The Sheet: UFC Fight Night, Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov

UFC Fight Night, Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov - Saturday, August 3rd

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #13

Sedriques Dumas

5th UFC Fight (2-2)

These two were originally scheduled to fight in June, but it got pushed back due to visa issues, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for one another.

Dumas will be looking to bounce back from a controversial R1 TKO loss to Nursulton Ruziboev, that arguably should have been overturned to a No Contest after it appeared that Ruziboev poked Sedriques Dumas in the eye to begin the finishing sequence. Ruziboev finished ahead 12-1 in significant strikes, while neither fighter attempted a takedown. Prior to that, Dumas won a decision over Abu Azaitar on the last Abu Dhabi card. Dumas was easily able to take Azaitar down in round one and control him for essentially the entire round, but then curiously never attempted a takedown in round two and only went for one failed attempt in round three. Considering how easily he got the first takedown, you really have to question that strategy, although ultimately he wasn’t made to pay for the poor decision making. That was Dumas’ second straight decision win, after he defeated a dejected Cody Brundage just before that in his first UFC victory. Although for the record, Brundage stepped in on short notice and had one of the worst performances you’ll see as he jumped guillotine so many times he should have been deducted a point. Nothing Dumas did in the fight was especially impressive and he more or less won by default. Prior to that, Dumas suffered his first career loss, when he got submitted in the second round of his UFC debut against Josh Fremd. Dumas was never able to get anything going in the fight, as Fremd had him hurt on the feet and was also able to take him down twice on two attempts and easily control him on the mat and eventually work his way to a guillotine finish midway through round two. Dumas had originally been scheduled to face Abu Azaitar there, but Azaitar dropped out and Fremd was announced as the replacement 16 days out. Leading up to that loss, Dumas won his first seven fights after turning pro in September 2020 and punched his ticket to the UFC with a 47 second first round submission win on DWCS. Just keep in mind, he hadn’t been facing much in the way of competition.

Now 9-2 as a pro, Dumas has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision victories. Four of his finishes occurred in the first round, with the last three of those ending in 90 seconds or less. His other two early wins both ended in round two. Just keep in mind, all of finishes came against a low level of competition before he joined the UFC. His first three opponents all had losing records and his next two each coming in just 1-0 in their respective careers. Then he took on a struggling undersized opponent, leading up to his win on DWCS. While he locked up a submission win on DWCS, four of his last five finishes have come by KO/TKO. He was finished in both of his losses, with a R1 TKO and a R2 submission.

Overall, Dumas has a Dutch Kickboxing striking style, and is also a BJJ purple belt who looks to mix in grappling, but looked terrible off his back in his debut. However, he showed some improvements in each of his next two fights, but you can tell he’s still super green and makes a lot of mistakes. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Dumas landed two of his four takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on six of their 10 attempts (40% defense). After landing a takedown on DWCS, he’s only landed one more in his four UFC fights, while his first three UFC opponents all got him down twice. He has dangerous kicks that he uses to attack his opponents at all levels, and has both head kick and leg kick KO/TKOs on his record. However, he’s yet to look very dangerous in the UFC and is averaging just 1.76 SSL/min and 2.14 SSA/min.

Denis Tiuliulin

6th UFC Fight (1-4)

Perhaps due to some sort of clerical error, Tiuliulin is still on the UFC roster, despite owning a 1-4 record, with all four of those losses ending early. He’s yet to make it past the second round in any of his five UFC fights, although got close a couple of times and his last fight ended in a late second round TKO loss against Christian Leroy Duncan, who was easily able to push Tiuliulin up against the cage and wear on his gas tank in round one, before opening up with things on the feet and putting him away. In fairness, Tiuliulin was stepping in on very short notice. Prior to that, Tiuliulin was finished in just 103 seconds via ground and pound by Gregory Rodrigues, who easily took Tiuliulin down less than a minute into the fight and quickly finished him. That came after Tiuliulin got choked out in the first round by JunYong Park, after Tiuliulin secured his only UFC victory in a second round TKO win over a struggling Jamie Pickett, who finished his UFC career off with five straight losses. Just before that, Tiuliulin made his UFC debut in 2022 against a dangerous wrestler in Aliaskhab Khizriev and got submitted in the second round. Tiuliulin’s last 10 fights all ended early (5-5), and only two of his last 18 matches made it to the judges, both of which ended in split decision losses.

Now 10-9 as a pro, Tiuliulin has nine wins by KO/TKO and one decision victory. His last nine wins all ended in knockouts, after he won a two-round decision in his 2013 pro debut. All nine of his knockouts came in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one and three in round two. He’s also been knocked out three times himself, submitted four times, and has two decision losses. He’s 0-3 in fights that have seen the third round with two split-decision losses and a submission defeat. Amazingly, Tiuliulin has competed anywhere from 155 to 205 lb in the past, but his last 13 fights have all been at 185 lb.

Overall, Tiuliulin has a background in Thai boxing and doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling. While he’s got solid power, he’s very one-dimensional, has bad cardio, and he gets taken down and controlled far too easily. Only 3 of 10 career wins came against opponents with winning records, so most of his victories were against very questionable competition. He’s really struggled against anyone with decent grappling and he’s been taken down by his opponents on 4 of 15 attempts (73.3% defense), and finished on the mat in all three UFC fights where he gave up a takedown. He’s attempted two takedowns of his own, but failed to land either of them. Tiuliulin does a good job of landing strikes when he can keep fights standing and averages 4.50 SSL/min and 6.15 SSA/min, but ultimately he’s nothing more than a journeyman that the UFC uses to build up other fighters.

Fight Prediction:

Dumas will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while also being eight years younger than the 36-year-old Tiuliulin.

This is an IQ test matchup for Dumas, who simply needs to look for takedowns to easily win. Tiuliulin is helpless off his back and also very hittable on the feet, as he averages 6.15 SSA/min (second most on the slate). While we’re not saying that Dumas can’t win a striking battle, it’s a free win on the ground and he would be wise to take it. However, we’ve seen him make head-scratching decisions in the past and he’s certainly not someone we’re comfortable trusting. That at least gives Tiuliulin a sliver of hope in landing the early knockout he needs to win, but we still think that Dumas will at least look to wrestle enough early to slow Tiuliulin down and get ahead on the scorecards. While it’s theoretically a great spot for Dumas to find his first UFC finish, he hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat since he joined the organization and we’ll still pick him to take Tiuliulin to a rare decision and get his hand raised with the judges.

Our favorite bet here is “Sedriques Dumas DEC” at +325.

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DFS Implications:

Dumas has yet to really impress so far in the UFC and while he was able to bounce back from getting submitted in his UFC debut with two straight decision wins, he only scored 79 and 64 DraftKings points respectively in those two wins. He showed zero fight IQ in the most recent of those, as he easily landed a takedown in round one and then abandoned his wrestling in the later rounds, which nearly cost him the match. He also averages just 1.76 SSL/min and has yet to land more than 34 significant strikes in any of his four UFC fights. He’s still very green in MMA, so he should be continuing to improve, but he’s certainly not a guy you can trust. Working in his favor, Tiuliulin has been finished in the first two rounds in four of his five UFC fights, has no ability to wrestle, and typically gasses out after 9-10 minutes. So if Dumas was ever going to end a fight early, this would definitely be the spot. We’re still not overly confident in his ability to get it done and at his higher price tag and lower striking volume he could finish Tiuliulin and still get priced out of the optimal lineup. However, we always want to be targeting Tiuliulin’s fights and three of the four fighters he lost to ended up in both the DraftKings and FanDuel winning lineup. The odds imply Dumas has a 67% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Tiuliulin is a KO or bust boxer who offers nothing in terms of grappling but has landed knockouts in his last nine career wins, with six of those ending in round one and three in round two. He’s been finished in under 10 minutes in all four of his UFC losses and it seems like they’re only keeping him around to build up other fighters. However, in his one UFC win Tiuliulin scored a ridiculous 124 DraftKings points, which came late in the second round against a terrible Jamie Pickett. Tiuliulin’s gas tank was on empty as the ref stopped the fight in that win and he looked like he was about to die of exhaustion if the fight wasn’t stopped. So throw terrible cardio on his pile of red flags and we’re only playing him for his early knockout potential. The odds imply Tiuliulin has a 33% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #12

Jai Herbert

8th UFC Fight (2-4-1)

Herbert is just over a year removed from an eventful decision loss to Fares Ziam, who outlanded Herbert 61-49 in significant strikes and 96-58 in total strikes. The strikers looked to clinch and grapple with one another more than anyone would have hoped for, with Ziam landing 1 of his 5 takedown attempts and Herbert going 0 for 6. That was Herbert’s third straight fight to end in a low-volume decision, after 14 of his first 15 pro fights ended early. Apparently getting violently knocked out by Ilia Topuria in 2022 took away Herbert’s desire to throw down in a brawl and he seems like a broken man since then. To Herbert’s credit, he dropped Topuria in the first round and is the only fighter to ever have Topuria in trouble, but keep in mind Topuria was fighting up a weight class and still came back to win with a highlight reel finish. Following that life-shortening knockout, Herbert bounced back with a decision win over Kyle Nelson, where the two combined for over nine minutes of combined control time and just 77 total significant strikes landed (41-36 in favor of Nelson). After dropping the first round, Herbert came back to win both of the later rounds to get his hand raised with the judges for just the second time in his career. Then in his next fight against Ludovit Klein, Herbert would have won another decision, but lost a point in the third round after landing a pair of low blows, which forced a draw. Herbert landed the first takedown of his UFC career in that match, while also getting taken down twice himself, and we once again saw a large amount of control time. That trend continued in his last fight. Prior to those three decisions, Herbert had eight straight fights end early (5-3) and had been finished in three of his first four UFC appearances. He got knocked out in the third round of his UFC debut against Francisco Trinaldo, and was then submitted in the second round by Renato Moicano. He bounced back with a first round knockout win over Khama Worthy, but then got knocked out by Topuria. The UFC took mercy on him following his brutal schedule and didn’t release him despite his 1-3 start, and you have to imagine he only agreed to the Topuria fight if it came with a new contract upfront, as that was his fourth fight in the UFC and presumably the last on his initial contract.

Now 12-5-1 as a pro, Herbert has nine wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. He was finished in four of his five career losses, with three knockouts and one submission, while he’s coming off his first decision defeat. All three of his UFC early losses came in the later rounds, with two ending in round two and one in round three. Herbert started his amateur career at 170 lb before dropping down to 155 lb in 2014 just before going pro, where he's stayed since. He has only been to the third round six times in his career, with four of those going the distance, but six of his seven UFC UFC fights made it out of round one. Nine of his 10 early wins occurred in the first two rounds.

Overall, Herbert is a good striker with fast hands, but is very prone to getting knocked out and he’s a liability on the mat. We’ve seen him slow things way down in his last few fights, but prior to that he had been a kill or be killed type of fighter. He only averages 2.69 SSL/min and 3.15 SSA/min, and he’s never landed more than 49 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorbed more than 61. In his seven UFC fights, he only landed one of his 10 takedown attempts (10% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 26 attempts (57.7% defense). Almost everyone who’s tried to take him down has been successful. Herbert has had some really bad knockout losses in the past and it’s hard to know where his head’s at these days. He’s still a talented striker, but his lack of durability and poor defensive wrestling make it risky for him to get too aggressive, and he seems aware of that as he’s dialed things back in his last few matches, simply looking to grind out boring decisions in the clinch. At this point, we’re ready to throw in the towel on Herbert and it looks like the exciting striker he once was is no more.

Rolando Bedoya

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

It’s been just under a year since we last saw Bedoya, when he lost a close decision to Song Kenan at 170 lb. Bedoya finished ahead 112-75 in significant strikes, but failed to land any of his four takedown attempts and also got knocked down in the third round to seal the loss in a fight that was even on the scorecards after 10 minutes. That was Bedoya’s second straight close decision loss since he joined the UFC, and resulted in him deciding to move back down to 155 lb, where he had competed previously in his career. Prior to losing to Kenan, Bedoya had an 11 fight winning streak snapped in a close high-volume split-decision loss in his recent UFC debut against a dangerous striker in Khaos Williams. Bedoya finished ahead in significant strikes 149-130, but failed to land either of his two takedown attempts. The first two rounds were razor close on the statsheet, with both fighters landing exactly 44 significant strikes in round one and Bedoya narrowly leading 40-39 in round two.Leading up to his debut, Bedoya hadn’t competed in 14 months following a pair of late round finishes in 2021 and 2022, after he won three straight decisions before that. His last eight fights all saw the second round, with six of his last seven making it to round three and five of those going the distance. Two of his last three finishes ended in second round submissions, and his only knockout since 2016 came in the third round of a 2021 fight.

Now 14-3 as a pro, Bedoya has four wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and seven decision victories. Two of his last three knockout wins ended in round three, and his last two submission victories ended in round two, while his other three finishes all ended in round one. He’s never been finished, with all three of his career losses going the distance. Bedoya competed at 155 lb until 2017 when he moved up to 170 lb, where he stayed until now as he’s moving back down to 155 lb. His last four wins at 155 lb all ended early. The first seven fights of his career were spent facing opponents with little to no pro experience, who came in with a combined 2-3 pro record, so take those early results with a grain of salt.

