Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Looking to skip the reading and get straight to the best plays and top bets? We're now offering premium DFS and betting content at patreon.com/mmadfs that includes our new DFS Cheat Sheet, with our top DraftKings, FanDuel and PrizePicks plays along with our DraftKings ownership projections, as well as our top early bets and our complete betting chart for every UFC fight.
Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Orion Cosce
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)This is the third straight time this fight has been booked. It was initially scheduled in February, but Cosce withdrew. Then it was booked in June, but Diamond withdrew. Hopefully the third time’s the charm.
Cosce is coming off the first loss of his young career, which came in his July 2021 UFC debut against Phil Rowe. Prior to that loss, Cosce punched his ticket to the UFC with a third round TKO win on DWCS in August 2020, where he started slow but ended up outlasting his opponent, Matt Dixon, who gassed out midway through the fight. Cosce landed a takedown a minute into the third round and spent the next three plus minutes wearing away at Dixon with heavy top pressure and ground and pound as he worked his way into a crucifix position to force a stoppage in the final 30 seconds of the fight.
In his recent loss, Cosce was able to control Rowe on the fence and the ground for essentially the entire first round as well as the early parts of round two. However, when Rowe was finally able to get back into open space he really put it on Cosce, landing dozens of heavy knees and punches. Cosce was briefly able to return the fight to the clinch along the fence, but Rowe eventually escaped and landed a series of heavy knees in the clinch and then finished Cosce with punches as the fight was stopped. The fight ended with Cosce landing 2 of his 6 takedown attempts with over six and half minutes of control time, while Rowe led in significant strikes 46-22 and in total strikes 53-51. Rowe did notably miss weight by 2.5 lb for that fight, and is already massive for the division.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Cosce has six wins by KO and one by submission. Three of his last four wins have come by third round KO, with his other four finishes ending in round one. He’s still never been to the judges. He hasn’t faced much in terms of competition, with the majority of his career wins coming against opponents with losing records and little experience.
Overall, Cosce is a former state champion high school wrestler, and relies heavily on his grappling to win fights. He will look to throw bombs on the feet, but isn’t a very technical striker. He’s a BJJ brown belt, but only has one submission win in his career and is typically just looking for ground and pound on the mat.
UPDATE: Cosce missed weight by 1.5 lb!
Mike “Blood Diamond” Mathetha
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)When Cosce dropped out of the February card, Diamond made his UFC debut against Jeremiah Wells instead, but will now turn his sights back to Cosce. After winning his first three pro fights, Diamond got a shot in the UFC despite his lack of experience and got submitted in the first round by Wells.
In that recent loss, the one-dimensional striker in Diamond was set up to fail as he squared off against a BJJ black belt in Jeremiah Wells. After Wells started the fight by tripping along the outside of the cage in the opening seconds (the most danger he was in at any point in the fight), he immediately engaged in the clinch and began looking for a takedown. After a minute and half he was finally able to secure the takedown and then he spent the remainder of the round hunting for a submission until he was eventually able to choke Diamond unconscious in the closing seconds of the round. Diamond landed just a single strike in the lopsided fight.
Still just 3-1 as a pro, Diamond has one win by KO, one by submission, and one decision. His only defeat came in his recent submission loss. Only one of his four fights made it past the second round.
Overall, Diamond is in the UFC due to his connection with Israel Adesanya and City Kickboxing. While Diamond has kickboxing experience, he’s still very green in MMA and is a one-dimensional striker who offers nothing in terms of grappling. Diamond has an awkward striking style, as he lands strikes from all angles and throws up all sorts of unorthodox kicks. Diamond will fight out of both stances but his left hand is his power hand, which can be sneaky when he’s fighting out of the conventional stance. At 34 years old, we’re not convinced that Diamond will be able to add a grappling game at this stage in his career. Unless the UFC starts pairing him up against low-level one-dimensional strikers, his days are likely numbered.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’11” but Diamond will have a 5” reach advantage. Cosce is six years younger than the 34-year-old Diamond.
This is a classic striker versus grappler matchup between a pair of low level talents who are each still searching for their first win in the UFC. Diamond isn’t necessarily the easiest guy to get to the mat, but once he’s there he’s essentially helpless. Even on the feet, Diamond isn’t an especially impressive or crisp striker. We like Cosce to get this fight to the ground and finish Diamond with ground and pound, with a slight chance he could look for a submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at -115.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Cosce steps into a perfect bounce back spot after getting knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut, as he faces a one-dimensional striker here. Cosce is a wrestler who’s typically looking to get fights to the mat and beat opponents up with ground and pound and has the potential to put up huge amounts of control time and ground strikes. That style of fighting is better suited to the DraftKings scoring system, but the fact that all seven of his career wins have come early keeps him in play in all DFS formats. The recent loss in his debut should keep Cosce’s ownership under control, and while it’s somewhat concerning that he faded so hard in the second round of his last match, his upside here is undeniable in a dream matchup. Just keep in mind that Cosce has yet to prove he belongs in the UFC and his early career record is pretty padded. So there’s always a chance he’s a complete fraud and is unable to get this fight to the ground and ends up getting finished on the feet. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 44% chance to get a finish and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Blood Diamond is a wild one-dimensional striker, who lands a decent amount of striking volume in space but doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling. He’s coming off a first round submission loss in his UFC debut where he looked absolutely helpless on the mat and now he faces another grappler. Diamond will need to land a knockout to win this fight and we expect him to be defending takedowns throughout the match, which will make it tougher for him to get his striking going. He’s really just a bet against Cosce, and we don’t have much excitement for playing him. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Ihor Potieria
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a R1 KO win on DWCS, Potieria makes his debut on a 15 fight winning streak, but almost all of those wins were against a very low level of competition. Potieria had originally been scheduled to make his debut against Negumereanu back in March, but ended up withdrawing from that booking, so these two have had plenty of time to prepare for one another at this point. The fight was put back together in May.
In his last fight, we saw most of the time spent with the two fighters clinched along the fence before Potieria exploded for a knockout later in the first round. We didn’t see a ton happen in the match so it’s hard to take too much away from it, but Potieria at least showed he has finishing power. The fight ended with Potieria trailing in significant strikes 21-18 and in total strikes 45-27, while he also failed to land his only takedown attempt. In a fight that lasted just over three and a half minutes, Potieria finished ahead in control time 1:29-1:09. That was one of Potieria’s few wins that came against a somewhat legitimate opponent, as most of his career has been spent fighting guys with losing records.
Now 19-2 as a pro…or 20-2 depending on where you look…Potieria has nine wins by KO, six by submission, and four decisions. He was knocked out in the first round of his third pro fight back in 2015, with his only other loss coming in a 2017 decision. Potieria started his career at 205 lb, but dropped down to 185 lb in 2020 for a three fight stretch before taking a 198 lb Catchweight fight in 2021 and then moving back up to 205 lb when he went on DWCS. He’ll now be making his debut at 2015 lb as well. Fourteen of his 15 finishes have come in the first round, with the other ending in round two. We have some concerns regarding the inconsistencies in his record depending on where you look and he’s not the first Ukrainian fighter to come into the UFC with creative record keeping.
Overall, Potieria is a Ukrainian international master of sports in combat sambo so he theoretically is coming into the UFC with a pretty well rounded skill set. With that said, we haven’t been overly impressed by what we’ve seen out of him. He has shown decent power, but hasn’t really stood out anywhere else. He doesn’t land a ton of striking volume or takedowns, and has looked prone to getting taken down himself. We’re getting some fraudulent vibes from him, but he’ll have his chance to prove us wrong on Saturday.
Nicolae Negumereanu
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming in on a three fight winning streak, Negumereanu has gone the distance in three of his last four fights, with two of those decision wins being split. His only early win in the UFC came against Ike Villanueva, so it hardly even counts. Following a first round KO win over Villanueva, Negumereanu fought Kennedy Nzechukwu to a close split decision in his last outing. The only loss of Negumereanu’s career came in his 2019 UFC debut against a super sketchy Saparbek Safarov. In fairness to Negumereanu, Safarov blatantly grabbed the fence 25 times in that match and probably should have been disqualified after ignoring a dozen warnings and then compounding the violations with an incredibly late and heavy elbow to the face of Negumereanu after the ref called time to address the fence grabs. Following the bizarre loss, Negumereanu didn’t fight again for 27 months after undergoing back surgery leading up to his recent string of wins.
In that recent fight, we saw a slow start with Negumereanu taking an early striking lead, before Nzechukwu began to pick up the pace in the back half of the match as he often does. Unfortunately Nzechukwu was deducted a point in the third round for an eye poke, although that appeared to light a fire under him as he then began pushing for finishing, landing more significant strikes in the third round than he did in the first two rounds combined. However, he was unable to hand Negumereanu the first early loss of his career and the fight went to the scorecards, where the judges had mixed thoughts on who won the first two rounds. The fight ended with Nzechukwu ahead 95-64 in significant strikes and 97-81 in total strikes, while Negumereanu landed one of his five takedown attempts with three and a half minutes of control time. That was enough for two of the judges to say he had won.
Now 12-1 as a pro, Negumereanu has seven wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. He’s never been finished in his career. All 10 of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with six in round one and four in round two. However, the only person he’s finished since 2018 was a helpless Ike Villanueva and Negumereanu fought a lot of highly suspect competition prior to joining the UFC. We’ve yet to see him finish anyone decent.
Overall, Negumereanu relies on his durability, wrestling, and clinch work to win fights. He marches forward and lacks any sort of elusiveness, which eventually has to catch up with him, however, his chin has held up so far. He averages just 3.39 SSL/min, but a whopping 5.92 SSA/min (most on the slate). He’s struggled with his takedown accuracy as well, landing just 2 of his 11 attempts (18.2%).
Fight Prediction:
Potieria will have a 3” height advantage, but Negumereanu will have a 3” reach advantage.
Neither one of these two have impressed us, but Negumereanu has at least proven to be durable at the UFC level, while we’re still not sure what we’re getting with Potieria. Both of these guys had extremely padded pre-UFC records, which leaves more questions than answers and makes this somewhat of a higher variance spot, at least when it comes to Potieria. We more or less know what to expect out of Negumereanu at this point. He’ll march forward, eat punches, put opponents up against the cage and struggle to land takedowns. That’s been enough to win him three straight fights, with two of those ending in close split decisions, but his luck is bound to run out eventually. We’re just not fully convinced that time is now. Potieria has looked prone to getting controlled against the fence and taken down, which should play into what Negumereanu is trying to do. We like Negumereanu to win a close, clinch-heavy decision in this one.
Our favorite bet here is “Negumereanu DEC” at +300.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Potieria is making his UFC debut on a 15 fight winning streak, but his record is kind of sketchy and he’s faced almost exclusively poor competition. He’s fought down at 185 lb some, and will now face an extremely durable 205 lb fighter, which seemingly lowers his chances of finding a finish. Potieria hasn’t landed much in terms of striking volume or takedowns in his recent fights, so it’s hard to see him scoring well unless he hands Negumereanu the first early loss of his career. Working in Potieria’s favor, he projects to be very low owned after the line flipped in Negumereanu’s favor, as Potieria is now severely overpriced on DraftKings especially, where pricing came out earlier. Potieria also has a history of landing finishes, even if they did come against lower level talent. The odds imply he has a 48% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Negumereanu is coming off his second split-decision win in his last three fights, averaging 74 DraftKings points in those matches. While he has theoretical grappling upside, he’s only landed two of his 11 takedown attempts (18.2%) in his four UFC fights, and typically just ends up pushing opponents against the cage. The only time he’s put up a usable score was when he faced Ike Villanueva, who’s been finished more times than a Coney Island hot dog. The jury is still out on UFC newcomer Ihor Potieria, which makes this a higher variance fight, but Negumereanu has seen a massive line move in his favor, and after opening the week as the underdog, he’s now the favorite. That should drive his ownership up, and makes him a solid low-risk play, but a less exciting tournament option. Unless he finally finds some wrestling success, he’ll still need a finish to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 52% chance to win, a 30% chance to get a finish and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Joselyne Edwards
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Stepping into this fight on two and half week’s notice after Mariya Agapova dropped out, Edwards is coming off a decision win just seven weeks ago in Singapore. All four of her UFC fights have gone the distance, with a decision win in her January 2021 debut followed by a pair of grappling-heavy losses leading up to her recent decision victory.
