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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Batgerel Danaa
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Looking to bounce back from a pair of losses, Danaa suffered the only early loss of his career in a March 2022 R2 spinning backfist TKO against Chris Gutierrez and then most recently lost a decision to Kyung Ho Kang, despite finishing ahead in significant strikes in the pure striking battle. Prior to the losses, Danaa landed three straight first round knockouts against mid-to-low-level opponents after losing a decision in his 2019 UFC debut. Impressively, Danaa’s last eight wins have all come early, with his last five victories occurring in round one and the two before that ending in round two. While Danaa has lost the last three decisions he’s been to, he notably has a decision win over Kai Kara-France on his pre-UFC record, although that was all the way back in 2013 in his third pro fight.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Danaa has eight wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. He has just the one early loss, which came in a R2 TKO, with his other three losses ending in decisions. Four of his last five fights ended in knockouts in the first two rounds and he’s never landed a finish beyond round two. Seven of his 10 finishes have come in round one, with three ending in round two. He’s fought anywhere from 125 lb to 155 lb, but the majority of his career has been spent at 135 lb, including all of his UFC fights.
Overall, Danaa is a dangerous striker with sneaky power and a background in kickboxing. He’s outlanded five of his six UFC opponents and averages 6.22 SSL/min and 4.56 SSA/min. In his six UFC fights, Danaa has landed just one takedown on three attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 3 of their 9 attempts (66.7% defense). All three of those takedowns landed against him came in the third round of his UFC debut against Alatengheili, although Danaa has only had to defend two attempts in his last five fights, which both came in his last match. After facing two tough experienced veterans in his last two matches, Danaa now faces a much greener opponent here.
Brady Hiestand
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)After losing a split decision in The Ultimate Fighter finale, Hiestand bounced back with a decision win over Fernie Garcia in his last fight. However, it didn’t come with adversity as Garcia sat Hiestand down in the opening seconds of the fight, although Hiestand immediately bounced back up and shot for a takedown. Following the loss to Turcios, Hiestand had knee surgery to repair a complete tear to his ACL that he claimed he had fought through on TUF, which resulted in a 15 month layoff. Still just 23 years old, Hiestand turned pro in 2018 when he was just 19 and won his first four fights. However, he’s since lost two of his last four official matches, not counting his two exhibition wins on TUF leading up to the finale. The only time he faced an opponent with even a single pro win prior to going on TUF was when he faced Chad Anheliger in 2019 and got knocked out in the third round.
Now 6-2 as a pro, Hiestand has two wins by TKO, two by submission, and two decision victories. All four of his finishes occurred in the first round. His only early loss came in a 2019 R3 TKO against Chad Anheliger, who has since joined the UFC, while Hiestand also has one decision loss. Hiestand’s five pre-UFC wins amazingly came against opponents with a combined 0-24 record and this kid was raised in a bubble. Hiestand made his 2018 pro debut at 155 lb and landed a submission win, but dropped all the way down to 135 lb for his next two fights. Since then, he’s had two fights at 145 lb, both of which he won in the first round, and three more at 135 lb, losing two of those His only early win at 135 lb came in a R1 TKO in his third pro fight back in 2018. He’s 3-0 at 145-155 lb, but just 3-2 at 135 lb. The only time he’s ever won a fight against an opponent with a pro win was in his recent decision victory over Garcia.
Overall, Hiestand is a BJJ brown belt and a black belt in karate, who is a training partner of Michael Chiesa and Julianna Pena and it shows in his grappling-heavy approach to fighting. In his two UFC fights, he’s landed 9 of his 19 takedown attempts (47.4% accuracy), while his opponents have taken him down on 3 of their 6 attempts (50% defense). Hiestand doesn't offer much on the feet and he’s been outstruck in both of his UFC fights, averaging just 2.83 SSL/min and 4.5 SSA/min. He’s still super green overall and is a low IQ, one-dimensional wrestler, with an overinflated sense of worth. While he’s yet to defeat an opponent who’s ever won a UFC fight, and only has one win over an opponent who’s ever won a pro fight, he’s already talking about winning a world title in the near future and how he could compete with Aljamain Sterling right now. Delusional would be a nice way to put it and we expect him to get humbled in the very near future. In fairness to him, he’s still just 23 years old and should be making improvements between every fight, so it’s possible we’ll see some improvements from him.
Fight Prediction:
Hiestand will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while Danaa is 10 years older than the 23-year-old Hiestand.
This sets up as a striker versus grappler matchup where Hiestand should be trying to get the fight to the mat, while Danaa will be looking for a knockout on the feet. The only thing Hiestand has going for him is his relentless wrestling and he’s a liability on the feet. He got knocked out back in 2019 and was dropped in the opening seconds of his last fight as well. If Hiestand can’t quickly get this fight to the ground, Danaa should knock him out in the first two rounds, most likely in round one. However, if Hiestand can consistently land takedowns and hold Danaa down, we could see him grind out a decision win on the mat. With that said, we think Hiestand is a fraud and like Danaa to knock him out in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “Danaa ITD” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Danaa has been your quintessential R1 KO or bust DFS play so far with all three of his UFC wins ending in first round knockouts that averaged 115 DraftKings points. He’s lost both of the UFC decisions he’s been to and while he lands a good amount of striking volume at 6.22 SSL/min, he’s only landed one takedown in six UFC fights and doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling to boost his scoring. While he’s lost his last two fights, those were both against tough veterans and now he’ll face a lower level opponent who only has one win in his career against an opponent that has ever won a pro fight. However, this isn’t the best stylistic matchup for Danaa, as Hiestand will be looking to take him down, which could limit Danaa’s opportunities to land a knockout. That just adds to the boom or bust nature of Danaa, but we like his chances of landing a knockout here as long as he doesn’t immediately get taken down and controlled for the whole fight. Hiestand has been knocked out by Chad Anheliger in the past and nearly got knocked out again in the opening seconds of his last fight against Fernie Garcia, and Danaa is a far more dangerous striker than either of those two. Hiestand was incredibly popular on DraftKings in his last fight (43% owned) and highly owned in his debut (31% owned), while Danaa could end up being somewhat lower owned after losing two straight, which also adds to Danaa’s tournament appeal. The odds imply Danaa has a 56% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Hiestand’s grappling heavy approach is better suited to the DraftKings scoring system as he has the potential to rack up ground strikes and control time, however, if he puts up a huge takedown total or lands a finish he’ll be useful on both sites. Had the split decision gone his way in his UFC debut, he would have scored 108 points on DraftKings and 96 FanDuel points, however, he only scored 77 DraftKings points and 54 points on FanDuel in his recent decision win. He hasn’t shown us anything on the feet nor has he ever finished a legitimate opponent. He also sounds completely out of touch with reality if you listen to him talk for more than a minute, which maybe isn’t shocking when you consider the combined record of his opponents in his first five wins was amazingly 0-24. Growing up in a bubble tends to distort your reality, and this kid has so little experience against actual professional fighters that it’s hard for anyone, including him, to truly know where he actually stacks up. With that said, he’s just 1-2 in his career against opponents who have ever won a professional fight, and that lone victory came against a suspect Fernie Garcia who’s 0-2 in the UFC. Hiestand is likely in for a rude awakening in this next matchup, and the person waking him up will likely be the doctor after Danaa knocks him out. However, if Hiestand can get this fight to the ground before overindulging in a Mongolian buffet of face punches, it’s still possible he can grind out a wrestling-heavy decision win and score decently on DraftKings. At his cheap price tag, he won’t need a massive score to end up in tournament winning lineups, although it will be tougher for him to be useful on FanDuel without a finish. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Francis Marshall
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Fresh off an impressive R2 KO win in his UFC debut against Marcelo Rojo, Marshall has still never tasted defeat in his young career. Prior to the win in his debut, Marshall put on a complete performance in a decision win on DWCS, where he landed six takedowns and 110 significant strikes.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Marshall has one knockout victory, four submissions, and two decision wins. All four of his submissions came by rear-naked choke, with two ending in round one and two more in round three. While five of his seven career wins have come early, his last four matches made it out of the first round, with three making it to round three, and two going the distance. His first two pro fights were at 155 lb before he dropped down to 145 lb in 2021, where he’s stayed since.
Overall, the 24-year-old Marshall is still very early in his career with just seven pro fights to his name, and only turned pro in 2019. However, he looks like an interesting prospect with a well rounded game and a good team around him. He’s a BJJ purple belt and a former high-school wrestler and football player, and looks strong and looks strong inside the cage. Between his DWCS fight and recent UFC debut, he’s landed 7 of his 13 takedown attempts (53.8% accuracy), while no one has attempted to take him down. He’s also done a good job of landing striking volume, averaging 6.26 SSL/min. He’s generally looking to finish fights with rear-naked chokes, but showed he has knockout power in his last match.
William Gomis
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a majority decision win in his recent short notice UFC debut, Gomis has won nine straight fights dating back to a 2016 submission loss in his fourth pro match, with six of those nine wins coming early. Gomis trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris with Ciryl Gane and Nassourdine Imavov, so it made sense why they decided to give him a shot on the Paris card in front of his home crowd. In his second most recent fight, Gomis had been scheduled to face former UFC Bantamweight champion, Renan Barao, but Barao dropped out and Gomis ended up facing Jose Marcos Lima Santiago Jr. instead. Santiago came in on a two fight skid and has now lost four in a row, so it was obviously a step down in competition. Gomis completely controlled the fight, nearly locking up a standing choke early in the first round, before eventually finishing the fight with ground and pound in round three.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Gomis has six wins by knockout, one by submission, and four decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2016 R2 heel hook in his fourth pro fight, with his lone decision loss coming in his 2016 pro debut. While two of his last four fights ended in the first round, his other 11 pro bouts all saw the second round, with five going the distance.
Overall, Gomis is a well rounded fighter who can compete both on the feet and mat. He’s got good movement and speed, making him a tough guy to hit, and he looks pretty strong in the clinch. He’s still just 25 years old and should be improving between every fight and looks like an interesting prospect. He landed three of his five takedowns in his recent debut, with eight minutes of control time, while also defending both of the attempts against him.
