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Fighter Notes:
Ode Osbourne
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)A year removed from his January 2020 UFC debut loss to Brian Kelleher, Ode got submitted via Guillotine Choke just a couple minutes into the fight. Kelleher now has seven wins by Guillotine Choke on his record, so it’s sort of his thing. For what it’s worth, Ode looked pretty explosive in the limited action prior to getting submitted.
Prior to that loss, Ode got his shot in the UFC by landing a R1 Armbar Submission victory on DWCS back in 2019. Impressively, his last six fights have all ended in the first round, with him winning four of those. Three of those wins came by submission off his back, while one ended in a knockout. Seven of his eight career wins have come early, with three KOs and four submissions. Two of his three losses have also come early, both by submission (Guillotine & Kneebar). Eight of his 11 pro fights didn’t make it out of the first round.
It’s worth noting, apparently Ode fights at his natural weight and doesn’t cut, which generally results in guys giving up some size on the day of the event. UPDDATE: To follow up on that point, Ode weighed in at 143.5 lb for this 145 lb fight, while Rivera came in at 145 lb.
Jerome Rivera
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Rivera is making a bold move here, stepping in on short notice to fight again just 17 days after losing to Figueiredo lite. After going 0-2 in his first two UFC fights, he could be betting his future in the organization on this fight. He shouldn’t have to worry about a tough weight cut, however, as this fight will be at 145 lb after he last fought at 125 lb. Rivera has only fought at 125 lb and 135 lb in the past, so it will be interesting to see how he looks at weigh-ins up a weight class. It always seemed like he was cutting a ton of weight to get down to 125 lb.
Ode was actually Rivera’s original opponent for the January 20th card, before Ode withdrew and Figueiredo stepped in. So despite the fact that this is a short notice fight, these two have already prepared for each other.
Rivera ended up losing a decision to Figueiredo, sending his UFC record to 0-2 after he got knocked out in his debut by Tyson Nam in another short notice fight. One reason for optimism on RIvera is that his performance in the third round against Figueiredo actually looked like his best round so far in the UFC. His striking game looked improved from the Nam fight and he looked far more composed.
Seven of Rivera’s 10 pro wins have come early, all by submission. Three of his four career losses have also come early, with two KOs and one submission. It’s worth noting that one of those KOs came when he dislocated his elbow in what appeared to be a freak accident against the cage. His other KO came in his short notice UFC debut against Tyson Nam. His one submission loss came in R3 of a 2017 LFA fight. His first decision loss came in his most recent fight.
Fight Prediction:
Rivera will have a 3” height advantage, but Ode will actually have a 1” reach advantage.
This sets up as a good fight between two guys both trying to notch their first UFC win. One of them hasn’t fought in 383 days and the other has had a brisk 17 day layoff. Both fighters have shown the ability to finish fights with submissions, but Ode has also shown he can get it done on the feet. We think he’ll have the advantage standing up, and it’s anyone’s guess how things play out on the mat. Ode looks like the more explosive fighter and we think there’s a good chance he finishes Rivera early, but Rivera certainly has a shot in this one.
Considering that 19 of their combined 25 fights have ended early (76%), betting the ITD line at -135 (57%) seems like a solid play.
DFS Implications:
An explosive striker with dangerous submission skills and an extremely offensive guard, Ode looks like a solid fighter to target in DFS regardless of price. That’s where things get interesting though. Ode was originally scheduled to fight Denys Bondar in this matchup as a +150 underdog. Naturally, Ode was added to the DraftKings slate, but not FanDuel at the beginning of the week and priced accordingly as an underdog. Bondar then withdrew from the fight and Rivera stepped in on very short notice and just 17 days after his last fight. With the new matchup, Ode opened as a -225 favorite over Rivera, but the $7,800 DraftKings price tag is already locked in.
If you don’t know the drill, let’s look back at some past examples:
Kevin Holland was 77% owned on DraftKings as a -725 favorite, priced at just $8,200, against late addition Charlie Ontiveros.
Jamall Emmers was 66% owned as a -546 favorite, priced at just $7,800, against late replacement Vince Cachero.
Even struggling Frank Camacho was 66% owned, priced at $8,000, as a -340 favorite over last minute replacement Justin Jaynes.
There are a few notable differences between this spot and those that we just mentioned. First, Ode is not as big a favorite as any of those fighters. Second, Rivera is not making his UFC debut. And third, Ode has fought just one UFC fight himself, where he scored just six points and was submitted in the first round. However, anytime you get a high-upside favorite priced as a dog, you can expect him to be extremely popular.
If you’re curious how those other three spots worked out, we’ll tell you. Kevin Holland submitted Ontiveros in the first round, scored 108.5 DraftKings points, and ended up in the optimal lineup. Jamall Emmers destroyed VInce Cachero over the course of three rounds, scored 121.5 DraftKings points, and ended up in the optimal lineup despite the fight ending in a decision. Frank Camcho, however, actually got knocked out 41 seconds into the first round by Justin Jaynes (11% owned), and Jaynes ended up in the optimal lineup.
On the same August 1st card as the Emmers mispricing, we also had Johnny Munoz and Nate Maness both priced at $7,200 when Ray Borg dropped out. Both of these guys were making their UFC debuts AND the oddsmakers had set the line as a coin flip, AND there was already the massive value play in Emmers on the slate, but interestingly the field opted to go 31% Munoz and 37% Maness without a clear favorite to choose.
Based on Rivera’s price and the way DraftKings handles pricing, we know that if the slate was released with the current matchup, Ode would have been priced at $8,700 on DraftKings. One last thing to point out, Ode opened as a +150 dog against Bondar, but had been bet down to +140 before Bondar withdrew.
There’s little to gain in tournaments from rostering a 65%-75% owned fighter who goes off, but betting against them provides an insane amount of leverage. Based on the odds and circumstances, we don’t expect Ode to be quite as highly owned as those other fighters, but we still have him projected as the highest owned fighter on the slate. Keep in mind, he’s been submitted in the first round in two of his last six fights and is coming off a year long layoff after getting submitted in the first round of his UFC debut. We still think there’s a good chance he wins this fight early and ends up in optimal lineups, but it makes sense to be under the field on Ode and over the field on Rivera in tournaments. You can balance the amount of leverage and risk you take on based on how far under the field on Ode you go. In low-risk go ahead and lock Ode in.
Rivera has yet to even sniff anything resembling a decent DFS score in his two UFC fights, but based on the fact that 70% of his wins have come by submission, you would have to think he’s bound to find a nut eventually if you give him enough cracks at it. We don’t think Rivera winning this fight is the most likely outcome, but if he does win, there’s a good chance it would come via submission (i.e. solid DFS score) and provide a massive amount of leverage on the field. There’s not much more you could ask for in a high-risk tournament play. Win or lose, being over the field on Rivera is the right tournament play on DraftKings.
Timur Valiev
2nd UFC Fight (0-0, NC)After starting his pro career 16-2 and never being finished, Valiev made his UFC debut this past August and came out guns blazing. In seven minutes of action, Valiev landed 66 significant strikes (9.45 SS/min). He crumpled Jones to the ground in the first round with a kick to the body and looked to be on the verge of ending things right there. With a little help from the ref, Jones was able to hang on to see a second round. Valiev came out a little less explosive in the second, but still seemed to be controlling the fight—at least until Jones caught him with a clean right hook to the chin and jumped on top to finish him. That was the first time Valiev had ever been finished early and he looked confused as he attempted to drunkenly fight his way through the stoppage.
The UFC cruelly stripped Jones of the victory after he tested positive for THC following the fight. Remember, he took this fight on three days notice. So living up to his nickname, “Lucky” Valiev gets a fresh start on his UFC record.
Valiev had originally been scheduled to make his UFC back on August 1st against Jamall Emmers, but was forced to withdraw. Then he was set to face Mark Striegl on August 22nd, but Striegl withdrew the week of the fight and Trevin Jones stepped in on just three days notice. Given the short notice, the fight was moved from 135 lb to 140 lb catchweight. Jones was visibly the bigger fighter, which appeared to translate to knockout power.
For this fight, Valiev had been scheduled to fight Julio Arce, but Arce withdrew and Day stepped in on short notice. Once again Valiev will have little time to game plan for his opponent.
Valiev has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb earlier in his career, but the majority of his fights have been at 135 lb, including his last two fights prior to joining the UFC. This fight is at 145 lb, so it will be interesting to see how he looks up a weight class.
Nine of Valiev’s 16 pro wins have come by decision, including three of his last four. However, he was on pace to land 142 significant strikes in his last fight—had the fight gone the full 15 minutes. While Trevin Jones was coming off back to back submission wins before facing Valiev, Martin Day skids in on a three fight losing streak.
Martin Day
4th UFC Fight (0-3)After losing a 2017 decision on DWCS, Day was relegated back to the regional scene. However, after bouncing back with three straight wins, including a R1 Guillotine Choke and a R2 KO, the UFC decided to give him a shot.
He lost his 2018 debut in a split decision against Pingyuan Liu—who went on to lose his next two fights—but Day notably landed 100 significant strikes in the fight to go along with one takedown, while defending all four of his opponents’ attempts. However, following the November 2018 loss in his debut, Day suffered back to back torn MCLs and we didn’t see him again in the Octagon until July 2020 when he faced Davey Grant and got knocked out in the third round.
Following the loss to Davey, Day went up against a grappler in Anderson dos Santos, who submitted Day late in the first round with a Guillotine Choke.
