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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Emily Ducote
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut following back-to-back Strawweight championship wins in Invicta, three of Ducote’s last four opponents have UFC experience in Danielle Taylor, Juliana Lima, and Kanako Murata. She also fought another UFC fighter in Emily Whitmire back in her 2015 pro debut. In addition to that, Ducote has eight fights worth of experience with Bellator. So overall, she has more experience than your typical fighter making their UFC debut. Ducote has won three straight and five of her last six fights, with her only loss during that stretch coming in a five-round split decision against Kanako Murata in a 2019 Invicta Strawweight Championship fight. She came close to locking up an armbar at multiple points in that loss, but wasn’t quite able to complete it.
In her last fight, Ducote was content with methodically counter striking and looking to land a few big shots opposed to racking up much volume. She didn’t attempt any takedowns for the second straight fight, despite having a wrestling background. Although she didn’t need to wrestle, as she was able to damage the eye of her opponent which forced the fight to be stopped following the second round. Overall, it was an uneventful match and the first round was split on the scorecards.
Now 11-6 as a pro, Ducote has three wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and four decisions. All three of her KO/TKO wins have come in the first two rounds of her last five fights. Three of her four submission wins occurred in rounds two and three, with her only first round submission ending in a 2017 rear-naked choke. She’s never been knocked out, but was submitted once in the 5th round of a 2017 Bellator Flyweight title fight. Ducote followed that up with two more losses in Bellator at 125 lb, before leaving the organization and dropping back down to 115 lb in 2019, where she’s since gone 5-1. She started her career at 115 lb in 2015, but moved up to 125 lb in 2016 and four of her six career losses came at 125 lb, with both of her 115 lb losses coming against fighters who are currently in the UFC. Outside of her one early loss, Ducote also has five decision defeats and is just 4-5 with the judges in her career. Three of her last four wins have come by KO/TKO, after she failed to land any knockouts in her first 12 pro fights.
Overall, Ducote is a patient counter striker, who doesn’t throw much volume. While she wrestled in both high-school and college, she didn’t even attempt a takedown in four of her last five fights, and relies almost entirely on her striking. With that said, she’s a newly minted BJJ black belt and will look for armbars off her back. She’s also a black belt in Taekwondo. She appears pretty well rounded, but didn’t blow us away with anything she’s done up to this point. She is still just 28 years old, so she does still have time to make improvements.
Jessica Penne
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Coming off consecutive wins for the first time in the UFC, Penne landed a late first round armbar against Karolina Kowalkiewicz in her last fight. Just prior to that she won a close/questionable decision over a debuting Lupita Godinez, in what was Penne’s first fight since 2017. Penne had been scheduled to face Luana Pinheiro in November 2021 and April 2022, but ended up withdrawing both times. Then she had been set to face Brianna Fortino here, but Fortino withdrew and Ducote stepped in with about six weeks notice.
Penne was thrown straight into the fire early in her UFC career, getting a title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in just her second UFC fight. Penne didn’t look even remotely ready for that fight and went 0 for 11 on takedowns and was outlanded 126-25 in significant strikes and 162-28 in total strikes in a third round TKO defeat. A year later, the UFC paired her up with Jessica Andrade and once again Penne absorbed a life shortening beatdown, as she was again massively outlanded 117-27 in significant strikes and 118-28 in total strikes, while failing to land any of her six takedown attempts and getting finished by TKO in the second round. She then faced a much easier opponent in Danielle Taylor, but ended up losing a close decision. Following her third straight loss, we didn’t see Penne inside of the Octagon for almost exactly four years as she battled a USADA suspension, claiming her innocence all along. She finally returned in April 2021 when she faced Godinez.
In Penne's last fight, Kowalkiewicz idiotically volunteered to engage on the mat with Penne early in the first round where Penne immediately reversed the position and controlled her from that point on as she slowly worked towards an armbar finish late in the round. The fight ended with Penne ahead 12-8 in significant strikes.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Penne has two wins by KO, eight by submission, and four decisions. She has two TKO losses, one by submission, and two decision defeats. Two of her last three decisions have been split, and she won both of those. All three of her early losses occurred in the later rounds, while six of her 10 early wins came in round one. Penne started her pro career at Strawweight, but moved down to Atomweight in 2012, where she went 3-1. However, she moved back up to Strawweight in 2014 when she went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2014 and never returned to the Atomweight division.
Overall, Penne is a one-dimensional grappler and BJJ black belt. Just like Ducote, Penne is a former Invicta champion, although she was competing at Atomweight in her Invicta days. Penne has gone just 9 for 37 (24%) on takedown attempts in the UFC, but has improved her accuracy some recently, going 5 for 12 (42%) in her last three fights. Penne doesn’t offer much on the feet and has only landed more than 39 significant strikes once in her UFC career, which was when she totaled 69 in a decision loss to Danielle Taylor.
Fight Prediction:
Penne will have a 3” height and reach advantage, while Ducote is 11 years younger than the 39-year-old Penne
We’ve seen Penne get overwhelmed on the feet against high-volume strikers like Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade, but those were both volume driven finishes and Penne has never been knocked down in her career. Ducote is a low-volume striker with a wrestling background, which should slow down the pace of this fight as she won’t be looking to overwhelm Penne with volume, but is also well equipped to defend the takedown attempts of Penne. We don’t expect Ducote to be looking for many takedowns of her own, as she’s been content with counter striking on the feet. Both of these two fighters are submission threats and BJJ black belts, so a grappling stalemate is possible. Ducote would be fine with that, as she’s only even attempted a takedown in one of her last five fights, but Penne has never won a UFC or Invicta fight without landing at least one takedown. We did see Ducote get taken down seven times by Kanako Murata back in 2019, which is encouraging for Penne’s chances of at least finding some success on the ground. If Penne is at least able to land a couple of takedowns, we could see this end in a very close decision, as Ducote doesn’t land enough striking volume to set herself apart. Because of that, we’re willing to take a flyer on the vet here at plus money, even though we’ve never been impressed by anything we’ve seen out of her. Give us Penne by split-decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Penne Split-Decision” at +1100.
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DFS Implications:
Ducote is a low-volume striker who has failed to attempt a takedown in four of her last five fights, despite being a BJJ black belt and former college wrestler. She also holds a black belt in Taekwondo, but that doesn’t really show in the way she fights. She’s a patient counter striker who relies on landing well timed punches to win fights and hasn’t been overly impressive outside of a highlight reel knockout of former UFC fighter Danielle Taylor. Her style doesn’t appear conducive to DFS production and she’ll be reliant on landing a finish here to score well. The odds imply she has a 58% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Penne relies on her grappling to win fights and now she’ll face a fellow BJJ black belt who’s also a former college wrestler. That’s certainly far from ideal for Penne’s potential scoring upside, but her grappling heavy-style, experience advantage, and cheaper price tag are all encouraging for her chances of returning value. The fact that she’s coming off a career best 107 point DraftKings score in her first early win in the UFC could bump up her ownership a little, but she still projects to be pretty low owned. Her two UFC decision wins scored 69 and 94 DraftKings points, showing a low floor, but also the possibility for her to sneak into tournament winning lineups even without a finish. We’re not overly excited about either one of these fights, but Penne appears to offer more scoring upside of the two. The odds imply Penne has a 42% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Dwight Grant
8th UFC Fight (3-4)After losing two straight and three of his last four, Grant is making a desperation move up from 170 lb to 185 lb at 37 years old. He’s less than three months removed from a second round TKO loss to Sergey Khandozhko, who came into that fight off a two and a half year layoff. Prior to that, Grant lost a split decision to Francisco Trinaldo, won a split decision over Stefan Sekulic, and got knocked out by Daniel Rodriguez.
In his last fight, Grant got dropped by Khandozhko early in the first round, but recovered quickly and bounced back with a knockdown of his own late in the round. The two trade strikes in round two until Khandozhko dropped Grant again late in the round and forced a stoppage as he continued to punch as Grant returned to his feet. You could argue the stoppage was a little quick as Grant was standing up when the ref stepped in, but Grant was clearly hurt. The fight ended with Khandozhko ahead 49-42 in significant strikes and 49-47 in total strikes, with both fighters landing their only takedown attempt.
Now 11-5 as a pro, Grant has seven wins by KO and four decision victories. He’s also been knocked out twice and has three decision losses. All four of Grant’s UFC decisions have amazingly been split (2-2). Grant’s only knockout win since joining the UFC came in the first round of a 2019 fight against Carlo Pedersoli Jr., who finished his UFC career 1-2 with a pair of R1 KO losses. His two career KO losses both occurred in his last four fights. Grant fought his first three pro fights at 185 lb, but then moved down to 170 lb until this fighter, where he’ll move back up to 185 lb.
Overall, Grant is a patient counter striker who’s never landed more than 49 significant strikes in a UFC fight. Despite the lack of volume, Grant is dangerous on the feet as he throws strikes from odd angles, which makes it tougher for opponents to defend. It will be interesting to see how his power holds up at the high weight class. He has a 68% career takedown defense, as he’s been taken down eight times on 24 attempts in the UFC and also defended the only attempt against him on DWCS. However, he’s been taken down 5 times on 11 attempts in his last three fights, with each of those opponents taking him down at least once. He also hasn’t faced many wrestlers or else his takedown defense might look worse.
Dustin Stoltzfus
4th UFC Fight (0-3)Getting one final shot in the UFC, Stoltzfus has lost all three of his fights with the organization, but those all notably came against high-level grapplers, whereas now he’ll face a striker for the first time. He lost a decision to Kyle Daukaus in his 2020 debut, and was then submitted in the third round by both Rodolfo Vieira and Gerald Meerschaert in his next two fights. Leading up to those losses, Stoltzfus split the first two rounds against Vieira and Meerschaert and looked to be on his way to defeating Meerschaert. Stoltzfus came into the UFC on a 10 fight winning streak, although, after seeing him in his first two UFC fights, you have to wonder about the level of competition he had been facing. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a freak elbow injury TKO on DWCS in August 2020 when his opponent's elbow dislocated as Stoltzfus slammed him on the mat. It seemed like a pretty close fight before the injury, so it’s hard to take too much away from the outcome.
In that recent loss, the fight played out mostly on the mat, with Meerschaert finishing the fight midway through the third round with a rear-naked choke. Stoltzfus finished ahead in significant strikes 12-11 and in total strikes 51-19, while also landing all four of his takedowns and only getting taken down by Meerschaert once. Stoltzfus also led in control time 7:27-3:14, although Meerschaert finished with three official submission attempts and was the one constantly looking to end the fight from whatever position he was in.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Stoltzfus has two wins by KO, five by submission, five decisions and one DQ win. Two of his four losses have gone the distance, while he was submitted in the third round of his other two defeats. He’s never been knocked out. Stoltzfus competed as high as 205 lb some early in his career, but has fought exclusively at 185 lb since 2015.
