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Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Luana Santos
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut following a pair of LFA wins, Santos only turned pro 25 months ago and has just six fights on her record, winning five of those. Two of her last three and three of her last five fights went the distance, and four of her last five matches made it to the third round.
Now 5-1 as a pro, Santos and three submission wins and two decision victories. Two of those submissions occurred in round one, while the other came in round three. She’s yet to face any decent competition and all of her opponents came into her fights with very limited experience. Santos’ first three pro fights were at 135 lb, before she dropped down to 125 lb for her last three.
Overall, Santos started training Judo when she was eight years old and it shows in her fighting style, as she’s primarily a grappler and loves looking for Judo throws, which tend to work less and less in MMA as you face tougher competition. She’s a Judo black belt, but just a BJJ blue belt, and loves to look for Americana submissions out of the scarf hold position, similar to Montserrat Conejo, who’s also fighting on this card. Santos hasn’t looked very dangerous off her back or on the feet, but her striking does appear to be improving somewhat and she’s still just 23 years old and very early in career. So expect to see her game evolve every time she steps inside the Octagon, but she is still very green at this stage in her career.
Juliana Miller
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Veronica Hardy, Miller showed just how green she still is when it comes to MMA. Hardy was able to take Miller down on all four of her attempts, control her for over seven and a half minutes, and double her up in significant strikes 62-30, while Miller failed to land any of her three takedown attempts but did finish with three official submissions attempts. Prior to that, Miller landed a third round TKO against Brogan Walker to win the finale on The Ultimate Fighter. Miller was able to land all four of her takedowns in that match and control Walker for nearly 10 minutes leading up to the late finish. Miller only has five official pro fights to her name, although she did also have two exhibition wins on the show. She secured her spot in the finals with a second round submission win after winning a close decision in her first fight on the show. Miller turned pro in 2019 and landed a pair of first round submissions, before losing a 2021 decision before going on TUF.
Still just 3-2 as a pro, Miller has one TKO win and two by submission. She’s never been finished, but lost both of the decisions she’s been to. Three of her last four amateur fights were at 115 lb, but all of her pro and TUF fights have been at 125 lb, and at 5’7” she’s certainly not small for the 125 lb division.
Overall, Miller is an aggressive fighter who will push forward throwing wild strikes and looking to take opponents down. She’s a BJJ brown belt and primarily a grappler, but has also shown a willingness to take part in striking exchanges at times, despite having a near non-existent striking defense. In her two UFC fights, Miller landed 4 of her 7 takedown attempts (57.1% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on all four of their attempts (0% defense). Miller is so green when it comes to MMA that we should expect some bumps in the road as she continues to try and grow as a fighter, but it will be interesting to see what improvements she’s made over the last five months since we last saw her.
Fight Prediction:
Miller will have a 1” height advantage, but Santos will have a 2” reach advantage. Miller is four years older than the 23-year-old Santos.
There are a lot of similarities between these two, as they’re both young, green grapplers who got brought into the UFC very early into their pro careers. Neither of them are great strikers, but Santos is the more technical of the two. We’re skeptical that Santos’ judo throws will get her very far at the UFC level, and we could see Miller just taking her back if she tries one. So much of Santos’ game has been predicated around that one elementary technique that it’s hard to get very excited about her UFC outlook. However, Miller looked terrible in her last fight, so it’s hard to trust her either. The striking exchanges will be interesting (i.e. low-level), but look for this fight to hit the mat before too long. Miller looks like more of a submission threat and is more dangerous off her back than Santos, so if anyone lands a finish it will likely be Miller. If it goes the distance, the winner will likely be determined by who finishes ahead in control time, and we could see that going either way. Ultimately, when you lock two inexperienced fighters in a cage you’re going to get a lot of inherent volatility, but we’d rather be holding the plus money ticket in those situations, so give us Miller in this one and we’ll say she wins by submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Miller SUB” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Santos is making her UFC debut with just six pro fights under her belt and only turned pro two years ago. She’s still very green and has yet to face any legitimate competition, so the potential for her to be a complete fraud is squarely in play. She has a judo background and loves to go for those head and arm throws that don’t work nearly as often once you start facing higher level opponents. She doesn’t land much in the way of striking volume, which leaves her reliant on landing finishing to score well on FanDuel. However, she has shown the ability to land takedowns and control opponents on the mat, which keeps her in play on DraftKings even if this fight goes the distance. Working against her, Miller is also a grappler and will gladly look for submissions off her back, which will make things dicier for Santos. It also remains to be seen how Santos will handle the pressure of making her UFC debut. Considering how terrible Miller’s striking defense is, it would make sense for Santos to lean more on her striking than she has in the past, but she doesn’t appear to have much in the way of knockout power. Ultimately, this is a volatile, low-level fight that could go a lot of ways, creating a wide range of potential scoring outcomes. The odds imply Santos has a 57% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Miller scored 115 DraftKings points and 111 points on FanDuel in her grappling-heavy third round TKO win in her UFC debut, but then scored just 18 DraftKings points in her recent decent loss. She offers wrestling upside, which is especially beneficial on DraftKings, but her striking defense is terrible and she’s a liability on the feet. Luckily for her here, Santos isn’t a great striker either and also relies on getting fights to the mat to win. We should see some interesting scrambles during the grappling exchanges and Miller is so tall and lanky that we could see her take Santos’ back as Santos attempts a judo throw. That has the potential to open up submission opportunities for Miller, or at least take control on the mat. Miller has shown a massively wide range of scoring potential and that should continue here, but she makes for an interesting cheap play in DFS tournaments with lots of grappling upside. Her recent dud should also help to suppress her ownership, despite the fact she’s taking on a UFC newcomer. The odds imply Miller has a 43% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Da'Mon Blackshear
4th UFC Fight (1-1-1)Blackshear had originally been scheduled to fight Brady Hiestand here, but Hiestand dropped out and Johnson was announced as the replacement on Monday night.
Coming off his first UFC win, Blackshear landed a second round TKO against Luan Lacerda, who foolishly committed to looking for a leg lock while Blackshear punched him in the face until the fight was stopped. Prior to that, Blackshear lost a decision to a debuting Farid Basharat, who took Blackshear down three times and controlled him for five and a half minutes. Looking back one fight further, Blackshear fought to a draw in his short notice UFC debut against Youssef Zalal. Before making his UFC debut, Blackshear won four straight fights, with three of those ending in submissions.
Now 13-5-1 as a pro, Blackshear has two wins by TKO, eight submissions, and three decision victories. All five of his losses went the distance, with one of those notably coming against UFC fighter Pat Sabatini and another against former UFC fighter Kris Moutinho. Despite 10 of Blackshear’s 13 pro wins coming early, all but one of his 19 pro fights have made it out of the first round, with 12 making it to round three, and nine going the distance. He has one first round submission win, four in round two, two in round three, and one in round four. Both of his TKO wins also ended in round two. Blackshear has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb, with five of his earlier career matches up at 145 lb. However, he hasn’t competed at 145 lb since losing a 2018 decision to Pat Sabatini.
Overall, Blackshear is a BJJ black belt and a former high school wrestler who relies very heavily on his grappling. He scrambles well on the mat and does a good job of transitioning and looking for submissions from a variety of positions. Most of his fights end up playing out as grappling battles, with five of his last seven wins ending in submissions. We saw him get exposed on the feet in the third round of his debut against a not very dangerous opponent in Zalal, who fought to seven straight decisions in the UFC before being cut. That leaves us concerned with how Blackshear will do in striking exchanges moving forward at the UFC level. Blackshear had been training at Jackson Wink in New Mexico, but left the gym before his recent win and moved to Miami to look for a new home. In his three UFC fights, Blackshear landed 3 of his 13 takedown attempts (23.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 5 of their 11 attempts (54.5% defense).
Jose Johnson
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Johnson only stepped into this fight on Monday night, but had previously been set to make his UFC debut against Garrett Armfield on February 25th before he withdrew due to a medical issue. That’s actually the second straight Johnson had been booked to make his debut before withdrawing, and he had also been booked to face Vince Morales back in November 2022, but dropped out there as well. It’s now been almost exactly a year since Johnson last competed, when he won a decision on DWCS, despite getting taken down six times and controlled for over eight minutes in the fight. That was actually his second appearance on the show and he originally went on back in 2020, but got dominated on the mat for three rounds by Ronnie Lawrence, who took Johnson down 12 times on 17 attempts. Johnson then returned to the regional scene and won a decision of his own, before getting knocked out in just 32 seconds by Mana Martinez. Johnson bounced back from the loss with a second round submission win over a wrestler in Mo Miller, who also fought on DWCS back in 2021. Johnson then landed a 12 second first round knockout leading up to his recent decision win on DWCS.
Now 15-7 as a pro, Johnson has eight wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and five decision wins. All eight of his knockouts have come in round one, while both of his submission wins ended in round two. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2021), submitted three times (all in R1), and has three decision losses. Twenty of his 22 pro fights have either ended in the first round (8-4) or gone the distance (5-3), with the other two ending in second round submission wins. Johnson also had a ridiculously extensive amateur career where he went 68-12. Johnson has fought at 145 lb and even 155lb, but most of his career has been spent at 135 lb, despite him being 6’0” tall.
Overall, Johnson is a tall, rangy striker, but struggles immensely with being taken down. He’s very dangerous on the feet, especially in the first round, but time after time we see him struggle when it comes to defensive wrestling. In his two DWCS fights, he got taken down 18 times on 26 attempts (30.8% defense) and controlled for over 18 minutes. When he’s not getting taken down, Johnson throws dangerous strikes from range and slicing elbows and knees out of the clinch. He’s talked about making improvements to his wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and to his credit he submitted a wrestler in his second most recent finish. However, he still struggles with being taken down and we expect opponents to continue to attack him in that area.
Fight Prediction:
Johnson will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
Johnson’s Achilles' heel has been his defensive wrestling and now he’s stepping in on very short notice and facing a dangerous grappler in Blackshear. That’s a recipe for disaster for Johnson and seemingly leaves him reliant on landing an early finish to pull off the upset. Working against him there, Blackshear has never been finished. It’s not exactly a hot take, but we like Blackshear to submit Johnson.
