The Sheet

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #12

Assu Almabayev

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut on a 13 fight winning streak, Almabayev hasn't lost a fight since 2017, when he suffered both of his career losses in consecutive fights, with one of those coming against UFC fighter Tagir Ulanbekov. Two of his last three fights went the distance, with one of those being a close split decision. His last five and 14 of his last 15 fights have made it out of the first round, and when he does land finishes they typically come later on in fights.

Now 17-2 as a pro, Almabayev has three wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and six decision wins. He has one TKO loss and one split-decision defeat. Five of his last six finishes have come by submission and he only has one knockout since 2018.

Overall, Almabayev is primarily a grappler and looks to smother his opponents on the mat, while occasionally looking for submissions, typically by rear-naked choke. He doesn’t land much in the way of striking volume, but did start to get more active with his ground and pound in his last fight. Just keep in mind, that was against an experienced short notice opponent who only had four pro fights. Almabayev’s takedown accuracy has been impressive and once he gets his hands on you, you’re typically going down. However, that and his control time are the only things that really stood out with him and he’s been in a lot of slower paced smothering grappling matches. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to the level of competition at the UFC level and he’s definitely not a big guy at just 5’5”, but he has been fighting with Brave FC and M-1 before that, so he’s at least been in some legitimate organizations.

Ode Osbourne

8th UFC Fight (4-3)

Coming off a close/questionable split-decision win over Charles Johnson, Osbourne has now won three of his last four fights after starting out 1-2 in the UFC. After only landing one total takedown in his first six UFC fights, Osbourne took Johnson down three times on 10 attempts, while Johnson finished ahead in striking. Johnson notably took that fight on short notice and had to fly across the world from Thailand with a sinus infection just before it. Prior to that, Osbourne got knocked out in the first round by an aging Tyson Nam, after landing a first round knockout of his own against a terrible Zarrukh Adashev. Just before that, Osbourne won a really close decision over a debuting C.J. Vergara. While two of Osbourne’s last four fights ended in close decisions, his other 10 most recent matches all ended in the first round (6-4).

Now 12-5 as a pro, Osbourne has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted two more times, and has one decision loss. His last 15 fights have either ended in the first round (8-4) or gone the distance (3-1). His last four losses all ended in round one, while his lone decision loss occurred back in 2016 in his first trip to the judges. Both of Osbourne’s early wins in the UFC came against very low-level opponents and only two of his seven pre-UFC finishes came against opponents with winning records. Up until he moved down to 125 lb for his last five fights (3-2), Osbourne had competed at 135 lb (6-3) and 145 lb (3-0). He made his UFC debut at 135 lb, before moving up to 145 lb for a short notice matchup against a terrible Jerome Rivera, who Osbourne knocked out in 26 seconds. Osbourne then dropped all the way down to 125 lb, where he’s stayed since.

Overall, Osbourne hasn’t been especially impressive lately, with his only early wins in the UFC coming against terrible opponents in Jerome Rivera and Zarrukh Adashev. He’s looked a little less explosive since dropping down to 125 lb, but still has decent power and hand speed, at least early in fights. He also has a background in wrestling, although hasn’t relied on it much. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Osbourne has landed 5 of his 18 takedown attempts (27.8% accuracy), but three of those successful takedowns came in his last fight and he only landed one in his previous six matches. His opponents have only gotten him down on 3 of their 11 attempts (72.7% defense), but everyone who’s tried to take him down has landed one of their attempts. He hasn’t been very durable and part of that can be attributed to the fact that he keeps his chin high and his hands low. In a recent interview he said he just started running for the first time in his career, a novel idea that could help to improve his cardio.

Fight Prediction:

Osbourne will have a 2” height advantage and is two years older than the 29-year-old Almabayev.

Almabayev comes into every fight looking to grapple, and we really haven’t seen Osbourne defensive wrestling tested much in the UFC outside of his recent fight against Charles Johnson, who isn’t a great grappler. While Osbourne does have a wrestling background, he hasn’t shown us anything that says he’s exceptional on the mat. He’s been submitted twice in his career, both times in the first round, and going back to his DWCS fight, all three of the opponents who tried to take him down were successful. That’s not very encouraging for his chances of remaining upright, and his explosiveness seems to fade after the first round of fights. We like Almabayev’s chances of finding enough grappling success to win the fight, with the only other question being whether he can find a submission or if he grinds out a decision. With the pressure of making his UFC debut, it’s more likely he wins a decision and that will be our official pick.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +116.

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DFS Implications:

Almabayev’s grappling-heavy approach to fighting will typically score much better on DraftKings than FanDuel, and tends to accrue large amounts of control time, but not land many significant strikes. He puts up decent takedown numbers and started to open up more with his ground and pound in his last fight, but at times he’s been content with simply holding top position. He has decent submission skills and back takes, but isn’t some sort of jiu jitsu wizard. So we’re not very excited about playing him on FanDuel, where he looks to be a submission or bust play, but he can score well on DraftKings even in a decision. The odds imply Almabayev has a 63% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Osbourne has been a R1 or bust fighter throughout his career, but 10 of his last 12 fights have ended in the first five minutes. However, he only has two finishes in seven UFC appearances and those came against absolutely terrible opponents in Jerome Rivera and Zarrukh Adashev, who combined to go 1-7 in the UFC with five early losses. Osbourne finished each of them in 61 seconds or less, scoring 127 and 103 DraftKings points respectively. However, in his two decision wins, Osbourne scored just 70 and 69 DraftKings points, and both of those decisions were really close. So he hasn’t shown any ability to score well in decisions and all three of his UFC losses ended with him getting finished in the first round. That leaves him with a non-existent scoring floor and a shaky ceiling in fights that make it out of the first round. Now he’ll be facing an opponent who will be looking to take him down and control him, which will limit the number of opportunities that Osbourne has to land the finish he needs to score well. The odds imply Osbourne has a 37% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Sean Woodson

6th UFC Fight (3-1-1)

Woodson had originally been scheduled to face Steve Garcia, but Garcia dropped out and Jesse Butler was announced as the replacement on July 18th. However, Butler then wasn’t medically cleared and on July 31st Mairon Santos was announced to replace him. Then Santos ran into visa issues and on August 1st (Tuesday) Dennis Buzukja was announced as Woodson’s fourth opponent in the last couple of weeks.

Fortunate to escape his last fight with a draw, Woodson got dropped twice in the first round but was bailed out by an illegal knee thrown by Luis Saldana that gave Woodson some time to recover and cost Saldanaa a point. Both guys slowed down in the later rounds in a fight that took place at elevation in Salt Lake City, and the later rounds got sloppy. Woodson recently said he doesn't even remember the 2nd and 3rd rounds in the fight after getting hurt badly early and also said he was dealing with a bunch of personal things at the time that affected his performance. Prior to that, Woodson won two in a row after suffering his first career loss in a 2020 R3 submission against Julian Erosa, who took the fight on short notice. Woodson bounced back with a split-decision win over Youssef Zalal, before landing his only UFC finish in a late R1 TKO against a terrible Collin Anglin, who went 0-3 in the UFC and then lost another fight outside of the organization before being cut and allegedly retiring despite being just 30 years old. Woodson originally punched his ticket to the UFC with a R2 KO win on DWCS in 2019 against Terrance McKinney who was winning the fight up until Woodson landed a flying knee to knock him out. Woodson then won a decision in his October 2019 UFC debut against a suspect Kyle Bochniak, who entered the fight 2-4 in the UFC and was cut following his fifth loss.

Now 9-1-1 as a pro, Woodson has three wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. His only career loss was the 2020 third round submission against Julian Erosa. After landing back-to-back first round finishes against low-level opponents in his first two pro fights, Woodson has seen the second round in eight of his last nine matches, with seven of those making it to round three and six going the distance. Woodson’s first two MMA fights were at 180 lb and 185 lb respectively, before he dropped down to 155 lb for his third pro match and then all the way down to 145 lb after that.

Overall, Woodson is a good boxer, who’s insanely long for the 145 lb division. He had an extensive amateur boxing career and it shows in his fighting style. Most of his opponents are looking to get him to the mat, but he has a really solid 82.7% takedown defense and has only been taken down 9 times on 52 attempts between his five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance. He never attempted a takedown of his own in any of those fights. He doesn’t load up on his punches, but just consistently chips away at his opponents, averaging 5.56 SSL/min and 4.26 SSA/min. Now 31 years old, you have to imagine that cut down to 145 lb isn’t getting any easier for Woodson, and it’s possible that played a factor in him getting dropped twice in his last fight after not getting knocked down in any of his previous five matches.

Dennis Buzukja

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut on just four days’ notice, Buzukja was announced as the replacement to the replacement to the replacement on Tuesday night. He’s won seven straight fights after losing a decision to Melsik Baghdasaryan on DWCS in 2020. Buzukja then returned to the regional scene and won three straight fights before they brought him back onto DWCS in 2022. Buzukja won a low-volume decision that time around, but it wasn’t enough to get him a contract and he once again returned to the regional scene and won three more fights before finally getting the call up here. Three of his last five and six of his last nine fights have gone the distance, but he is coming off two straight finishes.

Now 11-2 as a pro, Buzukja has four KO/TKO wins, one submission, and six decision victories. All five of his finishes ended in under seven minutes, with four of those coming in round one. He’s never been finished himself, with both of his losses going the distance. Buzukja started his career at 155 lb before dropping down to 145 lb in his third pro fight.

Overall, Buzukja is a young 25-year-old fighter who trains at Serra-Longo Fight Team and seems to be making improvements over the last few years. He was unimpressive in each of his two DWCS matches, but didn’t look as bad the second time around. He then looked better in his last two fights, although he also wasn’t facing the toughest of competition as those two opponents came in with records of 7-7 and 6-4-1. Buzukja looks decently well rounded, but doesn’t really stand out anywhere. However, he has been durable and it says something that he’s never been finished and Melsik Baghdasaryan was unable to put him away. He’s a karate brown belt but will mix in some wrestling and his takedown defense has also held up well. In his two DWCS fights, Buzukja landed 3 of his 9 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 1 of their 14 attempts (92.9% defense). Buzukja fought just seven weeks ago, so he is making a pretty quick turnaround here as he steps into his short notice UFC debut.

Fight Prediction:

Woodson will have a 5” height advantage and 8” reach advantage. He’s also six years older than the 25-year-old Buzukja.

Obviously this is a tough spot for Buzukja to succeed as he makes his debut on just four days’ notice against a UFC veteran, but Woodson looked terrible in his last fight and it will be interesting to see if he can bounce back here after nearly a year away. Woodson’s got good boxing and silly size for the Featherweight division, but nothing’s free and it’s possible the weight cut is starting to get to him and affecting his ability to take a punch. His recent form and time away adds at least some volatility to this matchup, although Buzukja hasn’t been overly impressive to this point in his career. Buzukja has been durable, however, and Woodson only has one early UFC win, so there’s a good chance this one goes the distance. Just keep in mind, we don’t know what Buzukja’s cardio will look like given the short nature of the fight, so it’s possible he gasses out in the later rounds and a finish presents itself for Woodson. With that said, Woodson has never landed a finish beyond the seven minute mark, and we’ll say he outlands his way to a decision win here.

Our favorite bet here is Woodson’s ML at -185.

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DFS Implications:

Woodson was extremely fortunate not to get knocked out in the first round of his last fight and now checks in as the most expensive fighter on this card as he takes on a short notice replacement who’s making his UFC debut. While that’s generally a good spot to target in DFS, Buzukja has never been finished in his career and Woodson is a one-dimensional striker who has never attempted a takedown and only has one UFC finish. That makes it tougher for him to return value at his expensive price tag, which is why he projects to be so low owned. He only scored 61 and 82 DraftKings points respectively in his two decision wins, but put up 122 points in a late R1 TKO in his lone UFC finish. So he has shown some upside, but that win came against a terrible opponent who has lost four straight fights and probably never should have been in there. Woodson is facing a more durable opponent here, so it’s really just the short notice nature of this matchup combined with his low ownership that makes Woodson an appealing tournament play. It’s hard to see him scoring well in a decision, so Woodson will be a KO or bust option who could still get priced out of winning lineups even if he does land a finish. The odds imply Woodson has a 63% chance to win.