Overall, Stoltzfus has been unimpressive so far in the UFC, but hasn’t had any good matchups to really showcase his wrestling. He’s a black belt in Luta Livre and landed five straight finishes leading up to his UFC debut. He’s only averaged 2.87 SSL/min in his three UFC fights and has just a 33% takedown accuracy and 46% takedown defense. He failed to land a takedown on 10 attempts in his first two UFC fights, before landing all four of his attempts in his last match.
Fight Prediction:
Grant will have a 1” height and reach advantage, but Stoltzfus is seven years younger than the 37-year-old Grant.
This is your classic striker versus grappler matchup between two guys struggling to keep their jobs. There’s no question that Stoltzfus will be cut with another loss here, whereas Grant may have slightly more wiggle room. Regardless, this is a high-stakes low-level matchup that should simply come down to how Grant’s takedown defense holds up. Grant hasn’t finished an opponent later beyond the first round since 2018, before he joined the UFC, and his last four decisions have all been close/split. He doesn’t offer anything on the mat and relies mostly on knocking out his opponents to win fights. Now he’s moving up a weight class and facing an opponent who has never been knocked out and will be looking to grapple, so overall this looks like a tough spot for Grant to get a finish. With that said, Stoltzfus doesn’t appear to be a UFC level talent and has faced three straight grapplers, so he hasn’t had his chin tested yet in the UFC. That makes this a higher variance spot and Grant is fully capable of knocking him out. With that said, we’ll take the grappler here and say Stoltzfus is able to grind out a decision on the mat, with a slight chance he can find a finish on the ground.
Our favorite bet here is Stoltzfus’ ML at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Grant is the ultimate R1 KO or bust fighter, and since scoring 109 DraftKings points in a R1 KO in his second UFC fight, he’s failed to top 56 points in any of his last five matches. His two UFC decision wins have been “good” for just 45 and 56 points and he’s a low-volume counter striker who offers nothing in terms of grappling. To make matters worse, now he’ll be moving up a weight class and facing a wrestler who’s never been knocked out. Working in Grant’s favor, Stoltzfus is 0-3 in the UFC and has faced three straight grapplers, so we;ve yet to see his chin tested at this level. That adds some uncertainty into the mix and Grant is always live to land a knockout. The field hates Grant and he was just 18% owned, priced at $7,900 on a 12 fight card in his last outing, so we expect him to again be low owned at his significantly higher price tag. That makes him an interesting tournament play, but he’s definitely not a guy you can trust and he’ll likely have a small window to land a knockout and return value. And even if he does get a first round knockout, there’s still a chance he gets outscored by the fighter priced around him and left of winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Stoltzfus has yet to notch a UFC win or top 46 DraftKings points, but he’s also faced three straight tough grapplers and will now go up against a pure striker for the first time in the UFC. Stoltzfus is a wrestler himself, so this sets up as a good matchup for him to finally dominate a fight on the ground, as Grant is a one-dimensional striker who’s been taken down at least once by each of his last three opponents. Stoltzfus will be fighting for his job as he sits on an 0-3 UFC record, and may not only need a win, but also a statement performance if he wants any chance at sticking around. That makes him an interesting underdog play, although after seeing the line move in his favor his ownership will surely rise as he’s mispriced at just $7,300 on DraftKings. That’s annoying for tournaments but it is what it is. The odds imply Stoltzfus has a 44% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #10
Dustin Jacoby
8th UFC Fight (4-2-1)Coming off his third straight win, Jacoby has gone the distance in four of his last five fights, with the one exception being a 2021 R1 KO win over Darren Stewart. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2015, going 7-0-1 over that stretch. Jacoby’s only other early win in the UFC was a R1 KO against Justin Ledet in 2020. That was Jacoby’s first fight back with the UFC after he originally joined in 2011 at just 23 years old, but was cut in 2012 following an 0-2 start. Following his departure, he went 6-3 in MMA fights outside of the UFC with three R1 KO wins, three decision victories, one decision loss, a R2 KO loss, and a R2 submission loss. He also stepped away from MMA entirely to try kickboxing for a four year period from 2015 to 2019, where he also went 6-3, including a win over UFC fighter Karl Roberson. Jacoby returned to MMA in 2019 and hasn’t lost a fight since.
In his last fight, Jacoby fought through leg and foot injuries and threw almost no leg kicks in the fight, which is typically one of his primary attacks. He only threw two total leg kicks after throwing 23 in his previous match. Nevertheless, Jacoby was still able to outland his way to a decision win with his boxing and actually looked close to landing a finish in round two. He finished the fight ahead 89-69 in significant strikes and 107-72 in total strikes, with both fighters landing one of their two takedown attempts.
Now 17-5-1 as a pro, Jacoby has 10 wins by KO, one by submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. Jacoby’s last 12 wins have all either ended in R1 KOs or decisions. The only time he’s landed a finish beyond the first round in his career was a 2011 R2 TKO by doctor stoppage. His other 16 wins have all ended in either decisions (6) or first round wins (10). All but one of those first round finishes came by KO, but he did land a triangle choke in 2011 in his third pro fight. The only time he’s ever been knocked out was in the second round of a 2014 Bellator fight, but he has been submitted twice (2012 & 2015), and has also lost two decisions (2011 & 2012). He also has a draw against Ion Cutelaba. In Jacoby’s initial stint with the UFC he fought at 185 lb, however, he’s since moved up to 205 lb in his return to MMA. Jacoby acknowledged that he probably wasn’t ready for the UFC at 23 years old and lacked the confidence required. He says he’s in a much better place now and is ready to make a run in the Light Heavyweight division.
Overall, Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who averages a healthy 5.30 SSL/min, while absorbing just 3.75/min. He’s never landed more than one takedown in a fight and doesn’t really add anything when it comes to grappling. It’s been seven and a half years since anyone finished him and he’s looked very durable, however, this looks to be the toughest test of his UFC career.
Da-Un Jung
6th UFC Fight (4-0-1)Continuing an impressive run, Jung has gone 14-0-1 in his last 15 fights and became the first fighter to ever knock out Kennedy Nzechukwu in his last fight. Prior to that KO win, Jung fought to a pair of decisions against William Knight and Sam Alvey. The Alvey fight actually ended in a draw, which is the only time he hasn’t come out victorious since 2015.
In Jung’s recent win, Kennedy started a little slow as he typically does, and midway through the first round was made to pay for it as Jung landed a series of heavy elbows to end the fight. We only saw 22 combined strikes landed, with Jung leading 16-6.
Now 15-2-1 as a pro, Jung has 11 wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. The only early loss of his career came in 2015 in his third pro fight in a first round submission against Roque Martinez when he was still fighting at Heavyweight. After going 1-2 at Heavyweight in his first three pro fights, Jung dropped down to Light Heavyweight in 2016 and has never lost a fight since. He’s only been to four decisions in 18 pro fights, and generally knocks his opponents out.
Overall, Jung is a dangerous striker, who throws heavy elbows, and also showed he can wrestle when he landed eight takedowns against William Knight. However, that’s the only UFC fight where Jung has even landed a takedown, so you never know what his game plan will be. Three of his four UFC wins have come early, with two of those ending in first round knockouts.
Fight Prediction:
Jung will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also six years younger than the 34-year-old Jacoby.
We saw the line abruptly flip in Jung’s favor early in the week, and the move reeks of an undisclosed injury for Jacoby. We know Jacoby was battling leg and foot injuries in March and he hasn’t had a ton of time to recover, so maybe he thought he was good to go only to find out he’s still not 100% after already signing the contract. Who knows, that’s pure speculation, but we should find out on Saturday. Both of these two have been so durable that we like it to go the distance, but the winner will likely be determined by whether or not Jacoby is healthy enough to throw leg kicks. If he is, we like him to pick Jung apart from distance, but if he’s not Jung should be able to land heavy elbows from up close and overall is the bigger and more powerful fighter. Until we see how Jacoby looks once the fight begins, it’s really tough to pick a winner here. If Jacoby doesn’t throw a leg kick in the opening minute or two of the fight, we’d live bet Jung if the line hasn’t already gotten out of control.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Jacoby is a quintessential R1 or bust DFS play, which generally makes it easy to determine your correct exposure level. He’s scored 106 and 119 DraftKings points in his two R1 KOs and 80, 91, 45, and 55 in his three decision wins. He’s a pure kickboxer who rarely lands any takedowns and he’s entirely reliant on striking, knockdowns and finishes to score well. This sets up as possibly the toughest matchup of his career against an opponent who’s never been knocked out, and now the line has flipped from Jacoby being the favorite to start the week to being the underdog. While that should keep his ownership low and makes him a solid tournament leverage play, the abrupt move is fishy and Jacoby may still be dealing with leg injuries that he revealed after his last fight in March. We’d tread lightly in this spot. The odds imply he has a 46% chance to win, a 26% chance to end it early, and a 12% chance it comes in the first round.
Jung has scored 102 or more DraftKings points in three of his four UFC wins and yet to be defeated in five trips inside the Octagon (4-0-1). After failing to land a takedown in his first three UFC fights, he surprisingly landed 8 takedowns on 9 attempts in his second most recent match against a wrestler in William Knight, showing that he does actually have some wrestling upside when he chooses to use it. While he also has a solid history of landing knockouts, two of his last three fights ended in decisions and now he’s facing an opponent who’s only been knocked out once in his career (2014). The massive line move will drive Jung’s ownership way up, making him a less appealing tournament play, but a solid low-risk option. The odds imply he has a 54% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Bill Algeo
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Algeo had been scheduled to face Billy Quarantillo here but he withdrew. On the other side of things, Burns had been set to face Khusein Askhabov, but he also, so the UFC naturally paired these two 145ers against each other with eight days to adjust for the opponent change. While Quarantillo is a UFC veteran, Askhabov would have been making his UFC debut, albeit with a perfect 23-0 pro record.
Continuing to alternate wins and losses for his last seven fights, Algeo has fought to six straight decisions and the last time we saw one of his fights end early was in a 2019 second round submission win just before he lost a decision on DWCS in 2019.
In Algeo’s last fight, Brito started well, landing two takedowns early in the first round. However, Algeo reversed the position on the mat and seemed to take over from that point on as Brito began to slow down some. Brito failed to land a takedown in the later rounds, while Algeo was able to take him down in both rounds two and three on just two attempts. Algeo finished ahead in significant strikes 59-40 and in total strikes 112-46, while both fighters landed a pair of takedowns with roughly five minutes of control time. Brito continued to push forward throughout the match, but Algeo was able to land strikes from the outside and remain out of danger. The fight ended in a unanimous decision win for Algeo.
Now 15-6 as a pro, Algeo has three wins by KO, six by submission, and six decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, and also has four decision losses. After his first two pro fights ended in first round submissions in 2012 (1-1), 18 of his last 19 matches have seen the second round, including his most recent 14 fights. Six of his nine early wins have occurred in the second round.
Overall, Algeo is a cocky BJJ black belt who lacks the humility to learn from his mistakes. He’s so confident in his submission defense that he’s never improved his wrestling defense, and he gets taken down a lot. He has just a 55% takedown defense, and has been taken down 19 times on 41 attempts in his four UFC fights and three times on eight attempts in his DWCS match. All five of those opponents landed at least two takedowns against him and Algeo’s only two UFC wins both came against gassers. Algeo was taken down 13 times on 24 attempts in his two UFC decision losses. He likes to showboat on the feet, but isn’t an especially dangerous striker. He’s also only landed one submission win since 2014 and overall appears content with fighting to close decisions.
Herbert Burns
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off a 23 month layoff, Burns hasn’t fought since getting finished in a second round TKO by Daniel Pineda back in August 2020. He had two fights booked in 2021, but ended up withdrawing from both of them. Prior to the loss in his last fight, he landed a pair of first round finishes in his first two UFC fights, and had finished five straight opponents in the first two rounds overall, including his last four in round one. He made his way into the UFC with a first round submission win over Darrick Minner on DWCS in 2019. He followed that up with a first round KO win over Nate Landwehr, where he nearly finished the fight with a submission before landing the knockout. Next, Burns submitted Evan Dunham with a first round rear-naked choke 80 seconds in.
In his last fight, Burns missed weight by 3 lb and looked terrible on the scale leading up to the match. Pineda did a great job of commanding the fight and reversing positions against the BJJ black belt. He was able to finish Burns as the ref stopped the fight late in the second round as Pineda pummeled Burns on the ground in the Crucifix position. The fight ended with Burns landing three of his four takedown attempts, but Pineda leading 57-10 in significant strikes and 173-35 in total strikes, with one takedown of his own on two attempts.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Burns has one win by KO, eight submissions, and two decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished was in his recent R2 TKO loss, with his other two losses both ending in decisions. Eight of Burns’ nine finishes came in round one, while he also has one in round two. Burns is just 1-3 in his last four fights to make it out of the first round, so he’s mostly been reliant on landing quick finishes.
Overall, Burns is a good grappler but not a great striker. He’s a 3rd degree BJJ black belt and obviously gets a name bump from his brother. But Herbert is nowhere close to the talent of his brother, he’s still very dangerous on the mat. At 34 years old and coming off nearly a two-year layoff, it will be interesting to see how he bounces back from the first early loss of his career.
Fight Prediction:
Algeo will have a 3” height advantage, but both fighters share a 73” reach.
Algeo hasn’t stitched together wins since 2018-2019, so it will be interesting to see if he can change that here. He never appears very focussed in the Octagon or driven to look for finishes. Instead, he typically relies on his cardio and durability to outlast his opponents and ground out decision wins, while trying to look cool. Algeo has been submitted twice in his career, and Burns is always dangerous on the mat in the first halves of fights, so if Algeo isn’t careful he may find himself getting submitted early in this one. However, if he can stay out of danger he likely goes on to win a close decision. Based on the odds, we’re more interested in Burns’ side of things, but this is a higher variance spot for him following the extended layoff, so he has the potential to look significantly worse or better than people expect.
Our favorite bet here is Burns’ ML at +180.
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DFS Implications:
Algeo has shown a decent floor but no ceiling, with DraftKings scores of 88 and 85 in his two UFC wins, which both ended in decisions. His last six fights have all gone the distance, so he hasn’t shown us much finishing upside and his last 14 fights have all made it out of round one. While he’s a BJJ black belt and has some grappling upside, he’s only landed four takedowns in his four UFC fights, and now he’ll go against another BJJ black belt who poses more of a submission threat. These two only had eight days to prepare for one another after each of their original opponents dropped out, and Burns hasn’t fought in 23 months, which both contribute to this being a high variance spot. At his high price tag, Algeo will either need a finish or a less likely dominant grappling performance to return value and Burns has only been finished once in his career. Algeo does average 5.88 SSL/min (2nd most on the slate), and Burns averages 5.02 SSA/min (3rd most on the slate), which is encouraging for Algeo’s chances of putting up a big striking total, but we’ve yet to see Algeo land more than 89 significant strikes in a fight and his striking numbers are inflated by his 2019 DWCS high-volume decision loss. There’s still a chance Algeo can score well in a win here, but we’re not overly excited about him at his steep price. The odds imply Algeo has a 64% chance to win, a 34% chance to get a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in the first round.
Burns has mostly been an early submission or bust fighter in his career, with all but one of his nine finishes coming in round one and all but one ending in a submission. Working in his favor in this matchup, Algeo has been submitted twice in his career, but he is notably a BJJ black belt and his submission defense hasn’t been terrible, with both of those losses coming earlier in his career. Burns’ name recognition should drive up his ownership some, but the fact that he’s coming off a bad early loss followed by a 23 month layoff should keep it under control. Burns scored 99 and 111 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins, which both ended in the first round, and at his cheap price tag he likely ends up in tournament winning lineups if he can pull off the upset here.
Fight #8
Jack Shore
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Fresh off his third straight decision win, Shore kept his undefeated record intact with a win over a tough Timur Valiev in front of Shore’s home English crowd. Prior to that win, Shore fought through some injuries to defeat short notice replacement Liudvik Sholinian in another decision. Shore stuffed all four of Sholinian’s takedown attempts, which is notable as Sholinian was a member of the Ukrainian National Wrestling team. Looking back one fight further, Shore narrowly won a split decision over a former college wrestler in Hunter Azure, where Shore stuffed all six of Azure’s takedown attempts. Prior to the string of recent decision wins, Shore submitted three straight opponents after knocking out the two prior to that going back to his Cage Warriors days.
In his recent win, Shore lost the first round on all three judges’ scorecards, but bounced back to win both of the later rounds to secure a unanimous decision, although the second round was very close. Shore nearly landed a third round finish, dropping Valiev with a stiff right hand early in the third round and then again in the final minute of the fight. However, Valiev was able to hang on both times and tried to land a finish of his own with a guillotine attempt midway through the round. Overall, Shore’s striking looked improved and he proved he could hang on the feet with a dangerous striker like Valiev. The numbers in the fight were close, with Valiev finishing ahead in significant strikes 72-70 and Shore leading in total strikes 87-75. Shore landed three takedowns on seven attempts, while Valiev landed two of his three attempts and had the only official submission attempt in the match. Shore was able to land the two knockdowns and also led in control time 4:42-2:03.
Now 16-0 as a pro, Shore has four wins by KO, eight by submission, and four decisions. His last four finishes have all come in the later rounds, with one in round two and three in round three. After turning pro in 2016, Shore fought at 145 lb until 2017 when he moved down to the 135 lb division where he’s stayed since.
A sparring partner of Brett Johns, the 27-year-old Shore is a strong wrestler and has shown improved striking as well. He’s a BJJ black belt and has only been taken down twice on 13 attempts so far in the UFC and has an 84.6% takedown defense. On the other side of things, he’s landed 18 takedowns on 43 attempts (41.9%) in his five UFC fights, with at least two in each of those matches.
Ricky Simon
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Coming in on a four fight winning streak, Simon recently knocked out an aging Raphael Assuncao, who entered that fight on a three fight skid with two of those losses coming early and hasn’t fought since. Simon impressively has wins over Merab Dvalishvili, Montel Jackson, and Rani Yahya. He was able to catch Dvalishvili and Jackson early in their careers and was losing to Dvalishvili until he landed a submission as time expired in the fight. That win came in Simon’s UFC debut and it was Dvalishvili’s second UFC fight. In Simon’s second UFC fight he took on a debuting Montel Jackson, who had only turned pro a year earlier. Simon landed two takedowns against Dvalishvili, seven against Jackson and then four against Rani Yahya in his next fight.
In that recent win, Simon was able to take Assuncao down twice in the first first round and control him for nearly four minutes in the round. Round two stayed entirely on the feet and midway through Simon knocked Assuncao out with a big right hand. The fight ended with Simon ahead 18-7 in significant strikes and 27-10 in total strikes, while landing two of his four takedown attempts with four minutes of control time.
Now 19-3 as a pro, Simon has six wins by KO, three by submission, and 10 decisions. He’s been knocked out once (R1 by Urijah Faber in 2019), submitted once (R2 by Anderson dos Santos in 2016), and has one decision loss (Rob Font 2019). Eight of Simon’s last nine fights have seen the second round, with six making it to round three, and five going the distance.
Overall, Simon is a relentless wrestler who averages a slate-leading 12.5 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. In his nine UFC fights, Simon had landed 41 takedowns on 82 attempts (50%), while getting taken down by his opponents 9 times on 36 attempts (25%). He also landed 14 takedowns on 19 and attempts while getting taken down once on DWCS, which are factored into his official numbers. He’s landed at least two takedowns in all of his fights except his R1 KO loss to Urijah Faber. After getting taken down eight times himself in his first two UFC fights against Dvalishvili and Jackson, he’s only been taken down once on 12 attempts in his last seven fights.
Fight Prediction:
Shore will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
This is a really compelling matchup between two impressive wrestlers. Simon is the more tested of the two, with wins over several other high profile names in the division, while Shore has only faced one real test in the UFC, which was in his recent close decision win over Timur Valiev. Shore is two years younger than the 29-year-old Simon, but both guys are still fairly young. The toughest question to answer, which will likely determine the outcome, is who will win the wrestling exchanges? That’s always tough to know going in when you have two high-level wrestlers squaring off, but we should have a better idea early on in the fight. Shore is the longer fighter and we like his chances to come out ahead in the striking exchanges, so Simon will be especially reliant on his wrestling. We expect them to be relatively evenly matched in terms of wrestling, so while they’ll each likely find some success in landing takedowns, we’d be surprised to see either guy dominate the other on the mat. In the end, we like Shore’s striking to be the difference maker in the fight. While it’s possible Shore can find a knockout on the feet, we like him to win a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is Shore’s ML at -155.
