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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Natalia Silva
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a convincing upset decision win in her recent UFC debut following a two and a half year layoff, Silva defeated a taller wrestler in Jasmine Jasudavicius. That was Silva’s seventh straight win, with her previous six all ending in submissions. Her only loss in her last 11 fights came in a 2017 decision against UFC Strawweight Marina Rodriguez, when Silva was just 20 years old. Silva turned pro in 2015 just two months after her 18th birthday and had a rocky start to her career as she lost three of her first four fights. However, since then she’s gone 12-2-1 as she’s grown up inside of the cage. Silva had been scheduled to make her UFC debut against Victoria Leonardo in January 2021, but ended up withdrawing and sitting on the sidelines for another year and a half after breaking her arm.
In her last fight, Silva did a great job of defending all six of Jasmine Jasudavicius’ takedown attempts, which completely negated Jasudavicius’ one-dimensional wrestling offense. Silva was able to circle the outside of the Octagon and pick Jasudavicius apart with sharp combinations of kicks and punches for the duration of the match, and Jasudavicius had absolutely nothing to offer in the striking exchanges. Silva was able to land two of her own three takedown attempts, which were really more defensive reactions to Jasudavicius trying to get the fight to the ground than Silva actively looking to grapple. The fight ended with Silva ahead 96-31 in significant strikes and 120-40 in total strikes as she cruised to a unanimous decision victory, winning every round on every scorecard. One thing worth pointing out is that the fight took place in the larger 30 ft Octagon, which benefited Silva as she looked to circle away from contact strike from the outside.
Now 13-5-1 as a pro, Silva has three wins by KO, seven by submission, one by DQ, and two decisions. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. All three of her early losses occurred in her first four pro fights when she was just 18 years old. She got knocked out in the second round of her pro debut, and was then submitted in the first round in her third and fourth pro fights. Her only two losses since 2015 both ended in decisions and she showed her toughness going the distance against a 30-year-old Marina Rodriguez, when Silva was just 20 years old. Silva fought some at 115 lb early in her career when she was really young, but has remained at 125 lb since 2018.
Overall, Silva is a promising young fighter, who’s done a good job of rounding out her skill sets in recent years. She has made improvements to her boxing, as she used to rely mostly on kicks and grappling to get by in fights. She still throws a high number of kicks as well, which can help her to find her range when she faces taller opposition, but has dangerous hands and great footwork. On the mat, she’s primarily looking to lock up armbars, something she’s had a lot of success with.
Tereza Bleda
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Fresh off a September decision win on DWCS, Bleda only turned pro two years ago and has just six fights on her record. She’s from the Czech Republic, where her first five pro fights took place before she went on DWCS. Now she’ll be fighting for the second time in the Apex in just over months.
In her last fight, Bleda landed her first takedown attempt in the opening seconds of the fight, but her opponent was able to use a kneebar attempt to reverse the position. Bleda then landed a reverse of her own to regain top position and control her opponent, Nayara Maia, for the remainder of the round. Bleda got taken down by Maia early in round two, but Maia curiously allowed Bleda to return to her feet. After a failed kneebar attempt, Maia found herself back in bottom position, where she again stayed for the remainder of the round. Maia shot for a takedown early in round three, but ultimately ended up in bottom position once again following the failed attempt. Bleda once again was able to control Maia for an extended period of time. Maia was finally able to return to her feet in the final 90 seconds of the round, but Bleda immediately landed a knee that crumpled Maia back to the mat and Bleda pounced on top. The ref was close to stopping the fight, but Maia was able to do just enough to to stave that off and at least survive to see the judges. Bleda finished ahead 50-9 in significant strikes and 121-37 in total strikes on her way to a unanimous 30-26 decision win. Both fighters landed one takedown, Maia on three attempts and Bleda on one, while Bleda led in control time 11:06-1:51.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Bleda has two wins by TKO, two by submission, and two decisions. Both of her submissions came in round one, while her TKO wins were split across the first two rounds. She never finished an opponent beyond the seven minute mark and her last three finishes came in round one. Two of her first three pro fights were at 135 lb, but the rest of her fights have been down at 125 lb, where she’ll be making her debut.
Overall, Bleda is a one-dimensional wrestler who relies on her size to overpower opponents. She doesn’t offer much on the feet and, nor is she super active on that mat. However, maybe we can chalk that up to a lack of experience, as she has shown glimpses of potential on the ground, like when she finished her second most recent opponent with a series of heavy elbows. Other times she’s been content with simply holding position, and at 20 years old she’s still incredibly young in her career. The UFC is likely more intrigued by her physical attributes than her recent DWCS performance, and she does have good size for the 125 lb division, as she stands 5’9”.
Fight Prediction:
Bleda will have a 5” height advantage and 6” reach advantage. Silva is five years older than the 20-year-old Bleda.
This sets up as a tough matchup for Bleda, as Silva is the far superior striker and is also more of a submission threat on the mat. The one thing Bleda will have going for her is her size, so there’s always a chance she could overpower the smaller Silva on the ground, but she’ll need to be careful not to get armbarred along the way. We expect Silva to pick Bleda apart in the striking exchanges, and Bleda will have no choice but to try and get this fight to the mat. In her last fight, Silva did a great job of defending takedowns from Jasmine Jasudavicius, who has a similar body type and fighting style as Bleda. That’s a good sign for Silva going into this matchup. If Silva is able to keep the fight standing, look for her to outland her way to another lopsided decision win, but if it ends up on the ground we like her chances of locking up an armbar submission. Either way we like Silva to win this one.
Our favorite bet here is Silva’s ML at -160.
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DFS Implications:
Silva is coming off a decision win in her UFC debut where she scored 85 DraftKings as she landed a good amount of striking volume (96 SS), while tacking on a couple of takedowns. While that shows a decent floor, it still wouldn’t be enough to return value in this next fight at her expensive price tag. She’s facing a very similar matchup in this fight as she was in her debut as she takes on another tall wrestler who will be trying to take her down. While that does leave Silva with the striking advantage, it also means she’ll be defending takedowns throughout the match, opposed to it being a high-volume back and forth brawl. That leaves her more reliant on landing a finish to score well. Working in her favor, Silva landed six straight submission wins just prior to joining the UFC, and Bleda will likely have no choice but to try and get this fight to the ground. That should give Silva some opportunities to lock up an armbar, although she’ll still need to outscore the fighters priced around her. So there is the possibility that she gets taken down, lands an armbar, and still doesn’t crack winning lineups. Nevertheless, she has a solid ceiling, a decent floor, and gets to face a 20-year-old making her UFC debut. Silva also projects to be fairly low owned after the line moved against her, so she makes for an interesting tournament play. The odds imply she has a 59% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Bleda is a 20-year-old one-dimensional wrestler making her UFC debut and only turned pro 26 months ago. She’s consistently looking to get fights to the ground, but has been somewhat sporadic with her level of activity once she gets there, and at times will just ride out positions on the mat, while other times will more aggressively look to do damage. Her striking on the feet leaves a lot to be desired, and while she has the frame to be a problem in the division, she’s incredibly green. She likely would have benefited from more time on the regional scene before getting thrown into the fire at such a young age, but maybe she can learn on the job and rely on her wrestling until her striking catches up. Based on her wrestling-heavy style of fighting, she’ll be an interesting DraftKings play given the right matchup, but this looks like a tough spot for her as she faces a well rounded fighter in Silva who has both crisp striking and dangerous grappling. Bleda’s one path to victory will be to control Silva on the mat, while avoiding getting armbarred. If that does end up happening, she has the potential to score well on DraftKings even in a decision, but will need a finish on FanDuel. The odds imply she has a 41% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Brady Hiestand
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Hiestand is 15 months removed from a split-decision loss to Ricky Turcios on The Ultimate Fighter finale in August 2021. He had knee surgery 13 months ago to repair a complete tear to his ACL that he claimed he had fought through on TUF, which resulted in the long layoff. Still just 23 years old, Hiestand turned pro in 2018 when he was just 19 and won his first four fights. However, he’s since lost two of his last three official matches, not counting his two exhibition wins on TUF leading up to the finale.
In his last fight, Hiestand took Turcios down early in the first round, but Turcios stayed active off his back while Hiestand was more focussed on control. Turcios was able to return to his feet in the back half of the round and the two stood and traded to close out the first five minutes. We continued to see nonstop scrambles on the mat and the feet for the remainder of the fight, with Turcios finishing ahead 100-66 in significant strikes and 201-82 in total strikes. Turcios was also able to drop Hiestand in the third round. Hiestand landed 6 of his 11 takedown attempts with 7:40 of control time, while Turcios landed two takedowns of his own on four attempts with 2:32 of control time. Despite Turcios finishing so far ahead in striking, the judges were split on who won, but Turcios got his hand raised.
Still just 5-2 as a pro, Hiestand has two wins by TKO, two by submission, and one decision victory. All four of his finishes occurred in the first round. He’s coming off the only decision loss of his career, with his only other defeat coming in a 2019 R3 TKO against Chad Anheliger, who has since joined the UFC. Hiestand has amazingly never defeated an opponent that has ever won a pro fight, with his five wins coming against fighters who entered with records of 0-2, 0-0, 0-4, 0-6, and 0-12. Hiestand made his 2018 pro debut at 155 lb and landed a submission win, but dropped all the way down to 135 lb for his second fight. Since then, he’s had two fights at 145 lb, both of which he won in the first round, and four fights at 135 lb (2-2). His only early win at 135 lb came in a R1 TKO in his third pro fight back in 2018.
Overall, Hiestand is a BJJ brown belt and a black belt in karate, who relies heavily on his wrestling. He’s a training partner of Michael Chiesa and it shows in his grappling-heavy approach to fighting. He landed six takedowns in his last fight and also landed six takedowns in a decision win on TUF, so he’s consistently shown the ability to rack up takedowns.
Fernie Garcia
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss in his recent UFC debut, Garcia has gone the distance in six of his last seven fights, with the one exception being a R1 TKO win on DWCS against a suspect Josh Weems. That’s the only time Garcia has ever knocked anyone out. Garcia hasn’t faced much in terms of competition and only four of his 10 wins have come against opponents with winning records, and one of those four was against a 45 year old opponent who took the fight on short notice.
In his last fight, Garcia got taken down by Journey Newson midway through the first round, which was the first takedown Newson had landed in four UFC fights. However, Garcia was quickly able to return to his feet and escape back to space. Newson was able to hurt Garcia on the feet midway through round two, but Garcia was able to recover as Newson never really pushed for the finish. Newson landed another takedown early in round three, but again, Garcia was able to quickly return to his feet. Newson was patient throughout the fight, even when he had Garcia hurt, and on the flipside, Garcia was never really able to get much going in the fight. It ended with Newson ahead 57-37 in significant strikes and 63-38 in total strikes, while he landed two of his three takedown attempts and cruised to a unanimous decision win.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Garcia has one win by KO, three by submission, and six decisions. He’s never been finished with both of his losses ending in decisions. Interestingly, four of the seven decisions Garcia has been to have been split. Eleven of his 12 fights have ended in either the first round (3) or gone the distance (8). He started his pro career at 145 lb in 2015, but dropped down to 135 lb in his fourth fight, where he’s stayed other than one 140 lb Catchweight match in 2019.
