Note: After the 6th and 7th fighters were scratched on this slate, just hours before lock, we were forced to cancel ownership projections.
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Fighter Notes:
Hunter Azure
3rd UFC Fight (2-1)Known as a wrestler, Azure interestingly has zero takedowns in his first two UFC fights. He does appear to be improving, at least from a volume perspective, as a striker, but still seems to lack KO power. He managed to land 62 significant strikes in 8 minutes and 40 seconds (a respectable 7.15 SSL/min) before getting KO’d by Kelleher in his last outing. That’s a big improvement over the 41 significant strikes he landed across 15 minutes in his UFC debut.
Coming off his first pro loss, Azure disappointed in his last outing after entering as a -225 favorite. Still priced above 9k on DraftKings, his ownership should be lower than most other favorites.
Prior to the loss, Azure was on an 8 fight winning streak, but the last three all ended in decisions. He does have three R1 KO's and a R2 submission to his name but all four of those came in his first five pro fights against opponents with records of 1-3, 1-3, 3-4, and 5-5. It seems like Azure would need a R1 finish to put up a useful score so he's best left as a low-owned contrarian play.
Cole Smith
3rd UFC Fight (2-1)Also coming off his first pro loss, both of Smith's UFC fights have ended in decisions. Pairing T-Rex arms with flamingo legs, Smith will have a 3” height advantage, while giving up 3.5” of reach to Azure.
While he does have two R1 KO’s to his name, they came against an 0-2 unknown and a 5-4 potentially retired nobody who hadn’t fought in 3 years and never fought again after. We’re obligated to mention that he also has three submissions wins, with two in R1. Three of those four early finishes came in his first four fights though so all against questionable opponents. Smith has never been finished early in any of his 8 pro fights with his only loss coming by decision.
Cole is essentially DFS antimatter who seems to give zero fucks about scoring well. His docile 1.63 SSL/min paired with his defensive 1.53 SSA/min might make you think he gets a bunch of takedowns like Bartosz Fabinski, but that would be an incorrect assumption, as he averages just 1.5 TDs/15min.
This fight has all the makings of a low scoring decision, but hey those are the ones that end up in the optimal, right? Anyways, we like Azure to win by decision in this one. Next.
Alexandr Romanov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Appropriately nicknamed “King Kong”, this man is a barbaric savage. Romanov has simply overpowered and engulfed every opponent who has dared step in the ring with him. Showcasing a perfect 11-0 record as a pro, he’ll be making his UFC debut on Saturday. His original debut was scheduled against Marcin Tybura on the marquee July 11th Usman vs Masival/Welcome to Fight Island Card, but was canceled when Romanov tested positive for COVID.
With eight weeks to recover we’re not overly concerned unless we hear news of it having been a severe case that seriously impacted training for an extended period of time. Pedro Munhoz was notably able to bounce back from COVID in less time and still beat up on Frankie Edgar for five high paced rounds.
Nine of Romanov’s 11 wins have come in R1 and the other two ended in R3. Five of the wins came by KO and the other six all came by submission. This is a bad man who can break opponents in all sorts of ways, while filling up a DFS scoresheet. He freight trains his way into earth shaking takedowns and then fully utilizes his 265 lb body to smother opponents while beating them senseless and choking them out when he feels like it.
So why isn’t Romanov a huge favorite? (UPDATE: Heavy line movement for Romanov) Well first of all, he’s never really fought anybody so it remains unknown how he’ll look against tougher competition. He’s also only made it out of the first round once and he was visibly gassed by R3—although he was still able to finish. If he’s unable to end the fight early it’s possible he runs out of steam late. We should also note, in his second most recent fight he was warned initially and then docked a point for what the ref deemed to be multiple illegal blows to the back of the head. It seems unlikely we should seriously have to worry about such things happening in this fight, but then again, it’s 2020 and all rules are off.
