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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Luke Sanders
8th UFC Fight (3-4)This matchup has been a game of musical chairs. Damon Jackson had originally been scheduled to face TJ Laramie, but Laramie dropped out and Sanders stepped in to face Jackson on April 8th. Then Jackson also dropped out, leaving Sanders without an opponent. Colares had originally been scheduled to face Journey Newson, but then Newson withdrew, leaving Sanders and Colares both looking for new dance partners. So naturally they decided to merge those two fights and take on each other and this current matchup was booked on April 22nd.
It appeared Colares was set to face Newson at 135 lb, as that’s where they’ve both recently been fighting, and Newson has never fought at 145 lb in his career. Colares has bounced back and forth between 135 lb and 145 lb, but fought his last two matches at 135 lb, after losing his 2019 UFC debut at 145 lb.
The Laramie/Jackson matchup was set to take place at 145 lb, so presumably that’s where it was going to stay when Sanders originally stepped in for Laramie. Sanders started his pro career at 145 lb, but moved down to 135 lb in 2014. His last fight was notably moved up to a 140 lb Catchweight, following a 21 month layoff for Sanders, so he may have been having issues making 135 lb, but that’s unconfirmed. Long story short, Sanders appears to have been preparing for a 145 lb fight, while up until very recently, Colares had been preparing for a 135 lb fight. Despite that, Colares is the taller fighter, so it will be important to monitor both fighters carefully at weigh-ins. The last time Sanders fought at 145 lb was in his 2016 UFC debut, so it will be interesting to see how he looks back up at his old weight class. Colares last fought at 145 lb in his 2019 UFC debut.
Sanders is coming off a November brawl against Nate Maness following a 21 month layoff. Sanders looked to have Maness wobbled at multiple points as he landed heavy punches, but Maness was landing some clean shots of his own and eventually dropped Sanders in the second round, in what was the beginning of the end. Sanders got back up to his feet, but Maness was able to take him down, at which point Sanders immediately gave up his back. While Maness is generally not a submission threat, he was still capable of getting his forearm under the chin of Sanders and quickly choked him out. If Maness can submit Sanders then literally anyone can, but it’s important to note that he rocked him first on the feet and Sanders was compromised at that point.
Sanders’ last win and only finish in the last five years came in a R2 KO in February 2019. Six of his seven UFC fights have now ended early, while the only one to make it past the second round ended in a 2018 decision win over Patrick Williams. In an interview going into his last fight, Sander talked about how he fought with a torn ACL for his previous five fights, which he finally got fixed before his last match.
Sanders came into the UFC in 2016 with a perfect 10-0 record, with seven of those wins coming early. He won his 145 lb UFC debut with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission, but has since lost four of his last six fights. His first UFC loss resulted from a 2017 R2 Kneebar Submission in a fight that Sanders was clearly winning. He did lose a point for an illegal knee in that match, but he looked close to finishing the fight with a KO before getting caught out of position and eventually submitted in R2. His next fight also ended in R2, this time by KO. Sanders could be seen contesting the stoppage after he popped right back up, but he definitely got caught with a clean right hook.
He bounced back from the pair of R2 losses with a decision win, but was then submitted in R1 by ageless submission ninja Rani Yahya via Heel Hook. Following that loss, Sanders landed a R2 KO on a washed up Renan Barao, who’s now lost five in a row and seven of his last eight fights.
Sanders is a high-volume stand up striker who’s not looking to grapple unless a neck is served up on a silver platter—like in his UFC debut. He has just one takedown and one submission attempt in his seven UFC fights. However, he’s constantly a threat to knock opponents out on the fight and seven of his 13 career wins have come by KO. With that said, he has just one finish and two wins in the last five years, so it’s hard to be overly optimistic on him in general.
We expect his 66% takedown defense to play a pivotal role in this match, so let’s look closer at how Sander’s opponents have fared on takedowns against him, beginning with the most recent:
Maness 66% Career TD Accuracy - 1 for 2 (50%) - R2 SUB L
Barao - No Takedowns Attempted - R2 SUB W
Yahya 33% Career TD Accuracy - 4 for 8 (50%) - R1 SUB L
Williams 41% Career TD Accuracy - 1 for 5 (20%) - R3 DEC W
Soukhamthath - No Takedowns Attempted - R2 KO L
Alcantara 62% Career TD Accuracy - 1 for 2 (50%) - R2 SUB L
Blanco 36% Career TD Accuracy - 1 for 1 (100%) - R1 SUB W
So all of his opponents who have attempted a takedown have landed at one, but only Yahya has landed more than one. It will be crucial for Sanders to keep this fight standing up if he wants to get back in the winning column.
Felipe Colares
4th UFC Fight (1-2)After winning the first eight fights of his pro career, Colares has now lost two of his last three since joining the UFC. His last four fights have all ended in decisions, and his last five have all made it to the third round. He hasn’t been a very active fighter and only has five fights since late 2015. He’s notably never been finished as a pro, but was very nearly knocked out in his last fight. While he did finish his first seven opponents, those wins all came against some questionable competition who came in with records of: 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-1, 0-1, 8-4, and 5-3.
He was very nearly knocked out at the end of the first round in his last fight and then dropped with a left cross to start R2. Overall, he was absolutely dominated by a legit Montel Jackson in that fight. Jackson led on significant strikes 75-7, total strikes 96-8, takedowns 11-1 and control time 10:37-1:22. Colares attempted eight takedowns, but landed just one, while Jackson went 11 for 15 on his attempts. Colares did attempt three submission attempts and is a BJJ black belt, but was dominated severly for the first two rounds. Jackson looked gassed late and essentially rode out his early work.
Prior to that fight, Colares took on a debuting Domingo Pilarte. As all fights do, this one started on the feet, but Colares looked to turn it into a grappling match almost immediately and that’s how essentially the entire fight played out. Although, Colares looked frustrated with the grappling nature by the end of the fight as Pilarte took his back and held a body lock for the final minutes of the fight. The match ended in a low-volume split decision win for Colares, who came out ahead on significant strikes 23-11 and total strikes 92-69. Both fighters landed two takdowns—Pilarte on five attempts and Colares on eight—and Colares narrowly came out ahead on control time 6:38-6:10.
Looking back at his February 2019 UFC debut, Colares took on another grappler in Geraldo de Freitas Jr. The first couple of minutes played out on the feet, before Colares was eventually able to get it to the ground and turn it into a back and forth grappling match. De Freitas Jr. dominated the striking, coming out ahead 49-21 in significant strikes, and took Colares down six times on nine attempts, while controlling him for over six and a half minutes. Colares responded with three takedowns of his own, on eight attempts, and just over four minutes of control time.
Colares has now gone 6 for 24 on takedowns in the UFC, so despite his desire to get fights to the ground, he’s really struggled with his takedown accuracy. Sitting at 1-2 in the UFC, he’s likely fighting to keep his job here.
Fight Prediction:
Colares will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is eight years younger than the 35-year-old Luke Sanders.
So far, all of Colares’ UFC fights have turned into grappling matches, so it will be interesting to see how this next fight plays out against a pure striker in Sanders. You have to assume Colares will be looking to take it to the ground, while Sanders will want no part of a grappling match. Colares has really struggled to finish takedowns, but his consistent efforts could keep this fight in the clinch for extended periods of time. Neither one of these two fighters have been very impressive, and each appears well equipped to attack the weakness of the other. So it should simply come down to whether or not Sanders can keep the fight on the feet and/or land an early KO. Colares has notably never been finished, while Sanders has been submitted in three of his last six fights, so the finishing stats definitely support Colares in this one. It’s close to a coin flip if you ask us, as Colares has looked incredibly suspect on the feet and is terrible at getting fights to the ground, but Sanders has looked terrible on the mat. If it ends early, it will almost certainly be from either a Sanders KO or a Colares submission. However, it’s also possible that Colares forces extended periods of time in the clinch, while he fails on one takedown after another, and this goes to a disappointing decision. While this could go either way, there’s a good chance Colares pulls the upset and gets his first submission win in the UFC here.
The lines worth considering are “Fight Does Not Go the Distance” at -122, “Sanders Wins by KO” at +420 and “Colares Wins by Submission” at +460. You can also consider “Fight Ends in R2” at +470.
DFS Implications:
Sanders checks in at $8,700 on DraftKings where he’ll likely need a first round finish or a high-volume second round finish to return value as you can’t expect him to score on any offensive grappling stats. However, he’s curiously priced at just $15 on FanDuel, where he will undoubtedly benefit from takedowns defended. Therefore he looks like a much better FanDuel play compared to DraftKings. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win the fight, a 27% chance to end it early and a 13% chance to finish it in R1.
Colares has yet to put up a useful score in his first three UFC fights, but he’s also been involved in matches against three straight grapplers. Now facing a pure striker, it will be interesting to see if he is able to make it a more one-sided grappling match—assuming he lasts long enough to get the fight to the ground. If he can get Sanders down, this looks like a prime opportunity to land a submission win as Sanders has been submitted in three of his last six fights—including by Nate Maness who can’t even spell submission. We haven’t seen Colares finish anybody going all the way back to 2016, so there’s also the possibility that he smothers Sanders for the duration of the fight on the mat, but doesn’t get a finish. In that scenario, he would make for a much better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel, so we prefer him over there. The odds imply Colares has a 44% chance to win this fight, a 23% chance to finish Sanders early and a 11% chance to end it in R1.
Fight #10
Andreas Michailidis
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Dropping back down to his normal weight class of 185 lb after making his debut up at 205 lb, Michailidis was slightly ahead in significant strikes (28-18) in his July 2020 debut, but shot for a takedown at the end of the first round and got finished by heavy downward elbows in a slightly bizarre R1 TKO stoppage as/after the round ended. His opponent, Modestas Bukauskas, landed several elbows that looked just barely legal to the side/back of Michailidis’ head. As the horn sounded, Michailidis lay next to the door of the cage hunched over, grasping the back of his head. The cornermen entered and the ref told Michailidis he had to get up so Michailidis began to sit up, but went to lean against what he thought was the cage. Instead he leaned against an open door and fell backwards, and the ref immediately stopped the fight. It appeared that he would have had a chance to push off the cage and stand up, had the door not been open—but he also didn’t look entirely there so who knows. He probably didn’t have much left at that point anyways. Bukauskas went on to lose his next two fights, making the loss look even worse.
Prior to the loss, Michailidis fought a catchweight fight at 195 lb against journeyman Arymarcel Santos (41-37 pro record), who had lost two of his last three and nine of his previous 15 fights and hasn’t fought since. That match was fought in a boxing ring and Santos provided essentially zero resistance as he was taken down to the mat and easily finished with ground and pound. It seems unfair to even classify that as a pro fight.
In his most recent 185 lb fight (3rd most recent fight), Michailidis took on former UFC fighter Marcel Fortuna (1-2 in the UFC), who had lost two in a row and hasn’t fought since. Michailidis landed a spinning back kick to drop Fortuna in R1 and finished the fight with ground and pound. That spinning back kick appears to be Michailidis’ most dangerous/favorite weapon. Prior to that match, Michailidis hadn’t fought in 16 months, going back to when he defeated 6-5 Tomas Bolo. We could keep going, but you probably get the idea—Michailidis has been fighting bad competition and is still just 3-2 in his last five fights. So we’ll talk about his finishes next, but just keep in mind the level of competition he’s faced.
Six of his last seven fights have notably ended in R1, with Michailidis winning five of those. Only one of his 16 career fights has gone the distance, which was a 2016 decision win. His other 11 wins all came early, with seven KOs and four submissions. All four of his career losses have come by KO, although part of that could be due to the fact that he generally doesn’t appear to have the gas tank to even make it 15 minutes.
Prior to getting finished in his UFC debut, Michailidis’ most recent loss came in the third round of a 2017 fight. Michailidis looked absolutely exhausted late in the second round and was literally falling over just trying to throw punches by the third. His opponent was easily able to capitalize on this, even with the most feeble half-hearted ground and pound you’ve ever seen. Michailidis curled up face down on the mat, putting up no resistance, until the ref eventually stopped the fight.
While he does have four submission wins on his record, all four came in his first six pro fights and he doesn’t appear to be a legitimate submission threat. Two of those four came by Kimura—strangely against the same opponent in 2011. The third was a 2011 Rear-Naked Choke and the fourth, which is simply listed as “Side Choke” on his record, was back in 2014 against an opponent who’s been submitted 10 times in his career—including his last three fights. Michailidis does sloppily shoot for a decent number of takedowns, but is mostly just looking for ground and pound, in the rare event that he’s actually successful in getting the fight to the mat.
He throws lots of big looping punches and kicks that take tons of energy and also misses a lot of takedowns. Those factors seem to be major contributors as to why he gets gassed by R2. It’s hard to know if he’ll make any adjustments, but his cardio late in fights is of major concern.
As we discussed, Michailidis made his UFC debut at 205 lb and now will be dropping back down to 185 lb. Michailidis has only competed at 185 lb once in the last three and half years, which came two years ago in April 2019. So it will be important to monitor him closely at weigh-ins.
KB Bhullar
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Bhullar’s October 2020 UFC debut against a tough southpaw in Tom Breese couldn’t have gone much worse. It lasted 102 seconds and ended with Bhullar getting dropped from a jab and finished with hammer fists. However, what was really the beginning of the end for him was a stiff left hand that caught Bhullar squarely in the side of the jaw, snapping his head back, shortly before Breese finished him about 25 seconds later.
Prior to that loss, Bhullar was 8-0 as a pro with six of his wins coming early—four by KO and two by submission. All six of those finishes notably came in the first round, but against exclusively poor competition. In his last fight before joining the UFC, Bhullar defeated Matt Dwyer in a low-volume five-round decision. Dwyer came into that fight off a loss and with an 11-5 pro record. He’s since gone on to lose his next two and is now on a four fight losing streak. Bhullar was able to drop Dwyer with a head kick at one point in the fight, but couldn’t finish him.
In Bhullar’s previous fight to that, he took on 34-year-old Cody Krahn, who came in with a 16-13 record after losing 4 of his last 5 fights. Bhullar finished Krahn in the first round from a referee stoppage as he went to work with ground and pound after dropping Krahn with a kick. Krahn immediately protested the stoppage, but wasn’t doing much to fight back. Krahn never fought again.
Looking back one fight further, Bhullar took on Derek Boyle, who came into the fight on a six fight losing streak and extended that to seven as Bhullar finished the fight on the ground with an Anaconda Choke Submission. So overall you can see that while Bhullar does have a history of finishes, he’s been fighting guys that have been struggling, even on the regional scene.
Bhullar is a calculated fighter and a very patient, slow starter. At 6’4” he has very long legs, and likes to stay at kicking range, where he’s the most dangerous and at the least risk of getting punched in the face. Only one of his last four opponents attempted a takedown, which was Matt Dwyer who went 2 for 7 on his attempts. Bhullar notably took five years off between his fourth and fifth pro fights from 2013 to 2018, but since returning, four of his five fights have ended in the first round.
Fight Prediction:
Bhullar will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
With both of these fighters coming off first round KO losses, it will be interesting to see how cautiously they approach this fight. Bhullar was already a slow starter before his first loss, so it’s possible he comes in extremely tentative. However, his calculating approach to fighting definitely preserves his gas tank and he looked to have plenty of energy late in the 5th round of his second most recent match. The same cannot be said about his opponent, Michailidis, who only appears to have the cardio to make it half a fight. Both fighters are most dangerous with their legs, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see each guy comfortable fighting at distance, with Michailidis likely mixing in sloppy takedown attempts. That could easily play out in Bhullar’s favor, as long as he can avoid getting knocked out in the first round again. We think Bhullar comes in a little more cautious and prepared than he did in his debut, stretches this fight out into the later rounds, drops an exhausted Michailidis with a kick late and finishes him with ground and pound in round three.
We like Bhullar to pull the upset, and think it comes with a late KO. Our favorite line is “Bhullar Wins by R3 KO” at +3100. You can also consider simply betting his moneyline at +198, KO line at +650 or R2 KO line at +2000. He does have two submission wins on his record, so if you want to be safe you can bet his R2 win line at +1100 and R3 win line at +1800 instead of the KO alternatives. We still think it’s more likely he ends it with a KO though. Betting that the “Fight Ends in a KO” at -165 seems like a safe option here.
DFS Implications:
Michailidis opened as a massive -250 favorite, which is interesting considering he lost his debut after seeing the line move considerably in his favor as an underdog in that fight. So apparently there’s something about this guy that the oddsmakers and field both seem to like, but we’re not seeing it. Priced as the third most expensive fighter on DraftKings, Michailidis will need a first round finish to return value in this spot. He’s also only won one fight that made it out of the first round in the last decade, which was a 2016 decision—the only fight of his career to go the distance. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win the fight, a slate-leading 51% chance to get it done early and 24% chance it comes in R1. Those all seem way too high. It will be interesting to see how popular he is with that high of a chance for a finish (according to the odds), but coming off a R1 loss in his only UFC fight.
Bhullar checks in as the third cheapest fighter on the DraftKings slate and looks to be in a good buy-low bounce back spot after flopping in his debut. He has a history of finishes and comes into a favorable matchup against an opponent who’s struggled to make it three rounds. While Bhullar’s patient fighting style would generally be something we would want to avoid in DFS, Michailidis’ moped sized gas tank provides an avenue for him to really turn it on late and get a finish (à la Marc-Andre Barriault). He certainly doesn’t come without risk, as Bhullar looked woefully unprepared to handle what the UFC had to offer in terms of competitive striking in his debut. However, we’re not convinced that Michailidis is a UFC caliber talent either, making this a high-variance low-level fight. Following this fight, expect to be mumbling [BLANK] is so damn terrible, how is he (or they) in the UFC?! According to the odds, Bhullar has a 33% chance to win the fight, a 17% chance to get it done early and a 8% chance to finish it in R1.
Fight #9
Loma Lookboonmee
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Konklak Suphisara, or Loma Lookboonmee as she goes by professionally, is a Muay Thai champion and the first Thai fighter to join the UFC. While she has a lifetime of experience in Muay Thai, she’s still relatively new to MMA as she’s only had seven pro fights with three of those coming in the UFC.
Prior to joining the UFC, 5’1” Loma fought at Atomweight (105 lb), which is not an option in the UFC, so she was forced to move up to Strawweight (115 lb). So in general, Loma is a little undersized for the division. Loma did say that she added 9 lb of weight between her first and second UFC fights, and looked a little thicker, so she might be making the necessary adjustments, but she’ll still be at a height disadvantage against almost all of her opponents.
In Loma’s UFC debut, she landed a respectable 99 significant strikes while only absorbing 53. She added one takedown while defending two of the three against her, on her way to a decision win. However, she was unable to really build on the performance as she only landed 53 significant strikes against Angela Hill in her second UFC fight, while absorbing 48. She did land her only takedown attempt in the match and successfully defended 3 of 4 attempts by Hill. In her most recent fight, Lookboonmee won the significant striking battle 80-26, but failed to land her only attempted takedown. Once again, she stopped three of her opponent’s four takedown attempts and went on to win a decision.
Loma is a patient, but solid striker who doesn’t add much in the grappling department. Her last four fights have ended in decisions, and she’s generally not a threat to end fights early—at least against other professional fighters.
Sam Hughes
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)It will be interesting to see how Hughes responds after basically quitting one round into her short notice UFC debut, claiming she couldn’t see out of one of her eyes. Sure she absorbed a high number of punches from Torres, but common. If she wanted to continue, that fight would have continued. It caught everyone off guard that it was being stopped as Torres hadn’t done any real noticeable damage, despite setting a career high pace with 52 strikes landed in R1. It’s not like the doctor had been called in to look at her, Hughes volunteered a reason why she couldn’t continue in the fight, in true Rodney Dangerfield like fashion.
In fairness to Hughes, that was just her seventh pro fight and she was probably terrified after facing the first real competition of her career in a fight that she had no business being part of. The only reason she was even there was because Angela Hill withdrew from the match.
Hughes has now lost two of her last three fights with all three of those ending early. She’s only been to one decision in her short seven fight career, which she won, and only turned pro in 2019. Let’s just put it this way, if Sam Hughes’ pro career was a jar of mustard in your fridge, it wouldn’t have expired yet. Four of her fights ended by submission (3-1) and two by KO (1-1). However, her first three wins were all against opponents who had never fought professionally before. And only one of those women has fought since—which ended with another R1 submission loss for her. Hughes started off fighting at 130 lb in February 2019, but slowly worked her way down to 115 lb by July of 2020.
Fight Prediction:
Hughes will have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Lookboonmee will look to continue where Torres left off, lighting Hughes up until she decides she doesn’t want to be there anymore. There are many similarities between Lookboonmee and Torres. Both are 5’1”, both had fought to at least four straight decisions coming into their match against Hughes and both entered their fight against Hughes with just one finish on their pro record. If anything, Lookboonmee has been the more successful fighter as of late, since she’s won three of her last four fights, while Torres was 1-4 coming into that match. To be fair, Torres fought three former champions in that stretch. Anyways’ Lookboonmee wins this fight, it’s just a question of whether or not she gets a finish. While it’s not the most likely outcome, it could be a now or never scenario, and it’s definitely possible. She’s a solid striker who certainly has the ability to get it done.
“Lookboonmee Wins by KO” at +460 is the only bet we’re interested in here.
DFS Implications:
Lookboonmee comes into this dream matchup off four straight decisions, but she does have one KO on her record—although it came against a 2-4 computer simulation. If she’s ever going to get another finish this would be the time. While it’s still tough to rely on her for knockout, she projects to go incredibly low owned as the most expensive fighter on the slate, despite being the biggest favorite on the card. With all that said, her fighting style doesn't generally translate to high DFS scores and she hasn't shown any sort of ground game outside of occasionally landing a takedown. The odds suggest she has a 76% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance to end it in R1.
Other than the fact that four of her five wins have come early, there’s really nothing good to say about Hughes. Maybe she’ll look completely different with more time to prepare after taking her UFC debut on short notice, but we doubt it. After getting pieced up for five minutes by a 5’1” ball of fury in her last fight, we expect this next 5’1” fireball to melt her face off as well. Honestly, it’s kind of a mystery as to why Hughes is even in the UFC. For what it’s worth, the odds imply Hughes has a 24% chance to win this fight—wrong—a 10% chance to end it early—doubt it—and a 5% chance to end it in R1—still too high.
Fight #8
Kai Kamaka
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Kamaka had been on an impressive six fight winning streak going into his last match, but was then knocked out by Jonathan Pearce in the second round of an action packed fight. Prior to the KO loss, Kamak’s previous seven fights all went the distance. His only other two career fights to end early came in his second and third pro fights, with a 2014 R1 Rear-Naked Choke win (against a 1-7 opponent) and a 2015 R1 TKO loss by doctor stoppage. Following that loss, Kamaka took nearly two years off before returning in 2017 to lose a decision and start his pro career off 2-2. Following the bumpy start, he’s now 8-3 as a pro with seven of his wins ending in decisions, but two of his three losses ending in knockouts.
In his last fight, Kamaka stepped in on just eight days notice after Sean Woodson dropped out of the fight. Kamaka was giving up 5” of height and 2” of reach to Jonathan Pearce, who did a good job of using his size advantage to overwhelm Kamaka, especially in the grappling department. Pearce narrowly outlanded Kamaka in significant strikes 51-47, but did his best work with ground and pound where the margin was much wider in total strikes at 113-48. Pearce landed five takedowns on seven attempts, as he relentlessly hunted for the finish with chokes and ground and pound in the second round, until the ref finally stopped the fight. Kamaka went 1 for 3 on his own takedown attempts, and was able to reverse the position once, but he was clearly outmatched from a grappling standpoint. Kamaka did make a last-ditch attempt to steal the fight with a Guillotine submission on what ultimately was Pearce’s final takedown, but Pearce was able to get out of it without too much trouble. Kamaka looked very susceptible to being takedown down in the fight, which should play an essential role in this upcoming match.
Prior to that fight, Kamaka made his ultra short notice UFC debut last August on just a few days notice, and just two weeks after fighting to a three round decision win in the LFA. He took on a fellow debuting fighter in Tony Kelley, but while Kamaka hadn’t fought in 15 days, Kelley hadn’t fought in 15 months. Kamaka showcased his quick combinations of straight punches early on, as he consistently pushed the pace from the start. However, Kelley appeared to catch up on strikes late in the second and early in the third rounds, and the fight ended in a unanimous 29-28 decision win for Kamaka, with the significant strikes dead even at 114, but Kamaka up 5-0 on takedowns and amassing over five minutes of control time.
After starting his career at 135 lb, Kamaka moved up to 145 lb in 2019, and has since gone 3-1. At just 5’7” he’s on the smaller side for the division.
TJ Brown
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Brown came into the UFC in 2020 on a four fight winning streak, with all four of those wins coming early—including three in the first round. Now sitting at 14-8 as a pro, following a pair of losses in his first two UFC fights, only three of his 22 career fights have made it to the judges. He has four wins by KO and nine by submission, while his lone decision win came in 2016. He’s also been finished early in six of his eight losses, split evenly between knockouts and submissions. One of his two career decision losses came in his last fight, with the other coming back in 2016. Prior to his recent decision loss, he went 10 straight fights without needing the judges (7-3), with seven of those ending in R1 (5-2). All four of his career KOs came in the first round as have five of his nine submission wins. Three of his other four submission wins came in R3. All three of his career KO losses have come in R1, while his three submission losses are spread out across the three rounds.
Brown started his pro career off in 2013 with a R1 TKO loss, but bounced back with wins in seven of his next eight fights, with all but one of those fights ending early. Then, he went through a bit of a rough patch from 2016 to 2018, where he went 3-4, again with all but one of those fights ending early. He appeared to make the necessary adjustments, and bounced back to start 2019 off with three straight first round finishes (2 KOs & 1 Submission), before being invited onto DWCS in August 2019.
He kept his finishing streak going on DWCS with a third round submission win against Dylan Lockard, who entered the match with a 6-1 record and on a three fight winning streak of his own—including KOs in his last two. Lockard dropped Brown 20 seconds into the fight, but despite looking dazed, Brown was able to recover enough to immediately take the fight to the ground. An action packed first round went sideways when Brown landed an illegal knee to a grounded opponent, but thankfully Lockard was able to continue, and Brown was deducted a point. After a nightmare start to the fight, Brown looked better in R2 as he started to wrestle more—which is clearly more his strength than striking on the feet. He was able to win the grappling battle in the third round as well and land a much needed submission to avoid the potential draw after the first round point deduction. It was far from a dominating performance, but Brown was able to come out ahead 43-17 on significant strikes and land five takedowns on seven attempts, before ending the fight with a third round Arm-Triangle Choke. Brown was also taken down twice on five attempts by Lockard. The finish was enough to punch his ticket to the UFC, where he made his debut six months later. All nine of his career submission wins have come either by Rear-Naked Choke (3) or Arm-Triangle Choke (6).
In his February 2020 UFC debut, Brown took on another submission specialist in Jordan Griffin, who came into the fight 0-2 in the UFC. Brown had a great start to the match, landing a clean right hand in the opening 10 seconds to the chin of Griffin, which momentarily dropped him to a knee. Ten seconds later he landed his first takedown, as Griffin attempted to defend it with an unsuccessful Guillotine Choke. The remainder of the round was spent in the rinse, wash and repeat cycle as Brown continuously took Griffin down, landing five takedowns in the round. Of concern—and even the broadcast team discussed/foreshadowed this—Brown consistently left his neck open for Griffin to attack with Guillotine Chokes as he shot for takedowns.
Brown got the fight back to the ground in the opening minute of round two, and looked to be on pace for another massive wrestling performance, but on his seventh takedown Griffin was finally able to capitalize on Brown’s reckless technique and got his arm under the neck of Brown. Despite being in side control, Griffin was remarkably able to choke Brown out of consciousness from bottom position. Griffin is notably now 1-4 in the UFC after getting robbed of a decision in his last fight. Brown finished that fight going 7 for 7 on takedowns in just under nine minutes of action, while also leading on significant strikes 32-15, total strikes 91-20 and control time 7:32-0:05. Had the fight gone the distance, Brown was on pace to land a massive 12 takedowns, 56 significant strikes, 158 total strikes and over 13 minutes of control time.
Brown most recently went up against a tough Danny Chavez, who was making his UFC debut off three straight first round KO wins. Chavez’s takedown defense was perfect in the match as he stuffed all six of Brown’s attempts. Flipping the script on Brown, Chavez went 4 for 4 on his own takedown attempts.
Brown notably fought mostly at 155 lb early in his career before dropping down to 145 lb in 2017.
Fight Prediction:
Brown will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Both of these fighters look equipped to capitalize on the deficiencies of the other. Brown looks very vulnerable to being caught with clean shots to his chin, while Kamaka really struggled to defend takedowns in his last match. So the results of this fight should hinge on where it takes place. If Kamaka can keep it standing up, he should be able to piece Brown up and potentially even land his first career knockout. However, if Brown can get back to his wrestling, he should be able to control Kamaka and either grind out a grappling heavy decision or get a finish of his own. Kamaka has just one finish in his career, so while he does look to be the superior striker, his game is more based on volume than finishes. Because of that, we think Brown will have ample opportunity to get his wrestling back in gear and attack the 37% takedown defense of Kamaka. We like Brown to pull off the upset and either get a finish in the second half of the fight or grind out a grappling heavy decision.
There’s a lot to like here. “Brown Wins ITD” at +300 looks really solid, while his moneyline at +120 is the safest bet. We also like “Brown Wins by Submission” at +500, “Brown Wins by R3 Submission” at +2900, and his R2 (+1000) and R3 (+1800) win lines. You can also hedge with “Kamaka Wins by R1 KO” at +1300.
DFS Implications:
Brown’s DFS numbers may not immediately jump out at you, as he’s coming off back-to-back losses in his only two UFC fights. However, in his second most recent fight, Brown was on his way to breaking the slate against Jordan Griffin, before Griffin landed a Guillotine Submission to steal the fight on Brown’s seventh takedown in the opening nine minutes. Brown was on pace to score 156 DraftKings points and 129 points on FanDuel in that fight, but was consistently careless with his head position on takedowns and eventually paid the price. While his last fight ended up a dud, that looked like a tough matchup for him to excel in going into the fight, so it’s not surprising. Now Brown gets a pace up match against a smaller opponent who was taken down five times on seven attempts in his last outing, and this looks like a potential explosion spot. The odds imply Brown has a 43% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish and a 10% chance to end it in R1.
Kamaka showcased his ability to score well even in a decision in his August 2020 UFC debut against Tony Kelley, where Kamaka landed 114 significant strikes and five takedowns on his way to 115 DraftKings points and 121 points on FanDuel in a high-volume win. He followed that up by showing that he similarly offers a huge ceiling to his opponents, as Jonathan Pearce scored 134 DraftKings points and 142 FanDuel points against him in a R2 KO. Kamaka’s high-paced approach to fighting has so far been a DFS goldmine for whoever wins his fights, and we have no reason to think that changes here. Both guys are capable of winning this fight, so you’ll want a decent amount of exposure to each, but Brown stands out as the superior play. Just keep in mind, the odds imply Kamaka has a 57% chance to win, a 21% chance to end it early and a 10% chance to finish Brown in R1.
Fight #7
Luana Pinheiro
1st UFC Fight (0-0)With a background in Judo, Pinheiro is making her UFC debut on a six fight winning streak, with all six of those fights ending in the first round. Pinheiro is 8-1 as a pro, with her only loss coming in a 2017 split decision in her third pro fight. Her only other fight to go the distance was a 2016 decision win in her pro debut. Her other seven fights have all ended in first round wins, with the first five coming by submission and the last two ending in KOs.
Pinheiro has been training since she was old enough to walk, and started competing at just 10 years old, as she comes from a family of black belts.
Pinheiro is coming off a R1 KO win on DWCS this past November. In a fight that lasted just 168 seconds, Pinheiro only needed to land 10 significant strikes to finish her opponent. She actually looked like she was struggling to find her range early on, as she circled her opponent looking for a way in. But when she did finally go for it she made it count, landing a combination of punches that dropped her opponent, finishing the fight with ground and pound.
Like many fighters in her position, Pinheiro has yet to face any real competition. Her opponents entered with records of: 0-0, 2-0, 2-0-1 (L), 0-0, 3-1, 6-5, 0-2, 4-2, and 8-6. So her eight wins came against opponents with a combined record of 23-16. She’ll now face a UFC veteran in Randa Markos, so it will be interesting to see how she handles the step up in competition. It’s been four years since she’s been in a fight that lasted longer than five minutes, so a potential adrenaline dump or lack of cardio is definitely a potential concern.
Randa Markos
17th UFC Fight (6-9-1)This fight had been booked for March 27th, but Markos was scratched due to COVID, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for one another.
Markos is coming off three straight losses and has dropped four of her last five. All 21 of her career fights have ended in Armbars (4-2) or decisions (6-8-1). The last five Armbars have all come in R1. Three of her four Armbar wins notably came prior to joining the UFC, in her first 5 pro fights.
Markos has only been finished in two of her 16 UFC fights and has only one early win of her own in those 16 matches. Here other 13 UFC bouts all went the distance. The only person to finish her in her last 11 fights was Mackenzie Dern, while her only other early loss in the UFC was back in 2016.
Markos notably defeated Carla Esparza in a 2017 split decision, outlanding Esparza 48-32 in significant strikes. Esparza was able to land four takedowns in the match, while Markos didn’t land any of her own. No one has ever landed more than four takedowns on Markos.
Markos has made a career out of grinding out low-volume decisions, while losing more often then she wins. In her 16 UFC fight career, she has never won two fights in a row, but up until her recent three fight skid, she had also never lost two in a row.
Fight Prediction:
Pinheiro will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage and is eight years younger than the 35-year-old Markos.
Markos should come in desperate for a win here and it would make sense for her to try and drag the fight into the later rounds at all costs. If she does get taken down, she generally is looking to lock up her opponent or hunt for Armbars. While Pinheiro has been an exciting finisher so far in her career, Markos will be far tougher to finish than anyone she’s seen in the past. We expect Markos to rely on her experience and test Pinheiro’s cardio. It would be surprising to see Markos take any unnecessary risks, and we expect her goal here will be to win a decision. While many people may be expecting a first round finish out of Pinheiro, we’d be surprised to see that happen. Look for Markos to make this one ugly and force a close decision.
If Pinheiro does get the finish, it very likely comes by R1 submission, so at +1000 you still have to like that line. You can also consider her R1 win line at +500. Similarly, Markos has a chance to land a submission of her own, so we like her submission line at +750 and her R1 submission line at +1700.
DFS Implications:
On paper, Pinheiro looks to be a great play for DFS, as she makes her UFC debut with six straight first round finishes. However, those all came against a much lower level of competition and now she’ll face her first true test. She’s still very green in the striking department, despite ending her last two fights with KOs. She generally looks uncertain on the feet early on in fights, and typically relies on Judo throws to get opponents to the mat. That makes her somewhat one-dimensional and easier for a vet like Markos to game plan against. Pinheiro's recent record, theoretical upside and yet to be determined floor, should make her a popular play in DFS, but this feels like a trap to us. She appears to be a R1 or bust play, going against a UFC veteran who’s only been finished in one of her last 11 fights. For what it’s worth, the odds imply Pinheiro has a 61% chance to win this fight, a 25% chance to end it early and a 13% chance to finish it in R1.
Markos’ grinding fighting style similarly leaves her reliant on a R1 Armbar Submission win to score well in DFS. She only has one take down in her last five fights and has never landed more than 78 significant strikes in a UFC match. She looks to grind out low-volume decisions and even at her cheaper price that’s unlikely to return value. The odds imply she has a 39% chance to win, a 14% chance to finish it early and a 6% chance to get it done in R1. We recommend treating both of these ladies as R1 or bust plays for DFS and expect this fight to likely bust in a low-volume decision.
Fight #6
Poliana Botelho
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Coming off a smothering decision loss to Gillian Robertson last October, Botelho has now lost two of her last three fights after winning seven of her first eight pro matches, which included wins in her first two UFC fights. While her last two bouts both ended in decisions, nine of her first 11 pro fights ended early. She did notably move back up from 115 lb to 125 lb for those last two fights, but fought exclusively at 125 lb before joining the UFC in 2017 when she dropped down to 115 lb and won her first two UFC fights.
In her 2017 UFC debut and first fight of her career down at 115 lb, she defeated Pearl Gonzalez in a unanimous 27-30 decision, despite Gonzalez racking up over 10 minutes of control time as she pushed Botelho up against the cage for essentially the entire fight. Botelho won the striking battle, leading 67-27 in significant strikes and 157-89 in total strikes. And even more impressively, Botelho stuffed all 15 of Gonzalez’s takedown attempts, while landing her only attempt.
Botelho followed up that win with a 33 second R1 KO win over Syuri Kondo. Botelho finished the fight with a heavy body kick that crumpled Kondo. In her final fight at 115 lb, Botelho was submitted by Cynthia Calvillo in the first round of a 2018 match. Following that loss, Botelho moved back up to 125 lb and defeated Lauren Mueller in a decision.
We didn’t see her back inside the Octagon for 18 months following the win, and when she returned she was dominated by Gillian Robertson in a smothering grappling performance. Robertson went 3 for 7 on takedowns and accrued nine and half minutes of control time, while leading in significant strikes 57-22 and total strikes 104-39. After getting dominated by grapplers in her last two losses, it’s pretty clear that’s where Botelho struggles the most. Fortunately for her, she gets a striker in her next fight.
We’ve yet to see Botelho give us a convincing win that would really give us confidence in her moving forward. Her decision win in her 2017 UFC debut came against Pearl Gonzalez, who went 0-2 in the UFC before being released after her loss to Botelho. She followed that up with a R1 KO win against Syuri Kondo, who’s gone 1-3 in the UFC and hasn’t fought since 2019 (retired?). Botelho’s third UFC win came in a decision against Lauren Mueller, who also went 1-3 in the UFC and also hasn't fought since 2019.
Botelho was originally scheduled to fight Ji Yeon Kim here, but then Kim dropped out and Mayra Bueno Silva stepped in. However, then Bueno Silva also dropped out and Carolina was announced as the new opponent on March 31st—so still with a month to prepare.
Luana Carolina
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Carolina was finished early in R1 of her last fight with a violent Kneebar that immediately looked like it could have caused lasting damage and left her writhing in pain on the mat. Those fears turned out to be true, as Carolina suffered a partial tear to her left ACL, but was able to avoid surgery—although that leaves some uncertainty to the status of her ACL now. It will be interesting to see how she bounces back from the knee injury. She was previously coming off a serious spine injury going into her last fight, so she keeps drawing the short straw with injuries.
Prior to her recent loss, Carolina had won six fights in a row, but the last three of those all ended in decisions. And before she went on DWCS on 2018, she had exclusively faced competition with little to no pro experience, who entered her fights with records of 4-1 (L), 0-0, 0-0, 2-1, 0-0.
Looking back to her 2019 UFC debut, Carolina was baptized by fire in a brawl against “Zombie Girl” Priscila Cachoeira. Carolina won a high-volume striking battle, leading in significant strikes 111-69 and total strikes 126-69. She also attempted three Guillotine Chokes and stuffed both of Cachoeira’s takedown attempts. Carolina showed the ability to land heavy head kicks in the match, but spent much of the fight circling away from action and waiting for Cachoeira to walk into kicking range. So she isn’t really the type to charge head first into a brawl.
Carolina got her shot in the UFC with a 2018 unanimous decision win on DWCS, where she outlanded her opponent 85-46 in significant strikes and 109-59 in total strikes. So decent striking volume, but not insanely high.
UPDATE: Carolina was the last fighter to weigh in and missed weight by 2.5 lb. Coming off an extended layoff and an injury, this is definitely a big concern.
Fight Prediction:
Botelho allegedly will have a 2” height advantage (debatable if you watched face-offs), but Carolina will have a 2” reach advantage.
Neither of these fighters have ever been knocked out, but both have been submitted once. However, neither really poses much of a submission threat. Carolina briefly looked for a few Guillotine Chokes during her UFC debut, but that appears to be the extent of her submission abilities. She did, however, show she can compete in a striking battle, with her most dangerous weapons being her long legs. Botelho similarly looks most dangerous with her kicks, so we could potentially see this fight play out at kicking distance. This feels like the type of matchup that could potentially turn into a brawl, although it’s unclear if Botelho could endure three high paced rounds (or Carolina after the weight miss). We like Botelho to win a striking battle here, and potential knock Carolina out for the first time in her career.
The most likely outcome here is that Botelho wins a decision, but there’s zero value in that line. So either pass on the fight or bet “Botelho Wins by KO” at +750 or “Botelho Wins by R1 KO” at +1700. UPDATE: Those lines were bet down to +600 and +1300, respectively, within hours after weigh-ins. They’re still okay but less appealing now.
DFS Implications:
Botelho is a powerful leg striker who’s struggled mightily against grapplers. Fortunately for her, Carolina is not a grappler. So we expect this to turn into a striking battle, with little to no grappling. At her price that will leave Botelho reliant on landing a knockout to return value in DFS. While Carolina has never been knocked out in her short career, between her missed weight and her questionable knee there are multiple reasons to think we could see it happen here. After the line moved heavily in Botelho’s favor, the odds imply she has a 69% chance to win this fight, a 19% chance to end it early and a 10% chance to get it done in R1.
While Carolina put up a decent score in a decision win in her 2019 UFC debut, that came in a crazy brawl against “Zombie Girl” Priscila Cachoeira, who always ends up in high-volume shootouts. Carolina spent much of the fight circling away from contact and counter striking, so her striking total was artificially inflated by her opponents aggressiveness. Since that fight, Carolina has dealt with multiple injuries and it remains uncertain how she’ll respond after her last fight lasted just 88 seconds, before she was submitted by a Kneebar that partially tore her ACL. Opting not to undergo surgery, her health remains a mystery, making this an especially high variance spot. She was also very slow to weigh-in and missed weight by 2.5 lb. After seeing a huge line move against her, the odds imply she has a 31% chance to win, a 12% chance to end it early and a 6% chance to pull off the first round win. This looks like a tough spot for her to succeed in.
Fight #5
Merab Dvalishvili
8th UFC Fight (5-2)This fight had been scheduled for December 5th, but Stamann withdrew, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for one another.
Dvalishvili has won five straight decisions after losing his first two UFC matches with a questionable split decision and a weird last second submission loss, where it looked like he was never out. A takedown tornado, Dvalishvili landed 11, 6, 5, 5, 12 and 13 takedowns in his first six UFC fights. However, then he faced the elite takedown defense of John Dodson in his last match and was only able to ground him twice on a ridiculous 20 attempts. As a one-dimensional takedown specialist with a never ending gas tank, Dvalishvili doesn’t offer much on the feet. Despite failing on 18 of his 20 takedown attempts, he did still manage to win the decision in his last match as Dodson spent the entire fight defending takedowns and never really mounted any offense of his own. Dvalishvili came out ahead on significant strikes 50-27 in what ended in a disappointing decision.
The last really good wrestler that Dvalishvili fought was Ricky Simon. Dvalishvili went 6 for 22 on takedowns, while defending 5 of Simon’s seven attempts, and won the striking battle 61-34, but Simon landed a literal last second submission to win the fight.
Dvalishvili now faces another tough test in a really good wrestler in Cody Stamann and his 80% takedown defense. No one has ever taken Stamann down more than twice in a fight, so it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Cody Stamann
9th UFC Fight (5-2-1)After withdrawing from this same matchup in December, Stamann was then scheduled to fight Andre Ewell and then Askar Askar on February sixth, but both dropped out, and then this fight was rebooked.
Coming off a short notice decision loss to Jimmie Rivera at 145 lb, where he fought his last two matches, Stamann has decided to drop back down to 135 lb, despite looking significantly better at 145 lb. He’s talked about how tough the weight cut down to 135 lb is, so he seems to prefer to fight at 145 lb. Also notable, the most dominating performance of his UFC career came in his debut, which was also at 145 lb.
His last four, and 7 of his 8 UFC fights have ended in decisions. The only exception was a R2 Kneebar submission loss against Aljamain Sterling in 2018. Stamann does have eight finishes on his record but all of those came prior to joining the UFC and five came in his first seven pro fights against far less experienced opponents. He’s a really good wrestler and has decent striking, but he’s never a threat to end fights early.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’6” but Dvalishvili will have a 4” reach advantage.
This sets up for a high level wrestling match, but could easily result in a stalemate because each guy is so talented. Both have an 80% takedown defenses and near idental takedown accuracy as well, with Dvalishvili checking in at 43% and Stamann 46%. As is often the case when two fighters both excel at grappling, it’s possible this turns into more of a striking match than you might expect, as their wrestling skills could potentially negate each other. With that said, the idea of Dvalishvili stepping into the Octagon and not attempting a million takedowns is kind of insane, and we don’t actually see him forgoing his normal game plan. We expect Stamann’s elite takedown defense to hold up for the most part and think he has a great chance to pull off the upset. We actually like Stamann to win a decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Stamann Wins by Decision” at +500. Betting on the fight to go the distance at -270 isn’t exciting, but it’s essentially free money.
DFS Implications:
Dvalishvili gets his second straight tough matchup after going on a four fight DFS slate-breaking rampage streak. He predictably struggled with takedowns against John Dodson and now gets another opponent who will be tough to takedown in Cody Stamann, who owns an 80% takedown defense. While Stamann was submitted by another elite wrestler in Aljamain Sterling, had that fight gone the distance, Sterling would have scored right around 90 DraftKings points in a decision. The field generally over values past DraftKings scoring and undervalues matchups, so we expect Dvalishvili to be over owned in this spot relative to his chances of returning value. No one has ever taken Stamann down more than twice in a fight and Bryan Caraway amazingly went 1 for 23 on takedown attempts against Stamann earlier in his career. Sterling also notably went 2 for 9. Stamann is built like a tank and is big for the 135 lb division. This definitely looks like another let down spot for Dvalishvili. With that said, the odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 16% chance to end it early and a 7% chance to finish it in R1. All of those numbers seem slightly too high if you ask us.
Stamann has failed to score above 84 DraftKings points in his last four wins, and his only exceptional DFS performance came in a decision win in his 2017 UFC debut against Terrion Ware—who’s lost six straight fights beginning with the loss to Stamann and is no longer in the UFC. Stamann landed eight takedowns and nearly seven minutes of control time to go with 124 total strikes and 94 significant strikes as he put up 126 DraftKings points and 127 points on FanDuel. There’s no chance we see that type of dominance here, but it shows you his ceiling. Based on his wrestling style, Stamann generally makes for a better play on DraftKings, where he can score from control time and ground strikes, than on FanDuel. HOWEVER, we expect him to defend a silly number of takedowns here, so this is the one exception where he actually looks like a better FanDuel play, but we think he’s usable on both sites at his price. Stamann has a legitimate shot at defending a double digit number of takedowns to help prop up his FanDuel score. If that happens, this could be one of those really weird fights where Stamann loses the fight but still scores the same or more points than Dvalishvili on FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 14% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance to end it in R1. This looks like a tough matchup for either fighter to excel, but at his price we like Stamann as a value play. We also don’t see the fight ending early, so he should have a decent floor.
Fight #4
Sean Strickland
13th UFC Fight (9-3)Following a two year layoff resulting from a motorcycle accident that left his leg in rough shape and his career in jeopardy, Strickland fought twice in a two week span last Fall in his return. In his first fight back, he took on Jack Marshman and looked somewhat tentative in his return. He did outland Marshaman 94-51 in significant strikes, but it looked like he could have easily finished the fight had he pushed harder—instead he won a decision as he berated Marshman down the stretch.
He followed up the win with a super fast turnaround against Brendan Allen just two weeks later. For whatever reason Allen decided to forgo his wrestling and compete with Strickland in a boxing match. That was clearly a terrible idea and he paid the price for it, getting knocked out in the second round.
Strickland constantly talks about how much better he performs in the gym and how his fear of failure is what’s holding him back in actual fights—ironically in between calling everyone a pussy and a loser during his press conferences. If Strickland can ever bring the same confidence to the Octagon that he brings to media day, we might see something special. He’s still a very solid striker, but he always appears to be holding back and fighting very cautiously.
With that said, three of his last four fights have ended in KOs, with the one early loss of his career coming in a 2018 R1 KO against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. That was notably the only fight in Strickland’s last 11 to end in the first round. Seven of those last 11 fights have gone the distance, with him winning five of those decisions and losing the other two to Kamaru Usman and Santiago Ponzinibbio. He has three knockout victories over those 11 fights, a pair of R2 wins in his last three matches and a third round knockout in 2016.
Previously claiming that Middleweights (185 lb) were too big for him, Strickland has fought most of his UFC career at 170 lb but moved back up to Middleweight in his 2020 return. He also fought his first two UFC fights at 185 lb where he went 2-0 with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win and another in a decision. Almost all of his pre-UFC career was spent at 185 lb for what it;’s worth.
Of Strickland’s 22 pro wins, 10 have come by KO and four by submission. All four of his submission wins were by Rear-Naked Choke. He has legitimate KO power, but is reluctant to force the issue in fights, so he generally requires a willing dance partner. His ideal matchup would be an aggressive boxer who constantly pushes forward (which Allen transformed himself into for no logical reason in their last fight). Unfortunately that’s not what Strickland gets here in Jotko.
Krzysztof Jotko
14th UFC Fight (9-4)Coming off three straight decision wins, following three straight losses, Jotko was knocked out in each of his last two losses—in R2 against Uriah Hall in 2017 and then in R3 against Brad Tavares in 2018. Now he’s coming off shoulder surgery and nearly a year layoff, so it will be important to see how he looks at weigh-ins.
Jotko’s other UFC loss came in 2014, in his second UFC fight, where he was submitted via Guillotine Choke in the second round. So three of his four UFC losses have come early, all in the later two rounds. In his nine UFC wins, he only has one finish, which was a 2016 R1 KO against Tamdan McCrory, who went 1-2 in the UFC with two early KO losses before being released in 2016.
Jotko is an uninspiring low-volume slot filler who’s sole goal in fighting appears to be not dying. Despite fighting to nine decisions with the UFC, he’s never landed more than 74 significant strikes and has only topped two takedowns once.
Looking at his entire pro career, 16 of his 26 fights have gone the distance, but he did land five KOs and a submission win prior to joining the UFC. However, at this point in his career, it seems safe to completely disregard those pre-UFC results. Jotko has gone 1 for 12 on takedown attempts in his last two fights as he went 0 for 5 in his last match, and 1 for 7 the time before that.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’1” but Jotko will have a 1” reach advantage.
Jotko is a boring decision fighter who is competing with Aleksandar Rakic for the top spot on the list of guys who “just don’t get it” when it comes to what the UFC and fans are looking for. The real question in this fight isn’t whether or not Sean Strickland wins, it’s whether or not Jotko makes it a bearable fight to watch. Jotko’s favorite pastimes include circling away from action and engaging in stagnant clinch work. This could very likely be one of those fights where you’re left screaming at your TV for Jotko to engage as he circles away from action, while Strickland slowly inches forward. When Jotko has failed to get out of the way, he’s looked very hittable and doesn’t have much of a chin, so if he gives Strickland the opportunity to stand and trade, we expect Strickland to make short work of him. However, it would make no sense for Jotko to compete in a boxing match here and we expect him to look to keep the fight at kicking distance, circle away from Strickland’s strikes and engage in the clinch when things get tight. If he can execute that game plan and avoid getting caught on the chin, then look for Strickland to win a decision here. However, if Jotko slips up then Strickland can definitely finish him at any moment and a late round KO win for Strickland would be our prediction.
The safest bet here is clearly Strickland’s moneyline, which especially makes some sense in parlays. We also alike “Strickland Wins by R2 KO” at +650 and “Strickland Wins by R3 KO” at +1300. On the off chance he lands a submission you can also just bet his R2 and R3 overall win lines at +550 and +1100 respectively without losing too much in terms of your ceiling.
DFS Implications:
Strickland lands enough volume and occasionally mixes in a takedown, that even his later round knockouts have still scored well in DFS. However, he’s not the type of fighter that can be relied on to return value in a decision, as the vast majority of his fights are spent boxing. There is a good chance he props up his FanDuel score with takedowns defended, as Jotko has gone 1 for 12 on his attempts in his last two matches, which adds to Strickland’s appeal over there. Strickland can also frustratingly grind out decisions with his methodical approach as he carefully inches towards his opponents. His floor is pretty safe, as he’s never been submitted and has only been knocked out once in 25 pro fights—which came on an unconventional Spinning Wheel Kick from Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. The odds imply Strickland has a 70% chance to win this fight, a 30% chance to end it early and a 15% chance to finish it in R1.
Jotko appears to be fighting to win decisions and ruin DFS lineups. We can’t come up with a single reason why you would want to play him, so we won’t waste your time with fluff, but we all know it’s a fight and anything can happen. The odds imply he has a 30% chance to win, which seems crazy, a 14% chance to end it early, good luck, and 6% chance to end it in R1, ha!
Fight #3
Ion Cutelaba
10th UFC Fight (4-5)After finally getting the monkey off his back—no, we don’t mean winning, just actually stepping into the Octagon—Cutelaba can finally move on from his cursed matchup with Ankalaev. After losing in a super questionable/early R1 TKO stoppage in their original February 2020 match, they tried and failed to schedule a rematch on four different occasions, but they were all canceled due to COVID. Finally, on the fifth attempt, they barely pulled it off, because even that time one of Cutelaba’s cornermen tested positive for COVID. Despite the positive test, the UFC said fuck it we’ve canceled this one too many times already. And after all that, what do we get? Essentially the exact same result we have gotten in their first matchup if the ref didn’t have such a quick trigger finger—a decisive R1 KO win for Ankalaev.
So finally released from Dagestani purgatory, Cutelaba was then scheduled to face Devin Clark in this upcoming event, but Clark withdrew for unknown reasons, but we can only assume he didn’t want to be the next fighter involved in a time loop with the COVID hulk. So in steps Dustin Jacoby on less than two weeks notice.
Cutelaba’s last six fights have all ended early, including five in R1 and one in R2. He’s gone 3-3 over that period, although two of those losses came against an extremely tough Ankalaev and the other was against Glover Teixeira, who’s preparing for an upcoming title shot.
Cutelaba came into the UFC in 2016 and was fed to submission specialist Misha Cirkunov in his debut. Cutelaba is notably the only person to take Cirkunov past the second round and only the second to make it out of R1. Although you could also argue that Cutelaba failed to capitalize on Cirkunov’s suspect chin for multiple rounds, so it’s a two way street. In the end Cirkunov did eventually get the submission win, it just took him some extra time to do it.
Following the loss, Cutelaba fought to the only two decisions of his UFC career, where he won the first and then lost the second in a 2016 match against Jared Cannonier, who had just dropped down from Heavyweight to 205 lb, and seemed to break Cutelaba mentally as he calmly walked him down with his hands by his side late in the fight. After going nearly nine full rounds in his first three UFC matches, Cutelaba then proceeded to only see the start to seven rounds over the course of his next six fights.
He started off that finishing frenzy with a 22 second 2017 R1 KO over Henrique da Silva and followed that up with another R1 KO win, this time against Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Then he was submitted by Glover Teixeira in the second round of a 2019 match, but bounced back with a R1 KO win over Khalil Rountree in 2019. Cutelaba had still never been knocked out in his career at that point and had only been submitted twice, but then he suffered two straight R1 KO losses to Magomed Ankalaev to bring his UFC record to where it stands today at 4-5.
While Cutelaba is known as a psychotic power puncher, he does have a background in Greco-Roman Wrestling, Sambo and Judo. And while he hasn’t landed a takedown in seven of his nine UFC fights, he landed six against Jared Cannonier and four against Khalil Rountree Jr. So he does have the ability to incorporate wrestling if he feels he needs to. If Jacoby starts chewing up his lead leg, it might make sense for Cutelaba to look to get the fight to the mat.
UPDATE: Cutelaba went full dickhead at face offs as he violently grabbed Jacoby by the neck and made a scene. It will be interesting to see how that intensity plays into this fight.
Dustin Jacoby
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Stepping in on less than two week’s notice, Jacoby recently won a close disappointing decision against Maxim Grishin, after landing a R1 KO in his triumphant return to the UFC, following nearly nine years away from the organization.
In Jacoby’s most recent fight, Grishin missed weight badly, tipping the scales at 210.5 lb for the 205 lb match, and looking massive on fight day. That already looked like a tough matchup for Jacoby to land a finish, so adding to the size difference likely didn’t help. Grishin started hot, landing two knockdowns in the first round, but Jacoby bounced back and appeared to win the second round. The third round was close, but all three judges gave it to Jacoby and he went on to win a unanimous decision, despite being knocked down twice in the first five minutes. Grishin appeared shocked by the results, but he should have done more in the last two rounds if he wanted to secure a victory. Grishin did come out slightly ahead on significant strikes 66-57, but Jacoby destroyed his calf throughout the fight. Grishin’s size appeared to give Jacoby a lot of trouble, but going into this next fight Jacoby will have the height and reach advantage.
Jacoby originally joined the UFC in 2011 at just 23 years old, but was let go after losing his first two fights—one in a decision and the other by a R3 Guillotine Choke. Following his departure, he went 6-3 in MMA fights with three R1 KO wins, three decision victories, one decision loss, a R2 KO loss, and a R2 submission loss. He also stepped away from MMA entirely to try kickboxing for a four year period from 2015 to 2019, where he also went 6-3—including a win over UFC fighter Karl Roberson.
Upon returning to MMA in 2019, Jacoby won a pair of decisions, including a high-volume win on DWCS this past August. In that fight, he put on an impressive striking display with 117 significant strikes landed while only absorbing 30. He also notched a knockdown and went 1 for 1 on takedowns, while impressively defending 10 of his opponents 11 takedown attempts. His striking looked remarkably improved since his 2011-2012 tape and his kickboxing experience was evident. Of some concern, he did look like he punched himself out late in the second round after starting the fight at an unsustainable pace. Despite the DWCS fight ending in a decision, Jacoby was still awarded a UFC contract.
He made the most of his newfound opportunity in the UFC and knocked out Justin Ledet midway through the first round. Jacoby was able to knock Ladet down with a series of leg kicks and then land several heavy ground strikes before smartly stepping back, forcing Ledet to attempt to return to his feet, and then finishing him with one final strike just as he got back up.
Ten of Jacoby’s 14 career wins have come early, with nine KOs and one submission. Nine of those 10 finishes came in the first round. Three of his five career losses have also come early, with a 2012 R3 Guillotine Choke, a 2014 R2 KO and a 2015 R2 Rear-Naked Choke. He’s only been knocked out the one time, which is important to reiterate going into this next fight.
In Jacoby’s first stint with the UFC he fought at 185 lb, however he’s since moved up to 205 lb in his return to MMA. Jacoby acknowledged that he probably wasn’t ready for the UFC at 23 years old and lacked the confidence required. He says he’s in a much better place now and is ready to make a run. He’s now on a four fight winning streak, although three of those ended in decisions. His last two pro MMA losses both came in the second round of Bellator fights back in 2014 and 2015.
Fight Prediction:
Jacoby will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
This sets up as a don’t blink stand up battle between two dangerous strikers. With a background in kickboxing, Jacoby throws far more leg strikes and we expect him to try and chop Cutelaba’s base out from under him. Meanwhile Cutelaba will be looking to see if he can punch through Jacoby’s skull. The wildcard will be whether or not Cutelaba incorporates any wrestling, as Jacoby is really only a threat on his feet. It would make sense if things got hairy, but it’s hard to predict what crazy people will do. Cutelaba’s intensity and power make a longer high-volume result unlikely, as only one of his last six fights has made it out of the first round, and that one ended in R2. For the past five years, you either finish Cutelaba or he finishes you. With that said, Jacoby has only been knocked out once in his career and only Ankalaev has been able to knockout Cutelaba, so a potential stalemate between these two is certainly within the realm of possibility.
We frequently see fights like this turn into duds as both fighters show so much respect to the other that barely any strikes are landed. We’re not saying that’s the most likely outcome, but it’s certainly possible. It looks like a boom or bust spot, but Cutelaba is desperate for a win after losing his last two and three of his last four, so we like his chances to get the KO. Despite all of his first round finishes, Jacoby seems like more of a volume striker than a one punch finisher, and it will take the perfect fight for him to pick Cutelaba apart without absorbing any devastating punches coming back his way.
“Cutelaba Wins by R1 KO” at +240 is probably the best bet but we don’t love the line. “Fight Ends in R1 KO” at +120 is decent. “Jacoby Wins by Decision” at +600 seems like the best value, and “Jacoby Wins by R1 KO” at +500 is the last one worth considering.
DFS Implications:
Cutelaba has proven himself to be a R1 or bust DFS play throughout his UFC career. Even in his decision loss to Cannonier, where Cutelaba landed six takedowns, he still would have scored just 88 DraftKings points had the decision gone his way. In his lone decision win in the UFC, he scored just 66 DraftKings points. However, as you would expect, he’s put up big DK scores of 131, 107 and 119 in his three R1 wins. If this fight gets past the first round then Jacoby’s leg strikes will likely wear on Cutelaba, hurting his chances for a later finish. Even if he got one, there’s no guarantee it would return value as it would likely come with very little volume—but it still could based on his price. With both fighters very reasonably priced and projected to be popular plays, this fight has all the makings for a trap. Consider it a R1 or bust spot for both guys and a solid leverage opportunity to fade it completely. With that said, Cutelaba has a 52% chance to win, a 45% chance to get a finish and a 24% chance to end it in R1. So you’ll still want to have some level of exposure, as a R1 win at his price would make him a lock to end up in winning lineups. One final note that we thought was interesting, Cutelaba was surprisingly only 14% owned in his last fight. Yes we realize he was a major underdog and was coming off a R1 KO loss to the same opponent, but that still seems low. We’re not suggesting he’ll be low owned, but maybe the field isn’t in love with this guy.
Jacoby put up a huge score in his October 2020 R1 KO of Justin Ledet in a near best case scenario outcome where he was able to land two consecutive knockdowns to finish the fight in the first round. Chasing that sort of result will get you into trouble in DFS, and Cutelaba doesn’t look like a great matchup for Jacoby’s style. Jacoby is a good striker and entirely capable of finishing lower level opponents, but he doesn’t appear to be the guy that runs through tougher competition. In situations like this we would expect him to be looking to grind out wins opposed to hunt for early finishes. He knows how dangerous Cutelaba is and Jacoby fights with an even temperament, so expect him to try and survive the initial surge before looking to land more strikes later in the fight. One potential reason for optimism in Jacoby is that Cutelaba was knocked out cold in his last match, and you never know how a fighter’s chin will respond in their next fight. Jacoby certainly has the ability to test it. As a pure striker, Jacoby needs an early finish to score well here, as he totaled just 55 DraftKings points in his recent decision win. The odds imply he has a 48% chance to win this fight, a 28% chance to end it early and a 12% chance to win in the first round. Those numbers seem fair.
Fight #2
Giga Chikadze
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Coming off his first early win in the UFC, Chikadze was teed-up UFC newcomer Jamey Simmons in his last fight for no explainable reason other than to finally get him a finish in the UFC. The line opened at -450 and was quickly bet up to -750 with an insane +125 R1 win line for Chikadze, who hadn’t finished anybody in four UFC matches. That wasn’t a fight, it was an execution. To his credit, Chikadze didn’t just piss himself and carried out his role of executioner as he dropped the axe on Simmons late in the first round with a head kick followed up by ground and pound to get the stoppage. It was such a pointless matchup, it’s hard to take much away from the finish. We all knew he could finish terrible opponents—he made a whole career out of it before joining the UFC. What we haven’t ever seen Chikadze do is finish anyone decent.
All four of his previous UFC wins ended in decisions, after the first seven victories of his career all came early. However, here are the records of his opponents going into those seven pre-UFC finishes: 0-0, 0-10, 0-13, 0-1, 0-0, 2-30, 0-1. So calling that a padded record is unfair to other fighters with padded records. Chikadze might as well have been hunting his opponents from outside the cage with a crossbow for how competitive those fights appear. Five of those seven opponents never fought again and the other two combined to go 0-4 after. To his credit, Chikadze is undefeated in the UFC, and is the only fighter to ever defeat Omar Morales, but his one-dimensional kickboxing approach lacks the diversity to win a belt—he’s not Izzy. He does have one submission win on his record, which came in a 2018 Armbar just 12 seconds into the first round, but he’s not truly any sort of submission threat.
Chikadze’s only loss in his last 13 fights came against Austin Springer in a 2018 DWCS fight, where Springer choked Chikadze out in the third round. Springer notably made his UFC debut last August and got murdered by Alex Caceres in the first round. That was notably Caceres’ only 1st round win in his last 26 fights. Chikadze's only other career loss came in his pro debut in a 2015 decision.
Chikadze lands a below average number of significant strikes and has two takedowns in six UFC fights. He also doesn’t get hit much himself. He’s never landed more than 65 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 54.
Cub Swanson
20th UFC Fight (12-7)Coming off his first early win in his last 13 fights—going all the way back to 2013—the 37-year-old Swanson has now won two in a row after losing four straight. His previous six wins all went the distance, while he was submitted in four of his last six losses. He’s been submitted seven times in his career but has only been knocked out once, which resulted from a 2009 flying knee from Jose Aldo, just eight seconds into the first round.
Swanson notably tore his ACL and meniscus in a 2019 grappling match, which kept him out of action for 14 months, before stepping back inside the Octagon against Daniel Pineda in his last match. Pineda has a history of finishing fights early or getting finished himself, and that trend continued against Swanson, who had him hurt in the first round before finishing him in the second.
We saw a ton of significant strikes landed in each of Swanson’s last two decisions (135-86 and 129-134) and he was on pace to land 100 again in his last fight. So it will be interesting to see how that translates into this next match. We’re still skeptical that we see a volume explosion, but with each guy coming off a long awaited finish, maybe we’ll see a battle of the egos that bucks the norm of what we generally see in Chikadze fights. That still seems unlikely, but it’s not entirely impossible.
In his last fight, Swanson outlanded Pineda 46-21 in significant strikes in less than seven minutes of action before getting the R2 KO stoppage. In Swanson’s 2019 loss to Burgos, he was outlanded 129-134 (8.6/8.9 SSL/min) in significant strikes. In his second most recent fight, Swanson won the striking battle 135-86 (9.0/5.7 SSL/min) against a grappler in Kron Gracie. Despite being known as a grappler, Gracie was forced into a stand up battle and went 0 for 2 on his takedown attempts.
Swanson has four submission wins on his record, but the last one came in 2009. Prior to his last win, he hadn’t finished an opponent since 2013, when he landed a R3 KO. Since then he’s gone 7-6.
Fight Prediction:
Chikadze will have a 4” height and reach advantage.
Look for Chikadze’s length to give Swanson issues finding his striking distance. Chikadze is definitely not above attacking the reconstructed lead knee of Swanson and a KO by leg strikes remains in the realm of possibility here. Swanson has been prone to getting submitted throughout his career, but has only been knocked out once, so outside of suffering another knee injury, it seems less likely that Chikadze gets another finish here. We expect him to beat Swanson in another average volume decision.
“Chikadze Wins by Decision” at +170 and “Fight Goes the Distance” at -158 are really the only bets we’re interested in here.
DFS Implications:
Swanson has just one takedown in his last six fights, while Chikadze has just two in his last six. We expect this fight to play out almost entirely on the feet, which will leave each fighter dependent on a finish to score well. There is the unlikely scenario that it turns into a shootout, in which case Swanson would still have the potential ability to return value at his lower price in a decision win, but the same cannot be said about Chikadze. With just one finish in the last eight years, it’s hard to get excited about Swanson here in a pace down spot against an opponent who’s never been knocked out. Coming off a big performance essentially assures he’ll be higher owned than he should be. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win the fight, a 17% chance to end it early and a 7% chance to finish it in R1. This definitely isn’t a spot we’re looking to play him in and we liked him going into his last fight.
Chikadze is a pure kickboxer who throws violent leg strikes, but his one dimensional fighting style makes it hard for him to score well in DFS barring an early KO. In his four UFC decision wins, he’s scored 68, 51, 70 and 68 DraftKings points. Swanson has been involved in some recent shootouts, but has still absorbed a below average number of significant strikes per minute over his career. Chikadze will need a finish to return value here. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish and 10% chance it comes in R1. Coming off a career best performance, this looks like a good spot to fade Chikadze as some people will chase the score in his recent dream matchup.
Fight #1
Jiri Prochazka
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)After landing a second round knockout in his July 2020 UFC debut against previously #7 ranked Volkan Oezdemir, Prochazka was immediately propelled into the number five spot in the Light Heavyweight rankings and also into a five round main event against an opponent in Dominick Reyes who’s coming off two straight title fight losses. So clearly the UFC believes in this kid and sees him as a potential future contender.
Prochazka came into the UFC with an established and impressive 26-3-1 record, with only two of those fights requiring the judges—a 2014 draw and a 2016 two round decision win in Rizin. Of those 26 wins, 24 were by KO, while he also had a pair of submissions earlier in his career. All three of his career losses have come in the first round, with two KOs and one submission (2012, 2013 & 2015). He’s now on a 11 fight winning streak, with nine straight KOs, including seven in R1. Amazingly, 26 of his 31 career fights have ended in R1.
Prochazka apparently turned down a UFC contract earlier in his career because he wanted to make sure he was ready to fully capitalize on the opportunity. That decision appears to have paid off as he made a huge first impression in his recent debut when he knocked Oezdemir out cold early in R2. That was only the second time Oezdemir has ever been knocked out in 22 pro fights, with the first coming against Daniel Cormier in 2018.
Prochazka has an incredibly unique and awkward fighting style. With a hands-by-his-side, non-existent striking defense, he relies on vision and head movement to avoid taking too much damage. Fighting like he’s tweaking on bath salts while trying not to piss himself, Prochazka’s psychotic hand gestures and spasmodic body movements have to be unsettling to go up against. Pair that up with his new antenna hair style and this guy is pulling out all the sharking techniques. Despite his unhinged fighting style, Prochazka is extremely dangerous and quick with his hands, as he throws from all sorts of odd angles, like he’s swinging a billiard ball in a sock.
Dominick Reyes
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Coming off the first two losses of his career—both in title fights—Reyes lost a controversial five round decision to Jon Jones and then followed it up by getting knocked out for the first time when he challenged Jan Blachowicz for the vacant Light Heavyweight belt. Reyes was notably a -255 favorite going into that second fight and now he interestingly faces an opponent who has just one fight of UFC experience, but is still favored by the odds. So clearly a ton of respect is being given to Prochazka.
After starting his pro career off with a perfect 12-0 record, Reyes took on Jon Jones in February 2020 for the Light Heavyweight belt. Reyes outstruck Jones for the first three rounds before Jones won the striking battle in rounds four and five. Jones was able to land some brief takedowns that may have swung the decision—at least if you ask him. Reyes, among others, clearly thought he won the fight as he attempted to do the math afterwards (1+1+1 < 1+1?). Reyes then took on a larger Jan Blachowicz and made the mistake of trying to stand and trade with him early in the second round. The results were devastating, as Jan’s Polish power proved to be too much and Reyes’ was finished for the first time in his career. It’s always interesting to see how fighters rebound from being knocked out, especially if it’s the first time. Oftentimes we see grapplers revert to more wrestling heavy approaches and strikers come in more cautiously—Reyes is definitely not a grappler.
Nine of Reyes’ 12 wins have come early, but now 3 of his last 5 fights have ended in decisions. Prior to his recent second round KO loss, all 13 of his pro fights had ended with either first round finishes or decisions. Reyes has just one takedown in eight UFC fights and none in the last six, but it will be interesting to see if he comes in with any sort of plan to take this fight to the ground based on how dangerous Prochazka is on the feet. The last time Reyes even attempted a takedown was against Volkan Oezdemir in 2019, where Reyes went 0 for 2. The last time he landed one was against Jeremy Kimball, who was actively trying to take Reyes to the ground at the time, which led to him taking Kimball down instead. It seems like Reyes would likely only look for a takedown if he thought he was in trouble on the feet, but it’s always possible he’ll come in and surprise everyone.
Fight Prediction:
Reyes will have a 1” height advantage but Prochazka will have a 3” reach advantage.
This sets up as a high stakes striking battle between two fighters who are similar in the sense that they both generally keep fights on the feet and do their best work in R1. However, Reyes is a more traditional striker, while Prochazka moves around like a kangaroo on acid. Despite his awkward fighting style, Prochazka looks more explosive and is far less predictable, so he’s a threat to end the fight at any moment. He does, however, leave himself incredibly vulnerable to taking damage, so one misread of a Reyes feint could be lethal. In what comes down to a battle between experience and explosiveness, this is a tough one to predict. Both guys are fully capable of finishing the other, so it will all hinge on who lands more clean shots and how their chins hold up. All of the momentum is in Prochazka’s favor, so we give him the edge, but as the odds indicate, this one is close to a coin flip. The only thing we’re comfortably predicting is that someone gets knocked out early here, but it should be a good fight.
Our favorite two bets here are that the “Fight Ends in R1, 2 or 3” at -180 and “Fight Ends in R1 KO” at +210. If you’re looking for something longer, all seven of Reyes’ career KOs have come in R1, as have both of his submission wins. All three of Prochazka’s career losses have also come in R1. So “Reyes Wins in R1” at +750 looks like decent value. If you really want to get crazy you can even consider Reye’s R1 submission line at +5000, and just hope that the KO loss has him looking to grapple early.
DFS Implications:
Prochazka is a high-volume striker who pushes the pace and rarely sees a third round—he’s been to three in 31 pro fights. For comparison, Reyes has been past the second round four times in his 14 fight career, and three of those came in his last five fights. Prochazka’s early second round KO win in his UFC debut was unfortunate timing from a DFS scoring standpoint as it minimized his volume/round bonus scoring combination. While that demonstrates how an early KO can still come up short in the scoring department (i.e. Kamara Usman last week), it’s also nowhere near representational of his scoring ceiling, and really just shows you his floor. Priced at just $8,300 on DraftKings, it’s unlikely another early knockout would be left out of winning lineups, but not impossible. The odds imply Prochazka has a 55% chance to win, a 45% chance to end it early and a 17% chance to end it in R1.
In Reyes’ last fight, Jan scored 96 DraftKings points and 112 points on FanDuel with a R2 KO. Had Reyes been the one to get the knockout at that moment he would have scored just 88 DraftKings points and 100 points on FanDuel. In his previous fight, Jon Jones won a decision and scored just 85 DraftKings points and 94 points on FanDuel. Had the decision gone his way, Reyes would have scored just 77 DraftKings points and 111 points on FanDuel—largely from the help of seven takedowns defended. So you can see that at least in those two fights, neither a second round KO nor a five round decision produced a big DFS score. One thing different in this next match is that Prochazka pushes the pace more than Jones or Jan. Prochazka was on a likely unsustainable pace to land 142 significant strikes, over the course of a 25 minute fight, and absorb 176. Hypothetically, 176 significant strikes landed in a decision win would be good for 100 DraftKings points and 126 points on FanDuel. Looking back at actual realized stats, Reyes has four first round finishes that have all scored well in the UFC (104, 108, 107 and 130 DraftKings points), but only scored 48 and 82 points in his two three-round decision wins, which extrapolated over the course of five rounds would have scored 60 and 117 points. The odds imply Reyes has a 45% chance to win, a 30% chance to finish it early and a 10% chance to end it in R1.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma