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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Nurullo Aliev
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a first round ground and pound TKO win on DWCS, Aliev is making history as the first UFC fighter from Tajikistan. He’s appropriately nicknamed the “Tajik Eagle” and his wrestling-heavy style of fighting mimics that of Khabib. He’s still just 23 years old and continuing to improve as a striker, but he’s been absolutely smothering all of his recent opponents on the mat.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Aliev has two wins by TKO and six decisions. He had gone the distance in four straight fights leading up to his recent early win and his only other finish was a 2018 post R2 TKO resulting from a corner stoppage.
Overall, Aliev is a relentless wrestler who’s very efficient at getting opponents to the mat. He does a great job of mixing up the way he lands takedowns, making it really tough for opponents to defend them. He’s a Combat Sambo champion and has also trained in Thailand with Chimaev and Fiziev and at Kill Cliff FC with Burns. He’s typically just looking for ground and pound on the mat, opposed to looking for submissions, but control is generally his primary focus. He’s not helpless on the feet, but is really only using his striking to set up takedowns. At such a young age, Aliev has tons of time to continue to refine his game, but his wrestling looks on point.
Rafael Alves
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Desperate for a win, Alves is now 1-2 in the UFC and potentially fighting for his job after he got knocked out in the third round of his last fight from a Drew Dober body shot. Prior to that, Alves landed a quick guillotine finish against Marc Diakiese, after losing a decision in his UFC debut against another really tough fighter in Damir Ismagulov. Somebody seriously needs to explain to Alves’ manager that the goal is not to find the toughest matchups possible, although at this point it’s too late. Alves has looked like a one trick pony so far in the UFC, as he tries to end every fight by guillotine, which is how he’s finished three of his last four wins.
Now 20-11 as a pro, Alves has seven wins by KO, eight submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted six times, and has one decision loss. While 25 of his 31 fights have ended early, 12 of his last 13 matches have made it past the first round. However, only four of those 13 fights made it to the judges, and five of his last six matches have ended early. Seven of Alves’ last eight losses have ended in the later rounds and while he’s a fast starter, he fades later on in fights.
Overall, Alves is a Muay Thai and BJJ black belt and a dangerous finisher, but has a limited gas tank and seems to do everything he can to drain it before fights even start. Clearly he’s not the brightest guy and he does more backflips than winning inside the Octagon. He doesn’t throw a ton of volume but has solid power when he does connect. One thing to keep in mind, five of his seven career KO wins notably came in his first seven pro fights, all against opponents fighting for the first time professionally, and another was against a 1-8 opponent. He’s only landed one knockout since 2012 and almost all of his recent finishes have come by submission. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS match, Alves has landed just one takedown on four attempts (25% accuracy), while he’s been taken down by his opponents twice on five attempts (60% defense). He’s generally either looking to defend takedowns with guillotine attempts or snatch up opponents’ necks after hurting them on the feet. He has all the physical skills to be successful in the UFC but his low fight IQ, terrible cardio, and masochist of a manager will be his demise.
Fight Prediction:
Aliev will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. He’s also nine years younger than the 32-year-old Alves.
On the surface this may look like a matchup where Alves should have ample opportunity to lock up a guillotine, but Aliev’s head position on his takedowns appears solid and he doesn’t really leave his neck out there to be snatched. And while Alves is a more powerful striker than Aliev, he likely won’t have many opportunities to show it, as we expect Aliev to quickly get this fight to the mat. That likely leaves Alves with a very tiny window to either land an immediate knockout or lock up a guillotine on Aliev’s first takedown attempt, both of which are unlikely. After Aliev takes Alves down and grinds on him for a bit, Alves’ cardio will be zapped and he’ll turn into a pumpkin in the later rounds. That will increase the chances we see a late round ground and pound TKO finish for Aliev, just keep in mind four of his last five wins have ended in decisions and it’s also entirely possible he just grinds on Alves for 15 minutes and doesn’t really push for a finish. With that said, Alves rarely survives to see the judges and 7 of his last 8 losses have ended in rounds two (3) or three (4), so we’ll say Aliev forces a stoppage from ground strikes in the later rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Aliev KO or DEC” at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Aliev is a smothering wrestler who excels at taking opponents down and controlling them, while also landing ground and pound. He’s still undefeated, but coming off just the second finish of his career. That recent first round TKO win on DWCS would have been good for 109 DraftKings points and 124 points on FanDuel. In his last two decision wins before going on DWCS, he put up huge takedown numbers, while racking up control time and ground strikes, and he looks like he was born for the DraftKings scoring system. He’ll have a tougher time scoring really well on FanDuel without a finish, but his takedown volume does give him a really solid floor on both sites. He’s still just 23 years old and should be improving with every match, but it will also be interesting to see how he handles the bright lights of his UFC debut at such a young age and taking on a much more seasoned veteran. We expect him to be fine, but you never know with debuting fighters. Working in his favor, Alves gasses out later in fights and if Aliev can avoid absorbing any big strikes or tripping into a guillotine in the first round, he should be able to control this fight and either land a late ground and pound finish or secure a grappling-heavy decision win. While we expect Aliev to be popular based on his fighting style and how his last few fights have gone, he looks like a great play. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Alves is a low-volume striker who relies on landing finishes to score well in DFS. His lack of volume also means a later round finish isn’t guaranteed to be enough. That theory is confirmed when we look at the second round submission win he landed on DWCS, which would have scored just 76 DraftKings points. Even in his lone UFC victory, which ended in a first round guillotine, Alves scored just 92 DraftKings points. Guillotines are his go to move, which is problematic for DFS as it lowers his chances of landing a takedown or knockdown in a finish. Alves also has cardio concerns later on in fights and has only landed one takedown in his last four matches. Alves was unable to submit Drew Dober, who’s been prone to getting submitted in the past, and we’d be surprised if he found a submission here. With that said, at his cheap price tag if he does find a finish he won’t need a massive score to crack winning lineups, which at least keeps him in play to some extent. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Joe Solecki
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Solecki had originally been scheduled to face Benoit Saint-Denis on last week’s card, but Saint-Denis dropped out and Deaton stepped in on short notice, while the fight was also pushed back a week.
Coming off a pair of split decisions (1-1), Solecki was fortunate to get his hand raised in his last fight as it looked like the fight was destined to end in a draw after Alex Da Silva was deducted a point in the second round. Solecki got dropped in the opening seconds of the fight and then controlled for basically the entire first round, but bounced back in round two and controlled Da Silva for the entire round. Da Silva was also deducted a crucial point late in the round for repeated glove grabs. It looked like Da Silva had done enough in round three to force a draw, but only two of the judges agreed and one of those two had scored round two 10-8 in favor of Solecki before the point deduction, which resulted in Solecki winning the fight. Prior to that, Solecki dropped a close split-decision to Jared Gordon in October 2021, after winning his previous six matches, including a win over Jim Miller just before the loss to Gordon. Solecki got his shot in the UFC with a first round submission win on DWCS in 2019, and then absolutely smothered veteran Matt Wiman for 15 minutes in his 2019 UFC debut. He followed up the lopsided decision win with a first round submission victory in his next match against Austin Hubbard, before winning the decision over Miller.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Solecki has one KO, seven submissions, and four decision wins. His only early loss came in a 2018 R3 KO against Nikolas Motta, who has since joined the UFC. Solecki’s other two defeats both went the distance. All eight of Solecki’s early wins have come in the first round, and the only time one of his fights has ended in the second or third rounds was in his R3 KO loss.
Overall, Solecki is a BJJ black belt and a dominant grappler. He’s constantly looking to get fights to the ground and control opponents while he hunts for submissions. The only concerns we have with him are that we’ve seen him struggle at times on the feet and slow down in the third round of fights. However, after facing three tough veterans, now Solecki gets to go up against a short notice newcomer.
Carl Deaton
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut, Deaton has won his last two fights but lost two in a row just before that. His second most recent win came against former UFC fighter Justin Jaynes. Deaton submitted his last opponent in the second round, but had fought to three straight decisions just before that. We saw him get absolutely dominated on the mat in one of those decisions, where he got taken down 10 times over three rounds and controlled for 9+ minutes.
Now 17-5 as a pro, Deaton has three wins by KO/TKO, nine by submission, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2013), submitted once (R2 2014), and has three decision losses. Eight of his last nine fights have made it out of the first round, with seven of those going the distance. Despite starting his career at 135 lb and now fighting all the way up at 155 lb, Deaton is a habitual weight misser and will be a guy to monitor closely on the scale, especially considering he took this fight on short notice.
Overall, Deaton is a low-level fighter who will mix in takedowns and is a BJJ purple belt, but hasn’t looked very impressive on the mat. He doesn’t throw a ton of striking volume, or have especially impressive power, and nothing really stands out with him. He has a decision loss to a terrible Vince Murdock, who lost on both DWCS and TUF. It looks like Deaton was simply in the right place at the right time to step in on short notice, and we have low expectations with him moving forward.
Fight Prediction:
Solecki will have a 3” height and reach advantage and is four years younger than the 33-year-old Deaton.