In her last fight, Edwards didn’t look quite as explosive with her hands as she has in the past, but appeared more focused on landing volume and relied heavily on leg kicks, which she landed an insane 77 of. Pascual actually finished the first round strong and appeared to have Edwards somewhat hurt, but Edwards was able to survive. Edwards pulled away in striking later in the fight, especially in round three, and finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 164-63 and in total strikes 175-65, while stuffing 10 of Pascual’s 11 takedown attempts and failing to land any of her own three attempts.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Edwards has five wins by KO, three by submission, and three decisions. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once, and has three decision losses, including a five-round split-decision loss to a terrible Sarah Alpar in a 2018 LFA Bantamweight title fight. Edwards’ submission game appears limited to looking for armbars off her back, which is how she finished her last two submissions. All eight of her early wins have occurred in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one and two in round two. Three of her five knockouts occurred in under 60 seconds, but none of those were against opponents with winning records. After eight of her first nine pro fights ended early, her last four and five of her last six have gone the distance. After fighting almost her entire career down at 135 lb, with one fight even at 125 lb, Edwards moved up to 145 lb for the first time in her last match, but will now be dropping back down to 135 lb.
Overall, Edwards is basically a one-dimensional striker with a background in boxing, but she will look for armbar attempts off her back, which is really the extent of her grappling. After getting taken down 10 times on 19 attempts in her first three UFC fights (52.6%), Edwards was only taken down once on 11 attempts (9.1%) in her last match, although that was arguably due to the level of competition she was facing.
UPDATE: Edwards missed weight by 1.5 lb!
Ji Yeon Kim
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Looking to bounce back from a close/questionable decision loss, Kim had been preparing to face Mariya Agapova here at 125 lb, but Agapova dropped out and Edwards was announced as the replacement a little over two weeks out, with the fight getting moved up to 135 lb. Kim has lost three straight fights and four of her last five, with seven of her eight UFC fights going the distance. The one exception was a 2019 R2 KO win over a suspect Nadia Kassem, who went 1-2 in the UFC and never fought again following the loss to Kim.
In her last fight, we saw Kim throw down in a war against Priscila Cachoeira. Kim was the one landing more volume, but Cachoeira appeared to be doing more damage with her strikes and towards the end landed nothing but heavy elbows. The fight ended with Kim ahead in significant strikes 170-102 and in total strikes 171-102, while Cachoeira landed the only takedown attempt in the fight. Cachoeira won a unanimous 29-28 decision despite finishing well behind in striking.
Now 9-5-2 as a pro, Kim has two wins by KO, three by submission, and four decisions. She’s never been finished, with all five of her career losses ending in decisions. The first two fights of her pro career both ended in two-round draws and both of her UFC decision wins were split. Kim will be moving back up to 135 lb for this fight, where she started her career and lost her UFC debut. Kim dropped down to 125 for her second UFC fight, where her last seven matches have been.
Overall, Kim is a high-volume one-dimensional striker, who’s never landed a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts. She lands a ton of volume averaging 5.86 SSL/min (2nd highest on the slate) and 5.64 SSA/min (3rd most on the slate). She has a massive 72” reach, which helps her to pick her opponents apart.
Fight Prediction:
Edwards will have a 1” height advantage, but Kim will have a 2” reach advantage.
This sets up as a high-volume striking battle between two fighters who have combined for total takedown landed in their UFC careers. The wildcard here is that Edwards is moving back down to 135 lb after taking a fight up at 145 lb just 7 weeks ago, while Kim is moving up from 125 lb for the first time since 2017. So it will be interesting to see if Kim has the speed advantage or if Edwards has the power advantage. We like both of them to put up huge striking totals and for this to end in a close decision. Because of that, we’ll take the plus money on Kim but we could see this going either way and the judging in Texas is notoriously bad so it’s really anyone’s guess as to who gets their hand raised. We also don’t feel great about the weight moves here, and wouldn’t be shocked to see Edwards overpower Kim.
Our favorite bet here is “Kim DEC” at +170.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Edwards is coming off a career best performance where she landed 164 significant strikes and was still able to score 99 DraftKings points in a decision win. She’s really struggled against grapplers, but now she’ll face a fellow one-dimensional striker in Kim, who’s notably moving up from 125 lb. Kim averages 5.64 SSA/min (3rd most on the slate), so this looks like a great spot for Edwards to once again land a ton of striking volume. Kim’s last two opponents both landed above 100 significant strikes against her. Considering Edwards doesn't really offer anything in terms of grappling, it will likely still be dicey as to whether or not she can score enough to end up in tournament winning lineups in a decision win, but if we see a repeat performance of her last outing there’s a decent chance she can serve as a value play at her reasonable price tag. Her style of fighting will also typically score better on FanDuel than DraftKings. The odds imply she has a 55% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Kim comes in desperate for a win after losing her last three and four of her last five matches. There’s a good chance she’s fighting for her job here, so we expect to see her leave it all out there. The fact that she’s moving up to 135 lb for the first time since her 2017 UFC debut adds some uncertainty to the mix, and just further reduces the chances we see her land a finish. Considering she’s never landed a takedown in eight UFC fights, she’s entirely reliant on putting up a huge striking total to score well in a decision win. Edwards has shown a willingness to throw down in a brawl, and while she averages just 3.27 SSA/min, keep in mind that she was involved in two grappling-heavy matches and then faced another grappler in her last fight. If we look at Edwards’ striking defense, it’s just 43%. So it’s not that she does a good job of avoiding strikes, she just hasn’t gone against any opponents who threw a ton of volume at her. Look for that to change here and we like Kim to eclipse 100 significant strikes landed if this goes the distance, which everyone is expecting it to (71% implied chance according to the odds). At Kim’s cheaper price tag it’s a little easier for her to serve as a value play even if she doesn't put up a massive score. Had her recent close decision loss gone her way, she would have scored 98 DraftKings points and 122 points on FanDuel. She looks like a solid value play on both sites. The odds imply Kim has a 45% to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Michael Morales
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Morales had been scheduled to face Ramiz Brahimaj here, but Brahimaj dropped out and Fugitt was announced as the replacement just nine days out. Morales is coming off a R1 KO win over veteran Trevin Giles in his recent UFC debut. That came just after Morales won a decision on DWCS to get his shot in the UFC. That was just the second time Morales has required the judges in his career, and he had finished eight straight opponents leading up to it.
In his recent win, Morales did face some early adversity as Giles caught him early in the fight and then took him down. However, Morales was able to reverse the position on the mat and shift the momentum. The two returned to their feet and the action slowed for a moment, until Morales caught Giles lunging in and then continued to assault him with punches until the ref stopped the fight. The match ended with Morales ahead 26-8 in significant strikes and 28-8 in total strikes, while Giles landed 1 of his 4 takedown attempts.
Now 13-0 as a pro, Morales has 10 wins by KO, one by submission, and two decisions. Seven of his 11 finishes have come in the first round, with the other four ending in round two. Both of his fights to make it to the third round ended up going the distance. Morales definitely hasn’t faced the toughest competition in his career and is still just 23 years old, so we expect him to have some growing pains in his UFC career eventually.
Overall, Morales is a former Ecuadorian national wrestling champion, but relies primarily on his striking. He has good range and is a patient striker who likes to feel out his opponents early on before looking for finishes after he settles in. However, once he smells blood in the water he really lets his hands go, he’s just not a guy that typically throws much volume right out of the gate.
Adam Fugitt
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut on nine day’s notice, Fugitt has just 43 seconds of cage time since 2019. He comes in on a four fight winning streak, with his last seven fights ending early. While he’s had a couple of fights in the LFA, overall he hasn’t been facing the toughest competition, so this will be a major step up for him.
In his last fight, Fugitt used his length advantage to come out firing head kicks and his shorter opponent was never able to figure out how to close the distance. Fugitt then changed it up and landed a right hook that dropped Solomon Renfro, and Fugitt immediately jumped on top and forced a quick stoppage with ground and pound. The fight only lasted 43 seconds so it’s hard to take too much away from it. That's the only time Fugitt has fought in an MMA fight since 2019, although he did get submitted in a grappling match against Nick Maximov in 2020.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Fugitt has four wins by KO, three by submission, and one decision. He’s been knocked out once and has one decision loss. His decision loss came in his third pro fight back in 2017 against a suspect Austin Vanderford (husband of Paige VanZant). His lone KO loss occurred 91 seconds into a 2018 fight against Kailan Hill, who you may remember from his 2019 DWCS decision loss to Impa Kasanganay. Since the 2017 loss to Vanderford, Fugitt hasn’t required the judges in seven straight fights.
Overall, Fugitt relies largely on his grappling and has a wrestling background. His striking defense and chin haven’t looked great, but he likes to rely on his length to throw kicks and look to grapple when things get close. We’ve seen him land a decent number of takedowns in the past, but he hasn’t looked exceptional on the mat. Now he’ll face another rangy fighter with a wrestling background, which will likely make things tougher for Fugitt.
Fight Prediction:
Fugitt will have a 1” height advantage, but Morales will have a 2” reach advantage. Morales is 10 years younger than the 33-year-old Fugitt.
After making his debut as a near pick’em, Morales is now the biggest favorite on a PPV slate. This will be a step down in competition from Trevin Giles, who he faced in his recent debut, and with his debut out of the way we expect Morales to look even better in his second trip inside the Octagon. He’ll have a massive striking advantage in this matchup, and his wrestling background should provide him the tools he needs to defend the grappling of Fugitt. We’ve seen Fugitt get dropped at multiple points and his striking defense hasn’t been anything impressive, so Morales should be able to find the mark and shut his lights off at some point in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Morales KO” at -130.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Morales scored 118 DraftKings points in his recent late R1 KO win in his UFC debut, but that was basically a best case scenario outcome for him where he landed a knockdown and a reversal in addition to the late first round finish. While 11 of his 13 career wins have come early, all in the first two rounds, he’s typically been a pretty patient striker early on in fights. With that said, he’s still just 23 years old so his game should be constantly evolving so changes are inevitable. While his background is in wrestling, he typically relies on his striking to win fights, although he did land four takedowns in a decision win on DWCS just before making his recent debut. However, that still would have scored just 89 DraftKings points and 76 points on FanDuel and he’s very unlikely to return value without an early finish as the most expensive fighter on the slate. With that said, we like him to land a knockout and he’s taking on a UFC newcomer who accepted this fight on just nine day’s notice, which is typically a smash spot in DFS. The odds imply Morales has an 82% chance to win, a 60% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Appropriately named, Fugitt is making his UFC debut on just over a week’s notice and appears to have the deck stacked against him. He’s also only fought once since 2019 and that fight lasted just 43 seconds, so he hasn’t been very active at all. He’ll now step into what looks like the toughest matchup of his career so it’s hard to get very excited about his chances. However, Fugitt does offer grappling upside and Morales is still just a 23-year-old kid making his second UFC appearance, so the potential for chaos is always there. Just keep in mind that Morales is a former Ecuadorian national wrestling champion and likely has the skills needed to defend the grappling of Fugitt. It’s unlikely that Fugitt wins this fight on the feet, so his path to victory appears limited to his grappling. The odds imply he has an 18% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Drakkar Klose
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Klose had been scheduled to face Diego Ferreira here, but Ferreira withdrew and Garcia was announced as the replacement a little over two weeks out.
