasn’t shown much striking power, and her only career finish came in a submission, so she’ll likely be looking to take Goldy down. Neither of Goldy’s UFC opponents have attempted a takedown on her, but she was taken down twice on six attempts back in 2019 on DWCS. With Whitmire likely looking to grapple, the striking volume should be capped here, so we don’t expect to see another high-volume brawl. Instead we’re looking for Whitmire to win a close decision, but there is a slight chance she’s able to choke Goldy out on the mat. With that said, it is possible that Goldy simply overpowers Whitmire, and she has the potential to finish her with ground and pound or with a head kick.

We’re treading lightly here and just taking a couple small stabs on “Whitmire Wins by Submission” at +600 and “Whitmire Wins by R1 Submission” at +500.

DFS Implications:

With low volume and no significant power, Whitmire seems like nothing more than R1 submission or bust hail mary play and her only career finish came in a 2019 R1 submission win. In her lone UFC decision victory, she scored just 77 DraftKings points and 67 points on FanDuel. While Goldy has been involved in some high-volume striking matches, we’re expecting Whitmire to look to grapple once again, so a brawl is less likely. It is somewhat possible that she racks up a ton of control time and ends up scoring somewhat decently on DraftKings but not on FanDuel in a decision win, so we prefer her on DK. The odds imply she has a 53% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.

Goldy closed out the third round of her recent decision loss with heavy ground and pound, but appeared to run out of time to actually get a finish. That recent final impression could have people slightly more excited to play her than they otherwise might be, but overall we thought she looked bad in that fight and nearly got finished earlier herself. While Goldy landed a ton of volume in her 2019 DWCS fight and also in her most recent loss, she landed just 55 significant strikes (3.67/min) in her UFC debut against Miranda Granger, who’s now 1-2 in the UFC. We expect to see something close to that in this next matchup and Goldy looks reliant on landing a finish to score well in DFS—something she’s only done once in her career and it came against a fighter who’s now 1-6. So overall you’re likely relying on a knockout if you play her, although she could boost her FanDuel score with a few takedowns defended. The odds imply she has a 47% chance to win, a 14% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #13

Heili Alateng

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Coming off a decision loss to Casey Kenney, Heili showed off his toughness simply to survive that fight as he absorbed relentless body kicks from Kenney. The fight ended with Kenney ahead 109-46 in striking and it looked like something out of a Jean-Claude Van Damme training montage as Kenney chopped at Heili’s midsection for the entire fight. That was Heili’s first UFC loss after he won a pair of decisions in his first two fights with the organization.

After going 7 for 20 on takedowns in his first two UFC matches, Heili didn’t attempt one in that most recent fight, which was a little surprising considering his wrestling background. However, Kenney is also a celebrated grappler so maybe he just didn’t like the matchup on the mat.

Prior to that loss, Heili won decisions over Ryan Benoit and Danaa Batgerel after his three previous fights (before joining the UFC) all ended in knockouts within the first two rounds (2-1). He’s been outstruck in all three of his UFC fights but he’s been the one landing takedowns late to win on the scorecards in his first two matches.

In his UFC debut Heili was outstruck by Danaa Batgerel 85-36, but landed 3 of 7 takedowns, all in the final round, while defending Batgerel’s only takedown attempt. Heili did appear to do more damage with his strikes and dominated in control time and despite the striking deficit he won a unanimous 29-27 decision. In his next fight, Ryan Benoit outstruck Heili in significant strikes 68-47, but Heili went 4 of 13 on takedowns while successfully defending Benoit’s only attempt. Heili ended up winning a close split-decision.

Heili has been knocked out three times as a pro, but two of those came early on in his career back in 2014—in his 4th and 6th fights. Both of those KOs occurred in R2. His only other KO loss came in 2017, in a R1 29 second finish. His lone submission loss came in a R1 Armbar in 2015. So he’s only been finished once in the last six years, but his last two early losses both occurred in the first round.

Of his 14 career wins, he has four KOs, three submissions and seven decision victories. Since a 2015 submission win, all 12 of his fights have ended in either KOs (3-1) or decisions (6-1-1). The three KO wins were not against overly experienced opponents, entering those fights with records of: 8-12-2, 6-1 and 5-4. The one KO loss came against a tougher 7-0 opponent.

Despite his wrestling background, Heili seems perfectly content with keeping things on the feet, especially early on in fights. He’s not a high-volume striker by any means and typically throws one, sometimes two punches at a time. He does have decent power, but he’s far from an elite striker and has a poor striking defense.

It’s worth noting that Heili’s 100% takedown defense is a bit misleading as he’s only had three attempts against him and those were by opponents with career takedown accuracies of 35%, 25% and 0%.

Gustavo Lopez

4th UFC Fight (1-2)

Looking to bounce back from a R3 KO loss to a young stud in Adrian Yanez, Lopez has bounced between elite and terrible opponents over his three UFC fights. He made his UFC debut against takedown machine Merab Dvalishvili, before being gifted Anthony Birchak, who was followed by a death sentence in Adrian Yanez.

After taking his June 2020 UFC debut on short notice against Merab Dvalishvili, Lopez was baptized into the UFC by Merhab, who dunked him 13 times on 18 attempts. Lopez showed his toughness just to survive the roller coaster ride, and bounced back with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win in his second UFC fight against his noted friend and training partner Anthony Birchak, who stepped in on short notice after Lopez’s original opponent tested positive for COVID. Birchak was clearly a big step down in competition from Dvalishvili, but Lopez made the most of it. Most recently Lopez was dissected by Yanez for two rounds before getting knocked out early in R3.

Impressively, Lopez’s last eight wins have all come early and his last six victories have all ended in the first round. Four of those wins ended in submissions with the other two resulting in knockouts.

With a 12-6 pro record, he’s been finished three times in his career—all by knockout. All of those early losses came against fighters who are now in the UFC, with one against Andre Ewell in R1 of a 2018 match, another against John Castaneda in the fourth round of a 2016 fight and then the most recent R3 loss to Yanez. His other three career losses all ended in decisions. Eleven of his 12 wins have also come early and the only time he’s ever won a decision was in 2015 in his fifth pro fight. He notably has five KOs and six submission victories. Eight of those 11 finishes came in the first round, with the other three ending in round two.

His coaches say he has a great Guillotine Choke, which could be useful against a wrestler like Heili. Lopez also has a wrestling background and is a BJJ brown belt. Lopez’s last 10 fights have either ended in R1 (7) or gone to R3 (3), with two going the distance.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’5” but Lopez will have a 1” reach advantage.

After getting kicked in the ribs 5,000 times by Casey Kenney, we expect Heili to return to his wrestling roots here and focus on attacking the 27% takedown defense of Lopez. Just keep in mind that Lopez’s takedown defense is 100% based on his fight against Merab Dvalishvili, who went 13 for 18 on his attempts. Neither of Lopez’s last two opponents actually attempted a takedown, so we should definitely take it with a grain of salt. Both of these two fighters have shown they can take a beating, and if this fight makes it past the first round, which it likely will, we expect it to end in a decision. They actually appear very evenly matched with wrestling backgrounds and similar striking styles, where they each load up on punches and have poor striking defenses. So this one feels close to a coinflip, but we think Lopez has a better chance to end the fight early, while Heili is more likely to win a decision. We’ll take Heili by decision here as the most likely outcome, but wouldn’t be shocked to see it end in the first round.

We like taking a few stabs on Lopez’s side with his R1 line at +650, his R1 submission line at +1300, and his overall submission line at +600. We also like “Fight Ends in R1” at +320 and “Heili Wins by Decision” at +180 as a safer option.

DFS Implications:

Heili has yet to sniff a usable DFS score, but his wrestling background theoretically makes him a better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel assuming he actually looks for takedowns this time around. Barring a completely lopsided wrestling performance, he needs a finish to return value on either DFS site, and so far he’s fought to three straight decisions in the UFC. He does get an easier matchup here, so if he was ever going to hit a ceiling performance it would make sense to come now. With that said, he’s far more likely to win a decision then get a finish, but it makes sense to have some exposure in tournaments based on his low projected ownership. The odds imply he has a 54% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.

Lopez has been a bipolar performer, but with consistent trends in his results. His last six wins have all come in the first round, while his last three losses all made it to round three. He’s also alternated wins and losses over his last four fights as his opponents have bounced between cupcakes and studs. This will be the first average opponent Lopez has faced in the UFC, so it will be interesting to see how he fares. Heili was notably knocked out in just 29 seconds in his last loss before joining the UFC, so while he appears extremely durable, he has been finished quickly at times in the past. Based on his history it makes sense to view Lopez as a boom or bust option for DFS and if he fails to land a first round finish he’s likely in trouble. However, the odds imply he has a 46% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1 so they see it differently.

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Fight #12

Impa Kasanganay

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Making his second straight appearance at 170 lb after dropping down from 185 lb prior to his last match, Kasanganay is coming off a R2 Rear-Naked Choke win over a terrible Sasha Palatnikov. Kasanganay was able to force a tap from Palatnikov with a sloppy Rear-Naked Choke despite never getting his hooks in.

Leading up to that win, Kasanganay was on the wrong side of the 2020 knockout of the year against Joaquin Buckley last October. Following that loss he dropped down a weight class and switched camps to Sanford MMA, while moving from North Carolina to Florida.

Prior to his viral knockout loss, Kasanganay was 8-0 as pro with six of those wins going the distance. The other two were both by submission (against 0-0 and 1-1 opponents), although one was due to an opponent’s shoulder injury followed by a verbal tap. In his August 2020 UFC debut, Kasanganay defeated Maki Pitolo in a hard fought decision. He landed 85 significant strikes but went 0 for 1 on takedowns in the match.

Previously, Kasanganay made back-to-back appearances on DWCS in 2019 and 2020 and won both by decision. In his first appearance, Kasanganay landed 72 significant strikes and went 2 for 2 on takedowns. In his second trip on the show, he landed 94 significant strikes and went 3 for 3 on takedowns.

Kasanganay only started his MMA training in 2017 and just went pro in 2019, so he’s still a very raw fighter that’s trying to learn on the job. That also theoretically means he has more room to improve between fights. He’s now 9-1 as a pro with three wins by submission and six decision victories. His lone career loss came in the Buckley highlight reel R2 KO.

Carlston Harris

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Coming off an impressive R1 submission win in his May UFC debut, Harris was set up for grappling success against the one-dimensional power puncher Christian Aguilera who was coming off a submission loss to Sean Brady and has now been finished in six of his eight career losses. It only took Harris 14 seconds to shoot for his first takedown, but Aguilera was able to remain on his feet and force Harris into a striking battle. Harris showed he has decent hands as he stunned Aguilera, turning him into a wrestler as Aguilera shot for a desperation takedown. Harris immediately wrapped up his neck and choked him unconscious.

That was Harris’ fourth straight win with all of the victories coming in the first two rounds. Harris has now won eight of his last nine fights with finishes in six of those. One of the two decision wins came in a five round bout where Harris won the vacant Brave Welterweight belt in 2017. He nearly finished that fight with submissions at a few different points in a smothering grappling performance. However, in his next fight, he immediately lost the belt in the first round via knockout. That’s his only loss in over five years, and the only time he’s been finished in his 20 pro fights. His other three career losses all ended in decisions, with two of those coming in his first three pro fights. Since the rocky start to his career, he’s won 15 of his last 17 fights. He notably has a decision win over UFC crazy man, Michel Pereira, back in 2015, as well a decision victory over UFC fighter Wellington Turman.

Nine of his 16 career wins have come early, with four KOs and five submissions and his last five fights have all notably ended in the first two rounds. Harris has a smothering grappling heavy approach that utilizes chain wrestling and not a ton of striking volume. However, he’s a threat to end fights on the mat with both submissions and ground and pound and can still knock people out on the feet. While we’ve seen less than three minutes of him in the UFC, the fact that he has three wins over current UFC fighters is certainly encouraging for his outlook.

Fight Prediction:

Harris will have a 1” height and reach advantage.

This is an interesting matchup between two guys that have shown that they can each compete both on the mat and the feet. Kasanganay has notably gone the distance in 60% of his pro fights, while Harris has made it to the judges in 50% of his matches. Neither one of these two have ever been submitted, but each has been knocked out once in the past. Harris has twice as many fights under his belt (20) and is seven years older than Kasanganay, so it’s clear where the experience advantage lies. Harris turned pro in 2011, eight years before Kasanganay and is the more technical grappler. Kasanganay will rely more on his athleticism and strength to win this fight and we’ve exclusively seen him matchup with strikers so far in the UFC, so it’s tough to gauge his defensive wrestling. However, he was taken down three times on seven attempts in his first DWCS appearance and owns an average 63% takedown defense. We wouldn’t be shocked to see a finish here, but it’s more likely to end in a decision as these two appear to match up somewhat evenly. As the odds suggest this is essentially a pick ‘em and we could see it going either way, but we’ll give the slight edge to Harris.

With a wide range of potential outcomes we’re treadling lightly here, but we see value in Harris’ decision line at +350 and “Harris Wins in R1 or R2” at +260.

DFS Implications:

Kasanganay’s recent R2 submission win suffered from unfortunate timing from a DFS perspective, as it came just 26 seconds into the second round, which is the worst case scenario when it comes to a finish in the first two rounds. Because of that, it was good for just 92 DraftKings points and 100 points on FanDuel. He also showed a low floor in his earlier decision win, which scored just 65 DraftKings points and 71 points on FanDuel. This looks like a much tougher matchup than his last one and Kasanganay is in an unlikely spot to score well, but he should get the chance to defend a ton of takedowns, so he’s more interesting on FanDuel. He also projects to go low owned, so there is some leverage to be had by playing him in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 52% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

Harris’ relentless takedowns, smothering grappling style and history of finishes always keeps him in the DFS discussion—especially on DraftKings due to control time and ground strikes. He still has the potential to put up a good FanDuel score as well, his floor is simply lower if this fight goes the distance. The line has moved in his favor from +110 to +100 so at his cheap price tag he looks like a solid value play, especially on DraftKings where he’s just $7,300. We expect the field to see it the same way and for Harris to carry a decent amount of ownership, which makes him less appealing for tournaments, but you’ll still want to have some level of exposure and he looks like a great low-risk play. The odds imply he has a 48% chance to win this fight, a 29% chance to end it early and a 12% chance to get it done in R1.

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Fight #11

Erin Blanchfield

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Blanchfield had been scheduled to make her UFC debut against Norma Dumont back in April but Dumont missed weight so badly that the fight was canceled. That was Blanchfield’s third straight opponent to drop out of a fight, and she now hasn’t competed since July 2020. She’ll get a far easier test on Saturday against Sarah Alpar, who got destroyed in her only UFC fight almost exactly one year ago.

Seemingly getting better with each fight, the young 22-year-old Blanchfield only has seven pro fights to her name, but three of those came against current UFC fighters in Kay Hansen, Tracy Cortez, and Victoria Leonardo. Blanchfield holds a 6-1 pro record with her only pro loss coming in a split-decision against Tracy Cortez in 2019. Three of Blanchfield’s six wins have come early with two KOs and one submission and she notably finished two of her last three opponents in the first two rounds.

A BJJ black belt, Blanchfield is primarily a grappler but appears to slowly be expanding her striking repertoire as she landed a second round KO by head kick in her second most recent fight. Just to be clear, her striking game is still unimpressive and she pays the bills in the clinch, but earlier in her career she would spend entire fights in the clinch whereas recently she’s been more willing to stand and trade.

Showing that she could hold her own at just 19 years old in grappling matches with Kay Hansen and Tracy Cortez is obviously a great sign for Blanchfield’s chances in the UFC, and is more of an indicator than we would typically get with a fighter in her position. She nearly submitted Tracy Cortez multiple times, and it appeared she may have won that close match, but two of the judges disagreed.

Sarah Alpar

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Dropping down to 125 lb after fighting her last five fights at 135 lb, Alphar is 364 days removed from a bloody beat down loss in her UFC debut, which ended in a bizarre R3 KO where Alpar was actually finished twice but due to a referee error the fight was extended following what appeared to be an earlier TKO. That loss came against Jessica-Rose Clark, who had previously fought to 11 straight decisions and hadn’t finished an opponent in the previous six and a half years. As Clark laid it on Alpar in the third round, Alpar literally just sat down against the cage and unsurprisingly caught a knee to the face seemingly just before she hit the mat. The referee thought it was an illegal knee and paused the action but didn’t officially stop the fight as it had initially appeared. It seemed like the fight would be over either from an illegal knee or a TKO as Alpar sat bleeding out of her face, but the ref resumed the action rules be damned. Clark continued to pulverize Alpar who proceeded to paint the canvas red as she put up no real defense. After a few more minutes of abuse, the fight was then stopped for good with 39 seconds remaining in the third round. The fight ended with Clark ahead in significant strikes 76-12 and in total strikes 124-26. She also landed her only takedown attempt and amassed over eight minutes of control time while Alpar went 2 of 11 on takedowns with just under three and a half minutes of control time.

Prior to that loss in her UFC debut, Alpar had been on a three fight winning streak, with her most recent win coming in a R2 submission on DWCS in August of 2019. So she’s now fought just once in the last 25 months and has since turned to GoFundMe to pay the bills. She has notably finished two of her last three opponents early, but five of her nine career wins have come by decision. She has two career wins by KO and two by submission. Of her five pro losses, she has one TKO loss, two by submission and two decisions. Thirteen of her 14 pro fights have made it out of the first round, with 11 seeing the third round. All three of her early losses have occurred in round three. She’s also fought to four five round decisions in her career, winning three of them, including one over UFC fighter Joselyne Edwards in 2017.

Overall, Alpar is a one-dimensional wrestler who does not appear to be a UFC talent. She’s been finished in two of her last three losses, both times in the third round. She’s notably dropping down to 125 lb, where she previously had been competing until 2016 when she moved up to 135 lb. However, we’ve seen her struggle at both weight classes, so it’s unclear if the move will help or hurt her.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’4” but Blanchfield will have a 3” reach advantage.

This looks like a terrible matchup for Alpar who relies on her wrestling to grind out victories. Now she’s going against a BJJ black belt in Blanchfield who appears to have advantages on both the feet and the mat. Alpar’s only hope will be that the drop down in weight will result in her being the stronger fighter and she can simply overpower Blanchfield. However, we don’t see that happening as Blanchfield looks to be the far more technical fighter and she had recently prepared to make her debut up at 135 lb before Dumont dropped out. While Blanchfield is primarily just a grappler herself, we still expect her to be able to outstrike the helpless Alpar. We like Blanchfield’s chances to get a finish here, but could see it coming either through striking or with a submission.

Our favorite bet here is “Blanchfield ITD” at +185, but as a dart throw you can consider her round three win line at +1500.

DFS Implications:

Blanchfield’s most reliable DFS asset is her control time, which automatically makes her a better play on DraftKings compared to FanDuel if this fight goes the distance, but Alpar did notably go 2 for 11 on her takedown attempts in her UFC debut so the potential to rack up takedowns defended is certainly there. Alpar looked lost in her UFC debut and has given us no indication she can compete at the UFC level. While we don’t really know exactly what we’ll get out of Blanchfield, this looks like a good spot where we should be able to get Blanchfield at low ownership with a wide range of scoring outcomes. It’s entirely possible this turns into 15 minutes of these two pushing each other against the cage, but we like Blanchfield’s chances to get a finish, especially once you factor in ownership. The odds imply she has a 75% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance to end it in the first round.

Alpar’s one-dimensional wrestling makes her slightly less terrible on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, but we still have very little interest in playing her. She is coming down a weight class, which makes this a higher variance spot, but if anything that just makes us more concerned about her chin. However, if you’re looking for reasons for optimism, she attempted 11 takedowns in her last fight, has finishes in two of her last three wins, is priced at just $6,800 on DraftKings and projects to be the lowest owned fighter on the slate. Just keep in mind she only landed two of those 11 takedown attempts, has more decisions than finishes in her career, and checks in with bottom of the barrel pricing and ownership for good reason. The odds imply she has a 25% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 5% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #10

Montel Jackson

7th UFC Fight (4-2)

Jackson had been scheduled to face Danaa Batgerel here, but Batgerel withdrew due to visa issues and Buys stepped in on 4 weeks notice while also moving up a weight class.

Coming off an easy R1 KO win, Jackson landed a pair of knockdowns in less than two minutes of action as he calmly disposed of Jesse Strader, who was making his short notice UFC debut and appeared to bring a spoon to a gunfight. With a wrestling background, Jackson had originally set his sights on competing in the Olympics. However, in 2013 the International Olympic Committee threw a wrench in his plans when they voted to remove wrestling from the Olympics, effective in 2020. Jackson soon switched his sights to MMA, where he saw an actual future. He competed in nine amateur fights from 2014 to 2016, where he went 8-1, before turning pro.

After making his pro debut in 2017, Jackson started his career off 5-0, with four KOs including three in R1, before getting a shot on DWCS just a year after his pro debut. He landed another knockout in that match, this time in the third round, which was enough to get him a shot in the UFC.

The UFC threw Jackson straight into the fire, giving him Ricky Simon in his 2018 debut. Simon attempted a ridiculous 20 takedowns, throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Jackson. While Jackson was able to defend 13 of those, Simon still landed seven in a grappling heavy affair. Jackson actually outlanded Simon 42-25 in significant strikes and landed two takedowns of his own, but Simon’s large amount of control was still enough to win him a unanimous decision.

Jackson bounced back from the loss with the first and only submission win of his career, in a 2018 match against Brian Kelleher where he landed a Brabo Choke less than two minutes into the fight. He notably missed weight for that bout, coming in one pound over the limit. So that will be something to keep an eye on, although it hasn’t been an issue in his last few fights.

Following that submission win, Jackson fought to three straight decisions, winning the first two before dropping the last one. The wins notably came against unimpressive opponents in Andre Soukhamthath (2-5 UFC record, no longer in the UFC), and Felipe Dias Colares (2-2 in the UFC). He then faced a tough Brett Johns (5-2 in the UFC) and suffered his second career loss, before bouncing back with the R1 KO win over Strader.

Jackson notably fought his first pro fight at 145 lb, and actually moved up to 155 lb for his second pro match. However, he then moved all the way down to 135 lb for his third pro bout, where he’s stayed ever since. At 5’10” with a 75” reach and massive hands, he’s definitely big for the division. He offers exceptional wrist control, pinning opponents’ arms back like someone picking on their little brother.

His patient fighting style, long reach and strong wrestling skills have kept the striking volume in check for all of his UFC fights. None of his UFC opponents have landed more than 30 significant strikes on him, and the significant striking totals in his last four matches have been 15-14, 26-11, 75-7 and 64-30, all in favor of Jackson. Even in his two career losses, he outlanded his opponents.

Jackson’s two UFC losses came against high-level grapplers in Ricky Simon, who went 7 for 20 on takedowns, and Brett Johns who went 8 for 19 on takedowns. So for the meaningless stat crowd, Jackson is undefeated when his opponents attempt 18 or fewer takedowns.

JP Buys

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Coming off a R2 KO loss in his UFC debut, Buys took on a tough Bruno Silva at 125 lb and was both poked in the eye and kicked in the groin within the first minute of the fight. He absorbed a violent spinning backfist/elbow as the first round ended and then slipped while throwing a kick early in R2 and Silva jumped on top of him. Buys was able to return to his feet, but Silva dropped him with a right cross midway through the second round. As Buys rolled around on the mat trying to recover and return to his feet, Silva continued to unload on him and amazingly notched three knockdowns in a matter of mere seconds before the ref stopped the fight. When the dust settled, Silva finished ahead in significant strikes 37-17 and in total strikes 62-37 while landing 1 of his 2 takedown attempts with nearly four minutes of total control time, while stuffing Buys’ only attempt. It seemed like everything that could go wrong did go wrong for Buys in the fight.

Buys has now gone 4-3 in his career at 125 lb, but is impressively undefeated at 135 lb with a 5-0 record. He will notably now be moving back up to 135 lb where he had previously won four in a row from 2018 to 2019 before he dropped down to 125 lb when he made his second appearance on DWCS back in 2020. In his 12 pro fights, Buys has still never been introduced to the judges, with three wins by KO, five by submission and one by DQ. He’s also been knocked out twice and submitted once, although all of those losses occurred down at 125 lb.

After turning pro in 2015 when he was just 19 years old, Buys started his career off 4-1, with three first round submission wins, a second round KO, and a first round submission loss. He was then invited onto DWCS in 2017 when he was just 21, but lost via TKO in the second round against Joby Sanchez, who went on to go 0-2 in the UFC before being released in 2018. The stoppage seemed really quick for what it’s worth, and Buys was never close to out. That remains the only KO/TKO loss of his career.

Following the loss, Buys bounced back with another first round submission win, followed by a DQ victory in the third round of a 2018 fight. He kept his winning streak alive with a R4 KO next, before moving from South Africa to the US and joining Fortis MMA in Dallas. He then took a fight in the LFA in 2019, which he won with a first round KO through ground and pound after quickly getting his opponent to the mat. That was enough for the UFC to give him another shot on DWCS in November 2020.

