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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #14
Alatengheili
5th UFC Fight (2-1-1)Coming off a draw against Gustavo Lopez after losing a decision to Casey Kenney, Alatengheili hasn’t won a fight since 2019 when he won a split-decision over Ryan Benoit. In his recent slow-paced draw against Lopez, Alatengheili won the first two rounds on all three judges’ score cards, but Lopez finally turned it on in round three and Alatengheili unfortunately was deducted a point for multiple blatant fence grabs resulting in the draw. After Alatengheili narrowly led in striking in the first two rounds, Lopez took the lead late in round three and actually finished ahead in significant strikes 44-36 and 47-37 in total strikes, while landing 3 of his 8 takedown attempts. Alatengheili failed to land his only attempt.
Prior to the disappointing draw, Alatengheili lost a decision to Casey Kenney. Heili showed off his toughness simply to survive that fight as he absorbed relentless body kicks from Kenney. The fight ended with Kenney ahead 109-46 in striking and it looked like something out of a Jean-Claude Van Damme training montage as Kenney chopped at Heili’s midsection for the entire fight. That was Heili’s first UFC loss after he won a pair of decisions in his first two fights with the organization.
After going 7 for 20 on takedowns in his first two UFC matches, Heili failed to land his only attempt in his last two fights, which is a little surprising considering his wrestling background. However, maybe he just didn’t like the matchups so you never know when he’ll return to his wrestling.
Prior to the loss against Kenney, Heili won decisions over Ryan Benoit and Danaa Batgerel after his three previous fights (before joining the UFC) all ended in knockouts within the first two rounds (2-1). He’s been outstruck in all four of his UFC fights but he was able to land takedowns to win on the scorecards in his first two matches. He doesn’t land many significant strikes, with totals of 36, 47, 46, and 36 in his four UFC fights, which have all gone the distance.
In his UFC debut Heili was outstruck by Danaa Batgerel 85-36, but landed 3 of 7 takedowns, all in the final round, while defending Batgerel’s only takedown attempt. Heili did appear to do more damage with his strikes and dominated in control time and despite the striking deficit he won a unanimous 29-27 decision. In his next fight, Ryan Benoit outstruck Heili in significant strikes 68-47, but Heili went 4 of 13 on takedowns while successfully defending Benoit’s only attempt. Heili ended up winning a close split-decision.
Heili has been knocked out three times as a pro, but two of those came early on in his career back in 2014—in his 4th and 6th fights. Both of those KOs occurred in the second round. His only other KO loss came in 2017, in a first round 29 second finish. His lone submission loss came in a first round armbar in 2015. He’s only been finished once since that 2015 submission, which was still back in 2017.
Of his 14 career wins, he has four KOs, three submissions and seven decision victories. Since a 2015 submission win, all 13 of his fights have ended in either KOs (3-1) or decisions (6-1-2) and the last time one of his fights ended early was in 2018, just before joining the UFC.
Despite his wrestling background, Heili seems perfectly content with keeping things on the feet, especially early on in fights. He’s not a high-volume striker by any means and typically throws one, sometimes two punches at a time. He does have decent power, but he’s far from an elite striker and has a poor striking defense.
Kevin Croom
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Croom will be making the move down to 135 lb for this fight, where he hasn't competed since 2016. He made his short notice UFC debut all the way up at 155 lb, before dropping down to 145 lb for his last two fights. At 5’11”, getting down to 135 lb has to be a tough cut for him, so it will be interesting to see how he looks at weigh-ins. He had a short stint at 135 lb in 2014 and 2015, where he went 2-1 with a pair of decisions (1-1) and a R1 KO win. He also fought at 135 lb one other time in 2016, when he was submitted in the second round.
Similar to his UFC debut, Croom stepped into his last fight on short notice against Brian Kelleher. Croom looked to push the pace early in that fight, but Kelleher responded by dropping him in the first round. To his credit, Croom was immediately able to recover and never looked very hurt. Kelleher was also able to land a takedown later in the round, and then went on to land two more in round two and three in round three as he continued to rely on his grappling. While Croom finished ahead in significant strikes 60-38 and in total strikes 83-67. Kelleher led in takedowns 6-0 and in control time 6:26-0:47 on his way to winning a unanimous decision.
That’s Croom’s second straight decision loss after he was previously defeated by Alex Caceres. In that earlier loss, Croom tried to keep up an unsustainable pace as he relentlessly looked for takedowns, which unsurprisingly resulted in him gassing out in the third round and going just 1 for 16 on his takedown attempts. Caceres finished ahead 48-16 in significant strikes and 97-26 in total strikes, while matching Croom 1-1 on takedowns, although it took Caceres just one attempt and Croom 16. Croom led in control time 7:32-3:44 which was mostly spent pushing Caceres up against the cage while Croom failed to land takedowns.
Prior to the pair of decision losses, Croom took his UFC debut on just a day’s notice and fought up a weight class. Nevertheless, Croom dropped Roosevelt Roberts with a left hook just seconds into the fight and then locked up a guillotine choke to close things out as Roberts got up. The entire fight lasted just 31 seconds. Unfortunately for Croom, the result was overturned to a No Contest when Croom tested positive for THC.
Now 21-14 as a pro, Croom has six wins by KO, 10 by submission, and five decisions. He’s also been knocked out four times, submitted four more, and lost six decisions. Including his UFC debut that was later overturned, 17 of his 36 pro fights have ended in the first round (13-4) and he’s generally looking to push the pace and end fights quickly. With that said, four of Croom’s last five fights have gone the distance. Croom trains out of Glory MMA & Fitness and it will be interesting to see what changes Krause has implemented to try and notch Croom’s first official UFC win. He could be fighting for his job here, as few fighters survive three fight losing streaks on their initial contract.
Fight Prediction:
Croom will have a 6” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.
The biggest question mark in this matchup is what Croom will look like after cutting down to 135 lb. If he leaves his chin/soul on the scale then Alatengheili will have a greater chance to land a finish, despite the fact that he’s been a decision machine so far in the UFC. Croom has also shown cardio issues that could be made worse following a tough weight cut. However, if the weight cut doesn’t play a factor, then we would expect to see this fight go the distance. While Alatengheili hasn’t landed a takedown in his last two fights, Croom got taken down six times on eight attempts in his last match, and it would make sense for Alatengheili to return to his wrestling roots here to overcome his size and reach disadvantages. Whether or not he does that is a different story. Outside of a quick finish in his UFC debut, Croom has failed to impress so far in the UFC and still seems to be searching for his identity, although the same could be said about Alatengheili to a lesser extent. Both guys have been sporadic with their takedown attempts, and we’ve seen them each shoot for double digit takedowns at times just to go 0 for 1 on their attempts in other fights. Overall, Alatengheili has been the more impressive fighter, while Croom has just been sloppy. Croom will need to rely on his size advantage and pick Alatengheili apart from the outside to grind out a decision win, while Alatengheili would be wise to turn this into a wrestling match and wear on Croom’s cardio. We like Alatengheili to win a decision, but there’s a chance he could land a knockout if the weight cut doesn’t go well for Croom.
Our favorite bet here is Alatengheili’s ML at -170.
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DFS Implications:
Heili has yet to sniff a usable DFS score, but his wrestling background theoretically makes him a better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel—at least if he actually looks for takedowns this time around. Barring a completely lopsided wrestling performance, he needs a finish to return value on either DFS site, and so far he’s fought to four straight decisions in the UFC. This does look like a favorable matchup for him, as Croom really struggled to defend takedowns in his last fight and is now attempting to move down a weight class, which makes this a higher variance spot overall. It’s more likely Alatengheili wins a decision then gets a finish here, but it makes sense to have some exposure in tournaments based on his low projected ownership and theoretical wrestling upside. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 27% chance to get a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Croom’s 31 second submission win in his UFC debut was good for 127 DraftKings points and 123 points on FanDuel, however it was expunged from his record after he tested positive for THC. Now, his scoresheet lists DraftKings scores of just 32 and 12 in his two UFC fights. He then went on to lose a pair of decisions where he scored just 32 and 30 DraftKings points and overall he has been sloppy and unimpressive throughout those two fights. He’ll now be moving down to 135 lb for the first time in the UFC, but we’re more worried about how that will affect his chin and cardio then we are excited about his potential size advantage. The odd simply Croom has a 37% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #13
Istela Nunes
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Nunes is looking to bounce back from a third round submission loss in her UFC debut against Ariane Carnelossi, who is far more known for her power than her grappling. The fact that Carnelossi came in with such a grappling-heavy gameplan just shows the level of respect that she had for Nunes’ striking, and Carnelossi landed five takedowns on seven attempts with over seven minutes of control time before forcing a tap through a rear-naked choke midway through round three. Nunes led in significant strikes 62-36 and in total strikes 98-76, but spent the majority of the fight pushed up against the fence defending takedowns. When she was out in open space, Nunes showed crisp striking and looked dangerous on the feet.
Prior to her recent October 2021 UFC debut, Nunes had originally been scheduled to make her debut back in 2019 against Angela Hill, but a failed drug test removed her from that card and resulted in a two year suspension. She claims to this day that she never took any kind of anabolic steroid but the test results disagreed. She had then more recently been scheduled to face Jinh Yu Frey in July 2021, but Nunes withdrew from that fight before finally debuting against Carnelossi.
With the series of cancellations and suspension, Nunes has now competed just once since 2018, but is still just 29 years old. Her second most recent fight was in July 2018 and took place at 125 lb, however, the rest of her career has been spent at 115 lb where she made her UFC debut.
A two time Muay Thai world champion, Nunes is a dangerous striker, but lacks any sort of grappling skills. Two of her six career wins have come by KO, with the other four ending in decisions. Both of her losses ended in late round submissions. She also had a KO win overturned to a No Contest due to illegal strikes. Nune’s last two wins have both ended in decisions and her only official early win since her 2015 pro debut was a third round head kick KO in 2016.
After getting a tough matchup in her UFC debut, Nunes will now get an easier opponent in her second UFC fight.
Sam Hughes
4th UFC Fight (0-3)After losing all three of her UFC fights, Hughes’ days in the UFC are likely numbered. She’s coming off a decision loss to Luana Pinheiro, who fought far more tentatively than we’ve seen from her previously. Pinheiro never pushed for a finish and allowed Hughes to hang around in the fight, and the striking actually ended up close with Pinheiro ahead in significant strikes 60-53 and in total strikes 67-65. She was able to knock Huges down in round two and also land two of her three takedown attempts in the fight, but it was overall an uninspired performance from Pinheiro. It’s not like Hughes looked great in the fight either, but her expectations were much lower so that wasn’t surprising. With that loss, Hughes has now dropped four of her last five fights going back to her LFA days.
In her short notice UFC debut, Hughes got absolutely destroyed by Tecia Torres for five minutes as Torres outlanded her 52-20 and was on pace to land 156 significant strikes and three takedowns if it went the distance. However, following the first round Hughes claimed she couldn’t see and the fight was immediately stopped. That was just the second time in 19 pro fights that Torres didn’t go to the judges.
Following the loss to Torres, Hughes lost a decision against Muay Thai striker Loma Lookboonmee, who’s now fought to six straight decisions and has yet to show any sort of finishing ability at the UFC level. Lookboonmee outlanded Hughes 84-49 in significant strikes, while landing four takedowns on eight attempts and stuffing both of Hughes’ attempts. Prior to that Lookboonmee had notably only landed two takedowns in her first three UFC fights.
Hughes is now 5-4 as a pro, with one win by KO, three by submission, and one decision. Three of her four early wins came against opponents who had never fought professionally before and she hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat at the UFC level. While her last two losses have gone the distance, the first two of her career came early with a 2020 R4 submission loss to Vanessa Demopoulos and the R1 TKO defeat to Torres in her UFC debut. Hughes has attempted three takedowns in the UFC, but failed to land any of them. Hughes turned pro in February 2019 initially fighting at 130 lb, but worked her way down to 115 lb by July 2020. All of her wins came at 120-130 lb and she’s gone 0-4 in her career at 115 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Hughes will have a 1” height advantage, but Nunes will have a 2” reach advantage.
Hughes did better than expected in her last fight, but we attribute that more to a poor performance from Luana Pinheiro than an impressive performance from Hughes. Istela Nunes is a far superior striker to Hughes, and while Nunes’ grappling is a major vulnerability, Hughes has yet to land a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts. Hughes is likely just fighting out her contract here, and even if she does win, it would be surprising if she didn’t get cut after starting 0-3 and likely fighting out her contract. It’s tough to know where Hughes’ mind is at coming into this fight, although you could also argue she has nothing to lose. Hughes got mauled by Tecia Torres in her UFC debut, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Nunes put on a similar performance as long as she can keep it a striking battle. We like Nunes to overwhelm Hughes with her striking and finish this fight with a knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Nunes KO” at +460.
