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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Jessica-Rose Clark
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Stepping into the final fight on her contract following a pair of first round armbar submission losses, Clark became the first UFC fighter to close to Julija Stoliarenko, who has lost her other five UFC fights. That fight lasted just 42 seconds before Stoliarenko took Clark down and dislocated her elbow with an armbar. Clark was able to avoid surgery to recover from the injury. Just before that, Clark was the one foolishly instigating the grappling against Stephanie Egger, who handed Clark the first early loss of her career in another armbar. Prior to the pair of quick defeats, Clark had seen the third round in 13 straight fights, with her only official early win over that stretch coming in a 2020 R3 TKO against a terrible Sarah Alpar. She did have another third round TKO back in 2015, but it was ruled a No COntest because she missed weight. Clark tore her ACL in the win, which resulted in a 13 month layoff, but upon returning she followed up the win with a grappling heavy decision victory over Joselyne Edwards. That apparently had Clark so hyped up about her wrestling that she severely overestimated her abilities in her next match against Egger.
Now 11-8 as a pro, Clark has three wins by TKO, two submissions, and six decisions. She’s never been knocked out, with both of her early losses ending in first round armbar. Her other six losses all went the distance. Four of her five early wins occurred in her first five pro fights and she only has one finish in her last 14 fights. She’s just 2-4 in her last six fights. Clark started her pro career at 135 lb, but dropped down to 125 lb when she joined the UFC in 2017. However, she had some struggles to make the weight and after starting 2-1 in the UFC at 125 lb, she moved up to 135 lb in 2019, where she’s since gone 2-3.
Overall, Clark started out as a powerlifter before taking up kickboxing. She’s a decent striker, but hasn’t been any sort of finisher and also doesn’t land a ton of volume, averaging 4.02 SSL/min and 3.59 SSA/min. We’ve seen her put on impressive performances against low-level and one-dimensional fighters, but hasn’t shown the ability to defeat higher level opponents. At 35 years old, she still seems in search of her identity as a fighter, and you never really know what you’re going to get from her. She had been training in California but just started training in Texas with her boyfriend, so she’s had an entirely new camp for this fight. Her wrestling has been somewhat sporadic, as she’s landed 11 takedowns on 21 attempts (52.4% accuracy), but half of those came in a single match when she landed 5 of her 11 attempts against Joselyne Edwards. She’s also been taken down by her opponents on 8 of their 22 attempts (63.6% defense). With this being the final fight on her deal, Clark will be fighting for her job here.
Tainara Lisboa
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Lisboa will be making her UFC debut following three straight finishes. While her 100% finishing rate looks impressive on paper, you have to pay attention to who those wins came against. Her opponents entered with nonexistent records of 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, and 1-4, and not a single one of them ever fought again. The only time she has ever faced an opponent with a winning record was when she took on a 2-1 Lorrany Santos and lost a decision in 2020. Lisboa also has a first round submission loss to Norma Dumont on her record, with both of them making their pro debuts in that 2016 match. Following the loss, Lisboa didn’t fight again for three years after undergoing knee surgery. Lisboa has seven pro fights with seven different organizations, and her wins have come in organizations like Woman's Fight - 1 and Acesso Show - The Dog Tower FC 3. When she tried going to more well known organizations like Jungle Fight and Shooto Brazil, she lost both of her fights.
Now 5-2 as a pro, Lisboa has three wins by TKO and two by submission. While her last finish came in the second round, her three before that all ended in round one, after the first early win of her career came in round three. Lisboa lost the only decision she’s ever been to and the only time she’s been finished was in her 2016 pro debut in a first round submission against Norma Dumont. Following that loss at 135 lb to Dumont, Lisboa spent three years away from fighting before returning in 2019 at 145 lb. Her next four fights were all at 145 lb (3-1), before she had a 139 lb fight on her way back down to 135 lb for her most recent match, which took place 13 months ago. So she’s only had two pro fights at 135 lb (1-1), but that’s where she’ll be making her UFC debut.
Overall, Lisboa has a background in Muay Thai, but has been finding most of her finishes on the mat through either ground and pound or arm-triangle chokes. However, it’s really hard to even evaluate Lisboa’s talent based on just how bad all of her recent opponents have been. She’s never beaten any real professional fighters and the only time she faced a legitimate opponent, she got submitted in the first round by Norma Dumont. Despite only having seven MMA fights on her record, Lisboa is already 32 years old and isn’t exactly a young prospect. There are more questions than answers surrounding her, but her extremely padded record has fraud written all over it.
Fight Prediction:
Lisboa will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. She’s also three years younger than the 35-year-old clark.
This sets up as a high variance fight between two strikers who have both shown a desire to get fights to the mat lately. Lisboa is a bit of a wild card because all of her wins have come against an ultra low-level of competition and she hasn’t competed in 13 months. The combined record of her opponents in her five wins is amazingly 1-5. So she’s on major fraud alert, but she’ll have her chance to prove herself come Saturday. Meanwhile, Clark has faced some decent competition in her career, but has also only found success against lower level opponents. Clark would be wise to use her wrestling here, but she may have PTSD from her last two armbar losses, so we won’t be surprised if she keeps the fight standing. At that point it would become a low-level striking battle that could go either way and we don’t have any confidence in either of these two. With that said, Clark has at least shown the ability to compete at the UFC level and has nearly three times as many pro fights as Lisboa, so give us Clark to win by decision to save her job, but we don’t have much confidence in either of these two.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +450.
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DFS Implications:
Clark has averaged a respectable 93 DraftKings points in her four UFC wins. However, the only time she topped 96 points was when a referee was prepared to let Sarah Alpar die in the Octagon, allowing Clark to rack up a ton of extra damage, well after the fight should have been stopped. That was Clark’s only finish since 2014, and she’s generally just a decision grinder when she’s not getting armbarred. Her combination of grappling and striking general gives her a solid scoring floor, however, she’s now been submitted in the first round in back-to-back fights, making it tougher to trust her floor. With that said, both of those losses came against grapplers and now she’ll be facing an inexperienced striker who’s making her UFC debut. This will be the final fight on Clark’s contract and if she can’t win this fight she doesn't deserve a new deal. The line flipped in Lisboa’s favor after DraftKings already released pricing, leaving Clark drastically overpriced. That should drive her ownership way down and actually makes her a more interesting low-owned tournament play in a high variance spot. The odds imply Clark has a 49% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Lisboa is a wild card as she makes her UFC debut. She has a Muay Thai background, but has been looking to take opponents down and finish them on the mat. While she has found success doing that and has a 100% finishing rate in her five pro wins, she has an extremely padded record and her five wins came against opponents with a combined 1-5 record, with none of those five fighters ever competing again. She might as well be tackling soccer moms in the grocery store and finishing them on the tile, and her record screams fraud. The one time she faced a real opponent was in her 2016 pro debut where she got submitted in the first round by Norma Dumont. And the only time she’s gone up against an opponent with a winning record was when she lost a decision to the 2-1 Lorrany Santos. With all that said, Lisboa’s game plan of getting opponents down and finishing them with ground and pound or arm-triangle chokes will score very well when successfully executed, so she does have a high scoring ceiling, albeit with an uncertain floor. Lisboa is very underpriced on DraftKings at just $7,800 after the line flipped in her favor, which will drive her ownership up and lowers her tournament appeal some. However, if she finds another finish she’ll almost certainly end up in winning lineups at her cheap price tag. So ultimately this is an extremely volatile fight that could go a lot of ways. The odds imply Lisboa has a 51% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Gabe Green
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Ten months removed from a decision loss to Ian Garry, Green has gone the distance in three of his four UFC fights, with the one exception being a R2 TKO win over Yohan Lainesse, who gassed out in the fight. Green lost a super high-volume decision to Daniel Rodriguez in his 2020 short notice UFC debut, but bounced back with a decision win over Phil Rowe, who he nearly finished with leg kicks. He then finished Lainesse before losing to Garry. Green has won 8 of his last 10 fights, since getting knocked out in 36 seconds by Jalin Turner in a 2017 Bellator fight. While Green has yet to be finished in the UFC, he did get dropped in each of his last two fights.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Green has four wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and just one decision victory. He’s been knocked out twice in the first round, but both of those occurred in his first five pro fights, with one of them coming against Jalin Turner. His other two losses both went the distance. Green’s first nine pro fights all ended in the first two rounds, with seven ending in round one. However, his last six fights have all made it to the second round, with four seeing round three, and three going the distance. Three of his four career knockout wins occurred in the second round, while four of his last five submission victories came in round one. He bounced between 155 lb and 170 lb early in his career, but all of his UFC fights have been at 170 lb. He hasn’t been the most active fighter as he’s dealt with numerous injuries in recent years, and after taking all of 2019 off, he fought just once in 2020 and once in 2021, before competing twice in 2022. It’s now been 10 months since he last competed.
Overall, Green has no problem taking part in a brawl and has proven himself to be fairly durable as he’s gone up against four hard hitting opponents so far in the UFC and has survived against all of them. With that said, he’s been knocked out twice before and got dropped in each of his last two fights. We saw him absorb a ridiculous 175 significant strikes in his debut, and 116 in his last match, and he averages 6.20 SSL/min and 6.92 SSA/min. In his four UFC fights, he’s landed three of his six takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on six of their 13 attempts (53.8% defense). He’s been taken down in all four fights, while he landed at least one takedown in each of the two fights where he attempted any.
Bryan Battle
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss, Battle got smothered on the mat for three rounds in a decision loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov. Battle landed just three significant strikes in the 15 minute fight, as he got taken down seven times and controlled for over 14 minutes. Prior to that loss, Battle landed a 44 second first round knockout against Takashi Sato after dropping down from 185 lb to 170 lb for the first time in his career. Battle’s first two UFC wins both came against opponents from The Ultimate Fighter, in Gilbert Urbina, who was filling in for Tresean Gore on short notice, and then Tresean Gore after he recovered from a knee injury. So the only fighter with any UFC experience that Battle has defeated was Sato, who has lost three straight and is just 2-4 in the UFC.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Battle has two wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and two decisions. Four of his six early wins have occurred in round two, with the other two ending in round one. He’s been submitted once and has one decision loss.
