Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Looking to skip the reading and get straight to the best plays and top bets? We're now offering premium DFS and betting content at patreon.com/mmadfs that includes our new DFS Cheat Sheet, with our top DraftKings, FanDuel and PrizePicks plays along with our DraftKings ownership projections, as well as our top early bets and our complete betting chart for every UFC fight.
None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following an upset decision win on DWCS, Al-Selwady has won five straight fights after suffering back-to-back first round knockout losses with Brave FC in 2019. Three of his recent five wins went the distance, with the other two ending in first round ground and pound finishes. Al-Selwady’s last nine fights all ended in either first round knockouts (3-2) or went the distance (4-0). He won the vacant Desert Force 145 lb belt all the way back in 2013 when he was just 18 years old and then defended it once before getting knocked out in the first round of his second title defense. He also won the Brave FC 155 belt in 2018 in a R1 TKO via injury, but then got knocked out in the first round of his subsequent title defense. Al-Selwady also won the Fury FC 155 lb belt in a wrestling-heavy five-round decision just before going on DWCS.
Now 15-3 as a pro, Al-Selwady has eight KO/TKO wins, two submissions, and five decision victories. While he is a BJJ brown belt, both of his submission wins came early in his career in a pair of rear-naked chokes in 2014 and 2016. His last five finishes were all by knockout. He was also knocked out in the first round in all three of his losses. Al-Selwady started his career at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in 2017, which makes sense considering how young he was when he turned pro.
Overall, Al-Selwady is a relentless wrestler with a seemingly never-ending gas tank. He showed the ability to wrestle for 25 straight minutes in his second most recent fight and his cardio looks like a weapon. While he did start out training in Muay Thai, we typically see him rely on his wrestling. However, he also showed improved striking in his recent DWCS win, where he only landed one of his six takedown attempts and had to win the fight mostly on the feet. While he’s only 28 years old, Al-Selwady turned pro all the way back in 2012 when he was just 17 years old and has more experience than your typical debuting fighter in their twenties. He fights out of Fortis MMA so he has a good team around him and should be continuing to grow as a fighter considering his age.
Loik Radzhabov
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss, Radzhabov suffered a R2 TKO loss against a really tough Mateusz Rebecki, who absolutely destroyed the legs of Radzhabov and also took him down once in the first round and beat him up on the mat. Prior to that loss, Radzhabov stepped into his UFC debut on just six days’ notice and won a decision over Esteban Ribovics, who was also making his debut. Radzhabov landed 11 takedowns on 21 attempts with over seven and a half minutes of control time in that fight, but did get dropped late in the second round and then hurt again late in round three. That win came 14 months after he landed a first round submission win with Eagle FC, after losing a five-round decision in the PFL. Radzhabov has fought for the PFL million dollar prize not once, but twice, although he lost five-round decisions both times.
Now 17-5-1 as a pro, Radzhabov has seven wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. Nine of his 12 finishes occurred in his first nine pro fights and he hasn’t looked like much of a finisher lately, with 9 of his last 12 fights going the distance. He’s coming off the first early loss of his career in a second round TKO, with his previous four defeats all ending in decisions. Radzhabov has competed at 155 lb, 165 lb, and 170 lb, showing that he’s probably one of these 155/170 tweeners who would benefit from the rumored 165 lb division that the UFC is considering. However, 12 of his last 13 fights have been at 155 lb and it appears that’s where he’ll stay for the time being.
Overall, Radzhabov relies largely on his wrestling to win fights, but isn’t helpless on the feet either. He’s not the most explosive or exciting fighter by any means, but he just keeps on going and can wear on his opponents. He’s already 33 years old, trains at Kill Cliff FC, and has twice competed with a million dollars on the line, so he has a lot of experience and a good team around him. In his two UFC fights, he landed 11 of his 21 takedown attempts (52.3% accuracy), while getting taken down on one of two opponent attempts (50% defense). Radzhabov doesn’t land much striking volume and only averages 2.61 SSL/min, although absorbs far more than he lands at 5.31 SSA/min. He notably missed weight by 1.25 lb for his last fight and has competed as high as 170 lb in the past, so he’ll be a guy to monitor on the scale on Friday.
Fight Prediction:
Radzhabov is listed as having a 3” height advantage, but they appeared much closer in height at faceoffs. Both fighters share a 69” reach. Radzhabov is five years older than the 28-year-old Al-Selwady.
Both of these two are wrestlers so it will be interesting to see if that results in more of a standup battle here, which is often the case in situations like this. Radzhabov had no answer for leg kicks in his last fight and anyone that fights him should be looking to attack that vulnerability moving forward. Al-Selwady landed 15 of the 17 leg kicks he threw on DWCS, showing at least some potential to capitalize in that area. Al-Selwady has shown some durability issues at times, but Radzhabov only has one KO/TKO win in his last 14 fights (R1 2021) and isn’t a huge knockout threat. Al-Selwady also isn’t known for starching guys on the feet and unless he lands another ground and pound finish, which looks less likely in this matchup, then it will likely end in a lower volume decision. We give Al-Selwady the advantage with the judges and he’s 5-0 in past decisions, while Radzhabov is just 5-4-1. Al-Selwady by decision is the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady DEC” at +175.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Al-Selwady looks like a really interesting fighter for DFS, specifically on DraftKings, however this is far from a favorable stylistic matchup for him as he faces a fellow wrestler. On the regional scene, Al-Selwady showed the ability to completely dominate opponents on the mat, while racking up ground and pound and landing occasional finishes. However, now he’s facing a larger wrestler in Radzhabov, who hasn’t been taken down more than once in any of his last five fights. However, Radzhabov did get taken down and beat up on the mat in his last fight, so it’s certainly not impossible that Al-Selwady can find some success with his wrestling, we just can’t confidently count on that. And if he doesn’t dominate on the ground, it’s hard to see him scoring well without a rare knockout on the feet. He only landed one takedown in his recent decision win on DWCS and scored just 63 DraftKings points and 67 points on Fanduel. So he’s really a guy we’ll be looking to hammer when he gets a more favorable matchup in the future, but maybe he’ll surprise us and find more wrestling success than expected. The odds imply Al-Selwady has a 62% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Radzhabov’s wrestling-heavy style generally makes him a better fit for the DraftKings scoring system compared to FanDuel’s, but he gets another tough matchup here to get his ground game going as he takes on another wrestler in Al-Selwady. We’d be surprised to see Radzhabov dominate Al-Selwady on the ground and there’s a good chance this plays out as a lower volume striking battle, where the winner will need a knockout to score well. Concerning for Radzhabov’s outlook, he only has one knockout win in his last 14 fights, which was back in 2021, However, Al-Selwady does have three first round knockout losses on his record and he has shown durability concerns in the past. That at least gives Radzhabov a puncher’s chance, and there’s always the slight possibility for him to overpower Al-Selwady on the mat and score well through his wrestling. The odds imply Radzhabov has a 38% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Ludovit Klein
8th UFC Fight (4-2-1)Klein was originally scheduled to face Joel Alvarez here, but Alvarez dropped out and Cunningham was announced as the replacement on Monday.
Coming off an upset decision win over Ignacio Bahamondes, Klein has fought to four straight decisions (3-0-1), since moving up from 145 lb to 155 lb. Klein came in as a +190 underdog but took Bahamondes down three times and controlled him for six minutes, while also finishing ahead 56-43 in significant strikes. Prior to that, Klein was a -210 favorite but squeaked out a majority draw against Jai Herbert after Herbery was deducted a point in the third round for repeated, but debated low blows. That came just after Klein pulled off the upset as a +310 underdog in a decision win over Mason Jones. Klein’s first UFC fight at 155 lb came on short notice against Devonte Smith and once again Klein pulled off the upset as a +125 underdog. Looking back to the start of his UFC career, Klein won his 2020 debut in dramatic fashion with a first round head kick KO against a terrible Shane Young, which is the only time Klein has won as a favorite in the UFC, as entered with the odds slightly in his favor (-130). The win resulted in Klein being a -235 favorite against Michael Trizano in his next match, where Klein lost a close/questionable decision. Klein was then an even bigger -390 favorite against Nate Landwehr, who outlasted and submitted Klein in the third round, triggering Klein’s move up to 155 lb. So amazingly, Klein is just 1-2-1 as a favorite in the UFC, but 3-0 as an underdog.
Now 20-4-1 as a pro, Klein has eight wins by KO/TKO, eight more by submission, and four decision victories. His last seven finishes all ended in knockouts, while all of his submission wins occurred earlier in his career, including six in his first six pro fights. Nine of his 16 finishes occurred in the first round and he generally is the most dangerous early on in fights. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2017), submitted twice (R1 2017 & R3 2021), and has one decision defeat. He’s only been past the second round nine times in 25 pro fights (6-2-1). The vast majority of Klein’s career was spent down at 145 lb, although he missed weight by 4 lb for his 2020 short notice UFC debut, and then moved up to 155 lb in 2022.
Overall, Klein is a patient striker with a deadly head kick and he’ll also mix in wrestling. However, despite having eight submission wins on his record, he hasn’t looked very dangerous on the mat and has zero submission attempts in the UFC. In his seven UFC fights, he landed 9 of his 20 takedown attempts (45% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 2 of their 12 attempts (83.3% defense). While he failed to land a takedown against four of his first five UFC opponents, we’ve seen him land multiple takedowns in each of his last two fights. His biggest weaknesses are his cardio and heart, and he slows down later in fights and doesn’t handle adversity very well. He’s looking for a clean fight and is less effective when he’s the one being pressured. While he does have solid power with his striking, he doesn’t land much volume, averaging just 3.49 SSL/min and 3.53 SSA/min. While he hasn’t finished anybody since his UFC debut, he’s been facing tougher competition up until now.
AJ Cunningham
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Stepping in on less than a week’s notice, Cunningham originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in September at 145 lb, but got knocked out in the second round of a high-volume fight. The last time Cunningham made it to the judges was in August 2022, but he was nearly submitted four times in the first round alone before his opponent gassed out in round two and let Cunningham back into the fight. Cunningham was then in another precarious spot on the mat in his next fight, and also almost got knocked out in that match, but outlasted his opponent and locked up a submission of his own in the third round. That was enough for the UFC to bring him onto DWCS, where Cunningham got lit up on the fight and dropped badly at the end of round one. It looked like the fight would be stopped but Cunningham was saved by the bell and the ref allowed it to continue as Cunningham barely made it back to his corner. The beatdown continued in round two until the ref finally took mercy on Cunningham and stopped it on the fight as Cunningham could barely stand up and was absorbing a ton of damage. Cunningham then returned to the Arkansas regional scene and took a fight with the very legitimate Real Deal Championships on the “RDC9: As Real As it Gets” card at the Little Rock Fairgrounds. His opponent was in the midst of a six fight losing streak, and probably his lunch break during a Wendy’s shift, in what is laughably being called a professional fight. Cunningham unsurprisingly knocked him out in the first round.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Cunningham has four wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. He has one TKO loss and two decision defeats. While his last three fights all ended early, his three before that all went the distance. Take his finishes on the regional scene with a grain of salt, as he had been facing a ton of terrible opponents. Only 4 of his 11 wins came against opponents with winning records, and even records were unimpressive at 6-4, 6-4, 5-2, and 5-2. Most of Cunningham’s career has been at 145 lb but he has gone 3-0 at 155 lb, where he’ll be making his UFC debut.