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DFS Implications:
A two time Muay Thai world champion, Nunes is a one-dimensional striker who doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling, but this looks like a great matchup for her to hit a ceiling performance. Hughes is 0-3 in the UFC and allowed another striker in Tecia Torres to have a career day against her. Nunes is light years ahead of Hughes when it comes to striking and as long as she can keep the fight standing, she should be able to dominate. Working in her favor, Hughes has yet to land a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts. Nunes is still highly unlikely to return value without a finish, but we like her chances to finish Hughes with a KO/TKO more than the odds do. The odds imply she has a 66% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Hughes has yet to give us any reason to consider playing her in DFS and now she’s walking into another tough matchup against a far superior opponent. The only reason for optimism in Hughes is that she has three career submission wins, and Nunes has been very vulnerable on the ground, with both of her career losses ending in submissions. Just keep in mind, Hughes has not appeared to be any sort of submission threat at the UFC level, and two of her three submissions came against opponents making their pro debuts. The chances that Hughes can win a striking battle are slim to none, so grappling appears to be her only chance and she’s gone 0 for 3 three on her takedown attempts so far in the UFC. The odds imply she has a 34% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Trey Ogden
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Jordan Leavitt had been scheduled to face a striker in Victor Martinez, but Martinez withdrew and Ogden stepped in to make his UFC debut on 17 day’s notice. Ogden said he found out about this fight on the day of an already scheduled jiu-jitsu match, so he had already been training to compete.
Ogden is coming off a Fury FC Lightweight Championship fight where he landed a second round submission win with Dana White in attendance to land a UFC contract. He trains with James Krause at Glory MMA & Fitness, so you know he has a solid team behind him. He’s a BJJ black belt and a relentless grappler who consistently looks to get fights to the mat and finish with submissions.
He’s 15-4 as a pro, with 11 of his wins coming by submission and four going the distance, He’s also been submitted in three of his four pro losses, while he also has one decision loss. Two of his three losses came by R1 guillotine against Thomas Gifford, who went on to go 0-2 in the UFC. No one has ever been knocked out in any of his fights, but we generally see someone get choked out. Five of Ogden’s last seven finishes have come in the later rounds, with four ending in round two. Only two of his last 11 fights have required the judges and his last four have all ended in submissions in nine minutes or less.
Since turning pro in 2015, Ogden has had a good number of fights under his belt (19), but has only competed once since August 2020 so he hasn’t been very active lately. However he’s constantly coaching and in the gym and he did just compete in November following a 15 month layoff and went on to land a second round submission in a regional title fight and punch his ticket to the UFC.
Jordan Leavitt
4th UFC Fight (2-1)After preparing to face a striker, Leavitt had his opponent switched to a grappler with 17 days to prepare. We’ve seen Leavitt find success so far in the UFC against strikers, but the one time he faced a grappler he lost a decision and he was taken down four times on four attempts while being controlled for 10 minutes in the match.
Leavitt is coming off a submission win over Matt Sayles, who’s helpless on the mat, was fighting up a weight class, and hadn’t competed in two years since getting submitted by Bryce Mitchell. So it was essentially a dream spot for Leavitt. Sayles probably had to show some ID before they let him in the Octagon, as he looked way too out of shape to be a UFC fighter. Leavitt came close to locking up a submission towards the end of round one, but Sayles was able to survive to see a second round. However, Sayles foolishly took Leavitt down in round two and somehow Leavitt forced Sayles to tap from an inverted triangle that really didn’t look that tight. That was apparently just the third inverted triangle submission in UFC history and Matt Sayles continues to play exotic submission bingo as he consistently finds unusual ways to get submitted after tapping from a twister in his previous fight. Leavitt only landed one of his six takedown attempts in the match, while Sayles landed his only attempt.
Prior to the recent win, Leavitt suffered his first career loss in a disappointing decision. That fight played out as a sluggish wrestling match against one-dimensional grappler Claudio Puelles, who was able to control Leavitt for most of the fight as he finished with 10 minutes of control time on four takedowns, while stuffing 5 of Leavitt’s 7 attempts. Puelles never threatened a finish and Leavitt led in significant strikes 21-20 and in total strikes 170-71, but Puelles won a unanimous 29-28 decision. The fight looked like it was taking place underwater as both guys appeared to be operating in slow motion and it was overall an uninspiring effort all around, but especially by Leavitt.
That was just the third time Leavitt has seen round three in his short 10 fight career, with all three of those ending in decisions. In his previous December 2020 UFC debut, Leavitt landed a 22 second R1 KO by Slam against a washed up Matt Wiman.
Leavitt is now 9-1 as a pro with seven finishes, including four in the first round and three in the second. Five of those have ended in submissions, while he also has the one TKO by Slam. As a former high school wrestler, he’s a one-dimensional grappler without any real striking ability. He fought his first four pro fights at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in February 2020 where he’s stayed since.
Leavitt got his shot in the UFC with a first round arm-triangle submission win on DWCS back in August 2020. In a fight that lasted four minutes and 15 seconds, we didn’t see many strikes being thrown as Leavitt finished ahead just 4-2 in significant strikes and 23-4 in total strikes. He only needed one takedown attempt to get his opponent, Luke Flores, down to the mat, which came just 16 seconds into the fight. Similar to his UFC debut, Leavitt went for a big slam in the first minute of that fight, but it didn’t have the same effect. Leavitt patiently advanced his position for the next several minutes as he worked towards a submission, which he eventually landed with 45 seconds left on the clock.
Four of Leavitt’s six finishes have notably come against very inexperienced opponents who entered with records of 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 and 3-0, and in general he hasn’t faced much in terms of competition in his career.
Fight Prediction:
Ogden will have a 2” height advantage and half inch reach advantage.
Leavitt has been taken down on all five of his opponents’ attempts so far in the UFC and seems content with going to the mat however the fight gets there. That proved problematic for him the last time he faced a grappler and will likely be an issue for him in this next one as well. Overall, Leavitt has been largely unimpressive in his last two matches and hasn’t shown much improvement as he tries to round out his skill sets. He’s still just a one-dimensional wrestler and hasn’t looked very explosive in general. Now he’ll face a more impressive grappler in Trey Ogden and this looks like the toughest fight of Leavitt’s career. While grappling matches can be somewhat unpredictable at times, we’ve been far more impressed with what we’ve seen out of Ogden than anything Leavitt has shown us. The one knock on Ogden is that he’s been prone to getting submitted himself at times, so there’s always a chance he could fall into a guillotine or something if he’s not careful. That’s likely the only way Leavitt wins this fight and we like Ogden to control him on the mat and find his way to a submission win in the first two rounds. If he’s unable to lock up a submission, we would still expect Ogden to be the one in control of this fight and would expect him to get his hand raised if it does go the distance.
Our favorite bet here is Ogden’s ML at -140.
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DFS Implications:
Ogden looks perfectly geared to the DraftKings scoring system based on his grappling-heavy approach to fighting, but he also has a knack for landing submissions, which keeps him in play in all DFS formats. His last three wins have all ended in submissions in the first two rounds and he’s only been to the judges twice in his last 11 fights, where he won both decisions. He’s been facing quality competition and appears far more ready for the UFC than Leavitt at this point, despite this being Ogden’s debut and Leavitt’s fourth UFC fight. Ogden has been extremely efficient with his takedown attempts, while Leavitt has been taken down on all five of his opponents’ attempts so far in his three UFC fights. And while neither guy is a great striker, Ogden should have an advantage on the feet as well. The only time Leavitt has faced a grappler so far in the UFC, he got taken down four times on four attempts and controlled for 10 minutes. So this sets up as a good spot for Ogden to either land a submission or win a smothering decision. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Both of Leavitt’s UFC wins have come early, but those each came against terrible/washed-up strikers and he was dominated the one time he faced a grappler. Because of that, this looks like a tough matchup for Leavitt to excel, however Ogden has been submitted in three of his pro losses, which at least gives some hope for Leavitt to get another finish. At his cheaper price tag, we’re less concerned with Leavitt putting up a slate-breaking score and even if he does get controlled for a period of time before getting a finish, there’s still a decent chance it would score enough to be useful. It would be surprising to see Leavitt come out and dominate Ogden on the mat for 15 minutes, but in the off chance he does, then he would theoretically have the ability to score well on DraftKings in a decision as well. He’s likely just a submission or bust play. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 26% chance to get a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Martin Buday
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a first round KO win on DWCS, Buday has finished eight straight opponents in the first two rounds after his first two pro fights went the distance (1-1). He comes in with a 9-1 pro record, with his only loss coming against stud UFC Heavyweight grappler Juan Espino in Buday’s second pro fight back in 2017. Seven of Buday’s wins have come by KO and one ended in a submission, while his only decision win came in a two-round fight in his 2015 pro debut. Five of his eight finishes have come in round one, but three of his last five have ended in round two. The only time he’s been in a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes was when he lost to Espino.
In his recent DWSC finish, Buday absorbed some early damage but went to work with his knees along the fence as he destroyed the quad of his opponent before finally landing a knee up high to get the fight stopped in the closing seconds of round one.
In his second most recent fight, he was way behind in striking but landed an unimposing punch late in round two that appeared to bother the eye of his opponent and then Buday followed up and put him down. Overall it was a highly unimpressive win, but showed once again anything can happen in a Heavyweight fight.
Buday is a BJJ brown belt and actually started off training in Jiu-Jitsu before transitioning to MMA. We saw some of that in his third most recent fight when he landed two takedowns and submitted his opponent early in round two with a kimura. Bunday’s takedown attempts have been sporadic, so they don’t appear to be something you can rely on, but he’d be wise to incorporate more grappling moving forward as that gives him an edge against non-grappling Heavyweights.
While Buday isn’t an overly impressive striker, he finds ways to win and does a good job of landing damage out of the clinch, where he likes to throw heavy knees. He’s a big Heavyweight who has to cut down to make 265 lb and he relies on his size to help him win ugly fights.
Overall, Buday doesn’t look like any sort of threat to make a real run in the UFC, but he should be able to find some success against other low level Heavyweights like his next opponent.
Chris Barnett
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off his first UFC win, Barnett finished a half retired overblown Light Heavyweight in Gian Villante with a second round spinning wheel kick. Villante came into that matchup looking like he had just rolled off the couch following a donut binger and clearly couldn’t have cared less about his final UFC fight. That fight also notably took place at UFC 268 in front of a live New York crowd and Barnett appeared to feed off the crowd. Barnett threw a ton of kicks in the fight and finished ahead in significant strikes 38-30 and 44-30 in total strikes. No takedowns were attempted in the match. Barnett landed a wheel kick midway through the second round and then followed it up with ground and pound as Villante simply covered up and the fight was stopped. Following the finish, Barnett graciously served as Villante’s hype man in his post fight interview and honestly, how could you not love this guy?
Prior to that win, Barnett got submitted in the second round of his short notice UFC debut by Ben Rothwell. Barnett was outlanded 60-33 by Rothwell in significant strikes and taken down once. Barnett really struggled with the size and length of the 6’4” Rothwell, who took Barnett down in round one on his only takedown attempt in the fight and nearly submitted him at that point. Barnett was able to escape to see the end of the round, but he was really just delaying the inevitable as Rothwell ended up submitting him midway through round two with a guillotine choke after Barnett shot for a desperation takedown after getting hurt on the feet.
A former Super Heavyweight and current life of the party, Chris “Huggy Bear” Barnett has fought as high as 340 lb despite being just 5’9”. He cut 75 lb to get down to Heavyweight in 2016 and won a decision in his next fight. However, he then lost by KO/TKO in three straight matches, although one of those was from a doctor stoppage due to a cut above his eye. Following the string of losses, Barnett won six in a row leading up to the loss in his UFC debut, with four KOs, including three in the first round, to go along with a pair of decisions. He also competed in two kickboxing matches in 2019, where he went 1-1, as well as a grappling match against Yoel Romero, where Barnett was submitted in under four minutes.
He now holds a 22-7 pro record, with his first 27 fights all ending in either KOs or decisions leading up to his submission loss in his UFC debut. Of his 22 wins, 17 have come by knockout, including eight in round one, eight in round two and one in round three. His other five wins all went the distance. He has three KO losses, three by decision and one submission. All three of his KO losses came in the first two rounds of 2017 fights shortly after moving down from Super Heavyweight.
With a Taekwondo background, Barnett likes to mix in spinning attacks and throws a high number of kicks in general for such a big guy, as he’ll often mix a lead leg kick into his combinations. Unlike many Taekwondo fighters, Barnett will still mix in an occasional takedown, where he’ll try to drag his opponents down using his weight to hang on them while looking for trips. He’s not hunting for submissions on the ground, however, and is purely looking for ground and pound. While his last three matches have all ended in the opening two rounds, two of his last six fights went the distance in close, low-volume staring contests.
Fight Prediction:
Buday will have a 7” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also five years younger than the 35-year-old Barnett.
Considering how much shorter Barnett is in this matchup he’ll be at additional risk of eating knees out of the clinch from Buday. Neither one of these two have been very impressive, but at least Barnett has been entertaining. We expect Buday’s size, work out of the clinch, and potentially his grappling to be too much for Barnett to overcome. Barnett will try to use his kicks to overcome the size disadvantage, but if he annoys Buday enough with that then we could see Buday try and take the fight to the mat or at least push Barnett up against the cage and chip away at him with knees and dirty boxing. Barnett struggled mightily with the 6’4” size of Ben Rothwell in his debut and now he faces another 6’4” fighter in Buday. While anything can happen in low level Heavyweight fights, we expect Buday to finish Barnett in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Buday R2 Win” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Buday isn’t an overly impressive talent, but the UFC appears to have realized that and gave him an easy matchup in his debut as the 6’4” Buday takes on a 5’9” Chris Barnett. Barnett doesn’t offer a ton of offense outside of his kicks and he really struggled with the size of Ben Rothwell in his debut, who’s also 6’4” just like Buday. We expect Buday to overpower Barnett in the clinch and he’s also a BJJ brown belt so if things get sticky he can look to take Barnett to the mat. Buday isn’t a very exciting fighter and will gladly work out of the clinch, but he should be able to overpower Barnett and work his way towards a finish as he wears down the much shorter opponent. Buday has been sporadic with his takedown attempts, but if he does get the fight to the ground he has the potential to rack up ground strikes and control time. If things remain standing it could be tougher for him to put up a big score without a first round finish, but he also has the potential to rack up control time and land a ton of strikes out of the clinch. So overall he has more ways to score well on DraftKings and he has the highest finishing chances on the slate. Barnett has notably been finished in the first two rounds in his last four losses. The odds imply Buday has a 67% chance to win, a 55% chance to land a finish, and a 33% chance it comes in round one.
