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Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Andre Lima
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Lima was originally scheduled to fight Hyun Sung Park here, but then Park dropped out and Nyamjargal Tumendemberel was announced as the replacement a month out. However, then Tumendemberel dropped out and Raposo was announced as the replacement on May 21st, a week and a half before the fight.
Lima is just 10 weeks removed from a bizarre win in his UFC debut where his opponent was disqualified in the second round for biting him. It was a close fight up until the unfortunate stoppage, but Lima won the first round on two of the three scorecards, despite getting taken down four times and outlanded in the round. Looking at the entire fight, Lima was taken down five times in a round and a half, but showed good scrambling ability to return to his feet and a solid submission defense. Prior to that, Lima won a lackluster decision on DWCS. Lima wasn’t able to showcase his full skillset in that match, as he faced a coward who circled away from him along the outside of the Octagon for the entire fight until Lima was finally able to get his hands on him in round three and take him down. Lima finished the fight ahead 61-25 in significant strikes, while landing his only takedown attempt and stuffing all four of his opponent’s attempts. Just before that, Lima landed a ground and pound finish with the LFA in the final second of round two in a fight where we saw more grappling out of him. He’s still undefeated in MMA, but he did get finished in the third round of a 2023 Muay Thai fight due to a doctor stoppage for a cut.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Lima has five wins by KO/TKO, two decision victories, and one DQ win. Four of his five KO/TKOs ended in under four minutes, with the other coming in round two.
Overall, Lima is a three-time Brazilian kickboxing champion and said he has around 80 kickboxing and Muay Thai fights, even if he only turned pro in MMA in late 2022. He’s been very active lately and he was basically fighting once a month initially and then four times in 2023. He also has all sorts of modified rules fights on his record so he’s definitely not short on combat experience. He’s still only 25 years old, but started training when he was just 10 and never stopped. And despite his background as a striker, he’s also a BJJ black belt and has shown decent wrestling and grappling. He’s pretty defensively sound as well, which results in him not pushing a crazy pace. We’re interested to see how he continues to develop and he seems to have some potential if he keeps putting in the work, but he doesn’t look like a finished product quite yet.
Mitch Raposo
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut, Raposo has been trying to break into the UFC for years. He went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2021, but lost a wrestling-heavy decision in his first fight against Liudvik Sholinian, where Sholinian was able to take him down three times and control him for the second half of the fight on the mat. That fight took place at 135 lb, but Raposo then dropped down to 125 lb when he went on DWCS just six months later, where he was submitted by Jake Hadley in the second round. Raposo then returned to the New England regional scene and rattled off four straight finishes, winning the CES and Cage Titans belts in the process.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Raposo has four KO/TKO wins, three submissions, and two decision victories. While he finished his first three pro opponents in the first round, six of his last seven fights made it to the second round, with four of those seeing round three, but only two going the distance. The only official loss of his career was a second round submission on DWCS in 2021, although he also lost a decision on TUF, but that goes down as an exhibition match. Raposo started his career at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb when he went on DWCS. This will only be his fifth fight at 125 lb (3-1).
Overall, Raposo is a patient striker with good movement and quickness, and was also a former state champion high school wrestler. He recently received his BJJ black belt, although he hasn’t shown us anything to lead us to believe that he’s a great or even a good grappler. He’s often been willing to just stand back up after landing takedowns, opposed to looking to work on the mat. He also looked terrible on the ground on both TUF and DWCS. He’s been facing a lot of dubious competition on the New England regional scene and he still needs to prove he can compete at the UFC level. However, he’s still only 25 years and has looked better in his last few fights than he did on TUF or DWCS, albeit against worse competition.
Fight Prediction:
Lima will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Raposo gets a tough test here in his short notice UFC debut and Lima looks to have him outgunned everywhere. While they’re both 25 years old and Raposo has looked decent on the feet, Lima has a more impressive striking pedigree as a former three-time Brazilian kickboxing champion, who also has a ton of Muay Thai fights under his belt. They’re also both BJJ black belts, allegedly, but we’ve been entirely unimpressed by everything we’ve seen from Raposo on the mat. While Lima is entirely capable of winning a kickboxing match here, the path of least resistance looks to be taking the fight to the ground, where he’ll have a good shot at locking up his first career submission win and finishing Raposo with ground and pound. If the fight stays standing, there’s a good chance it ends in a lower volume decision win for Lima, but we think he’ll take Raposo down and finish him, we’ll say in a second round submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Andre Lima SUB” at +700.
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DFS Implications:
Lima is just 10 weeks removed from a bizarre second round DQ win in his UFC debut where his opponent bit the absolute shit out of him. That resulted in a standing stoppage where Lima only scored 89 DraftKings points. He got taken down five times in a round and a half, which is somewhat concerning, but he did a good job of scrambling on the mat to return to his feet and also landed a takedown of his own. While he’s only 25 years old, he has tons of Muay Thai and kickboxing experience, even if he only turned pro in MMA a year and a half ago. He’s also a BJJ black belt and appears pretty well rounded, so he doesn't look to have many gaping holes in his game. When it comes to DFS, his pace isn’t ideal, but 75% of his pro fights have ended early. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s making his short notice UFC debut, which is encouraging for Lima’s upside. We’ve seen him utilize his ground game in the past and it would make sense for him to lean on it here, as Raposo really struggled on the mat in his TUF and DWCS fights. If he does look to grapple, he’ll have a good shot at finishing Raposo on the mat or putting up a decent DraftKings score even without a finish. However, we don’t see him landing anywhere close to enough striking volume to score well in a decision if the fight remains standing. That leaves him with a wider range of scoring outcomes and it’s hard to fully rely on a guy with a striking background to come in with a grappling-heavy gameplan, but if he’s smart he will. The odds imply Lima has a 71% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Raposo will be making his UFC debut on less than two weeks’ notice, which is always a tough spot to be in. While he has decent striking, he doesn’t land a ton of volume and his wrestling has looked pretty poor. He was submitted on DWCS and also got outwrestled on TUF to lose a decision. Now he’s facing an undefeated three-time Brazilian kickboxing champion who is also a BJJ black belt and it’s hard to see many paths to victory for Raposo outside of stealing a low-volume decision that stays on the feet. We don’t see him finishing Lima or landing enough volume to score well in a decision, so we really don’t have much interest in playing him. The odds imply Raposo has a 29% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Ailin Perez
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off two straight wrestling-heavy decision wins, Perez had five dominant rounds followed by a terrible third round in her last fight, where she nearly got submitted late in the fight against Lucie Pudilova. Perez was able to take Pudilova down in each of the first two rounds and easily control her on the mat, while looking for ground and pound from full mount. However, she failed to and any of her four takedown attempts in round three and instead ended up on her back, before Pudilova nearly completed a late rear-naked choke attempt. Perez still won the fight, but she came incredibly close to blowing it. Prior to that, Perez put on an absolutely dominant performance as she mauled Ashlee Evans-Smith for three rounds on her way to winning a 30-25 decision. Perez took Evans-Smith down 10 times with eleven and half minutes of control time, while finishing ahead in significant strikes 60-12 and in total strikes 127-13. It is worth pointing out that the 36-year-old Evans-Smith hadn’t competed in 32 months before that and was coming off spine surgery, so it was an absolute dream matchup for Perez. Just to that, Perez got submitted in the second round of her UFC debut against a dangerous grappler in Stephanie Egger. That fight notably took place at 145 lb, before Perez dropped back down to 135 lb following the loss. Egger is the only decent grappler that Perez has ever faced, and Perez’s pre-UFC career was basically her bullying low-level opponents with ground and pound. While Perez’s last two fights both went the distance, her previous five all ended early.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Perez has four wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. All five of her finishes ended in the first two rounds, with three of those ending in round one. The first finish of her career ended in a submission, but the last four all came via KO/TKO. Just keep in mind, she has faced a lot of dubious competition throughout her career and only one of her eight pre-UFC wins came against an opponent with a winning record. Other than the submission loss in her UFC debut, her only other defeat came by DQ for illegal knees in a 2021 fight against Tamires Vidal. Perez made her pro debut at 125 lb in 2018, but moved up to 135 lb for her second pro appearance and has bounced between 135 lb and 145 lb since then. However, she now appears settled in at 135 lb.
Overall, Perez is a wrestler who has shown the ability to dominate low-level opponents on the mat and exert heavy top pressure while raining down ground and pound. However, she’s still very green and largely relies on overpowering her opponents with her physicality. While that works on the regional scene and against the bottom of the food chain in the UFC, she’ll need to make a lot of improvements if she ever wants to make any noise in the UFC. She’s definitely not the brightest and we’ve seen her make several terrible decisions in the past, while she also doesn’t have a very diverse skill set. However, when given the right matchup she’s shown the ability to bully opponents on the mat and often end fights early with ground and pound. However, she doesn't appear to offer much in terms of submissions and she’s just a BJJ blue belt. Between her three UFC fights, she landed 13 of her 26 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 2 of their 8 attempts (75% defense). The UFC must like her, as now they’re giving her an opponent who has shown terrible defensive wrestling.
Joselyne Edwards
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Edwards will be looking to bounce back from a close/questionable decision win over Nora Cornolle, where Edwards found a surprising amount of wrestling success. After only landing two total takedowns in her first six UFC appearances, Edwards was able to take Cornolle down five times and finished with almost nine minutes of control time. However, Cornolle finished ahead 40-18 in significant strikes and apparently that was enough to get her hand raised in front of her home crowd. Prior to that, it was Edwards that won a very questionable split decision, where she got taken down twice by Lucie Pudilova and controlled for seven and a half minutes. That was Edwards’ second straight split decision win, and we consistently see her involved in close decisions that often don’t go the way you would expect. All seven of her UFC fights went the distance and she notably got dominated on the mat by Jessica-Rose Clark, who then proceeded to get submitted in three straight fights before being released. Just before that, Karol Rosa had her way with Edwards on the ground, which has been an ongoing trend for Edwards.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Edwards has five wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and five decision victories. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once, and also has four decision losses, including a five-round split-decision loss to a terrible Sarah Alpar in a 2018 LFA Bantamweight title fight. Edwards’ submission game appears limited to looking for armbars off her back, which is how she finished her last two submission wins. All eight of her early wins occurred in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one and two in round two. Three of her five knockouts occurred in under 60 seconds, but none of those were against opponents with winning records. Edwards has competed anywhere from 125 lb to 145 lb, but most of her career has been at 135 lb. Ever since she took a fight at 145 lb in 2022, she’s struggled to make it back down to 135 lb, missing weight in two of her last three fights.
Overall, Edwards is a high-volume striker with a background in boxing. She’ll also look for armbar attempts off her back, and finally showed some offensive wrestling in her last outing. In her seven UFC fights, she landed 7 of her 21 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 13 of their 37 attempts (64.9% defense). All five of the opponents who tried to get her down were successful, with three of them landing multiple of their attempts. Edwards has really struggled with being controlled when she gets taken down, and doesn’t do a good job of getting back up. While she did show some improvements to her ground game in her last fight, it’s hard to know if that had more to do with the fact that she was facing a debuting one-dimensional striker or if her wrestling has actually improved. We should find out here as she takes on a wrestler. Edwards is a habitual weight misser and always someone to monitor closely on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Edwards will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
This sets up as a great stylistic matchup for Perez to find wrestling success and Edwards has consistently struggled with being taken down. Edwards will look for armbars off her back, but as long as Perez can avoid falling into that trap she should be able to find a large amount of wrestling success. Karol Rosa took Edwards down four times and controlled her for over 11 minutes, while Jessica-Rose Clark took Edwards down five times and controlled her for almost 12 minutes. Neither of those two are even really known for their wrestling, while all Perez does is wrestle. We fully expect Perez to get this fight to the ground and control Edwards on the mat, it’s just a question of whether or not she can find a finish or if Edwards goes to her eight straight decision. While it’s possible that Perez can land enough ground strikes to force a TKO stoppage a decision is still more likely.
Our favorite bet here is “Ailin Perez KO or DEC” at -155.
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DFS Implications:
Perez has averaged 113 DraftKings points in her two UFC wins, both of which ended in wrestling-heavy decisions. She went nuclear in the first of those victories, scoring 138 DraftKings points and 116 points on FanDuel on the back of 10 takedowns landed and eleven and a half minutes of control time. She was then on her way to putting up another big score in her most recent victory as she dominated the first two rounds on the ground. However, she fell apart in round three and ended up being the one on her back down down the stretch, nearly even getting submitted. That’s just a reminder how green she is and she’s not someone you can fully trust. However, she gets another great matchup here against Edwards, who has two UFC losses where she was taken down 4+ times and controlled for 11+ minutes. Edwards did show some improvements to her offensive wrestling in her last fight, but she has yet to show us that she has shored up her defense. Edwards will look for armbars off her back, which presents a threat to Perez’s scoring floor, but her ceiling is still really high in this matchup, even without a finish. The odds imply Perez has a 62% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Edwards has averaged 81 DraftKings points in her four UFC wins, all of which went the distance, with the last two being split. She should have lost the last of those after getting controlled on the mat for the majority of the first two rounds, but the Kansas City judges disagreed. Ironically, she followed that up by finding an unusually high amount of wrestling success herself and then being robbed of a decision in her most recent match. She’s only once topped 82 DraftKings points, which was when she took on an absolutely terrible Ramona Pascual and was able to land a career best 164 significant strikes. It’s tougher to see Edwards landing nearly as many strikes in this next fight against an opponent who will be looking to take her down and control her. Edwards did show some improvements to her offensive wrestling in her last fight, but keep in mind that was against a very green one-dimensional striker. We’d be surprised to see Edwards find much wrestling success here and she’ll likely be reliant on securing a finish to score well. She will look for armbars off her back, and while that’s not a recipe for putting up a huge score, at her cheap price tag it could still be enough for her to be useful. The odds imply Edwards has a 38% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Bassil Hafez
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Hafez is 11 months removed from a close split-decision loss in his short notice UFC debut against a really tough Jack Della Maddalena. Hafez pushed a hellacious wrestling pace and gassed out in the back half of the fight after controlling Della Maddalena on the mat for most of the first half of the match. Hafez finished with 20 takedown attempts, but only completed three of them, while finishing with close to seven minutes of control time and a reversal. Della Maddalena took over down the stretch and finished ahead 83-32 in significant strikes and 149-48 in total strikes, while also landing a takedown of his own. Hafez recently said in an interview that he wasn’t in fight shape going into that one following a motorcycle accident a month and a half earlier and had the worst weight cut of his life. In fairness, Della Maddalena had an opponent drop out after weigh-ins in a week prior, so he was also operating under less than ideal circumstances after cutting weight twice in a short span. Following that loss, Hafez had been scheduled to fight Preston Parsons in January, but ended up pulling out due to a knee injury. Just before making his UFC debut, Hafez landed the first knockout win of his career, which came in the third round of a five-round Fury FC Welterweight title fight in a rematch against Evan Cutts. Prior to that, Hafez won a three-round split decision over Anthony Ivy, after losing a five-round split decision to Evan Cutts the first time those two fought. Hafez also notably fought Jeremiah Wells to a draw back in 2017, although how that fight ended in a draw remains a mystery as there were no point deductions or apparent 10-8 rounds. Six of Hafez’s last nine fights went the distance (2-3-1), with five of those six decisions being split (1-3-1). Six of his last seven fights have seen the third round, with the one exception being a 2020 R1 submission win.
Now 8-4-1 as a pro, Hafez has one KO win, four submissions, and three decision victories. All three of his submission wins ended in round one, while his lone knockout came in round three. All four of his losses went the distance, with the last three of those ending in split decisions, and he’s never been finished.
Overall, Hafez is a relentless wrestler and BJJ black, who is also somewhat dangerous on the feet. He had been training at Factory X, but switched to Elevation Fight Team in 2023 and his striking looked improved after making the move. While it’s easy to give him a pass on gassing out in his short notice debut, that’s not the first time we’ve seen him slow down late in a fight and his cardio has consistently been an issue, despite the fact that he trains at elevation. He’s from Philadelphia so he won’t have to travel far for this fight and should have some fan support, although will be going against an opponent from New Jersey in Gall.
Mickey Gall
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Coming off back surgery, it’s been 26 months since Gall last fought and nearly three years since he last won a fight. The last time we saw him compete was in an April 2022 first round knockout loss to Mike Malott, who was making his UFC debut. That came after Gall lost a decision to Alex Morono, who dropped Gall with a jab in the first round, but couldn’t finish him. Prior to that loss, Gall landed a first round submission win against a struggling Jordan Williams, who went 0-3 in the UFC. Gall’s striking looked somewhat improved in that fight, but Williams also looked legitimately terrible so it’s hard to fully gauge if Gall actually looked good or if Williams was just that bad. That came after Gall lost a decision to Mike Perry and Gall is just 1-3 in his last four fights.
Now 7-5 as a pro, Gall has six submission wins and one decision victory. All six of his submissions came by rear-naked choke, including five in round one and one in round two. Four of those notably occurred in his first four pro fights against suspect competition. Only three of Gall’s six career submission wins were against opponents who had ever fought professionally before. Other than those six submissions, his only other career win was a 2019 decision over another questionable talent in Salim Touahri, who went 0-3 in the UFC. Gall has been knocked out twice and lost three of the four decisions he’s been to.
Overall, Gall is a tall grappler who grew up in the UFC and made his debut with the organization in his just second pro fight back in 2016. So he really didn’t have much time to develop before being thrust onto the biggest stage. With that said, his first three opponents had never fought professionally before, which is now crazy to think the UFC was allowing guys to make their pro MMA debuts in the UFC. Despite being a BJJ black belt and submission specialist, Gall’s wrestling has been pretty poor and in his 11 UFC fights he only landed 7 of his 23 takedown attempts (30.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 11 attempts (36.4% defense). Only once in his career did he land more than a single takedown in a fight, which was in 2016 when he took Sage Northcutt down twice. Gall has shown questionable cardio in the past and in that fight against Perry he looked exhausted by the middle of the match and nearly got finished at the end of the second round but Perry simply ran out of time. Gall is just 1-4 in fights that have lasted longer than seven minutes and typically relies on locking up early rear-naked chokes to win. He’s from New Jersey, so he should have the home crowd behind him, although he’s not very likable so who knows. After over two years away it will be important to monitor Gall closely on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Gall will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Both of these two are BJJ black belts with suspect cardio who rely on their grappling to win fights. Hafez looks like the better athlete, the better striker, and the better grappler, but the potential for him to gas out is concerning. However, the same can be said about Gall gassing, and there’s a good chance they both slow down considerably in the back half of the fight. Gall has looked kind of chinny, but Hafez only has one career knockout win and he much prefers to grapple than strike. It will be interesting to see if that strategy changes any against a fellow grappler, but these two actually fought 11 years ago in a grappling match that Hafez won, which could boost his confidence in taking Gall down. And Gall’s defensive wrestling has been poor, as he comes in with just a 36.4% takedown defense. However, neither of them have ever been submitted and we like Hafez’s chances of grinding out a wrestling-heavy decision win on the mat.
Our favorite bet here is “Hafez/Gall FGTD” at +120.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Hafez attempted a ridiculous 20 takedowns in his short notice UFC debut, but only completed three of those and didn’t land many strikes either. He also completely gassed out in the fight and cardio has been an ongoing issue for him. That’s concerning for his floor, but he has a massive wrestling-driven scoring ceiling if he can keep it together for three rounds. And while Gall is also a grappler, he has just a 36% takedown defense and isn’t a very good wrestler. Gall is also coming off back surgery and a 26 month layoff and has the potential to look even worse than in the past, and it’s not like he was ever good. Meanwhile, Hafez had a full camp to prepare for this fight after taking his debut on less than week’s notice and should look better than the last time we saw him. Hafez’s wrestling makes him an especially intriguing play on Draftkings, but the potential to land a huge amount of takedowns or a finish keeps him in play on both sites. He will be traveling into enemy territory, so maybe we see a sketchy decision if the fight is close and they bring in a local judge, but he has everything else going for him here. The odds imply Hafez has a 77% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Gall comes into this matchup littered with red flags. He’s coming off back surgery and a 26 month layoff, is 1-3 in his last four fights, and doesn’t have good cardio. All of his UFC wins were against terrible opponents and he’s never shown the ability to beat anyone decent. He has just a 36% takedown accuracy and is now going against a relentless wrestler who’s also a BJJ black belt. Gall is just 1-4 in fights that have lasted longer than seven minutes and has been almost entirely reliant on locking up rear-naked chokes to win fights, which will be tough to do here. The only two things Gall has going for is that he’s fighting in front of his home crowd and Hafez also has questionable cardio. So if Gall’s gas tank holds up and Hafez’s does not, maybe Gall can either lock up a late submission or do enough in the back half fight to squeak out a greasy decision. Just keep in mind he’s just 1-3 in fights that have gone the distance and we don’t have much confidence in him. The most likely outcome is that he gets dominated on the mat and scores very poorly. The odds imply Gall has a 23% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Jake Matthews
20th UFC Fight (12-7)Continuing to trade wins and losses over his last six fights, Matthews will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss to an undefeated Michael Morales, who outlanded Matthews 84-57 in significant strikes. Each fighter only shot for a single unsuccessful takedown attempt. Prior to that, Matthews landed a second round submission against Darrius Flowers, who was making his short notice UFC debut and then dropped down a weight class for his next fight. That was Matthews’ first submission win since 2018 and he’s been far more content with keeping fights standing in most of his recent matches. That was in full display when he took on a heavy-handed striker in Matthew Semelsberger and refused to lean on his grappling, which resulted in Matthews getting dropped three times and just barely hanging on to lose a decision. And while Matthews landed a submission in his next fight, it only came after his opponent shot for a failed takedown and Matthews ended up in top position, so it wasn’t something that Matthews was actively seeking out. Prior to losing to Semelsberger, Matthews notched a second round knockout against a Jello-brained Andre Fialho, in another fight where Matthews refused to lean on his grappling advantage. That’s Matthews’ only KO/TKO win since a 2015 post R2 doctor stoppage TKO victory. Just before that, Matthews got submitted by Sean Brady in the third round, after winning three straight decisions.
Now 19-7 as a pro, Matthews has five wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and six decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has three decision losses. His lone knockout loss came in the first round of a 2016 fight against Kevin Lee when Matthews was still fighting down at 155 lb. He followed that up with a decision loss, also at 155 lb, before moving back up to 170 lb in 2017 where he started his career and has stayed since. He went 4-3 in the UFC at 155 lb, with all four of those wins coming early. Since moving up to 170 lb, he’s gone 8-4 with five of his eight wins going the distance. Two of his losses at 170 lb ended in third round submissions, with the other two going the distance. Ten of his last 13 fights made it to the third round, with eight ending in decisions. He’s won five of the last seven decisions he’s been to, but did lose his most recent two.
Overall, Matthews is a BJJ black belt and has always been pretty well-rounded, but he made noticeable improvements to his striking in his 13 months away following his loss to Sean Brady. In his 19 UFC fights, Matthews landed 23 of his 57 takedown attempts (40.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 10 of their 27 attempts (62.96% defense). After landing 22 takedowns on 53 attempts in his first 15 UFC fights, Matthews only landed one on just four attempts in his last four matches. And after averaging just 3.03 SSL/min in those first 15 fights, he’s averaged 4.35 SSL/min in his last four matches. So there’s been a clear shift in his focus from grappling to striking that shows up both on tape and in the numbers. Despite already having 19 UFC fights under his belt and joining the organization back in 2014, Matthews is still just 29 years old.
Phil Rowe
6th UFC Fight (3-2)It’s been almost a year since we last saw Rowe in the Octagon, after he lost an uneventful low-volume split decision to Neil Magny. Prior to that, Rowe had landed three straight late-round knockouts against a series of struggling opponents in Niko Price, Jason Witt, and Orion Cosce, after losing a decision to Gabe Green in his 2021 UFC debut. Cosce and Witt both found some success in controlling Rowe early in those fights before getting knocked out late. Rowe then won the first two rounds against Price, before Price nearly finished Rowe in round three, only to have Rowe turn the tables and knock Price out instead. We also saw Rowe nearly get finished in his UFC debut against Gabe Green, who destroyed the legs of Rowe and was also able to get him down twice. A year and a half prior to his debut, Rowe punched his ticket to the UFC when he landed a third round KO win on DWCS. Rowe got knocked down early in that 2019 DWCS match and looked to be in trouble, however, he was able to recover and really turned it on in the second round before finishing things just as the third round started. Rowe’s last seven fights all made it out of the first round, but only three of those required the judges. So he’s consistently been a slow starter, but has found ways to finish opponents later in fights.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Rowe has six wins by KO/TKO and four by submission. He has three first round finishes, five in round two, and two in round three. His last five finishes all occurred in the later rounds. The only time he’s ever been finished himself came in his 2014 pro debut when he was knocked out two minutes into the first round. He’s never been submitted, but he lost all three of the decisions he’s been to. After losing the first two fights of his pro career, Rowe has now won 10 of his last 12 matches. However, one important thing to keep in mind is that Rowe’s pre-UFC wins came against much lower level competition. Rowe has also competed in six grappling matches since joining the UFC and lost all six, getting submitted in three of those.
Overall, Rowe is a tall and long striker who stands 6’3” He can generate good power with a long striking range, however, the trade off is that he has skinnier legs and tends to get them badly chewed up, as we saw in his UFC debut. He’s also been very prone to getting taken down and controlled and between his five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he was taken down 9 times on 22 opponent attempts (59.1% defense). He’s also struggled with being controlled for periods of time, which contributes to why he’s never won a decision. Rowe has a background in basketball, not martial arts, and was a self-described terrible fighter when he first started MMA. However, he trains with high-level grapplers in Jacare Souza and Rodolfo Vieira, and he struggles more with wrestling than his grappling. Rowe also missed weight by 2.5 lb for two of his last four fights, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Rowe will have a 4” height advantage and 7” reach advantage, while Matthews is four years younger than the 33-year-old Rowe.
Matthews is better than Rowe everywhere, but he refuses to fight intelligently and likes to take the past of most resistance. So we can’t count on Matthews looking to wrestle here and he’ll likely be content with duking it out on the feet. Hopefully he’ll at least look to attack Rowe’s skinny legs, opposed to making it a pure boxing match. With that said, even in a boxing match we would still take Matthews. So any other weapons he chooses to utilize will just be a bonus and we’re not sold on Rowe being a legitimate UFC fighter. However, Rowe does have a massive frame and decent power, so Matthews will still need to be careful not to eat too many clean shots. Barring a hail mary knockout, we fully expect Matthews to win the fight, and he’s fully capable of knocking Rowe out, submitting him, or outlanding his way to a decision win. We’ve seen Rowe hurt enough times that we’ll say that finally catches up with him and we like Matthews to put him away in the later rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Jake Matthews ML” at -155.
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DFS Implications:
Matthews has averaged 92 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC wins, but has only reached the century mark once in his last nine wins, which was in a 2018 first round submission that scored 103 points. So he hasn’t shown a huge ceiling, but his floor has been mostly solid, and he scored between 87 and 99 points in each of his last four victories. With that said, he only scored 23 points in his recent decision loss and his refusal to wrestle lately has taken its toll on his scoring potential. Despite the fact that his last win ended in submission, he’s largely abandoned his grappling in recent years and has only landed one takedown in his last five fights combined. That will make it tougher for him to score well without a finish here. While Rowe hasn’t been finished since his 2014 pro debut, we have seen him hurt at multiple points and he also hasn’t been facing the toughest competition. So it still looks like a decent spot for Matthews to get him out of there and at his reasonable price tag he doesn’t need to put up a slate-breaking score to sneak into the optimal lineup. The odds imply Matthews has a 59% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Rowe hasn’t competed in almost a year after losing a boring decision to Neil Magny, but did land three straight knockouts leading up to that loss. Just keep in mind, they came against the corpse of Niko price and a pair of terrible opponents in Jason Witt and Orion Cosce. We can’t push much value in any of those victories and he still needs to prove he can hang with legitimate competition. We often see Rowe get controlled for extended periods of time in fights, which has limited his ability to put up big striking totals, although Matthews has been pretty unwilling to engage in much grappling lately and just wants to throw down on the feet. That’s encouraging for Rowe’s upside, but Matthews has only been knocked out once in 26 pro fights, which was back in 2016 when he was just 21 years old. Rowe only scored 30 and 48 DraftKings points respectively in his two decision losses and has still never gotten his hand raised by the judges in his career. Matthews is also a BJJ black belt and it would be surprising to see Rowe submit him. That likely leaves Rowe reliant on landing a hail mary knockout if he wants to pull off the upset and/or score well in DFS. The odds imply Rowe has a 41% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Grant Dawson
11th UFC Fight (8-1-1)Coming off his first UFC loss and also his first time headlining a UFC card, Dawson got knocked out in just 33 seconds by Bobby Green in a fight that ended before it ever got started. Dawson didn’t even have time to attempt a takedown before it got dropped and there’s not much else we can say. Prior to that, Dawson won a dominant decision over a really tough Damir Ismagulov, who entered the matchup with a solid 75% takedown defense. Dawson was able to take Ismagulov down early in each round and control him on the mat for essentially the entire fight as he finished with 12 and a half minutes of control time. Just before that, Dawson secured a pair of third round submission wins, as he outgrappled a couple of guys known for their grappling in Jared Gordon and former Greco-Roman Olympic Wrestling silver medalist, Mark O. Madsen. Dawson landed two of his six takedown attempts against Madsen and finished with nine and a half minutes of control time before locking up a submission midway through round three. That came after Dawson landed a career best seven takedowns on 17 attempts against Gordon, before landing a submission in the final minute of the fight. Leading up to his recent loss, Dawson went undefeated in his previous 12 fights, and the only time he didn’t come out victorious over that stretch was in a 2021 draw against Ricky Glenn. Following the disappointing result, Dawson made the switch to American Top Team after spending eight years at Glory MMA & Fitness. The move appeared successful, as Dawson became the first fighter to ever submit Jared Gordon in his next match and then handed Mark O. Madsen the first loss of his career. Five of Dawson’s eight UFC wins ended early, but all of those finishes came in the later rounds.
Now 20-2-1 as a pro, Dawson has four wins by KO/TKO, 13 submissions, and three decision victories. Both of his career losses came by first round knockout in 35 seconds or less. Three of his four career knockout wins occurred in round two with the other ending in round three. Six of his last seven finishes were submissions and his only knockout win since 2016 was in the final second of a 2021 match against an aging Leonardo Santos. Of Dawson’s 13 submission wins, seven ended in round one, four came in round two, and his most recent two occurred in round three. Dawson started his career fighting at 155 lb, but dropped down to 145 lb in 2016, where he stayed until 2021 until he moved back up to 155 lb following a couple of tough weight misses.
Overall, Dawson relies heavily on his wrestling and tends to wear on his opponents opposed to finishing fights quickly. He’s a BJJ black belt and is typically looking to lock up rear-naked chokes on the mat, which is how he finished 11 of his 13 career submissions. Between his 10 UFC fights and his DWCS match, Dawson landed 30 takedowns on 83 attempts (36.1% accuracy). On the other side of things, there have only been five takedowns attempted against him, with three of those being successful (40% defense). However, no one has ever gotten him down more than once, and Dawson finished all three of the opponents to land a takedown against him. Dawson has struggled to make weight at various points in his career, so he’s always a guy to monitor on the scale.
Joe Solecki
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Also coming off a quick first round knockout loss, Solecki was finished in an unusual first round knockout via slam by Drakkar Klose on the infamous December 2nd 2023 slate where we saw a pair of back-to-back rare slam knockouts on an Octagon floor that looked like it was made of concrete. As Solecki looked to lock up an armbar early in the first round, Klose slammed him on the mat and his head bounced off the canvas like a golf ball on a cart path, immediately knocking him unconscious and ending the fight in just 101 seconds. Prior to that, Solecki locked up a second round submission win against a low-level opponent in Carl Deaton, who was making his short notice UFC debut. Just before that, Solecki fought to a pair of split decisions (1-1). He was fortunate to get his hand raised in the most recent of those as it looked like the fight was destined to end in a draw after Alex Da Silva was deducted a point in the second round in a fight that Solecki appeared to be losing. One of the judges did score the fight as a draw, but the other two somehow both scored it for Solecki, with one judge giving Solecki a 10-7 second round (after the point deduction) and another scoring round three for him. That came after Solecki lost a split decision to Jared Gordon in October 2021, which snapped a six fight winning streak for Solecki. Solecki got his shot in the UFC with a first round submission win on DWCS in 2019, and then absolutely smothered a washed up Matt Wiman for 15 minutes in his 2019 UFC debut. He followed up the lopsided decision win with a first round submission victory against Austin Hubbard in his next match, before winning a decision over Miller just before losing to Gordon.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Solecki has nine submission wins and four decision victories. Eight of Solecki’s nine early wins ended in the first round, while his most recent submission win ended in round two. He has two knockout losses and two more by decision. The first of his early losses came in a 2018 R3 KO against Nikolas Motta, before they joined the UFC, while the most recent ended in round one.
Overall, Solecki is a BJJ black belt and a dangerous grappler who’s always looking to take the back of his opponents, and he has seven rear-naked choke submission wins on his record. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 14 of his 28 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 1 of their 2 attempts (50% defense). Solecki doesn't offer much in the way of striking, which leaves him reliant on his grappling, and we’ve seen him slow down at times in the third round of fights, making it tougher for him to be effective with his grappling down the stretch and forcing him to strike more. Solecki not too long ago moved from Wilmington to Charlotte to be closer to Gym-O where he trains and now teaches jiu-jitsu. He had been making the four hour drive every week previously but now has his family with him full time and a short commute to train. However, he gets a really tough test here against a fellow grappler.
Fight Prediction:
Dawson will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
It’s always interesting when two high-level grapplers square off, as sometimes we’ll see a grappling stalemate where it ends up turning into a striking battle and other times we get a crazy back and forth wrestling match. Both guys are high-level black belts who have never been submitted, but they’ve each been knocked out twice. While they both have unimpressive striking, they each also have a pretty poor striking defense. So it’s possible that one of them is able to clip the other on the feet and land a rare knockout, or finish the fight with ground and pound on the mat. We see that as being more likely than a submission finish, although the most likely outcome is still for this to go the distance and likely end in a Dawson decision win. With that said, if you’re willing to get weird then betting the fight to end by KO/TKO seems like the move given the very wide odds.
Our favorite bet here is “Dawson/Solecki Fight Ends in KO” at +480.
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DFS Implications:
Dawson has averaged 101 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins and has shown the ability to score well on DraftKings even without a finish, but has been far more reliant on getting opponents out of there early on FanDuel. He scored 90 DraftKings in his last decision win, but that was only good for 61 points on FanDuel. While he scored 89 or more DraftKings points in all eight of his UFC wins and 101 or more in five of those, only once has he topped 107 points. So while he’s consistently demonstrated a really solid floor, as the second most expensive fighter on this card, there are certainly ways he finds a mid round finish and still gets priced out of winning tournament lineups. It’s also a tough matchup for him as he faces a fellow grappler and BJJ black belt and Solecki has never been submitted. However, we’ve seen Dawson succeed in tough matchups in the past, and it’s definitely possible that he just overpowers Solecki and dominates him on the mat for three rounds. However, it would be more surprising to see him submit Solecki, which greatly lowers his appeal on FanDuel. The odds imply Dawson has an 82% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Solecki has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, but his scores have been pretty polarized, as he returned totals of 106, 69, 74, 105, and 119 in those victories. While he was able to score 119 DraftKings points in a smothering decision win in his UFC debut against a washed up Matt Wiman, Solecki only scored 69 and 74 points respectively in his last two decision wins when he faced better grapplers and also lost a grappling-heavy decision to Jared Gordon. Solecki’s third round cardio has looked a little suspect in recent fights, making it tougher for him to dominate legitimate opponents for three full rounds. That leaves him more reliant on locking up submissions to really score well, and now he’s facing a really tough wrestler who’s never been submitted. Solecki’s cheap price tag does leave him with more ways to sneak into tournament winning lineups, but it looks like a really tough matchup for him to find grappling success and there’s real potential for him to get controlled on the mat for extended periods of time. The odds imply Solecki has an 18% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Jailton Almeida
8th UFC Fight (6-1)Looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss, Almeida had a 15-fight winning streak snapped by Curtis Blaydes in a R2 TKO less than three months ago. Almeida dominated the first round, as he took Blaydes down a ridiculous nine times in the opening five minutes, while controlling him for all but 21 seconds of the round. However, all of that wrestling appeared to take its toll on Almeida and as he desperately shot for a takedown early in round two Blaydes was able to stuff the attempt and finish him with hammer fists. Prior to that, Almeida dominated Derrick Lewis on the mat for five rounds in a surprising decision win. Over the course of 25 minutes, Almeida took Lewis down six times on 15 attempts and finished with over 21 minutes of control time and four submission attempts, while also leading in total strikes 120-28. Even if he did slow down late in the fight, Almeida was still able to find wrestling success late in the match. That was the first decision win of Almeida’s career and only the second time he ever required the judges. His previous 14 wins all ended in under eight minutes and he finished four of his first five UFC opponents in the first round. Prior to defeating Lewis, Almeida locked up a first round submission against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, after landing the latest finish of his career in a TKO against a washed up Shamil Abdurakhimov at the 2:56 mark of round two. That came after Almeida landed three straight first round finishes against a series of low-level opponents in his first three UFC appearances. Almeida punched his ticket to the UFC on DWCS in 2021, where he submitted a 9-0 Sambo fighter in the second round.
Now 20-3 as a pro, Almeida has seven wins by KO/TKO, 12 submissions, and one decision victory. All but one of Almeida’s 20 wins have come in under eight minutes, with 14 ending in round one and five finishing in the opening three minutes of round two. Six of his last eight finishes came via submission with five of those six submissions ending in round one. Whether it’s by submission or ground and pound, all of his recent finishes have occurred on the mat. He has two KO/TKO losses and one decision defeat. His first early loss came in a 2017 16 second R1 KO in his fifth pro fight when he was still down at 185 lb, while his other was in the opening minute of the second round at Heavyweight. Almeida has competed anywhere from 185 lb to Heavyweight in his career. He came into the UFC as a Light Heavyweight, but moved up to Heavyweight for his second Octagon appearance, and ended up staying there. At this point he has no reason to resume weight cutting and we’ve seen him go from 203 lb in his UFC debut to 224 lb, 216.5 lb, 232 lb, 231 lb, 236 lb, and most recently 241 lb.
Overall, Almeida comes into every fight with the same game plan of getting things to the mat as quickly and as violently as possible, where he’ll then aggressively hunt for finishes. He’s a BJJ black belt and an absolute powerhouse, but has yet to be forced into a standup battle in the UFC. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Almeida landed 28 of his 47 takedown attempts (59.6% accuracy), while he got taken down once himself (on DWCS) on four opponent attempts (75% defense). The only real adversity that Almeida has faced in his UFC career was when Blaydes was able to survive the first round against him and then stuff a takedown in round two and go to work with hammer fists. Almeida immediately wilted at that point, so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back from that and if it changes his approach any.
Alexandr Romanov
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Romanov is 11 months removed from a decision win over the human tank himself in Blagoy Ivanov. We saw a different version of Romanov than we’re used to in that match, as he was far more patient and willing to engage on the feet. He only landed two takedowns in the fight and none in the opening five minutes. He finished ahead 85-44 in significant strikes and had less than three minutes of control time. His more tentative approach can likely be attributed to the fact that he appeared to gas out a minute into his previous fight after unsuccessfully looking for an immediate takedown. He then just shelled up on the mat and was easily finished by Alexander Volkov in just 136 seconds. That was the first time he had ever been finished, but his second straight loss where he gassed out. Just before that, Romanov suffered his first career loss in a decision against Marcin Tybura. Romanov dominated the first round in that fight, but after landing multiple big energy body slams in the opening five minutes, he gassed out later in the fight and ended up losing a split decision. That loss snapped a 16 fight winning streak and was the first time he had gone the full 15 minutes.
Now 17-2 as a pro, Romanov has six wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and two decision wins—although one of those was a technical decision in a fight that was stopped for a low blow a minute into round three. He has one R1 TKO loss and one decision defeat. Only 5 of his 19 pro fights made it to the third round, while 12 ended in round one, and two ended in round two. However, five of his eight UFC fights have made it past the nine minute mark and two of his last three fights went the full 15 minutes. So as his competition level has risen, so has his fight time. Romanov weighed in at 260 lb or above in his first four UFC fights, but then trimmed all the way down to 236.5 lb against Chase Sherman and 239.5 lb against Marcin Tybura. However, he then ballooned all the way back up to 264 lb for his last two matches.
Overall, Romanov has a freestyle wrestling background and landed 20 takedowns on 37 attempts (54.1% accuracy) in his eight UFC fights, with at least two takedowns landed in seven of those. Meanwhile, the only fighter to try and take him down was Juan Espino, who landed four of his five attempts, so Romanov has shown just a 20% takedown defense, albeit in a limited sample size. Romanov has shown a disturbing pattern of quitting in fights once he starts to get tired and has also struggled when going against other wrestlers. All of his dominant wins have come against low-level opponents with poor grappling and he’s often faded in the back halves of fights when faced with tougher competition that he can’t put away. Now he’ll face one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division.
Fight Prediction:
Almeida will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
There are a lot of similarities between these two, as they’re both grappling bullies with dubious gas tanks. While they’ve both looked great when they can implement their gameplan, neither guy has shown the ability to handle adversity well. The similarities end when it comes to their physiques, as Almeida is built like an oversized action figure, while Romanov is a blob of a man—except for those two fights where he cut 30+ pounds. We’ve yet to see more than a glimpse of Almeida’s striking in the UFC, which does leave a lot of uncertainty with how he’ll fare on the feet if he can’t land takedowns. However, Romanov’s defensive wrestling has been poor so far and he’s been taken down four times on five opponent attempts, all of which were against a talented grappler in Juan Espino. Romanov also struggled in the later rounds against the other wrestler he faced in his loss to Marcin Tybura and overall hasn’t done great when facing fellow grapplers. In fairness, Almeida lost to Blaydes the one time he faced another high-level wrestler/grappler and clearly these two both do their best work when going up against strikers. It will be interesting to see if their wrestling cancels each other out to some extent and turns this into more of a striking battle than most are expecting. Almeida just emptied his gas tank in the first round of his last fight and then got finished in round two, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him dial things back some here. With that said, we’re still expecting him to try and capitalize on Romanov’s poor takedown defense and Romanov has a tendency to give up his back when he’s returning to his feet. That could leave openings for Almeida to snatch up a rear-naked choke and a ground and pound finish is also very possible. The uncertain cardio on both sides makes it a more volatile matchup and if one of them can outlast the other then a finish could come very easily in round two. However, if they both gas out then things could get incredibly sloppy down the stretch and end in a weird decision. Almeida has been the more active fighter and also the more impressive of the two and ultimately we like his chances of finishing Romanov on the ground, but it’s hard to be supremely confident in him given the amount of uncertainty in his cardio and striking.
Our favorite bet here is “Jailton Almeida R2 KO” at +1500.
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DFS Implications:
Almeida recently had a 15-fight winning streak snapped, but not before he landed nine takedowns in the first round. He was well on his way to putting up an earth-shattering score before getting finished in the opening minute of round two. However, he was definitely fading and was operating at an unsustainable pace, so it will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes moving forward. The potential for him to dial things back is very much in play, but it’s also possible he makes no changes and continues to operate at his normal blistering pace. That leaves him with a wide range of scoring outcomes, but his ceiling is undeniable. He’s averaged 120 points in his six UFC wins, scoring 104 or more in all of those and at least 114 in five of them. He’s shown the explosiveness and power to compete at both Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight, but he continues to put on weight and it doesn't look like he plans on moving back down any time soon. To this point, he’s come into every fight with the exact same game plan of immediately landing a takedown and hunting for a finish. And while he’s facing a fellow wrestler here, Romanov has just a 20% takedown defense, albeit in a very limited sample size. We’ve seen Romanov quit before and if Almeida can get him down and beat him up on the mat, it’s entirely possible that Romanov just shells up and calls it a day. However, he is also a BJJ black belt and if he shows up motivated it could be tougher to get him out of there. Almeida also has cardio concerns and hasn’t shown much in the way of striking, so there are lots of ways this can go wrong for him if can’t find grappling success. When you factor in everything, this is a pretty volatile matchup that could end in a lot of ways, but there’s no question that both guys will be popular. The odds imply Almeida has a 74% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Romanov has averaged 121 DraftKings points in his four early wins in the UFC, but has yet to show he can score well in a decision. He won a technical decision over Juan Espino that was stopped a minute into round three for a low blow and only scored 67 DraftKings points in the shortened fight. Then he scored just 51 points in a decision loss to Marcin Tybura, before scoring only 83 points in his recent decision win over Blagoy Ivanov. So while his wrestling theoretically could allow him to score well on DraftKings without a finish, he lacks the cardio to wrestle competitively for three straight rounds and is also now going against a very high-level grappler. That will make it interesting to see what his game plan is, but he was more content with keeping his last fight standing in a slower paced striking battle. That’s not a recipe for scoring success, and we also expect Almeida to be looking to take Romanov down, which leaves him with a non-existent floor. He only has a 20% takedown defense and is a much better hammer than a nail. Neither of these two have good cardio, so either guy could gas out and get finished by the other, but this looks like a tough stylistic matchup for Romanov and he’s struggled in the past against fellow wrestlers/grapplers. We project him to be higher owned than his chances of landing the finish he needs to score well, which makes it hard to get excited about playing him. However, if he can outlast Almeida, then he’ll still have a shot at finding a finish and putting up a big score. The odds imply Romanov has a 26% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Roman Kopylov
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Kopylov recently had a four-fight winning streak snapped in a second round submission loss against Anthony Hernandez, which took place in mid February. Hernandez only landed 3 of his 14 takedown attempts, but when he was finally able to take Kopylov’s back in the second round he was able to work his way to a rear-naked choke. Prior to that, Kopylov had landed four straight late-round knockouts and seemed to be improving every time he stepped inside the Octagon, after starting 0-2 in the UFC. He was embarrassingly submitted in the third round of his 2019 UFC debut against Karl Roberson and then nearly submitted in the second round of his next fight against Albert Duraev, where he survived to lose a decision. However, he bounced back with a third round knockout win over Alessio Di Chirico, followed by three straight second round knockout victories against Punahele Soriano, Claudio Ribeiro, and Josh Fremd. Kopylov clearly benefited from favorable matching over his winning streak, as all of those opponents are primarily strikers, although they all did try and fail to take Kopylov down on 13 combined attempts. Kopylov struggled with inactivity early in his UFC career and there was nearly a two year gap between his debut and his second UFC appearance, and then almost another full year before his third UFC match. However, he’s been very active lately.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Kopylov has 11 wins by KO/TKO and one decision victory, which came in his 2016 pro debut. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice and has one decision defeat. Only one of his 11 knockout wins occurred in the first round, while five came in round two, three ended in round three, and two occurred in round four. While 14 of his last 15 fights ended early, his last nine fights all made it out of the first round, with five of those seeing round three, but only one going the distance.
Overall, Kopylov is a crisp and powerful one-dimensional striker who has shown consistent improvements throughout his UFC career. He throws lightning fast kicks and he’s incredibly dangerous on the feet. His striking defense hasn’t been overly impressive and he averages 4.10 SSA/min. He also doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling, with just two takedowns landed on four attempts (50% accuracy) in his seven UFC fights, but his opponents only got him down on 5 of their 39 attempts (87.2% defense). However, when he has been taken down he’s looked absolutely terrible on the mat, which has been a glaring weakness. This will be a good test for him on the feet against another high-level striker.
Cesar Almeida
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Almeida is just eight weeks removed from a second round TKO win in his UFC debut against a one-dimensional wrestler in Dylan Budka, who was also making his debut. Budka did nothing but try to take Almeida down and hold him against the cage, but Almeida did a good job of staying patient, returning to his feet, and constantly looking to land shots. He finally put Budka down in the second round with a series of borderline downward elbows in the second round and quickly forced a stoppage on the mat. Prior to that, Almeida won a decision on DWCS against another opponent who came in looking to take him down. Once again, Almeida showed the ability to hang on the mat, despite having very limited MMA experience and a kickboxing background. Before going on DWCS, Almeida’s first three pro MMA fights all ended in first round knockout wins and he’s only been in one MMA fight that made it past the midway point of round two.
Now 5-0 as a pro, Almeida has three first round KO/TKO wins, another in round two, and one decision victory. Two of his knockouts came in 68 seconds or less, with one ending in a single punch.
Overall, Almeida is a credentialed kickboxer who only has five pro MMA fights and one of those was all the way back in 2016. He didn’t make his second MMA appearance until 2021, but he fought twice that year, before returning to kickboxing in 2022, and then going on DWCS in 2023. Almeida was 47-8 in kickboxing, where he won a world championship, and also notably went the distance with Alex Pereira three times (1-2). Almeida is now 36 years old and trains in Las Vegas at Xtreme Couture so he has lots of good training partners around him, but he still has very limited MMA experience. He relies on his striking, where he’s looked very dangerous and dense, with heavy hands and good quickness. We still expect him to struggle when facing high-level wrestlers, but the UFC is helping him out by giving him a pure striker in this next fight.
Fight Prediction:
Almeida is listed as having a 1” height advantage, while Kopylov has a 1” reach advantage and is three years younger than the 36-year-old Almeida.
This sets up as an exciting striking battle between two dangerous fighters. Kopylov swings his legs like they’re baseball bats and Almeida had a lengthy kickboxing career where he notably went the distance with Alex Pereira three times (1-2). However, Almeida is still very new to MMA, which makes it harder to gauge just how dangerous he is with four ounce gloves on. It’s definitely on the spectrum of very to extremely, but whether or not he can look like the next Alex Pereira remains to be seen. Neither of his last two opponents wanted to engage on the feet with him, after he finished three lower level opponents on the Brazilian regional scene. What we do know is that most of his recent kickboxing matches went the distance and neither he nor Kopylov have ever been knocked out. This fight will also take place in the larger 30 ft Octagon, leaving more room to evade. So while four of Almeida’s five MMA fights have ended in knockout wins and Kopylov’s last 11 victories all ended by knockout, there’s still a decent chance this one makes it to the scorecards. However, if it does end early, we lean towards it coming from an Almeida knockout win, just based on what we’ve seen from Kopylov from a defensive perspective. However, there are still a lot of questions to be answered with Almeida, which makes this a more volatile matchup that could go either way, as the odds suggest. However, forced to choose, we’ll take Almeida.
Our favorite bet here is “Kopylov/Almeia FGTD” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Kopylov is coming off his first loss in his last five fights and had knocked out four straight opponents before recently getting submitted in a nightmare matchup against a relentless grappler in Anthony Hernandez. Kopylov was also submitted in his 2019 UFC debut and his biggest weakness is his ground game. Fortunately for him, he’s going against a fellow striker here and we’re not expecting to see much grappling in this fight. However, Almeida is a very experienced kickboxer who’s never been knocked out and this is still a really tough matchup for Kopylov. While Kopylov averaged 96 DraftKings points in his four UFC finishes, he hasn’t shown the ability to land enough striking volume to score well in a decision, as he averages 4.66 SSL/min. That leaves him as a pretty straightforward KO or bust option and he’ll need to become the first fighter to ever finish Almeida to score well. The odds imply Kopylov has a 48% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Almeida is a dangerous striker who’s still relatively new to MMA, but has over 50 kickboxing matches. He went the distance three times with Alex Pereira, and while he lost two of those, that does speak to his durability. He also showed decent defensive wrestling on DWCS and in his recent UFC debut, where he landed a second round knockout against a one-dimensional wrestler. While each of his last two opponents were looking to take him down, we expect Kopylov to be willing to engage in a striking battle here and we should get to see just how good Almeida is on the feet. While there’s plenty of kickboxing tape on Almeida, his first three MMA fights all ended quickly in round one against low-level opponents and his last two played out more in the clinch and on the mat, so it’s hard to know just how dangerous he is with four ounce gloves on. Kopylov’s striking defense hasn’t looked all that good and he averages 4.10 SSA/min, so Almeida should have a decent shot at becoming the first fighter to ever knock him out. However, both guys will be reliant on landing a finish to score well and we don’t see Almeida putting up a big score in a decision. The odds imply Almeida has a 52% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Randy Brown
18th UFC Fight (12-5)Fresh off his first knockout win since 2019, Brown made short work of a 39-year-old Muslim Salikhov, who is just 1-3 in his last four fights. The fight barely made it past the midway point of the first round before Brown ended things with a big right hand. That’s Brown’s only knockout victory in his last nine fights and his previous four wins all went the distance. But to Brown’s credit, he’s won six of his last seven fights, with the one exception being a 2023 first round submission loss to Jack Della Maddalena. In between his recent win over Salikhov and his loss to Della Maddalena, Brown won a low-volume decision over a fragile grappler in Wellington Turman, who’s now just 2-5 in his last seven fights, with three of those losses ending early. Brown spent way too much time in the clinch with Turman and failed to capitalize on Turman’s suspect chin. And before losing to Della Maddalena, Brown had won four straight fights. Brown’s second most recent finish was a 2021 first round submission against a struggling Alex Oliveira, who was in the midst of a five-fight skid.
Now 18-5 as a pro, Brown has seven wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and six decisions. Five of his seven knockout wins came in the later rounds, including four in round two. Three of his five submission wins also occurred in the later rounds, with two ending in round two. He’s also been knocked out twice himself, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. While his last loss ended in round one, his three previous early losses occurred in the second round and amazingly 9 of his 23 pro fights have ended in round two (6-3). Only three of his last 17 fights were stopped in the first round, although those were also his last three fights to end early.
Overall, Brown is a BJJ brown belt and a well-rounded fighter who can compete both on the feet and the mat. He landed nine takedowns in his 17 UFC fights, but has never landed more than two in a match. Because Brown is so tall and heavy on his lead leg, he’s vulnerable to leg strikes as he has a wider stance and skinny legs. We saw Luque chew up Brown’s legs with 26 leg strikes before eventually finishing him late in round two of a 2020 match and Belal Muhammad landed 43 on his way to winning a decision over Brown back in 2017. And even in Brown’s second most recent win, Wellington Turman landed 26 leg strikes. Brown lives in New York and trains in Philly, so he won’t have to travel far for this card.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
15th UFC Fight (10-3-1)Dos Santos is coming off a rare draw where he nearly got finished in the opening seconds of the fight against Rinat Fakhretdinov, but was narrowly able to hang on and survive. Fakhretdinov strangely decided not to lean on his wrestling for the first time in his career, but still won the first two rounds. However, Dos Santos put him down with a body kick in round three and then nearly finished him. However, Fakhretdinov survived on the mat to see the judges, who awarded Dos Santos a 10-8 third round but didn’t give Fakhretdinov a 10-8 first round, which resulted in the draw. Prior to that, Dos Santos won a low-volume, split-decision over Abubakar Nurmagomedov, after serving a year-long suspension due to a failed drug test. Leading up to that suspension, Dos Santos won a violent decision over Benoit St. Denis in a controversial fight that should have been stopped early as Benoit St. Denis took a hellacious beating. That was Benoit St. Denis’ UFC debut and he was fighting up a weight class. That came after Dos Santos lost a split decision to Muslim Salikhov, after winning a decision over Alexey Kunchenko. While his last five fights all went the distance, his four before that all ended early (3-1), including a R1 KO win over Sean Strickland. Dos Santos then knocked out an undersized debuting fighter in Luigi Vendramini, before submitting Curtis Millender in the first round, and then suffering a 2019 R3 TKO loss to Li Jingliang, which is the only time Dos Santos has been finished in the UFC. Dos Santos lost a split decision in his 2015 UFC debut against Nicolas Dalby, but bounced back with seven straight wins before getting finished by Jingliang. Of Dos Santos’ 14 UFC fights, 11 made it to the third round, with nine going the distance.
Now 24-7-1 as a pro, 14 of Dos Santos’ wins ended in KO/TKOs, three came by submission, and seven ended in decisions. He’s been knocked out once and submitted twice, while he also has four decision defeats. All three of his submission wins came by rear-naked choke (R2 2012, R2 2014 & R1 2019), while both of his submission losses also came by rear-naked choke in the second round (2012 & 2013). However, the last time one of his fights ended early was in 2019.
Overall, Dos Santos is a BJJ black belt who utilizes a flashy Capoeira style of fighting that includes spinning kicks and unorthodox attacks that can catch his opponents by surprise. However, he generally doesn’t land a ton of striking volume or takedowns. In his 14 UFC fights, Dos Santos landed just five of his 36 takedown attempts (13.9% accuracy). While he attempted at least one takedown in 13 of his 14 fights, he never landed more than two in a fight, a number he only reached once. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down by his opponents on 21 of their 67 attempts (68.7% defense). After getting taken down 14 times in his first three UFC fights, he’s only been taken down seven times in his last 11 matches.
Fight Prediction:
Brown will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being four years younger than the 37-year-old Dos Santos.
This is sort of an interesting matchup between two well-rounded fights, but there have been signs of Dos Santos slowing down at 37 years old. He nearly got finished in the opening seconds of his last fight and the last time he really looked impressive was in 2021, before he got suspended for PEDs and when he was facing an opponent making his UFC debut up a weight class. So the cliff could come at any moment for Dos Santos, which makes it impossible to trust him. However, Brown is also a tough guy to trust, despite his recent success. Most of Brown’s recent wins came against struggling and/or aging opponents and we don’t really trust his durability. It would make sense for Dos Santos to attack the legs of Brown, which will effectively take away his jab if he can’t put weight on his lead leg. That would give Dos Santos a real chance of pulling off the upset, but if he doesn’t go that route we could just see Brown pick him apart with his jab for 15 minutes. We’re not sold on Brown suddenly being a prolific finisher, but both guys have shown some durability concerns and either of them could finish the other, making this a more volatile matchup. With that said, we’ll be picking Brown to win by decision and just hoping they can both survive for three rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Randy Brown DEC” at +180.
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DFS Implications:
Brown has averaged just 83 DraftKings in his 12 UFC wins, topping 96 points just three times in his career. While he’s coming off a first round knockout win that was good for 105 DraftKings points, his previous four victories all went the distance, where he consistently scored between 70 and 77 DraftKings points. The only other two times he topped 96 points were in a 2021 first round submission over a washed up Alex Oliveira and a 2016 second round submission over a random opponent who went 0-3 in the UFC. Brown failed to top 77 points in any of his six UFC decision wins and also has three finishes that scored just 60, 96, and 90 points. Only once has he ever landed more than a single takedown in a fight, which was when he landed two against Wellington Turman. He also averages just 4.37 SSL/min and rarely puts up big striking totals. Even when given favorable matchups to find a finish, Brown rarely capitalizes, and it’s impossible to trust him. However, he is facing another aging veteran here who almost got immediately knocked out in his last fight. And at Brown’s mid range price tag, he may not need to put up a massive score to end up in winning lineups, but he will need a finish. The odds imply Brown has a 63% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Dos Santos has averaged just 79 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins, with six of those going the distance. Only once in his career did he score more than 86 points in a fight that made it out of the first round, which was when he nearly beat Benoit St. Denis to death in a crazy high-volume decision and scored 97 points. Dos Santos failed to top 72 DraftKings points in any of his other five decision wins and notably scored just 49 points in his most recent decision victory. While that would normally result in us labeling him a R1 KO or bust option, on this slate where we’re not expecting many underdog winners it’s always possible he could serve as a value play even in an average scoring win. However, if more underdogs win than expected, then he’ll need a well timed finish to crack tournament winning lineups. Working in his favor, Brown has been finished in four of his five career losses and comes in with some durability concerns. The odds imply Dos Santos has a 37% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Alex Morono
21st UFC Fight (13-6, NC)Making a quick turnaround, Morono won a decision over a 39-year-old Court McGee just eight weeks ago and then accepted this matchup just a week and a half later after Jeremiah Wells dropped out. McGee was coming off neck surgery, a year long layoff, and back-to-back first round knockout losses, but Morono was unable to get him out of there and actually finished behind 60-38 in significant strikes. However, Morono was landing the more impactful blows and also had a submission attempt, as he won a unanimous 29-28 decision. Prior to that, Morono lost a decision to Joaquin Buckley, who finished ahead in both the striking and the wrestling, winning every round of the fight. Morono was never able to get much going in the fight and finished behind in significant strikes 40-68 and in takedowns 1-2. That came after Morono locked up a second round submission against Tim Means, although Morono did lose the first round on all three scorecards in that fight. Just before that, Morono stepped into a 180 lb Catchweight fight on short notice against Santiago Ponzinibbio and was winning until he got knocked out in the third round. Morono won four straight fights leading up to that loss, with the last three of those wins all going the distance, after he landed a first round knockout against a washed up Donald Cerrone back in 2021, which is the only time Morono has knocked anybody out in his last 12 fights and only his second in 20 Octagon appearances. He also has two submission wins in the UFC, both by guillotine. Three of his four UFC finishes ended in round one, with the other coming early in round two. He’s gone 9-4 in 13 UFC decisions, and was also knocked out three times with the organization, although one of those was overturned to a No Contest when Nico Price tested positive for THC, the first time these two fought back in 2017.
Now 24-9 as a pro, Morono has six wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, 10 decision wins, and one DQ victory (when his opponent bit him). Three of Morono’s six submission wins were R1 armbars very early in his career, while his last three all came via guillotine. Morono has never been submitted, but he’s officially been knocked out three times. In reality, he’s been knocked out four times, but one of those was overturned to a No Contest when Niko Price later tested positive for THC. Morono also has six decision losses. Morono is definitely more focused on looking for knockouts at this stage in his career and he’s constantly confirming that by saying, “Knockouts are gold, submissions are silver and decisions are bronze.” So while he’s a 2nd degree BJJ black belt, he’s also a black belt in Taekwondo and clearly prioritizes finishing fights on the feet. However, he only has two knockout wins since he joined the UFC in 2016, so he hasn’t been especially effective at achieving his goals. His fights generally either end very quickly or go the distance and 11 of his 13 career finishes occurred in the first round as did two of his three official KO losses.
Overall, Morono is a well rounded fighter but chooses to rely mostly on his striking. He’s only landed five takedowns on 22 attempts (22.7%) in his 20 UFC fights, with three of those takedowns coming against Rhys McKee. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 18 of their 40 attempts (55% defense). He likes to look for guillotines, which doesn’t help with his takedown defense, but his defensive wrestling has not been great. He’s put up decent striking totals at times, averaging 4.87 SSL/min and 4.16 SSA/min, but we’ve also seen him involved in much lower volume affairs and he failed to top 40 significant strikes landed in any of his last four fights. Morono has talked about how he’s looking for finishes when they present themselves, but won’t go crazy trying to get opponents out of there. That lines up with the tape, and we’ve seen him hurt opponents at multiple points and not pounce on the opportunity to finish those fights. That has resulted in him only finding two finishes in his last 12 fights, however, to Morono’s credit he’s won seven of the last nine decisions he’s been to.
Niko Price
17th UFC Fight (7-7, 2 NC)Price was originally scheduled to face Jeremiah Wells here, before Wells dropped out and Morono stepped in about a month and a half out with plenty of time to prepare. It’s been 11 months since we last saw Price compete, when he got knocked out in just 38 seconds by half retired Robbie Lawler in a head-scratching stunt. Price actually competed in a grappling match after that loss and was submitted in the first round by Pat Sabaitini, who competes at 145 lb in the UFC, compared to Price who fights at 170 lb. Prior to losing to Lawler, Price suffered a R3 TKO loss against Phil Rowe. Price nearly landed a finish of his own in the third round, but appeared to punch himself out going for it and then Rowe turned the tables on him and forced a standing TKO stoppage. Price was notably coming off knee surgery for that fight and hadn’t competed in 14 months. He didn’t look great in the match and lost the first two rounds on all three judges’ scorecards, despite finishing ahead 110-63 in significant strikes and 150-64 in total strikes. After Price’s first 11 UFC fights all ended early, three of his last five went the distance (1-1, NC) and five of his last six fights made it to the third round, with two of those ending in R3 TKO losses. The last time Price finished anybody was in a 2019 R1 knockout of James Vick, who was in the midst of a five fight skid (four by KO), got cut following the loss to Price, and retired after one more KO defeat outside of the organization. Price’s only win since that 2019 knockout was a close 2021 decision victory over Alex Oliveira, who was also in the midst of a five fight losing streak. Prior to that, Price lost a decision to Michel Pereira, after fighting a washed up Donald Cerrone to a draw in 2020, where Price would have won but lost a point for multiple eye pokes. The result was then overturned to a No Contest when Price tested positive for THC.
Now 15-7 as a pro (plus two No Contests), Price has 10 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and just two decision victories. Eight of his knockouts came in round one, with the other two ending in round two. He also had a 2017 R2 KO win over Morono that was overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC. All three of his submission wins also occurred in the first two rounds, with two ending in round one. He’s been knocked out five times himself, submitted once, and has one decision loss. He also had a draw that was overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC (again). While he’s only been to four decisions in 24 pro fights, three of those came in his last five outings.
Overall, Price has historically been a high paced brawler who averages 5.46 SSL/min and 5.60 SSA/min. While he landed 110 or more significant strikes in three of his last six fights, the last two decisions he fought to weren’t as high-volume, with Price failing to top 76 significant strikes landed in either of those. Part of that can be explained by the fact that we saw a little more grappling in those fights, but Price is clearly slowing down at this stage in his career and the wheels may be all the way off at this point. His fighting style isn’t exactly conducive to a long career and despite only being 34 years old his body appears shot. In his last 10 fights, he only landed 2 of his 16 takedown attempts (12.5% accuracy), failing to land more than a single takedown in any of those fights. On the other side of things, his last 10 opponents got him down on 8 of their 20 attempts (60% defense). Looking at his entire UFC career, he has just a 20% takedown accuracy and a 64% defense. While he is a BJJ brown belt, he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and is generally looking to knock opponents out.
Fight Prediction:
Price will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
This is a rematch of a 2017 fight that Price won by knockout as the second round ended. Morono was winning the fight up to that point before he got caught just as the second round ended and finished ahead 45-23 in significant strikes. Perhaps we’ll see a little more measured version of him here and he’s talked about how you have to be careful with Price as he can catch you with something from just about any position. Morono is a journeyman fighter who loves to “test” himself against washed up opponents and Price certainly fits the bill. Nothing Morono does is especially impressive, but Price is essentially a puddle of goo at this point in his career and needs to hang it up while he still has his motor functions. The only problem is that he has 47 kids to support and probably isn’t smart enough to run the cash register at Wendy’s. All disrespect aside, you have to feel for the guy as he’s put on some fun performances in the past, but it’s impossible to trust him to even survive at this stage in his career, let alone win a fight. However, it’s also hard to have any confidence in Morono’s ability to knock anyone out, as he only has two KO/TKO wins in 20 Octagon appearances. He does love jumping guillotines and Price has been looking to wrestle a little more lately, so there’s a decent shot he can finish Price that way. However, anytime Morono fights there’s a good chance the fight goes the distance, regardless of who he’s fighting. That makes it tougher to predict the exact method he wins by, but however he gets it done we like Morono to get his hand raised here.
Our favorite bet here is “Alex Morono SUB” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Morono has averaged just 83 DraftKings points in his 13 UFC wins, only hitting the century mark in four of those. Nine of his 13 UFC wins went the distance and he only averaged 76 points in those decisions, with just one score above 79, which was an outlier performance where he scored 126 points in a career performance against Rhys McKee. He pathetically scored just 46 points in his recent decision win over a washed up Court McGee and at Morono’s high salary it appears safe to say he’ll need a finish to return a useful score in DFS. And because he likes going for guillotines so much, it’s very possible he submits Price and still fails to score well. He only scored 85 points in his last guillotine finish, after scoring 103 points in his prior guillotine victory, which came in the first round and included a knockdown. Even with a similar score here he could still get priced out of tournament winning lineups, which leaves him with a more narrow path to usefulness. Working in his favor, Price is completely shot at this point and just got knocked out in 38 seconds by a half-retired washed up Robbie Lawler. So maybe Price will just immediately melt here once again, but it’s hard to count on that. This is notably a rematch of a 2017 fight where Morono was winning before he got clipped in the final second of round two and knocked out as the horn sounded, so he could come in a little more cautiously, which would be a disaster for DFS. That leaves him with a wide range of scoring outcomes, but it is a favorable matchup for a potential ceiling performance just based on where Price is at this stage of his career. The odds imply Morono has a 68% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Price has averaged 101 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, with the first six of those coming early. However, his only win since 2019 ended in a close 2021 decision over an opponent in Alex Oliveira who was also struggling and in the midst of a five-fight losing streak. Price only scored 78 DraftKings points in that decision win and has yet to show the ability to score well with the judges. While Price did knock Morono out in 2017 when these two first squared off, that was a lifetime ago and Price has gone off a cliff since then. He was also losing that fight up until the finish. Price is now just 1-3 in his last four fights and also got submitted in a recent grappling match by an opponent who competes two weight classes below him in the UFC. It seems safe to call Price a hail mary KO or bust option, but Morono has been kind of chinny at times. The odds imply Price has a 32% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Kevin Holland
22nd UFC Fight (12-8, NC)This fight was only added to the card three weeks ago and Holland will be moving back up to 185 lb for the first time since 2021. He lost his last three fights at 185 lb, although one of those was overturned to a No Content due to clash of heads that began the finishing sequence against Kyle Daukaus. All three of those losses were against grapplers, and just before facing Daukas, Holland lost a pair of five-round decisions to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson. Holland then dropped down to 170 lb in 2022 and notched back-to-back second round finishes. Both of these were against old veterans in Alex Oliveira, who was in the midst of a five fight skid and got cut following the loss, and Tim Means, who was kicking off a three fight skid and has now lost four of his last five. Holland then faced Khamzat Chimaev on a day’s notice at a 180 lb Catchweight and got submitted in the first round, before suffering the first KO/TKO loss of his career in a post R4 corner stoppage against Stephen Thompson. Holland then bounced back with a third round knockout against another old veteran in Santiago Ponzinibbio, who’s lost three of his last four fights. He followed that up with a first round submission win against a washed up Michael Chiesa, who’s lost three straight and looked absolutely terrible in the fight and tapped as soon as Holland locked up a Brabo choke on the mat. However, Holland then lost a close split-decision to Jack Della Maddalena, where Holland actually finished ahead in striking 127-105 in the pure standup battle. Holland did attempt two takedowns, but failed to land either of them. And then most recently, Holland lost a low-volume decision to Michael Page, who Holland took down twice on five attempts.
Now 25-11 as a pro, Holland has 14 wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and four decision victories. Of his 14 knockout wins, eight came in round one, two ended in round two, and four occurred in round three. He has one TKO loss, three submission defeats, and seven decision losses. He would have four submission losses on his record, but a 2021 R1 submission loss to Kyle Daukaus was ruled a No Contest after an accidental clash of heads began the finishing sequence. Holland started at 170 lb when he turned pro in 2014, but would take fights anywhere from 170 lb to 195 lb. He began settling in at 185 lb in 2016, although did drop back down to 170 lb for a decision loss in 2017. However, after starting 8-4 plus a No Contest in the UFC at 185 lb, Holland dropped back down 170 lb in early 2022. He’s since gone 4-4, but one of those losses was at a 180 Catchweight against Chimaev, so Holland is 4-3 in the UFC at 170 lb. While six of his eight fights since dropping down to 170 lb ended early, only two of those ended in round one. Now he’ll be moving back up to 185 lb for this next fight that was put together on shorter notice.
Overall, Holland is a second degree black belt in Kung Fu and primarily a striker, but is also a BJJ black belt and does have some submission skills, even if he’s not a good wrestler. He’s rangy, powerful, and dangerous on the feet, in addition to being very durable. His defensive wrestling has clearly been his biggest weakness in the past, but the UFC has been far more merciful with the matchups they’ve given him recently, as he’s mostly been facing strikers since moving down to 170 lb. The one exception was when Holland took on Chimaev on short notice and got smoked in 133 seconds. Most of Holland’s UFC losses came on the mat, but his last three defeats were in striking battles. While Holland doesn’t look to take fights to the ground very often, he landed 14 takedowns on 36 attempts (38.9% accuracy) between his 21 UFC matches and his DWCS appearance. However, he only landed four takedowns in his last 10 fights. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 43 of their 95 attempts (54.7% defense). In Holland’s last 22 fights, the only three opponents to unsuccessfully try to get him down were Michael Page, Joaquin Buckley, and Michael Chiesa. Holland will face another pure striker here, so he won’t have to worry about getting taken down in this matchup.
Michal Oleksiejczuk
14th UFC Fight (7-5, NC)Oleksiejczuk will be looking to bounce back from a quick first round submission loss to Michel Pereira, who has now finished three straight opponents in under 66 seconds since moving up from 170 lb to 185 lb. Pereira had Oleksiejczuk badly hurt from body shots, before he dragged him to the mat by his neck and immediately finished him with a rear-naked choke that Oleksiejczuk never even attempted to fight off. Prior to that, Oleksiejczuk landed a first round TKO win over a dangerous striker in Chidi Njokuani, where both fighters had the other hurt in a back and forth barn burner. However, Oleksiejczuk was able to land a rare takedown and finish Njokuani with ground and pound in the final minute of the opening round. Just before that, Oleksiejczuk was submitted in the second round by a solid grappler in Caio Borralho, who was able to take Oleksiejczuk down three times and then finish him with a rear-naked choke midway through round two. Leading up to that loss, Oleksiejczuk landed a pair of first round knockouts against Cody Brundage and Sam Alvey in his first two fights at 185 lb, after losing his last 205 lb fight in a decision against Dustin Jacoby. Six of Oleksiejczuk’s seven UFC wins have come by R1 KO, with the one exception being a 2021 split-decision victory over Modestas Bukauskas, who ran away from him for most of the fight. Oleksiejczuk originally came into the UFC in 2017 with a 12-2 record and on a nine fight winning streak. However, after winning his 2017 UFC debut by decision over Khalil Rountree in 2017, Oleksiejczuk tested positive for a banned estrogen blocker and was suspended for a year and the results of the fight were overturned to a No Contest. Upon his return, he landed a pair of first round knockouts, but was then submitted in back-to-back fights by Ovince Saint Preux and Jimmy Crute in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Since then, he’s won five of his last eight fights, with his last four wins all coming by first round knockout.
Now 19-7 as a pro, Oleksiejczuk has 14 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. His last nine and 11 of his 14 KO wins ended in round one, with the other three coming in round two. His lone submission win occurred in the second round of a 2016 match. He’s been knocked out once, submitted five times, and has one decision loss. His lone TKO loss came in the first round of a 2014 fight, while three of his five submission defeats also ended in round one, with the other two coming in round two. Ten of his last 12 UFC fights have ended in the first two rounds, with eight of those ending in round one. Oleksiejczuk was always undersized at 205 lb, so it’s not at all shocking that he finally made the move down to 185 lb in 2022, where he’s since gone 3-2. His 2014 pro debut was also at 185 lb, but the rest of his career was spent at 198-212 lb.
Overall, Oleksiejczuk is a pure striker who’s constantly pressuring his opponents and looking for violent body shots out of the southpaw stance. He’s extremely dangerous with his striking, but has been very prone to getting taken down and submitted. He’s only landed two takedowns in his last 12 fights and really doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling. In his 13 UFC fights, he’s been taken down 16 times on 31 attempts (48.4% defense), although half of those takedowns came against Jimmy Crute, who took him down 8 times on 10 attempts. Despite making his UFC debut all the way back in 2017, Oleksiejczuk is only 29 years old and theoretically still has time to improve his grappling if he wants to make a push in the division. Either way, he’s rarely in a boring fight and you always want to tune in when they lock the cage doors behind him.
Fight Prediction:
Holland will have a 3” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.
Both of these two are dangerous strikers who struggle immensely when going up against wrestlers. Oleksiejczuk is clueless when it comes to defending submissions and once got choked out by a shrunken turtleneck. So it will be interesting to see how much Holland looks to grapple. While Holland has terrible wrestling, he is a BJJ black belt with seven submission wins on his record. And the last two times he faced a highly submittable opponent, he was able to lock up submissions. One of those was Michael Chiesa, who came in with four submission losses and got submitted by Holland in round one. The other was Tim Means, who has now been submitted seven times in his career and Holland submitted him in round two after hurting him on the feet. One thing to keep in mind is that Holland didn’t land a takedown in either of those fights, on just one attempt, and both submissions came via Brabo choke as those two opponents tried to take him down. Oleksiejczuk comes into this matchup with five submission losses, all in under eight minutes. In addition to having the grappling advantage, Holland also has better cardio, is more durable, and will be the taller, longer fighter. That will make life tough for Oleksiejczuk, who relies on his boxing and will need to close the distance to find success. Holland will be able to land from the outside and then tie Oleksiejczuk up when he comes into his own striking range. After losing two straight, Holland should be desperate for a win, increasing the chances that he fights a little smarter and tries to take the path of least resistance, which is on the mat. However, you never know with Holland and he loves to throw down in a striking battle. Also, the fact that he’s moving up a weight class on shorter notice adds some uncertainty to the mix. Nevertheless, Oleksiejczuk appears outmatched in this spot and we expect Holland to finish him.
Our favorite bet here is “Kevin Holland ITD” at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Holland is reliant on landing well timed finishes to really score well in DFS, as he failed to land a takedown in eight of his last 10 fights and only averages 4.24 SSL/min. He’s coming off a pair of decision losses, where he only scored 36 and 51 DraftKings points respectively. The previous two decisions he went to were in 2021 and both ended in five-round losses and the last time Holland won with the judges was in 2020, where he defeated Darren Stewart by split decision, but only scored 84 DraftKings points. His other two UFC decision wins returned scores of 86 and 73 and Holland has yet to show the ability to score well without a finish. And even when he does finish fights early he still often struggles to put up huge scores. His last finish ended in a first round submission and was only good for 95 DraftKings points, after his previous two early wins ended in the later rounds and only returned DraftKings scores of 82 and 88. He was able to completely fill up the stat sheet in his first UFC win against a helpless John Phillips, who Holland submitted in the third round and scored 133 DraftKings points against. Holland also secured the Quick Win Bonus against Anthony Hernandez in 2020, allowing him to score 131 points. However, the only other time that Holland has topped 101 points was in a first round TKO over a terrible Charlie Ontiveros in 2020 that was good for 113 points. Holland’s last five finishes all scored 101 or less points, with four of those failing to top 97. So at his expensive price tag, there are plenty of ways for him to get priced out of the optimal lineup even if he ends things early. However, he does get an uptempo matchup here against an opponent who’s been incredibly prone to getting submitted, and this is one of the better spots for Holland to hit a ceiling performance if he can land a well timed finish. Coming off two straight losses, we could also see his ownership take a slight dip, which would add to his tournament appeal. The odds imply Holland has a 72% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Oleksiejczuk is an aggressive one-dimensional striker who’s landed first round knockouts in six of his seven UFC wins, showing massive scoring upside for DFS. He averaged an insane 119 DraftKings points in those six finishes, but scored just 59 points in his lone UFC decision victory. While Oleksiejczuk is always live to knock opponents out early, he hasn’t finished anybody beyond the first round since 2015 and tends to slow down later in fights. That seemingly leaves him as an early KO or bust option, but he’s exceptional at getting that job done. However, he’s also been very prone to getting taken down and submitted, with four of his five UFC losses coming by submission in under eight minutes. While Holland is more of a striker and has terrible wrestling, he is a BJJ black belt with seven submission wins to his name. That leaves Oleksiejczuk with a shaky floor if Holland decides to go the smarter route and looks to grapple early. Holland has also been very durable throughout his career and will have the height and reach advantage against Oleksiejczuk, so this doesn’t look like a favorable matchup for Oleksiejczuk to land the finish he needs to score well. However, if he does knock Holland out, Oleksiejczuk will be a near lock to end up in tournament winning lineups at his cheap price tag. The odds imply Oleksiejczuk has a 28% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Sean Strickland
22nd UFC Fight (15-6)Looking to bounce back from a five-round title-fight split-decision loss to Dricus Du Plessis, Strickland only held onto the Middleweight belt for 133 days after pulling off the stunning upset as a +500 underdog against Israel Adesanya in a September decision. In his recent loss, all three judges scored rounds one and five for Strickland and rounds two and four for Du Plessis, while two of the three also had Du Plessis winning round three. While Strickland did finish ahead 173-137 in significant strikes, Du Plessis appeared to do more damage, and also landed six takedowns, while being the aggressor for most of the match. Strickland never looked especially impressive or comfortable in the match, as he allowed Du Plessis to lead the dance. Prior to that, it was Adesanya who looked bad as Strickland dropped him in the first round and then won rounds three, four, and five on all three scorecards to dethrone the former champ. Just two months before that, Strickland landed a second round TKO win over Abusupiyan Magomedov in a July 1st main event. Magomedov gassed out hard in the second round and was just there to be hit/finished. That is Strickland’s only finish in his last nine fights, with his second most recent early win coming all the way back in 2020 against Brendan Allen, also in a second round TKO. Strickland’s only other finish since 2016 was a 2018 R2 KO win over Nordine Taleb, who got finished in three of his last four UFC fights before hanging it up in 2019. Prior to finishing Magomedov, Strickland stepped in on short notice for another main event spot and won a decision over Nassourdine Imavov. That snapped a two-fight skid after Strickland lost a five-round split decision against Jared Cannonier following a first round knockout against Alex Pereira. Leading up to the pair of losses, Strickland had won six straight fights, with the last two of those victories ending in five-round decisions against Uriah Hall and Jack Hermansson. Four of Strickland’s last five and six of his last eight fights ended in five-round decisions (4-2), with three of those being split (1-2).
Now 28-6 as a pro, Strickland has 11 wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and 13 decision victories. He has four decision losses, while both of his early losses ended in first round knockouts. The first of those knockout losses came in 2018 against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in a 170 lb fight, while the other was in 2022 against Alex Pereira at 185 lb. Those are the only two times in Strickland’s last 20 matches that we’ve seen his fights end in the first round. Fourteen of his last 20 fights went the distance, while all four of his early wins over that stretch came in rounds two and three. Strickland won seven of the last nine decisions he’s been to, with the two losses both being split. His only other decision loss since 2015 was against Kamaru Usman in 2017. Strickland joined the UFC in 2014 at 185 lb, but after starting out 2-0 he moved down to 170 lb for a three year stretch from 2015 to 2018 where he went 5-3. Following a 2018 R2 TKO win at 170 lb, Strickland was forced into a 2-year layoff following a motorcycle accident and a career-threatening knee injury. Upon his return, he moved back up to 185 lb where he has since gone 8-3, extending his UFC 185 lb record to 10-3.
This will be Strickland’s 8th five-round fight in the UFC. Six of his previous seven ended in decisions (4-2), with the one exception being his R2 TKO win over Abusupiyan Magomedov. Both of his five-round losses came by split decision. Strickland also had five fights scheduled to go five rounds before he joined the UFC, all of which he won, with three first round knockouts and two decisions.
Overall, Strickland generally likes to steadily pressure his opponents as he inches forward while pumping out his jab. He’s been largely content with outpointing his way to victory and he only really pushes for a finish when an unmistakable opportunity clearly presents itself. He’s far more concerned with securing victories than ending things early, but he also demonstrated against Alex Pereira that he would rather lose a striking battle than win a wrestling match. In his 11 fights since returning to 185 lb, Strickland landed seven takedowns on nine attempts (77.8% accuracy), while defending 16 of the 23 attempts against him (69.6% defense). Four of those seven takedowns landed were against Uriah Hall and he’s only landed/attempted three total takedowns in his other 10 most recent fights, failing to land more than one in any of those matches. Strickland is 15-2 in the UFC when he’s led in striking and 0-4 when he’s trailed, and his success stems almost entirely from his ability to outland his opponents.
Paulo Costa
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Costa is fresh off a decision loss to Robert Whittaker, where Costa had Whittaker hurt at the end of round one with a perfectly placed spinning kick to the face. However, that was Costa’s only big moment in the fight and Whittaker finished ahead 95-67 in striking to get his hand raised with the judges. Prior to that February 2024 defeat, Costa hadn't competed since August 2022, when he won a decision over a 37-year-old Luke Rockhold, who was fighting for the fight time in three years. That fight took place at elevation in Salt Lake City and both guys gassed out, but Costa still did enough to win a unanimous 30-27 decision and was close to finding a finish. Costa was then booked on two separate occasions but both fights fell through, resulting in an 18 month layoff. Prior to that win, Costa pulled a stunt against Marvin Vettori in October 2021 and decided they were going to compete at 205 lb instead of 185 lb during fight week. Undeterred, Vettori still went on to win a five-round decision at the higher weight class. A year before that, Costa got a shot at the belt, but was knocked out by Israel Adesanya in the second round, after winning his first five UFC fights. Costa hasn’t been very active since 2017, fighting just once a year from 2018 to 2022 and then not at all in 2023. This will be the first time he’s fought twice in a calendar year since 2017, the year he joined the UFC. He’s just 1-3 in his last four fights and only has one win since 2019, and he hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2018 when he finished Uriah Hall in the second round. All six of Costa’s UFC wins have come against struggling and/or aging opponents, many of whom were at the tailend of their careers. He made his 2017 UFC debut against then 35-year-old Garreth McLellan who came in having lost three of his last four fights and has now lost five of his last six with three of those losses ending in KOs. Then Costa faced Oluwale Bamgbose, who was 1-2 in the UFC at the time and finished his UFC career 1-4 with three KO losses. Next Costa took on a 34-year-old Johny Hendricks in his final UFC fight. Hendricks had lost four of his previous five matches. Following the win over Hendricks, Costa defeated Uriah Hall, who had lost three of his last four fights with two R1 KOs coming into the fight and is now retired. Costa’s next win was in a close 2019 decision against a 42-year-old Yoel Romero, who came in having lost two of his last three and Costa’s last win was against a 37-year-old Rockhold, who’s lost three straight with his last win coming in 2017.
Now 14-3 as a pro, Costa has 11 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out once and has two decision losses. Costa finished nine straight opponents in the first round to start his MMA career, but his last eight UFC fights all made it to round two, with four ending in second round knockouts (3-1) and the other four going the distance (2-2). He’s only been past the second round four times in his career, but all of those were in his last five fights and they all ended up going the distance. The only one of his last five fights to end early was a 2020 R2 TKO loss to Adesanya.
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Costa’s career. He lost the first two in a 2020 R2 TKO against Israel Adesanya and a 2021 high-volume decision against Marvin Vettori.
Overall, Costa is a high-volume power puncher who averages 6.20 SSL/min and 6.38 SSA/min, while 12 of his 14 career wins ended early. All of those finishes ended in the first two rounds. He’s also allegedly a BJJ black belt, but only landed three takedowns on four attempts in his nine UFC fights (75% accuracy). However, he has a solid 80% takedown defense and has only been taken down 5 times on 25 attempts in the UFC. While Costa has shown the ability to defeat lower-level and aging opponents, he’s consistently struggled when facing a step up in competition and he gets another tough test here in a former world champion.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’1” and 33 years old, but Strickland will have a 4” reach advantage.
Strickland has largely been a five-round decision machine in recent years. Seven of his last nine fights went the distance (5-2), with the last six of those decisions coming in five-round fights. Both of his two decision losses over that stretch were split and the only time he’s been finished since 2018 was against Alex Pereira, who went on to win both the 185 lb and 205 lb belts. Strickland won three straight fights leading up to his recent split decision loss to Dricus Du Plessis for the Middleweight belt. On the other side of things, Costa has lost three of his last four fights, with his only win over that stretch coming in a three-round decision against a washed up Luke Rockhold, who was making a quick cameo out of retirement. Costa’s second most recent win was nearly five years ago, in a decision over another aging fighter in Yoel Romero, who was in the midst of a four-fight losing streak. The last time Costa finished anybody was in 2018 and Strickland has only been finished twice in 34 pro fights. Neither guy looks to wrestle much, but they both land a good amount of striking volume, with Strickland averaging 5.91 SSL/min and Costa 6.20 SSA/min. However, Costa also averages 6.38 SSA/min, while Strickland only averages 4.33 SSA/min. Strickland will also have the cardio advantage, while Costa is the more powerful of the two. It would be surprising to see Costa outland his way to a decision win, which likely leaves him reliant on knocking Strickland out—unless he can produce multiple round-winning moments in the match to overcome the expected striking deficit. We don’t see Costa finishing Strickland and all of Costa’s paths to victory are pretty thin. We would also be surprised to see Strickland finish Costa, unless Costa completely gasses out. However, he showed the ability to fight five rounds against Marvin Vettori and his last three fights all went the distance. So no hot takes from us here, just a meat and potatoes Sean Strickkand decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Strickland/Costa Over 3.5 Rounds” at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Strickland has been in seven UFC fights that were scheduled to go five rounds, with six of those going the distance (4-2) and one ending in a second round TKO win. He averaged 113 DraftKings points in those four decision wins and also scored 68 and 71 DraftKings points in a pair of five-round split-decision losses to Jared Cannonier and Dricus Du Plessis that would have been good for 98 and 101 points respectively had those decisions gone his way. In his lone finish in a five-round fight, he scored 113 points in R2 TKO victory against an opponent who completely gassed out. Despite his lack of offensive wrestling, Strickland has shown the ability to score well through striking volume alone. He averages 5.91 SSL/min, while Costa gets hit a ton, averaging 6.38 SSA/min. And while Strickland hasn’t always put up huge scores in five-round decision wins, he has shown both a solid floor and ceiling and now gets an uptempo matchup where he should be able to put up a big striking total. The only downside with Strickland is that he’ll be popular, making it harder to create unique tournaments lineups that include him. The odds imply Strickland has a 68% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Costa has averaged 97 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with four of those ending in knockouts. However, he’s lost three of his last four fights and he hasn’t finished anybody since 2018. He made a career out of beating up on opponents who were past their prime and he’s consistently struggled to win tougher matchups. Now he’ll face a former world champion and this certainly qualifies as a tougher matchup. Nevertheless, Costa always has a puncher’s chance and if he were to somehow win a decision he would likely land enough striking volume to serve as a value play at his cheap price tag. Demonstrating that, he scored 73 DraftKings points in a 2021 five-round decision loss to Marvin Vettori, which is the only time Costa has ever been past the third round. That even creates the longshot potential for Costa to sneak into winning lineups in a loss if we get a slate where only 1-2 underdogs win. However, that doesn’t happen very often and it will be tough for Costa to pull off the upset here. The odds imply Costa has a 32% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Islam Makhachev
16th UFC Fight (14-1)Makhachev is eight months removed from a first round knockout win over Alexander Volkanovski, who’s actually the only opponent that Makhachev has defended the Lightweight belt against. Makhachev originally won the belt in an October 2022 second round submission against Charles Oliveira and then traveled into enemy territory to face Volkanovski in Australia for his first title defense. Volkanovski was moving up form 145 lb to 155 lb for the first time since his 2016 UFC debut and fared better than most expected in the fight, but still ultimately lost a decision to Makhachev. The UFC then put together a rematch with Charles Oliveira for Makhachev’s next defense, but Oliveira dropped out and Volkanovski stepped in on short notice to get a rematch of his own. Volkanovski had gone back down to 145 lb to defend his belt after his first loss to Makhachev, so he was again moving up a weight class and this time only had a week and a half to do it, while also being the one traveling into hostile territory. Those obstacles proved too much to overcome and Makhachev knocked Volkanovski out in the first round with a head kick. Makhachev has won 13 straight fights after suffering the only loss of his career in a 2015 R1 knockout in his second UFC appearance. Six of Makhachev’s last seven fights ended early, with the one exception being his first match against Volkanovski.
Now 25-1 as a pro, Makhachev has five wins by KO/TKO, 11 submissions, and nine decision victories. All five of his career KO/TKO wins occurred in the first round, although two of those were in his first three pro fights back in 2011 and 11 of his last 14 finishes came by submission. Of Makhachev’s 11 career submission wins, five came in round one, three ended in round two, two more occurred in round three, and one ended in round four. The only loss of his career was a 2015 R1 KO.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Makhachev’s career. The first ended in a 2021 fourth round submission win over BJJ black belt Thiago Moises. Makhachev was in no rush to finish the fight, and only attempted one takedown in the first two rounds, which he landed late in round one. Makhachev’s next five-round fight finished in a R1 TKO win over a late replacement in Bobby Green. Then Makhachev landed a second round submission against Oliveira to claim the Lightweight belt, before defending it in a decision win over Volkanovski, followed by a first round knockout of Volkanovski. So only twice in his career has Makhachev seen the championship rounds and only once has he been in a fight that lasted longer than 18 minutes. Makhachev notably faded in the 5th round the one time he made it that far.
Overall, Makhachev is an elite wrestler and former Combat Sambo world champion who doesn’t absorb much damage, as he averages just 1.27 SSA/min, the 8th fewest in UFC history (he held the record before his last two fights). In his 15 UFC fights, Makhachev has impressively landed 31 of his 51 takedown attempts (60.8% accuracy), while he has a 90% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice in his career—once by Thiago Moises and another time by Arman Tsarukyan. So he’s very defensively sound all around and appears to be making improvements to his striking as well. Makhachev cuts a ton of weight and is always a guy you want to monitor closely on the scale.
Dustin Poirier
31st UFC Fight (22-7, NC)Fresh off a second round knockout win over Benoit Saint Denis, Poirier has traded wins and losses for five straight fights. The last time he won two fights in a row was in 2021 when he finished Conor McGregor in back-to-back fights. In his recent win, Poirier attempted 25 unsuccessful guillotine attempts, while getting taken down three times in a round and a half. Saint Denis also outlanded Poirier 38-12 in significant strikes in the first round, before gassing out in round two and getting knocked out. The fight ended midway through round two with Saint Denis ahead 50-28 in significant strikes and 69-30 in total strikes. Saint Denis later took to social media to confirm the speculation that he did indeed come in with a staph infection, which may have contributed to his cardio collapse. Eight months prior to that win, Poirier suffered a violent second-round head kick knockout loss against Justin Gaethje for the BMF belt. Poirier never looked very good in that loss and finished behind 41-27 in striking. Just before that, Poirier locked up a third round submission win over Michael Chandler in November 2022, which is Poirier’s only submission victory since 2017 and just his second since 2012. Chandler was able to take Poirier down three times on seven attempts and finished with five and a half minutes of control time. However, Chandler slowed down in round three, at which point Poirier was able to reverse him on the mat, take his back, and lock up a rear-naked choke. That came 11 months after Poirier was submitted early in the third round of a December 2021 title fight against Charles Oliveira. Poirier’s only other loss since 2016 was another third round submission with the belt on the line, that time in 2019 against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Leading up to his loss against Oliveira, Poirier notched back-to-back KO/TKO wins against Conor McGregor, after winning a wild five-round decision over Dan Hooker following his loss to Nurmagomedov.
Now 30-8 as a pro, Poirier has 15 wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and seven decision victories. Fourteen of Poirier’s 15 career KO/TKO wins occurred in the opening two rounds, with 10 ending in the first round and four in round two. The one exception was a 2018 R4 TKO over Justin Gaethje. Six of his eight submission wins also occurred in the first two rounds. On the other side of things, he’s been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has two decision defeats. After starting his pro career at 155 lb, Poirier dropped down to 145 lb for the first time in his 2011 UFC debut. He stayed at 145 lb for his first 11 UFC matches, where he went 8-3, before moving back up to 155 lb following a 2014 R1 TKO loss to McGregor (in the first of their three fights). Since moving back up to 155 lb, Poirier has gone 14-4 plus a No Contest, with the losses coming in a pair of third round submissions against Khabib and Oliveira, a 2016 first round KO against Michael Johnson, and a R2 KO loss to Gaethje. Of his 14 UFC wins at 155 lb, eight ended in KO/TKOs, four went the distance and two ended in submissions.
This will be the 14th five-round UFC fight of Poirier’s career (8-5). Five of those eight wins ended in KO/TKOs, two went the distance, and one ended in a submission. He was submitted in the later rounds in three of those five losses, and knocked out in the opening six minutes of the other two. Here are all of his five-round fights:
2024 R2 KO W vs. Benoit Saint Denis
2023 R2 KO L vs. Justin Gaethje
2021 R3 SUB L vs. Charles Oliveira
2021 R1 TKO W vs. Conor McGregor
2021 R2 KO W vs. Conor McGregor
2020 R5 DEC W vs. Dan Hooker
2019 R3 SUB L vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov
2019 R5 DEC W vs. Max Holloway
2018 R2 TKO W vs. Eddie Alvarez
2018 R4 TKO W vs. Justin Gaethje
2017 R3 SUB W vs. Anthony Pettis
2016 R1 KO L vs. Michael Johnson
2012 R4 SUB L vs. The Korean Zombie
Overall, Poirier is primarily a striker but does have a BJJ black belt and will mix in occasional takedown attempts. He has a career 36% takedown accuracy and 63% defense, and in his last 10 fights he landed 4 of his 19 takedown attempts (21.1% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents on 17 of their 41 attempts (58.5% defense). He failed to get any of his last 10 opponents down more than once, and didn’t land a takedown in any of his last four fights. On the other side of things, four of the last six opponents who tried to take him down landed multiple of their attempts. Saint Denis landed three of his attempts, Chandler got him down three times, Hooker took him down four times, and Nurmagomedov took him down seven times. Despite being a black belt, Poirier has been prone to getting submitted, but he did win the last five decisions he went to, with his last decision loss occurring all the way back in 2013. He averages 5.45 SSL/min and 4.36 SSA/min, but has been outlanded in significant strikes in seven of his last nine fights, with the two exceptions both coming against McGregor. Poirier is rarely in a boring fight, but will now be facing one of the best grapplers on the planet in a terrible stylistic matchup.
Fight Prediction:
Makhachev will have a 1” height advantage, but Poirier will have a 2” reach advantage. Makhachev is three years younger than the 35-year-old Poirier.
Poirier has really struggled to defend takedowns lately and in his last eight fights the only fighters who failed to take him down three or more times were Justin Gaethje, who never attempted a takedown, and Conor McGregor, who only attempted one takedown in their last two fights. That’s a terrible sign for Poirier’s chances of keeping this fight standing against the 60% takedown accuracy of Makhachev. And unlike Saint Denis, Makhachev won’t gas out after the first round. It seems almost inevitable that Makhachev will take Poirier down and finish him on the mat, it’s just a matter of how long it takes. Poirier's previous three submission losses in five-round fights all came in rounds three and four, with the last two ending in round three against Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov. It’s hard to know if Makhachev will play with his food or look for a quicker finish so he can say he got Poirier out of there quicker than Khabib. Either way, we like him to finish Poirier in the first three rounds, most likely by submission but a TKO isn’t impossible either.
Our favorite bet here is “Islam Makhachev SUB” at +115.
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DFS Implications:
Makhachev is one of the trickiest fighters to deal with on the planet. His combination of smothering wrestling and high-level submission skills make him a nightmare on the mat and now he’s looking like more of a threat on the feet as well. He averaged 110 DraftKings points in his five UFC fights (5-0) that were scheduled to go five rounds, with him finishing four of those opponents. While six of his last seven fights ended early, he scored “just” 94 DraftKings points and only 78 points on FanDuel in a five-round decision win over Volkanovski, which is the only time he’s ever gone five full rounds. That shows how much safer his floor is on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, but his finishing upside leaves him with a solid ceiling on both sites. While he failed to crack the century mark on either site in that decision win, we see that as being more of his floor than his ceiling and it wasn’t his best performance by any means. It should be easier for him to find wrestling success here against the pedestrian 63% takedown defense of Poirier, who has also been prone to getting submitted. So if this does somehow go the full 25 minutes, Makhachev still has the ability to put up a big DraftKings score, but will have a tougher time returning value on FanDuel. However, we’re not expecting this one to hit the scorecards and Makhachev likely finishes Poirier on the mat in the first half of the match. At that point the question just becomes whether or not Makhachev scores enough to avoid getting priced out of winning lineups as the most expensive fighter on both sites. That could simply come down to timing, and a finish early in the second or third round would make it tougher for him to get there. That can be looked at as a positive or a negative depending on your perspective, but keep in mind he’s been between 44-61% owned on DraftKings in each of his last four fights. We expect him to be extremely popular once again, which lowers his tournament appeal some, but there’s no question that he has a massive scoring floor and ceiling combination. The odds imply Makhachev has an 82% chance to win, a 67% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Poirier has traded wins and losses for five straight fights and there was speculation leading up to his last fight that he could retire if he lost. However, he instead pulled off the upset in a R2 KO as a +175 underdog against Benoit Saint-Denis, who gassed out in the second round and later confirmed the rumors that he came in with a staph infection. Keep in mind, Poirier was losing that fight before Saint-Denis gassed out. Poirier got taken down three times and controlled for nearly five of the seven and a half minutes that the match lasted, while also finishing behind 50-28 in significant strikes and 69-30 in total strikes. That finish was good for 93 DraftKings points and 124 points on FanDuel, with the help of four guillotine attempts. Just before that, Poirier was the one who got knocked out in the second round in a fight against Justin Gaethje, after Poirier submitted Michael Chandler in the third round of a 2022 match, but only scored 67 DraftKings points and 83 points on FanDuel in the process. And just before that Poirier was the one who got submitted in the third round by Charles Oliveira. The last time Poirier scored more than 93 DraftKings points was in a 2021 R1 TKO win over Conor McGregor that was good for 115 points. While Poirier has shown tons of scoring potential in the past when he’s facing strikers who are willing to throw down on the feet, his last two title shots were both against grapplers and he got submitted in the third round in each of those matches. He’s facing another grappler here and Makhachev only averages 1.27 SSA/min, the 8th fewest in UFC history. Makhachev also has a 60.8% takedown accuracy, while Poirier has just a 63% defense. So the chances of Poirier keeping this fight upright are slim and it would be shocking to see him complete one of meme guillotines. It’s also hard to see him winning a decision if he gets controlled on the mat for extended periods of time, which likely leaves him reliant on landing a hail mary knockout. And if he gets controlled for a round or two and then lands a mid round knockout, he’s unlikely to score very well. However, as the cheapest fighter on the card it could still potentially be enough for him to be useful if we get a slate with very few underdog winners. He’s already 35 years old, and fighters that age or higher in the lighter weight classes have really struggled historically in title fights. The odds imply Poirier has an 18% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
Sean Strickland OVER 119.5 SS