Our favorite bet here is “Blackshear ITD” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Blackshear is coming off his first UFC win in a second round TKO that was good for 114 DraftKings points. His previous two UFC fights both went the distance (0-1-1), where he only scored 42 and 35 DraftKings points in a loss and a tie respectively. Blackshear’s grappling-heavy approach to fighting will typically score better on DraftKings than FanDuel the longer fights go, but with 10 of his 13 pro wins coming early, he offers finishing upside on both sites. Johnson has poor defensive wrestling and got taken down 18 times on 26 attempts (30.8% defense) and controlled for over 18 minutes between his two DWCS appearances, and has also been submitted three times in his career. So Blackshear has tons of grappling upside and a really good shot at locking up a submission. Johnson also stepped into this fight on very short notice, so his cardio will be a question mark and he had almost no time to prepare for the grappling attack of Blackshear. The odds imply Blackshear has a 71% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Johnson is a tall, rangy striker who struggles to defend takedowns, but has decent finishing ability on the feet. Ten of his 15 career wins have come early, with eight first round knockouts and two second round submissions, but he’s also been finished in four of his seven pro losses. Nine of his last 10 finishes have come by R1 KO, and with the amount of time he spends on his back, it will generally be tougher for him to score well in decisions. However, he accrued a ridiculous six reversals in his most recent decision win, which allowed him to score 98 DraftKings points, but that was only good for 61 points on FanDuel. This looks like a really tough matchup for Johnson, who just stepped into the matchup on Monday night. Blackshear has never been knocked out and will be looking to take Johnson down and submit him. However if Johnson does win, it likely means he landed a finish, at which point it would be tougher to see him getting left out of winning lineups at his cheap price tag. We’ll be more interested in playing Johnson in the future when he gets a better stylistic matchup and has a full camp to prepare. The odds imply Johnson has a 29% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Jaqueline Amorim
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from her first career loss, Amorim dropped a decision to Sam Hughes in her recent UFC debut. Amorim was close to locking up a submission at multiple points in the first round, but then gassed out in the later rounds and had nothing left to offer as Hughes cruised to a unanimous 29-28 decision win. Prior to that, Amorim had never seen the second round as she had finished all six of her pro opponents in round one, with five of those fights ending in under two minutes. Her last two regional fights were five-round LFA title fights but neither made it out of the first round. However, the first of those was against an opponent who came in with just five pro fights to her name (3-1-1), and the most recent was against a 36-year-old Ashley Nichols, who came in 4-3 and has gone just 2-3 in her last five matches. So it’s not like Amorim has been facing actual legitimate competition.
Now 6-1 as a pro, Amorim has one knockout win and five submission victories. All six of those finishes came in round one. Her one loss came in a decision in her recent UFC debut.
Overall, Amorim is a BJJ black belt and former IBJJF world champion and No-Gi Pan Championship winner who is always looking to take opponents down and quickly submit them. She looks pretty one-dimensional with her grappling and hasn’t shown much in terms of striking, despite having the one knockout win on her record. She also telegraphs her takedowns from next Tuesday, and that finally caught up with her in the later rounds of her UFC debut. Her cardio went off a cliff after five minutes in her last fight when she finally saw the second round for the first time, although that was also her UFC debut so she could have been dealing with an adrenaline dump as well. Amorim looks very green when it comes to MMA and we saw her wilt in the face of adversity in her last fight, which was just four months ago. However, she trains at American Top Team, so she does have a good team around her and should be working on fixing her past mistakes. She landed 2 of her 10 takedown attempts in that fight, while she got taken down on the one attempt against her.
Montserrat “Ruiz” Conejo
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)It’s now been 25 months since Conejo got knocked out by Amanda Lemos in just 35 seconds back in July 2021. Conejo had then been booked to face Mallory Martin in December 2021, but ended up withdrawing and then underwent knee surgery in April 2022 to extend her absence. Prior to getting knocked out in her last fight, Conejo won a smothering decision over Cheyanne Vlismas in her 2021 UFC debut, where Montserrat finished ahead in significant strikes 31-15 and in total strikes 136-49, while landing 4 of 5 takedowns and amassing nearly 10 minutes of control time. She did a good job of setting up her takedowns with flurries of punches and utilized her signature headlock throw time-after-time to get the fight to the ground. Just before that she landed a first round submission in Invicta via Scarf Hold Armlock, which is her go to move. Inactivity has plagued Conejo, and she’s only fought three times since 2018.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Conejo has three wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and five decision wins. Four of Conejo’s five finishes came in her first six pro fights and she only has one finish since 2016 and it came against a low-level opponent on a four fight losing streak. On the other side of things, Conejo has been knocked out once and has one decision loss, with both of those losses coming in her last four fights.
Overall, Conejo has a wrestling background and is most comfortable in the clinch or on the mat. She’s basically a one-trick pony who looks to spam hand and arm throws to try and lock up scarf hold armlock submissions while rabbit punching her opponents relentlessly. We have seen her let her hands go in the striking exchanges as well, but she only has a 61” reach and is just 5’0” tall, so she’s pretty undersized. We’ve yet to see her face any decent grapplers, but it would be surprising if her throws worked against anyone with decent grappling, and it’s more likely they would just take her back as soon as she tried. This should be a good test for that theory.
Fight Prediction:
Amorim will have a 3” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.
Amorim had a good first round in her debut, but then unsurprisingly fell apart when she saw the second round for the first time in her career. Her cardio will be a concern moving forward, but she proved she can threaten first round finishes at the UFC level and this looks like a good bounce back spot for her as she takes on a smaller inferior grappler, who’s coming off a 25 month layoff, as well as knee surgery, and got knocked out in 35 seconds in her last fight. Conejo loves to look for head and arm throws, and the problem with that move is you can easily give up your back. That’s not what you want against a dangerous grappler like Amorim, and if Conejo doesn’t go for that move we could just see her get knocked out on the feet. So it looks like a damned if you and damned if you don’t type situation for Conejo and we like Amorim’s chances of finishing her in the first round, most likely by submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Amorim R1” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Amorim collapsed after the first round in her recent UFC debut decision loss, but nearly looked up a submission at multiple points in round one and at least showed some potential upside. All six of her previous fights ended in first round wins and this looks like a good buy-low spot on her as she takes on a low-level opponent who hasn’t fought in 25 months and got knocked out in 35 seconds in her last outing. Amorim is priced just below McKinney and looks like a great tournament pivot at her lower ownership. However, her cardio remains a concern and if she can’t end this fight quickly it’s entirely possible we see her gas once again, so it’s probably best to treat her as a R1 or bust option. The odds imply Amorim has a 68% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.
Conejo showed solid DraftKings upside in her UFC debut when she scored 103 points in a decision win as she racked up control time and ground strikes, but that came against a one-dimensional striker and will be a tougher feat to replicate here against a grappler. Conejo also got knocked out in 35 seconds in her last fight, and then underwent knee surgery resulting in a two year layoff, so she has lots of red flags. She’s a one-trick pony when it comes to grappling, and we don’t see her patented head and arm throws working nearly as well against decent grapplers. The only things Conejo has going for her are her low salary and ownership, combined with the fact that Amorim just gassed out after the first round of her last fight. So if Conejo can survive the opening five minutes, it’s possible we see Amorim gas out once again. The odds imply Conejo has a 32% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Martin Buday
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Cruising in on an 11 fight winning streak, Buday has won three straight decisions since joining the UFC, after his previous eight wins all ended in the first two rounds. His most recent decision victory came against Jake Collier, after he won a questionable split-decision over Lukasz Brzeski, where Buday got outlanded 118-66 in significant strikes with no takedowns, knockdows, or appreciable control time accrued by either guy. Clearly the judges thought Buday was doing more damage, as he got considerably outlanded in every round. Prior to that, he won a third round technical decision over Chris Barnett in his UFC debut. Just before that, Buday punched his ticket to the UFC with a first round TKO win on DWCS in 2021.
Now 12-1 as a pro, Buday has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. His only career loss occurred in his second pro fight in a 2017 decision against a stud Heavyweight grappler in Juan Espino. Buday has only seen the third round four times in his career, with all of those fights going the distance.
Overall, Buday is primarily a striker but is also a BJJ brown belt and actually started off training in Jiu-Jitsu before transitioning to MMA. We saw some of that in a September 2019 submission win where he landed two takedowns and finished his opponent early in round two with a kimura. While Buday loves to grind opponents up against the fence and go to town with knees, his takedown attempts have been sporadic. However, he does have the ability to grapple when he chooses to. While he isn’t an overly impressive striker, he finds ways to win and does a good job of landing damage out of the clinch, where he likes to throw heavy knees. He’s a big Heavyweight who has to cut down to make 265 lb and he relies on his size to help him win ugly fights. Buday doesn’t look like any sort of threat to make a real run in the UFC, but he should be able to find success against other low level Heavyweights.
Josh Parisian
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Parisian had been scheduled to fight Walt Harris a month ago, but Harris failed a drug test and the fight was scrapped. Continuing to trade wins and losses over his last six fights, Parisian lost a decision to a debuting Jamal Pogues back in February, after landing his only UFC finish in a second round ground and pound TKO over a terrible Alan Baudot in June 2022. Parisian had then been scheduled to face Chase Sherman in November 2022, but ended up pulling out of the fight the day of the event due to health concerns. Leading up to his win over Baudot, Parisian got absolutely dominated on the mat against another low-level Heavyweight in a third round TKO against Don'Tale Mayes. We also saw Parisian get beat up on the mat by Parker Porter in a decision loss in his UFC debut, so it’s been an ongoing issue for him. Following the loss in his debut, Parisian won a close split decision against Roque Martinez, who went 0-3 in the UFC before being cut. That sloppy split-decision win could have gone either way, but you don’t need to take our word for it. In his post fight interview, Michael Bisping asked Parisian, “How confident were you that you would get the decision?” Parisian responded, “Uhhhhh…I’ll be honest, I wasn’t super confident. I thought I worked really hard. But I wasn’t sure because of the cage control. Sometimes he had…I think he had me on the wall more. And then when I did have him on the wall he was punching me in the face.” To which Bisping responded, “Yeah he definitely punched you in the face a few times.” Parisian initially tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2018, but despite landing a first round KO he didn’t get a contract. Following that initial appearance on DWCS, Parisian took a shot at The Ultimate Fighter. However, he didn’t last long as he was knocked out in the second round of what counted as an exhibition match so it doesn’t show up on his pro record. He returned to DWCS in 2020 and landed another first round KO, which that time was enough to get him a contract.
Now 15-6 as a pro, Parisian has 11 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. Eight of his knockouts occurred in round one, while the other three ended in round two. Both of his submission wins came in the second round in his first four pro fights (2015 & 2016) and both of his decision wins were split/majority. He’s been knocked out twice (R2 2017 & R3 2021), submitted once (R1 2019), and has three decision losses. Prior to making his 2020 UFC debut, he hadn’t required the judges in 10 straight fights (8-2), with eight of those fights ending in round one and two in round two. However, three of his five UFC matches have gone the distance.
Overall, Parisian is a large low-level Heavyweight, who gasses out later in fights, throws sloppy punches, and is terrible off his back. He tends to mix in more kicks than most Heavyweights, but by no means is a great kicker. Between his five UFC fights and his two DWCS appearances, he was taken down 13 times on 25 attempts (48% defense), while he landed 5 takedowns of his own on 15 attempts (33.3% accuracy), with all of those attempts coming in his last four fights as he’s begun to mix in more wrestling lately. He also averages 4.45 SSL/min and 4.50 SSA/min. Parisian has only been able to beat other terrible Heavyweights, with his two UFC wins coming against Alan Baudot, who lost all four of his UFC fights, and Roque Martinez, who lost all three of his UFC fights and got cut before he could even fight a fourth time. There aren’t enough of those guys on the roster for Parisian to make it to a third UFC contract, and it’s amazing he even got a second.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’4”, but Parisian will have a 2” reach advantage.
