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Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Zubaira Tukhugov
9th UFC Fight (5-2-1)Tukhugov hasn’t competed in 16 months after he dropped out of his last two scheduled fights. He then had been set to take on Joel Alvarez here, but Alvarez withdrew and Brenner was announced as the replacement on January 13th.
Coming off a decision win over Ricardo Ramos, Tukhugov has struggled with inactivity and inconsistency as he hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2014-2015. Prior to his recent win, he lost a 2020 split decision to Hakeem Dawodu, where Tukhugov spent the final two minutes literally running away from Dawodu, completely refusing to fight. Just before that, Tukhugov knocked out Kevin Aguilar in the first round of another 2020 fight, which is Tukhugov’s only finish since 2014. Tukhugov’s three previous fights to that all ended in split decisions (1-1-1), with a 2019 draw against Lerone Murphy, a 2016 loss to Renato Carneiro, and a 2015 win over Phillipe Nover.
In Tukhugov’s last fight, Ramos landed one of his patented spinning elbows clean to the head of Tukhugov in the first round, but Tukhugov was able to eat it and keep on going. Both guys landed heavy shots early, but neither was able to close the show. After landing eight takedowns on 13 attempts in his previous fight, Ramos didn’t attempt any against Tukhugov, who went 2 for 7 on his own attempts. The striking was pretty close, but Tukhugov finished ahead there as well as he led in significant strikes 77-68 and in total strikes 78-71. That was the first time Ramos has ever lost a decision in his career.
Now 20-5-1 as a pro, Tukhugov has seven wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and 12 decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2012), submitted once (R1 2010), and has three decision losses. Amazingly, four of Tukhugov’s last five decisions have been split. Tukhugov started his career at 155 lb before moving down to 145 lb just one fight before joining the UFC in 2013. Up until now, he’s fought exclusively at 145 lb in the UFC, but now he’ll be moving back up to 155 lb after struggling with the cut down to 145 lb and dropping out of his last fight due to a botched weight cut.
Overall, Tukhugov is a Russian Master of Sports in Combat Sambo and Hand-to-Hand Combat, but is also a cowardly fighter who rarely even makes it to his booked matchups, and has been known to run away from opponents during fights. He’s also the guy that jumped over the fence after the Conor/Khabib fight and sucker punched Conor when he wasn’t looking, just to give you a full picture of who he is. He averages just 2.94 SSL/min and 2.84 SSA/min, while tacking on 2.5 TDL/15 min. He’s attempted seven or more takedowns in three of his last four fights, so it will be interesting to see if he’s looking to wrestle in this next match as he takes on a grappler. Tukhugov still has a 100% takedown defense, but only one opponent has actually tried to get him down, which was Phillipe Nover, who went 0 for 5 on his attempts.
UPDATE: Despite moving up a weight class, Tukhugov missed weight by 1.5 lb!
Elves Brenner Oliveira
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a first round submission win, Brenner is 4-3 in his last seven fights with all four of those wins ending in first round submissions and all three of the losses going the distance. In his last fight, Brenner landed an early takedown and controlled his opponent for basically the entire first round before looking for a failed leg lock late in the round, Following a brief scramble he was able to regain position and lock up a rear-naked choke just before the round ended in a largely uneventful match.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Brenner has one knockout win, 11 submission victories, and one decision win. Eight of those submissions ended in round one, one came in round two, and two occurred in round three. All three of his losses have gone the distance.
Overall, Brenner is generally looking to take opponents down and beat them up on the mat while looking for submissions. He’s not helpless on the feet, but he has looked pretty hittable in striking exchanges. He hasn’t been very active lately, with just one fight a year for the last three years. The last time he won a fight beyond the first round was in 2018, when he landed a submission 95 seconds into round two
Fight Prediction:
Brenner will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. He’s also seven years younger than the 32-year-old Tukhugov.
Tukhugov is the more well-rounded fighter and obviously the more experienced, but he also rarely actually fights. He’s still never been taken down in the UFC, which could make Brenner’s life difficult here as he likely needs to get this fight to the mat to have a chance to win. Tukhugov should be able to outstrike him on the feet, and if it stays standing the real question is whether or not Tukhugov can find a finish. Seven of Tukhugov’s eight career early wins have come in the first round, although he’s only landed one finish since 2014. So if this fight makes it past round one, we could be looking at another decision for him. Tukhugov fights so infrequently that it’s hard to truly evaluate where he’s at right now, but we’d still be surprised if he lost to a UFC newcomer. However, the fact that Tukhugov is moving up to 155 lb AND still missed weight definitely adds some uncertainty to the mix, and we have several unknowns in play here. Forced to choose, we’ll still say Tukhugov wins by decision, but we don’t really want anything to do with this fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Tukhugov DEC” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Tukhugov has been a boom or bust DFS play for his entire UFC career with only two usable DFS scores in eight UFC appearances. Both of those came in first round knockouts and he’s never shown the ability to score well in decisions, despite his ability to wrestle. He’s not a fighter you can trust to actually push for a finish or give it his all, so it’s hard to get even remotely excited about playing him as the most expensive fighter on the DraftKings slate. The fact that he’s moving up a weight class and taking on a UFC newcomer adds a lot of overall uncertainty to this fight, which makes it tougher to feel confident about taking a hard stand, but Tukhugov appears reliant on landing a first round knockout to score well. The odds imply he has a 82% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Brenner, or Oliveira depending on where you look, has been a submission or bust guy throughout his career, with 11 of his 13 pro wins ending in submissions. Now he’ll be making his UFC debut against a veteran who’s never been taken down, so this looks like a tough spot for Brenner to get the fight to the ground to look for a submission. Working in Brenner’s favor, he’s fought at 155 lb more recently than Tukhugov, who’s moving up to 155 lb for the first time in the UFC. However, most of Brenner’s career has also been spent at 145 lb, so it’s hard to say how much of an impact the weight will actually have. We’re treating Brenner as a hail mary submission or bust play. The odds imply he has an 18% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Shane Young
6th UFC Fight (2-3)It’s been 23 months since Young last competed and four years since his last win, as he’s lost his last two fights. Young originally joined the UFC back in 2017 on a five fight winning streak and made his short notice debut against Alexander Volkanovski. Young survived to lose a decision, which we suppose could be taken as a moral victory in such a tough matchup. He bounced back from the loss with a late R2 KO in his next fight against Ronaldo Dy, who entered the match with a 1-2 UFC record and was released by the organization afterwards. Following his first UFC win, Young won a high-volume decision against a struggling Austin Arnett, who was cut following the loss. Young then got knocked out in the first round by a debuting Ludovit Klein, leading up to a decision loss to Omar Morales in his last fight.
In his last fight, we saw a slow, patient start from both fighters, with only 15 total significant strikes landed in the first round, 8-7 in favor of young. Young initiated the grappling midway through the round, but it was Morales who was able to take Young down, although he didn’t control him for long before Young returned to his feet. While Morales picked up the pace some in the later rounds, Young appeared disinterested and to be sleepwalking through the fight as Morales cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win. It ended with Morales ahead 69-46 in significant strikes and 74-59 in total strikes. Young landed one of his five takedown attempts with 3:26 in control time, while Morales landed both of his attempts with 87 seconds of control time.
Now 13-6 as a pro, Young has six wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and three decision victories. Seven of his 10 early wins have occurred in round one, one ended in round two, and two came in round three. The only time he’s ever been finished was a 2020 R1 KO, while his other five losses have all gone the distance. Young’s only early win in the UFC was against Rolando Dy, who finished 1-3 in the UFC and was cut following the R2 TKO loss to Young.
Overall, Young wrestled in high-school and also has a background in boxing and kickboxing. He’s part of the City Kickboxing Team in New Zealand, so he has a good team around him, but it hasn’t been showing in his performances. While he showed the ability to land a good amount of striking volume in his two UFC wins back in 2018 and 2019, Young has only landed 50 combined significant strikes in his last two matches and just hasn’t looked like he actually wants to be in there. Perhaps things have changed mentally for him over the two years since we last saw him, but that’s anyone’s guess. In his five UFC appearances, Young has landed 3 of his 13 takedown attempts (23.1% accuracy), while getting taken down 7 times on 16 opponent attempts (56.3% defense). Both of the opponents to try and take him down landed two or more of their attempts.
Blake Bilder
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a first round submission win on DWCS, Bilder has won five straight fights and finished his last four opponents. His last two wins before going on DWCS both came in CFFC Featherweight title fights, which Bilder won with a R3 TKO and a R2 submission. It’s important to point out that the submission win came against an opponent who stepped in on just a day’s notice, yet still dominated Bilder for the first nine and a half minutes of the fight before Bilder threw up a triangle late in round two to steal the win. Following that comeback victory, Bilder landed the only KO/TKO victory of his career, but he once again faced a ton of adversity early on. He got knocked down not once, not twice, but thrice in the first round. However, he rebounded in round two with a knockdown of his own and then landed another knockdown in round three as he finished the fight with strikes.
In his last fight, we saw a slow start with Bilder circling the outside of the Octagon as he patiently looked for an entry point against a defensively sound opponent. Three minutes into the first round Bilder found a way in as he landed a right hand and then jumped on the back of his still standing opponent, Alexander Morgan, who’s now been submitted four times in his career. Bilder immediately looked for a rear-naked choke, and while Morgan was briefly able to fight off the initial attempt, as he tried to stand up Bilder was able to lock up the choke to complete the first round submission win. The fight ended with Morgan ahead 12-9 in significant strikes and 12-10 in total strikes, while no takedowns were attempted.
Now 7-0-1 as a pro, Bilder has one TKO win, four by submission, and two decision victories. While he’s never been defeated, he does have a draw on his record. Three of his submission wins came in round one with the other ending in round two, while his lone TKO victory ended in round three. His last four wins have all come early. None of his first four opponents had winning records, while his last few haven’t been overly impressive either, so he hasn’t gone up against the toughest competition to this point.
Overall, Bilder has a background in boxing and also recently received his BJJ black belt. He’s a slow starter who’s had to deal with a lot of adversity both inside the Octagon and out, but finds ways to persevere. However, that’s not a very sustainable way to get by as a pro fighter and it’s bound to catch up with him eventually. His striking isn’t overly impressive, and he’s been dropped four times in his last three fights. He does a good job of quickly looking for rear-naked chokes and has no problem taking opponents’ backs on the feet or working off his back, but he still needs to clean some things up in his grappling and wrestling as well. He’s already 32 years old so it remains to be seen how many improvements we can expect from him moving forward, but he doesn’t have the toughest matchup for his UFC debut.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8” but Young will have a 4” reach advantage.
Neither one of these two have been very impressive, but at least Bilder has had his moments in recent fights, while it’s been four years since Young won even a round on the scorecards or showed us anything to be optimistic about. He looked terrible in his last two outings. It’s hard to know where he’s at both physically and mentally after two years away, but he at least appears to be in good shape. While Bilder will look to threaten submissions, Young has never been submitted. And while Bilder has been prone to getting knocked down, Young doesn’t offer a ton of power in his striking. That makes it tougher to know how this fight will play out, or how motivated Young will be after his disappointing previous performance. Based on how each guy has looked recently, we’re expecting a slower start, but Young is a wildcard as we’ve seen him do nothing for three rounds, but he’s also landed over 100 significant strikes in each of his last two wins. His two years away is concerning and until he shows us something our expectations on him will remain incredibly low.
We have several concerns with Bilder as well, making it nearly impossible to trust either one of these two. Bilder’s best shot at landing a finish will be by submission, but we’re not overly confident that he can lock something up, especially if this ends up being slower paced. Our concern with betting on Bilder to win on the scorecards is that he’s a slow starter who typically digs himself a hole early on in fights and then has to work his way back. That makes his live line after the first round more interesting than his moneyline going in. We wish we could bet against both of these two, but we’ll say it ends in a close decision that could go either way depending on how the judges feel. Historical data will point to Young getting his hand raised if this goes the distance, but it’s just so hard to actually bet on him if you’ve watched his last couple of fights. Gun to our head we’ll say Young wins by decision, but we don’t feel even remotely comfortable backing either of these two.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +120.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Young landed over 100 significant strikes in each of his two UFC wins, but those victories were all the way back in 2018 and 2019 and he’s looked dreadful in his last two matches. The only time he’s put up a usable score in five UFC appearances was in his lone finish—a 2018 R2 TKO over Rolando Dy, who was cut following the loss and went 1-3 in the UFC. Young scored 122 DraftKings points in that high-volume knockout, but scored just 32 points in a decision loss the last time we saw him. It’s now been 23 months since he last competed and four years since he last won. None of that instills confidence that he can put on a good performance here, although he does have a favorable matchup against a UFC newcomer who’s been knocked down four times in his last three fights. That’s not to say Bilder isn’t somewhat dangerous, as he’ll look for submissions from a variety of positions and Young will need to be careful not to get caught in anything. Young has shown an extremely wide range of potential scoring outcomes and we honestly don’t know what to expect out of him at this point in his career, especially after not seeing him inside of the Octagon for two years. So while we’re typically proponents of betting on the unknown in large-field tournaments, be prepared for disappointment with him. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Bilder is somehow undefeated in his career, despite getting knocked down three times in the first round of his second most recent fight and getting controlled for nine and a half minutes and knocked down in the first two rounds of his fight just before that—and notably against an opponent who stepped in on a day’s notice. Bilder is a slow starter who doesn’t land much striking volume and often relies on landing finishes to win fights. He only has one KO/TKO win on his record, and is generally looking to finish fights with submissions. Now he’ll face an opponent who’s never been submitted and this doesn’t look like a great spot for Bilder to find a finish. Young’s last fight was an absolute snoozer, and if Bilder also starts slow once again, it may be tougher for the winner to score well here, even if we do get a late finish. They’re both reasonably priced, which makes it a less comfortable fade, especially knowing how prone Bilder has been to getting knocked down. The odds imply Bilder has a 44% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Loma Lookboonmee
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Lookboonmee is coming off a decision win and has now won three of her last four fights, with her last seven matches all going the distance. Prior to that win, she lost a wrestling-heavy decision against a really tough Lupita Godinez, after winning decisions against Sam Hughes and Jinh Yu Frey. Lookboonmee’s only other UFC loss came against Angela Hill.