Now winless in three UFC fights, three of Day’s last four fights ended early, and he’s been finished in his last two. He was also knocked out back in R1 of a 2017 match prior to joining the UFC. His other two losses both came by decision. Five of his eight pro wins have come early, with three KOs and two submissions.
He seems to be more comfortable fighting at a distance where he can throw kicks while more easily avoiding his opponent’s strikes. He’ll have a sizable 6” reach advantage, which could help him to fight from distance in this one.
Day will be moving up to 145 lb for the first time after fighting all of his previous UFC fights at 135 lb. Some of his pre UFC fights were even down at 125 lb. UPDATE: Day was extremely slow to weigh in, which is often not a good sign.
Fight Prediction:
Day will have a 4” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
Day has really struggled on the UFC stage with losses in all three of his UFC matches, not counting the loss on DWCS. This seems like one last ditch effort to finally get a win before being cast off, but it looks like a terrible spot for him. Valiev apepars to be a far superior striker and as long as he can successfully close the distance, we like him to win this fight comfortably. Valiev notably opened as the second biggest favorite on the slate at -410 (76%). His R1 win line is set at +250, implying he has roughly a 21% chance to get it done, which is the third highest on the slate.
DFS Implications:
Valiev’s FanDuel pricing was released at the beginning of the week when he was still scheduled to fight Arce with much closer odds. Therefore we now get a massive favorite at just $16. Similar to the Ode Osbourne situation, we expect Valiev to be the highest owned fighter on the FanDuel slate, as he should be. You can’t ignore the value here, and fading Valiev would be a mistake. Lock him into your cash lineups and the majority of your high-risk lineups as well. You may need to get a little more creative than normal in big GPPs to assure a unique lineup. One thing to consider is that while being the most popular fighter on the slate, he could still go under owned at MVP— based on his price and the way people’s brains work. Valiev is appropriately priced on DraftKings as the second most expensive fighter on the slate. We think he’s a decent play over there, and has a chance to put up a big score if he can get a finish. The oddsmakers have set his chances of ending it early at +110, implying roughly a 41% chance.
As a +310 underdog, Day is the ultimate (i.e. super gross) high-risk tournament leverage play on FanDuel where everyone and their mom will be playing Valiev. The only problem is that Day will most likely lose this fight. However, if he can somehow pull off the upset, you’ll stand to benefit exponentially by playing him. We think he’ll be far less owned than his actual chances of winning (24%) according to the oddsmakers.
Youssef Zalal
5th UFC Fight (3-1)This matchup was originally scheduled last October, but Choi was forced to withdraw due to an injury and Zalal ended up fighting up-and-coming stud Ilia Topuria instead. Choi then had two different opponents withdraw from this February 6th card, before Zalal stepped in on short notice on January 27th.
After winning his first three UFC fights, Zalal went up against a buzz saw in his last match. Zalal was simply outmatched by Topuria in every phase of the game, and just surviving to see a decision demonstrated just how tough he is. Topuria finished all nine of his other pro opponents in the first 8 minutes of action, and eight of those finishes came in four minutes or less. We’re not big on giving participation awards, but Zalal’s survival ability in that fight was damn impressive.
Prior to the loss, Zalal was on a four fight winning streak. After starting his career off with six straight early finishes, six of his last seven fights have ended in decisions. The one exception was a R1 Flying Knee KO in his last LFA fight before joining the UFC. Zalal has acknowledged that his flying knee is his best weapon for trying to knock opponents out, as he really doesn’t have a ton of power in his hands. He does have one other KO on his record, but it came in his second pro fight against a 1-1 nobody. His other five early finishes all came by submission, but those were all early in his career and he really doesn’t seem like that much of a submission threat.
His elusive fighting style allows him to evade opponents at will, which has made it tough for the opposition to land many strikes on him. It often feels like Zalal is having too much fun to actually want to finish a fight early. He literally looks like a kid on a moonbounce for the first time as he laughs it up inside the Octagon. Maybe after suffering his first UFC loss that will change.
Seung Woo Choi
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Now 14 months removed since he last fought, Choi is coming off his first win in three attempts in the UFC, after joining the organization in 2019 with a 7-1 pro record. Choi made his UFC debut against the still undefeated Movsar Evloev, and suffered his first career decision loss against the tough Russian. Evloev took Choi down five times on 16 attempts and accrued nearly 12 minutes of control time. He also landed 121 strikes, but only 50 went down as significant. Choi was 0 for 2 on takedowns himself and landed 94 strikes of his own, but only 26 significant.
Choi had another tough matchup in Gavin Tucker in his second UFC fight. Similar to Evloev, Tucker took Choi down five times on 13 attempts and finished with just over six minutes of control time. Tucker landed just 49 total strikes (37 significant). Choi landed two takedowns on two attempts and connected on only 42 total strikes, just 23 of which were counted as significant. Tucker was able to submit Choi with a Rear-Naked Choke with under two minutes to go in the third round.
Interestingly, in Choi’s first two UFC fights both Evloev and Tucker were deducted a point for throwing an illegal knee to Choi’s head while he was down. You have to wonder what was going through his head after taking the a pair of illegal blows in as many fights. [What is this bullshit? I guess this is just how things are in the UFC...] Apparently, the example being set rubbed off on him, as he was docked a point for repeatedly grabbing the fence in the first round of his third fight. And continuing the trend, the fighter to lose a point still won the fight.
In that third UFC fight, Choi got the monkey off his back with a decision win over Suman Mokhtarian, who came into the fight with an 8-1 record but 0-1 in the UFC after losing his debut to a violent Sodiq Yusuff. After Choi got taken down five times in each of his first two UFC fights, he successfully defended the only attempt in his third fight. Choi didn’t attempt any takedowns of his own, but still managed to get nearly seven minutes of control time. He won the lopsided striking battle 158-67 in total strikes and 95-33 in significant. Even in a decision, Choi was able to score 103 DraftKings points and 92 points on FanDuel.
Choi is a solid striker, but doesn’t offer much in the grappling department. His striking looked better than ever in his last fight, as he dominated the submission specialist Mokhtarian. Prior to joining the UFC, five of Choi’s seven pro wins were by KO, including three in the first round. His only pre-UFC loss came from a R1 KO.
Fight Prediction:
Choi will have a 2” height and reach advantage in this fight.
Choi will have the advantage in striking, while Zalal is the superior grappler. This is far from an easy matchup for Zalal, and the outcome will likely depend on his ability to get the fight to the ground. However, Zalal’s a tough guy to hit on the feet, so it’s unlikely Choi puts on a striking clinic here. We think Zalal most likely wins another low volume decision here, while mixing in a decent amount of grappling. But he’ll need to be careful against Choi, who’s a far better striker than Zalal.
Our most confident bet here is that this fight goes the distance, which we’ve seen as good as -118 or as high as -165.
DFS Implications:
Choi continues to draw the short end of the stick so far in terms of UFC matchups. He’s a pure striker who continues to get paired up with grapplers. With the right matchup. we think we could see a striking explosion out of him. Unfortunately this is definitely not that spot. Zalal’s as slippery as an ice cube in an oil spill, and is always a tough guy to score well against. None of his previous four UFC opponents landed more than 28 significant strikes on him, and all four of his fights ended in decisions. He’s never been finished early in 13 pro fights, and all three of his pro losses were by decision. Choi does seem to have the power to theoretically finish Zalal if he landed enough clean shots, but the odds of it actually happening seem low. Choi appears to be a slightly better play on FanDuel, where he’s relatively cheaper and we expect he scores some points on takedowns defended. The fact that he scored 103 DraftKings points but just 92 FanDuel points in his last match seems flukey, as he managed to put up nearly seven minutes of control time without landing a single takedown and only defended one. Zalal averages 3.1 missed takedowns per 15 minutes.
Zalal has fared better against strikers than grapplers so far in the UFC, as he put up DraftKings scores of 88 and 95 against the strikers Lingo and Barrett, but just 69 and 32 points against the grapplers Griffin and Topuria. Until we see a legitimate DFS ceiling out of Zalal or his price drops, it will continue to be risky to play him. He will really need to dominate this fight on the ground from start to finish to score well on DraftKings and would likely need an early finish to put up a usable FanDuel score. It won’t be surprising to see him score 85-95 points in a decision win if he can command the fight on the ground, but it seems unlikely he puts up a really big score here, which is what his price would require.
Molly McCann
6th UFC Fight (3-2)McCann is coming off a tough loss to Taila Santos, who was able to take McCann down five times on seven attempts and control her on the ground for nearly eight minutes of the fight. Santos’ powerful grappling effectively neutralized McCann’s high-volume boxing fighting style. McCann landed just 48 significant strikes, after totalling over 100 in each of her previous three fights.
McCann notably has averaged three takedowns landed in her three UFC wins, but hasn’t landed a takedown in either of her two losses. She’s clearly much more comfortable fighting strikers than grapplers. Her 33% takedown defense represents a major vulnerability, and she’s pretty much helpless off her back. Her only early loss came in her 2018 UFC debut against crafty grappler Gillian Robertson, who submitted McCann in the second round with a Rear-Naked Choke.
Following the loss, McCann got a matchup more her style in Priscila Cachoeira, or “Zombie Girl” as she’s nicknamed for her unphased brawling fighting style. Going against an opponent who had no desire to take the fight to the ground, McCann was able to win a striking battle (107-75 in SS) while tacking on two takedowns of her own as she won a unanimous decision.
In her next fight, McCann went up against Ariane Lipski, who has only landed one takedown in her five UFC fights. McCann outlanded Lipski 108-68 in significant strikes and once again landed two takedowns. McCann convincingly won another unanimous decision and her confidence appeared to be on the rise.
McCann’s third UFC win came in another decision, this time against UFC newcomer Diana Belbita. Going against yet another striker, McCann didn’t have to worry much about defending takedowns. She did get taken down on Belbita’s only attempt, but landed five takedowns of her own in a third straight impressive 15 minute battle.
After winning three straight, McCann then ran into someone who she couldn’t bully around in Santos, and her ground game was once again exposed. This time, she did survive to go to her fourth straight decision, but it wasn’t close.
We’ve seen very binary matchup based results from McCann so far in the UFC. When she goes against strikers, she wins. When she goes against grapplers, she loses.
The real question here, is what do we expect to see out of Procopio?
Lara Procopio
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off a six-month suspension for violating the anti-doping policy and an extended layoff following her UFC debut, the BJJ black belt lost a striking battle to Karol Rosa while failing to land any of her five takedown attempts. The two fighters both landed an insane number of significant strikes, with Rosa leading the way 171-165 over three rounds. We didn’t get to see any of Procopio’s ground game in the fight, as Rosa forced Procopio into a striking battle. It seems less likely that McCann will be able to completely neutralize Procopio’s grappling the way Rosa did.
Notably two of Procopio’s three career early wins were by R1 Armbar submissions. One of those, however, came in her first pro fight against a fighter making her only ever pro appearance.
Procopio had been scheduled to fight Cortney Casey last May, but the event was cancelled due to COVID, so it’s now been a year and a half since she lost her debut to Karol Rosa in August 2019. The loss to Rosa ruined Procopio’s previous perfect 6-0 pre-UFC record. Her last three fights all ended in decisions, after three of her first four pro fights ended in the first round (2 Armbars & 1 KO).
Fight Prediction:
Both ladies are 5’4” but Procopio will have a noticeable 5” reach advantage.
This fight comes down to whether or not Procopio can get McCann down to the ground. McCann’s 33% takedown defense would make you think there’s a good chance she can’t stay upright for the full 15 minutes, but Procopio failed to land any of her five takedown attempts in her debut. So it appears we have a very stoppable force going against an easily movable object. However, after Procopio’s terrible takedown accuracy and McCann’s terrible takedown defense were both exposed in their prior fights, you would like to think that they’ve both been focusing on those areas of weakness. If this fight stays on the feet, we see McCann winning a high-volume brawling decision. However, if the fight goes to the ground, we think Procopio will have a major advantage and could even end things early. It’s worth pointing out that Procopio stand up game appears to be better than McCann’s ground game.
The two lines we’re considering are McCann wins by decision at +110 and Procopio wins by submission at +950, but there are better options elsewhere on this card.
DFS Implications:
If it were entirely up to McCann, she would only match up with strikers and never go against another grappler. Unfortunately for her, that’s not the way the UFC works. In her three UFC wins, McCann has scored 91, 85, and 109 points on DraftKings and 106, 97, and 123 points on FanDuel. All of those wins came against strikers who posed no substantial grappling threat to McCann. Without having to worry about defending takedowns, McCann was able to not only land over 100 significant strikes in each of those fights, but also average three takedowns of her own. It seems far less likely that McCann will be inclined to take Procopio down, since she knows that’s where Procopio wants the fight to be. If you take away McCann’s takedowns, it really limits what’s been a fairly impressive upside in decisions. It’s possible that she can make up for that with additional striking, but it’s one more hurdle she’ll need to overcome. McCann will need this fight to play out similarly to how Procopio’s fight against Rosa went to be useful in DFS. Also worth noting, McCann did not benefit from the new DraftKings rules as 91% of her career strikes have gone down as significant and her control time average is just 9%. If McCann does win, it likely means she successfully defended multiple takedowns and landed a good amount of significant striking volume. That likely makes her a slightly better play on FanDuel than DraftKings.
Despite Procopio putting up a huge striking total in her UFC debut, the BJJ black belt would have to be insane to not try and get McCann to the mat. Procopio clearly wanted to take Rosa to the ground, but Rosa’s perfect takedown defense held up. She gets a much juicier matchup here, going against McCann’s terrible 33% takedown defense. As long as the fight is standing up, we expect it to be a high-volume brawl, but if/when Procopio gets it to the ground, look for her to take control. Keep in mind, we don’t have a ton of tape to go off of with Procopio, as this is just her second UFC fight and there is limited footage available of her previous fights. Because of that Procopio is a high variance tournament play, who is more of a bet against McCann’s nonexistent ground game.
Karol Rosa
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming in on a four fight winning streak, Rosa had originally been scheduled to take on Nicco Montaño in this match, but Montaño pulled out on January 26th and Joselyne Edwards stepped in on short notice. Rosa has really struggled with canceled fights over the past couple years. Even before joining the UFC she had two fights scheduled and canceled in 2019. Then following her UFC debut, Rosa was scheduled four different times to take on Julia Avila, but withdrew from two of those and the other two events were canceled due to COVID. Following her second UFC fight, she was scheduled to take on Sijara Eubanks back in September 2020, but Rosa withdrew and was "hospitalized for a botched weight cut."
Making her UFC debut in August of 2019, Rosa defeated Lara Procopio in a split decision, but it seemed clear Rosa had done enough to win. In a high-volume shootout, Rosa outlanded Procopio 171-165 in significant strikes and 177-169 in total strikes, while successfully defending all five of Procopio’s takedown attempts. Rosa did a great job of mixing leg kicks into striking combos, which really helped her rack up the massive striking total. She landed 108 significant strikes to the head, 11 to the body and 52 to the legs. It felt like she finished nearly every punching combo with a leg kick.
After dealing with the aforementioned cancelations against Avila over the next 10 months, Rosa was finally able to get back in the Octagon this past July against Vanessa Melo. Interestingly, Rosa landed the exact same total number of strikes in her second UFC fight as she did in her first (177), however this time only 120 registered as significant—likely due to the fact that a number of them were ground strikes. While she landed less significant strikes in that fight, she was able to land two takedowns and almost six minutes of control time. Melo looked outmatched, landing just 45 significant strikes of her own, but fought hard to take the fight to a decision. Melo notably missed weight badly for that fight, coming in 5 lb over the limit.
Prior to her two recent decisions in the UFC, Rosa had seven straight fights end early, which she won five of. Both of her losses over that period game by submission—a 2018 R1 Kimura and a 2018 R2 Guillotine Choke. Her only other career loss was a 2017 decision and she has never been knocked out. Six of her 13 pro wins have ended early—four by KO and two by submission. However, only two of her 16 pro fights have ended in the first round, with her only R1 win coming all the way back in 2013 in her third pro fight via R1 KO. Her last four fights and five of her last six have made it to the third round. Often talked about on the broadcast, Rosa is Jessica Andrade’s primary sparring partner
Rosa is an ultra high-volume striker who relies more on wearing down her opponents then, then overwhelming them with power. Her last three early finishes all came in the third round, and the one prior to that was a corner stoppage following the second round. She also had a R2 armbar victory just before that. So don’t expect her to finish this one in the first round.
Joselyne Edwards
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Fighting for the second time in three weeks, Edwards took her January 16th UFC debut on short notice, just nine days before the event. So relatively speaking, stepping in on 11 days notice for this one is more than enough time to prepare.
Edwards looked good in her debut, and nearly submitted Wu Yanan in the first round with a neverending armbar attempt that could have spanned a commercial break. Yanan was able to narrowly survive the submission attempt, but never really looked like the veteran in the match, and went on to lose a decision. Edwards looked better both on her feet and on the ground, and appeared to be the stronger fighter.
Now 10-2 as a pro, eight of Edwards’ wins have come early—five by KO and three by submission. With an aggressive guard, she likes to go for Armbar submissions off her back, which she’s finished two opponents with. She’s only been finished once herself, which was also by Armbar, in the second round of her second pro fight back in 2015.
After her first six pro fights all ended early, three of her most recent six have ended in decisions. The other three were a 2018 R1 KO win, a 2018 R2 Submission win and a 2020 R1 KO.
Edwards has mostly fought on the Central American regional scene, but did have one fight in the LFA in 2018, where she lost a five round split decision to wrestler Sarah Alpar—who you may remember got murdered in her September UFC debut against a formerly unimpressive Jessica-Rose Clark. Most of Edwards’ pre-UFC wins were against far less experienced opponents, but she showed in her debut that she belongs in the UFC. She’s a powerful striker who also looks to be dangerous off her back. While she attempted three takedowns in her debut, she failed to land any.
Fight Prediction:
Edwards will have a 3” height and reach advantage.
This sets up as one of the highest paced skirmishes on the slate, with both ladies more than happy to let their hands fly. We think Rosa is the more technical striker, but give the edge to Edwards in terms of power. Edwards could look to take the fight to the ground at some point, but so far Rosa has successfully defended all seven takedown attempts thrown her way in the UFC. Rosa showed in her first two fights that she knows when she does and doesn’t want to engage on the ground and we think she’ll want to keep this one standing up after watching Edwards’ debut. We think Rosa will outland Edwards over the course of three rounds, which will likely leave Edwards with the task of closing the show early if she wants to come out victorious. The oddsmakers have set Edwards’ ITD line at +490, implying she has roughly a 14% chance of getting it done. We think Rosa wins this one by decision.
There is one line that stands out to us as being too wide however. Rosa’s R3 KO line is set at +3500. Her last three early finishes have all come in the third round, two of them by KO. If Rosa were to get a finish, we think it’s far more likely to come late than early, so it’s worth taking a stab at those odds.
DFS Implications:
Despite both of her UFC fights ending in decisions, Rosa has been rock solid in DFS through sheer striking volume. She landed 171 significant strikes in her 2019 debut and followed it up with 120 in her next match. That led the way for scores of 112 and 110 respectively on DraftKings and 150 and 110 on FanDuel. Rosa was 28% owned on DraftKings for her last fight (13 fight slate), when she was a -275 favorite over Vanessa Melo and priced at $9,200. Now cheaper and more proven, look for that number to go up some. Rosa offers one of the highest floor/ceiling combinations on the slate, making her one of our favorite plays on both sites—for both low and high-risk contests.
If Edwards wins this fight it likely means she either finished Rosa, completely controlled her on the ground or landed a ridiculous amount of volume to get the nod in a striking battle. All three of those outcomes tend to score well, so it’s hard to see Edwards scoring poorly in a victory. With that said, we don’t think she wins and neither do the oddsmakers or the betting public. Edwards’ line opened at +165 and was bet up to +215 by Friday. However, it’s still a near certainty that she’ll go lower owned than her actual chances of winning, so there is certainly leverage to be had in playing her.
Devonte Smith
4th UFC Fight (2-1)After 18 months away from the Octagon following his first UFC loss, Smith had been scheduled to fight grappler Alex da Silva, before da SIlva withdrew and Jaynes stepped in on short notice.
Smith secured his spot in the UFC with a R1 KO victory on DWCS back in 2018. Coming into the organization with an 8-1 record, and having never been to a decision, Smith exploded onto the scene with back to back first round knockouts, including a 46 second finish in his debut.
At 2-0 in the UFC in 2019, and on six fight winning streak, with five of those ending in the first round, Smith had been scheduled to fight John Makdessi. However, Makdessi was forced to withdraw, so Collard stepped in briefly. Then Collard was forced to withdraw due to health issues and Smith’s training partner and good friend Kamara Worthy stepped in on short notice. Sort of a weird situation to be in for a young fighter.
Despite being a -1000 favorite, Smith got knocked out by the debuting Worthy late in the first round. Following the loss, Smith unfortunately tore his Achilles during training. After a grueling recovery process, Smith now says he’s finally back to 100% and ready to go.
Of note, this fight is set to take place at 160 lb catchweight. Smith has previously always fought at 155 lb.
Justin Jaynes
4th UFC Fight (1-2)After cannonballing into the UFC with a 41 second R1 KO on extremely short notice against Frank Camacho back in his June UFC debut, Jaynes came back down to earth with back to back early losses. His one-dimensional power-punching fighting style was exposed in his fight against Gavin Tucker, who submitted Jaynes in the third round via Rear-Naked Choke. Janyes seemed like he might pull off another upset early on, both dropping Tucker in the first and nearly landing a Guillotine Submission, but Tucker survived and took command of the fight from the second round on.
Then, Jaynes most recently went up against Gabriel Benitez, who crumpled Jaynes with a violent knee to the body late in the first round and finished him with a flurry of punches on the ground. Benitez landed several heavy leg kicks that looked to compromise Jaynes prior to the finish.
Before the recent pair of losses, Jaynes had won five straight fights in the first round and had never been finished early. Only two of his 16 career wins have been by decision, while eight have come by KO and five by submission (and one by DQ).
After fighting his UFC debut at 155 lb, Jaynes dropped down to 145 lb for his second fight. However, after the failed experiment at 145 lb, he moved back up to 155 lb for his most recent match. He’s fought anywhere from 155-170 lb in the past, but the majority of his fights have been at 155 lb so that appears to be where he’s most comfortable. This fight is set to take place at 160 lb catchweight.
Fight Prediction:
Smith will have a 2” height advantage and massive 8” reach advantage.
Jaynes looked undersized in his last match against Gabriel Benitez, who’s an inch shorter than Smith and also has a 5” shorter reach, so it will be interesting to see how he looks compared to Smith. Both of these fighters are coming off R1 KO losses, but Jaynes has fought three times since Smith last stepped inside the Octagon. Both fighters are knockout artists, so this may just come down to who lands a clean shot first. We give the size and speed advantage to Smith, but coming off a serious injury and an extended layoff is definitely cause for concern. Jaynes will be looking to prove that he wasn’t a flash in the pan, while Smith will need to show that he’s still got it after it’s been two years since his last win. We definitely give the edge to Smith, but it’s always possible Jaynes lands something clean, and Smith’s chin is pretty dubious. Either way, this fight seems unlikely to make it beyond the first round.
The oddsmakers don’t see it being that close, installing Smith as a -285 (71%) favorite with a slate-leading +135 (31%) R1 Win line. Jaynes opened as a +225 (29%) underdog with just a +700 (9%) R1 line.
With six of each of these fighters’ last seven fights (86%) ending in the first round, the under 1.5 rounds line at -160 (60%) seems like a smart play here.
DFS Implications:
So far in his UFC career, every fight Smith has been part of has resulted in a R1 finish for someone. He comes in with a slate-leading +135 (31%) R1 win line, and gets an opponent coming off a R1 KO loss who’s been finished in his last two fights. The concern with Smith is that he’s coming off a R1 KO loss of his own, as well as an 18 month layoff after tearing his Achilles. Still just 27 years old, it’s been two years since his last victory. You can’t ignore his upside, but there are also several red flags. There’s a very good chance the winner of this fight ends up in optimal lineups on both DFS sites, so you’ll want to have a decent amount of exposure.
Jaynes comes in with a puncher’s chance and a cheap price tag, which generally makes for a decent DFS tournament play. After being just 11% owned in his short notice UFC debut where he landed a R1 KO, he jumped all the way up to 36% owned as a slight underdog in his second UFC fight. Despite losing in the third round, he remained a popular play at 37% owned in his third UFC fight. It’s important to note that his third fight came on a COVID plagued slate that ended up with just 8 fights on the card, but for context, he was the most popular three round underdog on the slate. After burning the field twice, we think his ownership will likely be cut in half, and he’ll go back to being a low-owned tournament leverage play. There’s a very good chance he quickly gets his clock cleaned here, but if he does pull off the upset, it’s a great leverage opportunity in tournaments.
Mike Rodriguez
7th UFC Fight (2-3, NC)Rodriguez is coming off a questionable loss where he clearly landed a knee to the body of Ed Herman in the second round that crumpled Herman to the mat. As Rodriguez went in to finish him on the ground, the ref stopped the action and called time to Rodriguez’s bewilderment. Despite the knee landing clearly to the chest of Herman, the ref deemed it a low blow and allowed Herman multiple minutes to recover. So in reality, that should have been a R2 KO win for Rodriguez. Herman looked dangerously close to being finished at two other points following that, but was able to survive and land a hail mary Kimura on Rodriguez in the third round. It also looked like Herman hooked his toes in the cage to help him set up the submission, so really just an all around shady performance from the old grifter.
Just three weeks prior to that loss, Rodriguez landed a R1 KO on a highly suspect Marcin Prachnio. Rodriguez’s only two UFC wins notably came against terrible opponents in Prachnio (1-3 in the UFC with three R1 losses) and Adam Milstead (went 1-3 in the UFC before being released, but one loss was overturned to a NC because his opponent tested positive for THC). Both of those opponents have notably not landed a takedown in their combined eight UFC fights. Milstead didn’t even attempt one, while Prachnio’s only two attempts came in his last fight.
The last time Rodriguez faced a pure grappler was when he went up against Devin Clark in his 2018 UFC debut. Clark landed 7 of 11 takedown attempts and outlanded Rodriguez 50-40 in significant strikes, while amassing 11 and a half minutes of control time en route to winning a decision. Clark scored 129 points on DraftKings, based on the new scoring system, as he landed 137 strikes (just 50 significant) and a ton of control time. Just to be clear, Clark is a much better fighter/grappler than Marques.
Rodriguez is now officially 2-3 in the UFC, but he’s actually lost four of his six UFC fights. However, his 2019 decision loss to John Allan was overturned when Allan failed a drug test.
Of Rodriguez's 16 official pro fights, 14 have ended early, with 11 ending in R1 (9-2 in those 11). He throws heavy knees and elbows out of the clinch, which should be helpful against an opponent in Marques who will constantly be looking to grapple. The real test for Rodriguez will be whether or not his 40% takedown defense can hold up against Marques’ nonstop takedown attempts.
Danilo Marques
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)After not fighting for two and a half years, the now 35-year-old Marques made his UFC debut last September against winless Khadis Ibragimov. The slow paced snoozer saw just 35 combined significant strikes landed between the two fighters over 15 minutes of “action”. Marques relentlessly pursued takedowns, but was only able to finish 4 of 16 attempts. He did finish the fight with over seven minutes of control time.
Marques is a one-dimensional fighter with no real striking skills to speak of. Prior to joining the UFC, he did win his previous two fights, but he had exclusively fought questionable competition. Here are the records of his opponents in his last four wins before joining the UFC, beginning with the most recent: 5-4-1, 0-16, 5-9, 0-3.
While his last two wins both ended in decisions, eight of his 10 career victories have come early, including four by submission. He also has four KO wins, but all four of those came in his first six fights against highly suspect opponents with records of 0-1, 0-2, 2-4, and 0-8. Only one of those opponents ever even fought again and that was the 0-8 punching bag who’s been knocked out in R1 seven times in eight fights.
In his second most recent loss, Marques showed a glass chin, getting KO’d in R1 by 7-7 Marcio Telles who had lost 3 of his previous four fights.
Fight Prediction:
Marques will have a 2” height advantage, but Rodriguez will have a 5” reach advantage.
This is another one of those fights where the outcome entirely hinges on whether it stays on the feet or goes to the ground. If Rodriguez’s poor 40% takedown defense can survive Marques’ awful 25% takedown accuracy, then he will win this fight. However, if Marques can consistently get the fight to the ground then he should have the advantage and could pull off the upset, either with a submission or in another decision. We think Rodriguez comes in with a chip on his shoulder after getting shafted in his last bout, and likely finishes Marques with knees or elbows as Marques looks to shoot in for a takedown.
DFS Implications:
Rodriguez looks like a R1 KO or bust DFS play. The oddsmakers have set his R1 Win Line at +165, implying he has roughly a 27% chance of getting it done. Rodriguez doesn’t have a win in his last 11 fights that made it out of the first round, so if he can’t finish things in the first five minutes, he could be in trouble. Contributing to his DFS ceiling, Rodriguez has impressively landed two knockdowns in a single fight, not once but twice in his last five matches. Rodriguez isn’t a super comfortable play, and we get a little bit of a Rountree vibe here, but he’s generally done a good job of capitalizing on inferior opponents, and has landed first round knockouts in his last three wins. While he’s relatively cheaper on DraftKings, Rodriguez offers the potential to score from takedowns defended on FanDuel, which makes him a little more interesting over there.
Marques will be entirely reliant on his grappling game to score well in DFS. If he struggles to get Rodriguez to the ground, then he has no chance to win this fight or score well in DFS. However, if he’s able to capitalize on Rodriguez’s below average 40% takedown defense, then he has the potential to win this fight and score decently in DFS. He’ll likely need a finish to put up a big score on FanDuel, but if he can dominate control time then he could potentially score semi-decently for his price in a decision on DraftKings. He would still likely need a finish to put up a big score however, as he doesn’t throw many strikes. Also keep in mind, he’s legit bad at fighting.
Diego Ferreira
11th UFC Fight (8-2)This will be a rematch of the 2014 fight that Dariush easily won in a unanimous 30-27 decision. In that fight, the BJJ black belt Dariush did a good job of controlling Ferreira on the ground, while knowing when to back up and reset to avoid the dangerously offensive guard of Ferreira—who’s a 3rd degree BJJ black belt himself. Dariush compiled nearly eight minutes of control time and went 3 for 6 on takedowns, while outlanding Ferreira 54-24 on significant strikes. In fairness to Ferreira, he did take that fight on short notice.
Ferreira's only other career loss came in 2015 to Dustin Poirier directly after the loss to Dariush. Poirier knocked out Ferreira in the first round, which remains the only time Ferreira has ever been finished.
Since the pair of losses, Ferreira has won six straight. Three of those wins came by decision, but he also mixed in a pair of KOs in the first two rounds in 2018, and a 2020 R2 Rear-Naked Choke submission win over Anthony Pettis. Five of his total eight UFC wins have come early (R1 & R2 Rear-Naked Chokes, R1 KO & two R2 KOs).
Ferreira does have three knockouts in the UFC, but he’s really more of a submission threat than a power puncher. Dariush has only been submitted once in his career (by Michael Chiesa), but has been caught a few times with violent strikes to shut off his lights.
Beneil Dariush
19th UFC Fight (13-4-1)Dariush comes in red hot on a five fight winning streak, with his last four wins all coming in the first two rounds. In his last fight, he knocked out Scott Holtzman in the first round. Holtzman had previously never been finished by anybody in 17 pro fights. Prior to finishing Holtzman, Dariush knocked out Drakkar Klose in the second round. Klose had also never been finished early in his 12 pro fights. Dariush also knocked out Camacho in R1 of their 2019 match and impressively finished Drew Dober with a R2 Armbar in 2019.
A BJJ and Muay Thai black belt, Dariush is a well rounded fighter who can dominate fights both standing up and on the mat. He seems supremely confident in his abilities, which has led to finishes in 13 of his 19 pro wins. However, his aggressive fighting style has also gotten him into trouble at times, as all four of his losses have come early.
After starting his pro career off 7-0, he got knocked out by Ramsey Nijem in R1 of his second UFC fight. Then after bouncing back with five straight wins, he was submitted by Michael Chiesa in R2 of their 2016 match. He rebounded with a pair of wins, before getting knocked out in 2017 by Edson Barboza in the second round with a violent knee. He then fought Evan Dunham to a draw before getting knocked out again in 2018 by Alexander Hernandez in just 42 seconds. Dariush has won his last five since that 2018 loss.
Dariush notably missed weight in his last fight, coming in at 158 lb. It clearly didn’t hurt his performance, but it’s something to at least monitor. We’re not concerned about it though.
Fight Prediction:
Dariush will have a 1” height advantage, but Ferreira will have a 2” reach advantage. Dariush is five years younger than the 36-year-old Ferreira.
Dariush seems like Ferreira’s Kryptonite. He’s a better striker on the feet and can match him in the grappling game. Just like Dariush, Ferreira has been on an impressive run, but we think Dariush is the superior fighter. With that said, Ferreira is a tough guy to finish. Dariush is capable of putting anyone to sleep in a variety of ways, but it wouldn’t be that surprising to see Ferreira hold on again for another decision. Either way, we like Dariush to pull the upset here. UPDATE: After opening the week as a +105 dog, Dariush has flipped to a slight -110 favorite. We like Dariush’s moneyline at +105 (now -110) and his decision line at +350.
DFS Implications:
Twelve of Dariush’s 18 UFC fights have ended in the first two rounds, including eight of his 13 wins and all four of his losses. He’s only been to one decision in his last six fights, which came in a grappling match against Thiago Moises, where Dariush controlled Moises for almost the entire fight. The control time allowed Dariush to still put up a solid 106 points on DraftKings but scored just 86 points on FanDuel. Dariush has been a DFS beast with five straight Draftkings scores of 99 points or more. He’s a complete fighter who can finish opponents with striking and submissions. Priced at just $8,000 on DraftKings and $15 on FanDuel, we expect him to be very popular, and for good reason.
Interestingly, Dariush and Ferreira are both $15 on FanDuel, despite Ferreira being the favorite. Unless the line flips (UPDATE: It flipped, Now Ferreira looks like a low owned leverage play on FanDuel), that should pull some ownership off of Dariush as some of the field will opt to play the “value” favorite at the same price. The oddsmakers have set Dariush’s ITD line at +250, giving him roughly a 24% chance to win this one early. He’ll be owned well above that, so a strong argument can be made to play him in cash, but go under the field in tournaments. While he did score well on DraftKings in his last decision win, you can’t rely on him accruing over 13 minutes of control time again. When these two fought previously back in 2014, Dariush won a decision and stacked up nearly eight minutes of control time, but he still scored just 76 points on DraftKings and 60 points on FanDuel. This spot feels somewhat similar to Albazi last week.
Ferreira has scored well when he’s landed an early finish, which he’s done in three of his last five fights, but has never scored well in decisions. Also priced very reasonably at $8,200/$15, if Ferreira can finish Dariush early he’ll almost certainly end up in optimal lineups. With a +270 ITD line, the oddsmakers are giving Ferreira roughly a 23% chance to finish things early. At lower ownership than Dariush, Ferreira makes for an interesting tournament leverage play. The other option for tournaments is to hope this fight ends in a lower scoring decision and fade it altogether. Choosing correctly here will almost certainly be a key component to hitting the optimal on Saturday, but it’s a tricky one to nail down.
Cody Stamann
9th UFC Fight (5-2-1)Coming off a decision loss to Jimmie Rivera, Stamann will get an easier matchup here in UFC newcomer Askar Askar, who’s filling in on short notice after Ewell dropped out. Stamann was originally scheduled to fight Merab Dvalishvili, who withdrew in mid January and then Andre Ewell stepped in. Then Ewell was forced to withdraw just five days before the fight and Askar stepped in. So his opponents have been getting progressively easier with each change. If Askar drops out they may pair him up with Jon Anik.
This will be Stamann’s third straight fight at 145 lb, after fighting his previous five at 135 lb. He’s talked about how tough the weight cut down to 135 lb is, so he seems to prefer to fight at 145 lb. He also fought his dominating UFC debut at 145 lb.
His last four, and 7 of his 8 UFC fights have ended in decisions. The only exception was a R2 Kneebar submission loss against Aljamain Sterling in 2018.
Stamann seems ready to step his game up here after losing a fight to Rivera in his last outing. Here’s a piece of his media day interview:
“I gotta kill him, I gotta absolutely kill him...I could walk out there, shoot one time, shoot a double leg, get on top of him and I could just do that the entire time and just grind him out, make it nasty, and make it ugly and nobody would want to watch it and everybody would just be like well who’s fighting next? I know I can do that, that’s not a question. But I think when you get an opportunity like this you need to capitalize on it, you need to be spectacular. And that’s exactly what I plan to be, you know what I mean? I've got things that I do well that I’ve never even shown in the Octagon. I don’t just plan on beating Askar Askar, I plan on dismantling him. I don’t think this guy is ever gonna want to fight in the UFC again after Saturday night.”
