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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Karol Rosa
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Looking to bounce back from her first UFC defeat in a smothering decision loss to Sara McMann, Rosa had won six straight fights leading up to that misstep. All five of Rosa’s UFC fights have gone the distance and the last time she finished an opponent was in a 2019 R3 TKO just before joining the organization. Just before her recent loss, Rosa sent Bethe Correia off into retirement, after defeating Joselyne Edwards, Vanessa Melo, and Lara Procopio in her first three UFC fights.
In Rosa’s last fight, McMann did what she typically does and spent the first minute or so striking to set up her first takedown attempt, which she landed, and controlled Rosa for the remainder of the round on the mat. It was rinse and repeat in round two, as McMann once again landed a takedown just over a minute into the round and controlled Rosa for the remainder, while also going for an armbar late in the round. After getting controlled for two straight rounds, Rosa came out firing in round three, but McMann responded by immediately shooting for another takedown, which she landed. Rosa was able to return to her feet, but McMann took her back standing. Rosa was finally able to mount some offense of her own when she hip-tossed McMann to the mat and took top position. However, Rosa wasn’t able to do much with the position and was indecisive with whether she wanted to return to the feet or stay on the mat and eventually McMann stood back up and the two exchanged positions along the fence until the fight ended with McMann winning a unanimous 29-28 decision. Rosa actually finished ahead in significant strikes 26-24 and in total strikes 92-73, while landing one of her two takedown attempts, while McMann went four for six on her attempts and finished ahead in control time 10:27-1:56.
Now 15-4 as a pro, Rosa has four wins by KO, two by submission, and nine decisions. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, and has two decision losses. Both of her submission losses came in 2018, one of those was against Melissa Gatto, who’s now in the UFC, and the other was against Larissa Pacheco, who had just been released by the UFC. While all five of Rosa’s UFC fights have gone the distance, her seven fights just before joining the UFC all ended early (5-2). Only two of her 19 pro fights have ended in the first round and only one of her last 16.
Overall, Rosa is a high-volume striker (6.65 SSL/min, 2nd most on the slate) who relies more on wearing down her opponents than overwhelming them with power. Her last three early finishes all came in the third round (2018, 2019 & 2019), and the one prior to that was a corner stoppage following the second round. She also had a second round armbar victory just before that one. While Rosa has shown the ability to wrestle offensively, she really struggled with her defensive wrestling against a powerful McMann in her last match, so it will be interesting to see what improvements she’s made and she actually won a grappling exhibition match since her last fight, which was curiously listed as taking place all the way up at 185 lb.
Lina Lansberg
10th UFC Fight (4-5)Now 40 years old and coming off two straight decision losses, Lansberg hasn’t won a fight since 2019 and has fought to six straight decisions. Lansberg is habitually involved in clinch battles and loves to throw a ton of elbows along the fence and make fights dirty. The last time one of her fights ended early was in a 2017 R2 TKO loss to Aspen Ladd and the last time Lansberg finished an opponent was in a 2016 R2 TKO just before she joined the UFC.
In her last fight, we saw what we always see in Lansberg’s fights as it played out as a clinch battle along the cage. Lansberg was unable to land any of her three takedown attempts, while Kianzad landed her only attempt. Kianzad finished ahead in significant strikes 78-39 and in total strikes 109-64, while leading in control time 4:31-2:23 on her way to a 29-28 decision win. Lansberg was able to drop Kianzad with an elbow in the second round, but it was Lansberg that was wearing all the damage in the fight as she was covered in blood from a nasty cut.
Now 10-6 as a pro, Lansberg has four wins by TKO and six decisions. All four of her finishes came in her first seven pro fights, prior to joining the UFC. She also has three TKO losses on her record, with the first of those coming in the third round of her 2012 pro debut against Pannie Kianzad, who she rematched in her last fight and lost a decision. The more recent two came in a 2016 R2 TKO against Cris Cyborg and a 2017 R2 TKO against Aspen Ladd. Her other three losses all ended in decisions, all of which occurred in her last five fights.
Overall, Lansberg didn’t turn pro until she was 31 and got a late start in MMA, helping to explain why she’s still fighting at 40 years old. She’s the clinch queen and her fights are all very similar as we simply see extended periods of time spent in the clinch along the fence. Lansberg has only landed above 50 significant strikes in one of her UFC fights, which was in a 2017 decision win when she landed 80. She’s also only landed five total takedowns in her eight UFC fights and generally doesn’t make much of an impact on the stat sheet.
Fight Prediction:
Lansberg will have a 2” height advantage, but Rosa will have a 2” reach advantage and is 13 years younger than the 40-year-old Lansberg.
We expect this to play out the same way all of Lansberg’s fights do, with extensive time spent working out of the clinch and lots of dirty boxing and elbows. We could see Rosa look for takedowns to try and put Lansberg on her back and more easily control her, as Lansberg has just a 50% takedown defense. The only way we see the fight stopping early is if someone gets cut badly and the doctor calls it off, which is always somewhat possible when a ton of elbows are being thrown. However, Rosa has fought to five straight decisions and Lansberg has fought to six straight. Give us Rosa by decision in this one.
Our favorite bet here is “Rosa DEC” at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Rosa has scored at least 89 DraftKings points in all four of her UFC wins, with three scores of 109 or more, despite the fact that all of those fights went the distance. This sets up as a clinch battle with tons of control time and strikes that may or may not register as significant, so Rosa looks like a much better play on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. If she can stay active with her striking opposed to simply holding Lansberg in the clinch, Rosa has the potential to put up a big score without a finish. However, she’ll need to put on a dominating performance, as we saw the winner in Lansberg’s last fight score just 81 DraftKings points in a decision. We like Rosa’s chances of outperforming that number and her high price tag and recent smothering decision loss should keep her ownership in check. That makes her an interesting tournament play with a high floor and a pretty solid ceiling. On the off chance she caps a dominant performance with a late finish, she even has the potential to put up a slate breaking score to kick off the slate. She’ll just need to avoid getting controlled and watch out for the elbows coming back her way and she should have no problem winning this fight against a 40-year-old opponent in Lansberg. The odds imply Rosa has a 74% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Lansberg has also struggled to score well in DFS throughout her career and is now 40 years old. She hasn’t won a fight since 2019 and hasn’t finished an opponent since 2016, prior to joining the UFC. The only reasons to consider her in tournaments are her low ownership, her cheap price tag, and her ability to land elbows out of the clinch that could always force a flukey doctor stoppage. She’s a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel as she racks up a ton of control time and clinch strikes, but unless she lands a finish or completely dominates this fight, she’s unlikely to score very well on either site. The odds imply she has a 26% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Muhammad Mokaev
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)After landing a 58 second submission win in his March 2022 UFC debut against Cody Durden, Mokaev dominated Charles Johnson for three rounds in a smothering decision win in his last match. Mokaev only turned pro in 2020, but had a lengthy 23-0 undefeated amateur career from 2015 to 2020 and was regarded by many as the best amateur in the world. After winning both of his amateur fights in early 2020, including the IMMAF Bantamweight Championship, he won his first four pro fights that year as well. He then won two fights in 2021 and had a third match ruled a No Contest for an accidental groin strike.
In his last fight, Mokaev basically controlled the entire fight as he landed 12 takedowns on an insane 26 attempts and finished with nearly 12 minutes of control time against a debuting Charles Johnson. Significant strikes ended dead even at 12 a piece, while Johnson finished ahead in total strikes 71-32. Johnson never attempted any takedowns of his own in the match and Mokaev cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Mokaev is still undefeated with two wins by TKO, three by submission, and three decision victories. Both of his TKO wins ended in round one, while his submission victories have been spread across the first three rounds. Mokaev competed at both 125 lb and 135 lb as an amateur, but his first four pro fights were all at 135 lb. He then dropped down to 125 lb in 2021. However, his last two fights before joining the UFC both took place at a 130 lb Catchweight. He dropped back down to 125 lb for his debut and that’s where we expect him to stay moving forward.
Overall, Mokaev has a wrestling background, which is evident to anyone that has watched him fight. He’s extremely fluid with his transitions and is relentless with his takedown attempts. He’ll seamlessly chain takedowns together and reverse positions quicker than a greased up python. He’s certainly not helpless on the feet either, but his wrestling is what got him to the UFC. Still just 22 years old, Mokaev has talked about how he wants to become the youngest UFC champion of all time, which is understandable considering he has never tasted defeat.
Malcolm Gordon
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Gordon bounced back from a pair of first round losses in his first two UFC fights to win his last two matches and secure a second UFC contract. He got submitted in round one by a really tough Amir Albazi in his July 2020 UFC debut, and was then knocked out in just 44 seconds by Su Mudaerji in his next match. He rebounded with a decision win over Francisco Figueiredo after the pair of losses, and then won by R1 TKO due to an arm injury of his opponent in his last match. Ten of Gordon’s last 11 fights have ended early (8-3), with nine of those ending in round one and another in the first half of round two.
In his last fight, Gordon landed some good early shots but then got taken down early in the first round. However, he looked to lock up an armbar off his back, and while it wasn’t successful he may have caused some initial damage to the arm as shortly after the fight was stopped after Gordon tossed Denys Bondar to the mat and Bondar tried to post on his arm to get back up and it looked like his elbow dislocated as he did. The fight only lasted 82 seconds before it was stopped, with both fighters landing their only takedown attempt. Bondar led in significant strikes 4-3, while Gordon led in total strikes 6-4.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Gordon has five wins by KO, six by submission, and three decisions. All five of his career losses have come early, with four KOs and one submission. His first two career losses were by R2 KO, but his last three have all occurred in R1. He’s only been to the third round three times in his career and those all ended in decisions. His other 16 career fights have all ended in the first two rounds. Gordon made his debut in July 2020 up at 135 lb against Amir Albazi, who submitted him late in the first round. While Gordon did have three previous fights at 135 lb, and won all three of those by KO, the rest of his career has been down at 125 lb and he moved back down after his debut.
Overall, Gordon is a A BJJ black belt and typically a finish or get finished type of fighter. He’s gone 2-1 in the UFC since dropping back down to 125 lb, but now he’ll face a really tough test in his next matchup. Gordon has landed 4 takedowns on 13 attempts in his four UFC fights (30.8% accuracy), while getting taken down on all three of his opponents’ attempts (0% defense). He only averages 2.39 SSL/min and 2.43 SSA/min, so we haven’t seen a ton of striking in any of his fights, as three of them have played out as grappling battles.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Gordon will have a 1” reach advantage and is 10 years older than the 22-year-old Mokaev.
This sets up as a brutally tough matchup for Gordon against the young phenom in Mokaev, but in fairness, Gordon is a BJJ black belt and the only submission loss of his career came up at 135 lb in his UFC debut. If Gordon can survive the first round, he may at least be able to ride this one out to a decision, but Mokaev has looked like a real problem on the mat and could also test Gordon on the feet early. We saw Gordon pull off major upsets in each of his last two fights, but this looks like a much tougher task for him to do that again and we’re taking Mokaev here. While a first round finish is likely, we actually kind of like Moakev to win by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +240.
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DFS Implications:
Mokaev’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting gives him both a solid floor and ceiling in DFS, especially on DraftKings, where he scored 120 points in his recent decision win, while that was good for just 99 points on FanDuel. His history of finishes is also encouraging, and he scored 126 DraftKings points in his 58 second first round submission win in his UFC debut. However, he’s still just 22 years old and will likely have some growing pains along the way as he squares off against grown men early in his UFC career. As the most expensive fighter on the slate, there are also lots of ways for him to get priced out of winning tournament lineups if he fails to put up a slate-breaking score. The field was low on him in each of his first two UFC fights, where he checked in at just 28% and 29% DraftKings ownership, but we expect him to be more popular now following the pair of big performances. That slightly lowers his tournament appeal, but he has the potential to once again land a ton of takedowns and control time in this fight or land an early finish, so we’re definitely not fading him and he may have the highest floor/ceiling scoring combination on the slate. The odds imply he has an 89% chance to win, a 61% chance to land a finish, and a 33% chance it comes in round one.
