The Sheet

Fight Day Scratches: None

Fighter Notes:

Fight #13

Johnny Munoz

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

This fight had been scheduled for April 24th, but Simmons suffered a rib injury and was forced to withdraw. Now rebooked almost four months later, these two have had plenty of time to prepare for one another after they both made their respective UFC debuts on very short notice.

Munoz is coming off a decision loss in his ultra short notice UFC debut against Nate Maness in a fight where he led in significant strikes 49-21, but was outlanded in total strikes 158-129. Munoz also went 2 for 16 on takedowns while accruing almost 10 minutes of control time. After getting Maness down to the mat in the first round and hunting for a submission, Munoz nearly finished the fight with ground and pound to close the round but Maness was saved by the bell. However, Munoz accidentally landed two low blows in that round, which came into play later in the match when he landed a third groin strike to start the third round, at which time he was deducted a point. It looked like the fight might be headed for a draw, but the judges curiously gave two rounds to Maness.

Prior to the loss, Munoz was 10-0 as a pro with a pair of KOs, six submissions and two decision wins. Six of those eight finishes had come in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. Munhoz is an advanced grappler who started training Judo and Jiu-Jitsu at a very young age as his father was also a fighter. After taking his UFC debut on just a day’s notice, we expect Munoz to look better with a full camp, not that he looked terrible in his debut.

Jamey Simmons

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Coming off a R1 KO loss to Giga Chikadze in his short notice UFC debut, Simmons looked lost in the fight as he landed just two significant strikes and went 0 for 3 on takedowns before getting dropped with a head kick and quickly finished with ground and pound in just under four minutes.

Prior to the loss, Simmons finished three straight lower level opponents in the first seven minutes of fights with a pair of quick KOs followed by a R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission, which occurred just a few weeks before his UFC debut.

Simmons is now 7-3 as a pro, with only two of his 10 pro matches going the distance, both of which he won. Those decisions came in 2017 in his first pro fight and in 2019. His last five fights have all ended early with four failing to make it out of R1. He has four career wins by KO and one by submission. He’s been knocked out twice and submitted once, with all three of his losses coming in the first round. His wins have notably come against pretty suspect competition, who entered with records of 1-0, 0-6, 4-6, 4-5, 5-2, 20-12 and 16-11.

After starting his career at 145 lb, Simmons experimented with moving up to 155 lb at times (2-0) and had one fight down at 135 lb where he won a decision. All of his other fights, including his UFC debut, have been at 145 lb, but he’ll now drop back down to 135 lb for just the second time in his career. Overall, Simmons does not appear to be a UFC level talent and probably won’t be around for long with the organization.

Fight Prediction:

Munoz will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

This looks like a great spot for Munhoz to notch his first UFC win in style, although Simmons is notably dropping down a weight class, which always adds an additional element of uncertainty. With that said, We like Munoz to control the action on the mat and get a finish here in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bets are “Munoz ITD” at +120, “Munoz R1 Win” at +340 and “Munoz R2 Win” at +600.

DFS Implications:

The biggest takeaways from Munoz’s decision loss in his UFC debut are that he has no problem shooting for a ton of takedowns and he consistently looks to get fights to the ground to hunt for finishes. Even in that decision loss he still scored 63 DraftKings points, which would have been good for 93 points had the decision gone his way. His grappling heavy style lends itself more towards the DraftKings scoring system than FanDuel the longer fights go, but an early finish would score well on both sites. This looks like a great matchup for Munoz to showcase his talents and we’re expecting him to get the fight to the ground and land a finish in the first two rounds, most likely in round one. All three of Jamey Simmons’ career losses have occurred in the first round and those were all against pretty questionable opponents, so we’d be extremely surprised if Munoz didn’t dominate this fight. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 43% chance to get a finish and a 17% chance it comes in R1.

While there’s no one on this card that we have less confidence in than Jamey Simmons, five of his seven career wins have come early, including five in the first round, with all of those coming in the opening two minutes. He’s now dropping down a weight class, which could either help him or hurt him depending on how the weight cut goes, and makes this a higher variance spot. There’s always somewhat of a chance he is the stronger man fighting down a weight class and lands another early KO, but we’d be surprised. He looks like he should have been fighting at 135 lb all along and looked undersized at 145 lb. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #12

Melissa Gatto

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making her UFC debut following nearly a three year layoff, Gatto’s last four scheduled fights and six of her last seven bookings have all been canceled. She withdrew from her last three fights due to a pair of injuries and travel restrictions, so here’s to hoping she actually makes it inside the Octagon this time. She last fought in September 2018 and submitted an impressive Karol Rosa in the first round with a Kimura. Gatto’s last four wins have all come by R1 submission with her other four pro fights all going the distance (2-0-2). She’s now 6-0-2 after turning pro in 2016. She curiously has a pair of draws in her last five matches and doesn’t seem to offer much other than the occasional submission attempt. Her striking was unimpressive in her past fights, but after 35 months away there’s always a chance she’s improved it, especially considering she’s still just 25 years old.

Further adding to the uncertainty surrounding Gatto, she’s now dropping down to 125 lb after previously competing at 135 lb. Gatto also hasn’t faced much in terms of competition outside of Karol Rosa as her first seven opponents entered with records of 0-1, 2-1, 1-1, 5-4, 1-0, 0-0, and 9-4-1.

So in summary, Gatto looks like a one-dimensional submission specialist with no takedown defense and dubious striking. She’s coming off a three year layoff, dropping down a weight and making her UFC debut.

Victoria Leonardo

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from a tough R2 TKO loss in her UFC debut against future champion Manon Fiorot, Leonardo was clearly undergunned and set up to fail in that premeditated murder. Leonardo is more of a grappler than a striker and Fiorot was easily able to expose her on the feet and make things look easy. The fight ended with Fiorot teeing off on Leonardo up against the cage late in the second round, with Fiorot ahead in significant strikes 53-17 and in total strikes 58-18. Fiorot also landed her only takedown attempt, while Leonardo missed on hers.

Prior to the loss, Leonardo landed a R2 TKO win of her own on DWCS in November 2020. In that fight, she was able to finish her opponent through extended ground and pound. Leonardo had previously never knocked anyone out and isn’t a polished striker on the feet, but she is very aggressive and can finish fights on the mat. She also has four submission wins on her record (three by Rear-Naked Choke and one by Armbar). Three of those submission wins notably came in the first round.

Despite having just one fight in the UFC, all three of Leonardo’s pro losses have come against opponents who are currently signed to the UFC in Miranda Maverick, Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot. All three of those losses came early, with the last two ending in R2 KOs after getting submitted in the first round via Armbar by Maverick. Only three of Leonardo’s 11 pro fights have gone the distance and she won all three of those.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’5” but Gatto is six years younger than Leonardo.

Leonardo does notably have one R1 Armbar Submission loss on her record, but it came in 2018 in her third pro fight against Miranda Maverick. Since then, she’s 6-2 with both of her losses ending in second round knockouts. Gatto doesn’t look like any sort of KO threat, so the only way we see Gatto winning this fight is by submission. Leonardo looks stronger and more aggressive and should be able to control Gatto both on the feet and the mat. Gatto has shown a non-existent takedown defense, which should allow Leonardo to dictate where this fight takes place. As long as Leonardo can avoid getting submitted, we like her to win this fight either on the ground or in a decision.

Our favorite bets are Leonardo’s moneyline, although it’s now been bet down from +120 to -120, “Leonardo Wins by Decision” at +230, “Fight Ends in Submission” at +150, “Fight Ends in R2” at +410 and “Gatto Wins by R1 Submission” at +600.

DFS Implications:

Gatto looks like a R1 submission or bust play with no real striking to boost her scoring, but there’s a ton of uncertainty surrounding her debut as she’s coming off a 35 month layoff and is dropping down a weight class. We don’t expect her to look like a completely different fighter, but it’s hard to know how she’ll look after three years away. She’s seen the line move heavily against her, so clearly the betting marking isn’t impressed by her. The odds now imply she has a 48% chance to win, a 35% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance it comes in R1.

Leonardo looks like the more aggressive fighter in this matchup and has fought eight times since Gatto last competed. We expect that to result in Leonardo taking the early lead in this matchup and controlling the fight as long as she can avoid getting submitted. Neither one of these two have been very impressive, which leaves a wide range of potential outcomes as the bar for dominance is low, but we like Leonardo to get the win either on the mat or in a decision. Her grappling heavy style will score better on DraftKings than FanDuel the longer this fight goes, so we prefer her over there where she looks like the best value play on the slate. Just keep in mind that value will also drive up her ownership some. The odds imply she has a 52% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #11

Miles Johns

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

This fight had been booked three weeks ago, but Dos Santos was forced to withdraw due to COVID protocol.

Coming off his first KO win in the last five years, Johns knocked out UFC newcomer Kevin Natividad in the third round in a low-volume striking battle. Johns led in significant strikes 48-33 and in total strikes 56-38, but failed to land any of his seven takedown attempts. For the record, Natividad went on to get knocked out in 50 seconds in his next UFC fight.

Prior to that early win, Johns suffered his only career loss, which resulted from a second round KO against Mario Bautista. In a low-volume fight, Bautista led in striking 18-13 before getting the finish early in R2. Neither fighter attempted a takedown in the match and we saw far more feinting than striking. Johns came into that one with a perfect 10-0 record, but got dropped with a perfectly placed flying knee.

After earning a UFC contract on DWCS in 2019, despite his fight ending in a decision, Johns won a split-decision against Cole Smith in his 2019 UFC debut just prior to the R2 KO loss.

Johns has never been in a fight that ended in the first round and 8 of his 12 career matches have made it to round three, including four of his last five. Prior to his last two fights ending in knockouts, he had fought to three straight decisions, including a five round split-decision win over bright young prospect Adrian Yanez for the vacant LFA Bantamweight Belt in 2018. Outside of his recent KO win, Johns’ only other finish since 2016 was a 2018 R2 Guillotine Choke Submission victory. Six of Johns’ 11 pro wins have gone the distance and 3 of his 5 finishes occurred in his first four pro fights against opponents with records of 0-0, 1-0 and 7-5.

Johns has a wrestling background and actually turned down a wrestling scholarship to focus on MMA. Despite his wrestling experience, he has only one takedown in his three UFC fights on 9 attempts. However, he did go 3 for 4 on takedowns in his DWCS fight just before joining the UFC. Lately he’s been using his wrestling more defensively, as his opponents in the UFC have gone 1 for 7 on their takedown attempts against him, although six of those attempts were by Cole Smith who has just a 33% career takedown accuracy. Johns’ 87% takedown defense also factors in his DWCS fight where his opponent went 0 for 1.

Johns has failed to land above 48 significant strikes in his three UFC fights and only averages 3.33 significant strikes landed per minute. He also doesn’t absorb many strikes and only averages 2.42 significant strikes absorbed per minute.

Anderson Dos Santos

4th UFC Fight (1-2)

Joining the UFC later in his MMA career, the now 35-year-old Dos Santos made his 2018 debut in a decision loss to Nad Narimani. He went on to lose another decision in his second UFC fight against Andre Ewell in 2019, which marked his third straight fight to go the distance after 21 of his first 25 pro fights ended early.

Following the pair of decision losses in his first two UFC fights, Dos Santos finally righted the ship with a R1 Guillotine Choke Submission win over Martin Day in his most recent match. However, Day is notability 0-4 in the UFC and likely done with the organization.

Dos Santos is an aggressive fighter with a terrible 28% striking defense and he absorbed 84 and 73 significant strikes in his first two UFC fights. That suspect striking defense has led to him being knocked out three times in his career, with a 2015 R3 KO, a 2016 R2 KO and a 2018 R2 KO. He’s also been submitted twice, both times by R1 Guillotine Choke. His other three career losses all ended in decisions. Of his 21 pro wins, 17 have come early, including 12 submissions and five KOs. All 17 of his early wins have come in the first two rounds. Seven of his eight fights to make it to the third round notably went the distance, with the one exception being a 2015 R3 KO loss. Dos Santos impressively beat Ricky Simon back in 2016 with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke, prior to joining the UFC. He has a decent Guillotine Choke, which he’s finished three opponents with and likes to use to defend takedowns.

Fight Prediction:

Johns is listed as having a 2” height advantage, while Dos Santos is listed as having a 2” reach advantage, but clearly that’s a mistake and Dos Santos is actually the taller fighter if you see them standing side-by-side.

Dos Santos is far more hittable and absorbs almost exactly twice as many significant strikes per minute compared to Johns (4.8 vs. 2.42). While Johns has gone 1 for 9 on his takedown attempts in the UFC, Dos Santos has gone 3 for 16, so both of these guys have pretty terrible takedown accuracy (30% and 18%). There’s a good chance Johns’ wrestling cancels out Dos Santos’ grappling, at which point we expect Johns to win a striking battle on the feet. We like Johns to win this fight with either a mid to late round KO or in a decision.

Our favorite bets on this fight when it was scheduled a few weeks ago were “Johns Wins by R2 KO” at +1400. We also like “Johns Wins by KO” at +400, “Johns Wins by R3 KO” at +2500, “Fight Ends in R2” at +550 and “Fight Ends in R3” at +1000. However, most of those lines have annoyingly gotten far worse since then in the rebooking. Looking at what’s available now, you should consider “Johns ITD” at +250, his R2 and R3 lines at +800 and +1200, and “Fight Ends in R2” at +550.

DFS Implications:

When these two were originally scheduled to fight just three weeks ago, Johns’ was priced at $8,400/$18, while Dos Santos was $7,800/$13.

Johns’ low-volume striking and poor takedown accuracy have limited his DFS scoring with DK/FD totals of just 81/94 and 64/60 in his two UFC wins. He did score better on FanDuel in his recent R3 KO win and if Dos Santos continues to average six missed takedowns per 15 minutes, Johns has the potential to score decently on FanDuel, while still not quite returning value on DraftKings with another third round finish. Barring a dominant grappling performance, which seems less likely going against a BJJ black belt, Johns will likely need a finish in the first two rounds to be useful on DraftKings and still likely doesn’t return value on FanDuel in a decision. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 26% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.

This is a tough spot for Dos Santos. Johns is a really tough guy to score well against as he only absorbs an average of 2.42 significant strikes per minute and holds an 87% takedown defense. He’s never been submitted and his lone career loss resulted from a Flying Knee R2 KO. Dos Santos isn’t much of a KO threat, with just one knockout since 2014 and is generally reliant on landing submissions to win fights. He also lacks the takedown accuracy and striking defense to win many decisions, which further increases his dependence on choking opponents out. Coming off a first round submission win, Dos Santos’ ownership will likely see a slight rise as the chasers chase. The odds imply Dos Santos has a 34% chance to win, a 14% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #10

Manel Kape

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Still looking to notch his first UFC win, Kape is coming off a pair of underwhelming decision losses spaced just 5 weeks apart in February and March of 2021, Kape has looked oblivious to understanding where he stands in fights and perhaps needs more honest cornermen or simply a reality check—or open scoring. While his last decision was split and could have gone either way, he’s failed to set himself apart in his fights and he’s shown absolutely no sense of urgency in either of his two losses and appears perplexed by the results when they don’t go his way.

In his most recent decision loss, Kape came out slightly ahead in significant strikes 61-55, but trailed in total strikes 76-73 and was taken down twice on nine attempts and controlled for two and half minutes while failing to attempt any takedowns of his own. Saying Kape started slow in the fight may be an understatement, as he landed just two significant strikes in the first round while getting taken down twice on three attempts. He did do better in the later two rounds as he led in strikes in both of those, but things were still close enough for two judges to rule against him.

Prior to that recent loss, Kape fought to another low-volume decision loss in his UFC debut against a really tough Alexandre Pantoja, who outlanded Kape 74-49 in significant strikes and 77-51 in total strikes. Kape went 2 for 7 on takedowns, while Pantoja went 0 for 1. Kape appeared to disagree with the unanimous decision against him, which is silly to anyone that watched the fight as Pantoja outlanded him 74-49 in significant strikes and controlled the center of the Octagon for the entire match.

Prior to his UFC debut against Pantoja, Kape had three straight second round knockout wins in Rizin, where he won the Rizin Bantamweight Belt in the last of those. His last nine fights before joining the UFC were all in Rizin, with him winning six of those—all with early finishes (5 KOs & 1 Submission). His opponents definitely were not overly impressive however. His last three Rizin wins came against Seiichiro Ito, who’s lost his last three fights, former UFC fighter Takeya Mizugaki, who’s lost five of his last seven, and Kai Asakura, who’s lost two of his last four.

Impressively, 14 of his 15 career wins have come early, with nine KOs and five submissions. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted in two of his six pro losses—a 2014 R3 Rear-Naked Choke and a 2017 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke. Kape is a quick striker who can throw flurries of punches, but his ground game looks pretty suspect and his fight IQ is questionable at best.

Kape has fought between 125 lb and 135 lb in the past, but more so at 135 lb until he joined the UFC where he’s fought exclusively at 125 lb. His last two fights before joining the UFC were both at 134.5 lb (61 kg).

UPDATE: Kape was the last fighter to weigh-in and missed weight by 3 lb. Other than that he seemed okay.

Ode Osbourne

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Testing UFC weight classes like they’re free samples at Baskin-Robbins, Osbourne will now fight for the third time in the UFC at his third different weight class. Apparently he wasn’t cutting much weight at 135 lb, where he made his UFC debut, and his second fight took place at 145 lb largely because his opponent took it on short notice. However, it’s interesting to see Osbourne now dropping all the way down to 125 lb for the first time in his career after landing a 26 second R1 KO at 145 lb in his last match. He looked lean at 135 lb in his debut, so it’s unclear where that 10 lb cut will come from, but maybe he donated an organ. If he can safely make the cut, he should have a size and strength advantage at Flyweight if he can maintain his power.

In his most recent fight, which took place at 145 lb after Jerome Rivera stepped in on short notice, Osbourne knocked Rivera down with a laser left hand and finished him with a machine gun-like flurry of ground strikes just 26 seconds into the fight. In fairness, Rivera has been finished in three of his last four fights, so he’s a bit of a doorknob for finishes. That was Osbourne’s second UFC fight after he took 13 months off following a submission loss in his debut.

His January 2020 UFC debut at 135 lb ended in a Guillotine Submission loss to Brian Kelleher, just a couple of minutes into the fight. Kelleher now has seven wins by Guillotine Choke on his record, so it’s sort of his thing. For what it’s worth, Ode looked pretty explosive in the limited action prior to getting submitted.

Prior to that loss, Ode got his shot in the UFC by landing a R1 Armbar Submission victory on DWCS back in 2019. Impressively, his last seven fights have all ended in the first round, with him winning five of those. Three of those wins came by submission off his back, while two ended in knockouts. Eight of his nine career wins have come early, with four KOs and four submissions. Two of his three losses have also come early, both by submission (Guillotine & Kneebar). Nine of his 12 pro fights didn’t make it out of the first round.

It had been reported that Osbourne didn’t cut weight when he was fighting at 135 lb, so it’s not entirely shocking that he can make the cut down to 125 lb, but it will be essential to monitor him closely at weigh-ins, as this is the first time he’s ever dropped down to 125 lb. UPDATE: He made weight with no issues.

Fight Prediction:

Osbourne will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.

Both of these two are good with their hands, but Osbourne has looked a little quicker. While Osbourne’s last seven fights have ended in the first round, Kape’s last nine fights have all made it out of the first round, with six seeing the third round and four going the distance. Clearly Kape is the more patient fighter so it will be interesting to see which style prevails. Kape is notably just 4-5 in his last nine fights, while Osbourne has won five of his last six, so this will be an important spot for Kape to get a win if he wants to hang around the UFC for much longer. With Osbourne coming off a highlight reel finish and Kape coming off a pair of frustrating losses, Kape has more to prove here while Osbourne generally starts fast, which hopefully will finally force Kape into a pace up matchup where he’s forced to leave it all out there. Neither of these two have ever been knocked out but they’ve both been submitted twice, so despite the expectations that this turns into a striking battle, a submission finish is also possible. With Osbourne dropping down in weight and Kape trying to avoid a dreaded 0-3 start in the UFC, we give the narrative edge to Kape but Osbourne has looked dangerous and can definitely win this fight. Kape has been disappointing so far in the UFC, but if can’t get up for this fight then he’s dead to us. Kape checks in a decent favorite, but this is another close one that could go either way.

Our favorite bets are “Osborne Wins in R1” at +850, Kape “Wins by R2 KO” at +900, “Kape Wins by R3 Submission” at +5000 and “Fight Ends in Submission” at +500.

DFS Implications:

Kape has given us no indication that he can score well in a decision with DraftKings totals of just 28 and 31 in his recent two decision losses. Working in his favor however, Osbourne seems to force finishes as his last seven fights have all ended in the first round, with him winning five of those but getting submitted in the other two. So there’s a decent chance we see an early finish from one of these two. With that said, Kape's last nine fights have all made it out of R1 and he’s been far too patient early in fights. Maybe he’ll finally flip a switch here, but we’ll believe it when we see it. He does have the ability to make this an exciting fight if he lets loose, it’s just unfortunate we’re left guessing as to whether or not that will ever happen. His past struggles should keep his ownership somewhat suppressed, which makes us somewhat more excited about playing him in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 32% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.

Osbourne has little patience for long fights, as 10 of his 12 pro fights have ended early with nine of those ending in the first round—including his last seven in a row. He’s essentially the exact opposite of Kape and looks explosive out of the gate with really fast hands. The key will be for him to not allow Kape to slow the fight down, which is certainly possible. Both of these two fighters will mix in grappling, but they also each have the striking ability to keep this entirely standing. Overall this is a tricky spot for DFS with a wide range of outcomes from a massive score in the first round to a low scoring decision. We expect the field to be low on Kape and high on Osbourne based on their recent performances, so identifying leverage isn’t the issue. In the end, this truly could go either way and you’ll want exposure to both of these two. The odds imply Osbourne has a 36% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #9

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

12th UFC Fight (5-6)

Potentially getting her last chance in the UFC, Kowalkiewicz is coming off an 18 month layoff and four straight losses, albeit against a series of tough opponents in Jessica Andrade, Michelle Waterson, Alexa Grasso and Xiaonan Yan. The most recent three of those have all ended in decisions, after she was knocked out in the first round by Jessica Andrade in 2018.

A Muay Thai striker, Kowalkiewicz lands a good amount of striking volume at times as she averages 5.27 SSL/min (4th highest on the slate) and absorbs 5.65 SS/min (3rd highest on the slate), although she’s only averaged 4.11 SSL/min over her last three fights. She’s also only landed one takedown in her 11 fight UFC career. Nine of her 11 UFC fights have ended in decisions, with the two exceptions being a 2017 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss to Claudia Gadelha and the more recent 2018 R1 KO loss to Jessica Andrade.

In her most recent decision loss, Kowalkiewicz lost a lopsided 30-26 unanimous decision to another striker in Yan Xiaonan, who outlanded Kowalkiewicz 93-38 in significant strikes and 157-51 in total strikes. Xiaonan also landed five takedowns on six attempts, which is unusual for her as she only has one other career takedown in her other six UFC fights. Kowalkiewicz missed on her only takedown attempt in that match. Kowalkiewicz did notably suffer an injury to her right eye early in the fight, but the doctor allowed the fight to continue despite Kowalkiewicz clearly being impaired.

Kowalkiewicz is now 12-6 as a pro, with one KO win, two by submission and nine decisions. However, all three of her career finishes came in her first five pro fights from 2012 to 2014, with two of those occurring while she was fighting up at Flyweight, before she dropped down to 115 lb in 2014. Since moving down to Strawweight, Kowalkiewicz has gone 8-6, but just 2-6 in her last eight fights. Her only early win in those 14 fights came in 2014 from a R1 Armbar and 11 of her last 13 fights have gone the distance.

Jessica Penne

6th UFC Fight (2-3)

A former Invicta champion and BJJ black belt, Penne started her pro career at Strawweight, but moved down to Atomweight in 2012, where she went 3-1. However, she moved back up to Strawweight in 2014 when she went on The Ultimate Fighter. Penne was eventually defeated on TUF by Carla Esparza before making it to the finals, so none of those TUF matches show up on her pro record, as everything before the finals is counted as an exhibition match. Despite her disappointing finish on the show, Penne was brought into the UFC following the loss to Esparza.

In her 2014 UFC debut, Penne took on Randa Markos, who was also making her UFC debut. Markos outlanded Penne 55-39 in significant strikes, but Penne led in total strikes 94-76, in takedowns 4-1 and amassed nearly seven minutes of control time on her way to a split-decision win. Since that fight, Markos has fought 15 times to Penne’s three.

Curiously, the UFC thought enough of the split-decision win in her debut to give Penne a title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her next match, presumably based largely on her previous achievements in Invicta and probably also due to a lack of options in the Women’s Strawweight division. Penne didn’t look even remotely ready for that fight and went 0 for 11 on takedowns and was outlanded 126-25 in significant strikes and 162-28 in total strikes. Jedrzejczyk split Penne’s nose wide open early in the match. nearly ending the fight at multiple points in the second round. By the third round, Penne looked like an extra on a slasher set as she painted the Octagon with her DNA. Marc Goddard stopped the fight after Penne ceased to fight back as she shelled up on the cage late in the third round.

Seemingly content with relegating Penne to punching bag status, the UFC next paired her up with Jessica Andrade—after giving Penne a year off to recover from the traumatizing beating she took against Jedrzejczyk. Once again Penne absorbed a life shortening assault, as she was again massively outlanded 117-27 in significant strikes and 118-28 in total strikes, while putting up another takedown donut on six attempts. It almost seems like Invicta was talking shit to the UFC about how good Penne was and the UFC made it their mission to break her. Andrade wasted no time in the match, turning the volume up to 11 early in the opening round as she threw flurries of strikes. The fight was eventually stopped in the second round, as Penne had no answer for the striking dominance of Andrade and looked completely overwhelmed in the match.

Possibly realizing they had broken this poor girl, the UFC next paired Penne up with a less soul-shattering opponent in Danielle Taylor, who came into the fight 1-1 in the UFC with a pair of decisions. In a close fight, Taylor narrowly outlanded Penne 72-69 in significant strikes and Penne finally landed one takedown on two attempts after going 0 for 17 in her last two fights. However, Taylor went on to win a unanimous 29-28 decision.

Following her third straight UFC loss, Penne took four years off from April 2017 until April 2021. During that layoff, Penne was booked against Jodie Esquibel twice in 2019, but Penne withdrew from each citing injuries. She was then scheduled to fight Hannah Goldy in March 2020, but Goldy tested positive for COVID. That matchup was rebooked for April, but Goldy withdrew once again and Loopy Godinez stepped in to fight Penne. After four years away, Penne stole a close decision against Godinez, who led in significant strikes 40-31, while Penne led in total strikes 98-68. Godinez landed three of nine takedown attempts, but those “misses” were really Godinez slamming Penne on the mat and then refusing to go to the ground with the submission specialist, Penne, who went just 1 for 7 on her own takedown attempts. Apparently climbing onto your opponent and baby bjorning yourself to them is enough to win a decision in some judges’ eyes.

Penne has now gone just 6 for 34 on takedown attempts in the UFC (18%). Her official takedown accuracy is listed at 23%, but for some reason they’re factoring in her Invicta fights to reach that number. Penne has missed at least four takedowns in four of her five UFC fights and six or more in three of those.

Prior to joining the UFC, Penne had a history of finishing fights early, with seven submission victories to go along with a pair of knockouts. Only four of her 13 career wins have come at the hands of the judges and six of her seven submission wins notably came in the first two rounds. Prior to her two KO losses in the UFC, she had only been finished once in her career, which resulted from a R4 Armbar Submission at the hands of current UFC fighter Michelle Waterson back in their Invicta days in 2013.

Fight Prediction:

Penne will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.

Penne is a pure grappler who averages just 2.4 SSL/min, but absorbs 4.45 SS/min. So she’s extremely hittable and has been outlanded in all five of her UFC fights. Penne will look to tie up her opponents as much as possible as she hunts for submissions, but her dreadful 18% takedown accuracy rarely allows her to actually land a takedown. So she ends up using her length to drape herself over her opponents as she attempts to drag them to the mat by any means possible, even if that means pulling guard. So Kowalkiewicz should easily be able to win the striking battle, and her 75% takedown defense should give her a good chance to stay upright against the 18% takedown accuracy of Penne. As long as Kowalkiewicz can avoid getting submitted, we expect this fight to go the distance and finish with Kowalkiewicz ahead in strikes and with a large number of takedowns defended. It’s hard to know how the judges will look at Penne’s failed attempts to grapple, so picking a winner in a decision is a challenge, but we could see this play out similar to Penne’s last fight and end in another split-decision coin flip. We’ll still give the edge to Kowalkiewicz to win a decision though.

This likely ends in a decision, but we don’t see much value in any of those lines, so we’re taking a few stabs at “Penne Wins by Submission” at +700, “Penne Wins by R1 Submission” at +1500 and “Fight Ends in Submission” at +550.

DFS Implications:

With all five of her UFC wins ending in decisions, Kowalkiewicz has never been much of a DFS producer, with DraftKings scores of 90, 89, 77, 88 and 67 in those wins. So even though she landed 119 or more significant strikes in three of those five fights, her lack of grappling kept her from really scoring well. She did notably score 111 FanDuel points in her last decision win, so with the potential for a ton of takedowns defended we definitely prefer her over there. She has shown a decent floor, so if we get a bizarrely low scoring slate it’s also always possible that she sneaks into winning lineups as a value play. Also working against her, Penne will be looking to constantly engage in the clinch, so putting up a huge striking total could be more difficult. Kowalkiewicz has also lost four straight and failed to land above 90 significant strikes in any of those, so it’s been over three years since she last won and/or landed above 90 significant strikes. That will likely leave Kowalkiewicz reliant on getting a finish to really go off. The odds imply she has a 56% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish and a4% chance it comes in R1.

Penne has never won a striking battle, so she’s entirely reliant on grappling to score well. Therefore she inherently makes for a better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel the longer this fight goes. Still, she’s only scored above 69 DraftKings points in one of her five UFC fights, which came in a grappling heavy decision all the way back in 2014 when she scored 94 points against Markos. She’ll need a finish to score well on FanDuel, and either a finish or a dominating grappling performance on DraftKings. Her 18% takedown accuracy in her five UFC fights doesn’t bode well going against the 75% takedown defense of Kowalkiewicz, but Kowalkiewicz was notably takedown down five times in her last fight and is now coming off an 18 month layoff, so who knows. Most likely you’re relying on Penne to land a submission here for her to really score well. The odds imply she has a 44% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #8

Alonzo Menifield

6th UFC Fight (3-2)

Coming off the second submission win of his career, Menifield notched his 8th first round finish, while his only other two career wins came by knockout in the first 32 seconds of the second round. His two career losses both occurred in his last three fights, with a 2020 R2 KO loss to OSP and a 2020 decision loss to Devin Clark. He has eight career KO wins to go along with the pair of submission victories.

Prior to those two losses, Menifield won his first nine fights as a pro, including R1 KO wins over a couple of grapplers in Paul Craig and Vinicius Moreira in his first two UFC matches after landing another R1 KO just eight seconds into a 2018 DWCS fight to punch his ticket to the UFC.

Menifield is a former college, CFL and Arena League football player. His explosive power is evident, but he has struggled with cardio later in fights and at times gets controlled too easily in the clinch.

Menifield does have an 85% takedown defense, including defending 9 of Clark’s 10 attempts. So while he’s struggled at times to break out of the clinch, he’s done a good job of staying on his feet.

Ed Herman

26th UFC Fight (13-11, NC)

Herman had been scheduled to fight Danilo Marques back in June but withdrew from the fight, which was the 6th time in his last seven scheduled matches that a fight has fallen through. Now 40 years old with 41 pro fights under his belt, Herman’s days appeared numbered in the UFC. While he’s technically on a three fight winning streak, he should have lost his last fight by R2 TKO had it not been for a referee error. Had that been correctly called, Herman would be 2-4 in his last six fights, with the two wins coming against Patrick Cummins, who lost his last three and five of his last seven UFC fights before retiring after the loss to Herman, and Khadis Ibragimov, who went 0-4 in the UFC.

In his recent R3 submission robbery over Mike Rodriguez, Herman was outlanded 89-40 in significant strikes and 114-51 in total strikes. Herman went 2 for 4 on takedown attempts with over four minutes of control time, while Rodriguez went 0 for 1 with over three minutes of control time. Rodriguez clearly landed a knee to the body of Ed Herman in the second round that crumpled Herman to the mat, but as Rodriguez went in to finish him on the ground, the ref stopped the action and called time to Rodriguez’s bewilderment. Despite the knee landing clearly to the chest of Herman, the ref deemed it a low blow and allowed Herman multiple minutes to recover. So in reality, that should have been a R2 KO win for Rodriguez. Herman looked dangerously close to being finished at two other points following that, but was able to survive and land a hail mary Kimura on Rodriguez in the third round. It also looked like Herman hooked his toes in the cage to help him set up the submission, so really just an all around shady performance from the old grifter.

Herman is now 26-14 plus a No Contest as a pro, with 21 of his 26 wins coming early, including seven KOs and 14 submissions. Prior to his recent R3 submission victory, he hadn’t submitted an opponent since 2012. Nine of his 14 losses have also come early, with three KOs and six submissions and nine of his last 11 fights have made it out of the first round, with seven of those making it to the third round and six going the distance.

Fight Prediction:

Herman will have a 1” height and reach advantage, but Menifield is seven years younger than the 40-year-old Herman.

We expect Menifield to come out firing and for Herman to look to engage in the clinch, where he generally does his best work throwing elbows and making fights ugly. Herman has been somewhat durable and has only been knocked out once in the first round in 41 pro fights. With that said, he’s now 40 years old and looked to be wobbled in the first round of his last fight before essentially getting finished in the second before the ref saved him. So we wouldn’t be surprised to see Menifield land a knockout in the first six minutes. However, if the fight makes it to the second half, Herman could wear Menifield out and potentially steal a close decision with large amounts of time spent in the clinch.

The only bets we’re considering here are Menifield’s R1 and R2 lines at +200 and +430, as well as “Herman Wins by Decision” at +460.

DFS Implications:

Menefield is your prototypical R1 or bust fighter, who is habitually over owned in DFS. While he always has a great chance to land a first round finish, the field’s exposure always overshoots that number, which makes it hard to ever be excited about playing him in tournaments. All 10 of his career finishes have come in 5:32 or less and he’s lost both of his fights to make it past that mark. Herman does have three career TKO losses, with all three coming in the first six minutes of fights and he’s now 40 years old, but he’s generally been somewhat durable and will likely look to tie Menifield up in the clinch. If Herman can simply survive the first round and the opening minute of round two, he has the strong potential to wear Menifield down and take over the fight. Menifield has also notably scored just 98 and 96 DraftKings points in his last two R1 wins as he failed to land a knockdown in either of those. So even with a R1 win he’s not guaranteed to end up in winning lineups at this price. He should score better on FanDuel based on his fighting style and the fact that he has a good chance to tack on a few takedowns defended, with his 85% takedown defense against the 48% takedown accuracy of Herman, who averages five takedown attempts per 15 minutes but only lands 2.2 of those on average. Keeping in mind that Menifield needs an early finish to score well, the odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 53% chance to get a finish and a 27% chance it comes in R1.

Herman’s last five wins have returned DraftKings scores of 86, 75, 105, 101 and 66. Two of those went the distance and he failed to top 75 DK points in either. He also scored just 86 points in his recent third round submission win so he looks more reliant on landing a finish in the first two rounds to put up a decent score. At his cheap price tag, it is possible he serves as a value play simply by winning a decision depending on what the other dogs do, but it would take all the other cheap plays failing for that to work out. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #7

Drako Rodriguez

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Drako’s first UFC weigh-in couldn’t have gone much worse as he missed weight by 4.5 lb and then left all of his clothes behind in a pile on the stage as he walked away in shame. It will be important to monitor how he looks on Friday, considering he fights at 135 lb, but started his career at 155 lb in 2017, before dropping down to Bantamweight (135 lb) in 2018. Still just 25 years old, we’re not entirely ready to give up on this kid just yet despite his dreadful start with the organization, but if he looks bad again we will be and our current excitement levels are lukewarm at best. After losing on the scales, Drako got knocked out in the first round of his debut by a previously unimpressive Aiemann Zahabi, who was coming off a pair of losses, including a decision to Vince Morales, as well as nearly a two year layoff.

Leading up to his recent nightmare UFC debut, Rodriguez landed a R1 submission win on DWCS in September 2020 to crack the UFC roster. We only saw a total of eight significant strikes landed in the fight, as it quickly ended up on the ground within the first minute, so it was hard to take away much from Drako’s striking game.

Prior to his DWCS appearance, Drako had seven pro fights with the King of the Cage promotion since he began his MMA career in 2017. Drako is now 7-2 as a pro, with only one of his nine fights making it to the judges and six ending in the first round. He has two wins by KO, four by submission and one decision. Both of his losses came by KO, both against fighters who are currently in the UFC. Other than his recent R1 KO loss, Drako was knocked out by Tony Gravely in the 5th round of a 2018 fight.

Rodriguez has fought anywhere between 135 lb to 155 lb in his career, but his last six fights have been at 135 lb. While the 24-year-old Rodriguez only has eight pro fights on his record, he did have an extensive amateur career where he went 10-0 before turning pro.

Vince Morales

5th UFC Fight (1-3)

Coming off a rare TKO loss by Leg Strikes, Morales was violently chopped down by Chris Gutierrez for nearly two rounds before he could no longer stand and the fight was stopped late in round two. Gutierrez landed 36 leg strikes in the fight as he averaged an absurd 3.81 leg strikes landed per minute and was on pace to land 57 had the fight gone the distance. Morales was never able to get anything going in the match and finished behind in striking 60-8.

Prior to that, Morales lost a close decision to Benito Lopez, who also relentlessly attacked Morales’ legs as Lopez landed 39 leg strikes over the course of three rounds (2.60/min). Morales led in significant strikes 64-54 and in total strikes 67-54 and dropped Lopez in the first round, while also outstriking him in round three, but all three judges ruled it 29-28 in favor of Lopez.

Morales’ only UFC win came in a low-volume decision over Aiemann Zahabi, who recently knocked out Drako Rodriguez in his next fight. Morales led in significant strikes 59-28, while Zahabi went 1 for 5 on his takedown attempts. That was Morales’ second fight with the UFC after he lost his debut against a really tough Song Yadong back in 2018.

Morales originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2018, but was submitted in the second round by Domingo Pilarte, who has since gone 0-2 in the UFC—although one of those was later overturned to a No Contest for a positive THC test. Morales then won a decision in Bellator before getting the call up in 2018 against Yadong.

While four of Morales’ last five fights have gone the distance, seven of his nine pro wins have come early, with five KOs and two submissions. His first nine fights all ended early (7-2) and he’s been submitted twice in his career (2015 R2 Armbar & 2018 R2 Rear-Naked Choke) in addition to his recent TKO loss by leg strikes. His other two career losses both came in the UFC via decision.

In a recent interview, Morales discussed how he fractured his orbital in the loss to Gutierrez and then tore his Achilles in August 2020 shortly after getting back into training. So after not being able to resume training until early 2021, Morales now hasn’t fought in nearly 15 months since May of 2020. Over that time he relocated to Vegas and switched teams to Syndicate MMA. So there have been a lot of changes since we last saw him. He also talked about how he’s focused on checking leg strikes opposed to walking through them—a novel concept after absorbing a total of 75 in his last two fights. He also mentioned that he’ll have his cousin Ricky Simon in his corner for this fight.

Morales is primarily a striker and hasn’t even attempted a takedown in the UFC or in his DWCS fight. He lands an average of 4.22 SS/min, while absorbing 4.16/min. On a two fight losing streak and sitting at 1-3 in the UFC, Morales’ is likely fighting for his job in the UFC here and will need a strong performance to stick around.

Fight Prediction:

Drako will have a 1” height advantage, but Morales will have a 1” reach advantage.

While it’s tough to take away many positives from Drako’s recent R1 KO loss, he did land four leg kicks in just over three minutes of action. Morales has looked incredibly susceptible to leg strikes as he suffered the rare TKO by Leg Strikes in his last fight, and has absorbed a ridiculous 75 leg strikes in his last two fights (36 & 39). Drako has also proven himself to be more of a submission threat than Morales, so there are a couple of ways he could approach this fight. On the other side of things, Morales looks to have quicker hands than Drako and also has far more experience in the UFC. If Morales can keep the fight standing, he has the ability to catch Drako with something clean and land a knockout, but he could be in trouble if the fight hits the mat. Both of these guys have failed to impress so far at the UFC level, so it’s hard to be confident in either one of them, but we expect this will end with either a Morales’ KO win, a Drako submission victory or in a close decision. Considering this card is taking place in Houston, if it goes to a decision, you might as well have a donkey pick which color corner wins by stepping on a Twister mat.

Our favorite two bets here are “Drako Wins by Submission” at +500 and “Morales Wins by KO” at +380.

DFS Implications:

With only one of his nine pro fights making it to the judges, Drako’s fights have a history of ending early. His last three early wins have all come by submission, while his only two career losses both ended in knockouts. There’s a good chance one of those two streaks continues as Drako’s opponent, Vince Morales, has notched the majority of his pro wins by KO, but has also been submitted in two of his five career losses. So at least on paper these two mesh well for someone to get a finish. With that said, four of Morale’s last five fights have ended in uneventful decisions and he’s yet to prove himself at the UFC level. Drako has yet to show he belongs either, after he was knocked out midway through the first round in his debut. If he comes back from that with a more conservative gameplan, as many fighters do following KO losses, we could be looking at a letdown overall in this fight. With Drako still more or less of an unknown and Morales’ coming off a 15 month layoff, this looks like a high-variance spot with a wide range of outcomes. That makes it tricky for DFS, but neither guy projects to be too highly owned so you’ll want exposure to each. The odds imply Drako has a 51% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in R1.

Morales has clearly demonstrated an inability to score well in decisions with DraftKings scores of 37, 54 and 32 in his three UFC fights that have gone the distance. He has decent, albeit unspectacular hands, but doesn’t mix in any grappling and is a one-dimensional striker. Even at his cheaper price tag, he’ll be entirely reliant on landing a knockout to return value. With that said, Drako’s standup game looked to have many holes in it in his recent R1 KO loss to Aiemann Zahabi, who is the one person Morales has defeated in four UFC fights. Morales’ pathetic DFS scoresheet should keep his ownership low, and this actually looks like a decent spot for him to put up a ceiling performance. There are a lot of variables in play, so keep in mind he switched camps to Syndicate MMA following his last fight, is coming back from an Achilles tear, hasn’t fought in 15 months, and could be fighting for his job in the UFC after starting 1-3. The odds imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #6

Rafael Fiziev

5th UFC Fight (3-1)

Coming off a R1 TKO win over Renato Moicano in December 2020, Fiziev showcased his crisp, violent striking as he picked Moicano apart for four minutes before dropping him with a perfect combination of punches to get the fight stopped late in R1. Moicano protested the stoppage immediately, but looked to be badly hurt. The fight ended with Fiziev ahead in strikes 21-15 and with both fighters each failing on their only takedown attempt.

After getting knocked out 86 seconds into the first round of his 2019 UFC debut against Magomed Mustafaev, Fiziev bounced back with two lopsided decision wins in his next two fights.

Still only 28 years old, Fiziev has just 10 pro fights to his name, but owns an impressive 9-1 record with only two of his fights requiring the judges. He has six wins by KO and one by submission to go along with his two decision victories. Prior to joining the UFC he was 6-0 with all six wins coming early—including five in R1 and one in R2. His lone submission win came in a 2016 R1 Rear-Naked Choke in his second pro fight.

A coach at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand, Fiziev’s Muay Thai background is evident when you watch his violent leg strikes as well as his exceptional balance. Made famous for his Matrix style maneuvers, which he uses to dodge head kicks in exciting fashion, this guy definitely has a future hustling the Limbo circuit if fighting doesn’t work out for him. He’s also now successfully defended all 15 of the takedowns attempted against him in the UFC. There were no attempts in his brief debut, before Alex White went 0 for 11 and Diakiese followed that up with an 0 for 4 performance. Moicano then went 0 for 1 in his last fight.

As is often the case with Muay Thai fighters, Fiziev doesn’t add much in the ground game, but he did land one takedown in two of his four UFC fights.

Bobby Green

16th UFC Fight (8-6-1)

Green had been scheduled to face Jim Miller back in February, but the fight was scratched after Green went through a very difficult weight cut and collapsed backstage shortly after weighing in.

Green has fought 10 times since a 2014 decision loss to Edson Barboza. Amazingly, four of those ten fights happened in a four month window during the Summer and Fall of 2020. However, it’s now been 10 months since Green last competed and he’s coming off his first loss in his last four fights. Despite outlanding Thiago Moises 85-42 in significant strikes, and matching him on takedowns with two, Green lost a unanimous 28-29 decision and seemed genuinely shocked.

Green is 27-11-1 as a pro with nine KOs and eight submission victories to go along with 10 decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and submitted twice in his career, while losing seven decisions. However, Green’s last nine fights and 12 of his last 13 have all gone the distance. So while several of Green’s fights ended with finishes earlier in his career, he’s turned into an absolute decision machine over the last decade. The only time he’s been finished since 2010 came in a R1 KO loss to Dustin Poirier back in 2016. And on the other side of things, the last time Bobby finished anybody was in 2013 when he knocked out James Krause in the first round. His hands-by-his-side fighting style provides a unique look for opponents and makes him a tough guy to know how to attack.

Fight Prediction:

Green will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 71” reach.

It’s always a good bet that Green’s fights will go the distance, as his last nine and 12 of his last 13 matches have ended with the judges. However, he’ll now be going against one of the most dangerous strikers he’s seen in a while, so there’s a greater chance than normal that this one ends early. Fiziev will hold the advantage in speed, power and technique, but Green does have the edge in experience with 39 pro fights under his belt to Fiziev’s 10. Green has also landed at least one takedown in his last eight fights and has landed nine in his last three matches, so we could potentially see Green look to take this fight to the ground. However, Fiziev has successfully defended all 16 takedowns attempted on him so far in the UFC and Green has just a 41% career takedown accuracy, so it’s still more likely this fight plays out entirely on the feet. Green’s hands down striking defense could be a problem for him against a fighter like Fiziev who throws incredibly quick and powerful lead leg head kicks. Seeing Fiziev finish a punching combination with a left leg head kick to drop Green wouldn’t be surprising, but there’s also a good chance this one goes the distance.

We’re taking a few stabs at Fiziev’s R1 and R2 KO lines at +500 and +750, but there’s also a decent chance he wins a decision here. However, with his decision line at +130 and the judging notoriously terrible in Houston, we’re not really interested in betting that. It is worth considering Green’s decision line at +420 simply as a value play though.

DFS Implications:

Fiziev lands an above average amount of volume, but doesn’t really offer much in terms of grappling so he’s still reliant on landing a finish to score well. His two decision wins returned scores of just 72 and 66, further supporting that idea, but he did score 109 DraftKings points and 128 points on FanDuel in his recent R1 KO win. This definitely isn’t an easy spot for Fiziev to land a finish, as Green has only been stopped inside the distance once since 2010, which came in a R1 KO loss at the hands of Dustin Poirier. That’s the only time in his last 21 fights that anyone has finished him. With that said, Fiziev could be the perfect opponent to make Green pay for his hands-by-his-side striking defense so a finish is still entirely possible. The odds imply Fiziev has a 72% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.

With almost all of his fights ending in decisions, Green has only scored above 100 DraftKings points once in his last 10 fights. Green did put up an impressive 111 point DraftKings total against Vannata in a wild brawling decision last August, and still scored 98 and 95 DraftKings points in two of his other most recent three decisions, but also scored just 77 points against Clay Guida. Had the decision loss to Moises gone his way—which looking at the stats it arguably could have—Green would have scored 83 points. So Green does have a decent floor and at his cheap price could allow him to serve as a value play if he somehow wins a decision here. He averages 5.17 SSL/min to Fiziev’s 4.67 and is also the more active grappler, so the idea that he pulls off the upset here is not entirely crazy, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the Houston judging. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish and a 4% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #5

Casey Kenney

8th UFC Fight (5-2)

After winning five of his first six UFC fights, Kenney will look to bounce back from a split-decision loss to Dominick Cruz. In typical fashion, one judge ruled it 30-27 in favor of Cruz, while another scored it 28-29 for Kenney. Cruz led in significant strikes 89-74 and in total strikes 115-74, while also landing 2 takedowns on 9 attempts to Kenney’s 0 for 2.

That was Kenney’s second straight close decision where he came out behind in the striking battle, although he still got the nod in his previous effort when he narrowly beat Nathaniel Wood in a close/questionable decision. That striking explosion saw Wood outland Kenney 136-123 in significant strikes and 138-125 in total strikes, but Kenney did land two takedowns on six attempts, while Wood went 0 for 3. Kenney notably also fought just three weeks prior to that match in a decision win over Heili Alateng. Kenney viciously attacked Heili with leg strikes throughout the fight, but was 0 for 1 on his takedown attempts.

Kenney started 2020 off with a decision loss against Merab Dvalishvili, who landed a Merabish 12 takedowns on him. Kenney bounced back with his lone UFC finish in a R1 submission win over Louis Smolka in May 2020, which is the only one of Kenney’s seven UFC fights to end early.

In his UFC debut back in 2019, Kenney was gifted a highly questionable decision over Ray Borg. To his credit, Kenney took that fight on just 6 days notice and then Ray Borg missed weight. However, Borg controlled the entire fight and landed 7 of 10 takedowns while Kenney was 2 for 2. We didn’t see a lot of strikes landed, but Kenney did win in that department, outlanding Borg 32-17.

Kenney’s second UFC fight came against a much larger Manny Bermudez in a catchweight fight. Kenney was able to edge out the striking advantage 43-37 in another grappling heavy match where Bermudez landed 3 of 4 takedowns, while Kenney again went 2 for 2.

Kenney started his career fighting at 125 lb until he moved up to 135 lb in 2019, one fight before joining the UFC. Twelve of Kenney’s last 14 fights have notably ended in decisions, with the only exceptions being a R1 LFA KO win over Vince Cachero and the R1 submission win over Louis Smolka. Kenney is now 16-3-1 as a pro, with two career KO wins, five submissions and nine decision victories. All three of his career losses have ended in decisions and he’s never been finished.

Song Yadong

8th UFC Fight (5-1-1)

Coming off his first loss in the UFC and first overall since 2016, Yadong lost a unanimous 28-29 decision to Kyler Phillips back in March after going 8-0-1 in his previous nine fights. Yadong actually finished ahead in significant strikes 67-59 and in total strikes 89-69, but Phillips landed 3 of 5 takedown attempts and led in strikes in the first round.

Now 16-5-1 as a pro, 9 of Yadong’s 16 wins have come early, with six KOs and three submissions. In his 22 pro fights, the only time Yadong has ever been finished came in a 2016 R2 knockout, which was fought at Featherweight (145 lb) prior to joining the UFC. He has competed at both 135 lb and 145 lb throughout his career, but five of his seven UFC fights have been down at 135 lb. So far in the UFC, he’s 2-0 with one win by submission at 145 lb and 3-1-1 at 135 lb with two knockout victories. After winning three of his first four UFC fights early, his last three fights have all ended in close decisions.

Yadong made his 2017 short notice UFC debut in his home country of China as the youngest fighter on the roster at just 19 years old. However, you wouldn’t have guessed it from his performance as he submitted Bharat Khandare with a R1 Guillotine Choke. For what it’s worth, that was the third time Khandare has been submitted in just eight pro fights and he’s been choked out in the first round of his last two matches. Yadong knocked Khandare down with a stiff right hand and then locked in a Guillotine as he attempted to get back up.

He followed up the impressive win with a R2 KO of Felipe Arantes, who was coming off a pair of decision losses, but had previously never been knocked out in 28 pro fights. Yadong landed both a takedown and a knockdown in that match and was able to exert heavy top pressure and vicious ground and pound. He finished the fight with just one second remaining in the second round with a sharp elbow out of the clinch. He ended up with over six minutes of control time in the match.

Yadong then took on Vince Morales, who he defeated in a unanimous 30-27 decision. Next, in 2019 Yadong took on an experienced UFC veteran in #13 ranked Alejandro Perez who came into the fight with a 7-2-1 UFC record and having not been finished since 2015. Yadong knocked Perez out in just 124 seconds.

Following his second first round finish in four UFC fights, Yadong was matched up with his toughest opponent to date in #9 ranked Cody Stamann. The two top competitors ended up fighting to a draw after Yadong was deducted a point for landing an illegal knee in the first round. Stamann landed five takedowns on 12 attempts and looked like he should have had the decision go his way.

Then Yadong moved back up to 145 lb for just the second time in the UFC for a short notice booking and won a very close decision over Marlon Vera, who clearly disagreed with the judges result. Yadong landed a career high 101 significant strikes that match, while also absorbing a career high of 92.

Yadong’s entire life has been dedicated to the pursuit of martial arts. He started intense training at just 9 years old when he left his family to go train with the Shaolin Monks. By the age of 12 he was already winning championships and he went pro at just 16. He’s an excellent striker with very fast hands, but doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling. In his last three fights, he’s been taken down a combined 10 times while failing to land any takedowns of his own on just one attempt. He managed to go his first four UFC fights without ever being taken down, albeit on just three attempts from his opponents, but as he’s faced tougher competition they’ve done a better job of attacking him on the mat.

Fight Prediction:

Kenney will have a 1” height advantage, but Yadong will have a 1” reach advantage.

Despite Kenney’s grappling background, he insists on proving that he can compete in striking battles, so it will be interesting to see how many takedowns he actually attempts here. Kenney has a history of stealing decisions and Houston has a history of terrible judging, so prepare to be upset on this one. We expect these two to stand and trade a good amount, but for Yadong to get the best of the striking exchanges while Kenney will mix in just enough grappling to steal a scorecard or two. We like Yadong to come out ahead in striking, but for Kenney to steal a decision.

The only bet we feel good about here is that the “Fight Goes the Distance” at -164. You can also consider Kenney’s decision line at +175 or Yadong’s moneyline at -105, but we’re expecting lots of close/questionable decisions come Saturday.

DFS Implications:

Kenney is a decision machine who’s only scored above 82 DraftKings points in two of his five UFC victories, which came when he scored 92 points in a super high-volume decision win and 103 points in his only finish with the UFC when he submitted Louis Smolka in the first round. In his other three UFC wins, Kenney has scored 74, 74, and 82 DK points. He did finish with 115 FanDuel points in that high-volume decision win and 127 FanDuel points in his first round finish, but similarly struggled to score well in his other three wins on either DFS site. He’s had essentially all of the close decisions go his way since joining the UFC, so you can either argue that he’s good at winning close fights or is due for some negative regression to come his way. We expect to see decent striking totals here and Kenney has the potential to tack on a couple of takedowns, but he’s unlikely to really score well without a finish, which appears very unlikely considering 12 of his last 14 fights have gone the distance and Yadong has only been finished once in 22 pro matches. The best you can really hope for is another high-volume decision win for Kenney and we would be shocked to see a ceiling performance out of him. Based on the pricing and the potential for grappling, Kenney looks like a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

After starting his UFC career off hot with three finishes in the first two rounds in his first four fights, Yadong has now fought to three straight low scoring decisions. While he showed an ability to finish lower level opponents in the UFC, he’s been unable to continue that as he’s climbed the ranks and is now habitually in close decisions where he spends some amount of time on his back. With zero takedowns of his own in his last four matches and generally struggling to put up big striking totals, Yadong is reliant on a finish to score well and now gets an opponent who’s never been finished in 20 pro fights. We definitely give the power advantage in this matchup to Yadong, so if anyone gets a finish we would expect it to be him, but this fight appears destined to end in a lower scoring decision while carrying a decent amount of ownership. We understand liking Yadong as a value play, but it’s hard to see him really scoring well barring an unlikely finish, so this looks like a decent spot to fade the fight in tournaments. We expect this to be a better real life fight than for DFS purposes and the winner will likely have a decent floor but no real ceiling. We could see Yadong serving as a value play on FanDuel based on his pricing. The odds imply Yadong has a 47% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #4

Tecia Torres

14th UFC Fight (8-5)

This is a rematch of a 2015 fight, which Torres won in a decision. This rematch was originally scheduled for December 2020, but Hill tested positive for COVID and Sam Hughes stepped in on short notice.

When these two originally squared off back in 2015, Torres was going into her 6th pro fight and 2nd UFC fight, while Hill was entering her third pro fight, and her second fight in the UFC. While Torres has generally been more of a striker than a grappler, she went 2 for 12 on takedowns against Hill, while amassing over nine minutes of control time as she controlled Hill on the ground for essentially the entire first two rounds. We didn’t see a ton of strikes landed in the match, with Torres finishing ahead in significant strikes 32-27 and in total strikes 86-66. One thing to note with that matchup is that it took place at altitude in Mexico City and Hill looked to be struggling some late in the fight as she was breathing really heavily leading up to the third round.

Torres is now coming off the first TKO win of her career and she really has Angela Hill to thank for that as Hill dropping out of that fight propelled an under prepared Sam Hughes into that massacre. Prior to that, Torres had fought to six straight decisions and had only seen one of her previous 16 career fights end early, which came in a 2017 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission Win against Juliana Lima. Torres is now 12-5 as a pro, with one TKO win, one submission win and 10 decision wins. All five of her pro losses ended in decisions.

Prior to her recent R1 TKO win, Torres beat a promising prospect in Brianna Van Buren, who came in on a six fight winning streak. Torres outlanded Van Buren 74-34 in significant strikes, while successfully defending 5 of Van Buren’s 7 takedown attempts. Torres was 0 for 3 on her own attempts. That win ended a four fight losing streak after Torres lost decisions to Jessica Andrade, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Weili Zhang and Marina Rodriguez from 2018 to 2019. Torres’ only other UFC loss came in a 2016 decision against Rose Namajunas, so four of her five UFC losses have come against current or former champions.

Angela Hill

18th UFC Fight (8-9)

Coming off a decision win in another rematch from earlier in her career, Hill notched her second career decision victory over Ashley Yoder in her last trip to the Octagon. She won a unanimous 30-27 decision as she outlanded Yoder 77-34 in significant strikes and 97-53 in total strikes. Hill also went 1 for 3 on takedowns with nearly four minutes of control time, while stuffing 4 of Yoder’s 6 attempts.

Prior to that win, Hill lost a pair of split-decisions to Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson in fights that easily could have gone her way with the judges. Thirteen of her 17 UFC fights have gone the distance, with the four exceptions being a 2015 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss to Rose Namajunas, a 2019 R1 Armbar Submission loss to Randa Markos, a 2019 R3 doctor stoppage TKO win against Ariane Carnelossi and a 2020 R2 KO win over Hannah Cifers.

Hill originally joined the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in just her second pro fight. However, after winning a decision in her 2014 debut she lost back-to-back fights against Tecia Torres and Rose Namajunas and was then released by the UFC following her 2015 submission loss. She then went on to win four fights in a row in Invicta, including a pair of knockouts in the first two rounds. At that point, she was re-signed by the UFC in 2017, where she fought to five straight decisions upon her return, alternating losses and wins. Hill then suffered what is just her second early loss in her career with another R1 submission, this time from an Armbar against Randa Markos.

Now 13-9 as a pro, five of Hill’s 13 wins have come by KO, while eight have been by decision. Only one of her five KO victories occurred in the first round and that was back in 2016 with Invicta. Three of her knockouts have come in R2. On the other side of things, she’s never been knocked out, but she has been submitted twice.

Fight Prediction:

Hill will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, but Torres is five years younger than the 36-year-old Hill.

We’re expecting a striking battle here, although the same could have been said going into their first fight back in 2015 and Torres put on a smothering grappling performance. However it plays out, we will be shocked if it doesn’t end in a decision. The tougher outcome to determine is who wins? If Hill can keep the fight entirely on the feet, we think this is a coinflip and either lady could win. However, if Torres can take her down then that will likely be the tiebreaker with the judges.

The only bets we’re considering are the two ladies’ decision lines. Considering how poorly Hill has fared with the judges throughout her career, we can see an argument for taking Torres’ side here, but in a fight we think will be close, it also makes sense to take the longer odds on Hill. Or you can just pass on this one or consider the gross -340 FGTD line. Overall, there’s not much to get excited about from a betting perspective if you’re looking for decent returns.

DFS Implications:

Torres scored just 80 DraftKings points and 51 points on FanDuel in her 2015 grappling-heavy decision win over Hill, but we’re expecting to see this fight play out far more on the feet. However, even if it does play out as a striking battle, Torres will have a tough time returning value in DFS at her high price tag. She’s failed to top 92 DraftKings points in her nine fights leading up to her recent TKO win, as she scored 71, 92, and 81 in her last three decision wins. So for Torres to be useful in this spot, you’ll need her to either get a finish or absolutely dominate Hill, both of which appear unlikely. The odds imply Torres has a 56% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.

Hill throws a decent amount of striking volume, but has never landed more than one takedown in her 17 UFC fights. She scored 77/84, 64/60 and 77/99 DK/FD points in her last three decision wins and has only topped 84 DraftKings points in one of her last 10 fights. She could potentially still serve as a value play if the other cheap options around her fail, but it’s hard to see her hitting any sort of ceiling without a finish. She’s a little more interesting on FanDuel, which is a better fit for her striking heavy fighting style and she could also boost her score with takedowns defended. Remember, Torres went 2 for 12 on takedowns the first time these two fought. The odds imply Hill has a 44% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #3

Vicente Luque

17th UFC Fight (13-3)

Continuing to be extremely impressive, Luque is coming off a first round submission win to send Tyron Woodley off into retirement, at least from the UFC. Woodley immediately looked to grapple with Luque, who was able to keep the fight standing and didn’t panic. Woodley landed a few good punches early, but Luque hurt him badly with a clean right hand just three minutes in that left Woodley looking like he just went blind from drinking moonshine. As Woodley desperately flailed in the darkness, his momentum carried him to the mat and Luque locked up a Brabo Choke to finish the fight. That was the first time Woodley has ever been submitted in 27 pro fights, but the 7th career submission win for Luque, with the last three all coming by Brabo Choke, which seems to be his go to move.

Since losing a decision to Leon Edwards in 2017, Luque has won 9 of his last 10 fights with the only loss over that period coming in a three-round decision against Stephen Thompson. The only other loss Luque has suffered in the UFC also came in a decision, which occurred in his 2015 UFC debut against Michael Graves. Of Luque’s 13 UFC wins, 12 have come early, with eight KOs and four submissions. His only UFC decision win came against Mike Perry in 2019. Five of Luque’s UFC knockouts have occurred in the first round, one ended in round two and two came in round three. His four submission wins have been evenly spread out across the first two rounds.

Luque bounced back from the loss in his UFC debut with four straight finishes including three in the first round. Then he lost a 2017 decision to Leon Edwards, but again bounced back, this time with six straight wins, including five finishes with three in the first round. His lone decision win over that period came against Mike Perry, who’s been notoriously tough to finish with just one KO loss in his career and one by submission. Following the decision win against Perry, Luque lost a decision to Stephen Thompson. Again, Luque bounced back with his recent three finishes, including a third round TKO against Niko Price, a second round KO against Randy Brown and the recent submission win over Woodley.

Of Luque’s 20 pro wins, 18 have come early, with 11 KOs and 7 submissions. He’s never been knocked out in his career, but he has been submitted twice—although not since 2013. His two submission losses were a 2010 R3 Triangle Armbar in his third pro fight and a 2013 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke two fights before joining the UFC. He’s also lost five decisions in his career.

Luque is a powerful high-volume striker who leads the slate with an average of 5.74 SSL/min and absorbs the second highest number at 5.78 SSA/min. He rarely lands takedowns, with zero in his last 10 fights, but he has impressively landed at least one knockdown in 9 of his last 11 wins. And he’s only been knocked down twice himself in his 16 UFC fights.

Looking more closely at his takedown defense, Luque was taken down 7 times on 10 attempts in his 2015 UFC debut, but since then has successfully defended 22 of his opponents’ 28 attempts against him (79%). So his listed 65% takedown defense has been rising ever since his UFC debut and he’s only been taken down three total times in his last 10 fights, with none of those opponents getting him down more than once. We should point out that while Luque has only been taken down more than once twice in the UFC, he lost decisions in both of those fights. Leon Edwards went 3 for 12 on takedowns back in 2017 after Michael Graves went 7 for 10 in Luque’s 2015 UFC debut.

Michael Chiesa

16th UFC Fight (11-4)

Looking to keep his momentum going in the Welterweight division (170 lb), Chiesa is 4-0 since moving up from Lightweight (155 lb) in 2018 following a pair of submission losses. He spent the first 10 years of his pro career down at 155 lb. Since making the switch, he has a 2018 R2 submission win over Carlos Condit, a 2019 three-round decision win over Diego Sanchez, a 2020 three-round decision win over Rafael dos Anjos and a 2021 five-round decision over Neil Magny.

In his recent five-round smothering decision win over Magny in January 2021, we saw just 36 combined significant strikes landed across 25 minutes of grueling grappling, with Chiesa finishing ahead 24-12. He did better on the ground, finishing ahead 93-52 in total strikes, while landing 4 of 6 takedowns and over 15 minutes of control time, but he never really threatened with any submissions. It took him three minutes into the first round before he shot for a takedown, which he landed and then spent the rest of the round in top position. He cruised to a unanimous 49-46 decision win from that point on.

Chiesa is a pure grappler and submission specialist, who’s never been involved in a high-volume striking affair. He’s landed 19 takedowns on 25 attempts in his last four fights since moving up a weight class, which is good for a 76% accuracy rate, up from his 68% overall career accuracy.

Prior to just 36 combined significant strikes being landed in his recent five round fight, we saw just 23 combined significant strikes landed in Chiesa’s previous three-round decision over Rafael Dos Anjos. Chiesa smothered RDA (58% career takedown defense) for the duration of the 15 minute fight with 10 minutes of control time and only used his striking to set up takedowns, which he landed six of on eight attempts.

In his third most recent fight, Chiesa had essentially the same results, although he landed more significant strikes tallying 47 to Sanchez’s meager 7. Chiesa amassed a ridiculous 12 minutes of control time in that 15 minute fight against Sanchez (46% career takedown defense).

In his first fight at 170 lb back in 2018, Chiesa submitted Carlos Condit (39% career takedown defense) a minute into the second round with a Kimura that he somehow finished with one hand. In what was another prime example of how few strikes Chiesa generally lands, he finished with 16 total strikes landed, and just 10 significant. However, he landed four takedowns and over four minutes of control time in the six minute fight.

Chiesa pumps out his jab in space as a range finder, but really doesn’t offer much on the feet and is a one-dimensional grappler who averages just 1.89 SSL/min and 1.71 SSA/min. However, he leads this card in takedowns at 3.6 landed per 15 minutes. Only one fighter has ever landed above 27 significant strikes on Chiesa in his 15 UFC fights, which was Mitch Clarke who landed 65 but still lost a three round decision to Chiesa.

Fight Prediction:

Chiesa will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 75” reach.

Luque has interestingly never won a fight where he was taken down more than once and clearly is most dangerous on his feet. While he does have seven career submission wins, all of his UFC Submission victories have come from offensive techniques that he uses to finish compromised opponents opposed to defensive submissions off his back. So if Chiesa can take Luque down he shouldn’t really be in much danger of being submitted. While Chiesa stands no chance in a striking battle with Luque, similarly Luque can’t win this fight if Chiesa is able to consistently get him down. That’s where things get interesting as Luque has shown a solid 79% takedown defense since his UFC debut where he struggled to stay upright, and Chiesa has owned a legit 76% takedown accuracy since moving up to 170 lb. We’d be surprised if either man is able to completely shut the other down so we do expect Chiesa to find some level of success at taking Luque to the mat. That should limit Luque’s opportunities to finish Chiesa on the feet and will require him to make the most of the opportunities he gets. We expect Chiesa to work towards a grappling heavy decision win or to get finished trying, but there is also the chance Chiesa can land a submission. Luque is one of the most dangerous finishers in the UFC, but this is not an ideal spot for his brawling fighting style. We still like his chances to win this one early, but if his back hits the mat more than once we’re switching our pick to Chiesa winning by decision.

Our favorite three bets here are “Luque ITD” at +200, “Chiesa Wins by Decision” at +220 and “Fight Ends in Submission” at +460. There are also several dart throw round props you can consider with our favorites being “Luque Wins in R1” at +500, “Fight Ends in R2” at +500 and “Fight Ends in R2 Submission” at +1600. You can also go with Luque’s R2 or R3 lines at +850 and +1000 or his R1 and R2 submission lines at +3100 and +4600 as longer shot options.

DFS Implications:

Luque has been a DFS monster with DraftKings scores of 107, 120, 108, 64, 108, 127, 117, 106 and 105 in his last nine wins, however this looks like one of the tougher matchups he could ask for to put up big striking numbers. That will leave him entirely reliant on landing a finish to score well on DraftKings, although if he wins this fight it likely means he either landed an early finish or defended numerous takedowns so his FanDuel floor is higher. While Luque has scored well with third round KOs in the past, those have all been in high-volume brawls, which we don’t expect here, so he’ll likely need a finish in the first two rounds on DraftKings to score well, while a finish at any point on FanDuel could be enough for him to return value. So overall, Luque’s finishing ability always provides a huge ceiling, but with the potential for him to get controlled on the fence or the ground for extended periods of time, he won’t have his normal volume driven floor in this fight. After opening the week as a -125 favorite, he’s also seen the line move against him where this fight is now a pick ‘em. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance it comes in R1.

Chiesa has been a major beneficiary of the new DraftKings scoring system as he racks up massive amounts of control time and now scores points off his ground strikes that generally don’t register as significant. He’s also looked great since moving up to Welterweight and has had no problem with both getting his opponents down to the ground and then dominating once there. Since his move up in weight classes he’s put up DraftKings scores of 101, 91, 110 and 103 after failing to eclipse 97 DK points in his previous six fights when he was fighting down at 155 lb. He still can’t score well on FanDuel without a finish as his recent 101 DraftKings performance scored just 64 FanDuel points. While his last three fights have ended in decisions, 11 of his 18 career wins have come by submission. When you combine that with the fact that Luque has never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice (prior to joining the UFC), the potential for Chiesa to get a finish is certainly there. However, if Chiesa is unable to get this fight to the ground Luque will absolutely destroy him on the feet. In Luque’s three UFC losses, which all ended in decisions, his opponents have put up DK/FD totals of 96/115, 80/85 and 97/78. The first set of scores there came in a high-volume striking battle against Stephen Thompson, which isn’t really relevant going into this next match, but the other two scores came in grappling heavy decisions. Overall, just keep in mind that Chiesa needs a finish to score well on FanDuel, but has consistently scored well on DraftKings in his last three decisions— albeit one of those went five rounds. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #2

Jose Aldo

18th UFC Fight (11-6)

After starting his career off going 25-1, Aldo has now gone just 4-6 in his last 10 fights, including four KO losses, beginning with his 2015 R1 KO loss to Conor McGregor. In fairness to Aldo, his four KO losses all came against current or former champions in McGregor, Holloway (twice) and Yan. Prior to those four KO losses, the only time Aldo had ever been finished in his career was a 2005 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission. He also has two career decision losses, which both occurred in his last four fights. Aldo’s last three 3-round fights all ended in decisions.

Prior to his recent three-round decision win over Vera. Aldo suffered a brutal fifth round KO loss, where the ref cold-heartedly allowed the fight to go on much longer than he needed to. Aldo laid face down on the mat, curled up in a defensive position while Petr Yan pummeled his face into the mat for what felt like minutes. The excruciatingly slow stoppage drew the ire of Dana White, while allowing Yan to rack up a ridiculous number of significant strikes.

Still just 34 years old, Aldo feels much older than he actually is, which can likely be attributed to the fact that he’s been fighting professionally since 2004—a month after his 18th birthday. With 36 pro fights under his belt, age may take a back seat to the wear and tear he’s put on his body over the years. Of his 29 career wins, he has 17 KOs, one submission and 11 decision victories.

Aldo fought his entire career at Featherweight (145 lb), before dropping down to Bantamweight (135 lb) in 2019 following a decision loss to Volkanovski. He lost his first two matches at Bantamweight before bouncing back with his first win at the new weight class in his last fight. This will be his 4th fight at Bantamweight.

Aldo averages just 3.45 SSL/min and 3.52 SSA/min. He hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 11 fights, but with an elite 91% takedown defense, he’s also only been taken down three times over that period.

Pedro Munhoz

16th UFC Fight (9-5, NC)

Coming off a decision win over a really tough Jimmie Rivera, Munhoz destroyed Rivera’s calf in the first round as he landed 20 leg strikes in the opening five minutes. He finished the fight landing 40 leg strikes and ahead in total strikes 94-65. Rivera shot for five takedowns but only landed one of them. That was Munhoz’s third straight fight to end in a decision, including a close/questionable five round decision loss to Frankie Edgar in his second most recent fight. Five of Munhoz’s last seven fights have gone the distance, with the two exceptions being a pair of back-to-back first round knockout wins against Bryan Caraway and Cody Garbrandt in 2018 and 2019.

Munhoz now owns a 19-5 pro record, with five KO wins and eight submission victories to go along with six decision wins. His last three KOs all came in the first round after the first two both occurred in the second round of his first two pro fights back in 2009. He’s known for his Guillotine Choke, which is how he’s finished his last five and six of his eight career submissions. All five of his losses have come by decision and he’s never been finished. Not counting his 2014 R1 win, which was later overturned due to a failed drug test, Munhoz has five first round wins in the UFC—three by KO and two by Guillotine Choke. Eight of his nine fights to make it out of the first round went the distance, with the one exception being a 2016 R2 Guillotine Choke Submission win.

Munhoz lands a solid amount of striking volume, averaging 5.6 SSL/min (3rd highest on the slate), while absorbing 5.87 SS/min (highest on the slate). In his last three fights (11 total rounds), he’s landed 365 significant strikes (6.64 SSL/min), while absorbing 374 (6.8 SSA/min). He hasn’t landed a takedown in his last six matches and owns an 80% takedown defense on top of his dangerous Guillotine defense.

Fight Prediction:

Aldo will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.

Munhoz has been in three straight high-volume brawls where he’s both landed and absorbed over six and half significant strikes per minute. However, in Aldo’s last three 3-round fights (all decisions), he’s landed an average of just 2.38 SS/min while absorbing 3.64 SS/min. So while there’s a chance Munhoz can force Aldo into an up-tempo striking battle, Aldo’s slower pace will likely cap the striking ceiling in this fight. We expect the two to meet somewhere in the middle and for us to see a somewhat close average volume decision here that plays out entirely on the feet. Munhoz appears to have more left in the tank, but without harping on it too much, we could see this one going either way based on the judging down in Houston. With that said, we like Munhoz to win a decision.

The safest bet is the “Fight Goes the Distance” at -158, but we also like “Munhoz Wins by Decision” at +230 or his moneyline, although it’s now been bet down from +115 to -105.

DFS Implications:

Despite holding a BJJ black belt, Aldo hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 11 fights, although he did take Marlon Vera’s back and control him for the entire third round in his last match. Nevertheless, he still scored just 60 DraftKings points in the decision win, which marked the fifth straight fight Aldo has failed to top 80 DK points in a fight. Aldo’s low striking volume and non-existent takedowns leave him reliant on a finish to score well in DFS and he still scored just 80 DraftKings points and 91 points on FanDuel in his most recent finish, which was a near worst case scenario early R2 KO without a knockdown against Renato Moicano in 2019. Even with that being somewhat flukey, Aldo is unlikely to really score well without a first round finish and is going against a veteran in Munhoz who has never been finished in 25 pro fights. We don’t really have any interest in Aldo in this spot, but he should end up going low owned (he was just 17% owned at $8,600 as a -150 favorite in his last fight), so you could make an argument for him as an overpriced contrarian tournament play in a pace up matchup. Just keep in mind, he’s only landed above 94 significant strikes once in his career, which was when he landed 102 against Chad Mendes in a five round decision. In fights that lasted three rounds or less, he’s only landed above 58 significant strikes once, which came in a brawling R3 KO loss against Max Holloway where Aldo was outlanded 174-87. The odds imply he has a 51% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.

Munhoz has only topped 81 DraftKings points in one of his last 10 fights to make it beyond the first round and that required him to land three knockdowns, 117 significant strikes, 160 total strikes and over four and half minutes of control time as he finished with 124 DraftKings points in that 2018 decision win over Brett Johns. We don’t see him repeating that here, but we suppose that can give you some reason for optimism in him returning value beyond the first round. With that said, similar to Aldo, Munhoz also likely needs a first round finish to put up a big score and an average scoring decision win is the more likely outcome. We expect Munhoz to be a very popular value play in a similar spot to his last fight when he was a +125 underdog priced at $7,900 and ended up being 37% owned on DraftKings. We successfully predicted that would be a good spot to fade to gain leverage on the field and we think that’s again the right move here. We project roughly half the field to have a piece of this fight and for it to end in another lower scoring decision. The odds have moved in Munhoz’s favor and imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #1

Ciryl Gane

7th UFC Fight (6-0)

Fresh off a pair of five-round decision wins against Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov, Gane’s meteoric rise to the top of the Heavyweight division has now positioned him one fight from a [real] title shot. In a marketing misstep, the UFC opted to put an imaginary interim title on the line in Saturday’s matchup to decide the top contender spot, but in reality they’re probably just stirring up drama because Gane and Ngganou are far too even-tempered to do it themselves. Either way, call it what you want, this fight will decide who gets locked in a cage next with a provoked Francis Ngannou for the actual Heavyweight Title.

In his most recent victory, Gane confused Volkov for five rounds as showcased his unique combination of speed, power, movement and technique. Volkov looked like someone had just handed him a Rubik's Cube with all the stickers peeled off and he had no clue where to even begin in a striking battle against Gane—which is generally where Volkov excels. Gane finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 135-115 and in total strikes 139-115, but really took over in the middle rounds and dictated the action for almost the entire fight. To keep Volkov guessing, Gane attempted four takedowns, but never landed any and really seemed to be throwing them out there more as a change up than anything else. The fight played out entirely on the feet, as Volkov had requested going in. Gane is beginning to feel like the Floyd Mayweather of the Heavyweight division, as he wins decisions so easily that people call him boring.

Prior to the recent win over Volkov, Gane defeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a frustratingly slow paced 5-round snoozer. In Gane’s defense, he did what he needed to do, while Rozenstruik appeared to just mail it in. The 25 minute high-stakes staring contest ended with Gane ahead in significant strikes 102-42 and 128-49 in total strikes, and honestly it felt like far less watching the fight. Gane also went 2 for 14 on takedowns while accruing roughly four and a half minutes of control time. Despite the lackluster performance, clearly all that mattered for Gane was getting the win, which propelled him from the #7 ranked Heavyweight to the #3 spot, which Rozenstruik previously held.

Now 9-0 in MMA, Gane turned pro just three years ago in August 2018 after previously competing in Muay Thai from 2016-2018. His nine wins are evenly distributed between knockouts, submissions and decisions, with three of each. However, five of his six career finishes occurred in his first five pro fights, while three of his last four matches have gone the distance. Also notable, three of his first four fights ended in the first round, but his last five fights have all made it to round two, with four of those seeing a third round and the last two going five full rounds.

Looking back to the beginning of Gane’s UFC career, in what was just his fourth pro fight, Gane made his UFC debut in 2019 against Raphael Pessoa, who was also undefeated and making his UFC debut. Gane submitted Raphael Pessoa towards the end of the first round, in a low volume affair where Gane led just 15-9 in significant strikes in just over four minutes of action.

Gane followed up that first round victory by seeing the third round for the first time in his career against a questionable talent in Don'Tale Mayes. Gane commanded the fight and finished Mayes 14 seconds before the third round ended with his second straight submission win. He very nearly finished Mayes at the end of the first round, but ran out of time—although the ref definitely could have stopped it.

Gane then fought another mobile Heavyweight in Tanner Boser in his third UFC fight and made it to the judges for the first time in his MMA career. Gane was unable to take Boser down on his only official attempt, but finished ahead 65-32 in striking on his way to a unanimous 30-26 decision win.

After fighting four times in 2019 (including once prior to joining the UFC) Gane only fought once in 2020 after he watched four straight fights get canceled. The first of those was due to him suffering an injury, but the next three were completely out of his control with three straight opponents withdrawing.

When he finally got back inside the Octagon he knocked out a washed up Junior dos Santos in the second round in December 2020 before defeating Rozenstruik in February 2021 and then Volkov in June 2021. Gane landed a solid amount of volume against Dos Santos, leading in significant strikes 59-10 before finishing the fight midway through the second round.

Gane is a high-level Muay Thai striker who averages 5.13 SSL/min while only absorbing 2.6/min. He’ll also mix in grappling at times, but with just a 26% takedown accuracy he misses three takedown attempts for every one he lands. He went 0 for 4 on takedowns in his last fight, after going just 2 for 14 in his previous match. Prior to that he had landed 3 on 5 attempts in his first four UFC fights combined. On the other side of things, he’s never been taken down himself, although the only person to ever try was Raphael Pessoa, who went 0 for 2 in Gane’s UFC debut.

Derrick Lewis

22th UFC Fight (16-5)

Coming off a massive upset of Curtis Blaydes, Lewis cadavered Blaydes despite entering that fight as a +340 underdog. Blaydes went 0 for 3 on his takedown attempts, but outlanded Lewis 28-7 in strikes in a fight that lasted just under six and a half minutes before Blaydes foolishly telegraphed a takedown from distance and bowed into a Lewis uppercut. While the fight didn’t make it very long, it was on pace to finish with Blaydes ahead in striking 109-27 as he was landing 4.35 SS/min. Lewis on the other hand was doing Derrick Lewis things, averaging just 1.09 SS/min, but once again proving it only takes one. Despite being known for his one-punch prowess, that marked Lewis’ 13th straight fight to make it past the first round, with eight of those seeing the third round.

In his second most recent fight, Lewis was able to survive the smothering submission attempts of Alexey Oleynik over the course of the first five minutes. After allowing Oleynik to gas himself out, Lewis was able to quickly finish him early in the second round.

Prior to his recent two second round knockout wins against a pair of grapplers in, the 36-year-old Lewis hadn’t finished an opponent since 2018 when he knocked out Alexander Volkov with 11 seconds to go in the final round in a fight he was losing badly.

Looking back to the beginning of his UFC career, 13 of his first 15 UFC fights ended in KOs, with him winning 10 of those. And while five of his first eight UFC fights ended in R1, none of his last 13 have ended before the second round. Lewis hasn’t won a fight in the first round since 2016 and hasn’t lost in the first round since 2014.

This will be Lewis’ 11th five round fight of his career (8th in the UFC), and he has never been past the fourth round. The first three five-round fights of his career came prior to joining the UFC. The first was in 2012 and ended in a No Contest just 48 seconds in for “Illegal Strikes.” His next was later in 2012 and ended in a second round KO win in a Legacy FC Heavyweight Championship fight, immediately followed by a third round KO win in a 2013 Legacy FC Heavyweight Championship defense. His first five-round fight in the UFC was in 2016 and ended in a fourth round KO win, immediately followed by a second round KO win in 2017 and then a fourth round KO loss against Mark Hunt in 2017. Following the loss, Lewis rattled off three straight three-round wins with a third round KO of Marcin Tybura, a staring contest decision win over Francis Ngannou and a late third round KO of Alexander Volkov. That was enough to get him a title shot against Daniel Cormier in the seventh five-round five of Lewis’ career. Cormier submitted Lewis in the second round, which remains the only time Lewis has been submitted in his career. Lewis was then finished again in another five round match as he was knocked out by Junior dos Santos in the second round of his next fight. He then won a pair of three-round decisions, before landing back-to-back second round knockouts in fights scheduled to go five-rounds in his most recent two matches. So in summary, Lewis is 6-3 plus a No Contest in his 10 career five round fights. All of those fights ended early, and ignoring the No Contest, they all ended in rounds two (4-2), three (1-0) or four (1-1). Interestingly, Lewis’s last four and five of his last six fights scheduled to go five rounds have ended in the second round.

Derrick Lewis 5-Round Fights:

2012 No Contest (Pre-UFC)
2012 R2 KO W (Pre-UFC)
2013 R3 KO W (Pre-UFC)
2016 R4 KO W
2017 R2 KO W
2017 R4 KO L
2018 R2 SUB L
2019 R2 KO L
2020 R2 KO W
2021 R2 KO W

Fight Prediction:

Gane will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also five years younger than the 36-year-old Lewis.

While Gane’s last two opponents have collectively only been knocked out three times in 56 combined pro fights (5.4%), Lewis has four KO losses in just 32 pro fights (12.5%). Lewis has been in 10 five-round fights and has never seen the fifth round, while Gane is coming off consecutive five-round decisions. Gane’s last two opponents have better cardio than Lewis and had both previously been to the fifth, whereas it would be something new for Lewis to make it there. So while Gane’s patient fighting style has recently been conducive to dragging fights out, it’s unclear if Lewis is even capable of going five rounds. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Lewis fade in the fourth round if this fight makes it there. Gane can win this fight in so many ways, whether it’s through a power shot that knocks Lewis out, taking him to the mat and submitting him, wearing him out with tactical striking and finishing him late or pointing his way to another decision victory. However, Lewis has just one way to notch a victory here, and that’s to knock Gane out if he can catch him sleeping for just a second. Gane appears so laser focussed and cautious in his approach that the chances of that appear unlikely, but look up punchers’ chance in the dictionary and you’ll find a picture of Derrick Lewis smiling with his pants off. With that said, we like Gane to win this fight in the middle rounds and think a second or fourth round knockout are the two most likely outcomes.

The safest bet here is that the “Fight Doesn’t Start the 5th Round” at -138, but we also like betting the fight Ends in R2, R3 or R4 at +500, +750 and +1000 respectively. And we like “Gane Wins in R2” at +750, “Gane Wins in R4” at +1100 and “Lewis Wins in R2” at +2100. You can also consider Lewis’ KO line at +430 if you like his chances overall.

DFS Implications:

Gane’s DFS production has slowed down as of late, as he’s failed to top 94 DraftKings points in three of his last four fights with recent DK scores of 85, 94, 105 and 56. He fared just slightly better overall on FanDuel with scores of 101, 93, 125 and 59. Working against him in this fight, Lewis absorbs an average of just 2.16 SS/min, and only one person has ever landed more than 59 significant strikes on Lewis, which was Alexander Volkov, who then got knocked out in the third round. Gane is certainly skilled enough to piece Lewis up over the course of this fight and outperform what others have been able to achieve against him, but he could still come up short at returning value even if he does get a finish. For example, if he doubles Lewis’ career average of significant strikes absorbed and lands 4.3/min for a round and half before getting a finish in the second round with one knockdown, he will score 93/106 DK/FD points. If he sets that same striking pace and gets a finish in the middle of the third round it will score 77/94 points and in the middle of the fourth it will be good for 80/92 points. If he sustains that pace to a five-round decision it will score just 73/85 points. Those scores don’t factor in any control time or takedowns, but we’re not really expecting much of either, although both are possible. So overall, we expect him to score better on FanDuel, but struggle to put up a big score on either site assuming he doesn’t get a first round finish. The odds imply he has a 75% chance to win and a 44% chance to get a finish, but just a 15% chance it comes in R1.

Lewis’ sluggish striking pace and lack of grappling generally makes it tough for him to really score well in DFS, especially on DraftKings. His last seven wins have returned DK/FD scores of 83/100 (R2 KO), 109/114 (R2 KO), 41/44 (R3 DEC), 51/54 (R3 DEC), 77/88 (R3 KO), 38/32 (R3 DEC) and 86/101 (R3 KO). The biggest takeaways from his past scores are that he essentially always performs better on FanDuel than DraftKings, is unlikely to ever lead a slate in scoring and requires a knockout to score even remotely decently but can still bust even if he gets one. At his cheap price tag and low ownership, you’re playing Lewis as a low-owned contrarian value option knowing that the odds imly he has under a 20% chance to return value. At just $6,800, he’s priced identically on DraftKings to the last time he fought when he knocked out Blaydes in the second round while checking in at just 16% ownership. However, he still failed to crack the optimal DK lineup on that slate, where he scored just 83 points. He also failed to make it into the winning FanDuel lineup where he scored 100 points, but was priced at $17 and ended up being just 9% owned. So even if Lewis does get a finish, you still can’t necessarily rely on it to be useful, which further reduces any interest we have in playing him despite his low ownership and price tag. We did see Gane go 2 for 14 on takedowns against Rozenstruik, so the one thing working in Lewis’ favor here on FanDuel is the potential to boost his score with takedowns defended. He’ll also have the home crowd behind him for what it’s worth and apparently never loses in Texas. The odds imply he has a 26% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in the first round.

One final thing to note. The main event has only been left out of winning DK lineups three times this year on 26 total slates. One of those was due to a No Contest in the Leon Edwards/Belal Muhammad fight so it’s really more like two times. The last Derrick Lewis slate was one of those two.

Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma

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