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Fight Day Scratches: Kim/Bohm Fight is OFF!
Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Tatsuro Taira
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming off a second round submission win, Taira remains perfect in his career and has submitted four of his last five opponents. Prior to his recent submission win, Taira won a grappling-heavy decision in his UFC debut against another debuting fighter in Carlos Candelario. Before joining the UFC, Taira won all 10 of his career fights on the Japanese regional scene after turning pro when he was just 18 years old.
In his last fight, Taira landed his first takedown attempt less than a minute into the fight. After spending a couple minutes on his back, CJ Vergara was able to return to his feet. However, Taira quickly looked for another takedown and easily took Vergara back down, although Vergara was able to reverse the position late in the round. Taira landed some good leg kicks to start the second round and then took Vergara back down 90 seconds into the round. He immediately took Vergara’s back and then patiently worked towards a submission late in the round. The fight ended with Taira ahead 22-19 in significant strikes and 31-29 in total strikes, while landing three of his eight takedown attempts with 6:19 in control time.
Still undefeated with a 12-0 pro record, Taira has three wins by TKO, six submissions, and three decision wins. One of those decision victories came in a two-round fight that actually took place down at 115 lb, which is something you rarely see in men’s professional MMA. The only times Taira has been in fights that lasted longer than 10 minutes were in his UFC debut at 125 lb and a 2020 three-round decision that took place at 135 lb. In between those two decisions, he landed three straight first round submission victories and all six of his career submission wins have come in under 10 minutes, with five ending in round one. Two of his three TKO wins also came in round one, with the other ending 19 seconds into round two.
Overall, Taira relies mostly on his grappling but isn’t helpless on the feet and throws crisp leg strikes. He’s still just 23 years old and we should see improvements every time he steps inside the Octagon. We’re especially interested to see how he grows as a striker, which is clearly his biggest weakness at the moment. Regardless, he’s a very solid grappler and until he faces an opponent with elite defensive wrestling, we should see Taira find success on the mat.
Jesus Aguilar
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Fresh off a third round submission win on DWCS, Aguilar will be making his UFC debut on an eight fight winning streak with four of his last five wins ending in guillotine submissions. The only time he’s required the judges in his last five matches came in a grappling-heavy decision win in his second most recent fight. His only other fight not to end in a submission was a 2018 split decision win.
In his last fight, Aguilar landed a takedown just over a minute into the first round but nearly succumbed to a guillotine choke, which is generally his move. However, he was able to escape and the fight returned to the feet. Aguilar then looked for another takedown, but instead got taken down himself. As Aguilar tried to return to his feet, his opponent, Erisson Ferreira, looked to lock up another guillotine. Once again, Aguilar was able to escape, and then once again Aguilar looked for a takedown but ultimately got taken down himself. Aguilar then had his back taken but was able to eventually reverse the position to end the round on top. The two fighters came out swinging in round two, before Aguilar relentlessly began hunting for a takedown. And just as we saw in the first round, Aguilar ended up getting taken down himself while looking to land a takedown of his own. However, Ferreira practically let Aguilar back up and then Aguilar was able to land his own takedown. Aguilar controlled Ferreira for most of the remaining round, before getting reversed in the closing seconds. Ferreira looked to be fading at that point and it sounded like he had a tough weight cut coming into the fight, which may have contributed to that. Aguilar landed another takedown in the opening 30 seconds of round three and after a minute on the mat, Aguilar wrapped up a guillotine as Ferreira tried to return to his feet. The fight ended with Aguilar ahead 24-14 in significant strikes and 38-32 in total strikes. He landed 3 of his 8 takedown attempts with 6:34 in control time.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Aguilar has six wins by submission and two decision victories. Five of his six submission wins have come by guillotine and his last three finishes have all occurred in the later rounds. His only career loss was a first round submission in his 2015 pro debut and he’s won eight straight fights since then.
Overall, Aguilar looks like a one-trick pony who tries to win every fight by guillotine. He likes to take opponents down and then look for guillotines during the scrambling exchanges as his opponents try to return to their feet. He has just a 62.5” reach, the shortest of any male fighter in the UFC. His wrestling doesn’t look that great, nor does his striking, and while being good at one thing may be enough on the regional scene to win fights, it’s hard to see Aguilar finding much success against legitimate competition at the UFC level.
Fight Prediction:
Taira will have a 3” height advantage and 8” reach advantage.
Both of these two rely on grappling to win fights, but Taira is the far superior of the two and also a better wrestler. Neither guy has looked especially impressive on the feet, but Taira does throw good leg kicks and with Aguilar having the shortest reach on the roster at 62.5”, we could see Taira tear Aguilar’s leg up from the outside until this fight hits the mat. While Aguilar is a guillotine specialist, we’d be surprised if Taira fell into that trap, which is really the only path to victory Aguilar has. We’ve seen Aguilar get taken down with relative ease, and we expect Taira to get this fight to the ground without too much trouble and lock up a submission in the first two rounds, most likely in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at -160.
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DFS Implications:
Taira is coming off a second round submission win that was good for 107 DraftKings points after he scored 97 points in a decision win in his debut. So he’s shown a really solid floor and a decent ceiling, but is now the most expensive fighter on the slate. That creates more ways for him to get left out of tournament winning lineups, as he’s yet to put up a truly slate-breaking score. He’s not the most polished striker, but does throw decent leg kicks. However, it’s his grappling where he earns his keep, making him a safer play on DraftKings than FanDuel. Four of his last five wins have come by submission, with three of those ending in round one and the other in round two. Now he’ll face a debuting opponent who’s been submitted in his only career loss, so there’s no reason to think Taira can’t lock up another submission here. The bigger question will be whether or not he gets priced out of the winning lineup at his high price tag. Nine of the 12 fights on this card are expected to end early, creating lots of potential scoring competition. Taira will need to outscore the other high priced options, which will require either a well timed finish or a completely dominating wrestling performance with a huge number of takedowns. He’ll also need the other expensive fighters to not put up massive scores. The odds imply Taira has an 89% chance to win, a 56% chance to land a finish, and a 28% chance it comes in round one.
Aguilar is a one-dimensional guillotine specialist with unimpressive striking and wrestling. He’ll be making his UFC debut as the biggest underdog on the card against a far superior grappler and it’s hard to get at all excited about his chances. He’ll need to lock up a hail mary guillotine and it would be shocking to see Taira fall for that. While we are expecting to see grappling exchanges that could theoretically create an opening for Aguilar to look for a guillotine, Aguilar’s lack of variety in his attacks should make him an easy opponent to prepare for. We have confidence that Taira will be prepared for Aguilar’s well known guillotine attack and don’t have much of any interest in playing Aguilar. The odds imply he has an 11% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Junyong Park
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Fresh off his first early win in the UFC, Park submitted a fraudulent Joseph Holmes in the second round of his last fight. Prior to that impressive win, Park won a close/questionable split-decision over Eryk Anders, who spent the entire fight trying to take Park down but was only able to complete 3 of his 24 attempts. Park’s only loss in his last six fights came in a 2021 R2 KO against Gregory Rodrigues, in a fight that Park nearly landed a finish of his own. That’s the only time Park has ever been knocked out.
In his last fight, we saw somewhat of a slower start with an elongated feeling out process before Joseph Holmes looked to tie Park up midway through the round. The two briefly separated and then Park caught one of Holmes’ kicks and spilled him to the mat. Holmes briefly returned to his feet but Park pounced on him and dragged him back to the mat. Park worked his way to the back of Holmes and began looking for a rear-naked choke, but was unable to complete it and Holmes reversed the position late in the round. As soon as the second round started, Park took Holmes back to the mat and quickly mounted him. At that point, Holmes seemed to be fading and Park dominated him on the ground before locking up a rear-naked choke midway through the round. The fight ended with Holmes ahead 20-18 in significant strikes, but Park led 48-21 in total strikes and landed two of his four takedown attempts with 4:37 in control time.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Park has five wins by KO, four by submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. All three of his early losses have come in the second round. The one time Park was finished prior to joining the UFC came in a 2016 R2 rear-naked choke against Shavkat Rakhmonov, who’s now murdering everyone in his path in the UFC. Park was then submitted in the second round of his UFC debut by Anthony Hernandez, before getting knocked out in the second round by Gregory Rodrigues in his most recent loss. His last seven and 10 of Park’s last 11 fights have made it to the second round, with six of those 11 seeing round three, and five going the distance. Park spent a portion of his early career fighting at 170 lb before settling in at 185 lb in 2018. He went 5-1 at 170 lb with his lone loss ending in a split decision and four of those five wins coming early. He’s also had three fights at 174-176 lb, where he went 2-1, with all three fights ending early. He competed four times at 185 lb prior to joining the UFC, winning the last three of those, with two of those wins coming by KO. All seven of his UFC fights have also been at 185 lb, where he’s gone 5-2, bringing his career 185 lb record to 8-3. However, only three of his nine career finishes have come at 185 lb.
Overall, Park seems slightly undersized at 185 lb, which makes sense considering he used to fight at 170 lb. He’s a pretty well rounded fighter, with decent striking and grappling, but hadn’t looked especially dangerous anywhere prior to his recent finish. We had grown accustomed to watching him grind out decisions, but he finally showed some finishing ability and could carry over into the future. He’s generally a patient fighter, but we did see him let loose in his fight against Rodrigues before eventually getting finished. Park has only been taken down 12 times on 41 opponent attempts (70.7% defense), although 21 of those 29 failed attempts came from Eryk Anders and prior to that Park had just a 47.1% defense. Park has landed 13 takedowns of his own on 24 attempts (54.2% accuracy) and has been very smart/strategic as to when he looks to wrestle. In his fights against Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues, who are both grapplers, Park didn’t attempt a single takedown. However, in his fights against one dimensional strikers in Marc-Andre Barriault, John Phillips, and Tafon Nchukwi, Park landed 11 takedowns on 19 attempts. So he’s generally more inclined to look for takedowns in favorable grappling matchups, which fits this next fight to a T. looking to take strikers down, although it will be interesting to see if he perceives his next opponent to be more of a threat on the feet or the mat.
Denis Tiuliulin
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Continuing to alternate KO/TKO wins and submission losses, Tiuliulin notched his first UFC win with a second round TKO victory over Jamie Pickett in his last outing. Tiuliulin’s last seven fights have all ended early (5-2), and only two of his last 15 fights made it to the judges. Prior to his recent win, Tiuliulin got submitted in the second round of his short notice UFC debut against another UFC newcomer in Aliaskhab Khizriev. Just before making his UFC debut, Tiuliulin landed a first round KO win, after getting submitted in the third round of a 2020 fight in a smothering defeat against Combat Sambo World Champion Ikram Aliskerov, who entered the fight 9-1 (now 13-1) with his only loss coming against Khamzat Chimiev.
In his last fight, Tiuliulin did a better job of defending takedowns as he stuffed all five of Jamie Pickett’s attempts. Tiuliulin led the striking exchanges on the feet, as he backed Pickett up and forced him into a striking battle. Action was paused for a couple of low blows from Tiuliulin that couldn’t have helped Pickett any, and on the second one Tiuliulin was deducted a point. That seemed to light a fire under Tiuliulin, who blitzed Pickett following the point deduction and eventually dropped him twice and then finished him with ground and pound just as both the round and Tiuliulin’s gas tank expired. The fight ended with Tiuliulin ahead 73-60 in significant strikes and 87-63 in total strikes.
Now 10-6 as a pro, Tiuliulin has nine wins by KO and one by decision. He’s been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has two decision losses. His last nine wins have come by knockout, with the last three ending in the first round. All nine of his knockouts have come in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one. He’s only been to three decisions in 16 pro fights, and one of those was a two rounder in his 2013 pro debut. He’s 0-3 in fights that have seen the third round with two split-decision losses on top of a submission defeat. Amazingly, Tiuliulin has competed anywhere from 155 to 205 lb in the past, but his last 10 fights have all been at 185 lb.
Overall, Tiuliulin has a background in Thai boxing and doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling. While he’s got solid power, he’s very one-dimensional, has bad cardio, and he gets taken down and controlled far too easily. Only 3 of 10 career wins have come against opponents with winning records, so most of his victories have come against questionable competition. He’s really struggled against anyone with decent grappling, which will continue to be an issue for him in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Tiuliulin will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, but Park is three years younger than the 34-year-old Tiuliulin.
Tiuliulin is rarely in a boring fight as he looks to knock out all of his opponents and is also prone to getting finished himself. His one-dimensional striking makes him an easy target for grapplers, but he’s clearly dangerous on the feet. He’s very prone to getting submitted when he does get taken down, and now he’ll face an opponent in Park who’s coming off a submission win and does a good job of relying on his wrestling when he faces pure strikers. We fully expect Park to come in with a smart game plan, looking to get this fight to the ground the first chance he gets. That should really limit Tiuliulin’s opportunities to land the knockout blow he needs to win, and will also drain on his already poor cardio. While Tiuliulin has the power to land a knockout even with fewer chances, we like Park to get him to the ground, wear him out, and submit him, most likely in the second round once Tiuliulin is really exhausted. A late round ground and pound finish is also always possible, but a submission appears more likely. Give us Park by R2 submission here.
Our favorite bet here is “Park SUB” at +350.
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DFS Implications:
Park is coming off his first early win in the UFC after his first four victories with the organization all ended in decisions. That recent second round submission victory was good for 102 DraftKings points. His previous four decision wins returned DraftKings scores of 79, 77, 128, and 93. The one scoring explosion among that group came in a dominant grappling-heavy decision win over John Phillips, where Park landed so many ground strikes that DraftKings had to change their rules to start accounting for total strikes and not just significant ones. Park is a smart, well-rounded fighter who does a good job of utilizing his wrestling when he faces one-dimensional strikers, like he will be here. He’s a little undersized at 185 lb after fighting at 170 lb earlier in his career, so we’ll have to see if the size of Tiuliulin gives Park any trouble landing takedowns. Park will also have to be careful not to eat too many punches from Tiuliulin who has solid power but is helpless on the mat. As long as Park can get this fight to the ground, he should be able to absolutely dominate and put up another solid score. Tiuliulin fades later on in fights, making a late round finish all the more likely for Park. So while we’re generally not overly confident in Park’s finishing ability, this is the perfect spot for him to lock up another submission. At his reasonable price tag, Park should end up in the winning lineup if this fight goes how we expect it to, and the only downside with him is that he’s coming off a solid performance that will drive his ownership up from where it’s been in the past. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Tiuliulin is a KO or bust boxer who offers nothing in terms of grappling but has landed knockouts in 9 of his 10 career wins, with six of those ending in round one and three in round two. Working against him, Park should be looking to take him down and has only been knocked out once in his career. That most likely results in Tiuliulin getting taken down, controlled on the mat, and eventually finished. However, if Tiuliulin can keep this fight standing long enough to land some big punches, he could find a finish of his own and would almost certainly end up in winning lineups at his cheap price tag. So whoever wins this fight has a really good shot at scoring well and ending up in winning tournament lineups. The odds imply Tiuliulin has a 34% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Ji Yeon Kim
10th UFC Fight (3-6)Desperate for a win, Kim has lost four straight decisions and her only win in her last six matches came in a 2019 R2 KO against a terrible Nadia Kassem who never fought again. Eight of Kim’s nine UFC fights have ended with the judges (2-6), with both of her UFC decision wins being split. She’s habitually involved in close decisions, which recently have not been going her way. In her second most recent fight, Kim finished ahead in significant strikes 170-102 against Priscila Cachoeira, but all three judges scored it 29-28 in favor of Cachoeira.
In her last fight, we saw a more conservative approach from Kim, who spent much more time than normal circling away from contact. In fairness to her Kim was moving up to 135 lb on short notice following a late opponent change, while Edwards was coming down from 145 lb. Kim increased her output some in the later rounds as she kept the striking numbers closer, but was still outlanded by Edwards in all three rounds. The match ended with Edwards ahead 101-78 in significant strikes and 116-87 in total strikes. Edwards also landed one of her three takedown attempts with two minutes of control time, while Kim never attempted a takedown.
Now 9-6-2 as a pro, Kim has two wins by KO, three by submission, and four decisions. She’s never been finished, with all six of her career losses ending in decisions. The first two fights of her pro career both ended in two-round draws and both of her UFC decision wins were split. Kim will be moving back down to 125 lb for this fight, where she’s spent most of her UFC career, but has sometimes struggled to make weight.
Overall, Kim is a high-volume one-dimensional striker, who’s never landed a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts. She lands a ton of volume averaging 5.79 SSL/min and 5.77 SSA/min. She has a massive 72” reach, which helps her to pick her opponents apart. It seems like Kim is fighting for her job everytime we see her, but despite losing four straight the UFC continues to give her opportunities.
Mandy Bohm
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Continuing to be terrible, the German-born Bohm has yet to give us any indication that she belongs in the UFC. She’s lost all six rounds in her two decision losses, both of which were against struggling opponents in Ariane Lipski, who’s lost her other three most recent fights and Victoria Leonardo who had previously been finished in both of her UFC fights. Prior to joining the UFC, Bohm was somehow 7-0 as a pro, which makes you seriously wonder about the level of competition she had been facing and only three of her seven career wins have come against opponents with winning records.
In her last fight, Bohm spent half of the first round being controlled along the fence and taken down by a suspect Victoria Leonardo. That ended up being the theme of the match, with most of the fight spent along the cage. The match ended with Bohm ahead 52-39 in significant strikes, while Leonardo led 85-83 in total strikes. Leonardo landed just two of her six takedown attempts with 7:06 in control time, while Bohm failed to land her only attempt and had just 55 seconds of control time.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Bohm has two wins by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. Both of her official losses ended in decisions, and she’s never technically been finished in her short career. However, the No Contest in her 2014 pro debut was originally a submission loss. Six of her last seven fights have seen the third round, with five of those going the distance. Bohm has competed at 135 lb a couple of times in her career, but most of her fights have been down at 125 lb.
Overall, Bohm is a German kickboxer who has poor defensive grappling and looks very hittable. She’ll mix in occasional takedowns and can be somewhat dangerous from top position, but she’s looked bad off her back. She’s also prone to getting controlled on the mat for extended periods of time and we’ve seen her slow down late in fights. She’s been unimpressive in all regards and we’d be shocked if she made it past her first UFC contract.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Kim will have a 1” reach advantage.
This sets up as a striking battle between two one-dimensional strikers, but they’ll each occasionally look for takedowns. They each come in on multi-fight losing streaks and are both desperate for a win here, so it will be interesting to see if that results in them leaving it all out there or fighting more cautiously. We’re hoping for the former, but you never know how fighters will react when their backs are against the wall. While Kim hasn’t been able to catch a break on the scorecards recently, this will be a step down in competition for her, while it will be a step up for Bohm. Kim is the superior fighter here and we won’t get hung up on her past results. We like her to outland her way to victory and get her hand raised in a high-volume decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Kim DEC” at -120.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Kim comes in desperate for a win here after losing her last four and five of her last six matches. Considering she’s never landed a takedown in eight UFC fights, she’s entirely reliant on either landing a rare finish or putting up an insane striking total to score well in a decision win. She’s put up big striking totals in the past, averaging 123 significant strikes landed in her last three fights, but the only time she’s ever eclipsed 68 DraftKings points was in her lone early win in the UFC, which ended in a 2019 R2 TKO and scored 113 DraftKings points. She would have scored 98 points in her second most recent fight had the decision gone her way, but at her expensive price tag that’s still not quite enough to return value. That leaves her reliant on either finding a finish, setting a new career high in significant strikes landed, or landing her first takedown in the UFC in addition to putting up a big striking total. While none of those are the most likely scenario here, they’re all remotely possible. At Kim’s low ownership, that keeps her in the tournament pivot play discussion in this ideal matchup, especially on FanDuel where he tends to score better. The odds imply she has a 70% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Bohm has looked terrible in both of her UFC fights, scoring just 29 and 17 DraftKings points in a pair of decision losses. She spent extended periods of time being controlled in those matchups and got dropped twice in her UFC debut. Both of those losses were against struggling opponents, so it’s not as if she’s been facing tough competition either. She’s already 33 years old, so it’s not as if she’s some young prospect who we’re expecting to see improvements from. Bohm will occasionally look for takedowns, so she theoretically has the ability to score well through a combination of striking and grappling, but she’s yet to actually land a takedown in the UFC. Her background is in kickboxing and we’re expecting to see a high-volume striking battle here, which does create the potential for her to score decently if she can somehow pull off the upset. Working in her favor, Kim has lost four straight decisions and the judges seem to hate her. However, Bohm is as gross as it gets and we’d be surprised if she ever wins a UFC fight. The odds imply she has a 30% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
HyunSung Park
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Road to the UFC Flyweight Finals:
Rolling into the finals following a pair of first round finishes, Park landed a ground and pound TKO finish in the quarter finals and then followed it up with a submission win in the semifinals. Park was notably the only Flyweight fighter in the tournament to land a finish and he landed two of them. Prior to those two wins, Park finished four more opponents and remains undefeated in his career.
In his last fight, Park got knocked down 30 seconds into the first round by a combination of punches from Top Noi Kiwram, who then gave Park time to recover as he stood over him before allowing him to return to his feet. Park appeared to fully recover from the early adversity and committed to a takedown midway through the round. Park immediately took Kiwram’s back and looked for a rear-naked choke, and while Kiwram was briefly able to fight it off, he immediately tapped once Park finally locked it in.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Park has three wins by KO/TKO, three by submission and one decision victory. His lone trip to the judges came in a two round fight in his 2018 pro debut and he finished his last six opponents in the first two rounds, with four of his last five wins coming in round one. Just keep in mind, none of Park’s first four opponents came in with winning records, with two of them never having fought professionally before.
Overall, Park has good size for the Flyweight division, standing 5’7”. He’s a well-rounded fighter who’s dangerous both on the feet and the mat as he calmly stalks his prey and looks for finishes. He’s still just 27 years old and should be constantly improving, with just over four years of pro experience. Once he gets opponents on the mat, he does a good job of putting them away, whether it be by ground and pound or rear-naked choke, which is how he’s finished all three of his submission wins. The only decision of his career came in a two-round fight, so he’s yet to see the third round.
SeungGuk Choi
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Choi won a pair of decisions in the first two rounds of the Road to the UFC tournament to secure his spot in the finals. Three of his last four fights have ended with the judges and he hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat.
In his last fight, we saw a measured start with Choi not doing much early on. He finally attempted a takedown midway through the first round but was unable to complete it. Continuing to focus more on defense than offense, Choi didn’t do much in the round until he briefly landed a takedown late in the round on his second attempt in the fight. His opponent, Qiu Lun, quickly returned to his feet, but as he did so Choi momentarily took his back before getting thrown off just before the round ended. Choi found more grappling success in round two as he landed a takedown a minute into the round. While Qiu was able to return to his feet after not long, Choi soon returned him to the mat and controlled him on the mat for the rest of the round. However, that was the last grappling success that Choi would find in the fight, as he failed to land any of his four takedown attempts in round three. In a low volume affair, Qiu finished ahead in significant strikes 37-26, while Choi led in total strikes 47-45. Choi landed three of his nine takedown attempts with just under four minutes of control time, while Qiu failed to land his only attempt, and the judges ultimately ruled the close fight in favor Choi in a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Now 6-1 as a pro, Choi has two wins by KO/TKO and four decision victories. Both of his knockouts occurred in the first round, but they also both came against opponents who had never fought professionally before. He overall hasn’t fought much in terms of competition, with his first five pro opponents entering his fights with a combined 3-3 record. Choi’s only pro loss also went the distance and he’s never been finished.
Overall, throws less strikes than your typical Flyweight, landing just 53 and 26 significant strikes in his last two fights, despite both going the distance. He’ll mix in takedowns, but isn’t especially impressive on the mat either. He trains under The Korean Zombie and is still just 26 years old, so it’s fair to expect him to continue to grow as a fighter, but his offense has not impressed us thus far. He does appear fairly defensively sound, but that just further contributes to his fights being less exciting.
Fight Prediction:
Park will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
We’ve been far more impressed from what we’ve seen from Park compared to Choi, and while most of Choi’s fights end with the Judges, Park has landed six straight finishes. It will be interesting to see if Park can land another finish here, as Choi fights pretty defensively and has never been put away in his brief career. However, Choi also hasn’t faced much in terms of competition, so we’re not placing too much importance on his past record. Park has a good shot at landing his seventh straight finish in the opening 10 minutes, but we won’t be surprised if he ends up winning a decision based on the way Choi fights. Either way, we really like Park to come out victorious.
Our favorite bet here is “Park’s ML” at -190.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Park looks like an interesting addition to the Flyweight division, especially when it comes to DFS as he’s finished six straight opponents in the first two rounds and offers a diverse skill set of striking and grappling. Working against him in this matchup, Park is facing a more defensively minded opponent who’s never been finished in his brief career. That lowers the chances of Park finding the finish he needs to score well, which is clear when you look at the prop lines. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Choi has been a low-volume fighter who squeaked by his last opponent to secure his spot in the finals. While Choi will mix in takedowns, he hasn’t looked dangerous on the mat and has never submitted anybody. He also hasn’t looked very dangerous in the striking exchanges and appears content with grinding out close decisions. His uninspiring style doesn’t translate to DFS production and his recent two decision wins only would have been good for DK/FD totals of 67/54 and 81/52. We don’t have much interest in playing Choi here despite his cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Rinya Nakamura
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Road to the UFC Bantamweight Finals:
Nakamura came into the tournament as a massive -800 favorite in his first fight and didn’t disappoint as he quickly submitted his first opponent in the opening round. The only blemish in that win was when Nakamura was deducted a point for what were deemed repeated blows to the back of the head, but none that appeared overly blatant. Undeterred, Nakamura took the fight right back to the mat shortly thereafter and quickly secured a keylock submission to force a tap. He followed that up with a first round knockout in his next match to advance to the finals.
In his last fight, Nakamura immediately landed a big left hand that stumbled his opponent, Shohei Nose, to the mat. Nose bounced right back to his feet, but Nakamura continued to exert his will as he was able to stuff all of Nose’s takedown attempts and continued to land big shots. He did a good job of mixing in well targeted knees with his punches before finishing the fight with a barrage of punches along the fence midway through the round. The fight ended with Nakamura ahead 22-16 in significant strikes and 23-16 in total strikes, while he also notched a pair of knockdowns. Nakamura never attempted a takedown in the match, but successfully defended all four of Nose’s attempts.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Nakamura has four wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and one decision victory. Four of those finishes came in the first round, with the other ending 20 seconds into round two. He only turned pro in May 2021, so he’s still very early in his career. Nakamura has only been in one fight that lasted longer than five and a half minutes in his career, so it’s rare to see his cardio tested. Three of his last four fights ended in under three and a half minutes.
Overall, Nakamura is a Japanese national wrestling champion who won gold at the under 23 world wrestling championships in 2017. He had been preparing for the 2020 Olympics, but after they were postponed he transitioned to MMA. In addition to his solid wrestling, Nakamura has shown decent striking and solid power and quickness on the feet. With that said, he has pretty limited striking experience and has plenty of room to grow. He relies largely on his athleticism and after he suffered a bad cut in his third most recent fight, we saw him resort to his wrestling to grind out his line decision win. Still just 27 years old, he looks like an interesting prospect.
Toshiomi Kazama
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Kazama won a grappling-heavy decision in the first round of the Road to UFC tournament, and was then fortunate to have his next opponent drop out at weigh-ins, giving Kazama a bye and spot in the finals. Six weeks before the tournament started, Kazama got knocked out with a flying knee early in the second round, snapping a nine fight winning streak. That fight actually took place on a card that Kazama’s next opponent headlined. Prior to that loss, he had landed three straight first round submissions.
In his last fight, Kazama landed a takedown just over a minute into the opening round and controlled his opponent, Maimaitituoheti Keremuaili, on the ground for the next three minutes. Keremuaili finally returned to his feet in the final minute of the round, but wasn’t able to get a ton going. Kazama looked to close the distance again early in round two, but struggled to get the fight to the ground before eventually getting taken down himself midway through the round. However, he did a good job of escaping bottom position after spending a brief period of time on his back. He then landed a takedown of his own with a minute left on the clock and spent the rest of the round in top position. Kazama pulled guard in the opening 30 seconds of round three, but was unable to do anything with it and Keremuaili retreated back to his feet. Kazama continued to try to get the fight to the ground, but failed to land any of his five takedowns in the final five minutes. However, his relentless scrambling attempts did result in scrambles on the ground even if he didn’t land an official takedown down the stretch. While Kazama was never able to lock up a submission and struggled with his takedown accuracy, only landed 2 of his 13 attempts, he cruised to a unanimous decision win, winning all three rounds. He led in significant strikes 25-22 and in total strikes 84-35, while notching two reversals and a tick under five minutes of control time.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Kazama has three wins by TKO, five by submission, and two decision victories. All three of his TKO wins occurred in his first five pro fights and his last four finishes have all come by first round submission. After losing a decision in his 2020 pro debut, his only other loss came in a 2022 R2 KO just before taking part in the Road to UFC. Six of his last seven finishes have ended in round one, with the other coming midway through round two. Kazama started his pro career at 145 lb and even has a fight at 155 lb, but has been at 135 lb since 2021.
Overall, Kazama is a one-dimensional Japanese grappler who made the business decision to transition from traditional grappling to MMA back in 2020. His training started in judo as a child and is a BJJ brown belt, but offers next to nothing in terms of striking. While he’s solid on the ground, his offensive wrestling leaves something to be desired, which is something he’ll need to improve on, as his only path to victory is through grappling.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Kazama will have a 1” reach advantage. Nakamura is two years older than the 25-year-old Kazama.
While each of these two have grappling backgrounds, Kazama is a jiu-jitsu specialist, while Nakamura is a wrestler. That means Nakamura should be able to dictate where this fight takes place, while Kazama will be forced to look for opportunistic submissions. Nakamura is lightyears ahead of Kazama on the feet and this fight won’t be remotely close if it remains standing. Considering how one-dimensional Kazama is, we’d be somewhat surprised if Nakamura looked to get it to the ground, despite his credentialed wrestling background. We expect him to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing and for him to dominate the striking exchanges. While there’s a chance Kazama can tie Nakamura up or pull guard and look for submissions off his back, we like Nakamura to keep the fight standing and land a knockout in the first half of the match, most likely in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Nakamura ITD” at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Nakamura’s wrestling pedigree and proven knockout power make him a tough fighter to deal with anywhere fights go. His well-rounded skill set also gives him multiple ways to score well in DFS, especially on DraftKings. Now he’s facing a one-dimensional grappler and we should see Nakamura dominate this matchup on the feet. The only concern will be if Kazama can tie Nakamura up and slow the fight down. Kazama is a dangerous submission threat, which should limit Nakamura’s desire to look for takedowns, leaving Nakamura more reliant on landing a knockout to score well. At his high price tag, there are more ways for Nakamura to get left out of winning tournament lineups even if he does find a finish, but his last win would have been good for a slate-breaking 120 DraftKings points and 137 points on FanDuel, and the one before that would have scored 114 DraftKings points and 130 points on FanDuel. So he’s shown a massive ceiling and five of his six career wins have come in under five and a half minutes. The odds imply he has a 78% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Kazama is a one-dimensional grappler who will need to land a submission to win this fight. While he’s pretty slick on the mat, he offers nothing in terms of striking and his takedown accuracy hasn’t looked great. This will be a really tough matchup for him to land takedowns as he faces a talented wrestler who will likely be able to stuff Kazama’s takedown attempts and lap him on the feet. While a submission win is always possible, we don’t have much confidence that Kazama gets it done here and expect him to be overwhelmed in the striking exchanges. He looks like nothing more than a hail mary submission or bust play. The odds imply he has a 22% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
JeongYeong Lee
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Road to the UFC Featherweight Finals:
Knifing through his first two opponents in the tournament, Lee submitted his first opponent in just 36 seconds and followed it up with a 42 second knockout. Prior to the start of the Road to the UFC tournament, Lee hadn’t competed in nearly three years, after landing a violent 2019 R1 knockout in just 10 seconds. With his last three fights lasting a combined 88 seconds, Lee hasn’t been in a fight that lasted longer than 42 seconds since 2018, and comes in on a six fight winning streak. He won the Road FC Featherweight belt back in 2018 and then defended it once before joining the Road to the UFC tournament.
In his last fight, Lee did a good job of going in and out of striking range before dropping his opponent with a combination of punches and then pouncing on him with ground and pound as the fight was stopped. The quick fight ended with Lee ahead 5-4 in striking with no takedowns attempted by either fighter.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Lee has four wins by KO/TKO, three by submission, and two decision victories. His last four finishes occurred in round one and all seven of his early wins came in the first two rounds. All three of his submission wins have come by armbar. His only loss was a 2017 two-round decision, which he later avenged with a first round knockout. Two of the three decisions he’s been to were in two-round fights, and only once in his career has he seen the third round, which ended in a 2018 decision victory.
Overall, Lee is an explosive finisher with impressive striking accuracy and sneaky power. He’s also a BJJ black belt and dangerous anywhere fights go. He’s got pretty good size at Featherweight, standing 5’10”, and does a good job controlling the distance in fights. He has a patient but aggressive fighting style, where he’ll try to draw out an opening from his opponent, but then aggressively go for the finish once he does.
Yi Zha
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Zha landed a first round submission to start his tournament run, before securing his spot in the finals with a close grappling-heavy, split-decision win in the semifinals. Zha has won three straight and 10 of his last 11 fights.
In his last fight, Zha shot for a takedown 20 seconds into the first round, but couldn’t secure the position on the mat and ended up having to defend his neck before the two fighters returned to space. Zha was able to complete a takedown later in the round and take the back of his opponent, Koyomi Matsushima, who was able to reverse the position after not long. Matsushima landed a pair of his own takedowns late in the round, finishing the round strong. The two fighters appeared pretty evenly matched, as they each looked for takedowns throughout the fight and exchanged positions on the mat, but there wasn’t much striking volume being landed. The match ended dead even in significant strikes at 32 apiece, with Matsushima narrowly ahead 53-50 in total strikes and both fighters landing six takedowns, Matsushima on 14 attempts and Zha on nine attempts. Matsushima finished ahead in control time 4:33-3:47, and while one judge ruled it 30-27 (Junichiro Kamijo…shocker) in favor of Matsushima, the other two scored it 29-28 for Zha, showing just how close it was.
Now 21-3 as a pro, Zha has six wins by KO/TKO, 10 by submission, and five decision victories. His last four finishes all came by submission in the first two rounds, with three of those ending in round one. He’s been knocked out once (R2 2021), submitted once (R1 2018), and has one decision loss (2018).
Overall, Zha is China’s last hope in this tournament, but he hasn’t been very impressive. He’ll shoot for a decent number of takedowns and has some submission skills, but doesn’t stand out as being exceptional anywhere. He got knocked out by Keremuaili Maimaitituoheti in January 2021, who has spent most of his career at 135 lb and lost in the first round of this Road to the UFC tournament. That’s not a great sign for Zha’s durability and he does not appear to be a UFC level talent.
Fight Prediction:
Lee will have a 3” height and reach advantage.
Lee looks better everywhere compared to Zha and we’re not expecting this fight to be very close. Zha has been finished twice before by less talented opponents, including fellow tournament competitor Maimaitituoheti, who generally fights at a lower weight class. Lee has looked dangerous both on the mat and the feet, and we expect him to find a finish in the first two rounds. Zha is generally looking for takedowns, which could result in him getting submitted, but if he doesn’t get Lee down early, then look for Lee to knock Zha out, most likely in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “JeongYeong Lee ML” at -240.
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DFS Implications:
Lee has finished three straight opponents in 42 seconds or less, showing massive DFS upside. Seven of his nine career wins have come early, all in the first two rounds, and he’s dangerous everywhere the fight goes. Zha has been finished twice in the past, including by an opponent who competed in this Road to the UFC tournament at a lower weight class, and looks far from indestructible. Lee will also have a 3” height and reach advantage and seems to check all the boxes. However, at his high price tag, he still needs a finish to return value, but we expect him to find one. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 28% chance it comes in round one.
Zha narrowly squeaked by with a split decision win in his last fight to make it to the finals, but now he’ll face a step up in competition, and he doesn’t appear equipped for the task. While he will look for takedowns in bunches, he’ll be at risk of getting submitted if he completes any in this matchup. He’ll also be at a serious striking disadvantage, so unless he lands some hail mary finish, it’s hard to see him pulling off the upset. We’re expecting one way traffic in this one and we could see Zha get quickly finished. That doesn’t leave us with much interest in playing him in any formats. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Anshul Jubli
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Road to the UFC Lightweight Finals:
Coming off a split decision win in the semifinals of the Road to the UFC tournament, Jubli was fortunate to only have to fight once to make it this far, as his first opponent in the tournament dropped out due to a botched weight cut and Jubli was given a bye in the first round. Prior to the tournament, Jubli won his first five pro fights after turning pro in 2019. All of those fights took place in the UAE with the Matrix Fight Night promotion.
In his last fight, Jubli aggressively pushed forward as he took early control of the center of the Octagon. He momentarily looked for a half-hearted takedown a minute into the fight, but quickly gave up on it and never attempted another one in the match. He found success landing his punches, notching a knockdown in the first round, and also did a good job of attacking the body of his opponent, KyeungPyo Kim. Kim landed one of his two takedown attempts in round one, and both of his attempts in round two, but Jubli immediately returned to his feet on the first two of those, while the third came right at the end of round two. Kim landed one more takedown in the third round on six attempts, but again, Jubli didn’t spend too long on his back. Kim finished with four takedowns landed on 10 attempts, but just 35 seconds of total control time. Jubli looked to be tiring late in round two, but Kim also looked to be slowing late in the fight as the two continued to trade punches until time ran out. In addition to landing four takedowns, Kim finished ahead in significant strikes 100-97 and in total strikes 107-100, but two of the three judges still thought Jubli had done enough to get his hand raised.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Jubli has one TKO win, one by submission, and four decision victories. Both of his finishes ended in the first round, but two of his last three matches have ended with the judges. Keep in mind, Jubli hasn’t faced the toughest competition, so it remains to be seen how he’ll stack up in the UFC.
Overall, Jubli trains in his home country of India and after his last win he talked about how there is very limited training in India when it comes to Muay Thai, kickboxing, and jiu-jitsu. He said they really only have coaches for wrestling and boxing there, so he’s still working on rounding out his skillset. While he relied on his boxing to win his last fight, he did show some wrestling ability in each of his previous two matches. He later revealed he fought that match with a broken toe and a knee injury that prevented him from doing any grappling training for the months leading up to the fight. Jubli prides himself on being a fast learner, so considering he only turned pro three and a half years ago, we could see an improved version of him here.
Jeka Saragih
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Saragih has recorded three straight knockouts, and after landing a third round spinning backfist KO in his first fight in the Road to the UFC tournament, he knocked out his last opponent in round one to secure a spot in the finals. Saragih has won 13 of his last 14 fights with the one exception being a 2020 R4 sub defeat.
In his last fight, Saragih came in as a large underdog, but was undeterred. After a brief feeling out process, Saragih began landing heavy body kicks while looking for knockout punches. After narrowly missing on several knockout blows, Saragih landed a clean right hand midway through the first round for a walk off knockout that left his opponent out cold on the mat. The fight ended with Saragih ahead 15-12 in striking with no takedowns attempted.
Now 13-2 as a pro, Saragih has eight wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and one decision victory. Of his 12 finishes, seven have come in round one, three ended in round two, and two occurred in round three. He’s been submitted in both of his career losses, with one of those defeats coming in the first round of his 2016 pro debut and the other in the fourth round of a 2020 match.
Overall, Saragih is a stalky, powerful striker who rarely requires the judges. He’s trying to become the first Indonesian UFC fighter and has spent his entire career with the One Pride organization in Indonesia, where held the Lightweight belt from 2017 to 2020. In addition to his dangerous striking, he’s shown decent grappling at times, but appears to prefer knockouts to submissions.
Fight Prediction:
Jubli will have a 4” height advantage but both fighters share a 69” reach and are 28 years old.
It will be interesting to see how Saragih deals with his height disadvantage in this matchup, as he’s the significantly shorter fighter. Both guys are primarily strikers, but they’ll also each look for takedowns at times. They’ve each shown decent defensive wrestling, which should help to keep this a striking battle. While we saw Jubli slow down in the back half of his last fight, he was dealing with multiple injuries coming into that matchup, which may have contributed to that. With that said, Jubli has never finished anybody beyond round one, while two of Saragih’s last three finishes occurred in the later rounds. Saragih also has two and a half times as many pro fights as Jubli and is the more experienced fighter. Saragih is the more explosive of the two and Jubli has looked pretty hitable as he keeps his left hand a little low. So as long as Saragih can effectively close the distance and connect with his devastating right hand, we like his chances of landing his fourth straight knockout, and that’s how we’re predicting this fight ends.
Our favorite bet here is “Saragih KO” at +260.
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DFS Implications:
Jubli is still very green, with just six pro fights to his name. After getting a bye in the first round of the tournament, he won a split decision in his last match to get him to the finals without having to do a whole lot. He’s talked about how he has limited access to training in India, with boxing and wrestling the main areas of focus. Because of that, he’ll likely be looking to learn on the job as he steps onto the biggest stage, which is concerning for his outlook. He has good size for the division, but doesn’t really excel anywhere. He will mix in wrestling and look for submissions at times, but has been content with keeping fights standing as well. So it’s hard to know what his game plan will be coming into this matchup. We’re expecting more of a striking battle, but there is a chance he looks to wrestle some, which would benefit him in DFS. Jubli still appears dependent on landing a finish to score well, and four of his six pro fights have ended with the judges. Saragih has never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, including once by kimura, a move that Jubli has aggressively attacked in the past but has never completed. The odds imply Jubli has a 51% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Saragih is an aggressive finisher who has only required the judges once in 15 pro fights. He hunts for big knockouts, but his shorter stature can make it tougher for him to connect on a lot of those kill shots. Nevertheless, he throws enough volume to give him numerous opportunities to land one, which is often all he needs to end a fight. Jubli has looked pretty hittable and in the past has tended to keep his left hand low, which will open the door for Saragih to land his power right. While Saragih will mix in grappling, Jubli has shown decent defensive wrestling and his size could make it tougher for Saragih to get him down. That leaves Saragih dependent on landing a knockout to score well and he’s unlikely to put up a big score in a decision win. While Jubli has never lost a fight, let alone been finished, he only has six pro fights to his name, so it’s hard to fully evaluate how good his chin is. The odds imply Saragih has a 49% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Yusaku Kinoshita
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a R3 KO win on DWCS, Kinoshita has knocked out his last two opponents and it would have been three if he wasn’t DQ’d for illegally grabbing the fence while legally stomping out his opponent in the second round of a 2021 Rizen match.
In his last fight, Kinoshita pushed forward throughout the fight, landing a high number of leg strikes (23) as he did a good job of attacking his opponent, Jose Henrique, at all levels. Kinoshita showed good head movement in the fight as he evaded the majority of the strikes coming back his way. Henrique was warned multiple times for outstretched fingers and early in the third round he poked Kinoshita and the fight was paused, but no point was taken. Shortly after action resumed, Kinoshita landed a huge left hand and followed up with ground and pound to finish the fight in the opening minute of round three. Kinoshita hurt his ankle/foot in the second round of the fight as he landed a kick to the knee of his opponent, but it’s been long enough that he should be fine moving forward. The fight ended with Kinoshita ahead 62-37 in significant strikes and 64-37 in total strikes, while no takedowns were attempted in the match.
Now 6-1 as a pro, Kinoshita has four wins by KO/TKO and two by submission. His only career loss was by DQ due to fence grabbing, so no one has ever really beaten him in the true sense of the word. Five of his early wins occurred in the first round, while the last one came in the opening minute of round three, which is the only time he’s seen the third round.
Overall, the 22-year-old Kinoshita is a Japanese karate style striker who rarely looks to grapple, despite the two submission wins on his record. He has heavy hands and good head movement, although sometimes relies a little too much on his head movement opposed to moving his feet. That has the potential to get him into trouble in the UFC, the same way it did for Dusko Todorovic. Kinoshita is still very early in his career after just turning pro in late 2020, so it remains to be seen if he’s entirely prepared for the UFC at this point in his career, and there are still many questions surrounding him.
Adam Fugitt
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Fugitt is looking to bounce back from a R3 KO loss in his short notice UFC debut against a tough opponent in Michael Morales. Prior to that, he had finished four straight opponents, but had only fought once since 2019, which ended in a 43 second R1 TKO. While Fugitt has had a couple of fights in the LFA, overall he hadn’t been facing the toughest competition before he joined the UFC.
In his last fight, Fugitt held his own for two rounds as the striking totals were almost identical over the first 10 minutes. Fugitt also landed a takedown in the first round with 91 seconds of control time, but ultimately lost the position as he tried to pass to side control. After going toe to toe with Morales for two rounds, Fugitt got dropped a minute into round three following a pair of failed takedown attempts. He tried to recover as he quickly returned to his feet, but Morales knocked him down a second time and the fight was quickly stopped. It ended with Morales ahead 83-64 in significant strikes and 89-70 in total strikes. Fugitt landed one of his eight takedown attempts, while Morales failed to land his only attempt.
Now 8-3 as a pro, Fugitt has four wins by TKO, three by submission, and one decision victory. He’s been knocked out in his last two losses, after losing a 2017 decision to Austin Vanderford in his first career defeat. Fugitt’s last eight fights have all ended early (6-2), but four of his last five have made it out of the first round.
Overall, Fugitt is a former high school wrestler who started training jiu-jitsu and then MMA in his early 20’s. He’s willing to stand and trade at times, but typically relies on his wrestling to win fights and has a below average striking defense. While he’ll look for a good number of takedowns, he hasn’t looked especially dangerous on the mat up to this point. Despite only having 11 pro fights under his belt, he’s already 34 years old after getting a late start to his career. Fugitt recently talked about adding some muscle coming into this fight after working with the UFC PI following his debut and has several months to prepare for this matchup, so it will be interesting to see what improvements he’s made. He also mentioned that he doesn’t actually have a multi-fight contract with the UFC, which is unusual, and he’s basically filling in on a fight to fight basis.
Fight Prediction:
Fugitt will have a 1” height advantage and 6” reach advantage. He’s also 12 years older than the 22-year-old Kinoshita.
Kinoshita is a powerful striker, but Fugitt should have the wrestling advantage in this matchup. With that said, Fugitt is far from an elite wrestler and struggled with his takedown accuracy in his last fight—albeit against a former Ecuadorian national wrestling champion in Michael Morales. Fugitt will need to find more success on the mat in this matchup if he wants to pull off the upset, as Kinoshita looks like the much more dangerous of the two on the feet. We haven’t seen the young Kinoshita face a ton of adversity in his career, which makes it tougher to know how he’ll react to making his UFC debut, but Fugitt isn’t an overly imposing matchup. The outcome here will likely hinge on Fugitt’s ability to get it to the mat. If he can take Kinoshita down and control him for extended periods of time, we could see Fugitt grind out a grappling-heavy decision or potentially even find a finish on the ground, although that’s less likely based on how his ground game has looked. The more likely outcome is that Kinoshita knocks him out, or potentially even locks up a submission if/when Fugitt forces this into a grappling match.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at -145.
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DFS Implications:
Kinoshita has yet to require the judges in his relatively short career and is typically looking to knock opponents out. Fugitt has been knocked out in his last two losses and looks hittable overall, so this sets up as a decent spot for Kinoshita to land another knockout. With that said, Kinoshita is just 22 years old and making his UFC debut and you never know how he’ll handle the pressure, while Fugitt will be stepping into his second UFC fight and looking to bounce back from a TKO loss in his recent debut. Kinoshita rarely looks for takedowns and doesn’t put up huge striking totals, so he’s entirely reliant on landing finishes to score well and won’t return value in a decision win. The odds imply he has a 70% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Fugitt’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting adds to his DFS appeal and in his recent short notice UFC debut he held his own for the first two rounds against a tough opponent before eventually getting knocked out in round three. Now he’s had a full training camp to prepare and we expect to see an improved version of Fuggitt. With that said, he doesn’t have a great striking defense, has been knocked out multiple times in the past and now he’s going up against an opponent with heavy hands and a 100% finishing rate. That leaves Fugitt with a non-existent floor as he has the potential to get knocked out at any point in the fight. However, if he can get this fight to the ground, he should have the wrestling advantage and that’s his most likely path to victory and scoring well. That style of fight is better suited to the DraftKings scoring system, but he has the potential to serve as a value play on both sites with a win of any kind and also has a history of landing finishes. It remains to be seen how the 22-year-old Kinoshita will handle the pressure of making his UFC debut, but this match will notably take place in the Apex, where Kinoshita recently won on DWCS. Nevertheless, there’s always additional uncertainty when you have a debuting fighter, which adds to Fugitt’s tournament appeal. While we’re not picking Fugitt to win, if he does pull off the upset he likely scores well and has a great shot at cracking tournament winning lineups at his cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 30% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Dooho Choi
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Finally returning from a 38 month layoff, Choi hasn’t competed since December 2019 and hasn’t won a fight since July 2016. He’s lost three straight and had been scheduled to make his return in July 2021 but ended up dropping out due to a shoulder injury. Five of his six UFC fights have ended in knockouts (3-2), with all three of those wins coming in round one and both losses ending in round two. The only time he’s required the judges since joining the UFC in 2014 was in a 2016 decision loss to Cub Swanson, in a wild fight that was later inducted into the Hall of Fame. Choi said he was injured going into his last fight, but fought with a torn ACL because he was only allowed to fight in Korea at the time as he sorted out his military exemption. He said he would have pulled out of the fight had the circumstances been different, but he wasn’t sure how many years he would have to wait for another fight. Then he fractured his arm during the fight and dealt with a shoulder injury leading up to his next scheduled match, in addition to a retina issue, so he’s had to deal with a variety of setbacks. While he never had to serve in the military he had to wait four years to finally be granted exemption from service.
In his last fight, Choi came out aggressive, pushing forward from the start. Midway through the first round Choi stumbled Charles Jourdain with a big left hook, but Jourdain was able to recover. Choi continued to be the aggressor for most of the round, but Jourdain closed the round strong as he dropped Choi with a massive left hand in the final 30 seconds of the round. That momentum carried over into round two as Jourdain began to pull away in striking and then knocked out Choi with a combination of punches late in the round. The fight ended with Jourdain ahead 64-42 in significant strikes, 75-44 in total strikes, and 2-1 in knockdowns, while neither fighter attempted a takedown.
Now 14-4 as a pro, Choi has 11 wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and two decision victories. Eleven of his 12 finishes have come in the first two rounds, with eight ending in round one. He’s been knocked out twice, both times in the second round, and has two decision defeats. Choi started his pro career in 2009 at 154 lb, before dropping down to 145 lb in 2010.
Overall, Choi is a powerful striker who comes out aggressive looking for early knockouts. He’s rarely looking to grapple and in his six UFC fights he has only landed one takedown on five attempts, all of which occurred against Cub Swanson. We generally see a good amount of striking volume in his matches as he averages 5.32 SSL/min and 6.38 SSA/min. His level of inactivity is obviously concerning, as he’s only fought twice in the last 6+ years (January 2018 & December 2019). He did open his own gym in 2020, so he does still appear dedicated to the sport at least, but it remains to be seen how he’ll look back inside the Octagon.
Kyle Nelson
6th UFC Fight (1-4)Moving back down to 145 lb following a decision loss to Jai Herbert at 155 lb, Nelson continues to struggle as he’s lost his last two and four of his five UFC matches. He’s been finished in three of those losses, and his only UFC win came against Marco Polo Reyes, who was attempting to move down to 145 lb for the first and only time in his career after getting knocked out in three of his previous four fights at 155 lb. We’ve seen Nelson fade later in fights and all three of his early losses in the UFC came in the later rounds, including two in round three.
In his last fight, Nelson looked for a takedown early in the first round, but was unable to complete it, which ended up being the theme of the match. Despite no official takedowns being landed in the fight, we saw over nine minutes of combined control time. However, on one of Nelson’s failed takedown attempts early in the third round, Herbert ended up in top position on the mat and was able to control Nelson for three and a half minutes before the two returned to their feet late in the round. The fight ended with Nelson ahead 41-36 in significant strikes, while Herbert led 84-55 in total strikes. Herbert failed to land his only takedown attempt, while Nelson went 0 for 4 on his attempts. Herbert led 5:57 to 3:06 in control time as he won a surprisingly slower paced unanimous 29-28 decision. Herbert was notably coming off a violent KO loss, which likely contributed to the more tentative approach against Nelson, who was also coming off a pretty bad KO loss of his own.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Nelson has five wins by KO, four by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has two decision losses. Seven of his last eight fights ended early (4-3), with all four of those early wins coming in round one and all three of the losses ending in the later rounds. He’s fought at both 145 lb and 155 lb in his career, and after making his UFC debut at 155 lb he dropped down to 145 lb for his next three fights before moving back up to 155 lb for his last match. Now he’ll drop back down to 145 lb where he’s gone 1-2 so far in the UFC.
Overall, Nelson is a brawler with poor cardio who’s moving down a weight class and has only fought once in the last 29 months. His only UFC win came against a corpse and it’s surprising that Nelson is even still in the UFC. While he has decent power it quickly diminishes as fights go on, and now he’ll be cutting an additional 10 lb compared to when we last saw him. Nelson averages just 3.34 SSL/min, while absorbing 5.39/min. He’s failed to land a takedown in four of his five UFC fights, landing just 2 of his 20 attempts overall (10% accuracy).
Fight Prediction:
Nelson will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
The UFC needed to find Choi a tune up fight to get him back on track in front of what was supposed to be his home crowd following a three year layoff. Who better to fill that role than Kyle Nelson, who is typically happy to take part in a brawl, has bad cardio, and has been finished in three of his four UFC losses. While Nelson’s last fight disappointed, we’re expecting these two to meet in the middle and throw punches until someone gets knocked out. They both do their best work in the first round, but we still give the cardio advantage to Choi, although it’s tougher to know where his cardio is at right now following a three year layoff. Regardless, we like Choi to knock Nelson out and it likely happens early in the fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at -165.
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DFS Implications:
Choi has been a R1 KO or bust fighter to his point in his UFC career, with all three of his UFC wins ending in first round knockouts. The last of those wins was all the way back in 2016 and he’s only fought three times since then (2016, 2018 & 2019), losing all three of those matches and getting knocked out in the second round of the last two. However, those losses came against Cub Swanson, Jeremy Stephens, and Charles Jourdain. Choi will now face a much easier test in Kyle Nelson, who’s 1-4 in the UFC and has been finished in three of his four losses. While Choi’s inactivity is certainly concerning, Nelson has only fought once in the last 29 months and hasn’t been especially active himself. Nelson is also dropping back down to 145 lb after moving up to 155 lb for his last fight, where it looked like he wanted to stay before this matchup was put together. The UFC basically told him to move back down and take this fight and Nelson isn’t exactly in a position to refuse orders based on his UFC record. So overall, this matchup was handpicked by the UFC to reintroduce Choi back to the UFC in a fight that had been scheduled to take place in his home country of South Korea before the card was moved to Las Vegas. By all indications, the UFC was teeing Nelson up for Choi to land another highlight reel knockout and this looks like a great spot for him to put up a big score. Just keep in mind, Choi hasn’t fought in over three years and has battled several injuries, which adds some uncertainty to the mix. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Nelson is coming off a lackluster decision loss, but prior to that he hadn’t required the judges in his first four UFC fights (1-3). His only win in the UFC came in a first round KO against a terrible, struggling opponent. To Nelson’s credit, his last four wins have all come in the first round, at least presenting some theoretical upside. He’s an aggressive fighter who looks for finishes, but tends to gas out later in matches so he basically has a round and a half to get the job done or he becomes a sitting duck. He claims to have worked on his diet and weight cutting process with the goal of improving his cardio, but we’ll believe it when we see it. He’ll have to cut an additional 10 lb in this fight compared to his last one, which will only make things tougher on him. Working in his favor, Choi hasn’t fought in over three years and has been knocked out in his last two losses, but those defeats came against stiffer competition and we have very little confidence in Nelson getting the job done here. The line has been moving in his favor, but that can likely be attributed to Choi’s long layoff and three-fight skid. Nelson will need an early knockout to win this fight, and while we’re not expecting that to happen, if it does he’ll likely end up in tournament winning lineups at his cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Marcin Tybura
17th UFC Fight (10-6)Coming off a majority decision win over Alexandr Romanov, Tybura has won six of his last seven fights, with his only loss over that stretch being a decision loss to Alexander Volkov. Tybura notably went 0 for 16 on his takedown attempts against Volkov, which appeared to tire both guys out. Five of his last seven fights have gone the distance, with the two exceptions being a pair of ground and pound finishes over Walt Harris and Greg Hardy, who are both one-dimensional strikers with cardio issues.
In his last fight, Tybura got slammed to the mat in the opening minute of the fight, but remained calm as he tried to work back to his feet and avoid taking damage. He successfully returned to his feet midway through the round, but was unable to escape the grasp of Romanov, who didn’t take long to pick Tybura back up and slam him back to the mat. Romanov went to work with ground and pound at that point, while Tybura looked essentially helpless. However, Tybura was able to survive the round, despite failing to land a single significant strike in the opening five minutes. Perfectly executing the Homer Simpson defense, Tybura was able to stuff Romanov’s opening takedown in round two as Romanov looked visibly tired from the beating he put on Tybura in round one. Romanov failed to land any of his three takedown attempts in round two and then slipped as he threw a kick three minutes into the round and ended up with Tybura on top of him. Tybura was able to hold that position and land ground and pound for the next couple of minutes to take the round on the score cards. That momentum carried into round three where Tybura landed twice as many significant strikes as Romanov, while neither fighter attempted a takedown in the final five minutes. While one judge awarded Romanov a 10-8 first round, the other two had it 10-9 and all three judges agreed that Tybura won the later two rounds to secure the decision win. The fight ended with Tybura ahead 47-40 in significant strikes, while Romanov led 95-82 in total strikes. Romanov landed two of his six takedown attempts with 5:02 in control time, while Tybura never attempted a takedown but did have 108 seconds of control time.
Now 23-7 as a pro, Tybura has nine wins by KO, six by submission, and eight decisions. He’s been knocked out four times and has three decision losses. While all of his recent finishes have come by KO, his six submission wins all occurred earlier in his career from 2011 to 2014. Nine of his 16 UFC fights have ended in decisions (6-3) with the other seven ending in KO/TKOs (4-3). Five of those seven finishes came in rounds two and three, with the two exceptions being a 2021 R1 KO win over Walt Harris and a 2019 R1 KO loss to Augusto Sakai
Overall, Tybura is a Heavyweight grappler and BJJ black belt. He’s landed 19 takedowns on 58 attempts (32.8% accuracy) in his 16 UFC fights, while he’s only been taken down by his opponents 7 times on 34 attempts (79.4% defense). Tybura lacks the striking ability to be competitive on the feet with anyone in the top of the Heavyweight division, but can hang against lower level strikers. With that said, he’s typically reliant on taking opponents down and beating them up with ground and pound to win fights and has landed at least one takedown in eight of his last nine UFC wins. He’s lost three of the last four fights where he’s failed to land a takedown, although was able to squeak out a win in his last match without ever attempting a takedown.
Blagoy Ivanov
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Coming off his first win since 2019, Ivanov recently won a close, slower paced decision over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. That’s the seventh straight time Ivanov has gone to the judges and none of his UFC fights have ended early. Prior to that win, Ivanov lost a pair of split decisions to Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis, after winning decisions over Tai Tuivasa and Ben Rothwell. Just before that, Ivanov lost a five-round decision to Junior dos Santos in his 2018 UFC debut. Ivanov has only fought once since May 2020, so he hasn’t been very active.
In his last fight, Ivanov was able to survive the early attacks of De Lima and then outlast him in the later rounds. After De Lima led in significant strikes in round one 25-12, Ivanov finished slightly ahead in each of the later rounds. Ivanov failed to land any of his four takedown attempts in the fight, while De Lima landed one of his five attempts. In typical Ivanov fashion, it wasn’t the most eventful match and De Lima actually finished ahead in significant strikes 68-62 and in total strikes 81-75. However, with De Lima slowing down after round one, all three judges scored it 29-28 in favor of Ivanov.
Now 19-4 as a pro, Ivanov has six wins by KO, six by submission, and seven decisions. The only person to ever finish him is Alexander Volkov, who submitted him with a second round rear-naked choke in 2014—one of Volkov’s few career submission wins. Ivanov’s other three losses came in decisions against Junior dos Santos, Derrick Lewis, and Augusto Sakai. The last two of those were both split. The last time Ivanov finished anybody was in a 2017 R1 TKO and the last time he landed a submission came in a 2015 third round guillotine choke.
Overall, Ivanov is an absolute tank who has shown he can’t be stopped by fists, kicks, or knives. Ivanov was infamously stabbed in the heart in a Bulgarian bar in 2012 and spent three months in a coma if you need any further proof of his toughness. However, he’s now 36 years old and being known for your durability doesn’t translate to exciting fights. He only averages 3.44 SSL/min and 0.9 TDL/15 min. He will look for submissions, but has only come close enough to landing one to be awarded with a single official submission attempt in the UFC. He’s a Judo black belt and a former Combat Sambo World Champion (2008), although you probably wouldn’t guess that if you watched him fight recently. In his six UFC fights, Ivanov has landed six takedowns on 15 attempts (40% accuracy), while he’s been taken down twice on nine opponent attempts (77.8% defense). No one has ever gotten him down more than once in a fight, while he’s attempted at least two takedowns in each of his last four fights.
Fight Prediction:
Tybura will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
Both of these two are Heavyweight grapplers, so it will be interesting to see if that results in a grappling stalemate or if this fight hits the mat at some point. Tybura has a 79% takedown defense, while Ivanov has a 77% defense, and they’ve both done a pretty good job of defending takedowns throughout their careers. It’s very possible we just see them just press each other up against the cage for 15 minutes and Ivanov is habitually involved in slower paced fights. We’d be surprised if this fight ends early and we like Tybura to win a lackluster decision, although it could end up being close so it’s not impossible that Ivanov sneaks out another one.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -190.
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DFS Implications:
Tybura has averaged 90 DraftKings in his 10 UFC wins, but only scored 59 points in his most recent decision victory. In fairness, he spent the entire first round being controlled so basically only had two rounds to work with. He has shown a solid floor prior to that, scoring at least 81 DraftKings points in his first nine UFC victories and 90 or more in six of those. His grappling heavy style is a good fit for the DraftKings scoring system, but now he faces a fellow Heavyweight grappler, which makes this a tougher matchup for him stylistically. Tybura’s wins have generally come in favorable spots, and Ivanov is ridiculously durable in addition to being a Judo black belt and a former Combat Sambo World Champion. That could make it tougher for Tybura to find his usual level of grappling success and Ivanov generally makes for lower scoring fights. With that said, anytime you can put a Heavyweight on their back you have the potential for a scoring explosion. Just temper your expectations and realize that most of Ivanov’s fights are ugly and slower paced. The odds imply Tybura has a 56% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Ivanov has never been one to score well and has fought to seven straight decisions going back to before he joined the UFC. He has averaged just 70 DraftKings points in his three UFC decision wins and only scored 64 points in the most recent of those. While Tybura has been knocked out in four of his seven pro losses, the last time Ivanov finished an opponent was in 2017, prior to joining the UFC. While anything can happen at Heavyweight, we really don’t have much interest in playing Ivanov here and his low ownership is the only appealing thing about him. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Da Woon Jung
7th UFC Fight (4-1-1)Jung will be looking to bounce back from his first career KO loss, which came in the first round against Dustin Jacoby in July 2022. Three of his four UFC wins have come early, with two of those ending in first round knockouts. Jung has only lost once in his last 16 fights and is the only fighter to ever knock out a really durable Kennedy Nzechukwu. Prior to that KO win, Jung won a decision over William Knight after fighting Sam Alvey to a draw.
In his last fight, we saw a slower start with Jacoby attacking Jung with leg kicks. However, midway through the first round Jacoby landed a walk off right hand that dropped Jung and ended the fight. While Jung did return to his feet fairly quickly, he was definitely out before he hit the ground and severely compromised. We have no problem with the stoppage. The fight ended with striking dead even at 14 apiece in an uneventful fight up until the finishing sequence.
Now 15-3-1 as a pro, Jung has 11 wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has one decision loss. While his lone KO loss came in his most recent fight, his one submission defeat came in 2015 in his third pro fight against Roque Martinez when Jung was still fighting at Heavyweight. After going 1-2 at Heavyweight in his first three pro fights, Jung dropped down to Light Heavyweight in 2016 and has since gone 14-1-1.
Overall, Jung is a dangerous striker, who throws heavy elbows, and also showed he can wrestle when he landed eight takedowns against William Knight. However, that’s the only UFC fight where Jung landed a takedown and he’s typically content with keeping things standing. On the other side of things, in his six UFC fights Jung has only been taken down once on nine opponent attempts (88.9% defense).
Devin Clark
15th UFC Fight (7-7)Also coming off a knockout loss, Clark is just 1-3 in his last four fights. His only win over that stretch came in a R3 TKO up at Heavyweight against an overweight William Knight. That’s both the only time Clark has ever competed at Heavyweight and the only time he’s ever finished anybody in the UFC. While six of his seven UFC wins have come by decision, six of his seven UFC losses have ended early, with three KO/TKOs (R1, R1 & R3) and three submissions (R1, R2 & R2).
In his last fight, we saw a slower start with only 13 total significant strikes and no takedowns landed in the first round. Clark was able to land a big head kick, but Azamat Murzakanov was able to recover as he clinched up. Murzakanov took over in round two and had Clark hurt and nearly out at multiple points, although Clark was narrowly able to survive the round. However, Murzakanov landed a massive body shot in the opening minute of round three that dropped Clark and signaled the beginning of the end as Murzakanov pounced on Clark with ground and pound until the ref stopped the fight. The match ended with Murzakanov ahead 79-14 in significant strikes and 95-39 in total strikes. Surprisingly, Clark never attempted a takedown, while Murzakanov failed to land his only attempt.
Now 13-7 as a pro, Clark has four wins by KO, one by submission, and eight decisions. Three of his five early career wins came in his first three pro fights from 2013 to 2015 against opponents who entered with records of 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0. His fourth finish came in his 6th pro fight by way of "Hand Injury" and he hadn’t finished anybody since 2016 leading up to his 2022 third round TKO win over Knight. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has one decision loss. Five of his seven UFC losses have occurred in the first two rounds, although his last two defeats both made it to the third round, with one going the distance.
Overall, Clark is a lifelong wrestler who up until his last fight had generally been adamant about fighting his style of fight, which is to grind out decisions by controlling opponents up against the cage using his tree trunk upper legs. He uncharacteristically didn’t even attempt a takedown in his last match, so it will be interesting to see if that trend continues or if he returns to his wrestling roots here. Clark averages just 2.94 SSL/min and 2.86 SSA/min. In his 14 UFC fights, he’s landed 24 takedowns on 68 attempts (35.3%). He’s never won a UFC fight where he failed to land a takedown, while he’s gone 20 for 54 on his attempts in his seven UFC wins. Clark doesn’t take very well, and while we have seen him fight through adversity at times, he doesn’t look good doing it and is prone to eventually getting finished.
Fight Prediction:
Jung will have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also three years younger than the 32-year-old Clark.
Both of these fighters are coming off KO/TKO losses, which can sometimes result in a more tentative slower paced match. Clark bounced back from his previous two knockout losses with a pair of low-volume decision wins and it would be surprising if he once again abandoned his wrestling. However, Jung is massive and has a solid 88% takedown defense, so Clark may have a tough time getting him down. The last time Jung faced a wrestler it was Jung that was landing the takedowns, so we’re curious to see if he once again looks to take the wrestling to the wrestler. Clark has just a 55% takedown defense, and Jung has been efficient with his takedowns, landing 61% of his attempts. With that said, Jung is the far superior striker and should have no problem winning this fight on the feet. Clark’s only realistic path to victory will be to grind out a grappling-heavy decision win, while Jung can win this fight in multiple ways, whether it be by knockout (the most likely), submission, or decision. However, Clark rarely makes it to the judges in his losses and we expect him to fold at some point from the pressure of Jung, most likely by knockout in the opening two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Jung ITD” at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Jung has scored 102 or more DraftKings points in his last three wins. After failing to land a takedown in his first three UFC fights, he surprisingly landed 8 takedowns on 9 attempts the last time he faced a wrestler in William Knight, showing that he does actually have some wrestling upside when he chooses to use it. With that said, we’re generally playing Jung for his knockout ability and Clark has been very prone to getting finished, with six of his seven UFC losses coming early. The fact that both fighters in this matchup are coming off KO/TKO losses makes us a little nervous as it’s possible they each come in a little tentative, but it’s hard to ignore Jung’s finishing upside. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Clark rarely finishes anybody, with six of his seven UFC wins ending in decisions, but he did land a third round knockout in his second most recent fight, which was good for 107 DraftKings points. However, he generally depends on his wrestling to grind out decision wins, which makes him a much better play on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. With that said, this looks like a tough matchup for him as he faces a much taller opponent with a solid 88% takedown defense. Jung has only been taken down once in six UFC appearances, although he’s only faced nine total attempts. Nevertheless, it would be surprising to see Clark dominate Jung on the mat for three rounds or finish him, which leaves Clark as nothing more than a cheap value play if he can grind out a decision win. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Serghei Spivac
10th UFC Fight (6-3)This fight had originally been scheduled as the main event on November 19th, but ended up getting canceled midway through the card and eventually rescheduled.
Fresh off his second straight TKO win, Spivac has won five of his last six fights, with four of his last five fights ending in TKOS in the first two rounds. His only loss since February 2020 came in a 2021 R1 TKO against Tom Aspinall, in a fight that Spivac accepted on short notice. Spivac’s last five wins have come against Augusto Sakai (four straight KO losses), Greg Hardy (cut), Alexey Oleynik (65 years old and has lost 4 of last 5), Jared Vanderaa (cut), and Carlos Felipe (cut). The only notable win on his UFC record was against one-dimensional striker Tai Tuivasa back in 2019, and even then Tuivasa was in the midst of a three fight losing streak. So while Spivac has put on dominant performances in the UFC, we’ve yet to see him really notch any signature wins against top opponents. In addition to getting knocked out by Aspinall in the first round, Spivac got knocked out just 50 seconds into his UFC debut by Walt Harris back in 2019. Spivac’s only other loss came in a 2020 decision against a fellow Heavyweight wrestler in Marcin Tybura.
In his last fight, Spivac was able to land his first takedown attempt 15 seconds into the first round. While Sakai was able to quickly return to his feet, Spivac took him right back to the mat. Sakai continued to slowly work his way back to his feet, but Spivac never stopped beating him up and grinding on him as he dragged him back to the mat one time after the next. The damage continued to mount and midway through the second round Spivac was able to force a stoppage through ground and pound in a fight that was essentially a shutout. Spivac finished ahead in significant strikes 33-8 and in total strikes 86-14. He landed six of his eight takedown attempts with six and a half minutes of control time.
Now 15-3 as a pro, Spivac has seven wins by KO, six by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has one decision loss. Prior to joining the UFC, he landed nine straight finishes in the first two rounds, with eight ending in round one. Since joining the UFC, he’s had three fights end in first round TKOs (1-2), three end in second round wins (two by TKO & one by submission), and three go the distance (2-1).
This will be the 4th five-round fight of Spivac’s career, but first in the UFC. His previous three fights scheduled to go five-rounds all ended in first round wins just before Spivac joined the UFC, so he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes.
Overall, Spivac is a Heavyweight grappler, and does his best work from top position on the mat. He’s not a great striker on the feet and relies on getting fights to the ground to win. He’s just 1-3 in UFC fights where he’s failed to land a takedown, but 5-0 with when he’s landed at least one. The only time he’s won a fight without landing a takedown was when he defeated fellow Heavyweight grappler Alexey Oleynik in a decision. In his nine UFC fights, Spivac has landed 21 takedowns on 33 attempts (63.6% accuracy), with three or more takedowns landed in five of his six wins.
Derrick Lewis
26th UFC Fight (17-8)Looking to bounce back from a pair of KO losses, Lewis has been knocked out in three of his last four fights and his last six matches have all ended with someone getting KO’d (3-3). Now 37 years old, Lewis certainly isn’t getting any younger and he didn’t look great in his last two fights against Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa, after knocking out an undersized Heavyweight in Chris Daukaus just before that. That R1 KO win over Daukaus is Lewis’ only first round win in his last 17 fights, dating back to 2016. Over that 17 fight stretch, Lewis has gone 11-6 with one R1 KO win, three in R2, two in R3, one R4, and four three-round decision victories. His only other loss in his last eight fights was against Ciryl Gane, and Lewis had won four in a row prior to that loss.
In his last fight, Lewis got backed up by Sergei Pavlovich, who blitzed Lewis with a combination of punches that spilled him to the mat in the opening minute. As soon as Lewis went down the fight was stopped, despite Lewis trying to return to his feet immediately. It definitely looked like a quick stoppage, although the way Lewis went down didn’t look good and he arguably would have just continued to take damage and lose the fight anyways. The fight lasted just 55 seconds and finished with Pavlovich ahead 15-4 in striking.
Now 26-10 as a pro, Lewis has 21 wins by KO, one by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out seven times, has one submission loss, and two decision defeats. His last three wins have all come by KO in under seven minutes, with two ending in the opening 90 seconds of round two and the other coming in the final 90 seconds of round one. His last eight losses have all come early, with seven knockouts and one submission, and the last time he lost a decision was in 2011. While two of his last three fights ended in the first round, he’s still seen the second round in 15 of his last 17 matches. In his 36 pro fights, Lewis has only been knocked out in the first round twice—in his last match and all the way back in 2014 in his 3rd UFC fight. Lewis’ last three losses have all come on Texas PPV cards, fighting in front of his home crowd, while his last three wins have all occurred at the Apex in Las Vegas, where this next fight will also be.
This will be Lewis’ 13th five round fight of his career (10th in the UFC), and he has never been past the fourth round. The first three five-round fights of his career came prior to joining the UFC. The first was in 2012 and ended in a No Contest just 48 seconds in for “Illegal Strikes.” His next was later in 2012 and ended in a second round KO win in a Legacy FC Heavyweight Championship fight, immediately followed by a third round KO win in a 2013 Legacy FC Heavyweight Championship defense. His first five-round fight in the UFC was in 2016 and ended in a fourth round KO win, immediately followed by a second round knockout victory in 2017 and then a fourth round KO loss against Mark Hunt in 2017. Lewis’ next five-round fight was for the belt against Daniel Cormier in 2018 and Cormier submitted Lewis in the second round, which remains the only time Lewis has been submitted in his career. Lewis was then finished again in another five-round match as he was knocked out by Junior dos Santos in the second round of his next fight. Lewis bounced back with a pair of three-round decision wins, before landing back-to-back second round knockouts in fights scheduled to go five-rounds against Alexey Oleynik and Curtis Blaydes. He then got knocked out in the third round of his next five rounder by Ciryl Gane, before knocking out Daukaus in the first round of his last main event, back in December 2021. To sum that up, Lewis is 7-4 plus a No Contest in his 12 career five-round fights. All 12 of those fights ended early, and ignoring the No Contest, all but one of them made it out of the first round. Six ended in round two (4-2), with two ending in round three (1-1), and two more in round four (1-1). Four of Lewis’ last six fights scheduled to go five rounds have ended in the second round.
Overall, Lewis is a low-volume power puncher, who averages just 2.57 SSL/min and he hasn’t landed more than 39 significant strikes in any of his last 13 fights. He’ll often look to mix in a takedown or two to keep opponents guessing. He’s pretty agile for his size and will also throw head kicks. His gas tank is limited so we often see him conserve it early on and/or wear down midway through fights. He has a 55% career takedown defense and he’s been taken down 11 times on 22 attempts in his last 10 fights. Lewis’ last three opponents didn’t attempt to take him down, after the two before that failed to complete any of their combined four attempts. The last fighter to get Lewis down was Aleksei Oleinik in August 2020, who landed his only attempt in the fight before Lewis knocked him out in round two. Prior to that, Ilir Latifi, Blagoy Ivanov, and Daniel Cormier all took Lewis down three or more times. Lewis has actually fared pretty well against grapplers not named Cormier in his career, with wins over Curtis Blaydes, Alexey Oleynik, Ilir Latifi, Blagoy Ivanov, and Marcin Tybura over the last five years.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Lewis will have a 1” reach advantage. Spivac is 10 years younger than the 37-year-old Lewis.
This sets up as a wrestler versus striker battle and will likely come down to which holds up longer—Spivac’s chin or Lewis’ takedown defense. We’ve seen Spivac get knocked out in the first round in two of his three UFC losses, while Lewis hasn’t lost a fight where he’s been taken down since 2018, when he got submitted by Daniel Cormier. Lewis has been taken down a total of seven times since that loss, but went on to win the last three fights where he gave one or more takedowns. However, that’s not really a trend we want to rely on here and Lewis will likely be in trouble if he finds himself on his back, as Spivac offers violent ground and pound and also the ability to submit opponents. Lewis’ massive size makes it tougher to simply overpower him in the grappling exchanges, but we expect Spivac to be looking for trips to strategically get this to the mat. You definitely don’t want to hang out in punching range with Lewis, so Spivac will need to be all the way in or all the way out as he looks to close the distance. The unknown factor in play here is trying to gauge the rate of Lewis’ recent decline, but for what it’s worth he’s never lost three fights in a row before in his career. If he can keep the fight standing, we like his chances of landing an early knockout, but if Spivac can consistently get the fight to the ground, look for him to eventually finish it with ground and pound, most likely in round two. While we could see it going either way depending on whether or not Lewis can keep it standing, we’d be utterly shocked if the fight made it past the fourth round. We’ll officially take Spivac by ground and pound TKO, but we won’t be at all shocked if Lewis knocks him out in the first round and a half.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at -225.
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DFS Implications:
Spivac is coming off a career best performance, where he scored 136 points on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s averaged 113 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with five scores of 101 or more, while he’s been knocked out in the first round in two of his three UFC losses. So he’s typically a guy whose fights we’re looking to target as the winner almost always scores well. However, he’s facing Derrick Lewis here, who’s the exact opposite and generally makes for lower volume fights where the winner is dependent on landing a first round finish to score well. That creates somewhat of a paradox, although the fact that Spivac will be looking to grapple and likely gets knocked out if he fails to get the fight to the ground keeps both guys in play. While Lewis has just a 55% takedown defense, he hasn’t been taken down in any of his last five fights, albeit on just four attempts. Lewis is a massive Heavyweight, who consistently checks in right around the 265 lb limit, while Spivac has weighed in anywhere from 238 to 249 lb in his last three fights. That could make it tougher for Spivac to wrestle Lewis to the mat and/or easily control him on the ground. Spivac’s ability to win fights has been directly tied to his success in getting them to the mat. He’s 5-0 in UFC fights where he’s landed a takedown, but just 1-3 when he hasn’t. That creates a clear path for how he fails here if Lewis can keep the fight standing. The other way Spivac fails is if we see a slower start with a prolonged feeling out process, with Spivac respecting the KO power of Lewis, and Lewis weary of getting taken down. If nothing much happens in the first round, Spivac could find an efficient finish in rounds two or three and still fail to return value at his high price tag. That makes this somewhat of a tricky spot with a wide range of potential outcomes. With that said, he generally racks up enough ground and pound to still score well with later round finishes, making it tougher for him to completely bust if he wins. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 55% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Lewis has been knocked out twice in a row and in three of his last four fights. That makes it tougher to trust him to really show up here, but he still unquestionably has knockout power and is facing an opponent who’s been knocked out in the first round in two of his three losses. This is a similar situation to when Lewis fought Curtis Blaydes back in 2021. We saw a slow start to that fight and then Lewis knocked Blaydes out early in round two but only scored 83 DraftKings points and still got left out of the winning lineup despite being the cheapest fighter on the DraftKings slate at just $6,800. However, just before that Lewis faced another grappler in Alexey Oleynik, and that time scored 109 DraftKings points in another second round knockout, showing that it’s not impossible for him to score well beyond the first round, it’s just less likely. Lewis’ lack of striking volume (2.57 SSL/min) more often than not results in lower scores when he lands mid-round finishes and he has only averaged 92 DraftKings points in his last five early wins, with three of those failing to top 86 points. While there’s a chance he scores well with a second round finish, even at his cheap price tag he more likely needs a first round knockout to be useful unless only a few dogs on the slate win, which is always possible. With that in mind, Lewis has only landed one first round knockout in his last 17 fights dating back to 2016. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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