This is a sloppy Heavyweight fight between two massive humans. Buday has a knack for grinding out close decisions, while Parisian is lucky to have even won one of his three UFC decisions. Buday isn’t a great fighter, but he should have Parisian covered everywhere and we don’t see any realistic path to victory for Parisian. The bigger question for us is whether or not Buday can find his first UFC finish or if he grinds out another decision win. Parisian tends to gas in the back half of fights, so the finish should come easier late in the fight if Buday can avoid gassing out himself, but we still lean towards Buday winning another decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Buday’s ML” at -190.
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DFS Implications:
Buday has won 11 straight fights, with eight of those ending early, but all three of his UFC matches have ended in decisions, where he only scored 82, 57, and 91 DraftKings points. We sometimes see large amounts of control time and clinch strikes from him, which makes him a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, although he’s shown less of that recently. While he hasn’t done a ton to impress us, this looks like another favorable matchup for him to succeed, as he takes on a terrible Josh Parisian who averages 4.50 SSA/min, is helpless off his back, and has been finished in half of his six pro losses. Considering Buday landed eight straight finishes just before joining the UFC, it would make sense for him to eventually finish an opponent on the UFC level and this is as good a spot as any to do it. Buday will either need a finish or a ton of control time and striking to score well, both of which are very possible. The odds imply Buday has a 66% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Parisian has put up one usable score in five Octagon appearances, which unsurprisingly came in his lone early win in the UFC when he finished a terrible Alan Baudot with ground and pound in the second round. Parisian’s only other UFC victory ended in a dubious split decision, where he only scored 79 DraftKings points. Parisian appears outgunned everywhere in this sloppy Heavyweight fight, so despite his low projected ownership we don’t have any interest in playing him. The odds imply Parisian has a 34% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Francis Marshall
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from the first loss of his young career, Marshall came out on the wrong side of a low-volume split decision against William Gomis, who finished ahead just 27-15 in significant strikes, while Marshall led 2-0 in takedowns and nearly locked up a couple of submissions in the third round. Ultimately, it was too little, too late in the eyes of two of the judges. Prior to that, Marshall burst onto the UFC scene with an impressive second round knockout in his UFC debut against Marcelo Rojo. That came just after Marshall put on a complete performance in a decision win on DWCS, where he landed six takedowns and 110 significant strikes.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Marshall has one knockout victory, four submissions, and two decision wins. All four of his submissions came by rear-naked choke, with two ending in round one and two more in round three. His lone knockout victory came in the second round of his UFC debut. He’s never been finished, with his only loss coming via split decision. While five of his seven career wins have come early, his last five matches all made it out of the first round, with four of those making it to round three, and three going the distance. His first two pro fights were at 155 lb before he dropped down to 145 lb in 2021, where he’s stayed since.
Overall, the 24-year-old Marshall is still very early in his career with just eight pro fights to his name, and only turned pro in 2019. However, he looks like an interesting prospect with a well rounded game and a good team around him. He’s a BJJ purple belt and a former high-school wrestler and football player, and looks strong inside the cage. Between his DWCS fight and his two UFC matches, he’s landed 9 of his 18 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while no one has attempted to take him down. He’s generally looking to finish fights on the mat with rear-naked chokes, but showed he has knockout power in his debut. Perhaps landing that knockout resulted in him falling in love with his striking a bit too much, as he only attempted one failed takedown attempt in the first two rounds of his last fight. When he finally did commit to his wrestling in round three he was able to get the fight to the mat and nearly locked up a couple of submission attempts, but ended up running out of time and losing the fight. In a recent interview, he said his biggest takeaway from that fight was that he needs to get his grappling going earlier, so at least he’s aware of his mistake and it sounds like he’ll be looking to grapple more early in the future.
Isaac Dulgarian
1st UFC Fight (0-0)It’s now been 18 months since Dulgarian last competed in early 2022, when he landed a first round knockout to seemingly secure both a Full Send sponsorship deal from the Nelk Boys and a UFC contract. However, after months of waiting to finalize the details, Dulgarian said the Nelk Boys ghosted him and never gave him anything. In late 2022, the whole James Krause debacle went down and Glory MMA was shut down, which is where Dulgarian had been training. While nothing came from the Nelk Boy promises, Dulgarian was finally scheduled to make his UFC debut in January 2023 against Daniel Argueta, but Dulgarian ended up withdrawing after he tore his LCL a couple of weeks before the fight. He was then told to take eight weeks off, which he did, but then two weeks after he got back in the gym he said he heard it pop again and had to take eight more weeks off. He said he’s finally back to full health now, he bought an RV, and he moved gyms to Factory X, where he said he can park right outside.
Now 5-0 as a pro, Dulgarian has finished all five of his opponents in under three minutes, with three KO/TKOs and two submissions. Just keep in mind, he’s been facing a low level of competition on the Missouri regional scene and only one of his five opponents came in with a winning record—which was a 39-year-old TeeJay Britton. Dulgarian has less than nine minutes of cage time as a pro and also finished all five of his amateur opponents in the first round.
Overall, Dulgarian is a former college wrestler who aggressively looks to get fights to the mat and hunt for finishes. He has heavy ground and pound and will also look to lock up chokes, but his cardio remains a mystery as all of his fights have ended so quickly. However, he has been training at elevation now that he’s at Factory X in Denver, after leaving Glory MMA. All of Dulgarian’s pro fights have looked pretty much the same. He immediately lands a takedown and then quickly works his way to a finish, while facing zero adversity. That makes it hard to know what we can expect from him in the UFC as he faces a major step up in competition, but we should learn a lot about him here. Keep in mind, Dulgarian only turned pro in March 2021 and his last fight was in February 2022, so all five of his pro fights came in an 11 month window and he’s still just 27 years old.
Fight Prediction:
Marshall will have a 2” height advantage and 1.5” reach advantage, while being three years younger than the 27-year-old Dulgarian.
Both of these two have wrestling backgrounds, but despite being a few years younger, Marshall has far more pro experience. Dulgarian’s entire pro career has lasted just eight minutes and four seconds, while Marshall has over 86 minutes of fight time. Marshall has also been the much more active fighter, as he’s competed four times since Dulgarian last fought. We’ve yet to see any of Dulgarian’s standup game or his defensive wrestling, as all of his fights have been near mirror images of each other. He’s clearly aggressive and has good offensive wrestling and heavy hips, but we have no idea how he looks off his back, on his feet, or if his cardio will hold up in a longer fight. We’ve also yet to see Marshall have to defend a takedown in any of his UFC fights or on DWCS, so his defensive wrestling is also a mystery. That makes this a more volatile spot, but Marshall has looked pretty solid so far in the UFC, while Dulgarian is more of an unknown. While Dulgarian has looked good beating up training dummies, he needs to prove he can hang at the UFC level before we can get behind him. This should be a good test for him, but it’s more likely to be a loss he can learn from than a win he can build on. We like Marshall’s chances of locking up a submission at some point in the match, most likely by rear-naked choke.
Our favorite bet here is “Marshall’s ML” at -160.
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DFS Implications:
Marshall is coming off a split-decision loss where he only scored 28 DraftKings points and was nowhere close to scoring well even if the decision had gone his way. However, he’s still just 24 years old and growing pains are inevitable for young fighters. And if you look back at his decision win on DWCS, he would have scored 122 points on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so he does have the ability to score well even without a finish. He followed up that win with a second round knockout in his 2022 UFC debut that was good for 100 points, although we generally see him finish fights with submissions. Now he’s facing an opponent who also has a wrestling background, so it will be interesting to see how the wrestling exchanges go. There’s a ton of uncertainty surrounding Dulgarian, which makes this a more volatile spot for both guys, but Marshall has shown solid upside both in terms of landing a finish and scoring well on both sites when he doesn’t. The odds imply Marshall has a 61% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Dulgarian is surrounded by uncertainty as he makes his UFC debut with just five pro fights under his belt, after just turning pro in March 2021. He finished all five of those opponents in the first round, but has yet to face anyone decent and only one of those opponents came in with a winning record. That also leaves his cardio a complete mystery. Dulgarian had spent his entire career at Glory MMA with James Krause, until he was forced to relocate to Factory X following the whole Krause debacle. He then tore his LCL around the start of 2023, which resulted in two months of recovery, before he suffered a setback and was shelved for another two months. It’s been 18 months since he last competed and he’s now living in an RV outside of Factory X. At least he has direct access to high-level training and experienced UFC fighters around him, but we really don’t know how he’ll look against tougher competition. The version of Dulgarian we saw on the regional scene would be a DFS goldmine if he can continue that same level of success, but we’re skeptical that he can. Nevertheless, the upside is there even if he’s less likely to hit it and if he can out wrestle Marshall then he’ll have a good shot at putting up a huge score. We’re not picking him to win, but if he does win, he should score well, and at his cheap price tag it would be tough for him to get left out of winning tournament lineups. The odds imply Dulgarian has a 39% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Terrance McKinney
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Just four weeks removed from a second round submission loss, McKinney was announced as the replacement in this fight just nine days out after Lando Vannata withdrew.
After getting knocked out in the second round of his second most recent fight by a debuting Ismael Bonfim, McKinney came into his last match looking to immediately wrestle. While he was able to get Nazim Sadykhov down and control him for over four minutes in the first round, he couldn’t put him away and then predictably turned into a pumpkin in round two and got submitted himself. McKinney has now been finished in three of his last four fights, with his only win over that stretch coming against a terrible Erick Gonzalez. While McKinney’s last two fights were both stopped in the first half of round two, his previous eight fights all ended in round one (6-2), dating back to 2019 when Sean Woodson knocked him out early in round two on DWCS. McKinney then got submitted in just 57 seconds by Darrick Minner in his next fight, before rattling off four straight knockouts in 62 seconds or less, including a seven second KO win over Matt Frevola in his UFC debut. McKinney followed that up with a first round submission over Fares Ziam, and then nearly finished Drew Dober early in his next fight, but Dober was able to survive and outlast McKinney to land a first round knockout of his own and hand McKinney his first UFC loss. That loss to Dober is when things took a turn for the worst for McKinney and he’s looked far more unsure of his striking since then.
Now 13-6 as a pro, McKinney has still never been to the judges and only one of his 19 pro fights even made it past the midway mark of round two, which was a 2018 submission win 43 seconds into round three in McKinney’s fourth pro fight. He has five wins by KO/TKO and eight submissions. He’s also been knocked out four times and has two submission losses. Fifteen of his 19 pro fights ended in round one (12-3), three ended in round two (0-3), and one ended in round three (1-0). Amazingly, seven of those first round finishes ended in the opening minute (5-2), and his last nine and 12 of his 13 career wins came in under three minutes. McKinney turned pro in 2017 and started off at 145 lb before moving up to 155 lb. He went back and forth between the two weight classes early in his career and even fought as high as 170 lb once, but it appears he’s settled in at 155 lb.
