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Fighter Notes:
Dustin Jacoby
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Jacoby is coming off a R1 KO in his triumphant return to the UFC, following nearly nine years away from the organization. He originally joined in 2011 at just 23 years old, but was let go after losing his first two fights—one in a decision and the other by a R3 Guillotine Choke. Following his departure, he went 6-3 in MMA fights with three R1 KO wins, three decision victories, one decision loss, a R2 KO loss, and a R2 submission loss. He also stepped away from MMA entirely to try kickboxing for a four year period from 2015 to 2019, where he also went 6-3—including a win over UFC fighter Karl Roberson.
Upon returning to MMA in 2019, Jacoby won a pair of decisions, including a high-volume win on DWCS this past August. In that fight, he put on an impressive striking display with 117 significant strikes landed while only absorbing 30. He also notched a knockdown and went 1 for 1 on takedowns, while impressively defending 10 of his opponents 11 takedown attempts. His striking looked remarkably improved since his 2011-2012 tape and his kickboxing experience was evident. Of some concern, he did look like he punched himself out late in the second round after starting the fight at an unsustainable pace. Despite the DWCS fight ending in a decision, Jacoby was still awarded a UFC contract.
He made the most of his newfound opportunity in the UFC and knocked out Justin Ledit midway through the first round in his recent match. Jacoby was able to knock Ladet down with a series of leg kicks and then land several heavy ground strikes before smartly stepping back, forcing Ledet to attempt to return to his feet, and then finishing him with one final strike just as he got back up.
Ten of Jacoby’s 13 career wins have come early, with nine KOs and one submission. Nine of those 10 finishes came in the first round. Three of his five career losses have also come early, with a 2012 R3 Guillotine Choke, a 2014 R2 KO and a 2015 R2 Rear-Naked Choke.
In Jacoby’s first stint with the UFC he fought at 185 lb, however he’s since moved up to 205 lb in his return to MMA. Jacoby acknowledged that he probably wasn’t ready for the UFC at 23 years old and lacked the confidence required. He says he’s in a much better place now and is ready to make a run.
Maxim Grishin
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Since getting knocked out in the 5th round of a 2011 fight, Grishin has impressively gone 19-2-2, with the two draws coming in weird two round tournament matches and the two losses coming against world beater Magomed Ankalaev and Heavyweight Marcin Tybura.
In his tough July 2020 UFC debut, Grishin stepped in on short notice and up a weight class as he gave up 29 pounds to his opponent Marcin Tybura. He was clearly undersized for the Heavyweight division at just 223 lb and Tybura took full advantage of the size difference as he pushed Grishin up against the cage for the majority of the fight.
He moved back down to Light Heavyweight for his second UFC match against Gadzhimurad Antigulov and finished the fight with a flurry of punches just before the end of the second round. In a slower paced fight than what was expected, Grishin outlanded Antigulov 34-12 in significant strikes and added on a takedown with over two minutes of control time. He also successfully defended 4 of Antigulov’s 5 takedown attempts.
Now approaching 37 years old and with pro 41 fights under his belt, Grishin came into the UFC very late in his career. He has 31 pro wins including 22 finishes (16 KO’s & 6 submissions). He has just eight losses in his 13 year pro career and half of those came in his first eight fights from 2008-2009. His four losses in the last decade have come by way of a 2011 R1 Rear-Naked Choke, a 2011 R5 KO, a 2016 R4 KO and then the recent R3 Decision in his UFC debut. So he’s certainly not an easy guy to finish and the only person to do so since 2011 was Magomed Ankalaev, who knocked Grishin out in R4 of their 2016 fight.
Grishin has a pair of 2-round draws in the last two years, which both came in the Professional Fighters League Playoffs. Disregarding those for a moment, Grishin won his last seven three-round fights prior to joining the UFC, with three KO’s (two in R1 & one in R3), one R2 Rear-Naked Choke submission and three decisions. His most recent win prior to joining the UFC was a 2019 R1 KO, which means his last two wins both came by knockouts in the first two rounds.
UPDATE: Grishin missed weight badly, coming in 4.5 lb over the limit.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Grishin will have a 2” reach advantage.
Jacoby is the more active striker, but Grishin will have the advantage in the grappling department and is the more experienced fighter. Grishin also appears to be the more durable of the two, having only been finished once in his last 23 fights. Jacoby offers crisp striking at all three levels and has been a solid R1 finisher, but if this fight makes it past the first round look for Grishin to take control. It looks like a tough spot for a finish, with Grishin’s only career R1 KO loss coming in 2009.
There’s some reason for concern with Jacoby’s cardio later in fights, which makes Grishin’s R2 (+1100) and R3 (+1600) win lines more interesting. Jacoby’s last two losses both came in the second round, and the third early loss of his career came in round 3. Two of Grishin’s last three finishes also came in the second round. Note: The big weight miss by Grishin is concerning, and has us less confident in him winning this fight. You may want to consider Jacoby’s R1 KO line at +500 now.
DFS Implications:
Jacoby is coming off a near best case scenario finish, where he got not one but two knockdowns to go along with a R1 KO. He put up a massive 119 DraftKings points and 137 points on FanDuel in his long awaited return to the UFC after nearly 9 years away. Despite the impressive performance, Jacoby appears to be a R1 or bust DFS play, with 9 of his 10 finishes coming in the first round and a questionable gas tank, which he emptied halfway through his most recent decision. In fairness to him, he still would have scored very well in that decision win (138 points on FanDuel and 107 on DraftKings) even after gassing out. The pace he set for the first half of that fight was insane and we don’t see him replicating that here. It’s very possible that he’s learned to pace himself and could still finish a fight in the second round, but in his 18 pro fights he has just one R2 win and that came all the way back in 2011. The oddsmakers have set his R1 win line at +400, implying just a 15% likelihood, while his R2 line comes in at +600 (10%). This sets up as a pace down spot, so we expect him to be even more reliant on a finish than normal to score well. In 39 pro fights, the only time Grishin has been knocked out in the first round was in his 5th pro fight all the way back in 2009.
Grishin is a patient low-volume counter striker, who appears generally reliant on finishes to score well. He landed just 18 significant strikes across 15 minutes of inaction in his ill-fated UFC debut up at Heavyweight, and then landed 34 significant strikes in two ticks under 10 minutes in his last bout. Even with a desirable late R2 KO, he still scored just 99 DraftKings points, although he did put up 113 points on FanDuel with the help of four takedowns defended. We don’t expect Jacoby to shoot for many, if any takedowns in this fight however. While it was tougher for Grishin to hit value priced at $9,100 in his last go around, now down at $7,700 the window is a bit wider. Jacoby should push the pace and force Grishin to throw more volume than he normally might. If Grishin can tack on some takedowns and control time, he still could be usable even with a third round finish. Things get dicier in a decision, and he would then likely need all the fighters priced around him to fail. His ITD line is +360, implying a lukewarm 18% chance he finishes things early. After being 41% owned on DraftKings the last time we saw him and then landing a R2 KO, it will be interesting to see how the field views him.