In her last fight, Lookboonmee showed improved wrestling but was still caught out of position on the mat at multiple points and her grappling is clearly a work in progress. She landed four of her five takedowns in the fight, but nearly got submitted at multiple points and would have by a better grappler. She also randomly stood up and walked away from her opponent with half a minute remaining in round two and nearly got tackled for doing so. That wasn’t the only bizarre moment in the match. After her opponent Denise Gomes went for a leg lock early in the third round, Lookboonmee escaped but then just sat there on all fours and waited for Gomes to take her back. So there was plenty she needs to clean up, but she’s slowly becoming a more well-rounded fighter after entering the UFC as a pure Muay Thai striker. Lookboonmee was able to finish ahead in control time 7:01-5:31 and the gap would have been much wider had she not allowed her back to be taken in round three. Lookboonmee was able to defend all six of Gomes’ takedown attempts and finished ahead 48-19 in significant strikes and 87-45 in total strikes.
Now 7-3 as a pro, Lookboonmee has one TKO win (2018 R2) and six decision victories. She’s never been knocked out, but she has been submitted once (R1 2018) and has two decision losses. She’s fought to seven straight decisions and her fights to end early both came in her first three pro fights before she joined the UFC. A former Atomweight (105 lb), Lookboonmee only moved up to Strawweight (115 lb) when she joined the UFC in 2019 and she’s been slowly growing into the weight class.
Overall, Lookboonmee is a crisp striker and a former Muay Thai champion and is actually the first Thai fighter to join the UFC. She’s been working on rounding out her game since joining the UFC and she does a good job of using trips to land takedowns. After landing just two takedowns in her first three UFC fights, she’s landed nine in his last three matches. In her six UFC fights combined, she’s landed 11 of her 23 takedown attempts (47.8% accuracy). At 5’1” Lookboonmee is a little undersized, but she did say that she added 9 lb of weight between her first and second UFC fights as she continued to try and grow into the 115 lb division. Nevertheless, she’ll still be at a height disadvantage against almost all of her opponents.
Elise Reed
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Continuing to alternate between ground and pound TKO losses and decision wins over her four UFC fights, Reed recently won a decision over a debuting Melissa Martinez. Just before that, Reed got finished on the mat with ground and pound in the third round by Sam Hughes. Reed also has a split-decision win over Cory McKenna, after she got finished in the first round of her short notice UFC debut against Sijara Eubanks, in a fight that Reed took up a weight class. Prior to joining the UFC, Reed won all four of her pro fights.
In her last fight, Reed started strong, landing an early knockdown in round one against Martinez. After that Martinez appeared a little nervous to engage with Reed and spent a lot of the fight backing up and circling away from contact. Reed also surprisingly won the grappling exchanges, landing all three of her takedown attempts and only allowing Martinez to take her down once on two attempts. After the early knockdown, it wasn’t the most eventful fight, but Martinez finished ahead in significant strikes 45-38, while Reed led in total strikes 65-63. Reed won a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Now 6-2 as a pro, Reed has two wins by TKO and four decisions. She’s been finished with ground and pound in both of her losses. Two of her four decisions have been split. Reed actually made her 2019 pro debut at Atomweight (105 lb), before moving up to 115 lb in 2020.
With a Taekwondo background, Reed is a one-dimensional striker, but showed some improvements to her wrestling in her last fight. Reed never even attempted a takedown in her first three UFC fights, but landed all three of her attempts in her last match. She’s been taken down by her opponents 9 times on 18 attempts (50% defense), which has been her biggest weakness to this point. If she can continue to improve her grappling, she’ll be a tougher out, as her striking is decent. However, she also needs to increase her output, as she only averages 2.77 SSL/min.
Fight Prediction:
Reed will have a 2” height and reach advantage and Z” reach advantage.
Both of these two joined the UFC as one-dimensional strikers with no real grappling skills. However, we’ve seen them each make some improvements, especially when you look at Lookboonmee. Reed has looked absolutely terrible off her back, which has resulted in her getting finished on the mat in both of her UFC losses. So if Lookboonmee can take her down and start raining down elbows, there’s a good chance she can eventually force a stoppage, most likely late in the fight once she’s worn Reed down. On the feet, this will be somewhat of an interesting striking battle, but we still give the advantage to Lookboonmee in that department as well. However, we’d be surprised to see a standing knockout from either of them. The most likely scenario is for Lookboonmee to use a combination of striking and grappling to grind out another decision win, but we think she’s got a shot at securing her first early win in the UFC with a ground and pound TKO in the second or third round.
Our favorite bet here is “Lookboonmee R2 or R3 KO” at +850.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Lookboonmee is coming off a career best performance where she scored 95 DraftKings points in a decision win through a combination of striking and grappling. It would have scored better, but she made a few critical mistakes in the fight. She nearly got submitted in the first round and spent a prolonged period of time fighting it off, then stood up and walked away from top position with 35 seconds left on the clock in R2 and almost got tackled from behind. Then in round three she paused on the mat on all fours and allowed her opponent to take her back and control her for several minutes. If you take away those head-scratching decisions she would have been looking at a massive DraftKings score, so hopefully she’ll tighten things up in this matchup. Reed is actually worse on the ground than Lookboonmee’s last opponent, so there’s tons of potential for Lookboonmee to rack up points on the ground if she can put Reed on her back. Lookboonmee was just 6% owned the last time we saw her, and while we expect that number to rise some here, she’ll remain low owned at her high price tag despite the juicy matchup. That makes her an excellent tournament play and even if she doesn’t get a finish we could see her put up a big DraftKings score. However, she’s more reliant on landing a finish on FanDuel. The odds imply she has a 72% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Reed is a one dimensional striker with a Taekwondo background who has really struggled off her back, getting finished twice in the last two fights from that position. She saved her job with a decision win in her last outing, and also attempted a takedown for the first time in the UFC, landing all three of her attempts. She also notched a knockdown, but still only scored 82 points in the decision victory. At her cheaper price tag, perhaps she could still serve as a value play if only a few underdogs win overall, but she’ll need a finish to really score well. The odds imply she has a 28% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Jack Jenkins
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Fresh off a third round TKO win on DWCS, Jenkins will be making his UFC debut on a seven fight winning streak in front of his home Australian crowd. He won the Eternal MMA Featherweight belt back in 2020 and successfully defended it twice, in addition to winning the Rogue MMA Featherweight belt. His last defense of the Eternal MMA Featherweight belt came in an ultra high-volume five-round decision just before going on DWCS, where Jenkins couldn’t miss with anything he threw, but never attempted to get the fight to the mat. He then showed his diverse skill set when he went on DWCS and exclusively looked to take the fight to the mat. Five of his last six wins have come early, but his last five fights have all made it out of the first round.
In his last fight, Jenkins landed a takedown 30 seconds into the first round and patiently worked his way to full mount. His opponent was able to finally escape in the final 30 seconds of the round as Jenkins got his knee caught in a really awkward position. Jenkins got the fight back to the mat a minute into round two and split open his opponent, Emiliano Linares, with a series of elbows. After getting beat up on the ground for the entire round, Linares tried to return to his feet late in the round, but Jenkins immediately spilled him back to the ground. As the third round started Jenkins had to deal with an equipment malfunction as his cup apparently broke, but he was able to make it work somehow and action resumed. Once again, Jenkins got the fight back to the ground a minute into the third round and went back to work with elbows. Linares almost escaped the position, but after a brief scramble Jenkins ended up back in top position doing damage. With 30 seconds left on the clock the referee decided he had seen enough and stopped the fight as Jenkins continued to land ground and pound. The fight ended with Jenkins ahead 52-17 in significant strikes and 109-55 in total strikes. He also landed four of his six takedown attempts with 11:09 in control time in the one-sided fight.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Jenkins has five wins by KO/TKO, three by submission, and two decision victories. Both of his career losses ended in submissions in his first five pro fights. Since the pair of consecutive submission losses, he rattled off seven straight victories.
Overall, Jenkins is another Australian with a rugby background who has spent a little time training with Alexander Volkanovski. Jenkins looks very well-rounded as he’s got really solid striking and looks to be a decent wrestler as well. He throws heavy leg kicks and apparently has broken numerous opponents’ legs with them. He does a good job of snapping his strikes out there without loading up on his punches. That allows him to put up massive striking totals at times as he relentlessly peppers his opponents. We’ve also seen him be a little more patient at times when facing more dangerous opponents, so he will vary his game plan up. Still just 29 years old, Jenkins looks like an interesting prospect to keep an eye on.
Don Shainis
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a quick submission loss in his recent short notice UFC debut against Sodiq Yusuff, Shainis had won five straight prior to that recent loss. However, when you have guys like notorious stat padder Jay Ellis (16-106 pro record) mixed into that winning streak, you seriously have to wonder about the level of competition Shainis had been facing. The closest thing Shainis has fought to real competition was Cody Pfister, who went 1-3 with the UFC earlier in his career and has now lost three of his most recent four fights. Nevertheless, Shainis’ last three wins all ended in first round TKOs. However, we did see Shainis get rocked early in his second most recent fight, so it’s not like he hadn’t faced any adversity.
In his last fight, Shainis immediately found himself taking knees out of the Thai clinch against Yusuff, and instead of trying to defend himself or escape, Shainis showed off his inexperience as he looked to land punches of his own to the body of Yusuff. Shainis then dropped down for a double leg and Yusuff immediately jumped guillotine and quickly forced a tap. The fight lasted just 30 seconds and Yusuff finished ahead 9-3 in significant strikes, while the two were even in total strikes at nine apiece.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Shainis has eight wins by KO/TKO, two by submission, and two decisions. He’s been finished twice in his career, with a R1 TKO due to doctor stoppage in his 2016 pro debut and a R1 submission loss in his recent UFC debut. His other two losses both went the distance. Eight of his 10 early wins occurred in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. Shainis has bounced between 145 lb and 155 lb throughout his career, with his last two fights taking place at 145 lb, but his four prior to that all coming at 155 lb.
Overall, every Shainis fight looks pretty much identical, with him looking to take opponents down and beat them up with ground and pound. While he’s also looked prone to getting taken down himself, he’s shown the ability to sweep opponents on the mat to end up on top when he does get taken down. At just 5’6” tall, Shainis is accustomed to being the smaller fighter in basically all of his fights. Shainis had been training at Glory MMA, but was forced to return to Massachusetts for this match after the UFC banned fighters from training at Glory. In a recent interview, Shainis said he’ll have his dad and a friend in his corner, along with a coach because he couldn’t afford to fly an additional two corner men out and the UFC only pays for one corner to get there. He said his Dad has never cornered him before.
Fight Prediction:
Jenkins will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is two years younger than the 31-year-old Shainis.
Shainis looks to be essentially a one dimensional ground and pound specialist and Jenkins should have him outgunned anywhere this fight goes. Jenkins is a much better striker and showed in his DWCS match that he can also dominate opponents on the mat. Shainis has made a career out of beating up on low-level opponents and we expect Jenkins to be too much for him to handle. Shainis’ only hope will be to take Jenkins down and control him on the mat, and Jenkins’ takedown defense has looked pretty solid on the regional scene. Obviously you never know how a fighter will handle the pressure of making their UFC debut, and Jenkins will have the added pressure of fighting in front of his home crowd on a PPV card, but Jenkins has been in big fights in the past and has always looked completely composed. We expect Shainis to be looking to get this fight to the ground early and often, but that should wear on his gas tank along with the constant pressure of Jenkins. That should open things up for Jenkins to land a mid to late round TKO finish, assuming Shainis can even make it that long. It’s not impossible that Shainis can survive to see the judges, but we like Jenkins to dominate this fight and we’ll say he wins by TKO in the later rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Jack Jenkins R2 or R3 KO” at +490.
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DFS Implications:
Jenkins looks like a really interesting prospect as he has the ability to dominate opponents on the mat and put up huge striking totals on the feet. His recent grappling-heavy R3 TKO win on DWCS would have been good for 102 DraftKings points and 75 points on FanDuel, as he racked up four takedowns and over 11 minutes of control time. While that style of fight will score better on DraftKings than FanDuel, we saw Jenkins put up an other-worldy striking total in a five-round decision in his second most recent fight, which would have broken slates on either site. He seems to game plan around his opponents’ weaknesses (novel idea, right?), so when he faces strikers he’s more likely to grapple and when he faces grapplers he’s more likely to keep things standing. He’ll be going against a grappler in his debut here, so he may look to grapple less, although if Shainis forces the grappling exchanges we could see the fight end up on the mat regardless of what Jenkins’ game plan is. Jenkins should be able to win this fight wherever it goes as long as he doesn’t get held down on his back, and Shainis has been finished in two of his four pro losses. With the home crowd behind Jenkins, we like his chances to dominate this matchup and likely find a TKO finish in the later rounds. He has slate-breaking potential and a solid floor, despite this being Jenkins’ UFC debut. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Shainis is a vertically challenged ground and pound specialist who’s fighting style offers DFS upside, especially on DraftKings, but he once again finds himself in a really tough matchup. Shainis recently became the first fighter that Sodiq Yusuff ever submitted and it only took 30 seconds, which isn’t very encouraging for Shainis’ outlook moving forward. However, in fairness to him, Shainis took that fight on just relatively short notice and claimed to be coming back from a shoulder injury. So it’s fair to expect a better version of him here with a full camp to prepare. Although speaking of camps, he did have to find a new one after the UFC essentially shut Glory MMA down, where Shainis had been training. Shainis also said the UFC would only pay to fly one cornerman out and he couldn’t afford to pay for the other two, so instead he asked a friend and his dad to pay their own ways to corner him for this matchup. So overall, his preparation has faced some hurdles, which isn’t ideal as he steps into enemy territory to take on a bright prospect in Jack Jenkins. The fact that Jenkins is making his UFC debut does add an element of uncertainty and Shainis’ recent disaster of debut should keep his ownership way down. Those are probably the only reasons we’ll consider having any exposure to Shainis in tournaments, as we fully expect him to lose this fight. The odds imply he has a 26% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Jamie Mullarkey
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Mullarkey had been scheduled to face Nasrat Haqparast here but Haqparast dropped out and Prado was announced as the replacement on January 5th. Mullarkey is coming off a split-decision win over Michael Johnson after getting knocked out in the second round by a surging Jalin Turner just before that. Mullarkey has won three of his last four fights and just before his loss to Turner, Mullarkey knocked out Devonte Smith and Khama Worthy. Prior to the pair of early wins, Mullarkey lost decisions to Brad Riddell and Fares Ziam in his first two UFC fights, but he arguably should have gotten the nod against Ziam.
In his last fight, we saw a somewhat slower start overall before Johnson dropped Mullarkey in the final two minutes of the first round. However, Mullarkey was able to recover and return to his feet and then hurt Johnson late in the round just before the round ended. The strong finish to the round was enough for two of the three judges to give the round to Mullarkey, despite getting knocked down earlier. The momentum at the end of round one carried over into round two for Mullarkey, as he began to pull away in striking and won the round on all three scorecards. However, Johnson finished the fight strong in a closer third round, which he won on all three scorecards. That left the decision dependent on the first round, which came down to a single swing judge and Mullarkey won a split decision. The fight ended with Mullarkey ahead 96-66 in significant strikes and 96-68 in total strikes, while both fighters failed to land a takedown on two attempts apiece.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Mullarkey has 10 wins by KO, three by submission, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out three times and has two decision losses. One of those KO losses notably was against Alexander Volkanovski before they joined the UFC. Twelve of Mullarkey’s last 13 wins have come early and he’s coming off his first decision victory since his second pro fight back in 2014. His last six finishes have all come by knockout. Mullarkey notably fought at 145 lb until 2018, when he moved up to 155 lb. While he’s a BJJ black belt, he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2015.
Overall, Mullarkey is well-rounded but falls in love with his striking and gets sucked into brawls. In his six UFC fights, Mullarkey has landed 10 takedowns on 33 attempts (30.3% accuracy), while getting taken down himself on 3 of 9 opponent attempts (66.7% defense). He’s shown the ability to take a beating and keep on going and now he’ll be fighting in front of his home crowd. He’s still just 28 years old, although his style of fighting isn’t exactly conducive to a long career. Nevertheless, he’s still young enough that he should be continuing to make improvements.
Francisco Prado
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut at just 20 years old with just over a month to prepare, the Argentinian Prado is undefeated with a 100% finishing rate. His last two wins have both come by R1 TKO, but he’s gone back and forth between submission wins and knockouts throughout his career.
In his last fight, the fight remained standing for its entirety after his previous two finishes both came on the mat. Prado was content with keeping it standing and never looked for a takedown before knocking out his opponents 77 seconds into the first round. Both fighters appeared happy to throw strikes until someone went down and Prado was the last man standing.
Now 11-0 as a pro, Prado has five wins by KO/TKO and six by submission. Eight of those finishes have come in round one, two ended in the first half of round two, and one occurred in the opening two minutes of round three. He’s never been in a fight that made it past the 11:07 mark, and we haven’t seen his cardio truly tested. He also hasn’t faced much in terms of competition and this will be a major step up for him as he goes straight from fighting on an Ailin Perez undercard with Samurai Fight House to the UFC.
Overall, Prado is a young, aggressive finisher, who is generally looking to get fights to the ground to look for finishes. We have seen him partake in pure striking battles, but two of his last three finishes came on the ground. This just looks like a spot where the UFC is rushing a young kid into the organization based on his undefeated record and 100% finishing rate, opposed to him actually being ready to compete at the highest level. Prado looks strong and physical, but it’s hard to think he’s prepared for what he’ll go up against in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Mullarkey will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also eight years older than the 20-year-old Prado.
Prado enters this matchup with a lot of uncertainty surrounding him based on the level of competition and adversity he has faced. We haven’t really seen his durability or cardio tested, nor has he ever fought any high-level opponents. So yes, he’s looked physical and capable of finishing opponents on the Argentina regional scene, but we have no idea how that will translate to the UFC, especially for such a young kid. Our expectations are that he may start well but fade as the fight goes on, but there’s no guarantee he even starts well. Prado turned pro the same year Mullarkey made his UFC debut, so Mullarkey has a massive experience advantage. We expect him to piece Prado up on the feet and be fine on the mat, where Mullarkey’s a BJJ black belt. While we fully expect Mullarkey to win, the tougher question to answer is whether or not he’ll get a finish. It’s really hard to evaluate Prado’s chin/durability from his regional tape, and while most of Mullarkey’s wins comes early, he has gone the distance in three of his six UFC matches (1-2). Based on Mullarkey’s history of landing knockouts and the fact that he’ll have the home crowd behind him, we’ll say Mullarkey wins by R2 knockout, but we won’t be shocked if this makes it to the scorecards.
Our favorite bet here is “Mullarkey R2 KO” at +650.
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DFS Implications:
Mullarkey has been a boom or bust fantasy commodity, with scores of 109 and 128 in his two UFC knockout wins, but totals of just 24, 47, and 41 in his three losses, and then just 69 points in his recent decision victory. Working in his favor, 12 of his last 13 wins have come early and now he’ll face a step down in competition as he takes on a 20-year-old UFC newcomer. While Prado has never lost a fight, let alone been finished, he hasn’t been fighting much in terms of competition and we’re not getting too hung up on his record. Mullarkey will have the home crowd cheering him on and we expect to see him aggressively look for a knockout. However, there’s a good chance Prado will be looking to take him down, which has the potential to slow down the action. That just strengthens the notion that Mullarkey will need a finish here to score well. The odds imply he has a 70% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Prado’s undefeated record and 100% finishing rate look great on paper and give him some theoretical upside, but he’s shrouded in uncertainty as he comes into his UFC debut without ever being tested by any legitimate competition. Prado has also never been in a fight that made it to the 12 minute mark and has only seen the third round once, so we don’t know how his cardio will hold up or how durable he truly is. Mullarkey should test both of those and also has the grappling background to defend Prado’s wrestling. So overall, this looks like a tough matchup for Prado all around, but we should learn a lot about him here. Mullarkey has been knocked out three times in his career, so it makes sense to have some exposure to Prado based on his finishing ability, but we’ll be lower than the field on him The odds imply Prado has a 30% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Kleydson Rodrigues
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Rodrigues will be looking to bounce back from a split-decision loss in his UFC against C.J. Vergara. Leading up to that loss, Rodrigues won six straight fights and punched his ticket to the UFC with a decision win on DWCS in September 2021. Rodrigues has only fought twice in the last 40 months, after he had two fights canceled leading up to his appearance on DWCS, and then another fight canceled following his UFC debut. While he gassed out in his recent debut, he went 15 minutes on DWCS just before that, although his opponent never pushed him in that fight as Rodrigues dominated from start to finish. Also worth pointing out, Rodrigues’ opponent in that fight, Santo Curatolo, has lost four of his last five fights with the other three losses all ending in knockouts. Rodrigues won the vacant Jungle Fight Flyweight belt with a second round rear-naked choke in his last fight before going on DWCS, which was all the way back in 2019.
In his last fight, Rodrigues took CJ Vergara down in the first round, Vergara but did a good job of returning to his feet after not spending much time on the mat. Rodrigues tried to take Vergara down again in round two, but Vergara reversed the attempt and ended up in top position, where he spent four minutes beating up Rodrigues for essentially the entire round before Rodrigues was able to reverse the position in the final minute and then return to his feet. Rodrigues was clearly gassing at that point, but was able to land a takedown in round three and control Vergara for nearly half the round. Despite looking exhausted, Rodrigues continued to be aggressive down the stretch, but Vergara showed his durability and never looked hurt. The pivotal third round was close, but two of the judges thought Vergara did enough to win the match, despite trailing in significant strikes, takedowns, submission attempts, reversals, and control time in the final round. The fight ended with Rodrigues ahead 81-71 in significant strikes, but Vergara led 155-93 in total strikes. Rodrigues landed two of his seven takedown attempts with over three minutes of control time, while notching a submission attempt and two reversals. Vergara never attempted any takedowns of his own.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Rodrigues has three wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. Four of his five finishes have come in the first round, with the other ending midway through round two. Both of his career losses ended in split-decisions and he’s never been finished. Only four of his seven wins have come against opponents with winning records, so he still hasn’t faced the toughest competition to this point.
Overall, Rodrigues is a dangerous and aggressive Brazilian striker with good size for the Flyweight division. He’s also shown the ability to finish fights on the mat, but looks most dangerous on the feet as he throws a plethora of different attacks at his opponents. He’s incredibly explosive both in his striking and on the mat, as he’s shown the ability to explode out of bottom position. However, it’s possible he relies on his athleticism a little too much at times, which may have contributed to him gassing out in his last fight. He’s still a relatively young prospect at just 27 years old, so it will be interesting to see what improvements he’s made coming into his second Octagon appearance.
UPDATE: Rodrigues missed weight by 1 lb!
Shannon Ross
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Despite getting knocked out in the second round of his recent DWCS match, Ross was awarded a UFC contract for his action-packed performance. He also learned after the match that he had competed with a ruptured appendix and blood poisoning, which the UFC also was apparently impressed by. Ross has dropped two of his last three matches, with both of those losses coming early. His last win was a 2020 decision and his last finish was a 2019 R3 TKO. Three of his last four fights have ended early, and if you watch him fight it’s no wonder why.
In Ross’ last fight, Vinicius Salvador knocked him down 90 seconds into the first round, but Ross was somehow able to survive with a long leash from the ref. Salvador continued his high-volume assault and landed a second knockdown with just over a minute remaining in the round. Again, Ross was able to recover and survive, and the two returned to standing and trading until the round ended. Ross tried to mount a comeback in the second round and landed several big shots, but Salvador found the mark once again and dropped him late in the round as he insanely landed his third knockdown in the fight, and this time the action was quickly stopped. The fight ended with Salvador ahead in significant strikes 79-67 and in total strikes 94-72. Both fighters failed to land their only takedown attempt.
Now 12-6 as a pro, Ross has six wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and five decision victories. He has three first round finishes, and two in each of rounds two and three. Four of his last five finishes have occurred in the later rounds. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has three decision losses. Two of his losses ended in round one, with the other coming in round two.
Overall, Ross is an aggressive brawler who also has the ability to mix in wrestling and is a BJJ purple belt. He’s from Sydney, Australia and will be making his UFC debut in front of his home Australian crowd, so we’ll see how he handles that pressure and support. He said he still works full time as a mechanic, which certainly isn’t ideal when you’re fighting at the highest level. At 33 years old and with 13 years of pro experience, he’s more seasoned than your typical debuting fighter and won both the Eternal MMA and Nitro MMA Flyweight belts on the Australian regional scene.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’6” but Rodrigues will have a 1” reach advantage. Ross is six years older than the 27-year-old Rodrigues.
This sets up as a fun action-packed match between two exciting fighters. Rodrigues is insanely explosive, but that may come at the expense of his gas tank in higher paced fights. Meanwhile, Ross is an aggressive brawler who pushes the pace and is more focused on offense than defense. That has resulted in him getting finished in three of his last four losses, and increases the chances we see a finish here. It will also test the cardio of Rodrigues if this fight makes it to the back half. However, with Ross making his UFC debut in front of his home crowd, it’s also possible we see an adrenaline dump from him. That adds some uncertainty to this matchup if it makes it past the midway point. There’s no question that Rodrigues is the more technical of the two and has the brighter future, but we saw him gas out in his recent UFC debut and he still needs to show that cardio won’t be an ongoing concern for him at the UFC level. All five of Rodrigues’ career finishes have come in under eight minutes with four of those ending in round one, and he’s looked the most dangerous early on in fights. All three of Ross’ early losses also ended in the first two rounds and he was insanely knocked down three times in less than two rounds of action in his last match. There’s a good chance Rodrigues can find a finish in the first half of this fight, but if that doesn’t come to fruition we could see him slow down in the later stages, increasing both the potential for this to go the distance or for Rodrigues to get finished late. With all that said, we’ll still say Rodrigues finds a finish in the opening round and a half.
Our favorite bet here is “Rodrigues/Ross FDGTD” at -134.
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DFS Implications:
Rodrigues is an explosive fighter who lands a good amount of striking volume and will also mix in takedowns. We saw him come out hot in the first round of his last fight, but then get controlled on the mat in round two and gas out in round three. That’s somewhat concerning for his outlook moving forward, but it was his UFC debut so we’re more willing to give him a pass. Now he’ll be the one with Octagon experience going up against a debuting fighter and this looks like a great bounce back spot for him. Ross has been finished in the opening two rounds in two of his last three fights and got knocked down three times in less than two rounds of action in his recent R2 KO loss on DWCS. When you combine that with Rodrigues’s explosive striking, this looks like a potential eruption spot. However, Ross will also be fighting in front of his home Australian crowd and if he can survive the first round and a half, we could see Rodrigues slow down in the back half of the fight. That will make it tougher for Rodrigues to return value at his expensive price tag if this fight makes it to the judges or even past the second round, unless he finds more grappling success than expected in addition to putting up a big striking total. In his recent decision loss, Rodrigues scored 61 DraftKings points, and his decision win on DWCS would have only been good for 69 points. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Ross looks like an aggressive brawler who’s fighting style is perfectly suited for DFS production, for both him and his opponent. Three of his last four fights have ended early and he’s constantly looking to engage in high-volume striking exchanges. He’ll also mix in wrestling at times, but hasn’t looked great at holding opponents down, which is perfect when it comes to DFS as it keeps the action moving, while tacking on takedowns. While Ross will have the home crowd behind him, this looks like a really tough matchup for him and he appears to be outgunned everywhere except for maybe in cardio. That creates a sliver of hope that he can find a late finish if Rodrigues gasses out, but it’s also possible Ross gasses out himself under the pressure of making his debut. Rodrigues has also never been finished in his career, so Ross is more of a guy we’ll be considering in DFS down the road. However, if he does pull off the upset, he’ll likely end up in winning lineups at his cheap price tag, keeping him in the tournament play discussion. The odds imply he has a 26% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Josh Culibao
5th UFC Fight (2-1-1)Coming off a split-decision win over a dangerous striker in Seung Woo Choi, Culibao has gone the distance in three straight fights (2-0-1), after suffering his only career loss in his February 2020 short notice UFC debut against Jalin Turner, which Culibao took up a weight class. That was the only time in his career he’s ever fought at 155 lb, so he really is a true 145 pounder. Following that loss, Culibao fought a really tough Charles Jourdain to a draw, before finally notching his first UFC win in a decision victory over Nuerdanbieke Shayilan, leading up to his most recent win. The last time Culibao finished anybody was in a 2019 R1 TKO just before he joined the UFC.
In his last fight, we saw a slow start to the first round before Culibao dropped Choi and looked to have him nearly out of there. However, Choi hung on for dear life and then responded with a flurry of his own strikes to close the round. Culibao landed another knockdown in round two, but again, Choi was able to survive. Choi showed a lot of heart to fight back from adversity in the match and finished strong, landing a rare takedown in the third round and controlling Culibao’s back for a period of time. Despite finishing behind in striking in the first two rounds and getting knocked down in both rounds, one judge somehow scored the fight for Choi, which eventually resulted in a split decision. There was no doubt that Culibao won each of the first two rounds, so take the split decision with a grain of salt. Culibao finished ahead in significant strikes 51-46 and in total strikes 69-64, while Choi landed one of his two takedown attempts with half a round of control time. The big differentiator was the two knockdowns Culibao landed.
Now 10-1-1 as a pro, Culibao has five wins by TKO and five decision victories. Three of his five TKO wins occurred in the first round, although two of those came in his first three pro fights. His other two TKOs came in the championship rounds of 2016 and 2018 fights. His only loss came in a second round TKO in his UFC debut, although he also has a draw on his record. Interestingly, five of his six decisions have been split/majority.
Overall, Culibao isn’t the most impressive fighter, but looked better in his last fight and showed he does have solid power in his hants. However, he still doesn’t offer anything in terms of wrestling really, and while he’s attempted 11 takedowns in his four UFC fights, he’s yet to land one. He also doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, averaging just 3.06 SSL and SSA/min, and no one has landed more than 55 significant strikes in any of his UFC fights. We’ve also seen him slow down in the third round of fights, although now he’ll be fighting in front of his home Australian crowd, so maybe we’ll see that drive him a little harder.
Melsik Baghdasaryan
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Baghdasaryan has withdrawn from his last two scheduled matchups and it’s now been 15 months since he last competed. He landed an impressive R2 knockout in his UFC debut, before fighting to a frustrating decision against an opponent who refused to engage in his last match. Baghdasaryan also won a decision on DWCS in September 2020, and was still awarded a UFC contract based on his explosive potential, even though he was unable to find a finish. Baghdasaryan had finished his previous four opponents in a combined 62 seconds with ridiculous fight times of 14, 32, 9 and 7 seconds. So unsurprisingly he came into his DWCS fight looking for another quick finish. His opponent, Dennis Buzukja, came in with a 5-1 pro record having never been finished and was able to absorb a ton of violent shots to force Baghdasaryan into the second round for the first time in his career. Baghdasaryan predictably began to slow down at that point after landing 44 significant strikes in round one with a crazy 73% accuracy rate. After appearing to gas and then lose the second round, Baghdasaryan bounced back in the third round and regained his striking lead, however, he did almost get armbarred at one point and his grappling definitely looks like a liability.
In his last fight, Baghdasaryan faced a short notice debuter in Bruno Souza, after Baghdasaryan’s original opponent dropped out. A karate style fighter, Souza was mostly content with circling away from contact, but finally got a little more aggressive in the third round to try and save face in a fight he was clearly losing. Baghdasaryan finished ahead in significant strikes 75-46 and 77-47 in total strikes, while Souza went 0 for 4 on his takedown attempts.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Baghdasaryan has five wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. The first four knockouts of his career all came in 32 seconds or less, while the most recent ended midway through round two. The only loss of his career was a first round submission in his 2014 pro debut. Following the loss, he switched to boxing and kickboxing from 2015 to 2018. However, following a 2018 kickboxing decision loss in a KJP Championship fight, Baghdasaryan decided to return to MMA in 2019 and proceeded to rattle off four straight lightning fast first round finishes over a six month span before being invited onto DWCS a year later.
Overall, Baghdasaryan is an ultra-aggressive southpaw kickboxer, who doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling and tends to slow down later in fights. He looks extremely dangerous early on in fights, but that explosiveness comes at a price and he only has a round or a round and half of hard fighting in him. Baghdasaryan routinely gets warned for his extended fingers, so it’s probably just a matter of time before he accidentally pokes an opponent in the eye and has a point deducted or even worse, has a fight stopped.
Fight Prediction:
Culibao will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also three years younger than the 31-year-old Baghdasaryan.
Neither of these two have ever landed a takedown in the UFC and this sets up as a fun striking battle, although it wouldn’t be that surprising if Culibao looked to change levels at some point based on Baghdasaryan’s non-existent ground game. Neither guy has ever been knocked out and they both tend to slow down later in fights, but Baghdasaryan is the flashier striker with the more suspect gas tank. Baghdasaryan has yet to face any tough competition, while Culibao has already gone up against several dangerous strikers at the UFC level. So this will be a step up in competition for Baghdasaryan, although he has a ton of combat sports experience outside of MMA. While Baghdasaryan looks like the superior striker, his questionable gas tank makes it tougher to fully trust him over the course of 15 minutes against legitimate competition. He’s always live for an early knockout, but if the fight lasts longer than 7-8 then this becomes a crapshoot and most likely ends in a close decision, unless Baghdasaryan completely gasses out and Culibao finishes him late. Culibao has notably been to six decisions in his career, and somehow five of them were split, with four of those splits going his way and another ending in a draw.
Our favorite bet here is “Melsik Baghdasaryan R1 or R2 KO” at +430.
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DFS Implications:
Culibao has yet to put up a usable DFS score, despite landing a pair of knockdowns in his last fight. While it looked like he was close to securing his first early win with the organization, the fight ultimately ended in a split decision and Culibao scored just 76 DraftKings points. Prior to that, he scored just 58 points in a decision win, after scoring only 34 points in a draw. So he’s shown us time after time that he can’t score well in fights that go the distance. He only averages 3.06 SSL/min and has failed to land any of his 11 takedown attempts in the UFC. He’s also never submitted anybody, so he’s not very well equipped to attack Baghdasaryan’s biggest weakness, which is his grappling. That leaves Culibao reliant on being the first fighter to ever knock Baghdasaryan out, although at least Culibao will have the home crowd behind him. The odds imply Culibao has a 51% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Baghdasaryan is a one-dimensional kickboxer, but he’s so dangerous on the feet that it somewhat makes up for his lack of grappling and cardio. He’s won seven straight fights, with five KOs, including four in 32 seconds or less. So he’s demonstrated massive upside, but will now face a step up in competition following a 15 month layoff, and in enemy territory. Baghdasaryan only scored 61 DraftKings points in his last decision win, and in the only other decision victory of his career, which came on DWCS, he only would have scored 79 DraftKings points and 81 points on FanDuel. So similar to Culibao, Baghdasaryan needs to land a knockout to score well, and neither of these two have ever been knocked out in their careers. The odds imply Baghdasaryan has a 49% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Tyson Pedro
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Pedro had been scheduled to fight a debuting Zhang Mingyang here, but he dropped out and Bukauskas was announced as the replacement on January 25th, just two and a half weeks before this fight.
Coming off two of the easiest matchups you could ask for in the Light Heavyweight division, Pedro was gifted Isaac Villanueva and Harry Hunsucker in his last two matches and easily knocked them both out in the first round. Prior to the win over Villanueva in April 2022, Pedro hadn’t competed since December 2018 when he blew out his knee against Mauricio Rua and was finished in the third round because of that. Following the injury Pedro dealt with multiple knee surgeries as he tried to work his way back. Looking back before the injury, Pedro started his pro career in 2013 with six straight first round finishes, including a 2016 submission win over Khalil Rountree in Pedro’s UFC debut, followed by a 2017 R1 TKO win over Paul Craig. Pedro then made it past the first round for the first time in his career and lost a 2017 decision to Ilir Latifi. Pedro bounced back in February 2018 with a first round submission win against Saparbek Safarov, but was then submitted himself in the first round by OSP in June 2018 leading up to his loss to Rua. In each of his last two losses, Pedro looked close to winning the fights in the first round, but was unable to close things out.
In his last fight, Pedro took on one of the worst fighters in the UFC in Harry Hunsucker, who was dropping down from Heavyweight after getting knocked out in under two minutes in each of his first two UFC matches. Pedro appeared to hurt Hunsucker with a nonchalant left jab a minute into the fight and then folded him over with a run-of-the-mill body kick. Pedro followed up with ground and pound for good measure but the fight was already over as Hunsucker never even showed up. They might as well have pulled someone out of the crowd to fight Pedro and it was one of the most pathetic performances you’ll ever see from Hunsucker. The “fight” lasted 64 seconds and Pedro finished ahead 6-2 in striking.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Pedro has four wins by KO and five by submission, with all nine of his victories ending in the first round. He’s 0-2 in fights that have lasted longer than five minutes, with a 2018 R3 TKO loss where he suffered a knee injury and a 2017 decision loss in his only trip to the judges. He also has a 2018 first round submission loss to OSP on his record, and is just 3-3 in his last six fights.
Overall, Pedro holds black belts in both Japanese and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as Kempo. While he’s a decent grappler, Pedro has only landed two takedowns on eight attempts in the UFC and both of those came in his UFC debut. Since then he’s gone 0 for 6 on his attempts and didn’t attempt a takedown in his last two fights. He’s a solid but patient striker and throws good leg kicks, but he only averages 2.95 SSL/min and 2.35 SSA/min. He’s still never won a fight that lasted longer than five minutes, but he’s only seen the second round twice in his career and got injured in one of those. The last time Pedro fought in front of his home Australian crowd was when he suffered the knee injury in 2018, so it will be interesting to see how he handles his emotions.
Modestas Bukauskas
5th UFC Fight (1-3)After getting his knee blown out by Khalil Rountree in the second round of a September 2021 fight, Bukauskas got cut by the UFC and has since been working his way back to health and the big show. Once healthy he returned to Cage Warriors where he had been the former Light Heavyweight champ. Upon his return to Cage Warriors, Bukauskas won a decision over 37-year-old journeyman Lee Chadwick to immediately get back into CWFC title contention. He most recently fought for the vacant belt against 39-year-old Chuck Campbell, who Bukauskas knocked out early in the fourth round to recapture the belt he had vacated when he joined the UFC. Those two Cage Warriors fights took place less in November and December of 2022, so Bukauskas has been quite busy lately since returning from the knee injury he suffered 14 months prior.
Bukauskas originally made his UFC debut in July 2020 and got a slightly bizarre R1 TKO stoppage after the round ended. His opponent, Andreas Michailidis, shot for a takedown with under 10 seconds remaining in the round and Bukauskas landed several elbows that looked just barely legal to the side/back of Michailidis’ head. As the horn sounded, Michailidis lay hunched over, grasping the back of his head, right next to the door to the cage. The cornermen entered and the ref told Michailidis he had to get up so Michailidis began to sit up, but went to lean against what he thought was the cage. Instead he leaned against an open door and fell backwards, and the ref immediately stopped the fight. It appeared that he would have had a chance to push off the cage and stand up, had the door not been open—but he also didn’t look entirely there so who knows. That was Bukauskas’ seventh straight win at the time, all coming early, with five first round finishes. However, Bukauskas then lost three straight fights against tough opponents in Jimmy Crute, Michal Oleksiejczuk, and Khalil Rountree, leading to his release from the organization.
In his last fight, Bukauskas took early control of the center of the cage, but still looked somewhat tentative to throw strikes, as did his opponent, Chuck Campbell. That resulted in more feints being thrown than actual strikes in a slower paced fight. After basically nothing happened in the first three rounds, Bukauskas face planted Campbell in the opening seconds of round four with a walk off knockout.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Bukauskas has nine wins by KO/TKO, two by submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has one decision loss. After winning a decision in his 2015 pro debut, Bukauskas had 13 straight fights end early, with nine ending in the first round. However, since then he’s seen the second round in four straight fights, with three making it to round three and two going the distance.
Overall, Bukauskas is a Lithuanian kickboxer who’s a karate black belt, but has only attempted one takedown in his four UFC fights, which he failed to land. While he was able to successfully defend all four of the takedowns attempted against him in his four UFC fights, he did look susceptible to being taken down prior to joining the UFC. Bukauskas only averages 3.59 SSL/min and hasn’t been very aggressive in his UFC fights, often content with waiting on his opponents to throw first.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Pedro will have a 1” reach advantage.
These guys are both low volume strikers who work behind a lot of feints. Neither guy looks for many takedowns, but Pedro is the far superior grappler if the fight does hit the mat. They’ve both had to deal with knee injuries in the UFC, so overall there are several similarities we can point to. However, Pedro is better on the feet and the mat and does a good job of mixing in leg kicks that will test the confidence Bukauskas has in his recently surgically repaired knee. Based on how little striking volume each of these two throw and the fact that Pedro has never won a fight that made it past the first round, this fight seems to have a high potential to bust if Pedro can’t land a finish in the opening five minutes with limited opportunities to work with. It will be interesting to see if Pedro looks to mix in any more grappling, as his biggest advantage may come on the mat. If not, we’ll likely see a slow paced kickboxing match with far more feints being thrown than strikes. With that said, it’s hard to be overly confident that this fight goes the distance considering all of Pedro’s career wins have come early, as have four of Bukauskas’ five losses. Nevertheless, we’ll take Pedro to get his hand raised in a low-volume, disappointing decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Pedro DEC” at +320.
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DFS Implications:
Pedro is coming off two of the easiest matchups you could ever ask for and unsurprisingly landed first round knockouts in both of those. He’s still never won a fight that made it past the first round, although he’s only even seen the second round twice in 12 pro fights. He’s averaged 107 DraftKings points in his five UFC first round finishes, scoring 109 and 103 in his most recent two wins. After putting wet paper bags in front of him for his last two fights, the UFC is giving Pedro a slight step up in competition now against retread in Bukauskas who’s already been cut once by the organization. However, the only thing Bukauskas has really excelled at is slowing down fights and making them unenjoyable to watch. With that said, three of his four UFC fights have ended early, although we didn’t see a ton of striking volume in any of those, nor did anyone land any takedowns. With neither of these two landing much striking volume or takedowns, paired with the fact that Pedro has never won a fight beyond the first round, he looks reliant on landing another first round finish to return value at his high price tag. His recent two first round finishes should keep his ownership relatively high, which makes him an interesting fade in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Bukauskas scored 97 DraftKings points in a post R1 TKO victory in his 2020 UFC debut, but followed that up with three straight losses, and only scored 24 DraftKings points in a 2021 decision loss. So even at his cheaper price tag, Bukauskas needs a finish here to return a usable score. Pedro has been finished twice in his career, once in a first round submission, and then the other time in a R3 TKO caused by a knee injury. Bukauskas has essentially no chance of submitting Pedro, leaving him reliant on landing a knockout. While anything is possible, especially at the higher weight classes, we’d be surprised if Bukauskas got the job done here. The one argument for playing him in tournaments is that he’ll be a low-owned leverage spot against Pedro, but we prefer fading this fight overall. The odds imply Bukauskas has a 32% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Jimmy Crute
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Crute is coming off a 14 month layoff following ACL surgery after suffering back-to-back first round KO/TKO losses. After suffering what looked like a peroneal nerve injury against Anthony Smith that forced a post R1 doctor stoppage, Crute got knocked out in just 48 seconds by Jamahal Hill in his last match.
In his last fight, Hill made short work of Crute as he dropped him twice on his way to knocking him out in just 48 seconds. Both knockdowns resulted from Hill landing his lead right hook. Somehow, Hill wasn’t credited with an official knockdown on the first of the two. The quick 48 second fight ended with Crute ahead 6-4 in striking, while he failed to land his only takedown attempt.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Crute has five wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and three decision victories. All three of his career losses have ended in the first round, with two KO/TKOs and one submission. All of those losses occurred in his last five matches and his last six fights have ended in round one. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS match, the only time he’s seen the second round was in his UFC debut, which ended in a third round submission win over Paul Craig. Looking at this entire career, 11 of his 15 career fights have ended in the first round (8-3). Following the win over Craig, Crute knocked out Sam Alvey in the first round and then got submitted in R1 by Misha Cirkunov. He bounced back with a first round submission of his own against Michal Oleksiejczuk and then knocked out Modestas Bukauskas in 121 seconds.
Overall, Crute is a dangerous striker, a solid wrestler, and a BJJ black belt. The only weaknesses we see with him are that he doesn't have the longest arms or the best striking defense, and he’s not necessarily the quickest fighter in the striking exchanges. However, he has massive power, throws heavy leg kicks, and can dominate opponents with his wrestling. In his seven UFC fights, Crute has landed 12 of his 16 takedown attempts (75% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents 4 times on 10 attempts (60% defense). In a recent interview, Crute said he’s going to look like a different person on Saturday, so it will be interesting to see what adjustments we see.
Alonzo Menifield
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Fresh off his second straight first round knockout, Menifield has won four of his last five fights, with his only loss over that stretch ending in a close/questionable decision against William Knight. However, all four of those wins came against low-level or struggling opponents. He started the run with a first round submission win over a debuting Fabio Cherant and then won a decision against a washed up Ed Herman before losing a decision to Knight. He bounced back from the loss with a first round TKO over a fraudulent and debuting Askar Mozharov before most recently knocking out another washed up veteran in Misha Cirkunov, who’s lost four straight.
In Menifield’s last fight, Cirkunov tried to take him down in the opening seconds of the match, but Menifield easily defended it. While the fight only lasted 88 seconds, Menifield was patient with his attacks as he knew Cirkunov would be trying to get the fight to the ground. He defended all four of Cirkunov’s takedown attempts and made his strikes count without overextending himself and giving up his hips. As soon as he really connected with a clean combination of punches Cirkunov went down and the fight was stopped as Menifield landed a few last ground and pound strikes for good measure. It ended with Menifield ahead 8-5 in significant strikes and 8-6 in total strikes.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Menifield has 10 KOs, two submissions, and one decision win. He’s been knocked out once, with his other two losses both going the distance. Ten of his 12 early wins occurred in round one, with the other two ending in the opening minute of round two. His one early loss also ended in round two. All three of the decisions he’s been to in his career have come in his last seven fights, after his first nine pro matches all ended early. Menifield is just 1-3 in fights that have lasted longer than six minutes.
Overall, Menifield came into the UFC as a one-dimensional power puncher with cardio concerns, but has been trying to mix in a little more wrestling lately and fighting more methodically. He failed to land a takedown on four attempts in his first four UFC fights, but has landed four on seven attempts in his last five matches. Looking at his entire nine fight UFC career along with his two DWCS appearances, he’s landed 4 of his 13 takedown attempts (30.8% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents just 4 times on 27 attempts (85.2% defense). Two of those takedowns allowed came on his first DWCS fight, and he’s only been taken down twice on 23 attempts (91.3% defense) in his last 10 fights. So he has a really solid takedown defense and we rarely see him end up on his back. Menifield is a former college, CFL and Arena League football player, and while he has solid power, we’ve seen him slow down some later in fights. He only averages 3.91 SSL/min and and 3.24 SSA/min has only landed more than 44 significant strikes once in his career, which is when he landed 93 in a decision win over Ed Herman.
Fight Prediction:
Crute will have a 2” height advantage, but Menifield will have a 2” reach advantage.
This fight has the potential to go one of two ways—it will either be one of the most exciting fights on the card that ends in a first round finish, or it will be much slower paced than expected and end in a disappointing decision. Eight of Menifield’s nine UFC fights have either ended in first round finishes (5-0) or disappointing decisions (1-2). And while Crute has yet to go to the judges with the organization, he was nine seconds away from doing so in his debut, while his last six fights have all ended in first round finishes (3-3). Crute recently talked about how we won’t even recognize him out there following changes that he made during his long layoff since he last competed. Would it be at all surprising if we saw a more tentative version of him following two straight first round losses, knee surgery, and 14 months away? That’s not to say he’ll be a complete shell of himself, but we often see fighters come in with more patient game plans in his situation, and he may also have a tougher time incorporating his wrestling considering Menifield’s elite 85% takedown defense. We expect both of these two to respect the other’s power, and this fight has a lot of the ingredients for a let down spot.
With that said, everything’s relative and it’s still the most likely fight on the card to end early according to the oddsmakers, who are giving it a 73% chance to end inside the distance. Each fighter carries immense power and if anyone connects on something really cleanly, the fight may end right there. However, we very rarely see either one of them land a finish beyond the first round and if it can make it to round two there’s a good chance that it goes all the way to the judges. Crute has seen the second round just four times in his career, but three of those ended in decisions and the other ended with nine seconds remaining in the third round. Menifield has made it out of the first round six times. The first two of those ended in KO wins in the opening 32 seconds of round two, but three of the last four went the distance, with the other ending in a late R2 KO loss. So while the single most likely outcome is that this fight ends in the first round, a slower paced decision is probably more of a possibility than most people are accounting for. We’re going to go way out on a limb here and say Crute squeaks out a close decision in front of his home Australian crowd.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +330.
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DFS Implications:
Crute has the clear ability to break every DFS slate he’s on with his well rounded attack that includes powerful striking and wrestling. All seven of his UFC fights have ended early, with his last six ending in round one (3-3). He’s averaged 113 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, while he’s been finished in the first round in all three of his losses. The only time we’ve failed to see the winner in his fights put up a huge score was in his UFC debut, where he landed a third round submission and scored “just” 88 points. However, had that fight lasted just nine more seconds, Crute would have scored just 73 DraftKings points and 56 points on FanDuel in a decision win. While Crute has the ability to chain takedowns together at a frantic pace, Menifield has an elite 85% takedown defense, and it may be tougher for Crute to find as much wrestling success here. That could leave him more reliant on landing a knockout, and Menifield has only been finished once in his career. Crute is also coming off ACL surgery, a 14 month layoff, and back-to-back first round KO/TKO losses, so he could have some ring rust to knock off or simply be more tentative than he’s been in the past. He still projects to be highly owned despite those red flags, which adds to the merits of not going overboard on your exposure despite his affordable price tag. In the end,this looks like a boom or bust spot that will carry massive importance on the DFS slate as both guys will be highly owned and have shown huge scoring ceilings. So there’s tons of leverage to be gained by being underweight on the fight overall, but it’s obviously a risky position to take. The odds imply Crute has a 63% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 28% chance it comes in round one.
Menifield has been a R1 or bust DFS fighter throughout his career and he has never landed a finish beyond the six minute mark in a fight. He scored just 74 DraftKings points in his lone decision win, but five of his six UFC wins have ended in the opening five minutes. He most recently scored 103 points in a R1 knockout win after scoring a career best 123 DraftKings points just before that in another first round knockout. His previous three first round finishes were good for 98, 96, and 114 points. It’s important to keep in mind that he’s had a series of favorable matchups recently and this looks to be the toughest opponent of his career. So while Menifield has made improvements to his game, this will be a much tougher spot than he’s used to. Working in his favor, Crute has been finished in the first round in all three of his losses, although he was only really knocked out in one of those, which was against the current Light Heavyweight champ, Jamahal Hill. If this fight makes it out of the first round, Menifield will have a tougher time scoring well, and even at his cheaper price tag a later round finish or decision victory may not be enough for him to crack winning lineups unless we get another slate where only a couple of underdogs win, which is always possible. At his high ownership, going under the field is clearly the play here, you’ll just have to hold your breath for the opening five minutes. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Justin Tafa
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Tafa is 14 months removed from a first round KO win over Harry Hunsucker, also known as the worst Heavyweight of all time. Prior to that, Tafa lost a pair of decisions to low-level Heavyweights Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe. Tafa’s only other UFC win was a R1 KO of Juan Adams who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released after his third straight loss when he was knocked out by Tafa. That came just after Tafa got knocked out in the first round of his 2019 UFC debut by Yorgan De Castro, who was also debuting and then lost his next three fights before being cut.
In his last fight, Tafa knocked Hunsucker down in the opening 20 seconds. That left Hunsucker looking to grapple, but got his neck wrapped up and put on his back. As Hunsucker returned to his feet he looked for a Kimura and had Tafa in danger momentarily, but Tafa survived and returned to his feet. The two stood and traded for a moment, with Hunsucker trying to connect on big lopping punches and then attempting another takedown, but Tafa shucked him off and landed a huge left head kick to knock him out less than two minutes into the fight. Both fighters only landed five strikes in the fight, while Hunsucker failed to land his only official takedown.
Now 9-3 as a pro, all five of Tafa’s career wins have come by KO, while he’s also been knocked out once and has two decision losses. Three of his KO wins ended in round one, with the other two occurring in round two. He won his first three pro fights on the Australian regional scene, all in the first two rounds, before surprisingly getting called up to the UFC with just three fights on his record.
Overall, Tafa is your stereotypical Heavyweight kickboxer who’s mostly just looking to land heavy bombs on the feet. He did mix it up a little in his fight against Felipe as he attempted two takedowns, but he failed to land either and is definitely not a grappler. We’ve yet to see him defeat anyone even remotely decent.
Parker Porter
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Looking to bounce back from a first round submission loss to Jailton Almeida, Porter had gone into that fight on a three fight winning streak, all by decision. Prior to the string of decision victories, Porter was knocked out in the first round of his short notice UFC debut against Chris Daukaus. Porter is now 37 years old and was once knocked out by Jon Jones a lifetime ago back in 2008.
In his recent decision win over Baudot, Porter landed far fewer significant strikes than in each of his previous two fights, but he did land two takedowns on eight attempts with six and a half minutes of control time. Baudot actually finished ahead in significant strikes 55-43, while Porter led in total strikes 82-61. In his previous two decision wins, Porter outlanded his opponents 149-117 and 126-114 in significant strikes.
In his last fight, Porter faced grappling ace, Jailton Almeida, who was moving up from Light Heavyweight, but has murdered everyone he’s faced in the UFC. Almeida landed an early takedown in round one and controlled Porter on the mat for the next four and half minutes before eventually taking his back and forcing a tap through a rear-naked choke late in round one. The fight ended with Almeida ahead 18-0 in significant strikes and 36-0 in total strikes.
Now 12-7 as a pro, Porter has five wins by KO, three by submission, and four decisions. All seven of his losses have come early, with three KOs, three submissions, and one DQ. Six of his seven early losses occurred in round one, while two of his three submission wins came in round two, and three of his five knockout victories took place in round three. It’s been 12 years since he finished an opponent in the first round.
Overall, Porter is a Heavyweight journeyman who throws a good amount of volume and mixes in grappling, but lacks knockout power or overly impressive submission skills. After only one of his first 15 pro fights went the distance, Porter has now been to the judges in three of his last four fights and has yet to finish an opponent at the UFC level. He likes going for kimura and keylock submissions, but hasn’t landed one since 2019, with his second most recent submission win occurring in 2015. His only two KO/TKO wins since 2011 both came in the third round. He relies on his volume and grappling to outland his way to decision wins and normally sets a high pace for such a big guy, averaging 6.49 SSL/min and 6.32 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” but Porter will have a 1” reach advantage. Tafa is eight years younger than the 37-year-old Porter.
This low-level Heavyweight fight sets up for a ton of volume to be landed as she two guys rank #1 and #2 on the slate in significant strikes absorbed and are also both in the top top for significant strikes landed. Porter is the busier of the two and will also mix in grappling and if we were setting the line we would have made him a slight favorite. Recency bias may lead people to believe that Tafa is a legitimate knockout threat, but finishing Harry Hunsucker shouldn’t count for anything. Prior to that Tafa had lost a pair of decisions in similar spots to this and we expect this fight to resemble those two. We like Porter to outland his way to a decision win here.
Our favorite bet here is “Porter DEC” at +360.
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DFS Implications:
Tafa is a pure R1 KO or bust play who couldn’t top 42 DraftKings points in either of his recent two decision losses. While this does setup for a large amount of striking volume in this matchup, Tafa doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling and we still don’t see him scoring enough without a finish to be useful. His recent R1 KO win over the appropriately named Harry Hunsucker will leave some of the field chasing ghosts, but we’d be surprised if Tafa was able to knock Porter out. With that said, anything can happen in a low-level Heavyweight fight and Porter has been finished in all of his career losses, so we can’t 100% rule out the possibility that Tafa is able to land something clean and put him out. However, we do believe his chances of making that happen are significantly lower than what the odds suggest. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
In his three UFC decision wins, Porter put up DraftKings scores of 77, 101, and 106. He’s shown the ability to consistently land a ton of striking volume, while also mixing in some grappling to further boost his scoring. However, he’s yet to show any finishing ability inside of the UFC Octagon and also hasn’t landed a finish in the first round of any fight since 2011. That likely caps his ceiling to some extent, but his floor is massive when he wins. At his cheap price tag, he doesn’t need to put up a slate-breaking score to end up in winning tournament lineups and he looks like one of the best underdog plays on the slate. Tafa averages 5.94 SSA/min, which is the second most on the slate after only Porter himself. So this sets up as a DFS friendly matchup and as long as Porter doesn’t get knocked out, we like his chances of outlanding his way to another high-volume decision win. The odds imply he has a 47% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Jack Della Maddalena
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Continuing to slice through the opposition, Della Maddalena has knocked out all three of his UFC opponents in the first round. In fairness, two of those finishes were teed up against dubious competition, while the other came against a one-dimensional grappler. After getting finished in each of his first two pro fights, Della Maddalena has won 13 straight, with 12 of those ending early, all in the first two rounds. The only time he’s required the judges in his career was when he went on DWCS in 2021 and faced an incredibly durable Ange Loosa, who’s never been finished in his career. Following that decision victory, Della Maddalena knocked out a short notice debuter in Pete Rodriguez. He followed that up with two more first round knockouts against Ramazan Emeev and then most recently Danny Roberts. Prior to joining the UFC, Della Maddalena was the five-time Eternal MMA Welterweight Champion in Australia.
In his last fight, Della Maddalena went straight to work, landing a lengthy punching combination in the opening minute and then dropping Roberts 75 seconds into the first round. The fight almost ended right there, but Roberts was narrowly able to survive for the moment and return to his feet. Not rushing the finish, Della Maddalena calmly picked Roberts apart and then really hurt him with a series of body shots before going up top to finish the job. The fight ended with Della Maddalena ahead 33-5 in significant strikes and 41-5 in total strikes. ROberts failed to land the only takedown attempted in the fight, while Della Maddalena landed a pair of knockdowns.
Now 13-2 as a pro, Della Maddalena has 11 wins by KO, one by submission, and one decision victory. He got knocked out in the third round of his 2016 pro debut, and was then submitted in the first round of his next fight, but hasn’t lost since that 2016 submission defeat. Seven of Della Maddalena’s 12 finishes have come in round one, with the other five ending in round two, and he’s only seen the third round twice in his career, and only once in his last 14 matches.
Overall, Della Maddalena relies mostly on his crisp boxing to win fights, but he is a BJJ brown belt and also has some Judo experience. He’s also a former rugby player and an all around tough and durable fighter. He leads the slate in striking volume, averaging 8.45 SSL/min and does a good job of mixing in devastating body shots with his punching combinations. His striking is almost entirely boxing based and it’s rare to see him mix in many leg kicks. After landing four leg kicks over three rounds on DWCS, he’s only landed one in his three UFC fights.
Randy Brown
15th UFC Fight (10-4)Fresh off a decision win over Francisco Trinaldo, Brown has won four straight with his last three ending with the judges. Prior to defeating Trinaldo, Brown won a split decision against power puncher Khaos Williams, following a decision victory over Jared Gooden. Brown’s only loss in his last seven fights was a 2020 R2 KO against Vicente Luque, while Brown also got knocked out by Niko Price in the second round of a 2018 match, and submitted in the second round of a 2016 fight by Michael Graves. Brown’s one other UFC loss was a 2017 decision against Belal Muhammad.
In Brown’s last fight, we saw your normal slower paced start that you typically get with a Francisco Trinaldo fight, but Brown was then able to knock Trinaldo down midway through the first round with a straight right hand down the middle. However, Trinaldo quickly bounced back to his feet and then looked for a takedown, which Brown stopped with a blatant fence grab that went unpunished. The fight did eventually end up on the mat and after a brief scramble Brown was able to look for a choke attempt before the round ended. Brown then outlanded Trinaldo in the second round, before getting controlled for the majority of round three. Brown ultimately won a unanimous 29-28 decision, but he arguably should have been deducted a point for the fence grab in round one, which would have resulted in a draw. The fight ended with Brown ahead 60-40 in significant strikes, while Trinaldo led 82-65 in total strikes. Trinaldo landed one of his four takedown attempts with 5:21 in control time, while Brown failed to land his only attempt.
Now 16-4 as a pro, Brown has six wins by KO/TKO, five by submission, and five decisions. Five of his six knockout wins came in the later rounds, including four in round two. However, his last two finishes both came by submission and he hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2019. Three of his five submission wins also occurred in the later rounds, with two ending in round two. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has one decision loss. All three of his early losses occurred in the second round and amazingly 9 of his 20 pro fights have ended in round two (6-3). Only one of his last 14 fights has ended in the first round, which was a 2021 submission win over Alex Oliveira.
Overall, Brown is a BJJ brown belt and a well-rounded fighter who can compete both on the feet and the mat. He’s landed seven takedowns in his 14 UFC fights, but has never landed more than one in a match. Because Brown is so tall, he has looked vulnerable to leg strikes as he has a wider stance and skinny legs. We saw Luque chew up Brown’s legs with 26 leg strikes before eventually finishing him late in round two of a 2020 match and Belal Muhammad landed 43 on his way to winning a decision over Brown back in 2017.
Fight Prediction:
Brown will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. Della Maddalena is six years younger than the 32-year-old Brown.
Della Maddalena will be fighting in front of his home Perth crowd for this one and undoubtedly will be looking to put on a show. However, this looks like the toughest test of his career as he faces a well-rounded UFC veteran in Randy Brown. If you’re Brown, you have to be looking at ways to slow Della Maddalena down, whether it be by grappling, pushing him up against the cage, or simply trying to keep the fight at kicking range where Brown can maximize his reach and height advantage. On the flipside, Della Maddalena will be looking to close the distance to get his hands on Brown, while ripping violent body shots. While Brown has been vulnerable to getting his lead leg chewed up, Della Maddalena has only landed a singles leg strike in his three UFC fights and is predominantly a boxer. Perhaps he’ll try to add in some leg strikes based on the matchup, but he doesn't appear setup to truly capitalize on that area of weakness for Brown. That leaves Della Maddalena reliant on his boxing to find another knockout, but he’s looked phenomenal in that regard up to this point. While Brown may be able to contain Della Maddalena at times early on, we’d be surprised if he was able to actually stop him and we like Della Maddalena’s body shots to add up once again and for him to land another knockout in the opening two rounds. We’ll give Brown some respect and say this one makes it out of round one before Della Maddalena knocks Brown out in the second round.
Our favorite bet here is “Jack Della Maddalena ITD” at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Della Maddalena has absolutely dominated all three of his UFC opponents, finishing all three of them in the first round with a boxing barrage of body and head shots. He averaged 117 DraftKings points in those three wins, which has not gone unnoticed by the field, as Della Maddalena’s DraftKings ownership has checked in at 40%, 39%, and 61% in those three fights. He’ll now face the toughest test of his career in longtime UFC veteran Randy Brown, but we don’t expect to see a major drop off in Della Maddalena’s ownership. And in fairness, why would there be the way Della Maddalena has been knifing through the opposition. And while Brown has 14 fights worth of UFC experience, he’s also been finished in three of his four UFC losses. So there’s no real reason to think Della Maddalena can’t find another finish here, especially with his home Perth crowd behind him. Della Maddalena’s rabid striking pace keeps him in play even with a later finish, although his decision win on DWCS would have only scored 76 DraftKings points and 85 points on FanDuel. So at his high price tag he still needs a finish here to be useful, as he doesn’t add much of anything in terms of grappling. It’s also possible that he gets priced out of the winning tournament lineups with a later round finish if Brown can slow the fight down, but no one’s been able to slow Della Maddalena down lately. He has a massive floor and ceiling and will be owned accordingly. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Brown has averaged 82 DraftKings in his 10 UFC wins and has only topped 96 points in two of those—a 2016 R2 KO win and a 2021 R1 submission victory. He scored 110 points in each of those finishes but returned scores of just 90, 96, and 60 in his other three UFC early wins. He’s averaged just 70 points in his five UFC decision wins, failing to top 77 points in any of those, and he’s never landed more than one takedown in a fight. Now he’s on a collision course with a buzz saw in Della Maddalena and this will be a really tough spot for Brown to pull off the upset, let alone score well. Even at his cheap price tag, Brown will likely need a finish to end up in tournament winning lineups and even then there’s a slight chance he could get outscored and left out based on some of his past scoring. However, if Brown does somehow pull off the upset and score well, he’ll be a massive leverage play against the ever popular Della Maddalena. That at least gives us reason to have some exposure, just realize you’re likely lighting that money on fire. The odds imply he has a26X% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Yair Rodriguez
13th UFC Fight (9-2, NC)With just two fights in the last 40 months, Rodriguez has struggled to stay active in recent years. He’s coming off a R1 TKO win over Brian Ortega, but the fight barely got going before Ortega suffered a freak shoulder injury to stop the action late in round one. Prior to that, Rodriguez lost a high-volume five-round decision to Max Holloway, after taking 25 months off following an October 2019 three round decision win over Jeremy Stephens. Rodriguez absorbed 230 significant strikes against Holloway, the 7th most in a fight in UFC history. And after landing just five total takedowns in his first 24 UFC fights combined, Holloway landed three against Rodriguez on five attempts. Rodriguez was notably able to land 57 leg strikes as he attacked Holloway’s calf from the start, but Holloway was able to fight through the damage.
Rodriguez had been scheduled to face Zabit Magomedsharipov in August 2020, but ended up withdrawing after suffering an ankle fracture. Then he was booked to face Holloway in July 2021, but Holloway withdrew and the fight was pushed back four months. Before the loss to Holloway, Rodriguez’s only other UFC defeat was a 2017 post round two doctor stoppage TKO against Frankie Edgar. Rodriguez was a second away from losing a close five-round decision to The Korean Zombie in 2018, but landed a highlight reel knockout as the final second ticked off the clock to steal the win. Had he lost that fight, he would be just 2-3 plus a No Contest in his last six matches.
In his last fight, Rodriguez and Ortega traded on the feet for the opening minute before Ortega looked for his first takedown along the fence. Rodriguez did a good job of defending the attempts over the next three minutes until the two finally returned to space with about a minute and a half left in the round. Rodriguez then landed some good strikes that left Ortega once again looking to grapple along the fence. Ortega was finally able to land a takedown, which Rodriguez responded to by looking for an armbar off his back. Before Rodriguez could lock anything in, Ortega collapsed to his back as his shoulder dislocated and the fight was stopped. You can argue that the submission Rodriguez was looking for caused the injury, but he never actually locked anything in and there was no official submission attempt. It was basically Rodriguez tugging on Ortega’s arm from an awkward position and then Ortega’s shoulder randomly popped up. Regardless of how much credit you want to give Rodriguez, the results are the same and it officially goes down as a R1 TKO win. The match ended with Rodriguez ahead 23-22 in significant strikes and 48-26 in total strikes, while Ortega landed one of his five takedown attempts with 2:24 on control time.
Now 14-3 as a pro, Rodriguez has five wins by KO/TKO, three by submission, and six decisions. He also has two KO/TKO losses and one decision defeat. Not counting his No Contest that was stopped 15 seconds in due to an eye poke, 10 of Rodriguez’s 11 UFC fights have seen the second round, with seven seeing round three, and six going the distance. While he does have three submission wins on his record, those all occurred in his first six pro fights before he joined the UFC. All 11 of his UFC fights (not counting the No Contest) have ended in either decisions (5-1) or KO/TKOs (4-1).
This will be the 7th five-round fight of Rodriguez’s UFC career, although one of those ended in a No Contest 15 seconds into the fight. He won a 2016 five-round split decision over Alex Caceres and then knocked out BJ Penn in the second round of a 2017 five-round match. His third UFC five-round fight ended in a last second KO win over The Korean Zombie in 2018, and then he had a five-round bout stopped 15 seconds in due to an eye poke and ruled a No Contest against Jeremy Stephens. His 5th round-fight fight was his decision loss to Holloway, leading up to his recent R1 TKO win over Ortega that ended in an anticlimactic shoulder freak injury. To sum all that up, Rodriguez is 4-1 plus a No Contest in five-round fights in his career. However, he’s one second and one judge’s score card away from being 1-3, as he was losing on the scorecards against The Korean Zombie before landing a last second KO and his only five-round decision win was split against Caceres.
Overall, Rodriguez is a black belt in Taekwondo and likes to throw a ton of kicks and spinning attacks. He’s also shown how creative and dangerous he can be with his elbows. While he’s landed nine takedowns in the UFC, eight of those came in his first five fights with the organization and he’s only landed one takedown in his last seven matches. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down 16 times on 43 opponent attempts (62.8% defense) in the UFC, including seven times on 14 attempts in his last three fights.
Josh Emmett
12th UFC Fight (9-2)Coming off a close/questionable five-round split-decision win over Calvin Kattar, Emmett is known for his power but has now won three straight close decisions, with the previous two coming against Dan Ige and Shane Burgos. The last time Emmett finished anybody was in 2019, when he knocked out Mirsad Bektic in the first round. Emmett is now 37 years old and suffered a bad knee injury against Burgos that took him a year and a half to recover from as he dealt with various complications following surgery.
In Emmett’s last fight, we saw a slow start with Kattar finishing round one ahead in significant strikes just 14-11 with Emmett failing to land the only takedown attempt in the round. Kattar’s respect for Emmett’s power was evident, as he looked to control the distance and snipe him from the outside opposed to hanging out in the pocket, however Emmett was still able to land a few good shots, which ended up being enough for all three judges to score the first round for him. Both guys did a better job of landing strikes in rounds two and three, but Emmett took a striking lead, despite wearing more of the damage. Kattar finished the fight strong as he took over in rounds four and five, severely outlanding Emmett in the championship rounds. The fight ended with Kattar ahead in significant strikes 130-107 and in total strikes 131-107, while Emmett failed to land any of his four takedown attempts and Kattar never attempted a takedown. All three judges agreed that Emmett won rounds one and three and that Kattar won round five. However, despite two of the three judges scoring round two for Kattar and a different two scoring round four for him, Emmett still finished ahead overall on two of the three judges’ scorecards and he went on to win a split decision. Had Chris Lee or Sal D’Amato given Kattar one more round, he would have won the fight, so it’s interesting to see that Chris Lee scored round four for Emmett, despite Kattar leading 41-21 in striking in the round. Regardless, it was largely a close fight, with neither guy really setting themself apart from the other.
Now 18-2 as a pro, Emmett has six wins by KO, two by submission, and 10 decision victories. He’s only been finished once in his career, which occurred in a 2018 R2 KO against Jeremy Stephens, who lost his next six fights following the finish. Emmett’s only other career loss was a 2017 split-decision in his third UFC fight. Both of Emmett’s submission wins occurred in the first round of fights earlier in his career (2013 & 2015), prior to joining the UFC. Four of his six knockouts also occurred in the first round, while the other two came in round three. Nine of his last 12 fights have made it to the third round and 7 of Emmett’s 11 UFC fights have gone the distance (6-1), while the other four ended in knockouts (3-1). Emmett turned pro in 2011 at 145 lb, but moved up to 155 lb in 2014 for his 5th pro fight. He stayed at 155 lb until 2017, when he dropped back down to 145 lb for his 4th UFC match. After starting his UFC career 2-1 in three decisions at 155 lb, he’s since gone 7-1 at 145 lb, with four of those fights ending in knockouts and four going the distance.
This will be the 5th five-round fight of Emmett’s career (3-1), and third in the UFC (1-1). In his two fights scheduled to go five rounds prior to joining the UFC, Emmett won a 2014 technical decision in a fight that was stopped 24 seconds into round five and then later landed a 2016 third round knockout. In his first UFC five rounder, Emmett got knocked out by Jeremy Stephens in the second round, for winning a split decision over Kattar in his last five-round fight.
Overall, Emmett is a powerful striker and also a former college wrestler. However, since dropping down to 145 lb, he’s only landed two takedowns on 10 attempts, with just one takedown landed in his last seven matches. He relies more on his nuclear right hand and is currently tied with Jeremy Stephens for the most total knockdowns landed in the Featherweight division at 11. That’s even more impressive when you consider that Emmett only has eight UFC Featherweight fights and Stephens had 18. And he’s second only to Conor McGregor in Featherweight knockdowns landed per 15 minutes at 1.65. After dropping back down to 145 lb in 2017, Emmett landed at least one knockdown in seven straight fights before failing to land a knockdown in his last match. Everyone should be aware that there have been rumors of Emmett having a hip injury, which murky the water here.
Fight Prediction:
Rodriguez will have a 5” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also seven years younger than the 37-year-old Emmett.
It seems sort of weird that the UFC decided to make this match for the interim Featherweight belt opposed to just top contender status, but it is what it is. We expect it to play out as a striking battle with the speed, length, and creative attacks of Rodriguez going up against the power of Emmett. Rodriguez will need to be careful not to absorb any clean haymakers from Emmett or else he could be in for a short night. It would be wise of him to utilize his noticeable 5” height advantage and stay at kicking range, but he’ll also need to set up his attacks well or we could see Emmett lunge in to counter. Both fighters are capable of knocking out the other, but the oddsmakers are expecting this to go the distance more often than not. However, we saw the line move suddenly in Rodriguez’s favor during the middle of the week and the fight doesn’t go the distance line also came down some amid rumors of a potential Emmett hip injury. While we originally thought there was some betting value on Emmett’s side of things, that leaves us wanting to stay away from this fight or side with Rodriguez. While Emmett unquestionably has the power to knock Rodriguez out, tread lightly here with all of the uncertainty.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at +140.
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DFS Implications:
Rodriguez relies on striking volume and finishes to score well, and he’s only completed one takedown in his last seven fights. He landed a career best 159 significant strikes in a 2021 five-round decision loss to Max Holloway, and still scored 81 DraftKings points even in a loss. While he scored 100 DraftKings points in a last second 5th round knockout against The Korean Zombie in a 2018 victory, Rodriguez wouldn’t have scored well in a decision had he not connected on that last second elbow. Ignoring the fact that he was losing on the scorecards, he would have scored just 80 DraftKings points and 91 points on FanDuel if he won a decision instead of landing a knockout. Rodriguez also scored just 85 DraftKings points in a five-round split-decision win over Alex Caceres back in 2016. So overall, Rodriguez has shown roughly an 80-85 point DraftKings floor in five-round decisions. However, he has three KO/TKO wins in five-round UFC fights that were good for 104, 100, and 103 DraftKings points. At his reasonable price tag, he doesn’t have to put up a slate-breaking score to end up in tournament winning lineups, but there are also lots of ways he gets left out if this ends up being a lower volume fight. We don’t expect to see as much striking volume in this matchup as we did in his fight against Holloway, leaving Rodriguez more reliant on handing Emmett just the second early loss of his career. The odds imply Rodriguez has a 60% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Emmett is coming off a somewhat controversial five-round split decision win over Calvin Kattar, where he scored just 73 DraftKings points. That’s the first time Emmet has been past the third round in the UFC, as his only other UFC fight scheduled to go five rounds ended in a R2 KO loss to Jeremy Stephens in 2018. Overall, Emmett has been a boom or bust fantasy contributor, with DraftKings scores of 104 or more in five of his UFC fights and 73 or fewer in his other six. His scoring success has not been entirely limited to landing finishes, as he’s topped 109 DK points in three of his five three-round decision wins. He’s also shown a shaky floor at times even when he does land a knockout, as he scored just 64 points in a third round KO in his second most recent finish. Since moving down to 145 lb in 2017, he’s only landed two takedowns on 10 attempts, so it’s hard to count on him adding anything in terms of grappling. However, he’s already tied for the most knockdowns landed in Featherweight history at 11, and he’s landed as many as four in a single fight. He landed at least one knockdown in each of his first seven Featherweight fights, before failing to land one most recently against Kattar, who’s never been knocked down in his career. Although for what it’s worth, Yair Rodriguez has also never been knocked down in 12 UFC appearances. With so much of Emmett’s scoring equity tied to landing knockdowns, knockouts, or rare takedowns, he has a wide range of potential outcomes and showed in his last fight that it’s tougher for him to get there on striking alone, even when he has five rounds to work with. His cheap price tag makes it easier for him to crack winning lineups, but if we see a similar performance to his last one, it will still be tougher for him to be useful. We saw the line move precipitously in Rodriguez’s favor in the middle of the week with rumors of a potential Emmett hip injury, so keep that in mind here. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Islam Makhachev
14th UFC Fight (12-1)Making his first title defense after winning the Lightweight belt against Charles Oliveira, Makhachev has won 11 straight fights and has finished his last five opponents. His last three wins have all come in the first two rounds, while five of his last six finishes have been by submission. The one exception was when he finished Bobby Green with ground and pound opposed to looking for a choke. Prior to the win over Green, Makhachev submitted Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises, and Drew Dober, after winning a pair of three-round decisions over fellow high-level grapplers Davi Ramos and Arman Tsarukyan.
In his last fight, Makhachev showed improved striking as he landed some good early shots on Oliveira. That resulted in Oliveira pulling guard 30 seconds into the first round and trying to work off his back where he’s so dangerous. Makhachev did a good job of staying safe on the mat against the most dangerous guard player in the world, while landing ground and pound. Makhachev showed throughout the fight that he wasn’t scared to go to the ground with Oliveira, as Makhachev landed two of his three takedown attempts in the fight, while Oliveira failed on his only attempt. After closing out the first round in top position on the mat, Makhachev defended an early takedown attempt from Oliveira in round two to keep the fight standing and then wore on him against the fence. After the two fighters returned to space, Makhachev dropped Oliveira with a combination of punches and then immediately looked for an arm triangle on the mat, which Oliveira immediately tapped to as soon as Makhachev hopped over to the side. The fight ended with Makhachev ahead 30-19 in significant strikes, 72-25 in total strikes, 2-0 in takedowns, 1-0 in knockdowns, and 5:05-0:42 in control time.
Now 23-1 as a pro, Makhachev has four wins by KO/TKO, 11 by submission, and eight decisions. All four of his career KO/TKO wins occurred in the first round, although two of those were in his first three pro fights back in 2011 and 11 of his last 13 finishes have come by submission. Five of his submission wins came in round one, three ended in round two, two more occurred in round three, and one ended in round four. The only loss of his career occurred in a 2015 R1 TKO in his second UFC fight.
This will be the fourth five-round fight of Makhachev’s career. The first ended in a 2021 fourth round submission win over BJJ black belt Thiago Moises. Makhachev was in no rush to finish the fight, and only attempted one takedown in the first two rounds, which he landed late in round one. Makhachev’s next five-round fight finished in a R1 TKO win over late replacement Bobby Green, leading up to his recent second round submission win over Oliveira. So only once in his career has Makhachev been to a fourth round and he’s never seen round five.
Overall, Makhachev is an elite grappler and Combat Sambo world champion who holds the all-time UFC record for the fewest significant strikes absorbed at 0.95 per minute. In his 13 UFC fights, Makhachev has impressively landed 27 of his 41 takedown attempts (65.9% accuracy). The only three fights he failed to land a takedown in were his 2015 R1 KO loss, his 2018 R1 KO win, and his three-round decision win over world champion grappler Davi Ramos, where basically nothing happened for 15 minutes and Makhachev failed to land his only takedown attempt. Makhachev’s 88% career takedown defense is also exceptional as he’s only been taken down twice in his career—once by Thiago Moises and another time by Arman Tsarukyan. While Makhachev is used to having Khabib in his corner, that will not be the case in this fight as Khabib has stepped away from coaching to spend more time with his family.
Alexander Volkanovski
13th UFC Fight (12-0)Riding in on a ridiculous 22 fight winning streak, Volkanovski will be attempting to capture a second belt as he moves up a weight class to compete at 155 lb for the first time since his 2016 UFC debut. He’s coming off his third decision victory over Max Holloway, which is the fifth time Volkanovski has gone to the judges in his last six fights, despite his last five matches all being five-round title fights. Prior to his most recent win over Holloway, Volkanovski looked unstoppable in a fourth round TKO win over The Korean Zombie, which is Volkanovski’s only finish since he knocked out Chad Mendes all the way back in 2018. The only recent time Volkanovski has faced any real adversity was when Brian Ortega nearly submitted him in 2021. However, Volkanovski was able to escape tight guillotine and triangle chokes and then absolutely mauled Ortega for the remainder of the fight, although was narrowly unable to find a finish.
In his last fight, we saw Volkanovski patiently dismantle Holloway for five straight rounds. He progressively ramped up his activity throughout the fight with round by round significant strike totals of 28, 37, 40, 44, and 50. Volkanovski outlanded Holloway in all five rounds and just seemed to be operating at a different level than Holloway, who’s normally on the other end of that narrative when he’s fighting anyone but Volkanovski. Holloway got cut badly above his eye in the second round, but was able to battle through it. While Volkanovski made Holloway think about defending takedowns at times, Volkanovski didn’t actually finish with any official attempts, while Holloway failed to land any of his three attempts. Volkanovski finished ahead 199-127 in significant strikes and 204-161 in total strikes.
Now 25-1 as a pro, Volkanovski has 12 wins by KO, three by submission, and 10 decision victories. His only career loss came in a 2013 R3 TKO in his fourth pro fight, which took place up at 170 lb before Volkanovski first dropped down to 155 lb in 2014, and then eventually down to 145 lb. All 12 of his UFC fights have made it to the second round, with nine seeing the third round, and his last five all making it to the championship rounds. Eight of his 12 UFC wins have gone the distance, including four five-round decisions in his last five fights. He also has four TKO wins inside the Octagon, with the first three of those ending in round two and the other coming in round four.
This will be Volkanovski’s 6th straight title fight, with four of those ending in decisions and the other a fourth round TKO win. He also had six fights scheduled to go five rounds prior to joining the UFC, but he finished all six of those opponents early. So overall, he’s 11-0 in five-round fights in his career and 5-0 in the UFC.
Overall, Volkanovski has looked absolutely unstoppable lately. He’s very well-rounded as he’s a BJJ black belt and started training in Greco-Roman Wrestling as a kid before switching to rugby for a while before fully committing to MMA. He’s only been taken down 8 times on 30 attempts in his 12 UFC fights (73.3% defense) and he’s a tough guy to control on the mat. No opponent has ever controlled him for more than 99 seconds in a fight, which came in his debut. Since then, no one has accrued more than 59 seconds of control time against him in his last 11 fights, and he’s been controlled for a total of just 250 seconds (2.01% of the time) in those 11 matches. However, his defensive grappling has never faced a test like it will in this next match. Volkanovski will get to fight in front of his home Australian crowd here.
Fight Prediction:
Makhachev will have a 4” height advantage, but Volkanovski will have a 1” reach advantage. Makhachev is three years younger than the 34-year-old Volkanovski.
This will be complete madness if Volkanovski moves up a weight class and defeats Makhachev in front of Volkanovski’s home crowd, but it will require one of the most complete performances we’ve ever seen. While Volkanovski is an exceptionally well-rounded fighter, he’s not known for his one-punch knockout power and tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on. All 12 of his UFC fights have seen the second round, with five of his last six going the distance. His one finish over that stretch came in a standing TKO stoppage in the fourth round against The Korean Zombie from an accumulation of damage. Now Volkanovski will be fighting up a weight class and going against arguably the best wrestler in the UFC, who has absorbed the lowest average of significant strikes per minute in UFC history. That’s a tough recipe for Volkanovski to win via an accumulation of damage. While it remains to be seen how Volkanovski will look carrying the additional 10 lb, that does add some uncertainty to his side of things and the last time Volkanovski competed at 155 lb was in his 2016 UFC debut, which he won by second round TKO via ground and pound. It’s also worth pointing out that Makhachev has never been past the fourth round, while Volkanovski is a cardio machine, so there’s always a slight chance that Makhachev slows down late and Volkanovski can capitalize.
Volkanovski will either need to knock Makhachev out or keep this fight standing for longer than it spends on the mat to try and outland his way to a decision win. Working in his favor, he has a low center of gravity, a solid 73% takedown defense, and is great at getting back up when he does get taken down, as he has only been controlled for 2% of his total UFC fight time. However, he’s also never faced an opponent like Makhachev, and we’re fascinated to see how Volkanovski’s defensive wrestling holds up. Our expectation is that the size difference will prove to be too much for Volkanovski to overcome and Makhachev will find success controlling him on the mat, with the most likely outcome being a Makhachev submission win. However, Volkanovski showed insane heart/skill/toughness escaping the submission attempts of Brian Ortega, and we wouldn’t be that surprised if Makhachev was unable to submit him and this ultimately ended in a decision. We would still give the advantage to Makhachev to get his hand raised by the judges in that scenario, but the fact that it’s taking place in Australia does give you reason for pause there, as we could see the judges favor Volkanovski in close rounds. Our official pick is Makhachev wins by submission, but it’s far from a comfortable prediction.
Our favorite bet here is “Makhachev SUB” at +155.
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DFS Implications:
Makhachev has averaged 102 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC wins with nine scores of 100 or more. The only times he’s failed to reach the century mark were in three-round decisions (75, 73, and 89), which were respectively on pace to score 104, 102, and 127 points over the course of five rounds. He’s shown the ability to score well even with finishes in the middle rounds and his wrestling-heavy style is perfectly suited for the DraftKings scoring system, where he’s a better play compared to on FanDuel. While Volkanovski has a solid 73% takedown defense and does a good job of quickly returning to his feet when he does get taken down, that also presents the possibility for Makhachev to chain takedowns together and land them in bunches. As the second most expensive fighter on the slate, it is still possible that Makhachev finds a finish but gets priced out of winning tournament lineups. However, he has the best scoring floor/ceiling combination of any fighter on the card and should be a focal point in your lineups, especially on DraftKings. The odds imply he has a 75% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Volkanovski has been so dominant at Featherweight that he had to move up to Lightweight for a fight just to find some legitimate competition. He’s averaged 111 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC wins, and that number has risen to 116 points in his five recent title fights, and 128 points in his last three wins. However, we can’t get too hung up on his past scoring, as now he’ll be squaring off against the best wrestler in the UFC, who also currently holds the all time UFC record for fewest average number of significant strikes absorbed at 0.95 per minute. That will make it much tougher for Volkanovski to put up another big volume-driven score. He’s also only landed one finish since 2018, which was a fourth round TKO mercy stoppage, so it’s rare to see Volkanovski knock anyone out. With all that said, as the second cheapest fighter on the card, Volkanovski can still serve as a value play even with a lower scoring win, or perhaps even in a higher scoring loss if we see another card where only 1-2 underdogs even win. Just keep in mind, his cheap price tag and past scoring success will drive up his ownership, despite this being the toughest matchup of his career. The odds imply Volkanovski has a 25% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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