Fight Prediction:
Gomis will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Both of these are young, well-rounded prospects who do a good job of blending their striking and grappling. Marshall had the far more impressive UFC debut, as Gomis seemed overly tentative in his fight. However, Gomis also had very little time to prepare for that matchup and was fighting in front of his home crowd, so preparation and nerves both may have played a factor and there’s reason to think we see a better version of him here. He also has almost twice as many pro fights as Marshall and turned pro three years earlier. While both of these guys have finished most of their wins early, they’ve also each been durable and neither fighter has ever been knocked out. While it’s hard to be overly confident in knowing what to expect from this pair of young prospects, we expect to see a competitive back and forth fight that most likely ends in a close decision. Marshall looks to have more power in his punches, while Gomis is taller and rangier, with better movement. So if Gomis can control the distance we could see him pick Marshall apart with kicks from the outside and outland his way to a decision win. It remains to be seen how the grappling exchanges will go, as they both generally do a good job of landing takedowns, but Marshall has been more of a submission threat. One other advantage Marshall will have is that he’s already competed in the small cage at the Apex, when he won a decision on DWCS, while this will be Gomez first time there. Ultimately, we’ll say Marshall wins a close decision, but we won’t be at all shocked if Gomis pulls off the upset.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -116.
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DFS Implications:
Marshall is coming off the first KO win of his career, which came in the second round of his recent UFC debut and was good for 100 DraftKings points. Just prior to that he filled up the stat sheet in a decision win on DWCS, which would have been good for 122 DraftKings points. So he’s shown the ability to score well regardless of whether or not he gets a finish, but this does look like a step up in competition for him, even if Gomis didn’t have the most impressive UFC debut. That has the potential to lower Marshall’s scoring potential some, as Gomis has good movement, length, and grappling. Marshall’s recent scoring success should also boost his ownership up some, despite this being a tougher matchup than his last one. While he still has a solid ceiling, we’re a little less confident in him returning value at his higher price tag without a finish, and even if he does get a finish he could still get priced out of tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 65% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Gomis has won nine straight fights and won a decision in his recent UFC debut, but it was an underwhelming performance. In fairness to him, that fight was put together on short notice and he was debuting in front of his home Paris crowd on a massive card, so lack of preparation and nerves may have played a factor. However, he’ll now face a tougher opponent than his last one, so it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in Gomis putting on a much better performance in this fight. While he does have the well-rounded skill set to score well, Marshall is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, making it tougher for Gomis to dominate in any area of this fight. The one clear advantage he’ll have is size and movement, which could result in him slowing the fight down and trying to stick and move in space. That would not be beneficial for either guy’s scoring potential, but this fight could play out in several different ways. At his cheap price tag, Gomis could serve as a value play even without putting up a big score, but that will just depend on what the rest of the cheap fighters do. We’d be more surprised to see Gomis find a finish and really score well, but it’s not completely out of the question as he faces a 24-year-old opponent with just seven pro fights to his name. The odds imply Gomis has a 35% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Junior Tafa
1st UFC Fight (0-0)This will be Tafa’s second attempt at making his UFC debut after he fractured his hand a month and a half before the February Perth card and was forced to drop out and undergo surgery. That couldn’t have been easy as he had been scheduled to make his debut in front of his home Australian crowd and on the same card as his brother Justin. Tafa has never seen the third round in an MMA fight and looked like he was about to die of exhaustion the one time he even made it to the second round.
Still just 4-0 as a pro, all four of Tafa’s wins have come by KO/TKO, with three ending in round one and one in round two. He made his MMA debut at Light Heavyweight in July 2022, but moved up to Heavyweight for his next three fights, where he’ll be making his UFC debut. However, he also talked about dropping back down to Light Heavyweight after this fight. He weighed in at 239 lb for his last fight after tipping the scale close to 260 lb at times in the past.
Overall, Tafa is a one-dimensional kickboxer with a ton of power but terrible cardio and no grappling. While he has a lot of kickboxing and Muay Thai experience, he’s still very new to MMA after turning pro less than a year ago. However, he has been one of Mark Hunt’s sparring partners for a while and his brother Justin joined the UFC back in 2019, so he’s been around the game for some time. He looks to land early knockouts in all of his fights and while he’s yet to require the judges in an MMA fight, he would often fade late in kickboxing matches, which are only nine minutes long.
Mohammed Usman
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Usman is coming off an early R2 KO win on the finale of The Ultimate Fighter, which is his only early win since 2019. That recent victory came against a career Light Heavyweight in Zac Pauga, who only moved up to Heavyweight to be on the show and moved back down to 205 lb for his next fight. Usman finished Pauga with a non-chanlant left jab that could say more about Pauga’s chin than Usman’s power. Both of Usman’s previous wins on TUF went the distance and despite his imposing physique he hasn’t been some sort of dominant finisher. Just prior to going on the show, Usman got dropped twice and then submitted in the second round of a 2021 PFL fight, after winning a decision in 2020. That PFL loss came against a 40-year-old Brandon Sayles, who hadn’t fought in three and a half years leading up to that fight and was knocked out in his only match since.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Usman has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision wins. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted once and has one decision loss. All five of Usman’s early wins occurred in the first six minutes of fights, with five ending in round one. Both of his submission victories ended in kimuras in his first two pro fights and his last four finishes have come by knockout. Only four of his eight wins have come against opponents with winning records and he has a 2018 decision loss to Don'Tale Mayes on his resume.
Overall, Usman is overly jacked and relies too much on landing overhand right bombs to do damage. He looks more powerful than he is and he barely made it past two unimpressive Heavyweights to reach the TUF finals, where he defeated a career long Light Heavyweight in Zac Pauga. Usman also looked somewhat chinny and at 34 years old we doubt he’s improving much at this stage in his career. He has a football background, as he played Defensive End at University of Arizona, but he also wrestled in high-school. He will shoot for occasional takedowns, but his wrestling is nothing like his brother’s. He does look to have decent cardio for a Heavyweight, hence the nickname “The Motor” which will be useful in this matchup if the fight makes it out of the first round.
Fight Prediction:
Tafa will have a 1” height advantage, but Usman will have a 7” reach advantage. Tafa is also eight years younger than the 34-year-old Usman.
Despite the appearances of these two, Tafa is the more powerful striker, while Usman will have advantages when it comes to cardio and wrestling. Tafa relies on knocking opponents out early, and when he fails to do that his cardio quickly becomes an issue. His background is in kickboxing, so he’s used to three-minute rounds opposed to five and it shows when you watch him. However, he’s extremely dangerous early on in fights, and even when he’s gassed he has shown the ability to dig deep and still throw out an occasional knockout blow. He’s so new to MMA that he should be improving everytime we see him, so perhaps his cardio will look better here, but that remains to be seen. Considering he has already been talking about moving down to Light Heavyweight, he’ll likely be carrying some extra weight simply not to show up too light. That’s unlikely to help his cardio, so we’d be surprised to see any major improvements. It would be wise for Usman to look to wrestle early as Tafa has no grappling game. That would also negate the early danger of Tafa and drain his cardio. It’s hard to imagine that won’t be part of Usman’s game plan. However, if he’s unable to get the fight to the ground or keep it there, there’s a really good chance that Tafa knocks him out early in this fight. While Usman is capable of wrestling and landed a takedown in each of his first two fights on TUF, don’t let the name fool you, he’s still primarily a striker. That makes it tough to trust him, or either guy for that matter. This fight should go one of two ways. Either Tafa knocks Usman out in the first half of the fight, or Tafa gasses out and either gets finished in the back half or loses a decision. It’s tough to say which of those comes to fruition in this low-level Heavyweight fight, and as the odds indicate, this is close to a coin flip. We’ll give the slight edge to Usman based on him being the more well rounded fighter and having better cardio, but it won’t be at all surprising to see him get knocked out in the first round. It will be interesting to see what Usman’s live line is after the first round, that could be the best option here.
Our favorite bet here is “Tafa R1 KO” at +340.
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DFS Implications:
Tafa looks like a pretty straightforward R1 KO or bust fighter. He’s a one-dimensional striker who won’t add anything in terms of grappling and has terrible cardio. That leaves him unlikely to win a decision, and even if he somehow did his chances of scoring well with the judges would be almost non-existent. Usman has never been knocked out and if he’s smart he’ll be looking to wrestle early, or at least tie Tafa up against the fence. None of that is especially encouraging for Tafa, but we did see Usman get dropped twice and then submitted just before going on The Ultimate Fighter and it’s not like he’s actually good. If Tafa can keep this a striking battle early, he’ll have a decent shot at knocking Usman out and scoring well. The odds imply he has a 51% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Usman is coming off a second round knockout win in The Ultimate Fighter finale, but he did so little leading up to the finish that it still only scored 85 DraftKings points and 94 points on FanDuel. That finish also notably came against a career long Light Heavyweight, and the finish looked flukey and unimpressive. Just prior to that, Usman won a pair of close decisions on TUF to make it to the finals, neither of which would have scored well. Usman’s second most recent finish was all the way back in 2019 and don’t let his appearance fool you, the guy really isn’t all that dangerous. The only thing he has going for him here is that he’s facing an opponent who has terrible cardio and no grappling. That leaves Usman with two glaring weaknesses to expose, and he can wrestle a little and has shown solid cardio in the past. That increases his potential to find a late finish, and we could also see him boost his scoring with grappling. He basically just needs to survive the first half of the fight and he should be in a good spot to succeed. With that said, his general lack of output is concerning and a decision or even a late finish may still not score especially well. His cheaper price tag could still keep him in play, but that will depend on how the rest of the slate goes. The odds imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Norma Dumont
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Dumont is coming off a decision win over a debuting one-dimensional boxer in Danyelle Wolf, who Dumont was easily able to take down in the abc half of the fight once she actually attempted a takedown. Dumont continued to showcase her non-existent IQ in that fight as she waited until midway through the second round to attempt her first takedown and never pushed for a finish on the mat. She’s now fought to five straight decisions (4-1), since getting knocked out in the first round of her UFC debut by Megan Anderson. Dumont’s only other loss came in her second most recent fight against another freakishly tall opponent in Macy Chiasson, who was able to take Dumont down six times and win a split decision. Following the loss to Anderson at 145 lb, Dumont attempted to drop down to 135 lb but never even came close to hitting the mark, weighing in at 139.5 for her one fight to actually happen at 135 lb and having another fight canceled because she missed weight so badly. She still claims she can make 135 lb, but she says a lot of stupid things and she’s even missed weight cutting to 145 lb.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Dumont has two career R1 submission wins and five by decision. She’s been knocked out once and has one decision loss. Her two submission wins came in her first three pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0 and 0-2 and Dumont has never finished an opponent who has won a pro fight.