Solecki has gone up against three tough opponents in his last three fights so it’s not surprising all of those matches went the distance. However, now he faces a major step down in competition and we expect this to be a massive mismatch in terms of talent. Solecki should be able to easily get this fight to the ground and dominate on the mat and we expect him to submit Deaton with a rear-naked choke in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “Solecki R1 SUB” at +280.
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DFS Implications:
Solecki’s grappling-heavy approach to fighting allows him to score well on DraftKings whether he wins early or smothers his opponent for three rounds on his way to a decision win. The same cannot be said on FanDuel, as Solecki scored a massive 119 DraftKings points in his decision win in his UFC debut, but just 78 points on FanDuel. However, his most recent two decision wins failed to score well on either site, as he faced tougher competition. Now he faces a much easier test and we’re not getting too hung up on his recent scoring struggles. This is an ideal spot for Solecki to either lock up another first round submission or completely dominate the fight on the ground for three rounds. Hopefully his recent scoring and expensive price tag scare some of the field off, as this looks like a prime bounce back spot for Solecki. The odds imply he has an 82% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Deaton has done nothing to impress us on tape and has really struggled with being taken down and controlled at times. He also struggles to make weight and now took this fight on short notice, which could impact his cardio later in the fight. The only reason he’s even getting a shot in the UFC is they needed a late replacement to take on Solecki and the only argument for playing him in tournaments is his ultra-low ownership. That’s still not enough for us to get excited about him and he’ll need a miracle to pull off the upset. The odds imply he has an 18% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Charles Johnson
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Johnson is just 42 day’s removed from a first round TKO win over Jimmy Flick and stepped into this fight on only 11 days’ notice after Denys Bondar dropped out. Johnson has been training in Thailand at Tiger Muay Thai since his last fight and will need to adjust to the time difference quickly. Prior to his recent finish, Johnson won a close split-decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov in November, after losing a smothering decision in his July 2022 UFC debut against Muhammad Mokaev. This will be Johnson’s fourth UFC fight in seven months and third in the last three months. To Johnson’s credit, he was at least able to avoid getting submitted by Mokaev and Johnson has at multiple points shown the ability to survive against dangerous grapplers, as his second most recent loss was in an LFA decision to Brandon Royval. Following the loss to Royval, Johnson won four straight fights leading up to the loss in his UFC debut, with the last three of those wins coming in LFA Flyweight title fights.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Johnson has six wins by KO, three by submission, and four decisions. He’s never been finished, with all three of his losses ending in decisions. Seven of his last eights fights made it out of the first round, with five of those seeing the third round, and two seeing the fifth round of LFA title fights. Nevertheless, three of his last four wins have come by TKO.
Overall, Johnson is an uptempo striker with decent defensive grappling, but not a ton in terms of offensive wrestling. While we’ve seen him get taken down without too much trouble at times, he does a good job of returning to his feet quickly. He doesn’t appear to have a ton of power, but tends to wear on his opponents, with three of his last four finishes coming beyond the first round. After getting taken down 12 times on 26 attempts in his debut against Mokaev, Johnson was only taken down twice on seven attempts in his last two matches.
Ode Osbourne
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Osbourne had been set to face Denys Bondar here, but Bondar dropped out and Johnson was announced as the replacement on February 14th.
Looking to bounce back from a first round KO loss to Tyson Nam, Osbourne has amazingly only seen the second round in one of his last 11 fights. He foolishly jumped up for a flying knee against Name, despite being way out of range, and right as he landed Nam landed a perfect right hand that somersaulted him backwards and Nam finished the show with a few ground strikes as the ref stopped the fight. Prior to that loss, Osbourne landed a first round knockout of his own against a terrible Zarrukh Adashev, after squeaking out a decision win over C.J. Vergara. Osbourne got submitted in the first round of his UFC debut against Brian Kelleher, before knocking out another low-level opponent in Jerome Rivera. He then got knocked out in the first round by Manel Kape leading up to his win over Vergara.
Now 11-5 as a pro, Osbourne has five wins by KO, four by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted two more times, and has one decision loss. His last 14 fights have either ended in the first round (8-4) or gone the distance (2-1). His last four losses have all come in round one, while his lone decision loss occurred back in 2016 in his first trip to the judges. Both of Osbourne’s early wins in the UFC came against very low-level opponents and only two of his seven pre-UFC finishes came against opponents with winning records. Up until he moved down to 125 lb for his last four fights (2-2), Osbourne had competed at 135 lb (6-3) and 145 lb (3-0) for his entire career. He made his UFC debut at 135 lb, before moving up to 145 lb for a short notice matchup against a terrible Jerome Rivera, who Osbourne knocked out in 26 seconds. Osbourne then dropped all the way down to 125 lb, where he’s since gone 2-2.
Overall, Osbourne is an explosive striker with a background in wrestling. However, he lacks durability and cardio and makes some boneheaded decisions inside of the Octagon. He failed to attempt a takedown in his five UFC fights that ended in round one, while he went 1 for 7 on his attempts in his lone UFC decision win. His late-round cardio remains a concern and he hasn’t landed a finish beyond the first round since his 2015 pro debut when he submitted an opponent 70 seconds into round two.
Fight Prediction:
Johnson will have a 2” height advantage, but Osbourne will have a 3” reach advantage. These two are basically exact opposites of one another. Johnson is known for his durability and cardio, but not for his power, and most of his finishes come in the later rounds. Meanwhile, Osbourne has terrible cardio and durability, but is known for his explosive finishing ability in the first round. However, Osbourne has only been able to finish the lowest level of opponents so far in the UFC and his limitations have become evident. Johnson has never been finished in his career, and unless the short notice nature of his fight becomes a debilitating factor for him, we’d be surprised to see Osbourne finish him. However, considering that Johnson is fighting for the third time in three months, took this fight on 11 days’ notice, and just flew over from Thailand (12 hour time difference), there are several additional variables in play. All of those are potential red flags for Johnson, but it’s hard to quantify their exact impact going into the fight. Considering he has such a cardio advantage going in, we’re far less concerned than normal about him gassing out late in the fight. He seems like the type of guy that just stays ready to fight all the time and we still like his chances of outlasting Osbourne if this fight makes it out of the first round.
Both of Osbourne’s two UFC KO losses came against power punchers, while his other early loss came against Kelleher’s patented guillotine choke. Johnson isn’t known for his enormous power or amazing submission abilities, but has shown he’s capable of finishing opponents both on the feet and the mat. It will be interesting to see how aggressive both fighters are here. The last time Osbourne got knocked out, his next fight ended in a close decision, and it will be interesting to see if he’s a little more tentative in this one after getting knocked out once again. With less time to prepare, Johnson may not be able to push quite as hard late in the fight compared to normal, which increases the chances of this fight going the distance. We’ll say Johnson wins a decision here, but this is a trickier spot to predict with all the additional variables in play on Johnson’s side of things.
Our favorite bet here is Johnson’s ML at -160.
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DFS Implications:
Johnson is coming off a R1 TKO win over a fragile Jimmy Flick who hadn’t competed in two years. That was good for 114 DraftKings points but keep in mind it came in a dream matchup against an opponent who has now been knocked out in five of his six pro losses. While Ode Osbourne has also been finished in four of his five defeats, he’s still a little more durable than Flick and won’t be quite as easy to put away. With that said, Osbourne has been finished in the first round in all three of his UFC losses and this is still another decent spot for Johnson to find a finish. Just keep in mind, Johnson fought just 42 days ago and stepped into this matchup on just 11 days’ notice. Neither of those are ideal for showing up in peak condition, but it’s hard to know how much of an impact that will have here. That makes it a slightly more volatile spot. Johnson only scored 83 DraftKings points in his lone decision win, and at his expensive price tag he’ll need a finish here to be useful. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Osbourne has been a R1 or bust fighter throughout his career, but 10 of his last 11 fights have ended in the first five minutes. He’s an explosive striker and also has a background in wrestling, but struggles with his cardio later in fights in the rare occasions that they make it past round one. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s never been finished in his career and this looks like a tough spot for Osbourne to find the early finish he needs. However, the fact that Johnson is stepping in on short notice does add some uncertainty to the mix, which has the potential to benefit Osbourne. In his lone decision win, Osbourne scored just 69 DraftKings points, and even at his cheap price tag that would require almost all of the other underdogs on the slate to lose to be useful. So we’re continuing to treat Osbourne as a R1 or bust play even at his low price. We expect the field to be significantly higher on him than his chances of finding a finish in the opening five minutes, which greatly reduces our interest in playing him. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Victor Martinez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)This matchup had originally been scheduled in April 2022, but Martinez withdrew and it got put back together on this card.
Martinez is now 17 months removed from a decision win on DWCS, although the victory should be taken with a grain of salt as his opponent broke his arm in the fight. Prior to the injury, Martinez got outlanded 43-32 in significant strikes, taken down, and knocked down in the first round. Martinez has now won seven straight fights, but has been pretty fortunate along the way. Prior to his last opponent breaking his arm in the fight, Martinez was the beneficiary of a quick stoppage or two and his previous four decisions were all split, with him winning the last three of those.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Martinez has eight wins by KO/TKO and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. Two of those early losses came in his first two pro fights, with his other submission loss coming in the first round of a 2015 match. His lone decision loss came in a 2016 split decision against a suspect Erick Gonzalez, who coincidentally he’ll be sharing the card with in his upcoming UFC debut. And speaking of coincidences, Martinez’s last submission loss came against Jose Flores, who got submitted himself on DWCS in August 2020 by Jordan Leavitt, who Martinez is now facing in his UFC debut.
