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Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Mick Parkin
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Still undefeated as a pro, Parkin is coming off a pair of decision wins in his first two UFC fights. The most recent of those was against UFC newcomer Caio Machado, who Parkin took down three times and controlled for six and a half minutes to secure the win. However, Parkin wasn’t able to do much with the takedowns and never threatened a finish. Both guys slowed down in round three and limped to the finish line. Surprisingly, all three judges scored the first round for Machado and the third round for Parkin, despite Parkin landing two takedowns in the first round and controlling Machado for over two and a half minutes, and then failing to land a takedown in round three and getting outstruck by Machado 35-23 in the final five minutes. In the end, Parkin landed 3 of his 10 takedown attempts, while Machado finished ahead 76-39 in significant strikes. While that decision was close, in his UFC debut just before that, Parkin easily cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win in a pure striking battle against Jamal Pogues, finishing ahead 95-36 in significant strikes. That fight took place in front of Parkin’s home London crowd, as he fought alongside his teammate Tom Aspinall. However, just before that, Parkin fought in the Apex for his DWCS match and locked up a first round submission—the only submission win of his career. Parkin only turned pro in 2019, but finished his first six opponents in the first two rounds before joining the UFC. Prior to going on DWCS, he had exclusively been fighting on the England regional scene, where there aren’t a ton of Heavyweight fighters to train with according to Tom Aspinall.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Parkin has five KO/TKO wins, one submission victory, and two decision wins. Four of his finishes ended in round one, with the other two coming in round two. After he finished his first three opponents in the first round, four of his last five fights saw round two, with his last two going the distance. None of Parkin’s first five opponents came in with winning records, so he’s been beating up on a very low level of competition for most of his career.
Overall, Parkin is an English Heavyweight, who spent the majority of his early career on the regional scene looking to take opponents down and finish them fight ground and pound on the mat. While he’s still pretty green, you can tell he’s been working on his striking and he’s been more comfortable on the feet since joining the UFC. He did a good job of landing leg kicks in his UFC debut, connecting on all 42 that he threw. However, he’s still pretty lumbering and doesn’t look very explosive with his striking. We did see Parkin look to wrestle more in his last fight, but he didn’t look very dangerous on the mat and struggled to land takedowns later in the fight. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 5 of his 12 takedown attempts (41.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on two of their four attempts (50% defense). The fact that Parkin trains with Aspinall is encouraging for his continued growth as a fighter, and at just 28 years old, Parkin is still a baby in the Heavyweight division.
Mohammed Usman
4th UFC Fight (2-0)Also coming off two straight decision wins, Usman recently outlasted Jake Collier to win each of the later rounds, after dropping round one. The striking numbers ended up being close, with Collier ahead 87-85 in significant strikes and Usman ahead 118-100 in total strikes. Usman secured the win with a takedown and three minutes of control time in round three, after failing to land his only attempt in the first two rounds. The fight almost got stopped in round two after Usman poked Collier in the eye, but Collier refused to quit. Prior to that, Usman won a wrestling-heavy decision over a one-dimensional kickboxer in Junior Tafa, where Usman only landed 2 of his 12 takedown attempts, but finished with 12 minutes of control time as he hung on for dear life for 15 minutes. Usman only landed seven significant strikes in the fight, while Tafa landed 22. That came just after Usman landed an early R2 KO win on the finale of The Ultimate Fighter, which is his only finish since 2019. That came against a career Light Heavyweight in Zac Pauga, who only moved up to Heavyweight to be on the show and moved back down to 205 lb for his next fight. Usman dropped Pauga with a non-chanlant left hand that says more about Pauga’s chin than Usman’s power and Pauga went 1-3 in the UFC with two knockout losses. Both of Usman’s previous wins on TUF went the distance and despite his imposing physique he hasn’t been any sort of dominant finisher. Just prior to going on the show, Usman got dropped twice and then submitted in the second round of a 2021 PFL fight, after winning a decision in 2020. That PFL loss came against a 40-year-old Brandon Sayles, who hadn’t fought in three and a half years leading up to that fight and was knocked out in his only match since.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Usman has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and four decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted once and has one decision loss. All six of Usman’s early wins occurred in the first six minutes of fights, with the first five ending in round one. Both of his submission victories ended in kimuras in his first two pro fights against opponents with losing records and his last four finishes all ended in knockout. Only five of his 10 wins came against opponents with winning records and he has a disturbing 2018 decision loss to Don'Tale Mayes on his resume.
Overall, Usman is a muscle-bound Heavyweight whose bark is worse than his bite. He’ll throw a big overhand right, but doesn’t connect with it all that often and hasn’t knocked out an actual Heavyweight opponent in four and a half years. Usman has also looked somewhat chinny and at 34 years old we doubt he’s improving all that much at this stage in his career. He has a football background, as he played Defensive End at University of Arizona, but he also wrestled in high-school. He will shoot for takedowns in the right matchup, but don’t be mistaken, his wrestling is nothing like his brother’s. In his three UFC matches, he landed just 3 of his 16 takedown attempts (18.8% accuracy), while no one has tried to take him down. Usman’s nickname is “The Motor” and he’s got decent cardio for a big guy, which is useful in a division where most fighters don’t.
Fight Prediction:
Parkin will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 79” reach. Parkin is six years younger than the 34-year-old Usman.
Neither of these two have shown much finishing ability in the UFC, so it’s no surprise that the oddsmakers are expecting this one to go the distance, despite it being a Heavyweight matchup. While Parkin showed the ability to finish regional opponents on the mat, that hasn’t carried over into the UFC, and he’s basically a point fighter on the feet. Usman has a little more snap in his punches, but still isn’t much of a finishing threat either and also hasn't looked at all dangerous on the mat when he’s landed takedowns. No one has tried to take Usman down in the UFC or in either of his fights on TUF, so it’s tougher to gauge his defensive wrestling, but he has shown some offensive wrestling. Most Heavyweights don’t fare well off their backs, so it will be interesting to see if anyone can land a takedown here. If not, this will likely play out as a methodical striking battle, with Parkin mixing in more leg kicks and Usman looking to land bigger punches. We’re expecting to see a close decision that could go either way, but we give Parkin the slight advantage and he’s also the more durable of the two, which makes him a little safer. Parkin by decision is the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Parkin/Usman FGTD” at -136.
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DFS Implications:
Parkin convincingly won a decision in his UFC debut, outlanding Jamal Pogues 95-36 in significant strikes in the pure stand up affair, but only scored 69 DraftKings points in the process. We then saw him look to wrestle more in his last fight, and while he landed three takedowns, he wasn’t able to do much with them and still only scored 83 DraftKings points in another decision win. He was never close to finding a finish in either of those fights and doesn’t push a high enough pace to score well in decisions, which makes it hard to get excited about playing him moving forward. However, he’s still only 28 years old and should be improving all the time. He’s added a new wrinkle to his game in each of his last three fights and maybe he’ll get a little more aggressive looking for a finish in this one, but all we can do is speculate. Usman has been kind of chinny in the past, so even if Parkin hasn’t looked dangerous, it’s not a bad matchup for him to land a knockout. With that said, the most likely outcome is that he wins another decision and fails to score enough to be useful. The odds imply Parkin has a 57% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Usman has somehow wiggled his way to 3-0 in the UFC and has been very consistent with his scoring. He landed a rare knockout in the second round of his debut (against a Light Heavyweight), and scored 85 DraftKings points in the process. Then he won a wrestling-heavy decision against a debuting one-dimensional kickboxer and scored 79 points. Most recently, he outlasted a gasser to score 81 points in another decision win. So Usman has been able to capitalize on the weaknesses of his opponents, but now he’ll face a more well-rounded test in Parkin. The biggest thing Usman has going for him in this matchup is that Parkin hasn’t looked especially dangerous and is less likely to expose Usman’s suspect chin. That should give Usman the freedom to let his hands go, although he doesn’t land enough volume to score well without a finish. Parkin has looked very durable and we’d be surprised to see Usman finish him or find a ton of wrestling success, leaving Usman with a low ceiling. Maybe he can still serve as a value play in a decision win at his cheaper price tag, but that will likely require a slate where not many dogs win, which is not what we’re expecting. The odds imply Usman has a 43% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Andre Lima
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a lackluster decision win on DWCS, Lima wasn’t really able to showcase his full skillset as he faced a coward who circled away from him along the outside of the Octagon for the entire fight until Lima was finally able to get his hands on him in round three and take him down. Lima finished the fight ahead 61-25 in significant strikes, while landing his only takedown attempt in the fight and stuffing all four of his opponent’s attempts. Prior to that, he landed a ground and pound finish in the LFA in the final second of round two, in a fight where we saw more grappling out of him. He’s still undefeated in MMA, but he did get finished in the third round of a 2023 Muay Thai fight due to a doctor stoppage for a cut.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Lima has five wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. Four of his five finishes ended in under four minutes, with the other coming in round two.
Overall, Lima is a three-time Brazilian kickboxing champion and said he has around 80 kickboxing and Muay Thai fights, even if he only turned pro in MMA in late 2022. He’s been very active since turning pro and he was basically fighting once a month initially and then four times in 2023. He also has all sorts of modified rules fights on his record so he’s not short on combat experience. He’s still only 25 years old, but started training when he was just 10 and never stopped. And despite his background as a striker, he’s also a BJJ brown belt and has shown decent wrestling and grappling. He’s pretty defensively sound as well, which results in him not pushing a crazy pace. We’re interested to see how he continues to develop and he seems to have some potential if he keeps putting in the work, but he doesn’t look like a finished product quite yet.
Igor Da Silva/Severino
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Entering the UFC as a 20-year-old undefeated prospect, Severino recently landed an impressive second round TKO win on DWCS. He finished with two knockdowns and five takedowns, while leading in significant strikes 78-37. One thing to keep in mind is that he was facing an opponent who had only fought once in the last four and a half years and who had spent most of his career at 115 lb, which is very rare to see in men’s MMA. Prior to that, Severino went on a run with the Jungle Fight promotion in Brazil, where he won the vacant Flyweight belt just before going on DWCS.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Severino has four KO/TKO wins and four more by submission, with all eight of his fights ending in under 2.5 rounds. He has three first round finishes, four in round two, and one in round three. His last six wins all ended in the first two rounds, with three of his last four finishes coming via R2 TKO.
Overall, Severino is an aggressive young fighter who only turns 21 next month and trains at Chute Boxe in Brazil. He’s only listed as a BJJ purple belt but has good grappling, especially for a 20-year-old. He’s also dangerous with his striking, but can get pretty reckless, as he loads up on a lot of his shots. Nevertheless, he looks mature beyond his years and is clearly very talented. He likes to push a pace and has yet to require the judges in his career, so look for him to put on some fun performances in the UFC. He’s definitely an interesting young prospect to keep an eye on.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7”, but Severino will have a 2” reach advantage, while Lima is five years older than the 20-year-old Severino.
It’s kind of surprising that the UFC is pairing up two undefeated Brazilian prospects in their respective debuts, but we have seen this from time to time. Both guys are coming off wins on DWCS, although Severino put on a show with his finish, while Lima won a boring decision, largely at the fault of his opponent. Lima is the more experienced striker, but only turned pro in MMA a year and a half ago. And while Severino is only 20 years old, he somehow turned pro all the way back in 2018, when he was just 15 years old. We’ve seen other really young guys like Cameron Saaimain, Josh Van, and Muhammad Mokaev find immediate success in the UFC, but there are often growing pains at such a young age, as Raul Rosas and Chase Hooper can attest to. Nevertheless, the last five male debuting fighters under the age of 22 managed to go 4-1, with the one loser being Francisco Prado in a decision against Jamie Mullarkey. Obviously matchmaking plays a key role and three of those four winners were big favorites, while Van was the only underdog winner. Severino checks in as a small underdog here, and it looks like a tough matchup. However, both of these two are unproven in the UFC and there’s always some additional volatility with debuting fighters. Lima is the cleaner striker, so it would make sense for Severino to lean on his grappling, but this fight has the potential to go a few different ways. Severino can win minutes on the ground and potentially even find a finish, but we like Lima’s chances if the fight remains standing, or if he can assume top position on the mat. We agree with the odds and Lima appears deserving of being a slight favorite, but both guys are definitely live in this spot. We can see this fight going a lot of different ways depending on how aggressive Severino is. It’s possible that we see Severino empty his tank looking for a finish and then Lima knocks him out late in the fight, but we slightly lean towards Lima winning by decision if we’re forced to choose.
Our favorite bet here is “Andre Lima DEC” at +260.
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DFS Implications:
Lima looks like a solid young fighter at 25 years old and has tons of Muay Thai and kickboxing experience, even if he only turned pro in MMA a year and a half ago. He’s also a BJJ brown belt and appears pretty well rounded, so he doesn't look to have many gaping holes in his game. When it comes to DFS, his pace isn’t ideal, but five of his seven career wins did end in knockouts. And now he’s getting an uptempo opponent who could force Lima into a higher volume fight. Both fighters are making their respective debut, which adds some additional volatility to the matchup, and Severino is just 20-years-old and has never seen the scorecards. Based on the finishing upside for both guys and the pace that Severino sets, it will be risky not to have exposure to both sides, but it also won’t be at all surprising if Lima wins a decision and doesn’t score enough to be useful at his high price tag. So it’s a tricky spot and probably not one you want to take an aggressive stand on if you don’t have to. The odds imply Lima has a 62% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Severino showed massive scoring upside in his recent R2 TKO win on DWCS, which would have been good for 151 DraftKings points and 174 points on FanDuel. He completely filled up the statsheet in that fight, as he landed two knockdowns and five takedowns. Just keep in mind, it came against an opponent who had only fought once in the last four and a half years and who spent most of his career competing at 115 lb. Nevertheless, Severino looks like a dangerous finisher and comes into the UFC undefeated and with a 100% finishing rate. He’s only 20 years old, which is somewhat concerning, but the last five debuting male fighters below the age of 22 did manage to go 4-1, with three of those wins ending early. However, Lima looks like a game opponent and won’t be easy to get him out of there. But when you consider Severino’s cheap price tag and ability to grapple, even a decision win may be enough for him to be useful. So you’ll definitely want to have some exposure and he’ll have a huge ceiling every time he steps inside the Octagon, even if his floor is uncertain. And if he ends up losing here, it likely means we’ll just get an even better spot on him next time, so worst case scenario you can think of those entry fees as an investment into the future. The odds imply Severino has a 38% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Daria Zhelezniakova
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Zheleznykova will once again be attempting to make her UFC debut, after she had originally been scheduled to fight Tainara Lisboa last October, but ended up dropping out. The last time Zheleznykova competed was with Ares FC in April 2023, when she landed a first round knockout against a 42-year-old opponent who then dropped down a weight class after the loss. Prior to that, Zheleznykova was the one who was finished in a R1 ground and pound TKO against Melissa Dixon, who recently made her own UFC debut. Looking back one fight further, Zheleznykova won a decision over a terrible Liana Jojua, who had just been cut from the UFC and was moving up a weight class. Jojua put up one of the most pathetic efforts you’ll ever see from a fighter and fought like a kid who needed a nap.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Zheleznykova has five wins by TKO and three decision victories. She has two first round finishes and three in round two. Her only loss also ended in a R1 TKO. One of her three decision wins came in a two-round fight and she’s only seen the third round twice in her career.