In that fight, Buys controlled his opponent, Jacob Silva, for the entire first round and nearly submitted him a couple of times before getting a somewhat favorable quick stoppage in his favor, as Marc Goddard thought Silva was out when he actually was not. In fairness to Goddard, it was hard to see clearly as the two fighters were up against the cage with Buys locked into a Guillotine Choke. However, it was clear afterwards that Silva was never out as Goddard had thought. It was a rough call for Silva, but it sort of evened the playing field for Buys after he was the victim of a too quick stoppage in his first appearance on the show. Regardless of the outcome, Buys had completely controlled Silva for the entire round and was dominating the fight—Silva didn’t land a single significant strike. Buys then made his UFC debut in May 2021 where he was finished in the second round.

With a wrestling background, the BJJ brown belt Buys clearly knows where his bread is buttered. He looks to get fights to the mat quickly and to keep his opponents controlled until he can finish them, which generally hasn’t been a problem for him as all 12 of his fights have ended early. As if making your UFC debut doesn’t come with enough pressure as it is, Buys fought on the same card as his psychotic wife, Cheyanne Buys, in his debut and was the first fight on the card. You may remember Cheyanne’s outburst following her loss on that card, “I’ll follow you home bitch!” as she was being restrained.

Fight Prediction:

Jackson will have a 5” height advantage and massive 8” reach advantage.

This sets up as a high-level wrestling match between two young fighters who both had olympic aspirations prior to switching over to MMA. They come into this fight on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of momentum as Jackson is coming off a dominating win and Buys is looking to bounce back from a lopsided loss. In reality, they’re probably more closely matched than people realize, but Jackson definitely is the better striker and has a huge size advantage. Notable for this matchup, both of Jackson’s career losses have come against impressive grapplers in Ricky Simon and Brett Johns, where Jackson was taken down a combined 15 times on a ridiculous 39 attempts with over 14 minutes of combined control time against him. While we’re not saying that Buys is as good a wrestler as either of those two, we also don’t know for sure that he’s not. If Buys can get this fight to the ground and assume top position, he should surprise a lot of people, but if Jackson can either keep it standing or put Buys on his back then he should be able to dictate the action. Jackson’s 66% takedown defense isn’t terrible but it’s far from impenetrable. While most people are assuming a Jackson KO or decision win is inevitable, there are a wide range of potential outcomes here and the only thing that would surprise us would be for Buys to win a striking battle on the feet. A Jackson win is still the most likely outcome, but don’t be surprised if Buys is able to get him down and control him on his way to landing a finish either through ground and pound or with a submission.

All of the betting value lies on Buys’ side and we love betting this fight as a high-risk high-reward payday. Our favorite options are Buys’ ML at +490, his ITD line at +850, his R1 and R2 win lines at +2300 and +2600 respectively, his R2 KO line at +4800 and his R1 submission line at +3900. As a hedge, we’re also betting “Fight Ends in R1” at +145 and “Fight Ends in R2” at +430.

DFS Implications:

Jackson has put up impressive DraftKings totals of 116, 148, 109 and 96 in his three UFC wins, while scoring 133 164, 76 and 114 points on FanDuel. It’s notable that his biggest score came in a decision victory, so he’s shown he can break slates even without a finish. That scoring explosion came on the back of 11 takedowns, 7 takedowns defended, one knockdown, nearly 11 minutes of control time and a 75-7 lead in significant strikes. However, it’s also important to pay attention to the fact that his other decision scored decently on DraftKings with 109 points, but just 76 points on FanDuel. His DraftKings total was propped up by nearly eight minutes of control time and 160 total strikes. So his wrestling style is clearly safer on DraftKings, while he’s reliant on huge takedown numbers or finishes on FanDuel. He projects to be one of the most popular plays on the slate, so there’s a lot of leverage to be had by fading him to some degree, but it’s obviously risky based on his unmistakable upside. The odds imply he has an 83% chance to win, a slate-leading 54% chance to get a finish and a 27% chance it comes in R1.

Buys’ recent one-sided loss in his UFC debut combined by his extremely wide odds to win should massively depress his ownership, while we can say just the opposite about Jackson coming off a massive victory. This is your classic buy-low, sell-high spot for tournaments as recency bias drives a gigantic wedge between these two talented young fighters. Literally everything went wrong for Buys in his UFC debut, and while it remains somewhat of a mystery as to how exactly he stacks up in the UFC, those are the exact spots we’re looking to get ahead of in tournaments. It’s entirely possible he comes out and gets dominated once again by a bright young prospect in Jackson, but it’s also possible that Buys puts up a smothering grappling performance of his own. His DWCS performance would have been good for 112 DraftKings points and 129 points on FanDuel. However, in a longer fight he would generally score better on DraftKings through control time and ground strikes. While this looks like a tougher matchup for a dominating wrestling performance, that doesn’t mean it can't happen. We’ve seen Jackson lose grappling matches in the past as he was controlled by both Brett Johns and Ricky Simon, who are clearly both exceptional talents, but that’s still something to consider. Buys has never been to the judges in his 12 pro fights and has only seen the third round twice. And while he’s moving up a weight class, he’s actually gone 5-0 at 135 lb in his career, while just going 4-3 at 125 lb. Overall he’s one of our favorite high-risk plays on the slate, but you’ll want decent exposure to both sides of this fight. While the odds imply he has just a 17% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish and a 4% chance it comes in R1, we think those numbers are all way too low.

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Fight #9

Rongzhu

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Rongzhu had been scheduled to face Dakota Bush here, but Bush tested positive for COVID mid fight week and Jenkins stepped in on short notice.

Coming off a loss in his UFC debut where he entered as a -250 favorite, Rongzhu was outlanded by Kazula Vargas 96-42 in significant strikes and 111-49 in total strikes. Rongzhu landed three of his four takedown attempts, while Vargas went 0 for 1, but Vargas nearly submitted Rongzhu early in the second round with a Guillotine Choke. Rongzhu did pick up the pace in the third round where he landed 27 significant strikes over the final five minutes (5.4 SSL/min).

Rongzhu came into that fight on a 10 fight winning streak, with nine of those wins coming early, including four in the first round. However, he had been fighting a lot of questionable competition so those results should be taken with a grain of salt. With that said, he’s now 17-4 as a pro, with 15 of his 17 wins coming early. He has 11 wins by KO and four by submission, with nine first round finishes. Prior to losing a decision in his UFC debut, all three of his career losses had come by first round submission.

Despite fighting at 140 lb early in his career, Rongzhu doesn’t look to be undersized for the 155 lb weight class. He ridiculously turned pro at just 16 years old, so it makes sense he would grow into a higher weight class as his career progressed. He’s still just 21 years old, despite having 21 pro fights under his belt.

With just one UFC fight to his name, it’s still hard to say how Rongzhu’s previous finishing ability will translate to the UFC, as many of his wins have come against very inexperienced opponents. Here are the records of his pre-UFC opponents coming into his fights: 0-0, 1-1, 1-1, 2-7, 1-1 (L), 9-4 (L), 6-1, 1-1, 3-2-1, 13-10 (L), 7-2, 2-1, 3-0, 19-4, 0-1, 18-5, 10-9, 0-4, 17-5, and 9-7. Why he would be fighting an 0-4 fighter just three fights before joining the UFC is sort of a mystery and things like that have to make you wonder.

Brandon Jenkins

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Jenkins is stepping into his UFC debut on just a few days notice after knocking out former UFC fighter Jacob Kilburn just three weeks ago. However, Kilburn notably got destroyed in both of his UFC fights, which each took place at 145 lb, before joining the PFL and fighting Jenkins up a weight class at 155 lb.

Jenkins is a one-dimensional striker who relies heavily on his leg kicks to win fights. He also mixes in flying knees and spinning elbows, which is how he landed his last two finishes. He’s somewhat of a patient fighter and despite his nickname “The Human Highlight Reel” he recently fought to a boring 25 minute decision in his second most recent fight. With that said, four of his last five fights have ended in knockouts (3-1), but he’s also fought to decisions in four of his last eight.

He’s now 15-7 as a pro, with 10 wins by KO, three by submission and just two decisions. Of his seven career losses, five have gone the distance and he’s been finished just twice. The first of those was a 2015 R1 Rear-Naked Choke and the second was a 2019 R3 Flying Knee KO.

Jenkins has fought anywhere from 145 lb to 170 lb in the past, but his most recent fight took place at 155 lb just three weeks ago. However, prior to that he fought at 165 lb Catchweight, 170 lb, 158 lb Catchweight and 165 lb Catchweight. Prior to those four he did have eight straight fights at 155 lb, but it will be important to monitor him at weigh-ins considering he took this fight on just a few days notice and has often fought up a weight class. One final note, in his second most recent fight he said he got his contact lens knocked out in one of the rounds and was essentially blind afterwards.

Fight Prediction:

Jenkins will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

Rongzhu appears to have the grappling advantage here, although it also wouldn't be surprising if this fight played out entirely on the feet. Rongzhu has never been knocked out in his career and Jenkins has only been knocked out once, so barring a perfectly placed flying knee or spinning elbow the odds are better than not that both of their chins hold up. There’s somewhat of a chance that Rongzhu submits Jenkins, but the more likely outcome is that this fight ends in a decision. With one guy making his short notice UFC debut and the other coming off a loss in his recent UFC debut, this is a high-variance, low-level fight that could go a lot of ways. With that said, we’ll say Rongzhu wins an average volume decision.

DFS Implications:

Rongzhu is priced at just $7,600 despite being a -350 favorite as DraftKings his price was released when he was a slight underdog against Dakota Bush, before the late opponent change propelled him into being a massive favorite. This massive value will drive up Rongzhu’s ownership on DraftKings. The closest recent comps we have for this scenario are Ode Osbourne when he was $7,800 as a -200 favorite against Jerome Rivera, Alex Caceres as a -185 favorite priced at $7,400 against Austin Springer, and Jamall Emmers at $7,800 as a -250 (bet up to -550) favorite against Vince Cachero. Those three carried respective DraftKings ownership of 38% (12 fight card), 55% (10 fight card) and 66% (9 fight card). Considering we’re now on a 14 fight card we could see Rongzhu check in slightly lower, but we still expect him to be very popular as the clear mispriced value play. If pricing were released with the current matchup he would have come in around $9,000 but instead can be had for just $7,600.

Rongzhu has rarely been involved in fights that go the distance, as he’s only seen the judges twice in 21 pro fights. However, all of his pre-UFC fights should be taken with a grain of salt as he was facing a much lower level of competition and his only fight in the UFC ended in a decision. Still, that at least presents some theoretical upside and he did win 10 fights in a row just before making his recent UFC debut. He also now gets an opponent making his UFC debut on just a few day’s notice, so overall Rongzhu has a lot going for him. However, we weren’t overly impressed by him in his first UFC fight, although he did land three takedowns and showed decent power in his hands at times. You’ll definitely want some exposure at his ridiculously cheap price tag, but we wouldn’t recommend going over the field in tournaments despite his glaring value and actually think being under is the move. The best leverage play here seems to be to simply fade this fight and hope it ends in a low scoring decision, which we think is pretty likely. Rongzhu scored just 38 DraftKings points and 46 points on FanDuel in his recent loss, so even if the decision had gone his way that would have been good for just 68 and 66 points respectively. The odds imply Rongzhu has a 72% chance to win, a 43% chance it comes early and a 21% chance he gets a first round finish. All of those seem high to us.

Jenkins has landed finishes in 13 of his 15 career wins, although similar to Rongzhu we have to question some of the competition level that those wins came against. He’s also fought to decisions in four of his last eight fights, despite four of his last five ending in KOs. He’s a one dimensional striker who won’t add anything in the grappling department and doesn’t throw enough volume to score well in a decision, so you’re relying on a finish for him to score well. Rongzhu has notably never been knocked out, and while he has been submitted three times, Jenkins has only one submission win in his last 20 fights. Jenkins does provide an interesting leverage opportunity to the popular Rongzhu, but you can also simply fade this fight as a leverage opportunity and pray for a low scoring decision. The odds imply Jenkins has a 28% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #8

Raquel Pennington

14th UFC Fight (8-5)

Coming off a decision win over Marion Reneau, Pennington now hasn’t fought in 15 months following a six month USADA suspension for accidentally ingesting a banned substance. Pennington actually set a career high in significant strikes landed (107) against Reneau while absorbing just 46. She also tacked on a takedown on two attempts and amassed nearly five and a half minutes of control time.

