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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #15
Fernie Garcia
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Garcia landed the first KO/TKO win of his career in his recent appearance on DWCS after winning four straight decisions just prior to that. He does have three rear-naked choke finishes on his record, but those all came earlier in his career and they were all against struggling opponents with losing records. He hasn’t faced much in terms of competition and only four of his wins have come against opponents with winning records. Also, his fourth most recent opponent had a winning record but was 45 years old and took the fight on short notice. His opponents entered his fights with records of 0-0, 1-3, 12-30, 6-10-1, 1-5, 3-2 (L), 3-4, 3-1, 9-6, 4-1, and 8-1.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Garcia has one win by KO, three by submission, and six decisions. His only career loss came in a 2019 decision. Interestingly, four of the seven decisions Garcia has been to have been split. Ten of his 11 fights have ended in either the first round (3) or gone the distance (7). He started his pro career at 145 lb in 2015, but dropped down to 135 lb in his fourth fight, where he’s stayed other than one 140 lb Catchweight match in 2019.
In his recent win on DWCS, Garcia took on a grappler in Joshua Weems who missed weight by 3 lb, but Garcia was able to defend both of Weem’s takedowns to keep the fight on the feet. Garcia landed a big left hand two minutes into the first round that dropped Weems and then went to town with ground and pound to force a stoppage on the mat.
Overall, Garcia is a boxer who generally tends to wear on his opponents more than finishing them quickly, with the exception obviously coming in his last fight. He’s pretty heavy on his lead leg and has looked extremely vulnerable to getting it chewed up through leg kicks. While he’s just a BJJ purple belt, he will mix in takedowns and has three first round submission wins. He tends to start fast but fade/cruise a little down the stretch, opposed to really pushing for late finishes, so it’s not surprising that he’s been to so many decisions and doesn’t have any late finishes. He does throw high-volume combinations and a ton of strikes in general, so you can’t blame him for slowing down later in fights and it’s not like he’s completely gassing out or anything. He fights out of Fortis MMA and trains closely with Damon Jackson and Miles Johns.
Journey Newson
4th UFC Fight (0-2, NC)Twenty months removed from a quick first round KO loss to Randy Costa, Newson is still in search of his first official UFC win after he had a 2020 38 second round one KO victory overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC. Newson came into the UFC in 2019 on a six fight winning streak that included five early finishes, but lost his short notice UFC debut in a low-volume three-round decision against Ricardo Ramos. In that fight, Newson only landed 38 significant strikes and failed on his only takedown attempt, but he did come close to locking up a guillotine in round three and showed a decent chin when he absorbed a flush spinning elbow and kept on ticking.
Newson is now 9-3 as a pro, with three wins by KO, three by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, both times in the first round, and has one decision loss. Three of his last four fights have ended in 80 seconds or less. He’s a BJJ black belt, but he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, as Newson was knocked out by a head kick just 41 seconds into the first round by Randy Costa. Only five total strikes were landed in the fight with Costa leading 4-1 and nothing else happening.
Overall, Newson is a pretty well rounded fighter as he started off training Taekwondo as a kid before transitioning to jiu-jitsu when he got a little older. He has a couple of boxing matches on his record and his father was also a boxer. Newson has heavy hands, but he’s pretty short and generally fighting at a high disadvantage. He’s looked very vulnerable to head kicks in each of his last two fights, which is definitely something he needs to work on. He also doesn’t throw much volume and has only averaged 2.76 SSL/min through his first three UFC fights. Still in search of his first UFC win, Newson could be fighting for his job here depending on how the UFC views his No Contest that was originally a first round KO win.
Fight Prediction:
Garcia will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 67” reach.
With Newson returning from a 20 month layoff and Garcia making his UFC debut, this is a higher variance spot than normal and both guys are looking to prove that they belong in the UFC. As a BJJ black belt, Newson should have the grappling advantage, which may result in Garcia not looking for takedowns as he often has in the past. That will leave Garcia entirely reliant on his boxing to win and he doesn’t throw many kicks. Garcia throws way more volume than Newson, but Newson throws more impactful shots and has a greater variety of strikes. We expect Garcia to set the pace in output and Newson will likely be playing catchup from the start in terms of pure striking numbers. That will leave Newson reliant on grappling and/or landing a finish to win this fight as we don’t see him outlanding his way to a decision. Garcia has never been finished, albeit against pretty suspect competition, but we like his chances to outland his way to a decision win as long as he can avoid getting put to sleep for the first time in his career.
Our favorite bet here is “Garcia Wins by Decision” at +210.
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DFS Implications:
Garcia is a high-volume striker or will mix in takedowns at times, but has no problem keeping things standing for the duration of fights. While he’s coming off a first round knockout, that’s the first KO/TKO of his career and he really isn’t much of a power puncher. He excels at stitching together combinations and outlanding his way to decision wins. While he has the potential to score decently through striking output alone, he would need to keep up a blistering pace for three rounds and he often slows down as fights go on. Now making his UFC debut, there’s probably a slightly greater chance than normal that he fades late in this fight, as we often see debuting fighters come out strong but get a little too aggressive early on and fade later. Working in Garcia’s favor, Newson has been knocked out in the first round in two of his three career losses, so even though we haven’t been impressed by Garcia’s finishing ability, there’s always a chance he could land the perfect shot and get the finish. With that said, we’re expecting him to simply outland his way to a decision win. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Newson looks like a boom or bust DFS play as he doesn’t land much striking volume, averaging just 2.76 SSL/min, and has failed to land his only takedown attempt so far in the UFC. He seems content looking to land big shots opposed to chipping away at his opponents, which is great when you can get a finish, but a problem when you can’t. Two-thirds of his career wins have come early, and he landed a 38 second round one KO in his second most recent fight, only to have the results overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC. So officially, he’s still searching for his first UFC win. Garcia has never been finished, but he also hasn’t faced much in terms of competition, so this should be a good test for him. Newson is coming off a 20 month layoff, which makes it tougher to know how he’ll look and he may have some ring rust to knock off early. That’s not ideal for a guy who’s seen three of his last four fights end in 80 seconds or less. Newson did go the distance in his 2019 short notice UFC debut against Ricardo Ramos, and the oddsmakers expect this one to go the distance as well. Even at his cheaper price tag, Newson will need a finish here to be useful unless he can surprise us with a dominant grappling performance. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #14
Loopy Godinez
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Continuing to rely on her wrestling, Godinez is coming off a dominating grappling performance over Loma Lookboonmee. She easily could/should be 3-1 or even 4-0 in the UFC, but lost both of the close decisions she’s been part of.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Godinez has one win by TKO, which came in the first round of her second pro fight, one submission win in her second UFC fight, also in the first round, and five decision victories. Both of her losses came in close UFC decisions that she arguably won.
In her last fight, Godinez landed 5 of her 12 takedown attempts with seven and a half minutes of control time. We didn’t see many significant strikes landed, with Godinez leading just 23-15 in the grappling-heavy three-round decision. Lookboonmee actually finished ahead in total strikes 72-64 and landed one takedown of her own.
Overall, Godinez is a well rounded fighter with both solid striking and wrestling. We haven’t seen much of her striking yet in the UFC, but it’s there when she needs it. She landed 15 takedowns in her four UFC fights and the only time she really struggled was when she moved up a weight class (a week after previously fighting at 115 lb) and had a tough time taking down the much larger Luana Carolina. Amazingly, three of Godinez’s four UFC fights occurred over a six week stretch in October and November 2021. She only made her debut 13 months ago, but has had a very active year.
Ariane Carnelossi
4th UFC Fight (2-1)After failing to land a takedown on just one attempt in her first two UFC fights, Carnelossi showed off some grappling in her last fight when she took on one-dimensional striker/gasser Istela Nunes and landed five takedowns on her way to a third round submission win. Just prior to that, Carnelossi finished another gasbag in Na Liang, who was so tired after the first round she had to be illegally carried to her corner after Song Yadong peeled her off the mat just as the ref was considering stopping the fight following the first round. Carnelossi has yet to see the judges in the UFC, as her debut ended in a 2019 third round TKO loss against Angela Hill due to a doctor stoppage.
Now 14-2 as a pro, Carnelossi has nine wins by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. Her only other career loss besides the R3 TKO in her debut was a first round submission to Amanda Ribas in Carnelossi’s 2014 pro debut. She’s won 14 of her last 15 fights, with 11 of those coming early. However, 9 of her last 10 fights have made it out of the first round.
In her last fight, Carnelossi took the path of least resistance as faced a pure striker in Istela Nunes and opted to test her on the mat. Carnelossi landed five takedowns on seven attempts with over seven minutes of control time before landing a submission midway through the third round. Nunes finished ahead in significant strikes 62-36 and in total strikes 98-76.
Carnelossi is primarily a striker, but showed us in her last fight that she can grapple when she needs to. As you could guess by looking at her, Carnelossi is powerful, but she’s not especially quick and doesn’t have a great striking defense. She averages 5.52 SSA/min and has been outlanded in two of her three UFC fights. The only fighter to try and take Carnelossi down was Na Liang, who landed three of her four attempts before gassing out.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’2” with a 61” reach.
This is an interesting matchup as both ladies relied on their wrestling in their most recent matchups to secure victories. However, that’s the first time we’ve seen Carnelossi offensively wrestle in the UFC and it came against a one-dimensional Muay Thai striker. The only time Carnelossi has faced a grappler so far in the UFC was when she took on a debuting Na Liang, who was able to take Carnelossi down three times on four attempts. That doesn’t give us much confidence in her ability to stop Godinez from taking her down. While Carnelossi has a history of finishing opponents, we’d be surprised to see her finish Godinez here, and we like Godinez to out wrestle her way to another decision win.
Our favorite bet here is Godinez’s ML at -170.
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DFS Implications:
Godinez has yet to score well in a decision, despite her wrestling heavy approach to fighting. The grappling stats have been there but she hasn’t added the striking numbers required to put up a big score. However, she did put up a slate-breaking 127 DraftKings points in her lone UFC finish, which ended in an ideal scenario late round submission, where she landed five takedowns in the round leading up to the finish. Both of Carnelossi’s career losses have come early, although one of those came in her pro debut against Amanda Ribas and the other was in her UFC debut due to a doctor stoppage. The most likely outcome here is for Godinez to win a wrestling heavy decision. Whether or not that scores well will likely depend on the number of ground strikes she throws, but if her current trend continues you can expect it to score somewhere in the 70-90 point range on DraftKings. At her expensive price tag that won’t be enough to crack winning lineups, so you’re relying more on an outlier performance or a finish if you play her. The odds imply she has a 63% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Carnelossi has scored 105 or more DraftKings points in each of her last two wins, but both of those were aided by her opponents gassing out. She’ll now face a much tougher test in Godinez, who’s never been finished and has won multiple five-round decisions to prove she has solid cardio. With that said, Carnelossi is a powerful striker who’s won 14 of her last 15 fights with 11 of those wins coming early, and she’s shown clear upside. She’ll need to stay off her back to win this fight and we expect Godinez to look and capitalize on Carnelossi’s 25% takedown defense. If Carnelossi can keep the fight standing or land takedowns of her own, then this fight could quickly look much closer than expected. The line has notably moved in Carnelossi’s favor and the odds now imply Carnelossi has a 37% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #13
Kleydson Rodrigues
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a decision win on DWCS, Rodrigues comes in on a six fight winning streak. He’s only fought once since 2019, after he had two fights canceled leading up to his appearance on DWCS, but he went the full 15 minutes and looked great from start to finish. His cardio looked solid and his striking output actually increased as the fight went on. He was also very accurate, landing 65% of the significant strikes he threw, which is even more impressive when you consider he was mixing in a lot of spinning attacks which normally land at a lower rate.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Rodrigues has three wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. His only career loss came in a 2015 split-decision in his second pro fight. Only four of his wins have come against opponents with winning records, so he still hasn’t faced much in terms of competition in his career, which is probably the one knock you make on him. Four of his five finishes have come in the first round, with the other ending midway through round two.
In his DWCS fight, Rodrigues took on a wrestler, but was able to force him into a one-sided striking battle that Rodrigues dominated from start to finish as he finished ahead in significant strikes 91-21. Rodrigues controlled the center of the Octagon and kept the fight at kicking range to utilize his length advantage masterfully. He threw a barrage of violent kicks and flying knees and did a great job of mixing up his attacks. He also showed the ability to quickly get up when he was taken down and overall the only thing he was missing was a finish.
Overall, Rodrigues is a dangerous and aggressive Brazilian striker with good size for the Flyweight division. He’s also shown the ability to finish fights on the mat, but looks most dangerous on the feet. He won the Jungle Fight Flyweight Championship in his second most recent fight with a second round rear-naked choke finish. He’s an exciting young prospect and still just 26 years old, so he looks like a guy to keep an eye on.
CJ Vergara
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Ode Osbourne in his recent UFC debut, Vergara had landed five straight knockouts leading up to that defeat. He notably missed weight by 1.5 lb for his debut, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a 41 second R1 KO win on DWCS with a knee to the liver of his opponent. Just prior to that DWCS victory, Vergara won the Fury FC Flyweight Championship against Jacob Silva, who notably lost twice on DWCS against Jeff Molina and J.P. Buys. Vergara looked to be in trouble early in that fight after getting knocked down by Silva in the first round, but showed his resilience as he bounced back with a R3 TKO. The fight played out as an up-tempo brawl with both guys leaving it all out there.