Dumont is a BJJ brown belt and a black belt in Sanda, which is a form of Chinese kickboxing, so she’s fairly well rounded. She’s never knocked anybody out and hasn’t looked like any sort of submission threat at the UFC level, but her biggest issue is her IQ and she’s just completely clueless about pretty much everything. She has all of the physical tools required to make a run in the division, but it almost seems like she consciously chooses not to use them. She only averages 3.64 SSL/min and 2.04 SSA/min and has been content with grinding out boring decisions and then calling for title shots. In her six UFC fights, she’s landed 7 takedowns on 13 attempts (53.8% accuracy), while her opponents have gotten her down on 6 of their 20 attempts (70% defense).
Karol Rosa
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Rosa will be moving up to 145 lb for the first time in the UFC, but did have three fights at 145 lb earlier in her career (2-1). It’s surprising to see Rosa make the move, considering she’s coming off a win and has only lost once in six Octagon appearances. Her last fight ended in a majority decision win over an aging Lina Lansberg, after Rosa suffered her only UFC loss in a smothering decision defeat against Sara McMann. Prior to that loss, Rosa had won six straight fights going back to before she joined the UFC. All six of Rosa’s UFC fights have gone the distance and the last time she finished an opponent was in a 2019 R3 TKO just before joining the organization.
Now 16-4 as a pro, Rosa has four wins by KO, two by submission, and 10 decisions. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, and has two decision losses. Both of her submission losses came in 2018, one of those was against Melissa Gatto, who’s now in the UFC, and the other was against Larissa Pacheco, who had just been released by the UFC. While all six of Rosa’s UFC fights have gone the distance, her seven fights just before joining the UFC all ended early (5-2). However, only two of her 20 pro fights have ended in the first round and only one of her last 17.
Overall, Rosa is a high-volume striker (6.14 SSL/min) who relies more on wearing down her opponents than overwhelming them with power. Her last three early finishes all came in the third round (2018, 2019 & 2019), and the one prior to that was a corner stoppage following the second round. She also had a second round armbar victory just before that one. While Rosa has shown the ability to wrestle offensively, she really struggled with her defensive wrestling against a powerful McMann in her second most recent fight and will now face a larger opponent as she moves up a weight class. It will be interesting to see how Rosa looks at the new weight class and if she plans on staying there.
Fight Prediction:
Dumont will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 67” reach.
It’s so hard to trust either fighter in this matchup. Rosa is the busier striker, but is moving up a weight class, just got dropped by a 40-year-old Lina Lansberg, threw an idiotic illegal knee in that fight to almost force a draw, and got smothered on the mat for three rounds by a 41-year-old Sara McMann just before that. Meanwhile, Dumont is the bigger and more powerful of the two, but is a stone moron and refuses to throw much volume, capitalize on her advantages, or push for finishes. So while Dumonts should have the power and grappling advantages, it will come as no surprise if she just stands in front of Rosa for 15 minutes and fails to utilize either while allowing Rosa to outland her. With that said, if Dumont does land anything clean or implement her grappling, she has the ability to do damage and control Rosa on the mat, either of which could negate the volume Rosa will likely be landing on the scorecards. However, predicting what Dumont will actually do is an exercise in futility so tread lightly here. We fully expect the fight to go the distance, but Dumont is capable of hurting Rosa on the feet, even if she’s never knocked anybody out, nor has Rosa ever been knocked out. With that said we’ll say this ends in a close, potentially split, decision and we’ll give the slight advantage to Dumont.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +350.
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DFS Implications:
Dumont is a frustrating fighter to play in DFS as she can be content with sitting and staring at her opponent for entire fights, despite having all of the physical tools required to put on impressive performances (other than a brain). She’s completely clueless and entirely untrustworthy, but she was able to score 103 DraftKings points in a 2020 decision victory, which was her only UFC fight down at 135 lb, where she also missed weight by 3.5 lb. She’s averaged 78 DraftKings points in her other three UFC wins, all which have gone the distance and overall averages 85 points in her four wins combined. She’s content with grinding out decisions, opposed to looking for finishes, which caps her upside. However, at her reasonable price tag she has a wider range of acceptable outcomes here and could sneak into winning lineups even without a huge score. She gets a pace-up matchup against an opponent in Karol Rosa, who’s moving up a weight class. We also saw Rosa get dropped by a 40-year-old Lina Lansberg in her last fight after getting smothered on the mat for three rounds just before that. Both of those are encouraging for Dumont’s scoring potential, but prepare to be frustrated if you play here, as Dumont would rather chew on rocks than exploit weaknesses in her opponents. The odds imply she has a 52% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Rosa has impressively averaged 105 DraftKings points in her five UFC wins, with at least 89 points in all of those and 105 or more in four of them. However, for some reason she’s decided to move up from 135 lb to 145 lb despite being 5-1 in the UFC, and it remains to be seen how that will affect her. We just saw her get dropped in her last fight at 135 lb and smothered on the mat just before that. So it will be interesting to see how she deals with more powerful opponents at the higher weight class, but we’d be lying if we said we didn’t have any concerns. Dumont is a tough opponent to score well against, as she fights at a slower pace and only averages 2.04 SSA/min, with no one ever landing more than 47 significant strikes against her. She also has a 70% takedown defense, with the only fighter to get her down being Macy Chiasson, and is overall pretty well-rounded with good power. So expect Rosa to land less striking volume than normal, while she could also get controlled at times. None of that is encouraging for her scoring potential, but her cheap price tag will make it easier for her to crack the winning lineup if she can pull off the upset. We expect her past scoring success and cheap price tag to result in her being pretty popular, which reduces her tournament appeal. We expect a lower scoring performance from Rosa, but she’s still live to outland her way to a decision win. The odds imply she has a 48% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Montel Jackson
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Coming off a low-volume decision win over Julio Arce, Jackson has won three straight and six of his last seven since losing a decision to Ricky Simon in his 2018 UFC debut. While Jackson has dominated in the majority of his wins, five of his last six fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2021 R1 KO over a terrible Jesse Strader, who was making his UFC debut on short notice and later got cut after getting knocked out in both of his UFC fights. Jackson’s only other finish in the UFC came in his second fight with the organization when he submitted the highly submittable Brian Kelleher (8 career submission losses) in the first round. Most of Jackson’s other UFC wins have aged especially well. Following the win over Kelleher, he won a decision against Andre Soukhamthath, who went 2-5 in the UFC before being cut. Then Jackson won a decision over Felipe Dias Colares, who went 2-4 in the UFC before being cut. He then lost to Johns before knocking out Strader (0-2 and cut), and then he won a decision over J.P.Buys (0-3 in the UFC). And while Arce has found more UFC success than any of those guys, he’s still just 5-4 in the UFC and only 3-4 in his last seven fights. Both of Jackson’s UFC losses came in decisions against grapplers, with the decision loss to Ricky Simon in his UFC debut and then a 2020 loss to Brett Johns.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Jackson has six wins by KO, one submission, and five decision victories. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses ending in decisions. Jackson fought his first pro fight at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb for his second pro match. However, he then moved all the way down to 135 lb for his third pro bout, where he’s stayed ever since. At 5’10” with a 75” reach and massive hands, he’s got good size and length for the division. He offers exceptional wrist control, pinning opponents’ arms back like someone picking on their little brother.
Overall, Jackson has a background in wrestling and was originally striving to compete in the Olympics before changing his focus to MMA. His patient fighting style, long reach and strong wrestling skills have kept the striking volume in check for all of his UFC fights. He only averages 3.39 SSL/min and 1.40 SSA/min and none of his UFC opponents have landed more than 30 significant strikes against him and he’s never landed more than 75 significant strikes. Even in his two career losses, Jackson outlanded his opponents, but ended up getting outwrestled in those matches. Between his eight UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Jackson has lended 25 of his 35 takedown attempts (71.4% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 19 of their 59 attempts (67.8% defense). His last five opponents who tried to take him down all landed at least one of their attempts, but the only fighters to get him down more than once in the UFC were Ricky Simon and Brett Johns, who combined to land 15 of their 39 attempts. Jackson’s other six UFC opponents combined to land just 4 of their 20 attempts. Prior to his recent win over Arce where he failed to land any of his three takeoff attempts, Jackson had landed at least two takedowns in each of his UFC fights that made it past the first round. Jackson has landed at least one knockdown in five straight fights, and amazingly has seven over his last three matches.
Rani Yahya
20th UFC Fight (13-4-1, NC)Yahya had been booked against Cody Garbrandt at two different points in 2022, but ended up withdrawing both times due to injury. He suffered a potentially career ending neck injury, but was able to eventually resume training and get a new fight booked. The last time we saw him in action was in a November 2021 decision win over Kyung Ho Kang and despite 24 of his 40 pro fights ending early, three of his last four matches have gone the distance. The one exception was a 2021 R2 submission win over Ray Rodriguez, who went 0-2 in the UFC with two submission losses. Prior to that finish, Yahya fought Enrique Barzola to a draw, where Barzola had a 10-8 third round after losing the first two rounds. That came just after Yahya lost a 2019 decision to Ricky Simon. However, leading up to that loss Yahya submitted three straight opponents and 7 of his 13 UFC wins have come by submission, with the other six going the distance.
