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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Miranda Maverick
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Just seven weeks removed from a nightmare performance in Canada, Maverick got dominated in the later rounds in a decision loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius. Apparently she was itching to get that bad taste out of her mouth as she stepped into this next matchup on just over two weeks’ notice after Joanne Wood dropped out. Maverick did recently say that she suffered an eye injury in that fight that seriously compromised her vision late in the match, so it’s surprising that she’s making such a quick turn around. Prior to that loss, Maverick won a decision win over a suspect Shanna Young who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released. That came just after Maverick landed a second round submission against Sabina Mazo, who was also then released. Leading up to those wins, Maverick lost a pair of decisions to Maycee Barber and Erin Blanchfield, after winning a grappling-heavy decision over Gillian Robertson and landing a post R1 TKO in her UFC debut against a terrible Liana Jojua, who has also since been released. So three of Maverick’s four UFC wins were against opponents who are no longer on the roster and the other was against Gillian Robertson, who has since dropped down from 125 lb to 115 lb. That means Maverick has zero wins against active UFC Flyweights.
Now 11-5 as a pro, Maverick has one TKO victory, six submissions, and four decision wins. Her lone TKO win came from a doctor stoppage following the first round in her 2020 UFC debut. After the first four submission wins of her career all ended in the first round, her last two occurred in the later rounds. She’s never been finished, with all five of her losses going the distance. Five of her last six fights have gone the distance (2-3). Maverick started her pro career at 115 lb before moving up to 125 lb in her third pro fight.
Overall, Maverick is somewhat well rounded, but relies more on her grappling and she wrestled in high-school and is a BJJ brown belt. She’s still just 26 years old so you would expect to be seeing growth from her as a fighter, but she definitely didn’t show any improvements in her last fight. Her striking is unexceptional, and whenever she goes against a pure striker expect her to rely heavily on her grappling, as we saw in her last two wins. In her seven UFC fights, she’s landed 13 of her 24 takedowns attempts (54.2% accuracy), while getting taken down 11 times on 19 opponent attempts (42.1% defense). She’s never landed more than 71 significant strikes in a fight and only averages 3.82 SSL/min and 2.87 SSA/min. Maverick trains at Elevation fight team, so the elevation of Salt Lake City shouldn’t be an issue for her.
Priscila Cachoeira
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Cachoeira had originally been scheduled to fight Joanne Wood, but Wood dropped out and Maverick stepped in on just over two weeks’ notice. Cachoeira’s last three booked opponents have all fallen through and she had been booked to face Karine SIlva back in April but missed weight so badly that the fight was canceled. She had also been booked to fight Sijara Eubanks back in January, but Eubanks dropped out due to weight cutting issues.
After starting out 0-3 in the UFC, Cachoeira has quietly won four of her last five fights, with three knockouts and just finished Ariane Lipski in only 65 seconds. Her only loss in her last five fights came in a 2021 first round submission against Gillian Robertson, with her second most recent defeat coming all the way back in 2019. However, her second most recent win came in a highly questionable decision over Ji Yeon Kim, where Cachoeira got outstruck 170-102, trailing in every round. Cachoeira’s other three most recent wins all came against struggling opponents, as Ariane Lipski had been finished in two of her previous three fights, Gina Mazany finished her UFC career 3-6 with five early losses, and Shana Dobson lost four of her last five UFC fights. So Cachoeira has been able to capitalize against lower level opponents, but we’ve yet to see her really notch any signature wins.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Cachoeira has seven wins by KO/TKO and five decisions. She’s never been knocked out but has been submitted twice, and has two decision losses. All six of her KO wins have come in the first two rounds, as have her two submission losses. Cachoeira has competed at both 125 lb and 135 lb, but most of her career has been spent at 125 lb and the only time she’s fought at 135 lb in the UFC was in her last fight and that was due to the fight being pushed back a week after Lipski missed weight trying to hit 125 lb and wasn’t medically cleared.
Overall, Cachoeira is a pure brawler who shows up ready to throw down every time she fights. She looks to protect her hands with her face as she averages 7.85 SSA/min (most on the slate), while also averaging 4.68 SSL/min. She’s been outlanded by her opponents in five of her eight UFC fights, losing four of those matches and arguably losing the fifth as well. In her three UFC fights to go the distance, her opponents landed 170, 107, and 111 significant strikes against her. She’s also a complete liability on the mat and is terrible off her back. She’s been taken down 9 times on 26 attempts (65.4% defense) in her eight UFC fights, while landing just one takedown of her own on three attempts (33.3% accuracy). Cachoeira has also struggled with weight cuts throughout her career, and she’s always one to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Cachoeira will have a 4” height advantage, but both fighters share a 65” reach. Maverick is eight years younger than the 34-year-old Cachoeira.
This is an obvious striker versus grappler matchup, and Maverick will have a massive grappling advantage if she can get the fight to the mat. Cachoeira will need to keep it standing at all costs if she wants to have any chance at pulling off the upset. If she can keep it standing, Cachoeira will have a puncher’s chance to land something clean and finish Maverick, but expect her to have limited opportunities before Maverick gets her down. Maverick looked so bad in her loss just seven weeks ago that we understand the gag reflex that comes along with picking her to win, but Cachoeira has never beaten anyone decent and has gone 1-3 in fights where she’s been taken down even once. That lone win came against a terrible Gina Mazany who gassed out in round two, but was dominating Cachoeira on the mat up until that point. We don’t expect Maverick to gas here since she trains at elevation, and she’s also never been knocked out. The real question for us is whether or not Maverick will be able to find a finish, and five of her last six fights have gone the distance, while she only has one submission win in the UFC. We still lean towards her finishing Cachoeira on the mat at some point, but that’s far from a certainty and a wrestling-heavy decision win for Maverick is certainly possible. Either way, we like Maverick to win and we’ll say she gets it done with a second round submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Maverick R2 or R3 SUB” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
Maverick is averaging an impressive 110 DraftKings points in her four UFC wins and put up a massive 119 point score in her last decision victory, after scoring 99 points in her previous decision win. Both of her UFC finishes were good for exactly 110 points, so she’s shown both a solid floor and ceiling in all of her wins. However, after winning two very favorable matchups against one-dimensional strikers, she looked terrible in her recent decision loss to a fellow wrestler in Jasmine Jasudavicius. While she’s often struggled when facing other grapplers, she’s done great against pure strikers, which is encouraging for this next matchup. Cachoeira is helpless on the mat (unless you count eye gouging), and Maverick should have her way with her as long as she can get this fight to the ground. The only concern is that Cachoeira is bigger than Maverick and there’s always a chance Maverick could struggle with her physicality. However, that’s a risk we’re willing to take and this looks like one of the best buy-low spots you could ask for with Maverick. The field will be wary of playing her after she threw up all over herself in her last outing, making her a great tournament option. The odds imply Maverick has a 70% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Cachoeira’s brawling fight-style is great for DFS as she’s constantly forcing the action, getting punched in the face, and looking to land knockouts. She’s also terrible off her back, which provides another avenue for opponents to score well against her. She absorbs far more strikes than she lands (4.68 SSL/min vs. 7.85 SSA/min), and doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling, which leaves her entirely reliant on striking and landing knockouts to score well. She returned DraftKings scores of 108, 87, and 128 in her three UFC knockout wins, but just 77 points in her lone decision victory. At her cheap price tag she could potentially still serve as a value play in a high-volume decision win, but she’ll be reliant on landing another knockout to really score well. This is a tough matchup for her to succeed as she squares off against a grappler, who will be looking to take Cachoeira down early and often. That will limit Cachoeira’s opportunities to land a knockout and make it tougher for her to rack up as much striking volume. Therefore we’re treating her as a KO or bust option, and she’s notably facing an opponent who’s never been finished. The odds imply Cachoeira has a 30% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Matthew Semelsberger
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Semelsberger had originally been scheduled to fight Yohan Lainesse here, but Lainesse withdrew and Medic was announced as the replacement on July 7th. After nearly landing an immediate knockout in the opening seconds of his last fight against Jeremiah Wells and then landing another knockdown early in round two, Semelsberger got taken down six times and controlled for over 11 minutes in a split decision loss. That’s the fourth straight decision that Semelsberger has been to and sixth in his eight UFC appearances. However, while Semelsberger has only been able to finish two of his eight UFC opponents, he’s landed a ridiculous nine knockdowns in those eight fights and six in his last three matches. He knocked Jake Matthews down three times in his second most recent fight as he cruised to a decision win, after knocking Alex Moreono down once, but losing a decision. Matthews had previously only been knocked down once in his first 17 UFC fights. Semelsberger has two knockouts in the UFC, which both came in the opening 16 seconds of fights against a pair of fragile foes in Martin Sano and Jason Witt. We’ve consistently seen Semelsberger exert his will on low-level fighters, but fight to close decisions against more legitimate competition.
Now 11-5 as a pro, Semelsberger has six knockouts, one submission, and four decision wins. His last three finishes all ended in first round knockouts, but the first four early wins of his career all ended in the later rounds, with three ending in round two. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has three decision losses. His two early losses both ended in the third round early in his career and no one has finished him since 2018. The first of those losses occurred at 185 lb where Semelsberger fought his first three pro fights. Following the first loss of his career he dropped down to 170 lb, where he’s pretty much stayed other than one quick trip back up to 185 lb in 2019. He even fought as high as 205 lb as an amateur.
Overall, Semelsberger has solid striking and the drive to push the pace in fights. He hasn’t shown a whole lot in terms of grappling, but he will mix it up with occasional takedown attempts and in his seven UFC fights he’s landed 7 of his 10 attempts (70% accuracy). He’s also been taken down by his opponents on 11 of their 23 attempts (52.2% defense). He has all the physical tools to be successful, with solid power and good size for the division. He averages 4.05 SSL/min and 4.21 SSA/min, although after landing 118 significant strikes in his UFC debut, he’s yet to land more than 74 in his last seven fights. However, he’s shown the ability to keep a solid pace for 15 minutes and you can’t question his heart.
Uros Medic
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Stepping into this matchup with just a few weeks to prepare, Medic is 14 months removed from a second round knockout win over Omar Morales, who’s lost three straight and four of his last five fights. Prior to that, Medic suffered the first loss of his career when he was submitted by Jalin Turner in the first round of a 2021 fight. That came just after Medic knocked out a terrible Aalon Cruz in the opening minutes of his UFC debut after landing another first round knockout on DWCS in 2020.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Medic has still never been in a fight that lasted longer than eight minutes and five seconds, with seven of his fights ending in the first round and the other two ending in round two. He has six wins by KO/TKO and two submissions. His only loss ended in a first round submission against Jalin Turner. Medic notably started his pro career at 185 lb in 2016, but dropped down to 170 lb for his second pro fight. After fighting his next four matches at 170 lb, he then dropped another weight class down to 155 lb when he went on DWCS and that’s where he’s stayed since. At 6’1” he has good size for the 155 lb division.