Barnett is a KO or bust Heavyweight, even if he does occasionally land a takedown. He doesn’t land a ton of strikes and he’ll need a finish to return value, even at his cheap price tag. While 17 of Barnett’s 22 career wins have come by KO, he’s now facing a much larger opponent who’s never been finished. While anything can happen in a Heavyweight fight, the size difference here is ridiculous and it’s tougher to see Barnett landing another knockout. His recent finish came against an out of shape Light-Heavyweight who already had one if not both fight out the door for retirement and we wouldn’t take too much away from those results. That will, however, likely drive up Barnett’s ownership some, which makes him even less appealing in tournaments. The odds currently imply he has a 33% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Rafa Garcia
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off his first UFC win in three attempts, Garcia defeated UFC newcomer Natan Levy in a grappling-heavy decision. While Levy led in significant strikes 47-35 and in total strikes 56-55, Garcia landed 7 of his 12 takedown attempts with over five and a half minutes of control time. That’s the second straight fight where Garcia attempted exactly 12 takedowns, after he went 5 for 12 in his previous fight. However, Garcia’s cardio held up much better in his most recent fight compared to the previous match.
In that previous decision loss to Chris Gruetzemacher, Garcia started decently and had Gruetzemacher hurt early in the first round, but Gruetzemacher was able to recover and Garcia really slowed down in round two as Gruetzemacher went on to win a unanimous 29-28 decision and pull off a large upset. Garcia finished with over six and a half minutes of control time on his five landed takedowns, but Gruetzemacher led in significant strikes 100-72 and in total strikes 176-90 and was the only one doing damage in the later rounds.
In his previous short notice UFC debut, Garcia took on power puncher Nasrat Haqparast and looked decent in a pure striking battle, but was still outlanded in significant strikes 99-52 and 99-54 in total strikes. He also went 0 for 3 on his takedown attempts and had just 21 seconds of control time against the 84% takedown defense of Haqparast.
Prior to losing his debut, Garcia had been 11-0 as a pro with one KO, seven submissions and three decision wins. However, many of those wins came against very questionable competition and five of his seven submission wins notably occurred in his first five pro fights. He’s now 12-2 after going to three straight decisions in the UFC, and has gone the distance in his last five fights.
Garcia started his career at 145 lb, but moved up to 155 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since. He has okay striking, but lacks head movement and looks pretty hittable. With that said, he’s never been finished, so he’s been durable thus far.
Jesse Ronson
5th UFC Fight (0-3, NC)Ronson originally made his UFC debut in 2013, but after losing three straight split decisions against really tough opponents in Michel Prazeres, Francisco Trinaldo, and Kevin Lee he was released in 2014. He then went 8-5 outside of the organization, with seven of those wins coming early and four of those losses going the distance, before returning to the UFC in 2020. The majority of his career has been spent down at 155 lb, but he’s had six fights at 170 lb (2-3, NC) and that’s where he faced a tough Nicolas Dalby in his return. Ronson dropped Dalby midway through the first round and then went to work with ground and pound until Dalby gave up his back and Ronson choked him out on the mat. Ronson finished ahead 30-20 in significant strikes in a fight that only lasted half a round. That was the first time Dalby has ever been finished in 26 pro fights. However, the results were overturned when Ronson tested positive for a banned substance and Ronson was handed a 20-month suspension. He just became eligible to return at the end of March and at 36-years-old, he wasted no time getting a fight booked.
Ronson is 21-10 as a pro plus the No Contest, with 10 wins by KO, seven by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has lost seven decisions. His last three fights have all ended in the first round and he’s only required the judges in two of his last nine matches. Five of the 11 decisions he’s been to in his career have been split. He won both the Lightweight and Welterweight belts in the Canadian TKO promotion in 2017 and 2018. Ronson started off wrestling in high school before transitioning to kickboxing and then eventually MMA. He’s primarily a striker, with just two takedowns landed in his four UFC fights, but he can mix in grappling. Counting the one that was overturned to a No Contest, three of his last five finishes have actually come by submission.
In his first stint with the UFC, Ronson was taken down 12 times on 31 attempts (39%) over that three-fight stretch. Coming off a nearly two-year suspension and now 36 years old, it will be interesting to see how Ronson looks in his return.
Fight Prediction:
Ronson will have a 3” height advantage, but both fighters share a 70” reach.
This is an interesting matchup between two guys who are each desperate for a win. Sitting on a 1-2 UFC record, Garcia may be fighting for his job, while Ronson is still in search of his first official UFC win after having the finish in his last match overturned to a No Contest followed by a suspension. We expect Garcia to try and turn this into a grappling match, while Ronson should be looking to keep it standing. Ronson has shown a knack for landing finishes, but Garcia has never been finished in his career. Ronson notably finished Dalby in his last fight, who had also never been finished, so there’s no reason to think he can’t do the same here. Garcia’s grappling will likely give him the advantage if this fight goes the distance, but Ronson is far more of a finishing threat and if it ends early it will likely come from a Ronson finish. With Ronson coming off a lengthy suspension, it’s tough to know how he’ll look, which makes this a higher variance spot and as the odds indicate, this one looks like a coin flip. Forced to choose, we’ll say Ronson gets a finish, but we won’t be surprised if Garcia grapples his way to a decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Ronson Finish Only (Decision No Action)” at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Garcia’s grappling-heavy approach makes him an interesting DFS play and is better suited for the DraftKings scoring system. He’s landed 12 takedowns on 24 attempts in his last two fights, with 12 attempts in each of those matches. Ronson was taken down 12 times on 31 attempts in his first three UFC fights and is most dangerous on the feet, so it would make sense for Garcia to continue to look for takedowns here. Both guys are reasonably priced and there’s a good chance the winner scores well. Garcia scored 93 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, despite landing just 35 significant strikes, and another grappling-heavy decision win would likely allow him to serve as a solid value play even without a finish. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Ronson is coming off a lengthy PED suspension and is now 36 years old, which makes this a higher variance spot. He’s shown solid finishing ability throughout his career with 9 of his last 10 wins (including the No Contest) coming early. Working against him, Garcia has never been finished and will be looking to make this a grappling match, but that doesn’t mean Ronson can’t get it done. Nicolas Dalby had also never been finished until he faced Ronson, and that fight lasted less than three minutes, plus it took place up at 170 lb. The results were later overturned to a No Contest, so they don’t show up on Ronson’s stat sheet, but he scored 113 DraftKings points and 135 points on FanDuel in the first round finish. The fact that it was overturned and the scores don’t show up should help to keep his ownership lower and his DraftKings stat sheet looks terrible with four scores in the 20’s. That makes him an even more interesting tournament play. Ronson is unlikely to put up a big score in a decision victory, so you’re still relying on him to get a finish here. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Drakkar Klose
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Finally stepping back inside the Octagon a year after the infamous Jeremy Stephens weigh-in shove, what appeared to initially be a minor transgression turned out to be a far bigger deal than people realized. Klose apparently suffered a herniated disc in the incident and is still dealing with the aftermath to this day. He’s said he’ll eventually need surgery for the injury, but he wants to put it off until he’s done fighting. It’s been over two years since Klose last competed, after his previous two fights to the Stephens matchup were also canceled—one due to a cornerman testing positive for COVID and another when Jai Herbert withdrew. So it’s really just been a string of bad luck for Klose and his inactivity has been no fault of his own.
The last time Klose competed was in March 2020 when he was knocked out in the second round by Beneil Dariush, which is the only time Klose has ever been finished in his career. Dariush took Klose’s back on the feet and hunted for a rear-naked choke for basically the entire first round. However, Klose was able to fight him off and survive to see round two. Klose appeared to hurt Dariush early in the round, but Dariush bounced back and knocked Klose out just moments later.
Prior to that KO loss, Klose was 11-1-1 as a pro and on a three fight winning streak in the UFC. He had fought to eight straight decisions (6-1-1), after winning four of his first five pro fights by KO. The only other loss of his career came in a 2017 decision.
Klose is generally good at slowing down fights as he mixes in grappling, which makes sense when you consider his last 10 fights have all made it out of the first round, with eight going the distance. With that said, Klose hasn’t really been tested by many finishers outside of Beneril Dariush. Now he’ll actually get a major step down in competition and it will be interesting to see how Klose looks after his time away and as he continues to deal with the neck injury.
UPDATE: Klose initially missed weight by 0.75 lb and looked rough on the scale, but somehow was able to take an extra hour and make the weight. While we all appreciate the effort, that can’t have been easy on his body.
Brandon Jenkins
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a late third round TKO loss in his short notice UFC debut against Zhu Rong, Jenkins took that fight on just a few day’s notice. He recently said he got the call following a vacation and just after downing a bunch of In-N-Out Burger with his Jordan Leavitt, and the weight cut was unsurprisingly a brutal one. He claimed he gassed out three minutes into the fight, so we’ll see how much different he looks with a full camp in this next one.
In that recent loss, Rong controlled the fight in all facets as he landed six of his eight takedown attempts with nine and a half minutes of control time, while also leading in significant strikes 86-41 and in total strikes 134-67. He also notched a knockdown in the first round as he filled up the stat sheet.
A few week’s prior to making his debut, Jenkins knocked out former UFC fighter Jacob Kilburn. However, Kilburn notably got destroyed in both of his UFC fights, which each took place at 145 lb, before joining the PFL and fighting Jenkins up a weight class at 155 lb.
Jenkins is a one-dimensional striker who relies heavily on his leg kicks to win fights. He also mixes in flying knees and spinning elbows, which is how he landed his last two finishes. He’s somewhat of a patient fighter and despite his nickname “The Human Highlight Reel” he recently fought to a boring 25 minute decision in his third most recent fight. With that said, five of his last six fights have ended in KO/TKOs (3-2), but he’s also fought to decisions in four of his last nine, including two five rounders.
He’s now 15-8 as a pro, with 10 wins by KO, three by submission, and just two decisions. Of his eight career losses, five have gone the distance, while he’s been finished three times. The first of those was a 2015 R1 rear-naked choke. He was then knocked out in a 2019 R3 flying knee KO against Mike Breeden, who was recently knocked out in his UFC debut. Jenkins’ most recent early loss came in another third round KO/TKO in his UFC debut. Jenkins has fought anywhere from 145 lb to 170 lb in the past, but his last two fights took place at 155 lb.
Overall, Jenkins does not appear to be a UFC level talent based on what he’s shown so far. He’s a one dimensional striker who often relies on low percentage attacks like flying knees and spinning attacks to finish fights. He’ll have a chance to prove us wrong with more time to prepare for this next fight, but it won’t be easy as he faces a tough opponent.
Fight Prediction:
Jenkins will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
There is a ton of uncertainty surrounding both sides of this fight. Klose hasn’t fought in over two years and has been dealing with a herniated disc for the last year. It’s impossible to know how that will affect his performance. On the other side of things, Jenkins looked terrible in his short notice debut, but will now have a full camp to prepare for a fight, so it’s possible he looks much better. With that said, we’re expecting Klose to control this fight and slowly dismantle Jenkins. Whether or not Klose can land his first finish since 2015 is a different story, but if he was ever going to finish anybody, this would be the time. All four of Klose’s career finishes came by KO/TKO in the opening two rounds of his first five pro fights for what it’s worth, but those all happened so long ago they carry less significance. We expect Klose to win, but it’s tougher to say if he’ll land a finish based on his track record. If he does it would make sense for it to come in the later rounds, and we don’t expect him to come out overly aggressive following his long layoff, injury, and KO loss in his last fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Klose R3 or Decision” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
Klose has averaged 78 DraftKings points in his five UFC decision wins and likely needs a finish here to score well. The last time he finished anybody was in a 2015 R2 KO in his 5th pro fight, and now he’s coming off a two year layoff and a herniated disc injury that still hasn’t been resolved. Klose had fought to eight straight decisions before getting knocked out for the first time against Beneil Dariush in last fight back in March 2020, and is littered with red flags as he checks in as the most expensive fighter on the slate. Working in his favor, he gets a major step down in competition and checks in as a massive e-700 favorite despite all of his issues. His opponent, Brandon Jenkins, has been finished in the third round via KO/TKO in each of his last two losses and hasn’t shown he belongs in the UFC. So if Klose was ever going to get a finish, this would be the time. Klose has shown a wide range of scoring outcomes in his decision wins, with his total ranging from 57 to 98. It’s possible he comes in with a grappling-heavy gameplan and dominates Jenkins on the mat, but he’s never landed more than three takedowns in a fight in the past. It’s tougher to see him returning value without a finish, but it’s not entirely impossible based on how bad Jenkins looked on the ground in his last fight. We expect Klose’s expensive price tag and past scoring struggles to turn off most of the field from playing him, but on a slate lacking much name recognition, the field will need to spend the salary somewhere, so he won’t go nearly as low owned as he otherwise would and could end up being more popular than expected based on his odds. Speaking of that, the odds imply he has an 83% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Jenkins has landed finishes in 13 of his 15 career wins, although we have to question some of the competition level that those wins came against. This will undoubtedly be the toughest matchup of his career, and Jenkins is a one dimensional striker who won’t add anything in the grappling department and doesn’t throw enough volume to score well in a decision. So you’re relying on a finish for him to score well. With so much uncertainty surrounding Klose, there’s always a chance Jenkins comes in and lands some sort of spinning attack or flying knee and pulls off the massive upset with a knockout. So it makes sense to have a small level of exposure in tournaments at his cheap price tag and low ownership, but we’d be surprised to see him get it done here. UPDATE: Klose’s tough weight cut has us a little more interested in Jenkins, but we all saw how that worked out last week with Santos/Arce. The odds imply Jenkins has a 17% chance to win, a 10% chance to get a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Pannie Kianzad
8th UFC Fight (4-3)This is actually a rematch of a 2012 fight that ended in a third round TKO win for Kianzad, in what was Lansberg’s pro debut and Kianzad’s third pro fight. In that fight, Kianzad immediately took control of the center of the Octagon and the fight ended up in the clinch right after, with Kianzad pushing Lansberg up against the fence and then taking her down. She kept her there for a couple of minutes landing ground strikes, before Lansberg reversed the position and ended up on top. However, Kianzad then went for an extended armbar attempt, and while she was unable to complete it, she did eventually use it to reverse the position and finish the round on top. Kianzad again looked to take the fight to the ground in round two, but was unable to do so on multiple attempts. We finally saw the two trade more in open space in round three, although Kianzad again looked for a takedown midway through the round. Kianzad was finally able to get the fight to the mat in the final 90 seconds, where she went to work with light ground and pound, but did enough to get a weak stoppage in the closing seconds of the fight.
Kianzad will now be looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Raquel Pennington. As she often does, Pennington was able to control Kianzad for periods of time in the clinch along the fence. Kianzad actually finished ahead in significant strikes 50-48, but Pennington led in total strikes 98-85 and in control time 6:16-5:34, while both ladies landed one takedown. We saw nearly 12 minutes of combined control time in the match.
Prior to that loss, Kianzad won a close/questionable decision win over Alexis Davis. That marked Kianzad’s fourth straight decision win after losing a decision to Julia Avila in 2019. Kianzad was outlanded by Alexis Davis 132-124 in significant strikes and 147-124 in total strikes while also getting taken down once in the second round. Despite Davis leading in total strikes and significant strikes in two of the three rounds, two of the judges ruled it in favor of Kianzad 30-27.
Prior to her recent clinch battle against Pennington, Kianzad had landed at least 92 significant strikes in her previous four fights, with totals of 124, 92, 103 and 98 during that stretch. However she’s essentially a one-dimensional striker with only two takedowns in her seven UFC matches and just one in her last five. Her last seven fights and 10 of her last 11 have ended in decisions. The only fight to end early during that time was a 2018 R2 submission loss to Macy Chiasson in Kianzad’s UFC debut. Kianzad fought her next fight following that loss outside of the UFC, where she won a decision and then returned to the organization to lose a decision to Julia Avila in 2019. She then won decisions against Jessica-Rose Clark, Bethe Correia and Sijara Eubanks, and Alexis Davis, before her recent loss to Pennington
Looking at her entire pro career, Kianzad is 15-6, with three wins by KO and 12 decisions. Two of her three KO wins came in her first three pro fights, with the third coming in her 6th pro match back in 2014. Those knockouts came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0 and 1-1, one of which was Lina Lansberg making her pro debut. Two of the TKOs occurred in the third round, with one ending in round one. Three of her six career losses have ended early, with a 2015 R2 TKO, a 2017 R1 rear-naked choke and a 2018 R2 rear-naked choke.
Overall, Kianzad is a decision grinder who’s been in several close calls recently. She’s primarily just a striker and only occasionally mixes in a takedown.
Lina Lansberg
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Coming off a 27 month layoff and now 40 years old, the last time Lansberg fought was in a smothering decision loss to Sara McMann, where Lansberg amazingly landed just a single significant strike over 15 minutes. Following the embarrassing loss, Lansberg hadn’t booked a fight in years until now and it’s a little surprising she didn’t just retire.
Prior to getting smothered for three rounds by McMann, Lansberg won a low-volume clinch battle over Macy Chiasson in a fight that saw nearly 14 minutes of combined control time. After Chiasson controlled Lansberg for the entire first round, Lansberg flipped the script and controlled Chiasson for the majority of the latter rounds. We only saw 47 combined significant strikes landed in the match, with Chiasson leading 26-21. However, Chiasson failed to land any of her four takedown attempts, while Lansberg landed two of her four attempts and led in control time 7:45-5:47.
Lansberg’s second most recent win was another clinch heavy battle with nearly 14 minutes of combined control time, with Lansberg again leading 7:58-5:46 and leading in significant strikes 50-6. Overall we’ve seen over 13 minutes of combined control time in each of Lansberg’s last three fights and she’s rarely been involved in a striking battle.
Lansberg didn’t turn pro until she was 31, and now owns a 10-5 pro record, with four wins by TKO and six decisions. All four of her finishes came in her first seven pro fights, prior to joining the UFC. She also has three TKO losses on her record, with the first of those coming in the third round of her 2012 pro debut against Kianzad. The more recent two came in a 2016 R2 TKO against Cris Cyborg and a 2017 R2 TKO against Aspen Ladd. She also has two decision losses on her record, both of which occurred in her last four fights.
Lansberg has only landed above 50 significant strikes in one of her UFC fights, which was in a 2017 decision win when she landed 80. She also has only landed five total takedowns in her eight UFC fights and generally doesn’t make much of an impact on the stat sheet.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Kianzad will have a 1” reach advantage and is 10 years younger than the 40-year-old Lansberg.
We expect this fight to play out as a boring clinch battle between two unexciting fighters. Kianzad will most likely do enough to win a decision, but it could be close depending on how the judges value control time spent along the cage. While Kianzad finished Lansberg with a late R3 TKO through ground and pound the first time these two fought back in 2012, that was a really weak stoppage and the fight should have gone the distance with Kianzad winning a decision. That’s how we expect this fight to end as well, and it would be very surprising to see it end early. With that said, there’s not much value on Kianzad by decision so we don’t mind taking a stab at Lansberg pulling off the upset.
Our least hated bet here is “Lansberg Decision” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Kianzad has failed to top 80 DraftKings points in any of her four UFC wins, which all ended in decisions. She hasn’t finished an opponent since her sixth pro fight back in 2014, which ended in a third round TKO. It’s really hard to see her returning value at her expensive price tag and the only arguments for playing her are that she’s facing a 40-year-old opponent who’s coming off a 27 month layoff and has already been finished by Kianzad early in their careers, and Kianzad will be low owned in tournaments. We’re still not at all excited by her in any format however. The odds imply she has a 76% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Lansberg has also struggled to score well in DFS and is now littered with red flags as she hasn’t fought since January 2020 and is now 40 years old. She hasn’t finished an opponent since 2016, prior to joining the UFC. The only reason to consider her is her cheap price tag and we’ve seen her be involved in several clinch heavy decisions. IF she can somehow control Kianzad in the clinch for the majority of the fight, there’s a chance Lansberg could serve as a DraftKings specific value play, but the chances are still very unlikely. Lansberg did once score 95 DraftKings points in a clinch heavy decision win where she put up a decent number of total strikes. That’s the type of performance she’ll need here to be useful. The odds imply she has a 24% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Devin Clark
13th UFC Fight (6-6)Making his first trip up to Heavyweight, Clark is coming off a pair of losses. After getting submitted in the first round of a November 2020 main event by Anthony Smith, Clark most recently lost a lopsided decision to Ion Cutelaba. Things looked bleak for Clark from the midway point on in round one after getting dropped by Cutelaba and then punished with violent ground and pound, but Clark was narrowly able to survive. Cutelaba was then able to control Clark for the majority of the later rounds and finished with eight takedowns landed on 12 attempts and nearly nine minutes of control time. Cutelaba also led in significant strikes 64-23 and in total strikes 92-84. Honestly it felt much wider watching the fight. Clark was only able to land one takedown on six attempts, which came early in the first round. Overall it was a soul crushing defeat that likely took years off of Clark’s life.
Prior to that decision loss, all five of Clark’s UFC losses had come in the first two rounds, while all six of his wins have ended in decisions. In fairness to him, his last five losses have all come against stiff competition in Ion Cutelaba, Anthony Smith, Ryan Spann, Aleksandar Rakic, and Jan Blachowicz.
Now 12-6 as a pro, eight of Clark’s wins have ended in decisions and he hasn’t finished anybody since 2016. Three of his four early wins came in his first three pro fights from 2013 to 2015 against opponents who entered with records of 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0. His fourth finish came in his 6th pro fight by way of "Hand Injury". His six losses include two KOs, three submissions, and one decision, with all five of his early losses ending in the first two rounds.
A lifelong wrestler, Clark seems adamant about fighting his style of fight, which is to grind out decisions by controlling opponents up against the cage using his tree trunk upper legs. When his game plan fails, it normally does so in dramatic fashion as he’s been finished in five of his six UFC losses.
William Knight
6th UFC Fight (3-2)After missing weight by 12 lb for his last fight at Light Heavyweight, Knight now made the move up to Heavyweight. For what it’s worth this fight was put together on just 16 day’s notice. Following the massive weight miss, Knight went on to lose a boring decision against the much taller 6’3” Maxim Grishin—Knight is just 5’10”. While Knight was able to take Grishin down three times on nine attempts, Grishin won the striking battle as he finished ahead 69-21 in significant strikes and 88-32 in total strikes. Grishin relied on his length advantage to strike from distance and left Knight swinging at air for the most part as he tried to return fire. Knight looked fat and slow overall, and he landed just eight strikes in the first round with zero takedown attempts in the round. It’s unclear what his strategy was, but it clearly wasn’t working. Knight did start to look for takedowns in the later rounds, but still struggled to land many strikes, as he only landed five significant strikes in round two and just eight in round three. Grishin easily cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win.
Prior to that loss, Knight won a close decision against Alonzo Menifield. Knight was controlled for extended periods of time in the fight, but Menifield failed to do much of anything with those positions and was made to pay for it in the end. After getting controlled for over three minutes in the first round, Knight landed a late knockdown to secure the round and nearly got a finish. Round two stayed entirely on the feet, with Menifield leading the dance in striking to even the fight at one round a piece. Instead of continuing to try and win the fight through striking, Menifield reverted back to pushing Knight against the cage for several minutes in round three and that decision appeared to cost him the fight. In the limited time spent in space the third round, Knight led in striking and Menifield did nothing along the cage to score points when it came to determining a decision. Knight finished strong as he tried to steal the round by being the aggressor in the closing seconds, backing Menifield up against the cage with Knight landing a few final strikes. That was just enough to win the fight showing how razor thin the margin was. The fight ended with Knight ahead in significant strikes 55-44 and total strikes 82-66. He also landed the only knockdown and the only takedown in the fight, while Menifield dominated control time 6:25-0:43.
Looking back one fight further, Knight landed his only finish in the UFC when he knocked out Fabio Cherant in the first round. That loss for Cherant came just after he was submitted in the first round by Menifield in his UFC debut. Cherant narrowly led Knight in significant strikes 15-14 before suffering the late first round KO in a low-volume fight with no takedown attempts.
Prior to that, Knight was overpowered by Da Un Jung who easily took Knight down eight times on nine attempts and accrued over 12 minutes of control time. Prior to that grappling explosion, Jung hadn’t landed a takedown in any of his previous three UFC fights. Jung finished ahead in significant strikes 28-17 and 73-38 in total strikes in a fight that played out almost entirely on the mat.
Knight made his UFC debut in September 2020 against Aleksa Camur, who he defeated in a grappling heavy decision as he finished ahead in significant strikes just 38-17, while Camur came out slightly ahead in total strikes 59-58. However, Knight landed four of his five takedown attempts with over six and half minutes of control time, while Camur went one for four on takedowns with just under five and a half minutes of control time.
Knight is now 11-3 as a pro with nine wins by KO and two by decision. He has one KO loss and two decision losses, and all 14 of his fights have ended in either knockouts or decisions. Seven of those 10 knockouts ended in the first round (6-1), one ended in round two, and two finished in round three. Knight doesn’t have any submission wins as a pro, but he did have three as an amateur and will occasionally look for submissions. He’s just yet to land one—probably because he can’t fit his forearm under anyone’s chin.
Despite already being 34 years old, Knight started his pro MMA career less than four years ago and only started fighting as an amateur back in 2016. He did have a wrestling background to build on, as he was a state champion in high school.
He’s been on DWCS twice, first in 2019 and then most recently in September 2020. In his first appearance he scored a R3 KO that earned him a developmental contract. In that fight, he landed 4 of 7 takedown attempts while adding 97 significant strikes over the course of 14 minutes and 34 seconds before finishing the fight late.
In his second appearance on the show, he had a brutal start as he was immediately taken down, then gave up his back and was absorbing heavy ground and pound while face down on the mat. The fight looked close to being stopped, however, Knight was able to stall long enough to get back to his feet. As his opponent shot for a second takedown, Knight landed several elbows to the side of his head which abruptly ended the match. It was a pretty flukey finish and he looked to be in real trouble prior to flipping the script, but it was enough to get him a shot in the UFC.
UPDATE: Knight tipped the scales at a ridiculous 251 lb!
Fight Prediction:
Clark will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
Knight looked terrible in his last fight after ballooning up to Heavyweight and now he’s packed on another 33 lb in the last two months, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll look much better. Like seriously, does this guy have a medical condition we should be concerned about? We don’t expect the additional weight to benefit either of these two, and the real questions will be how the large weight difference affects Clark’s ability to control Knight. Clark relies on grinding out wrestling-heavy decisions and we’ll likely see extended periods of time with Clark pushing Knight up against the cage. The only way we see this fight ending early is if Knight lands something flush and knocks Clark out, but Knight looked so slow in his last fight we’d be surprised to see him get a finish here. We’re expecting a slow-paced grappling match and like Clark to win a boring decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Clark Decision” at +135.
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DFS Implications:
Clark relies on dominating grappling performances to score well in DFS, which automatically makes him a much better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel. All six of his UFC wins have ended in decisions, where he’s averaged 94 DraftKings points but just 74 points on FanDuel with DK/FD totals of 86/79, 95/61, 71/62, 129/92, 109/91 and 76/60. While he’s put up a couple of big DK scores with the help of ground strikes, takedowns and control time, he’s failed to ever top 92 points on FanDuel. It’s also important to note that all of his good scores have come against one-dimensional strikers where he’s been able to dominate in wrestling. Considering Knight’s background is also in wrestling this does not look like a good spot for Clark to turn out a ceiling performance, but he always scores better on DraftKings than FanDuel. Considering Clark is moving up to Heavyweight for the first time and will be much lighter than Knight, this is a high variance spot and it’s hard to say exactly how it will turn out. It’s possible that Knight will be so heavy that he won’t be able to get off his back or it’s possible Knight will be so heavy Clark can’t put him on his back. The last time Knight fought after coming in really heavy it was a slow paced snoozer for what it’s worth. The odds imply Clark has a 61% chance to win, a 26% chance to get a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Knight has shown a somewhat decent but entirely unspectacular floor in his two UFC decision wins, but only put up a usable score in his lone UFC finish. Now he faces a wrestler in Clark who will be looking to grind him against the fence and make this fight ugly. Knight is likely reliant on landing a knockout to score well and didn’t at all look good on the scale. Expect him to come out slow and sluggish and outside of catching Clark with a haymaker we don’t see Knight winning this fight. It will be interesting to see how the field reacts to Knight's recent disappointing decision loss as he’s generally been popular in the past. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #6
Mounir Lazzez
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)It’s now been 15 months since Lazzez last fought, which ended in a disappointing first round TKO loss to Warlley Alves, who came out throwing heavy shots and then tied Lazzez up in the clinch just seconds into the fight. He was able to get Lazzez down just over a minute in as he continued his nonstop pressure campaign, but Lazzez was able to get back up to his feet just to find himself back in the clinch of Alves. The second Lazzez was finally able to push away from the clinch, Alves started firing machine gun body kicks and crumpled Lazzez to the mat with the third violent kick. He followed it up with ground and pound as Lazzez covered up and the fight was quickly stopped.
Prior to the loss, Lazzez showed a solid chin and crisp striking in his UFC debut. He absorbed everything Abdul Razak Alhassan could throw at him early on, and then went to work with his own striking. He showed a wide array of strikes and the ability to attack from multiple angles, mixing in elbows, knees and multi-level punches and kicks. He also tacked on four takedowns and nearly six minutes of control time to go with his 114 total strikes and 98 significant. The fight could have stayed on the ground longer a couple times if not for the ref standing the fighters up so curiously quickly.
Lazzez’s last two fights before joining the UFC both ended R1 wins, and three of his last four fights have ended in first round TKOs (2-1). He now holds a 10-2 pro record, and prior to getting finished in his last fight his only career loss came in a 2019 five-round decision. Eight of his wins have come by KO and two have ended in decisions.
A solid striker, Lazzez is the kickboxing coach at Team Nogueira Dubai, but doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling. He’s never been in a fight that ended in a submission. Six of his 12 fights have ended in R1 KOs (5-1).
Ange Loosa
1st UFC Fight (0-0)After losing a decision on DWCS in September 2021, Loosa returned to the regional scene and won a decision just two weeks ago, before getting the call to make his short notice UFC debut on just four day’s notice.
Loosa was the first fighter to ever take Jack Della Maddalena to a decision. Della Maddalena finished ahead in significant strikes 108-64 and in total strikes 113-87. Loosa landed one of his four takedown attempts, while stuffing all three of Della Maddalena’s attempts. Loosa showed impressive durability in the fight as he absorbed numerous heavy punches. Loosa also nearly locked up an arm-triangle choke late in the second round and overall showed a well rounded game. Loosa notably hadn’t fought in two and a half years prior to going on DWCS.
While Loosa is just 8-2 as a pro, he’s a former training partner of Kamaru Usman, and currently trains out of Sanford MMA with guys like Gilbert Burns, so he’s gotten lots of experience outside of the Octagon. Of his eight wins, five have come by KO, one by submission, and ended in decisions. Both of his losses ended in decisions and he’s never been finished.
Loosa’s training partners have said he’s calmed down some after being kind of wild early in his career. His record backs that up and after his first six career fights all ended in first round wins, his last four matches have all gone the distance (2-2). Overall, he has a well rounded game and will mix in both striking and wrestling.
Fight Prediction:
Lazzez will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, but Loosa is six years younger than the 34-year-old Lazzez.
We generally see fighters struggle making their debut on short notice, but it’s hard not to be impressed by Loosa in general. He’s a physical freak and offers both powerful striking and solid wrestling. It remains to be seen how those skills will translate to the UFC, but the fact that he trains out of Sanford MMA and is surrounded by UFC talent on a daily basis is certainly encouraging. He fought just two weeks ago and then took this fight on just a few day’s notice, so there’s a higher likelihood he could run into cardio issues later in this fight, but in general his cardio has looked fine in his recent fights. Loosa looks to have the power and wrestling advantages in this matchup, while Lazzez looks quicker and will have a reach advantage. That should leave Lazzez looking to pick Loosa apart from the outside, while Loosa should be looking to close the distance and take the fight to the mat. This is somewhat of a high variance spot and while Lazzez looked great in his UFC debut, he came back down to earth in his last fight. We also don’t know what Loosa’s cardio will look like later in the match. If Loosa can get the fight to the ground, there’s a good chance he could pull off the upset, but that will rely on his cardio holding up. If Lazzez can keep it standing, he can likely outland his way to victory, most likely in a decision win. While Loosa has the power to finish Lazzez on the feet, he could have trouble closing the distance. Both guys are live in this spot and it feels like the odds should be closer to a coin flip, but we’ll say Lazzez wins by decision. With that said, the odds seem off so all the value is on Loosa’s side.
Our favorite bet here is Loosa’s ML at +172.
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DFS Implications:
Lazzez looked great in his debut as he landed a ton of volume and mixed in more takedowns then expected to still score 98 DraftKings points in a decision win. He’ll now be going against a far better wrestler and we don’t see Lazez finding the same grappling success that he had in that match. That will leave Lazzez reliant on being the first fighter to ever finish Loosa to return value at his higher price tag. The fact that Loosa took this fight on just a few day’s notice is certainly encouraging for Lazzez’s chances of landing a finish, but Lazzez is also coming off the first early loss of his career followed by a 15 month layoff. So he’s got red flags of his own. You always want to have some exposure to guys taking on short notice debuters, but outside of that we’re not excited about this matchup for Lazzez. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Loosa’s combination of striking and wrestling make him an interesting prospect in DFS, especially at his cheaper price tag. His main advantage in this fight will be on the mat, so it would make sense for him to look to take Lazzez down. With that said, if he’s concerned about his cardio after taking the fight on short notice, he may not want to wrestle too much as it has the potential to gas him out faster. That makes it tougher to feel confident in what his approach will be, as he’s also a dangerous striker and could choose to keep things standing. We like his upside, both from a wrestling and finishing perspective, but it’s hard to trust his floor and this fight could go a lot of ways. In general, fighters making their debut on short notice struggle, so we don’t want to get too carried away with our ownership here. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Pat Sabatini
4th UFC Fight (3-0)We saw some shuffling of opponents in this matchup before these two were eventually booked to face one another with 30 days to prepare. Sabatini had originally been scheduled to face Gavin Tucker on last week’s card, but Tucker withdrew. Laramie has actually had his last three bookings canceled, but had most recently been scheduled to face Melsik Baghdasaryan here, before Baghdasaryan withdrew and he was matched up with Sabatini instead.
Sabatini comes into this matchup on a five-fight winning streak and 3-0 in the UFC. His most recent win came in a smothering decision against Tucker Lutz, where Sabatini landed 5 of his 11 takedown attempts with nearly 11 minutes of control time and three official submission attempts. The first minute of the fight was spent out in space before Sabatini attempted his first takedown attempt. After a minute spent along the cage, Sabatini was eventually able to get Lutz to the mat and work his way to the back to hunt for a rear-naked choke. Lutz did a good job of preventing the submission, but that’s about all he was able to do as Sabatini controlled the fight on the ground. Sabatini quickly returned the fight to the mat 15 seconds into round two and again controlled Lutz for the entire round as he hunted for submissions. Lutz put up a little more resistance in round three, but Sabatini was still able to land two takedowns with over half a round of control time.
Prior to that dominating decision win, Sabatini landed a first round heel hook submission against Jamall Emmers after defeating Tristan Connelly in a decision in his UFC debut. Emmers was able to land a couple of clean shots on Sabatini that put him on his back where Emmers was able to quickly take full mount and then transition to his back where he looked for a choke. However, Sabatini used the time to recover and scrambled his way to a heel hook attempt, while Emmers looked for a toe hold. And as the old saying goes, you don’t take a toe hold to a heel hook battle. Clearly the more dangerous submission threat, Sabatini quickly forced a tap from Emmers.
In his April 2021 UFC debut against a tough grinder in Tristan Connelly, Sabatini saw the judges for the first time in five fights after his previous four all ended early. Connelly notably was moving all the way down from 170 lb to 145 lb, but generally fights at 155 lb and has competed at 145 lb twice in the past. Sabatini controlled Connelly for the majority of the fight as he totalled just under 10 minutes of control time, with one knockdown and one takedown on five attempts. He led in significant strikes just 26-19, while Connelly actually led in total strikes 87-73 and also landed his only takedown attempt.
A submission specialist, BJJ black belt, and former D1 wrestler, 12 of Sabatini’s 16 career wins have come early, with 10 submissions and two KOs. All of those finishes occurred in the first two rounds and all of his fights to last longer than 10 minutes have gone the distance. Six of those submissions were by rear-naked choke, while he also has three heel hooks and an armbar. The only time he's ever been “finished” came in a 2020 TKO due to a gnarly dislocated elbow. He’s only lost one other fight in his last 16 matches, which ended in a 2018 split-decision and he now holds an impressive 16-3 pro record with his third career loss coming in a 2015 decision in his third pro fight. Six of Sabatini’s 10 submission wins have come in the first round, but four of his last six have ended in round two. Sabatini notably submitted current UFC fighter Tony Gravely back in 2015 in the first round.
TJ Laramie
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)It’s now been 19 months since Laramie was submitted just 52 seconds into his UFC debut against a dangerous submission specialist in Darrick Minner. Since then, Laramie has had three fights booked only to see them all canceled. The first two were due to Laramie withdrawing, while one-dimensional kickboxer Melsik Baghdasaryan withdrew most recently. After preparing to fight Baghdasaryan on two different occasions, Laramie will now get the polar opposite in Pat Sabatini with a month to completely change his game plan.
It’s hard to take much away from Laramie’s UFC debut as the fight didn’t even make it out of the first minute. Laramie never even landed a strike in the match, and as he shot for a takedown, Minner jumped on a Guillotine to quickly force a tap along the fence. Laramie came into that fight as a massive -315 favorite.
Just prior to that loss, Laramie landed a post round one TKO by doctor stoppage on DWCS. He came dangerously close to getting submitted in that fight as well, as Daniel Swain nearly locked up an armbar. Laramie was able to escape and assume top position as he landed elbows and hammer fists. It didn’t appear that he landed anything that would be fight ending, but Swaim complained of a rib injury following the round and forced the doctor to stop the fight. Swaim only competed one more time after that, which was when he retired mid fight following the second round of a 2021 match against Kamuela Kirk. So quitting between rounds appears to be his thing.
Laramie won a pair of decisions just before his victory by default on DWCS, and his second most recent early win was back in 2019. He notably had a smothering five-round decision win over Charles Jourdain back in 2017, where Laramie just controlled the striker in Jourdain on the mat for 25 minutes.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Laramie has seven wins by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. He’s only submitted one opponent in his last 14 fights, and while he comes in with a wrestling-heavy approach to fighting, he’s primarily looking for ground and pound. Three of his four losses have also come early, with two KOs and one submission. All of those early losses ended in the first round, with the two KOs coming against the same opponent in 2017 and 2018. His only career decision loss came in a 2016 split-decision less than a year after Laramie turned pro. That came against a pretty suspect opponent in Vince Murdock for what it’s worth. Laramie has won the last three decisions he’s been to, with two of those going five rounds.
