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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Dean Barry
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Barry is making his UFC debut with an abbreviated 4-1 record, with all four of his wins coming by R1 KO and his lone loss ending in an early second round submission. He’s a former karate and kickboxing champion who loves to keep fights at distance and throw a ton of kicks and he’s a one-dimensional striker who offers nothing in terms of grappling. He’ll be in real trouble the first time he faces a grappler in the UFC.
This is the third time this fight has been scheduled in the last 15 months, with each guy withdrawing once in 2021. In the meantime, Barry took one more fight on the regional scene and won with a 21 second TKO against a short notice opponent who shouldn’t have been in there and entered with a laughable 6-30 “pro” record. Barry’s other three wins came against opponents who entered with records of 1-1, 1-1, and 7-1, so he has one career victory against an opponent with a winning record.
Mike Jackson
3rd UFC Fight (0-1, NC)A photographer for the LFA and MMA media member, Jackson made his pro and UFC debut in February 2016 against Mickey Gall and got dropped and then choked out in just 45 seconds. He then didn’t fight again for two and a half years until he took on former WWE cast member CM Punk in June 2018. Despite winning a decision in that one, that fight was so bad that Dana White said Jackson would never fight again in the UFC. White complained that Jackson was just goofing around and never looking for a finish, which is true in fairness and it was an absolutely terrible fight where Jackson appeared completely disinterested. It’s interesting that White changed his mind and is now giving Jackson another shot, but maybe he’s just hoping he gets destroyed. Jackson outlanded CM Punk 64-19 in significant strikes and 129-56 in total strikes, while landing his only takedown attempt and stuffing 8 of CM Punk’s 9 attempts. Jackson also led in control time 7:26-2:52 on his way to a unanimous 30-26 decision win. However, the fight was later overturned to a No Contest when Jackson tested positive for THC.
Jackson has some experience in boxing and kickboxing but doesn’t seem all that interested in pursuing a fighting career and is now 37 years old with just two pro fights to his name. It’s confusing why he’s even on the UFC roster, and it seems more like some sort of technicality that the UFC is simply allowing to run its course. It’s hard to point to anything that Jackson excels at, but his background is in striking and photography for what it’s worth.
Fight Prediction:
Jackson will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, but Barry is eight years younger than the 37-year-old Jackson.
The UFC should be embarrassed that this fight is taking place under their banner and neither one of these two appear UFC ready. With that said, Barry is at least a good striker, even if he lacks any sort of grappling, while Jackson doesn’t appear to excel anywhere. We would take just about any competent grappler over Barry in a fight, but Jackson doesn’t fit that bill. Barry should be able to make short work of Jackson on the feet, but both of these guys are so green this is still somewhat of a high variance spot between two inexperienced fighters. We’ll take Barry by R1 KO, but this is a fight we would remove from the card if we could.
Our favorite bet here is “Barry R1 KO” at +140.
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DFS Implications:
Barry is a one-dimensional striker who’s entirely reliant on striking and finishes to score well in DFS. Working in his favor, all four of his career wins have come by R1 KO and now he’s fighting an MMA media member in Mike Jackson. This seems more like some sort of reality show matchup than a sanctioned UFC fight, but here we are. Barry’s karate style stance generally isn’t ideal for DFS production, but he does throw a good amount of volume and rarely gets hit. With that said, we haven't seen him face anything in terms of legitimate competition, although in fairness that won’t change here. Barry has just one win over an opponent with a winning pro record and he won’t have the chance to change that in this one. It makes sense to play Barry based on how bad Jackson has looked, but you’re likely relying on a first round knockout for the move to pay off in DFS. The odds imply Barry has an 89% chance to win, a 62% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Jackson hasn’t fought in almost four years and really isn’t a professional fighter. He’s a photographer and MMA media member and it’s completely bizarre to see him fighting on a UFC card. While he has some limited fight experience, the only professional win on his record came against a 39-year-old former WWE star who also had no pro MMA wins on his record and isn’t an actual fighter. That was the equivalent of a celebrity pro boxing match, where the winner then faces an actual boxer. It makes no sense. Who really knows how much Jackson has been training in the last four years, but this fight will likely go down as a joke. The only hope for Jackson in DFS is that he can capitalize on Barry’s non-existent grappling, but considering Jackson doesn’t have a grappling background that seems unlikely. At the end of this matchup we’ll all likely be left starting at our TVs saying “what the fuck did I just watch?” The odds imply Jackson has an 11% chance to win, a 7% chance it comes early, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Marcin Prachnio
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Coming off his first early win in the UFC and now somehow on a two fight winning streak, Prachnio finished Ike Villanueva early in round two with a body kick. Prachnio finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 59-34. Just prior to that, Prachnio won a decision over Khalil Rountree after getting knocked out in the first round of his first three UFC fights. Rountree did momentarily drop Prachnio with a clean right hook to the chin late in the second round, but refused to really look to put the fight away as he allowed Prachnio time to recover. Rountree did land a head kick that connected shortly after, but he again frustratingly then stepped back to admire his handywork instead of trying to close the show.
Prachnio joined the UFC in 2018 and immediately earned the distinguished honors of being the only guy to get knocked out by Sam Alvey in the last six years. Prachnio followed that up with two more first round KO losses against Magomed Ankalaev in 2018 and Mike Rodriguez in 2020.
Prior to joining the UFC, Prachnio was 13-2, with 10 KOs and one submission win, but that really makes you wonder what level of competition he was facing. Fourteen of Prachnio’s 19 career fights have ended in the first round and he now holds a 15-5 pro record. He has 11 wins by KO, one by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out four times and has lost one decision.
Prachnio is a pure striker and has never landed a takedown in the UFC on just two attempts. He doesn’t have crazy power, but likes to throw a good amount of kicks. His durability is obviously one of his biggest issues and he’s very prone to getting knocked out.
Philipe Lins
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Lins has been struggling mightily to get back inside the Octagon since his June 2020 R1 KO loss to Tanner Boser, but has now had six straight fights canceled, mostly from him withdrawing. He’s making the move back down to Light Heavyweight from Heavyweight, so it’s possible that’s been giving him some issues. Lins actually started his career at Light Heavyweight, before moving up to Heavyweight in 2018 following two straight KO losses at Light Heavyweight. Lins has been finished four times in his career. One of those was in his most recent UFC fight where he got knocked out in the first round, while the other three also all came by KO/TKO in the first two rounds in his most recent four fights at Light Heavyweight from 2014 to 2017. That’s not overly encouraging for his chances as he returns to the weight class.
After winning a million dollars in the PFL Heavyweight tournament, Lins was signed to the UFC and took on Andrei Arlovski in his May 2020 debut. Arlovski outlanded his way to a low-volume decision win as he led in significant strikes 50-41. Next, Lins took on Tanner Boser and got knocked out midway through the first round, as Boser led 15-6 in significant strikes. It’s now been 22 months since that KO loss, as Lins has booked half a dozen fights only to have them all canceled. It will be interesting to see if he can finally step back inside the Octagon here.
Lins is a BJJ black belt with four first round submission wins on his record, however we’ve yet to see him attempt a takedown in the UFC. Rounding out his 14-5 pro record, he also has eight knockouts and two decisions. Seven of those eight knockouts notably occurred in the later rounds. On the other side of things, he’s been knocked out in four of his five losses, with three ending in round one and one in round two. His only other loss ended in a decision in his UFC debut. Twelve of his last 13 fights have ended early, with 11 of those ending in the first two rounds.
Fight Prediction:
Prachnio will have a 1” height advantage, but Lins will have a 4” reach advantage.
Both of these two guys have each been knocked out in 80% of their losses and neither has shown a very good chin. The biggest storyline is Lins dropping back down to Light Heavyweight after fighting at Heavyweight for the last five years. He most recently weighed in at 234 lb for his fight against Boser, so it’s a decent amount of weight to cut. It’s hard to imagine that will help his chin and if anything he’ll be even more prone to getting knocked out now. While Prachnio hasn’t been very impressive, he’s still landed knockouts in 11 of his 15 career wins. So if Lins looks terrible following the weight drop, there’s at least somewhat of a chance that Prachnio can capitalize and put him away. On the other side of things, if Lins can successfully make the move without leaving his chin on the scale, then Prachnio has been very prone to getting finished and a guy moving down from Heavyweight would theoretically have the power to easily knock him out. Considering the weight switch and extended layoff for Lins, this is a high-variance spot between two fragile fighters and it will likely just come down to who lands the first big shot. We have very little confidence in either one of their chins and as the odds suggest this feels close to a coin flip. It’s really hard to know how Lins will look, which makes picking the outcome here nearly impossible, but forced to choose we’ll take Prachnio.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at -165.
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DFS Implications:
Prachnio is coming off his first usable DFS score in his five UFC fights, when he finished a terrible Ike Villanueva in the second round with a body kick. Prachnio’s only other UFC win came in a decision and scored just 72 DraftKings points and he appears to be a KO or bust fighter who only has one finish since 2017. With that said, Lins hasn’t fought in 22 months and is coming down a weight class from Heavyweight so we really don’t know how he’ll look, which makes this a high variance spot. Lins has also been knocked out in four of his five career losses, including three of his last four fights at Light Heavyweight back in 2014 to 2017. So there’s reason for optimism in Prachnio in this spot, but he’s always a gross guy to bet on as he’s not very talented and has no chin. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 35% chance it comes early, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Lins scored just 17 DraftKings points in a decision loss in his UFC debut before getting knocked out in the first round of his last fight. Similar to Prachnio, Lins is reliant on a finish to score well and he only landed 41 significant strikes the one time he went the distance so far in the UFC. Working in Lins’ favor, Prachnio has also been knocked out in four of his five career losses, including in the first round of his first three UFC fights. We really don’t know what Lins will look like after dropping down to Light Heavyweight, and he could look slow and terrible or lean and powerful. If you play Lins you’re really more betting against Prachnio than on Lins, which is generally a viable strategy. Lins is basically a shot in the dark play in a fight we expect to end early. The odds imply he has a 47% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Preston Parsons
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a first round KO loss to Daniel Rodriguez in his short notice UFC debut, Parsons had been scheduled to face Louis Cosce here, but Cosce withdrew after testing positive for COVID and Elder stepped in on just three day’s notice for his own short notice debut, which will be up a weight class from where he normally fights.
In his recent loss, Parsons tried to implement his grappling-heavy game plan, but Rodriguez was able to stuff all four of his attempts and force him into a striking battle. Parsons was able to land some punches, but he was never going to win a striking battle against the heavy hands of Rodriguez, and midway through the round Rodriguez landed a punch to the eye of Parsons that really bothered him. At that point Rodriguez completely took over the fight and finished it with strikes a minute later as Parsons shelled up along the fence. Rodriguez finished ahead in significant strikes 45-23 in what was clearly an incredibly tough spot for Parsons to be making his short notice debut.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Parsons has still never been past the second round in his career, with 10 of his fights ending in round one (8-2) and two ending in round two (1-1). Two of his three losses ended in first round knockouts against UFC fighters in Mike Perry (in Parsons’ third pro fight when he was just 19) and Daniel Rodriguez. His only other career loss came in a second round guillotine choke in 2017. All nine of his career wins have ended in submissions, including eight in round one. Parsons had won four straight fights prior to his recent loss and notably has a first round submission win over Ignacio Bahamondes back in 2016.