Buzukja hasn’t done much to impress and he failed to secure a contract in two appearances on DWCS, both of which went the distance (1-1). He has shown some signs of improvement, but his recent two finishes also came against a lower level of competition so it’s entirely possible they were just a mirage. Nevertheless, Buzukja is still just 25 years old and has a good team around him at Serra-Longo Fight Team, so he should be continuing to improve. That gives a sliver of hope that he could come out and look better than he has in the past, and Woodson did nearly get knocked out in the first round of his last fight, which was nearly a year ago. It’s always possible Woodson looks bad again here and Buzukja can catch him with something early, but we also have concerns with Buzukja’s cardio after he just stepped into this matchup on Tuesday night. That leaves him as a long shot to pull off the upset and we expect Woodson to outpace him in the striking exchanges, making it tougher for Buzukja to get his hand raised in a decision. In the end, Buzukja is basically a low owned lottery ticket in DFS and our expectations for him are pretty low, just like his ownership. The odds imply Buzukja has a 37% chance to win.

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Fight #10

Jake Hadley

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Hadley had originally been scheduled to face Tagir Ulanbekov, but Ulanbekov was part of the Russian wave of dropouts and Durden was announced as the replacement on July 12th, 24 days before the event.

Entering his fourth Octagon appearance, Hadley has finished his last two opponents in under eight minutes, after suffering the first loss of his career in a wrestling-heavy decision in his May 2022 UFC debut against grappling ace Allan Nascimento. Hadley bounced back with a second round submission win over Carlos Candelario in a high-volume fight. That was the first time anybody had ever finished Candelario, who was coming off a decision loss in his debut against Tatsuro Taira. Hadley impressively landed 90 significant strikes in a fight that only lasted a round and a half, and never even attempted a takedown in the fight before locking up a triangle choke after Candelario took him down. Hadley followed that up with a 61 second R1 TKO win over Malcolm Gordon, who Hadley dropped with a nice body shot and then finished with ground and pound as Gordon immediately covered up. Leading up to his debut loss, Hadley locked up a second round submission on DWCS in 2021, and his last three wins have all come in under nine minutes.

Now 10-1 as a pro, Hadley has three TKO wins, five submissions, and two decision victories. All three of his TKO wins occurred in the first round, as did his first two career submission victories. However, his last three submission wins all came in the later rounds, with his last two both ending in round two. Both of his career decision victories occurred in five-round title fights—one for the EFC Flyweight belt and the other for the Cage Warriors Flyweight title. His only career loss came in a three-round decision in his UFC debut. Prior to his recent R1 TKO win, Hadley had seen the second round in four straight fights.

Overall, Hadley is a young, well-rounded English fighter and a former Cage Warriors champion. He’s still just 26 years old and only turned pro in 2018, so he’s still relatively early in his career. While he came into the UFC as more of a grappler, his striking has looked pretty crisp in his last couple of fights, where he landed a combined 100 significant strikes in just eight minutes and 40 seconds of action (11.54 SSL/min). Because he got controlled for nine and half minutes in his debut, his career average of just 4.21 SSL/min doesn’t accurately represent the pace he can set when given the opportunity. He’s just a BJJ purple belt, but has an active guard off his back as well as solid top pressure and quickly threw up a triangle after getting taken down in his second most recent win. He tends to leave his liver exposed in striking exchanges as he raises his right elbow to defend shot, which will catch up with him once someone times a body shot right. He also stands very upright, which makes it tougher to defend takedowns, and between his three UFC fights and his DWCS match, he’s been taken down five times on eight attempts (37.5% defense). He only attempted one takedown of his own in those matches, which he landed on DWCS, and he’s yet to attempt a takedown in a UFC fight. Considering his age, we should be seeing improvements from Hadley between every fight, so it will be interesting to see how he looks here.

Cody Durden

8th UFC Fight (4-2-1)

Durden is filling in on three and a half weeks’ notice, which is slightly concerning for him considering he already has cardio concerns. With that said, he’s won three straight fights and the last two of those both went the distance. The most recent of those decisions came against Charles Johnson, who Durden took down 11 times on 18 attempts with nine and a half minutes of control time. That fight was very similar to Durden’s previous decision win, where he landed 4 of his 8 takedown attempts with 12 and a half minutes of control time against UFC newcomer Carlos Mota. Just before that, Durden landed a 68 second TKO against J.P. Buys, who’s 0-3 in the UFC. Durden’s only loss in his last five fights was a 58 second submission against a debuting Muhammad Mokaev. That came just after Durden won another wrestling-heavy decision, that time against Aoriqileng, who Durden took down five times on 10 attempts with over five and a half minutes of control time. While Durden has impressively gone 4-1 in his last five fights, he started out 0-1-1 in the UFC, with a draw against Chris Gutierrez in his 2020 debut followed by a R1 submission loss to Jimmy Flick via Flying Triangle in his next fight.

Now 15-4-1 as a pro, Durden has six wins by KO/TKO, five more by submission, and four decision victories. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted in three of his four losses and also has one decision defeat. All three of his submission losses ended in the first two rounds, with his last two both coming in the first three and a half minutes of fights. Only 7 of his 20 pro fights have seen a third round, but four of his seven UFC fights have gone the distance. Nine of Durden’s 11 finishes occurred in the first round, while he also has one in each of the later rounds. His UFC debut took place at 135 lb before Durden dropped down to 125 lb, where he’s stayed since. He mostly competed at 135 lb before he joined the UFC, losing his only pre-UFC 125 lb fight in a 2017 decision, leaving him just 4-3 at 125 lb in his career, with four of those fights going the distance (3-1) and three ending in round one (1-2).

Overall, Durden is a former state champion high school wrestler who relies heavily on his wrestling, but did show the ability to find a finish with his striking alone against a terrible J.P. Buys. Durden has been prone to getting submitted and hasn’t shown the ability to escape chokes once they’re locked in. In his seven UFC fights, he’s landed 25 takedowns on 52 attempts (48.1% accuracy), while getting taken down twice himself on seven opponent attempts (71.4% defense). Durden tends to fatigue the longer fights go, but has shown the ability to continue to wrestle even when he’s visibly tired. He doesn’t land much striking volume, averaging just 3.27 SSL/min, and has only topped 36 significant strikes landed in two of his seven UFC fights.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’7”, but Hadley will have a 3” reach advantage and is six years younger than the 32-year-old Durden.

This will be a tough test for Durden, as Hadley is also a grappler and will have him outclassed on the feet. While we did see Allan Nascimento dominate Hadley on the mat, that’s where it becomes important to differentiate wrestlers from grapplers. Nascimento is a high-level grappler and BJJ black belt who can wrestle, while Durden is a pure wrestler with suspect grappling when it comes to defending submissions. Hadley has an active guard and has shown the ability to lock up submissions from a variety of positions and Durden will need to watchout for him throwing up triangles off his back. However, if Durden can avoid getting submitted it’s definitely possible he grinds out another decision win on the mat, but that appears to be his only likely path to victory. Hadley has the ability to knock him out, submit him, or possibly even out wrestle him, although we’ve yet to see Hadley even attempt a takedown in the UFC, despite having a grappling background. We like Hadley’s chances of finding a finish here, most likely by submission. Durden has been prone to getting submitted early in fights, and also has sort of suspect cardio which could increase the chances of him getting finished late if the fight makes it that long. Regardless of when it comes, give us Hadley by submission in this one.

Our favorite bet here is “Hadley ITD” at +120 .

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DFS Implications:

Hadley has landed back-to-back finishes that were good for 105 and 109 DraftKings points respectively. He averaged a blistering 11.54 SSL/min in those wins and has shown the ability to quickly rack up strikes as he hunts for finishes. Despite his grappling background, he’s yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC, but did lock up a submission in his second most recent win. Durden typically comes in with a very wrestling-heavy approach, which will make it tougher for Hadley to put up a big striking total, but should provide ample opportunity for him to look for submissions during those exchanges. Hadley’s 37% takedown defense is somewhat concerning, but Durden has been pretty prone to getting submitted and every takedown attempt from Durden will be a chance for Hadley to try and lock up a defensive submission. Just keep in mind, submitting someone off your back generally doesn’t translate to huge DFS scores unless it comes in the first 60 seconds. So at Hadley’s somewhat expensive price tag he could win by first round submission and still get left out of winning tournament lineups. However, this also has the potential to play out as a back and forth wrestling match and if Hadley can secure some reversals and really fill up the stats sheet then we could see him really go off. So he has a wide range of potential scoring outcomes and the upside is still there. His lower ownership adds to his tournament appeal and if things break right for Hadley in this spot he could be a key piece in winning lineups. The odds imply Hadley has a 64% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Durden has averaged 105 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, despite three of those going the distance. He scored a slate-breaking 129 points in his most recent victory, as he landed a career best 11 takedowns, more than doubling his previous high. His wrestling-heavy approach is better suited to the DraftKings scoring system when he’s unable to find a finish, but anytime you can get double-digit takedown upside it will be useful on both sites. Just keep in mind, his previous two decision wins were good for 86 and 93 DraftKings points, so he’s not putting up massive scores in all of his wins. Nevertheless, at his cheap price tag any wrestling-heavy decision victory could be useful on DraftKings, whereas he’ll be more reliant on either landing a finish or performance similar to his last one on FanDuel. Hadley looks like a tough matchup for Durden, as he’s a well-rounded fighter with a grappling background and will threaten submissions off his back and have Durden outclassed on the feet. Durden has been prone to getting submitted in the past and he’ll need to remain completely focussed for 15 straight minutes to avoid getting finished. That makes him a dicey play with an uncertain floor, but if he does pull off the upset he’ll likely end up in winning DraftKings lineups. The odds imply Durden has a 36% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Billy Quarantillo

9th UFC Fight (5-3)

Continuing to trade wins and losses over his last six fights, Quarantillo is less than four months removed from getting knocked out by Edson Barboza, who landed a perfect knee as Quarantillo shot in for a takedown midway through the first round. Prior to that, Quarantillo landed a second round TKO win over Alexander Hernandez, who was dropping down to 145 lb for the first time in the UFC. Quarantillo lost the first round on all three scorecards in that fight, before Hernandez gassed out in round two and Quarantillo took over and finished him late in the round. Looking back one fight further, Quarantillo lost an insanely high-volume decision to Shane Burgos, where Burgos finished ahead 193-164 in significant strikes and 232-196 in total strikes, while Quarantillo failed to land any of his 14 takedown attempts. Burgos did a great job of chewing up Quarantillo’s lead leg, landing 28 leg strikes in the match, which left Quarantillo extremely compromised late in the fight. Quarantillo’s only other win in his last five fights was a grappling-heavy 2021 R3 TKO against a striker in Gabriel Benitez, who has no answers for Quarantillo on the mat. Quarantillo originally tried to crack the UFC roster through The Ultimate Fighter in 2015, but lost in his second fight on the show and was forced to return to the regional scene, before going on DWCS in 2019 and finishing Kamuela Kirk in the third round.

Now 17-5 as a pro, Quarantillo has eight wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and four decision victories. Four of his five submission wins occurred in his first six pro fights and eight of his last nine finishes have come by KO/TKO. His only submission win since 2014 came in his 2019 UFC debut against a terrible Jacob Kilburn. His last six and 10 of his last 11 finishes have occurred in the later rounds. Looking at this entire career, he has three first round finishes, six in round two, and four in round three. While he’s never been submitted, he’s been knocked out twice in the first round and has three decision losses. Leading up to his recent R1 KO loss, he had seen the second round in nine straight fights, but only three of those made it to the judges. Quarantillo started his career fighting between 150-160 lb and then went back and forth between Lightweight and Featherweight for a while, but has remained at 145 lb since 2019.

Overall, Quarantillo is a super uptempo fighter who does a great job of weaponizing his cardio. He’s generally looking to get fights to the ground, where he can attack opponents with relentless ground and pound and also look for an occasional submission, as he’s a BJJ black belt. He averages 7.86 SSL/min and 5.79 SSA/min, while also adding 6.6 TDL/15 min. Between his eight UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Quarantillo has landed 10 takedowns on 43 attempts (23.3% accuracy), while he’s been taken down on 14 of 34 opponent attempts (58.8% defense). He’s won all five of the UFC fights where he landed a takedown, while he failed to land any of his 19 attempts in his three UFC losses. While Quarantillo won’t blow anyone away with his striking or submission skills, his nonstop motor consistently tests opponents’ cardio, which results in so many late round finishes. All of his UFC wins have come against opponents with bad cardio and/or grappling, which makes this next matchup a tricky one for Quarantillo, as he squares off against a grappler with good cardio. Quarantillo acknowledged that in a recent interview and said he's not expecting to be able to just push a crazy pace and wear Jackson out the way he's done to opponents in the past, which leaves you wondering what exactly his approach will be then.