Overall, Battle is an uptempo fighter who throws a lot of kicks and knees out of the clinch, but he doesn’t have the most explosive hands. He only averages 4.42 SSL/min and 3.87 SSA/min, but those numbers got dragged down after he spent three rounds on his back in his last fight. Going into that fight, he had been averaging 7.18 SSL/min and 4.53 SSA/min. He’s only landed 2 of his 10 takedown attempts (20% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 11 of their 18 attempts (38.9% defense). He’s generally looking to choke out his opponents in the second round after wearing them down early, but he’s yet to show he can execute that approach against UFC level fighters. Battle will be fighting in front of his home North Carolina crowd, who should be behind him in this match.
Fight Prediction:
Battle will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while also being two years younger than the 30-year-old Green.
Green has faced a series of heavy hitters in his first four UFC fights and survived to tell the tale in all four matches, while Battle has had an easier path to this point. We expect these two to go to war and for durability to play a major factor in determining the victor. Both guys are coming off decision losses where they got dropped in the third round, but Battle was facing a wrestler, while Green was going up against an undefeated striker. Battle has not appeared to take shots especially well, and we still haven’t seen much of him on the feet since he dropped down to 170 lb. Look for Green to test his chin in this fight and there’s a good chance it won’t hold up. With that said, Battle used to fight at 185 lb, while Green has spent time at 155 lb, and Battle will have the size advantage. However, Green still has the heavier hands and Battle’s striking defense looks pretty suspect. While both guys are capable of finishing the other, we like Green to knock Battle out in the second round in a high-volume war.
Our favorite bet here is “Green ITD” at +250.
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DFS Implications:
Green is a high-volume brawler who is typically a guy we’re looking to target in DFS. He averaged 99 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins, scoring at least 92 points in each of those. While three of his four UFC fights went the distance, all 11 of his earlier career fights ended early and he’s capable of finishing fights both on the feet and the mat. His two UFC losses came against tough opponents in Ian Garry and Daniel Rodriguez, while his last loss before joining the organization was against Jalin Turner. He’s consistently come out ahead in easier matchups, and now he’ll face a step down in competition against Bryan Battle. Green will be the smaller fighter in this matchup, but looks to be the more powerful puncher. We expect this to be a high-volume brawl, with a good chance it ends early, so the winner should score well. When you factor in Green’s affordable price tag, he could still end up in winning tournament lineups even in a decision win, although that’s not a certainty as he relies mostly on his striking. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Battle is also a high-volume striker who’s ready to throw down in a brawl, while also being dangerous on the mat. He averaged 104 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins before getting dominated on his back in his last fight. Now he’ll be fighting in front of his home crowd and we expect him to be looking to put on a show. This is the perfect matchup for both guys to land a ton of striking volume and they’re also each capable of mixing in some grappling. Battle’s overall striking numbers don’t tell the whole story because he just spent three rounds on his back landing no strikes. That could result in some projection systems failing to account for his true potential and this could easily be the highest volume fight on the slate. Battle averaged 7.18 SSL/min in his first three UFC fights, but landed just three total strikes in his last match, dragging his average down to 4.42 SSL/min. While this looks like a tougher matchup for Battle to win than any of his previous three UFC victories, if he does win, he should score well. At his cheaper price tag, even a decision victory has a good chance of scoring enough for him to be useful in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Ji Yeon Kim
10th UFC Fight (3-6)This fight had originally been booked back in February, but Bohm withdrew and it was pushed back three months.
Kim is desperate for a win here after losing four straight decisions and five of her last six fights. Her most recent loss came in a split decision against a much larger Joselyne Edwards, who had just competed at 145 lb and missed weight by a pound and a half trying to get down to 135 lb. Meanwhile Kim had been preparing to face Mariya Agapova here at 125 lb, but Agapova dropped out and the fight was moved up to 135 lb on just two weeks’ notice. Looking back one fight further, Kim lost a close/questionable decision to Priscila Cachoeira, despite finishing ahead 170-102 in significant strikes. Just before that, Kim lost another close high-volume decision against Molly McCann, after starting her current skid against the current Flyweight champion in Alexa Grasso. Eight of Kim’s nine UFC fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2019 R2 KO win over a suspect Nadia Kassem, who went 1-2 in the UFC and never fought again following the loss to Kim. That’s Kim’s only win since 2018, with her other two UFC victories both ending in split decisions in her first three UFC appearances. One of those was against Justine Kish on the second most recent card to take place in North Carolina.
Now 9-6-2 as a pro, Kim has two wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decisions. She’s never been finished, with all six of her career losses ending in decisions. The first two fights of her pro career both ended in two-round draws and three of her eight UFC decisions have been split (2-1). Kim started her career at 135 lb, but after losing her UFC debut at the weight class she moved down to 125 lb, where she stayed until her last fight. After foolishly agreeing to move up a weight class to accommodate her larger short notice opponent, she’ll now be moving back down to 125 lb.
Overall, Kim is a high-volume, one-dimensional striker, who’s never landed a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts. On the other side of things, her opponents have taken her down 8 times on 14 attempts (42.9% defense), and she’s been taken down at least once in six straight fights. She averages 5.79 SSL/min and 5.77 SSA/min, and her last three opponents all landed 101 or more significant strikes against her, while she landed 122 or more in two of those three matches. She has a massive 72” reach, which helps her to pick her opponents apart, but doesn’t offer a ton in terms of power. It seems like Kim is fighting for her job everytime we see her, but despite losing four straight the UFC continues to give her opportunities.
Mandy Bohm
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Still in search of her first UFC win, Bohm has yet to even win a single round on any judge’s scorecard in two UFC appearances. The German-born Bohm got mollywhopped in her 2021 UFC debut by the previously struggling Ariane Lipski, which was amazingly the first loss of Bohm’s career. That seriously makes you wonder about the level of competition she had been facing and only three of her seven career wins have come against opponents with winning records. Following the dreadful performance in her UFC debut, Bohm lost a unanimous 30-27 decision to a terrible Victoria Leonardo, who had been finished in each of her previous two UFC fights.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Bohm has two wins by TKO, two submissions, and three decision victories. She’s never technically been finished, with both of her official losses going the distance. However, the No Contest in her 2014 pro debut was originally a submission loss. Her last four and six of her last seven fights have seen the third round, with five of those going the distance. Bohm competed at 135 lb a couple of times earlier in her career, but she’s exclusively fought at 125 lb since 2018.
Overall, Bohm is a German kickboxer who has poor defensive grappling and looks very hittable. She’s had a wretched start to her UFC career. She got knocked down twice in her UFC debut and controlled for periods of time on the mat while also getting more than doubled up in terms of striking, and then got taken down twice in her last fight, while also spending extended periods of time getting controlled on the fence. Prior to joining the UFC, Bohm had shown the ability to land takedowns and do damage from top position, but we’ve yet to see those abilities translate to the UFC. She’s looked really bad off her back, has been prone to getting controlled for extended periods of time, and we’ve seen her slow down late in fights. Bohm is already 33 years old, so she’s not some young prospect who should be making major improvements between every fight and she likely is what she is at this point in her career.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” and 33 years old, but Kim will have a 1” reach advantage.
The UFC is throwing Kim a bone here after she agreed to fight Joselyne Edwards up a weight class in her last match to help keep a PPV card intact. While Kim has habitually been involved in close decisions, Bohm has lost every round on every scorecard in both of her UFC matches, despite both of her opponents coming in on two fight losing streaks. While Bohm has never technically been finished, she got dropped twice in her UFC debut and submitted in her pro debut that was later overturned to a No Contest. While Kim doesn’t have a ton of power and hasn’t submitted anybody since 2016, it’s not impossible that she finishes Bohm here. With that said, a decision is much more likely. One concern with Kim is that she’s been taken down in six straight fights and continues to lose close decisions. So if Bohm can land a takedown and win a round on the mat, things could get dicey here. However, Kim is the superior fighter and should be able to outland her way to victory, most likely in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Kim DEC” at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Kim comes in desperate for a win here after losing her last four and five of her last six matches. She’s never landed a takedown in nine UFC fights, and is entirely reliant on either landing a rare finish or putting up an insane striking total to score well in a decision win. She’s put up big striking totals in the past, averaging 123 significant strikes landed in her last three fights, but the only time she’s ever eclipsed 68 DraftKings points was in her lone early win in the UFC, which ended in a 2019 R2 TKO and scored 113 DraftKings points. She would have scored 98 points in her second most recent fight had the decision gone her way, but at her expensive price tag that’s still not quite enough to be useful. That leaves her reliant on either finding a finish, setting a new career high in significant strikes landed, or suddenly learning how to grapple. All three of those are unlikely, but this does look like a good matchup for Kim as she takes on a terrible opponent, so you never know. Kim will also be low owned, which adds to her tournament appeal, but the most likely outcome is a lower scoring decision win—at least on DraftKings. She’s a more interesting play on FanDuel where she’s cheaper priced and the rules or better suited for her striking-heavy approach. The odds imply she has a 65% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Bohm has looked terrible in both of her UFC fights, scoring just 29 and 17 DraftKings points in a pair of decision losses, but this actually isn’t a terrible matchup for her. While she spent extended periods of time being controlled in those matchups and got dropped twice in her UFC debut, Kim is a one-dimensional striker who’s never landed a takedown in the UFC and rarely spends much time controlling anybody. However, both of Bohm’s losses came against struggling opponents, and it’s hard to have any confidence in her moving forward. She’s already 33 years old, so it’s not as if she’s some young prospect who we’re expecting to see improvements from. Bohm will occasionally look for takedowns, so she theoretically has the ability to score well through a combination of striking and grappling, but she’s yet to actually land a takedown in the UFC. Her background is in kickboxing and we’re expecting to see a high-volume striking battle here, which does create the potential for her to score decently if she can somehow pull off the upset. Working in her favor, Kim has lost four straight decisions and the judges seem to hate her. However, Bohm is as gross as it gets and we’d be surprised if she ever wins a UFC fight. The odds imply she has a 35% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Cody Stamann
13th UFC Fight (7-4-1)Stamann is coming off a decision win over UFC newcomer Luan Lacerda in front of Lacerda’s home Brazil crowd. Stamann relied on his striking in that match against the dangerous grappler in Lacerda, finishing ahead 103-80 in significant strikes while failing to land a takedown. Just before that recent victory, Stamann landed his lone early win in the UFC against the corpse of Eddie Wineland in a 59 second R1 KO. Leading up to his recent two wins, Stamann dropped three straight, with a pair of decision losses to Jimmie Rivera and Merab Dvalishvili, followed by a 47 second R1 submission loss to Said Nurmagomedov. While two of his last three fights ended in 59 seconds or less, eight of Stamann’s first nine UFC fights went the distance (5-2-1), with the one exception being a 2018 R2 submission loss to Aljamain Sterling. Three of those eight decisions were split on the scorecards (2-0-1), although his last four decisions have all been unanimous.