While Parsons was completely a one-dimensional grappler earlier in his career, he seems to be improving his striking and adding muscle in his last couple of fights. Parsons actually started his career at 155 lb but has been at 170 lb since 2016. Overall, Parsons still relies heavily on his grappling, and is incredibly dangerous on the ground, but he now looks much more dangerous and willing to trade on the feet at times as well.
Evan Elder
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Elder will be making his UFC debut up a weight class on just three day’s notice, but comes into the organization with a perfect 7-0 record. Five of his seven career wins have come early, with four knockouts and one submission, with four of those finishes ending in the first round. He’s coming off back-to-back KO/TKOs, but he hasn't been facing the toughest competition and his most recent opponent entered with a 9-16 pro record.
Elder had been preparing for a five-round fight in just two weeks, so there’s reason to be less concerned about his cardio than with your typical short notice replacement. With that said, going from two and a half weeks to prepare versus three days is still a major difference. Elder made his pro debut in 2018 at 170 lb and landed a first round knockout, but then immediately dropped down to 155 lb for his last six fights. He’s shown good striking and a good takedown defense, but it remains to be seen how he’ll fare against the next level of competition. Overall he’s looked pretty solid all around, but hasn’t completely blown us away in any area. He looks like a guy that will more likely be trying to grind out decisions at the UFC level opposed to contending for bonuses, but he certainly hasn’t looked terrible.
Fight Prediction:
Parsons will have a 1” height advantage, while Elder will have a 1” reach advantage.
In this matchup we have Parsons looking to bounce back from a R1 KO loss in his short notice UFC debut taking on a fighter who will be making his own short notice UFC debut and fighting up a weight class. While Elder has looked decent on tape, he’s got everything working against him here and it will be an uphill battle to pull off the upset. Parsons has never been in a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes and 100% of his wins have come by submission. So overall we have some pretty compelling reasons to think Parsons lands a submission in the first two rounds here, even if Elder is undefeated and has shown a pretty solid takedown defense. We’re taking Parsons by submission in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is Parsons’ ML at -125.
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DFS Implications:
After paying his dues by taking his UFC debut on short notice against Daniel Rodriguez, Parsons will now be on the other side of that scenario as he looks to notch his first UFC win against a short notice newcomer in Evan Elder, who took this fight on three day’s notice and up a weight class. Parsons’ grappling-heavy style is perfectly suited to the DraftKings scoring system, but the fact that all nine of his career wins have come by submission in the first two rounds gives him a solid ceiling in all formats. While Elder’s takedown defense looked pretty solid on tape, he hasn’t been facing the toughest competition and now he’ll be facing a larger opponent up at 170 lb. With that said, if Elder can keep this fight standing then it will suddenly become much closer and Parsons really needs to get it to the ground to find his easiest path to victory. Parsons has shown improved striking, but Elder has looked pretty solid on the feet, so it’s tougher to know how this fight will play out if Elder is able to keep it standing, That reliance on his grappling keeps Parsons as somewhat of a riskier play, but this still looks like a good spot for him. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Elder steps into his UFC debut on just three day’s notice and fighting up a weight class, so while he does own a perfect 7-0 record, this looks like a spot where he has everything working against him. Five of his seven wins have come early, including four in the first round and Parsons has been finished in all three of his losses, so there is a theoretical scoring ceiling for Elder. However, it’s rare to see guys succeed in his situation and it remains to be seen if Elder’s finishing ability can translate to the UFC. While cardio is always a concern when you step into a fight on short notice, Elder had been training for a five-round fight in two weeks, so that should help him some here. Elder will likely need to keep this fight standing to keep it competitive as all nine of Parsons’ career wins have come by submission. The odds imply he has a 47% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Aoriqileng
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Looking to bounce back from a pair of decision losses in his first two UFC fights, Aoriqileng has now been involved in a high paced brawl and a slower paced grappling match, but came out behind in both. His UFC debut against Jeff Molina turned into an absolute barn burner in the back half, with Molina landing an insane 127 significant strikes in just the third round. The fight ended with Molina ahead 189-116 in significant strikes and 210-125 in total strikes, while Aoriqileng was able to land 3 of his 4 takedown attempts with two minutes of control time. Aoriqileng was content walking through punches with non-existent head movement and with a zombie-like approach to fighting, which allowed Molina to put up other worldly striking numbers.
Following that loss, Aoriqileng lost a grappling-heavy decision to Cody Durden. Durden landed 5 of his 10 takedown attempts with over five and a half minutes of control time, while Aoriqileng narrowly led in significant strikes 65-60. Total strikes were practically even as well, with Durden leading 80-78.
Prior to making his UFC debut, Aoriqileng was on a six fight winning streak, with four of those ending in the first two rounds, with three KOs and one submission. He’s now 18-9 as a pro, with five KOs, two submissions, and 11 decision wins. While he’s never been knocked out, he has been submitted three times to go along with six decision losses. However, two of those submission losses came in his first four pro fights, back in 2016, and he has only been finished once in his last 23 matches (2017 R3 rear-naked choke).
Aoriqileng has spent most of his career fighting between 128-134 lb, but actually made his 2015 pro debut all the way up at 160 lb. He dropped down to 125 lb for his first two UFC fights, but will now be moving back up to 135 lb.
Cameron Else
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)It’s been a year and a half since Else got finished with ground and pound early in the second round of his short notice UFC debut against Kyler Phillips. Phillips nearly ended the fight late in the first round, but Else appeared to be saved by the bell. The rescue was short lived, however, as Phillips finished Else less than a minute into the second round. Phillips finished ahead in significant strikes 32-11 and in total strikes 34-20, while also landed both of his takedown attempts with nearly two and a half minutes of control time.
Prior to that loss in his debut, Else had finished six straight opponents in the first round and all 10 of his career wins have come in round one, with six KOs and four submissions. He’s only seen the second round three times in 15 pro fights, and has only been to the third round once, which ended in a 2014 decision loss in his fourth pro fight. He’s now 10-5 as a pro, with three of his losses ending in KOs, one by submission, and the other in a decision. He’s shown questionable cardio in the past, which makes sense considering all of his wins have come in under five minutes. Else hasn’t faced the toughest competition throughout his career and we haven’t seen enough of him at the UFC level to fully evaluate him, so he remains somewhat of a question mark.
Fight Prediction:
Else will have a 2” height and reach advantage and Z” reach advantage.
Aoriqileng has fought like a store brand version of the Korean Zombie, while Else has never won a fight that made it out of the first round. So this fight sets up as an under the radar banger with both guys pushing for a finish from the start. They’re each still searching for their first UFC win, but Aoriqileng is the more desperate of the two as he’s already notched a pair of losses. Else hasn’t fought in a year and a half, which makes it tougher to know how he’ll look following the loss in his short notice debut. We like Aoriqileng’s chances to land an early knockout in the first two rounds in this fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Aoriqileng R1 or R2 Win” at +160.
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DFS Implications:
Aoriqileng is coming off a pair of tough losses, but this looks like a great bounce back spot for him. His expensive price tag and past scoring struggles should keep his ownership in check, making him an even more compelling tournament play. He should go overlooked with most of the field building lineups around Romanov and then looking to add Pedro and Andrade as their other expensive pieces. Aoriqileng has shown solid striking volume and will also mix in takedowns. Four of his last six wins have come in the first two rounds, and now he faces an opponent who’s been finished in the first two rounds in four of his five pro losses and is coming off an extended layoff. The odds imply Aoriqileng has a 68% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in the first round.
Else has built a career out of landing early finishes, with all 10 of his career wins coming in the first round. However, he hasn’t faced the toughest competition and has yet to prove he can compete at the UFC level. He’s now 18 months removed from an early second round TKO loss in his short notice UFC debut so it’s tougher to know how he’ll look. Working in his favor, Aoriqileng protects his hands with his face and checks in with the second highest average number of significant strikes absorbed per minute on the slate at 8.20. We also saw Aoriqileng get taken down five times on 10 attempts in his most recent fight after absorbing 189 significant strikes in his debut. So if Else can pull off the upset, he has a chance to fill up the stat sheet as well. If he does win, it’s hard to see him getting left out of tournament winning lineups at his cheap price tag and this looks like a fight where the winner should score well. The odds imply Else has a 32% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Tyson Pedro
7th UFC Fight (3-3)After dealing with multiple knee surgeries, Pedro hasn’t competed since December 2018 and it will have been 1,239 days since he last fought when he steps inside the Octagon on Saturday. After winning his first six pro fights all in the first round, Pedro has now lost three of his last four and has been finished in his last two.
Pedro made his 2016 UFC debut with a first round submission win over Khalil Rountree and followed it up with a late first round ground and pound TKO win over Paul Craig. He then suffered his first career loss against wrestler Ilir Latifi, who was able to take Pedro down four times on five attempts with over seven minutes of control time. Pedro bounced back in February 2018 with a first round submission win, this time by kimura against Saparbek Safarov. That was the last time Pedro won a fight. He went on to fight Ovince St. Preux in June 2018, and while he was able to drop OSP early in the fight and then nearly locked up a guillotine choke, OSP was able to recover and land a submission of his own midway through the round. In his last fight, Pedro took on Shogun Rua and once again nearly found a first round finish, but Rua was able to survive and take the fight into deep waters before landing an early third round TKO. Pedro appeared to suffer a knee injury late in the second round of that fight and could hardly stand on it in round three which led to Rua easily getting him to the mat and finishing the fight with ground and pound. That injury snowballed into a multi-year layoff that Pedro hopes to have finally gotten past.
Now 7-3 as a pro, eight of Pedro’s fights have ended in the first round (7-1), while he’s 0-2 in fights that have lasted longer than five minutes. Pedro has two wins by KO/TKO and five by submission. Five of his last six finishes have come by submission.
Tyson Pedro’s dad, John Pedro, owned the King of the Cage promotion in Australia and Tyson has been around MMA his entire life. He holds black belts in Japanese and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as Kempo. Despite his three and half year absence from the UFC, Pedro is still just 30 years old. While he’s a solid grappler, Pedro has only landed two takedowns on eight attempts in the UFC and both of those came in his UFC debut. Since then he’s gone 0 for 6 on his attempts.
Overall, Pedro offers both solid striking and grappling, but has yet to show the ability to win a fight that lasts longer than five minutes. In fairness, he’s only been out of the first round twice in his career and got injured in one of those.
Ike Villanueva
6th UFC Fight (1-4)Somehow Ike Villanueva is still on the UFC roster. The only possible explanation is that Sam Alvey sold him his Dana White blackmail material. Villanueva has lost by KO/TKO in the first six minutes of four of his five UFC fights and has looked terrible every step of the way. His only UFC win came against one of the worst UFC fighters of all time in Vinicius Moreira, who went 0-4 in the UFC with all four losses taking six minutes or less.
In his most recent loss, Villanueva got finished in just 78 seconds by Nicolae Negumereanu with a flurry of punches between the two that left Villanueva crumpled on the mat absorbing some potentially illegal shots to the back of the head. It ended so abruptly that it’s hard to take much away from it other than the fact that Villanueva continues to be easy to finish. That was Villanueva’s ninth straight fight to end in a KO/TKO (6-3) and he hasn’t seen the third round since a 2017 decision loss when he was still fighting down at 185 lb.