Now 28-10-1 as a pro, Yahya has 21 career submission wins and seven decision victories. He’s also been knocked out twice (R2 2007 & R1 2009) and submitted once (R1 2006), but hasn’t been finished since 2009, before he joined the UFC. His other seven losses all went the distance. Of his seven UFC submission wins, three came in round one, two in round two, and two in round three. Yahya fought as high as 154 lb early in his pro career and started at 145 lb in the UFC, where he went 4-2 in his first six fights with the organization. However, he dropped down to 135 lb in 2014 where he’s since gone 9-2-1 plus a No Contest.
Overall, the 38-year-old Yahya is a one-dimensional submission specialist and only uses his striking to set up takedowns, but does have a black belt in Muay Thai in addition to being a second degree BJJ black belt. He’s a three time BJJ world champion and Abu Dhabi gold medalist and offers elite grappling skills. He’ll get opponents to the ground any way he can, whether that’s by traditional takedowns, pulling guard or grabbing an ankle. Because of that, his takedowns landed are solid, but not overwhelming at 2.9 per 15 minutes. In his last 10 fights, he’s landed 21 of his 61 takedown attempts (34.4% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 9 of their 14 attempts (35.7% defense). However, the only opponent to get him down more than once over that stretch was Ricky Simon, who landed four of his five attempts and also landed a pair of knockdowns as he defeated Yahya in a decision. We rarely see much striking volume in Yahya’s fights, as he only averages 1.58 SSL/min and 1.76 SSA/min and Yahya has never landed more than 59 significant strikes in a fight and has only topped 40 twice. He’s also never absorbed more than 57 significant strikes. Yahya turned pro all the way back in 2002 and after 17 months away and coming off a neck injury you have to wonder about how much he has left in the tank, but he’s always a dangerous grappler.
Fight Prediction:
Jackson will have a 4” height advantage and 8” reach advantage, in addition to being eight years younger than the 38-year-old Yahya.
Both of these two have grappling/wrestling backgrounds, but Jackson is the much more dangerous striker and is also the younger and faster fighter. That will leave Yahya reliant on getting the fight to the ground where he’s extremely dangerous hunting for submissions and also has the ability to grind out decision wins. Both of Jackson’s UFC losses came against wrestlers and his takedown defense has been far from impenetrable, with the last five fighters who tried to take him down all finding some level of success. So while this fight should be all Jackson on the feet, things will get dicey if/when it hits the mat. Jackson has gone the distance in five of his last six fights and only has one KO/TKO win in the UFC, while Yahya hasn’t been finished since 2009, it’s hard to be overly confident in Jackson finishing him. That should leave Yahya with ample time to hunt for takedowns and submissions, so it’s kind of surprising that he’s quite as large of a favorite as he is. We expect to see some back and forth grappling exchanges with Yahya threatening submissions and Jackson forced to play defense on the mat. However, if Yahya can’t quickly get the fight to the ground, Jackson should pick him apart from the outside with a really good chance of landing one or more knockdowns. That could make the fight tougher to score, as the judges will be weighing striking versus grappling. Jackson is the more athletic and more well-rounded fighter and Yahya is a 38-year-old coming off a neck injury and a year and a half layoff, so we’ll still give the advantage to Jackson to win the fight. However, we still think the far more experienced Yahya has a better chance of pulling off the upset than the odds indicate and he’s a much more dangerous submission threat than Jackson. While a Yahya submission or Jackson knockout are both possible, we like this fight to go the distance.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +205.
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DFS Implications:
Jackson is coming off the lowest scoring win of his career where he only scored 73 DraftKings points in a low-volume decision victory where he failed to land any of his three takedown attempts. Prior to that, Jackson had averaged an absurd 120 DraftKings points in his first five UFC wins, scoring 109 or more in the last four of those. However, his big scores have come against lower level opponents and when he’s faced stiffer competition he’s generally struggled to both win and score well. While it’s hard to know how much the 38-year-old Yahya has left in the tank following a neck injury and a year and a half layoff, at his best he would present a serious problem for Jackson. That at least creates some uncertainty here, but it’s also entirely possible Yahya has gone off a cliff at this stage in his career. Neither of these two offer much in terms of striking volume, and it would be foolish for Jackson to be looking to take Yahya down. That should leave Jackson more dependent on landing a knockout to score well, and five of his last six fights have gone the distance, while Yahya hasn’t been knocked out since 2009. It’s also possible that Yahya forces Jackson into a grappling battle by pulling guard, so there’s always a chance Jackson can tack on some control time and reversals even if he isn’t looking for takedowns, but he’s far less trustworthy than normal in this fight. He’s also the most expensive fighter on the card, so even if he does find a finish there are multiple ways he gets priced out of winning tournament lineups. Just keep in mind, he’ll have a massive striking advantage and has landed at least one knockdown in five straight fights and seven in his last three matches, so he still has solid upside even if he’s less likely than normal to hit it. Jackson’s massive scoring ability typically results in him being very popular, and he was 60% owned in his second most recent fight. However, we saw that number drop all the way down to 25% in his last match, so it will be interesting to see what the field does here following his recent low scoring win. The odds imply he has an 82% chance to win, a 56% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Yahya has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his 13 UFC wins and only once scored below 88 points. Four of his last five wins have come by submission and even in his last decision win he still scored 105 DraftKings points, although just 59 points on FanDuel. That shows he’s entirely reliant on landing a submission to score well on FanDuel, but can still get there in a grappling-heavy decision on DraftKings. While this is obviously a really tough matchup for Yahya as he comes in as the biggest underdog on the card, he’s always live to land a submission and Jackson has been taken down by his last five opponents who tried. While Jackson has never been finished in his career, both of his UFC losses came against wrestlers, so it’s not crazy to think Yahya takes him down and grinds out a decision if he can’t find a submission. However, Jackson will have a major advantage on the feet and Yahya will be at risk of getting knocked out if this fight stays standing. It’s also hard to gauge Yahya’s current form as he’s 38 years old and coming off a neck injury and 17 month layoff. That creates the potential for him to look dramatically worse than the last time we saw him, and it’s not like he’s suddenly going to look better. That makes him a risky play, but if he can pull off the upset he’ll likely end up in the winning DraftKings lineup as the cheapest fighter on the card. The odds imply he has an 18% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Ricky Glenn
9th UFC Fight (4-3-1)Coming off an 18 month layoff, Glenn hasn’t competed since October 2021 when he fought Grant Dawson to a draw. He had been scheduled to face Drew Dober in March 2022 but ended up completely tearing a tendon attached to his groin just before the fight and has spent the last year recovering. This isn’t the first time Glenn has been shelved for a period of time due to injury and following a 2018 decision loss we didn’t see him inside the Octagon for nearly three years after undergoing hip surgery. He finally returned in June 2021 and didn’t waste any time getting back on track as he landed a 37 second R1 knockout against Joaquim Silva that included two knockdowns. That’s his only win since 2018, with his only other recent fight being the draw against Dawson.
Now 22-6-2 as a pro, Glenn has 13 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted twice (R1 2009 & R3 2014) and has four decision losses. While 18 of his 30 pro fights have ended early, seven of his eight UFC fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being the R1 KO win over Joaquim Silva. Prior to that R1 KO win, Glenn had seen the second round in 19 straight fights, so it’s extremely rare to see his fights end in the opening five minutes. Glenn spent most of his career at 145 lb, but did make his UFC debut at 155 lb. However, after losing a decision there he moved back down to 145 lb, where he stayed until his 2021 return from hip surgery where he returned to 155 lb, where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Glenn is sort of a tough guy to pin down. He’s decently well rounded and is a BJJ brown belt, but he almost never lands any takedowns. He’s also shown the ability to put up a big striking total, but only averages 4.03 SSL/min. We’ve seen him both dominate and get dominated in UFC fights. All but one of his UFC fights ended with the judges, but the one exception ended in just 37 seconds. In his eight UFC fights, Glenn has only landed 4 of his 19 takedown attempts (13.8% accuracy), with all four of those takedowns coming in his dominant 2017 decision win over Gavin Tucker. He’s failed to land a single takedown in his last five fights and didn’t even attempt any in three of his last four matches. On the other side of things, his opponents have gotten him down on 14 of their 44 attempts (68.2% defense). He’s gone just 1-2-1 in his four UFC fights where he’s been taken down, with all four of those fights going the distance and two of them being split (1-0-1). Glenn had been training at Team Alpha Male earlier in his UFC career, but following the loss to 2018 Aguilar he switched to Absolute MMA and Fitness and moved from California back to Iowa, where he’s originally from. Glenn was on his way to losing a decision in his last fight, but he leaned on his cardio late in the match and outlasted Grant Dawson to secure a 10-8 third round and force a draw. So while there are a lot of uncertainties with Glenn, his cardio does not appear to be one of them. That will be especially useful in this next fight as he takes on an opponent who generally struggles with his cardio.
Christos Giagos
12th UFC Fight (5-6)Giagos has been finished in the first round in each of his last two fights, but in fairness to him those defeats came against Arman Tsarukyan and Thiago Moises. The UFC has put Giagos through the gauntlet in his two stints with the organization, and his other UFC losses came against Gilbert Burns, Chris Wade, Charles Oliveira, and Drakkar Klose. He’s been prone to getting submitted and Burns, Oliveira, and Moises were all easily able to submit him, while Tsarukyan knocked him out. While Giagos has faced a slew of really tough opponents, he’s also faced numerous terrible opponents and Giagos has had one of the most polarized strength of schedules we’ve ever seen. Giagos originally joined the UFC in 2014, but after going 2-2 he was released. After going 4-2 in his next six fights outside of the UFC, they brought him back to lose to Charles Oliveira in 2018, and Giagos has now gone 4-4 in his second UFC stint. His UFC wins have all come against absolutely terrible opponents who generally struggle on the mat, with his last three victories coming against Sean Soriano, Carlton Minus, and Damir Hadzovic. The current combined UFC record of the five opponents Giagos has beaten is 5-19-1, with four of those wins belonging to Damir Hadzovic. The other four opponents insanely have a combined UFC record of just 1-14-1 and have all been cut.