Despite being essentially a pick’em according to Vegas (at least early in the week) Romanov is conveniently priced $600 over Lima. This should help to keep his ownership a little lower than if the prices were flipped. Hopefully Romanov’s blank DK scoresheet along with Lima’s documented recent R1 KO will help to push the majority of the ownership onto the cheaper fighter. UPDATE: That now looks less likely with the line move in favor of Romanov.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
11th UFC Fight (6-4)De Lima is coming off a R1 KO victory continuing his pattern of alternating wins and losses over his last nine fights. The four losses over those nine fights have all come by some form of submission choke. Only one of De Lima’s 10 UFC fights has ended in a decision while seven ended in R1 (there were two R2 submission losses flanking the lone decision win).
Following a 2017 loss to OSP, De Lima moved up from Light Heavyweight to Heavyweight. In his three fights since, he’s 2-1 while slowly bulking up (253 lb in 2018, 255 lb in 2019, and 257 lb in 2020). His first Heavyweight win came against 232 lb Adan Wieczorek (10-2, 2-1 in the UFC). Wieczorek hasn’t fought again since that late 2018 bout. De Lima’s second win at heavyweight came in his most recent fight against 264 lb Ben Sosoli (7-3, 0-1 with 2 NC in the UFC). It will be interesting to monitor where De Lima weighs in on Friday (UPDATE: Lima weighed in at 260.5 lb, surprisingly 1.5 lb heavier than Romanov), but he should still be slightly lighter or at least smaller than King Kong. Combine that with De Lima’s putrid 36% takedown defense and he may quickly find himself on the mat Saturday.
In case it wasn’t obvious, we like Romanov to finish this fight in R1—most likely by some form of choke submission, but we’re not ruling out a TKO either.
Viviane Araujo
4th UFC Fight (2-1)A quick striker who’s very light on her feet, Araujo was originally scheduled to fight Jennifer Maia back on August 1st before Araujo tested positive for COVID. As a high paced fighter who relies on constant movement, it will be interesting to see if she has any lingering effects from being only a month removed from COVID.
Araujo’s coming off her first UFC loss against Jessica Eye which ended her 5 fight win streak. Her last two fights have both ended in decisions, however all eight of her other pro fights ended early, with five not making it out of R1. She has three KO wins and four by submission—3 of her 4 submission wins came by Armbar. The only time she’s been finished early came in a R1 KO in 2017.
Her only early finish in the UFC came in her debut by way of a R3 KO. She actually agreed to move up a weight class on very short notice and ended up weighing in 5 lb under the 136 lb limit. Despite being at a size disadvantage, she still managed to pull off the late KO.
In her three UFC fights Araujo has never been taken down, defending all eight attempts. She should also have a significant striking advantage in this next fight as the more accurate, powerful and quicker of the two women. She’s averaged a respectable 4.51 SSL/min while De La Rosa limps in at 2.3 SSL/min. Araujo is 3” shorter than De La Rosa but they both have a 68” reach.
Montana De La Rosa
4th UFC Fight (2-1)De La Rosa shares many similarities to Araujo on paper. Both women are 2-1 in the UFC coming off back-to-back decisions after getting early finishes in their UFC debuts. Both have several submission wins by Armbar and average 2.22 and 2.57 take downs respectively. Both have a 68” reach and have won 5 of their last 6 fights. In their UFC debuts Araujo scored 110 DraftKings points while De La Rosa scored 112. In their UFC wins that went to decisions Araujo scored 74 points while De La Rosa scored 77. But that’s where the similarities appear to end. These women have very different fighting styles that just so happen to turn out lots of similar results.
De La Rosa has a wrestling background but insists she’s working on improving her striking (never heard that one before). Prior to her last two fights she had four consecutive submission wins (3 by Armbar & 1 Rear-Naked Choke). Of her eight total career submission wins, five are by Armbar and three are by Rear-Nake Choke.
De La Rosa was originally scheduled to fight Maryna Moroz before Moroz pulled out. She was replaced by Araujo with a few weeks notice and since Araujo had already been training for her canceled August 1st match, that may not be a huge factor. More notably, De La Rosa went to Colorado to train at Team Elevation for the first time to prepare for this fight.
At first glance, this fight appears to have a wide range of potential outcomes. Both women have the submission skills needed to end the fight early, but Vegas is still expecting it to end in a decision. De La Rosa has a tough path to victory as she’s heavily reliant on getting a submission against a fighter who’s never been taken down in the UFC. Araujo has a few more ways she can win whether the fight stays on the feet or ends up on the mat. But we think she would be wise to keep it off the mat and force De La Rosa to stand and throw with her. We like Araujo by decision in this one but we wouldn’t be shocked by a finish.
Bartosz Fabinski
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Fabinski is coming off a R3 decision win against Darren Stewart, which was fought outside of the UFC in Cage Warriors due to COVID. Fabinski started his pro career in 2011 at 185 lb before eventually moving down to 170 lb. He won his first three fights at 170 before losing quickly in R1 to Michel Prazeres in 2018. Fabinski then had a 16 month layoff leading up to the Stewart match which was back up at 185 lb, where this fight will be as well.
We’ve seen Fabinski on a cicada-like schedule lately, disappearing for years at a time. He fought twice in 2015, then took 2016 AND 2017 off before fighting twice in 2018. Then he took a year and a half off before reemerging to fight in March of 2020 and now again in September. At this pace he’ll easily be able to fight well into his sixties.
Five of his last 6 fights have ended in decisions, with the only exception being his recent R1 loss. His last early win came in 2014 by way of doctor’s stoppage. All eight of his KO’s came in his first 12 fights prior to joining the UFC. None of those were against UFC caliber competition with records of: 0-2, 0-1, 1-1, 12-5, 9-6, 32-18, 9-4, and 9-15. Fabinski appears to really only use his striking to close the distance to shoot for takedowns, which is reflected in his volume stats (2.22 SSL/min, 1.35 SSA/min, and 7.17 TD/15 min).
Despite averaging a Dvalishvili-esque number of takedowns (7.17 vs. 7.71), Fabinski is not a submission threat. He has zero submission wins as a pro or amateur and he’s officially averaged 0.0 submission attempts in the UFC. His game plan seems to be to get his opponents down as quickly as possible and then smother them until the bell, while also landing a few elbows and advancing his position. Here’s how long it took for Fabinski to get his opponents to the mat in his four UFC wins: 55 seconds, 7 seconds, 6 seconds and 175 seconds.
This leaves his opponents with only the option of attempting submissions from the bottom or trying to land elbows. His last three wins all went the full 15 minutes but his opponents still only landed 13, 10 and 21 significant strikes respectively. None of them landed any takedowns or advances but they had 2, 3 and 1 submission attempts.
Two of Fabinski’s three career losses came just a minute into R1. The best strategy for beating him seems to be landing some early blows while preventing him from landing the immediate takedown he always goes for. Long story short, when you go against this guy you’re either going to score 5-10 DraftKings points or 105-110,
Since his last fight was outside of the UFC, it’s not listed on DraftKings. While most people are sharp enough to realize this, a few casuals may still think he’s coming off the 1 point loss prior to his recent win. This shouldn’t make a huge impact but could lower his ownership a tick or two.
It’s very important to note: Because of his low finishing chances, high number of advances and zero submission attempts, Fabinski is a much better play on DraftKings than on FanDuel. Yet somehow he’s priced higher on Fanduel...
Andre Muniz
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Riding high on a five fight win streak, Muniz comes in as the winner of 13 of his last 14 fights. His only loss since 2013 came to 9-0 Azamat Murzakanov. Eleven of his last 13 fights have ended early, but the two decisions were both in his last three fights. All four of his losses were by KO which is generally not something you worry about against Fabinski—unless he cuts you open with an elbow from the mat.
Twelve of Muniz’s 19 career wins are by submission and he has plenty of experience attempting Armbars and Guillotine Chokes from his back, which is likely where he’ll find himself early and often against Fabinski, especially given Muniz’s welcoming 33% takedown defense.
Muniz does have one recent R1 KO win back in 2018 but it’s not what he’s known for. It does provide some reason to think that’s a possible way he wins this fight but more likely it will require a submission.
Both guys in this fight seem to have very low floors and high ceilings with not a lot of likely outcomes in between. We see it playing out in one of three ways. 1) (Unlikely) Muniz catches Fabinski with a hard strike as Fabinski shoots for an immediate takedown, then Muniz jumps on his back and submits him. 2) (Semi-Likely) Fabinski gets Muniz down quickly but then Muniz is able to submit Fabinski from his back. 3) (Most Likely) Fabinski is able to operate his patented gameplan of takedown, advance, elbow and repeat and wins in a smothering decision.