Overall, Bedoya is an aggressive fighter who marches forward and has shown a willingness to stand and trade with opponents. So it should come as no surprise that he trains at Chute Boxe, despite being from Peru. He’s been very hittable, averaging a slate-leading 6.83 SSA/min, but he’s still never been finished. Nevertheless, it’s only a matter of time before that catches up with him and he needs to improve his striking defense. He also lands a ton of strikes, averaging 8.70 SSL/min, which also leads the slate. However, he doesn’t throw with a ton of power, and he’s more so looking to wear on his opponents with volume. He’ll mix in takedowns attempts, but has yet to complete one in the UFC on six attempts, while no one has tried to take him down in the UFC. However, on the regional scene, he showed a solid takedown defense and decent top control when he was able to land takedowns. He’s still just 27 years old and should be improving all the time, so we’re curious to see how he looks at the new weight class and after a year away. He had plenty of weight to lose, and he probably always should have been fighting at 155 lb.

Fight Prediction:

Herbert will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while Bedoya is nine years younger than the 36-year-old Herbert.

This would have been a fun fight three years ago, but Herbert has looked like a shell of himself since his violent knockout loss to Topuria in early 2022 and he’s shown no desire to throw down in a scrap since then. Lately, Herbert has been content with working out of the clinch and grinding out close decisions in his last three fights (1-1-1) and the end appears near for the 36-year-old. However, whenever you have a fighter dropping down a weight class, the volatility meter goes up, and it remains to be seen how Bedoya will look at 155 lb in the UFC. With that said, Bedoya was always just an overweight Lightweight and he had plenty of weight to lose. So we’re not really worried about the cut negatively affecting him and we fully expect Paul Felder to say on the broadcast that, “Bedoya probably always should have been fighting at Lightweight.” It’s impossible to have any confidence in Herbert anymore, and clearly the betting market feels the same way, as Herbert opened the week as a -185 favorite, but was bet down to -125 by Friday. Herbert’s durability is bad and so is his ground game, leaving Bedoya with multiple ways to finish him. And even if Herbert can survive for three rounds, we expect Bedoya to be the busier fighter and to get his hand raised in a decision. It’s hard to say if Bedoya finds the finish, as Herbert has been essentially fighting not to lose lately, which will limit Bedoya’s opportunities to end things early. We lean slightly towards Bedoya winning a decision, but a knockout or submission are definitely in play as well.

Our favorite bet here is “Rolando Bedoya ML” at +115.

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DFS Implications:

Herbert has returned just one useful score in seven UFC appearances, which is when he knocked out a fragile Khama Worthy in the first round of a 2021 match and scored 110 DraftKings points. Keep in mind Worthy has been knocked out nine times in his career and is basically a training dummy at this point. Herbert only scored 65 points in his one other UFC win, which ended in an uneventful decision against Kyle Nelson. In addition to his suspect ceiling, Herbert was finished in three of his four UFC losses and lost a low-volume decision in his most recent defeat, after fighting to a draw where he still only would have scored 68 points had he won. He’s now 36 years old and has shown no desire to actually throw down in a fight since Ilia Topuria hijacked his soul in a brutal 2022 knockout. That makes it impossible to get excited about playing him anymore and he’s nothing more than an overpriced hail mary KO or bust option going against an opponent who’s never been finished. The only two reasons to consider playing Herbert are that it remains to be seen how Bedoya will look after moving down to 155 lb and after the line moved heavily in Bedoya’s favor, Herbert will be very low owned. That’s still not enough to get us excited about his outlook though. The odds imply Herbert has a 53% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Bedoya is coming off a pair of high-volume decision losses at 170 lb and will now be moving down to 155 lb for the first time since 2017. He returned DraftKings totals of 46 and 60 points respectively in his recent two losses, showing a decent scoring floor even without a finish, although not a huge ceiling. Part of the problem there was that he failed to land any of six takedown attempts and relied entirely on striking volume. Maybe he’ll find more wrestling success at the lighter weight class, and Herbert is a bad grappler with just a 57% takedown defense. Herbert also has a suspect chin, increasing the chances that Bedoya can land a rare knockout, which he only has one of since 2016. His striking output is encouraging, as he leads the slate at 8.70 SSL/min and 6.83 SSA/min, although we’ve never seen Herbert involved in a high-volume fight. The line has moved massively in Bedoya’s favor and after he opened the week as a +150 underdog, he was bet all the way down to +105 by Friday. That leaves him underpriced on DraftKings, which will annoyingly drive up his ownership, but makes him a great low-risk play. He’ll also have a high chance of ending up in tournament winning lineups, but you’ll have to make an effort to get different elsewhere in lineups that include him if you want to avoid large splits. The odds imply Bedoya has a 47% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #11

Viktoriia Dudakova

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Dudakova had been all set to take on Melissa Gatto on March 30th at 125 lb. Weigh-ins appeared to go smoothly and there were no indications that anything was wrong until just before walkouts on fight night when they announced Dudakova was pulling out due to an illness of some sort. That would have been her first fight at 125 lb, after she missed weight by 0.6 pounds for her last 115 lb match, where she’s spent her entire career. She’ll now be returning to 115 lb, where she won a close 29-28 decision over Jinh Yu Frey the last time she competed. Dudakova showed some improvements to her striking in that fight, but is clearly still very green overall. She failed to land any of her three takedown attempts in the fight, while she got taken down and controlled by Frey for nearly four minutes in round two. While Dudakova did eventually throw up some armbar attempts, she looked pretty lost off her back leading up to that. Prior to that decision win, Dudakova’s UFC debut ended much quicker due to a freak arm injury suffered by Istela Nunes in the opening minute of the match, resulting in a R1 TKO win for Dudakova. Eleven months prior to that, Dudakova won a wrestling-heavy decision on DWCS, after finishing her first five pro opponents. She wasn’t especially impressive in her DWCS fight, but was able to land four takedowns with over 10 minutes of control time. It looked like she hurt her knee late in the second round of the fight as she took a really bad step, but afterwards she claimed that she came into the fight with that injury. Regardless of when the injury happened, she had ACL surgery a couple of weeks afterwards, which resulted in the long layoff leading up to her debut.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Dudakova has two first round TKO wins, four submissions, and two decision victories. Three of her four submission wins occurred in the later rounds. Keep in mind, she had been facing really suspect competition before going on DWCS so all of her finishes should be taken with a grain of salt.

Overall, Dudakova is a 24-year-old Russian grappler who’s always looking to take opponents down and control them. She only turned pro in 2020 and is clearly still trying to put it all together, but you can see some improvements to her striking. We’ve often seen her get reversed looking for takedowns, where she’s the one who ends up on her back, and her wrestling has not been especially impressive. Dudakova’s background is actually in swimming opposed to martial arts, before she decided to take her career in a different direction. Between her DWCS fight and her two UFC fights, she landed 5 of her 12 takedown attempts (41.7% accuracy), while she got taken down twice on four attempts by her opponents (50% defense). We’re not really sold on Dudakova and she’s yet to impress us yet, but in fairness to her, she’s still just 25 years old and should be improving all the time.

Sam Hughes

9th UFC Fight (3-5)

Continuing to trade wins and losses, Hughes is coming off a unanimous 30-27 decision defeat against a really talented Yazmin Jauregui. Hughes traveled into enemy territory for that matchup as she flew into Mexico City to take on Jauregui at elevation. While Hughes was unable to land any of her six takedown attempts, she kept the striking close and Jauregui only finished ahead 94-83 in significant strikes and 97-88 in total strikes. That came 10 months after Hughes pulled off a big upset decision win over a debuting Jaqueline Amorim, who went on to finish her next two opponents. Hughes dug herself a hole early in the UFC as she dropped her first three fights, but she responded well by winning three of her last five. After she suffered a post R1 TKO loss in her UFC debut against a tough Tecia Pennington, six of Hughes last seven fights went the distance, with the one exception being a 2022 R3 ground and pound TKO win over a one-dimensional striker in Elise Reed.

Now 8-6 as a pro, Hughes has two wins by TKO, three submissions, and three decision victories. Three of her five early wins came against opponents who had never fought professionally before in Hughes first three pro fights. Her only KO/TKO loss came in her short notice UFC debut/execution against Tecia Torres, where the fight was stopped after round one when Hughes said she couldn’t see. The only other time Hughes has been finished was in a fourth round submission in an LFA title fight against Vanessa Demopoulos. Hughes’ other four losses all ended in decisions. Hughes turned pro in February 2019, initially fighting at 130 lb, but worked her way down to 115 lb by July 2020.

Overall, Hughes has shown definite improvements since she made her UFC debut, both with her striking and most notably with her wrestling. We’ve also seen her confidence grow and her ability to handle adversity as well. After failing to land a takedown on just three attempts in her first three UFC matches, she landed 7 on 20 attempts in her last five matches and now holds a 30% career takedown accuracy. On the other side of things, Hughes has been taken down 14 times on 33 opponent attempts (57.6% defense). While she averages 4.03 SSL/min and 4.51 SSA/min and has been outlanded in six of her eight UFC fights, she was able to keep the numbers close against a really talented striker in her last fight, which is encouraging for her chances when she faces less experienced strikers, like in this next matchup. Her best attribute may be her cardio and she tends to outlast her opponents and find increased success as fights go on.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’5”, but Dudakova will have a 3” height advantage and is seven years younger than the 32-year-old Hughes.

Dudakova has done nothing to impress us so far and is now on everyone’s shit list after dropping out mid-card just before she was set to walk for her last matchup. So not only is she not a good fighter, sometimes she’s not even a fighter. She has historically relied on her grappling to win, but did show some improvements to her striking in her last fight and is at an age (25) where she should be improving all the time. She’s also now gone through two camps since we last saw her compete, so that’s twice as much time to get better. While neither of these two are spectacular anywhere, Hughes looks to have better wrestling, striking, and cardio than Dudakova. We don’t see either of these two finishing the other, and we like Hughes to outwork her way to a decision win to pull off the upset.

Our favorite bet here is “Sam Hughes DEC” at +220.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.

DFS Implications:

Dudakova only scored 77 DraftKings points in her last decision win, after lucking into a 121 points score in her UFC debut that ended in a freak arm injury just 34 seconds in and garnered the Quick Win Bonus. Dudakova slightly missed weight for that decision victory and then moved up to 125 lb, where she was all set to face Melissa Gatto. However, Dudakova dropped out of the fight just before she was set to make the walk on fight night and will now be returning to 115 lb. She has a ton of holes in her game, but is still just 25 years old and should be improving all the time. Her striking looked somewhat better in her last fight, but her wrestling has been spotty and she looked pretty lost on her back. Now she’s facing a well rounded fighter in Hughes and Dudakova may have a tough time finding continued grappling success in this matchup. Therefore we don’t see her doing enough to score well in a decision and she’ll likely need a finish to be useful. The odds imply Dudakova has a 61% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

Hughes averaged 99 DraftKings points in her three UFC wins, despite all of those fights making it to the third round and two going the distance. However, all three of those opponents gassed out and Hughes was able to capitalize on that and find success on the mat. Those were also all very one-dimensional fighters and Hughes has lost all four of her UFC fights against more well rounded opponents. While she scored a slate-breaking 121 points in her lone UFC finish, she only returned scores of 83 and 92 DraftKings points in her two decision wins, so she hasn’t shown much of a ceiling without a finish. However, at her cheaper salary she’ll still be in the value play discussion even with a decision win, especially if we get a slate where not many underdogs win, which is very possible. As one of the few underdogs that we’re actually expecting to win, Hughes also looks like a great play in low-risk and smaller field contests. The odds imply Hughes has a 39% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #10

Guram Kutateladze

4th UFC Fight (1-2)

Kutateladze was originally set to face Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady here, but Al-Selwady dropped out and Vucenic was announced as the replacement just over a week out.

Kutateladze has been living a nightmare ever since he won a questionable split decision over Mateusz Gamrot in his 2020 UFC debut. Following that win, he pulled out of two fights in 2021, before returning in 2022 for a brutally tough matchup against the 23-1 Damir Ismagulov, who defeated Kutateladze in a split decision. Kutateladze then pulled out of two more fights in the first half of 2023, before returning in July 2023 as a massive -670 favorite against Elves Brener, despite the fact that Kutateladze was stepping in on short notice. Kutateladze nearly finished Brener at multiple points in the first two rounds, but slowed down as the fight went on and looked gassed in round three. Brener then punched him in the side of the neck and Kutateladze slowly collapsed to the mat, with the fight immediately being stopped. Had Kutateladze simply survived for another minute and a half he would have won a unanimous decision. Following his second straight loss, Kutateladze took a grappling match and got submitted in the first round and it’s been almost four years since he won a fight of any kind.

Now 12-4 as a pro, Kutateladze has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. He has one TKO loss (R3 2023), one submission defeat (R1 2015), and two decision losses. Four of his eight finishes have come in round one, two ended in round two, and the other two occurred in round three. Kutateladze made his pro debut at 170 lb, before quickly moving down to 155 lb.

Overall, Kutateladze is a dangerous Muay Thai striker with cast iron shins/elbows and solid defensive wrestling. He trains at Allstars in Sweden and is a longtime training partner of Khamzat Chimaev. In Kutateladze’s three UFC fights, he landed two of his 11 takedown attempts (18.2% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 29 attempts (75.9% defense). He’s a black belt in Japanese jiu-jitsu, but only has one career submission win and that came in his 2010 pro debut. Sitting on a 1-2 UFC record, Kutateladze is likely fighting for his job here and we expect him to be 100% focussed on winning by any means necessary.

Jordan Vucenic

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his short notice UFC debut, Vucenic is coming off four straight submission wins over a series of suspect opponents in the Cage Warriors promotion. The last of those came against a 35-year-old 12-8 journeyman just two weeks ago in a 159 lb Catchweight match, where Vucenic finished things with a guillotine in just 82 seconds and took no damage. Prior to that, he defeated a 10-4 one-dimensional striker with a second round kimura, after locking up a pair of second round rear-naked chokes against two undersized strikers who each only weighed in at 143 lb. Leading up to his string of submission wins, Vucenic lost a five-round decision for the Cage Warriors Featherweight belt against Paul Hughes, who beat Vucenic up so badly that one judge scored the fight 50-43. Vucenic originally won the belt in a dubious split decision against Morgan Charriere that we thought Charriere clearly won, but he is the king of blowing fights in split decisions. Vucenic then defended the belt once with a submission win before losing it to Hughes.

