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Fighter Notes:
Mallory Martin
#28 Strawweight
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Martin is coming off a pathetic UFC debut in which she only landed 9 significant strikes before tapping in R2 against submission machine Vinra Jandiroba. Considering that and her top shelf price tag, her ownership will be lower than maybe it should be as a large favorite in a great matchup. Martin will have a 3” height advantage and a 2” reach advantage.
She came into the UFC on a five fight win streak, with two of those wins coming by KO (R2 & R3) and one by R2 submission. A bit of a grinder, she's never been in a fight that ended in R1. Six of her 9 pro fights have made it to R3 with 5 ending in decisions. She does land a decent number of takedowns to tack onto her generally respectable striking volume.
Hannah Cifers
#90 Flyweight
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Quietly making a run for the most UFC losses in 2020, Cifers has already been beaten three times this year (R1 SUB, R1 SUB, R2 KO) Look we’re just going to say it—this may not be Hannah's year. But to be fair, those losses came against Agapova, Dern, and Hill. In a momentary lapse of judgement Cifers agreed to move up to 125 lb to fight Agapova 14 days after losing to Dern. Cifers now moves back down to her normal 115 lb weight class. Cifers’ only other UFC loss came at the hands of Maycee Barber, so all of her losses have come against tough competition (one of her two pre UFC losses came to Gillian Robertson).
As a big underdog on a three fight skid, with no DFS ceiling and also coming off two recent R1 losses we fully expect Cifers to be the lowest owned fighter on the slate as she should be. You should be targeting Cifer’s opponents pretty much every time she’s on a slate. If Martin has any business in the UFC we think she wins this one with either a mid to late finish or by a disappointing decision.
UPDATE: Cifers missed Weight coming in at 117 lb
Emily Whitmire
#25 Strawweight
4th UFC Fight (2-1)After losing to advanced grappler and submission specialist Gillian Robertson on the Ultimate Fighter finale, Whitmire decided to switch weight classes and dropped from 125 lb Flyweight to 115 lb Strawweight for her UFC debut in 2018. Despite her relatively low-volume, low-power striking she was able to grind out a low scoring decision against unthreatening Jamie Moyle (4-4, loser of three straight, retired?). It’s possible Whitmire just had the debut jitters as she did seem to get a little more aggressive in R3 when she finally took the fight to the mat.
She seemed to carry that momentum into her next fight when she started off with an aggressive take down and submitted then 3-0 (now 3-2) Aleksandra Albu just 61 seconds into the fight via Rear-Naked Choke. The quick finish landed her a supporting role in Amanda Ribas’ UFC debut. Clearly overmatched against borderline psychotic Ribas, Whitmire did well just to survive the first round.
Originally scheduled to fight Viana back in March, Whitmire has now been forced to wait 14 months in-between fights due to general Covid cancelations. With low volume and no significant power, Whitmire seems like nothing more than R1 submission or bust hail mary play. Her only career submission came in the previously mentioned Albu fight and she has zero KO victories as a pro. The one reason for optimism is that she’s now facing an opponent on a three fight losing streak (including a loss to Hanna Cifers), who’s coming off a R1 submission loss.
Polyana Viana
#68 Flyweight
5th UFC Fight (2-2)As mentioned above, Polyana comes in loser of three straight, most recently getting submitted in R1 via Armbar in August of 2019. Her losses have come at the hands of progressively worse opponents beginning with 8-4 (then 7-2) J.J. Aldrich, before moving to 10-6 (then 9-3) Hannah Cifers, and finally 6-4 (then 5-3) Veronica Macedo. What started as a brilliant pro career quickly went full Raiders of the Lost Ark soon after joining the UFC.
Polyana came into the UFC 9-1 as a pro and a former Jiu-Jitsu World Champion with 8 R1 wins (5 submissions with four by armbar and 3 KO’s). She notably KO’d Amanda Ribas in 2015 well before either joined the UFC. It looked like that might translate seamlessly into the UFC after she won her debut in R1 by Rear-Naked Choke submission. But that’s when things started to go sideways for her as she stacked up losses.
Presumably Polyana is fighting for her UFC life, although you never know it seems like they’re running out of warm bodies these days. Working in her favor, Whitmire has been submitted three times as pro—once by Rear-Naked Choke, another by Armbar and the third by Guillotine Choke.
Because of Polyana’s well known ground game and celebrated Jiu Jitsu background we don’t see a clear path to victory for Whitmire in this fight. Neither woman has shown much power in their punches but Polyana does have decent leg striking ability. She’ll also have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage on Saturday. We think Polyana finally breaks her losing streak and wins with her back against the wall. The Polyana R1 and R2 submission lines make for interesting prop bets.
Sean Brady
#43 Welterweight
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Opening as the biggest favorite on the slate, Brady will be highly owned and for good reason. He’s never lost a fight as a pro (12-0) or as an amateur (3-0). His last two fights and 4 of his last 5 have gone to a decision, but he does have three career KO’s with two coming in R1. He also has two career submission wins, both coming by Rear-Naked Choke.
Don’t be fooled by his high number of decisions, Brady has solid power and a decent ground game, averaging three takedowns in his first two UFC fights. Brady has the ability to fill up a DFS scoresheet as he still scored 110 and 92 points respectively in his first two UFC fights despite both ending in decisions. The only way we see Brady failing here is if Aguilera is able to knock him out, which only has a 14% chance of happening according to Vegas odds. This was one of the two fights Dana hyped.
Christian Aguilera
#96 Welterweight
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Aguilera comes in on a three fight win streak with two of those ending in R1 KO’s. Whereas Brady’s first two opponents were known for their ability to avoid getting knocked out/submitted—McGee came in 19-8 with 7 losses by decision and only 1 by KO (0 Submissions) & Naurdiev was 19-3 with 2 losses by decision and only 1 by Submission (0 KO’s)—Aguilera holds a 14-6 record with 11 wins by KO and 4 losses by KO. AND all four of those KO losses (as well as 10 of his 11 KO wins) came in R1. Long story short, when Aguilera’s fights don’t end in a R1 KO it should come as a surprise since 75% of them have.
Coming off a recent R1 KO upset of Anthony Ivy in both of their UFC debuts, Aguilera should be fresh on people's minds. Add that to his bottom of the barrel pricing on both DFS sites and he will likely be significantly higher owned than the actual chances of him knocking Brady out.
While Aguilera always has a fighter’s chance of winning, we like Brady to win this one—and there’s a good chance Brady gets his first early finish in the UFC.
Austin Springer
Unranked
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Signing up for this fight with just two days notice, Springer is a late replacement for Kevin Croom who was a late replacement for Giga Chikadze. In a twist of fate, Springer actually beat Chikadze, Caceres’ original opponent and -255 favorite over Caceres, back in June of 2018 on the Contender Series with a R3 Rear-Naked Choke. Springer has also fought UFC fighter Julian Erosa in the past, so while he’s making his UFC debut he has fought UFC caliber fighters in the past.
Springer succeeded on 4 of 9 takedowns against Chikadze while landing 49 significant strikes and absorbing 38 before ending the fight with 50 seconds left in R3. We’ve seen other fighters struggle against Chikadze’s length and lightning fast kicks so this has potential to be a higher volume fight against Caceres. It’s worth noting, Caceres’ 59% takedown defense checks in a little below Chikadze’s 65% defense.
Springer comes into this fight on a three fight win streak off a lopsided decision win back in October of 2019. His two wins prior to that came before the final bell with a R3 Submission and a R3 KO. Caceres will however, have a 2” height advantage and 2.5” reach advantage over Springer.
UPDATE: Springer missed Weight coming in at 151 lb
Alex Caceres
#38 Featherweight
23rd UFC Fight (11-10, 1 NC)Twelve weeks removed from a decision upset win over UFC darling Chase Hooper, Caceres has now booked his third opponent in as many days. Preparing for a fight with kickboxing specialist Giga Chikadze looks a lot different than preparing for grappler Austin Springer—not to mention he likely spent Wednesday scrambling to prepare for Kevin Croom. So at least from a game plan perspective Springer and Caceres should be on a pretty even playing field. In fairness to Caceres, he does have 9 years and 22 UFC fights worth of experience to fall back on.
Caceres is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since 2016. Not known for finishing fights early, four of his last five fights have gone to decision with the only one that didn’t being a R1 submission loss in 2019. Eight of his 11 UFC wins have come by decision and his last submission win came in 2014. He has one “KO” in the UFC coming on a doctor’s stoppage between rounds for an opponent’s eye injury. He’s also not typically one to string more than two wins together, here are his UFC results beginning with the most recent:
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In his 22 UFC fights he has exactly zero R1 wins, but also has only been finished in R1 three times—and one of those was in his 2011 UFC debut. He’s been submitted by Rear-Naked Choke five times in the UFC (twice in R1), which is how Springer finished Chikadze if we want to start scripting narratives.