Pennington is a patient low-volume decision grinder who’s averaged 24.54% control time in her last five fights while getting controlled 20.18% of the time. Seven of her last eight fights have gone the distance with the once exception being a 2018 R5 KO loss to Amanda Nunes. While Pennington is just 2-3 in her last five fights, the three losses have come against Holly Holm, Germaine de Randamie and Amanda Nunes. The last time Pennington finished an opponent was in 2015 when she submitted an undersized Jessica Andrade in the second round with a Rear-Naked Choke. She also had a 2014 R1 Bulldog Choke Submission win against Ashlee Evans-Smith, but her other six UFC wins all ended in decisions. Four of her five UFC losses have also ended with the judges, with her only early UFC loss coming against Nunes.

Looking at her entire pro career, Pennington is 11-8 with one KO win, three submission victories and seven decision wins. She’s been knocked out once and submitted once, which came in a 2012 R2 Rear-Naked Choke loss against Cat Zingano. Her other six career losses all ended in decisions.

Pannie Kianzad

7th UFC Fight (4-2)

Fresh off a close/questionable decision win over Alexis Davis, Kianzad has now won four straight decisions after losing a decision to Julia Avila in 2019. Kianzad was outlanded by Alexis Davis 132-124 in significant strikes and 147-124 in total strikes while also getting taken down once in the second round. Despite Davis leading in total strikes and significant strikes in two of the three rounds, two of the judges ruled it in favor of Kianzad 30-27. If you guessed that one of those judges was Junichiro Kamijo, you are correct.

Kianzad has landed at least 92 significant strikes in her last four fights, with totals of 124, 92, 103 and 98. However she’s essentially a one-dimensional striker with only one takedown in her six UFC matches and none in her last four. Her last six and 9 of her last 10 fights have notably gone the distance. The only fight to end early during that time was a 2018 R2 Submission loss to Macy Chiasson in Kianzad’s UFC debut. Kianzad fought her next fight following that loss outside of the UFC, where she won a decision and then returned to the organization to lose a decision to Julia Avila in 2019. She then won decisions against Jessica-Rose Clark, Bethe Correia and Sijara Eubanks leading up to her recent victory over Davis.

In her second most recent fight, Kianzad was controlled by Sijara Eubanks on the ground for essentially the entire first round of the fight, but bounced back to win the later two rounds on her way to winning a close, but unanimous 29-28 decision win. Kianzad outlanded Eubanks 92-49 in significant strikes and 132-70 in total strikes, while Eubanks went 2 for 4 on takedowns and accrued six and a half minutes of control time.

Looking at her entire pro career, Kianzad is 15-5, with three wins by KO and 12 decisions. Two of her three KO wins came in her first three pro fights, with the third coming in her 6th pro match back in 2014. Those knockouts came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0 and 1-1. Two of the knockouts occurred in the third round, with one ending in R1. Three of her five career losses have ended early, with a 2015 R2 KO, a 2017 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission and a 2018 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission and she’s been somewhat prone to being choke out.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’7” but Pennington will have a 1” reach advantage.

Kianzad lands more volume but Pennington does a good job of making fights dirty and tying up her opponents. Kianzad has been controlled for an average of 24.64% of her last six fights, which should play right into Pennington’s game. We like Pennington to make this fight ugly and win the control time battle and we’d be shocked if this fight ended early. While we like Pennington’s chances to grind out a decision win, Kianzad often steals close decisions and with the MMA judging you really never know.

The safest bet here is clearly FGTD, but at -320 we’re not really interested unless you want to include it in parlays. So you can consider Pennington’s moneyline at -130 or “Pennington Wins by Decision” at +125. If you want to take a stab on something you can consider “Pennington WIns by Submission” at +850.

DFS Implications:

Pennington is an unlikely candidate to really score well in DFS with Draftkings scores of 95, 71, 78, 77, 64 and 107 in her last six wins. Her lone triple digit score came in a 2015 submission win and she generally struggles to crack 80 points. She set a career high in significant strikes in her last fight, which allowed her to score a somewhat respectable 95 DraftKings points and 96 points on FanDuel, but it’s hard to rely on her setting new career totals every time out. With that said, Kianzad generally partakes in pace up fights and could push the pace. Pennington generally tacks on a takedown to give her score a boost, but Kianzad notably has a 78% takedown defense. The only real reason to consider Pennington for tournaments is that she projects to go incredibly low owned and crazy things happen every week. The odds imply she has a 54% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

Kianzad is almost entirely reliant on striking to score well in DFS, as she has landed just one takedown on seven attempts across her six UFC fights. While Kianzad does land a high amount of striking volume at 5.71 significant strikes per minute (3rd highest on the slate), it’s not really enough to score well in a decision, but keeps her in the value play discussion on FanDuel, where she should also benefit from takedowns defended. Her four UFC wins (all decisions) have scored 80, 79, 72 and 72 DraftKings points and 94, 81, 94 and 85 points on FanDuel. That leaves her reliant on a finish to really score well, something she hasn’t done in seven years going back to her 6th pro fight. While there is somewhat of a chance she can serve as a value play with a decision win, on a slate this large she would need a lot else to go right to crack the optimal lineup. The odds imply Kianzad has a 46% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #7

Tafon Nchukwi

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Nchukwi has decided to move back up to 205 lb after fighting his first two UFC fights down at 185 lb, it seemed like the cut down to 185 lb was a brutal one for Nchukwi and we thought he looked slightly better at 205 lb before joining the UFC. In his first three pro fights, he actually competed at Heavyweight, weighing in at 235 lb, 223 lb, and 222 lb. The last of those wins notably came against William Knight, which is the only time Knight has been finished in his career. Then Nchukwi dropped down to 205 lb when he went on DWCS in 2020 in what was just his fourth pro fight and next dropped all the way down to 185 lb for his 2020 UFC debut, in what was his fifth pro fight. Regardless of weight, Nchukwi won all five of those fights with knockouts in the first four. The first time he ever made it past the second round came in his UFC debut, where he won a decision. Nchukwi also has a background in Muay Thai, where he went 13-1, as well as winning a kickboxing world championship before switching to MMA.

In his recent loss, Nchukwi was outlanded by Junyong Park 71-58 in significant strikes and 79-64 in total strikes. Park went 2 for 5 on takedowns with nearly four minutes of control time, while Nchukwi went 1 for 2 on his attempts. Park dominated the final three minutes of the third round on the ground and nearly got a finish, but showing just how completely insane UFC judging in the scores came in 30-25, 29-26 and 28-28. So while one judge ruled it as one of the more dominating decisions you can have another scored it as a draw.

In his December UFC debut, Nchukwi showed the ability to go three full rounds. He landed a solid amount of volume in that fight, as he outlanded Jamie Pickett 120-40 in significant strikes and 159-40 in total strikes. Nchukwi went 0 for 2 on takedowns, while defending three of Pickett’s four attempts. Nchukwi throws dangerous head kicks, oftentimes at the ends of combinations. He caught Pickett with one midway through the third round and followed it up with a knee to the body that dropped Pickett. The fight looked close to being stopped, but Nchukwi was unable to finish Pickett on the ground and it went to a decision shortly thereafter.

Nchukwi landed his shot in the UFC with a September R2 KO win on DWCS over a much smaller opponent in Al Matavao. Nchukwi stands 6’0” with a 77” reach and weighed in at 204 lb for that fight. Matavao is 5’8” with a 67.5” reach and weighed only 200 lb. Nchukwi was slightly outlanded by Matavao in significant strikes (55-47), but was clearly landing the more powerful blows and then brutally knocked out the smaller Matavao in R2 with a violent left kick that left him out cold on the mat for several minutes.

Mike Rodriguez

8th UFC Fight (2-4, NC)

Coming off his second straight submission loss, Rodriguez has now lost four of his last five fights, although the first of those losses was later overturned to a No Contest. While he’s shown he’s completely helpless on the ground, Rodriguez is dangerous on the feet and the UFC mercifully decided to pair him up with another one-dimensional striker here.

In his recent submission loss, Rodriguez went against one-dimensional grappler Danilo Marques in a clash of styles where grappling prevailed over striking once again. Marques shot for his first takedown of the match just eight seconds into the fight and while Rodriguez was too slow to stop it, he did get back to his feet relatively quickly—just not for very long. Rodriguez ended up spending basically the entire round in the clinch or on the mat but did finally escape in the final 30 seconds. Then, he was able to keep the fight standing for the first minute in round two, before Marques got it back to the ground 90 seconds in as Rodriguez appeared to be fatiguing. Marques spent the rest of the fight on top of Rodriguez before ending the fight with a Rear-Naked Choke with just eight seconds remaining in the second round. Marques finished ahead 29-16 in significant strikes and 55-34 in total strikes, while going 4 for 7 on takedowns with over seven and a half minutes of control time. He also ended with two official submission attempts.

Prior to that loss, Rodriguez suffered a questionable loss where he clearly landed a knee to the body of Ed Herman in the second round that crumpled Herman to the mat. As Rodriguez went in to finish him on the ground, the ref stopped the action and called time to Rodriguez’s bewilderment. Despite the knee landing clearly to the chest of Herman, the ref deemed it a low blow and allowed Herman multiple minutes to recover. So in reality, that should have been a R2 KO win for Rodriguez. Herman looked dangerously close to being finished at two other points following that, but was able to survive and land a hail mary Kimura Submission on Rodriguez in the third round. It also looked like Herman hooked his toes in the cage to help him set up the submission, so really just an all around shady performance from the old grifter.

Just three weeks prior to that loss, Rodriguez landed a R1 KO on a highly suspect Marcin Prachnio. Rodriguez’s only two UFC wins notably both came against terrible opponents in Prachnio (2-3 in the UFC with three R1 losses) and Adam Milstead (went 1-3 in the UFC before being released, but one loss was overturned to a NC because his opponent tested positive for THC). Neither of those two are grapplers.

The first time Rodriguez faced a pure grappler in the UFC was when he went up against Devin Clark in his 2018 UFC debut. Clark landed 7 of 11 takedown attempts and outlanded Rodriguez 50-40 in significant strikes, while amassing 11 and a half minutes of control time en route to winning a decision.

Rodriguez is now 11-6 as pro not counting a decision loss which was later overturned to a No Contest. All 11 of his wins have come early with nine KOs and two submissions. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2019), submitted three times and has lost both of the decisions he’s been to, not counting the decision loss that was later overturned to a No Contest. Rodriguez’s last six wins have all come by R1 KO and all nine of his career KO wins have come in the first round with both of his submission wins occuring in R2.

Fight Prediction:

Rodriguez will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.

The UFC mercifully decided to pair these two one-dimensional strikers against one another as they each have no desire to roll around on the mat. This sets up as an uptempo kickboxing match with each of these two allergic to grappling. “Slow” Mike Rodriguez actually looks like the quicker of the two and will also have a noticeable size advantage in this fight. However, Nchukwi has so far looked a little more durable as he’s never been knocked out in his short MMA career, while Rodriguez was knocked out in 64 seconds back in 2019 by Da Un Jung in his first career KO loss. Nchukwi averages the second most significant strikes landed per minute at 6.08 while Rodriguez averages the seventh most at 4.61, so we expect to see a high-volume striking match, but it’s also possible that we see some respect shown early with an initial feeling out process. If Nchukwi gets in trouble don’t be surprised if he looks for a takedown, but overall we’re expecting this to remain on the feet. Rodriguez has gone 0 for 1 on takedowns in his eight UFC fights, while Nchukwi has gone 1 for 4. This should be a fun striking match to watch and we could see the outcome hinging on who’s chin holds up. Nchukwi throws devastating head kicks, while Rodriguez likes to throw dangerous knees out of the clinch. This feels like a coinflip and we could see it going either way, but we don’t have much confidence in either one of these two. Forced to choose, we’ll take the plus odds on Rodriguez.

The three bets we’re looking at here are “Rodriguez R1 KO” at +600, “Fight Ends in R1 KO” at +210 and “Rodriguez R2 Submission” at +5000 as a hail mary option.

DFS Implications:

Even in a decision, Nchukwi was still able to score a respectable 101 DraftKings points and 113 points on FanDuel in his UFC debut. However, that required a knockdown and an above average amount of striking volume, with 120 significant strikes and 159 total strikes. From what we’ve seen from him in limited tape, he does generally throw a decent amount of volume, but not enough to keep up the pace he set there. In his DWCS fight, he was on pace to land 100 significant strikes and 105 total strikes. So if he hadn’t landed a knockdown in his last match and sustained the pace from his DWCS fight, he would have scored just 76 DraftKings points and 89 points on FanDuel. So overall it’s hard to rely on Nchukwi to score decently in a decision and you’re playing him for his knockout ability. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 35% chance to get a finish and a 15% chance to end it in R1.