Ronnie Lawrence
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a September decision win on DWCS, Lawrence landed a ridiculous 12 takedowns on a Dvalishvili-esque 17 attempts in that fight. However, he didn’t really do much on the ground once he got there and only landed 28 significant strikes and 47 total strikes across 15 minutes of action. His opponent in that fight looked like a decent striker but had a nonexistent takedown defense, which appeared to be a major contributor for the result. Interestingly, after the fight Lawrence told Dana "I'll be better, bad weight cut."
In a recent interview, he claimed to have since resolved any weight cutting issues after bringing in outside help. Lawrence also notably said that he expects this next fight to end in another decision, which is how three of his last four matches have ended. Another noteworthy point he discussed was that he hadn’t entered his last fight with the plan of taking Johnson down that much. Maybe he’s just being coy, but expecting him to shoot for double digit takedowns in every fight is unreasonable. He also talked about his mobility, which was evident as he circled the Octagon when he wasn’t going for takedowns in his last match. Fighters that are content with circling away from action opposed to engaging in it can have disastrous effects on DFS scoring. Just look at some of Youssef Zalal’s fights, or Schnell vs. Nam, Edgar vs. Munhoz, etc. We’re not saying that’s how this fight plays out, but it’s something to consider when thinking about ways this fight fails in DFS.
Lawrence originally started his amateur MMA career off in 2012, but following his third amateur fight, which occurred in May 2013, he took two and half years off before making his pro debut in October 2015. Then, after starting his pro career off with a 3-1 record, he took another two and a half years off following his only career loss, which came in an October 2016 decision against current UFC fighter Steve Garcia. Since returning in February 2019, Lawrence has gone 3-0 with a 2019 R1 KO on the Kentucky regional scene, followed by a decision win in the LFA and then another decision win in his recent DWCS appearance. In his LFA win, Lawrence went 5 for 7 on takedowns while successfully defending both attempts against him. So in his last 30 minutes of cage time, he’s gone 17 for 24 on takedowns (8.5 takedowns/15 minutes).
Lawrence likes to throw a decent number of spinning back kicks, which is how he landed two of his three career KOs, but doesn’t seem to have exceptional striking with his hands. It would be surprising to see him willingly stand and trade with Cachero in close quarters. He’s never won by submission, nor has he ever been finished early, although he’s had just seven pro fights.
Vincent Cachero
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)After losing his ultra short notice UFC debut fighting up a weight class at 145 lb against Jamall Emmers, Cachero now drops back down to 135 lb, where he’s spent almost all of his pro career. He also now gets a full training camp. Emmers was able to get Cachero to the mat 5 times on 7 attempts, but he also had a noticeable size advantage and a background in wrestling.
Cachero won his last LFA fight before joining the UFC at 150 lb Catchweight against Marvin Garcia, who took the fight on 24 hours notice. Cachero did a good job of sprawling to stuff takedowns for the most part in that fight, but he did get taken down once early on.
Prior to the win over Garcia, Cachero lost a split decision to Liudvik Sholinian, who was a four-time Ukrainian national champion in wrestling. Cachero was able to stay upright in the first round, successfully defending all of Sholinian’s early attempts, but was eventually taken down multiple times in the next two rounds on the back of 13 attempts by the Ukrainian wrestler. However, overall Cachero’s takedown defense looked pretty decent in those last two fights before joining the UFC.
After winning his first six pro fights, Cachero’s first career loss came when he got knocked out in R1 of a Bantamweight title fight against Casey Kenney in 2019—who was actually fighting up a weight class after previously fighting at 125 lb. Kenney did move up to 135 lb when he joined the UFC for what it’s worth. That’s the only time Cachero has ever been finished.
Four of Cachero’s seven career wins have come early, with two KOs and two submissions. However, he’s never finished anyone in the first round, as three of those finishes came in R2 with the other coming in R3. Two of his three career losses have ended in decisions, with the one exception being the KO loss to Kenney.
Fight Prediction:
Lawrence will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 68” reach.
Cachero looks to have the advantage in striking, while Lawrence has been the far more active grappler. If Lawrence struggles to get Cachero to the ground, his best chance to win the fight will be to land another spinning back kick to the liver—which is really more of a hail mary play than something you can rely on. Cachero showed his toughness in his last match surviving three rounds of abuse. We like Cachero to bounce back from the loss in his debut and outstrike his way to a decision victory if he can stay off his back.
Cachero’s moneyline at +140 and “Wins by Decision” line at +235 are both in play.
DFS Implications:
With 12 takedowns and 10 min of control time, Lawrence’s DWCS would have scored 117 points on FanDuel and 124 points on DraftKings. However, he appears heavily reliant on huge takedown numbers and/or early finishes to score well in DFS, as his striking volume looks unimpressive at best. He also looks like a better play on DraftKings where he can score from control time and ground strikes. Lawrence should be decently popular based on his massive takedown numbers in his recent Contender Series fight, which adds even more intrigue to playing his opponent Cachero instead.
Just as we project recency bias to inflate Lawrence’s ownership, Cachero should fly under the radar in this spot. He had to pay his dues in his short notice UFC debut, which he took on just a day’s notice and up a weight class, but he still held his own. Now he gets a fair shake and could surprise people. He actually outlanded Emmers 121-113 in total strikes in his last fight, but Emmers won the significant striking battle 103-76 and tacked on five takedowns. Cachero has the potential to land large striking totals when he has a willing partner, which is the main question in this next match. Lawrence will be looking for takedowns and to land big spinning kicks opposed to engaging in a fire fight. That lowers Cachero’s scoring potential in a decision to some extent, but he should get the opportunity to defend a ton of takedowns, which makes him especially interesting on FanDuel.
Sabina Mazo
5th UFC Fight (3-1)After fighting her entire pro career at 125 lb, Mazo now moves up to 135 lb for the first time. Prior to her recent R3 submission win, she had fought to five straight decisions. Impressively, she has landed 108 or more significant strikes in her last three matches.
While Mazo has landed a ton of volume in her last few fights, she has been involved in back-to-back close matches. She was potentially even behind going into the third round of her last fight, but was able to knock her opponent, Kish, down with a sneaky right head kick hidden behind a right jab. Mazo immediately jumped on top and finished Kish with a Rear-Naked Choke, which was the first submission win of her young career. Mazo’s most dangerous weapon is her head kick, which is how she landed each of her two career KO victories (both in R1). She has really long legs that can quickly cover distance and do damage.
In her second most recent fight, she won a split decision over J.J. Aldrich. She outlanded Aldrich 118-58 in significant strikes, but the fight looked closer than the striking numbers would suggest. Prior to that close split-decision win, Mazo dominated Shana Dobson for 15 minutes, winning the significant striking battle 108-33 and tacking on four takedowns and nearly 11 minutes of control time. The judges ruled it a lopsided 30-25, 30-25, 30-24 in what was Mazo’s first UFC win.
