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Fighter Notes:
Fight #10
Marc-Andre Barriault
5th UFC Fight (0-3, NC)Barriault joined the UFC in May 2019 with an 11-1 pro record and on an eight fight winning streak. Eight of his 11 wins had impressively come by KO, including five in R1 and three in R2. His other four fights had all gone the distance with his only loss coming in a 2015 decision in his fourth pro fight. His first four knockouts notably came against less experienced opponents, who entered with records of 0-2, 2-2, 3-5, 1-0, but the next four came against somewhat tougher fighters who entered with records of 7-5, 6-1, 9-3, 7-1.
He made his UFC debut against a tough wrestler in Andrew Sanchez who ended up winning a close 29-28 unanimous decision. Sanchez narrowly won the striking battle, outlanding Barriault 72-69 in significant strikes while adding two takedowns on eight attempts along with six minutes of control time.
Next, Barriault took on Krzysztof Jotko, and again narrowly lost the striking battle, with the total significant strikes landed coming in at 40-39. Each fighter landed one takedown, Barriault on three attempts and Jotko on seven. Jotko also finished with nearly five minutes of control time, and ended up winning a very close split decision.
Now 0-2 in the UFC and desperate for a win, Barriault took on a durable Jun Yong Park and once again lost the striking battle, but this time by a wider margin a result of 77-51 in significant strikes. Park was also able to get Barriault to the mat 5 times on 10 attempts and won a unanimous decision.
Most recently, Barriault took on a suspect Oskar Piechota, who was coming off three straight early losses. Barriault was able to extend that streak to four with a late R2 KO just nine seconds before the horn. However, the result was overturned to a “No Contest” when Barriault tested positive for a banned substance, and he was then handed a nine month suspension. He had the suspension reduced to six months, based on the plea of unintentional use through contamination—which has anyone ever not claimed this?
A pure boxer, Barriault is an average one-dimensional UFC talent, who relies on landing knockouts to win fights. He has the striking ability and power to capitalize against low-level opponents, like Oskar Piechota, but seems unlikely to excel in tougher spots. He’s gone 2 for 7 on takedowns in the UFC, but doesn’t appear to be a submission threat on the mat.
Abu Azaitar
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Azaitar is coming off a 32 month layoff following a win in his 2018 UFC debut, where he defeated 39-year-old Vitor Miranda in a decision. However, for context, Miranda notably came in on a two fight skid and hasn’t fought since, appearing to have retired following the fight.
Azaitar had been scheduled to fight twice in 2020 (4/11 vs. Alessio Di Chirico & 10/10 vs. Joaquin Buckley), but withdrew from each. Azaitar also notably didn’t fight at all in 2017 and only the one time in 2018, meaning he’s fought just once since October 2016. With just one fight in nearly the last five years and now 35 years old, it’s hard to know what to expect from him in this spot. He’s impressively gone 9-0-1 in his last 10 fights and 14-1-1 in his 16 matches since losing his 2009 pro debut via DQ for an eye poke. His only loss in his last 16 fights was a 2012 R1 KO resulting from a doctor’s stoppage following the round. His last three fights and five of his last six have notably ended in decisions. Azaitar knocked out UFC fighter Jack Marshman in just 34 seconds back in 2014, although Marshman has now lost five of his last seven fights, so maybe that carries little significance.
Nothing really stood out in Azaitar’s 2018 debut. He outlanded Miranda 48-19 in significant strikes, while landing one takedown on his lone attempt. He was also taken down three times on four attempts before winning a unanimous decision. He seemed like a decent striker in terms of power, but looked a little wild at times. Nothing was overly impressive in terms of his ground game and he didn’t put up much resistance to being taken down. He also looked exhausted by the end of the fight.
Of his 14 career wins, seven have come by KO, including six in R1, and he also has a first round submission win via Rear-Naked Choke back in his second pro fight in 2011. His other six wins all ended in decisions.
Fight Prediction:
Barriault will have a 4” height advantage but Azaitar will have a 2” reach advantage.
This sets up as a striking battle between two fighters who have combined for just a single submission win in 33 pro fights. They’ve also combined for just a single early loss, showing their both tough to finish. Barriault has notably fought five times since Azaitar last stepped inside the Octagon, so it will be interesting to see if Azaitar starts slow while he works off any potential ring rust. We expect low to moderate striking volume in a fight that most likely ends in a close 29-28 decision. Barriault could be fighting for his job after going 0-3 with a “No Contest” and a suspension so far in the UFC, while Azaitar is simply looking to make his way back after years away. We slightly prefer Barriault to win this one but he notably has lost all three of his UFC decisions, while Azaitar hasn’t lost since 2012.
Betting the “Fight Goes the Distance” at -166 looks like the safest option, while “Barriault Wins by Decision” at +210 is also in play. “Barriault Wins by KO or Decision” at -110 is another line worth considering. If you want to take a shot on something here, check out “Barriault Wins by R2 KO” at +1200.
DFS Implications:
While the middle-of-the-road pricing may entice people to play one of these two fighters, this fight more likely than not busts for DFS purposes.
Barriault lacks the striking volume (4.25 SSL/min) and takedowns (0.6 TD/15 min) to score well in decisions, which he clearly demonstrated in his first three UFC fights, with DraftKings scores of 22, 29 and 29 in his three losing decisions. Even if he had won all of those fights he still would have scored just 52, 59 and 59 points. His recent R2 KO win was overturned and interestingly doesn’t show up as a win on DraftKings (where it actually scored 118 points, but is listed at 48 points), but the actual score does show up on FanDuel. That will likely slightly lower his DraftKings ownership, while raising his FanDuel ownership. He’s also the cheapest favorite on the card on FanDuel, which will further bolster his ownership over there. Looking deeper in that score, he was fortunate to get the finish right at the end of the second round, as had it come 10 seconds later in the fight (to open R3) it would have scored just 93 DraftKings points. Although on a 10 fight card, and at his mid-tier price, that potentially could still be enough to crack the winning lineup. Either way, Barriault clearly needs a finish to score well and his ITD line is just +300 (21% true odds), while his R1 win line is +700 (9% true odds). That seems about right with all things considered.
Azaitar is actually very similar to Barriault for DFS purposes. He’s similarly reliant on knockouts to score well, doesn’t add much of anything in the grappling game, has fought mostly to decisions recently, and is priced nearly the same on DraftKings and identically on FanDuel. He also has very similar odds of landing a finish, with his ITD line at +360 (19% true odds) and his R1 win line at +750 (9% true odds). Assuming the line doesn’t flip by lock, Azaitar should be considerably lower owned on FanDuel as the dog with the same price as the favorite, which is one of the few reasons we can justify having any exposure to him over there. With that said, Barriault has never been finished early, and Azaitar is coming off a 32 month layoff so it’s really tough to get excited about playing him.
Fight #9
Omar Morales
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off the first loss of his career, Morales recently dropped a decision to Giga Chikadze after starting his career off 10-0 and 2-0 in the UFC. Morales made his 2019 UFC debut with an 8-0 pro record that included seven finishes. However, the majority of those wins came against very inexperienced opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0 , 1-1 , 0-2 , 3-0, 12-2. So his first six opponents came in with one combined win, and to this day, still only have one combined win. His 7th opponent did come in 3-0, but hadn't fought any real competition in those three fights and now hasn't fought again since losing to Morales. So really we should be more focussed on Morales' last four fights where he faced legitimate competition.
Morales’ last finish came by R2 KO from leg kicks on DWCS to get his shot in the UFC. However, since joining the UFC, Morales has fought to three straight decisions, winning the first two. Interestingly, after fighting his entire career at 155 lb, at age 34 Morales dropped down to 145 lb in his most recent fight and proceeded to suffer his first career loss. Despite that, he’s decided to stay at 145 lb, where this next fight will take place. It’s unclear what prompted the change, considering he was undefeated at 155 lb and seemed like he had a good frame for the division.
All three of Morales’ UFC fights have been low volume stand up striking battles. Neither Morales nor any of his opponents have landed more than 65 significant strikes in a fight, and there has been just one takedown in any of those matches, which Morales landed in his debut on his lone takedown attempt in the UFC.
Morales throws violent kicks, which we mentioned he used to get a finish on DWCS, and then he also split open the shin of Gabriel Benitez in his second UFC bout. However, in his last fight it was Morales who got his leg chewed up by Giga Chikadze, who nearly finished Morales in the third round after knocking him down with an overhand right. Morales recovered, and hung on to lose a decision.
