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Fight Day Scratches:
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Carlos Hernandez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a fast-paced split-decision win on DWCS last October, Hernandez is on a seven fight winning streak since losing a decision in his 2017 pro debut. Four of those wins have come by submission, including three in the first round and one in round two, with the other three ending in decisions. His last two and three of his last five fights have gone the distance and four of his last five matches have at least made it to the second round.
His DWCS was a non stop back and forth scrap with a mix of grappling and striking throughout the fight. Hernandez finished ahead 77-52 in significant strikes and 100-72 in total strikes, while leading 4:52-2:13 in control time, but failed to land any of his eight takedown attempts. His opponent, Daniel Barez, landed 5 of his 16 takedown attempts, but Hernandez won the fight on his striking output in the final round.
Hernandez trains with Ignacio Bahamondes, who is also fighting on this card, as well as other UFC fighters such as Belal Muhammad. He’s generally looking to push the pace, and while his takedown accuracy isn’t great, he’s dangerous on the mat and does a good job of controlling opponents once there. He’s prone to getting taken down himself, but he’s good at quickly scrambling to return to his feet.
Victor Altamirano
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Also making his debut off a split-decision win on DWCS, Altamirano comes in on a four fight winning streak, with three of those four ending decisions, including two split. His lone finish in his last six fights came in a weird situation where he landed an illegal up kick and the ref paused the fight. When the ref reset the position Altamirano immediately wrapped up a triangle choke to land a finish in a fight he had been losing.
A BJJ brown belt, Altamirano seems a little too comfortable working off his back in a closed guard and while he does have four submissions on his record, three of those came in his first four pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0, and 1-1.
In his recent DWCS fight, Altamirano was controlled for over five minutes in the first two rounds before his opponent gassed out in round three and Altamirano took over. It still appeared that Altamirano had lost the first two rounds, but two of the judges disagreed and he ended up winning a split-decision. The fight ended with him ahead in significant strikes 100-73 and in total strikes 178-123, but that was largely bolstered by the third round where he led in significant strikes 54-14 and in total strikes 64-17. Altamirano landed 4 of his 8 takedown attempts, while his opponent landed 5 of his 16 attempts. Altamirano finished behind in control time 5:14-2:03, and half of his takedowns and three quarters of his control time also came in round three.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Altamirano has one win by KO, four by submission, and five by decision. However, four of his last five wins have gone the distance. His only career loss came in a 2019 R2 rear-naked choke in his only fight outside of the LFA prior to going on DWCS. Altamirano won the vacant LFA Flyweight belt in his second most recent fight in a five-round decision, so cardio shouldn’t be a concern for him.
Altamirano has routinely come in well under the Flyweight limit, weighing in as low as 122.8 lb in the past, but he did weigh 125.5 lb for his recent DWCS fight.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8” but Altamirano will have a 3” reach advantage.
Both of these two have primarily been submission threats throughout their career, with just one combined win via KO between them. They’ve also both been durable, with just one combined early loss. If this does end early, look for it to be by submission, but we see it going the distance. Hernandez looks to be the busier fighter and we like his chances to outwork his way to a decision victory here.
Our favorite bet here is “Hernandez Decision” at +210.
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DFS Implications:
While 58% of Flyweight fights went the distance in 2021, they’re still interesting for DFS based on the high pace they operate at. Hernandez is constantly forcing the action with both striking and takedown attempts, and while his takedown accuracy has been sketchy at best, the attempts at least present a theoretical ceiling. He also has solid top control and grappling when fights do make it to the ground. Overall, he has a nice combination of grappling and striking that give him a solid scoring floor, and with four of his seven pro wins coming by submission he also has a legit ceiling in fights where he can find a finish. At his cheap DraftKings price tag, it’s possible he could serve as a value play in a decision if this turns into an all out brawl, like many Flyweight bouts do. He’s an interesting play in all contest types and the line has notably moved in his favor. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Altamirano isn’t quite as active as Hernandez and is a little too comfortable off his back for our liking, but he’s shown the ability to win close fights and half of his career victories have come early. While we like Hernandez to win this fight, if Altamirano does pull off the upset, it likely means he either landed a finish or matched Hernandez’s pace, both of which should result in solid scoring. At his cheap price tag, even just a good score has the potential to serve as a value play depending on how the rest of the slate goes, so it makes sense to target both sides of this fight with your exposure. The odds imply Altamirano has a 43% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Ramiz Brahimaj
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Gillmore had been scheduled to face Johnny Parsons, but Parsons dropped out and Brahimaj was announced as the replacement on February 17th, just 9 days before the event. Stepping in on short notice, Brahimaj fought just over a month ago when he lost a smothering decision to Court McGee on January 15th.
In that last fight, we saw the longtime UFC veteran Court McGee control Brahimaj for nearly 11 minutes as McGee landed 5 takedowns on 11 attempts, simply wearing out the young submission specialist in Brahimaj, who went 1 for 3 on his own takedown attempts. McGee finished ahead in significant strikes 54-32 and in total strikes 76-35. McGee also dropped Brahimaj at the end of the first round with a big right hand and overall it was an impressive performance by McGee. Brahimaj looked absolutely exhausted late in the fight and he’s still never won a fight that lasted longer than 7:34. With that loss, Brahimaj has now alternated wins and losses for eight straight fights.
Just prior to that loss, Brahimaj notched his only UFC win when he predictably put on a near flawless grappling performance against low-level talent Sasha Palatnikov. After not even attempting a takedown in his UFC debut, Brahimaj went back to his bread butter in the opening seconds against Palatnikov and easily secured top position on the mat. Palatnikov had no answer for Brahimaj’s smothering grappling and Brahimaj was able to lock up a rear-naked choke with ease. Palatnikov refused to tap and Brahimaj put him to sleep at the midway mark of the first round. The hyper-efficient finish ended with both fighters landing a single significant strike and Brahimaj officially going 2 for 2 on takedowns, both occurring in one continuous sequence early in the match. The fight lasted 153 seconds and Brahimaj finished with 132 seconds of control time.
A submission savant, all nine of Brahimaj’s career wins have come by submission, including eight in the first round and one in round two. On the flip side, three of his four pro losses ended in decisions. The only time he’s lost a fight early was in a freak injury in his UFC debut when Max Griffin gruesomely knocked his ear off, resulting in an immediate stoppage midway through the third round.
In that debut, the UFC threw Brahimaj straight into the fire as they paired him up against tough longtime UFC veteran in Max Griffin, who has never been submitted in his 12 year career. There are a lot of things to worry about going into your UFC debut, but getting your ear knocked off generally isn’t one of them. Oddly enough, Brahimaj didn’t shoot for a single takedown in that fight. Maybe he was overthinking and decided he wanted to prove he also had a standup game, but Griffin’s footwork played a pivotal role as he never provided a stationary target. Prior to getting mutilated midway through the third round, Brahimaj trailed in significant strikes 74-45 and in total strikes 82-46.
Brahimaj had previously been scheduled to make his debut in June 2020, but was forced to withdraw when one of his cornermen tested positive for COVID. A year prior, Brahimaj had been scheduled to go on DWCS in 2019, but a week before his match they discovered a tumor behind his eye. After having it successfully removed and going through an extensive recovery process, he endured a 20 month layoff leading up to his UFC debut. When you combine his struggles prior to getting into the UFC with the freak injury he suffered in his debut, Brahimaj has had to deal with far more adversity than your typical fighter early in their UFC career. Now, sitting on a 1-2 UFC record, this is a must win spot for Brahimaj, and luckily for him he gets a massive step down in competition.
Micheal Gillmore
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Moving back down to 170 lb after his last couple of matches were at 185 lb, Gillmore lost his UFC debut against fellow TUF competitor Andre Petroski in what was essentially a consolation match after both fighters lost on the show. Petroski controlled Gillmore for most of the fight as he landed 4 of his 9 takedown attempts with nearly eight minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just over 13 minutes before Petroski finished it midway through the third round with ground and pound. Petroski finished ahead in significant strikes 46-31 and in total strikes 91-38. Gillmore was able to stay on his feet for most of the second round, but Petroski landed a late takedown to finish the round strong and then returned the fight to the ground early in round three, where he kept it until he finished the fight.
In his lone fight on TUF, which officially counts as an exhibition match, Gillmore looked absolutely terrible as he immediately had his back taken by Gilbert Urbina and was then controlled for almost three minutes leading up to an easy round one submission via rear-naked choke.
Prior to going on TUF, Gillmore last fought at 175 lb in January 2020 and won a unanimous decision through leg kicks against a 1-1 Perry Stargel. The fight consisted almost entirely of Gillmore landing mild leg strikes with nothing else really happening in the 15 minute match.
Now 6-4 as a pro, Gillmore has three wins by KO and three decisions. All four of his losses have come early, with three submissions and one TKO. That doesn’t even count his submission loss on TUF, since it was ruled an exhibition match, but if you include that, he’s been submitted three times in round one and once in round two. Gillmore has never faced much in the way of experienced competition and his opponents have entered with records of 5-1, 1-1, 2-2-1, 2-3, 2-0, 3-2, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0, and 0-0.
Gillmore likes to throw lots of leg kicks, but he doesn’t really get that much behind them, so he needs to really land a ton to do much damage. Overall, he’s not a UFC level talent and there’s no chance he makes it beyond his first contract.
Fight Prediction:
Gillmore will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 72” reach. Brahimaj is five years younger than the 34-year-old Gillmore.
This is a very simple entry-level test for Brahimaj. If Brahimaj can’t submit Gillmore then he doesn’t belong in the UFC. It’s not complicated. With that said, we fully expect Brahimaj to pass the test and quickly choke Gillmore out in the first round. However, if Gillmore is somehow able to survive the first round and a half, he may have an opportunity to pull off an upset late in the fight, as Brahimaj’s cardio looked terrible in the third round of his last match. In fairness, he was also defending wrestling the entire fight and that’s not something we expect Gillmore to do. Give us Brahimaj by round one submission in this one and we expect him to make it look easy.
Our favorite bet here is “Brahimaj R1 Submission” at +240.