Overall, Zheleznykova is a Russian boxer with good size, as she stands 5’9”. She hasn’t shown a whole lot in the way of grappling, but can hold top position and land ground and pound. She’s still only 28 years old, and with only nine pro fights you would assume she’s still working on evolving her skill set. While she’s a pretty good striker, her biggest area of weakness is working out of bottom position on the mat and we expect anyone who can wrestle to be looking to take her down.
Montserrat Rendon
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Rendon is coming off a split decision win in her recent UFC debut against Tamires Vidal, where Rendon landed three of her five takedown attempts and finished slightly ahead 69-60 in significant strikes. Almost exactly a year before that, Rendon won another split decision with Invicta and we’ve yet to see one of her pro fights end early. After making her pro debut in September 2020, Rendon competed in a couple of grappling matches, winning a decision and then getting submitted by TUF winner, Juliana Miller. Rendon then returned to MMA in October 2021 and won four straight decisions over the next 12 months, before she had two booked fights fall through and was forced to the sidelines for a year leading up to her UFC debut.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Rendon has won decisions in all six of her pro fights, but hasn’t faced much in the way of competition. Before joining the UFC, her last win came against Brittney Cloudy, who came in 4-4 and was the most experienced fighter Rendon had faced.
Overall, Rendon comes from a jiu-jitsu background and claims to be a 12-time national jiu-jitsu champion in Mexico, but is also just a BJJ purple belt and has never submitted anybody in a UFC fight. While she will mix in occasional takedowns, she mostly relies on her striking. While she throws a decent amount of volume, she doesn’t have much power and hasn’t been especially impressive anywhere. She’s barely scraped by against low-level regional opponents, but is active enough on the feet to keep fights competitive. While she only has six pro fights, she’s already 35 years old and got a late start in MMA.
Fight Prediction:
Zheleznykova will have a 1” height, but both fighters share a 68” reach. Zheleznykova is seven years younger than the 35-year-old Rendon.
Both of these two are tall strikers, but Zheleznykova has been more impressive on the feet and throws the more damaging blows. Rendon theoretically has an advantage on the mat based on her jiu jitsu background, but we’ve yet to see her show any legitimate grappling in an MMA fight. She will look for occasional takedowns, but that’s been the extent of her ground game from what we’ve seen. However, it would be wise for her to try to get this fight to the mat, as Rendon is unlikely to win a pure striking battle. We’re not sold on either one of these two, but we like Zheleznykova’s chances of outlanding her way to a decision win. She’ll also be the one inflicting more damage, so it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if she forced a TKO stoppage, but we’re still betting it goes the distance.
Our favorite bet here is “Dariya Zheleznykova DEC” at +150.
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DFS Implications:
Zheleznykova is a Russian Boxer who relies heavily on her striking to win fights and will now be making her UFC debut. She doesn’t offer a whole lot in terms of wrestling, but does land a good amount of striking volume when she can keep fights on the feet and off the fence. We don’t see her landing enough strikes to score well in a decision, but there is enough volume there for her to still score well with a late finish. Nevertheless, she’s a KO or bust fighter. While her opponent is undefeated and has gone the distance in all of her pro fights, Rendon isn’t anything special and it’s possible we see Zheleznykova do enough damage to get her out of there. However, it’s still more likely that Zheleznykova outlands her way to a decision win and fails to score enough to be useful at her high price tag. The odds imply Zheleznykova has a 66% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Rendon is coming off a split decision win in her UFC debut that was good for 90 DraftKings, with the help of three takedowns landed and just under five minutes of control time. That’s more grappling than we saw from her in her previous two fights combined, but she claims to be a 12-time Mexican national jiu-jitsu champion. Despite that, she hasn’t looked very impressive on the mat and typically relies mostly on her striking. She hasn’t looked at all dangerous on the feet either, so she’s very reliant on putting up volume and mixing in takedowns to try and score well in decisions, with all six of her pro fights ending in decision wins. Despite having limited MMA experience, she’s already 35 years old, so we probably shouldn’t be expecting dramatic improvements from her at this stage of her career. She looks outmatched on the feet in this matchup, so maybe she will look to grapple more and Zheleznykova has been bad off her back. That at least creates a path to Rendon winning and scoring decently on DraftKings, and at her cheap price tag she doesn’t need to put up a huge score to be useful. The odds imply Rendon has a 34% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Steven Nguyen
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Nguyen will be making his UFC debut following a September 2023 second round TKO win over a terrible AJ Cunningham. Nguyen outlanded Cunningham 103-69 in significant strikes and almost knocked him out right at the end of round one, but Cunningham was saved by the bell. The fight was later stopped on the feet as Nguyen unloaded on his helpless opponent. Nguyen initially went on DWCS in 2019, but got knocked out late in the third round by a suspect Aalon Cruz, who then went 0-2 in the UFC with two quick first round knockout losses. Nguyen then returned to the regional scene and landed a quick 30 second knockout of his own in the LFA. The UFC then brought him back on DWCS in September 2021, where Nguyen won a high-volume decision, outlanding his opponent 126-89 in significant strikes. However, that wasn’t enough for him to get a contract and Nguyen then didn’t have a fight booked for two years until his most recent DWCS win. Amazingly, Nguyen has only had one fight outside of DWCS since April 2019.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Nguyen has four KO/TKO wins, three submissions, and two decision victories. He has two first round knockouts, one in round two, and another in round four. All three of his submission wins ended in the first round over his first five pro fights, with the last two of those coming by guillotine. He was knocked out in the third round of his only pro loss. He hasn’t faced much in the way of competition, so take all of his finishes with a grain of salt.
Overall, Nguyen is a striker who started training Taekwondo and karate when he was 5 years old. While he hasn’t shown much in the way of explosive power, he lands a good amount of volume, averaging 8.29 SSL/min and 7.49 SSA/min in his three DWCS fights. However, he never attempted a takedown in any of those fights, while his opponents got him down on 2 of their 12 attempts (83.3% defense). Nguyen trains at Fortis MMA so he has a good team around him and plenty of high-level training partners and coaches to learn from.
Jarno Errens
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Still in search of his first UFC win, Errens is coming off a low-volume decision loss to SeungWoo Choi. Errens was able to drop Choi in the second round, but lost the first and third rounds. Errens went down from leg kicks late in the fight, but Choi foolishly went to the mat with him instead of making him try to stand up, or else we likely would have seen a TKO loss for Errens. Choi finished ahead 56-30 in significant strikes and landed his only takedown attempt, while Errens failed to land any of his four attempts. Eleven months prior to that, Errens lost a split/majority decision in his short notice UFC debut against William Gomis, who was also fighting with the UFC for the first time. Gomis took Errens down three times and controlled him for eight minutes. Errens wasn’t able to do much in the fight and finished behind in significant strikes 20-32 and in total strikes 31-69. The only reason the decision wasn’t unanimous for Gomis is that some rogue French judge gave out an ultra rare 10-10 third round, while also somehow scoring round two for Errens, despite him clearly losing the round. Just four weeks prior to that loss, Errens won a decision with Brave FC, after losing a five-round decision for the NFC vacant Featherweight belt just before that. Errens’ last four and six of his last seven fights went the distance (2-3-1), with two of those decisions being split/majority (0-1-1). His only fight in his last seven to end early was a 2021 67 second first round knockout, with his second most recent finish ending in a 13 second knockout win back in 2021. So his recent results have been very polarized between decisions and quick finishes. His last four fights all included large amounts of control time, with very little striking, and he came very close to going 0-4 in those fights, but narrowly squeaked out a decision win just before making his UFC debut.
Now 13-5-1 as a pro, Errens has three wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once, and has four decision losses. Four of his eight early wins ended in the first round, three ended in round two, and one was stopped in round three.
Overall, Errens is a Dutch kickboxer with solid power, but has bad wrestling and has been very prone to being controlled on the mat. He’ll often try to defend takedowns by going for guillotines, and will look for various chokes on the mat in addition to armbars, and he nearly locked up a submission off his back late in the third round of his UFC debut. In his two UFC fights, he failed to land any of his six takedown attempts, while his opponents got him down on four of their six attempts (33.3% defense). It’s rare to see much striking volume in his matches and he only averages 1.67 SSL/min and 2.93 SSA/min. Most of his fights end in either grappling-heavy decisions or quick finishes. He seems very raw in his abilities and relies on his raw finishing ability, opposed to winning minutes in fights.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’11” with a 73” reach, while Errens is a year younger than the 30-year-old Nguyen.
Neither of these two have been overly impressive, but Nguyen is the more technical striker who’s shown the ability to pick his opponents apart on the feet and be the more consistent fighter. Errens seems more reliant on landing finishes, which isn’t ideal for him considering only one of his last seven fights ended early. However, he does have good power and decency submission skills, so he’s always dangerous in fights. We have seen Nguyen violently knocked out before, and he hasn’t shown much in the way of grappling, so it’s possible that Errens can catch him and finally secure his first UFC win. However, if it does go the distance, look for Nguyen to outland his way to victory. Those are the only two ways we see this fight going, and we haven’t been impressed by Nguyen’s finishing ability, so it seems like a pretty binary matchup. Nguyen by decision will be our pick, but Errens will definitely have a shot to finish him.
Our favorite bet here is “Steven Nguyen DEC” at +145.
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DFS Implications:
Nguyen lands a good amount of striking volume, but failed to attempt a takedown in any of his three DWCS fights and doesn't appear to offer anything in terms of wrestling. And while 80% of his career fights ended early, that says more about the level of competition that he’s been facing than his actual finishing ability. He’s got decent striking, but not a ton of power and we don’t see him finishing many opponents at the UFC level. And now he’s facing an opponent who’s never been knocked out and only averages 2.93 SSA/min, so this looks like a tough spot for Nguyen to succeed, especially as the most expensive fighter on DraftKings. In his one decision win on DWCS, Nguyen landed 126 significant strikes, but still only would have scored 86 DraftKings points and 96 points on FanDuel. We’d be surprised to see him land nearly as many strikes here, and he’ll need a well timed finish to return value. It would be unwise to chase his most recent R2 TKO result, as that came against one of the worst fighters on the roster and anyone could have scored well in that spot. The odds imply Nguyen has a 62% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Errens is a Dutch kickboxer with solid power and some submission skills. He’s been involved in a lot of low-volume grappling-heavy decisions lately, where he spends a lot of time on his back, and six of his last seven fights went the distance (2-3-1). He only landed 20 significant strikes in his UFC debut and just 30 in his last match, with both of those fights ending in decision losses. He also failed to land any of his six takedown attempts in those fights and overall has been very unimpressive. He pathetically scored just 38 total DraftKings points across those six rounds of action and has shown zero ability to score well without a finish. However, he does get a pace up matchup here against an opponent who’s shown no desire to take opponents down and control them, so at least Errens should get more opportunities to land the finishing blow he needs to score well. And as the cheapest fighter on the card, even if he gets a finish in the later rounds that likely won’t return a huge score, it will likely still be enough for him to be useful. However, we’re only playing him for his finishing ability and we don’t see him winning a decision or scoring well even if he does. The odds imply Errens has a 38% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Miles Johns
8th UFC Fight (4-2, NC)Stepping in on short notice, Johns was only announced as the replacement 15 days out after Davey Grant dropped out.
Johns won a decision over Dan Argueta last September, but the results were later overturned to a No Contest and Johns was suspended for four and a half months after he tested positive for “the M3 metabolite, which is found in DHCMT—better known as oral turinabol, an anabolic steroid.” That fight seemed much closer than the scorecards indicated, and Johns only finished ahead 43-33 in significant strikes, while both fighters finished with two takedowns and around four minutes of control time apiece. Johns was in trouble in the first round after Argueta took his back, but was able to escape the position. Prior to that, Johns won another low-volume decision over Vince Morales, where Morales actually finished ahead 39-38 in significant strikes. After only attempting 10 takedowns in his first five UFC fights combined, Johns shot for 12 in that last match, although only completed one of them. Johns had been training at Fortis in Texas but switched to Glory MMA for that fight to be closer to home, just before Glory shut down. He was then forced to switch gyms once again and is now training with Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA. Leading up to his recent two decision wins, Johns got submitted in the third round by John Castaneda, after landing a pair of third round knockouts against Anderson dos Santos and Kevin Natividad. Just before those two finishes, Johns was knocked out in the second round by Mario Bautista, after winning a split decision in his UFC debut against Cole Smith.
Now 13-2 plus a NC as a pro, Johns has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and seven decision victories. Both of his losses ended early, with a second round flying knee KO against Mario Bautista and a third round submission against John Castaneda. Johns is 7-0 in fights that have gone the distance (or 8-0 if you count his last decision that was later overturned to a No Contest), including a 5-round split decision win over Adrian Yanez for the LFA belt back in 2018. All 16 of Johns’ pro fights made it to the second round, with 12 seeing round three and eight going the distance.
Overall, Johns has a wrestling background and actually turned down a wrestling scholarship to focus on MMA. Despite his wrestling experience, he’s struggled with his takedown accuracy and has only landed three takedowns in his last six fights. And between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed just 7 of his 32 takedown attempts (21.9% accuracy), while his opponents only landed three of their 20 attempts against him (85% defense). Johns also doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, averaging just 3.51 SSL/min and 2.75 SSA/min, leaving him reliant on landing the more impactful shots in fights. He also has cardio concerns that leave him more vulnerable in the later rounds and it’s amazing he’s never lost a decision. He does throw with bad intentions and does damage when he lands, but all of his UFC wins have come against struggling opponents.
Cody Gibson
6th UFC Fight (1-4)Gibson had spent months preparing for a striker in Davey Grant, before he dropped out and Johns was announced as the replacement just over two weeks ago.
Gibson is coming off a crazy high-volume decision loss to Brad Katona in the finale of The Ultimate Fighter, that was still impressive enough for the UFC to bring him back on. Gibson actually finished slightly ahead in significant strikes 164-160, while no takedowns or knockdowns were accrued by either fighter. Prior to that loss, Gibson landed back-to-back first round finishes on TUF, with the first of those ending in a TKO and the second a submission. He suffered a partial MCL tear in that first fight, but toughed through it and still won his second match despite the injury. Gibson originally joined the UFC all the way back in 2014 and made his short notice debut against Aljamain Sterling, who was also debuting. Gibson gave Sterling a run for his money and took Sterling down four times in the match, but Sterling took over in the third round to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. Gibson followed that up with a 38 second R1 TKO win over Johnny Bedford that had somewhat of a quick/controversial stoppage. Gibson then got submitted in the second round of his next fight, before losing a decision to a really tough Douglas Silva de Andrade. He was then released in 2015, but proceeded to go 7-2 on the regional scene leading up to his run on TUF. One of those seven wins notably came in a decision against a really tough John Dodson, while one of the losses was in a decision to Ray Borg. So Gibson has fought plenty of legitimate competition, although has had mixed results in those fights.
Now 19-9 as a pro, Gibson has seven wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and eight decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted four times and has five decision losses. All four of his submission losses occurred in the later rounds, with the last three of those coming via guillotine.
Overall, Gibson is a well-rounded fighter with a wrestling background and a BJJ brown belt, who has really good size for the 135 lb division at 5’10”. He’s dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but has been prone to getting submitted, especially by guillotine. In his five UFC fights, Gibson landed 5 of his 14 takedown attempts (35.7% accuracy), while his opponents similarly got him down on 5 of their 14 attempts (64.3% defense). Gibson landed more significant strikes in his last fight (164) than his first four UFC fights combined (100), while looking to wrestle far less in that matchup. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues here as he takes on an opponent who also has a wrestling background.
Fight Prediction:
Gibson will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while Johns is seven years younger than the 36-year-old Gibson.
There’s a lot going on here, as Johns steps in on just over two weeks notice following a PED suspension and is already known for having bad cardio. Miles Johns’ coach, Trey Ogden, is fighting just two fights after Johns on this card, so Johns also won’t have his head coach in his corner. That’s especially important since this fight is at the Apex where you can hear everything your corner says and coaches can be especially during rounds. At least according to Johns, the suspension was more of a technicality, but who really knows. Honestly, that’s the least important thing going on anyways. The bigger story is how Johns’ cardio will hold up. Even when he’s had full camps to prepare and can dictate a slower pace, he still tends to slow down late in fights. Now he had almost no prep time and will be facing an opponent who just pushed an insane pace for 15 straight minutes. Gibson is also the much taller and longer fighter, which could give Johns problems finding his range. Both guys come from wrestling backgrounds, so maybe we see that cancel eachother out and turn this into a pure striking battle. While we’ve seen Gibson look to tire some late in fights as well, he’s shown the ability to push through it and we give him the cardio advantage. He had also been preparing for this date for months, which is obviously a big advantage. Johns probably has the heavier hands, but Gibson throws way more volume and pushes a much higher pace. Gibson has also never been knocked out in 28 pro fights, but has been prone to getting submitted, while Johns has been finished twice in his last six outings. Johns hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018, but it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if he locked up a guillotine, just based on how prone Gibson has been to leaving his neck out there. However, we like Gibson’s chances of putting a pace on Johns that he can’t keep up with and then either finishing him in the fight or handing Johns the first decision loss of his career. We’ll say Gibson finishes Johns in round three.
Our favorite bet here is “Cody Gibson ITD” at +425.
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DFS Implications:
Johns has averaged just 71 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, failing to top 87 in any of those and only scoring 67, 55, and 64 points in his three decision wins. His two UFC finishes both ended in round three and only scored 87 and 81 points. While he has a wrestling background, he’s only landed four takedowns in his seven UFC fights and also averages just 3.51 SSL/min. Only once has he topped 48 significant strikes landed in a UFC fight, which was when he put up a career best 80 in a 2021 R3 knockout win. He has bad cardio and consistently slows down late in fights, which is especially concerning since he stepped into this matchup on short notice. He’s also coming off a PED suspension, hasn’t finished anybody since 2021, and won’t have his head coach in his corner for this fight. He’s going against an opponent who’s never been knocked out and who just showed the ability to push a crazy pace in his last fight. So Johns has more red flags than a Soviet parade and he’s a very risky play. Working in his favor, Gibson has been submitted four times in the past and the pace he sets should boost scoring on all fronts. So if Johns can find a finish before he gasses out, he very well could put up a career best score and at his reasonable price tag he doesn’t need a slate-breaking performance to end up in winning lineups. With that said, his next big score will be his first and he’s a very tough guy to trust. The odds imply Johns has a 56% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Gibson has gone just 1-4 in the UFC but will be looking to make the most of his second opportunity with the organization here. His lone UFC win came in a 38 second first round knockout back in 2014, which was good for 126 DraftKings points with the help of the Quick Win Bonus. However, he landed two first round finishes on TUF and then put up 164 significant strikes in his recent decision loss to Brad Katona, who has historically made for slower paced fights. Gibson’s combination of striking and wrestling give him multiple ways to score well and the pace he set in his last fight is what DFS dreams are made of. While we don’t expect him to land as many strikes here, he did say he wants to push the pace, which is the smartest game plan against a gasser like Johns. And at Gibson’s reasonable price tag, he doesn’t need to put up a massive score to crack tournament winning lineups. We like Gibson’s chances of pulling off the upset and a finish will be squarely in play if he can tire Johns out. The odds imply Gibson has a 44% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Ricardo Ramos
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Continuing to trade wins and losses since he moved up to 145 lb in 2019, Ramos will be looking to bounce back from a first round submission loss to Charles Jourdain. Ramos was determined to wrestle in that matchup, which to his credit was the smart gameplan, but Jourdain was determined to lock up a guillotine. While that situation generally favors the guy on top, Jourdain was able to eventually lock it in and Ramos was unable to escape that final attempt. Prior to that, Ramos had a fight against Austin Lingo scrapped at weigh-ins after Ramos missed weight by an absurd eight pounds. He claimed he was dealing with an injury going into that fight and the medicine he was on made his weight go up. That was Ramos’ second straight fight to be canceled at the time and you have to go back to June 2022 to find his second most recent Octagon appearance, and last victory. That fight ended quickly when Ramos connected on one of his patented spinning elbows, becoming the first fighter to ever knock out Danny Chavez. Just before that, he lost a close decision to a tough Zubaira Tukhugov, after winning a wrestling-heavy decision over Bill Algeo. His two other UFC 145 lb fights were a R1 TKO loss to Lerone Murphy and a R1 submission win over a terrible Luiz Eduardo Garagorri in Ramos first fight at the new weight class. While Ramos is just 4-4 in his last eight fights, those losses came against tough opponents in Charles Jourdain, Zubaira Tukhugov, Lerone Murphy, and Said Nurmagomedov, while he’s been able to consistently capitalize on easier matchups. Ramos’s last nine fights all either ended in the first round (2-3) or went the distance (3-1). The last time we saw a later finish in one of his matches was in 2017 when he knocked out Aiemann Zahabi in the third round with a spinning back elbow.
Now 16-5 as a pro, Ramos has four wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. His fights generally either end in round one or go the distance, with 8 of his 11 career finishes and all four of his early losses ending in the first round. He fought his first five UFC fights at 135 lb (4-1), before moving up to 145 lb in 2019, where he’s since gone 3-3.
Overall, Ramos is a flashy striker and a dangerous grappler, but tends to slow down later on in fights. He’s a counter striker who loves to throw spinning elbows against aggressive opponents and he’s a BJJ black belt who will sporadically shoot for takedowns in bunches given the right matchup. In his 11 UFC fights, he landed 19 of his 32 takedown attempts (59.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 22 attempts (72.7% defense). He’s never landed more than 68 significant strikes in a fight and averages just 3.21 SSL/min, but his combination of striking and grappling has allowed him to win five of the six decisions he’s been to. After missing weight by 8 lb for his second most recent scheduled fight, obviously Ramos is a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Julian Erosa
14th UFC Fight (6-7)Erosa is 11 months removed from his second straight first round KO/TKO loss, although in fairness to him it was definitely a quick stoppage. It’s funny how when refs stop a fight too early for a TKO they just say sorry there’s nothing we can do, but if they stop a submission too fast it immediately gets reviewed and ruled a No Contest. Anyways, Erosa got dropped early in that match against Fernando Padilla and as Padilla looked to knock him down for a second time the ref jumped in, despite the fact that Erosa never went all the way down and popped right back up. It was looking bad for Erosa anyways and the ref probably just saved him some brain trauma, but it should have been allowed to continue for at least a few more seconds. Prior to that, Erosa got knocked out in round one by Alex Caceres, who previously hadn’t knocked anybody out since 2010, so obviously that’s not a great look. However, Erosa was able to rattle off three straight wins leading up to his recent struggles, with a pair of decision wins over Hakeem Dawodu and Steven Peterson, and a third round submission victory over Charles Jourdain. Dawodu notably missed weight for the first time in his career, by 3.5 lb no less, and never really showed up in the fight. Based on the weight miss and his performance, there’s a decent chance Dawodu was injured coming into that fight and he looked nothing like his normal self. Just before that, Peterson also missed weight by 3 lb and would go on to lose one more time and then retire. Erosa’s only other loss in his last nine fights came against Seung Woo Choi in another first round knockout, and Erosa has been knocked out in his last four losses. While two of his last four fights went the distance, eight of his last 10 ended early (4-4). Erosa originally made his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in 2015, but after starting 1-1 he was released in 2016. He then worked his way back into the organization through DWCS in 2018, but lost three straight fights and was released again in 2019. However, after winning one fight on the regional scene, the UFC brought Erosa back to fight Sean Woodson on short notice and Erosa landed a third round submission win and has now gone 5-3 in his third stint with the UFC.
Now 28-11 as a pro, Erosa has 11 wins by KO/TKO, 12 submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out seven times and has four decision losses. Five of his KO losses occurred in round one, while one ended in round two and the other round three. On the flipside, he only has one knockout win since 2018 and three of his last four finishes ended in submissions, with two of those coming in the third round of Catchweight fights he took on short notice. Erosa is basically the 150 lb Catchweight king, as he’s gone 5-0 in his career in Catchweight fights, with all five wins coming early. He would be the perfect candidate for a 150 lb division as he’s competed extensively at both 145 lb and 155 lb. In his 13 UFC fights, he’s gone 3-6 at 145 lb, 2-0 at 150 lb, and 1-1 at 155 lb.
Overall, Erosa is a fearless brawler who also possesses dangerous submission skills, but has shown a suspect chin. He’s been especially prone to getting knocked out at 145 lb, where this fight will be, and the weight cut down to 145 lb can’t be getting any easier as the 6’1” Erosa is now 34 years old. He averages 6.22 SSL/min and 6.35 SSA/min and he landed 92 or more significant strikes in each of his last three fights that made it out of the first round. He’s also landed two or more takedowns in each of his last four fights to make it out of the first round, while none of his last eight opponents got him down. In his eight fights since returning to the UFC in 2020, Erosa has landed 10 takedowns on 23 attempts (43.5% accuracy), while stuffing both of the attempts against him.
Fight Prediction:
Erosa will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. Ramos is six years younger than the 34-year-old Erosa.
It’s always exciting when Erosa fights, at least for as long as it lasts. Neither of his last two bouts made it past the 3:04 mark in round one and he continues to be prone to getting knocked out. Even fighters like Alex Caceres, who had gone 12 years without knocking anybody out, have been able to get the job done against Erosa, making it impossible to trust his chin regardless of the matchup. Now he’s facing a dangerous finisher in Ramos and there’s a good chance Erosa suffers his third straight R1 KO loss. However, we have seen Ramos slow down some later in fights, so if Erosa can simply survive early, maybe he can find late success. He has a knack for locking up late submissions, and despite being a BJJ black belt, Ramos just got submitted by Charles Jourdain. So we’re not eliminating the possibility of Erosa bouncing back here, but we will be taking Ramos by first round knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Ricardo Ramos KO” at +260.