Overall, Medic is a one-dimensional striker who fought his entire pre-UFC career on the Alaskan regional scene facing a much lower level of competition. His aggressive approach to fighting generally forces the action, and he averages 8.14 SSL/min and 3.76 SSA/min. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he hasn’t attempted a single takedown, while his opponents got him down on one of their three attempts (66.7% defense). Both of Medic’s UFC wins came at the Apex, while he lost his only fight in front of a big crowd. Medic has solid power and is aggressive, but we haven’t been that impressed from what we’ve seen from him and he’s just a one-dimensional knockout threat who’s made the most out of favorable matchups but has never beaten anyone good. Medic is at least training down in California at Kings MMA, so maybe they can beat the Alaska out of him.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’1” and 30 years old, but Semelsberger will have a 4” reach advantage.
This sets up a fun banger between two heavy-handed strikers who come into every fight looking for an early knockout. Medic has faced exactly one decent opponent in his career and got finished in the first round of that fight. On the flipside, Semelsberger has faced several UFC veterans and dangerous opponents, and went the distance with all of them. It will be interesting to see if Semelsberger looks to grapple here against a one-dimensional striker like Medic. After getting dominated on the mat in his last fight, you have to imagine Semelsberger has been working on his wrestling to improve that glaring weakness in his game. This would be the perfect opportunity to showcase any work he’s put in, but Semelsberger is also fully capable of knocking Medic out and should have the advantage anywhere this fight goes. He only has one submission in his career and that was in his second pro fight against an 0-1 opponent, so we’d be somewhat surprised to see him lock up a submission here, but both a knockout or a decision win are in play for him. His last three knockouts have all occurred in under two and half minutes, with his last two ending in 16 seconds or less. We’ll say Semelsberger lands another first round knockout here.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Semelsberger has averaged 104 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, despite three of those going the distance. He unsurprisingly put up massive scores (126 both times) in his two first round knockouts that each came in the opening 16 seconds of fights and included the Quick Win Bonus, but he also notably scored 103 points in a decision victory in his UFC debut and then 102 points in his most recent decision with the help of three knockdowns. He’s landed a ridiculous six knockdowns in his last three fights and throws with a ton of power. Now he’s facing a one-dimensional striker who should be looking to throw down on the feet with him, and Semelsberger should have ample opportunity to land a knockout here. There’s also the possibility for him to wrestle more than expected and Medic hasn’t shown much in the way of defensive grappling. While that’s not the most likely way this fight goes, it does offer a way for Semelsberger to boost his scoring if this ends in an unlikely decision. The only time Semelsberger failed to score at least 102 DraftKings points in a win was when he faced a wrestler in AJ Fletcher and was taken down and controlled for extended periods of time. Another thing Semelsberger has going for him is that he’s never been very highly owned in tournaments and will be going against an underdog in Medic who is typically very popular due to his finishing record. The odds imply Semelsberger has a 66% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Medic has never been past the second round in his career and scored 109 and 122 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins. The only time he faced a really legitimate opponent he got submitted in the first round, and Medic 100% finishing rate says more about the caliber of opponents he’s been facing than his actual skill level. Now he’s going up against a durable, dangerous striker in Semelsberger, and this does not look like a great spot for Medic to find success. While he does have decent power and you can’t completely eliminate the possibility that he catches Semelsberger with something clean and finds another knockout, Medic will be higher owned than his implied chances of finding the finish he needs to win and he’s objectively a bad play in DFS should once again be popular at his cheap price tag. He’s nothing more than a high-owned, hail mary KO or bust play, but at his cheap price tag, if he does win expect him to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply Medic has a 34% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Jake Matthews
18th UFC Fight (11-6)Matthews had been scheduled to face Miguel Baeza here, but Baeza dropped out and Flowers was announced as the replacement nine days out.
Matthews has been on a mission to show the world how braindead he is recently, as he refuses to use his grappling against dangerous strikers. His newfound hold-my-beer style of fighting resulted in him getting dropped three times by Matthew Semelsberger in his last fight. The first of those knockdowns came a minute and a half into the first round, the second occurred in the final minute of round two, and the third was seconds into round three. It wasn’t until after that third knockdown that Matthews finally considered grappling, and his lone takedown in the match came in the final minute of the fight on just two attempts. Prior to that, Matthews took on a one-dimensional power puncher in Andre Fialho and never attempted a takedown, but did showcase his improved striking that has given him the confidence to turn his back on his grappling and knocked Fialho out in the second round. Fifteen months before that win, Matthews got submitted in the third round by Sean Brady, after Matthews won three straight decisions before that.
Now 18-6 as a pro, Matthews has five wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and six decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has two decision losses. His lone knockout loss came in the first round of a 2016 fight against Kevin Lee when Matthews was still fighting down at 155 lb. He followed that up with a decision loss, also at 155 lb, before moving back up to 170 lb in 2017, where he started his career and has stayed since. He went 4-3 in the UFC at 155 lb, with all four of those wins coming early. Since moving up to 170 lb, he’s gone 7-3 with five of his seven wins going the distance. Two of his losses at 170 lb ended in third round submissions, with the other going the distance. Nine of his last 11 fights have made it to the third round, with seven ending in decisions. He’s won five of the last six decisions he’s been to, but did lose his most recent one.
Overall, Matthews is a BJJ black belt and has always been pretty well-rounded, but looked like a completely different animal on the feet in his last two fights and clearly has been working on his striking a ton. Prior to knocking out Fialho, Matthews only had one other UFC KO/TKO, which came in a 2015 doctor stoppage following the second round. Despite already having 17 UFC fights under his belt, Matthews is still just 28 years old and appears to be transitioning from more of a grappling-heavy approach to relying on his striking. Looking at his entire 17 fight UFC career, he’s landed 23 of his 55 takedown attempts (41.8% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 9 of their 23 attempts (60.9% defense). However, after landing 22 takedowns on 53 attempts in his first 14 UFC fights, he’s only landed one one just two attempts in his last three matches. Perhaps getting knocked down three times in his last fight and losing a decision will convince him to mix in more grappling, but he can’t be counted on to make rational choices in fights and looks like a bit of a hard headed wildcard.
Darrius Flowers
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Flowers is making his short notice UFC debut 11 months after he landed a R1 TKO win on DWCS. He had originally been scheduled to make his debut against Erick Gonzalez in February, but pulled out of the fight. We didn’t see much happen in his DWCS fight before Flowers got caught in an inverted triangle and then slammed his opponent to try and get out of it, resulting in a shoulder injury that stopped the fight. Prior to that, Flowers had three fights over a three week stretch in April and May of 2022. He won a three-round decision on April 16th, then landed a second round knockout just six days later, before landing a first round knockout just two weeks after that. Flowers has a 2018 second round knockout loss to former UFC fighter Bobby Voelker, who went 0-4 with the organization back in 2013 and 2014.
Now 12-5-1 as a pro, Flowers has eight wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and three decision victories. All nine of his finishes have come in the first two rounds, with seven ending in round one. He’s been finished in all five of his losses, with one knockout and four submissions. Three of his last four losses ended in the later rounds. Flowers is just 5’9” but has competed as heavy as 195 lb in MMA and 200 lb in boxing. He seemed to struggle with weight management early in his career where he would take fights anywhere from 170 lb to 195 lb. Following a 2019 195 Catchweight loss, he had been competing at 185 lb until he dropped down to 170 lb when he went on DWCS, where his UFC debut will also be. He looks more like a 155er, and there’s been some talk about him potentially cutting to that weight at some point.
Overall, Flowers relies largely on his hands to win fights, but will mix in takedown attempts, although only landed/attempted one in his last three matches. He’s shown suspect cardio in the past, and all but one of his career finishes have come in under six minutes, with the other ending later in round two. He was also carrying more weight in past fights, so perhaps his cardio will look better now that he’s leaned out some. He’ll sporadically let his hands go in lengthy punching combinations, but overall doesn’t put up big striking totals and looks mostly like an early ko or bust type of fighter. He’s looked very prone to getting submitted on the mat, which is how his last two losses occurred. Now he’ll face a tough test in his debut against a UFC veteran.
Fight Prediction:
Matthews will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
We expect both of these two fighters to come in with a boxing-heavy approach, but they will each mix in wrestling at times. It would make way too much sense for Matthews to try and grapple against a debuting opponent who’s been submitted four times, so we can’t rely on him taking that path of least resistance. Instead, he’ll likely stand toe-to-toe with Flowers on the feet until someone gets knocked out, because that’s apparently who Matthews wants to be now. Obviously that makes for much more exciting fights and we’re certainly not complaining from a viewing standpoint, but it is strange that a well-rounded fighter would force himself to be so one-dimensional, especially in matchups that would be favorable towards him grappling. Maybe he’ll learn from his recent loss, but we’re not counting on that. Flowers has decent power, but is undersized and hasn’t done a whole lot to impress us. We think Matthews can win a pure striking battle against him and we question Flowers’ cardio, especially in a short notice fight. Give us Matthews by round two knockout here.
Our favorite bet here is “Jake Matthews R2 or R3 KO” at +900.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Matthews has averaged 92 DraftKings points in his 11 UFC wins, but has only reached 100 DraftKings points once since 2015, which was in a 2018 first round submission win. Prior to his recent decision loss, he put up his highest total since 2018 in a second round knockout that was good for 99 points. That at least shows some scoring potential, but he’s gotten away from his grappling lately and has never been a very high-volume striker, averaging just 3.09 SSL/min in his career. This would be a very favorable spot for him to look to grapple more, but the same was said about his last two matchups and he opted to keep both of those fights standing. We’ve given up on trusting him to take the path of least resistance, so not that he can’t grapple, he likely just won’t. That will make it tougher for him to return value at his high price tag, and he’ll likely need a very well-timed finish or an outlier ceiling performance to be useful. The fact that he’s facing a short notice debuting opponent is encouraging, and we do like his chances of finishing Flowers, most likely in the second round. If that comes to fruition, it may be a fine line as to whether or not he scores enough to end up in the optimal. The odds imply Matthews has a 69% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Flowers will be making his short notice UFC debut in a tough spot to succeed and hasn’t done anything to really show he belongs in the UFC. He’s been finished in three of his last nine fights on the regional scene and looks undersized at 170 lb, despite the fact he’s fought as high as 195 lb. To his credit, 9 of his 12 career wins have come in the first two rounds and he’s shown decent power in his hands, but Matthews has only been knocked out once in his career, even if he did get knocked down three times in his last fight. We’re not convinced Flowers will have the cardio to go three rounds and he appears dependent on landing a hail mary knockout in the first two rounds to win. If he is successful in doing that, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups at his cheap price tag. The odds imply Flowers has a 31% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Roman Kopylov
5th UFC Fight (2-2)After starting out 0-2 in the UFC, Kopylov has rebounded nicely with back-to-back late round knockout wins over Alessio Di Chirico and Punahele Soriano. Prior to those wins, Kopylov lost a decision to Albert Duraev, after getting submitted in the third round of his 2019 UFC debut against Karl Roberson. Kopylov struggled with inactivity early in his UFC career and there was nearly a two year gap between his debut and his second UFC appearance, and then almost another full year before his third UFC match. However, he’s gotten back on track now and this will be his third fight in the last 10 months.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Kopylov has nine wins by KO/TKO and one by decision. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once and has one decision defeat. Only one of his nine knockout wins occurred in the first round, while three came in round two, three ended in round three, and two occurred in round four. After winning a decision in his 2016 pro debut, he landed seven straight knockouts leading up to his 2019 UFC debut. His last six fights all made it out of the first round, with five of those seeing round three, but only one going the distance. His last four wins all ended in late round knockouts.
Overall, Kopylov is a crisp striker who has shown improvements in each of his UFC fights. We’ve seen his striking output increase every time he steps inside the Octagon as he continues to grow more and more comfortable. He doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling, with just two takedowns landed on four attempts (50% accuracy) in his four UFC fights, while his opponents have gotten him down on just 2 of their 19 attempts (89.5% defense). However, when he has been taken down he’s looked terrible on the mat, which has been his biggest weakness.
Claudio Ribeiro
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off his first UFC win, Ribeiro landed a second round TKO against a terrible Joseph Holmes, after getting knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut by Abdul Razak Alhassan. Prior to that loss, Ribeiro had knocked out six straight opponents with five of those ending in round one, including a 25 second R1 KO win on DWCS. Just keep in mind, he fought a lot of dubious competition before joining the UFC.
Now 11-3 as a pro, all 11 of Ribeiro’s wins have come by knockout, with eight ending in round one, two coming in round two, and the other ending in round five. His only knockout loss came in his UFC debut, while his lone submission loss came in the first round of his 2017 pro debut. His one other defeat was a 2018 decision, which is the only time he’s ever required the judges. Ribeiro fought at 170 until 2019 when he moved up to 185 lb following an uninspiring decision loss. He only weighed 181.5 lb on DWCS and 183 lb for his UFC debut, but came in at 185 lb for his last fight, so it seems like he was growing into the weight class.
Overall, Ribeiro is a one-dimensional striker who started his training in boxing before moving to Muay Thai and allegedly jiu-jitsu. He hasn’t shown much in terms of offensive grappling, but did finally attempt and land his first takedown in his last fight. On the other side of things, his opponents have gotten him down on one of their four attempts (75% defense). He can be a little wild with his striking, but when he connects he does damage. He’ll also mix in a lot of leg kicks, but often throws them blindly without setting them up first, which will catch up with him eventually when someone times one on him. We don’t trust Ribeiro’s cardio, and fighting at elevation just raises those concerns.
Fight Prediction:
Ribeiro will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This sets up as a fun striking battle between two fighters who very rarely look for takedowns. Ribeiro is generally a fast starter, but slows down later in fights, while Kopylov tends to start a little slower but finish strong. That’s a perfect recipe for Kopylov to land another late knockout when Ribeiro begins to slow down, which is what we’re expecting to see here. Kopylov by late round knockout is the play here.
Our favorite bet here is “Roman Kopylov R2 or R3 KO” at +370.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Kopylov continues to improve every time he steps inside the Octagon, and is coming off a career best performance where he scored 108 DraftKings points in a second round TKO over Punahele Soriano, despite failing to land a knockdown as the fight was stopped before he could. Kopylov excels at landing late finishes, with his last four wins all coming by late round knockout. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s had cardio issues in the past in a fight that will take place at elevation and this looks like a perfect opportunity for Kopylov to land his third straight late round knockout. The one concern with him is that he doesn’t offer much of anything in the way of grappling, so he’ll be entirely reliant on striking volume and landing a knockout to score well. At his high price tag, that could make it tougher for him to return value with a third round finish, and he only scored 80 DraftKings points in his last third round knockout. The odds imply Kopylov has a 64% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Ribeiro is a one-dimensional striker who offers very little in terms of grappling and relies on landing knockouts to win fights. All 11 of his career victories have come by knockout, with eight of those 11 wins coming ending in round one. However, his most recent finish did come in the second round, and Ribeiro was still able to score an impressive 110 DraftKings points in that win. Just keep in mind, that came against a terrible Joseph Holmes and now Ribeiro will face a much tougher test as he squares off against a seasoned striker in Roman Kopylov, who’s never been knocked out in his career. This looks like a good sell high spot on Ribeiro and we’ll let the rest of the field chase his recent success. He looks like nothing more than an early KO or bust play in a bad matchup. The odds imply Ribeiro has a 36% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
CJ Vergara
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Vergara was narrowly able to survive the first round in his last fight against Daniel Lacerda, with the help of a very long leash from the ref as Vergara sprinted away from his opponent after getting dropped twice and nearly knocked out. Many referees might have stopped the fight, but Vergara arguably did just enough to prevent Jason Herzog from jumping in. Lacerda predictably gassed out after round one and Vergara finished him with ground and pound in round two. Prior to that, Vergara got submitted in the second round by Tatsuro Taira, after winning a split decision over Kleydson Rodrigues in his first UFC win. Leading up to that win over Rodrigues, Vergara lost a close decision to Ode Osbourne in his November 2021 UFC debut. Before making his UFC debut, Vergara knocked out five straight opponents, with four of those finishes coming in the later rounds, followed by a first round knockout on DWCS to secure his spot on the roster.
Now 11-4-1 as a pro, Vergara has seven wins by KO/TKO and four decision victories. Two of those knockouts came in round one, three ended in round two, and two ended in round three, with five of his last six finishes occurring in the later rounds. Both of his early losses ended in rear-naked chokes (R1 2018 & R2 2022), while he also has two decision losses on his record. One of those decision defeats was a split-decision against UFC fighter Jonathan Martinez (before they joined the UFC) and the other occurred in his UFC debut. He’s often struggled to hit 125 lb and has multiple weight misses on his record, while he’s also competed up at 135 lb some in the past in addition to having multiple Catchweight fights. He missed weight in two of his first three UFC fights and is always a guy to monitor closely at weigh-ins.
Overall, Vergara looks to be more or less of a one-dimensional striker who likes to push the pace, but doesn’t offer a ton in terms of offensive grappling, although did unsuccessfully look for a submission in his last fight. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s been taken down seven times on 25 opponent attempts (72% defense), while he failed to attempt even a single takedown of his own. While he nearly got knocked out in the first round of his last fight, he’s been pretty durable overall and has survived against several dangerous strikers. He doesn't look like a very explosive athlete or an especially talented fighter, but he’s got some dog in him and shows up ready to throw down.
Vinicius Salvador
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Salvador will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss in his recent UFC debut against a tough Victor Altamirano, which was just the second time he’s required the judges in his career. Prior to that loss, Salvador landed four straight knockouts in the first two rounds, with the most recent of those coming in a wild second round finish on DWCS where Salvador landed three knockdowns against a terrible Shannon Ross. Salvador is a kill or get killed type of fighter and he’s just 5-4 in his last nine fights, but always comes to put on a show. His second most recent loss was a 2019 R2 TKO against Jafel Filho, who’s now 1-1 in the UFC.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Salvador has 13 knockout victories and one submission win. Thirteen of his 14 wins occurred in the first two rounds and he’s only seen the third round three times in his career (1-2). He has nine first round finishes, four in round two, and one in round three. He’s also been knocked out twice, submitted once, and lost both of the decisions he’s been to. Salvador turned pro in 2014 and has bounced between 125 lb and 135 lb throughout his career, but appears content with staying at 125 lb for now. A lot of his wins have come against dubious competition, with three of his last five wins coming against opponents making their pro debuts.
Overall, Salvador is a wild brawler with a background in jiu-jitsu and boxing. He grew up training with Amanda Ribas in Brazil and even she calls him crazy, which says a lot. He has pretty solid power and throws a lot of big looping punches. Despite his jiu-jitsu background, his grappling leaves something to be desired and he hasn’t looked great on the mat from what we’ve seen from him. Between his DWCS match and his recent UFC debut, he landed just one of his seven takedown attempts (14.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on three of their 23 attempts. He relies on landing knockouts to win fights and now he’s facing an opponent who we’ve seen hurt, but has never been knocked out.
UPDATE: Salvador missed weight by 2.5 lb!
Fight Prediction:
Salvador will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also five years younger than the 32-year-old Vergara.
This should be a fun fight between two strikers who always come in looking to land knockouts. Vergara looks more prepared to fight three hard rounds and tends to find his finishes later in fights, while Salvador is a little less durable, doesn’t have as good cardio, and is looking to finish opponents earlier in fights. Salvador is the taller and longer fighter, but throws so many looping shots that he doesn't really maximize his length, which should allow Vergara to find his range more easily. Salvador has a very similar frame to Ode Osbourne, who Vergara lost a close decision to in his UFC debut. Both guys are 5’7” southpaws, and Osbourne has a little bit of a longer reach at 73” compared to the 70” reach of Salvador. Osbourne is also a fast starter like Salvador, but tends to slow down later in fights. While Vergara narrowly lost to Osbourne, that should have been a good learning experience for him and he did finish ahead in striking in that fight. We haven’t been that impressed by Vergara’s finishing ability, but it’s tougher to question his will to win. As long as he doesn’t get knocked out early by Salvador, we like Vergara’s chances of taking over down the stretch and either landing a late finish, or more likely winning a close decision. Salvador already has some cardio concerns and fighting at elevation may be more of a hindrance to him than Vergara. We’ll say Vergara wins a 29-28 decision in an exciting fight that comes close to seeing a knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Vergara R3 or DEC” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Vergara is coming off his first early UFC win in a crazy fight where he was nearly finished in the first round at multiple points. He scored 111 DraftKings points in that second round TKO win, but keep in mind it came against Daniel Lacerda, who turns into a pumpkin after four minutes and is 0-4 in the UFC with four early losses. Prior to that, Vergara got submitted by Tatsuro Taira after fighting to a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights and he only scored 83 DraftKings points in his one other UFC win, which ended in a split decision. He hasn’t shown a ton in the way of scoring potential and hasn’t attempted a takedown in any of his UFC fights or his DWCS match. That leaves him reliant on landing a knockout to score well. Working in his favor Salvador is an aggressive brawler who’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and rarely makes it to the judges. That raises the scoring potential across the board in this matchup, but we won’t be surprised if this is a better real life fight than in DFS and Vergara wins a close decision and fails to crack tournament winning lineups. With that said, both guys are live to land a knockout, and we’re expecting an uptempo striking battle where even a later round finish would likely score well, so it’s kind of a tricky spot to nail down. The odds imply Vergara has a 57% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Salvador is coming off a decision loss in his UFC debut where he only scored32 DraftKings points as he spent most of the match trying to defend the 22 takedown attempts of Victor Altamirano. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s never attempted a single takedown in the UFC, so Salvador should be able to get his striking going more. All 14 of his career wins have come early, with 13 ending in knockouts, which presents clear scoring upside for him. However, Vergara has never been knocked out, so at least on paper it doesn't look like the best matchup for Salvador to find a finish. We also have concerns with Salvador’s cardio at elevation, leaving him more reliant on landing a knockout in the first half of this fight before he potentially tires out. While it’s certainly not impossible he hands Vergara the first knockout loss of his career, it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in that happening. Nevertheless, if Salvador does pull off the upset, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups at his cheap price tag. The odds imply Salvador has a 43% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Gabriel Bonfim
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Bonfim kept his perfect record intact in his recent UFC debut when he locked up a guillotine on Mounir Lazzez in just 49 seconds into the first round. That was Bonfim’s third straight first round submission winn and he also locked up a first round submission on DWCS just before that to secure his spot on the UFC roster. That victory on DWCS came against a massive 6’5” Trey Waters, who recently won his own UFC debut. Just before going on DWCS, Bonfim won the LFA Welterweight belt in a 79 second submission victory, and it’s been two years since Bonfim has seen a second round. Bonfim has finished all 14 of his pro opponents and he’s only even been to the third round twice in his career. One of those times was in the LFA Welterweight Grand Prix where rounds were only three minutes long and only once in his career has he been in a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes.
Now 14-0 as a pro, Bonfim has three wins by KO/TKO and 11 submissions. He has seven first round finishes, five in round two, and two in round three. While he currently fights at 170 lb, Bonfim turned pro in 2014 at 135 lb when he was just 17 years old before moving up to 155 lb later that year. He then moved up to 170 lb in 2019, where he’s remained since.
Overall, Bonfim is a well rounded fighter who started boxing when he was 14 before he started training in MMA a few years later. In addition to working with his brother, Bonfim is a training partner of Vicente Luque. Bonfim has crisp striking and fast hands as he seamlessly stitches combinations together. Despite the majority of his wins coming by submission, he started out striking before adding jiu-jitsu to his game. That makes him a very dangerous fighter to deal with, and he’s a threat to finish fights both on the feet and the mat. Between his DWCS match and his recent UFC debut, he landed his only takedown attempt and defended the only attempt against him. Because he ends all of his fights so quickly, we still don’t really know what his cardio will look like in a 15 minute war, but he’s shown no signs of fatiguing from what we’ve seen from him.
Trevin Giles
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Coming off a close split-decision win over Preston Parsons, Giles nearly got finished in the first round of that fight but was able to survive and squeak out a close decision in front of his home crowd. Parsons took Giles down three times and finished with three official submission attempts, while controlling Giles for over five minutes. Prior to that, Giles took part in one of the worst fights of the year in a decision win over Louis Cosce, where Giles finished ahead in significant strikes just 25-10 in a painfully uneventful match. The two guys basically stared at each other for the first two rounds before Giles landed two takedowns in round three and Cosce also landed one. Leading up to his recent pair of low-volume decision wins, Giles got knocked out in the first round of his Welterweight debut against Michael Morales, after getting knocked out just before that in his final fight at Middleweight by Dricus Du Plessis. Those are the only two times Giles has been knocked out in his career, but he’s also been submitted twice in the UFC, both times by guillotine. Seven of his 11 UFC fights have ended early (3-4), but his last three wins all went the distance.
Now 16-4 as a pro, Giles has six wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been finished in all four of his losses, with two knockouts and two submissions. Both of his submission losses came by R3 guillotine choke, while both of his KO losses came in the opening round and a half. After spending almost his entire career at 185 lb, and even taking a fight all the way up at 205 lb in his UFC debut, Giles moved down to 170 lb for his last three fights. Thirteen of his last 14 fights have seen the second round, with 10 making it to round three, and five requiring the judges.
Overall, Giles is a patient striker who only averages 2.99 SSL/min and likes to keep his hands low. He’s a BJJ brown belt and will mix in occasional takedown attempts, but after landing all five of his attempts in his UFC debut, he’s only landed six of his last 15 attempts in his most recent 10 fights, failing to land more than two takedowns in any of those matches. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down by his opponents 11 times on 41 attempts (73.2% defense). It’s been almost three years since Giles finished anybody and he’s done nothing to impress us since dropping down to 170 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Bonfim will have a 1” height advantage, but Giles will have a 2” reach advantage. Bonfim is five years younger than the 30-year-old Giles.
Both of these two are fairly well rounded, but Bonfim has looked better everywhere, and Giles has been the opposite of impressive lately. We expect Bonfim to lead the dance from the start and he has the ability to knock Giles out or submit him. Bonfim has a tendency to hurt opponents with his boxing but then finish them on the mat, so it will be interesting to see if that continues here. Giles nearly got submitted in the first round of his last fight and has been knocked out twice and submitted twice all in his last nine outings. If Bonfim’s history is any indicator, another first round submission is the most likely outcome, but a knockout also won’t be surprising and Giles has been knocked out in the first two rounds in each of his last two losses. Either way, we like Bonfim to finish Giles in the first two rounds, most likely in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -136.
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DFS Implications:
Bonfim is undefeated as a pro with a 100% finishing rate and scored 119 DraftKings points with the help of the Quick Win Bonus in his recent first round submission in his UFC debut. He’s shown both crisp striking and dangerous grappling, but his background is in boxing and he generally comes in looking to hurt opponents on the feet and then finish them on the mat. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s been finished in all four of his losses and there’s no reason to think Bonfim can’t land another finish here. While his fights rarely last very long, he tends to set a high striking pace that looks beneficial for his scoring potential, although Giles is a super low volume striker who only averages 2.99 SSL/min and 2.09 SSA/min. That has the potential to slow things down, but it remains to be seen who will dictate the pace. The only downside with Bonfim is that his recent scoring explosion combined with his perfect record will result in him being popular, but he clearly has a ton of upside. The odds imply Bonfim has a 74% chance to win, a 61% chance to land a finish, and a 36% chance it comes in round one.
Giles has failed to top 92 DraftKings points in any of his last 10 fights and scored just 73, 58, and 51 DraftKings points in his last three wins, which all ended in low-volume decisions. He only has one finish since 2017, which was a 2020 R3 TKO over Bevon Lewis that only scored 92 DraftKings points. Giles will occasionally mix in a takedown or two, but only averages 2.99 SSL/min and has very limited upside and relies on landing a rare finish in the first two rounds to score well. Even at his cheap price tag, it’s hard to have much interest in playing him and he’s looked bad since dropping down to 170 lb. He’s nothing more than a hail mary finish or bust option in a bad spot and the only reason to consider him in tournaments is his low ownership. The odds imply Giles has a 26% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Kevin Holland
19th UFC Fight (11-6, NC)Holland is three and a half months removed from knocking out Santiago Ponzinibbio in the third round, and also won both of the first two rounds in that fight. That snapped a two fight skid, and Holland’s corner stopped his previous fight after the fourth round as Holland was struggling to defend himself against Stephen Thompson after breaking his hand earlier in that December 2022 main event. That was the first KO/TKO loss of Holland’s career, however, just prior to that he got submitted in the first round by Khamzat Chimaev. Following the loss to Chimaev, Holland casually announced his retirement from MMA, but his ride into the sunset was brief, as he then accepted his next fight just a few weeks later. Leading up to the pair of losses, Holland notched back-to-back second round finishes, after dropping down to 170 lb for the first time in the UFC. The move in weight was prompted by three straight defeats on the mat in 2021, although the last of those was overturned to a No Contest due to an accidental clash of heads against Kyle Daukaus that began the finishing sequence. Regardless of the official outcome, it had become clear that Holland didn’t stand much of a chance against grapplers at 185 lb.
Now 24-9 as a pro, Holland has 14 wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and four decision wins. Of his 14 knockout wins, eight came in round one, two ended in round two, and four occurred in round three. He has one TKO loss, three submission defeats, and five decision losses. He would have four submission losses on his record, but a 2021 R1 submission loss to Kyle Daukaus was ruled a No Contest after an accidental clash of heads began the finishing sequence. Holland started at 170 lb when he turned pro in 2014, but would take fights anywhere from 170 lb to 195 lb. He began settling in at 185 lb in 2016, although did drop back down to 170 lb for a decision loss in 2017. However, after starting 8-4 plus a No Contest in the UFC at 185 lb, Holland dropped back down 170 lb in early 2022. He’s since gone 3-2, but one of those losses was at a 180 Catchweight against Chimaev, so Holland is 3-1 in the UFC at 170 lb. While all five of his fights have ended early since he dropped down to 170 lb, four of those made it out of the first round, with the one exception being his R1 submission loss to Chimaev.
Overall, Holland is a second degree black belt in Kung Fu and primarily a striker. He’s rangy, powerful, and dangerous on the feet, in addition to being very durable. While his defensive wrestling has clearly been his biggest weakness, he is also a BJJ black belt and does have some submission abilities. Most of Holland’s UFC losses have come on the mat and Stephen Thompson is the only fighter to defeat him in a striking battle, and Holland broke his hand early in that fight. While he doesn’t look to take fights to the mat very often, Holland has landed 12 takedowns on 29 attempts (41.4% accuracy) between his 18 UFC matches and his DWCS appearance. However, he’s only landed a takedown in one of his last seven fights. On the other side of things, his opponents have gotten him down on 43 of their 87 attempts (50.6% defense). In Holland’s last 19 fights, the only opponent to unsuccessfully try to get him down was an undersized striker in Joaquin Buckley, who was making his short notice UFC debut. Holland is 6-5 in UFC fights where he’s been taken down (not counting the No Contest where he got taken down and submitted), but 5-1 when his opponents fail to get him down. Of those five losses where he gave up at least one takedown, three went the distance and two ended in submissions. Now he’ll face another grappler here.
Michael Chiesa
18th UFC Fight (11-6)It’s been 20 months since we last saw Chiesa inside of the Octagon, when he lost a three-round decision to Sean Brady in late 2021. He suffered a back injury in early 2022 that kept him on the sidelines for a while, and then had been booked to face Li Jingliang in April 2023, but Jingliang got injured and pulled out, so Chiesa was forced to wait a bit longer. Three months before he lost to Brady, Chiesa got submitted by Vicente Luque, and the last time Chiesa won a match was in a January 2021 five-round decision over Neil Magny. That marked Chiesa’s fourth straight win after he moved up from 155 lb to 170 lb in 2018, with the last three of those wins going the distance. The only time Chiesa has finished anybody at 170 lb was when he submitted Carlos Condit in the second round of a 2018 fight in Chiesa’s first fight up at 170 lb. Condit notably finished his career with six submission losses.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Chiesa has 10 submission wins and six decision victories. His last five submission wins all came in round two, after the first five of his career ended in round one. He’s been knocked out once (R2 2014), submitted four times, and has just one decision loss, which was in his last fight against a fellow grappler. All five of Chiesa’s early losses occurred in the opening two rounds, with two in round one and three in round two. Chiesa spent the first 10 years of his pro career down at 155 lb, before moving up to 170 lb for his last six fights (4-2).
Overall, Chiesa is a pure grappler/wrestler, who’s never been involved in a high-volume striking affair and only averages 1.88 SSL/min and 1.67 SSA/min. He pumps out his jab in space as a range finder, but isn’t a threat to knock anybody out and only uses his striking to set up takedowns. In his six fights since moving up to 170 lb, he’s landed 21 of his 27 takedown attempts (77.8% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 14 attempts (50% defense). Now 35 years old, coming off an injury and a long layoff, and on a two fight skid, it remains to be seen if we’ll see a fall off in Chiesa’s game or if he’ll look the same as in past fights.
Fight Prediction:
Holland will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, in addition to being five years younger than the 35-year-old Chiesa.
This is your classic striker versus grappler matchup and it’s always hard to have much confidence in Holland anytime he’s facing a wrestler. However, the 35-year-old Chiesa is coming off an injury and long layoff and hasn’t won a fight since early 2021, so it’s hard to know exactly how he’ll look here. You may hear people talk about how Holland’s defensive wrestling has improved since he dropped down to 170 lb and technically they’re not wrong. His 50% career takedown defense improves to 53% if we just look at his 170 lb matches. However, all three of his 170 lb opponents who tried to take him down all landed exactly two of their attempts, although Holland still won two of those three fights. For as much of an advantage as Chiesa will have on the mat, Holland is lightyears ahead of him in terms of striking and this fight will be ugly for Chiesa for anytime it’s on the feet. While Holland has been prone to getting submitted at times, he’s still a BJJ black belt and Chiesa only has one submission win since moving up to 170 lb. It won’t be that surprising to see Chiesa take Holland’s back and lock up a rear-naked choke, but he’s been grinding out wrestling-heavy decisions in his last three wins and that seems a little more likely. Holland is still a very dangerous opponent and capable of both knocking Chiesa out or submitting him, but we like Chiesa’s chances of relying on his wrestling to grind out another decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Chiesa DEC” at +380.
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DFS Implications:
Holland is reliant on landing well timed finishes to score well in DFS, as he’s only landed two takedowns in his last seven fights and averages just 4.12 SSL/min. He only scored 82 DraftKings points in his recent third round TKO win, and only 88 points in a round two submission in his second most recent win. The only time he’s topped 88 points in his last eight fights was in a second round TKO win over Alex Oliveira in early 2022, where he scored 101 points on DraftKings. He averaged 81 DraftKings points in his three UFC decision wins, putting up scores of 84, 86, and 73. This will be his 19th UFC appearance and he’s only hit the century mark four times on DraftKings. His biggest weakness has been his defensive wrestling and now he’s going against a one-dimensional wrestler who’s entire game plan will be to take Holland down and control him while looking for submissions. That will further limit Holland’s ability to score well unless he finishes Chiesa early in this fight, and he likely needs to end things in the opening five minutes to really score well. Holland’s reasonable price tag does potentially keep him in play with a second round finish, but that would likely require a lower scoring slate as well. The odds imply Holland has a 57% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Chiesa has averaged 101 DraftKings points in his four wins since moving up from 155 lb to 170 lb in 2018, despite three of those going the distance, but is now coming off a 20 month layoff following a back injury and also lost his last two fights. At 35 years old, Chiesa is also starting to get up there in age and no longer relies on fighting as his sole source of income, as he’s a regular fixture on the ESPN broadcast team. So it’s fair to question if his motivation is as high as it once was, but nevertheless, this looks like a great stylistic matchup for him. Holland’s biggest weakness (defensive wrestling) lines up perfectly with Chiesa’s biggest strength, which is his ability to get opponents down and control them, while hunting for submissions. Chiesa was impressively able to out wrestle a high-level, but somewhat undersized, Rafael Dos Anjos in a 2020 decision win, so there’s no reason to think he can’t find similar success against Holland. Chiesa has been prone to getting submitted himself, so there’s always a chance Holland could snatch up his neck during the grappling exchanges the way Vicente Luque did in Chiesa’s second most recent loss, but Holland only has one submission win in his last 16 fights and that came after he already had Time Means rocked. Obviously Chiesa will need to be very careful on the feet, as he has zero chance of competing with Holland in a striking battle, but we like his chances of getting this fight to the ground and grinding out a wrestling-heavy decision win that scores decently on DraftKings. However, he’ll be entirely reliant on locking up a submission to score well on FanDuel. Based on how obviously favorable this matchup is for Chiesa, we expect him to be one of the most popular underdogs on the card, which does lower his tournament appeal some. The odds imply Chiesa has a 43% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Bobby Green
22nd UFC Fight (10-9-1, NC)Green’s last fight ended in an unfortunate No Contest after he torpedo head butted Jared Gordon to begin the finishing sequence of a late R1 knockout. Leading up to that, Green suffered back-to-back KO/TKO losses to Drew Dober and Islam Makhachev. Green was setting a crazy pace against Dober before he got finished, as he outlanded Dober 73-34 in significant strikes in just a round and a half. Prior to the pair of early losses, Green had been extremely durable and hadn’t been finished since 2016 when Dustin Poirier knocked him out in the first round. Green’s last win was a February 2022 decision victory over Nasrat Haqparast, where Green landed a career best 188 significant strikes. That came just after Green knocked out a washed up Al Iaquinta in the first round, which is Green’s only finish in his last 18 fights dating back to a 2013 R1 TKO over James Krause. Leading up to the KO over Iaquinta, Green had fought to 10 straight decisions (4-5-1).
Now 29-14-1 as a pro, Green has 10 wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and 11 decision victories. He has four KO/TKO losses, two submission defeats, and eight decision losses. While four of his last five fights have been stopped early, he fought to 10 straight decisions just before that.
Overall, Green is a high-volume striker (5.97 SSL/min) who likes to put on a show, but rarely ends fights early. His hands-by-his-side fighting style provides a unique look for opponents to deal with and makes it tough to see Green’s punches coming and also easier for him to defend takedowns. Green has always been one to feed off the crowd and tends to shine in the spotlight, and both of his last two wins were on PPV cards, where he put on very impressive performances. His last three fights were all at the Apex, where he failed to notch a win, but now he’ll be back in front of a packed arena. With a high school wrestling background, Green is a capable grappler with a solid 72% takedown defense. In his last six fights, Green failed to land any of his five takedown attempts, while his opponents only got him down once on four attempts, which came at the hands of Islam Makhachev.
Tony Ferguson
22nd UFC Fight (15-6)Ten months removed from a fourth round submission loss to Nate Diaz, the 39-year-old Ferguson has lost five straight fights but refuses to hang it up and still insists he’ll be a world champion. Clearly delusional, Ferguson tried moving up to 170 lb for his last match, but will now be returning to 155 lb. Ferguson was finished in three of his last five losses, although two of those finishes came in the championship rounds of five-round fights. It’s been over four years since Ferguson won a fight, going back to a 2019 R2 TKO over Donald Cerrone.
Now 25-8 as a pro, Ferguson has 12 wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has four decision losses. His last 12 fights have all made it past the first round, with seven seeing a third round and four going the distance. Ferguson started his career at 170 lb before moving down to 155 lb in 2011, following his UFC debut. All but two of his UFC fights have been at 155 lb.
Overall, Ferguson is a shell of his past self and we’ve seen him get dominated on both the feet and the mat in his current losing streak. His body has taken insane abuse, and his once legendary durability is finally giving out. While Ferguson is a jiu-jitsu black belt with a background in wrestling and a dangerous submission threat, he’s only landed one takedown in his last 12 fights (1 for 8 on his attempts). It’s just getting sad at this point that he continues to fight and hopefully the UFC forces him into retirement soon, because clearly he just doesn’t know when to quit.
Fight Prediction:
Ferguson will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. Green is three years younger than the 39-year-old Ferguson.
While Ferguson has historically been very durable and Green has been a decision grinder, the even money FGTD trap line tells you everything you need to know here. There are two versions of Bobby Green. Apex Bobby Green and PPV Bobby Green. We’re finally getting to bring back PPV Green for this matchup and Ferguson does not take damage the way he used to. While Green doesn’t have a ton of power, we expect him to land a ton of volume and wear Ferguson down with an accumulation of damage. It’s always hard to predict Green will find a finish considering he only has one since 2013, but we actually think there’s a good chance he lands enough volume that Ferguson will cover up and the fight will be stopped in the later rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Bobby Green Wins and Over 1.5 Rounds” at -165.
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DFS Implications:
Green has averaged 94 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins, despite seven of those going the distance. While seven of his last eight wins have come in decisions, he’s still managed to score 98 or more DraftKings points in his last four victories. His most inspired performances have come in front of live crowds, and after three straight fights at Apex, Green will finally get to fight in front of a packed arena again here. Green averages 5.97 SSL/min and the last time he fought in front of a crowd he landed a career best 188 significant strikes, following his first finish since 2013 on another PPV card. Ferguson is a walking corpse who should have retired years ago and this looks like a great matchup for Green to showcase his striking. His high price tag will keep his ownership lower and on a slate where things have the potential to get chalky, Green looks like a great differentiator piece in tournaments. The odds imply Green has a 75% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Ferguson has lost five straight fights and looks worse every time we see him. He’s had 10 more months to rot on the shelf and it’s hard to imagine he’ll suddenly look better here at 39 years old and cutting back down to 155 lb. While he showed a ton of scoring potential earlier in his career, you’re just chasing ghosts at this point if you play him. With that said, he’s the cheapest fighter on the card and Green only has one finish since 2013. So if Ferguson is less deceased then we make him out to be and can go three hard rounds with Green, it’s not impossible he could remain in play even in a loss if we see a slate where no more than one to two underdogs win. However, we’d be shocked to see Ferguson actually win this fight, so his path to being useful is incredibly narrow. The odds imply Ferguson has a 25% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
17th UFC Fight (10-6)Fresh off a decision win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta, De Lima has won two straight and four of his last five fights. In his last fight, De Lima destroyed the lead leg of Cortes-Acosta with 28 landed leg strikes, while also taking him down three times and controlling him for five fights. Prior to that, De Lima locked up his first submission win since 2016 when he finished Andrei Arlovski in the first round with a rear-naked choke after knocking him down with a flurry of punches. Just before that he suffered his only loss in his last five fights in a close decision against Blagoy Ivanov, after knocking out Ben Rothwell in the first round and grinding out a wrestling-heavy decision win over Maurice Greene. De Lima’s last six fights have alternated between first round finishes (2-1) and decisions (2-1). While De Lima’s last loss came in a decision, his other five UFC defeats all ended in submissions in the first two rounds. The most recent of those submission losses was in early 2020, when Alexander Romanov choked him out in the first round.
De Lima worked his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter Brazil in 2014, where despite getting submitted by Antonio Carlos Junior in his third fight on the show, he still got the chance to make his UFC debut just a couple of weeks later. He was competing as a somewhat undersized Heavyweight at the time, and tipped the scales at just 235 lb for his debut, which he won with a lightning fast 20 second R1 KO. He then dropped down to Light Heavyweight for his next six fights, where he went 3-3, before moving back up to Heavyweight in 2018 after he missed weight by four pounds in back-to-back fights trying to make Light Heavyweight. All six of his fights at Light Heavyweight ended early, including five in round one and one in round two. After fighting at 235 lb in his UFC debut at Heavyweight, De Lima shot up to 253 lb in his 2018 return to the weight class and has recently been as heavy as 264.5 lb. In his nine fights since returning to Heavyweight (6-3), De Lima has fought to four decisions (3-1), has landed two first round knockouts, one first round submission win, and has been submitted twice (both times in under 1.5 rounds).
Now 21-8-1 as a pro, De Lima has 14 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. Despite being a BJJ black belt De Lima has been submitted in five of his eight pro losses and looks helpless off his back. He’s also been knocked out once (R2 2012) and has two decision defeats. He’s won three of the last four decisions and prior to losing the decision to Ivanov in 2022, he hadn’t lost a fight that had gone the distance since 2011. Most of De Lima’s UFC wins have come against pretty questionable or aging competition, most of whom never fought again in the UFC, but he’s slowly been working his way into bigger name fights recently.
Overall, De Lima’s fight strategy appears to be to look for knockouts early in fights before settling into riding out top position on the mat. However, when he gets reversed or taken down himself it almost always ends up with him getting submitted and he’s terrible off his back. He’s a fast starter with bad cardio and tires out late in fights, and the elevation in this next match could just accentuate that. He hasn’t finished anybody beyond the first round since 2010, but he’s also never been finished past the midway mark of round two and all 30 of his pro fights have either ended in under a round and a half (17-6) or gone the distance (4-2-1). He’s never won more than two fights in a row in the UFC, but will get his chance to change that here as he comes in on a two fight winning streak.
Derrick Lewis
27th UFC Fight (17-9)Nose diving into the tailend of his career, Lewis has been finished in under seven minutes in three straight fights. He recently got submitted in the first round by Serghei Spivac, after suffering a 55 second R1 TKO loss to Sergei Pavlovich and a second round knockout defeat against Tai Tuivasa. Lewis did manage to knock out Chris Daukaus just before that, after losing via R3 TKO to Ciryl Gane. The last time Lewis went three full rounds was in 2020 against Ilir Latifi, who just wanted to clinch the whole time. Lewis’ R1 KO win over Daukaus is Lewis’ only first round win in his last 18 fights, dating back to 2016. Over that 18 fight stretch, Lewis has gone 11-7 with one R1 KO win, three in R2, two in R3, one R4, and four three-round decision victories.
Now 26-11 as a pro, Lewis has 21 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. He’s been knocked out seven times, submitted twice, and has two decision defeats. His last three wins have all come by KO in under seven minutes, with two ending in the opening 90 seconds of round two and the other coming in the final 90 seconds of round one. His last nine losses all came early, with seven knockouts and two submissions, and the last time he lost a decision was in 2011. While three of his last four fights ended in the first round, he’s still seen the second round in 15 of his last 18 matches. In his 37 pro fights, Lewis has only been knocked out in the first round twice and was also submitted in the first round once.
Overall, Lewis is a low-volume power puncher, who averages just 2.54 SSL/min and he hasn’t landed more than 39 significant strikes in any of his last 14 fights. He’ll often look to mix in a takedown or two to keep opponents guessing, but failed to land any takedowns in five of his last six fights. He’s pretty agile for his size and will also throw head kicks. His gas tank is limited so we often see him conserve it early on and/or wear down midway through fights, which is especially concerning as this fight will be at elevation. He has just a 52% career takedown defense and he’s been taken down 13 times on 26 attempts in his last 10 fights. At Media Day on Wednesday Lewis said that his weight has been an issue in his recent losses and he actually passed out at the UFC PI before weigh-ins for his last fight. He claims he’s gotten his weight under control for this fight and won’t be doing the extreme last minute weight cutting that caused him issues in the past, so we’ll see if he looks any different out there.
Fight Prediction:
Lewis will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. Both fighters are 38 years old.
While these two are the same age, De Lima has won four of his last five fights, while Lewis has been finished in three straight. In fairness to Lewis, he’s been facing guys at the top of the division, while De Lima hasn’t faced anyone of that caliber. So this will be a good test for both guys, as De Lima gets a step up in competition and Lewis gets a step down. De Lima is the more aggressive fighter and also the better grappler, while Lewis is a more patient striker who is typically looking for one big punch or a combination of strikes to land a knockout. While De Lima’s last 11 finishes have come in the first round, six of Lewis’s last seven finishes occurred in the later rounds. Neither of these two have good cardio, and the elevation of Salt Lake City will likely result in them gassing even faster than normal. So if we don’t see a finish in the first two rounds, the third round could get ugly. It will be interesting to see how much De Lima looks to wrestle, as that would be a good way to negate the power of Lewis, who just got submitted in the first round of his last fight. However, Lewis also hasn’t been wearing damage well lately and was knocked out in his other two most recent fights. So there are multiple paths for De Lima to end this one early, but if he doesn't get Lewis out of there in round one, it’s possible Lewis can land another one of his patented come back knockouts in round two. Lewis claims he’s in better shape for this fight and will perform better, but only time will tell. De Lima throws really heavy leg kicks, which could leave Lewis compromised before long, which adds some uncertainty in terms of Lewis’ ability to find success later in the fight. While you can never completely count Lewis out, he’s looked so bad recently that it’s hard to pick him to win and we’ll say De Lima either finishes Lewis in round one or grinds out another decision win, with a finish being the most likely scenario.
Our favorite bet here is “De Lima DEC” at +600.
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DFS Implications:
De Lima has averaged 107 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins and has been submitted in five of his six UFC losses, so whoever wins his fights generally scores well. However, De Lima only scored 81 DraftKings points in his recent decision win and only scored 39 points in a loss in his second most recent decision. In his previous two UFC decision wins he scored 106 and 80 DraftKings points respectively, so we’ve really only seen him score well in a decision once, which was when he smothered Maurice Greene on the mat for three rounds in 2021. De Lima’s other seven UFC wins all came in the first round and outside of that lone high scoring decision victory he’s been a R1 or bust play throughout his career. One of his biggest issues has been his cardio, and with this fight taking place at elevation that could be an even bigger issue for him. That lowers the chances of him having the energy to take Lewis down in the later rounds, which is what he would need to do to score well on DraftKings in a decision. Since De Lima has never finished a UFC opponent beyond the first round and struggles with his cardio in the later rounds, it’s fair to call him a R1 finish or bust option on this slate. The odds imply De Lima has a 66% chance to win, a 54% chance to land a finish, and a 36% chance it comes in round one.
Lewis has been finished in three straight and four of his last five fights, but has been facing an elite level of competition. Despite 13 of Lewis’ 17 UFC wins coming early, he’s only averaged 82 DraftKings points in his 17 victories. He averaged a head-scratching 44 DraftKings points in his four decision wins and 94 points in his 13 finishes. He’s only hit the century mark on DraftKings twice in his last 11 victories and only has one first round finish since 2016. He averages just 2.54 SSL/min and while he’ll occasionally mix in a takedown attempt, he failed to land any in five of his last six matches. That leaves him reliant on landing well times finishes to score well and his last second round knockout was only good for 83 DraftKings points, while his last third round finish only scored 77. Even at his cheaper price tag, he could knock De Lima out in the later rounds and still not end up in tournament winning lineups. However, he’ll still have a decent shot at being useful with a second round finish based on how aggressive De Lima is. Just keep in mind, De Lima has only been knocked out once in his career and that was all the way back in 2012, so a finish won’t come easy for Lewis. The odds imply Lewis has a 34% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Jan Blachowicz
20th UFC Fight (12-6-1)Blachowicz has been in one lackluster fight after the next lately. He won the vacant Light Heavyweight belt over Dominick Reyes in 2020, a win that has not aged well at all as Reyes has lost four straight and can’t take a punch. Then Blachowicz ground out a five-round decision win over Israel Adesanya, who was fighting up a weight class and was massively undersized. While Blachowicz secured that win with his wrestling in the back half of the match, he didn’t attempt a takedown in round one and failed on his only attempt in round two. It wasn’t until the third round that he finally got the fight to the mat and really took over. While that was technically his first Light Heavyweight title defense, the first time Blachowicz defended the belt against another actual Light Heavyweight was when he took on Glover Teixeira (Alex Pereira’s training partner/best friend) in 2021 and got submitted in the second round. Blachowicz then took on Aleksandar Rakic and after they split the first two rounds, Rakic suffered a freak knee injury in round three that stopped the fight after the momentum had swung in his favor in round two. Most recently, Blachowicz again fought for the vacant Light Heavyweight belt, but the match against Magomed Ankalaev ended in an anticlimactic draw. Blachowicz destroyed the legs of Ankalaev in round two and three, but got dominated on the mat in the later rounds and a 10-8 fifth round for Ankalaev resulted in a draw.
Now 29-9-1 as a pro, Blachowicz has nine wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and 11 decision victories. Seven of his nine submission wins came early in his career, in 2011 or prior. His only two UFC submission victories came against a pair of highly submittable opponents, with a 2018 R2 arm-triangle choke over Nikita Krylov (six career submission losses) and a 2017 rear-naked choke against Devin Calrk (four career submission losses). Seventeen of Blachowicz’s 18 career finishes have come in the first two rounds, with the one exception being his 2022 R3 TKO over Rakic resulting from a freak knee injury. He has seven first round finishes and 10 in round two, and seven of his last 10 early wins have been stopped in round two. On the other side of things, he’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has five decision losses. Two of the four times he’s been finished came early in his career, in a 2007 R1 kimura and a 2011 post round two TKO. His only TKO/KO loss since 2011 came early in the third round in a 2019 fight against Thiago Santos. His only submission loss since 2007 occurred in the second round of a 2021 match against Glover Teixeira.
Overall, Blachowicz is a patient but powerful striker, and only two of his 19 UFC fights have ended in the first round (10.5%). Ten of his 19 UFC fights went the distance (52.6%), although seven of his last 10 matches ended early. While Blachowicz took an undersized Israel Adesanya down three times on five attempts, he hasn’t landed a takedown in his other eight most recent fights and only even attempted one in those matches. He’s only topped 100 significant strikes once in his career, which was when he landed 107 against Adesanya in a five-round decision win, and Blachowicz only averages 3.41 SSL/min and 2.81 SSA/min. Only 3 of his last 23 fights have ended in submissions (2-1), and while Blachowicz is a BJJ black belt, you wouldn’t know it if you watched his fight against Teixeira. In his 19 UFC fights, Blachowicz has been taken down 18 times on 58 opponent attempts (68.9% defense). He’s been taken down at least once in each of his last three fights, and five of his last seven opponents to try and take him down have been successful. The two exceptions were Jacare Souza and Luke Rockhold, who each went 0 for 5 on their attempts, but were both notably coming up from 185 lb to fight at 205 lb for the first and only time in their careers.
Blachowicz has made a habit out of fighting Middleweights. He started that trend with a 2017 decision win over Jared Cannonier, shortly before Cannonier moved down to 185 lb, before suffering a 2019 R3 TKO loss to Thiago Santos, six months after Santos moved up from 185 lb. Following that loss, Blachowicz went on a five fight winning streak, with three of those wins coming against opponents who were moving up from Middleweight to Light Heavyweight for the first and only time. Those wins were a 2019 R2 KO over Luke Rockhold, a 2019 five-round split decision over Jacare Souza, and a 2021 five-round decision over Israel Adesanya. Devin Clark also notably had a Middleweight fight a year before facing Blachowicz, but Clark has spent almost his entire career at Light Heavyweight so we’re not even counting him on that list. Looking at those other five fights, Blachowicz went 4-1 with three decision wins, a R2 knockout win, and a R3 knockout loss. He landed 7 of his 11 takedown attempts in those fights (63.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down just once on 11 attempts (90.9%). Blachowicz will now face another opponent moving up from Middleweight here.
Alex Pereira
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Pereira is just three and a half months removed from losing the Middleweight belt in a violent R2 KO loss to Israel Adesanya. Instead of immediately trying to run things back with Adesanya for a third straight time, Pereira is now moving up to 205 lb for the first time in his MMA career, although has competed at Light Heavyweight in kickboxing. That was the first time Pereira has been knocked out in an MMA fight, although he had been previously knocked out in kickboxing matches. The UFC fast tracked Pereira to the top with a series of cherry picked non-wrestlers, and it’s no secret that Pereira is terrible on the mat. He amazingly got his first UFC title shot just 53 weeks after making his UFC debut, with just seven MMA fights under his belt, and even more amazingly won it in a comeback 5th round TKO against Adesanya in their first MMA fight, after losing three of the first four rounds in that fight. That was just Pereira’s fourth UFC fight, with three of those ending in knockout wins and the other a decision victory. The only fighter to go the distance with Pereira in MMA was Bruno Silva, who’s never been knocked out in 32 pro fights. Pereira only had one MMA fight in the five and a half years prior to making his UFC debut, which came in a November 2020 violent R1 KO win in the LFA. His first three MMA fights were back in 2015 and 2016 and he returned to kickboxing after that, winning the Glory Kickboxing Light Heavyweight Belt in a January 2021 split-decision and then losing the title in a rematch via decision in September 2021, just two months before making his UFC debut.
Now 7-2 as a pro in MMA, Pereira has six wins by KO/TKO and one decision victory. Three of those knockouts came in round one, two ended in round two, and the other was in round five. He’s been knocked out once in the second round, and submitted once in the third round. After competing at 209 lb in his last two kickboxing matches, Pereira dropped back down to 185 lb for his UFC debut, where all of his past MMA fights have been, but now he’ll be moving up to 205 lb for the first time in MMA. That’s not surprising, as he’s absolutely massive for the division. He had been cutting a ton of weight, which couldn’t have been helping his durability or cardio.
Overall, Pereira is a very dangerous kickboxer, but has yet to show anything in terms of grappling—although he has been working with Glover Teixeira to try and improve that faucet of his game. In his five UFC fights, he’s been taken down five times on 19 opponent attempts (73.7% defense), while he landed his lone takedown, which came against Adesanya. While his MMA experience is still very limited, he has 40 kickboxing fights to his name (33-7) including knockouts over Israel Adesanya (2017) and Dustin Jacoby (2014), along with another decision win over Adesanya in 2016. Pereira has also been knocked out twice himself in kickboxing matches. He has a dangerous left hook and throws violent kicks and knees to maximize his massive frame. Despite forcing a stoppage in the fifth round of his second most recent fight, his cardio remains a concern and he was slowing down prior to the finish. So it will be interesting to see how he handles fighting at elevation here.
Fight Prediction:
Pereira will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also four years younger than the 40-year-old Blachowicz.
Clearly the smart approach for Blachowicz here is to rely on his wrestling, as he did in the later rounds against Adesanya. However, he’s talked about how he wants to test his striking against Pereira’s in the first round and he’ll only wrestle after that if he needs to. That’s definitely not what you want to hear from him if you’re backing him, and if he’s being truthful then it should give Pereira an opportunity to knock him out. With that said, it remains to be seen if Pereira’s power will be quite as lethal at Light Heavyweight, where opponents are more accustomed to taking bigger shots. Pereira’s last two Light Heavyweight kickboxing matches both went the distance, and Blachowicz is built like an oak tree and has only been knocked out once since 2011. Nevertheless, Pereira will have the speed advantage and if Blachowicz plays around with him on the feet too much there’s a good chance Pereira can put him away. However, he may need to do it pretty cleanly, as Blachowicz should resort to his wrestling if he starts getting touched up. Nothing we’ve seen from Pereira indicates that he’ll be able to defend the wrestling of Blachowicz and once on the mat Pereira hasn’t posed any sort of threat. The question would then become whether or not Blachowicz can finish him, and we lean towards no in a three-round fight. Blachowicz never finishes anybody beyond the second round, unless you count the freak injury that Rakic suffered in round three, which we don’t. And if Blachowicz is going to wait to wrestle, he’ll have a pretty limited window to finish Pereira in the second round. While Blachowicz’s low IQ may get him knocked out here, we’re more expecting to see a slower paced first round followed by Blachowicz wrestling in the later rounds to grind out a close decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Over 1.5 Rounds” at -145.
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DFS Implications:
Blachowicz has averaged 93 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC victories, scoring 88 or more points in 10 of those, but only topping 96 points in three of them. His last two decision wins scored 116 and 65 DraftKings points respectively, but those were both in five-round fights and this match is only scheduled to go three rounds. Blachowicz hasn’t been to a three-round decision since 2018, where he scored 94 DraftKings points in a fairly high-volume fight where he also secured a knockdown and a takedown. His other two UFC three-round decision wins were good for 88 and 114 DraftKings points, and he averaged 99 points in those three wins. Just keep in mind, he’s now 40 years old and all of those wins were 5+ years ago. Ignoring his five-round decision scores, Blachowicz has only topped 96 points in one of his other eight most recent wins and his low striking output generally doesn’t make for big scores even when he’s able to land a finish. His DraftKings upside here will be more tied to his wrestling, and it’s not overly encouraging that he said he wants to keep the fight standing early on. Maybe he can still do enough on the mat in the later rounds to score decently, but we could easily see him score in the 90-95 range on DraftKings and get left out of winning lineups. His cheaper price tag will make that a little tougher, and there will be a fine line between him being a good play and a good fade in tournaments. Blachowicz’s last seven fights have all been scheduled to go five rounds, so it will be interesting to see if he adjusts his pace for his first three-round fight since 2019. We lean towards he won’t, but you never know. The odds imply Blachowicz has a 50% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Pereira has only averaged 94 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, despite three of those ending in knockouts. He scored just 92 points in his R5 TKO win over Adesanya, after totaling 87 and 110 points in his previous two UFC knockouts, and 87 points in his lone decision win. Pereira doesn’t really add anything in terms of grappling and relies entirely on striking and knockouts to score well. Now he’s moving up a weight class and taking on a tank in Blachowicz, who’s only been knocked out once since 2011. Blachowicz has said in recent interviews that he’ll test his striking out early and then resort to his wrestling if he needs to. That’s somewhat encouraging for Pereira’s chances of landing an early knockout, but also signals it will be tougher to put up a big striking total, as Blachowicz should be eventually looking to take him down and control him in this fight. Blachowicz also only averages 2.81 SSA/min and we’re treating Pereira as an early KO or bust option. Even at his cheap price tag, on a higher scoring slate we could see him getting left out of winning lineups with a late knockout, although that’s not a certainty. We expect this fight to carry a high amount of ownership overall, and on a smaller card with a super high-upside, high-owned main event, there’s a lot of merit in being underweight on this matchup in tournaments to try and create more unique lineups. The odds imply Pereira has a 50% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Dustin Poirier
29th UFC Fight (21-6, NC)Poirier is coming off a third round submission win over Michael Chandler, which is Poirier’s only submission victory since 2017 and just his second since 2012. Prior to that win, it was Poirier who was getting submitted in the third round when he faced off against Charles Oliveira for the Lightweight belt back in December 2021. Poirier’s only other loss since 2016 was another third round submission with the belt on the line, that time in 2019 against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Leading up to his loss against Oliveira, Poirier notched back-to-back KO/TKO wins against Conor McGregor, after winning a wild five-round decision over Dan Hooker.
Now 29-7 as a pro, Poirier has 14 wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and seven decisions. Thirteen of Poirier’s 14 career KO/TKO wins have occurred in the opening two rounds, with 10 ending in the first round and three in round two. The one exception was a 2018 R4 TKO over Justin Gaethje. Six of his eight submission wins also occurred in the first two rounds. On the other side of things, he’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has two decision losses. After starting his pro career at 155 lb, Poirier dropped down to 145 lb for the first time in his 2011 UFC debut. He stayed at 145 lb for his first 11 UFC matches, where he went 8-3, before moving back up to 155 lb following a 2014 R1 TKO loss to McGregor, in the first of their three fights. Since moving back up to 155 lb, Poirier has gone 13-3 plus a No Contest, with the losses coming in a pair of third round submissions against Khabib and Oliveira, and a 2016 first round KO against Michael Johnson. Of his 13 UFC wins at 155 lb, seven ended in KO/TKOs, four went the distance and two ended in submissions.
This will be the 12th five-round UFC fight of Poirier’s career (7-4). Four of those seven wins ended in KO/TKOs, two went the distance, and one ended in a submission. He was submitted in the later rounds in three of those four losses, and knocked out in the first round of the other. Here are all of his five-round fights:
2021 R3 SUB L vs. Charles Oliveira
2021 R1 TKO W vs. Conor McGregor
2021 R2 KO W vs. Conor McGregor
2020 R5 DEC W vs. Dan Hooker
2019 R3 SUB L vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov
2019 R5 DEC W vs. Max Holloway
2018 R2 TKO W vs. Eddie Alvarez
2018 R4 TKO W vs. Justin Gaethje
2017 R3 SUB W vs. Anthony Pettis
2016 R1 KO L vs. Michael Johnson
2012 R4 SUB L vs. The Korean Zombie
Overall, Poirier is primarily a striker but does have a BJJ black belt and will mix in occasional takedown attempts. He has a career 36% takedown accuracy and 63% defense, and in his last 10 fights he landed 9 of his 29 takedown attempts (31% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents on 15 of their 35 attempts (57.1% defense). He’s failed to get any of his last nine opponents down more than once. While he will look for occasional submissions, as we saw in his last fight, he’s generally looking to knock opponents out or outland his way to victory with the judges. He has won the last five decisions he’s been to, with his last decision loss occurring all the way back in 2013. He averages 5.51 SSL/min and 4.25 SSA/min, but has been narrowly outlanded in significant strikes in five of his last seven fights, with the two exceptions both coming against McGregor. Poirier is never in a boring fight and now steps into a fight of the year type matchup. Poirier trains at American Top Team in Florida, so we’ll see if fighting at elevation affects him any here, but he said he was planning on going out early and was also sleeping in an altitude chamber for the first time in preparation for this fight.
Justin Gaethje
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Coming off a close majority decision win over Rafael Fiziev that one judge ruled a draw, Gaethje has traded wins and losses in five straight outings. His last two wins both ended in three-round decisions, while his last two losses both came by submission in the first seven minutes of his two UFC title shots against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, similar to Poirier. In between those two losses, Gaethje won a decision in a wild three-round war against Michael Chandler. The last time he lost a fight without a belt on the line was when he faced Dustin Poirier for the first time back in 2018 and got knocked out early in round four. Gaethje bounced back from that loss with four straight knockout wins over James Vick, Edson Barboza, Donald Cerrone, and Tony Ferguson. Vick lost five straight fights beginning with that loss (4 by KO) before retiring, Barboza lost lost his next two after that loss and soon dropped down to 145 lb, Cerrone was in the midst of six fight skid (not counting a NC) before retiring, and Ferguson has lost five straight beginning with the loss to Gaethje. Then you have Chandler, who lost three of his last four with the one win coming against Ferguson. So Gaethje’s wins haven’t aged especially well, although you could also argue that the fighters he’s beaten are just never the same after going to war against him.
Now 24-4 as a pro, Gaethje has 19 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. Five of his seven UFC wins have come by knockout, with three in round one, one in round two, and one in round five. He’s been knocked out twice and submitted twice in his career. All four of those losses came against world class talent, with his submissions coming against Oliveira and Khabib and his knockouts against Poirier and Alvarez. While his two submission losses both came in under a round and a half, his two knockout losses occurred late in round three and early in round four of consecutive 2017-2018 fights. While 13 of Gaethje’s last 15 fights ended early, both of those decisions came in his last three matches. His first seven UFC fights all ended in knockouts (5-2), but his last four have been split evenly between decision wins and submission losses.
This will be the 15th five-round fight of Gaethje’s career (11-3) and ninth in the UFC (5-3). He’s never been the full five rounds in any of those fights and only saw the championship rounds twice, which were in his 2020 R5 TKO win versus Tony Ferguson and his 2018 R4 TKO loss against Dustin Poirier. His six fights scheduled to go five rounds before he joined the UFC all ended in knockout wins in the opening three rounds. His first six UFC five-round fights also all ended in knockouts, with him winning five of those. However, his last two five-round fights both ended in submission losses. Here are all the five-round fights he’s been part of:
UFC (5-3):
2022 R1 SUB L vs. Charles Oliveira
2020 R2 SUB L vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov
2020 R5 TKO W vs. Tony Ferguson
2019 R1 TKO W vs. Donald Cerrone
2019 R1 KO W vs. Edson Barboza
2018 R1 KO W vs. James Vick
2018 R4 TKO L vs. Dustin Poirier
2017 R2 TKO W vs. Michael Johnson
PRE UFC (6-0):
2016 R3 TKO W vs. Luiz Firmino
2016 R1 TKO W vs. Brian Foster
2015 R2 TKO W vs. Luis Palomino
2015 R3 TKO W vs. Luis Palomino
2014 R2 TKO W vs. Nick Newell
2014 R1 TKO W vs. Richard Patishnock
Overall, Gaethje is an exciting brawler who generally has no interest in going to the ground despite the fact that he has a wrestling background and was a two-time state champion high school wrestler and a D1 NCAA All-American at the University of Northern Colorado. However, after only attempting a single failed takedown in his first 10 UFC fights, he finally landed the first takedown of his career in the closing seconds of his last match and shot for three in that fight. On the other side of things, he has a solid 75% takedown defense, but has looked terrible off his back when he has been taken down. In fairness, almost everyone looks bad on the mat against Khabib and Oliveira. Gaethje is a great leg striker who often looks to chop his opponents down early before attacking up top with heavy punches. He also throws destructive uppercuts that are useful when facing an opponent who wants to shoot for takedowns. He’s proven himself to be extremely durable throughout his career, but he is now 34 years old and you have to wonder if we’ll eventually see that durability fade from an accumulation of all the damage he’s taken in his career. Gaethje does notably train at elevation in Colorado, which is over 1,000 higher than Salt Lake City where this fight will be.
Fight Prediction:
Gaethje will have a 2” height advantage, but Poirier will have a 2” reach advantage. Both fighters are 34 years old, with Gaethje being two months older than Poirier.
This will be a rematch of a 2018 fight that was scheduled to go five-rounds, with Poirier winning by TKO early in round four. In their first fight, Gaethje did a good job of landing heavy leg kicks, while Poirier was putting together the longer boxing combinations that eventually resulted in the knockout. Gaethje also lost a point following his second eye poke in that match. It’s no secret that Gaethje throws damaging leg kicks and Poirier was limping by the end of their last match. Look for Gaethje to continue that here, we’ll see if Poirier can either do a better job of checking them or getting out of the way. The last time he was more content with countering with punching combinations as Gaethje threw kicks, which in fairness did ultimately get Poirier the finish. It’s hard to expect anything but unabated violence here and the egos of these two should prevent either of them from looking to grapple very much. However, Poirier is the one that typically looks for more takedowns than Gaethje and if his leg gets completely chewed up he may have no choice. Gaethje’s submission defense has looked pretty terrible when he does get taken down, so it’s now out of the question that Poirier could lock up a late submission. However, look for that to be more of a fallback option than a primary game plan and these two should come in looking to put on a show. It will likely come down to what holds up longer, the legs of Poirier or the head/body of Gaethje. Poirier won that battle the last go around and we have no reason to think he can’t come out victorious once again, but leg kicks are a tricky beast and you can go from fine to fatally wounded in an instant. So there is some inherent volatility in this potential fight of the year matchup, but we’ll say Poirer knocks Gaethje out in the championship rounds once again through an accumulation of damage.
Our favorite bet here is “Over 2.5 Rounds” at -118.
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DFS Implications:
Poirier is coming off the worst DFS score of his career in terms of fights that he won, as he only notched 67 DraftKings points in a third round submission over Michael Chandler. That was basically a worst case scenario for Poirier as he got controlled for almost the entire second round and then reversed a takedown attempt in round three and locked up a submission. He scored 107 points in his second most recent third round win, and that recent disappointing performance appears to be an outlier as Poirier has still averaged 109 DraftKings points in his 13 wins since moving up to 155 lb in 2015 following a R1 KO loss to Conor McGregor. His last fight is actually the only time he failed to score at least 99 points in those 13 victories and Poirier has been a scoring machine when he wins. His last two five-round decision wins were good for 112 and 113 DraftKings points, while he scored 111 points in an early R4 TKO the first time he and Gaethje squared off back in 2018. Considering Gaethje has only landed one takedown in his entire UFC career, it would be surprising to see him suddenly wrestle and control Poirier here the way Chandler did in that last fight. That means it will be much tougher for Poirier to fail to score well in a win here, regardless of whether it comes in the early rounds, the late rounds, or in a decision. When you factor in his very reasonable DFS salary, the odds of him getting priced out of winning lineups are small. So he’ll likely either need to lose or have the fight stopped for an eye poke and ruled a No Contest to fail. Unfortunately, the field will be fully aware of this and Poirier projects to be the highest owned fighter on the card, which creates some merit in exploring the possible ways he doesn’t end up in the winner to gain leverage on the field in tournaments. With that said, he’s a great play in all contest types and deserves the ownership he’s receiving, as he has the highest scoring floor and ceiling of any fighter on the card. The odds imply Poirier has a 57% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Gaethje has averaged 101 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, although similar to Poirier he’s coming off the lowest scoring win of his career, where he only totaled 77 DraftKings points in a close three-round decision win over Rafael Fiziev. However, three-round decision scores obviously don’t concern us here as Gaethje steps back into a five-round main event. Gaethje went 5-3 in his previous eight UFC five-round fights, averaging 108 DraftKings points in those five wins (all by knockout) and scored at least 97 points in all of those. None of his eight UFC main events made it to the judges, but he has seen the championship rounds twice (1-1). One potential advantage Gaethje could have in this matchup is the fact that he trains at elevation in Colorado, while Poirier trains in Florida, but it remains to be seen if that will actually play a factor and Poirier is sleeping in an altitude chamber and is going out early to adjust. At Gaethje’s cheaper price tag, it would be very surprising to see him pull off the upset here and get left out of winning lineups, regardless of whether he lands another finish or wins a decision. The odds imply Gaethje has a 43% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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