Mazo’s only career loss came in a decision in her UFC debut. Even in that fight, she still outlanded her opponent 64-56 in significant strikes.
Mazo has the highest striking volume on the slate, not counting Kevin Croom, whose number is based on 31 seconds of action. While Mazo has only attempted four takedowns in four UFC fights—all against Shana Dobson and her 14% takedown defense—she did land all four. Davis notably has just a 32% takedown defense, but looks like the superior grappler so Mazo is less likely to want to take the fight to the ground..
Alexis Davis
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Coming off an extended layoff, Davis hasn't fought since July 2019 when she lost her third straight unanimous decision. Davis’ last win came in December 2017, and now at 36 years old, her UFC days could be numbered. Her last four fights were at 125 lb, but she fought at 135 lb prior to that. Her last five matches have all ended in decisions and she narrowly won two of those.
Her last win came in a grinding 15 minute controversial split decision, with over 12 minutes of combined control time (5:50 for Davis). Because of that, the majority of the strikes did not register as significant. Davis was outlanded in total strikes 191-132 and significant strikes 49-23. She also lost the takedown battle 4-1 and lost in control time 6:33 vs. 5:50, yet somehow won a split decision. The crowd did not agree with the decision and if you saw the massive swelling in Davis’s head it would be hard to argue she won anything.
Davis likes to make fights ugly, and isn’t one to encourage a firefight. A BJJ black belt, she generally prefers to mix things up in the clinch than out in open space. No one has landed more than 67 significant strikes against her in Davis’ 11 fight UFC career. She’s also failed to land above 72 significant strikes in a fight herself.
Two of her five UFC losses have come early, with a 16 second 2014 R1 KO loss against Ronda Rousey and a 2016 R2 Submission loss to Sara McMann. Five of her six UFC wins have ended in decisions with the one exception being a 2015 R2 Armbar against Sarah Kaufman, who is no longer in the UFC and has been submitted in three of her five career losses. While ten of Davis’ 19 career wins have come early (2 KOs & 8 submissions), 9 of those 10 finishes came prior to joining the UFC in 2013. Hilariously, one of Davis’ two career knockouts somehow came against a young Amanda Nunes back in the second round of their 2011 match. Her only other KO victory came in her second pro fight back in 2007.
Davis has been knocked out three times in her career. However, the first time was in the third round of her first pro fight back in 2007. The second was from a doctor stoppage in 2009 with 37 seconds to go in the fight, and the third time was against Ronda Rousey in 2014.
Fight Prediction:
Mazo will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Davis can’t win a striking battle here, so her only two paths to victory are a smothering grappling performance or finishing the fight with a submission. Mazo has a solid 83% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice on 12 attempts so far in the UFC. Mazo has also been very solid out of the clinch, using her long legs to throw violent knees. Mazo should win this fight easily if she can keep it on the feet, but could get in trouble on the ground. Davis is an experienced BJJ black belt and loves to make fights dirty. We expect to see extended periods of clinch time with these two ladies pushing each other up against the cage. Barring a hail mary Armbar submission for Davis or a perfectly placed head kick for Mazo, we expect this fight to end in a decision win for Mazo.
Mazo Wins by Decision at -105 is our preferred play here, but if you feel like getting crazy you can look at Mazo Wins by KO at +615 or Davis’ Submission line at +1000 (not recommended).
DFS Implications:
Mazo has put up big DFS totals in two of her three UFC wins, scoring 108 DraftKings points and a whopping 152 FanDuel points in her last match. While she only scored 81 DraftKings points and 91 on FanDuel in the fight prior to that, she put up 125 on Draftkings and 109 on FanDuel in her one-sided dismantlement of Shana Dobson back in 2019. A big reason that Mazo has scored so well on FanDuel lately is that 100% of her strikes were ruled as significant in her last match and 97.5% in the fight before that. So if for any reason the scorekeepers decide to dial back what counts as significant she could take a hit. This is somewhat of a tricky spot for DFS as Mazo is a high-upside play, but Davis has the potential to make this fight ugly and dramatically lower the scoring ceiling. While Davis has lost her last three fights, none of those opponents put up usable DFS scores and there’s a good chance this is a let down spot for Mazo coming off a big performance. Since she’s less likely than normal to put up a huge striking total, Mazo could end up needing a finish to score well. WIth her ITD line set at +400, she has roughly just an 18% implied chance to land one.
Davis has never been one to score well in DFS. Her highest DraftKings score in her last 10 fights was just 91 points, with her last five wins scoring only 82, 73, 91, 82 and 64 points. She only has a total of three takedowns in her last six fights and has never landed above 72 significant strikes. Unless the entire slate busts around her, she likely needs a finish to put up a usable score, and her ITD line comes in dead last on the slate at +775, implying roughly just a 10% chance.
Alexander Hernandez
7th UFC Fight (4-2)After getting beatdown and knocked out by a superior Drew Dober last May, Hernandez bounced back with an impressive R1 KO of Chris Gruetzemacher, who was coming off a two and a half year layoff and had lost two of his last three fights. Hernandez has alternated wins and losses over his last five fights and has struggled to sustain momentum following a win.
Hernandez made a name for himself in the UFC in his 2018 debut with a flukey 42 second R1 KO against tough veteran Beneil Dariush, who hasn’t lost a fight since—including a submission win over Drew Dober who dominated Hernandez. Hernandez showed his true colors in the opening seconds of his introduction to the UFC, starting the fight with a fake touch of gloves kick to the body cheapshot. Unsurprising, Hernandez says he idolizes T.J. Dillashaw.
Hernandez followed up his debut with a low-volume three round decision win in his next fight, before getting knocked out by Donald Cerrone on the undercard of Hernandez’s man crush Dillashaw. He must have been devastated, and to make matters worse Dillashaw got knocked out in 32 seconds and then popped for PEDs and suspended. Tough night to be a scumbag.
Hernandez bounced back from a loss and narrowly beat Francisco Trinaldo in a three round staring contest, where both guys landed just 25 significant strikes and no takedowns. Following the win over Trinalda, Hernandez got knocked down a peg by Drew Dober in a R2 KO last May. Following the violent lesson, Hernandez appears like he may have at least gained an ounce of humility.
Hernandez is now 12-3 as a pro, with his three career losses coming in a 2013 decision against Jamall Emmers in Hernandez’s third pro fight, a R2 KO against Donald Cerrone in Hernandez’s third UFC fight, and a R2 KO against Drew Dober in Hernandez’s 5th UFC fight. Hernandez was a high school wrestler and is a BJJ brown belt.
"This should be a very fun fight."
-Dana White on Hernandez vs. Moises
Thiago Moises
6th UFC Fight (3-2)A BJJ black belt, Moises’ finally opened up his striking more in his recent decision win over Bobby Green. Despite Green outlanding Moises 85-42 in significant strikes and both fighters landing two takedowns, Moises was awarded a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Moises is now 3-2 in the UFC and 14-4 as a pro. Nine of his 14 career wins have come early, with three KOs and six submissions. All four of his career losses have gone the distance as he’s never been finished. Four of his five UFC fights have ended with the judges, with his only finish coming by R2 Achilles Lock against Michael Johnson in his second most recent fight.