Now 19-10 as a pro, Giagos has seven wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and eight decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted five times, and has three decision losses. Prior to getting finished in the first round of each of his last two fights, he had seen the second round in ten straight matches, with eight of those going the distance. The only time he’s finished anybody since 2016 was in a 2021 R2 submission win over a one-dimensional striker in Sean Soriano. Most of his finishes came very early in his career, and he’s settled into being a grappling-heavy decision grinder.
Overall, Giagos is a low-volume striker and relies heavily on his wrestling to win fights. He’s landed 22 takedowns on 53 attempts (41.5%) in his 11 UFC fights, but he’s 0-5 in UFC fights where he’s failed to land a takedown and has never won a UFC fight where he didn’t finish ahead in takedowns. While he likes to wrestle a good amount, he’s not a good grappler and is very prone to getting submitted. He also has bad cardio and tends to slow down later in fights. All around he’s just not that great of a fighter, and can only win when given easy matchups. He recently moved from the west coast to Florida leading up to his last couple of fights, and he now trains at Sanford MMA.
Fight Prediction:
Glenn will have a 2” height advantage, while Giagos will have a 1” reach advantage.
Both of these two are somewhat geared to test the weakness of the other. Glenn has struggled in fights when he gets taken down, but has good cardio, while Giagos has only found success when landing takedowns, but has bad cardio. We expect Giagos to be looking to rely on his wrestling, but that will drain on his gas tank and likely allow Glenn to take over late in the fight, assuming we make it there. Glenn is far better than any of the guys that Giagos has beaten and we’d be surprised to see Giagos get the win here, even if he is able to find some early wrestling success. He’s highly prone to getting submitted, and while Glenn hasn’t submitted anybody since 2011, it’s not impossible he’s able to wrap something up here. However, if that doesn’t happen then we expect this to end in a close decision, with Giagos potentially winning the first part of the fight through his wrestling, but Glenn taking over in the back half. If Giagos completely gasses out then Glenn could be looking at a teed up third round finish, but otherwise we like him to win a close, potentially split, decision.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -140.
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DFS Implications:
Glenn has gone the distance in seven of his eight UFC fights and has only scored above 61 DraftKings points twice in eight UFC appearances. However, in those two higher scores, he was able to put up 140 and 139 DraftKings points, and he’s been one of the more polarizing scorers out there. One of those smash spots came in a decision win over Gavin Tucker where the referee refused to stop the fight and Glenn landed a million strikes late in the match, while the other was a R1 KO where he landed two knockdowns while still notching the 60 second quick win bonus. However, he only scored 52 and 61 DraftKings points in his other two UFC wins and now he’ll be going against an opponent who will be looking to take him down. That will lower his chances of putting up a big striking total, but if Giagos completely gasses out then it’s always possible we see a repeat of the Gavin Tucker performance. The only other way we see Glenn scoring well is with a well timed finish and at his expensive price tag he’s still unlikely to crack winning lineups, especially when you consider he only has one early win since 2016. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Giagos is not very good, but his wrestling-heavy style of fighting is conducive to scoring well on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 98 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins. However, it’s important to look at who those wins have come against, with four of those opponents combining to go 1-14-1 in the UFC and the other being Damir Hadzovic, who is 4-5 with the organization and completely helpless off his back. While Glenn doesn’t have the best defensive wrestling, he’s still significantly better than anyone Giagos has ever beaten, and we’d be somewhat surprised to see Giagos pull off the upset here. Giagos is also prone to getting finished, especially by submission, and has bad cardio. So there are plenty of red flags to point to and overall it’s tough to get excited about playing him unless he’s in a dream matchup, which this isn’t. However, if he is able to grind out another wrestling-heavy decision win, it will likely be enough for him to end up in the winning DraftKings lineup at his cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Jeremiah Wells
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Continuing to smash everyone they put in front of him, Wells has finished five straight opponents in under eight minutes, with his last two wins both coming in the first round. The last time he lost a fight was in a 2019 five-round decision for the CES Welterweight belt. He bounced back with a 22 second R1 knockout and followed it up with a second round submission win for that same belt after the previous winner vacated it. Wells then made his short notice UFC debut against longtime UFC veteran Warlley Alves and knocked him out 30 seconds into the second round. The UFC then gave Wells a teed up dream grappling matchup against Blood Diamond and Wells took full advantage of it, submitting Diamond late in the first round. Wells then took on another UFC veteran in his last match against a very durable Court McGee, who only had one early loss in his previous 30 fights (R1 KO 2016). That stat quickly went up in smoke as Wells knocked him out in just 94 seconds.
Now 11-2-1 as a pro, Wells has five wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and two decision victories. He’s never been finished and both of his losses ended in five-round decisions. Four of his five knockout wins occurred in the first round, while the other came 30 seconds into round two. Conversely, three of his four submission wins occurred in round two, while the most recent came in the final 30 seconds of round one. While his last five fights have all ended early, five of his six prior to those went the distance, including three five-round decisions.
Overall, Wells is a BJJ black belt and an explosive and well-rounded fighter, who’s shown the ability to knock opponents out and submit them. In his three UFC fights, he landed just one of his eight takedown attempts (12.5% accuracy), while he defended the only attempt against him. However, he was able to lock up a submission the one time he did land a takedown. He’s a former training partner of Paul Felder, who on the broadcast seemed very concerned about his cardio in his debut, as he brought it up multiple times in the first round. Obviously Felder has knowledge that we don’t from when they trained together and his level of concern seems telling. We’ve yet to see Wells extended past the six minute mark since joining the UFC, and his gas tank hasn’t been tested, but there are several reasons to question it. While he’s fought to three five-round decisions, he went just 1-2 in those fights and also has just one three-round decision win on his resume (his only other three-round decision was a draw). Fighters that are as explosive as he is also typically run into cardio issues. Wells looked more tentative early in his career but has been far more offensive in his last several fights, which could also come at the expense of his cardio. It will be interesting to see how he holds up in the later rounds if he ever gets there again.
Matthew Semelsberger
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Fresh off a massive upset win over Jake Matthews, Semelsberger pulled off the win in a decision as a +250 underdog and did so in impressive fashion as he knocked Matthews down three times in the fight. Matthews had previously only been knocked down once in his first 17 UFC fights. That was the third straight decision Semelsberger has been to, after he narrowly defeated a debuting A.J. Fletcher and then lost to Alex Morono leading up to his last win. In fact, five of Semelsberger’s seven UFC fights have gone the distance and the only stoppages were a couple of 15 and 16 second R1 KO wins against a pair of fragile foes in Martin Sano and Jason Witt. Semelsberger showed his durability when he went the distance with Khaos Williams, but ultimately lost the fight. He also got a layup in his UFC debut against a terrible Carlton Minus. We’ve consistently seen Semelsberger exert his will on low-level fighters, but fight to close decisions against more legitimate competition.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Semelsberger has six knockouts, one submission, and four decision wins. His last three finishes all ended in first round knockouts, but the first four early wins of his career all ended in the later rounds, with three ending in round two. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. His two early losses both ended in the third round early in his career and no one has finished him since 2018. The first of those losses occurred at 185 lb where Semelsberger fought his first three pro fights. Following the first loss of his career he dropped down to 170 lb, where he’s pretty much stayed other than one quick trip back up to 185 lb in 2019. He even fought as high as 205 lb as an amateur.
Overall, Semelsberger has solid striking and the drive to push the pace in fights. He hasn’t shown a whole lot in terms of grappling, but he will mix it up with occasional takedown attempts and in his seven UFC fights he’s landed 7 of his 9 attempts (77.8% accuracy). He’s also been taken down by his opponents on 5 of their 13 attempts (61.5% defense). He has all the physical tools to be successful, with solid power and good size for the division. He averages 4.60 SSL/min and 4.57 SSA/min, although after landing 118 significant strikes in his UFC debut, he’s yet to land more than 74 in his last six fights. However, he’s shown the ability to keep a solid pace for 15 minutes and you can’t question his heart.
Fight Prediction:
Semelsberger will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also six years younger than the 36-year-old Wells.
This sets up as a fun scrap between two dangerous fighters. Wells will have a grappling advantage, but is considerably smaller than Semelsberger, which could make it tougher for Wells to consistently get him down. We expect Semelsberger to have the cardio advantage, although we’ve yet to see Wells extended past the six minute mark in a UFC fight. Wells has never been finished in his career, but if he can’t get Semelsberger out of there early, we could see him fade in round two and for Semelsberger to take over in the back half of the fight and either land a late knockout or more likely make a decision very tight. It’s been four and a half years since anybody finished Semelsberger, so both guys have been pretty durable, although the same could have been said in Wells’ last fight. While Wells has only landed one of his eight takedown attempts in the UFC, if he can get the fight to the mat he’ll have a decent at locking up a submission. That would be the smartest approach for him to negate the power of Semelsberger. We agree with the oddsmakers that this is a close fight, but we’ll give the slight advantage to the more well-rounded and experienced fighter in Wells, who has multiple ways to land a finish or win a close decision. Well say he finds a finish in the first two rounds, however, his unknown cardio and the sheer size of Semelsberger both make us a little nervous with this pick.