Gordon is coming off a career scoring performance where he notched 102 DraftKings points in a first round TKO win due to an opponent’s arm injury. He’s now won two straight and has some momentum going, but he’s stepping into an absolutely brutal matchup. While Gordon is a BJJ black belt, he’s shown a suspect chin throughout his career and there are multiple ways he could get finished in this fight. That leaves him with a non-existent floor as he’s the most likely fighter on the slate to lose in round one. However, he’ll also be a massive leverage play in tournaments if something crazy happens again, as Gordon projects to be very low owned, while Mokaev will be extremely popular. You’re likely lighting money on fire playing Gordon, but he does offer tournament winning upside if he can somehow pull off his third straight upset. Eleven of his 14 career wins have come early and even if he somehow wins a decision that could easily still be enough for him to be useful as his bottom-of-the-barrel price tag. The odds imply he has an 11% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Armen Petrosyan
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from a smothering decision loss against Caio Borralho, Petrosyan has now fought to two straight decisions with the organization after all seven of his pre-UFC fights ended in knockouts. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a first round knockout on DWCS in October 2021.
In his last fight, Petrosyan got taken down early in the first round by Borralho, who controlled him for the entire round but never threatened a finish on the mat. That’s pretty much how the entire fight played out, as Borralho finished with four takedowns on five attempts and over 10 minutes of control time. He lacked any sort of urgency to look for a finish and appeared perfectly content with riding out a decision. Petrosyan finished ahead in significant strikes 31-12 and in total strikes 72-49.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Petrosyan has six wins by KO and one by decision. The only loss of his career came in a 2021 63 second R1 KO. His last two, and three of his six knockout wins also occurred in round one, while he has two more second round finishes, and one in round three. His last four early wins have all occurred in the first two rounds. Petrosyan fought his last five fights prior to joining the UFC up at 205 lb, but dropped down to 185 lb for his debut, which is where it appears he will stay. He also notably only weighed in at 201.5 for his DWCS match.
Overall, Petrosyan is a black belt in karate and a karate, K-1, and Muay Thai champion, as well being a world champion in Muay Thai. He’s a pure striker who offers absolutely nothing in terms of grappling and he tends to give up his back when trying to return to his feet after getting taken down. Apparently he went to Dagestan prior to going on DWCS to work on his defensive wrestling, so he’s at least trying to improve that gaping hole in his game, but we’ve yet to see that pay off. In his DWCS win, Petrosyan was taken down three times on five attempts in a fight that only lasted four and a half minutes. Then in his UFC debut, he was taken down twice on three attempts, before getting taken down four times on five attempts in his last match. So overall he’s been taken down 9 times on 13 attempts in his last three fights and has just a 30% takedown defense. He’s yet to look for any takedowns of his own in those fights.
AJ Dobson
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a smothering decision loss in his UFC debut against Jacob Malkoun, Dobson had previously been undefeated in his brief pro career. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a crazy brawling first round submission win on DWCS, Dobson came out swinging bombs and nearly landed a quick knockout, but his opponent was able to hang on for dear life on the mat. Later in the round, Dobson was able to lock in a rear-naked choke despite not even really having his opponent’s back or any hooks in, as he choked him out from a weird side angle.
In his last fight, Dobson landed some good early punches, but Malkoun was able to survive the early attacks. Dobson did a good job of defending takedowns in the round, fighting off Malkoun’s first seven attempts before finally getting grounded late in the round. However, Malkoun found more success getting the fight to the mat as the fight went on as he appeared to wear on Dobson, and landed two takedowns on four attempts in round two and three more on another four attempts in round three. Each time Malkoun got Dobson to the ground, he was able to control him for longer than the last. Malkoun finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 80-52 and in total strikes 183-68 as he won a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Still just 6-1 as a pro, Dobson has three wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision victory. All five of his finishes occurred in round one, with three ending in 60 seconds or less. His only career loss came by decision in his recent UFC debut. He’s only been past the first round twice in his career, with both of those fights going the distance. He has fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb in the past, but it appears he will be sticking at 185 lb for the time being.
Overall, Dobson is an aggressive brawler who throws violent punches with fight-ending intentions. He’s just a BJJ purple belt and doesn’t appear to offer a ton in terms of grappling, but will also look to wrap up chokes on the mat. His father was also a fighter and Dobson played college football for a year before dropping out to pursue a career in MMA.
Fight Prediction:
Petrosyan will have a 2” height advantage, but Dobson will have a 5” reach advantage.
Both of these two are aggressive strikers and this potentially sets up to be one of the most exciting fights on the card. Dobson will have the grappling advantage, should he choose to use it, even if he’s not a great grappler. Both guys are the most dangerous early on in fights, and there’s a good chance someone gets finished in the opening two rounds. If it stays standing, it will likely just come down to which guy can absorb more damage. With that said, Dobson would be a fool not to try and take Petrosyan down, so hopefully his team is smart enough to build the game plan around that. With such a gaping hole in Petrosyan’s grappling game, we’re taking the underdog Dobson here, as he has the ability to finish the fight both on the feet and the mat. We like his chances to find an early finish with a decent shot he looks to wrap up another sloppy submission.
Our favorite bet here is Dobson’s ML at +180.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Petrosyan had a 100% finishing rate prior to joining the UFC, but we’ve yet to see that translate to the next level as he won a questionable split decision in his UFC debut and scored just 81 DraftKings points and then got smothered on the mat for three rounds in his last match as he lost another decision. While he’s a powerful striker, he’s an absolute turtle on the mat and incredibly easy to game plan for. That makes it really tough to depend on him to win fights and he’ll always be a risky play whenever he fights anybody that can even spell takedown. With all that said, he does offer finishing upside and lands a good amount of striking volume. So if Dobson is foolish enough to stand and bang with him, Petrosyan has a high ceiling and a decent shot at landing a knockout. He’s a low floor, high ceiling play whose ownership should remain in check due to his high price tag and past scoring struggles. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Dobson’s ultra aggressive fighting style appears perfectly suited for DFS as he looks to nuke his opponents in the opening seconds of fights with three of his six career wins coming in 60 seconds or less. He has two submission wins on his record, but isn’t an exceptional grappler. However, he’d be a fool not to try and take this fight to the mat as he faces a dangerous, but one-dimensional striker in Petrosyan who can’t defend takedowns and is helpless on the mat. Dobson seems like a smart enough guy that we would expect him to not completely ignore that gaping hole in Petrosyan’s game. However, you really never know what a young fighter will do, and perhaps he does just keep the fight standing and look for a highlight reel knockout. He’s certainly capable of ending the fight that way as well, but it will keep him at risk of getting finished himself. While we don’t know what his exact gameplan will be, he has a massive scoring ceiling regardless of whether he looks for a finish on the feet or the mat and all five of his career wins have come in the first round. That also indicates he could be a boom or bust play as he’s yet to ever land a finish beyond the first round. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Continuing his cycle of inactivity, Nurmagomedov has fought just once since 2019, which was 19 months ago in March 2021. He had two fights scheduled since then, but both were canceled. After impressively starting his pro career 14-1, Abubakar has now gone just 2-2-1 in his last four fights. He suffered a first round submission loss in his November 2019 UFC debut. Abubakar was winning the fight after taking his opponent, David Zawada, down less than a minute into the match, but got caught with a triangle choke from Zawada’s dangerous guard.
In his last fight, things remained on the feet more expected going in, as Nurmagomedov landed just 1 of his 5 takedown attempts with over four minutes of control time. Nurmagomedov surprisingly only even attempted one takedown in the first two rounds, which he failed to land in round one. He finally looked to wrestle more in round three, but was still only able to land one of his four attempts in the final five minutes, but did control Gooden for four minutes down the stretch to secure the 30-27 decision win. Nurmagomedov outlanded Gooden 60-43 in significant strikes, while Gooden led 111-100 in total strikes.
Now 16-3-1 as a pro, Nurmagomedov has six wins by KO, four submissions, and six decision wins. He’s been finished in all three of his losses, with a 2014 doctor stoppage R1 TKO, a 2018 R2 submission loss, and a 2019 R1 submission defeat. His last four wins and six of his last seven victories have all ended in decisions. His last KO victory came in 2016 and his last submission win was back in 2014. Also notable, 8 of his 10 finishes came in his first eight pro fights against lower level opponents.
Overall, Nurmagomedov generally relies on his wrestling to grind out decision wins, although we did see his last fight remain on the feet for the first two rounds. Nurmagomedov has been training with his cousin Khabib for essentially his entire life as they lived together growing up. You can definitely see some similarities in their wrestling, but don’t expect the second coming of Khabib here. With that said, similar to his cousin, Abubakar looks like his preferred way to win fights is by dominating control time and exerting heavy top pressure.
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)After suffering his first career loss in a technical decision to Caio Borralho in his UFC debut, Omargadzhiev curiously has made the decision to go into full panic mode and drop down to 170 lb for the first time since 2014. Prior to making his debut, Omargadzhiev landed a first round submission win on DWCS in October 2021.
In his recent UFC debut, Omargadzhiev took Caio Borralho down a minute into the fight, but Borralho was immediately able to reverse the position and control Omargadzhiev for the remainder of the round. Early in round two Omargadzhiev wildly missed on a big punch and his momentum carried him to the mat where Borralho immediately took his back and once again controlled him for the remainder of the round. While Borralho didn’t even need to attempt a takedown to get the fight to the ground in the first two rounds, he landed his only attempt of the fight midway through round three. However, as Omargadzhiev returned to his feet, Borralho landed an illegal knee as Omargadzhiev still had one hand on the mat. There was only 64 seconds remaining in the fight and instead of getting disqualified Borralho was deducted a point and it went to a technical decision as Omargadzhiev said he was unable to continue. Borralho won all three rounds prior to the illegal strike, so he went on to win a 29-27 unanimous technical decision. The fight ended with Omargadzhiev landing one of his two takedown attempts, while getting taken down once himself. He finished behind in control time 10:11-0:22, while also trailing 31-12 in significant strikes and 63-61 in total strikes.
Now 13-1 as a pro, Omargadzhiev has eight wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. He’s never been finished and his only loss came in his recent decision defeat in his UFC debut. He’s only been past the second round three times in his career and only twice in his last 12 fights, however, two of his last three matches ended in decisions. Seven of his last nine finishes have come in the first round.
Overall, Omargadzhiev is a smothering wrestler who does a good job of landing takedowns and controlling his opponents for extended periods of time. All 11 of his finishes have come in the first two rounds. He’s a Dhagestani Combat Sambo World Champion who trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris, France—the same gym Ciryl Gane came out of. He started off in freestyle wrestling as a child before transitioning to MMA as a teenager. He’s fully capable of submitting opponents, but more often finishes fights with ground and pound as he often looks to assume either the full mount or the crucifix position to force stoppages. While Omargadzhiev turned pro back in 2013, he did get knocked out in the European MMA Championships in 2018, but that is listed on his Amateur record. He also somehow won the 2018 Russian Amateur MMA Championships in 2018, five years after he turned pro, so apparently he’s a ringer.
Fight Prediction:
Omargadzhiev will have a 2” height advantage, but Nurmagomedov will have a 1” reach advantage.
Both of these two are Russian wrestlers, so it will be interesting to see what level of respect they show to the other’s grappling. Sometimes matchups like this end up staying more on the feet than expected, as neither guy wants to test the strength of the other. Nurmagomedov showed a willingness to partake in a striking battle in his last fight, so it wouldn’t be that surprising to see that again from him. And at the same time, Omargadzhiev got reversed on the mat early in his last match, and ended up getting controlled for the entire fight. Also interesting to see will be how the drop down in weight class goes for Omargadzhiev, as that makes this a higher variance spot and increases the chances of a knockout if the weight cut was a tough one for him. While these two seem fairly evenly matched on paper and neither has been very impressive so far in the UFC, we’ll take Nurmagomedov and wouldn’t be shocked to see him land his first knockout since 2016, despite the fact that Omargadzhiev has never been finished in his career. With that said, a decision win for Nurmagomedov is still more likely.