Now 13-2 as a pro, Vucenic has two KO/TKO wins, six submissions, and five decision victories. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses going the distance. He has two first round finishes, five in round two, and one in round three. Vucenic has spent the vast majority of his career at 145 lb, but did compete once at 155 lb, and has several Catchweight matches ranging from 140 lb to 159 lb. However, by all indications he’s a 145 lb fighter.

Overall, Vucenic is a decently well-rounded fighter who’s been looking to grapple a ton lately in a series of favorable matchups. He has quick striking, but hasn’t looked like a huge knockout threat and his only two KO/TKO wins came in his fourth and fifth pro fights back in 2019. He’s offensively minded and neither his striking defense nor his defensive wrestling have been very impressive and he was nearly finished at multiple points in his loss to Paul Hughes. To Vucenic’s credit, he seems to have a lot of heart and won’t quit on himself in fights, or else he would not have survived to see the scorecards against Hughes. He’s also still only 28 years old and should be improving all the time, but he’s being put in one of the toughest spots you could ask for in a debut as he steps in against a killer on short notice, up a weight class, and just two weeks after he last competed. The one thing he has going for him is that his last fight was a 159 lb Catchweight where he took no damage and he showed up at 157.8 lb, so he likely didn’t cut much weight, as he normally fights at 145 lb.

Fight Prediction:

Kutateladze will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 72” reach. Vucenic is four years younger than the 32-year-old Kutateladze.

This is the best spot Kutateladze has been in since joining the UFC and it’s hard to see him botching this opportunity. Vucenic is stepping into his UFC debut on just eight days’ notice and normally competes at 145 lb, but this will be at Kutateladze’s usual weight class of 155 lb. Kutateladze has a significant striking advantage and the defensive wrestling skills to keep the fight standing. The one advantage that Vucenic may have is cardio, although that could be lessened given the circumstances of him coming in on short notice. And while Kutateladze gassed out in his last fight, he notably accepted that matchup on short notice, making it more forgivable. Vucenic seems to cut fairly easily and Kutateladze throws nasty slicing elbows that could force a doctor stoppage. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Kutateladze take a more measured approach, focussed more on winning than finishing, as his job seems to be on the line. And considering that Vucenic has never been finished, it won’t be surprising if Kutateladze wins by decision. However, there’s still a good chance he can land an early knockout and regardless of how he gets it done, we fully expect Kutateladze to win this fight handedly and would be surprised if it was close.

Our favorite bet here is “Guram Kutateladze ML” at -215.

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DFS Implications:

Kutateladze is a very dangerous striker with a history of landing early knockouts and he also has solid defensive wrestling. He couldn’t have asked for two tougher opponents in his first two UFC fights, and then stepped into his last fight on short notice and was dominating before he gassed out in round three and was finished. So while he’s only 1-2 in the UFC, his record is hardly indicative of his talent. The UFC realizes that and is giving him every possible opportunity to save his job with a win here against a short notice debuting opponent who normally competes at 145 lb. Kutateladze would have to cut a leg off to make 145 lb and actually started his career at 170 lb. While Vucenic has never been finished, he’s also never faced anyone as dangerous as Kutateladze, and Vucenic’s defenses aren’t that impressive. Kutateladze has a really good shot at getting him out of there early, or at least dominating him for three rounds. The one real concern with Kutateladze is his cardio after he gassed out in his last fight, but in fairness to him, he stepped into that matchup on short notice. It’s also been a year since he last fought, so it’s possible he comes in with some ring rust, but we still really like his upside. And considering he failed to top 56 DraftKings in any of his three UFC fights, he could end up lower owned than he should be. That just adds to his tournament appeal and he looks like a great play in all contest types and formats. The odds imply Kutateladze has a 66% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Vucenic couldn’t ask for a much tougher spot to be making his UFC debut as he takes on a killer in Kutateladze. Vucenic is stepping in on eight days’ notice, up a weight class, after competing just two weeks ago (also up a weight class). He’s spent almost his entire career at 145 lb, and even there a lot of his recent opponents were undersized. He’s never seen anything like Kutateladze and this is a massive step up in competition for Vucenic. While Vucenic is decently well rounded and has never been finished, his defense is lacking and we’ve seen him get steamrolled in the past. Kutateladze has a history of landing first round knockouts and Vucenic has a non-existent scoring floor in this fight. Vucenic has shown the ability to go five rounds at multiple points, while Kutateladze gassed out in the back half of his last three-round fight, which is probably the one way that Vucenic could pull off the upset, but we don’t see it happening. We’ll have more interest in playing Vucenic in his next fight, but we’re passing on him here in what looks like a death sentence. The odds imply Vucenic has a 34% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #9

Shamil Gaziev

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Coming off his first career loss, Gaziev predictably gassed out against Jairzinho Rozenstruik after the first round in a March main event. Rozenstruik patiently picked Gaziev apart instead of pushing for a finish and eventually Gaziev simply quit after the fourth round, claiming he couldn’t see. Rozenstruik finished ahead 127-22 in significant strikes and 140-27 in total strikes, while Gaziev only landed one of his seven takedown attempts, with that lone takedown coming in round one. Just before being thrust into that headlining spot, Gaziev landed an early second round TKO in his UFC debut against Martin Buday, in a fight that Gaziev closed as a slight underdog, after the line moved in Gaziev’s favor. Buday looked terrible in the fight and was overwhelmed by the pressure of Gaziev, who split Buday open in the first round pretty badly, before forcing a standing TKO in the opening minute of round two as Buday simply shelled up. Gaziev finished ahead 49-8 in significant strikes, while Buday went 0 for 2 on his takedown attempts. Just three months prior to that, Gaziev secured a first round submission win on DWCS. He landed a quick knockdown in the opening seconds of that fight, but then had his back taken on the mat before reversing the position and working his way to a rear naked choke midway through the first round. Despite that fight ending so quickly, Gaziev was exhausted in his post fight interview, just like in his UFC debut. Before going on DWCS, Gaziev landed a first round knockout against former UFC fighter Darko Stosic, a name that seemingly adds some credibility to Gaziev’s record, at least until you remember that Stosic went 1-3 in the UFC at LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT, and is severely undersized when competing at Heavyweight. Looking back one fight further, Gaziev landed another knockout in the opening minute of round two, something he’s done three times in his career. Only twice has he been in a fight that made it past the six minute mark, which were his recent post R4 TKO loss and a 2022 split decision win where Gaziev started strong before nearly dying of exhaustion and limping his way to the judges through desperation lay and pray. He could barely stand up as they read the scorecards in that fight and nearly got submitted via kimura in the second round.

Now 12-1 as a pro, Gaziev has eight KO/TKO wins, three submissions, and one decision victory. He has five first round knockouts and three in the opening minute of round two. All three of his submission wins ended in first round rear naked chokes. He only turned in late 2020 and has fought a lot of dubious competition, so take his record with a grain of salt.

Overall, Gaziev was born in Dagestan, where he took the road less traveled and became part of the national volleyball team, before being recruited to MMA by Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, father of Khabib. Gaziev started training in MMA when he was 15 years old and stuck with it until he was 19, but then stepped away from the sport for the next decade, before returning to it when he was 29 and then turned pro a year later in late 2020. He’s spent a little bit of time training with Ciryl Gane, although you wouldn’t guess it by watching him fight. Gaziev has some of the worst cardio you’ll ever see and begins to fade after the opening minutes of fights. By the middle of the second round he becomes essentially useless. While he does have good power in his hands and okay wrestling, he’ll never make it very far in the UFC unless he improves his cardio and he’ll continue to be a sitting duck in the back half of fights when he’s unable to land an early finish.

Don'Tale Mayes

10th UFC Fight (4-4, NC)

Mayes is coming off a close decision win over Caio Machado, who actually outlanded Mayes 76-67 in significant strikes, but Mayes landed a knockdown in the first round. Neither fighter attempted a takedown in the match. Prior to that, Mayes lost a similarly low-volume decision when he went into enemy territory in Brazil and was defeated by Rodrigo Nascimento, who came out hot and looked somewhat close to finishing Mayes early on. However, Nascimento slowed down in the back half of the fight and Mayes actually finished ahead 79-70 in significant strikes, while no one landed any of their takedown attempts. That came after Mayes notched his only other win since 2021 in a low-volume second round TKO over a 44-year-old Andrei Arlovski, which followed a decision loss to Augusto Sakai, who was coming off four straight knockout losses and was cut following the boring win. Looking back one fight further, Mayes lost a split-decision to a low-level short notice replacement who was making his UFC debut—although the defeat was later overturned to a No Contest when Hamdy Abdelwahab tested positive for PEDs. Hamdy was able to knock Mayes down in the first round, take him down three times, and control him for six and a half minutes while also outlanding him 58-47 in significant strikes. It was a terrible showing by Mayes, who was coming off his first early win in the UFC in a third round TKO victory over another low-level Heavyweight in Josh Parisian. Maye’s only other UFC victory came in a decision against another terrible opponent in Roque Martinez, after Mayes was submitted in each of his first two UFC fights. Before being signed to the UFC, Mayes was a regular on DWCS as he made appearances in 2017, 2018 and 2019. After getting knocked out in the third round of his first fight on the show, he notched a pair of knockout victories in his next two appearances.

Now 11-6 as a pro, Mayes has six wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, has two official decision losses, and one DQ loss. However, he also lost another decision before it was later overturned due to a failed drug test and if you include that, Mayes lost three of the last four decisions he’s been to. He’s seen the second round in all nine of his UFC fights, with seven of those making it to round three, and five going the distance. And looking back even further, only one of Mayes’ last 15 fights ended in round one, which was his last knockout win on DWCS.

Overall, Mayes is a big 6’6” Heavyweight who appears athletically gifted but not very talented when it comes to MMA. He showed improvements to his wrestling against Josh Parisian in 2021, but that probably had more to do with who he was facing than anything else and Parisian is terrible off his back (and on his feet). Between Mayes’ nine UFC fights and his three DWCS appearances, he landed 7 takedowns on 16 attempts (43.8% accuracy), but the vast majority of that success came against Parisian, who Mayes took down six times on eight attempts. Mayes landed just one takedown on eight attempts against the other 11 opponents. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 13 of their 33 attempts (60.6% defense). Mayes only averages 3.69 SSL/min and has never landed more than 79 significant strikes in a UFC fight, although he did land 98 in a late second round knockout win on DWCS in 2018. It’s somewhat surprising that Mayes has even stuck around as long as he has in the UFC, but that just shows how thin the organization is at Heavyweight.

Fight Prediction:

Mayes is listed as having a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, although Gaziev could be taller than they say he is. Mayes is also two years younger than the 34-year-old Gaziev.

We’re pretty low on both of these guys and we’ve been aggressively fading Gaziev since he joined the UFC. That paid off handsomely in his recent loss, but now he’s getting one of the biggest step downs in competition we’ve ever seen as he goes from headlining a card against Jairzinho Rozenstruik to fighting on the prelims against Don'Tale Mayes. It will be interesting to see if Gaziev changes his approach any after gassing out in his last fight, and we sometimes see fighters come in much more tentatively following a cardio collapse. However, he’s such a gasser to the core that we don’t think there’s anything he can do to prevent it. He could stand still for five minutes and he’d probably look tired afterwards. So he’ll probably continue his normal routine of looking for a first round finish and then gassing out in round two if he’s unable to find one. That will make things very interesting down the stretch if we get that far, as it opens up the possibility for Mayes to land a late finish, or for this to end in a close decision. Mayes isn’t much of a finisher, making a decision all the more likely. There’s definitely a world where Mayes loses a 10-8 first round if he gets taken down and then wins each of the later rounds, which would result in a draw, but that would require a lot of things to go right. Gaziev should have the crowd behind him and if he does slow down his energy expenditure we could see him doing enough to win the first two rounds and then limping to a close decision. Ultimately, we see this ending in one of three ways—a Gaziev early finish, a Mayes late finish, or a close decision, and we lean towards the latter of those options. Give us Gaziev by split decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Gaziev/Mayes FGTD” at +170.

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DFS Implications:

Gaziev predictably gassed out in his last fight and eventually quit in a post R4 TKO stoppage against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. That just confirmed everything we’ve been saying since before he joined the UFC about his terrible cardio. However, he was at least able to survive for 20 minutes and now he gets a massive step down in competition in a three-round fight. However, that only lowers his chances of being finished after he gasses out and doesn’t do much for his scoring potential otherwise. He still looks reliant on landing a first round finish to return value at his high price tag and he doesn’t have the gas tank to find success in a longer fight. His output in the later rounds of his last fight read like a baseball box score, as he landed seven significant strikes in round two, five in round three, and just two in round four. He also failed to land any of his four takedown attempts in the later rounds and this guy seriously has some of the worst cardio we have ever seen. That makes him a pretty straightforward R1 finish or bust play, and he “only” scored 96 DraftKings points in an early second round finish in his UFC debut. We’re not saying it’s impossible for him to finish Mayes in round two, but he’ll be rapidly declining at that point and it’s asking a lot from him to both land a second round finish and do enough to score well in the process. It’s not the worst buy-low spot on Gaziev after his recent collapse, but there’s a good chance this fight runs long according to the odds and it’s really hard to see him scoring well in that scenario. The odds imply Gaziev has a 71% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.