Damon Jackson

11th UFC Fight (5-3-1, NC)

Jackson recently had a four-fight winning streak snapped in a violent second round walk-off knockout at the hands of Dan Ige, who was coming off three straight losses. Jackson recently revealed that he fought both that fight and the one before it with a torn pec, which helps to explain why he didn’t look to wrestle much against Ige. That injury was disguised in his previous win with a quick finish, as he landed a 69 second R1 TKO against Pat Sabatini, who was coming off six straight wins. That was Jackson’s first KO/TKO win since 2018 and only his second since 2013, as he’s primarily known for his submissions. Jackson has gone 6-2 in his last eight matches, with his only other loss over that stretch ending in another violent knockout, that time against Ilia Topuria in the first round of a 2020 fight. Jackson really has a knack for losing in dramatic fashion, with his third most recent loss ending 10 seconds into the first round of a 2019 PFL fight when he ate a flying knee to start the fight. He also got knocked out by a suspect Kevin Aguilar in 2017 and hit with a reverse bulldog choke by Yancy Medeiros in 2014. That’s not even counting a 2015 first round submission loss that was later overturned to a No Contest.

Jackson originally joined the UFC in 2014 and did everything but win in his first three fights, notching a 0-1-1, NC record before getting cut following a 2016 draw. After getting dropped by the organization, Jackson fought 10 times outside of the UFC from 2016 to 2020, going 8-2 before getting called back up. In his September 2020 return to the organization, nearly five years after being released, Jackson pulled off the short notice upset in a comeback win against Mirsad Bektic. In a fight he was losing badly, Jackson landed a R3 guillotine to steal the victory and notch his first UFC win. He then got knocked out by Topuria, but bounced back with a decision win over Charles Rosa, a second round submission victory over Kamuela Kirk, and then another decision win over a debuting Dan Argueta, leading up to his first round TKO over Sabatini.

Now 22-5-1 as a pro, Jackson has four wins by KO/TKO, 15 submissions, and three decision victories. Three of his four knockout wins ended in round one, with the other occurring 33 seconds into round two. Of his 15 submissions, six ended in round one, eight came in round two, and one occurred in round three. Jackson has been finished in all five of his career losses, with four knockouts and one submission. He would have two submission losses, but a 2015 R1 submission defeat was later overturned to a No Contest when his opponent tested positive for a banned diuretic. Jackson’s only official submission loss came in his 2014 UFC debut against a striker in Yancy Medeiros. Fourteen of his last 16 fights have ended early and he’s only been to four decisions in 29 pro fights (3-0-1). Jackson started his career at 155 lb before dropping down to 145 lb in 2013.

Overall, Jackson is primarily a submission threat but has shown some improvements to his striking. He’s known for his cardio and generally does a good job of wearing down his opponents, although we saw him slow down late in his fight against Dan Argueta. His biggest weakness has been his chin and his last four losses all ended in highlight knockouts. In his 10 UFC fights, Jackson has landed 14 of his 36 takedown attempts (38.9% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 13 of their 22 attempts (40.9% defense). In his five UFC fights where he landed a takedown, he’s gone 4-0 plus a No Contest that was originally a loss, while he’s gone 1-3-1 in fights where he failed to land a takedown. Six of his opponents have tried to take him down, with five of them being successful, but Jackson still went 3-1-1 in fights where he gave up a takedown. Jackson only averages 2.78 SSL/min and 2.92 SSA/min and he’s never landed more than 44 significant strikes or absorbed more than 65 in a UFC fight. Jackson talked about how he just built a new house and opened up a new gym, in what sounds like an extension of Fortis MMA, so clearly he’s been busy lately with things outside of his own personal development as a fighter.

Fight Prediction:

Jackson will have a 1” height and reach advantage.

This is a really interesting matchup as Jackson appears mostly equipped to handle the wrestling and uptempo pace of Quarantillo. However, Quarantillo has acknowledged as much, so we’re curious to see what his approach will be. While Jackson is a dangerous grappler, he’s been pretty chinny throughout his career, although Quarantillo is known for his volume and not his power. Both guys are coming off violent knockout losses, so it’s possible one or both of them come in with a more conservative approach than what we’re used to seeing from them, but we’d be surprised if this fight was a dud. Quarantillo is normally eager to get fights to the ground, but that may not be the case here, and we won’t be surprised if Quarantillo opts to keep the fight standing. However, that could open up opportunities for Jackson to look for his own takedowns, and neither one of these two have a very good takedown defense (58% vs. 40%). Quarantillo was notably taken down seven times by Gavin Tucker, who easily defeated Quarantillo in a unanimous 30-27 decision. It’s possible Jackson can find similar wrestling success and also grind out a decision, and he’s notably never lost with the judges while Quarantillo has dropped the last two decisions he’s been to. Jackson is clearly a submission threat as well, although Quarantillo is a BJJ black belt and has never been submitted. Ultimately this fight could go a lot of ways and we’re fascinated to see it play out. If it ends early it will likely be from a Jackson submission or a Quarantillo knockout. If it goes the distance, Quarantillo should land more striking volume, so Jackson will need to control the wrestling exchanges to get his hand raised. While it’s a tough one to predict, we’ll say it ends in either a Quarantillo TKO or a Jackson decision, and forced to choose we’ll lean towards the Quarantillo TKO win.

Our favorite bet here is “Quarantillo R2 or R3 KO” at +430.

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DFS Implications:

Quarantillo continues to put up huge scores when he wins, as he’s averaged 118 DraftKings points in his five UFC victories, with three scores of 125 or more. However, the field is acutely aware of that and we consistently see Quarantillo very highly owned, with his DraftKings ownership in his last five fights checking in at 47%, 42%, 35%, 41%, and 50%. While four of Quarantillo’s five UFC wins came by late round finish, he only scored 85 DraftKings points in his lone decision victory, showing that it’s at least possible for him to fail to score well in fights that go the distance. He also lost the last two decisions he’s been to and is just 2-3 in his last five fights. He’s coming off a knockout loss to Edson Barboza and is now facing another tough test in Damon Jackson, who’s more equipped than most of Quarantillo’s past opponents to handle his grappling and high pace. That could very well result in Quarantillo looking for far fewer takedowns and relying entirely on his striking, although he showed against Shane Burgos he can put up huge striking totals even in pure striking battles. So there are multiple ways for Quarantillo to score well and Jackson has been finished in all five of his pro losses. Just keep in mind, it will be much tougher to create unique tournament lineups that include Quarantillo on this smaller slate. That makes him a more interesting low-risk play. The odds imply Quarantillo has a 61% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.

Jackson has averaged 92 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, scoring 101 or more in three of his last four. He’s been prone to getting knocked out, so it’s no surprise that he’s generally looking to grapple. His last performance was a real head scratcher at the time as he barely looked to get Dan Ige to the mat, but he has since revealed that he was fighting with a torn pec, which really limited his wrestling. So clearly he’s willing to step inside the Octagon even if he’s severely compromised, which is frustrating if you’re backing him. He claims to be at full health now, but surely he wouldn’t tell us even if he wasn’t. Assuming he is good to go, he should be looking to get back to his grappling and we’ve seen Quarantillo struggle with getting taken down in the past, which was most evident when Gavin Tucker took him down seven times and won a 30-27 decision. However, Quarantillo is a BJJ black belt and has never been submitted, so Jackson is less likely to find a finish. That leaves him more reliant on grinding out a wrestling-heavy decision, which would score well on DraftKings but not on FanDuel. The odds imply Jackson has a 39% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Jeremiah Wells

5th UFC Fight (4-0)

Fresh off a split decision win over Matthew Semelsberger, Wells got knocked down early in each of the first two rounds, but recovered each time and relied on his grappling to grind out a decision on the mat with six takedowns landed and over 11 minutes of control time. That was the first time Well made it past the 5:30 mark in a UFC fight, after he finished his previous two opponents in round one and landed a knockout 30 seconds into round two of his 2021 UFC debut against Warlley Alves. He also finished his last two opponents before joining the UFC in the first two rounds and Wells is an explosive finisher who’s dangerous both on the feet and the mat. The last time he lost a fight was in a 2019 five-round decision for the CES Welterweight belt. He bounced back with a 22 second R1 knockout and followed it up with a second round submission win for that same belt after the previous winner vacated it, leading up to his short notice UFC debut where he knocked out longtime UFC veteran Warlley Alves.

Now 12-2-1 as a pro, Wells has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. He’s never been finished and both of his losses ended in five-round decisions. Four of his five knockout wins occurred in the first round, while the other came 30 seconds into round two. Conversely, three of his four submission wins occurred in round two, while the most recent came in the final 30 seconds of round one. While his last fight went the distance, his previous five all ended early.

Overall, Wells is a BJJ black belt and an explosive, well-rounded fighter, who’s shown the ability to both knock opponents out and submit them. In his four UFC fights, he’s landed 7 of his 18 takedown attempts (38.9% accuracy), while opponents failed to get him down on either of their two attempts. He trains at Renzo Gracie Philly with a ton of good UFC grapplers like Sean Brady, Pat Sabatini, and Andre Petroski, so he’s got a good team around him that will continue to push him. Wells is more focussed on quality than quantity when it comes to striking and generally doesn’t put up big striking totals, as he only averages just 2.96 SSL/min and 1.46 SSA/min. We had some questions surrounding Wells’ cardio going into his last fight, but he showed the ability to overcome adversity and go three hard rounds in that match, so despite getting hurt twice and being unable to land a finish that was actually an overall encouraging performance from him in terms of his future outlook.

Carlston Harris

5th UFC Fight (3-1)

Harris is coming off a smothering decision win over Jared Gooden, who was filling in on just three days’ notice, missed weight by 6 lb, and then got taken down five times by Harris and controlled for nearly 10 minutes. That win came 13 months after Harris got knocked out in the first round by an insanely dangerous Shavkat Rakhmonov. Prior to that, Harris landed a pair of first round finishes in his first two UFC fights. He made his UFC debut in May 2021 and landed a first round submission against Christian Aguilera, which he followed up with a first round knockout of Impa Kasanganay. Harris has won 10 of his last 12 fights, with seven of those wins and both of those losses ending early. While his last fight went the distance, his previous seven fights all ended in under eight minutes, with five being stopped in round one. Before joining the UFC, he notably won a pair of decisions over UFC fighters Michel Pereira and Wellington Turman.

Now 18-5 as a pro, Harris has five wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and eight decision victories. Nine of his 10 finishes came in the first two rounds, with six of those ending in round one, and his only third round finish was a 2012 TKO in his fourth pro fight. He’s been knocked out twice himself, both times in the first round, and has three decision losses.

Overall, Harris is primarily a grappler but does have an unorthodox striking game with sneaky power. He’s shown the ability to chain wrestle and stitch takedowns together, but generally doesn’t put up big striking numbers. He’s a threat to end fights on the mat both by submission and ground and pound, but loves to look for chokes. In his four UFC fights, Harris has landed 5 of his 16 takedown attempts (31.3% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on just 1 of their 4 attempts (75% defense). He hasn’t looked very durable, which is concerning as he takes on an explosive striker in this matchup.

Fight Prediction:

Harris will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

Both of these two are dangerous finishers, but Wells is the more explosive striker and has also had the more impressive wins in the UFC. Not that he can’t knock people out on the feet, but Harris is generally more reliant on his grappling and Wells is a BJJ black belt and a solid grappler in his own right. However, Wells hasn’t really had his defensive wrestling/grappling tested much in the UFC and we did see him get taken down four times by Bassil Hafez back in 2017 in the CFFC. Nevertheless, Harris looks far more vulnerable to being knocked out than Wells does to getting submitted, and we’d be surprised if Harris got Wells out of there early. There’s a chance Harris could control Wells long enough to secure a decision win, but we like Wells to land something clean early on and knock Harris out in the first round.

Our favorite bet here is Wells’ ML at -120.