Moises landed just one head-scratching significant strike in that R2 submission win over Michael Johnson. He had a terrible first round—in case you couldn’t tell from the one strike landed—but then immediately shot for a takedown to start R2 and ended it with a heel hook submission when he didn’t land the takedown.
Moises did survive to see a decision against Beneil Dariush in his 2018 UFC debut, but lost badly, with judges scores of 25-30, 25-30 and 26-30. So not much of a moral victory. Coincidentally that was Dariush’s first fight after getting knocked out by Hernandez.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’9” but Hernandez will have a 2” reach advantage.
Most of Hernandez’s fights have been striking battles, so it will be interesting to see how he handles a submission specialist like Moises. The only other submission specialist Hernandez has fought was Olivier Aubin-Mercier back in 2018. That fight ended in a low-volume decision with Hernandez going 4 for 10 on takedowns with seven minutes of control time and Aubin-Mercier going 2 for 6 on takedowns with just shy of 4 minutes of control time. For context, Aubin-Mercier has been struggling and has lost his last three fights.
Hernandez has never been submitted and Moises has never been knocked out (or submitted), so it will be fascinating to see how this one plays out. We could see a first for either of those or this could end up in another low-volume decision. It’s definitely possible that Moises gets overly enamored with his newfound striking ability and flies a little too close to the sun here, but we could also see Hernandez’s arrogance getting the best of him and make him think he can win this fight on the ground. In our opinion, the most likely three outcomes here are a Hernandez R1 KO, a Moises R2 Submission or a low-volume decision (likely for Hernandez).
Moises’ last four submission wins all came in the second round, as did Hernandez’s last two losses (both KOs). Our favorite bet here is Moises wins by R2 Submission at +2100. His anytime submission at +600 is also interesting and Hernandez’s R1 KO win at +700 isn’t terrible either.
DFS Implications:
Hernandez has been a R1 KO or bust play in DFS, with DraftKings scores of 112 and 128 in his two R1 finishes, but just 41 and 93 points in his two decision wins. The oddsmakers have set his R1 win line at +550, implying just an 11% chance he gets it done. His ITD odds are dramatically better at +130, implying a 37% chance, so it is possible he does get a later finish—at least according to the oddsmakers. However, Moises has never been finished early in 18 pro fights, so if Hernandez gets it done, he’ll be the first one.
Moises’ low-volume striking and lack of takedowns generally make him reliant on an early finish to score well in DFS. So it’s not ideal that he has just one R1 finish in 16 fights. He impressively scored the bare minimum 70 DraftKings points in his recent second round finish, landing a single significant strike to go with zero takedowns and zero seconds of control time. Truly amazing stuff. He did show signs of life in his second UFC fight, where he greatly benefited from the new DraftKings scoring system as he accrued eight minutes of control time and 115 total strikes to go along with four takedowns on his way to a 100 point performance. It’s that type of dominating wrestling performance he needs to score well in a decision. Moises’ ITD line is set at +375, implying just an 18% chance he gets a finish. His R1 win line is +1000, implying just a 7% chance.
Alex Caceres
23rd UFC Fight (12-10)Coming in on a three fight winning streak, Caceres defeated late replacement Austin Springer with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission the last time we saw him. That was just Caceres’ second finish since 2014 and the other one was due to an “Eye Injury.” That was also notably his first R1 win in his 22 UFC fights.
Caceres has gone 7-7 in his last 14 fights with five of those wins ending in decisions. Four of those seven losses have come early, three by Rear-Naked Choke. However, since 2018 he’s won four of his last five fights and knocked Chase Hooper from the ranks of the undefeated last June.
To put his recent wins in context, Springer looked terrible in Caceres’ last fight and Chase Hooper’s non-existent striking game was exposed in his match prior. While Caceres has looked decent lately, it appears he’s made the most of favorable situations. Over his extensive UFC career, he’s been a middle of the pack guy. He averages 4.15 significant strikes/minute and 0.6 takedowns/15 minutes.
Kevin Croom
2nd UFC Fight (0-0, NC)Croom was briefly announced as the replacement for Giga Chikadze to fight Caceres back in August, but was then also pulled from the match and Austin Springer quickly stepped in before getting abruptly choked out. Croom didn’t have to wait long however, as he was given a second opportunity to join the UFC just two weeks later against Roosevelt Roberts, who came in as the biggest favorite on the slate. Despite taking the fight on just a day’s notice and fighting up a weight class, Croom dropped Roberts with a left hook just seconds into the fight and then locked up a Guillotine Choke to close things out as Roberts got up. The entire fight lasted just 31 seconds. Unfortunately for Croom, he tested positive for THC after the fight and the win was later overturned to a “No Contest.”
After making his debut at 155 lb, this next fight will be back down at 145 lb where Croom normally fights. He actually fought Justin Gaethje at a 159 lb Catchweight all the way back in 2011 in Gaethje’s pro debut—which Gaethje won in R1 with a KO by slam—but other than that Croom had fought his entire career between 135 lb and 145 lb. Croom also notably fought Darrick Minner in 2018 and defeated him with a R2 KO.
Eight of Croom’s 11 unofficial submission wins (we’re including the one that was recently overturned) have come in the first round. Caceres’ last loss was a R1 sub and 7 of his 8 early losses have been by submission.
Prior to joining the UFC, Croom’s last six submission wins all came by Rear-Naked Choke, including five in the first round. Five of Caceres’ seven career submission losses have also been by Rear-Naked Choke (2 in R1, 3 in R2 & 2 in R3), with his most recent also coming in the first round.
Croom has 34 pro fights under his belt, including 17 (unofficial) early victories with 6 KO’s and 11 (unofficial) submissions. His losses are evenly distributed between KO’s (4), Submissions (4) and Decisions (4).
Fight Prediction:
Croom will have a 1” height advantage but both fighters share a 73” reach.
Croom looks like a wiry scrapper who specializes in choking out opponents. He does have six KOs on his record, but only one in his last 11 fights going back to 2016. He’s won his last four fights—if you include his UFC debut—with two R1 submissions wins and two by decision. Caceres comes in on a three fight winning streak of his own, with two of his last three losses coming by Rear-Naked Choke in the first two rounds. Caceres has only been knocked out once in 29 pro fights, but has been submitted seven times—five by Rear-Naked Choke. In case we didn’t drive this point home enough, we like Croom to pull the upset and land another early submission here.
We like Croom’s submission line at +500 as well as his R1 submission line at +1200 and to a slightly lesser degree his R2 submission line at +1600
DFS Implications:
Caceres looks overpriced in DFS when you look at his point production. He still only scored 98 DraftKings points in his recent R1 submission win, and has only one score higher than that going back to 2016. With just one first round finish in 22 UFC fights and average striking and takedown numbers, playing Caceres in DFS requires a leap of faith that he’ll put up a career performance here, which we’re not willing to make. However, Croom has been finished early in five of his last six losses and remains more or less an unknown at the UFC level.