Shane Young
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Young is looking to bounce back after a violent 76 second KO loss last September following an extended layoff. His previous fight was all the way back in February 2019, when he won a high-volume decision.
Young originally joined the UFC back in 2017 on a five fight winning streak and made his short notice debut against Alexander Volkanovski. Young survived to lose a decision, which we suppose could be taken as a moral victory in such a tough matchup. He bounced back from the loss with a late R2 KO in his next fight against Ronaldo Dy, who entered the match with a 1-2 UFC record and was released by the organization afterwards.
Following his first UFC win, Young took on Austin Arnett, who at the time had lost three of his last four fights and has now lost five of his last six. Young defeated Arnett in a high-volume decision, and then Arnett was also released from the UFC just like Dy. After winning two in a row against opponents on their way out of the UFC, Young most recently took on Ludovit Klein, who was making his UFC debut. Klein infamously missed weight badly and Israel Adesanya is still pissed about it. Klein knocked Young out in just 76 seconds, with a violent head kick followed by a barrage of punches. Klein looks like a solid prospect and throws lethal head kicks, so this loss is somewhat understandable.
Prior to the recent KO loss, Young had never been finished in his prior 17 matches, with all four of his losses coming by decision. On the other side of things, 10 of his 13 pro wins have come early with six KOs and four submissions. Young has a background in boxing and kickboxing and doesn’t offer much in the grappling department other than an occasional Rear-Naked Choke.
Fight Prediction:
Morales will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Nothing really stands out with Young and Morales looks like the faster, stronger fighter. Young generally relies on pressure and volume to win fights opposed to overwhelming opponents with speed or power, so his best chance is likely to wear down Morales. Both of Young’s UFC wins have come against struggling opponents and we’ve yet to see him beat anyone decent. It’s hard to see Young being the first person to finish Morales here, so he’ll need to point his way to a decision to win. Morales hasn’t finished anyone recently either, but at least he appears to have the power to do so. With that said, we expect that this fight ends in a closer decision.
We like betting that this fight goes the distance at -140.
DFS Implications:
With low striking volume and no grappling stats, Morales is entirely reliant on landing a finish to score well in DFS. Further supporting that, his DraftKings scores in his three decisions were 16, 55 and 74. This fight has a 64% chance to end in a decision, which means that Morales will most likely bust.
Young has landed over 100 significant strikes in each of his two UFC wins, but Morales absorbs the slate’s 7th fewest number of significant strikes on average and no one has ever landed more than 65 on him. If Morales continues to struggle at 145 lb, maybe Young surprises us and puts on another high-volume performance. He’s scored 89 and 122 points in his two UFC wins, so he has shown a solid ceiling, even if it was against struggling opponents. The odds imply Young has a 37% chance to win this fight.
Fight #8
Michal Oleksiejczuk
6th UFC Fight (2-2, NC)Oleksiejczuk came into the UFC in 2017 with a 12-2 record and on a nine fight winning streak. However, after winning his 2017 UFC debut by decision over Khalil Rountree in 2017, Oleksiejczuk tested positive for a banned estrogen blocker and was suspended for a year along with the results of the fight being overturned to a “No Contest.”
After 14 months away, he got back inside the Octagon against Gian Villante and finished him in the first round with a body shot. Dan Hardy perfectly summarized the look on Villante’s face after absorbing the shot to the liver as, “He looks like he swallowed a hard candy and he’s not sure what to do with it.”
He then took on Gadzhimurad Antigulov, who looked like he was fighting on a frozen pond as he lunged forward towards Oleksiejczuk. That resulted in Oleksiejczuk scoring three knockdowns and a KO in a fight that lasted just 44 seconds.
At that point Oleksiejczuk was 2-0 in the UFC, not counting the win that was overturned to a “No Contest,” and hadn’t lost in his last 12 fights going back to 2014. He then took on a much larger Ovince St. Preux in 2019. Oleksiejczuk brought the fight to OSP early in the match, but OSP did a better job of controlling the distance early in the second round. Thenn with just over two minutes gone, OSP was able to take Oleksiejczuk down and submit him with the good ol’ St. Preux Choke.
Coming off his first loss in nearly five years, Oleksiejczuk most recently got his toughest test to date with Jimmy Crute, who immediately looked to take the fight to the ground. Crute amazingly landed eight takedowns in a fight that lasted just three and a half minutes before he submitted Oleksiejczuk.
Oleksiejczuk is a little undersized for the Light Heavyweight division and broadcasters are constantly moving him down to Middleweight. That could be part of the reason why three of his four pro losses have come by submissions, as he sometimes gets bodied by larger opponents. Two of those three submission losses have notably come in the first round, while the other came in the second. His only other pro loss was a 2014 R1 KO. Of his 14 pro wins, 11 have come early, with 10 KOs and one submission. He has been to four decisions in his 19 pro fights, but two of those came in his first two career matches back in 2014, with the other two occuring in 2016 and 2017. His last four fights have taken a total of 13 minutes and one second, with three ending in the first round and one ending in the second. Six of his last eight fights haven’t made it out of the first round.
Oleksiejczuk landed two takedowns on three attempts in his 2017 UFC debut, but hasn’t attempted one in his last four fights. He seems content with turning fights into boxing matches, and he gets a like minded opponent in this next bout.
UPDATE: Oleksiejczuk made weight with no issues but looked a little plump on the scales.
Modestas Bukauskas
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Bukauskas made his UFC debut in July 2020 and got a slightly bizarre R1 TKO stoppage after the round ended. His opponent, Andreas Michailidis, shot for a takedown with under 10 seconds remaining in the round and Bukauskas landed several elbows that looked just barely legal to the side/back of Michailidis’ head. As the horn sounded, Michailidis lay hunched over, grasping the back of his head, right next to the door to the cage. The cornermen entered and the ref told Michailidis he had to get up so Michailidis began to sit up, but went to lean against what he thought was the cage. Instead he leaned against an open door and fell backwards, and the ref immediately stopped the fight. It appeared that he would have had a chance to push off the cage and stand up, had the door not been open—but he also didn’t look entirely there so who knows. That was Bukauskas’ seventh straight win, all coming early, with five first round finishes. After winning a decision in his 2015 pro debut, his last 13 fights have all ended early, with eight ending in the first round—including all three of his losses (2 KOs and 1 Leg Lock Submission).
Following the win in his debut, Bukauskas took on Jimmy Crute, who had just submitted Oleksiejczuk in his previous match. Crute made short work of Bukauskas, knocking him out in just 121 seconds.
Bukauskas has eight wins by KO and two by submission. Both submission wins came by Rear-Naked Choke in back-to-back 2018 fights, but he primarily looks like a striker, and has yet to attempt a takedown in his two albeit short UFC fights.
Bukauskas did look susceptible to being taken down prior to joining the UFC, however that’s unlikely to matter in this match as both guys seem to prefer to fight standing up. His last three fights have all ended in R1, as have nine of his last 11, and his last six matches all ended with KOs.
Fight Prediction:
Bukauskas will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
Both of these fighters were finished by a really tough Jimmy Crute in the first round of their last respective fights. Bukauskas likes to throw a lot of kicks, while Oleksiejczuk is primarily a boxer. When you combine Bukauskas’ kick heavy fighting style with his 4” reach advantage, it will be important for Oleksiejczuk to close the distance to be successful here. Both of these two have proven themselves to be dangerous strikers, but Oleksiejczuk’s chin has held up better so far in the UFC. He has looked vulnerable to being submitted, but it’s unlikely that’s how Bukauskas will be looking to end the fight. We expect a stand-up striking battle and both of these guys move well on their feet. This sets up as an exciting brawl that likely ends with an early knockout. Oleksiejczuk has proven to be the more durable fighter, and we think he likely gets the win here, but Bukauskas is definitely live.
There are a lot of lines to like in this fight, all based around the idea we see an early knockout. “Oleksiejczuk Wins by R1 KO” at +490, “Oleksiejczuk Wins by R2 KO” at +950, “Bukauskas Wins by R1 KO” at +1000, “Bukauskas Wins by R2 KO” at +1300, “Fight Ends in KO” at -110, “Fight Doesn't Go the Distance” at -160, and “Fight Ends in R1” at +220 all look solid.