Mayes has only topped 91 DraftKings points once in nine UFC appearances, which was when he randomly turned into a wrestler against a terrible Josh Parisian and scored 124 points in a third round TKO. Mayes was able to land six takedowns in that fight, but only has one other takedown in the rest of his UFC career. Now he’s facing a Dagestani wrestler and the only way we see Mayes landing takedowns in this fight is if it gets into the later rounds and Gaziev completely gasses out, which he always does. However, even then Mayes could be reluctant to try and get the fight to the mat, and he looks reliant on landing a finish to score well. Working in his favor, Gaziev has some of the worst cardio we’ve ever seen and will turn into a pumpkin in the back half of this fight. That will provide Mayes with a teed up opportunity to land a late finish if he can simply survive the opening round. The only problem is that Mayes is terrible and could either get finisher early or completely fail to capitalize late and allow the fight to hit the scorecards, which is kind of what we’re expecting. Nevertheless, you always want to have some level of exposure with fighters who are facing known gassers. The odds imply Mayes has a 29% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #8

Kaue Fernandes

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Fernandes will be looking to bounce back from a low-volume, wrestling-heavy, split-decision decision loss in his UFC debut against Marc Diakiese. Most of the fight was spent with Fernandes on his back, as Diakiese took him three times and controlled him for over eight and a half minutes, while Fernandes finished ahead just 23-13 in significant strikes. That fight took place in front of Fernandes’s home Brazilian crowd, which may have played a factor in why one judge scored the fight for him, despite clearly losing. Prior to that, Fernandes landed back-to-back quick knockout wins in the LFA. The most recent of those ended in just 45 seconds against an opponent who’s been finished in five of his six pro losses. The other ended in 128 seconds against an opponent who only had six pro fights. Leading up to those two early wins, Fernandes lost a decision where he completely gassed out in the later rounds. Fernandes turned pro all the way back in 2014, but only has 10 pro fights to his name and never fought more than once in a calendar year on the regional scene.

Now 8-2 as a pro, Fernandes has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. All four of his knockout wins ended in under 90 seconds, while both of his submission wins came via armbar, with one in just 22 seconds in his 2014 pro debut and the other in the first half of round two. He’s never been finished himself and both of his career losses went the distance. Fernandes started his career at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in 2019.

Overall, Fernandes is decently well rounded as he has striking experience and is also a BJJ black belt. He’s got a very wide stance that leaves his skinny lead leg exposed and he likes to throw a lot of kicks. He’s shown really suspect cardio in the past, and we’ve seen him completely gas out before. His takedown defense hasn’t looked great, and he got taken down three times on eight attempts (62.5% defense) in his recent UFC debut, while landing his only attempt. He is dangerous off his back and has an active guard, where he likes to look for armbars. He trains at a good gym in Nova Uniao and he looks like Steve Erceg’s evil twin when he grows his goatee out. Fernandes’ biggest two weaknesses appear to be his defensive wrestling and his cardio, but he looks like a dangerous finisher and can excel in matchups where he doesn’t get controlled on his back or boat raced in a cardio battle. After losing in a really tough stylistic matchup in his UFC debut, he’ll get a big step down in competition here.

Mohammad Yahya

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Yahya is coming off a decision loss in his UFC debut against Trevor Peek, which is the only time Peek has ever won a decision in three trips to the judges. That fight took place in front of Yahya’s home crowd in Abu Dhabi, and Peek still won every round of the fight. While Peek is known for his brawling and not for his ground game, he was still able to take Yahya down four times on seven attempts, after only landing one total takedown in his three previous fights combined. Yahya landed his only takedown attempt in the fight and had a submission attempt in the first round. Peek finished ahead 61-43 in significant strikes and 83-47 in total strikes. Yahya’s previous two fights were also both in the Etihad Arena, where his debut and this upcoming fight will also be, so he should at least be comfortable in the environment. His last three matches before making his debut were all scheduled to go five rounds in UAE Warriors Lightweight Championship fights, with the last two of those making it to round five, and the most recent ending in a close decision, that he arguably could have lost. His fight before that was against a struggling short notice replacement who missed weight by two pounds, yet still gave Yahya some trouble on the feet early on. So Yahya hasn’t been especially impressive, but did win five straight leading up to his recent loss.

Now 12-4 as a pro, Yahya has seven wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been finished in three of his four losses, with one knockout and two submissions. All three of those defeats came in the first two rounds, with the last two ending in submissions in the final 30 seconds of round two. He’s coming off the first decision loss of his career. While Yahya only made it to the judges in four of his 16 pro fights, all four of those decisions came in his last six fights and his last eight matches all made it out of the first round. He’s also fought a lot of questionable competition, so take his record with a big grain of salt.

Overall, Yahya is somewhat well-rounded but only in the sense that he’s bad everywhere. He’ll mix in takedown attempts, but hasn’t impressed us with his wrestling and doesn't defend takedowns well. And while he has okay power with his striking, he doesn’t throw a ton of volume and has looked prone to being dropped. Yahya will get lazy with his hands at times, keeping them too low to defend himself, which is something he needs to improve. We’ve also seen him slow down at times, and despite his last two fights on the regional scene making it to the third round, his cardio hasn’t been that impressive. So there are little to no redeeming qualities with Yahya and now he’ll face a step up in competition, as he prepares to fight/lose in front of his home crowd once again.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’9” with a 73” reach.

This looks like a great get-right spot for Fernandes, as he faces a major step down in competition. Fernandes looks very dangerous, especially in the opening round and a half of fights, while Yahya looks terrible and has been prone to being knocked down and finished. Neither guy has very good cardio, so things could get super sloppy if it hits the third round, but we like Fernandes’ chances of finishing Yahya in under a round and a half. He most likely gets it done in a first round knockout, but a submission is also possible and he likes to go for armbars on the mat.

Our favorite bet here is “Kaue Fernandes R1/2” at +105.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.

DFS Implications:

Fernandes is coming off a wrestling-heavy decision loss in his UFC debut, where he didn’t have much of a chance to really show off what he can do and instead it was his deficiencies that were on full display, as he continues to struggle with his defensive wrestling and his cardio late in fights. However, that was fully expected in that matchup against Diakiese and he gets a much more favorable spot here. Yahya is a low-level fighter who’s been finished in three of his four pro losses and has been very prone to getting both knocked down and taken down. That leaves Fernandes with multiple ways to finish this fight and while his last three finishes all ended by knockout in 88 seconds or less, he’s also a BJJ black belt who will look for submissions on the mat. According to the odds, he has the highest chance of landing a finish of any fighter on the card and is also the most likely to get it done in round one. So it’s hard not to love his upside, but his suspect cardio does leave him reliant on ending fights early and he’s not someone we can count on scoring well in a decision. The odds imply Fernandes has a 75% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.

Yahya looked absolutely terrible in his recent UFC debut, which took place in the same arena as this next card, in front of Yahya’s home Abu Dhabi crowd. He scored just 24 DraftKings points in a decision loss to Trevor Peek, who generally makes for higher scoring fights. Even going back to his regional tape, nothing has stood out as impressive with Yahya and his defensive wrestling and striking have both been poor, while he operates at a sluggish pace. He gets knocked down and taken down routinely and has been finished in three of his four career losses. Seemingly the only reason he’s in the UFC is because they wanted some local “talent” for the last Abu Dhabi card and he was the best of the worst that they had to offer, as the only Emirate in the UFC. The only two things he has going for him is that Fernandes tends to gas out late in fights and we generally see fighters look better in their second UFC appearance than their first. With that said, we fully expect Yahya to get finished here and even in a decision win he’s given us no indication that he can score well. The odds imply Yahya has a 25% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #7

Azamat Murzakanov

4th UFC Fight (3-0)

Murzakanov is 17 months removed from a decision win over Dustin Jacoby. While we didn’t see a ton of strikes landed (67-64), there was a lot of damage inflicted by Murzakanov. He had Jacoby hurt at multiple points in the first two rounds, although Jacoby did come back to win the third round. Both fighters landed one takedown, Murzakanov on five attempts and Jacoby on six. That’s the first time that Murzakanov has required the judges in the UFC, after he landed a pair of third round knockouts in his first two UFC fights. The first of those came in Murzakanov’s March 2022 UFC debut against Tafon Nchukwi, with the most recent coming against Devin Clark. Prior to the pair of late finishes, Murzakanov had never put anyone away after the first round, and had only even seen the second round twice in his career. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a first round TKO win on DWCS in August 2021, after taking 2020 and 2018 off. Murzakanov had originally been scheduled to make his UFC debut all the way back in 2017 but withdrew from the fight citing an injury and was then hit with a 2-year USADA suspension. Murzakanov also notably has a 2016 R1 KO win over Andre Muniz, who has since dropped down to 185 lb.

Now 13-0 as a pro, Murzakanov has nine KO/TKO wins, one submission, and three decision victories. Eight of his 10 finishes came in round one, while his most recent two occurred early in round three. His first two decision wins came in two-round rights, although his most recent of those two-round decisions is incorrectly listed as being a three-round fight on multiple different MMA stat sites. He’s coming off the first three-round decision win of his career and after his first 10 pro fights all ended in 10 minutes or less, his last three all made it to the third round.

Overall, Murzakanov is a Master of Sport in Hand to Hand Combat and a former SWAT team member. He’s got heavy hands and will also mix in takedown attempts, although has struggled to complete many. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed just two of his 12 attempts (16.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down once on six attempts (83.3% defense). He relies more on power than volume, averaging 4.57 SSL/min and 3.12 SSA/min, and he’s yet to land more than 79 significant strikes in a UFC fight. However, he knocked down each of his last four opponents, finishing three of them. However, he is starting to get up there in age at 35 years old and he’s looked 40 since he claimed he was 30 so who knows if he’s even older than is listed. Considering he’s coming off a long layoff, we’re curious to see how he looks on the scale on Friday.

Alonzo Menifield

14th UFC Fight (8-4-1)

Menifield is just 12 weeks removed from a quick 12 second knockout loss to Carlos Ulberg, where Menifield came charging in to start the fight and was immediately made to pay for his momentary lapse of sanity. The fight ended before it ever got started, which was especially strange since Menifield had been on a five fight unbeaten streak and seemed to be evolving as a fighter. Just before that loss he won an impressive decision over a talented kickboxer in Dustin Jacoby. While Jacoby finished ahead 93-68 in significant strikes, Menifield had all of the show stealing moments in the fight, hurting Jacoby at multiple points and securing both a knockdown and a takedown in the match. Menifield lost the first round but then won each of the later rounds on all three scorecards. Menifield’s previous two fights were both against Jimmy Crute and after their first matchup ended in a draw, the two decided to immediately run it back. In the far less eventful rematch, the first round played out largely in the clinch, before Menifield locked up a guillotine as Crute shot for a takedown in round two. Menifield was nearly able to knock Crute out in their first fight, but he slowed down after the first round and went into survival mode late in the fight. Prior to his two fights against Crute, Menifield notched a pair of first round knockouts against a washed up Misha Cirkunov and a fraudulent Askar Mozharov, after losing a close/questionable decision to William Knight.

Now 15-4-1 as a pro, Menifield has 10 KO/TKO wins, three submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice (R1 2024 & R2 2020), with his other two losses both going the distance. Ten of his 13 early wins occurred in round one, with the other three ending in the first half of round two. All five of the decisions he’s been to in his career have come in his last 11 fights, after his first nine pro matches all ended early.

Overall, Menifield is a former college, CFL, and Arena League football player who came into the UFC as a one-dimensional power puncher with cardio concerns, but has been trying to mix in a little more wrestling lately and fighting more methodically. Between his 13 UFC fights and his two DWCS appearances, Menifield landed 5 of his 15 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 44 attempts (75% defense). While Menifield failed to land a takedown in either of his DWCS fights or his first four UFC matches, he landed five in his last nine fights and he was successful in landing a takedown in four of the last five fights where he attempted one. Rarely do we see big striking totals in his fights, as Menifield only averages 3.92 SSL/min and 3.57 SSA/min. Only once in his career has he landed more than 68 or absorbed more than 79 significant strikes in a fight. However, when he does land, he generally makes it count. It will be interesting to see how he responds to being knocked out less than three months ago and it’s somewhat surprising to see him make this quick of a turnaround.

Fight Prediction:

Menifield will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.

Both of these two are powerful strikers who typically rely on knockouts to end fights early. While Menifield has started to mix in a little more wrestling, it’s still rare to see many takedowns landed in either of their fights and we’re accustomed to seeing lower volume high-stakes striking battles whenever either of these two compete. They’ve both been able to land knockouts in favorable matchups, but we’ve yet to see Menifield knockout anyone with a decent chin in the UFC. His four knockout wins came against Misha Cirkunov, Askar Mozharov, Paul Craig, and Vinicius Moreira. That’s not very encouraging for his chances of handing Murzakanov the first loss of his career, although it has been over a year since Murzakanov last competed and he’s starting to get up there in age. Murzakanov’s takedown defense has also been pretty solid, in the rare times it’s been tested. He also lands more and absorbs fewer strikes than Menifield on average, so there aren’t many selling points on Menifield, who’s fresh off a knockout loss. So we’ll take Murzakanov here, it’s just a matter of whether he can knock Menifield out or win a decision. Neither of these two have great cardio, but Murzakanov somehow landed a pair of third round knockouts in his two UFC finishes, which seems kind of flukey considering the first eight finishes of his career all ended in round one. We could see Menifield come in a little more conservatively after he got immediately starched in his last outing, which when combined with the larger Octagon and late local start time could increase the chances of this going the distance. However there’s still a good chance that Murzakanov connects on something cleanly and gets back to his knockout ways. Either way, Murzakanov will be the pick.