Because DraftKings and FanDuel don’t change fighter’s pricing after they’ve been released, Caceres comes into this fight priced as an underdog at only $7,400 on DraftKings and $13 on FanDuel. Because of that, his value jumps off the screen and he’ll be extremely popular—we all know the drill (i.e. Rodriguez, Emmers, etc.).
If Caceres wins he won’t differentiate your lineup much from the field by playing him, but if he loses it presents a massive leverage opportunity with Springer. Based on how cheap both of these fighters are, it would have to be a low scoring decision for fading both guys to pay off unless they are each outscored by multiple other dogs priced around them.
Zak Cummings
#31 Middleweight
13th UFC Fight (8-4)Since moving back up to Middleweight in 2018, where he fought prior to joining the UFC in 2013, Cummings is 2-1 but coming off a three round decision loss. His last four fights have made it to R3 with three of those ending in decisions.
As a low-volume striker who only averages 0.75 tds/15 min, Cummings is only useful in DFS when he finishes fights in R1, which he’s done in 3 of his 12 UFC matches but only once in his last eight. Cummings has ended 17 of his 23 pro wins early but at age 36 he seems to be slowing down. His most dangerous weapon at this point in his career seems to be his Guillotine Choke which is how he got his last two early finishes.
Cummings has won 2 of his last 3 and 4 of his last 6 fights, in addition to only allowing 2.75 SSa/min, so he’s not really a guy you want to target opponents against either. He’s also only been finished early twice in his 30 fight pro career, both times by R2 submission, and those were in 2014 and 2009 respectively.
Alessio Di Chirico
#40 Middleweight
8th UFC FIght (3-4)Coming off consecutive losses, Alessio’s last three fights have all gone to decision. Showing a complete inability to capitalize on a favorable situation, he recently lost to a one-armed Kevin Holland after Holland dislocated his shoulder half way through the fight.
Alessio has only been finished early once in his 16 pro fights, coming at the hands of former UFC fighter Eric Spicely by way of R1 Triangle Choke. Alessio’s record is a little misleading—he has 5 KO’s and 4 Submissions but eight of those 9 came in his first 8 pro fights against guys coming in with records of 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 5-2, 0-0, 5-2-1, and 17-11-3. Four of those guys never fought again and one of them only fought once more in another loss. Alessio’s three UFC wins have come against: Garreth McLellan (1-4 UFC record, no longer in the UFC), Oluwale Bamgbose (1-4 UFC record, no longer in the UFC), and most recently Julian Marquez (1-1 UFC record).
In what’s close to a pick’em, DraftKings interestingly decided to price slight favorite Alessio $600 less than Cummings while FanDuel actually did something right for a change and priced them correctly with Alessio $2 more than Cummings. Presumably the mispricing on DraftKings will drive Alessio’s ownership up and Cummings’ down to some extent. Although we don’t think Alessio’s DFS scores will excite anybody with him yet to put up a useful number.
This sets up as a low scoring decision and a great fight to fade in DFS. Both guys would need a R1 finish to end up in optimal DFS lineups, and as of Friday evening Vegas gives Cummings a 13% chance and Alessio a 10% chance of pulling that off. We think some people will chase Cummings’ 17 early finishes, while others will jam the perceived value on DraftKings with a favorite priced as a dog in Alessio. Neither guy should be too highly owned on either DFS site, but we still think the smart play is to be under the field on both. Maybe you could make an argument for Allesio as a cash play on DraftKings based on pricing. Gun to our head we’ll take Alessio in a decision but this one feels like a coin flip.
Impa Kasanganay
#90 Middleweight
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Fighting for the second time this month, Kasanganay is a raw, athletic talent who only started training for MMA in 2017 and only went pro in 2019. Five of his seven pro fights have ended in decisions, including his last three. He did have two submissions in 2019 but one of them came when his opponent appeared to randomly dislocate his shoulder and couldn't continue. So his only legitimate submission came by Rear-Naked Choke against Roger Pratcher (1-2 record).