Overall, McKinney is an explosive striker with dynamite in his hands and sugar in his gas tank. He’s also a former college wrestler and is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but tends to slow down quickly after the first three minutes. His two biggest weaknesses are his cardio and striking defense, both of which he was able to mask in all of his early wins, but are now coming to light. He’s been trying to slow things down some, which is just further exposing his flaws. It’s never easy to reinvent yourself on the biggest stage and we’ve seen other aggressive finishers like Randy Costa try, only to throw away the one thing they were good at—landing quick finishes. To McKinney’s credit, he’s a much more well-rounded fighter than Costa, but the point remains. Following his loss to Bonfim, McKinney moved from Spokane, Washington down to Texas and is now training with Kevin Holland and a new team. He said he’s made a lot of improvements to his striking since making the move, but then he came in exclusively looking to wrestle in his last fight after saying that. He seems like a fighter in search of his identity and he may run out of time before he finds it.
Mike Breeden
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Breeden had been scheduled to face Lando Vannata here, but Vannata dropped out and McKinney stepped in on short notice.
Still in search of his first UFC win, Breeden is 16 months removed from a decision to Natan Levy, who took Breeden down nine times on 16 attempts, but was only able to control him for three and a half minutes. However, Breeden finished the fight really strong, outlanding Levy 62-46 in significant strikes in the third round. Prior to that, Breeden got knocked out in the first round of his short notice UFC debut by Alexander Hernandez. Breeden notably missed weight by 2.5 lb in that match. Breeden originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in August 2020, but lost a hardfought decision and was forced to return to the regional scene. He bounced back with a second round TKO win followed by a decision victory before getting the call up.
Now 10-5 as a pro, Breeden has eight wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. Five of his knockouts came in the first round, one ended in round two, and two occurred in round three. He’s also been knocked out in the first round twice himself, while his other three losses all went the distance. Breeden fought at 170 lb for a four fight stretch in 2018-2019, but the rest of his career has been down at 155 lb aside from a couple of 158-160 lb Catchweight matches.
Overall, Breeden is a heavy handed boxer, but he stands a little flatfooted at times and got his legs absolutely destroyed on DWCS. He did show off his toughness as he gutted through till the end, continuing to hunt for a knockout despite the fact that he could barely stand. While he claims to be a BJJ brown belt and will occasionally mix in takedown attempts, he’s primarily a striker. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 3 of his 8 takedown attempts (37.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 27 attempts (59.3% defense). He tends to give up his back more than he should during grappling exchanges, and it’s surprising he’s never been submitted. Breeden had been training out of Glory MMA & Fitness with James Krause, but after that got shut down he moved up the road to Trey Ogden’s gym, Marathon MMA.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10”, but McKinney will have a 3” reach advantage and is six years younger than the 34-year-old Breeden.
It doesn’t really even matter who McKinney is facing anymore, as he’s turned into a novelty R1 prop bet who melts at the first sign of adversity once fights make it out of the first round. That doesn’t take away from the fact that he’s extremely dangerous in the opening few minutes, but the book is out on him and opponents no longer need to figure out how to beat him, they just need to survive the first round. Everyone but McKinney has come to that conclusion by now, so it makes no sense that he’s trying to slow fights down by controlling opponents, as that just plays into the stall tactics of his opponents. This will be the second time he’s fought and cut weight in the last month, and he only had a week and a half to prepare for this one, which should just further limit his cardio. Apparently he thinks he can will his way out of the death spiral he’s on, but if he had decent coaching around him they would tell him to take some time off opposed to racking up losses as quickly as possible. He’s still fully capable of either knocking Breeden out or submitting him, but if he can’t get it done in the first round then look for him to fall off a cliff once again and get finished in round two. Despite McKinney’s career turning into a complete trainwreck, we still like his chances of finishing Breeden in the first round, but it’s impossible to be overly confident in the clown show that he’s become.
Our favorite bet here is “McKinney/Breeden Under 0.5 Rounds” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
McKinney took this fight on short notice and just four weeks after his last loss. He’s burning through his second UFC contract as fast as physically possible and at this rate he’ll be cut by Halloween. He’s the most R1 or bust fighter on the planet and has been quickly finished by his opponents in his last three fights that made it to round two. He’s never been in a match that lasted longer than 11 minutes and has only been past the first round four times in 19 pro fights. Twelve of his 13 pro wins have come in under three minutes, which leaves him with a very narrow window to win fights. He averaged 110 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, all of which came in 137 seconds or less, but he failed to top 105 points in either of his last two wins. However, he’s now lost two straight and three of his last four fights, so it will be interesting to see where his ownership comes in, but he’s always been incredibly popular. In his last five fights, his DraftKings ownership checked in at 40%, 36%, 49%, 42%, and 56%. We expect it to come down slightly here, but he still projects to be popular despite his recent struggles and this is an easier matchup for him than either of his last two. His high ownership makes it tougher to get excited about playing him in tournaments and at his expensive price tag he may need a finish in the opening 60 seconds to guarantee him a spot in winning DraftKings lineups. Nevertheless, whoever wins this fight should score well and it would be surprising to see it last past the midway point of round two. The odds imply McKinney has a 70% chance to win, a 63% chance to land a finish, and a 50% chance it comes in round one.
Breeden is the latest contestant on Can You Survive 5 Minutes with Terrance McKinney? Winners on the show receive an all expenses paid, teed up second round finish and a chance to meet Michael Bisping. Whether or not Breeden can actually make it to the second round is iffy, and both his striking and grappling defenses have looked poor. He’s also coming off an extended 16 month layoff and is at a new gym after Glory got shut down. However, he’s got decent hands and 8 of his 10 career wins ended in knockouts. So if he can survive the opening minutes of the fight, he’ll have a really good shot at knocking out a compromised McKinney in round two. That gives him a solid scoring ceiling, but the potential for him to get finished immediately in round one leaves him with literally a zero point floor. If Breeden does pull off the upset, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups at his cheap price tag. The odds imply Breeden has a 30% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Marcus McGhee
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)McGhee was originally scheduled to face Gaston Bolanos here, but Bolanos dropped out and Buys was announced as the replacement in late June.
Making his second Octagon appearance, McGhee recently made his short notice UFC debut and pulled off the upset in a second round submission against a questionable Journey Newson. That was the first time McGhee had ever submitted anybody and the only time Newson has ever been submitted. Prior to that, McGhee landed a pair of third round TKOs, after getting submitted in the first round of an LFA fight. McGhee only turned pro in 2020, but he has yet to require the judges in any of his eight pro fights.
Now 7-1 as a pro, McGhee has six wins by KO/TKO and one by submission. He has two first round knockouts, three in round two, and one in round three, while his lone submission win also ended in round two. His last three and five of his last six finishes occurred in the later rounds. He was submitted in the first round of his only loss. He’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 11 minutes, with seven of his eight fights ending in the first two rounds. Most of his career has been spent at 135 lb, but he did have one fight at 145 lb and two more at 140 lb Catchweights, including his UFC debut. Now he’ll be cutting the additional five pounds to make 135 lb.
Overall, McGhee is an aggressive brawler who hasn’t shown much in the way of grappling other than his recent submission win in his UFC debut. He’s a sparring partner of Sean O’Malley at the MMA Lab in Arizona and also trains with Mario Bautista and Kyler Phillips (recently suspended for Ostarine), in addition to O’Malley (previously suspended for Ostarine). McGhee has shown the ability to stitch together lengthy boxing combinations, but is still very green overall and looks like a liability on the mat, who’s at risk of getting submitted anytime he hits the ground against a decent grappler. However, he’s done a decent job of defending takedowns and is dangerous on the feet. Despite only turning pro three and half years ago and only having one UFC fight under his belt, McGhee is already 33 years old and got a late start in MMA. It will be interesting to see what improvements he’s made now that he got a full camp under his belt for this one.
JP Buys
4th UFC Fight (0-3)Buys has continued to get shit on by the universe at every possible turn ever since he joined the UFC. He came into the UFC alongside his wife, Cheyanne Vlismas, billed as one of the few husband and wife fighting duos, but as Buys was getting his ass kicked during his three straight skid, Cheyanne left him at his lowest point for a more successful fighter. That forced Buys to relocate (again) and try to reinvent himself. Then just as he was looking to get things back on track he tore his hamstring right off the bone and was forced to undergo surgery, which resulted in a 14 month layoff. Now Buys will be fighting for his job after he got knocked out in two of his first three UFC fights and lost a decision in the other. Both of those knockouts came at 125 lb, while he went the distance against a really tough Montel Jackson in his lone UFC 135 lb match. It took Buys two tries on DWCS to crack the UFC roster, but after suffering a TKO loss in his first time on the show he landed a submission in his second appearance.
Now 9-5 as a pro, Buys has three wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and one DQ victory. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has one decision loss. Buys has gone back and forth between 125 lb and 135 lb throughout his career, going 4-4 at 125 lb, and 5-1 at 135 lb. Both of his DWCS matches, his UFC debut, and his last fight were at 125 lb, while his only 135 lb loss went the distance. However, Buys was clearly undersized in that match and will be returning to 135 lb here. Buys has said that cutting down to 125 lb takes a lot out of him, and has really compromised his durability, which is backed up by the results.
Overall, Buys is a solid wrestler and a BJJ brown belt and quickly looks to get fights to the mat. He’s done a good job of controlling opponents and finding finishes in the past, but we’ve yet to see that at the UFC level. His striking defense is terrible and he’s amazingly been knocked down EIGHT TIMES in his first three UFC matches. Buys is still just 27 years old and has been training with a bunch of high-level UFC grapplers like Aljo, Merab, Albazi, and the Basharat brothers, so he should have every opportunity to improve. The UFC hasn’t done Buys any favors, as they threw him straight to the wolves in his debut and then paired him up against two fellow wrestlers. He’ll finally get a more favorable matchup here in a must win spot.
Fight Prediction:
McGhee will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. Buys is six years younger than the 33-year-old McGhee.
This is a striker versus grappler matchup where both fighters have glaring weaknesses that should open up opportunities for the other. McGhee’s defensive grappling hasn’t looked very good, and neither has Buys’ defensive striking. McGhee should be looking to keep the fight standing at all costs, while Buys will need to get it to the mat quickly before he takes any damage. It looks like a great sell-high spot on McGhee and buy-low spot on Buys, who should be able to have his way with McGhee once he can land a takedown. McGhee’s size advantage could help him to defend takedowns, but we still think Buys will find a way to get this fight to the ground and finish McGhee on the mat, most likely by submission in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Buys’ ML” at +300.
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DFS Implications:
McGhee is an aggressive brawler with a 100% finishing rate, but doesn’t appear equipped to compete in UFC-level grappling battles. While he did just land the first submission win of his career, that was a pure club-and-sub and needs to be taken in context. McGhee only scored 91 DraftKings points in that win and now checks in as the most expensive fighter on the card. We could see that meh score and high price tag keep his ownership in check, despite the fact that Buys has been knocked down eight times in his three UFC fights and has always made for high-scoring performances for whoever wins. So while this is an unfavorable stylistic matchup for McGhee, he still has tons of upside if he can avoid getting taken down. The odds imply McGhee has a 76% chance to win, a 59% chance to land a finish, and a 35% chance it comes in round one.