DFS Implications:
The unreplicable 148 point DraftKings score that Oleksiejczuk put up against Antigulov on the back of three lightning quick knockdowns in a 44 second KO had far more to do with Antigulov’s psychotic fighting style than anything Oleksiejczuk does especially well. Oleksiejczuk has just one knockdown in his other four UFC fights combined. WIth that said, Oleksiejczuk lands an above average number of significant strikes and has a history of pushing the pace and landing finishes. When you combine that with Bukauskas’ aggressive fighting style and the fact that Bukauskas’ last 13 fights have also ended early, this looks like a powder keg for DFS scoring. The only concern is that we don’t expect any takedowns or grappling to boost scores if this fight lasts longer than expected. Therefore we’re relying on an early finish for this to produce a high scoring winner, but we’d be very surprised if this fight made it to the judges. The bookmakers agree, setting the odds on the fight ending early at -175 (61% true odds). Oleksiejczuk’s ITD line is set at +150 (37% true odds), while his R1 win line is set at +350 (16% true odds). Oleksiejczuk scored just 78 points on both DraftKings and FanDuel, coincidentally, in his lone UFC decision win (which was later overturned to a No Contest).
Bukauskas is in a similar spot to Oleksiejczuk, except he’s less likely to win and because of that has a cheaper DFS price tag, which gives him a lower bar for what constitutes a usable score in DFS. Both guys are pure strikers who are reliant on a finish to score well and just like Oleksiejczuk, we’re not expecting Bukauskas to look to take this fight to the ground. With that said, we haven’t seen much of him in the UFC, so you never know when a young fighter will add a wrinkle to their game. His ITD line checks in at +280 (24% true odds), while his R1 win line is just +650 (10% true odds). Oleksiejczuk’s chin has held up well and his only career KO loss was back in 2014, making things tougher for Bukauskas. Oleksiejczuk has been far more vulnerable on the ground and Bukauskas does have a pair of submission wins on his record (both by R1 Rear-Naked CHoke in 2018), but none in his last six fights. We prefer Oleksiejczuk in this fight, but Bukauskas is a high-upside dog, which is generally all you can ask for.
Fight #7
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)After impressively starting his pro career 14-1, Abubakar has now gone 1-2-1 in his last four fights and is coming off a 16 month layoff following a first round submission loss in his November 2019 UFC debut. Abubakar was winning the fight after taking his opponent, David Zawada, down less than a minute into the match, but got caught with a Triangle Choke from Zawada’s dangerous guard. Zawaba has said that the Triangle Choke is his favorite submission and proved it in that spot.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov has been training with his cousin Khabib for essentially his entire life as they lived together growing up. You can definitely see some similarities in their wrestling, but don’t expect the second coming of Khabib here. With that said, similar to his cousin, Abubakar looks like his preferred way to win fights is by dominating control time and exerting heavy top pressure. While he hasn’t mastered the art, he has shown he’s fully capable of executing the game plan, which was evident in his most recent win against Jonatan Westin back in 2018, where Abubakar spent almost the entire fight in top position.
All three of Abubakar’s career losses have come early, including a 2014 R1 KO against UFC fighter Magomed Mustafaev, a 2018 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission, and then the R1 Triangle Choke Submission in his UFC debut. On the other side of things, his last three wins and five of his last six have all ended in decisions. Of his 15 total career wins, six have come by KO and four have been by submission, but his last KO victory came in 2016 and his last submission win was back in 2014. Also notable, 8 of his 10 finishes came in his first eight pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 8-11, 4-21-1, 0-1, 4-3, 0-1, 1-1 and 0-1, so there’s definitely some padding going on there. His other two more recent finishes came against a guy who’s lost 8 of his last 9 fights (7 early) and an opponent who’s been knocked out in the first round in 2 of his most recent 4 fights. So if you’re counting on his finishing ability, you’re likely barking up the wrong tree.
From a narrative standpoint, you would think the UFC is financially motivated to milk the Nurmagomedov name for all it’s worth and that they want to see Abubakar succeed here—which is likely why they paired him up with Jared Gooden.
Jared Gooden
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Gooden is coming off a decision loss in his UFC debut to a 38-year-old Alan Jouban, who has fought in 13 UFC contests but amazingly landed 25% of his total career significant strikes in that one fight against Gooden.
While most fighters are out there trying to protect their head, Gooden seems to protect his hands with his face. He absorbed a ridiculous 116 shots to the head from the previously struggling Jouban, who had been spending more time in the broadcast booth than the Octagon recently. While we know Gooden can make strikers look good, it remains to be seen if he’ll similarly bring out the best in wrestlers.
Prior to losing his UFC debut, Gooden had won his previous three fights, all in the first two rounds, with two submissions and one KO. However, he’s just 4-3 in his last seven matches. He’s 17-5 as a pro with finishes in 13 of his 17 wins. Seven of those were by KO and six ended in submissions. He’s only been finished early once in his career, which came in a 2019 53 second R1 KO, where he was absolutely dominated by a larger opponent.
Gooden normally fights at 170 lb but moved up to 185 lb for a three fight period in 2019-2020, until he dropped back to 170 lb for his last two fights. His lone career KO loss came in his first fight at 185 lb against a noticeably bigger opponent in Bruno Oliveira.
UPDATE: Gooden originally missed weight, coming in a half pound over the limit, but was able to hit to mark with the ezra hour to reweigh.
Fight Prediction:
Gooden will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
Gooden showed he has no problem taking part in a brawl in his UFC debut when he absorbed 168 significant strikes, while landing 100 of his own, but we haven’t seen much of his wrestling. He did notably almost get choked out with a late Guillotine Submission attempt in his last fight, but was saved by the final horn. Looking at both his UFC debut and his previous fights, Gooden’s takedown defense has been decent, but we’ve yet to see him go up against anyone with UFC level grappling skills. This fight will likely come down to whether or not Gooden can stay on his feet and/or get up after being taken down. With that said, we expect Nurmagomedov to take Gooden down and keep him there as he grinds out a smothering decision win.
“Nurmagomedov Wins by Decision” at +155 is our favorite bet here. You might also want to consider his submission line at +550, but he hasn’t landed a submission since 2014 and Gooden has never been submitted, so it’s really more of a hedge against the decision bet. If Gooden does win, it likely comes early, so his ITD line at +480 is also worth considering.
DFS Implications:
Nurmagomedov is one of the biggest favorites on the slate, despite losing his UFC debut and now coming off a 16 month layoff. That tells you a lot of what the oddsmakers think about Jared Gooden. Nurmagomedov looks like a much better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, as his path to victory is racking up control time and landing ground strikes. He would definitely need a finish to score well on FanDuel. His ITD line comes in at +190 (29% true odds), while his R1 win line is just +500 (12% true odds). His last knockout was back in 2016 and his last submission win was all the way back in 2014. This doesn’t look like a great spot for him to get a finish, therefore we think he’s essentially a DraftKings specific play on this slate.
Gooden wins this fight by stuffing takedowns and winning the striking battle or by getting the finish, which keeps him in the DFS discussion as a high-upside dog, but with a below average chance of winning—32% to be exact based on the odds. He should still be owned well below that number, keeping him in play on both DFS sites. His ITD line is +500 (14% true odds), while his R1 win line is just +1000 (7%). His last four wins have all come early, but all against a lower level of competition. The most likely way this fight plays out is that Nurmagomedov controls Gooden on the ground for the entire time, which will leave you questioning why in the hell you played Gooden in the first place. However, if Gooden can stay on his feet, then we expect him to boost his FanDuel score with takedowns defended, so he looks like a better play over there.
Fight #6
Fabio Cherant
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut, Cherant stepped into this fight on Wednesday after William Knight dropped out of this already rescheduled fight.
Cherant just went pro in February 2018, and comes in with a 7-1 record with six of those fights ending early. His only loss came on DWCS in 2019 against Aleksa Camur, who’s 1-1 in the UFC now and actually recently lost to Knight (who dropped out of this fight). Prior to his DWCS appearance, Cherant was 4-0 with all of his wins coming by submission in the first two rounds, including his first three in R1. However, for context those came against opponents who entered with records of 0-3, 1-1, 1-5 and 0-0.
In his DWCS fight, Camur outlanded Cherant 44-7 in significant strikes before landing a second round KO by flying knee. No takedowns were attempted in the fight and it was primarily just Cherant circling away from Camur.