Rodriguez is a R1 KO or bust DFS play. All of his wins in his last 12 fights (6) have come in the first round. Contributing to his DFS ceiling, Rodriguez has impressively landed two knockdowns in a single fight, not once but twice in his last six matches. While his wins have been few and far between since joining the UFC, his two victories were good for DK/FD totals of 109/125 and 129/145. So while he hasn’t won often, when he does win he makes it count. Rodriguez is likely fighting for his job here and with Nchukwi moving back up to 205 lb this looks like another high variance spot that you’ll want to have a decent amount of exposure to on both sides. The odds imply Rodriguez has a 47% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #6

Joaquin Buckley

5th UFC Fight (2-2)

Buckley has done nothing but provide highlight reel tape since joining the UFC. Whether he’s knocking people out or getting knocked out, his four UFC fights have all ended in spectacular fashion with four straight knockouts, including three in the first round and a half.

In his most recent fight, he was even able to turn boring Alessio Di Chirico into a finisher. Di Chirico appeared to land somewhat of a lucky shot to finish Buckley, who may have been a little overly aggressive after landing a pair of his own knockouts—including the knockout of the year in 2020 against Impa Kasanganay. Di Chirico connected with his lower shin to the side of Buckley's head midway through the first round, however it almost looked like Di Chirico was attempting to throw a kick to the body and Buckley ducked and leaned his head right into the kick in the worst possible way. Di Chirico’s previous four fights all went the distance (1-3) and he has in no way looked like any sort of finishing threat.

Prior to that loss Buckley landed a pair of R2 KO wins against Jordan Wright and Impa Kasanganay, who each came into those fights having never been officially finished, although Wright did get knocked out on DWCS before the results were overturned to a No Contest.

Buckley originally got his shot in the UFC following first and second round KO wins in the LFA in 2019 and 2020. He ended up fighting Kevin Holland in his UFC debut, just a week after his July 2020 R2 LFA KO victory. Holland had originally been scheduled to fight the week before but Trevin Giles infamously fainted just before the walk out.

Holland had a massive 7” height advantage and 8” reach advantage over Buckley, to go along with his years of UFC experience. Buckley, on the other hand, came into the fight with what he described as “no plan”. With the deck stacked against him, Buckley still landed a number of violent strikes, but Holland ate them all with a smile. Holland showed great patience picking his spots and eventually knocked Buckley out in the third round with a stiff right hand.

Buckley bounced back two months later with the knockout of the year against formerly undefeated up-and-comer Impa Kasanganay. Despite being the underdog in that fight, Buckley seemed to take the lead from the beginning, as he landed several heavy shots before going full zero gravity on Kasanganay.

He followed that up with another convincing R2 KO over a second undefeated opponent in fraudulent Jordan Wright. Buckley nearly finished things in the first round, but Wright held on just long enough to make it to the second round, where he was then immediately knocked out.

Buckley’s last four wins have now all come by KO, with the last three occurring in R2 (the other was in R1). Of his 12 pro wins, nine have been by KO and three have ended in decisions. His four pro losses have consisted of three KOs and one decision.

Notably, Buckley fought at 170 lb until 2019, when he moved up to 185 lb. He’s now 4-2 at Middleweight (185 lb), with all six fights ending in KOs. At just 5’10” the biggest challenge at Middleweight for Buckley appears to be his height, but he does have a legit 76” reach.

Antonio Arroyo

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Arroyo was all set to face Tom Breese back in June, but Breese pulled out at the last second once again and left Arroyo alone at the altar. That was the fourth time in Arroyo’s last five bookings that a fight had fallen through.

Arroyo lost a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights and now comes into this next match desperate for a win. He originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2018, but ended up winning a decision and not getting a contract. He returned to the show 11 months later and landed a second round submission that did earn him a spot on the roster.

He then made his November 2019 UFC debut on a five fight winning streak against dangerous submission specialist and arm snapper Andre Muniz, and spent most of the fight trying to avoid being submitted in a low-volume grappling heavy decision loss. The fact that he was simply able to survive says something about his submission defense, although he has been submitted twice earlier in his career. Arroyo looked exhausted in the second half of the fight, so his cardio is of some concern.

After having three straight fights fall through in 2020, Arroyo finally made it back inside the Octagon 13 months after his debut and took on bowling ball wrestler Deron Winn in a 195 lb Catchweight fight. In a Groundhog Day type performance, Winn took Arroyo down 12 times on 16 attempts and amassed nine and a half minutes of control time, while Arroyo led in significant strikes 45-20 and total strikes 70-64. Again, Arroyo looked exhausted in the second half of the fight and Winn won a unanimous 29-28 decision to send Arroyo to 0-2 in the UFC.

After spending the first six rounds of his UFC career defending submissions and takedowns, Arroyo has to be psyched about going against an opponent who’s a pure striker. Arroyo has decent striking skills himself, but he’s yet to have a chance to really show it in the UFC.

Arroyo has never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, including a 2015 R1 Guillotine Choke and a 2017 R1 Rear-Naked Choke. As we mentioned earlier, he was able to survive the submission attempts of the dangerous grappler Andre Muniz in his UFC debut, so he doesn’t appear overly prone to being submitted at this stage in his career. On the other side of things, Arroyo has four career submission wins himself, including three by Arm-Triangle Choke and one by Rear-Naked Choke. He also has four career KO wins, and only one of his nine pro victories has gone the distance, while two of his four career losses have ended in decisions.

Arroyo’s first nine pro fights all ended in R1, with him winning seven of those (4 KO’s & 3 Submissions). His two losses over that period were both by submission. Keep in mind, those seven wins did come against a much lower level of competition, who entered with records of 0-1, 0-0, 4-5, 0-0, 11-2, 2-4, and 1-1. Three of Arroyo’s last four fights have now ended in decisions. He’s currently 9-4 as a pro with four wins by KO, four submissions and just one decision. He’s never been knocked out but he’s been submitted twice and has lost two of the three decisions he’s been to, which both came in his last two fights. His cardio certainly looks questionable in fights, at least when he’s forced to wrestle for 15 minutes.

Fight Prediction:

Arroyo will have a massive 5” height advantage, but Buckley will actually have a 3” reach advantage.

We expect Arroyo to come out blasting kicks to keep Buckley at distance and slow down the power puncher. If he gets in trouble on the feet he’ll also be looking to take the fight to the ground where he should hold an advantage. With that said, Buckley has massive power and is always a threat to knock out opponents if he can successfully close the distance on the much taller Arroyo. The smaller cage at the Apex should benefit Buckley and we think this fight is close to a coinflip. The odds appear too wide, so the value is on the Arroyo side and he has more ways to win than Buckley, who is entirely reliant on landing a knockout. We like Arroyo’s chances to notch his first UFC win here, but it’s far from a confident pick as he’ll be dodging bombs all day. Whoever wins, we don’t see this fight making it past the second round.

The bets we’re considering are “Arroyo Wins in R1” at +650, “Arroyo Wins in R2” at +1000, “Buckley R2 KO” at +600 and “Fight Ends in R1” at +120.

DFS Implications:

Win or lose Buckley does nothing but churn out big DFS scores for either himself or his opponent. The winners in his four UFC fights have returned DK/FD scores of 115/119 (R1 KO L), 114/128 (R2 KO W), 98/110 (R2 KO W), and 98/127 (R3 KO L). And his last six fights have all ended in KOs, with five of those ending in the first two rounds. Arroyo has notably never been knocked out, however neither had Buckley’s last two victims before they fought him. His ultra aggressive approach to fighting is perfect for producing big DFS scores and his finish or get finished mentality means we generally want to have solid exposure to both sides of his fights. After getting knocked out in the first round of his last match, his ownership shouldn’t get too out of control, but he does notably have an implied 47% chance to get a finish according to the odds, which should keep him fairly popular. The odds also imply he has a 64% chance to win and a 22% chance it comes in R1. We don’t see him scoring well without a finish.

Arroyo’s low striking volume and patient fighting style make it hard for him to score well outside of an early finish, but going against Buckley there’s a solid chance he lands one. Only one of Arroyo’s nine career wins has made it past the second round and Buckley’s last six fights have all ended in KOs (4-2), with two of those ending in the first round and three ending in round two. Arroyo has the ability to win this fight either standing up or on the mat, and he’ll have a massive height advantage that should help him to control the distance with his kicks. We really like him as an underdog play, but think you want solid exposure to both sides of this one. The odds imply Arroyo has a 36% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance to end it in R1.

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Fight #5

Tony Gravely

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Coming off a dominating R2 KO win in a dream spot against Anthony Birchak, Gravely filled up the statsheet with a pair of knockdowns, 39 significant strikes, 61 total strikes, four takedowns on six attempts and over four and half minutes of control time, all in a fight that lasted just six minutes and 31 seconds. The only blemish on the near perfect performance came when he was briefly stuck in a Guillotine attempt, but he calmly got out of it and resumed domination on his way to a R2 KO victory. Just keep in mind, Birchak went 2-4 in two stints with the UFC with all four of his losses ending early, including three in the first round. Gravely had been scheduled to face Maness at that time back in April, but Maness withdrew and Birchak stepped in.

That was Gravely’s third UFC fight after he split the first two. Gravely lost his January 2020 UFC debut against another really tough grappler in Brett Johns via R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission and then defeated Geraldo de Freitas Jr. in a hard fought, grappling-heavy split-decision in his second UFC fight. That was the first time Gravely had been to the judges since 2017, as his previous nine fights had all ended early.

Prior to joining the UFC, Gravely had won seven in a row, with six KOs and one submission. Two of those KOs did notably come in the fourth and fifth rounds of five round fights, so he did have a little extra time to work in those. His last six fights have all made it out of the first round, with four of those making it to round three. Gravely got his shot in the UFC with a third round KO against Ray Rodriguez on DWCS in August 2019.

Gravely has a celebrated background in wrestling in both high school and college and has trained with the VA Tech wrestling team, but is more of a threat to land knockouts through ground and pound than submissions. Nine of his 21 career wins have come by KO, with another three ending in submissions. He also has nine career decision wins.

Five of his six career losses have come by submission, including three in the first round. His only other career loss came by decision and he’s never been knocked out. That decision loss notably came against Merab Dvalishvili and three of his five submission losses also came against UFC fighters in Pat Sabatini, Manny Bermudez and Brett Johns. So he’s been fighting tough competition throughout his career.

He’s notably landed 16 takedowns in his three UFC fights on 30 attempts and leads the slate in takedowns per 15 minutes at 6.1 and attempts at 11.

Nate Maness

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Maness made his short notice UFC debut up at 145 lb against Johnny Munoz Jr. in August 2020 and did a great job of staying upright as Munoz went just 2 for 16 on his takedown attempts. The majority of that fight was spent with Maness pushed up against the cage and absorbing nut shots as Munoz was deducted a point after his third low blow. Munoz finished ahead in significant strikes 49-21, while Maness led in total strikes 158-129 and landed his only takedown attempt. Munoz tacked on nearly 10 minutes of control time as he hunted for takedowns against the cage, but Maness won a unanimous 29-27 decision.

Following the disappointing decision win, Maness planned to drop back down to 135 lb against Luke Sanders, but the fight was moved to 140 lb Catchweight. Sanders looked to have Maness wobbled at multiple points as he landed heavy punches, but Maness was landing some clean shots of his own and eventually dropped Sanders in the second round, in what was the beginning of the end. Sanders got back up to his feet, but Maness was able to take him down, at which point Sanders immediately gave up his back. While Maness is generally not a submission threat, he was still capable of getting his forearm under the chin of Sanders and quickly choked him out. Maness will now finally drop back down to 135 lb, where he has said he is the most comfortable.

Maness’ only career loss came in a 2019 R3 KO. Seven of his 13 pro wins have come early, with the other six ending in decisions. He has four wins by KO and three submissions. His last three fights prior to joining the UFC all ended in KOs (2-1). However, 7 of his last 8 fights have made it out of the first round. Maness is more or less a brawler and doesn’t have any interest in going to the ground in fights unless it’s to finish a compromised opponent with a choke.

Fight Prediction:

Maness will have a 5” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.

This fight will essentially come down to Maness’ takedown defense. Gravely has had trouble at times with high-level grapplers/wrestlers but has routinely dispatched one-dimensional strikers like Maness. However, Maness notably defended 14 of Johnny Munoz’s 16 takedown attempts in his UFC debut and Sanders’ only attempt in his last fight, so he’s only been taken down twice on 17 attempts in his first two UFC fights and owns an 88% takedown defense. Given the smallish sample size, it’s entirely possible that number is fraudulent and he’s never faced a wrestler like Gravely, but at the very least we have no reason to think his takedown defense is bad. His 5’10” size could potentially give Gravely some trouble, although Gravely was able to take down the 5’9” Geraldo de Freitas Jr. 7 times on 17 attempts in his second most recent fight. We still expect Gravely to find solid success getting Maness down and dominating him on the ground, but there is a slight chance Maness can keep the fight standing and turn it into the striking match he’s looking for. With that said, give us Gravely here and we like his chances to land a late KO.

