The Sheet

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #12

Evan Elder

4th UFC Fight (1-2)

This fight was just added to the card on Wednesday in a surprise turn of events where neither guy had originally been scheduled to fight.

Elder is coming off his first UFC victory in a decision win over Genaro Valdez, who’s now 0-3 in the UFC. Both fighters knocked each other down in the fight, but Elder led in striking in every round and also took Valdez down once, as he cruised to a decision win. Prior to that, Elder suffered an unfortunate loss to Nazim Sadykhov, where Elder won the first two rounds on all three judges’ scorecards, but then had a really bad cut opened up over his eye in round three and the doctor immediately stopped the fight. That came after Elder lost a grappling-heavy decision in his short notice UFC debut against Preston Parsons, which Elder took up a weight class on just four days’ notice. That was the first loss of Elder’s career, after he started out 7-0 on the Missouri regional scene.

Now 8-2 as a pro, Elder has four wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and three decision victories. His first four finishes all came in the first round, while his most recent was a third round TKO. He has one decision loss, and one TKO loss via doctor stoppage. His last four and six of his last seven fights made it to the third round, although two of those ended in late TKOs. Elder wasn’t going up against the toughest competition before he joined the UFC, and only two of his seven career wins on the regional scene came against opponents with winning records. His last regional win was against a 9-16 opponent. Elder made his 2018 pro debut at 170 lb and landed a first round knockout, but then immediately dropped down to 155 lb for his last six fights, before taking his UFC debut at 170 lb. He then dropped back down to 155 lb for his last two fights, but now he’ll be returning to 170 lb for this short notice matchup.

Overall, Elder is a durable striker who will occasionally mix in takedowns, but is more often looking to keep fights standing. He only landed two of his nine takedown attempts in his three UFC fights (22.2% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on five of their seven attempts (28.6% defense). He averages 4.75 SSL/min and 5.00 SSA/min and generally sets a pretty good striking pace. He’s been training at Kill Cliff FC, so he has a good team around him and is still just 27 years old and should constantly be improving. We’re curious to see how he looks on the scale here as he moves up a weight class on short notice.

Darrius Flowers

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Still in search of his first UFC win, Flowers is coming off a unanimous 30-27 decision loss to Michael Johnson, who outlanded Flowers 61-33 in significant strikes and also took him down four times and controlled him for six minutes. That’s only the second time that Johnson has landed more than a single takedown in 29 UFC fights and the first time he had ever landed more than two. That fight took place at 155 lb, after Flowers made his UFC debut at 170 lb against Jake Matthews just before that and got submitted in the second round. That loss arguably should have come via TKO after Matthews dropped Flowers with a kick to the body that was mistakenly deemed a low blow. Flowers was given five minutes to recover, although got submitted not long after. That loss came 11 months after Flowers landed a R1 TKO win on DWCS. We didn’t see much happen in his DWCS fight before Flowers got caught in an inverted triangle and then slammed his opponent to try and get out of it, resulting in a shoulder injury that stopped the fight. Prior to that, Flowers had three fights over a three week stretch in April and May of 2022. He won a three-round decision on April 16th, then landed a second round knockout just six days later, before landing a first round knockout just two weeks after that. Looking further back, Flowers has a 2018 second round knockout loss to former UFC fighter Bobby Voelker, who went 0-4 with the organization back in 2013 and 2014.

Now 12-7-1 as a pro, Flowers has eight wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and three decision victories. All nine of his finishes occurred in the first two rounds, with seven ending in round one. He’s been finished in six of his seven losses, with one knockout and five submissions. Four of his last five losses ended in the later rounds. Flowers is just 5’9” but has competed as heavy as 195 lb in MMA and 200 lb in boxing. He seemed to struggle with weight management early in his career where he would take fights anywhere from 170 lb to 195 lb. Following a 2019 195 lb Catchweight loss, he had been competing at 185 lb until he dropped down to 170 lb when he went on DWCS, where his UFC debut also was. He then dropped down to 155 lb for his last fight, but is now returning to 170 lb for this short notice matchup.

Overall, Flowers relies largely on his hands to win fights, but will mix in occasional takedowns as well. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed just one of his five takedown attempts (20% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 4 of their 10 attempts (60% defense). He’s shown suspect cardio in the past, and all but one of his career finishes have come in under six minutes, with the other ending later in round two. That’s concerning as he steps into this matchup at elevation on just a few days’ notice. He’ll sporadically let his hands go in lengthy punching combinations, but overall doesn’t put up big striking totals and looks mostly like an early KO or bust type of fighter. He’s looked very prone to getting submitted on the mat, which is how three of his last four losses ended. He’s definitely a guy to monitor on the scale after stepping in on short notice.

Fight Prediction:

Elder will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while he’s also two years younger than the 29-year-old Flowers.

Rarely do we see entirely new fights added in the middle of fight week, and normally it’s just one fighter stepping in on short notice to fill a slot after someone drops out. Making this even more of a unique situation is that the fight is taking place at elevation in Denver. That will test the gas tank of both fighters and cardio has been an issue for Flowers in the past. While Elder has shown good cardio in the past, neither guy had much time to acclimate to the elevation and they could both end up being affected by it. That creates the potential for a sloppy back half to the fight or a dominant one if just one of them gasses out. Flowers is by far the more likely of the two to slow down late in the fight, increasing the chances that Elder can find his first UFC finish. However, while Flowers has five career submission losses, he’s only been knocked out once and Elder only has one career submission win and generally relies on his striking. It’s been two and a half years since Elder finished anybody and that was a 9-17 opponent on the Missouri regional scene. So it’s hard to trust him to finish anybody, but he does have decent power. And if Flowers completely gasses out then it also won’t be shocking if a gimme submission presents itself. Flowers’ best shot at pulling off the upset will be in a first round knockout, but the only time Elder has ever been finished was due to a doctor stoppage after a cut opened up. So it’s hard to have much confidence in Flowers’ ability to get him out of there early. We like Elder to win, it’s just a matter of how, and all options are on the table. We’ll say Elder either finishes Flowers in the back half of the fight or wins a decision where both guys slow down late.

Our favorite bet here is “Evan Elder Win & Over 1.5 Rounds” at -115.

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DFS Implications:

Elder is coming off his first UFC win, where he only scored 84 DraftKings points in a decision despite securing a takedown and a knockdown. That came in a dream matchup against a high-paced brawler in Genaro Valdez, yet Elder was still unable to put up a meaningful score. Prior to that, he was winning a fight against Nazim Sadykhov, before an unfortunate cut stopped the fight in the third round and resulted in the first early loss of Elder’s career. Once again, Elder was on his way to putting up a decent but unspectacular score. While he’ll occasionally look for a takedown, he’s never landed more than one and generally relies on his striking to win fights. That leaves him reliant on landing knockouts to score well and now he checks in as the most expensive fighter on the card. That creates the potential for him to land a knockout and still get priced out of winning lineups. This fight was only put together on a few days’ notice, so neither of the two have had enough time to really acclimate to the elevation in Denver, which makes it a more volatile matchup and increases the chances for one or both guys to gas out. Considering that Flowers has already shown cardio issues in the past, that could actually benefit Elder and seemingly increases his chances for a late finish, as long as his own cardio holds up. And if Flowers does completely gas out then Elder could potentially put up a huge score if the ref lets him beat on him for a while before eventually stopping the fight. The odds imply Elder has a 78% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Flowers is 0-2 in the UFC and is coming off a decision loss where he only scored 18 DraftKings points and allowed Michael Johnson to land a career best four takedowns. Flowers made his UFC debut at 170 lb, before dropping down to 155 lb for the first time in that loss to Johnson. He’ll now be returning to 170 lb for this short notice as he continues to bounce between weight classes. Prior to that decision loss, Flowers was submitted in the second round of his UFC debut, and slowing down after five minutes and getting submitted has been an ongoing issue for him, as he now has five submission losses on his record. While he has decent hands, his poor cardio generally leaves him as nothing more than an early KO or bust option. He’s complained about the elevation of Las Vegas in the past (2,000 ft above sea level), so we can’t imagine how he’ll look in Denver (5,280 ft above sea level). And when you factor in that this matchup was put together on less than a week’s notice, we fully expect Flowers to gas out. However, with both guys stepping in on short notice, we have to consider this a more volatile spot overall and there’s always a chance Elder gasses out or Flowers can catch him with something early. The odds imply Flowers has a 22% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Josh Fremd

6th UFC Fight (2-3)

Fremd will be looking to bounce back from a second round knockout loss via body shot to Roman Kopylov, who was able to stuff all five of Fremd’s takedown attempts and brutally beat him up on the feet. A month prior to that, Fremd saved his job in a boring decision win over Jamie Pickett, in a fight where Fremd notably missed weight by 3 lb. That came after Fremd notched his first UFC win with a second round guillotine against a debuting Sedriques Dumas. Leading up to those two wins, Fremd nearly got his head ripped off as he got choked unconscious early in the second round by Treasean Gore in another guillotine. Looking back one fight further, Fremd got smothered on the mat for three rounds in a decision loss in his short notice UFC debut against Anthony Hernandez. Fremd also got knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues in the first round of a 2021 LFA fight and is just 4-4 in his last eight fights.

Now 11-5 as a pro, Fremd has four wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. All eight of his early wins came in the first two rounds, with three first round knockouts, another in round two, and four second round submissions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has two decision losses. All three of his early losses also ended in the first two rounds. However, while 11 of his 16 pro fights ended in under 10 minutes, he’s seen the second round in seven straight fights, with three of those going the distance.

Overall, Fremd is an aggressive fighter who likes to push forward and force the action. Standing 6’4”, he has really good size for the Middleweight division. His aggressive fighting style has gotten him into trouble at times in the past and he had been prone to getting dropped on the regional scene. He’s also struggled with being taken down and controlled and in his five UFC fights, he was taken down 13 times on 19 opponent attempts (31.6% defense), while only landing three of his own takedowns on 12 attempts (25% accuracy). He trains at elevation with the Factory X team in Colorado, so he’ll have the home crowd behind him and the elevation shouldn’t be an issue for his cardio. In recent interviews, Fremd talked about how he was in a couple of car accidents earlier this year that forced him into a longer layoff than he would have liked, but he’s all healed up now and ready to go.

Andre Petroski

8th UFC Fight (5-2)

Coming off a pair of TKO losses, Petroski was finished in under six minutes in each of his last two fights, after winning two consecutive decisions before that. His most recent loss ended in bizarre fashion against Jacob Malkoun. Petroski actually won the first round on all three scorecards, but then as he shot in for a takedown in round two he somehow got stunned and just slowly fell to the mat and then ate a soccer kick to the side that stopped the fight. Prior to that, Petroski suffered his first UFC loss in a R1 TKO against Michel Pereira, who was moving up from 170 lb to 185 lb for the first time in the UFC. In fairness to Petroski, he stepped into that fight on very short notice and had to fly around the world from Thailand to make it, while cutting a stupid amount of weight. That seemed to seriously impact his chin and Pereira quickly finished him before Petroski could land a single strike or even attempt a takedown. That came after Petroski won his first five UFC fights, with his last two victories ending in decisions against a pair of grapplers in Gerald Meerschaert and Wellington Turman. While Petroski’s last two wins both went the distance, he landed back-to-back submissions just before that, including a first round submission over a strong wrestler in Nick Maximov. Petroski also landed a third round ground and pound TKO in his 2021 UFC debut. Just before making his debut, he went on The Ultimate Fighter, but got submitted by Bryan Battle in his second fight on the show.

Now 10-3 as a pro, Petroski has four wins by KO/TKO, four more by submission, and two decision victories. Four of his finishes occurred in round one, two ended in round two, and two came in round three. He was knocked out in all three of his official pro losses, and was also submitted in the second round on TUF, although that fight was technically counted as an exhibition match so it doesn’t show up on his official record. Petroski made his 2018 pro debut at 170 lb, before moving up to 185 lb for his second fight, where he’s stayed since.

Overall, Petroski is a BJJ brown belt and former college wrestler. He trains at Renzo Gracie Philly with a bunch of other solid grapplers like Pat Sabatini, Sean Brady, Jeremiah Wells, Joe Pyfer, and Kyle Daukaus. In his seven UFC fights, Petroski landed 19 of his 35 takedown attempts (54.3% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down twice on 10 attempts (80% defense). We’ve never seen very high striking totals in his fights and he only averages 3.50 SSL/min and 3.08 SSA/min. Petroski has shown dubious cardio at times, but has managed to power through that in most of his UFC fights and 8 of his last 10 fights made it out of the first round, with four of his last seven seeing round three. He’s talked about how he started swimming and biking to improve his cardio, as he acknowledged that was an area of weakness for him. Considering his last two wins both went the distance, it does look like he’s made some improvements in that area, but now he’ll be competing at elevation and his gas tank will be tested here if the fight runs long.

Fight Prediction:

Fremd will have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while also being three years younger than the 33-year-old Petroski.

These two actually trained together a few years ago when Petroski went out to Factory X for a couple of months during COVID, so they should already be familiar with one another. Fremd said he plans on bullying the bully here, so it sounds like he wants to come out aggressive. It won’t be at all surprising if Petroski finds early wrestling success, as Fremd has just a 31% takedown defense and has already given up 13 takedowns in five UFC fights. However, his ability to survive for three rounds in his short notice UFC debut against a really tough Anthony Hernandez and unlike Hernandez, Petroski has a suspect gas tank. We expect the elevation to accentuate Petroski’s cardio issues and if he can’t lock up a submission in the first half of the fight he’ll likely be in trouble. Fremd has a history of securing second round submission wins and that’s around the time we expect Petroski to start slowing down. We like Fremd to survive from bottom position in round one and then lock up a guillotine in round two as a tired Petroski shoots for a desperation takedown.

Our favorite bet here is “Fremd/Petroski Fight Ends in SUB” at +185.

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DFS Implications:

Fremd is coming off a forgettable performance where he was never able to get anything going and then got knocked out late in the second round by a really dangerous Roman Kopylov. That snapped a two-fight winning streak after he won a boring decision over Jamie Pickett and scored just 66 DraftKings points. However, most of Fremd’s fights are high paced and he scored 109 points in a second round submission win just before his victory over Pickett, after getting submitted in the second round himself by Tresean Gore. While Fremd’s last seven fights all made it out of round one, four of those were stopped in round two, with three of those ending in submissions (2-1). He has the ability to finish opponents both on the feet and the mat and he trains in Denver so the elevation shouldn’t be a problem for him. The same can’t be said for Petroski, whose cardio concerns could be made even worse at elevation. That increases the chances for a late Fremd finish and he should be in a good position to take over if he can simply avoid getting submitted early on. While his defensive wrestling has been poor, he’s only been submitted once in his career and was able to go three rounds with Anthony Hernandez in his short notice UFC debut. That’s encouraging for his chances of outlasting Petroski here and after the line moved in Petroski favor, we should be able to get Fremd at lower ownership, especially coming off a bad loss. That raises his tournament appeal and he has solid finishing upside at a reasonable price tag. The odds imply Fremd has a 49% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Petroski has averaged 100 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, but is coming off two straight TKO losses and is finally getting exposed as he’s begun facing tougher competition. While he’s a good wrestler and a dangerous submission threat, his durability, cardio, and IQ are all pretty suspect and he’s also not a great striker. While he has shown some improvements to his gas tank, we expect him to struggle with his conditioning at elevation, which likely leaves him reliant on locking up an early submission if he wants to win. Fremd’s poor 31% takedown defense should give Petroski the opportunities he needs to end things early, but the betting market is only giving Petroski about a 10% chance of landing a first round submission and only a 21% chance of locking up a submission at any point in the fight. Both of those are well below his projected ownership, and we’d be surprised if Petroski had the cardio to go three hard rounds here. However, if we’re wrong, then a wrestling-heavy decision would also allow him to score well on DraftKings and we can’t completely eliminate that possibility. Whoever wins here will have a good shot at scoring well unless Petroski completely dominates Fremd on the mat in round one and then falls into a guillotine in round two, which in fairness, is very possible. The odds imply Petroski has a 51% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

Luana Santos

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Santos is coming off a decision win over a Judo black belt in Stephanie Egger. Santos took that fight on shorter notice and moved up from 125 lb to 135 lb, while Egger has competed all the way up at 145 lb in the past. Santos notably missed weight by three pounds for the fight and didn’t look like the smaller fighter in there as she was able to hold Egger up against the cage, control her, and take her down in each of the later rounds. It was definitely a poor showing from Egger, but it also showed Santos’ strength as she moved up a weight class. Four months prior to that, Santos secured the first TKO win of her career in less than four minutes against a fellow grappler in Juliana Miller who approached the fight like it was 2 AM at a Wendy’s. The two wildly swung at each other until the ref eventually stopped the fight on the feet. Prior to that, Santos notched a pair of wins in the LFA with a decision victory followed by a first round guillotine, after losing a split decision in her 2022 LFA debut. Before she joined the LFA, Santos’ first three pro fights were on the Brazilian regional scene and she only turned pro in July 2021.

Now 7-1 as a pro, Santos has one TKO win, three submissions, and three decision victories. Two of those submissions occurred in round one, while the other came in round three. Her only loss was a 2022 split decision. Santos’ first three pro fights were at 135 lb, before she dropped down to 125 lb for her next four. She returned to 135 lb for her last match, but is now moving back down to 125 lb.

Overall, Santos is a Judo black belt who started training Judo when she was eight years old and it shows in her fighting style as she’s primarily a grappler and loves looking for Judo throws. She’s just a BJJ blue belt, but she’ll look for Americana submissions out of the scarf hold position, similar to Montserrat Conejo, and is also a fan of guillotines. Santos hasn’t looked very dangerous off her back and her striking is still a work in progress, but she does appear to be making some improvements on that front. She’s still very early in career at just 24 years old and she left her home country of Brazil in May 2023 to move to Sacramento, California to train at Team Alpha Male. We expect to see her game evolve every time she steps inside the Octagon, but she’s still pretty green at this stage in her career and hasn’t been overly impressive. However, the UFC seems interested in building her up as they give her a very favorable matchup in this next fight.

Mariya Agapova

6th UFC Fight (2-3)

Agapova is 22 months removed from a second round submission loss to Gillian Robertson, who has since dropped down to 115 lb. Agapova got taken down three times and controlled for five of the seven minutes in that fight before being choked unconscious midway through round two. Following that loss, Agapova had knee surgery and then became a tattoo artist to make ends meet. She also took a Karate Combat grappling match just six weeks ago where she got heel hooked in just 31 seconds. That seems like an odd choice since she signed up for this UFC fight two months before that and was risking injury to lose a payday that she clearly needs. She’s never been the brightest though, so the move is on brand. Agapova was also submitted in the second round of her second most recent UFC fight, that time via arm-triangle against Maryna Moroz, who has since lost three straight fights. Agapova’s only win in her last four UFC fights was a 2021 third round submission against a fellow striker in Sabina Mazo, who was in the midst of a three-fight skid before being cut. Just before that, Agapova famously came in as one of the biggest favorites in UFC history and proceeded to death gas against Shana Dobson and got finished with ground and pound in the second round. That came after Agapova submitted a terrible/undersized Hannah Cifers in the first round of her 2020 UFC debut. Agapova originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2019, but got dominated on the mat by Tracy Cortez and lost a decision. That was the last time Agapova required the scorecards and her last seven fights all ended early.

Now 10-4 as a pro, Agapova has three wins by KO/TKO, five by submission and two decisions. She has one loss by TKO, two by submission, and one decision defeat, with all four losses coming on the mat.

Overall, Agapova is a wiry kickboxer who has the ability to submit opponents but has terrible defensive wrestling and cardio. She’s a complete head case who’s been accused of all types of outlandish debauchery by past teammates and she’s been kicked out of multiple gyms. She has struggled mightily against all of the grapplers she has faced, but can throw flurries of strikes on the feet to find finishes in striking battles. In her five UFC fights, she was taken down 11 times on 21 attempts by her opponents (47.6% defense) and has lost every single fight where her back has hit the mat even once. Now it’s been almost two years since she last competed and she’s definitely someone to monitor at weigh-ins.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’6” but Agapova will have a 1” reach advantage and is three years older than Santos.

While Santos hasn’t been overly impressive, she has looked strong out of the clinch and has shown the ability to land takedowns, often via Judo throw. While that’s generally not a great way to find long term success in the UFC, it should be enough in this matchup against a striker with terrible defensive wrestling and awful cardio. Agapova hasn’t competed in so long that her current form remains somewhat of a mystery, but she got kicked out of all the good gyms and is now training at the MMA Science Academy in Florida, a place we’ve never even heard of. That’s not a good sign for her growth as a fighter and it appears the UFC is just using her to build up Santos here. Agapova will be reliant on landing a hail mary finish early on, before she gasses out and likely gets finished on the mat. The betting market is giving her essentially no shot at getting it done if you look at her early finishing props. We like Santos to grind her out in the clinch and on the mat before submitting her, most likely within two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Luana Santos SUB” at +200.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.

DFS Implications:

Santos hasn’t been overly impressive, but she has averaged 100 DraftKings points in her two UFC wins. Her first UFC victory was pretty flukey and ended in the first KO/TKO win of her career in her UFC debut against Juliana Miller, who for some reason was dead set on making it look like a late night Wendy’s brawl. That’s not normally how Santos’ fights go at all and the pace was entirely dictated by Miller. So take the 116 DraftKings points that Santos scored in the win with a grain of salt. Santos’ last win is more of what you can generally expect from her as she relied on cage control and grappling to win a slow-paced decision. The fact that she was able to move up to 135 lb and control a fellow Judo black belt in Stephanie Egger showed that Santos is at least strong and she was able to land two takedowns in the fight and score 84 DraftKings points even in an uneventful decision. That was a terrible matchup for Santos, but now she gets a much more favorable one against a striker with cardio concerns who has been dominated on the mat in all of her losses. Agapova was finished on the ground in the second round in all three of her UFC losses and is now coming off a 22 month layoff and knee surgery. Agapova took a Karate Combat grappling match just six weeks ago and was submitted in just 31 seconds, so there are no indications that she’s made actual improvements to her grappling. She trains at a random gym in Florida and has been working as a tattoo artist in her time away, and this looks like a teed up matchup for Santos to find a finish on the ground. And even if she can’t get Agapova out of there early, she’ll likely still dominate the fight on the ground and can still score well on DraftKings even in a decision. However, she’s more reliant on ending things early on FanDuel. The odds imply Santos has a 76% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Agapova has yet to require the judges in any of her five UFC fights, so whoever wins in her matches generally scores well. She put up 114 DraftKings points in a first round submission win in her 2020 UFC debut and then scored 94 points in a third round submission in her one other UFC win. Just keep in mind, both of those finishes came against fellow strikers and anyone that can grapple has dominated Agapova on the mat. She’s never won a UFC (or DWCS) fight where she was taken down even once and she was finished on the ground in the second round in all three of her UFC losses. She has terrible cardio, bad defensive wrestling, and no clue how to defend submissions. She’s basically a wild brawler who typically needs to find a quick finish before she ends up on her back. The only reason she was able to make it to round three against Mazo is that there was zero wrestling in that fight and Agapova’s cardio can last in a pure kickboxing match. We expect Santos to be looking to grapple early and often in this one and that should quickly drain Agapova’s gas tank, leaving her as nothing more than an early hail mary KO or bust play in DFS. The odds imply Agapova has a 24% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Montel Jackson

10th UFC Fight (7-2)

Jackson had been scheduled to fight on the Saudi Arabia card on June 22nd but first Said Nurmagomedov dropped out and then Farid Basharat stepped in to replace him before also dropping out on June 14th. That forced Jackson to sit on the sidelines and wait for a new opponent for a couple of weeks before this new matchup was announced on July 2nd, 11 days before the event. Jackson also had a fight canceled in October 2023 and now hasn’t competed in 15 months since he knocked out Rani Yahya in the first round. Prior to that, Jackson won a low-volume decision over Julio Arce, where Jackson was unable to land any of his three takedown attempts against the elite 96% takedown defense of Arce. Jackson has won four straight and seven of his last eight fights since losing a decision to Ricky Simon in his 2018 UFC debut. While Jackson has dominated in the majority of his wins, five of his last seven fights have gone the distance, with the two exceptions being a pair of first round knockouts. Jackson’s only other finish in the UFC came in his second fight with the organization when he submitted the highly submittable Brian Kelleher (8 career submission losses) in the first round. Most of Jackson’s other UFC wins haven’t aged especially well. Following the win over Kelleher, he won a decision against Andre Soukhamthath, who went 2-5 in the UFC before being cut. Then Jackson won a decision over Felipe Dias Colares, who went 2-4 in the UFC before being cut. He then lost to Brett Johns before knocking out Strader (0-2 and cut), and then he won a decision over JP Buys (0-4 and cut). And while Arce has found more UFC success than any of those guys, he’s still just 6-4 in the UFC and only 4-4 in his last eight fights. Jackson then knocked out a washed up Rani Yahya most recently. Both of Jackson’s UFC losses came in decisions against wrestlers, with a decision loss to Ricky Simon in his UFC debut and then a 2020 loss to Brett Johns.

Now 13-2 as a pro, Jackson has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses ending in decisions. Jackson fought his first pro fight at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb for his second pro match. However, he then moved all the way down to 135 lb for his third pro bout, where he’s stayed ever since.

Overall, Jackson has a background in wrestling and was originally striving to compete in the Olympics before changing his focus to MMA. At 5’10” with a 75” reach and massive hands, he’s got good size and a ridiculous reach for the division. He offers exceptional wrist control, pinning opponents’ arms back like someone picking on their little brother. His patient fighting style, long reach and strong wrestling skills have kept the striking volume in check for all of his UFC fights. He only averages 3.36 SSL/min and 1.41 SSA/min and none of his UFC opponents have landed more than 30 significant strikes against him and he’s never landed more than 75 significant strikes. Even in his two career losses, Jackson outlanded his opponents, but ended up getting outwrestled in those matches. Between his nine UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Jackson landed 25 of his 35 takedown attempts (71.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 19 of their 62 attempts (69.4% defense). The only fighters to get him down more than once in the UFC were Ricky Simon and Brett Johns, who combined to land 15 of their 39 attempts. Jackson’s other seven UFC opponents combined to land just 4 of their 23 attempts. Jackson landed multiple takedowns in six of his last seven fights that made it out of the first round and has landed at least one knockdown in six straight fights, with 10 total knockdowns in his last six fights.

Da'Mon Blackshear

6th UFC Fight (2-2-1)

Blackshear is 11 months removed from a close decision loss to Mario Bautista in a fight that Blackshear stepped into on very short notice after fighting just the week before. Blackshear won the first round, but then lost a close second round as he began to slow down and then clearly lost round three. He was able to take Bautista down four times but didn’t finish with any submission attempts and Bautista also took him down twice and actually finished ahead in control time. Just a week before that loss, Blackshear locked up a rare Twister submission against Jose Johnson, who was making his short notice debut and has been prone to getting submitted. Prior to that, Blackshear notched his first UFC win in a second round TKO against Luan Lacerda, who foolishly committed to looking for a leg lock while Blackshear punched him in the face until the fight was stopped. Looking back one fight further, Blackshear lost a decision to a debuting Farid Basharat, who took Blackshear down three times and controlled him for five and a half minutes. That came after Blackshear fought to a draw in his short notice UFC debut against Youssef Zalal. Blackshear won four straight fights leading up to his debut, with three of those ending in submissions.

Now 14-6-1 as a pro, Blackshear has two wins by TKO, nine submissions, and three decision victories. All six of his losses went the distance, with one of those notably coming against UFC fighter Pat Sabatini and another against former UFC fighter Kris Moutinho. Despite 11 of Blackshear’s 14 pro wins coming early, all but two of his 21 career fights made it out of the first round, with 13 making it to round three, and 10 going the distance. He has two first round submission wins, four in round two, two in round three, and one in round four. Both of his TKO wins also ended in round two. Blackshear has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb, with five of his earlier career matches up at 145 lb. However, he hasn’t competed at 145 lb since losing a 2018 decision to Pat Sabatini.

Overall, Blackshear is a BJJ black belt and a former high school wrestler who relies heavily on his grappling. He scrambles well on the mat and does a good job of transitioning and looking for submissions from a variety of positions. Most of his fights end up playing out as grappling battles, with five of his last seven wins ending in submissions. We saw him get exposed on the feet in the third round of his debut against a not very dangerous opponent in Youssef Zalal, and we also saw Blackshear slow down late in the second round of his last fight. In fairness to him, he took both of those fights on short notice, but the same can be said about this next matchup. He has shown some improvements to both his striking and his wrestling and in his five UFC fights, Blackshear landed 9 of his 24 takedown attempts (37.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 21 attempts (66.7% defense). Both of Blackshear’s UFC losses came against really tough opponents and he’ll face another really difficult test here.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’10”, but Jackson will have a 3” reach advantage. Blackshear is three years younger than the 32-year-old Jackson.

Both of these two are talented, but Jackson is more well rounded and far more dangerous on the feet. We’ve also seen Blackshear slow down in the third round at multiple points and now he’s stepping in on short notice at elevation. That’s a recipe for disaster for him if this makes it past the second round and Blackshear looks dependent on locking up a submission in the first half of the fight if he wants to pull off the upset. Supporting that idea, Blackshear is just 1-5-1 in the last seven decisions he went to and only has two career KO/TKO wins. Meanwhile, Jackson has never been finished and had been preparing to fight a few weeks ago before it fell through. We expect Jackson to win the striking exchanges and likely out wrestle Blackshear as well, so as long as he doesn’t fall into a submission he should have no issues securing the win. If Blackshear really gasses out then maybe Jackson can finish him late, but we like Jackson to win a decision here.

Our favorite bet here is “Montel Jackson ML” at -138.

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DFS Implications:

Jackson has impressively averaged 111 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, scoring 96 or more in all but one of those. The only time he struggled to return a useful score was in a low-volume striking battle against Julio Arce, who has an elite 96% takedown defense and was able to keep the fight standing. However, Jackson averaged a ridiculous 122 points in his other five most recent wins, scoring 106 or more in all of those and topping 130 points twice. He has solid wrestling and dangerous striking, landing an insane 10 knockdowns in his last six fights. While he only averages 3.36 SSL/min and never puts up big striking totals, his ability to fill up the statsheet leaves him with a massive ceiling regardless of whether or not he lands a finish. While Blackshear is a dangerous grappler, he’s been prone to getting taken down and controlled. He also has somewhat dubious cardio, which could look even worse here at elevation and after Blackshear stepped in on short notice. That’s all encouraging for Jackson’s upside here and he looks like a good play everywhere. The odds imply Jackson has a 57% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

Blackshear is a dangerous grappler who has made some improvements to his striking and wrestling, but is still largely dependent on finishes to win fights, as he’s just 1-5-1 in the last seven decisions he went to. He’s been able to capitalize in favorable matchups, as he scored 114 and 115 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins, which both ended in under nine minutes. However, those were both against lower level opponents who came in with a combined 0-1 UFC record. We’ve yet to see Blackshear come out victorious in his tougher matchups and Jackson is really solid everywhere. Unless Blackshear can find a surprisingly high amount of wrestling success, he’ll need to hand Jackson his first early loss to really score well. While Blackshear is dangerous enough on the mat that it’s possible, the field has been overvaluing his talents and his ownership checked in at 40% and 31% on DraftKings in his last two matchups. Now the line has been moving in his favor, which should help to keep his ownership up once again. We’re not nearly as high on Blackshear as the field is and we expect him to be over owned and lose a decision here, leaving us unexcited about playing him. The odds imply Blackshear has a 43% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Fatima Kline

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Kline will be making her UFC debut on just eight days’ notice after Viviane Araujo dropped out. Just a week ago she signed up to go on DWCS in September, so she was already on the UFC’s radar. She’s coming off a four-round decision win for the vacant CFFC Strawweight belt against a 6-3-1 small 5’1” opponent who only weighed in at 114.4 lb and who was 1-2 in her previous three fights. Kline was able to dominate the fight on the mat and the feet in the one-sided affair. Prior to that, Kline fought for the vacant CFFC Flyweight belt and landed a third round ground and pound finish against an incredibly out of shape 5’1” former Atomweight who was stepping in on just a few days’ notice and was just 2-3 in her previous five fights. Kline weighed in at just 123.4 lb for that fight, while her opponent was 124.6 lb and clearly neither one of them belonged in the 125 lb division. So take Kline’s double champ status with a massive grain of salt.

Now 6-0 as a pro, Kline has two third-round ground and pound TKO wins, one submission victory, and three decision wins. After she locked up a first round submission in her 2021 pro debut, her last five fights all made it to the third round, with three of her last four going the distance. All but one of her MMA fights have been at 115 lb, but she did have one fight at 125 lb, where she’ll also be making her short notice UFC debut.

Overall, Kline is a BJJ black belt who has competed in more grappling matches than MMA fights and is also the main training partner of Erin Blanchfield. They share wrestling-heavy styles and frequently corner one another, but we’re not quite ready to put them on the same level. Kline’s wrestling and grappling has looked pretty good, at least against a lower level of competition, but she hasn’t completed many submissions in MMA matches and is still very young at just 23 years old. She only turned pro three years ago and is still learning on the job, but does seem to be improving between fights. She does a good job of chaining takedowns together and her striking has also improved to the point of being decent. Standing 5’6”, she has good size for the 115 lb division, although will be taking on a large 125 lb opponent in her UFC debut, negating her typical size advantage. Kline said that Rose Namajunas was her favorite fighter growing up, so it’s only fitting that she would make her UFC debut on a card that Namajunas is headlining. Considering that Kline accepted this fight on just over a week’s notice, she’ll be someone to monitor during weigh-ins.

Jasmine Jasudavicius

7th UFC Fight (4-2)

Jasudavicius is coming off one of the most dominant performances you will ever see in a third round submission win over a one-dimensional striker in Priscila Cachoeira, who bullied her way into making the fight at 135 lb instead of 125 lb the day before weigh-ins. Jasudavicius was not too pleased with that last minute change and made Cachoeira pay for it inside the Octagon and she outlanded her 326-26 (!!!) in total strikes and 93-24 in significant strikes, while also knocking her down once, taking her down twice, and controlling her for 11 and a half minutes, while also finishing with three official submission attempts. One judge went as far as awarding Jasudavicius with a rare 10-7 in round two, while the other two judges had it 10-8, in addition to all three judges scoring round one as a 10-8 as well. The fight took place in front of Jasudavicius’ home Canadian crowd and the finish was only Jasudavicius’ second career submission win and the first since her 2019 pro debut. Just before that, Jasudavicius suffered her only loss in her last four fights in a decision against a fellow wrestler in Tracy Cortez, who’s known for her wrestling but had no problem winning that fight entirely on the feet. Cortez won every round of the fight, finishing ahead 103-77 in significant strikes, Jasudavicius was only able to land 2 of her 10 takedown attempts. Prior to that, Jasudavicius pulled off a big upset win in a decision over Miranda Maverick on the previous Canada card, after winning a decision over another one-dimensional striker in Gabriella Fernandes. That followed a decision loss to a very talented Natalia Silva and a decision win over an undersized Kay Hansen. Jasudavicius also won a wrestling-heavy decision on DWCS in 2021, as she landed four takedowns on seven attempts with over eight minutes of control time.

Now 10-3 as a pro, Jasudavicius has two wins by R1 TKO, two submission, and six decision victories. She’s never been finished and all three of her losses went the distance, with one of those coming in a questionable split decision against a one-dimensional striker in Elise Reed in a 2020 four-round CFFC Strawweight Championship fight before they both joined the UFC. Her loss to Reed came at 115 lb, while almost all of her other fights have been at 125 lb, with the one exception being a 2020 122 lb Catchweight match.

Overall, Jasudavicius relies almost entirely on her wrestling to win fights and the only time she’s won a UFC match without landing multiple takedowns was in a 29-28 decision victory over Maverick where she only landed one. While she is pretty one-dimensional, she’s also aggressive enough to try and throw down on the feet at times, despite her limited striking ability. She generally looks for ground and pound on the mat, and hasn’t looked like much of a submission threat, despite her recent submission win. While she didn’t get into MMA until later on in her life, she does have a freestyle wrestling background and is a BJJ purple belt. Between her six UFC fights and her DWCS appearance, Jasudavicius landed 15 of her 40 takedown attempts (37.5% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on just 3 of their 15 attempts (80% defense). She only averages 3.95 SSL/min and 4.03 SSA/min, but we have seen her striking output increase in each of her last three fights as she grows a little more comfortable on the feet.

Fight Prediction:

Jasudavicius will have a 1” height advantage, while Kline is 12 years younger than the 35-year-old Jasudavicius.

This is an interesting matchup between two grapplers. They’re both big for their respective divisions, but Kline normally fights at 115 lb, while Jasudavicius typically competes at 125 lb. Kline has been accustomed to facing much smaller opponents recently, so it will be interesting to see how she deals with the size of Jasudavicius. We’re also curious to see how Kline’s cardio looks on short notice and at elevation, but she’s shown the ability to wrestle for four rounds in the past. And on the flipside, how effective can Jasudavicius be in taking Kline down and controlling her? So there are lots of questions that will need to be answered in this one, making it somewhat of a volatile matchup. However, what we do know is that Jasudavicius has had way more time to prepare and has fought a much higher level of competition in the past. She’s also accustomed to facing larger 125 lb opponents, while Kline has never fought against a true Flyweight. While Kline comes into the UFC with a decent amount of hype behind her, she’s in a really tough spot to succeed and at just 23 years old it’s entirely possible the moment will be too big for her. We could see Jasudavicius simply overpower her in the wrestling exchanges, but Kline will look for armbars, kimuras, and leg locks, so Jasudavicius will need to be mindful of positions on the mat. We agree with the odds that this will likely be a close fight that could go either way, but we’ll give the slight edge to the larger, more experienced fighter in Jasudavicius who had a full camp to prepare, and we’ll say she wins a close decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Jasmine Jasudavicius DEC” at +165.

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DFS Implications:

Kline’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting looks conducive to DFS production, especially on DraftKings, but she’s being put into one of the toughest spots you could ask for here. She’s making her UFC debut on just over a week’s notice, up a weight class, at elevation, in front of a big crowd, and against a fellow wrestler. It’s asking a lot of a 23-year-old to look her best in that type of situation and there’s the potential for her to fall on her face. Jasudavicius is coming off a career-best performance and has a solid 80% takedown defense, while she’s also never been finished. Kline has good size at 115 lb, but Jasudavicius is a large 125er and we could see Kline get overpowered in the wrestling exchanges. So while she’s shown the ability to put up big takedown totals and dominate opponents on the mat in the past, she’ll have a much tougher time achieving that here. The betting market appears to agree and after Kline opened the week as a slight favorite, this fight got bet to a pick’em by Wednesday. That leaves Kline overpriced on DraftKings, which should keep her ownership in check and actually adds to her tournament appeal on this smaller slate. We’re still more interested in playing her down the road, but if she can get her wrestling going or lock up a submission in this tough matchup then she’ll be a really valuable lower owned piece in tournaments. The odds imply Kline has a 48% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

Jasudavicius absolutely decimated the last slate she was on, scoring 169 DraftKings points and 145 points on FanDuel in a late third round submission win. It was one of the most dominant performances of all time, but it also came in an absolute dream matchup against a one-dimensional striker in front of Jasudavicius’ home crowd. Jasudavicius had fought to eight straight decisions before that, winning five of those. While Jasudavicius was able to score 105 DraftKings points in a decision win over another one-dimensional striker in Gabriella Fernandes, she went 2-2 against grapplers in the UFC and only put DraftKings scores of 85 and 86 points in those two wins. Now she’s facing another grappler and it’s not a great stylistic matchup for Jasudavicius to dominate on the ground. With that said, Kline did step in on short notice and is making her debut up a weight class, which when combined with the elevation certainly makes this a more volatile matchup. If Kline struggles with her cardio or the lights are too bright for the young 23-year-old, then Jasudavicius could capitalize and still score well. Just keep in mind, between Jasudavicius’ recent scoring explosion and her cheap/mispriced salary, the field will be tripping over themselves to play her, which greatly lowers her tournament appeal. The odds imply Jasudavicius has a 52% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Joshua Van

4th UFC Fight (3-0)

Van had been scheduled to fight Tagir Ulanbekov on June 15th, but Ulanbekov missed weight badly and the fight was canceled. Then this matchup was announced on July 2nd, 11 days before the event.

Continuing to impress, Van is coming off his first UFC finish in a second round TKO over a debuting Felipe Bunes. Once again, Van lost the first round on all three scorecards, just as he did in each of his first two UFC fights, but came back in round two and overwhelmed Bunes with pressure and forced a TKO stoppage in the final 30 seconds of the round. Bunes took Van down twice on six attempts, but melted under Van’s pressure and pace in round two. After only landing 14 significant strikes and 23 total strikes in round one, Van landed 69 significant strikes and 131 total strikes in round two. Prior to that, Van won a high-volume decision over a debuting Kevin Borjas, where Van again started slow. However after only landing 20 significant strikes in round one, he landed 77 in round two and 59 in round three, to finish ahead 156-75. Just before that, Van once again started slow in his UFC debut against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, where Van dropped the first round but won each of the later rounds. Van finished that fight ahead 120-103 in significant strikes after only landing 26 significant strikes in round one. While two of Van’s three UFC fights went the distance, all eight of his regional fights ended early (7-1) with Fury FC. He won the Fury FC Flyweight belt in the last of those fights with a second round submission.

Now 10-1 as a pro, Van has six wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. All eight of his finishes came in the first two rounds, with two in round one, and six in round two. His last four finishes all occurred in the second round. He was also submitted in the second round in his lone loss, which occurred in 2021 in his third pro fight. He faced a lot of questionable competition before joining the UFC, with only two of his opponents coming in with more than two pro wins.

Overall, Van is a 22-year-old Burmese kickboxer who only turned pro in October 2021. That shows in his wrestling, which is a work in progress, but he’s already made a lot of improvements to his takedown defense. In his three UFC fights, his opponents were only able to get him down on 3 of their 14 attempts (78.6% defense), but he also hasn’t faced any really good grapplers yet. On the other side of things, Van landed three of his seven takedown attempts (42.9% accuracy), showing improvements to his offensive wrestling as well. Van has shown some ability to look for submissions when the opportunities present themselves, but he generally relies on his striking to win fights. Van doesn't cut a ton of weight and isn’t a huge Flyweight by any means, but that also allows him to stay active and take fights on short notice, and he also has great cardio.

Charles Johnson

9th UFC Fight (4-4)

Johnson is just two months removed from a May decision win over Jake Hadley, where Johnson showed improved defensive wrestling as he stuffed all 11 of Hadley’s takedown attempts. Johnson also finished ahead 70-48 in significant strikes and 88-50 in total strikes. Johnson started slow as he lost the first round, but bounced back to win each of the later rounds, as he cruised to a unanimous 29-28 decision win. Prior to that, Johnson saved his job in a decision win over a previously undefeated 15-0 prospect in Azat Maksum. However, Johnson had to overcome a lot of adversity in the fight and got dropped and then nearly submitted 20 seconds into the match. Maksum continued to find early striking success in the fight, but those moments dissipated in the later rounds and after winning round one on all three scorecards, Maksum lost rounds two and three for a unanimous 29-28 decision in Johnson’s favor. Johnson finished ahead 76-38 in significant strikes and we actually saw more grappling from Johnson, who landed two of his six takedown attempts and finished with three submission attempts, while Maksum was only able to get Johnson down on two of his seven attempts. Leading up to those two wins, Johnson had lost three straight decisions, where he was taken down a combined 17 times, while only landing one takedown of his own. His most recent defeat came against a debuting Rafael Estevam, who gassed out late in round two but still banked the first two rounds and was able to narrowly hang on to survive round three as Johnson desperately pushed for a finish. Estevam was only able to land 3 of his 22 takedown attempts, but finished with over nine minutes of control time to squeak by with the judges. Just before that loss, Johnson lost all three rounds against Cody Durden, who took Johnson down 11 times on 18 attempts and controlled him for nine and a half minutes. Prior to that, Johnson lost a close split decision against Ode Osbourne, in a fight that Johnson accepted on short notice and had to travel around the world with a sinus infection to show up for, as he had been in Thailand when he got the offer. Even Ode Osbourne took Johnson down three times on 10 attempts and Osbourne has only landed one other takedown in his other eight UFC fights. Seven of Johnson’s eight UFC fights went the distance (3-4), with the one exception being a 2023 R1 TKO win over a terrible Jimmy Flick, who was coming out of retirement after taking over two years off. Before joining the UFC, Johnson was the LFA Flyweight champ and had been accustomed to taking part in five-round fights.

Now 15-6 as a pro, Johnson has six wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. Three of his knockouts came in round one, two ended in round two, and one occurred in round five. Two of his three submission victories ended in round two, with the other ending in round one. He’s never been finished, with all six of his losses ending in decisions. Twelve of his last 13 fights made it out of the first round, with 10 of those seeing the third round, and two seeing the fifth round of LFA title fights.

Overall, Johnson is an uptempo striker with a good submission defense but poor defensive wrestling. That has resulted in him getting taken down and controlled for the majority of his UFC career, but never finished. He’s survived on the mat against several dangerous grapplers in the UFC and also went the distance against Brandon Royval in a 2018 decision loss. In his eight UFC fights, Johnson only landed three takedowns of his own on 13 attempts (23.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 33 of their 101 attempts (67.3% defense). He doesn’t have a ton of power, but tends to wear on his opponents, with three of his last four finishes coming beyond the first round. While he only averages 4.48 SSL/min, that has a lot to do with how much time he’s spent being controlled on the mat, and he does have the ability to put up big striking totals, as we saw when he landed 115 significant strikes against Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Johnson only joined the UFC in July 2022, but this will already be his ninth fight with the organization and he’s been happy to step on short notice time and time again. He’ll be taking another fight on short notice here as he stepped in on just 11 days’ notice.

Fight Prediction:

Johnson will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while Van is 11 years younger than the 33-year-old Johnson.

This is the people’s main event and sets up as an exciting striking battle between two high-paced strikers. They will also each mix in occasional takedowns, but they do their best work on the feet and we’re expecting this one to remain mostly standing. Van has shown the ability to put up massive striking totals, averaging 9.08 SSL/min, most on the slate. Johnson only averages 4.48 SSL/min, but a large part of that is because he’s spent so much time being controlled on the mat. It will be interesting to see if the elevation plays a factor in what should be a very high-paced fight and that will be the wildcard in the matchup. Neither guy has ever been knocked out and unless someone completely gasses out it would be surprising to see a finish. So we’re fully expecting it to end in a high-volume decision and while Johnson has a shot at pulling off the upset, we’re not sure if he can quite match the output of Van and we have to side with the youngster in this one.

Our favorite bet here is “Joshua Van Over 91.5 SS” at -115.

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DFS Implications:

Van has averaged 107 DraftKings points in his three UFC fights/wins, despite two of those going the distance. He recently landed his first finish with the organization and put up a slate-breaking total of 135 points, as he completely filled up the stat sheet. However, his last two wins were both against debuting opponents and he’ll face a step up in competition here against Johnson, who’s never been finished. The only way we see Van finding a finish is if the elevation and short notice nature of the matchup result in Johnson completely gassing out, but we’re not expecting that. That likely leaves Van reliant on putting up a monster striking total to score well, and we could also see him mix in a few takedown attempts. He has a solid volume-driven scoring floor, but he only scored 80 DraftKings points in a decision in his UFC debut and then 106 points in his next decision win. So at his higher price tag it’s still very possible for him to put up a big striking total and still not score quite enough to end up in the optimal. However, he should be a staple in low-risk and smaller field contests and he’ll still have a decent chance of scoring enough to get there in larger tournaments in what should be a super high-paced fight. Van is especially interesting on FanDuel, where striking is more valuable. The odds imply Van has a 69% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

Johnson has averaged 86 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, but only once topped 83 points, which was in his lone early win with the organization. That came in a first round TKO against a terrible Jimmy Flick, where Johnson put up 114 points. He only averaged 76 points in his three decision wins, but now gets a super uptempo matchup against a high-volume striker. Van averages 9.08 SSL/min and 5.77 SSA/min, and if Johnson can manage to match his pace then he should be looking at a massive striking total. It’s also possible that Johnson could look to wrestle some here, as Van is still very inexperienced on the mat. And at Johnson’s cheap price tag, he doesn't need to put up a crazy score to end up in winning lineups. He’s also never been finished, which leaves him with a safer floor and adds to his appeal in smaller contests. While we’re not expecting Johnson to win, if he does, he’ll have a good shot at ending up in winning even without a finish. The odds imply Johnson has a 31% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Abdul Razak Alhassan

13th UFC Fight (6-6)

Looking to bounce back from a second round submission loss to Joe Pyfer, Alhassan has traded wins and losses over his last five fights but is just 2-5 in his last seven outings. Pyfer was able to take Alhassan down three times in a fight that only lasted seven minutes, before locking up an arm triangle midway through round two. Prior to that, Alhassan landed the first win of his career to make it out of the first round (barely), as he knocked out a debuting Claudio Ribeiro 28 seconds into round two. Alhassan showed more patience in that fight and afterwards said his coaches had pleaded with him to take that approach. However, once he had Ribeiro hurt he didn’t waste any time going in for the kill. That followed a split decision loss to Joaquin Buckley, after Alhassan landed a 17 second first round knockout against a struggling Alessio Di Chirico. Just before that, Alhassan lost a wrestling-heavy decision to Jacob Malkoun in Alhassan’s first UFC fight up at 185 lb. He had previously been fighting at 170 lb, but missed weight in back-to-back losses in 2020, following 22 months away from competition. Alhassan got violently knocked out in his final 170 lb fight by Khaos Williams in just 30 seconds.

Now 12-6 as a pro, all 12 of Alhassan career wins ended in knockouts, with 11 of those ending in round one and the other in the opening 30 seconds of round two. He’s also been knocked out in the first round once himself, submitted once in round two, and dropped all four of the decisions he’s been to. Alhassan fought anywhere from 170 lb to 190 lb early in his pro career, before settling in at 170 lb when he made his 2016 UFC debut. He went 4-3 in his seven UFC fights at 170 lb, before moving up to 185 lb in 2021, where he’s since gone 2-3.

Overall, Alhassan is a 38-year-old Ghanaian power puncher who relies on knocking opponents out to win fights and showed cardio concerns earlier in his career. However, he’s also a Judo black belt and will occasionally mix in takedown attempts. He’s been training in Colorado at Team Elevation since 2021, which may be benefiting his cardio some. In his 12 UFC fights, he landed 5 of his 13 takedown attempts (38.5% accuracy). After landing just two takedowns on seven attempts in his first nine UFC appearances, he’s landed three of his six attempts in his last three matches. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 27 of their 54 attempts (50% defense). He was taken down three or more times in each of his last three losses and has looked like a complete liability on the mat.

Cody Brundage

10th UFC Fight (4-5)

Brundage is just three months removed from a second round submission loss to Bo Nickal and is now 2-4 in his last six fights. Both of those wins were pretty flukey, as one ended in a DQ for an illegal elbow to the back of the head against Jacob Malkoun, who was absolutely mauling Brundage on the mat, and the other came via slam knockout against a debuting opponent on a card where it looked like the Octagon floor was made of concrete as we got back-to-back R1 knockouts via slam. Brundage survived longer than anyone else had against Nical, but still got taken down three times and controlled for seven and a half minutes in a fight that only lasted eight and a half minutes. Prior to his DQ win against Malkoun, Brundage had lost three straight fights, with the most recent of those losses coming against Sedriques Dumas in one of the stupidest performances you’ll ever see. Brundage repeatedly jumped guillotine over and over again, despite having the wrestling advantage. Everyone watching was left saying, “This idiot can’t possibly be going for another guillotine…andddd he did it again.” Eight weeks prior to that June 2023 loss, Brundage got submitted in the second round by Rodolfo Vieira, after getting knocked out in the first round of a December 2022 match against Michal Oleksiejczuk. Leading up to those three losses, Brundage landed two first round finishes of his own, although he nearly got finished himself in one of those before pulling off a hail mary guillotine against Dalcha Lungiambula. He then knocked out Tresean Gore in the first round, who appeared to have a brutal weight cut for the match. Brundage’s one other UFC fight was a wrestling-heavy decision loss to Nick Maximov in his short notice UFC debut, and Brundage has made a habit out of taking fights on short notice and typically performing terribly.

Now 10-6 as a pro, Brundage has five wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, one decision victory, and one DQ win. Six of his eight finishes occurred in the first round, while he also has one in round two and another in round three. He’s been knocked out in two of his losses, submitted twice more, and has two decision defeats. Both of his knockout losses occurred in round one, while both of his submission defeats came in round two. One of those knockout losses came on DWCS in 2020 against William Knight in a fight took place at 205 lb and Brundage has fought anywhere from 185 lb to 205 lb throughout his career. However, his last nine fights have all been at 185 lb and he claims he could even make 170 lb if he really needed to.

Overall, Brundage is a former college wrestler, who has been working on improving his striking and has decent power. He’s got an unbelievably low fight IQ and makes some of the worst choices you’ll ever see inside of the Octagon. However, he’s still relatively early in his career with just 16 pro fights to his name, and he only turned pro in 2019. Between his nine UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Brundage landed 10 takedowns on 19 attempts (47.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down 10 times on 32 attempts (73.1% defense). Despite training at altitude at Factory X, his cardio has appeared suspect at times, but that hasn’t stopped him from accepting one short notice fight after the next. His willingness to step in on short notice appears to be why the UFC has allowed him to stick around, as he hasn’t done much to impress inside of the Octagon. He made it sound like he plans to lean on his wrestling in this next fight and said he thinks he can secure a second round submission win.

Fight Prediction:

Brundage will have a 2” height advantage, but Alhassan will have a 1” reach advantage. Brundage is eight years younger than the 38-year-old Alhassan.

This is the one fight on the card where both fighters train out of Denver, which theoretically negates any home field advantage and both fighters should be acclimated to the elevation. However, Alhassan has never won a fight that lasted longer than five and a half minutes and we have seen him slow down after the first round in the past. With that said, all four of Brundage’s UFC wins also ended in the first round and both of these guys are generally looking to end things quickly. Brundage has a massive wrestling advantage in this matchup and has openly stated that he plans on using his ground game to win this fight. While Brundage has proven at numerous points that he can’t be trusted and often wilts under pressure, it’s hard not to like his chances of getting this fight to the mat and finding a finish. Joe Pyfer isn’t any sort of submission savant, and was easily able to lock up an arm-triangle choke after taking Alhassan down, with essentially zero resistance. Brundage has two arm-triangle chokes on his record and should be drooling over the tape watching that. He’ll still need to be careful not to get caught shooting in and Alhassan has a ton of power, but we like Brundage to get this fight to the mat and submit Alhassan in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Cody Brundage SUB” at +500.

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DFS Implications:

Alhassan has historically been a KO or bust fighter, with all 12 of his career wins coming by knockout in under five and half minutes. The first 11 of those ended in round one, while the most recent came 28 seconds into round two. He’s getting up there in age at 38-years-old and spent most of his UFC career at 170 lb, before moving up to 185 lb in 2021. While he’s only landed five takedowns in 12 Octagon appearances, he is a Judo black belt and was able to take Joaquin Buckley down three times. So he’s not incapable of wrestling, although he’s looked terrible off his back. However, he only scored 42 DraftKings points in his last decision loss and has given us no indication that he can return value without a finish. While we saw his ownership dip in his last fight against the ever popular Joe Pyfer, Alhassan has historically been very popular in DFS. And with the line moving in his favor and everyone hating Cody Brundage with a passion, we expect Alhassan to be highly owned in this spot. That lowers his tournament appeal, but if he does land a knockout he’ll likely end up in winning lineups at his reasonable salary. The odds imply Alhassan has a 61% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.

Brundage has averaged 103 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, with all four of those wins ending in round one. However, he’s been very fortunate even to go 4-5 in the UFC. His last knockout win came from a flukey slam, after he won via DQ just before that. He was also getting dominated in another one of his victories before he locked up a hail mary guillotine. He hasn’t been very impressive in the UFC and makes terrible decisions inside the Octagon. However, he’ll have a massive wrestling advantage in this matchup and Alhassan has been incredibly prone to getting taken down, as he gave up 16 takedowns in his last three losses and was easily submitted on the mat in his last outing. Alhassan is also now 38 years old and spent most of his career at 170 lb, before moving up to 185 lb in 2021. Brundage ended up in the DraftKings winning lineup in all four of his UFC wins and if he can avoid getting knocked out early then he’ll have a really good shot at getting the fight to the ground, finding a finish, and once again ending up in tournament winning lineups. He makes for a great leverage play off of the popular Alhassan and the Brundage has consistently been low owned in all of his fights. The odds imply Brundage has a 39% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Christian Rodriguez

6th UFC Fight (4-1)

Rodriguez’s recent controversial upset decision win over Isaac Dulgarian perfectly encapsulates the shift in judging we’ve seen over the last year or two where control wrestling is now being awarded absolutely no value. So while Dulgarian took Rodriguez down four times in the second round and controlled him for four minutes and 11 seconds, two of the three judges placed no value on that and instead awarded Rodriguez the round for finishing slightly ahead in significant strikes (12-8) and in total strikes (18-15), while also landing the more impactful shots. That was the only contested round in the fight, as Dulgarian dominated Rodriguez on the mat in round one and was then nearly finished himself in round three after he completely gassed out. All three judges scored both the first and third rounds 10-8, so the result hinged on round two. Dulgarian finished the fight with seven takedowns landed on 16 attempts, with close to nine and a half minutes of control time and two submission attempts, but Rodriguez led in significant strikes 48-22 and in total strikes 97-56. That was Rodriguez’s fourth straight win, but just his first since moving up from 135 lb to 145 lb following two straight weight misses at 135 lb. He missed weight by a ridiculous four pounds in his last 135 lb fight, where he won a decision over the previously undefeated Cameron Saaiman. That came after he missed by 1.5 lb in another decision win over Raul Rosas Jr., who had also been undefeated but gassed out after winning the first round. That came after Rodriguez landed a first round submission against a low-level debuting opponent in Joshua Weems, who was stepping in on short notice. Rodriguez’s lone UFC loss occurred just before that in his own short notice UFC debut up a weight class against a really tough/huge wrestler in Jonathan Pearce. While Rodriguez lost a decision in that fight, he gave a good account of himself and nearly locked up a submission at multiple points. Rodriguez originally tried to crack the UFC through DWCS, but wasn’t awarded a contract following an October 2021 decision win over Tracy Cortez’s older brother, Reyes Cortez Jr. Following the DWCS victory, Rodriguez returned to the regional scene for one fight where he landed a first round submission, at which point the UFC brought him on when they needed someone to fill a slot on short notice.

Now 11-1 as a pro, Rodriguez has three wins by TKO, four submissions, and four decision victories. He has five first round finishes, although three of those occurred in his first three pro fights. He also has a second round submission win and a third round TKO. Three of his last four finishes have come by submission and all three of his TKO victories occurred in his first five pro fights. He’s never been finished himself and his only career loss came by decision in his short notice UFC debut up a weight class. Rodriguez has fought anywhere between 135 lb and 150 lb in his career. He’s 6-0 at 135 lb, 2-0 at 140 lb Catchweight, 2-1 at 145 lb, and 1-0 at 150 lb Catchweight.

Overall, Rodriguez is a young, well-rounded fighter who doesn’t stand out as being exceptional anywhere, but is solid everywhere. He does a good job of just touching up his opponents, without loading up on his strikes and he’s also a BJJ purple belt. Between his five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 6 of his 11 takedown attempts (54.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 20 of their 60 attempts (66.7% defense). The only one of those opponents who failed to get him down was a striker in Cameron Saaiman, and the other five opponents all landed multiple takedowns. His submission grappling has looked pretty decent, both defensively and offensively, and he likes to look for chokes in the grappling exchanges, while he’s also done a good job of protecting his own neck. He’s only 26 years old and has just 12 pro fights, so he’s still very early in his career and should be continuing to improve between every fight. This will also be his second straight fight at 145 lb, so he’s had some time to grow into the new weight class.

Julian Erosa

15th UFC Fight (7-7)

Fresh off a first round submission win over Ricardo Ramos, Erosa’s last three fights all ended in 184 seconds or less. Prior to snatching up Ramos’ neck in a guillotine, Erosa suffered a TKO loss to Fernando Padilla, although in fairness to Erosa it was definitely a quick stoppage. Just before that, Erosa got knocked out in round one by Alex Caceres, who previously hadn’t knocked anybody out since 2010, so obviously that’s not a great look. However, Erosa was able to rattle off three straight wins leading up to those two losses, with a pair of decision wins over Hakeem Dawodu and Steven Peterson, and a third round submission victory over Charles Jourdain. Dawodu notably missed weight for the first time in his career, by 3.5 lb no less, and never really showed up in the fight. Based on the weight miss and his performance, there’s a decent chance Dawodu was injured or sick coming into that fight and he looked nothing like his normal self. Just before that, Peterson also missed weight by 3 lb and would go on to lose one more time and then retire. Erosa’s only other loss in his last 10 fights came against Seung Woo Choi in another first round knockout, and Erosa has been knocked out in his last four losses. While two of his last five fights went the distance, 9 of his last 11 ended early (5-4). Erosa originally made his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in 2015, but after starting 1-1 he was released in 2016. He then worked his way back into the organization through DWCS in 2018, but lost three straight fights and was released again in 2019. However, after winning one fight on the regional scene, the UFC brought Erosa back to fight Sean Woodson on short notice and Erosa landed a third round submission win and has now gone 6-3 in his third stint with the UFC.

Now 29-11 as a pro, Erosa has 11 wins by KO/TKO, 13 submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out seven times and has four decision losses. Five of his KO losses occurred in round one, while one ended in round two and the other round three. On the flipside, he only has one knockout win since 2018 and four of his last five finishes ended in submissions, with two of those coming in the third round of Catchweight fights he took on short notice. Erosa is basically the 150 lb Catchweight king, as he’s gone 5-0 in his career in Catchweight fights, with all five wins coming early. He would be the perfect candidate for a 150 lb division as he’s competed extensively at both 145 lb and 155 lb in his career. In his 14 UFC fights, he’s gone 4-6 at 145 lb, 2-0 at 150 lb, and 1-1 at 155 lb.

Overall, Erosa is a fearless brawler who also possesses dangerous submission skills, but has shown a suspect chin. He’s been especially prone to getting knocked out at 145 lb, where this fight will be, and the weight cut down to 145 lb can’t be getting any easier as the 6’1” Erosa is now 34 years old. He averages 6.14 SSL/min and 6.29 SSA/min and he landed 92 or more significant strikes in each of his last three fights that made it out of the first round. He’s also landed two or more takedowns in each of his last four fights to make it out of the first round, while only one of his last nine opponents got him down, which was Ramos who Erosa quickly submitted. In his nine fights since returning to the UFC in 2020, Erosa landed 10 takedowns on 23 attempts (43.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down twice on five attempts (60% defense). In a recent interview, Erosa said he’s planning on a longer fight and he thinks he has the grappling advantage.

Fight Prediction:

Erosa will have a massive 6” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while Rodriguez is eight years younger than the 34-year-old Erosa.

Erosa’s biggest weakness has been his chin, but Rodriguez is less likely than most to capitalize on that and five of his last seven fights went the distance, with the other two ending in quick submission wins. Both of these guys are decent grapplers who have never been submitted, lowering the chances we see this fight end in a submission. We would also be surprised to see Erosa knock Rodriguez out and if the fight ends early it’s likely because Erosa got knocked out yet again. But as we just mentioned, Rodriguez hasn’t looked like much of a knockout threat and there’s a good chance this fight goes the distance, even though 9 of Erosa’s last 11 fights ended early. Erosa’s size advantage should help him to strike from the outside and potentially overpower Rodriguez in the wrestling exchanges and we think he has a decent shot at pulling off the upset in a close decision. Just keep in mind, Rodriguez has an uncanny ability to win every close decision he’s been to and that could easily happen again here.

Our favorite bet here is “Julian Erosa DEC” at +360.

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DFS Implications:

Rodriguez has won four straight fights, although his last victory was pretty controversial and it seems like the general consensus is he lost or it could have been a draw. He got dominated on the mat early in that fight until Isaac Dulgarian gassed out and Rodriguez took over late. Even when facing an absolutely exhausted opponent, Rodriguez was still unable to find a finish and ultimately won his third straight decision, but only scored 65 DraftKings points. He was able to put up 91 points in a higher volume decision just before that, but has still averaged just 81 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, failing to top 96 points in any of those. His only finish was a first round submission against a terrible short notice debuting opponent and Rodriguez doesn’t offer a ton of power. So while Erosa has been knocked out seven times in his career, Rodriguez is less likely to be able to capitalize on Erosa’s suspect durability, although we said the same thing about Alex Caceres and he knocked Erosa out in the first round. So there’s definitely a shot that Rodriguez can land a knockout, but we don’t see him returning value at his high price tag outside of that. The odds imply Rodriguez has a 68% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Erosa has averaged 104 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, scoring 93 or more points in each of his last six victories. He’s an aggressive brawler, who averages 6.14 SSL/min and 6.29 SSA/min, and he’s also landed at least two takedowns in his last four fights that made it out of the first round. However, his chin has been bad for years and appears to be getting worse if anything in his mid thirties. He’s been knocked out seven times and his last two losses both ended in R1 KO/TKOs. That always leaves him with a non-existent scoring floor, but now he’s at least facing an opponent who previously was competing at 135 lb and doesn’t throw with a ton of power. That’s encouraging for Erosa’s chances of not dying and he’ll have a significant size advantage in this matchup. Almost everyone takes Rodriguez down multiple times and Erosa is a pretty decent grappler, which could allow him to score decently even without a finish. Rodriguez has had two UFC fights at 145 lb in the UFC and arguably lost both of those, getting dominated on the mat each time. And at Erosa’s cheap price tag, he doesn’t need to put up a score to sneak into winning lineups. Erosa always has a very wide range of scoring outcomes and is always one misstep away from a trip to the abyss, but this is a very winnable fight for him and he looks like a solid tournament option. The odds imply Erosa has a 32% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Gabriel Bonfim

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Coming off his first career loss, Bonfim gassed out after a round and a half and was finished in a second round TKO at the hands of decision grinder Nicolas Dalby. Before gassing out, Bonfim was looking great as he took Dalby down three times, controlled him for over four minutes, outlanded him 30-16 in the opening five minutes, and won the first round on all three scorecards. However, he couldn’t maintain that pace for more than a round and a half and Dalby made him pay for it. Prior to that, Bonfim locked up a pair of quick submission wins in his first two UFC fights, both by guillotine in 73 seconds or less. Bonfim also secured a first round submission win on DWCS just before that, which followed yet another first round submission victory to secure the LFA Welterweight belt in just 79 seconds. Bonfim has only made it out of the first round twice in his last seven fights, and he’s only been to the third round twice in his career. One of those times was in the 2021 LFA Welterweight Grand Prix where rounds were only three minutes long and only once in Bonfim’s career has he been in a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes.

Now 15-1 as a pro, Bonfim has three wins by KO/TKO and 12 submissions. He has eight first round finishes, five in round two, and two in round three. His only loss ended in a late second round TKO. While he currently fights at 170 lb, Bonfim turned pro in 2014 at 135 lb when he was just 17 years old before moving up to 155 lb later that year. He then moved up to 170 lb in 2019, where he’s remained since.

Overall, Bonfim is a well rounded fighter who started boxing when he was 14 years old, before shifting to MMA a few years later. So despite the majority of his wins coming by submission, he started out striking before adding jiu-jitsu to his game. That makes him a very dangerous fighter to deal with, and he’s a threat to finish fights both on the feet and the mat. He has fast hands and he seamlessly stitches combinations together, although he does leave his chin a little high and seems more focussed on offense than defense. He loves to look for chokes after hurting opponents on the feet, which is one of the reasons why he has so many submission finishes. Between his DWCS match and his three UFC fights, he landed 5 of his 7 takedown attempts (71.4% accuracy) and successfully defended each of the two attempts against him. His one weakness appears to be his cardio and he completely gassed out midway through his last fight. It will be interesting to see what improvements he’s made in that area and whether or not he paces himself more after that cardio collapse. The UFC also seems interested in that regard as they booked him at elevation to really test his gas tank.

Ange Loosa

5th UFC Fight (2-1, NC)

Loosa’s last fight was abruptly stopped in round two after Loosa took a thumb to the eye and then told the doctor he couldn’t see. While it’s always hard to gauge the severity of eye pokes, it didn’t appear that bad and it seemed like Loosa just took the easy way out in a fight he was losing. Battle won the first round on all three scorecards and Loosa was never able to get anything going in the fight, as Battle controlled the range and never let Loosa get close to landing a takedown. Prior to that, Loosa was a pair of decisions, after losing a decision in his short notice UFC debut against Mounir Lazzez and also losing a decision to Jack Della Maddalena on DWCS in 2021. In between those two losses, Loosa won a decision on the Louisiana regional scene just two weeks before making his UFC debut. In total, Loosa fought to seven straight decisions (4-3) leading up to his recent No Contest. The last time one of his matches ended via stoppage was all the way back in a 2016 R1 TKO win via “Exhaustion.” However, his first six pro fights all ended in first round finishes. In his last win, Loosa looked close to finding a finish at times in the first two rounds as he poured in on Rhys McKee with a combination of wrestling and striking. However, McKee survived the onslaught and then nearly finished Loosa in the final minute of the fight, but simply ran out of time as an exhausted Loosa hung on to get his hand raised. Just over a year before that, Loosa secured his first UFC victory in a high-volume decision over AJ Fletcher. Fletcher had Loosa badly hurt late in round two and nearly finished him, but instead gassed out pushing for the finish, in a fight that took place at elevation in Salt Lake City. Loosa then nearly finished an exhausted Fletcher in round three with extensive ground and pound, but with a long leash from the ref the fight somehow managed to go the distance.

Now 10-3 plus a No Contest as a pro, Loosa has five wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. He’s never been finished, with all three of his losses going the distance. All of those losses occurred in his last eight fights. Loosa’s training partners have said he’s calmed down some after being kind of wild earlier in his career, and his record backs that up.

Overall, Loosa is a well rounded fighter with good wrestling and powerful striking. He trains out of Kill Cliff FC and has spent extensive time working with Kamaru Usman, in addition to Gilbert Burns and numerous other high-level UFC fighters. While Loosa has power in his hands, he misses a lot and has just a 46% striking accuracy. And while he’s durable, he absorbs a ton of strikes, averaging 6.67 SSA/min. It seems like he relies too much on his power and durability, which results in him getting outstruck and makes it tougher for him to win fights unless he dominates the wrestling exchanges or finishes his opponents. Between his DWCS appearance and his four UFC fights, he landed 9 of his 21 takedown attempts (42.9% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down once on 11 attempts (90.9% defense). While he was able to land six takedowns against McKee and two against Fletcher, Loosa only landed one of his seven attempts between his losses to Lazzez and Della Maddalena and his No Contest against Battle. That’s somewhat concerning for his ability to find wrestling success against tougher competition, and we’ve also seen him slow down in the back half of fights. However, he’s still only 30 years and should still be making improvements at this stage in his career.

Fight Prediction:

Bonfim will have a 3” height advantage, but Loosa will have a 2” reach advantage. Bonfim is four years younger than the 30-year-old Loosa.

This will be an opportunity at redemption for both of these guys, as Bonfim is now battling with being called a gasser, while Loosa recently earned the reputation of being a quitter. Loosa has also been known to gas out at times in the past as well, so it’s interesting that the UFC matched these two up at elevation to really test their dubious gas tanks. Bonfim has relied on landing quick finishes throughout his career and has only been in one fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes, while he’s never made it to the scorecards. Loosa is basically the exact opposite, as he hasn’t finished anybody since 2016 and fought to seven straight decisions leading up to his recent No Contest. We often see an overcorrection after fighters gas out, where they come in far more tentative in their next fight, but that’s certainly not always the case. We’re curious to see what Bonfim’s approach will be, but he’s given us no indication that he can go three hard rounds at sea level, let alone at elevation. Loosa has never been finished and comes in with a 90% takedown defense, so on paper this looks like a tougher matchup for Bonfim to find a finish. While Bonfim is the more talented fighter in this matchup, without cardio, talent is a mirage. We see three potential ways for this fight to play out. The first would be for Bonfim to slow his pace way down to try and prevent gassing out again and simply outpoint his way to the first decision win of his career. The alternative is that he changes nothing and either finishes Loosa in the first two rounds or gasses out trying and gets finished late or loses a decision. Since Bonfim knows that Loosa has never been finished and that this fight is taking place at elevation, we lean towards him slowing things down and wrestling less in a concerted effort to manage his gas tank better. And even if Bonfim does slow down late in the fight, Loosa has the potential to do the same, which could result in a sloppier third round that still goes the distance. We’ll say Bonfim paces himself enough to win the first decision of his career here.

Our favorite bet here is “Gabriel Bonfim DEC” at +330.

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DFS Implications:

Bonfim is coming off his first career loss where he completely gassed out in the second round and was finished. Prior to that, he started his pro career with 15 straight finishes and submitted each of his first two UFC opponents in 73 seconds or less, returning DraftKings scores of 97 and 119 points. His one really big score came with the help of the Quick Win Bonus and he lovers looking for guillotines, which generally aren’t the best way to put up huge scores. At Bonfim’s expensive salary, that creates a clear way he finds another first round finish and still gets priced out of winning lineups. He’s also facing an opponent in Loosa who’s never been finished, so it doesn’t look like the best matchup for Bonfim to end things early. And considering that Bonfim gassed out after seven minutes in his last fight and will now be competing at elevation, we have concerns with both his cardio and the potential for him to try and slow things down to prevent another cardio collapse. That leaves him with all sorts of landmines to navigate and multiple ways for him to bust in DFS. And while Loosa averages a slate-leading 6.67 SSA/min, Bonfim has given us no indication that he can push a high pace for 15 minutes and score well in a decision—if he ever makes it to one. Despite his recent collapse, we still expect Bonfim to be popular based on his finishing history, so there should be a lot of leverage to be gained by fading him in tournaments, you’ll just need to hold your breath for the first 60 seconds and then also hope he doesn’t land a well timed late first round finish. The betting market has this fight heavily favored to make it out of the first round, which is encouraging for Bonfim’s chances of busting. The odds imply Bonfim has a 74% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.

Loosa seemed to quit in his last fight when he told the doctor he couldn’t see after taking a thumb to the eye that really didn’t look that bad. That resulted in a No Contest, but he was losing the fight and wasn’t going to score well regardless in that matchup as he was never able to get anything going. However, prior to that he put up back-to-back huge scores, despite the fact that he hasn’t finished anybody since 2016. He offers a combination of wrestling and high-paced striking (6.09 SSL/min & 6.67 SSA/min) that’s perfect for DFS. His most recent decision win was good for 115 DraftKings points, after he scored 124 points before that. Just keep in mind, the most recent of those wins was against Rhys McKee, who’s 0-4 in the UFC and has been dominated on the mat by everyone he’s face in the UFC, while the previous win was against AJ Fletcher, who’s 1-3 in the UFC and has also struggled on his back and with his cardio. Despite each of the two opponents struggling to find wins in the UFC, they both almost knocked Loosa out in the later rounds. So while Loosa has never actually been finished in his career, he has had some close calls and we still don’t fully trust his scoring floor. Nevertheless, he’s shown massive upside when he can get his wrestling going. He’s facing a tough opponent in Bonfim here, who has a nasty guillotine and has never given up a takedown, which both present problems for Loosa to rely on his wrestling. However, Bonfim did just gas out and get finished in the second round of his last fight and will now be competing at elevation. So the potential for Bonfim to gas out once again is squarely in play, which is Loosa’s best hope for pulling off the upset. At Loosa’s cheap price tag, he doesn’t need to put up a huge score to end up in winning lineups, but he also has a zero point scoring floor if he gets caught early. The odds imply Loosa has a 26% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Drew Dober

24th UFC Fight (13-9, NC)

Dober had been scheduled to fight Mike Davis here, but Davis pulled out with a torn Bicep and Silva was announced as the replacement on July 3rd, just 10 days before the fight.

Looking to bounce back from a smothering decision loss to Renato Moicano, Dober has traded wins and losses over his last four fights, with three of those fights ending in under eight minutes. In his recent loss to Moicano, Dober got taken down three times and controlled for 10 and a half minutes and his defensive wrestling/grappling has been a problem for him throughout his career. Prior to that loss, Dober landed a first round knockout against Ricky Glenn, after suffering a rare knockout loss of his own in the first round against Matt Frevola. That was Dober’s first knockout loss in the UFC and only the second in his 41-fight pro career, with the other occurring all the way back in 2011. The loss to Frevola was arguably a quick stoppage and we’ve seen Dober recover from worse in a fight. Leading up to that loss, Dober knocked out three straight opponents and he’s only required the judges twice in his last 12 fights. Dober’s last seven wins all ended in knockouts and the last time he won a decision was in 2018.

Now 27-13 plus a No Contest as a pro, Dober has 14 wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and seven decision victories. All of his submission wins occurred early in his career, with the last of those coming in 2014. Of his 14 knockout wins, six came in round one, six ended in round two, and two occurred in round three. He’s also been knocked out twice himself, submitted four times, and has seven decision losses. Five of his six early losses occurred in the first two rounds, with the one exception being a R3 arm-triangle submission loss to Islam Makhachev.

Overall, Dober is a powerful and durable brawler who generally comes out ahead in firefights, but often struggles against grapplers. His background is primarily in Muay Thai and Taekwondo, where he’s a black belt, although he is also a BJJ brown belt for what it’s worth. While Dober has six submission wins on his record and wrestled some in high school, he’s definitely not a grappler. In his last 10 fights, Dober was taken down 17 times on 35 opponent attempts, while landing two of his own nine attempts over that same stretch. Looking at his entire career, he has just an 18% takedown accuracy and only a 56% defense. Frevola is the only fighter since 2016 to defeat Dober without taking him down. While Dober relies almost entirely on his striking, he still only averages 4.34 SSL/min. He’s only landed more than 73 significant strikes once in 23 Octagon appearances, which was in a 2018 decision win over Frank Camacho, who averaged an eye-popping 7.44 SSA/min in his career. In a recent interview, Dober said he wants to be a little more offensive with his grappling/wrestling moving forward, so it will be interesting to see if he looks to get Silva to the mat in this next fight.

Jean Silva

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Silva is just two weeks removed from a second round knockout win over Charles Jourdain, which is the first time Jourdain has ever been knocked out. That fight took place at 145 lb, although Silva missed weight by a pound and a half. While Jourdain came into that matchup with just one takedown landed in 13 UFC appearances, he took Silva down three times on seven attempts in just under six and a half minutes. However, Jourdain appeared tentative to engage with Silva on the feet and got dropped in both round one and round two. Prior to that, Silva had been scheduled to fight William Gomis on May 4th but Gomis dropped out during weigh-ins and the fight was canceled. That came after Silva was gifted Westin Wilson in his UFC debut and did what any decent fighter in the UFC would do as he knocked Wilson out in round one. Just before that, Silva went on DWCS and notched his first career decision win against a 21-year-old opponent. Silva has now won 10 straight fights, with eight of those ending in the first round and another 82 seconds into round two.

Now 13-2 as a pro, Silva has 10 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision win. NIne of his 12 finishes ended in round one, with the other three coming in round two. He’s never been finished himself, with both of his losses going the distance in his first five pro fights. Silva competed some down at 135 lb early in his career before moving up to 145 lb in 2017. He also had one fight at 155 lb just before going on DWCS, and now he’ll be returning to 155 lb for this upcoming short notice matchup.

Overall, Silva is an aggressive finisher who has good power and will look for guillotines, but doesn’t appear to have very good wrestling. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 2 of his 4 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 3 of their 11 attempts (72.7% defense). Silva has described himself as “the most aggressive fighter in the world” and he appears far more focussed on offense than defense, which is bound to catch up with him eventually. He trains with the Fighting Nerds team in Brazil, who have been on a roll lately, but now he’ll face the toughest test of his career on short notice.

Fight Prediction:

Dober will have a 1” height and reach advantage, but Silva is eight years younger than the 35-year-old Dober.

Silva just knocked out Charles Jourdain at 145 lb on the last UFC card (June 29th) and will now be making an immediate turnaround to face Drew Dober up a weight class at 155 lb. The fight will also be at elevation in Denver, where Dober trains and will have the home crowd behind him. So Silva has basically everything working against him other than momentum, as he’s won 10 straight fights and Dober is coming off a loss. It was impressive that Silva was able to knock out Jourdain, but Jourdain isn’t the biggest 145 lb fighter and now Silva will be moving up to 155 lb to take on a heavy hitter in Dober. While Dober has been prone to getting taken down and submitted, Silva doesn’t appear equipped to capitalize on that and we expect this fight to remain mostly on the feet. They’ve each been pretty durable, but Silva hasn’t really had his chin tested much and we still like Dober’s chances of knocking him out. Silva has also relied on landing quick finishes for most of his wins and the elevation could take its toll on him if the fight runs long. That’s just one more reason to like Dober in this matchup and we like him to win and most likely hand Silva his first early loss in a knockout.

Our favorite bet here is “Drew Dober ML” at -108.

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DFS Implications:

Dober has averaged 99 DraftKings points in his 13 UFC victories, with 10 of those wins coming early. He showed a decent floor in his three decision wins, averaging 89 DraftKings points in those fights, but has never scored more than 92 points without a finish. While his first five early wins in the UFC all ended in round one, three of his last five finishes came in the later rounds, and he’s never scored more than 96 DraftKings points in a fight that lasted longer than five minutes. However, that’s more of a concern when he’s priced as a large favorite, whereas he’s priced in the middle of the pack here. At his reasonable salary, he doesn’t need a massive score to end up in winning lineups, leaving him with a wider range of acceptable outcomes. While Silva has never been finished, he’s also never faced anyone as dangerous as Dober and stepped into this matchup at elevation on 10 days’ notice, up a weight class, after fighting just two weeks ago, and in enemy territory. All of those factors are encouraging for Dober’s chances of handing Silva his first early loss, and Dober’s last seven wins all came by knockout. The odds imply Dober has a 49% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.

Silva is just two weeks removed from handing Charles Jourdain the first knockout loss of his career, where Silva scored 104 DraftKings points in an early second round finish. That came after Silva landed a perfectly timed, late first round TKO win over a terrible Westin Wilson that was good for 115 DraftKings points. Silva has now won 10 straight fights, with eight of those ending in round one. That shows clear upside for him, but now he’s stepping into a very unfavorable position as he goes into enemy territory and takes on a very durable and powerful Drew Dober on short notice and up a weight class. Silva has only been past the 6:22 mark once since 2018 and it remains to be seen how his cardio will hold up at elevation if the fight runs long. We also haven’t seen his chin tested much and there’s still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Silva. His cheaper price tag and past scoring success should drive his ownership up, which greatly lowers his tournament appeal on this small slate. Silva’s decision win on DWCS only would have been good for 70 DraftKings points and 78 points on FanDuel, and by all accounts he’ll need a finish here to score well. The odds imply Silva has a 51% chance to win, a 38% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Santiago Ponzinibbio

18th UFC Fight (11-6)

Ponzinibbio is 15 months removed from a third round knockout loss to Kevin Holland. All three judges rightfully scored each of the first two rounds for Holland, who was easily outlanding Ponzinibbio in the pure striking battle and also had him hurt at the end of round one. Prior to that, Ponzinibbio narrowly avoided another loss when he landed a third round TKO win in a fight he was losing against short notice replacement Alex Morono. Leading up to that win, Ponzinibbio lost two straight split decisions and was just 1-3 in his previous four fights since returning in 2021 from an extended 26 month layoff following a 2018 R4 KO win over Neil Magny. Ponzinibbio won seven straight fights from 2015 to 2018, but then dealt with a bad staph infection that kept him out for over two years. After not fighting at all in 2019 or 2020, Ponzinibbio got knocked out in the first round by Li Jingliang upon his return in January 2021. He bounced back with a hardfought decision win over Miguel Baeza, but then lost close decisions to Geoff Neal and Michel Pereira.

Now 29-7 as a pro, Ponzinibbio has 16 wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and seven decision victories. He was knocked out in four of his seven career losses, but he’s never been submitted. Of his 22 early wins, he impressively has 14 first round finishes. His last submission victory came all the way back in 2012 just before joining the UFC.

Overall, Ponzinibbio is typically looking to turn fights into brawls, especially since returning from his extended layoff, and his highest three striking totals all occurred in his last five fights. He’s only landed six takedowns in 17 UFC appearances and three of those came against Mike Perry in 2017, so he doesn’t add much in terms of grappling. Looking at his defensive grappling, he has only been taken down once in his last 10 fights, but has also only faced three takedown attempts over that stretch. Looking at his entire UFC career, he’s been taken down 11 times on 28 attempts and owns a 60% takedown defense. He’ll turn 38 in September and is just 2-4 in his last six fights, and Ponzinibbio is definitely approaching the end of his career.

Muslim Salikhov

11th UFC Fight (6-4)

Salikhov is just five months removed from a first round knockout loss to Randy Brown, which is Brown’s only knockout win in his last 10 fights. Prior to that, Salikhov lost a decision to Nicolas Dalby after securing his first early win since 2019 in a third round knockout against a consistently compromised Andre Fialho. Despite landing the finish, Salikhov lost the first round after Fialho hurt him late in the round. However, he returned the favor in round two and at that point Fialho looked nearly out on his feet and it was just a matter of time before Salikhov finished him. Just before that win, Salikhov suffered the first knockout loss of his career against Li Jingliang, who finished Salikhov late in round two. That snapped a five-fight winning streak for Salikhov, with the last three of those wins going the distance.

Now 19-5 as a pro, Salikhov has 13 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and four decision victories. Thirteen of his 15 finishes occurred in the first round, one ended in round two, and the other came in round three. Four of his five career losses also ended early, with two submissions and two knockouts.

Overall, Salikhov’s most dangerous weapon is his lightning fast spinning kick. He doesn’t throw much volume, averaging just 3.36 SSL/min, but when he does land he makes it count. He began mixing in more takedown attempts recently, but still doesn’t offer a ton in terms of grappling. After failing to land a takedown in any of his first three UFC fights, he landed nine over his last seven matches. Looking at his entire UFC career, he landed 9 of his 22 takedown attempts (40.9% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 23 attempts (73.9% defense). Following his KO loss to Li Jingliang in his third most recent fight, Salikhov said he switched camps and began training at American Top Team, which he mentioned he thinks is the best gym to improve your wrestling. Salikhov is the most dangerous in round one and tends to slow down some later in fights, and you definitely have to wonder about how his cardio will hold up at elevation. He turned 40 years old a month ago and you have to wonder how much longer he’ll continue to keep fighting and any fight could be his last.

Fight Prediction:

Ponzinibbio will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while also being three years younger than the 40-year-old Salikhov.

Both of these two have trained at American Top Team so they should be somewhat familiar with one another, which always adds an interesting dynamic to matchups. They’re both on the tail end of their careers and durability has recently become a concern for each of them, which theoretically increases the chances that we see someone get knocked out. ​​Ponzinibbio has the cardio advantage, which will leave Salikhov more reliant on landing a knockout in the first half of the fight if he wants to pull off the upset. While Salikhov does throw dangerous spinning wheel kicks, those are always tougher to land and he only has one early win since 2019. Similarly, Ponzinibbio has only finished one opponent since 2018. That leaves this as a somewhat volatile matchup where both guys have the ability to finish the other, but they’re also each washed up enough that we could see a slower paced fight where no one is able to connect on a kill shot and it ends in a less eventful decision. Ponzinibbio has higher output, better cardio, and is a few years younger than Salikhov, and we lean towards Ponzinibbio either landing a late knockout or winning a decision as long as he doesn’t eat a flush spinning wheel kick in the first half of the fight.

Our favorite bet here is “Santiago Ponzinibbio R3 or DEC” at +150.

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DFS Implications:

Ponzinibbio has never scored more than 93 DraftKings points in a fight that made it out of the first round and hasn’t finished anybody in round one since 2017. His last five fights all made it to the third round, with three of those going the distance (1-2) and two ending in third round knockouts (1-1). He only scored 79 DraftKings points in that decision win and just 81 points in the third round finish. He offers next to nothing in terms of grappling and Salikhov averages just 2.94 SSA/min. At Ponzinibbio’s expensive price tag, he looks like nothing more than an aging R1 KO or bust play. However, he is facing a fellow washed up fighter in the 40-year-old Salikhov, who was just knocked out in the first round five months ago. That leaves some reason for optimism with Ponzinibbio, but he’s so far past his prime that it feels pretty gross clicking his name. The odds imply Ponzinibbio has a 62% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.

Salikhov’s low-volume striking and questionable cardio generally leaves him reliant on landing first round knockouts to really score well. His one second round finish in the UFC scored just 91 DraftKings points, while his lone third round knockout was only good for 82 points. He also only averaged 66 DraftKings points in his three decision wins, failing to top 80 points in any of those. The only time he topped 91 points in his career was in a 2019 first round knockout win, which is his only first round finish in the UFC. Considering he already has a suspect gas tank, the elevation in Denver will be especially concerning for him, leaving him even more reliant on a quick finish. Working in his favor, the 37-year-old Ponzinibbio has been knocked out four times in his career and is just 2-4 in his last six fights. Salikhov will have a shot at landing one of his patented spinning wheel kicks, and if he can connect on one there’s a high probability that it will end the fight. However, even at his cheap salary, we’re only interested in playing him for his early knockout chances. The odds imply Salikhov has a 38% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Rose Namajunas

16th UFC Fight (10-5)

Namajunas was originally scheduled to face Maycee Barber, but she dropped out and Cortez was announced as the replacement on June 25th, 18 days before the event.

Fresh off a close five-round decision win over Amanda Ribas, Namajunas recently snapped a two-fight losing streak, while securing her first career win at 125 lb. Ribas was credited with four takedowns against Namajunas, but finished with just 98 seconds of control time, as Namajunas did a good job of scrambling to her feet and reversing positions on the mat. Just keep in mind that similar to Namajunas, Ribas has spent most of her UFC career at 115 lb and is now just 1-3 in her last four fights at 125 lb. Prior to that win, Namajunas moved up from 115 lb to 125 lb for the first time in her career and lost a low-volume three-round decision to Manon Fiorot. Namajunas did mess up her pinky early in that fight if you’re looking for an excuse, but it wasn’t a great performance overall and she looked somewhat undersized at the new weight class. Sixteen months prior to that, she took part in one of the worst fights of all time, in a bizarrely low-volume five-round split-decision loss to Carla Esparza for the Strawweight belt. After 25 minutes of inaction, Namajunas finished ahead 37-30 in significant strikes and 38-30 in total strikes, while Esparza led in takedowns 2-1 and in control time 22 seconds to 10, and even those totals seem generous. All future staring contests will be judged on a scale of one to Namajunas/Esparza. Judges deservingly catch a lot of flack, but that was truly one of the hardest fights to judge based on how little happened. Namajunas later talked about how she considered retiring after that fight and just didn’t feel aggressive and didn’t want to hurt anybody at the time. However, leading up to that loss, Namajunas won back-to-back fights against Zhang Weili, with a R1 head kick KO followed by a close split decision. Just before that, Namajunas won a three-round split decision over Jessica Andrade, and five of Namajunas’s last six fights went the distance, with three of those being split (2-1).

Now 12-6 as a pro, Namajunas has two R1 KO/TKO wins, five submissions, and five decision victories. Her last two finishes both ended in first round knockouts and she hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017—although she also only has one knockout win since 2017, which was in 2021. On the other side of things, she’s been knocked out once herself (2019 R2 KO by slam against Andrade), submitted once (2014 R3 RNC against Esparza), and has four decision losses. After spending her entire career at 115 lb, Namajunas moved up to 125 lb for the first time in 2023, and it appears that’s where she’ll stay.

This will be the 10th five-round fight of Namajunas’ career (6-3), with seven of those coming with the Strawweight belt on the line (4-3). Her first five-round fight came in her 2014 UFC debut against Carla Esparza and Namajunas was submitted in the third round. Two fights later Namajunas took on Paige VanZant, who Namajunas submitted in the 5th round. Two years after that, Namajunas got her first title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and won the belt with a first round TKO. She then defended the belt in a rematch that went the full 25 minutes. After beating the former champ in back-to-back title fights, Namajunas was knocked out by Jessica Andrade via R2 slam in a 2019 title fight. Two fights later she knocked out Zhang Weili in 78 seconds to win the belt back, and followed it up with a split-decision win over Weili when they ran it back later in 2021. Namajunas then lost the belt to Esparza in her next fight, before taking a year and a half off and moving up to 125 lb. She won a decision over Amanda Ribas in her only five-round fight at 125 lb. Five of Namajunas’ first six five-round fights ended early, but her last three all went the distance.

Overall, Namajunas is very quick and precise, with great movement and footwork. She holds black belts in Taekwondo and Karate, while she’s also a BJJ brown belt who is dangerous both on the feet and the mat. Larger 30 ft cages seem to benefit her style as she likes to control the distance and float away from contact in open space. In her 15 UFC fights, she landed 20 of her 42 takedown attempts (47.6% accuracy), with at least one takedown landed in 10 of those fights. On the other side of things, her opponents got her down on 20 of their 49 attempts (59.2% defense). Only once in her UFC career has she landed more than two takedowns in a fight, which was when she took Paige VanZant down eight times in a 2015 five-round match. Six of her last seven opponents to attempt a takedown against her were successful in landing at least one and she was taken down multiple times in three of her last four fights. We typically don’t see a ton of striking volume in her matches, and Namajunas only averages 3.69 SSL/min and 3.51 SSA/min. Even in her five fights that made it to the fifth round, only once did Namajunas top 93 significant strikes landed, which was when she landed a career high 105 significant strikes in her first title defense back in 2018. Namajunas trains in Colorado with Trevor Wittman and Pat Barry, so she’ll get to fight in front of her home crowd.

Tracy Cortez

6th UFC Fight (5-0)

Cortez was only announced as the replacement in this matchup 18 days out, but she had been preparing to fight Miranda Maverick on July 20th, so she was already in camp. Cortez has only competed once in the last 26 months, which was in a September 2023 decision win over Jasmine Jasudavicius. That was the first time in the UFC that Cortez didn’t complete a takedown and also the only time she didn’t finish with multiple takedown attempts. In fairness, she was going against a larger wrestler and showed the ability to win the fight on the feet, as she outlanded Jasudavicius 103-77 in significant strikes and 116-95 in total strikes. Cortez didn’t even attempt a takedown until the third round, when she missed on her only attempt. Meanwhile, Jasudavicius was able to take Cortez down twice on 10 attempts. Following that win, Cortez got injured in some sort of dune buggy accident that forced her to sit out for a while and also suffered injuries in late 2022 and 2021 that forced her to drop out of fights. Her second most recent fight was a May 2022 decision win over Melissa Gatto, which came 13 months after a split decision victory over Justine Kish in 2021. Cortez’s other two UFC fights also both went the distance, in a 2020 decision over Stephanie Egger and a 2019 win over Vanessa Melo. Cortez also won a decision on DWCS in 2019 over Mariya Agapova, following a split decision win over Erin Blanchfield with Invicta earlier that year. The last time Cortez finished anybody was in 2018 when she landed a second round ground and pound finish over a 1-0 opponent.

Now 11-1 as a pro, Cortez has one TKO victory (R2 2018), one submission win (R1 2018), and nine decision victories. The only time she’s ever lost was in a 2017 R2 guillotine in her pro debut. She responded by winning 11 straight since then, with her last seven fights all going the distance. After fighting her first seven pro fights at 125 lb, Cortez moved up to 135 lb for her first two UFC fights before dropping back down to 125 lb in 2021, where she’s stayed since.

This will be the 1st five-round fight of Cortez’s career, so we’ve yet to see what her cardio looks like beyond the third round.

Overall, Cortez is a powerful wrestler who generally relies on winning fights on the mat, but she was able to win a striking battle over a fellow wrestler in her last match. Between her five UFC fights and her DWCS appearance, Cortez landed 14 takedowns on 30 attempts (46.7% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 6 of their 24 attempts (75% defense). She typically relies on controlling her opponents on the mat to get her hand raised and isn’t much of a finishing threat. She also only averages 4.11 SSL/min and 2.79 SSA/min, but landed a career best 103 significant strikes in her last fight (6.87 SSL/min), after only landing 122 significant strikes in her previous three fights combined (2.71 SSL/min). She actually said going into her last fight that she had been really working on her striking and wanted to find a finish on the feet, and she wasn’t lying. She trains out of Fight Ready with a bunch of high-level UFC fighters, including current and former champions, so she’s got a good team around her as she steps into the toughest test of her career.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’5” with a 65” reach, but Cortez is two years younger than the 32-year-old Namajunas.

While these two share an identical height and reach, Cortez has competed at both 125 lb and 135 lb, while Namajunas only recently moved up from 115 lb to 125 lb. We’ve seen Cortez outwrestle grapplers like Stephanie Egger who have competed as high as 145 lb, and we expect Cortez to have the strength advantage on the ground. While Namajunas is a pretty good grappler, she only has a 59% takedown defense and was taken down multiple times in three of her last four fights, which is encouraging for Cortez’s chances of finding wrestling success. While Cortez was content with keeping her last fight standing, that made sense against a one-dimensional wrestler. It will be far more surprising if she doesn't look to wrestle more in this matchup. However, while Namajunas has been prone to getting taken down, she’s been tougher to control on the mat and generally does a good job of escaping or reversing positions. Just keep in mind, we’ve yet to see her face a true 125 lb wrestler like Cortez.

Namajunas should have the home crowd behind her, while Cortez only had two and a half weeks’ notice to prepare for the first five-round fight of her career, which will be taking place at altitude in Denver. The larger cage should also benefit Namajunas, as it will leave her with more room to evade the takedown attempts of Cortez. And while Cortez’s striking looked improved in her last match, she still absorbed a decent amount of damage and ate a few head kicks that are concerning in this matchup against an opponent in Namajunas who landed a head kick KO against Zhang Weili not all that long ago. Namajunas will have the advantage on the feet and has shown at multiple points that she has the cardio to go five rounds, while Cortez has never been past round three. So Namajunas has a lot going for her if she can stay off her back, but Cortez has a clear path to pulling off the upset if she can take Namajunas down and control her. That makes it harder to pick a winner in this matchup, but we do like it to go the distance as long as Cortez doesn’t completely gas out or eat a flush head kick. We have no interest in laying the chalk on Namajunas and if we’re taking a side it’s the plus money on Cortez.

Our favorite bet here is “Tracy Cortez DEC” at +270.

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DFS Implications:

Namajunas averaged 98 DraftKings points in her 10 UFC wins and if we remove her two three-round decisions, that total jumps to 107 points. However, she hasn’t topped 105 points since 2017 and in her three five-round decision wins she scored 105, 101, and 79 DraftKings points. She also took part in one of the worst fights of all time when she donated her Strawweight belt to Carla Esparza and only scored 20 DraftKings points in the five-round decision loss. Namajunas is just 1-1 since moving up from 115 lb to 125 lb last year, and that win came against an opponent in Ribas who has also spent most of her career at 115 lb. So this will be the first real test for Namajunas against a 125 lb wrestler and it’s possible she gets overpowered and controlled on the mat for periods of time. That just adds further concern to her already shaky scoring ceiling and at her high salary there’s a decent chance she gets priced out of winning tournament lineups even in a win. That lowers our interest in playing her in tournaments, but in a fight that we’re expecting to run long she should have a fairly safe floor, so she makes sense in low-risk and smaller field contests. The odds imply Namajunas has a 67% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

Cortez has averaged 85 DraftKings points in five Octagon appearances, all of which ended in three-round decision wins. She was preparing to face Miranda Maverick in a three-round fight next week, before she got the call for this main event spot on 18 days’ notice. So she hasn’t had a ton of time to prepare for the first five-round fight of her career, but she’s shown the ability to go three hard rounds on many, many occasions. Her wrestling-heavy style is a great fit for the DraftKings scoring system, but tends to score worse on FanDuel. She hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat, which has capped her ceiling to this point in three round fights, but if she can keep up her normal pace for five-rounds then she’ll have massive scoring potential. Working against her, Namajunas is very elusive and only averages 3.51 SSA/min, but has been prone to getting taken down and only owns a 59% takedown defense. Whether or not Cortez can control Namajunas on the mat remains to be seen but she’s the first true 125 lb wrestler that Namajunas has ever encountered. And at Cortez’s cheap price tag, she doesn’t need to put up a huge score to end up in winning lineups. In fact, there’s a chance she could even be useful in a decision loss if we get a slate where very few other underdogs win. There are still questions surrounding how Cortez’s cardio will look in the championship rounds in a fight that takes place at elevation, and also how she’ll handle the pressure of her first main event in a step up in competition, but she’s definitely our preferred play in this matchup. The odds imply Cortez has a 33% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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