Our favorite bet here is “Azamat Murzakanov KO or DEC” at -180.

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DFS Implications:

Murzakanov is coming off a rare decision win where he only scored 73 DraftKings points, despite landing both a knockdown and a takedown. He looked close to finding a finish in the first two rounds against a previously durable Dustin Jacoby, but then slowed down some late and lost the third round. That followed a pair of third round knockout victories for Murzakanov in his first two UFC appearances, where he returned DraftKings scores of 96 and 72 points. So we’ve yet to see him really score well and he appears entirely reliant on landing well timed knockouts to return value. He’s yet to land more than a single takedown or more than 79 significant strikes in a UFC fight and is now going against an opponent who holds a stout 75% takedown defense and only averages 3.57 SSA/min. While we did just see Menifield get knocked out less than three months ago, that’s only the second early loss of his career and could cause him to fight a little more cautiously here. That finish will also be fresh on everyones’ mind and could drive Murzakanov’s ownership up a little. At his higher salary, he’ll need a well-timed knockout to return value and it would be very surprising to see him score well in a decision. The odds imply Murzakanov has a 64% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Menifield has averaged 96 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins, with five of those ending in the first round. He’s yet to score well in fights that made it past round one, returning just 82 points in a second round submission and only 81 and 74 points respectively in his two decision victories. While he has been looking to wrestle a little more in recent years, Murzakanov’s 83% takedown defense has held up well so far, although it also hasn’t been tested much. That does at least create another potential way for Menifield to win the fight, and at his cheap price tag he could still serve as a value play even without a huge score. However, he’s fresh off a knockout loss and is facing another dangerous finisher here, so his floor cannot be trusted. The odds imply Menifield has a 36% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #6

Joel Alvarez

8th UFC Fight (5-2)

Alvarez is just over a year removed from a second round submission win over Marc Diakiese in a fight where Alvarez doubled Diakiese up in striking, finishing ahead 42-20 in significant strikes and 64-29 in total strikes. Diakiese had no good options in that fight, as he was outgunned on the feet and was destined to get submitted if he opted to grapple, which is what happened in the second round after Diakiese got outstruck in round one. Alvarez’s second most recent fight was two and a half years ago in February 2022, where he suffered a R2 ground and pound TKO loss to Arman Tsarukyan, who was able to take Alvarez down and dominate him on the mat while also remaining out of danger against the dangerous guard player. Alvarez’s long layoffs have been the result of him pulling out and he’s withdrawn from three booked matchups since the start of 2023. The loss to Tsarukyan snapped a four fight winning streak, with all four of those wins ending in under a round and a half, including three in round one. Alvarez’s only other loss came in a decision in his 2019 UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov.

Now 20-3 as a pro, Alvarez has three KO/TKO wins and 17 submission victories. Eighteen of his 20 finishes came in under a round and a half, with 13 of those ending in round one. The only times he ever finished anybody beyond the midway point in round two was his recent late second round submission win and a 2015 R3 guillotine in his fifth pro match. He’s been knocked out twice himself and lost the only decision he’s ever been to.

Overall, Alvarez is a dangerous finisher and also kind of a weight bully who’s failed to make weight at multiple points in his career. He has an extremely dangerous guard and he’s known for his guillotines, but he has a variety of submissions he can throw up as he has two wins by armbar, four by guillotine, seven triangles, two Brabo chokes, and two Anacondas. In his seven UFC fights, he only attempted one takedown, which he failed to land, while his opponents got him down on eight of their nine attempts. But don’t get it twisted, he wants opponents to take him down as his favorite position to work out of is on his back in the full guard. He’s also made improvements to his striking and is capable of knocking opponents out on the feet as he showed against Moises, which makes Alvarez a really tough fighter to deal with.

Elves Brener

5th UFC Fight (3-1)

Coming off his first UFC loss, Brener dropped a decision to Myktybek Orolbai, who took Brener down five times on 17 attempts and controlled him for over seven minutes. Brener was able to land three takedowns of his own on six attempts and also had two reversals on the mat. Orolbai had Brener hurt at multiple points in the fight, but Brener was able to survive to see the judges and has still never been finished in his career. That snapped a five-fight winning streak for Brener and he started out 3-0 in the UFC. Just before that loss, Brener landed a first round knockout win in front of his home Brazilian crowd, which came against an opponent who was making his short notice UFC debut on just a few days’ notice. While Brener was a decent sized favorite in that matchup, he was a massive underdog in each of his first two UFC fights (+475 & +470), yet still found ways to squeak out wins in each of those matches. The most recent of those wins came against a really dangerous opponent in Guram Kutateladze, who had Brener badly hurt early in the fight and won each of the first two rounds. However, Kutateladze was slowing down in the back half of the match and looked to be running on fumes when Brener punched him in the side of the neck and Kutateladze just sort of slowly collapsed to the mat, with the fight being quickly stopped. If Kutateladze could have just survived for another minute and a half he would have won a unanimous decision. Prior to that, Brener won a close/controversial split decision in his UFC debut against Zubaira Tukhugov. Most people scored the fight for Tukhugov, who was fighting up a weight class, still missed weight, and was cut following the match. Neither fighter landed any of their takedown attempts in the fight, Brener on three attempts and Tukhugov on four. So Brener could easily be 2-2 or even 1-3 in the UFC right now.

Now 16-4 as a pro, Brener has three KO/TKO wins, 11 submissions, and two decision victories. Two of his knockout victories ended in round three, with the other ending in round one. Eight of his submissions ended in round one, one came in round two, and two occurred in round three. He’s never been finished and all four of his losses went the distance and he’s just 2-4 with the judges in his career. Brener has spent time both at 145 lb and 155 lb, but he’s remained at 155 lb since 2021. His second most recent fight was actually at a 165 lb Catchweight after the late opponent change.

Overall, Brener is often looking to take opponents down and beat them up on the mat while looking for submissions, although he’s found less success with that approach since he joined the UFC. In his four UFC fights, he landed just 5 of his 16 takedowns attempts (31.3% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 6 of their 24 attempts (75% defense). While his takedown defense has held up decently well in the UFC, we did see Gabriel Santos outwrestle his way to a decision win against Brener on the regional scene back in 2020. Santos was notably moving up from 135 lb for the first time in that 148 lb Catchweight match. Brener has been hittable in striking exchanges and averages 4.82 SSA/min, while he’s nearly been knocked out multiple times. However, he trains with Charles Oliveira and a bunch of other killers at Chute Boxe in Sao Paulo, so he has a good team around him.

Fight Prediction:

Alvarez will have a 5” height and reach advantage, while Brener is five years younger than the 31-year-old Alvarez.

Alvarez looks to be more dangerous than Brener everywhere, although Alvarez has always relied on finishes to win fights and no one has ever put Brener away early. With that said, we’ve seen Brener rocked at multiple points and it just seems like a matter of time before he suffers his first early loss and this very well may be the spot. Alvarez has the ability to finish this fight on either the feet or the mat and Brener has attempted multiple takedowns in all three of his UFC fights to make it out of the first round. If that trend continues here, then Alvarez will have opportunities to look for submissions off his back, and if it doesn’t then there’s a good chance that Alvarez will knock Brener out. The only way we really see Alvarez losing is if can’t find a finish and then completely gasses out in round three the way Guram Kutateladze did. While that’s not impossible, we still like Alvarez’s chances of handing Brener his first early loss and expect it to come in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Joel Alvarez ITD” at +105.

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DFS Implications:

Alvarez has averaged 98 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, but despite all of those victories coming in the first two rounds, he’s only topped 97 points once. The reason he typically doesn’t put up big scores in his finishes is simple—he’s a guard player who invites opponents to take him down, but has never landed a takedown of his own in the UFC and only even attempted one. However, his striking has looked improved in his last few fights and he doesn't look nearly as one-dimensional now as he did early in his UFC career. He also only fights once a year, leaving him more time to learn and grow between every bout, but also more potential ring rust to knock off every time he steps inside the Octagon. While Brener has never been finished, he’s been very hittable, averaging 4.82 SSA/min. That’s encouraging for Alvarez’s upside if he can hand Brener his first early loss, but we don’t see Alvarez scoring well without a finish. There has been a decent line move in Alvarez’s favor, which will drive his ownership up, and he’s now cheap and underpriced on both DraftKings and FanDuel. That lowers his tournament appeal somewhat, but there’s a really good chance that he finishes Brener and ends up in winning lineups, making it a tough spot to fade. The odds imply Alvarez has a 61% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.

Brener is coming off his first UFC loss, which was long overdue after he backed into a 3-0 start with the organization. He averaged 89 DraftKings points in those three wins, with his last two victories both ending by knockout. However he only scored 60 points in a close/questionable split-decision win in his UFC debut and then nearly got knocked out in his next fight, but narrowly survived and outlasted Guram Kutateladze to land a late finish of his own. He then took on a short notice debuting opponent and landed a first round knockout in a dream spot. So he’s been very fortunate so far in the UFC and that predictably caught up with him in his last fight, where he lost a decision and was nearly finished along the way. He gets another tough matchup here and there’s a good chance he’ll suffer the first early loss of his career. And even if he can survive, it’s hard to see him scoring especially well without a finish. Alvarez has an extremely dangerous guard and Brener would be foolish to look for takedowns. Alvarez also has a massive height and reach advantage and looks like the more dangerous striker. So unless Alvarez just gasses out and gets finished by default, we don’t see many paths to Brener scoring well. The one thing Brener has going for him in DFS is that Alvarez will be incredibly popular and Brener will be very low owned after the line moved heavily in Alvarez’s favor. So if Brener does somehow pull off the upset and score well, he would be a massive leverage play in tournaments. The odds imply Brener has a 39% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #5

Mackenzie Dern

14th UFC Fight (8-5)

Dern is coming off a close decision loss to Amanda Lemos and has now dropped two straight and three of her last four. In her recent loss, Dern was able to land a takedown in the first round, but Lemos survived on the mat and Dern failed to complete either of her two takedown attempts in the later rounds, although did secure two reversals in those rounds. Lemos nearly finished Dern early in round two and finished ahead 41-21 in significant strikes and also landed two takedowns of her own. Prior to that, Dern suffered the first early loss of her career in a R2 TKO against Jessica Andrade, who amazingly knocked Dern down four times in the affair. Dern failed to land any of her four takedown attempts in the fight and unsurprisingly got dominated in the striking exchanges. That came after Dern won a dominant five-round decision over Angela Hill, where Dern landed a career best 126 significant strikes and three takedowns, while also tacking on a knockdown. Dern seemed to channel all of the personal drama she had going on with her divorce and unleashed it on Hill and she fought like a woman possessed for the entire 25 minutes. That came just after Dern lost a five-round majority decision loss to Yan Xiaonan. While four of Dern’s first seven UFC fights ended in first round submission wins, five of her last six fights went the distance (2-3), with the one exception being the TKO loss to Andrade. Dern hasn’t submitted anybody since early 2021.

Now 13-5 as a pro, Dern has seven wins by submission and six decision victories. Six of her seven submission wins came in the first round, with the one exception being a 2017 third round submission just before Dern made her UFC debut. The only other fight Dern has ever been part of that didn’t end in either a decision or a first round submission win was her second round TKO loss, which is the only time she’s ever been finished. Her other four losses all went the distance.

Overall, Dern is a high level BJJ black belt and former ADCC world champion, but has also improved her striking over the course of her UFC career, although she still struggles defensively. She looked more dangerous than ever on the feet against Hill, but then looked lost on the feet against Andrade and Lemos more recently, so she’s still been inconsistent and struggles against high-level power punchers. In her 13 UFC fights, Dern landed just 9 of her 60 takedown attempts (15% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on five of their seven attempts (28.6% defense). While she’s historically struggled with her takedown accuracy and relied on unorthodox approaches to engaging in grappling exchanges, she has made some improvement to her wrestling and eight of her nine takedowns landed occurred in her last seven fights, after she only landed one takedown in her first six UFC appearances. She also has no problem pulling guard to get fights to the mat and is extremely dangerous off her back.

Loopy Godinez

12th UFC Fight (11-4)

Godinez is fresh off a decision loss to Virna Jandiroba, who was able to take Godinez down twice on nine attempts and control her for six and a half minutes, while also securing a reversal and three official submission attempts. The striking numbers were close, with Godinez finishing ahead in significant strikes 38-30, but Jandiroba leading in total strikes 86-50. That snapped a four-fight winning streak for Godinez, with all of those wins coming in 2023 as Godinez has been staying very active. Three of those wins went the distance, with two of those being split against a pair of grapplers in Cynthia Calvillo and Tabatha Ricci. She outlanded Ricci in every round and stuffed all six of Ricci’s takedown attempts, yet some Ricci simp judge scored the fight 30-27 for her, while the other two had it 29-28 for Godinez. Prior to that, Godinez absolutely dominated a one-dimensional striker in Elise Reed in a second round submission win, which was Godinez's only fight to end early in her last nine outings. Nine of her 11 UFC fights went the distance (5-4), with the one other exception being a 2021 first round submission win over the highly submittable Silvana Gomez Juarez. Three of Godinez’s nine UFC decisions were split (2-1), with all of those splits coming against grapplers. The one loss in those three splits came in a robbery in Godinez’s 2021 UFC debut against Jessica Penne. The times that Godinez has been able to pull away in fights is when she can get her wrestling going against strikers. A lot of people will question why Godinez didn’t use her wrestling more against Angela Hill, but that’s because the fight was moved up on short notice and Godinez was coming off a hip injury that limited her ability to wrestle at the time. The only other striker to defeat Godinez was Luana Carolina, and Godinez took that fight up a weight class on a week’s notice.