Just remember that based on scoring and pricing, Fabinski is a better play on DraftKings and Muniz is a better play on Fanduel.
Thiago Moises
5th UFC Fight (2-2)UPDATE: THIS FIGHT IS CANCELED!
Landing just a single head-scratching significant strike in his R2 submission win over Michael Johnson, Moises had a terrible R1 but then immediately shot a takedown to start R2 and ended it with a heel hook submission when he didn’t land the takedown. If he can start this next fight the way he started R2 of his last fight then he could be interesting, but if he comes out flat in R1 he’s pretty much dead in the water.
Moises has alternated wins and losses over his last five fights, but he’s more or less won the fights he’s supposed to win and lost the ones he's supposed to lose. His two UFC wins came against Kurt Holobaugh (17-7, 0-3 in the UFC came in on a 2 fight skid) and Michael Johnson (19-16, also came in on a 2 fight skid and has now lost 6 of last 8 and 8 of last 11). His two UFC losses came to Beneil Dariush (19-4, 13-4-1 in the UFC) and Damir Ismagulov (19-1, 3-0 in the UFC).
Moises has three R1 wins in his career but two of those were in his first two pro fights. Since then, he has only one R1 win in 15 fights. That number is important because a R1 finish is likely what Moises will need to score well in DFS based on his sniping fighting style. He did get four takedowns and advances in his decision win over Holobaugh, however he failed to land any takedowns or advances in his other three UFC fights. Combine that with his tepid 2.68 SSL/min and that’s not a recipe for DFS success.
Jalin Turner
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Appropriately nicknamed “The Tarantula”, Turner comes into this fight with a 6” height advantage, a 5.5” reach advantage, and what looks like a 30” leg reach advantage. He has never been submitted as a pro but this should be his toughest test from that standpoint. All nine of his wins have come early with eight of them by KO. Ten of his 14 fights have ended in R1 (8-2 in those 10).
Similar to Moises, Turner is also 2-2 in the UFC and has also alternated wins and losses over his last five fights. And just how Moises made his debut against tough veteran Dariush, Turner was immediately thrown to the wolves in his UFC debut, getting cadavered by Vincente Luque. Turner’s only other UFC loss came in a decision against 8-1 Matt Frevola where Turner also took a vicious illegal shot to his eye in R2 that couldn’t have helped his chances.
Despite DraftKings pricing Turner at $7,200, even they have nothing bad to say about him as they mention, "Turner should enter as the favorite" in their fighter blurb. We think he'll be one of the most popular dogs. If Turner can avoid getting submitted by Moises we think he wins this fight by outpacing Moises in striking.
Brian Kelleher
10th UFC (5-4)Despite being one of the biggest favorites (on a slate lacking big favorites), Kelleher is clearly beatable. Coming off a decision loss to Cody Stamann this is an important fight for Kelleher to win. [Narrative Outlook] If he loses he's lost four of his last six but if he wins he's won three of his last four. Seven of his nine UFC fights have ended early, including four in R1.
Kelleher was originally scheduled to fight stud Ricky Simon, but Simon was forced to pull out at the end of August when one of his cornermen tested positive for COVID. Natividad then stepped in, but in some mid-fight-week chaos apparently had his own positive COVID test—afterwards stated to be a false positive. It looks like after the initial test the UFC had already found a second replacement in Ray Rodriguez who is now on stand-by if anything else goes wrong.
At age 34, Kelleher clearly has a sense of urgency with his fighting career and is looking to end fights early. He’s also acknowledged that he’s, “kind of a slow starter and is trying to work on that.” He wasn’t able to showcase that against decision machine Cody Stamann, but should have a better chance against Natividad (only 3 decisions in 10 fights).
Kevin Natividad
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Natividad is making his UFC debut while moving up to 145 lb from 135 lb where he typically fights (he had one 2013 fight at 145 lb). He’s known for getting his lead leg attacked due to his wide stance, so it will be interesting to see if Kelleher capitalizes on that. Coming off a recent 7/17/20 R2 KO win, Natividad was awarded his BJJ Brown Belt after the fight.
In his 10 pro fights, he has five KO’s and a submission win with three wins in R1. However, the records of the three opponents he ended in R1 were 0-0, 0-0 and 8-7. His only pro loss came on a 9 second R1 KO. While only three of his fights have made it to a decision, two of those occurred in his last three matches.
We expect this to be a pretty high volume fight with both guys trying to put on a good show. Both fighters are 5’6” but Natividad will actually have a 6.5” reach advantage. We like the chances of one of these two getting knocked out, we’re guessing in R2. It will most likely be Kelleher still standing when the dust settles but underdogs are due for some regression after last week’s chalkfest.
UPDATE: Natividad is OUT! Ray Rodriguez is stepping in on short notice for his UFC debut. Rodriguez will have a 7” reach advantage. He’s coming off a R3 submission win and his last six fights have all ended early (4-2 over those six). The two losses over that period both came to guys currently in the UFC in Chris Gutierrez and Tony Gravely. He has 5 first round wins in his last 12 fights. It’s notable that he has eight submission wins and Kelleher has been submitted in six of his eleven losses. NOTE: DraftKings & FanDuel will NOT be adding Rodriguez but Kelleher WILL still accrue points. Important day to watch the new closely as it breaks late!
Michel Pereira
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Cirque du Soleil style fighter Michael Pereira is coming off back-to-back losses with the most recent one coming from an unfortunate R3 DQ for an illegal knee in a fight he was clearly winning by a wide margin. Five of his last six fights have ended early with three ending in R1. His last 6 wins all ended early with 4 in R1.
If he can stop doing back flips long enough to focus on fighting, Pereira has a high ceiling with KO power and submission skills. This guy is huge at 170 lb and has all the physical skills needed. The hope would be that he comes in more focused after consecutive losses and now fighting for a contract, but expecting rational decision making from this lunatic might be wishful thinking. To his credit he did tone down the backflips some in his last fight (he still did at least one).
An actual quote from Periera on this training for this fight, “I trained with cows, working on taking them down, and running with horses. I had different experiences with different animals and tried to work on different strategies to bring something new to the Octagon.” So maybe expect some mule kicks in this fight?
Zelim Imadaev
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Imadaev came into the UFC on an eight fight win streak, all by KO, including five in R1. However those were against a lower level of competition with records going into those fights of 0-2, 0-2, 0-0, 0-0, 2-0, 0-0, 9-8, and 16-8-1.
He then lost his UFC debut in an uneventful three round decision against Max Griffin who had lost his two fights prior to that win and went on to lose his two fights following it. Imadaev followed that up with a R2 KO loss at the hands of Danny Roberts. Yes, the same Danny Roberts who was coming off a R1 KO loss against Michel Pereira.
Maybe we’re missing something here, but outside of winning by DQ we don’t see a ton of upside for Imadaev. But Vegas has this fight as essentially a coin flip leading to both DFS sites pricing the fighters adjacent to one another. Based on the pricing and Imadaev being the less flashy fighter, he should be lower owned on both sites, making him at least useful as a contrarian play. And as a bonus you don’t have to worry about him flaking out like you do with Pereira. But we’re still rolling the dice with the lunatic on this one—give us Pereira in a contract earning early KO.
Alonzo Menifield
4th UFC Fight (2-1)This fight was rescheduled only two weeks after it was originally canceled just hours before the August 22nd slate was scheduled to start, when OSP tested positive for COVID. Hopefully they have better luck with this quick reschedule than they did with the same timeframe that came back to bite them on the Cutelaba/Ankalaev cancelation/reschedule. Can we go back to the island yet? Anyways...
Former college, CFL and Arena League football player, Menifield's explosive power is clear to anyone that's watched him throw a punch. However what he makes up for in power he lacks in experience, cardio and technique. And his one trick pony approach can be as frustrating as it is exciting, as we saw his last time out.
Coming off a disappointing first career loss to Devin Clark by decision just a couple months ago, Menifield will look to get back on track against veteran OSP. Before that last fight Menifield was on a nine fight win streak with all nine coming by way of early finish (seven in R1 & two in R2). Clark appeared to lay out a blue print of how you beat Menifield by tying him up against the cage and testing his gas tank, so it will be interesting to see how both Menifield responds and how OSP approaches the fight.