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DFS Implications:
With all nine of his career wins coming by submission in the first two rounds, including eight in round one, Brahimaj’s path to victory is pretty clear and this looks like the perfect bounce back opportunity to finish this fight early. Gillmore has been submitted in three of his four official career losses, which doesn’t even include his round one submission loss on The Ultimate Fighter, which counted as an exhibition match. If Brahimaj can’t land a submission here then he doesn’t belong in the UFC and sitting on a 1-2 UFC record, he’s likely fighting for his job. We expect to see a heightened sense of urgency out of him. He projects to be popular, although coming off a recent loss could slightly lower Brahimaj’s ownership compared to where it would otherwise be. It is possible that he wins this in such a hyper-efficient fashion that it doesn’t put up a huge score, and his last submission victory scored “just” 105 DraftKings so at his high price tag, it’s still entirely possible he lands a first round submission and still gets priced out of tournament winning lineups. With that said, he has a massive floor, and if Gillmore can at least put up some resistance, we could see Brahimaj land more than one takedown on his way to submitting him. The odds imply Brahimaj has a 74% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Gillmore has given us no indication that he can compete at the UFC level, and this looks like a terrible matchup for him as he’s been incredibly prone to getting submitted. He is moving down from 185 lb to 170 lb, which adds some uncertainty to the equation. While there’s always a chance he could perform better at the lighter weight class, it’s also possible he looks even worse. The only reasons to consider having any Gillmore exposure are that he projects to be the lowest owned fighter on the slate, while Brahimaj will be one of the most popular. Brahimaj has also never won a fight that made it past the midway mark and looked gassed in the third round of his last match. The odds imply Gillmore has a 26% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Jonathan Martinez
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Coming off a decision win over UFC newcomer Zviad Lazishvili who took the fight on short notice, Martinez did a good job of defending takedowns against the grappler as he stuffed all six of Lazishvili’s attempts. Martinez led the match in significant strikes 92-63 and in total strikes 94-66 as he outlanded his way to a methodical decision win, but he appeared content with pointing his way to victory and never really pushed for a finish in the match.
All eight of Martinez’s UFC fights have seen the second round, with seven making it to round three, and five ending in decisions. He’s alternated decisions (3-1) and KOs (2-1) for his last seven matches, with his last two knockouts both ending in round three and the only early loss of his career coming against Davey Grant in a second round KO in his second most recent fight.
In the fight against Grant, Martinez started off strong and dropped Grant late in round one, but Grant was able to recover and turn the tables in round two before eventually knocking Martinez out with a left cross midway through the second round. The fight ended with Grant ahead in significant strikes 48-29, while he failed to land his only takedown attempt. Martinez struggled with getting taken down earlier in his career, as he was grounded three times in each of his first two UFC fights, but has since only been taken down once in his last six matches on 16 attempts.
Martinez came into the UFC with a 9-1 pro record with his only loss coming from a DQ for an illegal knee against Matt Schnell—and in fairness, who could resist popping Schnell with a knee given the opportunity? Martinez now holds a 14-4 career record, with seven wins by KO, two by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out once, lost two decisions, and has the one DQ loss. It’s worth noting that five of Martinez’s seven KO wins occurred in his first five pro fights, but in fairness to him, all of those opponents had at least four pro fights of experience unlike most of the fighters we see. Martinez is dangerous with his legs and likes to throw lots of flying knees, which he’s used to knock multiple opponents out. Overall, he’s a patient striker, who doesn’t really add anything in terms of grappling.
Alejandro Perez
13th UFC Fight (8-3-1)Following a 27 month layoff, Perez secured a second round submission win over a 43-year-old Johnny Eduardo in his last fight. That was notably the ninth time Eduardo has been submitted in his 13 pro losses and he’s one of the more submittable fighters on the UFC roster. Eduardo led in significant strikes 31-23 and in total strikes 38-34, while both guys landed their only takedown attempt and each finished with exactly 74 seconds of control time. Perez’s wide stance makes him vulnerable to leg kicks, and Eduardo landed 16 of them in a fight that lasted just over nine minutes.
Prior to that win, Perez hadn’t competed since July 2019, when he was violently knocked out in the first round by Song Yadong. He had been scheduled to face Thomas Almeida in October 2020, but Perez tested positive for COVID and was forced to withdraw. Just before getting knocked out by Yadong, Perez lost a decision to Cody Stamann, and he’s lost two of his last three fights, with his second most recent win coming in 2018. Five of his last eight matches have gone the distance.
Despite sporting the nickname “Turbo” Perez averages just 3.45 SSL/min and absorbs only 2.97 SS/min. He’s never landed more than 61 significant strikes in any of his 12 UFC fights, despite six of those matches going the distance. He also only averages 0.6 takedowns per 15 minutes, with just five takedowns landed in his 12 UFC fights and just two in his last six. Four of his 12 UFC fights have ended in KOs (3-1), two finished in submissions (1-1), and six went the distance (4-1-1). Looking at his entire pro career, Perez is 22-8-1 with nine KOs, six submission wins and seven decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times and has lost three decisions.
Fight Prediction:
Martinez will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
This fight was originally booked at 135 lb, but then got moved up to 145 lb mid fight week at the request of Perez. That’s generally not a great sign for a fighter and should be taken as a red flag. We expect Martinez to beat up the lead leg of Perez, which should compromise his mobility as the fight goes on and make it easier for Martinez to line up a late KO shot. We expect Martinez to outstrike Perez throughout the fight and either land a late knockout or win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Martinez R3 or Dec” at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Martinez has only topped 75 DraftKings points in one of his eight UFC fights, which was when he landed a R3 KO against Frankie Saenz and tacked on a ridiculous three knockdowns. His other R3 win scored just 68 DraftKings points and with average striking volume and just one takedown landed in his last six fights, he’s generally not a guy that helps you very often in DFS. To return value at his expensive price tag, he’ll either need to land a knockout in the first two rounds or the third round with multiple knockdowns behind it. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
In his four UFC decision wins, Perez has scored 51, 46, 67, and 52 DraftKings points, so even at his cheap price tag he still needs a finish to be useful. Most of his finishes haven’t scored especially well, with totals of 89, 96, 120, and 87. So the only time he’s topped 96 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC fights was when he landed a late round one KO with a ton of striking volume behind it back in 2016 against Ian Entwistle, who went 1-2 in his UFC career with both losses ending in round one KOs. With that said, considering his cheap price tag, a 90-95 point DraftKings score would likely still be useful. However, he has just two early wins since 2016 and Martinez has only been finished once in his career. The odds imply Perez has a 32% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Fares Ziam
4th UFC Fight (2-1)This fight had originally been booked for November 20th but one of McKinney's cornermen tested positive for COVID, and so it was postponed.
A painfully patient striker, Ziam has landed a total of 96 significant strikes in his three UFC fights, which have all ended in decisions. That’s “good” for just 2.13 SSL/min, which is amazingly low for a kickboxer who doesn’t grapple much.
After losing a decision in his UFC debut, Ziam has won a pair of incredibly close decisions, one of which looked like he lost and the other could have even been ruled a draw—as it was by one of the judges.
His most recent decision win came against Luigi Vendramini. Ziam did a good job of using his length, movement, and feints to keep Vendramini at range, forcing a slower-paced tactical battle for the first two rounds. Vendramini finally threw caution to the wind in round three, aggressively blitzing Ziam with strikes and finding himself in top position on the mat as Ziam looked overwhelmed by the aggression. Vendramini then spent the next few minutes on top advancing his position, while landing ground and pound and hunting for submissions. However, Ziam was able to return to his feet in the final 90 seconds and circle away from contact to narrowly survive the round. That demonstrated that Ziam is comfortable when he can dictate the pace, but is far less composed when he’s being pressured.
In his second most recent decision win, Ziam took on Jamie Mullarkey in October 2020. Mullarkey led in significant strikes 47-20 and total strikes 54-29, while landing 5 takedowns on 11 attempts. Ziam landed just 1 takedown on 5 attempts. Mullarkey also led in control time 6:56-1:12, yet somehow ended up losing a unanimous 28-29 decision in a complete head scratcher. So Ziam should probably be 1-2 in the UFC at this point.
Ziam made his UFC debut in September 2019 and spent almost the entire fight pushed up against the cage or on his back. He ended up landing just 10 significant strikes. To his credit, his opponent didn’t do much either, landing just 21 significant strikes and going 3 for 12 on takedowns, while Ziam went 0 for 4.
Ziam started his pro career off at 185 lb, before dropping down to 170 lb for his third pro fight. After two fights at 170 lb, Ziam then dropped down to Lightweight (155 lb), with a 159 lb Catchweight loss in between.
With a kickboxing background, Ziam won five straight fights just prior to joining the UFC, with four finishes over that stretch. While he’s exclusively fought to decisions in the UFC, nine of his 12 career wins have ended early, with five KOs and four submissions. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted twice, which came in a pair of 2016 R1 rear-naked chokes. His long legs and lanky frame make him tough to get down, as you can never lift him very far off the ground. His third career loss came by decision in his UFC debut. Overall, 11 of his 15 pro fights have ended early, but three of his four decisions have come since joining the UFC.
Terrance McKinney
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off one of the most electric UFC debuts you can have, McKinney stepped in on short notice and knocked out Matt Frevola in just seven seconds, although he then appeared to hurt his knee celebrating. It’s hard to take much away from the victory that we didn’t already know before, as McKinney has now landed four straight first round knockouts with three of those ending in 17 seconds or less. Incredibly, McKinney has only ever been in one fight that lasted longer than seven minutes and has never been to the judges in his 14 fight career.
Impressively, 12 of his 14 fights have ended in the first round, with seven of those ending in the first minute. He’s 11-3 as a pro, with five KOs and six wins by submission. He’s also lost twice by TKO and has been submitted once, although one of his TKO losses resulted from a leg injury early in his career. The other two early losses came against fighters who are currently in the UFC in Sean Woodson and Darrick Minner.
McKinney originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2019, nearly submitting Sean Woodson as he controlled his back for most of the fight until Woodson was able to escape and land a flying knee KO early in round two. McKinney then suffered another loss in his next fight against submission ninja Darrick Minner. McKinney got Minner to the ground, but the dangerous submission specialist was able to quickly throw up a triangle choke, forcing McKinney to tap. We didn’t see McKinney fight again for 17 months following the pair of disappointing losses.
After taking a year and a half off, McKinney exploded back onto the MMA scene in the Spring of 2021 with newly improved striking as he landed four straight first round KOs over a four month period, with the most recent two coming just a week apart in his final LFA fight and his June UFC debut.
In the first of those finishes, McKinney won with a 16 second R1 KO against a suspect Dedrek Sanders, who was coming off a pair of early losses and is now 3-3 as a pro. McKinney landed a violent left head kick that dropped Sanders and then finished it with ground and pound.
Then, less than two months later, McKinney landed another ultra quick KO with a 17 second finish in April against a 37-year-old opponent in Luiz Antonio Lobo Gavinho, who’s only loss in his previous six fights came against Cory Sandhagen. McKinney again went for a left head kick and landed shin-to-head on Gavinho. This was just the start of the fight but McKinney immediately finished it with aggressive ground and pound.
Next, McKinney was in a significantly longer fight that made it all the way to the 72 second mark before he finished it with his third straight first round KO. That was enough to get him a shot in the UFC and his skills appeared to translate seamlessly as he landed a knockout in just seven seconds. His last four fights have lasted an incredible combined time of 112 seconds.
With a college wrestling background, McKinney clearly has a solid grappling base that he utilizes with a kinetic pace, but his striking has also really improved in the last couple years. For such a lean frame, he definitely has knockout power, which he’s put on full display in 2021.
McKinney turned pro in 2017 and started off at 145 lb before moving up to 155 lb in his fourth pro fight. He’s also fought as high as 170 lb and has dropped back down to 145 lb at a couple of different points. All three of his career losses have notably come down at 145 lb. Now, he’s fighting at 155 lb. His most recent fight before joining the UFC was actually at a 160 lb Catchweight and he only has five career fights officially at 155 lb, which ended in a 2018 R3 submission win, a 2019 R1 submission win, and three 2021 R1 KOs.
Fight Prediction:
Ziam will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This is a really tricky one to break down as McKinney has never been to the judges in his 14 fight career, while Ziam is coming off three straight low-volume decisions and throws more feints than strikes. Ziam appears to have mastered the art of slowing down fights and making things tough on his opponents. He’s got good size and length for the division and is constantly feinting and moving to make it tough for his opponents to close the distance on him. He also has a pretty solid 68% takedown defense, making him defensively sound overall. He’s never been knocked out and his two submission losses both occurred five years ago. He appears far more concerned with fighting defensively than putting on a good show, which makes it incredibly difficult to predict that any of his fights will end early. With that said, he’s now facing the exact opposite style of fighter in Terrance McKinney, who has never been to a decision and is only focussed on finishes. Clearly, something’s gotta’ give here.
McKinney’s lone career KO loss came against another lanky Lightweight who also used to fight at a higher weight class in Sean Woodson, so there are some comparisons you can draw there in terms of reasons to think Ziam catches McKinney being overly aggressive and hands him the second KO loss of his career. You could also make the argument that McKinney will look to utilize his wrestling more, as Ziam has never been knocked out but has been submitted twice and is a one-dimensional kickboxer. More likely, McKinney will blitz Ziam early the way Vendramini did in the third round of their last fight and potentially land something clean to knock Ziam out for the first time in his career. It’s also plausible that Ziam is able to slow this fight down the way he normally does and force McKinney to see the judges for the first time in his career. While we hate laying out every possible scenario and saying anything is possible, this really could go any of those ways. Forced to choose, we’d be surprised if this went the distance and expect McKinney to force the action and either land another KO or get knocked out trying. Given that McKinney has both the power and wrestling advantages, we’ll give the edge to him, but don’t be surprised if he gets made to pay for being overly aggressive and Ziam lands his first UFC KO.
Our favorite bet here is “McKinney R1 KO” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
When this fight was originally booked back in November, McKinney opened as the favorite but the odds closed as a pick’em. DraftKings had McKinney priced at $8,400 and Ziam at $7,800. Now just three months later, Ziam opened as the favorite and the pricing has been completely reversed where Ziam is $8,400 and McKinney is $7,800.
Ziam is a one-dimensional low-volume striker who has yet to be involved in a DFS relevant fight. After originally opening as the dog in this matchup when it was scheduled back in November, the line has flipped to him being the favorite, thus increasing his DFS price tag. While he’s yet to show any sort of DFS ceiling, that price increase should lower his ownership and makes him more interesting as a leverage play in tournaments off of the popular McKinney. The only way he can score well is with an early finish, and based on his lack of striking volume and takedowns, it will likely need to come in the first two rounds. McKinney is an aggressive fighter, riding high following a seven second KO in his UFC debut. There’s certainly a real chance that he gets overly aggressive and walks into something, being that Ziam is a crisp striker. Just keep in mind it’s been almost four years since Ziam knocked anybody out and all three of his UFC fights have ended in low-volume decisions. The odds imply Ziam has a 53% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
McKinney is coming off about the best UFC debut you could ask for as he landed a seven second R1 KO and has now knocked out four straight opponents in a combined 112 seconds. That most recent KO was good for 127 points on DraftKings with the help of the Quick-Win bonus, which should have the field chasing his boxscore. He now gets a tough matchup against the hyper-defensive Fares Ziam, who has never been knocked out and has fought to three straight low-volume decisions. There are a wide range of outcomes here as it’s far from a favorable matchup, which makes it a trickier spot to determine your DFS exposure. McKinney has a background in wrestling to go along with his explosive knockout abilities, so he has the ability to win fights both on the feet and the mat. However, he’s been content with relying on his striking as of recently. Priced at just $7,800 and with all 11 of his career wins coming early, it’s hard to see him not returning value with a win, but Ziam has a knack for slowing down fights and ruining them for DFS. Whether or not he can do that against an explosive fighter like McKinney remains to be seen. With McKinney projected to be very popular despite being in a tough matchup to score well, this definitely isn’t a spot you want to be over the field on in tournaments, but you also can’t comfortably fade McKinney. Overall, this is a tricky fight to navigate, but the leverage move is to be over the field on Ziam and under on McKinney. The odds imply McKinney has a 47% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Josiane Nunes
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Nunes had been scheduled to face Wu Yanan here, but Yanan withdrew due to a torn MCL. Then Nunes was matched up with Jennifer Gonzalez Araneda, but she also withdrew and Pascual was announced as the replacement on February 18th, just eight days out.
Making her second UFC appearance on a seven fight winning streak with six straight KOs, Nunes knocked out Bea Malecki late in the first round of her August 2021 UFC debut. Nunes wasted no time getting started in that fight as she outlanded Malecki 52-35 in significant strikes in less than five minutes of action, despite being on the wrong end of a 7” height and reach differential. Nunes constantly pressured Malecki as she forced her to retreat up against the cage as Nunes threw flurries of punches at her.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Nunes’ only career loss came in her second pro fight back in a 2013 decision against the incredibly durable Taila Santos, who has been looking great lately in the UFC. Seven of Nunes’ eight wins have come by KO, with three ending in round one and four coming in round two. However, outside of facing Taila Santos early in her career, Nunes went up against a lot of suspect competition prior to joining the UFC, so we should take some of her earlier results with a grain of salt.
A pure striker, Nunes doesn't offer much of anything when it comes to grappling, and her best submission defense is the fact that she doesn’t have a neck to choke. Her takedown defense looked unimpressive on the regional scene, but no takedowns were attempted in her UFC debut.
Despite being just 5’2”, Nunes has fought as high as 154 lb in the past. However, her last four matches have all been down at 135 lb. Even at 135 lb, she’s still seriously undersized for the division, and now she’ll actually be moving back up to 145 lb, where she hasn’t competed at since 2019 when she landed a second round KO.
Ramona Pascual
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Stepping into her UFC debut on just eight days’ notice, Pascual is on a four fight winning streak with first round finishes in her last three matches. That’s certainly impressive on paper, but it’s also important to understand the context surrounding those wins.
Her most recent win came just six weeks ago in an Invicta 150 lb Catchweight match against a suspect short notice replacement with just two pro fights on her record. The fight lasted just 60 seconds and not very much happened. As soon as Pascual connected with anything, her opponent looked overwhelmed after catching a knee to the body and quickly dropped to the mat and the fight was stopped. Nothing Pascual threw looked to have much force behind it and despite the speed of the finish it wasn’t overly impressive.
Just prior to that win, Pascual took on an opponent who was making her pro debut and fighting up a weight class at 145 lb. The fight ended up on the mat in the opening seconds after Pascual started throwing some knees, her go to move. From that point on, she worked her way towards a finish after escaping a heel hook. She initially looked to finish it with ground and pound from a crucifix position, but ultimately got it done with a keylock submission. Pascual’s two previous wins on her current four fight streak came against an opponent who has been finished in the first round in three of her last four fights and another opponent making her pro debut. Overall, she’s yet to defeat anyone with much experience and the only other two wins of her career came against opponents who are currently 0-3 and 0-4.
Now 6-2 as a pro, Pascual has four wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and one two-round decision victory. Of her two losses, she’s been knocked out once in the second round and submitted another time in round three. The only time she’s required the judges came in a two-round fight, so she’s never been in a match that lasted longer than 10 minutes. She’s fought anywhere from 134 lb to 150 lb in the past, with her two losses coming at a 141 lb Catchweight and 145 lb. Pascual said she plans on dropping back down to 135 lb following this fight.
Originally from Hong Kong and with a rugby and Muay Thai background, Pascual has been training out of Syndicate MMA since last March when she moved to Vegas.
Fight Prediction:
Pascual will have a 5” height advantage, but Nunes will have a 1” reach advantage.
Pascual is most effective throwing knees out of the Muay Thai clinch or in top position on the mat, and doesn't have great hands. If Nunes can make this a boxing match then she should be able to run away with it, but she’ll need to be careful to avoid the knees of Pascual coming back at her. Pascual’s best chance to pull off the upset will be to get the fight to the ground, as Nunes is terrible off her back. However, Pascual’s takedown accuracy has looked pretty poor as she tends to telegraph her attempts, so it may be tough for her to get the fight there. We expect to see Nunes overwhelm Pascual in the striking exchanges on the feet and as long as she can stay upright we pick her to land a knockout in the first two rounds, and we’ll say it comes in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Nunes R2 Win” at +470.
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DFS Implications:
Nunes’ brawling fighting style lends itself well towards DFS production, but she doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling. That leaves her reliant on landing a finish at her expensive price tag, as even a high volume decision win likely wouldn’t score quite enough to return value unless it includes multiple knockdowns. All seven of Nunes’ finishes have come in the first two rounds and she hasn’t seen the third round since 2015 in her third pro fight. If she does get the finish, there’s a really good chance it comes in the opening 10 minutes with a good amount of striking behind it. Supporting that idea, her recent R1 KO scored 121 DraftKings points. Coming off a slate-breaking score and with the second highest finishing chances on the slate, we do expect Nunes to be very popular, and considering she has less than one round of UFC experience, that does present some interesting leverage opportunities. With that said, going against a short notice replacement in their UFC debut often results in massive scoring performances, and Nunes has a huge ceiling here. The odds imply she has a 63% chance to win, a 51% chance to get a finish, and a slate-leading 28% chance it comes in R1.
The path to victory appears pretty clear for Pascual in this spot. She’ll either need to finish Nunes with knees out of the Muay Thai clinch or more likely get the fight to the ground and look to finish it with ground and pound or through a submission. Pascual is highly unlikely to outland her way to victory, so with her only options being a finish or a grappling heavy attack, we would expect her to score well if she is able to pull off the upset. While we haven’t been overly impressed by anything we’ve seen out of Pascual, Nunes is helpless off her back so if Pascual is able to get the fight to the mat then it’s entirely possible she can find a finish or at the very least steal a round. Pascual should also be low owned and is a solid leverage play off of Nunes. The odds imply Pascual has a 37% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Ignacio Bahamondes
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off a highlight reel KO in the closing seconds of his first UFC win, Bahamondes knocked Roosevelt Roberts out cold with just five seconds remaining on the clock as he landed a perfect spinning wheel kick. Bahamondes was already running away with the fight, as he led in significant strikes 105-55 and in total strikes 124-65, while also stuffing all 12 of Roberts’ takedown attempts. That finish was just an exclamation mark on an impressive striking performance.
Prior to that win, Bahamondes lost a high-volume split decision to UFC veteran John Makdessi. Bahamondes looked to be in trouble early in the fight but was able to recover and make it to the judges. Makdessi finished ahead in significant strikes 124-112 and in total strikes 145-117. While Bahamondes doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling, he did try to at least mix it up with four takedown attempts in the fight, however he missed on all four. Bahamondes missed weight by a little less than a pound for that fight.
While his UFC debut was down at 155 lb, Bahamondes’ previous two fights to that had both been up at 170 lb. Seemingly a tweener, Bahamondes could be too tall for the 155 lb division, but is too skinny for the 170 lb weight class. He has bounced between the two weight classes throughout his career, going 6-2 at 170 lb, with five wins by KO (four in R1) and one by decision. Both of the early losses in his career were by round one submission at 170 lb. He’s also gone 6-2 at 155 lb, with four KOs (2 in R1, 1 in R2 & 1 in R3) and two decision wins. Both of his losses at 155 lb ended in decisions. He seems like he wants to stay at 155 lb for the time being and we’ve seen him show up light for 170 lb fights, while missing the mark more than once trying to get down to 155 lb.
Bahamondes was coming down from 170 lb for his debut, but looked to be in better physical shape for his second UFC fight. He also came in far less wide-eyed and sharper with his striking. Still just 24 years old, he’s at a stage in his career where we could see major improvements between every fight.
Born into fighting, Bahamondes’s father owns a martial arts school in Chile, but Bahamondes came to the United States to pursue his UFC dream at just 16 years old. Bahamondes punched his ticket to the UFC with a R2 KO win on DWCS back in November 2020, against a portly Edson Gomez who missed weight for the fight, and not in an “oh maybe that’s an advantage” type of way. Dude was plump. Already way ahead on strikes, Bahamondes kicked Gomez in the chin with a straight shot up the middle that crumpled Gomez like a wet paper bag.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Bahamondes has won 8 of his last 10 fights, with the two losses both ending in decisions. He’s a pure striker, and doesn’t appear to have any sort of grappling skills. That didn’t matter in his debut as he went against a kickboxer in Makdessi, but will surely give him trouble at times moving forward.
At 6’3” Bahamondes’ is extremely tall for the division and has a unique combination of speed and length. He loves to throw a ton of kicks to maximize his length and his last two wins both came by head kick KOs in the later rounds.
Rong Zhu
rd UFC Fight (1-1)Also coming off a third round KO/TKO finish to notch his first UFC win, Rong defeated short notice replacement and UFC newcomer Brandon Jenkins, who was overall unimpressive in his UFC debut. Rong controlled the fight in all facets as he landed 6 of his takedown attempts with nine and a half minutes of control time, while also leading in significant strikes 86-41 and in total strikes 134-67. He also notched a knockdown in the first round as he filled up the stat sheet. It was a well rounded impressive performance, just keep in mind it came against a lower level opponent who took the fight on just a few days’ notice. Rong missed weight by 2 lb for that fight, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Just prior to the impressive win in his second UFC fight, Rong lost his debut as a big favorite against Kazula Vargas, who outlanded Rong 96-42 in significant strikes and 111-49 in total strikes. Rong landed three of his four takedown attempts, while Vargas went 0 for 1, but Vargas nearly submitted Rong early in the second round with a guillotine choke.
Rong came into his debut on a 10 fight winning streak, with nine of those wins coming early, including four in the first round. However, he had been fighting a lot of questionable competition so those results should be scrutinized. With that said, despite being just 21 years old he’s now 18-4 as a pro, with only two of those fights going the distance (1-1). He has 12 wins by KO, four by submission, one by decision, and one by DQ. Nine of his finishes have come in the first round, but his last two ended in third round TKOs. Prior to losing a decision in his UFC debut, all three of his career losses had come by first round submission, although all of those occurred in 2018 or earlier as he hasn’t been submitted in his last 12 fights.
Despite fighting at 140 lb early in his career, Rong doesn’t look to be undersized for the 155 lb weight class. Incredibly, he turned pro at just 16 years old, so it makes sense he would grow into a higher weight class as his career progressed. He’s had more pro fights than birthdays, which is insane considering he came into the UFC as the youngest fighter on the UFC roster.
UPDATE: Rong missed weight by 4 lb!
Fight Prediction:
Bahamondes will have a massive 6” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
Rong has shown a willingness to wrestle, but we haven’t seen any sort of impressive submission skills out of him yet, which would be the path of least resistance to defeating Bahamondes. Both guys are capable strikers, but Bahamondes looks to have both the power and speed advantages. He’ll also be displaying a wider arsenal of attacks along with possessing the reach advantage. That will make it tougher for Rong to win a striking battle, and neither one of these two have ever been knocked out. That likely leaves Rong reliant on his grappling to slow Bahamondes down, and we just saw Roosevelt Roberts (29% career takedown accuracy) go 0 for 12 on his takedown attempts against Bahamondes in their recent match. Rong (75% career takedown accuracy) has been far more efficient with his attempts in his two UFC fights, but trying to take down a much taller opponent can often be challenging. However, if he can get the fight to the ground he should have a massive advantage on the mat and we could see him get a finish or do enough to win a decision. Overall, Rong’s chances of pulling off the upset appear directly tied to his ability to land takedowns. If it stays on the feet we like Bahamondes to either land another knockout, likely in the later rounds, or outstrike his way to a decision win, which is the most likely outcome according to the odds. As long as Bahamondes can stay off his back, we expect him to win this with either another late KO or in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Bahamondes Wins by KO” at +240.
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DFS Implications:
Bahamondes is a one-dimensional striker, which makes it tougher for him to score well in DFS as it leaves him reliant on landing finishes to score well. Had his recent R3 KO win lasted another five seconds instead of him landing a late spinning wheel kick KO, he would have scored just 79 DraftKings points and 83 points on FanDuel. In his previous high-volume decision loss he scored just 48 DraftKings points, so even if the decision had gone his way it still would have only totaled 78 points. It’s really hard to see him returning value here at his high price tag unless he lands a knockout. Working against him, Rong has never been knocked out in 22 pro fights. Just keep in mind that Bahamondes is likely the best striker Rong has faced, and everyone hasn’t been knocked out until they have. Working in Bahamondes’ favor, he lands a ton of striking volume, as he averaged 7.56 SSL/min in his first two UFC fights. If he does land an early knockout, he has the potential to put up a big score. The odds imply Bahamondes has a 66% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Rong broke the slate in his last outing as he scored 146 points on DraftKings and 150 points on FanDuel. Just keep in mind that it came against a low-level, short notice replacement who was making their UFC debut on just a few days’ notice. Now he’ll face a much more dangerous striker, who showed the ability to defend takedowns in his last fight. Rong will likely need to rely on his grappling to win this fight, as that’s where he’ll have the advantage. If he does win, it will likely come from either a grappling heavy decision or a finish, both of which should score well and likely return value at his cheap price. While he hasn’t looked exceptionally explosive or dangerous in his two UFC fights, 17 of his 18 career wins have come early, and he’s shown the ability to put opponents away up until this point in his career. Just keep in mind, all but one of those finishes came against lower level opponents on the regional scene. Overall, this should be an uptempo fight with solid scoring potential on both sides. The odds imply Rong has a 34% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Gregory Rodrigues
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Entering this fight on a four fight winning streak and 2-0 in the UFC, Rodrigues has won 10 of his last 11 fights with his lone loss over that stretch coming in a 2020 R1 KO on DWCS against Jordan Williams who is now 0-3 in the UFC. While that blip on the radar is a little concerning, it just shows that anything can happen in a fight and supports the idea that Rodrigues doesn’t have the best chin.
In his most recent fight, Rodrigues became the first fighter to ever knock out Jun Yong Park, which came midway through the second round in a wild back and forth finishing sequence. Rodrigues took Park down midway through the first round and controlled him on the mat for the remainder of the round. Park came out in round two looking to land a knockout as we saw a crazy early exchange with Park connecting on several heavy shots. At that point Rodrigues looked to get the fight back to the ground but almost got his neck wrapped up by Park before the two returned to their feet and resumed swinging. Rodrigues then again looked to return the fight to the mat and did so with a beautiful judo throw. However, Park returned to his feet as Rodrigues looked to be slowing down and struggled to control him on the ground. The two stood and traded for the next 30 seconds and Rodrigues looked to be in danger, but Park was also slowing down and Rodrigues flipped the script with a big right hand that had Park stumbling backwards. The fight was quickly stopped as Rodrigues continued to land strikes against the dazed Park. Both guys looked exhausted by the end and Rodrigues came dangerously close to getting finished just before he was able to turn the tides and land a finish of his own.
Now 11-3 as a pro, only 3 of Rodrigues’ 14 fights have required the judges and he was also knocked out in the first round of his 2014 pro debut. His third pro loss came in a 2015 decision in his third pro fight. Nine of his 11 wins have come early, with five KOs and four submissions. Four of his first five finishes came by submission, split across the first two rounds, while five of his last six finishes have come by KO, including three in round one and two in round two. Two of his last three early wins have notably come by round two KO, and five of his last six fights have ended in knockouts (4-1). The only time he’s been to the judges since 2019 was victory in his short notice UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic.
In that fight, Rodrigues finished ahead in significant strikes 71-37 and in total strikes 73-46. Rodrigues also landed three takedowns on five attempts, while Dusko went 0 for 4. However, Rodrigues was never able to do anything with the takedowns and the control time was essentially identical between the two fighters with 85 seconds for Rodrigues and 86 seconds for Dusko. That win came just two weeks after Rodrigues won the vacant LFA Middleweight belt with a round one KO.
Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt and 8-time National BJJ Champion. He has solid power, but isn’t necessarily the quickest. He also looks pretty hittable. With his accomplished BJJ background, he’s always a threat on the mat, but also hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018. Still just 30 years old, Rodrigues looks like he’s about 50, but we’ll take his word for it.
Armen Petrosyan
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a first round KO win on DWCS last October, all seven of Petrosyan’s career fights have ended in knockouts (6-1), as he’s only been to the third round once. His last three fights have ended in round one (2-1), with two of those taking 63 seconds or less. His last five fights have all been at 205 lb, after his first two pro fights took place at 185 lb, where his UFC debut will also be. He hasn’t competed down at 185 lb since 2019, so it will be important to monitor him closely at weigh-ins. A black belt in karate, Petrosyan is a Russian karate, K-1, and Muay Thai champion, as well being a world champion in Muay Thai. He’s a pure striker that offers absolutely nothing in terms of grappling. It’s truly remarkable just how bad his takedown defense is.
In his recent DWCS win, Petrosyan was taken down three times on five attempts in a fight that only lasted four and a half minutes. He was also controlled for three and half minutes in the match before finally getting a chance to show off his striking in open space, where he landed several heavy, lead left kicks and punches, knocking his opponent out cold in the final minute of the first round.
In his earlier career fights, we saw Petrosyan get taken down time and time again, yet somehow he was consistently able to get into open space at some point and quickly land a knockout. With that said, he hasn’t faced much in terms of competition and a high-level grappler should be able to tie him up with ease on the mat.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Rodrigues will have a 4” reach advantage.
This looks like a prime opportunity for Rodrigues to showcase his grappling and he would have to be a fool to ignore that. While he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018, we fully expect him to dominate this fight on the mat and while a ground and pound finish is always possible, a submission appears more likely against an opponent with no grappling skills. If Rodrigues forgets he’s a world class grappler and keeps the fight standing, then all bets are off as Petrosyan is a dangerous striker. However, we fully expect Rodrigues to rely on his grappling to win this fight on the ground in the opening two rounds, with it most likely ending in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Rodrigues Wins by Submission” at +460.
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DFS Implications:
Rodrigues is coming off a massive 120 point DraftKings performance in a crazy R2 KO win. He was a popular play on that slate and we expect him to again be popular here. It’s hard to see him failing to score well unless he gets knocked out, as he’ll have a massive grappling advantage that should allow him to do whatever he wants on the ground. Petrosyan is a one-dimensional striker who gets taken down with ease, while Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt and an 8-time national BJJ champion, making this a prime spot for Rodrigues to put on a massive grappling clinic. We’d be shocked to see this fight go the distance and the odds agree, installing it as the most likely fight on the slate to end early. While we’re not thrilled about how popular Rodrigues should be, his upside is undeniable and this looks like a smash spot for him as long as he doesn’t get knocked out before he can get the fight to the ground. The odds imply Rodrigues has a 59% chance to win, a 45% chance to get a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Petrosyan is a black belt in karate and a K-1 and Muay Thai champion, and his lone path to victory is landing an early knockout. He’s clueless when it comes to grappling and this matchup looks absolutely terrible for him. With that said, we see fighters make stupid decisions all the time, so if Rodrigues is cavalier about getting this fight to the ground than Petrosyan could have an opportunity to land a knockout. Based on how likely it is that this fight ends early, it makes sense to hedge some of your Rodrigues exposure with Petrosyan, just keep in mind we fully expect him to get submitted early in this match. The odds imply Petrosyan has a 41% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Arman Tsarukyan
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Coming off his first early win in the UFC, Tsarukyan knocked out Christos Giagos 129 seconds into the first round of his last fight. Giagos landed just a single significant strike in the fight, while Tsarukyan landed 22.
Prior to that knockout, Tsarukyan put on a dominating grappling performance against Matt Frevola, where Tsarukyan landed 10 takedowns on 12 attempts with nearly eight and a half minutes of control time. Tsarukyan also led in significant strikes 50-16 and in total strikes 103-51. Frevola went 0 for 2 on his own takedowns and had just two seconds of control time. Tsarukyan had originally been scheduled to face pure power striker Nasrat Haqparast in that spot, but both Haqparast and Frevola’s opponent Azaitar withdrew so they ended up facing each other instead on just a day’s notice.
That was Tsarukyan’s third straight decision win after he lost his 2019 UFC debut in just about the toughest matchup you could ask for in your first fight when he squared off against Islam Makhachev. Tsarukyan has impressively won 16 of his last 17 fights with the one exception coming in his debut against Makhachev. Tsarukyan is a solid striker and grappler, as well as being a smart fighter who generally avoids putting himself in dangerous situations. Slower paced fights can occur when facing tougher competition, but as we saw against Frevola, Tsarukyan is willing to turn it on at times when he has the advantage.
Now 17-2 as a pro, his only other career loss beside the decision loss in his UFC debut was a 2015 R1 KO in his second pro fight when he was just 19 years old. Six of his wins have come by KO, five ended in submissions, and another six have gone the distance. Prior to his recent first round knockout victory, he has seen the third round in nine straight fights, with seven of those going the distance and two ending in third round KO wins. Eight of his 11 early wins notably came in his first nine pro fights and his last three finishes have all come by KO.
Tsarukyan is a bright up and coming prospect who’s still just 25 years old and appears to be constantly improving. He missed weight by a pound for his second most recent fight, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Joel Alvarez
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Fresh off the most impressive win of his career, Alvarez showed improved striking as he landed a R1 TKO against Thiago Moises, who had previously only been finished once in his career, which came in a R4 rear-naked choke against Islam Makhachev in his previous fight. Alvarez handed Moises his first KO/TKO loss, as he utilized his massive size advantage to attack him with a combination of kicks, knees, punches, and elbows to force an early stoppage midway through the first round. Alvarez outlanded Moises 44-11 in striking in a fight that lasted just a tick over three minutes with neither fighter attempting a takedown.
Alvarez notably missed weight by 1.5 lb for that fight which just further accentuated the size difference, as Alvarez was 6” taller and had a 7” longer reach. That was Alvarez’s second straight fight where he missed weight after he came in 3.5 lb over the limit in his previous match. At 6’3” it’s sort of amazing that Alvarez can even get down to 155 lb, and you would think if he misses for a third straight time there will be some pressure put on him to consider moving up a weight class. If not, opponents may stop accepting fights with Alvarez following weight misses as he appears to be skirting the rules of the weight class in the first place.
Now on a four fight winning streak with all four wins coming in eight minutes or less. the last three ending in 181 seconds or fewer, Alvarez bounced back well from a decision loss in his UFC debut against a really tough Damir Ismagulov, who’s on an 18 fight winning streak. Alvarez is 19-2 as a pro, with all 19 wins coming early, including three wins by KO and 16 submissions. Aside from the decision loss in his UFC debut, the only other time Alvarez has been defeated came in a 2015 R1 KO in his sixth pro fight. He’s won 14 of his last 15 fights with 11 of those wins coming in the first round. Overall, 13 of his wins have come in round one, five have ended in round two, and just one has occurred in round three. Incredibly, he’s only been past the midway mark of the second round twice in his career and only once in his last 16 fights, with 18 of his 19 career wins coming in a round and a half or less.
While Alvarez’s last win came against a solid opponent, his three previous victories all came against fighters who have lost three of their last four fights, so we probably shouldn’t crown this guy just yet. Although Alvarez showed improved striking and the ability to finish fights on the feet in his last match, that was just the third win by KO/TKO in his career as he’s generally been a defensive submission ninja, with 16 of his 19 career wins coming via submission. He has two wins by armbar, four by guillotine choke, seven triangle chokes, one brabo choke, and two anaconda chokes. He’s extremely dangerous on his back and out of his full guard.
Fight Prediction:
Alvarez will have a massive 8” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
It’s amazing how big of a difference one fight can make. After most of the free world backed Thiago Moises over Alvarez in his last fight, the Joel Alvarez hype train now appears to be running at full speed against a much tougher opponent in Tsarukyan. We’ve seen Tsarukyan hold his own against several dangerous submission threats since joining the UFC and he fights very intelligently. He does a good job of incorporating trips into his takedowns, which should help him to keep his neck out of harm's way against a dangerous guillotine threat like Alvarez. We expect Tsarukyan to come in with a smart and cautious approach where he looks to land calculated strikes and takedowns and force this fight into the later rounds, beyond where Alvarez has found all of his success in the opening round and a half. We don’t fully know what to expect out of Alvarez’s gas tank in the back half of a fight as it’s quite rare for him to get there. The only recent example to look at was in his UFC debut where he lost a low-volume decision with no takedowns attempted. Not much happened in that fight, so it’s hard to really evaluate Alvarez’s cardio, but his output did wane as the fight went on. Nevertheless, based on the fact that he’s only been to the third round twice in 21 pro fights, there’s a decent chance we see him begin to gas out late in this fight if it makes it that far. That increases the chances for a late finish by Tsarukyan and also increases his likelihood of getting the nod in a decision and we expect this fight to end in either a Tsarukyan R3 KO or a decision victory.
Our favorite bet here is “Tsarukyan R3 or Decision” at +140.
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DFS Implications:
After failing to score well in the first two wins of his UFC career, Tsarukyan exploded with 110 and 126 points in his last two fights. He was a massive favorite in both of those matches (-700 & -850) and certainly looked the part. Now, he gets a tougher matchup where he won’t just be able to steamroll his way through the competition and we expect his scoring will likely come back down to earth. That’s not to say he can’t control Alvarez on the mat for extended periods of time and still score decently, but he’ll have to be hyper aware of every position to remain out of danger. Every time he takes this fight to the ground he’ll also need to worry about immediately defending submission attempts. We expect him to be a little more calculated with his approach, trying to turn this into a slower paced affair with the goal of outlasting Alvarez. If our suspicions come to fruition then this fight will likely disappoint when it comes to DFS production, while also carrying a ton of ownership. That creates the potential for a massive leverage opportunity as both fighters project to be pretty highly owned. It’s still entirely possible that Tsarukyan has enough output to score well, especially if he can land a late finish, but seeing a result that more closely matches his first two UFC wins, which scored 82 and 86 DraftKings points, is more of what we’re expecting. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Alvarez’s path to success is pretty simple. If he gets a finish, he’ll almost certainly end up in tournament winning lineups at his cheap price tag, and if he doesn't, he won’t. We don’t see him winning a decision here, but sure, it’s possible he could still score enough to be a value play if he did. Just keep in mind he’s a defensive grappler and not only has he never landed a takedown in the UFC, he hasn’t even attempted one. His scoring comes entirely from his striking and finishing ability as he only averages 3.99 SSL/min. Further hurting his outlook, this is one of the toughest matchups he could ask for at this stage in his career, as the only time Tsarukyan has ever been finished was all the way back in his second pro fight in 2015. Not only will Alvarez be a popular DFS play, he also has his toughest matchup to date and opened as a large underdog before he was bet down by the public. Even if he does get a finish, due to his defensive grappling style, three of his four UFC finishes have scored 97 or fewer DraftKings points. While it’s hard to see that getting left out at his cheap price, it’s certainly not impossible if we see a high scoring slate with multiple underdogs scoring well. This is a no-brainer fade spot in tournaments with a ton of leverage to be gained. The odds imply he has a 33% chance to win, a 22% chance it comes early, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Ji Yeon Kim
8th UFC Fight (3-4)Desperate for a win here, Kim has lost three of her last four fights. Those losses all ended in decisions against other tough strikers in Molly McCann, Alexa Grasso, and Antonina Shevchenko. Kim also lost her 2017 UFC debut in a decision, but bounced back with a pair of split-decision wins in her next two fights. Her only UFC fight to end early was a 2019 R2 KO win over Nadia Kassem, who finished 1-2 in the UFC with a pair of early losses and never fought again following the loss to Kim. Eight of Kim’s last 10 fights have gone the distance, with the two exceptions being that 2019 R2 KO win in the UFC and a 2016 R2 submission victory in her last fight before joining the UFC.
In her last fight, both set career highs for total strikes landed (122) and absorbed (127) as Kim duked it out with “Meatball” Molly McCann for 15 minutes. McCann was also able to take Kim down twice on three attempts, while Kim failed on both of her takedown attempts, which were just the second and third attempts of her UFC career. That will be something to keep an eye on as she hadn’t attempted a takedown in her previous five fights. McCann went on to win a unanimous 29-28 decision in the high-paced brawl.
Now 9-4-2 as a pro, Kim has two wins by KO, three by submission, and four by decision. All four of her losses have also gone the distance as she’s never been finished. The first two fights of her pro career ended in draws, but those were two round matches. Kim started her career at 135 lb before moving down to 125 lb in 2018 after losing her 2017 UFC debut.
Almost exclusively a striker up to this point in her career, Kim has yet to land a takedown in her seven UFC fights on just three attempts. She lands above average striking volume at 5.04 SSL/min, but absorbs even more at 5.47 SSA/min. She has a massive 72” for her height, which is one of her biggest assets when it comes to striking.
Priscila Cachoeira
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Also in need of a win, Cachoeira is just 2-4 in the UFC and was given a long leash just to hang around after starting off 0-3. To her credit, she’s knocked out two of her last three opponents following an 0-3 start, but those finishes came against a pair of struggling opponents. The first was against Shana Dobson, who finished her UFC career 2-4, with losses in four of her last five fights. The more recent win came against Gina Mazany, who’s currently 2-5 in the UFC, with four of those losses coming early.
Following a comeback win over Mazany where Cachoeira was controlled on the mat for the entire first half of the fight, Cachoeira again showed off her grappling ineptitude as she was submitted in the first round by Gillian Robertson. Cachoeira was able to fend off the first few takedown attempts from Robertson, but once Robertson did finally get her down she was able to dominate her on the ground and work her way towards a last second submission as the first round ended. Cachoeira attempted multiple dirty eye-gouges as she tried to scratch and claw her way out of the submission, but her attempts were futile.
Cachoeira hasn’t been past the second round in four of her six UFC matches including her last three fights, after she fought to a pair of decisions just before the string of finishes. She was thrown straight into the fire in her UFC debut when she was matched up against Valentina Shevchenko. Shevchenko absolutely dominated her for two rounds, elbowing her face through the mat before submitting Cachoeira late in the second round. She now holds a 10-4 pro record, with six KOs and four decision wins. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice and has lost two decisions.
Plagued by fight cancellations throughout her career, Cachoeira has dropped out of three of her last six scheduled fights as she routinely struggles on the scales or with various other issues. She missed weight by 3 lb for her last fight, making her one to keep an eye on during weigh-ins. Cachoeira fought some at 135 lb earlier in her career, but has been down at 125 lb since 2017, which helps to explain why she struggles to hit the 125 mark.
Appropriately nicknamed “Zombie Girl”, Cachoeira will gladly push forward with her hands low, encouraging high-volume firefights. She trains with Jessica Andrade so her brawling approach shouldn’t come as a surprise. She absorbs a ton of strikes to try and land her own bombs and averages 6.97 SSA/min. In her two UFC fights to go the distance, her opponents landed 107 and 111 significant strikes. With no grappling or striking defense, her game plan is always to simply come in swinging and hope she knocks her opponent out. Her fan-friendly fighting style is probably why the UFC lets her stick around even after starting out 0-3.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Kim will have a 7” reach advantage.
Cachoeira’s fights are always entertaining brawls, and now she gets a dance partner who should be more than willing to stand and trade than her other recent opponents have been. Neither Kim nor Cachoeira have ever landed a takedown in the UFC, and while there’s a slight chance Kim could look to capitalize on Cachoeira’s non-existent grappling defense, we’d be very surprised to see Cachoeira land a takedown. It’s more likely this plays out entirely on the feet as a high-volume banger. Kim will have a noticeable reach advantage, while Cachoeira is the more powerful striker. While neither fighter has ever been knocked out, Cachoeira is the more likely of the two to finish things on the feet. If Kim does opt to take the fight to the ground, Cachoeira has been helpless off her back and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Kim get a submission. Although she has three submission wins in her career, she hasn’t landed a takedown in her seven UFC fights and has only attempted three. That’s still a far less likely outcome, but certainly within the realm of possibility. Given the lack of grappling and how durable these two have both been, a high-volume decision is still the most likely outcome, but there are definitely a few ways this fight could go. We see Kim landing more volume, but we pick Cachoeira to land the bigger shots, which could make it closer for the judges than the numbers may indicate. Overall, we pick Kim to get the nod here in a decision victory.
Our favorite bet here is “Kim Wins by Decision” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Kim comes in desperate for a win after losing 3 of her last 4 fights and this looks like a great bounce back spot for her. She should be able to land a ton of striking volume as Cachoeira walks into punches, and with a 7” reach advantage will have no choice but to walk through punches to try and get in range to land her own damage. Neither fighter has ever been knocked out, so it won’t be surprising to see it go the distance, but it’s also possible Kim looks to capitalize on Cachoeira’s non-existent grappling defense and take this fight to the ground. While Kim doesn’t have a takedown in her seven UFC fights, she did attempt two in her last match and has three submission wins on her record prior to joining the UFC. Even if it does remain entirely on the feet, Kim could land a silly number of significant strikes and still put up a decent score on volume alone, especially if she can tack on a knockdown. With just one decent DraftKings score in seven UFC fights, we expect Kim to be lower owned with the field looking to rummage through the more expensive options on the slate. She looks like a great tournament play and overall this is a fight we’re looking to target. The odds imply Kim has a 62% to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Cachoeira’s brawling fight-style is great for DFS as she’s constantly forcing the action and either looking for knockouts or turtling off her back. Her two UFC wins have returned DraftKings scores of 87 and 128. She was unfortunate not to get a knockdown in her most recent win or else it would have scored better. She was also controlled on the mat for the majority of the fight before landing the finish, so it was an all around worst case scenario for her. In her four UFC losses, her opponents have scored 117, 102, 91, and 160 DraftKings points and 130, 114, 106, and 154 points on FanDuel. Basically, whoever wins her fights is going to score well. Four of her six UFC fights have ended in the opening two rounds, but her opponents still scored well in her two decision losses. We’re always looking to target both sides of her fights in DFS and this matchup is no different. While this bout is less likely to end earlier than Cachoeira’s last few matches, we should see a ton of striking volume that will give the winner a decent floor even in a decision. The odds imply Cachoeira has a 38% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #2
Misha Cirkunov
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Cirkunov had been scheduled to face Makhmud Muradov here, but Muradov withdrew and Turman was announced as the replacement on January 28th. That came just a week after Turman had been scheduled to face Rodolfo Vieira on January 22nd, but Vieira withdrew due to medical reasons.
Cirkunov dropped down to 185 lb for the first time in his last fight and went on to lose a split-decision against Krzysztof Jotko. The drop in weight didn’t do Cirkunov any favors as he appeared to lose his explosive grappling power, while failing to gain any speed or quickness at the lighter weight class. The match ended with the two fighters dead even in significant strikes at 41 and essentially even in total strikes with Jotko ahead 56-55. Cirkunov landed just 5 of his 17 takedown attempts, with all five of those coming in the third round. However, that still wasn’t enough for Chris Lee to give him the round on the pivotal score card. Cirkunov also led in control time with 4:06-0:44. Overal,l it was a boring, uneventful fight, and Cirkunov underwhelmed in his Middleweight debut.
Now 34 years old and on a two fight losing streak, going just 2-5 in his last seven fights, Cirkunov hasn’t won a fight since 2019 and has just two victories dating back to 2016. His latest act of desperation, a move down to 185 lb, looked to be the last card he had left to play, and the end of his career is likely near. There’s always a slight chance he’ll look better in his second appearance at 185 lb than his first, but we’re not overly optimistic.
Prior to his recent decision loss, Cirkunov hadn’t been out of the first round in seven straight fights, with all seven of those ending in either knockout losses (4) or submission wins (3). He had also gone 15 straight fights without going to a decision, with 13 of those ending in round one. Keep in mind, those were all up at 205 lb, where he was dealing with slightly slower and more powerful opponents. It wouldn’t be surprising if his chin held up a little better at 185 lb depending on how tough the weight cut is for him.
Now 15-7 as a pro, Cirkunov has five wins by KO, eight by submission, and two by decision. Eleven of those 13 finishes occurred in round one, another ended in round two, and the final one came in round three. He’s been finished in six of his seven pro losses, with four KOs and two submissions. The submission losses came in a 2010 R2 armbar in his second pro fight and a 2012 R1 heel hook in his seventh pro fight. His last four early losses have all ended in round one knockouts in his last seven fights.
Prior to his recent pair of losses, Cirkunov didn’t fight at all in 2020 after suffering a torn bicep that forced him into an 18 month layoff following an impressive first round submission win over a tough Jimmy Crute. A BJJ black belt with a background in Judo, Greco-Roman wrestling, and freestyle wrestling, Cirkunov is basically a one-dimensional grappler who has a suspect chin that makes trading on the feet a risky endeavor. You also have to question his toughness and heart as he’s often covered up and simply admitted defeat at the first signs of adversity.
Overall, Cirkunov doesn’t appear to have much left in the tank, but working in his favor, he now gets the easiest opponent he’s faced in a while.
Wellington Turman
6th UFC Fight (2-3)After Vieira dropped out of their January 22nd scheduled fight, Turman didn’t have to wait too long for a new matchup as this similar matchup was put together just a week later. Both Cirkunov and Vieira are powerful one-dimensional grapplers so Turman shouldn’t have had to make many changes to his preparation.
Turman kept his UFC hopes alive by narrowly defeating Sam Alvey in a split-decision in his last fight. Turman was dangerously close to extending his losing streak to three and dropping to 1-4 in the UFC. Instead, he notched his second UFC decision win, despite having two points deducted in the third round for eye pokes. Alvey was livid when the decision didn’t go his way but he never actually did anything to try and win it. Now 0-7-1 in his last eight fights, Alvey is nothing more than a punchline to a bad joke that should have been cut years ago. Turman narrowly led in significant strikes in that fight 69-68, while Alvey led in total strikes 114-75. Turman landed just 2 of his 9 takedown attempts and led in control time 2:54-1:54. The only real positive note for Turman was that his chin finally held up after he was knocked out in the first round in his two previous fights.
Those R1 KO losses came against Bruno Silva and Andrew Sanchez. Turman got back to his grappling in his most recent loss to Silva, but still succumbed to the same fate. He shot for his first takedown just 12 seconds into the first round, but failed to get Silva down to the mat with any sort of control. Turman was able to take Silva’s back at multiple points on the feet, but couldn’t lock up a submission, eventually getting too high and falling off the top as Silva leaned forward. Silva was then impressively able to knock Turman out cold from top position on the ground as he kneeled into Turman’s open guard. The fight ended with just 15 seconds remaining in the first round after Turman controlled nearly the entire period. Shockingly, Turman finished 0 for 10 on his takedown attempts and with just a single significant strike to Silva’s 19. That was the second straight fight that Turman was knocked out in the final minute of the first round, but also just the second early loss of his career.
Looking back one fight further, Turman was knocked out in the first round by wrestler Andrew Sanchez. The two grapplers came out throwing heavy shots and Sanchez handed Turman his first early loss with a late R1 KO, leaving Turman out cold on the mat. Sanchez outlanded Turman 28-21 in significant strikes and 40-26 in total strikes, while both fighters failed on their lone takedown attempts. Creating a newfound concern, Turman has now been knocked unconscious twice in the last 12 and half months. Prior to that, all three of his career losses had gone the distance.
Also a BJJ black belt, Turman is now 17-5 as a pro, with four wins by KO, seven by submission, and six by decision. However, four of his last five wins have gone the distance as he hasn’t finished anybody since 2019, before joining the UFC. His last knockout win was all the way back in 2016, coming against a stat-padding opponent who came in 0-11 and is now 0-17 with all 17 losses ending early. Honestly, we really can’t give Turman any credit for that victory. His second most recent KO win was in 2015, against an opponent who’s been finished in the first round in 5 of his last 6 fights, and his first two KO wins came within his first 4 pro fights against fighters who entered with 4-4 and 5-4 records. One of them has lost 4 of his last 5 fights and the other has lost 3 of his last 5. In reality, Turman has never knocked out a legitimate opponent and his can-crushing record should be taken with a massive grain of salt. Six of his seven submission wins have come in the first round, with the one exception occurring in the second round of his 2014 pro debut.
Following an April 2019 first round submission win, Turman made his July 2019 UFC debut against one of the most submittable opponents on the roster in Karl Roberson. Turman was able to ground Roberson four times on seven attempts and win the control time battle 6:53-5:47. However, Roberson outlanded Turman 50-25 in significant strikes and 79-38 in total strikes on his way to winning a split-decision. And as the old saying goes, if you can’t submit Karl Roberson, who can you submit?
Turman bounced back with a unanimous 30-27 decision win over Markus Perez in another grappling heavy battle. Turman landed just two takedowns on nine attempts, but stuffed Perez’s only shot, leading in control time with 6:41-1:21. The striking was almost dead even, with Perez leading in significant strikes 49-48 and Turman leading in total strikes 59-56.
Turman has gone just 8 for 36 (22%) on his takedown attempts in his five UFC fights, while defending all four of the attempts against him. He’s shot for seven or more takedowns in four of his five UFC fights, so it will be interesting to see how he approaches a fight against another grappler in Cirkunov.
Fight Prediction:
Cirkunov will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, but Turman is 9 years younger than the 34-year-old Cirkunov.
Why the UFC decided to make this the co-main event remains a mystery as we have a washed up fighter in Cirkunov taking on a fraud in Turman. These two have similar skill sets and profiles as they each rely on their grappling and both have dubious chins. It will be interesting to see if their grappling strengths of these two cancel each other out and force this into more of a low-level striking battle, but if one of them does find success on the mat it would more likely be Cirkunov based on what we’ve seen out of these two in the past. With that said, Cirkunov looked terrible in his last fight after dropping down to 185 lb and it’s hard to say if he simply went off a cliff and will continue his decline or if he simply needed time for his body to adjust to the new weight class. We’re rarely excited about older fighters dropping down a weight class, but there are obvious examples of it working out, most famously in Jose Aldo and possibly Jared Cannonier. Cirkunov will have a size advantage, and while he used to fight at 205 lb, Turman actually competed down at 170 lb until 2017 when he moved up to 185 lb. It’s possible Cirkunov can overpower Turman and find his way to a submission finish, although both guys are BJJ black belts and Turman has never been submitted. Unless Cirkunov looks dramatically different from his last fight, then we expect to see this end in a close but disappointing low-volume decision that could go either way. Based on the trajectory of their careers (consistently poor vs. downward death spiral), we’ll reluctantly give the edge to Turman to get the nod with the judges. Just keep in mind, even though neither one of these two is a good striker, because both of these two have such fragile chins, there’s still a chance one of them gets knocked out.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Cirkunov’s history of first round wins has resulted in him consistently being a DFS field favorite as he was 42% owned as a slight underdog in his last fight after being 33% owned as a slight favorite in his previous bout. He’s once again reasonably priced as a slight favorite, so it will be interesting to see how much his recent decision loss lowers his ownership. The field is notorious for going down with the ship on aging fighters and we expect most people playing DFS will overlook just how terrible Cirkunov looked in his last fight, after dropping down to 185 lb for the first time in his career. Expect Cirkunov to carry more ownership than he deserves as the field clings to his earlier career finishes at 205 lb where he consistently put up big scores. His six UFC wins have been good for 115, 111, 110, 72, 108, and 127 DraftKings points, with his one low score coming in a third round finish. Based on the fact that he attempted 17 takedowns in his last fight, he clearly still has a grappling upside, but he only landed five of those attempts and Turman has yet to be taken down in the UFC. Turman has been most vulnerable on the feet, and the same can be said about Cirkunov, but neither one of them possesses good enough striking to really capitalize on that. Ultimately, there’s a good chance this fight busts, but it’s not a comfortable fade when you have two glass chinned grapplers squaring off against one another, as there are lots of ways they could theoretically end up scoring well. The odds imply Cirkunov has a 53% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Turman has yet to score well in DFS with DraftKings totals of just 74 and 73 in his two UFC wins, which both ended in decisions. He’s primarily a grappler, but struggles to land takedowns and owns a putrid 22% career takedown accuracy. Now, he goes against another grappling specialist in Cirkunov, who owns a 70% takedown defense, so it’s even less likely Turman gets this fight to the ground. That will leave Turman more reliant on his striking, which is a scary proposition for a guy that’s been knocked out in the first round in two of his last three fights. However, his dubious chin is less likely to get exposed by Cirkunov, who hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2015 and similarly struggles with fragility. Turman has yet to face any high-level grapplers, so we don’t really know how he’ll fare, but it’s hard to see him dominating this fight on the mat. The tougher question to answer is: how will his defensive grappling hold up? He’s only had to defend four takedowns so far in the UFC to achieve his 100% defense rate, so it’s hard to be overly confident in that number, but we should learn a lot from this fight. Turman has shown that he struggles to score well in decisions and the only way we see him getting a finish here is if he catches Cirkunov with something clean on the feet. With that said, neither guy is a good striker and there’s a good chance this one ends in a disappointing decision. The odds imply Turman has a 47% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Islam Makhachev
12th UFC Fight (10-1)Islam Makhachev had been scheduled to face Beneil Dariush but Dariush withdrew due to an injury. Bobby Green was announced as the replacement on February 17th, just nine days before the event and only five days after Green last fought. Due to the short-notice nature of this fight, it will take place at a 160 lb Catchweight as opposed to 155 lb where both guys normally compete. This is the second straight time Makhachev had an opponent drop out after RDA withdrew from their October 2021 scheduled bout and Dan Hooker stepped in on a month’s notice.