Whether that’s actually a prediction of what’s to come, hyperbole, or bulletin board material for his opponent remains to be seen, but Stamann at least appears to be motivated to put on a more exciting performance.
UPDATE: Stamann looked shredded at weigh-ins while Askar just looked kind of meh.
Askar Askar
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut, Askar is coming off an October decision win in the LFA. He never really looked that dangerous in the fight—neither on the ground or standing up. In his fight prior to that he was knocked out in the first round last February. That KO is his only career loss to date.
Askar comes in with an impressive 11-1 record as a pro. Six of 10 wins have come early, five by KO and one by submission. Four of his knockout wins came when he was fighting under the”Hoosier Fight Club” banner. Both if his LFA fights ended in decisions. Three of his last four wins came by decision.
Fight Prediction:
Askar will have a 1” height advantage and 5.5” reach advantage.
Look for Stamann to completely control Askar with his wrestling. We like Stamann to win a decisive decision here and think the difference between Stamann’s moneyline at -485 and his “Wins by Decision” line at -140 is head scratching. All five of Stamann’s UFC wins have come by decision and he’s rarely a threat to finish opponents.
DFS Implications:
Stamann has failed to score above 84 DraftKings points in his last four wins, and his only exceptional DFS performance came in a decision win in his 2017 UFC debut against Terrion Ware—who’s lost six straight fights, beginning with the loss to Stamann, and is no longer in the UFC. Stamann landed eight takedowns and nearly seven minutes of control time to go with 124 total strikes and 94 significant and put up 126 DraftKings points and 127 points on FanDuel. It’s that type of complete domination that we would need to see out of Stamann for him to be useful in DFS at his price, which is entirely possible against a UFC newcomer who’s taking the fight on short notice. Based on his wrestling style, Stamann generally makes for a better play on DraftKings, where he can score from control time and ground strikes, than on FanDuel. Based on his recent performances, he should be a rare low-owned massive favorite on both sites. We think he has a solid floor for low-risk lineups, and has the potential for a ceiling performance that would make him a great tournament play.
In full disclosure, we know less about Askar than any of the other fighters on this slate, but we think he couldn’t have asked for a much tougher matchup from a DFS perspective. Stamann has only been finished once in 23 pro fights, which came in a 2018 R2 Kneebar against Aljamain Sterling. We’re looking for Stamann to control this fight on the ground and test Askar’s cardio after taking this flight on short notice. We don’t have much interest in playing Askar in DFS, and the only argument we can see is that he’ll be a low owned contrarian tournament play. Good luck if you play him.
Alexandre Pantoja
10th UFC Fight (6-3)This fight had been scheduled for December 19th, but Pantoja was forced to withdraw due to COVID. According to him he had a fairly rough case that put him out of commission for a week or two. It will be interesting to see if that has any lingering effects on his cardio if this fight makes it into the later rounds.
After suffering a decision loss to undefeated Askar Askarov, Pantoja has now lost two of his last three fights. However, his other loss came against the champ in Deiveson Figueiredo, so it’s hard to hold that against him too much. He was impressively able to take Figueiredo to a decision, and Pantoja has never been finished in 27 pro fights with all five of his losses coming by decision.
Of his 22 career wins, 16 have come early with eight KOs and eight submissions. His last three wins have all come in the first round, with a pair of knockouts in 2019 and a Rear-Naked Choke Submission in 2018. Six of his eight submission wins were by Rear-Naked Choke.
Manel Kape
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a 13 month layoff, Kape is coming off three straight second round knockout wins in Rizin, where he won the Rizin Bantamweight Belt in his last match. His last nine fights have all been in Rizin and he’s gone 4-3 in his last seven. His last three wins came against Seiichiro Ito, who’s lost his last three fights, former UFC fighter Takeya Mizugaki, who’s lost five of his last seven, and Kai Asakura, who’s lost two of his last four.
Impressively, 14 of his 15 career wins have come early, with nine KOs and five submissions. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted in two of his four pro losses—a 2014 R3 Rear-Naked Choke and a 2017 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke. Kape is a quick striker who can throw flurries of punches, but his ground game looks highly suspect. Not short of confidence he would often put his hands behind his back in RIzin, trying to taunt his opponents. He looks hittable enough with his hands in front of him, so here’s to hoping he tries that shit against Pantoja on Saturday.
Kape notably weighed in as a backup for the December 12th UFC 256 main event (Figueiredo vs. Moreno) so he’s already been through the process of making weight in the UFC, and he came in at 124.5 lb on that occasion. He’s fought anywhere between 125 lb and 135 lb in the past, but more so at 135 lb. His last two fights were both at 134.5 lb (61 kg).
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5” but Kape will have a 1” reach advantage.
We think Pantoja is way too talented to lose 3 out of 4 fights, and this is where he gets things back on track. Pantoja has never been finished early, and while Kape has decent striking on the feet, we think he will get exposed on the ground. We like Pantoja to finish this one with a submission, likely early in the fight.
We love the Pantoja moneyline at -105, and think his submission line +300, R1 win line at +400 and R1 submission line at +700 are all firmly in play.
DFS Implications:
Pantoja has scored 121, 110, 98, 67 and 118 DraftKings points in his last five wins. The 67 point performance came in a decision against Brandon Moreno, who no one scores well against. We’re hoping/expecting that since Pantoja has lost two of his last three fights, the field will be a little lower on him than they would be otherwise. Pantoja hasn’t shown he can score well in decisions, but most of his wins don’t come by decision. We think he makes for the perfect DFS tournament play, as he offers elite upside in the majority of his victories, but has lost enough recently to scare off the meek. Pantoja is also stupid cheap on both DFS sites and gets an opponent making his UFC debut off an extended layoff. We think this sets up for an explosion spot with an early submission win squarely in play. The oddsmakers have set Pantoja’s ITD line at +165, which implies about a 32% chance he finishes Kape. We’ll take the over.
If Kape can pull off the upset here, he also has a chance to score well. It would likely need to come from an early finish though, unless this turns into an absolute brawl. Keep in mind, Kape is only slightly cheaper than Pantoja on both sites, so if he wins a decision here, it still likely wouldn’t be enough for him to be useful in DFS. We think he needs an early finish, and Pantoja has never been finished. The oddsmakers have set Kape’s ITD line at +200, giving him roughly a 28% chance to be the first fighter to ever finish Pantoja early. That strikes us as being way too high. After starting the week as a +115 underdog, the line has moved 20 cents in Kape’s favor. This should drive up his DFS ownership, while lowering Pantoja’s. If you asked us, this is a fraudulent line move.
Michael Johnson
24th UFC Fight (11-12)Coming in sideways for the home stretch of his career, Johnson has dropped three straight, as well as losing six of his last eight and eight of his last 11 fights. Despite all the losses, somehow three of his four wins since 2014 have come against Edson Barboza, Dustin Poirier, and Andre Fili. His only early finish since 2013, was a R1 KO of Dustin Poirier. Seven of his 11 UFC wins have ended in decisions. His four UFC finishes were a 2011 R1 KO, a 2012 R2 KO, a 2013 R2 KO and a 2016 R1 KO. His two pro submission wins came very early in his career, back in 2008 and 2009. However, looking on the other side of things, nine of his 16 career losses have come by submission, while he’s only been knocked out twice.
Of his 12 UFC losses, five have come in decisions, two by KO and five by submission. Notably, only one of those seven early losses came in the first round, which was a 2011 Heel Hook Submission against Submission specialist Paul Sass (13 of 14 pro wins by submission).
Looking at his most recent six losses, five have come early (2 KOs & 3 Submission). That began with Khabib finishing him in their 2016 match with a R3 Kimura. Then in his next fight, Johnson got knocked out by Justin Gaethje in the second round. After losing to Gaethje in 2017, Johnson tried moving down to 145 lb for his next four fights, where he ended up going 2-2. He was introduced to the 145 lb division by Darren Elkins in 2018, who submitted Johnson in the second round with a Rear-Naked Choke. Johnson did bounce back with a pair of decision wins over Andre Fili and Artem Lobov, but then got knocked out in the third round by Josh Emmett in an ultra low-volume boobird bananza. Following that loss, Johnson moved back up to 155 lb in 2019.
In his first fight back at 155 lb, he lost a decision to Steven Ray, before most recently getting submitted in the second round by Thiago Moises. Johnson actually looked pretty good in the first round against Moises, outlanding the grappler 27-1 in significant strikes and successfully defending all three of his takedown attempts. However, as soon as the second round started Moises shot for a takedown and ended up pulling guard and grabbing an ankle to submit Johnson.
While the first three submission losses of Johnson’s career all ended with him getting choked out, five of his last six tapouts have resulted from opponents attacking his rangey limbs. He’s been finished with two Kimuras, two Heel Hooks and an Achilles Lock. The only time he’s been choked out since 2009 was a 2018 Rear-Naked Choke loss to Darren Elkins.
Clay Guida
30th UFC Fight (15-14)The reason we looked deeper into the submission techniques that Johnson is most vulnerable to, is that Guida’s last eight submission wins all came by some form of choke. He did land a pair of ankle locks, but they came all the way back in 2004 and 2005. All 11 of his other submission wins since then have come by attacking his opponents’ necks. And even more notable, Guida’s last submission victory came a decade ago in January 2011. Six of Guida’s seven wins since then were by decision, with the one exception being a 2017 R1 KO over a washed up Joe Lauzon.
Guida is coming off two straight losses and has now lost three of his last four. Six of his last seven losses have come early, while six of his last 7 wins have been by decision. Three of Guida’s last four early losses were by R1 Guillotine Choke Submission, which is not a technique Johnson has ever used to finish a fight as a pro.
Guida has averaged 3.4 takedowns landed per 15 minutes on 8.9 attempts, which is the second highest on the slate for both numbers. So he averages 5.5 failed takedowns per 15 minutes. In his last fight, Guida went 3 for 12 on takedowns against Bobby Green. Guida is not one to get involved in striking battles and has only landed above 49 significant strikes twice (62 & 80 SS) in 29 UFC fights. He’s also only absorbed above 68 significant strikes once, which notably did come in his last match when Green landed 85.
Fight Prediction:
Johnson will have both a 3” height and reach advantage. He’s also 5 years younger than the 39-year-old Guida.
Guida has only been knocked out twice in 55 pro fights, but has been submitted 10 times. Johnson has just two submission wins in 35 pro fights and they came in 2008 and 2009. You might look at their records—Guida 13 wins by submission and Johnson 9 losses by submission–and think Guida has a good chance to submit Johnson, however Guida hasn’t submitted anybody since 2011 and was always better at choking people out than attacking limbs (Johnson’s biggest vulnerability). It seems like this fight sets up for Johnson to win a decision by winning the striking battle and defending takedowns. We like the Johnson decision line at +145.
DFS Implications:
Johnson has a better chance to score well on FanDuel than on DraftKings. In his last six fights, he’s only averaged 3% control time and 87% of his strikes have gone down as significant. So the new DraftKings scoring system has actually hurt his scores. While his FanDuel scores in his last two wins haven’t been good (85 & 65), he did drop 138 FanDuel points (109 on DK) against Joe Lauzon back in a 2013 decision win and scored 25 FanDuel points in the first round of his last fight (27 SSL and 3 TDs defended). Based on his relatively low striking volume and the fact that he’s only landed one takedown in his last six fights, we still don’t think he’s a great play. However, at least on FanDuel, he has a little more scoring upside based on takedowns defended, and makes for a low owned contrarian tournament play.
Outside of his one early win in the last decade, Guida has generally struggled to put up big scores, but he has benefited from the new DraftKings scoring system. At times, he’s been able to rack up control time and insignificant strikes, which have allowed him to score 92 DraftKings points in a decision win against Koch in 2017, which was only good for 55 points on FanDuel. He also scored 94 DraftKings points in a decision win against Peralta in 2015, which was only good for 77 points on FanDuel. So clearly he’s a better play onDraftKings, but we still don’t like this spot for him. Johnson has a solid 79% takedown defense, and if Guida can’t get this fight to the ground we expect him to lose a low volume decision.
Cory Sandhagen
8th UFC Fight (6-1)Three months removed from an emphatic R2 KO win over Marlon Moraes, Sandhagen moved up from #4 to the #2 contender in the Bantamweight division following the win. Coincidentally, Edgar now occupies the #4 spot in the rankings.
Sandhagen has now won seven of his last eight fights, with his only UFC loss coming in a 2020 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission against Aljamain Sterling. He joined the UFC in 2018, fresh off consecutive R1 KO wins in the LFA, and kept his finishing streak going with back to back R2 KO wins in his first two UFC fights, followed by a R1 Armbar Submission win in his third UFC fight. He then won a pair of decisions before his loss last June to Sterling, who was able to immediately take Sandagen’s back and choke him out.
The loss to Sterling remains the only time Sandhagen has been finished early in his 15 pro fights. His only other career loss was a 2017 decision loss to Jamall Emmers in the LFA.
Sandhagen came into the UFC at 145 lb, but moved down to 135 lb following his UFC debut. Nine of his 15 career fights have ended early with five KO wins, three submission victories, and the one submission loss. Only two of his seven UFC fights have made it to the judges.
Frankie Edgar
28th UFC Fight (18-8-1)Now entering his 28th UFC fight and 15th year in the organization, Edgar owns the record for the most amount of time spent inside the UFC Octagon (just another way of saying he’s old). He’s coming off his first career fight down at 135 lb, in a controversial split decision win over Pedro Munhoz. Edgar started his MMA career off in 2005 at 155 lb, where he stayed until 2013 when dropped down to 145 lb following back to back decision losses to Benson Henderson. Edgar was 6-0 prior to joining the UFC and then went 9-3-1 to start his UFC career at 155 lb. He went 8-5 at 145 lb, before making the drop down to 135 lb following another pair of losses in 2019.
In his last fight, Edgar spent essentially the entire 25 minutes circling away from Munhoz, carefully choosing his spots to throw three punch combos. He did officially land two takedowns, but didn’t do anything with them. Despite being outlanded 166-135 in significant strikes and spending the entire fight retreating, the judges awarded Edgar the split decision victory, allowing him to avoid dropping three straight fights and four of his last five.
Edgar’s eight UFC losses have come against some tough competition in The Korean Zombie, Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (Twice), Benson Henderson (Twice) and Gray Maynard. In his last eight fights, he’s gone 4-4 and has only won two of his last five—both by decision. His only early win since 2015 came in a 2017 R2 TKO by doctor stoppage against Yair Rodriguez. On the other side of things, two of his last three losses were by R1 KO at the hands of The Korean Zombie and Brian Ortega, which are the only two times Edgar has been finished in his career.
Fight Prediction:
Sandhagen will have a 5” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also 11 years younger than the 39-year-old Edgar.
Look for Sandhagen to utilize his long leg reach advantage to throw kicks at Edgar from distance. It would make sense for Edgar to try and get this fight to the ground at some point, as we’ve seen Sandhagen struggle to defend takedowns with just a 30% takedown defense. Winning this fight on the ground or stealing another decision are likely the only ways Edgar can win. We like Sandhagen to win a decision here, but it’s possible he finishes Edgar early.
DFS Implications:
We’ll start by saying that it’s going to be tough for either fighter to score well in this spot, and both are likely to be overowned in DFS.
Sandhagen lands an impressive average of 6.88 significant strikes per minute, but this fight sets up for a pace down matchup in what feels like a let down spot. One reason for a silver of optimism is that while Edgar has only absorbed an average of 2.7 significant strikes per minute over his UFC career, that number goes up to 5.67 in his last five fights. So there is some reason to think that Sandhagen could land more strikes than one might think just by looking at Edgar’s career numbers. Another area of concern for his DFS scoring, Sandhagen hasn’t landed a takedown in his last three fights and Edgar amazingly has not been taken down a single time in his last 15 fights. So it seems unlikely that Sandhagen will add much to his DFS score in the grappling department. With those factors considered, it appears you’ll need an early finish for Sandhagen to score well. His R1 win line is set at +425 (14%) and his R2 line is +600 (10%). His R2 KO in his last fight scored just 95 DraftKings points, which as the highest priced fighter on a slate likely wouldn’t be enough to crack the optimal. If you estimate that roughly half the time a R2 win would be enough for him to score well, then it seems fair to say he has about a 19% chance to end up in optimal lineups. We expect his ownership to be above that.
Edgars’s last three fights have all been five round main events, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts his strategy and pace for a shorter three round fight. Historically, he has never been a very high-volume striker, and prior to his last match, where he landed 135 significant strikes over 25 minutes (5.4 SS Landed/Min), he had never landed above 96 significant strikes in his previous 26 UFC fights. His takedown numbers look decent on first glance, but he’s only landed three in his last five matches—and three of those were five round fights. In his 13 fights at 155 lb to start his UFC career, he landed 42 takedowns. However, in his 13 fights at 145 lb he has only landed 26. He landed two takedowns over five rounds in his last fight, which is his only match to date at 135 lb. Edgar was 38% owned on DraftKings in his last match, despite being a +250 underdog in the main event. As a cheap fan favorite, with several inflated five round scores going into a three round match, we think Edgar will likely go overowned on both DFS sites. With only one early win in the last five years, his lone path to victory is likely a low scoring decision, so he seems like a guy you want to fade.
Alexander Volkov
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Coming off his first UFC fight to end before the third round, Volkov finished Walt Harris early in the second with a kick up the middle to Harris’ mid section. After starting his UFC career with four straight victories, Volkov has alternated wins and losses over his last four fights.
He came into the UFC in 2016 with a well established 32-6 pro record, after originally going pro back in 2009. In his first two UFC fights, he notched a pair of decision wins, which was enough to earn him a 2017 five round main event spot against Stefan Struve. Volkov knocked Struve out in the third round and was rewarded with another main event spot against Fabricio Werdum. Again, Volkov knocked Werdum out, this time in the fourth round.
The string of wins landed him a spot on the October 2018 Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor PPV card, in a three round fight against Derrick Lewis. Volkov controlled the entire fight, outlanding Lewis 121-39 in significant strikes, but with 11 seconds left Lewis flipped the script with a last second KO. That remains the only time Volkov has ever been finished early in the UFC and is also only his second career KO loss in 40 pro fights. He has been submitted twice as well.