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DFS Implications:
This might be the most interesting fight on the card in terms of DFS, as both guys have been scoring machines in the past, which will result in them both being very popular. Shore has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his three decision wins (105, 87 & 93) and 106 points in his two finishes (109 & 102). He’s landed at least two takedowns in each of those five wins and bolstered his recent 105 point score with a pair of knockdowns. If Simon and his 72% takedown defense can shut down Shore’s wrestling then Shore will be reliant on landing a knockout to score well. And with that in mind, the last time Shore knocked anybody out was in 2018 in his Cage Warriors days. However, his striking has looked improved and Simon was knocked out by a 40-year-old Urijah Faber back in 2019. Nevertheless, this is the toughest matchup of Shore’s career, and he has a wider range of outcomes compared to normal. The odds imply he has a 58% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Simon is generally a major DFS contributor based on his chain wrestling approach to fighting that results in huge takedown numbers. He’s averaged 102 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, with 98 or more in his last five. We did see him struggle to put up big scores early in his career against other high-level wrestlers in his wins over Merab Dvalishvili (79 pts) and Montel Jackson (89 pts), and now he’ll face another really tough wrestler in Shore who has a solid 84% takedown defense. Simon relies almost entirely on his wrestling to score well, so if Shore’s takedown defense holds up we don’t see Simon scoring well without a finish. That makes him a much more risky play than normal, which is going mostly overlooked by the field. Sure it’s possible we see a back and forth wrestling match with a high number of takedowns and reversals, but it’s also possible we see a grappling stale mate with more time spent on the feet than most people might expect. If that’s how the fight plays out and it ends up going the distance, the winner is unlikely to put up a big score. Overall, there’s a wide range of outcomes in this fight but both fighters have a lower floor compared to normal. Simon’s cheap price tag makes it easier for him to end up in winning lineups, but it also feels like a trap that a large portion of the field will fall into. The odds imply Simon has a 42% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Punahele Soriano
5th UFC Fight (2-2)After starting his career with a perfect 8-0 record, Soriano has now lost two straight decisions. The first of those came in a pure striking battle against Brendan Allen, while the most recent was in a wrestling match against Nick Maximov. Prior to those two losses, Soriano knocked out Oskar Piechota and Dusko Todorovic in the first round of his first two UFC fights.
In Soriano’s last fight, he got taken down by Nick Maximov 11 times on 16 attempts, after Soriano had previously never been taken down in the UFC. That fight played out almost exclusively as a wrestling match, with Soriano doing a good job of remaining off his back and fighting the efforts of Maximov but still technically getting taken down 11 times on relentless chain wrestling from Maximov. In addition to his 11 takedowns, Maximov finished with nearly nine minutes of control time, while Soriano led in significant strikes 45-29 and in total strikes 74-60. Despite Maximov controlling nearly the entire fight, one judge actually ruled it in favor of Soriano and the fight ended in a split-decision.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Soriano has five wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision. All seven of his finishes occurred in round one and all three of his career fights to last longer than five minutes have ended with the judges. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses going the distance.
Overall, Soriano is a violent striker and was also an All-American collegiate wrestler. While he’s gone just 1 for 2 on takedowns in his four UFC fights, he theoretically has his wrestling to fall back on when things get hairy, and he notably landed three takedowns on DWCS back in 2019. However, he has said that he uses his wrestling to keep fights on the feet so he can look for knockouts, which lines up with his fighting style under the UFC. Impressively, Soriano landed four knockdowns in his first two UFC fights, but failed to land a knockdown in either of his recent two losses.
Dalcha Lungiambula
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Also coming off a pair of losses, Lungiambula has now lost three of his last four fights and has to be desperate for a win. His only win over that stretch came against Markus Perez, who’s no longer in the UFC. He’s coming off the only first round loss of his career in a fight he was moments away winning himself.
In Lungiambula’s last fight, Brundage shot for an early takedown, which Dalcha Lungiambula initially tried to defend with an unsuccessful guillotine. After momentarily getting taken down, Lungiambula escaped and began landing punches while sprawling. Brundage continued to look for a takedown, while Lungiambula stuffed him and continued to land heavy punches. Brundage looked to be in trouble as the two separated and Lungiambula began teeing off. It looked like Lungiambula was just a few punches away from getting the fight stopped when he idiotically shot for a takedown instead of finishing things on the feet and Brundage locked in a guillotine to force a tap. Brundage had no business winning the fight and Lungiambula finished ahead 29-4 in significant strikes and 50-4 in total strikes.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Lungiambula has five wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one decision defeat. Lungiambula spent most of his career at 205 lb before moving down to 185 lb in 2021 for his last three fights. Since the move, he’s split a pair of decisions before getting submitted in his last fight. The only KO loss of his career came up at 205 lb against an extremely dangerous Magomed Ankalaev. Lungiambula has only landed one finish since 2017, which was a third round KO win in his debut over Dequan Townsend. Only two of Lungiambula’s last 13 fights have ended in the first round, and five of his last six have made it to round three.
Overall, Lungiambula is clearly powerful, but lacks finesse in his game and tries to decapitate his opponents with every punch. He’s a Judo black belt and won both the Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight titles for the EFC organization back in 2017 and 2018.
Fight Prediction:
Soriano will have a 3” height advantage, but Lungiambula will have a 4” reach advantage. Soriano is also five years younger than the 34-year-old Lungiambula.
Both of these two are powerful punchers who look to take home souvenirs with every punch they throw. They’re also both prone to gassing out, which makes a late round finish less likely. Neither guy has shown much growth in their game, so it will be interesting to see if that changes any here. They each fought earlier this year, so neither guy has had a ton of time to make any significant improvements, and we expect to see more of the same from them. With just one combined KO loss between them, we actually like this fight to go long in a lower-volume game of checkers. Soriano lands more volume of the two, but Lungiambula will mix in takedowns, which Soriano has been reluctant to do. While we like Soriano to finish ahead in a pure striking battle, if Lungiambula can land a couple takedowns it’s possible he could steal a decision. We’ll still say Soriano wins a close decision, but this fight could go a few different ways.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +160.
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DFS Implications:
After averaging 126 DraftKings points in his first two UFC fights, Soriano has now scored just 27 in each of his last two. He’s your quintessential R1 KO or bust fighter, who has never landed a finish beyond the first round and who has given us zero indication he can even come remotely close to scoring well in a decision. He’s always been popular amongst the field, and while his recent pair of decision defeats could deflate his ownership a little, we still expect him to be fairly popular. He now faces an opponent who fought most of his career at 205 lb and who has only been knocked out once as a pro, so this doesn’t look like a great matchup for Soriano to find a finish. With that said, he has the power to knock out anybody he faces so his ceiling is still there even if his chances of hitting it are lower. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Lungiambula was able to score 108 DraftKings points in a R3 KO win in his UFC debut with the help of four takedowns and a ton of control time, but he’s failed to top 65 points in any of his last four fights and now faces a dangerous opponent who’s never been finished. Soriano is also a former college wrestler, so this isn’t a great spot for Lungiambula to find a ton of grappling success, even if Nick Maximov was able to land doub;e digit takedowns on Soriano. Lungiambula scored just 65 DraftKings points in his lone UFC decision win, and even at his cheaper price tag he’ll fail to return value more often than not in fights that go the distance. He only averages 3.30 SSL/min and Soriano averages just 3.56 SSA/min. Lungiambula looks like a KO or bust fighter who tends to slow down later in fights, so overall we’ve not very excited about playing him. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Miesha Tate
12th UFC Fight (6-5)This fight had originally been booked in May, but then got pushed back to July 2nd. However, then Murphy tested positive for COVID and it was pushed back two more weeks. Tate will be moving down to 125 lb for the first time in her career at 35 years old, and has now had to deal with scheduling the weight cut twice in a two week span. On the other side of things, Murphy is just getting over COVID, so there is some uncertainty on both sides.
Tate is coming off a five-round decision loss to Ketlen Vieira and has lost three of her last four fights, although two of those were all the way back in 2016. After retiring for nearly five years following a July 2016 first round submission loss to Amanda Nunes and a November 2016 decision loss to Raquel Pennington, Tate returned in July 2021 to win in a third round TKO over a 44-year-old half retired Marion Reneau. However, after a win in her return she suffered a setback against Vieira and is now moving down a weight class. Tate won the Women’s Bantamweight Belt with a R5 submission victory over Holly Holm back in 2016, but then immediately lost it in the loss to Amanda Nunes.
In Tate’s last fight, Vieira unsurprisingly looked to keep the fight standing against a one-dimensional wrestler in Tate. Vieira’s only takedown attempt in the fight came in the first round and her corner immediately scolded her afterwards and told her to keep the fight standing. She heeded their advice from that point on and won a unanimous decision on the feet, while only allowing Tate to get her down once on six attempts in the fight. Tate actually finished ahead in significant strikes 122-113, but Vieira led in total strikes 156-145 and was clearly the one doing more damage with her strikes if you compared the faces of the two fighters following the match. Vieira was very patient with her striking and only threw four leg kicks in the fight, as she relied entirely on her boxing to win a decision.
Now 19-8 as a pro, Tate has four wins by KO, seven by submission, and eight decisions. She’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has three decision defeats. Eleven of her last 12 fights have made it to the third round, with six going the distance. So we have seen five of her last 11 fights end in late finishes (3-2). Tate started her career at 145 lb, before quickly dropping down to 135 lb, and she’ll now be moving all the way down to 125 lb for the first time as we mentioned.
Overall, Tate is a one-dimensional wrestler, and averages just 2.41 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing just 2.87 per minute. She lands an average of 2.0 takedowns per 15 minutes on 6.4 attempts and has never landed more than three in a fight.
Lauren Murphy
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Coming off a terrible performance in the first and only title shot she’ll ever see, Murphy got abused by Valentina Shevchenko and finished in the fourth round. Prior to that, she had won five in a row, but two of those were in split decisions that easily could have gone the other way. Her other wins have come against a short notice replacement making her UFC debut and a series of low-level and aging fighters, so we’ve yet to see any sort of signature win from Murphy.
In that recent loss, Murphy looked like they had just locked her in the cage with a grizzly bear. She landed significant striking totals of 3, 1, 5, and 2 in the four rounds the fight lasted before Shevchenko finished her late in round four with elbows and ground and pound on the mat. Shevchenko had somewhat of a patient gameplan herself, finishing ahead 98-11 in significant strikes and 132-19 in total strikes, with much of that coming in the finishing sequence in round four. She also landed three of her four takedown attempts with just over four minutes of control time as she completely controlled the fight from start to finish.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Murphy has eight wins by KO, one by submission, and six decision victories. The only person to ever finish her was Valentina Shevchenko, with her other four losses all coming by decision. Five of her eight KO wins came in her first five pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 1-1, 0-1, 2-0, 1-2, and 2-2. Four of those five women never fought again and the first four of those fights notably took place on the Alaskan scene. Her last 15 fights have all seen the second round, with 14 making it to round three, and 10 going the distance.
Overall, Murphy is an overrated aging fighter, who has lived up to nickname throughout her career with every close call going her way. She typically relies on her strength to win fights and isn’t really exceptional at anything. She averages a pedestrian 3.58 SSL/min, while absorbing an average of 4.35/min. She adds 1.0 takedown landed per 15 minutes, and has never landed more than two in a fight. She has to know she just completely blew the only title shot she’ll ever see, so it will be interesting to see where she’s at mentally for this fight.
Fight Prediction:
Tate will have a 1” height advantage, but Murphy will have a 2” reach advantage. Tate is three years younger than the 38-year-old Murphy.
It’s always tough when the UFC pairs up two fighters who we want to fade, but someone’s gotta win. With Tate moving down to 125 lb for the first time and Murphy fresh off COVID, this is a higher variance spot with the potential for either or both of them to look terrible. Both of those variables could have an effect on the late round cardio of these fighters, but that’s not a certainty. Tate relies on landing takedowns to win fights, and Murphy has sort of an average 65% takedown defense, but hadn’t been taken down in four fights leading up to her recent loss to Shevchenko. Murphy is notably 0-4 in UFC fights where she’s been taken down more than once, which bodes well for Tate’s chances here to grind out a decision win. With that said, we have legitimate concerns about her moving down a weight class so late in her career, which has us leaning Murphy in this matchup. If the weight cut really plays a major factor, we could see Murphy land a knockout, but this is still far more likely to go the distance. However, if the weight cut goes smoothly, we expect Tate to win a grappling-heavy decision. It will be essential to monitor weigh-ins on this one.
Our favorite bet here is Murphy’s ML at +180.
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DFS Implications:
The only time Tate has scored more than 95 DraftKings points in her career was in her third round finish of a half-retired 44-year-old Marion Reneau, where Tate scored 106 points. She only averages 2.41 SSL/min and has also never landed more than three takedowns in a fight, with just a 31% takedown accuracy. Tate will be moving down to 125 lb for the first time in her career, which adds a lot of uncertainty and increases her range of outcomes, but she’ll still have a tough time returning value at her high price tag without a completely dominant wrestling performance or a well timed finish. The odds imply she has a 64% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Lauren Murphy has never been someone we’re ever looking to play in DFS. Fourteen of her last 15 fights have made it to the third round, with 10 of those going the distance. The one exception was a R2 submission win against an opponent making her short notice UFC debut. Even in that R2 finish, Murphy still scored just 88 DraftKings points, and she generally lacks the volume to really score well without a first round finish. She only averages one takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and has notably never landed more than two in a fight. She’s only scored above 88 DraftKings points once, with totals of 84, 88, 74, 87, 71, 73 and 118 in her seven UFC wins. That 118 point performance came in a complete outlier performance against a non-UFC level talent, who was making her debut in just her fourth pro fight, and finished her UFC career with an 0-2 record. Murphy’s next finish scored just 71 DraftKings points. The only two things Murphy has going for her is the uncertainty surrounding Tate’s move down to 125 lb and her cheap price tag. The odds imply she has a 36% chance to win, an 11% chance to get a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #5
Shane Burgos
11th UFC Fight (7-3)After losing two fights in a row to Josh Emmett and Edson Barboza, Burgos bounced back with a super high-volume decision win over Billy Quarantillo in his last fight. That recent win took place at Madison Square Garden and Burgos is now 6-0 in the UFC when fighting in New York, with three decisions and three finishes, but just 1-3 outside of his home state. Born in the Bronx and a lifetime New Yorker who trains out of NY based Tiger Schulmann, he’ll now make his 7th UFC appearance in New York on this upcoming card.
Here are all of Burgos’ UFC fights broken down by Location:
Madison Square Garden, New York - 2021 DEC Win vs. Billy Quarantillo
Toyota Center, Houston - 2021 R3 KO LOSS vs. Edson Barboza
Apex, Las Vegas - 2020 DEC LOSS vs. Josh Emmett
Madison Square Garden, New York - 2019 R3 KO Win vs. Makwan Amirkhani
Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa - 2019 DEC Win vs. Cub Swanson
Madison Square Garden, New York - 2018 R1 SUB Win vs. Kurt Holobaugh
TD Garden, Boston - 2018 R3 KO LOSS vs. Calvin Kattar
Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale (Long Island), New York - 2017 R3 DEC Win vs. Godofredo Castro
Keybank Center, Buffalo, New York - 2017 R3 KO vs. Charles Rosa
Times Union Center, Albany, New York - 2016 DEC vs. Tiago dos Santos e Silva
In his last fight, Burgos did a great job of chewing up the lead leg of Billy Quarantillo, landing 28 leg strikes overall. That left Quarantillo extremely compromised late in the fight, and after trailing in strikes in round one, Burgos pulled away in the later rounds to finish ahead 193-164 in significant strikes and 232-196 in total strikes. Burgos was also able to stuff all 14 of Quarantillo’s takedown attempts. That was Burgos’ first win since 2019.
Now 14-3 as a pro, Burgos has five wins by KO, five more by submission, and four decisions. Those numbers are a little misleading, as four of his five submission wins occurred in his first five pro fights from 2013 to 2014. He’s been knocked out in the third round in two of his three losses, with his only other loss coming in a 2020 decision to Josh Emmett. After turning pro in 2013, Burgos landed seven straight finishes in the first two rounds leading up to his 2016 UFC debut, where he both saw the third round and the judges for the first time. Now 10 fights into his UFC career, nine of those matches have made it to the third round, with five going the distance. Four of his five UFC fights to end early resulted from third round KOs (2-2), while he also has a first round armbar win in 2018. He’s never been to two decisions in a row in his career, and all four of his previous decisions have been followed up by third round knockouts (2-2).
Overall, Burgos is an incredibly tough brawler, who can be too tough for his own good at times, as it appeared his central nervous system essentially shut down in the third round of his fight against Barboza. Burgos has averaged 7.95 SSL/min and 6.69 SSA/min in his career, both of which lead the slate, and those numbers have actually risen to 9.04 SSL/min and 7.63 SSA/min in his last five fights. His fights tend to be wars of attrition, where we often see someone’s body shutdown in the third round. He does a great job of attacking all three levels, seamlessly mixing in leg strikes and violent body shots, and has a rock-solid 91% takedown defense. Burgos has impressively only been taken down 6 times on 70 attempts in his 10 UFC fights. On the other side of things he hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his last seven fights, after landing his only two attempts with the organization in his first three UFC matches.
Charles Jourdain
9th UFC Fight (4-3-1)Coming off consecutive wins for the first time since joining the UFC, Jourdain landed a first round submission over Lando Vannata back in April. Prior to that, Jourdain had been scheduled in a short notice kamikaze deathmatch against Ilia Topuria in January, but Topuria withdrew after a botched weight cut and Jourdain escaped unscathed. His second most recent fight ended in a decision win over Andre Ewell, who was moving up a weight class. Jourdain’s last loss was a crazy back and forth brawl against Julian Erosa where both guys had their moments, but ultimately Erosa sealed the victory with a third round submission.
In that recent win, Jourdain got taken down in the opening 30 seconds, but was able to return to his feet after not long with no damage taken. Jourdain sat Vannata down midway through the round and then began fishing for a guillotine. Jourdain was able to lock it in with just one arm and then reinforced it with his second hand right at the end to immediately force a tap. We didn’t see much striking in the quick fight that only lasted half a round, but Vannata finished ahead 8-4 in significant strikes.
Now 13-4-1 as a pro, Jourdain has eight wins by KO, four by submission, and one decision. Only four of his 12 career finishes have come in the first round and he’s generally a guy that puts people away later in fights. He has four second round wins, three in round three, and one in round five. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted once and has three decision losses. Prior to his recent R1 submission win, Jourdain had seen the second round in eight straight fights, with seven of those making it to round three, and four going the distance. The only time other than his last fight that he hasn’t seen a third round was in a second round TKO win in his second UFC fight back in 2019. After that he made it to the third round in five straight fights.
Overall, Jourdain is a really solid kickboxer and has been extremely durable. Despite being a BJJ black belt, he’s never landed a takedown in the UFC and generally struggles off his back. He will look for opportunistic submissions, however, as we saw in his last fight and his last two submission wins have both come by guillotine. With just a 46% career takedown defense, he’s been taken down at least once in each of his last four fights, and 14 times in his eight UFC matches. His defensive wrestling remains his biggest vulnerability, although now he’ll square off against another brawler and we’re less concerned about his defensive grappling here.
Fight Prediction:
Burgos will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while Jourdain is five years younger than the 31-year-old Burgos.
This sets up as one of the most exciting fights on the card, as both of these two are exciting strikers who have also shown the ability to finish fights with submissions. With that said, Burgos hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his last seven fights and Jourdain has never landed a takedown in the UFC. So we expect this to play out as an uptempo striking battle with Burgos averaging 7.95 SSL/min (Most on the slate) and 6.69 SSA/min (Most on the slate) in his UFC career and Jourdain averaging 5.60 SSL/min (3rd most on the slate) and 4.53 SSA/min (4th most on the slate). Look for these two to stand and trade until one of their brains shuts off or the final horn sounds. They’re both extremely durable, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see it go the distance. Burgos has already absorbed a ton of damage in his career, which has caught up with him at times, as he’s been finished in the third round twice in his career. Jourdain is five years younger and has a lot more tread left on the tires, but he’ll also be the smaller fighter in this matchup. So you can make a case for either fighter to finish the other, most likely late in the fight through an accumulation of shots, but we like this to end in a close high-volume decision. Burgos is notably 6-0 when fighting in New York, where this slate will take place, and always seems to do his best work in front of his home crowd. When you combine that with the fact that Jourdain is just 1-3 in decisions in his career, it makes sense for Burgos to get his hand raised if this goes the distance. While Jourdain has a chance to accrue enough damage to finish Burgos in the third round, we’ll say Burgos wins this one in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “ Burgos/Jourdain Fight to Start Round Three, Yes” at -165.
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DFS Implications:
Burgos is coming off a career best 193 significant strikes landed where he also set his high water mark in DraftKings scoring at 119 points. He’s a high-volume brawler who averages both the most significant strikes landed on the slate at 7.95/min and the most absorbed at 6.69/min. That gives him a reliable floor and a high ceiling even in decisions. In his four UFC decision wins, he’s put up DraftKings scores of 119, 86, 116, and 80. In his three UFC finishes, two of which occurred in the third round, he’s scored 115, 97, and 90 points, showing that regardless of how he wins, he has a high floor but it’s a crapshoot as to whether or not he breaks 100. Burgos has notably never lost a UFC fight in New York, where he holds a perfect 6-0 record, while going just 1-3 out of the state. This fight will take place in Long Island, NY, which bodes well for Burgos’ chances if history is any indicator. We expect this to be a high-volume brawl and it’s a step up in competition for Jourdain, so Burgos should once again have a solid scoring floor and his usual volume-driven ceiling. Working against him, Jourdain has never been knocked out so Burgos will likely need to put up another massive striking total to return value at his high price tag. It wouldn’t be that surprising to see a barnburner fight with Burgos still getting priced out of tournament winning lineups, but he’s also proven he can put up huge scores even in decisions. His fighting style is better suited to the FanDuel scoring system compared to DraftKings, but he has a solid floor/ceiling combination on both sites. The odds imply he has a 60% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Jourdain has scored 92 or more DraftKings points in all four of his UFC wins and now he steps into the perfect matchup to put up a huge striking total against Burgos, who averages the most significant strikes absorbed on the slate at 6.69/min. At his cheap price tag it’s hard to see Jourdain getting left out of winning lineups if he can pull off the upset, but it won’t come easy as Burgos is 6-0 when fighting in his home state of NewYork and represents a step up in competition for Jourdain. We have seen Burgos get slowly dismantled in a pair of third round KO losses in his career and Jourdain specializes in late round knockouts. So there’s lots to like about this matchup for Jourdain, just realize it will be the toughest opponent he’s faced in his career and he’ll be stepping into enemy territory no less. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #4
Sumudaerji
5th UFC Fight (0-0)Sumudaerji had his last two fights canceled and it’s now been 18 months since he last fought. He had been scheduled to face Tim Elliot in June 2021, but suffered a knee injury that required and was forced to withdraw. Then he was set to face Manel Kape in April 2022, but Kape pissed hot and was pulled from the card. This will be the first time we’ve seen Sumudaerji since returning from knee surgery.