Buys finds himself in a must win spot after getting mauled in his first three UFC fights. He’s gone back and forth between 125 lb and 135 lb every time he steps inside the Octagon, but it sounds like he’s finally committing to 135 lb, as the cut down to 125 lb was clearly negatively impacting his durability. That’s somewhat encouraging for his durability moving forward, but we can’t ignore how fragile he’s been, as he’s been knocked down eight times in his three UFC fights. Now he’s facing an opponent with a 100% finishing rate and a history of landing knockouts, so Buys will need to quickly get this fight to the mat before he gets dropped once again. It looks like a great matchup for Buys to find grappling success, so as long as he can take McGhee down, he’ll have a really good chance of finding a finish on the ground to try and save his job. As the cheapest fighter on the card, it’s hard to see Buys getting left out of winning DFS lineups if he pulls off the upset. The odds imply Buys has a 24% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Josh Fremd
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Stepping into the final fight of his contract, Fremd is coming off his first UFC win in a second round submission win via guillotine over a debuting Sedriques Dumas. Prior to that, Fremd nearly got his head ripped off as he got choked unconscious early in the second round of his previous fight against Treasean Gore, which also ended in a guillotine. Looking back one fight further, Fremd got smothered on the mat for three rounds in a decision loss in his short notice UFC debut against Anthony Hernandez. Fremd also got knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues in the first round of a 2021 LFA fight and is just 3-3 in his last six fights.
Now 9-4 as a pro, Fremd has four wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and two decision victories. All eight of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with three first round knockouts, another in round two, and four second round submission wins. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. Both of his early losses ended in under six minutes.
Overall, Fremd is an aggressive fighter who likes to push forward and force the action. He trains at elevation with several other UFC fighters at Factory X in Colorado. Fremd is a somewhat dangerous striker with really good size for the division at 6’4” and he likes to throw violent flying knees. His aggressive fighting style has gotten him into trouble at times in the past and he had been prone to getting dropped on the regional scene. He’s also struggled with getting taken down and controlled. In his three UFC fights, he’s been taken down 11 times on 16 opponent attempts (31.3% defense), while only landing three of his own takedowns on just four attempts (75% accuracy).
Jamie Pickett
8th UFC Fight (2-5)Desperate for a win, Pickett has been finished in the first two rounds in three straight fights, with the most recent of those coming in a first round submission against Bo Nickal. Pickett put up little resistance in that fight as Nickal landed a strategic low-blow to help get the fight to the mat. Pickett is now just 2-5 in the UFC and also went 1-2 in three appearances on DWCS. After losing a decision in his 2020 UFC debut against Tafon Nchukwi, Pickett got finished in just 64 seconds via TKO against Jordan Wright in his next fight. While Pickett bounced back with a pair of boring decision wins, he then got submitted in the final second of the first round by Kyle Daukaus, showing a lack of awareness as he tapped with literally one second left in the round. Then leading up to his loss to Nickal, Pickett got knocked out by a one dimensional striker in Denis Tiuliulin, who’s been submitted in each of his other two UFC fights. Pickett has yet to look offensively dangerous in the UFC and has only been able to defeat struggling opponents in boring decisions.
Now 13-9 as a pro, Pickett has nine wins by KO/TKO and four decision victories. The last time he finished anybody was on DWCS in 2020 and he hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat at the UFC level. On the other side of things, he’s been knocked out twice, submitted four times, and has three decision losses. Pickett has appeared content with grinding out decisions by pushing opponents up against the cage and three of his last four wins have gone the distance.
Overall, Pickett has yet to do anything to impress us since joining the UFC and while he’s got decent athleticism, he is habitually tentative with his striking. He only averages 3.16 SSL/min and failed to top 60 significant strikes landed in any of his seven UFC fights or his three trips on DWCS. He also hasn’t been impressive with his grappling despite being a BJJ brown belt. In his seven UFC fights and three DWCS appearances, he’s landed 8 of his 22 takedown attempts (36.4% accuracy), while he’s been taken down 10 times on 30 opponent attempts (66.7% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Fremd will have a 2” height advantage, but Pickett will have a 4” reach advantage. Fremd is five years younger than the 34-year-old Pickett.
Neither of these two have been very impressive and whoever loses most likely gets cut. Fremd is the more dangerous of the two and they’ve both been prone to getting finished. When Pickett needed to secure two wins to get a second contract in the UFC, we saw him get ultra conservative and just hold guys against the fence to squeak out a pair of decision wins over low-level opponents in Joseph Holmes and Laureano Staropoli. Perhaps he’ll be looking to do the same here, and Fremd has struggled with being controlled for extended periods of time. However, if Fremd can keep his back off the cage he should be able to outstrike Pickett. Eight of Fremd’s 10 career wins have come early, and Pickett has been finished in his last four losses, so at least on paper it sets up well for Fremd to find another finish here. However, with both guys likely fighting for their job, there’s the potential for one or both of them to come in with a more conservative game plan that could lower the chances of this ending in a finish. However, outside of Pickett pushing Fremd up against the cage for the whole fight, we don’t see many paths to victory for Pickett. On the other side of things, Fremd has multiple ways to win this fight, whether it be by knockout, submission, or outworking his way to a decision. Fremd is the pick, but it’s kind of a crapshoot predicting how he gets it done. We’ll say he either locks up another second round submission or grinds out a decision victory.
Our favorite bet here is “Josh Fremd SUB or DEC” at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Fremd is coming off his first UFC win, where he scored 109 DraftKings points in a second round submission. Prior to that, he got choked unconscious in the second round of his previous fight after getting dominated on the mat in a decision loss in his short notice UFC debut. Needless to say, he’s had a pretty up-and-down UFC career so far. He confirmed that this is the final fight on his contract, so his job will be on the line as he takes on an opponent in Pickett who’s been finished in under 10 minutes in three straight fights. That’s encouraging for Fremd’s scoring potential, and 8 of his 10 career wins have come early, with all of those finishes ending in the first two rounds. One concern with Fremd is that he’s struggled with being controlled at times, and Pickett likes to hold guys up against the fence when he can. That will make it tougher for Fremd to score well in a decision and it’s hard to see him returning value at his expensive price tag without a finish. The odds imply Fremd has a 74% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Pickett scored exactly 66 DraftKings points in each of his two UFC wins, which both ended in decisions, and hasn’t looked like any sort of finisher at the UFC level. While he is a BJJ brown belt, he’s never submitted anybody and has zero submission attempts in the UFC. He’s been finished in three straight fights and you have to imagine Pickett is on the verge of being cut unless he secures a win here. The last time he needed wins to secure his job was when he landed back-to-back clinch-heavy, low-volume decisions and we could see him try to take that approach once again. That would just ruin the fight for everybody and even at his cheap price tag Pickett hasn’t shown the ability to score enough points in a decision to be useful. While Fremd has been somewhat prone to getting finished, we’re not convinced that Pickett has it in him to get Fremd out of there early. The only thing Pickett has going for him in DFS is his low ownership and salary, which isn’t enough for us to get excited about playing him. The odds imply Pickett has a 26% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Tafon Nchukwi
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Fourteen months removed from his second straight knockout loss, Nchukwi will now be cutting back down to 185 lb, where he competed in his first two UFC fights (1-1) before moving up to 205 lb for his last three matches (1-2). His most recent knockout loss came just 75 seconds into the first round against Carlos Ulberg, after Azamat Murzakanov landed a third round flying knee knockout against Nchukwi just before that. Leading up to those early losses, Nchukwi fought to three straight decisions (2-1) in his first three UFC appearances. He landed 116 or more significant strikes in both of his UFC decision wins, and also tacked on three takedowns and nearly five minutes of control time against Mike Rodriguez. The last time Nchukwi finished an opponent was when he took on an undersized Al Matavao on DWCS in 2020 and landed a violent head kick KO in the second round to punch his ticket to the UFC.
Now 6-3 as a pro, Nchukwi has four wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. His four knockout wins came in his first four prof fights, with two in round one and two in the first half of round two, but he hasn’t finished anybody in any of his last five matches. He’s been knocked out twice himself and has one decision defeat. Nchukwi started out at Heavyweight for his first two pro fights, before taking a 225 lb Catchweight match after that. Then he dropped down to 205 lb when he went on DWCS, and all the way down to 185 lb for his first two UFC matches. He moved back up to 205 lb for his last three fights, but will now be returning to 185 lb.
Overall, Nchukwi has a background in Muay Thai, where he went 13-1, and he also won a kickboxing world championship before transitioning to MMA. He’s still just 28 years old and should theoretically still be improving between every fight at such a young stage in his MMA career. He has good power and throws dangerous head kicks and we’ve seen him land a good amount of volume at times. Between his five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Nchukwi landed 4 of his 7 takedown attempts (57.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 4 of their 14 attempts (71.4% defense). Nchukwi’s biggest issue seems to be finding what weight class he should be competing at. The cut down to 185 lb is brutal for him and his only win at that weight class was against a suspect Jamie Pickett. However, he’s short at Light Heavyweight and he seems like a guy stuck between two weight classes. After getting knocked out in each of his last two fights and now cutting an additional 20 lb for this match, you have to wonder about how his durability will hold up.
AJ Dobson
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Still in search of his first UFC win, Dobson lost a pair of decisions in his first two fights with the organization, after previously never losing a fight. Dobson showed a low fight IQ in his last match as he failed to capitalize on his grappling advantage against a one-dimensional kick boxer in Armen Petrosyan. Dobson was far too tentative in the match and ultimately got outlanded 118-58 in significant strikes as he lost every single round. Three days after that loss Dobson posted on Instagram that he was changing camps, so clearly he wasn’t happy with that performance either. Prior to that loss, Dobson got smothered on the mat in a decision loss in his UFC debut against Jacob Malkoun, after landing a first round submission win on DWCS to punch his ticket to the big show.
Now 6-2 as a pro, Dobson has three wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory. All five of his finishes occurred in round one, with three ending in 60 seconds or less. Both of his career losses went the distance. He’s only been past the first round three times in his career, with all of those fights going the distance (1-2). He’s fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb in the past, but it appears he will be sticking at 185 lb for the time being.
Overall, Dobson came into the UFC as an aggressive brawler withs violent striking, but after getting smothered on the mat in his UFC debut, he looked far more tentative in his last fight. That leaves us wondering what his approach will be moving forward, as he’s looked like two different fighters between past and present. He’s still very early in his career, and seems to be in search of his identity, making it tougher to know what we can expect from him from fight to fight. He’s just a BJJ purple belt and doesn’t appear to offer a ton in terms of grappling, but will look to wrap up chokes on the mat. His father was also a fighter and Dobson played college football for a year before dropping out to pursue a career in MMA, and he’s clearly very athletic, but just very green when it comes to fighting. Between his DWCS appearance and his two UFC fights, Dobson has landed four of his five takedown attempts (80% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 6 of their 17 attempts (64.7% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Dobson will have a 1” height advantage, but Nchukwi will have a 1” reach advantage.
Nchukwi comes into this matchup with several red flags, as he’s been knocked out in two straight fights, is dropping down a weight class, and hasn’t competed in over a year. His only win since 2020 came in a 2021 decision over a suspect Mike Rodriguez. However, Dobson has yet to win a fight in the UFC, is also coming off two losses, and didn’t show us much in his last fight. This is basically a “Who wants it less?” type of fight, but we give the speed advantage to Dobson and the power advantage to Nchukwi. Both guys have underwhelmed so far in the UFC, which makes it hard to feel confident in either of them and results in this being a more volatile matchup, especially with Nchukwi dropping down a weight class, and Dobson’s performances being so all over the place. We haven’t liked how Nchukwi has looked at 185 lb, so give us the plus money on Dobson here, but we trust these guys about as far as we can throw ‘em.
Our favorite bet here is “Dobson R1” at +460.
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DFS Implications:
Nchukwi has shown the ability to score well even in decisions through a combination of striking volume, takedowns, and control time, and he put up DraftKings scores of 106 and 101 in his two UFC decision wins. However, he was also on his way to winning a very low-scoring, low-volume decision in his second most recent fight before he got knocked out in the third round. Now he’ll be cutting back down from 205 lb to 185 lb following two straight knockout losses followed by a 14 month layoff, all of which is concerning for his outlook. We’ve thought he looked better overall at 205 lb than 185 lb, but he’s been somewhat inconsistent at both weight classes and you never know what exactly you’re going to get from him. That leaves him with a wide range of scoring potential, but he comes in with several red flags and Dobson has never been finished. The odds imply Nchukwi has a 57% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Dobson showed a ton of scoring potential earlier in his career, but we’ve haven’t seen that translate at the next level and he’s still in search of his first UFC win. He looked like someone pretending to fight in his last match, after getting dominated on the mat before that. Maybe he’ll finally turn back to his more aggressive self here, but we really have no idea. He’s still very green and learning on the job, with just eight pro fights under his belt. That makes him a volatile option in DFS, but he definitely has a ceiling if he can just go for it and not fight so tentatively. Working in his favor, Nchukwi has been knocked out in each of his last two fights and is now dropping down a weight class following a 14 month layoff. That adds to the volatility of this matchup, leaving Dobson as an interesting tournament underdog. The odds imply Dobson has a 43% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Iasmin Lucindo
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off her first UFC victory, Lucindo won a decision over a terrible Brogan Walker back in April. The fact that Lucindo wasn’t able to get Walker out of there early was disappointing and Lucindo has yet to show any sort of killer instinct in the UFC. However, her striking has looked pretty good and eventually she’ll probably show more of her ground game that got her to the big show. Prior to her recent win, Lucindo lost a hardfought decision in her UFC debut against a really tough Yazmin Jauregui, after winning seven straight just before that, with four of those ending in TKOs. In the last of those wins on the regional scene, Lucindo dominated a Judo black belt on the mat in a three-round decision victory. Despite only being 21 years old Lucindo somehow turned pro back in 2017 when she was just 15.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Lucindo has eight wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and four decision victories. All four of those decision wins occurred in her last eight fights, and she’s gone the distance in three straight fights. Her last four finishes all ended in TKOs, while both of her submission victories were by armbar in the first two rounds of fights in 2018 and 2019. Three of her 10 finishes occurred in round one, five ended in round two, and two were stopped in round three. The only time she’s ever been knocked out was in the first round of a 2018 match in her fifth pro fight against a dangerous striker in Gabriella Fernandes, who’s now in the UFC. She’s also been submitted twice, once in 2018 and then again in 2019. Just keep in mind, all of those early losses occurred when she was just 16-17 years old. Her only other two losses were a 2017 split decision that occurred when she was just 15 and a decision loss in her UFC debut. Lucindo dropped down from 125 lb to 115 lb for her UFC debut, but then moved back up to 125 lb for her last fight. Now she’ll be dropping back down to 115 lb once again, as she continues to bounce between weight classes. She’s competed as high as 143 lb in the past.
Overall, Lucindo is a very young, athletic fighter with good striking and dangerous ground and pound. However, she’s yet to maximize her skills at the UFC level and we wonder about her fight IQ. It seems like she’s still trying to figure out how to blend her striking and wrestling, and she’s been far more focussed on her boxing since joining the UFC. The timing of her takedowns in her last fight was puzzling, and a smarter fighter with her skills would have easily gotten Walker out of there. Maybe we can chalk that up as a learning experience, but only time will tell. In her two UFC fights, Lucindo landed four of her seven takedowns attempts (57.1% accuracy), while no one has tried to take her down. Prior to joining the UFC, she was dominating opponents on the mat with ground and pound, but we’ve yet to really see her take that approach in either of her UFC fights. Now she’s facing a dangerous armbar specialist, so it would be hilariously stupid if she finally leaned into her ground game in this matchup.
Polyana Viana
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Viana landed her first knockout win since 2015 in her most recent match, when she knocked out Jinh Yu Frey just 47 seconds into the first round. That’s Viana’s third first round finish in her last four outings, and all four of her UFC wins have ended in round one. However, her previous three victories all ended in submissions, as did one of her four UFC losses. She’s lost all three of the decisions she’s been to in the UFC. The most recent of those decision losses came against a fellow grappler in Tabatha Ricci, who took Viana down five times and controlled her for nine and a half minutes on the mat. Viana’s four UFC wins came against a debuting Maia Kahaunaele who never fought again, Emily Whitmire, who’s been submitted in all five of her career losses, Mallory Martin, who’s been submitted twice and went 1-3 in the UFC before being cut, and Jinh Yu Frey, who’s lost three straight and is 2-5 in the UFC.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Viana has five KO/TKO wins and eight submission victories. Twelve of her 13 finishes came in round one, with the exception being a 2014 second round submission victory in her second pro fight. She notably knocked out Amanda Ribas back in 2015 before they joined the UFC. Six of her eight submission wins ended in armbars, while she also has two rear-naked chokes on her record. She’s also been armbarred once in the first round herself, which is the only time she’s ever been finished, and has lost all four of the decisions she’s been to. She’s never won a fight that lasted longer than seven minutes and 13 of her 18 fights have ended in the first round. Viana came into the UFC with a 9-1 record, but has since gone 4-4 as opponents have begun figuring her out. Viana has fought almost her entire career at 115 lb, but did move up to 125 lb for one fight in 2019, which is when she suffered the only early loss of her career in a first round armbar.
Overall, Viana is a dangerous grappler who loves working off her back. She’s a BJJ brown belt and former jiu-jitsu world champion, as well as a 21-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion. She also won the Jungle Fight Strawweight belt back in 2015. Viana actually finished narrowly ahead in striking in all three of her UFC decision losses, but her biggest strength is also her biggest weakness as she’s such a good defensive grappler that she spends large amounts of time on her back. She almost always finishes way behind in control time and her style of fighting simply isn’t conducive to winning on the scorecards. She’s basically a female version of Paul Craig. She’s only landed 3 of her 9 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy) in her eight UFC fights, and only attempted one takedown in her last four matches, which she failed to land. However, she will pull guard to try and get fights to the mat, which doesn’t register as a takedown, so the stats don’t always tell the full story.
Fight Prediction:
Viana will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while being 10 years older than the 21-year-old Lucindo.
This will be a real test for Lucindo’s dubious fight IQ, and while we were screaming at her to attempt more takedowns in her last two fights, it will be just the opposite in this matchup. Viana will want nothing more than for Lucindo to try and take her down, so it will be foolish for Lucindo to try and get this fight to the mat, where she’ll be at risk of getting armbarred. However, that doesn’t mean she won’t do it and Lucindo has been submitted twice in the past, with one of those ending via armbar. Our inability to trust Lucindo to make smart decisions makes this a volatile matchup, but we expect it to end in either a Viana armbar win, most likely in round one, or a Lucindo decision. Based on Lucindo’s lack of experience and suspect fight IQ, we’ll say Viana finds a way to get this to the ground and locks up another early armbar victory.
Our favorite bet here is “Viana SUB” at +390.
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DFS Implications:
Lucindo has been extremely frustrating in DFS, as she showed massive scoring potential on the regional scene through her ground and pound, but has yet to display that at the UFC level. Now she gets a matchup where it will be extremely dangerous for her to look for takedowns, so it will be ironic if she finally starts looking to implement more wrestling. She only scored 73 DraftKings points in her recent decision win, after totaling just 27 points in a decision loss just before that. She’s still only 21 years old, so she still has plenty of time to put it all together, and she’s a gifted athlete with a well-rounded skill set. It’s just the mental aspect of fighting that hasn’t quite clicked for her yet, but this will be a really good test of her fight IQ. Unfortunately for DFS, this looks like a tough spot for her to score well unless she dives into the fire and takes on Viana where she’s the most dangerous, which is on the mat. If the fight remains standing, it’s hard to see Lucindo scoring well unless she lands a standing knockout, and Viana has never been knocked out. If Lucindo does take the fight to the ground, there’s a good chance she’ll get submitted. However, if she can keep her arms intact then it’s possible she could rack up enough control time and ground strikes to still score well on DraftKings in a decision. That’s a very risky path though and we’re not excited about playing Lucindo in this spot. The odds imply Lucindo has a 64% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Viana is a very binary fighter who typically either finishes opponents in the first round (12 of her 13 wins) or loses decisions (4 of her 5 losses). She’s generally hunting for armbars off her back, but did land a knockout in her last win. All four of her UFC wins have come in the first round, where she’s averaged 110 DraftKings points. She also got submitted once in the first round herself, while her other three UFC losses all went the distance. In those three decision losses, she averaged 35 DraftKings points and has given us no indication that she can score well in a decision, not that she’s ever won one. Lucindo has been finished in three of her five career losses, including two submissions and one by armbar, but all of those finishes came when she was just 16 to 17 years old. Nevertheless, that’s encouraging for Viana’s potential of finding a finish and Lucindo’s fight IQ seems dubious at best. Viana has a good shot at locking up a finish here, and if that happens it’s tough to see her getting left out of winning lineups at her cheap price tag. The odds imply Viana has a 36% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Khalil Rountree Jr.
14th UFC Fight (7-5, NC)This fight was originally supposed to happen on June 10th, but Daukaus got injured and pulled out, so they pushed it back two months.
Rountree is 10 months removed from a dubious split-decision win over Dustin Jacoby, where Rountree finished behind 85-120 in significant strikes in a pure striking battle. Prior to that, Rountree landed a pair of second round TKO wins against Karl Roberson and Modestas Bukauskas, which are Rountree’s only finishes in his last seven fights, dating back to 2018. He’s just 4-3 in those last seven matches, with two of his last four wins going the distance. Leading up to his current three-fight winning streak, Rountree got knocked out by Ion Cutelaba in the first round of a 2019 match and then lost a decision against a highly suspect Marcin Prachnio.