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DFS Implications:

Wells has averaged 104 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins and scored 105 points even in his recent decision victory. Prior to that, he had finished all of his first three opponents in under six minutes, so it’s no surprise that he tends to score well. While he was able to score well in a grappling-heavy decision against a striker in his last match, now he’s facing a more well-rounded grappler and it would be surprising to see Wells find a ton of grappling success in this matchup. That greatly lowers his chances of scoring well in a decision, as he isn’t a high-volume striker and only averages 2.96 SSL/min. That leaves him reliant on landing a knockout to score well. While we like his chances of achieving that, he’s not as safe of a play as his score sheet might leave you to believe. In addition to that, Wells has historically been pretty highly owned in DFS and in his last two fights his DraftKings ownership came in at 39% and 37%. That lowers his tournament appeal some, as we expect him to be popular once again. It’s worth pointing out that he failed to end up in the winning DraftKings lineup in either of his last two finishes, and it’s entirely possible he gets outscored and left out once again even if he does get a finish here. Nevertheless, he’s got a good chance of landing a finish and putting up a solid score and it will be risky to fade him. The odds imply Wells has a 53% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Harris has averaged 106 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, and similar to Wells is coming off a grappling-heavy decision win where he scored 113 DraftKings points. Harris’ previous three UFC fights all ended in the first round (2-1) and he’s shown a ton of scoring potential for both himself and his opponents. His grappling-heavy approach to fighting allows him to score well even in decisions in DraftKings, but that recent 113 point performance only would have been good for 88 points on FanDuel. Harris’ three UFC wins all came against low-level opponents, two of whom have since been cut, while the other was previously cut but brought back on short notice to face Harris, and will undoubtedly be cut against in the near future. Harris’ one really legitimate opponent knocked him out in the first round and now he’ll be going against the second toughest test of his UFC career. Wells is a BJJ black belt in addition to a dangerous striker and this will be a tough matchup for Harris to find success. We’d be surprised to see Harris finish Wells, and while Wells did just get dropped twice in his last fight, no one has ever put him away early. That could leave Harris’ lone path to victory as grinding out a decision win, which could score well on DraftKings, but not FanDuel. His past scoring success and cheap price tag will drive his ownership up and the line has also moved in Harris’ favor. That lowers his tournament appeal and there’s a good chance Wells knocks Harris out in the first round, leaving Harris with literally a zero point floor. However, if he does pull off the upset, he’ll likely end up in the winning lineup, at least on DraftKings. The odds imply Harris has a 47% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Kyler Phillips

6th UFC Fight (4-1)

Phillips had been scheduled to face Said Nurmagomedov here, but Nurmagomedov dropped out and Barcelos was announced as the replacement on July 19th, 17 days before the event.

Coming off a six-month PED suspension after testing positive for Ostarine, it’s been 18 months since Phillips last competed. In his last fight, he landed a third round submission against Marcelo Rojo, who went 0-3 in the UFC with three early losses. Prior to that, Phillips lost a close majority decision against former Flyweight Raulian Paiva in what was Paiva’s first UFC fight up at Bantamweight. Phillips nearly finished Paiva in the first round, but then slowed down as the fight went on. To this point in his career, Phillips’ crowning achievement is a close 29-28 decision win over Song Yadong in 2021 just before his loss to Paiva. Yadong actually finished ahead in significant strikes 67-59 and in total strikes 89-69, but Phillips landed three takedowns on five attempts, while Yadong didn’t attempt any. Yadong doubled up Phillips’ striking in the third round, but Phillips won the first two rounds to take the decision. Phillips’ other three UFC wins were against opponents who have a combined 0-7 UFC record. Phillips originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2017, but despite landing a 46 second R1 KO victory he was not awarded a contract. He then lost a split decision to Victor Henry on the regional scene, before landing a R1 KO win in the LFA leading up to his 2020 UFC debut.

Now 10-2 as a pro, Phillips has five KO/TKO wins, two submissions, and three decision victories. The first five finishes of his career occurred in round one, but both of his finishes in the UFC came in the later rounds. He’s never been finished himself, with both of his pro losses ending in split/majority decisions.

Overall, Phillips is a lifelong martial artist who claims to have started training Jiu Jitsu at the Gracie Academy when he was just three years old. He now trains at the MMA Lab in Arizona with guys like Sean O’Malley and Mario Bautista. Between Phillips’ five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed 14 of his 28 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 4 of their 13 attempts (69.2% defense). He’s landed at least two takedowns in all five of his UFC fights, with three or more in each of his last three matches. Only two of his five UFC opponents tried to take him down, both landing two of their six attempts. Phillips also averages 5.50 SSL/min and generally does a good job of filling up the stat sheet with a well-rounded attack. His one area of weakness has been his cardio, and we’ve seen him slow down later in fights. Now he’s coming off a PED suspension, so it will be interesting to see how he looks in his return.

Raoni Barcelos

10th UFC Fight (6-3)

Seven months removed from the first knockout loss of his career, the 36-year-old Barcelos got violently put down late in the first round by a surging Umar Nurmagomedov. Barcelos was then scheduled to face Miles Johns in June, but Johns pulled out a couple of days before the fight, and Barcelos waited just over a month before jumping into this next matchup on relatively short notice. While Barcelos won a decision over Trevin Giles leading up to his loss to Nurmagomedov, he’s just 1-3 in his last four fights after starting out 16-1 in his career. His last five fights leading up to his recent KO loss all went the distance (3-2), after he finished his first three UFC opponents. The last of those early wins was in 2019 and it’s been over four years since Barcelos finished anybody. Prior to his recent round one KO loss, he had seen the second round in 11 straight fights with eight of those making it to round three, and seven going the distance.

Now 17-4 as a pro, Barcelos has eight wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and seven decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. After starting his career at 145 lb, Barcelos dropped down to 135 lb following his UFC debut, where he’s stayed since.

A BJJ black belt with a wrestling background, Barcelos is a well rounded fighter who has solid striking, wrestling, and submission skills. He tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on and all three of his early wins in the UFC occurred after the nine minute mark. He has an elite 93% takedown defense, and has only been taken down once in the UFC on 16 opponent attempts. That lone takedown occurred in his 2018 UFC debut, and he hasn’t been taken down in any of his last eight fights. On the other side of things, he’s landed 12 takedowns of his own on 29 attempts (41.4% accuracy). He both lands and absorbs a good amount of strikes, averaging 5.69 SSL/min and 5.06 SSA/min. It will be interesting to see how he looks after getting knocked unconscious earlier this year.

Fight Prediction:

Phillips will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being eight years younger than Barcelos.

We’ll be interested to see how each of these two guys look in this matchup, as Barcelos is coming off the first knockout loss of his career and stepping into this matchup on just two and a half weeks’ notice, while Phillips is coming off a PED suspension and lengthy layoff. That adds some uncertainty on both sides and makes this a more volatile matchup. It would make sense for Barcelos to look to wrestle here after getting violently knocked out on the feet in his last match. Both of the opponents who tried to take Phillips down landed two of their attempts, and Barcelos is a really solid grappler. That would also allow Barcelos to wear on Phillips’ gas tank, while neutralizing his flashy striking. Phillips does pose a submission threat, but Barcelos is a A BJJ black belt and should be able to remain out of danger. The one concern with a grappling-heavy game plan is if Barcelos will have the gas tank to successfully execute it considering he stepped in on pretty short notice. However, he had been preparing for another fight just a month ago, so we imagine he’s been staying ready since that last booking fell through. It’s possible we see both guys gas out late in this fight and they limp to a decision in a sloppy third round. While we don’t know exactly how Phillips will look following an 18-month layoff and a PED suspension, those are both red flags and he has the potential to look worse than in past fights. While Barcelos has some red flags of his own as he comes off the first knockout loss of his career at 36 years old, we’re taking a shot at the underdog in this spot and saying Barcelos grinds out a decision win.

Our favorite bet here is Barcelos’ ML at +180.

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DFS Implications:

Phillips has been a consistent albeit unspectacular DFS contributor, averaging 90 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, but failing to reach the century mark in any of those. Both of his UFC finishes occurred in the later rounds, with him scoring 99 and 98 points in those two victories. His two decision wins were good for 73 and 91 points and the only time he faced a really legitimate opponent was when he won a decision over Song Yadong and scored 73. Now he’ll face another tough opponent in Raoni Barcelos and it remains to be seen how Phillips will look after 18 months away and coming off of a PED suspension. Working in his favor, Barcelos did just get knocked out, but that was against a really dangerous Umar Nurmagomedov and that’s the only time Barcelos has been finished in the UFC. The uncertainty surrounding the current form of both of these fighters makes this a more volatile matchup, but Phillips has generally relied on filling up the stat sheet with a combination of striking and grappling to score well, and Barcelos has an elite 93% takedown defense and has only been taken down once in the UFC. That likely leaves Phillips reliant on landing an early knockout to score well. The odds imply Phillips has a 66% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Barcelos is averaging 99 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, scoring at least 96 points in five of those. He scored 101 and 96 points in his last two decision victories, showing the ability to score well even when he can’t find a finish. That’s important here considering Phillips has never been put away early in his career and it’s been over four years since Barcelos finished anybody. You never know how fighters will respond to getting knocked out cold for the first time, especially older fighters like the 36-year-old Barcelos. He’s also lost three of his last four fights, so it’s hard to be overly confident in him at this stage in his career. However, Phillips has red flags of his own and one or both of these two have the potential to look significantly worse than in past fights. That widens the potential range of outcomes all around, but at Barcelos’ cheap price tag there are more ways for him to end up in winning tournament lineups. Only two fighters have tried to take Phillips down in the UFC, and they both landed two of their six attempts. That’s encouraging for Barcelos’ chances of finding success on the mat, and he’s a former member of the Brazilian national wrestling team and a BJJ black belt who generally does a good job of mixing in his grappling with his striking. The main question mark with him is whether or not his chin is still there and Phillips is a dangerous finisher who will likely test that. That leaves Barcelos with an uncertain scoring floor but a high ceiling. The odds imply Barcelos has a 34% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Ignacio Bahamondes

5th UFC Fight (3-1)

Coming off a uneventful decision win over Trey Ogden, Bahamondes methodically picked Ogden apart for three straight rounds, outlanding him 99-42 in striking, while stuffing Ogden’s only takedown attempt. Bahamondes did a good job of mixing up his levels and landed 41 leg kicks in the fight. Ogden took that fight on short notice and looked like he just showed up for a paycheck with the goal of not getting knocked out. That’s Bahamondes’ only fight in the last 18 months, after he secured the only submission win of his career against Rongzhu in the third round of a February 2022 match. He also nearly locked up a guillotine attempt earlier in that match and appears to be adding some submission skills to his already dangerous striking. Prior to that win, Bahamondes landed a highlight reel spinning wheel kick KO against Roosevelt Roberts in the closing seconds of an August 2021 match. That’s the only time Roberts has been knocked out in his career, but it was just the cherry on top for Bahamondes, who landed nearly twice as many significant strikes as Roberts in the fight, while also stuffing all 12 of Roberts’ takedown attempts. Just before the pair of third round finishes, Bahamondes lost a split decision in his UFC debut against longtime UFC veteran John Makdessi, after landing a second round knockout on DWCS in 2020 to punch his ticket to the UFC. Bahamondes has won 10 of his last 12 fights, with the two losses both ending in decisions. Three of his last four wins ended in late round finishes and he’s seen the second round in eight straight fights, with seven of those making it to round three and five going the distance.

Now 14-4 as a pro, Bahamondes has nine wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. Four of his last five finishes came in the later round and his last first round finish was in 2018. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted twice and has two decision losses. Both of those submission losses ended in the first round over his first six pro fights. One of those was against Preston Parsons, who’s now in the UFC. While all three of his UFC fights have been at 155 lb, his previous two fights had both been up at 170 lb and he has bounced between the two weight classes throughout his career. Both of his submission losses occurred at 170 lb and he’s never been finished at 155 lb.

Overall, Bahamondes is really tall and long for the Lightweight division, standing 6’3” with a 75” reach (the same height as Jalin Turner). He loves to throw a ton of kicks to maximize his length and his last two KO/TKO wins both came by head kick KOs in the later rounds. He’s a dangerous striker and has shown improvements to his grappling from earlier in his career, both in his takedown defense and his submission abilities. With that said, this kid is a striker and we still expect him to struggle when facing legitimate wrestlers. However, he’s still just 25 years old and he’s at a stage in his career where we should be seeing major improvements between every fight. He was born into fighting, as his father owns a martial arts school in Chile, but Bahamondes came to the United States to pursue his UFC dream at just 16 years old. He’s landed 99 or more significant strikes in all four of his UFC fights and he averages an impressive 7.93 SSL/min (most on the slate) and 4.51 SSA/min. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s defended all but one of the 22 takedowns attempted on him (95.5% defense), while he failed to land any of his own four attempts, which all came in his UFC debut.