Overall, Cunningham is a low-level brawler who’s traumatic childhood story and relationship with Bryce Mitchell likely played a role with him getting a shot in the UFC. Cunningham had an abusive biological father who was part of the Aryan Brotherhood and injected him with steroids when he was six years old before protective services rescued Cunningham and his three siblings and found them a foster home in Arkansas. That’s obviously really hard to hear and you have to feel for the guy. It seems like his childhood trauma left him with a ton of heart and toughness, and he’ll keep fighting until he’s unconscious. However, raw toughness can only get you so far and he’s pretty lacking when it comes to technical skills. He protects his hands with his face as he keeps them down and out of danger of being hit. Despite training with Bryce Mitchell, Cunningham’s grappling also looks pretty terrible, as does his fight IQ. With all that said, he makes for exciting scraps and you can’t question his heart, so enjoy his fights while we have them because he won’t be around the UFC for more than a single contract.
Fight Prediction:
Cunningham is listed as having a 3” height advantage, but they appeared much closer in height at faceoffs. Klein will have a 1” reach advantage.
The UFC was desperate to have enough fights to keep this card alive, so they would have allowed pretty much anyone to step in, which is basically what happened. AJ Cunningham has no business being in the big show and got mauled on DWCS before last competing at the Little Rock Fairgrounds. If he should be in the UFC, then everybody should be in the UFC. Both Cunningham and Klein spent the majority of their careers at 145 lb, but we’d be surprised if Cunningham didn’t cut back down to 145 lb after this fight, while Klein appears content with staying at 155 lb. So while Cunningham is the taller man, he is fighting up a weight class from where he typically competes and where he fought at in DWCS, although his last “fight” was also at 155 lb. That should be an advantage for Klein, as is the fact that Cunningham took this fight on five days’ notice. Not that Klein needed any extra advantages, as he’s a legitimate UFC fighter and has Cunningham outgunned both on the feet and the mat. However, we do question both Klein’s heart and cardio, which are the only two areas where Cunningham can be even remotely competitive. While that opens up a sliver of hope for Cunningham to land a late hail mary finish if Klein gasses out and gives up, that would be a truly shocking outcome based on how terrible Cunningham is. Even though Klein hasn’t finished anybody since his UFC debut, he’s still a very dangerous striker and Cunningham’s non-existent striking defense is concerning for his chances of even surviving the opening round. While UFC-level opponents have caught on to Klein’s head kick and seem to be actively preparing to defend it, Cunningham leaves his hands low and lacks the reaction speed and preparation time to really be ready for him. So there’s a good chance Klein is able to catch him early and we like Klein’s chances of knocking him out in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Klein/Cunningham Fight Ends in R1” at +140.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Klein has failed to top 86 DraftKings points in any of his last six UFC fights, after scoring 104 points in a first round knockout win in his 2020 UFC debut. His last three victories all went the distance, where he averaged just 77 points and failed to show any real upside. While he has been looking to mix in takedowns, his lack of striking volume (3.49 SSL/min) is problematic in DFS. He also doesn’t have great cardio, tends to slow down later in fights, and is generally reliant on landing early finishes to score well. It’s been three and half years since he got anyone out of there early and is now the second most expensive fighter on the card. Excited about playing him yet? With all that said, this is an absolute dream matchup for him to smash. He’s facing a short notice newcomer who’s always looking to throw down in a brawl, yet has no striking defense. And while Klein isn’t the ideal candidate to capitalize in that type of situation, given that he’s a lower volume striker who doesn’t handle pressure especially well, even he should be able to find success in this teed up matchup. His cardio won’t be a factor if he ends this in the first round and a half, which is what the books are expecting and so are we. However, at his high price tag there are still lots of ways for him to find an early finish and still get priced out of winning lineups, so he’s certainly not a lock to end up in the optimal. Nevertheless, he has the best matchup on the slate to score, so we can’t wait to see how he screws this up. The odds imply Klein has an 88% chance to win, a 64% chance to land a finish, and a 36% chance it comes in round one.
Cunningham is one of these fighters who we’ll always be looking to bet against and target in DFS due to his non-existent defense and uptempo style. Confirming that, his opponent on DWCS would have scored 121 DraftKings points and 149 points on FanDuel. While that pace is also theoretically beneficial for Cunningham’s scoring ceiling, we just don’t see him winning many (any?) fights at the UFC level. Especially not up a weight class on short notice against a legitimate opponent, which will be the case here. However, on this smaller slate we’re forced to consider all options and low owned fighters will be extra valuable. And at his cheap salary, there’s also the potential for Cunningham to sneak into winning lineups even in a loss if we get another slate where no more than one underdog wins, which is very possible when you consider all the massive favorites on this tiny slate. That leaves us with no choice but to have some exposure to Cunningham in tournaments, but we fully expect him to get knocked out in round one. The odds imply Cunningham has a 12% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Christian Leroy Duncan
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Duncan is fresh off a late second round TKO win over an unimpressive Denis Tiuliulin, who was stepping on very short notice. Duncan was easily able to push Tiuliulin up against the cage and wear on his gas tank in round one, before opening up with things on the feet and putting him away. That win came after Duncan suffered his first career loss in an uneventful decision against a fellow striker in Armen Petrosyan, who outlanded Duncan 89-59 in significant strikes and took him down once, while stuffing all three of Duncan’s takedown attempts. Prior to that, Duncan’s UFC debut ended unceremoniously before it ever really began when Dusko Todorovic randomly blew out his knee in a freak injury less than two minutes into the first round. Just before that anticlimactic debut win, Duncan won a pair of Middleweight title fights with Cage Warriors. Both of those fights were scheduled to go five rounds, but neither made it past the 11 minute mark, with one ending early in round three and the other late in round one. Duncan only turned pro in September 2020 and has just 10 pro fights under his belt, but he had a lengthy amateur career prior to that. While he’s only required the judges twice as a pro, he went 5-6 in amateur fights that went the distance and has generally been reliant on landing finishes to win.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Duncan has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and one decision victory. He has four first round finishes, three in round, and one in round three. He’s never been finished himself, with his one loss ending in a decision.
Overall, Duncan is a powerful striker who likes to mix in flashy strikes like jumping knees, spinning back elbows, and roundhouse kicks. One consistent issue we’ve seen from him is a tendency to leave his fingers outstretched and he’ll run the risk of poking opponents in their eyes until he fixes that. He also struggles off his back and doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling. Because of that and his dangerous striking, opponents are often looking to take him down, which has often contributed to lower striking totals in many of his fights. Showing just how bad his grappling is, he failed to land any of his three takedown attempts against Armen Petrosyan, who came into that fight with a 25% takedown defense, and also went 0 for 2 on his attempts against Denis Tiuliulin, who may have the worst grappling in the entire UFC. And Petrosyan was even able to take Duncan down, which is the only time Petrosyan landed a takedown in any of his five UFC fights or on DWCS. However, the UFC continues to give Duncan favorable stylistic matchups against fellow strikers and clearly they want to build him up and give him time to round out his game.
Claudio Ribeiro
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Likely fighting for his job (but who even knows anymore), Ribeiro is 1-2 in the UFC and coming off a second round knockout loss to Roman Kopylov. The only success Ribeiro had in that fight was when he blitzed Kopylov late in round one, but he was never actually close to finishing him and then got knocked out 33 seconds into round two with a head kick. Prior to that loss, Ribeiro secured his lone UFC win in a second round TKO against a terrible Joseph Holmes, after getting knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut by Abdul Razak Alhassan. All three of Ribeiro’s UFC fights ended in second round knockouts. Before joining the organization, Ribeiro had knocked out six straight opponents with five of those ending in round one, including a 25 second R1 KO win on DWCS. Just keep in mind, he was fighting a lot of dubious competition on the Brazilian regional scene.
Now 11-4 as a pro, all 11 of Ribeiro’s wins have come by knockout, with eight ending in round one, two coming in round two, and the other ending in round five. He’s also been knocked out twice himself, both times in the second round, was submitted in the first round of his 2017 pro debut, and lost the only decision he’s ever been to, which was back in 2018. His last nine fights all ended in knockouts and only one of those lasted longer than nine minutes. Ribeiro fought at 170 until 2019 when he moved up to 185 lb following an uninspiring decision loss. He only weighed 181.5 lb on DWCS and 183 lb for his UFC debut, but came in at 185 lb and 185.5 lb for his last two fights, so it seems like he was growing into the weight class.
Overall, Ribeiro is a one-dimensional striker who started his training in boxing before moving to Muay Thai and allegedly jiu-jitsu. He hasn’t shown much in terms of offensive grappling, and between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance he only attempted two takedowns, landing just one of those (50% accuracy). On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on one of their four attempts (75% defense). On the feet, he can be a little wild with his striking, but when he connects he does damage. He’ll also mix in a lot of leg kicks, but often throws them blindly without setting them up first, which is a risky move and leaves him open to be countered. We don’t trust his cardio, despite the fact that he has a fifth round TKO win on his record, and he generally looks reliant on landing early knockouts to win fights.
Fight Prediction:
According to the UFC, Duncan will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, but Ribeiro may be shorter than they list him. Duncan is also three years younger than the 31-year-old Ribeiro.
The UFC must be as annoyed as everyone else from Ribeiro’s siren screaming corner, as they aren’t making it easy on him to save his job here. Duncan is the bigger, stronger, faster fighter and looks to have Ribeiro outgunned here. Neither of them offer much in the way of grappling, but we could see Ribeiro try and get the fight to the ground as that’s the best way to attack Duncan. However, we’re not convinced that Ribeiro has the ground game to achieve that and we expect Duncan to keep the fight standing and lead the dance on the feet. They both have solid power, which creates some level of volatility, but Duncan has looked durable and Ribeiro has not. Duncan also has better cardio and we like his chances of knocking Ribeiro out in the first two rounds, with a good chance it comes early in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Christian Leroy Duncan KO” at +105.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Duncan has averaged 108 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins, both of which ended in TKOs in the first two rounds. He only scored 96 points in a R1 TKO in his UFC debut, but that’s because it came in a freak knee injury and he never landed a knockdown. He then landed a perfectly timed late R2 TKO in his last win that was good for 120 points and we’ve basically seen the two extremes of his scoring when he lands a knockout so far. In reality, he shouldn’t be scoring that poorly or that well in his finishes, as he doesn’t put up huge striking totals and adds very little in terms of grappling. However, he does have solid power and mixes in a variety of strikes that can be tough to see coming. He only scored 28 DraftKings points in his decision loss, so he’s given us zero indication that he can score well without a finish, but this isn’t a fight that we’re expecting to see the scorecards. Ribeiro’s last nine matches have all ended in knockouts, with all three of his UFC fights ending in round two (1-2). Duncan has shown a willingness to be patient in the first round and then open up after that, so another second round finish wouldn’t be at all surprising here. At Duncan’s high price tag, he’ll still be competing with the other expensive options on the slate and even in a knockout win there are plenty of ways he gets priced out, especially if the finish comes early in round two. However, he has solid upside and he’s never been finished, which is encouraging for his floor. He’s underpriced on FanDuel, so he looks like an especially good play over there, but we like him on both sites. The odds imply Duncan has a 74% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Ribeiro is a one-dimensional striker who offers very little in terms of grappling and relies on landing finishes to win fights. All 11 of his career victories have come by knockout, with eight of those 11 wins coming ending in round one. His lone UFC win came in the second round, and Ribeiro was still able to score an impressive 110 DraftKings points in that victory. Just keep in mind, that came against a terrible Joseph Holmes and now Ribeiro will face a much tougher test in Duncan, who’s never been finished in his career. Ribeiro has also been knocked out in the second round in each of his two UFC losses, leaving him with a very shaky floor. He’s probably fighting for his job here at 1-2, but the UFC can barely fill cards anymore and is more willing to keep guys on these days. So who knows, maybe if he puts on a good show they’ll bring him back in a loss. Either way, he should be motivated to leave it all out there and try to secure a second contract. Nevertheless, this looks like a tough matchup for him and he probably gets knocked out, leaving him as a cheap hail mary KO or bust play on a slate devoid of many good underdogs. We get having some level of exposure here, but there’s no sane way to be confident in Ribeiro’s chances. The odds imply Ribeiro has a 26% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Javid Basharat
5th UFC Fight (3-0, NC)Basharat recently turned Victor Henry into a Soprano with an early second round low blow that left Henry face down in the Octagon and later throwing up in the back and being sent to the hospital. Henry was unable to continue and the fight was ruled a No Contest. Prior to that, Basharat’s first three UFC fights all ended in decision wins, after he locked up a third round submission on DWCS in October 2021 to punch his ticket to the big show. The most recent of those wins came against a debuting grappler in Mateus Mendonca, who Basharat took down three times and controlled for over five minutes, while tripling him up in significant strikes 95-29. Prior to that, Basharat defeated Tony Gravely, who Basharat took down twice on four attempts with three minutes of control time. That came after Basharat defeated Trevin Jones in his UFC debut, where he never looked for a takedown. While Basharat has yet to finish anybody in the UFC, at least with a legal blow, he finished 11 straight opponents before joining the organization.
Now 14-0 as a pro, Basharat has five wins by TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. All five of his TKO wins occurred in round one, as did two of his submission victories. He also has two second round submission wins and one in round three. His last two finishes came by submission in the later rounds. After eight of his first nine pro wins ended in the first round, his last six have all seen the second round, and his recent second round No Contest is the only one of his last five fights not to make it to round three.
Overall, Basharat is a very well rounded fighter who’s dangerous anywhere a fight can go. He’s light on his feet, does a masterful job of controlling distance, and has good movement. He avoids taking unnecessary damage and is a tough opponent to deal with. He has a Taekwondo background, which is evident when you see him throw kicks, but he also seamlessly mixes in his grappling and likes to look for chokes on the mat. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 9 of his 18 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 4 of their 28 attempts (85.7% defense). While he never attempted any takedowns in his UFC debut, he’s attempted at least four in each of his other four most recent fights, getting all of those opponents down at least once. He also averages 5.65 SSL/min and just 2.50 SSA/min. He’s only lost one round on the scorecards in his last five fights, which was the first round against Tony Gravely and even that was close. So he’s basically been winning every minute of his UFC career and is extremely sound both offensively and defensively.
Aiemann Zahabi
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Quietly on a three fight winning streak, Zahabi is coming off a first round knockout win over Aoriqileng that only lasted 64 seconds. Prior to that, he won a super low-volume decision win over a previously exciting Ricky Turcios. That fight ended with Zahabi ahead 54-27 in striking, with no takedowns landed from either fighter. That came after Zahabi landed another first round knockout, that time against a fraudulent Drako Rodriguez, who went 0-2 in the UFC and then 0-1 after being cut in 2021. Zahabi made his UFC debut in 2017, but after competing twice that year he’s only fought four times since. He won a low-volume decision in his debut, but was then knocked out by Ricardo Ramos in the third round of his next fight. He took all of 2018 off after that, before returning in May 2019, where he lost a low-volume decision to Vince Morales. Zahabi then took the rest of 2019 and all of 2020 off, before returning in 2021 to begin his current three-fight winning streak.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Zahabi has six wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out once and has one decision defeat. Six of his eight finishes came against a low level of competition in his first six pro fights before he joined the UFC.
Overall, Zahabi is a 36-year-old low-volume counter striker who only averages 3.04 SSL/min and 3.40 SSA/min. He’s never landed more than 54 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 64. And in his six UFC fights, he only landed one takedown on six attempts (16.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down five times on 20 attempts (75% defense). Despite being a BJJ black belt, he doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling. Aiemann Zahabi’s older brother is Firas Zahabi, the owner and head coach at Tristar in Canada. We found Firas is good at crafting smart but boring game plans and likes his fighters to be cautious in their approach. Zahabi hinted that would once again be the game plan here and said to expect a tactical chess match. Zahabi brought in Said Kakhramonov for this camp to help him prepare for the wrestling of Basharat, which is a good training partner to have.
Fight Prediction:
Basharat will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while also being eight years younger than the 36-year-old Zahabi.
We’re expecting the same thing that Zahabi is here, a slower paced tactical battle that likely goes the distance. Basharat is the superior fighter everywhere and there is a chance he could get Zahabi out of there, but the slower pace we’re expecting may limit his opportunities for a finish. While Zahabi has a 75% takedown defense, two of the three opponents who tried to take him down in the UFC were able to land multiple of their attempts. We could see Basharat locking up a submission at some point, probably in the later rounds, although Zahabi is notably a BJJ black belt. The more likely outcome is that Basharat systematically dismantles Zahabi with a combination of striking and wrestling to cruise to another decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Basharat/Zahabi FGTD” at -164.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Basharat has been impressive in terms of his ability to neutralize opponents and win fights with relative ease, but he’s only averaged 83 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, all of which went the distance. However, we have seen his scoring continue to improve, and after notching just 66 points in his UFC debut, he scored 83 points in his next fight and 99 points in his last win. However, that momentum was stalled in his recent No Contest following an accidental low blow and now he’s facing a painfully patient opponent in Aiemann Zahabi, who’s life goal is to slow fights down to the point of being unwatchable. Zahabi is content with sitting and waiting for as long as it takes for a counter striking opportunity to present itself, which is terrible for DFS when his fights run long. Basharat can also be really patient and this is a recipe for disaster when it comes to DFS scoring. However, Basharat’s wrestling does present some upside for him, even if we’re not expecting a ton of strikes to be landed. While Zahabi has a 75% takedown defense and is a BJJ black belt, two of the three opponents who tried to take him down in the UFC were able to land multiple of their attempts. That at least leaves Basharat with some wrestling upside, but he would really need to dominate this fight on the ground to score well without a finish. And as the third most expensive fighter on the card, there are plenty of ways for him to score well and still get priced out of winning lineups. However, his low projected ownership does add to his tournament appeal on this smaller slate where it will be much harder to create unique lineups. The odds imply Basharat has an 86% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Zahabi has been a boom or bust DFS option, who’s relied on early knockouts to score well. He only scored 52 and 54 DraftKings points respectively in his two UFC decision victories, but was able to land first round knockouts in two of his last three fights. Just keep in mind, both of those finishes were against low-level opponents and we’ve never seen Zahabi finish anyone decent. Now he’s facing the undefeated Javid Basharat and it would be shocking to see Zahabi land another finish here. The only reason we see to consider Zahabi is his cheap price tag and potential to sneak into winning DFS lineups in a loss if only one underdog on this slate wins, which is definitely in play on this smaller slate full of massive favorites. However, that’s a pretty thin angle and Zahabi only scored 18 DraftKings points in his one UFC decision loss. We don’t expect him to make much of an impact on the stat sheet and a similar score here is likely. So he’ll really need favorites to dominate to have a chance at being useful unless he pulls off the shocking upset. The odds imply Zahabi has a 14% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Vinicius Oliveira
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Oliveira was originally scheduled to face Yanis Ghemmouri here, but Ghemmouri dropped out and Sopaj was announced as the replacement on Tuesday.
Making his UFC debut following a first round knockout win on DWCS, Oliveira’s last five fights all ended early and he’s only required the judges twice in 22 pro fights. Oliveira won the UAEW Bantamweight belt in 2021 and then defended it once, but was then knocked out in his second attempted title defense in a back and forth fight where Oliveira almost got knocked out in round one, almost knocked his opponent out in round two, and then started taunting his opponent in round three just before he actually did get knocked out. Oliveira then bounced back with a first round knockout win before going on DWCS. Oliveira has a 2018 R2 TKO loss to Cristian Quinonez on his record. That was a crazy back and forth brawl where Quinonez landed an illegal knee early on but the fight quickly resumed. It was concerning that a striker in Quinonez was able to take Oliveira down and we also saw Oliveira looking tired, before the fight was stopped early in R2 due to a BS doctor stoppage.
Now 19-3 as a pro, Oliveira has 15 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision wins. Fourteen of his finishes ended in round one, with three coming in round two. Sixteen of his 17 finishes ended in a round and a half or less. He’s also been knocked out in all three of his losses and has only seen the third round three times in his career. His last three wins all ended in the first round. Oliveira had one fight at 125 lb in 2019, but the rest of his career has been at 135 lb.
Overall, Oliveira is an aggressive finisher who fights with his hands low as he’s far more concerned with offense than defense. He can get a little (okay a lot) wild with his striking, which leaves him open to be countered, but when he connects he does a lot of damage. He’ll also mix in takedowns and occasional submission attempts, although he’s only a BJJ purple belt. He tends to showboat a lot, which has gotten him into trouble at times, but he’s not lacking in confidence. It’s hard to see Oliveira being involved in too many boring matches moving forward and he’s still only 28 years old, despite already having 22 fights under his belt.
Benardo Sopaj
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut, Sopaj just stepped into this fight on Tuesday, but had been preparing for a fight in Sweden next week, so it’s not like he rolled off the couch. Sopaj has landed three straight KO/TKOs in under a round and a half, after splitting two painfully patient decisions where he refused to throw any volume. He did at least follow up those boring decisions with three straight finishes, showing that when he does land he can do serious damage.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Sopaj has seven wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and one decision victory. He’s never been finished himself, but has gone just 1-2 in three career decisions. While his last two fights both ended in round one, his previous five all made it to the second round, with three going the distance. Sopaj had a couple of fights at 125 lb in 2018, but the rest of his career has been at 135 lb.