Our favorite bet here is Nurmagomedov’s ML at -165.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Nurmagomedov scored just 75 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, after getting submitted in the first round of his 2019 UFC debut. He’s been incredibly inactive, which is a red flag, and hasn’t finished anybody since 2016, which is also concerning for his upside. He’s taking on a fellow Russian wrestler here, so it’s always possible we see a wrestling stalemate with more striking than we’re used to out of these two. That also makes it tougher to trust Nurmagomedov, at least from a floor perspective. Working in his favor, he should be low owned and has both wrestling and finishing upside as he goes against an opponent moving down a weight class. Overall, this is a high-variance spot with a wide range of outcomes, which is always interesting in tournaments. The odds imply Nurmagomedov has a 59% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Omargadzhiev’s wrestling heavy approach is theoretically a great fit for the DraftKings scoring system, as he generally accrues large amounts of control time and a decent number of ground strikes when he wins. He also has the ability to rack up takedowns and 11 of his 13 pro wins have come early, so he still makes for an interesting play in all DFS formats. However, he got controlled for the entire fight in his recent UFC debut and will now be dropping down a weight class, so he also has several red flags surrounding him. He has seen the line move in his favor, although that may also bump up his ownership. At his cheap price tag, there are several ways for him to end up in tournament winning lineups, as Nurmagomedov has been finished in all three of his pro losses. This looks like a boom or bust spot so it makes sense to have some exposure and just hope this fight doesn’t play out as a slow paced striking battle that ends in a decision, which is certainly one possible outcome. The odds imply Omargadzhiev has a 41% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Nikita Krylov
17th UFC Fight (9-7)Coming off his first win in his last three fights, Krylov knocked out Alexander Gustafsson in just 67 seconds. It should be pointed out that Gustafsson hadn’t competed in two years and has lost four straight fights though. Prior to his recent win, Krylov suffered a first round submission loss to Paul Craig, after losing a decision to Magomed Ankalaev. His other two most recent losses were a split-decision against Glover Teixeira and a round two submission against Jan Blachowicz, so he hasn’t been losing to bums. Krylov originally joined the UFC in 2013, but following a 2016 first round submission loss to Misha Cirkunov, Krylov parted ways with the UFC and fought his next four fights outside of the organization and then returned in 2018. Since returning, he’s gone 3-4 and has yet to win two fights in a row.
In his last fight, Krylov came out aggressive, knocking Alexander Gustafsson down 10 seconds into the first round. While Gustafsson was quickly able to return to his feet, Krylov kept the pressure on as he unloaded with knees and punches. Gustafsson tried to hang on to survive, but Krylov continued to unload on him and landed a second knockdown a minute in and the fight was quickly stopped as he rained down ground and pound. Krylov finished ahead in striking 26-5, with a pair of knockdowns, in a fight that lasted just 67 seconds. He just blitzed Gustafsson from the start and Gustafsson was never able to get his feet under him.
Now 28-9 as a pro, Krylov has 12 KOs, 15 submissions, and one decision win. He’s only been knocked out once in 38 pro fights, but he’s been submitted six times, and has two decision losses. Overall, 92% of his career fights have ended early. However, while Krylov has only been to three decisions in 37 pro fights, those all came in his last five matches. Six of his last eight fights have made it out of the first round, after 25 of his first 29 pro fights ended in round one. His last four early losses all ended in submissions and the only time he’s ever been knocked out was in the third round of his 2013 UFC debut. Krylov started his career at Heavyweight, before dropping down to 205 lb following a 2014 R1 KO win over Walt Harris.
Overall, Krylov is a black belt in Kyokushin Karate and a Ukrainian Master of Sports in Army hand-to-hand combat and submission fighting. He’s a solid grappler and powerful striker, who tends to start strong but tires out later in fights. All 26 of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, while his lone KO loss occurred in round three. He’s also just 1-2 in decisions and overall he’s 1-3 in his career in fights that have lasted longer than 10 minutes. He’s still just 30 years old, but with 36 pro fights under his belt he has a lot of wear and tear on his body.
Volkan Oezdemir
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Oezdemir is coming off his first win since 2019, after he got knocked out by Jiri Prochazka and then lost a decision to Magomed Ankalaev in two of the tougher matchups you could ask for. He most recently won a tactical decision over Paul Craig in somewhat of a bizarre fight. Oezdemir only has three wins in his last eight outings and one of those victories ended in a split decision over Aleksandar Rakic, with another coming against an aging Ilir Latifi. All eight of those fights made it out of the first round, with five seeing round three, and four going the distance. In fairness to Oezdemir, he’s been fighting guys at the top of the division, with his last five losses coming against Magomed Ankalaev, Jiri Prochazka, Dominick Reyes, Anthony Smith, and Daniel Cormier.
In Oezdemir’s last fight, Craig tried to get the fight to the ground by any means necessary, as he rolled around, pulled guard and dove at Oezdemir’s legs throughout the match. Oezdemir did a great job of staying calm and remaining out of danger, as he successfully defended all 15 of Craig’s takedown attempts and never allowed Craig to lock up an official submission attempt. Oezdemir chose his spots wisely and carefully picked Craig apart while trying to avoid spending much time in his guard. The fight ended with Oezdemir ahead 72-33 in significant strikes and 108-41 in total strikes.
Now 18-6 as a pro, Oezdemir has 12 wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. Eleven of his 12 knockout wins occurred in the first round with the other ending in round two. His lone submission victory all ended in round one. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. He was nearly submitted a third time by Daniel Cormier in a 2018 title fight, but Oezdemir was saved by the bell at the end of round one and finished with ground and pound in round two instead. Three of those four early losses came in the second round, with the other ending in round three. Three of the six decisions he’s been to have been split (2-1).
Overall, Oezdemir is a powerful striker who throws violent leg kicks. His background is in kickboxing and he doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling, with just three takedowns landed in his 11-fight UFC career. However, he does have a solid 86% takedown defense and has only been taken down 6 times on 45 attempts by his opponents.
Fight Prediction:
Krylov will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also three years younger than the 33-year-old Oezdemir.
Krylov has failed to land a takedown in 9 of his 16 UFC fights. All nine of those fights ended early (7-2) and the only times he’s fought to decisions have been when his fights turn into grappling matches. While he may look to grapple here (you never know with Krylov) Oezdemir has a solid 86% takedown defense that will likely force Krylov into a striking battle. While Oezdemir hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2019 and isn’t really a submission threat, two-thirds of his career wins have come by knockout and he’s still just 33 years old. While Krylov has been far more prone to getting submitted than knocked out, if these two come in motivated to put on a show then someone should get put away in the first two rounds. They’re both riding high after breaking their respective losing streaks in their last fights, so it will be interesting to see how aggressive they are. While there’s a decent chance someone gets finished early, we could also see them both slow down if the fight makes it to the back half. Therefore this looks like a boom or bust spot where we either see a finish in the opening round and a half or for it to go the distance. Neither would be that surprising and both fighters have gone the distance in three of their last five respective bouts. Krylov is the more dangerous grappler, but Oezdemir’s solid takedown defense could negate that. While it’s not impossible for Oezdemir to land a knockout, we like Krylov to win this one with either a finish in the first two rounds or by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Krylov R1 or R2 KO” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Krylov has averaged 113 DraftKings points in his nine UFC wins with at least 97 in all of those and 105 or more in eight of them. All but one of his 28 career wins have come early, with all 27 of those finishes coming in the first two rounds. Now he’ll face an opponent who’s been finished in four of his six pro losses so there’s no reason to think Krylov can’t find another finish here. However, this does look like a tough spot for Krylov to find much grappling success, as Oezdemir has a solid 86% takedown defense. However, if Krylov can get the fight to the ground, he’ll have a major advantage on the mat and at that point a submission is very possible. He’s also coming off an impressive 67 second R1 knockout performance where he put up a slate-breaking 121 points. While that should bump his ownership up some, he’s priced right above the two main event favorites and he could still go somewhat overlooked. While he did score 105 DraftKings points in his one career decision win with a grappling-heavy performance, he probably needs a finish here to be useful. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Oezdemir has been a boom or bust DFS commodity, with monster DraftKings scores of 122, 120, and 127 in his three UFC KO wins, but just 80, 67, and 70 points in his three decision victories. While Oezdemir has only landed one knockout in his last eight fights, he’s been facing really tough competition, that could have us undervaluing Oezdemir to some extent as he’s simply been outmatched. While we’re still not excited about playing him, if Krylov forces this into an uptempo brawl as he often does, Oezdemir would just need to land one clean shot to potentially break the slate. He’s not a guy we’re looking to have a ton of exposure to but it makes sense to sprinkle him into your player pool as 13 of his 18 career wins have come in the first two rounds. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Caio Borralho
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Entering this matchup on an 11 fight winning streak, Borralho hasn’t lost a fight since 2015 in a decision defeat in his second pro match. He narrowly won a technical decision after throwing an illegal knee in his UFC debut against Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, after going on DWCS twice in less than a month's time in September and October 2021. After not getting a contract in a decision win at 185 lb, he returned to the show three weeks later at 205 lb and landed a first round knockout to secure a spot on the roster.
In his last fight, Borralho took Petrosyan down early in the first round and controlled him for the entire round, but never threatened a finish on the mat. That’s pretty much how the entire fight played out, as Borralho finished with four takedowns on five attempts and over 10 minutes of control time. He lacked any sort of urgency to look for a finish and appeared perfectly content with riding out a decision. Petrosyan finished ahead in significant strikes 31-12 and in total strikes 72-49.
Now 12-1 as a pro, Borralho has four wins by KO, three by submission, and five decisions. His only career loss came in a 2015 decision in his second pro fight. All four of his knockouts have ended in the first round, as have two of his three submission wins. His only finish beyond the first round was a 2016 third round rear-naked choke. While 7 of his 12 career wins have come early, five of his last six victories have ended in decisions, with the one exception being a first round KO win on DWCS in a fight up at 205 lb against an unimpressive opponent in Jesse Murray who has been knocked out in the first two rounds in all four of his losses. Borralho started his career at 170 lb in 2014 before moving up to 185 lb in 2018. His only career fight at 205 lb came in his last fight before joining the UFC, and he returned to 185 lb for his UFC debut.
Overall, Borralho is a well rounded fighter who is a Judo brown belt and a BJJ black belt and has spent extensive time training with Demian Maia, so you know he can handle himself on the mat. With that said, he generally pushes a slower pace, and tends to coast down the stretch in fights. He seems clueless in terms of what the UFC and fans are looking for out of fighters, and hypes himself up way too much after boring decision wins. His karate style paired with his grappling generally makes for lower significant striking totals in his fights. Only three of his seven finishes came against opponents with winning records and he’s still yet to face an opponent with any UFC experience. He looks like a guy who will need to be humbled once or twice before he fully reaches his potential, but does appear to have the physical tools required to be a problem in the division, especially for opponents who can’t grapple.
Makhmud Muradov
5th UFC Fight (3-1)After dropping out of his last two scheduled fights, Muradov will be looking to get back inside the Octagon for the first time in 14 months after getting submitted in the second round by Gerald Meerschaert back in August 2021. Prior to that loss, Muradov had won 14 straight fights dating back to 2016, with 11 of those ending in knockouts. Following a low-volume decision win in his UFC debut, Muradov landed a highlight reel December 2019 R3 KO against Trevor Smith. For context, the 38-year-old Trevor Smith was on a two fight losing streak coming in, but hadn’t been finished since 2014. Then forced to wait 13 months for his next match, Muradov had four straight fights canceled in 2020—twice when his opponents withdrew, once when he withdrew, and once for a canceled COVID event. He finally made his way back inside the Octagon against a wrestler in Andrew Sanchez in January 2021 and landed another third round knockout leading up to his loss to Meerschaert.
In Muradov’s last fight, Meerschaert pulled off a stunning upset as a massive +500 underdog. Meerschaert showed an improved chin in the match as he absorbed several heavy blows from Muradov. Despite being outmatched on the feet, Meerschaert was also able to land some big shots of his own to command at least some level of respect, but it was his sudden durability that was the most surprising after he was knocked out in the first round in two of his previous three fights. Meerschaert was able to drag Muradov to the mat early in round two as he immediately took his back and slid in a Rear-Naked Choke to force a tap. The fight ended with Muradov ahead in significant strikes 40-32 with Meerschaert going 3 for 10 on takedowns in a fight that lasted just under seven minutes.
Now 25-7 as a pro, Muradov has 17 wins by KO, three by submission and five decisions. He has one TKO loss on his record, but it notably resulted from a Clavicle injury so it should be taken with a grain of salt. He’s also been submitted four times, but three of those came in his first eight pro fights from 2012 to 2013. His two decision losses occurred in 2012 and 2014. While 25 of Muradov’s 32 pro fights have ended early, his last five have all made it out of the first round, with three making it to the third round, but only one going the distance.
Overall, Muradov is a dangerous striker with a background in kickboxing. He’s a patient, powerful striking, with good footwork. He’s been taken down three times on 15 opponent attempts so far in the UFC and holds a solid 80% takedown defense. However, all three of those landed takedowns came in his last fight where he ended up getting submitted. On the other side of things, he’s only landed one of his own six takedown attempts.
Fight Prediction:
Muradov will allegedly have a 4” but we’re not buying that Borralho is only 5’10” as he’s listed by the UFC.