Now 9-3-1 as a pro, Vergara has six wins by KO and three by decision. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 2018 first round submission, while his other two losses both went the distance, with one of those being a split-decision against UFC fighter Jonathan Martinez.
In his recent debut, Vergara fought decently well behind his left hook, but didn’t do anything overly impressive in the match. He was able to show the durability and cardio to go 15 minutes with a dangerous opponent in Ode Osbourne, whose previous eight fights had all ended in round one. Unsurprisingly, Osbbourne faded in the third round after not being in a fight that lasted longer than five minutes since 2016. That allowed Vergara to take the overall lead in striking in the fight as he led 41-19 in significant strikes and 70-24 in total strikes in just the third round. Looking at the fight in its entirety, Vergara led in significant strikes 93-79 and in total strikes 122-89, while Osbourne was only able to land one of his seven takedown attempts. All three judges agreed that Osbourne had done enough to win the first two rounds and awarded him a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Overall, Vergara looks to be a one-dimensional striker who likes to push the pace, but doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling. He also doesn’t offer a ton of variety in terms of his striking and hasn’t really impressed us with anything he’s done. He’s often struggled to hit 125 lb with multiple weight misses on his record and he’s also competed up at 135 lb some in the past, as well as having multiple Catchweight fights. Between his weight struggles and average fighting ability, it would be surprising if Vergara made it to a second contract in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’6” but Vergara will have a 1” reach advantage.
This sets up as a fun striking battle, but Rodrigues has shown the ability to submit opponents on the mat as well, which is not something we can say about Vergara. Rodrigues looks all around like a much better fighter and we expect him to be able to pick Vergara apart on the feet. The fact that Rodrigues has only fought once since late 2019 and will be making his UFC debut on a PPV card in front of a huge crowd is certainly of some concern, but he looked great in his last fight and really doesn’t appear to have many areas of weakness. Vergara looks to be dependent on landing a knockout to win this fight and it’s tough to see that happening. We like Rodrigues to outclass him everywhere the fight goes and easily win this one. To Vergara’s credit, he went 15 minutes with another dangerous finisher in his recent debut, so it’s tougher to say if Rodrigues will be able to get him out of there early and as the odds suggest it’s probably close to a coin flip as to whether Rodrigues gets a finish or wins a decision. With that said, he has the explosive power to end the fight at any moment.
Our favorite bet here is “Rodrigues Decision” at +175.
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DFS Implications:
Rodrigues is an aggressive striker who landed 91 significant strikes in his recent decision win on DWCS against a fighter who wasn’t looking to engage with him. Going against a more aggressive opponent like Vergara we could easily see that number rise, but Rodrigues still needs a finish to return value at his expensive price tag. With that said, five of his seven career wins have come in the first two rounds, with four ending in round one, so he has clear upside. Even if he does get a finish, he’ll need to outscore the majority of the other high priced fighters, but he’s certainly in the running to get that done. There are a few red flags with him, as he’s making his UFC debut and has only fought once since 2019, but he looked great in that appearance and he’s an exciting young prospect. Vergara has notably never been knocked out, but he has been submitted once, and Rodrigues has shown the ability to finish fights both on the feet and the mat. The odds imply he has a 75% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Vergara is coming off a close decision loss in his UFC debut and now finds himself in another really tough matchup. As a one-dimensional striker, Vergara doesn’t offer any sort of grappling to boost his scoring and will either need a finish or a crazy high-volume decision win to score well. He’s often struggled making the cut down to 125 lb and has multiple weight misses on his record, but has still never been knocked out. Working in Vergara’s favor, this will be his second UFC fight, both of which were on PPV cards in front of huge crowds, so this will be nothing new to him. He also landed five straight knockouts prior to joining the UFC, so he has shown a consistent finishing ability at least on the regional scene. While this doesn’t look like a good matchup for him by any means, we expect these two to throw down in a striking battle and anything can happen in a fist fight. The odds imply Vergara has a 25% chance to win, a 15% chance it comes early, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Tracy Cortez
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Thirteen months removed from her 5th straight decision win (two of those split), Cortez has wins over both Stephanie Egger and Erin Blanchfield that have aged quite well. Her stat lines over her last four fights have been pretty consistent with takedown totals of 4, 2, 3, and 3, and significant striking totals of 66, 79, 20, and 66.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Cortez has won nine straight fights since getting submitted from a second round guillotine in her 2017 pro debut. Seven of those wins have gone the distance, while she landed a pair of finishes in 2018 with a first round submission and a second round TKO. After fighting her first seven pro fights at 125 lb, Cortez moved up to 135 lb for her first two UFC fights before dropping back down to 125 lb for her most recent match, where this next fight will also be.
In her last fight, Cortez won a split decision against Justine Kish, but missed weight by a half pound for the fight as she moved back down from 135 lb to 125 lb. Cortez landed a takedown in all three rounds with six and a half minutes of total control time, while also finishing ahead in significant strikes 66-55 and in total strikes 84-72. Kish was able to land a knockdown in the third round and the striking exchanges were close as Cortez relies mostly on her wrestling to win fights.
Cortez is a powerful wrestler who averages three takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but doesn’t offer a ton on the feet where she averages just 3.85 significant strikes landed per minute. She relies on controlling her opponents on the mat to win fights and isn’t much of a finishing threat. Cortez trains out of Fight Ready in her home state of Arizona so she’ll be fighting in front of her home crowd for this event.
Melissa Gatto
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming off her third straight early win, Gatto is a slick grappler but actually won her last two fights by TKO, which are the only two KO/TKOs of her career. Her previous four wins all ended in first round submissions, after she won decisions in her first two pro fights. She also had a pair of draws mixed in there. Prior to making her UFC debut, Gatto hadn’t fought in nearly three years since submitting Karol Rosa in the first round of a 2018 fight prior to them joining the UFC. Following that win Gatto had four fights scheduled but canceled, before finally making her UFC debut against Victoria Leonardo in August 2021. Gatto ended up winning her debut with a post R2 TKO after Leonardo suffered a recurring arm injury. After 10 minutes of action, Gatto led in significant strikes 70-43 and in total strikes 96-59. She landed 1 one of her 5 takedown attempts, with just under two minutes of control time, while Leonardo went 0 for 3 on her attempts. Gatto showed improved striking in her debut after looking lost on the feet earlier in her career.
Now 8-0-2 as a pro, Gatto remains undefeated and has two wins by TKO, four by submission, and two decisions. All four of her submissions have come in the first round, two by armbar, one by kimura, and another by rear-naked choke. Both of her recent TKO wins have come in the later rounds, with one ending in round three and the other ending just before round three started. Gatto started her career at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb when she made her UFC debut.
In her last fight, Gatto faced a tough Sijara Eubanks who had recently dropped back down to the 125 lb weight class. However, Eubanks missed weight by 1.5 lb for that fight. Eubanks was able to take Gatto down early in the first round and pin her against the fence. Euabnks was able to control her in that position for the remainder of the round while Gato looked for submissions off her back. Eubanks looked to get the fight back to the mat to start round two. Gatto was able to fight off the initial attempts, but Eubanks kept at it and eventually got her down 90 seconds into the round. However, Gotta was impressively able to reverse the position and end up on top and control the remainder of the round. Gatto then landed a front body kick that crumpled Eubanks to start round three and the fight was abruptly stopped. That’s the only time Eubanks has been finished in 14 pro fights and it came in a second straight flukey TKO finish for Gatto.
Overall, Gatto is a dangerous submission threat who has shown improvements to her striking since joining the UFC, but she has been extremely fortunate with both of her two TKO finishes as one came from an ongoing arm injury and the other was a rare TKO by body shot. She has looked good since dropping down to 125 lb, and physically she’s all muscle it seems like. The fight with Eubanks was extremely close before the flukey finish, and the outcome likely would have come down to who could control the other on the mat in the third round had it not been for the finish.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5” but Gatto will have a 4” reach advantage.
This is a similar matchup to Gatto’s last one as she goes against another grappler who had been fighting at 135 lb until just recently. We saw Gatto get controlled for extended periods of time on her back, while constantly looking for submissions in that fight and that’s exactly what we expect to see here. Cortez isn’t a great striker and she’ll be reliant on controlling Gatto on the mat to win this fight, so Gatto should have plenty of opportunities to throw up submissions. That makes this a dicey one to predict as Cortez should be the one racking up control time and takedowns and therefore far more likely to get the nod in a decision if it makes it there, but Gatto will be the one with the chance to end things early. You also have to question how the judges will weigh control time versus submission attempts and honestly who knows what the judges are ever thinking. So while we expect to either see a Gatto early win or a Cortez decision, it would not at all be surprising to see this end in a split-decision. Forced to choose, we'll give the advantage to Cortez to squeak out a decision in front of the home crowd, but this should be a close one.
Our favorite bet here is “Gatto Submission” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
Cortez is typically a DraftKings specific play where she can score from her massive amounts of control time, and she struggles to score well on FanDuel. She’s gone to five straight decisions and hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat. At her high price tag, she’ll either need a finish or a completely dominating wrestling performance to return value. That may require you to hold your breath for 15 minutes if you play her, as Gatto will constantly be throwing up submissions off her back. Cortez will need to be very careful not to get caught in something and her wrestling heavy style should give Gatto plenty of opportunities to hunt for a finish. When you combine that with the fact that Gatto has never lost a fight and the line has moved in her favor, this looks like a tougher spot for Cortez. With that said, she’s shown a solid DraftKings floor, but a far less reliable scoring ceiling. She should be low owned, which makes her somewhat interesting in tournaments, but she has a very narrow path to ending up in winning lineups. The odds imply she has a 57% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Gattos is coming off back-to-back flukey late round TKO stoppages, but should get plenty of opportunities to look for submissions off her back here as she faces a wrestler in Cortez. Gatto’s striking has looked improved since joining the UFC, so she should also be able to remain competitive on the feet. While she should have plenty of time to hunt for defensive submissions, it’s tough to hit a scoring ceiling off your back and she’ll likely be looking to serve as a value play with a finish, depending on the timing. Gatto was 30% owned in a very similar situation in her last fight, and after landing a pair of finishes in her first two fights, she should be decently popular compared to the other three-round dogs once again. That makes it tougher to get excited about playing her in tournaments and eventually she’s due for some negative variance to come her way. The odds imply she has a 43% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Andre Fialho
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)After knocking out Miguel Baeza just three weeks ago, Fialho is stepping into this short notice matchup that was announced just a week ago. Fialho’s last five wins have all come by KO in a round and a half or less, with the last four ending in round one. His only loss in his last six fights came in a hardfought decision in his UFC debut against Michel Pereira.
Now 15-4 as a pro, Fialho has 12 wins by KO, one by submission, and just two decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has two decision losses, with all four of his career losses coming against fighters who are currently or were previously in the UFC (2016 R1 KO vs. Chidi Njokuani, 2019 R3 KO vs. Chris Curtis, 2020 R3 DEC vs. Antonio dos Santos Jr. and 2022 R3 DEC vs. Michel Pereira).
In his recent R1 KO win over Baeza, Fialho took control of the center of the Octagon early on, but Baeza began to find his range and take over as the round went on. However, Baeza foolishly failed to mix in any grappling despite being a BJJ black belt going against a one-dimensional striker, and Fialho made him pay for that mistake as he landed a series of short uppercuts late in the round followed by a left hook that dropped Baeza to close the show.
Overall, Fialho is essentially a one-dimensional boxer, but still just 28 years old, so he has time to round out his skillset. He’s got good hands, but he can be a little heavy on his lead leg and has looked prone to getting that lead leg chewed up. He’s most dangerous in the opening five minutes and has been prone to fading down the stretch at times. Ten of his 12 finishes have occurred in the first round, while the other two ended in the first half of round two. He has a background in boxing and trains out of Sanford MMA. He’s a BJJ purple belt, and he’s not much of a submission threat with just one win by submission on his record. He’s lost his last three fights that have made it past the midway mark of round two, and four if you count the loss that was later overturned to a No Contest.
Cameron VanCamp
1st UFC Fight (0-0)VanCamp had been scheduled to make his debut back in September 2021, but ended up not being medically cleared and the fight was scrapped. That fight had been set to take place at 155 lb, but now VanCamp will be making his short notice UFC debut at 170 lb. VanCamp started his career at 155 lb and even fought down at 145 lb once, but has been fighting mostly at 170 lb since 2016. In his career, he’s gone 8-1 at 170 lb, 1-0 at 165 lb, 0-1 at 160 lb, 5-3-1 with another loss overturned to a NC at 155 lb, and 1-0 at 145 lb. He's notably lost 3 of his last 4 fights at 155 lb (2018, 2017 and 2016), although two of those came against fighters who went on to join the UFC in Austin Hubbard and Thomas Gifford. His most recent loss was a 2019 five-round decision at 170 lb against former UFC and Strikeforce fighter Bobby Voelker. Vancamp was strangely deducted a point for losing his mouthpiece too many times in that fight.