Croom’s 31 second submission win in his UFC debut was good for 127 DraftKings points and 123 points on FanDuel, however it was expunged from his record after he tested positive for THC. That sucks for him, but it’s great for us, as it helps to keep him a little more under the radar in this spot. Priced at just $7,400 on DraftKings and $10 on FanDuel, Croom has the potential to be the highest scoring fighter on the slate if he can land another early submission. This seems like a good spot for it, maybe a little too good, but we’ll find out Saturday.
Angela Hill
14th UFC Fight (7-9)Coming off her second straight split decision loss and third in her last nine fights, the judges have not been kind to Hill. Twelve of Hill’s 16 UFC fights have gone the distance, with the four exceptions being a 2015 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss, a 2019 R1 Armbar Submission loss, a 2019 R3 KO win and a 2020 R2 KO win.
Hill originally joined the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in just her second pro fight. However, after winning a decision in her 2014 debut she lost back-to-back fights against Tecia Torres in a decision and Rose Namajunas by R1 submission. Hill was then released from the UFC following her 2015 submission loss and went on to win four fights in a row in Invicta, including a pair of knockouts in the first two rounds. She was then re-signed by the UFC in 2017, where she fought to five straight decisions upon her return, alternating losses and wins. Hill then suffered what is just her second early loss in her career with another R1 submission, this time an Armbar against Randa Markos.
Since that 2019 submission loss, Hill has gone 4-3 with two KO wins (R2 & R3) and five fights that ended in decisions. After losing back to back split decisions now, you would have to think that Hill will be motivated to try and either finish things early or not make it close by the end. She’s now 36 years old and really can’t afford to go on a three fight losing streak.
Now 12-9 as a pro, five of her 12 wins have come by KO, while seven have been by decision. Only one of her five KO victories came in the first round and that was in 2016 in Invicta. Three of her knockouts have come in R2. On the other side of things, she’s never been knocked out, but she has been submitted twice.
Ashley Yoder
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Yoder has been a decision machine in the UFC with all eight of her fights going to the judges. Prior to joining the organization she did have four Armbar submissions wins, including three in the first round, but all four of those wins came in her first six pro fights. Her opponents in those fights entered with records of 0-2, 1-3, 0-0 and 6-2. Yoder is 8-6 as a pro and has never been finished.
Upon entering the UFC in 2016, Yoder proceeded to lose her first three fights—including a 2017 decision to Angela Hill. In that fight, Hill outlanded Yoder 47-26 in significant strikes and tacked on one takedown en route to a low scoring decision. Yoder went 3 for 6 on takedowns.
Following the string of losses, Yoder kept her UFC hopes alive by winning her next two fights, but has since dropped two of her last three. Similar to Hill, Yoder has drawn the short end of the stick on the majority of her split decisions, only winning one of the three. Yoder is primarily a wrestler and doesn’t offer much in the striking department. The only way she’s been able to finish fights in the past has been through Armbar submissions.
Fight Prediction:
Yoder will have a notable 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
This sets up for another low-volume decision, similar to how their previous matchup played out. There’s a decent chance Yoder can get Hill to the mat at some point, with a very slight chance she finishes things with a submission. The real question will be whether or not she can control Hill on the ground for extended periods of time, which is likely what it would take to pull off the upset and win a decision. As long as things stay standing up, Hill should have the noticeable advantage on the feet. Also, Hill’s a smart fighter and will stand up out of top position on the ground if she feels a submission threat is imminent. She has no desire to keep the fight on the ground. We like Hill to win a low-volume decision here.
As we mentioned, Hill very likely wins a decision here, but if that doesn’t happen there are a few lines we’re looking at. Hill’s R2 KO line at +2000 is interesting based on the fact that three of her five knockouts have come in the second round and she tends to wear on her opponents opposed to knocking them out with a single strike. On Yoder’s side, we see value in her submission line at +1100, her R1 submission line at +3000, her decision line at +500 and even her moneyline at +300.
DFS Implications:
Hill throws a decent amount of striking volume, but has never landed more than one takedown in her 16 UFC fights. At $9,200/$21, volume alone isn’t enough for her to return value in a decision, so she’ll likely need a knockout in the first two rounds to be useful in DFS. Her overall ITD line is set at +450, implying just a 16% for a finish, while her R1 win line comes in at +800, implying just an 8% chance and her R2 line is set at +1000, implying just a 6% chance. The first time these two fought, Hill won a low-volume decision and scored just 63 DraftKings points. Really the only reasons to consider playing Hill in DFS is that she’s the biggest favorite on the slate and will be low owned.
Yoder has only scored above 65 DraftKings points twice in her eight UFC fights. The first time was in her 2019 decision win over Syuri Kondo where she landed 75 significant strikes and a takedown—but more importantly racked up a dominating 13 minutes of control time on her way to a career best 103 point performance. The second time was when she scored 90 DraftKings points in her most recent decision. She’s a major beneficiary of the new DraftKings scoring system as she amassed eight minutes of control time and 151 total strikes, but just 26 significant in her last fight. Hill has a solid 77% takedown defense and this looks like a tough matchup for Yoder to put up a ceiling performance. The odds imply Yoder has just a 24% chance to win this fight and an 11% chance to get a finish. She did sneak into the optimal DraftKings lineup the last time she fought, but it was on a 9 fight card and only two other underdogs on the slate won their fights, with one of them scoring even less than Yoder. In a tougher spot and on a slightly larger card, with what appears to be several live dogs to choose from, it’s less likely an average scoring decision win would be enough for Yoder to be useful in DFS. She’ll either need a dominating wrestling performance, which seems unlikely, or an early finish to return value on this slate.
Jimmie Rivera
11th UFC Fight (7-3)This fight had been scheduled for February 13th but got pushed back two weeks. It’s also a rematch of their 2015 bout, which Rivera won in a split decision. Rivera outlanded Munhoz 96-66 in significant strikes in that first fight and both guys failed to land a takedown—Munhoz on seven attempts and Rivera on three.
Rivera is coming off a hard fought decision win over a tough Cody Stamann in a fight that was put together on very short notice and therefore fought up a weight class at 145 lb. That’s the first time Rivera has fought at 145 lb in the UFC.
Rivera has recently gone through a gauntlet in the Bantamweight division, with consecutive fights against Marlon Moraes, John Dodson, Aljamain Sterling, Petr Yan and Cody Stamann. While he only went 2-3 over that murderer’s row, he had won 20 straight fights before the loss to Moraes. Eight of his last nine bouts have ended in decisions, and his last finish came in his 2015 UFC debut. The only time he’s been finished in 27 pro fights was the 2018 R1 KO against Moraes, where Rivera got dropped by an early head kick and then finished on the ground with a flurry of strikes to the side of his head. Eve then, Rivera got up immediately and tried to protest the stoppage.