Borralho has already proven himself to be one of the most boring fighters on the roster as he spent the entirety of his first two UFC fights holding his opponents’ backs on the mat, while never threatening a finish. To his credit, he is good at executing that game plan, but it makes for a painfully slow experience for the fans. It will be interesting to see if he adds anything to his game here or if he once again looks to ride out a decision win on the ground. Muradov is a very dangerous striker, but looked vulnerable on the ground in his last fight, so it’s hard to imagine Borralho will stray from his game plan in this matchup, as he’ll be at risk of getting knocked out on the feet, but should have a major advantage on the ground. Muradov just got choked out in his last fight as soon as Meerschaert took his back in round two, so if Borralho was ever going to lock up a submission, this does look like a decent spot for him to do it, but he strangely just hasn’t looked motivated to finish anybody. On the feet, Muradov is always live to land a knockout, and Borralho’s cardio hasn’t looked great, increasing the chances for another late knockout from Muradov, something he’s already done twice in the UFC. While the most likely outcome is that Borralho takes Muradov down and hangs on his back for three rounds, if he’s not going to try for a finish then Muradov will have at least three opportunities to land a knockout. We’re fully prepared to watch Borralho grind out another grappling-heavy decision win, but we do think there’s a chance Muradov knocks him out. So while our official pick here is Borralho by decision, we’re interested in Muradov from the betting side of things.
Our favorite bet here is “Muradov KO” at +380.
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DFS Implications:
Borralho has the physical tools required to put up big DFS scores as he’s a big powerful guy with good grappling, however he appears clueless when it comes to looking for a finish on the mat and he’s been content with just hanging on opponents’ backs for entire fights. That has resulted in him scoring 80 and 77 DraftKings points in his two decision wins, despite finishing with over 10 minutes of control time in both of those matches. If he starts being busier on the ground, he could put up huge DraftKings scores, but until he shows us that it’s hard to rely on him suddenly changing. He also tends to slow down in the third round, so perhaps he’s just trying to preserve his cardio, but that makes it even tougher to hope that he’ll suddenly start being more active early on. This does look like a favorable matchup for him as he faces a striker in Muradov who was just submitted in his last fight, but we’re losing faith in Borralho’s ability to finish anybody or even look like he wants to. Maybe he’ll prove us wrong or maybe he’ll grind out another boring decision and fail to do anything on the ground, only time will tell. He does appear to have a solid DraftKings floor, as he’s never been finished and is constantly looking to get fights to the ground. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Muradov is a dangerous striker who won 14 straight fights leading up to his recent submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert, but this looks like a tough matchup for him to go off as he faces a durable grappler who’s never been knocked out and looks to grind opponents out on the mat for 15 minutes. That will give Muradov limited opportunities to find a knockout and even if he does land another late finish, if gets controlled for the first portion of the fight it would likely not score very well. However, at his cheap price tag that could still be enough to be useful if we only see a few dogs on the slate win. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Sean Brady
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Eleven months removed from a decision win over Micahel Chiesa, Brady kept his perfect record intact as he moved to 5-0 in the UFC. Three of those UFC wins went the distance, while the other two ended in submissions in rounds two and three. One of those submission wins came against one-dimensional power puncher Christian Aguilera, who never had a prayer of competing with Brady on the ground. His last nine fights have all made it to the second round, with seven of his last eight seeing round three, and five of those going the distance.
In his last fight, we had a herky jerky start as Brady got poked in the twice in the opening two minutes, but thankfully he was able to continue. Midway through the round, Brady took Chiesa down but wasn’t able to keep him there. However he hung onto him on the feet and took him back to the mat shortly after. Once again, Chiesa was able to return to his feet eventually and return to space on the feet for the final minute of the round. The first half of round two played out on the feet, before Brady engaged in the clinch and eventually dragged Chiesa to the mat, where he was able to take his back and control him for the remainder of the round. Chiesa came out aggressive in round three, but Brady once again engaged in the clinch and looked to get the fight to the ground, landing two more takedowns in the final round, while Chiesa also landed his only takedown attempt of the fight in the closing seconds. It ended with Chiesa ahead 29-18 in significant strikes and 71-51 in total strikes, with Brady landing 5 of his 8 takedown attempts and leading in control time 7:45-0:53. While Brady did a good job of taking Chiesa down and controlling him, he was never close to finding a finish.
Now 15-0 as a pro, Brady has three wins by KO, four by submission, and eight decision wins. Two of his KO wins came in the first round of his first five pro fights, while his most recent KO victory came in the fourth round of a 2019 match. The first submission win of his career came in round one, but the last three have ended in the later rounds, with two in round two, and one in round three.
Overall, Brady is a really powerful grappler who also has good striking. He’s a BJJ black belt with a mean one-armed guillotine choke. His inability to finish Micahel Chiesa, who has previously been finished in all five of his pro losses, is somewhat concerning for Brady’s finishing potential moving forward as he faces guys at the top of the division, and things won’t get any easier in this next matchup as he faces an extremely durable Belal Muhammad.
Belal Muhammad
17th UFC Fight (12-3, NC)Not counting a 2021 No Contest against Leon Edwards, Muhammad has won his last seven fights dating back to a 2019 decision loss to Geoff Neal. He’s coming off a five-round decision win over Vicente Luque, after also winning decisions against a pair of aging fighters in Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia just before that. Muhammad’s only finish since 2016 was a 2019 R3 submission over a one-dimensional striker in Takashi Sato, and his last 12 fights have all made it to the third round, with all but one of those going the distance.
In his last fight, Belal Muhammad forced Luque to chase him around the Octagon, while shooting for takedowns any chance he got. Muhammad landed his first takedown midway through round one, with Luque returning to his feet late in the round. That was enough for Muhammad to steal the first round after trailing in significant strikes. Muhammad continued to land one takedown in every round of the fight, while trailing in significant strikes in three of the rounds and narrowly leading in the other two rounds. Muhammad finished the fight behind in significant strikes 60-84, but led in total strikes 136-102 and in takedowns 5-0, as he went on to win a boring decision.
Now 21-3 as a pro, Muhammad has four wins by KO, one by submission, and 16 decisions. The only time he’s ever finished an opponent in the first round was a R1 TKO in his 2012 pro debut. He’s also been knocked out once and has two decision losses. Since joining the UFC in 2016, Muhammad has fought to 12 decisions. His only KO/TKO win with the organization came in the third round of his second UFC fight against an opponent who never fought again. His only submission win was also in the third round, while his one early loss was a 79 second R1 KO against Vicente Luque in 2016, the first time they fought.
Overall, Muhammad is a boring decision grinder who relies on outworking his opponents as he lacks any sort of finishing ability. A big part of Muhammad’s game is to shoot for a ton of takedowns and he averages 6.5 attempts per 15 minutes, although he has just a 35% takedown accuracy. On the other side of the grappling game, only eight of Muhammad’s 16 UFC opponents have tried to take him down, and they combined to land just 3 of their 36 attempts, resulting in Muhammad’s 91.7% takedown defense. Just keep in mind, 21 of those attempts came from Demian Maia, who only landed one. Two of the other three opponents to try and take Muhammad down more than once were able to land at least one of their attempts, but he’s still been a tough guy to get down and no one has ever gotten him down more than once. He’s notably been training with Makhachev and Khabib leading up to this fight and will actually have Khabib in his corner.
Fight Prediction:
Muhammad will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 72” reach. Brady is five years younger than the 34-year-old Muhammad.
Belal has spent essentially his entire career facing strikers, with the one exception being a washed up 65-year-old Demian Maia who probably had to ask for a spot to bend over and look for a takedown. So we should take Muhammad’s 91% takedown defense with a grain of salt, as it hasn’t been tested by many legitimate wrestlers. WIth that said, it’s held up when it’s needed to and we’re not saying his takedown defense is fraudulent, it’s just untested at the highest level. Brady should provide that test, as he has an impressive 60% takedown accuracy and has landed 14 takedowns in his five UFC fights, with at least two takedowns landed in four of those. However, Brady doesn’t need to get this fight to the ground to win, as he’s a more dangerous striker than Muhammad in addition to being a better grappler. The one area that Muhammad will have the advantage is cardio, so he’d be wise to try and push the pace and wear Brady out. Muhammad is also a pretty smart fighter, so we expect he’ll realize that and come in with that approach in mind. If Muhammad can keep the first two rounds close and win the third round, he has a chance to squeak out a decision win here, in what could end up being a close fight. With that said, we’re still betting that Brady does enough to get his hand raised in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is Brady’s ML at -140.
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DFS Implications:
Brady is coming off his lowest scoring DFS performance, but still scored 83 DraftKings points in the decision win. That’s the first time he’s scored below 99 points in five UFC appearances, and put up DK totals of 99 and 105 in his first two UFC decision wins. This sets up as a tough spot for Brady to completely dominate the fight on the mat for 15 minutes, as Muhammad has a 91% takedown defense and rarely gets controlled. With that said, Muhammad also hasn’t faced any good wrestlers in his career, so we shouldn’t automatically assume his wrestling defense is infallible. However, it does present a clear way that Brady struggles to score well in a decision, if this fight remains mostly on the feet. Neither guy lands a ton of volume and while Brady has never lost any of his 15 pro fights, Muhammad has only been finished once in 24 matches, so they’ve both been very durable. That makes a finish less likely for Brady and he hasn’t knocked anybody out since joining the UFC anyways. However, he does have solid power and Muhammad has been knocked out once before, so we’re not saying it can’t happen, it’s just unlikely. If Brady’s solid 87% takedown defense can hold up, he should at least get more opportunities to land a knockout blow than most fighters get against Muhammad, who’s generally looking to drag opponents to the mat. Brady is habitually popular in DFS, which lowers his tournament appeal in a tough matchup. The one concern is his cheap price tag, as even a decent scoring decision could be enough for him to crack winning lineups depending on how the rest of the slate goes. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Muhammad is coming off the best two scoring performance of his UFC career, although in fairness his last fight was his first fight to have additional rounds to work with as he won a five-round decision and scored 108 DraftKings points. Had that fight ended after three rounds, he would have scored just 75 DraftKings points. Prior to that, Muhammad scored a career best 132 points in a dominant grappling performance against a 38-year-old one-dimensional striker in Stephen Thompson and scored 132 points in a decision victory. Prior to that, Muhammad had only topped 95 DraftKings points once in the UFC, which came in his lone TKO win back in 2016 when he scored 103 in a late third round finish. While Muhammad has shown the ability to score decently in decisions, it’s important to keep in mind those have come in grappling-heavyv wins against opponents with poor wrestling. The last time we saw Muhammad win a decision without landing any takedowns, he scored just 57 points. He’s now facing the toughest wrestler of his career, who holds an 87% takedown defense and is also more dangerous on the feet. Muhammad will have a really tough time scoring well here without a finish and it’s hard to see him finishing Brady without some sort of freak injury occuring or Brady randomly slipping into a coma in round three. Muhammad’s relatively cheap price tag does keep him in the value play discussion, but he’ll likely need both a decision win and for most of the other dogs on the slate to fail to be useful. The odds imply Muhammad has a 43% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Manon Fiorot
5th UFC Fight (4-0)This matchup was originally booked back in September, but ended up getting pushed back to this card, so these two have had plenty of time to prepare for one another. Fiorot is coming off back-to-back decision wins after landing five straight knockouts prior to that. Both of her recent decisions came against extremely durable opponents in Mayra Bueno Silva and Jennifer Maia.
In her last fight, Fiorot lapped Jennifer Maia on the feet and also took her down twice in the second round. Maia also landed one of her four takedown attempts in the round, while the other two rounds remained standing. While Fiorot did a good job of landing volume, the fight never looked close to being stopped. Fiorot finished ahead in significant strikes 83-37 and in total strikes 101-56 as Fiorot cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Fiorot has six wins by KO and three decision victories. She’s won nine straight fights since losing a split decision in her 2018 pro debut. Most of her TKOs have come in the later rounds, with three in round two and two in round three, while she’s finished just one opponent in the first round. While she has less than four years of pro experience, Fiorot had extensive amateur experience as she won the 2017 IMMAF World Championships. She was notably competing at 135 lb at that time, before dropping down to 125 lb for her second pro fight, back in 2019.
Overall, Fiorot’s karate fighting style makes her a tough fighter to deal with as she does a masterful job of controlling distance. She also utilizes a destructive check right hook as she backs out of striking range against her opponents. She also offers explosive combinations of punches to close out fights. She’s a karate black belt, but just a BJJ purple belt. Fiorot has landed six takedowns on 12 attempts (50% accuracy) in her four UFC fights, with at least one in each match, while she’s been taken down once herself on six opponent attempts (83% defense).