In his second recent fight, Villanueva was finished early in the second round with a body kick that just completely shut him down. In a fight that lasted under six minutes against another highly suspect fighter in Marcin Prachnio, Villanueva was outlanded 59-34 in significant strikes as he absorbed 9.94 SS/min in the match.
Villanueva has never outlanded an opponent in the UFC with significant striking totals of 11-7 (R1 KO L), 59-34 (R2 KO L), 24-24 (R2 KO W), 15-7 (R1 KO L), and 51-16 (R2 KO L). They essentially roll him out there to be a heavy bag for his opponents and his last nine fights have all ended in six minutes or less, with six of those ending in 197 seconds or less.
Interestingly, neither of Villanueva’s first two UFC opponents are even in the same weight class as him. He made his debut up at Heavyweight against Chase Sherman and got knocked out in the second round as he was clearly undersized in the match, giving up 20 lb and 3” of height. Sherman notably was also flagged by the USADA after a positive drug test following the fight, so that match had all sorts of weird things going on. Then Villanueva took on a Middleweight in Jordan Wright who was simply too quick for him and Wright won with a flukey doctor stoppage early in the first round. Wright caught Villanueva with a spinning heel kick to the head right of the bat. He then landed a series of violent knees to Villanueva’s face inside the Muay Thai Clinch. Split open by one of the knees, the doctor stopped the fight just 91 seconds into the first round.
Now 18-13 as a pro, 27 of Villanueva’s 31 pro fights have ended early. Of his 18 career wins, 15 have come by KO/TKO with three ending in decisions. Of his 13 career losses, 12 have come early with seven KOs and five submissions. His last submission loss came in 2016 against Trevin Giles in the third round via arm-triangle choke.
Villanueva had a stretch from 2016 to 2017 where he fought five times at 185 lb, including the 2016 third round submission loss to UFC fighter Trevin Giles. He then took over two years off and when he returned he fought all the way up at Heavyweight for one fight before dropping back down to Light Heavyweight. Since returning from that two year layoff, Villanueva has fought eight times (4-4) with all of his fights ending in knockouts in the first six minutes. Overall, Villanueva is a 38-year-old one-dimensional short-armed boxer who has no business being in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Pedro will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
The UFC is giving Pedro a teed up matchup to ease him back in following his extended layoff, and this will unquestionably be the easiest opponent he’s faced in the UFC. While long layoffs are always concerning, and Pedro’s layoff has been exceptionally long, it’s hard to see Villanueva beating almost anyone in the division, let alone someone that has actually looked good. It’s really hard to see Villanueva winning this fight and it would likely require some sort of freak injury. Pedro has never been finished on the feet and Villanueva doesn’t have any sort of ground game. The real question here is how long does it take Pedro to finish Villanueva, and does it come by KO or submission? While Villanueva’s last four losses have all come by knockout, five of Pedro’s last six finishes have ended in submissions. Pedro is fully capable of finishing this fight either on the feet or the mat and against more durable opponents we would expect him to typically look to finish fights with submissions. However, Villanueva is so easy to put away that he may not even last long enough to get submitted, which makes a knockout somewhat more likely for Pedro even though he generally finishes fights with submissions. Either way, we expect Pedro to end things in under a round and a half and most likely in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -170.
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DFS Implications:
All seven of Pedro’s career wins have come in the first round, which is promising for his DFS potential, especially as he faces off against one of the worst Light Heavyweights on the roster in this dream matchup. Of concern, Pedro is coming off multiple knee surgeries and hasn’t fought since December 2018, and has also lost three of his last four fights. While those red flags would normally be more alarming, this is just too juicy of a matchup to pass up. Villanueva has been knocked out in the first six minutes of four of his last five fights and has no business being in the UFC. He’s a one-dimensional boxer with short arms, who lacks power, durability, and cardio. Pedro couldn’t ask for an easier matchup in his first fight back and we fully expect him to land a finish early in this fight. The odds imply he has a 83% chance to win, a 69% chance to land a finish, and a 41% chance it comes in round one.
Despite his history of knockouts earlier in his career, Villanueva has looked terrible in the UFC and does not appear to be a finishing threat against anyone half decent. It’s amazing that Villanueva hasn’t already been released, but clearly that will be coming soon. Villanueva is nothing more than a lottery ticket KO or bust play who will need something to go terribly wrong for Pedro to get the win. The only two things working in Villanueva’s favor are that he’ll be very low owned and Pedro is coming off a massive three and a half year layoff. The odds imply he has a 17% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Sergey Khandozhko
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Making a rare appearance following a two and a half year layoff, Khandozhko hasn’t competed since November 2019. Despite his recent inactivity, Khandozhko has 33 pro fights under his belt and is still just 29 years old. He split a pair of decisions in his two UFC fights, which occurred in 2019. Khandozhko had two fights booked in 2021, but ended up withdrawing from both of them.
In his 2019 UFC debut, he won a low volume decision against Rostem Akman, who was making his debut on short notice and went 0-2 in the UFC before being released and has now lost three straight. Khandozhko was able to land a second round knockdown, which was the biggest moment in the fight, but overall it wasn’t a very impressive performance. While Khandozhko did attempt six takedowns, landing just one of them, he appears far more comfortable on the feet and doesn’t look to be a great grappler. He proved that in his second UFC fight when he was taken down 4 times on 12 attempts with over 10 and a half minutes of control time against Rustam Khabilov. Khandozhko led in significant strikes 25-12 and in total strikes 188-56, but lost a unanimous decision.
Now 26-6-1 as a pro, Khandozhko has 10 wins by KO, seven by submission, and eight decisions. While he’s been submitted twice, he’s only been knocked out once in his career, which came in the second round of a 2013 fight. His other three losses all went the distance.
Overall, Khandozhko hasn’t done much to impress us so far in the UFC and now hasn’t fought in 896 days. He’ll face a pure striker for the first time in the UFC, so it will be interesting to see how he looks following the long layoff.
Dwight Grant
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Looking to bounce back from a split-decision loss to Francisco Trinaldo, Grant has now amazingly gone to four split decisions (2-2) in his six UFC matches. His other two UFC fights both ended in first round knockouts (1-1). In his recent loss to Trinaldo, we saw a slower paced striking battle without many big moments. The most impactful strike of the fight was an eye poke in the third round that cost Trinaldo a point as he had already been warned and it came immediately after he landed a groin shot. Trinaldo was able to take Grant down and control him for the final three and a half minutes of the fight to secure the win, at least on two of the judges’ score cards. The fight ended with Trinaldo ahead in significant strikes 36-31 and in total strikes 61-41, with each fighter landing one takedown. Overall, it was an uneventful fight decided by a few exchanges.
Grant’s second most recent fight also ended in a low-volume split-decision, however that time it went in his favor. The victory came against Stefan Sekulic, who hadn’t fought in two and half years, but the fight was very close and Grant appeared focussed on keeping himself out of danger for the majority of the match opposed to aggressively hunting for a finish. Nevertheless, he nearly got submitted with a guillotine choke as the fight ended after he got clipped on the feet in the moments leading up. Grant finished ahead in significant strikes 49-43 and in total strikes 52-39, while Sekulic took him down three times on seven attempts with Grant also landing a takedown in the match. Many would argue that Grant lost the fight and we were a little surprised it went his way.
Just prior to that, Grant took part in a chaotic R1 KO loss to Daniel Rodriguez. In a matchup that was made on just a day’s notice after both of their previous opponents dropped out, Grant and Rodriguez both came out ready to brawl. Grant dropped Rodriguez just 40 seconds into the scrap, but Rodriguez was narrowly able to survive the barrage of ground and pound, with the help of a long leash from the ref. Rodriguez was able to get up and amazingly drop Grant three times in the next minute before the ref finally stopped the fight. In a dust up that lasted less than half of the first round, we ridiculously saw four knockdowns.
Outside of the D-Rod brawl, Grant has generally been a patient counter striker who’s never landed more than 49 significant strikes in a UFC fight and never absorbed more than 36. Despite the lack of volume, Grant is dangerous on the feet as he throws strikes from odd angles, which makes it tougher for opponents to defend. He’s now 3-3 in the UFC with four low-volume decisions (2-2) and a pair of R1 KOs (1-1).
Looking at this entire career, he owns an 11-4 pro record with all 14 of his fights either ending in knockouts (7-1) or decisions (4-3). Grant’s only knockout win since joining the UFC came in the first round of a 2019 fight against Carlo Pedersoli Jr., who finished his UFC career 1-2 with a pair of R1 KO losses.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’1” but Grant will have a 2” reach advantage.
This sets up as a lower volume striking battle as Grant has never landed more than 49 significant strikes in a UFC fight and Khandozhko has yet to top 60, albeit with basically just a one fight sample as his other match was spent defending takedowns the whole time. Grant’s length and counter punching style generally slows fights down, which plays into why he’s seen so many split decisions as there’s not a ton going on in most of his fights—other than the one against Daniel Rodrguez. Considering how long of a layoff Khandozhko has had, it’s hard to know how he’ll look, which makes this a higher variance spot. Grant is a tough opponent to prepare for as he has a long reach, solid power, and throws strikes from odd angles. So if Khandozhko is affected by any sort of ring rust, we could see Grant land an early knockout and that’s the direction we’re leaning for how this fight goes. However, if Grant fails to land an early knockout we would expect this to end in another close low-volume decision that could go either way.
Our favorite bet here is “Grant KO” at +320.
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DFS Implications:
Khandozhko scored just 71 DraftKings points in his lone UFC win, which ended in a decision. Now he’s coming off a two and a half year layoff and facing Dwight Grant, who slows fights down and has only been finished once in his career. The last time Khandozhko finished anybody was in a 2018 R2 KO prior to joining the UFC, and this looks like a really tough spot for him to score well. The best thing Khandozhko has going for him is that with such a long layoff he’s sort of a wild card as we don’t really know what he’s been doing since 2019. Still just 29 years old, there’s always the chance he’s made some improvements, but other than that blind hope we don’t have much interest in playing him in DFS. He’s primarily a striker, although he will sometimes mix in some grappling, he’s just not especially good at it. He looks like a KO or bust play and his most likely path to actually winning the fight would be in a low-volume decision. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Grant is a KO or bust DFS play even at his cheaper price tag, and he scored just 56 and 45 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins. He’s never landed more than 49 significant strikes in a fight and rarely lands a takedown, with three total in six UFC fights. He has good power, but is a patient counter striker who relies on landing the one big shot to put opponents away. He’s only landed one knockout in the UFC, which came against Carlo Pedersoli Jr., who finished his UFC career 1-2 with a pair of R1 KO losses. While Grant’s opponent, Sergey Khandozhko, is notably coming off an extended two and a half year layoff, he’s only been knocked out once in 33 pro fights. So at least on paper this doesn’t look like a great opportunity for Grant to get a finish. With that said, the long layoff adds some uncertainty, and we haven’t seen enough of Khandozhko to know if his chin can hold up at the UFC level. If you’re betting on a KO there are definitely worse spots to take than Grant in this fight, especially when he’s priced as the underdog. The odds imply he has a 47% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Marc-Andre Barriault
8th UFC Fight (2-4, NC)Stepping into this 190 lb catchweight fight on just 10 day’s notice, Barriault is looking to bounce back from a 16 second R1 KO loss he suffered just 77 days ago on February 5th. That was also notably the first time Barriault has been finished in his career and it came against UFC newcomer Chidi Njokuanihe. The fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it, as Barriault almost immediately got caught with a huge right hand and then pummeled in the side of the head on the mat until the fight was stopped.
That loss halted a two fight winning streak that would have been three if the first one hadn’t been overturned to a No Contest. After losing his first three UFC fights in 2019, Barriault bounced back with a 2020 R2 KO win against suspect fighter Oskar Piechota, who was coming off three straight early losses. However, the result was overturned to a No Contest when Barriault tested positive for a banned substance, receiving a nine month suspension for his offense. He then returned in March 2021 and took on Abu Azaitar who was coming off a nearly three year layoff and Azaitar gassed hard in the back half of the fight. Barriault was able to capitalize on that and land a million ground strikes in the third round and eventually get a stoppage with just four seconds remaining. He finished ahead in significant strikes 141-108 and in total strikes 190-142, while also landing a knockdown in the third. Neither fighter landed a takedown, Barriault with one attempt and Azaitar with three. Barriault also led in control time 6:00-2:03.
Barriault followed that up with a decision win over Dalcha Lungiambula as he outlanded his way to a decision victory against a power puncher who hasn’t looked all that great since dropping down to 185 lb. Barriault was surprisingly willing to stand and trade with Lungiambula and led in significant strikes 118-85 and in total strikes 128-87. Lungiambula went 2 for 5 on his takedown attempts while Barriault didn’t attempt any takedowns.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Barriault has nine wins by KO and four by decision. Four of his losses have ended in decisions, with his only early loss coming in the KO in his last fight. In his seven UFC fights, Barriault has gone just 2 for 8 on his takedown attempts, and has landed just one in his last five fights and none in his last three. He relies on his striking and cardio to win fights, and seems to enjoy working out of the clinch. His first six UFC fights all made it to the second round, with five seeing round three, and four going the distance.
Jordan Wright
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Wright had been scheduled to face Roman Kopylov, but Kopylov withdrew and Barriault stepped in on 10 day's notice, and the fight was moved up from 185 lb to a 190 lb catchweight.
Coming off his second early KO loss in his last three fights, Wright was knocked out in just 88 seconds by Bruno Silva. Wright did what he always does as he came out throwing a ton of kicks and then looked to lock Silva up in the Thai clinch to land heavy knees. Silva muscled his way out of the position and responded with a flurry of punches that had Wright stumbling back and then Silva quickly finished him with a barrage of heavy punches. Silva’s heavy hands were on full display and as soon as he landed anything clean on Wright the fight was basically over.
Looking back one fight further, Wright finished Jamie Pickett in just 64 seconds. Pickett appeared to panic once Wright got him in the clinch and started throwing knees so Pickett instinctually shot for a takedown but left his head exposed and absorbed a series of heavy elbows. Pickett momentarily recovered, but Wright regained the clinch and landed a knee that dropped Pickett and then finished him on the ground as the fight was quickly stopped. Prior to that win, Wright was violently finished by Joaquin Buckley, who easily finished him early in round two and nearly ended things late in round one.
Wright made his UFC debut up at 205 lb in August 2020 against a terrible Ike Villanueva, and it ended with a weird/sudden R1 TKO resulting from a doctor's stoppage just 91 seconds in. Wright landed a spinning head kick to start the fight that glanced off the top of Villanueva’s dome, dropping him for a brief moment. As Villanueva returned to his feet, Wright engaged him in the Thai clinch against the fence and began landing several high knees to the face of Villanueva. He was able to split Villanueva open above the eye with one of those knees, which resulted in the fight being stopped just moments later. The flukey stoppage awarded Wright a R1 TKO in his debut, but was far from impressive.
Prior to joining the UFC, Wright’s only career loss, which was later overturned to a No Contest, came in a 2018 fight on DWCS against Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez in a 40 second R1 KO. After a 19 month layoff and a switch in gyms, Wright bounced back with a R2 KO against an unimpressive Gabriel Checco. It's worth noting, that was the first time any of Wright's pro fights made it out of the first round up until that point.
Wright started his pro career off with nine straight first round wins. However, on closer investigation that impressive winning streak is padded by a sea of inexperienced (or experienced at losing) fighters. Here are the records of those nine opponents starting at the beginning of Wright's career: 0-0, 0-0, 0-5, 0-0, 0-21, 0-10, 0-0, 1-2, 7-3. With an unbelievably bad 1-38 combined record from his first eight opponents it's hard to take much from those early wins.
Now 12-2 plus a No Contest in his career, all five of Wright’s submission wins have come in the first round, as have six of his seven KO victories. He’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than six minutes and is 1-1 in his only two fights that made it past the first round. Ten of his 15 pro fights have ended in 92 seconds or less and four have ended in under a minute.
Overall, Wright is the epitome of a kill or be killed fighter. He has a highly questionable chin, no striking defense and poor hands. He relies almost entirely on kicking and knees out of the clinch to cause damage and can easily be overwhelmed if forced to stand and trade in a phone booth. While he does have five submission wins on his record, he failed to land his only takedown attempt so far in the UFC and he’s yet to show any sort of grappling game at the UFC level.
Fight Prediction:
Wright will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
With Barriault taking this fight on just 10 day’s notice and so soon after his first career KO loss, there’s some additional uncertainty here. Both of these two like working out of the clinch, and we may see the outcome of this match determined there. Wright is always dangerous looking to land high knees out of the Thai clinch, but if Barriault can overpower him in those exchanges then it will negate one of Wright’s favorite attacks. Barriault is known for outlasting opponents, opposed to finishing them early and hasn’t finished an opponent in the first round since 2018, prior to joining the UFC. With that said, Wright’s striking defense and chin are so bad, that he presents the opportunity for just about anybody to put him away early. So in the end, this is the rare occasion where we expect a Barriault fight to end quickly and even though he’s not really known for his knockout power, this is as good a chance as he’ll ever get to land a first round knockout. This also looks like a more favorable matchup for Wright than some of his last few, as won’t be facing the immense knockout power of a Bruno Silva or a Joaquin Buckley. Wright has found unusual ways to win against less threatening opponents, so it’s entirely possible he pulls another rabbit out of a hat here. We’re still taking Barriault by KO, but it’s certainly not the most confident pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Barriault/Wright Under 1.5 ” at +115.
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DFS Implications:
Barriault has topped 80 DraftKings points just once in his career, but now he gets a dream matchup when it comes to hitting a ceiling performance. Wright has never been in a fight that lasted longer than six minutes and has been knocked out early in three of his last six matches. While Barriault is known for outlasting his opponents, this sets up as a kill or be killed type of fight. It is somewhat concerning that Barriault took this fight on just 10 day’s notice and is coming off the first early loss of his career, which ended in a 16 second knockout, but that’s more of a concern for his floor than his ceiling. Wright has no striking defense and a terrible chin, so if Barriault can catch him with something clean, he should be able to get a quick finish. One concern for Barriault is that he likes working out of the clinch and Wright loves to tie guys up and throw high knees. Barriault comes in as the slightly shorter fighter and he’ll need to be careful in those situations. While this fight could go either way, we expect the winner to score well whoever it is and still give the edge to Barriault. The odds imply Barriault has a 62” chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
While Wright is a terrible overall fighter with zero striking defense, he has still managed to score 108 and 112 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins, while getting knocked out early in both of his UFC losses. All 15 of his career fights have ended in six minutes or less, creating the perfect environment for DFS scoring. So obviously you always want to have exposure to both sides of a Wright fight. Playing Wright in DFS feels like betting on a game of Russian Roulette, but he finds weird ways to win fights and you never know what’s going to happen when he’s in there. The odds imply Wright has a 38% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #5
Charles Jourdain
8th UFC Fight (3-3-1)Jourdain had been scheduled in a short notice kamikaze deathmatch against Ilia Topuria in January, but Topuria withdrew after a botched weight cut and Jourdain escaped unscathed. He must have been riding high after betting on himself in his previous fight where he opted not to sign a new contract until after the final fight on his previous deal. While he was unable to get a finish in that match, he convincingly won a decision over Andre Ewell, who was moving up a weight class. Jourdain started a little slow in the fight, but absolutely dominated the last two rounds, finishing ahead in significant strikes with 137-56 and in total strikes 150-59. Ewell landed only one takedown attempt, which came as Jourdain appeared to slip. Jourdain went 0 for 2 on his own attempts. Jourdain nearly finished the fight both at the end of the second and third rounds, but wasn’t quite able to get Ewell out of there. He capped the victory with a Sparta kick that sent Ewell careening across the Octagon and if he had had a few more seconds he likely would have gotten the finish.
Jourdain’s second most recent fight was a crazy back and forth brawl against Julian Erosa where both guys had their moments, but ultimately Erosa sealed the victory with a third round submission. Erosa stepped into that fight on short notice after Lerone Murphy withdrew, which is why it took place at a 150 lb Catchweight. That’s the second time in Erosa’s last four fights that he has accepted a fight on short notice and pulled off a major upset—both times via Brabo choke in the third round. Erosa finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 103-85, but Jourdain dropped him in the second round and had all of the momentum going into the third round before Erosa was able to take him down and force a tap. Despite all of the crazy brawls Jourdain has been part of, that was the first time he has ever been finished, and he’s still never been knocked out.
Now 12-4-1 as a pro, 11 of Jourdain’s 12 career wins have come early, with eight KOs and three submissions. Only three of his 11 career finishes have come in the first round and he’s generally a guy that puts people away later in fights. He has four second round wins, three in round three, and one in round five. His last three finishes have all come by KO in the later rounds. His first three career losses all ended in decisions, while his most recent loss ended in a submission, which is the only time he’s ever been finished. Jourdain is an exciting striker, but despite being a BJJ black belt, he’s never landed a takedown in the UFC and generally struggles off his back. He will look for opportunistic submissions, but he hasn't landed one since 2018. With just a 48% career takedown defense, he’s been taken down at least once in each of his last three fights, and 13 times in his seven UFC matches. His defensive wrestling remains his biggest vulnerability.
Lando Vannata
12th UFC Fight (4-5-2)This will just be the second time Vannata has competed at 145 lb, after he spent the first eight years of his career up at 155 lb. In his first fight at his new weight class, Vannata won a decision over wrestler Mike Grundy, who struggled to get that fight to the ground and landed just three takedowns on 20 attempts. Vannata finished ahead in significant strikes 80-32 and in total strikes 83-34, while also landing his only takedown attempt. Grundy did a poor job of disguising his attempts behind strikes and seemed content with throwing one punch at a time when he did strike. His telegraphed takedown attempts were easily defended throughout the match, and it appeared clear that Vannata had done enough to win the decision, although the fight took place in Houston, so naturally one judge ruled it 30-27 in Grundy’s favor, while another had it 30-27 for Vannata. The deciding judge scored it 29-28 for Vannata in the bizarre decision.
Vannata made his short notice UFC debut in 2016 with a perfect 8-0 record that included seven finishes, with six in the first round. He was immediately thrown to the wolves against #3 ranked Tony Ferguson, who was 10-1 in the UFC and on a seven fight winning streak. In a crazy first round, Vannata nearly finished Ferguson with a head kick followed by several ground strikes as Ferguson looked to roll his way around the mat as he recovered and was able to survive. It looked like Vannata was gassed by the second round and Ferguson began to turn it on, but Vannata continued to demonstrate his toughness (and terrible striking defense) as he took shot after shot to his face with his hands down by his side. Instead of actually trying to protect his head with his hands, he relied on head movement to avoid punches, which was not getting the job done. Eventually Ferguson grabbed his neck as Vannata looked to duck a punch and locked in a Brabo Choke to finish the fight.
Vannata bounced back with a quick R1 KO in his second UFC fight, which came against kickboxer John Makdessi. Vannata landed a spinning wheel kick to the chin of Makdessi in a walk off highlight reel KO. However, after his first two UFC fights each ended quickly, eight of his next nine would go the full 15 minutes, with the one exception being a 2019 R1 kimura submission win. In his eight UFC decisions since that fast start, he’s gone 2-4-2 and has generally struggled with the judges.
In his last fight at 155 lb before moving down a weight class, Vannata took on Bobby Green in a rematch of their 2017 fight that ended in a draw. In an action packed match, Green filled up the box score as he went 3 for 3 on takedowns and led in significant strikes 115-54 and total strikes 136-64, while also landing a knockdown. That was the most significant strikes that anyone has ever landed on Vannata, and also the first time he’s been knocked down in the UFC.
Vannata wrestled in college for a year at UT Chattanooga before dropping out to pursue MMA full time. He’s attempted at least one takedown in nine straight fights, only failing to land a takedown in two of those matches and landing exactly one takedown in six of them. The only time he’s landed more than one takedown in a UFC fight was in a 2017 draw against Bobby Green, where Vannata went 4 for 5 on his attempts. Overall, he’s landed 10 takedowns on 24 attempts (40%) in his 11 UFC fights.
While nine of Vannata’s 12 career wins have come early (4 KOs & 5 Submissions) and eight of those have come in the first round, seven of those nine finishes occurred prior to joining the UFC. Since then, he’s only finished two of his last 11 opponents. He’s proven himself to be durable, and the only time he’s been finished in 19 pro fights was in the second round of his UFC debut against Tony Ferguson. When you combine his durability and lack of finishing ability, it’s not surprising that eight of his last nine fights have gone the distance. Despite this being Vannata’s 12 UFC fight, he’s never won two in a row and is now coming off a victory.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’9” but Vannata will have a 2” reach advantage.
This has the clear potential to be fight of the night, but that will likely depend on what Vannata’s approach is. His path of least resistance will be to get the fight to the ground and rely more on his wrestling than he has in a while. He just spent a full camp preparing for a wrestler in Mike Grundy, so it will be interesting to see if all that wrestling preparation carries over into this camp. Obviously a lot of that work would have been defensive wrestling opposed to offensive, but either way he would have spent a lot of time on the mat. He’s attempted at least one takedown in nine straight fights, and we fully expect him to incorporate some wrestling, it’s just a question of how much. He’s only landed more than one takedown in one of his 11 UFC fights, so it’s hard to rely on him winning multiple rounds through grappling, but the potential is there. If the fight remains mostly on the feet, we like Jourdain to win a striking battle, with a slight chance that he can land a late knockout. With that said, we’re expecting this fight to end in a close, potentially split decision, and for Jourdain to get his hand raised. However, if Vannata comes in with a more wrestling-heavy approach than we’ve seen in the past from him, then he’s fully capable of stealing a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at -146.
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DFS Implications:
Jourdain is coming off the first decision win of his career after going 0-3-1 in his first four trips to the judges. He set a career high in significant strikes landed at 137, but was not awarded a knockdown for his closing Sparta kick that sent Ewell careening across the Octagon to close the fight. Because of that, he scored “just” 92 DraftKings points, after scoring just 22, 36, and 28 in his three other UFC decisions (2 losses and a draw). He’s been a boom or bust finisher throughout his time in the UFC, with DraftKings scores of 118 and 117 in his two finishes, which both came in later round knockouts. This looks like a tough spot for Jourdain to get a finish against Lando Vannata, who’s never been knocked out and has only been finished once in his career, which came in a second round submission in his UFC debut against Tony Ferguson. With that said, this is only Vannata’s second fight down at 145 lb, and there’s always the chance the weight cut takes its toll on his chin. However, he had no trouble with the weight cut in his last fight. Jourdain is one of the more dangerous strikers Vannata has faced in his career, and Vannata has faced a series of decision fighters, so it still won’t be completely shocking to see Jourdain knock him out. If Jourdain can keep the fight standing we could see this turn into a high-volume brawl, but it will still be hard for Jourdain to return value without a finish unless he lands a knockdown or two on top of insane striking volume. And with that in mind, Vannata has only been knocked down once in his career. So overall, Jourdain appears reliant on a finish to score well. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in the first round.
Vannata has only scored above 75 DraftKings points twice in his 11 UFC fights, but he also has just four wins since joining the organization. While his sometimes reckless fighting style makes for exciting fights, that generally doesn’t translate into big DFS scores barring an early finish, and eight of his last nine fights have gone the distance. He did fight to a draw against Bobby Green in 2017 and still scored 75 DraftKings points. So if that decision had gone his way he would have put up a respectable 105 points. However, his two UFC decision wins scored just 70 and 68 points. The one way we see him scoring well in a decision is if he comes in with a grappling-heavy gameplan. If we were coaching him that would be our strategy, but you never know what his approach will be and he’s only landed more than one takedown once in the UFC. However, he’s attempted at least one in nine straight fights, so it’s not pure speculation that he’ll be looking to wrestle. Jourdain has only been finished once in his career, and it’s less likely Vannata gets an early win, so you’re likely relying on a wrestling heavy decision win for him to score well. After opening the week as a +115 underdog, and being priced accordingly in DFS, he’s seen the line move in his favor to the point of this matchup now being a straight pick ‘em. That means Vannata is underpriced in DFS and makes for a solid cash play on both sites. The odds imply Vannata has a 50% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #4
Alexander Romanov
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Romanov originally stepped in to face Tanner Boser on 32 day's notice after Rodrigo Nascimento dropped out of a matchup against Boser, but then Boser also dropped out about a week before this fight was set to take place. After just recently cutting Chase Sherman, the UFC was desperate to find a replacement and offered him a new contract to step into this execution spot on four day’s notice.
Romanov is coming off a second round ground and pound TKO win against Jared Vanderaa where he controlled the entire fight before forcing the late second round stoppage. Romanov finished the fight with five takedowns landed on seven attempts with six and a half minutes of control time, while leading in significant strikes 56-13 and total strikes 78-19. Vanderaa did a pretty good job of returning to his feet in round one, but was unable to get off his back in round two.
Prior to that lopsided win, we saw Romanov struggle for the first time in his career as he took on another Heavyweight grappler in Juan Espino. The two essentially fought to a stalemate before the fight was stopped early in round three for what appeared to be a pretty pedestrian inadvertent low blow by Espino. While it didn’t look like Espino put much behind the illegal knee to the groin, Romanov was completely gassed at that point and seemed to be simply looking for a way out of the fight. Romanov said he couldn’t continue and the fight ended in a split technical decision that Romanov narrowly won. In the end, Romanov led in significant strikes 32-12 and in total strikes 53-44, while landing 2 of his 4 takedown attempts with a little under six minutes of control time. Espino landed 4 of his 5 attempts with just under three minutes of control time. That’s the only time Romanov has ever required the judges’ score cards in his career.
The first round of that Espino fight was close, with Romanov narrowly leading in significant strikes 5-4 and in control time 2:18-1:28, while Espino led in total strikes 20-14 and in takedowns 2-1. Neither guy was able to do much with their takedowns, making the round tougher to score. Espino’s biggest mistake in the fight was going for a Guillotine early in R2 that allowed Romanov to take top position and rain down strikes for several minutes and win the round. With all three judges rightfully giving Romanov R2 and Espino R3, the decision all came down to the close first round and two of the three judges thought Romanov did enough. Overall, Espino’s grappling prowess gave Romanov trouble as it prevented the one-sided domination on the mat we’ve seen from Romanov in the past. Both guys looked exhausted by the end of the second round, but Espino appeared to have a little more left in the tank. So the biggest takeaways were Romanov has little interest in fighting on the feet and has a one and half to two round gas tank.
Romanov owns a perfect 15-0 career record and is 4-0 in the UFC. He’s still never been in a fight that lasted longer than 12 and a half minutes, with 10 of his fights ending in round one, two ending in round two, and three ending in the first half of the third round. He has six KOs and eight submission victories.
Romanov made his UFC debut in September 2020 and submitted Roque Martinez late in the second round after dominating him for nine plus minutes on the mat. He then submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima with a rare Forearm Choke late in the first round of his next fight. Romanov has landed 13 takedowns across his four UFC fights, with at least two in each of those. It’s no secret what his plan is coming into every fight, but it’s easier said than done to stop him as he simply overpowers his opponents and slams them to the mat. The only time we’ve ever seen Romanov struggle to get a finish was when he faced another Heavyweight grappler.
Chase Sherman
12th UFC Fight (3-8)Sherman had just been cut from the UFC for the second time following his third straight loss, so it makes sense that he was the one guy willing to take this fight on short notice if it allowed him to get a new contract.
Sherman’s most recent defeat came in a first round submission against Jake Collier, who hadn’t submitted anybody since 2014 when he was fighting at Middleweight. Collier caught a kick from Sherman 80 seconds into the first round and used it to take him down. He was easily able to take full mount as Sherman looked helpless off his back. Sherman rolled over onto his stomach and Collier immediately got his neck. Sherman never even attempted to fight the choke or go after Collier’s grip and instead just skipped right to tapping.
Prior to suffering his first career submission loss, Sherman dropped a pair of decisions to Parket Porter and Andrei Arlovski. In the more recent of those two losses, Sherman entered as a head-scratching -200 favorite against Porter, who outlanded Sherman 149-117 in significant strikes and 159-121 in total strikes. He was also able to land a single takedown with over two minutes of control time, although he missed on seven other takedown attempts. Both guys looked exhausted late in the fight and Sherman hasn’t won a fight that lasted longer than six minutes since 2017. Just before losing to Porter, Sherman dropped another decision to Andrei Arlovski. Sherman started out strong before unsurprisingly fading late in a high-volume stand up battle that Arlovski led 105-88 in significant strikes with no other stats to speak of.
After going 2-5 in the UFC from 2016 to 2018, Sherman was cut following a 2018 R3 KO loss, which marked his third straight defeat. However, after landing three straight R1 KO wins on the regional scene the UFC gave him a second chance in 2020. In his first fight back, Sherman knocked out an undersized and terrible Ike Villanueva before losing his last three fights. Following the win over Villanueva, Sherman was suspended for nine months when he tested positive for an illegal estrogen blocker. While Sherman won three fights outside of the UFC in 2018 and 2019, he’s gone just 1-6 in his last seven UFC matches.