Overall, Martinez is allegedly a BJJ black belt, but you wouldn’t guess it by watching him fight. He’s never submitted anybody and looks like a pure striker by all accounts. Martinez landed a ton of striking volume in his last fight, but keep in mind it came against an injured opponent, who has been on DWCS twice and absorbed a combined 286 significant strikes in those two fights. Martinez has a thick and stocky build and seems to have okay power, but hasn’t been the most durable or impressive. He’s only landed one takedown on two attempts in his last three fights and hasn’t shown anything in terms of grappling recently.
Jordan Leavitt
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Looking to bounce back from a second round submission loss to Paddy Pimblett, Leavitt continues to mostly struggle against fellow grapplers, but has yet to lose to a striker. In fairness, he was able to narrowly defeat a debuting grappler in Trey Ogden in a split decision in his second most recent fight, but it certainly wasn’t a convincing win and Leavitt nearly got submitted early on. Leavitt made his UFC debut against a washed up 37-year-old Matt Wiman, who had lost two straight and three of his last four. Leavitt slammed Wiman to the mat 22 seconds into the first round knocking him unconscious in the process. One total strike was landed in the fight. After that, Leavitt suffered his first career loss in a sluggish grappling-heavy decision to Claudio Puelles, who was able to control Leavitt for most of the fight as he finished with 10 minutes of control time on four takedowns, while stuffing 5 of Leavitt’s 7 attempts. Leavitt bounced back from the loss with a second round submission win, but it came against a terrible Matt Sayles, who has zero grappling skills, was fighting up a weight class, and hadn’t competed in two years since getting pantsed by Bryce Mitchell in a first round twister submission loss. He then squeaked out the win against Ogden before losing to Pimblett.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Leavitt has one victory by KO, six by submission, and three decisions. He’s coming off his first early loss, which ended in a second round submission, with his one other loss going the distance. His six submission wins have been split evenly across the first two rounds. He fought his first four pro fights at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in February 2020 where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Leavitt is a former high-school wrestler and one-dimensional grappler, but has at least been trying to improve his striking and landed a ton of leg kicks in his last win. However, he still hasn’t shown any sort of boxing skills and doesn’t look very dangerous on the feet at all. Leavitt also hasn’t shown that he can outgrapple other grapplers, but has excelled when facing strikers. Between his five UFC fights and DWCS appearance, he’s landed 8 takedowns on 28 attempts (28.6% accuracy). It will be interesting to see how Leavitt responds to the first early loss of his career, but we expect him to try and take the path of least resistance to avoid a two fight skid.
Fight Prediction:
Leavitt will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is four years younger than the 31-year-old Martinez.
It’s somewhat surprising that the UFC went from giving Leavitt Paddy Pimblett to a UFC newcomer and even more surprising that Leavitt opened as a slight underdog in said matchup. However, the market corrected and Leavitt is now a slight favorite. We’ve seen Martinez struggle with being taken down and he’s been submitted twice in the past, despite claiming to be a BJJ black belt. Leavitt keeps claiming he’s going to showcase his improved boxing, but we don’t believe him. Look for him to rely on his wrestling, as he has a major wrestling advantage in this matchup but will be at a disadvantage in the striking exchanges. While it’s possible Leavitt just grinds out a decision win on the mat, we like his chances of finding a submission in the first two rounds, most likely in round one.
Our favorite bet here is Leavitt’s ML at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Martinez looks like a high-volume striker on paper, but his stats are skewed by his recent DWCS decision win against an opponent who fought the second half of the right with a broken arm. Now he’ll be facing a wrestler who will be looking to tie him up and take him down and we’d be surprised to see Martinez land a high number of strikes here. That leaves him reliant on becoming the first fighter to ever knock Leavitt out to score well and we haven’t been very impressed by Martinez so it would be surprising to see him do that. He’s making his UFC debut following an extended 17 month layoff, so he may have some ring rust to deal with in addition to the Octagon jitters of making his debut. That’s far from ideal in a situation where he’ll likely already have limited opportunities to land strikes before he gets taken down. After opening as a slight favorite, the line has flipped in Leavitt’s favor, which will reduce Martinez’s ownership. That’s about all he has going for him and he looks like a KO or bust option who likely gets submitted. The odds imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Leavitt predictably struggled and got finished by Paddy Pimblett in his last fight, but now faces a step down in competition against a debuting opponent. While Martinez claims to be a BJJ black belt, nothing we’ve seen from him supports that, and this looks like a good spot for Leavitt to find success wrestling and likely land a submission. However, even when he lands a finish he hasn’t always scored particularly well, as he only put up 86 DraftKings points in his last submission victory. He then scored just 78 points in his lone UFC decision win. He was able to score 120 points in his debut, but that was only because of the Quick Win Bonus after he knocked out Matt Wiman 22 seconds in when he slammed him on his head. Leavitt only averages 2.43 SSL/min, so to really score well he’ll need another well timed finish and/or to be more active than we’ve seen in the past. His cheaper price tag does make it easier for him to crack winning lineups, but the line flipping in his favor will also drive up his ownership some. The odds imply he has a 51% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Gabriella Fernandes
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut following a second round submission win for the LFA interim Flyweight belt, Fernandes has won seven straight and finished her last two opponents in the second round. She picked her last opponent apart on the feet for a round and a half before dropping her midway through round two and then jumping on a guillotine to finish the fight. Just prior to that she landed a second round TKO from body shots. Fernandes has a history of landing late finishes, with four of her last six wins coming early, including three in round two and one in round three. The only first round finish of her career came in her 2018 pro debut when she landed a R1 TKO against Iasmin Lucindo, who’s now in the UFC.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Fernandes has three wins by KO/TKO, two by submission. Her only career loss was a 2018 split decision in her second pro fight against an opponent who started her career 8-0 before recently losing a decision on DWCS. Fernandes started her career at 115 lb before taking a fight all the way up at 135 lb in 2019. She then dropped down to 125 lb, where she’s pretty much stayed other than a quick trip back up to 135 lb in 2021. She’s 4-0 at 125 lb, with three of those wins coming early, all in the second round.
Overall, Fernandes is a solid striker who’s competed in taekwondo, jiu jitsu, and surfing. She teaches both boxing and surfing on the side and is an all around good athlete who looks really strong. She mixes in her kicks and boxing well and also has some submission skills on the mat. We haven’t seen much wrestling in her recent fights, so it’s hard to evaluate her there, but we should have those questions answered on Saturday as she makes her debut.
Jasmine Jasudavicius
3rd UFC Fight (0-0)Jasudavicius had been scheduled to face Cortney Casey here, but Casey dropped out and Fernandes stepped in a month out. Looking to bounce back from a decision loss, Jasudavicius was defeated by a debuting Natalia Silva. Jasudavicius failed to land any of her six takedowns in the fight and got dominated on the fight as Silva outlanded her 96-31 in significant strikes and 120-40 in total strikes. Silva was also able to take Jasudavicius down twice as she won every round and completely outclassed Jasudavicius. Prior to that, Jasudavicius won a decision over Kay Hansen, who was fighting up at 125 lb for the first and only time in the UFC and was in the midst of a three fight before being cut by the UFC. Jasudavicius made her way into the UFC with a strong wrestling performance on DWCS as she landed four takedowns on seven attempts with over eight minutes of control time in a decision win.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Jasudavicius has two wins by KO, one by submission, and four decisions. Both of her losses have gone the distance, with one of those coming in a questionable split decision against Elise Reed in a 2020 four-round Cage Fury FC Strawweight Championship fight before they both joined the UFC. Jasudavicius only turned pro in 2019 and was very late coming into MMA as she’s already 33 years old. Her loss to Reed came at 115 lb, while almost all of her other fights have been at 125 lb, with the one exception being a 2020 122 lb Catchweight match. Her only career submission win was in her 2019 pro debut against an opponent who had never fought professionally before, while her two TKO wins both came by knees in the first round of her third and fourth pro fights. Her last five fights have all gone the distance.
Overall, Jasudavicius has relied almost entirely on her wrestling up to this point in her career, which caught up to her in her last fight where she got exposed on the feet when she was unable to get the fight to the mat. She generally looks for ground and pound on the mat, opposed to really hunting for submissions, although she’s never actually finished anyone with ground strikes. While she didn’t get into MMA until later on in her life, she does have a freestyle wrestling background and is a BJJ purple belt. Jasudavicius desperately needs to improve her striking as she’s not a dominant enough wrestler to be as one-dimensional as she is. It sounds like she’s at least putting the work in, but the proof will be in the pudding come Saturday.
Fight Prediction:
Jasudavicius will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. Fernandes is four years younger than the 33-year-old Jasudavicius.
Jasudavicius just lost to a debuting Brazilian fighter and now faces another one, so we’ll see if this goes any better for her. Fernandes is lightyears ahead of Jasudavicius when it comes to striking and this fight will not go well for Jasudavicius if it remains standing. While Fernandes has shown some submission skills, her wrestling ability and takedown defense remain largely unknown, which adds a lot of uncertainty to this matchup. The only way we see Jasudavicius winning this fight is if she can take Fernandes down and control her for extended periods of time. Fernandes has the ability to finish Jasudavicius, although no one ever has and this is the most likely fight on the card to go the distance according to the oddsmakers. Jasudavicius’ takedown accuracy and striking looked so horrendous in her last match that we can’t back her here, despite the fact that she’s taking on a UFC newcomer. Fernandes has looked really strong and we’d be surprised if Jasudavicius was simply able to bully her down to the mat over and over again. However, Jasudavicius’ desire to grapple should slow this fight down and make it tougher for Fernandes to find a finish. Therefore, we’re predicting that Fernandes wins by decision, just keep in mind she’s capable of landing a knockout or submission—or even losing a decision if her wrestling defense doesn’t hold up—so we’re not overly excited about betting her decision line.
Our favorite bet here is Fernandes’ ML at -125.
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DFS Implications:
Fernandes is making her UFC debut on a seven fight winning streak with four of those ending early. That presents some scoring upside for her, however, now she’s going against a wrestler who’s never been finished. That means this has the potential to spend extended periods of time in the clinch along the fence or with Fernandes’ back on the mat, which lowers her scoring potential. Fernandes rarely looks for takedowns, which leaves her reliant on striking volume and finishes to score well. We don’t see her landing enough volume to score well in a decision, which means she’ll need to be the first fighter to ever finish Jasudavicius to return value. While that’s not impossible and Fernandes has finished her last two opponents, the oddsmakers have set this fight as the most likely on the card to go the distance, which isn’t encouraging for Fernandes’ chances of finding a finish. The odds imply Fernandes has a 53% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Jasudavicius is a one-dimensional wrestler who got dominated in a decision loss against a debuting Brazilian fighter in her last match. Jasudavicius went 0 for 6 on her takedown attempts in that fight and looked lost on the feet. Prior to that she won a decision against a struggling and undersized Kay Hansen, but still only scored 86 DraftKings points and 62 points on FanDuel. That confirms our belief that Jasudavicius is only really in play on DraftKings and needs a finish to be useful on FanDuel. And even on DraftKings she needs a completely dominant wrestling performance to really score well. Her only realistic path to victory is grinding out a decision on the mat and serving as a DraftKings specific value play. The odds imply she has a 47% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Trevor Peek
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a second round TKO win on DWCS, Peek had originally been scheduled to face a 36-year-old Alex Reyes here, who hasn’t competed since September 2017 when he got knocked out by Mike Perry in the first round of his UFC debut. Erick Gonzalez’s opponent on this card also dropped out, so it made sense to rebook them against one another, which was finalized 11 days before the event. Peek has knocked out all seven of his pro opponents, and just a month before going on DWCS he knocked out a fragile Khama Worthy in the first round. Peek had to fight through some early adversity in his last match, as he nearly got finished in the first round. However, he was narrowly able to survive an early assault and outlast his opponent to find a ground and pound second round TKO.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Peek has five first round KO/TKO wins and two in round two. He’s only been in one fight that lasted longer than eight minutes and two seconds. Only four of his seven wins came against opponents with winning records, and he hasn’t faced the toughest of competition. Peek has fought between 155 lb and 180 lb in his career and his upcoming UFC debut will only be his fourth fight at 155 lb.
Overall, Peek is an aggressive brawler who comes into every fight looking to knock opponents out, whether it be on the feet or through ground and pound on the mat. He will look for takedowns, but he hasn’t shown any sort of submission game and is just looking to beat opponents up where the fight goes. In his last fight, he showed the ability to get rocked and recover, but other than that he’s never really faced any adversity in his career, which has taken place exclusively on the Alabama and Tennessee regional scenes. While some may point to the Khama Worthy victory as a notable win on his record, just keep in mind Worthy has been knocked out nine times in his career and has four R1 KO losses just in his last seven fights. Considering the longest fight of Peek’s career ended midway through the second round, his cardio still remains somewhat of a question mark, but he certainly doesn’t pace himself for 15 minutes. In recent interviews Peek talked about having an adrenaline dump going into his DWCS match and just not feeling right the day of the event or during the match. He also talked about how much harder it was to fight without having his usual home crowd behind him that he was accustomed to from all of his regional matches. Now he’ll be making his debut in that same venue at the Apex.
Erick Gonzalez
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Gonzalez had been scheduled to face Darrius Flowers here, but Flowers dropped out and Gonzalez was rebooked against Peek. Gonzalez is still in search of his first UFC win, after getting knocked out by Jim Miller early in the second round of his UFC debut and then most recently submitted by Terrance McKinney in just 137 seconds. Gonzalez also has a pair of 2019 decision losses to current UFC fighter Rafa Garcia and former UFC fighter Humberto Bandenay on his record, so he’s consistently come up short when facing UFC caliber opponents.
Now 14-7 as a pro, Gonzalez has eight wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. He has five first round finishes, two in round two, and two in round three, but four of his last six finishes have occurred in the later rounds. He’s been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has three decision losses. All three of his submission losses occurred in round one, while his KO loss came in the opening seconds of round two.
Overall, Gonzalez is a pretty wild and sloppy fighter, but that also makes him unpredictable. While he often looks to get fights to the ground, he’s not much of a submission threat and is instead looking to throw elbows and finish fights with ground and pound. Despite his aggressive fighting style, Gonzalez only has one finish in his last eight fights, which was a 2021 R3 TKO against Oziel Rodriguez Lopez, who’s just 4-6 as a pro. In his two UFC fights, Gonzalez has landed one takedown on three attempts (33.3% accuracy), while he’s been taken down twice on three opponent attempts (33.3% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Gonzalez will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
Both of these two are sloppy brawlers who come in looking to knock opponents out and land ground and pound on the mat. Gonzalez is the longer fighter, but Peek looks like the more powerful of the two. The main advantage Gonzalez has is experience. Not only does he already have two UFC fights against dangerous opponents under his belt, he has three times as many pro fights as Peek. Gonzalez turned pro in early 2015, while Peek only turned pro in late 2020. Gonzalez is also desperate for a win if he wants to stick around the UFC much longer, but the chances of him making it to a second UFC contract are low. We’re expecting this to be a wild brawl and when you combine that with Peek making his debut and already admitting to struggling to perform his best the last time he fought at the Apex, this looks like a volatile spot to predict. However, if Peek can avoid another adrenaline dump and show up ready to fight, we like his chances of knocking Gonzalez out in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “Peek KO” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Peek’s aggressive fighting style and 100% finishing rate looks perfectly suited for DFS production. All seven of his pro wins have come by KO/TKO in the first two rounds, with five ending in round one. He’s constantly looking to land bombs and/or take his opponents down and beat them up with ground and pound. Just keep in mind, he only turned pro in 2020 and trains at a smaller gym with limited experienced training partners. He’s spent his entire career fighting on the Alabama and Tennessee regional scenes, and struggled early in his DWSC match, noting that he suffered an adrenaline dump and wasn’t used to fighting without his home crowd cheering him on. Perhaps that was the learning moment he needed to take the next step, or maybe he’ll once again struggle to be at his best, only time will tell. The fact that his longest career fight only lasted eight minutes also leaves some questions surrounding his cardio, and he certainly doesn’t fight at a pace that appears sustainable over the course of three rounds. Despite all of the question marks surrounding him, he has clear knockout power and the drive to look for finishes every time he steps inside the Octagon. He also gets a favorable matchup in his debut against an opponent who’s been finished in both of his UFC fights and got completely starched by Jim Miller. That leaves Peek with a solid ceiling, but an uncertain floor, and makes him a solid tournament play but a tougher guy to trust in low-risk contests. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 56% chance to land a finish, and a 38% chance it comes in round one.
Gonzalez hasn’t done anything to impress us and has been finished in both of his UFC fights in under six minutes, albeit in two really tough matchups. However, his aggressive fighting style does present some scoring upside if he can ever win another fight and now he’ll face an aggressive UFC newcomer who will be looking to push the pace. Gonzalez will mix in takedowns in addition to throwing down on the feet, making it hard for him to bust if he pulls off the upset, especially when you factor in his cheap price tag. While Gonzalez most likely gets knocked out here, this sets up as a volatile spot with two brawlers and whoever wins should score well. When you factor in Gonzalez’s low ownership and price tag, that makes him an interesting tournament play and just hope for chaos. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Mike Malott
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Malott is 10 months removed from his UFC debut where he landed a first round knockout against Mickey Gall. Malott got taken down once in the fight, but immediately returned to his feet before face planting Gall with a left hook later in the round. Prior to that win, Malott landed a 39 second first round submission win on DWCS in October 2021. Malott has only been past the first round once in his nine fight career, which ended in a draw in a 2015 Bellator fight. Since that 2015 draw, Malott has only competed four times in 7+ years, with none of those fights making it past the four minute mark and three ending in 102 seconds or less.