Katlyn Chookagian
16th UFC Fight (11-4)Continuing to win close decisions, Chookagian is coming off a split-decision victory over Amanda Ribas. Stepping into her 16th UFC fight, all 11 of Chookagian’s UFC wins have gone the distance and the last time she finished an opponent was in 2016, just before she made her UFC debut. Her only two UFC fights to end early were a 2020 R3 TKO loss to Valentina Shevchenko and a 2020 R1 KO loss to Jessica Andrade. Those are also the only times she’s been finished in her career.
In her last fight, Chookagian got taken down three times on six attempts by Amanda Ribas, who was moving up from 115 lb. Ribas was able to control Chookagian for nearly five minutes in the match, while Chookagian failed to land either of her takedown attempts and had just six seconds of control time. Chookagian narrowly finished ahead in significant strikes 63-55, while Ribas led in total strikes 84-71. Despite taking Chookagian down and controlling her for nearly half a round in each of the first two rounds, two of the judges (Sal D'amato and Junichiro Kamijo shocker) still gave the fight to Chookagian, who went on to win a split decision. So if you see those two terrible judges on duty for this next fight, just assume they’ll give Chookagian another BS decision.
Now 18-4 as a pro, Chookagian has two wins by KO, both by knees early in her career (2014 & 2016), one win by submission, also early in her career (2015), and 15 decision wins. She has two KO/TKO losses, but has never been submitted. She also has two split decision losses. Of her 22 pro fights, 19 have made it to the third round, with 17 going the distance. Chookagian fought her first three UFC fights at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb in 2018.
Overall, Chookagian does a good job of utilizing her size and footwork to control the distance in fights and point her way to victory. She’s a BJJ brown belt and has so far shown a good submission defense when she does get taken down. She only has a 54% takedown defense, and has been taken down 21 times on 46 attempts in her 15 UFC fights. She’s only landed one takedown of her own in her last five fights and generally relies almost entirely on her striking.
UPDATE: Chookagian missed weight by 1.5 lb!
Fight Prediction:
Chookagian will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This sets up as a striking battle to help sort out the top of the women’s Flyweight division. While both women will occasionally mix in takedown attempts, neither offers much in terms of grappling. Chookagian generally relies on her size and reach to bully smaller opponents and grind out close decisions, but we expect Fiorot’s kicking game to nullify Chookagian’s reach advantage. While it would be surprising for this fight to end early, Chookagian did miss weight and who knows what the contributing factors to that were. And while Fiorot has looked like a point fighter in her last two matches, she did land five straight knockouts just before that. A TKO win, most likely in round two, for Fiorot certainly isn’t impossible, but we’ll say Fiorot wins a decision. We’re also never going to be shocked to see Chookagian steal a decision, as it happens all the time.
Our favorite bet here is Fiorot’s ML at -205.
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DFS Implications:
Fiorot is a high-volume striker, who averages the third most significant strikes landed on the slate at 6.60/min, while absorbing just 2.52/min and has landed at least one takedown in all four of her UFC fights, with two in each of her last two matches. She comes into this matchup on an impressive nine fight winning streak, with TKO wins in six of those, but has now fought to two straight decisions and has looked far less dangerous as she’s climbed the rankings and faced stiffer competition. She dominated her first two UFC opponents, finishing both of them in second round TKOs, and scored 120 and 100 DraftKings points in those wins and 146 and 116 points on FanDuel. However, she only scored 82 and 88 DraftKings points in her recent two decision wins and looks like she’ll have a hard time returning value at her high price tag without a finish. Working against her in that regard, Chookagian is a durable decision machine, who’s only been finished by Jessica Andrade and Valentina Shevchenko in her career, who basically finish everybody. So while Fiorot has a solid floor, she’ll likely have a tougher time hitting her ceiling here and will either need completely insane volume or a surprisingly grappling-heavy game plan to really score well in a decision. More likely she’ll score around 85 points in a decision win and we don't see her ending up in tournament winning lineups without a knockout. The odds imply she has a 67% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
The only time we’ve ever seen Chookagian score well in DFS was when she dominated Antonina Shevchenko on the mat for three rounds and scored 119 DraftKings points in a decision. She has averaged just 64 DraftKings points in her other 10 UFC wins, which all ended in decisions, failing to score more than 82 points in any of them. Fiorot’s karate style striking makes her a tough opponent to hit as she throws lots of kicks to control the distance. That will make it tough for Chookagian to put up a big striking total and Fiorot also has a solid 83% takedown defense. So while it’s always possible Chookagian steals a decision here, she would still likely need almost all the other dogs on the slate to lose to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply she has a 33% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Mateusz Gamrot
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Coming off an impressive five-round decision win over Arman Tsarukyan, Gamrot has won four straight since suffering the only loss of his career in a questionable split-decision defeat to Guram Kutateladze in his 2020 UFC debut. Gamrot bounced back from the loss with a R2 KO win over Scott Holtzman and then landed a 65 second R1 submission win against Jeremy Stephens. Then just before his recent win over Tsarukyan, Gamrot landed a second round TKO victory against Diego Ferreira for his third straight finish over a UFC veteran.
In his last fight, Gamrot got taken down in the first round, but quickly returned to his feet, and that was the only time he would get taken down in the fight on eight Tsarukyan attempts. The fight was filled with crazy scrambles on the mat as Gamrot landed 6 of his own 21 takedown attempts and finished ahead in control time 4:58-1:39. After Tsarukyan won the first two rounds on all three scorecards, Gamrot came back and took the last three rounds to win a unanimous 48-47 decision. Tsarukyan finished ahead in significant strikes 95-81 and in total strikes 110-108.
Now 21-1 as a pro, Gamrot has seven wins by KO, five by submission, and nine decisions. The only loss of his career came in a close/questionable split decision in his debut against Guram Kutateladze, in a fight that even Kutateladze said Gamrot won. All seven of Gamrots KO/TKO wins have occurred in the later rounds, with five ending in round two and two in round three. However, three of his five submission wins occurred in the first round, with another ending in round two, and the final coming in the fourth round of a 2018 KSW Lightweight Championship fight. A BJJ black belt, Gamrot won both the Lightweight and Featherweight KSW belts in back-to-back 2018 fights. He generally tends to wear on his opponents and 15 of his last 16 fights have made it out of the first round, with 10 of those seeing a third round, and seven going the distance.
Overall, Gamrot is a relentless wrestler and a decent striker. He’s the former KSW Lightweight and Featherweight Champion who came into the UFC with a perfect 17-0 record and a ton of experience under his belt. He’s gone 18 for 51 (35.3% accuracy) on his takedown attempts so far in his five UFC fights and is constantly looking to get his opponents to the mat. He’s only been taken down once on 10 attempts by his opponents and owns a solid 90% takedown defense. He’s not a guy who generally puts up big striking totals, as he averages just 3.54 SSL/min and just 3.19 SSA/min.
Beneil Dariush
21st UFC Fight (15-4-1)Dariush had been scheduled to faceIslam Makhachev back in February, but was forced to withdraw due to an ankle injury and now hasn’t fought in 17 months since winning a three-round decision over Tony Ferguson. Just prior to that, he won another grappling-heavy decision that time against Diego Ferreira, and Dariush has won seven straight. Prior to his recent pair of decision wins, he landed four straight finishes in the first two rounds, after winning another decision against a grappler in Thiago Moises to begin his current winning streak. His last loss was a 42 second R1 KO against Alexander Hernandez in 2018. Dariush has shown a pattern of going to decisions against other grapplers, while his fights against strikers tend to end early. Part of that can be attributed to the idea that Dariush seems to enjoy beating his opponents at their own game. So when he faces a striker he tends to brawl more, but when he faces a grappler he tries to prove that he can out grapple them.
In his last fight, Dariush was able to control Ferguson on the mat for basically the entire match. Dariush took him down 90 seconds in and Ferguson was never able to get back up. Dariush quickly returned the fight to the ground in round two and patiently waited on Ferguson to give up on a half-hearted choke attempt before moving him away from the cage and continuing to go to work on the mat. Dariush attempted to lock up a heel hook that appeared to be doing some damage as Ferguson grimaced in pain, but Ferguson’s next-level toughness allowed him to stay in the fight. Round three was rinse and repeat for Dariush as he took the fight back to the mat 30 seconds in and again spent the entire round in control. The fight ended with Dariush ahead 23-15 in significant strikes and 76-37 in total strikes, while he landed three of his six takedown attempts and led in control time 12:15-0:05. Ferguson has notably lost five straight fights, with three of those losses coming early.
Now 21-4-1 as a pro, Dariush has five wins by KO, eight submissions, and eight decision victories. All of his KO wins came in six minutes or less, with three in round one and two in the first 60 seconds of round two. All eight of his submission victories have also come in the first two rounds, with five in round one and three in round two. He’s also been knocked out three times (R1 2018, R2 2017 & R1 2014) and has one submission loss (R2 2016). All 17 of his fights to end early have ended in the first two rounds.
Overall, Dariush is a BJJ and Muay Thai black belt who is a well rounded fighter that can dominate fights both on the feet and the mat. He appears supremely confident in his abilities, which has led to finishes in 13 of his 21 pro wins. However, his aggressive fighting style has also gotten him into trouble at times, as all four of his losses have also come early. He’s never been a high-volume guy, as he averages 3.80 SSL/min and 2.58 SSA/min, while tacking on 2.1 TDL/15 min. He’s never landed more than 81 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 84. Interestingly, three of the last six decisions he’s been to have been split/majority (2-0-1). Dariush has struggled on the scale at times, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10” but Dariush will have a 2” reach advantage. Gamrot is two years younger than the 33-year-old Dariush.
This is a really interesting matchup as both of these two are BJJ black belts and high-level grapplers who are trying to make their case to be the next top contender in the Lightweight division. That should give them each a little extra motivation to put on an exciting performance, but also adds to the pressure of simply getting a win. That has the potential to make it somewhat of a higher variance spot as we could see them focussed more on simply not losing or on making a statement win with a finish and it’s hard to know which we’ll get. Dariush is the more reckless of the two, with all four of his career losses coming early, all in the first two rounds, while Gamrot has never been finished and arguably should still be undefeated. They both have really solid takedown defenses, with Gamrot at 90% and Dariush at 81%. If the fight remains standing, both guys are capable of knocking out the other, but we’ll give the edge to the younger, more active, and more durable Gamrot to find a second round knockout. If the fight makes it past the second round, look for it to end in a close decision that could go either way, however, Gamrot is our official pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Doesn't Start R3” at +186.
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DFS Implications:
Gamrot has been a consistently solid DFS contributor, scoring 97-108 DraftKings points in all four of his UFC wins. Just keep in mind three of those came early and the other was in a five round fight. In the split-decision loss in his UFC debut, he scored 55 points, which would have been good for 85 had it gone his way, but still not quite enough to return value at his expensive price tag. While he averages a ridiculous 13.8 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, he only lands 35% of those and will now be going up against the solid 81% defense of Beneil Dariush. No one has ever taken Dariush down more than once in 20 UFC fights and he’s also a BJJ black belt and former jiu-jitsu champion. So if Gamrot is going to put up a big score here, it will likely need to be in a finish. Working in his favor, Dariush has been finished in the first two rounds in all four of his pro losses, so there’s a decent shot Gamrot can get him out of there early. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Dariush has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his 15 UFC wins, scoring 92 or more in seven straight fights. He’s coming off a pair of grappling-heavy decision wins that scored 92 and 95 points, and also totaled 106 points in his third most recent decision through a large amount of grappling. However, when he’s unable to find a finish or completely dominate opponents on the mat, he scored just 60, 78 and 76 in his other three UFC decision wins. It’s hard to see him completely controlling Gamrot (90% takedown defense) in this fight, leaving Dariush more reliant on handing Gamrot the first early loss of his career to really score well. With that said, at Dariush’s cheap price tag he could still sneak into winning lineups with just an average score if only a couple of other dogs on the slate win, but that requires a lot of help. We’re typically huge proponents of Dariush in DFS, but this looks like the toughest matchup of his career and a tough spot for him to both win and score well. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Petr Yan
11th UFC Fight (8-2)Looking to bounce back from a disappointing five-round split decision loss in his rematch against Aljamain Sterling, Yan has been in four straight five-round fights but will now be preparing for a three-round match for the first time since 2019. After winning the vacant Bantamweight belt against Jose Aldo in July 2020, Yan relinquished it in his first title defense when he was notoriously disqualified for landing a blatantly illegal knee against Aljamain Sterling in March 2021. The two were scheduled for a rematch in October 2021, but Sterling withdrew citing a neck injury, so Yan instead fought Cory Sandhagen for the interim title, who he defeated in a five-round decision.