With so little to look back on it’s hard to say what Kasanganay’s ceiling is. He did end all three of his amateur fights with R1 KO’s and certainly has the build of a power puncher. But Vegas is only implying an 14% chance of a R1 win for him. His volume and takedowns are both solid enough that he could provide a usable score even beyond R1 but that remains uncertain. We think he’s one of the wildcards on the slate with a wide range of outcomes. This was one of the two fights Dana hyped.
Maki Pitolo
#81 Middleweight
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Pitolo is coming off a R1 submission loss just three weeks ago, against Darren Stewart. This will also be his third fight since June as he jams in as many fights as he can this Summer. He has no interest in grinding out decisions as 7 of his last 8 fights have ended early, as have 15 of his total 19 pro fights with 9 ending in R1.
Pitolo has won 4 of his last 6 fights, but after most recently losing 2 of his first 3 UFC fights he might be feeling the pressure in this one. Look for Maki to push the pace early as he tries to give Impa his first real test. Impa opened the week as a -135 favorite but has since been bet down a little making this fight closer to a pick’em.
Maki was a +145 dog in his last fight and carried 33% ownership on DraftKings where he was priced at $7,600 but was also coming off a R2 KO win. Now with a loss fresh on people’s mind we expect his ownership to be a little lower but still above his R1 KO chances. Unless Maki can land some bombs and get an early finish, we think Kasanganay wins this one by decision.
Magomed Ankalaev
#14 Light Heavyweight
6th UFC Fight (4-1)UPDATE: THIS FIGHT IS CANCELED!
This is a rematch of their last fight where Ankalaev "KO'd" Cutelaba in 38 seconds. It was a very quick, strange (terrible) stoppage in that fight where Cutelaba looked a little wobbled but was still on his feet fighting. He protested the stoppage immediately and it was clear the fight should have continued.
The only blemish on Ankalaev's 13-1 pro record came on a loss in his UFC debut against Paul Craig on a desperation, literal last second Triangle Choke. Four of Ankalaev's five UFC fights have ended early, including two R1 KO victories. He has a total of 6 R1 KO’s as a pro in his 14 fights.
Ion Cutelaba
#18 Light Heavyweight
9th UFC Fight (4-4)This fight was originally scheduled to happen two weeks ago but was canceled after Cutelaba tested positive for COVID in the week leading up to the fight. Seemingly rescheduled almost too quickly, it will be interesting to see if that has any affect on his performance.
Cutelaba’s last five fights have all ended early (four in R1 & one in R2). He held an 11-1 pre UFC record with 11 of those 12 fights ending in R1.
Averaging 113 DraftKings points over his last three wins and priced at only $7200, he should be a popular dog regardless of his long moneyline odds. Despite Cutelaba’s DFS upside we think Ankalaev finishes what he started in their last bout. Look for a less ambiguous R1 KO victory for Ankalaev come Saturday.
Bill Algeo
Unranked
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Algeo will be making his UFC Debut just 16 days after his last fight, but it’s worth noting he didn't appear to take much damage in that previous match. He’ll come into this fight with a 3.5" height advantage and a 2.5" reach advantage. He's also 7 years younger than 38-year-old Lamas.
Prior to his most recent fight, Algeo lost in a three round decision on the Contender Series in June of 2019. Only six of his career 17 fights have ended in decisions, but 5 of his 6 submission wins came very early in his career (2014 and prior). His last two fights and 3 of his last 5 have all gone to decisions. His last 10 fights have made it at least to round 2.
Algeo boldly predicted this won’t even be the toughest fight of his career, seeming to reference his 2014 R2 submission loss to Shane Brugos and maybe his R4 (the record clearly says four) decision loss to Jared Gordon.
Ricardo Lamas
#19 Featherweight
17th UFC Fight (10-6)Ricardo "The Bully" Lamas last fought 14 months ago in a R1 KO loss to professional puncher Calvin Kattar. Lamos approached that fight with a leg kick heavy strategy but Kattar quickly caught on and was able to get out of range before turning off the lights late in R1.
With that loss, 38-year-old Lamas has now dropped 3 of his last 4 fights with his only win coming against fellow distinguished fighter Darren Elkins, who's currently navigating his own four fight skid. His previous win prior to the Elkins fight came against Jason Knight in 2017, who then also went on a 4 fight losing streak.
If you're looking for reasons to be bullish on "The Bully", he has topped the century mark in DraftKings points in both of his last two victories; scoring 103 points against Elkins in a 2018 R3 KO and 122 points against Knight in a 2017 R1 KO.
Lamas has fought (and lost to) some of the best fighters in the UFC in guys like Jose Aldo and Max Holloway and more recently Josh Emmet and Calvin Kattar. Now he's going up against UFC newcomer Bill Algeo so it will be interesting to see how much the veteran has left in the tank and if he can use his experience to fend off the 31-year-old Algeo. We think Algeo is a live dog in this one.
Alexa Grasso
#16 Strawweight
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Grasso is hoping to bounce back from a narrow decision loss against Carla Esparza, in which she was extremely close to finishing Esparza in R3 with both strikes and what looked like a locked in Armbar.
Now moving up from 115 lb to 125 lb for the first time, it has yet to be seen how the additional weight will help or hurt her. Grasso has alternated wins and losses over her last 6 fights but we don’t put a ton of stock into such patterns. Nine of her 14 pro fights have ended in decisions including 6 of her last 7.
Her 4 career KO's (all in R1) came on her 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th pro fights from 2012-2014. Her only fight since not to send in a decision was a 2018 submission loss.
Grasso landed a whopping 148 significant strikes in her last win, which came against Karolina Kowalkiewicz who allows 5.65 SSa/min on average. That 148 SS total almost doubled Grasso’s previous UFC high of 80 significant strikes landed in a fight. Other than that striking anomalie she hasn’t made much noise in terms of DFS scoring.
Ji Yeon Kim
#23 Flyweight
6th UFC fight (3-2)Kim comes into this fight with a 2” height advantage and a 6” reach advantage. She started her UFC career at 135 lb but quickly moved down to 125 lb in 2018 after losing her 2017 UFC debut. She’s gone 3-1 at 125 lb since the switch. Her initial 4 UFC fights all went to DEC (2-2), before getting her first UFC KO in the second round of her last fight.
Interestingly she has 0 takedown's, reversals, and advances in the UFC, so she’s 100% reliant on striking, knockdowns (she only has 1) and round/finishing bonuses for points. As she demonstrated in her last outing, she’s more than capable of scoring well on striking alone, as she dropped a 120 DraftKings points in a R2 KO. Keep in mind she got that KO with 1 second remaining in R2 so it couldn’t have worked out any better for her from a DFS perspective. Prior to that fight she hadn’t topped 73 significant strikes in any of her four decisions, and only landed 33 significant strikes in her last decision loss.
Sure, if this fight turns into a brawling dust ball then the winner should score well regardless of when it ends, or potentially even in a decision. However, those types of outcomes are few and far between and neither of these women do much else to prop up their box scores.
The more likely but still unlikely path to success is either a R1 finish (would be a first for either in the UFC) or a high-volume first and second round, combined with a mid to late R2 finish. These two only have one early loss between them and that was a R1 Rear-Naked Choke submission loss for Grasso in 2018. This is where we point out that Kim has three submission wins with two coming by Rear-Naked Choke, but all three came prior to joining the UFC.
Vegas is implying a 74% chance this fight ends in a decision, leading the entire slate by a wide margin. However, Kim’s basement pricing on both sites could make her an interesting GPP value play if she can outscore the fighters around her. We think this fight ends with a closer decision than what the odds imply.
Neil Magny
#12 Welterweight
23rd UFC Fight (16-6)Magny bounced back with consecutive decision wins after taking 16 months off following a R4 KO loss in November of 2018. He’s now won 4 of his last 5 fights with three of those wins coming in decisions.
In 30 pro fights Magny has only lost 1 of 14 decisions and that was back in 2013. He has been finished early six times though, two by KO and four by submission. With two of his last three losses coming in R1 (and 4 total R1 losses in his career), his opponents typically score pretty well when they do beat him. Magny comes into this fight with a 4” height advantage and a 6” reach advantage, which is pretty typical for him.
In his last 10 fights Magny has scored over 100 DraftKings points three times. The most recent was a 112 point R1 KO in 2018 against 6’2” Craig White (14-11) who was making his UFC debut at the time and has since lost his next three to take his UFC record 0-4.
Before that, in 2016 Magny racked up 139 DK pts in a R3 KO against then 36-year-old 5’9” Hector Lombard (34-10). Lombard looked like he was going to KO Magny in R1 but Magny was able to survive a vicious barrage of strikes to extend the fight. Magny ended up landing a ridiculous 148 strikes in the fights and it seemed like upwards of 100 of them came towards the end of R2 as he mounted Lombard and rained down strikes on his stationary face down opponent while looking at the ref incredulously, seemingly asking what he needed to do to get him to stop the fight. It was borderline criminal that the ref didn’t stop the fight sooner. It’s worth noting that Lombard has since lost his next 5 fights after losing to Magny.
Magny’s other 100+ point performance came against 5’9” Kevin Gastelum (15-6) in 2015 in a five round main event. Magny scored 102 DraftKings points but only landed 54 significant strikes doing most of his scoring through 6 takedowns and 5 advances. The only thing driving up scores to a useful level in that fight were the championship rounds. Gastelum has fared better than Magny’s other opponents after the loss but is still only 4-4 since the fight.
Magny was originally scheduled to fight Geoff Neal before Neal was forced to withdraw for health reasons. Lawler is stepping in on just a few weeks notice.
Robbie Lawler
#15 Welterweight
22nd UFC fight (13-8)Long time veteran Lawler has been fighting longer than possibly some of the people reading this have been alive. Going pro in 2001 and originally joining the UFC in 2002, Lawler went 4-3 in 7 fights in his first stint with the UFC. However, after losing 3 of his last 4 over that period he left the UFC in 2005, before rejoining it in 2013. He’s gone 9-5 in his second run with the UFC, winning 8 of his first 9 fights back.
Lawler is now coming off three straight losses, the last one being a 5 round decision against Colby Covington. He’s also lost 4 of his last 5 fights with his only win coming against Donald Cerrone. Four of his last 6 bouts have gone to decision, 3 of those being 5 rounders.
Lawler didn't fight in 2018 before coming back in early 2019 to take on Ben Askren. Lawler came out strong but Askren fought back and caught him in a Bulldog choke. Lawler’s arm flopped to the mat and he appeared to go out but as soon as the fight was stopped he popped up in protest so it may have been an unlucky early stoppage.
Despite his power puncher persona, he hasn't scored over 100 DK pts in his last 10 fights. At 38 years old, a year removed from his last fight, 3+ years since his last win, 5+ years away from his last KO win, and 7+ years forgotten from his last R1 KO win, it’s fair to wonder what we can reasonably expect from Lawler in this fight.
As a long time fan favorite, we should expect Lawler’s name to be clicked a few extra times as a cheap dog on a weak slate. We think Magny ends up winning by decision in this one. His biggest obstacle is simply surviving R1 and not letting Lawler land too many big shots. Lawler still has the power to end this one quickly if Magny isn’t careful.
Aleksandar Rakic
#9 Light Heavyweight
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Note: While this is the main event, it is only a 3 round fight.
Experiencing his first loss in his last 13 fights, Rakic will look to get back on track against a newly pieced together Anthony Smith. Rakic came into his last fight 4-0 in the UFC off back-to-back R1 KO’s, before losing a close split decision to Volkan Oezdemir. Volkan aggressively attacked Rakic’s lead leg to the point that it appeared he had a baseball under the skin just below his left knee.
After losing his pro debut back in 2011, Rakic went on to win his next 12 fights with eight of those ending in R1. While 11 of his career 14 fights have ended early, the three decisions he was involved in have all come since joining the UFC in his last five fights. For what it's worth, while Volkan was able to squeak out a decision win over Rakic, Anthony Smith beat Volkan with a R3 submission back in late 2018.
Anthony Smith
#5 Light Heavyweight
14th UFC Fight. (8-5)While Rakic is coming off a close three round split decision back in December, Smith is jumping back in the Octagon just three months after literally getting his teeth knocked out by Glover Teixeira in a five round bludgeoning that even by Bloodsport standards was allowed to go on too long.
With that loss to Teixeira, Smith has now dropped 2 of his last 3 fights, but in fairness the other was to Jon Jones. He’s still won four of his last 6 fights so this fight will be big for him. Nine of Smith’s last 10 fights have ended early with the only decision coming in the Jon Jones loss. He’s 7-3 over that period also suffering a loss to Thiago Santos back in 2018.
With both of these top ten ranked fighters coming off losses they should both be little desperate for a win in this 3 round main event. Smith has been the headliner in his last 5 outings so it’s nothing new for him, but it’s Rakic’s first time. We’re betting this fight ends early, it’s just a question of if Smith can pull the upset, which seems unlikely. We actually think it’s slightly closer than what the Vegas line suggests, but we’re still going with Rakic on this one. In the event Smith somehow does pull off the upset we think it’s still unlikely he scores highly in DFS.