Volkov bounced back from the demoralizing loss to Lewis with a decision win over Greg Hardy, who was filling in on short notice after Junior dos Santos withdrew. Following the win over Hardy, Volkov suffered a smothering five round decision loss at the hands of Curtis Blaydes. Volkov had no answer for Blaydes’ wrestling heavy approach, but was nevertheless the visibility fresher fighter by the fifth round and looked to have a glimmer of hope towards the end—at least until Blaydes took him down one last time.
While two of Volkov’s last three fights have ended in decisions, 28 of his 40 pro fights didn’t make it to the judges. Living up to his “Drago” nickname, he has 21 career wins by KO—although only three of those have come in the UFC. Prior to his recent R2 KO win, all seven of his UFC fights had made it to the third round. Two of his three five round fights in the UFC made it to the championship rounds, and one went the full 25 minutes.
This will be Volkov’s eighth five round fight of his career—he’s had three in the UFC (2020 Decision Loss vs. Blaydes, 2018 R4 KO Win vs. Werdum, and 2017 R3 KO Win vs. Struve) and four prior to joining the organization (2016 R1 KO Win, 2016 R3 KO Win, 2013 R1 KO Loss, and 2012 Decision Win). So in his pro career, he’s been to the fourth round three times and been to two five round decisions (1-1). With many Heavyweights, you would worry about their cardio later in fights and into the championship rounds, but that seems to be less of a concern with Volkov.
Alistair Overeem
20th UFC Fight (12-7)This will be Overeem’s fifth straight five round main event, and the last four all ended with knockouts—which he won three of. He appeared to come into his last fight with the plan to wear Augusto Sakai out early (or let him wear himself out) and then get more aggressive in the later rounds. That made sense, as Sakai is a Heavyweight who had previously never seen the 4th round. Once it got later into the fight, Overeem’s goal was to get Sakai to the ground and smash his face through the mat with elbows. The plan worked and Herb Dean stopped the fight early in the 5th round.
This will actually be his eighth five round fight in the UFC. In fact, he made his 2011 UFC debut in a five round match against Brock Lesnar. Overeem knocked Lesnar out in the first round, but then went on to get knocked out himself in three of his next four fights. After starting out 2-3 in the UFC, he won six of his next seven fights, with four wins by KO. The one loss over those seven matches came in a 2016 R1 KO at the hands of Stipe Miocic.
His momentum hit a snag in 2017 when he got knocked out in the first round by Francis Ngannou and followed it up with a R3 KO loss to Curtis Blaydes in his next fight. Since the pair of losses, Overeem has won four of his last five fights, with the only loss coming in a 2019 R5 KO against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. In a close match against Rozenstruik, Overrem got his face mangled with four seconds remaining in the fight. With a violent right hand, Rozenstruik split Overeem’s upper lip in two, leaving Overeem looking like an extra in a zombie movie.
Following the loss, Overeem was dangerously close to getting finished by Walt Harris early in the first round of his next fight. However, he was able to hang on with a little help from the ref for not stopping it. Harris looked like he punched himself out trying to finish Overeem, who was then able to turn the tables on Harris and get him to the ground. Harris had no answer for Overeem’s violent ground and pound, and the fight got stopped in the second round with Harris face down getting punched in the head.
Overeem’s last seven and 12 of his last 14 fights have ended in KOs. He’s gone 10-4 in those last 14, with all of his losses coming against top tier competition in Rozenstruik, Blaydes, Ngannou and Miocic. Looking at his entire UFC career, all seven of his losses have come by KO—four in R1, two in R3 and one in R5. Nine of his 12 UFC wins have come early, also all by KO, including four in R1, three in R2, one in R3 and one in R5.
Overeem’s last four victories have all notably resulted from heavy ground and pound, where referees were forced to stop the fights. On the defensive side of things, he has looked a little too content with getting hit at times, where he shells up and relies on his high guard to protect himself. It’s not a good visual and has gotten him into trouble at times.
Fight Prediction:
Volkov will have a 3” height advantage but both fighters share an 80” reach. Now 40 years old, Overeem is notably 8 years older than Volkov.
With over 100 combined fights of pro experience (not a typo), we expect both of these two veterans to be well prepared for what awaits them inside the Octagon. Overeem will likely try and get this fight to the mat at some point, where he will look to inflict serious damage with heavy ground and pound. Blaydes was notably able to dominate Volkov on the ground for five rounds. Volkov generally does a good job from the bottom using his long legs to help control his opponents, but struggled mightily to get back to his feet against Blaydes, who amassed almost 20 minutes of control time in their fight. We don’t expect Overeem to immediately shoot for takedowns the way Blaydes did, but once he sets them up with some early striking, we expect him to look to take it to the ground by the third round if it gets there. If Overeem is successful at getting Volkov to the ground, we think he has a solid shot at winning this fight, if not, we like Volkov to win it on the feet.
While it’s tough to say who wins this one with much confidence, we really like the Over 1.5 Rounds line at -192.
DFS Implications:
Amazingly, Overeem has been fighting professionally since 1999, and has an absurd 65 pro fights under his belt (47-18). His first two pro losses both came by decision—one in the previous century—but since then, 15 of his 16 losses have come early (14 by KO & 1 by Submission). With his last seven and 11 of his last 12 fights ending early, there’s a good chance someone gets a finish here. He does have 17 submission wins to go with his 25 knockouts, but his last submission victory was all the way back in 2009, prior to joining the UFC. While he’s coming off a UFC career high in significant strikes landed (92), you generally can’t rely on Overeem’s striking volume alone to score well. He has, however, landed at least one takedown in four of his last five fights, and two or more takedowns in two of his last three matches. He’s also begun to accumulate more control time recently, along with landing more ground and pound. So the new DraftKings rules seem to benefit him more than your typical Heavyweight. After putting up big DFS scores in his last four wins, and winning both of his 2020 fights by KO, we think Overeem will be one of the most popular underdogs on this slate. Priced at just $7,600 on DraftKings, but $18 on Fanduel, he’s clearly a better value on DraftKings. And because of the pricing and the scoring system, he has more paths to making the optimal lineup on DraftKings. With that said, if he gets a finish in the first two rounds or fills up the scoresheet over five rounds, look for him to likely make the optimal on both sites regardless. Just keep in mind, it’s been a while since we’ve seen his DFS floor in a win and variance is a hell of a drug.
Volkov has had three high-volume striking output performances in his eight UFC fights. In his second UFC fight he landed 122 significant strikes on Roy Nelson in a three round decision (8.13 SS Landed/Min). In his next fight, he landed 135 significant strikes on Stefan Struve over 13 and a half minutes of action (10 SS Landed/Min), before eventually knocking out Struve in the third round. Then in his fifth UFC fight, he landed 121 significant strikes on Derrick Lewis (8.17 SS Landed/Min) before Lewis landed a hail mary KO to win the fight late in the third. Since the loss to Lewis, Volkov has landed significant strike totals of 86 (5.73 SS Landed/Min) in a three round decision win over Hardy, 31 (1.24 SS Landed/Min) in the five round decision to Blaydes and 45 (7.2 SS Landed/Min) in the second round KO win over Harris in his last fight. If we look at his last three fights while excluding the Blaydes fight where he spent 20 minutes on his back, Volkov has landed an impressive average of 6.99 SS/Min. That gives us some reason to think that he has the potential to land a solid number of strikes in this fight. Working against him is the fact that Overeem absorbs an average of just 2.33 SS Landed/Min and no one has ever landed more than 99 significant strikes on him in a fight—which coincidentally happened in his last match.
Another reason to think that Volkov has a chance to put up a high striking total is that two of Overeem’s last three fights have made it to the fifth round. Since joining the UFC, Overeem’s average fight time is just 7 minutes and 19 seconds, but in his last three fights it jumps all the way up to 17 minutes and 47 seconds. He’s now 40 years old and it’s fair to wonder if his ability to finish fights quickly is beginning to wane.
Volkov has only topped 92 DraftKings points once in his eight UFC fights, which came in a 123 point performance against Stefan Struve where Volkov landed 135 significant strikes in 13 and half minutes before knocking Struve out in the third round. He only has two takedowns in his last four fights and hasn’t landed a knockdown in any of those four. He also doesn’t add any appreciable amount of control time, so he’s entirely reliant on striking volume and finishes to score well in DFS. Even in his recent R2 win over Harris, he scored just 88 DraftKings points. With the KO coming early in the second round, it was unfortunate timing from a DFS perspective, as had it come at the end of the first or later in the second it would have scored much better. He also wasn’t credited with a knockdown as Harris sort of slumped to the ground on his own after absorbing the kick to the body.
The new DraftKings scoring system hasn’t done Volkov any favors, as significant strikes are pretty much his only method of scoring. On FanDuel, he at least has the potential to score from takedowns defended, but he’s also relatively more expensive. We think Volkov will end up going lower owned than your typical main event favorite and could end up with very similar ownership as Overeem. We think this makes him an interesting play with potentially sneaky, albeit unreliable upside.
There’s also the potential that this main event ends up with neither fighter scoring especially well. Volkov has failed to put up a usable DFS score in five of his six wins, and Overeem’s lack of volume keeps his floor a little lower than your average main event fighter. Based on Overeem’s recent DFS success and affordable price tag, along with Volkov’s overall DFS struggles, we think the field will be bullish on Overeem, despite him being the underdog. So for tournaments, this means that you’ll have the most to gain from a leverage standpoint by being under the field on Overeem and over the field on Volkov and/or fading the fight. Just keep in mind, this isn’t a spot we’re looking to take a real hard stand on, as no outcome of this fight would really shock us.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma