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Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Shara Magomedov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut with an undefeated record, Magomedov is 10 months removed from an eight second first round knockout win. That win came just eight days after he won a decision in the only time he’s ever made it to the judges. While his first eight pro fights all ended in the first two rounds, two of his last three fights made it to the third round. After fighting three times in 2021 and four in 2022, his upcoming UFC debut will be his first fight in 2023.
Now 11-0 as a pro, Magomedov has 10 wins by KO/TKO and one decision victory. Seven of his knockouts ended in round one, two occurred in round two, and one ended in round three. He has a kickboxing win over Blood Diamond back in 2019, but hasn’t faced the highest level of competition in his MMA career.
Overall, Magomedov is a one-eyed, one-dimensional striker who relies mostly on his kicks. While he’s from Dagestan, he hasn’t shown much of anything in the way of wrestling, and prefers to keep fights standing. He started out training boxing as a child and went on to become a Master of Sports in Thai Boxing and kickboxing, as well as an International Master of Sports in Burmese boxing. He’s got kind of a hybrid karate style, where he’s very light on his feet and throws snappy kicks while doing a good job of controlling the distance and staying at kicking range. Despite his kick-heavy approach, he puts up big striking totals as he pushes a solid pace and is constantly forcing the action. He’s got good power, but we need to see how effective his finishing abilities can be at the UFC level before we’re fully sold on him, and despite all of his finishes, his style seems more conducive to winning decisions.
Bruno Silva
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Coming off a first round submission loss to Brendan Allen, Silva has lost three of his last four fights. He and Allen traded strikes on the feet, before Allen dropped him late in the round and then worked his way to a rear-naked choke finish. Two months prior to that, Silva knocked out Brad Tavares in the first round, which is Silva’s only win since 2021. Leading up to that win, Silva got submitted in the third round by Gerald Meerschaert, and even before getting finished, Silva looked terrible in that fight. He somehow got outlanded by Meerschaert 46-29 in significant strikes, before getting dropped in the third round just before the submission. That came just after Silva suffered his first UFC loss in a decision against Alex Pereira. That snapped a streak of seven straight knockout wins for Silva, with the last three of those coming in the UFC. Silva had originally been scheduled to make his debut against Deron Winn all the way back in June 2019, but failed a drug test and was suspended for two years after testing positive for steroids.
Now 23-9 as a pro, Silva has 20 wins by KO/TKO and three decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted seven times, has one decision loss, and one by DQ. Silva has gone 18-4 in his last 22 fights dating back to 2012. Just three of those 22 fights went the distance, while 16 ended in knockout wins, including 13 in the first round.
Overall, Silva is a one-dimensional power puncher who struggles on the mat, despite allegedly being a BJJ black belt. In his seven UFC fights, he’s been taken down by his opponents on 8 of their 30 attempts (73.3% defense), while he’s landed 2 of his own 11 attempts (18.2% accuracy). Both of those takedowns he landed came against Alex Pereira, while seven of the takedowns he conceded were against Andrew Sanchez. Since losing a decision to Pereira, Silva has been knocked down twice in his last three fights, with both of those knockdowns coming against grapplers. So either Pereira left him with a compromised chin or Silva just forgets about his striking defense when he’s facing grapplers and is more worried about defending takedowns.
Fight Prediction:
Magomedov will have a 2” height advantage, but Silva will have a 1” reach advantage. Magomedov is five years younger than the 34-year-old Silva.
This sets up as a pure striking battle, but Silva relies more on his hands, while Magomedov mostly throws kicks. The larger Octagon favors Magomedov, who will want to control the range and stay out of punching range. While Silva has never been knocked out, we have seen him hurt and knocked down at multiple points in recent fights. Historically, the only way to finish him has been to submit him, and Magomedov has never submitted anybody or shown any desire/ability to grapple. On the other side of things, Magomedov hasn’t truly been tested by any high-level opponents to this point in his career, but at least appears durable. So despite all of the knockout wins between these two, there’s a good chance it runs long and we actually like it to go the distance. Magomedov likes to stay on the outside and wear down his opponents with kicks, but if Silva never fully wears down, the clock will be what eventually wears out and Magomedov will likely outpoint his way to victory. So even though each of these two are powerful enough to knock out the other, give us Magomedov by decision in this one.
Our favorite bet here is “Sharabutdin Magomedov DEC” at +350.
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DFS Implications:
Magomedov is a one-dimensional striker who relies mostly on his kicks. He has good speed and power, but is also blind in one of his eyes, which adds a unique variable to the mix. He lands a good amount of striking volume, but since he adds nothing in terms of grappling, he’s reliant on landing knockouts to score well. Silva has never been knocked out in his career, but has been hurt/dropped at multiple points in his recent fights. That gives some reason for optimism that Magomedov is able to hand Silva his first KO loss, but don’t be shocked if this ends up going the distance. Based on his style of fighting, Magomedov is a slightly better play on FanDuel than DraftKings, but will need a finish to be useful on either site. The odds imply Magomedov has a 70% chance to win, a 52% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.
Silva has been a R1 KO or bust option so far in the UFC. All four of his UFC wins ended in knockouts, with three of those ending in the first round. He averaged 107 points in those three first round finishes, but only scored 79 points in his one other win, which ended in the third round. He adds almost nothing when it comes to grappling and has never landed more than 70 significant strikes in a UFC fight. He also only scored 42 points in a decision loss in his lone trip to the judges, and even if that decision had gone his way, he still wouldn’t have scored well. Now he’s facing an undefeated opponent who likes to throw kicks from the outside, which will make it tougher for Silva to close the distance and land strikes. While he doesn’t need to put up a huge score to be useful at his cheap price tag, he still needs to land a knockout, and this looks like a tougher matchup to achieve that. The odds imply Silva has a 30% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Viktoriia Dudakova
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a quick R1 TKO via freak arm injury in her recent UFC debut, Dudakova has still done nothing to prove her worth and it’s hard to take away anything from her last fight. She quickly looked for a takedown and Istela Nunes snapped her arm as she fell to the mat. Eleven months prior to that, Dudakova won a wrestling-heavy decision on DWCS, after finishing her first five pro opponents. She wasn’t especially impressive in her DWCS fight, but was able to land four takedowns with over 10 minutes of control time. It looked like she hurt her knee late in the second round of the fight as she took a really bad step, but afterwards she claimed that she came into the fight with that injury. Regardless of when the injury happened, she had ACL surgery a couple of weeks after the fight, which resulted in the long layoff leading up to her debut.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Dudakova has two first round TKO wins, four submissions, and one decision victory. Three of her four submission wins occurred in the later rounds. Keep in mind, she had been facing really suspect competition before going on DWCS so all of her finishes should be taken with a grain of salt.
Overall, Dudakova is a one-dimensional 24-year-old Russian grappler, who’s always looking to take opponents down and control them. She’s still very green in MMA after turning pro just three years ago, and we’ve often seen her get reversed looking for takedowns, where she’s the one who ends up on her back. Dudakova’s background is actually in swimming opposed to martial arts, before she decided to take her career in a different direction. Between her DWCS fight and her recent UFC debut, she landed 5 of her 9 takedown attempts (55.6% accuracy), while she got taken down on the only attempt from her opponents. We’re not really sold on Dudakova and she’s yet to impress us yet, but in fairness to her, she’s still just 24 years old and should be improving all the time.
UPDATE: Dudakova missed weight by 0.6 lb!
Jinh Yu Frey
8th UFC Fight (2-5)Likely fighting for her job here, Frey is just 2-5 in the UFC and has lost three straight fights. However, she easily could have won the last two decisions she went to, but neither of them went her way. In between those close losses to Elise Reed and Vanessa Demopoulos, she got knocked out in just 47 seconds by Polyana Viana. That’s the only one of Frey’s last six fights that ended early, after she got submitted in the third round of her 2020 short notice UFC debut. Frey’s only two UFC wins came against a one-dimensional striker in Gloria de Paula, where Frey was able to win the fight with her wrestling, and a one-dimensional grappler in Ashley Yoder, where Frey was able to keep the fight standing and win a striking battle.
Now 11-9 as a pro, Frey has one win by R1 KO (2013), two submissions, and eight decision victories. She’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has five decision defeats. Her last eight wins all went the distance and all three of her early wins occurred in the first round of her first four pro fights. After fighting her entire pre-UFC career at 105 lb, Frey was forced to move up to 115 lb when she joined the UFC in June 2020, so it makes sense that she required an adjustment period as she grew into the new weight class.
Overall, Frey is a decently well rounded decision grinder, who has shown some improvements since joining the UFC, but is now getting up there in age at 38 years old. While she’s not any sort of finishing threat, she has decent boxing and a really solid 89.2% takedown defense, as she’s only been taken down three times on 28 opponent attempts. Prior to facing Reed in her last match, Frey had faced three straight grapplers, and they combined to land just one of their 15 attempts in those matches. On the other side of things, Frey has landed 6 of her own takedowns on 16 attempts (37.5% accuracy), but is generally only looking to take down strikers. She has a masters degree and tends to fight smart, attacking her opponents’ weaknesses and avoiding their strengths. That was evident when she came in with a grappling heavy game plan against one-dimensional strikers like Gloria de Paula and Elise Reed, and a pure striking game plan against one-dimensional grappler Ashley Yoder. She’ll face a one-dimensional grappler here, so look for Frey to try and keep the fight standing and outland her way to a decision win on the feet.
Fight Prediction:
Dudakova will have a 2” height and reach advantage, while being 14 years younger than the 38-year-old Frey.
There’s no uncertainty here with what each fight will be looking to do. Dudakova is a one-dimensional wrestler who will be looking to take Frey down and control her, while looking for a submission if one presents itself. And on the other side of things, Frey will be looking to keep the fight standing to outland her way to a decision win. Whoever can dictate where the fight takes place will win. Frey’s 89% takedown defense is encouraging for her chances, but the judges absolutely hate her and never steer close decisions her way. She also has basically no finishing ability, so is entirely reliant on having those close decisions go her way. That makes it hard to confidently pick her to win, but we’re doing it anyway as we don’t believe that Dudakova is really prepared to compete at the UFC level. Frey by decision is the pick, but we’re fully prepared to see her get robbed in a close decision once again.
Our favorite bet here is “Dudakova/Frey FGTD” at -150.
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DFS Implications:
Dudakova’s recent UFC debut ended in a freak injury that lucked her into the Quick Win Bonus, where she scored 121 DraftKings points. That meaningless result told us nothing and we’re still waiting to see if she’s a fraud. With that said, her wrestling-heavy approach to fighting will generally score better on DraftKings than FanDuel. While six of her seven pro wins ended early, all of those finishes came against low-level opponents and she’s yet to show she can find finishes against UFC level-talent. While Dudakova has the ability to land takedowns and rack up control time, she looks like a real liability on the feet. And working against her, Frey has a really solid 89% takedown defense. That makes it hard to trust Dudakova here and even if she’s able to find some grappling success, she’s less likely to completely dominate the fight on the ground for 15 minutes, which is what she would need to do to return value in a decision at her high price tag. So she likely needs a finish to be useful on either site. And with that in mind, Frey has only been submitted once in her career, which was in the third round of her short notice UFC debut. The one appealing thing about Dudakova is her low ownership, which makes her a little more interesting in tournaments. The odds imply Dudakova has a 79% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Frey has given us no indication she can score well in DFS, with DraftKings totals of just 65 and 72 in her two decision wins and just 36, 29, and 23 in her three decision losses. She hasn’t finished anybody since 2014 in her fourth pro fight and is now 38 years old and coming off three straight losses. We expect her to spend most of this fight defending takedowns, and there’s also the potential for her to get controlled for periods of time. So it’s really hard to see her putting up the striking volume she would need to score well in a decision. The one way she could score decently would be if she’s able to reverse Dudakova on the mat and rack up ground and pound and control time, but Frey showed in her last loss that ground and pound isn’t really her thing, even when she has top position on the mat. So even at her cheap price tag, she likely either needs a complete hail mary finish or a decision win and almost all of the other underdogs on the slate to fail. The odds imply Frey has a 21% chance to win, a 6% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Nathaniel Wood
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Wood is coming off a close decision win over Andre Fili in an action packed fight, where both guys dropped the other and nearly forced a stoppage. That was the fifth straight decision that Wood has fought to (4-1), with his one loss over that stretch coming in a close/questionable decision loss to Casey Kenney in a 2020 140 lb Catchweight match. Wood then struggled with fight cancellations over the next couple of years, before moving up to 145 lb in 2022, where he’s since gone 3-0. Prior to that, he had spent his entire career at 135 lb. He landed late round submission wins in his first three UFC fights, before getting knocked out in the third round of a 2020 match against John Dodson. All nine of Wood’s UFC fights have seen the second round, with seven making it to round three, and five going the distance.
Now 19-5 as a pro, Wood has eight wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and six decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice more, and has one decision loss. However, he only has one early loss since 2016. While only seven of his 24 pro fights have made it to the judges, he hasn’t finished anybody since 2019.
Overall, Wood is a well-rounded fighter and a solid striker who lands a ton of striking volume, averaging 6.24 SSL/min and 4.35 SSA/min. He does a good job of attacking his opponents’ legs, landing 36 leg strikes against Andre Fili, 22 against Jourdain, 31 against Rosa, 57 against Kenney, and 58 against John Castaneda in his last five fights. We’ve yet to see him knock anyone out at the UFC level, and now that he’s moved up a weight class it may be even tougher for him, but he did land three straight late-round submission wins in his first three UFC fights. He does a good job of mixing in takedowns, and in his nine UFC fights, he’s landed 13 takedowns on 24 attempts (54.2% accuracy), with at least one takedown landed in eight of his last nine fights. On the other side of things, his opponents have gotten him down on just 6 of their 25 attempts (76% defense).
Muhammad Naimov
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Naimov is fresh off a massive upset win in his short notice UFC debut up a weight class against Jamie Mullarkey, who was easily winning the fight until he decided to charge forward with his chin up and his hands down midway through the second round. He was made to pay for that mistake as Naimov dropped him with a right hand and then put him away with ground and pound. In the eight minute fight, Naimov got taken down three times, controlled for two and a half minutes, and was outlanded 39-28 in significant strikes. Naimov originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2020, but lost a decision against a terrible Collin Anglin, who has since gone 0-4 with three of those losses coming early. Following that loss, Naimov lost a five-round decision with Titan FC, before landing a first round submission against an opponent who came in with a losing record (5-6-1), also with Titan FC. Naimov then joined the ultra prestigious Tuff-N-Uff organization, where he won a split decision before notching a 34 second R1 KO that started with a head kick and finished with ground and pound.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Naimov has five wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision wins. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses going the distance. However, take his record with a grain of salt as he hasn’t much in the way of legitimate competition and has even looked bad against lower level opponents. Outside of taking his recent UFC debut at 155 lb, Naimov’s entire career has been spent at 145 lb.
Overall, Naimov is a low-level striker with a Taekwondo background. He hasn’t shown much of a ground game and he’s struggled with being taken down. Between his DWCS match and his recent UFC debut, Naimov failed to land any of his five takedown attempts, while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 12 attempts (50% defense). While Naimov was able to land a huge upset in his recent debut, it’s important to keep in mind that he was losing that fight and he was simply able to capitalize on a massive mistake from Mullarkey. One punch does not change a fighter’s identity and Naimov is still a bad fighter with a lot of holes in his game. In addition to his lack of ground game, he’s sloppy and undisciplined, and landed multiple fouls in his DWCS match. He also gassed out late in that fight. The UFC isn’t doing Naimov any favors, as they give him an even tougher matchup than his last one here.
Fight Prediction:
Naimov will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
This will be a major step down in competition for Wood and he should be able to do whatever he wants in this fight. He has the ability to dominate Naimov both on the feet or the mat, and will have a good shot at locking up a submission if/when he decides to take the fight to the ground. Naimov has really skinny legs and Wood is constantly landing leg strikes, so look for him to really compromise Naimov’s base. That will leave Naimov in real trouble, since he doesn't have a grappling game to turn to. While Wood has fought to five straight decisions, all of those were against really durable opponents who are hard to put away. And while Naimov has never been finished himself, he’s only faced one decent opponent in his career. This looks like the perfect opportunity for Wood to land his first finish since 2019 and the only question is whether he locks up a submission or knocks Naimov out. Wood’s last three finishes all ended in late round submissions, but his four before that all ended in knockouts in the first two rounds, with the last three of those ending in round one. A submission does appear a little more likely, but both methods are in play. Either way, we like Wood to get him out of there early and forced to choose, we’ll say he locks up another late-round submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Wood ITD” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Wood has averaged 96 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins. His first three wins with the organization all ended in late round submissions, where he averaged 104 points, while his last four all went the distance, with him averaging 91 points. While he was able to score 108 points in one of those decisions, that required a career best five takedowns, which came against the terrible defensive wrestling of Charles Jourdain. Wood had previously never landed more than two takedowns in a UFC fight and he only scored 87, 77, and 90 DraftKings points in his other three decision wins. He also lost a close, high-volume decision to Casey Kenney in 2020, but still only would have scored 85 points had that gone his way. So he appears reliant on either landing a finish or finding a lot of grappling success to return value here at his expensive price tag. Both of those options are squarely in play, as Wood gets a step down in competition against a low-level one-dimensional striker. Naimov got taken down three times in eight minutes in his last fight and also got taken down four times on DWCS. And while Naimov has never been finished, he’s been fighting a low-level of competition throughout his career, so we’re not getting too hung up on that. Wood is priced just above Chimaev on DraftKings and he looks like a great tournament pivot at significantly lower ownership and in a much more favorable spot to succeed. The odds imply Wood has a 74% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Naimov landed a flukey knockout in his recent short notice UFC debut, which allowed him to score 92 DraftKings points in a fight he was losing badly. Hopefully some of the field chases that result, but we’re putting no stock in that outcome. Mullarkey looked like he was trying to get knocked out in that fight ending sequence, as he came charging in head first with his hands low, while also apeparing to slip on his entry, leaving him off balance. Naimov did what anyone should in that position, but he still looked bad in the fight. He’s also struggled immensely with being taken down and has shown questionable cardio in the past. He’s facing a really tough opponent here and will require another miracle knockout to pull off the upset. The odds imply Naimov has a 26% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Anshul Jubli
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Jubli won the Road to UFC tournament with a second round ground and pound TKO over a much smaller one-dimensional striker in Jeka Saragih. Jubli got his lead leg chewed up early on, but was able to take Saragih down twice and eventually finish him on the mat. Prior to that, he won a split decision in the semifinals of the tournament, after his first opponent in the tournament dropped out due to a botched weight cut and Jubli was given a bye in the first round. Prior to the tournament, Jubli won his first five pro fights after turning pro in 2019. All of those fights took place in the United Arab Emirates with the Matrix Fight Night promotion, and Jubli is very accustomed to fighting in Dubai.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Jubli has two TKO wins, one submission, and four decision victories. His first two finishes ended in the first round, while the most recent was stopped in round two. Keep in mind, Jubli hasn’t faced the toughest competition, so it remains to be seen how he’ll stack up once he starts fighting legitimate opponents.
Overall, Jubli trains in his home country of India and coming into his recent UFC debut he talked about how there is very limited training in India when it comes to Muay Thai, kickboxing, and jiu-jitsu. He said they really only have coaches for wrestling and boxing there, so he’s still working on rounding out his skillset. While he relied on his boxing to win his second most recent fight, he’s generally looking to take opponents downs, with at least one takedown landed in three of his last four fights. He talked about how he fought his second most recent fight with a broken toe and a knee injury that prevented him from doing any grappling training for the months leading up to the match, so that may help to explain why he was looking to keep that one standing. Jubli prides himself on being a fast learner, so considering he only turned pro four years ago, he should constantly be improving. At 6’0” tall, he’s got good size at 155 lb, although doesn’t have a very long reach, at just 69”.
Mike Breeden
4th UFC Fight (0-3)Continuing to struggle immensely in the UFC, Breeden has lost all three of his fights with the organization and got knocked out in 85 seconds or less in two of those defeats. His one fight to last longer than that was a decision defeat to Natan Levy, who took Breeden down nine times. However, Breeden finished the fight really strong, outlanding Levy 62-46 in significant strikes in the third round, at least showing off his heart and toughness. Then just two months ago, Breeden got knocked out in 85 seconds by Terrance McKinney, who stepped in on short notice. Breeden also got knocked out in his 2021 UFC debut by Alexander Hernandez, who only took 80 seconds to close the show. Breeden originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in August 2020, but lost a hardfought decision and was forced to return to the regional scene. He bounced back with a second round TKO win followed by a decision victory over two low-level opponents, before getting the call up to the big show.
Now 10-6 as a pro, Breeden has eight wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. Five of his knockouts came in the first round, one ended in round two, and two occurred in round three. He’s also been knocked out in the first round three times himself, while his other three losses all went the distance. Breeden fought at 170 lb for a four fight stretch in 2018-2019, but the rest of his career has been down at 155 lb aside from a couple of 158-160 lb Catchweight matches.
Overall, Breeden is a heavy handed boxer, but he stands a little flatfooted at times and got his legs absolutely destroyed on DWCS. He did show off his toughness as he gutted through till the end, continuing to hunt for a knockout despite the fact that he could barely stand. While he claims to be a BJJ brown belt and will occasionally mix in takedown attempts, he’s primarily a striker. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 3 of his 9 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 29 attempts (62.1% defense). He tends to give up his back more than he should during grappling exchanges, and it’s surprising he’s never been submitted. Breeden had been training out of Glory MMA & Fitness with James Krause, but after that got shut down he moved up the road to Trey Ogden’s gym, Marathon MMA. After losing his first three UFC fights, you have to assume he’s fighting for his job here. Breeden missed weight by 2.5 lb for his UFC debut, so he’ll be a guy to monitor on the scale.
UPDATE: Breeden missed weight by 3.5 lb!
Fight Prediction:
Jubli will have a 2” height advantage, but Breeden wil have a 1” reach advantage. Jubli is six years younger than the 34-year-old Breeden.
Breeden has primarily served as a walking heavy bag so far in the UFC, as he’s absorbed a ton of damage. He’s a one-dimensional boxer who relies on knocking opponents out, but has yet to finish anybody at the UFC level. His only early win in the last four years was on the Missouri regional scene in 2020 against a terrible opponent, right after Breeden lost on DWCS. He’s looked extremely hittable on the feet, gets his legs chewed up easily, and was taken down multiple times both on DWCS and in his one UFC fight to last longer than 90 seconds. It seems like the UFC is simply using Breeden to build other guys up, which is why they’re feeding him to Jubli here, as they try to build up Indian MMA and their Road to UFC winner. For some reason Breeden has been taking a lot of betting action this week, but that’s got to be people just looking to blindly fade Jubli. Breeden has done nothing to show he belongs in the UFC and we believe this will be his final fight with the organization. The only question is whether or not Jubli can finish him, and we like his chances of ending this in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Anshul Jubli ITD” at +120.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Jubli is still very green, with just seven pro fights to his name, but showed clear upside in his recent second round ground and pound TKO win in his UFC debut, which was good for 115 DraftKings points. While that came in a favorable matchup for him to dominate on the ground against a smaller, one-dimensional striker, Jubli gets another favorable matchup here against a struggling opponent. Not only has Breeden been knocked out in under 90 seconds in two of his three UFC fights, he got taken down nine times in his other loss and has shown multiple ways for opponents to put massive scores against him. Jubli looks vulnerable to having his legs kicked, but Breeden has been nothing more than a one-dimensional boxer and doesn’t appear especially equipped to capitalize on that. We’ll definitely be looking to fade Jubli in the future, but this isn’t the spot. Both a finish or a dominant ground performance are in play for Jubli in this fight, and after the line moved sharply in Breeden’s favor, Jubli will go largely overlooked at his high price tag. That makes him an amazing tournament pivot off of the higher owned expensive fighters. The odds imply Jubli has a 70% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Breeden has lost all three of his UFC fights and his DWCS match, yet betters are infatuated with him. He also missed weight by 3.5 lb, his second weight miss in the UFC. Breeden is a one-dimensional boxer, who will occasionally mix in takedown attempts and claims to be a BJJ brown belt, but hasn’t impressed us with his grappling. He relies on landing knockouts to win fights, and has yet to show any sort of finishing ability at the UFC level. Since Glory MMA shut down, Breeden has been training at Marathon MMA with Trey Ogden, and has limited UFC-level training partners, with Miles Johns being one of the few. Breeden will need to land a knockout here to score well, which makes determining your exposure pretty straightforward. The odds imply Breeden has a 30% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Sedriques Dumas
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off his first UFC victory, Dumas won a decision over a dejected Cody Brundage, who stepped in on short notice and had one of the worst performances you’ll see and jumped guillotine so many times he should have been deducted a point. Nothing Dumas did in the fight was especially impressive and he more or less won by default. Prior to that, Dumas suffered his first career loss, when he got submitted in the second round of his UFC debut against Josh Fremd. Dumas was never able to get anything going in the fight, as Fremd had him hurt on the feet and was also able to take him down twice on two attempts and easily control him on the mat and eventually work his way to a guillotine finish midway through round two. Dumas had originally been scheduled to face Abu Azaitar there, but Azaitar dropped out and Fremd was announced as the replacement 16 days out. Leading up to that loss, Dumas won his first seven fights after turning pro in September 2020 and punched his ticket to the UFC with a 47 second first round submission win on DWCS. Just keep in mind, he hadn’t been facing much in the way of competition.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Dumas has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. Four of his finishes occurred in the first round, with the last three of those ending in 90 seconds or less. His other two early wins both ended in round two. Just keep in mind, he’s fought a very low level of competition, with his first three opponents all having losing records and his next two each coming in just 1-0 in their respective careers. Then he took on a struggling undersized opponent, leading up to his win on DWCS. While he locked up a submission win on DWCS, four of his last five finishes have come by KO/TKO. His only career loss was the second round submission in his UFC debut.