Our favorite bet here is Wells’ ML at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Wells has finished all three of his UFC opponents in under six minutes, averaging 103 DraftKings points, with his last two wins both coming in round one. However, we still don’t know much about his current cardio levels and he’s so explosive that we expect to see him slow down later in fights if he ever gets there. However, he hasn’t been past the second round since 2019, and that was in a much slower paced match. Wells was impressively able to knock out a really durable Court McGee in his last fight, but now he’ll get another pretty durable opponent here. Eventually someone is going to extend Wells deeper into a fight, it’s just a matter of who that will be. Wells only averages 3.68 SSL/min and has only landed one takedown in his three UFC fights, so he doesn't look like a guy that will score very well when he’s unable to find an early finish. We’ve seen Wells’ ownership progressively rise, and after being just 14% owned on DraftKings in his UFC debut, he was 28% owned for his next fight and then 39% owned most recently. He’s still reasonably priced and just knocked out McGee, so we see no reason for the field to bail on him now. That lowers his tournament appeal and also creates an interesting leverage opportunity by fading him, although that’s not the easiest pill to swallow and could easily backfire. The odds imply he has a 51% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Semelsberger has averaged 104 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, despite three of those going the distance. He unsurprisingly put up massive scores (126 both times) in his two first round knockouts that each came in the opening 16 seconds of fights and included the Quick Win Bonus, but he also notably scored 103 points in a decision victory in his UFC debut and then 102 points in his most recent decision with the help of three knockdowns. However, the one time he faced an opponent who was really looking to grapple, Semelsberger scored just 63 points in a decision win after getting taken down four times and controlled for nearly six minutes. Now he’ll go up against a BJJ black belt in Wells, who will often look to get fights to the mat when he’s not knocking opponents out on the feet. That could make it tougher for Semelsberger to land a ton of volume and could also make him less motivated to shoot for any takedowns. That will make it harder for him to score well in a decision, unless Wells completely gasses out and Semelsberger goes nuclear late in the fight. More likely, Semelsberger will need to hand Wells the first early loss of his career to put up a big score. The field has been reluctant to fully get on board with Semelsberger, and he was just 10% owned on DraftKings in his recent win, after checking in between 24-25% owned in three straight fights prior to that. That adds to his tournament appeal and he’s an interesting leverage play against the more popular Wells. The odds imply Semelsberger has a 49% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Iasmin Lucindo
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Lucindo had been scheduled to face Melissa Martinez here, but Martinez dropped out and Walker stepped in on about five weeks’ notice.
Looking to bounce back from a hardfought decision loss in her UFC debut against an incredibly tough Yazmin Jauregui, Lucindo had won her previous seven fights, with four of those ending in TKOs. Lucindo just turned 21 in January and is still incredibly young, but somehow turned pro back in 2017 when she was just 15 years old. Just prior to making her UFC debut, Lucindo dominated a Judo black on the mat in a three-round decision victory after landing a pair of TKOs in the first two rounds.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Lucindo has eight wins by KO, two submissions, and three decision victories. All three of those decision wins occurred in her last seven fights, while her last four finishes have all come by TKO. Both of her submission victories were by armbar in the first two rounds of fights in 2018 and 2019. Three of her early career wins occurred in round one, five ended in round two, and two were stopped in round three. However, three of her last five early wins didn’t make it out of the first round. The only time she’s ever been knocked out was in the first round of a 2018 match in her fifth pro fight against a dangerous striker in Gabriella Fernandes, who’s now in the UFC. She’s also been submitted twice, once in 2018 and then again in 2019. Just keep in mind, all of those early losses occurred when she was just 16-17 years old. Her only other two losses were a 2017 split decision that occurred when she was just 15 and her recent decision loss in her UFC debut. Lucindo dropped down from 125 lb to 115 lb for her UFC debut, but will be moving back up to 125 lb for this fight.
Overall, Lucindo has looked really impressive getting opponents to the mat and beating them up on the ground, although she was unable to land either of her takedown attempts in her UFC debut. She’s also a very aggressive striker with heavy hands and has no problem taking one to land one. At such a young age she has plenty of time to grow as a fighter and we should see her continue to improve between each match. After getting one of the tougher matchups you could ask for in her debut, she’ll now face an easier opponent and we expect her to be able to showcase her complete talents.
Brogan Walker
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Walker will be looking to bounce back from a R3 ground and pound TKO loss in her UFC debut, which came in The Ultimate Fighter finale against Juliana Miller. Prior to going on TUF, Walker had lost two of her previous three fights, although one of those losses came in a decision against Erin Blanchfield. Walker’s only official pro win in her last four fights (doesn’t include exhibition matches on TUF prior to the finale) came in a first round submission over Emilee King, who is now 5-7 as a pro with all seven of her losses coming by submission, and has lost three straight and four of her last five. Walker fought her first four pro fights in Guam, before joining Invicta in 2018, where she went 3-2 in her last five fights before going on TUF. Walker faced a pair of replacement fighters on TUF in Hannah Guy and Laura Gallardo, so she had one of the easiest paths to the finals you could ask for.
Now 7-3 as a pro, Walker has seen eight of her 10 pro fights go the distance (6-2), not including her two exhibition matches on TUF, which also both ended in decisions. The only early win of her career was a first round submission in her last fight before going on TUF. She had lost a pair of decisions against Erin Blanchfield and Pearl Gonzalez leading up to that, after winning a highly questionable decision over Miranda Maverick. Also keep in mind, when they fought, Maverick was only 21 years old with three pro fights to her name and was coming off an injury and year long layoff. The only early loss of Walker’s career came in a R3 TKO in her last fight.
Overall, Walker has a Muay Thai background, but is also a BJJ black belt (allegedly). She hasn’t shown us much in terms of grappling, and generally relies on striking to win fights. She’s right handed but often fights out of the southpaw stance. She’s been living in Guam for the last decade, but trains out of California where she was born, and actually just moved back to California after her last loss to get better training. She’s not very aggressive and isn’t a threat to finish anybody, which is evident by the fact that 80% of her pro fights and both of her TUF fights went the distance. Walker got taken down on all four of Miller’s attempts in their last fight, and has yet to successfully defend a takedown in the UFC. Walker got controlled the ground for nearly 10 minutes in that fight, which has been something Walker has struggled with throughout her career.
Fight Prediction:
Walker will have a 1” height and reach advantage and Z” reach advantage, while Lucindo is 13 years younger than the 34-year-old Walker.
The UFC is clearly trying to get Lucindo back on track with an easier matchup after giving her an incredibly tough opponent in her debut. Walker poses no threat either on the feet or the mat in this fight and Lucindo will be able to do whatever she wants to her. While Lucindo has the power to knock Walker out on the feet, we’re expecting her to take the fight to the mat and look for a finish there. Most of her finishes have come via ground and pound, but she will also look for submission at times. With that said, give us Lucindo by R2 TKO via ground and pound in a dominant performance.
Our favorite bet here is “Lucindo ITD” at +240.
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DFS Implications:
Lucindo wasn’t able to showcase her dangerous ground game in her recent UFC debut against a really tough opponent in Yazmin Jauregui, but did show she comes to fight and is also fully capable of taking part in a brawl on the feet. While that didn’t result in a win or a decent DFS score, she now gets a much more favorable matchup against a lower level opponent in Brogan Walker, who got taken down four times, controlled for nearly 10 minutes, and finished with ground and pound in the third round of her last fight. That’s exactly where Lucindo really excels and we expect her to find similar success getting this fight to the ground and dominating on the mat. Walker’s last opponent scored 115 DraftKings points and 111 points on FanDuel against her, which is encouraging for Lucindo’s scoring potential. Lucindo’s recent low scoring loss combined with her expensive price tag should keep her ownership lower than it otherwise would be, which also adds to her tournament appeal. We love this bounce back spot for her and expect her to make a name for herself in the division. The only two areas of concern we have are that she’s still just 21 years old and will be moving back up to her normal weight class of 125 lb after taking her debut down at 115 lb. That adds a sliver of uncertainty, but we don’t expect either to be an issue. The odds imply she has a 74% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Walker got dominated in her last fight by a very inexperienced Juliana Miller, who then looked terrible in her next match. We’re somewhat surprised the UFC even kept Walker around after that loss in The Ultimate Fighter finale, as she’s done nothing to impress and lost two of her last three fights before going on the show. She was also gifted a relatively easy path to the finals as both of her TUF wins came against late replacements after two of the original contestants dropped out due to medical and weight cutting issues. Walker is already 34 years old so she likely is what she is at this point, which isn’t very good. She got taken down on all four of Miller’s attempts in that last fight and controlled on the mat for nearly 10 minutes before getting finished with ground and pound in the third round. That’s a terrible sign for her here as she faces an opponent who excels at beating up opponents with ground and pound. The only finish Walker has ever landed came in a submission against an opponent who’s been submitted in all seven of her pro losses, so it barely even counts. Outside of landing a hail mary submission here, we don’t see any path to victory for Walker, whether or not this fight stays standing or hits the mat as we expect it will. While she projects to be low owned, we have no interest in playing Walker in any format. The odds imply Walker has a 26% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Bobby Green
21st UFC Fight (10-9-1)Looking to bounce back from a pair of KO/TKO losses, Green got finished on the mat in the first round by Islam Makhachev and then knocked out in the second round just four months ago against an always dangerous Drew Dober. Green was setting a crazy pace before he got finished, as he outlanded Dober 73-34 in significant strikes. Prior to the pair of early losses, Green had been extremely durable and hadn’t been finished since 2016 when Dustin Poirier knocked him out in the first round. Green’s last win was a February 2022 decision victory over Nasrat Haqparast, where Green landed a career best 188 significant strikes. That came just after Green knocked out a washed up Al Iaquinta in the first round, which is Green’s only finish in his last 18 fights dating back to a 2013 R1 TKO over James Krause. Leading up to the KO over Iaquinta, Green had fought to 10 straight decisions (4-5-1).
Now 29-14-1 as a pro, Green has 10 wins by KO, eight submissions, and 11 decision victories. He has four KO/TKO losses, two submission defeats, and eight decision losses. Almost all of Green’s early wins also came early in his career, and he’s largely settled into being a decision grinder.
Overall, Green is a high-volume striker (5.99 SSL/min) who likes to put on a show, but rarely ends fights early. His hands-by-his-side fighting style provides a unique look for opponents to deal with and makes it tough to see Green’s punches coming and also easier for him to defend takedowns. Green has always been one to feed off the crowd and tends to shine in the spotlight, but after fighting on three straight PPV cards in 2021 and 2022, this will be his third straight fight at the Apex in Las Vegas without any real crowd to speak of. He’s gone 0-3 in his last three fights at the Apex. With a high school wrestling background, Green is a capable grappler with a solid 72% takedown defense, but six of his last seven opponents to attempt a takedown against him landed at least one. In his last 11 fights, he’s been taken down 9 times on 334 attempts, while he’s landed 12 takedowns of his own on 24 attempts over that stretch. However, he’s failed to land a takedown on just four attempts in his last five fights and claims he has the ability to wrestle but would rather put on exciting striking battles.
Jared Gordon
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Coming off a controversial decision loss to Paddy Pimblett, Gordon has now lost two of his last three fights. Prior to the loss to Pimblett, Gordon won a decision over an aging Leonardo Santos, after getting submitted in the third round by Grant Dawson. Gordon won three straight prior to that early loss and is still 4-2 in his last six fights since getting knocked out by Charles Oliveira back in 2019. After landing a second round TKO win in his 2017 UFC debut, Gordon’s last six UFC victories have all gone the distance, while four of his five UFC losses came early, including three knockouts and one submission. His debut was against a 145 lb opponent, although Gordon weighed in at 149 lb and the fight ended up technically being a Catchweight match. Gordon has consistently struggled when he’s tried to make 145 lb, and appears to have finally stopped trying as his last few fights have all been at 155 lb. Gordon is just 4-5 at 155 lb in the UFC.
Now 19-6 as a pro, Gordon has six wins by KO, two by submission, and 11 decisions. All but one of his early wins occurred prior to joining the UFC, and he doesn’t look like much of a threat to finish fights at the UFC level. He’s been knocked out four times, but in fairness to him, it’s been over three years since anyone knocked him out. He’s also been submitted once, and has one decision loss. Gordon has competed anywhere between 145 lb and 155 lb in his career, but all of his UFC fights have taken place at either 149-150 lb Catchweight (3-0) or 155 lb (4-5).
Overall, Gordon is decently well rounded but excels with his ground and pound. He generally relies on making fights dirty and using his experience to grind out decision wins as he simply wears on his opponents. While he’s a BJJ brown belt, he only has one submission win in his last 24 fights, which was in 2016 before he joined the UFC. Gordon made the switch in teams from Roufusport to Sanford MMA in 2019 following his knockout loss to Charles Oliveira and has since gone 4-2 In his 12 UFC fights, Gordon has landed 20 takedowns on 49 attempts (40.8% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents 15 times on 39 attempts (61.5% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Green will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while Gordon is two years younger than the 36-year-old Green.
This looks like a tough matchup for Gordon to find a ton of success on the mat, as Green has a solid 72% takedown defense and generally does a good job of not getting controlled. However, Gordon has a knack for making fights ugly and coming out ahead in decisions and is impressively 11-1 in his 12 career decisions and arguably should be 12-0 with his only loss coming in his recent fight against Paddy Pimblett that the vast majority of people scored for Gordon. So while it seems like Green should have the striking advantage and is well equipped to defend Gordon’s grappling, it’s hard to argue with results. Green has had his best performances in front of large crowds and now he’ll be relegated back to the Apex, where he’s lost the last three times he’s been. However, if we ignore past results and current odds, and simply compare these two stylistically, we still favor Green to outland his way to a decision win, but there doesn’t appear to be any value in betting that.
Our favorite bet here is “Gordon DEC” at +370.
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DFS Implications:
Green has averaged 94 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins, despite seven of those going the distance. While seven of his last eight wins have come in decisions, he’s still managed to score 98 or more DraftKings points in his last four victories. Just keep in mind, his most inspired performances come in front of live crowds, whereas this fight will be back at the Apex with barely any fans. Green averages 5.99 SSL/min and has the ability to mix in takedowns sporadically when he chooses to. However, he’s failed to land any takedowns in his last five fights, and Gordon will likely be looking to slow this fight down with takedowns of his own. When you combine that with Green’s expensive price tag, it’s tougher to see him returning value without a finish and he only has one of those in his last 18 fights dating back to 2013. Working in his favor, Gordon has been finished in five of his six career losses and Green projects to be low owned, but it’s still hard to get overly excited about playing him. The odds imply he has a 69% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Gordon has averaged 106 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, despite the last six of those ending in decisions. He only failed to score 95 or more points in one of those, and has shown a really solid floor whenever he wins. Had his recent decision loss gone his way, as most people thought it should have, he would have scored 88 DraftKings points. He’s known for his ground and pound, and therefore is typically a much better play on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, as most of those strikes don’t register as significant. Just keep in mind, he’s generally struggled when facing tougher competition and his first five UFC wins came against opponents who combined to go 5-15-1 in the UFC. His only UFC win over a non-floundering opponent was a close 2021 split-decision over Joe Solecki, where Gordon only scored 74 DraftKings points. So while Gordon is fully capable of capitalizing on advantageous opportunities, he’s never won a UFC fight as more than a +110 underdog, although he was close enough to taste it in his last outing when he came in at +220. Green has decent/underrated wrestling and a solid 72% takedown defense, while being a tough guy to control. He’s also a better striker than Gordon, so this won’t be an easy matchup for Gordon to win. However, he’s 11-1 in 12 career decisions and if he finds a way to squeak another one out here, there’s a good chance he can serve as a value play at his cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 31% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Brad Tavares
22nd UFC Fight (14-7)Tavares is coming off a decision loss to Dricus Du Plessis, after winning a pair of decisions just before that. The last time one of his fights ended early was in 2019 when he got knocked out by Edmen Shahbazyan, and the last time Tavares finished anybody was in 2018 when he knocked out Krzysztof Jotko in the third round. That remains Tavares’ only early win since 2011 and 16 of his 21 UFC fights have gone the distance (12-4), with his other five UFC matches ending in knockouts (2-3). Just before his loss to Shahbazyan, Tavares was notably able to go five rounds with Adesanya, but got knocked out in 44 seconds by Robert Whittaker back in 2015. Tavares took all of 2020 off after undergoing ACL surgery, before returning to win decisions over Antonio Carlos Jr. and Omari Akhmedov, both of whom have since been cut by the UFC.
Now 19-7 as a pro, Tavares has five wins by KO, two by submission, and 12 decision victories. He’s been knocked out three times and has four decision losses. He only has one early win since 2011, which was a 2018 third round TKO against Krzysztof Jotko. His other six finishes all occurred in his first seven pro fights from 2007 to 2011. Eleven of his last 15 fights have gone the distance, but he’s been knocked out three times in the first two rounds over that stretch as well.
Overall, Tavares is a low-volume striker who has decent power and durability but rarely finishes anybody. He only averages 3.30 SSL/min and has only landed more than 84 significant strikes once in 21 UFC fights. He’s also only landed one takedowns in his last seven fights and doesn't add much in terms of offensive grappling, but does have a solid 80% takedown defense.
Bruno Silva
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Looking to bounce back from his first early loss in the UFC, Silva has now lost two straight with a decision loss to Alex Pereira, followed by a R3 submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert. Even before getting finished, Silva looked terrible in that last fight, and somehow got outlanded by Meerschaert 46-29 in significant strikes, before getting dropped in the third round just before the submission. Prior to the pair of losses, Silva had knocked out seven straight opponents dating back to a 2016 submission loss. Silva is notably the only fighter to make it to the judges against Pereira, showing off just how durable he is. Silva’s 2021 UFC debut came after a 31 month layoff. He had originally been scheduled to make his debut against Deron Winn all the way back in June 2019, but failed a drug test and was suspended for two years after testing positive for steroids.
Now 22-8 as a pro, Silva has 19 wins by KO/TKO and three decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted six times, has one decision loss, and one by DQ. Silva has impressively gone 17-3 in his last 20 fights dating back to 2012. Just three of those 20 fights went the distance, while 15 ended in KO wins, including 12 in the first round.
Overall, Silva is a one-dimensional power puncher who struggles on the mat, despite somehow being a BJJ black belt. He’s been taken down by his five UFC opponents on 8 of their 28 attempts (71.4% defense), while he’s landed 2 of his own 11 attempts (18.2% accuracy). Both of those takedowns he landed came against Alex Pereira, while seven of the takedowns he conceded were against Andrew Sanchez.
Fight Prediction:
Tavares will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 74” reach. Silva is two years younger than the 35-year-old Taveres, who joined the UFC 11 years before Silva.
This sets up as a fun striking battle between two fighters who prefer to keep fights standing. While Silva has been prone to getting submitted, he’s never been knocked out, while Tavares has three KO losses on his record, all in the first two rounds. However, Tavares looks like the more technical fighter, while Silva can get pretty wild with his striking as he’ll throw big looping haymakers. If he connects on one of those, he clearly has the power to put Tavares out, but they’re pretty easy to read and it looked like Silva gassed himself out in his last fight from all of his misses. That leaves Silva more reliant on landing a knockout, while Tavares may be able to win a technical striking battle and edge out a decision win. Both of those outcomes are possible, but we’ll say Tavares grinds out a close decision win, with a slight chance he can knock Silva out.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Tavares has failed to top 81 DraftKings points in 16 straight fights going back to 2012. He’s a low-volume striker with just two takedowns landed in his last 10 fights, and even in a 2018 third round KO, he still scored just 81 points. So overall he looks like a KO or bust play who needs a finish in the first two rounds to score well and he’s facing an opponent who’s never been knocked out. When you then add in his expensive price tag the odds of him ending up in winning tournament lineups become even smaller. The only things Tavares has going for him are his low ownership and the fact that Silva was just outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert in his last fight. However, that’s not enough to get us excited about playing Tavares here. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Silva has looked like a R1 KO or bust option so far in his four UFC fights, with DraftKings scores of 102 and 109 in a pair of first round knockout wins, but just 79 points in a third round KO victory, and only 42 points in a loss in his lone trip to the judges. Tavares has looked pretty durable for the most part, but has been knocked out three times in the past, giving Silva some hope of finding another finish here. And at his cheap price tag, Silva could theoretically serve as a value play with a late finish or in a high-volume decision win, even if he doesn't put up a huge score. Just keep in mind, Silva looked terrible in his last fight, has now dropped two in a row, and is generally very popular. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Curtis Blaydes
17th UFC Fight (12-3, NC)Blaydes’ last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it. Tom Aspinall blew out his knee 15 seconds into the first round in a complete freak injury. The only thing worth even mentioning is that Blaydes didn’t shoot for an immediate takedown. Prior to that, Blaydes landed a second round knockout against Chris Daukaus in a fight where Blaydes surprisingly never attempted a takedown. That was the first time Blaydes had failed to attempt a takedown in the UFC after landing 62 of his 115 attempts in his first 14 UFC appearances. Blaydes has now won three straight and seven of his last eight matches. His only loss over that stretch came in a violent second round knockout against Derrick Lewis in February 2021. The only other man to ever defeat Blaydes is Francis Ngannou, who did so twice, with a post R2 TKO in Blaydes’ 2016 UFC debut and a 2018 R1 TKO. Blaydes bounced back from his loss to Lewis with a decision win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Blaydes was able to take Rozenstruik down once in each of the three rounds and finished with three takedowns on six attempts. Rozenstruik notably landed a big flying knee in round two that damaged Blaydes’ right eye, but Blaydes responded by immediately taking him down. Things would have gotten very interesting with the doctor if the fight had been scheduled to go five rounds as it was essentially swollen shut by the end of round three. That’s the same eye that forced his first fight against Francis Ngannou to be stopped following the second round and appears to be an ongoing point of concern with him.
Now 17-3 as a pro, Blaydes has 12 wins by TKO and five decision victories. Nine of his last 10 KO/TKO wins occurred in rounds two and three, with the one exception being his recent R1 TKO win due to injury. Seven of his early wins ended in round two, with two finishing in round three. That doesn’t even include a 2017 R2 TKO win that was overturned when Blaydes tested positive for THC. All three of his losses have also ended in KO/TKOs, with one ending in R1 and two in R2. If we include the TKO win that was later overturned to a No Contest, amazingly 10 of Blaydes’ 21 pro fights have ended in R2 KO/TKOs (8-2).
This will be the 7th five-round fight of his career. The first came in 2018 and Blaydes got knocked out by Francis Ngannou in 45 seconds. The second was in 2020 and Blaydes landed a second round knockout of his own against Junior dos Santos. The only time Blaydes has made it to the championship round came in his third five-round fight, when he set the Heavyweight takedown record against Alexander Volkov and looked like he was ready to die of exhaustion by the end as he limped down the stretch to a decision win. He followed that up with a second round KO loss to Derrick Lewis, followed by a second round TKO win over Chris Daukaus, and then most recently landed a first round TKO to bring his five-round record to 4-2. So five of his six five-round fights have ended in knockouts in the first two rounds (3-2), with three ending in round two (2-1), and one ended in a decision victory.
Overall, Blaydes is a relentless wrestler who owns the UFC record for the most takedowns landed in a Heavyweight fight at 14. He’s gone 8-1 (plus a NC that was really a win) in UFC fights when he’s landed at least one takedown, and 4-2 when he’s failed to land any. With zero submission attempts, let alone wins, Blaydes is not a submission threat on the mat. His goal is to get opponents down and then smash them with punches and heavy elbows as he looks for ground and pound finishes. He has a solid 53.9% takedown accuracy, landing 62 of his 115 takedown attempts.
Sergei Pavlovich
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Fresh off a 54 second R1 KO win over Tai Tuivasa, following a 55 second R1 KO victory against Derrick Lewis, Pavlovich has knocked out five straight opponents in the first round after suffering a first round TKO loss of his own in his 2018 UFC debut. That loss came against Alistair Overeem, who was coming off two straight KO losses, with the most recent of those coming against Curtis Blaydes, who he actually trained with for three years at Elevation Fight Team from 2018 to 2021. Pavlovich’s last seven fights have all ended in first round knockouts going back to before he joined the UFC, and the last time he made it to round two was in 2017 in a five-round AMC title fight win. Pavlovich then defended the belt once in a R1 KO win before joining the UFC in 2018 where he proceeded to get finished with ground and pound on the mat in the first round by Overeem. Pavlovich bounced back from the loss to Overeem by knocking out a pair of low-level Heavyweights in Marcelo Golm and Maurice Greene in 2019, both of whom have since been cut by the UFC. Following the win over Greene, Pavlovich underwent knee surgery and didn’t fight in 2020 or 2021, before finally returning in 2022 to knockout a struggling 40-year-old Shamil Abdurakhimov, who was coming off back-to-back KO losses. Pavlovich then finished Derrick Lewis, who had been knocked out in two of his previous three fights, got knocked out by Pavlovich and then went on to get knocked out again in his next match. Pavlovich’s most recent opponent, Tai Tuivasa, was also coming off a KO loss
Now 17-1 as a pro, Pavlovich has 14 first round knockout wins and three decision victories. His only career loss came in his 2018 UFC debut against Alistair Overeem, who was able to take Pavlovich down and pound him out on the mat late in the first round.
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Pavlovich’s career, but his first in the UFC. His first five-round fight was in 2017 for the AMC Heavyweight belt against a smaller opponent who has gone back and forth between Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight. Pavlovich won an uneventful, low-volume striking battle. He then defended the belt in a first round knockout in his only other five-round fight against an opponent who’s gone 3-3 in his last six matches.
Overall, Pavlovich is a traditional Heavyweight boxer and his most dangerous weapon is his right hand. He did wrestle growing up and then transitioned to combat sambo, but he hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his last five fights, after going 0 for 2 in his debut. He also looked pretty helpless off his back against Overeem. Pavlovich has only faced three takedown attempts against him in the UFC, and only one in his last five fights. He was able to stuff that lone attempt from the 40-year-old Shamil Abdurakhimov, but got taken down on one of Overeem’s two attempts in his debut and was never able to return to his feet. We haven’t seen Pavlovich face any adversity since his UFC debut, as he’s been able to make short work of his last five opponents. That makes it tougher to fully evaluate his current form and the only thing that’s clear is that he has devastating power in his hands and consistently looks for first round knockouts. His last two opponents have been strikers, so he hasn’t had to worry much about getting taken down, but that all changes here.
Fight Prediction:
Blaydes will have a 1” height advantage, while Pavlovich will have a 4” reach advantage.
This is your classic striker versus wrestler matchup, but Blaydes is the more well-rounded of the two. While Pavlovich has only been taken down once in the UFC, he got finished on the mat following that takedown, and has only faced one takedown attempt since then. He looks pretty helpless off his back and that’s clearly where he’s the most vulnerable. So he couldn’t ask for a worse matchup than this as he takes on the all-time leader in Heavyweight takedowns who has nearly doubled his closest competition when it comes to total takedown landed. While it appeared that Blaydes was trying to show off his striking against Daukaus to prove he’s more than a wrestler and make a push for a title shot, look for him to get back to his wrestling here as he tries to secure that title shot. The only loss that Pavlovich has suffered in the UFC came against Alistair Overeem, who trained with Blaydes at Elevation Fight Team from 2018-2021, so their team knows how to game plan for Pavlovich. This will also be the first opponent Pavlovich has faced since 2019 who isn’t coming off a KO loss, and the UFC has really helped Pavlovich out with favorable matchups over his five-fight winning streak. While we expect Blaydes to fight smart, we also expect him to try and make a statement to eliminate any doubt that he’s next in line for the belt. So it would be surprising if he simply laid on Pavlovich for five rounds, and we like Blaydes to find a ground and pound finish in the first three rounds, most likely in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Curtis Blaydes R2 or R3 KO” at +430.
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DFS Implications:
Blaydes has averaged 111 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC wins and in fights where he’s landed at least one takedown that average has jumped to 122 points. While this will be his 7th UFC fight scheduled to go five rounds, the only time he’s seen the championship rounds was in a 2020 smothering decision win over Alexander Volkov, where Blaydes set the Heavyweight record with 14 takedowns landed and scored a face-melting 173 DraftKings points. However, since then he failed to take down three of his last four opponents, not even attempting a takedown in his last two matches. That has resulted in less impressive scores from him, although he did still score 117 DraftKings points in his last fight with the help of the Quick Win Bonus after Tom Aspinall blew out his knee in a freak injury 15 seconds into the first round. While Blaydes made a point to showcase his striking against Chris Daukaus just before that and only scored 92 DraftKings points in a second round knockout, look for Blaydes to return to his wrestling roots here against a much more dangerous striker, as Blaydes tries to secure a title shot. Pavlovich’s lone career loss came through ground and pound against Blaydes’ former teammate at Elevation Fight Team, Alistair Overeem, and the coaches there know exactly how to attack Pavlovich. Recency bias will drive Pavlovich’s ownership way beyond his implied chances of finding the early knockout he needs to win, which will in turn keep Blaydes lower owned than he would otherwise be in this great of a stylistic matchup. There’s a chance Blaydes gets immediately knocked out, leaving him with a non-existent floor, but once he can secure a takedown he’ll be in a great position to find a finish and put up a massive score, which is exactly what we’re expecting from him. The odds imply he has a 60% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Pavlovich has averaged 120 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with his scores progressively rising over the course of his UFC career (107 < 109 < 109 < 131 < 144). All 14 of his career finishes ended in first round knockouts, as did his one career loss, and he’s yet to see the second round in six UFC appearances. His devastating power and consistent finishing ability has resulted in him being very popular, as he was 35%, 39%, and 41% owned on DraftKings in his last three matches. Despite this being the toughest matchup of his career, we expect him to be even more popular in this fight at his cheap price tag as he comes off a career best scoring performance and steps into his first UFC main event. That creates a very interesting leverage opportunity by fading him, as most of the field won’t have the stomach to do so after watching his recent performances. While Pavlovich is always a threat to land an early knockout, he looked terrible off of his back the one time he’s been taken down, and was quickly finished on the mat. That makes this a nightmare matchup for Pavlovich, as Blaydes is the best wrestler in the division and will be looking to get this fight to the ground early and often. While Pavlovich has shown he doesn’t need much time to work with to land a knockout, he’ll have very limited opportunities to land a knockout blow in this fight before he finds himself on his back eating elbows. At his exorbitantly high ownership, he’s a no-brainer fade, but you’ll definitely be watching the start of the fight with bated breath and clinched cheeks for as long as it remains standing. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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