Our favorite bets here are “Gravely Wins by KO” at +340, “Gravely Wins by R3 KO” at +1900, “Fight Ends in Submission” at +440 and “Fight Does Not Go the Distance” at +120.

DFS Implications:

Gravely grinds on opponents with his wrestling, but can also stand and trade on the feet. He’s typically not the most likely to land a first round stoppage, as only three of his 12 career finishes have come in round one, and he won’t necessarily blow you away with his striking, but his overall well rounded game will fill up a statsheet and typically result in a win as long as he doesn’t get submitted. His grappling heavy fighting style lends itself more towards the DraftKings scoring system compared to FanDuel in decisions, but he’s shown the ability to score well on both sites. His two UFC wins have returned DK/FD scores of 138/149 (R2 KO) and 110/100 (R3 DEC) and he absolutely broke the slate in his last outing. This is a little bit of a tougher matchup than his last one (they don’t get much easier), but Gravely has the potential to put on another dominating wrestling performance and potentially land another finish as Maness looks bad on the ground. Don’t be surprised if Gravely wears Maness down and finishes this fight with ground and pound in the middle to late rounds. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 30% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.

This is an incredibly tough spot for Maness and easily the hardest fight of his career. He 100% wants to keep fights standing and Gravely is unlikely to oblige. One bright spot for Maness is that his 88% takedown defense combined with Gravely’s 54% takedown accuracy and slate leading 11 takedown attempts per 15 minutes should allow Maness to prop up his FanDuel score with takedowns defended, so he’s a much better play over there compared to DraftKings. Gravely has never been knocked out and while Maness is coming off a submission win, he’s not really much of a submission threat in general. So Maness is unlikely to be able to capitalize on Gravely’s vulnerability to getting submitted unless he presents his neck on a silver platter. That will likely leave Maness reliant on being the first person to ever knock Gravely out, which is always possible albeit unlikely. So overall we’re not really looking to play Maness on DraftKings and just sprinkling him in on FanDuel in the hopes he gets 10+ takedowns defended and somehow wins a decision or lands a hail mary KO. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #4

Arman Tsarukyan

4th UFC Fight (3-1)

Coming off a dominating grappling performance against Matt Frevola, Tsarukyan landed 10 takedowns on 12 attempts with nearly eight and a half minutes of control time. Tsarukyan also led in significant strikes 50-16 and in total strikes 103-51. Frevola went 0 for 2 on his own takedowns and had just two seconds of control time. Tsarukyan had originally been scheduled to face a pure power striker in Nasrat Haqparast in that spot, but both Haqparast and Frevola’s opponent Azaitar withdrew so they ended up facing each other.

That was Tsarukyan’s third straight win after he lost his 2019 UFC debut against an elite talent in Islam Makhachev. Tsarukyan has impressively won 15 of his last 16 fights with the one exception coming in his debut against Makhachev. Tsarukyan is a solid striker and grappler, and also a smart fighter who generally avoids putting himself in dangerous situations. When he’s facing tougher competition that can result in slower paced fights, but as we saw against Frevola he’s willing to turn it on at times when he has the advantage.

His last four matches have all ended in decisions, with him winning the last three. And his last nine fights have all made it to the third round, with seven of those ending in decisions. Now 16-2 as a pro, he does have 10 early wins, including seven in R1, but eight of his 10 finishes came in his first nine pro fights. Five of those wins were by KO and five were by submission. The only time he’s ever been finished was a 2015 R1 KO in his second pro fight. He looks like a bright up and coming prospect who’s still just 24 years old and appears to be constantly improving.

Tsarukyan was incredibly slow to weigh in for his last fight and when he finally did so, he came in 3 lb over the limit. He requested additional time to try and hit weight, and was able to only miss by 1 lb on his second attempt, so it will obviously be important to monitor him closely at weigh-ins.

Christos Giagos

9th UFC Fight (5-3)

Giagos is coming off two dream matchups against one-dimensional strikers in a terrible Carlton Minus (0-2 in the UFC) and an undersized, short notice replacement in Sean Soriano (0-4 in the UFC). Despite making his return to the UFC fighting up a weight class on short notice, Soriano still had Giagos in trouble at times in the first round before Giagos was able to choke out the submission prone Soriano, who’s now been submitted in five of his seven pro losses, including three of his four UFC fights. Giagos was able to land three takedowns on five attempts in that fight, but Soriano led in significant strikes 33-22 and in total strikes 37-23.

In his previous win over Minus, Giagos took the fight on just a few days notice and won a grappling-heavy decision in a 160 lb Catchweight match. In a completely one-sided fight, Giagos went 5 for 15 on takedowns while accruing nearly nine minutes of control time. While he clumsily looked for multiple submissions, none of them were close enough to go down as an official attempt. He didn’t add a ton in the striking department, as he only outlanded Minus 31-28 in significant strikes and 76-29 in total strikes. In addition to taking the fight on 72 hours notice, Giagos was coming off a 16 month layoff, so there are multiple excuses for his lagging cardio in the back half of the fight, however that seems to be an ongoing issue for him.

Giagos’ third most recent win came against another one-dimensional striker in Damir Hadzovic, and we’ve really only seen Giagos win teed up matchups. Giagos originally joined the UFC in 2014 and went 1-2 before getting released. In his 2014 UFC debut, he was matched up against Gilbert Burns, who easily submitted Giagos with a R1 Armbar. Giagos bounced back in his second UFC fight with a first round submission of his own and followed that up with a decision loss before being let go by the organization.

He went on to fight six times outside of the UFC from 2016-2018, going 4-2. He got knocked out by UFC power puncher Josh Emmett in his first match outside of the organization, but then got a KO of his own in a 2016 fight, which was the last KO he’s landed. His next four fights all ended in decisions, with him winning three of those. For whatever reason, the UFC decided to bring him back at that point, but only on the condition that they get to feed him to Charles Oliveira in his 2018 return. Oliveira unsurprisingly submitted Giagos in the second round. Since that 2018 loss, Giagos again fought to four straight decisions, winning three of them, before his recent R2 submission win over Soriano.

Giagos is a low-volume striker who relies on his grappling to win fights. However, with just a 41% takedown accuracy he relies on quantity over quality as he averages five missed takedowns per 15 minutes. With an 19-8 pro record, Giagos has seven career wins by KO and four by submission, however six of his last seven wins have gone the distance and his finishing ability is questionable at best. Five of his eight career losses have come early, with one KO and four submissions, but three of those losses notably came against Gilbert Burns, Josh Emmett and Charles Oliveira.

Giagos has notably been taken down a combined nine times in his four UFC losses, while he’s only been grounded once in his five UFC wins. So he’s only been successful in the UFC when he’s won the grappling exchanges and this looks like an incredibly tough spot for him to excel in that department.

Fight Prediction:

Giagos will have a 3” height advantage, but Tsarukyan will have a 1” reach advantage.

This matchup couldn’t get much tougher for Giagos and we expect Tsarukyan to have the advantage wherever the fight goes. Tsarukyan’s last two finishes have both come by third round KO and Giagos’ questionable gas tank could contribute to that occurring again here. Giagos has struggled mightily when he’s lost the grappling battle, and we’d be shocked to see him lead the dance here. We like Tsarukyan to win handily, and think there’s a good chance for him to either get it done with a R1 submission or a R3 KO.

Our favorite bets here are “Tsarukyan R1 Submission” at +1000 and “Tsarukyan R3 KO” at +1600. However, you can hedge those some by also (or alternatively) betting his R1 and R3 win lines at +430 and +900 respectively.

DFS Implications:

Tsarukyan exploded for 126 DraftKings points and 116 points on FanDuel in his recent dominating grappling performance over Matt Frevola where he landed 10 takedowns on 12 attempts with over eight minutes of control time. Prior to that he had failed to top 86 DraftKings points in his previous two decision wins. All four of his UFC fights have gone the distance, but he does have 10 career finishes among his 16 pro wins, so he certainly has the ability to finish opponents. This looks like a good spot for him to land his first early win in the UFC and Giagos notably has just a 50% takedown defense so it’s possible we see another flurry of takedowns. In Giagos’ four UFC losses, his opponents have put up DK/FD scores of 98/100 (R3 DEC), 94/109 (R2 SUB), 89/75 (R3 DEC) and 106/120 (R1 SUB). That’s good for an average of 97 DraftKings points and 101 points on FanDuel. Tsarukyan’s ownership will surely be driven up some by his recent scoring explosion as well as his massive slate-leading -800 moneyline, which does give us reason for pause when considering him for tournaments, but he still looks like a solid play with the potential to score well both with a finish or in a decision. The odds imply he has an 85% chance to win, a 34% chance to get a finish and a 15% chance it comes in R1.

Giagos has shown the potential to rack up takedowns in his last few fights, but tends to fade by the third round. We don’t see him putting up a ton of striking volume, so he’ll be almost entirely reliant on grappling stats to score well, which is how he’s scored well in the past. That inherently makes him a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, and his general inability to finish opponents makes him a much riskier FanDuel option. In his last decision victory, he scored 93 DraftKings points, but just 69 points on FanDuel. His cardio has consistently been an issue and is a major concern against a workhorse like Tsarukyan. We don’t have much interest in playing Giagos here, but the selling points are that he’s consistently scored well on DraftKings when he wins, he’s dirt cheap, and he’ll be a low-owned leverage play for tournaments. The odds imply he has just a 15% chance to win, a 7% chance to end it early and a 3% chance to win in R1.

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Fight #3

Ariane Lipski

7th UFC Fight (2-4)

Coming off back-to-back R2 TKO losses via ground and pound, it’s clear Lipski needs to improve her ground game. She claims she’s been working with the Nunes’ to do so, but with just over three months since her last fight, it’s hard to imagine she’s made many drastic changes. She’ll be filling in for Taila Santos here, so she represents a major step down in competition from what Bohm had originally been preparing for.

Lipski looked essentially helpless off her back in her recent two losses as she was taken down and beat up by Muay Thai striker, Antonina Shevchenko, and then wrestler Montana De La Rosa. The second of those was far from surprising, but to see Shevchenko put on a dominating ground performance after getting dominated on the ground herself in her previous fight certainly was. A BJJ purple belt, Lipski will look to grab a limb as she hunts for Arm and Kneebar hail mary submissions on the ground, and will also look to land slicing elbows, but eventually resorts to shelling up and overall lacks a well rounded ground game or the ability to get back to her feet from her back.

Leading up to that pair of early losses, Lipski had won back-to-back fights with a quick R1 Kneebar submission over Luana Carolina and a decision victory over a questionable talent in Isabela de Padua who was making her first and only UFC appearance on just a day’s notice. Lipski lost a pair of decisions in her first two UFC fights against tough opponents, getting Joanne Calderwood in her debut, followed up by Molly McCann.

Prior to joining the UFC, Lipski had won nine straight fights with seven early finishes—including five in R1. Five of those seven wins came by KO and two by submission. She also had a pair of R2 KOs during that time. Just keep in mind she was facing a far lower level of competition back then. She’s now 13-7 a pro, with six wins by KO, three by submission and four decisions. She has three KO losses and four by decision.

Lipski has only landed one takedown in her six UFC fights and none in her last five. However, she’s been taken down eight times herself on 14 attempts from her opponents and owns just a 42% takedown defense. So while she’s a pretty decent striker and generally starts off aggressively, she’s extremely prone to getting taken down and beaten up on the mat. However, if she can ever keep a fight standing she has a chance to put up a big striking total and blow by her 2.76 SSL/min career average and she does have solid hands.

Mandy Bohm

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making her UFC debut, Bohm had originally been scheduled to face Taila Santos back in August but Santos was forced to withdraw due to visa issues and Lipski stepped in with about six weeks to prepare as the matchup was pushed back to September. Bohm also had a fight canceled back in May outside of the UFC and it’s now been 11 months since she last fought. She’s also notably only fought once since May 2019.

This fight will take place at 125 lb, as have Bohm’s last three matches, but she does have two fights on her record up at Bantamweight (135 lb) and won both of those. She made her 2014 pro debut at a 128 lb Catchweight, but her other five pro matches have all come at 125 lb.

Bohm is now 7-0 as a pro plus a No Contest in her pro debut, which was originally a submission loss. Four of her seven wins have come early, with a pair of first round TKOs to go along with a pair of Rear-Naked Chokes (R1 & R3). However, four of her last five fights have made it to the third round with three of those going the distance.

Having a noticeable size advantage in her last two fights, Bohm was often able to control the distance in the striking exchanges. She has proven she can be dangerous from top position and periodically looks to get fights to the ground, generally with body lock takedowns. However, she was also controlled on the mat for extended periods of time in her second most recent fight and doesn’t appear to offer much in terms of defensive grappling off her back. She did notably bounce back in that fight to win the vacant TKO Flyweight belt with a third round Rear-Naked Choke, but looked exhausted by the end.

Overall, Bohm looks like more of a striker than a grappler, but she will typically mix in a few takedowns and finishing opponents on the mat has been how she ends fights early—whether it’s through ground and pound or Rear-Naked Chokes. Just keep in mind that three of her last five fights have gone the distance.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are listed at 5’6” but Bohm will have a 3” reach advantage.

Bohm isn’t the most powerful striker but generally uses her length pretty well and also mixes in sharp elbows and knees from close range. Lipski is far more explosive with her punches but is an absolute liability off her back and struggles to remain upright in fights. We expect Lipski to punch her way into body locks and end up on the mat, at which point her go-to move is to hunt for Kneebar submissions. Both of these two struggle mightily off their backs, so the loser here could be decided by who ends up in that position first. We’re betting it will be Lipski based on her putrid takedown defense. However, she does at least appear to be aware that’s her glaring weakness, so with the right game plan maybe she can avoid getting finished on the mat for the third straight time. Now 2-4 in the UFC and coming off consecutive early losses, Lipski will be desperate for a win here against an opponent making her UFC debut. So with her back against the wall it wouldn’t be shocking to see a desperate Lipski come out swinging and potentially land an early knockout. However, if Bohm can get Lipski down we like her to win the fight and still think that’s the most likely outcome.

All three of Lipski’s career submission wins have occurred in the first round, as have four of her six KO victories with the other two ending in R2. All three of her early losses have also ended in the first two rounds, with the last two ending in R2, so there’s a good chance this fight doesn’t make it to the third round. Our favorite bets are “Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance” at +150 and “Fight Doesn’t Start R3” at +220. For longer shots, we like “Lipski Wins in R1” at +750, “Lipski Wins by R1 Submission” at +2300, “Bohm ITD” at +400 and “Bohm Wins in R2” at +1400. If the line moves in Lipski’s favor, we also like betting Bohm’s ML if you can get plus odds. So that will be something to keep an eye on.

DFS Implications:

Lipski’s aggressive striking and poor takedown defense generally make for high DFS scores for either her or her opponent. Here are the DK/FD scores for the winners in Lipski’s six UFC fights beginning with the most recent: 111/104 (R2 KO L), 115/113 (R2 KO L), 95/107 (R1 SUB W), 102/59 (DEC W), 85/97 (DEC L), and 89/87 (DEC L). So in her two UFC wins she averaged 99 DraftKings points and 83 points on FanDuel. And in her four losses, her opponents averaged 100 points on both sites. While her 2.76 SSL/min looks terrible on paper, she actually comes out of the gates swinging but her helpless 42% takedown defense brings down her striking totals as she’s been controlled for 37.42% of the time in her six UFC fights. She’s also absorbed 4.25 SS/min as she’s dropped four of her six UFC matches. She was absolutely dominated on the ground in each of her last two matches as she was finished with ground and pound in the second round of each. While there’s a very real chance that happens again here, you would think eventually she’ll find a way to stay on her feet long enough to land some clean shots or potentially look to be the one landing takedowns and ground and pound herself. Going against a fighter making her UFC debut, this is somewhat of a high variance spot for Lipski and there are a wide range of potential outcomes. Her last three fights have all ended in the first two rounds and we’re expecting that streak to extend to four here—despite the lines saying otherwise. We’re looking to have solid exposure to both sides of this fight as both ladies have a shot to win and put up a solid score at a very reasonable price tag. The odds imply Lipski has a 52% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.

Making her UFC debut, Bohm had originally been scheduled to face a much tougher Taila Santos in this matchup before getting an easier opponent in Lipski, who’s been finished in the second round with ground and pound in her last two fights. That sets up well for Bohm as she has finished multiple opponents on the mat with either strikes or Rear-Naked Chokes. Bohm has shown a solid takedown accuracy in her pre-UFC fights, and now goes against the accepting 42% takedown defense of Lipski. While Lipski looks like the more explosive striker, we expect Bohm to take this fight to the mat if she gets in trouble on the feet and has a great chance to land another finish. You never know how fighters will respond to pressure when they step inside the Octagon for the first time, so it’s also possible Bohm falls on her face here. Therefore you’ll definitely want exposure to both sides, but we like the upside for whoever wins, and give the edge to Bohm to pull it off. The odds imply she has a 48% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #2

Ion Cutelaba

11th UFC Fight (4-5-1)

Coming off a draw against Dustin Jacoby, Cutelaba landed a ridiculous 9 takedowns on 19 attempts with eight of those coming in R1. Jacoby demonstrated his toughness just to remain in the fight as he ate a ton of heavy elbows and then bounced back in the later rounds as Cutelaba began to slow down. The fight ended in a split-decision draw with Jacoby ahead in significant strikes 84-71, but Cutelaba leading in total strikes 111-100 and in takedowns 9-1 on 19 attempts compared to just three attempts by Jacoby. It’s worth pointing out that Jacoby accepted that fight on less than two week’s notice.

Prior to that draw, Cutelaba was stuck in Ankalaev/COVID purgatory for a year and a half. After losing in a super questionable/early R1 TKO stoppage in their original February 2020 match, they tried and failed to schedule a rematch on four different occasions, but they were all canceled due to COVID. Finally, on the fifth attempt, they barely pulled it off—we say barely because even that time one of Cutelaba’s cornermen tested positive for COVID but the UFC swept that under the carpet to finally get the matchup over with. And after all that, what did we get? Essentially the exact same result we would have gotten in their first matchup if the ref didn’t have such a quick trigger finger—a decisive R1 KO win for Ankalaev.

Cutelaba was then scheduled to face Devin Clark back in May, but Clark withdrew, and Dustin Jacoby stepped in on less than two weeks notice. Now the Cutelaba/Clark matchup is rebooked so these two have had ample time to prepare for one another.

Prior to his recent draw, Cutelaba’s previous six fights had all ended early, including five in R1 and one in R2. He went 3-3 over that period, although two of those losses came against an extremely tough Ankalaev and the other was against Glover Teixeira, who’s preparing for an upcoming title shot.

Cutelaba came into the UFC in 2016 and was fed to submission specialist Misha Cirkunov in his debut. Cutelaba is notably the only person to take Cirkunov past the second round and only the second to make it out of R1. Although you could also argue that Cutelaba failed to capitalize on Cirkunov’s suspect chin for multiple rounds, so it’s a two way street. In the end Cirkunov did eventually get the submission win, it just took him some extra time to do it.

Following the loss, Cutelaba fought to the only two decisions of his UFC career, where he won the first against Jonathan Wilson and then lost the second in a 2016 match against Jared Cannonier, who had just dropped down from Heavyweight to 205 lb and seemed to break Cutelaba mentally as he calmly walked him down with his hands by his side late in the fight. After going nearly nine full rounds in his first three UFC matches, Cutelaba then only made it out of the first round once in his next six matches.

He started off that finishing frenzy with a 22 second 2017 R1 KO over Henrique da Silva and followed that up with another R1 KO win, this time against Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Then he was submitted by Glover Teixeira in the second round of a 2019 match, but bounced back with a R1 KO win over Khalil Rountree in 2019. Cutelaba had still never been knocked out in his career at that point and had only been submitted twice, but then he suffered two straight R1 KO losses to Magomed Ankalaev to bring his UFC record to 4-5 before recently fighting to a draw.

He’s now 15-6-1 plus a No Contest as a pro, with only three of those fights making it to the judges. Of his 14 career finishes, 12 have come by KO and two have been by Omoplata submission (2012 & 2015). The only person to ever knock him out is Magomed Ankalaev, who did so twice. He’s also been submitted twice, by Misha Cirkunov in the third round of his 2016 UFC debut and by Glover Teixeira in 2019. He’s lost one decision and also has one DQ loss for punches to the back of the head. Seventeen of his 23 pro fights have ended in the first round. Now 1-3-1 in his last five fights, Cutelaba should be desperate for a win here to get his overall UFC record back to even.

Cutelaba has a background in Greco-Roman Wrestling, Sambo and Judo, but oftentimes is content with duking it out on the feet. He hasn’t landed any takedowns in seven of his 10 UFC fights and generally only looks for takedowns against strikers. We’ve seen Cutelaba face a few grapplers in the past with mixed results. In his 2016 UFC debut, Cutelaba was submitted by Misha Cirkunov in the third round while Cirkunov went 1 for 3 on takedowns and Cutelaba went 0 for 1. Later he knocked out Gadzhimurad Antigulov in the first round, but not before Antigulov took him down 3 times on 8 attempts. Cutelaba was then submitted by Glover Teixeira in the second round, despite Teixeira missing on all seven of his takedown attempts. Cutelaba didn’t attempt any takedowns in those last two fights and generally seems to rely on his striking when he’s facing grapplers, while utilizing his grappling only when he faces pure strikers—which makes sense as he’s trying to attack his opponents’ weaknesses. Cutelaba has landed 19 takedowns in his 10 UFC fights, but those all came in three matches against pure strikers in Jared Cannonier (6), Khalil Rountree Jr. (4) and Dustin Jacoby (9). This looks like another matchup where Cutelaba will rely on his striking against a pure wrestler in Clark.

Devin Clark

12th UFC Fight (6-5)

Ten months removed from a R1 submission loss to Anthony Smith, all five of Clark’s UFC losses have come in the first two rounds, while all six of his wins have ended in decisions. He had won two in a row prior to the recent loss, but is just 4-4 in his last eight fights. In fairness to him, his last four losses have all come against stiff competition in Anthony Smith, Ryan Spann, Aleksandar Rakic and Jan Blachowicz.

Now 12-5 as a pro, eight of Clark’s wins have ended in decisions. He does have four early finishes among his 12 career wins, but three of those came in his first three pro fights from 2013 to 2015 against opponents who entered with records of 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0. His fourth early win came in his 6th pro fight by way of "Hand Injury". His five losses include two KOs and three submissions, with all five ending in the first two rounds.

A lifelong wrestler, Clark seems adamant about fighting his style of fight, which is to grind out decisions by controlling opponents up against the cage using his tree trunk upper legs. When his game plan fails, it normally does so in dramatic fashion. He was knocked out in R1 of his 2016 UFC debut by Alex Nicholson who went 1-3 in the UFC, and then choked out three fights later by Jan Blachowicz in R2 of their 2017 match. He was also knocked out in R1 by Aleksandar Rakic with a back fist and submitted in R2 by Ryan Spann.

Clark appeared to go through a tough weight cut for his last fight so he’ll be a guy to monitor at weigh-ins.

Fight Prediction:

Cutelaba will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 75” reach.

This is an interesting matchup between two guys with wrestling backgrounds, albeit very different styles. While Clark is really just a pure wrestler, Cutelaba also has dangerous striking and only uses his wrestling when he needs to. Considering all five of Clark’s pro losses have come early (2 KOs & 3 Submission), as have 14 of Cutelba’s 15 career victories, seeing Cutelaba knock Clark out looks like a very likely outcome. Both of Clark’s career KO losses occurred late in the first round and Cutelaba has nine first round KO wins on his record. On the other side of things, the last time Clark got a finish was in 2016 and it came from an opponent hand injury. So if Clark wins look for it to come in a decision, whereas if Cutelaba wins we would expect it to come in a R1 KO. In fact, Cutelaba has only one win beyond the first round in his last 19 fights, which was in a 2016 decision in his second UFC match. And he’s only been out of the first round six times in his 23 fight career (2-3-1). We like Cutelaba to get another R1 KO win here.

Unsurprisingly, our favorite bet is “Cutelaba Wins in R1” at +290. It’s not worth going up to R1 KO at +310 as he does have a couple of submissions on his record. On Clark’s side the only bet worth considering is his decision line at +260.

DFS Implications:

Cutelaba has generally been a R1 or bust DFS play throughout his UFC career, but did notably score 89 DraftKings points and 103 FanDuel points in his recent draw. That came on the back of a dominating grappling performance where he landed 9 takedowns on 19 attempts against the one-dimensional kickboxer in Dustin Jacoby, so you shouldn’t expect to see a repeat performance here against the exact opposite style of fighter in Devin Clark. In his lone decision win in the UFC, Cutelaba scored just 66 DraftKings points and 73 points on FanDuel in a fight that played out entirely on the feet with only one failed takedown attempt. However, as you would expect, he’s put up huge DK/FD scores of 119/133, 107/139 and 131/121 in his three R1 wins and clearly has the ability to lead the slate in scoring. He definitely fades later in fights so it’s hard to rely on him to win if this makes it past the first round, but he does have the potential to defend multiple takedowns as Clark averages eight attempts per 15 minutes and has just a 36% accuracy going against the 78% defense of Cutelaba. So that should bolster his FanDuel scoring. Still, you’re basically just playing Cutelaba for an early finish and not relying on him to score well in a decision. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 42% chance to get a finish and a 21% chance it comes in R1.

Clark relies on dominating grappling performances to score well in DFS, which automatically makes him a much better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel. All six of his UFC wins have ended in decisions, where he’s averaged 94 DraftKings points but just 74 points on FanDuel with DK/FD totals of 86/79, 95/61, 71/62, 129/92, 109/91 and 76/60. While he’s put up a couple of big DK scores with the help of ground strikes, takedowns and control time, he’s failed to ever top 92 points on FanDuel. It’s also important to note that all of his good scores have come against one-dimensional strikers where he’s been able to dominate in wrestling. Considering Cutelaba’s background is also in wrestling this does not look like a good spot for Clark to turn out a ceiling performance, but he always scores better on DraftKings than FanDuel. If you play Clark you’re essentially hoping he can serve as a value play in a decision win, which gets tougher on a slate this large with so many other potential fighters to outscore him. There is a chance that Cutelaba gasses out and Clark can rack up stats in the second half of the fight, but he’ll have to get their first. This looks like a low floor, low ceiling spot for him. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #1

Anthony Smith

17th UFC Fight (10-6)

After suffering two violent one-sided beatdowns to start 2020, Smith bounced back with a pair of first round wins in his most recent two fights. Smith started his 2020 campaign with a life-shortening R5 KO beating at the hands of Glover Teixeira that left Smith picking up his teeth off the canvas. Then just three months later he had his leg destroyed in a smothering three round decision loss to Aleksandar Rakic

Following the pair of grueling losses, Smith took on a less intimidating opponent in wrestler Devin Clark and showed why he had previously been facing monsters in the first place, as he submitted Clark with a Triangle Choke midway through the first round. With 13 submission wins on his record and five Triangle Chokes off his back, Smith showed he can still be dangerous.

After righting the ship against Clark, Smith extended his winning streak to two as he pulled off an upset win over blue chip prospect Jimmy Crute. The win was somewhat flukey as the finish came from an O’Malley-like peroneal nerve injury from a Smith leg strike. Now in fairness, Smith was doing a great job of landing his jab in the first round while Crute had landed several heavy leg kicks. The injury took place late in the first round, but Crute was able to immediately take Smith down following the injury to avoid getting the fight stopped until after the round ended when he still couldn’t walk on his foot properly to start the second round and the doctor stopped the fight. Smith finished ahead in significant strikes 26-18, while Crute led in total strikes 34-27. Crute also landed all three of his takedown attempts, which all occurred after the injury as he panic wrestled to mask the injury. Smith had a 2” reach advantage in that matchup and used it perfectly as he maximized his jab and masterfully controlled the distance against an absolute savage in Jimmy Crute.

Smith’s last nine wins have all come early with six KOs and three submissions. Prior to his recent pair of R1 wins, he submitted an aging Alexander Gustafsson in R4 of their 2019 main event and also previously submitted Volkan Oezdemir in R3 of their 2018 five round fight. Leading up to those three submissions, his five previous wins had all come by KO, including two in R1, two in R3 and one in R2.

Smith’s last four losses have all come against big names in Thiago Santos, Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic. His other two UFC losses came in his first three UFC fights, in his 2013 debut via R1 submission against Antonio Braga Neto and in a three round decision in his third UFC fight against Cezar Ferreira. So half of Smith’s six UFC losses have come by decision, while he’s also been knocked out in R2 and R5, as well as being submitted in the first round back in 2013 from a Kneebar.

Prior to his last two fights ending before the second round, Smith had been to at least the third round in five straight matches, with three seeing the fourth round and two making it to the fifth. Smith is a BJJ black belt and has proven he’s dangerous on the ground from just about any position. Of his 35 career wins, 19 have come by KO, 13 have ended in submissions and just two have come by decision. Looking at his 16 career losses, he’s been knocked nine times, submitted on four occurrences and lost three decisions. So only 5 of his 51 pro fights have made it to the judges (9.8%) and he’s lost three of those. Two of those three decision losses came in his last three defeats and the only time he’s been finished in his last nine fights (since he moved up to Light Heavyweight) came in the fifth round against Glover Teixeira. Smith has demonstrated his toughness and improvement over the years as after he was finished 11 times in his first 29 pro fights (37.9%), he’s only been finished twice in his last 22 matches (9%). Impressively, h’s actually been more durable at Light Heavyweight than he was at Middleweight, at least in terms of the percentage of times he’s been finished. He made the switch following a 2018 R2 KO loss against Thiago Santos and has since gone 6-3 with all six of his wins coming early and two of his three losses ending in decisions.

We’ll be the first to admit that we had lost all confidence in Smith following his pair of 2020 losses, but he’s proven he still has some fight left in him and looked good against Crute. He also looked like he had lost all confidence in himself following the demoralizing loss to Rakic, but he seems to have regained it with back-to-back first round wins. Now he’ll face another dangerous striker, but still a step down in competition from Teixeira, Rakic or Crute.

Ryan Spann

7th UFC Fight (5-1)

Coming off a R1 KO of a high-level grappler in glass-chinned Misha Cirkunov, Spann notably looked terrible at his last weigh-in but was still able to land a finish in just 71 seconds. Spann knocked Cirkunov down just 47 seconds into the first round, but Cirkunov was able to briefly survive as Spann made him stand back up. As Cirkunov thought about going for a takedown Spann clipped him again and quickly finished him with hammer fists on the ground.

That came just one fight after Spann was knocked out himself in the first round by Johnny Walker in a chaotic couple of minutes against Johnny Walker. Spann landed two knockdowns and a pair of takedowns in under three minutes before getting elbowed and smashed in the side/back of the head as he shot for one last ill-fated takedown, which resulted in the fight getting stopped. Walker looked to be in real trouble after Spann dropped him with a left hook, but he was able to recover and somehow still win the fight just moments later. That loss snapped an eight fight winning streak, which spanned back to to 2017 following a loss to Karl Roberson on DWCS. Six of those eight wins had come early, including five in R1.

After getting knocked out in 15 seconds in his first appearance on DWCS back in 2017, Spann joined the LFA and finished three straight opponents in the first round, two by KO and one by Rear-Naked Choke. The impressive string of wins landed him a second shot on DWCS in 2018, and this time he landed an ultra fast finish of his own, with a 26 second Guillotine Choke Submission win.

Spann then won a low-volume decision in his 2018 UFC debut before knocking out senior citizen Antonio Nogueira in the first round of his next fight. He then submitted Devin Clark with a R2 Guillotine Choke before defeating Sam Alvey in a decision. Spann nearly submitted Alvey in the first round, however Alvey had Spann in real trouble late in the third round as he wobbled him on the feet. Spann was barely able to hang on to win a decision and it would have been really interesting to see how much he had left if that fight were scheduled to go any longer. That certainly makes you wonder how Spann would look in a potential fourth round in this next matchup. Spann was then knocked out by Walker before finishing Cirkunov most recently.

Four of Spann’s six career losses have come early, with three KOs and one submission. All three of those KOs came in the first round, while his lone submission loss was by Rear-Naked Choke in the second round of a 2016 LFA match. Of his 19 career wins, 16 have come early. While the perception is that he’s more of a knockout threat, which still could be true at this point in his career, 11 of his 16 finishes have come by submission, including 9 in the first round. Seven of those submission wins have come by Guillotine Choke. All five of his career KO wins have also come in the first round and 17 of his 25 pro fights have ended in the first five minutes. Ten of his last 12 fights have ended early, with nine of those ending in R1.

Spann initially missed weight by a half pound for his last fight and looked terrible doing so. He did take the extra allotted hour of time to re-weigh and successfully made weight on his second attempt, but the weight cut looked brutal so it will be important to monitor him at weigh-ins.

Fight Prediction:

Spann will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.

Both of these two have proven themselves to be finishers with 80% of Spann’s career fights ending early and 90% of Smith’s, and each have shown they can finish fights in a variety of ways. Spann appears to be the more powerful striker, while the BJJ black belt Smith should have a major grappling advantage over the blue belt Spann. Smith is also the far more experienced fighter with over twice as many pro fights (51) as Spann (25), despite being just three years older. He also appears to have better cardio than Spann, which will likely show if this fight makes it to the back half. However, we definitely don’t see this fight going the distance and think the most likely outcome is a mid round win for Smith, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see this one end in the first round either.

We’re treading lightly here and just taking a few stabs on “Smith R3 Win” at +850, “Smith R4 Win” at +1400, “Smith Wins by Submission” at +380, “Spann R1 Win” at +700 and “Fight Ends in R1” at +280.

DFS Implications:

Smith has landed just four takedowns in his last 14 fights, with no more than one in any of those. He only attempts around two per 15 minutes and with just a 28% takedown accuracy that makes it tough for him to add much to his DFS scoring in that department. He also lands a below average 3.00 significant strikes per minute and has never landed more than 86 in his 16 UFC fights. That leaves him entirely reliant on landing an early finish to score decently. And while almost all of his wins do come early, his lack of striking and takedowns means a later round finish is far from guaranteed to score well. In his 10 UFC wins, beginning with the most recent, he’s put up DK/FD scores of 101/116 (R1 TKO), 98/112 (R1 SUB), 63/75 (R4 SUB), 79/104 (R3 SUB), 109/126 (R1 KO), 128/119 (R1 KO), 70/86 (R3 KO), 83/109 (R3 KO), 100/121 (R2 KO), and 72/66 (R3 DEC). So his lone decision win (three rounds) failed to score well, although was on pace to score 100 DraftKings points and 97 FanDuel points had it gone five rounds. In his nine finishes he averaged 92 DraftKings points and 108 points on FanDuel. However, if we break that down round by round we can get a better idea of how early he needs to get a finish to be useful. All of the finishes came in the first four rounds and his lone R4 win scored just 63 DraftKings points and 75 points on FanDuel, so that’s no good. His three third round wins scored 79, 70 and 83 DraftKings points (77 point average) and 104, 86 and 109 points on FanDuel (100 point average). So that’s still not close to being usable on DraftKings and at best on the fringe of being usable on FanDuel at his price. That leaves him reliant on landing a finish in the first two rounds to return value, something he has notably done in five of his 10 UFC wins where he averaged 107 DraftKings points and 119 points on FanDuel. It’s less likely for him to get left out of the optimal FanDuel lineup with a R1 or R2 finish, but he notably scored “just” 98, 100 and 101 DraftKings points in three of those five R1/R2 wins, so on a slate this large it’s certainly very possible he gets outscored by multiple other high priced fighters and still fails to crack the optimal DK lineup. So best case scenario you’re playing him for a R1 or R2 finish and even then he’s not a lock to crack the optimal on DraftKings, but looks like a better play on FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 40% chance to get a finish, a 13% chance it comes in R1 and a 10% chance it occurs in R2.

Spann’s patient fighting style and relatively low striking volume make him completely dependent on a R1 finish to score well in DFS. He does have 14 R1 wins in his 25 pro fights, but he only has two in his six UFC matches. He scored well in both with DK/FD scores of 107/122 and 112/131, but he only scored 79/93 points in his lone R2 UFC win. And in his two decision victories he returned totals of just 66/68 and 63/74. Those decisions were on pace to score 90/99 and 86/109 had those fights gone 25 minutes, although we’re not sure Spann could keep up that pace for five rounds. So when you combine Spann’s below average striking volume of 3.55 SSL/min with the fact that he may be less inclined to look for takedowns against a dangerous submission threat in Smith, he’ll likely need a first round knockout to really score well. Now at his discounted DraftKings price he could still serve as a value play beyond that, so you can widen his acceptable range of outcomes to his ITD line. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 28% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.

There’s a very real chance that Smith wins this fight beyond the second round, which has the strong potential to produce an underwhelming DFS score, especially on DraftKings. While there’s also still a good chance that this one ends in the first two rounds, we have a clear path for how this fight busts, making it a potentially fadable main event.

Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

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TOP PRIZE PICKS PLAYS FOR UFC THIS WEEK:
Tony Gravely Over 97.5 Fantasy Points
Tafon Nchukwi Under 12.5 min Fight Time
Ion Cutelaba Under 1.5 Takedowns