Overall, Sopaj is a painfully patient 23-year-old Albanian counter striker who somehow turned pro when he was just 15 years old. He’s based out of the Allstars Training Center in Sweden, but he’s been traveling around and spent time in Vegas training with Kape and the Basharat brothers and was then preparing for his previously scheduled upcoming fight in Sweden down at the Goat Shed Academy in Florida. So he’s at least making the rounds and looking to learn from different people. He seems to have all the physical tools required to be successful, he just needs to be more aggressive and fight with a sense of urgency if he wants to ever win on the scorecards. He’ll mix in wrestling, but he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2019 and doesn’t look like any sort of jiu jitsu wizard. He’s typically looking to land knockouts with a quality over quantity approach, but will push for finishes once he has his opponents hurt. It has to be just as annoying to fight him as to watch him fight, as he seems to stay really defensively sound and doesn’t leave a ton of openings, while refusing to engage for extended periods of time. Then he’ll finally explode after lulling his opponents to sleep, but maybe that’s something he’ll improve on after training with so many different fighters lately. He’s still so young that he should be improving all the time, but it will be interesting to see how he looks against tougher competition, as none of his previous opponents looked very impressive.
Fight Prediction:
Oliveira will have a 1” height advantage and is five years older than the 25-year-old Sopaj.
This is an interesting matchup where we have one very aggressive kill or get killed fighter in Oliveira going against a very patient counter striker in Sopaj, who’s been far more durable in his career. That theoretically sets up for Oliveira to walk into something and get knocked out, but Sopaj stepping in on extremely short notice is a big red flag, even if he had been preparing for another fight. While he should be in good shape, he had no time to prepare and suddenly had to cut weight a week sooner for the biggest moment of his life. It would be a mistake to completely discount the short notice nature of this matchup just because he was preparing for another fight. However, quantifying that impact is certainly challenging and that’s where we expect to see inconsistencies in the betting market this week. If Sopaj has a tough weight cut, the Octagon jitters, or suffers an adrenaline dump, Oliveira will make him pay with his consciousness. However, if Sopaj shows up 100% and ready to go, he’ll have a good shot at landing a knockout of his own, simply based on Oliveira’s extremely reckless fighting style. It’s a tough fight to call for that reason, but we do expect Oliveira to force the action and it most likely ends with someone getting knocked out. Historical short notice stats heavily favor Oliveira, but this seems like a really bad stylistic matchup for him, as he wants someone that will stand and trade. Oliveira certainly has the power and preparation to win, but we just can’t trust him defensively so we have to take the plus money on Sopaj and expect this to end via knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Oliveira/Sopaj Fight Ends in KO” at +150.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Oliveira is an exciting brawler who’s always looking to put on a show and find a finish. He fights with his hands low with very little regard for his defense and is far more focussed on landing bombs on his opponents. While that makes for a lot of highlight reel knockouts, it also results in him swinging recklessly and leaving himself open to be countered. That’s great for DFS, as it means someone should score well in his fights and he’s only been two two decisions in 22 pro appearances. He’ll also mix in takedowns at times, further adding to his scoring potential. This is sort of a tricky/volatile matchup for him, as he faces a power-punching counter striker who stepped in on short notice. That leaves Oliveira with a low floor but a high ceiling and we typically see short notice debuting fighters struggle. However, Sopaj definitely has the power to knock Oliveira out. Sopaj has also shown the ability to ruin a fight, so if anyone was ever going to force Oliveira into a more boring match, it would be Sopaj, so maybe don’t go all in on this fight. However, we really like someone to get knocked out and you’ll want exposure to both sides. The odds imply Oliveira has a 53% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Sopaj is a low-volume counter striker who will be reliant on landing finishes to score well in DFS. While he has good power, you rarely get to see it as he’s reluctant to let his hands go. He’ll also mix in takedowns, but hasn’t looked like much of a submission threat in any of his last five fights. That leaves him extremely reliant on finding a willing dance partner to put on a good fight, which is exactly what he has here. Oliveira is a reckless brawler who keeps his hands low and has three knockout losses on his record. There’s a good chance Oliveira walks onto something here and gets knocked out. It’s concerning that Sopaj just stepped into this fight on Tuesday, but he had at least been preparing for a fight next week and looks to be in shape. Nevertheless, that’s still a factor to consider and we historically see fighters in his position struggle. We’re treating him as a volatile KO or bust option in a high-upside matchup, but it’s possible he could serve as a value play in a decision win if Oliveira can force the pace. The odds imply Sopaj has a 47% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Eryk Anders
17th UFC Fight (7-8, NC)Coming off a decision loss to Marc-Andre Barriault, Anders is just 1-3 in his last four fights. His only win over that stretch was a December 2022 second round TKO against Kyle Daukaus. To Anders’ credit, he said he broke his foot before his last fight, but still went out there and fought three hard rounds. He did get knocked down early in the fight, but fought through that adversity and kept the striking numbers close, while only landing 1 of his 11 takedown attempts. Prior to that, Anders secured his only early win since 2019 in a second round TKO over Kyle Daukaus, who got knocked out in his last two UFC fights before being released. Anders came out pretty aggressively in that fight and had Daukaus hurt at multiple points and never stopped pouring it on him until things were eventually stopped midway through the second round. Leading up to that win, Anders lost a close split decision to Jun Yong Park, after getting submitted in the first round by Andre Muniz. Anders shot for a ridiculous 24 takedown attempts against Park, but was only able to land three of those. Anders’ second most recent win was a 2021 decision over Darren Stewart up at 205 lb. Anders nearly finished Stewart in a 185 lb fight just before that, but idiotically threw an illegal knee after he had Stewart nearly out in the first round and the fight was ruled a No Contest. Anders is just 4-7 plus the No Contest in his last 12 fights and the last time he strung two wins together was in 2019 when he knocked out an absolutely terrible Vinicius Moreira and then won a split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
Now 15-8 as a pro, Anders has nine wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and five decisions. He has one TKO loss (R3 2018), one submission defeat (R1 2021), and six decision losses. Four of the 11 decisions he’s been to have been split (1-3). Anders has bounced between 185 lb and 205 lb throughout his career, with four of his 16 UFC fights taking place at 205 lb (2-2), including his lone TKO loss, and his other 12 UFC fights occurring at 185 lb (5-6, NC). Anders has gone 1-4 plus a No Contest in his last six fights at 185 lb and it seems like the weight cut is a tough one.
Overall, Anders is a fairly well rounded UFC veteran who’s a BJJ brown belt, but not much of a submission threat. He had been training out of Fight Ready, but then switched to the MMA Lab, and now stayed at home in Alabama for this camp to be close to family. He said he has four fights left before he retires and he’s understandably already begun focussing more on his life outside of fighting as he quickly approaches his 37th birthday. Anders has been an inconsistent performer who will look great in one match and average in the next, so it’s always hard to know what we can expect from him. He’s often involved in slower paced affairs and has never landed more than 83 significant strikes in a UFC fight, averaging just 3.56 SSL/min in his UFC career. In his 16 UFC fights, he landed 20 of his 83 takedown attempts (24.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on just 9 of their 44 attempts (79.5% defense). Anders is a former Alabama linebacker who had stints in the NFL, CFL and AFL and is massive at 185 lb, which generally makes for tough weight cuts. He had a November 2020 fight canceled due to weight cutting issues, so it will be important to monitor him closely on the scale Friday.
Jamie Pickett
9th UFC Fight (2-6)Loser of four straight and just 2-6 in the UFC, it’s amazing that Pickett continues to get opportunities with the organization. His most recent loss came in a lackluster decision against Josh Fremd, where Pickett amazingly only landed 14 significant strikes over the course of 15 minutes and lost every round on every scorecard. Prior to that, Pickett has been finished in the first two rounds in three straight fights, with the most recent of those coming in a first round submission against Bo Nickal. Pickett put up little resistance in that fight as Nickal landed a strategic low-blow to help get the fight to the mat. Before that, Pickett got knocked out in the second round by a one dimensional striker in Denis Tiuliulin, who’s been finished himself in all four of his other UFC fights. That came just after Pickett was submitted in the final second of round one by Kyle Daukaus, who was then knocked out in each of his next two fights before being cut. Pickett also lost a decision in his UFC debut, before getting knocked out by Jordan Wright in just 64 seconds in his second fight. He was able to bounce back with a pair of boring decision wins after that, but those are his only victories with the organization. He also went just 1-2 in three appearances on DWCS.
Now 13-10 as a pro, Pickett has nine wins by KO/TKO and four decision victories. The last time he finished anybody was on DWCS in 2020 and he hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat at the UFC level. On the other side of things, he’s been knocked out twice, submitted four times, and has four decision losses. Pickett has appeared content with trying to grind out decisions by pushing opponents up against the cage and three of his last four wins went the distance.
Overall, Pickett has yet to do anything to impress us since joining the UFC and while he’s got decent athleticism, he is habitually tentative with his striking. He only averages 2.84 SSL/min and failed to top 60 significant strikes landed in any of his eight UFC fights or his three trips on DWCS. He also hasn’t been impressive with his grappling despite being a BJJ brown belt. Between his eight UFC fights and three DWCS appearances, he landed 10 of his 25 takedown attempts (40% accuracy), while he’s been taken down 10 times on 33 opponent attempts (69.7% defense). Pickett cryptically talked about how he’s been dealing with some sort of injury for the last year, but didn’t want to go into detail for fear that opponents would target it. Even when healthy, Pickett has yet to look offensively dangerous in the UFC and has only been able to defeat struggling opponents in boring decisions.
Fight Prediction:
Pickett will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being a year younger than the 36-year-old Anders.
Pickett has had one of the most unimpressive UFC careers of anyone that made it past their first contract. It’s unclear how he’s even getting a ninth fight with the organization following four straight losses. Nevertheless, here we are. While Anders is counting the days to retirement and has gone just 1-3 in his last four fights, this still appears to be a pretty big mismatch across the board. The one advantage Pickett will have is his reach, but we’re not confident in his ability to lean on that and we expect Anders to take the fight to him. Anders continues to look to wrestle, but has really struggled with his takedown accuracy, which sometimes results in him spending extended periods of time pushing opponents up against the cage and unsuccessfully looking to take them down. Pickett is no stranger to that position and has been controlled for extended periods of time in the past. While Pickett has been prone to getting submitted, Anders only has one submission win in his career, which was all the way back in 2016 in his fourth pro fight. So we’d be surprised to see Anders submit Pickett here, leaving him largely reliant on landing a rare knockout if he wants to find a finish. The more likely outcome is for Anders to outwork his way to a decision win, and that’s what we’re expecting to see here.
Our favorite bet here is “Anders/Pickett FGTD” at +102.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Anders has been a volatile DFS contributor who struggles with consistency. One fight he’ll look unstoppable and the next he’ll look unstartable. The best example of that is when he fought Darren Stewart in back-to-back fights. Anders came out like a man possessed in the first matchup and was on the brink of finishing Stewart and scoring 130+ DraftKings points when he threw an illegal knee late in the first round that resulted in a No Contest. Then they ran it back and Anders scored just 81 points in a lackluster low-volume decision. Further demonstrating his inconsistency, Anders has 16 UFC fights under his belt but only twice has he won two in a row and only once in his last 14 matches. So we truly never know what to expect from him, but he has been consistently inconsistent. To his credit, he’s mostly shown a solid scoring floor, with six of his seven UFC wins scoring at least 81 points. He gets a step down in competition here, as he faces an opponent in Pickett who’s on a four fight losing streak, with three of those losses coming early. However, Anders only has one early win in his last eight Octagon appearances and it’s hard to count on him to end things early. However, he does project to be lower owned, so if he does go off, he’ll be incredibly valuable in tournaments. The odds imply Anders has an 81% chance to win, a 38% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Pickett scored exactly 66 DraftKings points in each of his two UFC wins, which both ended in low-volume decisions against bad opponents. Pickett hasn’t looked like any sort of finisher at the UFC level, and while he is a BJJ brown belt, he’s never submitted anybody and has zero submission attempts in the UFC. He’s lost four straight fights, with three of those ending early and any fight could be Pickett’s last with the organization. While Pickett has yet to show the ability to score well, at his cheap price tag and on this smaller slate, he may not need a big score to still be useful. He’s among the pool of cheap fighters that could sneak into winning tournament lineups even in a loss if we get a slate where only one underdog wins, which is very possible. And with this being one of just three fights on the card expected to go the distance, he’ll have a higher floor than most of the other underdogs. Just keep in mind, he only scored 23 and 22 points respectively in his two UFC decision defeats and has been held to TWO or fewer points in three of his six losses. The odds imply Pickett has a 19% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Steve Erceg
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming off his second straight decision win, Erceg defeated Alessandro Costa most recently, who stepped in on short notice after Matt Schnell dropped out back in November. The UFC now put the Schnell matchup back together on this card, so this will be the second time they’ve prepared to face one another. Prior to that last win, Erceg was the one stepping in on short notice as he made his UFC debut against David Dvorak, who entered the matchup as the #10 ranked Flyweight. It wasn’t the most exciting fight, but Erceg was able to drop Dvorak with a head kick in round two, but failed to put him away as he tried to finish things with a guillotine. Erceg has now won 10 straight fights, with six of those ending early, although three of his last five went the distance. Born and raised in Australia, Erceg had been fighting for the Eternal MMA promotion, where he won the Flyweight belt over a highly suspect Shannon Ross back in 2020. Erceg then took a short notice fight up a weight class in his next match, winning a grappling-heavy decision at 135 lb. He then dropped back down to 125 lb and defended the Flyweight belt against Paul Loga, who he had already knocked out once before, and landed a first round submission. The promotion then opted not to put the belt on the line in Erceg’s next fight, and when asked why, Erceg said he thought it was because his opponent wasn’t from Australia and he didn’t think the promotion would want to pay to fly him in for future title fights if he won, which sounds super legit. Erceg also has a decision win over Seung Guk Choi, who lost in the finals of Road to the UFC.
Now 11-1 as a pro, Erceg has one win by KO (R1 2019), six submissions, and four decision victories. Four of his submissions ended in round one, while another occurred in round two, and the last in round three. His last four finishes all occurred in the first round and only one of his last 11 fights didn’t end in either a first round win or a decision. The only loss of his career came in a 2017 decision in his second pro fight. Erceg has competed at 135 lb a few times, but most of his career has been spent at 125 lb.
Overall, Erceg is an Australian BJJ black belt who has really good size for the Flyweight division. Over half of his career wins have ended in submissions and he’s typically looking to grapple. In his two UFC fights, he landed four of his 12 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while he got taken down by his opponents twice on nine attempts (77.7% defense). While Erceg only has one knockout win on his record, he nearly got another one in his debut, but instead looked for the club and sub unsuccessfully. It seems like even when he has opponents hurt his instincts are still to look for a submission opposed to ground and pound, although it does look like he’s making some improvements to his striking. However, he still doesn't land a ton of volume (4.27 SSL/min) and also looks kind of hittable, so overall he hasn’t really blown us away. However, he’s still only 28 years old and has plenty of time to refine his game.
Matt Schnell
13th UFC Fight (6-5, NC)Schnell is an enigma who has gone just 1-2 as a favorite in the UFC (one of those losses was overturned to a No Contest), but 5-4 as an underdog. His performances are all over the place, and he also struggles just to make it to fights. He dropped out of his last two booked matchups, which ironically both helped Erceg out. Schnell had been scheduled to fight David Dvorak in June 2023, but withdrew and that’s when the UFC brough Erceg in to make his debut on short notice. Then Schnell was scheduled to face Erceg in November, but dropped out again and Erceg got to fight a short notice replacement instead. So really Erceg owes Schnell a beer or two. The last time Schnell competed was in December 2022, when he struggled to make weight and was forced to shave his head to hit the mark. He then got knocked out by Matheus Nicolau in the second round, which is the only time Nicolau has knocked anybody out in the UFC. Prior to that, Schnell almost got knocked out again by Sumudaerji, but somehow held on and came back to land a finish of his own with a second round triangle choke. That’s Schnell’s only early win since 2019, but his last three finishes all ended in triangle chokes, albeit against a series of highly submittable opponents that have 14 combined submission losses between them. Leading up to that win, Schnell was submitted himself in the first round by Brandon Royval, following three straight canceled fights between Schnell and Alex Perez. Those followed a decision loss to Rogerio Bontorin that was later overturned to a No Contest when Bontorin tested positive for a banned diuretic, and a decision win over Tyson Name in 2021.
Now 16-7 as a pro, Schnell has two wins by KO, nine submissions, four decisions, and one DQ win. He’s been knocked out four times (three in round one and one in round two), submitted twice, and has one decision defeat. Schnell has fought at both 125 lb and 135 lb in the UFC and has often struggled making the 125 lb limit, but that’s also where he’s found more success.
Overall, Schnell is a volatile fighter who either comes into fights like a rabid dog or a shy cat depending on the mood he’s in. When he fights with emotion he puts on exciting performances that generally end early. When he fights smarter, he puts on boring snoozers, but more often than not gets his hand raised in close decisions, as he’s gone 3-1 with the judges in the UFC with two of those being split—and that loss was later overturned to a No Contest. While it’s tough to know what his approach will be in any given fight, you can generally expect either a fast paced banger that ends in the opening two rounds or a slow-paced snoozer that ends in a close decision. Schnell is a black belt in karate and a BJJ purple belt. While he has nine submission wins on his record, they’re all defensive submissions. He has three wins by armbar, two by guillotine, and four triangle chokes. He’s only landed four takedowns on nine attempts in his 11 UFC fights (44.4% accuracy), while his opponent got him down on 8 of their 15 attempts (46.7% defense). At 34 years old, Schnell seems to be struggling to make the Flyweight limit lately, and has had multiple issues at weigh-ins. So he’ll be a guy to monitor closely on the scale and then hopefully he doesn’t pass out in the back again afterwards.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8”, but Schnell will have a 2” reach advantage, while Erceg is six years younger than the 34-year-old Schnell.
We don’t really trust either of these two. We’ve seen Erceg get cracked and also slow down later in fights, while Schnell is a walking liability who’s extremely prone to getting finished. Schnell has struggled with fight cancellations and staying active and at 34 years old the weight cut down to 125 lb may be taking its toll on his chin, not that he was ever durable though. Schnell has shown himself to be dangerous off his back, but all the opponents he’s submitted have had terrible jiu jitsu and Erceg is a BJJ black belt. And while Erceg has looked a little chinny, the last time Schnell knocked anybody out was all the way back in 2015, before he joined the UFC. So if Schnell pulls off the upset here, it would probably be by decision, and he seems to have better cardio than Erceg. However, Schnell winning a decision will require 15 minutes of smart, tactical fighting where he avoids getting taken down or eating any clean shots. That’s a tough ask, especially in the smaller cage at the Apex. So we still like Erceg’s chances of finishing Schnell in the first two rounds. A knockout or a submission are both in play, but we think a first round club and sub is the most likely outcome.
Our favorite bet here is “Erceg/Schnell Fight to Start R3? - No” at -135.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Erceg has yet to finish anybody in the UFC, although neither of his first two opponents were all that easy to put away. Erceg was still able to score 87 DraftKings points in his most recent decision win, after only totalling 70 points in his previous victory. Now he gets a much more favorable matchup against Schnell, who’s been finished in six of his seven official pro losses, with all of those coming in under a round and a half and four in the opening five minutes. Schnell looked incredibly fragile in his last fight, which took place 15 months ago. He got knocked down twice in that match and then became the first fighter to ever get knocked out by Matheus Nicolau in the UFC. Nicolau scored 111 DraftKings points and 124 points on FanDuel in that match, after typically struggling to score well. That’s really encouraging for Erceg’s upside here and this looks like a great buy-low opportunity, as Erceg’s DraftKings ownership has yet to top 20% and now he’s one of the most expensive fighters on the card. While we do expect the sharper portion of the field to recognize the opportunity in front of them, Erceg still projects to be much lower owned than most of the other high priced options. That’s especially useful in tournaments on this smaller slate where it will be much tougher to create unique lineups. The odds imply Erceg has a 79% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Schnell only has one win since 2021 and he nearly got knocked out in that victory and then did get knocked out in his next match. He now hasn’t competed in 15 months and dropped out of his last two matchups. He’s habitually getting finished, which leaves him with a non-existent floor and he only averaged 57 DraftKings points in his three UFC decision wins, failing to top 64 points in any of those. He also has just one early win since 2019, although that was in his second most recent fight and he scored 115 points in that victory. However, he’s gone 5-4 as an underdog in the UFC and you can never count him out, even if you can never count on him. He’s the ultimate wild card and you don’t even know if he’s going to show up and fight aggressively or circle away from contact for 15 minutes. That makes it almost impossible to predict his fights and we’ve been burned at multiple points by trying to take a stand on him, regardless of what that stand may be. He may not need to put up a huge score here to be useful and at his cheap price tag he has multiple ways to sneak into winning tournament lineups if we don’t see many underdogs win. The odds imply Schnell has a 21% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Umar Nurmagomedov
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Nurmagomedov had been scheduled to fight Cory Sandhagen back in August, but pulled out and lost the headlining opportunity. Now he’s instead being relegated to one of the worst cards of the year against a debuting opponent. This fight was also only announced a few weeks ago, so it doesn’t appear like either fighter had a ton of time to prepare. It’s been 14 months since Nurmagomedov last competed, when he knocked out Raoni Barcelos late in the first round in January 2023. Prior to that, Nurmagomedov required the judges for the first time since 2019 in a wrestling-heavy decision win over Nate Maness. Nurmagomedov took Maness down three times on four attempts, while controlling him for nearly 11 minutes. Leading up to that decision win, Nurmagomedov locked up a first round submission win over Brian Kelleherm following a second round submission victory in his January 2021 UFC debut against Sergey Morozov. Both of those opponents have been very prone to getting submitted throughout their careers, so it was no surprise that Nurmagomedov locked up rear-naked chokes against each of them in the first two rounds.
Now 16-0 as a pro, Nurmagomedov has two KO/TKO wins, seven submission victories, and seven decision wins. All nine of his finishes occurred in the first two rounds, with five ending in round one and four in round two. His last two and three of his last four finishes came in round one.
Overall, Nurmagomedov has some of the slickest kicks you’ll ever see and throws up question mark kicks like he’s whipping you with a wet towel. A cousin of Khabib, the 26-year-old has really solid grappling in addition to his striking and has landed 9 takedowns on 20 attempts in his four UFC fights (45% accuracy), while also successfully defending the only attempt against him. He’s typically looking to finish fights with rear-naked chokes, which is how he locked up his last six submission victories, but he also has more than enough power to finish things on the feet.
Bekzat Almakhan
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Almakhan is the latest Kazakh fighter to join the UFC, and he comes in on an eight fight winning streak, with seven of those ending early. His last win came two seconds before the final horn in a third round TKO against a 5’2” opponent. Prior to that, we saw Almakhan nearly get knocked out early in a fight, before coming back to land a knockout of his own with a head kick in the opening seconds of round two. That came after Almakhan got split open with a vicious elbow in his previous fight, where he hung on to win a decision. That’s amazingly the only time he’s ever seen the scorecards in a three-round fight, which is surprising based on his slower paced, wrestling-heavy style.
Almakhan’s record varies depending on where you look, and he’s listed at 14-1 or 17-1 depending on where you look. We’ll go with 14-1, but who knows what his actual record is based on that discrepancy. Now 14-1 as a pro, Almakhan has 12 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and one decision victory. The only loss of his career was a 2020 second round submission.
Overall, Almakhan has shown good wrestling and decent striking, although he did get hurt on the feet in two of his last three fights, so he has shown some durability concerns, even if he’s never been knocked out. However, his defensive wrestling looks stout and he’s also done a good job of landing takedowns of his own and controlling opponents on the mat. He doesn’t appear to be much of a submission threat and is more so looking for ground and pound on the mat. He’s patient with his striking and isn’t a guy you should expect to put up big striking totals. We’ve seen some of these Kazakhstan fighters look really impressive on the regional scene, but then struggle in the UFC, so Almakhan will need to prove he belongs in the big show before we can really get behind him.
Fight Prediction:
Nurmagomedov will have a 1” height advantage and is two years older than the 26-year-old Almakhan.
As the insanely lopsided odds suggest, Nurmagomedov looks to have Almakhan covered everywhere, even though Almakhan seems to be a decent fighter. Almakhan has looked hard to takedown and even tougher to control, but has shown some durability concerns on the feet. So while Nurmagomedov has seven submission wins and only two knockouts on his record, this looks like a better spot for him to land a knockout than a submission. With that said, he could still likely outgrapple Almakhan if he’s dead set on that approach, but he just landed his first knockout win in the UFC and never attempted a takedown in that fight, which are both indicators that he may be okay with keeping this fight standing. While Almakhan isn’t nearly as helpless as Nurmagomedov’s -1400 moneyline may lead you to believe, we still expect Nurmagomedov to finish him and we’ll say it comes via R1 head kick KO.
Our favorite bet here is “Umar Nurmagomedov KO” at +400.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Nurmagomedov continues to score well in DFS every time he steps inside the Octagon, with DraftKings totals of 114, 105, 105, and 112 in his four UFC fights. He’s shown the ability to finish opponents both on the mat or the feet, and even score well through his grappling without a finish. Now he checks in as a massive favorite against a UFC newcomer, so look for him to keep his undefeated record intact. However Almakhan’s slower pace and solid takedown defense, combined with Nurmagomedov’s sky-high price tag, will make it tougher for Nurmagomedov to return value without a very well timed finish. And even if Nurmagomedov lands another first round knockout, it’s still possible he gets priced out of the winning lineup. Considering this smaller slate and the fact that Nurmagomedov has been between 44% and 52% owned on DraftKings in each of his last three fights, we’re far more interested in ways that he fails than succeeds in tournaments. However, he still makes for a great play in small-field and low-risk contests, but you have no choice but to be underweight on him if you want to avoid a mind numbingly large split in tournaments. The odds imply Nurmagomedov has an 89% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Almakhan looks like a talented, well-rounded fighter who has good wrestling and decent striking. However, he doesn't land a ton of striking volume, which leaves him reliant on finishes or dominant wrestling performances to score well in DFS. He’s walking into a buzzsaw in his UFC debut and it’s hard to see him becoming the first fighter to ever defeat Nurmagomedov. This looks like a sacrifice spot for Almakhan to simply get his foot in the door and it would be surprising to see him even survive three rounds, let alone get his hand raised. We’ve seen him hurt in two of his last three fights and Nurmagomedov is incredibly dangerous. As the cheapest fighter on the card, we’re sure people will be curious in Almakhan’s chances of potentially serving as a value play in a loss as much as his actual chances of winning the fight, which are both incredibly low. Nurmagomedov absorbs a comically low 0.73 SSA/min and has never been taken down in the UFC. So it’s hard to see Almakhan making much of a dent in the stat sheet and we don’t have much interest in playing him, despite his low ownership and salary. The odds imply Almakhan has an 11% chance to win, a 6% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Muhammad Mokaev
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Keeping his undefeated record intact, Mokaev is coming off a third round submission win over Tim Elliott in a fight where two of the three judges somehow had Elliott ahead. Mokaev took Elliott down three times and controlled him for eight and a half minutes, while also nearly slamming him unconscious in the second round. Mokaev also led in total strikes 118-71, while Elliott was ahead in significant strikes 30-14. That was Mokaev’s second straight close call after he was nearly submitted in the third round of his previous fight from a kneebar attempt that would have left 99.9% of the roster tapping. However, he paid the price for those heroics, as he left the fight with a grade 2 partial MCL tear. However, it looked a lot worse at the time and the injury only required six to eight weeks of recovery time. Mokaev also came into that fight with a shoulder injury, so perhaps the time off is just what he needed after he competed four times in his first year in the UFC. Mokaev exploded onto the UFC scene in March 2022 in front of his home London crowd with a 58 second submission win over Cody Durden. He followed that up with a dominant wrestling-heavy decision win over Charles Johnson, before landing three straight third round submissions in his last three fights. Mokaev only turned pro in 2020, but had a lengthy 23-0 undefeated amateur career from 2015 to 2020 and was regarded by many as the best amateur in the world. After winning both of his amateur fights in early 2020, including the IMMAF Bantamweight Championship, he won his first four pro fights that year as well. He then won two fights in 2021 and had a third match ruled a No Contest for an accidental groin strike. He said his goal was to become the youngest UFC champion of all time, which drove him to fight through injuries and compete as often as possible, although that dream no longer appears possible even with a win here.
Now 11-0 as a pro, Mokaev is still undefeated with two wins by TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. Both of his TKO wins ended in round one, while four of his submission victories ended in round three, with the other two coming in the first two rounds. Mokaev started his career at 135 lb, but all of his UFC fights have been at 125 lb.
Overall, Mokaev is a celebrated wrestler and highly touted prospect who’s still just 23 years old and should be improving all the time. He’s extremely fluid with his transitions and is relentless with his takedown attempts. He’ll seamlessly chain takedowns together and does a good job of quickly reverse positions. He’s not helpless on the feet either, but his wrestling is what got him to the UFC. In his five UFC fights, he landed 25 takedowns on 47 attempts (53.2% accuracy), while he‘s also been taken down on all three of his opponents’ attempts. He’s yet to land more than 21 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorb more than 30 and only averages 1.12 SSL/min and 1.19 SSA/min. With a statement win here, Mokaev will position himself to potentially jump the line and get the next title shot against Pantoja in Brazil 10 weeks from now.
Alex Perez
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Perez has been submitted in the first round of his last two fights, but in fairness those losses came against two of the best Flyweights in the world in Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo. Neither of those fights even made it to the two minute mark, with Figueiredo locking up a guillotine and then Pantoja taking Perez’s back on the feet and securing a rear-naked choke. Other than getting submitted, Perez’s biggest issue has been inactivity and canceled fights and he’s only fought once since November 2020. Following the loss to Figueiredo, Perez had six booked matchups fall through, with only two of those being Perez’s fault. And following his loss to Pantoja, Perez had three more fights fall through, so amazingly, eight of his last nine booked fights have been canceled. It looked like he would finally return to action against Manel Kape last March, but dropped out after the slate had started due to a medical issue. Perez’s last four fights that actually took place all ended in the first round and the last time he saw round two was in a 2019 decision in a 135 lb fight (opposed to 125 lb where he normally competes). Prior to his loss to Figueiredo, Perez landed a R1 TKO by leg strikes against Jussier Formiga after submitting Jordan Espinosa in the first round.
Now 24-7 as a pro, Perez has five wins by KO, seven by submission, and 12 decisions. He’s been knocked out once, has five submission losses (three by guillotine), and one decision defeat. All six of those early losses occurred in round one. Perez has won 11 of his last 14 fights, with eight of those fights ending in the first round (5-3), one ending in round two (1-0), and five going the distance (5-0). Two of Perez’s nine UFC fights have been up at 135 lb, both of which he won, including a R2 submission in his 2017 UFC debut and a 2019 decision over Mark De La Rosa. After dropping down to 125 lb and winning a 2018 decision in his second UFC appearance, Perez’s last six fights down at 125 lb have all ended in the first round (3-3). Perez also landed a first round submission win on DWCS, which was also at 125 lb.
Overall, Perez has a background in wrestling but is also a decent striker and he throws really heavy leg strikes. He has only been taken down twice on nine opponent attempts between his nine UFC fights and DWCS appearance (77.8% defense), but has only faced one attempt in his last five matches. On the other side of things, he’s landed 11 takedowns of his own on 25 attempts (44% accuracy). However, while his wrestling is good, his defensive jiu jitsu has been far less impressive and he’s been really prone to getting submitted. It seems like he panics once opponents lock anything in and tends to quickly tap. With so little Octagon time in the last few years, it’s tougher to know what we can expect from Perez at the moment, making him somewhat of a wildcard. Obviously he’s a guy to keep an eye on during, before, and after weigh-ins. Then just pray he doesn’t drop out mid-slate again.
Fight Prediction:
Mokaev will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being eight years younger than the 31-year-old Perez.
This is the perfect matchup to test Mokaev right now. Perez’s last two losses were against the former and current Flyweight champions, immediately adding to his credibility. While he’s struggled with inactivity, he’s a good wrestler and also dangerous on the feet, however, he’s also been very prone to getting submitted. So Perez may not be easy to take down, but once you get him down there’s a good chance you’ll be able to submit him and all six of his early losses ended in round one. Perez throws damaging leg kicks and if Mokaev can’t take him down or find his way to Perez’s back on the feet, he could be in real trouble, which adds to the appeal of this matchup from a spectating standpoint. We believe the UFC has been trying to use Perez to build up potential contenders (Askarov, Pantoja, Albazi, Kara-France, Kape, and now Mokaev) and the last thing they want is Perez himself competing for the belt again considering how unreliable he is. They’re trying to set up Mokaev for a big finish against a highly ranked opponent so they can justify giving Mokaev a title shot against Pantoja in Brazil. Obviously that doesn’t mean Mokaev is guaranteed to win, but they wouldn’t have given him the matchup if they didn’t like his chances. We like his chances too and think he lands a highlight finish and then fights Pantoja next. It most likely comes via submission, but Perez’s timing could be off after so long away and it wouldn’t be totally shocking to see Mokaev catch him with a flying knee or something early on. Either way, we like Mokaev to finish him at some point in this fight. While Mokaev’s last three finishes all ended in the third round, we’re expecting this one to end sooner.
Our favorite bet here is “Muhammad Mokaev ITD” at +120.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Mokaev has averaged an impressive 114 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with three scores of 120 or more. The only time he failed to crack the century mark was in a third round submission win in his second most recent fight, where he entered the match with a shoulder injury and then suffered a partial MCL tear in round three. Just surviving the kneebar attempt that tore his knee up was impressive, let alone the fact that he then secured a submission of his own before the fight ended. His other two most recent wins also ended in third round submissions, where he scored 122 and 102 points respectively. So even with late finishes, he’s still shown the ability to score well. At his expensive salary, there are obviously still ways he scores well and gets priced out of winning lineups, but he has massive scoring potential and this looks like a good spot for him to find a finish. The odds imply Mokaev has a 75% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Perez has consistently scored well when he wins, as he’s averaged 107 DraftKings points in his six UFC victories. Even in his two decision wins, he still managed to score 97 and 87 points as he averages 2.8 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Four of his six UFC wins have come early, with his last three finishes occurring in the first round. However, he’s been submitted in the first round in each of his last two fights and hasn’t won a match in nearly four years. He’s been so inactive in recent years that it’s hard to gauge his current form, and now he faces another dangerous opponent. Perez has been very prone to getting submitted, which leaves him as a volatile DFS option as he faces a slick grappler who’s submitted three straight opponents. Perez obviously has experience on his side, as well as a striking advantage, but it just seems like he’s destined to fail here. The fact that he dropped out of his last fight after the slate had already started is also concerning, and you can’t even count on him showing up to a fight, let alone winning. A large portion of the MMA community is still not buying into Mokaev, which should result in Perez being pretty popular at his cheap price tag. That lowers his tournament appeal some, but if he does win he’ll likely end up in winning lineups. The odds imply Perez has a 25% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Vitor Petrino
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Still undefeated as a pro, Petrino is coming off a first round knockout win over Modestas Bukauskas, who’s been finished in five of his six career losses, with four ending in knockouts. Petrino took Bukauskas down in the first round of that low-volume fight and controlled him for a half a round, before landing a walk off check left hook a minute into round two. Prior to that, Petrino locked up the first submission win of his career, in the third round against a one-dimensional striker in Marcin Prachnio. Petrino appeared determined to showcase his grappling in that match, and it looked like he easily could have knocked Prachnio out if he wanted to. Petrino had Prachnio hurt at multiple points on the feet, but then opted to take him down repeatedly. Petrino landed four of his six takedown attempts with almost nine minutes of control time, before submitting Prachnio late in the third round, after a couple of failed submission attempts in round two. Just before that win, Petrino saw the judges for just the second time in his career as he won a decision in his UFC debut against Anton Turkalj. Petrino impressively landed seven takedowns in that fight and also had four reversals on the mat. Petrino originally punched his ticket to the UFC with a second round knockout victory on DWCS in 2022 against Rodolfo Bellato. Just before going on DWCS, Petrino knocked out former UFC fighter Gadzhimurad Antigulov, also in the second round, and Petrino’s last five fights all made it to the second round, but only one of those required the judges.
Now 10-0 as a pro, Petrino has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. The first four knockouts of his career came in round one, while the last three ended in round two. His one submission victory ended in round three and his last four finishes all occurred in the later rounds, after his first four ended in round one. Four of his 10 career wins came against opponents with a combined 1-23 pro record, and two more of his victories were against the same opponent (Rodolfo Bellato), who he defeated for the second time on DWCS. All three of his UFC opponents currently have losing records with the organization and we’ve yet to see him really be tested.
Overall, Petrino is a young 26-year-old Brazilian kickboxer who has added a lot of muscle over the course of his career and has really heavy hands. He’s also really developed his grappling game at team CM System in Brazil and has consistently been looking to wrestle in the UFC. His cardio has also looked better lately, so he’s been making improvements across the board and will be a guy to keep an eye on. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 12 of his 17 takedown attempts (70.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 19 attempts (68.4% defense). We haven’t seen a ton of striking volume in any of his UFC fights and he only averages 3.07 SSL/min and 2.65 SSA/min.
Tyson Pedro
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Pedro recently landed a first round knockout win in front of his home Australian crowd against a struggling Anton Turkalj, who’s now 0-3 in the UFC. To Pedro’s credit that was the first time Turkalj had ever been knocked out and it only took 132 seconds. Pedro’s second most recent fight was also in Australia, when he lost a decision to an unimpressive Modestas Bukauskas in early 2023. In fairness to Pedro, he said he was sick in his loss to Bukauskas and he looked much better in his last fight. That loss came after Pedro landed back-to-back first round knockouts against two of the worst fighters the UFC has ever seen in Harry Hunsucker and Isaac Villanueva. Leading up to those finishes, Pedro hadn’t competed since December 2018 when he blew out his knee against Mauricio Rua and was finished in the third round following the injury in the only KO/TKO loss of his career. Pedro then dealt with multiple knee surgeries as he tried to work his way back from the injury. Looking back before the setback, Pedro started his pro career in 2013 with six straight first round finishes, including a 2016 submission win over Khalil Rountree in Pedro’s UFC debut, followed by a 2017 R1 TKO win over Paul Craig. Pedro then made it past the first round for the first time in his career and lost a 2017 decision to Ilir Latifi. Pedro bounced back in February 2018 with a first round submission win against Saparbek Safarov, but was then submitted himself in the first round by Ovince St. Preux in June 2018 leading up to his loss to Rua. In each of those early losses, Pedro looked close to winning the fights in the first round, but was unable to close things out.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Pedro has five wins by KO/TKO and five submissions, with all 10 of his victories ending in the first round. He has one TKO loss, one submission defeat, and lost both of the two decisions he’s been to. Eleven of his 14 career fights ended in round one (10-1), while he’s 0-3 in fights that lasted longer than five minutes.
Overall, Pedro holds black belts in both Japanese and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as Kempo. While he’s a decent grappler, Pedro has only landed four takedowns on 11 attempts (36% accuracy) in the UFC and two of those came in his UFC debut. Since then he’s gone 2 for 9 on his attempts. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 9 of their 19 attempts (52.6% defense), and the last three fighters to attempt more than one takedown against him landed multiple of their attempts. Pedro has decent power and throws good leg kicks, but he’s pretty patient and only averages 3.11 SSL/min and 2.53 SSA/min. He’s still never won a fight that lasted longer than five minutes, but he’s only seen the second round three times in his career and got injured in one of those. He’s been training at City Kickboxing and his striking looked good in his last fight, but now he’ll get his toughest test since returning from his knee injury.
Fight Prediction:
Pedro will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while also being six years older than the 26-year-old Petrino.
This is a step up in competition for both fighters and a good test for each of them. They’ve both fought Modestas Bukauskas and Anton Turkalj in their last three outings and Petrino won a decision over Turkalj and knocked out Bukauskas in the first round, while Pedro knocked out Turkalj in the first round and lost a decision to Bukauskas. However, we saw Petrino in trouble at multiple points against Turkalj, showing some potential defensive liabilities. While Petrino went on to win a decision there and then land a pair of finishes against low-level opponents in his next two fights, he also got knocked down on DWCS and has had some close calls, despite not facing any high-level opponents yet. He’s been looking to wrestle in all of his UFC fights, but also didn’t face any dangerous submission threats in those fights, whereas Pedro is a BJJ black belt. It will be interesting to see if Petrino still looks for takedowns, as he’ll be at risk of getting submitted if he does. Pedro hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018, but has also only been taken down by one of his last six opponents since then and doesn’t land many takedowns of his own. So there haven’t been a ton of opportunities either. If the fight remains standing, Petrino can get a little wild with his striking at times, throwing a lot of big looping haymakers, while Pedro is more technical. When it comes to cardio, Pedro has only seen the second round three times in his career, losing all three of those fights. In the most recent of those losses, he didn’t look good in the later rounds, but was also apparently sick. Meanwhile, Petrino seems like a guy that should gas out, but has shown the ability to continue pushing deep in fights and his last four finishes all occurred in the later rounds. That makes it tougher to trust Pedro in a longer fight, but maybe he can show improvements in that area. Despite Petrino being undefeated and Pedro having two early losses on his record, Pedro looks like the more durable fighter and he has a good shot at finishing Petrino here. However, if he can’t get him out of there early, there’s a good chance we see Pedro slow in the later rounds and either get finished himself or lose a decision. We’re excited to see how this one plays out and can envision it going multiple different ways, but forced to choose, we’ll say Pedro hurts Petrino on the feet in round one, forces a desperation takedown, and then locks up a submission to hand Petrino the first loss of his career.