Following the loss, Cherant joined the LFA where he landed another first round submission, this time against Erick Murray, who after that loss has now been finished in four of his last six fights. Cherant notably missed weight badly in that match, coming in at 213.6 lb for the 205 lb fight and claiming “quarantine took its toll”. Cherant landed a few early strikes and then grabbed the neck of Murray when he shot in for a takedown. He was able to finish him with an Anaconda Choke moments later.
Cherant won a three round decision in his next match, but notably missed weight again, coming in at 209 lb. He took on 3-0 Yu Ji in that fight, who had fought his three previous fights at 185 lb and had never been in a fight that lasted longer than three minutes. By the end of the fight Ji looked exhausted and was barely throwing any strikes or really even putting up much of an effort. Cherant loves going for Guillotine Chokes and attempted another one early in this match. He easily won a unanimous decision against the undersized opponent.
In his most recent match, which took place just six weeks ago, Cherant took on his most experienced opponent in Myron Dennis, who entered the fight with an 18-7 record. This match went the full 25 minutes in an LFA title fight for the vacant Light Heavyweight belt. Cherant finally made weight for this fight coming in at 204.8 lb. His striking looked somewhat improved in the match, but his defense still left something to be desired. He landed one of two takedown attempts, but really wasn’t looking to take the fight to the ground much and even allowed Dennis to get back to his feet opposed to keeping him grounded in the 5th round. After the fight he clearly said, “I think I broke my hand” but we never heard anything else about that. He was understandably very emotional after the fight, following the loss of his Mom just three weeks earlier.
While all five of Cherant’s finishes have come by submission, he’s really more of an opportunistic submission threat than someone that hunts to submit his opponents. Any time an opponent tries to take him down he immediately looks for a Guillotine Choke, which is how he’s finished most of his submission wins. He doesn’t look for many takedowns and is more of a counter puncher than anything else. He has okay power, but doesn’t throw a ton of volume and has a below average striking defense. He also stands a little flat footed and doesn’t look very elusive.
UPDATE: Cherant missed weight coming in a half pound over the limit.
Alonzo Menifield
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Menifield’s had been scheduled to face William Knight, where the line opened as a -105 pick ‘em but Menifield was slightly bet up to a -115 favorite, but the matchup was canceled for a 2nd straight time due to COVID. It had originally been scheduled for February 27th.
After starting his pro career 9-0, Menifield is now coming off back-to-back losses so it will be interesting to see how he responds. Both losses came in tough matchups, with Devin Clark using his wrestling to keep Menifield locked up in the clinch, and OSP using his size, experience and power to simply outclass Menifield. For the first time in Menifield’s UFC career, he will be the more experienced fighter in this upcoming matchup.
Ten of his 11 pro fights have ended early, nine by KO and one by submission. Seven of his nine finishes have come in the first round, including his last four. Menifield is a former college, CFL and Arena League football player. His explosive power is evident, but he has struggled with cardio later in fights and has no grappling game.
Menifield does have an 85% takedown defense in the UFC, including defending 9 of Clark’s 10 attempts. So while he’s struggled at times to break out of the clinch, he’s dones a good job staying on his feet. However, Menifield will need to expand his game from a one-dimensional power puncher if he wants to last in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Menifield will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Menifield has struggled in his last two fights, but now gets an easier matchup against an opponent making his short notice UFC debut and fighting for the second time in six weeks. If Menifield can’t win this fight then the UFC might as well just cut him immediately, and Menifield likely knows that. So fighting for his job against a less experienced UFC newcomer, you would expect him to come out hungry for a win. This sets up well for Menifeld to land an early knockout against an opponent with a poor striking defense, and who’s grappling game is more defensive than offensive. Menifield is the far more explosive fighter and has never been submitted, it’s hard to see Cherant winning this fight.
“Menifield Wins by R1 KO” at +230 looks like the play here.
DFS Implications:
DraftKings pricing was released when Menifield was a pick ‘em against Knight so his price is just $8,100. Now as a -275 favorite, look for him to be the most popular fighter on the slate. If his pricing were released with his current matchup/odds he would be priced right around $9,100 on DraftKings. So this sets up as both an exceptional value play, and because of that, a great high-risk leverage spot to fade him in tournaments. Clearly in low-risk contests this is a no-brainer, you simply lock him in. In high-risk contests, there’s more to consider. We know that roughly two-thirds of the field will be playing him and he’s proven himself to be a R1 or bust fighter. His R1 win line is +195, implying “just” a 25% chance he gets it done, which is exponentially lower than his projected ownership. It’s also not impossible that he gets the R1 KO and somehow is still left out of the optimal, just look at the fact that he scored just 96 DraftKings points in his last R1 KO. That scenario is highly unlikely at his price, but again not impossible. Menifield is coming off two losses and looked bad in each, which is the only reason we don’t see his ownership climbing into the mid 70’s. FanDuel notably released their pricing after the opponent change and Menifield is the second most expensive fighter on their slate. So he can be treated purely as a R1 or bust play over there.
While simply fading Menifield provides a massive amount of leverage, playing Cherant in DFS obviously is also a massive leverage opportunity, although less likely to hit than simply Menifield busting. Cherant’s low volume striking and scarce takedown attempts don’t provide much of a foundation for DFS scoring potential, but he does have five submission wins in just eight pro fights. However, the only way we see him landing one would be if Menifield shot for a takedown, which if he does that he deserves to get both his neck and UFC career Guillotined. More likely, Cherant would need to land his first career knockout or point his way to a decision to win this fight. Menifield’s only career KO loss came in his last fight against a much larger OSP, although he hasn’t had it tested that many times. Menifield’s cardio is terrible so a decision win for Cherant isn’t impossible. The oddsmakers are giving Cherant a 30% chance to win the fight and a 16% chance for a finish, but he’s not a guy we’re excited about playing.
Fight #5
Khama Worthy
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off his first loss since 2017, Worthy had won seven fights in a row prior to getting knocked out in 93 seconds in his last match. He made his 2019 UFC debut against his friend and former training partner, Devonte Smith. While no one was giving Worthy a chance to win that fight, he stepped in on short notice and knocked Smith out late in the first round.
He followed up his explosive August 2019 UFC debut with a June 2020 matchup against Luis Pena, who controlled Worthy on the ground for the majority of the second round, but was unable to get the finish. Worthy reversed the position late in the second, only to have his corner scream at him to get back up opposed to looking for any offense out of top position on the ground, which is notable for this upcoming matchup. Nearly immediately after getting back up, Pena was able to return him to the mat. However, in the third round Worthy did a better job of quickly sprawling to avoid takedowns, before he finally finished the fight with a Guillotine Choke on Pena’s final attempted takedown.
We most recently saw Worthy take on Ottman Azaitar, brother of Abu, who’s fighting on this Saturday’s card. Azaitar came into the fight red hot, with a 12-0 pro record, including 11 finishes, and back-to-back first round knockouts. Azaitar kept his streak alive with a flurry of early punches that put Worthy down, although Worthy tried to protest the stoppage.
Worthy fought his first four pro fights at 155 lb but then moved down to 145 lb from 2013 until 2017. He then moved back up to 155 lb in 2018 and has gone 7-1 since, with just the one loss in his most recent fight.
He’s now 16-7 as a pro, with nine wins by KO and three by submission. He’s won all four of the decisions he’s been to, as all seven of his losses have come early, six by KO. His lone submission loss came in his 2012 pro debut via R2 Rear-Naked Choke. Four of his six KO losses have notably come against UFC fighters, with pre-UFC KO losses against Paul Felder, Billy Quarantillo and Kyle Nelson. Also, four of his KO losses have come in the first round, with the other two coming in R2. He’s never lost a fight that made it past the second round. When he loses, The Death Star goes down in flames.
Jamie Mullarkey
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Prior to joining the UFC, 13 of Mullarkey’s 14 pro fights ended early, with him winning 11 of those. He hadn’t seen the judges since 2014, all the way back in his second pro fight. Mullarkey originally went pro in 2013, at just 19 years old, and won his first eight fights with four KOs and three submissions, including five first round finishes. Then he took on some rando named Alexander Volkanovski and suffered his first career loss in a 2016 R1 KO. The loss had such an impact that it went for an encore in Mullarkey’s next fight, where he got knocked out again five months later, this time in the second round.
Following the pair of setbacks, Mullarkey landed four straight KOs of his own before getting called up to the UFC. In his 2019 debut, he took on Brad Riddell, who was also making his debut. Mullarkey showed his toughness in the match, absorbing a 15 minute life-shortening beating from Riddell, who outlanded Mullarkey 91-36 in significant strikes and 104-41 in total strikes. Mullarkey shot for an eyebrow-raising 15 takedown attempts, but only landed three. Mullarkey simply surviving to see a decision was more impressive then some of the wins we’ve seen, so it’s hard to be too down on him purely based on that fight.