Now 15-5-1 as a pro with another loss later overturned to a No Contest, 13 of VanCamp’s wins have come early with four KOs and nine submissions, to go along with just two decisions. He’s officially only been finished twice with a 2015 R2 KO in his fourth pro fight and then a 2017 R3 rear-naked choke loss to Austin Hubbard. However, he was also choked out by Thomas Gifford in 2018 from a guillotine, but it was later overturned to a No Contest.
VanCamp is a wildman in the cage as he’ll brawl on the feet with little regard for his own chin and also throw up all sorts of submissions on the mat. With that said, he’s generally looking to get fights to the ground to finish opponents. The majority of his finishes have come by submission and he loves to go for rear-naked chokes or throw up triangles off his back. Nine of his 13 career finishes have come in the first round with his last two taking a combined 131 seconds. Only two of his 15 career wins have come beyond the second round and those were his only two decision victories. He comes into the UFC on a four fight winning streak.
Fight Prediction:
VanCamp will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 74” reach.
A big thing to keep in mind with VanCamp is that he’s been fighting on the regional Kentucky and Tennessee scenes and has faced a lot of highly questionable competition, even if he has gone up against a few guys with UFC experience. It will be interesting to see how he looks in an actual UFC fight. He’s been highly hittable in the past, which isn’t ideal as he squares off against a power puncher. However, Fialho is a one-dimensional striker and if VanCamp can get this fight to the mat he’ll have a major grappling advantage. That keeps things interesting and leaves the results of this matchup dependent on where the fight takes place—the mat or the feet. We still expect Fialho to come in and knock VanCamp out in round one, but things will get very interesting if VanCamp can land a takedown.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Fialho is a one-dimensional power puncher who has landed finishes in 13 of his 15 career wins. Eleven of those finishes have come in round one, with the other two ending in the first half of round two. He scored 113 DraftKings points in his recent R1 KO win over Baeza just three weeks ago, and will now be jumping right back into the Octagon against a UFC newcomer in his easiest matchup to date in the UFC. As the second most expensive fighter on the slate, Fialho not only needs a first round knockout to end up in tournament winning lineups, he also needs to outscore the other high priced fighters. A second round finish likely won’t be enough unless he lands multiple knockdowns or a ridiculous number of strikes. The odds imply he has a 78% chance to win, a 54% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
VanCamp was made for DFS as his offensive minded approach to fighting should allow him to fill up the statsheet as long as his chin holds up, which is a big if in this matchup. His grappling-heavy fighting style lends itself more to DraftKings than FanDuel, but his finishing ability and cheap price tag make him a near lock to end up in winning lineups if he can pull off the upset. Of his 15 career wins, 13 have come early, including nine in the first round. He ended his last two fights in a combined 131 seconds. VanCamp will likely get murdered pretty quickly if this fight remains standing, but he should hold a sizable grappling advantage and just needs to get the fight to the mat to take over. He’s certainly not an elite grappler by any means, but Fialho is a one-dimensional striker and there’s a great chance VanCamp can find his way to a submission if he can get him down. The odds imply VanCamp has a 22% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Blagoy Ivanov
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Two years removed from a split-decision loss to Augusto Sakai, Ivanov has fought to six straight decisions (3-3), including going the distance with Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa, and a pre-washed up Junior dos Santos. His last two fights have both ended in split -decision losses and he’s just 2-3 in his last five fights. Ivanov is a Judo black belt and a former Combat Sambo World Champion (2008), but he’s also now 35 years old and has yet to finish an opponent inside of the UFC. Ivanov was infamously stabbed in the heart in a Bulgarian bar in 2012 and spent three months in a coma if you need any further proof of his toughness.
Now 18-4 as a pro, Ivanov has six wins by KO, six by submission, and six decisions. The only person to ever finish him is Alexander Volkov, who submitted him with a second round rear-naked choke in 2014—one of Volkov’s few career submission wins. Ivanov’s other three losses came in decisions against Junior dos Santos, Derrick Lewis, and Augusto Sakai. The last two of those were both split. The last time Ivanov finished anybody was in a 2017 R1 TKO and the last time he landed a submission came in a 2015 third round guillotine choke.
In his last fight, Ivanov lost a split decision to Augusto Sakai in May 2020. Ivanov landed just one of his three takedown attempts, while Sakai finished ahead 78-66 in significant strikes and 89-71 in total strikes.
Ivanov is an absolute tank who has shown he can’t be stopped by fists, kicks, or knives. The biggest concerns with him are his age (35) and extended layoff, but unless he’s fallen off a cliff since we last saw him, he’ll still be a tough guy to put away. He’s not very offensively minded as he averages just 3.32 SSL/min and 1.1 TDs/15 min. He will look for submissions, but has only come close enough to landing one to be awarded with a single official submission attempt in the UFC. He’s landed six takedowns in his last three fights after failing to land a takedown in his first two UFC fights.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
14th UFC Fight (8-5)Coming off of two consecutive wins for the first time since 2014 after alternating wins and submission losses in 11 straight fights, De Lima knocked out a previously very durable Ben Rothwell in just 32 seconds after controlling Maurice Greene for 15 minutes on the mat in his previous fight. De Lima has now won four of his last five fights with his lone loss over that stretch coming against Alexandr Romanov. De Lima worked his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter Brazil in 2014, where despite getting submitted by Antonio Carlos Junior in his third fight on the show, he still got the chance to make his UFC debut just a couple of weeks later. He was competing as a somewhat undersized Heavyweight at the time, and tipped the scales at just 235 lb for his debut, which he won with a lightning fast 20 second R1 KO. He then dropped down to Light Heavyweight for his next six fights, where he went 3-3, before moving back up to Heavyweight in 2018. All six of his fights at Light Heavyweight ended early, including five in R1 and one in R2. All three of those losses ended in submissions, while two of the three wins came by KO. After his first six UFC fights all ended in the first round, De Lima finally saw R2 for the first time when he was submitted by Ovince St. Preux in 2017 midway through the second round. After missing weight by 4 lb in back to back fights at Light Heavyweight, De Lima moved back up to Heavyweight following the submission loss to OSP. After fighting at 235 lb in his UFC debut, De Lima shot up to 253 lb in his 2018 return to the weight class. For the first time in his UFC career, De Lima made it past the second round and ended up winning a decision. Continuing to alternate between wins and submission losses, De Lima was then submitted two more times in his most recent four fights at Heavyweight, while also landing two more knockouts and winning another decision. So here are his UFC Heavyweight results: 2014 R1 KO win, 2018 decision win, 2019 R2 submission loss, 2020 R1 KO win, 2020 R1 submission loss, 2021 decision win, 2021 R1 KO win. So overall, three first round KO wins, two decision wins, and a pair of submission losses (R1 & R2).
Now 19-7-1 as a pro, De Lima has 14 wins by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. Despite being a “BJJ black belt” De Lima has been submitted in five of his seven pro losses and looks helpless off his back. He’s also been knocked out once (2012) and lost one decision (2011). All five of his submission losses have come in the first two rounds, with three in R1 and two in R2. His last five wins and 9 of his last 10 have all ended in either first round knockouts or decisions. De Lima’s UFC wins have come against a series of questionable opponents, six of whom didn’t fight again in the UFC with the other two combining to go 1-3 after losing to De Lima.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, but De Lima came out firing and landed some heavy leg kicks followed by a series of heavy punches that buckled Rothwell. As Rothwell sort of fell forward De Lima grabbed his head and Herb Dean stopped the fight despite it appearing that Rothwell was trying to recover and look for a takedown.
Overall, De Lima’s fight strategy appears to be to look for knockouts early in fights before settling into riding out top position on the mat. However, when he gets reversed or taken down himself it almost always ends up with him getting submitted and he’s terrible off his back. He doesn’t have great cardio and hasn’t finished anybody beyond the first round since 2010.
Fight Prediction:
De Lima will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
This is a fascinating matchup between a fighter in Ivanov who does nothing but go to decisions and his opponent in De Lima who rarely sees the judges. While it’s concerning that Ivanov hasn’t fought in two years, the fact that he went the distance with 2018 Junior dos Santos, Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, and Augusto Sakai is a testament to his toughness. Unless he’s fallen off a cliff since we last saw him, this guy is essentially indestructible and it would be surprising to see De Lima come in and steamroll him in round one. Then you factor in that Ivanov is a former Combat Sambo World Champion, and it’s also very hard to see De Lima out grappling him on the mat. At that point the question becomes, can Ivanov, a guy that has done nothing but fight to slow paced decisions so far in the UFC, finally get a finish? We’ve seen him look for submissions in the past and De Lima might be the most submittable Heavyweight on the roster. So if Ivanov was ever going to get a finish, this would be the matchup. We like De Lima to sell out for a knockout early in R1, gas out, and get submitted by Ivanov either late in round one or early in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Ivanov Submission” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
This is such an interesting matchup because on one side we have De Lima, who win or lose, his fights almost always produce a high scorer, and on the other we have Ivanov, who’s the exact opposite, as his fights never produce a high scorer. That makes this the most likely De Lima matchup to bust, but also the most likely Ivanov matchup to go off. Ivanov is the gross favorite that no one wants to play despite the fact that he’s in a dream matchup. He’s averaged a vomit-inducing 47 DraftKings points in his five UFC fights, has lost two straight fights, has gone to six straight decisions, and hasn’t competed in two years. The last time he finished an opponent was in 2017, prior to joining the UFC, and if you simply looked at the guy, professional fighter probably wouldn’t be your first guess for his profession. However, that’s why he’ll be so incredibly low owned in tournaments. De Lima has been submitted in all five of his UFC losses and Ivanov is a former Combat Sambo World Champion, so he’s fully capable of capitalizing on that. While there’s still a good chance Ivanov finds a way to bust here, if you’re ever going to play him, this is the time and it’s incredibly easy to have leverage on the field without going crazy. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
De Lima has averaged 110 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins and has been submitted in all five of his UFC losses. He typically aggressively hunts for first round knockouts, but will also sometimes look to grind opponents out on the mat for 15 minutes. Both of those will be tough to do here as Ivanov has never been knocked out, despite facing a series of knockout specialists, and is also a former Combat Sambo World Champion. However, Ivanov is also 35 years old and coming off a two year layoff, which makes this a higher variance spot as it’s tougher to gauge his current form. De Lima looks like a boom or bust play in one of the worst matchups he could ask for. He’s scored 106 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four fights, so we expect the field to be chasing those scores to some extent, which just further reduces our interest in playing him. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Brandon Royval
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Narrowly avoiding a three fight skid with a split-decision win over Rogerio Bontorin in his last outing, Royval is a perfect example of the UFC rushing a guy to the top too quickly. After just two wins in the UFC, Royval was thrust into a top contender fight against Brandon Moreno in 2020. After suffering a shoulder injury that resulted in R1 TKO loss in that fight, he then faced another top contender in Alexandre Pantoja and got submitted in the second round. Realistically he should have been fighting guys like Bontorin and Schnell then as he built up his experience, but his early success against ranked guys like Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France fast tracked him straight to the top.
Now 13-6 as a pro, Royval is a BJJ black belt and has three wins by KO, eight by submission, and two decisions. His one KO/TKO loss resulted from a dislocated shoulder against Brandon Moreno and his lone submission loss came against Alexandre Pantoja. His other four losses all ended in decisions. All 11 of Royval’s finishes have come in the first two rounds, with eight ending in round one and three in round two. His last two early wins both ended in second round submissions. Royval fought at 135 lb until 2016 when he dropped down to the 125 lb division. Standing 5’9”, he’s tall for the division and generally has the height advantage in his fights.
In his recent win over Bontorin, Royval got taken down eight times on nine attempts and controlled for nearly eight minutes. He did lead in significant strikes 40-28 and in total strikes 81-39, while notching three official submission attempts, but he never even attempted a takedown. Royval came really close to finishing the fight with a controversial submission attempt that many will argue Bontorin actually tapped to.
Overall, Royval is a fast paced grappler who trains at elevation in Colorado and operates at an insane pace that most opponents can’t keep up with. He has no problem hunting for submissions off his back or from unconventional positions and he’s only landed two takedowns in his five UFC fights.
Matt Schnell
10th UFC Fight (5-3, NC)Schnell hasn't fought in almost exactly a year since losing a decision to Rogerio Bontorin after he had three straight fights against Alex Perez canceled. Schnell had also been scheduled to face Perez before he took on Bontorin but that booking was also canceled. The fight against Bontorin was up at 135 lb, but Schnell will now attempt to drop back down to 125 lb, the weight class where he had fought his previous three matches. Bontorin looked huge in that fight and actually missed weight by a pound. Schnell continued his newfound cautious approach to fighting and was made to pay for it as he lost a unanimous, albeit close, decision. The loss was actually recently overturned to a No Contest because Bontorin tested positive for a banned diuretic.
Schnell has now gone 1-2 at 135 lb in the UFC, with a 2016 R1 KO loss to Rob Font in Schnell’s UFC debut and a 2019 R1 submission win over Louis Smolka in addition to the recent decision loss. He’s gone 4-2 at 125 lb in the UFC with three decision wins, one R1 submission win, and two R1 KO losses.