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DFS Implications:
Ramos averaged just 70 DraftKings points in his first four UFC wins, failing to even top 68 points in three of those. However, all four of those matches notably took place at 135 lb and since moving up to 145 lb in 2019 he’s averaged 102 DraftKings points in his last three victories. Two of those wins ended in first round finishes, which returned scores of 102 and 106 points respectively, and the other came in a wrestling-heavy decision, where Ramos landed eight takedowns and scored 98 DraftKings points. He’s struggled to string wins together since moving up in weight, trading wins and losses for all six of his 145 lb fights. The field typically struggles with timing in those situations and in Ramos’ recent loss he was 27% owned, after coming in at just 10% owned in his last win. Now he gets a very favorable matchup against an opponent in Erosa who has seven knockout losses and didn’t survive the first round in either of his last two fights. Erosa also averages 6.35 SSA/min, so a rare late round finish for Ramos would still have the potential to score decently, especially if he can tack on a few takedowns. According to the odds, Ramos has the second highest chance on the slate of landing a first round finish and he couldn’t ask for a much better matchup. The odds imply Ramos has a 59% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Erosa has averaged 105 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with 97 or more points in his last five victories. He’s an aggressive brawler, who averages 6.22 SSL/min and 6.35 SSA/min, and he’s also landed at least two takedowns in his last four fights that have made it out of the first round. However, his chin has been bad for years and appears to be getting worse if anything in his thirties. He’s been knocked out seven times and his last two fights both ended in R1 KO/TKOs. Now he hasn’t competed in almost a year and who knows if his timing will be off, which would be a disaster for someone who could get knocked out at any misstep. Erosa has defied the odds at numerous points in his career and you always want to have exposure to both sides of his fights, but he hasn’t finished anybody since 2021 and it’s fair to wonder if he’s on the way out. Working in Erosa’s favor, Ramos has been finished in four of his five career losses and tends to slow down after the first round. So Erosa definitely has upside, but he also has literally a zero point floor. The odds imply Erosa has a 41% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Trey Ogden
5th UFC Fight (1-2, NC)Ogden was absolutely robbed of a submission win in his last fight, as it was deemed the referee, Mike Beltran, stopped the fight prematurely after Ogden locked up a choke in the third round against Nikolas Motta, who appeared just seconds away from going out. Even if Motta had somehow survived, he was about to lose a 30-27 decision, as Ogden had dominated the fight and finished ahead 58-14 in significant strikes and 96-16 in total strikes, while also landing three takedowns with four and a half minutes of control time. Instead, it went down as a No Contest and Ogden didn’t get a win of any kind, despite putting on a career performance as he fought out the final fight on his contract. The UFC at least did the right thing and gave him a new contract after the fight. Prior to that No Contest, Ogden lost a decision to a one-dimensional striker in Ignacio Bahamondes. Ogden looked like he was sleep walking through that fight after stepping in on short notice and somehow only attempted a single failed takedown despite holding a massive grappling advantage. In fairness to Ogden, he had just cut weight two weeks prior, only to have the fight canceled during weigh-ins after his opponent (Manuel Torres) dropped out. Bahamondes easily outlanded Ogden 99-42 in striking, winning an uneventful decision. Looking back one fight further, Ogden pulled off a major upset decision win where he entered as a +310 underdog, but outpointed his way to victory against a debuting Daniel Zellhuber. Ogden at least tried to get that fight to the ground, although wasn’t very successful as he only landed one of his nine attempts, with just 38 seconds of total control time. Just before that, Ogden lost a split decision to Jordan Leavitt in his short notice UFC debut, after submitting three straight opponents in the first two rounds on the regional scene.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Ogden has 11 submission wins and five decision victories. He’s also been submitted three times himself and has three decision losses. Two of his three submission losses were by R1 guillotine against a suspect Thomas Gifford, who went 0-2 in the UFC. His other submission loss was a 2019 R1 rear-naked choke. No one has ever been knocked out in any of his fights. Five of Ogden’s last seven finishes occurred in the later rounds, with four ending in round two. While all three of his UFC fights (not counting his recent No Contest) went the distance, 9 of his previous 11 matches ended early.
Overall, the 34-year-old Ogden has shown some improvements to his striking, but still doesn't look very dangerous on the feet and has been content with point fighting lately. That was never his style on the regional scene, but maybe the pressure of opening up his own gym and being the head coach that everyone looks up to resulted in him playing it safe. He had been training at Glory MMA with James Krause for his entire career, and also was the jiu-jitsu coach there, so obviously there were a lot of changes for him when Glory got shut down. In his four UFC fights, Ogden landed just 5 of his 30 takedown attempts (16.7% accuracy), while he defended all three of the attempts against him. He’s a BJJ black belt and should have had his first submission win in the UFC in his last fight before Mike Beltran stole that from him. Going into that fight, Ogden said he wanted to be more aggressive moving forward. While he did dial things up some, he was still looking for a clean fight where he could jab from the outside and then shoot for takedowns when they presented themselves. He’s only averaging 3.64 SSL/min and 4.02 SSA/min and has yet to land more than 71 significant strikes in a fight.
Kurt Holobaugh
6th UFC Fight (1-4)Holobaugh recently won The Ultimate Fighter in a second round submission over Austin Hubbard, who had won the first round on all three scorecards, after taking Holobaugh down twice and controlling him for two minutes, while also outstriking him. Following a failed takedown attempt from Hubbard in round two, Holobaugh took his back and progressed through a series of submission attempts, from rear-naked choke, to armbar, to triangle choke, before Hubbard finally tapped. Leading up to that finish, Holobaugh landed two more second round finishes in the opening two rounds of the show, although both of those results go down as exhibition matches and don’t show up on his official pro record. Before going on TUF in early 2023, Holobaugh didn’t compete at all in 2022 or the second half of 2021. It sounded like he was contemplating retirement and was having a tough time getting fights on the regional scene. This will actually be his third stint with the UFC. Holobaugh originally made his UFC debut in 2013 at 145 lb after Strikeforce merged with the UFC, but lost a decision and was immediately released. After going 8-2 in his next 10 fights on the regional scene, Holobaugh took part in the inaugural episode of DWCS in 2017, where he landed a first round knockout in a 145 lb fight against Matt Bessette. However, the results were overturned to a No Contest and Holobaugh was suspended for nine months when it was discovered that Holobaugh used an unauthorized IV to rehydrate after weigh-ins. After serving his suspension, the UFC brought Holobaugh back on to face a debuting Raoni Barcelos, who knocked Holobaugh out in the third round of an action-packed fight. Holobaugh compounded the loss when he got submitted by Shane Burgos in the first round of his next fight, although Holobaugh dropped Burgos before getting armbarred as he went in for the kill on the mat. Holobaugh then moved up to 155 lb in 2019 in a decision loss to Thiago Moises that resulted in Holobaugh getting released for the second time. He bounced back with a pair of knockout wins on the regional scene in 2020 and 2021, both at 155 lb, but then took a year and a half off before going on TUF (also at 155 lb) in early 2023. He was losing his first fight on the show before landing a submission in the second round to steal victory from the jaws of defeat. He then took part in a wild brawl against Jason Knight, controlling the center of the Octagon and pushing Knight back until he eventually knocked him out in the second round to secure a spot in the finals.
Now 20-7 as a pro (not counting his two “exhibition” matches on TUF), Holobaugh has seven wins by KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (R3 2018), submitted once (R1 2018), and has five decision losses. Nine of his last 10 official pro fights ended early, as did each of his first two fights on TUF, which go down as exhibition matches and don’t show up on his pro record. Holobaugh has only been to one decision since 2016, which was his 2019 loss to Moises in Holobaugh’s UFC Lightweight debut. Holobaugh has gone back and forth between 145 lb and 155 lb throughout his career, with three of his four UFC losses coming at 145 lb, but he’s stayed at 155 lb since 2019.
Overall, Holobaugh is an aggressive 37-year-old striker who’s trying to make one last UFC run before hanging it up. He’s a BJJ black belt and is dangerous on the mat both on his back or from top position. However, he’s not a great wrestler and he’s been controlled on the mat for extended periods of time at multiple points in his career. Between his five UFC fights and his DWCS match, Holobaugh landed 4 of his 11 takedown attempts (36.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 10 of their 20 attempts (50% defense). He also got taken down three times on six attempts and controlled for nearly 12 minutes in his lone Strikeforce match, which the UFC includes in his official stats. While his career striking numbers don’t jump off the page at 4.89 SSL/min and 4.44 SSA/min, when he gets an opponent who’s willing to stand and trade with him, we get unadulterated violence. His overall striking numbers are dragged down by the time he’s spent being controlled by his opponents. While Holobaugh still trains at his small home gym, he did spend some time during this camp cross training at Kill Cliff FC.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’11” but Ogden will have a 2” reach advantage and is three years younger than Holobaugh.
There are a lot of similarities between these two, as they both run small gyms in the middle of nowhere, they’re both in their mid-to-late thirties, and they’re both BJJ black belts who are dangerous on the mat. And on the regional scene, they were also both very aggressive. While that carried into the UFC for Holobaugh, it did not for Ogden, who has evolved into a much more patient and calculated fighter. Holobaugh is still looking for a slobberknocker everytime they lock him in the cage, so it will be interesting to see if he can force Ogden to oblige. We expect Holobaugh to be the one pushing forward and forcing the action, and he doesn’t even seem to mind when he gets taken down, as he’s dangerous off his back. Ogden has also never knocked anybody out, and we don’t expect Holobaugh to show him much respect on the feet. While that’s not a good minute-winning strategy for Holobaugh, it will greatly increase the odds of this ending in a finish. Fourteen of Ogden’s 22 pro fights ended in submissions (11-3), but zero ended in knockouts. While that’s not completely predictive of what will happen here, it is a sign that this is more likely to end via submission than knockout. Both guys are capable of finishing the other, and if it does go the distance Ogden is the more likely of the two to get his hand raised, but we like Holobaugh to finish Ogden, and we’ll say he locks up another submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Kurt Holobaugh ITD” at +240.
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DFS Implications:
Ogden has been a tail of two fighters over the course of his career. Prior to joining the UFC, he was an aggressive grappler who was constantly hunting for submissions and finishing opponents on the mat, with 11 career submission wins under his belt. However, since joining the UFC, he’s really dialed things back. He did say leading up to his last fight that he intended on reverting back to his more exciting style that got him to the UFC, and we saw somewhat of a more aggressive approach from him. He only averaged 3.42 SSL/min in his first three UFC fights, while that rose to 4.40 SSL/min in that last fight. He also attempted 16 takedowns in that last fight, although only landed three of them. He locked up a submission in the third round, but Mike “Fucking Loud Angry Idiot With a Stupid Beard” Beltran had to stop the fight prematurely and instead of going down as a submission they overruled it to a No Contest. Not that we’re still bitter or anything. Ogden would have scored 99 DraftKings points and 108 points on FanDuel had the submission held up, but instead scored just 54 points after the third round bonus was stripped from him. Ogden’s only other UFC win ended in a decision and scored just 65 points, but if he continues to push the pace then that past score will not be indicative of his future potential. And now he gets a great matchup for DFS production against the ultra aggressive Kurt Holobaugh, who’s constantly marching forward and forcing the action. When you factor in the smaller cage at the Apex, it will be harder for Ogden not to get sucked into a high-volume fight. Holobaugh’s takedown defense is bad at just 50% and Ogden shot for 16 takedowns in his last fight, so he also has the potential to score well even without a finish through his wrestling. And while there’s a decent chance Ogden comes out on the wrong side of a finish, whoever wins here should have a high floor and ceiling combination. The odds imply Ogden has a 57% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Holobaugh only required three stints in the UFC to finally notch a win, but his fighting style is far more impressive than his UFC record indicates. He was only given one fight in his first crack at the UFC back in 2013 and lost a decision. Then he came back up through DWCS in 2017, but went through a murderers' row of opponents as he faced Raoni Barcelos, Shane Burgos, and Thiago Moises. He lost all three of those fights, although almost knocked out Burgos early in round one. He finally got a more favorable matchup against Austin Hubbard in the finale of The Ultimate Fighter and locked up a second round submission that was good for 101 DraftKings points and 122 points on FanDuel, despite the fact that he had no knockdown or takedowns and got controlled for a third of the fight. That just demonstrates his ability to rack up striking volume and score well even in less than ideal circumstances. He’s a BJJ black belt and dangerous from any position on the mat, even if his wrestling isn’t very good. And the stats don’t tell anywhere close to the full story on his striking volume potential, as he’ll happily throw down in a high-volume brawl. The only concern here is that Ogden has fought very conservatively in most of his UFC fights and only averages 3.64 SSL/min and 4.02 SSA/min. However, Ogden has claimed he wants to take part in more exciting matches and we expect Holobaugh to push forward with zombie-like pressure. So if Ogden lives up to his word and/or Holobaugh can trap him against the cage, we should get action in this one. Holobaugh spends too much time on his back to win many decisions, but he has solid finishing upside and has only been to one decision since 2016, which was back in 2019. There’s still a chance Ogden finds a way to ruin this fight, so you don’t want to go all in on it, but given the upside and reasonable price of both fighters we definitely want to have a good amount of exposure to both sides. The odds imply Holobaugh has a 43% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Fernando Padilla
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Padilla recently had a three fight winning streak snapped in a close decision loss to Kyle Nelson, who outlanded Padilla 82-72 in significant strikes, while neither fighter landed a takedown. Nelson came in with a more tactical approach and didn’t want to engage in a firefight with Padilla. Prior to that, landed a R1 TKO in his UFC debut against a chinny Julian Erosa, although it was definitely a quick stoppage by the ref. Leading up to his April 2023 UFC debut, he hadn’t competed in nearly two years, but was actually signed by the organization in 2021 and was scheduled to face Sean Soriano that October, but visa issues forced him to withdraw and wait on the sidelines for another year and a half. While he only has two UFC fights under his belt, he faced a few current and former UFC fighters before joining the organization. His second most recent loss came in a 2019 decision against former UFC fighter Spike Carlyle and. Padilla also has a 2017 decision loss to Dani Ige and a first round submission win over Darrick Minner later that year. Thirteen of Padilla’s last 14 wins ended early, with the one exception being a 2021 split decision. Padilla’s last three finishes all ended in knockouts and prior to his recent first round finish he had seen the second round in seven straight fights.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Padilla has five wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and two decision victories. While he has nearly twice as many submissions as knockouts, he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and 7 of his 8 submission wins occurred in his first 10 pro fights. He’s never been finished in his career, with all five of his losses going the distance. He made his pro debut at 135 lb in 2015, but then immediately moved up to 145 lb and has even fought at 155 lb a few times, where he went 3-0 with three finishes. His last four matches were at 145 lb after he took on Spike Carlyle at a 150 lb Catchweight just before that.
Overall, Padilla is an aggressive fighter who’s constantly marching forward and looking to engage on the feet, while also being dangerous off his back. He’s from Mexico but trains at Team Oyama with several past and current UFC fighters, including Ricky Simon. He’s a 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu brown belt and has very flexible hips that allow him to get creative with his grappling, although we rarely see him attempt any takedowns and he mostly uses his grappling defensively. He throws sharp knees and elbows out of the clinch and has really good size for the 145 lb division at 6’1” with a 76” reach. His aggressiveness does leave him there to be hit, but his chin has held up thus far in his career and he looks like an entertaining fighter to watch with plenty of years ahead of him to continue cleaning some things up.
Luis Pajuelo
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Pajuelo will be making his UFC debut following a R1 TKO win on DWCS against a terrible opponent, who was cornered by his parents, as his Mom was a black belt in the “Chuck Norris Fighting System.” Pajuelo comes into the UFC on a five fight winning streak, with four of those ending in knockouts. Just keep in mind, he had been competing on the Argentinian regional scene against an extremely low level of competition. The one time he fought with a legitimate promotion was when he took a fight with Shooto Brazil in 2021 and proceeded to suffer his first career loss in a decision against a 2-0 opponent.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Pajuelo has seven KO/TKO wins and one decision victory. All of his finishes should be taken with a massive grain of salt based on the low level of competition he had been facing.
Overall, Pajuelo is a Peruvian boxer who pushes a crazy pace, but offers practically nothing when it comes to wrestling or defense. He gets taken down in basically all of his fights and offers nothing on the mat. We also see crazy striking totals being put up by both him and his opponents in all of his matches and he’s a pure brawler who has made a career out of beating up low level fighters on the South American regional scene. He makes for fun fights, but look for him to get dominated both on the feet and the mat at the UFC level by anyone that knows what they’re doing.
Fight Prediction:
Padilla will have a 3” height advantage and 7” reach advantage, while also being two years younger than the 29-year-old Pajuelo.
This is a prime bounce back spot for Padilla and this sets up as an all action brawl for as long as it lasts. Padilla is better than Pajuelo everywhere, in addition to being significantly taller and longer. He can beat him on the outside, the inside, the feet, the mat, really anywhere this fight could go. Pajuelo likes to close the range and make fights dirty from the inside, but that will be problematic for him as Padilla throws nasty elbows and knees out of the clinch and wants nothing more than to engage in a firefight. And while we rarely see Padilla look for many takedowns, he’s also a dangerous grappler if the fight somehow hits the mats. While Pajuelo has never been finished in his career, we’d be surprised to see him survive for the full 15 minutes here and we like Padilla to finish him, most likely by knockout, and we’ll say it happens in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Fernando Padilla ML” at -163.
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DFS Implications:
Padilla is an aggressive striker and a dangerous submission threat who’s coming off a decision loss against an opponent who didn’t want to engage in a brawl. That ruined the fight for everybody, but on the bright side, that disappointing loss could lower Padilla’s ownership some in this upcoming dream matchup against a fellow aggressive striker. Padilla couldn’t ask for a better matchup here and Pajuelo is an aggressive boxer with terrible defense and no wrestling ability. That will open up all sorts of opportunities for Padilla to rack up striking volume and find a finish. Thirteen of Padilla’s last 14 wins ended early, including a quick R1 TKO victory in his UFC debut that was good for 108 DraftKings points. And while he’s somewhat expensive, he’s in that high 8K range where he doesn’t necessarily have to outscore all of the 9K options to still end up in winning lineups. With that said, with the amount of striking volume we’re expecting to see, he also has the very real potential to be the highest scorer on the slate if he can land a well timed finish. The odds imply Padilla has a 60% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Pajuelo is an aggressive boxer who always makes for exciting fights and will consistently provide a high scoring ceiling for both sides of his fights. While we’re extremely low on his actual talent level, it’s his pace and complete disregard for defense that’s appealing. All of his fights are high-volume brawls and we don’t see that changing anytime soon. He has no ability to wrestle and rarely takes a backwards step and will now be facing an aggressive opponent who will gladly meet him in the middle and throw down in a firefight. And while Padilla is a dangerous submission threat, he rarely looks wrestle either so the striking volume here could be insane. Neither guy has ever been finished, but that means a lot more for Padilla, as he’s the only one that’s faced legitimate competition. Pajuelo’s record is a product of the level of competition he’s been facing, and while maybe he is really durable, his chin has never been tested by a UFC allibar fighter. We’re expecting Padilla to knock Pajuelo out, but if Pajuelo somehow pulls off the upset, he’ll have a good shot at scoring enough even in a decision to end up in winning tournament lineups. The odds imply Pajuelo has a 40% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Billy Quarantillo
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Quarantillo was originally set to face Gabriel Miranda here, but Miranda dropped out and Zala was announced as the replacement 12 days out.
Coming off a close decision win over Damon Jackson, Quarantillo has traded wins and losses for seven straight fights, and while he’s never lost two in a row in his career, he also hasn’t put two wins together since 2020. In his last fight, he lost the first round on all three scorecards, but then Jackson gassed out in round two and Quarantillo was able to win each of the later rounds. Jackson was only able to land 3 of his 13 takedown attempts in the fight, while Quarantillo never even attempted a takedown but finished ahead in significant strikes 100-67. Prior to that win, Quarantillo got knocked out in the first round by Edson Barboza, after outlasting Alexander Hernandez and finishing him in a second round TKO. Hernandez was notably dropping down to 145 lb for the first time in the UFC. Quarantillo lost the first round on all three scorecards in that fight, before Hernandez gassed out in round two and Quarantillo took over and finished him late in the round. Looking back one fight further, Quarantillo lost an insanely high-volume decision to Shane Burgos, where Burgos finished ahead 193-164 in significant strikes and 232-196 in total strikes, while Quarantillo failed to land any of his 14 takedown attempts. Burgos did a great job of chewing up Quarantillo’s lead leg, landing 28 leg strikes in the match, which left Quarantillo extremely compromised late in the fight. That came after Quarantillo outgrappled a one-dimensional striker in Gabriel Benitez, following a decision loss to Gavin Tucker, who impressively outworked Quarantillo. Quarantillo originally tried to crack the UFC roster through The Ultimate Fighter in 2015, but lost a decision in his second fight on the show and was forced to return to the regional scene, before going on DWCS in 2019 and finishing Kamuela Kirk in the third round.
Now 18-5 as a pro, Quarantillo has eight wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. Four of his five submission wins occurred in his first six pro fights and eight of his last nine finishes have come by KO/TKO. His only submission win since 2014 came in his 2019 UFC debut against a terrible Jacob Kilburn. His last six and 10 of his last 11 finishes have occurred in the later rounds. Looking at this entire career, he has three first round finishes, six in round two, and four in round three. While he’s never been submitted, he’s been knocked out twice in the first round and has three decision losses. Ten of his last 11 fights made it to the second round, with seven seeing round three, and four going the distance. Quarantillo started his career fighting between 150-160 lb and then went back and forth between Lightweight and Featherweight for a while, but has remained at 145 lb since 2019.
Overall, Quarantillo is a super uptempo fighter who does a great job of weaponizing his cardio. He’s generally looking to get fights to the ground, where he can attack opponents with relentless ground and pound and also look for an occasional submission, as he’s a BJJ black belt. He averages 7.71 SSL/min and 5.61 SSA/min, while also adding 5.7 TDL/15 min. Between his nine UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Quarantillo landed 10 takedowns on 43 attempts (23.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 17 of their 47 attempts (63.8% defense). He won all five of the UFC fights where he landed a takedown, while he failed to land any of his 19 attempts in his three UFC losses. While Quarantillo won’t blow anyone away with his striking or submission skills, his nonstop motor has been a cheat code in most of his fights, and the tendency for his opponents to gas out has resulted in a lot of late finishes for him. However, now he’ll face a fellow cardio machine in what will be an interesting matchup.
Youssef Zalal
8th UFC Fight (3-3-1)Making his triumphant return to the UFC, Zalal was originally signed to the organization in early 2020 and won decisions in each of his first three fights against a series of low-level opponents in Austin Lingo, Jordan Griffin, Peter Barrett. However, he then faced a huge step up in competition and lost three straight decisions to Ilia Topuria, Seung Woo Choi, and Sean Woodson. He followed that up with a draw against a short notice debuting opponent in Da'Mon Blackshear and was then cut following that August 2022 fight. He seemed to take the bad news in stride as he proceeded to rattle off three straight first round finishes on the Colorado regional scene. The first two of those ended in TKOs, while the last was a submission that came at the in the finals of the King of Sparta tournaments, where fighters have to compete in boxing, kickboxing, and MMA all in the same night. The boxing and kickboxing matches obviously don’t show up on Zalal’s MMA record, but for anyone that cares Zalal won a four round decision in his boxing match and then landed a second round TKO in his kickboxing match, with both of those fights being three minute rounds. For what it’s worth, the guy that Zalal beat in the finals was a kickboxer with zero pro MMA fight. Regardless, the UFC saw the success Zala was having and called him in to try out for the upcoming season of The Ultimate Fighter, but he was only selected to be an alternate on the show in case someone dropped out. However, shortly after getting that unfortunate news, they called him back and said they needed someone to fight Billy Quarantillo on short notice and Zalal immediately accepted to regain his spot on the roster.
Now 13-5-1 as a pro, Zalal has four wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. He’s never been finished, with all five of his losses going the distance. All of his finishes came on the regional scene, while all of his UFC fights have gone the distance. His last fourteen fights all either went the distance or ended in first round finishes. Zalal has spent almost his entire career at 145 lb, but did drop down to 135 lb for one fight in his draw against Blackshear and also had a fight up at 155 lb back in 2017.
Overall, Zalal’s elusive fighting style allows him to evade opponents at will, which has made it tough for anyone to land many strikes on him and he averages just 2.75 SSL/min and 1.75 SSA/min. He’s also been very durable and has great cardio, so good luck if you’re trying to finish him. In his seven UFC fights, he landed 15 takedowns on 48 attempts (31.3%), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 28 attempts (60.7% defense). The only opponent to get him down more than twice was Ilia Topuria, who landed 5 of his 9 attempts but gassed out in the third round for his efforts. Zalal also has eight official submission attempts in seven UFC fights, but failed to complete any of those. He trains at elevation with the Factory X team and his main training partner is Isaac Dulgarian, while he also gets a lot of work in with David Onama.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10”, but Zalal will have a 2” reach advantage and is eight years younger than the 35-year-old Quarantillo.
This is a great stylistic matchup between two cardio machines. Despite stepping in on short notice, we expect Zalal’s cardio to be fine and he had already been preparing to go on The Ultimate Fighter. Quarantillo’s biggest weapon is his gas tank and Zalal appears equipped to neutralize that with his own perpetual motion. Zalal does a better job of avoiding damage, as he averaged just 1.75 SSA/min to the 5.61 SSA/min of Quarantillo. Zalal will also have a slight reach advantage (72” vs. 70”), has been more accurate with his takedown attempts (31% vs. 23%), is eight years younger (27 vs. 35), and should come in with maximum motivation and a chip on shoulder after previously being released by the UFC. Whether or not that will be enough for him to land his first UFC finish remains to be seen, and a decision is far more likely, but this looks like a favorable stylistic matchup for him and we’ll pick him to pull off the upset, despite how little time he had to prepare.
Our favorite bet here is “Youssef Zalal Win & Over 1.5 Rounds” at +162.
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DFS Implications:
Quarantillo has averaged 113 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with four scores of 109 or more and three of at least 125. However, all of his big scores resulted from late finishes against opponents that melted under his relentless pressure. He “only” scored 85 and 87 points respectively in his two decision wins, with the latter of those coming in his most recent victory. Now he’ll be facing a fellow cardio machine who has exceptional movement and is hard to track down and hit, as Zalal averages just 1.75 SSA/min. Zalal is also really durable and has never finished in his career, despite going against Ilia Topuria earlier in his career—albeit in Topuria’s short notice UFC debut. Topuria is the only fighter to ever get Zalal down more than twice in a fight and also the only opponent to score more than 69 DraftKings points against him, but Topuria still only scored 78 DraftKings points in the wrestling-heavy decision win. Looking at Zalal’s three UFC losses as a whole, his opponents averaged just 69 DraftKings points and 65 points on FanDuel. Maybe we’ll see a more aggressive version of Zalal now that he’s already been cut once from the promotion, but historically it has been a disaster trying to play opponents against him. And with Zalal seemingly equipped to negate the cardio cheat code of Quarantillo, this looks like another spot we’ll be looking to avoid, especially given how popular Quarantillo has consistently been (33-50% owned on DraftKings in each of his last six fights). The odds imply Quarantillo has a 50% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Zalal is making his return to the UFC here, a year and a half after being cut from the promotion. He went 0-3-1 in his last four UFC appearances, after starting off his career with three straight decision wins against a much lower level of competition. He averaged 84 DraftKings points in those three victories, with scores of 95, 69, and 88. He only averages 2.75 SSL/min, which has left him reliant on finding wrestling success to score even remotely well. Working in his favor, Quarantillo was taken down multiple times by 5 of his last 10 opponents and also pushes a high pace that is generally conducive to DFS success. In Quarantillo’s three UFC losses, his opponents averaged 116 DraftKings points and 129 points on FanDuel, despite two of those going the distance. That’s certainly encouraging for Zalal’s upside and we expect him to come with a chip on his shoulder and to be more aggressive than he’s been in past fights. While it is somewhat concerning that he accepted this fight on short notice, he has been preparing to go on The Ultimate Fighter, trains at elevation, and is probably the last guy you would expect to gas out. And at his cheap price tag, Zalal doesn’t need to put up a huge score to sneak into winning lineups. The line has moved from Zalal being a +135 underdog on Monday to a straight pick’em as of Friday evening. That will drive up his ownership some, especially in smaller contests, and makes him a great low-risk play. The odds imply Zalal has a 50% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Payton Talbott
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Fresh off a third round submission win in his recent UFC debut against Nick Aguirre, Talbott remains undefeated in his brief pro career. However, we did see him face some early adversity in that last fight, as he got taken down early and controlled for the entire first round, with Aguirre fishing for a rear-naked choke after taking Talbott’s back. However, Talbott calmly fought off the submission and outlasted Aguirre, before locking up a rear-naked choke of his own early in round three. Aguirre only landed two of his 10 takedowns in the low-volume, wrestling-heavy fight, while Talbott finished ahead 28-5 in significant strikes.Prior to locking up the first submission win of his career, Talbott made his first trip to the judges when he won a decision on DWCS. That came against Tracy Cortez’s older brother, Reyes Cortez Jr., who has now lost two decisions on the show. Cortez actually won the first round on all three scorecards, before Talbott took over in the later rounds and finished the fight ahead 145-76 in significant strikes and 163-78 in total strikes, while successfully defending all but one of Cortez’s 17 takedown attempts. Leading up to that decision win, Talbott landed five straight KO/TKO wins on the California regional scene.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Talbott has five KO/TKO wins, one submission, and one decision victory. All six of his finishes came in the later rounds, with three in round two and three in round three, and he’s never been in a fight that lasted less than eight minutes.
Overall, Talbott is an offensively minded striker who likes to methodically push the pace and hunt for late finishes. While he did wrestle in high school and also just secured the first submission win of his career, his biggest area of weakness is his wrestling. His defensive striking is also a work in progress and he relies more on his reflexes and durability than his technique on the feet, as he keeps his hands low and his chin up. To his credit, he throws a ton of striking volume and has shown the ability to melt his opponents with pressure. Standing 5’10” with a 70” reach, he’s got good size at 135 lb and has also shown good cardio. He trains at a small gym, the Reno Academy of Combat, and doesn’t appear to have any UFC-level training partners, which is concerning for his growth in his areas of weakness. He’s got the physical tools required to be successful in the UFC, but if he wants to make a real run in the division he’ll need to get a little more serious with his fighting career and seek out high-level training outside of Reno to improve both his wrestling and his striking defense. He’s a 25-year-old skater kid from Reno who never left his hometown and still parties with friends, goes to Burning Man during training camps, and hasn’t fully committed to his career. To some extent, who can blame him? He’s living the dream in his mid twenties and has yet to ever lose a fight, but eventually it will all catch up with him as he climbs the food chain in the UFC and faces legitimate wrestlers. Fortunately for him, he’ll face a fellow striker here.
Cameron Saaiman
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Saaiman dropped a close decision to the prospect killer, Christian Rodriguez, who notably missed weight by four pounds and has since moved up to 145 lb. Rodriguez was able to take Saaiman down three times on six attempts and finished with three minutes of control time, two submission attempts, and a reversal, while stuffing all five of Saaiman’s attempts and finishing ahead 83-73 in significant strikes. That was the first real test of Saaiman’s career, after facing a trio of lower level opponents in his first three UFC appearances. His last win came in a first round ground and pound TKO against a terrible Terrence Mitchell, who was making his UFC debut on relatively short notice and has since been cut after going 0-2 with two first round losses. Prior to that, Saaiman won a majority decision over Mana Martinez, who was cut following the loss after going 2-2 in the UFC in four decisions. Saaiman dominated the fight but was deducted a point in the first round after he landed back-to-back low blows. He nearly lost another point in round three for an eye poke and fouls have been a real issue for him in his UFC career so far. Before defeating Martinez, Saaiman landed a really blatant illegal knee in his UFC debut that would have resulted in a DQ if his opponent hadn’t agreed to continue fighting after explaining to Chris Tognoni that he in fact was “not a bitch.” Saaiman ironically then went on to finish Steven Koslow with a series of legal knees in the third round of that fight and Koslow hasn’t competed since. Saaiman landed another third round knockout just before that on DWCS, which came against another bad opponent who was quickly fading. Saaiman has only required the judges twice in his short career—a five-round EFC title fight win just before he went on DWCS and his win over Martinez.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Saaiman has six KO/TKO wins, one submission, and two decision victories. The only loss of his career also went the distance and five of his last six fights made it to the third round, with three of those going the distance.
Overall, Saaiman is a young 23-year-old South African former K-1 kickboxing champion, who’s been training with Dricus Du Plessis since he was a young teenager. Saaiman only turned pro in MMA in December 2019 and is still developing both physically and technically, but he throws good, snappy kicks and has decent hands. He doesn’t have a very imposing frame but seems to make the most of what he’s got, and will mix in occasional takedowns and look for both ground and pound and submissions on the mat. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS match, Saaiman landed 4 of his 11 takedown attempts (36.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 10 of their 18 attempts (44.4% defense). Saaiman also loves looking for guillotine chokes and does a good job of using them to reverse positions and gain top position on the ground. He has great cardio, which has allowed him to take over later in matches, especially when his opponents have slowed down. Given his age, he should be making improvements between every fight and he’s definitely a kid to keep an eye on. His first three UFC fights were all at T-Mobile arena in front of huge crowds on PPV cards, alongside his mentor/teammate Du Plessis, however, his last fight and this next one were both booked at the Apex, with no Du Plessis on the card. In a recent interview, Saaiman talked about how he had ear and nose reconstruction following his last fight to fix a deviated septum and a burst ear drum that he had been dealing with for his last couple of matches.
Fight Prediction:
Talbott will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while being two years older than the 23-year-old Saaiman.
Both of these two are good strikers who have bad wrestling and we’re expecting to see a high-paced kickboxing match. Saaiman recently talked about how he thinks he can outpace Talbott and wants to keep the fight standing, while looking for a finish to keep it out of the judges’ hands. He said if anyone shoots for a takedown it will be Talbott, who hasn’t shot for more than a single takedown in any of his last five fights and is typically content with standing opponents back up, opposed to going to the ground with them. Talbott is the bigger of the two and appears a little stronger physically, but Saaiman is the more technical striker with more experience and better defense. They both have the ability to push a high pace for three rounds and this one has fight of the night written all over it. Neither of them have ever been finished and they’re both so durable that we expect this to go the distance, despite Saaiman’s desire to end it early. One concern with Saaiman is that he’s already been deducted multiple points in the UFC and fouls have been an ongoing issue for him. That creates the potential for a draw here, although that’s always an unlikely scenario that has only happened in 8 of the last 1,131 three-round UFC fights (0.71%). However, we are expecting a close decision that could go either way, so we’re saying there’s a chance. We can see arguments for each guy in this fight, and they’re both largely untested. However, we lean towards the more experienced striker in Saaiman, who has better technique and defense, along with a better team around him, while also taking his career much more seriously. It obviously doesn’t hurt that Saaiman can be had at plus money either. So Saaiman by decision is the pick, split decision is very in play, and if you want to get wild and bet the draw, this is as good a spot as any.
Our favorite bet here is “Talbott/Saaiman FGTD” at -165.
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DFS Implications:
Talbott is a high-volume striker who lacks defense when it comes to both striking and grappling. He comes from a tiny gym in Reno with no high-level training partners and he’s still very green with no system around him to help him grow as a fighter. However, he’s big, durable, and athletic, and will now be facing a fellow striker who is far less likely to expose Talbott’s weak wrestling. Talbott has shown the ability to put up huge striking totals and also has a history of landing late finishes. However, this looks like a tough spot for him to end things early, as he takes on a durable striker who’s never been finished. That likely leaves him reliant on putting up an insane striking total to score well and he’s a better fit for the FanDuel scoring system compared to DraftKings. With that said, at his reasonable price tag, it’s not impossible for him to land enough strikes to return value on both sites even without a finish. Both guys will have a solid volume-driven floor, and if we see any takedowns or knockdowns landed then the ceiling discussion will really open up, in what should be a wild fight. Talbott only scored 68 DraftKings points in his recent R3 submission win in his UFC debut, but that’s because he got controlled for the entire first round and then landed a terribly timed early third round finish. It’s best to just ignore that score when it comes to his scoring potential in this next matchup. The odds imply Talbott has a 57% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Saaiman has impressively averaged 113 DraftKings points in his three UFC fights, scoring 105 or more in all of them. Two of those ended in TKOs, scoring 116 and 118 points respectively, but even in his lone decision win he still totaled 105 points. Just keep in mind, his two finishes came against extremely low-level short notice debuting opponents, and his decision win was against a one-dimensional striker who got cut following the loss, so Saaiman has been the beneficiary of very favorable matchups. When he finally faced a step up in competition in his last fight, he suffered his first career defeat and only scored 35 points in the decision loss. Saaiman is primarily a striker, but will mix in occasional takedown attempts and also likes to look for guillotines when opportunities present themselves. One weakness has been his subpar 41% takedown defense, which creates the potential for him to get controlled on the mat for periods of time, but now he’ll face a fellow striker who doesn’t like to spend much time on the ground. That should result in a high-volume striking battle where the winner will have a high floor and decent ceiling even without a finish. And if we do get a finish, we could see a really huge score, although we’re expecting this to hit the scorecards, as neither of them have ever been finished and they both look very durable. Similar to in this fight, Saaiman was a slight underdog in his last match and ended up being extremely popular at 45% owned on DraftKings, albeit on a smaller 11 fight card. We should see his ownership come down some following that loss, but his earlier scoring success will prevent him from going overlooked, which slightly lowers his tournament appeal. Saaiman has also been incredibly prone to committing fouls, whether it be illegal knees, low blows, or eye pokes, and he’s been deducted a point in two of his four UFC fights. That creates a slight chance for a disastrous draw for DFS, although less than 1% of UFC fights end in draws and you don’t want to factor that in too much. The odds imply Saaiman has a 43% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Edmen Shahbazyan
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Shahbazyan is now 1-4 in his last five fights and is coming off a third round TKO loss against Anthony Hernandez in a fight where Shahbazyan predictably gassed out after round one and then got mauled for the rest of the match. Prior to that, Shahbazyan secured his only win since 2019 in a late second round TKO against Dalcha Lungiambula, who just like Shahbazyan, has terrible cardio and came into that fight on a three-fight losing streak. Neither guy pushed the pace in the low-volume fight, with Shahbazyan finishing ahead 54-23 in significant strikes in a fight that lasted just under 10 minutes. Prior to that win, Shahbazyan moved to Xtreme Couture, after spending the first part of his career at Glendale Fighting Club. Before making the move, Shahbazyan suffered a R2 TKO loss to Nassourdine Imavov, a decision loss to Jack Hermansson, and a R3 TKO loss to Derek Brunson. All three of those losses came on the mat and Shahbazyan has really struggled with his ground game. Leading up to the string of losses, Shahbazyan started his UFC career with a decision win over Darren Stewart followed by three straight first round wins and seven of his last eight fights ended early.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Shahbazyan has 10 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and one decision victory. The first 10 finishes of his career ended in round one, while his most recent ended in round two. He has three late-round ground and pound TKO losses and one decision defeat, with all of those losses coming in his last five fights. Ten of his first 11 pro fights ended in round one, but his last five have all made it to the later rounds, with three seeing round three, and one going the distance.
Overall, Shahbazyan is a Shotokan Karate black belt and a powerful striker who’s dangerous early on in fights, but tends to gas out later on in matches. He’s really struggled on the mat, and it doesn’t seem like a whole lot has changed with him since switching camps in 2022. Between his nine UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Shahbazyan landed 11 takedowns on 28 attempts (39.3% accuracy). However, after going 8 for 21 in his UFC debut, he’s gone just 3 for 7 on his attempts in his last eight fights, so his numbers are skewed from one outlier performance. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down 14 times on 38 attempts (63.2% defense). He’s still just 26 years old so he theoretically has plenty of time to improve, but unless he can improve his cardio he’ll never get very far. He’s getting a big step down in competition here, so we’ll see if Shahbazyan can get back on track.
AJ Dobson
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Dobson is coming off his first UFC victory in an uneventful decision over Tafon Nchukwi, who was attempting to cut back down from 205 lb to 185 lb, but missed weight by 3.5 lb. They spent most of the fight trading kicks, but Dobson caught a couple of those and used them to spill Nchukwi to the mat, where Dobson then assumed top position, but did nothing with it. Prior to that, Dobson lost a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights, in a striking-heavy decision against a one-dimensional striker in Armen Petrosyan and a wrestling-heavy decision against a one-dimensional wrestler in Jacob Malkoun. Dobson showed a low fight IQ in the loss to Petrosyan as he failed to push his grappling advantage against the one-dimensional kickboxer. Leading up to those two losses, Dobson landed a first round submission win on DWCS to punch his ticket to the big show. That was a far more eventful fight than any of Dobson’s UFC matches, but it’s beginning to look like a mirage at this point.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Dobson has three wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. All five of his finishes occurred in round one, with three ending in 60 seconds or less. He’s never been finished himself and both of his career losses went the distance. He’s only been past the first round four times in his career, with all of those fights going the distance (2-2). He’s fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb in the past, but it appears he will be sticking at 185 lb for the time being.
Overall, Dobson came into the UFC as an aggressive brawler withs violent striking, but after getting smothered on the mat in his UFC debut, he’s looked far more tentative in his last two fights. All of his finishes were against a much lower level of competition on the regional scene and we’ve basically given up hope on him at this stage in his UFC career. He hasn’t looked at all dangerous in the UFC and has been far too tentative. He’s been content with fighting to low-volume decisions and not taking any risks and will now likely be fighting for his job as he sits on a 1-2 record. He’s just a BJJ purple belt and hasn’t looked like much of a threat on the mat in the UFC, but does have a couple of rear-naked chokes on his record. His father was also a fighter and Dobson played college football for a year before dropping out to pursue a career in MMA. He’s clearly very athletic, but just very green when it comes to fighting and seems to be trying to learn on the job. Between his DWCS appearance and his three UFC fights, Dobson landed 6 of his 8 takedown attempts (75% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 17 attempts (64.7% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Shahbazyan will have a 1” height advantage, but Dobson will have a 1” reach advantage. Shahbazyan is six years younger than the 32-year-old Dobson.
This is sort of a weird matchup between two fighters who are each desperate for a win. Both guys have a history of landing first round finishes earlier in their careers, but they’ve each looked pretty terrible lately. Shahbazyan has one hard round of cardio in him or two soft rounds, and relies on staying off his back and landing early finishes to win fights. Meanwhile, Dobson has regressed from an exciting finisher into a boring decision grinder and the only thing he’s looked good at lately is ruining fights. He’s less likely to push a pace to really wear on Shahbazyan’s gas tank, or put him on his back where he’s struggled the most. That theoretically maximizes Shahbazyan’s window for finding a finish, although Dobson has also never been finished before. We’ll see how hard Shahbazyan pushes, but we’re kind of expecting a slower paced striking battle with a few takedown attempts potentially mixed in. Dobson has better cardio, but Shahbazyan is the more dangerous finisher, so the fight will start in Shahbazyan’s court and should slowly shift the longer it lasts. Live betting Dobson makes some sense if you can get a good line, especially if Shahbazyan empties his gas tank in round one. If we do get a really slow paced striking battle, Shahbazyan will still be live for a later finish or possibly to even win a rare decision. Dobson has shown zero awareness, so we don’t trust him to effectively wrestle or intentionally push a pace that zaps Shahbazyan’s cardio. It would be peak Dobson if he operated at such a low pace that Shahbazyan was able to avoid gassing out and won a low-volume decision, but it’s impossible to trust either one of these two. Despite the fact that Shahbazyan has only been to two decisions in 16 pro fights, there’s a higher chance than normal that this one makes it to the scorecards just based on the way Dobson has been fighting lately. We wish we could bet against both guys here, and there’s a good chance this fight comes down to a close second round, with Shahbazyan winning round one and Dobson round three. The judges seem to place more weight on how rounds end than how they start, so we’ll give the slight advantage to Dobson, as Shahbazyan’s visuals could be looking pretty rough by the end of round two. Dobson by split decision will be the pick, but we couldn’t be much less confident in either of these two and this is just a bet against bad cardio.
Our favorite bet here is “AJ Dobson ML” at +170.
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DFS Implications:
Shahbazyan has averaged 108 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, but after a hot 4-0 start to his UFC career he’s now gone just 1-4 in his last five fights. He has terrible cardio and bad defensive wrestling, which has left him reliant on landing early finishes to win fights. Ten of his 11 career finishes ended in round one, but his most recent came in a low-volume second round TKO. Even in that fight where he was barely forced to work, Shahbazyan was still looking tired in round two, but finished a struggling Dalcha Lungiambula nonetheless, scoring 95 DraftKings points in the win. Shahbazyan was then finished by Anthony Hernandez in his last fight, but will now get a step down in competition. However, Dobson has never been finished in his career and has been fighting ultra cautiously lately, which lowers the chances of Shahbazyan finding the finish he needs to score well. While Shahbazyan only has one career finish beyond the first round anyways, at his expensive price tag it’s more than fair to call him a R1 finish or bust DFS play. The odds imply Shahbazyan has a 64% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Dobson has struggled to score well so far in the UFC, and after showing tons of finishing upside on the regional scene against a much lower level of competition, he’s fought to three straight lackluster decisions in the UFC (1-2). He’s coming off his only UFC win, where he scored 81 DraftKings points against Tafon Nchukwi, who was attempting to cut back down from 205 lb to 185 lb, but missed weight by 3.5 lb. Dobson only scored 41 points in his previous decision loss, despite landing three takedowns, and he’s yet to show much upside. He’s been far too patient and conservative with his approach, and while he’s clearly very athletic, he refuses to take many chances. He’s presumably fighting for his job here, so who knows if that will result in an even safer approach from him or if he’ll finally let loose in what could be his final opportunity. We lean towards the former, but if Shahbazyan completely gasses out again then Dobson could be looking at a golden opportunity for a late finish. The odds imply Dobson has a 36% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Karl Williams
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Williams had originally been scheduled to face Junior Tafa here, but the Tafa brothers ended up swapping opponents after Justin dropped out on weigh-in day five weeks ago and Junior stepped in.
Coming off a pair of decision wins in his first two UFC appearances, Williams added his name to the long list of fighters who have defeated Chase Sherman, who was then immediately cut for the THIRD time. Sherman went 2-5 in his first stint with the UFC, then 1-3 in his second, but was then immediately brought back to lose to Alexander Romanov, and ultimately went 1-3 in his last contract. So Sherman went just 4-11 overall in the UFC and beating him doesn’t mean much. And it’s concerning that Williams was only able to land 1 of his 10 takedown attempts against Sherman, who came into that fight with a 66% takedown defense and weighed in at 254 lb. Prior to beating Sherman, those two had actually been booked to fight five weeks earlier, but a minute after the card started they announced Sherman had dropped out. At the time, Williams had been stepping in on short notice for his training partner, Chris Barnett, so the extra month actually gave him time to prepare. Before that, Williams dominated on the mat in his UFC debut as he landed eight takedowns on 13 attempts, while also tacking on a knockdown. Just keep in mind, that came against a terrible Lukasz Brzeski, who’s 0-3 in the UFC now and had a win on DWCS overturned for a failed drug test. Brzeski is a smaller Heavyweight who just looks like an out of shape Light Heavyweight. And both guys looked exhausted late in that match, as things got sloppy down the stretch. Before making his debut, Williams won another wrestling-heavy decision, that time on DWCS, where Williams impressively moved up to Heavyweight on less than a week’s notice. In that fight, he dominated a former Penn St. D-1 All-American Heavyweight wrestler on the mat for three rounds, landing all three of his takedown attempts with almost 11 minutes of control time. Williams was 30 lb lighter than his opponent in that match as he checked in at 233 lb. After the fight, they asked Williams if he wanted to stay at Heavyweight or drop back down, and he said he could do either but would rather move back down. Despite what he said then, he made his debut at Heavyweight and it appears he’ll stay there for the foreseeable future, at least as long as he keeps on winning.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Williams has three wins by KO/TKO and six decision victories. His only career loss came in a 2021 R1 submission in his fourth pro fight. All three of his KO/TKO wins also occurred in round one, with two of those occurring in his first three pro matches. Five of his last six fights have ended in decision wins, with the one exception being a 2022 R1 TKO against a 9-8 opponent who came in on a five fight losing streak, with two of those losses occurring at 185 lb, and then never fought again after suffering his 6th straight loss. Williams made his pro debut at Heavyweight before dropping down to Light Heavyweight for his second fight. He remained at Light Heavyweight until his short notice DWCS appearance. He did miss weight trying to make Light Heavyweight in June 2022, so perhaps it wasn’t the easiest cut to make. It will be interesting to see if he considers moving back down to Light Heavyweight once he faces some adversity in the UFC.
Overall, Williams is still pretty new to MMA, and only turned pro in February 2021. He fought four times in 2021 and four more in 2022, so he’s no stranger to staying active. However, after fighting twice in the first half of 2023, he then had to undergo neck surgery following his win over Sherman. That forced him to the sidelines for the rest of the year, and during his time off he moved his camp to Las Vegas and is now training at Xtreme Couture and utilizing the UFC Performance Institute on a daily basis. He did say that after the surgery he’s now more confident with both his wrestling and striking, but we’ll let his performances do the talking. Williams largely relies on his wrestling to win fights, but he does have some power in his strikes and throws a dangerous lead left hook. However, it’s rare to see him put up big striking totals and he only averages 2.93 SSL/min and 1.80 SSA/min. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 12 of his 26 takedown attempts (46.2% accuracy), while also defending the only attempt against him. We’ve seen his wrestling pace exhaust both him and his opponents, and his cardio management is one area he needs to work on. Considering he spent most of his career at Light Heavyweight, it should come as no surprise that he’s a little undersized at Heavyweight, tipping the scale right around 240 lb in each of his last two fights, after weighing in at 233 lb for his DWCS match. He said he walks around at 250 lb normally these days, so we’re curious to see what he weighs in on Friday.
Justin Tafa
9th UFC Fight (4-3, NC)Tafa had been scheduled to fight Marcos Rogerio de Lima five weeks ago on February 17th, but dropped out during weigh-ins and his brother Junior stepped in to fill his place with zero time to prepare. It sounded like it was a knee injury that Tafa was dealing with, but the severity was unclear. Tafa hasn’t lost a fight since 2021, but has also been facing a really low level of competition in all of his fights since then. His most recent win came in an 82 second knockout against Austen Lane last September. Those two originally faced off in June, but the fight was stopped 29 seconds in for an eye poke and then got put back together three months later. Leading up to those two fights against Lane, Tafa knocked out Parker Porter in just 66 seconds, and Harry Hunsucler in 113 seconds. Just for context, Lane, Porter, and Hunsucker have 15 knockout losses between them and Hunsucker is probably the worst Heavyweight in UFC history. So all of those finishes came in very favorable matchups, while Tafa lost a pair of decisions to more durable opponents in Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe just before his recent string of finishes. Tafa’s only other finish in the UFC came against Juan Adams, who went 1-3 in the UFC with two TKO losses, and has five KO/TKO losses in his career. The only time Tafa has been finished in the UFC was in his 2019 debut, when he got knocked out in the first round by Yorgan De Castro, who was also debuting and then proceeded to lose his next three fights before being cut. Tafa has yet to face a legitimate opponent in the UFC and none of his first six opponents remain on the roster, while it’s just a matter of time before they get rid of Austen Lane. Before he joined the UFC, Tafa won his first three pro fights on the Australian regional scene, all in the first two rounds, before being brought into the big show very early in his career.
Now 7-3 as a pro, all seven of Tafa’s career wins have come by KO/TKO, with five ending in round one and two in round two. All four of his UFC knockout wins ended in under two minutes. He’s also been knocked out once himself in the first round and lost both of the decisions he’s been to. The only time he’s ever won a fight that lasted longer than five and a half minutes was in his 2017 pro debut when he landed a knockout at the 8:35 mark.
Overall, Tafa is your stereotypical Heavyweight kickboxer who’s mostly just looking to land heavy bombs on the feet. He averages 5.13 SSL/min and 5.93 SSA/min, although those numbers are also bolstered by the fact that we’ve seen very little control time in any of his matches. He did try to mix in some wrestling against Carlos Felipe, where he attempted two takedowns, but he failed to land either of those and he hasn’t attempted any other takedowns in the UFCs. He’s also only faced two attempts against him, successfully defending both of those. That makes it tougher to evaluate his wrestling, but if you go back and watch his three fights on the regional scene you can see him wrestle in the two of those matches that lasted longer than 30 seconds. In those two fights, he showed a willingness to attempt takedowns and some ability to survive and even reverse positions on the mat. While we won’t call him a good wrestler, he didn’t appear helpless on the ground and in his pro debut he reversed a position and then finished his opponent with ground and pound. In his third pro fight he survived off his back in round one and then landed a knockout early in round two. Both of those results are somewhat encouraging for his ability to compete against wrestlers in the UFC. While Tafa’s not especially tall at 6’0”, he’s pretty massive and actually missed weight by a pound against Harry Hunsucker, so clearly he’s cutting just to make the Heavyweight limit.
Fight Prediction:
Williams will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while Tafa is four years younger than the 34-year-old Williams.
This is largely a striker versus wrestler matchup, but Williams also has decent striking and Tafa showed some ability to wrestle before he joined the UFC. No one has landed a takedown in any of Tafa’s eight UFC fights, on very few attempts, which makes it tougher to evaluate the current state of his wrestling. We know his brother Junior has some of the worst wrestling in the UFC, which isn’t super encouraging since they train together all the time, but Justin did show some ability to compete on the mat before he joined the UFC. Tafa is also massive, as he cuts down to make the 266 lb limit, and we saw Williams struggle to land takedowns in his last fight against the 254 lb Chase Sherman. Even if Williams can get Tafa down, we’ve seen him struggle to properly manage his cardio and lifting that much weight around will just wear him down faster. And Williams hasn’t looked like a massive finishing threat, with five of his last six fights going the distance, so the potential for him to find some early wrestling success and then slow down in the later rounds is very real. While Tafa has shown the ability to go three hard rounds on the feet, we’ve never seen him extended into the third round when he’s been forced to wrestle, so it’s harder to know how his cardio would hold up in that scenario. Tafa is always live for an early knockout, but there’s a good chance that the winner here will be determined by who has the better gas tank. If Tafa can outlast Williams, a rare late round knockout could be in play for him, and it also wouldn’t be shocking to see him outland his way to the first decision victory of his career. We’d be more surprised to see Williams finish Tafa, leaving him with a narrower path to victory, as he’ll be more reliant on winning a decision to get his hand raised. One concern with Tafa is that he pulled out of a fight due to injury just five weeks ago, making it hard to know just how healthy he is. He’s also had a pathetically weak strength of schedule in the UFC and hasn’t had to defend much wrestling. So it seems like a volatile fight all around and it’s hard to be overly confident in either fighter. But given that Tafa can be had at plus money, has more finishing upside than Williams, and also more decision equity than he’s being given credit for, we’ll take the the dog shot here and say Tafa pulls off the upset.
Our favorite bet here is “Williams/Tafa FGTD” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Williams is a relentless wrestler who has shown the ability to put up outlandish takedown numbers when given the right matchup. He notched eight takedowns and a knockdown in his UFC debut, putting up an insane 130 DraftKings points and still 103 points on FanDuel. We’ve even seen him land 20+ takedowns in a fight on the regional scene. However, it’s important to keep in mind that he had been fighting at Light Heavyweight before he went on DWCS and his UFC debut was against an undersized Heavyweight. Williams has struggled to put up huge takedown numbers when facing larger Heavyweights who are tougher to toss around the Octagon. In his DWCS match, he was only able to land three takedowns against the 263 lb Jimmy Lawson, and only would have scored 87 DraftKings points and 52 points on FanDuel in the decision win. Then in his recent decision win over Chase Sherman (254 lb), Williams was only able to land 1 of his 10 takedown attempts, and only scored 71 DraftKings points and 68 points on FanDuel. Now he’s facing a massive Heavyweight in Justin Tafa, who cuts down to make the 266 lb and even missed weight once in the past. Being that large can be a double edged sword when it comes to wrestling, as it’s harder to get taken down, but also harder to get back up. That creates the potential for Williams to rack up control time if he can get Tafa down, but also lowers his chances of chain wrestling his way to a big takedown total. And considering Williams has gone the distance in five of his last six fights and hasn’t shown a ton of finishing upside, he’s heavily reliant on a big takedown total to return value as the second most expensive fighter on the card. There is a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding Tafa’s wrestling ability and current health, as zero takedowns have been landed in any of Tafa’s UFC fights on just two attempts against him, and he was too hurt to fight just five weeks ago. Both of those factors add to the volatility of this matchup, but we still don’t love this spot for Williams. The odds imply Williams has a 62% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Tafa has been a R1 KO or bust play throughout his career, with all four of his UFC wins ending in first round knockout. Those four finishes returned remarkably similar DraftKings scores of 105, 103, 104, and 104 points. All three of those knockouts occurred in the second minute of fights and he just missed the Quick Win Bonus in all of them. So he’s been flirting with a slate-breaking score, but hasn’t quite gotten it done yet. However, keep in mind his finishes have come against some of the worst guys on the roster and the four opponents he knocked out currently have 20 knockout losses between them. Tafa has only faced two durable opponents in the UFC (Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe), with both of those fights ending in decision losses. And it’s not like either of those two opponents were even good, they were just durable, and both of them have since been cut. Tafa has looked more dangerous in recent fights, but it’s hard to separate that from the low level of competition he’s been facing and we still need to see him knockout someone decent before we can fully trust his finishing ability in tougher matchups. Williams has never been knocked out in his career, although also spent most of that time competing at Light Heavyweight and is a little undersized at Heavyweight. Williams hasn’t faced any really dangerous finishes at Heavyweight yet, so his chin remains largely untested in the division. We’ve also seen Williams slow down late in fights and his cardio management isn’t the best, nor is he much of a finishing threat. So if Tafa can avoid gassing out himself, he could potentially outlast Williams and land a rare late finish. While that’s unlikely to return a big score, as the second cheapest fighter on the card it still could be enough for him to be useful. However, given Tafa’s cheap price tag, he should be pretty popular, as will Williams. That makes being underweight on this fight far more interesting in tournaments and we see a lot of ways for the winner to score poorly, regardless of who gets their hand raised. The odds imply Tafa has a 38% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Rose Namajunas
15th UFC Fight (9-5)Looking to bounce back from a pair of decision losses, Namajunas recently moved up from 115 lb to 125 lb and proceeded to lose a low-volume decision to Manon Fiorot. Namajunas did mess up her pinky early in that fight if you’re looking for an excuse, but it wasn’t a great performance overall and she looked somewhat undersized at the new weight class. Sixteen months prior to that, she took part in one of the worst fights of all time, in a bizarrely low-volume split decision loss to Carla Esparza for the Strawweight belt. After 25 minutes of inaction, Namajunas finished ahead 37-30 in significant strikes and 38-30 in total strikes, while Esparza led in takedowns 2-1 and in control time 22 seconds to 10, and even those totals seem generous. All future staring contests will be judged on a scale of one to Namajunas/Esparza. Judges deservingly catch a lot of flack, but that was truly one of the hardest fights to judge based on how little happened. Namajunas later talked about how she considered retiring after that fight and just didn’t feel aggressive and didn’t want to hurt anybody at the time. Prior to that loss, Namajunas won back-to-back fights against Zhang Weili, with a R1 head kick KO followed by a close split decision. Just before that, Namajunas won a three-round split decision over Jessica Andrade, and four of Namajunas’s last five fights went the distance, with three of those being split (2-1).
Now 11-6 as a pro, Namajunas has two R1 KO/TKO wins, five submissions, and four decision victories. Two of those five submissions came in round one, one ended in round two, another in round three, and one in round five. Her last two finishes both ended in first round knockouts and she hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017—although she also only has one knockout win since 2017, which was in 2021. She’s also been knocked out once herself (2019 R2 KO by slam against Andrade), submitted once (2014 R3 RNC against Esparza), and has four decision losses. After spending her entire career at 115 lb, Namajunas moved up to 125 lb for the first time in her last fight, and it appears that’s where she’ll stay.
This will be the 9th five-round fight of Namajunas’ career (5-3), with seven of those coming with the Strawweight belt on the line (4-3). Her first five round match came in her 2014 UFC debut against Carla Esparza and Namajunas was submitted in the third round. Two fights later Namajunas took on Paige VanZant, in her only five round fight where a belt wasn’t on the line, and Namajunas won with a 5th round submission. Two years after that, Namajunas got her first title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and won the belt with a first round TKO. She then defended the belt in a rematch that went the full 25 minutes. After beating the former champ in back-to-back title fights, Namajunas was knocked out by Jessica Andrade via R2 slam in a 2019 title fight. Two fights later she knocked out Zhang Weili in 78 seconds to win the belt back, and followed it up with a split-decision win over Weili when they ran it back later in 2021. Namajunas then lost the belt in her next fight, before taking a year and a half off and moving up to 125 lb. Five of Namajunas’ first six five-round fights ended early, but her last two both went the distance.
Overall, Namajunas is very quick with great movement and footwork and trains in Colorado with Trevor Wittman and Pat Barry. She holds black belts in Taekwondo and Karate, and a BJJ brown belt and is dangerous both on the feet and the mat. Larger 30 ft cages seem to benefit her style as she likes to float away from contact in open space as she controls the distance, although this next fight will be at the Apex, where Namajunas has yet to compete. In her 14 UFC fights, she landed 19 of her 39 takedown attempts (48.7% accuracy), with at least one takedown landed in nine of those fights. On the other side of things, her opponents got her down on 16 of their 41 attempts (60.98% defense). Only once in her UFC career has she landed more than two takedowns in a fight, which was when she took Paige VanZant down eight times in a 2015 five-round match. Five of her last six opponents to attempt a takedown against her all landed at least one of their attempts. We typically don’t see a ton of striking volume in her matches, and Namajunas only averages 3.68 SSL/min and 3.53 SSA/min. Even in her four fights that made it to the fifth round, only once did Namajunas top 86 significant strikes landed, which was when she landed a career high 105 significant strikes in her first title defense back in 2018.
Amanda Ribas
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Continuing to trade wins and losses for her last seven fights, Ribas recently finished Luana Pinheiro in a wild back and forth R3 TKO. Ribas didn’t look to wrestle much in the fight despite taking some early damage, and ultimately failed to land her only takedown attempt, while stuffing five of Pinheiro’s six attempts. After getting outstruck 25-18 in the first round, Ribas came back to lead the dance in the later rounds and finished ahead 87-55 in significant strikes. That fight notably took place at 115 lb, but Ribas’ previous three fights had all been at 125 lb, where this next match will also be. Leading up to her recent win, Ribas suffered a second round TKO loss to Maycee Barber in another wild brawl. Barber finished ahead 81-35 in significant strikes and 93-43 in total strikes, while Ribas took her down twice and controlled her for two and a half minutes, before getting finished in the latter half of round two. Prior to that, Ribas won a lopsided decision over Viviane Araujo in an impressive performance. Ribas nearly landed a finish, as she hurt Araujo early in round two, but couldn’t quite get her out of there and instead controlled her on the mat for the entire round as she cruised to a unanimous decision win. Just before that win, Ribas moved up from 115 lb to 125 lb and took on perennial Flyweight contender Katlyn Chookagian in her first fight at the new weight class. It looked like Ribas had done enough to win a decision, but two of the three judges disagreed and Chookagian won a split decision. Ribas originally joined the UFC in 2019 and won her first four fights, before getting knocked out by Marina Rodriguez in 2021. She bounced back with a decision win over Virna Jandiroba, before moving up to 125 lb to face Chookagian in 2022.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Ribas has three TKO wins, four submissions, and five decision victories. Six of her seven early wins came in under a round and a half, including four in round one. On the other side of things, she’s been knocked out three times and has one decision loss. One of her KO losses came in the first round of a 2015 fight against Polyana Viana, before either of them joined the UFC, while the other two both occurred in the second round of UFC fights. Ribas spent almost all of her career at 115 lb before moving up to 125 lb in 2022, but did fight a terrible Paige VanZant at 125 lb in 2020 and landed a first round submission. Three of her last four fights were at 125 lb, but she did compete at 115 lb in her last outing, while she’ll be returning to 125 lb here.
This will be just the 2nd five-round fight of Ribas’ career and first in the UFC. The only other time she’s been part of a fight that was scheduled to go five rounds was in a 2016 R2 TKO win, so she’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes.
Overall, Ribas is a ferocious ball of crazy that comes at you like a rabid mongoose. She holds black belts in both Judo and BJJ and likes to look for a lot of head and arm throws, but has also shown a willingness to stand trade, which has not always been to her benefit. She lacks head movement and leaves her chin up, which results in absorbing a lot of damage as she screams into the pocket. However, while that’s resulted in her getting knocked out at multiple points, the judges are into it and she’s won five of the six decisions she’s been to and easily could be 6-0 if a split decision against Chookagian had gone her way, which many will argue it should have. In her 10 UFC fights, she landed 15 of her 29 takedown attempts (51.7% accuracy), with at least one takedown landed in nine of those 10 fights. Her opponents have only been able to get her down on 3 of their 24 attempts (87.5% defense). Despite her grappling credentials, whoever has finished ahead in significant strikes has won all 10 of her matches. Ribas has faced three dangerous grapplers in her UFC career in Mackenzie Dern, Virna Jandiroba, and we’ll include Viviane Araujo on that list, and won decisions against all three of them. Meanwhile, all three of Ribas’ UFC losses were against strikers. Ribas hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2020, but will be looking to achieve that feat here.
Fight Prediction:
Namajunas will have a 2” height advantage, but Ribas will have a 1” reach advantage and is a year younger than the 31-year-old Namajunas.
Namajunas is no stranger to five round fights, as six of her last eight fights were scheduled to go five rounds, with three of those going the distance. Meanwhile, this will be Ribas’ first five-round fight in the UFC and she’s never been past the third round. However, Ribas does have plenty of experience fighting in the smaller cage at the Apex, while Namajunas has never fought there and is accustomed to the larger 30 ft Octagon where she has plenty of space to evade and utilize her footwork. Namajunas’ lack of activity has resulted in her being part of numerous close decisions, and she’s just 4-4 with the judges in her career, with four of her last six decisions being split (2-2). Meanwhile, Ribas is 5-1 in six career decisions, with her only split coming in her one defeat. Ribas is the much more active fighter, averaging 4.92 SSL/min to Namajunas’ 3.68 SSA/min. And Ribas actually absorbs slightly fewer strikes as well as she averages 3.33 SSA/min and Namajunas averages 3.53 SSA/min. Ribas also leads in takedowns landed per 15 minutes (2.0 vs. 1.5), takedown accuracy (51% vs. 48%), takedown defense (87% vs. 60%), and submission attempts per 15 minutes (0.8 vs. 0.6). The list goes on if you want to dig deeper into a statistical comparison, but you get the idea. Ribas is the busier fighter both on the feet and the mat, and in terms of how frequently she’s been competing. Meanwhile Namajunas said she contemplated retirement before her last fight and is now competing at 125 lb because she didn’t feel like cutting as much weight. Despite all of that, Namajunas has seen a significant line move in her favor, as the 2021 time capsule crew appears to be betting in full force.
It’s been two and a half years since Namajunas won a fight and she only has one finish since 2017. Women’s five-round fights have been notoriously difficult to predict and favorites have gone just 9-10-1 in the last 20 of them. If you bet $100 on each of those favorites you’d be down $631.15, while if you bet $100 on every underdog, you’d be ahead $1,525.24. So if you just want to go with the system play here, it’s Ribas. It is concerning how hittable and prone to getting knocked out she is, but Namajunas has two career knockouts in 17 pro fights and tends to limit her opportunities. And on the other side of things, Ribas only has one KO/TKO win since 2016, although it was in her last fight. They’re both good grapplers and we don’t see either of them submitting the other and 13 of the last 20 women’s five-round fights went the distance (65%). While we’ve never seen how Ribas’ cardio will hold up over five rounds, she’s looked fine late in three round fights and Namajunas doesn’t push much of a pace. Namajunas also seems completely oblivious as to who’s winning her fights and her corner is just yelling “All DAY!” and “You’re the Best!” to her, so they’re not exactly helping when it comes to urgency. We think Ribas can be the busier and the more aggressive fighter, and the smaller cage will play into her favor. Namajunas’ best days appear to be behind her and we’re taking Ribas to win a close decision, while acknowledging that her lack of five-round experience and suspect durability both add to the volatility in this matchup.
Our favorite bet here is “Namajunas/Ribas FGTD” at +132.
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DFS Implications:
Namajunas averaged 97 DraftKings points in her nine UFC wins and if we remove her two three-round decisions, that total jumps to 108 points. However, she hasn’t topped 102 points since 2017 and in her last two five-round decision wins she scored 101 and 79 points respectively. Her last five-round fight was a 25 minute staring contest where she donated her Strawweight belt to Carla Esparza and only scored 20 DraftKings points in the loss. The last time Namajunas won a fight was in a November 2021 split decision and she’s 0-1 since moving up to 125 lb, which came after she said she contemplated retirement and no longer wanted to hurt people. So at least she’s saying all the right things and has all the momentum behind her. In her fight against Esparza, which took place on a 15-fight card, Namajunas was priced at $8,900 on DraftKings and still checked in at 42% owned. The field must have a thing for buzz cuts and masochism, maybe that’s why Sean Strickland’s so popular. In fairness, she was at least coming off two straight wins over Zhang Weili at the time, whereas now she’s coming off two straight losses, and we should see her ownership dip some. However, we still expect her to be owned well above her chances of ending up in the optimal, and five-round female favorites not named Amanda Nunes, Zhang Weili, or Valentina Shevchenko have historically struggled to return value in DFS. So this looks like an easy spot to be underweight on in tournaments, you just need to hope that Ribas doesn’t lose her mind and charge head first into a head kick in the first round or force Namajunas into an uncharacteristically high-paced brawl, neither of which are entirely impossible. While this isn’t our all time favorite fight to stack in low-risk contests, we still think that’s the fight move. The odds imply Namajunas has a 64% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Ribas has averaged 96 DraftKings points in her seven UFC wins, with four scores of 101 or more. She offers a solid combination of striking and grappling that leave her with multiple ways to score well. She’s shown a willingness to push a crazy pace and has no problem throwing down in a brawl. While that has gotten her into trouble at times, as she has three knockout losses, it’s also beneficial for DFS production. However, Namajunas is a master of slowing fights down and we could also see Ribas look to pace herself more as she steps into her first UFC five-round fight. Fiorot only scored 55 points in her recent three-round decision win over Namajunas, while Esparza amazingly only scored 53 points in a five-round victory over Namajunas just before that. While we are expecting to see more scoring here, that at least shows the potential for the fight to the bust. With that said, at Ribas cheap price tag, she has a much lower scoring threshold for what it will take to end up in winning lineups and we much prefer playing her over Namajunas in tournaments. One concern with Ribas is she tends to absorb a lot of damage and has been prone to getting knocked out, which makes it tough to fully trust her floor. However, Namajunas only has two career knockout wins and only one since 2017. Ultimately, it’s best to treat Ribas as a value play option with a limited ceiling, as Namajunas is unlikely to want to engage in a brawl and spends a lot of time at distance, circling away from her opponents. The odds imply Ribas has a 36% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
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Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
Fernando Padilla OVER 90.5 Pts