Makhachev didn’t take long to get Hooker out of there, as he submitted him just 145 seconds into the fight. The fight only stayed on the feet for the first 37 seconds before Makhachev landed his first takedown attempt and only six combined significant strikes were landed, with Hooker leading 4-2. Once the fight was on the mat, Makhachev masterfully worked his way to a kimura and forced a tap midway through the round in a hyper-efficient finish.
That was Makhachev’s 9th straight UFC win as he’s now 10-1 with the organization, the only loss of his career coming in his second UFC fight in a 2015 R1 TKO. In that bout, Makhachev got clipped with a clean counter right hook as he got overly aggressive with his striking. In total, he holds a 21-1 pro record with three wins by KO, 10 by submission, and eight via decision. Six of his 10 UFC wins have come early, with five submissions and one KO. Three of those finishes ended in the first round, while he also has one UFC victory in each of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds. He’s now submitted three straight opponents in Drew Dober, Thiago Moises, and Dan Hooker, although four of his last five fights have notably made it to the third round.
A Combat Sambo world champion, Makhachev is an elite grappler who holds the all-time UFC record for the fewest significant strikes absorbed at 0.79 per minute. His 88% career takedown defense is also exceptional as he’s only been taken down twice in his career—once by Thiago Moises and another by Arman Tsarukyan.
This will be the second five-round fight of his career, with the first coming in his second most recent fight against Thiago Moises. Makhachev handed Moises the first early loss of his career and did so with a fourth round rear-naked choke. Makhachev was in no rush to finish the fight, and only attempted one takedown in the first two rounds, which he landed late in round one. However, Moises took the fight to the ground in R2 and Makhachev was able to easily reverse the position and control Moises on the mat for the remainder of the round, almost landing a last second armbar. Makhachev was able to control the fight from that point on before eventually submitting the BJJ black belt in the fourth round.
Bobby Green
19th UFC Fight (10-7-1)Stepping into what will be the first five-round UFC fight of his career on just over a week’s notice, Green seemingly has everything working against him after he just fought to a 15-minute decision two weeks ago. Green competed in three five-round fights prior to joining the UFC back in 2010 and 2011. He won two of those in the opening two rounds and won a decision in the third. Of his 42 pro fights, he’s been to the championship rounds only once.
In his recent decision win, Green put on a striking clinic as he lapped Nasrat Haqparast in significant strikes, finishing ahead 188-76 in the decision win. That’s especially impressive considering Haqparast is known for his boxing and had previously never absorbed more than 78 in any of his eight earlier UFC fights, with six of those going the full 15 minutes. Green topped that number in the third round alone and was definitely feeling it in front of the Houston crowd. Green has always been one to feed off the crowd and tends to shine in the spotlight, but after fighting on three straight PPV cards he’ll now be relegated back to the Apex.
Green has gone the distance in 11 of his last 12 fights, with the one exception coming in his second most recent match when Green landed his first finish since 2013. That came against a washed up fighter-turned-realtor in Al Iaquinta who was fighting for the first time in over two years, having now lost three straight. Green dropped Iaquinta midway through the first round with a straight right hand and then forced a stoppage with ground and pound. Iaquinta seemed to lean into the punch with his hands down like a guy looking for a way out of the fight.
Prior to the win, Green lost a pair of decisions against Rafael Fiziev and Thiago Moises. Despite losing on the scorecards, Green actually outlanded both fighters, as he led Fiziev in significant strikes 143-104 and Moises 85-42. His fight against Fiziev was an absolute brawl, as the two stood and traded from close range for basically the entire match, but more so in the second half. Green landed 66 significant strikes in the third round alone, compared to Fiziev’s 43. Despite the crazy striking output, one judge still gave Fiziev that round, while the other two rightfully awarded it to Green. Green actually outlanded Fiziev in all three rounds, but it was Fiziev who seemed to be landing the more impactful shots and won a unanimous decision. Looking back one fight further, despite outlanding Thiago Moises 85-42 in significant strikes, and matching him on takedowns with two, Green lost a unanimous 28-29 decision, seeming genuinely shocked by the outcome.
Green is now 29-12-1 as a pro with 10 KOs, eight submissions, and 10 decision wins. He’s been knocked out twice and submitted two more times in his career, while losing eight decisions. However, he’s only been finished once since 2010, which came via Dustin Poirier knocking him out in the first round of their 2016 fight. He also has a 2010 TKO loss to Tim Means and a pair of submission losses in 2009. You have to go all the way back to 2013 to find Green’s second most recent early win as he’s generally content with piecing up the opposition for 15 minutes as opposed to looking for knockout blows. Green’s hands-by-his-side fighting style provides a unique style for opponents and makes it tough to see his punches coming.
With a high school wrestling background, Green is a capable grappler with a solid 72% takedown defense, but his last five opponents to attempt a takedown have all landed at least one. In those five matches he was taken down 8 times on 25 attempts (32%). While Green’s last three opponents didn’t attempt any takedowns, Thiago Moises was able to get him down twice on three attempts in Green’s fourth most recent fight.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10” but Green will have a 1” reach advantage. Makhachev is five years younger than the 35-year-old Green.
Green is going to need a miracle to win this fight. He has never faced a wrestler like Makhachev, and while Green has shown a decent takedown defense, it’s been far from impenetrable. He’ll need to knock Makhachev out to win this fight and he has one knockout win since 2013. Sure anything can happen in a fight, but the odds of Green pulling off the upset appear significantly lower than what the odds imply if you ask us. We expect Makhachev to get this fight to the ground early and work his way to a submission finish in the first two rounds, with a good chance it comes in the opening five minutes. This is his chance to make his case for the next title shot and we expect him to take full advantage of it.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Submission” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Makhachev is coming off three straight submission wins, which scored 101, 117, and 100 DraftKings points. Those were good for 117, 95, and 87 points on FanDuel. His earlier three finishes in the UFC were good for 102, 126, and 107 DraftKings points and 115, 114, and 117 points on FanDuel. Overall, he’s similarly averaged 109 DraftKings points and 108 points on FanDuel, but his FanDuel scoring has been more polarized depending on when he gets a finish. In his four finishes that came in the first two rounds, he averaged 109 DraftKings points and 116 points on FanDuel, but in his two later round finishes he averaged 109 DraftKings points and 91 points on FanDuel. He’s been a consistent DraftKings producer regardless of when finishes come, but has been far more reliant on landing a finish in the opening 10 minutes to score well on FanDuel. A large part of that is because he’s rarely involved in many striking exchanges as he owns the record for the lowest average number of significant strikes absorbed in UFC history at 0.79 per minute, and no one has ever landed more than 13 on him in a fight. He’s also never landed more than 61 significant strikes in a fight and only averages 2.21 significant strikes landed per minute. He’s almost entirely reliant on his grappling to score well, which inherently will score better on DraftKings the longer fights go. He has a solid 66% career takedown accuracy, which is pretty damn good especially considering his game plan is an open book to get fights to the mat. It’s actually almost too good as we’ve seen several hyper-efficient finishes from him where he fails to make much of a dent on the stat sheet despite landing early finishes. While he has the highest floor of any fighter on the slate, we rarely see a huge ceiling from him and there are lots of ways he gets outscored by the other high priced fighters. As the most popular fighter on the slate, that presents an interesting leverage opportunity in large-field tournaments that could be the difference between a good finish and taking down a tournament. Just keep in mind that fading him in lineups is a very high-risk approach and Makhachev’s floor is around 100 DraftKings points. The odds imply he has an 84% chance to win, a 59% chance to get a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
This is as tough of a spot as Green could ask for. He accepted this fight on nine day’s notice and just fought two weeks before this event. Now, he’s facing one of the most dangerous wrestlers in the world with just over a week to prepare. That would seemingly leave Green reliant on landing a quick knockout to pull off the upset and with just one early win in his last 16 fights, it’s hard to be optimistic that this happens. Not to mention, Makhachev absorbs the fewest significant strikes in the history of the UFC and will be looking to get this fight to the ground early and often. We expect recency bias to keep a small portion of the field on Green, but he shouldn’t carry much ownership regardless. That’s about the only reason to consider having any exposure, as if he somehow pulls off this historic upset then he would very likely end up in tournament-winning lineups at low ownership. Just keep in mind, he’s not going to win. The odds imply he has a 16% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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