In his last fight, Sterling spent the first round circling away from contact along the outside of the Octagon as Yan pressed forward. That round was tough to score as so little happened and unsurprisingly the judges were split on who won it. Sterling then dominated the second round as he took Yan down and controlled him for nearly four minutes as he hunted for a rear-naked choke and landed ground and pound. Round three played out similarly, with Sterling landing another takedown with over three and a half minutes of control time, although he wasn’t able to land any ground and pound. The tide completely turned in round four as Yan took control, led in striking, stuffed all four of Sterling’s takedowns in the round, and had nearly four minutes of control time as he controlled Sterling on the mat following a failed Sterling takedown attempt. That momentum carried into round five, as Yan stuffed all 10 of Sterling’s final takedown attempts, while also leading in striking and control time. With rounds two and three clearly belonging to Sterling and rounds four and five obviously being won by Yan, the only debate was who won round one and whether or not Sterling did enough in round two to score a 10-8. None of the judges thought he did and we agree with that assessment, so it really just came down to round one, which two of the judges gave to Sterling. Ultimately the entire fight came down to how the swing judge ruled a razor close first round and the fight couldn’t have been any closer. It ended with Yan ahead 63-62 in significant strikes and 139-91 in total strikes. Sterling landed just 2 of his 22 takedown attempts, but finished ahead in control time 8:31-5:52.
Now 16-3 as a pro, Yan has seven wins by KO, one by submission and eight decisions. His lone submission win came in a R1 guillotine in his third pro fight back in 2015, while two of his KO wins ended in round one, one ended in round two, three ended in round three, and the other came in round five. His last three knockouts all came in the later rounds. Prior to his split-decision and DQ losses to Sterling, Yan’s only other career defeat occurred prior to joining the UFC in a 2016 five-round split decision against Magomed Magomedov. To his credit, Yan avenged the loss a year later in another five-round decision win against Magomedov. Yan generally wears on his opponents as fights go on and 15 of his 19 career fights have seen the third round. Even his lone second round TKO came following the second round as his opponent’s corner threw in the towel. After landing a first round knockout in his 2018 UFC debut, Yan’s last nine fights have all seen the second round, with eight making it to round three, and his last four matches all going into the championship rounds, with three making it to round five and his last two going the distance. Five of his 10 UFC fights have ended in decisions (4-1), four ended in knockouts (4-0), and one ended in a DQ just as he appeared on the verge of landing a knockout. Also worth pointing out, Yan’s first round finish in his UFC debut was against Teruto Ishihara, who was in the midst of a five fight losing streak.
Overall, Yan is a very patient fighter and universally regarded as a slow starter. It’s actually become illegal to mention Yan without first prefacing your statement by describing him as a slow starter. He’s a calculated striker who wears on his opponents with his crisp, powerful striking and has elite defensive wrestling with an impressive 90% takedown defense. He effectively utilizes a high guard to avoid absorbing many clean shots and has a solid 61% striking defense. He does a great job of catching kicks and mixing in trips to ground his opponents, although he’s only looking for ground and pound on the mat and would generally prefer to keep fights standing. His patient approach often results in him trailing in striking early on in fights, and he’s actually been outlanded overall in significant strikes in three of his last six fights. He started his MMA training in boxing and Taekwondo at a young age but is just a BJJ blue belt.
Sean O'Malley
10th UFC Fight (7-1, NC)O'Malley is fresh off a disappointing No Contest against Pedro Munhoz, who came in having lost two straight decisions and four of his last five fights. Amazingly, the No Contest still propelled O'Malley from fighting unranked opponents just before facing Munhoz to now the top Bantamweight contender in his upcoming match. Prior to the Munhoz fight, O'Malley had six straight fights in KO/TKOs (5-1), with his only UFC loss resulting from the leg injury he suffered against Marlon Vera.
In his last fight, O'Malley went up against a barrage of leg kicks from Pedro Munhoz, which put O'Malley’s previously twice injured leg to the test. Literally 100% of Munhoz’s 26 significant strikes landed were leg kicks and O'Malley was able to check and absorb them all without reinjuring his leg. Which felt like the test we were all waiting to see with O'Malley following the 2020 injury/loss against Vera. O'Malley appeared primarily focussed on defending the kicks of Munhoz and never got a ton of his own offense going as he lost the first round on two of the three judges’ scorecards. Midway through round two, O'Malley pushed off Munhoz’s face with his fingers straight up in the air, but Munhoz claimed he got poked in the eye and couldn’t see. After trying to give him time to recover, Munhoz continued to insist he’d been blinded and the ref was forced to stop the fight, deeming it a No Contest. The “poke” didn’t seem bad at all, but who really knows other than Munhoz and he backed up his claim with a doctor’s note following the match. The fight fizzled out with Munhoz ahead 26-25 in striking, with no takedowns attempted.
Now 15-1 as a pro, O'Malley has 11 wins by KO, one by submission, and three decisions. His lone submission win came in the first round of his third pro fight back in 2015, while six of his knockout wins have occurred in round one, one ended in round two, and two came in round three. While five of O’Malley’s seven UFC wins have come by knockout, he’s never knocked out a UFC opponent that hadn’t previously been knocked out in his career. In his 2017 UFC debut, he faced Terrion Ware, who’s never been knocked out and O'Malley won a decision. Then he faced another opponent who’s never been knocked out in Andre Soukhamthath and won another decision. The only other two opponents O'Malley has faced in the UFC who have never been knocked out were Marlon Vera and Pedro Munhoz and those fights both fizzled out with O'Malley suffering a R1 TKO loss to Vera and then the most recent No Contest against Munhoz. So while O'Malley has shown he can style on lower-level, less durable opponents, he’s yet to hand anyone the first KO loss of their career since joining the UFC. With that said, the loss to Vera remains O'Malley’s only loss in his career and his right leg has so far been the least durable part about him as he’s already injured it twice in the UFC.
Overall, O'Malley is an exciting striker who averages the highest number of significant strikes landed on the slate at 7.75/min. He has yet to spend much time on the mat in the UFC, as he hasn’t even attempted a takedown since his UFC debut, where he landed three of his six attempts against Terrion Ware, but finished with just 27 seconds of control time. While he was taken down four times in his second UFC fight, largely due to getting injured, we’ve seen one total takedown landed in his last seven fights, which was landed by Thomas Almeida. Only two of O'Malley’s last seven opponents even tried to take him down—Almeida who landed one of his two attempts and Paiva and failed to land either of his two attempts. While it’s rare to see O'Malley grapple in the UFC, he is a BJJ brown belt and has competed in grappling tournaments in the past.
Fight Prediction:
O'Malley will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. He’s also a year and a half younger than the 29-year-old Yan.
Both of these two prefer to keep fights standing and we expect this to play out as a striking battle with neither guy looking for many if any takedowns. O'Malley is a tall, rangy fighter who will want to keep the fight at distance to utilize his reach and kicks, while we expect Yan to march him down and try to close the distance. The larger Octagon should benefit O'Malley more in that regard and his movement and footwork will be essential for his chances of pulling off the unlikely upset. Yan is the more durable, powerful, and proven of the two and just needs to avoid getting behind early and outpointed from distance. Yan tends to get stronger as fights go on, while we’ve seen O’Malley struggle with forward pressure from his opponents at times in the past. Look for O’Malley to potentially take an early striking lead but wilt from the pressure of Yan as the fight goes on. While the most likely outcome is for Yan to win a decision, he also has a decent shot at landing a late knockout, most likely in round three. O’Malley’s lone path to victory appears to be to jump ahead to an early striking lead and then steal one of the later rounds as he circles away from Yan to win a close, potentially split, decision. However, we don’t see that happening, and we’ll take Yan by R3 KO or decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Yan R2 or R3 KO” at +600.
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DFS Implications:
Yan has competed in four straight five-round fights, so his recent scoring is inflated when it comes to evaluating his potential in a three-round match. In his six UFC wins in three-round fights, he’s averaged 99 DraftKings points. However, in those three decision victories he averaged just 79 points, with amazingly consistent totals of 79, 79, and 78 DraftKings points. In his three KO wins in three-round matches, his average jumps to an impressive 120 DraftKings points, with 111 or more points in all of those, despite two of them coming in the later rounds. While he’s not a huge volume guy, averaging 5.45 SSL/min, he will mix in trips to land takedowns and has a knack for knockdowns, landing 10 in his 10 UFC fights. We’ve seen those knockdowns come in clusters, with two or more in three of his six three-round matches, and he notably knocked an aging Urijah Faber down three times on his way to an early third round KO win in 2019, in what was Yan’s last three-round match. Working against Yan here, O’Malley has never been knocked down in his UFC career, but he’s also never faced anyone like Yan. Chasing multi-knockdown performances is a risky game however, and if we reduce Yan’s knockdowns to just one in that Faber fight, Yan would have scored just 91 DraftKings points. In fairness, the finish did come at the start of round three, which is basically the worst case scenario. Regardless, that just shows he has the ability to score well in a late finish through knockdowns, but also can easily fail to return value when he doesn’t land multiple knockdowns and find a finish. While Yan is universally regarded as a slow starter, he’s also a smart fighter and had the luxury of feeling out his opponents early in his recent string of five-round fights. It would make sense for him to try and start a little faster here as he moves back into the three-round format and considering he lost his last title fight because of the first round. Nevertheless, we don’t expect him to explode out of the gates and look like a completely different fighter. The odds imply he has a 70% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
O’Malley has never been an underdog in any of his previous nine UFC fights and has been a massive favorite in seven straight matches, with odds of -300 or more in all of those. Now he checks in as a +220 underdog and is the second cheapest fighter on the slate. It will be interesting to see how the field handles that, but we’re expecting him to be the most popular three-round dog by a wide margin, despite facing the toughest opponent of his career. Over his last five fights, his ownership has checked in at an average of 53% and even in his recent tough matchup he was still 44% owned. While O’Malley has averaged 105 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, he scored just 64 points in his last decision win, which was all the way back in 2018. In fairness, he got hurt in that fight and scored 102 points in a decision in his UFC debut, which was the only time we’ve seen him attempt any takedowns in the UFC. In his recent No Contest, O’Malley was insanely on pace to score just 48 DraftKings points if the fight had gone the distance, as he was never able to get anything going in the match. So unless O’Malley looks exponentially better here against a much, much tougher opponent, there’s a good chance he’ll once again struggle to score well unless he’s able to hand Yan the first early loss of his career. He’s not fighting Kris Moutinho here, and Yan only averages 3.88 SSA/min and has an elite 90% takedown defense even if O’Malley does try a surprise takedown. When you combine O’Malley’s high ownership and low scoring potential, this a dream fade spot in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 30% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Aljamain Sterling
17th UFC Fight (13-3)After Sterling’s first title fight against Petr Yan ended in the notorious illegal knee disqualification for Yan in a fight that Yan was on the cusp of winning, their recent rematch ended in a close split decision win for Sterling. Following his DQ win in the first matchup, Sterling opted to undergo neck surgery to repair nerve damage that had been bothering him for years. The recovery process from the surgery forced a 13 month gap between the two title fights and Sterling has only fought once in the last year and a half.
Prior to the pair of title fights against Yan, Sterling landed the only first round victory of his 16 fight UFC career when he submitted Cory Sandhagen in just 88 seconds via rear-naked choke. Sandhagen came into that fight undefeated in the UFC and on a seven fight win streak. That’s also Sterling’s only finish of any kind in his last five fights dating back to a 2018 second round submission win over Cody Stamann. The only other time one of Sterling’s UFC fights ended in the first round was in 2017 when Marlon Moraes knocked him out in just 67 seconds. His other 14 UFC matches have all seen the second round, with 12 making it to round three, and nine going the distance. Interestingly, three of his last eight decisions have been split (1-2). The 2017 loss to Moraes is the only time Sterling has been defeated in his last 10 fights dating back to 2017 and he’s currently on a seven fight winning streak. Leading up to his win over Sandhagen, Sterling defeated a tough run of opponents in Brett Johns, Cody Stamann, Jimmie Rivera, and Pedro Munhoz.
Johns is a really tough wrestler and entered that matchup 15-0, but Sterling won a lopsided unanimous 30-27 decision. Stamann, another tough wrestler, came into their fight on a 10 fight winning streak and 3-0 in the UFC, but submitted him in the second round. Rivera had won 21 of his previous 22 fights at the time and despite going 0 for 7 on takedowns against Rivera’s elite 92% takedown defense, Sterling easily cruised to another unanimous 30-27 decision. Munhoz’s stock was at an all time high when he faced Sterling after he had just landed back-to-back first round knockouts against Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway and defeated Brett Johns in a decision. While Sterling failed to land any of his seven takedown attempts against the really solid 80% takedown defense of Munhoz, he impressively outlanded Munhoz 174-105 in significant strikes in a high-paced brawling three round decision, which Sterling won unanimously 30-27.