He most recently took on French kickboxer, Fares Ziam, last October, in what was the second UFC match for each fighter. Ziam came into the fight with a 75% takedown defense, after he defended 9 of 12 attempts in his previous UFC debut. Mullarkey lowered that number some as he went 5 for 11 on takedowns in the fight. Mullarkey controlled most of the action, adding nearly seven minutes of control time onto his five takedowns. Ziam did lead in significant strikes 47-20, but went 1 for 5 on his own takedown attempts. It looked like Mullarkey had clearly done enough to win the fight, but the judges disagreed and ruled it a unanimous 29-28 decision for Ziam.
In a recent interview, Mullarkey said, “I’m definitely not leaving this to the judges anymore” and “That last fight left a bad taste in my mouth.” So get ready for the Jamie Mullarkey revenge tour.
Mullarkey trained with his former opponent and current champ, Alexander Volkanovski, in the camp leading up to this fight and the one prior, so there was some initial fear the Mullarkey would also test positive for COVID after Volkanovski did last week, but he appears to have dodged a bullet and tested negative.
Mullarkey fought at 145 lb until 2018, when he moved up to the 155 lb division. Mullarkey is now 12-4 as a pro with seven of his 16 fights ending in the first round, with him winning six of those. His lone first round loss was in the fight against Volkanovski.
Fight Prediction:
Mullarkey will have a 1” height advantage but both fighters share a 74” reach. Mullarkey is notably eight years younger than Worthy.
Worthy looks like the quicker of the two fighters and appears to be the more dangerous striker, while Mullarkey is the better wrestler and will be looking to take the fight to the mat. Mullarkey’s grappling style is better described as relentless than smothering, as he just continues to throw waves of takedowns at his opponents, while not necessarily getting the most out of each one. While he did get knocked out twice in 2016, he was only 22 at the time and has looked pretty durable since. Brad Riddell definitely tested his chin and it survived. On the other side of things, Worthy’s last six losses have all come by KO, with the last three occurring in the first round. If you go by your eyes alone, Worthy looks like the more impressive striker, but with all things considered we like Mullarkey to win this fight, with a good chance it comes in the first two rounds. Worthy has shown the ability to come back and win fights late for what it’s worth.
We like “Mullarkey Wins in R1 or R2” at +380, “Mullarkey Wins by R1 KO” at +1200, “Worthy Wins in R3 or by Decision” at +280, “Worthy Wins in R3” at +850 and “Worthy WIns by R3 Submission” at +3400.
DFS Implications:
Worthy is clearly the flashier fighter in this matchup, and therefore will draw most of the attention. He exploded onto the UFC scene in 2019 with a massive R1 KO upset, and followed it up with a submission win. He then got knocked down a peg with a 93 second KO loss, leaving a little more uncertainty with how we should view him. This is an important fight for Worthy to prove he’s for real, but it comes in a tough matchup against a wrestler who could highlight the weaknesses in Worthy’s game. While he always has a puncher’s chance, this fight likely comes down to how his grappling and takedown defense holds up. If Mullarkey gets this fight to the ground, Worthy won’t have any answers off his back. To win, he needs to stuff takedowns and keep this a striking battle. The oddsmakers like his chances to get a finish, setting his ITD line at +140 (38% true odds) and his R1 win line at +333 (17% true odds). Worthy scored 108 DraftKings points in his R1 KO win, but just 81 points in his R3 submission victory. At his price, a finish in the first two rounds would most likely get him there, but there’s no guarantee a third round win would be enough. Worthy looks like a much better play on FanDuel than DraftKings, as Mullarkey averages the most missed takedown attempts on the slate by a wide margin at 9 per 15 minutes. The next closest is Stipe at 3.7.
Mullarkey will likely go mostly under the radar after losing a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights. However, he notably leads the slate in average takedowns landed per 15 minutes at 4, attempted at 13 and missed at 9. Worthy has a 57% takedown defense, but that’s entirely based on Luis Pena going 3 for 7 against him, as Worthy’s other two UFC opponents didn’t attempt a takedown. Pena notably has just a 33% takedown accuracy in seven UFC fights, and had previously never landed more than a single takedown in a match. Mullarkey didn’t land many significant strikes in his two UFC fights and actually ranks second to last in average landed at just 1.87/min, but it’s his wrestling that we’re more interested in here. Because of his grappling heavy approach, he makes for a more interesting play on DraftKings than FanDuel, where he can score from Control Time and ground strikes. If he puts up a massive takedown number or gets a finish, he can still be in play on FanDuel as well, he just has a lower floor. Mullarkey’s ITD line checks in at +280 (24% true odds), while his R1 win line is just +700 (9% true odds). Based on his moneyline, the bookmakers are giving him a 45% chance to win this fight and the line has already moved noticeably in his favor.
Fight #4
Miranda Maverick
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)This fight had originally been scheduled for February 13th but Robertson got sick and withdrew the day of the event.
Coming off her first career “knockout” win in her UFC debut, Maverick was credited with a R1 TKO due to a doctor stoppage following the first round. The win came against Armbar specialist Liana Jojua and most people weren’t expecting five minutes of unadulterated striking between the two grapplers.
Maverick appeared to bust open Jojua's nose from a heavy left elbow with just 30 seconds remaining in the round. Ironically, Maverick said before the fight that she was looking forward to going against another grappler after she had been paired with so many strikers in the past. Although looking back, maybe she meant she finally had someone she could beat on the feet. With an insane pace, Maverick landed 49 significant strikes in five minutes of action and looked more powerful than she had in past fights.
Maverick has now won four straight, with three finishes, including two in the first round. Six of her eight career wins have come early, with five submissions and now the one KO. Both of her two pro losses ended in decisions.
She’ll get another grappler come Saturday, but we actually expect it to make it to the mat this time. This should be a solid measuring stick for where Maverick's grappling game stands on the UFC level.
Gillian Robertson
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Robertson will be looking to right the ship after getting dominated by Taila Santos for essentially the entirety of a smothering three round decision. Robertson looked to pull guard into an Armbar submission soon after the fight started, but that just resulted with her spending the entire first round on her back. Then Santos took Robertson down 20 seconds into the second round and Robertson was right back where she finished the first. Robertson continued to hunt for submissions, but Santos simply looked too strong for her. She started the third round off with a Guillotine attempt, but frustratingly ended up on her back yet again.
After her first seven UFC fights all ended early, her last two have now both gone the full 15 minutes. Seven of her nine pro wins have come early, with six submissions and one KO. Of her five losses, she’s been finished twice—a 2019 R1 KO against Maycee Barber and a 2018 R1 Armbar against Mayra Bueno Silva.
Robertson has been successful in the UFC by being a technician with her grappling, but that appeared no match for brute strength in her last fight. That’s somewhat concerning coming into this next match, as Maverick has looked pretty powerful from what we’ve seen out of her.
Fight Prediction:
Robertson will have a 2” height advantage, but Maverick will have a 2” reach advantage.
Maverick will have the advantage on the feet in this one, which isn’t saying much as Robertson looks to take all her fights to the mat. We haven’t seen Maverick’s grappling game on the UFC level, so it’s hard to know where it will stack up against a solid test like Robertson. There are a wide range of potential outcomes here and we’d by lying if we said we knew what was going to happen. We could see Maverick outpower Robertson in all aspects of the fight or we could see Robertson utilize her technical skills and experience and put Maverick in precarious positions and potentially land a submission. All things being equal we still give the edge to Maverick based on her physicality, but Robertson is live and could provide a useful edge for betting or DFS.
We like betting “Fight Ends with a Submission” at +270 and if you want to take a shot at something check out “Robertson Wins by R2 Submission” at +1300. “Maverick Wins by KO” at +500 is also worth considering.
DFS Implications:
When this fight was originally set to take place back in February, Maverick was priced at $8,500/$17, while Robertson was $7,700/$13.