Now 21-5-1 as a pro, Stamann has seven wins by KO/TKO, two by submission, and 12 decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted twice and has three decision losses. He also fought Song Yadong to a draw, although Stamann arguably won that fight. Eight of Stamann’s nine early wins came prior to joining the UFC and the other was against a corpse. Stamann has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb and it’s no easy weight cut for him to get down to 135 lb. He’s gone 2-1 at 145 lb in the UFC and has actually looked better there, while he’s just 5-3-1 at 135 lb.
Overall, Stamann is a former Division II college wrestler and former 2008 Michigan Golden Gloves winner, who’s only struggled against top level guys. He’s just a BJJ blue belt and hasn’t submitted anybody since 2016, but he is a solid wrestler. He’s stocky with short arms and outside of his TKO win over the corpse of Eddie Wineland hasn’t looked like any sort of knockout threat. In his 12 UFC fights, he’s landed 24 of his 58 takedown attempts (41.4% accuracy), while his opponents have taken him down on 14 of their 58 attempts (75.9% defense). He also averages 4.47 SSL/min and 3.59 SSA/min.
Douglas Silva de Andrade
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Now 37 years old, Silva de Andrade is 10 months removed from a low-volume decision loss to Said Nurmagomedov, after finishing each of his previous two opponents in the first two rounds. He nearly got finished himself in his last win, but was able to survive after getting knocked down in the first round and then amazingly landed three knockdowns of his own in round two before submitting Sergey Morozov midway through the round. Just before that, Silva de Andrade landed a first round knockout against a terrible Gaetano Pirrello, who’s been finished in the first two rounds in both of his UFC fights. That’s the only one of Silva de Andrade’s 11 UFC fights to end in the first round, with seven of his UFC matches seeing the third round and six going the distance. While Silva de Andrade is only 6-5 in the UFC, his losses have all come against really tough opponents in Said Nurmagomedov, Lerone Murphy, Petr Yan, Marlon Vera, Rob Font, and Zubaira Tukhugov. He’s never lost two fights in a row in his career, which will be tested here. Prior to joining the UFC, Silva de Andrade had a perfect 22-0 pro record with 19 early wins.
Now 28-5 as a pro, Silva de Andrade has 20 wins by KO/TKO, two by submission, and six decision victories. He has one TKO loss, which came in a 2018 post round two corner stoppage against Petr Yan, but he’s never truly been knocked out. His only other early loss came in a 2017 R2 guillotine submission loss to Rob Font. His remaining three defeats all went the distance. Silva de Andrade started his career at 145 lb and remained there for his debut. However, after suffering his first pro loss in a decision against Zubaira Tukhugov in his debut, Silva de Andrade moved down to 135 lb. He went 3-2 in his next five fights at 135 lb, but moved back up to 145 lb in 2019 to split a pair of decisions. He then returned to 135 lb, where he’s stayed since. So all three of his UFC fights at 145 lb went the distance (1-2), while five of his eight fights at 135 lb ended early (3-2). He’s won two of the three decisions he’s been to at 135 lb in the UFC and is overall 3-3 with the judges in the organization.
Overall, Silva de Andrade is a compact but dangerous fighter who looks like a bag of rocks and hits like one too, although he’s still only knocked out one opponent since 2016. He relies primarily on his striking but will occasionally land a takedown. In his 11 UFC fights, Silva de Andrade has landed 6 of his 12 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 13 of their 43 attempts (69.8% defense). He’s just 2-5 in UFC fights where he’s been taken down even once, but 4-0 when he has not surrendered a takedown. He’s typically not a guy that will put up huge striking totals, averaging just 3.61 SSL/min in his career, and he landed 39 or fewer significant strikes in 8 of his 11 UFC fights. He’s also never absorbed more than 76 significant strikes in a fight, so we generally see him involved in lower volume affairs. He’s accustomed to facing a high level of competition, but at 37 years old you do have to start wondering when he’ll begin to slow down.
Fight Prediction:
Silva de Andrade will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while Stamann is four years younger than the 37-year-old Silva de Andrade.
Stamann is the superior wrestler and the more active striker in this matchup, but Silva de Andrade has the power advantage. However, Silva de Andrade has only landed one knockout since 2016 and Stamann has never been knocked out. Silva de Andrade has also been very durable, with only one KO/TKO loss in 33 pro fights. While they’ve both been submitted in the past, neither guy is much of a submission threat, so overall it’s unlikely that this fight ends early. We expect Stamann to look to wrestle more than he did in his last match, although he’s only landed two total takedowns in his last five fights and has the ability to compete in a pure striking battle. If that’s the path he chooses, he should be able to outland his way to victory, but he will put himself at risk of eating the more powerful shots coming back his way. Regardless of whether he looks to get it done on the feet or the mat, we like Stamann to win a decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Stamann DEC” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Stamann has been a decision grinder throughout his UFC career, with his only finish coming against a Weekend at Bernie’s stunt double. His other six UFC wins all went the distance, where he averaged 82 DraftKings points and failed to top 84 points in his last five. The only time he scored well in a decision victory was in his 2017 UFC debut where he landed a career best eight takedowns against a terrible opponent who went 0-4 in the UFC. Stamann does have the wrestling ability to score well on DraftKings even without a finish, but has only landed two total takedowns in his last five fights, so it’s hard to have much confidence in him putting up the huge takedown total he needs to really score well. The most likely outcome here is that Stamann grinds out another average scoring decision win, but he at least has some potential upside on DraftKings even in a decision. He was amazingly just 6% owned the last time he fought, and once against projects to be low owned, which does add to his tournament appeal. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Silva de Andrade put up big scores in his last two wins but has otherwise been very pedestrian throughout his UFC career. While he averaged 113 DraftKings points in those last two victories, he only averaged 74 points in his first four UFC wins. He failed to top 75 DraftKings points in any of his three UFC decision wins, and even at his cheaper price tag he appears reliant on landing a finish to score well, as he’s a low-volume striker who rarely lands many takedowns. Working against him, Stamann has never been knocked out and Silva de Andrade isn’t much of a submission threat, although does have two on his record. So Silva de Andrade appears reliant on handing Stamann the first knockout loss of his career to return a useful score, and the only opponent Silva de Andrade has knocked out since 2016 was a terrible Gaetano Pirrello, who went 0-2 in the UFC with both losses coming early. That makes it tough to get excited about playing Silva de Andrade, despite his appealing price tag. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Karl Williams
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)This matchup had originally been scheduled on April 8th, but a minute after the card started they announced Sherman had dropped out. At the time, Williams had been stepping in on short notice for his training partner, Chris Barnett, but now had another month to prepare.
Williams dominated his debut on the mat as he landed eight takedowns on 13 attempts, while also tacking on a knockdown. Prior to that, he won another wrestling-heavy decision, that time on DWCS, where Williams impressively moved up to Heavyweight on less than a week’s notice. In that fight, he dominated a former Penn St. D-1 All-American Heavyweight wrestler on the mat for three rounds, landing all three of his takedown attempts with almost 11 minutes of control time. Williams was 30 lb lighter than his opponent in that match as he checked in at 233 lb. After the fight, they asked Williams if he wanted to stay at Heavyweight or drop back down, and he said he could do either but would rather move back down. Despite what he said then, he made his debut at Heavyweight and it appears he’ll stay there for the foreseeable future.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Williams has three wins by KO/TKO and five decision victories. His only career loss came in a 2021 R1 submission in his fourth pro fight. All three of his KO/TKO wins also occurred in round one, with two of those occurring in his first three pro matches. Four of his last five fights have ended in decision wins. Williams made his pro debut at Heavyweight before dropping down to Light Heavyweight for his second fight. He remained at Light Heavyweight until his short notice DWCS appearance. He did miss weight trying to make Light Heavyweight in June 2022, so perhaps it wasn’t the easiest cut to make.
Overall, Williams is still pretty new to MMA, and only turned pro in February 2021. He fought four times in 2021 and four more in 2022, so he’s no stranger to staying active. He largely relies on his dominant wrestling to win fights, but he does have some power in his strikes and throws a dangerous lead left hook. However, it’s rare to see him put up big striking totals. He has the ability to wrestle for three hard rounds, which is rare at Heavyweight, and he puts a pace on his opponents.
Chase Sherman
15th UFC Fight (4-10)Sherman has now dropped out of two cards in the last year AFTER the cards have started. Both times were in short notice matchups against wrestlers and it’s beginning to look a little suspicious. Sherman also had Josh Parisian drop out the day of the fight last November, so maybe all of his fights are just cursed. After Parisian dropped out, Sherman ended up losing a decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta instead two weeks later. Looking back one fight further he got matched up with Jared Vanderaa on less than two weeks’ notice and landed a third round knockout, which is Sherman’s only win in his last six fights. In his four losses leading up to that victory, Sherman was submitted in the first round of his previous two matches, after losing a pair of decisions just before that. Sherman was actually cut for the second time by the UFC following a submission loss to Jake Collier in early 2022, but they brought him back on when they needed a short notice sacrifice for Alexander Romanov, who submitted Sherman in just 131 seconds. In his first stint with the UFC, Sherman went 2-5 from 2016 to 2018, before being cut in September 2018 following his third straight loss. He then landed three straight first round knockouts outside of the UFC and was brought back in 2020. He defeated an undersized Ike Villanueva in his return, but was then popped for PEDs and suspended for nine months. After returning from suspension, he lost three straight fights, with two decisions and a submission loss, before being briefly cut again after the loss to Collier, going 1-3 in his second stint with the UFC. He’s now 1-2 in his third tour as the UFC’s whipping boy, and it’s only a matter of time before they cut him and re-sign him once again.
Now 16-11 as a pro, Sherman has 15 wins by KO and one by decision (2017). He’s been knocked out four times, submitted twice, and has five decision losses. Sixteen of his 27 fights have ended in the first round (12-4), three ended in round two (2-1), two ended in round three (1-1), and six have gone the distance (1-5). While Sherman was able to find some success outside of the UFC in 2018 and 2019, he’s gone just 2-8 in his last 10 UFC fights.
Overall, Sherman is a low-level Heavyweight and a one-dimensional striker. The only success he’s found in his career is knocking out super low-level opponents, and 13 of his 15 career KO wins have come outside of the UFC. He’s only finished 3 of his 14 UFC opponents: Jared Vanderaa, who went 1-6 in the UFC, Isaac Villanueva, who’s a Light Heavyweight that went 1-5 in the UFC, and Rashad Coulter, who went 1-3 in the UFC. Sherman averages 6.30 SSL/min and 6.85 SSA/min, as he’s generally involved in high-volume brawls. Up until his last fight, Sherman had never even attempted a takedown in the UFC, let alone land one, but he landed one of his two attempts in that recent loss, so perhaps he’s working on his wrestling. His opponents have taken him down 7 times on 21 attempts (66.7% defense) and the last five opponents who tried to take him down all landed at least one of their attempts. He’s looked terrible on the mat and is 0-5 in UFC fights when he’s been taken down. He was quickly finished on the ground in three of the last four matches where he got taken down.
Fight Prediction:
Sherman will have a 1” height advantage but Williams will have a 1” reach advantage.
Sherman has really struggled when it comes to grappling, and has never won a fight after getting taken down (0-5). He had been preparing to face a one-dimensional striker and then a week out that was changed to a dominant wrestler, with basically no time for Sherman to make any training adjustments. That’s about as tough of a change as you could ask for and we don’t see Sherman handling it well. Obviously it’s not an ideal situation for Williams either, but at Heavyweight he doesn’t have to worry about cutting a bunch of weight like your typical short notice replacement. We’ve also already seen Williams recently step into a fight on just a weeks’ notice and easily grind out a decision win, so we’re confident he can do it again in basically a dream matchup. The bigger question is whether or not he’ll be able to find a finish. While a knockout is certainly possible, his style of fighting is more conducive to grinding out grappling-heavy decision wins and with less time to condition himself for a fight, he’s probably even less likely to find a late finish. So give us Williams by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Williams DEC” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Williams is a relentless wrestler who has the ability to put up outlandish takedown numbers in the right matchup. He notched eight takedowns in his recent UFC debut and has put up 20+ takedowns in past regional fights. In his recent decision win in his debut, he put up an insane 130 DraftKings points and still 103 points on FanDuel. He was our favorite play on that slate as we expected him to fly under the radar following a lackluster win on DWCS and he paid off in spades as he was just 21% owned on DraftKings. However, after breaking that slate he’ll be more popular here, lowering his tournament appeal to some extent. With that said, this is still a great matchup for him to find a ton of wrestling success and put up another big score. The odds imply he has a 77% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Sherman was sitting as a -225 favorite against Chris Barnett when DraftKings curiously released pricing earlier than normal, but then saw a drastic opponent change that swung him to a +310 underdog. However, his $8,800 DraftKings price tag was already locked in so instead of being priced at $6,700 where he would be if pricing were released with the current matchup, he’s $2,100 overpriced. That will drastically reduce his ownership as only psychopaths, family members, and profitable DFS players will be looking to play him. Obviously that creates a ton of leverage if he’s somehow able to pull off the upset, but stylistically this matchup couldn’t be any worse for him. Sherman is 0-5 in UFC fights where he’s conceded even a single takedown and he offers nothing in terms of grappling. His only hope will be to either land an early hail mary KO or that Williams gasses out after taking this fight on short notice and Sherman can finish him later in the fight. Both of those are remotely possible, but neither is likely. It makes sense to have some level of exposure to Shewrman based on his low ownership, but this is a nightmare matchup for him and we fully expect him to get dominated on the mat. He’s only won a single decision in his career, which scored just 75 DraftKings points. That means he’ll need to hand Williams the first early loss of his career, and at Sherman’s high price tag there are still ways he lands a knockout and gets priced out of winning lineups, especially if he gets controlled for a period of time leading up to the finish. The odds imply Sherman has a 23% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Court McGee
21st UFC Fight (10-10)Eleven months removed from just the second early loss of his career and first since 2016, the 38-year-old McGee got knocked out in the first round by a dangerous Jeremiah Wells. Prior to that loss, he had fought to nine straight decisions (4-5), since getting knocked out in the first round by Santiago Ponzinibbio in 2016. And prior to that early loss, McGee had fought to seven straight decisions (4-3), after submitting his first two UFC opponents in the later rounds, which is the last time McGee finished anybody. Prior to his recent loss, McGee won a pair of decisions against one-dimensional grappling gassers in Ramiz Brahimaj and Claudio Silva. Leading up to those two wins, McGee had lost three straight and is just 3-6 in his last nine fights.
Now 21-11 as a pro, McGee has five wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and 11 decision victories. However, all 10 of his finishes came early in his career and he hasn’t gotten anyone out of there since 2010. He’s been knocked out twice, both times in the first round, and has nine decision losses. Nine of his last 10 and 16 of his last 18 fights have gone the distance. McGee started his career off at 185 lb, but dropped down to 170 lb in his sixth UFC fight following a pair of decision losses in 2012.
Overall, McGee is the definition of a gritty decision grinder. He had been extremely durable before getting violently knocked out in his last fight, has great cardio, and just wears on opponents as fights go on. He looked rejuvenated in his last couple of wins, but it’s hard to tell if that’s just because he faced two opponents who were very prone to gassing or if he’s actually made real improvements. It will be interesting to see how he looks following his recent KO loss. In his last 10 fights, he landed 15 of his 65 takedown attempts (23.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 8 of their 27 attempts (70.4% defense). He won the last three fights where he landed a takedown and lost the last five where he didn’t.
Matt Brown
30th UFC Fight (16-13)We could have sworn Brown retired, but apparently he wants to die of old age inside of the Octagon instead. He’s coming off a split-decision loss in front of his home Ohio crowd against Bryan Barberena and has now lost three of his last four fights and is just 3-6 in his last nine fights. His last nine wins have all come early and he hasn’t won a decision since 2012, although he’s only required the judges four times since then, losing all four decisions. His last three wins all came by knockout in the first two rounds, while his last two losses both went the distance.
Now 23-18 as a pro, Brown has 15 wins by KO, six submissions, and two just decision victories. He’s also been knocked out three times, submitted 10 more, and has six decision losses. His last three fights to end early all finished in second round KOs (2-1). Thirteen of his last 17 fights have ended early, with two ending in submissions (1-1) and 11 in knockouts (8-3). Prior to 2016, Brown had never been knocked out as a pro, but since then he’s been knocked out three times in his last eight fights. He’s gone 3-6 in his last nine fights, with his only wins over that stretch coming against a highly suspect Dhiego Lima and fellow aging fighters Diego Sanchez and Ben Saunders. Looking back even further, Brown is just 4-8 in his last 12 fights and has really been struggling all the way back to 2014.
Overall, Brown is an old school brawler, who at this point is just old. He comes into every fight looking for a finish and generally struggles on the scorecards. He only averages 3.77 SSL/min and 2.94 SSA/min, but will mix in sporadic takedowns. In his last 10 fights, he’s landed 9 of his 20 takedown attempts (45% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 5 of their 26 attempts (80% defense). The only two fighters to get him down over that stretch were Carlos Condit and Demian Maia and his takedown defense has largely held up well.
Fight Prediction:
Brown will have a 1” height advantage, while McGee is four years younger than the 42-year-old Brown.
These two aging veterans have 49 combined UFC fights between them and are a combined 80 years old. While they share a wealth of experience, their styles are drastically different. McGee looks to grind out decisions and wear opponents out along the fence, while Brown looks to finish everyone they put in front of him. It’s hard to know where McGee’s chin is at right now after getting violently knocked out in his last fight, but that creates the potential for Brown to knock him out again here. However, if that doesn't happen, and it most likely won’t, then look for McGee to grind out a decision win, which is our official prediction.
Our favorite bet here is “McGee DEC or Brown KO” at -200.
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DFS Implications:
McGee hasn’t finished an opponent since 2010 and relies on grinding out decisions along the fence. That makes him a DraftKings specific play who will need to absolutely dominate this fight to return value at his expensive price tag. His last eight wins all went the distance, with him averaging 91 DraftKings points in those fights. While he impressively scored 111 points in his last decision win, that required him landing a career best five takedowns, and Matt Brown’s takedown defense has actually looked pretty solid lately as he’s only been taken down five total times in his last 10 fights. McGee scored anywhere from 73 to 99 points in his previous five decisions, which is probably a more realistic range of where we can expect him to score in a win here, although it’s not impossible we see another ceiling performance from him. McGee’s expensive price tag and inability to finish fights early should keep his ownership down and he was only 19% and 15% owned in his last two matches. That adds to his tournament appeal, but he likely still doesn't score quite enough to crack the optimal DraftKings lineup. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a12Z% chance it comes in round one.
Brown relies on landing finishes to win fights and hasn’t won a decision since 2012. He’s now 42 years old and his only finishes in his last nine fights came against fellow senior citizens. However, he will get another one of those guys here. While McGee has historically been very durable, with only two early losses in 32 pro fights, he did get violently knocked out in the first round of his last fight. Who knows how the 38-year-old will respond to that, and Brown at least has a puncher’s chance of knocking him out as well. With that said, Brown is nowhere as explosive as Jeremiah Wells and the more likely outcome is that McGee will grind Brown out against the cage for three rounds. Brown was amazingly 34% owned on DraftKings the last time we saw him, although just 13% owned before that, so the field has been all over the place with him. Ultimately he’s unlikely to win a decision and looks like a KO or bust play in a volatile/dusty matchup. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Alex Morono
18th UFC Fight (11-5, NC)Coming off his first loss in his last five fights, Morono got knocked out in the third round of a fight he had been winning against Santiago Ponzinibbio. To Morono’s credit, he took that fight on just five days’ notice and won both of the first two rounds. Prior to that loss, Morono won three straight decisions after knocking out Donald Cerrone in the first round of a 2021 match. Five of Morono’s last seven fights have gone the distance and his last 12 fights have all ended in either knockouts (2-2) or decisions (6-2). Eight of his 11 UFC wins have gone the distance, with his other three victories ending in the first round. He landed another first round finish just before making his 2016 UFC debut and the last time he landed a finish beyond the first round was in 2015. His last two early wins both ended in knockouts, while his two before that both came by guillotine.
Now 22-8 as a pro, Morono has six wins by KO, six more by submission, nine decisions, and one DQ victory when his opponent bit him. Morono has never been submitted, but he’s officially been knocked out three times. In reality, he’s been knocked out four times, but one of those was overturned to a No Contest when Niko Price later tested positive for THC. He also has five decision losses. Three of Morono’s six submission wins were R1 armbars very early in his career, while his last two both came via guillotine, but he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and is definitely more focused on looking for knockouts at this stage in his career. He’s confirmed that himself saying, “Knockouts are gold, submissions are silver and decisions are bronze.” So while he’s a 2nd degree BJJ black belt, he’s also a black belt in Taekwondo and clearly prioritizes finishing fights on the feet. Morono has returned very polarized results throughout his career as 11 of his 12 career finishes have come in the first round as have two of his three official KO losses.
Overall, Morono is a well rounded fighter but chooses to rely mostly on his striking to win fights. He’s only landed four takedowns on 20 attempts (20%) in his 17 UFC fights, with three of those takedowns coming against Rhys McKee. He’s put up decent striking totals at times, averaging 5.22 SSL/min and 4.09 SSA/min, but we’ve also seen him involved in much lower volume affairs, and he only landed 38 significant strikes in his last fight. Morono has talked about how he’s looking for finishes when they present themselves, but won’t go crazy trying to get opponents out of there. That lines up with the tape, and we’ve seen him hurt opponents at multiple points and not pounce on the opportunity to finish those fights. That has resulted in him only finding one finish in the last four years, which came against a washed up Donald Cerrone. However, to Morono’s credit he’s won six of the last seven decisions he’s been to.
Tim Means
27th UFC Fight (14-11, NC)Now 39 years old and coming off back-to-back losses, Means recently lost a split decision to Max Griffin after getting submitted by Kevin Holland in the second round just before that. Griffin dropped Means in the first round but slowed down some after that and after the fight said he thought he broke his hand in that first round. Holland also had Mean badly hurt, but ultimately submitted him instead of knocking him out. It’s been nearly two years since Means won a fight, but he did get his hand raised in three straight decisions leading up to the loss to Holland. The last three decisions Means has lost have been split, while four of his five early losses in the UFC came by submission.
Now 32-14-1 as a pro, Means has 19 wins by KO, five by submission, and eight decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted six times, and has six decision losses. Means’ last three submission losses all ended in round two, after the first three of his career all came in round one. The only person to knock Means out since 2004 was Niko Price, who did so in the first round of a 2019 match. Means hasn’t finished anybody since landing a 2019 R1 guillotine against Thiago Alves and the last time he knocked anybody out was in 2018.
Overall, Means is a longtime UFC veteran nearing the end of his career. He tends to wear on his opponents through a combination of striking, wrestling, and cage work, but won’t blow you away anywhere. He averages 4.91 SSL/min and 3.58 SSA/min. In his last five fights, he’s landed 8 of his 21 takedown attempts (38.1% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 4 of their 17 attempts (76.5% defense). While Means has only been knocked out once in the last 19 years, he’s been hurt pretty badly in each of his last two fights and it’s possible his chin retires before he does. He’s also been very prone to getting submitted and tends to leave his neck out shooting for desperation takedowns once he’s hurt, with three of his last five submission losses coming by guillotine choke and another by Brabo choke.
Fight Prediction:
Means will have a 3” height and reach advantage, while Morono is seven years younger than the 39-year-old Means.
Both of these two are longtime UFC veterans who have gone the distance in the majority of their recent fights, with four of Means’ last five fights ending with the judges and five of Morono’s last seven. Morono has been somewhat prone to getting knocked out but has never been submitted, while Means gets submitted frequently, but has only been knocked out once since 2004. Morono is generally looking to knock opponents out opposed to submitting them, but he is a BJJ black belt. The last time we saw him submit anybody was in a 2018 first round guillotine, with his second most recent submission win coming in a 2015 first round guillotine just before joining the UFC. Means has been very prone to getting guillotined as he shoots for desperation takedowns after being hurt on the feet, so even if Morono doesn’t seek a submission out, one could fall into his lap. However, Morono has never finished anybody beyond the first round in the UFC and if this fight lasts longer than five minutes it will likely end in a close decision. On paper, this fight looks like it should go the distance, but we wonder about Means’ durability at this stage in his career and we’ll say Morono finishes him in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “Morono R1” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Morono has similarly been a R1 KO or bust DFS play for almost his entire UFC career, with the one exception being a high-volume brawl against Rhys McKee where Morono still scored a massive 126 DraftKings points in a decision win on the back of 176 significant strikes landed, 208 total strikes, and three takedowns. Morono’s other five most recent decision wins have been good for just 76, 78, 69, 74, and 71 points and he’s been consistently mediocre with the judges outside of that one scoring anomaly. He just got knocked out in the third round of a fight he was winning, but really struggled with his striking accuracy in that match, as he only connected on 38 of his 131 strikes, although did land a knockdown in the first round. The last time Morono finished anybody was in 2021 when he knocked out the corpse of Donald Cerrone, with this second most recent finish coming all the way back in 2019. And while Means has been prone to getting submitted, he’s only been knocked out once in the last 19 years, while Morono hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and prefers to look for knockouts despite being a BJJ black belt. However, we won’t be at all surprised if Morono hurts Means on the feet, forces a sloppy shot, and then wraps up his neck and forces a tap via guillotine. It’s also possible that Means’ chin is deteriorating, and he’s been hurt pretty badly in each of his last two fights. So Morono has multiple ways he can finish this fight, just keep in mind he hasn’t finished an opponent beyond the first round since 2015. The field is never very excited about playing Morono and in his last three fights he was only 18%, 13%, and 17% owned on DraftKings. That’s the main reason you should consider playing him in tournaments, just keep in mind he’ll likely need a first round finish to be useful. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Means has averaged 92 DraftKings points in his 14 UFC wins and has shown the ability to score decently even in decisions through a combination of striking and wrestling, with three of his last five decisions scoring 90 or more points. However, we’ve also seen him score just 58 points in two of his seven decision wins, so he’s shown a wide range of outcomes. He hasn't finished anybody since 2019 and hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2018. So while Morono has been somewhat chinny, Means is an unlikely candidate to capitalize on that. That likely leaves Means reliant on filling up the stat sheet in a decision win to serve as a value play. He hasn’t looked good in either of his last two fights and now 39 years old, he may not have much left in the tank. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Carlos Ulberg
5th UFC Fight (3-1)After punching himself out and getting finished by Kennedy Nzechukwu in the second round of his 2021 UFC debut, Ulberg has bounced back with three straight wins, with his last two ending in first round knockouts. Following the failed energy expenditure in his debut, Ulberg came in super conservatively to his next fight and outlanded his way ro a low-volume decision victory in a clear overcorrection. However, after proving to himself he could go three rounds without dying of exhaustion, he knocked out Tafon Nchukwi in just 75 seconds, before handing Nicolae Negumereanu the first early loss of his career in a violent R1 KO. Ulberg did a good job of landing several heavy leg kicks before putting Negumereanu away with punches.
Still just 7-1 as a pro, Ulberg has five wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. His only loss came in a R2 KO in his UFC debut when Ulberg gassed out after taking a huge early lead. His last four knockout wins have all come in the first round, after he landed a second round TKO in his pro debut.
Overall, Ulberg has a kickboxing background and is a member of the City Kickboxing team. He made his way into the UFC with a R1 KO win on DWCS in 2020 just 122 seconds into the match. While Ulberg is still a very raw talent in terms of overall mixed martial arts, his striking ability and power are impressive. While he doesn’t add much in the grappling department, he did land two takedowns in his lone UFC decision win, showing at least some growth in that area. Nevertheless, he’s still primarily a one-dimensional kickboxer who earns his keep on the feet. He’s only had to defend a single takedown attempt so far in the UFC, which he did so successfully, so it’s hard to gauge his defensive wrestling, and we’ve yet to see him operate off his back. Ulberg landed an insane 146 significant strikes in just eight minutes and 19 seconds in his UFC debut (17.56 SSL/min), but after gassing out in that fight he’s paced himself much more in his last three fights, where he’s averaged 4.75 SSL/min. So while he’s capable of putting up huge striking totals, he appears aware that it’s wiser for him to pace himself and focus on quality over quantity with his striking. However, once he has an opponent hurt he’ll unload with a heavy combination of punches until the fight is stopped.
Ihor Potieria
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Potieria is coming off a first round TKO win over a half retired Shogun Rua, after getting knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut against Nicolae Negumereanu. His recent win needs to be taken with a massive grain of salt considering it came against a 41-year-old opponent who had already announced his retirement and Potieria looked terrible in his previous fight as he began gassing out in the first round. Prior to the loss in his debut, Potieria had somehow won 15 straight fights, including a R1 KO on DWCS to punch his ticket to the UFC. Bear in mind, almost all of those wins were against a very low level of competition.
Now 19-3 as a pro, Potieria has nine wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and four decision victories. All but one of his finishes occurred in the first round, with the other ending in round two. He’s been knocked out twice and has one decision defeat. He’s competed at both 185 lb and 205 lb in his career, but his last three fights have been at 205 lb, where it appears he’ll stay.
Overall, Potieria is technically a Ukrainian international Master of Sport in combat sambo, but he looks like a total fraud with a one round gas tank. While we haven’t been at all impressed by what we’ve seen out of him, he has shown decent power, but hasn’t really stood out anywhere else. He doesn’t land a ton of striking volume or takedowns, and has looked prone to getting controlled along the fence and taken down himself. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he failed to land any of his three takedown attempts, while he got taken down twice on three opponent attempts (33% defense). We’d be surprised if this guy made it to a second UFC contract.
Fight Prediction:
Ulberg will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also six years older than the 26-year-old Potieria.
Potieria is an absolute fraud and Ulberg should have no problem dominating him and knocking him out in this fight. However, both guys have shown cardio concerns at times and they each throw with a ton of power. So there’s at least a sliver of hope for Potieria that he can land something clean and knock Ulberg out, but we don’t see it happening. Ulberg is the more technical striker and Potieria’s karate style stance will leave his lead leg open to be attacked. Even Shogun Rua was able to land 10 leg strikes in Potieria’s recent R1 KO win. Ulberg landed several heavy leg kicks in his last fight and should be able to compromise Potieria’s movement early in this match. At that point, Potieria will be a sitting duck for Ulberg to take out and we expect Ulberg to knock him out in the first two rounds, most likely in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Ulberg is coming off a pair of first round knockout wins that both scored 106 DraftKings points. Now he’ll face an even easier opponent and this looks like a great spot for him to land his third straight finish. While he’s yet to put up a slate-breaking score and doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling, he has the ability to land punches in bunches and it’s just a matter of time before he really goes off. Each of his last two wins were very efficient performances where he didn’t put up big striking numbers leading up to the two early wins. However, the Quick Win Bonus, multiple knockdowns, or a higher volume first round knockout are all squarely in play for him. With that said, he’s been very patient with his striking in three straight fights, so a poorly timed early second round knockout without much striking behind it is also within the realm of possible outcomes. However, we like his chances of making a statement performance here and putting up a career best score. The odds imply he has a 78% chance to win, a 59% chance to land a finish, and a 34% chance it comes in round one. Ulberg is a top two play on both sites in the Model.
Potieria is coming off a R1 KO win, but that doesn’t make him any less of a fraud as it came against a half retired 41-year-old Shogun Rua. Potieria looks like a one-dimensional striker with terrible cardio. While he has attempted three takedowns in his last three fights, he failed to land any of them, and any potential wrestling would just further drain his cardio. Despite his cheap price tag, he looks like a R1 KO or bust play in a really tough matchup. We don’t have any real interest in playing him, but if he does land a hail mary knockout, he’ll almost certainly end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 22% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Ian Garry
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Just two months removed from a late third round TKO win over Song Kenan, Garry nearly suffered the first loss of his career when he got dropped in the first round of that fight, but was able to recover in the clinch after Song failed to put him away. Garry then took over from the second round on before finishing Song with a combination of strikes in the final minute. Prior to that finish, Garry won a pair of decisions over Gabriel Green and Darian Weeks, after landing a first round knockout in his UFC debut against Jordan Williams. Garry nearly got Green out of there in the third round after knocking him down, but Green was able to survive to lose a unanimous 30-27 decision. Prior to joining the UFC, Garry went 7-0 with Cage Warriors and won the vacant Welterweight title in a 25 minute decision in June 2021 just before joining the UFC. Four of Garry’s last five fights have seen the third round, with three of those going the distance.
Now 11-0 as a pro, Garry has six wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and four decisions. After going the distance in his 2019 pro debut, Garry landed five straight finishes in the first two rounds before winning the Cage Warriors Welterweight title in a five-round decision. His last five finishes have all come by KO, and his only submission victory occurred in the first round of his third pro fight. He has two first round knockouts, three in round two, and one in round three
Overall, Garry is still just 25 years old and has plenty of time to grow and round out his game. He joined Sanford MMA (now Kill Cliff FC) leading up to his UFC debut and trains with a bunch of high-level UFC fighters, which should help him with his development. At 6’3”, he has good size for the division and is a very accurate striker with good footwork, while also being a judo black belt. In his four UFC fights, he’s only attempted two takedowns, landing just one of them (50% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on four of their 11 attempts (63.6% defense). He averages 6.79 SSL/min and 4.19 SSA/min, and landed 127 and 116 significant strikes in his last two fights. Hailing from Ireland, Garry has been hyping himself up as the next Conor McGregor, saying he’ll be a world champion in the next couple of years. While he’s pretty cringe to listen to, the UFC seems on board with building him up, although now he’ll face his toughest test since joining the organization.
Daniel Rodriguez
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Looking to bounce back from the first early loss of his career, Rodriguez got submitted in the third round by Neil Magny, in what had been a close fight. Rodriguez started out 7-1 in the UFC before losing to Magny, with his only other loss coming a close/controversial decision against Nicolas Dalby. Just eight weeks before his recent loss, Rodriguez won a controversial split-decision over an undersized Li Jingliang, who had been preparing to fight Tony Ferguson at 170 lb, while Rodriguez was set to face Kevin Holland at 180 lb. However, after Chimaev missed weight by 7.5 lb the entire main card turned into a game of musical chairs and Rodriguez got matched up with Li Jingliang instead. It’s surprising that matchup was even allowed to happen after Rodriguez weighed in at 179 lb and Jingliang at just 170.5 lb. Prior to that win, Rodriguez was out for 13 months following a decision win over Kevin Lee as he had three hand surgeries on his power left hand.
Now 17-3 as a pro, Rodriguez has eight wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and five decision victories. Three of his knockouts occurred in the first round, four ended in round two, and one came in round three. While his last two submission wins occurred in the later two rounds, the first two of his career came in round one. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted once and has two decision losses. While 13 of his 20 pro fights have ended early, four of his last six fights have gone the distance. All three of his early wins in the UFC came in short notice matchups. He’s impressively won 13 of his last 15 fights, although is now 4-2 in his last six.
Overall, Rodriguez is a high-volume striker, who averages 7.42 SSL/min and 5.22 SSA/min. It’s rare to see Rodriguez shoot for a takedown and even rarer for him to land one, as he’s only completed one of his five attempts in nine UFC fights. However, he did land four of his five takedown attempts on DWCS in 2019, which factors into his 50% takedown accuracy. On the other side of things, Rodriguez has been taken down 12 times on 33 opponent attempts (63.6% defense) and his last three opponents have all gotten him down at least once. Rodriguez has been the king of short notice fights since joining the UFC, with seven of his nine UFC fights coming on short notice or with last minute opponent changes. He’s thrived in those spots but he had a full camp to prepare for this next fight, so it will be interesting to see if that helps or hurts him.
Fight Prediction:
Garry will have a 2” height advantage and is 11 years younger than the 36-year-old Rodriguez.
This sets up as a fun striking battle, with neither guy very inclined to look for takedowns. Garry is the younger, faster, taller, and more technical fighter, while Rodriguez is more of a durable brawler. However, after averaging 8.06 SSL/min in his first seven UFC fights, Rodriguez has only averaged 5.39 SSL/min in his last two matches since returning from multiple hand surgeries. And prior to the surgeries, he had an 84% takedown defense, but that’s dropped all the way down to just 25% in his last two fights since returning. Now 36 years old, you have to wonder if he’s beginning to slow down at this stage in his career or if he just had some rust to knock off in a pair of tough matchups. While he is coming off a submission loss, his chin has still held up thus far, but if/when that goes he’ll really be in trouble. We likely won’t know until it’s too late in terms of his durability fading, but Garry will certainly test it here. With that said, Garry is the one who just got dropped and badly hurt in his last match, so he’s the one that’s shown durability concerns. Rodriguez has pretty heavy hands, so Garry will need to be very careful not to eat too many clean shots. We expect Garry to learn from that last mistake and be a little more cautious when closing the distance in this one, but it’s always possible he gets caught again. However, neither of these two have ever been knocked out and both of Garry’s KO wins in the were against opponents who had been prone to getting knocked out. And on the flipside, both of Rodriguez’s UFC knockout wins were in short notice matchups, where his opponents had little to no time to prepare for him. That leads us to believe that this fight goes the distance far more often than not, and likely ends in a close decision with Garry getting his hand raised.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -122.
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DFS Implications:
Garry is giving Henry Cejudo a run for his money for the right to be called the “King of Cringe” but has still performed pretty well inside the Octagon. He’s averaged 93 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, with three scores of 95 or more, despite his last three fights all making it to the third round and two of them going the distance. While he rarely looks for takedowns, he averages 6.79 SSL/min and has landed a knockdown in three of his four UFC fights. He landed 127 significant strikes in his last match, after totaling 116 just before that. That striking-heavy style of fighting will typically score better on FanDuel than DraftKings, but unless he puts up an other-worldy striking total he still needs a finish to return value at his expensive price tag. Rodriguez has never been knocked out in his career, but is coming off his first submission loss and is now 36 years old and could be slowing down. Rodriguez also averages 5.22 SSA/min, so Garry should be able to put up another big striking total here. That should give Garry a decent floor in a decision win and still allow him to really score well even with a later finish. Rodriguez has also historically been very popular, while Garry has not, which makes Garry an interesting leverage play in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Rodriguez exploded onto the UFC scene in 2020 with three straight wins that all scored 100 or more DraftKings points. However, after averaging 105 DraftKings points in his first five UFC wins, he only averaged 77 in his last two victories and is now coming off the first early loss of his career at age 36. He had multiple hand surgeries after his 2021 win over Kevin Lee and failed to impress in his two fights since returning. Now he’s facing an undefeated prospect, so it’s not the best get-right spot for him. With that said, Garry did get dropped in the first round of his last fight and is still just 25 years old and not overly experienced. So if Rodriguez can turn this into a brawl and land something clean, it’s possible he finds a finish. Even a high-volume decision win could be enough for Rodriguez to serve as a value play at his cheap price tag, although he failed to top 88 DraftKings points in any of his last three decision victories and only scored 65 in the most recent of those. So to really score well, he’ll likely need to finish Garry, which is somewhat of a longshot. It will be interesting to see how popular Rodriguez ends up, as he was 43% owned on DraftKings as a slight underdog in his last fight, and has historically been a field favorite. We do expect his ownership to come down some from where it’s recently been, but he’ll absolutely be owned well above his chances of finding the finish he needs to put up a big score. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Johnny Walker
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Fresh off a first round TKO win over Paul Craig, Walker’s last three fights have all ended in round one, with him winning the last two of those. Just before finishing Craig, he submitted Ion Cutelaba late in the first round, after getting knocked out in the opening five minutes by Jamahal Hill. Leading up to the loss to Hill, Walker competed in a 25 minute staring contest against Thiago Santos, which is just the second time Walker has been out of the first round in 10 UFC appearances. The other was a 2020 three-round decision loss to Nikita Krylov and all six of Walker’s UFC wins have ended in round one. After knocking his first three UFC opponents out in the first round, Walker got knocked out in round one by Corey Anderson leading up to his decision loss to Krylov. He then nearly got knocked out by Ryan Spann, but turned the tables as Spann looked for a takedown and found a finish of his own, leading up to his losses to Santos and Hill. Walker is still just 3-4 in his last seven fights.
Now 20-7 as a pro, Walker has 16 wins by KO/TKO, three by submission, and one decision victory. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted once (R2 2015), and two decision defeats. His last three early losses all ended in first round knockouts, after he got finished in the second round in his first two career early losses. Of his 24 pro fights to end early (18-5), only four have made it out of round one, with just one making it to round three, which occurred in a 2015 R3 KO win 28 seconds into the third round in Walker’s 5th pro fight. His last 12 fights have either ended in the first round (7-2) or gone the distance (1-2).
Overall, Walker is a physical freak and an aggressive power puncher with a limited gas tank. Between his 10 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed both of the takedowns he’s attempted, although he’s only attempted once in his last 10 fights. On the other side of things, his opponents have gotten him down on 7 of their 17 attempts (58.8% defense). Four of his last five opponents to try and take him down have been successful, with the one exception being Thiago Santos who failed on his only attempt. While he’s a BJJ brown belt, we rarely see much grappling from him, although he was able to submit the highly submittable Ion Cutelaba. He generally relies entirely on his power and athleticism to win fights and looks extremely hittable with his poor striking defense. It’s a tough cut for him to get down to 205 lb and his chin may be paying the price for that, as he hasn’t looked very durable.
Anthony Smith
19th UFC Fight (11-7)Smith is 10 months removed from a second round TKO loss to Magomed Ankalaev, where Smith broke his leg in the first round and basically had no chance to win after that. After having surgery on the leg following the fight, Smith then had to deal with a blood clot that sounds like it took months to get past. Smith also had knee surgery following a first round submission win over Ryan Spann in his second most recent fight, so he’s been dealing with numerous injuries and medical issues over the last couple of years, in addition to the loss of his Mother leading up to his last fight. He had finished three straight opponents in the first round prior to his recent loss, with two of those ending in submissions and the other a post R1 TKO via doctor stoppage when Smith shut down Jimmy Crute’s leg with a kick to the peroneal nerve.
Now 36-17 as a pro, Smith has 19 wins by KO, 14 submissions, two decisions, and one “N/A”. He’s been knocked out 10 times, submitted four more, and has three decision losses. His last 10 wins have all come early, and he’s lost the last three decisions he’s been to. Smith fought at 185 lb until 2018 when he moved up to 205 lb, where he’s since gone 7-4. All seven of those wins came early, with five in round one, one in round three, and another in round four. Four of those wins came by submission, and three ended in knockouts, but four of his last five finishes have come by submission, with the one exception being a flukey doctor stoppage. The only two times he’s been finished at 205 lb were a 2020 R5 TKO loss to Glover Teixeira and his recent R2 TKO loss to Magomed Ankalaev. The other two losses came in decisions against Jon Jones and Aleksandar Rakic.
Overall, Smith is a BJJ black belt and has proven he’s dangerous on the ground from just about any position. While he has more knockouts than submissions on his record, four of his last five finishes have come by submission. Despite all of his submission finishes, in his 11 UFC Light Heavyweight fights Smith has only landed 3 takedowns on 12 attempts (25% accuracy). Over that same stretch, he’s been taken down 9 times on 19 attempts (47.4%) by his opponents. So he actually has more submission wins (4) than takedowns (3) at Light Heavyweight. He’s also landed four knockdowns in those 11 fights and three knockouts. He’s proven to be dangerous both on the feet and the mat, while also being durable. However, he only averages 2.99 SSL/min and has never landed more than 86 significant strikes in a fight. So while he’s a dangerous striker and grappler, he lacks both striking and takedown volume, which explains why he hasn’t won a decision since 2016.
Fight Prediction:
Walker will have a 2” height advantage, 6” reach advantage, and is three years younger than the 34-year-old Smith.
This sets up as a fun fight between two dangerous finishers. Smith is the more savvy veteran, while Walker relies on his physical gifts to overwhelm opponents with power. Looking at the advantages on both fighters posses in this matchup, Smith is the superior grappler, the more technical striker, has better cardio, is more durable, has a much higher fight IQ, and trains at elevation with a better team around him. On the other side of things, Walker is super strong. The only way Walker wins this fight is by overwhelming Smith with his explosive power, which is always possible. However, Smith has so many more ways to win, whether it be getting this fight to the ground and submitting Walker, dragging him into deep waters and testing his cardio, or simply knocking him out early. So it’s surprising that Walker is a slight favorite and if we were lining this fight Smith would be the clear favorite. We like Smith to finish Walker early, most likely in the first round, but won’t be entirely shocked if he comes in with a slightly safer/patient game plan that involves outlasting Walker and finishing him later in the fight.
Our favorite bet here is Smith’s ML at +100.
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DFS Implications:
All six of Walker’s UFC victories have ended in the first round, as have 17 of his 20 overall career wins, so it should come as no surprise that he’s averaged 113 DraftKings points in those victories. However, he’s been a R1 or bust fighter and he lost decisions in both of his UFC fights that made it out of the first round. While Smith has been finished in 14 of his 17 pro losses, his only two early losses at Light Heavyweight came in the later rounds, and he’s actually been pretty durable outside of his recent leg injury that resulted in a second round TKO loss. However, we have seen Smith struggle with the physicality of larger Light Heavyweights, so it’s possible Walker can simply overpower him with his freakish strength and hand Smith his first R1 loss in the last decade. Walker is such a boom or bust wildcard that you always want to have exposure to both sides of his fights and this one is no different, especially when you factor in the midrange price tags on both guys. The odds imply Walker has a 51% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Smith’s last 10 wins have all come early and he hasn’t won a decision since 2016. He averaged “just” 95 DraftKings points in those 10 wins/finishes and his lack of striking and takedown volume has left him reliant on landing finishes in the first two rounds to score well. Four of his last 10 finishes came in rounds three and four, and he only scored 63, 79, 70, and 83 DraftKings points in those late round finishes. That presents a path where Smith finds a finish but still gets left out of winning lineups. With that said, we’d be surprised if this fight made it to the third round and 8 of Walker’s 10 UFC fights have ended in round one. Walker has been finished five times in his career, with all of those losses ending in the first two rounds, and five of Smith’s last seven finishes have come in round one. Both fighters are live for an early finish and unless this fight turns into a complete dud the winner should find themselves in winning tournament lineups on both sites. The odds imply Smith has a 49% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Jailton Almeida
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Extending his winning streak to 13 with a second round TKO win over Shamil Abdurakhimov, Almeida’s grappling dominance has so far seamlessly translated to the Heavyweight division for his last three fights, after he had previously been fighting at Light Heavyweight. Almeida’s recent win was the longest of his career as it came two minutes and 56 seconds into the second round. The only time he’s ever been in a fight that lasted longer than that was in his lone trip to the judges, which he lost back in 2018 when he was still fighting at 185 lb. Since then, he’s finished all 13 of his opponents, with 10 ending in the first round and three in round two.
He punched his ticket to the UFC with a second round submission win on DWCS in September 2021 against a 9-0 Sambo fighter. He then landed a R1 TKO in his debut at Light Heavyweight against a grappler in Danilo Marques. Almeida was then scheduled to face another Light Heavyweight in Maxim Grishin, but Grishin withdrew and the UFC couldn’t find a replacement at 205 lb. However, Parker Porter was willing to take the fight at Heavyweight and Almeida agreed to move up a weight class to take on an opponent who was stepping in on short notice. The additional weight didn’t seem to matter much in the fight, as Almeida landed a late first round submission over Porter. Almeida then planned on facing Abdurakhimov, remaining at Heavyweight, but Abdurakhimov dropped out. So instead, a short notice 220 lb Catchweight match was booked against UFC newcomer and career Light Heavyweight, Anton Turkalj. Almeida cruised to another first round submission win and then the fight against Abdurakhimov was put back together. However, once again Abdurakhimov dropped out. Almeida then planned on returning to Light Heavyweight to face Maxim Grishin (again) in November 2022, but Grishin dropped out (again). The UFC then rebooked Almeida back up at Heavyweight in January 2023 against Abdurakhimov, and the third time finally paid off as the fight actually happened. So Almeida has twice planned on fighting Max Grishin at Light Heavyweight, but both times ended up taking a Heavyweight fight after Grishin dropped out. Those are his only two Heavyweight wins in the UFC. Also, two of his four UFC wins have come against short notice opponents, while the other two were against Shamil Abdurakhimov, who’s been knocked out in four straight fights, and Danilo Marques, who immediately got cut after suffering his second straight early loss in that match.
Now 18-2 as a pro, Almeida has seven wins by KO/TKO and 11 submission victories. His only early loss came in a 2017 16 second R1 KO in his fifth pro fight, while he also lost the only decision he’s ever been to. All 18 of Almeida’s wins have come in under eight minutes, with 13 ending in round one and the other five finishing in the opening three minutes of round two. Almeida actually started his career all the way down at 185 lb, before taking two fights at Heavyweight in 2019, both of which ended in R1 knockout wins. He then dropped down to Light Heavyweight, where he stayed for his next six fights until he moved back up to Heavyweight in his second UFC match.
This will be the 2nd five-round fight of Almeida’s career, but first in the UFC. His one previous fight scheduled to go five rounds ended in a 2021 first round submission win, so it doesn't tell us much.
Overall, Almeida comes into every fight with the same game plan of immediately getting things to the mat as violently as possible and then aggressively hunting for finishes. Five of his last seven wins have come by submission and 10 of his last 13 victories have ended in round one. He’s a BJJ black belt and an absolute powerhouse, but has about a round and a half to two rounds of cardio from what we can tell. He was sucking wind midway through round two in his last fight, and was fortunate to find a finish when he did or he might have gassed out. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Almeida has landed 12 of his 17 takedown attempts (70.6% accuracy), while he got taken down once on two opponent attempts (50% defense).
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Fresh off a 23 second first round knockout win over Chris Daukaus, Rozenstruik has struggled with consistency lately, as he’s just 3-4 in his last seven fights. Prior to knocking Daukaus out in that fight and out of the Heavyweight division moving forward, Rozenstruik suffered a R1 TKO loss of his own in a questionably quick stoppage against Alexander Volkov in a June 2022 main event. Just before that, Rozenstruik lost a three-round decision to Curtis Blaydes after knocking Augusto Sakai out in the final second of round one. The only other losses of Rozenstruik’s career were a 2021 five-round decision against Ciryl Gane and a 2020 R1 KO loss to Francis Ngannou. All seven of Rozenstruik’s UFC wins have ended in knockouts, as did five of his six wins before joining the organization.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Rozenstruik has 12 wins by KO/TKO and one split decision victory, which was in 2018, a year before he joined the UFC. Nine of his knockout wins ended in round one, two came in round two, and one ended in round five. He also has two R1 KO/TKO losses on his record, to go along with two decision defeats.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Rozenstruik’s career, and 5th in the UFC. The first time he was scheduled to go five rounds was in his last fight before joining the UFC and he knocked his opponent out in just 10 seconds. Then after knocking out his first three UFC opponents, he took on Alistair Overeem in a 2019 five-round match. Overeem won the first three rounds on all three judges’ scorecards and just needed to survive to win a decision, but Rozenstruik landed a lip-splitting last second KO with four seconds left in the 5th round to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Following that win, Rozenstruik split a pair of three-round fights before taking on Ciryl Gane in a five-round staring contest, where Rozenstruik only landed 42 significant strikes in 25 minutes (1.68 SSL/min) on his way to a unanimous 50-45 decision loss. Unphased, the UFC immediately put him right back in another five-round matchup, this time against an easier opponent in Augusto Sakai, and Rozenstruik landed a knockout with just a second left in the first round and finished ahead just 16-3 in significant strikes. He followed that up with a three-round decision loss, before suffering a R1 TKO loss to Alexander Volkov in his last fight that was scheduled to go five-rounds. Rozenstruik is 3-2 in five-round fights in his career and 2-2 in the UFC.
Overall, Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional Surinamese kickboxer. He has zero desire to go to the mat and has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. He does have a solid 75% takedown defense, although only four opponents have actually tried to take him down and combined to land 9 takedowns on 36 attempts, with each of those opponents getting him down at least twice on six or more attempts. He’s always a threat to finish opponents with a single blow, but doesn’t land much striking volume and only averages 2.93 SSL/min and 3.23 SSA/min. He’s lost all four of the fights where he’s been outlanded in the UFC, while he’s 7-0 when he holds a striking lead.
Fight Prediction:
Almeida will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is four years younger than the 35-year-old Rozenstruik.
Both of these fighters are very one-dimensional and we know exactly what to expect from each of them. Almeida is always looking for early takedowns and finishes on the mat, while Rozenstruik will be looking for a kill shot on the feet. While Rozenstruik has shown the ability to go five rounds and remain dangerous late in fights, Almeida has never won a match that lasted longer than eight minutes and looked to be slowing and breathing very heavily just before he found the second round finish in his last fight. We’d be surprised to see Almeida go three hard rounds, let alone five. That leaves him reliant on finding a finish in the first two rounds to win, something he’s been amazingly efficient at. However, it’s just a matter of time before someone extends him past the second round and we see his cardio collapse. Rozenstruik also may not need to wait that long if he can connect on anything clean, and Almeida is so predictable with his takedowns that an early uppercut or flying knee KO from Rozenstruik would not at all be surprising. So there are multiple ways for Rozenstruik to win this fight, whether it be by early knockout or simply surviving for 10 minutes to outlast Almeida’s limited gas tank. The idea that Almeida could accidentally end up in the Heavyweight division after taking on a short notice opponent and then slice through the entire weight class without facing any resistance while being a one-dimensional grappler with bad cardio seems sort of far-fetched and this will be his first real test since joining the UFC. While he’s so dangerous with his grappling that he’s looked like a cheat code and he’ll always have a great shot at putting opponents away in the the first eight minutes of fights, we actually like the chances of Rozenstruik landing a knockout much more than the oddsmakers do, and we’ll say Rozenstruik knocks Almeida out in the first half of this fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Rozenstruik R1, R2, or R3 KO” at +700.
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DFS Implications:
Almeida has finished 13 straight opponents and all 18 of his career wins have come in under eight minutes. He’s been breaking one DFS slate after the next, with DraftKings scores of 125, 121, 114, and 118 in his four UFC fights. He’s shown the explosiveness and power to compete at both Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight, but he’s also been facing a low level of competition, with two of those four opponents stepping in on short notice. Almeida is a one-trick pony, who’s only path to winning fights is to get opponents down and finish them on the mat in the first two rounds before he dies of exhaustion. We saw him get cracked on the feet in the opening seconds of his last fight against a washed up 41-year-old fighter who had been knocked out in three straight fights. Almeida also looked to be slowing down and breathing very heavily midway through the second round. While he was able to overcome both of those obstacles and still land a finish four seconds before the eight minute mark (longest win of his career), we did start to see some cracks in the foundation there. Now he’ll face a massive step up in competition and really the first dangerous opponent he’s gone up against in the UFC. If Rozenstruik lands the same punch that Abdurakhimov did in Almeida’s last fight, there’s a good chance the fight will be over. Rozenstruik also has a pretty solid 75% takedown defense, although all four of the opponents who have tried to take him down landed two or more of their attempts, so his defense has been far from impenetrable. And while Rozenstruik has never been submitted, he’s also never faced as dangerous a grappler as Almeida. So if Almeida can get this fight to the ground before eating any big shots, he’ll have a good chance to lock up his 14th straight finish and put up another big score. As the most expensive fighter on the card, it’s possible that Almeida lands an efficient finish and gets priced out of winning lineups, so he’s not a lock to be in the optimal with a win. Also keep in mind, he’ll be the most popular fighter on the slate, so you’ll need to make sure to include some lower owned fighters in any tournament lineups that include him. The odds imply he has an 81% chance to win, a 71% chance to land a finish, and a 45% chance it comes in round one.
Rozenstruik is your prototypical KO or bust fighter, with all seven of his UFC wins ending in knockouts. He averaged 110 DraftKings points in those seven wins, with three of them ending in 29 seconds or less and garnering the Quick Win Bonus. He still managed to score 97 and 94 points in his two second round knockouts, and 90 points in a fifth round finish. While those scores won’t jump off the page, as the cheapest fighter on the card they would likely still be enough for him to be useful. However, it’s always possible that Rozenstruik gets controlled for a round or two and then lands an early second or third round knockout with very little striking behind it and scores worse than he ever has in the past. If we then see multiple other underdogs win and score well, he could get left out of tournament winning lineups. It’s still far more likely that he ends up in the optimal with a win and he’s shown a massive ceiling with 43% of his UFC wins coming in under a minute. He’ll also be an exceptionally good leverage play against the most popular fight on the card, just keep in mind, he’s also the most likely fighter on the card to get finished according to the odds and he has a non-existent floor. The odds imply he has a 19% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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