Overall, Garcia is a boxer who generally tends to wear on his opponents more than finishing them quickly, with the exception obviously coming in his last fight. He’s pretty heavy on his lead leg and has looked extremely vulnerable to getting it chewed up through leg kicks. While he’s just a BJJ purple belt, he will mix in takedowns and has three first round submission wins. He tends to start fast but fade/cruise a little down the stretch, opposed to really pushing for late finishes, so it’s not surprising that he’s been to so many decisions and doesn’t have any late finishes. He does throw high-volume combinations and a ton of strikes in general, so you can’t blame him for slowing down later in fights and it’s not like he’s completely gassing out or anything. He fights out of Fortis MMA and trains closely with Damon Jackson and Miles Johns.
Fight Prediction:
Hiestand will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. He’s also seven years younger than the 30-year-old Garcia.
This sets up as your classic wrestler versus striker matchup and we fully expect Hiestand to be looking to take Garcia down early and often. Garcia is a one-dimensional boxer, although he does have a few rear-naked choke wins on his record. Hiestand hasn’t looked like much of a finisher when facing legitimate talent and Garcia has never been finished, so we’d be somewhat surprised to see Hiestand put Garcia away. Garcia also hasn’t looked very dangerous and relies more on volume. We like Hiestand to win a decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Hiestand DEC” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Hiestand’s grappling heavy approach is better suited to the DraftKings scoring system as he has the potential to rack up ground strikes and control time, however, if he puts up a huge takedown total or lands a finish he’ll be useful on both sites. Had the split decision gone his way in his last fight, he would have scored 108 points on DraftKings and 96 FanDuel points. It is crazy that he’s never beaten an opponent with a single professional win, but he’s still very early in his career at just 23 years old and with just seven pro fights. His wrestling upside is undeniable, as he landed six takedowns in his last fight and six more in a decision win on The Ultimate Fighter. Now he’s facing a one-dimensional boxer and this looks like a good opportunity for Hiestand to dominate the fight on the ground. He is notably coming off knee surgery and a 15 month layoff, so Hiestand does have a few red flags, but we like him to score well in a wrestling-heavy decision here. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Garcia has shown the ability to put up solid striking numbers and will also mix in takedowns at times, but he looked bad in his recent debut and has just one knockout victory in his career. Perhaps we can chalk up his recent struggles in his debut to Octagon jitters, but he also hasn’t faced much in terms of competition in his career, so it’s hard to know where he stacks up at the UFC level. He relies heavily on his boxing to win fights, and now he’s facing a one-dimensional wrestler who will be looking to grind him out on the mat. So while Garcia should be able to find success on the feet in this matchup, he’ll likely spend most of it defending takedowns and trying to work back to his feet. That’s not very encouraging for his chances of scoring well in a volume-driven decision and leaves him more reliant on landing a finish, something he’s really struggled with. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Maria Oliveira
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off a split decision win over Gloria de Paula, Oliveira’s brawling fighting style may not always get her the win, as she’s just 3-3 in her last six fights, but she always makes for fun fights. While she’s always looking to land knockouts, three of her last four fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 63 second R1 knockout win just before she joined the UFC. Take that win with a grain of salt as her opponent was fighting for the first and only time as a pro. Oliveira then made her UFC debut against a grappler in Tabatha Ricci and got smoked on the mat in a decision loss. Oliveira originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS Brazil, but got knocked out by Marina Rodriguez in the first round.
In her last fight, Oliveira came out swinging, aggressively looking for an early finish. She appeared to be slowing down some in the back half of the round, and her output waned some as the fight went on. After surviving the initial blitz from Oliveira, Gloria de Paula took the striking lead in round two and also landed a takedown late in the round. Oliveira found a second wind in the third round and was able to make the final five minutes close, as she also landed two takedowns of her own, while getting taken down one more time by De Paula. The fight ended with De Paula ahead in significant strikes 105-96 and in total strikes 116-99, while both fighters landed two takedowns, but two of the three judges thought Oliveira had done enough and she went on to win a split decision.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Oliveira has seven wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. She’s been finished in two of her last three losses, with both of those losses coming in the first two rounds. Only 3 of her 13 pro wins have come against opponents with winning records, and most of her wins have come against pretty dubious competition.
Overall, Oliveira is a one-dimensional striker with a Muay Thai background and is helpless off her back. She showed in her last fight that she can hang on the feet, but can also get a little carried away looking for finishes as she blitzes forward early in fights. With that said, that level of aggressiveness makes for exciting fights and can be successful against other low-level opponents. She’s definitely dangerous with her striking and throws a ton of volume, but her grappling still appears to be her biggest weakness, which could be a problem for her in this next matchup. Oliveira has been taken down 8 times on 15 attempts (46.7% defense) in her two UFC fights and one DWCS Brazil appearance.
Vanessa Demopoulos
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Fresh off a close/questionable decision win over Jinh Yu Frey, Demopoulos could easily be 0-3 right now in the UFC after she almost got knocked out just before that split-decision win. She was narrowly able to survive getting dropped in that prior loss and then threw up her guard and locked up an armbar against the highly submittable Silvana Gomez Juarez. Demopoulos originally made her UFC debut in August 2021 up a weight class in a terrible matchup against J.J. Aldrich and lost a decision. She originally attempted to punch her ticket to the UFC through DWCS in August 2020, but lost a smothering decision to Cory McKenna and was forced to return to the LFA. She then lost a decision to Loopy Godinez, but bounced back with a R1 TKO win that was good enough for the UFC to give her a shot. Demopoulos is just 3-3 in her last six fights.
In Demopoulos’ last fight, Frey patiently picked her apart on the feet early on, before Demopoulos landed her only successful takedown in the fight with just over a minute remaining in the first round. However, Demopoulos did literally nothing with the position and Frey quickly returned to her feet. Frey finished the first round ahead in striking and won the round on two of the judges’ scorecards, only losing in the eyes of the judge that scored all three rounds for Demopoulos and clearly was watching something other than the actual fight. Demopoulos tried harder to get the fight to the ground in round two, but Frey was able to stuff all four of her attempts, while also outlanding her on the feet. Despite finishing ahead on the numbers, two of the judges scored round two for Demopoulos, who then came out more aggressive in the third round, likely thinking she was behind in the fight. Frey again shutdown all of Demopoulos’ takedown attempts in round three, but did allow herself to get controlled along the fence for a period of time. All three judges scored round three for Demopoulos and the decision came down to a swing judge in round two and it ended in a Demopoulos split-decision win. Demopoulos closed the striking gap in round three and actually finished ahead in significant strikes 66-62, while Frey led in total strikes 81-71. Demopoulos was only able to land one of her seven takedown attempts, but led in control time 4:14-0:11, while Frey missed on her only takedown.
Now 8-4 as a pro, Demopoulos has one TKO win, four by submission, and three decision victories. All four of her career losses have ended in decisions, with three of those four defeats coming in her last six fights, as she’s really struggled when facing tougher opponents.
Overall, Demopoulos is a BJJ brown belt and relies mostly on her grappling. While she doesn’t mind mixing it up on the feet, she’s a sloppy striker and tends to be very hittable. While her grappling is adequate, her wrestling is pretty terrible and she’s only landed one takedown on 14 attempts (7.1% accuracy) in her three UFC fights and DWCS appearance. In fairness to her, three of those four opponents have really solid takedown defenses and Demopoulos didn’t have time to attempt a takedown before she got dropped in her other fight. We’re willing to give Demopoulos a little slack based on the opponents she’s faced, but if she struggles to land takedowns in this next matchup then there will be no more excuses.
Fight Prediction:
Oliveira will have a 4” height advantage and 10” reach advantage. She’s also nine years younger than the 34-year-old Demopoulos.
This sets up as a fast-paced, sloppy brawl, with Demopoulos looking to get the fight to the ground before she gets dropped on the feet. Demopoulos will throw down in a striking battle, but typically comes out on the wrong end of things and she would be a fool not to quickly look to get this fight to the mat. The real question is whether or not she’ll be able to as she has a putrid 7% takedown accuracy. With that said, this is probably the best possible matchup she could ask for and Oliveira has looked incredibly prone to getting taken down and has also been submitted twice in the past. As the odds suggest, this fight appears close to a coinflip and it will simply come down to where it takes place. If Oliveira can keep it standing, she should be able to outland her way to victory with a chance she can land a knockout. However, if Demopoulos can get it to the ground, she should be able to control Oliveira and has a good chance of locking up a submission. We certainly won’t be shocked to see it go the distance as Demopoulos has never been finished and has only landed one submission in her last six fights, but there’s a good chance it ends early. Considering this is the best matchup she could ask for, we’ll say Demopoulos wins by submission, most likely in a round one armbar, but this is going to be dicey and she’ll likely have to eat some punches on the feet before she can find a takedown.
Our favorite bet here is “Demopoulos SUB” at +440.
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DFS Implications:
Oliveira scored 82 DraftKings points in her recent decision win and has a decent scoring floor through pure striking volume. However, now she’s going against a grappler, which could slow down the striking pace and make it tougher for Oliveira to score well in a decision if she gets controlled for periods of time. If this fight hits the mat, there’s a good chance Oliveira will get submitted, so we can’t trust her floor and she’s not someone we’re looking to play in low-risk contests. She likely needs to hand Demopoulos the first KO loss of her career to crack tournament winning lineups—or at least hit her hard enough that she forgets she’s a grappler. The odds imply Oliveira has a 51% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one. Oliveira ranks well in the Model, especially on FanDuel.
Demopoulos’ aggressive fighting style lends itself well towards uptempo high scoring fights, although she would prefer to hunt for submissions on the mat then trade strikes on the feet. Her takedown accuracy has been terrible (7%) and she only landed one takedown so far in the UFC, albeit against some tough opponents to take down. She’ll get a much easier matchup here from a wrestling standpoint, so if she can’t get this fight to the ground then she might as well stop even trying. Demopoulos has been on the winning end of two straight close fights, both of which she easily could have lost, so she may be due for some regression here sooner rather than later. Nevertheless, this is the best matchup she could ask for as she takes on a green one-dimensional striker with a poor takedown defense. We expect mayhem in this matchup, with high scoring potential for the winner. The odds imply she has a 49% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Ricky Turcios
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Fresh off a wildly inefficient performance, Turcios lost a decision to Aiemann Zahabi after winning The Ultimate Fighter in 2021. Turcios originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2017, but after losing a decision to Boston Salmon Turcios returned to the regional scene where he went 2-1 before going on TUF in 2021. He relied on his pace and output to make it to the TUF finals, where he continued to outwork his way to a split-decision victory in the finals.
In his last fight, Turcios struggled to find his range against the patient counter striker Aiemann Zahabi, who sat back and looked to load up on his punches. Turcios threw more than twice as many strikes as Zahabi, but only landed 27 of the 235 strikes he threw (11.5%), while Zahabi landed 54 of the 105 strikes he threw (51.4%). Turcios also attempted two takedowns in the fight, but failed to land either of them. Zahabi went on to win a unanimous 29-28 decision in an uneventful fight.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Turcios has three wins by KO, one by submission, and seven decisions. The only time he’s been finished was in a 2018 R1 TKO against Mana Martinez, who’s now 1-1 in the UFC. Turcios’ other two losses both ended in decisions. Turcios started his career 8-0 prior to that loss. Three of his four career finishes have come in the later rounds, but he’s only finished one opponent since 2016, which was in a 2020 R2 armbar submission win. Twelve of his 14 pro fights have made it out of the first round, with the two exceptions being a 2016 R1 TKO win and a 2018 R1 TKO loss. Other than one trip up to 145 lb in 2020, Turcios has spent his entire career at 135 lb.
Overall, Turcios weaponizes his cardio as he pushes a wild pace, with the goal of outworking his opponents. He’ll throw up lots of loose submissions, but rarely locks anything in. His striking style is similar to his grappling, where he’s constantly working, but not landing many shots with fight-ending intentions. He fights like he’s in outer space, throwing strikes from all angles, regardless of the position he’s in, whether it’s from his back, on the feet, upside down, or whatever other spot you can put him in.
Kevin Natividad
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Making his return to the Octagon after 19 months away following arm/elbow surgery, Natividad has been knocked out in both of his UFC fights and only lasted 50 seconds against Batgerel Danaa in his last match. Prior to that, Natividad was knocked out in the third round of his 2020 UFC debut against Miles Johns. Before those two early losses, Natividad had won five straight fights, with three of those ending in knockouts.
Natividad’s last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, as Natividad got dropped with a check left hook and he pushed forward against a dangerous Batgerel Danaa, who immediately jumped on top and finished Natividad with ground and pound. The fight ended in just 50 seconds with Danaa ahead in significant strikes 7-3.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Natividad has five wins by KO, one by submission, and three decision victories. He has two first round knockout wins, two more in round two, and one in round three. His lone submission win came in the first round of his 2016 pro debut. He’s been knocked out in all three of his losses, with two of those ending in round one and the other in round three.
Overall, Natividad is a patient striker and also a BJJ brown belt. He switched camps to Fight Ready leading up to this matchup, so it will be interesting to see what improvements he’s made, especially now that he’s taken care of his elbow injury that he said had been compromising him for a while. Natividad often gets his lead leg attacked due to his wide stance, so it will be interesting to see if he’s improved that. Natividad is talking like he completely changed his game in his time away, so it’s possible we’ll see a new version of him here.
Fight Prediction:
Turcios will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Natividad has been away so long that it’s hard to know what to expect out of him. He’s making it sound like he’s completely changed his approach after switching to Fight Ready, so we’ll see if that translates to the Octagon. He’s talked about trying to increase his striking volume, while not pushing so hard for finishes. This will be the perfect matchup for him to land more volume as he goes against a high-paced opponent in Turcios, who doesn’t have a ton of power to really threaten a knockout. We expect Turcios to never stop working, so it will be interesting to see if Natividad can keep up with his pace. Natividad looks to have more power, but has also had a dubious chin. In the end, we expect Turcios to be the more active fighter, so it will be on Natividad to land the more impactful shots or find a finish if he wants to get his hand raised. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Natividad, which makes this a higher variance spot, but we’re leaning Turcios by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -175.
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DFS Implications:
Turcios’ last fight was a disaster and he could never find his range as he threw 235 strikes, but only landed 27 of them (11.5%), and only scored 11 DraftKings points in an uneventful decision loss. However, prior to that he scored 120 points in a split-decision win, showing a massive ceiling even when he doesn’t land a finish. He doesn’t have a ton of power or really crisp submission skills, but his motor never stops and he has the ability to push a crazy pace. So given the right matchup, he can put up huge striking totals, while also mixing in takedowns. Whether or not this next matchup will be conducive to that is somewhat unclear, as Natividad has yet to be in a high-volume fight in the UFC, but also hasn’t fought in a year and a half, just switched camps to Fight Ready, and has talked about trying to increase his volume. Still, we’ve yet to see anything from Natividad inside of the Octagon that would suggest he’ll take part in a high-volume brawl, so it requires a leap of faith to think we’ll see it here. While Natividad has been knocked out in all three of his career losses, Turcios doesn’t have much power and hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2016. More likely Turcios will be reliant on landing a massive amount of volume to score well in a decision and it’s unclear if this is the right matchup for him to do that. One thing he has going for him is that his ownership should be lower in DFS tournaments following his stinker of a performance in his last outing, which certainly adds to his appeal. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Natividad has been knocked out in both of his UFC fights and hasn’t competed since April 2021. He recently moved to Fight Ready and had elbow surgery to fix an ongoing problem that had been compromising his ability to use his left arm in fights, so we could see a whole new version of him. He’s talked about wanting to land more volume in fights and this is the perfect matchup for him to show that, but we really don’t know if all that talk will actually translate inside of the Octagon. While Natividad has had a suspect chin, getting knocked out in all three of his pro losses, Turcios doesn’t have much power and is unlikely to really capitalize on that. That makes Natividad more of an interesting play here at his cheap price tag, but we really don’t know what we’re going to get from him so it’s hard to have too much confidence in this spot. What we do know is that he should have a higher floor and ceiling in this spot compared to his last two matchups and he’ll also be low owned. That’s basically all you can ask for in a tournament dart throw. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Miles Johns
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Johns stepped into this matchup just over two weeks ago after Jose Johnson dropped out, so he hasn’t had much time to prepare. The last time we saw Johns was in February 2022 when he got submitted by John Castaneda in the third round. That’s just the second time Johns has lost in his career, and he won three of his first four UFC matches prior to that. His last four fights all ended early (2-2), but all 14 of his career fights have made it to the second round. His last three fights all ended in round three, with a pair of second round knockouts leading up to his recent submission loss.
In his last fight, we saw a slow start for the first half of the fight before Castaneda began to put it on Johns in the second round as Johns began to fade down the stretch. Castaneda continued to assault Johns in round three and dropped him with a knee to the head and a combination of punches before locking up an arm triangle on the mat. While we didn’t see big striking totals in the fight, Castaneda made his shots count as he tactfully dismantled Johns. The fight ended early in round three with Castaneda ahead 58-34 in significant strikes and 68-34 in total strikes. Both fighters failed to land their only takedown attempt, but Castaneda finished with one official knockdown and could have had two.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Johns has four wins by KO, two by submission, and six via decision. Both of his losses ended early, with a second round flying knee KO against Mario Bautista and then the recent third round submission against John Castaneda. Johns is 6-0 in fights that go the distance including a 5-round split decision win over Adrian Yanez for the LFA belt back in 2018.
Overall, Johns has a wrestling background and actually turned down a wrestling scholarship to focus on MMA. Despite his wrestling experience, he has only landed one takedown on 10 attempts in his five UFC fights. However, he did go 3 for 4 on takedowns in his DWCS fight just before joining the UFC. Lately, he’s been using his wrestling more defensively, as his opponents in the UFC have gone 1 for 13 on their takedown attempts against him. Johns’ elite 92% takedown defense also factors in his DWCS fight where his opponent went 0 for 1. Johns typically doesn’t throw many leg strikes, and in his last six fights he’s landed 1, 15, 6, 2, 0, and 0 (DWCS). While he’s only once landed double digit leg strikes, he severely compromised the lead leg of Anderson dos Santos in that fight, showing he’s at least capable of successfully executing the attack.
Vince Morales
8th UFC Fight (3-4)Morales had been scheduled to face a UFC newcomer in Jose Johnson here, but Johnson dropped out and in-stepped UFC veteran Miles Johns on just over two weeks’ notice. That’s a dramatically tougher matchup for Morales, who could be fighting for his job here as he sits on a 3-4 UFC record. He’s gone just 2-3 in his last five fights and has yet to figure out how to prevent his legs from getting destroyed in fights. Morales originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2018, but got submitted in the second round by Domingo Pilarte. He then took a fight in Bellator before getting the call up to make his UFC debut in a brutally tough spot against Song Yadong, who defeated Morales in a decision. Morales has since gone 3-3.
In his last fight, Morales once again struggled with getting his legs chewed up by calf kicks, which has been his Achilles heel throughout his time in the UFC. Jonathan Martinez was able to land 29 leg strikes and Morales really had no answer for the attack that continues to plague him. The fight was largely uneventful, with Martinez patiently picking Morales apart and then landing a pair of takedowns to close it out. Neither guy was ever at risk of being finished, and Martinez easily cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win. The fight ended with Martinez ahead 88-51 in significant strikes and 88-62 in total strikes, while he landed the only two takedowns attempted in the match.
Now 11-6 as a pro, Morales has six wins by KO, two by submission and three decisions. He has one TKO loss (by leg strikes), two by submission, and three decision defeats. Nine of his last 10 fights have seen the second round, with the one exception being a 2021 R1 KO win over Louis Smolka, which is Morales’ only early win in the UFC. Six of his last eight fights have gone the distance, and the only other time one of his UFC fights has ended early was in a 2020 R2 TKO loss by leg strikes against Chris Gutierrez.
Overall, Morales is a decently well rounded fighter, who’s biggest issue has been defending leg kicks, but he doesn’t really stand out anywhere. His inability to defend calf kicks consistently leaves him compromised in fights, which makes it tougher for him to be competitive in those fights down the stretch. While Morales has a background in wrestling, he failed to even attempt a takedown in six of his seven UFC fights or his DWCS match. In the one fight where he actually looked to wrestle, he still only landed one of his four attempts (25% accuracy). On the flip side, he’s been taken down 9 times on 16 attempts (43.8% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Morales will have a 4” reach advantage. Johns is four years younger than the 32-year-old Morales.
There are several factors to consider here when evaluating this matchup. First, Johns took this fight on just over two weeks’ notice and faded late in his last fight, so cardio will be a concern for him. And on the other side of things, Morales has been incredibly prone to getting his legs torn up, but Johns has only once landed more than six leg strikes in a fight and typically relies more on his boxing. With that said, the one time he did utilize more leg strikes he was able to completely compromise Anderson dos Santos’ leg and then Johns eventually landed a third round knockout. That one result gives us reason to think Johns will utilize more leg strikes here, but it’s hard to be entirely confident in that, as he’s only landed nine total leg strikes in his other five most recent fights. Regardless of how many leg strikes Johns throws, we expect this to play out as a slower paced boxing match. Both guys have wrestling backgrounds, but they’ve each only landed one takedown in their respective UFC careers, and it’s rare to see either guy look to wrestle much. Both guys have shown a solid chin, with the only KO loss of Johns’ career coming from a flying knee, and the only TKO loss of Morales’ career coming from leg strikes. Because of that, it would be somewhat surprising if this fight didn’t end with the judges. But if it does end early, look for it to come in a late round knockout. With that said, we like Johns to win by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Miles Johns Win & Over 1.5 Rounds” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Johns is stepping into this fight on relatively short notice (just over two weeks) and is coming off the first submission loss of his career, in a fight that he faded down the stretch. None of that is very encouraging for him, but he does get a slower paced matchup here that should remain on the feet, which is less likely to wear on his gas tank. While Johns landed finishes in his two wins leading up to his recent loss, he only scored 87 and 81 DraftKings points in the pair of third round knockouts. The one other win of his UFC career ended in a decision and Johns only scored 64 DraftKings points. Despite his wrestling background, he’s rarely looking to take fights to the ground and has only landed one takedown on 10 attempts in his five UFC fights. He also only averages 3.85 SSL/min and runs into cardio concerns in highest paced fights. That appears to leave him reliant on landing a finish in the first two rounds, something he’s never done in the UFC. Further limiting his scoring potential, all 14 of his pro fights have made it to the second round, and Morales’ only KO/TKO loss came from leg strikes. Johns has only once landed more than six leg strikes in a fight, but was able to beat up the lead leg of Anderson dos Santos in that one instance, where Johns landed 15 leg strikes that eventually led to a third round knockout. While it’s not impossible for Johns to crack winning lineups with a third round finish, especially on FanDuel, he more likely needs to end this in the first two rounds to put up a decent DraftKings score. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Morales is similar to Johns in several ways from a DFS perspective. He has a wrestling background but has only landed one takedown in the UFC, he relies heavily on his boxing, and he doesn’t throw a ton of volume (4.42 SSL/min). He returned scores of just 68 and 54 DraftKings points in his two decision wins, with his only usable performance coming in his lone early win with the organization, when he knocked Louis Smolka out in the first round and scored 111 points. The fact that Johns accepted this fight on relatively short notice is a boost for Morales, but he hasn’t looked especially dangerous, and is still unlikely to find a finish unless Johns gasses out—which is possible. Even at his cheaper price tag, we don’t see Morales scoring enough to be useful in a decision, unless only 2-3 total underdogs on the slate win. Morales’ last three losses have all come against opponents with kick-heavy attacks and he’s been incredibly prone to getting his calf torn up. While Johns isn’t known for his kicking game, he was able to compromise the lead leg of Anderson dos Santos, so it will be interesting to see how many leg kicks Johns throws. If Johns foolishly opts not to attack Morales’ glaring weakness, then Morales will have a shot at outlanding his way to victory with a slight chance he can finish Johns down the stretch if Johns gasses out, which we’ve seen from him before. With that said, similar to Johns, Morales could struggle to put up a big score even in a third round finish. The difference is Morales is cheaper so he would still have a good shot at serving as a value play even without a really big score. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Maryna Moroz
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Coming in on a three fight winning streak, Moroz recently submitted former teammate Mariya Agapova in the second round of her last fight, after winning a pair of decisions over Mayra Bueno Silva and Sabina Mazo. Moroz hasn't lost a fight since a 2018 decision defeat to Angela Hill, but has only fought three times since then.
In her last fight, Moroz pushed Agapova up against the cage for an extended period of time early on and then took down midway through the first round. Moroz then immediately took her back and began looking for a rear-naked choke. She looked like she had it locked in, but Agapova was able to survive and reverse the position. However, Moroz immediately looked for an armbar at that point but ended up with Agapova on her back for a brief period of time before regaining control before the round ended. Moroz immediately worked to return the fight to the ground in round two as Agapova faded, and after a brief period with the two spent along the fence, Moroz landed the takedown. Moroz slowly worked her way to top position and began landing ground and pound before finishing the fight with an arm triangle. The fight ended with Moroz ahead in significant strikes 28-16, while Agapova led in total strikes 72-51. Moroz landed two of her five takedown attempts, with three official submission attempts and 6:43 in control time.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Moroz has one win by KO, six by submission and four decisions. Six of her seven finishes occurred in her first six pro fights, with five of her six submission wins ending in armbars. Moroz has never been finished, with all three of her losses going the distance. Her first six UFC bouts were all down at 115 lb, before she moved up to 125 lb for her last three matches. After going 3-3 at 115 lb in the UFC, she’s 3-0 at 125 lb.
Overall, Moroz is a Master of Sports in boxing and kickboxing and was a member of the Ukrainian National Boxing Team, so her background is all striking based. However, she’s typically looking to get fights to the ground lately. After she only landed one takedown on five attempts in her six UFC fights at 115 lb, she’s landed five takedowns on 22 attempts in her three fights up at 125 lb. So overall, she’s landed 6 of her 27 takedown attempts in the UFC (22.2% accuracy). She’s 4-0 in UFC fights where she’s landed at least one takedown, but just 2-3 when she hasn’t landed any. The only time she’s won a decision without landing a takedown was a 2016 split decision over Danielle Taylor.
Jennifer Maia
10th UFC Fight (4-5)Looking to bounce back from a pair of decision losses, Maia has lost three of her last four fights and is just 2-4 in her last six matches. In fairness, her last four losses were all to top ranked fighters in Manon Fiorot, Katlyn Chookagian (x2), and Valentina Shevchenko. Maia has gone the distance in 12 of her last 13 matches, with the one exception being a 2020 round one submission victory over Joanne Wood.
In Maia’s last fight, she got lapped on the feet by Manon Fiorot and also got taken down twice in the second round. Maia also landed one of her four takedown attempts in the round, while the other two rounds remained standing. While Fiorot landed a ton of volume, the fight never looked close to being stopped. Fiorot finished ahead in significant strikes 83-37 and in total strikes 101-56 as Fiorot cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win.
Now 19-9-1 as a pro, Maia has four wins by KO, five by submission, and 10 decision victories. It’s been 10 years since anyone was able to finish Maia, with her lone KO loss coming in a 10 second 2012 R1 KO. She’s also been submitted once, which occurred just two fights prior to her KO loss. She’s had 21 fights since the 2012 KO without being finished. Her other seven losses have all ended in decisions. While nine of her 19 career wins have come early, with four KOs and five submissions, she only has one finish in her last 13 fights (2020 R1 SUB) and her second most recent early win was all the way back in 2015.
Overall, Maia has been very durable for the last decade, but her offense hasn’t been very impressive. Despite holding a BJJ black belt, Maia has only landed three total takedowns on just 10 attempts in her nine UFC fights. She’s also a Muay Thai black belt and appears mostly content with relying on her striking. While she seldomly lands many takedowns, Maia did show against Joanne Wood that she can use her Jiu-Jitsu to look for submissions off her back if she’s taken down by her opponent. Maia has been taken down 15 times on 34 attempts (55.9% defense) in her nine UFC fights, and has been taken down at least once in five straight fights.
Fight Prediction:
Moroz will have a 3” height and reach advantage, and is also three years younger than Maia.
Maia’s best attribute has been her durability, and has been a decision machine outside of a submission win over Joanne Wood, who’s been submitted five times in her career, including three times in her last five fights. While Maia’s a BJJ black belt, she only has a 55.9% takedown defense and has been taken down at least once in five straight fights. Since moving up to 125 lb, Moroz has landed five takedowns on 22 attempts in her last three fights, and also showed she knows how to stay out of danger from getting armbarred on the mat when she defeated a dangerous armbar specialist in Mayra Bueno Silva back in 2020. So we don’t expect Moroz to shy away from taking Maia down, although she should also be able to hang on the feet. It would be surprising to see Moroz find a finish, however, and we like her to grind out a decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Moroz DEC” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Moroz is coming off two impressive scoring performances, where she notched DraftKings totals of 108 and 111 in a pair of grappling-heavy wins. The first of those scores came in her recent second round submission victory, after she showed the ability to score well even in a decision just before that. However, prior to those two big scores she only scored 74, 37, and 61 points in her previous three decision wins, showing a wide range of potential scoring outcomes. Just keep in mind, the latter of those two scores came earlier in her career when she was still fighting down at 115 lb and she’s found more success since moving up to 125 lb for her last three fights. While Maia’s generally a tough opponent to score well against, as she’s extremely durable and hasn’t been finished in 21 straight fights, it is conceivable that Moroz can control her on the mat and put up a big DraftKings score even in a decision. It’s tougher for her to score well on FanDuel without a finish, and would require a high-volume brawl. Maia has been taken down in five straight fights, and we expect Moroz to find some success getting this fight to the ground. It’s still more likely than not that Moroz fails to return value at her expensive price tag, but despite her recent scoring bursts, she still projects to go low owned. That obviously adds to her tournament appeal. The odds imply she has a 62% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Maia looks like a submission or bust lottery ticket and has fought to decisions in 12 of her last 13 matches, with the one exception being a 2020 round one armbar submission win over Joanne Wood. Her second most recent submission win was all the way back in 2014, over four years before she joined the UFC. She’s also only landed two takedowns in eight UFC fights, and has only scored above 75 DraftKings points once in her career. Moroz has notably never been finished and has faced more dangerous grapplers than Maia in the past. Maia set a career high for significant strikes landed (98) against Jessica Eye in her last decision win, and still scored just 70 DraftKings points. We expect her to spend periods of time on her back in this fight, making it even tougher for her to serve as a value play without a finish. The odds imply she has a 38% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Charles Johnson
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a smothering decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev in his recent UFC debut, Johnson has at least shown the ability to survive against dangerous grapplers, as his second most recent loss was in an LFA decision to Brandon Royval. Following that loss, Johnson won four straight leading up to the loss in his debut, with his last three wins all coming in LFA Flyweight championship fights.
In Johnson’s last fight, Mokaev basically controlled the entire fight as he landed 12 takedowns on an insane 26 attempts and finished with nearly 12 minutes of control time. Significant strikes ended dead even at 12 a piece, while Johnson finished ahead in total strikes 71-32. Johnson never attempted any takedowns of his own in the match and Mokaev cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Johnson has five wins by KO, three by submission, and three decisions. He’s never been finished, with all three of his losses ending in decisions. His last six fights all made it out of the first round, with four seeing round three, and two making it to round five in LFA championship fights.
Overall, Johnson is an uptempo striker with decent defensive grappling, but not a ton in terms of offensive wrestling. While we’ve seen him get taken down without too much trouble at times, he does a good job of returning to his feet quickly. He doesn’t look especially dangerous and he tends to wear on his opponents, with five of his eight career finishes coming beyond the first round.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
6th UFC Fight (1-4)Continuing to find himself on the wrong end of decisions, Zhumagulov is coming off a split-decision loss to Jeff Molina and has now lost four of his five UFC fights, with three of those going the distance. He arguably won two of those three decisions, but the judges disagreed. Prior to his recent loss to Molina, Zhumagulov suffered his first early loss since 2015 in a R1 KO against Manel Kape. After fighting to seven straight decisions from 2017 to 2021, including four five rounders, Zhumagulov submitted a terrible Jerome Rivera in the first round leading up to his loss to Kape.
In his last fight, Zhumagulov attempted 13 takedowns, but was only able to land two of those, although he did finish with five and half minutes of control time as he pressed Molina up against the fence for periods of time. Molina finished ahead in significant strikes 56-37 and in total strikes 129-68, while Zhumagulov was more focussed on his wrestling in the fight.
Now 14-7 as a pro, Zhumagulov has seven wins by KO, one by submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has five decision losses. Eight of his last 10 fights have gone the distance.
Overall, Zhumagulov is an experienced grinder who isn’t exceptional at anything but is decently well rounded. He’ll mix in takedown attempts, but also has no problem keeping fights standing. We shouldn’t have to worry about his cardio late in fights, as four of his last five fights before joining the UFC were five-round decisions. He’s landed 5 takedowns in 27 attempts (18.5% accuracy) in his five UFC fights, and has twice notched double digit attempts, but has yet to land more than two takedowns in a fight.
Fight Prediction:
Johnson will have a 5” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, and is also three years younger than the 34-year-old Zhumagulov.
This fight seems destined to go the distance, as both of these two are durable grinders who lack immense power or elite submission skills. Both guys are coming off a loss and really need a win here, so we could see a more tentative approach potentially from one or both guys. Zhumagulov looks to wrestler more than Johnson, which will likely be his best path to victory, as Johnson is the longer fighter on the feet. While Johnson was just controlled for three rounds in his debut, his defensive wrestling isn’t all that bad, and we don’t expect Zhumagulov to be able to put on a dominant grappling performance, although there’s a decent chance he does land a couple of takedowns. We expect this to end in a close decision, which has been favorable for Zhumagulov in the past, with Johnson landing more strikes, but Zhumagulov landing more takedowns. We’ll say Johnson gets his hand raised with the judges, but this could definitely go either way.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -200.
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DFS Implications:
Johnson is an uptempo striker, but doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling and doesn’t have a ton of power in his striking, which lowers his scoring ceiling. While 8 of his 11 wins have come early, he generally wears on opponents as fights go on and Zhumagulov is well conditioned to go five rounds, let alone three. Zhumagulov has only been finished once in his last 14 fights and we’d be surprised if Johnson was able to put him away, which is likely what Johnson will need to do if he wants to return value at his expensive price tag. The odds imply he has a 60% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Zhumagulov lost a split-decision in his last fight, but still only would have scored 71 DraftKings points even if the decision had gone his way. While Zhumagulov has attempted large numbers of takedowns, he has just an 18% takedown accuracy and has never landed more than two in a fight. Working in his favor, we did just see Johnson get dominated on the mat for three rounds, but that came against a far superior grappler in Muhammad Mokaev, and we’d be shocked to see Zhumagulov realize similar results. With that said, it is encouraging for his chances of finding some grappling success, and at his cheap price tag it’s certainly possible for Zhumagulov to serve as a value play even without putting up a really big score. That’s probably all you can realistically ask for, as Johnson has never been finished in his career and Zhumagulov hasn’t looked very dangerous. The odds imply Zhumagulov has a 40% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Jack Della Maddalena
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Continuing to impress, Della Maddalena has won 12 straight fights, with 11 of those ending in the first two rounds. His most recent win came against a UFC veteran Russian wrestling decision machine in Ramazan Emeev and Della Maddalena handed him his first early loss in the UFC. Prior to that, Della Maddalena landed a first round knockout in his UFC debut against a debuting short notice replacement and one-dimensional striker in Pete Rodriguez after Warlley Alves dropped out. Della Maddalena looked great in the fight and it was a near flawless performance. Prior to joining the UFC, Della Maddalena was the five-time Eternal MMA Welterweight Champion in Australia and then he punched his ticket to the UFC with a decision win on DWCS in 2021.
In Della Maddalena’s last fight, while Emeev was able to land an early takedown, Della Maddalena returned to his feet after not very long. However, Emeev then appeared to have a choke locked up, but Della Maddalena was able to escape and return to space. Soon after, Della Maddalena shut Emeev down with a pair of heavy body shots, followed by some ground and pound for good measure as Emeed crumpled to the mat and the fight was stopped. It ended with Della Maddalena ahead 18-7 in striking, while Emeev landed one of his two takedown attempts.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Della Maddalena has won 12 straight fights since losing the first two bouts of his pro career. He has 10 wins by KO, one by submissions and one decision. He got knocked out in the third round of his 2016 pro debut, and was then submitted in the first round of his next fight, but hasn’t lost since that 2016 submission defeat. He’s only been to one decision in 14 pro fights, which came against a really tough Ange Loosa, who’s never been finished in his career, when Della Maddalena went on DWCS just before joining the UFC. Loosa shot for four takedowns in that match, but was only able to land one of them. Della Maddalena showed the ability to get up off his back and defend submissions when he did get taken down, but his most impressive attribute was clearly his boxing. Six of Della Maddalena’s 11 finishes have come in round one, with the other five ending in round two, and he’s only seen the third round twice in his career, and only once in his last 13 matches.
Overall, Della Maddalena relies mostly on his crisp boxing to win fights, but he is a BJJ brown belt and also has some Judo experience. He’s also a former rugby player and all around tough and durable fighter. He leads the slate in striking volume, averaging 8.24 SSL/min and does a good job of mixing in devastating body shots with his punching combinations.
Danny Roberts
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Coming off a decision loss to the ageless Francisco Trinaldo, Roberts stole a split decision from Ramazan Emeev just before that or else he would be just 1-4 in his last five fights. Prior to that close/sketchy decision win, Roberts hadn’t fought in nearly two years, after knocking out Zelim Imadaev in November 2019. Imadaev notably went 0-3 in the UFC before being released. Leading up to that win, Roberts got knocked out in the first round by Michel Pereira, after getting submitted in the third round by Claudio Silva. Roberts was also knocked out two more times earlier in his UFC career and has been finished in four of his five UFC losses.
In Roberts’ last fight, he got outpaced by a 43-year-old Francisco Trinaldo for three straight rounds on his way to a unanimous decision loss. Trinaldo had Roberts hurt early in round two and looked close to finishing him, but wasn’t quite able to put him away. Trinaldo had Roberts hurt again in round three, but again was unable to get him out of there and didn’t appear to have much urgency to do so. The fight ended with Trinaldo ahead 80-36 in significant strikes and 91-44 in total strikes. Trinaldo failed on his only takedown attempt, but did have one official submission attempt and over four minutes of control time. Roberts never looked for a takedown in the fight.
Now 18-6 as a pro, Roberts has eight wins by KO, five by submission, and five decisions. Five of his six career losses have come early, with three KOs and two submissions. His only decision loss occurred in his last fight, and was moments away from being finished at multiple points in the fight. He’s been knocked out in under two minutes twice in the UFC, submitted once in the third round, and has another third round KO loss.
Overall, Roberts started his MMA training with boxing, and is primarily a striker, but will sporadically shoot for takedowns, although he has just an 11% takedown accuracy and rarely lands any. He’s a decent striker but has a pretty low fight IQ and constantly finds ways to get finished. Originally from England, Roberts has been training out of Sanford MMA, but that doesn’t appear to have helped his durability or defenses any. He only averages 3.13 SSL/min and 3.32 SSA/min, so while we often see finishes in his fights, we rarely see a ton of striking volume.
Fight Prediction:
Roberts will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. Della Maddalena is nine years younger than the 35-year-old Roberts.
The UFC is setting up a highlight reel finish for Della Maddalena here as Roberts has durability issues, a low fight IQ, and has only landed two takedowns in 12 UFC appearances. Della Maddalena is far more dangerous and more durable than Roberts and we don’t expect this fight to last long, as Della Maddalena should knock Roberts out in the first round, and we’d be shocked to see the fight make it past round two. Give us Della Maddalena by R1 KO.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -125.
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DFS Implications:
Della Maddalena has finished both of his UFC opponents in under three minutes and now faces a fragile Danny Roberts who has been finished in four of his five UFC losses. Della Maddalena scored 107 and 117 DraftKings points in his first two UFC wins and this sets up as another smash spot for him. Unfortunately the field is also fully aware of this and Della Maddalena projects to be the highest owned fighter on the slate. He’s also the most expensive, which at least creates some potential for him to get priced out of the winning lineup, but that may require a standing stoppage or some other flukey finish where Della Maddalena fails to notch a knockdown. With that said, Della Maddalena has the highest floor/ceiling combination of any fighter on the slate and we fully expect him to put up another big score here and end up in winning lineups in all formats and contest types. The odds imply he has an 81% chance to win, a 61% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Roberts is walking into his own funeral here, but for what it’s worth, four of his seven UFC wins have come early and he has shown some upside at times in the past. Just keep in mind, the combined UFC record of the four opponents he finished is a putrid 1-8, and Roberts has never finished anybody decent in the UFC. Roberts has serious durability issues and will now be facing a dangerous finisher who has won 12 straight fights, with 11 finishes in the first two rounds. While Roberts will be the best leverage play on the slate if he somehow wins, it will take a near miracle for him to pull off the upset. We fully expect Roberts to get knocked out in the opening minutes of this fight and put up a single digit DraftKings score, so play him at your own peril. The odds imply he has a 19% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Muslim Salikhov
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Salikhov is now 38 years old and coming off the first knockout loss of his career, but had won five straight fights leading up to that defeat. His only other UFC loss was a second round submission in his 2017 debut, and Salikhov has won 16 of his last 18 matches. His first two UFC victories both ended in knockouts, but his last three wins all went the distance.
In his last fight, we saw a slower paced striking battle with Salikhov looking for his typical spinning kicks early on. Salikhov was able to land a takedown midway through the first round, but wasn’t able to get much done with it. Jingliang was able to land a takedown of his own in the second round as Salikhov began to slow down. After not a lot happened in the first nine minutes, Jingliang caught Salikhov with a big right hand in the final minute of round two that immediately had Salikhov looking to grapple. Jingliang did a good job of defending the takedown attempts and dropped Salikhov with another big right hand and then quickly forced a stoppage with 22 second left in round two as he finished him with elbows on the mat. The fight ended with Jingliang ahead 38-23 in significant strikes and 40-33 in total strikes with takedowns dead even at one apiece.
Now 18-3 as a pro, Salikhov has 12 wins by KO, two by submission, and four decisions. Thirteen of his 14 finishes have occurred in the first round, with the other ending in round two. All of his career losses have also come early, with two submissions and one knockout. Both of his early losses in the UFC have come in the back half of round two.
Overall, Salikhov’s most dangerous weapon is his lightning fast spinning kick. He doesn’t throw much volume, averaging just 3.04 SSL/min, but when he does land he makes it count. He’s never landed more than 63 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorbed more than 46. He doesn’t offer a ton in terms of grappling, with just six takedowns landed on 17 attempts (35.3% accuracy) in seven UFC fights. However, those all notably occurred in his last four outings, and he’s shown a willingness to mix in takedown attempts. Salikhov is the most dangerous in round one and tends to slow down later in fights. Following the KO loss in his last fight, Salikhov said he switched camps and is now training at American Top Team. He also mentioned that he thinks that’s the best gym to improve your wrestling, but he would still prefer to keep this a striking battle.
Andre Fialho
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Fighting for the fifth time this year, Fialho only made his UFC debut in January of this year, where he lost a hardfought decision to Michel Pereira after taking the fight on short notice. Fialho rebounded from the loss with a pair of first round knockouts against Miguel Baeza and Cameron VanCamp, spaced three weeks apart in April and May. Continuing to book fights at a breakneck pace, he then fought Jake Matthews just five weeks after that, but ended up getting knocked out in the second round in what was his third fight in eight weeks.
In his last fight, Fialho pressured forward early, but didn’t land many strikes. We saw a slow start to the first round, before the round ended with a flurry of strikes from both guys. Matthews landed a huge left hand early in round two that had Fialho backing up, and Matthews began applying pressure as he pushed Fialho back against the cage and continued to land clean shots. Midway through the round, Matthews crumpled Fialho along the fence with a flurry of punches and the fight was stopped. Matthews finished ahead 47-18 in significant strikes and 47-19 in total strikes, while neither fighter attempted a takedown.
Now 16-5 as a pro, Fialho has 13 wins by KO, one by submission, and two decision victories. Fialho’s last six wins have all come by KO in a round and a half or less, with the last five ending in round one. He’s been knocked out three times and has two decision losses, with all five of his career losses coming against fighters who are currently or were previously in the UFC. Overall, 12 of his 14 finishes have come in round one, with the other two ending in the first half of round two. He’s lost his last three fights that have lasted longer than a round and a half.
Overall, Fialho is essentially a one-dimensional boxer, but at just 28 years old he still has time to round out his skillset. He’s got good hands, but he can be a little heavy on his lead leg and has looked prone to getting that lead leg chewed up. He’s most dangerous in the opening five minutes and has been prone to fading down the stretch at times. He has a background in boxing and trains out of Sanford MMA. He’s a BJJ purple belt, and he’s not much of a submission threat with just one win by submission on his record. He doesn’t throw a ton of volume, averaging just 3.78 SSL/min, but absorbs significantly more at 6.65 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate). His forward pressure, heavy hands, dubious striking defense, and suspect chin typically result in his fights ending in knockouts, whether it’s for him or his opponent. His last three and seven of his last eight matches have all ended with someone getting knocked out in a round and a half or less. Fialho’s last three opponents have not tried to take him down, after Michel Pereira landed one of his four takedown attempts in Fialho’s UFC debut.
Fight Prediction:
Fialho will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. He’s also 10 years younger than Salikhov.
Both of these two are slower paced strikers who focus more on landing impactful shots than a high amount of volume. Salikhov is most dangerous with his spinning kicks, while Fialho is primarily a boxer. We expect Fialho to try and close the distance to keep the fight in boxing range, while Salikhov would prefer to keep things at distance where he can land kicks. Salikhov will also look to mix in takedowns, which would be a wise move against a one-dimensional striker like Fialho. The only problem with that approach, is that Salikhov isn’t especially dangerous on the mat and also has a questionable gas tank. So he’s unlikely to find a finish on the ground and will just drain his own gas tank even faster if he exerts a ton of energy wrestling. However, it would also take away the danger coming back his way from Fialho, so it will be interesting to see what his approach is. Both of these two are the most dangerous in round one, so if the fight lasts longer than five minutes we could see them both begin to slow down, and they each become less dangerous as fights go on. Considering they’re both coming off KO losses, it’s also possible we see a more tentative approach out of each guy, adding some uncertainty here.
Fialho absorbs more damage and has been the more prone of the two to getting knocked, but Salikhov is coming off the first KO loss of his career and is now 38 years old, so it’s hard to know where he’s at right now and whether or not he’s finally hit a cliff in his career. We could see either guy knocking out the other, either from a Salikhov spinning kick or a Fialho boxing combination, and as the odds suggest this appears close to a coinflip. If it does go the distance, Salikhov’s grappling could be the difference maker in a decision if the striking is close, but there’s still a good chance someone gets knocked out early. We don’t have a hard take here on who wins, and we generally hate taking aging fighters coming off early losses, but Fialho is so reliant on landing an early knockout that we lean Salikhov here as he’s also live for an early finish, and is the more likely of the two to get his hand raised if this goes the distance. However, we could have gone either way on this one and can see arguments for both guys.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in R1 KO” at +250.
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DFS Implications:
Salikhov’s low-volume striking and questionable cardio generally leaves him reliant on landing a first round knockout to really score well, and his one second round finish in the UFC scored just 91 DraftKings points. He’s only averaged 66 DraftKings points in his three decision wins, although he has begun to mix in more takedown attempts in recent fights, giving him at least a sliver of hope to score better here in a decision win than he has in the past. With that said, he tends to slow down after the first round and a dominant grappling performance would be surprising. He’ll still likely need either a first round knockout or a later second round finish with multiple knockdowns to score well. Of concern, he’s now 38 years old and is coming off the first KO loss of his career. He also just switched gyms, which adds some uncertainty to the mix. Working in his favor, Fialho has been very hittable, averaging 6.65 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate) and has been knocked out three times in his career, including in his last fight. If Salikhov can land something clean, he’s definitely capable of finding an early finish and he throws dangerous spinning kicks. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fialho is a one-dimensional power puncher who has landed finishes in 14 of his 16 career wins, including a pair of first round knockouts in his two UFC wins. Twelve of his 14 finishes have come in round one, with the other two ending in the first half of round two, and he’s just 2-2 in four career decisions. That leaves him reliant on landing an early knockout to score well and he finished with just 20 DraftKings points in a decision loss in his UFC debut. While Salikhov has only been knocked out once in his career, that came in his last fight and it’s possible he’s finally hitting a cliff at 38 years old. The line has moved in Fialho’s favor, moving him from a slight dog to a slight favorite, which means he’s underpriced on DraftKings. That should drive his ownership up, and he was already 31% and 39% owned in his last two fights, so expect him to be popular once again. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Just three weeks removed from a decision win in his UFC debut against Jared Vanderaa, Cortes-Acosta is stepping right back inside the Octagon. Chase Sherman was left searching for a new opponent after Josh Parisian dropped out the day of their scheduled fight two weeks ago, and apparently Cortes-Acosta was happy to step in. Prior to the win in his debut, Cortes-Acosta had knocked out three straight opponents, including a R1 TKO win on DWCS after he won the vacant LFA HeavyWeight belt just before that with a third round TKO. Cortes-Acosta is a former minor league baseball player, but was cut following a fight and embraced the result as he opted to become a professional fighter. While he turned pro in MMA in 2018, he was more focussed on boxing around that time, and went 4-3 in boxing matches from 2018 to 2021, before really focussing on his MMA career in the Summer of 2021. He’s now won seven straight fights over the last 16 months.
In his last fight, Cortes-Acosta got his legs chewed up in the first round and looked clueless when it came to defending calf kicks. While he showed good hand speed and was swinging with bad intentions, he struggled with his accuracy as he threw big looping right hands. Vanderaa foolishly didn’t even try to engage in the clinch until midway through the second round, and then failed to land his only takedown attempt in the fight. Cortes-Acosta straightened out his striking as the fight went on, but continued to eat calf kicks, as Vanderaa landed 39 leg kicks in the fight. Cortes-Acosta finished ahead in significant strikes 73-56 and in total strikes 73-59 in the pure striking battle.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Cortes-Acosta has four wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and three decisions. Despite five of his eight wins ending early, six of his eight fights have made it to the second round. His only first round finish in his last six fights came on DWCS this past August, which is the only first round knockout of his career. However, his lone submission win also occurred in the first round, which ended in a kimura in his second pro fight.. This will be Cortes-Acosta’s third time fighting in the last three months and fifth time fighting this year. Considering he just got his legs chewed up for 15 minutes three weeks ago, you have to wonder if that level of activity will begin to catch up with him soon.
Overall, Cortes-Acosta is a one-dimensional striker whose background is in baseball, not martial arts. He then transitioned to boxing before really going all in on MMA over the last 15 months. While he has one submission win on his record, he really doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling and has really struggled with getting taken down and controlled. He was losing his second most recent fight on the mat before his opponent gassed out and Cortes-Acosta finished him late in round three. Cortes-Acosta also has a really poor striking defense and simply looks to load up on punches and finish his opponents with punches before they can finish him. He’s yet to face any real competition and we don’t expect his undefeated record to stay intact very long at the UFC level.
Chase Sherman
14th UFC Fight (3-9)Sherman had been scheduled to fight Josh Parisian two weeks ago but Parisian pulled out the day of the fight. Prior to that, Sherman notched his only win in his last five fights, when he knocked out Jared Vanderaa in the third round. In his four losses leading up to that win, Sherman was submitted in the first round of his previous two matches, after losing a pair of decisions just before that. Sherman was actually cut for the second time by the UFC following a submission loss to Jake Collier earlier this year, but they brought him back on when they needed a short notice sacrifice for Alexander Romanov, who submitted Sherman in just 131 seconds. In his first stint with the UFC, Sherman went 2-5 from 2016 to 2018 and was cut in September 2018 following his third straight loss. He then landed three straight first round knockouts outside of the UFC and was brought back in 2020. He defeated an undersized Ike Villanueva in his return, but was then popped for PEDs and suspended for nine months. He lost four straight after returning from suspension, before getting his first win since May 2020 in his last fight.
In Sherman’s last fight, Vanderaa weirdly opted not to shoot for a single takedown, despite being a BJJ “black belt” and going against an opponent in Sherman who has proven he’s completely helpless off his back. Sherman took an early striking lead in the fight, outlanding Vanderaa 46-29 in round one. Vanderaa had a better second round and narrowed the striking gap, but Sherman’s cardio held up better than it had in previous fights and midway through the third round Sherman connected with a long combination of punches that had Vanderaa nearly out on the feet and forced to cover up along the cage as the fight was stopped. Sherman finished ahead 137-109 in striking, with no takedowns attempted in the fight and zero seconds of control time between them.
Now 16-10 as a pro, Sherman has 15 wins by KO and one by decision (2017). He’s been knocked out four times, submitted twice, and has four decision losses. Sixteen of his 26 fights have ended in the first round (12-4), three ended in round two (2-1), two ended in round three (1-1), and five have gone the distance (1-4). While Sherman was able to find some success outside of the UFC in 2018 and 2019, he’s gone just 2-7 in his last nine UFC fights.
Overall, Sherman is a low-level Heavyweight and a one-dimensional striker. He’s historically faded after the first round, but is coming off the first third round finish of his career and was able to avoid gassing out in his last match, so maybe something’s changed. The only success he’s found in his career is knocking out super low-level opponents, and 13 of his 15 career KO wins have come outside of the UFC. He’s only finished 3 of his 13 UFC opponents: Jared Vanderaa, who went 1-6 in the UFC, Isaac Villanueva, who’s a Light Heavyweight that went 1-5 in the UFC, and Rashad Coulter, who went 1-3 in the UFC. Sherman averages an identical 6.51 SSL/min and SSA/min, as he’s generally involved in high-volume brawls. Sherman has never even attempted a takedown in the UFC, let alone land one, while his opponents have taken him down 7 times on 21 attempts (66.7% accuracy). He’s looked terrible on the mat and is 0-5 in UFC fights when he’s been taken down. He was quickly finished on the ground in three of the last four matches where he got taken down.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’4” with a 78” reach.
This sets up as an uptempo striking battle and neither guy offers anything on the mat. Cortes-Acosta looked very vulnerable to getting his lead leg attacked in his last fight, and in Sherman’s last three fights to make it out of the first round he landed 19, 33, and 17 leg strikes. So it would make sense for Sherman to mix in a healthy amount of leg strikes and with just three weeks to recover from his last match, Cortes-Acosta could still be a little sore even coming in. Cortes-Acosta loves to throw huge looping right hands, and while doesn’t connect on many, if he does, he has the power to put Sherman down. Although to Sherman’s credit, he hasn’t been knocked out since 2018, after getting knocked out four times earlier in his career. Sherman has made it to the third round in his last three fights where he didn’t get submitted in the first round, but has notably lost the last three decisions he’s been to, with his last decision win coming all the way back in 2017. On the flipside, Cortes-Acosta has never lost a fight and has won all three of his trips to the judges. Sherman has been very hittable throughout his career, averaging 6.51 SSA/min, but also lands a ton of volume himself, coincidentally averaging 6.51 SSL/min as well. While both guys are capable of finishing the other, we kind of like this to end in a close decision and we’ll say Cortes-Acosta gets his hand raised again.
Our favorite bet here is “Over 1.5 Rounds” at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Cortes-Acosta is a one-dimensional striker with no grappling skills and relies on landing knockouts to score well. He made his UFC debut just three weeks ago and scored just 59 DraftKings points in a decision win, and will now be jumping right back into the Octagon. He got his legs chewed up in that fight, which is especially concerning given the very quick turnaround, so that will be something to monitor as the fight goes on. While Sherman was submitted in the first round of his last two losses, he hasn’t been knocked out since 2018. We expect to see enough striking volume in this fight that even a late knockout will likely score well, but we don’t expect the volume to be enough for Cortes-Acosta to return value at his high price tag without a finish. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Sherman is a low-level Heavyweight who relies on landing knockouts to win fights and has gone just 1-4 in his five career decisions. In his lone decision win, he scored just 75 DraftKings points, while he has averaged 111 points in his three UFC knockout victories. All three of those finishes occurred in the later rounds, and he’s shown the ability to score well even with late round finishes backed by his striking volume, but has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. He’s lost four of his last five fights and is 0-5 in fights where he’s been taken down even once. Luckily for him, he’s going against another pure striker here and we expect these two to duke it out on the feet until either someone goes down or they run out of time. Cortes-Acosta has never lost a fight, let alone gotten knocked out, but he’s still very young in his career so his chin is largely untested. Sherman’s cheap price tag keeps him in the value dog discussion even in a decision win, but that would likely require only a few dogs winning on the slate for him to be useful in tournaments. To really score well he’ll need to knock Cortes-Acosta out. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Kennedy Nzechukwu
8th UFC Fight (4-3)After losing two straight, Nzechukwu bounced back with a dominant third round TKO win over Karl Roberson in his last fight. Prior to the win, Nzechukwu lost a close split-decision to Nicolae Negumereanu after getting knocked out for the first time by Da Un Jung in the first round of his previous fight.
In his last fight, Nzechukwu showed improved grappling and after failing to land any takedowns in his first six UFC fights or his two DWCS appearances, he landed five on seven attempts against Roberson. Nzechukwu controlled Roberson for essentially the entire fight, as he finished with 10:46 in control time in a fight that lasted just over 12 minutes. He finished ahead in significant strikes 20-9 and in total strikes 64-16 and also looked for submissions at multiple points, before eventually finishing Roberson with ground and pound midway through round three.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Nzechukwu has seven wins by KO and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has one decision loss. Three of his seven KO wins occurred in the second round, two ended in round one, and two ended in round three. All of his knockout victories in the UFC occurred in the later rounds and that appears to be when he’s the most dangerous after he’s worn his opponents’ hands down with his face. Six of his seven UFC fights have seen the second round, with five going to round three, and two ending in decisions. Nzechukwu is huge for the division and actually made his pro debut at Heavyweight in 2016 before dropping down to Light Heavyweight in 2017.
Overall, Nzechukwu is a big, durable fighter, he’s still pretty raw and often overly cautious. He struggles to let his hands go early in fights and is consistently a slow starter. He’s not super explosive with his striking, but he’s so powerful that it doesn’t matter. He’s huge for the division at 6’5” with an 83” reach and has a solid 81% takedown defense and the ability to simply get up when he does get taken down. He showed some grappling for the first time in his last fight, so he’s clearly still expanding his game, but now he’ll get a much tougher test than his last one.
Ion Cutelaba
14th UFC Fight (5-7-1)Just 1-4-1 in last six fights, Cutelaba has really struggled to find wins lately. He was embarrassingly submitted in the first round by power puncher Johnny Walker in her last fight, after also getting submitted in the first round just before that by Ryan Spann. Cutelaba hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2017-2018. His only win in his last six matches came in a wrestling-heavy decision over Devin Clark in 2021, after Cutelaba fought to a split draw against Dustin Jacoby where Cutelaba landed eight takedowns in the first round. Cutelaba’s second most recent win was all the way back in 2019 against Khalil Rountree.
In his last fight, Cutelaba landed a takedown in the opening 30 seconds after catching a kick, but after two minutes in top control he tried for an unsuccessful armbar and had his position reversed. Cutelaba was able to return to his feet, but Walker held onto his back and returned him to the mat. Walker then immediately looked for a rear-naked choke and eventually was able to complete it late in the round. The fight ended with both fighters landing three significant strikes, 17 total strikes, one takedown, and two minutes of control time, in a bizarrely symmetrical statsheet. Now 16-8-1 as a pro, Cutelaba has 12 wins by KO, two submissions (both by Omoplata early in his career), and two decision victories. Thirteen of his 14 finishes have occurred in round one, with the one exception being a 2013 TKO that occurred 29 seconds into round two in what was his fourth pro fight. He’s been knocked out twice (both times by Magomed Ankalaev), submitted four times, has one decision defeat, and one DQ loss. Cutelaba has always been a fast starter and 19 of his 26 pro fights have ended in the first round (13-5, NC).
Overall, Cutelaba is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but tends to slow down later on in fights. He has a background in Greco-Roman Wrestling, Sambo and Judo, but oftentimes is content with duking it out on the feet. His takedowns have come in clusters in his career, with 31 landed on 47 attempts in six of his UFC fights, but zero landed on just two attempts in his other seven matches. That can partially be attributed to the fact that four of those seven fights ended in the first round, while another ended in round two. He’s landed a combined 21 takedowns on 35 attempts in his last four fights. While Cutelaba is extremely dangerous, he’s only landed one finish in his career beyond the first round. And since joining the UFC, he’s just 2-3-1 in fights that have made it past round one. With that said, he’s still only lost one decision in his career, although he’s only been to four (2-1-1).
Fight Prediction:
Nzechukwu will have a 4” height advantage and 8” reach advantage.
Cutelaba always makes for exciting fights, even if he can be extremely frustrating to bet on. He has all of the physical tools required to be successful, but puts himself in bad situations at times and has been prone to getting submitted. Working in his favor in this matchup, Nzechukwu has never submitted anybody. While Cutelaba is a fast starter, Nzechukwu has historically been a slow starter. So we expect Cutelaba to come out and take an early lead, likely looking to wrestler. Nzechukwu has a solid 81% takedown defense and is a massive human, so it will be interesting to see how much success Cutelaba can have in getting him down. Even if he is able to get Nzechukwu down early, he may gas himself out with the amount of work it will require. That will likely result in him slowing down in the later rounds, and if he can’t find a first round finish, he’s unlikely to find one later in the fight. If he really gasses out, we could see Nzechukwu land another late round knockout, but we like Cutelaba to do enough in the first two rounds to get his hand raised in a decision victory against the durable Nzechukwu.
Our favorite bet here is “Cutelaba DEC” at +850.
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DFS Implications:
Nzechukwu is coming off an impressive performance, where he finally grappled for the first time in the UFC and landed five takedowns after failing to land a takedown in any of his previous fights. He capped the performance with a third round knockout that scored 106 DraftKings points, after his last third round KO win scored just 57. Nzechukwu also has a decision win on his UFC record where he scored just 50 points, and up until his last fight he had appeared dependent on landing a finish in the first two rounds to score well in DFS. The only other time he’s topped 57 DraftKings points was in a second round knockout over Carlos Ulber, where Nzechukwu scored 113 points. His recent grappling performance came against an undersized kickboxer in Karl Roberson, and we’d be surprised if Nzechukwu put on a repeat performance here against a powerful wrestler in Cutelaba. With that said, if Nzechukwu at least mixes in a little grappling, then it’s possible he can continue to score better with later finishes than he had earlier in his career. Cutelaba has been prone to getting finished and slowing down later in fights, so if Nzechukwu can survive the first round, it’s possible he finds another late finish. His high price tag does make it tougher on him, and it’s very possible he lands a late finish and still doesn’t score enough to crack winning lineups, especially if he gets controlled early in the fight. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Cutelaba has struggled to win many fights lately, with just one victory in his last six matches. However, despite his struggles, he has averaged 110 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with scores of 107 or more in his last four, and 119 or more in three of those. He offers massive wrestling upside and a history of landing first round knockouts. His wrestling allows him to put up huge scores even in decisions, and he scored 127 DraftKings points and 118 FanDuel points in his last decision win. While this doesn’t look like an easy matchup for him as he faces the 81% takedown defense of a very durable Nzechukwu, Cutelaba is always a guy you have to consider, because when he does win he typically does so in spectacular fashion with slate-breaking scoring potential. The one downside with him is that the field is fully aware of his scoring abilities and he’s typically highly owned, with his ownership checking in at 35% and 47% the last two times he fought. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Serghei Spivac
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Fresh off his second straight TKO win, Spivac has won five of his last six fights, with four of his last five fights ending in TKOS in the first two rounds. His only loss since February 2020 came in a 2021 R1 TKO against Tom Aspinall, in a fight that Spivac accepted on short notice. Spivac’s last five wins have come against Augusto Sakai 9four straight KO losses), Greg Hardy (cut), Alexey Oleynik (65 years old and has lost 4 of last 5), Jared Vanderaa (cut), and Carlos Felipe (cut). The only notable win on his UFC record was against one-dimensional striker Tai Tuivasa back in 2019, and even then Tuivasa was in the midst of a three fight losing streak. So while Spivac has put on dominant performances in the UFC, we’ve yet to see him really notch any signature wins against top opponents. In addition to getting knocked out by Aspinall in the first round, Spivac got knocked out just 50 seconds into his UFC debut by Walt Harris back in 2019. Spivac’s only other loss came in a 2020 decision against a fellow Heavyweight wrestler in Marcin Tybura.
In his last fight, Spivac was able to land his first takedown attempt 15 seconds into the fight. While Sakai was able to quickly return to his feet, Spivac took him right back to the mat. Sakai continued to slowly work his way back to his feet, but Spivac never stopped beating him up and grinding on him as he dragged him back to the mat one time after the next. The damage continued to mount and midway through the second round Spivac was able to force a stoppage through ground and pound in a fight that was essentially a shutout. Spivac finished ahead in significant strikes 33-8 and in total strikes 86-14. He landed six of his eight takedown attempts with six and a half minutes of control time.
Now 15-3 as a pro, Spivac has seven wins by KO, six by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has one decision loss. Prior to joining the UFC, he landed nine straight finishes in the first two rounds, with eight ending in round one. Since joining the UFC, he’s had three fights end in first round TKOs (1-2), three end in second round wins (two by TKO & one by submission), and three go the distance (2-1).
This will be the 4th five-round fight of Spivac’s career, but first in the UFC. His previous three fights scheduled to go five-rounds all ended in first round wins just before Spivac joined the UFC, so he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes.
Overall, Spivac is a rare Heavyweight grappler, and does his best work from top position on the mat. He’s not a great striker on the feet and relies on getting fights to the ground to win. He’s just 1-3 in UFC fights where he’s failed to land a takedown, but 5-0 with when he’s landed at least one. The only time he’s won a fight without landing a takedown was when he defeated fellow Heavyweight grappler Alexey Oleynik in a decision. In his nine UFC fights, Spivac has landed 21 takedowns on 33 attempts (63.6% accuracy), with three or more takedowns landed in five of his six wins.
Derrick Lewis
26th UFC Fight (17-8)Looking to bounce back from a pair of KO losses, Lewis has been knocked out in three of his last four fights and his last six matches have all ended with someone getting KO’d (3-3). Now 37 years old, Lewis certainly isn’t getting any younger and he didn’t look great in his last two fights against Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa, after knocking out an undersized Heavyweight in Chris Daukaus just before that. That R1 KO win over Daukaus is Lewis’ only first round win in his last 17 fights, dating back to 2016. Over that 17 fight stretch, Lewis has gone 11-6 with one R1 KO win, three in R2, two in R3, one R4, and four three-round decision victories. His only other loss in his last eight fights was against Ciryl Gane, and Lewis had won four in a row prior to that loss.
In his last fight, Lewis got backed up by Sergei Pavlovich, who blitzed Lewis with a combination of punches that spilled him to the mat in the opening minute. As soon as Lewis went down the fight was stopped, despite Lewis trying to return to his feet immediately. It definitely looked like a quick stoppage, although the way Lewis went down didn’t look good and he arguably would have just continued to take damage and lose the fight anyways. The fight lasted just 55 seconds and finished with Pavlovich ahead 15-4 in striking.
Now 26-10 as a pro, Lewis has 21 wins by KO, one by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out seven times, has one submission loss, and two decision defeats. His last three wins have all come by KO in under seven with two ending in the opening 90 seconds of round two and the other coming in the final 90 seconds of round one. His last eight losses have all come early (R1 KO>R2 KO>R3 KO>R2 KO>R2 SUB>R4 KO>R2 KO>R1 KO), and the last time he lost a decision was 2011. While two of his last three fights ended in the first round, he’s still seen the second round in 15 of his last 17 matches. In his 36 pro fights, Lewis has only been knocked out in the first round twice—in his last match and all the way back in 2014, in what was just his 3rd UFC fight. Lewis’ last three losses have all come on Texas PPV cards, fighting in front of his home crowd, while his last three wins have all occurred at the Apex in Las Vegas, where this next fight will also be.
This will be Lewis’ 13th five round fight of his career (10th in the UFC), and he has never been past the fourth round. The first three five-round fights of his career came prior to joining the UFC. The first was in 2012 and ended in a No Contest just 48 seconds in for “Illegal Strikes.” His next was later in 2012 and ended in a second round KO win in a Legacy FC Heavyweight Championship fight, immediately followed by a third round KO win in a 2013 Legacy FC Heavyweight Championship defense. His first five-round fight in the UFC was in 2016 and ended in a fourth round KO win, immediately followed by a second round knockout victory in 2017 and then a fourth round KO loss against Mark Hunt in 2017. Lewis’ next five-round fight was for the belt against Daniel Cormier in 2018 and Cormier submitted Lewis in the second round, which remains the only time Lewis has been submitted in his career. Lewis was then finished again in another five-round match as he was knocked out by Junior dos Santos in the second round of his next fight. Lewis bounced back with a pair of three-round decision wins, before landing back-to-back second round knockouts in fights scheduled to go five-rounds against Alexey Oleynik and Curtis Blaydes. He then got knocked out in the third round of his next five rounder by Ciryl Gane, before knocking out Daukaus in the first round of his last main event, back in December 2021. To sum that up, Lewis is 7-4 plus a No Contest in his 12 career five-round fights. All 12 of those fights ended early, and ignoring the No Contest, all but one of them made it out of the first round. Six ended in round two (4-2), with two ending in round three (1-1), and two more in round four (1-1). Four of Lewis’ last six fights scheduled to go five rounds have ended in the second round.
Overall, Lewis is a low-volume power puncher, who averages just 2.57 SSL/min and he hasn’t landed more than 39 significant strikes in any of his last 13 fights. He’ll often look to mix in a takedown or two to keep opponents guessing. He’s pretty agile for his size and will also throw head kicks. His gas tank is limited so we often see him conserve it early on and/or wear down midway through fights. He has a 55% career takedown defense and he’s been taken down 11 times on 22 attempts in his last 10 fights (50% defense). Lewis’ last three opponents didn’t attempt to take him down, after the two before that failed to complete any of their combined four attempts. The last fighter to get Lewis down was Aleksei Oleinik in August 2020, who landed his only attempt in the fight before Lewis knocked him out in round two. Prior to that, Ilir Latifi, Blagoy Ivanov, and Daniel Cormier all took Lewis down three or more times. Lewis has actually fared pretty well against grapplers not named Cormier in his career, with wins over Curtis Blaydes, Alexey Oleynik, Ilir Latifi, Blagoy Ivanov, and Marcin Tybura over the last four years.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Lewis will have a 1” reach advantage. Spivac is 10 years younger than the 37-year-old Lewis.
This sets up as a wrestler versus striker battle and will likely come down to what holds up longer—Spivac’s chin or Lewis’ takedown defense. We’ve seen Spivac get knocked out in the first round in two of his three UFC losses, while Lewis hasn’t lost a fight where he’s been taken down since 2018, when he got submitted by Daniel Cormier. Lewis has been taken down seven times since that loss, but went on to win the last three fights where he gave up a takedown. However, that’s not really a trend we want to rely on here and Lewis will likely be in trouble if he finds himself on his back, as Spivac offers violent ground and pound and also the ability to submit opponents. Lewis’ massive size makes it tougher to simply overpower him in the grappling exchanges, but we expect Spivac to be looking for trips to strategically get this to the mat. You definitely don’t want to hang out in punching range with Lewis, so Spivac will need to be all the way in or all the way out as he looks to close the distance. The unknown factor in play here is trying to gauge the rate of Lewis’ recent decline, but for what it’s worth he’s never lost three fights in a row before in his career. If he can keep the fight standing, we like his chances of landing an early knockout, but if Spivac can consistently get the fight to the ground, look for him to eventually finish it with ground and pound, most likely in round two. While we could see it going either way based on where the fight takes place, we’d be utterly shocked if the fight made it past the fourth round. We’ll officially take Spivac by ground and pound TKO, but won’t be at all shocked if Lewis knocks him out in the first round and a half.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at -190.
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DFS Implications:
Spivac is coming off a career best performance, where he scored 136 points on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s averaged 113 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with five scores of 101 or more, while he’s been knocked out in the first round in two of his three UFC losses. So he’s typically a guy whose fights we’re looking to target as the winner almost always scores well. However, he’s facing Derrick Lewis here, who’s the exact opposite and generally makes for lower volume fights where the winner is dependent on landing a first round finish to score well. That creates somewhat of a paradox here, although the fact that Spivac will be looking to grapple and likely gets knocked out if he fails to get the fight to the ground keeps both guys in play. While Lewis has just a 55% takedown defense, he hasn’t been taken down in any of his last five fights, albeit on just four attempts, with none from his last three opponents. Lewis is a massive Heavyweight, who consistently checks in right around the 265 lb limit, while Spivac has weighed in anywhere from 238 to 249 lb in his last three fights. That could make it tougher for Spivac to wrestle Lewis to the mat and/or easily control him on the ground. Spivac’s ability to win fights has been directly tied to his ability to get them to the mat, as he’s 5-0 in UFC fights where he’s landed a takedown, but just 1-3 when he hasn’t. That creates a clear path for how he fails here, if Lewis can keep the fight standing. If that does happen, there’s a good chance Spivac gets knocked out, leaving him with an unreliable floor but a solid ceiling. The other way he fails is if we see a slower start with a prolonged feeling out process, with Spivac respecting the KO power of Lewis, and Lewis weary of getting taken down. If nothing much happens in the first round, Spivac could find an efficient finish in rounds two or three and still fail to return value at his high price tag. That makes this somewhat of a tricky spot with a wide range of potential outcomes. With that said, he generally racks up enough ground and pound to still score well with later round finishes, making it tougher for him to completely bust unless he gets knocked out. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Lewis has been knocked out twice in a row and in three of his last four fights and is now 37 years old. That makes it tougher to trust him to really show up here, but he still unquestionably has knockout power and is facing an opponent who’s been knocked out in the first round in two of his three losses. This is a similar situation to when Lewis fought Curtis Blaydes back in 2021. We saw a slow start to that fight and then Lewis knocked Blaydes out early in round two but only scored 83 DraftKings points and still got left out of the winning lineup despite being the cheapest fighter on the DraftKings slate at only $6,800. However, just before that Lewis faced another grappler in Alexey Oleynik, and that time scored 109 DraftKings points in another second round knockout, showing that it’s not impossible for him to score well beyond the first round, it’s just unlikely. Lewis’ lack of striking volume (2.57 SSL/min) more often than not results in lower scores when he lands mid-round finishes and he’s still only averaging 92 DraftKings points in his last five early wins, with three of those failing to top 86 points. While there’s a chance he scores well with a second round finish, even at his cheap price tag he more likely needs a first round knockout to be useful unless only a few dogs on the slate win, which is always possible. With that in mind, Lewis has only landed one first round knockout in his last 17 fights dating back to 2016. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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