Schnell’s second most recent fight ended in an uneventful decision win over Tyson Nam. Schnell took the striking lead early and then seemingly coasted to a split-decision win. The fact that one judge saw the fight in Nam’s favor shocked Schnell, but it’s not a great look to be moving backwards along the outside of the Octagon for the entire fight, only to then coast down the stretch.
After getting knocked out in the first round of a December 2019 fight against Alexandre Pantoja, Schnell took all of 2020 off, as he and his wife had a baby. He appears to have a newfound approach to fighting as he’s shown a far more cautious approach in his last two fights where it almost seems like he’s fighting not to lose as opposed to actually fighting to win. He used to be an aggressive, fast paced fighter who’s recklessness would both get him into trouble but also land him finishes, whereas now he’s trying to grind out slow paced decisions.
Prior to his recent pair of decisions, five of Schnell’s first seven fights ended in the first round (2-3), while his other two matches have both ended in decision victories. However, no longer looking for flashy finishes, Schnell has apparently settled into pointing his way to victory (or defeat).
Schnell now holds a 15-5 pro record with two KOs, eight submissions, four decisions, and one DQ win. Four of his five losses have also ended early, with three R1 KOs and a R2 submission to go along with a decision loss. Schnell’s last 10 fights have notably all ended in either the first round or gone to a decision.
Fight Prediction:
Royval will have a 1” height advantage, but Schnell will have a 2” reach advantage.
We’ve never been very impressed by Schnell and there’s a good chance Royval can finish him in the first two rounds. With that said, Schnell has settled into being a boring fighter who circles away from contact, and this fight will notably take place in the larger Octagon, so there’s always a chance Schnell just runs away the whole time looking to counter punch his way to another decision win. Royval has only landed two takedowns in five UFC fights and he’s been reliant on his opponents engaging with him to make fights exciting opposed to tracking them down and dragging them to the mat. This will be the first coward that Royval has faced in the UFC, so there’s a higher chance than normal that the fight could bust. We still like Royval to eventually track him down and work his way to a submission, likely in the second round, but we wouldn’t be shocked to see Royval win a decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Royval R2 Submission” at +750.
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DFS Implications:
Royval exploded onto the UFC scene in 2020 with back-to-back R2 submission wins as an underdog going against ranked opponents and quickly became a cult hero as he won betters and DFS players truckloads of money. Those two finishes were good for 91 and 111 DraftKings points, but he’s since been finished twice and then won a lower scoring decision most recently. So after a hot start, he’s now only topped 91 DraftKings points in one of his five UFC fights. He’s also landed two just takedowns in those five fights, so despite being a dangerous grappler, he rarely boosts his scoring with takedowns. That makes it tougher for him to return value at his high price tag and now he’s facing an opponent in Schnell who has decided that running away from opponents is his best path to victory. In fairness, he’s probably right as he has no chin and has been knocked out in the first round in all three of his UFC losses. Royval’s uptempo pace still gives him a theoretically high-ceiling if he can either track Schnell down or convince him to engage with him, but this is far from a safe spot for DFS and looks to have serious boom or bust potential. The odds imply Royval has a 68% chance to win, a 46% chance to get a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Even at his cheap price tag, Schnell appears reliant on landing a finish to score well, as his three decision wins have scored 64, 60, and 46 DraftKings points. We continue to look back on a quote from Schnell’s media day interview leading up to his last fight. Schnell was asked, “How big of a deal is it to go and find a way to get a spectacular finish?” Schnell responded, “I think it would be a mistake for me to put thought into looking for anything spectacular. I think that’s been a mistake in the past I’ve made. When I was younger coming up in the UFC, I just wanted to show everybody how outstanding I was, and I’ve just got to go out there and put in 15 focused minutes and I’m a motherfricker...I’m not looking for anything spectacular.” From what we gather, he’s basically saying all the wrong things in terms of us being optimistic about his chances of landing an early finish or even being a solid DFS contributor. He has zero knockdowns in his nine UFC fights and has only landed one takedown in his last seven matches. The biggest thing Schnell has going for him is that five of Perez’s six career losses have come early, all in the first round. The odds imply Schnell has a 32% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Norma Dumont
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Dumont has now won three straight decisions since getting knocked out in the first round of her 2020 UFC debut by Megan Anderson. Her last two wins came in absolutely terrible fights, where her opponents appeared to have zero interest in winning.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Dumont has two first round submission wins on her record and five decision victories. Her only loss came in a first round KO in her 2020 UFC debut. Her two submission wins notably came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0 and 0-2 and Dumont has never finished an opponent who has won a pro fight. Dumont started her career at 135 lb, but has struggled to make that weight in the UFC, missing both times she tried and blaming everyone but herself for the misses. One of those fights was canceled following the miss, while the other ended in a decision win in a fight that Dumont missed weight by 3.5 lb and was taking on an opponent moving up from 125 lb. Dumont's other three UFC fights have all been up at 145 lb.
In her recent 25 minutes staring contest against Aspen Ladd, Dumont had originally been scheduled to face Holly Holm, before Holm dropped out and Ladd stepped in on short notice. After five excruciating rounds, Dumont finished ahead in significant strikes 65-33 and 113-86 in total strikes. Ladd failed to land any of her five takedown attempts, while Dumont landed her only attempt. Ladd’s corner pleaded with her to pick up the pace and wake up, and Ladd made very minor improvements as the fight went on, but it was far too little too late and Dumont cruised to a decision win.
Dumont is a BJJ brown belt and a black belt in Sanda, which is a form of Chinese kickboxing, so she’s somewhat well rounded. She’s never knocked anybody out and hasn’t looked like any sort of submission threat at the UFC level. She seems completely clueless, and is content with grinding out boring decisions and then calling for title shots. She’s a decent striker, but not very aggressive. She’s landed five takedowns in her four UFC fights, with at least one in each fight, but only averages 3.96 SSL/min, and has only topped 68 significant strikes landed one time.
UPDATE: Dumont missed weight by a half pound.
Macy Chiasson
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Looking to bounce back from the first early loss of her career, Chiasson got submitted by Raquel Pennington after taking the fight on short notice and missing weight. That was Pennington’s first finish since 2015, after her previous six wins all went the distance. Chiasson won a pair of decisions over an aging and now retired Marion Reneau and a terrible Shanna Young in her previous two fights. Her only other UFC loss came in a 2019 decision against Lina Lansberg. Prior to those three decisions, Chiasson finished her first three UFC opponents in a round and a half or less, with two TKOs and a rear-naked choke.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Chiasson has two wins by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. She’s been submitted once and has one decision loss. One of her early wins came in round one, two ended in round two, and the other ended in round three. Eight of her nine career fights have made it to the second round. Chiasson fought at 145 lb until her second UFC fight when she dropped down to 135 lb. She went 4-1 at 135 lb, but then competed at, or at least tried to compete at 145 lb for his recent short notice fight, but missed weight by 2.5 lb. She’s now staying at 145 lb for this next fight.
In her recent submission loss to Pennington, Chiasson was able to take Pennington down to close out the first round and the fight was close early on. However, after taking the fight on short notice and missing weight Chiasson slowed down a ton in round two. Pennington was able to land some clean shots and then as Chiasson looked for a health-hearted takedown Pennington locked up a standing guillotine to force a tap without much resistance. It really looked more like Chiasson simply gassing out and giving up than Pennington doing anything exceptional. Pennington finished ahead 45-26 in significant strikes, while Chiasson led in total strikes 64-61 and in takedowns 1-0.
Overall, Chiasson is still a pretty raw fighter who relies on her size and strength to win fights. After failing to land a takedown in her first four UFC fights, she’s landed five in her last three. She only topped 51 significant strikes in one of her seven UFC fights and averages just 4.04 SSL/min. After a promising start to her UFC career, she’s sort of fizzled out over her last four fights, but it will be interesting to see how she looks at 145 lb with a full camp to prepare. She gassed out in her last fight, but you could argue that was due to taking the fight on short notice and having a bad weight cut, however it’s still concerning.
Fight Prediction:
Chiasson will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
Neither one of these two have been very impressive, but Dumont has looked more technically sound than Chiasson. Dumont has still never been taken down in the UFC, so this will likely remain on the feet, where Chiasson will have a sizable 5” reach advantage. Both of them spend a decent amount of time in the clinch, so we could see prolonged periods of time spent with them pushing each other up against the cage. Dumont has been knocked out once in the past, so there’s a chance Chiasson could finish her on the feet, but it’s much more likely that we see them grind out a boring decision, with Dumont likely getting the nod with the judges.
Our favorite bet here is “Dumont Decision” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Dumont is a frustrating fighter to play in DFS as she can be content with sitting and staring at her opponent for 25 minutes, as we saw in her last fight, despite the fact that she claims to be ready for a title shot. She’s completely clueless and entirely untrustworthy, but she was able to score 103 DraftKings points in a 2020 decision win. Chiasson is coming off her first early loss and hasn’t been looking great lately, but is also a physical freak. Both of these ladies have the physical abilities to put on impressive performances, but mentally neither one seems to have put it all together yet. At her expensive price tag, it’s hard to see Dumont cracking winning lineups without a finish. The odds imply she has a 66% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Chiasson has put up big DFS scores in four of her five UFC wins with DraftKings totals of 75, 108, 111, 111 and 102 in her five victories. While three of those scores were driven by finishes, she also had a 108 point performance in her second most recent decision win. She amassed nine and half minutes of control time and landed 154 total strikes (86 significant) to go along with three takedowns to reach that number, but it came against a much lower level fighter. This looks like a tougher matchup for Chiasson to score well without a finish as Dumont has never been taken down in the UFC and only averages 2.20 SSA/min. Chiasson is also coming off the first early loss of her career, which potentially could cause her to come in with a slightly more conservative game plan. While she could potentially serve as a value play at her cheap price tag even in a decision win, she only scored 75 points in her last decision victory and more likely needs a finish here to be useful. The odds imply she has a 34% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Francisco Trinaldo
25th UFC Fight (17-7)Coming off a split decision win over Dwight Grant, Trinaldo has won four of his last five fights and has gone 1-1 in a pair of decisions since moving up to 170 lb. The only time Trinaldo has been finished since 2013 came in a 2017 R2 rear-naked choke against Kevin Lee and Trinaldo has never been knocked out. Five of his last six fights have gone the distance, with the once exception being a 2020 R3 KO win over Jai Herbert. Trinaldo’s last 13 fights have all seen the second round, with 11 of those making it to round three, and nine going the distance.
Now 27-8 as a pro, Trinaldo has nine wins by KO, five by submission, and 13 decisions. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted three times, and has lost five decisions. Trinaldo fought at 155 lb until moving up to 170 lb for his last two fights. He’s a BJJ brown belt and holds a black belt in kickboxing.
In his recent split-decision win over Dwight Grant, we saw a slower paced striking battle without many big moments. The most impactful strike of the fight was an eye poke in the third round that cost Trinaldo a point as he had already been warned and it came immediately after he landed a groin shot. Trinaldo was able to take Grant down and control him for the final three and a half minutes of the fight to secure the win, at least on two of the judges’ score cards. The fight ended with Trinaldo ahead in significant strikes 36-31 and in total strikes 61-41, with each fighter landing one takedown. Overall, it was an uneventful fight decided by a few exchanges.
At 43 years old, Trinaldo appears ageless as he continues to go toe to toe with guys decades younger than him. While Trinaldo hasn't looked like a world beater in his last couple of matches, he finds ways to stay competitive and still has a dangerous left hand. He’ll mix in takedowns when he needs to, but has only landed four in his last seven matches. He’s generally looking to slow fights down into low-volume striking battles where a few exchanges can determine the outcome.
Danny Roberts
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Coming off a close split decision win, Roberts has now won two straight, but could easily be 1-3 in his last four if that decision hadn’t gone his way. That recent decision is Roberts’ only fight since November 2019. He landed a second round knockout in that November 2019 match, after getting knocked out by a flying knee against Michel Pereira and submitted in the third round by Claudio Silva earlier in 2019. Roberts doesn’t have any signature wins in the UFC, but eight of his 11 UFC fights have ended early (4-4).
Now 18-5 as a pro, Roberts has eight wins by KO, five by submission, and five decisions. All five of his losses have come early, with three KOs and two submissions. Roberts has won all three of the decisions he’s been to in the UFC, but the last two of those have been split. He’s been knocked out in under two minutes twice in the UFC, submitted once in the third round, and has another third round KO loss.
In his last fight, Roberts took on a decision machine in wrestler Ramazan Emeev. Roberts did a good job defending takedowns for the most part, as Emeev only landed two of his seven takedown attempts. Roberts also landed one of his own three takedown attempts. In addition to leading in takedowns 2-1 and in control time 2:57-2:38, Emeev finished ahead in significant strikes 40-34 and in total strikes 67-42. While it was a pretty close fight, it seemed like Emeev had done enough to win, but two of the judges disagreed and Roberts won a split decision.
Originally from England, Roberts has been training out of Sanford MMA. He started his MMA training with boxing, and is primarily just a striker, but will sporadically shoot for takedowns, although he has just an 11% takedown accuracy and rarely lands any. He’s a decent striker but has a pretty low fight IQ and constantly finds ways to get finished.
Fight Prediction:
Roberts will have a 4” height and reach advantage and is nine years younger than the 43-year-old Trinaldo.
This feels eerily similar to the Trinaldo/Herbert matchup, where we saw Trinaldo losing most of the fight only to come back and land a third round knockout against an opponent who’s been vulnerable to getting finished. We expect Roberts to take the striking lead early, so Trinaldo will likely struggle to win a decision unless he’s able to land knockdowns or takedowns to make up for his lack of striking. While we like Trinaldo’s chances, at least relative to the odds, of landing a late knockout, it’s still more likely that Roberts is able to point his way to a decision win here.
Our favorite bet here is “Trinaldo R3 KO” at +2200.
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DFS Implications:
You typically want to avoid Trinaldo flights in DFS as they generally end in low-volume decisions. When they do end early, it’s typically Trianldo landing a late KO, and with a lack of volume those still generally don’t score great, with DraftKings totals of 89, 98 and 73 in his last three finishes. The two lower scores came in third round knockouts while his one semi-usable 98 point total ended in a second round knockout. So there’s a good chance he needs a finish in the first two rounds to end up in tournament winning lineups here. The odds imply Trinaldo has a 50% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
With four of his six UFC wins coming early, Roberts has scored decently when he lands a finish with DraftKings totals of 105, 102, 91 and 93, but has struggled to even remotely score well in decisions with scores of just 55, 68, and 57. So this appears pretty cut and dry, even at his cheap price tag you’re relying on Roberts to end this one early to be useful on DraftKings. Trinaldo has never been knocked out in 35 fights and this looks like a tough spot for Roberts to get the finish. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #6
Khaos Williams
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Coming off a third round TKO win over Miguel Baeza, Khaos landed his first career finish in the back half of a fight and just his second finish outside of round one. He exploded onto the UFC scene in 2020 with a pair of first round knockouts that each took 30 seconds or less. He then fought to a pair of decisions (1-1), leading up to his recent win over Baeza. He’s won 10 of his last 11 fights, with five of those victories coming in the first one, one ending in round three, and four ending in decisions. The only fighter to defeat him during that stretch was Michel Pereira.
Now 13-2 as a pro, Khaos has seven wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. He’s never been finished and both of his losses have gone the distance. Six of his eight finishes have come in the first round, one ended early in round two, and the most recent came a minute into round three.
In his last fight, Khaos handed Baeza the first early loss of his career, although Baeza is now on a three fight skid for what it’s worth and went on to get knocked out in the first round of his next fight. While we saw some crazy exchanges in the match between Khaos and Baeza, it was overall a lower volume fight with Khaos finishing ahead in significant strikes 49-31 and in total strikes 60-32 in a fight that lasted just over 11 minutes. Baeza attempted to grapple more in the fight and hunted for a heel hook submission for an extended period of time to close out the first round, but Khaos was able to survive and lead the dance on the feet. Khaos dropped Baeza a minute into round three with a flurry of punches after Baeza threw two leg kicks in a row.
Overall, Khaos is a patient one-dimensional power puncher who generally either knocks opponents out immediately or fights to decisions although he did land his first late round finish in his most recent match. He’s never landed a takedown in the UFC and has only even attempted two. On the other side of things, he has only been taken down by one of his opponents, although Pereira notably landed both of his attempts, while only one of Khaos’ other four opponents actually attempted a takedown (Baeza 0 for 2). Khaos didn’t put up much resistance to being taken down by Pereira, but he did do a good job of getting up from the first takedown while Pereira closed out the third round with the second one.
Randy Brown
13th UFC Fight (8-4)Brown finally made it to the judges for the first time since 2017 in his recent decision win over Jared Gooden, who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released following his loss to Bron. His five previous fights had all ended early (3-2), and three of his four UFC losses have come in round two. Brown has won two straight four of his last five, but he hasn’t won more than two fights in a row since 2015-2016.
Now 14–4 as a pro, Brown has six wins by KO, five by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has one decision loss. Despite 14 of his 18 pro fights ending early, only three of those ended in the first round, and 11 of his last 12 matches have seen the second round, but only four of those went the distance. All three of Brown’s early losses have occurred in round two, with his last two defeats coming by knockout.
In his recent decision win over Jared Gooden, Brown injured his toe early in the match, but was nevertheless able to outland Gooden for three straight rounds as he cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win. Brown did a good job of utilizing his length and controlling the distance in a fight that played out entirely on the feet, as Brown failed on his only takedown attempt. Brown finished ahead 115-81 in significant strikes and 117-87 in total strikes. That was a career best in terms of significant strikes landed for Brown and he had previously only landed more than 61 once in the UFC, which was when he landed 89 against Bryan Barberena in 2019.
A BJJ brown belt, Brown is a well rounded fighter who can compete both on the feet or the mat. He’s landed seven takedowns in his 12 UFC fights, but has never landed more than one in a match. Because Brown is so tall, he looks vulnerable to leg strikes as he has a wider stance and skinny legs. We saw Luque chew up his legs before eventually finishing him late in round two of a 2020 match. Five of Brown’s UFC wins have come early, two by KO and three by submission, but he hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2019.
Fight Prediction:
Brown will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
This has the potential to be a really exciting fight or a suspenseful dud. Both guys are dangerous finishes, and the main question is whether or not that results in a lower volume stalemate or if one of them can connect on something clean and finish the other. It would make sense for Brown to look to grapple more here as that’s where his biggest advantage lies, but he’s been somewhat reluctant to rely heavily on his grappling in the past and he’s never landed more than one takedown in a UFC fight. We haven’t seen Khaos have to defend a ton of grappling, but he’s a one-dimensional striker and hasn’t shown us any sort of ground game. While it would be wise for Brown to make this a grappling match, that doesn’t mean he will, and on the feet Khaos is always a threat to turn the lights out at any moment. If it stays standing we like Khaos to land a knockout, but if Brown comes in with a smart game plan and looks to grapple, we like his chances to either land a submission or win a decision. Based on his more well rounded skill set, we’ll give the advantage to Brown to get the win, but this is a close one that could go either way.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Round Two” at +350.
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DFS Implications:
Khaos is a one-dimensional striker with insane power, but no grappling to boost his DFS scoring. His first two UFC wins came by KO in 30 seconds or less and scored 129 and 127 DraftKings points respectively, but he’s failed to top 78 points in his last three fights, including in his recent third round KO win. So he’s been a R1 KO or bust player and his lone second round finish came back in his second pro fight in 2017. With that said, if he does land a second round knockout there’s a good chance it would score enough to be useful at his mid-range price tag. No one has ever landed more than 81 significant strikes on Brown, and it’s really hard to see Khaos putting up a meaningful score in a decision. Overall, you’re playing Khaos for his ability to knock Brown out, and working in Khaos’ favor, Brown has been knocked out in the second round in each of his last two losses. The odds imply Khaos has a 52% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Despite landing finishes in five of his seven six UFC wins, Brown has often underwhelmed in DFS with DraftKings scores of 90, 96 and somehow just 60 in three of those finishes. To his credit, he did score 110 DraftKings points in each of the other two early wins, but his finishes have generally come later in fights and he lacks the striking volume and takedown numbers to fill up a statsheet, as he only averages 4.21 SSL/min and has never landed more than one takedown in a UFC fight. It would make sense for Brown to look to grapple more here, as that’s where his biggest advantage is in this matchup, but it’s a risky strategy to rely on fighters to make smart decisions, and Brown’s takedown attempts have been erratic. At his cheaper price tag, Brown doesn’t need to put up a slate-breaking score to end up in tournament winning lineups, but overall this looks like a tougher matchup for him to score well as Khaos has never been finished and only averages 3.38 SSA/min. Brown has averaged just 70 DraftKings points in his three decision wins, and he needs a well timed finish to score well. The odds imply he has a 48% chance to win, a 26% chance to get a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Donald Cerrone
38th UFC Fight (23-13, NC)Continuing to drag out a flatlined career, the 39-year-old Cerrone is finally playing his only remaining card as he drops back down to 155 lb for what we can only hope will be his swan song. He started his MMA career at 155 lb before initially moving up to 170 lb in 2016. However, after 10 fights at 170 lb (6-4), he dropped back down to 155 lb in 2019 for four fights (2-2), before moving back up to 170 lb in 2020 following a pair of early losses against Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje. He’s since fought four times at 170 lb (0-3, NC), but after failing to notch a win in any of his last six fights he’s decided to take one more stab at 155 lb. The last time Cerrone won a fight was a 2019 five-round decision over Al Iaquinta, who’s lost three straight and four of his last five. In his last six fights, Cerrone has four TKO losses in the first two rounds, with the last three ending in round. He also fought to decisions in two of his last three fights, one of which he lost and another that initially went down as a draw after Niko Price was deducted a point for a pair of eye pokes, although that was later overturned to a No Contest when Price tested positive for THC.
Now 36-16 as a pro, Cerrone has 10 wins by KO, 17 by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out eight times, submitted once, and has seven decision losses. While he’s a BJJ black belt with 17 submission wins on his record, Cerrone has only landed one submission in his last 17 fights, which came in a 2018 first round armbar against Mike Perry. His other 16 most recent fights have all either ended in knockouts (5-6) or gone the distance (1-3, NC)
In his last fight, Cerrone got knocked out in the first round by Alex Morono, who took the fight on less than week’s notice and his other four most recent wins have all gone the distance. Morono outlanded Cerrone 35-17 in significant strikes, while both fighters went 0 for 2 on takedowns. Morono was able to land multiple heavy shots before forcing a stoppage along the fence with just 20 seconds remaining in the first round.
Cerrone is a legend in the sport, which can make it awkward when it’s time to show him the door, especially if he refuses to leave. This will be his 55th pro fight if you include his two that were later overturned to No Contests. After starting his career all the way back in 2006, he clearly doesn’t have much left in the tank, but the UFC continues to give him one step down in competition after the next to try and send him out on a win. So far those attempts have all been unsuccessful, but now they’re really pulling out all the stops as they essentially bring someone out of retirement for Cerrone to face.
Joe Lauzon
28th UFC Fight (15-12)It makes zero sense that Joe Lauzon is fighting again. He couldn’t have asked for a better way to end his career than with what happened in his last fight when he landed a first round TKO win in front of his home Boston crowd, especially after losing all three of his previous fights and looking like a guy that was already late to hang it up. Lauzon hasn’t fought in 31 months since finishing Jonathan Pearce in the first round of an October 2019 fight. Prior to that win, Lauzon got punished on the feet for two rounds by Chris Gruetzemacher to the point that Lauzon’s corner threw in the towel after the second round. That remains Gruetzemacher’s only KO/TKO win since 2012. Looking back one fight further, Lauzon became the only fighter to get knocked out by Clay Guida since 2010 in a 67 second first round finish. And just before that Lauzon lost a three-round decision to Steven Ray. Lauzon’s second most recent win was a 2017 split decision and you have to go back to 2016 to find his second most recent finish.
Lauzon is now 28-15 as a pro, with nine wins by KO, 17 by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out six times, submitted three more, and has lost six decisions. While Lauzon is a BJJ black belt and 20 of his 43 pro fights have ended in submissions (17-3), his last 14 matches have all ended in either TKOs (4-3) or decisions (2-5). He’s fought his entire career at 155 lb. All six of his career KO losses have come in the first two rounds, with two ending in round one and four in round two.
In his last fight, Lauzon was able to hurt a debuting Jonathan Pearce on the feet before taking him down a minute into the first round. At that point he caught him in a really awkward reverse half position, where he was able to pin Pearce's arm behind his hand leaving him defenseless to ground and pound and the fight was quickly stopped. Pearce dropped down to 145 lb following the lopsided loss and has since won three straight, while Lauzon hasn’t fought since.
Overall, Lauzon is another extremely washed up fighter, who has already maxed out his lifetime damage meter. He comes out aggressively throwing strikes in the first round, but has been fading quickly after that initial burst lately. None of his last three fights made it past the 10 minute mark and two of the three ended in 93 seconds or less. While he’s a BJJ black belt with 17 submission wins on his record, he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2012. His last three decisions have all been split/majority.
Fight Prediction:
Cerrone will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. Lauzon is two years younger than the 39-year-old Cerrone.
Hopefully this is a retirement match for both guys, as both of these have looked ready to hang it up for quite some time. Lauzon hasn’t competed in 932 days, but he’s still won a fight more recently than Cerrone, who is winless in his last six. Cerrone has been a slow starter at times, while Lauzon’s last three finishes have all come in under three minutes. Both guys are BJJ black belts, but we expect them to be looking to knock each other out. While Lauzon’s two and half years away add a ton of uncertainty as to how he’ll look, based on his past fights, we would expect him to come out aggressively looking for an early knockout and likely fading if he doesn’t get it. Cerrone has been knocked out in the first round in his last three early losses, hasn’t fought in a year, is now 39 years old, and will now be cutting back down to 155 lb for the first time since 2019. That’s a pretty good recipe for getting knocked out, the only question is how much does Lauzon actually have left in the tank? Our guess is not much but who knows after all of this time away. If he can put together a combo and land a few clean shots he could very well get a first round knockout, but if that doesn't happen then there’s a good chance he’ll gas out and Cerrone will be able to finish him, likely in the second round. There’s also the possibility that you put two washed up fighters in the Octagon and neither one has the ability to finish the other and we see a sloppy brawl that goes the distance. With that said, we like this to end by knockout in the first two rounds, and while the first guy to land something really clean should get the win, we’ll actually give the slight edge to Lauzon to knock Cerrone out in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Lauzon R1 KO” at +1400.
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DFS Implications:
Now 39 years old, Cerrone is winless in his last six outings and appears to have very little left to give. He’s been knocked out in four of those, with his last three early losses coming in the first round. Now he’ll be moving back down to 155 lb for the first time since 2019, which adds some additional uncertainty into the mix. He lost by TKO in the first two rounds in his last two fights at 155 lb. Historically, his wins generally come early, and while his last victory came in a five-round decision, his eight prior to that didn’t require the judges. He’ll now face an opponent who hasn’t fought in 31 months and whose last two losses both came by TKO in the first two rounds against guys who basically never knock anybody out (Chris Gruetzemacher, only KO/TKO win since 2012 & Clay Guida, only KO/TKO since 2010). So if Cerrone was ever going to get one final finish, this would be the time. Cerrone has scored well when he has landed finishes, so while it’s hard to trust him, he has shown a solid ceiling in the past. One thing to consider with Cerrone is that despite his three-year losing streak he’s still been fairly popular in DFS as the field loves chasing ghosts, and in his last two fights he was 30% and 38% owned on DraftKings, albeit on a much smaller slate in the second of those. His high price tag could keep his ownership in check, but that remains to be seen. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Lauzon hasn’t fought since October 2019 and had appeared to be retired, but apparently getting to ride off into the sunset with Dusty Britches was enough for Lauzon to saddle up one final time. Lauzon has lost three of his last four fights and looked rough along the way. His only win since 2017 came in a 93 second TKO against a debuting Jonathan Pearce, where Lauzon was basically able to dislocate Pearce’s shoulder and pin it behind his head while he smashed him with ground and pound. That appeared to be sort of a flukey position, but it did at least show that Lauzon had something left to give—at least back in 2019. That fight also took place in front of his home Boston crowd, and had seemed like the perfect finish to end a career on. He must really like this matchup to give it one more go as he couldn’t have asked for a better final fight after losing three straight prior to that. Lauzon only scored 51 DraftKings points in his last decision win and is generally reliant on landing finishes to score well in DFS. While he hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2013-2014, four of his last five wins have come early, with his last three finishes ending in the first three minutes, and he generally scores well when he does win. He has a non-existent floor but a high ceiling, in a high-variance favorable matchup. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Ovince Saint Preux
25th UFC Fight (13-11)This will be a rematch of a 2014 fight that OSP won with a 34 second first round knockout. Since then, Rua has gone 5-2-1, while OSP has gone 8-10. That fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it, but OSP clipped Rua with a left hook as he came charging in and then finished him on the mat with a series of left hands.
Continuing to move back and forth between Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight over his last four fights, OSP has been knocked out in the second round in two straight fights and has lost three of his last four and five of his last seven. Interestingly, five of his last six fights have ended in round two (2-3). He first attempted to move up to Heavyweight in 2020 and lost a split decision to Ben Rothwell. Then he moved back down to Light Heavyweight and knocked out Alonzo Menifield in the second round. He stayed at Light Heavyweight for his next match, but after getting knocked out in round two by Jamahal Hill, OSP moved back up to Heavyweight for his most recent fight—only to see the same results as he got knocked out by Tanner Boser in the second round. Now OSP will be moving back down to Light Heavyweight, but he looked bad at both weight classes in his last two fights. It’s also worth pointing out that OSP missed weight by 1.5 lb the last time he competed at Light Heavyweight, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Now 25-16 as a pro, OSP has 12 wins by KO, eight by submission, and just five decisions. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted three times, and has lost nine of the 14 decisions he’s been to. Ten of OSP’s last 12 fights have ended early (6-4), while he’s lost the last four decisions he’s been to. Despite only going to two decisions in his last 12 fights, the last time one of his fights ended in the first round was in 2018, and OSP is generally regarded as a slow starter.
In his recent R2 KO loss to Boser, OSP had actually been preparing to fight down at Light Heavyweight against Maxim Grishin, but Grishin withdrew and Boser offered to step in if the fight was moved to Heavyweight and OSP agreed. OSP showed up at 230 lb, while Boser was 10 lb heavier at 240 lb. Boser took the lead from the start, outlanding OSP 25-8 in strikes in round one. The second round started the same way the first round ended with Boser controlling things on the feet. However, OSP was then able to get the fight to the ground. After a minute of controlling Boser on the mat, a controversial moment occurred as Boser appeared to grab the fence to pull himself back up. Boser landed a big knee to the head of OSP followed by a series of punches to get the finish at that point, but the sequence began with the alleged fence grab. It was actually pretty hard to tell if Boser actually grabbed the fence or simply pushed off of it, but the results are the same either way.
Overall, OSP is pretty well rounded and can finish opponents both on the feet or the mat, but at 39 years old we just wonder how much he has left in the tank. The only time he’s looked decent in the last few years was when he knocked out Alonzo Menifield in 2020 and other than that he’s been highly disappointing. He’s only landed one takedown in his last four fights and has been sporadic with his attempts. He doesn’t throw much volume and hasn’t topped 42 significant strikes landed in any of his last 12 fights, which helps to explain why he’s gone just 5-9 with the judges in his career.
Mauricio Rua
23th UFC Fight (11-10)Now 40 years old, MMA legend Mauricio Rua hasn’t competed in 18 months following a second round TKO loss to Paul Craig. He’s 2-2-1 in his last five fights, but has only competed five times since 2017. His most recent win came in a trilogy fight against a fellow washed up fighter in Antonio Rogerio Nogueira that ended in a split decision. Rua’s only other win since 2017 came in a 2018 R3 TKO against an injured Tyson Pedro who blew his knee out earlier in the match.
Now 27-12-1 as a pro, Rua started his career all the way back in 2002. He has 21 wins by KO, just one by submission (2006 Kneebar), and five decisions. He’s been knocked out six times, submitted three more, and has three decision losses. Rua’s last 11 fights have all ended in either KO/TKOs (3-4) or decisions (3-0-1). Seven of his last eight fights have seen the second round, six made it to round three, and four went the distance. His last five losses have all come early and he hasn’t lost a decision since 2012. His last two finishes both came by third round TKO and he hasn’t finished an opponent before the third round since 2013.
His last fight against Paul Craig lasted just a round and a half, with Craig controlling Rua for just under half of that. Rua didn’t do much in the fight and Craig finished ahead 29-10 in significant strikes and 54-25 in total strikes, while also landing 4 of his 8 takedown attempts with a little under four minutes of control time. After Craig took Rua to the mat midway through round two, Rua seemed to gas out and give up as he found himself face down on the mat absorbing ground strikes from Craig. Rua made no attempt to escape the position and instead simply tapped from the strikes in an embarrassing loss.
Overall, Rua is a washed up knockout specialist who has nothing left to fight for or prove in his career. It’s surprising he didn’t hang it up after the 2020 loss to Craig and his best fighting days are nothing more than a distant memory. He’s only finished two opponents since 2013 and the most recent of those was due to a knee injury. He’s never landed a ton of striking volume and only averages 3.57 SSL/min, but will mix sporadic takedown attempts.
Fight Prediction:
OSP will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
With a combined age of 79, this is a gross fight that only the most sentimental of fans can truly appreciate. These two fighters have 46 combined UFC fights and have also fought once in the past, although that was back in 2014 and feels like a lifetime ago. That fight ended in an early OSP knockout and while both guys have done nothing but age since then, that’s still how we expect this fight to end as well. If they both look completely terrible, it is possible we see it go to a disappointing decision, at which point we could potentially see Rua win a close split decision, as OSP has fared horribly with the judges. However, we like OSP to land a knockout, most likely in the second round.
Our favorite bet here is “OSP Wins by KO” at +250.
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DFS Implications:
Despite coming in at 39 years old, OSP is the younger fighter in this dusty matchup. He’s coming off back-to-back second round knockouts, and has experimented some with competing at Heavyweight recently (0-2), but will now be moving back down to Light Heavyweight. While his last six wins have all come early, none of them have scored very well in DFS, as he averaged just 87 DraftKings points in those victories. He’s a slow starter who doesn’t throw much volume and only shoots for takedowns sporadically. At his expensive price tag, he likely needs a first round finish to be useful and his last seven fights have all made it to the second round. And even in his last two first round wins, he still scored just 95 and 94 points in a pair of submission wins, showing that even with an early win he’s fully capable of failing to score well. The only reasons to consider playing OSP here are that he’s matched up against a washed up 40-year-old fighter coming off an 18 month layoff, he has a very high chance of landing a finish, and he’ll be low owned in tournaments. While those are all pretty compelling reasons, he’s still a very gross play who will have a tough time cracking winning lineups even if he does get a finish. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
In a past life Rua was a DFS gold mine, but those days are well behind him and his only finish since 2017 came in a 2018 third round TKO after Tyson Pedro suffered a knee injury. Of course anything can happen in a fight and OSP has been knocked out in two straight fights, but Rua doesn't appear to have much left in the tank so it’s hard to get excited about playing him. He doesn’t land much striking volume, as he averages just 3.57 SSL/min and even at his cheap price tag he likely needs a finish here to be useful. He only scored 72 DraftKings points in his last decision and OSP has only been taken down twice in his last nine fights, making it tougher for Rua to pad his score with grappling. The gross nature of this fight between two aging/struggling veterans does add some uncertainty to the mix, but we’d be surprised if either guy ended in winning lineups. The odds imply Rua has a 33% chance to win, an 18% chance it comes early, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Michael Chandler
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Looking to bounce back from two straight losses, Chandler hasn’t won a fight since landing an explosive R1 KO in his 2021 UFC debut against Dan Hooker, who’s now lost four of his last five with the last three of those losses ending in round one. In fairness to him, he came close to finishing Charles Oliveira at the end of the first round in his title shot and then survived to see a decision in a wild brawl against Justin Gaethje in his last fight.
Chandler is now 22-7 as a pro, with 10 wins by KO, seven by submission, and five decisions. Five of his seven submissions occurred in 2013 or before and he only has one since 2015, which came in 2018. He’s been knocked out four times and has lost three decisions, but he’s never been submitted. Four of his last five losses ended in knockouts. All 10 of his knockout victories have come in the first two rounds, as have six of his seven submissions and he appears the most dangerous early on in fights. Overall, 13 of his 17 finishes have come in round one, three have ended in round two, and his only late round finish was a 2011 R4 submission win over Eddie Alvarez. Three of his four early losses have also come in the first two rounds, and the only time he’s been finished after the six minute mark was in a 2014 R4 TKO. The only one of his last 12 fights not to either end in the first round or in a decision was his TKO loss to Oliveira that came 19 seconds into round two.
In his recent loss to Gaethje, both guys traded haymakers and leg strikes, but Gaethje had the more impactful moments and looked extremely close to getting Chandler out of there at multiple points. Gaethje led 26-11 in leg strikes and appeared to be causing real damage with each one he landed. Gaethje also did a great job of defending Chandler’s takedown attempts, as Chandler was only able to land one of his six attempts with essentially no control time as Gaethje rolled/flipped through a slam late in the fight. Gaethje finished ahead 116-103 in significant strikes and 133-104 in total strikes as he won a unanimous decision.
Chandler was the three-time Lightweight Bellator Champion before making the switch to the UFC at 34 years old. Chandler’s last three Bellator fights all ended in first round knockouts, with him winning the last two.He then waited on the sidelines for a few months until the right opponent came along. After trying but failing to agree to terms with Tony Ferguson, Chandler eventually squared off with #6 ranked Dan Hooker, who he knocked out in the first round leading up to his recent pair of losses. Now he’ll circle back to the Ferguson matchup that he had initially been interested in. Chandler was a D1 NCAA All-American wrestler at Mizzou, so while most of his recent wins have been by early KOs, he notably has a wrestling background to rely on. He started off fighting at 165-170 lb as a pro, but has been competing at 155 lb since 2011 when he moved down a weight class following his fifth pro fight. He’s generally looked to land bombs and knock guys out, but we did see him attempt six takedowns in his last fight, although he only landed one of those and did nothing with it. Now he’ll face an actual submission threat, so he may be even less inclined to take the fight to the mat.
Tony Ferguson
20th UFC Fight (15-4)Just under a year removed from his third straight loss, Ferguson has lost nine straight rounds on the judges’ score cards going back to the third round of his loss to Justin Gaethje. He was shut out in two straight decision losses against high-level grapplers in Beneil Dariush and Charles Oliveira, after getting mauled by Justin Gaethje for five rounds. Ferguson was able to win the second round against Gaethje on two of the three judges’ scorecards, but that’s been the only round he’s won in any of those fights. With his last two fights playing out almost entirely on the mat, it’s been two years since we’ve seen Ferguson involved in a stand up battle and it’s hard to know how much his striking game has declined over that period as overall he appears to be fading rapidly. For what it’s worth, Ferguson had won 12 straight fights prior to his recent skid.
Now 25-6 as a pro, Ferguson has 12 wins by KO, eight by submission, and five decisions. His lone KO loss came in the 5th round of his fight against Gathje, with his only other early defeat coming in a first round triangle choke in a 2009 match before he joined the UFC. His other four losses have all gone the distance. His last 10 fights have all made it past the first round, with six seeing a third round and four going the distance. Four of his five early wins during that stretch came in round two, with the other ending in round three. Ferguson started his career at 170 lb before moving down to 155 lb in 2011, following his UFC debut.
In his recent loss to Dariush, Ferguson basically got controlled on the mat for the entire match. Dariush took him down 90 seconds in and Ferguson was never able to get back up. Dariush quickly returned the fight to the ground in round two and patiently waited on Ferguson to give up on a half-hearted choke attempt before moving him away from the cage and continuing to go to work on the mat. Dariush attempted to lock up a heel hook that appeared to be doing some damage as Ferguson grimaced in pain, but Ferguson’s next-level toughness allowed him to stay in the fight. Round three was rinse and repeat for Dariush as he took the fight back to the mat 30 seconds in and again spent the entire round in control.
Ferguson is now 38 years old and coming off three straight losses and was absolutely dominated on the mat in his last two fights. He fought through violent armbar and heel hook attempts in those two fights that could have caused lasting damage, after absorbing 143 very significant strikes from Justin Gaethje just before that. So overall, Ferguson’s body has taken a head to toe beating in his last three fights. While he’s theoretically still dangerous both on the feet and the mat, he’s looked like a shell of his past self in his last few fights and there’s no reason to think the year off changed things at his age. While Ferguson is a jiu-jitsu black belt with a background in wrestling and a dangerous submission threat, he hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 10 fights (0 for 5 on his attempts) or even attempted one in his last six. It will be interesting to see how long Ferguson’s acclaimed durability lasts at this stage in his career, but it’s sure to get tested here.
Fight Prediction:
Ferguson will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, but Chandler is two years younger than the 38-year-old Ferguson.
This fight looks like a support group for Justin Gaethje abuse victims. The only fighter that has faced Gaethje and gone on to win their immediate next fight was Dustin Poirier, and you could make an argument that guys leave part of their soul in the Octagon after going to war with Gaethje. That may be less useful here considering both of these two have been on the wrong end of a Gaethje beatdown, but it will be interesting to see how Chandler responds to that recent loss. Ferguson has been insanely durable throughout his career, and his only TKO loss came in the 5th round against Gaethje. Considering the majority of Chandler’s early wins have come in round one, it may be asking a lot for him to get a finish here, although it’s hard to know where Ferguson’s body is at right now at 38-years-old and a year removed from his third straight loss. As long as Ferguson has managed to hang onto his durability,despite the rest of his game declining, then we expect this fight to go the distance, likely in another crazy brawl. However, both guys will likely have their chins tested here, so there’s always a chance we see someone get knocked out. We expect Chandler to land the more impactful strikes, while there’s a good chance we see little to no grappling. We like Chandler to win a decision although you never know how Arizona judging will go down and seeing a crazy split-decision win for Ferguson wouldn’t be completely shocking.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Chandler is a powerful striker with a history of early knockouts, but he also has a background in wrestling. He’s coming off a decision loss in a crazy brawl against Justin Gaethje and we’ve seen UFC fighters struggle in their next fight after going to war with Gaethje (1-6). Chandler now takes on a washed up but so far durable Tony Ferguson, who’s only KO/TKO loss came in the 5th round, also against Gaethje. The wild card here is that Ferguson is now 38 years old and hasn’t fought in a year following three straight losses, so it’s tougher to know exactly how bad he’ll look. It would still be surprising if Ferguson all of a sudden wasn’t durable at all, but Chandler throws violent punches with fight-ending intentions, so it shouldn’t take long to find out. As the most expensive fighter on the slate, Chandler will need a well timed knockout to end up in tournament winning lineups and he notably hasn’t finished an opponent beyond the first round since 2015. Also working against him, Ferguson hasn’t been knocked down in his last four fights and only once in his last seven. Therefore, he appears to be a round one KO or bust play who will end up being highly owned in DFS. After suffering two straight losses, we expect Chandler’s primary focus will be on winning as opposed to landing a highlight reel finish, but you never know with this guy. The odds imply he has a 76% chance to win, a 51% chance to end it early and a 24% chance it comes in R1.
Ferguson checks in as the cheapest fighter on the slate, which should have the lifelong tony truthers at full mast. Fortunately for the rest, that crowd has dwindled in recent years, so the impact they have on Ferguson’s ownership overall may be less impactful than on past slates. We still expect him to be over owned relative to his chances of landing a finish, but it should fall short of laughable insanity. Ferguson has relied on finishes to score well in three-round fights in the past, as he’s averaged just 66 DraftKings points in his past three-round decision wins. So even at his ridiculously cheap price tag, there’s a good chance he wouldn’t crack winning lineups with a decision win, unless we see a card where all the other favorites win, which is always possible on PPV cards in the larger Octagon. Chandler has never been submitted, and Ferguson hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 10 fights to set up a submission anyways. Ferguson’s only two KO/TKO wins since 2014 both ended in post round two doctor/corner stoppages, so despite the fact that Chandler has been knocked out in four of his last five losses, it’s hard to have much confidence in Ferguson getting a finish here unless we see another flukey stoppage caused by an injury. Chandler was also able to take a massive amount of damage from Gaethje and survive, showing that he’s still durable, at least at times. Overall, Ferguson looks like an over owned hail mary play where you’re relying on some sort of flukey finish. The odds imply he has a 24% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Rose Namajunas
13th UFC Fight (9-3)The queen of vengeance, Namajunas is stepping into the fifth rematch of her career in just her 15th pro fight. She went 4-0 in those first four rematches after going 2-2 in the initial fights. Now she’ll be looking to avenge a loss to Carla Esparza that she suffered all the way back in 2014, in what was her UFC debut, The Ultimate FIghter 20 Finale, and the first ever women’s Strawweight title fight. In that fight. In that fight, Esparza was able to rely on her wrestling from the start as she landed three takedowns in the first round alone. Namajunas was able to do a good job of not allowing Esparza to control her for too long on the ground, but that’s about all she was able to do. Esparza continued to take Namajunas down and was eventually able to find her back and force a tap through a rear-naked choke early in round three. That remains the only time Namajunas has ever been submitted and the only time Esparza has submitted anybody in the UFC. For what it’s worth, Namajunas was just 22 years old and in her fourth pro fight for that initial matchup, while Esparza was 27 and fighting for the 12th time as a pro.
Since that loss, Namajunas has gone 9-2 in her last 11 UFC fights, with five of her last six fights being for the Strawweight belt (4-1). Her last six fights have come against three opponents, as she’s immediately run it back in each of those matchups. After winning the Strawweight belt against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a November 2017 R1 KO, Namajunas then defended the belt in a five-round decision against Jedrzejczyk in April 2018. Following the pair of wins over Jedrzejczyk, Namajunas lost the belt to Andrade, before defeating Andrade in a three-round decision in her next fight—although that notably came after Andrade had already lost the belt to Weili. Then Namajunas most recently won the belt back from Weili in a 78 second R1 KO and then immediately defended it in a rematch via a split-decision win over Weili. Namajunas has also faced Tecia Torres twice in her career and after losing a 2013 decision to Torres in Namajunas’ third pro fight, she avenged the loss with a 2016 decision win over Torres.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Namajunas has two wins by KO, five by submission, and four decisions. She’s been knocked out once (2019 R2 KO by slam against Andrade), submitted once (2014 R3 RNC against Esparza), and has two decision losses. Her last two and three of last four decisions have been split (2-1). Namajunas holds black belts in Taekwondo and Karate and is a BJJ brown belt.
In her recent title defense against Zhang Weili, Namajunas got taken down 5 times on 11 attempts, although Weili only finished with three and a half minutes of control time. Namajunas narrowly finished ahead in significant strikes 86-83, while Weili led in total strikes 162-130. It seemed like a close fight that could have gone either way, but generally we see those decisions go for the current champ.
Namajunas is very quick with great movement and footwork. She trains in Colorado with Trevor Wittman and Valentina Shevchenko. Larger 30 ft cages, like the one that will be used in this next fight, seem to benefit her style as she likes to float away from contact in open space as she controls the distance. She’s also a decent grappler and capable of giving opponents some different submission looks, however all four of her career submission wins have ended in rear-naked chokes. She also has just a 51% takedown defense and has been taken down 14 times on 29 attempts in her 12 UFC fights. Her last four opponents to attempt a takedown all landed at least one, and she was notably taken down five times on 11 attempts in her last fight. Namajunas has only had to defend more than three takedowns three times in her career. She lost two of those matches before barely winning a split decision in the last one.
This will be Namajunas’ 8th five-round fight in the UFC (5-2) and seventh title fight (4-2). Her first five round match came in her 2014 UFC debut against Carla Esparza and Namajunas was submitted in the third round. Two fights later Namajunas took on Paige VanZant, in her only five round fight where a belt wasn’t on the line, and Namajunas won with a 5th round submission. Two years after that, Namajunas got her first title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and won the belt with a first round KO. She then defended the belt in a rematch that went the full 25 minutes. After beating the former champ in back-to-back title fights, Namajunas was knocked out by Jessica Andrade via R2 slam in a 2019 title fight. Two fights later she knocked out Zhang Weili in 78 seconds to win the belt back, and followed it up with a split-decision win in her most recent title fight. Both of her losses in title fights have come early (R3 submission & R2 KO). Two of her wins came by R1 KO, while the other two went the distance.
Carla Esparza
14th UFC Fight (9-4)Coming off her first early win since her 2014 submission win over Namajunas, Esparza notched a second round TKO victory over Yan Xiaonan. Esparza’s previous seven wins had all gone the distance. She’s on a five fight winning streak, with wins over several tough opponents during that stretch in Virna Jandiroba, Alexa Grasso, Michelle Waterson, Marina Rodriguez, and Yan Xiaonan. Esparza is habitually in close decisions, with her last three and seven of her 13 career decisions being split or majority (one judge ruling it a tie).
Now 18-6 as a pro, Esparza has four wins by TKO, four by rear-naked choke submission, and 10 decisions. She’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has three decision losses. Her last 14 fights have all made it past the first round, with 12 of those seeing round three, and 10 going the distance.
In her recent win over Xiaonan, Esparza wasted no time getting the fight to the mat as she landed a pair of back-to-back takedowns just five seconds in. She was able to control Xiaonan for the entire round on the mat while she beat her up with ground and pound and sliced her open with an elbow towards the end of the round. Esparza returned the fight to the mat 30 seconds into round two and worked her way to a crucifix position where she was able to batter Xiaonan until the fight was stopped mid way through the round. Esparza finished the fight landing all three of her takedown attempts with 7:18 of control time in a fight that lasted just 7:58. She also finished ahead in significant strikes 27-5 and in total strikes 170-31 in the one-sided beatdown.
A former All-American D1 wrestler, Esparza is a one-dimensional wrestler who comes into every fight with the game plan of taking it to the mat. She’s landed 42 takedowns on 113 attempts (37%) in her 13 UFC fights and is 8-1 in fights where she’s landed more than two takedowns, with the one loss coming in a 2017 split-decision. She attempted at least nine takedowns in her last four fights to make it past the second round and has double digit attempts in six of her 13 UFC fights. She’s only failed to attempt seven or more takedowns in three of her 13 fights. Two of those came in 2018 losses where she was taken down four or more times herself and the other was in her recent second round TKO win.
This will be the 4th five-round fight of Esparza’s career and third in the UFC. Her first five-round fight ended in a 2013 decision win over Bec Rawlings just before Esparza went on The Ultimate Fighter. A year later Esparza submitted Namajunas in the third round of Esparza’s second five-round fight. One fighter later, Esparza lost the Strawweight belt to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a second round knockout in her only other fight scheduled to go five rounds. So overall, Esparza has only been past the third round once in her career and that was in a 2013 fight prior to joining the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Namajunas will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. She’s also five years younger than the 34-year-old Esparza
Rematches always add another dynamic to fights as you have to decide how much weight to put on the results of the first fight. Obviously a ton has changed in the last seven and half years since these two last fought, and Namajunas was just 22 years old and going into her fourth pro fight at that time. She’s since won the Strawweight belt on two different occasions and successfully defended it once both times. Namajunas is going into her 7th UFC title fight (4-2), while this will just be Esparza’s third (1-1). We’re certainly not going to completely ignore the fact that Esparza was able to take Namajunas down five times on seven attempts in less than two and a half rounds the first time they fought. Namajunas has just a 51% career takedown defense and that continues to be her biggest weakness. Therefore, going against a wrestler like Esparza appears to be the toughest matchup Namajunas could ask for and Esparza is definitely very live here to pull off the upset. Namajunas is a better striker, but that won’t matter if she’s on her back and we expect Esparza to be looking to take this fight to the ground early and often. One question mark will be Esparza’s cardio if this fight makes it to the championship rounds. Esparza has only been in one fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes in her career, and that was all the way back in 2013 when she won a five-round decision. On the other side of things, Namajunas is 3-0 in fights that have lasted longer than three rounds and trains at elevation in Colorado, so we have no concerns with her ability to go five rounds. It would not be at all surprising to see Esparza control Namajunas on the mat for the first half of the fight only to see Namajunas take over in the back half and force a close split-decision. We generally see close decisions go in favor of the current champion in that situation. If Esparza wants to pull off the upset, she’ll either need a finish or a decisive victory, both of which are very possible. Esparza looked great in her last outing and if she can keep that momentum going we like her chances to pull off the upset in a wrestling heavy victory with either a mid round finish, or more likely in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is Esparza’s ML at +185.
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DFS Implications:
In her seven UFC five-round fights, Namajunas has put up DraftKings scores of 101, 102, 33 (L), 79, 107, 142 and 17 (L). Her one explosion spot came in a fifth round submission against a terrible Paige VanZant, where Namajunas put on a dominating grappling performance with eight takedowns, nearly 17 minutes of control time, four submission attempts and 104 total strikes. She also put up respectable scores in her recent five-round decision win and her pair of R1 KO wins over Jedrzejczyk and Weili, but failed to score well in her other five-round decision win where she totaled just 79 DraftKings points. Now facing a solid wrestler like Esparza, it’s unlikely we see Namajunas dominate the grappling exchanges and Esparza’s constant grappling pressure should reduce the amount of striking volume that Namajunas is able to accumulate. That will likely leave Namajunas dependent on landing a finish to return value at her expensive price tag and even then she’ll still need to outscore the other high priced fighters to end up in winning lineups. Esparza has been finished in half of her six career losses, but we’re still not overly excited about Namajunas’ outlook here. Not only is there a good chance that she fails to crack the winning lineup with a victory, there’s also a pretty decent chance she loses the fight. The odds imply she has a 66% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Esparza’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting lends itself more towards the DraftKings scoring system based on control time and ground strikes. She’s averaged 97 DraftKings points in her nine UFC wins, with 100 or more in six of those. The only times she’s struggled to score well have come in three-round decisions, which is not a possible outcome in this matchup. She’s coming off a career performance where she put up a massive 138 point DraftKings score, which will surely drive her ownership up some. The first time these two fought back in 2014, Esparza landed five takedowns on seven attempts in just under 11 minutes before finishing the fight with a submission. Esparza was on pace to score 136 DraftKings points and 120 points on FanDuel had that fight gone the distance and it’s hard to see her failing at her cheap price tag if she can pull off the upset. Namajunas has just a 51% career takedown defense and there’s no reason to think Esparza won’t be able to get her to the mat. The odds imply Esparza has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Charles Oliveira
30th UFC Fight (20-8, NC)Oliveira is fresh off his first title defense after winning the vacant Lightweight belt with an early R2 TKO against Michael Chandler in his previous match. Oliveira was in real trouble in the first round against Chandler, but showed improved resilience as he fought through some early adversity to remain in the fight. He then dropped Chandler with a perfect left hand to start round two before finishing him with strikes along the fence. Since losing to Paul Felder in a 2017 R2 TKO, Oliveira has won 10 straight fights. Nine of those 10 wins have come early with six submissions and three KOs. While three of his last four fights have made it to the third round, his previous nine fights all ended in the first two rounds.
Now 32-8 as a pro, Oliveira has only been to four decisions (3-1) in 40 pro fights and 24 of his 29 early wins occurred in the first two rounds, with the other five ending in third round submissions. He has nine wins by KO, 20 by submission and three decisions. He holds the UFC record for the most submission wins as 15, which is four ahead of Demian Maia who’s in second with 11. Seven of Oliveira’s eight career losses have also ended early, with four KOs and three submissions. Three of those KO/TKO losses occurred in the first round, while his most recent occurred in round two. His three submission losses have been spread out across the first three rounds, meaning that six of his seven early losses ended in the first two rounds. So in total, 36 of his 40 pro fights have ended with a finish, with 30 of those ending in the opening two rounds. While Oliveira is a finishing machine, his only first round finish in his last seven fights was a 2019 R1 KO against Jared Gordon. Over that recent stretch, he’s finished three opponents in round two and two in round three, while Tony Ferguson is the only person to go the distance with Oliveira over his last 17 fights, dating back to 2014.
Oliveira started his UFC career at 155 lb, but after starting out just 2-2 plus a No Contest he dropped down to 145 lb in 2012. Oliveira then went 7-4 at 145 lb before moving back up to 155 lb in 2016. He lost two of his first three fights back up at 155 lb, but has since won 10 straight to bring his overall UFC Lightweight record to 13-4 plus a No Contest.
In his recent title defense, Oliveira again had to deal with some early adversity as he got dropped by Dustin Poirier in the first round and outlanded 54-48 in significant strikes in the first five minutes, while failing to land either of his takedown attempts in the round. Oliveira unsurprisingly came out looking to grapple in round two, and while he failed on his initial takedown attempt, he was able to grab Poiriers arm with the help of a blatantly illegal glove grab and drag him down to the mat with him. Oliveira spent the rest of the round in top position landing ground and pound and the illegal glove grab appeared to be the pivotal moment in the fight. Oliveira was able to immediately take Poirier’s back on the feet to open the third round and he quickly locked in a rear-naked choke and forced a tap without the two ever going to the mat.
Overall, Oliveira is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt and one of the most dangerous grapplers on the planet and has shown a much improved standup game since joining Chute Boxe Diego Lima in 2018. He’s a technical striker who uses all eight of his weapons and changes things up well. His striking defense remains his biggest weakness, and we’ve seen him get hurt on the feet in the first round of each of his last two fights. However, while he was widely regarded as a quitter early in his career, largely due to how his fights with Max Holloway and Paul Felder went, he’s shown more resilience lately.
This will be Oliveira’s fifth UFC five-round fight and he has never been past the third round in his career. He went 3-1 in his first four five-round fights in the UFC, with a 2021 R3 submission win over Dustin Poirier, a 2021 R2 KO win over Michael Chandler, a 2020 R3 submission win over Kevin Lee, and a 2015 R1 TKO loss to Max Holloway down at 145 lb. So he’s actually 3-0 in Lightweight five round fights. If this somehow makes it to the championship rounds it will be interesting to see how Oliveira’s cardio looks considering he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes, but we’d be surprised if it lasted that long.
UPDATE: Oliveira missed weight by a half pound and even with the extra hour to try and cut it he still came in a half pound over. He was stripped of the belt and not be eligible to win the title in this fight, while Gaethje will be eligible to win it.
Justin Gaethje
10th UFC Fight (6-3)After getting submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov in an October 2020 title fight, Gaethje took 13 months off before bouncing back with a decision win over Michael Chandler in a crazy brawl. Gaethje has won five of his last six fights and that was the only time he’s required the judges in his last 13 fights dating back to 2014—three years before he joined the UFC. His first seven UFC fights all ended in knockouts (5-2) leading up to his submission loss to Khabib in his second most recent fight. The only fighter to ever get Gaethje down more than once in a fight is Khabib, who landed two of his three takedown attempts. Gaethje was able to remain on his feet for most of the first round, but Khabib got him down with 40 seconds left in the first round and Gaethje didn’t have any answers in terms of grappling on the mat and Khabib nearly completed an armbar to close out the round. Khabib got the fight back to the ground a minute into round two and aggressively mounted Gaethje and rolled back into a triangle choke that put Gaethje to sleep. Gaethje was able to beat up Khabib’s leg in the fight, but on the mat he looked helpless. Luckily for him, Gaethje has a solid 73% takedown defense and it’s rare that he finds himself having to grapple off his back. He’s been taken down five times on 19 attempts in nine UFC fights and two of those came in his first two UFC fights. The only fighter able to get Gaethje down in his last seven fights other than Khabib was Chandler who landed one of his six attempts.
Now 23-3 as a pro, Gaethje has 19 wins by KO, one by submission and three decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and submitted once. His lone submission loss came in the second round of a 2020 fight against Khabib, while his two KO/TKO losses came in his second and third UFC fights in a 2017 R3 KO against Eddie Alvarez and a 2018 R4 TKO against Dustin Poirier. He bounced back from those with three straight first round knockouts followed by a fifth round TKO win over Tony Ferguson, leading up to his loss to Khabib. All three of Gaethje’s career losses came in rounds 2-4.
In his recent win over Chandler, both guys landed dozens of potentially fight-ending shots, but Gaethje had more big moments and looked extremely close to getting Chandler out of there at multiple points. Both guys landed several heavy leg kicks, but Gaethje led 26-11 in leg strikes and was really causing damage. He also did a great job of defending takedowns, as Chandler was only able to land one of his six attempts with essentially no control time as Gaethje rolled/flipped through the slam. Gaethje finished ahead 116-103 in significant strikes and 133-104 in total strikes as he won a unanimous decision.
Overall, Gaethje is an exciting brawler who has no interest in going to the ground despite the fact that he has a wrestling background and was a two-time state champion high school wrestler and a D1 NCAA All-American at the University of Northern Colorado. He’s only attempted a single takedown in his UFC career, which he failed to land in his second UFC fight. He is good at avoiding being taken down and owns a 73% career takedown defense, but he looked terrible off his back against Khabib when he did get taken down, although in fairness who doesn’t. Gaethje is a great leg striker who often looks to chop his opponents down early before attacking up top with heavy punches. He also throws destructive uppercuts that are useful when facing an opponent who wants to shoot for takedowns.
This will be the eighth five-round fight of Gaethje’s UFC career and the 14th of his entire career, which is crazy considering he only has nine UFC fights and 26 pro fights. All six of his pre-UFC five-round fights ended in knockout victories in under three rounds, but he has seen the championship rounds twice in the UFC. The first of those was against Dustin Poirier and Gaethje got finished 33 seconds into round four, while the more recent time was against Tony Ferguson and Gaethje landed a fifth round TKO win. Gaethje will now get to fight in front of his home crowd in Arizona where he’s from.
Fight Prediction:
Gaethje will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
As long as this fight remains a striking battle, Gaethje should hold the advantage. However, the second it hits the mat or Oliveira takes Gaethje’s back on the feet, we’ll be looking at one-sided domination from Oliveira. Oliveira can remain competitive in a striking battle, at least offensively, but Gaethje has no chance to be competitive in a grappling battle. That essentially means that Gaethje needs to fight the perfect fight and not allow Oliveira to engage in grappling. With that said, Gaethje has the ability to finish Oliveira at any point as long as the fight is standing, so it’s not as if he has to defend takedowns for 25 straight minutes, he just needs to stay upright long enough to land a fight ending blow. In the end, Gaethje has a puncher's chance to get a finish and it certainly wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him land a knockout in front of his hyped up home crowd. However, Oliveira’s massive grappling advantage makes him the pick for us and we like him to land a submission in either round two or three.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at -145.
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DFS Implications:
Oliveira has been a fairly consistent but largely unspectacular DFS producer, but his submission victories generally score much worse than his knockouts. In his 15 UFC submission wins, he’s averaged “just” 94 DraftKings points and has failed to top 97 points in any of his last six submissions. The only time he’s ever topped 104 DraftKings points in a submission win was in his 2010 UFC debut when he submitted Darren Elkins in just 41 seconds and received the DraftKings Quick Win Bonus. He scored a little better in his knockouts where he has averaged 106 DraftKings points, but it’s far more likely he wins by submission than KO here. It would be shocking to see this fight go the distance, but if it somehow did Oliveira would very likely score well through a combination of striking and grappling. The more realistic ways that he fails to return value are with a mid round finish or a loss, both of which are squarely in play. While Oliveira has won 10 straight fights with nine of those wins coming early, only one of his last seven wins came in the first round and he’s mostly been finishing opponents in rounds two and three. Oliveira will likely need a lower scoring slate to crack tournament winning lineups, which is always possible inside of the larger 30 ft cage. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in the first round.
Gaethje has averaged 105 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins and consistently scores well. The only time he failed to score at least 97 points came in his recent three-round decision win over Michael Chandler, where he still managed to put up 93 points. While there’s always a chance he could get controlled for the first round and then land an early second round knockout and fail to really score well, at his cheaper price tag it’s unlikely Gaethje will score poorly if he’s able to pull off the upset, which would almost certainly result from an early knockout if it does happen. Oliveira has been knocked out four times in his career, all in the first two rounds, with three of those ending in round one. Gaethje is entirely dependent on keeping this fight standing to win, and Oliveira will have a massive grappling advantage if it hits the mat. Gaethje does have a solid 73% takedown defense, but there’s a good chance that if he gets taken down even once, he’ll never make it back up. That makes it tough to be confident in him as a KO or bust fighter with no chance if this turns into a grappling match, but his upside is undeniable. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 32% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
- Fialho Under 7.5 Min
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