We expect Menefield's mid tier-price and one-punch KO ability to drive up his ownership beyond his actual chances of scoring a R1 KO.
Ovince Saint Preux
22nd UFC UFC Fight (12-9)Dropping back down to light heavyweight after a failed attempt at moving up to heavyweight (a decision loss to Ben Rothwell), OSP comes in a loser of 3 of the last 4, and 4 of his last 6 fights. After starting his UFC career 7-2, he's gone 5-7 since fighting Jon Jones in 2016. Now 37 years old, you have to wonder how many wins OSP has left in him.
The one bright spot for DFS purposes is OSP's last five wins all came early, with a R3 KO and four submissions (two in R1 & two in R2). Three of those submissions came via his patented Von Flue Choke with the fourth coming by Armbar. However, despite the early finishes, none of those wins scored over 100 points on DraftKings.
OSP has only been KO'd twice in 38 fights as a pro. The first time was a R2 KO before joining the UFC in 2009 against Virgil Zwicker, who has 13 of 17 wins by KO. His only UFC KO loss came in 2016 against another KO specialist, Jimi Manuwa (15 of 17 wins by KO), also in R2. Win or lose, OSP is not an easy guy to knock out. Here are some of his past opponents who he's taken to a decision: Ben Rothwell (28 of 38 wins by KO), Dominick Reyes (7 of 12 wins by KO), Volkan Oezdemir (12 of 17 wins by KO). Note: Reyes was very close to getting a KO, knocking down OSP right before the horn at the end of the fight in what looked like it could have been called a KO.
OSP has been finished early twice in his last four losses but both times were by submission, which is definitely not what power-puncher Alonzo Menifield is known for (he did however have one Rear-Naked Choke submission pre UFC). If OSP can survive R1 we think he wins this fight either by submission or taking it to a decision.
Interesting to note, FanDuel had Menifield priced at $17 and OSP at $16 the last time this fight was scheduled (also a 10 fight slate), but decided to bump Menifield up to $18 this go-round.
Alistair Overeem
19th UFC Fight (11-7)Overeem has amazingly been fighting professionally since 1999 and in the UFC since 2011. With a ridiculous 64 pro fights under his belt, and at age 40 you would have to think the end is in sight, but that wasn’t on display in his R2 KO win over Walt Harris back in May. Bouncing back from a R5 KO loss against Rozenstruik, Overeem has now won 3 of his last 4. Ten of his last 11 fights have ended with someone KO’d. The only four guys to beat him since 2014 are Rozenstruik, Blaydes, Ngannou, and Miocic (not too shabby). Over that six year span he’s 9-4 and has shown that while he’s not going to shock the world and beat the guys at the top of the division, he’s very efficient at winning the fights he’s supposed to win or are near a coin flip.
Since 2005 he’s lost 13 times, 12 by KO and once by submission. Eight of those losses were in R1, two were in R2, two came in R3, and his most recent loss came in R5 against Rozenstruik. So when he does lose, his opponent typically scores well. On a nine fight slate it’s tough to see fading the main event paying working out, but in the off chance it ends up lower scoring that would be a great way to differentiate your lineups.
Augusto Sakai
5th UFC Fight (4-0)While two of Sakai’s last three fights have ended in decisions, we think that had more to do with his opponents than with Sakai. One was against human-tank and heart stab survivor Blagoy Ivanov, who’s never been KO’d in pro 22 fights despite going against guys like Derrick Lewis, Ben Rothwell, Junior Dos Santos and Alexander Volkov. The other was against veteran Andrei Arlovski who’s gone to decisions in eight of his last nine fights with the exception coming against Rozenstruik.
Sakai does have one R1 KO in his four-fight UFC career but the other three fights all made it to R3. Going farther back in his career, he’s 15-1 with 11 of his wins coming by KO.
We wouldn’t be shocked to see Sakai pull the upset, but Overeem likely wins this one. We don’t see it going the distance, but Sakai has also never been KO’d so it will be interesting to see how he holds up against the behemoth that is Alistair Overeem.