Ludovit Klein

7th UFC Fight (3-2-1)

Klein squeaked out a majority draw in his last fight after Jai Herbert was deducted a point in the third round for repeated, but debated low blows. That was Klein’s third straight fight to go the distance after he moved up from 145 lb to 155 lb in 2022 following a pair of losses at 145 lb. Klein won his 2020 UFC debut in dramatic fashion with a head kick KO of Shane Young in the first round, but then lost a close/questionable decision to Michael Trizano, before getting submitted by Nate Landwehr in the third round of his last 145 lb fight. Klein then moved up a weight class and won a pair of decisions over Devonte Smith and Mason Jones, leading up to his recent draw against Herbert. Klein nearly finished Jones early in round two when he dropped Jones to start the round, but was unable to hand Jones the first early loss of his career.

Now 19-4-1 as a pro, Klein has eight wins by KO, eight by submission, and three decision wins. His last seven finishes have all ended in knockouts, while all of his submission wins occurred earlier in his career, including six in his first six pro fights. Nine of his 16 finishes occurred in the first round and he generally is the most dangerous early on in fights. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2017), submitted twice (R1 2017 & R3 2021), and has one decision defeat. He’s only been past the second round eight times in 24 pro fights (5-2-1). The vast majority of Klein’s career was been spent down at 145 lb, although he missed weight by 4 lb for his 2020 short notice UFC debut, and then moved up to 155 lb for his last three fights.

Overall, Klein likes to methodically stalk his prey and time left head kicks, but he has struggled when pressured and hasn’t looked as dangerous since moving up to 155 lb. In his six UFC fights, he’s landed 6 takedowns on 15 attempts (40% accuracy), but hasn’t done much on the mat with any of those takedowns. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down by his opponents twice on 11 attempts (81.8% defense) and got submitted on the mat following one of those two. While we’ve been unimpressed by his grappling at the UFC level, he does have solid power with his striking. However, he doesn’t land much volume, averaging just 3.44 SSL/min, and he’s largely reliant on landing power shots to knock opponents out. His cardio hasn’t looked great, although it’s held up better since he moved up to 155 lb.

Fight Prediction:

Bahamondes will have a massive 8” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.

Both of these two throw violent kicks, with Klein being most well known for his head kicks. However, Bahamondes is so tall we’re not even sure Klein would be able to reach his head with a kick. It will be interesting to see how Klein deals with the size of Bahamondes in general and won’t be surprising to see him try to wrestle. However, Bahamondes has shown a near perfect 95% takedown defense since joining the UFC and has only been taken down once on 22 attempts by his opponents. And even if Klein can land a takedown or two, he hasn’t been very impressive on the mat since joining the UFC, even if he did have success going for submissions earlier in his career. The striking output isn’t even close between these two, with Bahamondes averaging 7.93 SSL/min to just 3.44 SSL/min for Klein. So we don’t see Klein outpacing Bahamondes in a striking battle, and he’ll likely be reliant on finishing him if he wants to pull off the upset, or at the very least causing significant damage that outweighs the projected striking discrepancy. We’ve seen Klein slow down late in fights, and Bahamondes has excelled at landing finishes later on in fights, which sets up pretty nicely for Bahamondes to land another late-round finish. Bahamondes is coming off the first submission win of his career, and apparently we can no longer call him a one-dimensional striker, but 90% of his career finishes have still ended in knockouts. Considering all three of Klein’s fights have gone the distance since he moved up to 155 lb, it won’t be shocking to see this one go the full 15 minutes as well, but we still like Bahamondes’ chances of landing another late finish. Regardless of how he gets it done, we like Bahamondes to get his hand raised.

Our favorite bet here is “Bahamondes R3 or DEC” at +110.

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DFS Implications:

Bahamondes is a high-volume striker who averages 7.93 SSL/min (most on the slate) and has a 95% takedown defense. However, he’s yet to land a takedown in the UFC and relies entirely on striking volume and finishes to score well. That makes him a better fit for the FanDuel scoring system compared to on DraftKings, and his two third-round finishes were good for 136 and 125 points on FanDuel but “just” 99 and 104 points on DraftKings. He lands enough volume to still put up solid scores even with late finishes, but at his expensive price tag he can still easily get priced out of winning DraftKings lineups in fights that make it past the second round. His lone decision wins only scored 70 DraftKings points and 79 points on FanDuel, and he would have to put up a massive striking total and/or land multiple knockdowns to score well with the judges. Working against him Klein only averages 3.67 SSA/min and is a more methodical striker who will also mix in takedowns. So this isn’t a great matchup for Bahamondes to land a ton of strikes and no one has ever landed more than 71 significant strikes against Klein. One thing that Bahamondes does have going for him in tournaments is that he’s never been more than 22% owned on DraftKings in any of his four UFC fights, and should fly mostly under the radar once again. The odds imply Bahamondes has a 66% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Klein has failed to top 76 DraftKings points in any of his last five UFC fights, with his last two decision wins scoring just 76 and 70 points. He hasn’t finished anybody since landing a R1 knockout in his 2020 UFC debut, and that took place down at 145 lb. He moved up to 155 lb for his last three fights and all of those ended in decisions. While he’s a powerful striker and also has eight submission wins on his record, he’s only 5’7” and will be giving up a ton of size in this matchup. That will likely make it tougher for him to close the distance and we could also see him struggle to land takedowns against the elite 95% takedown defense of Bahamondes. Despite Klein’s cheap price tag, that likely leaves him reliant on landing a finish to be useful. The odds imply Klein has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Tanner Boser

10th UFC Fight (4-5)

Boser recently made the move down from Heavyweight to Light Heavyweight and was welcomed to the new weight class by Ion Cutelaba, who finished Boser via TKO in just 125 seconds. Cutelaba floored Boser with a straight right hand and then swarmed him with punches before taking him to the mat and finishing him with strikes as Boser tried to return to his feet. Some may argue it was a quick stoppage as Boser was actively trying to get him, but Cutelaba had his arm trapped and was pummeling him with punches and it didn’t look like it was going to get any better for Boser anytime soon. Boser is now just 1-4 in his last five fights, with the one win coming in a R2 KO win over a washed up Ovince St. Preux, who’s lost three of his last four fights and is on the verge of retirement. Boser went 4-4 at Heavyweight in the UFC, with all four of those losses going the distance, but his last three wins all ending in knockouts in the first two rounds, with the last two ending in round two. His last two Heavyweight decision losses were both split, and he also had a close decision loss to Andrei Arlovski, so he wasn’t catching any breaks with the judges.

Now 20-10-1 as a pro, Boser has 11 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and seven decision victories. Five of Boser’s last seven knockouts interestingly came in round two and he only has one first round knockout victory since 2015. He’s also been knocked out twice himself, both times in the first round, and has eight decision losses. Boser spent almost his entire career at Heavyweight, but did have one fight down at Light Heavyweight in 2014, where he returned for his last match and will stay here.

Overall, Boser was always an undersized Heavyweight so it’s not shocking he finally decided to move down to Light Heavyweight after he lost three of his last four fights up at Heavyweight. However, in making that move it appears he forfeited the only edge he ever had, which was speed. At Light Heavyweight, everyone is just as fast, if not faster than him. So what’s his edge now? He’s a terrible grappler, he doesn’t have much power, and he looked less durable after cutting the extra weight. In his nine UFC fights, he’s never attempted a takedown, while his opponents have gotten him down on 7 of their 18 attempts (61.1% defense). His last four opponents all took him down at least once, and he’s consistently struggled against grapplers and has looked terrible off his back. We generally don’t see a ton of striking volume in his matches as he only averages 4.17 SSL/min and 2.47 SSA/min. The only time he’s ever landed more than 68 significant strikes was in his UFC debut when he landed 93 and the only time he’s ever absorbed more than 36 was in his second UFC fight when Ciryl Gane landed 65 against him. This will be the final fight on Boser’s contract, so it’s do or die for him, but it’s hard to imagine the UFC has much interest in keeping him around.

Aleksa Camur

4th UFC Fight (1-2)

Camur has been sidelined for the last 26 months and the last time he competed was in a June 2021 split-decision loss to Nicolae Negumereanu. Following that fight he said he had arm surgery to repair nerve damage that was causing muscle atrophy in his left hand. Prior to losing to Negumereanu, Camur suffered the first loss of his career in another decision, that time against William Knight. All three of Camur’s UFC fights have gone the distance, with his only win coming in a close decision in his 2020 UFC debut over Justin Ledet, who was in the midst of a four fight skid and retired later that year. Camur punched his ticket to the UFC with a 2019 R2 TKO win on DWCS over a terrible Fabio Cherant, who went on to go 0-3 in the UFC.

Now 6-2 as a pro, Camur has five wins by KO/TKO and one decision victory. Those five finishes all came in his first five pro fights against questionable competition, with three ending in one one and two in round two. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses going the distance.

Overall, Camur is a training partner of Stipe Miocic, which is probably the only reason he got on the UFC’s radar in the first place, and hasn’t done anything to impress us in his three UFC fights. He’s gotten controlled for extended periods of time and while he likes to throw spinning kicks and has okay boxing, he doesn’t appear to have a ton of power. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed just 2 of his 8 takedown attempts (25% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 5 of their 10 attempts (50% defense). Camur looks to get tired in the back half of all his matches, and while he’ll still let his hands go late in fights, it’s definitely not a good look for the judges. Just like Boser, this will be the final fight on Camur’s initial UFC contract and he’ll be fighting for his job.

Fight Prediction:

Boser will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while Camur is four years younger than the 31-year-old Boser.

We have no clue why this is on the main card and this is one of those fights where you wish you could bet against both fighters, as neither one of these two belong on the UFC roster. In fairness to them, Camur is still a young guy who could be making improvements and Boser is now at least one fight removed from dropping down a weight class and could look better in his second fight down at Light Heavyweight. It’s gotta be rough being Boser. Everyone was telling him for years he was too small for Heavyweight and should move down to Light Heavyweight, and then when he finally does he gets knocked out and looks terrible. Maybe he should have stayed at Heavyweight afterall. Meanwhile, Camur has done absolutely nothing to impress and is now coming off arm surgery and over a two year layoff. He doesn’t appear to be fully dedicated to fighting based on interviews we’ve seen and once Stipe goes it would make sense for Camur to go with him. Camur has attempted at least two takedowns in all three of his UFC fights, and based on how bad Boser has looked on the mat, he can probably find some wrestling success here. However, Camur hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat on the ground, so he’d likely just be looking to win minutes and land ground and pound with any takedowns he lands. That could be enough for him to get his hand raised, and Boser has an uncanny ability to lose close decisions. It’s impossible to be confident in either one of these two, as they’re both low-level fighters on two-fight losing streaks, but we’ll say Camur wins by split decision.

Our favorite bet here is Camur’s ML at +145.

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DFS Implications:

Boser has averaged just 96 DraftKings points in his three UFC knockout wins and only scored 67 points in his lone UFC decision victory. Only once has he topped 94 points, which unsurprisingly was in his lone first round finish, and his last two knockout wins both ended in round two and returned scores of just 94 and 87. He just dropped down to Light Heavyweight for his last fight and got knocked out in 125 seconds, scoring just two DraftKings points in the defeat. The only thing he had going for him at Heavyweight was his speed advantage, and that’s no longer there at Light Heavyweight. Now he’ll be fighting for his job against an opponent who’s never been finished, and when asked how he expected this fight to go in a recent interview, Boser responded by saying he thinks he’ll win a decision. None of that is encouraging for his scoring potential and the only thing he has going for him is that Camur isn’t any good either and hasn’t fought in over two years. At Boser’s somewhat expensive price tag, he looks like an unexciting R1 KO or bust option, who only has one first round finish in his last 23 fights, which was back in 2020. The odds imply Boser has a 59% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Camur hasn’t competed since June 2021 and hasn’t won a fight since he squeaked out a decision in his 2020 UFC debut against a terrible Justin Ledet. Camur only scored 69 DraftKings points in that win, and totaled just 44 and 30 points in his more recent two decision losses. All three of his UFC fights have gone the distance and he hasn’t shown anything in the way of scoring potential since joining the organization. He did knock out all five of his opponents before he joined the UFC, but he was facing a really low level of competition and those results need to be taken with a grain of salt. Working in his favor, Boser just dropped down from Heavyweight to Light Heavyweight and immediately got knocked out, so perhaps his chin won’t hold up in the new weight class. Boser is also terrible on the mat and Camur has attempted at least two takedowns in each of his three UFC fights, although has never landed more than one in a fight. Nevertheless, at Camur’s cheap price tag, if he can find some wrestling success it’s possible he could serve as a value play on DraftKings even in a decision win, but he’ll be more reliant on landing a knockout on FanDuel. Just keep in mind, he’s been totally unimpressive in all three of his UFC fights, is coming off arm surgery, and doesn’t appear to be fully committed to his job in the UFC as he steps into the final fight of his contract. The odds imply Camur has a 41% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Diego Lopes

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Despite losing a decision his recent short notice UFC debut, Lopes gave a good account of himself as he finished with four official submission attempts against the undefeated Movsar Evloev, nearly locking up an armbar in the first round and then a kimura, followed by a kneebar in round three. Lopes originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2021 against a really dangerous Joanderson Brito, and looked close to locking up a submission there as well, but ultimately lost a technical decision following a third round eye poke that he sustained and was forced to return to the regional scene. He then compounded the misstep when he lost a five-round split decision, but bounced back with a pair of late-round KO/TKO victories. Despite going just 2-3 in his last five fights, Lopes has won 9 of his last 12 fights, with seven of those wins coming early.

Now 21-6 as a pro, Lopes has eight wins by KO/TKO, 11 submissions, and two decision victories. He has a pair of TKO losses in the second round, and four decision defeats, but has only been finished once since 2014. Eight of his last nine fights made it out of the first round, with seven of those seeing a third round, and five ending in decisions. His last four wins all came early, while his last three losses all went the distance.

Overall, Lopes is a Brazilian grappler and BJJ black belt who’s comfortable looking for submissions off his back, but has also shown a willingness to stand and trade. At 5’11” he’s got good size for the 145 lb division, but doesn’t fight especially long and only has a 72” reach. He’s a patient striker on the feet, but has a decent lead left hook and knocked out his opponents in his last two wins, while failing to land a takedown in either of those fights. He trains at Lobo Gym and is Alexa Grasso’s jiu jitsu coach, so clearly he’s a respected grappler. Between his DWCS fight and his UFC debut, Lopes got taken down by his opponents 7 times on 11 attempts (36.4% defense), while failing to attempt any takedowns of his own. Lopes is content with playing jiu jitsu off his back, which can make it tougher for him to win decisions and explains why he’s only 2-4 in fights that have gone the distance.

Gavin Tucker

7th UFC Fight (4-2)

It’s been two and half years since Tucker last competed and he had shoulder surgery in March 2022. His last fight ended before it ever really got started as Dan Ige knocked him out with the first punch he landed in just 22 seconds. Prior to that, Tucker won a lopsided decision over Billy Quarantillo, where Tucker landed 7 of his 13 takedown attempts, stuffed all three of Quarantillo’s attempts, and finished ahead 106-84 in significant strikes as he cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win. Tucker joined the UFC back in 2017, but has been plagued by inactivity throughout his career, and only has six UFC fights in the last six and a half years. He nearly got beaten to death in the cage by Ricky Glenn in a 2017 decision loss and then took all of 2018 off. He came back in 2019 and won three straight fights, although nearly got finished by a terrible Justin Jaynes in the first round of a 2020 fight, just before his impressive win over Quarantillo. So Tucker has been a hot and cold fighter with inconsistent and infrequent performances.

Now 13-2 as a pro, Tucker has four wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and three decision wins. He’s coming off his first early loss in the quick KO against Ige, with his only other defeat going the distance. His first five UFC fights made it to the third round, with three of those going the distance.

Overall, Tucker is a well-rounded fighter and a BJJ black belt, but he’s now 37 years old and hasn’t competed since March 2021, so it’s hard to know how he’ll look as he comes back from shoulder surgery. He’s only 5’6” with a 66” reach so he’s small even at 145 lb. In his six UFC fights, he’s landed 14 of his 33 takedown attempts (42.4% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 6 of their 13 attempts (53.8% defense). We generally see him come in with a diverse mix of striking and grappling and he’s attempted double digit takedowns in two of his five fights that lasted longer than 22 seconds. He averages 4.39 SSL/min and 4.28 SSA/min and in his last two wins he landed 106 and 87 significant strikes respectively, as he’s shown the ability to fill up the stat sheet.

Fight Prediction:

Lopes will have a 5” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while also being nine years younger than the 37-year-old Tucker.

It’s hard to know what to expect out of Tucker here considering he hasn’t fought in two and half years, is coming off shoulder surgery, is now 37 years old, and got knocked out by a single punch in his last fight. He’s shown flashes of greatness in the past, but he’s also been completely steamrolled in other fights. If the guy who beat Billy Quarantillo shows up here, he should be able to outwork his way to a decision in. However, if Tucker’s lost a step, then we could see him get finished on either the feet or the mat. To his credit, he’s a BJJ black belt and has never been submitted, but he’s also never faced any high-level submission threats like Lopes. Our issue with Lopes is that he’s been a little too willing to defend takedowns with submission attempts and he spends time losing minutes on his back while he hunts for finishes. He also doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, but does have decent power, so he’s reliant on landing finishes to win fights. Tucker has only been finished once in his career, and while it’s entirely possible that he’s no longer the same fighter that he used to be, if he can avoid getting put away early we like his chances in a decision based on his output. We’d be surprised to see Tucker finish Lopes, so his lone path to victory will likely be a decision. Based on all of the red flags surrounding Tucker, we still lean towards Lopes landing a finish, but it could be a dicey fight.

Our favorite bet here is “Lopes ITD” at +120.

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DFS Implications:

Lopes is a BJJ black belt, a dangerous submission threat, and a decent striker. However, he doesn’t land a ton of striking volume or put up big takedown numbers, leaving him reliant on landing finishes to score well. Despite losing, he exceeded expectations in his recent short notice UFC debut against Movsar Evloev, as he nearly completed multiple submission attempts. However, he only scored 23 DraftKings points in the loss, confirming that his scoring potential is directly tied to his ability to finish opponents. Five of his last nine fights ended in decisions, with him losing the last three of those. However, at his reasonable price tag, Lopes doesn’t have to put up a huge score to end up in tournament winning lineups, but it does appear he’ll need a finish. The odds imply Lopes has a 61% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Tucker has averaged 94 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins and has shown a wide range of scoring potential in fights that go the distance. He only scored 58 DraftKings points in the first decision win of his UFC career, but put up a whopping 120 points in his last decision, where he landed a career best seven takedowns and 106 significant strikes against Billy Quarantillo. However, he followed that up by getting knocked out by Dan Ige in 22 seconds and now hasn’t fought in two and a half years after having shoulder surgery. Now 37 years old, we really have no idea how Tucker will look in his return, but if he can regain his past form he’ll have solid scoring upside. While Lopes is a dangerous submission threat who also has decent power in his hands, he can be a little too reliant on his jiu jitsu to defend takedown attempts. We saw that in his last fight, where Evloev landed four takedowns with eight and a half minutes of control time, quietly scoring 120 DraftKings points with the help of 183 total strikes landed. That leaves Tucker as an extremely volatile DFS option with a zero point floor but slate-breaking upside. Just keep in mind, we’ve generally seen fighters struggle after multi-year layoffs and it will have been 875 days since Tucker last competed when they lock the doors on Saturday. The odds imply Tucker has a 39% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Kennedy Nzechukwu

10th UFC Fight (6-3)

Nzechukwu has won three straight and six of his last eight fights, with his last five wins all ending in late round finishes. Ten of Nzechukwu’s last 12 fights have ended early, but eight of his nine UFC matches have made it to the later rounds, with the one exception being a 2021 R1 KO loss to Da Woon Jung, which is the only time Nzechukwu has ever been knocked out. The only time he’s required the judges in his last seven fights was a 2022 split-decision loss to Nicolae Negumereanu, which came just after his loss to Jung. Nzechukwu notched the first submission win of his career in his last fight, where he locked up a guillotine in the second round against the highly submittable Devin Clark, who’s been finished in seven of his eight pro losses, with four of those ending in submissions. To Clark’s credit, he had Nzechukwu hurt along the fence late in round one, but appeared to empty his gas tank pushing for the finish, à la Carlos Ulberg, and Nzechukwu quickly turned the tables on him. While he wasn’t quite able to put him away as the round ended, that momentum carried into round two and as Clark shot for a desperation takedown, Nzechukwu locked up a standing guillotine and choked Clark unconscious. Prior to that, Nzechukwu landed an early second round TKO against Ion Cutelaba following a third round TKO victory over Karl Roberson.

Now 12-3 as a pro, Nzechukwu has eight wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and three decision victories. Two of his eight KO wins occurred in the second round, four ended in round two, and two ended in round three. All of his UFC knockout victories occurred in the later rounds and that appears to be when he’s the most dangerous after he’s worn his opponents’ hands down with his face. On the other side of things, he’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has one decision loss. Nzechukwu made his pro debut at Heavyweight in 2016 before dropping down to Light Heavyweight in 2017, where he’s stayed since.

Overall, Nzechukwu is a big, durable fighter, who came into the UFC in 2019 incredibly green, but with all the physical tools needed to be successful, standing 6’5” with an 83” reach. He’s freakishly strong and while he was often overly cautious early on in his career, he’s shown improvements to his aggression and output in recent fights. He’s also improved his grappling, as he continues to round out his skillset. He’s still somewhat of a slow starter, which is why all of his finishes come in the later rounds, but he’s made that strategy work for him as he really puts it on his opponents in the later rounds once they start to slow down. Between his two DWCS appearances and his nine UFC fights, Nzechukwu has only been taken down on 13 of 65 opponent attempts (80% defense), while he’s landed 5 of his own 10 attempts (50% accuracy). All five of his successful takedowns came against an undersized kickboxer in Karl Roberson and Nzechukwu only attempted three unsuccessful takedowns in his other eight UFC fights.

Dustin Jacoby

12th UFC Fight (6-4-1)

Coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2015, Jacoby recently lost a unanimous 29-28 decision to Azamat Murzakanov. Jacoby got hurt in each of the first two rounds in that fight, but at least came back to win round three and make it to the scorecards. Prior to that, he lost a close/questionable split-decision against Khalil Rountree Jr, despite leading in striking in all three rounds and finishing ahead 120-85 in significant strikes with no other stats accrued by either fighter. Jacoby had gone 8-0-1 leading up to the pair of losses, with his third most recent MMA loss coming all the way back in 2015. However, he did step away from MMA following a pair of losses in 2014 and 2015 to focus on kickboxing, before returning to MMA in 2019 and working his way in the UFC with a 2020 decision win on DWCS. Prior to his recent two losses, Jacoby landed a first round walk off knockout against a dangerous Da Woon Jung, who had previously never been knocked out, but Jacoby’s other four most recent fights all went the distance (2-2). His last 11 matches have all either ended in first round knockout wins (3) or decisions (5-2-1). Jacoby originally joined the UFC in 2011 at just 23 years old, but was cut in 2012 after an 0-2 start. Following his departure, he went 6-3 in MMA fights outside of the UFC, and also competed in Glory Kickboxing for several years.

Now 18-7-1 as a pro, Jacoby has 11 wins by KO/TKO, one submission (R1 2011), and six decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (R2 2014), submitted twice (R3 2012 & R2 2015), and has four decision losses. Jacoby’s last 13 wins have all either ended in R1 KOs or decisions. The only time he’s landed a finish beyond the first round in his career was a 2011 R2 TKO by doctor stoppage. His other 17 wins have all ended in either decisions (6) or first round finishes (11). While he lost his last two decisions, he went 6-0-1 in his previous seven. In Jacoby’s initial stint with the UFC he fought at 185 lb, however, he moved up to 205 lb in 2014.

Overall, Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who averages a healthy 5.44 SSL/min, while absorbing 4.03/min. He’s never landed more than one takedown in a UFC fight and doesn’t really add a whole lot when it comes to grappling, but will occasionally look to mix it up with a takedown attempt. Between his 11 UFC fights and his DWCS match, he landed 4 of his 16 takedown attempts (25% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 17 of their 45 attempts (62.2% defense). Jacoby has never landed more than one takedown in a fight, and none of his last five opponents have gotten him down more than once. It’s been eight and a half years since anyone finished Jacoby and he’s looked pretty durable at 205 lb, although we did see him get dropped in his last fight. After landing two knockdowns in the first round of his first fight back with the UFC in 2020, Jacoby has only landed one in his last eight matches, and he only has one finish in the last two years.

Fight Prediction:

Nzechukwu will have a 2” height advantage and 7” reach advantage, while also being four years younger than the 35-year-old Jacoby.

This is an interesting matchup between two dangerous strikers. Jacoby is the more technical kickboxer, while Nzechukwu is the more powerful and physically imposing of the two. They’re both very durable, which increases the chances that this makes it to the judges, despite the fact that 10 of Nzechukwu’s last 12 fights have ended early. Nzechukwu has looked improved in his recent string of wins, while Jacoby has been in a slight slump, so it’s not shocking that Nzechukwu is the favorite. However, we still like Jacoby’s chances of relying on his kickboxing experience to outland Nzechukwu in a fight we expect to remain mostly standing. Either guy could look to mix in some takedown attempts, but Nzechukwu would be the more likely of the two to complete a takedown, and we saw him come in with a far more wrestling-heavy approach than what we’re use to when he faced a fellow former Glory kickboxer in Karl Roberson. However, Roberson is really a Middleweight and was massively undersized in that fight, while owning just a 42% takedown defense. We expect Jacoby’s 62% takedown defense to hold up better and he’s a true Light Heavyweight who’s much larger than Roberson. While both fighters are capable of finishing the other here, we like Jacoby to squeak out a close decision where the judges are forced to weigh volume versus damage once again.

Our favorite bet here is Jacoby’s ML at +140.

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DFS Implications:

Nzechukwu has finished three straight opponents and his last five UFC wins all ended early, with him averaging 95 DraftKings points in those five finishes. Prior to that, he scored just 50 DraftKings points in his lone UFC decision win and he also only scored 38 points in his one decision loss. So he hasn’t shown the ability to score well with the judges, but he does have a history of finishing opponents in the later rounds. That has limited his scoring ability to some extent, but really only in fights where he spent extended periods of time getting controlled. That was most evident in his early R3 TKO win over Danilo Marques, where Nzechukwu got controlled for nearly eight minutes in the first two rounds and then landed a knockout in the opening seconds of round three that was only good for 57 points. If we remove that outlier performance, Nzechukwu averaged 104 DraftKings points in his other four early wins, with a pretty consistent range of 92 to 113 points, with three scores clustered between 105 and 113. The 92 point score came in an early second round knockout where he again got controlled for three and a half minutes in the first round by a wrestler in Ion Cutelaba. Now he’ll face a striker in Jacoby, so we’re not expecting Nzechukwu to be controlled for much time in this matchup. With that said, Jacoby did recently say in an interview that he wished he had wrestled more early in his last fight, so who even knows anymore. Regardless, Nzechukwu will be reliant on finishing Jacoby to score well, and the last time anyone put Jacoby away early was in 2015. So it doesn’t look like a great spot for Nzechukwu to find the finish he needs to score well, and even if he does, there are ways he fails to crack tournament winning lineups in a poorly timed late-round finish. The DFS field has been all over the place on Nzechukwu, with his DraftKings ownership checking in anywhere from 15% to 41% in his last five fights, so it will be interesting to see how popular he is here. Despite landing three straight finishes, he only ended up in the winning DraftKings lineup in one of his last five matches. The odds imply Nzechukwu has a 59% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.

Jacoby consistently either finishes opponents in the first round or fights to decisions and only one of his 12 career early wins came beyond the opening five minutes. In his three UFC first round finishes, he averaged 110 DraftKings points, but in his three decision victories he averaged just 72 points. Four of his last five fights have gone the distance (2-2), and even in those two losses he scored 43 and 49 points on DraftKings. The only time he’s ever been finished in the UFC was in a 2012 R3 guillotine in his first stint with the organization when he was still fighting down at 185 lb. Since returning in 2020, his only two losses both went the distance and he’s been pretty durable, even if we did see him get dropped in his last match. While he’ll occasionally mix in takedowns, he’s never landed more than one in a fight and relies on his striking and landing knockouts to score well. At his cheaper price tag, it’s not impossible he could serve as a value play in a decision win here, but it would require a slate where very few dogs win and he more likely needs to knock Nzechukwu out to be useful. We’ve only seen Nzechukwu get knocked out once before, although that came in the first round against Da Woon Jung, who Jacoby then immediately knocked out in the first round in Jung’s next match. After losing two straight, we expect Jacoby to come in motivated to get a win, but you never know if that will mean he’ll be more aggressively looking for a knockout or if he’ll get more conservative and try to secure a decision win by any means necessary. We lean towards the latter, especially against an opponent like Nzechukwu who thrives landing late finishes after his opponents have emptied their gas tanks trying to put him away early. The odds imply Jacoby has a 41% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Tatiana Suarez

7th UFC Fight (6-0)

Suarez had been scheduled to face Virna Jandiroba here, but Jandiroba dropped out and Andrade was announced as the replacement on June 20th

After nearly four years away, Suarez recently returned to submit Montana De La Rosa in the second round of a February 2023 match. Suarez’s first five UFC fights were all at 115 lb, but she eased her way back into action with a fight up at 125 lb, before cutting back down to 115 lb for this next fight. Despite competing up a weight class, Suarez made it look easy against a fellow grappler in De La Rosa, as she took her down twice and controlled her for nearly six minutes in a fight that only lasted just under eight minutes. Prior to that, Suarez was initially sidelined due to a bulging disk in her neck, and then just as she was set to return in 2021 she completely shredded her knee. Suarez’s second most recent fight was a June 2019 decision win against Nina Nunes, where Suarez slowed down in the third round and showed some potential cardio concerns, but still won a unanimous 29-28 decision. However, just before that, she finished Carla Esparza via TKO in the third round of a 2018 match. Suarez made her UFC debut in 2016 and submitted Amanda Bobby Brundage in the first round to become The Ultimate Fighter champion in 2016. She then won a decision over Viviane Pereira, before submitting Alexa Grasso in the first round, leading up to her win against Esparza.

Now 9-0 as a pro, Suarez has two TKO victories, four submissions, and three decision wins. Both of her TKO victories occurred in the later rounds, while three of her submission wins ended in round one and the other came in round two. Her last three and four of her last five fights made it out of round one, with three of those seeing a third round and two going the distance. Suarez started her pro career at 125 lb, before dropping down to 115 lb when she went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016. All but one of her fights since 2016 have been at 115 lb.

Overall, Suarez grew up wrestling and won two bronze medals at the world championships in freestyle wrestling. She planned on going to the 2012 olympics, but that’s when her neck problems began and she was also diagnosed with cancer. After beating cancer, she shifted her sights to MMA, turning pro in 2014 and getting into the UFC just two years later. Suarez relies on her wrestling background to dominate opponents on the mat. In her six UFC fights, she’s landed 24 takedowns on 41 attempts (58.5% accuracy), with at least two takedowns in all of those matches and four or more in three of them. No one has ever gotten her down, although the only opponent to try was Esparza, who failed to land either of her two attempts. Suarez will now be making the cut back down to 115 lb for the first time since 2019, so she’ll be someone to monitor closely at weigh-ins.

Jessica Andrade

25th UFC Fight (15-9)

Looking to bounce back from two straight early losses, Andrade isn’t taking any time off and this will already be her fourth fight in 2023. Andrade won the first of those fights this year in a super high-volume dominant decision win over an aging Lauren Murphy, where Andrade landed the 7th most significant strikes in a UFC fight and the most for any female fighter, finishing ahead 231-100. Andrade then took a short notice fight against Erin Blanchfield and got submitted in the second round. Both of those fights were at 125 lb, but Andrade then dropped down to 115 lb for her last fight and got knocked out in the first round by decision grinder Yan Xiaonan. While Andrade’s last win went the distance, her previous five wins all ended early, with four of those being stopped in round one, and only two of her last 11 fights have made it to the judges. Prior to the win over Murphy, Andrade landed a pair of first round finishes with a standing arm-triangle choke against Amanda Lemos and a TKO against Cynthia Calvillo. While Andrade got finished by Xiaonan in her last match, her previous five losses came against elite opponents in Erin Blanchfield, Valentina Shevchenko, Rose Namajunas, Zhang Weili, and Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Now 24-11 as a pro, Andrade has nine wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and seven decision victories. All 17 of her early wins have ended in the first two rounds, with five of her knockouts and six of her submissions ending in round one, and her other four knockouts and two submissions ending in round two. Her last three and five of her last six early wins ended in the opening five minutes. Eight of her 11 career losses also ended in the first two rounds, with five TKOs and three submissions, while she also has three decision defeats. Two of her three submission losses came in 2015 when she was still fighting at 135 lb, with her other coming in her short notice loss to Erin Blanchfield. Andrade has won three of the last four decisions she’s been to, with the one loss being split against Rose Namajunas.

Andrade originally joined the UFC in 2013 and fought her first seven fights at 135 lb (4-3), before dropping all the way down to 115 lb in 2016. After going 7-1 in first eight fights at 115 lb and winning the Strawweight belt against Rose Namajunas in 2019, Andrade immediately relinquished the belt to Zhang Weili and then lost a decision to Namajunas. After suffering back-to-back losses for the first time in her career, Andrade moved up to 125 lb for the first time in 2020 and knocked out Katlyn Chookagian in the first round. That was enough to propel Andrade into a title fight against Valentina Shevchenko, but Andrade got dominated and finished on the mat in the second round. Andrade bounced back with a first round TKO win over Cynthia Calvillo and then dropped back down to 115 lb for one fight when she submitted Amanda Lemos in the first round of a five-round fight. However, Andrade immediately returned to 125 lb for her next two matches, where she won a decision over Lauren Murphy and then got submitted in the second round by Erin Blanchfield. That prompted her to return to 115 lb, where she got out in the first round by Yan Xiaonan. She’ll stay at 115 lb for this next fight. To recap, Andrade has gone 4-3 (57% Win Percentage) at 135 lb in the UFC, 3-2 (60% Win Percentage) at 125 lb, and 8-4 (67% Win Percentage) at 115 lb.

Overall, Andrade is an aggressive striker who constantly pushes forward looking to land fight ending shots and slam her opponents unconscious. She’s willing to take one (or 5) to land one (or 10), which has gotten her into trouble at times. She tends to keep her chin up as she lunges forward, which resulted in her getting knocked out in her last fight, just 91 days ago. She struggles the most with longer opponents who have good footwork and can counter her from distance, while avoiding the shots coming from Andrande. She averages 6.82 SSL/min and 5.40 SSA/min. Andrade is also a BJJ black belt and has a 73% career takedown defense and in her 17 fights since dropping down from 135 lb, we’ve actually seen that number rise a little as she’s only been taken down on 10 of 43 opponent attempts (76.7% defense). Over that same 17 fight stretch, Andrade has landed 26 takedowns of her own on 50 attempts (52% accuracy). However, she’s only landed one takedown in her last six fights, while she has only been taken down once in her last five matches.

Fight Prediction:

Suarez will have a 4” height and reach advantage, while Andrade is one year younger than the 32-year-old Suarez.

While Andrade is one of the most exciting fighters on the UFC roster, she’s an all offense fighter who struggles off her back. She’s looking to take part in striking battles and that’s not the fight Suarez will bring here, as she’ll be looking to take Andrade down from the start. It was alarming how quickly Andrade gave up her back to Blanchfield and if she does that again here Suarez will quickly wrap up her neck. Andrade likes to look for guillotines, which always gives her a slight chance at submitting opponents who want to take her down, but will more likely result in her ending up in a terrible spot on her back in this matchup. While we enjoy Andrade’s aggressive fighting style as much as anybody, we don’t see this going well for her and we expect Suarez to get her down and submit her in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in SUB” at +100.