Our favorite bet here is “Tyson Pedro SUB” at +1400.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Petrino is a powerful striker who has also shown the ability to rack up takedowns and finish opponents on the mat. He’s undefeated as a pro and 8 of his 10 wins ended early. He averaged 105 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins and actually put up his biggest score in a decision win in his UFC debut, where he was able to score 116 DraftKings points. Just keep in mind he had to land seven takedowns and four reversals to get there. He only averages 3.07 SSL/min and 2.65 SSA/min and we’ve yet to see him land more than 44 significant strikes in a fight. He scored 104 DraftKings points in a wrestling-heavy third-round submission win in his second UFC fight and then only 94 points in an early second round knockout most recently. So he’s shown both a solid floor and ceiling, but he also hasn’t faced much in the way of competition. He’ll get a tougher test here in Tyson Pedro, who’s a BJJ black belt and will be more of a threat on the mat than any of Petrino’s previous UFC opponents. Pedro is also dangerous on the feet so there’s no easy path to victory for Petrino and we should see him tested here. Despite this being the toughest matchup of his career, we expect Petrino to once again be popular in DFS, which further lowers his appeal on this smaller slate where it will be much more of a challenge to create unique lineups in tournaments. The odds imply Petrino has a 75% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Pedro has amazingly still never won a fight that made it out of the first round, with all 10 of his career wins coming in under five minutes. He averaged 107 DraftKings points in his six UFC victories and the only time he failed to reach 103 points was in a 2018 submission that only scored 96. It wouldn’t be surprising to see something similar here, as Petrino has been looking to wrestle a ton and Pedro is a BJJ black belt with half of his career wins coming by submission. We’ve also seen Petrino hurt on the feet at multiple points and Pedro’s last three wins all ended by knockout, leaving Pedro with multiple ways to finish this fight. At his cheap price tag, he doesn’t need to put up a huge score to be useful, so it should be fine if he “only” scores 96 points in a defensive submission. However, neither of these two fighters land much in the way of striking volume so there is the potential for this to turn into a slow paced tactical battle where a later round finish or decision could score really poorly if it doesn’t get propped up by wrestling stats. That at least creates the potential for this popular fight to bust. The odds imply Pedro has a 25% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Shamil Gaziev
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Gaziev just made his UFC debut in December, where he opened the final card of 2023. He closed as a slight underdog against Martin Buday, after the line moved in Gaziev’s favor. Buday looked terrible in the fight and was overwhelmed by the pressure of Gaziev, who split Buday open in the first round pretty badly, before forcing a standing TKO in the opening minute of round two as Buday simply shelled up. Gaziev finished ahead 49-8 in significant strikes, while Buday went 0 for 2 on his takedown attempts. Just three months prior to that, Gaziev secured a first round submission win on DWCS, and remains undefeated in his career. However, he also only turned in late 2020 and has fought a lot of dubious competition. He landed a quick knockdown in the opening seconds of his DWCS fight, but then had his back taken on the mat before reversing the position and working his way to a rear naked choke midway through the first round. Despite that fight ending so quickly, Gaziev was exhausted in his post fight interview, just like in his UFC debut. Before going on DWCS, Gaziev landed a first round knockout against former UFC fighter Darko Stosic, a name that seemingly adds some credibility to Gaziev’s record, at least until you remember that Stosic went 1-3 in the UFC at LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT, and is severely undersized when competing at Heavyweight. Looking back one fight further, Gaziev landed another knockout in the opening minute of round two, something he’s done three times in his career. Only once has he been in a fight that made it past the six minute mark, which was a 2022 split decision win where Gaziev started strong before nearly dying of exhaustion and limping his way to the judges through desperation lay and pray. He could barely stand up as they read the scorecards in that fight and nearly got submitted via kimura in the second round.
Now 12-0 as a pro, Gaziev has eight KO/TKO wins, three submissions, and one decision victory. He has five first round knockouts and three in the opening minute of round two. All three of his submission wins ended in first round rear naked chokes.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Gaziev’s career and he has at best a seven minute gas tank, probably less if you make him work at all.
Overall, Gaziev was born in Dagestan, where he took the road less traveled and became part of the national volleyball team. He then got recruited to MMA by the famous Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov. Gaziev started training in MMA when he was 15 years old and stuck with it until he was 19, but then stepped away from the sport for the next decade, before returning to it when he was 29 and then turned pro a year later in late 2020. He’s spent a little bit of time training with Ciryl Gane, although you wouldn’t guess it by watching him fight. Gaziev has some of the worst cardio you’ll ever see and begins to fade after the opening minutes of fights. By the middle of the second round he becomes essentially useless. While he does have good power in his hands and okay wrestling, he’ll never make it very far in the UFC unless he improves his cardio and he’ll be a sitting duck in the back half of fights when he’s unable to land an early finish. It won’t take long for Gaziev’s fraudulent undefeated record to get exposed at the UFC level and it’s utterly amazing that he’s headlining a card in his second fight with the organization.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Looking to bounce back from a first round submission loss to Jailton Almeida, Rozenstruik is just 1-3 in his last four fights and only 3-5 in his last eight. His last win was in 2022 and he hasn’t put two wins together since 2019. However, his losses have all come against elite competition in Jailton Almeida, Alexander Volkov, Curtis Blaydes, Ciryl Gane, and Francis Ngannou. Everytime Rozenstruik gets a step down in competition, he knocks them out and only once in his career has he lost back-to-back fights. Prior to getting submitted by Almeida, Rozenstruik knocked out Chris Daukaus in just 23 seconds, following a R1 TKO loss of his own in a questionably quick stoppage against Alexander Volkov in a June 2022 main event. Just before that, Rozenstruik lost a three-round decision to Curtis Blaydes after knocking Augusto Sakai out in the final second of round one. The only other losses of Rozenstruik’s career were a 2021 five-round decision against Ciryl Gane and a 2020 R1 KO loss to Francis Ngannou. All seven of Rozenstruik’s UFC wins have ended in knockouts, as did five of his six wins before joining the organization.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Rozenstruik has 12 wins by KO/TKO and one split decision victory, which was in 2018, a year before he joined the UFC. Nine of his knockout wins ended in round one, two came in round two, and one ended in round five. He also has two R1 KO/TKO losses on his record, one first round submission defeat, and two decision losses.
This will be the 7th five-round fight of Rozenstruik’s career, and 6th in the UFC. The first time he was scheduled to go five rounds was in his last fight before joining the UFC and he knocked his opponent out in just 10 seconds. Rozenstruik’s first UFC five-round fight was against Alistair Overeem in 2019. Overeem won the first three rounds on all three judges’ scorecards and just needed to survive to win a decision, but Rozenstruik landed a lip-splitting last second KO with four seconds left in the 5th round to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The next time Rozenstruik headlined a card was in 2021 against Ciryl Gane, who defeated Rozenstruik in a five-round staring contest where Rozenstruik only landed 42 significant strikes in 25 minutes (1.68 SSL/min). Unphased, the UFC immediately put him right back in another five-round matchup, this time against an easier opponent in Augusto Sakai, and Rozenstruik landed a knockout with just a second left in the first round and finished ahead just 16-3 in significant strikes. His next main event ended in a R1 TKO loss to Alexander Volkov, while his most recent was the first round submission defeat against Jailton Almeida. Rozenstruik is 3-3 in five-round fights in his career and 2-3 in the UFC. While his first two UFC five-round fights lasted a combined 49 minutes and 56 seconds, his last three all ended in round one, taking a combined 10 minutes and 54 seconds.
Overall, Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional Surinamese kickboxer. He has zero desire to go to the mat and has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. He does have a 73% takedown defense, although only five opponents have actually tried to take him down and combined to land 10 takedowns on 37 attempts, with each of those opponents getting him down at least once. He’s always a threat to finish fights with a single blow, but doesn’t land much striking volume and only averages 2.81 SSL/min and 3.15 SSA/min. He’s lost all five of the fights where he’s been outlanded in the UFC, while he’s 7-0 when he holds a striking lead. He’s still only 35 years old and Heavyweights tend to have a longer shelf life, but it will be important for him to get back on track here.
Fight Prediction:
Gaziev will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 78” reach. Gaziev is a year younger than the 35-year-old Rozenstruik.
The UFC is doing the same thing here that they did with Abus Magomedov, who they also rushed into a main event in his second Octagon appearance following a quick knockout win. Although it seems like this time they ran out of options as this fight was not originally announced as the headliner, but instead upgraded a month after the matchup was announced. This card was also originally scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia, but due to how weak it was they moved it to the Apex. Whether that was the UFC’s decision or the Saudis rejecting it is unclear, but it kind of sounds like the latter, despite what Dana White says. That just shows you that no one is all that excited about Gaziev as a prospect.
Gaziev’s terrible gas tank leaves him reliant on landing finishes in the opening round and a half and going from Martin Buday to Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a massive step up in competition. On the flip side, this is one of the worst opponents Rozenstruik has faced in a while and looks like a get right spot for him as long as he can avoid getting finished early. It will be interesting to see if Gaziev looks to wrestle any, as we’ve seen him look for takedowns at times in the past, especially in his one longer fighter where he was exhausted and just trying to survive. Rozenstruik has struggled on the mat, but does have a 73% takedown defense and has much better cardio than Gaziev. So if this makes it into the second round and Gaziev does tire out and look to wrestle, Rozenstruik will be the fresher fighter and should be able to defend his attempts more easily because of that. We did see Gaziev shoot for an early takedown against an undersized Darko Stosic, but he failed to complete it and then never shot again in that fight. We also saw him look to immediately wrestle in his 2022 split decision win where he completely gassed out after finding early wrestling success. After his cardio failed him in round two, he just panic wrestled for the rest of the fight to squeak out the win and his opponent was also exhausted. If Gaziev comes in with a wrestling-heavy approach to this next fight, he could find some early success, but unless he finishes Rozenstruik on the mat in round one it will just guarantee that he gasses out in round two. That raises Rozenstruik’s chances of landing a mid-round knockout, although he’s very live to get a first round knockout as well if he can keep the fight standing. We’ll say Gaziev is able to get Rozenstruik down once in round one and control him for an extended period of time, before gassing out and getting knocked out by Rozenstruik in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Jairzinho Rozenstruik ML” at +150.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Gaziev is coming off an early second round TKO win that was only good for 96 DraftKings points, as he didn’t land a knockdown and the fight was stopped on the feet. Gaziev was already looking winded there and the fight didn’t even make it to the six minute mark. You have fighters that are built for five rounds and then on the other side of things you have Gaziev. While he does have the ability to wrestle and knockout power, his cardio will always be a problem and leaves him reliant on landing a finish in under a round and a half. He’s facing a big step up in competition here and seems to be overvalued based on his undefeated record and recent TKO win in his debut. This looks like an easy fade spot in all contest types and if he happens to catch Rozenstruik with something early on then so be it. The odds imply Gaziev has a 63% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Rozenstruik is your prototypical KO or bust fighter, with all seven of his UFC wins ending in knockouts. He averaged 110 DraftKings points in those seven wins, with three of them ending in 29 seconds or less and garnering the Quick Win Bonus. He still managed to score 97 and 94 points in his two second round knockouts, and 90 points in a fifth round finish. While those scores won’t jump off the page, at his underdog price that could still be enough for him to sneak into winning lineups, although that’s far from a certainty. To really score well, he’ll need a first round knockout and if this fight sees round two it will have the potential to get left out of the optimal lineup regardless of who wins. We have seen Gaziev look to wrestle early on in the past and Rozenstruik is terrible off his back, so it won’t be surprising if Gaziev slows the fight down in round one with his wrestling. If Rozenstruik then lands a mid round knockout and we have multiple other underdogs on the slate win, there will be a clear path for the main event to get left out of winning tournament lineups, which will be a useful way to reduce dupes on this painfully small slate. The odds imply Rozenstruik has a 67% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
Receive up to a $100 deposit bonus when you sign up with our promo code: MMADFS
Here's our top play on the house! For the rest of our PrizePicks plays, check out the DFS Cheat Sheet in our premium DFS content on: patreon.com/mmadfs.
Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
Vinicius Oliveira UNDER 50.5 SS