Klose is coming off the first early win of his UFC career, which came following a two year layoff and against a low-level talent in Brandon Jenkins. We have to go all the way back to March 2020 to find Klose’s second most recent fight, which ended in his only early loss in the UFC in a second round knockout against Beneil Dariush. Prior to that, Klose had fought to six straight decisions in the UFC (5-1). Klose had three fights booked and canceled in between the Dariush and Jenkins fights, but they were all canceled. The most famous of those was when Jeremy Stephens shoved Klose at faceoffs and Klose had to withdraw the day of the fight. What appeared to initially be a minor transgression turned out to be a far bigger deal than people realized. Klose apparently suffered a herniated disc in the incident and is still dealing with the aftermath to this day. He’s said he’ll eventually need surgery for the injury, but he wants to put it off until he’s done fighting.
In his last fight, Klose put on the most dominant performance of his career as he controlled the fight from start to finish. He outlanded Jenkins 66-15 in significant strikes in the first round alone, and finished ahead 76-18 in significant strikes and 77-28 in total strikes. Klose also landed two of his three takedown attempts and two knockdowns as he finished Jenkins 33 seconds into the second round.
Now 12-2-1 as a pro, Klose has five wins by KO and seven decisions. The only time he’s been finished in his career was in the KO against Dariush, with his only other career loss coming in a 2017 decision.
Overall, Klose is generally good at slowing down fights as he mixes in grappling, which makes sense when you consider his last 11 fights have all made it out of the first round, with eight going the distance. With that said, he came out with something to prove in his last fight and after averaging just 3.89 SSL/min in his first seven UFC fights, he put on a blistering pace of 13.69 SSL/min in that last match. Whether or not that will carry over into this next fight remains to be seen. Klose has landed 12 takedowns on 36 attempts (33.3%) in his eight UFC fights, while getting taken down 8 times on 25 opponent attempts (68% takedown defense). While Jenkins didn’t attempt any takedowns in his last fight, Klose’s previous six opponents had all attempted at least three against him. All of those opponents landed at least one takedown against him, but none of them landed more than two.
Rafa Garcia
5th UFC Fight (2-2)After losing a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights, Garcia bounced back with a decision win and a late second round submission victory in his last two outings. Prior to that finish, he had gone the distance in five straight matches, with his second most recent finish coming all the way back in 2019. His two wins have come against a guy making his UFC debut and a UFC retread coming off a two year steroid suspension, so just keep that in mind.
In his last fight, we saw a somewhat slower start to the match for the first five minutes, with Garcia landing one takedown in the round. A minute into round two, Garcia landed an illegal knee as Ronson was returning to his feet following another takedown. The doctor allowed the fight to continue, but Garcia was deducted a point. As soon as action resumed, Garcia took Ronson down again and controlled him for the rest of the fight until he locked in a rear-naked choke in the closing seconds of the round to finish the fight. The fight ended with Garcia ahead in significant strikes 35-25 and in total strikes 73-28, while landing three of his four takedown attempts with close to five minutes of control time.
Now 13-2 as a pro, Garcia has one win by KO, eight by submission, and four decisions. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses going the distance. Garcia started his career at 145 lb, but moved up to 155 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Garcia is a somewhat willing striker, but is pretty hittable and mostly relies on his grappling to win fights. He’s been durable to this point, having never been finished, but he hasn’t been tested a ton. He’s landed 15 takedowns on 31 attempts (48.4%) in his four UFC fights, with at least three landed in each of his last three matches, and double digit attempts in the two of those that went the distance.
Fight Prediction:
Klose will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 70” reach.Garcia is seven years younger than the 34-year-old Klose.
This is a big step up in competition for Garcia, so it will be interesting to see how he handles it. Garcia has landed at least three takedowns in each of his two UFC wins, while Klose has never been taken down more than twice in a UFC fight. Klose should have the striking advantage, so we expect him to be focussed on keeping the fight standing and outlanding his way to victory. Garcia’s grappling should slow the pace of the striking exchanges, as Klose will have to be wary of takedown attempts at all times. We expect Garcia to find some success in getting the fight to the ground, but less than he’s had in his last few fights. We also saw him slow down late in his fight against Chris Gruetzemacher, so the fact that Garcia took this fight on just 16 day’s notice could be a red flag for his cardio. We like Klose to win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Klose DEC” at +105.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Klose is coming off a monster performance, where he scored 134 DraftKings points in an early second round finish. That shows just how dominant he was, as early second and third round finishes generally don’t score especially well. Prior to that scoring explosion, Klose had failed to top 98 DraftKings points in his first seven UFC fights, but had also never finished anybody. He’s averaged 78 DraftKings points in his five UFC decision wins, and while he’ll mix in a little grappling, he has lacked the striking or takedown numbers to really score well without a finish. His recent win came against a very low level opponent, so it needs to be taken in context, and Klose was also returning from a two year layoff and seemed to have something to prove. Whether or not that momentum carries into this next match remains to be seen, but we’re expecting him to regress back to his old self to a large extent. He’ll be defending takedowns throughout this fight and now goes against an opponent who’s never been finished, so this doesn’t look like a good spot for a repeat performance from Klose. It will be interesting to see how much his recent slate-breaking score boosts his ownership, but we’re not expecting him to be that popular of a play. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Garcia’s grappling-heavy approach to fighting always keeps him in the DFS discussion, but this is definitely a step up in competition for him. Klose’s takedown defense isn’t elite, but at 68% it is still pretty solid. We generally see Klose get taken down at least once in his fights, but no one has ever grounded him more than twice. For Garcia to win this fight, he’ll likely need to land more takedowns on Klose than anyone ever has before. That’s certainly possible, but not the most likely outcome. Garcia scored 93 DraftKings points in a grappling-heavy decision win in his second most recent fight, where he landed seven takedowns on 12 attempts, but didn’t add much in terms of offense on the ground. That shows that even with a grappling-heavy decision win, there’s a chance he could still get outscored by other dogs and left out of the winning lineup. We’d also be surprised to see him land that many takedowns against Klose, who has only been taken down 8 times on 25 attempts in his eight UFC fights. The fact that Garcia accepted this fight on just 16 day’s notice also gives reason for concern regarding his cardio later in this fight and we saw him slow down late in the match against Chris Gruetzemacher. Garcia’s recent two solid performances should drive his ownership up some, and this looks like a let down spot for him most likely. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Don'Tale Mayes
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Mayes had been scheduled to face Justin Tafa here, but Tafa withdrew and Hamby was announced as the replacement on July 18th, less than two weeks out. After getting submitted in each of his first two UFC fights, Mayes kept his UFC hopes alive with two straight wins in his last two outings. He’s coming off his first early win in a third round TKO victory over another low-level Heavyweight in Josh Parisian. Prior to that, he won a decision over Roque Martinez who finished 0-3 in the UFC. Mayes was a regular on DWCS as he made appearances in 2017, 2018 and 2019. After getting knocked out in the third round of his first appearance, he notched R2 and R1 KO victories in his most recent two trips on DWCS in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Mayes then got his shot in the UFC in 2019 in a brutally tough matchup against Ciryl Gane and after nearly getting finished in the first round he was later submitted in round three. Mayes also came close to getting finished in the first round of his next fight against Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira, but managed to survive to see a second round where he was then submitted.
In his recent win, Mayes showed a ground game for the first time after landing one total takedown in his first three UFC fights and three trips on DWCS combined. Mayes took Parisian down a minute into the first round. While Parisian was able to return to his feet, Mayes returned him to the mat soon after and quickly found himself in a crucifix position landing elbows. Parisian was able to survive, but mounted no offense of his own in the round. After a brief striking exchange, Mayes returned the fight to the mat early in round two. Parisian was again able to return to his feet, but as Parisian looked for a takedown of his own, Mayes was able to push him back to the mat and end up in top position. That’s where the two remained for the final two minutes of the round. Mayes once again returned the fight to the mat 30 seconds into round three. Once again Parisian was able to get back up and once again Mayes took him down. Mayes again found himself in a crucifix position and hammered away with elbows until Herb Dean eventually stopped the fight. The fight ended with Mayes ahead 25-10 in significant strikes and 117-24 in total strikes, while he landed six of his eight takedown attempts with over eleven and a half minutes of control time.
Now 9-4 as a pro, Mayes has five wins by KO, one by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one DQ loss. Six of his last seven fights have ended early (3-3), although only one of those fights ended in round one. Mayes has actually seen the second round in 9 of his last 10 fights, with the one exception being a 2019 last second R1 KO win in his third appearance on DWCS.
Overall, Mayes is a big Heavyweight who appears athletically gifted but still very green when it comes to MMA. He did show a much improved ground game in his last match, but it’s hard to tell how much of that was simply due to Parisian being terrible off his back. Regardless, Mayes will now face another low-level talent without much experience.
Hamdy Abdelwahab
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Taking the warm body call from the UFC on 12 day’s notice, Hamdy has just five pro fights on his record and two of those were in bare knuckle boxing. Two of his five fights came against the same oddly shaped opponent and he’s yet to face anyone that resembles a professional fighter. Hamdy only turned pro in October 2021, just nine months ago.
While Hamdy is officially 5-0 with five straight finishes, including four in 33 seconds or less, we need to take his record with a boulder size grain of salt as the guys he’s fought would struggle to hold their own in bar fights.
Hamdy’s claim to fame is that he’s a former Egyptian Greco-Roman and Freestyle Olympic Wrestler. He now trains out of the Killer B Combat Sports Academy in New Jersey, a gym known for producing fighters such as Karl Roberson and…Karl Roberson.
Overall, Hamdy has shown decent power against ultra low-level opponents but seems incredibly green and it makes no sense as to why he’s getting the call up to the UFC now other than they just had a slot to fill after Justin Tafa dropped out of this fight. Hamdy has so little actual pro fight time that it’s hard to know what we’ll get out of him, but theoretically he’s well rounded with his wrestling background.
Fight Prediction:
Mayes will have a 4” height advantage and 9” reach advantage.
It’s pretty remarkable that this is a UFC fight, let alone on a PPV card. Mayes relied on his wrestling in his last match, but now he’ll face a wrestler in Hamdy, so it will be interesting to see what his approach will be now. He was preparing to face a pure striker in Justin Tafa, so he was likely coming in with another wrestling-heavy gameplan. So while this is obviously a tough spot for Hamdy as he makes his debut on short notice, it’s also a big change for Mayes. It would make sense for Mayes to rely on his massive reach advantage to pick Hamdy apart from the outside and he also likes to throw flying knees which may be more likely to land against the shorter opponent. It’s hard to know how much Hamdy will be looking to wrestle or what shape his cardio is in, and this fight is shrouded in uncertainty. The short notice nature increases the chances we see Hamdy gas out late, especially when u consider all of his pro fights have ended early and he’s only been in one that lasted longer than 33 seconds. Mayes has only been knocked out once in his career and it came late in the third round of a 2017 fight. So unless Hamdy can pin him down and rain down ground and pound it’s less likely we see Mayes get knocked out in this one. Nothing would really surprise us here, but we like Mayes to outlast Hamdy and either land a late knockout or outland his way to a decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Mayes R3 or DEC” at +190.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Mayes is stepping into his third straight ultra low-level Heavyweight matchup. He won the first two in a disappointing decision followed by a more impressive wrestling-heavy third round TKO. Now he’ll go against a former Egyptian Olympic wrestler, so the chances of Mayes finding success on the mat are lower. Similar to his matchup against Roque Martinez, Mayes will have a massive size and reach advantage, and it would make sense for him to rely on that and pick his opponent apart from the outside. What we don’t know is what Hamdy’s cardio will look like. If he gasses out, Mayes may be looking at a teed up late finish, but if not, Mayes hasn’t proven himself to be much of a finisher on the feet at the UFC level and we could see this end in a lower-volume decision. Mayes exploded for 124 DraftKings points in his recent wrestling-heavy third round TKO victory, but scored just 67 points in his previous decision win. He’s shown a massively wide range of scoring outcomes and averages just 3.75 SSL/min. Considering this is a tougher matchup than his last one in terms of finding success on the mat, Mayes looks more reliant on landing a knockout to score well. The odds imply Mayes has a 62% chance to win, a 39% chance to get a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in the first round.
Hamdy is making his UFC debut on just 12 day’s notice and we have no idea what his cardio will look like, especially since only one of his five “pro” fights lasted longer than 33 seconds. He theoretically has grappling upside considering he’s a former Olympic wrestler, but he also seems comfortable keeping fights standing. With so little cage time in his career, it’s hard to make a thorough assessment of his skills and he only made his pro debut in October 2021. It’s confusing as to why the UFC is even giving him a shot here, but apparently they wanted to keep Mayes on the card and had a slot to fill for Hamdy. Both of these two fighters are low-level talents, which increases the potential range of outcomes, but it’s rare for fighters to win their short notice debuts so it’s hard to get very excited about Hamdy in this spot. The odds imply Hamdy has a 38% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #7
Drew Dober
19th UFC Fight (10-7, NC)Dober narrowly avoided a three fight losing streak with a comeback win over Terrance McKinney in his most recent outing. Dober looked to be in trouble early in that match, but his legendary chin held up and he simply outlasted the explosive, but cardiovascularly challenged McKinney. In fairness to McKinney, he took that fight on short notice and had just competed two weeks earlier. Prior to that first round win, Dober lost a close to decision to Brad Riddell after getting submitted in the third round by Islam Makhachev. He had knocked out three straight opponents leading up to the pair of losses, and Dober is 7-3 in his last 10 fights, with his one other loss over that stretch coming against Beneil Dariush. Six of Dobers’ last seven fights have ended early (4-2), with three of his last four wins coming in round one.
In his last fight, Dober got dropped 10 seconds in by an explosive Terrance McKinney, but was able to absorb the initial blitz and return to his feet. McKinney then appeared to land a flying knee that knocked Dober backwards. Dober tried to take McKinney down to change the momentum but instead found himself on his back. Again Dober was able to return to his feet, although after a brief exchange on the feet McKinney took Dober back to the mat. McKinney looked to be slowing down as Dober again returned to his feet, and as McKinney shot for one final takedown Dober landed a knee to put him on his back and then forced a stoppage through ground and pound. The fight lasted just three minutes and 17 seconds, but it was the third longest fight of McKinney’s 16-fight career. McKinney’s previous six fights had all ended in 131 seconds or less and apparently he only has a half a round of cardio when he operates at just a frantic pace. The fight ended with McKinney ahead in significant strikes 36-17 and in total strikes 43-31. Both fighters landed a knockdown, while McKinney landed two of his three takedown attempts and Dober missed on his only attempt.
Now 24-11 as a pro, Dober has 11 wins by KO, six by submission, and seven decisions. He’s been knocked out once (2011), submitted four times, and has six decision losses. Fifteen of his 17 early wins have come in the first two rounds and the last time he finished an opponent in round three was 2012. Similarly, four of his five early losses have also come in the first two rounds, with the one exception being his recent R3 arm-triangle submission loss to Makhachev. Dober’s other three submission losses came by armbar, rear-naked choke, and guillotine.
Overall, Dober is a powerful, durable brawler who generally comes out ahead in firefights, but often struggles against grapplers. While Dober has six submission wins on his record and wrestled some in high school, he’s definitely not a grappler. His background is primarily in Muay Thai and Taekwondo, where he’s a black belt, although he is also a BJJ brown belt for what it’s worth. He’s got a fire hydrant for a head and the best way to attack him is with submissions.
Rafael Alves
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off his first win in two UFC appearances, Alves landed a quick guillotine finish against Marc Diakiese back in November 2021. Prior to that win, Alves lost a decision in his UFC debut against a really tough Damir Ismagulov. Alves started strong in that fight, knocking Ismagulov down and attempting a guillotine choke early on, but faded after that. Alves has won six of his last seven fights, with his last four wins all coming early.
In his recent win, Alves started the fight with an accidental low blow in the opening seconds, which paused the action before it could ever begin. After action resumed, Alves caught Diakiese with a left hand followed by a flying knee that had Diakiese looking for a takedown. A guillotine specialist, Alves immediately wrapped up Diakiese’s neck and locked in the guillotine to force an immediate tap. That’s the second time Diakiese has been finished in his career, both times coming by guillotine.
Now 20-10 as a pro, Alves has seven wins by KO, eight submissions, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted six times, and has one decision loss. Alves had initially been scheduled to make his UFC debut back in February 2021, originally against Mike Trizano and then re-booked against Pat Sabatini, but he missed weight by over 11 pounds trying to cut down to 145 lb and the fight was obviously canceled. He then moved up to 155 lb when he faced Ismagulov and that appears where he’ll say. Prior to dropping down to 145 lb when he went on DWCS in 2020, Alves had been fighting at 155 lb, and even had multiple catchweight fights at 158-161 lb, although he also spent time at 145 lb earlier in his career. He notably won the Titan FC Lightweight (155 lb) Championship just before going on DWCS. Three of Alves’ last four wins have come by guillotine choke and that appears to be his go to move. While 24 of his 30 fights have ended early, 11 of his last 12 matches have made it past the first round. Only four of those fights made it to the judges, with seven ending in rounds two and three.
Overall, Alves is a Muay Thai and BJJ black belt and a dangerous finisher, but has a limited gas tank and seems to do everything he can to drain it before he even steps inside the Octagon. So obviously he’s not the brightest guy either. He doesn’t throw a ton of volume but has solid power when he does connect. One thing to keep in mind, five of his seven career KO wins notably came in his first seven pro fights, all against opponents fighting for the first time professionally, and another was against a 1-8 opponent. He’s only landed one knockout since 2012 and almost all of his recent finishes have come by submission. With that said, he’s more of an opportunistic submission threat, and he’s only attempted one failed takedown in his last three fights. He’s generally either looking to defend takedowns with guillotine attempts or snatch up opponents’ necks after hurting them on the feet.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8” but Dober will have a 2” reach advantage.
This sets up as a fun fight as both of these two are dangerous finishers who look to end fights early. Dober has been prone to getting submitted by high-level grapplers, but Alves is more so looking to choke out compromised opponents opposed to taking guys down and out grappling them on the mat. So as long as Dober doesn’t get hurt and shoot for a desperation takedown, he shouldn’t be in real danger of getting controlled and submitted on the ground. Dober unquestionably has a major cardio advantage, and as long as he can survive the early blitz of Alves, he should be able to take over in the later rounds. We like Dober to wear on the gas tank of Alves and knock him out in round two. With that said, Alves hasn’t actually been finished since 2016, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him survive to lose a decision to the more active Dober.
Our favorite bet here is Dober’s ML at -190.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Dober is coming off the highest scoring DFS performance of his career where he scored 110 DraftKings points in a first round TKO win over Terrance McKinney. While Dober consistently scores well when he wins, he’s never been a guy to put up ridiculous slate-breaking scores, as he rarely lands a ton of volume or many if any takedowns. He’s averaged 100 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins overall, and if we break that down further, he’s averaged 89 points in his three decision wins and 104 points his seven finishes. Six of his seven early UFC wins ended in round one, and he scored “just” 96 points in his lone second round finish. Now he faces an opponent in Alves who only averages 3.56 SSA/min and is always a threat to lock up a guillotine when opponents look for takedowns. So we’re not expecting Dober to be looking to grapple at all, which appears to leave him reliant on either a first round knockout or a later round knockout with multiple knockdowns landed to return value at his high price tag. Alves has been finished in 9 of his 10 career losses, but six of those were by submission and no one has put him away since 2016. Therefore, this fight has the potential to be a better real life fight than DFS producer. We fully expect Dober to win as long as he doesn’t trip into a guillotine choke in the first round and we like his chances of landing a knockout. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it come in the later rounds and for Dober to get priced out of the winning lineups. That will all depend on what the other high priced fighters do though. We prefer him as a low-risk option this week more than tournament play due to his solid floor. The odds imply Dober has a 62% chance to win, a 43% chance to get a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in the first round.
Alves is a low-volume striker who relies on landing finishes to score well in DFS. His lack of volume also means a later round finish isn’t guaranteed to be enough. That theory is confirmed when we look at the second round submission win he landed on DWCS, which would have scored just 76 DraftKings points. Even in his recent first round finish, Alves scored just 92 DraftKings points as he locked up a guillotine to secure the win. That’s his go to move, which is problematic for DFS as it lowers his chances of landing a takedown or knockdown in a finish. Alves also has some cardio concerns later in fights and has only landed one first round finish in his last 12 fights. He also hasn’t landed a takedown in his last three fights on just one attempt. Dober’s chin is made of granite and he rarely shoots for takedowns, so this looks like a tough matchup for Alves to find a ton of success or have many opportunities to lock up a guillotine. With that said, his last four wins have all come early, and at his cheap price tag he still has the potential to be useful as a value play even without a huge score—but he still likely needs a finish. The field will likely look at how many submission wins Alves has and how many submission losses Dober has and overlook the fact that Alves rarely actually looks to take fights to the mat. So we expect both guys to be somewhat overowned, lowering our interest in having a ton of tournament exposure to either of them. The odds imply Alves has a 38% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Matthew Semelsberger
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Semelsberger narrowly squeaked out a decision win over UFC newcomer AJ Fletcher in his last outing, after landing first round knockouts in his previous two wins. In between the pair of finishes, Semelsberger lost a decision to Khaos Williams. Semelsberger also has a decision win back in his UFC debut against a terrible Carlton Minus. One of the big knocks on Semelsberger has been the level of competition he’s faced, as three of his wins were against opponents making their debuts and the other was a chinny Jason Witt. Nevertheless, Semelsberger has won seven of his last eight fights, with four knockouts and three decisions.
In his last fight, Semelsberger lost the first round but won the later two on all three judges’ score cards, despite getting taken down four times and controlled for nearly six minutes in the fight. He narrowly finished ahead in significant strikes 40-34, but trailed in total strikes 87-54, while landing one takedown of his own with close to five minutes of control time. He was also reversed twice in the match. He initially got taken down 30 seconds into the first round and ended up getting controlled for almost the entire round. He was then taken down twice in round two and once in round three, but was able to avoid getting controlled for much time in either of those rounds and still won both them to get the decision.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Semelsberger has six knockouts, one submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out once, which was in the third round of his 5th pro fight back in 2018, and submitted once, which came in the third third round of his third pro fight back in 2017. His only other loss came by decision and no one has finished him since 2018. His last three finishes all ended in first round knockouts, but the first four early wins of his career all ended in the later rounds, with three ending in round two. Semelsberger started off as a 205 lb amateur before dropping down to 185 lb when he went pro. He then dropped down to 170 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Semelsberger has solid striking and the drive to push the pace in fights. He hasn’t shown much in terms of grappling and is still pretty green in general, but has the physical tools to be successful and has pretty good size for the division. He averages a healthy 5.01 SSL/min and 4.55 SSA/min and has landed three takedowns in five UFC fights. This will be a step up in competition for him as he faces an established UFC veteran for the first time.
Alex Morono
16th UFC Fight (10-4, NC)Entering this matchup on a three fight winning streak, Morono has gone the distance in four of his last five fights, with the one exception coming against the corpse of Donald Cerrone. His only loss in those five fights was against Anthony Pettis.
In his last fight, Morono dropped Gall with a jab in the first round. However, Morono went to the mat with him to look for a finish, which instead gave Gall time to recover. Morono isn’t much of a finisher, with just one early win in his last seven matches, and he was unable to get Gall out of there. Nevertheless, Morono easily outlanded his way to a unanimous 30-27 decision win as he finished ahead in significant strikes 90-65 and in total strikes 93-69. Gall failed to land his only takedown attempt and never got his grappling going.
Now 21-7 as a pro, Morono has six wins by KO, six more by submission, eight decisions, and one DQ victory when his opponent bit him [Who’s the great white now Alex]. Morono has never been submitted, but he’s officially been knocked out twice. In reality, he’s been knocked out three times, but one of those was overturned to a No Contest when Niko Price later tested positive for pot. He also has five decision losses. Three of Morono’s six submission wins were R1 armbars very early in his career, and he’s definitely more focused on looking for knockouts at this stage in his career. He’s confirmed that himself saying, “Knockouts are gold, submissions are silver and decisions are bronze.” So while he’s a 2nd degree BJJ black belt, he’s also a black belt in Taekwondo and clearly prioritizes finishing fights on the feet. His last two finishes have both come by R1 KO and he hasn’t submitted anybody in his last 10 fights. Morono has returned very polarized results throughout his career as 11 of his 12 career finishes have come in the first round as have both of his official KO losses. Of his 29 pro fights, the only ones to not end in either the first round or a decision were a 2014 R3 DQ win for biting, a 2015 R3 KO win, and a 2017 R2 KO loss that was later overturned to a No Contest.
Overall, Morono is a well rounded fighter but chooses to rely mostly on his striking to win fights. He’s only landed four takedowns on 16 attempts (25%) in his 15 UFC fights, with zero landed in 12 of those matches. He lands a decent amount of striking volume, averaging 5.21 SSL/min (4th highest on the slate) and will now be fighting in front of his home Texas crowd.
Fight Prediction:
Semelsberger will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
It would make sense for Morono to look to grapple in this matchup, but we have no confidence that he actually will. He likes to try and put on a show in striking battles, and now he’ll be fighting in front of a crowd for the first time since he got knocked out in 27 seconds by Khaos Williams in February 2020, which also took place in his home state of Texas. Semelsberger looks like the most dangerous striker Morono has faced since that loss, so it will be interesting to see if he can find the same early success that Williams had. This should be an entertaining striking battle and Semelsberger is always live for an early knockout. However, if this fight makes it out of the first round we like Morono’s chances of relying on his experience to win the later rounds to get his hand raised in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Morono DEC” at +225.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Semelsberger unsurprisingly put up massive scores (126 both times) in his two first round knockouts that each came in the opening 16 seconds of those fights, but he also notably scored 103 points in a decision victory in his UFC debut. In fairness, that came in a dream spot against a terrible opponent in Carlton Minus. Semelsberger’s recent back-and-forth decision win scored just 63 DraftKings points, showing a wide range of scoring potential in decisions. Nevertheless, Semelsberger’s high striking output of 5.01 SSL/min, keeps him in play beyond the first round. At his higher price tag it will still be harder for him to return value without an early knockout, but it’s not entirely impossible. Morono has been knocked out at multiple points in the past, including the last time he fought in front of a live crowd, which also took place in his home state of Texas. So the potential for Semelsberger to land a knockout is certainly there. The odds imply Semelsberger has a 59% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Morono has been a R1 or bust DFS play for almost his entire UFC career, with the one exception being a high-volume brawl against Rhys McKee where Morono still scored a massive 126 DraftKings points in the decision win on the back of 176 significant strikes landed, 208 total strikes and three takedowns. Morono’s other four most recent decision wins have been good for just 78, 69, 74, and 71 points. However, this looks like a good spot for Morono to score well in a win, as he’ll have a massive grappling advantage should he choose to use it, which we’re skeptical he will—or we could see it turn into a high-volume brawl on the feet. Either way, the scoring potential is there and at his cheap price tag Morono could easily serve as a value play even without an early finish. Morono has been prone to getting knocked out at times and now he’ll face a larger, more powerful striker in Semelsberger, who has two wins in 16 seconds or less in his last four fights. Because of that, Morono does have the potential to score zero points if he gets caught early, which makes it tougher to play him in low-risk contests. So we’re treating him as a high-risk value play with the potential for a ceiling performance in a pace up matchup. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #5
Magomed Ankalaev
10th UFC Fight (8-1)Rolling in on an eight fight winning streak, the only loss of Ankalaev’s career came in a last second third round submission in his 2018 UFC debut against Paul Craig. Ankalaev bounced back by knocking out four of his next five opponents, however, his last three wins have all gone the distance.
In his last fight, we saw a painfully slow pace which has become par for the course with his opponent, Thiago Santos. However, Santos dropped Ankalaev late in round two after nothing really happened in the first nine and a half minutes. Despite getting knocked down and holding a wrestling advantage, we still didn’t see Ankalaev even attempt a takedown until round four, when he landed his first attempt in the fight. Ankalaev was able to pull away in striking in the later rounds to some extent, but it was a puzzling performance from him when it comes to incorporating his wrestling. The fight ended with Ankalaev ahead in significant strikes 78-60 and in total strikes 114-81. He landed 1 of his 2 takedown attempts and finished with 3:35 of control time.
Now 16-1 as a pro, Ankalaev has eight wins by KO and eight decisions, with his lone loss ending in a last second third round submission. Six of his eight finishes have occurred in round one, one ended in round three, and the other came in found four. His last 10 wins have all ended in either first round knockouts or decisions.
Overall, Ankalaev is a violent yet patient striker, and also has a background in Greco-Roman wrestling and holds the title of Master of Sports in Combat Sambo. However, he typically relies mostly on his striking and he’s only landed 7 takedowns on 21 attempts (33.3%) in his nine UFC fights. On the other side of things, he has a solid 85.7% takedown defense and has only been taken down three times on 21 opponent attempts.
Anthony Smith
18th UFC Fight (11-6)Coming off three straight first round finishes, Smith will be fighting for the first time since his Mom passed away, who he described as his biggest fan. Everyone was writing Smith off (including us) after he lost three of four fights in 2019 and 2020, but he’s proven the doubters wrong as he’s bounced back with three straight first round wins. Two of those ended in submission wins over Ryan Spann and Devin Clark, while the other was a post R1 TKO doctor stoppage against Jimmy Crute after Smith shut off Crute’s leg with a perfectly placed leg strike.
In his last fight, Smith dropped Ryan Spann early in the first round, but Spann was able to recover as Smith looked for a submission on the mat. The fight briefly returned to the feet, but Smith continued to hurt Spann until the two ended up back on the mat where Smith was able to lock in a rear-naked choke to finish the fight. Smith finished ahead in significant strikes 17-8 and controlled the entire fight as Spann never looked good. While Smith never even attempted a takedown in the fight, he got Spann to the ground with a pair of knockdowns.
Now 36-16 as a pro, Smith has 19 wins by KO, 14 by submission, two decisions, and one “N/A”. He’s been knocked out nine times, submitted four more, and has three decision losses. His last 10 wins have all come early, and he’s lost the last three decisions he’s been to. Smith’s last three losses have all made it to the final round of fights, with two going the distance. The only time he’s been finished since moving up from 185 lb to 205 lb in 2018 was in a R5 TKO against Glover Teixeira. He made the weight switch following a 2018 R2 KO loss against Thiago Santos and has since gone 7-3 with all six of his wins coming early and two of his three losses ending in decisions.
Overall, Smith is a BJJ black belt and has proven he’s dangerous on the ground from just about any position. While he has more knockouts than submissions on his record, four of his last five finishes have come by submission, with the one exception being the doctor stoppage TKO win against Jimmy Crute. Despite all of his submission finishes, in his 10 UFC Light Heavyweight fights Smith has only landed 3 takedowns on 11 attempts (27.3%). Over that same stretch, he’s been taken down 9 times on 19 attempts (47.4%) by his opponents. So he actually has more submission wins (4) than takedowns (3) at Light Heavyweight.
Fight Prediction:
Smith will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
Add this to the list of incredibly tough fights that Smith has been in throughout his career. However, we actually have to give the momentum to Smith in this one, as he has been smoking everyone they’ve put in front of him lately, while Ankalaev has been grinding out close and boring decisions. With that said, Ankalaev is so well rounded and powerful, that he presents a much tougher challenge for Smith than the opponents he has faced in his last few fights. While Smith has proven himself to be a dangerous finisher and we’re giving him at least somewhat of a chance to find a finish and pull off the massive upset, we’re still picking Ankalaev to grind out another decision win here.
Our favorite bet here is “Ankalaev DEC” at +110.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Ankalaev has been a R1 KO or bust DFS play throughout his career, averaging 114 DraftKings points in his three R1 KO victories, but just 82 points in his other five wins. He’s only landed one finish beyond the first round in the UFC, which came in a 2019 third round knockout that scored 97 DraftKings points. He’s never topped 82 points in any of his four decision wins, including his recent five-round decision victory that scored just 80 points. Overall, Ankalaev is an extremely dangerous striker and will also mix in occasional wrestling, but he only averages 3.49 SSL/min and one takedown landed per 15 minutes. As the second most expensive fighter on the slate, it’s tougher to see Ankalaev returning value in a fight that lasts longer than five minutes and now he’ll face an opponent who hasn’t been knocked out in round one since 2011. The odds imply Ankalaev has an 82% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Smith’s last 10 wins have all come early, so while his chances of pulling off the upset may be slim, that’s encouraging for his upside if he does pull it off. With that said, the longer this fight goes, the tougher it will be for Smith to score well, as Ankalaev only averages 2.13 SSA/min and has an elite 85% takedown defense. Smith only averages 3.03 SSL/min himself and has just seven takedowns in his nine fights since moving up to Light Heavyweight. So his scoring potential is entirely reliant on a finish and we don’t see him filling up the stat sheet along the way. Ankalaev only has one loss in his career, which came in a last second third round submission against Paul Craig in Ankalaev’s 2018 UFC debut. That at least gives Smith a sliver of hope to lock up a submission, which is how he’s notched four of his last five wins. While this may be the toughest matchup Smith could ask for, we’ll at least call him a cheap lottery ticket play with no floor but a decent ceiling. The odds imply he has an 18% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish, a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Alexandre Pantoja
12th UFC Fight (8-3)Eleven months removed from a second round submission win over Brandon Royval, Pantoja was sidelined for nearly a year after undergoing knee surgery following the win. He’s 6-2 in his last eight UFC fights, with notable wins over big names like Brandon Moreno and Manel Kape, in addition to defeating Royval over that stretch. He’s the only fighter to ever submit Royval and also the only fighter to ever submit Brandon Moreno, although that fight took place on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016 so it doesn’t count as an official pro fight. The two squared off again in an official UFC fight in 2018 and Pantoja won a lopsided decision. Pantoja didn’t just beat Moreno, he smashed him for the whole fight, finishing ahead 30-26 on two of the judges' scorecards. Pantoja’s three UFC losses have all come in decisions against tough opponents in Dustin Ortiz, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Askar Askarov.
In his last fight, Pantoja controlled Royval for nearly three minutes in a fight that lasted just 6 minutes and 46 seconds. Pantoja was able to take Royval’s back just 15 seconds into the first round, demonstrating why he’s one of the best Flyweights in the world as he masterfully controlled Royval who was frantically trying to get away the whole time. Royval looked for a heel hook as the two scrambled on the mat, but Pantoja calmly negated his efforts, looking like he was waiting for a bus the entire time. Royval was able to return to his feet late in the round but Pantoja was the one landing the more impactful strikes. A minute into the second round Pantoja was able to take Royval’s back and return him to the mat as he quickly locked in a rear-naked choke, forcing a tap. The fight ended with Pantoja ahead 22-17 in significant strikes, while Royval led 27-23 in total strikes. Pantoja landed 3 of his six takedown attempts with 2:51 in control time, while Royval landed his only takedown attempt, but had just eight seconds of control time.
Now 24-5 as a pro, Pantoja has eight wins by KO, nine by submission, and seven decisions. All five of his career losses have gone the distance and he’s never been finished in his 15 year pro career that began when he was just 17 years old. In addition to his 24 official pro wins, he also defeated both Brandon Moreno (R2 SUB) and Kai Kara-France (DEC) on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, but those victories are counted as exhibition matches and don’t count towards his official pro record. Four of his last five wins have come early, including three in round one and one in round two. Seven of his nine submission wins have come by rear-naked choke, while he also has a triangle choke and an armbar win on his record. Nine of his 17 finishes have occurred in the first round, five in the second, and three in the third.
Overall, Pantoja is a high level BJJ black belt in addition to being a dangerous striker with rare one punch knockout power in the Flyweight division. He’s been training at American Top Team since 2019, so you know he’s well coached and ready to contend for a title. Pantoja doesn’t land a ton of volume, averaging 4.24 SSL/min, but he makes every shot count. He’s landed 10 takedowns on 26 attempts (38.5%) in his 11 UFC fights, while getting taken down 21 times on 64 attempts (67.2% takedown defense).
Alex Perez
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Hoping to finally make it back inside the Octagon, Perez’s last six scheduled fights have all been canceled or rescheduled. After going through Schnell hell with four bookings falling through against Matt Schnell, Perez also had two matches against Askarov get canceled. It’s now been 20 months since Perez got submitted in the first round of a title fight against Deiveson Figueiredo and over three years since Perez has been to a second round after all three of his 2020 fights ended in round one (2-1). Prior to his loss to Figueiredo, Perez landed a R1 TKO by leg strikes against Jussier Formiga after submitting Jordan Espinosa in the first round. In fact, the only time Perez has made it out of the first round in his last six fights was in a 2019 decision win over Mark De La Rosa. Prior to that Perez got knocked out in R1 by Joseph Benavidez after landing another first round TKO of his own against Jose Torres.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, as he was submitted in just 117 seconds by Deiveson Figueiredo who was defending the Flyweight belt for the first time. Figueiredo wrapped up a slick guillotine choke on the mat, a submission method that Perez has been vulnerable to throughout his career.
Now 24-6 as a pro, Perez has five wins by KO, seven by submission, and 12 decisions. He’s been knocked out once, has four submission losses (three by guillotine), and one decision defeat. All five of those early losses occurred in round one. Perez has won 11 of his last 13 fights, with seven of those fights ending in the first round (5-2), one ending in round two (1-0), and five going the distance (5-0). Two of Perez’s eight UFC fights have been up at 135 lb, both of which he won, including a R2 submission in his 2017 UFC debut and a 2019 decision over Mark De La Rosa. After dropping down to 125 lb and winning a 2018 decision in his second UFC fight, Perez’s last five fights down at 125 lb have all ended in the first round (3-2). Perez also landed a first round submission win on DWCS, which was also at 125 lb.
Overall, Perez has a background in wrestling but is also a decent striker and he throws really heavy leg strikes. Perez has only been taken down once on eight opponent attempts in his eight UFC fights and DWCS appearance (87.5% takedown defense), but hasn’t even faced an attempt in his last four matches. On the other side of things, he’s landed 11 takedowns of his own on 24 attempts (45.8% accuracy).
Fight Prediction:
Perez will have a 1” height advantage, but Pantoja will have a 2” reach advantage.
The times we’ve seen Pantoja lose have come against opponents with solid wrestling and his jiu-jitsu is so good that he’s often willing to give up positions to look for submissions. We saw that in his fight against Askarov where he jumped guillotine 10 seconds into the match as Askarov looked for an early takedown. While Pantoja has never submitted anybody by guillotine and generally chokes opponents out from their backs, Perez has been very vulnerable to getting guillotined. Perez throws heavy leg kicks, but if he doesn’t set them up Pantoja has the ability to knock him out with a counter punch as he has legit power for the Flyweight division. So Perez will need to be careful wherever the fight goes, especially in the first five minutes where Pantoja has been the most dangerous and Perez has been the most vulnerable. Pantoja is an aggressive fighter who spends most of his time looking for finishes, but is just 7-5 with the judges, while Perez is 12-1. So if this does go the distance and Perez is able to keep things close on the feet and rack up takedowns and control time while Pantoja is focussed on submission attempts, it’s certainly possible that Perez squeaks out a close decision. Outside of landing another low percentage leg kick TKO, we don’t really see Perez finishing Pantoja and a decision win is probably his only realistic path to victory. With that said, we like Pantoja to win this fight and think he can get it done in a variety of ways. We’ll say he submits Perez in the first round though.
Our favorite bet here is “Pantoja ITD” at +220.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Pantoja has never been one to score well in decisions, averaging just 64 DraftKings points in his three UFC decision wins. However, in his five finishes he averaged 109 points, with three scores of 110 or more. He did score “just” 98 and 99 DraftKings points in two of his early wins, and his aggressive submission offense will leave him looking for submissions off his back at times, which will typically not score as well on DraftKings, depending on the timing. Perez has only been taken down once in eight UFC fights and is a solid wrestler, so it’s less likely we see Pantoja boost his scoring with many takedowns here. A defensive submission win would make sense, as Perez has been submitted in four of his six career losses, with three of those ending in guillotines and another by armbar. He’s also been knocked out once and all five of those early losses came in the first round. Pantoja has finished his opponents in 16 of his 23 career wins and has nine first round victories on his record, so another first round win here would make a lot of sense and we could see him jumping guillotine early to defend a takedown. If that comes in the opening 60 seconds he’ll put up a huge score on DraftKings, but after that he’ll need to land a good amount of strikes or a knockdown first to eclipse 100 DraftKings points. He’s also fully capable of knocking Perez out or finishing him later in the fight and Pantoja has shown the ability to score well even with a late finish in the past. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 30% chance to get a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Perez has consistently scored well when he wins, as he’s averaged 107 DraftKings points in his six UFC victories. Even in his two decision wins, he still managed to score 97 and 87 points as he averages 2.90 takedowns per 15 minutes. Four of his six UFC wins have come early, with his last three finishes occurring in the first round. However, Pantoja has never been finished and the only real way we see Perez winning here is by grinding out a wrestling-heavy decision. At his cheap price tag, Perez would have a decent chance of returning value in such a scenario, although only one opponent has ever put up a usable score against Pantoja, which was Dustin Ortiz in 2018 (109 DraftKings points), who was able to land seven takedowns on 12 attempts with close to five minutes of control time and two reversals. Deiveson Figueiredo scored just 81 DraftKings points and Askar Askarov scored just 71 in decision wins over Pantoja. Since the loss to Ortiz, no one has taken Pantoja down more than twice in a fight, as he’s improved his takedown defense to 73.7% in his last eight matches. The odds imply Perez has a 38% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #3
Sergei Pavlovich
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off of three straight first round knockout wins, Pavlovich has yet to see the second round in the UFC. After undergoing knee surgery following his third UFC fight, he’s only fought once since 2019, which was just back in March, so he’s now beginning to be more active. He’s still just 29 years old. All three of his UFC wins have come against struggling opponents, so we’ve yet to see him really be tested.
In his last fight, Pavlovich took on an aging Shamil Abdurakhimov, who’s been knocked out in the first two rounds in three straight fights. In a slow paced first round, Pavlovich finally found the mark with just over a minute remaining in the round as he dropped Abdurakhimov with a big right hand and then finished the fight with ground and pound.
Now 15-1 as a pro, Pavlovich has 12 first round knockout wins and three decision victories. His only career loss came in his 2018 UFC debut against Alistair Overeem, who was able to take Pavlovich down and pound him out on the mat late in the first round. Pavlovich hasn’t seen the second round since 2017, when he won a five round decision the year before he joined the UFC.
Overall, Pavlovich is a traditional Heavyweight boxer and his most dangerous weapon is his right hand. He did wrestle growing up and then transitioned to combat sambo, but he hasn’t attempted a takedown in his last three fights, after going 0 for 2 in his debut. He also looked pretty helpless off his back against Overeem.
Derrick Lewis
25th UFC Fight (17-7)Looking to bounce back from a second round KO loss to Tai Tuivasa, Lewis’ last five fights have all ended in knockouts (3-2), with four of those ending in rounds two and three. He finished Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, and Alexey Oleynik over that stretch, while his other oss was against Ciryl Gane. In the win over Daukaus in his second most recent fight, Lewis set the record for the most Heavyweight knockouts of all time. That R1 KO win over Daukaus is the only one of Lewis’ last 16 fights to end in the first round dating back to 2016. Over that 16 fight stretch, Lewis has gone 11-5 with one win by R1 KO, three by R2 KO, two by R3 KO, one by R4 KO, and four decision victories. All five of those losses ended early, with two R2 KOs, a R2 submission, a R3 KO, and a R4 KO. In his 35 pro fights, the only time Lewis has been knocked out in the first round was all the way back in 2014, in what was just his 3rd UFC fight. Lewis’ last two losses have both come on Houston PPV cards, fighting in front of his home crowd, while this upcoming PPV event will be in Dallas, a few hours away.
In his last fight, we saw a slower start with a good amount of time spent in the clinch early on and Lewis landing a pair of takedowns in round one. As Tuivasa returned to his feet after getting taken down, Lewis teed off on him with shots that would put most fighters out. Lewis returned Tuivasa to the mat shortly after, but was unable to keep him there. Early in round two, Lewis charged Tuivasa, aggressively looking for the finish. However, Tuivasa survived and began landing shots of his own after Lewis emptied his tank. Lewis was tired, wobbled, and likely looking for a way out at that point and Tuivasa dropped him with a big elbow along the fence to finish the fight. The match ended with Lewis ahead in significant strikes 27-24, but Tuivasa leading in total strikes 35-31. Lewis notably landed 2 of his 4 takedowns attempts in the match, which is the only time he’s landed more than a single takedown in any of his 24 UFC fights.
Now 26-9 as a pro, Lewis has 21 wins by KO, one by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out six times, has one submission loss, and two decision defeats. His last three wins have all come by KO in under seven with two ending in the opening 90 seconds of round two and the other coming in round one. He’s also been finished in his last seven losses and hasn’t lost a decision since 2011. His last six losses have all occurred in rounds two through four, with four of those ending in round two.
Overall, Lewis is a low-volume power puncher, who averages just 2.56 SSL/min and he hasn’t landed more than 39 significant strikes in any of his last 12 fights. He’ll often look to mix in a takedown or two to keep opponents guessing. He’s pretty agile for his size and will also throw head kicks. His gas tank is limited so we often see him conserve it early on, and it’s rare for his fights to end in round one.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Pavlovich will have a 5” reach advantage and is seven years younger than the 37-year-old Lewis.
On one side of this matchup we have a fighter in Pavlovich who almost never makes it out of the first round and on the other we have Derrick Lewis who has made it out of the first round in 15 of his last 16 fights. So something will have to give here. Both of these two obviously have one punch KO power, which adds a lot of volatility to the mix, but we haven’t seen Pavlovich beat anyone good yet in the UFC and the one time he faced any adversity with the organization he got finished. He’s also never finished an opponent beyond the first round and Lewis hasn’t been knocked out in round one since 2014. So while we generally don’t like betting on guys in their late thirties, it’s a little bit different at Heavyweight and we’re not willing to throw in the towel on Lewis’ career just yet. Lewis has gone 7-1 following his previous eight career losses, with six of those bounce back wins coming by knockout. We like this one to start slow and make it out of the first round, and for Lewis to land a knockout in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight to Start R2 - Yes” at -110.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Pavlovich has been the definition of a round one KO or bust fighter throughout his career, with all 16 of his pro fights either ending in first round knockouts (12-1) or decisions (3-0). He’s coming off three straight first round knockout wins where he averaged 108 DraftKings points, after getting knocked out in the first round of his 2018 UFC debut. This is a major step up in competition for Pavlovich after facing three struggling opponents and Lewis hasn’t been knocked out in the first round since 2014, so we’re pumping the breaks on Pavlovich here, especially after he was 41% owned at $9,000 on DraftKings in his last fight. We expect him to again be popular here and this looks like a solid leverage opportunity assuming Lewis hasn’t gone off a cliff at 37 years old, which we don’t believe he has. While Pavlovich technically leads the slate with 6.08 SSL/min, that number is based on a very small sample size and should be taken with a grain of salt. Lewis averages just 2.51 SSA/min and we don’t foresee much striking volume being landed. If the fight makes it to the second round it will be tougher for either guy to put up a big score without multiple knockdowns laned, which present a clear path for the fight to get left out of winning lineups. The odds imply Pavlovich has a 54% chance to win, a 44% chance to get a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Lewis generally struggles to score well in DFS due to his low striking volume (2.56 SSL/min) and history of second and third round finishes. He’s averaged 82 DraftKings points in his 17 UFC wins, despite 13 of those wins coming early. If we remove his four decisions, which all scored terribly, his average moves up to 94 points, but if we then take out his first round finishes, it drops back down to 86 points. Considering only one of his last 16 fights ended in the first round, that’s probably the most important number to look at. He scored below 100 points in six of his last seven finishes to come later than the first round, with his one big score coming against Alexey Oleynik, when Lewis filled up the stat sheet with a knockdown, takedown, reversal and multiple minutes of control time. That was clearly an outlier performance and Lewis has struggled to score well in later round finishes outside of that. That appears to leave him reliant on either landing a first round knockout or hitting another outlier performance in a mid to late round finish. He has no chance of returning a usable score in a decision. The chances of this fight ending early will drive up the collective ownership of each fighter, but it has a higher chance of busting than the field is accounting for if it makes it past round one. The odds imply Lewis has a 46% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #2
Brandon Moreno
14th UFC Fight (7-3-2)Looking to bounce back from a close decision loss to Deiveson Figueiredo in their recent trilogy match, Moreno now finds himself fighting for the interim belt instead of the real one as Figueiredo sits on the sideline recovering from injury. Since losing a 2018 decision to Alexandre Pantoja, Moreno has gone 4-2-1 in the UFC plus an LFA win, with split/majority draws against Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo and wins over Kai Kara France, Jussier Formiga, Brandon Royval, and Deiveson Figueiredo. This interim title fight will be a rematch of a 2019 fight that Moreno won in a three-round decision.
In their first fight, Kara-France landed a big right hand on Moreno midway through the first round but Moreno ate it and kept on going. While Kara-France narrowly led in striking in the first round, Moreno finished ahead in the later rounds to win a unanimous decision. The fight stayed entirely on the feet despite Moreno having a massive grappling advantage and no takedowns were attempted. Moreno finished ahead in striking 91-82.
In Moreno’s recent decision loss to Figueiredo, Moreno had his lead leg chewed up by Figueiredo throughout the fight. While Moreno was able to narrowly lead in strikes landed in four of the five rounds, finishing ahead 105-86 in significant strikes and 106-95 in total strikes, Figueiredo landed three knockdowns in the fight and led in takedowns 2-1 and in control time 2:18-0:46. All three judges ruled it 48-47 in favor of Figueiredo, but it was one of those fights where it was hard to know how each round would be scored throughout the match.
Moreno has proven he’s a tough matchup for Figueiredo, but it’s worth pointing out that Figueiredo would have won the first fight had he not been deducted point for the only groin strike he landed in the match, albeit it was a bad one. It’s also worth mentioning that Figueiredo was secretly hospitalized the night before that fight due to a stomach infection, which was reportedly related to his second weight cut in three weeks. The second time they fought, Figueiredo again had a rough weight cut and looked terrible at weigh-ins.
Now 19-6-2 as a pro, Moreno has three wins by TKO, 11 by submission, and five decisions. He’s never been finished in an official pro fight, with all six of his pro losses going the distance. With that said, he was submitted in the second round on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016 by Alexandre Pantoja, but those TUF fights are counted as exhibition matches so it doesn’t show up on his official pro record. Seven of his last nine UFC fights have gone the distance, but he did have one fight outside of the UFC in 2019 and landed a fourth round TKO win. His only two UFC fights to end early in his last nine were a R3 submission win over Figueiredo the second time they fought, and a R1 TKO win against Brandon Royval due to a dislocated shoulder.
Overall, Moreno is a BJJ black belt and also extremely durable. His striking has improved throughout his UFC career and he’s still just 28 years old and likely has yet to peak. He’s never been a very high-volume fighter, averaging just 3.54 SSL/min in his career. He failed to land more than 91 significant strikes in any of his first nine UFC fights, before landing 132 and 105 in his two fights against Figueiredo that went the distance. In his 12 UFC fights, he’s landed 22 takedowns on 46 attempts (47.8%). He’s only failed to attempt a takedown in two of those 12 fights, although one of those was notably against Kai Kara-France. While he landed 13 takedowns on 30 attempts in his first six UFC matches, he’s landed nine on just 16 attempts in his last six fights, as he’s become more comfortable striking. Now he’ll go against the 86% takedown defense of Kai Kara-France. Moreno recently switched camps to Glory MMA & Fitness and will now have James Krause in his corner so it will be interesting to see what adjustments they make.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Moreno’s career, and 5th in the UFC. His first was a 2017 decision loss to Sergio Pettis. Then he landed a 4th round TKO in a 2019 LFA fight after briefly getting cut by the UFC. He most recently went 1-1-1 in his three five round matches against Figueiredo, with two going the distance (1-0-1) and one ending in a third round submission victory. So overall, he 1-2-1 in UFC five-round matches with one more victory outside of the UFC. Three of his four UFC five round fights have gone the distance (0-2-1).
Kai Kara-France
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Somehow Kara-France has weaseled his way into the #2 spot in the Flyweight rankings despite going 4-2 over his last six fights and having just one win over an opponent who’s currently ranked. Kara-France made his 2018 UFC debut against an 0-1 opponent who got cut following a loss to Kara-France. Then he won a close split-decision over a debuting Raulian Pava, who’s now 3-4 in the UFC. Next he won a decision over a terrible Mark De La Rosa, who was in the midst of a four fight losing streak and finished 2-5 in the UFC. After losing a decision to Brandon Moreno in his next fight, Kara-France then won a decision over Tyson Nam, who’s now 2-3 in the UFC. After getting submitted by Brandon Royval after that, Kara-France nearly got submitted by Rogerio Bontorin, but escaped to land a first round knockout. Bontorin was recently cut from the UFC and finished 2-3 plus a No Contest in his time with the organization. Then Kara-France took on a chinless Cody Garbrandt, who in an ill-advised move was attempting to drop down to 125 lb for the first time. Shockingly, his chin didn’t improve after cutting even more weight and Kara-France knocked him out in round one, handing Garbrandt his 5th loss in his last six fights. Kara-France finally won a fight against a non-struggling opponent for the first time in his UFC career when he recently won a decision over Askar Askarov, although Askarov nearly submitted Kara-France in the first round. So overall, Kara-France’s first five UFC wins came against opponents who currently have losing UFC records and another was against Garbrandt who has one win since 2016 and was dropping down a weight class.
In his recent win over Askarov, Kara-France initially defended takedowns well but still found himself on the mat midway through the round with Askarov on his back. While Kara-France was able to return to his feet, Askarov remained on his back and continued to look for the choke as he backpacked Kara-France. Askarov looked incredibly close to locking in the submission at multiple points, but Kara-France was able to ride it out until the round ended. Askarov landed another takedown a minute into round two, but Kara-France immediately returned to his feet and took over from that point on, keeping the rest of the fight standing. Askarov briefly took Kara-France’s back on the feet in round three, but Kara-France was able to shake him off without much trouble and win the third round on the feet. The fight ended with Kara-France ahead 51-27 in significant strikes and 64-37 in total strikes. Askarov only landed 2 of his 14 takedown attempts, finishing with 5:14 in control time and Kara-France won a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Now 24-9 as a pro, Kara-France has 11 wins by KO, three by submission, and 10 decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has four decision defeats. Both of his KO losses occurred in his first three pro fights from 2011 to 2012 and his chin has held up since then. Two of his three submission losses occurred in consecutive 2014 fights, and he’s only been finished once since then, which was by Brandon Royval in 2020. Leading up to that submission loss, Kara-France’s first five UFC fights all went the distance. He bounced back from the loss with a pair of first round knockout wins over Rogerio Bontorin and Cody Garbrandt, before fighting to another decision most recently. Overall, six of his nine UFC fights have ended with the judges, with the other three ending in under six minutes.
Overall, Kara-France is a one-dimensional striker, but has shown a solid takedown and submission defense. He’s still just 29 years old and still appears to be improving and adding more power to his striking. He doesn’t land a ton of volume, averaging 4.84 SSL/min, and has never landed more than 91 significant strikes in a fight. He’s also failed to land a takedown in his last six fights, so he relies entirely on his striking to win. He’s part of the City Kickboxing team, so he trains with a ton of high-level fighters.
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Kara-France’s career, but first in the UFC. Prior to joining the UFC, he was scheduled to go five rounds in a 2014 fight that ended in a first round submission loss to Mark Striegl and a 2015 match that ended in a first round knockout win.
Fight Prediction:
Moreno will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
These two were actually roommates on The Ultimate Fighter back in 2016, before both guys were knocked off the show by Alexandre Pantoja. We’ve already seen Moreno defeat Kara-France once, but that was back in 2019 and both guys seem to have improved since then. Moreno has been the more durable of the two, having never been finished in his career, while five of Kara-France’s nine pro losses have come early. Moreno will also have a massive grappling advantage, although he opted not to shoot for any takedowns the first time these two squared off. Considering Moreno fought Figueirdeo three straight times and was never knocked out, we’d be surprised if Kara-France could hand him his first early loss. While it’s possible Moreno could submit Kara-France, we like this fight to go the distance and for Moreno to win a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -146.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Moreno is a low-volume striker, who has solid grappling but generally doesn’t land a ton of takedowns and failed to even attempt one the first time these two fought. He has averaged 92 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, but scored a career low (in a win) with 66 DraftKings points and 75 points on FanDuel when he previously defeated Kara-France. If we extend his numbers in that fight over 25 minutes, he still would have scored just 91 DraftKings points and 111 points on FanDuel. Moreno has only topped 104 DraftKings points once in his career, which is when he was awarded a TKO victory in the final second of round one when Brandon Royval dislocated his shoulder, which scored 119 points. While he would have put up 110 points in the first fight against Figueiredo if the decision had gone his way, he scored “just” 97 points in the second fight and just 49 points in his recent decision loss in the the third match. So while Moreno has a solid floor here, his ceiling is shaky, and at his high price tag there are a ton of ways he gets left out of winning lineups even in a win. Kara-France has only been finished once in his last 21 fights, has a solid 86% takedown defense, and absorbs just 3.51 SS/min, so this looks like a tough matchup for Moreno to put up a ceiling performance. These two also know each other quite well, and were actually roommates on The Ultimate Fighter back in 2016, in addition to having already fought, which could make it tougher for either guy to get the jump on the other, as they should come in with a good feel for one another. We saw Moreno’s ownership steadily increase in each of his fights against Figueiredo (20% > 35% > 51%) until it eventually crescendoed at 51% in his recent decision loss. While we don’t expect it to be that high here, he still projects to be very popular. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Kara-France has been a boom or bust fantasy commodity and scored just 53 DraftKings points in his recent decision win over Askar Askarov. He’s a one-dimensional striker who hasn’t landed a takedown in his last six fights and has never landed more than 91 significant strikes in a fight. This will be his first five-round bout in the UFC and he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes, so we don’t really know what his cardio will look like in the championship rounds if this fight makes it there, as we expect it to. While Kara-France scored well in his UFC debut against a very low-level opponent, the only times he topped 82 DraftKings points in his last six fights was when he landed a pair of first round knockouts against Rogerio Bontorin, who’s no longer in the UFC, and Cody Garbrandt, who was dropping down a weight class and was already super chinny. Moreno has never been knocked out and averages just 3.31 SSA/min, so this looks like a bad matchup for Kara-France. Working in Kara-France’s favor is his cheap DFS price tag, and if he is able to pull off the upset, it’s possible he could serve as a value play even if he doesn’t put up a huge score. He also looks like a better play on FanDuel where significant strikes are more valuable. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #1
Amanda Nunes
17th UFC Fight (14-2)After winning 12 straight fights from 2014 to 2021, including nine title fights, the Lioness was finally declawed in a second round submission loss to Julianna Pena in December 2021. That was the first time the double champ had defended her 135 lb strap since 2019, and her previous two fights had both been up at 145 lb. Nunes still has the most impressive resume in the history of women’s MMA if you ask us, with first round finishes of Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Ronda Rousey, Miesha Tate, and Germaine de Randamie, in addition to two decision wins over Valentina Shevchenko. Following the loss to Pena, Nunes left American Top Team and opened up her new gym, so it will be interesting to see how that affects her moving forward, as her career really took off when she joined American Top Team back in 2014, after going just 3-3 from 2011 to 2014.
In their first fight, Nunes dropped Pena with a leg kick 30 seconds in, but allowed Pena to return to her feet. She put her on her butt again a minute later and that time did look to engage on the ground. Pena was able to grab a single leg to return to her feet, but Nunes quickly tripped her back to the ground, took top position, and worked her way to Pena’s back. Pena continued to make Nunes work as she stayed active from bottom position and looked for a kimura that forced Nunes to be more defensive than offensive from top position as the round ended. Both fighters threw caution to the wind in round two as they stood and traded on the feet for the opening three minutes of the round. Both landed strikes, but Pena consistently landed her jab and Nune’s gas tank was clearly draining faster than Pena’s in the exchanges. With less than two minutes remaining in the round, Pena took down an exhausted Nunes and immediately took her back and looked for a choke. Despite having no hooks in, as soon as she got an arm under Nunes’ neck, Nunes looked ready to tap, seemingly conceding the fight before the choke was even locked in. The fight ended with Pena ahead in significant strikes 79-46 and in total strikes 90-58. Each fighter landed their only takedown attempt, with Nunes leading on control time 3:35-0:25.
Now 21-5 as a pro, Nunes has 13 wins by KO, four by submission, and four decisions. She has two TKO losses, two by submissions, and one decision defeat. Nine of her 14 UFC wins have come in the first round and four went the distance, with her only UFC finish to come beyond the first round ending in a 2018 R5 TKO victory over Raquel Pennington.
Overall, Nunes is now 34 years old and still trying to straddle two divisions. She also has a small child to take care of and seems to be enjoying life outside of the Octagon. After spending all of 2020 and 2021 at 145 lb, it’s fair to wonder if her 135 lb days are almost behind her. With that said, the 145 lb weight class is still more of a fringe experiment than an actual established division, so maybe Nunes doesn’t want to be relegated to the niche group of outcast amazons. If she loses again here, she may have no choice.
Nunes is a BJJ black belt and Judo brown belt and is a well rounded fighter who’s both dangerous on the feet and the mat. She’s already come out victorious in rematches against Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randamie, with both of those rematches going the distance. Nunes does a great job of landing heavy low leg kicks that often take her opponents off their feet. In her 10 title fights, Nunes has been taken down twice on 24 attempts (91.7% defense), while landing 20 takedowns of her own on 32 attempts (62.5% accuracy).
This will be Nunes’ 11th straight title fight and she won the first nine of those, with five of those nine wins ending in round one and the other four making it to round five, with three going the distance. The recent loss to Pena was the only time we’ve seen one of her title fights end in rounds two through four.
Julianna Pena
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Coming off one of the biggest title fight upsets in UFC history, Pena is still just 3-2 in her last five fights, with four of those matches ending in second and third round submissions (2-2). While Pena has submitted her last two opponents, just before that Germaine de Randamie landed the first submission of her career in a 2020 R3 guillotine choke against Pena. We also saw Valentina Shevchenko submit Pena late in the second round of a 2017 match, before Pena took all of 2018 off and then returned in 2019 to win a decision over Nicco Montano. That’s the only time Pena has required the judges since 2016, although she also only has five fights over the last six years.
Pena is now 11-4 as a pro, with three wins by TKO, five by submission, and three decisions. Her lone TKO loss came in a 2012 post R2 doctor stoppage against a very suspect Sarah “Cheesecake” Moras. Pena has also been submitted twice (2017 & 2020), and has one decision defeat. Her last seven fights have all seen the second round, but only three of those made it to the judges.
Overall, Pena is a BJJ purple belt and has historically done her best work on the mat looking for ground and pound or trying to lock up a submission, but showed improved striking in her recent win over Nunes. Pena also looked to be in the best shape of her career for that match and at 32 years old may still be improving after only fighting four times in the last five and a half years. She also didn’t fight at all in 2014 after completely blowing out her knee in training, and only has 15 pro fights in her career.
Fight Prediction:
Nunes will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 69” reach. Pena is two years younger than the 34-year-old Nunes.
Both ladies found success at times in their first match, with Nunes landing solid leg kicks and leading in the early grappling exchanges and Pena coming out ahead when it turned into a brawl in the second round. We expected the boxing exchanges to favor Nunes’ going into that fight, and we’re guessing so did she. However, after seeing how that ended, we’d be very surprised if she was nearly as willing to take part in another brawl and we expect a more calculated game plan from her in the rematch. Look for her to try and do a better job of controlling the distance and utilizing more of her devastating leg kicks. She also showed that she can control Pena on the ground, although her cardio is obviously a concern in a wrestling-heavy approach. So she may be wise to pick and choose the spots she looks to grapple, and also to hopefully look for takedowns before she’s completely spent on the feet. The two big questions we have regarding Nunes are will her cardio look better in her second fight back down at 135 lb and how will she look after leaving American Top Team and starting her own gym? And unfortunately we won’t know the answer to either of those until we see this fight play out.
It’s tougher to say what changes Pena will make, as she won the fight and inherently has less motivation to come in with a drastically different game plan. With that said, she’d be a fool to change nothing up as Nunes is sure to make adjustments. Considering how effective Pena was pressuring Nunes in the second round of the last fight, we expect Pena to try and once again rely on pressuring her with punches. However, she does have solid ground and pound if she can put Nunes on her back, which is something we didn’t see in the first fight. Just keep in mind Nunes has only been taken down twice in her last 10 fights. We’ve seen Nunes slow down in the second round in each of her last two 135 lb fights, with the other coming against Germaine de Randamie in 2019. Luckily for Nunes, De Randamie was a one-dimensional striker and Nunes was able to survive by landing a takedown in that fight and grinding out the rest of the match on the mat. Pena is one of the few really well rounded fighters Nunes has faced recently, so it will be tougher to defeat her in a similar fashion. That could make things dicey in the middle rounds if Pena can once again outlast Nunes in terms of cardio, and another Pena finish in the second or third round makes some sense if we again see Nunes slow down like she has in the past. With that said, we like Nunes to slow things down, fight smarter, and do a better job of mixing in takedowns and leg strikes. While Nunes is always live to land a first round finish, with nine of her 14 UFC wins coming in round one, we like her to grind out a less action packed decision victory to regain her title.
Our favorite bet here is “Nunes DEC” at +420.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Nunes has averaged 112 DraftKings points in her 14 UFC wins and the only times she’s failed to score at least 99 points in victories both came against Valentina Shevchenko (69 & 80), with the first of those coming in a three-round decision win. Nunes’s combination of striking (4.55 SSL/min) and grappling (2.5 TDL/15 min), combined with her history of first round finishes (9 of 14 UFC wins) has allowed her to score 118 or more DraftKings points in five of her last eight wins, putting up 140 or more in two of those. So her ceiling is insane, but because of that, so is her ownership. We’ve seen her check in at exactly 63% owned on DraftKings in each of her last two fights, which took place on massive 14 and 15 fight slates. Because she’s coming off her first loss since 2014 and is now running that matchup back, we could see her ownership slightly reduced, but we still expect her to be massively owned. So if you play her in large field tournaments, you’ll have to work much harder to avoid heavily duplicated lineups. It would make sense for Nunes to try and slow this fight down after fading so hard in round two of her last match, which has the potential to lower her ceiling. At her high price tag, it’s also possible she gets priced out of the winning lineup if she doesn’t put up a slate-breaking score. However, if she does put up another huge score, you’ll be drawing dead if you fade her. So overall, it’s risky to take an aggressive stand here. The two big questions we have here are will her cardio look any better than her last fight and what effect will leaving American Top Team and starting her own gym have? The odds imply she has a 69% chance to win a 52% chance to land a finish and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Pena entered their first matchup as a +600 underdog priced at just $6,500 on DraftKings at 4% ownership, but has obviously seen all those numbers shift after her recent upset win. Still just $7,000 on DraftKings, it’s tougher to see her getting left out of winning tournament lineups if she wins this fight, but she does have a history of landing second and third round submissions. There’s always a slight chance she gets controlled in the first round and then lands an early second or third round submission that fails to put up a big score. We saw that in her second most recent win where she landed a third round submission and scored just 91 points. Depending on how the other underdogs do on the slate, that still could be enough for her to be useful, but it’s not a certainty. Pena typically relies on her grappling to win fights on the mat, but actually did her best work on the feet against Nunes in their first fight. Considering Nunes has only been taken down twice on 24 attempts in her last 10 fights, Pena will likely again be reliant on her striking in this next fight. We expect to see a more prepared Nunes for this rematch, but Pena showed she can win a brawl, so we can’t completely discount her chances of winning once again. She scored 110 DraftKings points the last time they fought, showing that Pena can score well even without much grappling. Despite how the last fight went, we expect Pena to remain relatively low owned, making her an interesting tournament leverage play off Nunes. The odds imply she has a 31% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in the first round.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
We recently partnered with PrizePicks, who offer a new way to play DFS. Instead of competing against other users, you simply pick the over/under on two or more fighters' stat lines (i.e. fight time or fantasy points scored). Receive up to a $100 deposit bonus when you sign up with our promo code: MMADFS
Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
- Edwards Over 80.5 SS
For the rest of our top PrizePicks plays check out our DFS Cheat Sheet in our premium DFS content at: patreon.com/mmadfs.