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DFS Implications:

Suarez has never lost a fight and tends to dominate everyone she faces on the mat. She took nearly four years off prior to her last fight while she dealt with neck and knee injuries, but hit the ground running in her return and submitted a fellow grappler in the second round, despite fighting up a weight class. In her six UFC wins, Suarez has averaged a ridiculous 116 DraftKings points, scoring 99 or more in all of those and 115 or more in half of them. That hasn’t been lost on the field and Suarez was 44% owned in her last fight despite her four years away from action. She’ll now be dropping back down to 115 lb, which adds some uncertainty, as she hasn’t made that weight since 2019. She’s also facing a dangerous striker in Andrade, so a bad weight cut would spell trouble for Suarez if she comes in with a compromised chin. However, Andrade has looked bad off her back lately and once Suarez gets this fight to the mat it could be a wrap pretty quickly. That does create the potential for a hyper-efficient submission win that scores pretty well, but still results in Suarez being priced out of winning tournament lineups as the most expensive fighter on the card. Nevertheless, Suarez has a ton of scoring potential here and has shown a 157 point ceiling in the past. We saw Valentina Shevchenko score 139 points against Andrade in a wrestling-heavy R2 TKO two years ago and it’s possible we could see something similar from Suarez here. The odds imply Suarez has a 75% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.

Andrade has averaged a ridiculous 115 DraftKings points in her 15 UFC wins and has shown the ability to score well with or without a finish. She’s actually averaged more points (119) in her seven three-round UFC decision wins, compared to her eight early victories, where she averaged 113 DraftKings points. She scored 99 or more DraftKings points in 12 of her last 13 wins, with the one exception being a hyper-efficient first round submission victory that was only good for 92 points. She has the ability to go completely nuclear, as she scored 131 or more points in four of her last eight wins and holds the record for the most strikes ever landed in a women’s UFC fight, which she recently set in a three-round decision over Lauren Murphy this past January. That one-sided beatdown was good for 131 DraftKings points and 165 points on FanDuel. However, Andrade was finished in the first two rounds in both of her fights since then and now steps into another really tough matchup. There’s a high likelihood that Andrade gets taken down and submitted almost immediately in this fight, which leaves her with a zero point scoring floor. However, if she does somehow pull off the upset, then it likely means she finished Suarez. As the cheapest fighter on the card it’s hard to see Andrade getting left out of winning lineups in that scenario. The odds imply Andrade has a 25% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Cory Sandhagen

13th UFC Fight (9-3)

Sandhagen had been scheduled to fight Umar Nurmagomedov here, but Nurmagomedov withdrew (along with the rest of the Dagestan fighters) and Font was announced as the replacement 16 days out.

Fresh off a five-round split-decision win over Marlon Vera, Sandhagen came in with a surprisingly wrestling-heavy approach that easily secured him the first two rounds. However, he only landed one of his nine takedown attempts in the final three rounds, and despite Sandhagen finishing ahead in striking in every round of the fight, one of the judges surprisingly gave Vera the last three rounds, while the other two judges scored the fight 50-45 and 49-46 for Sandhagen. Prior to that, Sandhagen defeated Song Yadong in a post R4 TKO via doctor stoppage, where Sandhagen split Yadong open above his left eye early in the fight and it was surprising the fight didn’t get stopped sooner. Interestingly, two of the three judges had the fight even after four rounds, despite Sandhagen leading in strikes in all four rounds, and we’ve consistently seen judges look for ways not to score rounds for Sandhagen. Leading up to his recent two wins, he lost a pair of five-round decisions to Petr Yan and T.J. Dillashaw, with the latter being a questionable split decision that many people thought Sandhagen won.

Now 16-4 as a pro, Sandhagen has seven wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. All three of his career submission wins occurred in the first round, but two of those occurred in his first three pro fights and he’s only submitted once of his last 17 opponents (Mario Bautista in 2019). Seven of his last eight finishes ended in KO/TKOs. Three of his knockout wins occurred in round one, three more came in round two, and his 2022 R4 doctor stoppage TKO victory over Song Yadong is the only time he’s ever finished an opponent beyond the nine minute mark in a fight. He’s never been knocked out himself, with his only early loss coming in a R1 submission against Aljamain Sterling in 2020. His other three losses all went the distance. Sandhagen fought his first pro fight at 135 lb in 2015, but then moved up to 145 lb for his next eight matches from 2016 to 2018. Following his 2018 UFC debut at 145 lb, Sandhagen dropped back down to 135 lb where he’s stayed since.

This will be the 6th five-round fight of Sandhagen’s career and his 5th in a row. The first time he was scheduled to go five rounds was against Marlon Moreaes in October 2020 and Sandhagen landed a second round TKO. His next fight was only scheduled to go three rounds, which was when he knocked out Frankie Edgar in 28 seconds. He followed that up with a pair of five-round decision losses to T.J. Dillashaw and Petr Yan, leading up to a post R4 TKO win over Song Yadong. He then secured the first five-round decision win of his career in his recent win over Marlon Vera. So Sandhagen is 3-2 in five-round fights and arguably should be 4-1. He finished ahead in significant strikes in all three of the five-round decisions he’s been to, but still lost two of those.

Overall, Sandhagen is a high-volume striker who has never been outlanded in a UFC fight that lasted longer than 90 seconds, and averages 5.98 SSL/min and 3.90 SSA/min. In his 12 UFC fights, he’s landed just 9 of his 41 takedown attempts (21.9% accuracy), while he’s been taken down by his opponents 13 times on 37 attempts (64.9% defense). He’s looked for more takedowns than normal in his last two fights and 26 of his 41 career takedown attempts occurred in his last two matches. While Sandhagen isn’t the most efficient offensive wrestler, he’s really been looking to wrestle more lately so you have to imagine that’s something he’s been working on. He’s a BJJ brown belt and is a decent grappler on the mat who will go for all types of submissions off his back. He also trains at altitude in Colorado, which should be beneficial for his cardio in five-round fights.

Rob Font

16th UFC Fight (10-5)

Font had been scheduled to face Song Yadong in August, but Yadong dropped out and Font took advantage of that opportunity to fill in here after Nurmagomedov also dropped out.

Coming off an impressive R1 TKO win over Adrian Yanez, Font secured his first win since 2021 after he dropped a pair of five-round decisions to Marlon Vera and Jose Aldo. Font absorbed a ton of damage in those two losses, getting knocked down three times by Vera and twice by Aldo. Despite outlanding Vera 271-159 in significant strikes, Font only won a single round in that fight and barely survived to see the judges. Similarly, he outlanded Aldo 149-86 in significant strikes, but lost every single round on two of the three judges’ scorecards. Prior to those two losses, Font won four straight fights, with the most recent of those wins coming in a five-round decision over Cody Garbrandt, where Font finished ahead 176-63 in significant strikes, while not getting knocked down.

Now 20-6 as a pro, Font has nine KO/TKO victories, four submissions, and seven decision wins. Twelve of his 13 early wins occurred in the first two rounds, with nine in round one and three in round two. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted once (R1 2017), with his other five losses all going the distance. Font started his pro career in 2011 at 155 lb, before dropping down to 145 lb in 2012 in his third pro fight. He didn’t move down to 135 lb until his UFC debut in 2014. He never had a problem with the cut over his next 13 UFC fights, before missing weight by 2.5 lb for his fight against Vera. However, he made weight with no issues in his last fight.

This will be the 5th five-round fight of Font’s career and 4th in the UFC. His one fight scheduled for five rounds prior to joining the UFC ended in a first round TKO win in 2013. His three UFC five-round fights all went the distance (1-2), with him losing the last two of those.

Overall, Font is most well known for his solid jab that he does a great job of working behind to put up big striking totals. He landed a combined 596 significant strikes in his recent three five-round decisions (1-2), averaging a blistering 7.95 SSL/min in those 15 rounds of action, while absorbing 308 significant strikes (4.11 SSA/min). He’s only been outlanded twice in 15 UFC fights and in his career he averages 6.46 SSL/min and 4.03 SSA/min. He’ll also mix in takedowns, with at least one landed in each of his last five fights to make it out of the first round. In his 15 UFC fights, he’s landed 12 of his 33 takedown attempts (36.4% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 18 of their 40 attempts (55% defense). Now 36 years old, Font hasn’t been wearing damage very well lately and nearly got finished in each of his last two five-round fights. He took nearly a year off after those defeats, and while he looked good offensively in his recent return, we still saw his face immediately swell up in his recent win over Yanez. That’s concerning for him moving forward, especially in five-round fights.

Fight Prediction:

Sandhagen will have a 3” height advantage, but Font will have a 1” reach advantage. Sandhagen is five years younger than the 36-year-old Font.

This has the potential to be a high-volume barn burner, although Sandhagen has been looking to wrestle a ton lately. While neither of these two have ever been knocked out, the damage appears to be catching up with the 36-year-old Font and it just seems like a matter of time before he suffers his first knockout loss. It doesn’t help him any that he stepped into this matchup on just over two weeks’ notice and cardio and durability go hand in hand. Font had been preparing to face Song Yadong in two weeks, but that was only scheduled to go three rounds, whereas this is set to go five. While all of Sandhagen’s recent fights have gone long, his last three matches have all come against seriously durable opponents in Vera, Yadong, and Yan, who entered their fights against Sandhagen with one combined early loss between them. While Font has also only been finished once in his career, we just don’t see him being able to absorb 25 minutes of damage on short notice and he was nearly finished at multiple points in each of his last two five-round fights. Sandhagen has the ability to knock him out or submit him, but he’s only landed one submission in his last 17 fights. However, he has been placing more of an emphasis on wrestling lately, which could put him in more positions where a submission becomes available. A knockout win is still more likely, but this could become a pick your poison spot if Font is getting beat up on the mat with ground and pound and opts to give up his back. So it’s hard to predict the exact method or time of a finish, but we like Sandhagen to end this one early as he tries to make his case for why he should be back in the top contender conversation.

Our favorite bet here is “Sandhagen ITD” at +130.

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DFS Implications:

Sandhagen has averaged an impressive 106 DraftKings points in his nine UFC wins, and if we remove his two three-round decision victories, since they’re not relevant here, his average jumps to 114 points. He scored 121 points on DraftKings and 115 points on FanDuel in his recent five-round decision win over Marlon Vera, and Sandhagen has been looking to wrestle a lot more in his last two matches. Those two fights make up 30% of his total fight time in the UFC, but included 63% of his career takedown attempts. Font has a 55% takedown defense and five of the last six opponents who tried to take him down were successful, with the one exception being Jose Aldo who failed to land his only attempt but still controlled Font on the mat down the stretch in that fight and had a chance at submitting him. We expect Sandhagen to continue to find some wrestling success here, although he does only have a 21% takedown accuracy. He also averages 5.98 SSL/min and his combination of striking and grappling should allow him to put up another big score in what looks like a favorable matchup against an opponent who stepped up on short notice. At his high price tag, there’s always a chance he could fail to return value with a poorly timed finish, and he scored “just” 95 DraftKings points in an early second round knockout of Marlon Moraes in his first UFC main event spot back in 2020. Considering how highly owned Sandhagen projects to be, that creates some merit in builds that fade the main event as a way to get unique on this smaller slate. Just keep in mind, that’s a high-risk strategy reserved for the largest contests and the most likely outcome is that the winner of this fight ends up in tournament winning lineups and is potentially the highest scorer on the slate. The odds imply Sandhagen has a 74% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Font constantly scores well when he wins, and lately even when he loses. He’s averaged 108 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC victories and if we remove his two three-round decisions that number jumps to 114 points, with at least 105 points in all of those. He also amazingly scored 114 points in a five-round decision loss to Marlon Vera and 77 points in a five-round decision loss to Jose Aldo just before that. Just keep in mind, he landed the third most significant strikes in UFC history in that loss to Vera, so that was definitely an outlier performance. Nevertheless, Font has scored 113 or more DraftKings points in four of his last five fights and is coming off an impressive R1 TKO win over a surging young prospect in Adrian Yanez. Font is now priced as the second cheapest fighter on this card, which should drive up his ownership, despite being a sizable underdog. We also expect to see a slight uptick in the number of lineups that stack this fight in tournaments, as both of these fighters have been involved in tournament winning fight stacks in the past. Rarely do things work out quite that neatly, but if Sandhagen wins a high-volume decision and only one or two underdogs on this slate win then it’s possible Font could lose and still end up in winning lineups. However, this looks like a slate with a lot of live underdogs, which greatly lowers the chances of a fight stack ending up in the winner. More realistically, Font will need to pull off the upset to be useful and Sandhagen is a really tough opponent to fight on short notice in a five-round match. Font had been preparing to face a pure striker in Song Yadong, and we expect Sandhagen to be looking to once again wrestle. Whether or not Font will be prepared for that remains to be seen. Font also hasn’t been wearing damage well at all lately and there’s a good chance Sandhagen finishes him. However, if Font does win, he’s a lock to end up in winning lineups at his cheap price tag. The odds imply Font has a 26% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

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Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

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