Rivera is habitually involved in average to low-volume decisions and has amazingly only been taken down twice on 25 attempts across 10 UFC fights. He generally doesn’t add many takedowns of his own either, with just seven combined in his UFC career.
Pedro Munhoz
14th UFC Fight (8-5)Munhoz is coming off a pair of decision losses to Frankie Edgar and Aljamain Sterling. The most recent decision to Edgar was pretty suspect and it looked like Munhoz won the fight [Edgar truthers slam their laptops shut].
Prior to those two losses, Munhoz landed back to back R1 KO wins. Not counting his 2014 first round finish, which was overturned due to a failed drug test, Munhoz has five first round wins in the UFC—three by KO and two by Guillotine Choke. He’s well known for his dangerous Guillotine Choke and his opponents seem to be well aware of it—the last time he landed one was 2017. Four of his last six fights have ended in decisions. Just like Rivera, Munhoz recently lost a decision to Aljamain Sterling.
Munhoz has impressively never been finished in 23 pro fights. On the other side of things, 13 of his 18 pro wins have come early, with five KOs and eight submissions.
Fight Prediction:
Munhoz will have a 2” height advantage but Rivera will have a 3” reach advantage.
With just one early loss between them across 50 pro fights, Bantamweights don’t come much more durable. We see this playing out very similarly to the way it did the first time these two fought back in 2015, with Rivera winning another decision. On average, Rivera absorbs nearly half as many significant strikes as Munhoz and holds an elite 92% takedown defense.
We like Rivera Wins by Decision at +110.
DFS Implications:
The first time these two fought back in 2015, Rivera won a decision, but scored just 69 DraftKings points and 99 points on FanDuel, with the help of seven takedowns defended. Munhoz scored just 27 points in the losing effort. Rivera has three losses in the UFC. They’ve come against the current Bantamweight champion, Petr Yan, the current #1 contender, Aljamain Sterling, and the former #1 contender, Marlon Moraes. Yan scored 79 DraftKings points in a close decision win over Rivera and Sterling scored just 81 DraftKings points in another decision win. In River’s 10 UFC fights, only Marlon Moraes put up a big score against him, and it was due to a 33 second R1 KO. So outside of landing the one perfect shot on Rivera, no one has come close to putting up a good score, and the best have tried.
Outside of the R1 KO in his 2015 UFC debut, Rivera has scored above 71 DraftKings points just once, which was when he scored 92 points against Almeida in 2017 on the back of a pair of knockdowns and a pair of takedowns. Rivera could theoretically do something similar here, but Munhoz is a far tougher opponent than Almeida and we think it’s unlikely. Rivera would most likely need to be the first person to ever finish Munhoz and do it in the first round for a big score. His R1 win line is an anemic +1300, implying just a 5% chance. The only reasons to have any exposure to Rivera are A) that he most likely wins and B) he’ll be a low-owned leverage play on Munhoz. With that said, fading the fight overall looks like the better move.
Munhoz would also likely need a R1 finish here to put up a useful score. The oddsmakers have set his R1 win line at +650 implying just a 10% likelihood of that happening. With numerous big DFS scores on his statsheet, we think Munhoz will be a popular play despite his low chances to score well. This looks like a great spot to fade him and gain leverage on the field.
Mayra Bueno Silva
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Bueno Silva bounced back from her first career loss, which came in a March 2020 decision, with her 6th career first round finish in her last fight. She’s now 7-1 as a pro with five R1 submissions and one R1 “TKO” due to “Retirement” following the first round (probably scared of getting submitted).
Bueno Silva got her shot in the UFC after she landed a 62 second R1 submission win on DWCS back in 2018. She then followed that up with another R1 submission win in her 2018 UFC debut against a tough grappler in Gillian Robertson, who has never been submitted outside of that.
However, due to a pair of knee surgeries, Silva was forced to take a year and a half off following the win over Robertson. When she returned in 2020, she suffered her first career loss in a high-volume brawl against Maryna Moroz that ended in a decision. Bueno Silva showed that she’s not just a submission specialist in that fight and has pretty decent striking as well. She also showed that she has terrible striking defense, absorbing 139 significant strikes.
Montana De La Rosa
7th UFC Fight (4-2)De La Rosa is coming off her best striking performance to date, where she actually outlanded a really tough Viviane Araujo 85-82 in significant strikes (5.67 SSL/min.), but lost a unanimous decision. The decision was entirely fair, as Araujo clearly did more damage as she busted up the nose (ongoing issue) of De La Rosa and seriously compromised her lead leg with 13 heavy leg strikes. De La Rosa has such long legs that she looks more vulnerable to leg strikes than most, based on her wider stance. We’ll just point out here that Bueno Silva notably landed 23 leg strikes in her only UFC fight with any real striking.
With a wrestling background, eight of De La Rosa’s 11 career wins have come by submission (5 Armbars & 3 RNCs), including three submission wins to start her UFC career. Her other three career wins were by decision and she’s yet to land a KO in her career. She has six career losses, including four decisions. Her first early loss came against Mackenzie Dern in R1 of a 2016 match via Rear-Naked Choke. Her only other early loss was a 2017 R3 KO at the hands of Cynthia Calvillo.
De La Rosa notably started training in Colorado at Team Elevation for the first time in preparation for her last fight and her striking looked much improved.
Fight Prediction:
De La Rosa will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This fight has sneaky shootout potential with bad striking defenses on both sides (De La Rosa 46% and Bueno Silva 44%). Bueno Silva has generally been an opportunistic submission threat, landing armbars off her back after being taken down by her opponents. Interestingly, she has yet to attempt a single takedown of her own in three UFC fights. It’s no secret that both women are submission threats on the ground, which just knowing that could keep this fight standing up. Bueno Silva is all too happy to hunt for submissions off her back, and De La Rosa has shown a growing confidence in her stand-up game. If De La Rosa can find early striking success, then she really has no reason to try and get this fight to the mat and risk getting submitted. However, if she’s getting beat up on her feet, she’ll likely have no choice but to try and change levels. Both women have shown decent striking, so it will be interesting to see how the fight plays out. It could very well end with another early submission, but a high-paced striking battle seems very possible. We give the edge to Bueno Silva in both of those potential outcomes.
We like Bueno Silva’s R1 Submission line at +900, her KO line at +1500 and her R3 KO line at +5000.
DFS Implications:
Bueno Silva has been so hyper efficient in her two R1 UFC wins that she’s only scored 95 and 91 DraftKings points respectively, and 118 and 109 FanDuel points. In her lone UFC fight to make it out of the first round, Bueno Silva was outlanded 139-88 by Maryna Moroz, who also won the takedown battle 2-0 and amassed four and half minutes of control time, en route to an impressive 111 point DraftKings performance of her own. Moroz notably hadn’t landed above 84 significant strikes in her previous seven fights and has a career average of just 4.09 SSL/min. That result gives reason for optimism in the theory that the winner of this fight can score well outside of an early finish. With that said, the oddsmakers still think there’s a reasonable chance this one ends early, setting the ITD line at +160 (37%). Beuno Silva’s ITD comes in at +260, implying roughly a 25% chance for a finish, although her R1 win line is just +550, implying about an 11% chance.
In her last five fights, De La Rosa has gone 9 for 30 on takedowns, including 5 for 12, 1 for 3, and 1 for 6 in her last three matches. With her increased striking confidence, and now going against a very dangerous submission threat, maybe De La Rosa will tone down her takedown attempts, but if not, Bueno Silva will either A) have ample opportunity to throw up Armbars off her back or B) score well from takedowns defended. This is a tricky matchup for De La Rosa. Historically she’s relied on takedowns and submissions to score well, but now she goes against a fellow submission specialist who is most dangerous off her back. We often see situations like this turn into striking battles and that wouldn’t be surprising here. De La Rosa’s ITD line is set at significantly wider odds than Bueno Silva’s, coming in at +725, implying just an 11% chance she gets a finish. The fact that Bueno Silva absorbed 139 significant strikes in her lone decision loss gives us some hope for a ceiling performance out of De La Rosa in this spot. It makes sense to have exposure to both fighters.
Magomed Ankalaev
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Ankalaev is a vicious yet patient striker coming off back-to-back R1 KO wins over Ion Cutelaba. Ankalaev is 14-1 as a pro, with his only career loss coming in his 2018 UFC debut against Paul Craig, who threw up a hail mary Triangle Choke to steal the fight with literally 1 second left in the third round. Ankalaev had been dominating Craig for the entire fight, outlanding him 59-18 in significant strikes and exerting heavy top pressure with nearly seven minutes of control time. Craig was able to land two takedowns on seven attempts, but Ankalaev landed a pair of reversals, showcasing his strong defensive wrestling. He has a background in Greco-Roman Wrestling and also holds the title of Master of Sports in Combat Sambo, so he’s no slouch on the ground.
Bouncing back from the demoralizing loss, Ankalaev easily knocked out an extremely hittable Marcin Prachnio in R1 of his next fight. In his next matchup, he faced another submission specialist in Klidson Abreu. Ankalaev badly broke Abreu’s nose in the middle of the first round—to the point that the broadcast was joking about him now being able to sniff around corners—but Abreu was able to survive to lose a decision. Ankalaev defended all five of Abreu’s takedown attempts and went on to win a decision.
He then went on to knock out Dalcha Lungiambula in the third round with a head-bobbling straight kick to the chin followed by a stiff right hand just to be sure. Despite that fight lasting ten and half minutes, Lungiambula landed just six significant strikes to Ankalaev’s 44 and went 0 for 2 on takedowns to Ankalaev’s 1 for 3.
Following the third round victory, Ankalaev scored back-to-back R1 KOs against Ion Cutelaba. The reason they ran it back is that the ref stopped the first match too quickly after he thought Cutelaba was out on his feet. However, there was little to be left to interpretation in the rematch, as Ankalaev violently dropped Cutelaba late in the first round and then bounced his head off the canvas a couple times for good measure.
Five of Ankalaev's six UFC fights have ended early, including three R1 KO wins. Looking at his entire pro career, 9 of his 14 wins have come early, all by KO, including seven in the first round. His two finishes outside of the first round were a R3 highlight reel KO against Dalcha Lungiambula and a 2016 R4 KO over Maxim Grishin before either guy joined the UFC roster. Ankalaev’s other five wins have all ended in decisions.
"This is a key matchup between two incredible athletes who are on the rise."
-Dana White on Ankalaev vs. Krylov
Nikita Krylov
14th UFC Fight (8-5)Amazingly, Krylov’s first 17 pro fights all ended in the first round, with him winning 15 of those. His first fight to last longer than four and a half minutes came in his 2013 UFC debut, which he lost by R3 KO. He bounced back with a 2014 25 second R1 KO against Walt Harris, but then was submitted in 89 seconds by OSP. He appeared to get things on track at that point, rattling off five straight wins in the first two rounds, including three in R1. However, following a 2016 R1 submission loss, he parted ways with the organization.
He went 4-0 after leaving the UFC, with four finishes split across the first two rounds. The UFC brought him back in 2018 to face Jan Blachowicz, who submitted Krylov in R2. Krylov then got his revenge on OSP, submitting him the second round of his next fight, before splitting a pair of decisions in his last two matches against Glover Teixeira and Johnny Walker. Incredibly, those were the first two times in 34 pro fights that Krylov’s been to a decision. Somehow he’s still just 28 years old.
For what it’s worth, Krylov has alternated wins and losses over his last 5 fights and is now coming off a win. Of his 27 pro wins, 26 have come early, with 11 KOs and 15 submissions. In his seven career losses, six have come early, with one by KO and five by submission. He’s a black belt in Kyokushin Karate and “Master of Sports of Ukraine in Army hand-to-hand combat and Submission Fighting.”
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Krylov will have a 2” reach advantage.
All of Ankalaev’s career finishes have come by KO and he’s never submitted an opponent. On the other side of things, Krylov has only been knocked out once in 34 pro fights (2013 R3 KO in his UFC debut), but has been more vulnerable to getting submitted, which has happened six times. While both of these fighters are extremely dangerous, this is sort of a weird matchup stylistically. Because of that, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a slower paced chess match with a decent amount of grappling that eventually ends with the judges. If it does end early, it would most likely be from either an Ankalaev KO or a Krylov submission.
The three most likely outcomes here are an Ankalaev KO (-105), a Krylov submission (+1100), or for the fight to end in a decision (+170). We don’t see much value in betting on an Ankalaev KO at -105 and prefer his decision like at +275, which is our favorite bet in this fight.
DFS Implications:
Ankalaev will patiently stalk his prey before uncoiling immense power that typically relieves his foes from consciousness. While that often translates to early knockout victories, it rarely results in any considerable amount of striking volume or takedowns. He averages just 3.58 significant strikes landed/minute and 0.6 takedowns/15 minutes. However, he also only absorbs 1.36 significant strikes/minute and holds an elite 85% takedown defense. So he also makes it tough for opponents to score well against him. The only two times he’s been taken down in the UFC both came in his 2018 UFC debut against submission specialist Paul Craig, who went 2 for 7 on takedowns. Since then, his opponents have combined to go 0 for 7. Considering that Krylov has gone 5 for 12 on takedowns in his last two fights and holds a career 52% takedown accuracy, look for Ankalaev to bolster his FanDuel score with takedowns defended. In his three first round wins in the UFC, Ankalaev has scored 105, 118 and 119 DraftKings points. In his R3 KO win he scored 97 DraftKings points and in his one decision win he scored just 75 points. Had Paul Craig not submitted him with one second remaining in the match, he would have scored 82 DraftKings points in another decision win. It seems clear that to score well on DraftKings Ankalaev will need a R1 or potentially late R2 finish. His R1 win line is set at +230 (22%), while his R2 line is +425 (14%). Keep in mind, an early R2 win very likely wouldn’t score enough DraftKings points to be useful. Based on his odds, you’re looking at roughly a 30% chance he puts up a useful DFS score, which is well below his projected ownership.
Krylov has scored at least 97 DraftKings points in his last seven wins and 105 or more in six of those. At just $6,900 on DraftKings, there’s a good chance a win of any type would be enough for him to be useful in DFS. However, this is a really tough matchup where we expect lower striking volume and not a ton of takedowns, so a lower scoring total for the winner wouldn’t be surprising. The oddsmakers have set Krylov’s moneyline at +280, implying a 25% chance he pulls off the upset and his ITD line at +500, implying roughly a 14% chance.
Ciryl Gane
5th UFC Fight (4-0)A jacked Heavyweight who’s very light on his feet, Gane comes in 7-0 as a pro, with six early finishes. Three of his wins have come by submission and three have been by KO. His first fight to make it to the judges came in his 2019 match against another fleet-footed Heavyweight in Tanner Boser.
In his August 2019 UFC debut, Gane submitted Raphael Pessoa towards the end of R1, in what had been a low volume affair. Pessoa was previously undefeated, but also making his debut in the UFC.
Gane followed up that first round win with his first ever trip to the third round, against questionable talent Don'Tale Mayes. Gane commanded the fight and finished Mayes 14 seconds before the judges were needed. He very nearly finished Mayes at the end of R1, but the ref let it go to the bell when he easily could have stopped it. The late R3 finish filled up the stat sheet and still scored an impressive 120 DraftKings points.
He then fought Tanner Boser to a disappointing decision in his third UFC fight. Gane was unable to take Boser down on his only official attempt. Both fighters had grown accustomed to being the far more mobile Heavyweight in their matches, so it was a new experience for each guy to stare across the Octagon at their Heavyweight doppelganger—at least from a mobility perspective. Gane seemed to begin to figure things out in the second half of the fight, but Boser was still able to survive to see a decision—albeit a one-sided 30-26 unanimous one.
After fighting four times in 2019 (including once prior to joining the UFC) Gane only fought once in 2020 after he watched four straight fights get canceled. The first of those was due to him suffering an injury, but the next three were completely out of his control with three straight opponents withdrawing. Apparently no one wants to fight this monster.
When he finally got back inside the Octagon he knocked out Junior dos Santos in the second round this past December. Now fighting for the second time in just over two months, Gane will face the toughest opponent of his career.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Also coming off a R2 KO of Junior dos Santos, Rozenstruik’s only career loss was a 2020 R1 KO against Ngannou.
Rozenstruik has been taken down four times in his six UFC fights—twice in his 2019 debut and twice by Overeem later in 2019. While he has no ground game whatsoever, he was still able to survive those takedowns and win both of those fights. After surviving being taken down twice in the first round of his debut, Rozenstruik landed a R2 knockout less than a minute into the second round. Four months later he took on Allen Crowder and knocked him out just nine seconds into the fight. And following that abrupt finish, he took just 29 seconds to knock out Andrei Arlovski.
However, after finishing his first three opponents in a combined six and a half minutes, he took four seconds shy of the full 25 minutes to defeat Alistair Overeem in his first time headlining. Seemingly headed for the judges, Rozenstruik was able to land a lip splitting 2-piece combo on Overeem with just seconds to go in the match.
Then, after nearly going five full rounds against Overeem, Rozenstruik got viciously knocked out by Francis Ngannou in just 20 seconds of action. Prior to the loss, Rozenstruik had won all 10 of his career fights, with one decision and nine KOs—including seven in the first round. Half of Rozenstruik’s six UFC fights have lasted under 30 seconds, with him winning two of those. He has shown a very patient, coiled fighting style, that looks like someone trying to fight a mouse trap.
Fight Prediction:
Each fighter is 6’4” but Gane will have a 3” reach advantage.
Both of these fighters have kickboxing backgrounds, but if #7 ranked Gane gets this fight to the ground, he will have a massive advantage over the #3 ranked Rozenstruik, who is a pure kickboxer with no ground game whatsoever. Rozenstruik does hold a respectable 75% takedown defense, but both of his UFC opponents who actually attempted a takedown on him have landed a pair (Overeem 2 for 10, Albini 2 for 6). Gane is also the more mobile fighter and offers a greater diversity of striking. Look for Gane to try and soften Rozenstruik up with heavy kicks from the outside early on and potentially shoot for an early takedown. He won’t want to stand in one place and trade with Rozenstruik so we expect a kinetic pace from the start. Rozenstruik will be dependent on landing that one perfectly placed punch to win this fight, whereas Gane can win it on the ground, standing up, or by outlanding his way to a decision. This will be Gane’s toughest test to date and we should learn a lot about how he stacks up in the Heavyweight division here.
If you really want to make this fight exciting, check out Rozenstruik’s R5 KO line at +4400. Or if you’re looking for something safer/boring check out “Fight Ends in KO” at -160
DFS Implications:
We often see very polarized results with Heavyweight main events. While they’re generally more likely to land a finish, they’re far less likely to put up the volume that secures a solid DFS score into the later rounds. Last week was the perfect example of this. Derrick Lewis was min priced on DraftKings and despite landing a R2 knockout, he still scored just 82.8 DraftKings points and didn’t make it into the optimal lineup. Hey, it’s tough to get there when you only land six punches. While Rozenstruik averages a little more striking volume than Lewis, he has a similar reliance on landing an early finish to score well.
Gane offers high-volume striking and an occasional takedown, going 3 for 5 across his four UFC fights. It’s worth noting that all three of those takedowns came in his second UFC fight and he’s gone 0 for 2 in his other three fights. With that said, Rozenstruik is so helpless on the ground that it would be a little surprising if Gane didn’t look to get this fight to the ground at some point. One concern for Gane’s striking volume is just how dangerous Rozenstruik is on the feet. Gane will need to be extremely careful not to get caught, so a cautious, pace down performance in the stand up game would make sense.
Rozenstruik’s low-volume, no takedown fighting style results in him being entirely dependent on a R1 or late R2 knockout to score well in DFS. In his fight against Overeem that lasted just under 25 minutes, Rozenstruik came out ahead on significant strikes 89-74, which combined with the 5th round knockout was good for just 90 points on DraftKings. He was able to do a little better on FanDuel, where he scored 114 points propped up by eight takedowns defended. And Rozenstruik has a solid career 75% takedown defense. Outside of Overeem going 2 for 10 on takedowns against Rozenstruik, the only other opponent to even attempt one was Junior Albini, who went 2 for 6 back in Rozenstruik’s 2019 UFC debut. So while Rozenstruik overall did a good job of discouraging takedowns, both of his opponents to attempt any did each get him down twice. When determining your Rozenstruik exposure it makes sense to consider his odds of a R1 finish at +900 (7%) combined with his odds of a R2 finish +1000 (7%).
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma