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Fighter Notes:
Fight #14
Bolaji Oki
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Oki is coming off a low-volume split-decision win in his UFC debut against Timmy Cuamba, who was also making his debut and stepped into the fight up a weight class on a few days’ notice and just a week after another fight. So it was basically the hardest position you can be in for Cuamba, but Oki was still unable to find a finish or even really separate himself a whole lot on the scorecards, with one judge scoring the fight for Cuamba. However, Oki did finish ahead 60-33 in significant strikes, while also stuffing five of Cuamba’s six takedown attempts and landing his only attempt. Just before that, Oki landed a first round knockout win on DWCS, where he pulled off the upset against a celebrated Muay Thai striker and kickboxer in Dylan Salvador. Oki hurt Salvador with a body shot and then pushed him back against the fence and unloaded on him with a lengthy combination until the fight was stopped. After losing a decision in his 2018 pro debut, Oki has now rattled off nine straight wins with six of his last eight fights ending early.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Oki has five KO/TKO wins, one submission, and three decision victories. His last three knockouts all ended in round one, while he also has one in round two and another in round three. His lone submission victory was a 2021 first round guillotine. The only loss of his career was a decision in his 2018 pro debut. He has faced some pretty suspect competition in the past, and he still needs to prove he can be an effective finishing threat at the UFC level.
Overall, Oki is a powerful but patient striker who relies mostly on his boxing but can wrestle a little when he needs to. He throws nasty body shots and stitches combinations together well. He has fast, heavy hands and has also been really durable. He’s really strong and has shown a solid takedown defense on the regional scene, although there are definitely still a lot of holes in his ground game. We’ve also seen him slow down some in the third round, although his fights rarely last that long. He wasn’t especially impressive in his UFC debut, but it will be interesting to see what improvements he’s made coming into his second fight with the organization.
Chris Duncan
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Duncan recently had a four-fight winning streak snapped in a quick first round submission loss to an aggressive brawler in Manuel Torres. Duncan actually hurt Torres in the opening seconds of the fight but appeared dead set on wrestling and immediately looked for a takedown after that. While he was able to land one of his three attempts, he also got taken down twice himself in the back and forth grappling exchange and then had his back taken and a rear-naked choke locked in. Prior to that, Duncan has won a pair of slower paced decisions in his first two UFC appearances, after he threw down in a pair of slobberknockers on DWCS (1-1). His last win came against a power puncher in Yanal Ashmoz, who Duncan was able to take down twice on four attempts, while also finishing ahead 85-35 in significant strikes. In fairness to Ashmoz, he broke his wrist in the first round and was left extremely compromised for the remainder of the match. Just before that, Duncan won a wrestling-heavy decision in his UFC debut against Omar Morales, where Duncan landed 5 of his 14 takedown attempts and finished with six and a half minutes of control time. That fight looked very different from Duncan’s two appearances on DWCS. In his first trip on DWCS, Duncan got knocked out early in round two by Viacheslav Borshchev in October 2021. He then went and won a decision on the England regional scene, before returning to DWCS in August 2022. Duncan nearly got finished for a second time on the show, but was narrowly able to survive and land a knockout of his own against Charlie Campbell, who is now 2-0 in the UFC.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Duncan has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and three decision victories. His lone submission win came via R2 guillotine in his 2018 pro debut, while his last seven finishes all ended in knockouts. He’s been finished in both of his losses, with a second round KO against Viacheslav Borshchev on DWCS and a first round submission in his last fight. Duncan moved up to 170 lb for his fight in between his two DWCS appearances and also has a couple of 160 lb Catchweight matches, but the rest of his career has been spent at 155 lb.
Overall, Duncan seems to be evolving from a brawling striker to more of a well-rounded tactician. He’s from Scotland but he trains at American Top Team and has the luxury of working with guys like Grant Dawson and Dustin Poirier on a regular basis, so it makes sense that he’s rounding out his skillset. Between his two DWCS appearances and his three UFC fights, Duncan landed 10 of his 26 takedown attempts (38.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down twice on three attempts (33.3% defense). Duncan looked very hittable in his two DWCS fights, but has done a much better job of avoiding damage in his last few matches and has yet to absorb more than 47 significant strikes in a UFC fight. He’s facing another dangerous striker here as he looks to bounce back from his first UFC loss.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10”, but Oki will have a 2” reach advantage and is three years younger than the 31-year-old Duncan.
This is an interesting one to break down because we’ve seen Duncan take part in some wild brawls, but not so much lately. He’s been looking to wrestle a lot more since joining the UFC, while also being more defensively sound on the feet. And while Oki is a powerful striker who possesses the ability to put together heavy combinations of strikes, he can also be overly patient at times, as we saw in his recent UFC debut. That leaves this fight with a decent amount of bust potential, with either a slower paced striking battle or Duncan grinding out a decision on the mat in play. However, they both have decent power, especially Oki, who also throws nasty rips to the body. If the fight ends early it will likely be from an Oki knockout, but we like the chances of it ending in a close decision that will likely come down to how much wrestling success Duncan can find. Oki’s takedown defense has been pretty solid to this point, but it also hasn’t been tested by anyone decent, making it harder to truly evaluate how good it is. Duncan isn’t an elite wrestler by any means, but he has shown the ability to get fights to the mat in the UFC, which at least leaves him with a path to victory. However, Oki has more ways to win the fight with his finishing upside, so it makes sense that he’s the favorite and from a pure pick’em perspective he’s the side we’ll go with.
Our favorite bet here is “Oki/Duncan FGTD” at +140.
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DFS Implications:
Oki is a striker who only scored 62 DraftKings points in a decision win in his recent UFC debut and looks entirely reliant on landing well timed finishes to score well. He generally doesn’t look to wrestle a ton and can be overly patient on the feet, but also has the ability to stitch together dangerous boxing combinations. While we shouldn’t expect him to routinely put up big striking totals over the course of 15 minutes, he can land enough volume in a short time to score really well when he can pair that with a finish. That was evident on DWCS where he landed a first round knockout that would have been good for 113 DraftKings points and 131 points on FanDuel. He’ll have no shot at returning value with a decision win here and even a later finish may not be enough on DraftKings at his high salary. Coming off a low scoring win and with the line moving against him, he should end up being low owned, which is really the best thing he has going for him in tournaments. And we’ve seen Duncan rocked at multiple points in the past, so Oki will have a shot at landing the knockout he needs to score well. The odds imply Oki has a 63% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Duncan has really dialed back his aggression since joining the UFC and has also been looking to wrestle a lot more. That makes it tougher to use his older performances as a predictive metric for future outcomes. We saw a pair of wild brawls from him on DWCS, but both of his UFC wins were slower paced tactical battles where he worked his way to two decision wins with a combination of striking and wrestling. He only scored 76 and 90 DraftKings points respectively in those victories and then got submitted in the first round of his last fight as he once again tried to wrestle. So he’s yet to show much of a scoring ceiling in DFS, while his floor also hasn’t been there. Working in his favor is his cheap salary and he may not need a huge score to serve as a value play. If he can find consistent wrestling success in a decision win, that could still be enough to sneak into winning DraftKings lineups, although he looks far more reliant on a finish on FanDuel. Oki has looked durable, powerful, and not especially easy to take down, so it’s definitely not a great matchup for Duncan. However, Oki is also very unproven and maybe his wrestling is worse than we release, which will be the hope if you play Duncan. While the oddsmakers are expecting this fight to end early, we think there’s a good chance it ends in a lower scoring decision. The odds imply Duncan has a 37% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #13
Jacqueline Cavalcanti
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Cavalcanti stepped into this matchup on just over two weeks’ notice and only five weeks after she last competed.
Cavalcanti is fresh off a decision win over Josiane Nunes and is getting right back to work after she had a year layoff between her first two UFC fights. She outlanded Nunes 91-52 in the pure striking battle, yet one judge hilariously scored the fight 30-27 in Nunes’ favor, while another had it 30-27 for Cavalcanti. That’s a good summary of the current state of judging, but Cavalcanti clearly won the fight with ease as she controlled the action from range and nearly doubled Nunes up in strikes. That came a year after Cavalcanti won a dominant decision win in her UFC debut against Zarah Fairn, where Cavalcanti finished ahead 127-39 in striking. She failed to land her only takedown attempt, but was able to stuff both of Fairn’s attempts. Not only was that Cavalcanti first UFC fight, she also took it on short notice and was traveling into enemy territory, making the dominant performance all the more impressive. Prior to that, Cavalcanti won a five-round decision for the LFA Bantamweight belt, after landing a pair of knockouts. The most recent of those finishes was also at 135 lb, but the previous one was at 145 lb. Cavalcanti took on a much smaller opponent in that match, who only weighed in at 137 lb, in a fight where you wonder how it even got sanctioned with such a weight difference. Just before that, Cavalcanti suffered the only loss of her career in a 2022 split decision in a PFL fight that took place all the way up at 155 lb. That came just after Cavalcanti won a 2021 decision at 145 lb over Nora Cornolle, who was making her pro debut. Three years before that win, Cavalcanti made her pro debut on the Portugal regional scene in a 2018 R1 knockout victory against an opponent fighting for the first and only time. So while Cavalcanti turned pro in 2018, all but one of her fights have occurred in the last three years.
Still just 7-1 as a pro, Cavalcanti has three wins by KO/TKO and four decision victories. Two of her finishes ended in round one, with the other coming in round two. Her only loss was a split decision at 155 lb and she’s never been finished in her brief career. Cavalcanti has competed anywhere from 135 lb to 155 lb. Her UFC debut was at a 140 lb Catchweight, before she cut down to 135 lb for her last fight.
Overall, Cavalcanti is a solid striker, but doesn't add much in terms of grappling. She’s got really good size and uses it well with a combination of straight shots and kicks and she’s shown the ability to put up big striking numbers and has pretty decent power. She trains at Black House MMA in California with a lot of other high-level fighters, so she has a good team around her. She’s also only 27 years old and should be improving all the time, although we just saw her a month ago so it’s unlikely much has changed since then.
Nora Cornolle
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Cornolle was originally scheduled to fight Germaine de Randamie here, but De Randamie dropped out and Cavalcanti was announced as the replacement a little over two weeks out.
Cornolle is coming off a second round TKO win over Melissa Mullins, who spent the fight trying to get Cornolle down. Mullins only landed one of her four takedown attempts, and got reversed on the mat when she did get Cornolle down. After fighting with her back on the cage for most of the fight, Cornolle finished Mullins midway through round two with a series of kicks and knees to the body, finishing ahead 36-11 in significant strikes and 60-13 in total strikes. Prior to that, Cornolle won a controversial decision in her UFC debut, where she got taken down five times and controlled for nearly nine minutes by a striker in Joselyne Edwards, who even looked close to locking up a rear-naked choke in the third round. Cornolle did finish ahead in significant strikes 40-18 and in total strikes 85-75, in addition to notching three reversals, but failed to attempt any takedowns of her own and only had two minutes of control time. It seemed like the decision had more to do with the fact that she was fighting in front of her home French crowd than anything she did in the fight and the fact that two judges scored it 30-27 in her favor is utter insanity. In the second round, both ladies landed four significant strikes, while Edwards led in total strikes 31-15, in takedowns 3-0, and in control time 2:47-0:46. Two of the judges still scored that round for Cornolle. Before she joined the UFC, Cornolle had finished six straight opponents on the regional scene, after losing a decision in her July 2021 pro debut to Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Her last five finishes all ended by TKO, but she had been facing a ton of suspect competition before joining the UFC. Her last early win on the regional scene resulted from her opponent suffering a freak knee injury before much could happen in the match. Prior to that, Cornolle took on an opponent making her pro debut and easily finished her in round one with ground and pound after flattening her out on the mat following a 50/50 position. Leading up to that win, she landed a pair of second round TKOs via ground and pound.
Still just 8-1 as a pro, Cornolle has six wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and one decision victory. Her only loss was a decision in her 2021 pro debut. Just keep in mind, she was facing a really low level of competition in a lot of her wins before joining the UFC. Cornolle turned pro at 145 lb, before dropping down to 135 lb in her second pro fight. She’s also had a couple of 139 and 142 lb Catchweight matches.
Overall, Cornolle is a solid striker with a Muay Thai background, who will also look to take opponents down and finish them on the mat with ground and pound. She’s very big and physical and does a good job of landing elbows and knees out of the clinch. Despite already being 34 years old, she’s still very early in her MMA career after only turning pro in July 2021, so we should expect to see some continued growing pains from her as she begins facing more legitimate competition. That was evident in her UFC debut where she showed absolutely terrible defensive wrestling, getting taken down five times on eight attempts by a striker in Joselyne Edwards who has a history of getting dominated on the mat herself. Cornolle missed weight by 2.5 lb for her last fight, so she’ll be someone to monitor closely during weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Cavalcanti will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while also being seven years younger than the 34-year-old Cornolle.
This will be a rematch of a 2021 fight that Cavalcanti won by decision. In fairness, that was Cornolle’s pro debut, so we shouldn’t read too much into it. However, Cavalcanti was able to knock Cornolle down in the opening minute, took her down twice, and outlanded her on the feet. Cornolle has definitely made a lot of improvements since then, but still struggles with being taken down and controlled. Both of these two are pretty talented strikers, but Cornolle does a better job of mixing in elbows and knees out of the clinch, leaving her with a little more finishing upside, while Cavalcanti has won three straight decisions. Cavalcanti didn’t have much time to prepare for this fight, although since it’s a rematch they also are already familiar with one another and Cavalcanti should be in good shape after fighting just a month ago. Cutting weight twice in five weeks is something of a red flag, which could slightly boost Cornolle’s finishing potential. However, Cavalcanti is a really talented striker and barring another questionable French decision, we like her chances of outlanding her way to victory on the scorecards. However, so does everyone else and her decision line is pretty gross, so we don’t hate the idea of just taking a dart throw on Cornolle and hoping for some hometown cooking on the scorecards like the last time she fought in Paris.
Our favorite bet here is “Nora Cornolle DEC” at +390.
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DFS Implications:
Cavalcanti is a talented striker with the ability to put up big striking totals, but doesn’t add much in the way of grappling. She landed 126 significant strikes in her short notice UFC debut, scoring 81 DraftKings points in the process, but then only landed 91 significant strikes in her recent decision win over Josiane Nunes and only scored 66 points. So she really hasn’t shown much in the way of scoring potential and will need an unlikely finish here to return value at her expensive price tag. She’s also traveling into enemy territory and we’ve seen some really biased French judging in the past, including the last time Cornolle fought there. So even if Cavalcanti outstrikes Cornolle, she could still get robbed on the scorecards. Cornolle has struggled with being taken down and controlled so maybe Cavalcanti will mix in a few takedowns, but wrestling isn’t normally a big part of her gameplan. That leaves her as nothing more than a hail mary KO or bust play in DFS, but she will be low owned. The odds imply Cavalcanti has a 65% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Cornolle was fortunate to walk away with a decision win in her UFC debut, as she was taken down five times and controlled for almost nine minutes, and also nearly submitted in the third round. While she was able to score 74 DraftKings points in that “win” she was only able to do that with the help of three reversals, which is extremely flukey. And while Cornolle showed the ability to land finishes on the mat against low-level opponents on the regional scene, she looks like a complete liability on her back and doesn't even have a clue when it comes to defending takedowns. That will make it really hard for her to win fights at the UFC level against grapplers, although she’s facing a striker here. She was able to land a TKO in her last fight that returned 105 DraftKings points, but that came against another low-level opponent and it would be surprising to see Cornolle finish Cavalcanti. It’s possible that we’ll see enough striking volume for Cornolle to serve as a value play in a decision win at her cheap price tag, and we’ve already seen her steal one decision in front of her home French crowd. The line has also moved heavily in Cavalcanti’s favor, which could help to keep Cornolle’s ownership lower, thus slightly raising her tournament appeal. We’re still expecting this fight to end in a lower scoring decision, but we can at least see ways for Cornolle to end up in winning lineups if she pulls off the upset and she’s our preferred DFS play in this matchup, even though we’re expecting her to lose a decision. The odds imply Cornolle has a 35% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Daniel Barez
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)It’s been 14 months since Barez was submitted in the first round of his UFC debut against Jafel Filho. Barez nearly knocked Filho out in a high-paced brawl, but then got taken down by Filho and easily submitted while putting up very little resistance. That snapped a four-fight winning streak and Barez’s last five fights all ended in under three and a half minutes. Barez originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2021, but lost a close split decision to Carlos Hernandez and then returned to the Mexican regional scene, where he proceeded to land four straight first round finishes against some very dubious competition who entered with records of 10-9-1, 7-9, 6-9, and 14-12. Barez’s last 11 fights all ended in either the first round (6-1) or with the judges (3-1), with his last three decisions all being split.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Barez has seven wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. His last six and 9 of his 13 finishes came in round one, while he also had three second round finishes and one in round three earlier in his career. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted three times, and has three decision losses. One of his submission losses was against Manel Kape back in 2014. Barez has won 10 of his last 12 fights going back to 2016.
Overall, Barez is an aggressive fighter who likes to get in the face of his opponents and look for finishes both on the feet and the mat. He’s got lightning quick hands and does a good job sticking opponents with his stiff jab and mixing in viscous body shots. However, that explosiveness does appear to wear on his gas tank as fights go on and he looks less dangerous in the later stages. While he didn’t attempt any takedowns in his UFC debut, he landed 5 of his 16 attempts against Carlos Hernandez on DWCS (31.3% accuracy), while stuffing all eight of Hernandez’s attempts. He got taken down once on four attempts in his last fight so overall he’s successfully defended 11 of the 12 attempts against him (91.7% defense). Barez is from Spain but trains at Entram Gym in Mexico and has a good team around him. His background is in kickboxing but he’s a decent grappler as well. He’s already 35 years old, so he got a late start in the UFC, especially at Flyweight, and it doesn’t help that he’s now coming off a long layoff.
Victor Altamirano
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Altamirano got absolutely robbed in a split-decision loss in his last fight, where he took Felipe dos Santos down nine times and controlled him for five minutes, while also finishing ahead 40-37 in significant strikes. While he didn’t land a ton of damage with those takedowns, it’s not like Dos Santos did anything either and it really felt like the judges were penalizing Altamirano more than rewarding Dos Santos. That fight took place at high elevation in Mexico City, ironically where Altamirano spent the first nine years of his life, but the elevation combined with the high wrestling pace took its toll on Altamirano’s cardio and he slowed down late in the fight. That was Altamirano’s second straight decision loss, after he got out wrestled by Tim Elliott just before that. Elliott was able to take Altamirano down six times on seven attempts with over 11 minutes of control time. Altamirano has gone the distance in six of his last seven fights (3-3), with the one exception being a 2022 R1 TKO win over Daniel da Silva, which barely even counts since the guy gets finished by everyone he fights. Prior to his recent two losses, Altamirano won a unanimous 29-28 decision win over a debuting Vinicius Salvador, after finishing Da Silva. Just before that, he lost a split decision in his February 2022 UFC debut against Carlos Hernandez, after winning a split decision on DWCS against Carlos Candelario. Other than his TKO win over Da Silva, Altamirano’s only other finish in his last 11 fights came in a weird situation in a 2020 second round submission, where he landed an illegal up kick and the ref paused the fight. When the ref reset the position Altamirano immediately wrapped up a triangle choke to land a finish in a fight he had been losing.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Altamirano has two wins by R1 TKO, four submissions, and six decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2019 R2 submission, while he also has three decision defeats. Ten of his last 11 fights made it to the second round, with eight of those going the distance.
Overall, Altamirano is a well rounded fighter who holds black belts in both jiu jitsu and Taekwondo, but doesn’t stand out as being especially dangerous anywhere. He often seems a little too comfortable working off his back in a closed guard, which has resulted in a lot of close decisions for him. While he does have four submissions on his record, three of those came in his first four pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0, and 1-1 and the last time he submitted anybody was in 2020. Between his five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 18 takedowns on 46 attempts (39.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down 14 times on 38 attempts (63.2% defense). He pushes a high pace when he’s not on his back and averages 4.55 SSL/min and 3.70 SSA/min, as he attacks his opponents with a combination of striking and grappling. After his loss to Tim Elliott he said he went and actually joined Elliott’s team at Next Generation MMA, so now they’re training partners and his wrestling looked improved in his last fight.
Fight Prediction:
Altamirano will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while also being two years younger than the 35-year-old Barez.
Barez is an incredibly talented striker who has also shown some offensive grappling, but his submission defense looked non-existent in his last fight, he’s a 35-year-old Flyweight, and now he hasn’t competed in 14 months. That makes it hard to know what to do with him as he takes on a durable opponent in Altamirano who’s never been knocked out. It looks like Barez could compete with anyone on the feet, but Altamirano is generally looking to get fights to the ground. While Altamirano isn’t a jiu jitsu wizard, he’s still a BJJ black belt with four submission wins on his record. Barez’s takedown defense has actually been pretty good to this point, it’s just when he gets on the mat that he’s struggled, with three submission losses on his record. Both of these guys have a history of split decisions, with Barez’s last three decisions being split and four of Altamirano’s last seven. This has all the makings of another split decision here if it hits the scorecards, as we expect Barez to dominate the striking exchanges early on, but then slow down as the fight goes on and likely struggle on the ground. If it ends early, look for it to come from either a Barez knockout or an Altamirano submission. However, the betting markets are expecting it to go the distance about two-thirds of the time and if that comes to fruition then the judges will be forced to weigh the striking of Barez with the grappling of Altamirano. Those types of decisions have trended towards the striker in recent years and Altamirano couldn’t even win a decision in front of his home crowd last time, despite landing nine takedowns. While that may be somewhat anecdotal to even bring up and he likely learned that he needs to be busier on the mat after the loss, it’s hard not to consider in a fight where he’ll need to lean on his grappling to win. If you’re inclined to bet Altamirano, you’re better off doing it live after the first round, as that’s when Barez is the strongest. Clearly the field didn’t take that approach as the line has flipped from Altamirano being a slight underdog to the favorite. There’s a high chance you can now bet Barez as a dog preflop and then grab Altamirano live during or after the first round at plus money to lock in a profit. We also have no problem just riding it out with Barez and hoping he doesn’t spend much time getting controlled on the ground, as we’re expecting him to look like a big favorite early on. His takedown defense is good enough that we think he can avoid losing two rounds on the ground and he’ll have a shot at landing a knockout anytime this fight is standing. So give us Barez by either KO or decision, but things could get greasy down the stretch.
Our favorite bet here is “Daniel Barez ML” at +110.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Barez’s aggressive fighting style should make for pace up matchups that tend to score well in DFS, and 13 of his 16 career wins have come early. He nearly landed a first round knockout in his last fight as he knocked down Jafel Filho early in that match, but then showed a terrible submission defense as soon as he got taken down and quickly tapped. Barez has crisp striking and decent wrestling and he attempted a ridiculous 16 takedowns in his DWCS fight, before going on to finish his next four opponents in the first round. So the scoring upside is certainly there, he just needs to show that he can win fights against UFC caliber opponents and avoid getting submitted when fights hit the mat. It’s not an ideal matchup for Barez, as Altamirano is a BJJ black belt who’s never been knocked out and who landed nine takedowns in his last fight. However, Altamirano hasn’t looked all that dangerous on the ground and is less of a submission threat than Barez’s last opponent. And while Barez’s submission defense has been terrible, his takedown defense has actually been pretty good. If he can stay off his back he’ll have a decent shot at landing a knockout or at least winning a decision. The line flipped from him being the favorite to a slight underdog, so he’s now overpriced on DraftKings, which should keep his ownership down. That adds to his tournament appeal in this pace up matchup. The odds imply Barez has a 44% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Altamirano got completely robbed of a decision win in his last fight, where he finished ahead in takedowns 9-0 AND in significant strikes 40-37. He would have scored 102 DraftKings points if the split decision had gone his way, after scoring 88 points in his previous decision victory. He also put up a slate-breaking 134 points in a first round TKO win over Daniel da Silva, but get in line. He’s just 1-3 with the judges in the UFC and has a history of fighting to split decisions. He’ll also be outgunned on the feet here as he takes on a very dangerous striker in Barez. That leaves Altamirano with a shaky scoring floor, but Barez has been incredibly prone to being submitted and pushes a crazy pace. That creates a ton of scoring potential for whoever wins here and it’s definitely a fight we’re looking to target. Altamirano will have a shot at locking up a submission and even in a decision win he could easily score enough to return value at his cheap DraftKings price tag. However, after the line flipped in his favor, he’ll also be higher owned, which slightly detracts from his tournament appeal. The odds imply Altamirano has a 56% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Ailin Perez
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Perez has won three straight wrestling-heavy decisions since getting submitted in the second round of her 2022 UFC debut. The most prevent of those came against a one-dimensional striker in Joselyne Edwards, in a fight where we saw a ridiculous six combined reversals (four from Edwards and two from Perez). Perez was able to take Edwards down six times on 11 attempts and finished ahead 42-27 in significant strikes, although Edwards led 130-68 in total strikes and also somehow finished ahead 5:11-4:18 in control time. Perez also knocked Edwards down in the second round. Prior to that, nearly blew a big lead against Lucie Pudilova, who looked close to submitting Perez in the third round after getting dominated on the mat in each of the first two rounds. That came after Perez put on an absolutely dominant performance as she mauled Ashlee Evans-Smith for three rounds on her way to winning a 30-25 decision. Perez took Evans-Smith down 10 times with eleven and half minutes of control time, while finishing ahead in significant strikes 60-12 and in total strikes 127-13. It is worth pointing out that the 36-year-old Evans-Smith hadn’t competed in 32 months before that and was coming off spine surgery, so it was an absolute dream matchup for Perez. Just before that, Perez got submitted in the second round of her UFC debut against a dangerous grappler in Stephanie Egger. That fight notably took place at 145 lb, before Perez dropped back down to 135 lb following the loss. Egger is the only decent grappler that Perez has ever faced, and Perez’s pre-UFC career was basically her bullying low-level opponents with ground and pound. While Perez’s last three fights all went the distance, her previous five all ended early.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Perez has four wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. All five of her finishes ended in the first two rounds, with three of those ending in round one. The first finish of her career ended in a submission, but the last four all came via KO/TKO. Just keep in mind, she has faced a lot of dubious competition throughout her career and only one of her eight pre-UFC wins came against an opponent with a winning record. Other than the submission loss in her UFC debut, her only other defeat came by DQ for illegal knees in a 2021 fight against Tamires Vidal. Perez made her pro debut at 125 lb in 2018, but moved up to 135 lb for her second pro appearance and has bounced between 135 lb and 145 lb since then. However, she now appears settled in at 135 lb.
Overall, Perez is a wrestler who has shown the ability to dominate low-level opponents on the mat and exert heavy top pressure while raining down ground and pound. However, she’s still very green and largely relies on overpowering her opponents with her physicality. While that works on the regional scene and against the bottom of the food chain in the UFC, she’ll need to make a lot of improvements if she ever wants to make any noise in the UFC. She’s definitely not the brightest and we’ve seen her make several terrible decisions in the past, while she also doesn’t have a very diverse skill set. However, when given the right matchup she’s shown the ability to bully opponents on the mat and often end fights early with ground and pound. However, she doesn't appear to offer much in terms of submissions and she’s just a BJJ blue belt. Between her four UFC fights, she landed 19 of her 37 takedown attempts (51.4% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 2 of their 8 attempts (75% defense). The UFC must like her, as they continue to give her opponents who have terrible defensive wrestling.
UPDATE: Perez missed weight by a half pound and looked terrible on the scale!
Daria Zhelezniakova
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Zhelezniakova is coming off a questionable low-volume decision win in her UFC debut against Montserrat Rendon, who took Zhelezniakova down three times and controlled her for five and a half minutes, while Zhelezniakova finished ahead 57-25 in significant strikes. Rendon also busted Zhelezniakova’s face up, so it’s not like she didn’t do any damage. Prior to joining the UFC, Zhelezniakova landed a first round TKO against a 42-year-old opponent who then dropped down a weight class after the loss. Just before that, Zhelezniakova was the one who was finished in a R1 ground and pound TKO against Melissa Mullins, who’s since joined the UFC. Looking back one fight further, Zhelezniakova won a decision over a terrible Liana Jojua, who had just been cut from the UFC and was moving up a weight class. Jojua put up one of the most pathetic efforts you’ll ever see from a fighter and fought like a kid who needed a nap.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Zhelezniakova has five wins by TKO and four decision victories. She has two first round finishes and three in round two. Her only loss also ended in a R1 TKO. One of her four decision wins came in a two-round fight and she’s only seen the third round three times in her career.
Overall, Zhelezniakova is a Russian boxer with good size, as she stands 5’9”. She’s got decent striking, but hasn’t shown much in the way of grappling, although she can hold top position and land ground and pound when given the opportunity. Her takedown defense has been poor and she’s looked bad off her back. So anyone that can wrestle should be looking to take her down and we expect her to struggle in that area. She’s still only 28 years old, and with only 10 pro fights you would assume she’s still working on evolving her skill set, but she’ll need to show an improved ground game before we can trust her to do much in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Zhelezniakova will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This is a straight up wrestler versus striker matchup and Zhelezniakova will be desperately trying to keep it standing, while Perez will do everything she can to get it to the mat. Zhelezniakova’s defensive wrestling has been bad, which is why she’s such a large underdog and we expect Perez to be able to land takedowns with relative ease—at least early on in the fight. We have seen Perez slow down at times in the third round and it looks like she had a really tough weight cut for this fight, which could further limit her gas tank. That makes it a little tougher to completely trust her in this favorable stylistic matchup, but if she’s just laying on top for the whole fight it may not require all that much energy. We’ve also seen Zhelezniakova finished with ground and pound in the past, which is how Perez has been able to finish fights in the past, although all of her UFC wins went the distance. Nevertheless, she has the potential to get Zhelezniakova out of there through that avenue. Zhelezniakova has dangerous enough striking that it’s possible she knocks Perez out as well, especially if Perez gasses out. However, the fight is expected to go the distance about two-thirds of the time and Perez is very likely to win at least the first two rounds on the ground, even if she does slow down late. So Perez will be the pick and we’ll say she wins a decision, with a slight chance for a ground and pound finish in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Perez/Zhelezniakova Fight Ends in KO” at +290.
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DFS Implications:
Perez has averaged 112 DraftKings points in her three UFC wins, all of which ended in wrestling-heavy decisions. She went nuclear in the first of those victories, scoring 138 DraftKings points and 116 points on FanDuel on the back of 10 takedowns landed and eleven and a half minutes of control time. She was then on her way to putting up another big score in her next victory as she dominated the first two rounds on the ground. However, she fell apart in round three and ended up being the one on her back down down the stretch, nearly even getting submitted. She only scored 88 DraftKings and 57 points on FanDuel in that win and it was just a reminder how green she is and she’s not someone you can fully trust. However, she bounced back by scoring 110 DraftKings points and 93 points on FanDuel in her last victory, although that was bolstered on DraftKings by two reversals. She looked terrible on the scale and missed weight by a half pound, which is somewhat concerning for her ability to have the cardio to dominate this fight for three straight rounds on the mat. It’s possible we get a repeat performance of the Pudilova where she’s looking great for two rounds and then gasses out and loses the third. However, all we can do is speculate there and maybe she’ll be fine. So it’s really more of a concern for her floor than her ceiling and this is a great matchup for Perez to find wrestling success. She’s yet to finish anybody in the UFC, but she did have five finishes before joining the organization, albeit against a lower level of competition. There’s a chance she can find a ground and pound finish here and that’s how Zhelezniakova lost her 2022 matchup against Melissa Mullins. And even if Perez can’t find a finish, she’ll still have a good shot at scoring well on DraftKings in a decision if she can avoid gassing out. She’ll be more reliant on either a finish or a huge takedown total to score well on FanDuel, making her not quite as good of a play over there, but definitely still in consideration. The odds imply Perez has a 68% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Zhelezniakova is a Russian Boxer who relies heavily on her striking to win fights and only scored 56 DraftKings points and 54 points on FanDuel in a highly-questionable low-volume decision win in her recent UFC debut. She doesn’t offer much in terms of wrestling, but had previously shown the ability to put up decent striking totals on the regional scene, at least when she wasn’t on her back or against the fence. However, we don’t see her landing enough strikes to score well in a decision here as she takes on a wrestler who will be looking to get her down and control her. That leaves Zhelezniakova as a KO or bust fighter in a bad stylistic matchup. Working in her favor, Perez looked terrible on the scale and it’s possible she could gas out and open an opportunity for Zhelezniakova to find a late finish. And while Zhelezniakova probably still wouldn’t score especially well in that scenario if she spends the first two rounds being controlled, at her cheap price tag it could still allow her to serve as a value play. That angle is pretty thin though and the most likely outcome is that Zhelezniakova loses a decision and scores terribly. The odds imply Zhelezniakova has a 32% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Taylor Lapilus
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Lapilus is coming off a unanimous 30-27 decision win over Cody Stamann, who he outlanded 100-59 in significant strikes and 107-64 in total strikes, while also stuffing five of Stamann’s six takedown attempts. Prior to that, Lapilus had a six-fight winning streak snapped in a wrestling-heavy decision loss against a dangerous grappler in Farid Basharat, who took Lapilus down on 5 of his 16 attempts and finished with seven minutes of control time. That came after Lapilus made his return to the UFC in front of his home Paris crowd. Lapilus squeaked out a close 29-28 decision win over a UFC newcomer in Caolan Loughran, after both of their matchups got shuffled midweek, leaving neither guy with much time to prepare for the other. Lapilus again spent much of the fight defending takedowns along the fence, but Loughran was only able to land 2 of his 11 takedown attempts. Lapilus originally went 3-1 with the UFC from 2015 to 2016, but then wasn’t re-signed despite his winning record. He won a decision in his 2015 UFC debut, and then landed a second round TKO, before losing a decision in his third fight. He bounced back with a decision win in 2016, but then left the UFC and tried his hand at boxing for one fight, where he won a 2017 decision. He returned to MMA after that and then spent the next six years on the regional scene working his way back to the big show. They actually decided to bring him back for the previous Paris card in 2022, but he was forced to withdraw due to hand injury and then didn’t compete for 17 months before returning against Loughran. That came after he won the vacant Ares FC Bantamweight belt in April 2022.
Now 20-4 as a pro, Lapilus has four wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and 10 decision victories. All six of his submission wins occurred in his first nine pro fights, from 2012 to 2014, while three of his four knockouts victories occurred in his last 10 matches. However, his last three and five of his last six fights went the distance and his only early win since 2019 was in 2022, outside of the UFC. He’s never been finished and all four of his losses went the distance. Lapilus started his career at 145 lb, but dropped down to 135 lb following his 2015 UFC debut.
Overall, Lapilus is a French striker with good quickness and movement, but he doesn’t have a ton of power and hasn’t shown much of an offensive ground game. However, he does have a solid takedown defense and a good get up game, even if he has been taken down at least once in each of his seven UFC fights. In his seven UFC fights, Lapilus landed two of his five takedown attempts (40% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 14 of their 65 attempts (78.5% defense). While most of his UFC fights have been lower volume affairs, he landed a career best 100 significant strikes in his last outing, despite all the time that Stamann spent looking to wrestle. Now he’s getting a step down in competition against a UFC retread.
Vince Morales
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Morales will be making his return to the UFC after he was cut following two straight decision losses in 2022. He bounced back from those losses with five straight wins on the regional scene, with four of those ending early. The most recent of those victories came just four weeks ago in a third round Peruvian Necktie submission over former UFC fighter Hunter Azure. Two of his other three most recent finishes also ended in later round chokes, in addition to a second round TKO win. Morales’ last UFC loss came in a low-volume decision against a tough opponent in Miles Johns, who took the fight on just over two weeks’ notice. That followed a loss to Jonathan Martinez, after Morales secured his only UFC finish in a first round knockout of Louis Smolka. Morales has been prone to getting his lead leg destroyed and was actually finished with leg kicks in the second round of a 2020 fight against Chris Gutierrez. That’s the only time that Morales was finished in the UFC and six of his eight UFC fights went the distance. Morales originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2018, but got submitted in the second round by Domingo Pilarte. He then took a fight in Bellator before getting the call up to make his UFC debut in a brutally tough spot against Song Yadong, who defeated Morales in a decision.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Morales has seven wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and four decision victories. He has one TKO loss, two by submission, and four decision defeats. Fifteen of his last 16 fights made it to the second round, with the one exception being a 2021 R1 KO win over Louis Smolka.
Overall, Morales is a decently well rounded fighter, who’s biggest issue has been defending leg kicks, although he doesn’t really stand out anywhere. His inability to defend calf kicks consistently leaves him compromised in fights, which makes it tougher for him to be competitive in those fights down the stretch. While Morales has a background in wrestling, he failed to even attempt a takedown in seven of his eight UFC fights or his DWCS match. In the one fight where he actually looked to wrestle, he still only landed one of his four attempts (25% accuracy). On the flip side, he’s been taken down 10 times on 28 attempts (64.3% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Morales will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This fight was only announced a week and a half ago and Morales just fought four weeks ago, so there wasn’t much time for these two to prepare for one another. While Lapilus hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat, he’s a talented striker with good defensive wrestling and he appears fully equipped to handle an average talent like Morales. The big question is whether or not he can beat Morales’ lead leg up enough to potentially get him out of there late. While it’s unlikely, Lapilus did land 15 leg kicks in his last fight and does have that attack in his arsenal. That’s probably the only way this fight ends early and it’s definitely still a real long shot. So it seems pretty safe to say that Lapilus should cruise to a decision win in front of his home crowd here.
Our favorite bet here is “Taylor Lapilus R3 or DEC” at -180.
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DFS Implications:
Lapilus has averaged just 77 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with four of those ending in lower scoring decisions. His only UFC finish was all the way back in 2015 against a struggling opponent, where Lapilus scored 104 DraftKings points in a second round TKO. Lapilus only scored 72, 65, 61, and 82 DraftKings points in his last four decision wins, showing that he has almost no shot at returning value without a finish at his very high salary. He’s slightly more interesting on FanDuel, where striking is more valuable, but the only real reason to consider playing him on either site is his low ownership. With that said, Morales has been very prone to getting his lead leg destroyed, so even though Lapilus hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat, there is one potential path to him landing a late finish if he can rack up leg strikes early. This fight was also put together on short notice, which adds some additional volatility into the mix. Nevertheless, the most likely outcome (by a wide margin) is that Lapilus wins an average scoring decision and scores nowhere close to enough to end up in winning lineups. The odds imply Lapilus has a 75% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Morales is making his return to the UFC two years after being cut by the promotion. While he was able to win five straight fights with four finishes since he was cut, he’s 33 years old and we’d be surprised if he looked like a totally different fighter in his return. He still leaves his lead leg out there to be kicked and we expect that to continue to be a problem for him. He also hasn’t stood out as being great anywhere, even though he’s somewhat well rounded. He has a wrestling background but only landed one takedown in his eight UFC fights, as he relies heavily on his boxing. He also doesn’t throw a ton of volume, averaging 4.17 SSL/min. He returned scores of just 68 and 54 DraftKings points in his two decision wins, with his only usable performance coming in his lone early win with the organization, when he knocked out Louis Smolka in the first round and scored 111 points. Lapilus is a talented kickboxer with good defensive wrestling and is extremely difficult to score well against. It would be shocking if Morales stepped in on short notice and went into enemy territory and pulled off the upset against Lapilus, leaving us with little to no interest in playing Morales, despite his low projected ownership. The odds imply Morales has a 25% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Ludovit Klein
10th UFC Fight (6-2-1)Klein was originally scheduled to fight Nikolas Motta here, but Motta dropped out and Roberts was announced as the replacement three and a half weeks out.
Klein is just over three months removed from a unanimous 30-27 decision win over Thiago Moises, who he nearly finished at two different points in the fight with bad knockdowns in both the first and third rounds. Klein was also able to stuff all eight of Moises’ takedown attempts in the fight, in addition to landing his only attempt, while he also finished ahead 56-24 in significant strikes and 86-25 in total strikes. That followed a first round demolition of an absolutely terrible AJ Cunningham, who was making his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice. Klein completely filled up the stat sheet before the fight was mercifully stopped in the final 30 seconds of the opening round. Klein landed 60 significant strikes and a knockdown, while also completing two takedowns. That ties the most significant strikes he’s ever landed in a UFC fight, despite the fact that his other seven most recent fights all made it to the third round, with six of those going the distance. Just before finishing Cunningham as a massive favorite, Klein pulled off an upset decision win over Ignacio Bahamondes, which was Klein’s fourth straight fight to go the distance (3-0-1) after he moved up from 145 lb to 155 lb in 2022. Klein came in as a +190 underdog but took Bahamondes down three times and controlled him for six minutes, while also finishing ahead 56-43 in significant strikes. Prior to that, Klein was a -210 favorite but squeaked out a majority draw against Jai Herbert after Herbert was deducted a point in the third round for repeated, but debated low blows. That came just after Klein pulled off the upset as a +310 underdog in a decision win over Mason Jones. Klein’s first UFC fight at 155 lb came on short notice against Devonte Smith and once again Klein pulled off the upset as a +125 underdog. Looking back to the start of his UFC career, Klein won his 2020 debut in dramatic fashion with a first round head kick KO against a terrible Shane Young, but then lost a questionable decision to Michael Trizano in his next match. Klein was then shockingly submitted by Nate Landwehr, who had never submitted anybody in his career up to that point. Klein gassed out in that fight, and the weight cut down to 145 lb may have played a factor, as he then moved up to 155 lb, where he’s stayed since.
Now 22-4-1 as a pro, Klein has nine wins by KO/TKO, eight more by submission, and five decision victories. His last seven finishes all ended in knockouts, while all of his submission wins occurred earlier in his career, including six in his first six pro fights. Ten of his 17 finishes occurred in the first round and he generally is the most dangerous early on in fights. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2017), submitted twice (R1 2017 & R3 2021), and has one decision defeat. The vast majority of Klein’s career was spent down at 145 lb, although he missed weight by 4 lb for his 2020 short notice UFC debut, and later moved up to 155 lb in 2022.
Overall, Klein is a patient striker with a deadly head kick and he’ll also mix in wrestling. However, despite having eight submission wins on his record, he hasn’t looked very dangerous on the mat and has zero submission attempts in the UFC. In his nine UFC fights, he landed 12 of his 24 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 2 of their 20 attempts (90% defense). While Klein failed to land a takedown against four of his first five UFC opponents, we’ve seen him land at least one in each of his last four fights. His cardio has looked somewhat dubious at times, although it seems to have improved since he moved up to 155 lb. He also doesn’t handle adversity particularly well and likes to be the one dictating the action. He’s looking for a clean fight and is less effective when he’s the one being pressured. While he does have solid power with his striking, he generally doesn’t land much volume (outside of his fight against Cunningham), averaging just 3.93 SSL/min and 3.45 SSA/min. His only two UFC finishes were both against very low-level opponents, although he notably gets another very favorable matchup here.
Roosevelt Roberts
10th UFC Fight (4-4, NC)Roberts recently made his return to the UFC after getting cut in 2021 and then losing in the semi-finals on The Ultimate Fighter in 2023. The homecoming didn’t exactly go well as Roberts stepped into a nightmare matchup on less than a week’s notice and proceeded to get taken down and submitted in the first round by Mateusz Rebecki. Roberts originally joined the UFC in 2018 following a second round submission win on DWCS. He started out 4-1 in the UFC, with two submission wins and three fights that went the distance (2-1). However, things then began to go sideways for him, as he got submitted by Jim Miller in the first round, which is understandable. What’s less forgivable is that he then got dropped and immediately submitted by a terrible short notice debuter in Kevin Croom in just 31 seconds. While that loss was overturned to a No Contest when Croom tested positive for THC, we all know what happened. Roberts then got knocked out by Ignacio Bahamondes in the third round of his next UFC fight in 2021 before being cut from the organization. Returning to the regional scene, Roberts bounced back with a quick first round knockout victory followed by a decision win in May 2022. He went on The Ultimate Fighter in early 2023, where he landed another quick knockout in his first fight, before losing a close, boring decision to Austin Hubbard in his second match.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Roberts has four KO/TKO wins, five submissions, and three decision victories. He’s officially been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one decision loss, although he had another submission defeat that was overturned to a No Contest for an insignificant reason.
Overall, Roberts is a tall, lanky, low-level Lightweight who looks to attack his opponents with a combination of striking and submission attempts. He’s a BJJ brown belt and likes to look for guillotine chokes, but the last time he completed one was in his 2018 UFC debut. In his nine UFC fights, Roberts landed just 8 of his 27 takedown attempts (29.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 9 of their 19 attempts (52.6% defense). The last four opponents who tried to take him down were all successful, with the last three of those landing multiple takedowns. Roberts has never been a very high-volume striker and only averages 3.05 SSL/min, while he’s never landed more than 55 significant strikes in a fight. Dana White publicly said he was disappointed with Roberts’ last performance on TUF, so it’s interesting that they still brought him back, although they’ve yet to give him a full camp to prepare for a fight since his return.
Fight Prediction:
Roberts will have a 7” height advantage, but only a 1” reach advantage.
Roberts has been finished in his last four UFC fights and the early success he found with the organization against a series of low-level opponents is nothing more than a distant memory. He’s been prone to getting both rocked and submitted and seems to have no clue how to defend an armbar attempt. While he has good size for the Lightweight division, he doesn’t use it especially well and also doesn’t have the longest reach. He lacks any sort of defense both in striking and wrestling and his skinny frame doesn’t look very durable. Klein will hold advantages both on the feet and the mat and should be able to dictate the action here, which is when he’s been the most successful. While five of Klein’s last six fights went the distance, he has shown the ability to land knockouts against lower level opponents and Roberts definitely fits the bill. Roberts has been especially prone to being submitted and Klein has eight submission wins on his record, but all of those came early in his career and his last seven finishes all ended by knockout. Based on the matchup we can’t eliminate the possibility of a submission, but it’s more likely that Klein knocks Roberts out, most likely in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “Klein/Roberts Fight Ends in R1 KO” at +270.
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DFS Implications:
Klein has averaged 93 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, but has only topped 90 points twice. Four of his six UFC wins went the distance and even with two knockdowns and a takedown in his last decision victory, he still “only” scored 89 points. That’s the most points he’s ever scored in a fight that made it out of the first round, but he did put up a slate-breaking 135 points just before that in a perfectly timed late first round knockout win in a once in a lifetime dream matchup against AJ Cunningham. He also scored 104 points in his UFC debut in another great matchup that ended in a first round knockout victory. As the most expensive fighter on the slate, he’ll need another well timed finish here to return value, as he’s not a fighter that will generally put up huge striking totals and only averages 3.93 SSL/min. Working in his favor, he’s getting another great matchup as he takes on Roosevelt Roberts, who’s been finished in each of his last four UFC fights, with three of those ending in the first round. Roberts also had less than a month to prepare after Klein’s original opponent dropped out. That leaves Klein with a high chance of finding the finish he needs to score well, although he’ll also need to outscore the other high priced options to end up in the optimal. The odds imply Klein has an 87% chance to win, a 57% chance to land a finish, and a 28% chance it comes in round one.
Roberts averaged 83 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, with two of those ending in submissions and two going the distance. However, he hasn’t won a UFC fight since 2020 and all of his victories came against a lower level of competition. The UFC cut him in 2021 following three straight early losses and then he couldn’t make it past the semi-finals on The Ultimate Fighter. They gave him another shot anyways, only for him to get submitted in the first round in his last fight. Now he’s stepping in on somewhat short notice for another really tough matchup and Roberts is the biggest underdog on the card. He looks like a defensive liability and also hasn’t been very impressive with his offense. The only reason to consider playing him is his low ownership and the fact that we have seen Klein gas out in the past, although that was when he was cutting all the way down to 145 lb. Klein cardio has looked better at 155 lb and Roberts looks like nothing more than a hail mary lottery ticket who will need something flukey to happen to win. The odds imply Roberts has a 13% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Oumar Sy
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Sy is coming off a first round submission win in his UFC debut against George Tokkos, who was also debuting and stepped in on just a few days’ notice after Sy’s original opponent dropped out. Sy was able to quickly get Tokkos down and then methodically worked his way to a rear-naked choke while Tokkos put up very little resistance and just seemed happy to be there. That was Sy’s third straight first round finish and just before joining the UFC he landed a ground and pound TKO in just 81 seconds against a 40-year-old opponent in Ildemar Alcantara who came in on a four-fight losing streak and who previously went 4-3 in the UFC from 2013 to 2015, competing anywhere from 170 lb to 205 lb. That fight was listed as taking place at Heavyweight, which is sort of bizarre since neither guy has ever competed above Light Heavyweight in any of their other fights and Alcantara has fought a bunch at 170 lb. Prior to that, Sy locked up a quick first round submission against another former UFC fighter in Henrique da Silva, who went 2-4 in the UFC from 2016 to 2017. That came after Sy won a pair of wrestling-heavy decisions with the Ares and KSW promotions. Leading up to those two decision wins, he started his pro career off with five straight finishes, all in the first two rounds.
Now 10-0 as a pro, Sy has four wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and two decision victories. Seven of his eight finishes came in round one, with the other ending in round two. Sy has struggled some on the scale and has missed weight multiple times, meaning he’s always someone to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Overall, Sy is a French wrestler who is typically looking to take opponents down and control them on the mat while also looking for ground and pound and submissions. He doesn’t have much interest in keeping fights standing for long and can sometimes telegraph his takedown attempts because of that. However, he’s generally done a good job of getting opponents down, even if he does get reversed on the mat at times. He’s big and powerful, and also moves well, while doing a good job of floating through grappling positions. He’s spent some time training at Allstars in Sweden, so he’s had good training partners to work with and he’s shown the ability to completely dominate fights on the ground with his wrestling.
Da Woon Jung
9th UFC Fight (4-3-1)Coming in sideways, Jung has lost three straight and is a year removed from a shocking submission loss to a one-dimensional kickboxer in Carlos Ulberg. It was a weird ending, as Ulberg took Jung down in the final minute of the fight and then looked for a rear-naked choke in the closing seconds. The clock ran out and the fight appeared to hit the scorecards. However, the replay team then determined that Jung had tapped just before the fight ended and they retroactively changed the result to a submission. Ulberg was going to easily win a decision anyways, so it didn’t really make much of a difference, as he finished ahead 81-58 in significant strikes and 91-60 in total strikes. Prior to that, Jung lost a decision to Devin Clark in a fight that played out largely in the clinch and on the mat, with Jung landing 1 of his 5 takedown attempts with 5:48 in control time and Clark landing 3 of his 11 takedown attempts with 5:02 in control time. Clark finished ahead just 39-18 in significant strikes. That came after Jung suffered the first knockout loss of his career in the first round against Dustin Jacoby. Leading up to those three losses, Jung started out 4-0-1 in the UFC and in his last win he knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu in the first round, after winning a wrestling-heavy decision over William Knight.
Now 15-5-1 as a pro, Jung has 11 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2022), submitted twice, and has two decision losses. His first submission defeat came in 2015 in his third pro fight against Roque Martinez when Jung was still fighting at Heavyweight, while his second came in the third round of his last fight. After going 1-2 at Heavyweight in his first three pro fights, Jung dropped down to Light Heavyweight in 2016 and has since gone 14-3-1.
Overall, Jung is a dangerous striker, who throws heavy elbows, and also showed some wrestling chops when he landed eight takedowns against William Knight. However, he only landed two other takedowns in his other seven UFC fights and overall has landed 10 of his 20 attempts in the UFC (50% accuracy). On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 5 of their 22 attempts (77.3% defense). It’s rare to see big striking numbers in his fights and he only averages 3.49 SSL/min and 3.89 SSA/min. Jung is desperate for a win here to snap his current three fight skid, but will be traveling into enemy territory to take on an undefeated grappler.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’4”, but Sy will have a 5” reach advantage.
This is one of those spots where everyone will see that Jung has lost three straight just got submitted by a kickboxer and assume that it’s a foregone conclusion that Sy will submit him as well. And while that logically makes sense, week in and week out the UFC provides us with illogical results. Jung has shown some wrestling skills in the past and is the much more experienced fighter in this matchup. Sy remains almost entirely unproven and we’ve yet to see him face any adversity or have his striking and cardio really tested. Maybe he is Jailton Almeida lite, but he still needs to prove it. With that said, Jung’s submission defense—or lack there of—in his last fight was definitely concerning and Sy has a history of completing rear-naked chokes. And while Jung has a 77% takedown defense, each of his last two opponents were able to take him down and he stands pretty upright. So there’s still a good chance that Sy will be able to get him down, take his back, and get under his neck at some point. However, if Jung can keep the fight standing it will get very interesting and he’s the much more experienced striker. He throws good elbows and could catch Sy with something out of the clinch, leaving him with at least a shot at pulling off the huge upset. The most obvious outcome (Sy submission win) is still probably the most likely, but this fight has the potential to multiple different ways despite the wide odds. Sy has the potential to be a popular parlay buster this week and we don’t want anything to do with his moneyline. However, we’re also not overly confident in Jung and this is a spot where we’ll be treading lightly from a betting perspective. We’ll tentatively say that Sy wins by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Sy/Jung FGTD” at +180.
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DFS Implications:
Sy’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting provides him with a much safer scoring floor on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, but his ability to rack up takedowns and find finishes on the mat leaves him with a solid ceiling on both sites. He recently locked up a first round submission win in his UFC debut that was good for 107 DraftKings points and 117 points on FanDuel, but keep in mind that came against an opponent who stepped in on a few days’ notice and was also making his UFC debut. We haven’t seen anyone force Sy into a striking battle, which leaves some uncertainty with how he’ll look on the feet if he can’t land takedowns, and his cardio is also largely untested. While Jung has lost three straight and just got submitted by a one-dimensional kickboxer, it seems like an oversimplification to say that will result in an automatic submission win for Sy. Despite being a massive favorite here, this should be the toughest test of Sy’s career and the line seems a little wide. Nevertheless, that’s more of a concern for Sy’s floor than his ceiling and if he can get his ground game going he’ll have a ton of scoring potential. And while Jung has a 77% takedown defense, his last two opponents were each able to get him to the mat. We expect Sy to be very popular, which does add some merit in looking for ways he fails in tournaments and at his expensive salary he could lock up an efficient submission and still get priced out of the optimal. And while a wrestling-heavy decision could still be enough for him to score well on DraftKings, he’ll be more reliant on a finish on FanDuel. The odds imply Sy has an 83% chance to win, a 52% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Jung has lost three straight fights and was embarrassingly submitted by Carlos Ulberg in his most recent defeat. However, prior to his current losing streak Jung had shown solid upside both in terms of finishing and his ability to score well in a decision through his wrestling. His last two finishes both came in the first round, where he returned DraftKings scores of 106 and 102, while he also totaled 112 points in a wrestling-heavy decision win over William Knight. Jung is still only 30 years old and while he hasn’t looked good lately, there’s still plenty of time for him to figure things out and make the necessary adjustments. He could be fighting for his job and he’ll have the experience and striking advantages in this matchup, so he’s worth a look at his extremely cheap price tag, especially since he would be an amazing leverage play if he pulls off the upset. There are still a lot of unanswered questions with Sy and it makes sense to lean into that uncertainty in tournaments by being overweight on Jung. Just keep in mind, he has a non-existent scoring floor with the potential to get taken down and submitted immediately. The odds imply Jung has a 17% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Ion Cutelaba
17th UFC Fight (6-9-1)Cutelaba is coming off a rare decision loss at the hands of Philipe Lins, who destroyed Cutelaba’s lead leg early on in the match and left him compromised from that point on. Lines landed more leg kicks in that fight (23) than in his previous five UFC fights combined (20). Lins was also able to take Cutelaba down twice on seven attempts, while Cutelaba failed to land his only takedown attempt in the match. With that loss, Cutelaba is now just 1-4 in his last five fights, although he did land a first round knockout win in his second most recent fight, after getting finished in three straight fights before that. That win came against Tanner Boser, who was making the move down from Heavyweight to Light Heavyweight and has since been cut. Prior to that, Cutelaba got knocked out in the second round by Kennedy Nzechukwu after getting submitted in the first round by both Johnny Walker and Ryan Spann. Cutelaba is just 2-6-1 in his last nine fights with his one other win over that stretch coming in a 2021 decision over Devin Clark.
Now 17-10-1 as a pro, Cutelaba has 13 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions (both by Omoplata early in his career), and two decision victories. Fourteen of his 15 finishes occurred in round one, with the one exception being a 2013 TKO that occurred 29 seconds into the second round of his fourth pro fight. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted four more, has two decision defeats, and one DQ loss. Cutelaba has always been a fast starter and 20 of his 29 pro fights ended in the first round (14-5, NC), with three more ending in round two (1-2), and one ending in round three (0-1).
Overall, Cutelaba is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but is prone to slowing down later on in fights and consistently finds ways to lose. He has a background in Greco-Roman Wrestling, Sambo, and Judo, but early in his UFC career he was content with duking it out on the feet, as he only took down two of his first nine UFC opponents, and didn’t even attempt a takedown in five of those fights. However, he’s landed 24 of his 45 takedown attempts in his last seven fights, with at least one landed in six of those matches and multiple in four of them. Looking at his entire UFC career, he’s landed 34 of his 59 takedown attempts (57.6% accuracy), while he’s been taken down by his opponents on 9 of 38 attempts (76.3% defense). While Cutelaba is extremely dangerous, he’s only landed one finish in his career beyond the first round. And since joining the UFC, he’s just 2-5-1 in fights that made it past round one. With that said, he still only has two decision losses in his career, although he’s only required the judges five times (2-2-1).
Ivan Erslan
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut, Erslan has traded wins and losses over his last five fights, with six of his last seven fights ending in first round knockouts (5-1). He lost his last two fights that made it out of the first round, with a 2020 second round submission and a 2022 five-round decision, with both of those losses coming in KSW Light Heavyweight title fights. He also got knocked out in the second round of a 2018 fight, although that was later overturned to a No Contest because his opponent failed a drug test. The last time he won a fight that lasted longer than five minutes was in a 2018 three-round decision in his fifth pro bout. His last win ended in a 54 second knockout, after he got knocked out late in the first round just before that. That followed another quick first-round knockout win, after he handedly lost a five-round striking battle.
Now 14-3 as a pro, Erslan has 10 KO/TKO wins and one by submission, as well as three decision victories. All of his finishes ended in the first round, while all of his decisions occurred in his first five pro fights, and one of them was only two rounds. He’s also been knocked out once himself, submitted once, and has one decision loss.
Overall, Erslan is a Croatian striker who relies on his power punching to win fights. He’s shown nothing in terms of grappling, but will look for heavy ground and pound if fights end up on the mat. He’s been fighting with KSW since 2019 and is almost 33 years old, so he’s well seasoned and already fairly deep into his career after turning pro back in 2015. He normally trains out of American Top Team Zagreb in Croatia, but came to the main American Top Team gym in Florida to prepare for this fight for the last 10 weeks. While he does have good power, he doesn’t offer much else and appears very one-dimensional. While he has shown the cardio to go five rounds, keep in mind he wasn’t forced to wrestle hardly at all in that fight and it was a pretty manageable pace in a striking battle. It will be interesting to see how his gas tank holds up against grapplers in the UFC, although the Light Heavyweight division is packed full of strikers. With that said, he’ll face a wrestler here and this should be a good test for him.
Fight Prediction:
Erslan will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 75” reach and Cutelaba is two years younger than the 32-year-old Erslan.
This will be the second straight time that the coaches at American Top Team will be preparing to face Cutelaba, as Philipe Lins also trains there. We saw Lins come in with a surprisingly leg kick heavy approach that was extremely successful, although Erslan normally relies more on his boxing to win fights. Both Cutelaba and Erslan have been heavily reliant on landing first round knockouts to secure victories in their respective careers, but Cutelaba also has the ability to out wrestle his way to decision victories and he would be wise to take that approach here against Erslan, who looks like a one-dimensional striker. Who knows how much longer the UFC will let Cutelaba stick around if he keeps losing and he could be fighting for his job here. That’s just another reason for him to wrestle, opposed to risking getting knocked out if he opts to keep the fight standing. However, he consistently makes poor decisions in fights and he can’t really be trusted to execute a smart game plan. Both guys in this fight have shown durability concerns and they’re each fully capable of knocking out the other. However, it’s extremely rare to see either of them land a finish beyond the first round, with 25 of their 26 combined finishes ending in under five minutes. So if this does see the second round, there’s a good chance it goes the full 15 minutes, and we like Cutelaba’s chances in a decision based on his wrestling. Despite this being a KO crapshoot early on, we’ll still reluctantly side with Cutelaba in the hopes that he uses his wrestling to negate the punching power of Erslan. Despite the oddsmakers setting the fight doesn’t go the distance line at -700, give us Cutelaba by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Ion Cutelaba DEC” at +1000.
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DFS Implications:
Cutelaba is just 1-4 in his last five fights and fought to a rare low-volume lackluster decision in his last match. However, he was able to land a first round knockout just before that, scoring 108 DraftKings points in the process. That snapped a three-fight losing streak at the time, with all three of those losses ending in under a round and a half. In his six UFC wins, Cutelaba averaged 110 DraftKings points, scoring 107 or more in each of his last five victories. So while he doesn’t win very often, when he does, he almost always scores well. And while his last fight didn’t produce a big score for the winner, Cutelaba was finished in seven of his nine UFC losses and whoever wins generally scores pretty well. He’s going up against a one-dimensional power puncher here and Cutelaba has tons of wrestling upside if he’s willing to fight smart—which is always asking a lot from him. However, considering his job could be on the line, there’s probably a higher chance than normal that he takes the path of least resistance and leans on his ground game. The last time he won a wrestling-heavy decision he was able to score 127 DraftKings points and 118 points on FanDuel, showing tons of upside on both sites regardless of whether or not he finds a finish. He also has a shot at landing a quick finish and Erslan was just knocked out in his second most recent fight. There’s still a reasonably high chance that Cutelaba gets knocked out himself, so we can’t trust his floor, but his ceiling is undeniable. The odds imply Cutelaba has a 49% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Erslan is a one-dimensional power puncher who’s shown nothing in terms of grappling and also doesn’t land a crazy amount of volume. That leaves him entirely reliant on landing well timed knockouts to score in DFS, but his last nine wins all ended in the first round. And working in his favor, Cutelaba has just one win in his last five outings and has been very prone to getting finished. However, Cutelaba is also a good wrestler, which makes things dicey for Erslan and could limit his opportunities to land the knockout he needs to score well. That could also make it tougher for Erslan to score well with a rare late finish if he spends early periods of the fight being controlled. So it’s best to treat him as an early KO or bust play in a low-floor, high-upside matchup. The odds imply Erslan has a 51% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Matt Frevola
11th UFC Fight (5-4-1)Frevola is 10 months removed from a quick 91 second first round knockout loss to Benoit Saint Denis, who Frevola was able to take down twice before getting head kicked into the abyss. That snapped a three-fight winning streak for Frevola and his last five fights all ended in first round knockouts (3-2). Frevola also got knocked out in the first round of his 2018 UFC debut by a suspect Marco Polo Reyes, but then fought to four straight decisions (2-1-1), before getting knocked out in just seven seconds by a debuting Terrance McKinney in 2021. He notably has a decision win over Jalin Turner and a knockout victory over Drew Dober on his record. And the only fighter to ever beat Frevola on the scorecards was Arman Tsarukyan, who should be fighting for the belt soon. That fight was put together on one day’s notice after both of their opponents dropped out during weigh-ins. All 10 of Frevola’s UFC fights ended in either first round knockouts (3-3) or went the distance (2-1-1).
Now 11-4-1 as a pro, Frevola has four wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. He’s also been knocked out three times himself and has one decision loss. Six of his seven early wins ended in round one, with the one exception being a 2017 R2 submission victory on DWCS. All three of his knockout losses ended in 91 seconds or less.
Overall, Frevola is pretty well-rounded and he wrestled when he was younger and is a BJJ brown belt, but he often falls in love with his striking. Between his 10 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 14 takedowns on 35 attempts (40% accuracy), although only landed two takedowns on just five attempts in his last six fights. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 12 of their 21 attempts (42.9% defense), which doesn’t look very good on paper until you realize 10 of those takedowns were by Arman Tsarukyan. In Frevola’s other 10 most recent fights he was only taken down twice on nine attempts (77.8% defense). And Frevola did show pretty good scrambling ability early on in that fight against Tsarukyan, even if the overall numbers looked terrible for him. While Frevola only averages 3.71 SSL/min and 3.57 SSA/min in his career, those numbers have jumped to 9.64 SSL/min and 4.34 SSA/min in his last five matches. He’s really been forcing the action lately and says he’s going to force Ziam into a more exciting fight.
Fares Ziam
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Ziam has won three straight decisions since getting submitted by Terrance McKinney in the first round of a 2022 matchup, which is the only time Ziam didn’t require the scorecards in his seven Octagon appearances. After losing a wrestling-heavy decision in his 2019 UFC debut, Ziam won the last five decisions he’s been to, but has never finished anybody in the UFC. The most recent of his wins came in a close split decision against a one-dimensional grappler in Claudio Puelles, who was able to take Ziam down seven times on 13 attempts and finished with over seven minutes of control time. However, Ziam finished ahead 31-4 in significant strikes and 58-17 in total strikes and Puelles never did any damage in the fight. Prior to that, he won a low-volume decision against his physical doppelganger in Jai Herbert. Despite both guys being strikers, they each looked to wrestle, but neither found much success. Herbert went 0 for 6 on his takedown attempts and Ziam went 1 for 5. Just before that, Ziam put on his most impressive performance to date in a decision win over a previously undefeated Michal Figlak, who was making his UFC debut in front of Ziam’s home Paris crowd. Ziam showed improvements to his wrestling in that fight, as he took Figlak down three times on seven attempts with nearly seven minutes of control time, while Figlak was only able to land 1 of his 5 attempts. Leading up to that win, grappling had been Ziam’s Achilles heel, but apparently after getting submitted by Terrance McKinney in the first round of his previous match he put in some work improving his ground game. The UFC actually released Ziam following his loss to McKinney, but they were in need of additional French fighters for the Paris card so they brought him right back on. Before the McKinney loss, Ziam won a pair of incredibly close decisions, one of which looked like he lost against Jamie Mullarkey and the other was close to being ruled a draw against Luigi Vendramini.
Now 15-4 as a pro, Ziam has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and six decision victories. Three of his four submission wins came in his first four pro fights, with his only other submission occurring in a 2019 R3 guillotine just before he joined the UFC. He also hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2018. He’s never been knocked out himself, but he has been submitted in the first round three times, all by rear-naked choke, and has one decision loss. Two of those three submission losses occurred very early in his career, back in 2016. Ziam started his pro career off at 185 lb, before dropping down to 170 lb for his third pro fight. After two fights at 170 lb, Ziam then lost a 159 lb Catchweight match, before moving down to 155 lb in 2016, where he’s since gone 11-3.
Overall, Ziam is a French kickboxer and a patient counter striker who only averages 2.70 SSL/min and 1.72 SSA/min. He can be painfully tentative with his approach and the only even semi-impressive performance he’s put on in the UFC was when he competed in front of his home French crowd in his win over Figlak. After landing just one takedown in his first three UFC fights, Ziam landed four in his last four matches, and it seems like he’s made some improvements to his wrestling. Looking at his seven UFC fights as a whole, he landed 5 of his 21 takedown attempts (23.8% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 17 of their 53 attempts (67.9% defense). He’s still only 27 years old and has plenty of time to continue to grow as a fighter, and now he’ll once again be fighting in front of his home crowd.
Fight Prediction:
Ziam will have a 4” height and reach advantage, while also being seven years younger than the 34-year-old Frevola.
While Ziam has shown some improvements to his wrestling, that’s still where Frevola holds the biggest advantage in this matchup. The only question is whether or not Frevola will take the path of least resistance, as he’s shown a dubious fight IQ at times in the past and is prone to getting sucked into brawls and often knocked out. However, Ziam hasn’t looked like any sort of finisher and hasn’t knocked anybody out in his last nine fights going back to 2018. Ziam has also never been knocked out himself, so even though Frevola’s last five fights all ended in first round knockouts (3-2), the chances of this one ending quickly are much lower. Ziam has made a career out of slowing fights down and the larger Octagon should help him with that, as it will leave him with more room to evade. Even though we don’t trust him to completely lean on his wrestling, we still like Frevola’s chances of landing takedowns, and unlike Ziam’s last opponent, Claudio Puelles, we expect Frevola to be looking to do damage on the ground. However, Frevola hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017 and we’d be surprised to see him find a finish on the mat. If he doesn’t land takedowns, Ziam will have a good shot at outlanding his way to a decision win, and either way we like this fight to tend with the judges. With the crowd behind him, Ziam could have a slight leg up on the scorecards if the fight is close and he’s had an uncanny ability to squeak out decisions. However, the potential for him to get taken down and controlled for extended periods of time also makes it hard to trust him and this feels like one that could go either way. Forced to choose, we’ll tentatively take Ziam, but we’d rather just bet on the fight going the distance opposed to picking a side.
Our favorite bet here is “Frevola/Ziam FGTD” at -102.
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DFS Implications:
Frevola has averaged 108 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with his last five fights all ending in first round knockouts (3-2). However, he’s also faced five straight brawlers who rarely require the judges in Benoit Saint Denis, Drew Dober, Ottman Azaitar, Genaro Valdez, and Terrance McKinney. Now he’s going up against the exact opposite in Fares Ziam, who’s a complete decision machine. Ziam has gone the distance in six of his seven UFC fights, yet has never landed more than 61 significant strikes or absorbed more than 49. And while Ziam has been prone to getting taken down, Frevola only returned DraftKings scores of 75 and 85 points in his two UFC three-round decision victories. Frevola will also be traveling into enemy territory for this matchup and we’ve seen some horrendous French judging favoring the hometown fighters in the past. Frevola has also refused to take the path of least resistance at times in the past and prides himself on making fights exciting (i.e. fighting like an idiot). While that’s great from a pure fan viewing perspective, it can be frustrating when trying to predict what his game plan will be. With that said, there’s still a good chance he looks for takedowns, and at his midrange price tag he would still have a chance to score well on DraftKings in a wrestling-heavy decision win, while he’ll be more reliant on a finish on FanDuel. Ziam has never been knocked out and Frevola hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017, so it doesn’t look like a great spot for Frevola to end things early. After opening the week as a slight favorite, the line flipped to Frevola being the underdog, leaving him overpriced on DraftKings. That should lower his DraftKings ownership some, which does slightly add to his tournament appeal. Nevertheless, it’s rare to see the winner in Ziam’s fights return a meaningful DFS score. The odds imply Frevola has a 45% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Ziam has averaged just 69 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with all of those going the distance. The only time he ever topped 69 points was when he got to compete in front of his home French crowd and looked like a completely different fighter, as he suddenly looked like he knew how to wrestle for the first time and was willing to push the pace more. He was able to do a decent job filling up the stat sheet in that win over a debuting Michal Figlak, and scored 96 DraftKings points in the victory. However, he still only landed 60 significant strikes in that fight, which is just one shy of his career high. The last time he finished anybody was in 2019, in a third round guillotine just before he joined the UFC. So while Frevola has been knocked out in the opening minute and a half in three of his four pro losses, Ziam is an unlikely candidate to continue that trend. However, Ziam will be once again fighting in front of his home crowd, so maybe we’ll see another invigorated performance from him and Frevola has made it clear he intends on forcing Ziam into a more exciting fight. And at Ziam’s reasonable price tag, he likely doesn’t need to put up a massive score to end up in winning lineups. The line has moved in his favor, leaving him underpriced on DraftKings, but we’d still be surprised to see him highly owned and he was 14% or less owned in each of his last four fights. There is the potential for Ziam to spend extended periods of time on his back in this matchup, so he’s far from a safe play, but if you were ever going to play Ziam in DFS this would be the time. The odds imply Ziam has a 55% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Morgan Charriere
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Charriere was originally scheduled to face a punching bag in AJ Cunningham here, before Cunningham dropped out and was replaced by Miranda three weeks out.
Charriere continues to have an uncanny ability to fight to (and typically lose) close split decisions, with his last eight decisions somehow all being split (2-5-1). The most recent of those came against Chepe Mariscal. One judge scored all three rounds for Charriere, while the other two had Mariscal winning rounds one and three. It was definitely a close fight that was hard to score, but Mariscal finished ahead in significant strikes 71-49 and in total strikes 121-75, while Charriere led in takedowns 2-1. Both fighters secured a reversal and control time was almost dead even. That snapped a four-fight winning streak for Charriere, including a first round knockout win in his UFC debut just before that against a terrible Manolo Zecchini, who was also making his debut. That fight took place in front of Charriere’s home French crowd and was a clear setup spot for him to get a finish. Prior to that, he landed two more TKO wins (R1 & R3) with Cage Warriors. He was more tentative in his July 2023 R3 TKO just before making his UFC debut, but if you listen to him talk about it, he said that he was trying to find a finish while making sure not to take any damage so that he would be able to turn around and fight on the Paris card just six weeks later, which he was successful in doing. That win came against the gatekeeper to the UFC in Diego Silva, who also helped propel Muin Gafurov, Dan Argueta, and Jay Perrin into the organization. That came after Charriere won in a post R1 doctor stoppage TKO after fighting to three straight split decisions (1-2). Charriere’s last five losses all ended in split decisions, with three of those coming in five-round Cage Warriors title fights.
Now 19-10-1 as a pro, Charriere has 11 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and five decision victories. The only time he’s been finished was in a 2015 R1 submission in his fourth pro fight, but he’s gone just 5-9-1 with the judges. All three of his submission wins occurred in under a round and a half, with two of those coming in the first half of round one. While he has six first round knockout wins, five of his last seven knockouts occurred in the later rounds, with four of those ending in the third round. Charriere has more fights (30) than trips around the sun (28), after turning pro when he was just 19 years old.
Overall, Charriere is a well-rounded French fighter who started his training in Judo when he was just seven years old and eventually earned his black belt. He also has a brown belt in Luta livre and a BJJ purple belt. He offers a solid combination of striking and grappling, although hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018. While he has the ability to rack up strikes, he’s also been overly patient at times, which has resulted in a lot of close/split decisions for him. We’ve seen him get reversed on the mat at multiple points, so controlling positions is one area he needs to work on. It also kind of seems like he often mirrors his opponents, and if they want to brawl he’ll brawl, or if they want to wrestle he’ll wrestle. However, that also means when he gets a more passive opponent we end up with slower paced fights. He’s still only 28 years old, so he has plenty of time to continue to evolve and he looks like a talented fighter to keep an eye on. He’ll once again be fighting in front of his home crowd here.
Gabriel Miranda
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Miranda is a year removed from his first and only UFC win in a quick 59 second submission against a terrible Shane Young, who has lost four straight fights going back to 2019. Miranda was easily able to get Young down, take his back, and quickly locked up a rear-naked choke that put him out. That came almost exactly a year after Miranda suffered a second round TKO loss in his short notice UFC debut against Benoit Saint Denis. Miranda was set up to fail in that fight as he took on the pride of Paris in enemy territory. Miranda was able to take Saint Denis down once, but then wilted under the pressure as the round went on before getting immediately finished in round two. Prior to joining the UFC, Miranda had submitted three straight opponents in the opening six minutes of fights, although there are some questions regarding the legitimacy of some of his opponents/wins with the “Face the Danger” organization. However, he also went 2-1 with a legitimate organization in Brave FC.
Now 17-6 as a pro, Miranda has one win by R1 TKO (2013) and 16 submission victories. Of his 17 early wins, 15 ended in round one, with the other two ending in the opening minute of round two and he’s never won a fight that lasted longer than six minutes. He has two TKO losses (R2 2022 & R1 2016) and lost all four of the decisions he’s been to. Miranda has fought at both 145 lb and 155 lb in his career, but most of his fights have been at 155 lb, where he lost his UFC debut. However, he then dropped back down to 145 lb for his last fight, where it appears he’ll stay.
Overall, Miranda is a BJJ black belt and submission ninja with a sick arm-in guillotine choke. He’ll also throw up a variety of other submissions from all types of positions. He’ll gladly jump guillotine or flop to his back to try and get fights to the mat and is a creative grappler who doesn’t fight to win decisions (clearly). He hasn’t shown much in the way of striking or durability and when he can’t find an early finish he often wilts under the pressure of his opponents. That leaves him as a grappling specialist who will generally get knocked out whenever he can’t lock up an early submission. In his two UFC fights, he landed two of his five takedown attempts (40% accuracy), while also getting taken down once himself on the only attempt against him.
Fight Prediction:
Miranda will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while Charriere is six years younger than the 34-year-old Miranda.
The UFC is clearly trying to get Charriere back on track in front of his home crowd following a questionable split decision loss. First they matched him up against a punching bag in AJ Cunningham, before replacing Cunningham with a pinata in Miranda. There’s a short list of the most automatic knockouts in the UFC and those two probably top it. While Miranda is a talented grappler, he’s looked helpless on the feet and got knocked down three times in under six minutes in his UFC debut. Charriere comes in with an 87% takedown defense and 11 knockout wins on his record, so it’s pretty clear what the most likely outcome is in this matchup. Miranda will desperately be looking for an early submission and if he can’t find one then it’s unlikely he survives very long. He’s dangerous enough on the mat that we can’t completely eliminate the possibility of him locking something up, but it would be pretty shocking to see it happen. Charriere is really solid and well rounded and we expect him to fight smart and remain out of danger. Miranda has shown no ability to defend himself from strikes and it shouldn’t take too long for the ref to step in and stop things once Charriere starts connecting. We fully expect Charriere to knock Miranda out in under a round and a half.
Our favorite bet here is “Charriere/Miranda Under 1.5 Rounds” at +128.
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DFS Implications:
Charriere is coming off a questionable split-decision loss to Chepe Mariscal where he only scored 46 DraftKings points and wouldn’t have returned a meaningful score regardless of the outcome. Prior to that, he put up 110 points in an impressive first round knockout win in his UFC debut. That came in front of Charriere’s home French crowd against a terrible opponent who was also making his debut, and now Charriere will be returning to the scene of the crime. The UFC seems content with teeing up Charriere with highlight reel knockouts everytime they go to Paris and he gets another dream matchup here against Miranda. The last time Miranda fought in Paris he got knocked down three times in less than six minutes, allowing Benoit Saint Denis to score 136 DraftKings points, despite a terribly timed early second round finish. Obviously Charriere and Saint Denis are two very different fighters, but that just shows you how high the upside is in this matchup. Miranda has shown no ability to defend himself on the feet and is a multi-knockdown knockout waiting to happen. With that said, he is a dangerous grappler and you don’t want to find yourself with him on your back. There’s a very slight chance that Charriere could completely fumble the bag and get himself submitted, but it’s far more likely that he knocks Miranda out and puts up a big score in the process. As the second most expensive fighter on the card, he’ll still need things to break the right way to end up in the optimal lineup, but this is an absolute smash spot. The odds imply Charriere has an 84% chance to win, a 58% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Miranda is an early submission or bust play who got knocked out quickly in his UFC debut but then bounced back with a quick submission win against a terrible opponent in his last fight. With the help of the Quick Win Bonus, he was able to score 122 DraftKings points in that recent victory, but his path to victory is truly limited to an early submission. He has no clue how to defend himself on the feet and will be incredibly prone to getting knocked out anytime this fight remains standing. Working against him, Charriere has an 87% takedown defense and Miranda will be traveling into enemy territory where he got steamrolled in his UFC debut. Miranda has also only been fighting once a year since joining the UFC in 2022 and that always makes it tougher to stay sharp. Ultimately, this is a very straightforward spot. All 17 of Miranda’s career wins ended in under six minutes and either he locks up an early submission and ends up in the optimal lineup or he gets knocked out and scores almost nothing. It makes sense to have a small amount of exposure to Miranda for your sanity, but make no mistake, he’s the mark in this murder plot that the UFC setup. The odds imply Miranda has a 16% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Bryan Battle
8th UFC Fight (5-1, NC)Battle’s last fight was abruptly stopped in round two and went down as a No Contest after Ange Loosa took a thumb to the eye and then told the doctor he couldn’t see. While it’s always hard to gauge the severity of eye pokes, it didn’t appear that bad and it seemed like Loosa just took the easy way out in a fight he was clearly losing. Battle won the first round on all three scorecards and Loosa was never able to get anything going, as Battle controlled the range and never let Loosa get close to landing a takedown. Prior to that, Battle locked up a second round submission win against AJ Fletcher., which was Battle’s third official second round submission win in his last six victories and he also had another second round submission over Andre Petroski on The Ultimate Fighter, which doesn’t count towards his official pro record. Fletcher failed to land either of his two takedown attempts against Battle, while Battle landed one of his own two attempts and then made the most of it as he found a finish on the mat. Just before that, Battle landed a 14 second round one knockout in front of his home Charlotte crowd against Gabe Green, who came into the fight firing like Battle just ran over his dog. Green charged forward with reckless abandonment right out of the gate and was immediately made to pay for it as Battle caught him with a right hand to the chin to put him out. Leading up to that quick win, Battle suffered his first UFC loss when he got smothered on the mat for three rounds by Rinat Fakhretdinov. Battle landed just three significant strikes in the fight, as he got taken down seven times and controlled for over 14 minutes. Just before that loss, Battle landed a 44 second first round knockout against Takashi Sato after dropping down from 185 lb to 170 lb for the first time in his career. Battle’s first two UFC wins both came against opponents from The Ultimate Fighter, in Gilbert Urbina, who was filling in for Tresean Gore on short notice, and then Tresean Gore after he recovered from a knee injury. Battle submitted Urbina in the second round, and then won a decision over Gore.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Battle has three wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and two decision victories. Four of his five submission wins came in round two, not even counting his R2 submission victory against Andre Petroski on TUF that technically counts as an exhibition match and doesn’t show up on his pro record. He also had a first round submission win early in his career. Two of his three knockout wins ended in the opening 44 seconds of UFC fights, while he also has a late second round knockout win on his record. Battle has also been submitted once himself and has one decision defeat. His submission loss came via armbar 51 seconds into his second pro fight, and he’s gone 9-1 since then, not even counting his two wins on TUF.
Overall, Battle is an uptempo fighter who throws a lot of kicks and knees out of the clinch, and has started looking more dangerous with his hands recently. In his seven UFC fights, he landed 4 of his 14 takedown attempts (28.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 21 attempts (47.6% defense). Three of the five UFC opponents who tried to take him down landed at least two of their attempts. While his defensive wrestling hasn’t been that great, he’s shown the ability to find finishes both on the feet and the mat and will look for a variety of chokes in the grappling exchanges. He lands a good amount of striking volume, although his career numbers (4.52 SSL/min & 3.74 SSA/min) are dragged down by his decision loss to Fakhretdinov where he only landed three significant strikes in 15 minutes. Ultimately, Battle isn’t a guy that will necessarily blow you away in any one area, but he’s dangerous everywhere and seems to have sneaky power and submission skills. He also appears to be consistently improving and he’s still only 30 years old.
Kevin Jousset
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Jousset had been set to face Jared Gooden back in May, but Gooden dropped out the day before the fight due to a medical issue. Prior to that, Jousset extended his winning streak to five with a unanimous 30-27 decision victory over Song Kenan, where Jousset nonchalantly finished ahead 134-62 in significant strikes and also landed one of his two takedown attempts. That came exactly three months after Jousset secured the first submission win of his career in the first round of his UFC debut against Kiefer Crosbie, who was also making his debut. Crosbie started strong and finished the fight ahead in striking, but slowed as the round went on and Jousset was able to take his back and lock up a choke with 11 seconds left on the clock. Before joining the UFC, Jousset landed a third round ground and pound TKO win for the Hex Fight Series 170 lb belt, just after he won the 185 lb belt with the same promotion. While becoming double champ is always impressive, the fights themselves weren’t the most exciting performances. He won the 185 lb belt in a five-round split decision against a 40-year-old opponent who hadn’t fought in four years and also hasn't competed since. Then he took on Kitt Campbell, who was just 2-3 in his previous five fights and landed a lot of good shots on Jousset, before Jousset finished Campbell with ground and pound midway through the fight. Five of Jousset’s last seven fights went the distance (4-1), with three of those decisions being split.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Jousset has four wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. His first three knockout wins all ended in round one, with two of those coming in his first two pro fights, while his most recent TKO victory ended in round three. He also has one R2 TKO loss and one decision defeat. His lone early loss came in his third pro fight against Jack Della Maddalena.
Overall, Jousset was born in France but trains at City Kickboxing in New Zealand. He’s decently well-rounded but doesn’t really stand out as exceptional anywhere—other than being really tall. He’s a Judo black belt, but only has one submission win on his record and got outgrappled by Jack Della Maddalena early in his career. He throws a lot of kicks and jabs, and does a decent job of utilizing his size. However, he’s not the most explosive striker and has often been content with grinding out decisions. He also hasn’t shown great movement and looks pretty hittable, as he averages 8.23 SSL/min and 5.10 SSA/min. In his two UFC fights, he landed two of his three takedown attempts (66.7% accuracy), while successfully defending the only attempt against him. Even going back to his regional days, he generally lands a takedown or two in most of his fights, but we haven’t seen him put up any big takedown totals.
Fight Prediction:
Jousset will have a 1” height advantage, but Battle will have a 2” reach advantage.
This is a good test for each of these two, as they have a lot in common. They share a 10-2 pro record and they’re both tall strikers who will mix in grappling and neither guy has really been tested all that much. They’ve both shown the ability to put up big striking totals, but Battle is more of a finisher, while Jousset is often content with outlanding his way to decision wins. They both tend to keep their chin high in the air and will often wait and look to counter their opponents’ strikes. So it will be interesting to see who takes the lead and forces the action or if that results in a slightly slower pace than expected. While Jousset trains in New Zealand, he’s from France and this will be a homecoming for him, meaning the crowd will be behind him. It won’t be that surprising to see him just work behind his jab and win a close decision, but we see more finishing upside for Battle. Six of Battle’s seven UFC fights were at the Apex in Las Vegas, with the one exception being when he fought in front of his home Charlotte crowd. So this will be the first time he’s gone into hostile enemy territory in the UFC and it will be interesting to see how he deals with that new challenge. He’s also never fought outside of the US before, so overall it will be a new experience for him, which adds a level of uncertainty to the mix. And while we believe that Battle is the more likely of the two to find a finish, the betting market is expecting this fight to go the distance about two-thirds of the time. Jousset lands enough striking volume that he has a clear path to winning on the scorecards and the potential for some home cooking from the judges just adds to his appeal. While we do have some concerns with Jousset’s striking defense and can definitely see a world where Battle finishes him, we’ll take Jousset to win by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Kevin Jousset DEC” at +275.
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DFS Implications:
Battle has impressively averaged 108 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with four finishes that all scored 97 or more. It certainly doesn’t hurt that two of those finishes ended in the opening minute and garnered the Quick Win Bonus, but even in his lone decision victory he still scored 87 points. While he’s yet to land more than a single takedown in a UFC fight, his combination of striking and grappling makes him dangerous anywhere a fight can go. He “only” averages 4.52 SSL/min, but that number is brought down by his one UFC loss, where he got smothered on the mat for three rounds and only landed three total significant strikes. In his five UFC wins, he averaged 6.50 SSL/min and now he’s facing Kevin Jousset, who averages a healthy 5.10 SSA/min. That creates the potential for a ton of striking volume in this matchup and if Battle can combine that with a finish then he’d be looking at a huge DFS score. And even without a finish he should have a decent volume-driven scoring floor, as Jousset hasn’t looked like much of a finisher. He’ll still probably need a finish to end up in tournament winning lineups, but his floor and ceiling combination also keep him in the low-risk conversation. The odds imply Battle has a 59% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Jousset is coming off a high-volume decision win where he landed 134 significant strikes and a takedown, scoring 96 DraftKings points and 106 points on FanDuel in the process. Just before that, he locked up a late first round submission in his UFC debut that was good for 110 DraftKings points and 128 points on FanDuel. While his regional tape was far less impressive and was made up of a lot of slower-paced split decisions, the UFC has been feeding him favorable matchups and he’s shown the ability to capitalize in those situations. He’ll face a tougher test here than in his previous two matches, but he’ll also have the home crowd behind him, while Battle will be fighting outside of the US for the first time in his career. That could benefit Jousset if this ends in a closer decision and could also motivate him to try and put on a show for the home fans. While we’d be surprised to see Jousset finish Battle, at his cheaper price tag a high-volume decision could still be enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups, as was the case in his last fight. However, Battle has made short work of several of his opponents and Jousset tends to leave his chin up and his head on the centerline, leaving him with the potential to get finished. The odds imply Jousset has a 41% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Joanderson Brito
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Now on a five-fight winning streak, Brito recently finished Jack Shore in a second round doctor stoppage TKO where he gruesomely burst Shore’s leg open with a barrage of kicks. Shore failed to get Brito down on two attempts, while Brito landed his only attempt and finished with five minutes of control time, in addition to outlanding Shore 57-31 in total strikes. Prior to that, Brito locked up a second round submission win over a relentless wrestler in Jonathan Pearce. Brito got controlled for most of that fight, before Pearce lost focus in the second round and found himself stuck in a ninja choke. Brito’s previous three wins all ended in under three minutes, however, the last two of those both came against opponents making their short notice UFC debuts. To his credit, he did land a 41 second knockout against a tough veteran in Andre Fili in his first UFC win. Brito’s only loss in his last 18 fights came in a decision in his 2022 UFC debut against Bill Algeo. Brito punched his ticket to the UFC with a technical decision win over Diego Lopes on DWCS in 2021, after violently knocking out Jose Mariscal in just 44 seconds.
Now 17-3-1 as a pro, Brito has gone 16-1-1 in his last 18 fights after starting off his pro career just 1-2 back in 2013. He has eight wins by KO/TKO, seven more by submission, and two decision victories. Ten of his 15 finishes occurred in the opening three minutes of the first round, while he also has four second round finishes, and another in round three. He was finished by his opponents twice in the first round in his first three pro fights (2013 & 2015), once by TKO and another by submission, with his only other career loss coming by decision in his UFC debut. Brito has primarily competed at 145 lb and 155 lb in the past, but did fight down at 135 lb early in his career. He’s remained at 145 lb since 2019, which is where it appears he’ll stay.
Overall, Brito is a blitzing wild man who throws violent strikes with fight-ending intentions and will also look for takedowns. Between his DWCS appearance and his six UFC fights, Brito landed 10 of his 13 takedown attempts (76.9% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on three of their eight attempts (62.5% defense). He’ll look for a variety of chokes in the grappling exchanges, in addition to trying to finish opponents with haymakers. While he’s dangerous in a variety of ways, he lacks much finesse and simply tries to bull rush and overpower his opponents. Brito uses so much energy early on in fights that he tends to slow down later on in matches.
William Gomis
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Gomis’ last three scheduled fights all fell through, with him dropping out of the last two of those. His most recent dropout came just after weigh-ins after he looked like a corpse on the scale. It’s been just over a year since he last competed, but he’s still undefeated in the UFC. He’s coming off his first finish with the organization, but there was some controversy involved. The fight ended in round three after his opponent, Yanis Ghemmouri, thought he absorbed a low-blow and tried to stop the fight himself, but the ref disagreed and told him to fight on. As soon as Ghemmouri declined, the ref stopped the fight. It didn’t really change a whole lot, as Gomis won the first two rounds on all three scorecards in the low-volume fight and finished ahead 52-28 in significant strikes. He never attempted a takedown of his own, but stuffed all four of Ghemmouri’s attempts. That matchup got put together on very short notice after Gomis was originally scheduled to face Lucas Almeida, who dropped out during fight week, as did another fighter on the card and the UFC was forced to play musical chairs with the matchups as they consolidated three fights into two. Gomis has won 11 straight fights, with each of his first two UFC fights ending in split decision wins. The first of those wins came against a fellow debuting fighter in Jarno Errens on another Paris card, where Gomis relied on his wrestling to win a low-volume decision with three takedowns landed and eight minutes of control time. However, it was Gomis that got taken down and controlled in his next fight, as Francis Marshall landed two takedowns with four minutes of control time. Gomis never attempted any takedowns of his own, but led in significant strikes 27-15 to squeak out a low-volume split-decision win.
Now 13-2 as a pro, Gomis has six wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2016 R2 heel hook in his fourth pro fight against a talented Morgan Charriere, with his one other loss ending in a decision in his 2016 pro debut. While 9 of Gomis’ 15 pro fights ended early, only two of his matches were stopped in round one (2-0), while five ended in round two (4-1), and two ended in third round TKO victories. His last four fights all made it to the third round, with two of those going the distance.
Overall, Gomis is a well rounded fighter who can compete both on the feet and mat, although we did nearly see him get submitted on the ground at the end of his UFC debut. He’s got good size, movement, and speed, making him a tough guy to hit, and he looks pretty strong in the clinch. Gomis trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris with Ciryl Gane and he’s still only 27 years old and should be improving between every fight. In his three UFC fights, he landed three of his five takedown attempts (60% accuracy), while his opponents got him down twice on 11 attempts (81.8% defense). All three of his UFC fights have been low volume and he only averages 2.62 SSL/min and 1.49 SSA/min. He’s yet to land more than 52 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorb more than 28.
Fight Prediction:
Gomis will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
While Gomis is undefeated in the UFC, he nearly got submitted in the third round in each of his first two UFC fights and did get submitted by Morgan Charriere back in 2016. Now he’s facing the toughest test of his career against a dangerous finisher in Brito who has seven submission wins on his record to go along with eight knockouts. Gomis will have the home crowd behind him and the larger cage combined with his height advantage should benefit him as he tries to evade the aggressive advances of Brito. However, it may only take one haymaker or backtake for Brito to close the show and Gomis will be in constant peril throughout the match, especially early on when Brito is fresh. If Gomis can control the distance and circle away from danger, it’s possible he could outlast Brito and win a close decision, but we like Brito’s chances of getting him down and submitting him in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Joanderson Brito SUB” at +250.
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DFS Implications:
Brito has landed five straight finishes in the opening two rounds of fights, averaging 107 DraftKings points in the process. After his first three UFC victories all ended in under three minutes, his last two both ended in the second round. He’s dangerous both on the feet and the mat and has been alternating knockouts and submissions over his current five-fight winning streak. His only loss in his last 18 matches ended in a decision in his UFC debut, so he’s also been durable, although has shown a somewhat suspect gas tank in the rare instances that he’s required a third round. While he’s generally looking to mix in takedowns and has landed at least one in all five of his fights to make it past the opening minute, he’s yet to land more than two takedowns in a UFC fight and also averages just 3.35 SSL/min. So despite his aggressive nature, when you combine his lower output with his dubious cardio, he’s given us no indication that he can score well without a finish. Supporting that notion, he only put up 36 DraftKings points in a decision loss in his UFC debut. Now he’ll be traveling into enemy territory to take on a much taller opponent who only averages 1.49 SSA/min and who comes in with an 81% takedown defense. The larger cage in Paris could also make it tougher for Brito to track Gomis down and even if Brito can find a finish he’ll still need to outscore the other high priced options to end up in the optimal. The only time he’s topped 108 DraftKings points was with the help of the Quick Win Bonus and three of his last four finishes scored 105 points or less. Ultimately, Brito does offer tons of finishing upside, but it’s not the easiest matchup and his salary is somewhat prohibitive. He’ll need a well timed finish in the first two rounds along with some help from the fighters priced around him. The odds imply Brito has a 74% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Gomis is undefeated in the UFC, but only averaged 64 DraftKings points in his three wins. His last fight was stopped in round three following some confusion as to whether or not a body kick was below the belt, but Gomis still only scored 69 points in what ultimately went down as a third round TKO victory. Prior to that, he scored just 42 and 80 points respectively in a pair of split decision wins. Now he’s facing an aggressive finisher who will be looking to land bombs and look for chokes, so we expect Gomis to once again come in with a more cautious approach, focussed on controlling the distance and avoiding damage. That’s terrible for DFS and will make it tough for him to score well without a well timed finish. Gomis will have the home crowd behind him and the larger cage could help him to evade Brito, but you don’t score points for defense. Maybe Brito will gas himself out going for the finish and Gomis can take over late, but he’s still unlikely to score well in that scenario. He is very affordably priced, so it’s possible he could still serve as a value play even in a lower scoring win, but this looks like a tough matchup for him with a high chance that he gets finished early. That leaves him as a low floor, low ceiling play in DFS. The odds imply Gomis has a 26% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Nassourdine Imavov
10th UFC Fight (6-2, NC)Imavov is coming off a somewhat controversial fourth round TKO win over Jared Cannonier, which ended in a quick stoppage on the feet. The momentum was definitely in Imavov’s favor and he had Cannonier hurt, but Cannonier was actually ahead on two of the three scorecards at that point and seemed to be surviving and recovering to some extent after getting rocked when the fight was stopped. Imavov finished ahead 82-64 in significant strikes and 2-1 in takedowns, but Cannonier was able to take him down once and control him along the fence for extended periods of time and finished with over six minutes of control time. Prior to that, Imavov won a five-round decision over Roman Dolidze, where he nearly finished Dolidze in the first round, but appeared to drain his gas tank going for the finish and slowed down after that. Dolidze was looking to clinch throughout the match, which also slowed things down. Imavov landed an illegal kick to the head of a downed opponent in round four, which resulted in a point deduction and caused one judge to score the fight a draw, while the other two had it for Imavov. Imavov’s previous fight ended in an unfortunate No Contest following an accidental clash of heads that caused a large cut above the eye of his opponent, Chris Curtis. Imavov was winning the fight up to that point, as he more than doubled Curtis up in significant strikes at 57-26. Imavov also became the first fighter to ever take Curtis down, landing three of his four attempts in just a round and a half, after Curtis defended all 35 of the attempts against him in his first six UFC fights. Following that No Contest, Imavov had been booked to face Ikram Aliskerov in October, but ended up pulling out of the fight two weeks prior. Before he fought Curtis, Imavov lost to Curtis’ teammate Sean Strickland in a January 2023 five-round decision. Imavov had been set to face Kelvin Gastelum there, but Gastelum dropped out and Strickland stepped in on short notice. So three of Imavov’s last four fights were scheduled to go five rounds and all of those made it into the championship rounds, with two going the distance.
Now 14-4 plus a No Contest as a pro, Imavov has six wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and four decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss coming in a R1 guillotine choke in his 2016 pro debut. His other three losses all ended in decisions. Imavov notably fought most of his career at 170 lb before moving up to 185 lb when he joined the UFC. His first nine finishes ended in the opening two rounds, with the first seven finishes of his career coming in round one, the next two ending in round two, and his most recent coming in round four.
Overall, Imavov is a crisp counter striker who can also mix in occasional grappling. He was born in Dagestan, but moved to France when he was nine, which is where he still lives. He trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris with Ciryl Gane and has shown improvements since joining the UFC, which makes sense considering he’s still just 29 years old. He has a solid left jab and at 6’3” he has good size for the Middleweight division, which makes it tougher to close the distance on him. One concern with him is that we’ve seen him get controlled along the fence at times in the past, which is how he lost to a fragile Phil Hawes. In Imavov’s nine UFC fights, he landed 9 of his 25 takedown attempts (36% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 27 attempts (74.1% defense). He likes to threaten guillotines when opponents try to take him down, although we haven’t seen him submit anybody since 2019. He’ll be fighting in front of his home crowd here as he takes on a talented grappler.
Brendan Allen
15th UFC Fight (12-2)Winner of seven straight, Allen is coming off a five-round split-decision win in a rematch against Chris Curtis, who came into the fight with an elite 92% takedown defense. However, Allen was able to take Curtis down six times on 13 attempts and control him for six minutes, while Curtis finished ahead 124-112 in significant strikes and 141-128 in total strikes. Curtis was also able to hurt Allen on the feet at multiple points, but then tore his hamstring in the final seconds of the match. Curtis notably stepped into that spot on a few weeks’ notice after Marvin Vettori dropped out. Allen’s only loss in his last 10 fights was in a late 2021 R2 TKO in his first matchup against Curtis. Since then, he submitted five of his last seven opponents and also won a pair of close decisions. Two of those submission wins notably came against fellow high-level grapplers in Paul Craig and Andre Muniz, showing that Allen’s grappling is good enough to compete with just about anybody on the mat.
Now 24-5 as a pro, Allen has five wins by TKO, 14 submissions, and five decision victories. He’s also been knocked out twice himself, both times in the second round, and submitted once, which occurred in his third pro fight against Trevin Giles back in 2016. Allen’s other two losses both went the distance in five-round LFA title fights against Anthony Hernandez and Eryk Anders. All five of his career losses were against current UFC fighters, but three of those occurred before he joined the UFC. Ten of his 14 UFC fights ended early (8-2), while he won all four of the decisions he’s been to with the organization. Seven of his eight UFC finishes ended by submission, with six of those coming via rear-naked choke, while he also had a ground and pound TKO victory over Tom Breese in his second UFC appearance. He’s yet to knock anyone out on the feet in the UFC and the last two times he knocked an opponent down, he finished them with a rear-naked choke.
Overall, Allen is a BJJ black belt and is most dangerous on the mat, but also has pretty decent striking. He’s shown a low fight IQ at multiple points in the past and often fails to take the path of least resistance, instead stubbornly looking to fight opponents where they’re the strongest. Sometimes he’ll wait until he gets rocked to look to grapple, although he did land a career-best six takedowns in his last fight. Between his 14 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 17 of his 36 takedown attempts (47.2% accuracy), while he was taken down by his opponents 12 times on 29 attempts (58.6% defense). He’s been going to a sports psychologist for the last couple of years so maybe that’s helping, but who knows. He’s still only 28 years old and trains at Kill Cliff FC, so he’s got a good team around him and appears to be consistently improving, but his chin and IQ remain a concern. He’s a fairly patient striker on the feet, averaging just 3.98 SSL/min and 3.83 SSA/min, and only twice has he landed more than 51 significant strikes in a fight. Now he’ll be traveling into enemy territory to take on a fellow surging young prospect.
Fight Prediction:
Imavov will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 75” reach.
This is a compelling matchup that easily could have headlined a lot of Fight Night cards and there was talk of it potentially being made five rounds even as the co-main event here, although that never materialized. Allen has a clear grappling advantage, but Imavov looks more durable and more dangerous on the feet. We’ve never questioned Allen’s grappling ability, but we do worry about his fight IQ and his reluctance to use his grappling at times. Imavov has struggled with being controlled along the fence at multiple points in his career, but does own a pretty solid 74% takedown defense. However, Allen’s last opponent, Chris Curtis, came in with a 92% takedown defense and Allen was still able to get him down six times. So there’s no real reason to think that Allen can’t land takedowns, it’s just a matter of whether or not he’ll try while he still has complete use of his faculties. That uncertainty combined with the crowd being behind Imavov is likely a driving factor in why Allen is a sizable underdog in this matchup. He’ll be at risk of getting knocked out anytime the fight remains standing, especially early on when Imavov is the most dangerous. And if this ends in a close decision there’s the potential for some home-cooking to edge things out for Imavov. However, Allen also has the potential to make this look easy if he can get his grappling going early on and either lock up another rear-naked choke or grind out a wrestling-heavy decision. So it’s a pretty volatile matchup, which generally leaves us looking to take the wider plus money side of things, which is Allen in this case. Allen has never fought to two straight decisions and we’ll say that continues here and he’s able to pull off the upset in a submission win.
Our favorite bet here is “Brendan Allen ML” at +187.
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DFS Implications:
Imavov has been a consistent but unspectacular DFS producer, averaging 88 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins. The only time he reached the century mark was in a five-round decision win where he scored exactly 100 DraftKings points. His recent fourth round TKO victory was “only” good for 90 points, while his two second round finishes returned scores of 98 and 94 points respectively. He also scored nowhere close to enough to being useful in his two three-round decision wins, which were good for 71 and 74 points. He’s struggled with being controlled along the fence and is now facing a talented grappler who has the potential to control and/or submit him. Imavov will need a well timed knockout to return value at his expensive price tag and from what he’s shown so far even a second round finish may not be quite enough. Working in his favor, Allen has been knocked out twice before and has shown the fight IQ of a drunken sailor at multiple points in the past. So maybe Allen will forgo his grappling for long enough that Imavov can find the knockout he needs, but Imavov is far from a safe play and has a narrow path to reaching a meaningful scoring ceiling. The odds imply Imavov has a 64% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Allen has averaged 98 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC wins, with six scores of 102 or more. He’s coming off the highest scoring win of his career, where he put up 119 points in a five-round decision win. However, now he’ll only have three rounds to work with and is traveling into enemy territory to face a tough opponent. Allen submitted four straight opponents leading up to his recent decision victory, although two of his last three finishes came in the third round and only returned DraftKings scores of 86 and 79 points respectively. And in his last two three-round decision wins, he only scored 83 and 68 DraftKings points. While another middling score here could be enough for him to serve as a value play at his cheap price tag, it’s also far from a sure thing that he would end up in the optimal with another late finish or a decision win. To really score well, he’ll either need a finish in the earlier rounds or to completely dominate this fight on the mat for the entire duration. And since he’s been reluctant to lean on his grappling at times in the past, we can’t trust him to control Imavov on the ground for 15 straight minutes. Allen also has the potential to get knocked out, leaving him with an unsafe floor in addition to his uncertain ceiling. Nevertheless, Allen’s high-level grappling leaves him with a good shot at locking up an early submission and he’ll still have some backdoor paths to sneaking into the optimal even in a longer fight. So he’s definitely our preferred play in this matchup and we’ll just have to hope that he shoots for a takedown before he’s half unconscious. The odds imply Allen has a 36% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Benoit Saint Denis
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Saint Denis will be looking to bounce back from a second round knockout loss to Dustin Poirier, who Saint Denis took down three times in a round and a half and controlled for nearly five minutes. Saint Denis also outlanded Poirier 50-28 in significant strikes before gassing out in round two and getting knocked out. Saint Denis later took to social media to confirm the speculation that he did indeed come in with a staph infection, which may have contributed to his cardio collapse. Prior to that, Saint Denis had finished five straight opponents in the first two rounds, after losing a Bloodsport style decision in his 2021 UFC debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. That fight should have been stopped in the second round as Saint Denis was getting mauled by Dos Santos, but the referee had other ideas and decided he’d prefer to see someone die that day. It was such a horribly officiated fight that the commission actually pulled the ref from his remaining duties on the card immediately after the match. That’s the only other loss of Saint Denis’ career, and it took place at 170 lb. Following the loss, he dropped down to 155 lb and submitted Niklas Stolze 92 seconds into the second round after nearly locking up a choke in the closing seconds of round one. Saint Denis then got to fight in front of his home Paris crowd for the first time in the UFC and looked to put on a show as he knocked out a short notice debuting opponent in Gabriel Miranda 16 seconds into round two and nearly finished him late in round one. After finishing two low-level opponents, Saint Denis then faced a tougher test in Ismael Bonfim and passed with flying colors as he locked up a submission late in the first round. For the record, all three of Bonfim’s previous career losses also ended in submissions so that has been a weakness for him. Saint Denis then returned to France for his next fight and put on another impressive performance, as he finished a really tough Thiago Moises in a late R2 TKO. Next, Saint Denis landed a 91 second head kick knockout against Matt Frevola, in front of Frevola’s home New York crowd. Before joining the UFC, Saint Denis had never lost a fight or required the judges, and had only even seen the third round once.
Now 13-2 as a pro, Saint Denis has four wins by KO/TKO and nine submission victories. His last knockout win ended in round one, after his previous three all ended in round two. He has six first round submissions, two in round two, and one in round three. Five of his last eight early wins ended in round two, with the other three ending in round one. He’s coming off the first early loss of his career in a second round knockout, with his one other loss ending in a decision in his 2021 UFC debut. Saint Denis has competed anywhere from 145 lb to 185 lb, but was primarily fighting at 165 lb and 170 lb before dropping down to 155 lb after his UFC debut at 170 lb.
This will only be the 2nd five-round fight of Saint Denis’ career and the first ended in a second round knockout loss to Dustin Poirier. So Saint Denis has never been to the championship rounds and he’s only even seen the third round twice in his career, with just one of those making it past the 13 minute mark.
Overall, Saint Denis is an aggressive finisher who pushes a crazy pace with little regard for defense. He throws good slicing elbows and lots of body shots, but does his best work on the mat. He started training in Judo as a kid, where he eventually earned his black belt, and was also in the French Special Forces. In addition to his Judo background, he’s a BJJ brown belt. He tends to leave his chin up high and mostly relies on his durability to survive striking exchanges. He averages 5.70 SSA/min and 4.98 SSA/min. In fairness to him, he’s still only 28 years old and hasn’t even entered his prime yet, so he should be improving all the time. In his seven UFC fights, Saint Denis landed 16 takedowns on 43 attempts (37.2% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 4 of 13 attempts (69.2% defense). We’ve seen Saint Denis slow down after a round and a half or so in the past, including in his recent loss, so it will be interesting to see how (or if) he manages his cardio in this matchup.
Renato Moicano
17th UFC Fight (11-5)Moicano is coming in on a three-fight winning streak and only has one loss in his last six outings, which was when he stepped into a five-round fight on short notice against Rafael dos Anjos in 2022 and lost a decision. Moicano’s most recent win came in a second round TKO against an incredibly dangerous Jalin Turner. Moicano got dropped badly late in round one, but Turner made the mistake of thinking it was a walk-off knockout and didn’t go in for the kill, allowing Moicano to survive the round and then turn the tables and eventually find a ground and pound finish. Just two months before that, Moicano won a wrestling-heavy decision over Drew Dober, who has been prone to getting outwrestled and submitted throughout his career. While Moicano was unable to get Dober out of there, he was able to take him down three times and control him for ten and a half minutes, while also finishing ahead in total strikes 142-36. While Moicano has already fought twice in 2024, he didn’t compete at all in 2023, after submitting Brad Riddell in the first round of a late 2022 fight. He had then been scheduled to face Arman Tsarukyan in April 2023, but ended up pulling out with a knee injury that required surgery. One thing to note is that all of Moicano’s recent success has come against strikers.
Now 19-5-1 as a pro, Moicano has one TKO victory (R2 2024), 10 submission wins, and eight decision victories. Four of those submissions came in round one, five ended in round two, and the other occurred in the third round of his 2010 pro debut. All 10 of his submission wins ended in rear-naked chokes. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once (R3 2017), and has one decision loss, which occurred in his short notice five-round fight against RDA. All three of his KO/TKO losses occurred in 2019 and 2020 in under six minutes, with two ending in round one. Moicano fought at 145 lb until 2020 when he moved up to 155 lb after getting knocked out in each of his last two fights at 145 lb. He’s gone 6-2 since moving up a weight class, with five of those wins ending in the first two rounds. Eight of his last 11 fights ended in either submission wins (5) or knockout losses (3).
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Moicano’s career. The first was in 2019 at 145 lb and ended in a quick 58 second first round knockout loss to The Korean Zombie. The second was a short notice 160 lb Catchweight match against RDA in 2022, where Moicano stepped in on a few days’ notice and lost a decision.
Overall, Moicano is a BJJ black belt and a great grappler, but has been prone to getting knocked out on the feet. For years we questioned his fight IQ, as he would stand and trade with opponents instead of leaning on his wrestling. However, he’s actually been more willing to take the path of least resistance and lean on his wrestling lately and he landed 13 takedowns on 31 attempts since moving up to 155 lb, after landing just one total takedown on just two attempts in his last four fights at 145 lb. He has a 45% career takedown accuracy and a 72% defense, while averaging 4.38 SSL/min and 3.68 SSA/min. He won the last six fights where he secured a takedown, while going just 1-4 in the last five matches where he failed to land any. And that one win was in his third most recent fight where he shot for a takedown but then ended up on the back of Riddell without officially securing the takedown.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’11”, but Moicano will have a 1” reach advantage, while Saint Denis is seven years younger than the 35-year-old Moicano.
Both of these two are fun fighters with a no-fucks-given attitude who come from grappling backgrounds. While Moicano has been on a roll lately, all of his recent wins have come against strikers who he could outclass on the mat. Now he’ll face a fellow grappler and Moicano will have a much tougher time dominating this fight on the ground. One advantage that Moicano does have is that he’s shown the ability to go five rounds, while Saint Denis typically starts to slow down after about a round and a half. So things could get interesting if Moicano can survive the first two rounds, but we’re not convinced that he can. We expect Saint Denis to be looking to put on a show in front of his home French crowd and we like his chances of finishing Moicano within 10 minutes, most likely by knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Benoit Saint Denis R1/2 KO” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Saint Denis is coming off the first early loss of his career, but had previously been wreaking havoc since dropping down to 155 lb following a loss in his UFC debut at 170 lb. All five of his UFC wins ended in the opening two rounds, where he averaged 123 DraftKings points. He scored 109 or more points in each of his last four wins and topped 135 in half of those. Both of those nuclear scores came in front of his home French crowd. He’ll once again be fighting at home here as he takes on a chinny grappler in Moicano who’s been finished in four of his five pro losses. That leaves Saint Denis with another massive scoring ceiling and a good chance of ending this quickly. However, there are some concerns with him as he’s shown a questionable gas tank and poor striking defense. He’s also going up against a fellow grappler, which could leave him more reliant on landing a knockout in the first two rounds to pull off the victory. He’ll also be incredibly popular, leaving some merit in looking for ways he fails when building tournament lineups. With all that said, the most likely outcome is that he finishes Moicano in the opening two rounds and puts up another huge score. The odds imply Saint Denis has a 72% chance to win, a 59% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Moicano has averaged 97 DraftKings points in his 11 UFC wins, with six of his last seven victories ending in the first two rounds. He’s also shown the ability to score well on DraftKings with his grappling even when he can’t find a finish, as he put up 97 points in his last three-round decision win. However, all of his recent wins have come against strikers and now he’ll take on a fellow grappler. The last time Moicano faced anyone with a ground game was when he got dominated for five-rounds by an aging Rafael dos Anjos in 2022, although in fairness to Moicano he stepped into that matchup on very short notice. Nevertheless, this still looks like a tough stylistic matchup for Moicano and he’s also traveling into enemy territory. Another concern with Moicano is his durability and he’s been finished in four of his five pro losses, with three of those ending in knockouts. He also nearly got knocked out in his last fight, but got bailed out when Jalin Turner thought he had a walk off finish and casually strolled away after dropping Moicano. So there’s a really high chance that Moicano gets finished quickly in this matchup, leaving him with a very low scoring floor. However, Saint Denis has shown a pretty suspect gas tank and if Moicano can simply survive the first two rounds he could be in a good position to take over down the stretch. And at Moicano’s cheap price tag, it’s really hard to see him getting left out of the winner if he pulls off the upset in this uptempo matchup. The odds imply Moicano has a 28% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!