Now 8-1-1 as a pro, Malott has four wins by KO/TKO and four by submission, with all eight of those finishes ending in the first round. His lone career loss also came in the first round, in a 2014 knockout against UFC fighter Hakeem Dawodu. Malot turned pro in 2011 when he was just 19 years old and started out at 145 lb. He went back and forth between 145 lb and 155 lb early on in his career, but as he continued to grow into his frame making that weight became more and more of a challenge. He then stepped away from MMA for a few years following a 2017 fight and focussed more on his grappling, where he earned a BJJ black belt and had ADCC aspirations. He said his passion to fight in MMA just wasn’t there anymore at the time, but he took a position as a striking coach at Team Alpha Male so he was still involved in the sport and cornered several fighters. He said during his time away that his passion for fighting returned and he finally began competing again in 2020, although at that point he had added a good amount of muscle and moved up to 170 lb.
Overall, Malott is a dangerous striker and an opportunistic submission threat. He didn’t attempt any takedowns in his UFC debut or his last two fights on the regional scene, but did win a decision in a 185 lb grappling match against Trevin Giles this past December, so he continues to work on his grappling. Despite his connection with Team Alpha Male, Malott has stayed at home in Ontario Canada to prepare for this fight, which is also where he did most of his preparation for his recent debut. Considering Malott has only been out of the first round once in his career, which was all the way back in 2015 and ended in a draw, his cardio remains a mystery. After facing a grappler in his debut, it will be interesting to see how Malott looks against a fellow striker.
Yohan Lainesse
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off a lackluster split-decision win over Darian Weeks, we saw a huge overcorrection from Lainesse in terms of aggressiveness after he gassed out and got finished by Gabe Green late in the second round of his UFC debut. Lainesse spent much of the fight circling away from contact and after landing 25 significant strikes in just the first round of his UFC debut, Lainesse only landed 23 significant strikes over the course of three rounds in his last fight. Despite getting outlanded 44-23 in significant strikes and taken down once, two of the three judges scored the fight for Lainesse, including the third round where Lainesse finished behind in significant strikes 12-5, in total strikes 14-6, and in control time 0:48-0:17. It was an absolutely terrible fight overall.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Lainesse has six wins by KO and three decisions, to go along with his lone TKO loss. All six of his career KO/TKO wins ended in a round and a half or less, including five in round one. While Lainesse doesn’t have any submission wins on his record, he will look to lock up guillotine chokes. Most of his career has been spent at 170 lb, but he has competed at 185 lb once and another time at a 180 lb Catchweight. He said he used to get up to 215 lb and weighed close to 250 lb when he was younger, but now walks around at 195 lb and has been trying to improve his diet and cardio.
Overall, Lainesse is a powerful striker who seems to be in the process of reinventing himself at the UFC level, which is always a dangerous game to play. He came into the UFC as an aggressive brawler with a 7-8 minute gas tank, who would also occasionally mix in takedowns. Now he’s training at Tristar and they appear to be trying to slow him down and pace his cardio for three rounds. Lainesse did say in a recent interview that he’s aware his last fight was boring and he’ll be looking to put on better shows in the future, but we’ll let his actions speak for themselves inside the Octagon. While Lainesse was never a good fighter, at least he used to be exciting. Now he’s bad and boring. Thanks Tristar.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’1” but Lainesse will have a 3” reach advantage.
As the only two Canadian Welterweights on the roster, these two know each other and have said they’re friends who have briefly sparred with each other in the past. Both of them are known for finishing opponents early, but Lainesse’s passive approach to his last fight has us seriously questioning what his game plan will be moving forward. He made it sound like he’s somewhat aware that he overcorrected in terms of dialing back his aggressiveness, so it will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes here. However, if he approaches the fight even somewhat similarly then there’s a good chance this fight also ends in a disappointing decision. Despite these two being listed at the same height, Lainesse has fought as high as 185 lb in the past, while Malott started his career all the way down at 145 lb. It would be surprising if Malott cuts nearly as much weight as Lainesse, who should be the bigger fighter in there. That may translate to a power advantage, but it could come at the cost of cardio. However, considering Malott has only been out of the first round once in his career, his cardio remains a mystery, so it’s hard to rely on him weaponizing it.
The outcome in this matchup will likely hinge on how aggressive Lainesse is. If he fights the way he did the last time we saw him, look for this to end in a disappointing decision that could go either way. However, if he reverts back to his more aggressive past self then we would expect someone to get knocked out. And in that scenario, while Lainesse is the larger, more powerful fighter, Malott is the more technical of the two and we would give him the advantage in finding a finish. Without knowing what Lainesse’s approach will be, it’s hard to make a definitive prediction, but considering he got knocked out in his debut when he fought aggressively and then was rewarded with a decision win when he fought like a loser, we’d be surprised if he strayed too far away from his last game plan. We hope we’re wrong, because this fight has the potential to be a banger if we get two willing participants, but we’ll say Lainesse ruins another one and this ends in a coin flip decision. In a straight pick ‘em we’ll give the advantage to Malott, but the longer odds on Lainesse’s side of things are somewhat appealing in terms of betting.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +240.
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DFS Implications:
Malott has only been out of the first round once in his career, which ended in a 2015 draw, as all eight of his wins and his lone loss came in under five minutes. That trend continued in his debut as he knocked out Mickey Gall in round one, just keep in mind Gall is terrible and got cut following what was his third loss in his last four fights. Malott will not face a more dangerous striker, so he’ll need to remain defensively sound on the feet. It will be interesting to see if Malott looks to grapple more than he has recently, as she should have the advantage on the mat. That would be one way he could still score well with a later round finish, but despite being a BJJ black belt, he’s looked like more of an opportunistic submission threat than a wrestler and hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his last three fights. At his high price tag, that likely leaves him reliant on landing a first round finish to return value, which makes it easy to determine a proper amount of exposure in DFS. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.
Lainesse came into the UFC as an aggressive brawler, looking to end fights with every punch he threw. However, after gassing out and getting finished in the second round of his debut, he retreated into his shell in his last fight as we saw a complete snoozer with him circling the outside of the Octagon for 15 minutes and only landing 23 total significant strikes, while also failing to land either of his two takedown attempts. We see aggressive finishers try to reinvent themselves at the UFC level a decent amount and it rarely goes well. Whether or not Lainesse is destined for a similar fate remains to be seen, but we’ll be lower on him until he shows a willingness to engage and take risks. Perhaps we’re allowing recency bias to play too much of a role here, but we don’t trust the team at Tristar to suddenly tell him to swing for the fences after his recent passive approach paid off with a split-decision win. Based on his finishing ability, we understand having some exposure, but this fight has a real shot at busting if it makes it out of the first round. Lainesse scored just 40 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, and even at his cheaper price tag it looks like he’ll need a finish to be useful. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Tatiana Suarez
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Making her long awaited comeback after nearly four years away, Suarez was initially sidelined due to a bulging disk in her neck, but then just as she was set to return in 2021 she completely shredded her knee. She’s now finally recovered from the pair of injuries and ready to resume her career. However, she’s easing her way back to 115 lb with a tune up fight at 125 lb. She said she won’t really be cutting any weight for this match, so we’ll see what effect that has. Suarez’s last win was a June 2019 decision against Nina Nunes, after finishing Carla Esparza via TKO in the third round of a 2018 match. Suarez made her UFC debut in 2016 and submitted Amanda Bobby Brundage in the first round. She then won a decision over Viviane Pereira, before submitting Alexa Grasso in the first round, leading up to her fight against Esparza.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Suarez has two TKO victories, three by submission, and three decision wins. Both of her TKO victories have occurred in the later rounds, while all three of her submission wins have ended in round one. Three of her last four fights made it to the third round, with two of those going the distance.
Overall, Suarez grew up wrestling and won two bronze medals at the world championships in freestyle wrestling. She planned on going to the 2012 olympics, but that’s when her neck problems began and she was also diagnosed with cancer. After beating cancer, she shifted her sights to MMA, turning pro in 2014. She then made her way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter (the year before De La Rosa went on the show), ultimately winning the competition at 115 lb. Suarez relies on her wrestling background to dominate opponents on the mat. In her five UFC fights, she’s landed 22 takedowns on 35 attempts (62.9% accuracy), with at least two takedowns in all of those matches and four or more in the three that made it out of the first round. No one has ever gotten her down, although the only opponent to try was Esparza, who failed to land either of her two attempts.
Montana De La Rosa
10th UFC Fight (5-3-1)Looking to bounce back from an April 2022 decision loss to Maycee Barber, De La Rosa has only competed once in the last 20 months. She’s just 1-2-1 in her last four fights, with her lone win over that stretch coming in a R2 TKO over Ariane Lipski. It’s been three years since De La Rosa’s second most recent victory, which ended in a decision against Mara Romero Borella. De La Rosa submitted her first three opponents in the UFC, but all of those finishes came against very low-level opponents. She then lost a decision to Andrea Lee, won a decision over Mara Romero Borella, lost a decision to Viviane Araujo, and fought Mayra Bueno Silva to a draw (with the help of a point deduction), leading up to her win over Lipski.
Now 12-7-1 as a pro, De La Rosa has one win by TKO (R2 2021), eight by submission, and three decision victories. Seven of her nine finishes have come in the later rounds, with four of those ending in round two and three in round three. Her lone KO/TKO loss came in the third round of a 2017 LFA fight against Cynthia Calvillo, while her lone submission loss was just before that in the first round of a 2016 match against Mackenzie Dern. Both of those fights notably took place at 115 lb, before De La Rosa moved back up to 125 lb when she went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2017, and has stayed since. Her other five losses have all ended in decisions.
Overall, De La Rosa started out as a pure grappler/wrestler but has been steadily improving her striking over the years. However, she doesn’t land a ton of striking volume and averages just 2.60 SSL/min. She’s only landed more than 56 significant strikes in one of her nine UFC fights. In her nine UFC fights, she’s landed 15 takedowns on 47 attempts (31.9% accuracy), with at least one takedown landed in seven straight fights. On the other side of things, she’s been taken down four times on 11 opponent attempts (63.6% defense), but no one has ever gotten her down more than once in a fight. She hasn’t submitted anybody since her third UFC match back in 2019 and all of her UFC submission wins came against low level talents. De La Rosa did her whole camp at genesis MMA for this fight, opposed to going to a big camp in colorado like she normally does. She said the perfect fight for her here would be to keep the fight standing and stick and move the whole time.
Fight Prediction:
De La Rosa will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is four years younger than the 32-year-old Suarez.
Obviously there are several unknowns in play here as Suarez makes her return to the Octagon after nearly four years away and is coming back from serious neck and knee injuries while also fighting up a weight class. However, the UFC wasn’t oblivious to those factors and gave Suarez a tune up fight in her first match back. We just saw Maycee barber outwrestle De La Rosa, and while De La Rosa has improved her striking over the years, she’s still not a threat to finish fights on the feet. De La Rosa said she wants to keep the fight standing and stick and move for three rounds, but we don’t see her being able to do that. Suarez’s relentless wrestling will be too much for De La Rosa, who’s only hope will be to throw up a hail mary armbar, which we don’t see happening. The only question we have is whether Suarez will be able to finish De La Rosa or if this will end in a dominant decision victory. Both are squarely in play, making it a tricky spot to bet. Given De La Rosa’s plan of running away and the potential for ring rust and reduced cardio from Suarez, a finish appears slightly less likely, and we’ll say Suarez gets her hand raised in a smothering decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Suarez DEC” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Suarez has never lost a fight and dominates everyone she faces on the mat, but her current form remains a mystery as she hasn’t competed in nearly four years and is coming off two major injuries. She’s also making her return up a weight class at 125 lb, opposed to 115 lb where she normally competes. With all that said, if she can recapture her past form, she has a massive scoring ceiling and floor in DFS. In her five UFC wins, she has averaged 119 DraftKings points, scoring at least 99 points in all of those, with three scores of 115 or more. She put up an earth shattering 157 points on DraftKings and 153 points on FanDuel in her second most recent win and has shown the ability to put up huge scores with or without a finish. However, her most recent victory scored “just” 99 DraftKings points and 89 points on FanDuel, showing that she is at least capable of putting up less insane scores. We expect her to be very popular based on her scoring history, but it’s been so long since she last competed we don’t have any historical ownership data to look at. She’s a safer play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but has a solid floor and a massive ceiling on both sites. The odds imply she has an 85% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
De La Rosa is reliant on her wrestling to win fights, which makes this the toughest matchup she could ask for, as she faces an elite wrestler who’s never been taken down. While De La Rosa has said she wants to keep the fight standing and just stick and move to outland her way to a low-volume decision, even if effective that strategy won’t score well in DFS. And considering we don’t see her winning the wrestling exchanges, her only hope of scoring well will be to throw up a hail mary submission off her back. There’s always a chance Suarez looks dramatically worse following all the injuries and time away, but we’d be surprised if she looked so bad that De La Rosa was able to defeat her. De La Rosa will be very low owned in tournaments, so if she does win and somehow score well she has tournament winning upside, but her chances are incredibly slim. The odds imply she has a 15% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Augusto Sakai
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Continuing to get knocked out every time he steps inside the Octagon, the UFC has put Sakai through the ringer as they matched him up with Alistair Overeem, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Tai Tuivasa, and Sergey Spivak in his last four fights. The poor guy looks like he has PTSD at this point, so they’re throwing him a bone and giving him a massive step down in competition here. After making it to the fifth round against Overeem and winning the first two rounds in that fight, Sakai got knocked out in the final second of round one by Rozenstruik, and then 26 seconds into round two by Tuivasa. Spivac then ragdolled him for a round and half before finishing him with ground and pound in round two.
Now 15-5-1 as a pro, Sakai has 11 wins by KO and four decisions. He’s been knocked out four times and has one decision defeat. Despite 11 of his 15 career wins coming early, Sakai has just two first round finishes in his last 17 matches and just one since joining the UFC. He did start his pro career off with four straight first round knockouts in 2011 and 2012, but those came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-1, 0-0 and 2-4. Since then, he’s knocked out seven more opponents—two in R1, three in R2 and two in R3. Two of his last three wins have notably ended in split-decisions and six of his eight UFC fights have made it to the second round, with four seeing a third round, and two going the distance.
Overall, Sakai is an average talent Heavyweight who discovered his limitations once he began facing tougher competition. He averages 4.73 SSL/min, but has only landed one takedown on just three attempts in his UFC career and none in his last seven fights. He is a BJJ brown belt, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at his ground game and he’s looked pretty helpless off his back. Between his eight UFC fights and DWCS appearance, he’s been taken down 11 times on 22 attempts, with the majority of those coming in his last fight when Serghei Spivac took him down six times on eight attempts. In addition to being just an average talent, Sakai’s confidence appears at an all time low, which is understandable considering the streak he’s on. He’s been fighting not to lose lately, and still getting finished every time he steps inside the Octagon. He did switch camps to American Top Team for his last fight, but he didn’t get to show anything in the fight as he was defending takedowns (poorly) the entire time.
Don'Tale Mayes
6th UFC Fight (2-2, NC)Mayes is coming off a split-decision loss to a low-level short notice replacement who was making his UFC debut, although the defeat was later overturned to a No Contest when Hamdy Abdelwahab tested positive for PEDs. Hamdy was able to knock Mayes down in the first round, take him down three times, and control him for six and a half minutes while also outlanding him 58-47 in significant strikes. It was a terrible showing by Mayes, who was coming off his first early win in the UFC in a third round TKO victory over another low-level Heavyweight in Josh Parisian. Prior to that, he won a decision over Roque Martinez who went 0-3 in the UFC before being cut. Mayes was a regular on DWCS as he made appearances in 2017, 2018 and 2019. After getting knocked out in the third round of his first appearance, he notched R2 and R1 KO victories in his most recent two trips on DWCS in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Mayes then got his shot in the UFC in 2019 in a brutally tough matchup against Ciryl Gane and after nearly getting finished in the first round he was later submitted in round three. Mayes also came close to getting finished in the first round of his next fight against Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira, but managed to survive to see a second round where he was then submitted.
Still 9-4 as a pro since his last loss was overturned to a No Contest, Mayes has five wins by KO, one by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one DQ loss. He’s seen the second round in all five of his UFC fights, with four of those making it to round three, but only two going the distance. And looking back further, only one of Mayes’ last 11 fights ended in round one. That can likely be explained by the fact that he’s terrible, but huge.
Overall, Mayes is a big Heavyweight who appears athletically gifted but still very green when it comes to MMA. He showed improvements to his wrestling against Parisian, but it’s hard to tell how much of that was simply due to Parisian being terrible off his back. Between his five UFC fights and three DWCS appearances, Mayes has landed 7 takedowns on 13 attempts (53.8% accuracy), but the majority of that work came against Parisian, who Mayes took down six times on eight attempts. Mayes landed just one takedown on only five attempts against the other seven opponents. He also averages just 3.65 SSL/min and doesn’t have a ton of power for a Heavyweight.
Fight Prediction:
Mayes will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
This has to be Sakai’s last chance to save his job considering he’s been knocked out in four straight fights, right? Maybe the Heavyweight division is just so thin they can’t afford to cut anyone, but at some point you have to cut bate. With that said, this is a massive step down in competition for Sakai and if he has any fight left in him he should win this match. Sakai has wins over Andrei Arlovski, Marcin Tybura, and Blagoy Ivanov on his record, all of which are much tougher fights than this next one. However, we don’t know where Sakai is at mentally these days and it’s hard to watch any of his recent fights and have much confidence in him. He’s struggled on his back and if Mayes is able to take him down he could be in trouble. However, Mayes is so bad that we’ll give Sakai the benefit of the doubt and say he outstrikes his way to victory, most likely in a decision win.