Overall, Dumas has a Dutch Kickboxing striking style, and is also a BJJ purple belt who looks to mix in grappling, but looked terrible off his back in his debut. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Dumas landed one of his two takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on four of their six attempts (33.3% defense). He has dangerous kicks that he uses to attack his opponents at all levels, and has both head kick and leg kick KO/TKOs on his record. However, we haven’t been impressed by what we’ve seen from him.
Abu Azaitar
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)It’s been 31 months since the 37-year-old Azaitar last competed and he’s only fought once in the last 5+ years since winning a decision in his 2018 UFC debut against a 39-year-old Vitor Miranda who came in on a two fight skid and then retired after suffering his third straight loss. In his last fight, Azaitar completely gassed out in round two and Marc-Andre Barriault eventually finished him with ground and pound in the closing seconds of round three.
Now 14-3 as a pro, Azaitar has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and six decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice and has one DQ lock for eye gouging. His last four fights all made it to the third round, with three of those going the distance.
Overall, Azaitar is an aging striker with a terrible gas tank who rarely competes. He’s pretty wild with his striking and it’s hard to imagine he’s made many meaningful improvements in his late 30s. Him and his brother Ottman both look like frauds, and they train out of Germany. In his two UFC fights, Azaitar landed just one of his four takedown attempts (25% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on three of their five attempts (40% defense). Azaitar has okay power, but that’s really all he has going for him and we’d be surprised if he ever won another UFC fight.
Fight Prediction:
Dumas will have a 5” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, in addition to being nine years younger than the 37-year-old Azaitar.
This is such a low-level fight that you have to wonder what it’s even doing on a PPV card. Both guys are strikers, but will occasionally mix in some grappling. Neither of them have good cardio, but Azaitar’s cardio is especially bad and he gassed out after the first round in his last fight. That left him teed up to be finished late in the fight. It’s possible we see that happen again, although it’s unclear if Dumas has the cardio to find a late finish and all six of his early career wins have come in the first two rounds. We won’t be surprised if the third round gets sloppy and they end up limping their way to a decision, but anything’s possible in a fight like this. Dumas will look for guillotines, while it’s been 12 years since Azaitar landed the only submission of his career. Both guys are so terrible that it’s hard to trust either one of them, but we can’t possibly pick Azaitar based on how bad his cardio is. So the only question is whether or not Dumas finishes him, and that’s a tough one to answer. Dumas has yet to look even remotely dangerous in the UFC and was content with riding out top position to a decision win in his last outing, so it won’t be surprising to see the same here. We’ll say Dumas either wins with either a late finish or in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “ Dumas R3 or DEC” at +190.
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DFS Implications:
Dumas has yet to impress so far in the UFC and after getting submitted in his UFC debut, he only scored 79 DraftKings in his recent decision win over Cody Brundage, despite finishing that fight with over 11 minutes of control time. He just wasn’t doing much with the position and seemed content to ride out a decision, despite Brundage basically quitting in the fight. That’s concerning for Dumas’ scoring potential moving forward and leaves him more reliant on landing finishes to score well. And while six of his eight career wins have come early, all of those finishes were against a very low level of competition. Working in Dumas’ favor, he’s taking on a 37-year-old opponent who has terrible cardio and hasn’t fought in over two years. Azaitar completely gassed out in his last fight, allowing Marc-Andre Barriault to score a slate-breaking 132 DraftKings points and 147 FanDuel points against him. That’s enough for us to play literally anyone against Azaitar, however, Dumas’ lack of output on the mat in his last match is concerning for his ability to fully capitalize on the potential opportunity. Dumas also looked tired himself late in that last fight, so this could just get sloppy all around in the third round, with neither guy having the energy to finish strong. Nevertheless, it makes sense to have some exposure to Dumas and just hope that his cardio holds up and that he can be more active in favorable positions. The odds imply Dumas has a 68% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Azaitar has somehow managed to remain on the UFC roster through some sort of clerical error, as he’s only fought once in the last five years, which was in a 2021 R3 TKO loss where he death gassed in round two. His only other UFC fight was a low-volume 2018 decision win over a struggling 39-year-old opponent who then immediately retired. Azaitar also tired out in that fight, but was at least able to hang on to win a low scoring decision, where he put up 83 DraftKings points. It’s amazing the UFC hasn’t cut him yet, and he’s given us no indication that he can be of any use in DFS. He looks like a R1 KO or bust option, who hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2015 and is now facing an opponent who has never been knocked out. The only reasons to consider playing Azaitar are that DUmas is also terrible and Azaitar will be low owned. The odds imply Azaitar has a 32% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Javid Basharat
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Basharat continues to win decisions in all of his UFC fights, with the most recent of those coming against a debuting Mateus Mendonca. Basharat took Mendonca down three times and controlled him for over five minutes, while tripling him up in significant strikes 95-29. Prior to that, Basharat won a decision over Tony Gravely, after defeating Trevin Jones in his UFC debut. While all of Basharat’s UFC fights have ended with the judges, he finished 11 straight opponents before joining the organization. Basharat punched his ticket to the UFC with a 2021 R3 submission win on DWCS.
Now 14-0 as a pro, Basharat has five wins by TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. All five of his TKO wins occurred in round one, as did two of his submission victories. He also has two second round submission wins and one in round three. His last two finishes came by submission in the later rounds. After eight of his first nine pro wins ended in the first round, his last five have all seen the second round, with his last four making it to round three and his last three going the distance.
Overall, Basharat is a very well rounded fighter who’s dangerous anywhere a fight can go. He’s light on his feet, does a masterful job of controlling distance, and has good movement. He avoids taking unnecessary damage and is a tough opponent to deal with. He has a Taekwondo background, which is evident when you see him throw kicks, but he also seamlessly mixes in his grappling and likes to look for chokes on the mat. He has a solid 85% takedown defense, while he lands 57% of his attempts and between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 8 of his 14 takedown attempts, while his opponents only got him down on 4 of their 27 attempts.
Victor Henry
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Henry is coming off a split decision win over Tony Gravely, where Henry impressively outlanded Gravely 154-75 in significant strikes and 190-90 in total strikes, while stuffing 14 of his 17 takedown attempts and also finishing with two official submission attempts. The judging was all over the place, with one scoring it 30-27 for Henry, another 29-28 for Henry, and the third 29-28 for Gravely. Prior to that, Henry lost a decision to a 40-year-old Raphael Assuncao and Henry’s results have not matched the odds. He won as a +425 underdog against Raoni Barcelos in his UFC debut, before losing as a -400 favorite against Assuncao. He set a crazy pace in his UFC debut against Raoni Barcelos, as he outlanded Barcelos 181-134 in significant strikes and 222-134 in total strikes, while stuffing all but one of Barcelos’ seven takedown attempts on his way to winning a unanimous 30-27 decision. However, after that incredibly impressive performance, Henry came back down to earth in his last fight when he lost a unanimous 30-27 decision against a struggling Raphael Assuncao, who came in on a four fight losing streak. Henry got taken down twice on five attempts by Assuncao, while getting outlanded 60-55 in significant strikes and 78-61 in total strikes. To Henry’s credit, he was able to bounce back with an impressive performance in his last match, and he’s been a bit of a wildcard so far in the UFC. While Henry is just 3-2 in his last five outings, he has won 11 of his last 13 fights, with his last four wins prior to joining the UFC all coming early. However, only one of his last 17 fights ended in the first round, and 11 of those 17 matches went the distance, including all three of his UFC fights.
Now 23-6 as a pro, Henry has six wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and nine decision victories. He’s never been finished in his 13 year career, with all six of his losses going the distance. His last three finishes have all come in the later rounds, with two of those ending in submissions.
Overall, Henry has fought all over the world since turning pro in 2010. While the majority of his time has been spent in California and Japan, he also has fought in Russia and Dubai. He’s decently well rounded with his grappling and striking and is a former catch wrestling champion. He tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on opposed to landing huge finishing shots early on and 9 of his last 12 fights have seen a third round, with seven of those going the distance. He landed an insane number of strikes in both of his UFC wins and has the ability to keep up a crazy pace. In his three UFC fights, Henry has been taken down just six times on 29 opponent attempts (79.3% defense), while he failed to land either of his own two attempts.
Fight Prediction:
Basharat will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while also being eight years younger than the 36-year-old Henry.
This is a fantastic matchup that should be a fun one to watch. Both guys are incredibly tough and neither of them have ever been finished. They’re both extremely well-rounded and this one should be competitive wherever the fight goes. However, Henry hasn’t been looking to wrestle offensively much in the UFC and is generally content with trying to outland his way to victory. Basharat has looked for more takedowns, but also has no problem partaking in a striking battle. We have seen Henry get taken down and controlled at times, so we expect Basharat to find some success in that department and ultimately that will likely be what sets him apart and wins him the fight. Henry operates at a crazy pace, which Basharat could struggle to keep up with if he can’t land takedowns to slow Henry down. That at least keeps Henry live in this spot to outwork his way to another massive upset decision win, but we still like Basharat to squeak out a decision win with the help of his grappling.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -225.
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DFS Implications:
Basharat has been impressive in terms of his ability to neutralize opponents and win fights with relative ease, but he’s only averaged 83 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, all of which went the distance. However, we have seen his scoring continue to improve, and after notching just 66 points in his UFC debut, he scored 83 points in his next fight and 99 points most recently. In fairness, he also faced a UFC newcomer in his last fight, after taking on a pair of veterans before that. Henry has never been finished in his career, and Basharat hasn’t looked like any sort of finisher since joining the UFC, so our hopes for Basharat to end things early are very low. However, Henry pushes such a crazy pace (8.67 SSL/min and 5.98 SSA/min) that it could result in Basharat filling up the stat sheet in a decision, at least leaving him with some chance of scoring well. The odds imply Basharat has an 82% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Henry has also gone the distance in all three of his UFC fights, but impressively averaged 110 DraftKings points in his two wins, despite failing to land any knockdowns or takedowns in any of those fights. He just operates at an insane pace and puts up huge striking totals, landing 154 and 181 significant strikes in his two wins. However, he also landed just 55 significant strikes in his loss to Raphael Assuncao, so he has been somewhat hot or cold. In fairness, Assuncao has a knack for making fights ugly. Nevertheless, that at least shows it is possible to slow Henry down, so we can’t just assume he’ll land 150 significant strikes every time he goes out there. Basharat has really good movement and defense and only averages 2.30 SSA/min, and the larger Octagon could also help Basharat to evade and slow the pace down. That leaves Henry with a wider range of potential scoring outcomes, but at his cheap price tag, he is an interesting underdog with high upside and he won’t need to put up a huge score to end up in winning lineups. He’s also shown the ability to pull off massive upsets before and has tons of experience, so you can’t count him out. The odds imply Henry has an 18% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Trevor Peek
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Peek dropped a decision to Jose Mariscal, who was making his short notice UFC debut up a weight class. That fight was absolutely insane, but Mariscal was the more well-rounded fighter and used that to land four takedowns in between periods of brawling, to secure every round in the fight. Prior to that, Peek landed a knockout in the final second of the first round of his UFC debut against a terrible Erick Gonzalez, after landing a second round knockout on DWCS. Similar to his last fight, Peek got taken down four times by Gonzalez, but Gonzalez did a poor job of holding positions, which allowed Peek to return to his feet each time and eventually find a finish. Peek also got taken down four times in his DWCS match and that’s been an ongoing theme in his fights. He also nearly got knocked out in that DWCS fight, but he was able to recover and come back to land his own knockout after his opponent gassed out. Just a month before going on DWCS, Peek knocked out a fragile Khama Worthy late in the first round.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Peek has six first round KO/TKO wins and two in round two. He’s only been in one fight that lasted longer than eight minutes and two seconds, which was his recent decision loss. He hasn’t faced much in the way of competition, and when he finally faced a tougher opponent in his recent loss to Mariscal, he lost every round of the fight. Peek has fought between 155 lb and 180 lb in his career, but has remained at 155 lb since 2022 and it appears that’s where he’ll stay moving forward.
Overall, Peek is an aggressive brawler who comes into every fight looking to knock opponents out, whether it be on the feet or through ground and pound on the mat. He averages 5.65 SSL/min and 5.18 SSA/min and will also look for occasional takedowns, but hasn’t shown any sort of submission game and is just looking to beat opponents up on the ground. Between his DWCS match and his two UFC fights, he only landed one of his three takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 12 of their 26 attempts (53.8% defense). He’s shown the ability to absorb damage and keep on going, and also showed the ability to go 15 full minutes in his last fight at a crazy pace. All of Peek’s career has been spent in the US, but now he’ll be fighting abroad for the first time as he travels into enemy territory. He talked about how it felt weird fighting in the Apex for DWCS without his home crowd behind him, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to having a crowd that’s rooting for his opponent.
Mohammad Yahya
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut in front of his home Abu Dhabi crowd, Yahya’s last two fights were both in the Etihad Arena, where UFC 294 will also be taking place. His last three matches were all scheduled to go five rounds in UAE Warriors Lightweight Championship fights, with the last two of those making it to round five, and the most recent ending in a close decision, that he arguably could have lost. His fight before that was against a short notice replacement who missed weight by two pounds and is now 1-4 in his last five fights, yet still gave Yahya some trouble on the feet early on. So Yahya hasn’t been especially impressive lately, but has won his last five fights. After getting submitted by a 3-0 Dan Collins back in late 2020.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Yahya has seven wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been finished in all three of his losses, with one knockout and two submissions. All three of those defeats came in the first two rounds, with the last two ending in submissions in the final 30 seconds of round two. While Yahya has only made it to the judges in three of his 15 pro fights, all three of those decisions came in his last five fights and his last seven matches all made it out of the first round. He’s also fought a lot of questionable competition, so take his record with a grain of salt.
Overall, Yahya is decently well-rounded but not overly impressive anywhere. He’ll mix in takedown attempts and is somewhat dangerous on the mat, but hasn’t blown us away with his wrestling. And while he has decent power in his striking, he didn’t throw a ton of volume in his last couple of fights and has looked prone to getting dropped. We saw him get sat down early in his last fight and twice by Dan Collins in his last loss. Yahya will get lazy with his hands at times, keeping them too low to defend himself, which is something he needs to improve. We’ve also seen him slow down at times, and even after the second round in his recent five round decision, he already looked tired. He has been training some with Chimaev lately, so maybe we’ll see some improvements from him in his UFC debut. With that said, he’s probably only getting a shot in the UFC based on proximity, because he’s from the United Arab Emirates and will be the first Emirate in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’9” but Yahya will have a 3” reach advantage.
Who doesn’t love a Trevor Peek fight? It’s the closest thing to a bar fight you’ll see inside the Octagon and the only thing missing is snapped off pool cues, smashed beer bottles, and shattered chairs. While that may not be conducive to a long career or climbing the rankings, he can definitely throw down against lower-level competition. While it remains to be seen how Yahya will transition to the UFC level, he was very prone to getting dropped on the regional scene, which is a dangerous flaw to exhibit coming into a Trevor Peek fight. Yahya should have the grappling advantage, but Peek is a brute who subscribes to the Derrick Lewis school of “just get up” grappling. So while he has been prone to getting taken down, he generally does a good job of simply powering his way back to his feet. And whenever this fight remains standing, Yahya will be at risk of getting knocked out. Peek does absorb a lot of damage himself, but the next fighter to knock him out will also be the first and the man can take a hell of a punch and keep on truckin’. We expect him to outpace Yahya and eventually catch him with something that Yahya can’t recover from, likely early on in the match. We like Peek to knock Yahya out in the first two rounds, most likely in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Peek KO” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Peek’s brawling fighting style and 100% finishing rate is perfectly suited for DFS production and he put up a slate-breaking 131 DraftKings points in a perfectly timed knockout in the final second of the first round in his UFC debut. While he did follow that up with a decision loss where he only scored 31 DraftKings points, we’re playing him for his finishing ability and not the hopes that he’ll score well in a decision. He’s been taken down four times in all of his last three fights, but has done a pretty good job of returning to his feet. All eight of his pro wins have come by knockout in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one, and he’s an offensively minded fighter who throws caution to the wind. He’s constantly looking to land bombs and/or occasionally take opponents down and beat them up with ground and pound, all of which is great for DFS. Just keep in mind, he only turned pro in 2020 and trains at a smaller gym with limited experienced training partners. He struggled early in his DWSC match, saying that he suffered an adrenaline dump and wasn’t used to fighting without his home crowd cheering him on, and now he’ll be fighting abroad for the first time and going into enemy territory. So we don’t know how he’ll handle the situation and there is some additional volatility to an already volatile fighter. It’s best to treat Peek as a KO or bust fighter with a ton of upside and an uncertain floor. He’ll also be very popular and he was 41% owned on DraftKings in his UFC debut and 49% owned in his last fight. That creates some merit in looking for ways he fails, but if he lands a knockout he’ll almost certainly end up in tournament winning lineups at his reasonable price tag. The odds imply Peek has a 60% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 28% chance it comes in round one.
Yahya will be making his UFC debut in front of his home crowd and the UFC set him up with the most exciting matchup you could ask for. While Yahya has looked somewhat decent offensively at times, he’s been very prone to getting dropped, which is the last area of weakness you want to have going against a brawler like Peek. So Yahya would be wise to try and lean heavily on his grappling and avoid at all costs getting caught up in a firefight with Peek. While we’re not convinced that his grappling game is good enough to completely neutralize Peek, if it is, that sort of win would score well on DraftKings. And if it’s not, then Peek should turn this into a firefight where whoever wins will likely score well. With the pace Peek sets and his struggles at defending takedowns, we’re generally going to want to target both sides of his fights and this spot is no different. Peek probably knocks Yahya out, but if he doesn’t, Yahya will have a good shot at returning value at his cheaper price tag. The odds imply Yahya has a 40% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Muhammad Mokaev
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Mokaev narrowly escaped his last fight with a third round submission win, after somehow surviving a locked-in kneebar that he simply refused to tap to. However, he paid the price for those heroics, as he left the fight with a grade 2 partial MCL tear. However, it looked a lot worse at the time and the injury only required six to eight weeks of recovery time. Mokaev also came into that fight with a shoulder injury, so perhaps the time off is just what he needed after he competed four times in his first year in the UFC. Mokaev exploded onto the UFC scene in March 2022 in front of his home London crowd with a 58 second submission win over Cody Durden. He followed that up with a dominant wrestling-heavy decision win over Charles Johnson, before landing a pair of third round submissions in his last two fights. Mokaev only turned pro in 2020, but had a lengthy 23-0 undefeated amateur career from 2015 to 2020 and was regarded by many as the best amateur in the world. After winning both of his amateur fights in early 2020, including the IMMAF Bantamweight Championship, he won his first four pro fights that year as well. He then won two fights in 2021 and had a third match ruled a No Contest for an accidental groin strike. He said his goal was to become the youngest UFC champion of all time, which drove him to fight through injuries and compete as often as possible.
Now 10-0 as a pro, Mokaev is still undefeated with two wins by TKO, five submissions, and three decision victories. Both of his TKO wins ended in round one, while three of his submission victories ended in round three, with the other two coming in the first two rounds. Mokaev started his career at 135 lb, but all of his UFC fights have been at 125 lb.
Overall, Mokaev is a celebrated wrestler and highly touted prospect who’s still just 23 years old and should be improving all the time. He’s extremely fluid with his transitions and is relentless with his takedown attempts. He’ll seamlessly chain takedowns together and does a good job of quickly reverse positions. He’s not helpless on the feet either, but his wrestling is what got him to the UFC. In his four UFC fights, he landed 22 takedowns on 41 attempts (53.7% accuracy), while he‘s also been taken down on both of his opponents’ attempts. Mokaev came into his last fight banged up with a shoulder injury and left with a knee injury, but has now had seven months to heal up, while continuing to learn and grow as a young fighter. We’re interested to see what improvements he’s made in his time away and we still have high expectations for him moving forward.
Tim Elliott
19th UFC Fight (8-10)Coming off a pair of decision wins, Elliott has gone the distance in five straight fights, winning four of those decisions. He’s fresh off a wrestling-heavy victory over Victor Altamirano, who has struggled with being controlled on his back at multiple points in his career. Elliott was able to land six takedowns with over 11 minutes of control time in the win. Prior to that, Elliott hadn’t competed in 16 months following a decision win over Tagir Ulanbekov, as Elliott dealt with a smorgasbord of personal problems. His wife left him for his best friend, his gym got shut down by the UFC, his former coach is being investigated by the FBI, his previous coach committed suicide, and all of the metal screws in Elliott’s surgically repaired knee fell out so the doctors had to go in and replace all the metal hardware with plastic. And after recovering from all that, he tore his Meniscus and had to fly down to Mexico to get stem cell treatment to help him recover. Now he’s training at a small gym in Texas, which means he’s separated from his daughter for the first time and only gets to see her occasionally.
While Elliott is just 8-10 in the UFC, most of his losses were against top-level guys like Matheus Nicolau, Brandon Royval, Askar Askarov, Deiveson Figueiredo, Demetrious Johnson, and Joseph Benavidez. Elliott showed complete contempt for the rules in his second most recent win when he defeated Tagir Ulanbekov, but landed an illegal knee or two, blatantly grabbed Ulanbekov’s glove to hold him in place, headbutted him to open up a cut, and flirting with multiple eye pokes. He was one groin strike away from completing his dirty Bingo card. Prior to that win, Elliott lost a close decision to Matheus Nicolau, after dominating Jordan Espinosa on the ground for three rounds. Elliott notably shredded his knee in June of 2018, which resulted in nearly a two year layoff from December 2017 until October 2019 and he lost his first three fights after coming back, but now he seems back on track as he’s gone 4-1 since that string of losses.
Now 19-12-1 as a pro, Elliott has three wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and 10 decision victories. All three of his knockouts came early in his career from 2009 to 2011 and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017, with his only other submission win since 2012 coming in 2015 in between his first and second stints with the UFC. He’s only been knocked out once himself, which came in the first round of his third pro fight back in 2009. However, he’s been submitted five times and also has six decision defeats. His last 22 fights all ended in either decisions (9-6) or submissions (3-4). Those last seven submissions all occurred in the first two rounds, although Eliott was submitted in the third round earlier in his career. Seven of his eight UFC wins went the distance, with his only early win in the UFC coming in a 2017 R2 anaconda choke against a terrible Mark De La Rosa.
Overall, Elliott is a former high school state champion wrestler and his fighting style can only be described as kinetic grapple tweaking with serious meth head vibes. His unusual style makes him a tough opponent to prepare for, but he relies on his wrestling to win fights. We’ve seen Elliott slow down at times in the back half of fights when he pushes the pace too hard early, but that’s certainly not always the case. In his last 10 fights, Elliott landed 24 of his 73 takedown attempts (32.9% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 24 attempts (70.8% defense). Elliott has attempted seven or more takedowns in seven straight fights, with double digit attempts in four of those.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7”, but Mokaev will have a 4” reach advantage and is 13 years younger than the 36-year-old Elliott.
Elliott has gone 1-4 in his last five fights where he entered as an underdog, with the one win coming in a close fight against Tagir Ulanbekov. And he comes into this matchup against Mokaev as a sizable underdog, so his track record isn’t very encouraging. Elliott relies on his wrestling to win fights and that’s where Mokaev excels, so this looks like a tough stylistic matchup for Elliott, who has also been prone to getting submitted throughout his career. The UFC wants to build Mokaev up and they wouldn’t be pairing him up against Elliott if they thought he would lose. Mokaev trains at KHK MMA Team in Bahrain, which is not far from Abu Dhabi, and Mokaev will have the crowd behind him. The only way Elliott wins fights is to wrestle his way to decisions and it’s tougher to see him finding success with that approach here, although it’s always tougher to know how exactly two wrestlers will stack up until you see them in the cage together. We’re expecting some crazy scrambles on the mat and it’s possible Elliott can find brief periods of success, but Mokaev is the much more dangerous submission threat and we like his chances of locking something up at some point in the match. His last two submissions both occurred in round three and we have seen Elliott gas at times, increasing the potential for another late finish here. However, there’s also a good chance that the fight doesn’t make it that far and a finish could come at any point, so we’ll just stick with Mokaev wins by submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Muhammad Mokaev SUB” at +210.
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DFS Implications:
Mokaev has averaged an impressive 117 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, with three scores of 120 or more. The only time he failed to crack the century mark was in his recent third round submission win, where he entered the match with a shoulder injury and then suffered a partial MCL tear in round three. Just surviving the kneebar attempt that tore his knee up was impressive, let alone the fact that he then secured a submission of his own before the fight ended. Mokaev came into the UFC incredibly hyped, which has set the bar high for him and resulted in a lot of criticism anytime he makes a mistake. However, it’s important to keep in mind he’s still just 23 years old and only turned pro in 2020. He’s far from a finished product at this early stage in his career, but should be improving every time he steps inside the Octagon. He’s now had seven months to recover from knee and shoulder injuries so he should come in fresh. While his grappling-heavy style will generally score better on DraftKings than FanDuel, he’s still averaged 104 FanDuel points in his four wins, scoring 94 or more in all of those. With that said, he’s definitely more reliant on landing a finish to return value on FanDuel, while he has shown a massive scoring floor on DraftKings regardless of how fights end. As the most expensive fighter on DraftKings, there are obviously still ways he scores well and gets priced out of winning lineups, but he has massive scoring potential. The odds imply Mokaev has a 76% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Elliott has managed to win two straight and four of his last five fights, but he’s never won three fights in a row in the UFC and is now getting a big step up in competition. He relies on his wrestling to grind out decision wins on the mat, but he’ll face a fellow wrestler here, who will also threaten submissions through the fight. Elliott has also been prone to getting submitted throughout his career, with five submission losses on his record, and Mokaev has won three of his four UFC fights by submission. That makes this an incredibly risky matchup for Elliott, despite his recent success. To his credit, he’s amazingly averaged 116 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins, despite seven of those going the distance. His wrestling-heavy style is a much better fit for the DraftKings scoring system, and he’ll have a tougher time scoring well on FanDuel. While this looks like a really tough matchup for him, if he does somehow win, it would be hard to see him getting left out if winning DraftKings lineups as the cheapest fighter on the card. There’s always a slim chance that his crackhead strength will be too much for the young 23-year-old phenom in Mokaev, but that’s certainly not what we’re expecting to happen. The odds imply Eliott has a 24% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Said Nurmagomedov
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Coming off just his second loss in his last 13 fights, Nurmagomedov dropped a close decision to Jonathan Martinez, despite finishing ahead in significant strikes 47-38, in total strikes 101-78, and in takedowns 3-0. Following the loss, Nurmagomedov had been scheduled to fight Kyler Phillips on August 5th, but dropped out around the same time Umar Nurmagomedov did. Prior to his recent loss, Nurmagomedov had won four straight fights, with three of those ending in the first two rounds. The most recent of those wins came in a second round submission win over a really tough Saidyokub Kakhramonov. Things were looking dicey for Nurmagomedov in that fight before he locked in the submission, as he got taken down five times and controlled for nearly eight minutes in a fight that didn’t even make it to the nine minute mark. Before that, Nurmagomedov won a close decision over Douglas Silva de Andrade after landing a pair of first round finishes in under 60 seconds against Cody Stamann and Mark Striegl. Nurmagomedov has three first round finishes in total since joining the UFC, and one in round two, with his other four matches going the distance (2-2). His one other UFC loss came in a 2019 decision against Raoni Barcelos and 19 of Nurmagomedov’s 20 pro fights have either ended in the first round (8-0) or gone the distance (8-3).
Now 17-3 as a pro, Nurmagomedov has four wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and eight decision victories. Eight of his nine finishes came in round one, with the other ending in round two. He’s never been finished and all three of his losses went the distance. Nurmagomedov started his career at 145 lb before dropping down to 135 lb in his fourth pro fight. He tried moving all the way down to 125 lb in his UFC debut, but after winning a split decision he moved back up to 135 lb, where he’s remained since.
While Said shares the Nurmagomedov name he’s often content relying more on his striking than his wrestling. However, he is a solid grappler and will look for takedowns sporadically. In his eight UFC fights, he landed just 5 of his 30 attempts (16.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 8 of their 23 attempts (65.2% defense). He throws a ton of spinning attacks, but he’s also incredibly dangerous with his submission attempts as we saw when he submitted Saidyokub Kakhramonov and Cody Stamann in two of his last three wins. He’s yet to land more than 65 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorb more than 42, and he only averages 3.54 SSL/min and 2.15 SSA/min. We’ve seen him tire late in fights, which helps to explain why he’s never landed a finish beyond the second round.
Muin Gafurov
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Gafurov will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss in his short notice UFC debut against John Castaneda. Despite taking that fight on short notice, Gafurov pushed a pretty crazy pace, as he threw the kitchen sink at Castaneda. However, that pace caught up with him in round three as he finally slowed down, and he was also deducted a point in the second round for leading with his head. Following that loss, Gafurov had been scheduled to fight Taylor Lapilus on September second, but ended up dropping out. Prior to making his UFC debut, Gafurov knocked out two opponents in the later rounds, after losing a split decision to Chad Anheliger on DWCS in 2021. Gafurov also notably lost a 2019 decision to John Lineker in Lineker’s first fight after leaving the UFC. Gafurov bounced back with a decision win of his own, the first of his career, leading up to his loss on DWCS.
Now 18-5 as a pro, Gafurov has 10 wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and one decision victory. He’s never been finished, with all five of his losses going the distance. He’s fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb and went the distance against a dangerous John Lineker at 145 lb. However, his last four fights have all been at 135 lb and it appears that’s where he’ll stay for the foreseeable future.
Overall, Gafurov is an aggressive wrestler from Tajikistan, but has also proven himself to be a dangerous striker. He pushes a high pace, which sometimes results in him gassing out late in fights. Between his DWCS match and his recent UFC debut, he landed 5 of his 18 takedown attempts (27.8% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 3 of their 8 attempts (62.5% defense). Gafurov also notably got knocked down in each of those fights. The UFC isn’t giving Gafurov any easy fights, as he faces another really tough opponent here.
Fight Prediction:
Nurmagomedov will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while also being four years older than the 27-year-old Gafurov.
Nurmagomedov has a knack for landing first round finishes, whether they be by submission or some sort of spinning attack. He’s really good at locking in chokes, but only one of his 20 pro fights ended in rounds two or three, and he’s the most dangerous in the opening five minutes. However, the last time he finished someone it did occur in the second round, after his previous eight finishes all ended in round one. While Gafurov has never been finished in his career, he also hasn’t faced the same level of competition that Nurmagomedov has. Gafurov gets pretty sloppy with both his striking and his grappling, and there’s a good chance that will result in him walking into either a spinning backfist or some sort of front choke. Considering how many takedowns Gafurov typically shoots for, there’s a good chance Nurmagomedov will be able to lock up a choke during one of those exchanges, assuming he doesn’t knock him out before that. However, if Gafurov can survive the opening round and a half, it is possible that he can wear Nurmagomedov out with his relentless pace, although that could also result in both guys gassing and limping to a decision. We like Nurmagomedov’s chances of handing Gafurov the first early loss of his career, most likely in a first round submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Said Nurmagomedov R1” at +410.
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DFS Implications:
Nurmagomedov has been a boom or bust DFS commodity throughout his career and has yet to score more than 76 DraftKings points in a fight that made it out of the first round. He only scored 59 and 69 points in his two decision wins, and in his one career finish that occurred in the later rounds, he only scored 76 points. However, he averaged 116 points in his three first round finishes, with two of those garnering the Quick Win Bonus. He only averages 3.54 SSL/min and his takedown attempts have been sporadic, while his cardio in the third round hasn’t looked great. So he’s given us no indication that he can even theoretically score well without a first round finish. While Gafurov has never been finished in his career, he also has just one UFC fight under his belt and his aggressively reckless fighting style seemingly leaves him vulnerable to either walking into something or getting caught up in a choke. So this still looks like a decent spot for Nurmagomedov to find the first round finish he needs to score well, but it will require Gafurov suffering the first early loss of his career. The odds imply Nurmagomedov has a 66% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Gafurov’s high pace and constant pursuit of takedowns will always keep him in the DFS discussion, but he’s pretty reckless and will likely need a more favorable matchup to eventually secure his first UFC win. The UFC has done him no favors so far, and after he dropped out of his last fight, this could be a punishment for him. His wrestling-heavy style lends itself more to the DraftKings scoring system, however, 17 of his 18 career wins have come early. He still needs to show that finishing ability can translate to the UFC level and this will be a tough spot to achieve that as he faces a dangerous opponent who’s never been finished. However, we have seen Nurmagomedov get outwrestled and also slow down in the third round, so it’s possible Gafurov can put a pace on him and wear him out. The concerns there are that Nurmagomedov is a really dangerous grappler and the last time he got outwrestled he still eventually locked up a choke, and if Gafurov is pushing a pace he may wear himself out as well. So this will be a thin needle for Gafurov to thread, with several pitfalls to avoid along the way. We’ll be more interested in playing Gafurov in the future if the UFC ever gives him a more favorable matchup, but at his cheap price tag, if he does win he’ll have a good shot at ending up in winning lineups. The odds imply Gafurov has a 34% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Ikram Aliskerov
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Aliskerov had been scheduled to fight Nassourdine Imavov here, but Imavov dropped out and Alves was announced as the replacement on October 7th. Aliskerov had also been booked to face Paulo Costa back in July, but that fight got scrapped.
Coming off a first round knockout win in his UFC debut over Phil Hawes, Aliskerov has won six straight fights since suffering the only loss of his career in a 2019 R1 KO against Khamzat Chimaev. Aliskerov generally relies on his grappling to win fights, but never even looked for a takedown against Hawes and was able to finish him on the feet. Prior to that, Aliskerov landed a first round submission on DWCS, with one of his go-to kimuras. Three of his last five wins ended by kimura and he nearly locked up another one over that stretch. Eight of his last nine fights ended early and he’s only been to one decision since 2018.
Now 14-1 as a pro, Aliskerov has five wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and four decision victories. Three of those knockouts ended in round one with the other two occurring in round three. Three of his submission wins ended in the first round, one came in round two, and the other ended in round three. His only career loss also ended in a first round knockout.
Overall, Aliskerov is a Dagestani four time Combat Sambo World Champion who has spent time training with Khabib and looks to be the next hot grappling prospect from Dagestan. While most of his recent wins have come through his grappling, he has shown the ability to strike when he needs to, which was on display in his recent UFC debut. However, it’s definitely his grappling that got him to the UFC and he’s not a guy that will put up big striking totals. He does a good job of avoiding damage (except for in the Chimaev fight) and looks kind of like Makhachev lite. We still need to see how he fares against top level talent in the UFC, but he’s definitely a guy to keep an eye on moving forward and we expect him to make a run in the division.
Warlley Alves
15th UFC Fight (8-6)Alves stepped into this matchup on just two weeks’ notice and is moving back up to 185 lb for the first time since his 2014 UFC debut. He’s lost two straight and three of his last four, with his only win since 2019 coming in a 2021 R1 TKO win over Mounir Lazzez. His most recent loss came in a split decision against Nicolas Dalby, who outlanded Alves 119-66 in significant strikes and 167-75 in total strikes. Prior to that, it had been a year and a half since Alves last competed, when he got knocked out in the second round of a June 2021 fight against Jeremiah Wells, who was making his short notice UFC debut. So Alves has only competed once in the last 28 months and only three times in the last four years.
Now 14-6 as a pro, Alves has four wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and four decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has three decision losses. While Alves’ last fight went the distance, his previous six all ended early, however, only one of those was stopped in round one, with four ending in round two, and one in round three. His last three early losses all ended in the second round.
Overall, Alves is a BJJ black belt and a pretty well rounded fighter who comes out hot but fades down the stretch and is known for his suspect gas tank. He notably has a first round guillotine win over Colby Covington on his record, which is one of the moves Alves is known for and how he finished three of his first four UFC opponents. He only averages 3.21 SSL/min and 4.09 SSA/min, while tacking on 1.4 TDL/15 min. In his 14 UFC fights, he landed 13 of his 26 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 4 of their 20 attempts (80% defense). No one has ever gotten him down more than once in a fight, which is especially impressive when you consider he’s gone up against Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington in the past. And only once has he ever landed more than two takedowns in a UFC fight, which was when he landed three in a 2019 submission loss to Randy Brown. Despite joining the UFC all the way back in 2014, Alves is still only 32 years old.
Fight Prediction:
Aliskerov will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while also being two years younger than the 32-year-old Alves.
This is a really tough spot for Alves to find success, as he’s stepping in on short notice and up a weight class against a really tough, well-rounded opponent. Alves already has cardio concerns and the short notice nature of this matchup could just exacerbate those. While Alves is explosive early on in fights and has a solid guillotine, his tendency to fade after the first round, which leaves him prone to getting finished. Three of his last four losses occurred in the first half of round two, with two knockouts and one submission. And on the flipside, Aliskerov has been good at landing late round finishes, with four of his last six finishes coming in rounds two and three. Aliskerov has shown the ability to finish opponents both on the feet and the mat, but appeared determined to showcase his striking in his recent UFC debut. Perhaps he’ll stick with that as he faces a BJJ black belt in Alves who has a nasty guillotine choke, but we expect Aliskerov to want to showcase his grappling in the near future and what better time than in Abu Dhabi on a card filled with his fellow Dagestani grapplers? While it’s hard to know exactly what his approach will be and both a knockout or a submission are in play, it made some sense that he didn’t look to grapple in his last fight as Hawes was a former D1 wrestler with a 100% takedown defense, but a suspect chin. We like Aliskerov to finish Alves and we’ll say he gets it done in a second round kimura.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in SUB” at +160.
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DFS Implications:
Aliskerov is coming off a first round knockout win in his UFC debut that was good for 108 DraftKings points and he didn’t even have to show any of his grappling in that fight. However, he’s a Dagestani four time Combat Sambo World Champion and we generally see him dominate fights on the mat. That style of fighting gives him the ability to score well on DraftKings even in decision wins, whereas he’s reliant on landing finishes to score well on FanDuel. However, that hasn’t been a problem for him and seven of his last eight wins ended early. Now he’s facing an opponent in Alves who’s stepping in on short notice and fighting up a weight class. Alves has also been finished in three of his last four losses and tends to gas out after the first round. So overall, this looks like a great spot for Aliskerov to land another finish, and he’ll also have the crowd behind him. The only things he needs to be mindful of are that Alves is explosive in the first round of fights and also has a nasty guillotine. As long as Aliskerov can avoid eating too many clean shots in the opening five minutes or leaving his neck exposed for a guillotine, he’ll be in a great position to land a finish and put up a big score. However, as the second most expensive fighter on the card, he’ll still have to outscore the other high priced option to crack tournament winning lineups. The odds imply Aliskerov has an 83% chance to win, a 65% chance to land a finish, and a 39% chance it comes in round one.
Alves hasn’t won a fight in almost three years and is now moving up a weight class and stepping in on short notice. He also tends to gas out and can’t be trusted the longer fights go. Five of his last six wins ended early, so naturally he’s scored somewhat decently when he has won, but he only topped 96 DraftKings points in one of those victories and notably scored terribly in his lone decision win over that stretch. He’s averaged 87 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins, but the only time he’s ever really scored well was in his first round TKO victory over Mounir Lazzez where he scored 116 DraftKings points. That’s also Alves’ only fight in his last 10 outings to end in the first round, so while Alves typically doesn’t require the judges, most of his fights have made it out of the first round. At his cheap price tag, a late round finish would likely still be enough for him to crack winning lineups, but the circumstances surrounding him here make a late finish unlikely. He’ll likely need to either land a hail mary first round knockout or lock up a guillotine to pull off the upset, both of which are pretty unlikely in this really tough matchup. He’s nothing more than a dart throw and it looks like the UFC is just using him to build up Aliskerov. The odds imply Alves has a 17% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Magomed Ankalaev
12th UFC Fight (9-1-1)Ankalaev is 10 months removed from a five-round split-decision draw against Jan Blachowicz, in a fight that Ankalaev adamantly argued he won. Blachowicz landed a ton of heavy leg kicks early on, but Ankalaev came back and leaned on his wrestling to win the second half of the fight on the mat, even notching a 10-8 5th round on two of the three score cards. However, two of the three judges scored all of the first three rounds for Blachowicz, which resulted in a draw. That fight was originally scheduled to go three rounds as a co-main event, until Jiri Prochazka withdrew from his title fight against Glover Teixeira due to a very bad shoulder injury and then surprisingly vacated the belt due to the severity of the injury. Teixeira then declined to fight Ankalaev for the vacant belt on short notice and the UFC removed him from the card and elevated the Blachowicz/Ankalaev matchup from co-main to main, while putting the vacant belt on the line, which ultimately no one took home. Prior to that draw, Ankalaev had won nine straight fights, after getting submitted in the final second of his 2018 UFC debut against Paul Craig. Ankalaev’s last win came in a second round TKO win over Anthony Smith, who broke his left ankle in the first round of the fight. That’s Ankalaev’s only finish in his last five outings, after five of his first six UFC fights ended early.
Now 17-1-1 as a pro, Ankalaev has nine wins by KO/TKO and eight decisions, with his lone loss ending in a last second third round submission. Six of his nine knockouts occurred in the first round, one ended in round two, another came in round three, and the final one was in round four. It’s been three years since one of his fights ended in the first round.
Overall, Ankalaev is a violent yet patient striker, and also has a background in Greco-Roman wrestling, in addition to being a Master of Sports in Combat Sambo. However, he typically relies mostly on his striking and in his 11 UFC fights he only landed 9 takedowns on 31 attempts (29%). On the other side of things, he has a solid 86% takedown defense and has only been taken down three times on 22 opponent attempts. He has said that he knows the fans want to see striking, which can help to explain why we don’t see him wrestle more, but he still only averages 3.55 SSL/min and has never landed more than 78 significant strikes in a fight, which was his exact total in each of his five-round decisions. He also recently said that he’s been working on being more exciting in the Octagon and going for more finishes, so maybe we’ll see a more aggressive version of him here, or maybe that was all talk. He’ll have a chance to prove it on Saturday.
Johnny Walker
12th UFC Fight (7-4)After going just 1-4 in a five-fight stretch from 2019 to 2022, Walker has finally got some momentum going as he bounced back with three straight wins since then. His most recent win came in a decision against Anthony Smith, where Walker landed a ridiculous 51 leg strikes. That was only the second time Walker has thrown more than five leg strikes in a UFC fight, but he landed 51 of his 56 attempts. Prior to that rare decision win, Walker landed a pair of first round finishes against Paul Craig and Ion Cutelaba, after getting knocked out in the first round by Jamahal Hill. All 11 of Walker’s UFC fights have either ended in the first round (6-2) or gone the distance (1-2).
Now 21-7 as a pro, Walker has 16 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted once (R2 2015), and two decision defeats. His last three early losses all ended in first round knockouts, after he was finished in the second round in his first two early defeats. Of his 24 pro fights to end early (19-5), only four made it out of round one.
Overall, Walker is a physical freak and an aggressive power puncher. He showed cardio issues earlier in his career, but he’s made noticeable improvements, which were evident in his recent decision win. Between his 11 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed all three of the takedowns he attempted, although he’s only attempted two in his last 11 fights. On the other side of things, his opponents have gotten him down on 8 of their 20 attempts (60% defense). Five of the last six opponents who tried to take him down were successful, with the one exception being Thiago Santos who failed on his only attempt. While Walker is a BJJ brown belt, we rarely see much grappling from him, although he was able to submit the highly submittable Ion Cutelaba. He generally relies entirely on his power and athleticism to win fights, but has continued to grow as a fighter in the last few years since he started training at SBG Ireland and he’s a lot less wild now then he used to be.
Fight Prediction:
Walker will have a 3” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.
Ankalaev is the much more technical and well-rounded fighter in this matchup, but we did just see him get his legs destroyed by Jan Blachowicz and Walker is coming off a decision win where he landed 51 leg strikes. That at least presents a potential vulnerability for Walker to attack, but you have to imagine that Ankalaev has worked on ways to prevent that from happening again. Ankalaev recently talked about how he wants to put on more exciting fights and to push harder for finishes. And if you take him at his word, this looks like a great opportunity to end things early, as Walker has been put away in five of his seven career losses. However, it’s hard to truly trust Ankalaev to finish anyone, as four of his last five fights have gone the distance, and Walker has gotten a little more conservative with his approach. This would be a great spot for Ankalaev to lean on his wrestling, but he’s been reluctant to look for takedowns unless he has no other choice. And when he was talking about putting on more exciting fights, he specifically said the fans want to see striking. So we can’t rely on him making the smart decision and looking for takedowns here, unless all of that talk was simply to try and make Walker think he wasn’t going to grapple. We’re expecting more of a striking battle, unless Walker hurts Ankalaev on the feet and he has no option but to wrestle. Ankalaev clearly has the power to finish Walker and it’s a big step up in competition for Walker, but Ankalaev still needs to back up his words with his actions inside of the Octagon. We like him to win, but it’s a crapshoot as to whether it will come by knockout or decision, so we’d rather have the longer odds on the decision line.
Our favorite bet here is “Magomed Ankalaev DEC” at +230.
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DFS Implications:
Ankalaev has averaged 94 DraftKings points in his nine UFC wins, but has never scored more than 97 points in a fight that has made it out of the first round. He averaged 114 DraftKings points in his three R1 KO victories, but just 85 points in his other six wins. While he was able to score 96 points in a second round TKO victory in his last outing and 97 points in a 2019 third round KO win, at his high price tag that’s still not quite enough for him to return value. He only averaged 78 points in his three UFC three-round decision wins, failing to top 82 in any of those, so he’s given us zero indication that he can score well without a finish. While he is a solid wrestler, he’s reluctant to rely on his grappling, which makes him a frustrating fighter to depend on, as he has all the skills required to dominate opponents on the mat, but generally refuses to use them. He will fall back on his wrestling if he has to, which at least leaves him with a safer floor as he always has a solid contingency plan. However, that only adds to his appeal in low-risk contests and has yet to raise his ceiling for tournaments. So until he proves differently, we’ll continue to treat him as a R1 KO or bust option. The odds imply Ankalaev has a 74% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Walker is coming off his first decision win since his 2017 DWCS fight, and only scored 74 DraftKings points in that recent victory over Anthony Smith. His previous six UFC victories all ended in the first round, as have 17 of his 20 overall career wins. So it should come as no surprise that he averaged 114 DraftKings points in those prior six victories. However, he’s yet to show the ability to score well in fights that make it out of the first round, leaving him reliant on landing early finishes to score well. Now he’s facing a major step up in competition against an opponent in Ankalaev who’s never been knocked out and this will be the toughest fight of Walker’s career. While Walker’s cheap price tag leaves him with a wider range of useful scoring outcomes, he still looks like a hail mary KO or bust option. The odds imply Walker has a 26% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Khamzat Chimaev
7th UFC Fight (6-0)Chimaev had been set to face Paulo Costa, but he dropped out a week and a half before the fight and Usman was announced as the replacement on October 11th.
It’s been 13 months since Chimaev last competed, when he submitted Kevin Holland in the first round of a September 2022 180 lb Catchweight match. Chimaev had been scheduled to fight Nate Diaz at 170 lb on that date, but Chimaev missed weight by 7.5 lb, forcing the UFC to shuffle the main card in a series of last minute matchup changes. Prior to that, Chimaev threw down in a 15 minute war against Gilbert Burns, which is the only time Chimaev has faced any adversity in the UFC. That’s the only time that Chimaev has ever required the judges, as he got his hand raised in a unanimous 29-28 decision. Prior to that, Chimaev had run through his first four UFC opponents, with a second round submission over a terrible John Phillips, followed by two first round knockout wins over Rhys McKee and Gerald Meerschaert, followed by a first round submission over Li Jingliang. Chimaev drew extra attention to himself by winning his first two UFC fights just 10 days apart, at two different weight classes. Chimaev had also been scheduled to face Leon Edwards on three separate occasions following his win over Meerschaert, but all three were canceled due to COVID. Looking back to his pre-UFC career, Chimaev fought formerly undefeated Combat Sambo World Champion Ikram Aliskerov in 2019, and while Chimaev did unsuccessfully try to take the fight to the ground, he ultimately finished it with a violent knockout on the feet. So in general, when he faces strikers he gets them to the mat and easily finishes them, but when he faces grapplers he typically ends up standing and trading with them.
Now 12-0 as a pro, Chimaev has six wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and one decision win. Eight of his 11 finishes occurred in the first round, with the other three ending in round two. His last five knockouts have all come in round one, with his lone second round KO win coming in his 2018 pro debut. His four submission wins have been spread across the first two rounds. He’s split time between 170 lb and 185 lb throughout his career, and also has a handful of Catchweight fights. Four of his wins have been at 185 lb, five were at 170 lb, and three were at Catchweights between the two weight classes (176-180 lb). His last win came at 180 lb, after his two before that were at 170 lb. Now he’ll be moving back up to 185 lb for the first time since 2020.
Overall, Chimaev is a smothering wrestler and a dangerous striker. He’s huge at 170 lb, which has allowed him to simply overpower most of his opponents. We’ve yet to see anyone really test him at 185 lb, so it remains to be seen how he’ll fare against high-level competition at the heavier weight class. In his six fights, he landed 8 of his 14 takedown attempts (57.1% accuracy). The only opponent to try and take him down was Gilbert Burns, who failed to land any of his five attempts. After only absorbing one significant strike in his first four UFC fights, Chimaev ate 119 from Burns and showed that his striking defense (41%) is pretty poor when opponents can force him to stand and trade. Four of Chimaev’s six UFC wins resulted from him immediately taking his opponents down and he also had a 17 second knockout victory over a fragile Gerald Meerschaert. And while he was able to squeak out a win over Burns, keep in mind Burns is a smaller 170 lb fighter who used to compete at 155 lb. Now Chimaev will be moving up to 185 lb and there are a lot of unanswered questions surrounding how he’ll fare against larger opponents if he’s unable to land takedowns. However, after preparing to face a gigantic 185 lb opponent in Costa, Chimaev will now get more eased into the division against a fellow fighter who’s moving up from 170 lb. Chimaev had been training at Allstars Training Center in Sweden, but is now working out of Dubai, making this a home game for him.
Kamaru Usman
18th UFC Fight (15-2)Usman stepped into this fight with just a week and a half to prepare, and will be moving up to 185 lb for the first time in his career. He’s coming off back-to-back title fight losses against Leon Edwards and is now 36 years old, so it remains to be seen how much Usman has left in the tank at this stage in his career and with notoriously bad knees. While his most recent loss to Edwards went the distance, Usman suffered the first knockout loss of his career just before that. Prior to those two losses, Usman had won 19 straight fights, with the last six of his wins coming with the Welterweight belt on the line. Usman originally won the Welterweight belt in 2019 against Tyron Woodley and then defended it five times, with two matches against Colby Covington, two against Jorge Masvidal, and one against Gilbert Burns. Usman’s last 10 fights were all scheduled to go five rounds, and the last time he took part in a three-round bout was in a 2018 wrestling-heavy decision win over Emil Weber Meek. Eleven of Usman’s 17 UFC fights have gone the distance (10-1), with him winning the first 10 of those.
Now 20-3 as a pro, Usman has nine wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and 10 decision victories. His first career loss occurred in a 2013 R1 rear-naked choke in Usman’s second pro fight. He then suffered his only knockout loss in the fifth round against Leon Edwards in 2022, before suffering his only decision loss against Edwards in his last fight. Eighteen of his last 19 fights made it past the first round, with the one exception being a 2017 R1 KO win over Sergio Moraes. Eight of his last 10 fights made it to the fifth round, with six of those going the distance and two ending in fifth round knockouts (1-1). His last 16 fights all either went the distance (10-1) or ended in knockouts (4-1), with three of his last five fights ending in knockouts (2-1). The last time anyone was submitted in one of his fights was in his 2015 UFC debut, where he locked up a second round arm-triangle choke against Hayder Hassan, who went 0-2 in the UFC with two submission losses.
Overall, Usman is winding down a very impressive career, as his body has begun breaking down in recent years. He had hand surgery going into his last fight and apparently his knees are so bad that he struggles to walk on concrete or go down the stairs normally. He also got knocked out for the first time in 2022, and we thought he might call it a career after the second loss to Edwards. However, he’s making one last ditch effort as he moves up a weight class on short notice to try and set up a rematch with Sean Strickland for the Middleweight belt. Looking past his age and recent downward trajectory, Usman has always been an elite wrestler and is a BJJ black belt who has also grown to be more comfortable with his striking as his career has progressed. After landing just three knockdowns in his first 10 UFC fights, Usman’s notched seven in his last seven matches. In his 17 UFC fights, he landed 59 takedowns on 129 attempts (45.7% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on one of their 37 attempts (97.3% defense). Leon Edwards holds the honors for being the only fighter to ever get Usman down. It will be interesting to see how Usman looks on the scale during weigh-ins as he moves up a weight class on short notice.
Fight Prediction:
Chimaev will have a 2” height advantage, while Usman will have a 1” reach advantage. Chimaev is seven years younger than the 36 year-old Usman.
Despite Usman’s recent decline, this is actually a really interesting matchup. Usman holds the all time UFC record for the best takedown defense at 97.3% and only once has Chimaev finished an opponent on the feet in the UFC, which was against a glass-chinned grappler in Gerald Meerschaert. The one time that Chimaev was forced to stand and trade with a high-level opponent was in his close decision win over Gilbert Burns, and Chimaev showed a lot of holes in both his striking offense and defense in that match, as Burns outlanded him 119-108 in significant strikes. Chimaev has just a 41% striking defense and looked very hittable in that fight, while also getting wild with the strikes he was throwing. In addition to his elite takedown defense, Usman has a really solid jab that he works behind and only averages 2.75 SSA/min. Both guys are really good wrestlers, so the potential for either one of them to take the other down is there, but it’s more likely their wrestling will cancel each other out and this will turn into a striking battle. Usman should find success landing his jab, while Chimaev will be throwing more recklessly, looking to land the more impactful blows. With both fighters moving up a weight class, their ability to take a punch should go up, increasing the chances of a longer fight.
The biggest uncertainties in this matchup are centered around trying to predict Usman’s rate of decline and how he’ll look up a weight class on short notice. While Chimaev is also moving up in weight, he had over a year to grow into the new weight class, while Usman stepped in on 10 days’ notice. There was also some talk about Usman potentially suffering some sort of minor injury during open workouts on Wednesday, but that also could be nothing but noise. So there are multiple red flags on Usman’s side of things, but if can show up looking somewhat like his normal self, he should be able to make this a close fight. The UFC has already said that the winner of this matchup will get the next 185 lb title shot against Strickland, which adds a lot of pressure for a young fighter like Chimaev, while it’s nothing new for Usman. Maybe that results in Chimaev taking a few less chances, but only time will tell. If Usman does get taken down, he’ll likely be in trouble, but if the fight stays standing this could be a lot closer than people are expecting, and will have a good shot at going the distance. With so many unknown factors in play, this fight could go a lot of ways, but we’ll say Chimaev wins a close decision in a fight that plays out mostly on the feet.
Our favorite bet here is “Chimaev/Usman FGTD” at +150.
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DFS Implications:
Chimaev has averaged a blistering 116 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with four of those ending in round one and another 72 seconds into round two. The one time he’s been past the midway point of round two was in his decision win over Gilbert Burns, where Chimaev still scored 101 DraftKings points and 109 points on FanDuel, as he filled up the stat sheet in the victory. However, Chimaev also showed a lot of holes on the feet in that matchup and owns just a 41% striking defense. While he was able to overcome that with sheer output and tenacity against Burns, that will be a concern for him as he continues to climb the rankings, especially as he moves back up to 185 lb and begins facing larger opponents. However, he’s facing a career Welterweight in Usman here and if he wins his next fight will be against a former Welterweight in Sean Strickland, so Chimaev has a little time to clean up his striking defense before he starts facing any monstrous power punchers at 185 lb. With that said, he got out struck by Burns and it’s possible we see that again here. Usman works behind his jab really well, while Chimaev tends to look more for the kill shots. That’s great when it works and makes for highlight reel finishes, but also opens the door for his opponents to out-point their way to victory in fights where Chimaev is unable to land takedowns. And while Usman very well may be on his way out, he still holds the all time UFC record for takedown defense at 97.3%. That doesn’t mean Chimaev can’t take him down, but it certainly lowers the chances. Four of Chimaev’s five UFC finishes came on the ground, and that’s where he’s looked the most dominant. So if Usman’s takedown defense holds up, this fight could look a lot closer than most people are expecting. It’s hard to fully gauge the rate of Usman’s decline or know exactly how he’ll look up a weight class on short notice, but all of those variables add a decent amount of volatility to this matchup and leave us with a wide range of potential scoring outcomes for Chimaev. While he still broke the century mark against Burns in a decision win, that required him landing a knockdown and two takedowns and he likely needs a finish here to return value at his relatively high price tag. Chimaev has always been incredibly popular in DFS, which creates an interesting leverage opportunity in tournaments if you decide to fade him. The odds imply Chimaev has a 72% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Usman has been one of the most consistent DFS scorers around, averaging 139 DraftKings points in his last seven wins, but he’s also been in 10 straight five-round fights, so he’s had extra time to rack up points. He’s now stepping into his first three-round match since 2018 and his scoring expectations should be adjusted accordingly, especially when you consider he’s 36 years old, has lost two straight, and is moving up a weight class on short notice. And while Usman had previously shown the ability to score well in three-round fights through his wrestling, he’s far less likely to find success on the mat in this matchup against a fellow wrestler, who’s larger than Usman and had a full year to adjust to 185 lb and a full camp for this fight. Usman has never competed at 185 lb before and took this fight on just 10 days’ notice and it remains to be seen how he’ll look here. While Usman could look to mix in a takedown attempt or two, no one has been able to get Chimaev down so far in the UFC and Usman will likely be using his wrestling more from a defensive standpoint. That will likely leave Usman reliant on his striking to pull off the upset. There is some reason for optimism there, as Chimaev has just a 41% striking defense and looked pretty hittable in the Burns fight. That was the only time Chimaev has faced even an iota of adversity in the UFC, and the fight ended in a close decision. If Usman finds himself in a similar type of fight, he’ll have a shot at outlanding his way to a decision win, with a slight chance he could knock Chimaev out if he really lands something clean. At Usman’s cheap price tag, he could serve as a value play in win even if he doesn’t put up a huge score, but if we get multiple underdogs winning on the card, it’s also possible he wins a lower scoring decision and fails to crack winning lineups. This is the first time Usman has been an underdog since he fought Tyron Woodley in 2019, but he’s historically been very popular. We’re curious to see where his ownership ends up now, but we expect this fight to be massively owned as a whole. The odds imply Usman has a 28% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Islam Makhachev
15th UFC Fight (13-1)Makhachev had been scheduled for a rematch against Charles Oliveira, but will instead get a rematch against Alexander Volkanovski after Oliveira dropped out a week and a half before the fight.
The last time Makhachev competed was in the February 2023 decision win over Volkanovski, which played out a lot closer than how most people expected going in. While Makhachev was able to land four takedowns in the fight with over seven and a half minutes of control time, Volkanovski was easily able to defend his submission attempts. Both fighters landed some good shots in the striking exchanges, but Volkanovski finished ahead 70-57 in significant strikes and 164-95 in total strikes, while also notching the only official knockdown in the fight. All three judges scored the first two rounds and round four for Makhachev, while also awarding Volkanovski round five. Two of the three judges also scored round three for Volkanovski and it ended up being a 48-47, 48-47, 49-46 win for Makhachev. That was Makhachev’s first Lightweight title defense, after he won the belt against Charles Oliveira with a second round submission in his previous fight. After getting knocked out in the first round of his second UFC fight in 2015, Makhachev rattled off 12 straight wins, and prior to his decision win over Volkanovski, he had landed five straight finishes.
Now 24-1 as a pro, Makhachev has four wins by KO/TKO, 11 submissions, and nine decision victories. All four of his career KO/TKO wins occurred in the first round, although two of those were in his first three pro fights back in 2011 and 11 of his last 13 finishes have come by submission. Five of his last six finishes ended ub submissions, with the one exception being a 2022 first round ground and pound finish over Bobby Green. Of Makhachev’s 11 career submission wins, five came in round one, three ended in round two, two more occurred in round three, and one ended in round four. The only loss of his career occurred in a 2015 R1 TKO in his second UFC fight.
This will be the 5th five-round fight of Makhachev’s career. The first ended in a 2021 fourth round submission win over BJJ black belt Thiago Moises. Makhachev was in no rush to finish the fight, and only attempted one takedown in the first two rounds, which he landed late in round one. Makhachev’s next five-round fight finished in a R1 TKO win over a late replacement in Bobby Green. Next, Makhachev landed a second round submission against Oliveira to claim the Lightweight, before defending it in his recent decision win over Volkanovski. So only twice in his career has Makhachev seen the championship rounds and only once has he been in a fight that lasted longer than 18 minutes. Makhachev faded in the 5th round of that last fight and it will be interesting to see if that’s a learning experience he can grow from or if that will continue to be one of the few flaws in his game. In fairness to Makhachev, that looked like a really tough weight cut for him, which resulted in the whole IV scandal, and may have taken its toll on his cardio in the final round.
Overall, Makhachev is an elite wrestler and former Combat Sambo world champion who doesn’t absorb much damage, as he averages just 1.27 SSA/min, the 7th fewest in UFC history (he held the record before his last fight). In his 14 UFC fights, Makhachev has impressively landed 31 of his 50 takedown attempts (62% accuracy), while he has a 90% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice in his career—once by Thiago Moises and another time by Arman Tsarukyan. Makhachev had been used to having Khabib in his corner, but that was not the case in the first Makhachev/Volkanovski matchup. However, it sounds like Khabib will be back in his corner for this matchup. Considering how tough Makhachev’s last weight cut looked, it will be important to monitor him closely on the scale during weigh-ins.
Alexander Volkanovski
15th UFC Fight (13-1)After suffering his only UFC loss when he faced Makhachev back in February at 155 lb, Volkanovski dropped back down to 145 lb and successfully defended the Featherweight belt in a dominant third round TKO win over Yair Rodriguez just three months ago. Volkanovski then had elbow surgery immediately after the win to fix an injury that he apparently had going into the fight. We expected him to be out longer because of that surgery, but he said he was able to get back into training the first week of September and got back to sparring a couple of weeks after that. In a recent interview, he said he got a good four or five weeks of sparring in leading up to this next fight that he accepted on 11 days notice after Oliveira dropped out. He also said he showed Makhachev too much respect last time and plans to knock him out this go around. Volkanovski also notably just had another baby a month and a half ago, so he’s been busy. Following the win over Yair, Volkanovski made it clear he still wanted another crack at Makhachev, but also said he was fine taking on Ilia Topuria at 145 lb if that’s what the UFC wanted. That fight did get put together for January 2024, before this new opportunity presented itself to rematch Makhachev. However, Volkanovski said he still plans on fighting in January regardless of the fact that he stepped in on short notice here. Volkanovski recent TKO win over Makhachev is only his second finish in his last eight fights, and the only other time he didn’t make it to the judges over that stretch was in a 2022 fourth round TKO over a washed up Chan Sung Jung.
Now 26-2 as a pro, Volkanovski has 13 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and 10 decision victories. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2013 R3 TKO when Volkanovski was fighting up at 170 lb very early in his career, in just his fourth pro fight. His only other loss was the decision to Makhachev. After starting his career at 170 lb, Volkanovski dropped down to 155 lb in 2014 and then all the way down to 145 lb later that same year. He bounced between 145 lb and 155 lb until settling in at 145 lb following his 2016 UFC debut at 155 lb. The only time he’s competed at 155 lb since 2016 was in his loss to Makhachev, and Volkanovski has never lost a fight at 145 lb. All 14 of his UFC fights have made it to the second round, with 11 seeing the third round, and six of his last seven making it to the championship rounds. Nine of his 14 UFC fights went the distance (8-1), while he has three second round TKOs, one in round three, and another in round four.
This will be Volkanovski’s 8th straight title fight, with five of his previous seven ending in decisions (4-1). His other two ended in third and fourth round TKO wins. He also had six fights scheduled to go five rounds prior to joining the UFC, but finished all six of those opponents early, with four first round finishes and two in round four. So overall, he’s 12-1 in five-round fights in his career and 6-1 in the UFC.
Overall, Volkanovski is insanely well-rounded and has no weaknesses in his game. He can strike, he can wrestle, he’s insanely durable, and he has a never ending gas tank. He’s a BJJ black belt and started training in Greco-Roman Wrestling as a kid before switching to rugby for a while before fully committing to MMA. In his 14 UFC fights, Volkanovski has landed 30 of his 79 takedown attempts (37.97% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on just 12 of their 39 attempts (69.2% defense). He’s a tough guy to control on the mat and even when he has been taken down he’s done a great job of returning to his feet or reversing positions. Only Makhachev was able to control him for more than 99 seconds in any of his UFC fights. Volkanovski averages a ridiculous 6.25 SSL/min and just 3.36 SSA/min, and has outlanded all 14 of his UFC opponents in significant strikes. Volkanovski has bounced between 145 lb and 155 lb for his last three fights and will be moving back up to 155 lb here, so it’s worth seeing how he looks on the scale carrying the additional weight, without much time to pack on muscle.
Fight Prediction:
Makhachev will have a 4” height advantage and is four years younger than the 35-year-old Volkanovski, but Volkanovski will have a 1” reach advantage.
There was a lot of talk from Volkanovski going into their last matchup about how he took the time to prepare and bulk up to 155 lb, and Makhachev acknowledged afterwards how impressive of a job Volkanovski had done in his preparation. Obviously Volkanovski won’t have that luxury here as he stepped in on such short notice, however, it looked like he carried a lot of that size back down with him to 145 lb in his last fight and definitely looked a lot bigger there compared to his previous 145 lb fight. That should help with the move back up to 155 lb in this one and Volkanovski actually said he weighed 181 lb when he got the call to step in on short notice. He also said a lot of that was just water weight and was able to easily shed over 10 lb in a couple of days to start the cut down. Volkanovski outperformed expectations in the first fight against Makhachev, but he also had a lot going for him there as he got to fight in front of his home crowd and it didn’t seem like Makhachev was even taking him all that serious. Makhachev was the one traveling, which couldn’t have helped with his weight cut, which looked to be a tough one. Now Volkanovski will be the one traveling into enemy territory, and on very short notice no less. There was a lot of uncertainty coming into that first matchup, as no one knew how Volkanovski would perform at the higher weight class or if Makhachev would simply overpower him. However, that wasn’t the case at all and Volkanovski actually looked like the more powerful fighter. That allowed Volkanovski to remain out of danger on the mat and appeared to wear Makhachev out by the fifth round, where Volkanovski took over. With a little more time, it looked like Volkanovski might have been able to get Makhachev out of there as he rained down ground and pound to finish the match.
Volkanovski said he plans to come in more aggressively and to hunt for the knockout and these two have already felt each other out for 25 minutes. Makhachev is no longer this mythical wrestler and Volkanovski knows he can stay safe on the mat. However, he also doesn’t want to get sloppy and get taken down and controlled for extended periods of time, so he will still have to fight smart. Makhachev will have the crowd behind him and any close rounds will likely go his way, giving him an advantage if this hits the score cards once again. That’s not to say Volkanovski can’t win a decision, but he would have to decisively win three rounds to do so. His more likely path to victory will be to knock Makhachev out and we think he has a decent shot of achieving that. Makhachev has done such a good job of avoiding taking damage throughout his career that his chin really hasn’t been tested all that much and we have seen him knocked out in the past. While Volkanovski hasn’t historically been known for his one-punch knockout power, he bulked up in the last year and looks to have a little more power behind his punches recently. Makhachev has shown he’s prone to going through tough weight cuts, and while this environment should be more favorable to him, he still has to cut the weight. That has the potential to leave him with a more compromised chin, depending on how that process goes. While it won’t be shocking if Makhachev wins another close decision, we actually kind of like Volkanovski to knock him out here.
Our favorite bet here is “Volkanovski KO” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
Makhachev has averaged 110 DraftKings points in his 4 UFC fights that were scheduled to go five rounds, with three of those ending early. However, he scored “just” 94 DraftKings points in his recent five-round decision over Volkanovski, after landing finishes in all of his previous three five-five fights, scoring 107 or more points in each of those. His wrestling-heavy style provides a safer floor on DraftKings than FanFuel and that recent decision win was only good for 78 points on FanDuel. He failed to crack tournament winning lineups on either site in that last fight, although his DraftKings salary has now come down from $9,500 to $8,700. That raises his chances of ending up in winning DraftKings lineups in a decision win, but he needs a finish to be useful on FanDuel. Working in his favor, Volkanovski stepped into this matchup on short notice after Oliveira dropped out, and while the last fight was in Volkanovski’s home country of Australia, Makhachev will have the crowd behind him for this fight. While we often see rematches disappoint, Volkanovski has said he wants to be more aggressive this time around, which has the potential to boost scoring on both sides if he’s forcing the action more. Nevertheless, Volkanovski looks like a really tough matchup for Makhachev and there was never really a point in their last matchup where Makhachev looked especially close to finding a finish. The short notice nature of this matchup does add some volatility and raises Makhachev’s scoring ceiling, but there are still ways he wins a decision and again fails to score enough points to be useful. The odds imply Makhachev has a 67% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Volkanovski will be competing in his eighth straight title fight here (6-1), and second up at 155 lb. In his six 145 lb title fight wins, he averaged a ridiculous 119 DraftKings points, scoring 114 or more points in the last four of those and 133 or more in three of them. We finally saw him look human in the first fight against Makhachev, although even in the loss, he still scored 62 DraftKings points and ended up in the winning lineup at his cheap $6,700 price tag. His price has risen to $7,500 now, which lowers the chances of him being useful in a defeat, but he was far more competitive than expected in that first matchup and showed that he can survive on the mat against Makhachev. However, the circumstances surrounding that first matchup were all in his favor, as everyone was counting him out, including Makhachev, he had his home crowd behind him, seven months to prepare, and Makhachev appeared to have a tough weight cut. Now he’ll be the one traveling into enemy territory, only had 11 days to prepare, and is coming off elbow surgery. Even for a super-human fighter like Volkanovski, that’s a lot of red flags to overcome. He said he plans to be more aggressive here as he hopes to land a knockout and that he gave Makhachev too much respect in the last fight. While that strategy could result in him finding a finish, it could also get him into trouble. While Makhachev was never especially close to finding a finish in the first fight, he did control Volkanovski for periods of time on the mat. If Volkanovski starts aggressively forcing the action, that could result in him getting taken down even quicker if he’s not careful. And while his submission defense has looked impenetrable, if he spends most of the fight with Makhachev on his back, he won’t be able to win or score well. We expect the crowd and judging to both favor Makhachev, leaving Volkanovski more reliant on either landing a knockout or decisively winning three rounds to get his hand raised. The potential for him to get controlled for periods of time lowers his scoring ceiling a good amount, but at his cheap price tag, he doesn’t need to put up a huge score to crack winning lineups. The odds imply Volkanovski has a 33% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
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Trevor Peek OVER 85.5 Pts