In his last fight, Sterling spent the first round circling away from contact along the outside of the Octagon as Yan pressed forward. That round was tough to score as so little happened and unsurprisingly the judges were split on who won it. Sterling then dominated the second round as he took Yan down and controlled him for nearly four minutes as he hunted for a rear-naked choke and landed ground and pound. Round three played out similarly, with Sterling landing another takedown with over three and a half minutes of control time, although he wasn’t able to land any ground and pound. The tide completely turned in round four as Yan took control, led in striking, stuffed all four of Sterling’s takedowns in the round, and had nearly four minutes of control time as he controlled Sterling on the mat following a failed Sterling takedown attempt. That momentum carried into round five, as Yan stuffed all 10 of Sterling’s final takedown attempts, while also leading in striking and control time. With rounds two and three clearly belonging to Sterling and rounds four and five obviously being won by Yan, the only debate was who won round one and whether or not Sterling did enough in round two to score a 10-8. None of the judges thought he did and we agree with that assessment, so it really just came down to round one, which two of the judges gave to Sterling. Ultimately the entire fight came down to how the swing judge ruled a razor close first round and the fight couldn’t have been any closer. It ended with Yan ahead 63-62 in significant strikes and 139-91 in total strikes. Sterling landed just 2 of his 22 takedown attempts, but finished ahead in control time 8:31-5:52.
Now 21-3 as a pro, Sterling has two wins by TKO (R1 2011 & R3 2014), eight by submission, and 10 decision victories. Six of his eight submission wins occurred in 2015 or earlier and he only has two submissions in his last 12 fights (R1 2020 & R2 2018). Three of his career submission wins ended in round one, two came in round two, and the other two occurred in round three. The only time Sterling has been finished in 22 pro fights was when Marlon Moraes knocked him out cold with a perfect knee to his chin as Sterling shot in for a reckless takedown a minute into their 2017 match. His other two career losses were a pair of split decisions against Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
This will be the 7th five-round fight of Sterling’s career and third in the UFC. Just prior to joining the UFC in 2014, Sterling had four straight fights scheduled to go five rounds, however, only one of those made it past the third round, which was a 2011 decision win in his 5th fight the year he turned pro. He landed three straight submissions spread across the first three rounds in his next three five-round fights leading up to his UFC debut. His two UFC five-round fights were his recent two matches against Yan and Sterling slowed down late in both of those. Sterling lost round three and was losing round four prior to the illegal knee the first time they fought, and lost both rounds four and five in the rematch. So overall, Sterling has yet to win a championship round in the UFC, but did squeak out wins in both of those fights.
Overall, Sterling is a former NCAA DIII college wrestler, a BJJ black belt, and overall a very dangerous grappler but he has just a 21.6% takedown accuracy as he’s only landed 24 of his 111 takedown attempts in his 16 UFC fights. That accuracy has actually declined as his career has progressed and he’s faced tougher competition. In the first eight fights of Sterling’s career, he landed 16 takedowns on 39 attempts (41% accuracy), while in his most recent eight fights he landed just 8 of his 72 attempts (11.1% accuracy). The only time Sterling has ever landed more than three takedowns in a fight was in his second UFC match where he landed four. He’s landed two or fewer takedowns in 12 of his last 14 fights and has amazingly only landed three of his last 54 attempts (5.6% accuracy) in his last five matches. Now he faces an opponent with a rock solid 86% takedown defense, which isn’t encouraging for his chances of landing many takedowns. On the other side of the grappling equation, Sterling has just a 41.2% takedown defense, as he’s been taken down 20 times on 34 opponent attempts. Amazingly, the last 10 attempts against him were all successful. Sterling’s striking numbers are actually more impressive than his grappling stats, as he’s averaged 4.56 SSL/min and just 2.24 SSA/min. He’s finished ahead in significant strikes in 14 of his 16 UFC fights, while he only trailed by one and four significant strikes respectively in his other two matches. He’s got good range and movement and will mix in kicks while also utilizing his lengthy reach.
TJ Dillashaw
18th UFC Fight (13-4)Fifteen months removed from a close/questionable split-decision win over Cory Sandhagen, Dillashaw is coming off knee surgery after he tore up his knee in the first round of that fight. Prior to that win, Dillashaw was suspended for two years when he tested positive for recombinant human erythropoietin (EPO) in early 2019. Now 36 years old, Dillashaw has only fought once since January 2019, when he attempted to drop down to 125 lb and got knocked out by Henry Cejudo 32 seconds into round one. That’s the only time he’s ever competed down at Flyweight, and he returned to 135 lb following his suspension. That leaves him with just one win since he knocked Cody Garbrandt out for the second time back in 2018.
Dillashaw originally won the UFC Bantamweight belt back in 2014 against Renan Barao and then successfully defended it twice, with a win over Joe Soto and then in a rematch against Barao. All three of those fights ended with late KOs, with the first two ending in the 5th round and the other occurring in found four. However, in his fourth UFC title fight Dillashaw lost a split decision to Dominick Cruz in 2016. After losing the belt, Dillashaw won a pair of decisions against Raphael Assuncao and John Lineker. While Dillashaw was working his way back into contention, Cruz lost the belt to Cody Garbrandt in 2016, so while Dillashaw was given an opportunity to win back the belt following the pair of decision wins, it would not come in a rematch against Cruz. Instead the Garbrandt/Dillashaw feud would play out on the biggest stage and Dillashaw reclaimed the belt with a second round KO victory in November 2017. They ran it back nine months later and Dillashaw won even faster, knocking out Garbrandt in the first round of the rematch in August 2018. Following the pair of wins against Garbrandt is when Dillashaw tried moving down to 125 lb and got knocked out by Cejudo and then suspended.
In his last fight, Dillashaw blew out his knee late in the first round as he tried to fight out of a leg lock, but was able to gut through the injury. However, it’s hard to know the exact impact it had on the fight and how much it hindered Dillashaw’s ability to execute his gameplan. Sandhagen had a strong second round following the injury and split Dillashaw open in a terrible spot on the side of his eye. The cut was bad enough that action was paused for the doctor to check it out, but it was allowed to continue and the rest of the rounds were close. Dillashaw consistently looked for takedowns throughout the fights, but was only able to land 2 of his 19 attempts, but did finish with 8:22 in control time as he took Sandhagen’s back at multiple points on the feet. However, Dillashaw wasn’t able to do much with either of his takedowns or all of his control time, which left the judging up for interpretation. The fight was close, but Sandhagen finished ahead 128-110 in significant strikes and 171-169 in total strikes, and appeared to be the one doing more damage as the fight ended with Dillashaw bloodied and battered and Sandhagen essentially looking the same as when he entered.
Now 17-4 as a pro, Dillashaw has eight wins by KO, three submissions, and six decision victories. All three of those submissions came in the first round, but two were in his first three pro fights in 2010 and the other was back in 2012. His last seven finishes have all been by KO. Only two of his career knockouts occurred in the first round, with two more ending in round two, one in round three, another in round four, and two in round five. He’s also been knocked out twice, initially in the first round of the Ultimate Fighter Finale against John Dodson in his 2011 UFC debut and then more recently by Henry Cejudo in the first round of Dillashaw’s failed trip down to 125 lb in 2019. His other two career losses both ended in split-decisions, with a 2013 three-round loss to Raphael Assuncao and a 2016 five-round loss to Dominick Cruz for the Bantamweight belt. While two of Dillashaw’s last three fights have ended in the first round, his other 10 most recent fights all saw the second round with nine making it to R3 and five going to the championship rounds. So historically, his fights typically either end really quickly or really late and only 2 of his 21 fights have ended in round two and only one has ended in round three. Three of his eight career decisions have been split (1-2), including the last two five-round decisions he’s been to (1-1).
This will be the 9th five-round fight of Dillashaw’s career, and he has gone 6-2 in his previous eight and 6-1 at 135 lb. He landed three straight championship round knockouts in his first three UFC five-round fights in 2014 and 2015. Then he lost a split-decision to Cruz, before later knocking Cody Garbrandt out in the first two rounds in back-to-back fights in 2017 and 2018. Then he foolishly tried to move down to 125 lb to capture a second title and got knocked out in 32 seconds by Cejudo, leading up to his recent split decision win over Sandhagen. So six of his eight five-round fights have ended in knockouts (5-1), while the other two ended in split decisions (1-1).
Overall, Dillashaw is a Muay Thai black belt, a BJJ purple belt, and a former NCAA DI college wrestler, so overall he’s pretty well rounded. He’s landed 23 takedowns on 75 attempts (30.7% accuracy) in 17 UFC fights, while only getting taken down 5 times on 37 opponent attempts (86.5% defense). Ten of Dillashaw’s opponents have tried to take him down but only two have been successful—John Lineker who landed one of his two attempts but still lost a 2016 three-round decision to Dillashaw and Dominick Cruz who landed 4 of his 11 attempts and a five-round split decision over Dillashaw for the Bantamweight belt in 2016. Dillashaw’s other eight opponents who tried to take him down combined to 0 for 24 on their attempts and Cruz was notably only able to control Dillashaw for a total of 33 seconds in their fight, despite landing four takedowns. Lineker similarly had just 18 seconds of control time and amazingly Dillashaw has only been controlled for 85 seconds in his 212 minutes of UFC Octagon time (0.67%). He averages 5.26 SSL/min and 3.27 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10” but Sterling will have a 4” reach advantage and is three years younger than the 36-year-old Dillashaw.
While Dillashaw is littered with red flags considering he’s 36 years old, hasn’t fought in 15 months, is coming off knee surgery, and was suspended for two years prior to his last fight, this actually sets up as a really close fight on paper. Both fighters are former college wrestlers, but they each struggle with their takedown accuracy (21% for Sterling vs. 30% for Dillashaw). While Sterling is the much more dangerous submission threat on the mat, Dillashaw has a significantly better takedown defense (86% vs. 41%) and somehow has only been controlled for 85 seconds in 17 UFC fights (0.67% of the time). He’s also never been submitted and none of that bodes well for Sterling’s chances of getting this fight to the ground and/or locking up a submission. Of course it’s always possible he backpacks him on the feet or rolls for a leg lock, just keep in mind Sterling only has two submissions in his last 12 fights despite his grappling skills. Dillashaw may also be less likely to want to take Sterling down based on his submission skills.
When you combine that with Dillashaw’s elite defensive wrestling, this could play out mostly as a striking battle despite the fact that these two combined to attempt 41 takedowns (only landing four) in their most recent fights, both of which ended in five-round split decisions. Two advantages Dillashaw will have in this matchup are cardio and experience in UFC five-round fights. Sterling has slowed down in the championship rounds in both of his UFC five-round fights, losing all three of those rounds he’s been part of. That leaves him more reliant on winning the first three rounds or finding a submission over that stretch to secure a win, although it’s also possible he’s improved his cardio some and he talked about how he started running for the first time in preparation for this fight. Nevertheless, we’ll believe his cardio has improved when we see it and we like Dillashaw to take over in the final two rounds of this fight if it makes it that far. A fourth or fifth round KO win for Dillashaw are both possible, but it’s still more likely this fight goes the distance and ends in a close, potential split, decision. There’s a lot of uncertainty on Dillashaw’s side of things and it’s tough to know how he’ll look following knee surgery, but based on his defensive wrestling and cardio advantage we’re taking him to win with either a late round knockout or in a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -180.
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DFS Implications:
Sterling has been a consistent albeit unspectacular DFS contributor who has shown a consistent floor but an unspectacular ceiling. He’s only topped 104 DraftKings points once in his career, which was when he landed a third round TKO win in his second UFC fight that was good for 112 points. His recent five-round decision win over Yan scored just 86 DraftKings points and 69 points on FanDuel after he put up 99 points on both sites in a R4 DQ win just before that. He amazingly landed just 3 of his 39 takedown attempts in those two fights and has just a 21.6% career takedown accuracy. Now he’s facing the elite 86% takedown defense of Dillashaw, who somehow has only been controlled for a total of 85 seconds in 17 UFC fights. Dillashaw is a former DI college wrestler, and Sterling may be forced to rely on his striking here unless he can take Dillashaw’s back on the feet or dive for a leg lock. Working in Sterling’s favor, Dillashaw is 36 years old, coming off knee surgery, and has only fought once since 2019 after he was suspended two years for PEDs. So there is tons of uncertainty in this matchup as Dillashaw comes in with multiple red flags. That gives us some reason for optimism in Sterling, but on paper this looks like a tough matchup for him to get much going with his grappling and Dillashaw has also never been submitted in his career. It is possible that this turns into a high-volume striking battle, so Sterling can still score decently even if he can’t get it to the ground, but he’s unlikely to put up a huge score through striking alone and tends to slow down in the championship rounds. We’re treating him as a high floor, lower ceiling play, who will likely need either a finish or a high-volume decision win to put up a big score. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Dillashaw has averaged 110 DraftKings points in his 13 UFC wins, scoring 99 or more in 12 of those, with the one exception coming in a three-round decision against a low-volume counter puncher in Raphael Assuncao. Seven of those victories ended in knockouts, but he’s also shown the ability to score well in decisions through a combination of striking and grappling, as he put up 111 DraftKings points in his recent five-round decision win over Cory Sandhagen and even hit the century mark in three of his previous four three-round decision wins. He shot for a career high 19 takedown attempts in that last match, but was only able to land two of those and has just a 30.7% career takedown accuracy. He had previously never attempted more than eight takedowns in a fight for what it’s worth. He’ll also now be facing a dangerous BJJ black belt in Sterling, so it’s unlikely Dillashaw will be quite as eager to get the fight to the mat. That potentially limits his upside some, but at his cheaper price tag there’s still a really good chance a decision win is enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups even if the fight stays standing. He also has the potential to land a late knockout, something he’s done in three of his six wins in previous UFC five-round fights, and Sterling showed a questionable gas tank down the stretch of his last two fights. Dillashaw’s elite 86% takedown defense against the struggling 21% takedown accuracy of Sterling should allow Dillashaw to avoid getting controlled, something he’s been freakishly good at throughout his career, with just 85 seconds of control time against him in 212 minutes of Octagon time. Just keep in mind Dillashaw is 36 years old, coming off knee surgery, has only fought once since 2019 which was 15 months ago, and was suspended for two years for PEDs prior to his last matchup. He’s riddled with red flags and there’s always a chance he’s gone off a cliff at this stage of his career, so we hesitate to call him a safe play, but as long as he doesn’t succumb to the first submission loss of his career, he has both a high floor and a high ceiling at a cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Islam Makhachev
13th UFC Fight (11-1)Stepping into the first title fight of his UFC career, Makhachev has won 10 straight fights, finishing his last four opponents. While Makhachev’s last two wins weren’t against highly ranked opponents, that can be attributed to the fact that his original two opponents (RDA and Beneil Dariush) both dropped out and Dan Hooker and Bobby Green filled the slots. Makhachev finished both of those replacements in the first round, after submitting Thiago Moises in the fourth round just before that in the first five-round fight of Makhachev’s career. Makhachev also has wins over other grapplers in Davi Ramos, Arman Tsarukyan, and Nik Lentz on his record, all of which ended in three round decisions. So he’s shown a pattern of going longer in fights against fellow grapplers, while making shorter work of guys that are predominantly strikers, which makes sense.
In his last fight, Makhachev had been scheduled to face Beneil Dariush, but Dariush withdrew due to an injury and Bobby Green was announced as the replacement on short notice. Makhachev took Green down just under two minutes into the first round and worked his way to full mount. Green rolled to his back and covered up and Makhachev forced a stoppage through ground and pound. That was Makhachev’s first KO/TKO win since 2018 and only his second since 2011.
Now 22-1 as a pro, Makhachev has four wins by KO/TKO, 10 by submission, and eight decisions. All four of his career knockouts occurred in the first round, although two of those were in his first three pro fights back in 2011 and 10 of his last 12 finishes have come by submission. Five of his submission wins came in round one, two ended in round two, two more occurred in round three, and one ended in round four. The only loss of his career occurred in a 2015 R1 TKO in his second UFC fight. Makhachev’s last 11 fights have all either ended in the first round or seen a third round.
This will be the third five-round fight of Makhachev’s career. The first ended in a 2021 fourth round submission win over BJJ black belt Thiago Moises. Makhachev was in no rush to finish the fight, and only attempted one takedown in the first two rounds, which he landed late in round one. Makhachev’s only other five-round fight was his recent R1 TKO win over late replacement Bobby Green, so only once in his career has Makhachev been to a fourth round and he’s never seen round five.
Overall, Makhachev is an elite grappler and Combat Sambo world champion who holds the all-time UFC record for the fewest significant strikes absorbed at 0.84 per minute. His 88% career takedown defense is also exceptional as he’s only been taken down twice in his career—once by Thiago Moises and another time by Arman Tsarukyan. Makhachev has the luxury of having Khabib in his corner, who notably went the distance in his first title fight before rattling off three straight finishes in his three defenses.
Charles Oliveira
31st UFC Fight (21-8, NC)Fresh off the Arizona weigh-in debacle, Oliveira lost his belt on the scale in a bizarre turn of events that had many pointing to a faulty hotel scale (hopefully Charles has since invested in his own portable scale). Despite missing weight by a half pound and being stripped of his belt, Oliveira kept himself in the title picture with a first round submission win over Justin Gaethje. That’s notably Oliveira’s only first round finish in his last five fights, despite 30 of his 33 career wins coming early. Prior to that fiasco, Oliveira won the vacant Lightweight belt with an early R2 TKO against Michael Chandler in 2021 and then successfully defended it with a third round submission win over Dustin Poirier in his second most recent fight.
In his last fight, we didn’t see much of a feeling out process as both guys went to work early, with Oliveira getting knocked to his back from a Gaethje uppercut just over 30 seconds in. However, he also appeared to be welcoming Gaethje to the mat who wanted no part of it and allowed him to return to his feet. Oliveira continued to try and get the fight to the ground without actually attempting a takedown, as he once again spilled to his back only to be stood back up and then tried pulling guard soon after. None of those tactics were successful, but Oliveira dropped Gaethje with a big right hand midway through the round and then immediately took his back on the mat and worked his way to a rear-naked choke finish. The fight ended with Oliveira ahead 30-21 in significant strikes and 33-21 in total strikes, while both fighters landed a knockdown.
Now 33-8 as a pro, Oliveira has only been to four decisions (3-1) in 41 pro fights and 25 of his 30 early wins occurred in the first two rounds, with the other five ending in third round submissions. He has nine wins by KO, 21 by submission and three decisions. He holds the all time UFC record for the most submission wins as 16, which is five ahead of Demian Maia who’s in second with 11. Seven of Oliveira’s eight career losses have also ended early, with four KOs and three submissions. Three of those KO/TKO losses occurred in the first round, while his most recent occurred in round two (2017). His three submission losses have been spread out across the first three rounds, meaning that six of his seven early losses ended in the first two rounds. So in total, 37 of his 41 pro fights have ended with a finish, with 31 of those ending in the opening two rounds.
Oliveira started his UFC career at 155 lb, but after starting out just 2-2 plus a No Contest he dropped down to 145 lb in 2012. Oliveira then went 7-4 at 145 lb before moving back up to 155 lb in 2016. He lost two of his first three fights back up at 155 lb, but has since won 11 straight to bring his overall UFC Lightweight record to 14-4 plus a No Contest.
This will be Oliveira’s sixth UFC five-round fight and he has never been past the third round in his career. He went 4-1 in his five previous UFC five-round fights, with a 2022 R1 submission victory over Justin Gaethje, a 2021 R3 submission win over Dustin Poirier, a 2021 R2 KO win over Michael Chandler, a 2020 R3 submission win over Kevin Lee, and a 2015 R1 TKO loss to Max Holloway down at 145 lb. So he’s actually 4-0 in Lightweight five-round fights. If this somehow makes it to the championship rounds it will be interesting to see how Oliveira’s cardio looks considering he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes.
Overall, Oliveira is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt and one of the most dangerous grapplers on the planet and has shown a much improved standup game since joining Chute Boxe Diego Lima in 2018. He’s a technical striker who uses all eight of his weapons and changes things up well. His striking defense remains his biggest weakness, and we’ve seen him get hurt on the feet in the first round of each of his last three fights. However, while he was widely regarded as a quitter early in his career, largely due to how his fights with Max Holloway and Paul Felder went, he’s shown much more resilience lately. Only two of his last 10 opponents dared to try and take him down, and both of those opponents (Kevin Lee and Nick Lentz) landed two of their attempts. However, Oliveira went on to land finishes in both fights. Oliveira has just a 57% career takedown defense and generally doesn’t have much of a problem going to the mat or working off his back. While Oliveira has averaged just 3.53 SSL/min and 3.18 SSA/min in his lengthy career, those numbers have jumped to 6.44 SSL/min and 5.53 SSA/min in his last three fights as his striking has looked explosive but he’s also looked very hittable.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10” but Oliveira will have a 4” reach advantage. Makhachev is two years younger than the 33-year-old Oliveira.
This is the matchup we’ve all been waiting for and it’s a fascinating one. Oliveira is the superior striker, but Makhachev has the better striking defense. Makhachev is a better wrestler, but Oliveira has the most submission wins in UFC history. While Oliveira is always a threat to finish fights at any moment, Makhachev is constantly banking minutes on the mat, while also being a dangerous submission threat himself. Oliveira has never been past the third round and Makhachev has never been past round four. That leaves some cardio uncertainty on both sides if this fight makes it into the championship round. While it’s rare for Oliveira to require the judges, it’s hard to see him winning a decision here as Makhachev is so dominant at controlling opponents on the mat, and Oliveira almost certainly needs a finish here to win his belt back. While Makhachev has never been submitted, he has been knocked out once and Oliveira is capable of dropping him if this fight stays standing. However, we’re expecting Makhachev to try and get this fight to the ground and he rarely gets hit on the feet. The fight will likely boil down to whether or not Makhachev can remain out of danger on the ground and we’re betting that he can. Look for him to patiently grind Oliveira out on the ground as he takes this fight into the later rounds and either lands a late submission or wins a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Makhachev Over 2.5” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Makhachev has averaged 100 DraftKings points in his 11 UFC wins with eight scores of 100 or more. His three sub 100 scores all occurred in three-round decision wins (75, 73, and 89), which were respectively on pace to score 104, 102, and 127 points over the course of five rounds. He scored 117 points in a fourth round submission win, 100 points in a third round submission victory, and 107 points in a second round finish. So overall it’s hard to find obvious ways for him to fail with a win at his reasonable price tag, outside of this fight starting out as a pure staring contest for a round or two and then seeing an abrupt mid-round finish without many stats behind it. He’s only been taken down twice in his career and has an elite 88% takedown defense, so it’s also unlikely Oliveira takes him down and controls him for extended periods of time. And if this fight goes the distance, all signs point to Makhachev getting his hand raised based on his control time and elite striking and grappling defenses. So overall, as long as Makhachev can avoid getting finished by Oliveira, he should score well and end up in winning lineups. Obviously that’s easier said than done against one of the most dangerous finishers on the planet in Oliveira, but if anyone were up for the task it would be Makhachev. Based on Makhachev’s large amount of control time, he generally makes for a better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel and is more reliant on landing an early finish to score well on FanDuel. The odds imply Makhachev has a 61% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Oliveira has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his 21 UFC wins, but has never topped 116 points, which came in his 2010 UFC debut. While 19 of his 21 UFC wins have come early, he’s only reached 100 DraftKings points seven times and has only scored about 104 points twice in his last 20 matches. However, both of those instances were in his last three fights and he’s coming off the second largest total of his career, where he notched 114 points in a first round submission win. While he was also able to score 109 points against Michael Chandler when he originally won the vacant Lightweight belt in his third most recent fight, that required him to land two knockdowns, which is hard to rely on considering he’s only landed five other knockdowns in his other 29 UFC fights combined. The last time we saw anyone attempt to take Oliveira down was when he faced Kevin Lee in 2020. Lee landed two of his three takedown attempts with six and a half minutes of control time. While Oliveira was able to lock up an early third round guillotine to secure the win, he only scored 69 DraftKings points and 86 points on FanDuel in the win. Now he faces an opponent in Makhachev who excels at controlling opponents on the mat and who holds the all time UFC record for fewest significant strikes absorbed per minute at just 0.84, while also having an elite 88% takedown defense. So while Oliveira is a world class finisher, this is the worst matchup he could ask for from a DFS perspective. He’ll likely need a finish in the first two rounds to return value even at his cheaper price tag, and even a second round finish or a first round guillotine could fail to be enough to be useful in a higher scoring slate (as long as some other underdogs actually win this week). Oliveira’s cheap price tag and recent scoring success essentially guarantee he’ll be very highly owned, making this a great spot to gain leverage on the field in tournaments by fading him. The odds imply Oliveira has a 39% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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