Overall, Laramie is a solid wrestler who wears on his opponents as fights go on. He relies on getting opponents down to the mat and beating them up with ground and pound. Despite coming off of a year and half layoff, Laramie is still just 24 years old and at a point in his career where he should be improving between every fight. He’s a BJJ brown belt, but he hasn’t been a huge submission threat so far in his career. Now he’ll face a wrestler with far more dangerous submission skills.
Fight Prediction:
Sabatini will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
Both of these two come into every fight looking to wrestle, but it’s the BJJ black belt in Sabatini who is the dangerous submission threat on the mat. That should make Laramie’s life difficult as he’ll be diving head first into the fire if he wants to implement his normal wrestling-heavy game plan. Laramie has looked vulnerable to getting submitted in each of his last two fights, and the UFC continues to test him opposed to giving him a striker that he can smother for 15 minutes. This looks like about as tough a matchup as Laramie could ask for in his second UFC fight and the betting market agrees as Sabatini has continued to see his line grow throughout the week. We’ll be seriously interested in Laramie for betting and DFS the next time he fights, assuming it comes in a more favorable matchup, but it’s tough to see him pulling off the upset here. We like Sabatini to submit him in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Sabatini Submission” at +175.
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DFS Implications:
Sabatini is a BJJ black belt and former D1 wrestler who’s only required the judges in 4 of his 16 career wins, with 10 submission victories and two KOs. All 12 of his finishes have occurred in the first two rounds. One concern when it comes to his ceiling, Sabatini is so dangerous with his grappling that he’s capable of churning out hyper-efficient wins with few to no stats behind them as we saw in his last finish, where he landed a first round submission but his only other stat was a single significant strike. That still appears to be more of an outlier performance, but it is a reminder that he can grab a leg and force a tap with a heel hook without even landing a takedown. He’ll now face another wrestler, so the potential for Sabatini to land a submission off his back is somewhat increased. He actually scored better in his recent smothering decision win on DraftKings, where he finished with 105 points, than he did in his prior finish, where he scored just 90. That shows he has a much more reliable floor on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, as he scored just 75 FanDuel points in that recent decision win. While Laramie is a decent wrestler, he’s looked somewhat prone to getting submitted, so there’s no reason to think this is a bad matchup for Sabatini to land a finish. However, it could be tougher for him to control Laramie for 15 minutes the way we saw in Sabatini’s last fight. Considering Sabatini’s expensive price tag, he’ll likely need a well timed finish to put up a big enough score to crack tournament lineups, and he’s less likely to score enough in a decision to get there. The odds imply he has a 79% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Laramie’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting lends itself far more to the DraftKings scoring system, but this sets up as an extremely tough matchup for him and he’s likely a guy we’ll be more interested in the next time he fights. Sabatini is perfectly suited to defend Laramie’s attack, so Laramie will have to put on an extremely impressive performance to get the win. Whenever you get two grapplers squaring off, there’s always the chance it turns into more of a striking battle than expected, but that likely wouldn’t benefit either guy when it comes to DFS production. So Laramie’s path to victory is a narrow one and will likely require a very low percentage result. It’s hard to see him controlling Sabatini on the mat for the entire fight, which is likely what he would need to both win and score well. The odds imply he has a 21% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Mayra Bueno Silva
6th UFC Fight (2-2-1)Moving up to 135 lb for the first time in the UFC, Bueno Silva originally dropped down to 125 lb in 2018 for her UFC debut, after fighting the majority of her pre-UFC fights up at 135 lb. She’s making the move up following a decision loss to a surging Manon Fiorot. That was the first time Fiorot had been to the judges since joining the UFC, and Bueno Silva clearly demonstrated her toughness in the fight as she casually absorbed everything Fiorot could throw at her, and she has still never been finished in her career. However, Fiorot dominated the fight from start to finish and finished ahead in significant strikes 91-48 and in total strikes 112-92, while also landing two takedowns on six attempts with over four minutes of control time. Bueno Silva did not attempt any takedowns despite her perceived grappling advantage.
Prior to that, Bueno Silva fought to a draw against Montana De La Rosa where Bueno Silva was deducted a point in the first round for a blatant fence grab. Bueno Silva led the fight in significant strikes 52-30 and total strikes 111-107, while De La Rosa went 3 for 12 on takedowns and amassed over nine minutes of control time. Had it not been for the point deduction Bueno Silva would have come out ahead, but she clearly prevented a takedown with the fence grab so it could have changed how the fight went.
Now 7-2-1 as a pro, six of Bueno Silva’s seven wins have come in the first round, five by submission, with four ending in armbars. Despite all of her submission wins, she’s yet to attempt even a single takedown in the UFC and has only looked to grapple defensively. In fairness, she’s fully capable on the feet, but has still gone just 1-2-1 in decisions in her career. She’s never been finished and is extremely durable in addition to being very dangerous off her back, which makes her a tough opponent to put away. All 10 of her career fights have ended in either first round wins or decisions.
Bueno Silva got her shot in the UFC after she landed a 62 second R1 submission win on DWCS back in 2018. She then followed that up with another first round submission win in her 2018 UFC debut against a tough grappler in Gillian Robertson, who has never been submitted outside of that.
However, due to a pair of knee surgeries, Silva was forced to take a year and a half off following the win over Robertson. When she returned in 2020, she suffered her first career loss in a high-volume brawl against Maryna Moroz that ended in a decision. Bueno Silva showed off her striking in that fight, but also showed a questionable striking defense, as she absorbed 139 significant strikes in 15 minutes. She bounced back with another first round submission win, before her recent draw against De La Rosa and decision loss to Fiorot.
Wu Yanan
5th UFC Fight (1-3)Fifteen months removed from a decision loss to Joselyne Edwards, who was making her short notice UFC debut, Yanan spent the majority of the first round narrowly avoiding getting submitted in a neverending armbar attempt that could have easily spanned a commercial break. Edwards also outlanded Yanan in all three rounds and finished ahead in significant strikes 88-58 and in total strikes 111-70.
After winning 11 of her first 12 pro fights, Yanan has since gone 1-3 in the UFC, with that lone win coming against a terrible Lauren Mueller who’s lost four straight and is no longer in the UFC. Yanan lost a decision to Gina Mazany in her 2017 UFC debut, but bounced back with a R1 armbar win over Meuller in 2018. Yanan suffered some sort of shoulder injury, possibly a dislocation, at the end of the first round against Mazany, but was still able to finish the fight. Yanan fought at 135 lb until her fight against Mueller when she dropped down to 125 lb. However, she then lost her next fight in a close split-decision, despite leading 123-93 in significant strikes, and with neither fighter landing a takedown. That loss also took place at 125 lb, but then Yana moved back up to 135 lb for her recent decision loss to Edwards.
Yanan has not been a very active fighter, with just one fight in 2018, one in 2019, none in 2020, and one in January of 2021. She’s still just 25 years old, but it’s a little surprising she’s still even in the UFC after starting off just 1-3. Looking at her entire career, she owns a 12-4 pro record, with 11 of her 12 wins coming early, including six by KO and five by submission. It’s important to keep in mind that all but one of those finishes came prior to joining the UFC against extremely inexperienced opponents who entered her fights with records of 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-3, and 0-0. So truly one of the more padded records you’ll ever see as those 10 pre-UFC finishes came against opponents with a combined 0-6 record, with seven of them making their pro debuts. Two of Yanan’s three career losses have come by decision and the only time she’s ever been finished came prior to joining the UFC in a 2016 R2 KO at the hands of current UFC fighter Yana Kunitskaya.
Fight Prediction:
Yanan will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 66” reach.
Bueno Silva is notably moving up a weight class, which always adds some uncertainty into the mix, but she looks to be the better fighter both on the feet in terms of power and durability and the mat in terms of her submission abilities. Yanan’s lone path to victory will be to outland her way to a decision win, and Bueno Silva relies a little too much on her durability at times as she allows opponents to outland her. So it wouldn’t be that surprising to see Yanan finish ahead in striking, but we still expect Bueno Silva to land the more impactful shots. That does have the potential for this fight to end in a close decision and both of these two have been involved in split decisions in the past. Six of Bueno Silva’s seven career wins have come in the first round, but considering five of those have come by submission and she’s never even attempted a takedown in the UFC, she’s likely relying on Yanan to try and take her down early. That’s certainly possible as Yanan has attempted nine takedowns in her four UFC fights, with at least one attempt in each fight, but it also makes a finish for Bueno Silva tougher to rely on. If Yanan foolishly does look to take the fight to the mat, there’s a good chance Bueno Silva lands another early armbar submission, but otherwise we expect this to end in a close decision and give the advantage to Bueno Silva to get the win.
Our favorite bet here is “Mayra Bueno Silva R1 Submission” at +700.
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DFS Implications:
Six of Bueno Silva’s seven career wins have come in the first round, with five of those ending in submissions, including four by Armbar. It’s tough to put up very big scores when you’re winning fights off your back as they generally include no takedowns, knockdowns or control time and very limited striking. Her two early wins in the UFC were good for just 91 and 95 points on DraftKings, and 106 and 112 points on FanDuel. She’s yet to win a fight that lasted longer than five minutes in her five UFC matches, and scored just 28, 35, and 37 DraftKings points in those three decisions. So priced as the second most expensive fighter on the DraftKings slate, Bueno Silva will have a very tough time returning value and will likely be dependent on either the Quick Win Bonus on DraftKings or some sort of crazy brawl that ends in a well timed late-round finish. The odds imply she has a 79% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Yanan is just 1-3 in the UFC, with her lone win coming in a first round submission against a terrible Lauren Mueller, who went 1-3 with the organization before getting cut and has now lost four straight. That finish was good for 101 DraftKings points, but it would be shocking to see Yanan finish Bueno Silva. So the question with Yanan is simply can she score decently in a decision win? WHile she’s gone just 1-3 in decisions in her entire career with her lone decision victory occurring in her second pro fight back in 2014, she scored 42, 53, and 25 DraftKings points in her three UFC decision losses. The only one of those that even came close to scoring well was a high-volume brawl in 2019 against Mizuki Inoue, where Yanan landed 123 significant strikes. It will be risky for her to boost her score with grappling, as Bueno Silva is such an armbar threat off her back. Yanan notably came dangerously close to getting armbarred in the first round of her last fight, so it should be fresh on her mind, although that fight was 15 months ago. You’ll really have to thread the needle for Yanan to be useful in DFS as she’ll need to put up a massive striking total, win a decision, and still have the majority of the other cheap underdogs fail. Even at her cheap price tag we could easily see her win a decision and get left out of tournament winning lineups. The odds imply she has a 21% chance to win, a 10% chance it comes early, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Miguel Baeza
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Baeza had originally been scheduled to face Dhiego Lima here, but Lima retired and Fialho was announced as the replacement on March 1st with plenty of time to prepare.
After winning the first 10 fights of his career, Baeza has now dropped two straight and is coming off the first early loss of his career. That came at the hands of dangerous power puncher Khaos Williams in an early third round knockout. While we saw some crazy exchanges in the match, it was overall a lower volume affair, with Khaos finishing ahead in significant strikes 49-31 and in total strikes 60-32 in a fight that lasted just over 11 minutes. Baeza attempted to grapple more in the fight and hunted for a heel hook submission for an extended period of time to close out the first round, but Khaos was able to survive and lead the dance on the feet. One of Baeza’s best weapons is his low kick, but you have to be careful throwing that blindly against a knockout specialist like Khaos, and we only saw Baeza land 17 leg kicks, after landing 44 in his previous fight. That ended up being the demise of Baeza as Khaos dropped him a minute into round three with a flurry of punches after Baeza threw two leg kicks in a row.
Prior to getting knocked out by Khaos, Baeza suffered his first career loss in a brawling high-volume decision against Santiago Ponzinibbio. Baeza started off the fight well as he more than doubled Ponzinibbio’s number of strikes landed in round one as Baeza relentlessly attacked Ponzinibbio’s calf. However, Ponzinibbio gritted through the calf kicks and began to turn it on late in round one and extended his momentum into the later rounds as he forced Baeza to stand and trade with him in a fight that never stopped gaining momentum. It ended with Ponzinibbio ahead in significant strikes 121-104, while he failed to land the only two takedown attempts in the match. Baeza looked incredibly hittable in the match, and seemed a little baffled when Ponzinibbio was able to fight through the calf kicks.
Leading up to the pair of losses, Baeza had landed three straight second round finishes in his first three UFC fights, with a pair of KOs followed by an arm-triangle choke. He’s only been to three decisions in 12 pro fights and now holds a 10-2 pro record. Seven of his wins have come by KO, one submission, and two by decision. And now he’s lost one decision and been knocked out in the third round. His eight early wins have been evenly split across the first two rounds, but three of his first round victories notably came in his first three pro fights and four of his last five early wins occurred in round two.
Baeza cracked the UFC roster with a decision win on DWCS in 2019, and then made his UFC debut in 2019 against Hector Aldana, who came in 0-2 in the UFC and hasn’t fought since. Baeza outlanded Aldana 35-8 in strikes while tacking on both a knockdown and take down. Baeza attacked Aldana’s leg until he could no longer stand half way into round two, as Baeza knocked Aldana down with a final leg kick and abruptly finished him with ground and pound as Aldana immediately shelled up.