Sumudaerji is on a three fight winning streak since getting submitted in his UFC debut, with two of his last three wins going the distance. His most recent win played out as a low-volume kickboxing match, with Sumudaerji outlanding Zarrukh Adashev 50-28 in total strikes on his way to a decision win. Sumudaerji was mostly content with using his huge reach advantage to pick Adashev apart from distance, while Adashev was constantly swinging wild looping power shots that rarely landed. Prior to that slower paced decision victory, Sumudaerji landed the quickest win of his career in a 44 second R1 KO against Malcolm Gordon. That quick finish came 15 months after Sumudaerji won a lopsided decision against Andre Soukhamthath to notch his first UFC victory after Louis Smolka submitted him the second round of his 2018 UFC debut.
Now 3-1 in the UFC and 16-4 as a pro. His first 17 pro fights all ended early, while two of his last three have gone the distance. Of his 16 wins, 13 have ended in knockouts, one by submission, and two in decisions. All four of his career losses have come by submission, with the last three of those ending in round two and the other coming in round one. Ten of his 13 knockouts have come in the first round with the other three ending in round two. The only time he’s ever finished an opponent beyond round two was in his lone career submission victory, which ended early in round three of a 2016 match. He’s 3-0 in fights that have lasted longer than 10 minutes.
Very light on his feet, Sumudaerji is a quick striker who throws lots of side and spinning kicks. He uses his length well to come in and out of range, making it tougher on his opponents to land strikes on him. He fought his first two UFC fights at 135 lb, but then moved down to 125 lb for his last two, and that’s where it appears he’ll stay.
Matt Schnell
11th UFC Fight (5-4, NC)Schnell is coming off back-to-back losses, although the first of those, a 2021 decision loss to Rogerio Bontorin, was later overturned to a No Contest because Bontorin tested positive for a banned diuretic. His most recent defeat came in a first round submission against Brandon Royval. His only win in his last four fights came in a January 2021 split decision against Tyson Nam, where Schnell was content with circling away from contact the whole fight and counter striking.
In his recent loss to Royval, Schnell came in with a heavy heart after his mother had just passed away. Unlike his previous two fights, Schnell came out of the gates hot as he turned the page back to his early UFC days when he would go for broke in the opening minutes of fights. We had seen a much more measured approach from him in his other two most recent fights, where he went on the other end of the spectrum and completely refused to engage with his opponents. So overall you never know what you’ll get from Schnell. Anyways, in his recent loss, we saw a frantic start to the fight with the two trading on the feet and Schnell dropped Royval just over a minute in. Royval looked for submissions off his back as he recovered. That forced Schnell to focus on defending submissions opposed to landing ground and pound, but as the two rolled around on the mat, Schnell found himself on his back. As he tried to return to his feet, Royval wrapped up a guillotine and quickly forced a tap just 134 seconds into the fight. The fight ended with Royval ahead 14-12 in significant strikes and Schnell leading 15-14 in total strikes. No takedowns were attempted, but Schnell had the one knockdown.
Now 15-6 as a pro, Schnell has two wins by KO, eight by submission, four decisions, and one DQ win. He’s been knocked out three times in the first round and submitted twice. He also has one decision defeat. Schnell has gone 1-2 at 135 lb in the UFC, with a 2016 R1 KO loss to Rob Font in Schnell’s UFC debut, a decision loss to Rogerio Bontorin (later overturned to a No Contest), and a 2019 R1 submission win over Louis Smolka. He’s more often competed at 125 lb, where he’s gone 4-3 in the UFC with three decision wins, one R1 submission win, two R1 KO losses, and the recent R1 submission loss. Schnell’s last 11 fights have notably all ended in either the first round or gone to a decision.
Overall, Schnell is a bipolar fighter who either comes into fights like a rabid dog or a shy cat depending on the mood he’s in. When he fights with emotion he puts on exciting performances that generally end in the first round, but typically don’t go his way, as he’s 2-4 in UFC fights that end in R1. When he fights smarter, he puts on boring snoozers, but generally gets his hand raised in close decisions, as he’s gone 3-1 with the judges in the UFC with two of those being split. While it’s tough to know what his approach will be in any given fight, you can generally expect either a fast paced banger that ends in the opening round or a slow-paced snoozer that ends in a close decision. Schnell is a black belt in karate and a BJJ purple belt. While he has eight submission wins on his record, they’re all defensive submissions if you look closer. He has three wins by armbar, two by guillotine, and three triangle chokes. He’s only landed two takedowns on six attempts in his 10 UFC fights and has failed to land a takedown on just one attempt in his last five matches.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8” but Sumudaerji will have a 2” reach advantage.
While on paper it seems like a no brainer that Schnell would be looking to land the ninth submission of his career against an opponent in Sumudaerji who’s been submitted in all four of his career losses, the problem is that Schnell is primarily just a defensive submission threat and not an actual wrestler. So sure he could theoretically submit Sumudaerji if the fight ends up on the ground, but how’s it going to get there? Schnell has landed just two takedowns on six attempts in the UFC and has landed zero on just one attempt in his last five fights. Sumudaerji landed the only takedown he’s ever attempted, but he’s certainly not going to be looking to take Schnell to the mat, so it would likely require a knockdown to get this fight to the ground and each of these two have only landed one knockdown in their UFC careers. After reverting back to his aggressive form in his last fight and paying for it with a first round submission loss, we expect Schnell to get back to his cautious approach to fighting that we saw from him in his two previous matches. He talked about how he needs 15 focussed minutes out of himself in his media day interview, which seems somewhat telling of what his approach will be. So while Sumudaerji is fully capable of knocking Schnell out and Schnell could absolutely lock up a submission if the fight somehow ends up on the mat, we expect to see a more methodical striking battle with Sumudaerji outlanding his way to decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Sumudaerji Decision” at +300.
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DFS Implications:
Sumudaerji is coming off knee surgery and an 18 month layoff, which adds some uncertainty into how he’ll look, but prior to his knee injury he looked sharp on the feet, with his only vulnerability being his grappling. He’s a one-dimensional striker with all four of his career losses ending in submissions, so it will be essential for him to keep this fight standing. Averaging 4.49 SSL/min, he doesn’t land enough striking volume to score well without a knockout, and his path to ending up in winning lineups could not be any more clear. Sumudaerji scored just 50 and 81 DraftKings points in his two decision wins and now checks in as the third most expensive fighter on the slate. Schnell has been knocked out in the first round three times in his career, so this looks like a good spot on paper for Sumudaerji to land another knockout, but if the more cautious version of Schnell shows up on Saturday it will be much tougher for Sumudaerji to land a finish. The odds imply he has a 69% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Schnell has averaged just 57 DraftKings points in his three UFC decision wins, and even at his cheap price tag he likely needs a finish to be useful. While this looks like a good spot on paper for Schnell to land a submission, considering eight of his 15 career wins have come by submission as have all four of Sumudaerji’s losses, Schnell is primarily just a defensive submission threat and not much of a wrestler to actually get fights to the mat. He’s landed two takedowns on six attempts in 10 UFC fights and zero on just one attempt in his last five matches. Considering this fight was booked just six weeks out and Schnell fought just over two months ago, it’s not like he’s had time to learn how to wrestle all of a sudden and Sumudaerji also has a 77% takedown defense. So while Schnell is still live to land a submission if the fight does somehow end up on the mat, the chances of it actually getting there are much lower than most people likely realize. Schnell is a black belt, but it’s in karate and not BJJ, so look for him to ease back into his cautious counter striking approach that we saw from him in his two decisions prior to his recent submission loss, that was emotionally driven by the recent death of his mother. From a DFS perspective, you’ll need Schnell to land a finish to be useful, but the chances of it happening appear unlikely. The odds imply Schnell has a 31% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Muslim Salikhov
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Entering this matchup on a five fight winning streak since getting submitted in the second round of his 2017 UFC debut, Salikhov has impressively won 16 of his last 17 fights. His first two UFC wins both came by KO, but his last three have all gone the distance.
In his last fight, Salikhov took on Francisco Trinaldo, who was moving up form 155 lb to 170 lb for the first time in his lengthy career. Salikhov landed a knockdown late in round one, but Trinaldo was able to survive as he typically does. The fight ended in a hard-hitting low-volume decision with Salikhov leading in significant strikes 62-39 and 71-51 in total strikes. He also landed two takedowns on three attempts, while Trinaldo missed on his only attempt.
Now 18-2 as a pro, Salikhov has 12 wins by KO, two by submission, and four decisions. Both of his career losses came by submission, one in his 2017 UFC debut and the other in his third pro fight back in 2012. Thirteen of his 14 finishes have occurred in the first round, with the other ending in round two.
Overall, Salikhov’s most dangerous weapon is his lightning fast spinning kick. He doesn’t throw much volume, averaging just 3.13 SSL/min, but when he does land he makes it count. He’s never landed more than 63 significant strikes in a UFC fight and hasn’t absorbed more than 46 in a fight. He doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling, with just five takedowns in six UFC fights, but those all notably occurred in his last three outings.
Li Jingliang
16th UFC Fight (10-5)Looking to bounce back from a first round submission loss to Khamzat Chimaev, Jingliang has now lost two of his last three fights, with both of those defeats coming on the mat. The most recent ended in a finish, while the other was in a grappling heavy decision against Neil Magny.
In his last fight, Jingliang walked into a buzzsaw as he squared off against an undefeated Khamzat Chimaev, who immediately shot for a takedown and carried Jingliang around the Octagon like he was burping a baby while carrying on a conversation with Dana White who was sitting ringside. After finally deciding it was time to put him to sleep, Chimaev laid Jingliang down and eventually choked him unconscious midway through the first round. Jingliang was shut out on the stat sheet, failing to land the only strike he threw.
Now 18-7 as a pro, Jingliang has nine wins by KO, four by submission, and five decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice and has five decision defeats. He’s never lost two fights in a row and has followed up four of his previous six losses with first round knockout wins. His last three wins have all ended in knockouts and he’s only been to one decision since 2018. While his last two fights both ended in the first round, he had seen the third round in five straight matches prior to that.
Overall, Jingliang is a solid striker and despite struggling on the mat at times he’s also a BJJ black belt. However, he’s lost his last three fights when he’s been taken down. And while he has four submission wins on his record, three of those came in his first six pro fights and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2013. He’s landed seven knockouts in the UFC to go along with three decision wins. Jingliang is a durable power puncher who throws big looping shots and is always dangerous until the end.
Fight Prediction:
Jingliang will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is four years younger than the 38-year-old Salikhov.
These two have a lot of similarities as the majority of their wins have come by KO, neither guy has ever been knocked out, and they’ve each been submitted twice. However, their fight styles are very different as Salikhov throws a lot more kicks, while Jingliang relies more on his boxing. Jingliang throws more volume and pressures his opponents, while Salikhov is a more patient striker. Both guys are extremely dangerous, but they’ve each also been so durable that there’s still a good chance this goes the distance. Salikhov is getting up there in age and eventually he’s bound to get finished, but picking that spot is a challenge. Jingliang is certainly capable of getting the job done, but Salikhov has a knack for squeaking out close decisions, and we’ll say he wins a close, potentially split decision.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -108.
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DFS Implications:
Salikhov’s low-volume striking, general lack of grappling and high DFS price tag make him a R1 KO or bust DFS play, and he’s failed to top 91 DraftKings points in four of his five UFC wins. That 91 point score came in a 2018 second round KO win, supporting the idea that he needs a first round finish to be useful. He has averaged just 66 DraftKings points in his three decision wins, failing to top 80 points in any of those. Making things tougher on him, Jingliang has never been knocked out or even lost two fights in a row, and is now coming off a defeat. The odds imply Salikhov has a 59% chance to win, a 26% chance to get a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Jingliang has landed knockouts in seven of his 10 UFC victories, so he typically scores well when he wins, although he’s only averaged 74 points in his three decision wins. So even at his cheaper price tag he likely needs a finish to be useful. While Salikhov has never been knocked out, he is 38 years old and eventually he has to start slowing down. He’s also been submitted twice, and Jingliang is a BJJ black belt with four submission wins on his record, although he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2013. While this is a tough matchup for Jingliang to get the finish he needs to score well, he’s bounced back from four of his previous six career losses with first round knockout victories, so the upside is at least there. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it happens in round one.
Fight #2
Amanda Lemos
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Looking to bounce back from her first career loss at 115 lb, Lemos was submitted for the first time in her career by Jessica Andrade with a standing arm-triangle choke. Prior to that, Lemos had won five straight fights after losing her 2017 UFC debut all the way up at 135 lb. Her last win came in a close split decision over Angela Hill that a lot of people scored for Hill, although Lemos was close to landing her third straight first round knockout in that fight as she landed a kick up the middle early in the match. Lemos landed a pair of first round knockouts against Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza leading up to the win over Hill, and also has a first round submission win in the UFC as well as one other decision victory.
In her last fight, Lemos started well, methodically picking Andrade apart with kicks and evading the offerings coming back her way. However, midway through the round Andrade locked up a standing arm-triangle choke and Lemos was unable to escape. The fight ended with Lemos ahead 7-3 in striking, but the momentary slip up was all it took for Andrade to find her opening and secure the victory.
Now 11-2-1 as a pro, Lemos has seven wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. Eight of her nine finishes have come in the first round, with the one exception being a 2016 early third round KO. Both of her losses have come early, with a 2017 second round TKO in her UFC debut and the recent R1 submission loss at 115 lb. Since moving down to 115 lb, four of her six fights have ended in the first round (3-1), with the other two going the distance (2-0). After taking the fight on short notice, Lemos gassed out hard in her UFC debut before getting finished by a brawler in Leslie Smith up at 135 lb. A few months after the loss, Lemos was hit with a lengthy suspension after she tested positive for steroids and ended up taking 29 months off before returning to the Octagon. During her time away, she dropped two weight classes at once to move all the way down to 115 lb when she returned from her suspension in 2019. After looking undersized at 135 lb, she looked great at 115 lb as she announced her return with a first round submission win over Miranda Granger.
Overall, Lemos is unquestionably the most dangerous in round one, but she did still look somewhat dangerous in the third round against Hill. While she’s primarily a striker, she will look to lock up submissions on the mat, although she’s not an overwhelming submission threat. Now 35 years old, Lemos got a late start in MMA as she didn’t turn pro until 2014 when she was already 27 years old. That should mean she has more tread left on the tires than your typical 35-year-old fighter. She’s a powerful but patient striker who relies more on landing big shots than a ton of volume, but once she gets an opponent hurt she’ll unload to try and finish fights. She’s landed five knockdowns in her last four wins, with at least one in each of those.
Michelle Waterson
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Fourteen months removed from a five-round decision loss to Marina Rodriguez, Waterson has now lost three of her last four and probably should be on a four fight skid except she won a questionable split decision over Angela Hill in September 2020. Three of her last four matches have gone five-rounds, so cardio isn’t a concern for her. Waterson had been scheduled to face Amanada Ribas back in March, but ended up withdrawing due to injury.
In her last fight, Waterson took on a dangerous Muay Thai striker in Marina Rodriguez. The five-round fight was finalized on short notice so it took place at 125 lb, opposed to 115 lb where they both normally compete. Rodriguez was able to control the fight as she outlanded Waterson 125-88 in significant strikes and 144-100 in total strikes, while stuffing four of Waterson’s five takedown attempts on her way to winning a unanimous decision.
Now 18-9 as a pro, Waterson has three wins by KO, nine by submission, and six decisions. She’s been knocked out once (2009), has three submission losses, and five decision defeats. Two of her three submission losses have come by guillotine. She’s fought to eight straight decisions (4-4), after she had six straight fights end early from 2013 to 2017 (4-2). Waterson hasn’t finished an opponent since she submitted a terrible Paige VanZant in 2016 in Waterson’s second UFC fight. Her only other UFC finish came in her UFC debut against another terrible opponent in Angela Magana, who went 0-3 in the UFC and has since retired after losing six straight fights. Waterson is a black belt in karate and a BJJ brown belt and the former Invicta Atomweight champion. She started her career fighting at Strawweight and Flyweight, but dropped down to Atomweight in 2012, before moving back up to Strawweight when she joined the UFC in 2015. One final note, three of her last seven decisions have been split (2-1).
Overall, Waterson throws lots of kicks to try and keep her opponents at bay, but has still absorbed 5.81 SS/min in her last three losses. While she attempts a decent number of takedowns, she’s never landed more than three in a fight and only has a 32% career takedown accuracy. She’s landed just three takedowns on 32 attempts in her last four fights. While Waterson is a pretty well-rounded fighter, she’s not overly impressive anywhere, and her limitations are evident every time she faces a step up in competition. While she’s faced several tough opponents in her career, she’s basically lost every one of those fights and has only notched wins against lower and mid level competition. Looking back at her record, Rose Namajunas (Loss), Tecia Torres (Loss), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (Loss), Carla Esparza (Loss), Marina Rodriguez (Loss). Then you look at her UFC wins, Angela Magana (0-3 in the UFC & Cut), Paige VanZant (Lost 3 of last 4 in the UFC & Cut), Cortney Casey (6-9 in the UFC), Felice Herrig (Has lost four straight & Cut), Karolina Kowalkiewicz (1-5 in her last six), and Angela Hill (1-5 in her last six). Not too good.
Fight Prediction:
Lemos will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Waterson has been a career gatekeeper who loses literally every single time she faces good competition and is now 36 years old, coming off an injury, and hasn’t fought in 14 months. Waterson’s best attribute has arguably been her durability, and her only career KO/TKO loss was all the way back in 2009. She has been submitted three times though, which is how she was finished in her only UFC early loss. Waterson will also spam takedowns at times, but has really struggled with her accuracy lately, landing just three of her last 32 attempts (9%). Now she’ll face the elite 88% takedown defense of Lemos, so Waterson will have a tough time finding grappling success. That will leave her reliant on outlasting Lemos in a striking battle, with the hopes of handing Lemos the first decision loss of her career. While we do give the cardio advantage to Waterson, Lemos is on a different planet in terms of power and we expect her to be the one inflicting all the damage in this matchup. Waterson’s one hope will be to land her side kicks up the middle to try and keep Lemos at bay. The larger Octagon on this slate should benefit Waterson, as it will give her more room to evade and likely lowers the chances of a Lemos cornering her and finishing her with strikes. Lemos does like to look for guillotine chokes, and if Waterson continues to shoot for a high number of takedowns she runs the risk of getting submitted. The submission prop is far too wide in this fight as Lemos’ power should force Waterson to shoot for takedowns, and we’ve seen Waterson get submitted three times in the past, twice by guillotine. Lemos is also fully capable of knocking Waterson out as she’s the most powerful striker that Waterson has ever faced in her career. While the odds indicate that the most likely result here is for the fight to go the distance, we always like Lemos’ chances of landing a first round finish, and this matchup is no different. However, even if it does go the distance and Lemos slows down late as she often does, we believe she’ll do enough early on to get her hand raised. And despite what the odds say, we like Lemos to hurt Waterson on the feet early in the fight, force her to shoot for a desperation takedown, and lock in a guillotine choke for yet another first round win.
Our favorite bet here is “Lemos R1” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
Lemos has scored at least 91 DraftKings points in four of her five UFC wins, with three scores of 104 or more, and two of at least 124. She hits like a truck, which is rare for the 115 lb division, and is also an opportunistic submission threat. This will be a step down in competition for Lemos, after she was recently submitted in the first round by Jessica Andrade, and it looks like a good bounce back spot. While Waterson has been pretty durable and has fought to eight straight decisions, she has been finished four times in her career. Nine of Lemos’ 11 career wins have come early, including eight in the first round. She doesn’t land enough volume or takedowns to return value at her high price tag in a decision, so you’ll likely be relying on Lemos to land another first round finish to be useful here. Despite all of her first round finishes, the field consistently overlooks Lemos to a large extent, and in her last few three-round fights we’ve seen her come in at just 24%, 23%, and 10% ownership. That means she’s always a great tournament play. The odds imply she has a 74% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Waterson has fought to three five-round decisions in her last four fights, which inflates her recent numbers when it comes to three-round scoring potential. With that said, she still struggled to score well outside of a five-round split decision win over Angela Hill, where Waterson put up 100 DraftKings points. Waterson has fought to eight straight decisions after her first three UFC fights all ended in submissions (2-1). She averaged 78 DraftKings points in her three three-round decision victories, and has relied on finishes in three-round fights to score well. She’s never shown the ability to defeat tougher opponents, which further limits her scoring potential in this matchup. While Waterson will shoot for a solid number of takedowns, she’s only landed three of her last 32 attempts (9%) and reality struggles with her accuracy. Now she’ll face the elite 88% takedown defense of Lemos, so it’s hard to have much faith in Waterson scoring well through grappling. Her only two finishes in the UFC came against terrible opponents in Angela Magana and Paige VanZant in 2015 and 2016 respectively, and it would be shocking to see Waterson land a finish here. That leaves her reliant on squeaking out a decision and hoping most of the other dogs fail, allowing her to serve as a value play. The odds imply she has a 34% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 4% chance to end it in R1.
Fight #1
Brian Ortega
11th UFC Fight (7-2, NC)Ortega went undefeated in his first 15 pro fights, including his first seven in the UFC, however a first round win in his UFC debut was overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for steroids and fully admitted to taking them. However, he’s now lost two of his last three, admittedly to the best two Featherweights in the world in Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Holloway outlanded Ortega 290-110 in significant strikes and landed his only takedown attempt while stuffing 9 of Ortega’s 11 attempts, as he handed Ortega the first loss of his career. Following the loss, Ortega switched camps but didn’t fight again for 22 months after suffering a partially torn ACL during training in November of 2019. His only win since that 2018 defeat came in a dominant five-round decision against The Korean Zombie in October 2020. That earned him a title shot against Volkanovski in September 2021.
In that last fight, Volkanovski dominated the striking and finished ahead 214-88 in significant strikes and 229-101 in total strikes. Ortega was able to land two of his five takedowns, but finished with just 54 seconds of control time, although he did have three official submission attempts and was incredibly close to finishing Volkanovski with a mounted guillotine and also briefly locked in a triangle choke. Volkanovski finished with two reversals and nearly four minutes of control time and nearly got Ortega out of there in the third and fourth rounds after escaping the submission attempts. While Ortega faded in the back half of the fight, specifically in the fourth round, Volkanovski appeared to get stronger as the fight went on.
Now 15-2 as a pro, Ortega has three wins by KO, seven by submission, and five decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 2018 post R4 doctor stoppage against Max Holloway, although he was dangerously close to having the fight stopped in his last match as well, but that ultimately ended in his lone career decision loss. Ortega’s first eight UFC fights (including the No Contest) all ended early, but now he’s fought to a pair of five-round decisions. Prior to losing to Holloway, Ortega knocked out Frankie Edgar in the first round. He also landed a first round submission in his 2014 UFC debut, which was then overturned to a No Contest, but his other eight UFC fights have all seen the second round, with seven making it to at least round three. His last three matches have all gone to the championship rounds, with his last two going the full 25 minutes.
Overall, Ortega is a BJJ black belt and always a dangerous submission threat, and mostly looks to lock in guillotines and triangle chokes. He’s also improved his striking in recent years and after averaging 3.65 SSL/min in his first seven UFC fights, he’s averaged 4.64 in his last three, despite losing two of those three fights. After only landing one takedown on seven attempts in his first seven UFC fights (14% accuracy), he landed 7 on 26 attempts in his last three fights (27% accuracy). He landed at least two takedowns on five or more attempts in each of his last three fights.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Ortega’s career and 5th in the UFC. His last fight before joining the organization ended in a 2014 five-round split decision win for the vacant RFA Featherweight belt. In 2017 he stepped into his first UFC five-round fight and submitted Cub Swanson in the second round with a guillotine choke. Two fights later he took on Max Holloway in another five-round fight and lost in a post R4 TKO by doctor stoppage. After taking nearly two years off, he bounced back with a five-round decision win over The Korean Zombie, before losing a five-round decision to Volkanovski in his last fight. So overall, Ortega is 2-2 in UFC five-round fights and 3-2 in his career. Three of those five have gone the distance (2-1), with another ending just before the final round started.
Yair Rodriguez
12th UFC Fight (8-2, NC)Looking to bounce back from a five-round decision loss to Max Holloway, Rodriguez has gone 10-2 plus a No Contest in his last 13 trips inside the Octagon. Prior to losing to Holloway, Rodriguez’s only other UFC loss was a 2017 post round two TKO by doctor stoppage against Frankie Edgar. Rodriguez has only fought once since October 2019. He had been scheduled to face Zabit Magomedsharipov in August 2020, but ended up withdrawing after suffering an ankle fracture. Then he was booked to face Holloway in July 2021, but Holloway withdrew and the fight was pushed back four months. In his last fight before that extended layoff, Rodriguez won a three-round decision over Jeremy Stephens back in 2019. His last fight to end early was a crazy last second highlight reel R5 KO of The Korean Zombie in November 2018.
In his last fight, Rodriguez trailed Holloway in significant strikes in all five rounds, finishing behind 159-230 in significant strikes and 186-251 in total strikes. After landing just five total takedowns in his first 24 UFC fights combined, Holloway landed three against Rodriguez on five attempts, while Rodriguez landed one takedown of his own, also on five attempts. The fight played out as a high-volume brawl, with both guys inflicting damage, but Holloway winning a unanimous decision. Rodriguez was notably able to land 57 leg strikes as he attacked Holloway’s calf from the start, but Holloway was able to fight through the damage.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Rodriguez has four wins by KO, three by submission, and six decisions. He has two losses by KO/TKO and one by decision. Not counting his No Contest that was stopped 15 seconds in due to an eye poke, all 10 of Rodriguez’s UFC fights have seen the second round, with seven seeing round three, and six going the distance. While he does have three submission wins on his record, those all occurred in his first six pro fights before he joined the UFC. All 10 of his UFC fights (not counting the No Contest) have ended in either decisions (5-1) or KO/TKOs (3-1).
Overall, Rodriguez is a black belt in Taekwondo and likes to throw a ton of kicks and spinning attacks. He’s also shown how creative and dangerous he can be with his elbows. While he’s landed nine takedowns in the UFC, eight of those came in his first five fights with the organization and he’s only landed one takedown in his last six fights. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down 15 times on 38 attempts (60.5% defense) in the UFC, including six times on just nine attempts in his last two fights.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Rodriguez’s UFC career. He won a 2016 five-round split decision over Alex Caceres and then knocked out BJ Penn in the opening minute of round two in his next five-round match in 2017. His third UFC five round fight ended in a last second KO win over The Korean Zombie in 2018, and then he had a five-round bout stopped 15 seconds in due to an eye poke and ruled a No Contest against Jeremy Stephens. His 5th and most recent round-fight fight came in his recent decision loss to Holloway, so overall Rodriguez is 3-1 plus No Contest in five round fights so far in his career. However, he’s one second and one judge’s score card away from being 1-3, as he was losing on the scorecards against The Korean Zombie before landing the literal last second KO and his only five-round decision win was split against Caceres.
Fight Prediction:
Rodriguez will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This sets up as an exciting fight to watch as both guys have recently been involved in some high-volume brawls. Rodriguez is the more versatile striker, while Ortega is the superior grappler. The key for Rodriguez will be to keep the fight standing, which could be difficult as he’s been taken down six times on nine attempts in his last fights and Ortega has landed 7 takedowns on 26 attempts in his last three fights. If Ortega can get it to the ground there’s a good chance he can lock up a submission, although keep in mind Rodriguez has never been submitted. If it remains standing, we should see a war on the feet, with Rodriguez throwing a wide variety of kicks that will make it tougher for Ortega to comfortably find his range. We like Rodriguez to win a pure striking battle so Ortega will be more reliant on his grappling to win. And while Ortega is always a submission threat, he’s never been one to simply control opponents on the mat for extended periods of time, averaging just 6% control time in his career. So the idea of him grinding out a decision largely on the mat is unlikely and he’s more reliant on landing a submission to win. With that said, it’s certainly possible he could win a decision through a combination of striking and grappling.
Considering how much Rodriguez relies on his kicking game, it will be interesting to see if Ortega can use that against him to time takedowns. If he can, that will make things much tougher for Rodriguez. Even Max Holloway, who generally relies entirely on his striking, was able to find grappling success against Rodriguez. To put numbers behind that, Holloway has landed four takedowns in his last 10 fights (just under 45 rounds) and three of those came against Rodriguez. Both Ortega and Rodriguez have looked pretty hittable, with Ortega averaging 6.69 SSA/min and Rodriguez averaging 4.09 SSA/min, so we should see these two set a decent striking pace. If it ends early, look for it to come from either an Ortega submission or a Rodriguez KO, but we like this to go into the later rounds and likely end in a close decision. While we like Rodriguez to get the better of the striking exchanges, Ortega’s grappling could be the difference maker. This is a tough one to call and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the results razor close in a potential split decision. We’ll give the slight advantage to Ortega based on his grappling advantage, but it’s dicey picking sides here.
Our favorite bet here is “Ortega/Rodriguez Fight to Start Round Four - Yes” at -158.
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DFS Implications:
Ortega has landed finishes in six of his seven UFC wins but still failed to top 81 DraftKings points in five of those finishes. Something to keep in mind, he’s generally scored better on FanDuel than DraftKings. All of those lower scoring finishes ended in rounds two and three, but he did score well in his last two wins. The most recent of those was in a five-round decision win over The Korean Zombie in 2020 where Ortega scored a career best 118 DraftKings points. His second most recent win came in a first round knockout of Frankie Edgar back in 2018, which was good for 110 points. He followed that up with a 2018 R4 TKO loss to Max Holloway and has only fought twice since 2018 after suffering a partially torn ACL during training in November of 2019. Following the injury, he switched camps and his striking has looked somewhat improved since he returned in 2020. Ortega is a BJJ black belt and will have a sizable grappling advantage in this fight as he squares off against a Taekwondo black belt in Yair Rodriguez. After landing just one takedown in his first seven UFC fights, Ortega has landed 7 on 26 attempts in his last three matches, while Rodriguez has been taken down six times on nine attempts in just his last two fights. That’s encouraging for Ortega’s chances of finding success on the mat, although he’s always been more of a submission over position type of grappler and averages just 6% control time in his career. Ortega has struggled to score well with mid round finishes in the past, which presents a way this fight fails to produce a high scorer, but if it goes the distance we should see a solid volume driven score, with Ortega scoring well through a combination of takedowns and striking. The odds imply he has a 60% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Rodriguez relies on striking volume and finishes to score well, as he’s only landed one takedown in his last six fights. He landed a career best 159 significant strikes in his recent five-round decision loss to Max Holloway, and still scored 81 DraftKings points even in a loss. While he scored 100 DraftKings points in a last second 5th round KO against The Korean Zombie in a 2018 victory, he wouldn’t have scored well had he not connected on that last second elbow. Ignoring the fact that he was losing on the scorecards, he would have scored just 80 DraftKings points and 91 points on FanDuel if he wins a decision instead of landing a knockout. Rodriguez also scored just 85 DraftKings points in a five-round split-decision win over Alex Caceres back in 2016. So overall, Rodriguez has shown roughly an 80-85 point DraftKings floor in five-round decisions. At his cheaper price tag that could still be enough for him to end up in tournament winning lineups if we only see a few dogs win on the slate, but it certainly doesn’t guarantee him a spot. Also keep in mind he’s also shown the ability to score higher and we’ve seen Ortega absorb massive striking totals in two his last two losses, with Holloway landing 290 significant strikes on him in four rounds and then Volkanovski landing 214 most recently in a five-round decision. It’s also tougher to see Rodriguez getting left out of winning lineups if he lands a finish, as he’s never scored less than 100 DraftKings points in any of his three early wins in the UFC. The odds imply Rodriguez has a 40% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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