Our favorite bet here is Sakai’s ML at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Sakai is a KO or bust DFS option who averaged 115 DraftKings points in his two early UFC victories, but just 60 points in his two decision wins. He’s only landed one takedown in eight UFC fights, which came in his debut, and doesn’t land enough volume to score well without a finish. Mayes has only been knocked out once in his career, but got dropped in the first round of his last fight against a terrible opponent, so anything is possible here. However, Sakai has looked so tentative over his current four-fight losing streak that it’s hard to have much confidence in him. However, someone has to win here and the odds imply the fight has a 63% chance to end early. His recent struggles should keep his ownership down, which also adds to his tournament appeal. The odds imply Sakai has a 55% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Mayes has exactly one good performance in the UFC, which came against a low-level opponent in Josh Parisian, where Mayes suddenly turned into a wrestler and scored 124 DraftKings points in a third round TKO win. Mayes failed to top 67 DraftKings points in his other four UFC fights and isn’t a very good striker. He only averages 3.65 SSL/min and only has the one finish since 2019. He’ll either need another finish here or a dominant wrestling performance to score well, and if this fight remains on the feet and goes the distance, no one will score well. While we certainly can’t trust Mayes, Sakai has looked terrible lately, albeit against the other end of the spectrum in terms of competition. If Sakai’s confidence is completely shattered, then maybe Mayes can finish him, but that’s hard to know going in. This will be a step up in competition for Mayes compared to the last four opponents he faced and we could see it going a lot of different ways. That volatility makes it tough to take a hard stand, but fortunately neither guy projects to be all that popular, so we don’t really have to. The odds imply Mayes has a 45% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Andre Muniz
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Muniz has won nine straight fights, with all nine of those ending in either first round submissions (6) or decisions (3). He made his UFC debut in 2019 and won a decision over Antonio Arroyo, before rattling off three straight first round armbar submission wins. Two of those were against UFC veterans who had never been submitted before in Jacare Souza and Eryk Anders. Following the string of quick wins, Muniz won a decision over Uriah Hall in his last match. Despite taking Hall down four times on 10 attempts and controlling him for over 10 minutes, Muniz was unable to become the first fighter to ever submit the veteran. Muniz made his way into the UFC through DWCS, but it took him two tries after he failed to secure a contract with a 2018 decision win in his first appearance on the show. He righted that wrong with a first round submission win when he went back on the show.
Now 23-4 as a pro, Muniz has four wins by KO, 15 by submission, and four decisions. Fifteen of Muniz’s 19 finishes have come in round one, three ended in round two, and one occurred in round three. However, 14 of his last 15 early wins have ended in the first round, with the one exception being a 2015 second round arm-triangle choke. He’s been knocked out in all four of his losses, but three of those occurred early on in his career from 2011 to 2013. Muniz’s only loss in his last 18 fights came up at 205 lb in a 2016 R1 KO against undefeated Azamat Murzakanov, who’s since joined the UFC. Most of Muniz’s career has been spent at 185 lb, but he did have a stretch from 2015 to 2017 where he moved up to 205 lb.
Overall, Muniz is one of the most dangerous grapplers on the planet, but doesn’t offer much in terms of striking. He’s only landed 58 total significant strikes in his five UFC fights, and failed to top 22 in either of his two decision wins. He’ll look to get fights to the ground by whatever means necessary, including pulling guard if he has to. Between his five UFC fights and two DWCS appearances, he’s landed 14 of his 35 takedown attempts (40% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents six times on 11 attempts (45.5% defense).
Brendan Allen
11th UFC Fight (8-2)Entering this matchup on a three fight winning streak, Allen is fresh off a first round submission win over Krzysztof Jotko, who had just won decisions over other grapplers in Gerald Meerschaert and Misha Cirkunov and has historically been a really tough guy to take down and submit. Just before that Allen won a close/questionable decision over Jacob Malkoun, who took Allen down 7 times on 14 attempts and controlled him for over seven minutes. That occurred just after Allen submitted Sam Alvey in the second round. Allen’s only loss in his last six fights came in a December 2021 R2 KO against Christ Curtis, who took the fight on short notice. Allen’s only other UFC loss also ended in a second round knockout, which came at the hands of Curtis’ teammate Sean Strickland in November 2020. Allen has mostly fought strikers throughout his UFC career, and the only grapplers he’s gone up against were Kyle Daukaus and Jacob Malkoun, both of which Allen defeated in close decisions.
Now 20-5 as a pro, Allen has five wins by KO, 11 submissions, and four decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, both times in the second round, and submitted once, which occurred in his third pro fight against Trevin Giles back in 2016. He also has two five-round LFA decision losses to Anthony Hernandez and Eryk Anders. So all five of his career losses have come against current UFC fighters, but three of those occurred before he joined the UFC. Seven of his 10 UFC fights have ended early (5-2), while he’s won all three of the decisions he’s been to with the organization. Four of his UFC finishes ended in submissions, while he also had a ground and pound TKO victory over Tom Breese in his second UFC appearance. He’s yet to knock anyone out on the feet.
Overall, Allen is a BJJ black belt and is most dangerous on the mat, but he’s shown a low fight IQ at multiple points in the past and often fails to take the path of least resistance. He’s a fairly patient striker on the feet, averaging 3.99 SSL/min, and has only landed three total takedowns in his last five fights. In his 10 UFC appearances, he’s landed 8 of his 18 takedown attempts (44.4%), while he’s been taken down by his opponents 12 times on 24 attempts (50%).
Fight Prediction:
Allen will have a 1” height advantage but Muniz will have a 3” reach advantage. Allen is six years younger than the 33-year-old Muniz.
This is an interesting matchup between two grapplers, but Allen would have to be even stupider than he looks to willingly go to the ground with Muniz. Allen will have a major striking advantage and should be trying to keep the fight standing at all costs. However, we’ve often seen strategy take a backseat to ego with Allen, so you never know what he’s going to do. It’s also possible he won’t have a say in the matter as he only has a 50% takedown defense and Muniz will unquestionably be looking to take him down early and often. The only real submission threat that Allen has faced in the UFC was Kyle Daukaus, who was able to take Allen down three times on five attempts and control him for nearly eight minutes—although Allen still went on to win a decision. Prior to joining the UFC, Allen also lost a five-round decision to another grappler in Anthony Hernandez and got submitted by Trevin Giles back in 2016. He also arguably lost a decision to a wrestler in Jacob Malkoun in his second most recent fight, although the judges disagreed, but we’ve seen Allen struggle when facing grapplers in the past. However, he’s also just 27 years old and should still be improving, so we don’t want to get too hung up on the past.
It would make sense for Allen to approach this fight cautiously, try to stay out of the clinch, and pick Muniz apart from the outside while avoiding the ground at all costs. If he can execute that strategy then he should be able to win a low-volume decision and also has a slight chance of landing a knockout. However, Muniz will be looking to close the distance and drag Allen to the mat by any means necessary. We’ve seen other grapplers find success in taking Allen down, making it hard to feel confident in his ability to keep the fight standing. While Allen is a good grappler and a legitimate submission threat in his own right, Muniz has looked like the more dangerous of the two on the mat. The tougher question to answer is whether or not Muniz will be able to submit Allen. There’s no doubt he’s capable of it, but we like Allen’s chances of surviving on the mat and for this to end in a close decision, where the judges are forced to weigh the striking of Allen with the takedowns and control of Muniz. We’ll say Muniz wins in a close decision, but this has the potential to get greasy.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +180.
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DFS Implications:
Muniz is an extremely dangerous submission specialist who’s only required the judges in 4 of his 27 pro fights, although has gone the distance in two of his five UFC matches. He’s won 17 of his last 18 matches and landed three straight first round submissions prior to his recent decision win. His DFS ceiling is somewhat capped by how efficient he is, as he scored 108, 107, and 95 DraftKings points in those three finishes. And in his two decision victories, he returned DraftKings scores of only 92 and 76. That makes it tougher to fully trust him at his high price tag and there are lots of ways he fails to crack winning tournament lineups with a win of any kind. With that said, if he can land another first round submission he has a good shot at putting up a good score and then it will simply come down to whether or not the other high price fighters really go off and outscore him. The last time Muniz fought he was 37% owned at $9,200 on DraftKings, which also makes it tougher to get excited about playing him in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Allen has averaged a respectable 96 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins, with four scores of 102 or more. In his three decision wins that average drops to 82 points and all five of his finishes have come on the mat. While we’ll never rule out Allen doing something stupid, it would make no sense for him to willingly go to the ground against a world class, but one dimensional grappler like Muniz. Allen will have a major striking advantage and his best path to victory will be to come in with a cautious game plan and just pick Muniz apart from distance while avoiding the clinch. However, that’s not a strategy that will score well in DFS, which greatly lowers our interest in playing Allen here. He’s coming off an impressive first round submission win that was good for 107 DraftKings points and we’re hoping the field will chase those results. Despite that also looking like a bad matchup for Allen to score well going in, he was still 35% owned in the fight, so the field is willing to click his name even in bad spots. When you also factor in his cheap price tag, it would be surprising if he came in low owned here, making this another good fade spot. With that said, it’s not entirely impossible that Allen knocks Muniz out, which is how all four of his losses have ended. It’s also possible Allen wins a lower scoring decision and if only a couple of dogs on the card win then he could still serve as a value play. The odds imply Allen has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Nikita Krylov
18th UFC Fight (10-7)Coming off a high-paced decision win over Volkan Oezdemir, Krylov has won two in a row after losing four of his previous six since returning to the UFC in 2018. Both fighters came out aggressive in that recent match and Oezdemir looked to have Krylov hurt early on. Krylov responded by looking to wrestle, which slowed Oezdemir down and gave Krylov the time he needed to recover. Both guys tired after the first round and Krylov was able to outgrapple his way to a decision win as he landed 7 of his 20 takedown attempts with over nine minutes in control time.
Krylov originally joined the UFC in 2013, but following a 2016 first round submission loss to Misha Cirkunov, Krylov parted ways with the UFC and fought his next four fights outside of the organization, before returning in 2018. While two of his last three fights have ended in round one (1-1), he’s gone the distance in four of his last six, and seven of his last nine have made it to round two. Prior to his recent win over Oezdemir, Krylov knocked out a washed up Alexander Gustafsson in the first round, after getting submitted in round one by Paul Craig. Krylov’s other three most recent losses came in a pair of three-round decisions to Magomed Ankalaev and Glover Teixeira, and a second round submission against Jan Blachowicz. So he hasn’t been losing to bums.
Now 29-9 as a pro, Krylov has 12 KOs, 15 submissions, and two decision wins. He’s only been knocked out once in 38 pro fights, which was in the third round of his 2013 UFC debut up at Heavyweight, but he’s been submitted six times, and has two decision losses. All six of his submission losses ended in the first two rounds, with five coming in round one. Overall, 34 of his 38 pro fights have ended early (89%), but all four of the decisions he’s been to have occurred in his last six matches. Seven of his last nine fights have made it out of the first round, after 25 of his first 29 pro fights ended in round one. Krylov started his career at Heavyweight, before dropping down to 205 lb for his third UFC fight following a 2014 R1 KO win over Walt Harris.
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Krylov’s career, but his first in the UFC. Just before he rejoined the UFC in 2018, Krylov won a pair of fights that were scheduled to go five-rounds with a pair of knockouts in the first two rounds. So he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes.
Overall, Krylov is a black belt in Kyokushin Karate and a Ukrainian Master of Sports in Army hand-to-hand combat and submission fighting. He’s a solid grappler and powerful striker, who averages 4.45 SSL/min and 2.1 TDL/15 min. He tends to start strong but tire out later in fights, with all 27 of his early wins coming in the first two rounds. He’s just 2-3 in fights that have lasted longer than 10 minutes. While he’s still just 30 years old, with 38 pro fights under his belt he has a lot of wear and tear on his body.
Ryan Spann
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Fresh off a first round knockout win over Dominick Reyes, Spann has won two in a row and three of his last four, with his last five fights all ending in under four minutes. The last time he saw the second round was in May 2020 when he won a split decision over Sam Alvey. That win brough Spann to 4-0 in the UFC at the time, but he then got knocked out in the first round of his next fight against Johnny Walker. Spann bounced back with a first round knockout win of his own against Misha Cirkunov, before getting submitted in the first round by Anthony Smith. Spann once again returned the favor in his next match, landing a first round submission against Ion Cutelaba, leading up to his recent win over Reyes. Spann originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2017, but got finished by Karl Roberson in just 15 seconds and was forced to return to the LFA before going back on DWCS in 2018 and landing a first round submission win in just 26 seconds to secure a contract.
Now 21-7 as a pro, Spann has six wins by KO, 12 by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted twice, and has lost two decisions. All nine of his fights to end in knockouts (6-3) have ended in the first round, as have 10 of his 12 submission wins and one of his two submission losses. He’s had two fights end in second round submissions (1-1), while the only time we’ve seen a finish in one of his fights beyond the eight minute mark was in a 2015 R3 submission win in his seventh pro fight. Nine of his 12 submission wins have come by guillotine, while he also has three by rear-naked choke. Overall, 20 of his 28 pro fights have ended in the first five minutes (71.4%). Thirteen of his last 15 fights have ended early, with 12 of those ending in R1. While six of his nine UFC fights have ended in round one, two of his three to see the second round ultimately went the distance. Spann fought at 185 lb early in his career before moving up to 205 lb later on.
This will be the 7th five-round fight of Spann’s career, but just his second in the UFC, with the other ending in a 2021 first round submission loss to Anthony Smith. Prior to joining the UFC, Spann went 2-3 in five-round fights, with a 2014 decision win, a 2014 R1 KO loss, a 2015 decision loss, a 2016 R2 submission loss, and a 2018 R1 KO win. The first three of those were when Spann was still fighting at 185 lb, and none of his 205 lb five-round fights have made it past the second round.
Overall, Spann is constantly looking to end fights early either through striking or submissions (typically by guillotine). He’s also been prone to getting finished quickly himself, with his last three losses all ending in under four minutes. In fights that have lasted longer than a round, we’ve seen him slow down late and he barely hung on to win a split decision against Sam Alvey in 2020. While he’s an aggressive fighter, he still only averages 3.42 SSL/min and 1.5 TDL/15 min, and he’s failed to land a takedown in his last four fights on just two attempts. In his nine UFC fights and DWCS appearance, Spann has been taken down 9 times on 18 opponent attempts (50% defense). Only one of his last six opponents even tried to take him down, which was Ion Cutelaba, who landed all three of his attempts but then got submitted via guillotine, which Spann had been looking for throughout the fight. Spann missed weight for his last fight by less than a pound, and is generally a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins. However, we often see him look bad at weigh-ins and still perform okay, so you have to be careful reading too much into how he looks at weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Spann will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
Expect fireworks early on in this one between two fighters who are the most dangerous in round one and come out of the gates firing. We give the power advantage to Spann, while Krylov is the better wrestler. However, that wrestling advantage could very well get Krylov into trouble, as Spann has a nasty guillotine choke that he consistently looks for when opponents try to take him down, which is how he’s finished 9 of his 12 career submission wins. We’ve seen Krylov get hurt or tired and immediately shoot for somewhat sloppy takedowns without setting them up first and that should give Spann the perfect opportunity to wrap up his neck. Spann also has the power to knock Krylov out, just keep in mind that Krylov has been submitted six times but has only been knocked out once in 38 pro fights, which was in the third round of his 2013 UFC debut up at Heavyweight. Both of these fighters are prone to gassing out and if we don’t see a finish in the first two rounds the winner will likely be determined by who has the better cardio. Krylov has shown the ability to continue to wrestle even when he does look exhausted, so we’ll give the advantage to him if this fight makes it to the third round, but we like it to end before it makes it that far. We’re going with the underdog here in Spann and we’ll say he locks up another guillotine in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “Spann R1 SUB” at +1000.
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DFS Implications:
Krylov has averaged 114 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins with at least 97 in all of those and 105 or more in nine of them. All but two of his 29 career wins have come early, with all 27 of those finishes coming in the first two rounds. Now he’ll face an aggressive opponent in Spann who’s been finished in five of his seven pro losses and this fight is unlikely to require the judges. Krylov offers a solid combination of striking and wrestling and we saw him attempt a ridiculous 20 takedowns in his recent three-round decision win, landing seven of those. However, while Spann has just a 50% takedown defense, he has a nasty guillotine choke that Krylov will need to watch out for every time he looks to shoot. Spann also has a ton of power in his striking so Krylov will be at risk of getting finished anywhere the fight goes. However, 16 of Spann’s 18 career finishes have come in the first round and he slows down later in fights. So if Krylov can survive the opening round and not gas out as hard as Spann in the later rounds, we could see him dominate the fight on the ground. Just keep in mind, neither of these two have very good cardio and it’s funny the UFC would even put them in a five-round fight considering they each struggle to go three rounds. If they both gas out at a similar rate, things could get real sloppy late, but we still give Krylov the advantage the longer this fight lasts. Krylov’s recent grappling-heavy three-round decision win was good for 127 DraftKings points and 101 points on FanDuel. So while that type of smothering victory has a higher ceiling on DraftKings, he can still score well on FanDuel also through sheer takedown numbers. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Spann has been entirely reliant on landing first round finishes to score well in DFS and he totaled just 66 and 63 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins. He also only scored 79 points in a 2019 second round submission victory and his low striking volume (3.42 SSL/min) and questionable cardio make it tougher for him to succeed when he’s unable to get opponents out of there early. However, he’s super dangerous early on and 16 of his 21 career wins have come in the first round. He has solid power and a nasty guillotine that he’s finished nine opponents with and will now be facing an opponent who attempted 20 takedowns in his last fight. That’s a lot of opportunities to look for a guillotine if Krylov approaches this fight similarly. We also saw Krylov get hurt on the feet early in his last match and Spann is coming off a violent first round knockout win, albeit over the corpse of Dominick Reyes. However, while Spann has multiple ways to find an early finish, he has questionable cardio and has only finished two opponents in the later rounds, both by guillotine. Guillotine finishes already struggle to score as well as most other finishing methods because they generally don’t include a knockdown or takedown. While Spann’s cheaper price tag likely means he can get away with that in the first round, a later round guillotine victory could easily not be enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups, and he only scored 79 points in a 2019 second round guillotine win. That’s not to say it’s impossible for him to put up a useful score with a later round finish, but it’s definitely less likely. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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