Maverick surprised us with her striking volume and power in her first match, but she couldn’t have asked for a more favorable opponent and outcome. Getting a post round stoppage allowed Maverick the full five minutes to rack up 49 significant strikes, while still being credited with the full R1 win bonus. Her inflated score is sure to drive up her ownership, so it makes sense to be under the field in tournaments from a leverage perspective. Robertson does have two R1 losses in the UFC, for what it’s worth, and Maverick clearly has the ability to score well both on the feet or the mat. While Santos dominated Robertson for the entire fight in her last match, she still scored just 78 DraftKings points. If we see similar results from Maverick then fade’s the play.
Robertson has scored at least 92 DraftKings points in all six of her UFC wins, with totals of 94, 92, 110, 106, 97, and 98. After getting dominated for three rounds in her last match, we expect her ownership to be a little bit lower than it would otherwise be. And after her opponent, Maverick, exploded onto the scene with a 110 point R1 KO, we expect her to be a far more popular play. Therefore, Robertson sets up as an interesting leverage play in a buy-low, sell-high matchup. Despite getting controlled for essentially the entire match her last time out, Robertson opened the week as just a +140 underdog and the line has since moved slightly in her favor to +135. This implies she has roughly a 41% chance to win this fight, which is close to twice her projected ownership. That makes Robertson a great tournament play.
Fight #3
Sean O'Malley
6th UFC Fight (4-1)O’Malley is coming off the infamous Marlon Vera fight where he suffered a mysterious ankle/foot injury on the same leg that he had previously injured. There has been rampant speculation about the severity and nature of the injury, but suspiciously few actual facts or first hand reporting that we’ve seen on what occurred and what it means moving forward. The consensus seems to be that he took a kick to the peroneal nerve on the outside of his right leg. Michael Bisping’s doctor described that as the funny bone of the leg. However, that’s where things become less clear.
Some have speculated that he then sprained his ankle trying to move on his dead leg, while others have talked about the potential reaggravation of the Lisfranc injury he suffered in 2018. O’Malley himself said it was the same injury right after the fight ended, but obviously that was just his opinion at the time and who knows if it was accurate. It was reported that the X-rays came back negative, with no apparent fractures, although a Lisfranc injury is a tear in the ligaments and not a bone fracture from what Dr. Google has told us. If it were another Lisfranc injury, which has not been confirmed or denied from what we can tell, that would be far more concerning than a sprained ankle. The lack of first hand reporting is concerning in itself, as it seems like good news would have been publicized. All we know for sure is O’Malley has suffered serious leg/foot injuries in two of his last four fights and relies heavily on his kicking.
We also know that when O’Malley originally hurt his right foot in the 2018 Andre Soukhamthath fight the doctors told him he had a preexisting fracture. Following the fight he was suspended for six months for testing positive for ostarine. He used the time off to have hip surgery, unrelated to his foot. Then he tested positive again, but reached a settlement after he claimed the positive test was linked to a tainted supplement he had taken. Apparently that is a legitimate issue with many supplements, but you always have to wonder when athletes use the tainted supplement defense.
After returning two years later following the injuries and suspensions, O’Malley won two fights both by R1 KO in a total of three 3 and 56 seconds and his past injury history began to fade into the past. However, now that he’s reinjured the same foot there has been widespread speculation as to whether he should retire, if this will be an ongoing issue for him, or if this was just unlucky.
In a March 2018 interview, O’Malley said that from what he understood it would have been better if his foot was broken, opposed to the ligament tears he sustained. It sounds like he did undergo surgery after the first injury, but did not have surgery following his recent injury..
So to sum things up, it’s our understanding that O’Malley had a fracture in his leg going into the Soukhamthath fight, before suffering a Lisfranc injury in the match. Then he took two years off (plenty of time to get his body right) and within five months suffered another injury, potentially related to his previous injury. It doesn’t sound great for his long term prospects and reinjury certainly seems possible. With that said, if O’Malley gets two R1 KOs for every fight he’s forced out of, ceasing to play him will be a long term losing proposition.
When healthy, O’Malley looks nearly unstoppable. He had won his first 12 pro fights leading up to his recent loss, with eight KOs, one submission and three decisions. Eight of those nine finishes came in the first round. In fairness he’s gone against pretty weak competition outside of Marlon Vera, so we’ve yet to see him really be tested.
In his 2017 debut, he defeated Terrion Ware, who’s lost his last SIX fights and is no longer in the UFC. Then he beat Andre Soukhamthath, who’s lost three of his last five fights and is no longer in the UFC. Next he knocked out Jose Alberto Quinonez, who’s lost three of his last four fights. He followed that up with another R1 KO, this time against Eddie Wineland, who’s lost four of his last five fights. With that in mind, now he gets Thomas Almeida who has lost three straight and four of his last five, so the UFC is doing everything they can to make Sean O’Malley a star.
Thomas Almeida
10th UFC Fight (5-4)After winning his first four UFC fights in 2014 and 2015, Almeida has now lost four of his last five and his last three straight. He also took nearly three years off following a January 2018 R2 KO loss to Rob Font. During the time off Almeida had surgery on his left eye.
At just 20 years old, Almeida exploded onto the MMA scene in 2011 winning his first 20 pro fights, impressively all by the age of 24. Even more impressive, 19 of the wins came early with 16 KO’s and three submissions, to go with his lone decision in his 2014 UFC debut. After winning all 16 of his pre UFC fights, his skills seemed to translate seamlessly into the UFC as he won his first four fights there—including three KO's (two in R1 and the other early in R2). However, a 2016 R1 KO loss to Cody Garbrandt seemed to send Almeida's career spiraling.
In what was Almeida’s first UFC main event, Garbrandt proved to be too fast for him as he landed several early punches that quickly put Almeida out in the first round. In his next fight, Almeida was able to bounce back with a R2 KO, but then lost a decision against Jimmie Rivera in what ended up being Almeida's only 2017 appearance. Then he got knocked out in the second round by Rob Font in 2018.
Almeida had been scheduled to fight Marlon Vera in March of 2019 but pulled out in January for medical reasons, as he was dealing with vision issues that required eye surgery.
After finally returning to action nearly three years later, Almeida was scheduled to fight Alejandro Perez last October, but Perez pulled out after testing positive for COVID and Martinez stepped in on short notice and won a unanimous decision. Almeida is now desperate for a win to keep his UFC hopes alive. Notable for this matchup, Almeida throws a solid number of leg strikes, and in his last three fights he’s landed 14, 11 and 23.
Fight Prediction:
O'Malley will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
These two fighters have a combined age of a 55 year old but the medical history of an 80 year old with hip, foot and eye surgeries all in their mid 20’s. With that said, O'Malley is taller and faster than Almeida and looks to be a better finisher at this point in his career. If O’Malley is truly healthy he should have no problem winning this fight. However, Almeida throws a lot of leg kicks and will definitely be looking to test the right leg of O’Malley early and often. It seems unlikely the UFC would clear O’Malley to fight if they were concerned about his leg, but you never know. As long as the leg holds up we like O’Malley to bounce back with a knockout win here.
The three bets we’re looking at are “O’Malley Wins by R1 KO” at +360, “O’Malley Wins by R2 KO” at +650, and “Almeida Wins by KO” at +550 as injury insurance.
DFS Implications:
Despite his history of finishes, O'Malley actually hasn’t been the biggest DFS producer, with DraftKings scores of 105, 97, 64 and 102 and FanDuel totals of 120, 111, 82 and 129 in his four UFC wins. So he’s scored fine, but not exceptionally well. The reason for this is he’s yet to win a fight in under a minute for the quick win bonus, hasn’t landed a takedown in his last four fights, hasn’t paired a R1 finish with more than 18 significant strikes and only has one knockdown so far in the UFC. However, he did have two knockdowns, while landing 27 significant strikes in his R1 KO on DWCS back in 2017, so maybe he’s simply due for some variance, where he has a less hyper efficient R1 finish. His R1 KO on DWCS would have scored 121 DraftKings points and 149 points on FanDuel, in what amounted to a near best case scenario win from a DFS scoring perspective with a pair of knockdowns, 27 significant strikes, three takedowns defended and a late first round finish. Almeida was notably knocked down twice in two of his last three losses and went 0 for 5 on takedowns in his last fight, which are the only five takedown attempts of his career. He also absorbs an above average number of significant strikes at 4.69/minute so there are plenty of reasons for optimism here. So while there’s plenty of uncertainty with the status of O’Malley’s right foot, this does look like a decent spot for a ceiling performance if the leg/foot holds up.
Almeida has averaged 100 DraftKings points in his last four wins. If you’re curious what a R1 KO by leg injury is worth, simply look at Marlon Vera’s score over O’Malley, which was good for 98 DraftKings points, only lacking a knockdown to put up a big score. However, at Almeida’s basement DFS price, a finish of any type would likely be enough to crack the winning lineup and only one of Almeida’s 22 career wins made it to the judges. His +250 moneyline implies he has a 28% chance to win this fight, which is above his projected ownership.
Fight #2
Vicente Luque
16th UFC Fight (12-3)Since losing a decision in his 2015 UFC debut, Luque has gone 12-2 in the organization with his only losses coming against Leon Edwards and Stephen Thompson in a pair of decisions. Impressively, 11 of his 12 UFC wins have come early. Luque bounced back from the loss in his debut with four straight finishes including three in the first round. Then he lost a 2017 decision to Leon Edwards, but again bounced back, this time with six straight wins, including five finishes with three in the first round. His lone decision win over that period came against Mike Perry, who’s been notoriously tough to finish with just one KO loss in his career and one by submission. Following the decision win against Perry, Luque lost a decision to Stephen Thompson. Again, Luque bounced back with a pair of KOs in his last two fights.
Of Luque’s total 19 pro wins, 17 have come early, with 11 KOs and 6 submissions. In the UFC, he has eight KOs and three submission wins, with his last six finishes all coming by KO. He’s never been knocked out in his career, but he has been submitted twice—although not since 2013. His two submission losses were a 2010 R3 Triangle Armbar in his third pro fight and a 2013 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke two fights before joining the UFC.
Luque is a powerful high-volume striker (5.72 SSL/min), but rarely lands takedowns, with zero in his last nine fights. He’s impressively landed at least one knockdown in 9 of his last 10 wins, with Mike Perry the only person to stay upright for the entire fight. Luque, on the other hand, has only been knocked down twice himself in his 15 UFC fights.
Tyron Woodley
16th UFC Fight (9-5-1)Coming off three straight losses, Woodley appears to have lost the desire/ability to fight. Even in an emotionally driven matchup against Colby Covington, Woodley showed no motivation to win. He seemingly tried to get the doctor to stop the fight in the third round for an eye graze, before eventually quitting through a verbal tap for a phantom rib injury in the 5th round. Woodley has landed an anemic 96 significant strikes in his last three fights combined, all of which went to the 5th round with two going the full 25 minutes. That’s “good” for a head-scratching 1.35 significant strikes landed per minute.
His last eight fights have all been scheduled to go five round fights, with the first six of those being title fights. Five of those eight fights went the full 25 minutes, yet amazingly Woodley landed just 333 combined significant strikes in those eight fights (2.11 SSL/min). For comparison, Luque has landed 355 combined significant strikes in his last four three-round fights (6.63 SSL/min).
In Woodley’s defense he’s faced the toughest competition out there, with his last three losses coming against Colby Covington, Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman. However, at 38 years old he just seems like he doesn’t want to be inside the Octagon anymore.
He’s still been a tough guy to put away, and he’s only been finished twice in his career. Most recently when he surrendered against Covington and then previously when he was knocked out in the 4th round of a 2012 Strikeforce match, just before he joined the UFC.
A former D I two-time All-American wrestler with a BJJ black black and a history of knocking opponents out in his earlier UFC years (his last KO win was in 2016), it appears Woodley’s opposition is more afraid of his former persona than the fighter that stands before them. Once fighters start smelling the blood in the water, Woodley’s UFC days will soon be over. It’s possible we see that materialize Saturday, but that remains to be seen.
Fight Prediction:
Luque will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage and is 9 years younger than Woodley.
If you can’t get excited about punching Colby Covington in the face, what’s going to motivate you to brawl with Vicente Luque? We don’t see Woodley making some late career resurgence here and think this fight legitimately has a chance to be his last if he puts out another lackluster performance. But who knows, maybe the UFC will keep rolling his corpse out there as long as they can keep milking his name. We expect Woodley to try and make this fight boring as he attempts to backstep and feint his way to a decision. His wounded animal approach to fighting is getting stale, but it’s still been effective at dragging out fights. Luque has the ability to knock him out, but it’s always tough to finish an opponent who has no desire to engage in a fight. It’s more likely this fight ends in a low-volume disappointing decision.
We don’t see much value in the line we want to be, “Luque Wins by Decision” at +120, so we’re considering “Luque WIns by KO” at +280. If you want to take a stab at something longer, check out his R3 win line at +1200. The only bet that really feels safe here is Luque’s moneyline, but at -260 it’s tough to get excited about it. Look for better bets elsewhere.
DFS Implications:
Luque has scored 120, 108, 64, 108, 127, 117, 106 and 105 DraftKings points in his last eight wins. He’s shown he can score well with a finish in any round, but put up a dud in his lone decision win. With an elite 87% takedown defense and only absorbing an average of 2.72 significant strikes per minute over his career, Woodley has generally been a tough guy to score well against—at least under the old DraftKings scoring system. In Woodley’s recent non-violence campaign, he’s seemingly welcomed being controlled on the fence and has seen his Control Time Against average balloon up to 48% in his last four fights, albeit against some of the best grapplers in the division. Unfortunately, this isn’t something we expect Luque to really capitalize on, as his average control time over his last eight fights is just 3.58%. Luque also hasn’t landed a takedown in his last nine matches and really just wants to stand and trade with guys. Woodley wants to take part in a firefight about as much as he wants to admit that he needs to retire. Look for Woodley to back up against the cage and feint punches as he attempts to bleed the clock to another payday. That makes Luque entirely dependent on an early finish to score well. Woodley has notably never been knocked down in the UFC, leaving Luque even fewer ways to boost his score. He needs a first round finish to guarantee a good score, but a R2 win could still potentially score well depending on the circumstances. While he’s scored well with third round KOs in the past, those have all been high-volume brawls, which we don’t expect here. We normally love Luque in DFS, but this looks like a tough spot for him to score well, even though we fully expect him to win.
Tyron Woodley scored 63 and 73 DraftKings points in his last two FIVE round decision wins. That should tell you everything you need to know about his volume. He’s entirely reliant on a finish to score well, and has just one of those in his last seven fights, going back to 2016. No one has been able to finish Luque in the UFC, with his most recent early loss coming in the third round of a 2013 match prior to joining the UFC. There will probably still be a few people chasing the ghost of Tyron Woodley in DFS, and we definitely don’t want to be one of them, however, Woodley was just 22% owned on DraftKings at $6,900 in his recent five round fight against Colby Covington. So the fan club appears to be shrinking.
Fight #1
Francis Ngannou
13th UFC Fight (10-2)Ngannou exploded into the UFC in 2015 with a 5-1 record and on a four fight winning streak. All of his wins had come in the first two rounds. He proceeded to win his first six UFC fights, with a pair of R2 KOs followed by four straight first round finishes (3 KOs & 1 Kimura Submission). That was enough to get him a title shot against Stipe in January of 2018.
In that title fight, Stipe came in with a smart, cautious game plan, where he knew he just needed to survive the first round and control Ngannou to win the fight. Ngannou was notably 17 lb heavier for the match, weighing in at 263 lb to Stipe’s 246 lb. Stipe didn’t waste any time looking to control Ngannou, as he shot for a takedown 20 seconds into the fight after ducking a face altering punch. Stipe momentarily grounded Ngannoa, who was then able to power back up to his feet. Undeterred, Stipe shot for a second takedown nearly immediately, but Ngganou stuffed it. After dodging dangerous punches for the next minute, while not looking to throw many of his own, Stipe looked for his third takedown just two minutes into the match, but was only able to stall Ngannou against the cage before it was back to dodging ill-intentioned bombs in open space. Stipe landed a couple of good shots in the middle of the round, as did Ngannou, but more importantly Stipe was able to avoid the biggest wind up shots from Ngannou and only get caught with a few strikes. He then finally got Ngannou to the ground on his fourth takedown attempt with just under two minutes remaining in the round. He was able to keep him on his back in the center of the Octagon for about a minute, but Ngannou was able to power back to his feet with a little under 60 seconds remaining in the round. However, at that point it was clear Ngannou was fatigued and already slowing down. Stipe was able to capitalize by landing some solid strikes before taking Ngannou down one final time just before the round ended.
Ngannou opened the second round with his hands on his hips and his mouth wide open. He already looked like a shell of himself and looked exponentially less dangerous. Stipe got him back to the ground midway through the second round and continued to just wear on him, which continued for the remainder of the match as he cruised to a decision win. Ngannou never looked to be a threat after the first round, and Stipe executed his game plan to perfection, showing that the key to beating Ngannou is simply to wear on him and survive the first round.