Now 15-9 as a pro, Sherman has 14 wins by KO with his only other victory coming in a 2017 decision. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted once, and has lost four of the five decisions he’s been to. Fifteen of his 24 fights have ended in the first round (12-3), three ended in round two (2-1), one ended in round three (0-1), and five have gone the distance.
Overall, Sherman is a one-dimensional striker and a non-UFC level talent. He fades after the first round and has zero career wins against legitimate competition.
Fight Prediction:
Sherman will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
The UFC negotiated a paid hit when they set up this short notice fight. Sherman laughably just got choked out by Jake Collier and now he’ll face an actual finishing threat. The question here isn’t will Sherman get finished, it’s how quickly will it happen and will it come by KO or submission? Based on how willing Sherman was to give up his back in his last fight and then immediately tapped with no resistance, a first round submission win makes a lot of sense. It’s also entirely possible that Romanov just pounds him out on the mat instead, but we’ll say a submission is more likely. We’d be surprised if this fight made it out of the first round and it’s hard to imagine Sherman will be willing to absorb too much unnecessary damage. He’ll likely be looking for his first way out as we can’t imagine he has any realistic expectations of winning. Give us Romanov by first round submission and he’ll make it look easy.
We’re interested in Romanov’s R1 Submission line here.
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DFS Implications:
Romanov has averaged 124 points on DraftKings and 134 points on FanDuel in his three UFC finishes and only failed to put up a massive score in his technical decision win over Juan Espino. Romanov's relentless grappling, violent ground and pound, and history of finishes makes him ideally suited for DFS as he puts up one massive score after the next. That’s no secret to anybody, however, and he was 68% owned the last time he fought, albeit on just a nine fight card. We expect him to be owned somewhere in that same territory once again as he faces an even easier opponent who took the fight on short notice, so it’s at least worth exploring how he fails to end up in tournament lineups. The most likely way we would see Romanov not crack winning lineups would be with a hyper efficient finish outside of the first 60 seconds where he gets priced out of winning lineups. That wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see based on how quickly Sherman tapped in his last fight, but there are still far more ways than not that Romanov puts up another slate-breaking score. Just the fact that we’re focussing on how he could potentially fail to break the slate should tell you everything you need to know about just how high his scoring ceiling is. He unquestionably has both the highest floor and ceiling of any fighter on the card. The odds imply he has an 89% chance to win, a 75% chance to land a finish, and a 49% chance it comes in round one.
Sherman was just cut from the UFC and was presumably only brought back because they couldn’t find anyone else to step into this short notice murder spot. Sherman has been a R1 KO or bust fighter throughout his career and has only been able to beat low level opponents. He offers nothing on the ground and also has a very limited gas tank. The odds of him winning this fight are similar to the odds of him becoming the first Heavyweight astronaut, and the ownership will reflect that. His best chance to win would be to either catch Romanov coming in with a clean punch or to win by some sort of disqualification. You’re truly lighting money on fire if you play him in DFS, but he’s arguably in one of the best leverage spots you could ask for from an ownership perspective. The odds imply he has an 11% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it occurs in the first round.
Fight #3
Maycee Barber
7th UFC Fight (4-2)This matchup had originally been booked back in December, but De La Rosa ended up withdrawing and getting replaced by Erin Blanchfield. At that point Barber then made a business decision and also smartly withdrew, allowing Maverick to step in and get eviscerated by Blanchfield.
After starting out her career 8-0 with seven finishes, Barber has since gone 1-2 in three straight decisions. She’s coming off a close/questionable decision win over Miranda Maverick and arguably should be on a three fight skid if that fight had been judged correctly. That split-decision win in her last match came down to how the judges scored the second round as all three judges awarded Maverick the first round and Barber the third. In that second round, Maverick outlanded Barber 15-13 in significant strikes and 28-15 in total strikes, while also landing her only takedown attempt with 81 seconds of control time and stuffing Barber’s lone takedown attempt. The first four minutes of the round seemed close, but Maverick landed a takedown in the final minute and took Barber’s back, which appeared to be enough to win her the round, although two of the judges disagreed. The fight ended with Maverick ahead in significant strikes 47-36 and total strikes 82-38, while landing her only takedown attempt and stuffing 5 of Barber’s 6 attempts.
Prior to that fortunate win, Barber lost a decision to Alexa Grasso in Barber’s first fight back after completely tearing her left ACL against Roxanne Modafferi in January 2020. After a bizarre start where we saw Barber try to jab at Grasso from across the Octagon, Barber did appear to start turning it on in the third round, but it was too little too late. Barber actually finished slightly ahead in significant strikes 40-38 while landing three takedowns on five attempts, but Grasso led in total strikes 95-50, while tacking on a reversal, submission attempt, and nearly six minutes of control time.
Barbers suffered a knee injury early in her previous fight against Roxanne Modafferi but gritted through the injury to at least see a decision, although she wasn’t able to do much in the match. Prior to that loss, Barber was 8-0 as a pro and 3-0 in the UFC. Seven of her eight career wins came early, with five straight KO victories after landing a pair of first round submissions wins in her first three pro fights. The only decision win of her career came in her second pro fight against UFC fighter Mallory Martin back in 2017. Only one of Barber’s five KO wins came in the first round, with the other two split across rounds two and three.
Barber came into the UFC in 2018 following a third round TKO win on DWCS, and proceeded to land three more TKOs against Hanna Cifers, J.J. Aldrich, and Gillian Robertson leading up to her knee injury. We haven’t seen the same Maycee Barber since she returned from her knee injury and we’re starting to wonder if we ever will. She’s still just 23 years old, and her problems appear more mental than physical. She’s throwing strikes from way out of range and lacks the aggression that got her to an 8-0 record to start her career. She’d likely benefit from seeing a sports psychologist to help her regain her confidence, although for all we know she’s been to one. In 2021 Barber moved from Roufusport to Team Alpha Male, so she at least tried to change something up.
Barber has a 66% career takedown defense, although it hasn’t been tested a ton, as she’s only faced four takedown attempts since joining the UFC—one from Miranda Maverick, who landed it, two from Gillian Robertson, who failed on both, and one from Modafferi who took down an injured Barber. For those of you trying to figure out how that equates to a 66% defense, she also defended both of her opponent’s attempts back on DWCS in 2018, which is factored into the official stats. So while Barber was able to defend all four takedown attempts against her prior to her knee injury, she’s been taken down twice on just two attempts following the injury. In fairness, one of those was in the same fight as the injury.
Overall, Barber is primarily a striker but has begun to mix in more takedown attempts since switching to Team Alpha Male. She’s gone 4 for 11 on her attempts in her two fights following the switch in teams, while she went just 1 for 5 prior to that in her first four UFC fights.
Montana De La Rosa
9th UFC Fight (5-2-1)Coming off her most impressive performance to date, De La Rosa destroyed Ariane Lipski on the mat and finished the fight late in round two with ground and pound to notch her first career KO/TKO victory. That was Lipski’s second straight ground and pound TKO loss where she got controlled on the mat, so it was an easy finish to see coming against the wrestler in De La Rosa. The fight ended with De La Rosa landing two of her three takedown attempts with nearly seven minutes of control time in a nine and a half minute fight. De La Rosa also led in significant strikes 29-11 and in total strikes 66-37.
That was a hugely necessary win for De La Rosa, who had gone 1-2-1 in her previous four fights. All four of those previous matches had ended in decisions and her last seven fights have all made it out of the first round since she landed a round one submission in her 2017 UFC debut. De La Rosa submitted her first three opponents in the UFC leading up to her 1-2-1 run where she went to four straight decisions. Over that stretch, she lost to Andrea Lee and Viviane Araujo, defeated Mara Romero Borella, and fought Mayra Bueno Silva to a draw.
In her second most recent fight, De La Rosa took on a tough Mayra Bueno Silva and fought to a draw, but to some extent was lucky to get that. Bueno Silva was deducted a point in the first round for a blatant fence grab, which is what caused the draw. Bueno Silva led the fight in significant strikes 52-30 and total strikes 111-107, while De La Rosa went 3 for 12 on takedowns and amassed over nine minutes of control time. De La Rosa’s nose issues popped up again in that fight, which seems like a typical occurrence for her at this point, but that appears to be more of an annoyance than an actual hindrance.
Looking back one fight further, De La Rosa took on an incredibly tough Viviane Araujo in what was her best striking performance to date, where she actually outlanded Viviane Araujo 85-82 in significant strikes (5.67 SSL/min.), but lost a unanimous decision. The decision was entirely fair, as Araujo clearly did more damage as she busted up the nose of De La Rosa and seriously compromised her lead leg with 13 heavy leg strikes. De La Rosa has such long legs that she looks more vulnerable to leg strikes than most, based on her wider stance.
De La Rosa is now 12-6-1 as a pro, with one win by TKO, eight by submission, and three decisions. Seven of her nine finishes have come in the later rounds, with four of those ending in round two and three in round three. She has one TKO loss on her record, which came in the third round of a 2017 LFA fight against Cynthia Calvillo. She’s also been submitted once, which came in the first round of a 2016 match against Mackenzie Dern, before either of them joined the UFC. De La Rosa’s other four career losses all ended in decisions and she’s gone just 3-4-1 with the judges.
Despite her 5’7” height, De La Rosa actually fought at 115 lb early in her career and only moved up to 125 lb when she went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2017. She doesn’t land a ton of striking volume and averages just 2.87 SSL/min. She’s only landed more than 56 significant strikes in one of her eight UFC fights. She’s landed 14 takedowns on 45 attempts (31.1%) since joining the UFC, with at least one landed in six straight fights. Her background is in wrestling, but she continues to try and improve her striking. She hasn’t submitted anybody since her third UFC fight back in 2019 and all of her UFC submission wins came against low level talents.
Fight Prediction:
De La Rosa will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Considering this fight had originally been scheduled back in December before De La Rosa withdrew, these two have had ample time to prepare for one another. It’s no secret that De La Rosa comes in looking to wrestle, and Barber has had a massive amount of time to prepare for that. Barber has only been taken down twice in the UFC and never more than once by any single opponent. While she’s primarily a striker, she’s been looking for more takedowns of her own since switching camps to Team Alpha Male, so clearly she’s been working on her grappling. While we don’t expect her to be looking to take De La Rosa down much, that work should help Barber to keep this fight mostly standing. There’s still a good chance De La Rosa will be able to test her on the mat at some point, but a dominant wrestling performance by De La Rosa appears unlikely. However, Barber has looked so tentative lately, that if De La Rosa can steal a round through grappling, she’ll have a decent chance to win a decision, but we’d be far more surprised to see her land another finish. Barber has still never been finished in her career and her newfound lack of aggression generally increases the odds that her fights will end in disappointing decisions. Barber should still hold the striking advantage, and if she can get out of the funk she’s in then she still has the physical abilities to finish opponents on the feet. De La Rosa has dealt with a recurring nose injury throughout her career, and if Barber can bust her up early, we could see De La Rosa struggle with that down the stretch. The biggest question mark in this matchup is whether Barber will continue to look terribly tentative for the first two rounds or if she can finally return to her old form. If she comes out of the gates hot then we could see a mid to late round TKO win for Barber. However, if this looks like her last two fights then we expect Barber to win a close decision, which is the more likely of the two outcomes and what we’re expecting to happen.
Our favorite bet here is “Barber R2 or R3 KO” at +750.
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DFS Implications:
Barber is a KO or bust fighter who scored just 54 DraftKings points in her lone UFC decision win that came in her most recent fight. She started off her career with eight straight wins, with seven of those coming early, but hasn’t looked the same since tearing her ACL in 2020 and has now gone 1-2 in three straight decisions. While she landed TKO wins in her first three UFC matches, she’s also never landed a knockdown, so she scored “just” 105, 93 and 111 DraftKings points in those three finishes. Now she faces an opponent who’s never been knocked down in eight UFC fights, so there’s little reason to think that changes here. At her expensive price tag, Barber will need multiple things to go right to return value, and we don’t see her scoring even remotely well without a finish. Barber’s recent struggles appear to be more mental than physical, so there’s always a chance she can snap out of it at any point, but we’re losing confidence in her with each fight that passes. The biggest thing she has going for her here is that she’ll be low owned in tournaments following three straight poor performances. If she can throw caution to the wind and come out swinging, while also keeping the fight standing, she should hold a sizable striking advantage and has the potential to land a late TKO. That’s really her only path to scoring well. The odds imply she has a 63% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
De La Rosa is reliant on her wrestling to win fights and four of her five UFC wins have come from finishes on the mat. She has just a 31% career takedown accuracy, but has landed at least one takedown in six straight fights. Barber has a 66% career takedown defense but has only had to defend four takedowns in her last six matches and two of those were completed. It’s harder to see De La Rosa winning a pure striking battle, not that Barber has looked great lately. So if De La Rosa does win, it likely means she found grappling success to either grind out a decision win or land a finish. That all sounds great for DFS, especially on DraftKings, but keep in mind De La Rosa’s recent massive scoring performance will drive up her ownership and now she’s in a much tougher spot to succeed. Barber has never been finished in her career and should put up far more wrestling resistance than Ariane Lipski in De La Rosa’s last fight. We expect the field to be chasing De La Rosa here in what looks like a trap spot, so we don’t have a ton of interest in playing her in tournaments, despite the fact that we loved her going into her last fight. The odds imply she has a 37% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Clay Guida
33rd UFC Fight (17-15)Guida was moments away from getting finished in the first round of his last fight, but the fight was never stopped and Leonardo Santos ended up punching himself out. It’s anyone’s guess why the 4th degree BJJ black belt and former 7-time Jiu-Jitsu world champion didn’t simply grab the neck of a face down Guida, but he was made to pay for that terrible decision making when Guida took him down and submitted him early in round two. Santos had nothing left at that point as he did his best Rodolfo Vieira impression.
Just prior to that win, Guida suffered a split-decision loss to Mark O. Madsen, and Guida has now dropped three of his last five fights and has only finished two opponents in the last decade, as he’s gone 2-6 in fights that end early since 2011. In fairness to him, his last three early losses came against really tough opponents in Jim Miller, Charles Oliveira, and Brian Ortega. Guida has gone 6-2 in his last eight decisions, although he’s lost two of the last three. His kinetic fighting style essentially relies on him outlasting his opponents to win decisions. He’s been prone to getting submitted, with 10 of his 21 career losses ending in submissions. He’s also been knocked out twice. He turned pro all the way back in 2003 and now holds a 37-21 pro record. Seven of his wins have ended in KOs, 14 in submissions, and 15 in decisions.
In his fight against Madsen, we surprisingly saw the fight play out entirely on the feet, despite Madsen’s Olympic wrestling background. Madsen curiously only shot for a single takedown attempt as he was comfortable sitting behind his jab to try and win a striking battle. Guida was unable to take advantage of Madsen’s striking inexperience, which isn’t a good sign for Guida’s chances moving forward. The fight ended with Madsen ahead in significant strikes 98-72.
Just prior to that, Guida notched his only other win since 2019 in a decision victory over Michael Johnson. Guida was able to take Johnson down three times on seven attempts with nearly seven minutes of control time, while Johnson led in significant strikes 58-49 and in total strikes 70-65.
Guida has a wrestling background, but largely relies on weaponizing his cardio to win fights whether they play out on the feet or the mat. He pushes a high pace with lots of movement, but isn’t especially dangerous anywhere and generally relies on his opponents tiring out to win fights.
Claudio Puelles
6th UFC Fight (5-1)Coming off a third round submission win over one-dimensional striker Chris Gruetzemacher, Puelles now has six career submission wins and five of those have occurred in the later rounds. He was able to suck Gruetzemacher into a grappling battle as we saw over nine minutes of combined control time, 6:20-2:49 in favor of Puelles, in a fight that lasted 13 and half minutes. Puelles only landed 1 of his 8 takedown attempts and telegraphed everything as he sloppily looked to get fights to the mat. He was fortunate that Gruetzemacher was so willing to engage in grappling exchanges and there were multiple points where Gruetzemacher had the opportunity to back away and force Puelles to stand up but never did. Puelles finished ahead in significant strikes 43-38, while Gruetzemacher led in total strikes 96-72.
Prior to that win, Puelles won a painfully slow-paced grappling match against one-dimensional wrestler Jordan Leavitt. Puelles was able to control Leavitt for most of the fight as he finished with 10 minutes of control time on four takedowns, while stuffing 5 of Leavitt’s 7 attempts, but Puelles never threatened a finish and Leavitt led in significant strikes 21-20 and in total strikes 170-71. Puelles won a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Puelles made his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter Latin America and lost his 2016 debut in a R2 TKO to Martin Bravo, who then lost his next three UFC fights before being released. Bravo finished Puelles in the second round, while outlanding him 56-29 in significant strikes and 64-29 in total strikes. Puelles looked pretty hittable and Bravo was on pace to land 121 significant strikes if the fight had gone the distance. Puelles went 1 for 6 on takedowns in the match, and was only able to notch 34 seconds of control time. He was anything but impressive and ended up going down from a liver shot early in the second round and the fight was quickly stopped moments later.
Following the 2016 loss, Puelles didn’t fight again for 18 months before taking on Felipe Silva, who came in 1-1 in the UFC, was cut following the fight, and has now lost three straight matches outside of the UFC. Puelles defeated Silva with a third round kneebar to notch his first UFC win, however, Silva was absolutely dominating the fight up to that point, as he led in significant strikes 70-16, total strikes 103-16, and control time 2:52-1:28. Silva also went 1 for 1 on takedowns, while Puelles ended up 2 for 7. Puelles didn’t want any part of a striking battle and even pulled guard a couple of times to try and get the fight to the mat. Silva nearly finished Puelles late in the second round, but Puelles was saved by the bell. Less than a minute into round three, Silva dropped Puelles with a stiff right hand and the fight looked moments away from being stopped, as Silva continued to obliterate Puelles. However, Puelles shot for a desperation takedown and despite failing on the attempt, he was able to go for a hail mary Kneebar as Silva appeared to let his guard down for just a second—likely due to how easily he was controlling the fight. Puelles was able to force a tap from Silva in a crazy comeback. While it goes down as a finish for Puelles, that was about as lucky as he could get in a fight that he had no business winning.
In his next bout, Puelles took on Marcos Mariano, who entered 0-1 in the UFC and was also cut immediately afterwards. Puelles won a smothering decision, with a bizarrely low 22-2 significant striking total, but leading 101-5 in total strikes. Puelles landed 4 of 6 takedowns and amassed a ridiculous 13 and a half minutes of control time against an opponent who managed to do literally nothing for 15 minutes. Easily one of the worst performances of all time, it’s not surprising Mariano was cut following the absentee showing. Mariano finished his UFC career 0-2 with just shy of four rounds of total Octagon time, and landed an absurdly low 5 combined significant strikes and 9 total strikes with no other stats to show for himself. Truly one of the more puzzling “careers” anyone could have.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Puelles has two wins by KO, six by submission and three decisions. The only time he’s been finished was in a second round TKO in his UFC debut, with his only other loss ending in a 2014 decision prior to joining the UFC. Despite making his UFC debut all the way back in 2016, Puelles is still just 25 years old. He’s a one-dimensional grappler who’s only ever threatened to finish anyone at the UFC level with kneebar submissions and while he’s attempted 31 takedowns in the UFC, he’s only landed 12 of them (38.7%). He’s been fortunate to win as many fights as he has and he’s due for some regression in the near future.
Fight Prediction:
Puelles will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also 15 years younger than the 40-year-old Guida.
You know it’s a pretty rough card when Puelles/Guida is the co-main event. It’s tough to see Puelles winning many striking battles, so this fight will likely come down to whether or not he’s able to take Guida down and control him and/or land a submission. Puelles has landed just 12 of his 31 takedown attempts so far in his five UFC fights (38.7%), and has only looked dangerous with kneebar submissions. While Guida has been submitted 10 times in his career, eight of those have come by choke, while two have been by armbar. Guida has only had to defend four takedown attempts in his last 10 fights, and three of those came from Bobby Green, who landed two. So while Guida has a 68% career takedown defense, it’s rarely been tested in the last five years. Over that same period of time, he’s landed 11 takedowns of his own on 43 attempts (25.6%), so he’s generally been the one initiating the wrestling exchanges. While it would be nice to have more recent data to go off, considering how sloppy Puelles has been with his takedown attempts and Guida’s wrestling background, it would be surprising if Puelles was easily able to take him to the mat. Neither one of these two excel in striking, but Guida should have the advantage on the feet as long as he can overcome his height and reach disadvantages. That should allow him to point his way to a decision win. Puelles best shot at winning will be to land a submission, but we like Guida to narrowly grind out a decision victory.
Our favorite bet here is “Guida by Decision” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Guida is generally looking to grind out grappling-heavy decisions, but now he’s going up against a one-dimensional submission specialist, so it remains to be seen what his approach will be. It would make sense for Guida to force Puelles into a striking battle, but whether or not that happens is a different story. Guida has been prone to getting submitted, but it’s generally from falling into guillotines or rear-naked chokes. Puelles is primarily a kneebar specialist, which is not a way that Guida has ever been submitted. Regardless, Puelles doesn’t offer much on the feet and Guida could likely point his way to a decision. However, it’s hard to see that approach scoring well in a decision and while Guida has shown a decent scoring floor on DraftKings even in decision wins, his scores are generally propped up by wrestling. He’s never landed more than 80 significant strikes in any of his 32 UFC fights, and he’ll either need a finish, something he’s only done twice since 2011, or else a grappling heavy decision win to have any chance of scoring well. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Puelles is a one-dimensional grappler with questionable submission skills who relies purely on takedowns, control time, and finishes to score even remotely well in DFS. We’ve never been at all impressed by him and now he’ll go against a long time UFC veteran with a wrestling background. Working in Puelles’ favor, Guida has been submitted 10 times in his career. However, Guida has generally been the most prone to getting choked out, while Puelles spends most of his time looking for kneebars. Guida has a 68% career takedown defense, but has only had to defend four takedowns in his last 10 fights, with two of those being completed. That makes it tougher to fully gauge the current status of Guida’s takedown defense as he’s now 40 years old and stats from a decade ago are less meaningful. However, Puelles has looked bad with his takedown attempts, and we expect Guida to be able to stuff them. We’re expecting this fight to end in a lower scoring decision with neither guy ending up in winning lineups, and it will likely take a finish for either of them to be useful. The odds imply Puelles has a 50% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #1
Jessica Andrade
21st UFC Fight (13-7)Moving back down to 115 lb, Andrade switches weight classes more often than hair styles. The last time we saw her she landed a first round TKO against Cynthia Calvillo up at 125 lb. That was her third straight fight at 125 lb after she moved up from 115 lb following a 2020 decision loss to Rose Namajunas. Andrade previously held the 115 lb belt for a very brief amount of time in 2019 when she knocked Rose Namajunas out with a slam the first time they fought, however, Andrade immediately relinquished the title when she got knocked out by Zhang Weili 42 seconds into her first title defense. Now that Weili lost the title to Namajunas and then failed to win it back in an immediate rematch, Andrade is clearly gunning for another title shot in a trilogy fight against Namajunas, which makes a lot of sense when the alternative title fight she could chase would be a rematch with Valentina Shevchenko, who recently had her way with Andrade at 125 lb.
Andrade actually started her career up at 135 lb, where she went 4-3 in her first seven UFC fights. All three of those losses came early in round one and two, while three of the four wins ended in decisions. Her only early win at 135 lb came in a 2014 first round guillotine submission win against an opponent who finished her UFC career 0-2 with both losses ending early. After getting submitted herself in two of her final three fights at 135 lb, Andrade moved all the way down from 135 lb to 115 lb in 2016, bypassing the 125 lb division altogether. Over her next 10 fights, Andrade went 7-3 at 115 lb. After she won her first three fights at the new weight class, the UFC awarded her a title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2017.
Jedrzejczyk is 5’6” with a 65” reach, compared to Andrade who’s 5’1” with a 62” reach. Jedrzejczyk did a good job of utilizing her size and reach advantage to outland Andrade as Jedrzejczyk did a great job of controlling the distance and avoiding getting pinned against the cage. That fight did notably take place in the large 30 ft Octagon, which played in Jedrzejczyk’s favor. Andrade consistently tried to pick up and slam Jedrzejczyk, but Jedrzejczyk did a good job of bracing the falls with a leg and refusing to get controlled on the mat. Andrade finished with just two takedowns landed on 10 attempts. Andrade chased Jedrzejczyk around the Octagon throughout the fight, but Jedrzejczyk finished massively ahead 225-83 in significant strikes and 230-94 in total strikes as she cruised to a 25 minute decision win and won every round on all three judges’ scorecards.
Andrade bounced back from the loss in her first career five-round fight with four straight wins, culminating with a second round KO by slam to win the Strawweight belt against Rose Namajunas in 2019. However, after losing the belt to Weili in her next fight and then losing a decision to Namajunas after that, Andrade moved up to 125 lb in 2020 and finished decision-machine Katlyn Chookagian late in the first round. That was enough to get Andrade a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko, who took Andrade down a perfect seven times on seven attempts and outlanded her 32-10 in significant strikes before finishing her with ground and pound midway through the second round. That was one of the rare times where we’re seen Andrade overpowered in a fight since she dropped down from 135 lb.
Bouncing back from the loss with her recent win over Calvillo, Andrade aggressively pushed forward and happily traded strikes with Calvillo, who did her best to circle the outside of the Octagon and pick her spots. The damage eventually added up and Calvillo simply covered up along the fence in the final 10 seconds of the round as Andrade teed off on her and the fight was stopped with six seconds remaining on the clock. Andrade set a furious pace landing 9.80 SS/min, as she finished ahead 48-27 in striking with neither fighter attempting a takedown. Andrade went 2-1 at 125 lb, but will now return to 115 lb.
Andrade has now gone just 2-3 in her last five fights, but all of those loses came against current or former champions and she’s been dominating everyone else. Her only other loss since dropping down from 135 lb was against another champion in Jedrzejczyk, and three of her four UFC losses at 115/125 lb have come in title fights and the other was against former/future champion Rose Namajunas in a top contender fight.
Now 22-9 as a pro, Andrade has nine wins by KO, seven by submission and six decisions. Six of her nine career losses have also come early, with four KOs, two submissions, and three decisions. Six of her last seven fights have ended in KO/TKOs in the first two rounds (4-2).
Overall, Andrade is an aggressive striker who constantly pushes forward looking to land fight ending shots and slam her opponents unconscious. She’s willing to take one to land one, which has gotten her into trouble at times. She struggles the most with longer opponents who have good footwork and can counter her from distance while avoiding the shots coming from Andrande. Her seven UFC losses have all come against opponents who range from 5’4” to 5’7” and now she’ll face the 5’4” Amanda Lemos.
Amanda Lemos
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Lemos is coming off just the third decision of her career in a close split-decision win over Angela Hill. She came close to landing her third straight first round knockout when she landed a kick up the middle to the chin of Hill a minute into the fight, but Hill was able to recover off her back as the next two minutes remained on the mat. Hill was able to land a big right hand later in the round, but Lemos appeared to recover quickly. The biggest moment of the round was clearly the front kick from Lemos, which seemed to win her the round. Hill did better in round two, as she was able to both outland Lemos and control her for periods of time along the fence. After splitting the first two rounds, but appearing to slow down in round two, Lemos found her second wind to some extent in round three and landed another big front kick early in the round. Hill landed a takedown soon after, but Lemos refused to accept bottom position and quickly worked her way to the fence and back to her feet. Hill continued to look for takedowns, but Lemos was able to fight through her later attempts and continued to throw heavy shots. Hill partially landed a spinning elbow in the final 30 seconds, but it appeared to land on the shoulder area of Lemos and not cause much damage. Overall the third round was close, but two of the three judges felt that Lemos had done enough and awarded her the win. The fight was so close it could have gone either way, and it was one of Hill’s better performances. Lemos narrowly finished ahead in significant strikes 50-48, while Hill slightly led in total strikes 74-68. Hill landed 1 of her 7 takedown attempts, while Lemos missed on all three of her attempts.
Now on a five-fight winning streak, prior to her recent decision win Lemos landed back-to-back R1 KO wins. In those matches, she easily finished a pair of grapplers in Livinha Souza and Montserrat Ruiz, both of whom had never been put away early before in their respective careers. The only loss of Lemos’ career occurred in her 2017 UFC debut in a R2 TKO against brawler Leslie Smith up at 135 lb. Lemos gassed out hard in the fight before getting finished. A few months after the loss, Lemos was hit with a lengthy suspension after she tested positive for steroids and ended up taking 29 months off before returning to the Octagon. Just like Andrade, Lemos started off at 135 lb, and then dropped two weight classes at once to move down to 115 lb in 2019 for he second pro fight when she returned in 2019. It’s not surprising that she moved down in weight, as she looked undersized for the 135 lb division, but it is unusual to move down two weight classes at once—although both fighters in this matchup have done it. Lemos bounced back from the debut loss with a first round rear-naked choke against Miranda Granger, which is the only time Granger has been finished in her career.
Lemos holds an 11-1-1 pro record with seven wins by KO, two by submission and just two decisions. Eight of her nine finishes have come in the first round, with the one exception being a 2016 early third round KO. Her only career loss was the R2 TKO against Smith at 135 lb. Lemos also fought to a draw back in 2016 when she was still competing at 135 lb. She’s only been past the first round twice in the UFC and both of those fights went the distance. She’s unquestionably the most dangerous in round one, but she did still look somewhat dangerous in the third round of her last fight. While she’s primarily a striker, she will look to lock up submissions on the mat, although she’s not an overwhelming submission threat and could stand to improve her technique.
Now 34 years old, Lemos got a late start in MMA as she didn’t turn pro until 2014 when she was already 27 years old. She’s a powerful but patient striker who relies more on landing big shots than a ton of volume, but once she gets an opponent hurt she’ll unload to try and finish fights. She’s landed five knockdowns in her last four fights, with at least one in each of those.
Fight Prediction:
Lemos will have a 3” height and reach advantage. Despite having 14 more UFC fights than Lemos, Andrade is four years younger than the 34-year-old Lemos.
For as rough as this card is as a whole, this sets up as a top shelf matchup. These are two of the most dangerous strikers in the division and this matchup sets up for pure violence. Many of the times we’ve seen Andrade struggle have been when she faces longer fighters with good footwork who can control the distance, avoid getting pushed up against the cage, and pick Andrade apart at range. Lemos fits that description, but the question is how aggressive she’ll be against a brawler like Andrade. The smartest game plan for Lemos would be to stay in open space at the edge of striking range where she can connect but Andrade can’t. However, this fight will notably take place at the Apex in the smaller cage, which will make it easier for Andrade to close the distance compared to some of her past title fights in 30 ft Octagons. Lemos also doesn't have as elite footwork as Rose Namajunas and Joanna Jedrzejczyk, making it less likely that she can do quite as exceptional of a job keeping Andrade at range. That should result in this turning into more of a firefight, with both ladies swinging until someone goes down. They each pack a ton of power and have also both looked fairly hittable making the outcome here a trickier one to predict. We like Lemos’ chances to put Andrade down in the first round, but if the fight lasts longer than five minutes it should begin to shift in Andrade’s favor, as she’s shown the better cardio of the two. Our official pick is Lemos by round one KO, but if she fails to achieve that then there’s a good chance Andrade is able to knock her out in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 3.5 Rounds” at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Andrade’s aggressive fighting style is perfectly tailored for DFS production and she’s averaged 116 DraftKings points in her 13 UFC wins, with 11 of those victories scoring 100 or more, eight scoring at least 115, and three topping 130. In addition to her high-volume striking, she’s frequently looking to slam opponents to the mat and averages 2.9 takedowns landed/15 min, in addition to her 6.24 SSL/min. Her last four wins have all come by KO in the first two rounds. This will be the fifth five-round fight of Andrade’s career, but the first that isn’t for a title. She went just 1-3 in the previous four, but in fairness those losses all came against current or future champions in Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Zhang Weili, and Valentina Shevchenko. Only one of those four fights made it past the second round. We’re not expecting this fight to run long either, as Andrade has a finish or get finished approach to fighting. We have seen Andrade struggle with rangier opponents in the past who have been able to control the distance, and all seven of her UFC losses have come against fighters who are at least 3” taller than her (Lemos’ will have a 3” height and reach advantage in this next match). However, if Andrade can survive the first round, she should have the cardio advantage from there on out, making a mid round knockout more likely. The odds imply Andrade has a 61% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Lemos has put up slate breaking scores in two of her last three fights and has scored 91 or more DraftKings points in four of her five UFC wins overall. She’s an incredibly dangerous striker and Andrade has been knocked out four times in her career. Despite this being a tougher opponent than her last fight, this actually looks like a better spot for Lemos to land a finish compared to her last match against Angela Hill, who has never been knocked out in her career. With Andrade coming off a big first round knockout win and Lemos coming off a far less impressive split-decision victory, this looks like a good buy-low spot on Lemos, as recency bias will push ownership even further to Andrade’s side of things. With eight of Lemos’ 11 career wins coming in the first round, she’s been mostly a round one or bust fighter. However, she’s gone 2-0-1 in the three decisions she’s been to so she hasn’t completely fallen apart following the first round even if she has slowed down. With that said, we’re really relying on her to land a finish here if we play here, and Andrade should hold the cardio advantage the longer this fight goes. The odds imply Lemos has a 39% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
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