Now 12-4 as a pro, Godinez has one TKO win, two submissions, and nine decision victories. Two of her three early wins occurred in the first round, with the other ending in round two. All four of her losses ended in close decisions and she’s never been finished.

Overall, Godinez is a solid wrestler, and a good boxer, who thrives in favorable matchups against strikers, but is often in closely contested decisions against grapplers. She landed 30 takedowns on 64 attempts in her 11 UFC fights (46.9% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on just 6 of their 38 attempts (84.2% defense). She has a high fight IQ and does a good job of relying on her wrestling against strikers and striking against grapplers. The one exception that people seem to still hold against her was her fight against Angela Hill, where she didn’t wrestle. However, that can be explained by the fact that she came into that match with a hip injury that really limited her in that short notice fight. She’s shown the ability to put up big striking totals when she’s not wrestling, and she landed 132 significant strikes against Emily Ducote and 98 against Tabatha Ricci. Godinez is facing a grappler here, so you can expect her to rely on her striking once again and we’d be surprised if she looked for any takedowns in the fight.

Fight Prediction:

Dern will have a 2” height and reach advantage.

We generally see Godinez involved in close decisions whenever she goes up a grappler and that’s what we’re expecting to see here. Dern is very dangerous on the mat, but has struggled with her takedown accuracy (15%) and hasn’t submitted anybody since early 2021. Godinez has a solid 84% takedown defense, although did get taken down twice in her last fight by Virna Jandiroba, who in fairness, has much better wrestling than Dern. We aren’t eliminating the possibility for Dern to slither her way into a grappling exchange and locking up a submission, but it’s far more likely that Godinez can avoid that and take this one to the scorecards. Godinez is the superior striker, but has a tendency to make fights close against grapplers and it would not be at all surprising if this ends in another split decision. And when you combine a potential coin flip decision with Dern’s submission abilities, we’ll tentatively take her to win, but there’s a good chance Godinez squeaks out a decision win and it’s impossible to feel comfortable with either of these two in this matchup.

Our favorite bet here is “Dern/Godinez S-DEC” at +300.

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DFS Implications:

Dern has averaged 96 DraftKings points in her eight UFC wins, and scored a career-best 153 points in a five-round decision over Angela Hill in her last win. However, she followed that up with two straight losses and is now just 1-3 in her last four outings. In fairness, she’s been facing a series of really tough opponents and her last two losses were against Amanda Lemos and Jessica Andrade, who both hit like a truck. She’ll face a less dangerous, but still very talented, opponent in Godinez here and the risk of getting knocked out is significantly lower for Dern. However, Godinez does own a stout 84% takedown defense, which will make it tougher for Dern to get the fight to the mat. That lowers the chances of Dern finding the submission win that she likely needs to score well and it’s been three and a half years since Dern got anyone out of there early. Dern only averaged 67 DraftKings points in her three UFC three-round decision wins and Godinez only averages 3.58 SSA/min. That likely leaves Dern as a submission or bust option and she only has one career submission win beyond the first round. The odds imply Dern has a 52% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.

Godinez has averaged 99 DraftKings points in her seven UFC wins, despite five of those going the distance. While she only scored 70, 88, 66, and 86 points in four of her UFC victories, she scored 128, 129, and 127 points in the other three, showing massive scoring potential when given the right matchup. And it’s not complicated determining the right matchup. All of those explosion spots came against one-dimensional strikers where she was able to rely heavily on her wrestling. She’s well rounded with a high fight IQ and does a great job of attacking opponents where they’re the weakest. So when she faces strikers she wrestles and when she faces wrestlers she strikes. It’s not rocket science, yet so many fighters struggle with executing smart game plans and so much of the DFS and betting field struggles to recognize the fighters that do. Unfortunately for Godinez, she’s facing a high-level grappler here and it would be surprising if Godinez looked for any takedowns. She’s never scored more than 70 DraftKings points in a fight where she didn’t land a takedown and even though Dern’s striking defense has been pretty suspect and she’s been dropped five times in her last two fights, Godinez isn’t much of a knockout threat and lacks the power that Dern’s last two opponents possessed. Godinez will need to be cautious of the grappling threat that Dern holds and if Godinez wins we expect it to come in a close lower scoring decision. The odds imply Godinez has a 48% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #4

Michael Chiesa

19th UFC Fight (11-7)

Coming in sideways to the end of his career, Chiesa has dropped three straight after winning a wrestling-heavy five-round decision over Neil Magny in January 2021. He followed that up by getting submitted in the first round by Vicente Luque and then losing a wrestling-heavy three-round decision to Sean Brady in November 2021. Chiesa then took all of 2022 off after suffering a back injury, before returning in July 2023, where he was submitted in the first round by Kevin Holland. So Chiesa is coming off a year long layoff and has only fought once in the last 33 months and the fight lasted just 159 seconds before he tapped. The last time Chiesa finished anybody was in a 2018 submission win over Carlos Condit, in what was Chiesa’s first UFC fight at 170 lb, after he had previously been competing at 155 lb. Condit notably finished his career with six submission losses.

Now 16-7 as a pro, Chiesa has 10 submission wins and six decision victories. His last five submission wins all came in round two, after the first five of his career ended in round one. He’s been knocked out once (R2 2014), submitted five times, and has just one decision loss. All six of Chiesa’s early losses occurred in the opening two rounds, with three in round one and three more in round two. Chiesa spent the first 10 years of his pro career down at 155 lb, before moving up to 170 lb for his last seven fights (4-3).

Overall, Chiesa is a pure grappler/wrestler, who’s never been involved in a high-volume striking affair and only averages 1.87 SSL/min and 1.70 SSA/min. He pumps out his jab in space as a range finder, but isn’t a threat to knock anybody out and only uses his striking to set up takedowns. In his seven fights since moving up to 170 lb, he landed 21 of his 32 takedown attempts (65.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 14 attempts (50% defense). Chiesa is approaching his 37th birthday and doesn't look to have much left in the tank after suffering the back injury in 2022, but the UFC has mercifully matched him up with a fellow glue factory candidate. And who knows, maybe Chiesa will look better here than he did in his first fight back from injury, which ended so quickly that it’s hard to even take too much away from it.

Tony Ferguson

24th UFC Fight (15-8)

Now 40 years old, Ferguson is like a bad smell you can't get rid of and refuses to hang it up. He’s lost seven straight fights and was finished in the later rounds in four of those. He’s wearing damage like a wet paper bag and nearly got finished by Paddy Pimblett in the first round of his most recent loss. However, he narrowly hung on to survive and then Pimblett gassed out and just laid on him for the final 10 minutes to cruise to a decision win. Prior to that, Ferguson was submitted in the closing seconds of the third round by Bobby Green, who hadn’t submitted anybody else in the last decade. Ten months prior to that loss against Green, Ferguson tried moving up to 170 lb for the first time since his 2011 UFC debut and was submitted in the fourth round by Nate Diaz in a matchup that got put together on just a day’s notice after Chimaev missed weight so badly that the UFC was forced to shuffle all of the main card matchups. Ferguson returned to 155 lb following that loss for his next two fights, but will now be once again moving up to 170 lb for this next fight. Leading up to those two submission losses, Ferguson got violently knocked out by Michael Chandler in the opening seconds of round two in a 2022 match. That came just after Ferguson got smothered on the mat in back-to-back three-round decision losses to Beneil Dariush and Charles Oliveira, following a life shortening beating from Justin Gaethje in a 2020 R5 TKO defeat. It’s been over five years since Ferguson won a fight and in his last six losses he only won a single round on the scorecards, which was round one against Chandler.

Now 25-10 as a pro, Ferguson has 12 wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has five decision losses. His last 14 fights all made it past the first round, with nine seeing a third round and five going the distance. Ferguson started his career at 170 lb before moving down to 155 lb in 2011, following his UFC debut. Lately he’s been bouncing between 155 lb and 170 lb to try and keep the pink slip administrators off his tail.

Overall, Ferguson is a shell of his past self and we’ve seen him get dominated both on the feet and the mat during his current losing streak. His body has taken insane abuse, and his once legendary durability is finally giving out. While he’s a 10th planet jiu-jitsu black belt with a background in wrestling and a dangerous submission threat, he’s only landed one takedown in his last 14 fights (1 for 11 on his attempts). Over that same stretch, his opponents got him down on 15 of their 37 attempts (59.5% defense) and the last six opponents who tried to take Ferguson down were all successful. Desperate to rekindle the magic, Ferguson has recently been doing intensive training sessions with David Goggins and went back to his old gym at Classic Fight Team for the first time since 2015, and now started sparring for the first time in a long time. It’s just getting kind of sad at this point with Ferguson and hopefully either the UFC forces his hand or someone close to him talks some sense into him about retiring in the very near future.

Fight Prediction:

Chiesa will have a 2” height advantage, but Ferguson will have a 1” reach advantage. Chiesa is four years younger than the 40-year-old Ferguson.

These two are dustier than a sack of Soviet potatoes and they both should have been sent to the shoe factory years ago. Hopefully this is a retirement fight for both of them, but at this point it looks like Ferguson is determined to be the first fighter to ever die inside the Octagon. Chiesa quits anytime someone wraps up his neck, so it’s theoretically not the worst spot for Ferguson to pull off a miracle submission, but it’s so hard to have any confidence in him at this stage in his career. Chiesa will be looking to take Ferguson down and control him, but hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat lately and it’s been almost six years since Chiesa got anyone out of there early. So while they’re both capable of submitting the other, there’s a good chance that Chiesa just rides out a decision win on the mat, which is how we’re expecting this to end.

Our favorite bet here is “Michael Chiesa DEC” at +145.

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DFS Implications:

Chiesa has averaged 101 DraftKings points in his four wins since moving up from 155 lb to 170 lb in 2018, despite three of those going the distance, but has now dropped three straight, is coming off a year long layoff, and has only competed once in the last 33 months. At 36 years old, he’s getting up there in age and he spends more time behind the booth than in the Octagon these days. It’s been three and a half years since he won a fight and almost six years since he finished anybody. He tends to quit via submission as soon as he’s in trouble and at this stage in his career it’s impossible to trust him.*In steps the corpse of Tony Ferguson.* So clearly the only reason for optimism is that he’s taking on an even more washed up fighter in Ferguson who’s lost seven straight fights and who routinely provides opponents with massive scoring opportunities. Due to Chiesa’s wrestling-heavy style, we’re far more interested in playing him on DraftKings than FanDuel, and he could still easily get priced out of winning lineups on both sites even with a finish or a dominant wrestling-heavy decision win. The only time he’s topped 103 DraftKings points in his 18 UFC fights was in a 2019 wrestling-heavy decision where he scored 110 points. It’s definitely possible we see something similar here based on who he’s facing and the fact that Ferguson is moving up to 170 lb is encouraging for Chiesa’s chances of dominating him on the ground and Ferguson was submitted in two of his last three losses. The odds imply Chiesa has an 82% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Ferguson has lost seven straight fights and is now 40 years old. His last win was against Donald Cerrone all the way back in 2019 and betting against him has been a very profitable endeavor that we’ve capitalized on in seven straight matches. However, he will be facing a fellow washed up fighter in Chiesa, who has been very prone to being submitted. So if Ferguson was ever going to win another fight, this would be the time. With that said, he’ll likely spend most of the fight on his back, meaning he’ll need to complete a submission to pull off the upset. He’s shown no ability to win rounds on the scorecards and it would be pretty shocking to see him get his hand raised in a decision. We can’t blame anyone who chases the hail mary submission here just based on how quickly Chiesa is willing to tap when anyone wraps up his neck, but it’s still an unlikely scenario. The odds imply Ferguson has an 18% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #3

Deiveson Figueiredo

17th UFC Fight (12-3-1)

Fresh off a second round submission win over a washed up Cody Garbrandt, Figueiredo has won both of his fights since moving up to 135 lb at the end of 2023. Figueiredo actually lost an uneventful first round against Garbrandt on all three scorecards, but then took Garbrandt down early in round two and patiently attacked submissions until he was able to complete a rear-naked choke late in the round. Prior to that, Figueiredo won a unanimous 30-27 decision over a highly ranked, but potentially washed up Rob Font, in what was Figueiredo’s first career fight at 135 lb. The striking numbers were almost dead even, with Font actually finishing ahead in significant strikes 46-45. However, Figueiredo landed the more damaging shots and also secured four takedowns with four minutes of control time. Leading up to the pair of wins, Figueiredo fought Brandon Moreno four straight times for the Flyweight belt (1-2-1). Moreno finished Figueiredo in the third round in two of those fights, while the other two ended in close decisions. Leading up to the Moreno saga, Figueiredo submitted Alex Perez in the first round of his first title defense, after originally winning the Flyweight belt in July 2020 against an aging Joseph Benavidez, who retired one fight later. That was actually the second straight time Figueiredo finished the former Flyweight champion in Benavidez, but Figueiredo missed weight by 2.5 lb in their first match and was ineligible to win the belt. The first of those wins ended in a second round knockout, which remains Figueiredo’s only knockout victory in his last 12 fights, but he does have four submission wins over that stretch, all in the first two rounds.

Now 23-3-1 as a pro, Figueiredo has nine wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and five decision victories. Eight of Figueiredo’s 12 UFC wins ended early with four KO/TKOs and four submissions. However, his last three and four of his last five finishes ended in submissions and three of his four UFC knockouts occurred in his first four UFC fights. Amazingly, his last six knockout wins all ended in round two, while eight of his nine career submission wins ended in round one, with the other coming in round two. He has one TKO loss and one submission defeat on his record, both in the third round against Brandon Moreno. The only other loss of Figueiredo’s career was a 2019 decision against Jussier Formiga in a low-volume grappling match where Figueiredo was taken down three times and controlled for nearly half the fight.

Overall, Figueiredo is a BJJ black belt and a powerful striker, who is dangerous anywhere a fight can go. He had crazy power at 125 lb, but at just 5’5” he’s kind of undersized at 135 lb. He does a good job of mixing in takedowns, and landed a career best four in his win over Font. He loves looking for guillotines and has a tight squeeze once he gets his hands on you. He only averages 3.01 SSL/min and 3.38 SSA/min, and has never landed more than 67 significant strikes or absorbed more than 61 in a three-round fight. Figueiredo routinely struggled to make 125 lb, and is now 36 years old, so it makes sense that he decided to move up to 135 lb after losing the Flyweight belt for the second time. Now he’ll get his toughest test yet at 135 lb.

Marlon Vera

24th UFC Fight (15-8)

Vera was recently outclassed for 25 minutes in a title fight decision loss to Sean O'Malley, who outlanded Vera 230-89 in significant strikes, while no takedowns were attempted in the fight. Prior to that, Vera won a high-volume decision over Pedro Munhoz the same night that O'Malley originally won the belt over Sterling. For as much is made about Vera being a slow starter, he landed 39 significant strikes in the first round against Munhoz and all three judges scored the round for him. While the fight seemed pretty close for the first two rounds, two of the three judges scored it 30-27 for Vera, while the other judge gave Munhoz round two. Vera finished ahead 141-113 in significant strikes, but was only ahead by five strikes going into round three. Leading up to that win, Vera suffered his only other loss in his last seven fights when he got outwrestled by Cory Sandhagen in a 2023 five-round decision that was somehow split, but clearly Sandhagen won. Sandhagen landed three takedowns on 12 attempts with seven minutes of control time in the fight, while also leading 128-58 in significant strikes and 187-73 in total strikes and it seemed like Vera was having an off night. That came after Vera knocked out Dominick Cruz in the fourth round of another main event, after winning an action-packed five-round decision over Rob Font just before that. Leading up to his string of main events, Vera knocked out a washed up Frankie Edgar in the third round, after winning a three-round decision over Davey Grant and losing a three-round decision to Jose Aldo. Since finishing O'Malley in the first round back in 2020, Vera has seen the third round in eight straight fights, with six of those going the distance. His two finishes over that stretch were a pair of late round knockouts against washed up opponents in a 37-year-old Dominick Cruz and a 40-year-old Frankie Edgar. Vera has gone 11-4 in his last 15 fights, with those four losses coming in decisions against Sean O'Malley, Cory Sandhagen, Jose Aldo, and Song Yadong.

Now 23-9-1 as a pro, Vera has eight wins by KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and five decision victories. He’s never been finished, with all nine of his career losses going the distance. He’s gone just 4-8 with the judges in the UFC, but won three of the last five decisions he’s been, after going 1-6 in his first seven decisions with the organization. Eleven of his 15 UFC wins ended early, but only three of those finishes occurred in round one, while four ended in round two, three in round three, and one in round four. Three of his last four finishes occurred in rounds three and four. While Vera has more submission wins than knockouts, his last four finishes all came by KO/TKO and he hasn’t submitted any of his last 11 opponents going back to 2019.

Overall, Vera is an insanely durable cardio machine who’s generally been content with keeping fights standing lately, despite being a BJJ black belt with 10 submission wins on his record. He didn’t land a takedown in any of his last six fights on just two attempts, and only took two of his last 11 opponents down, landing 4 of his 11 takedown attempts (36.4% accuracy) in those fights. Over that same stretch, his opponents got him down on 10 of their 37 attempts (73% defense). However, when he has been taken down we’ve seen him controlled for periods of time and he’s not a great wrestler. Despite already having 23 UFC fights under his belt, he only turned 31 in December and should be in his prime. He absorbs more significant strikes than he lands, as he averages 4.31 SSL/min and 5.48 SSA/min. That generally leaves him reliant on damage and finishes to win fights and you can’t ask someone for their opinion on him without hearing about how he’s a slow starter. That’s historically been true and he lost the first round in seven of his last eights fights that made it to round two, but he did win the first round in his second most recent fight.

Fight Prediction:

Vera will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while also being five years younger than the 36-year-old Figueiredo.

Both of these two currently rank in the top six of the Bantamweight division, with Vera checking in at #4 and Figueiredo at #6. They’re also both BJJ black belts who absorb more strikes than they land on average, so there are a lot of similarities between the two. Figueiredo uses his wrestling more than Vera, which could give Figueiredo a leg up if this hits the scorecards, but Vera is the larger of the two and does have a 70% takedown defense. So it will be interesting to see how much success Figueiredo can find in getting the fight to the mat. Vera has never been finished and we’d be surprised to see that change here, so if Figueiredo does win, it likely comes in a decision. The only opponent to ever finish Figueiredo was Brandon Moreno, who did so twice in the third round. That’s arguably when Vera is the most dangerous and he has a very similar frame to Moreno. Our expectations are that Figueiredo will find some early wrestling success to take a lead on the scorecards and then we’ll either see Vera come back and land a late finish or lose a close decision to Figueiredo, and we lean towards the latter.

Our favorite bet here is “Marlon Vera R3” at +1600.

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DFS Implications:

Figueiredo has averaged 96 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC wins, with eight of those ending early and one ending in a five-round decision. In his three UFC three-round decision wins, he only returned scores of 77, 81, and 45 DraftKings points, which seemingly leaves him reliant on becoming the first fighter to ever finish Vera if he wants to return a useful score here. And even in Figueiredo’s recent late second round submission win, he still only scored 88 DraftKings points, showing the potential for him to fail even with a finish if it comes beyond the first round. Figueiredo is undersized at 135 lb, after spending almost his entire career at 125 lb, and we’d be very surprised if he got Vera out of there early. And considering that Figueiredo is a big name who generally carries a high amount of ownership, he looks like an easy fade in tournaments. The odds imply Figueiredo has a 57% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

Vera has averaged 94 DraftKings points in his 15 UFC wins, scoring 81 or more points in each of his last 13 victories. While he only topped 98 points in one of his last eight wins, he’s shown a solid scoring floor, has never been finished, and was also able to return 129 points in a five-round decision win over Rob Font. However, he’s gone six straight fights without securing a takedown and after landing seven knockdowns over a three-fight stretch in 2021-2022, Vera failed to land any knockdowns in his last three outings. Also working against him, Figueiredo has never absorbed more than 61 significant strikes in a three-round fight and only averages 3.38 SSA/min. We’ve also seen Vera struggle to really score well in some of his late finishes and he’s a notoriously slow starter who rarely finishes anyone in round one. While his cheap price tag will still keep him in play even without a huge score, there are ways he lands a late finish or wins a decision and still doesn't score enough to end up in the optimal on DraftKings. We still prefer playing Vera to Figueiredo, but both of these two are big names and we expect the fight to be overowned as a whole relative to its chances of producing a piece in the optimal lineup. The odds imply Vera has a 43% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #2

Shara Magomedov

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Magomedov is coming off a third round TKO win over a debuting Antonio Trocoli, who failed to land any of his seven takedown attempts against Magomedov, but didn’t control him for nearly five minutes along the fence. However, that’s all Trocoli was able to do to slow things down and Magomedov finished ahead 82-16 in significant strikes and 108-39 in total strikes. Trocoli had actually been scheduled to fight the week before, but that matchup was scrapped the day before weigh-ins and then Trocoli filled in on a few days’ notice, cut weight for the second time in as many weeks, and had to fly around the world to take on Magomedov in Saudi Arabia. So overall it was a teed up spot for Magomedov to find success and it came as no surprise that Trocoli slowed down late in the fight and was finished. Prior to that, Magomedov won a high-volume unanimous 30-27 decision in his UFC debut against Bruno Silva, while Magomedov was taken down three times and controlled for close to seven minutes, he still outlanded Silva 113-65 in significant strikes and 222-107 in total strikes. Magomedov never stopped landing damage, even when he was on his back, and the judges rewarded him for that. Before making his debut, Magomedov landed a first round knockout in just eight seconds, which came just eight days after a decision win. While his first eight pro fights all ended in the first two rounds, four of his last five fights made it to the third round, with two of those going the distance.

Now 13-0 as a pro, Magomedov has 11 wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. Seven of his knockouts ended in round one, two occurred in round two, and two ended in round three. He has a kickboxing win over Blood Diamond back in 2019, but hasn’t faced the highest level of competition in his MMA career.

Overall, Magomedov is a one-eyed, one-dimensional striker who relies heavily on his violent arsenal of kicks. While he’s from Dagestan, he hasn’t shown any sort of wrestling ability and prefers to keep fights standing. He started out training boxing as a child and went on to become a Master of Sports in Thai Boxing and kickboxing, as well as an International Master of Sports in Burmese boxing. He’s got kind of a hybrid karate style, where he’s very light on his feet and throws explosive kicks while doing a good job of controlling the distance and staying at kicking range where he’s the most effective. Despite his kick-heavy approach, he puts up big striking totals as he pushes a solid pace and is constantly forcing the action, averaging 7.10 SSL/min in his two UFC fights. He has good power with his striking, however, his defensive wrestling may be his kryptonite and even a one dimensional striker like Bruno Silva was able to take him down three times and control him for nearly half the fight. So we expect Magomedov to struggle once he gets matched up with a wrestler. Fortunately for him, he’s facing a fellow one-dimensional striker here.

Michal Oleksiejczuk

15th UFC Fight (7-6, NC)

Oleksiejczuk is just two months removed from an armbar submission loss to Kevin Holland where it looked like Oleksiejczuk’s elbow was hyperextended, so it’s surprising that he’s making this quick of a turnaround. However, from what he posted online, it looked like he resumed normal activities shortly after the loss, so who knows how serious the injury actually was. Before getting submitted, he dropped Holland with a big left Hand, but then found himself in a submission attempt as he went in for the finish on the ground. Just before that, Oleksiejczuk suffered another first round submission loss at the hands of Michel Pereira, who has now finished three straight opponents in under 66 seconds since moving up from 170 lb to 185 lb. Pereira had Oleksiejczuk badly hurt from body shots, before he dragged him to the mat by his neck and immediately finished him with a rear-naked choke that Oleksiejczuk never even attempted to fight off. Prior to that, Oleksiejczuk landed a first round TKO win over a dangerous striker in Chidi Njokuani, where both fighters had the other hurt in a back and forth barn burner. However, Oleksiejczuk was able to land a rare takedown and finish Njokuani with ground and pound in the final minute of the opening round. That came after Oleksiejczuk was submitted in the second round by a solid grappler in Caio Borralho, who was able to take Oleksiejczuk down three times and then finish him with a rear-naked choke midway through round two. Leading up to that loss, Oleksiejczuk landed a pair of first round knockouts against Cody Brundage and Sam Alvey in his first two fights at 185 lb, after losing his last 205 lb fight in a decision against Dustin Jacoby. Six of Oleksiejczuk’s seven UFC wins have come by R1 KO, with the one exception being a 2021 split-decision victory over Modestas Bukauskas, who ran away from him for most of the fight. Oleksiejczuk originally came into the UFC in 2017 with a 12-2 record and on a nine fight winning streak. However, after winning his 2017 UFC debut by decision over Khalil Rountree in 2017, Oleksiejczuk tested positive for a banned estrogen blocker and was suspended for a year and the results of the fight were overturned to a No Contest. Upon his return, he landed a pair of first round knockouts, but was then submitted in back-to-back fights by Ovince Saint Preux and Jimmy Crute in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Now 19-8 as a pro, Oleksiejczuk has 14 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. His last nine and 11 of his 14 KO wins ended in round one, with the other three coming in round two. His lone submission win occurred in the second round of a 2016 match. He’s been knocked out once, submitted six times, and has one decision loss. His lone TKO loss came in the first round of a 2014 fight, while four of his six submission defeats also ended in round one, with the other two coming in round two. Eleven of his last 13 UFC fights ended in the first two rounds, with nine of those ending in round one. Oleksiejczuk was always undersized at 205 lb, so it’s not at all shocking that he finally made the move down to 185 lb in 2022, where he’s since gone 3-3. His 2014 pro debut was also at 185 lb, but the rest of his career was spent at 198-212 lb.

Overall, Oleksiejczuk is a pure striker who’s constantly pressuring his opponents and looking for violent body and head shots out of the southpaw stance. He’s extremely dangerous with his striking, but has been very prone to getting taken down and submitted. He only landed two takedowns in his last 13 fights and really doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling. In his 14 UFC fights, he’s been taken down 16 times on 31 attempts (48.4% defense), although half of those takedowns came against Jimmy Crute, who took him down 8 times on 10 attempts. Despite making his UFC debut all the way back in 2017, Oleksiejczuk is only 29 years old and theoretically still has time to improve his grappling if he wants to make a push in the division. Either way, he’s rarely in a boring fight and you always want to tune in when they lock the cage doors behind him.

Fight Prediction:

Magomedov will have a 2” height advantage, but Oleksiejczuk will have a 1” reach advantage.

This sets up as an action packed striking battle between two dangerous knockout artists. Magomedov relies heavily on his kicks, while Oleksiejczuk is mostly focussed on his boxing. While Oleksiejczuk has been incredibly prone to being submitted, neither of these two even know how to spell submission. They also only have one knockout loss between them, which Oleksiejczuk suffered all the way back in 2014. So they’ve both been durable and it wouldn’t be shocking to see that result in this fight going the distance, despite the damage we’re expecting to see inflicted. If it does go the full 15 minutes, we favor Magomedov to get his hand raised, as he lands more volume, looks more durable, and should have the crowd behind him. However, Oleksiejczuk is always live to land an early knockout and generally excels when facing strikers. If you’re inclined to bet Magomedov’s moneyline, it could make more sense to wait until after the first round, as so much of Oleksiejczuk’s win equity is tied to a knockout in the opening five minutes. If Oleksiejczuk can’t get Magomedov out of there in the first round, then he’ll likely slow down some in the later rounds and either get knocked out himself or lose a decision. That leaves more ways to win for Magomedov, making him the rightful favorite.

Our favorite bet here is “Michal Oleksiejczuk KO” at +500.

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DFS Implications:

Magomedov is coming off a third round TKO win that was good for 94 DraftKings points, after he scored 97 points in a decision victory in his UFC debut. Just keep in mind, his recent finish came in a dream spot against a debutting opponent who had to fly around the world on a couple of days’ notice. Magomedov is a one-dimensional striker who offers nothing in the way of grappling, but does average a healthy 7.10 SSL/min. And while he’ll likely be in trouble once he faces any decent grapplers, he gets another one-dimensional striker in this matchup. This certainly isn’t a safe spot for the undefeated Magomedov, as Oleksiejczuk is an incredibly dangerous striker with a long history of first round knockout wins, but if Magomedov’s durability holds up, then he should have the opportunity to put up a big striking total and/or potentially find a finish. We’re not expecting to see much grappling here and it should be Magomedov’s kicks versus Oleksiejczuk’s boxing until one of them goes down. That style of fight is perfectly suited to the FanDuel scoring system and it will be tougher for Magomedov to return value on DraftKings in a decision. However, there’s a high chance someone gets knocked out, which would result in a solid score on both sites. The odds imply Magomedov has a 69% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.

Oleksiejczuk is an aggressive one-dimensional striker who’s landed first round knockouts in six of his seven UFC wins, showing massive scoring upside for DFS. He averaged an insane 119 DraftKings points in those six finishes, but scored just 59 points in his lone UFC decision victory. While Oleksiejczuk is always live to knock opponents out early, he hasn’t finished anybody beyond the first round since 2015 and tends to slow down later in fights. That seemingly leaves him as an early KO or bust option, but he’s exceptional at getting that job done. While he’s been very prone to getting taken down and submitted, with five of his six UFC losses coming by submission in under eight minutes, now he’s facing a one-dimensional striker and shouldn’t have to worry about his non-existent ground game. However, Magomedov has never been knocked out and is a dangerous striker himself, so this is still far from an easy matchup for Oleksiejczuk, even if it is the type of stylistic matchup where we’re generally more excited about his chances. At Oleksiejczuk’s cheap salary, it’s possible he could still serve as value play in a high-volume decision win, but we’re more so playing him for his knockout potential and he has a huge ceiling but an uncertain floor. The odds imply Oleksiejczuk has a 31% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

Fight #1

Umar Nurmagomedov

6th UFC Fight (5-0)

Nurmagomedov is five months removed from a decision win over a debuting Bekzat Almakhan, who had Nurmagomedov hurt 30 seconds into the fight. However, Nurmagomedov was able to get the fight to the mat to buy time to recover and went on to win a wrestling-heavy decision, where he landed all five of his takedown attempts and finished with eleven and a half minutes of control time, while also leading in significant strikes 68-3 and in total strikes 145-5. Prior to that, Nurmagomedov had been scheduled to fight Cory Sandhagen in an August 2023 main event, but Nurmagomedov pulled out and lost the headlining opportunity. That resulted in a 14 month layoff and Nurmagomedov’s second most recent fight was all the way back in January 2023 when he landed a first round knockout against Raoni Barcelos. That came after Nurmagomedov won a decision over Nate Maness. While two of Nurmagomedov’s last three fights went the distance, he locked up three straight submissions in the first two rounds of fights before that.

Now 17-0 as a pro, Nurmagomedov has two KO/TKO wins, seven submission victories, and eight decision wins. All nine of his finishes occurred in the first two rounds, with five ending in round one and four in round two. His last two and three of his last four finishes came in round one.

This will be the 2nd five-round fight of Nurmagomedov’s career, but first in the UFC. The only other time he was booked in a five-round fight was in 2019 in his last fight before joining the UFC. However, he submitted that opponent in the first round and has never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes.

Overall, Nurmagomedov has some of the slickest kicks you’ll ever see and throws up question mark kicks like he’s whipping you with a wet towel. A cousin of Khabib, the 28-year-old has really solid grappling in addition to his striking and landed 14 takedowns on 25 attempts in his five UFC fights (56% accuracy), while also successfully defending the only attempt against him. He’s typically looking to finish fights with rear-naked chokes, which is how he locked up his last six submission victories, but he also has more than enough power to finish things on the feet. He also rarely gets hit by his opponents and averages just 0.56 SSA/min, which is the fewest in UFC history for anyone with five or more UFC fights. We’ve yet to see how his cardio will hold up in the championship rounds or how he’ll look off his back, but he’s an elite wrestler who has shown the ability to dominate over the course of three rounds at multiple points. He’ll now be stepping into the toughest test of his career and we can’t wait to see how he does. Nurmagomedov said in a recent interview that the UFC promised him a title shot with a win here.

Cory Sandhagen

14th UFC Fight (10-3)

Sandhagen is almost exactly a year removed from a wrestling-heavy five-round decision win over Rob Font, who stepped in on 16 days’ notice after Umar Nurmagomedov dropped out. Sandhagen took font down seven times and controlled him for nearly 20 of the 25 minutes, while finishing ahead 34-9 in significant strikes and 132-25 in total strikes. After the fight, Sandhagen revealed that he completely tore his tricep in the first round, which is said resulted in him being unable to punch or elbow with that arm, forcing him to rely entirely on his wrestling. He then had surgery to repair the injury after the fight, which resulted in his year-long layoff. Just before that, Sandhagen won another wrestling-heavy decision over Marlon Vera, after Sandhagen defeated Song Yadong in a post R4 TKO via doctor stoppage in another main event. Sandhagen split Yadong open above his left eye early in the match and it was surprising the fight didn’t get stopped sooner. Interestingly, two of the three judges had the fight even after four rounds, despite Sandhagen leading in strikes in all four rounds, and we’ve consistently seen judges look for ways not to score rounds for Sandhagen. Leading up to his current three-fight winning streak, Sandhagen lost a pair of five-round decisions to Petr Yan and TJ Dillashaw, with the latter being a questionable split decision that many people thought Sandhagen won. Sandhagen’s only other UFC loss was a 2020 first round submission against Aljamain Sterling.

Now 17-4 as a pro, Sandhagen has seven wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and seven decision victories. All three of his career submission wins occurred in the first round, but two of those occurred in his first three pro fights and he’s only submitted one of his last 18 opponents (Mario Bautista in 2019). Seven of his last eight finishes ended in KO/TKOs. Three of his knockout wins occurred in round one and three more came in round two, while his 2022 R4 doctor stoppage TKO victory over Song Yadong is the only time he’s ever finished an opponent beyond the nine minute mark. He’s never been knocked out himself, with his only early loss coming in a R1 submission against Aljamain Sterling in 2020. His other three losses all went the distance. Sandhagen fought his first pro fight at 135 lb in 2015, but then moved up to 145 lb for his next eight matches from 2016 to 2018. Following his 2018 UFC debut at 145 lb, Sandhagen dropped back down to 135 lb where he’s stayed since.

This will be the 7th five-round fight of Sandhagen’s career and his 6th in a row. The first time he was scheduled to go five rounds was against Marlon Moreaes in October 2020 and Sandhagen landed a second round TKO. His next fight was only scheduled to go three rounds, which was when he knocked out Frankie Edgar in 28 seconds. He followed that up with a pair of five-round decision losses to T.J. Dillashaw and Petr Yan, leading up to a post R4 TKO win over Song Yadong. He then secured the first five-round decision win of his career in his win over Marlon Vera and followed it up with another five-round decision win over Rob Font. So Sandhagen is 4-2 in five-round fights and arguably should be 5-1. He finished ahead in significant strikes in all four of the five-round decisions he’s been to, but still lost two of those.

Overall, Sandhagen has historically been a high-volume striker who has never been outlanded in a UFC fight that lasted longer than 90 seconds, and averages 5.33 SSL/min and 3.40 SSA/min. However, he’s turned into a wrestler in his last couple of fights. In his 13 UFC fights, he landed 16 of his 48 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 14 of their 39 attempts (64.1% defense). While he landed 10 takedowns in his last two fights, he only landed six across his first 11 UFC matches. All but one of Sandhagen’s 13 UFC opponents tried to take him down, with nine of them being successful. Sandhagen is a BJJ brown belt and is a decent grappler on the mat who will go for all types of submissions off his back. He also trains at altitude in Colorado, which should be beneficial for his cardio in five-round fights.

Fight Prediction:

Sandhagen will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while Nurmagomedov is four years younger than the 32-year-old Sandhagen.

This is an interesting matchup because both of these two are very dangerous strikers, but they’ve also each been largely reliant on their wrestling lately. It will be much tougher for Sandhagen to find wrestling success in this matchup compared to his last couple and we give the wrestling advantage to Nurmagomedov. On the feet, they both offer a diverse arsenal of attacks, but we did see Nurmagomedov get badly hurt early on in his last fight, although neither fighter has ever been knocked out. Considering that Sandhagen’s last five fights all lasted at least 20 minutes and four of them went five full rounds, while Nurmagomedov has never been past the third round, we have to give the experience advantage to Sandhagen. He’s also shown the ability to go five hard rounds, while Nurmagomedov’s championship cardio remains a mystery. There’s the potential for Nurmagomedov to slow down late and we’ll give Sandhagen the advantage in cardio as well. We still like Nurmagomedov’s chances of finding wrestling success, it’s just a question of whether or not he can keep that up for five rounds if he can’t lock up a submission. Nurmagomedov will have the crowd behind him in Abu Dhabi, which could help him in a close decision, and also lowers the chances of the referee taking away positions from him on the ground. The judges already seem to dislike Sandhagen and when you also factor in Nurmagomedov’s UFC record setting average of just 0.56 SSA/min along with his 76% striking defense, elite wrestling, and undefeated record, it’s tough to pick Sandhagen to pull off the upset. So while it’s always possible that Sandhagen can land something clean to pull off a knockout win, Nurmagomedov will be our pick. An early submission is possible, but we like this to go the distance.

Our favorite bet here is “Nurmagomedov/Sandhagen FGTD” at -120.

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DFS Implications:

Nurmagomedov continues to score well in DFS every time he steps inside the Octagon, with DraftKings totals of 118, 114, 105, 105, and 112 in his five UFC fights. He’s shown the ability to finish opponents both on the mat and the feet, or score well through his wrestling even without a finish. Now he’s stepping into his first UFC five-round fight, which leaves him with the potential to put up an insane score with an additional two rounds to work with. While Sandhagen has shown improved offensive wrestling in his last couple of fights, 9 of the 12 UFC fighters who tried to take him down were successful. While Nurmagomedov’s combination of elite wrestling and high-level striking leave him with multiple ways to win this fight, it’s also a big step up in competition for him and he’s also never been past the third round, so there is still some uncertainty involved. Nevertheless, barring a poorly timed finish, we expect him to put up a big score if he wins and he’ll rightfully be the highest owned fighter on the card. The odds imply Nurmagomedov has a 74% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Sandhagen has averaged an impressive 109 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins, and the only time he failed to score at least 91 points was in a 2019 three-round decision over a slow-paced Raphael Assuncao. Sandhagen offers a combination of striking and wrestling that is perfect for DFS production, especially on DraftKings in fights where he relies more on his wrestling. However, while he dominated his last two opponents on the mat, this looks like a much tougher matchup for Sandhagen to find wrestling success. That should leave him more reliant on his striking to pull off the upset, and Nurmagomedov has been a tough guy to hit, as he averages just 0.56 SSA/min, the fewest in UFC history. In fairness, Nurmagomedov has spent tremendous amounts of time controlling his opponents on the mat, which plays a big role in that average. Nevertheless, that’s concerning for Sandhagen’s ability to put up a big striking total, and if he doesn’t have striking volume or wrestling to rely on, then he’ll likely need a finish to win and/or score well. While Nurmagomedov is undefeated, he did get dropped 30 seconds into his last fight, showing he’s far from indestructible. That at least leaves some hope for Sandhagen to find a finish, but this is a brutally tough matchup. However, at his cheap price tag, if Sandhagen does win it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups and we’ve even seen him be part of a fight stack in a losing effort in the past. The odds imply Sandhagen has a 26% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

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Jai Herbert UNDER 75.5 Pts

The Sheet

UFC Fight Night, Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov - Saturday, August 3rd

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #13

Sedriques Dumas

Denis Tiuliulin

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Fight #12

Jai Herbert

Rolando Bedoya

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Fight #11

Viktoriia Dudakova

Sam Hughes

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Fight #10

Guram Kutateladze

Jordan Vucenic

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Fight #9

Shamil Gaziev

Don'Tale Mayes

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Fight #8

Kaue Fernandes

Mohammad Yahya

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Fight #7

Azamat Murzakanov

Alonzo Menifield

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Fight #6

Joel Alvarez

Elves Brener

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Fight #5

Mackenzie Dern

Loopy Godinez

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Fight #4

Michael Chiesa

Tony Ferguson

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Fight #3

Deiveson Figueiredo

Marlon Vera

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Fight #2

Shara Magomedov

Michal Oleksiejczuk

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Fight #1

Umar Nurmagomedov

Cory Sandhagen

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