Now 11-5 as a pro, Rountree has seven wins by KO/TKO and four decision wins. Five of his seven finishes came in the first round with the other two ending in round two. He’s also been knocked out twice himself and submitted once, with all three of those early losses ending in round one. His other two losses both went the distance. While he’s fought exclusively at 205 in the UFC, he competed down at 185 lb some earlier in his career.
Overall, Rountree is a violent striker who’s shown a questionable chin at times, which is why so many of his fights have ended in the first round. In his 13 UFC fights, he failed to land his only takedown attempts, while his opponents got him down on 14 of their 31 attempts (54.8% defense). He relies entirely on his striking, specifically on his power, to win fights and six of his last eight wins have come by knockout. He only averages 3.67 SSL/min and 4.19 SSA/min, but is coming off a career best 85 significant strikes landed.
Chris Daukaus
8th UFC Fight (4-3)After getting knocked out in under six minutes in three straight Heavyweight fights, Daukaus is moving down to Light Heavyweight for the first time in his career in this matchup. In fairness to Daukaus, those losses came against a trio of heavy hitters in Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Curtis Blaydes, and Derrick Lewis. Nevertheless, Daukaus was always somehow undersized, yet overweight at Heavyweight, so the move down seemed inevitable. Prior to his recent string of losses, Daukaus landed five straight knockouts of his own, going back to just before he joined the UFC. He knocked out his first three UFC opponents in the first round, and then landed an early second round knockout in his last win, which was back in 2021 against a washed up Shamil Abdurakhimov.
Now 12-6 as a pro, Daukaus has 11 wins by KO/TKO and one decision victory. He’s also been knocked out five times and submitted once. Daukaus’ last 13 fights have all ended in knockouts in the first two rounds (9-4), with nine of those ending in round one (7-2) and four ending in round two (2-2). Only one of those 13 fights made it past the midway point of round two. Only one of Daukaus’ 18 career fights has made it past the second round, which was a 2016 decision win in his 5th pro match.
Overall, Daukaus is a striker who previously relied on his speed advantage at Heavyweight as he averaged 6.41 SSL/min, but now that he’s moving down to Light Heavyweight he’ll be facing much faster opponents. While he’s allegedly a BJJ black belt, Daukaus has never even attempted a takedown in his seven UFC fights and has never submitted anybody in his career. He’s only faced two takedown attempts from his opponents, and he was able to stuff both of those. It will be interesting to see how Daukaus adjusts to facing smaller, faster, more athletic opponents, but we don’t have super high hopes for him. Daukaus wouldn’t go into full detail, but he did say the injury that forced him to withdraw from this matchup back in June had a two to four week recovery time after he had a procedure done.
Fight Prediction:
Daukaus will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 76” reach.
Daukaus excelled in matchups where he had a speed and power advantage, but really struggled once he began facing more explosive strikers. Rountree is nothing if not explosive, and should have the speed and probably the power advantage in this matchup. That makes it tougher to see Daukaus pulling off the upset, and Heavyweights moving down to Light Heavyweight have generally struggled in their first fight at the new weight class. Daukaus’ chin already looked pretty suspect, and you have to imagine that cutting a bunch of extra weight won’t help it any. We like Rountree to knock him out in violent fashion in the opening round and a half.
Our favorite bet here is “Rountree/Daukaus Under 1.5 Rounds” at -166.
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DFS Implications:
Rountree averaged 100 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, but is coming off a career worst 65 point score in a split-decision win, after scoring 95 or more points in all of his first six UFC victories. Five of those wins ended in knockouts in the first two rounds, while his one other decision victory scored 104 DraftKings points, but only because he notched a ridiculous four knockdowns. Rountree has never landed a takedown and only averages 3.67, so he relies on finishes and knockdowns to score well. While that’s generally a risky thing to rely on, Daukaus’ last 13 fights have all ended in knockouts in the first two rounds and now he’s cutting down from Heavyweight to Light Heavyweight. The oddsmakers fully expect this one to end in a knockout, setting that line at a ridiculous -500, with Rountree being close to a 2:1 favorite to win. At his high salary it’s always possible he lands a knockout and still gets priced out of winning lineups, but the single most likely outcome in this fight is that Rountree lands a first round knockout and scores 100+ points on both sites. The odds imply Rountree has a 62% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 35% chance it comes in round one.
Daukaus has been knocked out in three straight fights after landing four straight knockouts of his own to start his UFC career. He averaged an insane 120 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, ridiculously landing multiple knockdowns in three of those wins. That unsustainable pace came back down to earth in his last three matchups, where he never came close to landing a knockdown and scored a combined nine points. Now he’s cutting down to Light Heavyweight and it remains to be seen what effect that will have on his speed, power, and durability. Our expectations are low for him, as he had always relied on his speed at Heavyweight, but now everyone will be just as fast, if not faster than him at Light Heavyweight. However, if he looks better than expected and comes in and pulls off the upset, it will likely be by knockout and at his cheap price tag he’ll be a near lock to end up in winning lineups. Working in his favor, Rountree has been knocked out in the first round in two of his last three losses and you never know exactly what will happen when they lock the cage doors. After being extremely popular in DFS early in his career, we saw Daukaus’ ownership drop off in his last two matches as he faced tougher competition. It will be interesting to see what the field does here, but if recent trends continue then he shouldn’t be overly popular. The odds imply Daukaus has a 38% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Hakeem Dawodu
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Eleven months removed from a decision loss to Julian Erosa, Dawodu uncharacteristically missed weight by 3.5 lb and then proceeded to look terrible in the fight, so you have to wonder if he came in win an injury. Prior to that loss, Dawodu dominated Michael Trizano in a 30-27 decision win, where Dawodu finished ahead 141-70 in significant strikes. That came just after Dawodu lost a decision to the undefeated Movsar Evloev, who took Dawodu down 9 times on 13 attempts. That’s especially impressive considering Dawodu only got taken down 4 times on 27 attempts in his first six UFC fights leading up to that. While Dawodu has lost two of his last three fights, he won five straight just before that and is still 6-2 in his last eight fights, since getting submitted 39 seconds into his 2018 UFC debut. Seven of his last eight fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2019 R3 KO over Yoshinori Horie, who was making his first and only UFC appearance with the organization. You have to go all the way back to 2016 to find Dawodu’s second most recent early win, which is somewhat surprising considering how solid of a striker he is.
Now 13-3-1 as a pro, Dawodu has seven wins by KO/TKO and six decisions. Six of his seven knockouts occurred in his first seven pro matches from 2014 to 2016. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once and has two decision losses. His last eight fights have all made it to the third round, and 13 of his last 14 made it out of round one.
Overall, Dawodu is a solid Muay Thai fighter, with crisp, powerful striking, but he doesn’t really offer anything in terms of offensive grappling. He’s only attempted two takedowns in nine UFC fights and failed to land either of those. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 16 of their 47 attempts (66% defense) and his last five opponents all got him down at least once. He impressively averages 5.33 SSL/min but just 3.15 SSA/min, and has finished ahead in significant strikes in all six of his UFC wins, while trailing in his last two losses.
Cub Swanson
23rd UFC Fight (13-9)Nearing his 40th birthday, Swanson is moving back up to 145 lb for this matchup after he experimented with dropping down to 135 lb in his last fight, where he proceeded to get finished via leg kick TKO in the second round by Jonathan Martinez. The fight nearly got stopped late in round one, but Swanson was narrowly able to survive, only to get beat up some more in round two before the fight was eventually stopped late in that round. Prior to that, Swanson landed a first round TKO win against Darren Elkins, after suffering a R1 TKO loss to Giga Chikadze, following a R2 knockout win over Daniel Pineda. Leading up to those four knockouts, Swanson tore his ACL and meniscus in a 2019 grappling match, which kept him out of action for 14 months following a 2019 decision win over Kron Gracie. While all four of his fights since returning from that knee injury ended in KO/TKOs, his previous 12 all ended in either decisions (6-2) or submissions (0-4). Swanson has won three of his last five fights, but he’s just 3-6 in his last nine and he’s been finished in seven of his last nine losses.
Now 28-13 as a pro, Swanson has 13 wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and 11 decision victories. He has three KO/TKO losses, seven submission defeats, and three decision losses. While his last two wins both ended in knockouts, those are his only two finishes since 2013. Despite being a BJJ black belt, Swanson hasn’t submitted anybody since 2009 and struggles with getting submitted himself.
Overall, Swanson is an aging veteran who’s struggled with consistency in recent years. He’s generally looking to keep things mostly standing and in his last 9 fights he’s only landed two takedowns on four attempts, while his opponents only got him down twice on 18 attempts. Looking at his entire UFC career, he has a 52% takedown accuracy and a 61% defense. After only getting knocked out once in his first 38 pro fights, Swanson now has two TKO losses in his last three matches, and it’s fair to question his durability at this stage in his career. We also don’t know how his body will react to dropping down a weight class and then putting that weight right back on. Swanson will turn 40 in November and you have to imagine his days in the UFC are numbered.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8”, but Dawodu will have a 3” reach advantage and is seven years younger than Swanson.
We were surprised that Swanson tried to drop down to 135 lb for his last fight, but at least he realized that was a dumb idea and immediately moved back up. Whether or not he’ll look like the same fighter from 2021 before he dropped down remains to be seen and he’s been fighting so infrequently lately that it’s hard to gauge where he’s currently at. We don’t see many 40 year old fighters on the roster, let alone at the lighter weight classes. This should be Swanson’s last fight before he hits that milestone and he’s taking on a tough opponent. However, Dawodu looked rough in his last outing and hasn’t been finishing anybody lately, so it’s hard to have much confidence in him putting Swanson away early. Dawodu has never been knocked out himself, and the most likely outcome here is that this ends in a decently high-volume decision where Dawodu outpoints his way to victory.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -104.
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DFS Implications:
Dawodu is a one-dimensional striker who has gone the distance in seven of his last eight fights and only has one finish in the UFC, which was a 2019 R3 knockout that still only scored 91 DraftKings points. The only other time he’s topped 71 DraftKings points was in a high-volume 2022 decision win over Mike Trizano where Dawodu landed a career best 141 significant strikes and scored 103 DraftKings points. He only averaged 65 DraftKings points in his other four UFC decision wins, scoring between 58 and 71 points in all of those. He’s only attempted two takedowns in nine UFC fights and failed to land either of those, which leaves him entirely reliant on his striking and landing knockouts to score well. In his last fight, Dawodu missed weight badly and looked terrible in the match, which makes it even tougher to trust him here. However, we expect that to be the common sentiment, which should drive his ownership down. That adds to his tournament appeal and the books actually think he’s more likely to land a knockout and win a decision, which is also very interesting. Swanson has been finished via TKO in each of his last two losses and will be turning 40 soon, in addition to the fact that he just moved down to 135 lb and will now be moving back up. So there are plenty of narrative takes to keep Dawodu in play if you can look past his past scoring and history of fighting to decisions. Ultimately, Dawodu will likely need a knockout in the first two rounds to return value at his high price tag. The odds imply Dawodu has a 66% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Swanson’s last two wins both ended in the first two rounds and returned DraftKings scores of 107 and 117, while he also scored 87 points in his last decision win. While he’s shown the ability to score well when he wins, he’s just 3-6 in his last nine fights and will turn 40 in November. His past scoring, cheap price tag, and name value should prevent him from going too low owned and he was somehow 31% owned on DraftKings in his recent loss at similar odds and pricing as this fight. Keep in mind, he was coming off a win there and it was just an 11 fight card, but still. Dawodu has never been knocked out and is a really solid striker who’s significantly younger than Swanson, so this looks like another tough spot for Swanson to really score well. If he does win, it’s possible Swanson could serve as a value play even without a finish, but Dawodu has a 57% striking defense and only averages 3.15 SSA/min, so Swanson will likely need a finish to really score well,a s he’s only landed two total takedowns in his last nine fights. The odds imply Swanson has a 34% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Rafael Dos Anjos
34th UFC Fight (21-12)Coming off a teed up second round submission win over Bryan Barberena, Dos Anjos has won three of his last four fights, with the one exception being a 2022 R5 KO loss to Rafael Fiziev. Dos Anjos really struggled with getting Rafael Fiziev to the mat, as he landed just 2 of his 16 attempts. Fiziev notably entered that matchup with an elite 95% takedown defense, so everyone has struggled to get him to the mat in fairness to Dos Anjos. Prior to that loss, Dos Anjos won a pair of five-round decisions over short notice replacements in Renato Moicano and Paul Felder. Dos Anjos dropped down to 155 lb leading up to those two wins to try and make one final title push, but after losing to Fiziev he bailed on those plans and returned to 170 lb for his last match, where it appears he’ll stay. The KO defeat to Fiziev is the only time Dos Anjos has been finished in his last 13 fights dating back to 2016. It’s rare to see Dos Anjos involved in a three-round match and eight of his last 10 fights have been scheduled to go five rounds.
Now 32-14 as a pro, Dos Anjos has five wins by KO/TKO, 11 submissions, and 16 decision victories. He’s only landed three finishes in his last 14 fights, with all three of those ending in submissions. The last time he knocked anybody out was in 2015. While he’s never been submitted himself, he’s been knocked out four times and has 10 decision losses. All four of his early losses occurred at 155 lb (2022 R5, 2016 R1, 2010 R3 & 2008 R3) and he’s never been finished at 170 lb. Dos Anjos started his UFC career in 2008 at 155 lb, but moved up to 170 lb in 2017 following a five-round decision loss to Tony Ferguson. After winning his first three fights up at 170 lb, he went just 1-4 in his next five as he faced a gauntlet of tough opponents in Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, Kevin Lee, Leon Edwards, and Michael Chiesa. After going 4-4 at 170 lb, he moved back down to 155 lb in 2020 for one final title run, where he went 2-1, before moving back up to 170 lb in 2022. Seven of Dos Anjos’ last 10 fights have gone the distance, including six five-round decisions.
This will be the 14th five-round fight of Dos Anjos’ UFC career (7-6). He’s gone 5-3 in his eight five-round fights at 155 lb, but just 2-3 in his five at 170 lb. His last nine five-round fights all made it to the championship rounds, with seven of those going the distance (3-4), one ending in a 2019 R4 submission win, and the other ending in a 2022 R5 KO loss. He won the Lightweight belt against Anthony Pettis in 2015 and then successfully defended it against Cerrone before losing it to Eddie Alvarez in 2016.
Here are all of Dos Anjos’ five-round UFC fight results:
2022 R5 KO L vs. Fiziev at 155 lb
2022 R5 DEC W vs. Moicano at 155 lb
2020 R5 DEC W vs. Felder at 155 lb
2019 R5 DEC L vs. Edwards at 170 lb
2019 R4 SUB W vs. Lee at 170 lb
2018 R5 DEC L vs. Usman at 170 lb
2018 R5 DEC L vs. Covington at 170 lb
2017 R5 DEC W vs. Lawler at 170 lb
2016 R5 DEC L vs. Ferguson at 155 lb
2016 R1 KO L vs. Alvarez at 155 lb (Title Fight)
2015 R1 KO W vs. Cerrone at 155 lb (Title Fight)
2015 R5 DEC W vs. Pettis at 155 lb (Title Fight)
2015 R1 KO W vs. Henderson at 155 lb
Overall, Dos Anjos is a 4th degree BJJ black belt who largely relies on his grappling to win fights on the mat. He’s gone 4-1 in his last five fights where he landed a takedown, but lost his last three where he didn’t. Looking at his entire 33 fight UFC career, he’s 15-4 in fights where he’s landed a takedown and 6-8 when he hasn’t. In his last three wins, he landed a combined 15 takedowns on 43 attempts (34.9% accuracy). He only averages 3.56 SSL/min and 3.21 SSA/min, and we generally don’t see huge striking totals in fights, although we’ve seen decent totals in some of his five round decisions. Dos Anjos is now 38 years old and has 46 pro fights under his belt, so who knows how much longer he’ll keep on going before he finally decides to hang it up.
Vicente Luque
20th UFC Fight (14-5)Luque is just over a year removed from the first knockout loss of his career, which came in the third round against Geoff Neal. Luque never looked like himself in the fight as he was just there to be hit and got knocked down twice in 12 minutes after previously only getting knocked down twice in his first 18 UFC fights combined. In one of the scarier injury reports you’ll come across, Luque also left that fight with “brain bleed” which resulted in a yearlong medical suspension and for him to get cleared by a neurosurgeon and a neurologist before he was allowed to return. Prior to that, Luque lost a five-round decision to Belal Muhammad and it’s now been just over two years since Luque won a fight, when he submitted Michael Chiesa in the first round of a 2021 match. However, Luque is still only 31 years old and has still gone 10-3 in his last 13 fights, despite dropping his last two. Five of his last six fights have ended early, with the one exception being the five-round decision loss to Muhammad. Luque has lost the last two and four of the five decisions he’s been to in the UFC, with the one exception being a 2019 split-decision win over Mike Perry.
Now 21-9-1 as a pro, Luque has 11 wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has six decision losses. Both of his submission losses occurred in the third round of fights early in his career in 2010 and 2013, while his lone knockout loss occurred in his last fight, also in the third round.
This will be just the 2nd five-round fight of Luque’s career. The first ended in a 2022 decision loss to Belal Muhammad, who took Luque down five times and controlled him for seven and a half minutes in a low-volume tactical battle.
Overall, Luque is a powerful high-volume striker who averages 5.49 SSL/min and 5.51/min. He’s struggled to defend takedowns recently and five of his last six opponents took him down, with the one exception being Tyrone Woodley, who failed to land his only attempt. Those six opponents landed 9 of their 21 attempts (57.1% defense), slightly below his 61% career takedown defense. Luque rarely lands any takedowns of his own, with zero landed in his last 13 fights. However, he has landed 10 knockdowns in his 18 UFC fights. Luque was awarded his black belts in both BJJ and Luta Livre in 2021, but his submissions are purely opportunistic and we rarely see him try and take fights to the mat. Since he last fought, Luque moved from Brazil to Florida and is now training at Kill Cliff FC year round opposed to just in the weeks leading up to fights. After looking bad in his last match and then taking a year off to recover from brain bleed, it will be interesting to see how Luque looks here, but it seems like he’s been slowing down lately.
Fight Prediction:
Luque will have a 3” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while being seven years younger than the 38-year-old Dos Anjos.
Unless the lines flips late in the week, this will be the first time Luque has ever been an underdog in a UFC fight. He’s also coincidentally coming off the first KO loss of his career, and hasn’t looked great in either of his last two fights. Luque’s striking defense has looked more vulnerable against southpaws, as he absorbed a career high in significant strikes against a southpaw in Bryan Barberena, who was also just one of the three UFC fighters to knock Luque down, two of which were southpaws. Luque has also looked vulnerable to being taken down, which is concerning for him as he takes on a dangerous black belt in Dos Anjos. Luque obviously has some serious red flags as he comes off a yearlong layoff resulting from “brain bleed” that he sustained in his last fight. He’s also lost his last two matches and seems to be slowing down from all the wear and tear, despite only being 31 years old. On the other side of things, Dos Anjos’ age (38) is also concerning, and he’s just 5-4 in the UFC at 170 lb. So both guys come in with some uncertainty, but stylistically, this looks like a much better matchup for Dos Anjos. Luque loves looking for opportunistic Brabo chokes, but otherwise his grappling is pretty limited and it would be very surprising to see him lock anything up against a high-level grappler like Dos Anjos. We expect Dos Anjos will come in looking to get the fight to the mat and will be successful in doing so. Luque has been submitted twice before, but not since 2013. Dos Anjos has all the skills needed to submit him, but can be content with playing with his food at times, and even showed some mercy against another fellow Brazilian in Renato Moicano, where Dos Anjos basically decided not to finish him. Considering Dos Anjos only has three finishes in his last 14 fights, it’s hard to trust him to end this one early and it won’t be shocking if he grinds out a decision win on the mat. However, we still lean towards Dos Anjos locking up a submission at some point in the fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Dos Santos’ ML” at -118.
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DFS Implications:
Dos Anjos has a history of putting up slate breaking scores in five-round fights that go the distance, averaging 143 DraftKings points and 131 points on FanDuel in his four UFC five-round decision wins. He also has three finishes in five-round fights, averaging 102 DraftKings points in those matches. In addition to those seven wins, he’s also lost six UFC five-round fights, but those defeats all came against a really high level of competition. The fact that Dos Anjos is now 38 years old is somewhat concerning, but this looks like a good stylistic matchup for him to find grappling success, as Luque has been taken down in five of his last six fights. Dos Anjos has scored 132 or more DraftKings points in all four of his UFC five-round decision wins, and has the highest scoring ceiling on the slate. At his cheaper price tag, it’s tough to find ways he fails in a win here, but a very poorly timed finish following a slower than expected start would probably be the one way. With that said, if he wins this fight he likely ends up in winning lineups on both sites. The odds imply Dos Anjos has a 53% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Luque has been a consistent DFS contributor who’s averaged 107 DraftKings points in his 14 UFC wins, with 13 of those victories coming early. He generally relies on his striking to win fights, but will look to lock up Brabo chokes when given the opportunity. However, he hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his last 13 fights. Dos Anjos is a high-level BJJ black belt and has never been submitted, so Luque looks more like a KO or bust option here. It’s been three years since he knocked anybody out and now he’s coming off a yearlong layoff following a scary case of “brain bleed.” Luque never looked good in that loss against a southpaw in Geoff Neal and will now face another southpaw in Dos Anjos. We expect Dos Anjos to be looking to take Luque down, which could limit Luque’s opportunities to land the knockout he likely needs to win. Working in Luque’s favor, Dos Anjos is 38 years old and has been knocked out four times in the past, although only once since 2016. That at least gives Luques some hope in landing a knockout, but this looks like a tough stylistic matchup for him. The odds imply Luque has a 47% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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