In his second UFC fight, Baeza took on a 39-year-old Matt Brown in May 2020. Brown’s only three wins in his last nine fights came against equally suspect fighters in Diego Sanchez, Ben Saunders and Dhiego Lima. Baeza again attacked the calf early but Brown countered with some solid strikes that wobbled Baeza, who was able to recover and turn the tables on Brown. After both guys nearly finished the other in round one, Baeza knocked Brown out 18 seconds into round two. Baeza finished the fight ahead 37-33 in significant strikes and with a pair of knockdowns.
Baeza then took on Takashi Sato, who came in 2-1 in the UFC, but with those wins coming against a washed up Ben Saunders and a last minute replacement Jason Witt. Sato has been very prone to getting submitted and Baeza clearly took note of that as he put his BJJ black belt to use as he landed the first submission of his career with a late second round arm-triangle choke after beating Sato up for the first nine minutes. Baeza finished the fight ahead 40-15 in significant strikes while going one for two on takedowns.
Andre Fialho
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off a decision loss to Michel Pereira in his recent short notice UFC debut, Fialho outperformed expectations as he brought the fight to Pereira from the start, but also showed that he doesn’t offer much outside of his crisp boxing. Fialho commanded the center of the Octagon throughout the first round and forced Pereira to circle the outside of the cage, as he won the first round on all three judges’ scorecards. Pereira turned up the pace in the later rounds, and after landing just 17 significant strikes in round one, he landed 47 in round two, and 43 in round three. The fight appeared much closer than the striking totals indicate, but Pereira finished ahead in significant strikes 107-45 and 112-48 in total strikes, while landing one of his four takedown attempts. Fialho looked to be fatiguing in round two, but gutted through it and finished strong in round three, as he more than doubled his striking output in round three compared to round two. Fialho got his lead leg chewed up throughout the fight as Pereira landed all 14 of the leg strikes he threw.
Prior to the loss in his debut, Fialho had knocked out four straight opponents, with the last three ending in round one. The most recent of those came against former UFC fighter Stefan Sekulic. Fialho landed an elbow off of one leg as Sekulic looked to take him down, then completed the finish with two stiff right hands as Sekulic fell to the mat. Fialho also knocked out another former UFC fighter in James Vick during that four fight stretch.
Fialho is now 14-4 as a pro, with 11 wins by KO, one by submission, and just two decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has two decision losses, with all four of his career losses coming against fighters who are currently or were previously in the UFC (2016 R1 KO vs. Chidi Njokuani, 2019 R3 KO vs. Chris Curtis, 2020 R3 DEC vs. Antonio dos Santos Jr. and 2022 R3 DEC vs. Michel Pereira).
His second most recent loss was a 2020 decision against former UFC fighter Antonio dos Santos Jr., who requested that the fight be moved up to a 180 lb catchweight after it had been scheduled at 170 lb. Dos Santos checked in right at 180 lb for that fight, while Fialho was just 177.8 lb, giving Dos Santos a size advantage. Dos Santos was able to land a ton of kicks on Fialho, although Fialho came close to finishing Dos Santos in the second round. Fialho gassed out hard in round three but Dos Santos was also too tired to capitalize. They both limped to the finish line where Dos Santos won a unanimous decision.
That loss came at the tail end of a three fight losing streak, although one of the losses was later overturned to a No Contest. That skid began in 2019 against Chris Curtis, who finished Fialho in the third round via TKO. Fialho again looked to tire out late in that fight as Curtis put it on him and saw Fialho shooting for half-hearted desperation takedowns towards the end. Curtis finally finished him with just 43 seconds remaining on the clock. In his next fight, Fialho lost a two-round decision in the PFL playoffs, however the results were then overturned to a No Contest when his opponent tested positive for steroids.
Fialho has a background in boxing and trains out of Sanford MMA. He’s a BJJ purple belt, and he’s not much of a submission threat with just one win by submission on his record. He’s primarily an early knockout threat, with 10 of his 12 finishes having occurred in the first round, while the other two ended in the first half of round two. He’s lost his last three fights that have made it past the midway mark of round two, and four if you count the loss that was later overturned to a No Contest.
Overall, Fialho is essentially a one-dimensional boxer, but still just 28 years old, so he has time to round out his skillset. He’s got good hands, but he can be a little heavy on his lead leg and has looked prone to getting that lead leg chewed up. He’s most dangerous in the opening five minutes and has been prone to fading down the stretch at times.
Fight Prediction:
Baeza will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 74” reach.
Both fighters come into this matchup looking to bounce back from a loss, but the biggest difference is that Fialho outperformed expectations in his recent debut and went to a hardfought decision, while Baeza got knocked out for the first time in his career. Because of that, we could see Baeza approaching this next fight a little more tentatively, especially considering he’s trying to avoid a three fight skid. Keeping in mind that Baeza is a BJJ black belt, it would make sense for him to grapple more against a one-dimensional boxer like Fialho. Also, Fialho has looked prone to getting his lead leg attacked, which normally would be music to the ears of Baeza who loves to attack his opponents with leg strikes. However, we could see Baeza slightly more cautious when it comes to spamming leg strikes after getting knocked out while he threw a leg kick in his last fight. It still makes sense for Baeza to attack Fialho’s calf, he’ll just need to be more careful with his approach. While Fialho has solid hands and has proven himself to be a knockout threat, he has a 3” shorter reach than Baeza’s last opponent, Khaos Williams, and also isn’t quite as lethal. That should at least make Baeza’s life somewhat easier going into this next matchup. It will be interesting to see how both Baeza and his chin respond to the recent KO loss, but we expect he’ll take fewer chances and focus entirely on getting the win. Whether that’s a more cautious striking approach, a grappling-heavy gameplan, or a combination of the two remains to be seen. If he slips up for even a second, Fialho is fully capable of making him pay for it with his consciousness, but we’re leaning that Baeza gets back on track here and utilizes his more well-rounded skill set to get the win, likely in a close fight. If Fialho does pull off the upset, look for it to come by KO in the first round and a half.
Our favorite bet here is “Baeza Wins and Over 1.5 Rounds” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
With all three of his UFC victories coming in the second round, Baeza has unsurprisingly scored decently when he wins. However, he still failed to crack 100 DraftKings points in two of those victories and is now coming off back-to-back losses, so it’s getting tougher to rely on him returning value at his semi-expensive price tag. Also concerning, Baeza is coming off the first KO loss of his career and we often see fighters come in more conservatively in their next fight in that situation. After starting his career 10-0, Baeza has now lost two in a row, so he’ll likely be more concerned with getting a win of any type than putting on an impressive fan-friendly performance. He’s also generally popular in DFS, which further reduces our interest in playing him heavily in tournaments. Working in his favor, Fialho has been knocked out twice in his career and is a one-dimensional boxer. So Baeza, a BJJ black belt, should have a major advantage on the mat if he looks to grapple more. That opens up the possibility for Baeza to win a grappling-heavy decision and still score well, just keep in mind he’s only landed two takedowns in his last six fights, so that’s still a long shot. It’s far more likely that Baeza would struggle to score well at all in a decision. The only time he’s gone the distance in his five UFC fights was in a brawling loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio, and even if Baeza had won the decision, he still would have scored just 72 DraftKings points and 82 points on FanDuel. It appears safe to say that he’ll need a finish to be useful in tournaments and even then there are plenty of ways he gets outscored and left out of winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Fialho is a one-dimensional power puncher who has landed finishes in 12 of his 14 career wins. Ten of those finishes have come in round one, with the other two ending in the first half of round two. He scored just 20 DraftKings points in his recent decision loss in his UFC debut, and even at his cheaper price tag it’s hard to see him being useful without a finish. Working in his favor, Baeza was just knocked out in his last fight, but that’s also the only time Baeza has been finished in his career. While Fialho looked better than we expected in his recent short notice debut against Michel Pereira, he still got outlanded 107-45 in significant strikes and isn’t a guy that’s going to put up huge striking totals or land many takedowns. He’ll likely need to land a knockout in the first eight minutes to win this fight, but if he is able to pull that off he’ll likely end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut with a perfect 13-0 pro record, Omargadzhiev is coming off a first round submission win on DWCS in October 2021. He’s only been past the second round twice in his career and only once in his last 11 fights. He has eight wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. Seven of his last nine finishes have come in the first round.
In his last fight, Omargadzhiev didn’t waste a ton of time getting the fight to the mat as he landed a takedown less than a minute in. He was then able to control his opponent on the ground for the whole round before leaning back into a leg lock and finishing the fight with a kneebar late in the round. He finished ahead 10-2 in significant strikes and 26-5 in total strikes as he methodically found the late first round finish.
Omargadzhiev is a Dhagestani Combat Sambo World Champion who trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris, France—the same gym Ciryl Gane came out of. He started off in freestyle wrestling as a child before transitioning to MMA as a teenager. He’s fully capable of submitting opponents, but more often finishes fights with ground and pound as he often looks to assume either the full mount or the crucifix position to force stoppages.
While Omargadzhiev turned pro back in 2013, he did get knocked out in the European MMA Championships in 2018, but that is listed on his Amateur record. He also somehow won the 2018 Russian Amateur MMA Championships in 2018, five years after he turned pro, so apparently he’s a ringer.
Overall, Omargadzhiev is a smothering wrestler who does a great job of landing takedowns and controlling his opponents for extended periods of time. All 11 of his finishes have come in the first two rounds, but we also saw him go three rounds without any sign of fading in his second most recent match. He hasn’t been the most active fighter, with just one fight in 2020 and one in 2021, but he’s basically been fighting once a year since 2019.
Caio Borralho
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Also making his debut off a DWCS win, Borralho’s last two fights were actually both on DWCS, spaced just three weeks apart. In his first appearance on the show, Borralho competed at 185 lb and took on Aaron Jeffery, who’s only two career losses had come against UFC fighters Sean Brady and Brendan Allen. Jeffery was able to control Borralho along the fence for over six minutes, but was unable to land either of his takedown attempts, while Borralho took Jeffery down three times on four attempts. Overall, it was largely an uneventful fight, especially the second half, with extended periods of time spent in the clinch along the cage and over eight and a half minutes of combined control time. Borralho did land a few decent counterstrikes early in the match and finished ahead in significant strikes 68-36 and 124-88 in total strikes. He was able to find himself on Jeffery’s back on the feet a couple of times, but basically just gave up the position. After winning a decision, Borralho said he got tired in the third round but promised it wouldn’t happen again. Dana White wasn’t impressed by the performance either and did not award him a contract.
Borralho came back on the show just three weeks later, but that time he competed at 205 lb against an unimpressive Jesse Murray. Borralho’s karate style stance and speed gave Murray trouble finding his range, while Borralho was able to land several clean punches 90 seconds into the first round that dropped Murray. Borralho quickly finished the fight with ground and pound to earn a UFC contract. While Borralho showed decent power in the finish, we were more unimpressed by Murray than overly impressed by Borralho. Following that loss, Murray is now 8-4, and just 3-3 in his last six. All four of his losses have come by KO in the first two rounds.
Borralho started his career at 170 lb in 2014 before moving up to 185 lb in 2018. His only career fight at 205 lb came in his last match that he took on short notice and he’ll now be dropping back down to his regular 185 weight. Prior to that recent finish, Borralho won three straight decisions, after his first six career wins all came early. He hasn’t lost in his last 10 fights and his only career loss came in a decision in his second pro fight back in 2015. Borralho is 10-1 plus a No Contest as a pro. Four of his wins have ended in KOs, three in submissions, and three more in decisions. Six of his seven finishes came in round one with the other ending in round three. Prior to his recent KO win on DWCS, he hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2018, while he landed a pair of first round submissions in 2019. Only three of his seven finishes came against opponents with winning records.
Borralho had originally been scheduled to make his debut back in December against Dustin Stoltzfus and then in January against Jamie Pickett, but ended up withdrawing both times, so this will be his third attempt at stepping side of the UFC Octagon. He’s a Judo brown belt and a BJJ black belt and has spent a lot of time training with Demian Maia. He’s fairly well rounded both on the feet and the mat, but not overly impressive as anything and has shown questionable cardio in the third round of fights. With that said, he also won a five-round decision in his last fight before going on DWCS. He’s only landed one finish beyond the first round in his career and that occurred in his third pro fight back in 2016 when he was still fighting down at 170 lb. Overall, he fights pretty cautiously and doesn’t take many risks.
Fight Prediction:
Omargadzhiev will have a 3” height advantage, but Borralho will have a 4” reach advantage.
These two have combined for just a single loss in their respective careers, but we’ve been more impressed by the undefeated fighter in Omargadzhiev. While Omargadzhiev isn’t an exceptional striker, he’s a dominant wrestler and a Combat Sambo World Champion. He does a great job on controlling opponents on the mat and has been very efficient with his takedown attempts. While Borralho is a Judo and BJJ black belt, he’ll likely want to keep this fight standing. We expect Borralho to come in with a cautious approach focussed on controlling the distance and avoiding getting taken down. That will likely result in a slower start to this match, but look for Omargadzhiev to eventually get it to the ground once he can get his hands on Borralho. With that said, Borralho has done a good job of defending takedowns so far in his career, and if he can keep things standing it will completely change the trajectory of this match. We haven’t seen Borralho operate off his back much, so it’s tougher to know how those exchanges will look if the fight gets there, but he’s a BJJ black belt, so we don’t expect him to look helpless. We have seen him fade later in fights at times, making a third round finish a little more likely despite the fact that all 11 of Omargadzhiev’s career finishes have come in the first two rounds. There’s also a decent chance that between Borralho’s potentially cautious approach and grappling skills that he can ride this one out to see a decision. With both guys making their debuts following wins on DWCS, it’s hard to have complete confidence in either one of them, but we like Omargadzhiev to out wrestle his way to victory. Just keep in mind he’ll be in trouble if he can’t get this fight to the ground and Borralho has shown a pretty decent takedown defense.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at +140.
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DFS Implications:
Omargadzhiev’s wrestling heavy approach is a great fit for the DraftKings scoring system, as he generally accrues large amounts of control time and a decent number of ground strikes. He also has the ability to rack up takedowns and 11 of his 13 pro wins have come early, so he still makes for an interesting play in all DFS formats. He’s making his UFC debut against another debuting DWCS fighter, which makes this a higher variance spot with a wide range of outcomes. Omargadzhiev is a Combat Sambo World Champion and he relies on his wrestling to win fights. So if Borralho’s takedown defense can hold up, things could go sideways quickly for Omargadzhiev. Borralho has been a tough guy to take down on the regional scene and is a BJJ and Judo black belt who has spent time training with Damien Maia, so it’s certainly not an easy matchup for Omargadzhiev to land a ton of takedowns, but he’s been very efficient with his attempts in the past and will have the size advantage. If he can find wrestling success like he normally does, then he has the ability to score well on DraftKings even without a finish, and he likely doesn’t need a slate-breaking score at his mid-range price tag to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Borralho’s fighting style appears less conducive to DFS scoring, as he’s a patient counter striker who doesn’t take a ton of risks. He prides himself on being an MMA nerd who fights smart, and while 7 of his 10 career wins have come early, three of his last four have gone the distance. We’ve seen him fade in the third round of fights, which is also troublesome. Now he faces an undefeated opponent who will be looking to wrestle the whole time, and Borralho will likely need a finish to score well, even at his cheaper price tag. With that in mind, only one of his seven career finishes came after the first round and that was back in 2016 when he was fighting down at 170 lb. The fact that he’s going against another debuting fighter makes this a higher variance spot, so it makes sense to have some exposure in tournaments even if we’re not overly excited about him. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Vicente Luque
18th UFC Fight (14-3)This will a rematch of a 2016 fight where Luque handed Muhammad the only early loss of his career in a quick first round knockout. The fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it, but Luque led finished ahead 9-3 in striking before dropping Muhammad with a left hook and then putting him out with ground and pound just 79 seconds in as he dribbled his head off the canvas. We didn’t see any takedowns attempted and Muhammad never got going in the match. That was Luque’s 5th UFC fight and Muhammad’s 3rd. Since then, Luque has gone 10-2 and Muhammad has gone 10-1 with a No Contest. However, while they records have been similar, 9 of Luque’s last 12 fights have ended early (9-0), while 10 of Muhammad’s last 12 have gone the distance (9-1). Luque has won just a single decision during that 12 fight stretch, while Muhammad has landed just one finish over that time. So they’re essentially polar opposites when it comes to how they win fights.
After the win over Muhammad, Luque lost a decision to Leon Edwards, but has since gone 10-1 in his last 11 fights, with the one loss coming in a 2019 decision against Stephen Thompson. Following that loss, Luque has finished four straight opponents, and while he’s generally known for his striking, his last two finishes ended in first round submissions. The first of those came against Tyron Woodley, who had lost three straight coming in and was released following his fourth straight loss, but he had notably never been submitted before. Luque’s most recent win came against Michael Chiesa, who was able to take Luque down on his first attempt two minutes into the fight. However, as Chiesa looked to lock in a rear-naked choke he got too high and Luque was able to reverse the position and lock in a D’Arce Choke, which is Luque’s move.
Of Luque’s 14 UFC wins, eight have ended in knockouts, five in submissions, and just one by decision. All three of his UFC losses have gone the distance. Of his 13 finishes, eight (62%) have come in round one, three (23%) have ended in round two, and two (15%) have come in round three. Looking at his entire career, Luque is 21-7-1 as a pro, with 11 wins by KO, eight by submission, and two decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but he was submitted twice earlier in his career, prior to joining the UFC (R3 2010 & R3 2013). His other five losses have all gone the distance.
Luque has been taken down 14 times on 39 opponent attempts (36%) in his 17 UFC fights. However, half of those takedowns came in his 2015 UFC debut against a solid wrestler in Michael Graves, who landed 7 of his 10 takedown attempts against Luque. Since then, Luque has only been grounded 7 times on 29 attempts (24%). With that said, three of his last four opponents to attempt a takedown on him have landed one, but no one has gotten him down more than once since 2017 when Leon Edwards landed 3 of his 12 attempts. Overall, Luque has a decent takedown defense, but it’s certainly not impenetrable. Luque lost both of the fights where he was taken down more than once, but those occurred in 2015 and 2017.
Amazingly, this will be the first five-round five of Luque’s UFC career. He’s only even seen the third round in six of his 17 UFC fights (3-3) and he’s lost three of the four decisions he’s been to since joining the organization in 2015, with the line win coming a 2019 split decision over Mike Perry. He does have a pair of third round TKO wins, but he notably didn’t have to wrestle much defensively in either of those, as the first was against Bryan Barberena, who failed to land his only takedown attempt, while the more recent was against Niko price, who went 1 for 4 on his attempts. It will be interesting to see what Luque’s cardio looks like in the championship rounds if he gets there.
Overall, Luque is a powerful high-volume striker who averages 5.65 SSL/min, while absorbing 5.67/min. He rarely lands takedowns, with zero in his last 11 fights, but he has landed 10 knockdowns in his 14 UFC fights, while only getting knocked down twice himself. Luque was awarded his black belts in both BJJ and Luta Livre in 2021.
Belal Muhammad
16th UFC Fight (11-3, NC)Coming off the highest profile win of his career, Muhammad defeated Stephen Thompson in a three round decision this past December. Despite coming into the fight with just a 28% career takedown accuracy and Thompson entering with a 73% takedown defense, Muhammad was able to get Thompson down seven times on nine attempts in the fight and control him for nearly 12 minutes. It was a smothering performance by Muhammad and unquestionable an impressive win, but it was also a surprisingly poor performance from Thompson, who hasn’t looked great in either of his last two fights and is now 39 years old. In addition to his impressive grappling stats, Muhammad finished ahead in significant strikes 58-19 and in total strikes 171-51. Prior to that loss, Thompson had only been taken down 10 total times in 17 UFC fights. However, prior to losing to Muhammad, Thompson was taken down three times on six attempts from Gilbert Burns, and Thompson has now been taken down more times in his last two UFC fights than his first 16 combined.
Prior to that win, Muhammad won a decision over another older fighter in Demian Maia. Maia amazingly went 1 for 21 on his takedown attempts in the fight and looked exhausted in the back half as Belel easily took over in the later rounds. Maia was able to win the first round on two of the judges’ score cards through his one landed takedown and half a round of control time, and we only saw a combined seven significant strikes landed in the first five minutes. Muhammad increased his output some after that and finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 45-21 and in total strikes 92-23, but the majority of the fight was spent with Muhammad simply shedding an exhausted Maia off of him. Muhammad entered that fight with an already impressive 85% takedown defense, which has since risen to 91% following that performance.
Three months prior to that decision win, Muhammad absorbed one of the worst eye pokes in recent memory as Leon Edwards tried to take home a souvenir. Muhammad requested but was not granted a rematch with Edwards, who has since returned to his full time job of watching fights fall through as he’s now had six canceled fights and a No Contest to just one complete fight in his last eight bookings.
Prior to his recent match against Edwards, Muhammad took on a struggling Dhiego Lima, who recently retired. Muhammad landed a career high 129 significant strikes, but absorbed a massive 26 strikes to his legs. That significant striking total blew away Muhammad’s previoius career high of 88 significant strikes landed in a match. So just to recap, Muhammad’s last three wins came against a 38-year-old, a 43-year-old, and a 32-year-old that just retired.
Since joining the UFC in 2016, 11 of Muhammad’s 15 fights have ended in decisions. His only fights not to go the distance were a 2016 R3 TKO in his second UFC fight against an opponent who came in with a 1-1 UFC record and never competed again, the 2019 R1 KO loss to Luque, a 2019 R3 submission win over Takashi Sato, who is 2-3 in the UFC and has been finished in four of his five pro losses, and the No Contest against Leon Edwards. Ignoring the No Contest for a moment, 10 of his last 11 fights have gone the distance. Impressively, he’s only lost once in those 11 fights, which came in a 2019 decision against Geoff Neal. The only times Muhammad has failed to see a third round in his 15 UFC fights, were the 2016 R1 KO loss to Luque and the more recent No Contest against Edwards.
A big part of Muhammad’s game is to shoot for a ton of takedowns and he averages almost seven attempts per 15 minutes, although he has a poor 33% takedown accuracy. He relies on his cardio to outwork his opponents and doesn’t offer much in terms of power. One interesting thing to note for Muhammad in this fight is that he’ll be competing during Ramadan, so he’ll be fasting from dawn to dusk throughout the month of April. While that may seem like an obstacle, this will actually be his 4th time fighting during Ramadan, with his previous three ending in a 2013 R2 TKO win (3rd pro fight, pre UFC), a 2016 R4 TKO (pre-UFC), and 2019 R3 DEC. So the longest fight of his career actually occurred during Ramadan and Muhammad was still able to land a finish. That was the only time Muhammad has been past the third round in his career and the only other fight he’s has that was scheduled to go five rounds was the No Contest against Leon Edwards that was stopped early in round two.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’11” but Luque will have a 3” reach advantage.
After suffering the only early loss of his career the first time these two fought when Luque knocked Muhammad out in 79 seconds, it would be surprising if Muhammad was content with making this a striking battle. Instead we expect him to be looking to utilize his wrestling to take Luque down and wear him out as much as possible. While Muhammad landed seven takedown in his last fight, that’s the same number that he landed in his seven previous fights combined and it remains to be seen if he’s made major improvements to his takedown accuracy or if Stephen Thompson’s takedown defense is falling apart. Most likely the truth lies somewhere in the middle. If Luque can keep the fight standing, Muhammad has no chance to win a pure striking battle, and if it does remain entirely on the feet, look for Luque to knock Muhammad out once again. With that said, if Muhammad can avoid getting knocked out early, he’ll likely at least find some grappling success, and that’s where things get interesting. Neither guy has been prone to gassing out, but we still give the cardio advantage to Muhammad, and if he can steal one of the early rounds through takedowns and take Luque into the championship rounds, there’s a good chance Muhammad’s grappling will be more effective as the fight goes on. His most likely path to victory will be to grind out a close decision win on the back of takedowns and control time. That’s easier said than done as it will require Muhammad to avoid getting finished both on the feet and the mat, but it’s much harder to see him finishing Luque. On the other side of things, Luque has already proven he can finish Muhammad, but that fight also took place five and a half years ago. Overall, Luque is the much more impressive fighter, the far superior striker, and even the more dangerous submission threat. So it’s hard not to take Luque here when Muhammad’s lone path to victory is to grind out a five-round grappling heavy decision, but we do think both guys have somewhat of a shot to win this fight as Muhammad has also been durable for the majority of his career and we slightly favor him to win a decision if it does go the distance. This fight has the potential to look completely one-sided if Luque can keep it standing or extremely close if Muhammad can find some success with his grappling, but we’re going with the superior fighter in Luque who has far more ways to win and we like him to get a finish in the first three rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Luque ITD” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Luque has been a consistent DFS contributor who’s averaged 107 DraftKings points in his 14 UFC wins, with 13 of those victories coming early. His lone decision victory scored just 64 points on DraftKings and 70 points on FanDuel, and even if we extend that pace over five rounds, he’s still looking at just 86 DraftKings points and 104 FanDuel points. That’s just a one fight sample, but it shows there’s at least a chance he could win a decision and fail to return value. With that said, Luque very rarely goes the distance and 19 of his 21 pro wins have come early. He’s already finished Belal Muhammad once in the past, which occured in a 2016 R1 KO the first time these two fight. That’s the only time Muhammad has been finished in his career, and Luque scored 104 DraftKings points and 117 points on FanDuel in the win. We expect Muhammad to come in with a grappling-heavy gameplan, which could make it tougher for Luque to put up a huge striking total and just further supports the idea he needs a finish. Further supporting that idea, Luque hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 11 fights. This will be the first five round fight of Luque’s career and he’s never been past the third round. We don’t really know what his cardio will look like in the championship round and now he’s going against an opponent who relies on wearing down his opponents. That adds some additional uncertainty into the mix, and there’s a good chance Luque needs a finish to both win and score well. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Muhammad is coming off a career best performance where he smothered Stephen Thompson on the mat for 12 minutes as Muhammad landed seven takedowns and 171 total strikes. That was good for 132 DraftKings points and 102 points on FanDuel. Prior to that, Muhammad had averaged 84 DraftKings points in his first 10 UFC wins, with just one score above 95 points. While he has been an unspectacular scorer throughout his career, he’s still generally active enough to score well over five rounds, as he mixes in striking and takedowns. If we look at his second worst DraftKings score (71), that still would have been good for 99 DraftKings points and 118 points on FanDuel extended over the course of five rounds, so when you factor in Muhammad’s cheap price tag, he would most likely end up in tournament winning lineups with a win of any type. He’s not much of a finisher, so Muhammad’s best chacne to win will be to rely on his wrestling and wear Luque out for five rounds. That type of performance would score significantly better on DraftKings than FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in the first round.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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