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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Mohammed Usman
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Fresh off his first UFC loss, Usman recently dropped a close decision to Mick Parkin in a pure striking battle where no takedowns were attempted. Usman unloaded a flurry of strikes in the opening minutes, but Parkin survived the initial blitz and then outlanded Usman from that point on, relying heavily on leg kicks throughout the fight. Of the 72 significant strikes that Parkin landed, 31 were leg strikes and Usman has been prone to having his lead leg attacked. Usman’s last three fights all went the distance and just before losing to Parkin, he outlasted Jake Collier to win each of the later rounds, after dropping round one. The striking numbers ended up being close in that one, with Collier ahead 87-85 in significant strikes and Usman ahead 118-100 in total strikes. Usman secured the win with a takedown and three minutes of control time in round three, after failing to land his only attempt in the first two rounds. The fight almost got stopped in round two after Usman poked Collier in the eye, but Collier refused to quit. Prior to that, Usman won a wrestling-heavy decision over a one-dimensional kickboxer in Junior Tafa, where Usman only landed 2 of his 12 takedown attempts, but finished with 12 minutes of control time as he hung on for dear life for 15 minutes. Usman only landed seven significant strikes in the fight, while Tafa landed 22. That came just after Usman landed an early R2 KO win on the finale of The Ultimate Fighter, which is his only finish since 2019. That came against a career Light Heavyweight in Zac Pauga, who only moved up to Heavyweight to be on the show and moved back down to 205 lb for his next fight. Usman dropped Pauga with a non-chanlant left hand that says more about Pauga’s chin than Usman’s power and Pauga went 1-3 in the UFC with two knockout losses before being cut. Both of Usman’s previous wins on TUF went the distance and despite his imposing physique he hasn’t been much of a finisher. Just prior to going on the show, Usman got dropped twice and then submitted in the second round of a 2021 PFL fight, after winning a decision in 2020. That PFL loss came against a 40-year-old Brandon Sayles, who hadn’t fought in three and a half years leading up to that fight and was knocked out in his only match since.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Usman has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and four decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted once and has two decision losses. All six of Usman’s early wins occurred in the first six minutes of fights, with the first five ending in round one. Both of his submission victories ended in kimuras in his first two pro fights against opponents with losing records and his last four finishes all ended in knockouts. Only five of his 10 wins came against opponents with winning records and he has a disturbing 2018 decision loss to Don'Tale Mayes on his resume.
Overall, Usman is a muscle-bound Heavyweight whose bark is worse than his bite. He’ll throw a big overhand right, but doesn’t connect with it all that often and hasn’t knocked out an actual Heavyweight opponent since 2019. Usman has also looked somewhat chinny and at 35 years old we doubt he’s improving all that much at this stage in his career. He has a football background, as he played Defensive End at University of Arizona, but he also wrestled in high-school. He’ll shoot for takedowns in the right matchup, but don’t be mistaken, his wrestling is nothing like his brother’s. In his four UFC fights, he landed just 3 of his 16 takedown attempts (18.8% accuracy), while no one has tried to take him down. Usman’s nickname is “The Motor” and he’s got good cardio for a big guy, which is useful in a division where most fighters don’t. He’s not the biggest Heavyweight and weighed in between 236 lb and 239 lb for all of his UFC fights.
Thomas Petersen
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Petersen will be looking to bounce back from a close decision loss in his UFC debut against Jamal Pogues, who Petersen was only able to take down once on six attempts. Pogues narrowly outlanded Petersen 65-58 in significant strikes, while Petersen finished ahead 116-66 in total strikes. All three judges scored the first two rounds for Pogues, while two of the three gave Petersen round three. Prior to that, Petersen locked up a second round submission win on DWCS over Chandler Cole. You may remember Cole from The Ultimate Fighter Season 30, or you may not because he got knocked out in the first round of the show. That’s a good representation of the level of competition that Petersen had been facing on the Minnesota regional scene and his two opponents before going on DWCS came in with records of 6-4 and 2-3. The first eight fights of Petersen’s career ended in knockouts (7-1), with most of his finishes coming via ground and pound. The only time he ever faced a legitimate opponent before joining the UFC was in a 2022 LFA title fight against Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who knocked Petersen out in the third round.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Petersen has seven wins by KO/TKO and one submission victory. Six of his knockout wins occurred in under four minutes, with the other coming in round two. His lone submission victory also ended in round two. He’s only seen the third round twice in his career and he lost both of those fights in a 2022 R3 TKO and the decision in his recent debut. The longest win of his career came at the 8:14 mark. After Petersen’s first five pro fights all ended in round one, four of his last five made it to the second round, with two of those seeing the third round. All of Petersen’s wins have come against a very low level of competition, so take his record with a grain of salt. Half of his wins came against opponents with losing records.
Overall, Petersen has been wrestling since he was a little kid and was a two-time Minnesota state high school champ and also an NCJAA national champion. He’ll occasionally look for armbars and keylock submissions on the mat, but he’s only a BJJ blue belt and is more often trying to finish fights with ground and pound. Petersen doesn’t have great striking and hasn’t shown the ability to win longer fights when he’s unable to land an early finish. He’s very reliant on getting fights to the mat and controlling his opponents and hasn’t faced a ton of adversity in his career. It looks like he’ll be very matchup dependent in the UFC and while he will likely be able to find success against low-level, one-dimensional strikers, we expect him to struggle against other grapplers and tougher opponents. In fairness to Petersen, he’s still only 29 years old, which is super young for a Heavyweight.
Fight Prediction:
Petersen will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being six years younger than the 35-year-old Usman.
Usman isn’t the biggest Heavyweight and normally weighs in around 237 lb, while Petersen generally checks in around 255-265 lb. So look for Petersen to have about a 25 lb weight advantage if history is any indicator, which could be very useful in the wrestling exchanges and make it tougher for Usman to return to his feet if he does get taken down. Usman also wrestled in high-school and does have some grappling ability, but we’ve yet to see anyone try to take him down in the UFC. That makes it harder to gauge his defensive wrestling, which is what the results of this match will likely hinge on. That adds to the volatility of this low-level Heavyweight fight and we’re already not very high on either of these guys. Usman looks like the better striker and should have the cardio advantage, while Petersen has looked a little more durable, in addition to being the better wrestler. However, Petersen’s striking defense has looked pretty poor and that caught up with him in his knockout loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta back in 2022. While Usman hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat, he will throw big overhand rights and if he connects on one it’s possible he can knock Petersen out. He also has the ability to outland his way to a decision win if he can avoid getting stuck on his back. Meanwhile, Petersen lost the only decision he’s ever been to and has been reliant on quickly finishing opponents to win fights, typically through ground and pound. Petersen still needs to prove he’s not a complete fraud and it’s hard to back him against anyone that can wrestle even a little. And until he shows he has the cardio to effectively wrestle for three rounds, he’ll be overly reliant on landing finishes, something he’s only been successful at against terrible opponents to this point. Petersen is most likely to find wrestling success early in this fight when he’s still fresh and we expect him to have a tougher time landing takedowns the longer things go. So unless he can win the first two rounds and then hang on to win a decision, he’ll likely need a ground and pound finish in the first half of the match. If that doesn’t happen then we like Usman’s chances of either knocking Petersen out or winning a close decision. Sprinkling Petersen’s early finishing props and then potentially live betting Usman after the first round makes a lot of sense, as so much of Petersen’s win equity is tied up with an early finish and you will likely be able to get a better line on Usman after round one until Petersen just completely falls on his face. We trust these two about as far as we can throw them, but we expect a fast start by Petersen followed by a drop off in the later rounds, where he allows Usman back into the fight. That likely results in a close decision and we’ll say Usman squeaks it out in a sloppy, low-volume decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Thomas Petersen R1/2” at +480.
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DFS Implications:
Usman is coming off his first UFC loss, which ended in a low-volume decision against Mick Parkin where Usman only scored 23 DraftKings points. Prior to that, he won a pair of decisions where he returned scores of 81 and 79 points, after landing a second round knockout win in his UFC debut that was good for 85 points. So he’s averaged just 82 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, failing to top 85 points in any of those. You have to go all the way back to 2019 to find his second most recent finish, even counting his exhibition matches on The Ultimate Fighter. He only averages 3.18 SSL/min and isn’t very great anywhere, but he’s somewhat well rounded and has decent cardio for a Heavyweight. That honestly could be enough for him here as he takes on a one-dimensional wrestler with a somewhat suspect gas tank. However, at Usman’s expensive price tag, he’ll need a well-timed finish to return value, making it very hard to trust him. Despite not being very good, Usman was popular in each of his first three UFC fights, but the field finally bailed on him in his last fight. If he’s once again lower owned here, then his tournament appeal will go up, but overall he’s nothing more than an unimpressive KO or bust option who only has one finish in the last five years. The odds imply Usman has a 54% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Petersen’s wrestling-heavy style is generally one we’re looking to target in DFS, especially on DraftKings and at Heavyweight where so many fighters are terrible off their backs. However, we’re not sold on Petersen as a prospect and all of his wins have come against terrible opponents. He came up short the only two times he faced a step up in competition and while Usman is not a great fighter by any means, he’s still better than the guys that Petersen was finishing on the Minnesota regional scene. While Petersen has shown decent top pressure and ground and pound when he can land takedowns, he still needs to prove he can find the same level of wrestling success in the UFC. He hasn’t shown much in the way of striking and also tends to slow down some later on in fights. That means we can’t trust him to have the energy to wrestle for 15 minutes, which is what it would take for him to put up a big score in a decision. However, at his cheap price tag he’ll still be in the value play discussion in a decision win if he can at least find some wrestling success. Ultimately, this is a low-level fight that carries a decent amount of volatility, so it makes sense to have a small level of exposure to both sides in tournaments. The odds imply Petersen has a 46% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Lucie Pudilova
11th UFC Fight (3-7)Pudilova has lost two straight decisions and is now moving back down to 125 lb for the first time since 2020. We saw the same move from her in her first stint with the UFC, and after going 2-2 at 135 lb in 2017-2018, she dropped down to 125 lb in 2019 and then lost three straight fights before being cut. She then immediately moved back up to 135 lb when she returned to the regional scene, where she stayed until now. In her last fight, Pudilova faced a bully wrestler in Ailin Perez and got dominated on the mat for the first two rounds. However, Pudilova flipped the script in round three and was able to control Perez for almost the entire round and nearly locked up a submission. However, it was too little, too late and Perez went on to win a decision. Prior to that, Pudilova lost a terrible split-decision to Joselyne Edwards, where Pudilova landed two takedowns and controlled Edwards for half the match, but the judges ignored all of that. Edwards did finish ahead 56-39 in significant strikes and 90-74 in total strikes, but seemingly everyone was shocked the decision went her way, including the broadcast team. That came after Pudilova notched her first UFC win since 2018 and only finish since 2016 (before she joined the UFC), with a second round ground and pound TKO over Wu Yanan. That was Pudilova’s first fight back in the UFC after she got cut following a 2020 decision loss to Justine Kish. Pudilova originally joined the UFC in 2017 when she was just 22 years old. She lost a decision to Lina Lansberg in her debut, but bounced back with decision wins over Ji Yeon Kim and Sarah Moras. However, she then lost four straight, with decision losses to Irene Aldana, Liz Carmouche, and Justine Kish, and a submission loss to Antonina Shevchenko, before being released. After getting cut, Pudilova returned to fighting in the Czech Republic, where she fought to six straight decisions, winning five of them. The UFC then brought her back in August 2022 and Pudilova has since shown improvements to her offensive grappling, although still many holes from a defensive perspective. Amazingly, Pudilova is 1-6 in her last seven UFC fights.
Now 14-9 as a pro, Pudilova has three wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and nine decisions. Both of her submission wins occurred back in 2016, while she only has one KO/TKO win since 2015. She’s never been knocked out, with her one early loss ending in a 2019 R2 submission against Antonina Shevchenko. Pudilova’s other eight losses all went the distance. Fourteen of her last 16 fights went the distance.
Overall, Pudilova had looked like a one-dimensional striker in her first stint with the UFC, but clearly had been working on her ground game in her time away as she suddenly put on a grappling clinic in her 2022 return to the UFC, albeit against a one-dimensional striker in Wu Yanan. In her 10 UFC fights, she landed 5 of her 18 takedown attempts (27.8% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 9 of their 27 attempts (66.7% defense). Pudilova has a solid jab and is a pretty good striker, but she’s been inconsistent throughout her career. She’s just 1-4 in UFC fights where she’s been taken down even once and has really struggled against anyone that can wrestle. Luckily for her, she’s facing a striker here. Pudilova will be someone to monitor on the scale as she attempts to move back down to 125 lb here.
Luana Carolina
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Coming off her first early win in the UFC, Carolina landed a third round ground and pound TKO against Julija Stoliarenko with just eight seconds left in the fight. The stoppage was incredibly soft, but it wouldn’t have really mattered if the fight had gone the distance anyways, as Carolina won the first two rounds on all three scorecards. While she did get stuck in an armbar attempt at the end of round one, and also multiple attempts in round three, she outlanded Stoliarenko 66-16 in significant strikes and 138-21 in total strikes, while also finishing ahead in takedowns and control time. It was a submission or bust effort from Stoliarenko, and she didn’t get a submission. Prior to that, Carolina defeated another grappler in Ivana Petrovic, where the majority of that fight was spent in the clinch and on the mat. Petrovic landed 2 of her 6 takedowns with 4+ minutes of control time, while Carolina landed 1 of her 3 attempts with close to six minutes of control time. Carolina finished ahead just 41-22 in significant strikes and 112-77 in total strikes. That snapped a two-fight skid for Carolina, who had previously lost a split decision to Joanne Wood after getting knocked out for the first time in her career by Molly McCann. Leading up to those two losses, Carolina won a pair of really close, low-volume decisions, where she entered as a +185 and +200 dog respectively, after getting quickly submitted by Ariane Lipski in a kneebar.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Carolina has three wins by TKO, one submission, and six decision victories. However, three of her four finishes occurred in her first four pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0, and 2-1. She’s also been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. Four of her last five wins went the distance, while two of her three UFC losses ended early. Both of her decision losses were split, as was one of her wins. While Carolina has competed at 125 lb for her entire UFC career, her three fights prior to joining the organization were up at 135 lb and she’s big for the 125 lb division.
Overall, Carolina is a Brazilian Muay Thai striker who didn’t even attempt a takedown in any of her first six UFC fights, before landing three of her six attempts in her last two matches. She also had one failed attempt on DWCS, so overall she’s landed 3 of her 7 attempts (42.9% accuracy). On the other side of things, she’s only been taken down by her opponents on 10 of their 43 attempts (76.7% defense), but her last six opponents were all able to get her down at least once. Carolina missed weight by two pounds for her last fight and also missed by 2.5 pounds back in 2021, although won both those fights. Nevertheless, she’s always someone to monitor during weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Pudilova is listed as having a 2” height advantage, but the UFC has been misrepresenting Carolina’s height for years and we’re expecting these two to be the same height. Carolina also has a 2” reach advantage.
While Pudilova has looked to wrestle a little more in recent fights, Carolina has a really solid 76” takedown defense and a good get up game. It will be interesting to see if Carolina looks for any takedowns of her own considering that Pudilova has struggled off her back, but Carolina isn’t much of an offensive grappler and generally content with keeping fights standing and throwing down on the feet. Both fighters have shown the ability to throw down in a high-volume brawl, but those instances have been sort of few and far between, making it harder to predict what we’ll get here. If they’re both willing, we could definitely see an exciting striking battle, but it’s also possible we get extended periods of time in the clinch. It will be interesting to see how Pudilova looks after cutting the additional weight and how that affects her durability and cardio. Assuming both of those hold up, we like Carolina to win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Luana Carolina ML” at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Pudilova has averaged 90 DraftKings points in her three UFC wins, scoring 100 or more in each of her last two victories. She’s a tall, aggressive striker who improved her grappling a good amount in between her first and second stints with the UFC. However, she’s just 1-6 in her last seven UFC fights and two of her three UFC victories were all the way back in 2017 and 2018. And while she was robbed of a decision win against Joselyne Edwards, she still only would have scored 76 DraftKings even if the decision had gone her way. Now she’s facing the solid 76% takedown defense of Luana Carolina and it will be harder for Pudilova to find much success on the mat. And considering that 14 of her last 16 fights went the distance, it’s hard to have much confidence in her ability to find a finish. That likely leaves her reliant on putting up a monster striking total to score well, which isn’t impossible and we’ve seen each of these two involved in high-volume brawls in the past. However, Pudilova is dropping down from 135 lb to 125 lb, which has the potential to impact her durability and/or cardio and the last time she made the move from 135 lb to 125 lb she lost three straight fights before being cut from the UFC. She opened the week as a slight favorite, before the line flipped, so now she’s slightly overpriced on both sites, which should keep her ownership quite low. That at least adds to her tournament appeal some on this smaller slate, but overall it’s tough to get overly excited about playing her. The odds imply Pudilova has a 49% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Carolina is coming off her first early win in the UFC and first finish with any organization since 2016. It arguably shouldn’t have even been a finish, as she was landing pitter-pat ground and pound with less than 10 seconds left in the fight when the ref halted the action. Regardless, she scored a career-best 106 DraftKings points in the “finish.” Her previous four UFC wins all went the distance, where she averaged 76 DraftKings points. She only returned DraftKings scores of 76, 59, and 65 points in the last three of those, after she was able to put up 102 DraftKings points in her UFC debut decision victory, that came in a dream matchup against Priscila Cachoeira who wants nothing more than to brawl for three rounds. Carolina has only landed three total takedowns in eight UFC appearances, leaving her reliant on striking and finishes to score well. Considering that Pudilova has never been knocked out and Carolina hasn’t submitted anybody since her first pro win back in 2015, it’s unlikely that she finds a finish here, unless the cut down to 125 lb completely kills Pudilova, which is always possible. So Carolina will be heavily reliant on putting up a monster striking total or finding an unusual amount of wrestling success to score well. The odds imply Carolina has a 51% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Loik Radzhabov
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Radzhabov is fresh off an early third round knockout win over a debuting opponent in Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady. It was a back and forth fight, as Radzhabov started strong and had Al-Selwady hurt in the first round, winning the round, before slowing down some in round two as Al-Selwady evened things up. However, just as the fight appeared to be slipping away from him, Radzhabov dropped Al-Selwady in the opening minute of round three and finished him with ground and pound. Prior to that, Radzhabov suffered a R2 TKO loss against a really tough Mateusz Rebecki, who absolutely destroyed the legs of Radzhabov and also took him down once in the first round and beat him up on the mat. That came after Radzhabov stepped into his UFC debut on just six days’ notice and won a decision over Esteban Ribovics, who was also making his debut. Radzhabov landed 11 takedowns on 21 attempts with over seven and a half minutes of control time in that fight, but did get dropped late in the second round and then hurt again late in round three. That win came 14 months after he landed a first round submission win with Eagle FC, after losing a five-round decision in the PFL. Radzhabov has fought for the PFL million dollar prize not once, but twice, although he lost five-round decisions both times.
Now 18-5-1 as a pro, Radzhabov has eight wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. Most of his finishes came early in his career and 9 of his last 13 fights went the distance. He’s only been finished once in his career, which was the second round TKO against Mateusz Rebecki. Radzhabov’s other four losses all went the distance. Radzhabov has competed at 155 lb, 165 lb, and 170 lb, showing that he’s probably one of these 155/170 tweeners who would benefit from the rumored 165 lb division that the UFC is considering. However, 13 of his last 14 fights have been at 155 lb and it appears that’s where he’ll stay for the time being.
Overall, Radzhabov has good wrestling and pretty heavy hands. While he’s not the most explosive or exciting fighter, he just keeps on going and can wear on his opponents, although we’ve also seen him often get tired himself. He’s already 33 years old, trains at Kill Cliff FC, and has twice competed with a million dollars on the line, so he has a lot of experience and a good team around him. In his three UFC fights, he landed 15 of his 26 takedown attempts (57.7% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents 4 times on 9 attempts (55.5% defense). Radzhabov doesn’t land much striking volume and only averages 2.93 SSL/min, although absorbs far more than he lands at 4.73 SSA/min. He notably missed weight by 1.25 lb for his second most recent fight and has competed as high as 170 lb in the past, so he’ll be a guy to monitor on the scale on Friday.
Trey Ogden
6th UFC Fight (2-2, NC)Ogden is coming off a smothering decision win over Kurt Holobaugh, where Ogden was able to take Holobaugh down three times and control him for 11 minutes on the mat as he cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win. Prior to that, Ogden was absolutely robbed of a submission win when it was deemed that the referee, Mike Beltran, stopped the fight prematurely after Ogden locked up a choke in the third round against Nikolas Motta, who appeared just seconds away from going out. Even if Motta had somehow survived, he was about to lose a 30-27 decision, as Ogden had dominated the fight and finished ahead 58-14 in significant strikes and 96-16 in total strikes, while also landing three takedowns with four and a half minutes of control time. Instead, it went down as a No Contest and Ogden didn’t get a win of any kind, despite putting on a career performance as he fought out the final fight on his contract. The UFC at least did the right thing and gave him a new contract after the fight. Leading up to that No Contest, Ogden lost a decision to a one-dimensional striker in Ignacio Bahamondes, where Ogden looked like he was sleep walking through that fight after stepping in on short notice and somehow only attempted a single failed takedown despite holding a massive grappling advantage. In fairness to Ogden, he had just cut weight two weeks prior, only to have the fight canceled during weigh-ins after his opponent (Manuel Torres) dropped out. Bahamondes easily outlanded Ogden 99-42 in striking, winning an uneventful decision. Looking back one fight further, Ogden pulled off a major upset decision win where he entered as a +310 underdog, but outpointed his way to victory against a debuting Daniel Zellhuber. Ogden at least tried to get that fight to the ground, although wasn’t very successful as he only landed one of his nine attempts, with just 38 seconds of total control time. Just before that, Ogden lost a split decision to Jordan Leavitt in his short notice UFC debut, after submitting three straight opponents in the first two rounds on the regional scene.
Now 17-6 as a pro, Ogden has 11 submission wins and six decision victories. He’s also been submitted three times himself and has three decision losses. Two of his three submission losses were by R1 guillotine against a suspect Thomas Gifford, who went 0-2 in the UFC. His other submission loss was a 2019 R1 rear-naked choke. No one has ever been knocked out in any of his fights. Five of Ogden’s last seven finishes occurred in the later rounds, with four ending in round two. While all four of his UFC fights (not counting his recent No Contest) went the distance, 9 of his previous 11 matches ended early.
Overall, the 34-year-old Ogden has shown some improvements to his striking, but still doesn't look very dangerous on the feet and has been content with point fighting lately. That was never his style on the regional scene, but maybe the pressure of opening up his own gym and being the head coach that everyone looks up to resulted in him playing it safer and trying to set a good example for younger fighters. He had been training at Glory MMA with James Krause for his entire career, and also was the jiu-jitsu coach there, so obviously there were a lot of changes for him when Glory got shut down. In his five UFC fights, Ogden landed just 8 of his 34 takedown attempts (23.5% accuracy), while he defended all three of the attempts against him. He’s a BJJ black belt and should have had his first submission win in the UFC in his second most recent fight, before Mike Beltran stole that from him. Going into that fight, Ogden said he wanted to be more aggressive moving forward. While he did dial things up some, he was still looking for a clean fight where he could jab from the outside and then shoot for takedowns when they presented themselves. He only averages 3.38 SSL/min and 3.59 SSA/min and has yet to land more than 71 significant strikes in a fight.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’11” but Ogden will have a 3” reach advantage.
This is an interesting matchup, as both of these two come from grappling backgrounds, but also have decent striking. Radzhabov is the more powerful of the two, but Ogden seems a little more technical with his striking and has also shown better cardio. Ogden has recently done a good job of constructing gameplans and executing them successfully, although hasn’t looked like much of a finisher at the UFC level. He’s also never knocked anyone out before, while Radzhabov has never been submitted. That isn’t very encouraging for Ogden’s chances of finding his first official UFC finish here, but if Radzhabov gasses out it could open things up late in the match. And on the other side of things, Ogden has also never been knocked out, but has been submitted three times and Radzhabov does have five submission wins on his record. It’s not impossible that Radzhabov could lock up a guillotine as Ogden shoots in, but it would be more surprising to see him knock Ogden out. The most likely outcome is still for this fight to end in a lower volume decision, where we believe Ogden is the more likely of the two to get his hand raised.
Our favorite bet here is “Trey Ogden ML” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Radzhabov has averaged 109 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins and is coming off his first finish with the organization, where he scored 97 points in an early third round knockout. He also impressively scored 120 points in a wrestling-heavy decision win in his UFC debut, showing that he has multiple ways to score well. He’s got good wrestling and power in his hands, although his cardio is somewhat dubious and we saw him begin to slow down in the second round of his last fight, but that didn’t prevent him from finding a finish. He gets a tough matchup here against a grappler in Trey Ogden who has made improvements to his striking and has been fighting really conservatively lately, which will make it harder for Radzhabov to score well. We’ve yet to see Ogden get taken down in the UFC, but he was controlled on the mat for periods of time by Jordan Leavitt in his UFC debut. Ogden has also been prone to getting submitted in the past, although has never been knocked out. The most likely outcome in this match is a lower volume decision, but if Radzhabov can find a good amount of wrestling success or a finish, he’s reasonably priced so he may not need to put up a massive score to end up in winning lineups. The odds imply Radzhabov has a 51% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Ogden has been a tail of two fighters over the course of his career. Prior to joining the UFC, he was an aggressive grappler who was constantly hunting for submissions and finishing opponents on the mat, with 11 career submission wins under his belt. However, since joining the UFC, he’s really dialed things back. He did say leading up to his second most recent fight that he intended on reverting back to his more exciting style that got him to the UFC, and we saw somewhat of a more aggressive approach from him, but he’s still been fighting pretty cautiously. He only averages 3.38 SSL/min and 3.59 SSA/min, which generally leaves him reliant on dominating fights on the mat to score well when he can’t find a finish. That’s exactly what he did in his last outing, where he scored 117 DraftKings points but just 59 points on FanDuel in a smothering decision win over Kurt Holobaugh, who has been prone to getting controlled on the mat. That’s the only time that Ogden has topped 65 DraftKings points in his career and he’s never scored more than 69 points on FanDuel. In fairness to him, he was robbed of a third round submission win by Mike Beltran that would have scored 99 DraftKings points and 108 points on FanDuel had the submission held up, but instead scored just 54 DraftKings points after the third round bonus was stripped from him in what was overturned to a No Contest due to referee stupidity. Ogden only scored 65 DraftKings points in his other decision win and if he can’t find a ton of wrestling success, it will be hard for him to return a useful score without a finish. The odds imply Ogden has a 49% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Miranda Maverick
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Maverick had originally been scheduled to face Tracy Cortez here, but Cortez was rebooked to headline last week’s card and Barbosa was announced as the replacement in late June, a little over three weeks out.
Maverick is five months removed from a decision win over Andrea Lee, where Maverick was able to take Lee down three times and outlanded her 66-36 in significant strikes. Lee found some success in the first round, as she landed two takedowns of her own, but didn’t do much else in the rest of the fight outside of going for a hail mary submission in the final seconds of the match. Prior to that, Maverick locked up a third round submission win over Priscila “The Grappler’s Wet Dream” Cachoeira. Maverick was unsurprisingly able to take Cachoeira down in every round and control her before eventually finding a finish late in the fight. That came after Maverick called out Jasmine Jasudavicius and got all she could handle in a unanimous decision loss to the fellow wrestler. Prior to that loss, Maverick won a decision win over a highly suspect one-dimensional striker in Shanna Young who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released. That came after Maverick landed a second round submission against another striker in Sabina Mazo, who was also then released. Leading up to those wins, Maverick lost a pair of decisions to Maycee Barber and Erin Blanchfield, after winning a grappling-heavy decision over Gillian Robertson and landing a post R1 TKO in her UFC debut against a terrible Liana Jojua, who has also since been released.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Maverick has one TKO victory, seven submissions, and five decision wins. Her lone TKO win came from a doctor stoppage following the first round in her 2020 UFC debut. After the first four submission wins of her career all ended in the first round, her last three occurred in the later rounds. She’s never been finished, with all five of her losses going the distance. Six of her last eight fights ended with the judges (3-3), while she also had two late round submission wins over that stretch. Maverick started her pro career at 115 lb before moving up to 125 lb in her third pro fight.
Overall, Maverick comes from a wrestling background and is generally looking to rely on that to win fights. While her striking has improved somewhat over the years, she’s just 1-2 in UFC fights where she failed to land a takedown, with the one win coming against a one-dimensional armbar specialist in her 2020 UFC debut. Maverick has struggled when facing other wrestlers, showing that her grappling is far from elite, but she is now a BJJ black belt. We haven’t seen the improvements from her that you’d like to see in a serious prospect. She recently took a job with Hershey as a statistician, and also started a side business selling pickles, so she’s not even 100% focussed on fighting. She’s shown the ability to capitalize on favorable matchups, but almost every time the UFC tries to give Maverick a step up in competition she struggles. In her nine UFC fights, she landed 19 of her 41 takedowns attempts (46.3% accuracy), while getting taken down 13 times on 22 opponent attempts (40.9% defense). She’s never landed more than 71 significant strikes in a fight and only averages 3.80 SSL/min and 2.60 SSA/min. Maverick trains at Elevation fight team in Colorado, which should benefit her cardio, and she’s been working with Rose Namajunas lately. Maverick is still only 27 years old, so she has plenty of time to continue to grow as a fighter.
Dione Barbosa
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Barbosa stepped into this matchup on less than a month’s notice, but did at least have a few weeks to prepare. She’s only 11 weeks removed from a decision win in her May UFC debut against a one-dimensional striker in Ernesta Kareckaite, who was also debuting. Barbosa nearly locked up a rear-naked choke in the opening minutes of that fight and controlled Kareckaite on the mat for most of the first round. She was able to land another takedown early in round two, as well as a reversal, but slowed down in the back half of the fight and after winning each of the first two rounds, she lost the third round on all three scorecards. Barbosa was only able to land 2 of her 11 takedown attempts in the match and went 0 for 6 in the final five minutes. Prior to that decision win, Barbosa locked up a first round submission on DWCS, in a fight she took on short notice. That was Barbosa’s first finish since 2018 and her previous three fights all went the distance (2-1). She turned pro in 2018 and submitted each of her first two opponents in the first round, before winning a 2019 decision over UFC fighter Karine Silva, who has since finished nine straight opponents. Barbosa then faced another future UFC fighter in Josiane Nunes and got knocked out in the second round. Following that loss, Barbosa dropped down from 135 lb to 125 lb and joined the LFA, where she lost a close decision to Jena Bishop, who was able to take Barbosa down three times and control her for seven minutes, while Barbosa did more damage on the feet. Barbosa then bounced back with a pair of wrestling-heavy decision wins just before going on DWCS. However, the last of those decision wins came against a 5-6 34-year-old opponent who was coming off two losses and a three and a half year layoff, and the first was against a one-dimensional 1-1 striker. She then took on a former softball player on DWCS who said she took a kickboxing class to lose weight after getting shot by her boyfriend and then found herself in a new career. So while Barbosa has faced some really good opponents in the past, she’s also faced some really suspect competition.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Barbosa has three first round submission wins and four decision victories. However she only has one finish in her last seven fights. The only time she’s ever been finished herself was in a 2019 R2 TKO at 135 lb against Josiane Nunes, while she also has one decision loss. Barbosa’s first four pro fights were all at 135 lb, before she dropped down to 125 lb in 2021.
Overall, Barbosa is a well-rounded fighter and a former multi-time Brazilian national judo champion. She holds black belts in both judo and BJJ, and is also a pretty decent striker who likes to mix in flying knees. She fights out of Kings MMA, so she has a good team around her and tends to come in with smart game plans focussed around attacking the weaknesses of her opponents. So she’s generally looking to grapple against strikers and strike against grapplers. However, she has been a little overly content with riding out decisions on the mat and four of her last five wins went the distance. While she looks somewhat dangerous on the feet, we’ve never seen her put up big striking totals and her defense is still a work in progress. Cardio is also a concern for her and we saw her slow down a ton in the back half of her last fight following a fast start. Now she only had a few weeks to prepare for this fight, which could make that even worse.
Fight Prediction:
Barbosa will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while Maverick is five years younger than the 32-year-old Barbosa.
This is an interesting matchup between two fighters with grappling backgrounds. Maverick is just 2-3 in UFC fights where she gave up a takedown and has often struggled when facing other grapplers. We also think Barbosa has the striking advantage in this matchup, although Maverick has better cardio and had a full camp to prepare for this fight, while Barbosa had less than four weeks to get ready. So Maverick will likely win the third round if the fight makes it that far, leaving Barbosa reliant on either winning each of the first two rounds or becoming the first fighter to ever finish Maverick. Both of those are definitely in play, but it’s always hard to be overly confident in fighters who have shown questionable cardio in the past, especially when they’re stepping into a fight on somewhat short notice. Barbosa will have a shot at locking up a submission early and she’ll typically look for rear-naked chokes and then transition to armbar attempts. And if Barbosa completely gasses out then Maverick could have a shot at locking up a third round submission. However, it’s far more likely that this ends in a close decision where Barbosa wins round one, Maverick wins round three, and a close second round determines the winner. So if you’re looking to bet Barbosa, you’ll want to do it pre-flop, while it makes more sense to live bet Maverick after round one if you like her side of things. There also could be enough of a line swing in the opening five minutes that you can lock in profit by doing both, although that remains to be seen and there are enough sharp betters out there that a lot of people will likely be looking to grab Maverick’s live line if it improves. If Barbosa can avoid gassing out and/or getting controlled for periods of time, she has the potential to look like a sizable favorite, and we’re not entirely sold on Maverick at this point. So while we may look to hedge some with a Maverick live bet if a good line presents itself, we’ll take the underdog in Barbosa here and we believe she’s the more dangerous fighter both on the feet and the mat, we just worry about her cardio. A split decision seems very likely in this spot.
Our favorite bet here is “Dione Barbosa ML” at +185.
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DFS Implications:
Maverick has averaged an impressive 105 DraftKings points in her six UFC wins, scoring 85 or more points in all of those and at least 99 in five of them. She’s shown the ability to score well on DraftKings even without a finish, although most of her wins have been in very favorable matchups, with her last four victories all coming against strikers. She’s generally struggled when facing good wrestlers, and now she’s taking on a fighter in Barbosa who holds black belts in both Judo and BJJ. That’s concerning for Maverick’s ability to dominate this fight on the mat, and she’s not an especially talented striker. Working in Maverick’s favor, Barbosa stepped into this matchup on three and a half weeks’ notice and has shown cardio concerns in the past, leaving the potential for Maverick to dominate in the third round and potentially even find a late finish. However, that could be her only hope of really scoring well and this looks like a tough stylistic matchup for Maverick. And at Maverick’s sky-high salary, there are all sorts of ways she wins this fight and still gets priced out of winning tournament lineups. We also have less interest in playing Maverick on FanDuel, where she’ll be far more reliant on a finish. However, with no real safe options on this slate, Maverick does make sense on DraftKings in low-risk contests. The odds imply Maverick has a 66% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Barbosa is a well-rounded and smart fighter who generally does a good job of attacking her opponent’s weaknesses, as she has historically relied more on her striking against grapplers and her grappling against strikers. However, she does have sort of suspect cardio, and we saw her slow down a ton in the back half of her recent UFC debut. Now she’s stepping into this fight on three and a half weeks’ notice, which could just make matters worse. Her limited gas tank makes it tougher for her to keep up the same pace for three straight rounds, which lowers her scoring potential in fights where she’s unable to find a finish, as we saw in her debut where she only scored 77 points after a fast start in round one. Also concerning for her upside is that she only has one finish in her last seven fights and is now taking on a wrestler who has never been finished in her career. Barbosa will likely need an early submission to really score well, although at her cheap price tag it’s still very possible that she could serve as a value play in a decision win. There are very few low-owned options on this slate to help reduce dupes in large-field tournaments, but Barbosa is our favorite among them. The odds imply Barbosa has a 34% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Cody Gibson
7th UFC Fight (1-5)Gibson is four months removed from a low-volume unanimous 30-27 decision loss to Miles Johns, where Johns finished ahead just 25-18 in significant strikes and 2-1 in takedowns landed. Johns stepped into that fight on just 15 days’ notice after Davey Grant dropped out and slowed down in the third round, but Gibson was unable to capitalize on that and didn’t look good in the fight, despite being the one who had a full camp to prepare. Prior to that, lost another decision in a crazy high-volume brawl against Brad Katona in the finale of The Ultimate Fighter, which was still impressive enough for the UFC to bring Gibson back on. Gibson actually finished slightly ahead in significant strikes 164-160, while no takedowns or knockdowns were accrued by either fighter. Leading up to those two decision losses, Gibson landed back-to-back first round finishes on TUF, with the first of those ending in a TKO and the second a submission. He suffered a partial MCL tear in that first fight, but toughed through it and still won his second match despite the injury. Gibson originally joined the UFC all the way back in 2014 and made his short notice debut against Aljamain Sterling, who was also debuting. Gibson gave Sterling a run for his money and took Sterling down four times in the match, but Sterling took over in the third round to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. Gibson followed that up with a 38 second R1 TKO win over Johnny Bedford that had somewhat of a quick/controversial stoppage. Gibson then got submitted in the second round of his next fight, before losing a decision to a really tough Douglas Silva de Andrade. He was subsequently released in 2015, but proceeded to go 7-2 on the regional scene leading up to his run on TUF. One of those seven wins notably came in a decision against a really tough John Dodson, while one of the losses was in a decision to another former UFC fighter in Ray Borg. So Gibson has fought plenty of legitimate competition, although has had mixed results in those fights.
Now 19-10 as a pro, Gibson has seven wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and eight decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted four times and has five decision losses. All four of his submission losses occurred in the later rounds, with the last three of those coming via guillotine.
Overall, Gibson is a well-rounded fighter with a wrestling background and a BJJ brown belt, who has really good size for the 135 lb division at 5’10”. He’s dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but has been prone to getting submitted, especially by guillotine. In his six UFC fights, Gibson landed 6 of his 21 takedown attempts (28.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 22 attempts (68.2% defense). While Gibson was able to land 164 significant strikes against Brad Katona, that’s more than he landed in his other five UFC fights combined (118), and he looked to wrestle far less than normal in that matchup. He’s still teaching full-time, and also has family and multiple kids, so he’s got a lot on his plate as he tries to juggle those responsibilities alongside being a professional fighter. And after losing his last two fights in tougher matchups, this looks like a must win spot for the 36-year-old Gibson if he wants to stick around for long in his second stint with the UFC.
Brian Kelleher
17th UFC Fight (8-8)Kelleher is coming off a first round knockout loss to Cody Garbrandt, who only has one other finish since 2016, which was back in 2020. While Garbrandt is known for his glass chin, it was Kelleher who got put down quickly in that fight. That’s Kelleher’s third straight fight where he was finished in the first round, after he was submitted by Mario Bautista in June 2022 and by Umar Nurmagomedov three months before that. Kelleher had been scheduled to fight Journey Newson after his loss to Bautista, but ended up getting pulled from the fight and then had to decide between retiring or undergoing neck surgery, ultimately choosing the latter, which forced him into an extended layoff leading up to his recent loss. Kelleher’s last two wins both ended in wrestling-heavy decisions, with the most recent of those coming back in January 2022 against Kevin Croom, who finished 0-3 plus a No Contest in the UFC before being cut. The last time Kelleher finished anybody was in September 2020 when he submitted Ray Rodriguez, who was making his UFC debut on a day’s notice. Kelleher has been in the UFC since 2017 and has faced some really tough opponents, but also some really terrible opponents. His losses came against Cody Garbrandt, Mario Bautista, Umar Nurmagomedov, Ricky Simon, Cody Stamann, Montel Jackson, John Lineker, and Marlon Vera, and clearly Kelleher doesn’t have the best agent. While Kelleher’s losses have come against top-level competition, his wins have been against a bunch of bums, with his last four victories coming against Kevin Croom, Domingo Pilarte, Ray Rodriguez, and Hunter Azure, none of whom are still in the UFC.
Now 24-15 as a pro, Kelleher has eight wins by KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and six decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted eight times, and has five decision losses. Eight of his 10 submission wins and seven of his eight submission losses occurred in the first round, while he also landed a submission in each of the later rounds, and has been submitted once in round two as well. His last six and 7 of his 10 submission victories ended in guillotines, which he’s nicknamed the Boomatine since it’s basically his go to move. He also had three wins by rear-naked choke earlier in his career. Kelleher has gone back and forth between 135 lb and 145 lb throughout his career, but has remained at 135 lb since 2022.
Overall, Kelleher is an aging journeyman who turns 38 next month and looked completely shot after coming off neck surgery in his last fight. However, he’s fairly well rounded with good wrestling, a dangerous guillotine, and okay striking. However, while he’s previously looked decent everywhere, he’s not exceptional anywhere and it appears time and health have finally caught up with him. He’s stepping into the final fight of his deal, and another loss here would likely spell the end to his career. He’s always been a company man who stays active and is willing to fight basically anyone at either 135 lb or 145 lb, which is probably why he’s been allowed to hang around as long as he has. In his 16 UFC fights, Kelleher landed 15 of his 36 takedown attempts (41.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 14 of their 35 attempts (60% defense). While Kelleher failed to land more than a single takedown in any of his first 11 UFC fights, going just 6 for 24 (25% accuracy) on his attempts during that stretch, he landed a combined nine takedowns on 12 attempts (81.8% accuracy) in his last two wins, showing way more dedication towards his wrestling. He also has a dangerous left hook, which is what he used to knock out Hunter Azure in his last KO win, which came back in May 2020 in Kelleher’s first UFC fight up at 145 lb. The last time Kelleher knocked anybody out at 135 lb was in 2017. This is do or die for Kelleher and it’s hard to have much confidence in him as he comes off three straight first round losses and is just over a year removed from neck surgery.
Fight Prediction:
Gibson will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being a year younger than the 37-year-old Kelleher.
Both of these two are decently well-rounded fighters in their late thirties who are desperate for a win. They’ve each been very prone to getting submitted, while also being a submission threat themselves. They have 14 submission wins and 12 submission losses between them in 68 combined pro fights. Gibson has a long neck that he leaves exposed for guillotines and Kelleher is basically a guillotine specialist. While it almost seems too obvious, that looks like Kelleher’s best path to pulling off the upset, as Gibson has never been knocked out and Kelleher’s last knockout win was over four years ago. It’s not impossible that Kelleher could win a decision, but his chin looked pretty shot in his last match after he had neck surgery and it’s hard to trust his durability to hold up. When you combine Kelleher’s dubious durability with the potential for either guy to get submitted, it’s tougher to see this fight making it to the scorecards. While it’s hard to trust either one of these two, as long as Gibson doesn’t duck down into a guillotine, we like him to finish Kelleher early on in this match.
Our favorite bet here is “Gibson/Kelleher Fight Ends in SUB” at +215.
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DFS Implications:
Gibson has gone just 1-5 in the UFC and is coming off two straight decision losses against fairly stiff competition. Gibson’s lone UFC win came in his first stint with the organization all the way back in 2014 and he lost his last four UFC fights. However, he’s also faced a lot of good opponents and hasn’t had many teed up matchups. Now he’s facing a 37-year-old opponent in Kelleher who’s been finished in the first round in three straight fights and who had neck surgery leading up to his last outing, where he was face-planted in under four minutes by a washed up Cody Garbrandt. Kelleher has also been submitted eight times in his career and Gibson is a decent grappler with numerous submission wins on his record. Kelleher also averages 4.64 SSA/min (third most on the slate), and this is a high-upside matchup for Gibson in more ways than one. The only concerns are that Gibson didn’t look very good in his last fight and has been prone to getting guillotined, which is Kelleher’s go-to submission. That leaves Gibson with a shaky floor, but he has tons of upside. The odds imply Gibson has a 64% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Kelleher has consistently scored well when he wins, averaging 105 DraftKings points in his eight UFC victories, with at least 91 in all of those. However, he hasn’t won a fight in two and half years and is littered with red flags. He turns 38 next month, is in the final fight of his contract, has been finished in the first round in three straight fights, and is a year removed from a serious neck surgery. So while he has shown a well-rounded game and solid scoring upside in the past, it’s hard to trust him to be the same fighter now that he was a few years ago, and even then, almost all of his wins were against low-level opponents. You can certainly make the argument that Gibson isn’t anything special, but he’s still better than Kevin Crrom and Ray Rodriguez. Kelleher does have a pretty nasty guillotine, and Gibson has been submitted four times in his career, with the last three of those coming via guillotine. That will at least give Kelleher a shot to find a finish, and while guillotine finishes generally aren’t the best way to score really well, Kelleher is the cheapest fighter on the card and won’t need a huge score to end up in the optimal lineup. So at the very least, Kelleher will have a shot at locking up a submission, and there’s always a chance he could look better than the last time we saw him after getting one fight under his belt following neck surgery. However, he’s an incredibly risky play based on how he looked in his last match, where his durability appeared completely gone. The odds imply Kelleher has a 36% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
JeongYeong Lee
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming off his second straight decision win, Lee easily defeated Blake Bilder in a unanimous 30-27 low-volume decision win. Lee had Bilder hurt late in round one, but opted not to aggressively pursue the finish and allowed Bilder to survive. The lack of urgency to finish the fight was the only negative with his performance, as he dominated for the entire 15 minutes both on the feet and mat. That win came almost a year to the day after Lee won a close/controversial split-decision in the Road to UFC finals against Yizha. It was a lackluster fight where Yizha did almost nothing but look for takedowns and control for the entire fight. Yizha landed 5 of his 21 takedown attempts and finished with over eight minutes of control time, but Lee finished ahead in total strikes 66-37 and in significant strikes 25-24, while also being the one that did almost all of the damage in the fight. It looked like Yizha was competing in a wrestling match and he seemed oblivious to the fact that he actually needed to do damage to win and instead just ruined the fight for everybody. Afterwards, Lee revealed that he came into the fight with a torn ACL, which helps to explain both why he struggled to get off the cage and why he took a year off after the win. Leading up to those two decision wins, Lee had finished three straight opponents in 42 seconds or less as he easily cruised to the finals of the tournament. He’s won eight straight fights, with five of those wins coming in under seven minutes and his last four finishes ending in round one.
Now 11-1 as a pro, Lee has four wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. His last four finishes occurred in round one and all seven of his early wins came in the first two rounds. All three of his submission wins were by armbar, with the last two of those coming in the opening 36 seconds of fights. His only career loss was a 2017 two-round decision, which he later avenged with a first round knockout. Two of the five decisions he’s been to were in two-round fights, and only three times in his career has he seen the third round, all of which ended in decision victories.
Overall, Lee is a dangerous, well-rounded fighter with impressive striking accuracy and sneaky power, in addition to being a BJJ black belt. He does a good job controlling the distance in fights and moves in and out of space well. He has a patient but aggressive fighting style, where he’ll try to draw out openings from his opponents, but then look for finishes when they present themselves. He throws nasty body shots, but isn’t a guy that lands a ton of volume and he only averages 2.81 SSL/min and 1.57 SSA/min. In his last four fights, he landed two of his three takedown attempts (66.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on just 6 of their 26 attempts (76.9% defense). Lee is an interesting prospect to keep and eye on and at just 28 years old he should be continuing to improve between every fight.
Hyder Amil
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Amil is fresh off an absolutely dominant performance in his UFC debut, where he landed a second round TKO in a high-volume brawl against Fernie Garcia. Just keep in mind, Garcia went 0-4 in the UFC and took that fight up a weight class on just a week’s notice, so it was an absolute dream spot for Amil to dominate, and he fully capitalized on the situation. Amil completely filled up the statsheet, as he finished ahead 79-26 in significant strikes and 109-31 in total strikes, while also landing a knockdown, a takedown, a reversal, two submission attempts, and over two of control time. The only blemish in the performance was when Amil got reversed on the mat late in round one and had his back taken. A better grappler may have submitted him there but Garcia couldn’t complete the rear-naked choke. Prior to that impressive finish, Amil won a low-volume decision on DWCS where he spent basically the entire match defending takedowns from Emrah Sonmez, who landed 5 of his 23 attempts, but did very little with them. Amil was the one looking to land damage, which is why he won a unanimous 29-28 decision. That came after Amil landed an early second round knockout with the LFA, although not before he almost got submitted in round one. That followed a high-volume split-decision win where Amil pushed for an early finish but then slowed down in the later rounds. We saw that same high-paced start in his fight prior to that as well, although that time he landed a second round TKO as both fighters looked exhausted. Amil won another split decision just before that finish and he’s been alternating finishes and close decision wins over his last seven fights.
Now 9-0 as a pro, Amil has five TKO wins, one submission, and three decision victories. All five of his TKO wins ended in the second round, while his lone submission came in the first round of a 2019 match. All three of his decisions occurred in his last six fights, with two of those being split and the other a unanimous 29-28.
Overall, Amil is an uptempo brawler who looks to push a crazy pace that even he often can’t keep up with in longer fights. His fights typically end with everyone completely exhausted, but they’re always entertaining to watch. He’s primarily a striker but will mix in a few takedowns and look for ground and pound and submission on the mat. However, he’s only a BJJ purple belt and has one submission win. Between his recent UFC debut and his DWCS appearance, Amil landed one of his three takedown attempts (33% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 5 of their 23 attempts (78.3% defense). While Garcia never tried to take Amil down in his last fight, Amil’s previous four opponents all got him down at least once, with three of them getting him down multiple times. Amil was also able to land at least one takedown in all but one of those fights. He trains under Gilbert Melendez in San Francisco, which made it pretty awkward when Melendez was calling his fights in the LFA. While Amil has shown the ability to outlast lower level opponents, we’re interested to see how much success he can find against tougher competition. He’ll face the toughest test of his career here.
Fight Prediction:
Lee will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while also being six years younger than the 34-year old Amil.
Amil is one of these guys where it’s basically impossible for his fights to be boring. He’s nonstop action and looks to drown his opponents with his pace. That’s basically the exact opposite of Lee, who’s on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to pace and patience. Because of that, it will be fascinating to see who can dictate the tempo of the fight. We expect Amil to march forward and try to force Lee into a firefight, but that could backfire for him as Lee is incredibly dangerous and Amil may end up walking into something or getting taken down and potentially submitted. However, if Lee is forced into a higher paced fight than he’s used to and is unable to find a finish, it will be interesting to see how his cardio holds up. We doubt Lee will want to engage Amil in a brawl, but the smaller cage also leaves him with less room to evade. Because of that, he’ll likely try and get this fight to the ground, where he’ll have a decent shot at locking up a submission, as he’s a BJJ black belt and Amil is just a purple belt. Amil’s insane pace makes this a more volatile matchup with an additional variable to account for, but we think Lee will have a good shot at getting him out of there early and handing Amil the first loss of his career.
Our favorite bet here is “JeongYeong Lee SUB” at +650.
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DFS Implications:
Lee’s potent finishing ability that we saw on the regional scene has yet to translate to the UFC, as both of his fights with the organization ended in lower scoring decision wins. In fairness to him, he made his debut with a torn ACL against a wrestler who wanted to do nothing but try to control him for the entire match and Lee still won a decision there, although only scored 50 DraftKings points in the process. Then he nearly landed a finish in his last fight, but ultimately won a lopsided 30-27 decision instead and only scored 73 points. He lacks the volume to return value in fights that go the distance and at his expensive salary even a finish in the later rounds wouldn’t guarantee him a spot in tournament winning lineups. However, he gets an ultra uptempo matchup here against a brawler in Hyder Amil, which should force Lee to be a little busier. And while Amil has never been finished, or even lost a fight for that matter, we have seen him in some precarious spots in the past against a lower level of competition. Lee has the power to knock Amil out and the grappling to submit him, and the last four opponents who tried to take Amil down were all successful. We also expect the field to chase Amil’s recent scoring explosion, making Lee a good leverage play off of Amil. That adds to Lee’s tournament appeal and he has four wins on his record in under a minute, leaving him with the potential to obtain the Quick Win Bonus. The odds imply Lee has a 64% chance to win, a 38% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Amil was the best play on the slate in his last fight and we told you that going into it. He took on a terrible 0-3 short notice replacement who was moving up a weight class and we knew Amil would fly under the radar after his lackluster decision win on DWCS. He ended up being just 21% owned on DraftKings and just 14% owned on Fanduel, while he scored a slate-leading 131.8 and 150.4 points on the two respective sites. That shows just how massive his scoring potential is, but he’ll face a much tougher test here and we don’t want to get caught chasing his recent results. Amil generally relies on drowning his opponents with pace and pressure, which is great for his scoring potential, but also leaves him open to being countered and taken down. He pushes such a high pace that both he and his opponents tend to gas out in most of his fights. While that has yet to burn him, it’s only a matter of time before his recklessness gets him in trouble and this very well may be the spot that happens. Lee is a taller, longer, and more technical striker, who’s also a BJJ black belt and a dangerous submission threat. Amil is just a purple belt and has been taken down by basically everyone who’s tried and has nearly been submitted at multiple points. Don’t get us wrong, we love Amil’s style and it makes for fun fights and a ton of scoring potential in DFS, but it’s also inherently volatile and if everyone is going to be playing him, we want to lean into that volatility and be on the other side in tournaments. However, at his cheap salary and high projected ownership, he makes sense in low-risk contests, but the best/scariest move in tournaments is to be underweight on him, especially given the size of this smaller slate. With that said, if he does win, he’ll likely end up in tournament winning lineups, so it’s a high-risk, high-reward stance to take and it could certainly backfire. The odds imply Amil has a 36% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Bill Algeo
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Algeo is less than four months removed from the first KO/TKO loss of his career, which came in a terrible stoppage in the first round against Kyle Nelson. Algeo was hurt, but was still on his feet and trying to recover in the center of the Octagon when the ref jumped in. Nelson very well may have finished him in the coming moments, but we’ll never know because the ref decided to insert himself into the fight unnecessarily. Algeo and the crowd immediately protested, as they should have, and Dominick Cruz would have spontaneously combusted if he had been calling the fight. Prior to that, Algeo won a decision win over Alexander Hernandez, who Algeo was able to outland 110-75 in significant strikes and also takedown once on his only attempt, while Hernandez failed to get Algeo down on his only failed attempt. Aleo used his length well and mixed in knees to keep Hernandez uncomfortable and easily cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win. That came after Algeo secured his first UFC submission win when he locked up a rear-naked choke against the highly submittable TJ Brown in the first half of round two after an action-packed start. Preceding that finish, Algeo suffered his only other loss in his last six fights in a split decision against Andre Fili, although even having one judge score the fight for him was generous. Just before that, Algeo notched his only other “finish” in his last 11 fights, in a second round TKO against Herbert Burns, who injured his knee in the fight and simply wouldn’t continue. Algeo had fought to six straight decisions (3-3) leading up to that fight against Burns. He originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2019, but lost a decision to Brendan Loughnane and was forced to return to the regional scene. After winning a decision with CFFC the UFC then brought him on and he traded decision losses and wins for his first four UFC fights, with both of his wins coming against opponents with suspect cardio and both of his losses resulting from his poor defensive wrestling. While Algeo hasn’t won more than two fights in a row since 2018-2019, he’s done a great job of bouncing back from losses in his career and has never dropped two in a row.
Now 18-8 as a pro, Algeo has four wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and seven decision victories. He has one KO/TKO loss, two by submissions, and five decision defeats. After his first two pro fights ended in first round submissions in 2012 (1-1), 22 of his last 24 matches have seen the second round. Eight of his 11 finishes occurred in the second round and six of his last seven fights to end early were stopped in round two (5-1). One of his two submission losses occurred in the first round of his second pro fight, back in 2012, with the other coming in the second round against Shane Burgos in 2014.
Overall, Algeo is a cocky BJJ black belt with terrible defensive wrestling who generally relies on outlasting his opponents to win fights. Between his nine UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Algeo was taken down by his opponents on 25 of 57 attempts (56.1% defense), with 8 of those 10 opponents landing at least one takedown and five of them landing multiple. On the flipside, Algeo landed seven of his own takedowns on 15 attempts in those matches (46.7% accuracy). Algeo sets a high pace, averaging 6.16 SSL/min (most on the slate), and we’ve seen him outlast opponents with cardio concerns, which is how he secured most of his UFC wins. He likes to showboat on the feet, but isn’t an especially dangerous striker.
Dooho Choi
8th UFC Fight (3-3-1)Choi is 17 months removed from a draw against Kyle Nelson, which is Choi’s only fight since 2019. Choi would have won the fight but was deducted a point in the third round for a questionable headbutt, so Nelson was fortunate to walk away with the draw. Choi finished ahead 50-20 in significant strikes and 79-39 in total strikes, but Nelson was able to take him down five times on 10 attempts and finished with five and a half minutes of control time, while Choi never attempted a takedown but did reverse Nelson on the mat once and finished with four minutes of control time. Prior to that draw, Choi hadn’t fought in 38 months following three straight losses, with the last two of those defeats ending in second round knockouts. He had been scheduled to make his return in July 2021 but ended up dropping out due to a shoulder injury. Choi said he was injured going into his last loss, but fought with a torn ACL because he was only allowed to fight in Korea at the time as he sorted out his military exemption. He said he would have pulled out of the fight had the circumstances been different, but he wasn’t sure how many years he would have to wait for another fight. Then he fractured his arm during the fight and dealt with a shoulder injury leading up to his next scheduled match, in addition to a retina issue, so he’s had to deal with a variety of setbacks. While he never had to serve in the military he had to wait four years to finally be granted exemption from service. While his last fight went the distance, the only other time he required the judges since joining the UFC in 2014 was in a 2016 decision loss to Cub Swanson, in a wild fight that was later inducted into the Hall of Fame. Five of his seven UFC fights ended in knockouts (3-2), with all three of those wins coming in round one and both losses ending in round two.
Now 14-4-1 as a pro, Choi has 11 wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and two decision victories. Eleven of his 12 finishes have come in the first two rounds, with eight ending in round one. He’s been knocked out twice, both times in the second round, and has two decision defeats. Choi started his pro career in 2009 at 154 lb, before dropping down to 145 lb in 2010.
Overall, Choi is a powerful striker who’s always looking for early knockouts. He’s rarely looking to grapple and in his seven UFC fights he only landed one takedown on five attempts, all of which occurred against Cub Swanson. We generally see a good amount of striking volume in his matches as he averages 4.74 SSL/min and 4.91 SSA/min. His level of inactivity is obviously concerning, as he’s only fought three times since 2016. However, he did open his own gym in 2020, so he does still appear dedicated to the sport.
Fight Prediction:
Algeo will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while Choi is two years younger than the 35-year-old Algeo.
It’s been over eight years since Choi last won a fight and a year and a half since he last competed. That makes him a tough guy to trust and his current form remains somewhat of a mystery. Algeo’s biggest weakness is his defensive wrestling, but Choi is one of the least likely candidates to capitalize on that, as he’s only landed one takedown in seven UFC fights and didn’t even attempt a takedown in six of those matches. So if anyone is looking to wrestle it should be Algeo and Choi has just a 50% takedown defense. While Algeo suffered a TKO loss earlier this year, that’s the only time he’s ever been finished by strikes and that was a stupidly quick stoppage. Algeo has never lost two fights in a row and has historically done a great job of bouncing back from losses, going 7-0 in that position in the past. He’s the taller, longer, and more active fighter, and will also have a grappling advantage. However, Choi is the more powerful of the two, so Algeo will need to be mindful of the strikes coming back his way. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Algeo find a submission on the mat, most likely in round two, but we’ll say he wins a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Bill Algeo DEC” at +155.
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DFS Implications:
Algeo has averaged a respectable 97 DraftKings in his five UFC wins, but has yet to top 91 points without a finish. While he was able to submit the highly submittable TJ Brown and scored a TKO when Herbert Burns quit, we’re still not overly impressed by Algeo’s finishing abilities, making it tougher for him to return value at his high price tag. However, he’ll have a grappling advantage in this matchup and after suffering the first KO/TKO loss of his career in his last fight, we could see him lean into a more conservative wrestling-heavy approach here. Choi has just a 50% takedown defense and tends to give up his back when he’s returning to his feet, which could present the opportunity for Algeo to lock up a rear-naked choke. Choi also averages 4.91 SSA/min (most on the slate) and this looks like a great spot for Algeo to fill up the stat sheet. So while Algeo has yet to put up any really big scores without a finish, this would be the spot for him to do so if it were ever going to happen. The odds imply Algeo has a 61% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Choi hasn’t won a fight since 2016 and has only even competed once since 2019, but all three of his UFC victories ended in first round knockouts, where he averaged 113 DraftKings points. While he offers next to nothing in terms of wrestling, he averages a respectable 4.74 SSL/min and gets an uptempo matchup here against an opponent in Algeo who averages 4.52 SSA/min and is coming off a first round TKO loss, albeit in a very quick stoppage. Choi’s level of inactivity is concerning, but he is a dangerous striker. Even if his chances of landing a knockout are low, he has a high scoring ceiling when he does win, which at least leaves him in the tournament play discussion. However, we don’t see him scoring well in a decision and even at his cheap price tag he would have a tougher time cracking tournament winning lineups without a finish, unless we get a slate where very few underdogs win. The odds imply Choi has a 39% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Cody Durden
10th UFC Fight (5-3-1)Durden recently had a four fight winning streak snapped in a second round submission loss to Tagir Ulanbekov, who dominated the fight. Ulanbekov knocked Durden down once, took him down twice, and finished with six minutes of control time and five submission attempts. Durden did a decent job of fighting off submission attempts for a while, but eventually succumbed to a rear-naked choke late in round two. Prior to that, Durden won a decision over Jake Hadley, where Durden landed four of his six takedown attempts and finished with seven and a half minutes of control time, while also stuffing all three of Hadley’s attempts. Durden also showed improvements to his striking in that match and finished ahead in significant strikes 38-26. However, Hadley was able to reverse a submission attempt in the second round and then locked in an attempt of his own with a deep armbar that looked like it was going to force a tap. However, Durden was barely able to tough it out and survive the round and then went on to win round three as well. That came after Durden won a wrestling-heavy decision over Charles Johnson, who Durden took down 11 times on 18 attempts with nine and a half minutes of control time. That fight was very similar to Durden’s previous decision win, where he landed 4 of his 8 takedown attempts with 12 and a half minutes of control time against UFC newcomer Carlos Mota. Just before that, Durden landed a 68 second TKO against JP Buys, who went 0-4 in the UFC. Durden’s only other loss in his last seven fights came in a 58 second submission against a debuting Muhammad Mokaev. That came just after Durden won another wrestling-heavy decision, that time against Aoriqileng, who Durden took down five times on 10 attempts with over five and a half minutes of control time. While Durden is 4-1 in his last five fights, he had somewhat of a rocky start to his UFC career, with a draw against Chris Gutierrez in his 2020 debut, followed by a R1 submission loss to Jimmy Flick via Flying Triangle in his next fight.
Now 16-5-1 as a pro, Durden has six wins by KO/TKO, five more by submission, and five decision victories. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted in four of his five losses and also has one decision defeat. All four of his submission losses ended in the first two rounds. Only 8 of his 22 pro fights made it to the third round, but five of his nine UFC fights went the distance. Nine of Durden’s 11 finishes occurred in the first round, while he also has one in each of the later rounds. His UFC debut took place at 135 lb before Durden dropped down to 125 lb, where he’s stayed since. He mostly competed at 135 lb before he joined the UFC, losing his only pre-UFC 125 lb fight in a 2017 decision, leaving him 5-4 at 125 lb in his career, with five of those fights going the distance (4-1), three ending in round one (1-2), and one in a second round loss. So he only has one career finish at 125 lb, which came against an extremely fragile JP Buys and barely even counts.
Overall, Durden is a former state champion high school wrestler who relies heavily on his ground game to win fights, but has also shown some improvements to his striking in his last couple of fights. While he’s a good wrestler, he’s also been prone to getting submitted and he has 13 official submission attempts against him in the UFC, with three of those resulting in losses. In his nine UFC fights, he landed 29 takedowns on 58 attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down four times on 12 opponent attempts (66.7% defense). Durden has looked fatigued late in fights in the past, but has also shown the ability to continue to wrestle even when he’s visibly tired. He doesn’t land much striking volume, averaging just 3.16 SSL/min and 2.89 SSA/min, and has never landed more than 60 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 66.
Bruno Silva
7th UFC Fight (3-2, NC)Despite being on a three-fight winning streak, Silva continues to struggle with inactivity and now hasn’t competed in 16 months after locking up a second round submission against Tyson Nam back in March 2023. And leading up to that win he hadn’t fought in 22 months after he landed a pair of knockouts in 2021 against two absolutely terrible opponents in Victor Rodriguez and JP Buys. While those fights couldn’t have gone much better for Silva, he had a rocky start to his UFC career, as he lost his first three fights with the organization. However, the third round submission loss in his UFC debut was later overturned to a “No Contest” after his opponent, Khalid Taha, failed a drug test. Silva then lost a pair of close decisions to tough opponents in David Dvorak and Tagir Ulanbekov.
Now 13-5-2 as a pro, Silva has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2016), submitted once (R3 2011), and has three decision losses. He also has two split/majority draws on his record, with one of those coming against UFC fighter Casey Kenney. Silva has fought at both 135 lb and 125 lb in the past. He made his UFC debut at 135 lb, but then dropped back down to 125 lb, where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Silva is a well-rounded fighter and BJJ black belt who loves to throw a ton of heavy leg kicks. While Silva fights aggressively, he only averages 3.05 SSL/min and 3.09 SSA/min and has yet to land more than 47 significant strikes in a fight or absorb more than 67. And while he landed nine takedowns in his first three UFC fights, he only landed one in his last three matches. Looking at his six UFC fights as a whole, Silva landed 10 takedowns on 33 attempts (30.3% accuracy), while he’s been taken down on 5 of 14 opponent attempts (64.3% defense). The only fighter to get Silva down was Tagir Ulanbekov, who landed 5 of his 11 attempts, while Silva’s other five UFC opponents failed to land any of their three attempts. Silva had been training at Fight Ready with Henry Cejudo since 2015, although recently moved to American Top Team in Florida after his last fight and will now be taking on a teammate at his new gym.
Fight Prediction:
Durden will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while also being a year younger than the 34-year-old Silva.
These two are now teammates at American Top Team, which always adds an interesting dynamic to fights and they are literally sharing a mat while they train to fight one another. It’s a big enough gym that those things are bound to happen and they aren’t short of training partners, but that does remove the element of surprise to a large extent and these two should be very familiar with each other. It’s no secret that Durden is always looking to wrestle, while Silva will be trying to beat him up with leg kicks and keep the fight standing. While Durden has been prone to getting submitted and Silva is a BJJ black belt coming off a submission win, you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find Silva’s second most recent submission win. Durden’s never been knocked out and Silva’s only career knockout loss was all the way back in 2016, and if Silva can’t lock up a submission then we expect this to go the distance. The results on the scorecards will hinge on how Silva’s takedown defense holds up, as he’s the superior striker and should be able to win if he can keep the fight mostly standing. Silva also looks to have a better gas tank, which will make it tougher for Durden to win the third round and leaves him more reliant on winning both of the first two rounds to get his hand raised. So if either of those first two rounds are close, then it makes sense to live bet Silva if you can get a decent number. We’re expecting this to be a close fight where Durden is able to find some wrestling success early, but may struggle to complete takedowns late. When you combine that with Silva’s striking advantage, a close decision could come down to how the judges weigh damage versus takedowns and control, which has recently been favoring the striker but is still wildly inconsistent. Ultimately, Silva is the more likely of the two to find a finish, while Durden has a higher chance of winning a decision, but is far from a lock if this goes the distance. That makes it a trickier spot to bet/predict, but the single most likely outcome is a Durden decision win, as the odds indicate. However, there’s not much meat on that bone to bet, so we’d rather take our chances with some of Silva’s longer props.
Our favorite bet here is “Bruno Silva SUB” at +600.
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DFS Implications:
Durden has averaged 101 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, despite four of those going the distance. He scored a slate-breaking 129 points in his second most recent victory, where he landed a career best 11 takedowns against Charles Johnson, more than doubling his previous high. However, he only scored 84 and 86 points respectively in his other two most recent decision wins, while scoring 93 points in the first decision win of his career. The key difference between those matchups is that he was facing a striker when he scored 129 points and was facing fellow grapplers in his lower scoring wins. So you should generally temper expectations with him when he’s facing grapplers and hammer him when he’s going up against pure strikers. Silva is kind of a hybrid, as he’s a BJJ black belt who wrestles some, but is also often content with keeping fights standing. So it’s a little bit less cut and dry in this matchup and only one of Silva’s six UFC opponents got him down, although none of his other opponents even attempted more than a single takedown. That leaves some uncertainty surrounding Silva’s defensive wrestling at this stage of his career, but it doesn’t really look like a smash spot for Durden. In the one fight that Silva got taken down, Tagir Ulanbekov only scored 85 DraftKings points and 78 points on FanDuel, despite getting Silva down five times. So while Durden will have a solid wrestling-driven floor in a win, a ceiling performance is less likely. He’s cheap enough that he could still sneak into winning lineups even with a huge score, if he once again scores in the mid eighties then he’ll likely be left out of winning lineups. And while Durden has 11 finishes on his record, all but one of those came on the regional scene and the other was against a terrible JP Buys. So it would be surprising to see Durden end this one early. The odds imply Durden has a 50% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Silva has finished three straight opponents in the first two rounds, averaging 117 DraftKings points in the process. While he scored a ridiculous 127 and 132 points in two of those finishes, keep in mind those came in two of the best spots imaginable, against ultra low-level opponents in JP Buys and Victor Rodriguez. Silva then locked up a second round submission win in a tougher matchup in his last fight, but only scored 92 DraftKings points in the process. All of his fights have been lower volume and he only averages 3.05 SSL/min and 3.09 SSA/min. And while he landed nine takedowns in his first three UFC fights, he only landed one in his last three. Now he’s facing a wrestler in Durden, and it’s tougher to know if he’ll even look for takedowns, let alone land any. That likely leaves him reliant on landing a well timed finish to score well, and while Durden has been prone to getting submitted, he’s never been knocked out and Silva only has one submission win since 2014. And while Silva is affordably priced, a finish in the later rounds is less likely to score very well and could still result in him being left out of the optimal lineup on a higher scoring slate or one where we have multiple underdogs win. We also don’t see Silva scoring enough to be useful in a decision win, as Durden will be looking to take him down and control him and Silva only scored 45 and 39 points in his two decision losses. That leaves him reliant on a well timed finish to score really well and his past scoring success was bolstered by extremely favorable matchups in his two explosion spots. The odds imply Silva has a 50% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Kaynan Kruschewsky
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Kruschewsky recently made his UFC debut on just four days’ notice in a 165 lb Catchweight match and proceeded to get face-planted in the first round by an opponent in Elves Brener who entered with just two knockout wins on his record. Just a month and a half prior to that, Kruschewsky locked up a first round submission win on DWCS. That was Kruschewsky’s fourth straight finish at the time, and he won the Jungle Fight Lightweight belt and then defended it once just before going on DWCS. Both of those title fight wins made it into the championship rounds, before Kruschewsky secured late finishes with a fourth round guillotine and a fifth round TKO. He also lost a three round decision in 2022 to Damien Lapilus, the brother of UFC fighter Taylor Lapilus, but the results were overturned to a No Contest after both fighters failed a drug test.
Now 15-2 plus a No Contest as a pro, Kruschewsky has four wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and two decision victories. Both of his official pro losses ended in first round knockouts (2019 & 2023), although he also had a decision loss that was later overturned to a No Contest. His last five fights all ended early and he’s only required the judges three times in 18 pro fights.
Overall, Kruschewsky is a Muay Thai and BJJ black belt who stands very flat footed and doesn’t have a ton of movement. He can get pretty wild with his striking at times, although he’s improved on that over the years and is more technical now than he was a few years ago. He seems decent everywhere, but doesn’t stand out as being exceptional anywhere. While the majority of his wins have come by submission, he doesn’t attempt a ton of takedowns and is generally content with keeping things on the feet. He’s pretty aggressive and lands a good amount of striking volume, but that can also get him in trouble and leave him open to being countered and knocked out. After his last fight, Kruschewsky went and trained at Xtreme Couture and has since been training with the Fighting Nerds, after previously training at the lesser known Revira Black Team, so he’s doing the right things to try and learn and improve as a fighter as he branches out to find higher level training partners. We’re curious to see what improvements he’s made and how he looks with a full camp to prepare.
Kurt Holobaugh
7th UFC Fight (1-5)Holobaugh is coming off his first loss since 2019, where he got dominated on the mat for three rounds by Trey Ogden, who took Holobaugh down three times and controlled him for 11 minutes. Holobaugh was never able to get much going in the fight and all three judges had it 30-27 for Ogden. Prior to that, Holobaugh won The Ultimate Fighter with a second round submission in the finals against Austin Hubbard, who had won the first round on all three scorecards after taking Holobaugh down twice. Following a failed takedown attempt from Hubbard in round two, Holobaugh took his back and progressed through a series of submission attempts, from rear-naked choke, to armbar, to triangle choke, before Hubbard finally tapped. Leading up to that finish, Holobaugh landed two more second round finishes in the opening two rounds of the show, although both of those results go down as exhibition matches and don’t show up on his official pro record. Before going on TUF in early 2023, Holobaugh didn’t compete at all in 2022 or the second half of 2021. It sounded like he was contemplating retirement as he was having a tough time getting fights on the regional scene. This is actually his third stint with the UFC. Holobaugh originally made his UFC debut all the way back in 2013 at 145 lb after Strikeforce merged with the UFC, but lost a decision and was immediately released. After going 8-2 in his next 10 fights on the regional scene, Holobaugh took part in the inaugural episode of DWCS in 2017, where he landed a first round knockout in a 145 lb fight against Matt Bessette. However, the results were overturned to a No Contest and Holobaugh was suspended for nine months when it was discovered that Holobaugh used an unauthorized IV to rehydrate after weigh-ins. After serving his suspension, the UFC brought Holobaugh back on to face a debuting Raoni Barcelos, who knocked Holobaugh out in the third round of an action-packed fight. Holobaugh compounded the loss when he got submitted by Shane Burgos in the first round of his next fight, although Holobaugh dropped Burgos before getting armbarred as he went in for the kill on the mat. Holobaugh then moved up to 155 lb in 2019 (where he’s remained since) and lost a decision to Thiago Moises, which resulted in Holobaugh getting released from the UFC for the second time. He bounced back with a pair of knockout wins on the regional scene in 2020 and 2021, but then took a year and a half off before going on TUF in early 2023. He was losing his first fight on the show before landing a submission in the second round to steal victory from the jaws of defeat. He then took part in a wild brawl against Jason Knight, controlling the center of the Octagon and pushing Knight back until he eventually knocked him out in the second round to secure a spot in the finals.
Now 20-8 as a pro (not counting his two “exhibition” matches on TUF), Holobaugh has seven wins by KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (R3 2018), submitted once (R1 2018), and has six decision losses. Nine of his last 11 official pro fights ended early, as did each of his first two fights on TUF, which go down as exhibition matches and don’t show up on his pro record. While he rarely requires the scorecards, Holobaugh is 0-3 with the judges in the UFC and he lost the last four decisions he’s been to regardless of the organization. The last time he came out victorious in a fight that went the distance was in a 2015 split decision against Desmond Green. Holobaugh has competed at both 145 lb and 155 lb, but he’s been at 155 lb since 2019.
Overall, Holobaugh is an aggressive 37-year-old striker who’s trying to make one last UFC run before hanging it up. He’s a BJJ black belt and is dangerous on the mat both on his back or from top position. However, he’s not a great wrestler and he’s been controlled on the mat for extended periods of time at multiple points in his career. Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS match, Holobaugh landed 4 of his 11 takedown attempts (36.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 13 of their 24 attempts (45.8% defense). He also got taken down three times on six attempts and controlled for nearly 12 minutes in his lone Strikeforce match, which the UFC includes in his official stats. While his career striking numbers don’t jump off the page at 4.37 SSL/min and 4.07 SSA/min, when he gets an opponent who’s willing to stand and trade with him, we get unadulterated violence. His overall striking numbers are dragged down by the time he’s spent being controlled by his opponents. Holobaugh trains at his small home gym in Louisiana, but has spent some time cross training at Kill Cliff FC in the past.
Fight Prediction:
Kruschewsky will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while also being four years younger than the 37-year-old Holobaugh.
Neither of these two require the judges very often and this one sets up for violence. The last thing people will remember about Kruschewsky is him getting face planted in his UFC debut in front of his home Brazilian crowd, but in fairness to him he stepped into that fight on just a few days’ notice and seemed to be coming off the couch. We expect him to give a better account of himself here with a full camp to prepare, but he still needs to prove he belongs in the UFC. Meanwhile, Holobaugh has already had six UFC fights, but only won one of those, so he also comes in with a lot to prove. Holobaugh’s biggest weakness has been his defensive wrestling, but we’ve never seen Kruschewsky land more than a single takedown in any of the regional tape we watched, even though he is a BJJ black belt, as is Holobaugh as well. While they have 19 submission wins between them, neither of them normally come in with super wrestling-heavy approaches and they’re more opportunistic with their submission attempts. They’re both often content with keeping fights standing and duking it out on the feet, which seemingly lowers the chances for this to end by submission and increases the chances of a knockout, although a club and sub is always possible. Holobaugh has been the more durable of the two, but is quickly approaching his 38th birthday and age could soon become a factor for him. Nevertheless, he’s had the tougher strength of schedule and still seems to have plenty left in the tank. While we have no confidence in Holobaugh’s ability to win a decision or stay off his back against wrestlers, we like his finishing upside in this matchup and we’ll say he knocks Kruschewsky out.
Our favorite bet here is “Kurt Holobaugh ITD” at +240.
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DFS Implications:
Kruschewsky has decent power and is also a BJJ black belt, so he has multiple ways to finish fights and his last five wins all came early, but he was also violently knocked out in the first round of his recent UFC debut. In fairness to him, he took that fight on just a few days’ notice and didn’t appear to be in the best shape, so he should give a better account of himself here with a full camp to prepare. While he’s a BJJ black belt with nine submission wins on his record, he doesn’t land many takedowns, so he’s not the ideal candidate to capitalize on Holobaugh’s poor defensive wrestling. Kruschewsky can also get a little wild on the feet at times and both of his official pro losses ended in first round knockouts. That leaves him with a non-existent scoring floor, but this is still a high-upside matchup. We’ve seen Holobaugh throw down in crazy wars and also get controlled on the mat for extended periods of time, and Holobaugh has also been finished twice in the UFC and is quickly approaching his 38th birthday. So Kruschewsky has a wide range of scoring outcomes and we don’t expect him to be overly popular at his higher price tag, as the line has moved against him and he’s coming off a bad loss. That adds to his tournament appeal and whoever wins here should score well. The odds imply Kruschewsky has a 55% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Holobaugh is on his third UFC stint and is just 1-5 with the organization. He’s coming off a decision loss where he was dominated on the mat for three rounds and he’s typically losing on the scorecards in fights. He hasn’t won a decision since 2015 and his defensive wrestling is terrible, although he is pretty dangerous off his back. His only UFC win ended in a second round submission that was good for 101 DraftKings points, while he put up 32 and 45 points respectively in his two decision losses. Between his six UFC fights, his DWCS appearance, and a Strikeforce match that shows up on his UFC stats, he only landed four total takedowns and only once topped 61 significant strikes. However, he does have the ability to put up big striking numbers when given the right matchup and Kruschewsky has looked pretty aggressive and hittable, while also not looking to wrestle a ton. So this looks like a high-upside matchup for both fighters and Kruschewsky has been knocked out twice in the past, both times in the first round. And at Holobaugh’s cheap price tag, he doesn’t need to put up a monster score to end up in winning lineups, but he is generally reliant on landing a finish. The odds imply Holobaugh has a 45% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Steve Garcia
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Quietly on a three-fight winning streak, Steve is coming off a second round knockout win over Melquizael Costa, who’s normally a flashy kicker but wanted no part of a striking battle with Steve. Costa immediately looked to grapple in the fight and hung onto Steve for dear life along the fence for the entire first round. He tried to get back to that in round two, but Steve wasn’t having any part of it and ended up in top position after a failed Costa takedown attempt and then landed brutal ground and pound until the fight was stopped. Steve did go for a choke before resuming elbows, which is only his second submission attempt in the UFC and he’s never completed one in his career. That fight was originally scheduled to take place at 145 lb, but Steve got sick cutting weight the UFC pushed it back a week and moved it to 155 lb. Prior to that, Steve was in a back-and-forth banger with Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, where Steve got dropped 45 seconds into the first round of his last fight, but was able to survive off his back and recover. He then flipped the script late in the round as he rocked Nuerdanbieke and then closed the show in the opening minute of round two with a combination of body shots. That came after Steve dropped down from 155 lb to 145 lb for the first time in the UFC and knocked out Chase Hooper in just 92 seconds, landing three knockdowns in the brief fight, which is the only time Hooper has been finished in his career. Four months prior to that, Steve suffered the first KO loss of his career against a debuting Maheshate at 155 lb, who knocked Steve out in just 74 seconds. Prior to that defeat, Steve landed a second round TKO win against a fragile Charlie Ontiveros, after losing a decision to Luis Pena in his 2020 UFC debut. Steve’s last seven wins all ended by knockout in under a round and a half, with three in round one and four in the first half of round two. Four of his last five knockouts ended between the 0:36 and 2:27 mark of round two.
Steve originally tried to make his way into the UFC through DWCS in 2019, but despite landing a first round knockout victory he still wasn’t rewarded with a UFC contract after missing weight by 3.5 lb for the 135 lb fight. After not getting a contract, Steve then took a fight in the LFA in January 2020 against Jose Mariscal up at 145 lb and landed another TKO, albeit in a quick/bad stoppage. Despite moving up to 145 lb, Steve again missed weight, checking in a pound and a half over the limit. After fighting most of his career at 135 lb, with just a few fights at 145 lb up to that point, Steve made his short notice UFC debut against Luis Pena in February 2020 up at Lightweight 155 lb, which was the first time Steve had ever competed at the weight class. Pena smothered Steve on the ground for the entire fight, finishing with over 14 minutes of control time on his way to winning a decision. Steve then took 20 months off before returning to the Octagon in October 2021 when he knocked out Ontiveros.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Steve has 12 wins by KO/TKO and three decisions. Five of those knockouts occurred in the first round, six ended in the first half of round two and one came in round three. However, that lone third round knockout was all the way back in 2013 in his second pro fight and his last 10 finishes all occurred in under a round and a half. He’s also been knocked out once himself (R1 2022) and submitted another time (R1 2018), with both of the losses ending in under two minutes. The KO came in his last 155 lb fight against a debuting fighter and the submission was against a highly suspect Aalon Cruz in 2018. Steve’s other three pro losses all ended in decisions. Steve spent most of his pre-UFC career at 135 lb, but missed weight so many times he moved all the way up to 155 lb for his first three UFC fights, before moving down to 145 lb in 2022. His last fight got moved up to 155 lb after it got pushed back a week, but he’ll be returning to 145 lb here.
Overall, Steve is an offensively minded brawler who throws punches with ill intentions as he looks to knockout every opponent he faces. His background is in kickboxing and after transitioning to MMA he spent a good chunk of time in Bellator before working his way into the UFC. He’s capable of taking fights to the mat and finishing opponents with ground and pound, but that’s essentially the extent of his grappling from what we’ve seen, although he does have two official submission attempts in the UFC and said he almost had to bust out his white belt in his last match. He’s a kill or be killed type of fighter and 14 of his 20 pro fights ended early, while he’s only been to one decision since 2018. While he did get controlled on the mat for essentially his entire 2020 UFC debut, he’s only been taken down three times in the UFC on 21 attempts from his opponents (85.7% defense). On the other side of things, he landed 4 of his own 7 takedown attempts (57.1% accuracy). While he’s good at knocking opponents out, he’s also been incredibly prone to getting knocked down himself and in his last five fights, Steve landed five knockdowns, while his opponents knocked him down five times as well. So his fights are always dicey, but there’s rarely a dull moment. The last time Steve prepared to fight at 145 lb he dropped out just before weigh-ins and the matchup was pushed back a week and moved up to 155 lb, so obviously he’s a guy to keep an eye on as he once again tries to make 145 lb.
SeungWoo Choi
10th UFC Fight (4-5)Choi is 11 months removed from a decision win over Jarno Errens, which snapped a three-fight losing streak and is Choi’s only win since 2021. It wasn’t all smooth sailing either, as Errens nearly knocked Choi out in the second round with a perfectly placed uppercut. However, Errens went to the ground with Choi after dropping him, giving him time to recover. Choi then returned the favor in round three as he nearly finished Errens with a leg kick, but also foolishly went to the mat instead of forcing a stand up that could have stopped the fight. That fight notably took place in Singapore and Choi had the full crowd support. Prior to that, Choi was knocked out in the first round by decision grinder Michael Trizano, who has never finished anybody else in his other six UFC fights. That fight started fast with a rare double knockdown 20 seconds into the first round and was fireworks for as long as it lasted, as both guys had the other hurt. However, Trizano was fighting for a new contract, in front of his home crowd, with a baby on the way, and it was just his night as he landed the final blow that knocked Choi down late in the round and pounced on him for the stoppage. That came after Choi took part in another wild brawl and nearly got knocked out again, but survived to lose a split-decision to Josh Culibao. And just before that, Choi was submitted in the second round by Alex Caceres, in a fight where Choi nearly landed a first round knockout before landing an illegal strike that paused the action and gave Caceres time to recover. The last time Choi finished anybody was in a 2021 R1 knockout win over Julian Erosa and there have been nine total knockdowns in Choi’s last five fights, with him landing four of those.
Now 11-6 as a pro, Choi has six wins by KO/TKO and five decision victories. Four of his knockouts ended in round one, another came in round two, and one ended in round four. He’s also been knocked out twice in the first round himself, submitted twice in the later rounds, and has two decision losses. Three of his last four losses ended early and he was nearly finished in the other one. While he’s only landed one knockout in nine UFC fights, prior to joining the UFC, five of his seven wins were by knockout, including three in the first round.
Overall, Choi is a talented but one-dimensional striker and has generally struggled in grappling exchanges. In his nine UFC fights, he landed 6 of his 11 takedown attempts (54.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 13 of their 43 attempts (69.8% defense). While he’s been involved in some crazy brawls lately, he still only averages 3.48 SSL/min and 3.02 SSA/min and only once landed more than 56 significant strikes in a UFC fight, while never absorbing more than 51. He trains with the Korean Zombie in South Korea so it’s not exactly surprising that he has kind of a reckless style and likes to put on a show. He’ll face a fellow brawler here in an all action matchup.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” tall, but Steve will have a 1” reach advantage.
This sets up as the best fight on the card and should be non-stop action from the jump. They’re both exciting brawlers who have no problem taking risks and enjoy putting on a show. They each throw with a lot of power, and neither of them are very durable, which should result in someone getting knocked out within a round and a half. While they’ll each mix in occasional takedowns, it’s rare to see either of them wrestle a ton and they have zero submission wins between them. So this will likely just come down to whose chin holds up longer and it won’t be shocking to see either guy knock out the other. With that said, we agree with the odds that Steve is the more likely of the two to get the job done, even if he does seemingly get rocked in almost all of his fights.
Our favorite bet here is “Steve Garcia R1/2 KO” at +160.
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DFS Implications:
Steve rarely requires the judges and his last seven wins all ended by knockout in under a round and a half. He averaged 110 DraftKings points in his four UFC victories, while his opponent in his last loss scored 113 points. So the winner in his fights typically scores well and we always want to be targeting his matches. His last two wins didn’t result in massive scores, as they each came early in round two and “only” returned totals of 95 and 94 DraftKings points. However, he has shown a monster ceiling in the past, scoring 133 and 116 points in his first two UFC victories. He has multi knockdown upside and will also unload with vicious ground and pound when he finds himself in top position on the mat. Choi has been finished four times in his career and is just 1-3 in his last four outings, in addition to getting knocked down in his last win. So there’s no reason to think Garcia can’t land another knockout, he just needs to avoid getting finished himself. His durability has been his biggest concern and he’s been knocked down five times in his last five fights. That leaves him with an uncertain floor, but to his credit, he’s only been knocked out once in his career—which almost seems like a misprint everytime we see it. Steve pulled off the upset as the underdog in each of his last three fights, while he got knocked out the last time he was the favorite. He steps in as the favorite here, which does present the possibility for him to get priced out of the optimal lineup with another poorly timed early second round finish, but we still love his upside in this matchup. The odds imply Steve has a 57% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.
Choi is a solid striker, but his one-dimensional fighting style and lack of volume generally leaves him reliant on landing an early knockout to really score well. And the only time he’s knocked anyone out in the UFC was in 2021 when he finished a fragile Julian Erosa in the first round. However, he’s come close a few other times, he just couldn’t quite get the job done. He gets a volatile matchup here against a fellow chinny brawler, leaving Choi with a non-existent floor, but a high ceiling. Steve has been finished twice in the past and both of those losses ended in under two minutes. He’s also been knocked down five times in his last five fights, which is really encouraging for Choi’s upside if he can pull off the upset. It’s not an overly complicated fight, as we expect these two to come out and swing hammers at each other until someone dies. The winner should put up a big score, while the loser may struggle to surpass single digits. That makes both of them great large-field tournament options, but riskier plays in smaller contests. The odds imply Choi has a 43% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Virna Jandiroba
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Fresh off a decision win over Loopy Godinez, Jandiroba has gone the distance in four straight fights, winning the last three of those. Her only early win in his last six outings was a 2021 post R2 TKO win over Kanako Murata, who had her arm broken from a Jandiroba submission attempt. In Jandiroba’s most recent win, she was able to take Godinez down twice on nine attempts and control her for six and a half minutes, while also finishing with three official submission attempts and a reversal. That came 10 months after Jandiroba won another wrestling-heavy decision over Marina Rodriguez in May 2023, where Jandiroba landed three takedowns and controlled Rodriguez for 12 of the 15 minutes. Jandiroba had then been scheduled to face Tatiana Suarez in August 2023, but suffered a knee injury that required surgery and forced her to the sideline. The win over Rodriguez came almost exactly a year after Jandiroba executed a similar game plan against Angella Hill, where Jandiroba won another wrestling-heavy decision, landing three of her eight takedown attempts with seven minutes of control time. Prior to that, Jandiroba lost a decision to a fellow grappler in Amanda Ribas, who Jandiroba was only able to takedown once on eight attempts. Jandiroba’s other two UFC losses also ended in decisions against fellow grapplers in Carla Esparza and Mackenzie Dern.
Now 20-3 as a pro, Jandiroba has one win by TKO (Post R2 2021), 13 submissions, and six decision victories. Her lone TKO win would have gone down as a submission, but her opponent never tapped to the armbar that broke her arm and eventually forced the stoppage. Eight of her submission wins ended in the first round, four came in round two, and one occurred in round three. Jandiroba has never been finished, with all three of her losses going the distance. Prior to joining the UFC, Jandiroba won 14 straight fights, with 11 of those coming by submission. Her last 12 finishes have all come in the first two rounds.
This will be the third five-round fight of Jandiroba’s career, but first in the UFC. She fought for the vacant Invicta Strawweight belt back in 2018 and won a wrestling-heavy split decision over Mizuki Inoue, who also went on to join the UFC. We have no idea how that decision was split and Jandiroba dominated the fight. Jandiroba then defended the belt six months later and locked up a submission in the second round. So only once has she been past the third round in her career, but she showed the ability to go five rounds and win a 25 minute decision.
Overall, Jandiroba is a dangerous BJJ black belt with good wrestling, who has also improved her striking in recent years. In her nine UFC fights, she landed 17 of her 47 takedown attempts (36.2% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 6 of their 23 attempts (73.9% defense). She only averages 2.30 SSL/min and 2.96 SSA/min and has never landed more than 63 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 88. Jandiroba is getting up there in age and recently turned 36 in May, but has shown no signs of slowing down. She has never lost a fight to a striker, with all three of her career defeats coming against fellow grapplers. She’ll face a dangerous striker in Lemos here.
Amanda Lemos
12th UFC Fight (8-3)After losing a five-round decision to Zhang Weili in her long awaited title shot, Lemos recently bounced back with a close three-round decision win over Mackenzie Dern. Lemos got taken down once, reversed twice, and controlled for six minutes in the fight, but did a good job of beating up Dern’s lead leg and also dropped her in round two, nearly finding a finish. Despite getting taken down and controlled for half of the first round, all three judges gave the first two rounds to Lemos and the third to Dern. Lemos was originally scheduled to face Tatiana Suarez there, but Suarez pulled out and Dern was announced as the replacement about a month out. In her previous loss to Weili, Lemos got dominated by Zhang Weili on the mat for five rounds. Zhang took her down six times on seven attempts and finished with 16 minutes of control time, while leading in strikes 296-29 in the extremely lopsided affair. Prior to that, Lemos had only been taken down twice in her first nine UFC fights combined, which just shows how far ahead Weili is from the rest of the division. Leading up to that loss, Lemos landed a third round TKO win over Marina Rodriguez, who had previously never been finished in her career. That was only the second time in Lemos’ career and the first in the UFC that she landed a finish beyond the seven minute mark in a fight. And after not landing a takedown in her previous five fights, Lemos was able to take Rodriguez down and control her for a few minutes on the mat. She also showed improved cardio in the match and despite already being 36 years old at the time, it appeared she was improving aspects of her game. Just before that, Lemos locked up a second round guillotine against Michelle Waterson-Gomez, after getting submitted herself by Jessica Andrade in the first round of her previous fight. That’s the only time Lemos has ever been submitted. The only other time she’s been finished was in a second round TKO in her 2017 UFC debut, which took place at 135 lb. A few months after that 2017 defeat Lemos was hit with a lengthy suspension when she tested positive for steroids and ended up taking 29 months off before returning to the Octagon in 2019. During her time away, she dropped two weight classes and returned at 115 lb, after clearly looking undersized at 135 lb. She won five straight at the new weight class, including three first round finishes, before suffering her first 115 lb loss against Andrade.
Now 14-3-1 as a pro, Lemos has eight wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and three decision victories. Eight of her 11 finishes occurred in the first round, while she also has one in round two and two in round three. Her last two early wins both came in the later rounds. Two of her three losses also ended early, with a second round TKO and a first round submission. The only time she lost a decision was to Weili for the Strawweight belt. Only four of her 11 UFC fights required the judges.
This will be the 4th five-round fight of Lemos’ career. The first was in April 2022, and Lemos got submitted in the first round by Jessica Andrade. The second was in November 2022 and Lemos landed an early third round TKO against Marina Rodriguez. And the most recent was in August 2023 where Lemos lost a five-round decision. So she’s just 1-2 in five-round fights and has only been past the third round once, where she lost a decision.
Overall, Lemos is a violent finisher who throws every shot with violent intentions and when she locks up a guillotine, she’s looking to take home a souvenir. She’s historically been the most dangerous in round one, but she’s shown improved cardio in her last few fights and her last four and five of her last six fights made it to the second round, with four of those seeing round three and three going the distance. The last time she finished anybody in the first round was all the way back in July 2021. Lemos is a powerful but patient striker who relies more on landing big shots than a ton of volume, but once she gets an opponent hurt she’ll unload to try and finish fights. She only averages 3.43 SSL/min and 4.21 SSA/min, but she’s landed six knockdowns in the UFC, which you don’t see as often at 115 lb. She’ll also look to lock up submissions on the mat, and loves to defend takedowns with guillotines. Now 37 years old, Lemos got a late start in MMA as she didn’t turn pro until 2014 when she was already 27 years old. That could mean she has more tread left on the tires than your typical 37-year-old fighter. While Lemos has landed 7 takedowns on 11 attempts (63.6% accuracy) in her 11 UFC fights, four of those came in her first three UFC matches and she’s gone just 3 for 7 on her attempts in her last eight matches, failing to even attempt a takedown in five of those. On the other side of things, she’s been taken down by her opponents on 9 of their 21 attempts (57.1% defense), but only Zhang was able to take her down more than once in a fight. Lemos had a really solid 81% takedown defense before her fight against Zhang, so her numbers are somewhat skewed from that one poor performance against the current champion. Now Lemos will face another dangerous grappler, so it will be interesting to see how her takedown defense holds up in the the smaller cage at the Apex.
Fight Prediction:
Lemos will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while Jandiroba is a year younger than the 37-year-old Lemos.
This is a fairly straightforward striker versus grappler matchup, where Jandiroba will be looking to get the fight to the ground and Lemos will be trying to punch her head into the bleachers and look for opportunistic guillotine opportunities. It would be pretty shocking to see a high-level black belt like Jandiroba fall for a guillotine, which likely leaves Lemos reliant on landing a knockout to win the fight. Jandiroba has shown good enough wrestling that we expect her to be able to get Lemos down and control her, although whether or not she can lock up a submission is a tougher question to answer. Jandiroba hasn’t submitted anybody since 2020, despite having 13 submission wins on her record. And Lemos has only been submitted once in her career and survived five rounds on her back against Weili. So there’s a good chance that Lemos can at least survive even if she does get taken down, increasing the chances of a Jandiroba wrestling-heavy decision win. Lemos is always live for a finish and hits harder than anybody at 115 lb, but Jandiroba has never been finished and Lemos will likely have limited opportunities to land a knockout blow before getting taken down. The smaller cage should benefit Jandiroba, as it leaves Lemos with less room to evade takedown attempts and we’ll say Jandiroba wins a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Virna Jandiroba DEC” at +280.
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DFS Implications:
Jandiroba has averaged 90 DraftKings points in her six UFC wins, with her first three UFC victories all ending early and her last three all going the distance. She’s shown a solid scoring floor on DraftKings in fights that have gone the distance, averaging 85 DraftKings points in her three UFC three-round decisions. However, she only topped 80 points in one of those, which was when she scored 95 points in a dominant wrestling performance against Marina Rodriguez. She didn’t even come close to returning a useful score on FanDuel in any of those decision victories, averaging just 55 points and failing to top 65 in any of them. And if we extend her numbers in those fights over the course of five rounds, she would have averaged 121 DraftKings points, but just 79 points on FanDuel. That leaves her reliant on a finish to score well on FanDuel, but she has a really solid scoring floor and ceiling on DraftKings if she can keep up her normal pace for an additional two rounds. And considering that 70% of her career wins ended early, she still has solid upside on both sites, she’s just a much better/safer play on DraftKings. Also encouraging is that she’s never been finished, although she’s also never faced anyone that hits as hard as Lemos. Jandiroba is 36 years old, but she’s yet to show any signs of decline and her wrestling has looked great in each of her last three fights. Lemos got dominated on the mat by Weili in her second most recent fight, where the champion scored an other-worldy 191 DraftKings points and 166 points on FanDuel. While you certainly shouldn’t expect that sort of face-melting performance from Jandiroba, it’s encouraging nonetheless. The odds imply Jandiroba has a 54% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Lemos has essentially been a R1 finish or bust fighter when it comes to DFS and she only scored 70 and 83 DraftKings points respectively in her last two finishes, both of which occurred in the later rounds. She also averaged just 78 DraftKings points in her three UFC three-round decision wins and amazingly only scored 12 points in a five-round decision loss to Weili. While the first decision win of Lemos’ career scored 91 points, her last two decisions only returned scores of 75 and 68 points, despite Lemos also landing a knockdown in each of those. Even if we extend her numbers in those last two decisions over the course of five rounds, she would still only be looking at 105 and 93 points respectively. While a similar score here could still be enough at her cheaper price tag, it would also require her to keep up the same pace for two extra rounds, while also landing a knockdown or two. And considering she’s going against a really talented grappler who will be looking to take her down, control her, and hunt for submissions, this looks like a bad stylistic matchup for Lemos to win a decision or score well even if she does. However, if she can keep the fight standing, she has a major striking advantage and will have a shot at handing Jandiroba her first early loss. And if she can land a well timed knockout, she’s shown massive scoring potential in the past, with multi-knockdown upside, leaving her as a boom or bust option in a bad matchup. The odds imply Lemos has a 46% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
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Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
Virna Jandiroba OVER 2.5 TDs