Following the loss, Ngannou looked shell shocked in his next fight, a bizarrely low-volume, no action three round snoozer against Derrick Lewis, who outlanded Ngannou just 20-11 in strikes/significant strikes over the course of three rounds on his way to a decision win. The two guys essentially stared at each other the entire fight as there was only 1 second of combined control time and no takedowns in the match. Herb Dean even paused to fight at one point to tell the fighters they needed to engage.
Ngannou snapped out of it in his next fight, as he knocked out Curtis Blaydes in 45 seconds. He then topped that with a 26 second finish of Cain Velasquez, before finishing Junior Dos Santos in 71 seconds and then most recently Jairzinho Rozenstruik in just 20 seconds. After four straight first round knockouts, Ngannou then waited for the Cormier/Stipe trilogy to play out as he was next in line for a title shot.
Now 15-3 as a pro, Ngannou has 11 KOs and four submissions wins. Three of the four submissions came in his first five pro fights and outside of landing a 2016 Kimura to prevent a takedown, Ngannou is primarily just a knockout threat. All three of his losses have gone the distance, and he’s never been finished. Ngannou’s last eight wins have all come in the first round and he hasn’t won a fight that lasted longer than five minutes since his second UFC bout back in 2016. He looks like a R1 or bust fighter, but probably the best R1 or bust fighter in the world. It will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes to his game plan in this upcoming rematch.
Stipe Miocic
18th UFC Fight (14-3)Since beating Ngannou over three years ago, Stipe has only faced one opponent since, Daniel Cormier, but they went at it three straight times over the course of 25 months. Stipe lost the Heavyweight belt to Cormier in their first matchup via R1 KO, but won it back 13 months later with a R4 KO, before defending it when he won the tiebreaker a year after that in a decision.
Stipe approached the first match against Cormier far less cautiously then the way he fought Ngannou and it ended up getting him in trouble. Cormier caught him with a clean right hook to the chin coming out of the clinch late in the first round, immediately dropping Stipe. Cormier followed up with a few heavy shots that bounced Stipe’s head off the canvas for good measure, ending the find abruptly.
The 2019 rematch looked to be going mostly Cormier’s way for the first three rounds, although both guys had their moments. However, in the fourth round Stipe relentlessly attacked the right side of Cormier mid-section with digging left hooks, before finishing him with a barrage of head shots.
After knocking each other out in their first two matches, the trilogy fight was booked a year late nearly to the day. Stipe nearly finished Cormier at the end of the second round, dropping him shortly before the end, but Cormier was saved by the bell. Stipe landed a brutal eye poke in the third round that pirated Cormier, although in fairness, Cormier landed an eye poke of his own in each of their three fights—although none looked nearly as bad. Cormier said he couldn’t even ses out of the eye afterwards.
This will be Stipe’s 8th straight title fight going back to 2016. Five of his previous seven ended with knockouts, but two of his last four have ended in decisions. Now 38 years old, you would expect him to start slowing down soon. While 15 of his 20 career wins have come early (all by KO), two of his last four have ended in decisions. Prior to his decision win over Ngannou, Stipe had knocked out five straight opponents with the last four coming in the first round. Two of his three career losses have also come by knockout—with the 2018 R1 KO against Cormier and a 2012 R2 KO against Stefan Struve in Stipe’s fourth pro fight.
After weighing in at 246 lb the last time he fought Ngannou, Stipe came in at 242.5 lb the first time he fought Cormier, and then 230.5 lb and 233 lb respectively for the second and third matches So it will be interesting to see where he weighs in on Friday against Ngannou, who’s never weighed in below 252 lb in the UFC.
UPDATE: Stipe weighed in at just 234 lb, a massive 29 lb lighter than Ngannou [Queue up the speed vs. power debates].
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’4” but Ngannou will have a 3” reach advantage.
After having so much success with his conservative grappling heavy approach in their first match, it’s hard to imagine Stipe coming in with a different game plan. Ngannou is still the most dangerous striker in the world and Stipe will want no part of a striking brawl. The bigger question will be if Ngannou changes anything with his approach. Ngannou doesn’t exactly have a well rounded game, but he is one of the most destructive humans alive. So it’s not like we expect him to come in with a wrestling heavy approach, but maybe he’ll throw more uppercuts and knees to try and deter takedowns. Or he potentially comes in with a more patient gameplan to try and not gas out as quickly. Even if he doesn’t change anything up, Ngannou clearly has the potential to finish anyone with a single punch, and it will just come down to how elusive Stipe can be. We expect this to play out similar to the first time these two fought, at least in terms of Stipe trying to make it a grappling match while Ngannou looks to orphan Stipe’s children. It’s possible that Ngannou has either improved his cardio some or starts a little more patiently, which could potentially keep a R2 KO in play, but we expect this ends with either a Ngannou R1 KO or another Stipe decision.
The two bets we like are “Stipe Wins by Decision” at +460 and “Ngannou Wins by R1 KO” at +210.
DFS Implications:
Ngannou has been a solid DFS producer. His last eight DraftKings scores in wins were 127, 104, 117, 130, 105, 103, 91 and 94. On FanDuel, those respectively came out to 116, 117, 107, 126, 119, 117, 109 and 108. Three of his last four wins came in under 60 seconds, which resulted in his three explosion spots on DraftKings. While he has the potential to lead the slate in scoring on DraftKings with a quick win, he seems far less likely to do so on FanDuel. It would require some obscure outlier performance where he racks up multiple takedowns defended and/or knockdowns, because he lacks the striking volume and grappling stats to really put up monster scores otherwise. So while he consistently puts up big scores, his FanDuel numbers would rarely lead the slate in scoring. Acknowledging that will already put you a step ahead of the field, as it would be surprising if he wasn’t the highest owned FanDuel MVP on the slate, while he’s actually very unlikely to lead the FanDuel slate in scoring, even with a R1 KO.
Ngannou landed just 21 significant strikes and 33 total strikes when these two last fought, and only seemed to pose a legitimate threat in the first round. He scored just 40 DraftKings points and 62 points on FanDuel. Ngannou’s last eight wins have all come in the first round, while all three of his career losses have gone the distance. In fact, Ngannou has never won a fight that made it past the second round, with all 15 of his career wins coming in the first 10 minutes (11 R1 wins & 4 in R2). With that in mind, his R1 win line is +160 (27% true odds), while his R2 win line is +400 (14% true odds).
Stipe had a smart grappling heavy approach the first time these two fought, and you have to think that will be his game plan again. He landed just 70 significant strikes in that first match, but 200 total strikes, while adding six takedowns and over 15 minutes of control time. That was good for a massive 141 DraftKings points but just 101 points on FanDuel. He massively benefited from the new DraftKings scoring system, which boosted his score from good to great going from 113 points with the old rules to the 141 points we see now. In Stipe’s last eight wins he has DraftKings scores of 108, 109, 141, 111, 109, 108, 129 and 194. So five good scores, two eruptions and one other worldly number. His 194 point performance came in a R5 KO over Mark Hunt where he landed 113 significant strikes, 361 total strikes, six takedowns and over 16 minutes of control time. Those eight wins scored 104, 133, 101, 128, 126, 127, 119 and 129 on FanDuel.
While Stipe has greatly benefitted from the new DraftKings scoring system at times, he’s still averaged more FanDuel points then Ngannou over their last eight wins (121 vs. 115 points). The main reason for this is due to how quickly Ngannou ends his fights. Without any sort of quick win bonus on FanDuel, Ngannou simply doesn’t add enough to his scores to really put up slate leading numbers. He’s never landed more than one knockdown in a fight, he has zero career takedowns, and he’s landed a TOTAL of 150 significant strikes in his 12 UFC fights , and only 89 significant strikes in his last 10 fights.
So to sum things up, the winner of this fight most likely ends up in the optimal lineup, BUT Ngannou is unlikely to be the highest score on the slate on FanDuel and is reliant on the quick win bonus on DraftKings. Stipe has a great shot to end up as the highest scorer on DraftKings, if he wins, but is also unlikely to be the highest scorer on FanDuel. With a massive portion of the field using one of these two fighters in their MVP spot on FanDuel, this looks like a great leverage spot to completely fade the Main Event in the MVP spot on FanDuel, while making sure to include one of them in your flex spots.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma